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2021-11-15

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2021-08-30

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2021-07-08

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2021-09-07

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Chip prices set to rise into 2022 as TSMC hikes rates<blockquote>随着台积电加息，芯片价格将在2022年上涨</blockquote>

2021-09-01

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2021-08-06

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The S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive<blockquote>标普500看起来很强劲——但这些“内部因素”远没有那么积极</blockquote>

2021-08-01

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2021-07-28

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2021-07-27

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Tesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars<blockquote>特斯拉销量猛增98%；公司提高了成本较低的电动汽车的利润率</blockquote>

2021-07-25

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Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-11-29

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Here's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀对周一股市交易可能意味着什么</blockquote>

2021-09-03

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2021-08-15

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These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这10只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>

2021-08-03

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2021-07-23

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2021-07-21

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2021-08-21

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2021-08-05

Yes

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2021-08-02

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2021-07-22

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07:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀对周一股市交易可能意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2187329491","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.What isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do","content":"<p>OMG, omicron!</p><p><blockquote>天哪，奥密克戎！</blockquote></p><p> The new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>世界卫生组织宣布的新型快速传播的B.1.1.529冠状病毒变种在黑色星期五扰乱了全球市场，引发了人们对未来一周经济和华尔街表现的担忧。标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数11月份的涨幅被抹去，道琼斯工业平均指数创下2020年10月28日以来的最大单日跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> WHO said that the omicron variant, which has been detected in Belgium, Israel, and Hong Kong and was first identified in southern parts of Africa, is more transmissible than the delta strain that is currently dominant world-wide, and other variants.</p><p><blockquote>世卫组织表示，已在比利时、以色列和香港发现并首先在非洲南部地区发现的奥密克戎变种比目前在全球范围内占主导地位的德尔塔毒株和其他变种更具传播性。</blockquote></p><p> The emergence of the new strain led to the White House announcing restrictions, starting on Monday, on travel for non-U.S. citizens and residents from South Africa, as well as from Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi, joining the European Union, the U.K., Singapore and Japan, which also announced similar travel bans.</p><p><blockquote>新毒株的出现导致白宫宣布从周一开始限制来自南非以及博茨瓦纳、津巴布韦、纳米比亚、莱索托、斯威士兰、莫桑比克和马拉维的非美国公民和居民的旅行，加入了欧盟、英国、新加坡和日本的行列，这些国家也宣布了类似的旅行禁令。</blockquote></p><p> The market selloff during the abbreviated Black Friday session and the commensurate flight to assets that investors hope will perform better amid fresh mobility restrictions, helped to overshadow the usual focus on retail, on a day associated with heavy consumer spending ahead of the Christmas holiday. Friday's downturn also offered a crystal clear reminder that the path of the market and economy hinges on the course of COVID.</p><p><blockquote>短暂的黑色星期五交易期间的市场抛售，以及投资者希望在新的流动性限制中表现更好的资产的相应外逃，有助于掩盖通常对零售业的关注，而这一天与圣诞节假期前消费者支出旺盛有关。周五的低迷也清楚地提醒人们，市场和经济的发展取决于新冠疫情的进程。</blockquote></p><p> What isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do lasting harm to the complexion of the market. Omicron comes at a fragile time for optimistic investors, with bears pointing to lofty stock market valuations, inflation worries and global economic growth concerns as reasons to expect a drawdown in equities that have managed to avoid a decline from a peak of more than 5%.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚的是，冠状病毒的最新发展是否会对市场格局造成持久损害。对于乐观的投资者来说，奥密克戎正值脆弱时期，空头指出，股市估值过高、通胀担忧和全球经济增长担忧是预计股市将下跌的理由，而股市已成功避免了从超过5%的峰值下跌。</blockquote></p><p> In theory, Friday's post-Thanksgiving environment is traditionally lightly traded and therefore more susceptible to outsize price swings.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，周五感恩节后的环境传统上交易清淡，因此更容易受到价格大幅波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq saw its lowest volume of the year on Black Friday, with 3.479 billion shares trading hands, well below the year-to-date average of 5.099 billion. The total composite volume, including trading on Intercontinental Exchange&nbsp;-owned NYSE platforms, was 8.760 billion, compared with an year-to-date average of 11.196 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克在黑色星期五创下今年最低成交量，交易量为34.79亿股，远低于今年迄今50.99亿股的平均水平。根据道琼斯市场数据，包括洲际交易所旗下纽约证券交易所平台的交易在内的综合交易量为87.60亿美元，而今年迄今的平均交易量为111.96亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Still, only time will tell whether the reaction to omicron is a textbook, knee-jerk selloff or something more sinister.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，只有时间才能证明对奥密克戎的反应是教科书式的、下意识的抛售还是更险恶的东西。</blockquote></p><p> MarketWatch's Bill Watts wrote, citing Friday research from Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, that the next level of support to watch for the S&amp;P 500 after closing at 4,594,62 on Friday is at 4,570, the 50-day exponential average; 4,566, the 38.2% retracement of the rally; and 4,550, a previous high from early September.</p><p><blockquote>MarketWatch的Bill Watts援引Arbeter Investments的Mark Arbeter周五的研究写道，在周五收于4,594, 62点后，标普500值得关注的下一个支撑位是4,570点，即50天指数平均线；4,566，反弹38.2%回撤位；4550，为9月初以来的新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"It is too early to know to what extent the new variant will affect economies and markets, and Friday's market moves have probably been exacerbated by reduced liquidity owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the risk that further bad news emerges over the weekend,\" writes Jonas Goltermann senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday research note.</p><p><blockquote>“现在知道新变种将在多大程度上影响经济和市场还为时过早，周五的市场走势可能因美国感恩节假期导致流动性减少以及周末出现进一步坏消息的风险而加剧，”凯投宏观高级市场经济学家乔纳斯·戈尔特曼(Jonas Goltermann)在周五的一份研究报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> J.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog writes that things could get dicey if the S&amp;P 500 is driven below 4,500, with little support beneath that point.</p><p><blockquote>J.C.All Star Charts博客的Parets写道，如果标普500跌破4,500点，事情可能会变得危险，并且低于该点几乎没有支撑。</blockquote></p><p> \"You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&amp;P 500, nothing good happens below 4500,\" he writes in a Friday blog.</p><p><blockquote>“你知道父母总是告诉你午夜之后就不会有好事发生吗？在标普500，低于4500点就不会有好事发生，”他在周五的博客中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfdc3ebd8825870bc713469baf0d1b2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>All Star Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全明星图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted,\" Parets writes.</p><p><blockquote>帕雷茨写道：“如果我们低于这个水平，那么可能存在更大的问题，18个月内最重的现金头寸将是合理的。”</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts say that there are legitimate reasons for unease, on the public health front.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析人士表示，在公共卫生方面，有合理的理由感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fact that this variant seems to be spreading much faster than previous versions (including the Delta variant) bears very careful monitoring,\" wrote Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, in a research note. There are some questions about the effectiveness of existing COVID vaccines from Pfizer&nbsp;and Moderna&nbsp;due to the number of mutations that the omicron variant bears on the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus targeted by COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷全球首席投资官Michael Strobaek在一份研究报告中写道：“这种变种似乎比以前的版本（包括德尔塔变异毒株）传播得更快，这一事实值得非常仔细的监控。”由于奥密克戎变种在刺突蛋白上携带的突变数量，辉瑞和Moderna现有新冠疫苗的有效性存在一些疑问。刺突蛋白是新冠肺炎疫苗针对的病毒部分。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst at Jefferies led by analyst Sean Darby note that risk-appetite was already edging lower before Black Friday and the selloff may have been a \"tipping point\" in favor of caution and risk moderation.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师肖恩·达比(Sean Darby)领导的分析师指出，在黑色星期五之前，风险偏好已经小幅走低，抛售可能是有利于谨慎和风险适度的“转折点”。</blockquote></p><p> \"The news of a new or not so new COVID variant spreading in Southern Africaappears to have been the tipping point in altering risk appetite in the past 24 hours,\" the Jefferies analyst wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞分析师写道：“一种新的或不那么新的新冠病毒变种在南部非洲传播的消息似乎是过去24小时内改变风险偏好的转折点。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"However, there has been a sea change in risk variables over the past month -- anincreasing number of 'tailed treasury auctions', declining equity market breadth andthe imperceptible change in US retail appetite that seems to have gone unnoticed.Positioning in global equities is one of the most aggressive in US history,\" according to Darby and his colleagues.</p><p><blockquote>“然而，过去一个月风险变量发生了翻天覆地的变化——‘尾部国债拍卖’数量不断增加，股市广度下降，以及美国散户兴趣似乎没有被注意到的难以察觉的变化。全球股市的定位是美国历史上最激进的之一，”达比和他的同事表示。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies research suggests that investors are now expecting that the Federal Reserve, under renominated Chairman Jerome Powell, will hasten the pace of reductions in the central bank's asset purchases, which will lead to tighter financial conditions that could prove unfavorable to risky assets. Goldman Sachs sees the Fed stepping up tapering to $30 billion a month from a reduction of $15 billion, and estimates three policy interest rate increases in 2022, up from two.</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies research表示，投资者现在预计，在重新提名的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的领导下，美联储将加快缩减央行资产购买的步伐，这将导致金融状况收紧，可能对风险资产不利。高盛预计美联储将从每月减少150亿美元的缩减规模增加到300亿美元，并预计2022年将加息三次，高于两次。</blockquote></p><p> \"Ultimately the Sharpe ratio -- a measure of return per unit of risk -- isturning for global equities. We expect the gap between the performance of risky and safe haven assets to diminish,\" Jefferies wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞写道：“最终，全球股市的夏普比率（衡量单位风险回报的指标）正在发生变化。我们预计风险资产和避险资产表现之间的差距将缩小。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2b6cd6fadb4dd80d04e06539404155\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>via Jefferies</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过杰弗里斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The situation could still prove a buying opportunity for bold investors, however.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于大胆的投资者来说，这种情况仍然可能是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> Strobaek wrote that \"risk assets such as equities are likely to give back some strength, but we would see this as an opportunity in selective and specific areas.\"</p><p><blockquote>Strobaek写道，“股票等风险资产可能会恢复一些实力，但我们认为这是选择性和特定领域的机会。”</blockquote></p><p> \"At this point, we reiterate our assessment from the latest Investment Committee report, i.e. keeping equities at a small overweight in portfolios and government bonds at an underweight,\" the Credit Suisse CIO writes.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席信息官写道：“目前，我们重申投资委员会最新报告中的评估，即将投资组合中的股票保持在较小的跑赢大盘，将政府债券保持在跑输大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at Citigroup also said that \"we would buy into any dip,\" noting that its bearish checklist doesn't indicate significant red flags. \"Valuations look stretched, but other factors (credit spreads, fund flows) are not yet especially extended,\" Citi writes, with 7.5 out of 18 red flags triggered in its measures of global markets while the U.S. is seeing 9.5 of 18.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团分析师还表示，“我们会逢低买入”，并指出其看跌清单并未表明重大危险信号。花旗写道：“估值看起来很高，但其他因素（信用利差、资金流）尚未特别扩大。”在其对全球市场的衡量中，18个危险信号中有7.5个被触发，而美国的危险信号中有9.5个被触发。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4fba734970a8c977a13d6972402b65f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Citi Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>花旗研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in Port Chester, NY says that the end-of-week selling may have resulted in a Black Friday sale for stock-market investors.</p><p><blockquote>纽约州切斯特港AXS Investments首席执行官格雷格·巴苏克(Greg Bassuk)表示，周末的抛售可能导致股市投资者出现黑色星期五抛售。</blockquote></p><p> \"Black Friday is typically the unofficial kick-off to the annual holiday shopping season. But we believe the real shopping is for stocks that are beaten-down from Covid infection spikes, inflation fears, and supply chain woes, but that still possess strong fundamentals that will drive their gains as the economy ultimately reopens,\" he wrote</p><p><blockquote>“黑色星期五通常是一年一度的假日购物季的非正式开始。但我们认为，真正的购物是那些因新冠感染激增、通胀担忧和供应链困境而遭受重创，但仍拥有强劲基本面的股票。随着经济最终重新开放，这将推动他们的上涨，”他写道</blockquote></p><p> That said, some analysts note that the lockdowns playing out in Europe and the spread of COVID, even before the omicron declaration, were reasons to be cautious since they will impact the global growth outlook.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，一些分析师指出，即使在《奥密克戎宣言》发表之前，欧洲的封锁和新冠病毒的传播也是保持谨慎的理由，因为它们将影响全球增长前景。</blockquote></p><p> Either way, it seems that a degree of caveat emptor may be in force next week and could color trading for the remainder of the 2021.</p><p><blockquote>不管怎样，某种程度的买者自负似乎可能会在下周生效，并可能影响2021年剩余时间的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Trading on Monday will help determine whether bullishness persists or if a bearish phase is crystallizing.</p><p><blockquote>周一的交易将有助于确定看涨情绪是否持续，或者看跌阶段是否正在具体化。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a week focused on the state of employment, with the November U.S. jobs report due at the end of the week and Powell and others offering their final thoughts before a media blackout period starting ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of 2021 on Dec. 14-15.</p><p><blockquote>这将是关注就业状况的一周，11月美国就业报告将于本周末发布，鲍威尔和其他人将在联邦公开市场委员会2021年最后一次会议之前开始的媒体封锁期之前发表最终想法12月14日至15日。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀对周一股市交易可能意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀对周一股市交易可能意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-29 07:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OMG, omicron!</p><p><blockquote>天哪，奥密克戎！</blockquote></p><p> The new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>世界卫生组织宣布的新型快速传播的B.1.1.529冠状病毒变种在黑色星期五扰乱了全球市场，引发了人们对未来一周经济和华尔街表现的担忧。标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数11月份的涨幅被抹去，道琼斯工业平均指数创下2020年10月28日以来的最大单日跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> WHO said that the omicron variant, which has been detected in Belgium, Israel, and Hong Kong and was first identified in southern parts of Africa, is more transmissible than the delta strain that is currently dominant world-wide, and other variants.</p><p><blockquote>世卫组织表示，已在比利时、以色列和香港发现并首先在非洲南部地区发现的奥密克戎变种比目前在全球范围内占主导地位的德尔塔毒株和其他变种更具传播性。</blockquote></p><p> The emergence of the new strain led to the White House announcing restrictions, starting on Monday, on travel for non-U.S. citizens and residents from South Africa, as well as from Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi, joining the European Union, the U.K., Singapore and Japan, which also announced similar travel bans.</p><p><blockquote>新毒株的出现导致白宫宣布从周一开始限制来自南非以及博茨瓦纳、津巴布韦、纳米比亚、莱索托、斯威士兰、莫桑比克和马拉维的非美国公民和居民的旅行，加入了欧盟、英国、新加坡和日本的行列，这些国家也宣布了类似的旅行禁令。</blockquote></p><p> The market selloff during the abbreviated Black Friday session and the commensurate flight to assets that investors hope will perform better amid fresh mobility restrictions, helped to overshadow the usual focus on retail, on a day associated with heavy consumer spending ahead of the Christmas holiday. Friday's downturn also offered a crystal clear reminder that the path of the market and economy hinges on the course of COVID.</p><p><blockquote>短暂的黑色星期五交易期间的市场抛售，以及投资者希望在新的流动性限制中表现更好的资产的相应外逃，有助于掩盖通常对零售业的关注，而这一天与圣诞节假期前消费者支出旺盛有关。周五的低迷也清楚地提醒人们，市场和经济的发展取决于新冠疫情的进程。</blockquote></p><p> What isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do lasting harm to the complexion of the market. Omicron comes at a fragile time for optimistic investors, with bears pointing to lofty stock market valuations, inflation worries and global economic growth concerns as reasons to expect a drawdown in equities that have managed to avoid a decline from a peak of more than 5%.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚的是，冠状病毒的最新发展是否会对市场格局造成持久损害。对于乐观的投资者来说，奥密克戎正值脆弱时期，空头指出，股市估值过高、通胀担忧和全球经济增长担忧是预计股市将下跌的理由，而股市已成功避免了从超过5%的峰值下跌。</blockquote></p><p> In theory, Friday's post-Thanksgiving environment is traditionally lightly traded and therefore more susceptible to outsize price swings.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，周五感恩节后的环境传统上交易清淡，因此更容易受到价格大幅波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq saw its lowest volume of the year on Black Friday, with 3.479 billion shares trading hands, well below the year-to-date average of 5.099 billion. The total composite volume, including trading on Intercontinental Exchange&nbsp;-owned NYSE platforms, was 8.760 billion, compared with an year-to-date average of 11.196 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克在黑色星期五创下今年最低成交量，交易量为34.79亿股，远低于今年迄今50.99亿股的平均水平。根据道琼斯市场数据，包括洲际交易所旗下纽约证券交易所平台的交易在内的综合交易量为87.60亿美元，而今年迄今的平均交易量为111.96亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Still, only time will tell whether the reaction to omicron is a textbook, knee-jerk selloff or something more sinister.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，只有时间才能证明对奥密克戎的反应是教科书式的、下意识的抛售还是更险恶的东西。</blockquote></p><p> MarketWatch's Bill Watts wrote, citing Friday research from Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, that the next level of support to watch for the S&amp;P 500 after closing at 4,594,62 on Friday is at 4,570, the 50-day exponential average; 4,566, the 38.2% retracement of the rally; and 4,550, a previous high from early September.</p><p><blockquote>MarketWatch的Bill Watts援引Arbeter Investments的Mark Arbeter周五的研究写道，在周五收于4,594, 62点后，标普500值得关注的下一个支撑位是4,570点，即50天指数平均线；4,566，反弹38.2%回撤位；4550，为9月初以来的新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"It is too early to know to what extent the new variant will affect economies and markets, and Friday's market moves have probably been exacerbated by reduced liquidity owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the risk that further bad news emerges over the weekend,\" writes Jonas Goltermann senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday research note.</p><p><blockquote>“现在知道新变种将在多大程度上影响经济和市场还为时过早，周五的市场走势可能因美国感恩节假期导致流动性减少以及周末出现进一步坏消息的风险而加剧，”凯投宏观高级市场经济学家乔纳斯·戈尔特曼(Jonas Goltermann)在周五的一份研究报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> J.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog writes that things could get dicey if the S&amp;P 500 is driven below 4,500, with little support beneath that point.</p><p><blockquote>J.C.All Star Charts博客的Parets写道，如果标普500跌破4,500点，事情可能会变得危险，并且低于该点几乎没有支撑。</blockquote></p><p> \"You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&amp;P 500, nothing good happens below 4500,\" he writes in a Friday blog.</p><p><blockquote>“你知道父母总是告诉你午夜之后就不会有好事发生吗？在标普500，低于4500点就不会有好事发生，”他在周五的博客中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfdc3ebd8825870bc713469baf0d1b2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>All Star Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全明星图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted,\" Parets writes.</p><p><blockquote>帕雷茨写道：“如果我们低于这个水平，那么可能存在更大的问题，18个月内最重的现金头寸将是合理的。”</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts say that there are legitimate reasons for unease, on the public health front.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析人士表示，在公共卫生方面，有合理的理由感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fact that this variant seems to be spreading much faster than previous versions (including the Delta variant) bears very careful monitoring,\" wrote Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, in a research note. There are some questions about the effectiveness of existing COVID vaccines from Pfizer&nbsp;and Moderna&nbsp;due to the number of mutations that the omicron variant bears on the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus targeted by COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷全球首席投资官Michael Strobaek在一份研究报告中写道：“这种变种似乎比以前的版本（包括德尔塔变异毒株）传播得更快，这一事实值得非常仔细的监控。”由于奥密克戎变种在刺突蛋白上携带的突变数量，辉瑞和Moderna现有新冠疫苗的有效性存在一些疑问。刺突蛋白是新冠肺炎疫苗针对的病毒部分。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst at Jefferies led by analyst Sean Darby note that risk-appetite was already edging lower before Black Friday and the selloff may have been a \"tipping point\" in favor of caution and risk moderation.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师肖恩·达比(Sean Darby)领导的分析师指出，在黑色星期五之前，风险偏好已经小幅走低，抛售可能是有利于谨慎和风险适度的“转折点”。</blockquote></p><p> \"The news of a new or not so new COVID variant spreading in Southern Africaappears to have been the tipping point in altering risk appetite in the past 24 hours,\" the Jefferies analyst wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞分析师写道：“一种新的或不那么新的新冠病毒变种在南部非洲传播的消息似乎是过去24小时内改变风险偏好的转折点。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"However, there has been a sea change in risk variables over the past month -- anincreasing number of 'tailed treasury auctions', declining equity market breadth andthe imperceptible change in US retail appetite that seems to have gone unnoticed.Positioning in global equities is one of the most aggressive in US history,\" according to Darby and his colleagues.</p><p><blockquote>“然而，过去一个月风险变量发生了翻天覆地的变化——‘尾部国债拍卖’数量不断增加，股市广度下降，以及美国散户兴趣似乎没有被注意到的难以察觉的变化。全球股市的定位是美国历史上最激进的之一，”达比和他的同事表示。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies research suggests that investors are now expecting that the Federal Reserve, under renominated Chairman Jerome Powell, will hasten the pace of reductions in the central bank's asset purchases, which will lead to tighter financial conditions that could prove unfavorable to risky assets. Goldman Sachs sees the Fed stepping up tapering to $30 billion a month from a reduction of $15 billion, and estimates three policy interest rate increases in 2022, up from two.</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies research表示，投资者现在预计，在重新提名的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的领导下，美联储将加快缩减央行资产购买的步伐，这将导致金融状况收紧，可能对风险资产不利。高盛预计美联储将从每月减少150亿美元的缩减规模增加到300亿美元，并预计2022年将加息三次，高于两次。</blockquote></p><p> \"Ultimately the Sharpe ratio -- a measure of return per unit of risk -- isturning for global equities. We expect the gap between the performance of risky and safe haven assets to diminish,\" Jefferies wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞写道：“最终，全球股市的夏普比率（衡量单位风险回报的指标）正在发生变化。我们预计风险资产和避险资产表现之间的差距将缩小。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2b6cd6fadb4dd80d04e06539404155\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>via Jefferies</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过杰弗里斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The situation could still prove a buying opportunity for bold investors, however.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于大胆的投资者来说，这种情况仍然可能是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> Strobaek wrote that \"risk assets such as equities are likely to give back some strength, but we would see this as an opportunity in selective and specific areas.\"</p><p><blockquote>Strobaek写道，“股票等风险资产可能会恢复一些实力，但我们认为这是选择性和特定领域的机会。”</blockquote></p><p> \"At this point, we reiterate our assessment from the latest Investment Committee report, i.e. keeping equities at a small overweight in portfolios and government bonds at an underweight,\" the Credit Suisse CIO writes.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席信息官写道：“目前，我们重申投资委员会最新报告中的评估，即将投资组合中的股票保持在较小的跑赢大盘，将政府债券保持在跑输大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at Citigroup also said that \"we would buy into any dip,\" noting that its bearish checklist doesn't indicate significant red flags. \"Valuations look stretched, but other factors (credit spreads, fund flows) are not yet especially extended,\" Citi writes, with 7.5 out of 18 red flags triggered in its measures of global markets while the U.S. is seeing 9.5 of 18.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团分析师还表示，“我们会逢低买入”，并指出其看跌清单并未表明重大危险信号。花旗写道：“估值看起来很高，但其他因素（信用利差、资金流）尚未特别扩大。”在其对全球市场的衡量中，18个危险信号中有7.5个被触发，而美国的危险信号中有9.5个被触发。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4fba734970a8c977a13d6972402b65f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Citi Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>花旗研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in Port Chester, NY says that the end-of-week selling may have resulted in a Black Friday sale for stock-market investors.</p><p><blockquote>纽约州切斯特港AXS Investments首席执行官格雷格·巴苏克(Greg Bassuk)表示，周末的抛售可能导致股市投资者出现黑色星期五抛售。</blockquote></p><p> \"Black Friday is typically the unofficial kick-off to the annual holiday shopping season. But we believe the real shopping is for stocks that are beaten-down from Covid infection spikes, inflation fears, and supply chain woes, but that still possess strong fundamentals that will drive their gains as the economy ultimately reopens,\" he wrote</p><p><blockquote>“黑色星期五通常是一年一度的假日购物季的非正式开始。但我们认为，真正的购物是那些因新冠感染激增、通胀担忧和供应链困境而遭受重创，但仍拥有强劲基本面的股票。随着经济最终重新开放，这将推动他们的上涨，”他写道</blockquote></p><p> That said, some analysts note that the lockdowns playing out in Europe and the spread of COVID, even before the omicron declaration, were reasons to be cautious since they will impact the global growth outlook.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，一些分析师指出，即使在《奥密克戎宣言》发表之前，欧洲的封锁和新冠病毒的传播也是保持谨慎的理由，因为它们将影响全球增长前景。</blockquote></p><p> Either way, it seems that a degree of caveat emptor may be in force next week and could color trading for the remainder of the 2021.</p><p><blockquote>不管怎样，某种程度的买者自负似乎可能会在下周生效，并可能影响2021年剩余时间的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Trading on Monday will help determine whether bullishness persists or if a bearish phase is crystallizing.</p><p><blockquote>周一的交易将有助于确定看涨情绪是否持续，或者看跌阶段是否正在具体化。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a week focused on the state of employment, with the November U.S. jobs report due at the end of the week and Powell and others offering their final thoughts before a media blackout period starting ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of 2021 on Dec. 14-15.</p><p><blockquote>这将是关注就业状况的一周，11月美国就业报告将于本周末发布，鲍威尔和其他人将在联邦公开市场委员会2021年最后一次会议之前开始的媒体封锁期之前发表最终想法12月14日至15日。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-black-friday-carnage-may-mean-for-the-stock-markets-trade-monday-analysts-say-11638021516?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4007":"制药","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4139":"生物科技","ICE":"洲际交易所","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","PFE":"辉瑞",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-black-friday-carnage-may-mean-for-the-stock-markets-trade-monday-analysts-say-11638021516?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2187329491","content_text":"OMG, omicron!\nThe new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.\nWHO said that the omicron variant, which has been detected in Belgium, Israel, and Hong Kong and was first identified in southern parts of Africa, is more transmissible than the delta strain that is currently dominant world-wide, and other variants.\nThe emergence of the new strain led to the White House announcing restrictions, starting on Monday, on travel for non-U.S. citizens and residents from South Africa, as well as from Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi, joining the European Union, the U.K., Singapore and Japan, which also announced similar travel bans.\nThe market selloff during the abbreviated Black Friday session and the commensurate flight to assets that investors hope will perform better amid fresh mobility restrictions, helped to overshadow the usual focus on retail, on a day associated with heavy consumer spending ahead of the Christmas holiday. Friday's downturn also offered a crystal clear reminder that the path of the market and economy hinges on the course of COVID.\nWhat isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do lasting harm to the complexion of the market. Omicron comes at a fragile time for optimistic investors, with bears pointing to lofty stock market valuations, inflation worries and global economic growth concerns as reasons to expect a drawdown in equities that have managed to avoid a decline from a peak of more than 5%.\nIn theory, Friday's post-Thanksgiving environment is traditionally lightly traded and therefore more susceptible to outsize price swings.\nThe Nasdaq saw its lowest volume of the year on Black Friday, with 3.479 billion shares trading hands, well below the year-to-date average of 5.099 billion. The total composite volume, including trading on Intercontinental Exchange -owned NYSE platforms, was 8.760 billion, compared with an year-to-date average of 11.196 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nStill, only time will tell whether the reaction to omicron is a textbook, knee-jerk selloff or something more sinister.\nMarketWatch's Bill Watts wrote, citing Friday research from Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, that the next level of support to watch for the S&P 500 after closing at 4,594,62 on Friday is at 4,570, the 50-day exponential average; 4,566, the 38.2% retracement of the rally; and 4,550, a previous high from early September.\n\"It is too early to know to what extent the new variant will affect economies and markets, and Friday's market moves have probably been exacerbated by reduced liquidity owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the risk that further bad news emerges over the weekend,\" writes Jonas Goltermann senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday research note.\nJ.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog writes that things could get dicey if the S&P 500 is driven below 4,500, with little support beneath that point.\n\"You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&P 500, nothing good happens below 4500,\" he writes in a Friday blog.\nAll Star Charts\n\"If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted,\" Parets writes.\nSome analysts say that there are legitimate reasons for unease, on the public health front.\n\"The fact that this variant seems to be spreading much faster than previous versions (including the Delta variant) bears very careful monitoring,\" wrote Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, in a research note. There are some questions about the effectiveness of existing COVID vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna due to the number of mutations that the omicron variant bears on the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus targeted by COVID-19 vaccines.\nAnalyst at Jefferies led by analyst Sean Darby note that risk-appetite was already edging lower before Black Friday and the selloff may have been a \"tipping point\" in favor of caution and risk moderation.\n\"The news of a new or not so new COVID variant spreading in Southern Africaappears to have been the tipping point in altering risk appetite in the past 24 hours,\" the Jefferies analyst wrote.\n\"However, there has been a sea change in risk variables over the past month -- anincreasing number of 'tailed treasury auctions', declining equity market breadth andthe imperceptible change in US retail appetite that seems to have gone unnoticed.Positioning in global equities is one of the most aggressive in US history,\" according to Darby and his colleagues.\nJefferies research suggests that investors are now expecting that the Federal Reserve, under renominated Chairman Jerome Powell, will hasten the pace of reductions in the central bank's asset purchases, which will lead to tighter financial conditions that could prove unfavorable to risky assets. Goldman Sachs sees the Fed stepping up tapering to $30 billion a month from a reduction of $15 billion, and estimates three policy interest rate increases in 2022, up from two.\n\"Ultimately the Sharpe ratio -- a measure of return per unit of risk -- isturning for global equities. We expect the gap between the performance of risky and safe haven assets to diminish,\" Jefferies wrote.\nvia Jefferies\nThe situation could still prove a buying opportunity for bold investors, however.\nStrobaek wrote that \"risk assets such as equities are likely to give back some strength, but we would see this as an opportunity in selective and specific areas.\"\n\"At this point, we reiterate our assessment from the latest Investment Committee report, i.e. keeping equities at a small overweight in portfolios and government bonds at an underweight,\" the Credit Suisse CIO writes.\nAnalysts at Citigroup also said that \"we would buy into any dip,\" noting that its bearish checklist doesn't indicate significant red flags. \"Valuations look stretched, but other factors (credit spreads, fund flows) are not yet especially extended,\" Citi writes, with 7.5 out of 18 red flags triggered in its measures of global markets while the U.S. is seeing 9.5 of 18.\nCiti Research\nGreg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in Port Chester, NY says that the end-of-week selling may have resulted in a Black Friday sale for stock-market investors.\n\"Black Friday is typically the unofficial kick-off to the annual holiday shopping season. But we believe the real shopping is for stocks that are beaten-down from Covid infection spikes, inflation fears, and supply chain woes, but that still possess strong fundamentals that will drive their gains as the economy ultimately reopens,\" he wrote\nThat said, some analysts note that the lockdowns playing out in Europe and the spread of COVID, even before the omicron declaration, were reasons to be cautious since they will impact the global growth outlook.\nEither way, it seems that a degree of caveat emptor may be in force next week and could color trading for the remainder of the 2021.\nTrading on Monday will help determine whether bullishness persists or if a bearish phase is crystallizing.\nIt will be a week focused on the state of employment, with the November U.S. jobs report due at the end of the week and Powell and others offering their final thoughts before a media blackout period starting ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of 2021 on Dec. 14-15.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9,"ICE":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"END":0.9,"PFE":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875229117,"gmtCreate":1637659472171,"gmtModify":1637659472349,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875229117","repostId":"2185638587","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2185638587","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1637659145,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2185638587?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 17:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For November 23, 2021<blockquote>2021年11月23日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2185638587","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\tWall Street expects  Best Buy Co Inc  (NYSE: BBY) to report quarterly earnings at $1.91 per share on revenue of $11.56 billion before the opening bell. Best Buy shares rose 0.7% to $139.00 in after-hours trading.\n","content":"<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能引起投资者关注的一些股票包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects <b> Best Buy Co Inc </b> (NYSE:BBY) to report quarterly earnings at $1.91 per share on revenue of $11.56 billion before the opening bell. Best Buy shares rose 0.7% to $139.00 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video Communications Inc </b> (NASDAQ:ZM) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter on Monday. The company reported its customers that contribute more than $100,000 in the trailing 12 months totaled 2,507, up 94% year-over-year. Zoom Video shares, however, dropped 6.8% to $225.80 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting <b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLTR\">Dollar Tree, Inc.</a> </b> (NASDAQ:DLTR) to have earned $0.96 per share on revenue of $6.41 billion in the recent quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Dollar Tree shares fell 0.7% to $131.70 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/URBN\">Urban Outfitters</a>, Inc.</b> (NASDAQ:URBN) posted upbeat earnings and sales results for the third quarter. Its same-store sales climbed 14.6% year-over-year during the quarter. Urban Outfitters shares tumbled 12.1% to $32.78 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts expect <b> HP Inc </b> (NYSE:HPQ) to post quarterly earnings at $0.88 per share on revenue of $15.40 billion after the closing bell. HP shares rose 0.2% to $32.00 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预计<b>百思买公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BBY）将在开盘前公布季度收益为每股1.91美元，营收为115.6亿美元。百思买股价在盘后交易中上涨0.7%，至139.00美元。</li><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>视频通信公司</b>（纳斯达克：ZM）周一公布了好于预期的第三季度业绩。该公司报告称，过去12个月捐款超过10万美元的客户总数为2,507人，同比增长94%。然而，Zoom Video股价在盘后交易时段下跌6.8%，至225.80美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLTR\">美元树公司。</a></b>（纳斯达克股票代码：DLTR）最近一个季度每股收益0.96美元，营收为64.1亿美元。该公司将在开市前发布财报。Dollar Tree股价在盘后交易中下跌0.7%，至131.70美元。</li></ul><ul><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/URBN\">城市服装店</a>，公司。</b>（纳斯达克：URBN）公布了乐观的第三季度盈利和销售业绩。本季度同店销售额同比增长14.6%。Urban Outfitters股价在盘后交易时段下跌12.1%，至32.78美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>惠普公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HPQ）收盘后公布季度收益为每股0.88美元，营收为154亿美元。惠普股价在盘后交易中上涨0.2%，至32.00美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For November 23, 2021<blockquote>2021年11月23日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For November 23, 2021<blockquote>2021年11月23日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-23 17:19</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能引起投资者关注的一些股票包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects <b> Best Buy Co Inc </b> (NYSE:BBY) to report quarterly earnings at $1.91 per share on revenue of $11.56 billion before the opening bell. Best Buy shares rose 0.7% to $139.00 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video Communications Inc </b> (NASDAQ:ZM) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter on Monday. The company reported its customers that contribute more than $100,000 in the trailing 12 months totaled 2,507, up 94% year-over-year. Zoom Video shares, however, dropped 6.8% to $225.80 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting <b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLTR\">Dollar Tree, Inc.</a> </b> (NASDAQ:DLTR) to have earned $0.96 per share on revenue of $6.41 billion in the recent quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Dollar Tree shares fell 0.7% to $131.70 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/URBN\">Urban Outfitters</a>, Inc.</b> (NASDAQ:URBN) posted upbeat earnings and sales results for the third quarter. Its same-store sales climbed 14.6% year-over-year during the quarter. Urban Outfitters shares tumbled 12.1% to $32.78 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts expect <b> HP Inc </b> (NYSE:HPQ) to post quarterly earnings at $0.88 per share on revenue of $15.40 billion after the closing bell. HP shares rose 0.2% to $32.00 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预计<b>百思买公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BBY）将在开盘前公布季度收益为每股1.91美元，营收为115.6亿美元。百思买股价在盘后交易中上涨0.7%，至139.00美元。</li><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>视频通信公司</b>（纳斯达克：ZM）周一公布了好于预期的第三季度业绩。该公司报告称，过去12个月捐款超过10万美元的客户总数为2,507人，同比增长94%。然而，Zoom Video股价在盘后交易时段下跌6.8%，至225.80美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLTR\">美元树公司。</a></b>（纳斯达克股票代码：DLTR）最近一个季度每股收益0.96美元，营收为64.1亿美元。该公司将在开市前发布财报。Dollar Tree股价在盘后交易中下跌0.7%，至131.70美元。</li></ul><ul><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/URBN\">城市服装店</a>，公司。</b>（纳斯达克：URBN）公布了乐观的第三季度盈利和销售业绩。本季度同店销售额同比增长14.6%。Urban Outfitters股价在盘后交易时段下跌12.1%，至32.78美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>惠普公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HPQ）收盘后公布季度收益为每股0.88美元，营收为154亿美元。惠普股价在盘后交易中上涨0.2%，至32.00美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BBY":"百思买","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4094":"服装零售","ZM":"Zoom","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4114":"综合货品商店","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4567":"ESG概念","DLTR":"美元树公司","BK4076":"电脑与电子产品零售","URBN":"都市服饰","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2185638587","content_text":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\nWall Street expects  Best Buy Co Inc  (NYSE:BBY) to report quarterly earnings at $1.91 per share on revenue of $11.56 billion before the opening bell. Best Buy shares rose 0.7% to $139.00 in after-hours trading.\nZoom Video Communications Inc  (NASDAQ:ZM) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter on Monday. The company reported its customers that contribute more than $100,000 in the trailing 12 months totaled 2,507, up 94% year-over-year. Zoom Video shares, however, dropped 6.8% to $225.80 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts are expecting  Dollar Tree, Inc.  (NASDAQ:DLTR) to have earned $0.96 per share on revenue of $6.41 billion in the recent quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Dollar Tree shares fell 0.7% to $131.70 in after-hours trading.\n\n\nUrban Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ:URBN) posted upbeat earnings and sales results for the third quarter. Its same-store sales climbed 14.6% year-over-year during the quarter. Urban Outfitters shares tumbled 12.1% to $32.78 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts expect  HP Inc  (NYSE:HPQ) to post quarterly earnings at $0.88 per share on revenue of $15.40 billion after the closing bell. HP shares rose 0.2% to $32.00 in after-hours trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9,"URBN":0.9,"DLTR":0.9,"BBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873248493,"gmtCreate":1636952669999,"gmtModify":1636952670221,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873248493","repostId":"2183536049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853845750,"gmtCreate":1634792641753,"gmtModify":1634792642448,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853845750","repostId":"1118528593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118528593","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634788571,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118528593?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-21 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: Heads I Win, Tails I Win<blockquote>PayPal：正面我赢，反面我赢</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118528593","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFirst, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS.\nSecond, I explain how this improv","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>First, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS.</li>  <li>Second, I explain how this improved PYPL's price for investors.</li>  <li>Third, I describe how PINS fits into PYPL and how it could be accretive.</li>  <li>Fourth, I also outline why a \"dead deal\" is also quite acceptable.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44adcd1b54b3a4b65c37aded8b348f75\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1009\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sean Gallup/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>首先，我简单讨论一下有关PYPL购买PIN的消息。</li><li>其次，我向投资者解释这如何提高PYPL的价格。</li><li>第三，我描述了PINS如何融入PYPL，以及它是如何增值的。</li><li>第四，我还概述了为什么“死交易”也是可以接受的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>肖恩·盖洛普/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The purpose of this article is to take a big picture view of PayPal (PYPL) in light of the recent news regarding PYPL buying Pinterest (PINS). Quite frankly, I don't care if they buy PINS or the deal falls through. That's what I'm covering.</p><p><blockquote>本文的目的是根据最近有关PYPL收购Pinterest(PINS)的消息，全面了解PayPal(PYPL)。坦白地说，我不在乎他们是买别针还是交易失败。这就是我要报道的。</blockquote></p><p> Here's how the article plays out. First, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS. Second, I explain how this improved PYPL's price for investors. Third, I describe how PINS fits into PYPL and it could be good. However, fourth, I also outline why a \"dead deal\" is also acceptable.</p><p><blockquote>这篇文章是这样展开的。首先，我简单讨论一下有关PYPL购买PIN的消息。其次，我向投资者解释这如何提高PYPL的价格。第三，我描述了引脚如何适应PYPL，这可能是好的。然而，第四，我也概述了为什么“死交易”也是可以接受的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The \"Shocking\" News</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“令人震惊”的消息</b></blockquote></p><p> If you're reading this, then you're probably already familiar with the news. As Bloomberg reports,PayPal Is Exploring a Purchase of Pinterest.</p><p><blockquote>如果你正在读这篇文章，那么你可能已经熟悉了这个新闻。据彭博社报道，PayPal正在考虑收购Pinterest。</blockquote></p><p>   San Jose, California-based PayPal has recently approached Pinterest about a potential deal, the people said, asking not to be identified because the talks are private. The companies have discussed a potential price of around $70 a share, the people said.    That would value Pinterest at about $45 billion for the entire company, including its Class B shares. A deal at that level would represent about a 26% premium to Pinterest’s Tuesday closing price of $55.58.  And, as a result, here's what happened:</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，总部位于加州圣荷西的PayPal最近就一项潜在交易与Pinterest接洽。由于谈判是私下进行的，他们要求匿名。知情人士称，两家公司已经讨论了每股70美元左右的潜在价格。这将使Pinterest整个公司（包括其B类股）的估值约为450亿美元。该水平的交易将比Pinterest周二收盘价55.58美元溢价约26%。结果，事情是这样的：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0cbd27e17802078aeed4126cdf0e93d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might laugh that I'm showing the six month chart and that's the point. In six months, PYPL from $264 to $258, for a slight drift down. PINS is actually down about 25% over six months, from $71 to $63, for a pretty big drop. For PINS, the 13% gain today was a real gift, at least in terms of price action.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会笑我展示了六个月的图表，这就是重点。六个月内，PYPL从264美元跌至258美元，小幅下跌。PINS实际上在六个月内下跌了约25%，从71美元跌至63美元，跌幅相当大。对于PINS来说，今天13%的涨幅是一份真正的礼物，至少就价格走势而言是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take another peek at this, in a much shorter timeframe. From a price perspective alone,<i>in just one day</i>, it's easy to see huge changes:</p><p><blockquote>让我们在更短的时间内再看一看这个。单从价格来看，<i>在短短一天内</i>，很容易看到巨大的变化：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a27f8e192506cc9637083edd81c405\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa06cd8a6b48ca229a014e6c5440d294\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"557\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it sure does look like PINS is on fire and PYPL is taking a hit. But, as per my very first chart above, PINS is still weak on price, even after the movement today. And, PYPL is close to breakeven from six months ago.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，PINS确实着火了，PYPL也受到了打击。但是，根据我上面的第一张图表，即使在今天的走势之后，PINS的价格仍然疲软。而且，PYPL与六个月前相比已接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> In an absolute sense, I care far less about PINS than PYPL, since I own PYPL and I like the company. So, there's a bias, just to be 100% clear.</p><p><blockquote>从绝对意义上来说，我对PIN的关心远不如PYPL，因为我拥有PYPL并且我喜欢这家公司。所以，有偏见，只是100%清楚。</blockquote></p><p> With that perspective out of the way, and my bias on full display, let's take a look at what this all means for investors -<i>especially PYPL investors</i>.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这种观点，并充分展示我的偏见，让我们看看这一切对投资者意味着什么——<i>尤其是PYPL投资者</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Heads I Win, Part 1</p><p><blockquote>我赢了头，第1部分</blockquote></p><p> So, when the news broke, I expected a slight drop in PYPL. When I saw the drop down below $260, I got greedy. For the record, I bought more PYPL at $255.62 with a smile on my face.</p><p><blockquote>因此，当消息传出时，我预计PYPL会小幅下跌。当我看到跌破260美元时，我变得贪婪了。根据记录，我以255.62美元的价格购买了更多PYPL，脸上带着微笑。</blockquote></p><p> PYPL got cheaper but the value is the same, or better, as it was just 1-2 days ago. I'll explain more shortly. For now, just consider my point of view, which is that the price of PYPL went lower so I got more for my money. I ended up with a 5% discount because of some moderately good news. (More on that soon.)</p><p><blockquote>PYPL变得更便宜了，但价值与1-2天前相同，甚至更好。我很快会解释更多。现在，只需考虑我的观点，即PYPL的价格下降了，所以我的钱得到了更多。因为一些适度的好消息，我最终得到了5%的折扣。（很快会有更多介绍。）</blockquote></p><p> So, before going on, I strongly encourage you to review an article that I wrote back in early August 2021:PayPal: The Star Business.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在继续之前，我强烈建议您回顾一下我在2021年8月初写的一篇文章：PayPal：明星业务。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PYPL is in a high growth industry.</li>  <li>PYPL commands significant market share.</li>  <li>PYPL is growing very fast.</li>  <li>PYPL is innovating like crazy.</li> </ul> Furthermore, I was very clear:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PYPL处于高增长行业。</li><li>PYPL拥有重要的市场份额。</li><li>PYPL增长非常快。</li><li>PYPL正在疯狂创新。</li></ul>而且，我说得很清楚：</blockquote></p><p>   I'm very bullish on PYPL below $250 and I'm bullish at $275. And, in fact, I've established a starter position recently at $275. I'll continue to add small amounts on the way down, if that happens.  Therefore, at $255, I feel very good about buying more PYPL. It's high quality, well managed business, in a rapidly growing market. In short, when the price dropped about 5%,<i>it simply meant getting more PYPL at a discount</i>.</p><p><blockquote>我非常看好PYPL低于250美元，我看好275美元。事实上，我最近在275美元建立了起始头寸。如果发生这种情况，我会在下跌过程中继续少量增加。因此，在255美元的时候，我对购买更多的PYPL感觉非常好。在一个快速增长的市场中，这是一项高质量、管理良好的业务。总之，在价格下跌5%左右的时候，<i>这只是意味着以折扣价获得更多PYPL</i>.</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tails I Win</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我赢了</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's suppose that the PINS deal falls through. In that case, I am happy because I was able to purchase more PYPL at a lower price. Again, same company, but a better bargain.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们假设别针交易失败了。在这种情况下，我很高兴，因为我能够以更低的价格购买更多的PYPL。同样，同一家公司，但更划算。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Furthermore, let's assume the deal falls through and markets reflect on this. It's my feeling that investors will simply reprice PYPL back upwards, toward $270 to $275, or higher.</p><p><blockquote>此外，让我们假设交易失败，市场对此进行了反思。我的感觉是，投资者只会将PYPL重新定价，升至270美元至275美元，甚至更高。</blockquote></p><p> I have no idea how long that \"rerating\" would take, but there's no reason to think that an offer to buy PINS would permanently impair PYPL. I just don't see it. Making an offer doesn't usually cause any real damage. If you have data otherwise, please offer it up.</p><p><blockquote>我不知道“重新评级”需要多长时间，但没有理由认为购买PIN的要约会永久损害PYPL。我就是看不出来。出价通常不会造成任何真正的损害。如果你有其他数据，请提供。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Heads I Win, Part 2</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我赢了，第2部分</b></blockquote></p><p> With all of that out of the way, perhaps PINS is a good company, and it's good for PYPL. Well, on the surface, I like what I see here:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，也许PINS是一家好公司，这对PYPL来说是件好事。嗯，从表面上看，我喜欢我在这里看到的：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4128074a4ab4bea3095477286834fe0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"502\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Business of Apps</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：应用业务</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And, the user base is growing strongly, although Q2 2021 took a dip:</p><p><blockquote>而且，尽管2021年第二季度有所下降，但用户群仍在强劲增长：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2dc758204cd1b7173cfdc68b4af6f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Business of Apps</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：应用业务</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here's more color on that drop:</p><p><blockquote>以下是水滴上更多颜色：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3819d2ba7bf53060011a2edb152ce91f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Pinterest Q2 2021 Earnings Report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Pinterest 2021年第二季度收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The drop doesn't worry me too much. After all, Pinterest enjoyed a boost due to the stay-at-home, work-from-home effects of the pandemic. Furthermore, you can see the actual YoY numbers, quarter to quarter, and they are at least satisfactory.</p><p><blockquote>下降并没有让我太担心。毕竟，由于疫情的居家、在家工作的影响，Pinterest受到了提振。此外，你可以看到实际的同比数字，季度到季度，它们至少是令人满意的。</blockquote></p><p> For what it's worth, PINS CEO Benjamin Silbermann&nbsp;explains the drop off&nbsp;it quite well:</p><p><blockquote>就其价值而言，PINS首席执行官Benjamin Silbermann很好地解释了其下降的原因：</blockquote></p><p>   One, overall time at home has shifted. And two, a lot of the use cases that were especially relevant last year, things like redecorating your home, educating your kid at home, cooking meals at home, those have lessened. Now it's early to say how those will normalize over time. I wouldn't describe the current user behavior or the current social environment exactly the same, but we're seeing some promising early signs.  That perfectly lines up with my intuition as well.<i>Moving on.</i></p><p><blockquote>第一，在家的总体时间发生了变化。第二，去年特别相关的很多用例，比如重新装修你的家，在家教育你的孩子，在家做饭，这些都减少了。现在说这些将如何随着时间的推移正常化还为时过早。我不会完全相同地描述当前的用户行为或当前的社会环境，但我们看到了一些有希望的早期迹象。这也完全符合我的直觉。<i>继续前进。</i></blockquote></p><p> I'm also enjoying this data, properly broken out for inspection:</p><p><blockquote>我也很喜欢这些数据，这些数据被适当地分解以供检查：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c5df28f93bef395b5a99aa6914b196\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Pinterest Q2 2021 Earnings Report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Pinterest 2021年第二季度收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While I do care about the numbers, and the improvements over time, I'm more interested in what PYPL might see here. That is, users have value, because users are shopping and buying. Imagine if PYPL was able to push more e-commerce, or really any kind of transaction, through these users. Clearly, they spend money.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我确实关心这些数字以及随着时间的推移的改进，但我更感兴趣的是PYPL可能在这里看到的东西。就是用户有价值，因为用户在购物，在购买。想象一下，如果PYPL能够通过这些用户推动更多的电子商务，或者任何类型的交易。显然，他们花钱。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the&nbsp;usage, adoption and general activity flow:</p><p><blockquote>考虑使用、采用和一般活动流程：</blockquote></p><p>   “If PayPal does buy Pinterest, the fintech gains a social media presence rivaling Instagram, bringing in highly engaged consumers and helping merchants sell products,” said Julie Chariell, Bloomberg Intelligence senior fintech industry analyst. “PayPal has much to gain: Pinterest has&nbsp;  <b>380 million monthly active users who use the app 37 times a month, compared with 80 million PayPal users who are active eight to nine times a month</b>.” [Emphasis: Author's]  User activity is wonderful. Now, imagine how user activity isn't just looking at funny cat videos or pictures of the Grand Canyon. Instead, the activity on Pinterest is very heavy on browsing-to-buy, and<i>literally shopping</i>. I mean, that's almost entirely the point from what I gather.The data speaks volumes:</p><p><blockquote>彭博资讯高级金融科技行业分析师Julie Chariell表示：“如果PayPal真的收购Pinterest，这家金融科技公司将获得与Instagram相媲美的社交媒体影响力，吸引高度参与的消费者并帮助商家销售产品。”“PayPal有很多收获：Pinterest有<b>每月使用该应用程序37次的月活跃用户为3.8亿，而每月使用该应用程序8至9次的PayPal用户为8000万</b>[强调：作者的]用户活动非常精彩。现在，想象一下用户活动不仅仅是看有趣的猫视频或大峡谷的图片。相反，Pinterest上的活动非常注重浏览购买，并且<i>字面上的购物</i>.我的意思是，这几乎是我收集到的全部要点。数据说明了一切：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Nearly 80% of U.S. Millennial women are on Pinterest.</li>  <li>4 in 5 U.S. moms have an active presence on Pinterest.</li>  <li>Half of U.S. users are also using Pinterest to shop.</li>  <li>Nearly 9 in 10 users are on Pinterest to plan purchases and find inspiration.</li>  <li>85% of users have made a purchase based on seeing a branded pin.</li> </ul> And, PINS is looking to continue down the&nbsp;user monetization path.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>近80%的美国千禧一代女性休Pinterest。</li><li>五分之四的美国妈妈活跃在Pinterest上。</li><li>一半的美国用户也在使用Pinterest购物。</li><li>近十分之九的用户在Pinterest上计划购买并寻找灵感。</li><li>85%的用户是根据看到品牌pin码进行购买的。</li></ul>而且，PINS希望继续走用户货币化之路。</blockquote></p><p>   “Pinterest has been intently focused on driving greater shoppability into its platform,” and he notes that product inventory grew almost 50% in the second quarter “driven by Pinterest’s Shopify partnership expansion.”  And, I have heard plenty of people talk about PYPL's plans to expand their user base, since they have a relatively easy monetization path if they have the users.For example:</p><p><blockquote>“Pinterest一直专注于提高其平台的购物能力”，他指出，“在Pinterest Shopify合作伙伴关系扩张的推动下”，第二季度产品库存增长了近50%。而且，我听到很多人谈论PYPL扩大用户群的计划，因为如果他们拥有用户，他们就有一条相对容易的货币化途径。例如：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   PayPal has over 400 million registered users, and they are the customers, but they're also the product going forward because PayPal also has over 30 million merchants on its platform and one of its main goals right now,  <b>it's trying to grow its user base, it's trying to get 750 million users by 2025</b>. But it's trying to get them to transact more and more on the platform, that's why it's launching these new products and services like buy now, pay later; cryptocurrency; things like this. It wants to basically know all of the transactions, all the financial dealings of its consumers, because then it can take that data and give it to merchants. [Emphasis: Author's]  I definitely see how PYPL could help take PINS social e-commerce to the next level, and even more effectively partner with Shopify (SHOP) along the way. As I've said to several people now -<i>I don't hate this deal</i>, and that's usually a good sign.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal拥有超过4亿注册用户，他们是客户，但他们也是未来的产品，因为PayPal的平台上也有超过3000万商家，这也是其目前的主要目标之一，<b>它正在努力扩大用户群，力争到2025年拥有7.5亿用户</b>.但它试图让他们在平台上进行越来越多的交易，这就是为什么它推出了这些新产品和服务，如立即购买，稍后付款；加密货币；诸如此类的事情。它希望基本上了解消费者的所有交易、所有金融交易，因为这样它就可以获取这些数据并将其提供给商家。[强调：作者的]我绝对看到PYPL如何帮助将PINS社交电子商务提升到一个新的水平，甚至更有效地与Shopify(SHOP)合作。正如我现在对几个人说的-<i>我不讨厌这笔交易</i>，这通常是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tails I Win, Part 2</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我赢的尾巴，第2部分</b></blockquote></p><p> At this point, per the data above, you might be very keen to see PYPL buying PINS. I am certainly not against it, knowing what I know. PINS users are rather fanatical, and I could see great synergy. It almost reminds me of how PYPL and eBay (EBAY) were once under one roof. But, I think PINS is far superior in this day and age. That is, PYPL is better off with PINS than EBAY at this point in time - I have no doubt about that in my mind.</p><p><blockquote>此时，根据上面的数据，您可能非常渴望看到PYPL购买PIN。我当然不反对，知道我所知道的。PINS用户相当狂热，我可以看到很大的协同作用。这几乎让我想起了PYPL和eBay（eBay）曾经是如何在一个屋檐下的。但是，我认为PINS在这个时代要优越得多。也就是说，在这个时候，PYPL比EBAY更好——我对此毫不怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> I should also mention that&nbsp;the price is better now&nbsp;than when Microsoft (MSFT) was considering a deal:</p><p><blockquote>我还应该提到，现在的价格比微软（MSFT）考虑交易时要好：</blockquote></p><p>   Price tag–wise,  <b>Pinterest’s stock is off roughly 30% from its all-time high</b>&nbsp;in February as the platform has been losing users—a discount from when reports swirled that Microsoft was looking into buying the firm at around $51 billion early this year. [Emphasis: Author's]  Even if the deal falls through, I still see the conversations as being productive, and I still see some partnership activity increasing in the future. You don't need to be married to dance at the party.</p><p><blockquote>价格标签方面，<b>Pinterest股价较历史高点下跌约30%</b>2月份，该平台一直在失去用户——与今年早些时候有报道称微软正在考虑以约510亿美元收购该公司相比，这是一个折扣。[强调：作者的]即使交易失败，我仍然认为对话是富有成效的，并且我仍然认为未来一些合作活动会增加。你不需要结婚才能在派对上跳舞。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, I don't like big deals, but I do like intelligent conversations. Put another way, PYPL is looking to spend $45 billion for PINS. That's huge. And it's&nbsp;messy:</p><p><blockquote>此外，我不喜欢大交易，但我喜欢明智的对话。换句话说，PYPL计划斥资450亿美元购买PIN。那是巨大的。而且很乱：</blockquote></p><p>   Barclays’ El-Assal commented that a deal for Pinterest would be the biggest one that PayPal has attempted in its history and “  <b>would necessitate a different mix of funding than just cash on hand</b>, as has been the case for previous acquisitions.” [Emphasis: Author's]  And...</p><p><blockquote>Barclays的El-Assal评论说，收购Pinterest的交易将是PayPal历史上最大的一笔交易，“<b>需要不同的资金组合，而不仅仅是手头的现金</b>，就像之前的收购一样。”[强调：作者的]和...</blockquote></p><p>   It would be the biggest acquisition of a social media company, surpassing Microsoft Corp's $26.2 billion purchase of LinkedIn in 2016.  They can't just buy it with cash. This isn't a simple \"bolt on\" for PYPL. And, if it fails, quite honestly, I'll cheer a little because the research is against big M&amp;A. According to the<i>Harvard Business Review</i>:</p><p><blockquote>这将是社交媒体公司最大的一笔收购，超过了微软公司2016年以262亿美元收购LinkedIn的交易。他们不能只用现金买。对于PYPL来说，这不是一个简单的“附加”。而且，如果失败了，老实说，我会稍微欢呼一下，因为这项研究反对大型并购。根据<i>哈佛商业评论</i>：</blockquote></p><p>   ...study after study puts the failure rate of mergers and acquisitions somewhere between 70% and 90%.  <b>Wrap-Up</b></p><p><blockquote>一项又一项的研究表明，并购的失败率在70%到90%之间。<b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> I hope a few things are clear. First, I'm bullish on PYPL and I'm happy to be buying at prices around $250. I'm even willing to buy up to $275, but I'll take a lower price, of course. (Thank you for any discount.)</p><p><blockquote>我希望有几件事是清楚的。首先，我看好PYPL，并且很高兴以250美元左右的价格买入。我甚至愿意买275美元，但我当然会接受更低的价格。（谢谢你的任何折扣。）</blockquote></p><p> Second,<i>I do see how PINS could be a great purchase for PYPL</i>. It fits their mission for user growth, and general business growth. The revenue and user monetization opportunity is intriguing, if not excellent. Furthermore, the user base itself likes to shop and buy, which is perfect for PYPL.</p><p><blockquote>第二，<i>我确实看到PIN对于PYPL来说是一个很好的购买</i>.这符合他们的用户增长和整体业务增长的使命。收入和用户货币化的机会即使不是极好，也很吸引人。此外，用户群本身喜欢购物和购买，这对于PYPL来说是完美的。</blockquote></p><p> Third, if the deal does not go through, then I won't be shocked, and I won't be sad. The price for PINS seems about right, and it might even be at a slight discount - especially in its potential long-term value to PYPL. But, if talks fail, it won't cause me to skip a beat, or lose faith in PYPL whatsoever. And, in fact, I might even feel relief. Again,<i>Godzilla-size M&amp;A doesn't have a great record</i>.</p><p><blockquote>第三，如果交易没有通过，那么我不会感到震惊，也不会感到难过。PINS的价格似乎差不多，甚至可能略有折扣——尤其是其对PYPL的潜在长期价值。但是，如果谈判失败，这不会让我跳过一个节拍，或者对PYPL失去信心。事实上，我甚至会感到如释重负。再一次，<i>哥斯拉规模的并购记录并不好</i>.</blockquote></p><p> And, finally, the biggest risk that I see is quite simple. Namely, that PYPL decides to raise the offer price, higher and higher. Right now, the price is acceptable as a PYPL shareholder. But, if the price tag keeps going up, for whatever reason, then I'll be much less enthusiastic. In fact, if the offer price goes up too much, I might have to revise my entire PYPL thesis. Poor capital allocation is deadly. I want a great deal, or no deal. We'll see how it plays out.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我看到的最大风险很简单。也就是说，PYPL决定将要约价格越来越高。目前，作为PYPL股东，这个价格是可以接受的。但是，如果价格标签继续上涨，不管出于什么原因，那么我就不会那么热情了。事实上，如果报价上涨太多，我可能不得不修改我的整个PYPL论文。资本配置不佳是致命的。我想要一笔好交易，否则就不要交易。我们会看到结果如何。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: Heads I Win, Tails I Win<blockquote>PayPal：正面我赢，反面我赢</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Heads I Win, Tails I Win<blockquote>PayPal：正面我赢，反面我赢</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-21 11:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>First, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS.</li>  <li>Second, I explain how this improved PYPL's price for investors.</li>  <li>Third, I describe how PINS fits into PYPL and how it could be accretive.</li>  <li>Fourth, I also outline why a \"dead deal\" is also quite acceptable.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44adcd1b54b3a4b65c37aded8b348f75\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1009\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sean Gallup/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>首先，我简单讨论一下有关PYPL购买PIN的消息。</li><li>其次，我向投资者解释这如何提高PYPL的价格。</li><li>第三，我描述了PINS如何融入PYPL，以及它是如何增值的。</li><li>第四，我还概述了为什么“死交易”也是可以接受的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>肖恩·盖洛普/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The purpose of this article is to take a big picture view of PayPal (PYPL) in light of the recent news regarding PYPL buying Pinterest (PINS). Quite frankly, I don't care if they buy PINS or the deal falls through. That's what I'm covering.</p><p><blockquote>本文的目的是根据最近有关PYPL收购Pinterest(PINS)的消息，全面了解PayPal(PYPL)。坦白地说，我不在乎他们是买别针还是交易失败。这就是我要报道的。</blockquote></p><p> Here's how the article plays out. First, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS. Second, I explain how this improved PYPL's price for investors. Third, I describe how PINS fits into PYPL and it could be good. However, fourth, I also outline why a \"dead deal\" is also acceptable.</p><p><blockquote>这篇文章是这样展开的。首先，我简单讨论一下有关PYPL购买PIN的消息。其次，我向投资者解释这如何提高PYPL的价格。第三，我描述了引脚如何适应PYPL，这可能是好的。然而，第四，我也概述了为什么“死交易”也是可以接受的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The \"Shocking\" News</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“令人震惊”的消息</b></blockquote></p><p> If you're reading this, then you're probably already familiar with the news. As Bloomberg reports,PayPal Is Exploring a Purchase of Pinterest.</p><p><blockquote>如果你正在读这篇文章，那么你可能已经熟悉了这个新闻。据彭博社报道，PayPal正在考虑收购Pinterest。</blockquote></p><p>   San Jose, California-based PayPal has recently approached Pinterest about a potential deal, the people said, asking not to be identified because the talks are private. The companies have discussed a potential price of around $70 a share, the people said.    That would value Pinterest at about $45 billion for the entire company, including its Class B shares. A deal at that level would represent about a 26% premium to Pinterest’s Tuesday closing price of $55.58.  And, as a result, here's what happened:</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，总部位于加州圣荷西的PayPal最近就一项潜在交易与Pinterest接洽。由于谈判是私下进行的，他们要求匿名。知情人士称，两家公司已经讨论了每股70美元左右的潜在价格。这将使Pinterest整个公司（包括其B类股）的估值约为450亿美元。该水平的交易将比Pinterest周二收盘价55.58美元溢价约26%。结果，事情是这样的：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0cbd27e17802078aeed4126cdf0e93d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might laugh that I'm showing the six month chart and that's the point. In six months, PYPL from $264 to $258, for a slight drift down. PINS is actually down about 25% over six months, from $71 to $63, for a pretty big drop. For PINS, the 13% gain today was a real gift, at least in terms of price action.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会笑我展示了六个月的图表，这就是重点。六个月内，PYPL从264美元跌至258美元，小幅下跌。PINS实际上在六个月内下跌了约25%，从71美元跌至63美元，跌幅相当大。对于PINS来说，今天13%的涨幅是一份真正的礼物，至少就价格走势而言是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take another peek at this, in a much shorter timeframe. From a price perspective alone,<i>in just one day</i>, it's easy to see huge changes:</p><p><blockquote>让我们在更短的时间内再看一看这个。单从价格来看，<i>在短短一天内</i>，很容易看到巨大的变化：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a27f8e192506cc9637083edd81c405\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa06cd8a6b48ca229a014e6c5440d294\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"557\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it sure does look like PINS is on fire and PYPL is taking a hit. But, as per my very first chart above, PINS is still weak on price, even after the movement today. And, PYPL is close to breakeven from six months ago.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，PINS确实着火了，PYPL也受到了打击。但是，根据我上面的第一张图表，即使在今天的走势之后，PINS的价格仍然疲软。而且，PYPL与六个月前相比已接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> In an absolute sense, I care far less about PINS than PYPL, since I own PYPL and I like the company. So, there's a bias, just to be 100% clear.</p><p><blockquote>从绝对意义上来说，我对PIN的关心远不如PYPL，因为我拥有PYPL并且我喜欢这家公司。所以，有偏见，只是100%清楚。</blockquote></p><p> With that perspective out of the way, and my bias on full display, let's take a look at what this all means for investors -<i>especially PYPL investors</i>.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这种观点，并充分展示我的偏见，让我们看看这一切对投资者意味着什么——<i>尤其是PYPL投资者</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Heads I Win, Part 1</p><p><blockquote>我赢了头，第1部分</blockquote></p><p> So, when the news broke, I expected a slight drop in PYPL. When I saw the drop down below $260, I got greedy. For the record, I bought more PYPL at $255.62 with a smile on my face.</p><p><blockquote>因此，当消息传出时，我预计PYPL会小幅下跌。当我看到跌破260美元时，我变得贪婪了。根据记录，我以255.62美元的价格购买了更多PYPL，脸上带着微笑。</blockquote></p><p> PYPL got cheaper but the value is the same, or better, as it was just 1-2 days ago. I'll explain more shortly. For now, just consider my point of view, which is that the price of PYPL went lower so I got more for my money. I ended up with a 5% discount because of some moderately good news. (More on that soon.)</p><p><blockquote>PYPL变得更便宜了，但价值与1-2天前相同，甚至更好。我很快会解释更多。现在，只需考虑我的观点，即PYPL的价格下降了，所以我的钱得到了更多。因为一些适度的好消息，我最终得到了5%的折扣。（很快会有更多介绍。）</blockquote></p><p> So, before going on, I strongly encourage you to review an article that I wrote back in early August 2021:PayPal: The Star Business.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在继续之前，我强烈建议您回顾一下我在2021年8月初写的一篇文章：PayPal：明星业务。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PYPL is in a high growth industry.</li>  <li>PYPL commands significant market share.</li>  <li>PYPL is growing very fast.</li>  <li>PYPL is innovating like crazy.</li> </ul> Furthermore, I was very clear:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PYPL处于高增长行业。</li><li>PYPL拥有重要的市场份额。</li><li>PYPL增长非常快。</li><li>PYPL正在疯狂创新。</li></ul>而且，我说得很清楚：</blockquote></p><p>   I'm very bullish on PYPL below $250 and I'm bullish at $275. And, in fact, I've established a starter position recently at $275. I'll continue to add small amounts on the way down, if that happens.  Therefore, at $255, I feel very good about buying more PYPL. It's high quality, well managed business, in a rapidly growing market. In short, when the price dropped about 5%,<i>it simply meant getting more PYPL at a discount</i>.</p><p><blockquote>我非常看好PYPL低于250美元，我看好275美元。事实上，我最近在275美元建立了起始头寸。如果发生这种情况，我会在下跌过程中继续少量增加。因此，在255美元的时候，我对购买更多的PYPL感觉非常好。在一个快速增长的市场中，这是一项高质量、管理良好的业务。总之，在价格下跌5%左右的时候，<i>这只是意味着以折扣价获得更多PYPL</i>.</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tails I Win</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我赢了</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's suppose that the PINS deal falls through. In that case, I am happy because I was able to purchase more PYPL at a lower price. Again, same company, but a better bargain.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们假设别针交易失败了。在这种情况下，我很高兴，因为我能够以更低的价格购买更多的PYPL。同样，同一家公司，但更划算。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Furthermore, let's assume the deal falls through and markets reflect on this. It's my feeling that investors will simply reprice PYPL back upwards, toward $270 to $275, or higher.</p><p><blockquote>此外，让我们假设交易失败，市场对此进行了反思。我的感觉是，投资者只会将PYPL重新定价，升至270美元至275美元，甚至更高。</blockquote></p><p> I have no idea how long that \"rerating\" would take, but there's no reason to think that an offer to buy PINS would permanently impair PYPL. I just don't see it. Making an offer doesn't usually cause any real damage. If you have data otherwise, please offer it up.</p><p><blockquote>我不知道“重新评级”需要多长时间，但没有理由认为购买PIN的要约会永久损害PYPL。我就是看不出来。出价通常不会造成任何真正的损害。如果你有其他数据，请提供。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Heads I Win, Part 2</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我赢了，第2部分</b></blockquote></p><p> With all of that out of the way, perhaps PINS is a good company, and it's good for PYPL. Well, on the surface, I like what I see here:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，也许PINS是一家好公司，这对PYPL来说是件好事。嗯，从表面上看，我喜欢我在这里看到的：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4128074a4ab4bea3095477286834fe0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"502\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Business of Apps</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：应用业务</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And, the user base is growing strongly, although Q2 2021 took a dip:</p><p><blockquote>而且，尽管2021年第二季度有所下降，但用户群仍在强劲增长：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2dc758204cd1b7173cfdc68b4af6f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Business of Apps</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：应用业务</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here's more color on that drop:</p><p><blockquote>以下是水滴上更多颜色：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3819d2ba7bf53060011a2edb152ce91f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Pinterest Q2 2021 Earnings Report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Pinterest 2021年第二季度收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The drop doesn't worry me too much. After all, Pinterest enjoyed a boost due to the stay-at-home, work-from-home effects of the pandemic. Furthermore, you can see the actual YoY numbers, quarter to quarter, and they are at least satisfactory.</p><p><blockquote>下降并没有让我太担心。毕竟，由于疫情的居家、在家工作的影响，Pinterest受到了提振。此外，你可以看到实际的同比数字，季度到季度，它们至少是令人满意的。</blockquote></p><p> For what it's worth, PINS CEO Benjamin Silbermann&nbsp;explains the drop off&nbsp;it quite well:</p><p><blockquote>就其价值而言，PINS首席执行官Benjamin Silbermann很好地解释了其下降的原因：</blockquote></p><p>   One, overall time at home has shifted. And two, a lot of the use cases that were especially relevant last year, things like redecorating your home, educating your kid at home, cooking meals at home, those have lessened. Now it's early to say how those will normalize over time. I wouldn't describe the current user behavior or the current social environment exactly the same, but we're seeing some promising early signs.  That perfectly lines up with my intuition as well.<i>Moving on.</i></p><p><blockquote>第一，在家的总体时间发生了变化。第二，去年特别相关的很多用例，比如重新装修你的家，在家教育你的孩子，在家做饭，这些都减少了。现在说这些将如何随着时间的推移正常化还为时过早。我不会完全相同地描述当前的用户行为或当前的社会环境，但我们看到了一些有希望的早期迹象。这也完全符合我的直觉。<i>继续前进。</i></blockquote></p><p> I'm also enjoying this data, properly broken out for inspection:</p><p><blockquote>我也很喜欢这些数据，这些数据被适当地分解以供检查：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c5df28f93bef395b5a99aa6914b196\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Pinterest Q2 2021 Earnings Report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Pinterest 2021年第二季度收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While I do care about the numbers, and the improvements over time, I'm more interested in what PYPL might see here. That is, users have value, because users are shopping and buying. Imagine if PYPL was able to push more e-commerce, or really any kind of transaction, through these users. Clearly, they spend money.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我确实关心这些数字以及随着时间的推移的改进，但我更感兴趣的是PYPL可能在这里看到的东西。就是用户有价值，因为用户在购物，在购买。想象一下，如果PYPL能够通过这些用户推动更多的电子商务，或者任何类型的交易。显然，他们花钱。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the&nbsp;usage, adoption and general activity flow:</p><p><blockquote>考虑使用、采用和一般活动流程：</blockquote></p><p>   “If PayPal does buy Pinterest, the fintech gains a social media presence rivaling Instagram, bringing in highly engaged consumers and helping merchants sell products,” said Julie Chariell, Bloomberg Intelligence senior fintech industry analyst. “PayPal has much to gain: Pinterest has&nbsp;  <b>380 million monthly active users who use the app 37 times a month, compared with 80 million PayPal users who are active eight to nine times a month</b>.” [Emphasis: Author's]  User activity is wonderful. Now, imagine how user activity isn't just looking at funny cat videos or pictures of the Grand Canyon. Instead, the activity on Pinterest is very heavy on browsing-to-buy, and<i>literally shopping</i>. I mean, that's almost entirely the point from what I gather.The data speaks volumes:</p><p><blockquote>彭博资讯高级金融科技行业分析师Julie Chariell表示：“如果PayPal真的收购Pinterest，这家金融科技公司将获得与Instagram相媲美的社交媒体影响力，吸引高度参与的消费者并帮助商家销售产品。”“PayPal有很多收获：Pinterest有<b>每月使用该应用程序37次的月活跃用户为3.8亿，而每月使用该应用程序8至9次的PayPal用户为8000万</b>[强调：作者的]用户活动非常精彩。现在，想象一下用户活动不仅仅是看有趣的猫视频或大峡谷的图片。相反，Pinterest上的活动非常注重浏览购买，并且<i>字面上的购物</i>.我的意思是，这几乎是我收集到的全部要点。数据说明了一切：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Nearly 80% of U.S. Millennial women are on Pinterest.</li>  <li>4 in 5 U.S. moms have an active presence on Pinterest.</li>  <li>Half of U.S. users are also using Pinterest to shop.</li>  <li>Nearly 9 in 10 users are on Pinterest to plan purchases and find inspiration.</li>  <li>85% of users have made a purchase based on seeing a branded pin.</li> </ul> And, PINS is looking to continue down the&nbsp;user monetization path.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>近80%的美国千禧一代女性休Pinterest。</li><li>五分之四的美国妈妈活跃在Pinterest上。</li><li>一半的美国用户也在使用Pinterest购物。</li><li>近十分之九的用户在Pinterest上计划购买并寻找灵感。</li><li>85%的用户是根据看到品牌pin码进行购买的。</li></ul>而且，PINS希望继续走用户货币化之路。</blockquote></p><p>   “Pinterest has been intently focused on driving greater shoppability into its platform,” and he notes that product inventory grew almost 50% in the second quarter “driven by Pinterest’s Shopify partnership expansion.”  And, I have heard plenty of people talk about PYPL's plans to expand their user base, since they have a relatively easy monetization path if they have the users.For example:</p><p><blockquote>“Pinterest一直专注于提高其平台的购物能力”，他指出，“在Pinterest Shopify合作伙伴关系扩张的推动下”，第二季度产品库存增长了近50%。而且，我听到很多人谈论PYPL扩大用户群的计划，因为如果他们拥有用户，他们就有一条相对容易的货币化途径。例如：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   PayPal has over 400 million registered users, and they are the customers, but they're also the product going forward because PayPal also has over 30 million merchants on its platform and one of its main goals right now,  <b>it's trying to grow its user base, it's trying to get 750 million users by 2025</b>. But it's trying to get them to transact more and more on the platform, that's why it's launching these new products and services like buy now, pay later; cryptocurrency; things like this. It wants to basically know all of the transactions, all the financial dealings of its consumers, because then it can take that data and give it to merchants. [Emphasis: Author's]  I definitely see how PYPL could help take PINS social e-commerce to the next level, and even more effectively partner with Shopify (SHOP) along the way. As I've said to several people now -<i>I don't hate this deal</i>, and that's usually a good sign.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal拥有超过4亿注册用户，他们是客户，但他们也是未来的产品，因为PayPal的平台上也有超过3000万商家，这也是其目前的主要目标之一，<b>它正在努力扩大用户群，力争到2025年拥有7.5亿用户</b>.但它试图让他们在平台上进行越来越多的交易，这就是为什么它推出了这些新产品和服务，如立即购买，稍后付款；加密货币；诸如此类的事情。它希望基本上了解消费者的所有交易、所有金融交易，因为这样它就可以获取这些数据并将其提供给商家。[强调：作者的]我绝对看到PYPL如何帮助将PINS社交电子商务提升到一个新的水平，甚至更有效地与Shopify(SHOP)合作。正如我现在对几个人说的-<i>我不讨厌这笔交易</i>，这通常是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tails I Win, Part 2</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我赢的尾巴，第2部分</b></blockquote></p><p> At this point, per the data above, you might be very keen to see PYPL buying PINS. I am certainly not against it, knowing what I know. PINS users are rather fanatical, and I could see great synergy. It almost reminds me of how PYPL and eBay (EBAY) were once under one roof. But, I think PINS is far superior in this day and age. That is, PYPL is better off with PINS than EBAY at this point in time - I have no doubt about that in my mind.</p><p><blockquote>此时，根据上面的数据，您可能非常渴望看到PYPL购买PIN。我当然不反对，知道我所知道的。PINS用户相当狂热，我可以看到很大的协同作用。这几乎让我想起了PYPL和eBay（eBay）曾经是如何在一个屋檐下的。但是，我认为PINS在这个时代要优越得多。也就是说，在这个时候，PYPL比EBAY更好——我对此毫不怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> I should also mention that&nbsp;the price is better now&nbsp;than when Microsoft (MSFT) was considering a deal:</p><p><blockquote>我还应该提到，现在的价格比微软（MSFT）考虑交易时要好：</blockquote></p><p>   Price tag–wise,  <b>Pinterest’s stock is off roughly 30% from its all-time high</b>&nbsp;in February as the platform has been losing users—a discount from when reports swirled that Microsoft was looking into buying the firm at around $51 billion early this year. [Emphasis: Author's]  Even if the deal falls through, I still see the conversations as being productive, and I still see some partnership activity increasing in the future. You don't need to be married to dance at the party.</p><p><blockquote>价格标签方面，<b>Pinterest股价较历史高点下跌约30%</b>2月份，该平台一直在失去用户——与今年早些时候有报道称微软正在考虑以约510亿美元收购该公司相比，这是一个折扣。[强调：作者的]即使交易失败，我仍然认为对话是富有成效的，并且我仍然认为未来一些合作活动会增加。你不需要结婚才能在派对上跳舞。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, I don't like big deals, but I do like intelligent conversations. Put another way, PYPL is looking to spend $45 billion for PINS. That's huge. And it's&nbsp;messy:</p><p><blockquote>此外，我不喜欢大交易，但我喜欢明智的对话。换句话说，PYPL计划斥资450亿美元购买PIN。那是巨大的。而且很乱：</blockquote></p><p>   Barclays’ El-Assal commented that a deal for Pinterest would be the biggest one that PayPal has attempted in its history and “  <b>would necessitate a different mix of funding than just cash on hand</b>, as has been the case for previous acquisitions.” [Emphasis: Author's]  And...</p><p><blockquote>Barclays的El-Assal评论说，收购Pinterest的交易将是PayPal历史上最大的一笔交易，“<b>需要不同的资金组合，而不仅仅是手头的现金</b>，就像之前的收购一样。”[强调：作者的]和...</blockquote></p><p>   It would be the biggest acquisition of a social media company, surpassing Microsoft Corp's $26.2 billion purchase of LinkedIn in 2016.  They can't just buy it with cash. This isn't a simple \"bolt on\" for PYPL. And, if it fails, quite honestly, I'll cheer a little because the research is against big M&amp;A. According to the<i>Harvard Business Review</i>:</p><p><blockquote>这将是社交媒体公司最大的一笔收购，超过了微软公司2016年以262亿美元收购LinkedIn的交易。他们不能只用现金买。对于PYPL来说，这不是一个简单的“附加”。而且，如果失败了，老实说，我会稍微欢呼一下，因为这项研究反对大型并购。根据<i>哈佛商业评论</i>：</blockquote></p><p>   ...study after study puts the failure rate of mergers and acquisitions somewhere between 70% and 90%.  <b>Wrap-Up</b></p><p><blockquote>一项又一项的研究表明，并购的失败率在70%到90%之间。<b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> I hope a few things are clear. First, I'm bullish on PYPL and I'm happy to be buying at prices around $250. I'm even willing to buy up to $275, but I'll take a lower price, of course. (Thank you for any discount.)</p><p><blockquote>我希望有几件事是清楚的。首先，我看好PYPL，并且很高兴以250美元左右的价格买入。我甚至愿意买275美元，但我当然会接受更低的价格。（谢谢你的任何折扣。）</blockquote></p><p> Second,<i>I do see how PINS could be a great purchase for PYPL</i>. It fits their mission for user growth, and general business growth. The revenue and user monetization opportunity is intriguing, if not excellent. Furthermore, the user base itself likes to shop and buy, which is perfect for PYPL.</p><p><blockquote>第二，<i>我确实看到PIN对于PYPL来说是一个很好的购买</i>.这符合他们的用户增长和整体业务增长的使命。收入和用户货币化的机会即使不是极好，也很吸引人。此外，用户群本身喜欢购物和购买，这对于PYPL来说是完美的。</blockquote></p><p> Third, if the deal does not go through, then I won't be shocked, and I won't be sad. The price for PINS seems about right, and it might even be at a slight discount - especially in its potential long-term value to PYPL. But, if talks fail, it won't cause me to skip a beat, or lose faith in PYPL whatsoever. And, in fact, I might even feel relief. Again,<i>Godzilla-size M&amp;A doesn't have a great record</i>.</p><p><blockquote>第三，如果交易没有通过，那么我不会感到震惊，也不会感到难过。PINS的价格似乎差不多，甚至可能略有折扣——尤其是其对PYPL的潜在长期价值。但是，如果谈判失败，这不会让我跳过一个节拍，或者对PYPL失去信心。事实上，我甚至会感到如释重负。再一次，<i>哥斯拉规模的并购记录并不好</i>.</blockquote></p><p> And, finally, the biggest risk that I see is quite simple. Namely, that PYPL decides to raise the offer price, higher and higher. Right now, the price is acceptable as a PYPL shareholder. But, if the price tag keeps going up, for whatever reason, then I'll be much less enthusiastic. In fact, if the offer price goes up too much, I might have to revise my entire PYPL thesis. Poor capital allocation is deadly. I want a great deal, or no deal. We'll see how it plays out.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我看到的最大风险很简单。也就是说，PYPL决定将要约价格越来越高。目前，作为PYPL股东，这个价格是可以接受的。但是，如果价格标签继续上涨，不管出于什么原因，那么我就不会那么热情了。事实上，如果报价上涨太多，我可能不得不修改我的整个PYPL论文。资本配置不佳是致命的。我想要一笔好交易，否则就不要交易。我们会看到结果如何。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460962-paypal-stock-pinterest-acquisition\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460962-paypal-stock-pinterest-acquisition","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118528593","content_text":"Summary\n\nFirst, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS.\nSecond, I explain how this improved PYPL's price for investors.\nThird, I describe how PINS fits into PYPL and how it could be accretive.\nFourth, I also outline why a \"dead deal\" is also quite acceptable.\n\nSean Gallup/Getty Images News\nThe purpose of this article is to take a big picture view of PayPal (PYPL) in light of the recent news regarding PYPL buying Pinterest (PINS). Quite frankly, I don't care if they buy PINS or the deal falls through. That's what I'm covering.\nHere's how the article plays out. First, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS. Second, I explain how this improved PYPL's price for investors. Third, I describe how PINS fits into PYPL and it could be good. However, fourth, I also outline why a \"dead deal\" is also acceptable.\nThe \"Shocking\" News\nIf you're reading this, then you're probably already familiar with the news. As Bloomberg reports,PayPal Is Exploring a Purchase of Pinterest.\n\n San Jose, California-based PayPal has recently approached Pinterest about a potential deal, the people said, asking not to be identified because the talks are private. The companies have discussed a potential price of around $70 a share, the people said.\n\n\n That would value Pinterest at about $45 billion for the entire company, including its Class B shares. A deal at that level would represent about a 26% premium to Pinterest’s Tuesday closing price of $55.58.\n\nAnd, as a result, here's what happened:\nData by YCharts\nYou might laugh that I'm showing the six month chart and that's the point. In six months, PYPL from $264 to $258, for a slight drift down. PINS is actually down about 25% over six months, from $71 to $63, for a pretty big drop. For PINS, the 13% gain today was a real gift, at least in terms of price action.\nLet's take another peek at this, in a much shorter timeframe. From a price perspective alone,in just one day, it's easy to see huge changes:\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nOn the surface, it sure does look like PINS is on fire and PYPL is taking a hit. But, as per my very first chart above, PINS is still weak on price, even after the movement today. And, PYPL is close to breakeven from six months ago.\nIn an absolute sense, I care far less about PINS than PYPL, since I own PYPL and I like the company. So, there's a bias, just to be 100% clear.\nWith that perspective out of the way, and my bias on full display, let's take a look at what this all means for investors -especially PYPL investors.\nHeads I Win, Part 1\nSo, when the news broke, I expected a slight drop in PYPL. When I saw the drop down below $260, I got greedy. For the record, I bought more PYPL at $255.62 with a smile on my face.\nPYPL got cheaper but the value is the same, or better, as it was just 1-2 days ago. I'll explain more shortly. For now, just consider my point of view, which is that the price of PYPL went lower so I got more for my money. I ended up with a 5% discount because of some moderately good news. (More on that soon.)\nSo, before going on, I strongly encourage you to review an article that I wrote back in early August 2021:PayPal: The Star Business.\n\nPYPL is in a high growth industry.\nPYPL commands significant market share.\nPYPL is growing very fast.\nPYPL is innovating like crazy.\n\nFurthermore, I was very clear:\n\n I'm very bullish on PYPL below $250 and I'm bullish at $275. And, in fact, I've established a starter position recently at $275. I'll continue to add small amounts on the way down, if that happens.\n\nTherefore, at $255, I feel very good about buying more PYPL. It's high quality, well managed business, in a rapidly growing market. In short, when the price dropped about 5%,it simply meant getting more PYPL at a discount.\nTails I Win\nNow, let's suppose that the PINS deal falls through. In that case, I am happy because I was able to purchase more PYPL at a lower price. Again, same company, but a better bargain.\nFurthermore, let's assume the deal falls through and markets reflect on this. It's my feeling that investors will simply reprice PYPL back upwards, toward $270 to $275, or higher.\nI have no idea how long that \"rerating\" would take, but there's no reason to think that an offer to buy PINS would permanently impair PYPL. I just don't see it. Making an offer doesn't usually cause any real damage. If you have data otherwise, please offer it up.\nHeads I Win, Part 2\nWith all of that out of the way, perhaps PINS is a good company, and it's good for PYPL. Well, on the surface, I like what I see here:\nSource: Business of Apps\nAnd, the user base is growing strongly, although Q2 2021 took a dip:\nSource: Business of Apps\nHere's more color on that drop:\nSource: Pinterest Q2 2021 Earnings Report\nThe drop doesn't worry me too much. After all, Pinterest enjoyed a boost due to the stay-at-home, work-from-home effects of the pandemic. Furthermore, you can see the actual YoY numbers, quarter to quarter, and they are at least satisfactory.\nFor what it's worth, PINS CEO Benjamin Silbermann explains the drop off it quite well:\n\n One, overall time at home has shifted. And two, a lot of the use cases that were especially relevant last year, things like redecorating your home, educating your kid at home, cooking meals at home, those have lessened. Now it's early to say how those will normalize over time. I wouldn't describe the current user behavior or the current social environment exactly the same, but we're seeing some promising early signs.\n\nThat perfectly lines up with my intuition as well.Moving on.\nI'm also enjoying this data, properly broken out for inspection:\nSource: Pinterest Q2 2021 Earnings Report\nWhile I do care about the numbers, and the improvements over time, I'm more interested in what PYPL might see here. That is, users have value, because users are shopping and buying. Imagine if PYPL was able to push more e-commerce, or really any kind of transaction, through these users. Clearly, they spend money.\nConsider the usage, adoption and general activity flow:\n\n “If PayPal does buy Pinterest, the fintech gains a social media presence rivaling Instagram, bringing in highly engaged consumers and helping merchants sell products,” said Julie Chariell, Bloomberg Intelligence senior fintech industry analyst. “PayPal has much to gain: Pinterest has \n 380 million monthly active users who use the app 37 times a month, compared with 80 million PayPal users who are active eight to nine times a month.” [Emphasis: Author's]\n\nUser activity is wonderful. Now, imagine how user activity isn't just looking at funny cat videos or pictures of the Grand Canyon. Instead, the activity on Pinterest is very heavy on browsing-to-buy, andliterally shopping. I mean, that's almost entirely the point from what I gather.The data speaks volumes:\n\nNearly 80% of U.S. Millennial women are on Pinterest.\n4 in 5 U.S. moms have an active presence on Pinterest.\nHalf of U.S. users are also using Pinterest to shop.\nNearly 9 in 10 users are on Pinterest to plan purchases and find inspiration.\n85% of users have made a purchase based on seeing a branded pin.\n\nAnd, PINS is looking to continue down the user monetization path.\n\n “Pinterest has been intently focused on driving greater shoppability into its platform,” and he notes that product inventory grew almost 50% in the second quarter “driven by Pinterest’s Shopify partnership expansion.”\n\nAnd, I have heard plenty of people talk about PYPL's plans to expand their user base, since they have a relatively easy monetization path if they have the users.For example:\n\n PayPal has over 400 million registered users, and they are the customers, but they're also the product going forward because PayPal also has over 30 million merchants on its platform and one of its main goals right now,\n it's trying to grow its user base, it's trying to get 750 million users by 2025. But it's trying to get them to transact more and more on the platform, that's why it's launching these new products and services like buy now, pay later; cryptocurrency; things like this. It wants to basically know all of the transactions, all the financial dealings of its consumers, because then it can take that data and give it to merchants. [Emphasis: Author's]\n\nI definitely see how PYPL could help take PINS social e-commerce to the next level, and even more effectively partner with Shopify (SHOP) along the way. As I've said to several people now -I don't hate this deal, and that's usually a good sign.\nTails I Win, Part 2\nAt this point, per the data above, you might be very keen to see PYPL buying PINS. I am certainly not against it, knowing what I know. PINS users are rather fanatical, and I could see great synergy. It almost reminds me of how PYPL and eBay (EBAY) were once under one roof. But, I think PINS is far superior in this day and age. That is, PYPL is better off with PINS than EBAY at this point in time - I have no doubt about that in my mind.\nI should also mention that the price is better now than when Microsoft (MSFT) was considering a deal:\n\n Price tag–wise,\n Pinterest’s stock is off roughly 30% from its all-time high in February as the platform has been losing users—a discount from when reports swirled that Microsoft was looking into buying the firm at around $51 billion early this year. [Emphasis: Author's]\n\nEven if the deal falls through, I still see the conversations as being productive, and I still see some partnership activity increasing in the future. You don't need to be married to dance at the party.\nFurthermore, I don't like big deals, but I do like intelligent conversations. Put another way, PYPL is looking to spend $45 billion for PINS. That's huge. And it's messy:\n\n Barclays’ El-Assal commented that a deal for Pinterest would be the biggest one that PayPal has attempted in its history and “\n would necessitate a different mix of funding than just cash on hand, as has been the case for previous acquisitions.” [Emphasis: Author's]\n\nAnd...\n\n It would be the biggest acquisition of a social media company, surpassing Microsoft Corp's $26.2 billion purchase of LinkedIn in 2016.\n\nThey can't just buy it with cash. This isn't a simple \"bolt on\" for PYPL. And, if it fails, quite honestly, I'll cheer a little because the research is against big M&A. According to theHarvard Business Review:\n\n ...study after study puts the failure rate of mergers and acquisitions somewhere between 70% and 90%.\n\nWrap-Up\nI hope a few things are clear. First, I'm bullish on PYPL and I'm happy to be buying at prices around $250. I'm even willing to buy up to $275, but I'll take a lower price, of course. (Thank you for any discount.)\nSecond,I do see how PINS could be a great purchase for PYPL. It fits their mission for user growth, and general business growth. The revenue and user monetization opportunity is intriguing, if not excellent. Furthermore, the user base itself likes to shop and buy, which is perfect for PYPL.\nThird, if the deal does not go through, then I won't be shocked, and I won't be sad. The price for PINS seems about right, and it might even be at a slight discount - especially in its potential long-term value to PYPL. But, if talks fail, it won't cause me to skip a beat, or lose faith in PYPL whatsoever. And, in fact, I might even feel relief. Again,Godzilla-size M&A doesn't have a great record.\nAnd, finally, the biggest risk that I see is quite simple. Namely, that PYPL decides to raise the offer price, higher and higher. Right now, the price is acceptable as a PYPL shareholder. But, if the price tag keeps going up, for whatever reason, then I'll be much less enthusiastic. In fact, if the offer price goes up too much, I might have to revise my entire PYPL thesis. Poor capital allocation is deadly. I want a great deal, or no deal. We'll see how it plays out.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825752215,"gmtCreate":1634258989397,"gmtModify":1634274403794,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825752215","repostId":"2175185761","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864104878,"gmtCreate":1633066245323,"gmtModify":1633066245974,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864104878","repostId":"2172095220","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":884974417,"gmtCreate":1631852130839,"gmtModify":1631890506184,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884974417","repostId":"1101501778","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817515415,"gmtCreate":1630974701137,"gmtModify":1631890506196,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817515415","repostId":"1113754693","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113754693","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630974255,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113754693?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 08:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chip prices set to rise into 2022 as TSMC hikes rates<blockquote>随着台积电加息，芯片价格将在2022年上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113754693","media":"Nikkei Asia","summary":"Semiconductor and electronics prices are set to rise absent major economic slowdowns\nTSMC's move to ","content":"<p>Semiconductor and electronics prices are set to rise absent major economic slowdowns</p><p><blockquote>如果经济没有重大放缓，半导体和电子产品价格将会上涨</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f6e7393360b1a36607fb16bb8d77f0a\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"788\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>TSMC's move to raise its fees for chip production services took many in the industry by surprise. © AFP/Jiji</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>台积电提高芯片生产服务费用的举动让许多业内人士感到意外。©法新社/时事社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> TAIPEI/HSINCHU, Taiwan -- The price of chips -- and the electronic devices they power -- are on track to rise into 2022 as the world's biggest contract chipmaker joins its rivals in ramping up production fees.</p><p><blockquote>台湾台北/新竹——随着全球最大的合同芯片制造商与其竞争对手一起提高生产费用，芯片及其驱动的电子设备的价格有望在2022年上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Prices of semiconductors have been climbing since the last quarter of 2020 amid a global supply crunch. But news that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. was preparing its&nbsp;biggest price hike in a decade&nbsp;still came as a shock to some, bringing home just how entrenched chip price inflation has become.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年最后一个季度以来，由于全球供应紧缩，半导体价格一直在攀升。但台积电公司准备进行十年来最大幅度提价的消息仍然让一些人感到震惊，让他们明白了芯片价格通胀已经变得多么根深蒂固。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC controls over half the global foundry market, making chips for the likes of Apple, Nvidia and Qualcomm. Known for its cutting-edge tech and high quality, the Taiwanese company normally commands production fees around 20% higher than its rivals, according to industry insiders.</p><p><blockquote>台积电控制着全球一半以上的代工市场，为苹果、英伟达和高通等公司生产芯片。据业内人士称，这家台湾公司以其尖端技术和高质量而闻名，其制作费通常比竞争对手高出20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Since the end of last year, however, smaller foundries have repeatedly ramped up their own prices, so that United Microelectronics, the world's No. 3 player, now charges more than its bigger compatriot for some services, four industry executives told Nikkei Asia.</p><p><blockquote>然而，四位行业高管告诉《日经亚洲》，自去年年底以来，规模较小的代工厂一再提高价格，因此全球第三大制造商联华电子现在在某些服务上的收费高于其规模较大的同胞。</blockquote></p><p> These higher prices stem from a range of factors, including higher material and logistics costs as well as the race by device makers to secure adequate chip supplies, that have emerged since the chip shortage first began to bite late last year.</p><p><blockquote>这些较高的价格源于一系列因素，包括更高的材料和物流成本，以及设备制造商为确保充足的芯片供应而进行的竞赛，这些因素自去年年底芯片短缺首次开始蔓延以来就出现了。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC has been slower than most other chip companies in raising its prices, in part because it already enjoyed such a hefty premium. But with investment costs also rising -- the company has pledged $100 billion in spending over the next three years -- the chip giant felt compelled to&nbsp;pass on some of the burden, sources briefed on the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>台积电提价的速度慢于大多数其他芯片公司，部分原因是它已经享受了如此高的溢价。但知情人士称，随着投资成本也在上升——该公司已承诺在未来三年内支出1000亿美元——这家芯片巨头感到有必要转嫁部分负担。</blockquote></p><p> More urgently, industry sources say, the company is keen to weed out so-called double-booking, in which clients place orders for more chips than they actually need in hopes of securing production line space and support from contract chipmakers amid the global supply crunch. This, in turn, has made it difficult for TSMC to grasp the \"real demand\" picture, sources briefed on the matter told Nikkei.</p><p><blockquote>业内消息人士称，更紧迫的是，该公司热衷于消除所谓的重复预订，即客户订购的芯片数量超过了实际需求，希望在全球供应紧缩的情况下获得生产线空间和合同芯片制造商的支持。知情人士告诉《日经新闻》，这反过来又使台积电难以掌握“真实需求”情况。</blockquote></p><p> Client reactions to the planned price rise are mixed.</p><p><blockquote>客户对计划涨价的反应不一。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are glad that TSMC eventually adjusted prices so that it could fend off the practice of double-booking, when industry players race to secure enough chip production capacity during a shortage,\" K.S. Pua, chairman and CEO of Phison Electronics, told Nikkei. The leading NAND flash controller chip and solution provider is a client of both TSMC and UMC.</p><p><blockquote>“我们很高兴台积电最终调整了价格，以便在行业参与者在短缺期间竞相确保足够的芯片产能时避免重复预订的做法，”K.S.群联电子董事长兼首席执行官普阿告诉《日经新闻》。领先的NAND闪存控制器芯片和解决方案提供商是台积电和联电的客户。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are still short of supplies and want more chip capacity to support our growth for the second half of 2021,\" Pua said.</p><p><blockquote>Pua表示：“我们仍然供应短缺，需要更多芯片产能来支持我们2021年下半年的增长。”</blockquote></p><p> Phison raised its own chip prices around April this year to reflect the rising supply chain costs, and Pua said his company will have discussions with clients about further increases.</p><p><blockquote>群联在今年4月左右提高了自己的芯片价格，以反映供应链成本的上升，Pua表示，他的公司将与客户讨论进一步上涨的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Others, however, have expressed concern over whether they will be able to pass on these higher costs to customers.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其他人则担心他们是否能够将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are all in a great shock and all of our account managers need to speak to our customers to see if we can renegotiate some of the contracts,\" a chip executive told Nikkei. \"We haven't seen TSMC introduce such a broad rate increase in over a decade.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们都感到非常震惊，我们所有的客户经理都需要与客户交谈，看看我们是否可以重新谈判一些合同，”一位芯片高管告诉日经新闻。“我们已经十多年没有看到台积电推出如此广泛的加息了。”</blockquote></p><p> The impact of TSMC's price will be felt more obviously from next year, analysts say, as the company is still working through existing orders. Customers will also negotiate their own specific terms with TSMC before Oct. 1, when the price hikes officially take effect, they said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，从明年开始，台积电价格的影响将更加明显，因为该公司仍在处理现有订单。他们表示，客户还将在10月1日提价正式生效之前与台积电协商自己的具体条款。</blockquote></p><p> Overall chip prices, however, have already surged.</p><p><blockquote>然而，整体芯片价格已经飙升。</blockquote></p><p> According to Dale Gai, research director of Counterpoint Research, chip developers are paying 40% higher production fees for legacy chips that are in the shortest supply.</p><p><blockquote>根据Counterpoint Research的研究主管Dale Gai的说法，芯片开发商正在为供应最短缺的传统芯片支付40%的生产费用。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/201b6c1300dd3cb3b2a783df4cf2a849\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"788\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Electronics makers, meanwhile, face even steeper increases as they try to source enough chips to complete their devices. The price of some microcontroller chips, for example, has jumped from $0.20 each to more than $1, supply chain executives and distributors told Nikkei -- a 400% increase in less than a year.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，电子产品制造商面临着更大的增长，因为他们试图采购足够的芯片来完成他们的设备。例如，供应链高管和分销商告诉《日经新闻》，一些微控制器芯片的价格已从每个0.20美元跃升至1美元以上，在不到一年的时间里上涨了400%。</blockquote></p><p> The reason is that these chips, while not necessarily the most important part of a smartphone or server, are still essential and not easily replaced. Such chips can also be stockpiled more easily than, say, CPUs, which quickly become obsolete, so anyone who has extra inventory can name their price if they find a buyer in need.</p><p><blockquote>原因是这些芯片虽然不一定是智能手机或服务器最重要的部分，但仍然是必不可少的，不容易更换。这种芯片也比CPU更容易储存，CPU很快就会过时，所以任何有额外库存的人都可以在找到有需要的买家时说出价格。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Prices have risen in just about every step of the chip supply chain, from basic materials to chip packing and testing services -- the last step before chips are mounted on printed circuit boards.</p><p><blockquote>从基础材料到芯片封装和测试服务——芯片安装到印刷电路板前的最后一步——芯片供应链的几乎每一步的价格都在上涨。</blockquote></p><p> For top chip developers that outsource production -- namely Qualcomm, Nvidia, MediaTek and Advanced Micro Devices -- this translated to an increase in \"cost of sales\" in 2020, according to a Nikkei analysis. Defined as the total cost of production, materials and delivery of goods, cost of sales continued to surge in the first half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>根据日经新闻的分析，对于外包生产的顶级芯片开发商——即高通、英伟达、联发科和Advanced Micro Devices——来说，这意味着2020年“销售成本”的增加。销售成本定义为生产、材料和货物交付的总成本，在2021年上半年继续飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Mobile chip giant Qualcomm's accumulated cost of sales from last October until June this year jumped nearly 60% on the year, while that of MediaTek, its key Asia rival, increased more than 64% for the same period. Both Qualcomm and MediaTek's revenue surged even more during the period, however, indicating they have adjusted the selling prices of their chips, which are used by the world's major smartphone makers.</p><p><blockquote>移动芯片巨头高通从去年10月到今年6月的累计销售成本同比增长近60%，而其亚洲主要竞争对手联发科同期增长超过64%。然而，高通和联发科的收入在此期间飙升更多，这表明它们已经调整了全球主要智能手机制造商使用的芯片的售价。</blockquote></p><p> Industry players and analysts predict strong chip demand -- and thus higher prices -- to continue into next year.</p><p><blockquote>业内人士和分析师预测，强劲的芯片需求——从而导致价格上涨——将持续到明年。</blockquote></p><p> Doris Hsu, chair and CEO of Globalwafers, the world's third-largest wafer material maker, said the price of wafers -- the essential substrate that all chips are fabricated on -- is set to go up.</p><p><blockquote>全球第三大晶圆材料制造商Globalwafers董事长兼首席执行官Doris Hsu表示，晶圆（制造所有芯片的基本基板）的价格将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> \"Materials and chemicals used in production and transportation logistics costs are all on the rise,\" Hsu said. \"That means we have to adjust the selling price of our wafers, otherwise our profit margin could be affected.\"</p><p><blockquote>“生产中使用的材料和化学品以及运输物流成本都在上升，”Hsu说。“这意味着我们必须调整晶圆的售价，否则我们的利润率可能会受到影响。”</blockquote></p><p> Peter Hanbury, a partner specializing in chip and tech supply chain at Bain &amp; Co., told Nikkei chip prices will likely rise into next year due to the time it takes to expand production capacity.</p><p><blockquote>贝恩公司专门研究芯片和技术供应链的合伙人彼得·汉伯里告诉《日经新闻》，由于扩大产能需要时间，芯片价格可能会在明年上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Chip developers such as Qualcomm, NXP and Nvidia, he added, will likely negotiate to pass these price increases onto their own customers -- namely device makers and electronics builders such as Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, HP, Dell and Ford.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，高通、恩智浦和英伟达等芯片开发商可能会通过谈判将这些价格上涨转嫁给自己的客户，即苹果、三星、小米、惠普、戴尔和福特等设备制造商和电子产品制造商。</blockquote></p><p> \"[For] products like smartphones and PCs, the price increases will be more noticeable, while for other devices with limited semiconductor content you may not even notice,\" Hanbury said, referring to the retail prices.</p><p><blockquote>“对于智能手机和个人电脑等产品，价格上涨将更加明显，而对于其他半导体含量有限的设备，你甚至可能不会注意到，”汉伯里在谈到零售价格时表示。</blockquote></p><p> Gai, of Counterpoint Research, said the rising cost of chips may even impact smartphone makers' business strategies.</p><p><blockquote>Counterpoint Research的Gai表示，芯片成本的上升甚至可能影响智能手机制造商的商业战略。</blockquote></p><p> \"The net profit margin for smartphone makers excluding Apple is only about 5% to 10%. In that case, the rising chip costs will definitely push all the industry players to roll out higher-end handset models for next year to offset the cost impacts rather than focus on midrange or lower-end phones,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“不包括苹果在内的智能手机制造商的净利润率只有5%至10%左右。在这种情况下，芯片成本的上升肯定会推动所有行业参与者在明年推出更高端的手机型号，以抵消成本影响，而不是专注于中端或低端手机，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the race to develop cutting-edge technologies is also expected to keep chip prices high for the long term, particularly the more advanced offerings.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，开发尖端技术的竞赛预计也将使芯片价格长期保持高位，尤其是更先进的产品。</blockquote></p><p> \"Advanced chip production, such as 7-nanometer, 5-nanometer and future 3-nanometer, is extremely expensive,\" Mark Li, a veteran semiconductor analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein, told Nikkei. \"Only TSMC, Samsung and Intel could afford the investment. I am not going to say those advanced chip prices will never fall, but it's not easy for them to go down much given the scale of the investment,\" Li said.</p><p><blockquote>Sanford C.Bernstein资深半导体分析师Mark Li告诉《日经新闻》：“先进的芯片生产，例如7纳米、5纳米和未来的3纳米，成本极其昂贵。”“只有台积电、三星和英特尔有能力承担这项投资。我不会说这些先进芯片的价格永远不会下降，但考虑到投资规模，它们不容易下降太多，”李说。</blockquote></p><p> For smaller players and for more mature production technology, Li said the market \"could be more volatile once there is an economic slowdown. The correction could be quite substantial and quick, too.\"</p><p><blockquote>李表示，对于规模较小的企业和生产技术更成熟的企业，“一旦经济放缓，市场可能会更加波动。调整也可能相当大且迅速。”</blockquote></p><p> Li said the most important factor in determining prices, however, is the same as always: demand.</p><p><blockquote>李说，然而，决定价格的最重要因素一如既往：需求。</blockquote></p><p> \"Chip plants operate like airlines. Airlines must shoulder fixed costs even if there are only one or two passengers on board. Chipmaking plants are the same. If the demand slows, they have to lower prices to lure more clients and maintain utilization rates.\"</p><p><blockquote>“芯片厂的运营就像航空公司，即使机上只有一两名乘客，航空公司也要承担固定成本。芯片制造厂也一样，如果需求放缓，就不得不降低价格来吸引更多客户，维持利用率。”</blockquote></p><p> TSMC told Nikkei that it will not comment on pricing adjustment but referred to CEO C.C. Wei's statement during an earnings briefing in July, when he said, \"TSMC's pricing strategy is strategic, not opportunistic. At the same time, we face manufacturing cost challenges due to increasing process complexity at leading node, new investment in mature nodes, expansion of our global manufacturing footprint and rising materials and basic commodities cost. Therefore, we are firming up our wafer pricing.\"</p><p><blockquote>台积电告诉日经新闻，不会对定价调整发表评论，但提到了首席执行官C.C.魏在7月份的财报简报会上表示，“台积电的定价策略是战略性的，而不是机会主义的。与此同时，由于领先节点的工艺复杂性增加、成熟节点的新投资、全球制造足迹的扩大以及材料和基本商品成本的上涨，我们面临制造成本挑战。因此，我们正在坚定我们的晶圆定价。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chip prices set to rise into 2022 as TSMC hikes rates<blockquote>随着台积电加息，芯片价格将在2022年上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChip prices set to rise into 2022 as TSMC hikes rates<blockquote>随着台积电加息，芯片价格将在2022年上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Nikkei Asia</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 08:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Semiconductor and electronics prices are set to rise absent major economic slowdowns</p><p><blockquote>如果经济没有重大放缓，半导体和电子产品价格将会上涨</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f6e7393360b1a36607fb16bb8d77f0a\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"788\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>TSMC's move to raise its fees for chip production services took many in the industry by surprise. © AFP/Jiji</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>台积电提高芯片生产服务费用的举动让许多业内人士感到意外。©法新社/时事社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> TAIPEI/HSINCHU, Taiwan -- The price of chips -- and the electronic devices they power -- are on track to rise into 2022 as the world's biggest contract chipmaker joins its rivals in ramping up production fees.</p><p><blockquote>台湾台北/新竹——随着全球最大的合同芯片制造商与其竞争对手一起提高生产费用，芯片及其驱动的电子设备的价格有望在2022年上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Prices of semiconductors have been climbing since the last quarter of 2020 amid a global supply crunch. But news that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. was preparing its&nbsp;biggest price hike in a decade&nbsp;still came as a shock to some, bringing home just how entrenched chip price inflation has become.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年最后一个季度以来，由于全球供应紧缩，半导体价格一直在攀升。但台积电公司准备进行十年来最大幅度提价的消息仍然让一些人感到震惊，让他们明白了芯片价格通胀已经变得多么根深蒂固。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC controls over half the global foundry market, making chips for the likes of Apple, Nvidia and Qualcomm. Known for its cutting-edge tech and high quality, the Taiwanese company normally commands production fees around 20% higher than its rivals, according to industry insiders.</p><p><blockquote>台积电控制着全球一半以上的代工市场，为苹果、英伟达和高通等公司生产芯片。据业内人士称，这家台湾公司以其尖端技术和高质量而闻名，其制作费通常比竞争对手高出20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Since the end of last year, however, smaller foundries have repeatedly ramped up their own prices, so that United Microelectronics, the world's No. 3 player, now charges more than its bigger compatriot for some services, four industry executives told Nikkei Asia.</p><p><blockquote>然而，四位行业高管告诉《日经亚洲》，自去年年底以来，规模较小的代工厂一再提高价格，因此全球第三大制造商联华电子现在在某些服务上的收费高于其规模较大的同胞。</blockquote></p><p> These higher prices stem from a range of factors, including higher material and logistics costs as well as the race by device makers to secure adequate chip supplies, that have emerged since the chip shortage first began to bite late last year.</p><p><blockquote>这些较高的价格源于一系列因素，包括更高的材料和物流成本，以及设备制造商为确保充足的芯片供应而进行的竞赛，这些因素自去年年底芯片短缺首次开始蔓延以来就出现了。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC has been slower than most other chip companies in raising its prices, in part because it already enjoyed such a hefty premium. But with investment costs also rising -- the company has pledged $100 billion in spending over the next three years -- the chip giant felt compelled to&nbsp;pass on some of the burden, sources briefed on the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>台积电提价的速度慢于大多数其他芯片公司，部分原因是它已经享受了如此高的溢价。但知情人士称，随着投资成本也在上升——该公司已承诺在未来三年内支出1000亿美元——这家芯片巨头感到有必要转嫁部分负担。</blockquote></p><p> More urgently, industry sources say, the company is keen to weed out so-called double-booking, in which clients place orders for more chips than they actually need in hopes of securing production line space and support from contract chipmakers amid the global supply crunch. This, in turn, has made it difficult for TSMC to grasp the \"real demand\" picture, sources briefed on the matter told Nikkei.</p><p><blockquote>业内消息人士称，更紧迫的是，该公司热衷于消除所谓的重复预订，即客户订购的芯片数量超过了实际需求，希望在全球供应紧缩的情况下获得生产线空间和合同芯片制造商的支持。知情人士告诉《日经新闻》，这反过来又使台积电难以掌握“真实需求”情况。</blockquote></p><p> Client reactions to the planned price rise are mixed.</p><p><blockquote>客户对计划涨价的反应不一。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are glad that TSMC eventually adjusted prices so that it could fend off the practice of double-booking, when industry players race to secure enough chip production capacity during a shortage,\" K.S. Pua, chairman and CEO of Phison Electronics, told Nikkei. The leading NAND flash controller chip and solution provider is a client of both TSMC and UMC.</p><p><blockquote>“我们很高兴台积电最终调整了价格，以便在行业参与者在短缺期间竞相确保足够的芯片产能时避免重复预订的做法，”K.S.群联电子董事长兼首席执行官普阿告诉《日经新闻》。领先的NAND闪存控制器芯片和解决方案提供商是台积电和联电的客户。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are still short of supplies and want more chip capacity to support our growth for the second half of 2021,\" Pua said.</p><p><blockquote>Pua表示：“我们仍然供应短缺，需要更多芯片产能来支持我们2021年下半年的增长。”</blockquote></p><p> Phison raised its own chip prices around April this year to reflect the rising supply chain costs, and Pua said his company will have discussions with clients about further increases.</p><p><blockquote>群联在今年4月左右提高了自己的芯片价格，以反映供应链成本的上升，Pua表示，他的公司将与客户讨论进一步上涨的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Others, however, have expressed concern over whether they will be able to pass on these higher costs to customers.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其他人则担心他们是否能够将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are all in a great shock and all of our account managers need to speak to our customers to see if we can renegotiate some of the contracts,\" a chip executive told Nikkei. \"We haven't seen TSMC introduce such a broad rate increase in over a decade.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们都感到非常震惊，我们所有的客户经理都需要与客户交谈，看看我们是否可以重新谈判一些合同，”一位芯片高管告诉日经新闻。“我们已经十多年没有看到台积电推出如此广泛的加息了。”</blockquote></p><p> The impact of TSMC's price will be felt more obviously from next year, analysts say, as the company is still working through existing orders. Customers will also negotiate their own specific terms with TSMC before Oct. 1, when the price hikes officially take effect, they said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，从明年开始，台积电价格的影响将更加明显，因为该公司仍在处理现有订单。他们表示，客户还将在10月1日提价正式生效之前与台积电协商自己的具体条款。</blockquote></p><p> Overall chip prices, however, have already surged.</p><p><blockquote>然而，整体芯片价格已经飙升。</blockquote></p><p> According to Dale Gai, research director of Counterpoint Research, chip developers are paying 40% higher production fees for legacy chips that are in the shortest supply.</p><p><blockquote>根据Counterpoint Research的研究主管Dale Gai的说法，芯片开发商正在为供应最短缺的传统芯片支付40%的生产费用。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/201b6c1300dd3cb3b2a783df4cf2a849\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"788\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Electronics makers, meanwhile, face even steeper increases as they try to source enough chips to complete their devices. The price of some microcontroller chips, for example, has jumped from $0.20 each to more than $1, supply chain executives and distributors told Nikkei -- a 400% increase in less than a year.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，电子产品制造商面临着更大的增长，因为他们试图采购足够的芯片来完成他们的设备。例如，供应链高管和分销商告诉《日经新闻》，一些微控制器芯片的价格已从每个0.20美元跃升至1美元以上，在不到一年的时间里上涨了400%。</blockquote></p><p> The reason is that these chips, while not necessarily the most important part of a smartphone or server, are still essential and not easily replaced. Such chips can also be stockpiled more easily than, say, CPUs, which quickly become obsolete, so anyone who has extra inventory can name their price if they find a buyer in need.</p><p><blockquote>原因是这些芯片虽然不一定是智能手机或服务器最重要的部分，但仍然是必不可少的，不容易更换。这种芯片也比CPU更容易储存，CPU很快就会过时，所以任何有额外库存的人都可以在找到有需要的买家时说出价格。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Prices have risen in just about every step of the chip supply chain, from basic materials to chip packing and testing services -- the last step before chips are mounted on printed circuit boards.</p><p><blockquote>从基础材料到芯片封装和测试服务——芯片安装到印刷电路板前的最后一步——芯片供应链的几乎每一步的价格都在上涨。</blockquote></p><p> For top chip developers that outsource production -- namely Qualcomm, Nvidia, MediaTek and Advanced Micro Devices -- this translated to an increase in \"cost of sales\" in 2020, according to a Nikkei analysis. Defined as the total cost of production, materials and delivery of goods, cost of sales continued to surge in the first half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>根据日经新闻的分析，对于外包生产的顶级芯片开发商——即高通、英伟达、联发科和Advanced Micro Devices——来说，这意味着2020年“销售成本”的增加。销售成本定义为生产、材料和货物交付的总成本，在2021年上半年继续飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Mobile chip giant Qualcomm's accumulated cost of sales from last October until June this year jumped nearly 60% on the year, while that of MediaTek, its key Asia rival, increased more than 64% for the same period. Both Qualcomm and MediaTek's revenue surged even more during the period, however, indicating they have adjusted the selling prices of their chips, which are used by the world's major smartphone makers.</p><p><blockquote>移动芯片巨头高通从去年10月到今年6月的累计销售成本同比增长近60%，而其亚洲主要竞争对手联发科同期增长超过64%。然而，高通和联发科的收入在此期间飙升更多，这表明它们已经调整了全球主要智能手机制造商使用的芯片的售价。</blockquote></p><p> Industry players and analysts predict strong chip demand -- and thus higher prices -- to continue into next year.</p><p><blockquote>业内人士和分析师预测，强劲的芯片需求——从而导致价格上涨——将持续到明年。</blockquote></p><p> Doris Hsu, chair and CEO of Globalwafers, the world's third-largest wafer material maker, said the price of wafers -- the essential substrate that all chips are fabricated on -- is set to go up.</p><p><blockquote>全球第三大晶圆材料制造商Globalwafers董事长兼首席执行官Doris Hsu表示，晶圆（制造所有芯片的基本基板）的价格将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> \"Materials and chemicals used in production and transportation logistics costs are all on the rise,\" Hsu said. \"That means we have to adjust the selling price of our wafers, otherwise our profit margin could be affected.\"</p><p><blockquote>“生产中使用的材料和化学品以及运输物流成本都在上升，”Hsu说。“这意味着我们必须调整晶圆的售价，否则我们的利润率可能会受到影响。”</blockquote></p><p> Peter Hanbury, a partner specializing in chip and tech supply chain at Bain &amp; Co., told Nikkei chip prices will likely rise into next year due to the time it takes to expand production capacity.</p><p><blockquote>贝恩公司专门研究芯片和技术供应链的合伙人彼得·汉伯里告诉《日经新闻》，由于扩大产能需要时间，芯片价格可能会在明年上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Chip developers such as Qualcomm, NXP and Nvidia, he added, will likely negotiate to pass these price increases onto their own customers -- namely device makers and electronics builders such as Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, HP, Dell and Ford.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，高通、恩智浦和英伟达等芯片开发商可能会通过谈判将这些价格上涨转嫁给自己的客户，即苹果、三星、小米、惠普、戴尔和福特等设备制造商和电子产品制造商。</blockquote></p><p> \"[For] products like smartphones and PCs, the price increases will be more noticeable, while for other devices with limited semiconductor content you may not even notice,\" Hanbury said, referring to the retail prices.</p><p><blockquote>“对于智能手机和个人电脑等产品，价格上涨将更加明显，而对于其他半导体含量有限的设备，你甚至可能不会注意到，”汉伯里在谈到零售价格时表示。</blockquote></p><p> Gai, of Counterpoint Research, said the rising cost of chips may even impact smartphone makers' business strategies.</p><p><blockquote>Counterpoint Research的Gai表示，芯片成本的上升甚至可能影响智能手机制造商的商业战略。</blockquote></p><p> \"The net profit margin for smartphone makers excluding Apple is only about 5% to 10%. In that case, the rising chip costs will definitely push all the industry players to roll out higher-end handset models for next year to offset the cost impacts rather than focus on midrange or lower-end phones,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“不包括苹果在内的智能手机制造商的净利润率只有5%至10%左右。在这种情况下，芯片成本的上升肯定会推动所有行业参与者在明年推出更高端的手机型号，以抵消成本影响，而不是专注于中端或低端手机，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the race to develop cutting-edge technologies is also expected to keep chip prices high for the long term, particularly the more advanced offerings.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，开发尖端技术的竞赛预计也将使芯片价格长期保持高位，尤其是更先进的产品。</blockquote></p><p> \"Advanced chip production, such as 7-nanometer, 5-nanometer and future 3-nanometer, is extremely expensive,\" Mark Li, a veteran semiconductor analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein, told Nikkei. \"Only TSMC, Samsung and Intel could afford the investment. I am not going to say those advanced chip prices will never fall, but it's not easy for them to go down much given the scale of the investment,\" Li said.</p><p><blockquote>Sanford C.Bernstein资深半导体分析师Mark Li告诉《日经新闻》：“先进的芯片生产，例如7纳米、5纳米和未来的3纳米，成本极其昂贵。”“只有台积电、三星和英特尔有能力承担这项投资。我不会说这些先进芯片的价格永远不会下降，但考虑到投资规模，它们不容易下降太多，”李说。</blockquote></p><p> For smaller players and for more mature production technology, Li said the market \"could be more volatile once there is an economic slowdown. The correction could be quite substantial and quick, too.\"</p><p><blockquote>李表示，对于规模较小的企业和生产技术更成熟的企业，“一旦经济放缓，市场可能会更加波动。调整也可能相当大且迅速。”</blockquote></p><p> Li said the most important factor in determining prices, however, is the same as always: demand.</p><p><blockquote>李说，然而，决定价格的最重要因素一如既往：需求。</blockquote></p><p> \"Chip plants operate like airlines. Airlines must shoulder fixed costs even if there are only one or two passengers on board. Chipmaking plants are the same. If the demand slows, they have to lower prices to lure more clients and maintain utilization rates.\"</p><p><blockquote>“芯片厂的运营就像航空公司，即使机上只有一两名乘客，航空公司也要承担固定成本。芯片制造厂也一样，如果需求放缓，就不得不降低价格来吸引更多客户，维持利用率。”</blockquote></p><p> TSMC told Nikkei that it will not comment on pricing adjustment but referred to CEO C.C. Wei's statement during an earnings briefing in July, when he said, \"TSMC's pricing strategy is strategic, not opportunistic. At the same time, we face manufacturing cost challenges due to increasing process complexity at leading node, new investment in mature nodes, expansion of our global manufacturing footprint and rising materials and basic commodities cost. Therefore, we are firming up our wafer pricing.\"</p><p><blockquote>台积电告诉日经新闻，不会对定价调整发表评论，但提到了首席执行官C.C.魏在7月份的财报简报会上表示，“台积电的定价策略是战略性的，而不是机会主义的。与此同时，由于领先节点的工艺复杂性增加、成熟节点的新投资、全球制造足迹的扩大以及材料和基本商品成本的上涨，我们面临制造成本挑战。因此，我们正在坚定我们的晶圆定价。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates\">Nikkei Asia</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","AMD":"美国超微公司","QCOM":"高通","UMC":"联电","TSM":"台积电","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113754693","content_text":"Semiconductor and electronics prices are set to rise absent major economic slowdowns\nTSMC's move to raise its fees for chip production services took many in the industry by surprise. © AFP/Jiji\nTAIPEI/HSINCHU, Taiwan -- The price of chips -- and the electronic devices they power -- are on track to rise into 2022 as the world's biggest contract chipmaker joins its rivals in ramping up production fees.\nPrices of semiconductors have been climbing since the last quarter of 2020 amid a global supply crunch. But news that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. was preparing its biggest price hike in a decade still came as a shock to some, bringing home just how entrenched chip price inflation has become.\nTSMC controls over half the global foundry market, making chips for the likes of Apple, Nvidia and Qualcomm. Known for its cutting-edge tech and high quality, the Taiwanese company normally commands production fees around 20% higher than its rivals, according to industry insiders.\nSince the end of last year, however, smaller foundries have repeatedly ramped up their own prices, so that United Microelectronics, the world's No. 3 player, now charges more than its bigger compatriot for some services, four industry executives told Nikkei Asia.\nThese higher prices stem from a range of factors, including higher material and logistics costs as well as the race by device makers to secure adequate chip supplies, that have emerged since the chip shortage first began to bite late last year.\nTSMC has been slower than most other chip companies in raising its prices, in part because it already enjoyed such a hefty premium. But with investment costs also rising -- the company has pledged $100 billion in spending over the next three years -- the chip giant felt compelled to pass on some of the burden, sources briefed on the matter said.\nMore urgently, industry sources say, the company is keen to weed out so-called double-booking, in which clients place orders for more chips than they actually need in hopes of securing production line space and support from contract chipmakers amid the global supply crunch. This, in turn, has made it difficult for TSMC to grasp the \"real demand\" picture, sources briefed on the matter told Nikkei.\nClient reactions to the planned price rise are mixed.\n\"We are glad that TSMC eventually adjusted prices so that it could fend off the practice of double-booking, when industry players race to secure enough chip production capacity during a shortage,\" K.S. Pua, chairman and CEO of Phison Electronics, told Nikkei. The leading NAND flash controller chip and solution provider is a client of both TSMC and UMC.\n\"We are still short of supplies and want more chip capacity to support our growth for the second half of 2021,\" Pua said.\nPhison raised its own chip prices around April this year to reflect the rising supply chain costs, and Pua said his company will have discussions with clients about further increases.\nOthers, however, have expressed concern over whether they will be able to pass on these higher costs to customers.\n\"We are all in a great shock and all of our account managers need to speak to our customers to see if we can renegotiate some of the contracts,\" a chip executive told Nikkei. \"We haven't seen TSMC introduce such a broad rate increase in over a decade.\"\nThe impact of TSMC's price will be felt more obviously from next year, analysts say, as the company is still working through existing orders. Customers will also negotiate their own specific terms with TSMC before Oct. 1, when the price hikes officially take effect, they said.\nOverall chip prices, however, have already surged.\nAccording to Dale Gai, research director of Counterpoint Research, chip developers are paying 40% higher production fees for legacy chips that are in the shortest supply.\n\nElectronics makers, meanwhile, face even steeper increases as they try to source enough chips to complete their devices. The price of some microcontroller chips, for example, has jumped from $0.20 each to more than $1, supply chain executives and distributors told Nikkei -- a 400% increase in less than a year.\nThe reason is that these chips, while not necessarily the most important part of a smartphone or server, are still essential and not easily replaced. Such chips can also be stockpiled more easily than, say, CPUs, which quickly become obsolete, so anyone who has extra inventory can name their price if they find a buyer in need.\nPrices have risen in just about every step of the chip supply chain, from basic materials to chip packing and testing services -- the last step before chips are mounted on printed circuit boards.\nFor top chip developers that outsource production -- namely Qualcomm, Nvidia, MediaTek and Advanced Micro Devices -- this translated to an increase in \"cost of sales\" in 2020, according to a Nikkei analysis. Defined as the total cost of production, materials and delivery of goods, cost of sales continued to surge in the first half of 2021.\nMobile chip giant Qualcomm's accumulated cost of sales from last October until June this year jumped nearly 60% on the year, while that of MediaTek, its key Asia rival, increased more than 64% for the same period. Both Qualcomm and MediaTek's revenue surged even more during the period, however, indicating they have adjusted the selling prices of their chips, which are used by the world's major smartphone makers.\nIndustry players and analysts predict strong chip demand -- and thus higher prices -- to continue into next year.\nDoris Hsu, chair and CEO of Globalwafers, the world's third-largest wafer material maker, said the price of wafers -- the essential substrate that all chips are fabricated on -- is set to go up.\n\"Materials and chemicals used in production and transportation logistics costs are all on the rise,\" Hsu said. \"That means we have to adjust the selling price of our wafers, otherwise our profit margin could be affected.\"\nPeter Hanbury, a partner specializing in chip and tech supply chain at Bain & Co., told Nikkei chip prices will likely rise into next year due to the time it takes to expand production capacity.\nChip developers such as Qualcomm, NXP and Nvidia, he added, will likely negotiate to pass these price increases onto their own customers -- namely device makers and electronics builders such as Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, HP, Dell and Ford.\n\"[For] products like smartphones and PCs, the price increases will be more noticeable, while for other devices with limited semiconductor content you may not even notice,\" Hanbury said, referring to the retail prices.\nGai, of Counterpoint Research, said the rising cost of chips may even impact smartphone makers' business strategies.\n\"The net profit margin for smartphone makers excluding Apple is only about 5% to 10%. In that case, the rising chip costs will definitely push all the industry players to roll out higher-end handset models for next year to offset the cost impacts rather than focus on midrange or lower-end phones,\" he said.\nMeanwhile, the race to develop cutting-edge technologies is also expected to keep chip prices high for the long term, particularly the more advanced offerings.\n\"Advanced chip production, such as 7-nanometer, 5-nanometer and future 3-nanometer, is extremely expensive,\" Mark Li, a veteran semiconductor analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein, told Nikkei. \"Only TSMC, Samsung and Intel could afford the investment. I am not going to say those advanced chip prices will never fall, but it's not easy for them to go down much given the scale of the investment,\" Li said.\nFor smaller players and for more mature production technology, Li said the market \"could be more volatile once there is an economic slowdown. The correction could be quite substantial and quick, too.\"\nLi said the most important factor in determining prices, however, is the same as always: demand.\n\"Chip plants operate like airlines. Airlines must shoulder fixed costs even if there are only one or two passengers on board. Chipmaking plants are the same. If the demand slows, they have to lower prices to lure more clients and maintain utilization rates.\"\nTSMC told Nikkei that it will not comment on pricing adjustment but referred to CEO C.C. Wei's statement during an earnings briefing in July, when he said, \"TSMC's pricing strategy is strategic, not opportunistic. At the same time, we face manufacturing cost challenges due to increasing process complexity at leading node, new investment in mature nodes, expansion of our global manufacturing footprint and rising materials and basic commodities cost. Therefore, we are firming up our wafer pricing.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"UMC":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815383811,"gmtCreate":1630644161633,"gmtModify":1631890506209,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815383811","repostId":"2164829818","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815383348,"gmtCreate":1630644153684,"gmtModify":1631890506219,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815383348","repostId":"2164829818","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812314003,"gmtCreate":1630552545402,"gmtModify":1631890506232,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812314003","repostId":"1105808841","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105808841","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630547089,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105808841?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 09:44","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong: Shares extend gains at open<blockquote>香港：股市开盘延续涨势</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105808841","media":"AFP","summary":"[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks began with another advance on Thursday morning as investors bide their ","content":"<p>[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks began with another advance on Thursday morning as investors bide their time ahead of the release of key US jobs data at the end of the week.</p><p><blockquote>【香港】香港股市周四早盘再次上涨，投资者在周末美国关键就业数据公布前等待时机。</blockquote></p><p> The Hang Seng Index rose 0.67 per cent or 175.23 points to 26,203.52.</p><p><blockquote>恒生指数上涨0.67%，即175.23点，至26,203.52点。</blockquote></p><p> The Shanghai Composite dipped 0.20 per cent or 7.20 points to 3,559.90, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange fell 0.22 per cent or 5.32 points to 2,412.57.</p><p><blockquote>上证综指下跌0.20%或7.20点，至3559.90点；中国第二交易所深圳综合指数下跌0.22%或5.32点，至2412.57点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1605843958005","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong: Shares extend gains at open<blockquote>香港：股市开盘延续涨势</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong: Shares extend gains at open<blockquote>香港：股市开盘延续涨势</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">AFP</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-02 09:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks began with another advance on Thursday morning as investors bide their time ahead of the release of key US jobs data at the end of the week.</p><p><blockquote>【香港】香港股市周四早盘再次上涨，投资者在周末美国关键就业数据公布前等待时机。</blockquote></p><p> The Hang Seng Index rose 0.67 per cent or 175.23 points to 26,203.52.</p><p><blockquote>恒生指数上涨0.67%，即175.23点，至26,203.52点。</blockquote></p><p> The Shanghai Composite dipped 0.20 per cent or 7.20 points to 3,559.90, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange fell 0.22 per cent or 5.32 points to 2,412.57.</p><p><blockquote>上证综指下跌0.20%或7.20点，至3559.90点；中国第二交易所深圳综合指数下跌0.22%或5.32点，至2412.57点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/hong-kong-shares-extend-gains-at-open-3\">AFP</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/hong-kong-shares-extend-gains-at-open-3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105808841","content_text":"[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks began with another advance on Thursday morning as investors bide their time ahead of the release of key US jobs data at the end of the week.\nThe Hang Seng Index rose 0.67 per cent or 175.23 points to 26,203.52.\nThe Shanghai Composite dipped 0.20 per cent or 7.20 points to 3,559.90, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange fell 0.22 per cent or 5.32 points to 2,412.57.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816116452,"gmtCreate":1630477272376,"gmtModify":1631890506248,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816116452","repostId":"1136153067","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818928681,"gmtCreate":1630371689943,"gmtModify":1704959234060,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818928681","repostId":"1181079166","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811380842,"gmtCreate":1630289382286,"gmtModify":1704957868923,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811380842","repostId":"1199324498","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819386514,"gmtCreate":1630034365038,"gmtModify":1704954948688,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819386514","repostId":"1190762172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819386838,"gmtCreate":1630034342124,"gmtModify":1704954948342,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819386838","repostId":"1177482103","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177482103","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630032656,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177482103?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-27 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Snowflake: Why Jim Cramer Thinks Every Fortune 500 Company Will Be a Customer<blockquote>Snowflake：为什么Jim Cramer认为每家财富500强公司都会成为客户</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177482103","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Cloud software company Snowflake (SNOW) reported a second-quarter loss of 64 cents a share onrevenue","content":"<p>Cloud software company Snowflake&nbsp;(<b>SNOW</b>)&nbsp;reported a second-quarter loss of 64 cents a share onrevenue of $272.2 million, up 104% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>云软件公司雪花(<b>雪</b>）公布第二季度每股亏损64美分，营收为2.722亿美元，同比增长104%。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake CEO Frank Slootman told Jim Cramer on \"Mad Money\" that Snowflake doesn't create demand for its products, it enables it. A lot more is possible with Snowflake when technology no longer holds companies back, Slootman said.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake首席执行官Frank Slootman在“Mad Money”节目中告诉Jim Cramer，Snowflake并没有创造对其产品的需求，而是实现了需求。Slootman说，当技术不再阻碍公司时，Snowflake就有可能实现更多。</blockquote></p><p> Cramer told Action Alerts PLUS senior analyst Jeff Marks that Snowflake's 'pay as you go' use model will make it so every customer in the Fortune 500 is a customer.</p><p><blockquote>Cramer告诉Action Alerts PLUS高级分析师Jeff Marks，Snowflake的“现收现付”使用模式将使财富500强中的每个客户都成为客户。</blockquote></p><p> \"[Snowflake] is the way of the future, right now,\" Cramer said.</p><p><blockquote>“[雪花]现在就是未来的发展方向，”克莱默说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snowflake: Why Jim Cramer Thinks Every Fortune 500 Company Will Be a Customer<blockquote>Snowflake：为什么Jim Cramer认为每家财富500强公司都会成为客户</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnowflake: Why Jim Cramer Thinks Every Fortune 500 Company Will Be a Customer<blockquote>Snowflake：为什么Jim Cramer认为每家财富500强公司都会成为客户</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-27 10:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Cloud software company Snowflake&nbsp;(<b>SNOW</b>)&nbsp;reported a second-quarter loss of 64 cents a share onrevenue of $272.2 million, up 104% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>云软件公司雪花(<b>雪</b>）公布第二季度每股亏损64美分，营收为2.722亿美元，同比增长104%。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake CEO Frank Slootman told Jim Cramer on \"Mad Money\" that Snowflake doesn't create demand for its products, it enables it. A lot more is possible with Snowflake when technology no longer holds companies back, Slootman said.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake首席执行官Frank Slootman在“Mad Money”节目中告诉Jim Cramer，Snowflake并没有创造对其产品的需求，而是实现了需求。Slootman说，当技术不再阻碍公司时，Snowflake就有可能实现更多。</blockquote></p><p> Cramer told Action Alerts PLUS senior analyst Jeff Marks that Snowflake's 'pay as you go' use model will make it so every customer in the Fortune 500 is a customer.</p><p><blockquote>Cramer告诉Action Alerts PLUS高级分析师Jeff Marks，Snowflake的“现收现付”使用模式将使财富500强中的每个客户都成为客户。</blockquote></p><p> \"[Snowflake] is the way of the future, right now,\" Cramer said.</p><p><blockquote>“[雪花]现在就是未来的发展方向，”克莱默说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer-snowflake-customers-every-fortune-500-company\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer-snowflake-customers-every-fortune-500-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177482103","content_text":"Cloud software company Snowflake (SNOW) reported a second-quarter loss of 64 cents a share onrevenue of $272.2 million, up 104% from a year earlier.\nSnowflake CEO Frank Slootman told Jim Cramer on \"Mad Money\" that Snowflake doesn't create demand for its products, it enables it. A lot more is possible with Snowflake when technology no longer holds companies back, Slootman said.\nCramer told Action Alerts PLUS senior analyst Jeff Marks that Snowflake's 'pay as you go' use model will make it so every customer in the Fortune 500 is a customer.\n\"[Snowflake] is the way of the future, right now,\" Cramer said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810991749,"gmtCreate":1629937904481,"gmtModify":1633681349064,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810991749","repostId":"2162063590","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837831358,"gmtCreate":1629871749174,"gmtModify":1633681791073,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837831358","repostId":"2162087564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834185865,"gmtCreate":1629780338357,"gmtModify":1633682475034,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834185865","repostId":"2161777891","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":873248493,"gmtCreate":1636952669999,"gmtModify":1636952670221,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873248493","repostId":"2183536049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":811380842,"gmtCreate":1630289382286,"gmtModify":1704957868923,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811380842","repostId":"1199324498","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149866912,"gmtCreate":1625715251236,"gmtModify":1633938056988,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149866912","repostId":"1176865752","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817515415,"gmtCreate":1630974701137,"gmtModify":1631890506196,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817515415","repostId":"1113754693","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113754693","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630974255,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113754693?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 08:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chip prices set to rise into 2022 as TSMC hikes rates<blockquote>随着台积电加息，芯片价格将在2022年上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113754693","media":"Nikkei Asia","summary":"Semiconductor and electronics prices are set to rise absent major economic slowdowns\nTSMC's move to ","content":"<p>Semiconductor and electronics prices are set to rise absent major economic slowdowns</p><p><blockquote>如果经济没有重大放缓，半导体和电子产品价格将会上涨</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f6e7393360b1a36607fb16bb8d77f0a\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"788\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>TSMC's move to raise its fees for chip production services took many in the industry by surprise. © AFP/Jiji</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>台积电提高芯片生产服务费用的举动让许多业内人士感到意外。©法新社/时事社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> TAIPEI/HSINCHU, Taiwan -- The price of chips -- and the electronic devices they power -- are on track to rise into 2022 as the world's biggest contract chipmaker joins its rivals in ramping up production fees.</p><p><blockquote>台湾台北/新竹——随着全球最大的合同芯片制造商与其竞争对手一起提高生产费用，芯片及其驱动的电子设备的价格有望在2022年上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Prices of semiconductors have been climbing since the last quarter of 2020 amid a global supply crunch. But news that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. was preparing its&nbsp;biggest price hike in a decade&nbsp;still came as a shock to some, bringing home just how entrenched chip price inflation has become.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年最后一个季度以来，由于全球供应紧缩，半导体价格一直在攀升。但台积电公司准备进行十年来最大幅度提价的消息仍然让一些人感到震惊，让他们明白了芯片价格通胀已经变得多么根深蒂固。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC controls over half the global foundry market, making chips for the likes of Apple, Nvidia and Qualcomm. Known for its cutting-edge tech and high quality, the Taiwanese company normally commands production fees around 20% higher than its rivals, according to industry insiders.</p><p><blockquote>台积电控制着全球一半以上的代工市场，为苹果、英伟达和高通等公司生产芯片。据业内人士称，这家台湾公司以其尖端技术和高质量而闻名，其制作费通常比竞争对手高出20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Since the end of last year, however, smaller foundries have repeatedly ramped up their own prices, so that United Microelectronics, the world's No. 3 player, now charges more than its bigger compatriot for some services, four industry executives told Nikkei Asia.</p><p><blockquote>然而，四位行业高管告诉《日经亚洲》，自去年年底以来，规模较小的代工厂一再提高价格，因此全球第三大制造商联华电子现在在某些服务上的收费高于其规模较大的同胞。</blockquote></p><p> These higher prices stem from a range of factors, including higher material and logistics costs as well as the race by device makers to secure adequate chip supplies, that have emerged since the chip shortage first began to bite late last year.</p><p><blockquote>这些较高的价格源于一系列因素，包括更高的材料和物流成本，以及设备制造商为确保充足的芯片供应而进行的竞赛，这些因素自去年年底芯片短缺首次开始蔓延以来就出现了。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC has been slower than most other chip companies in raising its prices, in part because it already enjoyed such a hefty premium. But with investment costs also rising -- the company has pledged $100 billion in spending over the next three years -- the chip giant felt compelled to&nbsp;pass on some of the burden, sources briefed on the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>台积电提价的速度慢于大多数其他芯片公司，部分原因是它已经享受了如此高的溢价。但知情人士称，随着投资成本也在上升——该公司已承诺在未来三年内支出1000亿美元——这家芯片巨头感到有必要转嫁部分负担。</blockquote></p><p> More urgently, industry sources say, the company is keen to weed out so-called double-booking, in which clients place orders for more chips than they actually need in hopes of securing production line space and support from contract chipmakers amid the global supply crunch. This, in turn, has made it difficult for TSMC to grasp the \"real demand\" picture, sources briefed on the matter told Nikkei.</p><p><blockquote>业内消息人士称，更紧迫的是，该公司热衷于消除所谓的重复预订，即客户订购的芯片数量超过了实际需求，希望在全球供应紧缩的情况下获得生产线空间和合同芯片制造商的支持。知情人士告诉《日经新闻》，这反过来又使台积电难以掌握“真实需求”情况。</blockquote></p><p> Client reactions to the planned price rise are mixed.</p><p><blockquote>客户对计划涨价的反应不一。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are glad that TSMC eventually adjusted prices so that it could fend off the practice of double-booking, when industry players race to secure enough chip production capacity during a shortage,\" K.S. Pua, chairman and CEO of Phison Electronics, told Nikkei. The leading NAND flash controller chip and solution provider is a client of both TSMC and UMC.</p><p><blockquote>“我们很高兴台积电最终调整了价格，以便在行业参与者在短缺期间竞相确保足够的芯片产能时避免重复预订的做法，”K.S.群联电子董事长兼首席执行官普阿告诉《日经新闻》。领先的NAND闪存控制器芯片和解决方案提供商是台积电和联电的客户。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are still short of supplies and want more chip capacity to support our growth for the second half of 2021,\" Pua said.</p><p><blockquote>Pua表示：“我们仍然供应短缺，需要更多芯片产能来支持我们2021年下半年的增长。”</blockquote></p><p> Phison raised its own chip prices around April this year to reflect the rising supply chain costs, and Pua said his company will have discussions with clients about further increases.</p><p><blockquote>群联在今年4月左右提高了自己的芯片价格，以反映供应链成本的上升，Pua表示，他的公司将与客户讨论进一步上涨的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Others, however, have expressed concern over whether they will be able to pass on these higher costs to customers.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其他人则担心他们是否能够将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are all in a great shock and all of our account managers need to speak to our customers to see if we can renegotiate some of the contracts,\" a chip executive told Nikkei. \"We haven't seen TSMC introduce such a broad rate increase in over a decade.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们都感到非常震惊，我们所有的客户经理都需要与客户交谈，看看我们是否可以重新谈判一些合同，”一位芯片高管告诉日经新闻。“我们已经十多年没有看到台积电推出如此广泛的加息了。”</blockquote></p><p> The impact of TSMC's price will be felt more obviously from next year, analysts say, as the company is still working through existing orders. Customers will also negotiate their own specific terms with TSMC before Oct. 1, when the price hikes officially take effect, they said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，从明年开始，台积电价格的影响将更加明显，因为该公司仍在处理现有订单。他们表示，客户还将在10月1日提价正式生效之前与台积电协商自己的具体条款。</blockquote></p><p> Overall chip prices, however, have already surged.</p><p><blockquote>然而，整体芯片价格已经飙升。</blockquote></p><p> According to Dale Gai, research director of Counterpoint Research, chip developers are paying 40% higher production fees for legacy chips that are in the shortest supply.</p><p><blockquote>根据Counterpoint Research的研究主管Dale Gai的说法，芯片开发商正在为供应最短缺的传统芯片支付40%的生产费用。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/201b6c1300dd3cb3b2a783df4cf2a849\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"788\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Electronics makers, meanwhile, face even steeper increases as they try to source enough chips to complete their devices. The price of some microcontroller chips, for example, has jumped from $0.20 each to more than $1, supply chain executives and distributors told Nikkei -- a 400% increase in less than a year.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，电子产品制造商面临着更大的增长，因为他们试图采购足够的芯片来完成他们的设备。例如，供应链高管和分销商告诉《日经新闻》，一些微控制器芯片的价格已从每个0.20美元跃升至1美元以上，在不到一年的时间里上涨了400%。</blockquote></p><p> The reason is that these chips, while not necessarily the most important part of a smartphone or server, are still essential and not easily replaced. Such chips can also be stockpiled more easily than, say, CPUs, which quickly become obsolete, so anyone who has extra inventory can name their price if they find a buyer in need.</p><p><blockquote>原因是这些芯片虽然不一定是智能手机或服务器最重要的部分，但仍然是必不可少的，不容易更换。这种芯片也比CPU更容易储存，CPU很快就会过时，所以任何有额外库存的人都可以在找到有需要的买家时说出价格。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Prices have risen in just about every step of the chip supply chain, from basic materials to chip packing and testing services -- the last step before chips are mounted on printed circuit boards.</p><p><blockquote>从基础材料到芯片封装和测试服务——芯片安装到印刷电路板前的最后一步——芯片供应链的几乎每一步的价格都在上涨。</blockquote></p><p> For top chip developers that outsource production -- namely Qualcomm, Nvidia, MediaTek and Advanced Micro Devices -- this translated to an increase in \"cost of sales\" in 2020, according to a Nikkei analysis. Defined as the total cost of production, materials and delivery of goods, cost of sales continued to surge in the first half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>根据日经新闻的分析，对于外包生产的顶级芯片开发商——即高通、英伟达、联发科和Advanced Micro Devices——来说，这意味着2020年“销售成本”的增加。销售成本定义为生产、材料和货物交付的总成本，在2021年上半年继续飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Mobile chip giant Qualcomm's accumulated cost of sales from last October until June this year jumped nearly 60% on the year, while that of MediaTek, its key Asia rival, increased more than 64% for the same period. Both Qualcomm and MediaTek's revenue surged even more during the period, however, indicating they have adjusted the selling prices of their chips, which are used by the world's major smartphone makers.</p><p><blockquote>移动芯片巨头高通从去年10月到今年6月的累计销售成本同比增长近60%，而其亚洲主要竞争对手联发科同期增长超过64%。然而，高通和联发科的收入在此期间飙升更多，这表明它们已经调整了全球主要智能手机制造商使用的芯片的售价。</blockquote></p><p> Industry players and analysts predict strong chip demand -- and thus higher prices -- to continue into next year.</p><p><blockquote>业内人士和分析师预测，强劲的芯片需求——从而导致价格上涨——将持续到明年。</blockquote></p><p> Doris Hsu, chair and CEO of Globalwafers, the world's third-largest wafer material maker, said the price of wafers -- the essential substrate that all chips are fabricated on -- is set to go up.</p><p><blockquote>全球第三大晶圆材料制造商Globalwafers董事长兼首席执行官Doris Hsu表示，晶圆（制造所有芯片的基本基板）的价格将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> \"Materials and chemicals used in production and transportation logistics costs are all on the rise,\" Hsu said. \"That means we have to adjust the selling price of our wafers, otherwise our profit margin could be affected.\"</p><p><blockquote>“生产中使用的材料和化学品以及运输物流成本都在上升，”Hsu说。“这意味着我们必须调整晶圆的售价，否则我们的利润率可能会受到影响。”</blockquote></p><p> Peter Hanbury, a partner specializing in chip and tech supply chain at Bain &amp; Co., told Nikkei chip prices will likely rise into next year due to the time it takes to expand production capacity.</p><p><blockquote>贝恩公司专门研究芯片和技术供应链的合伙人彼得·汉伯里告诉《日经新闻》，由于扩大产能需要时间，芯片价格可能会在明年上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Chip developers such as Qualcomm, NXP and Nvidia, he added, will likely negotiate to pass these price increases onto their own customers -- namely device makers and electronics builders such as Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, HP, Dell and Ford.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，高通、恩智浦和英伟达等芯片开发商可能会通过谈判将这些价格上涨转嫁给自己的客户，即苹果、三星、小米、惠普、戴尔和福特等设备制造商和电子产品制造商。</blockquote></p><p> \"[For] products like smartphones and PCs, the price increases will be more noticeable, while for other devices with limited semiconductor content you may not even notice,\" Hanbury said, referring to the retail prices.</p><p><blockquote>“对于智能手机和个人电脑等产品，价格上涨将更加明显，而对于其他半导体含量有限的设备，你甚至可能不会注意到，”汉伯里在谈到零售价格时表示。</blockquote></p><p> Gai, of Counterpoint Research, said the rising cost of chips may even impact smartphone makers' business strategies.</p><p><blockquote>Counterpoint Research的Gai表示，芯片成本的上升甚至可能影响智能手机制造商的商业战略。</blockquote></p><p> \"The net profit margin for smartphone makers excluding Apple is only about 5% to 10%. In that case, the rising chip costs will definitely push all the industry players to roll out higher-end handset models for next year to offset the cost impacts rather than focus on midrange or lower-end phones,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“不包括苹果在内的智能手机制造商的净利润率只有5%至10%左右。在这种情况下，芯片成本的上升肯定会推动所有行业参与者在明年推出更高端的手机型号，以抵消成本影响，而不是专注于中端或低端手机，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the race to develop cutting-edge technologies is also expected to keep chip prices high for the long term, particularly the more advanced offerings.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，开发尖端技术的竞赛预计也将使芯片价格长期保持高位，尤其是更先进的产品。</blockquote></p><p> \"Advanced chip production, such as 7-nanometer, 5-nanometer and future 3-nanometer, is extremely expensive,\" Mark Li, a veteran semiconductor analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein, told Nikkei. \"Only TSMC, Samsung and Intel could afford the investment. I am not going to say those advanced chip prices will never fall, but it's not easy for them to go down much given the scale of the investment,\" Li said.</p><p><blockquote>Sanford C.Bernstein资深半导体分析师Mark Li告诉《日经新闻》：“先进的芯片生产，例如7纳米、5纳米和未来的3纳米，成本极其昂贵。”“只有台积电、三星和英特尔有能力承担这项投资。我不会说这些先进芯片的价格永远不会下降，但考虑到投资规模，它们不容易下降太多，”李说。</blockquote></p><p> For smaller players and for more mature production technology, Li said the market \"could be more volatile once there is an economic slowdown. The correction could be quite substantial and quick, too.\"</p><p><blockquote>李表示，对于规模较小的企业和生产技术更成熟的企业，“一旦经济放缓，市场可能会更加波动。调整也可能相当大且迅速。”</blockquote></p><p> Li said the most important factor in determining prices, however, is the same as always: demand.</p><p><blockquote>李说，然而，决定价格的最重要因素一如既往：需求。</blockquote></p><p> \"Chip plants operate like airlines. Airlines must shoulder fixed costs even if there are only one or two passengers on board. Chipmaking plants are the same. If the demand slows, they have to lower prices to lure more clients and maintain utilization rates.\"</p><p><blockquote>“芯片厂的运营就像航空公司，即使机上只有一两名乘客，航空公司也要承担固定成本。芯片制造厂也一样，如果需求放缓，就不得不降低价格来吸引更多客户，维持利用率。”</blockquote></p><p> TSMC told Nikkei that it will not comment on pricing adjustment but referred to CEO C.C. Wei's statement during an earnings briefing in July, when he said, \"TSMC's pricing strategy is strategic, not opportunistic. At the same time, we face manufacturing cost challenges due to increasing process complexity at leading node, new investment in mature nodes, expansion of our global manufacturing footprint and rising materials and basic commodities cost. Therefore, we are firming up our wafer pricing.\"</p><p><blockquote>台积电告诉日经新闻，不会对定价调整发表评论，但提到了首席执行官C.C.魏在7月份的财报简报会上表示，“台积电的定价策略是战略性的，而不是机会主义的。与此同时，由于领先节点的工艺复杂性增加、成熟节点的新投资、全球制造足迹的扩大以及材料和基本商品成本的上涨，我们面临制造成本挑战。因此，我们正在坚定我们的晶圆定价。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chip prices set to rise into 2022 as TSMC hikes rates<blockquote>随着台积电加息，芯片价格将在2022年上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChip prices set to rise into 2022 as TSMC hikes rates<blockquote>随着台积电加息，芯片价格将在2022年上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Nikkei Asia</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 08:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Semiconductor and electronics prices are set to rise absent major economic slowdowns</p><p><blockquote>如果经济没有重大放缓，半导体和电子产品价格将会上涨</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f6e7393360b1a36607fb16bb8d77f0a\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"788\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>TSMC's move to raise its fees for chip production services took many in the industry by surprise. © AFP/Jiji</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>台积电提高芯片生产服务费用的举动让许多业内人士感到意外。©法新社/时事社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> TAIPEI/HSINCHU, Taiwan -- The price of chips -- and the electronic devices they power -- are on track to rise into 2022 as the world's biggest contract chipmaker joins its rivals in ramping up production fees.</p><p><blockquote>台湾台北/新竹——随着全球最大的合同芯片制造商与其竞争对手一起提高生产费用，芯片及其驱动的电子设备的价格有望在2022年上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Prices of semiconductors have been climbing since the last quarter of 2020 amid a global supply crunch. But news that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. was preparing its&nbsp;biggest price hike in a decade&nbsp;still came as a shock to some, bringing home just how entrenched chip price inflation has become.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年最后一个季度以来，由于全球供应紧缩，半导体价格一直在攀升。但台积电公司准备进行十年来最大幅度提价的消息仍然让一些人感到震惊，让他们明白了芯片价格通胀已经变得多么根深蒂固。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC controls over half the global foundry market, making chips for the likes of Apple, Nvidia and Qualcomm. Known for its cutting-edge tech and high quality, the Taiwanese company normally commands production fees around 20% higher than its rivals, according to industry insiders.</p><p><blockquote>台积电控制着全球一半以上的代工市场，为苹果、英伟达和高通等公司生产芯片。据业内人士称，这家台湾公司以其尖端技术和高质量而闻名，其制作费通常比竞争对手高出20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Since the end of last year, however, smaller foundries have repeatedly ramped up their own prices, so that United Microelectronics, the world's No. 3 player, now charges more than its bigger compatriot for some services, four industry executives told Nikkei Asia.</p><p><blockquote>然而，四位行业高管告诉《日经亚洲》，自去年年底以来，规模较小的代工厂一再提高价格，因此全球第三大制造商联华电子现在在某些服务上的收费高于其规模较大的同胞。</blockquote></p><p> These higher prices stem from a range of factors, including higher material and logistics costs as well as the race by device makers to secure adequate chip supplies, that have emerged since the chip shortage first began to bite late last year.</p><p><blockquote>这些较高的价格源于一系列因素，包括更高的材料和物流成本，以及设备制造商为确保充足的芯片供应而进行的竞赛，这些因素自去年年底芯片短缺首次开始蔓延以来就出现了。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC has been slower than most other chip companies in raising its prices, in part because it already enjoyed such a hefty premium. But with investment costs also rising -- the company has pledged $100 billion in spending over the next three years -- the chip giant felt compelled to&nbsp;pass on some of the burden, sources briefed on the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>台积电提价的速度慢于大多数其他芯片公司，部分原因是它已经享受了如此高的溢价。但知情人士称，随着投资成本也在上升——该公司已承诺在未来三年内支出1000亿美元——这家芯片巨头感到有必要转嫁部分负担。</blockquote></p><p> More urgently, industry sources say, the company is keen to weed out so-called double-booking, in which clients place orders for more chips than they actually need in hopes of securing production line space and support from contract chipmakers amid the global supply crunch. This, in turn, has made it difficult for TSMC to grasp the \"real demand\" picture, sources briefed on the matter told Nikkei.</p><p><blockquote>业内消息人士称，更紧迫的是，该公司热衷于消除所谓的重复预订，即客户订购的芯片数量超过了实际需求，希望在全球供应紧缩的情况下获得生产线空间和合同芯片制造商的支持。知情人士告诉《日经新闻》，这反过来又使台积电难以掌握“真实需求”情况。</blockquote></p><p> Client reactions to the planned price rise are mixed.</p><p><blockquote>客户对计划涨价的反应不一。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are glad that TSMC eventually adjusted prices so that it could fend off the practice of double-booking, when industry players race to secure enough chip production capacity during a shortage,\" K.S. Pua, chairman and CEO of Phison Electronics, told Nikkei. The leading NAND flash controller chip and solution provider is a client of both TSMC and UMC.</p><p><blockquote>“我们很高兴台积电最终调整了价格，以便在行业参与者在短缺期间竞相确保足够的芯片产能时避免重复预订的做法，”K.S.群联电子董事长兼首席执行官普阿告诉《日经新闻》。领先的NAND闪存控制器芯片和解决方案提供商是台积电和联电的客户。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are still short of supplies and want more chip capacity to support our growth for the second half of 2021,\" Pua said.</p><p><blockquote>Pua表示：“我们仍然供应短缺，需要更多芯片产能来支持我们2021年下半年的增长。”</blockquote></p><p> Phison raised its own chip prices around April this year to reflect the rising supply chain costs, and Pua said his company will have discussions with clients about further increases.</p><p><blockquote>群联在今年4月左右提高了自己的芯片价格，以反映供应链成本的上升，Pua表示，他的公司将与客户讨论进一步上涨的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Others, however, have expressed concern over whether they will be able to pass on these higher costs to customers.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其他人则担心他们是否能够将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are all in a great shock and all of our account managers need to speak to our customers to see if we can renegotiate some of the contracts,\" a chip executive told Nikkei. \"We haven't seen TSMC introduce such a broad rate increase in over a decade.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们都感到非常震惊，我们所有的客户经理都需要与客户交谈，看看我们是否可以重新谈判一些合同，”一位芯片高管告诉日经新闻。“我们已经十多年没有看到台积电推出如此广泛的加息了。”</blockquote></p><p> The impact of TSMC's price will be felt more obviously from next year, analysts say, as the company is still working through existing orders. Customers will also negotiate their own specific terms with TSMC before Oct. 1, when the price hikes officially take effect, they said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，从明年开始，台积电价格的影响将更加明显，因为该公司仍在处理现有订单。他们表示，客户还将在10月1日提价正式生效之前与台积电协商自己的具体条款。</blockquote></p><p> Overall chip prices, however, have already surged.</p><p><blockquote>然而，整体芯片价格已经飙升。</blockquote></p><p> According to Dale Gai, research director of Counterpoint Research, chip developers are paying 40% higher production fees for legacy chips that are in the shortest supply.</p><p><blockquote>根据Counterpoint Research的研究主管Dale Gai的说法，芯片开发商正在为供应最短缺的传统芯片支付40%的生产费用。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/201b6c1300dd3cb3b2a783df4cf2a849\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"788\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Electronics makers, meanwhile, face even steeper increases as they try to source enough chips to complete their devices. The price of some microcontroller chips, for example, has jumped from $0.20 each to more than $1, supply chain executives and distributors told Nikkei -- a 400% increase in less than a year.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，电子产品制造商面临着更大的增长，因为他们试图采购足够的芯片来完成他们的设备。例如，供应链高管和分销商告诉《日经新闻》，一些微控制器芯片的价格已从每个0.20美元跃升至1美元以上，在不到一年的时间里上涨了400%。</blockquote></p><p> The reason is that these chips, while not necessarily the most important part of a smartphone or server, are still essential and not easily replaced. Such chips can also be stockpiled more easily than, say, CPUs, which quickly become obsolete, so anyone who has extra inventory can name their price if they find a buyer in need.</p><p><blockquote>原因是这些芯片虽然不一定是智能手机或服务器最重要的部分，但仍然是必不可少的，不容易更换。这种芯片也比CPU更容易储存，CPU很快就会过时，所以任何有额外库存的人都可以在找到有需要的买家时说出价格。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Prices have risen in just about every step of the chip supply chain, from basic materials to chip packing and testing services -- the last step before chips are mounted on printed circuit boards.</p><p><blockquote>从基础材料到芯片封装和测试服务——芯片安装到印刷电路板前的最后一步——芯片供应链的几乎每一步的价格都在上涨。</blockquote></p><p> For top chip developers that outsource production -- namely Qualcomm, Nvidia, MediaTek and Advanced Micro Devices -- this translated to an increase in \"cost of sales\" in 2020, according to a Nikkei analysis. Defined as the total cost of production, materials and delivery of goods, cost of sales continued to surge in the first half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>根据日经新闻的分析，对于外包生产的顶级芯片开发商——即高通、英伟达、联发科和Advanced Micro Devices——来说，这意味着2020年“销售成本”的增加。销售成本定义为生产、材料和货物交付的总成本，在2021年上半年继续飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Mobile chip giant Qualcomm's accumulated cost of sales from last October until June this year jumped nearly 60% on the year, while that of MediaTek, its key Asia rival, increased more than 64% for the same period. Both Qualcomm and MediaTek's revenue surged even more during the period, however, indicating they have adjusted the selling prices of their chips, which are used by the world's major smartphone makers.</p><p><blockquote>移动芯片巨头高通从去年10月到今年6月的累计销售成本同比增长近60%，而其亚洲主要竞争对手联发科同期增长超过64%。然而，高通和联发科的收入在此期间飙升更多，这表明它们已经调整了全球主要智能手机制造商使用的芯片的售价。</blockquote></p><p> Industry players and analysts predict strong chip demand -- and thus higher prices -- to continue into next year.</p><p><blockquote>业内人士和分析师预测，强劲的芯片需求——从而导致价格上涨——将持续到明年。</blockquote></p><p> Doris Hsu, chair and CEO of Globalwafers, the world's third-largest wafer material maker, said the price of wafers -- the essential substrate that all chips are fabricated on -- is set to go up.</p><p><blockquote>全球第三大晶圆材料制造商Globalwafers董事长兼首席执行官Doris Hsu表示，晶圆（制造所有芯片的基本基板）的价格将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> \"Materials and chemicals used in production and transportation logistics costs are all on the rise,\" Hsu said. \"That means we have to adjust the selling price of our wafers, otherwise our profit margin could be affected.\"</p><p><blockquote>“生产中使用的材料和化学品以及运输物流成本都在上升，”Hsu说。“这意味着我们必须调整晶圆的售价，否则我们的利润率可能会受到影响。”</blockquote></p><p> Peter Hanbury, a partner specializing in chip and tech supply chain at Bain &amp; Co., told Nikkei chip prices will likely rise into next year due to the time it takes to expand production capacity.</p><p><blockquote>贝恩公司专门研究芯片和技术供应链的合伙人彼得·汉伯里告诉《日经新闻》，由于扩大产能需要时间，芯片价格可能会在明年上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Chip developers such as Qualcomm, NXP and Nvidia, he added, will likely negotiate to pass these price increases onto their own customers -- namely device makers and electronics builders such as Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, HP, Dell and Ford.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，高通、恩智浦和英伟达等芯片开发商可能会通过谈判将这些价格上涨转嫁给自己的客户，即苹果、三星、小米、惠普、戴尔和福特等设备制造商和电子产品制造商。</blockquote></p><p> \"[For] products like smartphones and PCs, the price increases will be more noticeable, while for other devices with limited semiconductor content you may not even notice,\" Hanbury said, referring to the retail prices.</p><p><blockquote>“对于智能手机和个人电脑等产品，价格上涨将更加明显，而对于其他半导体含量有限的设备，你甚至可能不会注意到，”汉伯里在谈到零售价格时表示。</blockquote></p><p> Gai, of Counterpoint Research, said the rising cost of chips may even impact smartphone makers' business strategies.</p><p><blockquote>Counterpoint Research的Gai表示，芯片成本的上升甚至可能影响智能手机制造商的商业战略。</blockquote></p><p> \"The net profit margin for smartphone makers excluding Apple is only about 5% to 10%. In that case, the rising chip costs will definitely push all the industry players to roll out higher-end handset models for next year to offset the cost impacts rather than focus on midrange or lower-end phones,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“不包括苹果在内的智能手机制造商的净利润率只有5%至10%左右。在这种情况下，芯片成本的上升肯定会推动所有行业参与者在明年推出更高端的手机型号，以抵消成本影响，而不是专注于中端或低端手机，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the race to develop cutting-edge technologies is also expected to keep chip prices high for the long term, particularly the more advanced offerings.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，开发尖端技术的竞赛预计也将使芯片价格长期保持高位，尤其是更先进的产品。</blockquote></p><p> \"Advanced chip production, such as 7-nanometer, 5-nanometer and future 3-nanometer, is extremely expensive,\" Mark Li, a veteran semiconductor analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein, told Nikkei. \"Only TSMC, Samsung and Intel could afford the investment. I am not going to say those advanced chip prices will never fall, but it's not easy for them to go down much given the scale of the investment,\" Li said.</p><p><blockquote>Sanford C.Bernstein资深半导体分析师Mark Li告诉《日经新闻》：“先进的芯片生产，例如7纳米、5纳米和未来的3纳米，成本极其昂贵。”“只有台积电、三星和英特尔有能力承担这项投资。我不会说这些先进芯片的价格永远不会下降，但考虑到投资规模，它们不容易下降太多，”李说。</blockquote></p><p> For smaller players and for more mature production technology, Li said the market \"could be more volatile once there is an economic slowdown. The correction could be quite substantial and quick, too.\"</p><p><blockquote>李表示，对于规模较小的企业和生产技术更成熟的企业，“一旦经济放缓，市场可能会更加波动。调整也可能相当大且迅速。”</blockquote></p><p> Li said the most important factor in determining prices, however, is the same as always: demand.</p><p><blockquote>李说，然而，决定价格的最重要因素一如既往：需求。</blockquote></p><p> \"Chip plants operate like airlines. Airlines must shoulder fixed costs even if there are only one or two passengers on board. Chipmaking plants are the same. If the demand slows, they have to lower prices to lure more clients and maintain utilization rates.\"</p><p><blockquote>“芯片厂的运营就像航空公司，即使机上只有一两名乘客，航空公司也要承担固定成本。芯片制造厂也一样，如果需求放缓，就不得不降低价格来吸引更多客户，维持利用率。”</blockquote></p><p> TSMC told Nikkei that it will not comment on pricing adjustment but referred to CEO C.C. Wei's statement during an earnings briefing in July, when he said, \"TSMC's pricing strategy is strategic, not opportunistic. At the same time, we face manufacturing cost challenges due to increasing process complexity at leading node, new investment in mature nodes, expansion of our global manufacturing footprint and rising materials and basic commodities cost. Therefore, we are firming up our wafer pricing.\"</p><p><blockquote>台积电告诉日经新闻，不会对定价调整发表评论，但提到了首席执行官C.C.魏在7月份的财报简报会上表示，“台积电的定价策略是战略性的，而不是机会主义的。与此同时，由于领先节点的工艺复杂性增加、成熟节点的新投资、全球制造足迹的扩大以及材料和基本商品成本的上涨，我们面临制造成本挑战。因此，我们正在坚定我们的晶圆定价。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates\">Nikkei Asia</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","AMD":"美国超微公司","QCOM":"高通","UMC":"联电","TSM":"台积电","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113754693","content_text":"Semiconductor and electronics prices are set to rise absent major economic slowdowns\nTSMC's move to raise its fees for chip production services took many in the industry by surprise. © AFP/Jiji\nTAIPEI/HSINCHU, Taiwan -- The price of chips -- and the electronic devices they power -- are on track to rise into 2022 as the world's biggest contract chipmaker joins its rivals in ramping up production fees.\nPrices of semiconductors have been climbing since the last quarter of 2020 amid a global supply crunch. But news that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. was preparing its biggest price hike in a decade still came as a shock to some, bringing home just how entrenched chip price inflation has become.\nTSMC controls over half the global foundry market, making chips for the likes of Apple, Nvidia and Qualcomm. Known for its cutting-edge tech and high quality, the Taiwanese company normally commands production fees around 20% higher than its rivals, according to industry insiders.\nSince the end of last year, however, smaller foundries have repeatedly ramped up their own prices, so that United Microelectronics, the world's No. 3 player, now charges more than its bigger compatriot for some services, four industry executives told Nikkei Asia.\nThese higher prices stem from a range of factors, including higher material and logistics costs as well as the race by device makers to secure adequate chip supplies, that have emerged since the chip shortage first began to bite late last year.\nTSMC has been slower than most other chip companies in raising its prices, in part because it already enjoyed such a hefty premium. But with investment costs also rising -- the company has pledged $100 billion in spending over the next three years -- the chip giant felt compelled to pass on some of the burden, sources briefed on the matter said.\nMore urgently, industry sources say, the company is keen to weed out so-called double-booking, in which clients place orders for more chips than they actually need in hopes of securing production line space and support from contract chipmakers amid the global supply crunch. This, in turn, has made it difficult for TSMC to grasp the \"real demand\" picture, sources briefed on the matter told Nikkei.\nClient reactions to the planned price rise are mixed.\n\"We are glad that TSMC eventually adjusted prices so that it could fend off the practice of double-booking, when industry players race to secure enough chip production capacity during a shortage,\" K.S. Pua, chairman and CEO of Phison Electronics, told Nikkei. The leading NAND flash controller chip and solution provider is a client of both TSMC and UMC.\n\"We are still short of supplies and want more chip capacity to support our growth for the second half of 2021,\" Pua said.\nPhison raised its own chip prices around April this year to reflect the rising supply chain costs, and Pua said his company will have discussions with clients about further increases.\nOthers, however, have expressed concern over whether they will be able to pass on these higher costs to customers.\n\"We are all in a great shock and all of our account managers need to speak to our customers to see if we can renegotiate some of the contracts,\" a chip executive told Nikkei. \"We haven't seen TSMC introduce such a broad rate increase in over a decade.\"\nThe impact of TSMC's price will be felt more obviously from next year, analysts say, as the company is still working through existing orders. Customers will also negotiate their own specific terms with TSMC before Oct. 1, when the price hikes officially take effect, they said.\nOverall chip prices, however, have already surged.\nAccording to Dale Gai, research director of Counterpoint Research, chip developers are paying 40% higher production fees for legacy chips that are in the shortest supply.\n\nElectronics makers, meanwhile, face even steeper increases as they try to source enough chips to complete their devices. The price of some microcontroller chips, for example, has jumped from $0.20 each to more than $1, supply chain executives and distributors told Nikkei -- a 400% increase in less than a year.\nThe reason is that these chips, while not necessarily the most important part of a smartphone or server, are still essential and not easily replaced. Such chips can also be stockpiled more easily than, say, CPUs, which quickly become obsolete, so anyone who has extra inventory can name their price if they find a buyer in need.\nPrices have risen in just about every step of the chip supply chain, from basic materials to chip packing and testing services -- the last step before chips are mounted on printed circuit boards.\nFor top chip developers that outsource production -- namely Qualcomm, Nvidia, MediaTek and Advanced Micro Devices -- this translated to an increase in \"cost of sales\" in 2020, according to a Nikkei analysis. Defined as the total cost of production, materials and delivery of goods, cost of sales continued to surge in the first half of 2021.\nMobile chip giant Qualcomm's accumulated cost of sales from last October until June this year jumped nearly 60% on the year, while that of MediaTek, its key Asia rival, increased more than 64% for the same period. Both Qualcomm and MediaTek's revenue surged even more during the period, however, indicating they have adjusted the selling prices of their chips, which are used by the world's major smartphone makers.\nIndustry players and analysts predict strong chip demand -- and thus higher prices -- to continue into next year.\nDoris Hsu, chair and CEO of Globalwafers, the world's third-largest wafer material maker, said the price of wafers -- the essential substrate that all chips are fabricated on -- is set to go up.\n\"Materials and chemicals used in production and transportation logistics costs are all on the rise,\" Hsu said. \"That means we have to adjust the selling price of our wafers, otherwise our profit margin could be affected.\"\nPeter Hanbury, a partner specializing in chip and tech supply chain at Bain & Co., told Nikkei chip prices will likely rise into next year due to the time it takes to expand production capacity.\nChip developers such as Qualcomm, NXP and Nvidia, he added, will likely negotiate to pass these price increases onto their own customers -- namely device makers and electronics builders such as Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, HP, Dell and Ford.\n\"[For] products like smartphones and PCs, the price increases will be more noticeable, while for other devices with limited semiconductor content you may not even notice,\" Hanbury said, referring to the retail prices.\nGai, of Counterpoint Research, said the rising cost of chips may even impact smartphone makers' business strategies.\n\"The net profit margin for smartphone makers excluding Apple is only about 5% to 10%. In that case, the rising chip costs will definitely push all the industry players to roll out higher-end handset models for next year to offset the cost impacts rather than focus on midrange or lower-end phones,\" he said.\nMeanwhile, the race to develop cutting-edge technologies is also expected to keep chip prices high for the long term, particularly the more advanced offerings.\n\"Advanced chip production, such as 7-nanometer, 5-nanometer and future 3-nanometer, is extremely expensive,\" Mark Li, a veteran semiconductor analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein, told Nikkei. \"Only TSMC, Samsung and Intel could afford the investment. I am not going to say those advanced chip prices will never fall, but it's not easy for them to go down much given the scale of the investment,\" Li said.\nFor smaller players and for more mature production technology, Li said the market \"could be more volatile once there is an economic slowdown. The correction could be quite substantial and quick, too.\"\nLi said the most important factor in determining prices, however, is the same as always: demand.\n\"Chip plants operate like airlines. Airlines must shoulder fixed costs even if there are only one or two passengers on board. Chipmaking plants are the same. If the demand slows, they have to lower prices to lure more clients and maintain utilization rates.\"\nTSMC told Nikkei that it will not comment on pricing adjustment but referred to CEO C.C. Wei's statement during an earnings briefing in July, when he said, \"TSMC's pricing strategy is strategic, not opportunistic. At the same time, we face manufacturing cost challenges due to increasing process complexity at leading node, new investment in mature nodes, expansion of our global manufacturing footprint and rising materials and basic commodities cost. Therefore, we are firming up our wafer pricing.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"UMC":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816116452,"gmtCreate":1630477272376,"gmtModify":1631890506248,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816116452","repostId":"1136153067","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893993996,"gmtCreate":1628226509515,"gmtModify":1633752410955,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893993996","repostId":"1199377263","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199377263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628222564,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199377263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive<blockquote>标普500看起来很强劲——但这些“内部因素”远没有那么积极</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199377263","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The S&P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered ","content":"<p>The S&amp;P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered on Tuesday. Yet, the “internals” of the market remain in a far worse state. This has been the case for some time (since June 11, at least), and it may continue to be the case for a while longer.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数继续加速上行。周二创下历史收盘新高。然而，市场的“内部”仍然处于更糟糕的状态。这种情况已经持续了一段时间（至少自6月11日以来），而且这种情况可能会持续一段时间。</blockquote></p><p> But as long as the S&amp;P&nbsp;chart is positive and above support, a “core” long position is recommended.</p><p><blockquote>但只要标普图表为正且高于支撑位，建议建立“核心”多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> The first support level is now roughly 4370. That was the low on the two most recent days on which SPX sold off and then rebounded – July 27 and Tuesday (yes, the same day that SPX bounced back from that level and then closed at a new all-time high). Since it has been doubly tested, that makes it a viable support level. There is resistance at 4430, the all-time intraday high.</p><p><blockquote>第一支撑位现在大致在4370。这是SPX抛售然后反弹的最近两天的低点——7月27日和周二（是的，同一天SPX从该水平反弹，然后收于历史新高）。由于它已经过双重测试，这使它成为一个可行的支撑位。盘中历史高点4430有阻力。</blockquote></p><p> You can see from the accompanying chart that SPX has been in a rather right trading since July 23 – between 4370 and 4430.</p><p><blockquote>你可以从附图中看到，自7月23日以来，SPX一直处于相当正确的交易状态——在4370到4430之间。</blockquote></p><p> A breakout from that range will be significant. If it were to break to the downside, that would be a negative for the SPX chart. Below there, a major support area exists at 4233, and it would likely be tested quickly after a break below 4370.</p><p><blockquote>突破该范围将具有重要意义。如果它向下突破，这将对SPX图表不利。在此下方，主要支撑区域位于4233点，跌破4370点后可能会很快受到测试。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fde9899a8fd1227a022dfe59858d4c5\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So the SPX chart is still positive, but there is a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal in place (green “S” on chart).</p><p><blockquote>因此，SPX图表仍然是积极的，但有一个麦克米兰波动带（MVB）卖出信号（图表上的绿色“S”）。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at some of the indicators that encompass a larger number of stocks. You will see that they are far less positive. First are the equity-only put-call ratios. These have been rising for a month, meaning they have been on sell signals during that time. Put volume has been heavy, relative to call volume, and that is what is causing these ratios to rise. It looks like there is a slight “wiggle” in the standard ratio’s chart, but the computer analysis programs say that is not significant.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看一些包含大量股票的指标。你会发现他们远没有那么积极。首先是仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。这些价格已经上涨了一个月，这意味着在此期间它们一直在发出卖出信号。相对于看涨期权交易量，看跌交易量一直很大，这就是导致这些比率上升的原因。看起来标准比率的图表中有轻微的“波动”，但计算机分析程序说这并不显著。</blockquote></p><p> The larger picture here is that as many stocks have been declining, option traders have been buying puts on those stocks, forcing these equity-only put-call ratios higher. As long as the ratios are rising, they will remain on sell signals.</p><p><blockquote>这里更大的情况是，随着许多股票下跌，期权交易者一直在购买这些股票的看跌期权，迫使这些仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率走高。只要比率上升，它们就会保持卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87099f2be31d9ce51b1b0c4708a9f046\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f08da61f702fd9abb483cd1d8f5b4ba\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market breadth (advances minus declines) has been woeful since mid-June. That is, most stocks are going down, even though SPX is going up. In fact, what is driving this market is a handful of large-cap NASDAQ stocks (the FAANG stocks plus Microsoft are the strongest stocks).</p><p><blockquote>自6月中旬以来，市场广度（上涨减去下跌）一直很糟糕。也就是说，大多数股票都在下跌，尽管SPX在上涨。事实上，推动这个市场的是少数大盘股纳斯达克股票（FAANG股票加上微软是最强的股票）。</blockquote></p><p> Things have improved a little in the last couple of weeks, and so our breadth oscillators are on buy signals, but they are still in negative territory. Normally when SPX is making new all-time highs, the breadth oscillators are will into positive territory, reflecting a strong overall market. But that is not the case now.</p><p><blockquote>过去几周情况有所改善，因此我们的宽度振荡器发出买入信号，但仍处于负值区域。通常情况下，当SPX创下历史新高时，宽度振荡指标将进入正值区域，反映出整体市场强劲。但现在情况并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, cumulative breadth (the running total of daily advances minus declines) has not made a new all-time high since June 11. SPX has made a new closing or intraday high on 19 separate trading days since then. That is a huge, negative market divergence, but it alone is not a sell signal. Rather, it is a strong warning to be alert – to avoid complacency.</p><p><blockquote>此外，自6月11日以来，累计广度（每日涨幅减去跌幅）尚未创下历史新高。此后，SPX已连续19个交易日创下收盘或盘中新高。这是一个巨大的负面市场背离，但它本身并不是卖出信号。相反，这是一个强烈的警告，要保持警惕——避免自满。</blockquote></p><p> New 52-week highs on the NYSE continue to lead new 52-week lows. Recently, there have been some isolated days where new lows exceeded new highs using NASDAQ or “stocks only” data, but not when using NYSE data. That means this indicator remains bullish for stocks. It would turn negative if NYSE new lows exceeded new highs and were sufficiently large, but that has not happened.</p><p><blockquote>纽交所52周新高继续领涨52周新低。最近，有一些孤立的日子，使用纳斯达克或“仅股票”数据，新低超过新高，但使用纽约证券交易所数据时则不然。这意味着该指标仍然看涨股市。如果纽交所新低超过新高且足够大，则会转为负值，但这种情况并未发生。</blockquote></p><p> There is a realized volatility sell signal in place, as well. That occurred when the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility first fell below 8% (in mid-June) and then later rose above 11% (in late July).</p><p><blockquote>还有一个已实现的波动性卖出信号。这发生在标准普尔20天历史波动率首先跌破8%（6月中旬），然后升至11%以上（7月下旬）。</blockquote></p><p> Implied volatility, on the other hand, remains in a bullish state, as far the stock market is concerned. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 remains in place. Moreover, the VIX 200-day moving average is still declining and is well above the price of VIX.There has been a slow “creep” upward by VIX, from 15 to 19 over the last month, but that doesn’t appear to be a significant change of trend.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，就股市而言，隐含波动率仍处于看涨状态。7月20日的VIX“峰值”买入信号仍然存在。而且，VIX 200日均线仍在下降，远高于VIX的价格。上个月，VIX指数从15点缓慢“攀升”至19点，但这似乎并不是趋势的重大变化。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3501a851250cf90d4f08e0152a5d9a9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for the stock market. The VIX futures are trading at a premium to VIX, and the term structures of those VIX futures and the CBOE Volatility Indices slope upward.</p><p><blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的结构对股市仍然有利。VIX期货的交易价格高于VIX，这些VIX期货和CBOE波动率指数的期限结构向上倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> The SPX chart is still positive. That is the most important fact. Until that changes, a long “core” position is recommended. Around that, one can trade confirmed signals – both buy and sell. A violation of the 4370 area by SPX would change things for the negative, but a breakout to new all-time highs above 4430 would reinforce the bullish case.</p><p><blockquote>SPX图表仍然是积极的。这是最重要的事实。在这种情况发生变化之前，建议持有多头“核心”头寸。围绕这一点，人们可以交易确认的信号——买入和卖出。SPX突破4370区域将改变负面影响，但突破4430以上的历史新高将强化看涨理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New recommendation: Conditional SPX sell signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新建议：有条件SPX卖出信号</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the above article, we are going to lay out some parameters regarding taking a bearish position should SPX support be broken:</p><p><blockquote>根据上述文章，我们将列出一些有关在SPX支撑位被突破时采取看跌头寸的参数：</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF SPX trades below 4370 and stays there for an hour,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果SPX低于4370并在那里停留一小时，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy 1 SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后买入1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）平价看跌期权</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并以下跌25点的价格卖出1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）看跌期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> In addition,</p><p><blockquote>此外，</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF SPX closes below 4370,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果SPX收盘低于4370，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy another bear spread:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后再买一个熊市价差：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Buy 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买1（更多）SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）平价看跌期权</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并以较低25点的价格卖出1（更多）SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）看跌期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> Note that it is possible that the second condition (close below 4370) could occur without the first condition being satisfied (if SPX breaks below 4370 late in a trading day). If that is the case, then buy 2 of these spreads on the close.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，在没有满足第一个条件的情况下，第二个条件（收盘低于4370）可能会发生（如果SPX在交易日晚些时候跌破4370）。如果是这样的话，那么在收盘时买入2个这样的价差。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, if these spreads are established, stop yourself out of all of these bear spreads on an SPX close above 4430.</p><p><blockquote>最后，如果这些价差成立，请在SPX收盘价高于4430时停止所有这些熊市价差。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive<blockquote>标普500看起来很强劲——但这些“内部因素”远没有那么积极</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive<blockquote>标普500看起来很强劲——但这些“内部因素”远没有那么积极</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-06 12:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered on Tuesday. Yet, the “internals” of the market remain in a far worse state. This has been the case for some time (since June 11, at least), and it may continue to be the case for a while longer.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数继续加速上行。周二创下历史收盘新高。然而，市场的“内部”仍然处于更糟糕的状态。这种情况已经持续了一段时间（至少自6月11日以来），而且这种情况可能会持续一段时间。</blockquote></p><p> But as long as the S&amp;P&nbsp;chart is positive and above support, a “core” long position is recommended.</p><p><blockquote>但只要标普图表为正且高于支撑位，建议建立“核心”多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> The first support level is now roughly 4370. That was the low on the two most recent days on which SPX sold off and then rebounded – July 27 and Tuesday (yes, the same day that SPX bounced back from that level and then closed at a new all-time high). Since it has been doubly tested, that makes it a viable support level. There is resistance at 4430, the all-time intraday high.</p><p><blockquote>第一支撑位现在大致在4370。这是SPX抛售然后反弹的最近两天的低点——7月27日和周二（是的，同一天SPX从该水平反弹，然后收于历史新高）。由于它已经过双重测试，这使它成为一个可行的支撑位。盘中历史高点4430有阻力。</blockquote></p><p> You can see from the accompanying chart that SPX has been in a rather right trading since July 23 – between 4370 and 4430.</p><p><blockquote>你可以从附图中看到，自7月23日以来，SPX一直处于相当正确的交易状态——在4370到4430之间。</blockquote></p><p> A breakout from that range will be significant. If it were to break to the downside, that would be a negative for the SPX chart. Below there, a major support area exists at 4233, and it would likely be tested quickly after a break below 4370.</p><p><blockquote>突破该范围将具有重要意义。如果它向下突破，这将对SPX图表不利。在此下方，主要支撑区域位于4233点，跌破4370点后可能会很快受到测试。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fde9899a8fd1227a022dfe59858d4c5\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So the SPX chart is still positive, but there is a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal in place (green “S” on chart).</p><p><blockquote>因此，SPX图表仍然是积极的，但有一个麦克米兰波动带（MVB）卖出信号（图表上的绿色“S”）。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at some of the indicators that encompass a larger number of stocks. You will see that they are far less positive. First are the equity-only put-call ratios. These have been rising for a month, meaning they have been on sell signals during that time. Put volume has been heavy, relative to call volume, and that is what is causing these ratios to rise. It looks like there is a slight “wiggle” in the standard ratio’s chart, but the computer analysis programs say that is not significant.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看一些包含大量股票的指标。你会发现他们远没有那么积极。首先是仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。这些价格已经上涨了一个月，这意味着在此期间它们一直在发出卖出信号。相对于看涨期权交易量，看跌交易量一直很大，这就是导致这些比率上升的原因。看起来标准比率的图表中有轻微的“波动”，但计算机分析程序说这并不显著。</blockquote></p><p> The larger picture here is that as many stocks have been declining, option traders have been buying puts on those stocks, forcing these equity-only put-call ratios higher. As long as the ratios are rising, they will remain on sell signals.</p><p><blockquote>这里更大的情况是，随着许多股票下跌，期权交易者一直在购买这些股票的看跌期权，迫使这些仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率走高。只要比率上升，它们就会保持卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87099f2be31d9ce51b1b0c4708a9f046\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f08da61f702fd9abb483cd1d8f5b4ba\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market breadth (advances minus declines) has been woeful since mid-June. That is, most stocks are going down, even though SPX is going up. In fact, what is driving this market is a handful of large-cap NASDAQ stocks (the FAANG stocks plus Microsoft are the strongest stocks).</p><p><blockquote>自6月中旬以来，市场广度（上涨减去下跌）一直很糟糕。也就是说，大多数股票都在下跌，尽管SPX在上涨。事实上，推动这个市场的是少数大盘股纳斯达克股票（FAANG股票加上微软是最强的股票）。</blockquote></p><p> Things have improved a little in the last couple of weeks, and so our breadth oscillators are on buy signals, but they are still in negative territory. Normally when SPX is making new all-time highs, the breadth oscillators are will into positive territory, reflecting a strong overall market. But that is not the case now.</p><p><blockquote>过去几周情况有所改善，因此我们的宽度振荡器发出买入信号，但仍处于负值区域。通常情况下，当SPX创下历史新高时，宽度振荡指标将进入正值区域，反映出整体市场强劲。但现在情况并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, cumulative breadth (the running total of daily advances minus declines) has not made a new all-time high since June 11. SPX has made a new closing or intraday high on 19 separate trading days since then. That is a huge, negative market divergence, but it alone is not a sell signal. Rather, it is a strong warning to be alert – to avoid complacency.</p><p><blockquote>此外，自6月11日以来，累计广度（每日涨幅减去跌幅）尚未创下历史新高。此后，SPX已连续19个交易日创下收盘或盘中新高。这是一个巨大的负面市场背离，但它本身并不是卖出信号。相反，这是一个强烈的警告，要保持警惕——避免自满。</blockquote></p><p> New 52-week highs on the NYSE continue to lead new 52-week lows. Recently, there have been some isolated days where new lows exceeded new highs using NASDAQ or “stocks only” data, but not when using NYSE data. That means this indicator remains bullish for stocks. It would turn negative if NYSE new lows exceeded new highs and were sufficiently large, but that has not happened.</p><p><blockquote>纽交所52周新高继续领涨52周新低。最近，有一些孤立的日子，使用纳斯达克或“仅股票”数据，新低超过新高，但使用纽约证券交易所数据时则不然。这意味着该指标仍然看涨股市。如果纽交所新低超过新高且足够大，则会转为负值，但这种情况并未发生。</blockquote></p><p> There is a realized volatility sell signal in place, as well. That occurred when the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility first fell below 8% (in mid-June) and then later rose above 11% (in late July).</p><p><blockquote>还有一个已实现的波动性卖出信号。这发生在标准普尔20天历史波动率首先跌破8%（6月中旬），然后升至11%以上（7月下旬）。</blockquote></p><p> Implied volatility, on the other hand, remains in a bullish state, as far the stock market is concerned. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 remains in place. Moreover, the VIX 200-day moving average is still declining and is well above the price of VIX.There has been a slow “creep” upward by VIX, from 15 to 19 over the last month, but that doesn’t appear to be a significant change of trend.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，就股市而言，隐含波动率仍处于看涨状态。7月20日的VIX“峰值”买入信号仍然存在。而且，VIX 200日均线仍在下降，远高于VIX的价格。上个月，VIX指数从15点缓慢“攀升”至19点，但这似乎并不是趋势的重大变化。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3501a851250cf90d4f08e0152a5d9a9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for the stock market. The VIX futures are trading at a premium to VIX, and the term structures of those VIX futures and the CBOE Volatility Indices slope upward.</p><p><blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的结构对股市仍然有利。VIX期货的交易价格高于VIX，这些VIX期货和CBOE波动率指数的期限结构向上倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> The SPX chart is still positive. That is the most important fact. Until that changes, a long “core” position is recommended. Around that, one can trade confirmed signals – both buy and sell. A violation of the 4370 area by SPX would change things for the negative, but a breakout to new all-time highs above 4430 would reinforce the bullish case.</p><p><blockquote>SPX图表仍然是积极的。这是最重要的事实。在这种情况发生变化之前，建议持有多头“核心”头寸。围绕这一点，人们可以交易确认的信号——买入和卖出。SPX突破4370区域将改变负面影响，但突破4430以上的历史新高将强化看涨理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New recommendation: Conditional SPX sell signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新建议：有条件SPX卖出信号</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the above article, we are going to lay out some parameters regarding taking a bearish position should SPX support be broken:</p><p><blockquote>根据上述文章，我们将列出一些有关在SPX支撑位被突破时采取看跌头寸的参数：</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF SPX trades below 4370 and stays there for an hour,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果SPX低于4370并在那里停留一小时，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy 1 SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后买入1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）平价看跌期权</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并以下跌25点的价格卖出1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）看跌期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> In addition,</p><p><blockquote>此外，</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF SPX closes below 4370,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果SPX收盘低于4370，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy another bear spread:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后再买一个熊市价差：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Buy 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买1（更多）SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）平价看跌期权</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并以较低25点的价格卖出1（更多）SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）看跌期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> Note that it is possible that the second condition (close below 4370) could occur without the first condition being satisfied (if SPX breaks below 4370 late in a trading day). If that is the case, then buy 2 of these spreads on the close.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，在没有满足第一个条件的情况下，第二个条件（收盘低于4370）可能会发生（如果SPX在交易日晚些时候跌破4370）。如果是这样的话，那么在收盘时买入2个这样的价差。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, if these spreads are established, stop yourself out of all of these bear spreads on an SPX close above 4430.</p><p><blockquote>最后，如果这些价差成立，请在SPX收盘价高于4430时停止所有这些熊市价差。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-looks-strong-but-these-internals-are-far-less-positive-01628176855?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-looks-strong-but-these-internals-are-far-less-positive-01628176855?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199377263","content_text":"The S&P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered on Tuesday. Yet, the “internals” of the market remain in a far worse state. This has been the case for some time (since June 11, at least), and it may continue to be the case for a while longer.\nBut as long as the S&P chart is positive and above support, a “core” long position is recommended.\nThe first support level is now roughly 4370. That was the low on the two most recent days on which SPX sold off and then rebounded – July 27 and Tuesday (yes, the same day that SPX bounced back from that level and then closed at a new all-time high). Since it has been doubly tested, that makes it a viable support level. There is resistance at 4430, the all-time intraday high.\nYou can see from the accompanying chart that SPX has been in a rather right trading since July 23 – between 4370 and 4430.\nA breakout from that range will be significant. If it were to break to the downside, that would be a negative for the SPX chart. Below there, a major support area exists at 4233, and it would likely be tested quickly after a break below 4370.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nSo the SPX chart is still positive, but there is a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal in place (green “S” on chart).\nNow let’s look at some of the indicators that encompass a larger number of stocks. You will see that they are far less positive. First are the equity-only put-call ratios. These have been rising for a month, meaning they have been on sell signals during that time. Put volume has been heavy, relative to call volume, and that is what is causing these ratios to rise. It looks like there is a slight “wiggle” in the standard ratio’s chart, but the computer analysis programs say that is not significant.\nThe larger picture here is that as many stocks have been declining, option traders have been buying puts on those stocks, forcing these equity-only put-call ratios higher. As long as the ratios are rising, they will remain on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nMarket breadth (advances minus declines) has been woeful since mid-June. That is, most stocks are going down, even though SPX is going up. In fact, what is driving this market is a handful of large-cap NASDAQ stocks (the FAANG stocks plus Microsoft are the strongest stocks).\nThings have improved a little in the last couple of weeks, and so our breadth oscillators are on buy signals, but they are still in negative territory. Normally when SPX is making new all-time highs, the breadth oscillators are will into positive territory, reflecting a strong overall market. But that is not the case now.\nMoreover, cumulative breadth (the running total of daily advances minus declines) has not made a new all-time high since June 11. SPX has made a new closing or intraday high on 19 separate trading days since then. That is a huge, negative market divergence, but it alone is not a sell signal. Rather, it is a strong warning to be alert – to avoid complacency.\nNew 52-week highs on the NYSE continue to lead new 52-week lows. Recently, there have been some isolated days where new lows exceeded new highs using NASDAQ or “stocks only” data, but not when using NYSE data. That means this indicator remains bullish for stocks. It would turn negative if NYSE new lows exceeded new highs and were sufficiently large, but that has not happened.\nThere is a realized volatility sell signal in place, as well. That occurred when the S&P’s 20-day historical volatility first fell below 8% (in mid-June) and then later rose above 11% (in late July).\nImplied volatility, on the other hand, remains in a bullish state, as far the stock market is concerned. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 remains in place. Moreover, the VIX 200-day moving average is still declining and is well above the price of VIX.There has been a slow “creep” upward by VIX, from 15 to 19 over the last month, but that doesn’t appear to be a significant change of trend.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for the stock market. The VIX futures are trading at a premium to VIX, and the term structures of those VIX futures and the CBOE Volatility Indices slope upward.\nThe SPX chart is still positive. That is the most important fact. Until that changes, a long “core” position is recommended. Around that, one can trade confirmed signals – both buy and sell. A violation of the 4370 area by SPX would change things for the negative, but a breakout to new all-time highs above 4430 would reinforce the bullish case.\nNew recommendation: Conditional SPX sell signal\nBased on the above article, we are going to lay out some parameters regarding taking a bearish position should SPX support be broken:\nIF SPX trades below 4370 and stays there for an hour,\nTHEN buy 1 SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.\nIn addition,\nIF SPX closes below 4370,\nTHEN buy another bear spread:\n            Buy 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.\nNote that it is possible that the second condition (close below 4370) could occur without the first condition being satisfied (if SPX breaks below 4370 late in a trading day). If that is the case, then buy 2 of these spreads on the close.\nFinally, if these spreads are established, stop yourself out of all of these bear spreads on an SPX close above 4430.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802284379,"gmtCreate":1627783077091,"gmtModify":1633756464352,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802284379","repostId":"2155001152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803686122,"gmtCreate":1627436218966,"gmtModify":1633765012183,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803686122","repostId":"2154991792","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809319595,"gmtCreate":1627347709817,"gmtModify":1633765898640,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809319595","repostId":"1153028059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153028059","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627340900,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153028059?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars<blockquote>特斯拉销量猛增98%；公司提高了成本较低的电动汽车的利润率</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153028059","media":"Reuters","summary":" -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operati","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-特斯拉公司周二公布的第二季度利润高于预期，这得益于其较便宜的电动汽车销量大幅增长，该公司提高了价格以提高其利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉还削减了成本，这有助于抵消汽车行业面临的许多供应链和微芯片短缺问题。</blockquote></p><p> For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年底以来，特斯拉的利润首次不依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售环境信用，这表明制造业务的财务状况日益健康。特斯拉通过削减其称未使用或不需要的功能以及提高美国汽车价格来提高其业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.</p><p><blockquote>这家全球最有价值汽车制造商的股价在盘后交易中上涨1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.</p><p><blockquote>在与投资者和分析师的看涨期权中，特斯拉高管表示，量产增长将取决于零部件供应情况，马斯克警告称，半导体短缺将持续。</blockquote></p><p> “The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.</p><p><blockquote>“全球芯片短缺的情况仍然相当严重，”马斯克说。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Musk表示，特斯拉预计今年将在德克萨斯和德意志的在建工厂投产Model Y SUV。他表示，该公司预计电池供应商明年的产量将翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临疫情和供应链危机，但得益于Model 3轿车和Model Y等更便宜车型的销售，特斯拉在本季度的交付量仍创下了纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这家由亿万富翁企业家埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)领导的汽车制造商表示，收入从一年前的60.4亿美元跃升至119.6亿美元，当时其加州工厂因当地抗击疫情的封锁令而关闭了六周多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，分析师此前预计营收约为113亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.</p><p><blockquote>剔除项目后，特斯拉公布的每股利润为1.45美元，轻松超过分析师预期的每股98美分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，营业收入随着销量增长和成本降低而上升，这抵消了供应链成本上升、监管信贷收入下降和其他项目，包括加密货币比特币投资损失2300万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的盈利能力通常依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售监管信用，但在第二季度，特斯拉自2019年底以来首次在没有这些信用的情况下实现盈利。其第二季度GAAP净利润为11.4亿美元。这些积分的收入总计仅为3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.</p><p><blockquote>Investing.com高级分析师Jesse Cohen表示：“特斯拉对其数据印象深刻，因为其大部分收入来自汽车销售。”</blockquote></p><p> Carmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商Stellantis预计今年将在没有从特斯拉购买环境信用额的情况下实现其欧洲二氧化碳(CO2)排放目标。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，由于今年电池和其他零部件的供应有限，该公司已将Semi卡车计划的启动推迟到2022年，以专注于启动工厂。</blockquote></p><p> But the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>但该公司的新型4680电池尚未准备好量产；高管们表示，很难预测技术挑战何时能得到解决。</blockquote></p><p> In an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，马斯克表示，他“很可能不会在财报评级上”与投资者和分析师讨论财务业绩。这些评级是马斯克每季度举行的一次丰富多彩的仪式，马斯克用它来讨论特斯拉技术，或者回击竞争对手或批评者。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars<blockquote>特斯拉销量猛增98%；公司提高了成本较低的电动汽车的利润率</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars<blockquote>特斯拉销量猛增98%；公司提高了成本较低的电动汽车的利润率</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 07:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-特斯拉公司周二公布的第二季度利润高于预期，这得益于其较便宜的电动汽车销量大幅增长，该公司提高了价格以提高其利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉还削减了成本，这有助于抵消汽车行业面临的许多供应链和微芯片短缺问题。</blockquote></p><p> For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年底以来，特斯拉的利润首次不依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售环境信用，这表明制造业务的财务状况日益健康。特斯拉通过削减其称未使用或不需要的功能以及提高美国汽车价格来提高其业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.</p><p><blockquote>这家全球最有价值汽车制造商的股价在盘后交易中上涨1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.</p><p><blockquote>在与投资者和分析师的看涨期权中，特斯拉高管表示，量产增长将取决于零部件供应情况，马斯克警告称，半导体短缺将持续。</blockquote></p><p> “The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.</p><p><blockquote>“全球芯片短缺的情况仍然相当严重，”马斯克说。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Musk表示，特斯拉预计今年将在德克萨斯和德意志的在建工厂投产Model Y SUV。他表示，该公司预计电池供应商明年的产量将翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临疫情和供应链危机，但得益于Model 3轿车和Model Y等更便宜车型的销售，特斯拉在本季度的交付量仍创下了纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这家由亿万富翁企业家埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)领导的汽车制造商表示，收入从一年前的60.4亿美元跃升至119.6亿美元，当时其加州工厂因当地抗击疫情的封锁令而关闭了六周多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，分析师此前预计营收约为113亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.</p><p><blockquote>剔除项目后，特斯拉公布的每股利润为1.45美元，轻松超过分析师预期的每股98美分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，营业收入随着销量增长和成本降低而上升，这抵消了供应链成本上升、监管信贷收入下降和其他项目，包括加密货币比特币投资损失2300万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的盈利能力通常依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售监管信用，但在第二季度，特斯拉自2019年底以来首次在没有这些信用的情况下实现盈利。其第二季度GAAP净利润为11.4亿美元。这些积分的收入总计仅为3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.</p><p><blockquote>Investing.com高级分析师Jesse Cohen表示：“特斯拉对其数据印象深刻，因为其大部分收入来自汽车销售。”</blockquote></p><p> Carmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商Stellantis预计今年将在没有从特斯拉购买环境信用额的情况下实现其欧洲二氧化碳(CO2)排放目标。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，由于今年电池和其他零部件的供应有限，该公司已将Semi卡车计划的启动推迟到2022年，以专注于启动工厂。</blockquote></p><p> But the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>但该公司的新型4680电池尚未准备好量产；高管们表示，很难预测技术挑战何时能得到解决。</blockquote></p><p> In an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，马斯克表示，他“很可能不会在财报评级上”与投资者和分析师讨论财务业绩。这些评级是马斯克每季度举行的一次丰富多彩的仪式，马斯克用它来讨论特斯拉技术，或者回击竞争对手或批评者。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-results/update-4-tesla-sales-surge-98-company-boosts-margins-on-its-less-costly-electric-cars-idUSL4N2P23I5\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-results/update-4-tesla-sales-surge-98-company-boosts-margins-on-its-less-costly-electric-cars-idUSL4N2P23I5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153028059","content_text":"(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.\nTesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.\nFor the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.\nShares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.\nIn a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.\n“The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.\nStill, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.\nDespite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.\nThe carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.\nAnalysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nExcluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.\nTesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.\nTesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.\n“Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.\nCarmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.\nTesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.\nBut the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.\nIn an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177603930,"gmtCreate":1627203313520,"gmtModify":1633767182416,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177603930","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":600497018,"gmtCreate":1638183862457,"gmtModify":1638183863107,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600497018","repostId":"2187329491","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2187329491","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1638140520,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2187329491?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-29 07:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀对周一股市交易可能意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2187329491","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.What isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do","content":"<p>OMG, omicron!</p><p><blockquote>天哪，奥密克戎！</blockquote></p><p> The new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>世界卫生组织宣布的新型快速传播的B.1.1.529冠状病毒变种在黑色星期五扰乱了全球市场，引发了人们对未来一周经济和华尔街表现的担忧。标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数11月份的涨幅被抹去，道琼斯工业平均指数创下2020年10月28日以来的最大单日跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> WHO said that the omicron variant, which has been detected in Belgium, Israel, and Hong Kong and was first identified in southern parts of Africa, is more transmissible than the delta strain that is currently dominant world-wide, and other variants.</p><p><blockquote>世卫组织表示，已在比利时、以色列和香港发现并首先在非洲南部地区发现的奥密克戎变种比目前在全球范围内占主导地位的德尔塔毒株和其他变种更具传播性。</blockquote></p><p> The emergence of the new strain led to the White House announcing restrictions, starting on Monday, on travel for non-U.S. citizens and residents from South Africa, as well as from Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi, joining the European Union, the U.K., Singapore and Japan, which also announced similar travel bans.</p><p><blockquote>新毒株的出现导致白宫宣布从周一开始限制来自南非以及博茨瓦纳、津巴布韦、纳米比亚、莱索托、斯威士兰、莫桑比克和马拉维的非美国公民和居民的旅行，加入了欧盟、英国、新加坡和日本的行列，这些国家也宣布了类似的旅行禁令。</blockquote></p><p> The market selloff during the abbreviated Black Friday session and the commensurate flight to assets that investors hope will perform better amid fresh mobility restrictions, helped to overshadow the usual focus on retail, on a day associated with heavy consumer spending ahead of the Christmas holiday. Friday's downturn also offered a crystal clear reminder that the path of the market and economy hinges on the course of COVID.</p><p><blockquote>短暂的黑色星期五交易期间的市场抛售，以及投资者希望在新的流动性限制中表现更好的资产的相应外逃，有助于掩盖通常对零售业的关注，而这一天与圣诞节假期前消费者支出旺盛有关。周五的低迷也清楚地提醒人们，市场和经济的发展取决于新冠疫情的进程。</blockquote></p><p> What isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do lasting harm to the complexion of the market. Omicron comes at a fragile time for optimistic investors, with bears pointing to lofty stock market valuations, inflation worries and global economic growth concerns as reasons to expect a drawdown in equities that have managed to avoid a decline from a peak of more than 5%.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚的是，冠状病毒的最新发展是否会对市场格局造成持久损害。对于乐观的投资者来说，奥密克戎正值脆弱时期，空头指出，股市估值过高、通胀担忧和全球经济增长担忧是预计股市将下跌的理由，而股市已成功避免了从超过5%的峰值下跌。</blockquote></p><p> In theory, Friday's post-Thanksgiving environment is traditionally lightly traded and therefore more susceptible to outsize price swings.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，周五感恩节后的环境传统上交易清淡，因此更容易受到价格大幅波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq saw its lowest volume of the year on Black Friday, with 3.479 billion shares trading hands, well below the year-to-date average of 5.099 billion. The total composite volume, including trading on Intercontinental Exchange&nbsp;-owned NYSE platforms, was 8.760 billion, compared with an year-to-date average of 11.196 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克在黑色星期五创下今年最低成交量，交易量为34.79亿股，远低于今年迄今50.99亿股的平均水平。根据道琼斯市场数据，包括洲际交易所旗下纽约证券交易所平台的交易在内的综合交易量为87.60亿美元，而今年迄今的平均交易量为111.96亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Still, only time will tell whether the reaction to omicron is a textbook, knee-jerk selloff or something more sinister.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，只有时间才能证明对奥密克戎的反应是教科书式的、下意识的抛售还是更险恶的东西。</blockquote></p><p> MarketWatch's Bill Watts wrote, citing Friday research from Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, that the next level of support to watch for the S&amp;P 500 after closing at 4,594,62 on Friday is at 4,570, the 50-day exponential average; 4,566, the 38.2% retracement of the rally; and 4,550, a previous high from early September.</p><p><blockquote>MarketWatch的Bill Watts援引Arbeter Investments的Mark Arbeter周五的研究写道，在周五收于4,594, 62点后，标普500值得关注的下一个支撑位是4,570点，即50天指数平均线；4,566，反弹38.2%回撤位；4550，为9月初以来的新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"It is too early to know to what extent the new variant will affect economies and markets, and Friday's market moves have probably been exacerbated by reduced liquidity owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the risk that further bad news emerges over the weekend,\" writes Jonas Goltermann senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday research note.</p><p><blockquote>“现在知道新变种将在多大程度上影响经济和市场还为时过早，周五的市场走势可能因美国感恩节假期导致流动性减少以及周末出现进一步坏消息的风险而加剧，”凯投宏观高级市场经济学家乔纳斯·戈尔特曼(Jonas Goltermann)在周五的一份研究报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> J.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog writes that things could get dicey if the S&amp;P 500 is driven below 4,500, with little support beneath that point.</p><p><blockquote>J.C.All Star Charts博客的Parets写道，如果标普500跌破4,500点，事情可能会变得危险，并且低于该点几乎没有支撑。</blockquote></p><p> \"You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&amp;P 500, nothing good happens below 4500,\" he writes in a Friday blog.</p><p><blockquote>“你知道父母总是告诉你午夜之后就不会有好事发生吗？在标普500，低于4500点就不会有好事发生，”他在周五的博客中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfdc3ebd8825870bc713469baf0d1b2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>All Star Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全明星图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted,\" Parets writes.</p><p><blockquote>帕雷茨写道：“如果我们低于这个水平，那么可能存在更大的问题，18个月内最重的现金头寸将是合理的。”</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts say that there are legitimate reasons for unease, on the public health front.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析人士表示，在公共卫生方面，有合理的理由感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fact that this variant seems to be spreading much faster than previous versions (including the Delta variant) bears very careful monitoring,\" wrote Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, in a research note. There are some questions about the effectiveness of existing COVID vaccines from Pfizer&nbsp;and Moderna&nbsp;due to the number of mutations that the omicron variant bears on the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus targeted by COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷全球首席投资官Michael Strobaek在一份研究报告中写道：“这种变种似乎比以前的版本（包括德尔塔变异毒株）传播得更快，这一事实值得非常仔细的监控。”由于奥密克戎变种在刺突蛋白上携带的突变数量，辉瑞和Moderna现有新冠疫苗的有效性存在一些疑问。刺突蛋白是新冠肺炎疫苗针对的病毒部分。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst at Jefferies led by analyst Sean Darby note that risk-appetite was already edging lower before Black Friday and the selloff may have been a \"tipping point\" in favor of caution and risk moderation.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师肖恩·达比(Sean Darby)领导的分析师指出，在黑色星期五之前，风险偏好已经小幅走低，抛售可能是有利于谨慎和风险适度的“转折点”。</blockquote></p><p> \"The news of a new or not so new COVID variant spreading in Southern Africaappears to have been the tipping point in altering risk appetite in the past 24 hours,\" the Jefferies analyst wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞分析师写道：“一种新的或不那么新的新冠病毒变种在南部非洲传播的消息似乎是过去24小时内改变风险偏好的转折点。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"However, there has been a sea change in risk variables over the past month -- anincreasing number of 'tailed treasury auctions', declining equity market breadth andthe imperceptible change in US retail appetite that seems to have gone unnoticed.Positioning in global equities is one of the most aggressive in US history,\" according to Darby and his colleagues.</p><p><blockquote>“然而，过去一个月风险变量发生了翻天覆地的变化——‘尾部国债拍卖’数量不断增加，股市广度下降，以及美国散户兴趣似乎没有被注意到的难以察觉的变化。全球股市的定位是美国历史上最激进的之一，”达比和他的同事表示。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies research suggests that investors are now expecting that the Federal Reserve, under renominated Chairman Jerome Powell, will hasten the pace of reductions in the central bank's asset purchases, which will lead to tighter financial conditions that could prove unfavorable to risky assets. Goldman Sachs sees the Fed stepping up tapering to $30 billion a month from a reduction of $15 billion, and estimates three policy interest rate increases in 2022, up from two.</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies research表示，投资者现在预计，在重新提名的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的领导下，美联储将加快缩减央行资产购买的步伐，这将导致金融状况收紧，可能对风险资产不利。高盛预计美联储将从每月减少150亿美元的缩减规模增加到300亿美元，并预计2022年将加息三次，高于两次。</blockquote></p><p> \"Ultimately the Sharpe ratio -- a measure of return per unit of risk -- isturning for global equities. We expect the gap between the performance of risky and safe haven assets to diminish,\" Jefferies wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞写道：“最终，全球股市的夏普比率（衡量单位风险回报的指标）正在发生变化。我们预计风险资产和避险资产表现之间的差距将缩小。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2b6cd6fadb4dd80d04e06539404155\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>via Jefferies</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过杰弗里斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The situation could still prove a buying opportunity for bold investors, however.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于大胆的投资者来说，这种情况仍然可能是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> Strobaek wrote that \"risk assets such as equities are likely to give back some strength, but we would see this as an opportunity in selective and specific areas.\"</p><p><blockquote>Strobaek写道，“股票等风险资产可能会恢复一些实力，但我们认为这是选择性和特定领域的机会。”</blockquote></p><p> \"At this point, we reiterate our assessment from the latest Investment Committee report, i.e. keeping equities at a small overweight in portfolios and government bonds at an underweight,\" the Credit Suisse CIO writes.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席信息官写道：“目前，我们重申投资委员会最新报告中的评估，即将投资组合中的股票保持在较小的跑赢大盘，将政府债券保持在跑输大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at Citigroup also said that \"we would buy into any dip,\" noting that its bearish checklist doesn't indicate significant red flags. \"Valuations look stretched, but other factors (credit spreads, fund flows) are not yet especially extended,\" Citi writes, with 7.5 out of 18 red flags triggered in its measures of global markets while the U.S. is seeing 9.5 of 18.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团分析师还表示，“我们会逢低买入”，并指出其看跌清单并未表明重大危险信号。花旗写道：“估值看起来很高，但其他因素（信用利差、资金流）尚未特别扩大。”在其对全球市场的衡量中，18个危险信号中有7.5个被触发，而美国的危险信号中有9.5个被触发。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4fba734970a8c977a13d6972402b65f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Citi Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>花旗研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in Port Chester, NY says that the end-of-week selling may have resulted in a Black Friday sale for stock-market investors.</p><p><blockquote>纽约州切斯特港AXS Investments首席执行官格雷格·巴苏克(Greg Bassuk)表示，周末的抛售可能导致股市投资者出现黑色星期五抛售。</blockquote></p><p> \"Black Friday is typically the unofficial kick-off to the annual holiday shopping season. But we believe the real shopping is for stocks that are beaten-down from Covid infection spikes, inflation fears, and supply chain woes, but that still possess strong fundamentals that will drive their gains as the economy ultimately reopens,\" he wrote</p><p><blockquote>“黑色星期五通常是一年一度的假日购物季的非正式开始。但我们认为，真正的购物是那些因新冠感染激增、通胀担忧和供应链困境而遭受重创，但仍拥有强劲基本面的股票。随着经济最终重新开放，这将推动他们的上涨，”他写道</blockquote></p><p> That said, some analysts note that the lockdowns playing out in Europe and the spread of COVID, even before the omicron declaration, were reasons to be cautious since they will impact the global growth outlook.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，一些分析师指出，即使在《奥密克戎宣言》发表之前，欧洲的封锁和新冠病毒的传播也是保持谨慎的理由，因为它们将影响全球增长前景。</blockquote></p><p> Either way, it seems that a degree of caveat emptor may be in force next week and could color trading for the remainder of the 2021.</p><p><blockquote>不管怎样，某种程度的买者自负似乎可能会在下周生效，并可能影响2021年剩余时间的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Trading on Monday will help determine whether bullishness persists or if a bearish phase is crystallizing.</p><p><blockquote>周一的交易将有助于确定看涨情绪是否持续，或者看跌阶段是否正在具体化。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a week focused on the state of employment, with the November U.S. jobs report due at the end of the week and Powell and others offering their final thoughts before a media blackout period starting ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of 2021 on Dec. 14-15.</p><p><blockquote>这将是关注就业状况的一周，11月美国就业报告将于本周末发布，鲍威尔和其他人将在联邦公开市场委员会2021年最后一次会议之前开始的媒体封锁期之前发表最终想法12月14日至15日。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀对周一股市交易可能意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀对周一股市交易可能意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-29 07:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OMG, omicron!</p><p><blockquote>天哪，奥密克戎！</blockquote></p><p> The new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>世界卫生组织宣布的新型快速传播的B.1.1.529冠状病毒变种在黑色星期五扰乱了全球市场，引发了人们对未来一周经济和华尔街表现的担忧。标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数11月份的涨幅被抹去，道琼斯工业平均指数创下2020年10月28日以来的最大单日跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> WHO said that the omicron variant, which has been detected in Belgium, Israel, and Hong Kong and was first identified in southern parts of Africa, is more transmissible than the delta strain that is currently dominant world-wide, and other variants.</p><p><blockquote>世卫组织表示，已在比利时、以色列和香港发现并首先在非洲南部地区发现的奥密克戎变种比目前在全球范围内占主导地位的德尔塔毒株和其他变种更具传播性。</blockquote></p><p> The emergence of the new strain led to the White House announcing restrictions, starting on Monday, on travel for non-U.S. citizens and residents from South Africa, as well as from Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi, joining the European Union, the U.K., Singapore and Japan, which also announced similar travel bans.</p><p><blockquote>新毒株的出现导致白宫宣布从周一开始限制来自南非以及博茨瓦纳、津巴布韦、纳米比亚、莱索托、斯威士兰、莫桑比克和马拉维的非美国公民和居民的旅行，加入了欧盟、英国、新加坡和日本的行列，这些国家也宣布了类似的旅行禁令。</blockquote></p><p> The market selloff during the abbreviated Black Friday session and the commensurate flight to assets that investors hope will perform better amid fresh mobility restrictions, helped to overshadow the usual focus on retail, on a day associated with heavy consumer spending ahead of the Christmas holiday. Friday's downturn also offered a crystal clear reminder that the path of the market and economy hinges on the course of COVID.</p><p><blockquote>短暂的黑色星期五交易期间的市场抛售，以及投资者希望在新的流动性限制中表现更好的资产的相应外逃，有助于掩盖通常对零售业的关注，而这一天与圣诞节假期前消费者支出旺盛有关。周五的低迷也清楚地提醒人们，市场和经济的发展取决于新冠疫情的进程。</blockquote></p><p> What isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do lasting harm to the complexion of the market. Omicron comes at a fragile time for optimistic investors, with bears pointing to lofty stock market valuations, inflation worries and global economic growth concerns as reasons to expect a drawdown in equities that have managed to avoid a decline from a peak of more than 5%.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚的是，冠状病毒的最新发展是否会对市场格局造成持久损害。对于乐观的投资者来说，奥密克戎正值脆弱时期，空头指出，股市估值过高、通胀担忧和全球经济增长担忧是预计股市将下跌的理由，而股市已成功避免了从超过5%的峰值下跌。</blockquote></p><p> In theory, Friday's post-Thanksgiving environment is traditionally lightly traded and therefore more susceptible to outsize price swings.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，周五感恩节后的环境传统上交易清淡，因此更容易受到价格大幅波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq saw its lowest volume of the year on Black Friday, with 3.479 billion shares trading hands, well below the year-to-date average of 5.099 billion. The total composite volume, including trading on Intercontinental Exchange&nbsp;-owned NYSE platforms, was 8.760 billion, compared with an year-to-date average of 11.196 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克在黑色星期五创下今年最低成交量，交易量为34.79亿股，远低于今年迄今50.99亿股的平均水平。根据道琼斯市场数据，包括洲际交易所旗下纽约证券交易所平台的交易在内的综合交易量为87.60亿美元，而今年迄今的平均交易量为111.96亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Still, only time will tell whether the reaction to omicron is a textbook, knee-jerk selloff or something more sinister.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，只有时间才能证明对奥密克戎的反应是教科书式的、下意识的抛售还是更险恶的东西。</blockquote></p><p> MarketWatch's Bill Watts wrote, citing Friday research from Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, that the next level of support to watch for the S&amp;P 500 after closing at 4,594,62 on Friday is at 4,570, the 50-day exponential average; 4,566, the 38.2% retracement of the rally; and 4,550, a previous high from early September.</p><p><blockquote>MarketWatch的Bill Watts援引Arbeter Investments的Mark Arbeter周五的研究写道，在周五收于4,594, 62点后，标普500值得关注的下一个支撑位是4,570点，即50天指数平均线；4,566，反弹38.2%回撤位；4550，为9月初以来的新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"It is too early to know to what extent the new variant will affect economies and markets, and Friday's market moves have probably been exacerbated by reduced liquidity owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the risk that further bad news emerges over the weekend,\" writes Jonas Goltermann senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday research note.</p><p><blockquote>“现在知道新变种将在多大程度上影响经济和市场还为时过早，周五的市场走势可能因美国感恩节假期导致流动性减少以及周末出现进一步坏消息的风险而加剧，”凯投宏观高级市场经济学家乔纳斯·戈尔特曼(Jonas Goltermann)在周五的一份研究报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> J.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog writes that things could get dicey if the S&amp;P 500 is driven below 4,500, with little support beneath that point.</p><p><blockquote>J.C.All Star Charts博客的Parets写道，如果标普500跌破4,500点，事情可能会变得危险，并且低于该点几乎没有支撑。</blockquote></p><p> \"You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&amp;P 500, nothing good happens below 4500,\" he writes in a Friday blog.</p><p><blockquote>“你知道父母总是告诉你午夜之后就不会有好事发生吗？在标普500，低于4500点就不会有好事发生，”他在周五的博客中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfdc3ebd8825870bc713469baf0d1b2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>All Star Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全明星图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted,\" Parets writes.</p><p><blockquote>帕雷茨写道：“如果我们低于这个水平，那么可能存在更大的问题，18个月内最重的现金头寸将是合理的。”</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts say that there are legitimate reasons for unease, on the public health front.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析人士表示，在公共卫生方面，有合理的理由感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fact that this variant seems to be spreading much faster than previous versions (including the Delta variant) bears very careful monitoring,\" wrote Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, in a research note. There are some questions about the effectiveness of existing COVID vaccines from Pfizer&nbsp;and Moderna&nbsp;due to the number of mutations that the omicron variant bears on the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus targeted by COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷全球首席投资官Michael Strobaek在一份研究报告中写道：“这种变种似乎比以前的版本（包括德尔塔变异毒株）传播得更快，这一事实值得非常仔细的监控。”由于奥密克戎变种在刺突蛋白上携带的突变数量，辉瑞和Moderna现有新冠疫苗的有效性存在一些疑问。刺突蛋白是新冠肺炎疫苗针对的病毒部分。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst at Jefferies led by analyst Sean Darby note that risk-appetite was already edging lower before Black Friday and the selloff may have been a \"tipping point\" in favor of caution and risk moderation.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师肖恩·达比(Sean Darby)领导的分析师指出，在黑色星期五之前，风险偏好已经小幅走低，抛售可能是有利于谨慎和风险适度的“转折点”。</blockquote></p><p> \"The news of a new or not so new COVID variant spreading in Southern Africaappears to have been the tipping point in altering risk appetite in the past 24 hours,\" the Jefferies analyst wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞分析师写道：“一种新的或不那么新的新冠病毒变种在南部非洲传播的消息似乎是过去24小时内改变风险偏好的转折点。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"However, there has been a sea change in risk variables over the past month -- anincreasing number of 'tailed treasury auctions', declining equity market breadth andthe imperceptible change in US retail appetite that seems to have gone unnoticed.Positioning in global equities is one of the most aggressive in US history,\" according to Darby and his colleagues.</p><p><blockquote>“然而，过去一个月风险变量发生了翻天覆地的变化——‘尾部国债拍卖’数量不断增加，股市广度下降，以及美国散户兴趣似乎没有被注意到的难以察觉的变化。全球股市的定位是美国历史上最激进的之一，”达比和他的同事表示。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies research suggests that investors are now expecting that the Federal Reserve, under renominated Chairman Jerome Powell, will hasten the pace of reductions in the central bank's asset purchases, which will lead to tighter financial conditions that could prove unfavorable to risky assets. Goldman Sachs sees the Fed stepping up tapering to $30 billion a month from a reduction of $15 billion, and estimates three policy interest rate increases in 2022, up from two.</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies research表示，投资者现在预计，在重新提名的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的领导下，美联储将加快缩减央行资产购买的步伐，这将导致金融状况收紧，可能对风险资产不利。高盛预计美联储将从每月减少150亿美元的缩减规模增加到300亿美元，并预计2022年将加息三次，高于两次。</blockquote></p><p> \"Ultimately the Sharpe ratio -- a measure of return per unit of risk -- isturning for global equities. We expect the gap between the performance of risky and safe haven assets to diminish,\" Jefferies wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞写道：“最终，全球股市的夏普比率（衡量单位风险回报的指标）正在发生变化。我们预计风险资产和避险资产表现之间的差距将缩小。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2b6cd6fadb4dd80d04e06539404155\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>via Jefferies</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过杰弗里斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The situation could still prove a buying opportunity for bold investors, however.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于大胆的投资者来说，这种情况仍然可能是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> Strobaek wrote that \"risk assets such as equities are likely to give back some strength, but we would see this as an opportunity in selective and specific areas.\"</p><p><blockquote>Strobaek写道，“股票等风险资产可能会恢复一些实力，但我们认为这是选择性和特定领域的机会。”</blockquote></p><p> \"At this point, we reiterate our assessment from the latest Investment Committee report, i.e. keeping equities at a small overweight in portfolios and government bonds at an underweight,\" the Credit Suisse CIO writes.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席信息官写道：“目前，我们重申投资委员会最新报告中的评估，即将投资组合中的股票保持在较小的跑赢大盘，将政府债券保持在跑输大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at Citigroup also said that \"we would buy into any dip,\" noting that its bearish checklist doesn't indicate significant red flags. \"Valuations look stretched, but other factors (credit spreads, fund flows) are not yet especially extended,\" Citi writes, with 7.5 out of 18 red flags triggered in its measures of global markets while the U.S. is seeing 9.5 of 18.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团分析师还表示，“我们会逢低买入”，并指出其看跌清单并未表明重大危险信号。花旗写道：“估值看起来很高，但其他因素（信用利差、资金流）尚未特别扩大。”在其对全球市场的衡量中，18个危险信号中有7.5个被触发，而美国的危险信号中有9.5个被触发。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4fba734970a8c977a13d6972402b65f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Citi Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>花旗研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in Port Chester, NY says that the end-of-week selling may have resulted in a Black Friday sale for stock-market investors.</p><p><blockquote>纽约州切斯特港AXS Investments首席执行官格雷格·巴苏克(Greg Bassuk)表示，周末的抛售可能导致股市投资者出现黑色星期五抛售。</blockquote></p><p> \"Black Friday is typically the unofficial kick-off to the annual holiday shopping season. But we believe the real shopping is for stocks that are beaten-down from Covid infection spikes, inflation fears, and supply chain woes, but that still possess strong fundamentals that will drive their gains as the economy ultimately reopens,\" he wrote</p><p><blockquote>“黑色星期五通常是一年一度的假日购物季的非正式开始。但我们认为，真正的购物是那些因新冠感染激增、通胀担忧和供应链困境而遭受重创，但仍拥有强劲基本面的股票。随着经济最终重新开放，这将推动他们的上涨，”他写道</blockquote></p><p> That said, some analysts note that the lockdowns playing out in Europe and the spread of COVID, even before the omicron declaration, were reasons to be cautious since they will impact the global growth outlook.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，一些分析师指出，即使在《奥密克戎宣言》发表之前，欧洲的封锁和新冠病毒的传播也是保持谨慎的理由，因为它们将影响全球增长前景。</blockquote></p><p> Either way, it seems that a degree of caveat emptor may be in force next week and could color trading for the remainder of the 2021.</p><p><blockquote>不管怎样，某种程度的买者自负似乎可能会在下周生效，并可能影响2021年剩余时间的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Trading on Monday will help determine whether bullishness persists or if a bearish phase is crystallizing.</p><p><blockquote>周一的交易将有助于确定看涨情绪是否持续，或者看跌阶段是否正在具体化。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a week focused on the state of employment, with the November U.S. jobs report due at the end of the week and Powell and others offering their final thoughts before a media blackout period starting ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of 2021 on Dec. 14-15.</p><p><blockquote>这将是关注就业状况的一周，11月美国就业报告将于本周末发布，鲍威尔和其他人将在联邦公开市场委员会2021年最后一次会议之前开始的媒体封锁期之前发表最终想法12月14日至15日。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-black-friday-carnage-may-mean-for-the-stock-markets-trade-monday-analysts-say-11638021516?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4007":"制药","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4139":"生物科技","ICE":"洲际交易所","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","PFE":"辉瑞",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-black-friday-carnage-may-mean-for-the-stock-markets-trade-monday-analysts-say-11638021516?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2187329491","content_text":"OMG, omicron!\nThe new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.\nWHO said that the omicron variant, which has been detected in Belgium, Israel, and Hong Kong and was first identified in southern parts of Africa, is more transmissible than the delta strain that is currently dominant world-wide, and other variants.\nThe emergence of the new strain led to the White House announcing restrictions, starting on Monday, on travel for non-U.S. citizens and residents from South Africa, as well as from Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi, joining the European Union, the U.K., Singapore and Japan, which also announced similar travel bans.\nThe market selloff during the abbreviated Black Friday session and the commensurate flight to assets that investors hope will perform better amid fresh mobility restrictions, helped to overshadow the usual focus on retail, on a day associated with heavy consumer spending ahead of the Christmas holiday. Friday's downturn also offered a crystal clear reminder that the path of the market and economy hinges on the course of COVID.\nWhat isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do lasting harm to the complexion of the market. Omicron comes at a fragile time for optimistic investors, with bears pointing to lofty stock market valuations, inflation worries and global economic growth concerns as reasons to expect a drawdown in equities that have managed to avoid a decline from a peak of more than 5%.\nIn theory, Friday's post-Thanksgiving environment is traditionally lightly traded and therefore more susceptible to outsize price swings.\nThe Nasdaq saw its lowest volume of the year on Black Friday, with 3.479 billion shares trading hands, well below the year-to-date average of 5.099 billion. The total composite volume, including trading on Intercontinental Exchange -owned NYSE platforms, was 8.760 billion, compared with an year-to-date average of 11.196 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nStill, only time will tell whether the reaction to omicron is a textbook, knee-jerk selloff or something more sinister.\nMarketWatch's Bill Watts wrote, citing Friday research from Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, that the next level of support to watch for the S&P 500 after closing at 4,594,62 on Friday is at 4,570, the 50-day exponential average; 4,566, the 38.2% retracement of the rally; and 4,550, a previous high from early September.\n\"It is too early to know to what extent the new variant will affect economies and markets, and Friday's market moves have probably been exacerbated by reduced liquidity owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the risk that further bad news emerges over the weekend,\" writes Jonas Goltermann senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday research note.\nJ.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog writes that things could get dicey if the S&P 500 is driven below 4,500, with little support beneath that point.\n\"You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&P 500, nothing good happens below 4500,\" he writes in a Friday blog.\nAll Star Charts\n\"If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted,\" Parets writes.\nSome analysts say that there are legitimate reasons for unease, on the public health front.\n\"The fact that this variant seems to be spreading much faster than previous versions (including the Delta variant) bears very careful monitoring,\" wrote Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, in a research note. There are some questions about the effectiveness of existing COVID vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna due to the number of mutations that the omicron variant bears on the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus targeted by COVID-19 vaccines.\nAnalyst at Jefferies led by analyst Sean Darby note that risk-appetite was already edging lower before Black Friday and the selloff may have been a \"tipping point\" in favor of caution and risk moderation.\n\"The news of a new or not so new COVID variant spreading in Southern Africaappears to have been the tipping point in altering risk appetite in the past 24 hours,\" the Jefferies analyst wrote.\n\"However, there has been a sea change in risk variables over the past month -- anincreasing number of 'tailed treasury auctions', declining equity market breadth andthe imperceptible change in US retail appetite that seems to have gone unnoticed.Positioning in global equities is one of the most aggressive in US history,\" according to Darby and his colleagues.\nJefferies research suggests that investors are now expecting that the Federal Reserve, under renominated Chairman Jerome Powell, will hasten the pace of reductions in the central bank's asset purchases, which will lead to tighter financial conditions that could prove unfavorable to risky assets. Goldman Sachs sees the Fed stepping up tapering to $30 billion a month from a reduction of $15 billion, and estimates three policy interest rate increases in 2022, up from two.\n\"Ultimately the Sharpe ratio -- a measure of return per unit of risk -- isturning for global equities. We expect the gap between the performance of risky and safe haven assets to diminish,\" Jefferies wrote.\nvia Jefferies\nThe situation could still prove a buying opportunity for bold investors, however.\nStrobaek wrote that \"risk assets such as equities are likely to give back some strength, but we would see this as an opportunity in selective and specific areas.\"\n\"At this point, we reiterate our assessment from the latest Investment Committee report, i.e. keeping equities at a small overweight in portfolios and government bonds at an underweight,\" the Credit Suisse CIO writes.\nAnalysts at Citigroup also said that \"we would buy into any dip,\" noting that its bearish checklist doesn't indicate significant red flags. \"Valuations look stretched, but other factors (credit spreads, fund flows) are not yet especially extended,\" Citi writes, with 7.5 out of 18 red flags triggered in its measures of global markets while the U.S. is seeing 9.5 of 18.\nCiti Research\nGreg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in Port Chester, NY says that the end-of-week selling may have resulted in a Black Friday sale for stock-market investors.\n\"Black Friday is typically the unofficial kick-off to the annual holiday shopping season. But we believe the real shopping is for stocks that are beaten-down from Covid infection spikes, inflation fears, and supply chain woes, but that still possess strong fundamentals that will drive their gains as the economy ultimately reopens,\" he wrote\nThat said, some analysts note that the lockdowns playing out in Europe and the spread of COVID, even before the omicron declaration, were reasons to be cautious since they will impact the global growth outlook.\nEither way, it seems that a degree of caveat emptor may be in force next week and could color trading for the remainder of the 2021.\nTrading on Monday will help determine whether bullishness persists or if a bearish phase is crystallizing.\nIt will be a week focused on the state of employment, with the November U.S. jobs report due at the end of the week and Powell and others offering their final thoughts before a media blackout period starting ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of 2021 on Dec. 14-15.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9,"ICE":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"END":0.9,"PFE":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":815383811,"gmtCreate":1630644161633,"gmtModify":1631890506209,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815383811","repostId":"2164829818","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830399474,"gmtCreate":1629007658298,"gmtModify":1633687984851,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830399474","repostId":"1127633167","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127633167","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628997765,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127633167?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 11:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这10只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127633167","media":"Barrons","summary":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors loo","content":"<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资界最流行的流行语之一是“复合者”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike或Visa的成长型投资者寻求寻找能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长（最好是两者兼而有之）的公司。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock&nbsp;that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股价应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在五到十年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的“10 bagger”——一只回报率是你购买价格10倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的报告和投资专业人士的客户信函中充满了compounder的参考资料。许多下一代价值管理者，在<i>巴伦周刊</i>五月的封面故事，正在寻找这样的股票，而不是传统的廉价股票的价值票价。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高昂的价格。真正的大赢家很少。Durable Capital Partners的数据显示，在一系列10年期间，只有约35家公司的股价每年复合增长率达到20%或以上，导致股价至少上涨了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as&nbsp;Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and&nbsp;Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意继续投资大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦周刊</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，并列出了一份包含10只股票的折衷清单，其中大多数股票的市值低于100亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的10只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th>Company / Ticker</th>    <th>Recent Price</th>    <th>YTD Change</th>    <th>2021E P/E</th>    <th>2021E Price/Sales</th>    <th>2022E P/E</th>    <th>2022E Price/Sales</th>    <th>LT Growth Rate*</th>    <th>Market Value (bil)</th>    <th>Comment</th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Amedysis / AMED</td>    <td>$185.15</td>    <td>-37%</td>    <td>30.2</td>    <td>2.7</td>    <td>27.7</td>    <td>2.4</td>    <td>10.5%</td>    <td>$6.3</td>    <td>Leader in home health care</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amyris / AMRS</td>    <td>13.64</td>    <td>121</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>10.4</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>9.7</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>4.1</td>    <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td>    <td>81.73</td>    <td>-6</td>    <td>19.4</td>    <td>1.3</td>    <td>17.7</td>    <td>1.2</td>    <td>8.6</td>    <td>11.0</td>    <td>Defense-department consultant</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td>    <td>172.76</td>    <td>26</td>    <td>25.8</td>    <td>1.5</td>    <td>22.2</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>18.4</td>    <td>18.2</td>    <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td>    <td>147.15</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>40.9</td>    <td>1.6</td>    <td>15.7</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>6.3</td>    <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td>    <td>197.10</td>    <td>24</td>    <td>45.7</td>    <td>2.6</td>    <td>43.5</td>    <td>2.5</td>    <td>19.3</td>    <td>8.8</td>    <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td>    <td>138.19</td>    <td>74</td>    <td>192.3</td>    <td>28.6</td>    <td>140.8</td>    <td>22.5</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>6.6</td>    <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td>    <td>44.38</td>    <td>-24</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>1.9</td>    <td>1890.3</td>    <td>1.7</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>4.8</td>    <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Trex / TREX</td>    <td>105.94</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>51.9</td>    <td>10.5</td>    <td>43.6</td>    <td>9.3</td>    <td>18.8</td>    <td>12.2</td>    <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Upwork / UPWK</td>    <td>44.31</td>    <td>28</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>11.4</td>    <td>556.8</td>    <td>9.2</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>5.7</td>    <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年预计市盈率</th><th>2021E价格/销售额</th><th>2022年预计市盈率</th><th>2022E价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Amedysis/AMED</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>Amyris/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>NM</td><td>10.4</td><td>NM</td><td>9.7</td><td>NA</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领域的领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦控股/BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B.亨特运输服务/JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>多式联运货运实力强劲</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>NA</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/站点</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>园林绿化用品大供应商</td></tr><tr><td>Staar外科/STAA</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/SFIX</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>NM</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动的订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex/Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>顶级合成木地板制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork/UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>NM</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>NA</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH预估适用于截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX预估为截至2022年7月和2023年7月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的年度每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys(AMED)是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚小盘成长基金经理丹·科尔预测，“该行业将会出现大规模整合”。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移。”</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys的股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍多。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，下调了2021年财务指引，股价约为185美元，下跌了近30%。2021年盈利预期目前为每股6.13美元，低于近7美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍有能力实现每股收益10%的年增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris(AMRS)是合成生物学领域的领导者。它的粉丝们说，它的机会是以一种环保的方式取代一系列现在由石化产品、动物和植物制成的产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗生产角鲨烷等产品，这是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；和通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为13美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦周刊</i>7月份对该公司进行了好评。Amyris预计，在其消费品牌的推动下，到2025年销售额将达到20亿美元，高于今年预计的4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>拥有Amyris股票的Pinnacle Associates的投资组合经理兰迪·巴伦(Randy Baron)表示：“世界需要清洁化学，而Amyris是创造清洁化学的关键。”他认为到2022年底它们可能会达到75美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府最近一财年的收入占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务与政府建立了牢固的关系。其股价约为81美元，收益率为1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>T.Rowe Price New Horizons基金经理乔什·斯宾塞(Josh Spencer)表示：“它建立了强大的、类似伙伴关系的文化，并拥有长期稳定增长的记录。”他认为博思艾伦有能力实现9%至10%的收入年增长率和15%至16%的盈利年增长率，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支更加克制，该股较100美元的峰值下跌了20%。斯宾塞将回调视为买入机会，该股的市盈率不到20倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the&nbsp;Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B.亨特运输服务公司(JBHT)是多式联运货运领域的领导者，该领域涉及卡车在铁路线上的省油运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。其股价在过去20年中上涨了30倍，最近达到173美元。“它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权，”Durable Capital Partners首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利·埃伦博根(Henry Ellenbogen)表示。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B.他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司的关系使其在多式联运货运领域拥有强大的地位。J.B.亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还参与数字货运经纪业务——为卡车司机和航运客户牵线搭桥。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen表示，考虑到盈利年增长率为十几岁左右，该股2022年预计利润的22倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有700,000名业主，拥有富有弹性的商业模式，从费用中获得可观的收入，并且比同行更多地接触夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>Baron Focused Growth基金经理David Baron表示：“它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。”他补充道，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为145美元，应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>Baron认为，根据2022年的预测，该股的自由现金流收益率为11%，价格低廉。他表示，该股自2018年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能为股东带来20%的年回报率。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE)是该国最大的景观美化产品供应商，鉴于其在高度分散的行业中仅占13%的市场份额，因此有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚大学的科尔表示：“它正在有机增长，并且有很多收购机会。”他认为该公司的年收入有能力增长10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股股价约为197美元，估值很高，交易价格是2022年预计每股收益4.54美元的43倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar外科公司（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于全球视力问题的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，这款镜片已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>Baillie Gifford全球经理道格·布罗迪(Doug Brodie)表示：“它的销量可能会很大。它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。”</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼的晶状体可以在不到一个小时内植入，而且不需要移除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar股价最近为138美元，其估值超过2022年预计销售额的20倍，是2022年预计收益的140倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix(SFIX)开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“这可能是未来的诺德斯特龙，”Stitch Fix持有者Marathon Partners Equity Management首席投资官马里奥·西贝利(Mario Cibelli)表示。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题。”Stitch Fix利用6000名个人造型师和大量数据，试图确定订户的品味，以产生高满意度，并限制每隔一段时间发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者对潜在客户流失和业务最终盈利能力的担忧，其股价约为44美元，较今年早些时候的水平下跌了60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli预计收入每年将增长20%以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内业务可能会非常有利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex(TREX)是甲板高端木材替代品的顶级生产商，其95%来自回收材料，使其成为一种环保的住房。该股股价为105美元，是2022年预计市盈率的43倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T.Rowe Price的Spencer认为Trex物有所值，因为他认为它可以产生15%至20%的可持续年收入增长。预计2022年盈利将增长约20%，并在接下来的几年中以类似的速度增长。“如果你把时间拨快三年，它看起来并没有那么贵，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork(UPWK)是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到Baillie Gifford的Brodie的青睐，他表示，它可以让企业更好地接受自由职业者。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>该股最近约为44美元，并不便宜。Upwork的估值为57亿美元，是今年预计销售额近5亿美元的10倍以上。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于快速销售增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长30%以上，2022年将增长25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“自由职业者更容易被中小型企业接受，但大型企业的人力资源部门却不喜欢他们，”布罗迪说。Upwork旨在通过审查自由职业者和提供数千种技能来改变这种看法。“Upwork可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这10只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这10只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 11:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资界最流行的流行语之一是“复合者”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike或Visa的成长型投资者寻求寻找能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长（最好是两者兼而有之）的公司。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock&nbsp;that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股价应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在五到十年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的“10 bagger”——一只回报率是你购买价格10倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的报告和投资专业人士的客户信函中充满了compounder的参考资料。许多下一代价值管理者，在<i>巴伦周刊</i>五月的封面故事，正在寻找这样的股票，而不是传统的廉价股票的价值票价。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高昂的价格。真正的大赢家很少。Durable Capital Partners的数据显示，在一系列10年期间，只有约35家公司的股价每年复合增长率达到20%或以上，导致股价至少上涨了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as&nbsp;Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and&nbsp;Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意继续投资大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦周刊</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，并列出了一份包含10只股票的折衷清单，其中大多数股票的市值低于100亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的10只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th>Company / Ticker</th>    <th>Recent Price</th>    <th>YTD Change</th>    <th>2021E P/E</th>    <th>2021E Price/Sales</th>    <th>2022E P/E</th>    <th>2022E Price/Sales</th>    <th>LT Growth Rate*</th>    <th>Market Value (bil)</th>    <th>Comment</th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Amedysis / AMED</td>    <td>$185.15</td>    <td>-37%</td>    <td>30.2</td>    <td>2.7</td>    <td>27.7</td>    <td>2.4</td>    <td>10.5%</td>    <td>$6.3</td>    <td>Leader in home health care</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amyris / AMRS</td>    <td>13.64</td>    <td>121</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>10.4</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>9.7</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>4.1</td>    <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td>    <td>81.73</td>    <td>-6</td>    <td>19.4</td>    <td>1.3</td>    <td>17.7</td>    <td>1.2</td>    <td>8.6</td>    <td>11.0</td>    <td>Defense-department consultant</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td>    <td>172.76</td>    <td>26</td>    <td>25.8</td>    <td>1.5</td>    <td>22.2</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>18.4</td>    <td>18.2</td>    <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td>    <td>147.15</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>40.9</td>    <td>1.6</td>    <td>15.7</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>6.3</td>    <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td>    <td>197.10</td>    <td>24</td>    <td>45.7</td>    <td>2.6</td>    <td>43.5</td>    <td>2.5</td>    <td>19.3</td>    <td>8.8</td>    <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td>    <td>138.19</td>    <td>74</td>    <td>192.3</td>    <td>28.6</td>    <td>140.8</td>    <td>22.5</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>6.6</td>    <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td>    <td>44.38</td>    <td>-24</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>1.9</td>    <td>1890.3</td>    <td>1.7</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>4.8</td>    <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Trex / TREX</td>    <td>105.94</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>51.9</td>    <td>10.5</td>    <td>43.6</td>    <td>9.3</td>    <td>18.8</td>    <td>12.2</td>    <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Upwork / UPWK</td>    <td>44.31</td>    <td>28</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>11.4</td>    <td>556.8</td>    <td>9.2</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>5.7</td>    <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年预计市盈率</th><th>2021E价格/销售额</th><th>2022年预计市盈率</th><th>2022E价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Amedysis/AMED</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>Amyris/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>NM</td><td>10.4</td><td>NM</td><td>9.7</td><td>NA</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领域的领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦控股/BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B.亨特运输服务/JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>多式联运货运实力强劲</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>NA</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/站点</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>园林绿化用品大供应商</td></tr><tr><td>Staar外科/STAA</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/SFIX</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>NM</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动的订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex/Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>顶级合成木地板制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork/UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>NM</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>NA</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH预估适用于截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX预估为截至2022年7月和2023年7月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的年度每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys(AMED)是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚小盘成长基金经理丹·科尔预测，“该行业将会出现大规模整合”。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移。”</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys的股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍多。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，下调了2021年财务指引，股价约为185美元，下跌了近30%。2021年盈利预期目前为每股6.13美元，低于近7美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍有能力实现每股收益10%的年增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris(AMRS)是合成生物学领域的领导者。它的粉丝们说，它的机会是以一种环保的方式取代一系列现在由石化产品、动物和植物制成的产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗生产角鲨烷等产品，这是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；和通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为13美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦周刊</i>7月份对该公司进行了好评。Amyris预计，在其消费品牌的推动下，到2025年销售额将达到20亿美元，高于今年预计的4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>拥有Amyris股票的Pinnacle Associates的投资组合经理兰迪·巴伦(Randy Baron)表示：“世界需要清洁化学，而Amyris是创造清洁化学的关键。”他认为到2022年底它们可能会达到75美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府最近一财年的收入占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务与政府建立了牢固的关系。其股价约为81美元，收益率为1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>T.Rowe Price New Horizons基金经理乔什·斯宾塞(Josh Spencer)表示：“它建立了强大的、类似伙伴关系的文化，并拥有长期稳定增长的记录。”他认为博思艾伦有能力实现9%至10%的收入年增长率和15%至16%的盈利年增长率，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支更加克制，该股较100美元的峰值下跌了20%。斯宾塞将回调视为买入机会，该股的市盈率不到20倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the&nbsp;Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B.亨特运输服务公司(JBHT)是多式联运货运领域的领导者，该领域涉及卡车在铁路线上的省油运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。其股价在过去20年中上涨了30倍，最近达到173美元。“它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权，”Durable Capital Partners首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利·埃伦博根(Henry Ellenbogen)表示。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B.他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司的关系使其在多式联运货运领域拥有强大的地位。J.B.亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还参与数字货运经纪业务——为卡车司机和航运客户牵线搭桥。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen表示，考虑到盈利年增长率为十几岁左右，该股2022年预计利润的22倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有700,000名业主，拥有富有弹性的商业模式，从费用中获得可观的收入，并且比同行更多地接触夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>Baron Focused Growth基金经理David Baron表示：“它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。”他补充道，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为145美元，应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>Baron认为，根据2022年的预测，该股的自由现金流收益率为11%，价格低廉。他表示，该股自2018年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能为股东带来20%的年回报率。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE)是该国最大的景观美化产品供应商，鉴于其在高度分散的行业中仅占13%的市场份额，因此有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚大学的科尔表示：“它正在有机增长，并且有很多收购机会。”他认为该公司的年收入有能力增长10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股股价约为197美元，估值很高，交易价格是2022年预计每股收益4.54美元的43倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar外科公司（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于全球视力问题的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，这款镜片已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>Baillie Gifford全球经理道格·布罗迪(Doug Brodie)表示：“它的销量可能会很大。它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。”</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼的晶状体可以在不到一个小时内植入，而且不需要移除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar股价最近为138美元，其估值超过2022年预计销售额的20倍，是2022年预计收益的140倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix(SFIX)开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“这可能是未来的诺德斯特龙，”Stitch Fix持有者Marathon Partners Equity Management首席投资官马里奥·西贝利(Mario Cibelli)表示。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题。”Stitch Fix利用6000名个人造型师和大量数据，试图确定订户的品味，以产生高满意度，并限制每隔一段时间发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者对潜在客户流失和业务最终盈利能力的担忧，其股价约为44美元，较今年早些时候的水平下跌了60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli预计收入每年将增长20%以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内业务可能会非常有利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex(TREX)是甲板高端木材替代品的顶级生产商，其95%来自回收材料，使其成为一种环保的住房。该股股价为105美元，是2022年预计市盈率的43倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T.Rowe Price的Spencer认为Trex物有所值，因为他认为它可以产生15%至20%的可持续年收入增长。预计2022年盈利将增长约20%，并在接下来的几年中以类似的速度增长。“如果你把时间拨快三年，它看起来并没有那么贵，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork(UPWK)是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到Baillie Gifford的Brodie的青睐，他表示，它可以让企业更好地接受自由职业者。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>该股最近约为44美元，并不便宜。Upwork的估值为57亿美元，是今年预计销售额近5亿美元的10倍以上。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于快速销售增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长30%以上，2022年将增长25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“自由职业者更容易被中小型企业接受，但大型企业的人力资源部门却不喜欢他们，”布罗迪说。Upwork旨在通过审查自由职业者和提供数千种技能来改变这种看法。“Upwork可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMRS":"阿米瑞斯","SITE":"SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.","JBHT":"JB Hunt运输服务","BAH":"博思艾伦咨询公司","UPWK":"Upwork Inc.","VAC":"万豪度假环球","STAA":"STAAR Surgical Company","SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc.","TREX":"Trex Co Inc","AMED":"阿米斯医疗"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127633167","content_text":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.\nThe idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock that returns 10 times what you paid for it.\nWall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified in a Barron’s cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.\nTheir search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.\nMany investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and Eli Lilly(LLY).\nBarron’s sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:\nStrong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.\n\n\n\nCompany / Ticker\nRecent Price\nYTD Change\n2021E P/E\n2021E Price/Sales\n2022E P/E\n2022E Price/Sales\nLT Growth Rate*\nMarket Value (bil)\nComment\n\n\n\n\nAmedysis / AMED\n$185.15\n-37%\n30.2\n2.7\n27.7\n2.4\n10.5%\n$6.3\nLeader in home health care\n\n\nAmyris / AMRS\n13.64\n121\nNM\n10.4\nNM\n9.7\nNA\n4.1\nLeading company in synthetic biology\n\n\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH\n81.73\n-6\n19.4\n1.3\n17.7\n1.2\n8.6\n11.0\nDefense-department consultant\n\n\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT\n172.76\n26\n25.8\n1.5\n22.2\n1.4\n18.4\n18.2\nStrong in intermodal freight\n\n\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC\n147.15\n7\n40.9\n1.6\n15.7\n1.4\nNA\n6.3\nTop company in vacation timeshares\n\n\nSiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE\n197.10\n24\n45.7\n2.6\n43.5\n2.5\n19.3\n8.8\nBig supplier of landscaping supplies\n\n\nStaar Surgical / STAA\n138.19\n74\n192.3\n28.6\n140.8\n22.5\n30.0\n6.6\nMaker of implantable lens for myopia\n\n\nStitch Fix / SFIX\n44.38\n-24\nNM\n1.9\n1890.3\n1.7\n30.0\n4.8\nData-driven subscription clothing firm\n\n\nTrex / TREX\n105.94\n27\n51.9\n10.5\n43.6\n9.3\n18.8\n12.2\nTop maker of synthetic wood decking\n\n\nUpwork / UPWK\n44.31\n28\nNM\n11.4\n556.8\n9.2\nNA\n5.7\nOnline clearinghouse for free-lancers\n\n\n\nE=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.\nSource: FactSet\nAmedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.\n“There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”\nAmedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.\nAmyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.\nUsing genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.\nBarron’s wrote favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.\n“The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.\n“It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the Barron’s Roundtable.\nJ.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.\nEllenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.\n“It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.\nThe shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.\nSiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.\n\n“It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.\nThe stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.\nStaar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.\n“It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”\nLenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.\nAt a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.\nStitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.\n“This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.\nIts shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.\nYet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.\nTrex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.\nT. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.\nUpwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.\nThe shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.\nThe investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.\n“Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he 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