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Geis

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2021-07-03

Hi

These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>

2021-06-25

Latest

Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote>

2021-02-27

Latest

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2021-02-26

Latest

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2021-02-24

Latest

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2021-02-22

Ic

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2021-02-22

Hmm

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2021-02-16

Cool

Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>

2021-02-13

:)

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2021-02-12

Yep

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10:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122056398","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good b","content":"<p>  <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>  June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>“短期反转策略”通常在7月份表现特别好。</b>6月份表现最差的股票是7月份跑赢美国市场的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为6月底的投资组合装饰将使当月表现不佳的股票比其他情况下下跌得更远。一旦这种人为的抛售压力消失，这些股票很可能会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，装点门面在整个日历中的几个场合都是一股强大的力量，不仅仅是在一年中的这个时候。它应该在12月底产生最大的影响，因为1月初查看其投资组合持股的投资者比一年中任何其他月份都多。因此，基金经理会特意在12月31日之前出售亏损股票，以避免不得不报告他们曾经拥有过这些股票的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p><p><blockquote>经理们为了装饰门面而购买的股票的情况恰恰相反。这些股票已经表现良好，经理们希望在季末持股报告中展示这些股票。他们购买化妆品将导致这些股票表现更好——这反过来又会导致它们在新季度到来时回落。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，一月份是上个月表现最差的公司相对于上个月表现最好的公司表现最好的月份——这种模式被称为“短期逆转效应”。下图说明了这一点，它反映了1926年以来的月度数据。七月是这种模式第二强的月份。这也是有道理的，因为继一月之后，七月是投资者通读经纪报表的下一个最常见的时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p><p><blockquote>同样正如预期的那样，在第一季度和第三季度末，季度末的门面装饰不再是一个因素。事实上，正如你从图表中看到的，短期反转效应在4月份甚至不如非季末月份占优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7月短线反转怎么玩</b></blockquote></p><p> As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，交易所交易基金的创建是为了利用短期反转效应。Vesper美国大盘股短期反转策略ETFUTRN“寻求利用近期经历大幅抛售的股票近期反弹的趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p><p><blockquote>由于该基金是最近才在2018年9月创建的，该ETF此后的平均月回报率仅暗示了长期模式。但其7月份的平均回报率（4.1%）好于其他任何月份。</blockquote></p><p> For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何对6月份表现最差的个股感兴趣的人，我构建了以下列表。我从标准普尔1500指数中6月份回报最差的50只股票开始，然后剔除了我的时事通讯表现跟踪服务监控的任何表现最好的时事通讯目前不推荐的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p><p><blockquote>下面列出的15只股票在这一筛选过程中幸存下来。我注意到，平均而言，这15只股票在6月份下跌了15.4%，而标准普尔500SPX指数则上涨了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>  <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>  <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>  <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>  <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>  <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>  <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>  <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>  <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>  <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>  <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>  <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>  <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>  <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>  <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li> </ul> I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Adient PLC ADNT</li><li>阿拉斯加航空集团ALK</li><li>联盟数据系统广告</li><li>美国汽车市场CRMT</li><li>ArcBest ArcB</li><li>固特异轮胎橡胶GT</li><li>KB主页KBH</li><li>LCI工业LCII</li><li>马赛克公司MOS</li><li>快验快</li><li>纽蒙特公司NEM</li><li>欧加农公司OGN</li><li>帕特里克工业PATK</li><li>地区金融射频</li><li>军刀</li></ul>我还注意到，这些股票的平均市净率为3.3，远低于标普500 4.7的比率。低于平均水平的市净率是价值股的标志，价值股会受到短期反转策略的青睐是有道理的。这是因为价值股在6月份的表现明显落后于成长股——但它们的命运可能很快就会改变。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>  June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>“短期反转策略”通常在7月份表现特别好。</b>6月份表现最差的股票是7月份跑赢美国市场的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为6月底的投资组合装饰将使当月表现不佳的股票比其他情况下下跌得更远。一旦这种人为的抛售压力消失，这些股票很可能会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，装点门面在整个日历中的几个场合都是一股强大的力量，不仅仅是在一年中的这个时候。它应该在12月底产生最大的影响，因为1月初查看其投资组合持股的投资者比一年中任何其他月份都多。因此，基金经理会特意在12月31日之前出售亏损股票，以避免不得不报告他们曾经拥有过这些股票的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p><p><blockquote>经理们为了装饰门面而购买的股票的情况恰恰相反。这些股票已经表现良好，经理们希望在季末持股报告中展示这些股票。他们购买化妆品将导致这些股票表现更好——这反过来又会导致它们在新季度到来时回落。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，一月份是上个月表现最差的公司相对于上个月表现最好的公司表现最好的月份——这种模式被称为“短期逆转效应”。下图说明了这一点，它反映了1926年以来的月度数据。七月是这种模式第二强的月份。这也是有道理的，因为继一月之后，七月是投资者通读经纪报表的下一个最常见的时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p><p><blockquote>同样正如预期的那样，在第一季度和第三季度末，季度末的门面装饰不再是一个因素。事实上，正如你从图表中看到的，短期反转效应在4月份甚至不如非季末月份占优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7月短线反转怎么玩</b></blockquote></p><p> As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，交易所交易基金的创建是为了利用短期反转效应。Vesper美国大盘股短期反转策略ETFUTRN“寻求利用近期经历大幅抛售的股票近期反弹的趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p><p><blockquote>由于该基金是最近才在2018年9月创建的，该ETF此后的平均月回报率仅暗示了长期模式。但其7月份的平均回报率（4.1%）好于其他任何月份。</blockquote></p><p> For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何对6月份表现最差的个股感兴趣的人，我构建了以下列表。我从标准普尔1500指数中6月份回报最差的50只股票开始，然后剔除了我的时事通讯表现跟踪服务监控的任何表现最好的时事通讯目前不推荐的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p><p><blockquote>下面列出的15只股票在这一筛选过程中幸存下来。我注意到，平均而言，这15只股票在6月份下跌了15.4%，而标准普尔500SPX指数则上涨了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>  <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>  <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>  <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>  <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>  <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>  <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>  <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>  <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>  <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>  <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>  <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>  <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>  <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>  <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li> </ul> I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Adient PLC ADNT</li><li>阿拉斯加航空集团ALK</li><li>联盟数据系统广告</li><li>美国汽车市场CRMT</li><li>ArcBest ArcB</li><li>固特异轮胎橡胶GT</li><li>KB主页KBH</li><li>LCI工业LCII</li><li>马赛克公司MOS</li><li>快验快</li><li>纽蒙特公司NEM</li><li>欧加农公司OGN</li><li>帕特里克工业PATK</li><li>地区金融射频</li><li>军刀</li></ul>我还注意到，这些股票的平均市净率为3.3，远低于标普500 4.7的比率。低于平均水平的市净率是价值股的标志，价值股会受到短期反转策略的青睐是有道理的。这是因为价值股在6月份的表现明显落后于成长股——但它们的命运可能很快就会改变。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RF":"地区金融","GT":"固特异轮胎橡胶公司","ALK":"阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司","OGN":"Organon & Co","NEM":"纽曼矿业","ARCB":"ArcBest Corporation","PATK":"Patrick Industries","MED":"快验保","KBH":"KB Home","SABR":"Sabre Corporation","ADNT":"Adient PLC","CRMT":"美国汽车行","MOS":"美国美盛","LCII":"LCI Industries"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122056398","content_text":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.\nThat’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.\nTo be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.\nJust the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.\nAs expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.\n\nAlso as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.\nHow to play the short-term reversal in July\nAs is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”\nBecause the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.\nFor anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.\nThe 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&P 500SPX.\n\nAdient PLC ADNT\nAlaska Air Group ALK\nAlliance Data Systems ADS\nAmerica’s Car Mart CRMT\nArcBest ARCB\nGoodyear Tire & Rubber GT\nKB Home KBH\nLCI Industries LCII\nMosaic & Co .MOS\nMedifast MED\nNewmont Corp. NEM\nOrganon & Co. OGN\nPatrick Industries PATK\nRegions Financial RF\nSabre SABR\n\nI also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ALK":0.9,"MOS":0.9,"MED":0.9,"PATK":0.9,"ARCB":0.9,"OGN":0.9,"RF":0.9,"SABR":0.9,"ADNT":0.9,"ADS":0.9,"NEM":0.9,"KBH":0.9,"CRMT":0.9,"LCII":0.9,"GT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122330418,"gmtCreate":1624596571034,"gmtModify":1631892211706,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122330418","repostId":"1136202921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136202921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624591759,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136202921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136202921","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan St","content":"<p><div> Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant. The Apple Analyst:Katy ...</p><p><blockquote><div>苹果公司（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）的股价今年迄今表现低迷，摩根士丹利的一位分析师认为这家科技巨头的股票存在长期买入机会。苹果分析师：凯蒂...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant. The Apple Analyst:Katy ...</p><p><blockquote><div>苹果公司（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）的股价今年迄今表现低迷，摩根士丹利的一位分析师认为这家科技巨头的股票存在长期买入机会。苹果分析师：凯蒂...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136202921","content_text":"Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant.\nThe Apple Analyst:Katy Huberty reiterated an Overweight rating on Apple with a $162 price target.\nThe Apple Takeaways:The incoming call volume on Apple shares is at a low amid investor concerns over a seasonally low period in the iPhone cycle,regulatory risk and difficult comps relative to the COVID-19-driven work-from-home and study-from-home demand, Huberty said in a note.\nAdditionally, investors fear a more evolutionary iPhone s-cycle will lead to extended iPhone replacement cycles, the analyst said.\nRevenues will likely decline in 2022, increasing the likelihood of negative estimate revisions, she said.\n\"We recognize these risks but have a more positive outlook,\" Huberty said.\nThe dominant bear case narrative now is the iPhone entering a more modest upgrade or \"s\" cycle — a period when iPhone revenue historically declined at a double-digit rate, the analyst said. She forecast a low risk of similar iPhone revenue decline next year.\nThis is due to the longer period of iPhone replacement cycle relative to the past, an expansion to Apple's trade-in, financing and installment offers and 5G adoption, which is still in its nascent stage, Huberty said.\n\"Taken together, these factors build confidence that the iPhone 13 cycle will not look like past s-cycles, which is reflected in our updated FY22 iPhone forecast of 231M units,\" the analyst said.\nThe June quarter will be stronger than originally expected, as iPhone and iPad builds are tracking ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimate, she said.\nHuberty raised her June quarter revenue and EPS estimates by 3%-5%.\nApple's catalyst path is more back-end loaded this year, the analyst said.\nThe company can drive low-teens annual revenue growth and high-teens annual EPS growth between fiscal years 2020 and 2023, she said.\n\"At24xFV/FCF, we believe the current valuation presents a good long-term buying opportunity.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366123678,"gmtCreate":1614414242094,"gmtModify":1703477422530,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366123678","repostId":"1117820997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368821562,"gmtCreate":1614309654756,"gmtModify":1703476167751,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368821562","repostId":"1157194073","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363860656,"gmtCreate":1614125636275,"gmtModify":1631892211751,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363860656","repostId":"1198320495","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369195515,"gmtCreate":1614007242437,"gmtModify":1631892211759,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ic","listText":"Ic","text":"Ic","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369195515","repostId":"1100241886","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369065855,"gmtCreate":1613989780177,"gmtModify":1631892211789,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm&nbsp;","listText":"Hmm&nbsp;","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369065855","repostId":"1135994288","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382616247,"gmtCreate":1613440775989,"gmtModify":1631892211792,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool&nbsp;","listText":"Cool&nbsp;","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382616247","repostId":"1185344045","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185344045","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613440524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185344045?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 09:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185344045","media":"Barrons","summary":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk","content":"<p>It is likely that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500科技硬件、存储和外围设备指数很可能陷入泡沫，面临破裂的风险。</blockquote></p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p><blockquote>这是我从哈佛大学三位研究人员的一项研究中得出的结论：罗宾·格林伍德(Robin Greenwood)，金融和银行学教授，担任该机构行为金融和金融稳定项目的主席；经济学教授安德烈·施莱弗；还有杨友，博士。候选人。在他们发表在《金融经济学杂志》2019年1月号上的研究“Fama的泡沫”中，他们分析了1926年以来的美国股市历史，以寻找预测即将破裂的泡沫的方法。</blockquote></p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).</p><p><blockquote>应用研究人员得出的公式，我计算出在未来两年的某个时候，技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数有80%的可能性比现在低40%。该行业一些较知名的公司包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）、希捷科技（STX）和西部数据（WDC）。</blockquote></p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p><blockquote>尽管没有其他行业符合研究人员对泡沫的定义，但另外两个行业接近泡沫。他们也在技术领域：半导体和半导体设备，以及软件。</blockquote></p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>为什么要关注一个可能存在泡沫的行业，而不是整个市场？格林伍德教授告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他和他的研究同事从对泡沫历史的研究中了解到，泡沫“很少是市场范围内的”事件。他说，更常见的是，即使其他行业仍然被低估，市场的某些部分也会出现泡沫。</blockquote></p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在互联网泡沫（所有泡沫之母）的顶峰时期，情况确实如此。格林伍德提醒我们，尽管互联网股票在20世纪90年代末和2000年代初飙升至令人震惊的估值，但市场的其他板块——尤其是价值股——要么估值合理，甚至被低估。在伴随互联网泡沫股票破裂的熊市期间，其他一些行业实际上有所上涨。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员将泡沫定义为任何两年回报率比整体市场至少高出100个百分点的行业。这确实是一个高标准——在1926年至2016年间拥有绩效数据的所有行业中，只有40个行业在这90年期间的任何时候都满足这一定义。</blockquote></p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p><blockquote>当然，并不是所有的泡沫都会破裂，那些破裂的泡沫也不总是马上破裂。研究人员在这里也强加了一个严格的先决条件：一旦一个行业满足了他们对泡沫的定义，如果在随后的两年内，该行业至少损失了40%的价值，他们就认为该行业已经破裂。在满足研究人员泡沫定义的40个行业中，有21个（即53%）破裂。</blockquote></p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，假设未来和过去一样：任何在任何两年内跑赢市场100个百分点的行业在接下来的两年里损失40%或更多的可能性略高于二分之一。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员还研究了当他们收紧或放松对泡沫的定义时，崩盘的概率是如何变化的。当他们将标准设定为仅领先市场50个百分点而不是100个百分点时，崩盘的几率降至仅20%。当他们将标准收紧到150个百分点时，崩溃的概率上升到了80%。</blockquote></p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>后一种概率适用于技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数。根据FactSet的数据，过去两年，它的表现优于标准普尔500指数151个百分点。</blockquote></p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易将教授们的公式应用于个别证券，就像我自己过去所做的那样。例如，2017年11月，我用这个公式论证了比特币撞车的几率大于80%。在接下来的12个月里，它下跌了67%。2020年2月，我再次使用教授们的公式来论证特斯拉(TSLA)崩溃的几率为80%。该股在接下来的六周内下跌了59%。</blockquote></p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p><blockquote>当然，从那时起，特斯拉和比特币就像许多其他飞涨的资产一样飙升。我问格林伍德，我是否应该再次预测他们崩溃的可能性很高？他表示反对，强调需要进一步研究影响个股崩盘几率的各种因素。</blockquote></p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他补充说，他认为不仅整个股市被高估，而且市场中的个别部分也“存在令人难以置信的泡沫”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 09:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is likely that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500科技硬件、存储和外围设备指数很可能陷入泡沫，面临破裂的风险。</blockquote></p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p><blockquote>这是我从哈佛大学三位研究人员的一项研究中得出的结论：罗宾·格林伍德(Robin Greenwood)，金融和银行学教授，担任该机构行为金融和金融稳定项目的主席；经济学教授安德烈·施莱弗；还有杨友，博士。候选人。在他们发表在《金融经济学杂志》2019年1月号上的研究“Fama的泡沫”中，他们分析了1926年以来的美国股市历史，以寻找预测即将破裂的泡沫的方法。</blockquote></p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).</p><p><blockquote>应用研究人员得出的公式，我计算出在未来两年的某个时候，技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数有80%的可能性比现在低40%。该行业一些较知名的公司包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）、希捷科技（STX）和西部数据（WDC）。</blockquote></p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p><blockquote>尽管没有其他行业符合研究人员对泡沫的定义，但另外两个行业接近泡沫。他们也在技术领域：半导体和半导体设备，以及软件。</blockquote></p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>为什么要关注一个可能存在泡沫的行业，而不是整个市场？格林伍德教授告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他和他的研究同事从对泡沫历史的研究中了解到，泡沫“很少是市场范围内的”事件。他说，更常见的是，即使其他行业仍然被低估，市场的某些部分也会出现泡沫。</blockquote></p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在互联网泡沫（所有泡沫之母）的顶峰时期，情况确实如此。格林伍德提醒我们，尽管互联网股票在20世纪90年代末和2000年代初飙升至令人震惊的估值，但市场的其他板块——尤其是价值股——要么估值合理，甚至被低估。在伴随互联网泡沫股票破裂的熊市期间，其他一些行业实际上有所上涨。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员将泡沫定义为任何两年回报率比整体市场至少高出100个百分点的行业。这确实是一个高标准——在1926年至2016年间拥有绩效数据的所有行业中，只有40个行业在这90年期间的任何时候都满足这一定义。</blockquote></p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p><blockquote>当然，并不是所有的泡沫都会破裂，那些破裂的泡沫也不总是马上破裂。研究人员在这里也强加了一个严格的先决条件：一旦一个行业满足了他们对泡沫的定义，如果在随后的两年内，该行业至少损失了40%的价值，他们就认为该行业已经破裂。在满足研究人员泡沫定义的40个行业中，有21个（即53%）破裂。</blockquote></p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，假设未来和过去一样：任何在任何两年内跑赢市场100个百分点的行业在接下来的两年里损失40%或更多的可能性略高于二分之一。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员还研究了当他们收紧或放松对泡沫的定义时，崩盘的概率是如何变化的。当他们将标准设定为仅领先市场50个百分点而不是100个百分点时，崩盘的几率降至仅20%。当他们将标准收紧到150个百分点时，崩溃的概率上升到了80%。</blockquote></p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>后一种概率适用于技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数。根据FactSet的数据，过去两年，它的表现优于标准普尔500指数151个百分点。</blockquote></p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易将教授们的公式应用于个别证券，就像我自己过去所做的那样。例如，2017年11月，我用这个公式论证了比特币撞车的几率大于80%。在接下来的12个月里，它下跌了67%。2020年2月，我再次使用教授们的公式来论证特斯拉(TSLA)崩溃的几率为80%。该股在接下来的六周内下跌了59%。</blockquote></p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p><blockquote>当然，从那时起，特斯拉和比特币就像许多其他飞涨的资产一样飙升。我问格林伍德，我是否应该再次预测他们崩溃的可能性很高？他表示反对，强调需要进一步研究影响个股崩盘几率的各种因素。</blockquote></p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他补充说，他认为不仅整个股市被高估，而且市场中的个别部分也“存在令人难以置信的泡沫”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果","TSLA":"特斯拉","WDC":"西部数据","STX":"希捷科技",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185344045","content_text":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and Western Digital(WDC).Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood toldBarron’sthat he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 151 percentage points.One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WDC":0.9,"STX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386267484,"gmtCreate":1613186831448,"gmtModify":1631892211803,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":":)&nbsp;","listText":":)&nbsp;","text":":)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386267484","repostId":"2110904027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386916641,"gmtCreate":1613125831983,"gmtModify":1631892211819,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570851333732701","authorIdStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yep","listText":"Yep","text":"Yep","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386916641","repostId":"2110904027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":386267484,"gmtCreate":1613186831448,"gmtModify":1631892211803,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851333732701","idStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":":)&nbsp;","listText":":)&nbsp;","text":":)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386267484","repostId":"2110904027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152602600,"gmtCreate":1625285215000,"gmtModify":1631892211695,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851333732701","idStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152602600","repostId":"1122056398","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122056398","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625280707,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122056398?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122056398","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good b","content":"<p>  <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>  June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>“短期反转策略”通常在7月份表现特别好。</b>6月份表现最差的股票是7月份跑赢美国市场的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为6月底的投资组合装饰将使当月表现不佳的股票比其他情况下下跌得更远。一旦这种人为的抛售压力消失，这些股票很可能会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，装点门面在整个日历中的几个场合都是一股强大的力量，不仅仅是在一年中的这个时候。它应该在12月底产生最大的影响，因为1月初查看其投资组合持股的投资者比一年中任何其他月份都多。因此，基金经理会特意在12月31日之前出售亏损股票，以避免不得不报告他们曾经拥有过这些股票的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p><p><blockquote>经理们为了装饰门面而购买的股票的情况恰恰相反。这些股票已经表现良好，经理们希望在季末持股报告中展示这些股票。他们购买化妆品将导致这些股票表现更好——这反过来又会导致它们在新季度到来时回落。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，一月份是上个月表现最差的公司相对于上个月表现最好的公司表现最好的月份——这种模式被称为“短期逆转效应”。下图说明了这一点，它反映了1926年以来的月度数据。七月是这种模式第二强的月份。这也是有道理的，因为继一月之后，七月是投资者通读经纪报表的下一个最常见的时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p><p><blockquote>同样正如预期的那样，在第一季度和第三季度末，季度末的门面装饰不再是一个因素。事实上，正如你从图表中看到的，短期反转效应在4月份甚至不如非季末月份占优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7月短线反转怎么玩</b></blockquote></p><p> As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，交易所交易基金的创建是为了利用短期反转效应。Vesper美国大盘股短期反转策略ETFUTRN“寻求利用近期经历大幅抛售的股票近期反弹的趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p><p><blockquote>由于该基金是最近才在2018年9月创建的，该ETF此后的平均月回报率仅暗示了长期模式。但其7月份的平均回报率（4.1%）好于其他任何月份。</blockquote></p><p> For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何对6月份表现最差的个股感兴趣的人，我构建了以下列表。我从标准普尔1500指数中6月份回报最差的50只股票开始，然后剔除了我的时事通讯表现跟踪服务监控的任何表现最好的时事通讯目前不推荐的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p><p><blockquote>下面列出的15只股票在这一筛选过程中幸存下来。我注意到，平均而言，这15只股票在6月份下跌了15.4%，而标准普尔500SPX指数则上涨了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>  <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>  <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>  <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>  <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>  <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>  <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>  <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>  <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>  <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>  <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>  <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>  <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>  <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>  <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li> </ul> I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Adient PLC ADNT</li><li>阿拉斯加航空集团ALK</li><li>联盟数据系统广告</li><li>美国汽车市场CRMT</li><li>ArcBest ArcB</li><li>固特异轮胎橡胶GT</li><li>KB主页KBH</li><li>LCI工业LCII</li><li>马赛克公司MOS</li><li>快验快</li><li>纽蒙特公司NEM</li><li>欧加农公司OGN</li><li>帕特里克工业PATK</li><li>地区金融射频</li><li>军刀</li></ul>我还注意到，这些股票的平均市净率为3.3，远低于标普500 4.7的比率。低于平均水平的市净率是价值股的标志，价值股会受到短期反转策略的青睐是有道理的。这是因为价值股在6月份的表现明显落后于成长股——但它们的命运可能很快就会改变。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>  June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>“短期反转策略”通常在7月份表现特别好。</b>6月份表现最差的股票是7月份跑赢美国市场的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为6月底的投资组合装饰将使当月表现不佳的股票比其他情况下下跌得更远。一旦这种人为的抛售压力消失，这些股票很可能会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，装点门面在整个日历中的几个场合都是一股强大的力量，不仅仅是在一年中的这个时候。它应该在12月底产生最大的影响，因为1月初查看其投资组合持股的投资者比一年中任何其他月份都多。因此，基金经理会特意在12月31日之前出售亏损股票，以避免不得不报告他们曾经拥有过这些股票的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p><p><blockquote>经理们为了装饰门面而购买的股票的情况恰恰相反。这些股票已经表现良好，经理们希望在季末持股报告中展示这些股票。他们购买化妆品将导致这些股票表现更好——这反过来又会导致它们在新季度到来时回落。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，一月份是上个月表现最差的公司相对于上个月表现最好的公司表现最好的月份——这种模式被称为“短期逆转效应”。下图说明了这一点，它反映了1926年以来的月度数据。七月是这种模式第二强的月份。这也是有道理的，因为继一月之后，七月是投资者通读经纪报表的下一个最常见的时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p><p><blockquote>同样正如预期的那样，在第一季度和第三季度末，季度末的门面装饰不再是一个因素。事实上，正如你从图表中看到的，短期反转效应在4月份甚至不如非季末月份占优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7月短线反转怎么玩</b></blockquote></p><p> As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，交易所交易基金的创建是为了利用短期反转效应。Vesper美国大盘股短期反转策略ETFUTRN“寻求利用近期经历大幅抛售的股票近期反弹的趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p><p><blockquote>由于该基金是最近才在2018年9月创建的，该ETF此后的平均月回报率仅暗示了长期模式。但其7月份的平均回报率（4.1%）好于其他任何月份。</blockquote></p><p> For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何对6月份表现最差的个股感兴趣的人，我构建了以下列表。我从标准普尔1500指数中6月份回报最差的50只股票开始，然后剔除了我的时事通讯表现跟踪服务监控的任何表现最好的时事通讯目前不推荐的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p><p><blockquote>下面列出的15只股票在这一筛选过程中幸存下来。我注意到，平均而言，这15只股票在6月份下跌了15.4%，而标准普尔500SPX指数则上涨了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>  <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>  <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>  <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>  <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>  <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>  <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>  <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>  <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>  <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>  <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>  <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>  <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>  <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>  <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li> </ul> I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Adient PLC ADNT</li><li>阿拉斯加航空集团ALK</li><li>联盟数据系统广告</li><li>美国汽车市场CRMT</li><li>ArcBest ArcB</li><li>固特异轮胎橡胶GT</li><li>KB主页KBH</li><li>LCI工业LCII</li><li>马赛克公司MOS</li><li>快验快</li><li>纽蒙特公司NEM</li><li>欧加农公司OGN</li><li>帕特里克工业PATK</li><li>地区金融射频</li><li>军刀</li></ul>我还注意到，这些股票的平均市净率为3.3，远低于标普500 4.7的比率。低于平均水平的市净率是价值股的标志，价值股会受到短期反转策略的青睐是有道理的。这是因为价值股在6月份的表现明显落后于成长股——但它们的命运可能很快就会改变。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RF":"地区金融","GT":"固特异轮胎橡胶公司","ALK":"阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司","OGN":"Organon & Co","NEM":"纽曼矿业","ARCB":"ArcBest Corporation","PATK":"Patrick Industries","MED":"快验保","KBH":"KB Home","SABR":"Sabre Corporation","ADNT":"Adient PLC","CRMT":"美国汽车行","MOS":"美国美盛","LCII":"LCI Industries"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122056398","content_text":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.\nThat’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.\nTo be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.\nJust the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.\nAs expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.\n\nAlso as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.\nHow to play the short-term reversal in July\nAs is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”\nBecause the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.\nFor anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.\nThe 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&P 500SPX.\n\nAdient PLC ADNT\nAlaska Air Group ALK\nAlliance Data Systems ADS\nAmerica’s Car Mart CRMT\nArcBest ARCB\nGoodyear Tire & Rubber GT\nKB Home KBH\nLCI Industries LCII\nMosaic & Co .MOS\nMedifast MED\nNewmont Corp. NEM\nOrganon & Co. OGN\nPatrick Industries PATK\nRegions Financial RF\nSabre SABR\n\nI also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ALK":0.9,"MOS":0.9,"MED":0.9,"PATK":0.9,"ARCB":0.9,"OGN":0.9,"RF":0.9,"SABR":0.9,"ADNT":0.9,"ADS":0.9,"NEM":0.9,"KBH":0.9,"CRMT":0.9,"LCII":0.9,"GT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369065855,"gmtCreate":1613989780177,"gmtModify":1631892211789,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851333732701","idStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm&nbsp;","listText":"Hmm&nbsp;","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369065855","repostId":"1135994288","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366123678,"gmtCreate":1614414242094,"gmtModify":1703477422530,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851333732701","idStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366123678","repostId":"1117820997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122330418,"gmtCreate":1624596571034,"gmtModify":1631892211706,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851333732701","idStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122330418","repostId":"1136202921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136202921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624591759,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136202921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136202921","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan St","content":"<p><div> Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant. The Apple Analyst:Katy ...</p><p><blockquote><div>苹果公司（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）的股价今年迄今表现低迷，摩根士丹利的一位分析师认为这家科技巨头的股票存在长期买入机会。苹果分析师：凯蒂...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant. The Apple Analyst:Katy ...</p><p><blockquote><div>苹果公司（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）的股价今年迄今表现低迷，摩根士丹利的一位分析师认为这家科技巨头的股票存在长期买入机会。苹果分析师：凯蒂...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136202921","content_text":"Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant.\nThe Apple Analyst:Katy Huberty reiterated an Overweight rating on Apple with a $162 price target.\nThe Apple Takeaways:The incoming call volume on Apple shares is at a low amid investor concerns over a seasonally low period in the iPhone cycle,regulatory risk and difficult comps relative to the COVID-19-driven work-from-home and study-from-home demand, Huberty said in a note.\nAdditionally, investors fear a more evolutionary iPhone s-cycle will lead to extended iPhone replacement cycles, the analyst said.\nRevenues will likely decline in 2022, increasing the likelihood of negative estimate revisions, she said.\n\"We recognize these risks but have a more positive outlook,\" Huberty said.\nThe dominant bear case narrative now is the iPhone entering a more modest upgrade or \"s\" cycle — a period when iPhone revenue historically declined at a double-digit rate, the analyst said. She forecast a low risk of similar iPhone revenue decline next year.\nThis is due to the longer period of iPhone replacement cycle relative to the past, an expansion to Apple's trade-in, financing and installment offers and 5G adoption, which is still in its nascent stage, Huberty said.\n\"Taken together, these factors build confidence that the iPhone 13 cycle will not look like past s-cycles, which is reflected in our updated FY22 iPhone forecast of 231M units,\" the analyst said.\nThe June quarter will be stronger than originally expected, as iPhone and iPad builds are tracking ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimate, she said.\nHuberty raised her June quarter revenue and EPS estimates by 3%-5%.\nApple's catalyst path is more back-end loaded this year, the analyst said.\nThe company can drive low-teens annual revenue growth and high-teens annual EPS growth between fiscal years 2020 and 2023, she said.\n\"At24xFV/FCF, we believe the current valuation presents a good long-term buying opportunity.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368821562,"gmtCreate":1614309654756,"gmtModify":1703476167751,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851333732701","idStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368821562","repostId":"1157194073","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363860656,"gmtCreate":1614125636275,"gmtModify":1631892211751,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851333732701","idStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363860656","repostId":"1198320495","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369195515,"gmtCreate":1614007242437,"gmtModify":1631892211759,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851333732701","idStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ic","listText":"Ic","text":"Ic","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369195515","repostId":"1100241886","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386916641,"gmtCreate":1613125831983,"gmtModify":1631892211819,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851333732701","idStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yep","listText":"Yep","text":"Yep","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386916641","repostId":"2110904027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382616247,"gmtCreate":1613440775989,"gmtModify":1631892211792,"author":{"id":"3570851333732701","authorId":"3570851333732701","name":"Geis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c74f1c9557d348febb452f480fbe90","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851333732701","idStr":"3570851333732701"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool&nbsp;","listText":"Cool&nbsp;","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382616247","repostId":"1185344045","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185344045","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613440524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185344045?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 09:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185344045","media":"Barrons","summary":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk","content":"<p>It is likely that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500科技硬件、存储和外围设备指数很可能陷入泡沫，面临破裂的风险。</blockquote></p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p><blockquote>这是我从哈佛大学三位研究人员的一项研究中得出的结论：罗宾·格林伍德(Robin Greenwood)，金融和银行学教授，担任该机构行为金融和金融稳定项目的主席；经济学教授安德烈·施莱弗；还有杨友，博士。候选人。在他们发表在《金融经济学杂志》2019年1月号上的研究“Fama的泡沫”中，他们分析了1926年以来的美国股市历史，以寻找预测即将破裂的泡沫的方法。</blockquote></p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).</p><p><blockquote>应用研究人员得出的公式，我计算出在未来两年的某个时候，技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数有80%的可能性比现在低40%。该行业一些较知名的公司包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）、希捷科技（STX）和西部数据（WDC）。</blockquote></p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p><blockquote>尽管没有其他行业符合研究人员对泡沫的定义，但另外两个行业接近泡沫。他们也在技术领域：半导体和半导体设备，以及软件。</blockquote></p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>为什么要关注一个可能存在泡沫的行业，而不是整个市场？格林伍德教授告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他和他的研究同事从对泡沫历史的研究中了解到，泡沫“很少是市场范围内的”事件。他说，更常见的是，即使其他行业仍然被低估，市场的某些部分也会出现泡沫。</blockquote></p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在互联网泡沫（所有泡沫之母）的顶峰时期，情况确实如此。格林伍德提醒我们，尽管互联网股票在20世纪90年代末和2000年代初飙升至令人震惊的估值，但市场的其他板块——尤其是价值股——要么估值合理，甚至被低估。在伴随互联网泡沫股票破裂的熊市期间，其他一些行业实际上有所上涨。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员将泡沫定义为任何两年回报率比整体市场至少高出100个百分点的行业。这确实是一个高标准——在1926年至2016年间拥有绩效数据的所有行业中，只有40个行业在这90年期间的任何时候都满足这一定义。</blockquote></p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p><blockquote>当然，并不是所有的泡沫都会破裂，那些破裂的泡沫也不总是马上破裂。研究人员在这里也强加了一个严格的先决条件：一旦一个行业满足了他们对泡沫的定义，如果在随后的两年内，该行业至少损失了40%的价值，他们就认为该行业已经破裂。在满足研究人员泡沫定义的40个行业中，有21个（即53%）破裂。</blockquote></p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，假设未来和过去一样：任何在任何两年内跑赢市场100个百分点的行业在接下来的两年里损失40%或更多的可能性略高于二分之一。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员还研究了当他们收紧或放松对泡沫的定义时，崩盘的概率是如何变化的。当他们将标准设定为仅领先市场50个百分点而不是100个百分点时，崩盘的几率降至仅20%。当他们将标准收紧到150个百分点时，崩溃的概率上升到了80%。</blockquote></p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>后一种概率适用于技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数。根据FactSet的数据，过去两年，它的表现优于标准普尔500指数151个百分点。</blockquote></p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易将教授们的公式应用于个别证券，就像我自己过去所做的那样。例如，2017年11月，我用这个公式论证了比特币撞车的几率大于80%。在接下来的12个月里，它下跌了67%。2020年2月，我再次使用教授们的公式来论证特斯拉(TSLA)崩溃的几率为80%。该股在接下来的六周内下跌了59%。</blockquote></p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p><blockquote>当然，从那时起，特斯拉和比特币就像许多其他飞涨的资产一样飙升。我问格林伍德，我是否应该再次预测他们崩溃的可能性很高？他表示反对，强调需要进一步研究影响个股崩盘几率的各种因素。</blockquote></p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他补充说，他认为不仅整个股市被高估，而且市场中的个别部分也“存在令人难以置信的泡沫”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 09:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is likely that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500科技硬件、存储和外围设备指数很可能陷入泡沫，面临破裂的风险。</blockquote></p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p><blockquote>这是我从哈佛大学三位研究人员的一项研究中得出的结论：罗宾·格林伍德(Robin Greenwood)，金融和银行学教授，担任该机构行为金融和金融稳定项目的主席；经济学教授安德烈·施莱弗；还有杨友，博士。候选人。在他们发表在《金融经济学杂志》2019年1月号上的研究“Fama的泡沫”中，他们分析了1926年以来的美国股市历史，以寻找预测即将破裂的泡沫的方法。</blockquote></p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).</p><p><blockquote>应用研究人员得出的公式，我计算出在未来两年的某个时候，技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数有80%的可能性比现在低40%。该行业一些较知名的公司包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）、希捷科技（STX）和西部数据（WDC）。</blockquote></p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p><blockquote>尽管没有其他行业符合研究人员对泡沫的定义，但另外两个行业接近泡沫。他们也在技术领域：半导体和半导体设备，以及软件。</blockquote></p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>为什么要关注一个可能存在泡沫的行业，而不是整个市场？格林伍德教授告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他和他的研究同事从对泡沫历史的研究中了解到，泡沫“很少是市场范围内的”事件。他说，更常见的是，即使其他行业仍然被低估，市场的某些部分也会出现泡沫。</blockquote></p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在互联网泡沫（所有泡沫之母）的顶峰时期，情况确实如此。格林伍德提醒我们，尽管互联网股票在20世纪90年代末和2000年代初飙升至令人震惊的估值，但市场的其他板块——尤其是价值股——要么估值合理，甚至被低估。在伴随互联网泡沫股票破裂的熊市期间，其他一些行业实际上有所上涨。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员将泡沫定义为任何两年回报率比整体市场至少高出100个百分点的行业。这确实是一个高标准——在1926年至2016年间拥有绩效数据的所有行业中，只有40个行业在这90年期间的任何时候都满足这一定义。</blockquote></p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p><blockquote>当然，并不是所有的泡沫都会破裂，那些破裂的泡沫也不总是马上破裂。研究人员在这里也强加了一个严格的先决条件：一旦一个行业满足了他们对泡沫的定义，如果在随后的两年内，该行业至少损失了40%的价值，他们就认为该行业已经破裂。在满足研究人员泡沫定义的40个行业中，有21个（即53%）破裂。</blockquote></p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，假设未来和过去一样：任何在任何两年内跑赢市场100个百分点的行业在接下来的两年里损失40%或更多的可能性略高于二分之一。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员还研究了当他们收紧或放松对泡沫的定义时，崩盘的概率是如何变化的。当他们将标准设定为仅领先市场50个百分点而不是100个百分点时，崩盘的几率降至仅20%。当他们将标准收紧到150个百分点时，崩溃的概率上升到了80%。</blockquote></p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>后一种概率适用于技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数。根据FactSet的数据，过去两年，它的表现优于标准普尔500指数151个百分点。</blockquote></p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易将教授们的公式应用于个别证券，就像我自己过去所做的那样。例如，2017年11月，我用这个公式论证了比特币撞车的几率大于80%。在接下来的12个月里，它下跌了67%。2020年2月，我再次使用教授们的公式来论证特斯拉(TSLA)崩溃的几率为80%。该股在接下来的六周内下跌了59%。</blockquote></p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p><blockquote>当然，从那时起，特斯拉和比特币就像许多其他飞涨的资产一样飙升。我问格林伍德，我是否应该再次预测他们崩溃的可能性很高？他表示反对，强调需要进一步研究影响个股崩盘几率的各种因素。</blockquote></p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他补充说，他认为不仅整个股市被高估，而且市场中的个别部分也“存在令人难以置信的泡沫”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果","TSLA":"特斯拉","WDC":"西部数据","STX":"希捷科技",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185344045","content_text":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and Western Digital(WDC).Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood toldBarron’sthat he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 151 percentage points.One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WDC":0.9,"STX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}