funky0612的个人主页 - 老虎社区

funky0612

funky0612

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

23关注

1粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-12-23

Yes

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-30

Tesla 😱😱😱

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-27

Yes Palantir!!!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-26

Cool

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-18

😎cool

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-15

Wow

Opinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在任何股市反弹都会很快</blockquote>

2021-04-12

Interesting

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-07

Interesting

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-07

Really ?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-23

Semicon!!!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-17

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-09

👍🏻

2 More Reasons To Buy Apple Stock On The Dip<blockquote>逢低买入苹果股票的另外 2 个理由</blockquote>

2021-03-05

🥺

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-04

Sell?!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-04

[龇牙]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-02

[财迷]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-01

[惊讶]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-26

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-24

Go go

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-23

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3570505106221155","uuid":"3570505106221155","gmtCreate":1607449192418,"gmtModify":1611758278482,"name":"funky0612","pinyin":"funky0612","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":23,"tweetSize":32,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.06.02","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":691484133,"gmtCreate":1640228159929,"gmtModify":1640228169602,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691484133","repostId":"2193113147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":137257691,"gmtCreate":1622354513713,"gmtModify":1634102080225,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tesla 😱😱😱","listText":"Tesla 😱😱😱","text":"Tesla 😱😱😱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137257691","repostId":"2138765488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132404975,"gmtCreate":1622104274097,"gmtModify":1634183814456,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes Palantir!!!","listText":"Yes Palantir!!!","text":"Yes Palantir!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/132404975","repostId":"1156279615","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136607068,"gmtCreate":1622011223854,"gmtModify":1634184678760,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136607068","repostId":"1130362459","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195757467,"gmtCreate":1621320170059,"gmtModify":1634192468127,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😎cool","listText":"😎cool","text":"😎cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195757467","repostId":"2136963139","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196667513,"gmtCreate":1621049893532,"gmtModify":1634194288449,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196667513","repostId":"1111018641","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111018641","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621000588,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1111018641?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-14 21:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在任何股市反弹都会很快</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111018641","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.\n\nContrarian investors suspect th","content":"<p>  <b>Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.</b>  Contrarian investors suspect that the stock market’s recent decline has run its course — for now.</p><p><blockquote><b>市场计时器与多头一起运行，但很快就会转为看跌。</b>反向投资者怀疑，目前股市近期的下跌已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because these market timers, especially those who focus on the NasdaqNDX,1.07%market in particular, have become sufficiently bearish that the short-term path of least resistance has turned up. Still, it’s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为这些市场计时器，尤其是那些关注纳斯达克NDX,1.07%市场的市场计时器，已经变得足够看跌，阻力最小的短期路径已经出现。不过，目前还不清楚任何新的反弹是否会有持久的力量。不排除未来几个月美国市场会出现更严重的下滑。</blockquote></p><p> For now, the recent decline appears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday’s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&amp;P 500SPX,0.98%was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,1.13%was down 7.8%.</p><p><blockquote>就目前而言，以历史标准衡量，最近的跌幅似乎相当温和，甚至小于半官方定义的10%的跌幅。在周四的大幅反弹之前，道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%）已从之前的历史高点3.4%下跌了约1200点。标准普尔 500SPX，0.98%，比高点低 4.0%，纳斯达克综合指数 1.13%，下跌 7.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Consider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as April 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下专注于纳斯达克的市场计时器对这些下跌的反应。从下图可以看出，他们的平均推荐股票敞口（以赫伯特·纳斯达克时事通讯情绪指数（HNNSI）表示）降至负10.7%。这意味着专注于纳斯达克的市场计时器现在建议他们的客户将平均 10.7% 的股票交易投资组合分配给做空。就在4月29日，这一平均暴露水平为正83.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d550f647619d600d419397967f7bb778\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"928\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> That reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits — 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 — 0.3% — in which the HNNSI’s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.</p><p><blockquote>这反映出退出的速度非常快——短短 10 个交易日就下跌了 94.3 个百分点。事实上，在 2000 年以来的 5000 多个交易日中，只有 18 个交易日（0.3%）HNNSI 在过去 10 天的跌幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> To appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month’s time.</p><p><blockquote>要理解这一点的逆向意义，请考虑一下，在过去几次 HNNSI 下跌幅度如此之大、速度如此之快之后，纳斯达克综合指数在一个月内平均上涨了 5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Why, then, haven’t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI’s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么逆向投资者没有变得更加看涨呢？答案在图表中也很明显： HNNSI 在过去 10 天里的暴跌远远低于过度看跌区域，该区域被定义为历史分布的底部 10%。该区域由图表底部的米色阴影框表示。</blockquote></p><p> The last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market’s “wall of worry” became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.</p><p><blockquote>HNNSI上一次陷入该区域是在2020年3月。就在那时，市场的 “担忧之墙 ”变得异常坚固，并能够支撑令人印象深刻的反弹。今天的墙没有那么坚固了。</blockquote></p><p> The sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.</p><p><blockquote>最近的数据描绘的情绪图景表明，市场计时器很乐意触发。当市场上涨时，他们会迅速加入看涨行列，然后当市场下跌时，他们会迅速加入看跌行列。因此，上涨和下跌往往都是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> A longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally’s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we’ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally — while it lasts.</p><p><blockquote>要想持续更长时间的反弹，市场计时器需要更加极端的看跌情绪，并在反弹初期上涨后顽固地保持看跌情绪。除非发生这种情况，否则市场本身很可能会遭受比我们最近几天经历的更严重的下跌。与此同时，享受这场集会吧——趁它还在继续。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在任何股市反弹都会很快</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在任何股市反弹都会很快</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-14 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.</b>  Contrarian investors suspect that the stock market’s recent decline has run its course — for now.</p><p><blockquote><b>市场计时器与多头一起运行，但很快就会转为看跌。</b>反向投资者怀疑，目前股市近期的下跌已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because these market timers, especially those who focus on the NasdaqNDX,1.07%market in particular, have become sufficiently bearish that the short-term path of least resistance has turned up. Still, it’s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为这些市场计时器，尤其是那些关注纳斯达克NDX,1.07%市场的市场计时器，已经变得足够看跌，阻力最小的短期路径已经出现。不过，目前还不清楚任何新的反弹是否会有持久的力量。不排除未来几个月美国市场会出现更严重的下滑。</blockquote></p><p> For now, the recent decline appears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday’s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&amp;P 500SPX,0.98%was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,1.13%was down 7.8%.</p><p><blockquote>就目前而言，以历史标准衡量，最近的跌幅似乎相当温和，甚至小于半官方定义的10%的跌幅。在周四的大幅反弹之前，道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%）已从之前的历史高点3.4%下跌了约1200点。标准普尔 500SPX，0.98%，比高点低 4.0%，纳斯达克综合指数 1.13%，下跌 7.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Consider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as April 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下专注于纳斯达克的市场计时器对这些下跌的反应。从下图可以看出，他们的平均推荐股票敞口（以赫伯特·纳斯达克时事通讯情绪指数（HNNSI）表示）降至负10.7%。这意味着专注于纳斯达克的市场计时器现在建议他们的客户将平均 10.7% 的股票交易投资组合分配给做空。就在4月29日，这一平均暴露水平为正83.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d550f647619d600d419397967f7bb778\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"928\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> That reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits — 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 — 0.3% — in which the HNNSI’s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.</p><p><blockquote>这反映出退出的速度非常快——短短 10 个交易日就下跌了 94.3 个百分点。事实上，在 2000 年以来的 5000 多个交易日中，只有 18 个交易日（0.3%）HNNSI 在过去 10 天的跌幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> To appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month’s time.</p><p><blockquote>要理解这一点的逆向意义，请考虑一下，在过去几次 HNNSI 下跌幅度如此之大、速度如此之快之后，纳斯达克综合指数在一个月内平均上涨了 5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Why, then, haven’t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI’s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么逆向投资者没有变得更加看涨呢？答案在图表中也很明显： HNNSI 在过去 10 天里的暴跌远远低于过度看跌区域，该区域被定义为历史分布的底部 10%。该区域由图表底部的米色阴影框表示。</blockquote></p><p> The last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market’s “wall of worry” became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.</p><p><blockquote>HNNSI上一次陷入该区域是在2020年3月。就在那时，市场的 “担忧之墙 ”变得异常坚固，并能够支撑令人印象深刻的反弹。今天的墙没有那么坚固了。</blockquote></p><p> The sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.</p><p><blockquote>最近的数据描绘的情绪图景表明，市场计时器很乐意触发。当市场上涨时，他们会迅速加入看涨行列，然后当市场下跌时，他们会迅速加入看跌行列。因此，上涨和下跌往往都是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> A longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally’s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we’ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally — while it lasts.</p><p><blockquote>要想持续更长时间的反弹，市场计时器需要更加极端的看跌情绪，并在反弹初期上涨后顽固地保持看跌情绪。除非发生这种情况，否则市场本身很可能会遭受比我们最近几天经历的更严重的下跌。与此同时，享受这场集会吧——趁它还在继续。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-any-stock-market-rally-right-now-will-be-quick-11620958836?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-any-stock-market-rally-right-now-will-be-quick-11620958836?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111018641","content_text":"Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.\n\nContrarian investors suspect that the stock market’s recent decline has run its course — for now.\nThat’s because these market timers, especially those who focus on the NasdaqNDX,1.07%market in particular, have become sufficiently bearish that the short-term path of least resistance has turned up. Still, it’s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.\nFor now, the recent decline appears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday’s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&P 500SPX,0.98%was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,1.13%was down 7.8%.\nConsider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as April 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.\n\nThat reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits — 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 — 0.3% — in which the HNNSI’s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.\nTo appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month’s time.\nWhy, then, haven’t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI’s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.\nThe last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market’s “wall of worry” became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.\nThe sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.\nA longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally’s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we’ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally — while it lasts.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342170694,"gmtCreate":1618193541718,"gmtModify":1634294508301,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Interesting&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting&nbsp;","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342170694","repostId":"1130321704","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341126483,"gmtCreate":1617795741642,"gmtModify":1634296475309,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341126483","repostId":"1120726818","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341126816,"gmtCreate":1617795711235,"gmtModify":1634296475429,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Really ?","listText":"Really ?","text":"Really ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341126816","repostId":"2125744665","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353022423,"gmtCreate":1616434617262,"gmtModify":1634525830896,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Semicon!!!","listText":"Semicon!!!","text":"Semicon!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353022423","repostId":"1155582622","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324375418,"gmtCreate":1615970139334,"gmtModify":1703495673810,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324375418","repostId":"1158940318","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323943930,"gmtCreate":1615301023120,"gmtModify":1703487008810,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323943930","repostId":"1129681722","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129681722","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615295680,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129681722?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-09 21:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 More Reasons To Buy Apple Stock On The Dip<blockquote>逢低买入苹果股票的另外 2 个理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129681722","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple has had its worst day of trading since October, and shares could soon enter bear market territ","content":"<p>Apple has had its worst day of trading since October, and shares could soon enter bear market territory. However, two price patterns suggest that this could be a good time to buy the stock.</p><p><blockquote>苹果经历了10月份以来最糟糕的交易日，股市可能很快就会进入熊市区域。然而，两种价格模式表明，这可能是购买该股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, March 8, Apple stock had its worst day of trading since October 2020: down 4.2%, despite lack of company-specific news. My fears over the&nbsp;market cap dipping below $2 trillionfor the first time since November were also confirmed, maybe more quickly than I could have anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>3 月 8 日星期一，苹果股价遭遇了自 2020 年 10 月以来最糟糕的交易日：尽管缺乏公司特定新闻，但仍下跌 4.2%。我对市值自 11 月以来首次跌破 2 万亿美元的担忧也得到了证实，也许比我预期的要快。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock is now nearly 19% off the peak of less than 30 trading days ago, and one inch away from bear territory. Investors must be feeling uneasy about holding shares during this uncomfortable pullback.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价目前较不到 30 个交易日前的峰值下跌了近 19%，距离熊市仅一英寸。在这次令人不安的回调期间，投资者一定对持有股票感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> But I believe that shareholders also have reasons to be optimistic.</p><p><blockquote>但我相信股东们也有理由感到乐观。</blockquote></p><p> <b>History says: buy Apple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>历史告诉我们：购买苹果</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course, a successful investment in Apple depends primarily on the company performing well and delivering above-consensus financial results going forward. In that regard, Apple’s business seems to be in very good shape, at least judging by&nbsp;the company’s most recent earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>当然，对苹果的成功投资主要取决于公司未来的良好表现和高于共识的财务业绩。在这方面，苹果的业务似乎非常好，至少从公司最近的财报来看是这样。</blockquote></p><p> So, I turn away from business fundamentals for now and focus on price action. Historically, the best strategy has been&nbsp;to buy Apple when it is well off its peak. Recently, I came across yet another piece of evidence to support this idea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我暂时远离商业基本面，专注于价格走势。从历史上看，最好的策略是在苹果远离巅峰时买入它。最近，我发现了另一条支持这一观点的证据。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past five years, Apple stock has produced monthly returns that have swung from a low of -18% in November 2018 to a high of 21% in August 2020. Although it may be hard to anticipate with much precision when the stock will perform best, there seems to be somewhat of a pattern.</p><p><blockquote>过去五年，苹果股票的月回报率从 2018 年 11 月的低点 -18% 波动到 2020 年 8 月的高点 21%。尽管可能很难准确预测该股何时表现最佳，但似乎存在某种模式。</blockquote></p><p> The graph below shows that steeper monthly losses in Apple shares tend to be followed by periods of strong stock performance. Notice the dotted arrows:</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，苹果股票每月大幅亏损后往往会出现强劲的股票表现。请注意虚线箭头：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45802af85db02f208dc6687c52dd4a63\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Stock Rover</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>股票漫游者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Below are some numbers to help illustrate the point.</p><p><blockquote>下面是一些数字来帮助说明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Since 2016, Apple has produced an average three-month return of 3.5%, with worst decline of -11% in the fourth quarter of 2018. But an investor who waited to buy shares only after two months of material losses (defined here as -3%) in the previous three periods earned an average three-month return that was nearly twice as high, at 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>自2016年以来，苹果平均三个月回报率为3.5%，跌幅最差的是2018年第四季度-11%。但一位投资者在前三个时期遭受两个月重大损失（此处定义为-3%）后才等待购买股票，其三个月平均回报率几乎是其两倍，达到 6.7%。</blockquote></p><p> March is shaping up to be a bad month for Apple, after January saw shares tank and February failed to impress. Judging only by the pattern described above, this could be a good time to jump in.</p><p><blockquote>继一月份股市暴跌和二月份表现不佳之后，三月份对苹果来说将是糟糕的一个月。仅从上述模式来看，这可能是一个介入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Calendar pattern says: buy Apple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日历图案显示：购买苹果</b></blockquote></p><p> The second reason to buy Apple now has to do with annual patterns in stock returns. The graph below tells a compelling story.</p><p><blockquote>现在购买苹果的第二个原因与股票回报的年度模式有关。下图讲述了一个引人注目的故事。</blockquote></p><p> Notice that the average monthly gains in Apple shares over the past five years have been best in the summer months of July and August. Prior to this period, the returns improve slowly throughout the spring, as the stock recovers from an underwhelming holiday quarter.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，过去五年苹果股票的平均月涨幅在夏季的七月和八月表现最好。在此之前，随着该股从令人印象深刻的假日季度中恢复过来，整个春季回报率都会缓慢改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/563f095f6d02bf7c530705e701c30e2b\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Stock Rover</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>股票漫游者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is some logic to this pattern. September tends to be the month in which the new iPhone model is announced, a few weeks ahead of Black Friday. At that point, investors have likely already bid up the share price in anticipation for Apple’s “hot season” of sales. Sell-the-news pressures begin to accumulate.</p><p><blockquote>这种模式有一定的逻辑。九月往往是新iPhone型号发布的月份，比黑色星期五早几周。届时，投资者很可能已经抬高了股价，因为他们期待着苹果的 “销售旺季 ”到来。抛售新闻的压力开始累积。</blockquote></p><p> In 2021, something similar could happen. The market’s preference for small-cap value stocks over mega-cap growth ones during a year of economic recovery will eventually fizzle. At that point, chatter about&nbsp;Apple’s iPhone 13 will begin to surface. This could be the moment for Apple shares to finally shine this year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，类似的事情可能会发生。在经济复苏的一年里，市场对小盘价值股相对于大型成长股的偏好最终会失败。届时，关于苹果 iPhone 13 的传闻将开始浮出水面。这可能是苹果股票今年最终大放异彩的时刻。</blockquote></p><p> Those who buy the stock at de-risked prices could benefit from the potential rebound later in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>那些以去风险价格购买该股票的人可能会从 2021 年晚些时候的潜在反弹中受益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 More Reasons To Buy Apple Stock On The Dip<blockquote>逢低买入苹果股票的另外 2 个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 More Reasons To Buy Apple Stock On The Dip<blockquote>逢低买入苹果股票的另外 2 个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-09 21:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple has had its worst day of trading since October, and shares could soon enter bear market territory. However, two price patterns suggest that this could be a good time to buy the stock.</p><p><blockquote>苹果经历了10月份以来最糟糕的交易日，股市可能很快就会进入熊市区域。然而，两种价格模式表明，这可能是购买该股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, March 8, Apple stock had its worst day of trading since October 2020: down 4.2%, despite lack of company-specific news. My fears over the&nbsp;market cap dipping below $2 trillionfor the first time since November were also confirmed, maybe more quickly than I could have anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>3 月 8 日星期一，苹果股价遭遇了自 2020 年 10 月以来最糟糕的交易日：尽管缺乏公司特定新闻，但仍下跌 4.2%。我对市值自 11 月以来首次跌破 2 万亿美元的担忧也得到了证实，也许比我预期的要快。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock is now nearly 19% off the peak of less than 30 trading days ago, and one inch away from bear territory. Investors must be feeling uneasy about holding shares during this uncomfortable pullback.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价目前较不到 30 个交易日前的峰值下跌了近 19%，距离熊市仅一英寸。在这次令人不安的回调期间，投资者一定对持有股票感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> But I believe that shareholders also have reasons to be optimistic.</p><p><blockquote>但我相信股东们也有理由感到乐观。</blockquote></p><p> <b>History says: buy Apple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>历史告诉我们：购买苹果</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course, a successful investment in Apple depends primarily on the company performing well and delivering above-consensus financial results going forward. In that regard, Apple’s business seems to be in very good shape, at least judging by&nbsp;the company’s most recent earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>当然，对苹果的成功投资主要取决于公司未来的良好表现和高于共识的财务业绩。在这方面，苹果的业务似乎非常好，至少从公司最近的财报来看是这样。</blockquote></p><p> So, I turn away from business fundamentals for now and focus on price action. Historically, the best strategy has been&nbsp;to buy Apple when it is well off its peak. Recently, I came across yet another piece of evidence to support this idea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我暂时远离商业基本面，专注于价格走势。从历史上看，最好的策略是在苹果远离巅峰时买入它。最近，我发现了另一条支持这一观点的证据。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past five years, Apple stock has produced monthly returns that have swung from a low of -18% in November 2018 to a high of 21% in August 2020. Although it may be hard to anticipate with much precision when the stock will perform best, there seems to be somewhat of a pattern.</p><p><blockquote>过去五年，苹果股票的月回报率从 2018 年 11 月的低点 -18% 波动到 2020 年 8 月的高点 21%。尽管可能很难准确预测该股何时表现最佳，但似乎存在某种模式。</blockquote></p><p> The graph below shows that steeper monthly losses in Apple shares tend to be followed by periods of strong stock performance. Notice the dotted arrows:</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，苹果股票每月大幅亏损后往往会出现强劲的股票表现。请注意虚线箭头：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45802af85db02f208dc6687c52dd4a63\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Stock Rover</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>股票漫游者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Below are some numbers to help illustrate the point.</p><p><blockquote>下面是一些数字来帮助说明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Since 2016, Apple has produced an average three-month return of 3.5%, with worst decline of -11% in the fourth quarter of 2018. But an investor who waited to buy shares only after two months of material losses (defined here as -3%) in the previous three periods earned an average three-month return that was nearly twice as high, at 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>自2016年以来，苹果平均三个月回报率为3.5%，跌幅最差的是2018年第四季度-11%。但一位投资者在前三个时期遭受两个月重大损失（此处定义为-3%）后才等待购买股票，其三个月平均回报率几乎是其两倍，达到 6.7%。</blockquote></p><p> March is shaping up to be a bad month for Apple, after January saw shares tank and February failed to impress. Judging only by the pattern described above, this could be a good time to jump in.</p><p><blockquote>继一月份股市暴跌和二月份表现不佳之后，三月份对苹果来说将是糟糕的一个月。仅从上述模式来看，这可能是一个介入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Calendar pattern says: buy Apple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>日历图案显示：购买苹果</b></blockquote></p><p> The second reason to buy Apple now has to do with annual patterns in stock returns. The graph below tells a compelling story.</p><p><blockquote>现在购买苹果的第二个原因与股票回报的年度模式有关。下图讲述了一个引人注目的故事。</blockquote></p><p> Notice that the average monthly gains in Apple shares over the past five years have been best in the summer months of July and August. Prior to this period, the returns improve slowly throughout the spring, as the stock recovers from an underwhelming holiday quarter.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，过去五年苹果股票的平均月涨幅在夏季的七月和八月表现最好。在此之前，随着该股从令人印象深刻的假日季度中恢复过来，整个春季回报率都会缓慢改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/563f095f6d02bf7c530705e701c30e2b\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Stock Rover</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>股票漫游者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is some logic to this pattern. September tends to be the month in which the new iPhone model is announced, a few weeks ahead of Black Friday. At that point, investors have likely already bid up the share price in anticipation for Apple’s “hot season” of sales. Sell-the-news pressures begin to accumulate.</p><p><blockquote>这种模式有一定的逻辑。九月往往是新iPhone型号发布的月份，比黑色星期五早几周。届时，投资者很可能已经抬高了股价，因为他们期待着苹果的 “销售旺季 ”到来。抛售新闻的压力开始累积。</blockquote></p><p> In 2021, something similar could happen. The market’s preference for small-cap value stocks over mega-cap growth ones during a year of economic recovery will eventually fizzle. At that point, chatter about&nbsp;Apple’s iPhone 13 will begin to surface. This could be the moment for Apple shares to finally shine this year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，类似的事情可能会发生。在经济复苏的一年里，市场对小盘价值股相对于大型成长股的偏好最终会失败。届时，关于苹果 iPhone 13 的传闻将开始浮出水面。这可能是苹果股票今年最终大放异彩的时刻。</blockquote></p><p> Those who buy the stock at de-risked prices could benefit from the potential rebound later in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>那些以去风险价格购买该股票的人可能会从 2021 年晚些时候的潜在反弹中受益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/2-more-reasons-to-buy-apple-stock-on-the-dip\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/2-more-reasons-to-buy-apple-stock-on-the-dip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129681722","content_text":"Apple has had its worst day of trading since October, and shares could soon enter bear market territory. However, two price patterns suggest that this could be a good time to buy the stock.\nOn Monday, March 8, Apple stock had its worst day of trading since October 2020: down 4.2%, despite lack of company-specific news. My fears over the market cap dipping below $2 trillionfor the first time since November were also confirmed, maybe more quickly than I could have anticipated.\nApple stock is now nearly 19% off the peak of less than 30 trading days ago, and one inch away from bear territory. Investors must be feeling uneasy about holding shares during this uncomfortable pullback.\nBut I believe that shareholders also have reasons to be optimistic.\nHistory says: buy Apple\nOf course, a successful investment in Apple depends primarily on the company performing well and delivering above-consensus financial results going forward. In that regard, Apple’s business seems to be in very good shape, at least judging by the company’s most recent earnings report.\nSo, I turn away from business fundamentals for now and focus on price action. Historically, the best strategy has been to buy Apple when it is well off its peak. Recently, I came across yet another piece of evidence to support this idea.\nOver the past five years, Apple stock has produced monthly returns that have swung from a low of -18% in November 2018 to a high of 21% in August 2020. Although it may be hard to anticipate with much precision when the stock will perform best, there seems to be somewhat of a pattern.\nThe graph below shows that steeper monthly losses in Apple shares tend to be followed by periods of strong stock performance. Notice the dotted arrows:\nStock Rover\nBelow are some numbers to help illustrate the point.\nSince 2016, Apple has produced an average three-month return of 3.5%, with worst decline of -11% in the fourth quarter of 2018. But an investor who waited to buy shares only after two months of material losses (defined here as -3%) in the previous three periods earned an average three-month return that was nearly twice as high, at 6.7%.\nMarch is shaping up to be a bad month for Apple, after January saw shares tank and February failed to impress. Judging only by the pattern described above, this could be a good time to jump in.\nCalendar pattern says: buy Apple\nThe second reason to buy Apple now has to do with annual patterns in stock returns. The graph below tells a compelling story.\nNotice that the average monthly gains in Apple shares over the past five years have been best in the summer months of July and August. Prior to this period, the returns improve slowly throughout the spring, as the stock recovers from an underwhelming holiday quarter.\nStock Rover\nThere is some logic to this pattern. September tends to be the month in which the new iPhone model is announced, a few weeks ahead of Black Friday. At that point, investors have likely already bid up the share price in anticipation for Apple’s “hot season” of sales. Sell-the-news pressures begin to accumulate.\nIn 2021, something similar could happen. The market’s preference for small-cap value stocks over mega-cap growth ones during a year of economic recovery will eventually fizzle. At that point, chatter about Apple’s iPhone 13 will begin to surface. This could be the moment for Apple shares to finally shine this year.\nThose who buy the stock at de-risked prices could benefit from the potential rebound later in 2021.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367364699,"gmtCreate":1614911468311,"gmtModify":1703482873854,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🥺","listText":"🥺","text":"🥺","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367364699","repostId":"2117507788","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364852786,"gmtCreate":1614838243445,"gmtModify":1703481785869,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sell?!","listText":"Sell?!","text":"Sell?!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364852786","repostId":"2116408065","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":975,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364852365,"gmtCreate":1614838208657,"gmtModify":1703481785004,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"[龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364852365","repostId":"2116527026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365989978,"gmtCreate":1614689198694,"gmtModify":1703479886419,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365989978","repostId":"1157813248","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366746254,"gmtCreate":1614567777578,"gmtModify":1703478277472,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366746254","repostId":"1117820997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368725067,"gmtCreate":1614353834059,"gmtModify":1703476875165,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368725067","repostId":"1117820997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363287242,"gmtCreate":1614142786886,"gmtModify":1634551000894,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Go go","listText":"Go go","text":"Go go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363287242","repostId":"2113398351","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369674998,"gmtCreate":1614043747214,"gmtModify":1634551426255,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369674998","repostId":"1155156489","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":137257691,"gmtCreate":1622354513713,"gmtModify":1634102080225,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tesla 😱😱😱","listText":"Tesla 😱😱😱","text":"Tesla 😱😱😱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137257691","repostId":"2138765488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360460850,"gmtCreate":1613966291170,"gmtModify":1634551731226,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Noted&nbsp;","listText":"Noted&nbsp;","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360460850","repostId":"1176686506","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384312901,"gmtCreate":1613614224203,"gmtModify":1634552939501,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384312901","repostId":"1115540467","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":691484133,"gmtCreate":1640228159929,"gmtModify":1640228169602,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691484133","repostId":"2193113147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":196667513,"gmtCreate":1621049893532,"gmtModify":1634194288449,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196667513","repostId":"1111018641","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111018641","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621000588,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1111018641?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-14 21:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在任何股市反弹都会很快</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111018641","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.\n\nContrarian investors suspect th","content":"<p>  <b>Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.</b>  Contrarian investors suspect that the stock market’s recent decline has run its course — for now.</p><p><blockquote><b>市场计时器与多头一起运行，但很快就会转为看跌。</b>反向投资者怀疑，目前股市近期的下跌已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because these market timers, especially those who focus on the NasdaqNDX,1.07%market in particular, have become sufficiently bearish that the short-term path of least resistance has turned up. Still, it’s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为这些市场计时器，尤其是那些关注纳斯达克NDX,1.07%市场的市场计时器，已经变得足够看跌，阻力最小的短期路径已经出现。不过，目前还不清楚任何新的反弹是否会有持久的力量。不排除未来几个月美国市场会出现更严重的下滑。</blockquote></p><p> For now, the recent decline appears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday’s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&amp;P 500SPX,0.98%was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,1.13%was down 7.8%.</p><p><blockquote>就目前而言，以历史标准衡量，最近的跌幅似乎相当温和，甚至小于半官方定义的10%的跌幅。在周四的大幅反弹之前，道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%）已从之前的历史高点3.4%下跌了约1200点。标准普尔 500SPX，0.98%，比高点低 4.0%，纳斯达克综合指数 1.13%，下跌 7.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Consider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as April 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下专注于纳斯达克的市场计时器对这些下跌的反应。从下图可以看出，他们的平均推荐股票敞口（以赫伯特·纳斯达克时事通讯情绪指数（HNNSI）表示）降至负10.7%。这意味着专注于纳斯达克的市场计时器现在建议他们的客户将平均 10.7% 的股票交易投资组合分配给做空。就在4月29日，这一平均暴露水平为正83.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d550f647619d600d419397967f7bb778\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"928\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> That reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits — 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 — 0.3% — in which the HNNSI’s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.</p><p><blockquote>这反映出退出的速度非常快——短短 10 个交易日就下跌了 94.3 个百分点。事实上，在 2000 年以来的 5000 多个交易日中，只有 18 个交易日（0.3%）HNNSI 在过去 10 天的跌幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> To appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month’s time.</p><p><blockquote>要理解这一点的逆向意义，请考虑一下，在过去几次 HNNSI 下跌幅度如此之大、速度如此之快之后，纳斯达克综合指数在一个月内平均上涨了 5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Why, then, haven’t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI’s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么逆向投资者没有变得更加看涨呢？答案在图表中也很明显： HNNSI 在过去 10 天里的暴跌远远低于过度看跌区域，该区域被定义为历史分布的底部 10%。该区域由图表底部的米色阴影框表示。</blockquote></p><p> The last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market’s “wall of worry” became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.</p><p><blockquote>HNNSI上一次陷入该区域是在2020年3月。就在那时，市场的 “担忧之墙 ”变得异常坚固，并能够支撑令人印象深刻的反弹。今天的墙没有那么坚固了。</blockquote></p><p> The sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.</p><p><blockquote>最近的数据描绘的情绪图景表明，市场计时器很乐意触发。当市场上涨时，他们会迅速加入看涨行列，然后当市场下跌时，他们会迅速加入看跌行列。因此，上涨和下跌往往都是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> A longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally’s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we’ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally — while it lasts.</p><p><blockquote>要想持续更长时间的反弹，市场计时器需要更加极端的看跌情绪，并在反弹初期上涨后顽固地保持看跌情绪。除非发生这种情况，否则市场本身很可能会遭受比我们最近几天经历的更严重的下跌。与此同时，享受这场集会吧——趁它还在继续。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在任何股市反弹都会很快</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在任何股市反弹都会很快</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-14 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.</b>  Contrarian investors suspect that the stock market’s recent decline has run its course — for now.</p><p><blockquote><b>市场计时器与多头一起运行，但很快就会转为看跌。</b>反向投资者怀疑，目前股市近期的下跌已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because these market timers, especially those who focus on the NasdaqNDX,1.07%market in particular, have become sufficiently bearish that the short-term path of least resistance has turned up. Still, it’s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为这些市场计时器，尤其是那些关注纳斯达克NDX,1.07%市场的市场计时器，已经变得足够看跌，阻力最小的短期路径已经出现。不过，目前还不清楚任何新的反弹是否会有持久的力量。不排除未来几个月美国市场会出现更严重的下滑。</blockquote></p><p> For now, the recent decline appears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday’s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&amp;P 500SPX,0.98%was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,1.13%was down 7.8%.</p><p><blockquote>就目前而言，以历史标准衡量，最近的跌幅似乎相当温和，甚至小于半官方定义的10%的跌幅。在周四的大幅反弹之前，道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%）已从之前的历史高点3.4%下跌了约1200点。标准普尔 500SPX，0.98%，比高点低 4.0%，纳斯达克综合指数 1.13%，下跌 7.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Consider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as April 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下专注于纳斯达克的市场计时器对这些下跌的反应。从下图可以看出，他们的平均推荐股票敞口（以赫伯特·纳斯达克时事通讯情绪指数（HNNSI）表示）降至负10.7%。这意味着专注于纳斯达克的市场计时器现在建议他们的客户将平均 10.7% 的股票交易投资组合分配给做空。就在4月29日，这一平均暴露水平为正83.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d550f647619d600d419397967f7bb778\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"928\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> That reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits — 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 — 0.3% — in which the HNNSI’s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.</p><p><blockquote>这反映出退出的速度非常快——短短 10 个交易日就下跌了 94.3 个百分点。事实上，在 2000 年以来的 5000 多个交易日中，只有 18 个交易日（0.3%）HNNSI 在过去 10 天的跌幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> To appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month’s time.</p><p><blockquote>要理解这一点的逆向意义，请考虑一下，在过去几次 HNNSI 下跌幅度如此之大、速度如此之快之后，纳斯达克综合指数在一个月内平均上涨了 5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Why, then, haven’t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI’s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么逆向投资者没有变得更加看涨呢？答案在图表中也很明显： HNNSI 在过去 10 天里的暴跌远远低于过度看跌区域，该区域被定义为历史分布的底部 10%。该区域由图表底部的米色阴影框表示。</blockquote></p><p> The last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market’s “wall of worry” became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.</p><p><blockquote>HNNSI上一次陷入该区域是在2020年3月。就在那时，市场的 “担忧之墙 ”变得异常坚固，并能够支撑令人印象深刻的反弹。今天的墙没有那么坚固了。</blockquote></p><p> The sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.</p><p><blockquote>最近的数据描绘的情绪图景表明，市场计时器很乐意触发。当市场上涨时，他们会迅速加入看涨行列，然后当市场下跌时，他们会迅速加入看跌行列。因此，上涨和下跌往往都是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> A longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally’s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we’ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally — while it lasts.</p><p><blockquote>要想持续更长时间的反弹，市场计时器需要更加极端的看跌情绪，并在反弹初期上涨后顽固地保持看跌情绪。除非发生这种情况，否则市场本身很可能会遭受比我们最近几天经历的更严重的下跌。与此同时，享受这场集会吧——趁它还在继续。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-any-stock-market-rally-right-now-will-be-quick-11620958836?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-any-stock-market-rally-right-now-will-be-quick-11620958836?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111018641","content_text":"Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.\n\nContrarian investors suspect that the stock market’s recent decline has run its course — for now.\nThat’s because these market timers, especially those who focus on the NasdaqNDX,1.07%market in particular, have become sufficiently bearish that the short-term path of least resistance has turned up. Still, it’s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.\nFor now, the recent decline appears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday’s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&P 500SPX,0.98%was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,1.13%was down 7.8%.\nConsider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as April 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.\n\nThat reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits — 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 — 0.3% — in which the HNNSI’s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.\nTo appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month’s time.\nWhy, then, haven’t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI’s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.\nThe last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market’s “wall of worry” became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.\nThe sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.\nA longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally’s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we’ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally — while it lasts.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342170694,"gmtCreate":1618193541718,"gmtModify":1634294508301,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Interesting&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting&nbsp;","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342170694","repostId":"1130321704","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353022423,"gmtCreate":1616434617262,"gmtModify":1634525830896,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Semicon!!!","listText":"Semicon!!!","text":"Semicon!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353022423","repostId":"1155582622","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195757467,"gmtCreate":1621320170059,"gmtModify":1634192468127,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😎cool","listText":"😎cool","text":"😎cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195757467","repostId":"2136963139","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341126483,"gmtCreate":1617795741642,"gmtModify":1634296475309,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341126483","repostId":"1120726818","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367364699,"gmtCreate":1614911468311,"gmtModify":1703482873854,"author":{"id":"3570505106221155","authorId":"3570505106221155","name":"funky0612","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa318a8ab3268800c1d8a78026359b1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570505106221155","idStr":"3570505106221155"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🥺","listText":"🥺","text":"🥺","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367364699","repostId":"2117507788","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}