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2021-07-17

Wow

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2021-07-11

[Strong]

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2021-06-20

Hmm.. to be observed [Observation]

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2021-06-15

Yes, will go for Apple for sure

Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股还是苹果，我每次都选苹果</blockquote>

2021-08-27

Go Cathie! [Bless] [Victory]

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2021-08-04

Nice run

What Is Fueling The AMD Rally?<blockquote>是什么推动了AMD的反弹？</blockquote>

2021-07-31

It would be an incredible merger if it happens

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2021-06-13

Fly him and Amazon share price to the moon [Cool]

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2021-05-21

Interesting read

Apple Stock: How Long Should You Hold It?<blockquote>苹果股票：你应该持有多久？</blockquote>

2021-03-18

Privacy has become a valuable commodity

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2021-07-26

[Cool]

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2021-06-07

Good

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2021-04-10

Good read

Why Semiconductors Are As Scarce As Gold<blockquote>为什么半导体像黄金一样稀缺</blockquote>

2021-07-11

Choices to make when wear and tear sets in

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2021-06-19

What goes down, let’s hope for the chance to rise up again especially for good companies [Bless]

Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote>

2021-05-25

More choices for consumers [Wow]

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2021-05-20

Both also like![Miser]

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2021-04-19

Apple event! [Strong]

Stocks To Watch: Apple Event, Disney Callout And Earnings Blitz<blockquote>值得关注的股票：苹果活动、迪士尼预告和盈利闪电战</blockquote>

2021-01-31

[暗中观察] [美金]

2021-09-09

Both also good companies[Victory]

Amazon Vs. Microsoft: Two Cloud Computing Giants, One Winning Stock<blockquote>亚马逊Vs.微软：两大云计算巨头，一只胜出股</blockquote>

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Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? 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Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":889575462,"gmtCreate":1631164030256,"gmtModify":1631890264834,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Both also good companies[Victory]&nbsp;","listText":"Both also good companies[Victory]&nbsp;","text":"Both also good companies[Victory]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889575462","repostId":"1127517147","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127517147","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631158589,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127517147?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 11:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Vs. Microsoft: Two Cloud Computing Giants, One Winning Stock<blockquote>亚马逊Vs.微软：两大云计算巨头，一只胜出股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127517147","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure ser","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Microsoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure services market. However, Amazon's AWS remains in the No.1 position.</li>  <li>Although the cloud wars are heating up, both Azure and AWS are performing exceptionally, growing at 51% y/y and 37% y/y, respectively.</li>  <li>The global cloud services market is poised to grow at a CAGR of ~15.8% until 2030 to become a $1.6T market. Therefore, cloud providers still have a long growth runway.</li>  <li>In this article, I share a comparative financial analysis for Microsoft and Amazon to determine the better buy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69eeb847ac2a68d9068ee3d90ae2ec5c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软的Azure继续在蓬勃发展的云基础设施服务市场中获得市场份额。然而，亚马逊的AWS仍然保持在第一的位置。</li><li>尽管云战争正在升温，但Azure和AWS的表现都非常出色，分别同比增长51%和37%。</li><li>到2030年，全球云服务市场将以约15.8%的复合年增长率增长，成为一个价值1.6 T美元的市场。因此，云提供商还有很长的增长跑道。</li><li>在这篇文章中，我分享了微软和亚马逊的比较财务分析，以确定更好的购买方式。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>奇普·索莫德维拉/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are competing for the coveted No.1 spot in the cloud infrastructure services market, which is projected to grow from $325B in 2021 to $1,620B (or $1.6T) by 2030, according to areportby Allied Market Research. In Q2, Amazon's AWS revenues grew at 37% year-over-year (marked acceleration) as it continues to lead the cloud infrastructure services market with a 31% market share. However, Microsoft's Azure is outpacing AWS's growth and now commands a market share of 22%.</p><p><blockquote>微软(MSFT)和亚马逊(AMZN)正在争夺云基础设施服务市场令人垂涎的第一名位置，根据Allied Market的报告，预计到2030年，该市场将从2021年的$325B增长到$1,620B（或$1.6 T）研究。第二季度，亚马逊的AWS收入同比增长37%（显着加速），继续以31%的市场份额引领云基础设施服务市场。然而，微软的Azure正在超过AWS的增长，目前占据22%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b929cfb3eb06a50b14a942b980bd8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: canalys.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：canalys.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the last year or so, the coronavirus pandemic has led to increased cloud infrastructure services spending as workload migration and cloud-native application development accelerated. Naturally, Azure and AWS have emerged as prime beneficiaries of this transformational shift toward the cloud. Although the coronavirus pandemic has receded in previous months, businesses have continued to embrace the cloud, as evidenced by the $5B sequential (q/q) growth in cloud infrastructure services spending in Q2 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在过去一年左右的时间里，随着工作负载迁移和云原生应用程序开发的加速，冠状病毒疫情导致云基础设施服务支出增加。自然，Azure和AWS已经成为这种向云转型的主要受益者。尽管冠状病毒疫情在前几个月已经消退，但企业仍在继续拥抱云，2021年Q2云基础设施服务支出环比增长50亿美元就证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab77f327d4b4f980b703dd05a727a8fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: canalys.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：canalys.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Both Microsoft and Amazon are well-diversified big tech giants. However, the cloud opportunity is critical to their future successes. Today, Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud business makes up nearly ~37% of total revenues and ~40% of Microsoft's operating income, and these figures are expected to grow even further in the coming years. In relation to Amazon, AWS's revenues are a small fraction (13% in Q2 2021) of total sales. However, AWS contributes the majority of Amazon's operating income (~60%). And so, I'm not surprised with how ugly this battle is turning out to be. In recent times, we have witnessed dramatic instances such as&nbsp;Amazon's lawsuit&nbsp;for the $10B Jedi contract being awarded to Microsoft,Microsoft's protest&nbsp;to Government Accountability Office in relation to the $10B NSA contract awarded to Amazon, and a top AWS executive - Charlie Bell (once expected to be a successor to Andy Jassy as AWS CEO) -moving over to Microsoft. The competition between Amazon and Microsoft is fearsome. However, I can see ample room for multiple winners in the cloud services market.</p><p><blockquote>微软和亚马逊都是多元化的大型科技巨头。然而，云机遇对他们未来的成功至关重要。如今，微软的智能云业务占总收入的近37%，占微软营业收入的约40%，预计这些数字在未来几年将进一步增长。与亚马逊相比，AWS的收入仅占总销售额的一小部分（2021年第二季度为13%）。然而，AWS贡献了亚马逊的大部分营业收入（约60%）。所以，我对这场战斗变得如此丑陋并不感到惊讶。最近，我们目睹了一些戏剧性的事件，如亚马逊就授予微软的100亿美元Jedi合同提起诉讼，微软就授予亚马逊的100亿美元NSA合同向政府问责办公室提出抗议，以及AWS高管Charlie Bell（曾有望接替Andy Jassy担任AWS首席执行官）搬到微软。亚马逊和微软之间的竞争是可怕的。然而，我可以看到云服务市场有足够的空间容纳多个赢家。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7fd2cfae285856cb75e5ced740ef320\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Allied Market Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：联合市场研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With massive cloud services growth on the horizon, I expect both Microsoft and Amazon to deliver double-digit revenue growth over the coming decade. Several analysts have projected the cloud services business to become a commodity. However, profitability metrics for AWS and Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud show that it's clearly not a commodity business (at least for now). Azure has been gaining ground on AWS, but it's too soon to tell which of these tech titans will lead the cloud services market over the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>随着云服务的大规模增长，我预计微软和亚马逊在未来十年都将实现两位数的收入增长。一些分析师预计云服务业务将成为一种商品。然而，AWS和微软智能云的盈利指标显示，它显然不是一项商品业务（至少目前如此）。Azure一直在AWS上取得进展，但现在判断这些科技巨头中哪一家将在未来几年引领云服务市场还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last 12 months, Microsoft has significantly outperformed Amazon in terms of creating shareholder wealth, as can be observed in the chart below. I attribute Microsoft's outperformance to a multitude of factors, including but not limited to stronger momentum in the cloud, the existence of a massive capital return program, and robust free cash flow generation.</p><p><blockquote>在过去12个月中，微软在创造股东财富方面的表现明显优于亚马逊，如下图所示。我将微软的优异表现归因于多种因素，包括但不限于云计算的强劲势头、大规模资本回报计划的存在以及强劲的自由现金流生成。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a47beb283bcc911ba9ad25c4c2c01f91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In today's article, I will share a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon. Furthermore, we will estimate the fair value and expected returns for both of these blue-chip companies based on the financial statement analysis conducted in this note.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的文章中，我将分享一个比较财务分析，以确定微软和亚马逊之间更好的购买方式。此外，我们将根据本附注中进行的财务报表分析估计这两家蓝筹公司的公允价值和预期回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Comparative Financial Analysis: Microsoft vs. Amazon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比较财务分析：微软与亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> I think it's too early to call the cloud services market, and the winners will only be evident in due time. However, it's very likely that Amazon and Microsoft will be dominating this market in 2031. Now, Amazon and Microsoft may be competitors in the cloud, but they happen to be two very different companies with varied core competencies: Amazon - e-commerce, Microsoft - business, and consumer software. Let's carry out a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>我认为现在看涨期权云服务市场还为时过早，赢家只有在适当的时候才会显现出来。然而，亚马逊和微软很可能会在2031年主导这个市场。现在，亚马逊和微软可能是云领域的竞争对手，但它们恰好是两家截然不同的公司，拥有不同的核心竞争力：亚马逊——电子商务、微软——商业和消费软件。让我们进行一个比较财务分析，以确定微软和亚马逊之间更好的购买方式。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d675b34f8dc1b88db5722fa7be591b9f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In essence, Microsoft is a high-margin software and services business, while Amazon is a low-margin retail business with some higher-margin business lines such as AWS and Advertising. Since both Amazon and Microsoft are over-covered stocks, I don't think discussing their revenue mix would be of much value. However, let's look at the free cash flow generation of these blue-chip giants to understand their current business momentum.</p><p><blockquote>本质上，微软是一个高利润的软件和服务业务，而亚马逊是一个低利润的零售业务，拥有一些更高利润的业务线，如AWS和广告。由于亚马逊和微软都是被过度覆盖的股票，我认为讨论它们的收入组合没有多大价值。然而，让我们看看这些蓝筹巨头的自由现金流生成情况，以了解他们目前的业务势头。</blockquote></p><p> After receiving a massive pandemic boost, Amazon's free cash flows have turned negative in the last two quarters as the company invests massive amounts of capital (capex spending) in driving future revenue growth. In Q2, Amazon missed revenue estimates by ~$2B, which is further evidence of Amazon losing business momentum. On the other hand, Microsoft's business momentum remained strong in Q2 as the company beat revenue expectations by ~$2B while generating record amounts of free cash flow over the last 12 months. Therefore, it's fair to say that Microsoft is outperforming Amazon for the time being.</p><p><blockquote>在受到大流行的巨大提振后，亚马逊的自由现金流在过去两个季度转为负值，因为该公司投入了大量资本（capex支出）来推动未来的收入增长。第二季度，亚马逊的收入低于预期约20亿美元，这进一步证明亚马逊正在失去业务动力。另一方面，微软第二季度的业务势头依然强劲，该公司的收入超出预期约20亿美元，同时在过去12个月内产生了创纪录的自由现金流。因此，可以公平地说，微软的表现暂时优于亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed96043009b5528ed09d4e736d1833d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the end of Q2, Microsoft had nearly $130B of cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet vs. financial debt of $58B (down from ~$90B debt in Dec'17). Over the last five years, Amazon's cash reserves have been building up, which now stand at ~$90B. However, the e-commerce giant has been increasing its debt load too, which has grown to $50B in Q2 2021.</p><p><blockquote>截至第二季度末，微软的资产负债表上有近130B美元的现金和短期投资，而金融债务为58B美元（低于17年12月的约90B美元债务）。在过去的五年里，亚马逊的现金储备一直在增加，目前约为90B美元。然而，这家电子商务巨头的债务负担也在增加，2021年第二季度已增至500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f8f27effc87360acc99c52dadd22af3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of balance sheet strength, Microsoft is clearly in a better position compared to Amazon. Moreover, Microsoft's free cash flow generation is superior to Amazon right now. As you can see below, Microsoft is using its financial strength to execute a massive capital return program that consists of stock buybacks and dividends. Although Amazon lacks a capital return program today, it's only a matter of time before Amazon boasts one of the largest capital return programs among big tech companies. Therefore, Microsoft's advantage in this department may be short lived.</p><p><blockquote>就资产负债表实力而言，与亚马逊相比，微软显然处于更有利的地位。此外，微软目前的自由现金流生成量优于亚马逊。如下图所示，微软正在利用其财务实力执行一项大规模资本回报计划，其中包括股票回购和股息。尽管亚马逊目前缺乏资本回报计划，但亚马逊拥有大型科技公司中最大的资本回报计划之一只是时间问题。因此，微软在这一部门的优势可能是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef388b2cab13ed222ddf2ba53ad6067f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While Microsoft returns the majority of its operational cash flows back to shareholders, Amazon is investing billions of dollars to drive future revenue (and, by extension, free cash flow) growth. In my opinion, Amazon will continue to outpace Microsoft's revenue growth over the next decade. As Amazon's faster-growing, higher-margin business lines, AWS and Advertising, contribute a larger share of Amazon's revenues over the coming years, its margins are expected to head higher. Hence, Amazon possesses the greater potential for revenue growth and margin expansion compared to Microsoft. To learn more about AWS and Amazon's Ads business, you may read the following notes:</p><p><blockquote>虽然微软将大部分运营现金流返还给股东，但亚马逊正在投资数十亿美元来推动未来收入（以及自由现金流）的增长。在我看来，未来十年，亚马逊的收入增长将继续超过微软。随着亚马逊增长更快、利润率更高的业务线AWS和广告在未来几年为亚马逊的收入贡献了更大的份额，预计其利润率将会上升。因此，与微软相比，亚马逊拥有更大的收入增长和利润率扩张潜力。要了解有关AWS和亚马逊广告业务的更多信息，您可以阅读以下说明：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Amazon Web Services -&nbsp;Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring</li>  <li>Digital Ads -&nbsp;Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e9ff96d611913db9e45fbff0cc34ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊网络服务-亚马逊：以下是您应该监控的内容</li><li>数字广告-亚马逊：“其他”细分市场的价值可能超过AWS</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Although Amazon appears to be more expensive than Microsoft based on backward-looking trading multiples such as Price-to-Earnings and Price-to-FCF ratios, it's relatively cheaper than Microsoft when we factor in future growth as indicated by the PEG ratios.</p><p><blockquote>尽管根据市盈率和市盈率与自由现金流比率等回顾性交易倍数，亚马逊似乎比微软贵，但当我们考虑到PEG比率所表明的未来增长时，亚马逊相对比微软便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68cf436c611eb187de68bf8802e73021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In summary, Microsoft is currently performing better than Amazon. However, Amazon's future appears to be a lot brighter than Microsoft. Since the stock markets are forward-looking, I would expect Amazon to outperform Microsoft over the coming years if their relative valuations were identical. With that being said, let us now calculate the intrinsic value of both Microsoft and Amazon along with future expected returns for these tech giants.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，微软目前的表现优于亚马逊。然而，亚马逊的未来似乎比微软要光明得多。由于股市具有前瞻性，如果亚马逊的相对估值相同，我预计亚马逊在未来几年的表现将优于微软。话虽如此，现在让我们计算一下微软和亚马逊的内在价值，以及这些科技巨头未来的预期回报。</blockquote></p><p> Evaluating the Fair Value And Expected Return of Microsoft And Amazon</p><p><blockquote>评估微软和亚马逊的公允价值和预期回报</blockquote></p><p> To find the fair values of Microsoft and Amazon, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p><p><blockquote>为了找到微软和亚马逊的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。它的含义如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流按我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p><p><blockquote><li>在步骤2中，模型考虑了已发行股票变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p><p><blockquote><li>在第3步中，我们将10年末未来增长前景的估值标准化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和10年末的预计股价得出CAGR。如果这比市场高出足够的幅度，我们就投资。如果没有，我们等待更好的切入点。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 4, we account for dividends.</li> </ul> <b>Assumptions:</b></p><p><blockquote><li>在第4步中，我们考虑股息。</li><b>假设：</b></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <colgroup></colgroup>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td>微软</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><td>亚马逊</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Forward 12-month revenue [A]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>远期12个月收入[A]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$195 billion</p><p><blockquote><td>1950亿美元</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$515 billion</p><p><blockquote><td>5150亿美元</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Potential Free Cash Flow Margin [B]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>潜在自由现金流利润率[B]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35%</p><p><blockquote><td>35%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Average diluted shares outstanding [C]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>平均稀释后已发行股份[C]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.5 billion</p><p><blockquote><td>75亿</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>525 million</p><p><blockquote><td>5.25亿</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Free cash flow per share [ D = (A * B) / C ]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股自由现金流[D=(A*B)/C]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$9.1</p><p><blockquote><td>$9.1</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$196.19</p><p><blockquote><td>$196.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Free cash flow per share growth rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股自由现金流增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Terminal growth rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>终末增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3%</p><p><blockquote><td>3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3%</p><p><blockquote><td>3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Years of elevated growth</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>多年的高增长</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10</p><p><blockquote><td>10</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10</p><p><blockquote><td>10</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total years to stimulate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>刺激总年数</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>100</p><p><blockquote><td>100</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>100</p><p><blockquote><td>100</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Discount Rate (Our \"Next Best Alternative\")</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>贴现率（我们的“次佳替代方案”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <b>Results:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结果：</b></blockquote></p><p> 1) Microsoft:</p><p><blockquote>1）微软：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875546f4aabbb1e580dcc9610c18a5b9\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"729\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8861dcb9fc1fbcd858297426ec52eaf6\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"771\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>2) Amazon:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2）亚马逊：</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8fb43ad416565a9768e919470e59bab\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"731\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a15de5a0494d4557b38c2290017588e9\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"430\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Summary of Results:</p><p><blockquote>结果总结：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Current Price</b></td>    <td><b>Fair Value</b></td>    <td><b>Undervalued (-) or Overvalued (+)</b></td>    <td><b>2031 Share Price Target</b></td>    <td><b>Total Expected CAGR Return</b></td>    <td><b>Rating</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Microsoft</b></td>    <td>$301</td>    <td>$295</td>    <td>+2.15%</td>    <td>$1101</td>    <td>14.71%</td>    <td><i>Modest Buy</i></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon</b></td>    <td>$3478</td>    <td>$6024</td>    <td>-42.27%</td>    <td>$22298</td>    <td>20.42%</td>    <td><i>Strong Buy</i></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> As you can see, Microsoft is slightly overvalued, and investors buying in at $301 can expect to generate CAGR returns of ~14.71% over the next decade, which is slightly below our investment hurdle rate of 15%. Since Microsoft's business fundamentals are robust, I rate it as a modest buy at this price. On the other hand, Amazon's business is facing near-term volatility, and business momentum looks shaky. However, Amazon's stock is deeply undervalued, and this is an opportunity for long-term investors to generate significant alpha. As Amazon's expected CAGR returns are much greater than my hurdle rate, I rate Amazon a strong buy. If I were to choose between Microsoft and Amazon based on business momentum (cloud and otherwise), I would have to go with Microsoft. However, Amazon's stock is massively undervalued while Microsoft is fairly valued. Considering the risk/reward available, I think Amazon is the better buy here.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>当前价格</b></td><td><b>公允价值</b></td><td><b>低估(-)或高估(+)</b></td><td><b>2031年股价目标</b></td><td><b>总预期复合年增长率回报</b></td><td><b>评级</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>微软</b></td><td>$301</td><td>$295</td><td>+2.15%</td><td>$1101</td><td>14.71%</td><td><i>适度购买</i></td></tr><tr><td><b>亚马逊</b></td><td>$3478</td><td>$6024</td><td>-42.27%</td><td>$22298</td><td>20.42%</td><td><i>强力买入</i></td></tr></tbody></table>正如您所看到的，微软的估值略有高估，以301美元买入的投资者预计未来十年的复合年增长率约为14.71%，略低于我们15%的投资门槛率。由于微软的业务基本面强劲，我将其评为以这个价格适度买入。另一方面，亚马逊的业务面临近期波动，业务势头看起来摇摇欲坠。然而，亚马逊的股票被严重低估，这是长期投资者产生显着阿尔法的机会。由于亚马逊的预期复合年增长率远大于我的最低回报率，我将亚马逊评为强力买入。如果我要根据业务势头（云和其他）在微软和亚马逊之间做出选择，我会选择微软。然而，亚马逊的股票被严重低估，而微软的估值相当合理。考虑到可用的风险/回报，我认为亚马逊是更好的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Key Takeaway: I rate Amazon a strong buy at $3,478 and Microsoft a modest buy at $301. Amazon is a better buy than Microsoft at this point in time.</p><p><blockquote>要点：我对亚马逊的评级为3,478美元的强力买入，对微软的评级为301美元的适度买入。目前，亚马逊比微软更划算。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Vs. Microsoft: Two Cloud Computing Giants, One Winning Stock<blockquote>亚马逊Vs.微软：两大云计算巨头，一只胜出股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Vs. Microsoft: Two Cloud Computing Giants, One Winning Stock<blockquote>亚马逊Vs.微软：两大云计算巨头，一只胜出股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-09 11:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Microsoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure services market. However, Amazon's AWS remains in the No.1 position.</li>  <li>Although the cloud wars are heating up, both Azure and AWS are performing exceptionally, growing at 51% y/y and 37% y/y, respectively.</li>  <li>The global cloud services market is poised to grow at a CAGR of ~15.8% until 2030 to become a $1.6T market. Therefore, cloud providers still have a long growth runway.</li>  <li>In this article, I share a comparative financial analysis for Microsoft and Amazon to determine the better buy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69eeb847ac2a68d9068ee3d90ae2ec5c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软的Azure继续在蓬勃发展的云基础设施服务市场中获得市场份额。然而，亚马逊的AWS仍然保持在第一的位置。</li><li>尽管云战争正在升温，但Azure和AWS的表现都非常出色，分别同比增长51%和37%。</li><li>到2030年，全球云服务市场将以约15.8%的复合年增长率增长，成为一个价值1.6 T美元的市场。因此，云提供商还有很长的增长跑道。</li><li>在这篇文章中，我分享了微软和亚马逊的比较财务分析，以确定更好的购买方式。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>奇普·索莫德维拉/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are competing for the coveted No.1 spot in the cloud infrastructure services market, which is projected to grow from $325B in 2021 to $1,620B (or $1.6T) by 2030, according to areportby Allied Market Research. In Q2, Amazon's AWS revenues grew at 37% year-over-year (marked acceleration) as it continues to lead the cloud infrastructure services market with a 31% market share. However, Microsoft's Azure is outpacing AWS's growth and now commands a market share of 22%.</p><p><blockquote>微软(MSFT)和亚马逊(AMZN)正在争夺云基础设施服务市场令人垂涎的第一名位置，根据Allied Market的报告，预计到2030年，该市场将从2021年的$325B增长到$1,620B（或$1.6 T）研究。第二季度，亚马逊的AWS收入同比增长37%（显着加速），继续以31%的市场份额引领云基础设施服务市场。然而，微软的Azure正在超过AWS的增长，目前占据22%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b929cfb3eb06a50b14a942b980bd8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: canalys.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：canalys.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the last year or so, the coronavirus pandemic has led to increased cloud infrastructure services spending as workload migration and cloud-native application development accelerated. Naturally, Azure and AWS have emerged as prime beneficiaries of this transformational shift toward the cloud. Although the coronavirus pandemic has receded in previous months, businesses have continued to embrace the cloud, as evidenced by the $5B sequential (q/q) growth in cloud infrastructure services spending in Q2 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在过去一年左右的时间里，随着工作负载迁移和云原生应用程序开发的加速，冠状病毒疫情导致云基础设施服务支出增加。自然，Azure和AWS已经成为这种向云转型的主要受益者。尽管冠状病毒疫情在前几个月已经消退，但企业仍在继续拥抱云，2021年Q2云基础设施服务支出环比增长50亿美元就证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab77f327d4b4f980b703dd05a727a8fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: canalys.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：canalys.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Both Microsoft and Amazon are well-diversified big tech giants. However, the cloud opportunity is critical to their future successes. Today, Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud business makes up nearly ~37% of total revenues and ~40% of Microsoft's operating income, and these figures are expected to grow even further in the coming years. In relation to Amazon, AWS's revenues are a small fraction (13% in Q2 2021) of total sales. However, AWS contributes the majority of Amazon's operating income (~60%). And so, I'm not surprised with how ugly this battle is turning out to be. In recent times, we have witnessed dramatic instances such as&nbsp;Amazon's lawsuit&nbsp;for the $10B Jedi contract being awarded to Microsoft,Microsoft's protest&nbsp;to Government Accountability Office in relation to the $10B NSA contract awarded to Amazon, and a top AWS executive - Charlie Bell (once expected to be a successor to Andy Jassy as AWS CEO) -moving over to Microsoft. The competition between Amazon and Microsoft is fearsome. However, I can see ample room for multiple winners in the cloud services market.</p><p><blockquote>微软和亚马逊都是多元化的大型科技巨头。然而，云机遇对他们未来的成功至关重要。如今，微软的智能云业务占总收入的近37%，占微软营业收入的约40%，预计这些数字在未来几年将进一步增长。与亚马逊相比，AWS的收入仅占总销售额的一小部分（2021年第二季度为13%）。然而，AWS贡献了亚马逊的大部分营业收入（约60%）。所以，我对这场战斗变得如此丑陋并不感到惊讶。最近，我们目睹了一些戏剧性的事件，如亚马逊就授予微软的100亿美元Jedi合同提起诉讼，微软就授予亚马逊的100亿美元NSA合同向政府问责办公室提出抗议，以及AWS高管Charlie Bell（曾有望接替Andy Jassy担任AWS首席执行官）搬到微软。亚马逊和微软之间的竞争是可怕的。然而，我可以看到云服务市场有足够的空间容纳多个赢家。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7fd2cfae285856cb75e5ced740ef320\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Allied Market Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：联合市场研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With massive cloud services growth on the horizon, I expect both Microsoft and Amazon to deliver double-digit revenue growth over the coming decade. Several analysts have projected the cloud services business to become a commodity. However, profitability metrics for AWS and Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud show that it's clearly not a commodity business (at least for now). Azure has been gaining ground on AWS, but it's too soon to tell which of these tech titans will lead the cloud services market over the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>随着云服务的大规模增长，我预计微软和亚马逊在未来十年都将实现两位数的收入增长。一些分析师预计云服务业务将成为一种商品。然而，AWS和微软智能云的盈利指标显示，它显然不是一项商品业务（至少目前如此）。Azure一直在AWS上取得进展，但现在判断这些科技巨头中哪一家将在未来几年引领云服务市场还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last 12 months, Microsoft has significantly outperformed Amazon in terms of creating shareholder wealth, as can be observed in the chart below. I attribute Microsoft's outperformance to a multitude of factors, including but not limited to stronger momentum in the cloud, the existence of a massive capital return program, and robust free cash flow generation.</p><p><blockquote>在过去12个月中，微软在创造股东财富方面的表现明显优于亚马逊，如下图所示。我将微软的优异表现归因于多种因素，包括但不限于云计算的强劲势头、大规模资本回报计划的存在以及强劲的自由现金流生成。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a47beb283bcc911ba9ad25c4c2c01f91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In today's article, I will share a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon. Furthermore, we will estimate the fair value and expected returns for both of these blue-chip companies based on the financial statement analysis conducted in this note.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的文章中，我将分享一个比较财务分析，以确定微软和亚马逊之间更好的购买方式。此外，我们将根据本附注中进行的财务报表分析估计这两家蓝筹公司的公允价值和预期回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Comparative Financial Analysis: Microsoft vs. Amazon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比较财务分析：微软与亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> I think it's too early to call the cloud services market, and the winners will only be evident in due time. However, it's very likely that Amazon and Microsoft will be dominating this market in 2031. Now, Amazon and Microsoft may be competitors in the cloud, but they happen to be two very different companies with varied core competencies: Amazon - e-commerce, Microsoft - business, and consumer software. Let's carry out a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>我认为现在看涨期权云服务市场还为时过早，赢家只有在适当的时候才会显现出来。然而，亚马逊和微软很可能会在2031年主导这个市场。现在，亚马逊和微软可能是云领域的竞争对手，但它们恰好是两家截然不同的公司，拥有不同的核心竞争力：亚马逊——电子商务、微软——商业和消费软件。让我们进行一个比较财务分析，以确定微软和亚马逊之间更好的购买方式。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d675b34f8dc1b88db5722fa7be591b9f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In essence, Microsoft is a high-margin software and services business, while Amazon is a low-margin retail business with some higher-margin business lines such as AWS and Advertising. Since both Amazon and Microsoft are over-covered stocks, I don't think discussing their revenue mix would be of much value. However, let's look at the free cash flow generation of these blue-chip giants to understand their current business momentum.</p><p><blockquote>本质上，微软是一个高利润的软件和服务业务，而亚马逊是一个低利润的零售业务，拥有一些更高利润的业务线，如AWS和广告。由于亚马逊和微软都是被过度覆盖的股票，我认为讨论它们的收入组合没有多大价值。然而，让我们看看这些蓝筹巨头的自由现金流生成情况，以了解他们目前的业务势头。</blockquote></p><p> After receiving a massive pandemic boost, Amazon's free cash flows have turned negative in the last two quarters as the company invests massive amounts of capital (capex spending) in driving future revenue growth. In Q2, Amazon missed revenue estimates by ~$2B, which is further evidence of Amazon losing business momentum. On the other hand, Microsoft's business momentum remained strong in Q2 as the company beat revenue expectations by ~$2B while generating record amounts of free cash flow over the last 12 months. Therefore, it's fair to say that Microsoft is outperforming Amazon for the time being.</p><p><blockquote>在受到大流行的巨大提振后，亚马逊的自由现金流在过去两个季度转为负值，因为该公司投入了大量资本（capex支出）来推动未来的收入增长。第二季度，亚马逊的收入低于预期约20亿美元，这进一步证明亚马逊正在失去业务动力。另一方面，微软第二季度的业务势头依然强劲，该公司的收入超出预期约20亿美元，同时在过去12个月内产生了创纪录的自由现金流。因此，可以公平地说，微软的表现暂时优于亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed96043009b5528ed09d4e736d1833d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the end of Q2, Microsoft had nearly $130B of cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet vs. financial debt of $58B (down from ~$90B debt in Dec'17). Over the last five years, Amazon's cash reserves have been building up, which now stand at ~$90B. However, the e-commerce giant has been increasing its debt load too, which has grown to $50B in Q2 2021.</p><p><blockquote>截至第二季度末，微软的资产负债表上有近130B美元的现金和短期投资，而金融债务为58B美元（低于17年12月的约90B美元债务）。在过去的五年里，亚马逊的现金储备一直在增加，目前约为90B美元。然而，这家电子商务巨头的债务负担也在增加，2021年第二季度已增至500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f8f27effc87360acc99c52dadd22af3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of balance sheet strength, Microsoft is clearly in a better position compared to Amazon. Moreover, Microsoft's free cash flow generation is superior to Amazon right now. As you can see below, Microsoft is using its financial strength to execute a massive capital return program that consists of stock buybacks and dividends. Although Amazon lacks a capital return program today, it's only a matter of time before Amazon boasts one of the largest capital return programs among big tech companies. Therefore, Microsoft's advantage in this department may be short lived.</p><p><blockquote>就资产负债表实力而言，与亚马逊相比，微软显然处于更有利的地位。此外，微软目前的自由现金流生成量优于亚马逊。如下图所示，微软正在利用其财务实力执行一项大规模资本回报计划，其中包括股票回购和股息。尽管亚马逊目前缺乏资本回报计划，但亚马逊拥有大型科技公司中最大的资本回报计划之一只是时间问题。因此，微软在这一部门的优势可能是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef388b2cab13ed222ddf2ba53ad6067f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While Microsoft returns the majority of its operational cash flows back to shareholders, Amazon is investing billions of dollars to drive future revenue (and, by extension, free cash flow) growth. In my opinion, Amazon will continue to outpace Microsoft's revenue growth over the next decade. As Amazon's faster-growing, higher-margin business lines, AWS and Advertising, contribute a larger share of Amazon's revenues over the coming years, its margins are expected to head higher. Hence, Amazon possesses the greater potential for revenue growth and margin expansion compared to Microsoft. To learn more about AWS and Amazon's Ads business, you may read the following notes:</p><p><blockquote>虽然微软将大部分运营现金流返还给股东，但亚马逊正在投资数十亿美元来推动未来收入（以及自由现金流）的增长。在我看来，未来十年，亚马逊的收入增长将继续超过微软。随着亚马逊增长更快、利润率更高的业务线AWS和广告在未来几年为亚马逊的收入贡献了更大的份额，预计其利润率将会上升。因此，与微软相比，亚马逊拥有更大的收入增长和利润率扩张潜力。要了解有关AWS和亚马逊广告业务的更多信息，您可以阅读以下说明：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Amazon Web Services -&nbsp;Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring</li>  <li>Digital Ads -&nbsp;Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e9ff96d611913db9e45fbff0cc34ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊网络服务-亚马逊：以下是您应该监控的内容</li><li>数字广告-亚马逊：“其他”细分市场的价值可能超过AWS</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Although Amazon appears to be more expensive than Microsoft based on backward-looking trading multiples such as Price-to-Earnings and Price-to-FCF ratios, it's relatively cheaper than Microsoft when we factor in future growth as indicated by the PEG ratios.</p><p><blockquote>尽管根据市盈率和市盈率与自由现金流比率等回顾性交易倍数，亚马逊似乎比微软贵，但当我们考虑到PEG比率所表明的未来增长时，亚马逊相对比微软便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68cf436c611eb187de68bf8802e73021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In summary, Microsoft is currently performing better than Amazon. However, Amazon's future appears to be a lot brighter than Microsoft. Since the stock markets are forward-looking, I would expect Amazon to outperform Microsoft over the coming years if their relative valuations were identical. With that being said, let us now calculate the intrinsic value of both Microsoft and Amazon along with future expected returns for these tech giants.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，微软目前的表现优于亚马逊。然而，亚马逊的未来似乎比微软要光明得多。由于股市具有前瞻性，如果亚马逊的相对估值相同，我预计亚马逊在未来几年的表现将优于微软。话虽如此，现在让我们计算一下微软和亚马逊的内在价值，以及这些科技巨头未来的预期回报。</blockquote></p><p> Evaluating the Fair Value And Expected Return of Microsoft And Amazon</p><p><blockquote>评估微软和亚马逊的公允价值和预期回报</blockquote></p><p> To find the fair values of Microsoft and Amazon, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p><p><blockquote>为了找到微软和亚马逊的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。它的含义如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流按我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p><p><blockquote><li>在步骤2中，模型考虑了已发行股票变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p><p><blockquote><li>在第3步中，我们将10年末未来增长前景的估值标准化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和10年末的预计股价得出CAGR。如果这比市场高出足够的幅度，我们就投资。如果没有，我们等待更好的切入点。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 4, we account for dividends.</li> </ul> <b>Assumptions:</b></p><p><blockquote><li>在第4步中，我们考虑股息。</li><b>假设：</b></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <colgroup></colgroup>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td>微软</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><td>亚马逊</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Forward 12-month revenue [A]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>远期12个月收入[A]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$195 billion</p><p><blockquote><td>1950亿美元</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$515 billion</p><p><blockquote><td>5150亿美元</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Potential Free Cash Flow Margin [B]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>潜在自由现金流利润率[B]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35%</p><p><blockquote><td>35%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Average diluted shares outstanding [C]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>平均稀释后已发行股份[C]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.5 billion</p><p><blockquote><td>75亿</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>525 million</p><p><blockquote><td>5.25亿</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Free cash flow per share [ D = (A * B) / C ]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股自由现金流[D=(A*B)/C]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$9.1</p><p><blockquote><td>$9.1</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$196.19</p><p><blockquote><td>$196.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Free cash flow per share growth rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股自由现金流增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Terminal growth rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>终末增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3%</p><p><blockquote><td>3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3%</p><p><blockquote><td>3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Years of elevated growth</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>多年的高增长</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10</p><p><blockquote><td>10</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10</p><p><blockquote><td>10</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total years to stimulate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>刺激总年数</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>100</p><p><blockquote><td>100</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>100</p><p><blockquote><td>100</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Discount Rate (Our \"Next Best Alternative\")</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>贴现率（我们的“次佳替代方案”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <b>Results:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结果：</b></blockquote></p><p> 1) Microsoft:</p><p><blockquote>1）微软：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875546f4aabbb1e580dcc9610c18a5b9\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"729\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8861dcb9fc1fbcd858297426ec52eaf6\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"771\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>2) Amazon:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2）亚马逊：</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8fb43ad416565a9768e919470e59bab\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"731\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a15de5a0494d4557b38c2290017588e9\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"430\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Summary of Results:</p><p><blockquote>结果总结：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Current Price</b></td>    <td><b>Fair Value</b></td>    <td><b>Undervalued (-) or Overvalued (+)</b></td>    <td><b>2031 Share Price Target</b></td>    <td><b>Total Expected CAGR Return</b></td>    <td><b>Rating</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Microsoft</b></td>    <td>$301</td>    <td>$295</td>    <td>+2.15%</td>    <td>$1101</td>    <td>14.71%</td>    <td><i>Modest Buy</i></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon</b></td>    <td>$3478</td>    <td>$6024</td>    <td>-42.27%</td>    <td>$22298</td>    <td>20.42%</td>    <td><i>Strong Buy</i></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> As you can see, Microsoft is slightly overvalued, and investors buying in at $301 can expect to generate CAGR returns of ~14.71% over the next decade, which is slightly below our investment hurdle rate of 15%. Since Microsoft's business fundamentals are robust, I rate it as a modest buy at this price. On the other hand, Amazon's business is facing near-term volatility, and business momentum looks shaky. However, Amazon's stock is deeply undervalued, and this is an opportunity for long-term investors to generate significant alpha. As Amazon's expected CAGR returns are much greater than my hurdle rate, I rate Amazon a strong buy. If I were to choose between Microsoft and Amazon based on business momentum (cloud and otherwise), I would have to go with Microsoft. However, Amazon's stock is massively undervalued while Microsoft is fairly valued. Considering the risk/reward available, I think Amazon is the better buy here.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>当前价格</b></td><td><b>公允价值</b></td><td><b>低估(-)或高估(+)</b></td><td><b>2031年股价目标</b></td><td><b>总预期复合年增长率回报</b></td><td><b>评级</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>微软</b></td><td>$301</td><td>$295</td><td>+2.15%</td><td>$1101</td><td>14.71%</td><td><i>适度购买</i></td></tr><tr><td><b>亚马逊</b></td><td>$3478</td><td>$6024</td><td>-42.27%</td><td>$22298</td><td>20.42%</td><td><i>强力买入</i></td></tr></tbody></table>正如您所看到的，微软的估值略有高估，以301美元买入的投资者预计未来十年的复合年增长率约为14.71%，略低于我们15%的投资门槛率。由于微软的业务基本面强劲，我将其评为以这个价格适度买入。另一方面，亚马逊的业务面临近期波动，业务势头看起来摇摇欲坠。然而，亚马逊的股票被严重低估，这是长期投资者产生显着阿尔法的机会。由于亚马逊的预期复合年增长率远大于我的最低回报率，我将亚马逊评为强力买入。如果我要根据业务势头（云和其他）在微软和亚马逊之间做出选择，我会选择微软。然而，亚马逊的股票被严重低估，而微软的估值相当合理。考虑到可用的风险/回报，我认为亚马逊是更好的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Key Takeaway: I rate Amazon a strong buy at $3,478 and Microsoft a modest buy at $301. Amazon is a better buy than Microsoft at this point in time.</p><p><blockquote>要点：我对亚马逊的评级为3,478美元的强力买入，对微软的评级为301美元的适度买入。目前，亚马逊比微软更划算。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453940-amazon-vs-microsoft-two-cloud-computing-giants-one-winning-stock\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453940-amazon-vs-microsoft-two-cloud-computing-giants-one-winning-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127517147","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure services market. However, Amazon's AWS remains in the No.1 position.\nAlthough the cloud wars are heating up, both Azure and AWS are performing exceptionally, growing at 51% y/y and 37% y/y, respectively.\nThe global cloud services market is poised to grow at a CAGR of ~15.8% until 2030 to become a $1.6T market. Therefore, cloud providers still have a long growth runway.\nIn this article, I share a comparative financial analysis for Microsoft and Amazon to determine the better buy.\n\nChip Somodevilla/Getty Images News\nIntroduction\nMicrosoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are competing for the coveted No.1 spot in the cloud infrastructure services market, which is projected to grow from $325B in 2021 to $1,620B (or $1.6T) by 2030, according to areportby Allied Market Research. In Q2, Amazon's AWS revenues grew at 37% year-over-year (marked acceleration) as it continues to lead the cloud infrastructure services market with a 31% market share. However, Microsoft's Azure is outpacing AWS's growth and now commands a market share of 22%.\nSource: canalys.com\nIn the last year or so, the coronavirus pandemic has led to increased cloud infrastructure services spending as workload migration and cloud-native application development accelerated. Naturally, Azure and AWS have emerged as prime beneficiaries of this transformational shift toward the cloud. Although the coronavirus pandemic has receded in previous months, businesses have continued to embrace the cloud, as evidenced by the $5B sequential (q/q) growth in cloud infrastructure services spending in Q2 2021.\nSource: canalys.com\nBoth Microsoft and Amazon are well-diversified big tech giants. However, the cloud opportunity is critical to their future successes. Today, Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud business makes up nearly ~37% of total revenues and ~40% of Microsoft's operating income, and these figures are expected to grow even further in the coming years. In relation to Amazon, AWS's revenues are a small fraction (13% in Q2 2021) of total sales. However, AWS contributes the majority of Amazon's operating income (~60%). And so, I'm not surprised with how ugly this battle is turning out to be. In recent times, we have witnessed dramatic instances such as Amazon's lawsuit for the $10B Jedi contract being awarded to Microsoft,Microsoft's protest to Government Accountability Office in relation to the $10B NSA contract awarded to Amazon, and a top AWS executive - Charlie Bell (once expected to be a successor to Andy Jassy as AWS CEO) -moving over to Microsoft. The competition between Amazon and Microsoft is fearsome. However, I can see ample room for multiple winners in the cloud services market.\nSource: Allied Market Research\nWith massive cloud services growth on the horizon, I expect both Microsoft and Amazon to deliver double-digit revenue growth over the coming decade. Several analysts have projected the cloud services business to become a commodity. However, profitability metrics for AWS and Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud show that it's clearly not a commodity business (at least for now). Azure has been gaining ground on AWS, but it's too soon to tell which of these tech titans will lead the cloud services market over the coming years.\nOver the last 12 months, Microsoft has significantly outperformed Amazon in terms of creating shareholder wealth, as can be observed in the chart below. I attribute Microsoft's outperformance to a multitude of factors, including but not limited to stronger momentum in the cloud, the existence of a massive capital return program, and robust free cash flow generation.\nSource: YCharts\nIn today's article, I will share a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon. Furthermore, we will estimate the fair value and expected returns for both of these blue-chip companies based on the financial statement analysis conducted in this note.\nComparative Financial Analysis: Microsoft vs. Amazon\nI think it's too early to call the cloud services market, and the winners will only be evident in due time. However, it's very likely that Amazon and Microsoft will be dominating this market in 2031. Now, Amazon and Microsoft may be competitors in the cloud, but they happen to be two very different companies with varied core competencies: Amazon - e-commerce, Microsoft - business, and consumer software. Let's carry out a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon.\nSource: YCharts\nIn essence, Microsoft is a high-margin software and services business, while Amazon is a low-margin retail business with some higher-margin business lines such as AWS and Advertising. Since both Amazon and Microsoft are over-covered stocks, I don't think discussing their revenue mix would be of much value. However, let's look at the free cash flow generation of these blue-chip giants to understand their current business momentum.\nAfter receiving a massive pandemic boost, Amazon's free cash flows have turned negative in the last two quarters as the company invests massive amounts of capital (capex spending) in driving future revenue growth. In Q2, Amazon missed revenue estimates by ~$2B, which is further evidence of Amazon losing business momentum. On the other hand, Microsoft's business momentum remained strong in Q2 as the company beat revenue expectations by ~$2B while generating record amounts of free cash flow over the last 12 months. Therefore, it's fair to say that Microsoft is outperforming Amazon for the time being.\nSource: YCharts\nAt the end of Q2, Microsoft had nearly $130B of cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet vs. financial debt of $58B (down from ~$90B debt in Dec'17). Over the last five years, Amazon's cash reserves have been building up, which now stand at ~$90B. However, the e-commerce giant has been increasing its debt load too, which has grown to $50B in Q2 2021.\nSource: YCharts\nIn terms of balance sheet strength, Microsoft is clearly in a better position compared to Amazon. Moreover, Microsoft's free cash flow generation is superior to Amazon right now. As you can see below, Microsoft is using its financial strength to execute a massive capital return program that consists of stock buybacks and dividends. Although Amazon lacks a capital return program today, it's only a matter of time before Amazon boasts one of the largest capital return programs among big tech companies. Therefore, Microsoft's advantage in this department may be short lived.\nSource: YCharts\nWhile Microsoft returns the majority of its operational cash flows back to shareholders, Amazon is investing billions of dollars to drive future revenue (and, by extension, free cash flow) growth. In my opinion, Amazon will continue to outpace Microsoft's revenue growth over the next decade. As Amazon's faster-growing, higher-margin business lines, AWS and Advertising, contribute a larger share of Amazon's revenues over the coming years, its margins are expected to head higher. Hence, Amazon possesses the greater potential for revenue growth and margin expansion compared to Microsoft. To learn more about AWS and Amazon's Ads business, you may read the following notes:\n\nAmazon Web Services - Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring\nDigital Ads - Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS\n\nSource: YCharts\nAlthough Amazon appears to be more expensive than Microsoft based on backward-looking trading multiples such as Price-to-Earnings and Price-to-FCF ratios, it's relatively cheaper than Microsoft when we factor in future growth as indicated by the PEG ratios.\nSource: YCharts\nIn summary, Microsoft is currently performing better than Amazon. However, Amazon's future appears to be a lot brighter than Microsoft. Since the stock markets are forward-looking, I would expect Amazon to outperform Microsoft over the coming years if their relative valuations were identical. With that being said, let us now calculate the intrinsic value of both Microsoft and Amazon along with future expected returns for these tech giants.\nEvaluating the Fair Value And Expected Return of Microsoft And Amazon\nTo find the fair values of Microsoft and Amazon, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\nIn step 4, we account for dividends.\n\nAssumptions:\n\n\n\n\nMicrosoft\nAmazon\n\n\nForward 12-month revenue [A]\n$195 billion\n$515 billion\n\n\nPotential Free Cash Flow Margin [B]\n35%\n20%\n\n\nAverage diluted shares outstanding [C]\n7.5 billion\n525 million\n\n\nFree cash flow per share [ D = (A * B) / C ]\n$9.1\n$196.19\n\n\nFree cash flow per share growth rate\n10%\n12.5%\n\n\nTerminal growth rate\n3%\n3%\n\n\nYears of elevated growth\n10\n10\n\n\nTotal years to stimulate\n100\n100\n\n\nDiscount Rate (Our \"Next Best Alternative\")\n9.8%\n9.8%\n\n\n\nResults:\n1) Microsoft:\n\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\n2) Amazon:\n\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nSummary of Results:\n\n\n\nCurrent Price\nFair Value\nUndervalued (-) or Overvalued (+)\n2031 Share Price Target\nTotal Expected CAGR Return\nRating\n\n\nMicrosoft\n$301\n$295\n+2.15%\n$1101\n14.71%\nModest Buy\n\n\nAmazon\n$3478\n$6024\n-42.27%\n$22298\n20.42%\nStrong Buy\n\n\n\nAs you can see, Microsoft is slightly overvalued, and investors buying in at $301 can expect to generate CAGR returns of ~14.71% over the next decade, which is slightly below our investment hurdle rate of 15%. Since Microsoft's business fundamentals are robust, I rate it as a modest buy at this price. On the other hand, Amazon's business is facing near-term volatility, and business momentum looks shaky. However, Amazon's stock is deeply undervalued, and this is an opportunity for long-term investors to generate significant alpha. As Amazon's expected CAGR returns are much greater than my hurdle rate, I rate Amazon a strong buy. If I were to choose between Microsoft and Amazon based on business momentum (cloud and otherwise), I would have to go with Microsoft. However, Amazon's stock is massively undervalued while Microsoft is fairly valued. Considering the risk/reward available, I think Amazon is the better buy here.\nKey Takeaway: I rate Amazon a strong buy at $3,478 and Microsoft a modest buy at $301. Amazon is a better buy than Microsoft at this point in time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819275266,"gmtCreate":1630074843555,"gmtModify":1704955616467,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go Cathie! [Bless]&nbsp;[Victory]&nbsp;","listText":"Go Cathie! [Bless]&nbsp;[Victory]&nbsp;","text":"Go Cathie! [Bless] [Victory]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819275266","repostId":"1131568820","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819273455,"gmtCreate":1630074673377,"gmtModify":1704955608882,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819273455","repostId":"1144443028","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144443028","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1630057477,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144443028?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-27 17:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple CEO Tim Cook Gets $750M In Shares From iPhone Maker And Cashes Them Out Almost Immediately<blockquote>苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克从iPhone制造商那里获得了7.5亿美元的股票，并几乎立即兑现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144443028","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Apple Tim Cook received more than five million shares in the technology giant this week as part of a","content":"<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a></b>&nbsp;<b>Tim Cook</b>&nbsp;received more than five million shares in the technology giant this week as part of a compensation package but sold most of the stock immediately for more than $750 million.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a></b> <b>蒂姆·库克</b>作为薪酬方案的一部分，本周收到了这家科技巨头超过500万股股票，但立即以超过7.5亿美元的价格出售了大部分股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>&nbsp;Cook received 5.04 million shares on Tuesday as the final part of a compensation package that he was awarded after he took over as CEO of Apple in 2011, according to a regulatory filing from Thursday.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>根据周四提交的一份监管文件，库克周二收到了504万股股票，这是他2011年接任苹果首席执行官后获得的薪酬方案的最后一部分。</blockquote></p><p> The shares are worth $754 million, based on Apple’s closing stock price of $149.62 on Tuesday. However, Cook sold most of the shares over a period of two days for more than $750 million.</p><p><blockquote>根据苹果周二收盘价149.62美元计算，这些股票价值7.54亿美元。然而，库克在两天内以超过7.5亿美元的价格出售了大部分股票。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the Apple CEO’s compensation depended on how well Apple’s shares performed compared to other companies on the S&amp;P 500 stock index. Cook was eligible for the award as Apple’s total shareholder return&nbsp;was 191.83% over the last three years, as per the filing.</p><p><blockquote>苹果首席执行官的部分薪酬取决于苹果的股票与标普500股票指数中其他公司相比的表现。根据文件，库克有资格获得该奖项，因为苹果过去三年的股东总回报率为191.83%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Matters</b>: Last year, Cook received a new compensation package that runs through 2026.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它很重要</b>：去年，库克收到了一份持续到2026年的新薪酬方案。</blockquote></p><p> Cook had said in 2015 that he plans to give away the vast majority of his wealth to charity. It was reported earlier this week that Cook&nbsp;donated more than $10 million&nbsp;in the iPhone maker’s stock to an undisclosed charity.</p><p><blockquote>库克曾在2015年表示，他计划将绝大部分财富捐给慈善机构。本周早些时候有报道称，库克将这家iPhone制造商超过1000万美元的股票捐赠给了一家未公开的慈善机构。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;Apple shares closed almost 0.6% lower in Thursday’s regular trading session at $147.54, but rose less than 0.1% in the after-hours session to $147.58.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势：</b>苹果股价在周四常规交易时段收盘下跌近0.6%，至147.54美元，但在盘后交易时段上涨不到0.1%，至147.58美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple CEO Tim Cook Gets $750M In Shares From iPhone Maker And Cashes Them Out Almost Immediately<blockquote>苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克从iPhone制造商那里获得了7.5亿美元的股票，并几乎立即兑现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple CEO Tim Cook Gets $750M In Shares From iPhone Maker And Cashes Them Out Almost Immediately<blockquote>苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克从iPhone制造商那里获得了7.5亿美元的股票，并几乎立即兑现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-27 17:44</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a></b>&nbsp;<b>Tim Cook</b>&nbsp;received more than five million shares in the technology giant this week as part of a compensation package but sold most of the stock immediately for more than $750 million.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a></b> <b>蒂姆·库克</b>作为薪酬方案的一部分，本周收到了这家科技巨头超过500万股股票，但立即以超过7.5亿美元的价格出售了大部分股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>&nbsp;Cook received 5.04 million shares on Tuesday as the final part of a compensation package that he was awarded after he took over as CEO of Apple in 2011, according to a regulatory filing from Thursday.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>根据周四提交的一份监管文件，库克周二收到了504万股股票，这是他2011年接任苹果首席执行官后获得的薪酬方案的最后一部分。</blockquote></p><p> The shares are worth $754 million, based on Apple’s closing stock price of $149.62 on Tuesday. However, Cook sold most of the shares over a period of two days for more than $750 million.</p><p><blockquote>根据苹果周二收盘价149.62美元计算，这些股票价值7.54亿美元。然而，库克在两天内以超过7.5亿美元的价格出售了大部分股票。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the Apple CEO’s compensation depended on how well Apple’s shares performed compared to other companies on the S&amp;P 500 stock index. Cook was eligible for the award as Apple’s total shareholder return&nbsp;was 191.83% over the last three years, as per the filing.</p><p><blockquote>苹果首席执行官的部分薪酬取决于苹果的股票与标普500股票指数中其他公司相比的表现。根据文件，库克有资格获得该奖项，因为苹果过去三年的股东总回报率为191.83%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Matters</b>: Last year, Cook received a new compensation package that runs through 2026.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它很重要</b>：去年，库克收到了一份持续到2026年的新薪酬方案。</blockquote></p><p> Cook had said in 2015 that he plans to give away the vast majority of his wealth to charity. It was reported earlier this week that Cook&nbsp;donated more than $10 million&nbsp;in the iPhone maker’s stock to an undisclosed charity.</p><p><blockquote>库克曾在2015年表示，他计划将绝大部分财富捐给慈善机构。本周早些时候有报道称，库克将这家iPhone制造商超过1000万美元的股票捐赠给了一家未公开的慈善机构。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;Apple shares closed almost 0.6% lower in Thursday’s regular trading session at $147.54, but rose less than 0.1% in the after-hours session to $147.58.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势：</b>苹果股价在周四常规交易时段收盘下跌近0.6%，至147.54美元，但在盘后交易时段上涨不到0.1%，至147.58美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144443028","content_text":"Apple Tim Cook received more than five million shares in the technology giant this week as part of a compensation package but sold most of the stock immediately for more than $750 million.\nWhat Happened: Cook received 5.04 million shares on Tuesday as the final part of a compensation package that he was awarded after he took over as CEO of Apple in 2011, according to a regulatory filing from Thursday.\nThe shares are worth $754 million, based on Apple’s closing stock price of $149.62 on Tuesday. However, Cook sold most of the shares over a period of two days for more than $750 million.\nPart of the Apple CEO’s compensation depended on how well Apple’s shares performed compared to other companies on the S&P 500 stock index. Cook was eligible for the award as Apple’s total shareholder return was 191.83% over the last three years, as per the filing.\nWhy It Matters: Last year, Cook received a new compensation package that runs through 2026.\nCook had said in 2015 that he plans to give away the vast majority of his wealth to charity. It was reported earlier this week that Cook donated more than $10 million in the iPhone maker’s stock to an undisclosed charity.\nPrice Action: Apple shares closed almost 0.6% lower in Thursday’s regular trading session at $147.54, but rose less than 0.1% in the after-hours session to $147.58.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819270370,"gmtCreate":1630074590590,"gmtModify":1704955604580,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Surprised]&nbsp;","listText":"[Surprised]&nbsp;","text":"[Surprised]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819270370","repostId":"2162199960","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839388793,"gmtCreate":1629122374712,"gmtModify":1631890264847,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good company good products","listText":"Good company good products","text":"Good company good products","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839388793","repostId":"1111034903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111034903","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629099150,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111034903?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 15:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple’s Next iPhone Is Coming Soon. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>苹果的下一代iPhone即将上市。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111034903","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Analysts say camera improvements are the biggest changes hitting Apple’s coming smartphones. Otherwi","content":"<p>Analysts say camera improvements are the biggest changes hitting Apple’s coming smartphones. Otherwise, expect modest upgrades.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，摄像头的改进是苹果即将推出的智能手机的最大变化。否则，期待适度的升级。</blockquote></p><p> About to buy a new iPhone?Don’t. We expect&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;to announce new models sometime next month, as it does every year. And even if you aren’t interested in the latest and greatest, the company generally drops the price of some older models along with the new crop.</p><p><blockquote>即将购买新iPhone？不要。我们预计苹果将像每年一样在下个月的某个时候宣布新车型。即使你对最新最好的不感兴趣，该公司通常会降低一些旧型号和新产品的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is, of course, hush-hush on what’s to come. A company spokeswoman declined to comment on future products. But iPhone production tends to be a leaky business, and I asked analysts who monitor Apple’s sales and supply chain to weigh in on the next iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果对即将发生的事情守口如瓶。公司发言人拒绝对未来的产品发表评论。但iPhone生产往往是一项漏洞百出的业务，我请监控苹果销售和供应链的分析师对下一代iPhone进行权衡。</blockquote></p><p> First, what will it be called? The iPhone 13? It’s a likely bet, since Apple skipped the iPhone 11S and went right to the 12.</p><p><blockquote>首先，它会叫什么？iPhone 13？这是一个可能的赌注，因为苹果跳过了iPhone 11S，直接进入了12。</blockquote></p><p> Some have hypothesized Apple might steer clear of the number because of superstition, the way some skyscrapers skip a 13th floor.A survey&nbsp;of 3,000 Apple users by Sell Cell, a used-electronics vendor, found that 18% would be put off by an iPhone 13. But Apple hasn’t shied away from naming software iOS 13 or selling a 13-inch MacBook.</p><p><blockquote>一些人假设苹果可能会因为迷信而避开这个数字，就像一些摩天大楼跳过13层一样。二手电子产品供应商Sell Cell对3,000名苹果用户进行的一项调查发现，18%的人会因为iPhone而推迟13。但苹果并没有回避将软件命名为iOS 13或销售13英寸MacBook。</blockquote></p><p> Whether it’s iPhone 13, iPhone 12S, iPhone 2021 or even iPhone (15th generation), there will be several new models this year. Here’s what you can expect from the coming device:</p><p><blockquote>无论是iPhone 13、iPhone 12S、iPhone 2021甚至iPhone（15代），今年都会有几款新机型出现。以下是您对即将推出的设备的期望：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Modest Changes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>适度变化</b></blockquote></p><p> “We’re in the 5G chapter of the iPhone, which is a multiyear chapter,” said Gene Munster, a managing partner and Apple analyst with venture-capital firm Loup Ventures. “It’s going to be pretty modest over years two and three.”</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司Loup Ventures的管理合伙人兼苹果分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)表示：“我们正处于iPhone的5G篇章，这是一个多年的篇章。”“第二年和第三年的情况会相当温和。”</blockquote></p><p> Last year was&nbsp;significant for the device. The iPhone 12 models—the first to support faster 5G cellular networks—got a redesign and gained two new sizes in&nbsp;the Mini&nbsp;and&nbsp;Pro Max. Apple typically follows a big update with a less noteworthy release. Mr. Munster said we’ll see incremental improvements: a faster processor, longer battery life and camera upgrades.</p><p><blockquote>去年对于该设备来说意义重大。iPhone 12机型是第一款支持更快5G蜂窝网络的机型，它进行了重新设计，并在Mini和Pro Max中增加了两种新尺寸。苹果通常会在一次大更新后发布一个不太值得注意的版本。蒙斯特先生说，我们将看到渐进式的改进：更快的处理器、更长的电池寿命和相机升级。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6147bbb135ac38b417c4707fb0f9b78\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Last year iPhone 12 models—the first to support faster 5G cellular networks—got a redesign and gained two new sizes.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>去年，iPhone 12机型（第一款支持更快5G蜂窝网络的机型）进行了重新设计，并增加了两种新尺寸。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Camera Improvements</b></p><p><blockquote><b>相机改进</b></blockquote></p><p> “There’s a pretty healthy set of rumors about the camera, which are true,” he said. “I believe that this will be Apple’s selling point this time around.”</p><p><blockquote>“关于这款相机有一系列相当健康的谣言，这些都是真的，”他说。“我相信这将是苹果这次的卖点。”</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Munster pointed to a&nbsp;Bloomberg story&nbsp;that reports the camera on the higher-end Pro and Pro Max models could support Portrait mode (where the background is artfully blurred) when shooting video, as well as a higher-quality video format. High-end&nbsp;Samsung&nbsp;Galaxy phones have been able to shoot portrait mode during video—called Video Live Focus—since 2019, with the Samsung Galaxy S10 5G.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特先生指出，彭博社的一篇报道称，高端Pro和Pro Max型号上的相机在拍摄视频时可以支持人像模式（背景被巧妙地模糊）以及更高质量的视频格式。自2019年以来，高端三星Galaxy手机已经能够在视频期间拍摄人像模式，称为视频实时对焦，三星Galaxy S10 5G。</blockquote></p><p> <b>One More Mini</b></p><p><blockquote><b>再来一个迷你</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple saw lackluster sales of the iPhone 12 Mini, which has a 5.4-inch screen.Counterpoint Intelligence Research Partners&nbsp;estimates that the Mini made up just 5% of total iPhone 12 sales in the quarter ending June 2021.Trendforce, a market research firm, reported that Apple halted iPhone 12 mini production.</p><p><blockquote>苹果5.4英寸屏幕的iPhone 12 mini销量低迷。Counterpoint Intelligence Research Partners估计，截至2021年6月的季度，mini仅占iPhone 12总销量的5%。市场研究公司Trendforce据报道，苹果停止了iPhone 12 mini的生产。</blockquote></p><p> However, Mr. Munster believes that we’ll see another Mini this year. “It’s a niche, but people in that niche tend to like them,” he said. This was welcome news to me. I happen to be in that niche—though I do think the small phone’s battery life could be much better.</p><p><blockquote>然而，明斯特先生相信今年我们会看到另一款Mini。“这是一个利基市场，但该利基市场的人们往往喜欢它们，”他说。这对我来说是个好消息。我碰巧在那个利基市场——尽管我确实认为小型手机的电池寿命可以更好。</blockquote></p><p> Adam Wears, an analyst at Juniper Research, agrees. He expects Apple will phase out the Mini in subsequent years, focusing instead on its standard and premium-tier Pro and Pro Max models, while the iPhone SE, with a 4.7-inch screen, becomes the lower-priced model.</p><p><blockquote>瞻博研究(Juniper Research)分析师亚当·韦尔斯(Adam Wears)对此表示同意。他预计苹果将在随后几年逐步淘汰Mini，转而专注于其标准和高端Pro和Pro Max型号，而配备4.7英寸屏幕的iPhone SE将成为价格较低的型号。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8c33d34b970f0851a8ee62ccb8497c9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Apple CEO Tim Cook showed off the iPhone 12 Pro in October 2020.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果首席执行官Tim Cook在2020年10月展示了iPhone 12 Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wider 5G Availability</b></p><p><blockquote><b>更广泛的5G可用性</b></blockquote></p><p> Mr. Wears also anticipates the next iPhone will expand the use of&nbsp;high-frequency millimeter-wave technology&nbsp;in handsets in more countries across Asia and Europe.</p><p><blockquote>Wears先生还预计，下一代iPhone将在亚洲和欧洲更多国家的手机中扩大高频毫米波技术的使用。</blockquote></p><p> The iPhone 12 globally supports the more conventional sub-6-gigahertz band, but the faster millimeter-wave antenna, which can’t travel long distances and is more susceptible to obstacles such as trees, is only available in iPhone models in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 12在全球范围内支持更传统的6千兆赫以下频段，但速度更快的毫米波天线无法长距离传播，更容易受到树木等障碍物的影响，仅在美国的iPhone机型中提供。</blockquote></p><p> Brian White, an analyst with Monness Crespi Hardt, agrees that the next iPhones will likely “further tap into this nascent global 5G ramp.”</p><p><blockquote>Monness Crespi Hardt分析师布莱恩·怀特(Brian White)也认为，下一代iPhone可能会“进一步利用这一新兴的全球5G增长”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shipping Delays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>运输延误</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple said it is affected by the disruption to the&nbsp;global supply of microprocessors. “We’re going to take it sort of one quarter at a time and, as you would guess, we’ll do everything we can to mitigate whatever set of circumstances we’re dealt,” Chief Executive Tim Cook told analysts during a public conference call last month.</p><p><blockquote>苹果表示，受到全球微处理器供应中断的影响。首席执行官蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)在一次会议上对分析师表示：“我们将一次处理一个季度，正如您所猜测的那样，我们将尽一切努力缓解我们面临的任何情况。”上个月的公开电话会议。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Mr. Munster said that while he expects the company to announce the phone in September with availability in October, he thinks most customers won’t receive devices until December.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特表示，虽然他预计该公司将在9月份发布这款手机，并在10月份上市，但他认为大多数客户要到12月份才能收到设备。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/881a288be0216567393e9fa6f1fc7f79\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Samsung recently announced two foldable devices: the Galaxy Z Flip3, left, and Galaxy Z Fold3.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>三星最近发布了两款可折叠设备：Galaxy Z Flip3（左）和Galaxy Z Fold3。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>No Foldable—Yet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还没有可折叠的</b></blockquote></p><p> “The chapter after 5G is foldable phones,” said Mr. Munster, who expects Apple to release that device in 2023. The competition in the space is heating up: Samsung recently announced two foldable devices, the&nbsp;Galaxy Z Fold3 and Galaxy Z Flip3. The former opens like a book and the latter works like an old-school flip phone, like the old Motorola Razr. The prediction that iPhones will eventually flip is reinforced by the fact that Samsung is one of Apple’s top display manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>“5G之后的篇章是可折叠手机，”蒙斯特先生说，他预计苹果将在2023年发布该设备。该领域的竞争正在升温：三星最近发布了两款可折叠设备，Galaxy Z Fold3和Galaxy Z Flip3。前者像一本书一样打开，后者像老式翻盖手机一样工作，就像旧的摩托罗拉Razr。三星是苹果顶级显示器制造商之一，这一事实强化了iPhones最终将翻转的预测。</blockquote></p><p> My colleague Joanna Stern found a pattern in Samsung and Apple releases. The iPhone maker typically incorporates features&nbsp;two to three years after Samsung. And if that timeline is any indication, the iPhone is soon due for an in-screen fingerprint reader and a screen with a faster 120-hertz refresh rate for smoother animations.</p><p><blockquote>我的同事Joanna Stern在三星和苹果的版本中发现了一种模式。这家iPhone制造商通常会在三星之后两到三年整合一些功能。如果这个时间表有任何迹象的话，iPhone很快就会配备屏内指纹识别器和更快的120赫兹刷新率的屏幕，以实现更流畅的动画。</blockquote></p><p> Joanna reported that Apple has been working on in-screen fingerprint technology and has considered including Touch ID and Face ID on the same device, according to two former Apple employees. It probably won’t appear this year, however.</p><p><blockquote>Joanna报道称，据两名苹果前员工透露，苹果一直在研究屏内指纹技术，并考虑将Touch ID和Face ID包含在同一设备上。然而，今年可能不会出现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What About Other Phones?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他手机呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> If you’re in the market for an upgrade, there are, of course, other options to consider.</p><p><blockquote>如果你想升级，当然还有其他选择可以考虑。</blockquote></p><p> Google already announced that its next Pixel 6 will run its own proprietary Google-designed chip and feature a new camera system. We’ll hear more details sometime this fall. Meanwhile, Samsung lowered the price of its recent foldables to $1,800 for the Fold ($200 less than its predecessor) and $1,000 for the smaller Flip (nearly $400 cheaper than last year’s model). And while&nbsp;the Galaxy S21is still probably the best overall Android purchase, Samsung will likely launch its next non-folding flagship Galaxy phones in early 2022.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌已经宣布，其下一代Pixel 6将运行谷歌设计的专有芯片，并采用新的相机系统。我们将在今年秋天的某个时候听到更多细节。与此同时，三星将其最新可折叠产品的价格降至1800美元（比前代产品便宜200美元），较小的Flip价格降至1000美元（比去年的型号便宜近400美元）。虽然Galaxy S21可能仍然是最好的Android产品，但三星可能会在2022年初推出下一款非折叠旗舰Galaxy手机。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple’s Next iPhone Is Coming Soon. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>苹果的下一代iPhone即将上市。这是可以期待的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple’s Next iPhone Is Coming Soon. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>苹果的下一代iPhone即将上市。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-16 15:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Analysts say camera improvements are the biggest changes hitting Apple’s coming smartphones. Otherwise, expect modest upgrades.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，摄像头的改进是苹果即将推出的智能手机的最大变化。否则，期待适度的升级。</blockquote></p><p> About to buy a new iPhone?Don’t. We expect&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;to announce new models sometime next month, as it does every year. And even if you aren’t interested in the latest and greatest, the company generally drops the price of some older models along with the new crop.</p><p><blockquote>即将购买新iPhone？不要。我们预计苹果将像每年一样在下个月的某个时候宣布新车型。即使你对最新最好的不感兴趣，该公司通常会降低一些旧型号和新产品的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is, of course, hush-hush on what’s to come. A company spokeswoman declined to comment on future products. But iPhone production tends to be a leaky business, and I asked analysts who monitor Apple’s sales and supply chain to weigh in on the next iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果对即将发生的事情守口如瓶。公司发言人拒绝对未来的产品发表评论。但iPhone生产往往是一项漏洞百出的业务，我请监控苹果销售和供应链的分析师对下一代iPhone进行权衡。</blockquote></p><p> First, what will it be called? The iPhone 13? It’s a likely bet, since Apple skipped the iPhone 11S and went right to the 12.</p><p><blockquote>首先，它会叫什么？iPhone 13？这是一个可能的赌注，因为苹果跳过了iPhone 11S，直接进入了12。</blockquote></p><p> Some have hypothesized Apple might steer clear of the number because of superstition, the way some skyscrapers skip a 13th floor.A survey&nbsp;of 3,000 Apple users by Sell Cell, a used-electronics vendor, found that 18% would be put off by an iPhone 13. But Apple hasn’t shied away from naming software iOS 13 or selling a 13-inch MacBook.</p><p><blockquote>一些人假设苹果可能会因为迷信而避开这个数字，就像一些摩天大楼跳过13层一样。二手电子产品供应商Sell Cell对3,000名苹果用户进行的一项调查发现，18%的人会因为iPhone而推迟13。但苹果并没有回避将软件命名为iOS 13或销售13英寸MacBook。</blockquote></p><p> Whether it’s iPhone 13, iPhone 12S, iPhone 2021 or even iPhone (15th generation), there will be several new models this year. Here’s what you can expect from the coming device:</p><p><blockquote>无论是iPhone 13、iPhone 12S、iPhone 2021甚至iPhone（15代），今年都会有几款新机型出现。以下是您对即将推出的设备的期望：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Modest Changes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>适度变化</b></blockquote></p><p> “We’re in the 5G chapter of the iPhone, which is a multiyear chapter,” said Gene Munster, a managing partner and Apple analyst with venture-capital firm Loup Ventures. “It’s going to be pretty modest over years two and three.”</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司Loup Ventures的管理合伙人兼苹果分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)表示：“我们正处于iPhone的5G篇章，这是一个多年的篇章。”“第二年和第三年的情况会相当温和。”</blockquote></p><p> Last year was&nbsp;significant for the device. The iPhone 12 models—the first to support faster 5G cellular networks—got a redesign and gained two new sizes in&nbsp;the Mini&nbsp;and&nbsp;Pro Max. Apple typically follows a big update with a less noteworthy release. Mr. Munster said we’ll see incremental improvements: a faster processor, longer battery life and camera upgrades.</p><p><blockquote>去年对于该设备来说意义重大。iPhone 12机型是第一款支持更快5G蜂窝网络的机型，它进行了重新设计，并在Mini和Pro Max中增加了两种新尺寸。苹果通常会在一次大更新后发布一个不太值得注意的版本。蒙斯特先生说，我们将看到渐进式的改进：更快的处理器、更长的电池寿命和相机升级。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6147bbb135ac38b417c4707fb0f9b78\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Last year iPhone 12 models—the first to support faster 5G cellular networks—got a redesign and gained two new sizes.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>去年，iPhone 12机型（第一款支持更快5G蜂窝网络的机型）进行了重新设计，并增加了两种新尺寸。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Camera Improvements</b></p><p><blockquote><b>相机改进</b></blockquote></p><p> “There’s a pretty healthy set of rumors about the camera, which are true,” he said. “I believe that this will be Apple’s selling point this time around.”</p><p><blockquote>“关于这款相机有一系列相当健康的谣言，这些都是真的，”他说。“我相信这将是苹果这次的卖点。”</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Munster pointed to a&nbsp;Bloomberg story&nbsp;that reports the camera on the higher-end Pro and Pro Max models could support Portrait mode (where the background is artfully blurred) when shooting video, as well as a higher-quality video format. High-end&nbsp;Samsung&nbsp;Galaxy phones have been able to shoot portrait mode during video—called Video Live Focus—since 2019, with the Samsung Galaxy S10 5G.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特先生指出，彭博社的一篇报道称，高端Pro和Pro Max型号上的相机在拍摄视频时可以支持人像模式（背景被巧妙地模糊）以及更高质量的视频格式。自2019年以来，高端三星Galaxy手机已经能够在视频期间拍摄人像模式，称为视频实时对焦，三星Galaxy S10 5G。</blockquote></p><p> <b>One More Mini</b></p><p><blockquote><b>再来一个迷你</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple saw lackluster sales of the iPhone 12 Mini, which has a 5.4-inch screen.Counterpoint Intelligence Research Partners&nbsp;estimates that the Mini made up just 5% of total iPhone 12 sales in the quarter ending June 2021.Trendforce, a market research firm, reported that Apple halted iPhone 12 mini production.</p><p><blockquote>苹果5.4英寸屏幕的iPhone 12 mini销量低迷。Counterpoint Intelligence Research Partners估计，截至2021年6月的季度，mini仅占iPhone 12总销量的5%。市场研究公司Trendforce据报道，苹果停止了iPhone 12 mini的生产。</blockquote></p><p> However, Mr. Munster believes that we’ll see another Mini this year. “It’s a niche, but people in that niche tend to like them,” he said. This was welcome news to me. I happen to be in that niche—though I do think the small phone’s battery life could be much better.</p><p><blockquote>然而，明斯特先生相信今年我们会看到另一款Mini。“这是一个利基市场，但该利基市场的人们往往喜欢它们，”他说。这对我来说是个好消息。我碰巧在那个利基市场——尽管我确实认为小型手机的电池寿命可以更好。</blockquote></p><p> Adam Wears, an analyst at Juniper Research, agrees. He expects Apple will phase out the Mini in subsequent years, focusing instead on its standard and premium-tier Pro and Pro Max models, while the iPhone SE, with a 4.7-inch screen, becomes the lower-priced model.</p><p><blockquote>瞻博研究(Juniper Research)分析师亚当·韦尔斯(Adam Wears)对此表示同意。他预计苹果将在随后几年逐步淘汰Mini，转而专注于其标准和高端Pro和Pro Max型号，而配备4.7英寸屏幕的iPhone SE将成为价格较低的型号。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8c33d34b970f0851a8ee62ccb8497c9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Apple CEO Tim Cook showed off the iPhone 12 Pro in October 2020.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果首席执行官Tim Cook在2020年10月展示了iPhone 12 Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wider 5G Availability</b></p><p><blockquote><b>更广泛的5G可用性</b></blockquote></p><p> Mr. Wears also anticipates the next iPhone will expand the use of&nbsp;high-frequency millimeter-wave technology&nbsp;in handsets in more countries across Asia and Europe.</p><p><blockquote>Wears先生还预计，下一代iPhone将在亚洲和欧洲更多国家的手机中扩大高频毫米波技术的使用。</blockquote></p><p> The iPhone 12 globally supports the more conventional sub-6-gigahertz band, but the faster millimeter-wave antenna, which can’t travel long distances and is more susceptible to obstacles such as trees, is only available in iPhone models in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 12在全球范围内支持更传统的6千兆赫以下频段，但速度更快的毫米波天线无法长距离传播，更容易受到树木等障碍物的影响，仅在美国的iPhone机型中提供。</blockquote></p><p> Brian White, an analyst with Monness Crespi Hardt, agrees that the next iPhones will likely “further tap into this nascent global 5G ramp.”</p><p><blockquote>Monness Crespi Hardt分析师布莱恩·怀特(Brian White)也认为，下一代iPhone可能会“进一步利用这一新兴的全球5G增长”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shipping Delays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>运输延误</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple said it is affected by the disruption to the&nbsp;global supply of microprocessors. “We’re going to take it sort of one quarter at a time and, as you would guess, we’ll do everything we can to mitigate whatever set of circumstances we’re dealt,” Chief Executive Tim Cook told analysts during a public conference call last month.</p><p><blockquote>苹果表示，受到全球微处理器供应中断的影响。首席执行官蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)在一次会议上对分析师表示：“我们将一次处理一个季度，正如您所猜测的那样，我们将尽一切努力缓解我们面临的任何情况。”上个月的公开电话会议。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Mr. Munster said that while he expects the company to announce the phone in September with availability in October, he thinks most customers won’t receive devices until December.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特表示，虽然他预计该公司将在9月份发布这款手机，并在10月份上市，但他认为大多数客户要到12月份才能收到设备。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/881a288be0216567393e9fa6f1fc7f79\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Samsung recently announced two foldable devices: the Galaxy Z Flip3, left, and Galaxy Z Fold3.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>三星最近发布了两款可折叠设备：Galaxy Z Flip3（左）和Galaxy Z Fold3。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>No Foldable—Yet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还没有可折叠的</b></blockquote></p><p> “The chapter after 5G is foldable phones,” said Mr. Munster, who expects Apple to release that device in 2023. The competition in the space is heating up: Samsung recently announced two foldable devices, the&nbsp;Galaxy Z Fold3 and Galaxy Z Flip3. The former opens like a book and the latter works like an old-school flip phone, like the old Motorola Razr. The prediction that iPhones will eventually flip is reinforced by the fact that Samsung is one of Apple’s top display manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>“5G之后的篇章是可折叠手机，”蒙斯特先生说，他预计苹果将在2023年发布该设备。该领域的竞争正在升温：三星最近发布了两款可折叠设备，Galaxy Z Fold3和Galaxy Z Flip3。前者像一本书一样打开，后者像老式翻盖手机一样工作，就像旧的摩托罗拉Razr。三星是苹果顶级显示器制造商之一，这一事实强化了iPhones最终将翻转的预测。</blockquote></p><p> My colleague Joanna Stern found a pattern in Samsung and Apple releases. The iPhone maker typically incorporates features&nbsp;two to three years after Samsung. And if that timeline is any indication, the iPhone is soon due for an in-screen fingerprint reader and a screen with a faster 120-hertz refresh rate for smoother animations.</p><p><blockquote>我的同事Joanna Stern在三星和苹果的版本中发现了一种模式。这家iPhone制造商通常会在三星之后两到三年整合一些功能。如果这个时间表有任何迹象的话，iPhone很快就会配备屏内指纹识别器和更快的120赫兹刷新率的屏幕，以实现更流畅的动画。</blockquote></p><p> Joanna reported that Apple has been working on in-screen fingerprint technology and has considered including Touch ID and Face ID on the same device, according to two former Apple employees. It probably won’t appear this year, however.</p><p><blockquote>Joanna报道称，据两名苹果前员工透露，苹果一直在研究屏内指纹技术，并考虑将Touch ID和Face ID包含在同一设备上。然而，今年可能不会出现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What About Other Phones?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他手机呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> If you’re in the market for an upgrade, there are, of course, other options to consider.</p><p><blockquote>如果你想升级，当然还有其他选择可以考虑。</blockquote></p><p> Google already announced that its next Pixel 6 will run its own proprietary Google-designed chip and feature a new camera system. We’ll hear more details sometime this fall. Meanwhile, Samsung lowered the price of its recent foldables to $1,800 for the Fold ($200 less than its predecessor) and $1,000 for the smaller Flip (nearly $400 cheaper than last year’s model). And while&nbsp;the Galaxy S21is still probably the best overall Android purchase, Samsung will likely launch its next non-folding flagship Galaxy phones in early 2022.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌已经宣布，其下一代Pixel 6将运行谷歌设计的专有芯片，并采用新的相机系统。我们将在今年秋天的某个时候听到更多细节。与此同时，三星将其最新可折叠产品的价格降至1800美元（比前代产品便宜200美元），较小的Flip价格降至1000美元（比去年的型号便宜近400美元）。虽然Galaxy S21可能仍然是最好的Android产品，但三星可能会在2022年初推出下一款非折叠旗舰Galaxy手机。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/apples-next-iphone-is-coming-soon-heres-what-to-expect-11629032400?mod=hp_lead_pos10\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/apples-next-iphone-is-coming-soon-heres-what-to-expect-11629032400?mod=hp_lead_pos10","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111034903","content_text":"Analysts say camera improvements are the biggest changes hitting Apple’s coming smartphones. Otherwise, expect modest upgrades.\nAbout to buy a new iPhone?Don’t. We expect Apple to announce new models sometime next month, as it does every year. And even if you aren’t interested in the latest and greatest, the company generally drops the price of some older models along with the new crop.\nApple is, of course, hush-hush on what’s to come. A company spokeswoman declined to comment on future products. But iPhone production tends to be a leaky business, and I asked analysts who monitor Apple’s sales and supply chain to weigh in on the next iPhone.\nFirst, what will it be called? The iPhone 13? It’s a likely bet, since Apple skipped the iPhone 11S and went right to the 12.\nSome have hypothesized Apple might steer clear of the number because of superstition, the way some skyscrapers skip a 13th floor.A survey of 3,000 Apple users by Sell Cell, a used-electronics vendor, found that 18% would be put off by an iPhone 13. But Apple hasn’t shied away from naming software iOS 13 or selling a 13-inch MacBook.\nWhether it’s iPhone 13, iPhone 12S, iPhone 2021 or even iPhone (15th generation), there will be several new models this year. Here’s what you can expect from the coming device:\nModest Changes\n“We’re in the 5G chapter of the iPhone, which is a multiyear chapter,” said Gene Munster, a managing partner and Apple analyst with venture-capital firm Loup Ventures. “It’s going to be pretty modest over years two and three.”\nLast year was significant for the device. The iPhone 12 models—the first to support faster 5G cellular networks—got a redesign and gained two new sizes in the Mini and Pro Max. Apple typically follows a big update with a less noteworthy release. Mr. Munster said we’ll see incremental improvements: a faster processor, longer battery life and camera upgrades.\nLast year iPhone 12 models—the first to support faster 5G cellular networks—got a redesign and gained two new sizes.\nCamera Improvements\n“There’s a pretty healthy set of rumors about the camera, which are true,” he said. “I believe that this will be Apple’s selling point this time around.”\nMr. Munster pointed to a Bloomberg story that reports the camera on the higher-end Pro and Pro Max models could support Portrait mode (where the background is artfully blurred) when shooting video, as well as a higher-quality video format. High-end Samsung Galaxy phones have been able to shoot portrait mode during video—called Video Live Focus—since 2019, with the Samsung Galaxy S10 5G.\nOne More Mini\nApple saw lackluster sales of the iPhone 12 Mini, which has a 5.4-inch screen.Counterpoint Intelligence Research Partners estimates that the Mini made up just 5% of total iPhone 12 sales in the quarter ending June 2021.Trendforce, a market research firm, reported that Apple halted iPhone 12 mini production.\nHowever, Mr. Munster believes that we’ll see another Mini this year. “It’s a niche, but people in that niche tend to like them,” he said. This was welcome news to me. I happen to be in that niche—though I do think the small phone’s battery life could be much better.\nAdam Wears, an analyst at Juniper Research, agrees. He expects Apple will phase out the Mini in subsequent years, focusing instead on its standard and premium-tier Pro and Pro Max models, while the iPhone SE, with a 4.7-inch screen, becomes the lower-priced model.\nApple CEO Tim Cook showed off the iPhone 12 Pro in October 2020.\nWider 5G Availability\nMr. Wears also anticipates the next iPhone will expand the use of high-frequency millimeter-wave technology in handsets in more countries across Asia and Europe.\nThe iPhone 12 globally supports the more conventional sub-6-gigahertz band, but the faster millimeter-wave antenna, which can’t travel long distances and is more susceptible to obstacles such as trees, is only available in iPhone models in the U.S.\nBrian White, an analyst with Monness Crespi Hardt, agrees that the next iPhones will likely “further tap into this nascent global 5G ramp.”\nShipping Delays\nApple said it is affected by the disruption to the global supply of microprocessors. “We’re going to take it sort of one quarter at a time and, as you would guess, we’ll do everything we can to mitigate whatever set of circumstances we’re dealt,” Chief Executive Tim Cook told analysts during a public conference call last month.\nMr. Munster said that while he expects the company to announce the phone in September with availability in October, he thinks most customers won’t receive devices until December.\nSamsung recently announced two foldable devices: the Galaxy Z Flip3, left, and Galaxy Z Fold3.\nNo Foldable—Yet\n“The chapter after 5G is foldable phones,” said Mr. Munster, who expects Apple to release that device in 2023. The competition in the space is heating up: Samsung recently announced two foldable devices, the Galaxy Z Fold3 and Galaxy Z Flip3. The former opens like a book and the latter works like an old-school flip phone, like the old Motorola Razr. The prediction that iPhones will eventually flip is reinforced by the fact that Samsung is one of Apple’s top display manufacturers.\nMy colleague Joanna Stern found a pattern in Samsung and Apple releases. The iPhone maker typically incorporates features two to three years after Samsung. And if that timeline is any indication, the iPhone is soon due for an in-screen fingerprint reader and a screen with a faster 120-hertz refresh rate for smoother animations.\nJoanna reported that Apple has been working on in-screen fingerprint technology and has considered including Touch ID and Face ID on the same device, according to two former Apple employees. It probably won’t appear this year, however.\nWhat About Other Phones?\nIf you’re in the market for an upgrade, there are, of course, other options to consider.\nGoogle already announced that its next Pixel 6 will run its own proprietary Google-designed chip and feature a new camera system. We’ll hear more details sometime this fall. Meanwhile, Samsung lowered the price of its recent foldables to $1,800 for the Fold ($200 less than its predecessor) and $1,000 for the smaller Flip (nearly $400 cheaper than last year’s model). And while the Galaxy S21is still probably the best overall Android purchase, Samsung will likely launch its next non-folding flagship Galaxy phones in early 2022.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839381625,"gmtCreate":1629122331967,"gmtModify":1631890264849,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839381625","repostId":"1163741094","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163741094","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1629100856,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163741094?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 16:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Watch For These New Product Launches From Apple This Fall: Mark Gurman<blockquote>关注苹果今年秋季推出的这些新产品：Mark Gurman</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163741094","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Apple is preparing to launch several new products this fall, including new iPhones, Apple Watches, u","content":"<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a></b> is preparing to launch several new products this fall, including new&nbsp;<b>iPhones</b>,&nbsp;<b>Apple Watches</b>, updated&nbsp;<b>AirPods</b>, the revamped&nbsp;<b>iPad mini</b>&nbsp;and redesigned&nbsp;<b>MacBook Pros</b>, according to&nbsp;<b>Mark Gurman</b>, a leading Apple watcher.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a></b>正准备在今年秋季推出几款新产品，包括新<b>iPhone</b>, <b>苹果手表</b>，已更新<b>AirPods</b>，改造后的<b>iPad mini</b>并重新设计<b>MacBook Pro</b>，根据<b>马克·古尔曼</b>一位著名的苹果观察家。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>&nbsp;Apple will hold multiple events this year, with the first event likely in September, Gurmansaidin the latest edition of his “Power On” newsletter for Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>苹果今年将举办多场活动，第一场活动可能在9月举行，古尔曼赛在他为彭博社撰写的最新一期“Power On”时事通讯中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Alongside the new iPhone 13 expected to be launched in September, Apple will likely launch third-generation AirPods, an updated iPad mini with thinner borders and complete redesign, and the Apple Watch Series 7 with updated screen technology and a faster processor.</p><p><blockquote>除了预计将于9月推出的新款iPhone 13，苹果还可能推出第三代AirPods、边框更薄、完全重新设计的更新iPad mini，以及采用更新屏幕技术和更快处理器的苹果Watch Series 7。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, Gurman noted that Apple’s revamped 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros with the company's in-house M1X chip “should still go on sale by the time the current MacBook Pro hits its two-year anniversary.”</p><p><blockquote>此外，Gurman指出，苹果改进后的14英寸和16英寸MacBook Pro采用该公司内部M1X芯片，“在当前的MacBook Pro两周年纪念日之前应该仍会上市销售”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Matters:</b>&nbsp;Apple’s highly anticipated MacBook Pros are expected to feature mini-LED displays, updated designs, and the M1X Apple silicon chip. The 16-inch MacBook Pro was last updated in November of 2019.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么重要：</b>苹果备受期待的MacBook Pros预计将采用迷你LED显示屏、更新的设计和M1X苹果硅芯片。16英寸MacBook Pro最后一次更新是在2019年11月。</blockquote></p><p> It was&nbsp;reported&nbsp;earlier this year that Apple is planning a major design upgrade to its MacBook Pro range of notebooks for the first time since the 2016 lineup. The new Pro series computers will come equipped with Apple’s own chips instead of the ones made by&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a></b>&nbsp;<b>Corporation</b>.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候有报道称，苹果正计划对其MacBook Pro系列笔记本电脑进行重大设计升级，这是自2016年阵容以来的首次。新的Pro系列电脑将配备苹果自己的芯片，而不是由<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a></b> <b>公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> In June, Gurman&nbsp;noted&nbsp;that Apple is exploring making future iPads with larger displays that would further blur the lines between the iPad Pro and the MacBook Pro, which is available with up to a 16-inch display.</p><p><blockquote>今年6月，古尔曼指出，苹果正在探索制造具有更大显示屏的未来iPad，这将进一步模糊iPad Pro和MacBook Pro之间的界限，MacBook Pro的显示屏高达16英寸。</blockquote></p><p> Apple had said in April it hasno plans to mergethe iPad and the Mac anytime soon, despite the inclusion of its in-house M1 chip in the latest iPad Pro models.</p><p><blockquote>苹果曾在4月份表示，尽管最新的iPad Pro型号中包含了其内部M1芯片，但它没有计划在短期内合并iPad和Mac。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;Apple shares closed 0.1% higher in Friday’s trading at $149.10.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势：</b>苹果股价周五收盘上涨0.1%，至149.10美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Watch For These New Product Launches From Apple This Fall: Mark Gurman<blockquote>关注苹果今年秋季推出的这些新产品：Mark Gurman</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWatch For These New Product Launches From Apple This Fall: Mark Gurman<blockquote>关注苹果今年秋季推出的这些新产品：Mark Gurman</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-16 16:00</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a></b> is preparing to launch several new products this fall, including new&nbsp;<b>iPhones</b>,&nbsp;<b>Apple Watches</b>, updated&nbsp;<b>AirPods</b>, the revamped&nbsp;<b>iPad mini</b>&nbsp;and redesigned&nbsp;<b>MacBook Pros</b>, according to&nbsp;<b>Mark Gurman</b>, a leading Apple watcher.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a></b>正准备在今年秋季推出几款新产品，包括新<b>iPhone</b>, <b>苹果手表</b>，已更新<b>AirPods</b>，改造后的<b>iPad mini</b>并重新设计<b>MacBook Pro</b>，根据<b>马克·古尔曼</b>一位著名的苹果观察家。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>&nbsp;Apple will hold multiple events this year, with the first event likely in September, Gurmansaidin the latest edition of his “Power On” newsletter for Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>苹果今年将举办多场活动，第一场活动可能在9月举行，古尔曼赛在他为彭博社撰写的最新一期“Power On”时事通讯中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Alongside the new iPhone 13 expected to be launched in September, Apple will likely launch third-generation AirPods, an updated iPad mini with thinner borders and complete redesign, and the Apple Watch Series 7 with updated screen technology and a faster processor.</p><p><blockquote>除了预计将于9月推出的新款iPhone 13，苹果还可能推出第三代AirPods、边框更薄、完全重新设计的更新iPad mini，以及采用更新屏幕技术和更快处理器的苹果Watch Series 7。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, Gurman noted that Apple’s revamped 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros with the company's in-house M1X chip “should still go on sale by the time the current MacBook Pro hits its two-year anniversary.”</p><p><blockquote>此外，Gurman指出，苹果改进后的14英寸和16英寸MacBook Pro采用该公司内部M1X芯片，“在当前的MacBook Pro两周年纪念日之前应该仍会上市销售”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Matters:</b>&nbsp;Apple’s highly anticipated MacBook Pros are expected to feature mini-LED displays, updated designs, and the M1X Apple silicon chip. The 16-inch MacBook Pro was last updated in November of 2019.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么重要：</b>苹果备受期待的MacBook Pros预计将采用迷你LED显示屏、更新的设计和M1X苹果硅芯片。16英寸MacBook Pro最后一次更新是在2019年11月。</blockquote></p><p> It was&nbsp;reported&nbsp;earlier this year that Apple is planning a major design upgrade to its MacBook Pro range of notebooks for the first time since the 2016 lineup. The new Pro series computers will come equipped with Apple’s own chips instead of the ones made by&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a></b>&nbsp;<b>Corporation</b>.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候有报道称，苹果正计划对其MacBook Pro系列笔记本电脑进行重大设计升级，这是自2016年阵容以来的首次。新的Pro系列电脑将配备苹果自己的芯片，而不是由<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a></b> <b>公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> In June, Gurman&nbsp;noted&nbsp;that Apple is exploring making future iPads with larger displays that would further blur the lines between the iPad Pro and the MacBook Pro, which is available with up to a 16-inch display.</p><p><blockquote>今年6月，古尔曼指出，苹果正在探索制造具有更大显示屏的未来iPad，这将进一步模糊iPad Pro和MacBook Pro之间的界限，MacBook Pro的显示屏高达16英寸。</blockquote></p><p> Apple had said in April it hasno plans to mergethe iPad and the Mac anytime soon, despite the inclusion of its in-house M1 chip in the latest iPad Pro models.</p><p><blockquote>苹果曾在4月份表示，尽管最新的iPad Pro型号中包含了其内部M1芯片，但它没有计划在短期内合并iPad和Mac。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;Apple shares closed 0.1% higher in Friday’s trading at $149.10.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势：</b>苹果股价周五收盘上涨0.1%，至149.10美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163741094","content_text":"Apple is preparing to launch several new products this fall, including new iPhones, Apple Watches, updated AirPods, the revamped iPad mini and redesigned MacBook Pros, according to Mark Gurman, a leading Apple watcher.\nWhat Happened: Apple will hold multiple events this year, with the first event likely in September, Gurmansaidin the latest edition of his “Power On” newsletter for Bloomberg.\nAlongside the new iPhone 13 expected to be launched in September, Apple will likely launch third-generation AirPods, an updated iPad mini with thinner borders and complete redesign, and the Apple Watch Series 7 with updated screen technology and a faster processor.\nIn addition, Gurman noted that Apple’s revamped 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros with the company's in-house M1X chip “should still go on sale by the time the current MacBook Pro hits its two-year anniversary.”\nWhy It Matters: Apple’s highly anticipated MacBook Pros are expected to feature mini-LED displays, updated designs, and the M1X Apple silicon chip. The 16-inch MacBook Pro was last updated in November of 2019.\nIt was reported earlier this year that Apple is planning a major design upgrade to its MacBook Pro range of notebooks for the first time since the 2016 lineup. The new Pro series computers will come equipped with Apple’s own chips instead of the ones made by Intel Corporation.\nIn June, Gurman noted that Apple is exploring making future iPads with larger displays that would further blur the lines between the iPad Pro and the MacBook Pro, which is available with up to a 16-inch display.\nApple had said in April it hasno plans to mergethe iPad and the Mac anytime soon, despite the inclusion of its in-house M1 chip in the latest iPad Pro models.\nPrice Action: Apple shares closed 0.1% higher in Friday’s trading at $149.10.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890967756,"gmtCreate":1628077816775,"gmtModify":1631890264852,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice run","listText":"Nice run","text":"Nice run","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890967756","repostId":"1184521901","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184521901","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1628070314,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184521901?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 17:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Is Fueling The AMD Rally?<blockquote>是什么推动了AMD的反弹？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184521901","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD extended gains to a fifth straight day and closed 3.6% hig","content":"<p>Shares of&nbsp;<b>Advanced Micro Devices Inc.</b>&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a></b>&nbsp;extended gains to a fifth straight day and closed 3.6% higher in Tuesday’s regular trading session.</p><p><blockquote>本公司之股份<b>先进微设备公司。</b> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a></b>连续第五天上涨，周二常规交易时段收盘上涨3.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened</b>: Advanced Micro Devices shares also hit a new 52-week high of $114.85 on Tuesday after the chipmakerannouncedthe availability of its new AMD Radeon PRO W6000X series GPUs for&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc.’s</b>&nbsp;Mac Pro desktop computers.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b>：在芯片制造商Advanced Micro Devices宣布推出新款AMD Radeon PRO W6000X系列GPU后，该公司股价周二也创下52周新高114.85美元<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司的</b>Mac Pro台式电脑。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, the company’s shares likely benefited after Bloombergreportedthat UK regulators may block rival chipmaker<b>Nvidia Corp.’s</b>NVDA$40 billion acquisition of UK-based chipmaker Arm Ltd. due to national security concerns.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在彭博社报道英国监管机构可能阻止竞争对手芯片制造商后，该公司股价可能受益<b>英伟达公司的</b>出于国家安全考虑，NVDA以400亿美元收购英国芯片制造商Arm Ltd.。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Momentum From <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a> Results:</b>&nbsp;AMD’s shares have been picked up momentum after the companyreportedbetter-than-expected second-quarter results last week.</p><p><blockquote><b>动量来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a>结果：</b>AMD上周公布好于预期的第二季度业绩后，该公司股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Retail Interest:</b>&nbsp;AMD is seeinghigh interestfrom retail investors and was the third-most discussed stock on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum as of Tuesday night. The forum, which has 10.7 million users, is best known for driving the rally in&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a> Corp.</b>&nbsp;and other heavily shorted stocks earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>零售权益：</b>AMD引起了散户投资者的高度兴趣，截至周二晚上，AMD是Reddit r/WallStreetBets论坛上讨论次数第三多的股票。该论坛拥有1070万用户，以推动集会而闻名<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>公司。</b>以及今年早些时候被严重做空的其他股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a> Production Woes</b>: In June, CNBC host Cramernotedthat&nbsp;<b>Intel Corp.</b>&nbsp;delaying production of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of its newest chips, code-named Sapphire Rapids, was “another reason” to buy shares in AMD. The delay by Intel is seen as creating an opportunity for AMD to gain market share.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>生产困境</b>：6月，CNBC主持人克莱默指出<b>英特尔公司。</b>延迟生产<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>其代号为Sapphire Rapids的最新芯片是购买AMD股票的“另一个原因”。英特尔的延迟被视为为AMD获得市场份额创造了机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>High-Profile <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CUBI\">Customers</a></b>: AMD&nbsp;secured&nbsp;<b>Tesla Inc</b>.and<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.</b>&nbsp;subsidiary Google as its high-profile customers in June.</p><p><blockquote><b>高调<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CUBI\">客户</a></b>：AMD安全<b>特斯拉公司</b>.和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>公司。</b>子公司谷歌在6月份成为其备受瞩目的客户。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action</b>: Advanced Micro Devices shares closed 3.6% higher in Tuesday’s regular trading session at $112.56.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为</b>：Advanced Micro Devices股价在周二常规交易时段收盘上涨3.6%，至112.56美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Is Fueling The AMD Rally?<blockquote>是什么推动了AMD的反弹？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Is Fueling The AMD Rally?<blockquote>是什么推动了AMD的反弹？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-04 17:45</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of&nbsp;<b>Advanced Micro Devices Inc.</b>&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a></b>&nbsp;extended gains to a fifth straight day and closed 3.6% higher in Tuesday’s regular trading session.</p><p><blockquote>本公司之股份<b>先进微设备公司。</b> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a></b>连续第五天上涨，周二常规交易时段收盘上涨3.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened</b>: Advanced Micro Devices shares also hit a new 52-week high of $114.85 on Tuesday after the chipmakerannouncedthe availability of its new AMD Radeon PRO W6000X series GPUs for&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc.’s</b>&nbsp;Mac Pro desktop computers.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b>：在芯片制造商Advanced Micro Devices宣布推出新款AMD Radeon PRO W6000X系列GPU后，该公司股价周二也创下52周新高114.85美元<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司的</b>Mac Pro台式电脑。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, the company’s shares likely benefited after Bloombergreportedthat UK regulators may block rival chipmaker<b>Nvidia Corp.’s</b>NVDA$40 billion acquisition of UK-based chipmaker Arm Ltd. due to national security concerns.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在彭博社报道英国监管机构可能阻止竞争对手芯片制造商后，该公司股价可能受益<b>英伟达公司的</b>出于国家安全考虑，NVDA以400亿美元收购英国芯片制造商Arm Ltd.。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Momentum From <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a> Results:</b>&nbsp;AMD’s shares have been picked up momentum after the companyreportedbetter-than-expected second-quarter results last week.</p><p><blockquote><b>动量来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a>结果：</b>AMD上周公布好于预期的第二季度业绩后，该公司股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Retail Interest:</b>&nbsp;AMD is seeinghigh interestfrom retail investors and was the third-most discussed stock on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum as of Tuesday night. The forum, which has 10.7 million users, is best known for driving the rally in&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a> Corp.</b>&nbsp;and other heavily shorted stocks earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>零售权益：</b>AMD引起了散户投资者的高度兴趣，截至周二晚上，AMD是Reddit r/WallStreetBets论坛上讨论次数第三多的股票。该论坛拥有1070万用户，以推动集会而闻名<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>公司。</b>以及今年早些时候被严重做空的其他股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a> Production Woes</b>: In June, CNBC host Cramernotedthat&nbsp;<b>Intel Corp.</b>&nbsp;delaying production of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of its newest chips, code-named Sapphire Rapids, was “another reason” to buy shares in AMD. The delay by Intel is seen as creating an opportunity for AMD to gain market share.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>生产困境</b>：6月，CNBC主持人克莱默指出<b>英特尔公司。</b>延迟生产<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>其代号为Sapphire Rapids的最新芯片是购买AMD股票的“另一个原因”。英特尔的延迟被视为为AMD获得市场份额创造了机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>High-Profile <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CUBI\">Customers</a></b>: AMD&nbsp;secured&nbsp;<b>Tesla Inc</b>.and<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.</b>&nbsp;subsidiary Google as its high-profile customers in June.</p><p><blockquote><b>高调<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CUBI\">客户</a></b>：AMD安全<b>特斯拉公司</b>.和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>公司。</b>子公司谷歌在6月份成为其备受瞩目的客户。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action</b>: Advanced Micro Devices shares closed 3.6% higher in Tuesday’s regular trading session at $112.56.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为</b>：Advanced Micro Devices股价在周二常规交易时段收盘上涨3.6%，至112.56美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184521901","content_text":"Shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD extended gains to a fifth straight day and closed 3.6% higher in Tuesday’s regular trading session.\nWhat Happened: Advanced Micro Devices shares also hit a new 52-week high of $114.85 on Tuesday after the chipmakerannouncedthe availability of its new AMD Radeon PRO W6000X series GPUs for Apple Inc.’s Mac Pro desktop computers.\nIn addition, the company’s shares likely benefited after Bloombergreportedthat UK regulators may block rival chipmakerNvidia Corp.’sNVDA$40 billion acquisition of UK-based chipmaker Arm Ltd. due to national security concerns.\nMomentum From Q2 Results: AMD’s shares have been picked up momentum after the companyreportedbetter-than-expected second-quarter results last week.\nRetail Interest: AMD is seeinghigh interestfrom retail investors and was the third-most discussed stock on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum as of Tuesday night. The forum, which has 10.7 million users, is best known for driving the rally in GameStop Corp. and other heavily shorted stocks earlier this year.\nIntel Production Woes: In June, CNBC host Cramernotedthat Intel Corp. delaying production of one of its newest chips, code-named Sapphire Rapids, was “another reason” to buy shares in AMD. The delay by Intel is seen as creating an opportunity for AMD to gain market share.\nHigh-Profile Customers: AMD secured Tesla Inc.andAlphabet Inc. subsidiary Google as its high-profile customers in June.\nPrice Action: Advanced Micro Devices shares closed 3.6% higher in Tuesday’s regular trading session at $112.56.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802992718,"gmtCreate":1627704252534,"gmtModify":1631890264854,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It would be an incredible merger if it happens","listText":"It would be an incredible merger if it happens","text":"It would be an incredible merger if it happens","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802992718","repostId":"2155492152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808342173,"gmtCreate":1627561065492,"gmtModify":1631890264859,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice [Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"Nice [Strong]&nbsp;","text":"Nice 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3560241002253187\">@CL777</a>:Not again","listText":"[Drowsy]&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3560241002253187\">@CL777</a>:Not again","text":"[Drowsy] //@CL777:Not again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175784570","repostId":"2153670096","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179122223,"gmtCreate":1626495083562,"gmtModify":1631893324112,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179122223","repostId":"2152168594","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147536941,"gmtCreate":1626362895183,"gmtModify":1631886131915,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Netflix and game [Observation]&nbsp;","listText":"Netflix and game [Observation]&nbsp;","text":"Netflix and game [Observation]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147536941","repostId":"1142346792","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144962168,"gmtCreate":1626262327954,"gmtModify":1631893324125,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not only overbought, it’s “extremely overbought” [Observation]&nbsp;","listText":"Not only overbought, it’s “extremely overbought” [Observation]&nbsp;","text":"Not only overbought, it’s “extremely overbought” [Observation]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144962168","repostId":"1160878205","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145595703,"gmtCreate":1626228766902,"gmtModify":1631893324143,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"High to enter now","listText":"High to enter now","text":"High to enter now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145595703","repostId":"1122284181","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122284181","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626221830,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122284181?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 08:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cramer: The News About Apple Is All Wrong<blockquote>克莱默：有关苹果的消息都是错误的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122284181","media":"The Street","summary":"Jim Cramer writes on Real Money that banking on what commentators have to say about Apple is not the","content":"<p>  Jim Cramer writes on Real Money that banking on what commentators have to say about Apple is not the way to make bank on Apple.  Apple&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is one of the news media’s favorite companies to scrutinize, something which can provide as much confusion as clarity to investors, TheStreet’s Jim Cramer explained in a recent Real Money column.</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·克莱默（Jim Cramer）在《真钱》（Real Money）上写道，依靠评论员对苹果的看法并不是依靠苹果赚钱的方式。苹果(<b>AAPL</b>)-《华尔街日报》的吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)在最近的《真钱》专栏中解释说，Get Report是新闻媒体最喜欢审查的公司之一，这可能会给投资者带来混乱和清晰。</blockquote></p><p> Cramer looked at how and why many investors missed the opportunity to buy Apple at its bottom price of $116 in March but now are buying at higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默研究了许多投资者如何以及为什么错过了在3月份以116美元的最低价买入苹果的机会，但现在却以更高的价格买入。</blockquote></p><p> Apple shares are up nearly 10% in the past three months, and ended last week at $145.11</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价过去三个月上涨近10%，上周收于145.11美元</blockquote></p><p> “Stunned that suddenly people are buying the breakout of the stock, I decided to go back and look at the breakdown to see if you could have spotted a bottom, the opportunity of the year to buy the stock of this amazing company when it was falling off a cliff,” Cramer wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“我对人们突然买入该股的突破感到震惊，我决定回去看看分解情况，看看你是否能发现底部，这是今年在这家令人惊叹的公司的股票下跌时买入的机会从悬崖上掉下来，”克莱默写道。</blockquote></p><p> Cramer found that the media focus on unconfirmed reports about issues such as order volume, combined with the enigmatic nature of Apple itself, helped create confusion and doubt about a company whose stock was actually about to rise.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默发现，媒体关注有关订单量等问题的未经证实的报道，加上苹果本身的神秘性质，导致人们对一家股票实际上即将上涨的公司产生困惑和怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> “Here are some sample headlines from some important publications on the day it hit bottom: ‘Apple falls toward 3-month low, bear market now in sight.’ Or how about this one: ‘Apple's stock in danger of lowest close since November,’” Cramer wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“以下是一些重要出版物在触底当天的一些标题样本：‘苹果跌至3个月低点，熊市在望。’或者这个怎么样：‘苹果的股票面临11月以来最低收盘价的危险，’”克莱默写道。</blockquote></p><p> Cramer looks at how numerous commentators missed the signs of opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默着眼于许多评论家是如何错过机会的迹象的。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple is famous for not allowing companies to talk about orders or business done with the company, something that makes it difficult to figure out how the company is doing, at least according to suppliers. But that doesn't stop the press from trying,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“苹果以不允许公司谈论订单或与该公司完成的业务而闻名，这使得很难弄清楚该公司的表现，至少根据供应商的说法是这样。但这并不能阻止媒体的尝试，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p> He suggests that banking on what commentators say is not the way to make bank on Apple.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，依靠评论员的说法并不是依靠苹果赚钱的方法。</blockquote></p><p> “What matters is this: You got an opportunity. However, it was so hard to take that it is a constant reminder that it is not worth trading Apple around different commentary and so-called news. Better to just, like always, own the stock,” Cramer wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“重要的是：你有一个机会。然而，这是如此难以接受，以至于它不断提醒人们，不值得围绕不同的评论和所谓的新闻进行苹果交易。最好像往常一样，拥有股票，”克莱默写道。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cramer: The News About Apple Is All Wrong<blockquote>克莱默：有关苹果的消息都是错误的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCramer: The News About Apple Is All Wrong<blockquote>克莱默：有关苹果的消息都是错误的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-14 08:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Jim Cramer writes on Real Money that banking on what commentators have to say about Apple is not the way to make bank on Apple.  Apple&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is one of the news media’s favorite companies to scrutinize, something which can provide as much confusion as clarity to investors, TheStreet’s Jim Cramer explained in a recent Real Money column.</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·克莱默（Jim Cramer）在《真钱》（Real Money）上写道，依靠评论员对苹果的看法并不是依靠苹果赚钱的方式。苹果(<b>AAPL</b>)-《华尔街日报》的吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)在最近的《真钱》专栏中解释说，Get Report是新闻媒体最喜欢审查的公司之一，这可能会给投资者带来混乱和清晰。</blockquote></p><p> Cramer looked at how and why many investors missed the opportunity to buy Apple at its bottom price of $116 in March but now are buying at higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默研究了许多投资者如何以及为什么错过了在3月份以116美元的最低价买入苹果的机会，但现在却以更高的价格买入。</blockquote></p><p> Apple shares are up nearly 10% in the past three months, and ended last week at $145.11</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价过去三个月上涨近10%，上周收于145.11美元</blockquote></p><p> “Stunned that suddenly people are buying the breakout of the stock, I decided to go back and look at the breakdown to see if you could have spotted a bottom, the opportunity of the year to buy the stock of this amazing company when it was falling off a cliff,” Cramer wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“我对人们突然买入该股的突破感到震惊，我决定回去看看分解情况，看看你是否能发现底部，这是今年在这家令人惊叹的公司的股票下跌时买入的机会从悬崖上掉下来，”克莱默写道。</blockquote></p><p> Cramer found that the media focus on unconfirmed reports about issues such as order volume, combined with the enigmatic nature of Apple itself, helped create confusion and doubt about a company whose stock was actually about to rise.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默发现，媒体关注有关订单量等问题的未经证实的报道，加上苹果本身的神秘性质，导致人们对一家股票实际上即将上涨的公司产生困惑和怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> “Here are some sample headlines from some important publications on the day it hit bottom: ‘Apple falls toward 3-month low, bear market now in sight.’ Or how about this one: ‘Apple's stock in danger of lowest close since November,’” Cramer wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“以下是一些重要出版物在触底当天的一些标题样本：‘苹果跌至3个月低点，熊市在望。’或者这个怎么样：‘苹果的股票面临11月以来最低收盘价的危险，’”克莱默写道。</blockquote></p><p> Cramer looks at how numerous commentators missed the signs of opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默着眼于许多评论家是如何错过机会的迹象的。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple is famous for not allowing companies to talk about orders or business done with the company, something that makes it difficult to figure out how the company is doing, at least according to suppliers. But that doesn't stop the press from trying,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“苹果以不允许公司谈论订单或与该公司完成的业务而闻名，这使得很难弄清楚该公司的表现，至少根据供应商的说法是这样。但这并不能阻止媒体的尝试，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p> He suggests that banking on what commentators say is not the way to make bank on Apple.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，依靠评论员的说法并不是依靠苹果赚钱的方法。</blockquote></p><p> “What matters is this: You got an opportunity. However, it was so hard to take that it is a constant reminder that it is not worth trading Apple around different commentary and so-called news. Better to just, like always, own the stock,” Cramer wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“重要的是：你有一个机会。然而，这是如此难以接受，以至于它不断提醒人们，不值得围绕不同的评论和所谓的新闻进行苹果交易。最好像往常一样，拥有股票，”克莱默写道。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/cramer-the-news-about-apple-is-all-wrong\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/cramer-the-news-about-apple-is-all-wrong","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122284181","content_text":"Jim Cramer writes on Real Money that banking on what commentators have to say about Apple is not the way to make bank on Apple.\n\nApple (AAPL) -Get Report is one of the news media’s favorite companies to scrutinize, something which can provide as much confusion as clarity to investors, TheStreet’s Jim Cramer explained in a recent Real Money column.\nCramer looked at how and why many investors missed the opportunity to buy Apple at its bottom price of $116 in March but now are buying at higher prices.\nApple shares are up nearly 10% in the past three months, and ended last week at $145.11\n“Stunned that suddenly people are buying the breakout of the stock, I decided to go back and look at the breakdown to see if you could have spotted a bottom, the opportunity of the year to buy the stock of this amazing company when it was falling off a cliff,” Cramer wrote.\nCramer found that the media focus on unconfirmed reports about issues such as order volume, combined with the enigmatic nature of Apple itself, helped create confusion and doubt about a company whose stock was actually about to rise.\n“Here are some sample headlines from some important publications on the day it hit bottom: ‘Apple falls toward 3-month low, bear market now in sight.’ Or how about this one: ‘Apple's stock in danger of lowest close since November,’” Cramer wrote.\nCramer looks at how numerous commentators missed the signs of opportunity.\n“Apple is famous for not allowing companies to talk about orders or business done with the company, something that makes it difficult to figure out how the company is doing, at least according to suppliers. But that doesn't stop the press from trying,” he wrote.\nHe suggests that banking on what commentators say is not the way to make bank on Apple.\n“What matters is this: You got an opportunity. However, it was so hard to take that it is a constant reminder that it is not worth trading Apple around different commentary and so-called news. Better to just, like always, own the stock,” Cramer wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148242598,"gmtCreate":1625982845014,"gmtModify":1631893324155,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148242598","repostId":"1101087642","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148246971,"gmtCreate":1625982715493,"gmtModify":1631893324166,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Choices to make when wear and tear sets in","listText":"Choices to make when wear and tear sets in","text":"Choices to make when wear and tear sets in","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148246971","repostId":"1166379040","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157142146,"gmtCreate":1625575033485,"gmtModify":1631893324181,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting read","listText":"Interesting read","text":"Interesting read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157142146","repostId":"1153955441","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158606823,"gmtCreate":1625146850062,"gmtModify":1631893324197,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read&nbsp;","listText":"Good read&nbsp;","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158606823","repostId":"1110936297","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":179122223,"gmtCreate":1626495083562,"gmtModify":1631893324112,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179122223","repostId":"2152168594","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148242598,"gmtCreate":1625982845014,"gmtModify":1631893324155,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148242598","repostId":"1101087642","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164627435,"gmtCreate":1624202494027,"gmtModify":1634009527440,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm.. to be observed [Observation]&nbsp;","listText":"Hmm.. to be observed [Observation]&nbsp;","text":"Hmm.. to be observed [Observation]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164627435","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184786541,"gmtCreate":1623725338083,"gmtModify":1634029507880,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes, will go for&nbsp;Apple for sure","listText":"Yes, will go for&nbsp;Apple for sure","text":"Yes, will go for Apple for sure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184786541","repostId":"1167720481","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167720481","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623723356,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167720481?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股还是苹果，我每次都选苹果</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167720481","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.So what does AAPL do with all of the cash","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.</li>  <li>Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.</li>  <li>Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.</li>  <li>Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3b80a3353ef82f618688f13f74658\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在2021年一直是负面投资，而模因股票却呈爆炸式增长，这太荒谬了。</li><li>投资者有机会在苹果下一轮上涨之前买入它，而注意力已转移到追逐模因股票的快速赚钱上。</li><li>苹果有望在2021财年创造超过3000亿美元的收入和750亿美元的净利润。</li><li>最终，苹果将被投入到党中，他们的数字将被庆祝。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers&nbsp;Cathie Wood&nbsp;of&nbsp;Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in&nbsp;Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，苹果(AAPL)已成为负回报投资，表现落后SPDR标普500信托ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）超过15%。2021年5月，最热门的基金经理之一Ark Invest的Cathie Wood从ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(ARKF)出售了近30万股AAPL股票。据报道，ARK一度减持了AAPL的股份，以增持Coinbase(COIN)和DraftKings(DKNG)的股份。one’s ARK等主动管理型基金每天都会监督股票的买卖，并且可能会使用AAPL作为现金的替代品。苹果公司的评论褒贬不一，一些人认为它最好的日子还在前面，而另一些人则认为辉煌的日子不会重现。我认为市场正在给投资者一个机会，因为AAPL应该会在2021年下半年突破横盘格局。</blockquote></p><p> The market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation &amp; gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.</p><p><blockquote>市场对苹果公司在第一季度和第二季度的井喷表现并没有留下深刻印象。苹果公司的股价非但没有受到基本面的支持，反而一直停滞不前。作为苹果公司的多头，令人费解的是，当苹果公司为有史以来最好的一年做准备时，如此多的注意力都集中在模因股票上，而不是像苹果公司这样的公司。在阅读了最近关于MEME股票的文章的评论后，我写道，然后回顾一些AAPL文章的评论部分，我只是不明白心态是如何转向彻底的投机和赌博而不是投资的。在本财年的前两个季度，2021年AAPL的每股收益为3.08美元，而整个2020财年的每股收益为3.31美元。苹果公司正在为许多指标上有史以来最好的一年奠定基础，但市场并没有留下深刻印象。我相信2021年下半年将会有令人印象深刻的烟花，随着第三季度和第四季度数据的公布，耐心的股东将会得到回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86cb02096dfa9c6da05e350f274aa64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果相信这是市场上最好的投资，并把钱用在了他们的嘴上</b></blockquote></p><p> So what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&amp;D]. In&nbsp;2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&amp;D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.</p><p><blockquote>那么AAPL如何处理其产生的所有现金呢？首先，他们每年花费数百亿美元来发展业务，同时投资研发[R&amp;D]。2020年，AAPL在创收成本上花费了1695.6亿美元。他们的劳动成果可以从他们的产品供应以及他们最新的业务领域（包括服务和可穿戴设备、家居和配件）的增长速度中看出。AAPL在2020年拨款187.5亿美元用于研发，为他们心爱的产品带来进步。AAPL拥有类似邪教心态的客户的原因之一是因为AAPL不会停止创新。他们总是站在最前沿，推动技术如何改善个人日常生活的界限。</blockquote></p><p> So what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's&nbsp;board&nbsp;authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost&nbsp;$23 billion&nbsp;in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.</p><p><blockquote>那么AAPL的业务费用兑现后剩下的现金呢？苹果公司押注于自己，并将其股票视为一种投资。自2012财年以来，AAPL已回购了价值4217亿美元的自有股票。2021年，AAPL回购了430亿美元的股票，这表明高级领导层认为持有AAPL股票具有巨大价值。我记得当内部人士购买他们公司的股票时，每个人都感到兴奋的日子。对于苹果公司来说，回购股票只是一个普通的周一。苹果公司在过去十年中回购的股票数量超过了大多数公司的市值增长水平。AAPL董事会授权在其现有股票回购计划的基础上追加900亿美元，AAPL在2021年第二季度向股东返还了近230亿美元的资本，没有比这更乐观的了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbaf61374104ed17e51201af591ab7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Meme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票与苹果以及这个市场的疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME &amp; AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>2021年上半年，游戏驿站(GME)和AMC院线控股(AMC)的股价大幅上涨。不管GME和AMC为何上涨，事实是GME的回报率超过1,100%，AMC的回报率超过2,000%。任何骑过GME或AMC的人，我祝贺并向你们脱帽致敬。由于AAPL今年表现不佳，市场正受到宏伟妄想的推动，但GME和AMC却绝对呈爆炸式上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85258331453c02381346f8b6c676cec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through&nbsp;AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个月AMC发生了什么变化？我可以告诉你，一件事都没有。AMC仍然是一家亏损且几乎不赚钱的公司。我知道投资AMC这样的公司可以因波动性而产生巨额回报，但我并不是在批评它。如果你能在上面赚钱，无论如何，不要让任何人妨碍你，但要小心。当你通读AMC的损益表时，你会发现他们的净利润从未超过4亿美元。在过去十年中，AMC最赚钱的一年是2013年，净利润为3.644亿美元。2019年，新冠疫情的影响为零，AMC创造了54.7亿美元的收入，甚至无法盈利，因为他们亏损了1.491亿美元。AMC上一季度报告的资产负债表上的股本为-23亿美元。现实情况是，AMC可以增发股票并出售以筹集资金。这将改善资产负债表并增加手头现金，从而使AMC受益。人们似乎不明白，当一家公司发行更多股票时，最初的一批股票会因为额外的供应而被稀释并变得毫无价值。AMC可以发行股票并增强其资产负债表，但这不会解决其盈利问题。AAPL每个季度向股东支付的股息比AMC过去十年产生的利润还要多，但AMC是产生更大回报的股票。</blockquote></p><p> When investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my&nbsp;AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&amp;P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN)&nbsp;has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and&nbsp;Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.</p><p><blockquote>当投资者购买AMC股票时，他们购买的是一家每股收益为负的公司。AMC的市盈率无法在过去12个月或远期基础上衡量，但投资者愿意为不存在的收益买单。在我的AMC文章的评论中，人们说基本面并不重要。我知道AMC一直是一项技术性交易，但这并不能改变投资者为一家盈利为负的公司买单的现实。目前，标准普尔指数的平均市盈率为45.02。如果我使用AAPL在2021财年前6个月产生的每股收益3.08美元，他们的市盈率将为40.55。对于TTM，AAPL的每股收益为4.49美元，这使得其市盈率降至28.09。目前，投资者为AAPL每产生1美元的收益支付28.09美元，这对于科技行业来说很低。亚马逊(AMZN)的市盈率为62.44，微软(MSFT)为34.93，谷歌(GOOGL)为32.05。看涨期权我很守旧，但我喜欢投资盈利的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e06d9bc68454731c984429111ff056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"661\"><span>(Source:multpl.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：multpl.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Laying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阐述苹果的牛市理由以及为什么向上突破是不可避免的</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司拥有一批狂热的追随者，他们被其产品和服务所吸引。2021年前6个月，AAPLhas的收入为2010.2亿美元，毛利润为824.1亿美元，净利润为523.9亿美元。2021年，AAPL已创造了2020年总收入的73.23%（2010.2亿美元），然后是2020年总收入（824.1亿美元）的78.51%和2020年净利润总额（523.9亿美元）的91.25%。AAPL有望打破之前的记录，除非发生深不可测的事情，否则2021年将是AAPL有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> So the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when&nbsp;AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.</p><p><blockquote>因此，真正的问题是是什么导致了AAPL财务状况的飙升，以及它们是否可持续？部分原因是AAPL的硬件销量从iPhone 12到iPad都有所增长。可以说，由于在家工作或远程学习，许多人在疫情期间需要升级他们的技术，但这种逻辑不能用于2021年。4月底，当AAPL报告Q2时，他们的iPhone销售额超出预期71.4亿美元，Mac销售额超出预期22亿美元，iPad销售额超出预期20.1亿美元。这些数字是一年后的事了，虽然AAPL首款5G产品iPhone 12预计会带来推动力，但我相信疫情将社会推向了一个更加重视技术的地方。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In&nbsp;2018 Services&nbsp;generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.</p><p><blockquote>我相信AAPL将继续看到强劲的硬件销售，但这只是拼图的一部分。服务和可穿戴设备家居和配件正在成为AAPL财务指标的重要组成部分。2018年，服务业创造了397.5亿美元的收入。2019年，服务增加了65.4亿美元（16.46%），全年收入为462.9亿美元。2020年，服务业增长了74.8亿美元（16.15%），总收入达到537.7亿美元。2020年前6个月，服务已经创造了326.6亿美元的收入，占2020年总收入的60.75%。服务持续增长，为AAPL创造了真正的经常性收入业务部门。服务的美妙之处在于AAPL销售的每一件硬件；每个月都有机会通过服务产生额外的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Services are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>服务正在成为AAPL的本垒打，因为它使其收入组合多元化，不再仅仅依靠实体产品构建。截至2020财年结束时，服务业在短短4年内年收入增加了294.2亿美元（120.83%）。2021年前6个月，服务业创造了326.6亿美元，是2020年收入的60%。AAPL有望在2021财年实现600亿美元的服务收入。展望未来，在不久的将来，服务业可能会创造1000亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f044f79f7525038fb94ed27b6a92209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Wearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备家居和配件继续追随Service的脚步，因为它已成为比iPad和Mac更大的收入领域。随着苹果观察的成立，这一类别的收入从2016年的111.3亿美元增长到2020年的306.2亿美元。在4个财年中，可穿戴家居和配件的收入增加了244.8亿美元（175.06%），并且增长不断扩大。2021年前6个月，可穿戴家居和配件已经创造了208.1亿美元的收入，是2020年总收入的67.95%。AAPL肯定有望在2021财年从可穿戴设备家居和配件中创造超过350亿美元的收入。未来几年，AAPL有望从可穿戴设备家居和配件中创造500亿美元的年收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7071ec652302c6cab585fef4c408d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.</p><p><blockquote>到2025财年结束时，服务很有可能会产生超过780亿美元的收入，如果两者都以10%的速度增长，可穿戴家居和配件的年收入可能会超过440亿美元。这两个类别的总收入有望超过1000亿美元，到2020年代末，这一数字可能会增长到每年1500亿美元。我对投资者没有涌入苹果公司感到震惊，更可笑的是，没有更详细地讨论对苹果公司数据的强调。当服务业收入达到1000亿美元、可穿戴家居和配件收入达到500亿美元时，AAPL未来的价值是多少？在过去的十年里，AAPL不断创新并改变技术的使用方式，我拒绝相信他们最好的日子已经过去。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cd231b75d9f875329f6713debe846b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票让一些投资者兴奋不已，同时也让另一群投资者摇头。除了赌博之外，我无法理解当你可以购买AAPL出售的股票时，为什么人们想要投资AMC。苹果公司本应大幅上涨，但其最近两个季度的井喷并没有起到任何作用。我相信一旦第三季度的数据公布，情况就会有所不同。我们将再次发现，AAPL继续购买数十亿美元的股票，同时报告称，在9个月内，他们创造的净利润超过了2020年全年。在运营的前6个月，AAPL创造了2010.2亿美元的收入和523.9亿美元的净利润，同时返还了532亿美元的回购和股息。投资者有机会在下一轮上涨之前买入更多苹果公司。我是AAPL的股东，我计划在第三季度财报公布之前购买更多。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股还是苹果，我每次都选苹果</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股还是苹果，我每次都选苹果</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 10:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.</li>  <li>Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.</li>  <li>Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.</li>  <li>Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3b80a3353ef82f618688f13f74658\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在2021年一直是负面投资，而模因股票却呈爆炸式增长，这太荒谬了。</li><li>投资者有机会在苹果下一轮上涨之前买入它，而注意力已转移到追逐模因股票的快速赚钱上。</li><li>苹果有望在2021财年创造超过3000亿美元的收入和750亿美元的净利润。</li><li>最终，苹果将被投入到党中，他们的数字将被庆祝。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers&nbsp;Cathie Wood&nbsp;of&nbsp;Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in&nbsp;Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，苹果(AAPL)已成为负回报投资，表现落后SPDR标普500信托ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）超过15%。2021年5月，最热门的基金经理之一Ark Invest的Cathie Wood从ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(ARKF)出售了近30万股AAPL股票。据报道，ARK一度减持了AAPL的股份，以增持Coinbase(COIN)和DraftKings(DKNG)的股份。one’s ARK等主动管理型基金每天都会监督股票的买卖，并且可能会使用AAPL作为现金的替代品。苹果公司的评论褒贬不一，一些人认为它最好的日子还在前面，而另一些人则认为辉煌的日子不会重现。我认为市场正在给投资者一个机会，因为AAPL应该会在2021年下半年突破横盘格局。</blockquote></p><p> The market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation &amp; gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.</p><p><blockquote>市场对苹果公司在第一季度和第二季度的井喷表现并没有留下深刻印象。苹果公司的股价非但没有受到基本面的支持，反而一直停滞不前。作为苹果公司的多头，令人费解的是，当苹果公司为有史以来最好的一年做准备时，如此多的注意力都集中在模因股票上，而不是像苹果公司这样的公司。在阅读了最近关于MEME股票的文章的评论后，我写道，然后回顾一些AAPL文章的评论部分，我只是不明白心态是如何转向彻底的投机和赌博而不是投资的。在本财年的前两个季度，2021年AAPL的每股收益为3.08美元，而整个2020财年的每股收益为3.31美元。苹果公司正在为许多指标上有史以来最好的一年奠定基础，但市场并没有留下深刻印象。我相信2021年下半年将会有令人印象深刻的烟花，随着第三季度和第四季度数据的公布，耐心的股东将会得到回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86cb02096dfa9c6da05e350f274aa64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果相信这是市场上最好的投资，并把钱用在了他们的嘴上</b></blockquote></p><p> So what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&amp;D]. In&nbsp;2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&amp;D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.</p><p><blockquote>那么AAPL如何处理其产生的所有现金呢？首先，他们每年花费数百亿美元来发展业务，同时投资研发[R&amp;D]。2020年，AAPL在创收成本上花费了1695.6亿美元。他们的劳动成果可以从他们的产品供应以及他们最新的业务领域（包括服务和可穿戴设备、家居和配件）的增长速度中看出。AAPL在2020年拨款187.5亿美元用于研发，为他们心爱的产品带来进步。AAPL拥有类似邪教心态的客户的原因之一是因为AAPL不会停止创新。他们总是站在最前沿，推动技术如何改善个人日常生活的界限。</blockquote></p><p> So what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's&nbsp;board&nbsp;authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost&nbsp;$23 billion&nbsp;in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.</p><p><blockquote>那么AAPL的业务费用兑现后剩下的现金呢？苹果公司押注于自己，并将其股票视为一种投资。自2012财年以来，AAPL已回购了价值4217亿美元的自有股票。2021年，AAPL回购了430亿美元的股票，这表明高级领导层认为持有AAPL股票具有巨大价值。我记得当内部人士购买他们公司的股票时，每个人都感到兴奋的日子。对于苹果公司来说，回购股票只是一个普通的周一。苹果公司在过去十年中回购的股票数量超过了大多数公司的市值增长水平。AAPL董事会授权在其现有股票回购计划的基础上追加900亿美元，AAPL在2021年第二季度向股东返还了近230亿美元的资本，没有比这更乐观的了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbaf61374104ed17e51201af591ab7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Meme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票与苹果以及这个市场的疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME &amp; AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>2021年上半年，游戏驿站(GME)和AMC院线控股(AMC)的股价大幅上涨。不管GME和AMC为何上涨，事实是GME的回报率超过1,100%，AMC的回报率超过2,000%。任何骑过GME或AMC的人，我祝贺并向你们脱帽致敬。由于AAPL今年表现不佳，市场正受到宏伟妄想的推动，但GME和AMC却绝对呈爆炸式上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85258331453c02381346f8b6c676cec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through&nbsp;AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个月AMC发生了什么变化？我可以告诉你，一件事都没有。AMC仍然是一家亏损且几乎不赚钱的公司。我知道投资AMC这样的公司可以因波动性而产生巨额回报，但我并不是在批评它。如果你能在上面赚钱，无论如何，不要让任何人妨碍你，但要小心。当你通读AMC的损益表时，你会发现他们的净利润从未超过4亿美元。在过去十年中，AMC最赚钱的一年是2013年，净利润为3.644亿美元。2019年，新冠疫情的影响为零，AMC创造了54.7亿美元的收入，甚至无法盈利，因为他们亏损了1.491亿美元。AMC上一季度报告的资产负债表上的股本为-23亿美元。现实情况是，AMC可以增发股票并出售以筹集资金。这将改善资产负债表并增加手头现金，从而使AMC受益。人们似乎不明白，当一家公司发行更多股票时，最初的一批股票会因为额外的供应而被稀释并变得毫无价值。AMC可以发行股票并增强其资产负债表，但这不会解决其盈利问题。AAPL每个季度向股东支付的股息比AMC过去十年产生的利润还要多，但AMC是产生更大回报的股票。</blockquote></p><p> When investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my&nbsp;AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&amp;P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN)&nbsp;has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and&nbsp;Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.</p><p><blockquote>当投资者购买AMC股票时，他们购买的是一家每股收益为负的公司。AMC的市盈率无法在过去12个月或远期基础上衡量，但投资者愿意为不存在的收益买单。在我的AMC文章的评论中，人们说基本面并不重要。我知道AMC一直是一项技术性交易，但这并不能改变投资者为一家盈利为负的公司买单的现实。目前，标准普尔指数的平均市盈率为45.02。如果我使用AAPL在2021财年前6个月产生的每股收益3.08美元，他们的市盈率将为40.55。对于TTM，AAPL的每股收益为4.49美元，这使得其市盈率降至28.09。目前，投资者为AAPL每产生1美元的收益支付28.09美元，这对于科技行业来说很低。亚马逊(AMZN)的市盈率为62.44，微软(MSFT)为34.93，谷歌(GOOGL)为32.05。看涨期权我很守旧，但我喜欢投资盈利的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e06d9bc68454731c984429111ff056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"661\"><span>(Source:multpl.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：multpl.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Laying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阐述苹果的牛市理由以及为什么向上突破是不可避免的</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司拥有一批狂热的追随者，他们被其产品和服务所吸引。2021年前6个月，AAPLhas的收入为2010.2亿美元，毛利润为824.1亿美元，净利润为523.9亿美元。2021年，AAPL已创造了2020年总收入的73.23%（2010.2亿美元），然后是2020年总收入（824.1亿美元）的78.51%和2020年净利润总额（523.9亿美元）的91.25%。AAPL有望打破之前的记录，除非发生深不可测的事情，否则2021年将是AAPL有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> So the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when&nbsp;AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.</p><p><blockquote>因此，真正的问题是是什么导致了AAPL财务状况的飙升，以及它们是否可持续？部分原因是AAPL的硬件销量从iPhone 12到iPad都有所增长。可以说，由于在家工作或远程学习，许多人在疫情期间需要升级他们的技术，但这种逻辑不能用于2021年。4月底，当AAPL报告Q2时，他们的iPhone销售额超出预期71.4亿美元，Mac销售额超出预期22亿美元，iPad销售额超出预期20.1亿美元。这些数字是一年后的事了，虽然AAPL首款5G产品iPhone 12预计会带来推动力，但我相信疫情将社会推向了一个更加重视技术的地方。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In&nbsp;2018 Services&nbsp;generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.</p><p><blockquote>我相信AAPL将继续看到强劲的硬件销售，但这只是拼图的一部分。服务和可穿戴设备家居和配件正在成为AAPL财务指标的重要组成部分。2018年，服务业创造了397.5亿美元的收入。2019年，服务增加了65.4亿美元（16.46%），全年收入为462.9亿美元。2020年，服务业增长了74.8亿美元（16.15%），总收入达到537.7亿美元。2020年前6个月，服务已经创造了326.6亿美元的收入，占2020年总收入的60.75%。服务持续增长，为AAPL创造了真正的经常性收入业务部门。服务的美妙之处在于AAPL销售的每一件硬件；每个月都有机会通过服务产生额外的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Services are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>服务正在成为AAPL的本垒打，因为它使其收入组合多元化，不再仅仅依靠实体产品构建。截至2020财年结束时，服务业在短短4年内年收入增加了294.2亿美元（120.83%）。2021年前6个月，服务业创造了326.6亿美元，是2020年收入的60%。AAPL有望在2021财年实现600亿美元的服务收入。展望未来，在不久的将来，服务业可能会创造1000亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f044f79f7525038fb94ed27b6a92209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Wearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备家居和配件继续追随Service的脚步，因为它已成为比iPad和Mac更大的收入领域。随着苹果观察的成立，这一类别的收入从2016年的111.3亿美元增长到2020年的306.2亿美元。在4个财年中，可穿戴家居和配件的收入增加了244.8亿美元（175.06%），并且增长不断扩大。2021年前6个月，可穿戴家居和配件已经创造了208.1亿美元的收入，是2020年总收入的67.95%。AAPL肯定有望在2021财年从可穿戴设备家居和配件中创造超过350亿美元的收入。未来几年，AAPL有望从可穿戴设备家居和配件中创造500亿美元的年收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7071ec652302c6cab585fef4c408d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.</p><p><blockquote>到2025财年结束时，服务很有可能会产生超过780亿美元的收入，如果两者都以10%的速度增长，可穿戴家居和配件的年收入可能会超过440亿美元。这两个类别的总收入有望超过1000亿美元，到2020年代末，这一数字可能会增长到每年1500亿美元。我对投资者没有涌入苹果公司感到震惊，更可笑的是，没有更详细地讨论对苹果公司数据的强调。当服务业收入达到1000亿美元、可穿戴家居和配件收入达到500亿美元时，AAPL未来的价值是多少？在过去的十年里，AAPL不断创新并改变技术的使用方式，我拒绝相信他们最好的日子已经过去。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cd231b75d9f875329f6713debe846b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票让一些投资者兴奋不已，同时也让另一群投资者摇头。除了赌博之外，我无法理解当你可以购买AAPL出售的股票时，为什么人们想要投资AMC。苹果公司本应大幅上涨，但其最近两个季度的井喷并没有起到任何作用。我相信一旦第三季度的数据公布，情况就会有所不同。我们将再次发现，AAPL继续购买数十亿美元的股票，同时报告称，在9个月内，他们创造的净利润超过了2020年全年。在运营的前6个月，AAPL创造了2010.2亿美元的收入和523.9亿美元的净利润，同时返还了532亿美元的回购和股息。投资者有机会在下一轮上涨之前买入更多苹果公司。我是AAPL的股东，我计划在第三季度财报公布之前购买更多。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167720481","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.\nInvestors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.\nApple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.\nEventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nIn 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.\nThe market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation & gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nApple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is\nSo what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&D]. In 2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.\nSo what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's board authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost $23 billion in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.\n(Source: Apple)\nMeme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market\nGameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME & AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nWhat's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.\nWhen investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN) has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.\n(Source:multpl.com)\nLaying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable\nAAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.\nSo the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.\nI believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In 2018 Services generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.\nServices are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nWearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nBy the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.\n(Source: Apple)\nConclusion\nThe meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819275266,"gmtCreate":1630074843555,"gmtModify":1704955616467,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go Cathie! [Bless]&nbsp;[Victory]&nbsp;","listText":"Go Cathie! [Bless]&nbsp;[Victory]&nbsp;","text":"Go Cathie! [Bless] [Victory]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819275266","repostId":"1131568820","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890967756,"gmtCreate":1628077816775,"gmtModify":1631890264852,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice run","listText":"Nice run","text":"Nice run","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890967756","repostId":"1184521901","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184521901","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1628070314,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184521901?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 17:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Is Fueling The AMD Rally?<blockquote>是什么推动了AMD的反弹？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184521901","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD extended gains to a fifth straight day and closed 3.6% hig","content":"<p>Shares of&nbsp;<b>Advanced Micro Devices Inc.</b>&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a></b>&nbsp;extended gains to a fifth straight day and closed 3.6% higher in Tuesday’s regular trading session.</p><p><blockquote>本公司之股份<b>先进微设备公司。</b> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a></b>连续第五天上涨，周二常规交易时段收盘上涨3.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened</b>: Advanced Micro Devices shares also hit a new 52-week high of $114.85 on Tuesday after the chipmakerannouncedthe availability of its new AMD Radeon PRO W6000X series GPUs for&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc.’s</b>&nbsp;Mac Pro desktop computers.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b>：在芯片制造商Advanced Micro Devices宣布推出新款AMD Radeon PRO W6000X系列GPU后，该公司股价周二也创下52周新高114.85美元<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司的</b>Mac Pro台式电脑。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, the company’s shares likely benefited after Bloombergreportedthat UK regulators may block rival chipmaker<b>Nvidia Corp.’s</b>NVDA$40 billion acquisition of UK-based chipmaker Arm Ltd. due to national security concerns.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在彭博社报道英国监管机构可能阻止竞争对手芯片制造商后，该公司股价可能受益<b>英伟达公司的</b>出于国家安全考虑，NVDA以400亿美元收购英国芯片制造商Arm Ltd.。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Momentum From <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a> Results:</b>&nbsp;AMD’s shares have been picked up momentum after the companyreportedbetter-than-expected second-quarter results last week.</p><p><blockquote><b>动量来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a>结果：</b>AMD上周公布好于预期的第二季度业绩后，该公司股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Retail Interest:</b>&nbsp;AMD is seeinghigh interestfrom retail investors and was the third-most discussed stock on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum as of Tuesday night. The forum, which has 10.7 million users, is best known for driving the rally in&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a> Corp.</b>&nbsp;and other heavily shorted stocks earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>零售权益：</b>AMD引起了散户投资者的高度兴趣，截至周二晚上，AMD是Reddit r/WallStreetBets论坛上讨论次数第三多的股票。该论坛拥有1070万用户，以推动集会而闻名<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>公司。</b>以及今年早些时候被严重做空的其他股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a> Production Woes</b>: In June, CNBC host Cramernotedthat&nbsp;<b>Intel Corp.</b>&nbsp;delaying production of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of its newest chips, code-named Sapphire Rapids, was “another reason” to buy shares in AMD. The delay by Intel is seen as creating an opportunity for AMD to gain market share.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>生产困境</b>：6月，CNBC主持人克莱默指出<b>英特尔公司。</b>延迟生产<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>其代号为Sapphire Rapids的最新芯片是购买AMD股票的“另一个原因”。英特尔的延迟被视为为AMD获得市场份额创造了机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>High-Profile <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CUBI\">Customers</a></b>: AMD&nbsp;secured&nbsp;<b>Tesla Inc</b>.and<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.</b>&nbsp;subsidiary Google as its high-profile customers in June.</p><p><blockquote><b>高调<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CUBI\">客户</a></b>：AMD安全<b>特斯拉公司</b>.和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>公司。</b>子公司谷歌在6月份成为其备受瞩目的客户。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action</b>: Advanced Micro Devices shares closed 3.6% higher in Tuesday’s regular trading session at $112.56.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为</b>：Advanced Micro Devices股价在周二常规交易时段收盘上涨3.6%，至112.56美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Is Fueling The AMD Rally?<blockquote>是什么推动了AMD的反弹？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Is Fueling The AMD Rally?<blockquote>是什么推动了AMD的反弹？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-04 17:45</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of&nbsp;<b>Advanced Micro Devices Inc.</b>&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a></b>&nbsp;extended gains to a fifth straight day and closed 3.6% higher in Tuesday’s regular trading session.</p><p><blockquote>本公司之股份<b>先进微设备公司。</b> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a></b>连续第五天上涨，周二常规交易时段收盘上涨3.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened</b>: Advanced Micro Devices shares also hit a new 52-week high of $114.85 on Tuesday after the chipmakerannouncedthe availability of its new AMD Radeon PRO W6000X series GPUs for&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc.’s</b>&nbsp;Mac Pro desktop computers.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b>：在芯片制造商Advanced Micro Devices宣布推出新款AMD Radeon PRO W6000X系列GPU后，该公司股价周二也创下52周新高114.85美元<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司的</b>Mac Pro台式电脑。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, the company’s shares likely benefited after Bloombergreportedthat UK regulators may block rival chipmaker<b>Nvidia Corp.’s</b>NVDA$40 billion acquisition of UK-based chipmaker Arm Ltd. due to national security concerns.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在彭博社报道英国监管机构可能阻止竞争对手芯片制造商后，该公司股价可能受益<b>英伟达公司的</b>出于国家安全考虑，NVDA以400亿美元收购英国芯片制造商Arm Ltd.。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Momentum From <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a> Results:</b>&nbsp;AMD’s shares have been picked up momentum after the companyreportedbetter-than-expected second-quarter results last week.</p><p><blockquote><b>动量来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a>结果：</b>AMD上周公布好于预期的第二季度业绩后，该公司股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Retail Interest:</b>&nbsp;AMD is seeinghigh interestfrom retail investors and was the third-most discussed stock on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum as of Tuesday night. The forum, which has 10.7 million users, is best known for driving the rally in&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a> Corp.</b>&nbsp;and other heavily shorted stocks earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>零售权益：</b>AMD引起了散户投资者的高度兴趣，截至周二晚上，AMD是Reddit r/WallStreetBets论坛上讨论次数第三多的股票。该论坛拥有1070万用户，以推动集会而闻名<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>公司。</b>以及今年早些时候被严重做空的其他股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a> Production Woes</b>: In June, CNBC host Cramernotedthat&nbsp;<b>Intel Corp.</b>&nbsp;delaying production of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of its newest chips, code-named Sapphire Rapids, was “another reason” to buy shares in AMD. The delay by Intel is seen as creating an opportunity for AMD to gain market share.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>生产困境</b>：6月，CNBC主持人克莱默指出<b>英特尔公司。</b>延迟生产<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>其代号为Sapphire Rapids的最新芯片是购买AMD股票的“另一个原因”。英特尔的延迟被视为为AMD获得市场份额创造了机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>High-Profile <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CUBI\">Customers</a></b>: AMD&nbsp;secured&nbsp;<b>Tesla Inc</b>.and<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.</b>&nbsp;subsidiary Google as its high-profile customers in June.</p><p><blockquote><b>高调<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CUBI\">客户</a></b>：AMD安全<b>特斯拉公司</b>.和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>公司。</b>子公司谷歌在6月份成为其备受瞩目的客户。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action</b>: Advanced Micro Devices shares closed 3.6% higher in Tuesday’s regular trading session at $112.56.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为</b>：Advanced Micro Devices股价在周二常规交易时段收盘上涨3.6%，至112.56美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184521901","content_text":"Shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD extended gains to a fifth straight day and closed 3.6% higher in Tuesday’s regular trading session.\nWhat Happened: Advanced Micro Devices shares also hit a new 52-week high of $114.85 on Tuesday after the chipmakerannouncedthe availability of its new AMD Radeon PRO W6000X series GPUs for Apple Inc.’s Mac Pro desktop computers.\nIn addition, the company’s shares likely benefited after Bloombergreportedthat UK regulators may block rival chipmakerNvidia Corp.’sNVDA$40 billion acquisition of UK-based chipmaker Arm Ltd. due to national security concerns.\nMomentum From Q2 Results: AMD’s shares have been picked up momentum after the companyreportedbetter-than-expected second-quarter results last week.\nRetail Interest: AMD is seeinghigh interestfrom retail investors and was the third-most discussed stock on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum as of Tuesday night. The forum, which has 10.7 million users, is best known for driving the rally in GameStop Corp. and other heavily shorted stocks earlier this year.\nIntel Production Woes: In June, CNBC host Cramernotedthat Intel Corp. delaying production of one of its newest chips, code-named Sapphire Rapids, was “another reason” to buy shares in AMD. The delay by Intel is seen as creating an opportunity for AMD to gain market share.\nHigh-Profile Customers: AMD secured Tesla Inc.andAlphabet Inc. subsidiary Google as its high-profile customers in June.\nPrice Action: Advanced Micro Devices shares closed 3.6% higher in Tuesday’s regular trading session at $112.56.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802992718,"gmtCreate":1627704252534,"gmtModify":1631890264854,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It would be an incredible merger if it happens","listText":"It would be an incredible merger if it happens","text":"It would be an incredible merger if it happens","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802992718","repostId":"2155492152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182162832,"gmtCreate":1623558354626,"gmtModify":1634031710859,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fly him and Amazon share price to the moon [Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"Fly him and Amazon share price to the moon [Cool]&nbsp;","text":"Fly him and Amazon share price to the moon [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182162832","repostId":"1191179846","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139606763,"gmtCreate":1621610131752,"gmtModify":1634187651642,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting read","listText":"Interesting read","text":"Interesting read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139606763","repostId":"1197544614","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1197544614","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621600946,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197544614?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-21 20:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: How Long Should You Hold It?<blockquote>苹果股票：你应该持有多久？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197544614","media":"TheStreet","summary":"For best performance, how long should Apple stock be held in a portfolio? The Apple Maven discusses ","content":"<p>For best performance, how long should Apple stock be held in a portfolio? The Apple Maven discusses what traders, speculators and investors should expect when betting on AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>为了获得最佳表现，苹果股票应该在投资组合中持有多长时间？这位苹果专家讨论了交易员、投机者和投资者在押注AAPL时应该期待什么。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;Street’s&nbsp;Jim Cramer has said it repeatedly: own Apple stock (ticker $AAPL), don’t trade it. Today, the Apple Maven revisits this idea to help determine how long one should hold Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)多次表示：拥有苹果股票（股票代码$AAPL），不要交易它。今天，这位苹果专家重新审视了这个想法，以帮助确定应该持有苹果股票多长时间。</blockquote></p><p> Below is an analysis of how much one might expect to gain if (1) day-trading, (2) speculating on, or (3) investing in Apple stock. Obviously, since the future is uncertain, the analysis is based on historical data – which I believe can at least provide a blueprint for future share price performance.</p><p><blockquote>以下是对(1)日内交易、(2)投机或(3)投资苹果股票的预期收益的分析。显然，由于未来不确定，分析基于历史数据——我相信这至少可以为未来股价表现提供蓝图。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6726ed885cefb1c7f81fe0ac2f6eff7c\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Figure 1: AAPL trading chart.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：AAPL交易图表。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. AAPL investors: long-term winners</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.AAPL投资者：长期赢家</b></blockquote></p><p> As I mentioned&nbsp;in my recent “Apple Stock 101” article, investors that bought Apple shares in December 1980 (i.e. the IPO date) and held onto them until now realized impressive annualized gains of&nbsp;<b>19%</b>. Clearly, AAPL has been a good asset to “get and forget” over Apple’s tenure as a publicly-traded company.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在最近的“苹果股票101”文章中提到的，在1980年12月（即IPO日期）购买苹果股票并持有至今的投资者实现了令人印象深刻的年化收益<b>19%</b>显然，在苹果担任上市公司期间，AAPL一直是一笔值得“忘记”的好资产。</blockquote></p><p> But allow me to work with more realistic time frames. For this exercise, I will consider “investors” those who hold AAPL for one year. To be clear, many might consider twelve months a minimum investment horizon to qualify as long term.</p><p><blockquote>但是请允许我用更现实的时间框架来工作。在这个练习中，我将把持有AAPL一年的人视为“投资者”。需要明确的是，许多人可能认为12个月是符合长期投资资格的最低投资期限。</blockquote></p><p> Also, I am limiting my analysis to the past 20 years, since the stock used to be much riskier and more volatile in its first couple of decades of existence than it is now. Apple stock’s returns have been even better during this period that begins with the end of the dot-com correction:<b>35%</b>&nbsp;annualized.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我将我的分析限制在过去20年，因为该股票在其存在的头几十年里的风险和波动性都比现在高得多。在从互联网调整结束开始的这段时间里，苹果股票的回报甚至更好：<b>35%</b>年化。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows the distribution of&nbsp;<i>weekly returns</i>&nbsp;earned by an Apple stock investor, using the parameters described above, if the bet had been made on any give day since May 2001.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了<i>每周回报</i>如果自2001年5月以来的任何一天下注，则由苹果股票投资者使用上述参数赚取。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d658a73af3c004123aa9e0d29906ebe7\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"418\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL investor's weekly return distribution.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL投资者的每周回报分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Key observation</b>: if held for one year, and based on historical observations alone (i.e. not on modeled projections for the future), Apple stock can arguably be expected to produce weekly returns of about +0.5% to +1.0%. Rarely has the stock been a big-time winner or loser – say, weekly returns of more than +2% or less than -1% on average – when the investment horizon is one year.</li> </ul> <b>#2. AAPL speculators: higher octane</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>关键观察</b>：如果持有一年，并且仅基于历史观察（即不是基于对未来的模型预测），苹果股票可以预期产生约+0.5%至+1.0%的周回报率。当投资期限为一年时，该股票很少成为大赢家或大输家（例如，平均每周回报率超过+2%或低于-1%）。</li></ul><b>#2.AAPL投机者：辛烷值更高</b></blockquote></p><p> Speculators have had a bit different experience from the above. Here, I characterize as “speculator” someone who buys AAPL and sells it ten weeks later, or roughly two and a half months after the purchase date.</p><p><blockquote>投机者的经历与上述略有不同。在这里，我将买入AAPL并在十周后（即购买日期后大约两个半月）卖出的人描述为“投机者”。</blockquote></p><p> See histogram below. For ease of comparison with the weekly return analysis immediately above, I kept the chart’s scale unchanged.</p><p><blockquote>参见下面的直方图。为了便于与上面的每周回报分析进行比较，我保持图表的比例不变。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209f65d605439ca2f039619f15f5fc68\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL speculator's weekly return distribution.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：AAPL投机者的周回报分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Key observation</b>: the distribution above is still somewhat bell-shaped, meaning that a weekly return of between +0.5% and +1.0% is still quite common. However, notice the much “fatter tails”. The probability of larger weekly gains or losses tends to increase when Apple stock is held for ten weeks rather than one year.</li> </ul> <b>#3. AAPL day-traders: buckle up!</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>关键观察</b>：上面的分布仍然有点钟形，这意味着+0.5%到+1.0%之间的周回报率仍然很常见。然而，请注意“更胖的尾巴”。当苹果股票持有十周而不是一年时，每周收益或损失较大的概率往往会增加。</li></ul><b>#3.AAPL日内交易者：系好安全带！</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, day-traders that buy Apple stock and sell it within less than a full week have been playing a completely different game. Once again, the histogram below depicts the average<i>weekly return</i>in AAPL when the timeframe is compressed to no more than 7 days. The chart scale, again, remains unchanged for ease of comparison.</p><p><blockquote>最后，买入苹果股票并在不到一周的时间内卖出的日内交易者一直在玩一种完全不同的游戏。同样，下面的直方图描述了平均值<i>每周回报</i>在AAPL，当时间范围被压缩到不超过7天时。为了便于比较，图表比例保持不变。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f77febcce32d4bcc45cf275cc5936671\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>Figure 4: AAPL day traders's weekly return distribution.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图4：AAPL日内交易者的周回报分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Key observation</b>: when buying and selling AAPL in a matter of days, it is most common for the bets to result in much more sizable weekly gains or losses: less than -2.0% or more than +2.0%. Earning long-term average gains of about +0.5% to +1.0%, in these cases, has been a rarity.</li> </ul> <b>What to make of it all</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>关键观察</b>：当在几天内买卖AAPL时，最常见的情况是赌注会导致更大的每周收益或损失：小于-2.0%或大于+2.0%。在这些情况下，获得约+0.5%至+1.0%的长期平均收益是罕见的。</li></ul><b>如何理解这一切</b></blockquote></p><p> Back to the original question: how long should Apple stock be held? Based on historical analysis, the answer really depends on personal goals. Here is the roadmap:</p><p><blockquote>回到最初的问题：苹果股票应该持有多久？基于历史分析，答案确实取决于个人目标。以下是路线图：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>If merely seeking long-term capital appreciation that might be market-beating, but probably not by a very wide margin, buying AAPL and holding it for a year or more is highly advisable. Speculative bets of a few weeks here and there (say, selling into strength and buying into weakness based on price action) could help to boost returns, if the trades are well executed.</li>  <li>If seeking outsized gains, trading AAPL within days would be the best approach. However, this strategy is also the riskiest, as it could lead to outsized losses instead. I believe that day-trading Apple stock is the least advisable approach to most people, but possibly an interesting proposition for a select few.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>如果只是寻求可能跑赢市场的长期资本增值，但幅度可能不会很大，那么购买AAPL并持有一年或更长时间是非常明智的。如果交易执行良好，在这里或那里进行几周的投机性押注（例如，根据价格走势在强势时卖出，在弱势时买入）可能有助于提高回报。</li><li>如果寻求巨额收益，在几天内交易AAPL将是最好的方法。然而，这种策略也是风险最大的，因为它可能会导致巨大的损失。我相信日内交易苹果股票对大多数人来说是最不可取的方法，但对少数人来说可能是一个有趣的提议。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: How Long Should You Hold It?<blockquote>苹果股票：你应该持有多久？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: How Long Should You Hold It?<blockquote>苹果股票：你应该持有多久？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-21 20:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For best performance, how long should Apple stock be held in a portfolio? The Apple Maven discusses what traders, speculators and investors should expect when betting on AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>为了获得最佳表现，苹果股票应该在投资组合中持有多长时间？这位苹果专家讨论了交易员、投机者和投资者在押注AAPL时应该期待什么。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;Street’s&nbsp;Jim Cramer has said it repeatedly: own Apple stock (ticker $AAPL), don’t trade it. Today, the Apple Maven revisits this idea to help determine how long one should hold Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)多次表示：拥有苹果股票（股票代码$AAPL），不要交易它。今天，这位苹果专家重新审视了这个想法，以帮助确定应该持有苹果股票多长时间。</blockquote></p><p> Below is an analysis of how much one might expect to gain if (1) day-trading, (2) speculating on, or (3) investing in Apple stock. Obviously, since the future is uncertain, the analysis is based on historical data – which I believe can at least provide a blueprint for future share price performance.</p><p><blockquote>以下是对(1)日内交易、(2)投机或(3)投资苹果股票的预期收益的分析。显然，由于未来不确定，分析基于历史数据——我相信这至少可以为未来股价表现提供蓝图。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6726ed885cefb1c7f81fe0ac2f6eff7c\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Figure 1: AAPL trading chart.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：AAPL交易图表。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. AAPL investors: long-term winners</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.AAPL投资者：长期赢家</b></blockquote></p><p> As I mentioned&nbsp;in my recent “Apple Stock 101” article, investors that bought Apple shares in December 1980 (i.e. the IPO date) and held onto them until now realized impressive annualized gains of&nbsp;<b>19%</b>. Clearly, AAPL has been a good asset to “get and forget” over Apple’s tenure as a publicly-traded company.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在最近的“苹果股票101”文章中提到的，在1980年12月（即IPO日期）购买苹果股票并持有至今的投资者实现了令人印象深刻的年化收益<b>19%</b>显然，在苹果担任上市公司期间，AAPL一直是一笔值得“忘记”的好资产。</blockquote></p><p> But allow me to work with more realistic time frames. For this exercise, I will consider “investors” those who hold AAPL for one year. To be clear, many might consider twelve months a minimum investment horizon to qualify as long term.</p><p><blockquote>但是请允许我用更现实的时间框架来工作。在这个练习中，我将把持有AAPL一年的人视为“投资者”。需要明确的是，许多人可能认为12个月是符合长期投资资格的最低投资期限。</blockquote></p><p> Also, I am limiting my analysis to the past 20 years, since the stock used to be much riskier and more volatile in its first couple of decades of existence than it is now. Apple stock’s returns have been even better during this period that begins with the end of the dot-com correction:<b>35%</b>&nbsp;annualized.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我将我的分析限制在过去20年，因为该股票在其存在的头几十年里的风险和波动性都比现在高得多。在从互联网调整结束开始的这段时间里，苹果股票的回报甚至更好：<b>35%</b>年化。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows the distribution of&nbsp;<i>weekly returns</i>&nbsp;earned by an Apple stock investor, using the parameters described above, if the bet had been made on any give day since May 2001.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了<i>每周回报</i>如果自2001年5月以来的任何一天下注，则由苹果股票投资者使用上述参数赚取。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d658a73af3c004123aa9e0d29906ebe7\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"418\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL investor's weekly return distribution.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL投资者的每周回报分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Key observation</b>: if held for one year, and based on historical observations alone (i.e. not on modeled projections for the future), Apple stock can arguably be expected to produce weekly returns of about +0.5% to +1.0%. Rarely has the stock been a big-time winner or loser – say, weekly returns of more than +2% or less than -1% on average – when the investment horizon is one year.</li> </ul> <b>#2. AAPL speculators: higher octane</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>关键观察</b>：如果持有一年，并且仅基于历史观察（即不是基于对未来的模型预测），苹果股票可以预期产生约+0.5%至+1.0%的周回报率。当投资期限为一年时，该股票很少成为大赢家或大输家（例如，平均每周回报率超过+2%或低于-1%）。</li></ul><b>#2.AAPL投机者：辛烷值更高</b></blockquote></p><p> Speculators have had a bit different experience from the above. Here, I characterize as “speculator” someone who buys AAPL and sells it ten weeks later, or roughly two and a half months after the purchase date.</p><p><blockquote>投机者的经历与上述略有不同。在这里，我将买入AAPL并在十周后（即购买日期后大约两个半月）卖出的人描述为“投机者”。</blockquote></p><p> See histogram below. For ease of comparison with the weekly return analysis immediately above, I kept the chart’s scale unchanged.</p><p><blockquote>参见下面的直方图。为了便于与上面的每周回报分析进行比较，我保持图表的比例不变。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209f65d605439ca2f039619f15f5fc68\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL speculator's weekly return distribution.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：AAPL投机者的周回报分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Key observation</b>: the distribution above is still somewhat bell-shaped, meaning that a weekly return of between +0.5% and +1.0% is still quite common. However, notice the much “fatter tails”. The probability of larger weekly gains or losses tends to increase when Apple stock is held for ten weeks rather than one year.</li> </ul> <b>#3. AAPL day-traders: buckle up!</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>关键观察</b>：上面的分布仍然有点钟形，这意味着+0.5%到+1.0%之间的周回报率仍然很常见。然而，请注意“更胖的尾巴”。当苹果股票持有十周而不是一年时，每周收益或损失较大的概率往往会增加。</li></ul><b>#3.AAPL日内交易者：系好安全带！</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, day-traders that buy Apple stock and sell it within less than a full week have been playing a completely different game. Once again, the histogram below depicts the average<i>weekly return</i>in AAPL when the timeframe is compressed to no more than 7 days. The chart scale, again, remains unchanged for ease of comparison.</p><p><blockquote>最后，买入苹果股票并在不到一周的时间内卖出的日内交易者一直在玩一种完全不同的游戏。同样，下面的直方图描述了平均值<i>每周回报</i>在AAPL，当时间范围被压缩到不超过7天时。为了便于比较，图表比例保持不变。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f77febcce32d4bcc45cf275cc5936671\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>Figure 4: AAPL day traders's weekly return distribution.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图4：AAPL日内交易者的周回报分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Key observation</b>: when buying and selling AAPL in a matter of days, it is most common for the bets to result in much more sizable weekly gains or losses: less than -2.0% or more than +2.0%. Earning long-term average gains of about +0.5% to +1.0%, in these cases, has been a rarity.</li> </ul> <b>What to make of it all</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>关键观察</b>：当在几天内买卖AAPL时，最常见的情况是赌注会导致更大的每周收益或损失：小于-2.0%或大于+2.0%。在这些情况下，获得约+0.5%至+1.0%的长期平均收益是罕见的。</li></ul><b>如何理解这一切</b></blockquote></p><p> Back to the original question: how long should Apple stock be held? Based on historical analysis, the answer really depends on personal goals. Here is the roadmap:</p><p><blockquote>回到最初的问题：苹果股票应该持有多久？基于历史分析，答案确实取决于个人目标。以下是路线图：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>If merely seeking long-term capital appreciation that might be market-beating, but probably not by a very wide margin, buying AAPL and holding it for a year or more is highly advisable. Speculative bets of a few weeks here and there (say, selling into strength and buying into weakness based on price action) could help to boost returns, if the trades are well executed.</li>  <li>If seeking outsized gains, trading AAPL within days would be the best approach. However, this strategy is also the riskiest, as it could lead to outsized losses instead. I believe that day-trading Apple stock is the least advisable approach to most people, but possibly an interesting proposition for a select few.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>如果只是寻求可能跑赢市场的长期资本增值，但幅度可能不会很大，那么购买AAPL并持有一年或更长时间是非常明智的。如果交易执行良好，在这里或那里进行几周的投机性押注（例如，根据价格走势在强势时卖出，在弱势时买入）可能有助于提高回报。</li><li>如果寻求巨额收益，在几天内交易AAPL将是最好的方法。然而，这种策略也是风险最大的，因为它可能会导致巨大的损失。我相信日内交易苹果股票对大多数人来说是最不可取的方法，但对少数人来说可能是一个有趣的提议。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-how-long-should-you-hold-it\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-how-long-should-you-hold-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197544614","content_text":"For best performance, how long should Apple stock be held in a portfolio? The Apple Maven discusses what traders, speculators and investors should expect when betting on AAPL.\nThe Street’s Jim Cramer has said it repeatedly: own Apple stock (ticker $AAPL), don’t trade it. Today, the Apple Maven revisits this idea to help determine how long one should hold Apple shares.\nBelow is an analysis of how much one might expect to gain if (1) day-trading, (2) speculating on, or (3) investing in Apple stock. Obviously, since the future is uncertain, the analysis is based on historical data – which I believe can at least provide a blueprint for future share price performance.\nFigure 1: AAPL trading chart.\n#1. AAPL investors: long-term winners\nAs I mentioned in my recent “Apple Stock 101” article, investors that bought Apple shares in December 1980 (i.e. the IPO date) and held onto them until now realized impressive annualized gains of 19%. Clearly, AAPL has been a good asset to “get and forget” over Apple’s tenure as a publicly-traded company.\nBut allow me to work with more realistic time frames. For this exercise, I will consider “investors” those who hold AAPL for one year. To be clear, many might consider twelve months a minimum investment horizon to qualify as long term.\nAlso, I am limiting my analysis to the past 20 years, since the stock used to be much riskier and more volatile in its first couple of decades of existence than it is now. Apple stock’s returns have been even better during this period that begins with the end of the dot-com correction:35% annualized.\nThe chart below shows the distribution of weekly returns earned by an Apple stock investor, using the parameters described above, if the bet had been made on any give day since May 2001.\nFigure 2: AAPL investor's weekly return distribution.\n\nKey observation: if held for one year, and based on historical observations alone (i.e. not on modeled projections for the future), Apple stock can arguably be expected to produce weekly returns of about +0.5% to +1.0%. Rarely has the stock been a big-time winner or loser – say, weekly returns of more than +2% or less than -1% on average – when the investment horizon is one year.\n\n#2. AAPL speculators: higher octane\nSpeculators have had a bit different experience from the above. Here, I characterize as “speculator” someone who buys AAPL and sells it ten weeks later, or roughly two and a half months after the purchase date.\nSee histogram below. For ease of comparison with the weekly return analysis immediately above, I kept the chart’s scale unchanged.\nFigure 3: AAPL speculator's weekly return distribution.\n\nKey observation: the distribution above is still somewhat bell-shaped, meaning that a weekly return of between +0.5% and +1.0% is still quite common. However, notice the much “fatter tails”. The probability of larger weekly gains or losses tends to increase when Apple stock is held for ten weeks rather than one year.\n\n#3. AAPL day-traders: buckle up!\nLastly, day-traders that buy Apple stock and sell it within less than a full week have been playing a completely different game. Once again, the histogram below depicts the averageweekly returnin AAPL when the timeframe is compressed to no more than 7 days. The chart scale, again, remains unchanged for ease of comparison.\nFigure 4: AAPL day traders's weekly return distribution.\n\nKey observation: when buying and selling AAPL in a matter of days, it is most common for the bets to result in much more sizable weekly gains or losses: less than -2.0% or more than +2.0%. Earning long-term average gains of about +0.5% to +1.0%, in these cases, has been a rarity.\n\nWhat to make of it all\nBack to the original question: how long should Apple stock be held? Based on historical analysis, the answer really depends on personal goals. Here is the roadmap:\n\nIf merely seeking long-term capital appreciation that might be market-beating, but probably not by a very wide margin, buying AAPL and holding it for a year or more is highly advisable. Speculative bets of a few weeks here and there (say, selling into strength and buying into weakness based on price action) could help to boost returns, if the trades are well executed.\nIf seeking outsized gains, trading AAPL within days would be the best approach. However, this strategy is also the riskiest, as it could lead to outsized losses instead. I believe that day-trading Apple stock is the least advisable approach to most people, but possibly an interesting proposition for a select few.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324734320,"gmtCreate":1616030094660,"gmtModify":1703496575646,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Privacy has become a&nbsp;valuable commodity&nbsp;","listText":"Privacy has become a&nbsp;valuable commodity&nbsp;","text":"Privacy has become a valuable commodity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324734320","repostId":"1138302707","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800333377,"gmtCreate":1627276587899,"gmtModify":1631890264868,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800333377","repostId":"1100772026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114666233,"gmtCreate":1623072963522,"gmtModify":1634037276032,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114666233","repostId":"1184606456","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346853377,"gmtCreate":1618023355899,"gmtModify":1634295176494,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346853377","repostId":"1115040048","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1115040048","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617971898,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115040048?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-09 20:38","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Why Semiconductors Are As Scarce As Gold<blockquote>为什么半导体像黄金一样稀缺</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115040048","media":"Think","summary":"A shortage of semiconductors is a continuing and major issue.The squeezed market is forcing manufacturers to slow down, weighing on recovery.And ongoing strong demand keeps the pressure on.Computer chips are in short supply due to a sudden spike in demand linked to Covid-19. This demand shock is primarily caused by consumers who can't splash the cash on services such as restaurants and travel and who are now spending more on consumer electronics. The strong demand for home office equipment and f","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>A shortage of semiconductors is a continuing and major issue.</li>  <li>The squeezed market is forcing manufacturers to slow down, weighing on recovery.</li>  <li>And ongoing strong demand keeps the pressure on.</li>  <li>A&nbsp;ramp-up of capital investment&nbsp;to boost production capacity helps, but it's going to take time before demand and supply are structurally in sync again.</li> </ul> <b>Demand and supply shocks squeeze chip markets</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>半导体短缺是一个持续的重大问题。</li><li>受挤压的市场迫使制造商放慢脚步，拖累复苏。</li><li>持续强劲的需求使压力持续存在。</li><li>增加资本投资以提高产能会有所帮助，但需求和供应在结构上再次同步还需要时间。</li></ul><b>供需冲击挤压芯片市场</b></blockquote></p><p> Computer chips are in short supply due to a sudden spike in demand linked to Covid-19. This demand shock is primarily caused by consumers who can't splash the cash on services such as restaurants and travel and who are now spending more on consumer electronics. The strong demand for home office equipment and faster-than-expected recovery from other sectors are also not helping.</p><p><blockquote>由于与新冠肺炎相关的需求突然激增，计算机芯片供应短缺。这种需求冲击主要是由消费者造成的，他们无法在餐馆和旅游等服务上花钱，现在在消费电子产品上花费更多。对家庭办公设备的强劲需求和其他行业快于预期的复苏也于事无补。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, 5G cellular networks are rolling out and there's a subsequent rise in demand for new compatible smartphones. While most semiconductor factories operate at maximum capacity, breakdowns at four Texas facilities due to extreme cold and a fire at a Renesas Naka factory north of Tokyo worsened the situation going into the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，5G蜂窝网络正在推出，随之而来的是对新型兼容智能手机的需求上升。虽然大多数半导体工厂都在以最大产能运营，但德克萨斯州的四家工厂因极端寒冷而发生故障，以及东京北部的瑞萨纳卡工厂发生火灾，使第二季度的情况更加恶化。</blockquote></p><p> Suppliers of game consoles and smartphones are having real trouble meeting the demand for their products due to the semiconductor shortage. You can also see it in the automotive industry, where there've been production cuts and planned interruptions.</p><p><blockquote>由于半导体短缺，游戏机和智能手机供应商在满足其产品需求方面遇到了真正的困难。你也可以在汽车行业看到这一点，那里出现了减产和计划中断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Structural demand for chips is growing rapidly</b></p><p><blockquote><b>芯片结构性需求快速增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Although part of this demand shock is temporary, there's a structural dimension to rapidly expanding semiconductor usage. The market is expected to grow by double digits again in 2021, according to IC Insights. Many devices that used to be completely analogue are now digital and supported by integrated circuits. For example, smart thermostats or light bulbs compatible with home systems contain significant computational power to support their functionality as well as digital connectivity.</p><p><blockquote>尽管这种需求冲击部分是暂时的，但半导体使用的快速扩大存在结构性层面。根据IC Insights的数据，该市场预计将在2021年再次以两位数增长。许多过去完全模拟的设备现在都是数字化的，并由集成电路支持。例如，与家庭系统兼容的智能恒温器或灯泡包含强大的计算能力，以支持其功能以及数字连接。</blockquote></p><p> Cars and trucks also require an increasing number of semiconductors, thanks to the extension of integrated Advanced Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS) and board computers. The rise in the production of electric vehicles and future steps in autonomous driving will push demand up still further.</p><p><blockquote>由于集成式高级驾驶辅助系统（ADAS）和车载计算机的扩展，汽车和卡车也需要越来越多的半导体。电动汽车产量的增长和自动驾驶的未来举措将进一步推高需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Supply issues may spill into 2022</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应问题可能会蔓延到2022年</b></blockquote></p><p> Current lead times for chips can be as long as 26 weeks and up to a year for some specific variants. Recent incidents at facilities in the US and Japan put the lead times further under pressure. Despite significant planned investments in semiconductor production facilities, capacity will remain scarce well into the second half of 2021. Even if the acute shortage is resolved in the second half of the year, semi-conductor manufacturing lines will remain operating at near-full capacity in the coming years, making the industry sensitive to future supply shocks.</p><p><blockquote>目前芯片的交付周期可能长达26周，对于一些特定的变体，可能长达一年。美国和日本工厂最近发生的事件进一步给交货时间带来了压力。尽管计划对半导体生产设施进行大量投资，但到2021年下半年，产能仍将稀缺。即使严重的短缺问题在下半年得到解决，半导体生产线在未来几年仍将保持接近满负荷运行，这使得该行业对未来的供应冲击非常敏感。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital investment boost will raise capacity, but this takes time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本投资的增加将提高产能，但这需要时间</b></blockquote></p><p> In order to meet growing demand, chipmakers started to ramp up investments. The Taiwanese company, TSMC (TSM), is boosting capital expenditure from USD17 billion in 2020 to USD28 billion in 2021. On top of that, the company plans to invest still more, to the tune of some USD100 billion in the next three years, to grow capacity.</p><p><blockquote>为了满足不断增长的需求，芯片制造商开始加大投资。台湾公司台积电(TSM)将资本支出从2020年的170亿美元增加到2021年的280亿美元。除此之外，该公司计划在未来三年内投资更多，达到约1000亿美元，以扩大产能。</blockquote></p><p> Samsung (SSNLF) also plans to increase semiconductor-related capital expenditure by 20%, up to USD31 billion this year, and announced there’s more to follow. Although these soaring investments will let supply catch up, this takes time and won’t bring much relief this year. Remember, chip production machines have long lead times. In the meantime, we notice that chip manufactures are ending volume discounts and some are also raising prices.</p><p><blockquote>三星(SSNLF)还计划今年将半导体相关资本支出增加20%，达到310亿美元，并宣布后续还会有更多资本支出。尽管这些飙升的投资会让供应迎头赶上，但这需要时间，今年不会带来太多缓解。请记住，芯片生产机器的交货时间很长。与此同时，我们注意到芯片制造商正在结束批量折扣，一些制造商也在提高价格。</blockquote></p><p> The science bit</p><p><blockquote>科学位</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>Chip production starts with wafers. A wafer (slice of semiconductor) acts as a substrate for microelectronic devices. Many so-called integrated circuits are printed on 200mm silicon wafers, being provided by silicon producers. Since the introduction of 300mm wafers in 2002, 200mm wafers were expected to phase out. Therefore, most investments in production capacity have been directed to production lines based on 300mm wafers.</li>  <li>However, 200mm wafer-based production is technologically mature, offering relatively low development and production costs and very stable manufacturing processes. Therefore, many of the less-complex chips, such as sensors and transmitters and the more basic processing units, are still being developed based on this 200mm technology.</li>  <li>The rise of smart devices and the Internet of Things (IoT) causes an unanticipated rise in demand for 200mm production capacity, contributing to the shortage. Although fresh 200mm capacity is coming available in 2021, foundries may be a bit reluctant to invest in this slightly dated technology, since 300mm wafer-based production is still expected to take over once production costs are sufficiently low.</li>  <li>This means that supply is expected to remain weak compared to demand.</li> </ul> <b>Most wafer production capacity concentrated in Asia</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>芯片生产从晶圆开始。晶片（半导体切片）用作微电子器件的衬底。许多所谓的集成电路印刷在200毫米的硅片上，由硅生产商提供。自2002年推出300mm晶圆以来，预计200mm晶圆将逐步淘汰。因此，大部分产能投资都投向了基于300mm晶圆的产线。</li><li>然而，基于200mm晶圆的生产技术成熟，开发和生产成本相对较低，制造工艺非常稳定。因此，许多不太复杂的芯片，如传感器和发射器以及更基本的处理单元，仍然基于这种200mm技术进行开发。</li><li>智能设备和物联网(IoT)的兴起导致对200mm产能的需求意外增加，从而导致短缺。尽管新的200毫米产能将于2021年推出，但代工厂可能有点不愿意投资这种略显过时的技术，因为一旦生产成本足够低，基于300毫米晶圆的生产仍有望接管。</li><li>这意味着与需求相比，供应预计将保持疲软。</li></ul><b>大部分晶圆产能集中在亚洲</b></blockquote></p><p> Manufacturers of electronic devices generally outsource their semiconductor production partially to large so-called foundries such as TSMC, which produce wafers for third parties. Most installed wafer capacity (the capacity to process blank silicon wafers into chips) is based in Taiwan and South Korea. China and Japan also represent a significant share. Altogether 70-75% of supply is sourced from Asia.</p><p><blockquote>电子设备制造商通常将半导体生产部分外包给台积电等大型所谓代工厂，这些代工厂为第三方生产晶圆。大多数已安装的硅片产能（将空白硅片加工成芯片的产能）位于台湾和韩国。中国和日本也占了很大的份额。总共70-75%的供应来自亚洲。</blockquote></p><p> Only a small portion is produced in Europe, making the continent dependent and sensitive to delivery issues. That’s why the EU aims to create more capacity in its own region, and the US also intends to ramp up chip production as part of President Biden’s recently announced stimulus plan.</p><p><blockquote>只有一小部分是在欧洲生产的，这使得欧洲大陆对交付问题依赖和敏感。这就是为什么欧盟的目标是在自己的地区创造更多产能，美国也打算提高芯片产量，作为拜登总统最近宣布的刺激计划的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Share of installed wafer capacity per region</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各地区晶圆装机量份额</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b76d46b89e8aaf9673bfc593bdfd8d8\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Bain &amp; Company, ING Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：贝恩公司、荷兰国际集团研究部</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Consumer electronics uses almost 75% of chip supplies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>消费电子产品使用了近75%的芯片供应</b></blockquote></p><p> In a digitalising world with fast-growing data volumes, various production sectors are increasingly dependent on chip supplies. Manufacturers of laptops and smartphones are obviously the largest consumers of chips, taking almost 75% of the pie. The remainder is delivered to the automotive sector, other manufacturers and infrastructure purposes. However, as we've just mentioned, with objects being increasingly connected and with more intelligence being built in, demand for semiconductors from all sides is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>在数据量快速增长的数字化世界中，各个生产部门越来越依赖芯片供应。笔记本电脑和智能手机制造商显然是芯片的最大消费者，几乎占据了75%的份额。其余部分交付给汽车行业、其他制造商和基础设施用途。然而，正如我们刚才提到的，随着物体的日益连接和更多智能的内置，各方对半导体的需求都在上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Consumer electronics by far the largest chip user</b></p><p><blockquote><b>消费电子是迄今为止最大的芯片用户</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb51ca713018ea1885614dd617a09bf\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: IC Insights, figures Dec. 2020 (300mm), Dec. 2019 (200mm)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：IC Insights，2020年12月（300毫米）、2019年12月（200毫米）数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Automotive production takes a hit around the globe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球汽车生产受到打击</b></blockquote></p><p> The automotive industry has been especially hit hard by the semiconductor shortage. This is partly due to the common just-in-time manufacturing strategy. When automotive production was down 40% in the early days of the pandemic, many orders for car parts including semiconductors were cancelled. As demand for semiconductors recovered more quickly than expected, the spare production capacity has been allocated away from clients in the industry.</p><p><blockquote>汽车行业受到半导体短缺的打击尤其严重。这部分是由于常见的准时制制造策略。当疫情初期汽车产量下降40%时，包括半导体在内的许多汽车零部件订单被取消。由于半导体需求恢复速度快于预期，闲置产能已从业内客户手中分配出去。</blockquote></p><p> Carmakers seem to have overestimated availability. In the second half of 2020, manufacturers were struggling to get their hands on semiconductors Consequently, these manufacturers cut or suspended production at sites worldwide for short periods.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商似乎高估了可用性。2020年下半年，制造商正在努力获得半导体，因此，这些制造商在全球范围内短期削减或暂停生产。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Global car production at lower levels in 1Q 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年第一季度全球汽车产量较低</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06ea47f72759ffb19c1896c47ec353e8\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: IHS Markit</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：IHS Markit</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Continuing chip shortage limits car production recovery in 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>芯片持续短缺限制2021年汽车产量复苏</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip shortages led to around a million fewer cars being produced in the first quarter of 2021, according to IHS Market; that's some 5% of total production, and there were fewer cars being made than in the previous quarter. Compared with last year, global production is starting to recovery, but it's not easy to keep up with demand due to supply issues. Order books are full and lead times for new cars are up. We still expect global new car registrations to bounce back moderately, but recovery is expected to remain limited and we'll see just a few percentage points rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据IHS Market的数据，芯片短缺导致2021年第一季度汽车产量减少约100万辆；这约占总产量的5%，而且汽车产量比上一季度有所减少。与去年相比，全球产量开始恢复，但由于供应问题，要跟上需求并不容易。订单已满，新车的交货时间也延长了。我们仍然预计全球新车注册量将温和反弹，但复苏预计仍然有限，我们只会看到几个百分点的上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shortages add to disruptions felt by manufacturing countries</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短缺加剧了制造国感受到的干扰</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In terms of impact, the disruption will be felt most in countries with a relatively large dependence on automotive manufacturing, such as Germany. Due to the popularity of lean manufacturing among automotive companies, production cuts will also be felt by automotive parts suppliers.</p><p><blockquote>就影响而言，对汽车制造业依赖度相对较大的国家，如德国，将感受到最大的破坏。由于精益制造在汽车企业中的普及，汽车零部件供应商也会感受到减产。</blockquote></p><p> Consumer electronics companies are also facing supply chain issues resulting from the semiconductor shortage, which will hit the likes of South Korea. However, this is partly a result of the strong performance of the historically high demand for consumer electronics. Compared to car makers, they seem to be in a better contractual position. Nevertheless, the industry would surely perform even better without the capacity constraints it's facing.</p><p><blockquote>消费电子公司还面临半导体短缺导致的供应链问题，这将打击韩国等国家。然而，这在一定程度上是消费电子产品历史高位需求的强劲表现的结果。与汽车制造商相比，他们似乎处于更好的合同地位。尽管如此，如果没有面临产能限制，该行业肯定会表现得更好。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1617971836454","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Semiconductors Are As Scarce As Gold<blockquote>为什么半导体像黄金一样稀缺</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Semiconductors Are As Scarce As Gold<blockquote>为什么半导体像黄金一样稀缺</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Think</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-09 20:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>A shortage of semiconductors is a continuing and major issue.</li>  <li>The squeezed market is forcing manufacturers to slow down, weighing on recovery.</li>  <li>And ongoing strong demand keeps the pressure on.</li>  <li>A&nbsp;ramp-up of capital investment&nbsp;to boost production capacity helps, but it's going to take time before demand and supply are structurally in sync again.</li> </ul> <b>Demand and supply shocks squeeze chip markets</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>半导体短缺是一个持续的重大问题。</li><li>受挤压的市场迫使制造商放慢脚步，拖累复苏。</li><li>持续强劲的需求使压力持续存在。</li><li>增加资本投资以提高产能会有所帮助，但需求和供应在结构上再次同步还需要时间。</li></ul><b>供需冲击挤压芯片市场</b></blockquote></p><p> Computer chips are in short supply due to a sudden spike in demand linked to Covid-19. This demand shock is primarily caused by consumers who can't splash the cash on services such as restaurants and travel and who are now spending more on consumer electronics. The strong demand for home office equipment and faster-than-expected recovery from other sectors are also not helping.</p><p><blockquote>由于与新冠肺炎相关的需求突然激增，计算机芯片供应短缺。这种需求冲击主要是由消费者造成的，他们无法在餐馆和旅游等服务上花钱，现在在消费电子产品上花费更多。对家庭办公设备的强劲需求和其他行业快于预期的复苏也于事无补。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, 5G cellular networks are rolling out and there's a subsequent rise in demand for new compatible smartphones. While most semiconductor factories operate at maximum capacity, breakdowns at four Texas facilities due to extreme cold and a fire at a Renesas Naka factory north of Tokyo worsened the situation going into the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，5G蜂窝网络正在推出，随之而来的是对新型兼容智能手机的需求上升。虽然大多数半导体工厂都在以最大产能运营，但德克萨斯州的四家工厂因极端寒冷而发生故障，以及东京北部的瑞萨纳卡工厂发生火灾，使第二季度的情况更加恶化。</blockquote></p><p> Suppliers of game consoles and smartphones are having real trouble meeting the demand for their products due to the semiconductor shortage. You can also see it in the automotive industry, where there've been production cuts and planned interruptions.</p><p><blockquote>由于半导体短缺，游戏机和智能手机供应商在满足其产品需求方面遇到了真正的困难。你也可以在汽车行业看到这一点，那里出现了减产和计划中断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Structural demand for chips is growing rapidly</b></p><p><blockquote><b>芯片结构性需求快速增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Although part of this demand shock is temporary, there's a structural dimension to rapidly expanding semiconductor usage. The market is expected to grow by double digits again in 2021, according to IC Insights. Many devices that used to be completely analogue are now digital and supported by integrated circuits. For example, smart thermostats or light bulbs compatible with home systems contain significant computational power to support their functionality as well as digital connectivity.</p><p><blockquote>尽管这种需求冲击部分是暂时的，但半导体使用的快速扩大存在结构性层面。根据IC Insights的数据，该市场预计将在2021年再次以两位数增长。许多过去完全模拟的设备现在都是数字化的，并由集成电路支持。例如，与家庭系统兼容的智能恒温器或灯泡包含强大的计算能力，以支持其功能以及数字连接。</blockquote></p><p> Cars and trucks also require an increasing number of semiconductors, thanks to the extension of integrated Advanced Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS) and board computers. The rise in the production of electric vehicles and future steps in autonomous driving will push demand up still further.</p><p><blockquote>由于集成式高级驾驶辅助系统（ADAS）和车载计算机的扩展，汽车和卡车也需要越来越多的半导体。电动汽车产量的增长和自动驾驶的未来举措将进一步推高需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Supply issues may spill into 2022</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应问题可能会蔓延到2022年</b></blockquote></p><p> Current lead times for chips can be as long as 26 weeks and up to a year for some specific variants. Recent incidents at facilities in the US and Japan put the lead times further under pressure. Despite significant planned investments in semiconductor production facilities, capacity will remain scarce well into the second half of 2021. Even if the acute shortage is resolved in the second half of the year, semi-conductor manufacturing lines will remain operating at near-full capacity in the coming years, making the industry sensitive to future supply shocks.</p><p><blockquote>目前芯片的交付周期可能长达26周，对于一些特定的变体，可能长达一年。美国和日本工厂最近发生的事件进一步给交货时间带来了压力。尽管计划对半导体生产设施进行大量投资，但到2021年下半年，产能仍将稀缺。即使严重的短缺问题在下半年得到解决，半导体生产线在未来几年仍将保持接近满负荷运行，这使得该行业对未来的供应冲击非常敏感。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital investment boost will raise capacity, but this takes time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本投资的增加将提高产能，但这需要时间</b></blockquote></p><p> In order to meet growing demand, chipmakers started to ramp up investments. The Taiwanese company, TSMC (TSM), is boosting capital expenditure from USD17 billion in 2020 to USD28 billion in 2021. On top of that, the company plans to invest still more, to the tune of some USD100 billion in the next three years, to grow capacity.</p><p><blockquote>为了满足不断增长的需求，芯片制造商开始加大投资。台湾公司台积电(TSM)将资本支出从2020年的170亿美元增加到2021年的280亿美元。除此之外，该公司计划在未来三年内投资更多，达到约1000亿美元，以扩大产能。</blockquote></p><p> Samsung (SSNLF) also plans to increase semiconductor-related capital expenditure by 20%, up to USD31 billion this year, and announced there’s more to follow. Although these soaring investments will let supply catch up, this takes time and won’t bring much relief this year. Remember, chip production machines have long lead times. In the meantime, we notice that chip manufactures are ending volume discounts and some are also raising prices.</p><p><blockquote>三星(SSNLF)还计划今年将半导体相关资本支出增加20%，达到310亿美元，并宣布后续还会有更多资本支出。尽管这些飙升的投资会让供应迎头赶上，但这需要时间，今年不会带来太多缓解。请记住，芯片生产机器的交货时间很长。与此同时，我们注意到芯片制造商正在结束批量折扣，一些制造商也在提高价格。</blockquote></p><p> The science bit</p><p><blockquote>科学位</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>Chip production starts with wafers. A wafer (slice of semiconductor) acts as a substrate for microelectronic devices. Many so-called integrated circuits are printed on 200mm silicon wafers, being provided by silicon producers. Since the introduction of 300mm wafers in 2002, 200mm wafers were expected to phase out. Therefore, most investments in production capacity have been directed to production lines based on 300mm wafers.</li>  <li>However, 200mm wafer-based production is technologically mature, offering relatively low development and production costs and very stable manufacturing processes. Therefore, many of the less-complex chips, such as sensors and transmitters and the more basic processing units, are still being developed based on this 200mm technology.</li>  <li>The rise of smart devices and the Internet of Things (IoT) causes an unanticipated rise in demand for 200mm production capacity, contributing to the shortage. Although fresh 200mm capacity is coming available in 2021, foundries may be a bit reluctant to invest in this slightly dated technology, since 300mm wafer-based production is still expected to take over once production costs are sufficiently low.</li>  <li>This means that supply is expected to remain weak compared to demand.</li> </ul> <b>Most wafer production capacity concentrated in Asia</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>芯片生产从晶圆开始。晶片（半导体切片）用作微电子器件的衬底。许多所谓的集成电路印刷在200毫米的硅片上，由硅生产商提供。自2002年推出300mm晶圆以来，预计200mm晶圆将逐步淘汰。因此，大部分产能投资都投向了基于300mm晶圆的产线。</li><li>然而，基于200mm晶圆的生产技术成熟，开发和生产成本相对较低，制造工艺非常稳定。因此，许多不太复杂的芯片，如传感器和发射器以及更基本的处理单元，仍然基于这种200mm技术进行开发。</li><li>智能设备和物联网(IoT)的兴起导致对200mm产能的需求意外增加，从而导致短缺。尽管新的200毫米产能将于2021年推出，但代工厂可能有点不愿意投资这种略显过时的技术，因为一旦生产成本足够低，基于300毫米晶圆的生产仍有望接管。</li><li>这意味着与需求相比，供应预计将保持疲软。</li></ul><b>大部分晶圆产能集中在亚洲</b></blockquote></p><p> Manufacturers of electronic devices generally outsource their semiconductor production partially to large so-called foundries such as TSMC, which produce wafers for third parties. Most installed wafer capacity (the capacity to process blank silicon wafers into chips) is based in Taiwan and South Korea. China and Japan also represent a significant share. Altogether 70-75% of supply is sourced from Asia.</p><p><blockquote>电子设备制造商通常将半导体生产部分外包给台积电等大型所谓代工厂，这些代工厂为第三方生产晶圆。大多数已安装的硅片产能（将空白硅片加工成芯片的产能）位于台湾和韩国。中国和日本也占了很大的份额。总共70-75%的供应来自亚洲。</blockquote></p><p> Only a small portion is produced in Europe, making the continent dependent and sensitive to delivery issues. That’s why the EU aims to create more capacity in its own region, and the US also intends to ramp up chip production as part of President Biden’s recently announced stimulus plan.</p><p><blockquote>只有一小部分是在欧洲生产的，这使得欧洲大陆对交付问题依赖和敏感。这就是为什么欧盟的目标是在自己的地区创造更多产能，美国也打算提高芯片产量，作为拜登总统最近宣布的刺激计划的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Share of installed wafer capacity per region</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各地区晶圆装机量份额</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b76d46b89e8aaf9673bfc593bdfd8d8\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Bain &amp; Company, ING Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：贝恩公司、荷兰国际集团研究部</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Consumer electronics uses almost 75% of chip supplies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>消费电子产品使用了近75%的芯片供应</b></blockquote></p><p> In a digitalising world with fast-growing data volumes, various production sectors are increasingly dependent on chip supplies. Manufacturers of laptops and smartphones are obviously the largest consumers of chips, taking almost 75% of the pie. The remainder is delivered to the automotive sector, other manufacturers and infrastructure purposes. However, as we've just mentioned, with objects being increasingly connected and with more intelligence being built in, demand for semiconductors from all sides is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>在数据量快速增长的数字化世界中，各个生产部门越来越依赖芯片供应。笔记本电脑和智能手机制造商显然是芯片的最大消费者，几乎占据了75%的份额。其余部分交付给汽车行业、其他制造商和基础设施用途。然而，正如我们刚才提到的，随着物体的日益连接和更多智能的内置，各方对半导体的需求都在上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Consumer electronics by far the largest chip user</b></p><p><blockquote><b>消费电子是迄今为止最大的芯片用户</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb51ca713018ea1885614dd617a09bf\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: IC Insights, figures Dec. 2020 (300mm), Dec. 2019 (200mm)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：IC Insights，2020年12月（300毫米）、2019年12月（200毫米）数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Automotive production takes a hit around the globe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球汽车生产受到打击</b></blockquote></p><p> The automotive industry has been especially hit hard by the semiconductor shortage. This is partly due to the common just-in-time manufacturing strategy. When automotive production was down 40% in the early days of the pandemic, many orders for car parts including semiconductors were cancelled. As demand for semiconductors recovered more quickly than expected, the spare production capacity has been allocated away from clients in the industry.</p><p><blockquote>汽车行业受到半导体短缺的打击尤其严重。这部分是由于常见的准时制制造策略。当疫情初期汽车产量下降40%时，包括半导体在内的许多汽车零部件订单被取消。由于半导体需求恢复速度快于预期，闲置产能已从业内客户手中分配出去。</blockquote></p><p> Carmakers seem to have overestimated availability. In the second half of 2020, manufacturers were struggling to get their hands on semiconductors Consequently, these manufacturers cut or suspended production at sites worldwide for short periods.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商似乎高估了可用性。2020年下半年，制造商正在努力获得半导体，因此，这些制造商在全球范围内短期削减或暂停生产。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Global car production at lower levels in 1Q 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年第一季度全球汽车产量较低</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06ea47f72759ffb19c1896c47ec353e8\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: IHS Markit</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：IHS Markit</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Continuing chip shortage limits car production recovery in 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>芯片持续短缺限制2021年汽车产量复苏</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip shortages led to around a million fewer cars being produced in the first quarter of 2021, according to IHS Market; that's some 5% of total production, and there were fewer cars being made than in the previous quarter. Compared with last year, global production is starting to recovery, but it's not easy to keep up with demand due to supply issues. Order books are full and lead times for new cars are up. We still expect global new car registrations to bounce back moderately, but recovery is expected to remain limited and we'll see just a few percentage points rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据IHS Market的数据，芯片短缺导致2021年第一季度汽车产量减少约100万辆；这约占总产量的5%，而且汽车产量比上一季度有所减少。与去年相比，全球产量开始恢复，但由于供应问题，要跟上需求并不容易。订单已满，新车的交货时间也延长了。我们仍然预计全球新车注册量将温和反弹，但复苏预计仍然有限，我们只会看到几个百分点的上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shortages add to disruptions felt by manufacturing countries</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短缺加剧了制造国感受到的干扰</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In terms of impact, the disruption will be felt most in countries with a relatively large dependence on automotive manufacturing, such as Germany. Due to the popularity of lean manufacturing among automotive companies, production cuts will also be felt by automotive parts suppliers.</p><p><blockquote>就影响而言，对汽车制造业依赖度相对较大的国家，如德国，将感受到最大的破坏。由于精益制造在汽车企业中的普及，汽车零部件供应商也会感受到减产。</blockquote></p><p> Consumer electronics companies are also facing supply chain issues resulting from the semiconductor shortage, which will hit the likes of South Korea. However, this is partly a result of the strong performance of the historically high demand for consumer electronics. Compared to car makers, they seem to be in a better contractual position. Nevertheless, the industry would surely perform even better without the capacity constraints it's facing.</p><p><blockquote>消费电子公司还面临半导体短缺导致的供应链问题，这将打击韩国等国家。然而，这在一定程度上是消费电子产品历史高位需求的强劲表现的结果。与汽车制造商相比，他们似乎处于更好的合同地位。尽管如此，如果没有面临产能限制，该行业肯定会表现得更好。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://think.ing.com/articles/why-semiconductors-have-become-scarce-as-gold\">Think</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","TSM":"台积电",".DJI":"道琼斯","QCOM":"高通","SSNLF":"三星电子","INTC":"英特尔","00981":"中芯国际",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","AMD":"美国超微公司",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://think.ing.com/articles/why-semiconductors-have-become-scarce-as-gold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115040048","content_text":"Summary\n\nA shortage of semiconductors is a continuing and major issue.\nThe squeezed market is forcing manufacturers to slow down, weighing on recovery.\nAnd ongoing strong demand keeps the pressure on.\nA ramp-up of capital investment to boost production capacity helps, but it's going to take time before demand and supply are structurally in sync again.\n\nDemand and supply shocks squeeze chip markets\nComputer chips are in short supply due to a sudden spike in demand linked to Covid-19. This demand shock is primarily caused by consumers who can't splash the cash on services such as restaurants and travel and who are now spending more on consumer electronics. The strong demand for home office equipment and faster-than-expected recovery from other sectors are also not helping.\nOn top of that, 5G cellular networks are rolling out and there's a subsequent rise in demand for new compatible smartphones. While most semiconductor factories operate at maximum capacity, breakdowns at four Texas facilities due to extreme cold and a fire at a Renesas Naka factory north of Tokyo worsened the situation going into the second quarter.\nSuppliers of game consoles and smartphones are having real trouble meeting the demand for their products due to the semiconductor shortage. You can also see it in the automotive industry, where there've been production cuts and planned interruptions.\nStructural demand for chips is growing rapidly\nAlthough part of this demand shock is temporary, there's a structural dimension to rapidly expanding semiconductor usage. The market is expected to grow by double digits again in 2021, according to IC Insights. Many devices that used to be completely analogue are now digital and supported by integrated circuits. For example, smart thermostats or light bulbs compatible with home systems contain significant computational power to support their functionality as well as digital connectivity.\nCars and trucks also require an increasing number of semiconductors, thanks to the extension of integrated Advanced Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS) and board computers. The rise in the production of electric vehicles and future steps in autonomous driving will push demand up still further.\nSupply issues may spill into 2022\nCurrent lead times for chips can be as long as 26 weeks and up to a year for some specific variants. Recent incidents at facilities in the US and Japan put the lead times further under pressure. Despite significant planned investments in semiconductor production facilities, capacity will remain scarce well into the second half of 2021. Even if the acute shortage is resolved in the second half of the year, semi-conductor manufacturing lines will remain operating at near-full capacity in the coming years, making the industry sensitive to future supply shocks.\nCapital investment boost will raise capacity, but this takes time\nIn order to meet growing demand, chipmakers started to ramp up investments. The Taiwanese company, TSMC (TSM), is boosting capital expenditure from USD17 billion in 2020 to USD28 billion in 2021. On top of that, the company plans to invest still more, to the tune of some USD100 billion in the next three years, to grow capacity.\nSamsung (SSNLF) also plans to increase semiconductor-related capital expenditure by 20%, up to USD31 billion this year, and announced there’s more to follow. Although these soaring investments will let supply catch up, this takes time and won’t bring much relief this year. Remember, chip production machines have long lead times. In the meantime, we notice that chip manufactures are ending volume discounts and some are also raising prices.\nThe science bit\n\nChip production starts with wafers. A wafer (slice of semiconductor) acts as a substrate for microelectronic devices. Many so-called integrated circuits are printed on 200mm silicon wafers, being provided by silicon producers. Since the introduction of 300mm wafers in 2002, 200mm wafers were expected to phase out. Therefore, most investments in production capacity have been directed to production lines based on 300mm wafers.\nHowever, 200mm wafer-based production is technologically mature, offering relatively low development and production costs and very stable manufacturing processes. Therefore, many of the less-complex chips, such as sensors and transmitters and the more basic processing units, are still being developed based on this 200mm technology.\nThe rise of smart devices and the Internet of Things (IoT) causes an unanticipated rise in demand for 200mm production capacity, contributing to the shortage. Although fresh 200mm capacity is coming available in 2021, foundries may be a bit reluctant to invest in this slightly dated technology, since 300mm wafer-based production is still expected to take over once production costs are sufficiently low.\nThis means that supply is expected to remain weak compared to demand.\n\nMost wafer production capacity concentrated in Asia\nManufacturers of electronic devices generally outsource their semiconductor production partially to large so-called foundries such as TSMC, which produce wafers for third parties. Most installed wafer capacity (the capacity to process blank silicon wafers into chips) is based in Taiwan and South Korea. China and Japan also represent a significant share. Altogether 70-75% of supply is sourced from Asia.\nOnly a small portion is produced in Europe, making the continent dependent and sensitive to delivery issues. That’s why the EU aims to create more capacity in its own region, and the US also intends to ramp up chip production as part of President Biden’s recently announced stimulus plan.\nShare of installed wafer capacity per region\nSource: Bain & Company, ING Research\nConsumer electronics uses almost 75% of chip supplies\nIn a digitalising world with fast-growing data volumes, various production sectors are increasingly dependent on chip supplies. Manufacturers of laptops and smartphones are obviously the largest consumers of chips, taking almost 75% of the pie. The remainder is delivered to the automotive sector, other manufacturers and infrastructure purposes. However, as we've just mentioned, with objects being increasingly connected and with more intelligence being built in, demand for semiconductors from all sides is on the rise.\nConsumer electronics by far the largest chip user\nSource: IC Insights, figures Dec. 2020 (300mm), Dec. 2019 (200mm)\nAutomotive production takes a hit around the globe\nThe automotive industry has been especially hit hard by the semiconductor shortage. This is partly due to the common just-in-time manufacturing strategy. When automotive production was down 40% in the early days of the pandemic, many orders for car parts including semiconductors were cancelled. As demand for semiconductors recovered more quickly than expected, the spare production capacity has been allocated away from clients in the industry.\nCarmakers seem to have overestimated availability. In the second half of 2020, manufacturers were struggling to get their hands on semiconductors Consequently, these manufacturers cut or suspended production at sites worldwide for short periods.\nGlobal car production at lower levels in 1Q 2021\nSource: IHS Markit\nContinuing chip shortage limits car production recovery in 2021\nChip shortages led to around a million fewer cars being produced in the first quarter of 2021, according to IHS Market; that's some 5% of total production, and there were fewer cars being made than in the previous quarter. Compared with last year, global production is starting to recovery, but it's not easy to keep up with demand due to supply issues. Order books are full and lead times for new cars are up. We still expect global new car registrations to bounce back moderately, but recovery is expected to remain limited and we'll see just a few percentage points rise.\nShortages add to disruptions felt by manufacturing countries\nIn terms of impact, the disruption will be felt most in countries with a relatively large dependence on automotive manufacturing, such as Germany. Due to the popularity of lean manufacturing among automotive companies, production cuts will also be felt by automotive parts suppliers.\nConsumer electronics companies are also facing supply chain issues resulting from the semiconductor shortage, which will hit the likes of South Korea. However, this is partly a result of the strong performance of the historically high demand for consumer electronics. Compared to car makers, they seem to be in a better contractual position. Nevertheless, the industry would surely perform even better without the capacity constraints it's facing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688981":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TSM":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"00981":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148246971,"gmtCreate":1625982715493,"gmtModify":1631893324166,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Choices to make when wear and tear sets in","listText":"Choices to make when wear and tear sets in","text":"Choices to make when wear and tear sets in","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148246971","repostId":"1166379040","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162758419,"gmtCreate":1624077153831,"gmtModify":1634010972157,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What goes down, let’s hope for the chance to rise up again especially for good companies [Bless]&nbsp;","listText":"What goes down, let’s hope for the chance to rise up again especially for good companies [Bless]&nbsp;","text":"What goes down, let’s hope for the chance to rise up again especially for good companies [Bless]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162758419","repostId":"1119296361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119296361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624028454,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119296361?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119296361","media":"Barrons","summary":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier","content":"<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储发布6月份货币政策声明时，银行股上涨，该声明指出加息时间早于预期。周四，他们是市场最大的输家之一。</blockquote></p><p> There’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.</p><p><blockquote>这是有充分理由的。银行通常通过短期借钱和长期借钱来赚钱，并从利差中获利。当长期利率上升速度快于短期利率时，银行利润率通常会提高，而当情况相反时，利润会恶化。</blockquote></p><p> After Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&amp;P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%</p><p><blockquote>周三会议结束后，10年期国债收益率大幅反弹，上涨0.071%至1.569%，而两年期国债收益率上涨0.038个百分点至0.203%，两者利差达到1.366个百分点。这种扩大使得金融业，尤其是银行股成为少数几个对美联储周三的声明做出积极反应的行业之一。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE)上涨0.9%，摩根大通(JPM)上涨0.7%，尽管标准普尔500指数下跌0.5%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.8%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.2%</blockquote></p><p> The market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&amp;P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经改变了主意。10年期国债收益率跌至1.498%，两年期国债收益率升至0.238%，差距为1.26个百分点。对于银行等利率敏感行业来说，所谓的收益率曲线变平是个坏消息。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF周四下跌4.5%，周五盘前交易下跌1%。摩根大通周四下跌2.9%，周五下跌约1%。周五标普500期货下跌0.6%，道指期货下跌0.8%。纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Why the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.</p><p><blockquote>市场为何大转变？为了让收益率继续上升，经济需要表明它正在迅速复苏。否则，投资者将押注美国在2008年金融危机后经历的缓慢增长。Evercore ISI策略师丹尼斯·德布斯切尔(Dennis DeBusschere)表示，由于周四初请失业金人数大幅下降，并在六周下降后首次上升，市场决定关注后者，而不是前者。他写道：“相对于所有人之前的想法，经济前景面临的风险是急剧转向鹰派，同时劳动力市场并不像美联储假设的那么强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> Until that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况改变之前，银行股将很难反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 23:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储发布6月份货币政策声明时，银行股上涨，该声明指出加息时间早于预期。周四，他们是市场最大的输家之一。</blockquote></p><p> There’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.</p><p><blockquote>这是有充分理由的。银行通常通过短期借钱和长期借钱来赚钱，并从利差中获利。当长期利率上升速度快于短期利率时，银行利润率通常会提高，而当情况相反时，利润会恶化。</blockquote></p><p> After Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&amp;P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%</p><p><blockquote>周三会议结束后，10年期国债收益率大幅反弹，上涨0.071%至1.569%，而两年期国债收益率上涨0.038个百分点至0.203%，两者利差达到1.366个百分点。这种扩大使得金融业，尤其是银行股成为少数几个对美联储周三的声明做出积极反应的行业之一。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE)上涨0.9%，摩根大通(JPM)上涨0.7%，尽管标准普尔500指数下跌0.5%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.8%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.2%</blockquote></p><p> The market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&amp;P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经改变了主意。10年期国债收益率跌至1.498%，两年期国债收益率升至0.238%，差距为1.26个百分点。对于银行等利率敏感行业来说，所谓的收益率曲线变平是个坏消息。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF周四下跌4.5%，周五盘前交易下跌1%。摩根大通周四下跌2.9%，周五下跌约1%。周五标普500期货下跌0.6%，道指期货下跌0.8%。纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Why the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.</p><p><blockquote>市场为何大转变？为了让收益率继续上升，经济需要表明它正在迅速复苏。否则，投资者将押注美国在2008年金融危机后经历的缓慢增长。Evercore ISI策略师丹尼斯·德布斯切尔(Dennis DeBusschere)表示，由于周四初请失业金人数大幅下降，并在六周下降后首次上升，市场决定关注后者，而不是前者。他写道：“相对于所有人之前的想法，经济前景面临的风险是急剧转向鹰派，同时劳动力市场并不像美联储假设的那么强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> Until that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况改变之前，银行股将很难反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通","BAC":"美国银行","GS":"高盛","MS":"摩根士丹利","WFC":"富国银行","C":"花旗"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119296361","content_text":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.\nThere’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.\nAfter Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%\nThe market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.\nWhy the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.\nUntil that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9,"WFC":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"C":0.9,"GS":0.9,"JPM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138176419,"gmtCreate":1621921656431,"gmtModify":1634185463091,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"More choices for consumers [Wow]&nbsp;","listText":"More choices for consumers [Wow]&nbsp;","text":"More choices for consumers [Wow]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138176419","repostId":"1108214541","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197573839,"gmtCreate":1621475991421,"gmtModify":1634188846352,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Both also like![Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Both also like![Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Both also like![Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197573839","repostId":"1189117782","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373097376,"gmtCreate":1618800649895,"gmtModify":1634290832654,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple event! [Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"Apple event! [Strong]&nbsp;","text":"Apple event! [Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373097376","repostId":"1162662309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162662309","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618762645,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162662309?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-19 00:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks To Watch: Apple Event, Disney Callout And Earnings Blitz<blockquote>值得关注的股票：苹果活动、迪士尼预告和盈利闪电战</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162662309","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Stocks to Watch - a preview of key events scheduled for the this week. Follow this account and turn the e-mail alert on to receive this article in your inbox every Saturday morning. A podcast of Stocks to Watch is also available on Sundays onSeeking Alpha,Apple Podcasts,StitcherandSpotify.Economic reports due out this week include the latest updates on existing home sales, new home sales, jobless claims and PMI. Big earnings reports blast in every day this week across ","content":"<p>Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Stocks to Watch - a preview of key events scheduled for the this week. Follow this account and turn the e-mail alert on to receive this article in your inbox every Saturday morning. A podcast of Stocks to Watch is also available on Sundays onSeeking Alpha,Apple Podcasts,StitcherandSpotify(click the highlighted links).</p><p><blockquote>欢迎来到Seeking Alpha的股票观看-本周计划的关键事件预览。关注此帐户并打开电子邮件提醒，每周六早上在您的收件箱中收到这篇文章。周日还可以在Seeking Alpha、苹果播客、Stitcher和Spotify上观看值得关注的股票播客（单击突出显示的链接）。</blockquote></p><p>Economic reports due out this week include the latest updates on existing home sales, new home sales, jobless claims and PMI. Big earnings reports blast in every day this week across sectors. Of note, the follow-up conference calls from Coca-Cola(NYSE:KO), Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)could be on the interesting side. On the vaccine front, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices is expected to meet late this week to consider recommendations for Johnson &amp; Johnson's(NYSE:JNJ)shot, which has been linked to rare blood clots in the brain.</p><p><blockquote>本周将发布的经济报告包括成屋销售、新屋销售、初请失业金人数和PMI的最新数据。本周各行业每天都会发布大型盈利报告。值得注意的是，可口可乐（纽约证券交易所股票代码：KO）、Netflix（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）的后续会议评级可能会很有趣。在疫苗方面，美国疾病控制与预防中心免疫实践咨询委员会预计将于本周晚些时候召开会议，考虑强生公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：JNJ）疫苗的建议，该疫苗与大脑中罕见的血栓有关。</blockquote></p><p><b>Earnings spotlight:</b>&nbsp;Earnings season heats up in a big way with reports due in from Coca-Cola (KO), IBM(NYSE:IBM)and United Airlines(NASDAQ:UAL)on April 19; Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ), Procter &amp; Gamble(NYSE:PG), Philip Morris International(NYSE:PM), Abbott Labs(NYSE:ABT)and Netflix (NFLX) on April 20; Anthem(NYSE:ANTM), Verizon(NYSE:VZ), Chipotle(NYSE:CMG)and Lam Research(NASDAQ:LRCX)on April 21; AT&amp;T(NYSE:T), Dow(NYSE:DOW), Intel (INTC), Seagate Tech(NASDAQ:STX)and Mattel(NASDAQ:MAT)on April 22; as well as American Express(NYSE:AXP)and Honeywell(NYSE:HON)on April 23.</p><p><blockquote><b>盈利聚焦：</b>随着可口可乐(KO)、IBM(NYSE：IBM)和联合航空(纳斯达克：UAL)将于4月19日发布报告，财报季大幅升温；4月20日，强生公司(JNJ)、宝洁公司(NYSE：PG)、菲利普莫里斯国际公司(NYSE：PM)、雅培实验室(NYSE：ABT)和Netflix(NFLX)；Anthem（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ANTM）、Verizon（纽约证券交易所股票代码：VZ）、Chipotle（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CMG）和Lam Research（纳斯达克股票代码：LRCX）4月21日；AT&amp;T（纽约证券交易所股票代码：T）、陶氏化学（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DOW）、英特尔（INTC）、希捷科技（纳斯达克股票代码：STX）和美泰（纳斯达克股票代码：MAT）4月22日；以及4月23日的美国运通（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AXP）和霍尼韦尔（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HON）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/522c9bdad799a71c4e6bad965f9f00f3\" tg-width=\"1530\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>IPO watch:</b>&nbsp;IPOs expected to start trading during the week include UiPAth (PATH), DoubleVerify (DV) and NeuroPace (NPCE) on April 20, as well as Zymergern (ZY) and KnowBe4 (KNBE) on April 22. IPO lockup periods expire on Datto Holding(NYSE:MSP), Topaz Energy(NYSE:TPZ), McAfee(NASDAQ:MCFE), Guild Holdings(NYSE:GHLD), Foghorn Therapeutics(NASDAQ:FHTX)and ComSovereign Holding(NASDAQ:COMS). The analyst quiet period expires on ThredUp(NASDAQ:TDUP)on April 20 to free up analysts to post ratings. Shares of Trip.com(NASDAQ:TRIP)will begin trading in Hong Kong this week following a new listing.</p><p><blockquote><b>IPO观察：</b>预计本周开始交易的IPO包括4月20日的UiPAth(PATH)、DoubleVerify(DV)和NeuroPace(NPCE)，以及4月22日的Zymergern(ZY)和KnowBe4(KNBE)。Datto Holding(NYSE：MSP)、Topaz Energy(NYSE：TPZ)、McAfee(纳斯达克：MCFE)、Guild Holdings(NYSE：GHLD)、Foghorn Therapeutics(纳斯达克：FHTX)和ComSovereign Holding(纳斯达克：COMS）。ThredUp（纳斯达克股票代码：TDUP）的分析师静默期将于4月20日到期，以便分析师可以发布评级。携程（纳斯达克股票代码：TRIP）的股票将于本周在香港上市后开始交易。</blockquote></p><p><b>Apple event:</b>&nbsp;Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)holds an event on April 20 called \"Spring Loaded\" to show off new products. Information out of Cupertino has been pretty tight, but the company could reveal new iPads, new iMacs, new AirPods, AirTags, a new Apple TV and possibly a new Apple Pencil.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果事件：</b>苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）将于4月20日举办名为“Spring Loaded”的活动，展示新产品。来自库比蒂诺的信息相当紧张，但该公司可能会发布新的iPad、新的iMac、新的AirPods、AirTags、新的苹果电视，可能还有新的苹果铅笔。</blockquote></p><p><b>Projected dividend increases (quarterly):</b>&nbsp;Expected dividend boosts for the week include Comfort Systems USA(NYSE:FIX)to $0.125 from $0.1115, HP Enterprise(NYSE:HPE)to $0.1275 from $0.12, Pool Corp(NASDAQ:POOL)to $0.61 from $0.58, Johnson &amp; Johnson to $1.06 from $1.01, Travelers(NYSE:TRV)to $0.88 from $0.85, Southern Company(NYSE:SO)to $0.66 from $0.64, Kinder Morgan(NYSE:KMI)to $0.27 from $0.2625 and Nasdaq(NASDAQ:NDAQ)to $0.50 from $0.49.</p><p><blockquote><b>预计股息增加（季度）：</b>预计本周股息上调包括Comfort Systems USA(NYSE：FIX)从0.1115美元上调至0.125美元，HP Enterprise(NYSE：HPE)从0.12美元上调至0.1275美元，Pool Corp(纳斯达克：POOL)从0.58美元上调至0.61美元，强生公司(NYSE：TRV)从0.85美元上调至0.88美元，南方公司(NYSE：SO)从0.64美元上调至0.66美元，金德摩根(NYSE：KMI)从0.2625美元上调至0.27美元，纳斯达克(纳斯达克：NDAQ)从0.49美元上调至0.50美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>M&amp;A tidbits:</b>&nbsp;The highly-anticipated Aphria(NASDAQ:APHA)-Tilray(NASDAQ:TLRY)merger is expected to close on April 20. The tender offer on the GenMark Diagnostics(NASDAQ:GNMK)-Roche(OTCQX:RHHBY)deal expires on April 21. GW Pharmaceuticals(NASDAQ:GWPH)shareholders vote on the Jazz Pharmaceuticals(NASDAQ:JAZZ)deal on April 23.</p><p><blockquote><b>并购花絮：</b>备受期待的Aphria（纳斯达克：APHA）-Tilray（纳斯达克：TLRY）合并预计将于4月20日完成。GenMark Diagnostics（纳斯达克：GNMK）-罗氏（OTCQX：RHHBY）交易的要约收购将于4月21日到期。GW Pharmaceuticals（纳斯达克股票代码：GWPH）股东将于4月23日就Jazz Pharmaceuticals（纳斯达克股票代码：JAZZ）交易进行投票。</blockquote></p><p><b>ARK Invest watch:</b>&nbsp;Investors may want to keep an eye on Coinbase Global(NASDAQ:COIN)after ARK Invest came in Friday with a purchase of 19,599 shares for the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKF)and 112,539 shares for the ARK Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKK). Cathie Wood's firm also defended Silvergate(NYSE:SI)after its mid-week stumble likely in response to the Coinbase IPO. \"Investors potentially took profits to diversify their exposure to crypto in the public markets. \"In our view, the Silvergate Exchange Network, with its strong network effects, positions Silvergate as both a facilitator and a prime beneficiary of increased crypto adoption,\" ARK reasons.</p><p><blockquote><b>方舟投资观察：</b>在ARK Invest周五购买了19,599股ARK Fintech Innovation ETF（NYSEARCA：ARKF）和112,539股ARK Innovation ETF（NYSEARCA：ARKF）后，投资者可能需要关注Coinbase Global（纳斯达克：COIN）：ARKK）。Cathie Wood的公司还为Silvergate(NYSE：SI)进行了辩护，此前Silvergate(NYSE：SI)在周中因Coinbase IPO而出现失误。“投资者可能会获利了结，以分散他们在公开市场上对加密货币的投资。”我们认为，Silvergate交换网络凭借其强大的网络效应，使Silvergate既是加密货币采用增加的推动者，也是主要受益者，”ARK解释道。</blockquote></p><p><b>Corporate spotlight:</b>&nbsp;Major events this week include strategic updates from Advance Auto Parts(NYSE:AAP)and Royal Gold(NYSE:GOLD)on April 20, as well as investor days for Dye &amp; Durham(OTC:DYNDF)and SMART Global(NASDAQ:SGH). On April 21, MGM Resorts(NYSE:MGM)and Entain(OTCPK:GMVHF)along with their U.S. venture BetMGM will host a business update event for analysts and investors. The event will provide deeper insights into the rapidly growing U.S. sports betting and iGaming business of BetMGM. A new forecast on the industry's total addressable market could be a share price catalyst for DraftKings(NASDAQ:DKNG)and Penn National Gaming(NASDAQ:PENN)as well. Check outSeeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch for a detailed list of more events to watch.</p><p><blockquote><b>企业聚焦：</b>本周的重大活动包括Advance Auto Parts(NYSE：AAP)和Royal Gold(NYSE：GOLD)4月20日的战略更新，以及Dye&amp;Durham(OTC：DYNDF)和SMART Global(纳斯达克：SGH)的投资者日。4月21日，米高梅度假村(NYSE：MGM)和Entain(OTCPK：GMVHF)及其美国合资企业BetMGM将为分析师和投资者举办业务更新活动。该活动将让人们更深入地了解BetMGM快速增长的美国体育博彩和iGaming业务。对该行业总潜在市场的新预测也可能成为DraftKings（纳斯达克：DKNG）和Penn National Gaming（纳斯达克：PENN）的股价催化剂。查看outSeeking Alpha的Catalyst Watch，了解更多值得关注的活动的详细列表。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>Conferences rundown:</b>&nbsp;Notable conferences running during the week include the H.C Wainwright Spring Mining Conference, Linley Spring Processor Conference 2021, the Kempen Life Sciences Conference, the Jefferies Microbiome-based Therapeutics Summit 2021 and the Stifel GMP &amp; Stifel First Energy Canada Cross Sector Insight Conference 2021. Check outSeeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch for a detailed list of events to watch.</p><p><blockquote><b>会议概要：</b>本周举行的著名会议包括H.C Wainwright春季采矿会议、2021年Linley春季处理器会议、Kempen生命科学会议、2021年Jefferies基于微生物组的治疗峰会以及2021年Stifel GMP和Stifel First Energy Canada跨部门洞察会议。查看outSeeking Alpha的Catalyst手表，了解要观看的事件的详细列表。</blockquote></p><p><b>Barron's mentions:</b>&nbsp;Disney(NYSE:DIS)makes the cover of Barron's this week as the media giant is given credit for positioning itself for post-COVID growth. Disney is said to have come out ahead after CEO Bob Chapek and team faced the severest of financial stress tests. \"When parks and theaters emptied out a year ago, costs kept rolling in, and the fastest-growing part of the business, streaming, was consuming cash—as it still is. Yet, Disney generated $3.6 billion in free cash during its fiscal year ended last September. It’s seen producing $3.3 billion this year before the numbers begin a sharp rebound,\" notes Jack Hough. While the movie business is still sputtering to restart and the TV business is seen holding steady at best, streaming results have shattered forecasts. Disney+ smashed expectations in piling up 100M in less than 18 months, compared to the 10 years it took Netflix to hit that level. Disney is targeting 300M to 350M subscribers by 2024 across all of its streaming platforms, including Hulu, ESPN+, Hotstar in India, and Star+ in Latin America (launches in June). PetIQ(NASDAQ:PETQ)and O'Reilly Automotive(NASDAQ:ORLY)also land favorable write-ups this week.</p><p><blockquote><b>《巴伦周刊》提到：</b>迪士尼（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）本周登上了《巴伦周刊》的封面，这家媒体巨头因为新冠疫情后的增长做好了定位而受到赞誉。据说，在首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克和团队面临最严峻的财务压力测试后，迪士尼脱颖而出。“一年前，当公园和剧院空无一人时，成本不断滚滚而来，流媒体业务增长最快的部分正在消耗现金——现在仍然如此。然而，迪士尼在截至去年9月的财年中产生了36亿美元的自由现金。在数字开始大幅反弹之前，今年的收入为33亿美元，”杰克·霍夫指出。虽然电影业务仍在艰难重启，电视业务充其量也保持稳定，但流媒体业绩却超出了预期。Disney+在不到18个月的时间里积累了1亿美元，超出了预期，而Netflix花了10年时间才达到这一水平。迪士尼的目标是到2024年在其所有流媒体平台上拥有3亿至3.5亿用户，包括印度的Hulu、ESPN+、Hotstar和拉丁美洲的Star+（6月推出）。PetIQ（纳斯达克股票代码：PETQ）和O’Reilly Automotive（纳斯达克股票代码：ORLY）本周也获得了好评。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks To Watch: Apple Event, Disney Callout And Earnings Blitz<blockquote>值得关注的股票：苹果活动、迪士尼预告和盈利闪电战</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks To Watch: Apple Event, Disney Callout And Earnings Blitz<blockquote>值得关注的股票：苹果活动、迪士尼预告和盈利闪电战</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-19 00:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Stocks to Watch - a preview of key events scheduled for the this week. Follow this account and turn the e-mail alert on to receive this article in your inbox every Saturday morning. A podcast of Stocks to Watch is also available on Sundays onSeeking Alpha,Apple Podcasts,StitcherandSpotify(click the highlighted links).</p><p><blockquote>欢迎来到Seeking Alpha的股票观看-本周计划的关键事件预览。关注此帐户并打开电子邮件提醒，每周六早上在您的收件箱中收到这篇文章。周日还可以在Seeking Alpha、苹果播客、Stitcher和Spotify上观看值得关注的股票播客（单击突出显示的链接）。</blockquote></p><p>Economic reports due out this week include the latest updates on existing home sales, new home sales, jobless claims and PMI. Big earnings reports blast in every day this week across sectors. Of note, the follow-up conference calls from Coca-Cola(NYSE:KO), Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)could be on the interesting side. On the vaccine front, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices is expected to meet late this week to consider recommendations for Johnson &amp; Johnson's(NYSE:JNJ)shot, which has been linked to rare blood clots in the brain.</p><p><blockquote>本周将发布的经济报告包括成屋销售、新屋销售、初请失业金人数和PMI的最新数据。本周各行业每天都会发布大型盈利报告。值得注意的是，可口可乐（纽约证券交易所股票代码：KO）、Netflix（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）的后续会议评级可能会很有趣。在疫苗方面，美国疾病控制与预防中心免疫实践咨询委员会预计将于本周晚些时候召开会议，考虑强生公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：JNJ）疫苗的建议，该疫苗与大脑中罕见的血栓有关。</blockquote></p><p><b>Earnings spotlight:</b>&nbsp;Earnings season heats up in a big way with reports due in from Coca-Cola (KO), IBM(NYSE:IBM)and United Airlines(NASDAQ:UAL)on April 19; Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ), Procter &amp; Gamble(NYSE:PG), Philip Morris International(NYSE:PM), Abbott Labs(NYSE:ABT)and Netflix (NFLX) on April 20; Anthem(NYSE:ANTM), Verizon(NYSE:VZ), Chipotle(NYSE:CMG)and Lam Research(NASDAQ:LRCX)on April 21; AT&amp;T(NYSE:T), Dow(NYSE:DOW), Intel (INTC), Seagate Tech(NASDAQ:STX)and Mattel(NASDAQ:MAT)on April 22; as well as American Express(NYSE:AXP)and Honeywell(NYSE:HON)on April 23.</p><p><blockquote><b>盈利聚焦：</b>随着可口可乐(KO)、IBM(NYSE：IBM)和联合航空(纳斯达克：UAL)将于4月19日发布报告，财报季大幅升温；4月20日，强生公司(JNJ)、宝洁公司(NYSE：PG)、菲利普莫里斯国际公司(NYSE：PM)、雅培实验室(NYSE：ABT)和Netflix(NFLX)；Anthem（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ANTM）、Verizon（纽约证券交易所股票代码：VZ）、Chipotle（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CMG）和Lam Research（纳斯达克股票代码：LRCX）4月21日；AT&amp;T（纽约证券交易所股票代码：T）、陶氏化学（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DOW）、英特尔（INTC）、希捷科技（纳斯达克股票代码：STX）和美泰（纳斯达克股票代码：MAT）4月22日；以及4月23日的美国运通（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AXP）和霍尼韦尔（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HON）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/522c9bdad799a71c4e6bad965f9f00f3\" tg-width=\"1530\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>IPO watch:</b>&nbsp;IPOs expected to start trading during the week include UiPAth (PATH), DoubleVerify (DV) and NeuroPace (NPCE) on April 20, as well as Zymergern (ZY) and KnowBe4 (KNBE) on April 22. IPO lockup periods expire on Datto Holding(NYSE:MSP), Topaz Energy(NYSE:TPZ), McAfee(NASDAQ:MCFE), Guild Holdings(NYSE:GHLD), Foghorn Therapeutics(NASDAQ:FHTX)and ComSovereign Holding(NASDAQ:COMS). The analyst quiet period expires on ThredUp(NASDAQ:TDUP)on April 20 to free up analysts to post ratings. Shares of Trip.com(NASDAQ:TRIP)will begin trading in Hong Kong this week following a new listing.</p><p><blockquote><b>IPO观察：</b>预计本周开始交易的IPO包括4月20日的UiPAth(PATH)、DoubleVerify(DV)和NeuroPace(NPCE)，以及4月22日的Zymergern(ZY)和KnowBe4(KNBE)。Datto Holding(NYSE：MSP)、Topaz Energy(NYSE：TPZ)、McAfee(纳斯达克：MCFE)、Guild Holdings(NYSE：GHLD)、Foghorn Therapeutics(纳斯达克：FHTX)和ComSovereign Holding(纳斯达克：COMS）。ThredUp（纳斯达克股票代码：TDUP）的分析师静默期将于4月20日到期，以便分析师可以发布评级。携程（纳斯达克股票代码：TRIP）的股票将于本周在香港上市后开始交易。</blockquote></p><p><b>Apple event:</b>&nbsp;Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)holds an event on April 20 called \"Spring Loaded\" to show off new products. Information out of Cupertino has been pretty tight, but the company could reveal new iPads, new iMacs, new AirPods, AirTags, a new Apple TV and possibly a new Apple Pencil.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果事件：</b>苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）将于4月20日举办名为“Spring Loaded”的活动，展示新产品。来自库比蒂诺的信息相当紧张，但该公司可能会发布新的iPad、新的iMac、新的AirPods、AirTags、新的苹果电视，可能还有新的苹果铅笔。</blockquote></p><p><b>Projected dividend increases (quarterly):</b>&nbsp;Expected dividend boosts for the week include Comfort Systems USA(NYSE:FIX)to $0.125 from $0.1115, HP Enterprise(NYSE:HPE)to $0.1275 from $0.12, Pool Corp(NASDAQ:POOL)to $0.61 from $0.58, Johnson &amp; Johnson to $1.06 from $1.01, Travelers(NYSE:TRV)to $0.88 from $0.85, Southern Company(NYSE:SO)to $0.66 from $0.64, Kinder Morgan(NYSE:KMI)to $0.27 from $0.2625 and Nasdaq(NASDAQ:NDAQ)to $0.50 from $0.49.</p><p><blockquote><b>预计股息增加（季度）：</b>预计本周股息上调包括Comfort Systems USA(NYSE：FIX)从0.1115美元上调至0.125美元，HP Enterprise(NYSE：HPE)从0.12美元上调至0.1275美元，Pool Corp(纳斯达克：POOL)从0.58美元上调至0.61美元，强生公司(NYSE：TRV)从0.85美元上调至0.88美元，南方公司(NYSE：SO)从0.64美元上调至0.66美元，金德摩根(NYSE：KMI)从0.2625美元上调至0.27美元，纳斯达克(纳斯达克：NDAQ)从0.49美元上调至0.50美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>M&amp;A tidbits:</b>&nbsp;The highly-anticipated Aphria(NASDAQ:APHA)-Tilray(NASDAQ:TLRY)merger is expected to close on April 20. The tender offer on the GenMark Diagnostics(NASDAQ:GNMK)-Roche(OTCQX:RHHBY)deal expires on April 21. GW Pharmaceuticals(NASDAQ:GWPH)shareholders vote on the Jazz Pharmaceuticals(NASDAQ:JAZZ)deal on April 23.</p><p><blockquote><b>并购花絮：</b>备受期待的Aphria（纳斯达克：APHA）-Tilray（纳斯达克：TLRY）合并预计将于4月20日完成。GenMark Diagnostics（纳斯达克：GNMK）-罗氏（OTCQX：RHHBY）交易的要约收购将于4月21日到期。GW Pharmaceuticals（纳斯达克股票代码：GWPH）股东将于4月23日就Jazz Pharmaceuticals（纳斯达克股票代码：JAZZ）交易进行投票。</blockquote></p><p><b>ARK Invest watch:</b>&nbsp;Investors may want to keep an eye on Coinbase Global(NASDAQ:COIN)after ARK Invest came in Friday with a purchase of 19,599 shares for the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKF)and 112,539 shares for the ARK Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKK). Cathie Wood's firm also defended Silvergate(NYSE:SI)after its mid-week stumble likely in response to the Coinbase IPO. \"Investors potentially took profits to diversify their exposure to crypto in the public markets. \"In our view, the Silvergate Exchange Network, with its strong network effects, positions Silvergate as both a facilitator and a prime beneficiary of increased crypto adoption,\" ARK reasons.</p><p><blockquote><b>方舟投资观察：</b>在ARK Invest周五购买了19,599股ARK Fintech Innovation ETF（NYSEARCA：ARKF）和112,539股ARK Innovation ETF（NYSEARCA：ARKF）后，投资者可能需要关注Coinbase Global（纳斯达克：COIN）：ARKK）。Cathie Wood的公司还为Silvergate(NYSE：SI)进行了辩护，此前Silvergate(NYSE：SI)在周中因Coinbase IPO而出现失误。“投资者可能会获利了结，以分散他们在公开市场上对加密货币的投资。”我们认为，Silvergate交换网络凭借其强大的网络效应，使Silvergate既是加密货币采用增加的推动者，也是主要受益者，”ARK解释道。</blockquote></p><p><b>Corporate spotlight:</b>&nbsp;Major events this week include strategic updates from Advance Auto Parts(NYSE:AAP)and Royal Gold(NYSE:GOLD)on April 20, as well as investor days for Dye &amp; Durham(OTC:DYNDF)and SMART Global(NASDAQ:SGH). On April 21, MGM Resorts(NYSE:MGM)and Entain(OTCPK:GMVHF)along with their U.S. venture BetMGM will host a business update event for analysts and investors. The event will provide deeper insights into the rapidly growing U.S. sports betting and iGaming business of BetMGM. A new forecast on the industry's total addressable market could be a share price catalyst for DraftKings(NASDAQ:DKNG)and Penn National Gaming(NASDAQ:PENN)as well. Check outSeeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch for a detailed list of more events to watch.</p><p><blockquote><b>企业聚焦：</b>本周的重大活动包括Advance Auto Parts(NYSE：AAP)和Royal Gold(NYSE：GOLD)4月20日的战略更新，以及Dye&amp;Durham(OTC：DYNDF)和SMART Global(纳斯达克：SGH)的投资者日。4月21日，米高梅度假村(NYSE：MGM)和Entain(OTCPK：GMVHF)及其美国合资企业BetMGM将为分析师和投资者举办业务更新活动。该活动将让人们更深入地了解BetMGM快速增长的美国体育博彩和iGaming业务。对该行业总潜在市场的新预测也可能成为DraftKings（纳斯达克：DKNG）和Penn National Gaming（纳斯达克：PENN）的股价催化剂。查看outSeeking Alpha的Catalyst Watch，了解更多值得关注的活动的详细列表。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>Conferences rundown:</b>&nbsp;Notable conferences running during the week include the H.C Wainwright Spring Mining Conference, Linley Spring Processor Conference 2021, the Kempen Life Sciences Conference, the Jefferies Microbiome-based Therapeutics Summit 2021 and the Stifel GMP &amp; Stifel First Energy Canada Cross Sector Insight Conference 2021. Check outSeeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch for a detailed list of events to watch.</p><p><blockquote><b>会议概要：</b>本周举行的著名会议包括H.C Wainwright春季采矿会议、2021年Linley春季处理器会议、Kempen生命科学会议、2021年Jefferies基于微生物组的治疗峰会以及2021年Stifel GMP和Stifel First Energy Canada跨部门洞察会议。查看outSeeking Alpha的Catalyst手表，了解要观看的事件的详细列表。</blockquote></p><p><b>Barron's mentions:</b>&nbsp;Disney(NYSE:DIS)makes the cover of Barron's this week as the media giant is given credit for positioning itself for post-COVID growth. Disney is said to have come out ahead after CEO Bob Chapek and team faced the severest of financial stress tests. \"When parks and theaters emptied out a year ago, costs kept rolling in, and the fastest-growing part of the business, streaming, was consuming cash—as it still is. Yet, Disney generated $3.6 billion in free cash during its fiscal year ended last September. It’s seen producing $3.3 billion this year before the numbers begin a sharp rebound,\" notes Jack Hough. While the movie business is still sputtering to restart and the TV business is seen holding steady at best, streaming results have shattered forecasts. Disney+ smashed expectations in piling up 100M in less than 18 months, compared to the 10 years it took Netflix to hit that level. Disney is targeting 300M to 350M subscribers by 2024 across all of its streaming platforms, including Hulu, ESPN+, Hotstar in India, and Star+ in Latin America (launches in June). PetIQ(NASDAQ:PETQ)and O'Reilly Automotive(NASDAQ:ORLY)also land favorable write-ups this week.</p><p><blockquote><b>《巴伦周刊》提到：</b>迪士尼（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）本周登上了《巴伦周刊》的封面，这家媒体巨头因为新冠疫情后的增长做好了定位而受到赞誉。据说，在首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克和团队面临最严峻的财务压力测试后，迪士尼脱颖而出。“一年前，当公园和剧院空无一人时，成本不断滚滚而来，流媒体业务增长最快的部分正在消耗现金——现在仍然如此。然而，迪士尼在截至去年9月的财年中产生了36亿美元的自由现金。在数字开始大幅反弹之前，今年的收入为33亿美元，”杰克·霍夫指出。虽然电影业务仍在艰难重启，电视业务充其量也保持稳定，但流媒体业绩却超出了预期。Disney+在不到18个月的时间里积累了1亿美元，超出了预期，而Netflix花了10年时间才达到这一水平。迪士尼的目标是到2024年在其所有流媒体平台上拥有3亿至3.5亿用户，包括印度的Hulu、ESPN+、Hotstar和拉丁美洲的Star+（6月推出）。PetIQ（纳斯达克股票代码：PETQ）和O’Reilly Automotive（纳斯达克股票代码：ORLY）本周也获得了好评。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419571-stocks-to-watch-apple-event-disney-callout-and-earnings-blitz\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419571-stocks-to-watch-apple-event-disney-callout-and-earnings-blitz","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162662309","content_text":"Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Stocks to Watch - a preview of key events scheduled for the this week. Follow this account and turn the e-mail alert on to receive this article in your inbox every Saturday morning. A podcast of Stocks to Watch is also available on Sundays onSeeking Alpha,Apple Podcasts,StitcherandSpotify(click the highlighted links).Economic reports due out this week include the latest updates on existing home sales, new home sales, jobless claims and PMI. Big earnings reports blast in every day this week across sectors. Of note, the follow-up conference calls from Coca-Cola(NYSE:KO), Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)could be on the interesting side. On the vaccine front, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices is expected to meet late this week to consider recommendations for Johnson & Johnson's(NYSE:JNJ)shot, which has been linked to rare blood clots in the brain.Earnings spotlight: Earnings season heats up in a big way with reports due in from Coca-Cola (KO), IBM(NYSE:IBM)and United Airlines(NASDAQ:UAL)on April 19; Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Procter & Gamble(NYSE:PG), Philip Morris International(NYSE:PM), Abbott Labs(NYSE:ABT)and Netflix (NFLX) on April 20; Anthem(NYSE:ANTM), Verizon(NYSE:VZ), Chipotle(NYSE:CMG)and Lam Research(NASDAQ:LRCX)on April 21; AT&T(NYSE:T), Dow(NYSE:DOW), Intel (INTC), Seagate Tech(NASDAQ:STX)and Mattel(NASDAQ:MAT)on April 22; as well as American Express(NYSE:AXP)and Honeywell(NYSE:HON)on April 23.IPO watch: IPOs expected to start trading during the week include UiPAth (PATH), DoubleVerify (DV) and NeuroPace (NPCE) on April 20, as well as Zymergern (ZY) and KnowBe4 (KNBE) on April 22. IPO lockup periods expire on Datto Holding(NYSE:MSP), Topaz Energy(NYSE:TPZ), McAfee(NASDAQ:MCFE), Guild Holdings(NYSE:GHLD), Foghorn Therapeutics(NASDAQ:FHTX)and ComSovereign Holding(NASDAQ:COMS). The analyst quiet period expires on ThredUp(NASDAQ:TDUP)on April 20 to free up analysts to post ratings. Shares of Trip.com(NASDAQ:TRIP)will begin trading in Hong Kong this week following a new listing.Apple event: Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)holds an event on April 20 called \"Spring Loaded\" to show off new products. Information out of Cupertino has been pretty tight, but the company could reveal new iPads, new iMacs, new AirPods, AirTags, a new Apple TV and possibly a new Apple Pencil.Projected dividend increases (quarterly): Expected dividend boosts for the week include Comfort Systems USA(NYSE:FIX)to $0.125 from $0.1115, HP Enterprise(NYSE:HPE)to $0.1275 from $0.12, Pool Corp(NASDAQ:POOL)to $0.61 from $0.58, Johnson & Johnson to $1.06 from $1.01, Travelers(NYSE:TRV)to $0.88 from $0.85, Southern Company(NYSE:SO)to $0.66 from $0.64, Kinder Morgan(NYSE:KMI)to $0.27 from $0.2625 and Nasdaq(NASDAQ:NDAQ)to $0.50 from $0.49.M&A tidbits: The highly-anticipated Aphria(NASDAQ:APHA)-Tilray(NASDAQ:TLRY)merger is expected to close on April 20. The tender offer on the GenMark Diagnostics(NASDAQ:GNMK)-Roche(OTCQX:RHHBY)deal expires on April 21. GW Pharmaceuticals(NASDAQ:GWPH)shareholders vote on the Jazz Pharmaceuticals(NASDAQ:JAZZ)deal on April 23.ARK Invest watch: Investors may want to keep an eye on Coinbase Global(NASDAQ:COIN)after ARK Invest came in Friday with a purchase of 19,599 shares for the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKF)and 112,539 shares for the ARK Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKK). Cathie Wood's firm also defended Silvergate(NYSE:SI)after its mid-week stumble likely in response to the Coinbase IPO. \"Investors potentially took profits to diversify their exposure to crypto in the public markets. \"In our view, the Silvergate Exchange Network, with its strong network effects, positions Silvergate as both a facilitator and a prime beneficiary of increased crypto adoption,\" ARK reasons.Corporate spotlight: Major events this week include strategic updates from Advance Auto Parts(NYSE:AAP)and Royal Gold(NYSE:GOLD)on April 20, as well as investor days for Dye & Durham(OTC:DYNDF)and SMART Global(NASDAQ:SGH). On April 21, MGM Resorts(NYSE:MGM)and Entain(OTCPK:GMVHF)along with their U.S. venture BetMGM will host a business update event for analysts and investors. The event will provide deeper insights into the rapidly growing U.S. sports betting and iGaming business of BetMGM. A new forecast on the industry's total addressable market could be a share price catalyst for DraftKings(NASDAQ:DKNG)and Penn National Gaming(NASDAQ:PENN)as well. Check outSeeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch for a detailed list of more events to watch.Conferences rundown: Notable conferences running during the week include the H.C Wainwright Spring Mining Conference, Linley Spring Processor Conference 2021, the Kempen Life Sciences Conference, the Jefferies Microbiome-based Therapeutics Summit 2021 and the Stifel GMP & Stifel First Energy Canada Cross Sector Insight Conference 2021. Check outSeeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch for a detailed list of events to watch.Barron's mentions: Disney(NYSE:DIS)makes the cover of Barron's this week as the media giant is given credit for positioning itself for post-COVID growth. Disney is said to have come out ahead after CEO Bob Chapek and team faced the severest of financial stress tests. \"When parks and theaters emptied out a year ago, costs kept rolling in, and the fastest-growing part of the business, streaming, was consuming cash—as it still is. Yet, Disney generated $3.6 billion in free cash during its fiscal year ended last September. It’s seen producing $3.3 billion this year before the numbers begin a sharp rebound,\" notes Jack Hough. While the movie business is still sputtering to restart and the TV business is seen holding steady at best, streaming results have shattered forecasts. Disney+ smashed expectations in piling up 100M in less than 18 months, compared to the 10 years it took Netflix to hit that level. Disney is targeting 300M to 350M subscribers by 2024 across all of its streaming platforms, including Hulu, ESPN+, Hotstar in India, and Star+ in Latin America (launches in June). PetIQ(NASDAQ:PETQ)and O'Reilly Automotive(NASDAQ:ORLY)also land favorable write-ups this week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":312800220,"gmtCreate":1612079597260,"gmtModify":1703757671112,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;[美金]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;[美金]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察] [美金]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312800220","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":889575462,"gmtCreate":1631164030256,"gmtModify":1631890264834,"author":{"id":"3570923041276809","authorId":"3570923041276809","name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570923041276809","idStr":"3570923041276809"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Both also good companies[Victory]&nbsp;","listText":"Both also good companies[Victory]&nbsp;","text":"Both also good companies[Victory]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889575462","repostId":"1127517147","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127517147","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631158589,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127517147?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 11:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Vs. Microsoft: Two Cloud Computing Giants, One Winning Stock<blockquote>亚马逊Vs.微软：两大云计算巨头，一只胜出股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127517147","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure ser","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Microsoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure services market. However, Amazon's AWS remains in the No.1 position.</li>  <li>Although the cloud wars are heating up, both Azure and AWS are performing exceptionally, growing at 51% y/y and 37% y/y, respectively.</li>  <li>The global cloud services market is poised to grow at a CAGR of ~15.8% until 2030 to become a $1.6T market. Therefore, cloud providers still have a long growth runway.</li>  <li>In this article, I share a comparative financial analysis for Microsoft and Amazon to determine the better buy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69eeb847ac2a68d9068ee3d90ae2ec5c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软的Azure继续在蓬勃发展的云基础设施服务市场中获得市场份额。然而，亚马逊的AWS仍然保持在第一的位置。</li><li>尽管云战争正在升温，但Azure和AWS的表现都非常出色，分别同比增长51%和37%。</li><li>到2030年，全球云服务市场将以约15.8%的复合年增长率增长，成为一个价值1.6 T美元的市场。因此，云提供商还有很长的增长跑道。</li><li>在这篇文章中，我分享了微软和亚马逊的比较财务分析，以确定更好的购买方式。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>奇普·索莫德维拉/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are competing for the coveted No.1 spot in the cloud infrastructure services market, which is projected to grow from $325B in 2021 to $1,620B (or $1.6T) by 2030, according to areportby Allied Market Research. In Q2, Amazon's AWS revenues grew at 37% year-over-year (marked acceleration) as it continues to lead the cloud infrastructure services market with a 31% market share. However, Microsoft's Azure is outpacing AWS's growth and now commands a market share of 22%.</p><p><blockquote>微软(MSFT)和亚马逊(AMZN)正在争夺云基础设施服务市场令人垂涎的第一名位置，根据Allied Market的报告，预计到2030年，该市场将从2021年的$325B增长到$1,620B（或$1.6 T）研究。第二季度，亚马逊的AWS收入同比增长37%（显着加速），继续以31%的市场份额引领云基础设施服务市场。然而，微软的Azure正在超过AWS的增长，目前占据22%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b929cfb3eb06a50b14a942b980bd8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: canalys.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：canalys.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the last year or so, the coronavirus pandemic has led to increased cloud infrastructure services spending as workload migration and cloud-native application development accelerated. Naturally, Azure and AWS have emerged as prime beneficiaries of this transformational shift toward the cloud. Although the coronavirus pandemic has receded in previous months, businesses have continued to embrace the cloud, as evidenced by the $5B sequential (q/q) growth in cloud infrastructure services spending in Q2 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在过去一年左右的时间里，随着工作负载迁移和云原生应用程序开发的加速，冠状病毒疫情导致云基础设施服务支出增加。自然，Azure和AWS已经成为这种向云转型的主要受益者。尽管冠状病毒疫情在前几个月已经消退，但企业仍在继续拥抱云，2021年Q2云基础设施服务支出环比增长50亿美元就证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab77f327d4b4f980b703dd05a727a8fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: canalys.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：canalys.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Both Microsoft and Amazon are well-diversified big tech giants. However, the cloud opportunity is critical to their future successes. Today, Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud business makes up nearly ~37% of total revenues and ~40% of Microsoft's operating income, and these figures are expected to grow even further in the coming years. In relation to Amazon, AWS's revenues are a small fraction (13% in Q2 2021) of total sales. However, AWS contributes the majority of Amazon's operating income (~60%). And so, I'm not surprised with how ugly this battle is turning out to be. In recent times, we have witnessed dramatic instances such as&nbsp;Amazon's lawsuit&nbsp;for the $10B Jedi contract being awarded to Microsoft,Microsoft's protest&nbsp;to Government Accountability Office in relation to the $10B NSA contract awarded to Amazon, and a top AWS executive - Charlie Bell (once expected to be a successor to Andy Jassy as AWS CEO) -moving over to Microsoft. The competition between Amazon and Microsoft is fearsome. However, I can see ample room for multiple winners in the cloud services market.</p><p><blockquote>微软和亚马逊都是多元化的大型科技巨头。然而，云机遇对他们未来的成功至关重要。如今，微软的智能云业务占总收入的近37%，占微软营业收入的约40%，预计这些数字在未来几年将进一步增长。与亚马逊相比，AWS的收入仅占总销售额的一小部分（2021年第二季度为13%）。然而，AWS贡献了亚马逊的大部分营业收入（约60%）。所以，我对这场战斗变得如此丑陋并不感到惊讶。最近，我们目睹了一些戏剧性的事件，如亚马逊就授予微软的100亿美元Jedi合同提起诉讼，微软就授予亚马逊的100亿美元NSA合同向政府问责办公室提出抗议，以及AWS高管Charlie Bell（曾有望接替Andy Jassy担任AWS首席执行官）搬到微软。亚马逊和微软之间的竞争是可怕的。然而，我可以看到云服务市场有足够的空间容纳多个赢家。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7fd2cfae285856cb75e5ced740ef320\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Allied Market Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：联合市场研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With massive cloud services growth on the horizon, I expect both Microsoft and Amazon to deliver double-digit revenue growth over the coming decade. Several analysts have projected the cloud services business to become a commodity. However, profitability metrics for AWS and Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud show that it's clearly not a commodity business (at least for now). Azure has been gaining ground on AWS, but it's too soon to tell which of these tech titans will lead the cloud services market over the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>随着云服务的大规模增长，我预计微软和亚马逊在未来十年都将实现两位数的收入增长。一些分析师预计云服务业务将成为一种商品。然而，AWS和微软智能云的盈利指标显示，它显然不是一项商品业务（至少目前如此）。Azure一直在AWS上取得进展，但现在判断这些科技巨头中哪一家将在未来几年引领云服务市场还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last 12 months, Microsoft has significantly outperformed Amazon in terms of creating shareholder wealth, as can be observed in the chart below. I attribute Microsoft's outperformance to a multitude of factors, including but not limited to stronger momentum in the cloud, the existence of a massive capital return program, and robust free cash flow generation.</p><p><blockquote>在过去12个月中，微软在创造股东财富方面的表现明显优于亚马逊，如下图所示。我将微软的优异表现归因于多种因素，包括但不限于云计算的强劲势头、大规模资本回报计划的存在以及强劲的自由现金流生成。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a47beb283bcc911ba9ad25c4c2c01f91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In today's article, I will share a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon. Furthermore, we will estimate the fair value and expected returns for both of these blue-chip companies based on the financial statement analysis conducted in this note.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的文章中，我将分享一个比较财务分析，以确定微软和亚马逊之间更好的购买方式。此外，我们将根据本附注中进行的财务报表分析估计这两家蓝筹公司的公允价值和预期回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Comparative Financial Analysis: Microsoft vs. Amazon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比较财务分析：微软与亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> I think it's too early to call the cloud services market, and the winners will only be evident in due time. However, it's very likely that Amazon and Microsoft will be dominating this market in 2031. Now, Amazon and Microsoft may be competitors in the cloud, but they happen to be two very different companies with varied core competencies: Amazon - e-commerce, Microsoft - business, and consumer software. Let's carry out a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>我认为现在看涨期权云服务市场还为时过早，赢家只有在适当的时候才会显现出来。然而，亚马逊和微软很可能会在2031年主导这个市场。现在，亚马逊和微软可能是云领域的竞争对手，但它们恰好是两家截然不同的公司，拥有不同的核心竞争力：亚马逊——电子商务、微软——商业和消费软件。让我们进行一个比较财务分析，以确定微软和亚马逊之间更好的购买方式。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d675b34f8dc1b88db5722fa7be591b9f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In essence, Microsoft is a high-margin software and services business, while Amazon is a low-margin retail business with some higher-margin business lines such as AWS and Advertising. Since both Amazon and Microsoft are over-covered stocks, I don't think discussing their revenue mix would be of much value. However, let's look at the free cash flow generation of these blue-chip giants to understand their current business momentum.</p><p><blockquote>本质上，微软是一个高利润的软件和服务业务，而亚马逊是一个低利润的零售业务，拥有一些更高利润的业务线，如AWS和广告。由于亚马逊和微软都是被过度覆盖的股票，我认为讨论它们的收入组合没有多大价值。然而，让我们看看这些蓝筹巨头的自由现金流生成情况，以了解他们目前的业务势头。</blockquote></p><p> After receiving a massive pandemic boost, Amazon's free cash flows have turned negative in the last two quarters as the company invests massive amounts of capital (capex spending) in driving future revenue growth. In Q2, Amazon missed revenue estimates by ~$2B, which is further evidence of Amazon losing business momentum. On the other hand, Microsoft's business momentum remained strong in Q2 as the company beat revenue expectations by ~$2B while generating record amounts of free cash flow over the last 12 months. Therefore, it's fair to say that Microsoft is outperforming Amazon for the time being.</p><p><blockquote>在受到大流行的巨大提振后，亚马逊的自由现金流在过去两个季度转为负值，因为该公司投入了大量资本（capex支出）来推动未来的收入增长。第二季度，亚马逊的收入低于预期约20亿美元，这进一步证明亚马逊正在失去业务动力。另一方面，微软第二季度的业务势头依然强劲，该公司的收入超出预期约20亿美元，同时在过去12个月内产生了创纪录的自由现金流。因此，可以公平地说，微软的表现暂时优于亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed96043009b5528ed09d4e736d1833d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the end of Q2, Microsoft had nearly $130B of cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet vs. financial debt of $58B (down from ~$90B debt in Dec'17). Over the last five years, Amazon's cash reserves have been building up, which now stand at ~$90B. However, the e-commerce giant has been increasing its debt load too, which has grown to $50B in Q2 2021.</p><p><blockquote>截至第二季度末，微软的资产负债表上有近130B美元的现金和短期投资，而金融债务为58B美元（低于17年12月的约90B美元债务）。在过去的五年里，亚马逊的现金储备一直在增加，目前约为90B美元。然而，这家电子商务巨头的债务负担也在增加，2021年第二季度已增至500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f8f27effc87360acc99c52dadd22af3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of balance sheet strength, Microsoft is clearly in a better position compared to Amazon. Moreover, Microsoft's free cash flow generation is superior to Amazon right now. As you can see below, Microsoft is using its financial strength to execute a massive capital return program that consists of stock buybacks and dividends. Although Amazon lacks a capital return program today, it's only a matter of time before Amazon boasts one of the largest capital return programs among big tech companies. Therefore, Microsoft's advantage in this department may be short lived.</p><p><blockquote>就资产负债表实力而言，与亚马逊相比，微软显然处于更有利的地位。此外，微软目前的自由现金流生成量优于亚马逊。如下图所示，微软正在利用其财务实力执行一项大规模资本回报计划，其中包括股票回购和股息。尽管亚马逊目前缺乏资本回报计划，但亚马逊拥有大型科技公司中最大的资本回报计划之一只是时间问题。因此，微软在这一部门的优势可能是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef388b2cab13ed222ddf2ba53ad6067f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While Microsoft returns the majority of its operational cash flows back to shareholders, Amazon is investing billions of dollars to drive future revenue (and, by extension, free cash flow) growth. In my opinion, Amazon will continue to outpace Microsoft's revenue growth over the next decade. As Amazon's faster-growing, higher-margin business lines, AWS and Advertising, contribute a larger share of Amazon's revenues over the coming years, its margins are expected to head higher. Hence, Amazon possesses the greater potential for revenue growth and margin expansion compared to Microsoft. To learn more about AWS and Amazon's Ads business, you may read the following notes:</p><p><blockquote>虽然微软将大部分运营现金流返还给股东，但亚马逊正在投资数十亿美元来推动未来收入（以及自由现金流）的增长。在我看来，未来十年，亚马逊的收入增长将继续超过微软。随着亚马逊增长更快、利润率更高的业务线AWS和广告在未来几年为亚马逊的收入贡献了更大的份额，预计其利润率将会上升。因此，与微软相比，亚马逊拥有更大的收入增长和利润率扩张潜力。要了解有关AWS和亚马逊广告业务的更多信息，您可以阅读以下说明：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Amazon Web Services -&nbsp;Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring</li>  <li>Digital Ads -&nbsp;Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e9ff96d611913db9e45fbff0cc34ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊网络服务-亚马逊：以下是您应该监控的内容</li><li>数字广告-亚马逊：“其他”细分市场的价值可能超过AWS</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Although Amazon appears to be more expensive than Microsoft based on backward-looking trading multiples such as Price-to-Earnings and Price-to-FCF ratios, it's relatively cheaper than Microsoft when we factor in future growth as indicated by the PEG ratios.</p><p><blockquote>尽管根据市盈率和市盈率与自由现金流比率等回顾性交易倍数，亚马逊似乎比微软贵，但当我们考虑到PEG比率所表明的未来增长时，亚马逊相对比微软便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68cf436c611eb187de68bf8802e73021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In summary, Microsoft is currently performing better than Amazon. However, Amazon's future appears to be a lot brighter than Microsoft. Since the stock markets are forward-looking, I would expect Amazon to outperform Microsoft over the coming years if their relative valuations were identical. With that being said, let us now calculate the intrinsic value of both Microsoft and Amazon along with future expected returns for these tech giants.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，微软目前的表现优于亚马逊。然而，亚马逊的未来似乎比微软要光明得多。由于股市具有前瞻性，如果亚马逊的相对估值相同，我预计亚马逊在未来几年的表现将优于微软。话虽如此，现在让我们计算一下微软和亚马逊的内在价值，以及这些科技巨头未来的预期回报。</blockquote></p><p> Evaluating the Fair Value And Expected Return of Microsoft And Amazon</p><p><blockquote>评估微软和亚马逊的公允价值和预期回报</blockquote></p><p> To find the fair values of Microsoft and Amazon, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p><p><blockquote>为了找到微软和亚马逊的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。它的含义如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流按我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p><p><blockquote><li>在步骤2中，模型考虑了已发行股票变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p><p><blockquote><li>在第3步中，我们将10年末未来增长前景的估值标准化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和10年末的预计股价得出CAGR。如果这比市场高出足够的幅度，我们就投资。如果没有，我们等待更好的切入点。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 4, we account for dividends.</li> </ul> <b>Assumptions:</b></p><p><blockquote><li>在第4步中，我们考虑股息。</li><b>假设：</b></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <colgroup></colgroup>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td>微软</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><td>亚马逊</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Forward 12-month revenue [A]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>远期12个月收入[A]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$195 billion</p><p><blockquote><td>1950亿美元</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$515 billion</p><p><blockquote><td>5150亿美元</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Potential Free Cash Flow Margin [B]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>潜在自由现金流利润率[B]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35%</p><p><blockquote><td>35%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Average diluted shares outstanding [C]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>平均稀释后已发行股份[C]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.5 billion</p><p><blockquote><td>75亿</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>525 million</p><p><blockquote><td>5.25亿</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Free cash flow per share [ D = (A * B) / C ]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股自由现金流[D=(A*B)/C]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$9.1</p><p><blockquote><td>$9.1</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$196.19</p><p><blockquote><td>$196.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Free cash flow per share growth rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股自由现金流增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Terminal growth rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>终末增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3%</p><p><blockquote><td>3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3%</p><p><blockquote><td>3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Years of elevated growth</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>多年的高增长</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10</p><p><blockquote><td>10</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10</p><p><blockquote><td>10</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total years to stimulate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>刺激总年数</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>100</p><p><blockquote><td>100</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>100</p><p><blockquote><td>100</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Discount Rate (Our \"Next Best Alternative\")</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>贴现率（我们的“次佳替代方案”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <b>Results:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结果：</b></blockquote></p><p> 1) Microsoft:</p><p><blockquote>1）微软：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875546f4aabbb1e580dcc9610c18a5b9\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"729\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8861dcb9fc1fbcd858297426ec52eaf6\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"771\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>2) Amazon:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2）亚马逊：</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8fb43ad416565a9768e919470e59bab\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"731\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a15de5a0494d4557b38c2290017588e9\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"430\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Summary of Results:</p><p><blockquote>结果总结：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Current Price</b></td>    <td><b>Fair Value</b></td>    <td><b>Undervalued (-) or Overvalued (+)</b></td>    <td><b>2031 Share Price Target</b></td>    <td><b>Total Expected CAGR Return</b></td>    <td><b>Rating</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Microsoft</b></td>    <td>$301</td>    <td>$295</td>    <td>+2.15%</td>    <td>$1101</td>    <td>14.71%</td>    <td><i>Modest Buy</i></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon</b></td>    <td>$3478</td>    <td>$6024</td>    <td>-42.27%</td>    <td>$22298</td>    <td>20.42%</td>    <td><i>Strong Buy</i></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> As you can see, Microsoft is slightly overvalued, and investors buying in at $301 can expect to generate CAGR returns of ~14.71% over the next decade, which is slightly below our investment hurdle rate of 15%. Since Microsoft's business fundamentals are robust, I rate it as a modest buy at this price. On the other hand, Amazon's business is facing near-term volatility, and business momentum looks shaky. However, Amazon's stock is deeply undervalued, and this is an opportunity for long-term investors to generate significant alpha. As Amazon's expected CAGR returns are much greater than my hurdle rate, I rate Amazon a strong buy. If I were to choose between Microsoft and Amazon based on business momentum (cloud and otherwise), I would have to go with Microsoft. However, Amazon's stock is massively undervalued while Microsoft is fairly valued. Considering the risk/reward available, I think Amazon is the better buy here.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>当前价格</b></td><td><b>公允价值</b></td><td><b>低估(-)或高估(+)</b></td><td><b>2031年股价目标</b></td><td><b>总预期复合年增长率回报</b></td><td><b>评级</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>微软</b></td><td>$301</td><td>$295</td><td>+2.15%</td><td>$1101</td><td>14.71%</td><td><i>适度购买</i></td></tr><tr><td><b>亚马逊</b></td><td>$3478</td><td>$6024</td><td>-42.27%</td><td>$22298</td><td>20.42%</td><td><i>强力买入</i></td></tr></tbody></table>正如您所看到的，微软的估值略有高估，以301美元买入的投资者预计未来十年的复合年增长率约为14.71%，略低于我们15%的投资门槛率。由于微软的业务基本面强劲，我将其评为以这个价格适度买入。另一方面，亚马逊的业务面临近期波动，业务势头看起来摇摇欲坠。然而，亚马逊的股票被严重低估，这是长期投资者产生显着阿尔法的机会。由于亚马逊的预期复合年增长率远大于我的最低回报率，我将亚马逊评为强力买入。如果我要根据业务势头（云和其他）在微软和亚马逊之间做出选择，我会选择微软。然而，亚马逊的股票被严重低估，而微软的估值相当合理。考虑到可用的风险/回报，我认为亚马逊是更好的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Key Takeaway: I rate Amazon a strong buy at $3,478 and Microsoft a modest buy at $301. Amazon is a better buy than Microsoft at this point in time.</p><p><blockquote>要点：我对亚马逊的评级为3,478美元的强力买入，对微软的评级为301美元的适度买入。目前，亚马逊比微软更划算。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Vs. Microsoft: Two Cloud Computing Giants, One Winning Stock<blockquote>亚马逊Vs.微软：两大云计算巨头，一只胜出股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Vs. Microsoft: Two Cloud Computing Giants, One Winning Stock<blockquote>亚马逊Vs.微软：两大云计算巨头，一只胜出股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-09 11:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Microsoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure services market. However, Amazon's AWS remains in the No.1 position.</li>  <li>Although the cloud wars are heating up, both Azure and AWS are performing exceptionally, growing at 51% y/y and 37% y/y, respectively.</li>  <li>The global cloud services market is poised to grow at a CAGR of ~15.8% until 2030 to become a $1.6T market. Therefore, cloud providers still have a long growth runway.</li>  <li>In this article, I share a comparative financial analysis for Microsoft and Amazon to determine the better buy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69eeb847ac2a68d9068ee3d90ae2ec5c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软的Azure继续在蓬勃发展的云基础设施服务市场中获得市场份额。然而，亚马逊的AWS仍然保持在第一的位置。</li><li>尽管云战争正在升温，但Azure和AWS的表现都非常出色，分别同比增长51%和37%。</li><li>到2030年，全球云服务市场将以约15.8%的复合年增长率增长，成为一个价值1.6 T美元的市场。因此，云提供商还有很长的增长跑道。</li><li>在这篇文章中，我分享了微软和亚马逊的比较财务分析，以确定更好的购买方式。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>奇普·索莫德维拉/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are competing for the coveted No.1 spot in the cloud infrastructure services market, which is projected to grow from $325B in 2021 to $1,620B (or $1.6T) by 2030, according to areportby Allied Market Research. In Q2, Amazon's AWS revenues grew at 37% year-over-year (marked acceleration) as it continues to lead the cloud infrastructure services market with a 31% market share. However, Microsoft's Azure is outpacing AWS's growth and now commands a market share of 22%.</p><p><blockquote>微软(MSFT)和亚马逊(AMZN)正在争夺云基础设施服务市场令人垂涎的第一名位置，根据Allied Market的报告，预计到2030年，该市场将从2021年的$325B增长到$1,620B（或$1.6 T）研究。第二季度，亚马逊的AWS收入同比增长37%（显着加速），继续以31%的市场份额引领云基础设施服务市场。然而，微软的Azure正在超过AWS的增长，目前占据22%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b929cfb3eb06a50b14a942b980bd8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: canalys.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：canalys.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the last year or so, the coronavirus pandemic has led to increased cloud infrastructure services spending as workload migration and cloud-native application development accelerated. Naturally, Azure and AWS have emerged as prime beneficiaries of this transformational shift toward the cloud. Although the coronavirus pandemic has receded in previous months, businesses have continued to embrace the cloud, as evidenced by the $5B sequential (q/q) growth in cloud infrastructure services spending in Q2 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在过去一年左右的时间里，随着工作负载迁移和云原生应用程序开发的加速，冠状病毒疫情导致云基础设施服务支出增加。自然，Azure和AWS已经成为这种向云转型的主要受益者。尽管冠状病毒疫情在前几个月已经消退，但企业仍在继续拥抱云，2021年Q2云基础设施服务支出环比增长50亿美元就证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab77f327d4b4f980b703dd05a727a8fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: canalys.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：canalys.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Both Microsoft and Amazon are well-diversified big tech giants. However, the cloud opportunity is critical to their future successes. Today, Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud business makes up nearly ~37% of total revenues and ~40% of Microsoft's operating income, and these figures are expected to grow even further in the coming years. In relation to Amazon, AWS's revenues are a small fraction (13% in Q2 2021) of total sales. However, AWS contributes the majority of Amazon's operating income (~60%). And so, I'm not surprised with how ugly this battle is turning out to be. In recent times, we have witnessed dramatic instances such as&nbsp;Amazon's lawsuit&nbsp;for the $10B Jedi contract being awarded to Microsoft,Microsoft's protest&nbsp;to Government Accountability Office in relation to the $10B NSA contract awarded to Amazon, and a top AWS executive - Charlie Bell (once expected to be a successor to Andy Jassy as AWS CEO) -moving over to Microsoft. The competition between Amazon and Microsoft is fearsome. However, I can see ample room for multiple winners in the cloud services market.</p><p><blockquote>微软和亚马逊都是多元化的大型科技巨头。然而，云机遇对他们未来的成功至关重要。如今，微软的智能云业务占总收入的近37%，占微软营业收入的约40%，预计这些数字在未来几年将进一步增长。与亚马逊相比，AWS的收入仅占总销售额的一小部分（2021年第二季度为13%）。然而，AWS贡献了亚马逊的大部分营业收入（约60%）。所以，我对这场战斗变得如此丑陋并不感到惊讶。最近，我们目睹了一些戏剧性的事件，如亚马逊就授予微软的100亿美元Jedi合同提起诉讼，微软就授予亚马逊的100亿美元NSA合同向政府问责办公室提出抗议，以及AWS高管Charlie Bell（曾有望接替Andy Jassy担任AWS首席执行官）搬到微软。亚马逊和微软之间的竞争是可怕的。然而，我可以看到云服务市场有足够的空间容纳多个赢家。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7fd2cfae285856cb75e5ced740ef320\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Allied Market Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：联合市场研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With massive cloud services growth on the horizon, I expect both Microsoft and Amazon to deliver double-digit revenue growth over the coming decade. Several analysts have projected the cloud services business to become a commodity. However, profitability metrics for AWS and Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud show that it's clearly not a commodity business (at least for now). Azure has been gaining ground on AWS, but it's too soon to tell which of these tech titans will lead the cloud services market over the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>随着云服务的大规模增长，我预计微软和亚马逊在未来十年都将实现两位数的收入增长。一些分析师预计云服务业务将成为一种商品。然而，AWS和微软智能云的盈利指标显示，它显然不是一项商品业务（至少目前如此）。Azure一直在AWS上取得进展，但现在判断这些科技巨头中哪一家将在未来几年引领云服务市场还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last 12 months, Microsoft has significantly outperformed Amazon in terms of creating shareholder wealth, as can be observed in the chart below. I attribute Microsoft's outperformance to a multitude of factors, including but not limited to stronger momentum in the cloud, the existence of a massive capital return program, and robust free cash flow generation.</p><p><blockquote>在过去12个月中，微软在创造股东财富方面的表现明显优于亚马逊，如下图所示。我将微软的优异表现归因于多种因素，包括但不限于云计算的强劲势头、大规模资本回报计划的存在以及强劲的自由现金流生成。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a47beb283bcc911ba9ad25c4c2c01f91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In today's article, I will share a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon. Furthermore, we will estimate the fair value and expected returns for both of these blue-chip companies based on the financial statement analysis conducted in this note.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的文章中，我将分享一个比较财务分析，以确定微软和亚马逊之间更好的购买方式。此外，我们将根据本附注中进行的财务报表分析估计这两家蓝筹公司的公允价值和预期回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Comparative Financial Analysis: Microsoft vs. Amazon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比较财务分析：微软与亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> I think it's too early to call the cloud services market, and the winners will only be evident in due time. However, it's very likely that Amazon and Microsoft will be dominating this market in 2031. Now, Amazon and Microsoft may be competitors in the cloud, but they happen to be two very different companies with varied core competencies: Amazon - e-commerce, Microsoft - business, and consumer software. Let's carry out a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>我认为现在看涨期权云服务市场还为时过早，赢家只有在适当的时候才会显现出来。然而，亚马逊和微软很可能会在2031年主导这个市场。现在，亚马逊和微软可能是云领域的竞争对手，但它们恰好是两家截然不同的公司，拥有不同的核心竞争力：亚马逊——电子商务、微软——商业和消费软件。让我们进行一个比较财务分析，以确定微软和亚马逊之间更好的购买方式。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d675b34f8dc1b88db5722fa7be591b9f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In essence, Microsoft is a high-margin software and services business, while Amazon is a low-margin retail business with some higher-margin business lines such as AWS and Advertising. Since both Amazon and Microsoft are over-covered stocks, I don't think discussing their revenue mix would be of much value. However, let's look at the free cash flow generation of these blue-chip giants to understand their current business momentum.</p><p><blockquote>本质上，微软是一个高利润的软件和服务业务，而亚马逊是一个低利润的零售业务，拥有一些更高利润的业务线，如AWS和广告。由于亚马逊和微软都是被过度覆盖的股票，我认为讨论它们的收入组合没有多大价值。然而，让我们看看这些蓝筹巨头的自由现金流生成情况，以了解他们目前的业务势头。</blockquote></p><p> After receiving a massive pandemic boost, Amazon's free cash flows have turned negative in the last two quarters as the company invests massive amounts of capital (capex spending) in driving future revenue growth. In Q2, Amazon missed revenue estimates by ~$2B, which is further evidence of Amazon losing business momentum. On the other hand, Microsoft's business momentum remained strong in Q2 as the company beat revenue expectations by ~$2B while generating record amounts of free cash flow over the last 12 months. Therefore, it's fair to say that Microsoft is outperforming Amazon for the time being.</p><p><blockquote>在受到大流行的巨大提振后，亚马逊的自由现金流在过去两个季度转为负值，因为该公司投入了大量资本（capex支出）来推动未来的收入增长。第二季度，亚马逊的收入低于预期约20亿美元，这进一步证明亚马逊正在失去业务动力。另一方面，微软第二季度的业务势头依然强劲，该公司的收入超出预期约20亿美元，同时在过去12个月内产生了创纪录的自由现金流。因此，可以公平地说，微软的表现暂时优于亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed96043009b5528ed09d4e736d1833d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the end of Q2, Microsoft had nearly $130B of cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet vs. financial debt of $58B (down from ~$90B debt in Dec'17). Over the last five years, Amazon's cash reserves have been building up, which now stand at ~$90B. However, the e-commerce giant has been increasing its debt load too, which has grown to $50B in Q2 2021.</p><p><blockquote>截至第二季度末，微软的资产负债表上有近130B美元的现金和短期投资，而金融债务为58B美元（低于17年12月的约90B美元债务）。在过去的五年里，亚马逊的现金储备一直在增加，目前约为90B美元。然而，这家电子商务巨头的债务负担也在增加，2021年第二季度已增至500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f8f27effc87360acc99c52dadd22af3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of balance sheet strength, Microsoft is clearly in a better position compared to Amazon. Moreover, Microsoft's free cash flow generation is superior to Amazon right now. As you can see below, Microsoft is using its financial strength to execute a massive capital return program that consists of stock buybacks and dividends. Although Amazon lacks a capital return program today, it's only a matter of time before Amazon boasts one of the largest capital return programs among big tech companies. Therefore, Microsoft's advantage in this department may be short lived.</p><p><blockquote>就资产负债表实力而言，与亚马逊相比，微软显然处于更有利的地位。此外，微软目前的自由现金流生成量优于亚马逊。如下图所示，微软正在利用其财务实力执行一项大规模资本回报计划，其中包括股票回购和股息。尽管亚马逊目前缺乏资本回报计划，但亚马逊拥有大型科技公司中最大的资本回报计划之一只是时间问题。因此，微软在这一部门的优势可能是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef388b2cab13ed222ddf2ba53ad6067f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While Microsoft returns the majority of its operational cash flows back to shareholders, Amazon is investing billions of dollars to drive future revenue (and, by extension, free cash flow) growth. In my opinion, Amazon will continue to outpace Microsoft's revenue growth over the next decade. As Amazon's faster-growing, higher-margin business lines, AWS and Advertising, contribute a larger share of Amazon's revenues over the coming years, its margins are expected to head higher. Hence, Amazon possesses the greater potential for revenue growth and margin expansion compared to Microsoft. To learn more about AWS and Amazon's Ads business, you may read the following notes:</p><p><blockquote>虽然微软将大部分运营现金流返还给股东，但亚马逊正在投资数十亿美元来推动未来收入（以及自由现金流）的增长。在我看来，未来十年，亚马逊的收入增长将继续超过微软。随着亚马逊增长更快、利润率更高的业务线AWS和广告在未来几年为亚马逊的收入贡献了更大的份额，预计其利润率将会上升。因此，与微软相比，亚马逊拥有更大的收入增长和利润率扩张潜力。要了解有关AWS和亚马逊广告业务的更多信息，您可以阅读以下说明：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Amazon Web Services -&nbsp;Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring</li>  <li>Digital Ads -&nbsp;Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e9ff96d611913db9e45fbff0cc34ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊网络服务-亚马逊：以下是您应该监控的内容</li><li>数字广告-亚马逊：“其他”细分市场的价值可能超过AWS</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Although Amazon appears to be more expensive than Microsoft based on backward-looking trading multiples such as Price-to-Earnings and Price-to-FCF ratios, it's relatively cheaper than Microsoft when we factor in future growth as indicated by the PEG ratios.</p><p><blockquote>尽管根据市盈率和市盈率与自由现金流比率等回顾性交易倍数，亚马逊似乎比微软贵，但当我们考虑到PEG比率所表明的未来增长时，亚马逊相对比微软便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68cf436c611eb187de68bf8802e73021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In summary, Microsoft is currently performing better than Amazon. However, Amazon's future appears to be a lot brighter than Microsoft. Since the stock markets are forward-looking, I would expect Amazon to outperform Microsoft over the coming years if their relative valuations were identical. With that being said, let us now calculate the intrinsic value of both Microsoft and Amazon along with future expected returns for these tech giants.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，微软目前的表现优于亚马逊。然而，亚马逊的未来似乎比微软要光明得多。由于股市具有前瞻性，如果亚马逊的相对估值相同，我预计亚马逊在未来几年的表现将优于微软。话虽如此，现在让我们计算一下微软和亚马逊的内在价值，以及这些科技巨头未来的预期回报。</blockquote></p><p> Evaluating the Fair Value And Expected Return of Microsoft And Amazon</p><p><blockquote>评估微软和亚马逊的公允价值和预期回报</blockquote></p><p> To find the fair values of Microsoft and Amazon, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p><p><blockquote>为了找到微软和亚马逊的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。它的含义如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流按我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p><p><blockquote><li>在步骤2中，模型考虑了已发行股票变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p><p><blockquote><li>在第3步中，我们将10年末未来增长前景的估值标准化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和10年末的预计股价得出CAGR。如果这比市场高出足够的幅度，我们就投资。如果没有，我们等待更好的切入点。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 4, we account for dividends.</li> </ul> <b>Assumptions:</b></p><p><blockquote><li>在第4步中，我们考虑股息。</li><b>假设：</b></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <colgroup></colgroup>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td>微软</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><td>亚马逊</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Forward 12-month revenue [A]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>远期12个月收入[A]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$195 billion</p><p><blockquote><td>1950亿美元</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$515 billion</p><p><blockquote><td>5150亿美元</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Potential Free Cash Flow Margin [B]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>潜在自由现金流利润率[B]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35%</p><p><blockquote><td>35%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Average diluted shares outstanding [C]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>平均稀释后已发行股份[C]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.5 billion</p><p><blockquote><td>75亿</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>525 million</p><p><blockquote><td>5.25亿</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Free cash flow per share [ D = (A * B) / C ]</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股自由现金流[D=(A*B)/C]</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$9.1</p><p><blockquote><td>$9.1</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$196.19</p><p><blockquote><td>$196.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Free cash flow per share growth rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股自由现金流增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Terminal growth rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>终末增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3%</p><p><blockquote><td>3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3%</p><p><blockquote><td>3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Years of elevated growth</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>多年的高增长</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10</p><p><blockquote><td>10</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10</p><p><blockquote><td>10</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total years to stimulate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>刺激总年数</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>100</p><p><blockquote><td>100</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>100</p><p><blockquote><td>100</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Discount Rate (Our \"Next Best Alternative\")</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>贴现率（我们的“次佳替代方案”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <b>Results:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结果：</b></blockquote></p><p> 1) Microsoft:</p><p><blockquote>1）微软：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875546f4aabbb1e580dcc9610c18a5b9\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"729\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8861dcb9fc1fbcd858297426ec52eaf6\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"771\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>2) Amazon:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2）亚马逊：</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8fb43ad416565a9768e919470e59bab\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"731\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a15de5a0494d4557b38c2290017588e9\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"430\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Summary of Results:</p><p><blockquote>结果总结：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Current Price</b></td>    <td><b>Fair Value</b></td>    <td><b>Undervalued (-) or Overvalued (+)</b></td>    <td><b>2031 Share Price Target</b></td>    <td><b>Total Expected CAGR Return</b></td>    <td><b>Rating</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Microsoft</b></td>    <td>$301</td>    <td>$295</td>    <td>+2.15%</td>    <td>$1101</td>    <td>14.71%</td>    <td><i>Modest Buy</i></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon</b></td>    <td>$3478</td>    <td>$6024</td>    <td>-42.27%</td>    <td>$22298</td>    <td>20.42%</td>    <td><i>Strong Buy</i></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> As you can see, Microsoft is slightly overvalued, and investors buying in at $301 can expect to generate CAGR returns of ~14.71% over the next decade, which is slightly below our investment hurdle rate of 15%. Since Microsoft's business fundamentals are robust, I rate it as a modest buy at this price. On the other hand, Amazon's business is facing near-term volatility, and business momentum looks shaky. However, Amazon's stock is deeply undervalued, and this is an opportunity for long-term investors to generate significant alpha. As Amazon's expected CAGR returns are much greater than my hurdle rate, I rate Amazon a strong buy. If I were to choose between Microsoft and Amazon based on business momentum (cloud and otherwise), I would have to go with Microsoft. However, Amazon's stock is massively undervalued while Microsoft is fairly valued. Considering the risk/reward available, I think Amazon is the better buy here.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>当前价格</b></td><td><b>公允价值</b></td><td><b>低估(-)或高估(+)</b></td><td><b>2031年股价目标</b></td><td><b>总预期复合年增长率回报</b></td><td><b>评级</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>微软</b></td><td>$301</td><td>$295</td><td>+2.15%</td><td>$1101</td><td>14.71%</td><td><i>适度购买</i></td></tr><tr><td><b>亚马逊</b></td><td>$3478</td><td>$6024</td><td>-42.27%</td><td>$22298</td><td>20.42%</td><td><i>强力买入</i></td></tr></tbody></table>正如您所看到的，微软的估值略有高估，以301美元买入的投资者预计未来十年的复合年增长率约为14.71%，略低于我们15%的投资门槛率。由于微软的业务基本面强劲，我将其评为以这个价格适度买入。另一方面，亚马逊的业务面临近期波动，业务势头看起来摇摇欲坠。然而，亚马逊的股票被严重低估，这是长期投资者产生显着阿尔法的机会。由于亚马逊的预期复合年增长率远大于我的最低回报率，我将亚马逊评为强力买入。如果我要根据业务势头（云和其他）在微软和亚马逊之间做出选择，我会选择微软。然而，亚马逊的股票被严重低估，而微软的估值相当合理。考虑到可用的风险/回报，我认为亚马逊是更好的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Key Takeaway: I rate Amazon a strong buy at $3,478 and Microsoft a modest buy at $301. Amazon is a better buy than Microsoft at this point in time.</p><p><blockquote>要点：我对亚马逊的评级为3,478美元的强力买入，对微软的评级为301美元的适度买入。目前，亚马逊比微软更划算。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453940-amazon-vs-microsoft-two-cloud-computing-giants-one-winning-stock\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453940-amazon-vs-microsoft-two-cloud-computing-giants-one-winning-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127517147","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft's Azure continues to gain market share in the burgeoning cloud infrastructure services market. However, Amazon's AWS remains in the No.1 position.\nAlthough the cloud wars are heating up, both Azure and AWS are performing exceptionally, growing at 51% y/y and 37% y/y, respectively.\nThe global cloud services market is poised to grow at a CAGR of ~15.8% until 2030 to become a $1.6T market. Therefore, cloud providers still have a long growth runway.\nIn this article, I share a comparative financial analysis for Microsoft and Amazon to determine the better buy.\n\nChip Somodevilla/Getty Images News\nIntroduction\nMicrosoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are competing for the coveted No.1 spot in the cloud infrastructure services market, which is projected to grow from $325B in 2021 to $1,620B (or $1.6T) by 2030, according to areportby Allied Market Research. In Q2, Amazon's AWS revenues grew at 37% year-over-year (marked acceleration) as it continues to lead the cloud infrastructure services market with a 31% market share. However, Microsoft's Azure is outpacing AWS's growth and now commands a market share of 22%.\nSource: canalys.com\nIn the last year or so, the coronavirus pandemic has led to increased cloud infrastructure services spending as workload migration and cloud-native application development accelerated. Naturally, Azure and AWS have emerged as prime beneficiaries of this transformational shift toward the cloud. Although the coronavirus pandemic has receded in previous months, businesses have continued to embrace the cloud, as evidenced by the $5B sequential (q/q) growth in cloud infrastructure services spending in Q2 2021.\nSource: canalys.com\nBoth Microsoft and Amazon are well-diversified big tech giants. However, the cloud opportunity is critical to their future successes. Today, Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud business makes up nearly ~37% of total revenues and ~40% of Microsoft's operating income, and these figures are expected to grow even further in the coming years. In relation to Amazon, AWS's revenues are a small fraction (13% in Q2 2021) of total sales. However, AWS contributes the majority of Amazon's operating income (~60%). And so, I'm not surprised with how ugly this battle is turning out to be. In recent times, we have witnessed dramatic instances such as Amazon's lawsuit for the $10B Jedi contract being awarded to Microsoft,Microsoft's protest to Government Accountability Office in relation to the $10B NSA contract awarded to Amazon, and a top AWS executive - Charlie Bell (once expected to be a successor to Andy Jassy as AWS CEO) -moving over to Microsoft. The competition between Amazon and Microsoft is fearsome. However, I can see ample room for multiple winners in the cloud services market.\nSource: Allied Market Research\nWith massive cloud services growth on the horizon, I expect both Microsoft and Amazon to deliver double-digit revenue growth over the coming decade. Several analysts have projected the cloud services business to become a commodity. However, profitability metrics for AWS and Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud show that it's clearly not a commodity business (at least for now). Azure has been gaining ground on AWS, but it's too soon to tell which of these tech titans will lead the cloud services market over the coming years.\nOver the last 12 months, Microsoft has significantly outperformed Amazon in terms of creating shareholder wealth, as can be observed in the chart below. I attribute Microsoft's outperformance to a multitude of factors, including but not limited to stronger momentum in the cloud, the existence of a massive capital return program, and robust free cash flow generation.\nSource: YCharts\nIn today's article, I will share a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon. Furthermore, we will estimate the fair value and expected returns for both of these blue-chip companies based on the financial statement analysis conducted in this note.\nComparative Financial Analysis: Microsoft vs. Amazon\nI think it's too early to call the cloud services market, and the winners will only be evident in due time. However, it's very likely that Amazon and Microsoft will be dominating this market in 2031. Now, Amazon and Microsoft may be competitors in the cloud, but they happen to be two very different companies with varied core competencies: Amazon - e-commerce, Microsoft - business, and consumer software. Let's carry out a comparative financial analysis to determine the better buy among Microsoft and Amazon.\nSource: YCharts\nIn essence, Microsoft is a high-margin software and services business, while Amazon is a low-margin retail business with some higher-margin business lines such as AWS and Advertising. Since both Amazon and Microsoft are over-covered stocks, I don't think discussing their revenue mix would be of much value. However, let's look at the free cash flow generation of these blue-chip giants to understand their current business momentum.\nAfter receiving a massive pandemic boost, Amazon's free cash flows have turned negative in the last two quarters as the company invests massive amounts of capital (capex spending) in driving future revenue growth. In Q2, Amazon missed revenue estimates by ~$2B, which is further evidence of Amazon losing business momentum. On the other hand, Microsoft's business momentum remained strong in Q2 as the company beat revenue expectations by ~$2B while generating record amounts of free cash flow over the last 12 months. Therefore, it's fair to say that Microsoft is outperforming Amazon for the time being.\nSource: YCharts\nAt the end of Q2, Microsoft had nearly $130B of cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet vs. financial debt of $58B (down from ~$90B debt in Dec'17). Over the last five years, Amazon's cash reserves have been building up, which now stand at ~$90B. However, the e-commerce giant has been increasing its debt load too, which has grown to $50B in Q2 2021.\nSource: YCharts\nIn terms of balance sheet strength, Microsoft is clearly in a better position compared to Amazon. Moreover, Microsoft's free cash flow generation is superior to Amazon right now. As you can see below, Microsoft is using its financial strength to execute a massive capital return program that consists of stock buybacks and dividends. Although Amazon lacks a capital return program today, it's only a matter of time before Amazon boasts one of the largest capital return programs among big tech companies. Therefore, Microsoft's advantage in this department may be short lived.\nSource: YCharts\nWhile Microsoft returns the majority of its operational cash flows back to shareholders, Amazon is investing billions of dollars to drive future revenue (and, by extension, free cash flow) growth. In my opinion, Amazon will continue to outpace Microsoft's revenue growth over the next decade. As Amazon's faster-growing, higher-margin business lines, AWS and Advertising, contribute a larger share of Amazon's revenues over the coming years, its margins are expected to head higher. Hence, Amazon possesses the greater potential for revenue growth and margin expansion compared to Microsoft. To learn more about AWS and Amazon's Ads business, you may read the following notes:\n\nAmazon Web Services - Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring\nDigital Ads - Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS\n\nSource: YCharts\nAlthough Amazon appears to be more expensive than Microsoft based on backward-looking trading multiples such as Price-to-Earnings and Price-to-FCF ratios, it's relatively cheaper than Microsoft when we factor in future growth as indicated by the PEG ratios.\nSource: YCharts\nIn summary, Microsoft is currently performing better than Amazon. However, Amazon's future appears to be a lot brighter than Microsoft. Since the stock markets are forward-looking, I would expect Amazon to outperform Microsoft over the coming years if their relative valuations were identical. With that being said, let us now calculate the intrinsic value of both Microsoft and Amazon along with future expected returns for these tech giants.\nEvaluating the Fair Value And Expected Return of Microsoft And Amazon\nTo find the fair values of Microsoft and Amazon, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\nIn step 4, we account for dividends.\n\nAssumptions:\n\n\n\n\nMicrosoft\nAmazon\n\n\nForward 12-month revenue [A]\n$195 billion\n$515 billion\n\n\nPotential Free Cash Flow Margin [B]\n35%\n20%\n\n\nAverage diluted shares outstanding [C]\n7.5 billion\n525 million\n\n\nFree cash flow per share [ D = (A * B) / C ]\n$9.1\n$196.19\n\n\nFree cash flow per share growth rate\n10%\n12.5%\n\n\nTerminal growth rate\n3%\n3%\n\n\nYears of elevated growth\n10\n10\n\n\nTotal years to stimulate\n100\n100\n\n\nDiscount Rate (Our \"Next Best Alternative\")\n9.8%\n9.8%\n\n\n\nResults:\n1) Microsoft:\n\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\n2) Amazon:\n\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nSummary of Results:\n\n\n\nCurrent Price\nFair Value\nUndervalued (-) or Overvalued (+)\n2031 Share Price Target\nTotal Expected CAGR Return\nRating\n\n\nMicrosoft\n$301\n$295\n+2.15%\n$1101\n14.71%\nModest Buy\n\n\nAmazon\n$3478\n$6024\n-42.27%\n$22298\n20.42%\nStrong Buy\n\n\n\nAs you can see, Microsoft is slightly overvalued, and investors buying in at $301 can expect to generate CAGR returns of ~14.71% over the next decade, which is slightly below our investment hurdle rate of 15%. Since Microsoft's business fundamentals are robust, I rate it as a modest buy at this price. On the other hand, Amazon's business is facing near-term volatility, and business momentum looks shaky. However, Amazon's stock is deeply undervalued, and this is an opportunity for long-term investors to generate significant alpha. As Amazon's expected CAGR returns are much greater than my hurdle rate, I rate Amazon a strong buy. If I were to choose between Microsoft and Amazon based on business momentum (cloud and otherwise), I would have to go with Microsoft. However, Amazon's stock is massively undervalued while Microsoft is fairly valued. Considering the risk/reward available, I think Amazon is the better buy here.\nKey Takeaway: I rate Amazon a strong buy at $3,478 and Microsoft a modest buy at $301. Amazon is a better buy than Microsoft at this point in time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}