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Geis

Geis

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2021-07-03

Hi

These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners

2021-06-25

Latest

Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity

2021-02-27

Latest

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2021-02-26

Latest

‘This is volatility on steroids’: Four market analysts on GameStop’s monster move

2021-02-24

Latest

The market is getting nervous about Powell’s testimony this week

2021-02-22

Ic

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2021-02-22

Hmm

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2021-02-16

Cool

Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is

2021-02-13

:)

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2021-02-12

Yep

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10:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122056398","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good b","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p>\n<p>That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p>\n<p>To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p>\n<p>Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p>\n<p>As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p>\n<p><b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p>\n<p>As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p>\n<p>Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p>\n<p>For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p>\n<p>The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>\n <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>\n <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>\n <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>\n <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>\n <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>\n <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>\n <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>\n <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>\n <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>\n <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>\n <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>\n <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>\n <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>\n <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-03 10:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.\nThat’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MOS":"美国美盛","ALK":"阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司","GT":"固特异轮胎橡胶公司","RF":"地区金融","SABR":"Sabre Corporation","ADNT":"Adient PLC","OGN":"Organon & Co","LCII":"LCI Industries","MED":"快验保","NEM":"纽曼矿业","PATK":"Patrick Industries","CRMT":"美国汽车行","KBH":"KB Home","ARCB":"ArcBest Corporation"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122056398","content_text":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.\nThat’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.\nTo be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.\nJust the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.\nAs expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.\n\nAlso as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.\nHow to play the short-term reversal in July\nAs is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”\nBecause the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.\nFor anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.\nThe 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&P 500SPX.\n\nAdient PLC ADNT\nAlaska Air Group ALK\nAlliance Data Systems ADS\nAmerica’s Car Mart CRMT\nArcBest ARCB\nGoodyear Tire & Rubber GT\nKB Home KBH\nLCI Industries LCII\nMosaic & Co .MOS\nMedifast MED\nNewmont Corp. NEM\nOrganon & Co. OGN\nPatrick Industries PATK\nRegions Financial RF\nSabre SABR\n\nI also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122330418,"gmtCreate":1624596571034,"gmtModify":1631892211706,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122330418","repostId":"1136202921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136202921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624591759,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136202921?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136202921","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan St","content":"<p><b>Apple Inc.</b>(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown&nbsp;muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant.</p>\n<p><b>The Apple Analyst:</b>Katy Huberty reiterated an Overweight rating on Apple with a $162 price target.</p>\n<p><b>The Apple Takeaways:</b>The incoming call volume on Apple shares is at a low amid investor concerns over a seasonally low&nbsp;period in the iPhone cycle,regulatory risk&nbsp;and difficult comps relative to the COVID-19-driven work-from-home&nbsp;and study-from-home&nbsp;demand, Huberty said in a note.</p>\n<p>Additionally, investors fear&nbsp;a more evolutionary iPhone s-cycle will lead to extended&nbsp;iPhone replacement cycles, the analyst said.</p>\n<p>Revenues will likely decline in 2022, increasing the likelihood of negative estimate revisions, she said.</p>\n<p>\"We recognize these risks but have a more positive outlook,\" Huberty said.</p>\n<p>The dominant bear case narrative now is the iPhone entering a more modest upgrade or \"s\" cycle —&nbsp;a period when iPhone revenue historically declined at a double-digit rate, the analyst said. She forecast a low risk of similar iPhone revenue decline next year.</p>\n<p>This is due to the longer period of iPhone replacement cycle relative to the past, an expansion to Apple's trade-in, financing and installment offers and 5G adoption, which is still in its nascent stage, Huberty said.</p>\n<p>\"Taken together, these factors build confidence that the iPhone 13 cycle will not look like past s-cycles, which is reflected in our updated FY22 iPhone forecast of 231M units,\" the analyst said.</p>\n<p>The June quarter&nbsp;will be stronger than originally expected, as iPhone and iPad builds are tracking ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimate, she said.</p>\n<p>Huberty&nbsp;raised her June quarter revenue and EPS estimates by 3%-5%.</p>\n<p>Apple's catalyst path is more back-end loaded this year, the analyst said.</p>\n<p>The company can drive low-teens annual revenue growth and high-teens annual EPS growth between fiscal years 2020 and 2023, she said.</p>\n<p>\"At24xFV/FCF, we believe the current valuation presents a good long-term buying opportunity.\"</p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-25 11:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant.\nThe Apple Analyst:Katy ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136202921","content_text":"Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant.\nThe Apple Analyst:Katy Huberty reiterated an Overweight rating on Apple with a $162 price target.\nThe Apple Takeaways:The incoming call volume on Apple shares is at a low amid investor concerns over a seasonally low period in the iPhone cycle,regulatory risk and difficult comps relative to the COVID-19-driven work-from-home and study-from-home demand, Huberty said in a note.\nAdditionally, investors fear a more evolutionary iPhone s-cycle will lead to extended iPhone replacement cycles, the analyst said.\nRevenues will likely decline in 2022, increasing the likelihood of negative estimate revisions, she said.\n\"We recognize these risks but have a more positive outlook,\" Huberty said.\nThe dominant bear case narrative now is the iPhone entering a more modest upgrade or \"s\" cycle — a period when iPhone revenue historically declined at a double-digit rate, the analyst said. She forecast a low risk of similar iPhone revenue decline next year.\nThis is due to the longer period of iPhone replacement cycle relative to the past, an expansion to Apple's trade-in, financing and installment offers and 5G adoption, which is still in its nascent stage, Huberty said.\n\"Taken together, these factors build confidence that the iPhone 13 cycle will not look like past s-cycles, which is reflected in our updated FY22 iPhone forecast of 231M units,\" the analyst said.\nThe June quarter will be stronger than originally expected, as iPhone and iPad builds are tracking ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimate, she said.\nHuberty raised her June quarter revenue and EPS estimates by 3%-5%.\nApple's catalyst path is more back-end loaded this year, the analyst said.\nThe company can drive low-teens annual revenue growth and high-teens annual EPS growth between fiscal years 2020 and 2023, she said.\n\"At24xFV/FCF, we believe the current valuation presents a good long-term buying opportunity.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366123678,"gmtCreate":1614414242094,"gmtModify":1703477422530,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366123678","repostId":"1117820997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368821562,"gmtCreate":1614309654756,"gmtModify":1703476167751,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368821562","repostId":"1157194073","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157194073","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614307673,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157194073?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 10:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"‘This is volatility on steroids’: Four market analysts on GameStop’s monster move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157194073","media":"cnbc","summary":"Volatility has struck shares of GameStop once again.\nThe stock closed about 18.5% higher on Thursday","content":"<div>\n<p>Volatility has struck shares of GameStop once again.\nThe stock closed about 18.5% higher on Thursday after a raucous session in which trading was halted multiple times on account of the sharp moves....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/this-is-volatility-on-steroids-four-market-analysts-on-gamestop.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>‘This is volatility on steroids’: Four market analysts on GameStop’s monster move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n‘This is volatility on steroids’: Four market analysts on GameStop’s monster move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-26 10:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/this-is-volatility-on-steroids-four-market-analysts-on-gamestop.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Volatility has struck shares of GameStop once again.\nThe stock closed about 18.5% higher on Thursday after a raucous session in which trading was halted multiple times on account of the sharp moves....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/this-is-volatility-on-steroids-four-market-analysts-on-gamestop.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/this-is-volatility-on-steroids-four-market-analysts-on-gamestop.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1157194073","content_text":"Volatility has struck shares of GameStop once again.\nThe stock closed about 18.5% higher on Thursday after a raucous session in which trading was halted multiple times on account of the sharp moves.GameStop surged by over 100% on Wednesday after the company announced that its chief financial officer would resign.\nJim Cramer, the host of CNBC’s“Mad Money,”said there may be only one way to justify GameStop’s stock price:\n“One of the things ...we saw Square do— initially it seemed ridiculous, but it was OK;PayPal, same thing — is you become a dealer in crypto. Now, last night on the unbelievably goodNvidiacall, as a side note, they talked about March. [They’re] going to have some actual cards just for crypto. It really won’t be important for Nvidia, but it could be important for a place like GameStop. If GameStop were to turn itself into a 5,000-store introduction to crypto, make it so that they sell $1 billion worth of stock ... and buy crypto with it, and then make it so it’s an international gaming place where you win bitcoin, I think you can justify the stock price. I have not been able to come up with anything else, but this works. And it doesn’t have to be bitcoin. We can make it crypto. But turn it into a crypto information palace and you have worldwide games, no latency, you play it and suddenly [GameStop investor and Chewy co-founder] Ryan Cohen — then you may start believing him. Well, the CFOs, they tend not to have bitcoin on their balance sheet. Perhaps [resigning GameStop CFO] Jim Bell, that’s what he didn’t want. Ryan Cohen’s a big thinker. I have a feeling that this is the way to get this stock higher. I can’t come up with another way.”\nAlma Angotti, a former Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement attorney, anticipated more interest from regulatory bodies:\n“It’s important to remember that the securities regime is a disclosure regime and people can make speculative bets on stocks and people can lose a lot of money. And maybe in the minds of certain people, that ice cream tweet was related to the CFO resignation tweet and they think the company is going to be fixed and brought into the digital world quite successfully. It’s hard to say. But ... I think both Congress and the SEC will be studying that balance between orderly markets and letting people invest what they want to invest for whatever reasons they want to invest even if it doesn’t make sense to us.”\nJon Najarian, the co-founder of MarketRebellion.com and a CNBC contributor, tracked spiking options activity in three Reddit-fueled names:\n“This is volatility on steroids. And at the end of last week, that’s regular February expiration. Three stocks really stood out to us both because of the surge in Reddit posts as well as [a] surge in option buying, and those were GameStop,AMC and Blackberry. So, when we saw that, it built into the end of last week ... and then it faded off, and that’s probably because GameStop was bouncing a little bit on Monday and on Tuesday it dropped to about 55,000 contracts on the call side. That’s pretty low. [On Wednesday], it pops up to 270,000 calls. So, in other words, fivefold jump in volume [Wednesday]. Similar jumps in AMC that went over a million call contracts from a low of about 155,000 last Friday and then Blackberry also. And all three of them saw outsized moves. In the case of GameStop in particular, ... it was just amazing. [On Thursday], they were buying $200 calls and they traded as high as $46 for a $200 call on down to about $12 just before we came on air. So, there’s a lot of fluff and a lot of, I’m not trying to denigrate them, but a lot of amateur trading chasing those up so high with just one trading day to go, because, obviously, these options expire tomorrow, the Februarys expire tomorrow at the $200 strike. Just crazy. But that’s kind of what goes on. You get a big herd move in there — if they catch it right, ... they can make a lot of money, and if they don’t move quick, they have less and less time to get out.”\nMichael Darda, chief economist and market strategist at MKM Partners, preached caution:\n“I think we’re all a bit confused. Talking to family members and friends, I’m getting a lot of questions about the stocks that are a focus in these Reddit forums and also cryptocurrencies. So, all I’m telling retail investors that are friends and family members is just be careful. Speculate if you want to speculate, but it should be a super tiny portion of your portfolio and don’t expect any of this stuff to be a one-way bet. So, caution is certainly needed here.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363860656,"gmtCreate":1614125636275,"gmtModify":1631892211751,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363860656","repostId":"1198320495","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198320495","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614087585,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198320495?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-23 21:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market is getting nervous about Powell’s testimony this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198320495","media":"cnbc","summary":"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks twice to Congress this week as part of mandated semiannual testimony.Normally nonevents for the market, the central bank leader’s comments will be viewed closely this week for how he views this year’s run-up in bond yields.Investors worry that too quick of a rise might force the Fed to tighten policy too quickly, while a complacent Fed also would pose overheating risks.Rising bond yields and accompanying inflation fears are adding a level of drama to","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks twice to Congress this week as part of mandated semiannual testimony.Normally nonevents for the market, the central bank leader’s comments will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/market-nervousness-growing-over-powells-testimony-to-congress-this-week.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market is getting nervous about Powell’s testimony this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market is getting nervous about Powell’s testimony this week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-23 21:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/market-nervousness-growing-over-powells-testimony-to-congress-this-week.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks twice to Congress this week as part of mandated semiannual testimony.Normally nonevents for the market, the central bank leader’s comments will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/market-nervousness-growing-over-powells-testimony-to-congress-this-week.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/market-nervousness-growing-over-powells-testimony-to-congress-this-week.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1198320495","content_text":"KEY POINTSFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks twice to Congress this week as part of mandated semiannual testimony.Normally nonevents for the market, the central bank leader’s comments will be viewed closely this week for how he views this year’s run-up in bond yields.Investors worry that too quick of a rise might force the Fed to tighten policy too quickly, while a complacent Fed also would pose overheating risks.Rising bond yields and accompanying inflation fears are adding a level of drama to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s appearance this week before Congress.The central bank chair is slated to address Senate and House panels on successive days as part of mandated semiannual updates on monetary policy.Normally routine affairs, recent financial market tumult and concerns about how the Fed may react have investors paying a bit more close attention than usual to the hearings scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday.“This is one of the more interesting episodes in which a Fed chair has had to testify,” said Nathan Sheets, chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income. “Sometimes we say, ‘ho hum, no news.’ This is going to be news. He’s really caught between a rock and a hard place.”What’s got the market’s attention recently has been a pickup in government bond yields, particularly further out on the curve.While the 2-year is unchanged for 2021, the 5-year has risen nearly a quarter percentage point as of Friday’s market close while the benchmark 10-year note has seen its yield jump 41 basis points to 1.34%, an area where it hasn’t been since around the same time in 2020, before the worst of the pandemic struck.The 30-year bond yield has surged even more, leaping nearly half a point this year to 2.14%.Powell’s dilemma is this: Rising bond yields could be signaling the reflation of the economy that the Fed has been pushing and are therefore higher for good reasons. However, should the trend get out of control, the Fed then might have to tighten policy faster than the market expects, offsetting some of the good that has come with the burst in yields.Complicating the matter is that markets also might not like it if Powell is overly complacent.“If this testimony was behind closed doors, I think Jay Powell would be quite pleased with what he sees in the economy and the markets,” Sheets said, using the Fed chair’s nickname. “But given that it’s public, he’s got to be careful. If he’s too sanguine about the rise in rates, the markets are going to take that as a significant green light for rates to rip higher.”“The Fed is comfortable with an organic rise in rates reflecting shifts in views on growth and inflation,” he added. “But I think the Fed also wants to be careful that it doesn’t create and amplify a self-sustaining dynamic that pushes rates higher for other reasons.”Those “other reasons” primarily would be fears that the economy could overheat.Stimulus and more stimulusThe Fed has run historically loose policy for the past year, dropping its benchmark borrowing rate to near zero and buying at least $120 billion of bonds each month. That’s on top of a series of since-expired lending and liquidity programs implemented in the early days of the Covid-19 crisis.Along with that, Congress has come in with more than $3 trillion of fiscal stimulus and could approve up to $1.9 trillion more by the end of week.All that has transpired amid an economy that, besides a still-troubling employment problem primarily in the service sector, is humming. Wall Street is taking up first-quarter growth expectations and market-based indicators of inflation are rising.That’s why Powell’s tightrope walk this week will be all the more compelling.“The market mood has changed,”Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” It’s no longer whether yields are going higher, it’s when is the move too big. That’s what the market’s trying to figure out.”Investors are particularly concerned whether all the stimulus isn’t going overboard and threatening to destabilize the economy over the longer run.“I can predict that the yellow lights are flashing all over the Fed because of the [yields] move and the steepening of the yield curve, and the Fed may do more to try to control yields,” El-Erian said.Fed officials have largely dismissed so-called yield curve control to use its bond purchasing power to control rates between various fixed income maturities.But the market could force the Fed’s hand, and Powell is likely to get asked about where he stands on what tools the Fed has to calm market issues. He has repeatedly stressed that the central bank has the weapons to control inflation, but deploying those comes with a price. Markets used to low yields and companies accustomed to cheap borrowing costs could get rattled by an unexpected Fed move.Evidence of how clearly the market is watching the issue came Monday morning, when European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said she is “closely monitoring the evolution of longer-term nominal bond yields.” Her words were enough to calm a jittery market and turn what had been an opening loss on Wall Street into a mixed market with the Dow up in early afternoon trading. Treasury yields were mostly flat on the day.Tom Lee, managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, noted that his “clients have already expressed some apprehension about this week. Part of this reflects the fact that bond yields have been steadily rising and equity investors are nervous that the bond market might reach some sort of ‘breaking point’” during Powell’s testimony.Powell speaks Tuesday before the Senate Finance Committee then Wednesday to the House Financial Services Committee.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369195515,"gmtCreate":1614007242437,"gmtModify":1631892211759,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ic","listText":"Ic","text":"Ic","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369195515","repostId":"1100241886","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369065855,"gmtCreate":1613989780177,"gmtModify":1631892211789,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm&nbsp;","listText":"Hmm&nbsp;","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369065855","repostId":"1135994288","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382616247,"gmtCreate":1613440775989,"gmtModify":1631892211792,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool&nbsp;","listText":"Cool&nbsp;","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382616247","repostId":"1185344045","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185344045","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613440524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185344045?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 09:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185344045","media":"Barrons","summary":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk","content":"<p>It is likely that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).</p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.</p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere the Real Stock Market Bubble Is\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 09:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","STX":"希捷科技","WDC":"西部数据",".DJI":"道琼斯","AAPL":"苹果","TSLA":"特斯拉",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185344045","content_text":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and Western Digital(WDC).Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood toldBarron’sthat he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 151 percentage points.One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386267484,"gmtCreate":1613186831448,"gmtModify":1631892211803,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":":)&nbsp;","listText":":)&nbsp;","text":":)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386267484","repostId":"2110904027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386916641,"gmtCreate":1613125831983,"gmtModify":1631892211819,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yep","listText":"Yep","text":"Yep","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386916641","repostId":"2110904027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":386267484,"gmtCreate":1613186831448,"gmtModify":1631892211803,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":":)&nbsp;","listText":":)&nbsp;","text":":)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386267484","repostId":"2110904027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152602600,"gmtCreate":1625285215000,"gmtModify":1631892211695,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152602600","repostId":"1122056398","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122056398","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625280707,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122056398?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122056398","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good b","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p>\n<p>That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p>\n<p>To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p>\n<p>Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p>\n<p>As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p>\n<p><b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p>\n<p>As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p>\n<p>Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p>\n<p>For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p>\n<p>The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>\n <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>\n <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>\n <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>\n <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>\n <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>\n <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>\n <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>\n <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>\n <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>\n <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>\n <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>\n <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>\n <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>\n <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-03 10:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.\nThat’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MOS":"美国美盛","ALK":"阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司","GT":"固特异轮胎橡胶公司","RF":"地区金融","SABR":"Sabre Corporation","ADNT":"Adient PLC","OGN":"Organon & Co","LCII":"LCI Industries","MED":"快验保","NEM":"纽曼矿业","PATK":"Patrick Industries","CRMT":"美国汽车行","KBH":"KB Home","ARCB":"ArcBest Corporation"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122056398","content_text":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.\nThat’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.\nTo be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.\nJust the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.\nAs expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.\n\nAlso as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.\nHow to play the short-term reversal in July\nAs is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”\nBecause the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.\nFor anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.\nThe 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&P 500SPX.\n\nAdient PLC ADNT\nAlaska Air Group ALK\nAlliance Data Systems ADS\nAmerica’s Car Mart CRMT\nArcBest ARCB\nGoodyear Tire & Rubber GT\nKB Home KBH\nLCI Industries LCII\nMosaic & Co .MOS\nMedifast MED\nNewmont Corp. NEM\nOrganon & Co. OGN\nPatrick Industries PATK\nRegions Financial RF\nSabre SABR\n\nI also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369065855,"gmtCreate":1613989780177,"gmtModify":1631892211789,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm&nbsp;","listText":"Hmm&nbsp;","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369065855","repostId":"1135994288","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366123678,"gmtCreate":1614414242094,"gmtModify":1703477422530,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366123678","repostId":"1117820997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122330418,"gmtCreate":1624596571034,"gmtModify":1631892211706,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122330418","repostId":"1136202921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136202921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624591759,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136202921?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136202921","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan St","content":"<p><b>Apple Inc.</b>(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown&nbsp;muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant.</p>\n<p><b>The Apple Analyst:</b>Katy Huberty reiterated an Overweight rating on Apple with a $162 price target.</p>\n<p><b>The Apple Takeaways:</b>The incoming call volume on Apple shares is at a low amid investor concerns over a seasonally low&nbsp;period in the iPhone cycle,regulatory risk&nbsp;and difficult comps relative to the COVID-19-driven work-from-home&nbsp;and study-from-home&nbsp;demand, Huberty said in a note.</p>\n<p>Additionally, investors fear&nbsp;a more evolutionary iPhone s-cycle will lead to extended&nbsp;iPhone replacement cycles, the analyst said.</p>\n<p>Revenues will likely decline in 2022, increasing the likelihood of negative estimate revisions, she said.</p>\n<p>\"We recognize these risks but have a more positive outlook,\" Huberty said.</p>\n<p>The dominant bear case narrative now is the iPhone entering a more modest upgrade or \"s\" cycle —&nbsp;a period when iPhone revenue historically declined at a double-digit rate, the analyst said. She forecast a low risk of similar iPhone revenue decline next year.</p>\n<p>This is due to the longer period of iPhone replacement cycle relative to the past, an expansion to Apple's trade-in, financing and installment offers and 5G adoption, which is still in its nascent stage, Huberty said.</p>\n<p>\"Taken together, these factors build confidence that the iPhone 13 cycle will not look like past s-cycles, which is reflected in our updated FY22 iPhone forecast of 231M units,\" the analyst said.</p>\n<p>The June quarter&nbsp;will be stronger than originally expected, as iPhone and iPad builds are tracking ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimate, she said.</p>\n<p>Huberty&nbsp;raised her June quarter revenue and EPS estimates by 3%-5%.</p>\n<p>Apple's catalyst path is more back-end loaded this year, the analyst said.</p>\n<p>The company can drive low-teens annual revenue growth and high-teens annual EPS growth between fiscal years 2020 and 2023, she said.</p>\n<p>\"At24xFV/FCF, we believe the current valuation presents a good long-term buying opportunity.\"</p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-25 11:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant.\nThe Apple Analyst:Katy ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136202921","content_text":"Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant.\nThe Apple Analyst:Katy Huberty reiterated an Overweight rating on Apple with a $162 price target.\nThe Apple Takeaways:The incoming call volume on Apple shares is at a low amid investor concerns over a seasonally low period in the iPhone cycle,regulatory risk and difficult comps relative to the COVID-19-driven work-from-home and study-from-home demand, Huberty said in a note.\nAdditionally, investors fear a more evolutionary iPhone s-cycle will lead to extended iPhone replacement cycles, the analyst said.\nRevenues will likely decline in 2022, increasing the likelihood of negative estimate revisions, she said.\n\"We recognize these risks but have a more positive outlook,\" Huberty said.\nThe dominant bear case narrative now is the iPhone entering a more modest upgrade or \"s\" cycle — a period when iPhone revenue historically declined at a double-digit rate, the analyst said. She forecast a low risk of similar iPhone revenue decline next year.\nThis is due to the longer period of iPhone replacement cycle relative to the past, an expansion to Apple's trade-in, financing and installment offers and 5G adoption, which is still in its nascent stage, Huberty said.\n\"Taken together, these factors build confidence that the iPhone 13 cycle will not look like past s-cycles, which is reflected in our updated FY22 iPhone forecast of 231M units,\" the analyst said.\nThe June quarter will be stronger than originally expected, as iPhone and iPad builds are tracking ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimate, she said.\nHuberty raised her June quarter revenue and EPS estimates by 3%-5%.\nApple's catalyst path is more back-end loaded this year, the analyst said.\nThe company can drive low-teens annual revenue growth and high-teens annual EPS growth between fiscal years 2020 and 2023, she said.\n\"At24xFV/FCF, we believe the current valuation presents a good long-term buying opportunity.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368821562,"gmtCreate":1614309654756,"gmtModify":1703476167751,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368821562","repostId":"1157194073","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157194073","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614307673,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157194073?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 10:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"‘This is volatility on steroids’: Four market analysts on GameStop’s monster move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157194073","media":"cnbc","summary":"Volatility has struck shares of GameStop once again.\nThe stock closed about 18.5% higher on Thursday","content":"<div>\n<p>Volatility has struck shares of GameStop once again.\nThe stock closed about 18.5% higher on Thursday after a raucous session in which trading was halted multiple times on account of the sharp moves....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/this-is-volatility-on-steroids-four-market-analysts-on-gamestop.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>‘This is volatility on steroids’: Four market analysts on GameStop’s monster move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n‘This is volatility on steroids’: Four market analysts on GameStop’s monster move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-26 10:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/this-is-volatility-on-steroids-four-market-analysts-on-gamestop.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Volatility has struck shares of GameStop once again.\nThe stock closed about 18.5% higher on Thursday after a raucous session in which trading was halted multiple times on account of the sharp moves....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/this-is-volatility-on-steroids-four-market-analysts-on-gamestop.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/this-is-volatility-on-steroids-four-market-analysts-on-gamestop.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1157194073","content_text":"Volatility has struck shares of GameStop once again.\nThe stock closed about 18.5% higher on Thursday after a raucous session in which trading was halted multiple times on account of the sharp moves.GameStop surged by over 100% on Wednesday after the company announced that its chief financial officer would resign.\nJim Cramer, the host of CNBC’s“Mad Money,”said there may be only one way to justify GameStop’s stock price:\n“One of the things ...we saw Square do— initially it seemed ridiculous, but it was OK;PayPal, same thing — is you become a dealer in crypto. Now, last night on the unbelievably goodNvidiacall, as a side note, they talked about March. [They’re] going to have some actual cards just for crypto. It really won’t be important for Nvidia, but it could be important for a place like GameStop. If GameStop were to turn itself into a 5,000-store introduction to crypto, make it so that they sell $1 billion worth of stock ... and buy crypto with it, and then make it so it’s an international gaming place where you win bitcoin, I think you can justify the stock price. I have not been able to come up with anything else, but this works. And it doesn’t have to be bitcoin. We can make it crypto. But turn it into a crypto information palace and you have worldwide games, no latency, you play it and suddenly [GameStop investor and Chewy co-founder] Ryan Cohen — then you may start believing him. Well, the CFOs, they tend not to have bitcoin on their balance sheet. Perhaps [resigning GameStop CFO] Jim Bell, that’s what he didn’t want. Ryan Cohen’s a big thinker. I have a feeling that this is the way to get this stock higher. I can’t come up with another way.”\nAlma Angotti, a former Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement attorney, anticipated more interest from regulatory bodies:\n“It’s important to remember that the securities regime is a disclosure regime and people can make speculative bets on stocks and people can lose a lot of money. And maybe in the minds of certain people, that ice cream tweet was related to the CFO resignation tweet and they think the company is going to be fixed and brought into the digital world quite successfully. It’s hard to say. But ... I think both Congress and the SEC will be studying that balance between orderly markets and letting people invest what they want to invest for whatever reasons they want to invest even if it doesn’t make sense to us.”\nJon Najarian, the co-founder of MarketRebellion.com and a CNBC contributor, tracked spiking options activity in three Reddit-fueled names:\n“This is volatility on steroids. And at the end of last week, that’s regular February expiration. Three stocks really stood out to us both because of the surge in Reddit posts as well as [a] surge in option buying, and those were GameStop,AMC and Blackberry. So, when we saw that, it built into the end of last week ... and then it faded off, and that’s probably because GameStop was bouncing a little bit on Monday and on Tuesday it dropped to about 55,000 contracts on the call side. That’s pretty low. [On Wednesday], it pops up to 270,000 calls. So, in other words, fivefold jump in volume [Wednesday]. Similar jumps in AMC that went over a million call contracts from a low of about 155,000 last Friday and then Blackberry also. And all three of them saw outsized moves. In the case of GameStop in particular, ... it was just amazing. [On Thursday], they were buying $200 calls and they traded as high as $46 for a $200 call on down to about $12 just before we came on air. So, there’s a lot of fluff and a lot of, I’m not trying to denigrate them, but a lot of amateur trading chasing those up so high with just one trading day to go, because, obviously, these options expire tomorrow, the Februarys expire tomorrow at the $200 strike. Just crazy. But that’s kind of what goes on. You get a big herd move in there — if they catch it right, ... they can make a lot of money, and if they don’t move quick, they have less and less time to get out.”\nMichael Darda, chief economist and market strategist at MKM Partners, preached caution:\n“I think we’re all a bit confused. Talking to family members and friends, I’m getting a lot of questions about the stocks that are a focus in these Reddit forums and also cryptocurrencies. So, all I’m telling retail investors that are friends and family members is just be careful. Speculate if you want to speculate, but it should be a super tiny portion of your portfolio and don’t expect any of this stuff to be a one-way bet. So, caution is certainly needed here.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363860656,"gmtCreate":1614125636275,"gmtModify":1631892211751,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363860656","repostId":"1198320495","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198320495","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614087585,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198320495?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-23 21:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market is getting nervous about Powell’s testimony this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198320495","media":"cnbc","summary":"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks twice to Congress this week as part of mandated semiannual testimony.Normally nonevents for the market, the central bank leader’s comments will be viewed closely this week for how he views this year’s run-up in bond yields.Investors worry that too quick of a rise might force the Fed to tighten policy too quickly, while a complacent Fed also would pose overheating risks.Rising bond yields and accompanying inflation fears are adding a level of drama to","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks twice to Congress this week as part of mandated semiannual testimony.Normally nonevents for the market, the central bank leader’s comments will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/market-nervousness-growing-over-powells-testimony-to-congress-this-week.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market is getting nervous about Powell’s testimony this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market is getting nervous about Powell’s testimony this week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-23 21:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/market-nervousness-growing-over-powells-testimony-to-congress-this-week.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks twice to Congress this week as part of mandated semiannual testimony.Normally nonevents for the market, the central bank leader’s comments will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/market-nervousness-growing-over-powells-testimony-to-congress-this-week.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/market-nervousness-growing-over-powells-testimony-to-congress-this-week.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1198320495","content_text":"KEY POINTSFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks twice to Congress this week as part of mandated semiannual testimony.Normally nonevents for the market, the central bank leader’s comments will be viewed closely this week for how he views this year’s run-up in bond yields.Investors worry that too quick of a rise might force the Fed to tighten policy too quickly, while a complacent Fed also would pose overheating risks.Rising bond yields and accompanying inflation fears are adding a level of drama to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s appearance this week before Congress.The central bank chair is slated to address Senate and House panels on successive days as part of mandated semiannual updates on monetary policy.Normally routine affairs, recent financial market tumult and concerns about how the Fed may react have investors paying a bit more close attention than usual to the hearings scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday.“This is one of the more interesting episodes in which a Fed chair has had to testify,” said Nathan Sheets, chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income. “Sometimes we say, ‘ho hum, no news.’ This is going to be news. He’s really caught between a rock and a hard place.”What’s got the market’s attention recently has been a pickup in government bond yields, particularly further out on the curve.While the 2-year is unchanged for 2021, the 5-year has risen nearly a quarter percentage point as of Friday’s market close while the benchmark 10-year note has seen its yield jump 41 basis points to 1.34%, an area where it hasn’t been since around the same time in 2020, before the worst of the pandemic struck.The 30-year bond yield has surged even more, leaping nearly half a point this year to 2.14%.Powell’s dilemma is this: Rising bond yields could be signaling the reflation of the economy that the Fed has been pushing and are therefore higher for good reasons. However, should the trend get out of control, the Fed then might have to tighten policy faster than the market expects, offsetting some of the good that has come with the burst in yields.Complicating the matter is that markets also might not like it if Powell is overly complacent.“If this testimony was behind closed doors, I think Jay Powell would be quite pleased with what he sees in the economy and the markets,” Sheets said, using the Fed chair’s nickname. “But given that it’s public, he’s got to be careful. If he’s too sanguine about the rise in rates, the markets are going to take that as a significant green light for rates to rip higher.”“The Fed is comfortable with an organic rise in rates reflecting shifts in views on growth and inflation,” he added. “But I think the Fed also wants to be careful that it doesn’t create and amplify a self-sustaining dynamic that pushes rates higher for other reasons.”Those “other reasons” primarily would be fears that the economy could overheat.Stimulus and more stimulusThe Fed has run historically loose policy for the past year, dropping its benchmark borrowing rate to near zero and buying at least $120 billion of bonds each month. That’s on top of a series of since-expired lending and liquidity programs implemented in the early days of the Covid-19 crisis.Along with that, Congress has come in with more than $3 trillion of fiscal stimulus and could approve up to $1.9 trillion more by the end of week.All that has transpired amid an economy that, besides a still-troubling employment problem primarily in the service sector, is humming. Wall Street is taking up first-quarter growth expectations and market-based indicators of inflation are rising.That’s why Powell’s tightrope walk this week will be all the more compelling.“The market mood has changed,”Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” It’s no longer whether yields are going higher, it’s when is the move too big. That’s what the market’s trying to figure out.”Investors are particularly concerned whether all the stimulus isn’t going overboard and threatening to destabilize the economy over the longer run.“I can predict that the yellow lights are flashing all over the Fed because of the [yields] move and the steepening of the yield curve, and the Fed may do more to try to control yields,” El-Erian said.Fed officials have largely dismissed so-called yield curve control to use its bond purchasing power to control rates between various fixed income maturities.But the market could force the Fed’s hand, and Powell is likely to get asked about where he stands on what tools the Fed has to calm market issues. He has repeatedly stressed that the central bank has the weapons to control inflation, but deploying those comes with a price. Markets used to low yields and companies accustomed to cheap borrowing costs could get rattled by an unexpected Fed move.Evidence of how clearly the market is watching the issue came Monday morning, when European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said she is “closely monitoring the evolution of longer-term nominal bond yields.” Her words were enough to calm a jittery market and turn what had been an opening loss on Wall Street into a mixed market with the Dow up in early afternoon trading. Treasury yields were mostly flat on the day.Tom Lee, managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, noted that his “clients have already expressed some apprehension about this week. Part of this reflects the fact that bond yields have been steadily rising and equity investors are nervous that the bond market might reach some sort of ‘breaking point’” during Powell’s testimony.Powell speaks Tuesday before the Senate Finance Committee then Wednesday to the House Financial Services Committee.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369195515,"gmtCreate":1614007242437,"gmtModify":1631892211759,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ic","listText":"Ic","text":"Ic","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369195515","repostId":"1100241886","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386916641,"gmtCreate":1613125831983,"gmtModify":1631892211819,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yep","listText":"Yep","text":"Yep","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386916641","repostId":"2110904027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382616247,"gmtCreate":1613440775989,"gmtModify":1631892211792,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool&nbsp;","listText":"Cool&nbsp;","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382616247","repostId":"1185344045","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185344045","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613440524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185344045?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 09:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185344045","media":"Barrons","summary":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk","content":"<p>It is likely that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).</p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.</p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere the Real Stock Market Bubble Is\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 09:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","STX":"希捷科技","WDC":"西部数据",".DJI":"道琼斯","AAPL":"苹果","TSLA":"特斯拉",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185344045","content_text":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and Western Digital(WDC).Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood toldBarron’sthat he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 151 percentage points.One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}