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2021-06-21

Wow.. please comment and like

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2021-05-07

Like n comment please

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2021-03-17

Please reply

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2021-06-26

Buy buy buy

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2021-06-18

Please comment

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2021-07-01

Law of gravity... what goes up must come down

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2021-06-30

Updated thinking ... Crypto shall be part of the investment portfolio

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2021-06-27

Definitely NIO

Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>

2021-05-29

Hope you get rich... please like and comment

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2021-06-11

Please like & comment...

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Hope u get rich..","listText":"Hi please like. Hope u get rich..","text":"Hi please like. 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Crypto shall be part of the investment portfolio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153591555","repostId":"1153621389","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124444576,"gmtCreate":1624785773095,"gmtModify":1631892239545,"author":{"id":"3570714497701433","authorId":"3570714497701433","name":"YFN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259fa239267ecbaa9843d8c2f2bb541a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570714497701433","idStr":"3570714497701433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Definitely NIO","listText":"Definitely NIO","text":"Definitely NIO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124444576","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125438719,"gmtCreate":1624684560131,"gmtModify":1631892239550,"author":{"id":"3570714497701433","authorId":"3570714497701433","name":"YFN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259fa239267ecbaa9843d8c2f2bb541a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570714497701433","idStr":"3570714497701433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy buy buy","listText":"Buy buy buy","text":"Buy buy 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please comment and like&nbsp;","listText":"Wow.. please comment and like&nbsp;","text":"Wow.. please comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164796335","repostId":"2145702479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162707892,"gmtCreate":1624074482416,"gmtModify":1631892239562,"author":{"id":"3570714497701433","authorId":"3570714497701433","name":"YFN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259fa239267ecbaa9843d8c2f2bb541a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570714497701433","idStr":"3570714497701433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment.... hope you get Rich!!!!!","listText":"Please like and comment.... hope you get Rich!!!!!","text":"Please like and comment.... hope you get Rich!!!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162707892","repostId":"1156696708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166244660,"gmtCreate":1624014580850,"gmtModify":1634024116452,"author":{"id":"3570714497701433","authorId":"3570714497701433","name":"YFN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259fa239267ecbaa9843d8c2f2bb541a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570714497701433","idStr":"3570714497701433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please comment","listText":"Please comment","text":"Please comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166244660","repostId":"2144775855","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186972927,"gmtCreate":1623471371669,"gmtModify":1634032684901,"author":{"id":"3570714497701433","authorId":"3570714497701433","name":"YFN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259fa239267ecbaa9843d8c2f2bb541a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570714497701433","idStr":"3570714497701433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Indeed","listText":"Indeed","text":"Indeed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186972927","repostId":"1147474880","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147474880","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623470168,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147474880?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147474880","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless ris","content":"<p>  Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.  I’ve had it.</p><p><blockquote>了解投机和投资之间的区别对于避免鲁莽风险至关重要。我受够了。</blockquote></p><p> The Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.</p><p><blockquote>关于金融最基本的区别之一，《华尔街日报》是错误的，而且几十年来一直是错误的。我再也受不了了。</blockquote></p><p> If you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.</p><p><blockquote>如果你购买一只股票纯粹是因为它上涨了很多，而没有对其进行任何研究，那么你就不是——正如《华尔街日报》及其编辑奇怪地坚持这样称呼你的那样——“投资者”。如果你购买加密货币是因为，嘿，这听起来很有趣，你也不是投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Whenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.</p><p><blockquote>每当你购买任何金融资产是因为你有一个只是为了好玩，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传它，而其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。</blockquote></p><p> You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.</p><p><blockquote>你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你付出更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> Of course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%<i>are</i>investors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有些人购买像GameStopCorp.GME 5.88%这样的模因股票<i>是</i>投资者。他们阅读公司的财务报表，研究基础业务的健康状况，并了解还有谁在做空股票。同样，许多数字硬币的买家也投入了时间和精力来了解加密货币的工作原理以及它如何重塑金融。</blockquote></p><p> An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.</p><p><blockquote>投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。</blockquote></p><p> The word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.</p><p><blockquote>投资者这个词来自拉丁语“investire”，意思是穿着或打扮自己，包围或包围。你永远不会在不知道衣服是什么颜色或由什么材料制成的情况下穿衣服。同样，你不能投资你一无所知的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，《华尔街日报》及其编辑长期以来一直将几乎所有购买任何东西的人称为“投资者”。1962年7月12日，《华尔街日报》发表了经典著作《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》的作者本杰明·格雷厄姆写给编辑的一封信。格雷厄姆抱怨说，那年6月，《华尔街日报》发表了一篇文章，标题是“许多小投资者押注进一步下跌，卖空零星股票”。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“根据‘投资’的什么定义，人们可以给那些通过卖空零头在股市上下注的小人物起‘投资者’这个名字呢？”（做空奇数手就是借入并卖出少于100股的股票，押注股票会下跌——无论在当时还是现在，这都是一个昂贵且有风险的赌注。）</blockquote></p><p> “If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”</p><p><blockquote>“如果这些人是投资者，”格雷厄姆问道，“我们应该如何定义‘投机’和‘投机者’？难道目前未能区分投资和投机的做法不仅会对个人，而且会对整个金融界造成严重伤害吗——就像20世纪20年代末那样？”</blockquote></p><p> Graham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆并不是一个认为市场应该是富人专属游乐场的势利小人。他写了《聪明的投资者》，明确的目的是帮助不太富裕的人明智地参与股市。</blockquote></p><p> In that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆在那本书（本专栏就是以其命名的）中说：“彻头彻尾的投机既不违法、不道德，也（对大多数人来说）不会让钱包发胖。”</blockquote></p><p> However, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他警告说，这会带来三种危险：“（1）当你认为自己在投资时进行投机；（2）当你缺乏适当的知识和技能时，认真地投机而不是作为一种消遣；以及（3）冒更多钱的风险投机超出了你的承受能力。”</blockquote></p><p> Most investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者每隔一段时间就会投机一点。就像彩票或偶尔去赛马场或赌场一样，一点点是无害的乐趣。很多都不是。</blockquote></p><p> If you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为你在投机时是在投资，你会将哪怕是短暂的成功归因于技能，即使运气是最可能的解释。这会导致你冒鲁莽的风险。</blockquote></p><p> Take speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.</p><p><blockquote>把投机看得太重，它会变成一种痴迷和上瘾。你变得无法接受你的损失，也无法关注未来超过几分钟。接下来你知道的是，你在篝火上投入了更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> I think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，将交易者和投机者称为“投资者”会将许多新来者推向他们不应该承担的风险和他们无法承受的损失的滑坡。我热切地希望《华尔街日报》及其编辑最终不再使用“投资者”作为任何进行交易的人的默认术语。</blockquote></p><p> “ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”</p><p><blockquote>“‘投资者’在英语中作为一个包罗万象的术语有着悠久的历史，指的是那些投入资本并期望回报的人，无论时间长短，无论他们阅读的投资专栏有多少，”《华尔街日报》财经编辑查尔斯·福雷尔在回应我的投诉时说道。“至少可以追溯到19世纪中叶，‘投资’甚至被用来描述赌马——这种活动与基本面分析的脱节程度肯定不亚于购买狗狗币。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.</p><p><blockquote>我听到了，老板，但我还是认为你错了。《华尔街日报》不可能仅仅因为字典上说我们可以，就说一个休闲赌徒在赛马场“投资”。</blockquote></p><p> Calling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.</p><p><blockquote>将新手投机者称为“投资者”是营销人员助长过度交易的最有力方式之一。</blockquote></p><p> Ina recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的Instagram帖子中，一位名叫拉娜·罗迪斯(Lana Rhoades)的前色情明星穿着——嗯，大部分是穿着——比基尼，举着似乎是格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》。据IMDb.com报道，她主演了《Tushy》和《Make Me Meow》等视频。</blockquote></p><p> In her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.</p><p><blockquote>在她被近180万人“点赞”的帖子中，罗迪斯宣布她将推广一种名为PAWGCoin的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> The currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)</p><p><blockquote>该货币的网站称，这枚硬币是为“那些向发达的后躯致敬的人”准备的。（我得到可靠消息，PAWG代表胖屁股白人女孩。）</blockquote></p><p> PAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.</p><p><blockquote>据追踪此类数字货币的网站Poocoin.io称，自Rhoades女士6月初开始推广PAWGcoin以来，PAWGcoin已上涨约900%。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”</p><p><blockquote>罗迪斯女士在推特上写道“我每天早上也阅读《华尔街日报》”，但记者无法联系到她置评。PAWGcoin的网站鼓励访问者“立即投资”。</blockquote></p><p> In Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.</p><p><blockquote>在罗迪斯的Instagram帖子中，她举着一本打开的《聪明的投资者》，封面是颠倒的。她似乎是闭着眼睛读的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-12 11:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.  I’ve had it.</p><p><blockquote>了解投机和投资之间的区别对于避免鲁莽风险至关重要。我受够了。</blockquote></p><p> The Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.</p><p><blockquote>关于金融最基本的区别之一，《华尔街日报》是错误的，而且几十年来一直是错误的。我再也受不了了。</blockquote></p><p> If you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.</p><p><blockquote>如果你购买一只股票纯粹是因为它上涨了很多，而没有对其进行任何研究，那么你就不是——正如《华尔街日报》及其编辑奇怪地坚持这样称呼你的那样——“投资者”。如果你购买加密货币是因为，嘿，这听起来很有趣，你也不是投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Whenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.</p><p><blockquote>每当你购买任何金融资产是因为你有一个只是为了好玩，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传它，而其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。</blockquote></p><p> You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.</p><p><blockquote>你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你付出更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> Of course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%<i>are</i>investors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有些人购买像GameStopCorp.GME 5.88%这样的模因股票<i>是</i>投资者。他们阅读公司的财务报表，研究基础业务的健康状况，并了解还有谁在做空股票。同样，许多数字硬币的买家也投入了时间和精力来了解加密货币的工作原理以及它如何重塑金融。</blockquote></p><p> An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.</p><p><blockquote>投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。</blockquote></p><p> The word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.</p><p><blockquote>投资者这个词来自拉丁语“investire”，意思是穿着或打扮自己，包围或包围。你永远不会在不知道衣服是什么颜色或由什么材料制成的情况下穿衣服。同样，你不能投资你一无所知的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，《华尔街日报》及其编辑长期以来一直将几乎所有购买任何东西的人称为“投资者”。1962年7月12日，《华尔街日报》发表了经典著作《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》的作者本杰明·格雷厄姆写给编辑的一封信。格雷厄姆抱怨说，那年6月，《华尔街日报》发表了一篇文章，标题是“许多小投资者押注进一步下跌，卖空零星股票”。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“根据‘投资’的什么定义，人们可以给那些通过卖空零头在股市上下注的小人物起‘投资者’这个名字呢？”（做空奇数手就是借入并卖出少于100股的股票，押注股票会下跌——无论在当时还是现在，这都是一个昂贵且有风险的赌注。）</blockquote></p><p> “If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”</p><p><blockquote>“如果这些人是投资者，”格雷厄姆问道，“我们应该如何定义‘投机’和‘投机者’？难道目前未能区分投资和投机的做法不仅会对个人，而且会对整个金融界造成严重伤害吗——就像20世纪20年代末那样？”</blockquote></p><p> Graham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆并不是一个认为市场应该是富人专属游乐场的势利小人。他写了《聪明的投资者》，明确的目的是帮助不太富裕的人明智地参与股市。</blockquote></p><p> In that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆在那本书（本专栏就是以其命名的）中说：“彻头彻尾的投机既不违法、不道德，也（对大多数人来说）不会让钱包发胖。”</blockquote></p><p> However, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他警告说，这会带来三种危险：“（1）当你认为自己在投资时进行投机；（2）当你缺乏适当的知识和技能时，认真地投机而不是作为一种消遣；以及（3）冒更多钱的风险投机超出了你的承受能力。”</blockquote></p><p> Most investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者每隔一段时间就会投机一点。就像彩票或偶尔去赛马场或赌场一样，一点点是无害的乐趣。很多都不是。</blockquote></p><p> If you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为你在投机时是在投资，你会将哪怕是短暂的成功归因于技能，即使运气是最可能的解释。这会导致你冒鲁莽的风险。</blockquote></p><p> Take speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.</p><p><blockquote>把投机看得太重，它会变成一种痴迷和上瘾。你变得无法接受你的损失，也无法关注未来超过几分钟。接下来你知道的是，你在篝火上投入了更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> I think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，将交易者和投机者称为“投资者”会将许多新来者推向他们不应该承担的风险和他们无法承受的损失的滑坡。我热切地希望《华尔街日报》及其编辑最终不再使用“投资者”作为任何进行交易的人的默认术语。</blockquote></p><p> “ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”</p><p><blockquote>“‘投资者’在英语中作为一个包罗万象的术语有着悠久的历史，指的是那些投入资本并期望回报的人，无论时间长短，无论他们阅读的投资专栏有多少，”《华尔街日报》财经编辑查尔斯·福雷尔在回应我的投诉时说道。“至少可以追溯到19世纪中叶，‘投资’甚至被用来描述赌马——这种活动与基本面分析的脱节程度肯定不亚于购买狗狗币。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.</p><p><blockquote>我听到了，老板，但我还是认为你错了。《华尔街日报》不可能仅仅因为字典上说我们可以，就说一个休闲赌徒在赛马场“投资”。</blockquote></p><p> Calling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.</p><p><blockquote>将新手投机者称为“投资者”是营销人员助长过度交易的最有力方式之一。</blockquote></p><p> Ina recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的Instagram帖子中，一位名叫拉娜·罗迪斯(Lana Rhoades)的前色情明星穿着——嗯，大部分是穿着——比基尼，举着似乎是格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》。据IMDb.com报道，她主演了《Tushy》和《Make Me Meow》等视频。</blockquote></p><p> In her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.</p><p><blockquote>在她被近180万人“点赞”的帖子中，罗迪斯宣布她将推广一种名为PAWGCoin的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> The currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)</p><p><blockquote>该货币的网站称，这枚硬币是为“那些向发达的后躯致敬的人”准备的。（我得到可靠消息，PAWG代表胖屁股白人女孩。）</blockquote></p><p> PAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.</p><p><blockquote>据追踪此类数字货币的网站Poocoin.io称，自Rhoades女士6月初开始推广PAWGcoin以来，PAWGcoin已上涨约900%。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”</p><p><blockquote>罗迪斯女士在推特上写道“我每天早上也阅读《华尔街日报》”，但记者无法联系到她置评。PAWGcoin的网站鼓励访问者“立即投资”。</blockquote></p><p> In Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.</p><p><blockquote>在罗迪斯的Instagram帖子中，她举着一本打开的《聪明的投资者》，封面是颠倒的。她似乎是闭着眼睛读的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147474880","content_text":"Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.\n\nI’ve had it.\nThe Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.\nIf you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.\nWhenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.\nYou’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.\nOf course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%areinvestors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.\nAn investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.\nThe word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.\nNevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”\nHe wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)\n“If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”\nGraham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.\nIn that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”\nHowever, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”\nMost investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.\nIf you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.\nTake speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.\nI think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.\n“ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”\nI hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.\nCalling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.\nIna recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”\nIn her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.\nThe currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)\nPAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.\nMs. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”\nIn Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":732,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181232099,"gmtCreate":1623395487211,"gmtModify":1634033792007,"author":{"id":"3570714497701433","authorId":"3570714497701433","name":"YFN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259fa239267ecbaa9843d8c2f2bb541a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570714497701433","idStr":"3570714497701433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like &amp; comment...","listText":"Please like &amp; comment...","text":"Please like & comment...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181232099","repostId":"1153926665","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180720163,"gmtCreate":1623228025152,"gmtModify":1634035596544,"author":{"id":"3570714497701433","authorId":"3570714497701433","name":"YFN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259fa239267ecbaa9843d8c2f2bb541a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570714497701433","idStr":"3570714497701433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How about wish??","listText":"How about wish??","text":"How about wish??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180720163","repostId":"1154263782","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134752028,"gmtCreate":1622262184864,"gmtModify":1631884326215,"author":{"id":"3570714497701433","authorId":"3570714497701433","name":"YFN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259fa239267ecbaa9843d8c2f2bb541a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570714497701433","idStr":"3570714497701433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope you get rich... please like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Hope you get rich... please like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Hope you get rich... please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134752028","repostId":"2138948877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194122910,"gmtCreate":1621348734130,"gmtModify":1634192230565,"author":{"id":"3570714497701433","authorId":"3570714497701433","name":"YFN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259fa239267ecbaa9843d8c2f2bb541a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570714497701433","idStr":"3570714497701433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy buy buy","listText":"Buy buy buy","text":"Buy buy buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194122910","repostId":"2136738931","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2136738931","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621318800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2136738931?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-18 14:20","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"JD Logistics launches Hong Kong IPO to raise up to US$3.4 billion<blockquote>京东物流启动香港IPO募资至多34亿美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2136738931","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The logistics arm of Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com started marketing its Hong Kong initial public offering  to retail investors on Monday at a price range of HK$39.36 to HK$43.36 per share, which could see the firm raise as much as HK$26.4 billion  if the deal is priced at the top end.JD Logistics' public offering will run from Monday to Friday. Its shares are expected to begin trading on the Hong Kong bourse's main board on May 28.JD Logistics' offering is expected to be the second multibilli","content":"<p>The logistics arm of Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com started marketing its Hong Kong initial public offering (IPO) to retail investors on Monday at a price range of HK$39.36 to HK$43.36 per share, which could see the firm raise as much as HK$26.4 billion (US$3.4 billion) if the deal is priced at the top end.<a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/mi/ipo?feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>（Click here To apply for the JD Logistics Shares）</b></a><b></b></p><p><blockquote>中国电子商务巨头京东的物流部门周一开始向散户投资者推销其在香港的首次公开募股（IPO），价格范围为每股39.36港元至43.36港元，如果交易定价在最高端，该公司可能会筹集高达264亿港元（34亿美元）。<a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/mi/ipo?feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>（点击此处申请京东物流股份）</b></a><b></b></blockquote></p><p>JD Logistics' public offering will run from Monday to Friday. Its shares are expected to begin trading on the Hong Kong bourse's main board on May 28.</p><p><blockquote>京东物流的公开发行将从周一持续到周五。其股票预计将于5月28日在香港交易所主板开始交易。</blockquote></p><p>JD Logistics plans to sell 609.2 million shares, representing 10 per cent of its enlarged share capital. There is an over-allotment option to sell up to 91.4 million more shares if there is a strong demand.</p><p><blockquote>京东物流计划出售6.092亿股股票，占其扩大后股本的10%。如果需求强劲，则有超额配股权可再出售最多9140万股。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd9320033ea7302952fa2cb6ece8339a\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"464\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Your application must be for a minimum of 100 Hong Kong Offer Shares and in one of the numbers set out in the table. You are required to pay the amount next to the number you select.</p><p><blockquote>阁下的申请必须认购最少100股香港发售股份，并按下表所列其中一个数目认购。您需要支付您选择的号码旁边的金额。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f72efeb4b54a02dbfe728ebb1099dd\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"437\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>JD Logistics' offering is expected to be the second multibillion-dollar IPO on the Hong Kong bourse this year, after Tencent-backed short video platform Kuaishou Technology raised US$6.2 billion in January. The Kuaishou offering was the biggest IPO globally so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>京东物流的发行预计将是今年港交所第二笔数十亿美元的IPO，此前腾讯控股支持的短视频平台快手科技在1月份筹集了62亿美元。快手的发行是今年迄今为止全球最大的IPO。</blockquote></p><p>Eight cornerstone investors have committed to buy a total of US$1.5 billion worth of JD Logistics shares, which would account for about 39 per cent of its global offering if the deal is priced at the top end.</p><p><blockquote>八名基石投资者已承诺购买总价值15亿美元的京东物流股票，如果交易定价为最高端，这将占其全球发行的约39%。</blockquote></p><p>The investors include Softbank, Singapore sovereign wealth fund Temasek Holdings, China Structural Reform Fund and asset managers such as Blackstone, Tiger Global Management and others.</p><p><blockquote>投资者包括软银、新加坡主权财富基金淡马锡控股、中国结构性改革基金以及黑石、老虎环球管理等资产管理公司。</blockquote></p><p>BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs and Haitong International are acting as joint sponsors on the transaction, while UBS is serving as a financial adviser.</p><p><blockquote>美银证券、高盛和海通国际担任此次交易的联席保荐人，瑞银则担任财务顾问。</blockquote></p><p>Assuming the deal is priced at the top end, JD Logistics' market capitalisation would be HK$264.1 billion, valuing it higher than ZTO Express.</p><p><blockquote>假设该交易定价为最高端，京东物流的市值将为2641亿港元，估值高于中通快递。</blockquote></p><p>Shanghai-based ZTO, which counts Alibaba Group Holding as one of its shareholders, had a market capitalisation of HK$180.7 billion when it listed in Hong Kong through a secondary listing last September. Alibaba owns the South China Morning Post.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于上海的中通去年9月通过二次上市在港上市时，市值为1807亿港元，阿里巴巴-SW集团是其股东之一。阿里巴巴-SW拥有《南华早报》。</blockquote></p><p>Investors will be keen to learn more about JD Logistics' plan to churn out a profit. The Beijing-based firm said in its prospectus that it expects a bigger net loss for this year, after racking up losses of 2.8 billion yuan (US$435 million) in 2018, 2.2 billion yuan in 2019 and 4 billion yuan in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将渴望了解更多有关京东物流盈利计划的信息。这家总部位于北京的公司在招股说明书中表示，预计今年的净亏损将更大，此前2018年亏损28亿元人民币（4.35亿美元），2019年亏损22亿元人民币，2020年亏损40亿元人民币。</blockquote></p><p>\"As we currently prioritise growth of our business and expansion of our market share over profitability, there can be significant fluctuations in our profitability profile in the near-to-medium term,\" the company said in its draft prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在招股说明书草案中表示：“由于我们目前将业务增长和市场份额扩大置于盈利能力之上，因此我们的盈利状况在中短期内可能会出现重大波动。”</blockquote></p><p>JD Logistics is seeking to differentiate itself from other players, such as ZTO and Yunda Holding, by touting itself as a technology-driven logistic services provider using autonomous mobile robots, sorting robots and self-driving vehicles to enhance delivery speed and accuracy.</p><p><blockquote>京东物流正在寻求与中通和韵达控股等其他参与者区分开来，将自己标榜为一家技术驱动的物流服务提供商，使用自主移动机器人、分拣机器人和自动驾驶汽车来提高配送速度和准确性。</blockquote></p><p>Pitching the stock sale with a tech angle could help JD Logistics paint a more positive outlook. This is because competition is particularly keen in the express delivery sector, with reports of some newer players offering services at below cost to grab business.</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度推销股票销售可以帮助京东物流描绘更积极的前景。这是因为快递行业的竞争尤其激烈，有报道称一些新参与者以低于成本的价格提供服务来抢占业务。</blockquote></p><p>Over the past three years, the average revenue per parcel for express delivery companies declined by 50 per cent to 60 per cent owing to intensive market competition, according to Charlie Chen, an analyst at China Renaissance.</p><p><blockquote>华兴资本分析师查理·陈(Charlie Chen)表示，过去三年，由于市场竞争激烈，快递公司每个包裹的平均收入下降了50%至60%。</blockquote></p><p>SF Express, China's top delivery service provider, shocked the market this month after it forecast a first-quarter loss of 1.1 billion yuan, triggering a sell-off of its stock. As of Friday's close, its share price in Shanghai was almost halved from its mid-February peak.</p><p><blockquote>中国最大的快递服务提供商顺丰本月震惊市场，此前该公司预测第一季度亏损11亿元人民币，引发了对其股票的抛售。截至周五收盘，其在上海的股价较2月中旬的峰值几乎腰斩。</blockquote></p><p>Five players - ZTO, YTO Express, STO Express, SF Express and Yunda Holding - account for nearly 80 per cent of China's express delivery service market.</p><p><blockquote>中通、圆通快递、申通快递、顺丰快递和韵达控股这五家公司占据了中国快递服务市场近80%的份额。</blockquote></p><p>China is the biggest logistics market in the world in terms of spending, with total logistics spending reaching 14.9 trillion yuan in 2020. That is expected to increase to 19.3 trillion yuan by 2025, according to data from research firm China Insights Consultancy cited in JD Logistics' prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>就支出而言，中国是全球最大的物流市场，2020年物流总支出达到14.9万亿元。京东物流招股说明书中引用的研究公司灼识咨询的数据显示，预计到2025年，这一数字将增至19.3万亿元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JD Logistics launches Hong Kong IPO to raise up to US$3.4 billion<blockquote>京东物流启动香港IPO募资至多34亿美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJD Logistics launches Hong Kong IPO to raise up to US$3.4 billion<blockquote>京东物流启动香港IPO募资至多34亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-18 14:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The logistics arm of Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com started marketing its Hong Kong initial public offering (IPO) to retail investors on Monday at a price range of HK$39.36 to HK$43.36 per share, which could see the firm raise as much as HK$26.4 billion (US$3.4 billion) if the deal is priced at the top end.<a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/mi/ipo?feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>（Click here To apply for the JD Logistics Shares）</b></a><b></b></p><p><blockquote>中国电子商务巨头京东的物流部门周一开始向散户投资者推销其在香港的首次公开募股（IPO），价格范围为每股39.36港元至43.36港元，如果交易定价在最高端，该公司可能会筹集高达264亿港元（34亿美元）。<a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/mi/ipo?feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>（点击此处申请京东物流股份）</b></a><b></b></blockquote></p><p>JD Logistics' public offering will run from Monday to Friday. Its shares are expected to begin trading on the Hong Kong bourse's main board on May 28.</p><p><blockquote>京东物流的公开发行将从周一持续到周五。其股票预计将于5月28日在香港交易所主板开始交易。</blockquote></p><p>JD Logistics plans to sell 609.2 million shares, representing 10 per cent of its enlarged share capital. There is an over-allotment option to sell up to 91.4 million more shares if there is a strong demand.</p><p><blockquote>京东物流计划出售6.092亿股股票，占其扩大后股本的10%。如果需求强劲，则有超额配股权可再出售最多9140万股。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd9320033ea7302952fa2cb6ece8339a\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"464\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Your application must be for a minimum of 100 Hong Kong Offer Shares and in one of the numbers set out in the table. You are required to pay the amount next to the number you select.</p><p><blockquote>阁下的申请必须认购最少100股香港发售股份，并按下表所列其中一个数目认购。您需要支付您选择的号码旁边的金额。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f72efeb4b54a02dbfe728ebb1099dd\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"437\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>JD Logistics' offering is expected to be the second multibillion-dollar IPO on the Hong Kong bourse this year, after Tencent-backed short video platform Kuaishou Technology raised US$6.2 billion in January. The Kuaishou offering was the biggest IPO globally so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>京东物流的发行预计将是今年港交所第二笔数十亿美元的IPO，此前腾讯控股支持的短视频平台快手科技在1月份筹集了62亿美元。快手的发行是今年迄今为止全球最大的IPO。</blockquote></p><p>Eight cornerstone investors have committed to buy a total of US$1.5 billion worth of JD Logistics shares, which would account for about 39 per cent of its global offering if the deal is priced at the top end.</p><p><blockquote>八名基石投资者已承诺购买总价值15亿美元的京东物流股票，如果交易定价为最高端，这将占其全球发行的约39%。</blockquote></p><p>The investors include Softbank, Singapore sovereign wealth fund Temasek Holdings, China Structural Reform Fund and asset managers such as Blackstone, Tiger Global Management and others.</p><p><blockquote>投资者包括软银、新加坡主权财富基金淡马锡控股、中国结构性改革基金以及黑石、老虎环球管理等资产管理公司。</blockquote></p><p>BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs and Haitong International are acting as joint sponsors on the transaction, while UBS is serving as a financial adviser.</p><p><blockquote>美银证券、高盛和海通国际担任此次交易的联席保荐人，瑞银则担任财务顾问。</blockquote></p><p>Assuming the deal is priced at the top end, JD Logistics' market capitalisation would be HK$264.1 billion, valuing it higher than ZTO Express.</p><p><blockquote>假设该交易定价为最高端，京东物流的市值将为2641亿港元，估值高于中通快递。</blockquote></p><p>Shanghai-based ZTO, which counts Alibaba Group Holding as one of its shareholders, had a market capitalisation of HK$180.7 billion when it listed in Hong Kong through a secondary listing last September. Alibaba owns the South China Morning Post.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于上海的中通去年9月通过二次上市在港上市时，市值为1807亿港元，阿里巴巴-SW集团是其股东之一。阿里巴巴-SW拥有《南华早报》。</blockquote></p><p>Investors will be keen to learn more about JD Logistics' plan to churn out a profit. The Beijing-based firm said in its prospectus that it expects a bigger net loss for this year, after racking up losses of 2.8 billion yuan (US$435 million) in 2018, 2.2 billion yuan in 2019 and 4 billion yuan in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将渴望了解更多有关京东物流盈利计划的信息。这家总部位于北京的公司在招股说明书中表示，预计今年的净亏损将更大，此前2018年亏损28亿元人民币（4.35亿美元），2019年亏损22亿元人民币，2020年亏损40亿元人民币。</blockquote></p><p>\"As we currently prioritise growth of our business and expansion of our market share over profitability, there can be significant fluctuations in our profitability profile in the near-to-medium term,\" the company said in its draft prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在招股说明书草案中表示：“由于我们目前将业务增长和市场份额扩大置于盈利能力之上，因此我们的盈利状况在中短期内可能会出现重大波动。”</blockquote></p><p>JD Logistics is seeking to differentiate itself from other players, such as ZTO and Yunda Holding, by touting itself as a technology-driven logistic services provider using autonomous mobile robots, sorting robots and self-driving vehicles to enhance delivery speed and accuracy.</p><p><blockquote>京东物流正在寻求与中通和韵达控股等其他参与者区分开来，将自己标榜为一家技术驱动的物流服务提供商，使用自主移动机器人、分拣机器人和自动驾驶汽车来提高配送速度和准确性。</blockquote></p><p>Pitching the stock sale with a tech angle could help JD Logistics paint a more positive outlook. This is because competition is particularly keen in the express delivery sector, with reports of some newer players offering services at below cost to grab business.</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度推销股票销售可以帮助京东物流描绘更积极的前景。这是因为快递行业的竞争尤其激烈，有报道称一些新参与者以低于成本的价格提供服务来抢占业务。</blockquote></p><p>Over the past three years, the average revenue per parcel for express delivery companies declined by 50 per cent to 60 per cent owing to intensive market competition, according to Charlie Chen, an analyst at China Renaissance.</p><p><blockquote>华兴资本分析师查理·陈(Charlie Chen)表示，过去三年，由于市场竞争激烈，快递公司每个包裹的平均收入下降了50%至60%。</blockquote></p><p>SF Express, China's top delivery service provider, shocked the market this month after it forecast a first-quarter loss of 1.1 billion yuan, triggering a sell-off of its stock. As of Friday's close, its share price in Shanghai was almost halved from its mid-February peak.</p><p><blockquote>中国最大的快递服务提供商顺丰本月震惊市场，此前该公司预测第一季度亏损11亿元人民币，引发了对其股票的抛售。截至周五收盘，其在上海的股价较2月中旬的峰值几乎腰斩。</blockquote></p><p>Five players - ZTO, YTO Express, STO Express, SF Express and Yunda Holding - account for nearly 80 per cent of China's express delivery service market.</p><p><blockquote>中通、圆通快递、申通快递、顺丰快递和韵达控股这五家公司占据了中国快递服务市场近80%的份额。</blockquote></p><p>China is the biggest logistics market in the world in terms of spending, with total logistics spending reaching 14.9 trillion yuan in 2020. That is expected to increase to 19.3 trillion yuan by 2025, according to data from research firm China Insights Consultancy cited in JD Logistics' prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>就支出而言，中国是全球最大的物流市场，2020年物流总支出达到14.9万亿元。京东物流招股说明书中引用的研究公司灼识咨询的数据显示，预计到2025年，这一数字将增至19.3万亿元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"02618":"京东物流"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2136738931","content_text":"The logistics arm of Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com started marketing its Hong Kong initial public offering (IPO) to retail investors on Monday at a price range of HK$39.36 to HK$43.36 per share, which could see the firm raise as much as HK$26.4 billion (US$3.4 billion) if the deal is priced at the top end.（Click here To apply for the JD Logistics Shares）JD Logistics' public offering will run from Monday to Friday. Its shares are expected to begin trading on the Hong Kong bourse's main board on May 28.JD Logistics plans to sell 609.2 million shares, representing 10 per cent of its enlarged share capital. There is an over-allotment option to sell up to 91.4 million more shares if there is a strong demand.Your application must be for a minimum of 100 Hong Kong Offer Shares and in one of the numbers set out in the table. You are required to pay the amount next to the number you select.JD Logistics' offering is expected to be the second multibillion-dollar IPO on the Hong Kong bourse this year, after Tencent-backed short video platform Kuaishou Technology raised US$6.2 billion in January. The Kuaishou offering was the biggest IPO globally so far this year.Eight cornerstone investors have committed to buy a total of US$1.5 billion worth of JD Logistics shares, which would account for about 39 per cent of its global offering if the deal is priced at the top end.The investors include Softbank, Singapore sovereign wealth fund Temasek Holdings, China Structural Reform Fund and asset managers such as Blackstone, Tiger Global Management and others.BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs and Haitong International are acting as joint sponsors on the transaction, while UBS is serving as a financial adviser.Assuming the deal is priced at the top end, JD Logistics' market capitalisation would be HK$264.1 billion, valuing it higher than ZTO Express.Shanghai-based ZTO, which counts Alibaba Group Holding as one of its shareholders, had a market capitalisation of HK$180.7 billion when it listed in Hong Kong through a secondary listing last September. Alibaba owns the South China Morning Post.Investors will be keen to learn more about JD Logistics' plan to churn out a profit. The Beijing-based firm said in its prospectus that it expects a bigger net loss for this year, after racking up losses of 2.8 billion yuan (US$435 million) in 2018, 2.2 billion yuan in 2019 and 4 billion yuan in 2020.\"As we currently prioritise growth of our business and expansion of our market share over profitability, there can be significant fluctuations in our profitability profile in the near-to-medium term,\" the company said in its draft prospectus.JD Logistics is seeking to differentiate itself from other players, such as ZTO and Yunda Holding, by touting itself as a technology-driven logistic services provider using autonomous mobile robots, sorting robots and self-driving vehicles to enhance delivery speed and accuracy.Pitching the stock sale with a tech angle could help JD Logistics paint a more positive outlook. This is because competition is particularly keen in the express delivery sector, with reports of some newer players offering services at below cost to grab business.Over the past three years, the average revenue per parcel for express delivery companies declined by 50 per cent to 60 per cent owing to intensive market competition, according to Charlie Chen, an analyst at China Renaissance.SF Express, China's top delivery service provider, shocked the market this month after it forecast a first-quarter loss of 1.1 billion yuan, triggering a sell-off of its stock. As of Friday's close, its share price in Shanghai was almost halved from its mid-February peak.Five players - ZTO, YTO Express, STO Express, SF Express and Yunda Holding - account for nearly 80 per cent of China's express delivery service market.China is the biggest logistics market in the world in terms of spending, with total logistics spending reaching 14.9 trillion yuan in 2020. That is expected to increase to 19.3 trillion yuan by 2025, according to data from research firm China Insights Consultancy cited in JD Logistics' prospectus.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02618":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194128730,"gmtCreate":1621348699720,"gmtModify":1634192231244,"author":{"id":"3570714497701433","authorId":"3570714497701433","name":"YFN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259fa239267ecbaa9843d8c2f2bb541a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570714497701433","idStr":"3570714497701433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up up","listText":"Up up up","text":"Up up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194128730","repostId":"2135161248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2135161248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621343169,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2135161248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-18 21:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JD.com to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?<blockquote>京东将报告第一季度收益：前景如何？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2135161248","media":"Zacks","summary":"JD.com, Inc. is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 19.\nFor the first quarter, the","content":"<p><b>JD.com, Inc.</b>&nbsp;is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 19.</p><p><blockquote><b>京东公司。</b>计划于5月19日公布2021年第一季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> For the first quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $29.9 billion, indicating an improvement of 44.9% from the year-ago reported figure.</p><p><blockquote>对于第一季度，Zacks对收入的一致预期为299亿美元，比去年同期报告的数字提高了44.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Further, the consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 39 cents per share, indicating a 39.3% rise from the previous-year reported figure.</p><p><blockquote>此外，盈利共识为每股39美分，比上一年报告的数字增长39.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 4.6% in the last reported quarter.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司在上一季度的盈利意外增长了4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>JD.com, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>京东公司。价格和每股收益惊喜</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1fed1c36f6a8ce20878c0d2e594f77c\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>JD.com, Inc. price-eps-surprise | JD.com, Inc. Quote</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>京东公司价格-每股收益-惊喜|京东公司报价</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Factors to Note</b></p><p><blockquote><b>需要注意的关键因素</b></blockquote></p><p> The company’s JD Retail segment, comprising the e-commerce business, is expected to have been the key catalyst in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的京东零售部门（包括电子商务业务）预计将成为第一季度的关键催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> The launch of flagship stores of popular fashion and luxury brands like John Lobb, Stefano Ricci, Vivienne Westwoodon and Anya Hindmarch, among others, on JD.com is likely to have driven customer momentum, which in turn is expected to have aided the performance of JD Retail during the quarter-to-be-reported.</p><p><blockquote>John Lobb、Stefano Ricci、Vivienne Westwoodon和Anya Hindmarch等流行时尚和奢侈品牌在京东上开设旗舰店可能会推动客户势头，预计这反过来将有助于京东零售在待报告季度的表现。</blockquote></p><p> JD retail’s omni-channel initiatives are anticipated to have contributed well to top-line growth of the segment in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>京东零售的全渠道举措预计将为该细分市场第一季度的营收增长做出良好贡献。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the company’s collaboration with Italian luxury brands Prada and MiuMiu, which bolstered its omni-channel efforts, might have been a positive.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司与意大利奢侈品牌Prada和MiuMiu的合作可能是积极的，这加强了其全渠道努力。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, growing momentum of JD health that offers free online medical consultation and online pharmacy retail services is likely to get reflected in the company’s to-be-reported quarter’s results.</p><p><blockquote>此外，京东健康提供免费在线医疗咨询和在线药店零售服务的增长势头可能会反映在该公司即将报告的季度业绩中。</blockquote></p><p> Growing investments in research and development are also likely to have been encouraging for the company in the quarter under review.</p><p><blockquote>在本季度，不断增长的研发投资也可能对该公司来说令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the new businesses segment comprising technology, supply chain and logistics services is expected to have helped it in gaining traction across lower-tier cities in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由技术、供应链和物流服务组成的新业务部门预计将帮助其在第一季度在低线城市获得牵引力。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the well-performing Jingxi Business Group is expected to have aided JD.com’s performance in the lower-tier cities.</p><p><blockquote>此外，表现良好的京西业务集团预计将有助于京东在低线城市的表现。</blockquote></p><p> However, increasing fulfilment, marketing, and research and development expenses are likely to have been major risks to the company’s profitability in the quarter under review.</p><p><blockquote>然而，履行、营销和研发费用的增加可能是公司本季度盈利能力的主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, increasing competitive pressure from Alibaba in the e-commerce market might be reflected in first-quarter results.</p><p><blockquote>此外，阿里巴巴-SW在电子商务市场日益增长的竞争压力可能会反映在第一季度的业绩中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Our Model Says</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们的模型所说的</b></blockquote></p><p> Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for JD.com this time around. The combination of a positiveEarnings ESPand a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with ourEarnings ESP Filter.</p><p><blockquote>我们经过验证的模型并没有最终预测京东这次的盈利会超出预期。正收益ESP和咤克斯排名#1（强力买入）、2（买入）或3（持有）的组合增加了收益超出预期的可能性。但这里的情况并非如此。您可以在使用我们的收益ESP过滤器报告之前发现最值得买入或卖出的股票。</blockquote></p><p> JD.com has an Earnings ESP of -14.83% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), at present.</p><p><blockquote>目前，京东的收益ESP为-14.83%，咤克斯排名第五（强力卖出）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JD.com to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?<blockquote>京东将报告第一季度收益：前景如何？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJD.com to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?<blockquote>京东将报告第一季度收益：前景如何？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Zacks</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-18 21:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>JD.com, Inc.</b>&nbsp;is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 19.</p><p><blockquote><b>京东公司。</b>计划于5月19日公布2021年第一季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> For the first quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $29.9 billion, indicating an improvement of 44.9% from the year-ago reported figure.</p><p><blockquote>对于第一季度，Zacks对收入的一致预期为299亿美元，比去年同期报告的数字提高了44.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Further, the consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 39 cents per share, indicating a 39.3% rise from the previous-year reported figure.</p><p><blockquote>此外，盈利共识为每股39美分，比上一年报告的数字增长39.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 4.6% in the last reported quarter.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司在上一季度的盈利意外增长了4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>JD.com, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>京东公司。价格和每股收益惊喜</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1fed1c36f6a8ce20878c0d2e594f77c\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>JD.com, Inc. price-eps-surprise | JD.com, Inc. Quote</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>京东公司价格-每股收益-惊喜|京东公司报价</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Factors to Note</b></p><p><blockquote><b>需要注意的关键因素</b></blockquote></p><p> The company’s JD Retail segment, comprising the e-commerce business, is expected to have been the key catalyst in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的京东零售部门（包括电子商务业务）预计将成为第一季度的关键催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> The launch of flagship stores of popular fashion and luxury brands like John Lobb, Stefano Ricci, Vivienne Westwoodon and Anya Hindmarch, among others, on JD.com is likely to have driven customer momentum, which in turn is expected to have aided the performance of JD Retail during the quarter-to-be-reported.</p><p><blockquote>John Lobb、Stefano Ricci、Vivienne Westwoodon和Anya Hindmarch等流行时尚和奢侈品牌在京东上开设旗舰店可能会推动客户势头，预计这反过来将有助于京东零售在待报告季度的表现。</blockquote></p><p> JD retail’s omni-channel initiatives are anticipated to have contributed well to top-line growth of the segment in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>京东零售的全渠道举措预计将为该细分市场第一季度的营收增长做出良好贡献。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the company’s collaboration with Italian luxury brands Prada and MiuMiu, which bolstered its omni-channel efforts, might have been a positive.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司与意大利奢侈品牌Prada和MiuMiu的合作可能是积极的，这加强了其全渠道努力。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, growing momentum of JD health that offers free online medical consultation and online pharmacy retail services is likely to get reflected in the company’s to-be-reported quarter’s results.</p><p><blockquote>此外，京东健康提供免费在线医疗咨询和在线药店零售服务的增长势头可能会反映在该公司即将报告的季度业绩中。</blockquote></p><p> Growing investments in research and development are also likely to have been encouraging for the company in the quarter under review.</p><p><blockquote>在本季度，不断增长的研发投资也可能对该公司来说令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the new businesses segment comprising technology, supply chain and logistics services is expected to have helped it in gaining traction across lower-tier cities in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由技术、供应链和物流服务组成的新业务部门预计将帮助其在第一季度在低线城市获得牵引力。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the well-performing Jingxi Business Group is expected to have aided JD.com’s performance in the lower-tier cities.</p><p><blockquote>此外，表现良好的京西业务集团预计将有助于京东在低线城市的表现。</blockquote></p><p> However, increasing fulfilment, marketing, and research and development expenses are likely to have been major risks to the company’s profitability in the quarter under review.</p><p><blockquote>然而，履行、营销和研发费用的增加可能是公司本季度盈利能力的主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, increasing competitive pressure from Alibaba in the e-commerce market might be reflected in first-quarter results.</p><p><blockquote>此外，阿里巴巴-SW在电子商务市场日益增长的竞争压力可能会反映在第一季度的业绩中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Our Model Says</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们的模型所说的</b></blockquote></p><p> Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for JD.com this time around. The combination of a positiveEarnings ESPand a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with ourEarnings ESP Filter.</p><p><blockquote>我们经过验证的模型并没有最终预测京东这次的盈利会超出预期。正收益ESP和咤克斯排名#1（强力买入）、2（买入）或3（持有）的组合增加了收益超出预期的可能性。但这里的情况并非如此。您可以在使用我们的收益ESP过滤器报告之前发现最值得买入或卖出的股票。</blockquote></p><p> JD.com has an Earnings ESP of -14.83% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), at present.</p><p><blockquote>目前，京东的收益ESP为-14.83%，咤克斯排名第五（强力卖出）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1541348/jdcom-jd-to-report-q1-earnings-whats-in-the-cards?art_rec=quote-stock_overview-zacks_news-ID02-txt-1541348\">Zacks</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JD":"京东","09618":"京东集团-SW"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1541348/jdcom-jd-to-report-q1-earnings-whats-in-the-cards?art_rec=quote-stock_overview-zacks_news-ID02-txt-1541348","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135161248","content_text":"JD.com, Inc. is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 19.\nFor the first quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $29.9 billion, indicating an improvement of 44.9% from the year-ago reported figure.\nFurther, the consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 39 cents per share, indicating a 39.3% rise from the previous-year reported figure.\nNotably, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 4.6% in the last reported quarter.\nJD.com, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise\nJD.com, Inc. price-eps-surprise | JD.com, Inc. Quote\nKey Factors to Note\nThe company’s JD Retail segment, comprising the e-commerce business, is expected to have been the key catalyst in the first quarter.\nThe launch of flagship stores of popular fashion and luxury brands like John Lobb, Stefano Ricci, Vivienne Westwoodon and Anya Hindmarch, among others, on JD.com is likely to have driven customer momentum, which in turn is expected to have aided the performance of JD Retail during the quarter-to-be-reported.\nJD retail’s omni-channel initiatives are anticipated to have contributed well to top-line growth of the segment in the first quarter.\nMoreover, the company’s collaboration with Italian luxury brands Prada and MiuMiu, which bolstered its omni-channel efforts, might have been a positive.\nFurthermore, growing momentum of JD health that offers free online medical consultation and online pharmacy retail services is likely to get reflected in the company’s to-be-reported quarter’s results.\nGrowing investments in research and development are also likely to have been encouraging for the company in the quarter under review.\nAdditionally, the new businesses segment comprising technology, supply chain and logistics services is expected to have helped it in gaining traction across lower-tier cities in the first quarter.\nMoreover, the well-performing Jingxi Business Group is expected to have aided JD.com’s performance in the lower-tier cities.\nHowever, increasing fulfilment, marketing, and research and development expenses are likely to have been major risks to the company’s profitability in the quarter under review.\nMoreover, increasing competitive pressure from Alibaba in the e-commerce market might be reflected in first-quarter results.\nWhat Our Model Says\nOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for JD.com this time around. The combination of a positiveEarnings ESPand a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with ourEarnings ESP Filter.\nJD.com has an Earnings ESP of -14.83% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), at present.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09618":0.9,"JD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196974601,"gmtCreate":1621009633603,"gmtModify":1634194569254,"author":{"id":"3570714497701433","authorId":"3570714497701433","name":"YFN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259fa239267ecbaa9843d8c2f2bb541a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570714497701433","idStr":"3570714497701433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like.. thanks in advance&nbsp;","listText":"Please like.. thanks in advance&nbsp;","text":"Please like.. thanks in advance","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196974601","repostId":"2135710626","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104928811,"gmtCreate":1620350910233,"gmtModify":1634205863312,"author":{"id":"3570714497701433","authorId":"3570714497701433","name":"YFN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259fa239267ecbaa9843d8c2f2bb541a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570714497701433","idStr":"3570714497701433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment please","listText":"Like n comment please","text":"Like n comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104928811","repostId":"1115627070","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":164796335,"gmtCreate":1624235588527,"gmtModify":1631892239557,"author":{"id":"3570714497701433","authorId":"3570714497701433","name":"YFN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259fa239267ecbaa9843d8c2f2bb541a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570714497701433","idStr":"3570714497701433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow.. please comment and like&nbsp;","listText":"Wow.. please comment and like&nbsp;","text":"Wow.. please comment and 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comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166244660","repostId":"2144775855","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151729066,"gmtCreate":1625107950155,"gmtModify":1631892239542,"author":{"id":"3570714497701433","authorId":"3570714497701433","name":"YFN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259fa239267ecbaa9843d8c2f2bb541a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570714497701433","idStr":"3570714497701433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Law of gravity... what goes up must come down","listText":"Law of gravity... what goes up must come down","text":"Law of gravity... what goes up must come down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151729066","repostId":"2147818634","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153591555,"gmtCreate":1625031890177,"gmtModify":1631892239544,"author":{"id":"3570714497701433","authorId":"3570714497701433","name":"YFN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259fa239267ecbaa9843d8c2f2bb541a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570714497701433","idStr":"3570714497701433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Updated thinking ...&nbsp;Crypto shall be part of the investment portfolio&nbsp;","listText":"Updated thinking ...&nbsp;Crypto shall be part of the investment portfolio&nbsp;","text":"Updated thinking ... Crypto shall be part of the investment portfolio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153591555","repostId":"1153621389","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124444576,"gmtCreate":1624785773095,"gmtModify":1631892239545,"author":{"id":"3570714497701433","authorId":"3570714497701433","name":"YFN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259fa239267ecbaa9843d8c2f2bb541a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570714497701433","idStr":"3570714497701433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Definitely NIO","listText":"Definitely NIO","text":"Definitely NIO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124444576","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134752028,"gmtCreate":1622262184864,"gmtModify":1631884326215,"author":{"id":"3570714497701433","authorId":"3570714497701433","name":"YFN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259fa239267ecbaa9843d8c2f2bb541a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570714497701433","idStr":"3570714497701433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope you get rich... please like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Hope you get rich... please like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Hope you get rich... please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134752028","repostId":"2138948877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181232099,"gmtCreate":1623395487211,"gmtModify":1634033792007,"author":{"id":"3570714497701433","authorId":"3570714497701433","name":"YFN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259fa239267ecbaa9843d8c2f2bb541a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570714497701433","idStr":"3570714497701433"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like &amp; comment...","listText":"Please like &amp; comment...","text":"Please like & comment...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181232099","repostId":"1153926665","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}