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2021-07-26

[Cool] [Smile]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-29

[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]

Amazon Stock: Get Ready For Earnings Season<blockquote>亚马逊股票：为财报季做好准备</blockquote>

2021-06-28

[Eye] [Eye]

Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Waiting for a good price to enter

Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote>

2021-06-25

[Cool] [Cool]

Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote>

2021-06-24

[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]

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2021-06-21

Jingle bells 🎶

Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>

2021-06-21

Nike!

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2021-06-19

[Surprised]

Dow drops 400 points at the open, extending losses in its worst week since January<blockquote>道琼斯指数开盘下跌400点，延续1月份以来最糟糕的一周跌幅</blockquote>

2021-06-17

[Lovely] [Sly]

Vaccine sector stocks gained in pre-market trading.<blockquote>疫苗板块股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote>

2021-06-16

Really? [Miser]

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2021-06-15

Woah!

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2021-06-15

Read later

My 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的3只股票</blockquote>

2021-06-15

[Cool] [Cool] [Cool]

@小虎活动:【老虎7周年】集卡瓜分百万奖金

2021-06-14

[Miser]

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2021-06-11

Great!

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2021-06-10

[Eye] [Bless]

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2021-06-08

Addition, not substraction

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2021-06-06

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

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2021-06-04

Looking good!

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[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800037464","repostId":"1100772026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159431868,"gmtCreate":1624976321954,"gmtModify":1633946283702,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159431868","repostId":"1178728317","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178728317","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624973015,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178728317?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 21:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Stock: Get Ready For Earnings Season<blockquote>亚马逊股票：为财报季做好准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178728317","media":"TheStreet","summary":"The countdown to Amazon’s earnings day has begun. The Amazon Maven begins its preview by looking at ","content":"<p>The countdown to Amazon’s earnings day has begun. The Amazon Maven begins its preview by looking at analyst consensus and historical stock price behavior prior to and after the event.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊财报日已经进入倒计时。Amazon Maven通过查看分析师共识和事件前后的历史股价行为来开始预览。</blockquote></p><p> June is ending along with the second calendar quarter of 2021. Amazon stock(<b>AMZN</b>)&nbsp;is staring at a couple of potential catalysts in July, with earnings season being the most obvious of them.</p><p><blockquote>6月和2021年第二季度一起结束。亚马逊股票(<b>AMZN</b>）正在关注7月份的几个潜在催化剂，其中财报季是其中最明显的。</blockquote></p><p> The Amazon Maven will cover the cloud and e-commerce giant’s earnings event in detail via live blog – dates are yet to be announced by Amazon. In the meantime, our channel will preview second quarter earnings in the next few weeks, starting with a high-level view of consensus expectations.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊Maven将通过实时博客详细报道这家云和电子商务巨头的财报活动——亚马逊尚未宣布日期。与此同时，我们的频道将在未来几周内预览第二季度收益，首先是对共识预期的高层看法。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1be54c5dedec1015d3b333406eaa9cb\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"858\"><span>Figure 1; Amazon's HQ in Seattle, WA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1；亚马逊总部位于华盛顿州西雅图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What Wall Street expects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街的期望</b></blockquote></p><p> For second quarter 2021, it helps to think first about last year’s numbers. As the COVID-19 crisis was still in its early stages, Amazon&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;astounding revenue growth of 40% in second quarter of 2020, the highest since 2018. EPS of over $10 beat consensus by the widest margin ever.</p><p><blockquote>对于2021年第二季度，首先考虑去年的数字会有所帮助。由于COVID-19危机仍处于早期阶段，亚马逊在2020年第二季度实现了40%的惊人收入增长，为2018年以来的最高水平。每股收益超过10美元，以有史以来最大的幅度超出了市场预期。</blockquote></p><p> When most businesses suffered due to the shutdown of the global economies, Amazon benefited in second quarter 2020 from the trends in digital consumption and cloud adoption acceleration. This year, the Seattle-based company will be facing an uphill battle to produce top- and bottom-line growth.</p><p><blockquote>当大多数企业因全球经济关闭而遭受损失时，亚马逊在2020年第二季度受益于数字消费和云采用加速的趋势。今年，这家总部位于西雅图的公司将面临一场实现营收和利润增长的艰苦战斗。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Wall Street is betting on revenue increase of nearly 30% this time – see table below. On earnings per share, $12.22 would represent an increase of nearly 20%. The earnings consensus climbed by over one dollar since two months ago, probably in anticipation for&nbsp;another successful Amazon Prime Day event.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，华尔街仍押注这次收入将增长近30%——见下表。每股收益为12.22美元，将增长近20%。自两个月前以来，盈利共识攀升了1美元以上，可能是因为预期亚马逊Prime Day活动将再次取得成功。</blockquote></p><p> In the next few weeks, the Amazon Maven will dig deeper into what are likely to be the most hotly debated topics of conversation on earnings day.</p><p><blockquote>在接下来的几周内，亚马逊专家将更深入地挖掘财报日最热门的话题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/040bd5f518765adf07c85cd4a5955392\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"424\"><span>Figure 2: AMZN's earnings and revenues estimates.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AMZN的盈利和收入预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon stock around earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊股票围绕盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> Next, let’s look at the performance of Amazon stock around earnings dates to figure out whether it might make sense to buy AMZN ahead of it. The graph below shows three bars: the median two-week return of Amazon stock (1) before earnings, (2) after earnings, and (3) on any given day.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，让我们看看亚马逊股票在财报日期前后的表现，以确定在财报日期之前购买亚马逊是否有意义。下图显示了三个条形图：亚马逊股票的两周回报率中位数(1)财报前、(2)财报后以及(3)任何一天。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past 20 earnings seasons, Amazon share price increased by a median 2.6% prior to the event – much better than the 0.1% following earnings day. The consistency is also worth noting: the stock produced positive two-week returns<i>ahead</i>of earnings 80% of the time vs. only half the time<i>after</i>earnings.</p><p><blockquote>在过去20个财报季中，亚马逊股价在活动前上涨了2.6%，远好于财报日后的0.1%。一致性也值得注意：该股两周产生正回报<i>提前</i>80%的时间盈利，而只有一半的时间盈利<i>之后</i>收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e360e6fb7b2688f235851e032bd4615a\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"411\"><span>Figure 3: Median 2-week returns, earnings vs. non-earnings.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：两周回报率中位数，盈利与非盈利。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The data seems consistent with the idea of “buying the rumor, selling the news”. In other words, it is plausible that demand for AMZN shares rises ahead of the quarterly report, which has often exceeded analysts’ expectations. Once the numbers are in, investors proceed to lock in gains.</p><p><blockquote>数据似乎与“买谣言，卖消息”的思路一致。换句话说，对亚马逊股票的需求在季度报告发布之前上升是合理的，这往往超出了分析师的预期。一旦数据出来，投资者就会开始锁定收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Stock: Get Ready For Earnings Season<blockquote>亚马逊股票：为财报季做好准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Stock: Get Ready For Earnings Season<blockquote>亚马逊股票：为财报季做好准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 21:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The countdown to Amazon’s earnings day has begun. The Amazon Maven begins its preview by looking at analyst consensus and historical stock price behavior prior to and after the event.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊财报日已经进入倒计时。Amazon Maven通过查看分析师共识和事件前后的历史股价行为来开始预览。</blockquote></p><p> June is ending along with the second calendar quarter of 2021. Amazon stock(<b>AMZN</b>)&nbsp;is staring at a couple of potential catalysts in July, with earnings season being the most obvious of them.</p><p><blockquote>6月和2021年第二季度一起结束。亚马逊股票(<b>AMZN</b>）正在关注7月份的几个潜在催化剂，其中财报季是其中最明显的。</blockquote></p><p> The Amazon Maven will cover the cloud and e-commerce giant’s earnings event in detail via live blog – dates are yet to be announced by Amazon. In the meantime, our channel will preview second quarter earnings in the next few weeks, starting with a high-level view of consensus expectations.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊Maven将通过实时博客详细报道这家云和电子商务巨头的财报活动——亚马逊尚未宣布日期。与此同时，我们的频道将在未来几周内预览第二季度收益，首先是对共识预期的高层看法。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1be54c5dedec1015d3b333406eaa9cb\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"858\"><span>Figure 1; Amazon's HQ in Seattle, WA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1；亚马逊总部位于华盛顿州西雅图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What Wall Street expects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街的期望</b></blockquote></p><p> For second quarter 2021, it helps to think first about last year’s numbers. As the COVID-19 crisis was still in its early stages, Amazon&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;astounding revenue growth of 40% in second quarter of 2020, the highest since 2018. EPS of over $10 beat consensus by the widest margin ever.</p><p><blockquote>对于2021年第二季度，首先考虑去年的数字会有所帮助。由于COVID-19危机仍处于早期阶段，亚马逊在2020年第二季度实现了40%的惊人收入增长，为2018年以来的最高水平。每股收益超过10美元，以有史以来最大的幅度超出了市场预期。</blockquote></p><p> When most businesses suffered due to the shutdown of the global economies, Amazon benefited in second quarter 2020 from the trends in digital consumption and cloud adoption acceleration. This year, the Seattle-based company will be facing an uphill battle to produce top- and bottom-line growth.</p><p><blockquote>当大多数企业因全球经济关闭而遭受损失时，亚马逊在2020年第二季度受益于数字消费和云采用加速的趋势。今年，这家总部位于西雅图的公司将面临一场实现营收和利润增长的艰苦战斗。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Wall Street is betting on revenue increase of nearly 30% this time – see table below. On earnings per share, $12.22 would represent an increase of nearly 20%. The earnings consensus climbed by over one dollar since two months ago, probably in anticipation for&nbsp;another successful Amazon Prime Day event.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，华尔街仍押注这次收入将增长近30%——见下表。每股收益为12.22美元，将增长近20%。自两个月前以来，盈利共识攀升了1美元以上，可能是因为预期亚马逊Prime Day活动将再次取得成功。</blockquote></p><p> In the next few weeks, the Amazon Maven will dig deeper into what are likely to be the most hotly debated topics of conversation on earnings day.</p><p><blockquote>在接下来的几周内，亚马逊专家将更深入地挖掘财报日最热门的话题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/040bd5f518765adf07c85cd4a5955392\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"424\"><span>Figure 2: AMZN's earnings and revenues estimates.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AMZN的盈利和收入预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon stock around earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊股票围绕盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> Next, let’s look at the performance of Amazon stock around earnings dates to figure out whether it might make sense to buy AMZN ahead of it. The graph below shows three bars: the median two-week return of Amazon stock (1) before earnings, (2) after earnings, and (3) on any given day.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，让我们看看亚马逊股票在财报日期前后的表现，以确定在财报日期之前购买亚马逊是否有意义。下图显示了三个条形图：亚马逊股票的两周回报率中位数(1)财报前、(2)财报后以及(3)任何一天。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past 20 earnings seasons, Amazon share price increased by a median 2.6% prior to the event – much better than the 0.1% following earnings day. The consistency is also worth noting: the stock produced positive two-week returns<i>ahead</i>of earnings 80% of the time vs. only half the time<i>after</i>earnings.</p><p><blockquote>在过去20个财报季中，亚马逊股价在活动前上涨了2.6%，远好于财报日后的0.1%。一致性也值得注意：该股两周产生正回报<i>提前</i>80%的时间盈利，而只有一半的时间盈利<i>之后</i>收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e360e6fb7b2688f235851e032bd4615a\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"411\"><span>Figure 3: Median 2-week returns, earnings vs. non-earnings.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：两周回报率中位数，盈利与非盈利。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The data seems consistent with the idea of “buying the rumor, selling the news”. In other words, it is plausible that demand for AMZN shares rises ahead of the quarterly report, which has often exceeded analysts’ expectations. Once the numbers are in, investors proceed to lock in gains.</p><p><blockquote>数据似乎与“买谣言，卖消息”的思路一致。换句话说，对亚马逊股票的需求在季度报告发布之前上升是合理的，这往往超出了分析师的预期。一旦数据出来，投资者就会开始锁定收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/news/amazon-stock-get-ready-for-earnings-season\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/news/amazon-stock-get-ready-for-earnings-season","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178728317","content_text":"The countdown to Amazon’s earnings day has begun. The Amazon Maven begins its preview by looking at analyst consensus and historical stock price behavior prior to and after the event.\nJune is ending along with the second calendar quarter of 2021. Amazon stock(AMZN) is staring at a couple of potential catalysts in July, with earnings season being the most obvious of them.\nThe Amazon Maven will cover the cloud and e-commerce giant’s earnings event in detail via live blog – dates are yet to be announced by Amazon. In the meantime, our channel will preview second quarter earnings in the next few weeks, starting with a high-level view of consensus expectations.\nFigure 1; Amazon's HQ in Seattle, WA.\nWhat Wall Street expects\nFor second quarter 2021, it helps to think first about last year’s numbers. As the COVID-19 crisis was still in its early stages, Amazon delivered astounding revenue growth of 40% in second quarter of 2020, the highest since 2018. EPS of over $10 beat consensus by the widest margin ever.\nWhen most businesses suffered due to the shutdown of the global economies, Amazon benefited in second quarter 2020 from the trends in digital consumption and cloud adoption acceleration. This year, the Seattle-based company will be facing an uphill battle to produce top- and bottom-line growth.\nStill, Wall Street is betting on revenue increase of nearly 30% this time – see table below. On earnings per share, $12.22 would represent an increase of nearly 20%. The earnings consensus climbed by over one dollar since two months ago, probably in anticipation for another successful Amazon Prime Day event.\nIn the next few weeks, the Amazon Maven will dig deeper into what are likely to be the most hotly debated topics of conversation on earnings day.\nFigure 2: AMZN's earnings and revenues estimates.\nAmazon stock around earnings\nNext, let’s look at the performance of Amazon stock around earnings dates to figure out whether it might make sense to buy AMZN ahead of it. The graph below shows three bars: the median two-week return of Amazon stock (1) before earnings, (2) after earnings, and (3) on any given day.\nOver the past 20 earnings seasons, Amazon share price increased by a median 2.6% prior to the event – much better than the 0.1% following earnings day. The consistency is also worth noting: the stock produced positive two-week returnsaheadof earnings 80% of the time vs. only half the timeafterearnings.\nFigure 3: Median 2-week returns, earnings vs. non-earnings.\nThe data seems consistent with the idea of “buying the rumor, selling the news”. In other words, it is plausible that demand for AMZN shares rises ahead of the quarterly report, which has often exceeded analysts’ expectations. Once the numbers are in, investors proceed to lock in gains.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150937497,"gmtCreate":1624881312719,"gmtModify":1633947589105,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Eye]&nbsp;[Eye]&nbsp;","listText":"[Eye]&nbsp;[Eye]&nbsp;","text":"[Eye] [Eye]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150937497","repostId":"1103137872","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103137872","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624865492,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103137872?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 15:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103137872","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nStarbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.\nThe company","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Starbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.</li>  <li>The company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.</li>  <li>Even if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860ea0c3c4fcf2d5047e8c0a528096df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1021\"><span>mysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>星巴克仍然是全球领先的全球咖啡特许经营店。</li><li>该公司受到了疫情的沉重打击，但该公司继续开设商店，以推动疫情后的进一步增长。</li><li>即使我假设明年每股收益为4美元，估值看起来也很高，太高了，看不到巨大的吸引力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>mysondanube/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Starbucks (SBUX)</b>&nbsp;has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>星巴克(SBUX)</b>至少其股价表现相当有弹性，因为尽管经营条件非常具有挑战性，但该业务仍表现良好。这家领先咖啡公司的股价在疫情爆发前达到近100美元的峰值，在最初走低后，股价出现了非常稳定的复苏，目前交易价格为每股113美元，仅比近期和历史高点上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> While 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.</p><p><blockquote>虽然2021年的盈利能力将与2019年持平，增长也以令人信服的方式回归，但我仍然认为，尽管特许经营的质量无可争议，但估值太高，看不到任何吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pandemic - A Hit, And Savior</b></p><p><blockquote><b>流行病——大受欢迎，也是救世主</b></blockquote></p><p> Starbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克很早就认识到了疫情的影响，因为它在中国拥有规模庞大的业务，而且由于疫情比美国和欧洲早几个月爆发，因此很早就感受到了影响。</blockquote></p><p> Starbucks's second quarter fiscal&nbsp;results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克第二季度财报（相当于2020年第一季度）销售额下降5%。第三季度业绩显示了疫情的真正影响，销售额下降了38%，因为再多的成本控制也无法维持盈利能力，因为该公司在非常具有挑战性的情况下出现了相当大但同时非常可控的亏损。当时的条件。</blockquote></p><p> On the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>去年许多西方国家夏季重新开业后，收入大幅复苏，本财年最后一个季度仅下降了8%。在惨淡的第二季度业绩之后，全年收入下降了11%，至192亿美元，但盈利遭受的打击要大得多，营业利润下降了60%以上，至略高于15亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，几乎所有收入的绝对下降都转化为对营业收入线的一对一影响，包括重组成本上升、折旧费用稳定或略有增加，以及在许多修改和安全措施中商店费用略有增加。</blockquote></p><p> Net debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至本财年末，净债务为115亿美元。该公司在2019财年公布的调整后EBITDA约为60亿美元，但EBITDA数字远接近35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> By the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.</p><p><blockquote>到去年10月公布这些业绩时，股价已经反弹至80多岁，这既转化为基于调整后每股1.17美元利润的高市盈率，也转化为调整后每股2.83美元的高市盈率。即使根据2019年的收益，股价也是30倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Big Recovery</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大复苏</b></blockquote></p><p> At the start of 2021 the company&nbsp;posted&nbsp;first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.</p><p><blockquote>2021年初，该公司公布了本财年第一季度业绩，由于该公司尚未克服疫情的影响，销售额下降了6%以上。该公司重申了全年指引，要求销售额中值为285亿美元，每股收益中值为2.80美元，尽管本日历年有53周，这使得指引假设这一事实增加了10美分。</blockquote></p><p> The second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度业绩显示收入增长8%，随着西方经济体逐渐重新开放，这相当令人欣慰。此外，这并不是一个容易比较的情况，因为2020年第二季度的第二季度收入仅下降了5%，因此我们实际上看到了与2019年季度相比的增长。在稳健业绩的支持下，该公司将全年销售指引上调至289亿美元的中点。此外，盈利指引的中点已上调15美分，至每股2.95美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了今年前两个季度相对疲软之后，净债务已降至约100亿美元。今年净利润约为35亿美元，在加上约15亿美元的折旧费用以及数亿美元的利息和税收后，EBITDA应该会达到或超过2019年60亿美元的EBITDA数字。从这个意义上说，杠杆是非常适中的，当然也没什么大不了的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Based on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.</p><p><blockquote>根据目前每股113美元的股价计算，估值约为今年市盈率的38倍。然而，下半年的市盈率约为每股2美元，这可能意味着明年每股收益有可能跃升至4美元。这种盈利能力将预期市盈率降低至28倍。基于这个数字，倍数仍然很高，因为我意识到这可能需要一年的时间才能实现。</blockquote></p><p> I guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.</p><p><blockquote>我猜上述原因很可能是潘兴广场的阿克曼先生今年早些时候抛售股票的考虑因素。虽然今年每股收益3美元的数字是一致的，而且如果疫情消退，明年每股收益将达到4美元，但我看不到真正的触发因素。</blockquote></p><p> Based on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.</p><p><blockquote>基于这样的盈利能力，我认为这里的估值肯定看起来很满，太满了，我看不到吸引力，尽管我对这个非常高质量的特许经营权的质量和长期潜力毫不怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStarbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 15:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Starbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.</li>  <li>The company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.</li>  <li>Even if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860ea0c3c4fcf2d5047e8c0a528096df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1021\"><span>mysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>星巴克仍然是全球领先的全球咖啡特许经营店。</li><li>该公司受到了疫情的沉重打击，但该公司继续开设商店，以推动疫情后的进一步增长。</li><li>即使我假设明年每股收益为4美元，估值看起来也很高，太高了，看不到巨大的吸引力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>mysondanube/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Starbucks (SBUX)</b>&nbsp;has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>星巴克(SBUX)</b>至少其股价表现相当有弹性，因为尽管经营条件非常具有挑战性，但该业务仍表现良好。这家领先咖啡公司的股价在疫情爆发前达到近100美元的峰值，在最初走低后，股价出现了非常稳定的复苏，目前交易价格为每股113美元，仅比近期和历史高点上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> While 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.</p><p><blockquote>虽然2021年的盈利能力将与2019年持平，增长也以令人信服的方式回归，但我仍然认为，尽管特许经营的质量无可争议，但估值太高，看不到任何吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pandemic - A Hit, And Savior</b></p><p><blockquote><b>流行病——大受欢迎，也是救世主</b></blockquote></p><p> Starbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克很早就认识到了疫情的影响，因为它在中国拥有规模庞大的业务，而且由于疫情比美国和欧洲早几个月爆发，因此很早就感受到了影响。</blockquote></p><p> Starbucks's second quarter fiscal&nbsp;results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克第二季度财报（相当于2020年第一季度）销售额下降5%。第三季度业绩显示了疫情的真正影响，销售额下降了38%，因为再多的成本控制也无法维持盈利能力，因为该公司在非常具有挑战性的情况下出现了相当大但同时非常可控的亏损。当时的条件。</blockquote></p><p> On the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>去年许多西方国家夏季重新开业后，收入大幅复苏，本财年最后一个季度仅下降了8%。在惨淡的第二季度业绩之后，全年收入下降了11%，至192亿美元，但盈利遭受的打击要大得多，营业利润下降了60%以上，至略高于15亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，几乎所有收入的绝对下降都转化为对营业收入线的一对一影响，包括重组成本上升、折旧费用稳定或略有增加，以及在许多修改和安全措施中商店费用略有增加。</blockquote></p><p> Net debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至本财年末，净债务为115亿美元。该公司在2019财年公布的调整后EBITDA约为60亿美元，但EBITDA数字远接近35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> By the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.</p><p><blockquote>到去年10月公布这些业绩时，股价已经反弹至80多岁，这既转化为基于调整后每股1.17美元利润的高市盈率，也转化为调整后每股2.83美元的高市盈率。即使根据2019年的收益，股价也是30倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Big Recovery</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大复苏</b></blockquote></p><p> At the start of 2021 the company&nbsp;posted&nbsp;first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.</p><p><blockquote>2021年初，该公司公布了本财年第一季度业绩，由于该公司尚未克服疫情的影响，销售额下降了6%以上。该公司重申了全年指引，要求销售额中值为285亿美元，每股收益中值为2.80美元，尽管本日历年有53周，这使得指引假设这一事实增加了10美分。</blockquote></p><p> The second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度业绩显示收入增长8%，随着西方经济体逐渐重新开放，这相当令人欣慰。此外，这并不是一个容易比较的情况，因为2020年第二季度的第二季度收入仅下降了5%，因此我们实际上看到了与2019年季度相比的增长。在稳健业绩的支持下，该公司将全年销售指引上调至289亿美元的中点。此外，盈利指引的中点已上调15美分，至每股2.95美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了今年前两个季度相对疲软之后，净债务已降至约100亿美元。今年净利润约为35亿美元，在加上约15亿美元的折旧费用以及数亿美元的利息和税收后，EBITDA应该会达到或超过2019年60亿美元的EBITDA数字。从这个意义上说，杠杆是非常适中的，当然也没什么大不了的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Based on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.</p><p><blockquote>根据目前每股113美元的股价计算，估值约为今年市盈率的38倍。然而，下半年的市盈率约为每股2美元，这可能意味着明年每股收益有可能跃升至4美元。这种盈利能力将预期市盈率降低至28倍。基于这个数字，倍数仍然很高，因为我意识到这可能需要一年的时间才能实现。</blockquote></p><p> I guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.</p><p><blockquote>我猜上述原因很可能是潘兴广场的阿克曼先生今年早些时候抛售股票的考虑因素。虽然今年每股收益3美元的数字是一致的，而且如果疫情消退，明年每股收益将达到4美元，但我看不到真正的触发因素。</blockquote></p><p> Based on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.</p><p><blockquote>基于这样的盈利能力，我认为这里的估值肯定看起来很满，太满了，我看不到吸引力，尽管我对这个非常高质量的特许经营权的质量和长期潜力毫不怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436869-starbucks-too-hot-to-handle\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436869-starbucks-too-hot-to-handle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103137872","content_text":"Summary\n\nStarbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.\nThe company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.\nEven if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.\n\nmysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nStarbucks (SBUX) has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.\nWhile 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.\nPandemic - A Hit, And Savior\nStarbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.\nStarbucks's second quarter fiscal results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.\nOn the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.\nIn fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.\nNet debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.\nBy the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.\nA Big Recovery\nAt the start of 2021 the company posted first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.\nThe second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.\nNet debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.\nBased on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.\nI guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.\nBased on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SBUX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124520219,"gmtCreate":1624773664231,"gmtModify":1633948740329,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for a good price to enter","listText":"Waiting for a good price to enter","text":"Waiting for a good price to enter","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124520219","repostId":"1184001921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184001921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624763737,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184001921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184001921","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新力的公司之一，在电子商务行业和云计算服务领域处于领先地位。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股是一致的。</li><li>本文探讨了亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>今天，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）的定价似乎有点过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果(AAPL)或微软(MSFT)等其他热门股票。嗯，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将详细介绍我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的理由，以帮助您在未来进行更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一些重要的事情——我不是亚马逊专家，我很难评估成长型股票。我真的很怀疑我有能力估计一家公司未来的增长。我通过查看过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来做出未来的增长估计。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法近乎“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推并不好，因为未来与过去不同——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格可以很好地获得大致正确的估值。我总是尽量把我的估值定低，因为低买大赚总比高买亏好。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全边际</b>意思是买打折的东西....这就是伟大投资的全部秘密。规则1投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际进行购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持它的干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的钱从哪里来？亚马逊分为3个部分：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为两个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来可能会继续实现高增长。在本节中，我研究了亚马逊每个部门过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此做出保守的未来预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个部门的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是亚马逊北美业务的概况。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美的收入必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内将收入从2000亿美元增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常令人难以置信的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊国际部门的概况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入将增长20%，营业利润率也将提高。我认为营业利润率将逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊在美国市场类似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，AWS是：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计AWS细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预测25-30%的年收入增长率，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，云计算行业应该以17.5%的CAGR增长，直到2025年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为28%，因为AWS业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够通过将成本分摊给更多的人来获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率可能会超过28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测加在一起有助于我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行了股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购最多50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>资料来源：2020 10-K第60页，<i>增加了强调</i>但就我们而言，这段报价表明亚马逊在过去3年中没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲钱。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约260亿美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可以看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了7.7%的贴现率，因为这是我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本(WACC)。我假设股权成本为8%，而亚马逊在过去10年中的平均税率约为20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我今天用DCF模型找到了亚马逊的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部2个红框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到2025年，亚马逊的收入将超过8500亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据估计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约550B美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为3900亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很可能成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到有一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司收入中有多少将成为业务利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石盒子中，我应用了贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估。该模型预测该股票可能被高估约15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来5年的年回报率约为5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我并不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在当前价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我提出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价格”。这背后的想法是，AMZN股票越便宜，我们可以预期的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股2,200美元的年回报率约为15%，每股1,700美元的年回报率约为22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但当股票交易价格接近3,500美元时，将买入价格定为2,000美元似乎不合理吗？”有一点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能暴跌至2,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1,900美元（我希望当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估，因为它似乎在未来5年内提供约5%的年回报率。这并不意味着如果您是长期持有者，您应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者表现出色。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果你正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果您关注亚马逊已经有一段时间了，并且正在寻求进入，那么现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资该股票，我们仍然可以看到亚马逊成为世界上收入最多的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢您的阅读，我希望您今天休息得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新力的公司之一，在电子商务行业和云计算服务领域处于领先地位。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股是一致的。</li><li>本文探讨了亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>今天，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）的定价似乎有点过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果(AAPL)或微软(MSFT)等其他热门股票。嗯，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将详细介绍我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的理由，以帮助您在未来进行更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一些重要的事情——我不是亚马逊专家，我很难评估成长型股票。我真的很怀疑我有能力估计一家公司未来的增长。我通过查看过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来做出未来的增长估计。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法近乎“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推并不好，因为未来与过去不同——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格可以很好地获得大致正确的估值。我总是尽量把我的估值定低，因为低买大赚总比高买亏好。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全边际</b>意思是买打折的东西....这就是伟大投资的全部秘密。规则1投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际进行购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持它的干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的钱从哪里来？亚马逊分为3个部分：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为两个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来可能会继续实现高增长。在本节中，我研究了亚马逊每个部门过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此做出保守的未来预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个部门的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是亚马逊北美业务的概况。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美的收入必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内将收入从2000亿美元增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常令人难以置信的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊国际部门的概况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入将增长20%，营业利润率也将提高。我认为营业利润率将逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊在美国市场类似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，AWS是：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计AWS细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预测25-30%的年收入增长率，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，云计算行业应该以17.5%的CAGR增长，直到2025年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为28%，因为AWS业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够通过将成本分摊给更多的人来获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率可能会超过28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测加在一起有助于我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行了股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购最多50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>资料来源：2020 10-K第60页，<i>增加了强调</i>但就我们而言，这段报价表明亚马逊在过去3年中没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲钱。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约260亿美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可以看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了7.7%的贴现率，因为这是我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本(WACC)。我假设股权成本为8%，而亚马逊在过去10年中的平均税率约为20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我今天用DCF模型找到了亚马逊的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部2个红框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到2025年，亚马逊的收入将超过8500亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据估计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约550B美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为3900亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很可能成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到有一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司收入中有多少将成为业务利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石盒子中，我应用了贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估。该模型预测该股票可能被高估约15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来5年的年回报率约为5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我并不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在当前价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我提出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价格”。这背后的想法是，AMZN股票越便宜，我们可以预期的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股2,200美元的年回报率约为15%，每股1,700美元的年回报率约为22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但当股票交易价格接近3,500美元时，将买入价格定为2,000美元似乎不合理吗？”有一点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能暴跌至2,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1,900美元（我希望当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估，因为它似乎在未来5年内提供约5%的年回报率。这并不意味着如果您是长期持有者，您应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者表现出色。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果你正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果您关注亚马逊已经有一段时间了，并且正在寻求进入，那么现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资该股票，我们仍然可以看到亚马逊成为世界上收入最多的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢您的阅读，我希望您今天休息得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184001921","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.\nThis article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.\nI hope you enjoy.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nToday, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.\nSource: Author\nYou might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.\nIn this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.\nSomething important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.\nThis method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.\nBut after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.\n\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n margin of safety.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n\n\n Rule 1 Investing\n\nThis model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.\nBusiness Model\nWhere does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.\nAs a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.\nAnd later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nI projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.\nHopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.\nHere's a look at Amazon's International segment:\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nFor Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.\nAnd for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:\nSource: Author\nAWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about 17.5% CAGR until 2025.\nAdditionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.\nThese projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.\nCapital Allocation\nHow does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.\nSource: Author\nThe biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.\n\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.\n\n\n Source:2020 10-K page 60,\n emphasis added\n\nBut for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.\nAmazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.\nAmazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.\nValuation\nFirst, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.\nSource: Author\nI used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.\nThis model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.\nRight now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.\nSource: Author\nDown at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.\nSource: Author\nToday, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.\nThese estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.\nDown at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.\nThe model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.\n\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.\nBut the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.\nRecap\nToday, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.\nBut if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.\nEven if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.\nThank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122836187,"gmtCreate":1624609754249,"gmtModify":1633950574993,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool] [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122836187","repostId":"1136202921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136202921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624591759,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136202921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136202921","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan St","content":"<p><div> Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant. The Apple Analyst:Katy ...</p><p><blockquote><div>苹果公司（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）的股价今年迄今表现低迷，摩根士丹利的一位分析师认为这家科技巨头的股票存在长期买入机会。苹果分析师：凯蒂...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant. The Apple Analyst:Katy ...</p><p><blockquote><div>苹果公司（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）的股价今年迄今表现低迷，摩根士丹利的一位分析师认为这家科技巨头的股票存在长期买入机会。苹果分析师：凯蒂...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136202921","content_text":"Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant.\nThe Apple Analyst:Katy Huberty reiterated an Overweight rating on Apple with a $162 price target.\nThe Apple Takeaways:The incoming call volume on Apple shares is at a low amid investor concerns over a seasonally low period in the iPhone cycle,regulatory risk and difficult comps relative to the COVID-19-driven work-from-home and study-from-home demand, Huberty said in a note.\nAdditionally, investors fear a more evolutionary iPhone s-cycle will lead to extended iPhone replacement cycles, the analyst said.\nRevenues will likely decline in 2022, increasing the likelihood of negative estimate revisions, she said.\n\"We recognize these risks but have a more positive outlook,\" Huberty said.\nThe dominant bear case narrative now is the iPhone entering a more modest upgrade or \"s\" cycle — a period when iPhone revenue historically declined at a double-digit rate, the analyst said. She forecast a low risk of similar iPhone revenue decline next year.\nThis is due to the longer period of iPhone replacement cycle relative to the past, an expansion to Apple's trade-in, financing and installment offers and 5G adoption, which is still in its nascent stage, Huberty said.\n\"Taken together, these factors build confidence that the iPhone 13 cycle will not look like past s-cycles, which is reflected in our updated FY22 iPhone forecast of 231M units,\" the analyst said.\nThe June quarter will be stronger than originally expected, as iPhone and iPad builds are tracking ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimate, she said.\nHuberty raised her June quarter revenue and EPS estimates by 3%-5%.\nApple's catalyst path is more back-end loaded this year, the analyst said.\nThe company can drive low-teens annual revenue growth and high-teens annual EPS growth between fiscal years 2020 and 2023, she said.\n\"At24xFV/FCF, we believe the current valuation presents a good long-term buying opportunity.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128698907,"gmtCreate":1624512534509,"gmtModify":1634005007875,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128698907","repostId":"1119538009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167314772,"gmtCreate":1624247007696,"gmtModify":1634008929349,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Jingle bells 🎶","listText":"Jingle bells 🎶","text":"Jingle bells 🎶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167314772","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167314957,"gmtCreate":1624246963079,"gmtModify":1634008930187,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nike!","listText":"Nike!","text":"Nike!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167314957","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162548745,"gmtCreate":1624069301287,"gmtModify":1634011137378,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Surprised]&nbsp;","listText":"[Surprised]&nbsp;","text":"[Surprised]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162548745","repostId":"1118271544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118271544","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624023029,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118271544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow drops 400 points at the open, extending losses in its worst week since January<blockquote>道琼斯指数开盘下跌400点，延续1月份以来最糟糕的一周跌幅</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118271544","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks fell on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to post its worst week sinc","content":"<p>U.S. stocks fell on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to post its worst week since January, as bank shares led the market sell-off after the Federal Reserve's latest policy update.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周五下跌，道琼斯工业平均指数有望创下1月份以来最糟糕的一周，美联储最新政策更新后，银行股领跌市场。</blockquote></p><p> The blue-chip average dropped 400 points, bringing its week-to-date losses to 2.8% The S&amp;P 500 fell 0.8%, pushing its loss this week to more than 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>蓝筹股平均指数下跌400点，本周迄今跌幅达到2.8%。标普500下跌0.8%，本周跌幅超过1%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks extended their losses asSt. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said on CNBCthat it was natural for the Fed to tilt a little \"hawkish\" this week and that the first rate increase from the central bank would likely come in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>股市扩大跌幅。路易斯联储主席Jim Bullard在CNBC上表示，美联储本周倾向于稍微“鹰派”是很自然的，央行首次加息可能会在2022年进行。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street registered losses as the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon added two rate hikes to its 2023 forecast and increased its inflation projection for the year.</p><p><blockquote>周三下午，美联储在2023年预测中增加了两次加息，并上调了今年的通胀预测，华尔街出现下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The decline in stocks came as the Fed's actions caused a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve&nbsp;where the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys, like the&nbsp;2-year note, rose, while longer duration yields, such as the benchmark 10-year, fell.&nbsp;The retreat in long-dated bonds reflects less optimism toward economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.</p><p><blockquote>股市下跌之际，美联储的行动导致所谓的国债收益率曲线急剧变平，2年期国债等短期国债收益率上升，而基准10年期国债等长期国债收益率下降。长期债券的回落反映了对经济增长的不太乐观，而短端收益率的跃升则显示了对美联储加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> This phenomenon is hurting bank stocks particularly as bank earnings could take a hit when the spread between short-term and long-term rates narrows. Goldman Sachs shares fell more than 1% Friday, while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley also traded in the red.</p><p><blockquote>这种现象正在损害银行股，特别是当短期和长期利率之间的利差缩小时，银行盈利可能会受到打击。高盛股价周五下跌超过1%，摩根大通和摩根士丹利也出现亏损。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示，官员们已经讨论了缩减债券购买，并将在某个时候开始放缓资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> \"Investors may be interpreting the Fed's hawkish tilt Wednesday as a sign that an extended US post-pandemic economic expansion may be a bit harder to achieve in a potentially emerging environment of less accommodative monetary policy,\" said Goldman Sachs' Chris Hussey in a note.</p><p><blockquote>高盛(Goldman Sachs)的克里斯·赫西(Chris Hussey)在一份报告中表示：“投资者可能将美联储周三的鹰派倾向解读为一个迹象，表明在可能出现的货币政策不太宽松的环境下，美国大流行后经济扩张可能更难实现。”</blockquote></p><p> Most commodities prices rebounded a bit on Friday followingsharp declines this week&nbsp;as China attempts to cool rising prices and the U.S. dollar strengthens. Futures prices for copper, gold, and platinum rebounded Friday, but were still down big for the week.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国试图冷却不断上涨的物价和美元走强，大多数大宗商品价格在本周大幅下跌后，周五略有反弹。铜、黄金和铂的期货价格周五反弹，但本周仍大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Chip stocks, which have had a good week, looked set to continue their run on Friday with shares of Nvidia higher by about 1%.</p><p><blockquote>本周表现良好的芯片股周五似乎将继续上涨，英伟达股价上涨约1%。</blockquote></p><p> Adobe shares gained about 3% after earnings and revenue topped estimates.</p><p><blockquote>盈利和收入超出预期后，Adobe股价上涨约3%。</blockquote></p><p> Friday also coincides with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" where options and futures on indexes and equities expire. Many expect trading to be more volatile in light of this event.</p><p><blockquote>周五也恰逢季度“四重巫术”，指数和股票的期权和期货到期。许多人预计，鉴于这一事件，交易将更加波动。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow drops 400 points at the open, extending losses in its worst week since January<blockquote>道琼斯指数开盘下跌400点，延续1月份以来最糟糕的一周跌幅</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow drops 400 points at the open, extending losses in its worst week since January<blockquote>道琼斯指数开盘下跌400点，延续1月份以来最糟糕的一周跌幅</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 21:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks fell on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to post its worst week since January, as bank shares led the market sell-off after the Federal Reserve's latest policy update.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周五下跌，道琼斯工业平均指数有望创下1月份以来最糟糕的一周，美联储最新政策更新后，银行股领跌市场。</blockquote></p><p> The blue-chip average dropped 400 points, bringing its week-to-date losses to 2.8% The S&amp;P 500 fell 0.8%, pushing its loss this week to more than 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>蓝筹股平均指数下跌400点，本周迄今跌幅达到2.8%。标普500下跌0.8%，本周跌幅超过1%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks extended their losses asSt. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said on CNBCthat it was natural for the Fed to tilt a little \"hawkish\" this week and that the first rate increase from the central bank would likely come in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>股市扩大跌幅。路易斯联储主席Jim Bullard在CNBC上表示，美联储本周倾向于稍微“鹰派”是很自然的，央行首次加息可能会在2022年进行。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street registered losses as the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon added two rate hikes to its 2023 forecast and increased its inflation projection for the year.</p><p><blockquote>周三下午，美联储在2023年预测中增加了两次加息，并上调了今年的通胀预测，华尔街出现下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The decline in stocks came as the Fed's actions caused a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve&nbsp;where the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys, like the&nbsp;2-year note, rose, while longer duration yields, such as the benchmark 10-year, fell.&nbsp;The retreat in long-dated bonds reflects less optimism toward economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.</p><p><blockquote>股市下跌之际，美联储的行动导致所谓的国债收益率曲线急剧变平，2年期国债等短期国债收益率上升，而基准10年期国债等长期国债收益率下降。长期债券的回落反映了对经济增长的不太乐观，而短端收益率的跃升则显示了对美联储加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> This phenomenon is hurting bank stocks particularly as bank earnings could take a hit when the spread between short-term and long-term rates narrows. Goldman Sachs shares fell more than 1% Friday, while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley also traded in the red.</p><p><blockquote>这种现象正在损害银行股，特别是当短期和长期利率之间的利差缩小时，银行盈利可能会受到打击。高盛股价周五下跌超过1%，摩根大通和摩根士丹利也出现亏损。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示，官员们已经讨论了缩减债券购买，并将在某个时候开始放缓资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> \"Investors may be interpreting the Fed's hawkish tilt Wednesday as a sign that an extended US post-pandemic economic expansion may be a bit harder to achieve in a potentially emerging environment of less accommodative monetary policy,\" said Goldman Sachs' Chris Hussey in a note.</p><p><blockquote>高盛(Goldman Sachs)的克里斯·赫西(Chris Hussey)在一份报告中表示：“投资者可能将美联储周三的鹰派倾向解读为一个迹象，表明在可能出现的货币政策不太宽松的环境下，美国大流行后经济扩张可能更难实现。”</blockquote></p><p> Most commodities prices rebounded a bit on Friday followingsharp declines this week&nbsp;as China attempts to cool rising prices and the U.S. dollar strengthens. Futures prices for copper, gold, and platinum rebounded Friday, but were still down big for the week.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国试图冷却不断上涨的物价和美元走强，大多数大宗商品价格在本周大幅下跌后，周五略有反弹。铜、黄金和铂的期货价格周五反弹，但本周仍大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Chip stocks, which have had a good week, looked set to continue their run on Friday with shares of Nvidia higher by about 1%.</p><p><blockquote>本周表现良好的芯片股周五似乎将继续上涨，英伟达股价上涨约1%。</blockquote></p><p> Adobe shares gained about 3% after earnings and revenue topped estimates.</p><p><blockquote>盈利和收入超出预期后，Adobe股价上涨约3%。</blockquote></p><p> Friday also coincides with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" where options and futures on indexes and equities expire. Many expect trading to be more volatile in light of this event.</p><p><blockquote>周五也恰逢季度“四重巫术”，指数和股票的期权和期货到期。许多人预计，鉴于这一事件，交易将更加波动。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118271544","content_text":"U.S. stocks fell on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to post its worst week since January, as bank shares led the market sell-off after the Federal Reserve's latest policy update.\nThe blue-chip average dropped 400 points, bringing its week-to-date losses to 2.8% The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, pushing its loss this week to more than 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.5%.\nStocks extended their losses asSt. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said on CNBCthat it was natural for the Fed to tilt a little \"hawkish\" this week and that the first rate increase from the central bank would likely come in 2022.\nWall Street registered losses as the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon added two rate hikes to its 2023 forecast and increased its inflation projection for the year.\nThe decline in stocks came as the Fed's actions caused a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve where the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys, like the 2-year note, rose, while longer duration yields, such as the benchmark 10-year, fell. The retreat in long-dated bonds reflects less optimism toward economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.\nThis phenomenon is hurting bank stocks particularly as bank earnings could take a hit when the spread between short-term and long-term rates narrows. Goldman Sachs shares fell more than 1% Friday, while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley also traded in the red.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.\n\"Investors may be interpreting the Fed's hawkish tilt Wednesday as a sign that an extended US post-pandemic economic expansion may be a bit harder to achieve in a potentially emerging environment of less accommodative monetary policy,\" said Goldman Sachs' Chris Hussey in a note.\nMost commodities prices rebounded a bit on Friday followingsharp declines this week as China attempts to cool rising prices and the U.S. dollar strengthens. Futures prices for copper, gold, and platinum rebounded Friday, but were still down big for the week.\nChip stocks, which have had a good week, looked set to continue their run on Friday with shares of Nvidia higher by about 1%.\nAdobe shares gained about 3% after earnings and revenue topped estimates.\nFriday also coincides with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" where options and futures on indexes and equities expire. Many expect trading to be more volatile in light of this event.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161872959,"gmtCreate":1623920068171,"gmtModify":1634025868069,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Lovely]&nbsp;[Sly]&nbsp;","listText":"[Lovely]&nbsp;[Sly]&nbsp;","text":"[Lovely] [Sly]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161872959","repostId":"1147243421","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147243421","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623918768,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147243421?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 16:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Vaccine sector stocks gained in pre-market trading.<blockquote>疫苗板块股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147243421","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Vaccine sector stocks gained in pre-market trading.\nNovavax,Moderna and BioNTech shares were up bewt","content":"<p>Vaccine&nbsp;sector&nbsp;stocks gained in pre-market&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗板块股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Novavax,Moderna&nbsp;and&nbsp;BioNTech&nbsp;shares&nbsp;were&nbsp;up&nbsp;bewteen&nbsp;1%&nbsp;and&nbsp;5%.</p><p><blockquote>Novavax、Moderna和BioNTech股价上涨1%至5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcf7ccd098da30e231e2f93a2600de4a\" tg-width=\"1291\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Vaccine sector stocks gained in pre-market trading.<blockquote>疫苗板块股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVaccine sector stocks gained in pre-market trading.<blockquote>疫苗板块股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 16:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Vaccine&nbsp;sector&nbsp;stocks gained in pre-market&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗板块股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Novavax,Moderna&nbsp;and&nbsp;BioNTech&nbsp;shares&nbsp;were&nbsp;up&nbsp;bewteen&nbsp;1%&nbsp;and&nbsp;5%.</p><p><blockquote>Novavax、Moderna和BioNTech股价上涨1%至5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcf7ccd098da30e231e2f93a2600de4a\" tg-width=\"1291\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNTX":"BioNTech SE","NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147243421","content_text":"Vaccine sector stocks gained in pre-market trading.\nNovavax,Moderna and BioNTech shares were up bewteen 1% and 5%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVAX":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,"BNTX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169154580,"gmtCreate":1623823624940,"gmtModify":1634027522975,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really? [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Really? [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Really? [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169154580","repostId":"2143753069","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187801317,"gmtCreate":1623748232539,"gmtModify":1634029164064,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woah!&nbsp;","listText":"Woah!&nbsp;","text":"Woah!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187801317","repostId":"1114926830","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184725990,"gmtCreate":1623726282710,"gmtModify":1634029491340,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read later","listText":"Read later","text":"Read later","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184725990","repostId":"1167323938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167323938","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623723810,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167323938?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 10:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"My 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的3只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167323938","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These companies make good long-term core holdings.\nStock investing starts with picking the right com","content":"<p>These companies make good long-term core holdings.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司是很好的长期核心持股。</blockquote></p><p> Stock investing&nbsp;starts with picking the right companies. Remember, finding the nextmeme stockbefore the price takes off and selling at the high point is virtually impossible without a time machine.</p><p><blockquote>股票投资从选择合适的公司开始。请记住，如果没有时间机器，在价格起飞之前找到下一只模因股票并在高点卖出几乎是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, I like buying shares in high-quality companies with strong market positions that have competitive advantages that aren't easily duplicated. Granted, this is easier said than done, but these companies fit the description.</p><p><blockquote>相反，我喜欢购买具有强大市场地位、具有不易复制的竞争优势的优质公司的股票。诚然，这说起来容易做起来难，但这些公司符合描述。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/effed739609f2c132bbfba134fe0ff19\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Amazon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;has become synonymous with e-commerce, but the company is much more than that. It has done this by sticking to its principles, which include focusing on the customer, innovating, and planning for the long term. You can see this through its popular Amazon Prime subscription service, which includes delivery charges, and hardware devices like Alexa and Kindle. There is also its fast-growing, higher-margin Amazon Web Services (AWS) business that provides cloud computing services.</p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克：AMZN）已经成为电子商务的代名词，但该公司远不止于此。它通过坚持其原则做到了这一点，包括关注客户、创新和长期规划。你可以通过其广受欢迎的亚马逊Prime订阅服务（包括送货费）以及Alexa和Kindle等硬件设备看到这一点。还有其快速增长、利润更高的亚马逊网络服务（AWS）业务，提供云计算服务。</blockquote></p><p> Its presence is so dominant that Amazon completely changes an industry's dynamics when it decides to enter the fray. That's because it often provides cheap prices and fast delivery -- a compelling proposition. This happened when it pushed further into selling food and apparel, for instance. The company is also moving further into&nbsp;offering prescription drugs.</p><p><blockquote>它的存在如此占主导地位，以至于当亚马逊决定加入竞争时，它完全改变了一个行业的动态。这是因为它通常提供便宜的价格和快速的交货——这是一个令人信服的主张。例如，当它进一步进军食品和服装销售时，就会发生这种情况。该公司还进一步提供处方药。</blockquote></p><p> While its long-term focus means Amazon is willing to forgo short-term profits, the company is hugely profitable. Its operating profit grew from 2016's $4.2 billion to $22.9 billion last year. In the first quarter, the company's profit more than doubled from $4 billion to $8.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>虽然长期关注意味着亚马逊愿意放弃短期利润，但该公司利润丰厚。其营业利润从2016年的42亿美元增长到去年的229亿美元。第一季度，该公司的利润从40亿美元增长到88亿美元，增长了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Costco</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Costco</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Costco Wholesale</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:COST)&nbsp;has created quite a shopping experience. Known for its wide aisles, bulk items, and free samples, it has built a loyal and growing membership.</p><p><blockquote><b>好市多批发</b>（纳斯达克：COST）创造了相当不错的购物体验。它以其宽阔的过道、散装商品和免费样品而闻名，已经建立了忠诚且不断增长的会员。</blockquote></p><p> Costco's simple formula is hard to replicate: It focuses on high-quality merchandise and services, and sells them at low unit prices. Costco's paid members have grown from 47.6 million in 2016 to 58.1 million last year (the fiscal year ends on June 30). Meanwhile, its retention rate has hovered around 90%.</p><p><blockquote>Costco的简单公式很难复制：它专注于高质量的商品和服务，并以低单价出售。Costco的付费会员从2016年的4760万增长到去年的5810万（财年截至6月30日）。与此同时，其留存率一直徘徊在90%左右。</blockquote></p><p> With a focus on customer needs, it even has a generous return policy to help members have confidence in their purchases.</p><p><blockquote>专注于客户需求，它甚至有慷慨的退货政策，以帮助会员对他们的购买充满信心。</blockquote></p><p> Management also keeps an eye on improving results. It has had positive same-store sales (comps) for many years, including a 9% increase last year after excluding the effects of gasoline price changes and foreign currency exchange translation. Operating income grew from $3.7 billion to $5.4 billion over the last five years.</p><p><blockquote>管理层还关注改善结果。多年来，该公司的同店销售额(COMP)一直保持正增长，其中去年在排除汽油价格变化和外币兑换折算的影响后增长了9%。过去五年营业收入从37亿美元增长到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Recent results also provide encouragement that management continues to execute. Comps increased by 15.2% for the first three quarters of 2021, and operating income grew by more than 26% to $4.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>最近的结果也鼓励管理层继续执行。2021年前三季度业绩增长15.2%，营业收入增长超过26%，达到44亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While income investors can find higher yields than Costco's 0.8%, it does have a history of annually raising dividends. This includes increasing May's payment to $0.79 from the previous quarter's $0.70. But better still, the board of directors has declared large special dividends every few years. The most recent was a $10 payment last December.</p><p><blockquote>虽然收益投资者可以找到比Costco 0.8%更高的收益率，但它确实有每年提高股息的历史。这包括将5月份的付款从上一季度的0.70美元增加到0.79美元。但更好的是，董事会每隔几年就会宣布大笔特别股息。最近一次是去年12月支付的10美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Walmart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.沃尔玛</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Walmart</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:WMT)&nbsp;has built itself into the world's largest retailer, serving more than 240 million customers every week. The company, which opened its first discount store nearly six decades ago, squeezes costs and passes these savings on to the customer. This allows Walmart to offer the lowest prices on its goods, making it difficult for competitors to keep up.</p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：WMT）已成为全球最大的零售商，每周为超过2.4亿客户提供服务。该公司在近60年前开设了第一家折扣店，压缩成本并将这些节省下来的成本转嫁给顾客。这使得沃尔玛能够为其商品提供最低的价格，使竞争对手难以跟上。</blockquote></p><p> It isn't sitting still, either. It is keeping pace with online competitors, namely Amazon, by investing in technology to provide a seamless omnichannel experience to its shoppers. This includes launching the subscription service Walmart+, which provides delivery, gasoline discounts, and faster checkout at its stores.</p><p><blockquote>它也没有静止不动。它正在通过投资技术为购物者提供无缝的全渠道体验，与在线竞争对手亚马逊保持同步。这包括推出订阅服务Walmart+，该服务提供送货、汽油折扣和更快的商店结账速度。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, its adjusted revenue rose by 7.7% to $564.2 billion, driving operating income 9.3% higher to $23.4 billion. In the first quarter, revenue growth was about 2%, and management expects a low-single-digit percentage increase for the year. Its guidance calls for flattish operating income.</p><p><blockquote>去年，其调整后收入增长7.7%至5642亿美元，推动营业收入增长9.3%至234亿美元。第一季度收入增长约2%，管理层预计全年将实现低个位数百分比增长。其指导评级营业收入持平。</blockquote></p><p> While this outlook undoubtedly disappointed some investors, I'm not concerned. Management has its eyes on the long-term picture, and it is investing in technology to better serve its customers and remain a dominant retailer.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这一前景无疑让一些投资者感到失望，但我并不担心。管理层着眼于长远，正在投资技术，以更好地服务客户并保持零售商的主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart also offers a 1.6% yield, and it has also raised its quarterly dividend annually since initiating a payout in 1974. Already aDividend Aristocrat, it will become a Dividend King when the streak hits 50 years.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛还提供1.6%的收益率，自1974年开始派息以来，它还每年提高季度股息。它已经是股息贵族，当连胜达到50年时，它将成为股息之王。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While these are three different companies in various stages, each is a strong addition to your portfolio. Adding them will give you a high-growth stock, a steady grower that tends to pay large dividends every few years, and a dominant retailer that continues to grow and regularly increase payments to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这是处于不同阶段的三家不同公司，但每家公司都是您投资组合的有力补充。添加它们将为您提供一只高增长股票、一只往往每隔几年支付大量股息的稳定增长公司，以及一家持续增长并定期增加向股东支付的占主导地位的零售商。</blockquote></p><p> That's a winning combination that should make these core holdings a great addition to your portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个成功的组合，应该会使这些核心持股成为您投资组合的重要补充。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>My 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的3只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMy 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的3只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 10:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>These companies make good long-term core holdings.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司是很好的长期核心持股。</blockquote></p><p> Stock investing&nbsp;starts with picking the right companies. Remember, finding the nextmeme stockbefore the price takes off and selling at the high point is virtually impossible without a time machine.</p><p><blockquote>股票投资从选择合适的公司开始。请记住，如果没有时间机器，在价格起飞之前找到下一只模因股票并在高点卖出几乎是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, I like buying shares in high-quality companies with strong market positions that have competitive advantages that aren't easily duplicated. Granted, this is easier said than done, but these companies fit the description.</p><p><blockquote>相反，我喜欢购买具有强大市场地位、具有不易复制的竞争优势的优质公司的股票。诚然，这说起来容易做起来难，但这些公司符合描述。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/effed739609f2c132bbfba134fe0ff19\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Amazon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;has become synonymous with e-commerce, but the company is much more than that. It has done this by sticking to its principles, which include focusing on the customer, innovating, and planning for the long term. You can see this through its popular Amazon Prime subscription service, which includes delivery charges, and hardware devices like Alexa and Kindle. There is also its fast-growing, higher-margin Amazon Web Services (AWS) business that provides cloud computing services.</p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克：AMZN）已经成为电子商务的代名词，但该公司远不止于此。它通过坚持其原则做到了这一点，包括关注客户、创新和长期规划。你可以通过其广受欢迎的亚马逊Prime订阅服务（包括送货费）以及Alexa和Kindle等硬件设备看到这一点。还有其快速增长、利润更高的亚马逊网络服务（AWS）业务，提供云计算服务。</blockquote></p><p> Its presence is so dominant that Amazon completely changes an industry's dynamics when it decides to enter the fray. That's because it often provides cheap prices and fast delivery -- a compelling proposition. This happened when it pushed further into selling food and apparel, for instance. The company is also moving further into&nbsp;offering prescription drugs.</p><p><blockquote>它的存在如此占主导地位，以至于当亚马逊决定加入竞争时，它完全改变了一个行业的动态。这是因为它通常提供便宜的价格和快速的交货——这是一个令人信服的主张。例如，当它进一步进军食品和服装销售时，就会发生这种情况。该公司还进一步提供处方药。</blockquote></p><p> While its long-term focus means Amazon is willing to forgo short-term profits, the company is hugely profitable. Its operating profit grew from 2016's $4.2 billion to $22.9 billion last year. In the first quarter, the company's profit more than doubled from $4 billion to $8.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>虽然长期关注意味着亚马逊愿意放弃短期利润，但该公司利润丰厚。其营业利润从2016年的42亿美元增长到去年的229亿美元。第一季度，该公司的利润从40亿美元增长到88亿美元，增长了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Costco</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Costco</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Costco Wholesale</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:COST)&nbsp;has created quite a shopping experience. Known for its wide aisles, bulk items, and free samples, it has built a loyal and growing membership.</p><p><blockquote><b>好市多批发</b>（纳斯达克：COST）创造了相当不错的购物体验。它以其宽阔的过道、散装商品和免费样品而闻名，已经建立了忠诚且不断增长的会员。</blockquote></p><p> Costco's simple formula is hard to replicate: It focuses on high-quality merchandise and services, and sells them at low unit prices. Costco's paid members have grown from 47.6 million in 2016 to 58.1 million last year (the fiscal year ends on June 30). Meanwhile, its retention rate has hovered around 90%.</p><p><blockquote>Costco的简单公式很难复制：它专注于高质量的商品和服务，并以低单价出售。Costco的付费会员从2016年的4760万增长到去年的5810万（财年截至6月30日）。与此同时，其留存率一直徘徊在90%左右。</blockquote></p><p> With a focus on customer needs, it even has a generous return policy to help members have confidence in their purchases.</p><p><blockquote>专注于客户需求，它甚至有慷慨的退货政策，以帮助会员对他们的购买充满信心。</blockquote></p><p> Management also keeps an eye on improving results. It has had positive same-store sales (comps) for many years, including a 9% increase last year after excluding the effects of gasoline price changes and foreign currency exchange translation. Operating income grew from $3.7 billion to $5.4 billion over the last five years.</p><p><blockquote>管理层还关注改善结果。多年来，该公司的同店销售额(COMP)一直保持正增长，其中去年在排除汽油价格变化和外币兑换折算的影响后增长了9%。过去五年营业收入从37亿美元增长到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Recent results also provide encouragement that management continues to execute. Comps increased by 15.2% for the first three quarters of 2021, and operating income grew by more than 26% to $4.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>最近的结果也鼓励管理层继续执行。2021年前三季度业绩增长15.2%，营业收入增长超过26%，达到44亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While income investors can find higher yields than Costco's 0.8%, it does have a history of annually raising dividends. This includes increasing May's payment to $0.79 from the previous quarter's $0.70. But better still, the board of directors has declared large special dividends every few years. The most recent was a $10 payment last December.</p><p><blockquote>虽然收益投资者可以找到比Costco 0.8%更高的收益率，但它确实有每年提高股息的历史。这包括将5月份的付款从上一季度的0.70美元增加到0.79美元。但更好的是，董事会每隔几年就会宣布大笔特别股息。最近一次是去年12月支付的10美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Walmart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.沃尔玛</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Walmart</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:WMT)&nbsp;has built itself into the world's largest retailer, serving more than 240 million customers every week. The company, which opened its first discount store nearly six decades ago, squeezes costs and passes these savings on to the customer. This allows Walmart to offer the lowest prices on its goods, making it difficult for competitors to keep up.</p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：WMT）已成为全球最大的零售商，每周为超过2.4亿客户提供服务。该公司在近60年前开设了第一家折扣店，压缩成本并将这些节省下来的成本转嫁给顾客。这使得沃尔玛能够为其商品提供最低的价格，使竞争对手难以跟上。</blockquote></p><p> It isn't sitting still, either. It is keeping pace with online competitors, namely Amazon, by investing in technology to provide a seamless omnichannel experience to its shoppers. This includes launching the subscription service Walmart+, which provides delivery, gasoline discounts, and faster checkout at its stores.</p><p><blockquote>它也没有静止不动。它正在通过投资技术为购物者提供无缝的全渠道体验，与在线竞争对手亚马逊保持同步。这包括推出订阅服务Walmart+，该服务提供送货、汽油折扣和更快的商店结账速度。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, its adjusted revenue rose by 7.7% to $564.2 billion, driving operating income 9.3% higher to $23.4 billion. In the first quarter, revenue growth was about 2%, and management expects a low-single-digit percentage increase for the year. Its guidance calls for flattish operating income.</p><p><blockquote>去年，其调整后收入增长7.7%至5642亿美元，推动营业收入增长9.3%至234亿美元。第一季度收入增长约2%，管理层预计全年将实现低个位数百分比增长。其指导评级营业收入持平。</blockquote></p><p> While this outlook undoubtedly disappointed some investors, I'm not concerned. Management has its eyes on the long-term picture, and it is investing in technology to better serve its customers and remain a dominant retailer.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这一前景无疑让一些投资者感到失望，但我并不担心。管理层着眼于长远，正在投资技术，以更好地服务客户并保持零售商的主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart also offers a 1.6% yield, and it has also raised its quarterly dividend annually since initiating a payout in 1974. Already aDividend Aristocrat, it will become a Dividend King when the streak hits 50 years.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛还提供1.6%的收益率，自1974年开始派息以来，它还每年提高季度股息。它已经是股息贵族，当连胜达到50年时，它将成为股息之王。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While these are three different companies in various stages, each is a strong addition to your portfolio. Adding them will give you a high-growth stock, a steady grower that tends to pay large dividends every few years, and a dominant retailer that continues to grow and regularly increase payments to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这是处于不同阶段的三家不同公司，但每家公司都是您投资组合的有力补充。添加它们将为您提供一只高增长股票、一只往往每隔几年支付大量股息的稳定增长公司，以及一家持续增长并定期增加向股东支付的占主导地位的零售商。</blockquote></p><p> That's a winning combination that should make these core holdings a great addition to your portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个成功的组合，应该会使这些核心持股成为您投资组合的重要补充。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/14/my-3-favorite-stocks-right-now/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","COST":"好市多","WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/14/my-3-favorite-stocks-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167323938","content_text":"These companies make good long-term core holdings.\nStock investing starts with picking the right companies. Remember, finding the nextmeme stockbefore the price takes off and selling at the high point is virtually impossible without a time machine.\nInstead, I like buying shares in high-quality companies with strong market positions that have competitive advantages that aren't easily duplicated. Granted, this is easier said than done, but these companies fit the description.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Amazon\nAmazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has become synonymous with e-commerce, but the company is much more than that. It has done this by sticking to its principles, which include focusing on the customer, innovating, and planning for the long term. You can see this through its popular Amazon Prime subscription service, which includes delivery charges, and hardware devices like Alexa and Kindle. There is also its fast-growing, higher-margin Amazon Web Services (AWS) business that provides cloud computing services.\nIts presence is so dominant that Amazon completely changes an industry's dynamics when it decides to enter the fray. That's because it often provides cheap prices and fast delivery -- a compelling proposition. This happened when it pushed further into selling food and apparel, for instance. The company is also moving further into offering prescription drugs.\nWhile its long-term focus means Amazon is willing to forgo short-term profits, the company is hugely profitable. Its operating profit grew from 2016's $4.2 billion to $22.9 billion last year. In the first quarter, the company's profit more than doubled from $4 billion to $8.8 billion.\n2. Costco\nCostco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) has created quite a shopping experience. Known for its wide aisles, bulk items, and free samples, it has built a loyal and growing membership.\nCostco's simple formula is hard to replicate: It focuses on high-quality merchandise and services, and sells them at low unit prices. Costco's paid members have grown from 47.6 million in 2016 to 58.1 million last year (the fiscal year ends on June 30). Meanwhile, its retention rate has hovered around 90%.\nWith a focus on customer needs, it even has a generous return policy to help members have confidence in their purchases.\nManagement also keeps an eye on improving results. It has had positive same-store sales (comps) for many years, including a 9% increase last year after excluding the effects of gasoline price changes and foreign currency exchange translation. Operating income grew from $3.7 billion to $5.4 billion over the last five years.\nRecent results also provide encouragement that management continues to execute. Comps increased by 15.2% for the first three quarters of 2021, and operating income grew by more than 26% to $4.4 billion.\nWhile income investors can find higher yields than Costco's 0.8%, it does have a history of annually raising dividends. This includes increasing May's payment to $0.79 from the previous quarter's $0.70. But better still, the board of directors has declared large special dividends every few years. The most recent was a $10 payment last December.\n3. Walmart\nWalmart (NYSE:WMT) has built itself into the world's largest retailer, serving more than 240 million customers every week. The company, which opened its first discount store nearly six decades ago, squeezes costs and passes these savings on to the customer. This allows Walmart to offer the lowest prices on its goods, making it difficult for competitors to keep up.\nIt isn't sitting still, either. It is keeping pace with online competitors, namely Amazon, by investing in technology to provide a seamless omnichannel experience to its shoppers. This includes launching the subscription service Walmart+, which provides delivery, gasoline discounts, and faster checkout at its stores.\nLast year, its adjusted revenue rose by 7.7% to $564.2 billion, driving operating income 9.3% higher to $23.4 billion. In the first quarter, revenue growth was about 2%, and management expects a low-single-digit percentage increase for the year. Its guidance calls for flattish operating income.\nWhile this outlook undoubtedly disappointed some investors, I'm not concerned. Management has its eyes on the long-term picture, and it is investing in technology to better serve its customers and remain a dominant retailer.\nWalmart also offers a 1.6% yield, and it has also raised its quarterly dividend annually since initiating a payout in 1974. Already aDividend Aristocrat, it will become a Dividend King when the streak hits 50 years.\nWhile these are three different companies in various stages, each is a strong addition to your portfolio. Adding them will give you a high-growth stock, a steady grower that tends to pay large dividends every few years, and a dominant retailer that continues to grow and regularly increase payments to shareholders.\nThat's a winning combination that should make these core holdings a great addition to your portfolio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WMT":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"COST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184722652,"gmtCreate":1623726246776,"gmtModify":1634029491927,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570925230110099","authorIdStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool] [Cool] [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184722652","repostId":"114899451","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":114899451,"gmtCreate":1623063308869,"gmtModify":1631884627596,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【老虎7周年】集卡瓜分百万奖金","htmlText":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可参与活动</a> &#x1;如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。&#x1;如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。&#x1; 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","listText":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可参与活动</a> &#x1;如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。&#x1;如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。&#x1; 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 本次7周年活动涉及不同国家和地区，由于各地区的监管要求不同，不同地区的活动奖励会有所区别。欲知详情，请点击下方活动链接，登陆您的账号，并点击“活动规则“查看详情。","text":"老虎7周年给大家发福利了，集齐TIGER五个字母即有机会瓜分百万奖金，你准备好了吗？ 戳我即可参与活动 \u0001如何参与？ 用户可通过完成活动页面展示的当日任务列表来获得字母卡，每完成一个任务即可随机获得一个字母，用户集齐“TIGER”五个字母即可参与瓜分百万股票代金券，每个用户单日最多可获得20张字母卡（不包括好友赠予和魔法卡）。 用户在活动期间邀请累计7名好友完成注册并开户（注册时间和开户时间均在活动期间），即可获得一张魔法卡（每人仅可获得一张魔法卡）。魔法卡可用于兑换TIGER中的任意一个字母。\u0001如果用户的某一字母卡数量为0，则字母卡为灰色，用户可通过点击灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用户的字母卡数量大于0，则字母卡为彩色，用户可通过点击彩色的字母卡向好友赠送卡片。当用户集齐TIGER之后将无法再索要卡片或者赠送卡片。 \u0001 \u0001如何获得奖励？ 用户可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期间进行开奖，所有集齐TIGER的客户可点击活动页面的“开奖”按钮，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券奖励。在开奖时间段内未点击开奖的用户将无法获得奖励。\u0001 奖励发放： 股票代金券将在开奖后的1个工作日内发放至用户的奖励中心，用户需要在奖励发放后的20天内前往【Tiger Trade APP > 我的 > 活动奖励】领取，过期未领取的奖励将自动失效。 重要提示： 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[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103129778","repostId":"1188611661","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188611661","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619734487,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188611661?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-30 06:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon sales surge 44% as it smashes earnings expectations<blockquote>亚马逊销售额飙升44%，超出盈利预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188611661","media":"CNBC","summary":"Amazon released first-quarter results on Thursday that trounced analysts’ expectations.\nThe company ","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Amazon released first-quarter results on Thursday that trounced analysts’ expectations.</li>  <li>The company confirmed that this year’s Prime Day will take place in June, which will likely help year over year comparisons for revenue in the second quarter.</li> </ul> Amazonshares climbed more than 3.5% in extended trading Thursday after the company&nbsp;released&nbsp;its first-quarter earnings, beating Wall Street’s expectations for earnings and revenue.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊周四发布的第一季度业绩超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>该公司确认，今年的Prime Day将于6月举行，这可能有助于第二季度收入的同比比较。</li></ul>亚马逊股价周四在盘后交易中上涨超过3.5%，此前该公司发布了第一季度财报，超出了华尔街对盈利和收入的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798d7f0536203d2ae33b543f4dabf204\" tg-width=\"1281\" tg-height=\"591\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Here’s how the e-commerce giant fared, relative to analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:</p><p><blockquote>以下是这家电子商务巨头相对于Refinitiv编制的分析师估计的表现：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Earnings:</b>$15.79 per share vs. $9.54 per share expected</li>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>$108.52 billion vs. $104.47 billion expected</li> </ul> Few companies have benefited from the pandemic-fueled surge of online shoppingas much as Amazon. Its first-quarter results showed the company’s business continues to be buoyed by the pandemic, with sales soaring 44% year-over-year to $108.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>每股15.79美元，预期每股9.54美元</li><li><b>收入：</b>1,085.2亿美元，预期为1,044.7亿美元</li></ul>很少有公司像亚马逊那样从大流行推动的在线购物激增中受益。其第一季度业绩显示，该公司的业务继续受到疫情的提振，销售额同比飙升44%至1085亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon’s guidance for the second quarter implies that it expects the momentum to continue, which should help allay investor fears that business could slow in a post-pandemic environment. The company expects to post revenue between $110 billion and $116 billion, surpassing Wall Street’s projection $108.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊对第二季度的指引暗示，预计这一势头将持续下去，这应该有助于减轻投资者对大流行后环境下业务可能放缓的担忧。该公司预计营收将在1100亿美元至1160亿美元之间，超过华尔街预测的1086亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, Amazon confirmed in its guidance that this year’s Prime Day will take place in June, which will likely help year-over-year comparisons for revenue in the second quarter. Typically, Amazon’s annual, two-day discount bonanza takes place in July, but the company postponed the event to October last year amid pandemic-related uncertainty.</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，亚马逊在其指引中确认，今年的Prime Day将于6月举行，这可能有助于第二季度收入的同比比较。通常情况下，亚马逊一年一度为期两天的折扣活动在7月举行，但由于与大流行相关的不确定性，该公司去年将活动推迟到了10月。</blockquote></p><p> When asked about the Prime Day timing, CFO Brian Olsavsky said on a call with investors: “In many areas, July is vacation month, so it might be better for customers, sellers and vendors to experiment with a different time period. We believe that it might be better timing later in [the second quarter], so that’s what we’re testing this year.”</p><p><blockquote>当被问及Prime Day的时间安排时，首席财务官Brian Olsavsky在与投资者的看涨期权上表示：“在许多地区，7月是假期月，因此客户、卖家和供应商尝试不同的时间段可能会更好。我们相信，[第二季度]晚些时候可能是更好的时机，所以这就是我们今年测试的。”</blockquote></p><p> Outside of its core retail segment, Amazon’s cloud-computing and advertising businesses continue to boom. Amazon Web Servicessawnet sales of $13.5 billion during the quarter, up 32% year over year. Amazon doesn’t disclose advertising sales, but it’s included in the company’s “Other” category, which saw its revenues grow 77% year over year to $6.9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>除了核心零售部门之外，亚马逊的云计算和广告业务继续蓬勃发展。亚马逊网络服务本季度净销售额为135亿美元，同比增长32%。亚马逊没有披露广告销售额，但它包含在该公司的“其他”类别中，该类别的收入同比增长77%，达到69亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos also gave a rare glimpse into how the company’s streaming business has fared during the pandemic, as stuck-at-home consumers relied on online entertainment to keep busy. “As Prime Video turns 10, over 175 million Prime members have streamed shows and movies in the past year, and streaming hours are up more than 70% year over year,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊首席执行官杰夫·贝索斯还罕见地介绍了亚马逊流媒体业务在疫情期间的表现，因为被困在家里的消费者依靠在线娱乐来保持忙碌。“随着Prime Video迎来10周年，过去一年有超过1.75亿Prime会员观看了节目和电影，流媒体播放时间同比增长了70%以上，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon’s streaming service, Prime Video, is a key offering of the company’s Prime subscription service, which costs $119 a year and includes a range of other benefits like free, two-day shipping. Bezos disclosed earlier this month that the company now has 200 million Prime subscribers, 50 million more than it had at the start of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的流媒体服务Prime Video是该公司Prime订阅服务的一项关键产品，该服务每年收费119美元，并包括一系列其他福利，例如免费两天送货。贝佐斯本月早些时候透露，该公司目前拥有2亿Prime用户，比2020年初增加了5000万。</blockquote></p><p> Physical stores revenue, which includes Whole Foods Market and other brick-and-mortar offerings like Amazon Books, continued to fall. Sales slumped 16% to $3.9 billion. The category excludes online delivery, Olsavsky said.</p><p><blockquote>实体店收入，包括全食超市和亚马逊图书等其他实体产品，继续下降。销售额下降16%至39亿美元。奥尔萨夫斯基说，该类别不包括在线交付。</blockquote></p><p> During the quarter, Amazon’s sales grew faster internationally than they did in North America. International revenue surged 60% year over year, more than any other segment, while North America revenue climbed 40%.</p><p><blockquote>本季度，亚马逊的国际销售额增长速度快于北美。国际收入同比飙升60%，超过任何其他细分市场，而北美收入则增长40%。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, Amazon will incur fewer costs this year related to coronavirus safety measures. Operating income is forecast to be between $4.5 billion and $8 billion in the second quarter, assuming $1.5 billion of costs related to Covid-19. That’s in line with what Amazon executives predicted last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，亚马逊今年与冠状病毒安全措施相关的成本将会减少。假设与Covid-19相关的成本为15亿美元，预计第二季度营业收入将在45亿美元至80亿美元之间。这与亚马逊高管上季度的预测一致。</blockquote></p><p> AmazonsaidWednesday it would spend more than $1 billion on raising wages for over half a million of its U.S. operations workers. On a call with reporters, Olsavsky said it decided to move up the pay increase from the fall to this spring as volumes remain just as strong as they were at the beginning of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊周三表示，将斥资超过10亿美元为超过50万美国运营员工提高工资。奥尔萨夫斯基在与记者的看涨期权上表示，由于销量仍然与大流行开始时一样强劲，公司决定将加薪从秋季提前到今年春季。</blockquote></p><p> Olsavsky declined to comment on Amazon’s CEO transition plans, which will come into play once Bezossteps down in the third quarter. Bezos will turn the helm over to AWS CEO Andy Jassy and assume the role of executive chairman of Amazon’s board.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔萨夫斯基拒绝就亚马逊首席执行官过渡计划发表评论，该计划将在贝佐斯第三季度卸任后发挥作用。贝佐斯将把掌舵权移交给AWS首席执行官安迪·贾西，并担任亚马逊董事会执行主席。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1609915699154","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon sales surge 44% as it smashes earnings expectations<blockquote>亚马逊销售额飙升44%，超出盈利预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon sales surge 44% as it smashes earnings expectations<blockquote>亚马逊销售额飙升44%，超出盈利预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNBC</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-30 06:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Amazon released first-quarter results on Thursday that trounced analysts’ expectations.</li>  <li>The company confirmed that this year’s Prime Day will take place in June, which will likely help year over year comparisons for revenue in the second quarter.</li> </ul> Amazonshares climbed more than 3.5% in extended trading Thursday after the company&nbsp;released&nbsp;its first-quarter earnings, beating Wall Street’s expectations for earnings and revenue.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊周四发布的第一季度业绩超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>该公司确认，今年的Prime Day将于6月举行，这可能有助于第二季度收入的同比比较。</li></ul>亚马逊股价周四在盘后交易中上涨超过3.5%，此前该公司发布了第一季度财报，超出了华尔街对盈利和收入的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798d7f0536203d2ae33b543f4dabf204\" tg-width=\"1281\" tg-height=\"591\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Here’s how the e-commerce giant fared, relative to analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:</p><p><blockquote>以下是这家电子商务巨头相对于Refinitiv编制的分析师估计的表现：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Earnings:</b>$15.79 per share vs. $9.54 per share expected</li>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>$108.52 billion vs. $104.47 billion expected</li> </ul> Few companies have benefited from the pandemic-fueled surge of online shoppingas much as Amazon. Its first-quarter results showed the company’s business continues to be buoyed by the pandemic, with sales soaring 44% year-over-year to $108.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>每股15.79美元，预期每股9.54美元</li><li><b>收入：</b>1,085.2亿美元，预期为1,044.7亿美元</li></ul>很少有公司像亚马逊那样从大流行推动的在线购物激增中受益。其第一季度业绩显示，该公司的业务继续受到疫情的提振，销售额同比飙升44%至1085亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon’s guidance for the second quarter implies that it expects the momentum to continue, which should help allay investor fears that business could slow in a post-pandemic environment. The company expects to post revenue between $110 billion and $116 billion, surpassing Wall Street’s projection $108.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊对第二季度的指引暗示，预计这一势头将持续下去，这应该有助于减轻投资者对大流行后环境下业务可能放缓的担忧。该公司预计营收将在1100亿美元至1160亿美元之间，超过华尔街预测的1086亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, Amazon confirmed in its guidance that this year’s Prime Day will take place in June, which will likely help year-over-year comparisons for revenue in the second quarter. Typically, Amazon’s annual, two-day discount bonanza takes place in July, but the company postponed the event to October last year amid pandemic-related uncertainty.</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，亚马逊在其指引中确认，今年的Prime Day将于6月举行，这可能有助于第二季度收入的同比比较。通常情况下，亚马逊一年一度为期两天的折扣活动在7月举行，但由于与大流行相关的不确定性，该公司去年将活动推迟到了10月。</blockquote></p><p> When asked about the Prime Day timing, CFO Brian Olsavsky said on a call with investors: “In many areas, July is vacation month, so it might be better for customers, sellers and vendors to experiment with a different time period. We believe that it might be better timing later in [the second quarter], so that’s what we’re testing this year.”</p><p><blockquote>当被问及Prime Day的时间安排时，首席财务官Brian Olsavsky在与投资者的看涨期权上表示：“在许多地区，7月是假期月，因此客户、卖家和供应商尝试不同的时间段可能会更好。我们相信，[第二季度]晚些时候可能是更好的时机，所以这就是我们今年测试的。”</blockquote></p><p> Outside of its core retail segment, Amazon’s cloud-computing and advertising businesses continue to boom. Amazon Web Servicessawnet sales of $13.5 billion during the quarter, up 32% year over year. Amazon doesn’t disclose advertising sales, but it’s included in the company’s “Other” category, which saw its revenues grow 77% year over year to $6.9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>除了核心零售部门之外，亚马逊的云计算和广告业务继续蓬勃发展。亚马逊网络服务本季度净销售额为135亿美元，同比增长32%。亚马逊没有披露广告销售额，但它包含在该公司的“其他”类别中，该类别的收入同比增长77%，达到69亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos also gave a rare glimpse into how the company’s streaming business has fared during the pandemic, as stuck-at-home consumers relied on online entertainment to keep busy. “As Prime Video turns 10, over 175 million Prime members have streamed shows and movies in the past year, and streaming hours are up more than 70% year over year,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊首席执行官杰夫·贝索斯还罕见地介绍了亚马逊流媒体业务在疫情期间的表现，因为被困在家里的消费者依靠在线娱乐来保持忙碌。“随着Prime Video迎来10周年，过去一年有超过1.75亿Prime会员观看了节目和电影，流媒体播放时间同比增长了70%以上，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon’s streaming service, Prime Video, is a key offering of the company’s Prime subscription service, which costs $119 a year and includes a range of other benefits like free, two-day shipping. Bezos disclosed earlier this month that the company now has 200 million Prime subscribers, 50 million more than it had at the start of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的流媒体服务Prime Video是该公司Prime订阅服务的一项关键产品，该服务每年收费119美元，并包括一系列其他福利，例如免费两天送货。贝佐斯本月早些时候透露，该公司目前拥有2亿Prime用户，比2020年初增加了5000万。</blockquote></p><p> Physical stores revenue, which includes Whole Foods Market and other brick-and-mortar offerings like Amazon Books, continued to fall. Sales slumped 16% to $3.9 billion. The category excludes online delivery, Olsavsky said.</p><p><blockquote>实体店收入，包括全食超市和亚马逊图书等其他实体产品，继续下降。销售额下降16%至39亿美元。奥尔萨夫斯基说，该类别不包括在线交付。</blockquote></p><p> During the quarter, Amazon’s sales grew faster internationally than they did in North America. International revenue surged 60% year over year, more than any other segment, while North America revenue climbed 40%.</p><p><blockquote>本季度，亚马逊的国际销售额增长速度快于北美。国际收入同比飙升60%，超过任何其他细分市场，而北美收入则增长40%。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, Amazon will incur fewer costs this year related to coronavirus safety measures. Operating income is forecast to be between $4.5 billion and $8 billion in the second quarter, assuming $1.5 billion of costs related to Covid-19. That’s in line with what Amazon executives predicted last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，亚马逊今年与冠状病毒安全措施相关的成本将会减少。假设与Covid-19相关的成本为15亿美元，预计第二季度营业收入将在45亿美元至80亿美元之间。这与亚马逊高管上季度的预测一致。</blockquote></p><p> AmazonsaidWednesday it would spend more than $1 billion on raising wages for over half a million of its U.S. operations workers. On a call with reporters, Olsavsky said it decided to move up the pay increase from the fall to this spring as volumes remain just as strong as they were at the beginning of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊周三表示，将斥资超过10亿美元为超过50万美国运营员工提高工资。奥尔萨夫斯基在与记者的看涨期权上表示，由于销量仍然与大流行开始时一样强劲，公司决定将加薪从秋季提前到今年春季。</blockquote></p><p> Olsavsky declined to comment on Amazon’s CEO transition plans, which will come into play once Bezossteps down in the third quarter. Bezos will turn the helm over to AWS CEO Andy Jassy and assume the role of executive chairman of Amazon’s board.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔萨夫斯基拒绝就亚马逊首席执行官过渡计划发表评论，该计划将在贝佐斯第三季度卸任后发挥作用。贝佐斯将把掌舵权移交给AWS首席执行官安迪·贾西，并担任亚马逊董事会执行主席。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/amazon-amzn-earnings-q1-2021.html\">CNBC</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/amazon-amzn-earnings-q1-2021.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188611661","content_text":"Amazon released first-quarter results on Thursday that trounced analysts’ expectations.\nThe company confirmed that this year’s Prime Day will take place in June, which will likely help year over year comparisons for revenue in the second quarter.\n\nAmazonshares climbed more than 3.5% in extended trading Thursday after the company released its first-quarter earnings, beating Wall Street’s expectations for earnings and revenue.\n\nHere’s how the e-commerce giant fared, relative to analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:\n\nEarnings:$15.79 per share vs. $9.54 per share expected\nRevenue:$108.52 billion vs. $104.47 billion expected\n\nFew companies have benefited from the pandemic-fueled surge of online shoppingas much as Amazon. Its first-quarter results showed the company’s business continues to be buoyed by the pandemic, with sales soaring 44% year-over-year to $108.5 billion.\nAmazon’s guidance for the second quarter implies that it expects the momentum to continue, which should help allay investor fears that business could slow in a post-pandemic environment. The company expects to post revenue between $110 billion and $116 billion, surpassing Wall Street’s projection $108.6 billion.\nCrucially, Amazon confirmed in its guidance that this year’s Prime Day will take place in June, which will likely help year-over-year comparisons for revenue in the second quarter. Typically, Amazon’s annual, two-day discount bonanza takes place in July, but the company postponed the event to October last year amid pandemic-related uncertainty.\nWhen asked about the Prime Day timing, CFO Brian Olsavsky said on a call with investors: “In many areas, July is vacation month, so it might be better for customers, sellers and vendors to experiment with a different time period. We believe that it might be better timing later in [the second quarter], so that’s what we’re testing this year.”\nOutside of its core retail segment, Amazon’s cloud-computing and advertising businesses continue to boom. Amazon Web Servicessawnet sales of $13.5 billion during the quarter, up 32% year over year. Amazon doesn’t disclose advertising sales, but it’s included in the company’s “Other” category, which saw its revenues grow 77% year over year to $6.9 billion.\nAmazon CEO Jeff Bezos also gave a rare glimpse into how the company’s streaming business has fared during the pandemic, as stuck-at-home consumers relied on online entertainment to keep busy. “As Prime Video turns 10, over 175 million Prime members have streamed shows and movies in the past year, and streaming hours are up more than 70% year over year,” he said.\nAmazon’s streaming service, Prime Video, is a key offering of the company’s Prime subscription service, which costs $119 a year and includes a range of other benefits like free, two-day shipping. Bezos disclosed earlier this month that the company now has 200 million Prime subscribers, 50 million more than it had at the start of 2020.\nPhysical stores revenue, which includes Whole Foods Market and other brick-and-mortar offerings like Amazon Books, continued to fall. Sales slumped 16% to $3.9 billion. The category excludes online delivery, Olsavsky said.\nDuring the quarter, Amazon’s sales grew faster internationally than they did in North America. International revenue surged 60% year over year, more than any other segment, while North America revenue climbed 40%.\nAs expected, Amazon will incur fewer costs this year related to coronavirus safety measures. Operating income is forecast to be between $4.5 billion and $8 billion in the second quarter, assuming $1.5 billion of costs related to Covid-19. That’s in line with what Amazon executives predicted last quarter.\nAmazonsaidWednesday it would spend more than $1 billion on raising wages for over half a million of its U.S. operations workers. On a call with reporters, Olsavsky said it decided to move up the pay increase from the fall to this spring as volumes remain just as strong as they were at the beginning of the pandemic.\nOlsavsky declined to comment on Amazon’s CEO transition plans, which will come into play once Bezossteps down in the third quarter. 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He cautions that overall revenue growth will be a key driver of stock performance, and that the shares could be range-bound until moving past what he warns will be a tough June quarter comparison. But for the long haul, he’s all in.</p><p><blockquote>Thill维持亚马逊股票的买入评级，目前目标价为4,000美元，他指出，该股自去年8月以来一直处于中性，但认为当市场明确核心零售业务的方向时，该股将再次跑赢大盘。他警告说，整体收入增长将是股票表现的关键驱动因素，在超过他警告的六月季度比较之前，股价可能会区间波动。但从长远来看，他全力以赴。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst asserts that&nbsp;Amazon Web Services&nbsp;is the company’s most valuable business, and one that is well-positioned for further strong growth. He thinks AWS could be worth $1.2 trillion in three years, as more corporate computing workloads shift to the cloud. (<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;notes there are only four companies with market caps higher than that: Amazon itself, Apple,Microsoft&nbsp;and Alphabet.)</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师断言，亚马逊网络服务是该公司最有价值的业务，并且处于进一步强劲增长的有利位置。他认为，随着越来越多的企业计算工作负载转移到云端，AWS的价值可能在三年内达到1.2万亿美元。（<i>巴伦周刊</i>请注意，只有四家公司的市值高于此：亚马逊本身、苹果、微软和Alphabet。）</blockquote></p><p> In a finding that could surprise some investors, Thill thinksthe company’s advertising businesscould be worth more than $600 billion in three years. “As Amazon becomes an increasingly important channel for [consumer-packaged goods] companies, we believe a portion of their spending will shift toward search and product placement,” he writes. “In addition, we think Amazon has the opportunity to expand advertising further in international and new channels like Prime Video.”</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔认为，该公司的广告业务在三年内价值可能会超过6000亿美元，这一发现可能会让一些投资者感到惊讶。“随着亚马逊成为[消费品]公司越来越重要的渠道，我们相信他们的部分支出将转向搜索和产品植入，”他写道。“此外，我们认为亚马逊有机会在国际和Prime Video等新渠道进一步扩大广告。”</blockquote></p><p> As for the core retail business, the analyst estimates the value three years out at $1 trillion, about $700 billion of that for the third-party seller business. “[Amazon]Primeadoption and a broader shift to e-commerce have driven an acceleration in growth,” he writes. “We believe the length of the pandemic has served to engrain consumers’ increased reliance on e-commerce.”</p><p><blockquote>至于核心零售业务，分析师估计三年后的价值为1万亿美元，其中第三方卖家业务约为7000亿美元。“[亚马逊]Prime的采用和向电子商务的更广泛转变推动了增长的加速，”他写道。“我们认为，大流行的持续时间加深了消费者对电子商务的依赖。”</blockquote></p><p> Thill is careful to say that his sum-of-the-parts analysis is simply illustrative and doesn’t reflect his official price target. But he adds that viewing Amazon over a longer time period “helps provide perspective in the face of near-term disruptions/volatility from the pandemic.” He also thinks Amazon’s discount to its underlying asset value can narrow over time. And Thill points out that he is not including any value for its new healthcare business, which he notes is addressing a $350 billion U.S. market.</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔谨慎地表示，他的部分总和分析只是说明性的，并不反映他的官方价格目标。但他补充说，从更长的时间来看亚马逊“有助于在面对大流行造成的近期干扰/波动时提供视角。”他还认为，随着时间的推移，亚马逊相对于其基础资产价值的折扣可能会缩小。蒂尔指出，他没有包括其新医疗保健业务的任何价值，他指出该业务面向3500亿美元的美国市场。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon closed Tuesday at $3400, up 0.6%.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊周二收于3400美元，上涨0.6%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Could Be Worth $3 Trillion in Three Years, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称亚马逊三年内市值可能达到3万亿美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Could Be Worth $3 Trillion in Three Years, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称亚马逊三年内市值可能达到3万亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-14 15:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amazon is going to get bigger—maybe a lot bigger.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊将会变得更大——也许会大很多。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note on Tuesday, Jefferies analyst Brent Thill lays out a case that Amazon (Ticker: AMZN) can reach $5,700 a share over the next three years, a potential 70% gain that would boost the company’s valuation to nearly $3 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师布伦特·蒂尔(Brent Thill)在周二的一份研究报告中提出，亚马逊（股票代码：AMZN）的股价在未来三年内可能达到每股5,700美元，潜在涨幅为70%，这将使该公司的估值达到近3万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Thill, who maintains a Buy rating on Amazon shares with a current price target of $4,000, notes that the stock has been stuck in neutral since last August, but thinks the stock will outperform again when the market gets clarity on the direction of the core retail business. He cautions that overall revenue growth will be a key driver of stock performance, and that the shares could be range-bound until moving past what he warns will be a tough June quarter comparison. But for the long haul, he’s all in.</p><p><blockquote>Thill维持亚马逊股票的买入评级，目前目标价为4,000美元，他指出，该股自去年8月以来一直处于中性，但认为当市场明确核心零售业务的方向时，该股将再次跑赢大盘。他警告说，整体收入增长将是股票表现的关键驱动因素，在超过他警告的六月季度比较之前，股价可能会区间波动。但从长远来看，他全力以赴。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst asserts that&nbsp;Amazon Web Services&nbsp;is the company’s most valuable business, and one that is well-positioned for further strong growth. He thinks AWS could be worth $1.2 trillion in three years, as more corporate computing workloads shift to the cloud. (<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;notes there are only four companies with market caps higher than that: Amazon itself, Apple,Microsoft&nbsp;and Alphabet.)</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师断言，亚马逊网络服务是该公司最有价值的业务，并且处于进一步强劲增长的有利位置。他认为，随着越来越多的企业计算工作负载转移到云端，AWS的价值可能在三年内达到1.2万亿美元。（<i>巴伦周刊</i>请注意，只有四家公司的市值高于此：亚马逊本身、苹果、微软和Alphabet。）</blockquote></p><p> In a finding that could surprise some investors, Thill thinksthe company’s advertising businesscould be worth more than $600 billion in three years. “As Amazon becomes an increasingly important channel for [consumer-packaged goods] companies, we believe a portion of their spending will shift toward search and product placement,” he writes. “In addition, we think Amazon has the opportunity to expand advertising further in international and new channels like Prime Video.”</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔认为，该公司的广告业务在三年内价值可能会超过6000亿美元，这一发现可能会让一些投资者感到惊讶。“随着亚马逊成为[消费品]公司越来越重要的渠道，我们相信他们的部分支出将转向搜索和产品植入，”他写道。“此外，我们认为亚马逊有机会在国际和Prime Video等新渠道进一步扩大广告。”</blockquote></p><p> As for the core retail business, the analyst estimates the value three years out at $1 trillion, about $700 billion of that for the third-party seller business. “[Amazon]Primeadoption and a broader shift to e-commerce have driven an acceleration in growth,” he writes. “We believe the length of the pandemic has served to engrain consumers’ increased reliance on e-commerce.”</p><p><blockquote>至于核心零售业务，分析师估计三年后的价值为1万亿美元，其中第三方卖家业务约为7000亿美元。“[亚马逊]Prime的采用和向电子商务的更广泛转变推动了增长的加速，”他写道。“我们认为，大流行的持续时间加深了消费者对电子商务的依赖。”</blockquote></p><p> Thill is careful to say that his sum-of-the-parts analysis is simply illustrative and doesn’t reflect his official price target. But he adds that viewing Amazon over a longer time period “helps provide perspective in the face of near-term disruptions/volatility from the pandemic.” He also thinks Amazon’s discount to its underlying asset value can narrow over time. And Thill points out that he is not including any value for its new healthcare business, which he notes is addressing a $350 billion U.S. market.</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔谨慎地表示，他的部分总和分析只是说明性的，并不反映他的官方价格目标。但他补充说，从更长的时间来看亚马逊“有助于在面对大流行造成的近期干扰/波动时提供视角。”他还认为，随着时间的推移，亚马逊相对于其基础资产价值的折扣可能会缩小。蒂尔指出，他没有包括其新医疗保健业务的任何价值，他指出该业务面向3500亿美元的美国市场。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon closed Tuesday at $3400, up 0.6%.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊周二收于3400美元，上涨0.6%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-could-be-worth-3-trillion-in-three-years-analyst-says-51618348040?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-could-be-worth-3-trillion-in-three-years-analyst-says-51618348040?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109659124","content_text":"Amazon is going to get bigger—maybe a lot bigger.\nIn a research note on Tuesday, Jefferies analyst Brent Thill lays out a case that Amazon (Ticker: AMZN) can reach $5,700 a share over the next three years, a potential 70% gain that would boost the company’s valuation to nearly $3 trillion.\nThill, who maintains a Buy rating on Amazon shares with a current price target of $4,000, notes that the stock has been stuck in neutral since last August, but thinks the stock will outperform again when the market gets clarity on the direction of the core retail business. He cautions that overall revenue growth will be a key driver of stock performance, and that the shares could be range-bound until moving past what he warns will be a tough June quarter comparison. But for the long haul, he’s all in.\nThe analyst asserts that Amazon Web Services is the company’s most valuable business, and one that is well-positioned for further strong growth. He thinks AWS could be worth $1.2 trillion in three years, as more corporate computing workloads shift to the cloud. (Barron’s notes there are only four companies with market caps higher than that: Amazon itself, Apple,Microsoft and Alphabet.)\nIn a finding that could surprise some investors, Thill thinksthe company’s advertising businesscould be worth more than $600 billion in three years. “As Amazon becomes an increasingly important channel for [consumer-packaged goods] companies, we believe a portion of their spending will shift toward search and product placement,” he writes. “In addition, we think Amazon has the opportunity to expand advertising further in international and new channels like Prime Video.”\nAs for the core retail business, the analyst estimates the value three years out at $1 trillion, about $700 billion of that for the third-party seller business. “[Amazon]Primeadoption and a broader shift to e-commerce have driven an acceleration in growth,” he writes. “We believe the length of the pandemic has served to engrain consumers’ increased reliance on e-commerce.”\nThill is careful to say that his sum-of-the-parts analysis is simply illustrative and doesn’t reflect his official price target. But he adds that viewing Amazon over a longer time period “helps provide perspective in the face of near-term disruptions/volatility from the pandemic.” He also thinks Amazon’s discount to its underlying asset value can narrow over time. And Thill points out that he is not including any value for its new healthcare business, which he notes is addressing a $350 billion U.S. market.\nAmazon closed Tuesday at $3400, up 0.6%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340547832,"gmtCreate":1617440377426,"gmtModify":1634520940163,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570925230110099","idStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read later","listText":"Read later","text":"Read later","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340547832","repostId":"1153520775","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153520775","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1617348406,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153520775?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 15:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba's Stock Is Entering Make It Or Break It Time<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的股票正进入成败时刻</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153520775","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.(NYSE:BABA) shares were trending Thursday. The stock looks to be nearing t","content":"<p><b>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</b>(NYSE:BABA) shares were trending Thursday. The stock looks to be nearing the support level and looking to test it soon. Below is a technical analysis on the chart.</p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司。</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）股价周四走势。该股看起来接近支撑位，并希望很快测试它。下面是图表上的技术分析。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba closed down 1.05% at $224.36.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW收跌1.05%，报224.36美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4422b75469a63ae122dd3d79828e52ae\" tg-width=\"1322\" tg-height=\"728\"><b>Alibaba Daily Chart Analysis:</b>Alibaba looks to be forming what technical traders may call a “descending triangle” pattern.</p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW日线图分析：</b>阿里巴巴-SW看起来正在形成技术交易者可能看涨期权的“下降三角形”形态。</blockquote></p><p> Connecting the highs of the chart together with a line shows that the highs are getting lower observable by the negative slope of the line.</p><p><blockquote>用一条线将图表的高点连接在一起，表明高点越来越低，可以通过线的负斜率观察到。</blockquote></p><p> These highs are condensing the price between a flat bottom near $220. The stock has found support near the $220 level multiple times in the past and may again in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这些高点将价格压缩在220美元附近的平底之间。该股过去曾多次在220美元附近找到支撑，未来可能会再次找到支撑。</blockquote></p><p> The stock is&nbsp;trading below the 200-day moving average (blue), possibly indicating sentiment in the stock is bearish. This indicator may hold as a resistance level sometime in the future.</p><p><blockquote>该股交易价格低于200日移动平均线（蓝色），可能表明该股情绪看跌。该指标可能在未来某个时候保持阻力位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What’s Next:</b>Bullish technical traders would like to see the stock bounce near the $220 level. Following a bounce, bullish traders would like to see the stock cross above the line that connects the highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>下一步是什么：</b>看涨的技术交易者希望看到该股反弹至220美元附近。反弹后，看涨交易者希望看到股票突破连接高点的线。</blockquote></p><p> If the stock were to be able to cross above the line that connects the highs, it may indicate&nbsp;the trend&nbsp;is changing from bearish to bullish.</p><p><blockquote>如果该股能够突破连接高点的线，则可能表明趋势正在从看跌转变为看涨。</blockquote></p><p> Bearish traders would like to continue to see the stock hover near the $220 area. If the stock is able to fall below this level and have a period of consolidation, it may see a stronger push downwards in the future.</p><p><blockquote>看跌交易者希望继续看到该股徘徊在220美元区域附近。如果该股能够跌破这一水平并经历一段时间的盘整，未来可能会出现更强的下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> The stock pushing below the $220 support level may confirm the bearish descending triangle pattern. Although the term bearish is in the name of the pattern, it may not act accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>该股跌破220美元支撑位可能会确认看跌下降三角形形态。尽管该模式的名称中有“看跌”一词，但它可能不会相应地发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba's Stock Is Entering Make It Or Break It Time<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的股票正进入成败时刻</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba's Stock Is Entering Make It Or Break It Time<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的股票正进入成败时刻</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-02 15:26</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</b>(NYSE:BABA) shares were trending Thursday. The stock looks to be nearing the support level and looking to test it soon. Below is a technical analysis on the chart.</p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司。</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）股价周四走势。该股看起来接近支撑位，并希望很快测试它。下面是图表上的技术分析。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba closed down 1.05% at $224.36.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW收跌1.05%，报224.36美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4422b75469a63ae122dd3d79828e52ae\" tg-width=\"1322\" tg-height=\"728\"><b>Alibaba Daily Chart Analysis:</b>Alibaba looks to be forming what technical traders may call a “descending triangle” pattern.</p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW日线图分析：</b>阿里巴巴-SW看起来正在形成技术交易者可能看涨期权的“下降三角形”形态。</blockquote></p><p> Connecting the highs of the chart together with a line shows that the highs are getting lower observable by the negative slope of the line.</p><p><blockquote>用一条线将图表的高点连接在一起，表明高点越来越低，可以通过线的负斜率观察到。</blockquote></p><p> These highs are condensing the price between a flat bottom near $220. The stock has found support near the $220 level multiple times in the past and may again in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这些高点将价格压缩在220美元附近的平底之间。该股过去曾多次在220美元附近找到支撑，未来可能会再次找到支撑。</blockquote></p><p> The stock is&nbsp;trading below the 200-day moving average (blue), possibly indicating sentiment in the stock is bearish. This indicator may hold as a resistance level sometime in the future.</p><p><blockquote>该股交易价格低于200日移动平均线（蓝色），可能表明该股情绪看跌。该指标可能在未来某个时候保持阻力位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What’s Next:</b>Bullish technical traders would like to see the stock bounce near the $220 level. Following a bounce, bullish traders would like to see the stock cross above the line that connects the highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>下一步是什么：</b>看涨的技术交易者希望看到该股反弹至220美元附近。反弹后，看涨交易者希望看到股票突破连接高点的线。</blockquote></p><p> If the stock were to be able to cross above the line that connects the highs, it may indicate&nbsp;the trend&nbsp;is changing from bearish to bullish.</p><p><blockquote>如果该股能够突破连接高点的线，则可能表明趋势正在从看跌转变为看涨。</blockquote></p><p> Bearish traders would like to continue to see the stock hover near the $220 area. If the stock is able to fall below this level and have a period of consolidation, it may see a stronger push downwards in the future.</p><p><blockquote>看跌交易者希望继续看到该股徘徊在220美元区域附近。如果该股能够跌破这一水平并经历一段时间的盘整，未来可能会出现更强的下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> The stock pushing below the $220 support level may confirm the bearish descending triangle pattern. Although the term bearish is in the name of the pattern, it may not act accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>该股跌破220美元支撑位可能会确认看跌下降三角形形态。尽管该模式的名称中有“看跌”一词，但它可能不会相应地发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153520775","content_text":"Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.(NYSE:BABA) shares were trending Thursday. The stock looks to be nearing the support level and looking to test it soon. Below is a technical analysis on the chart.\nAlibaba closed down 1.05% at $224.36.\nAlibaba Daily Chart Analysis:Alibaba looks to be forming what technical traders may call a “descending triangle” pattern.\nConnecting the highs of the chart together with a line shows that the highs are getting lower observable by the negative slope of the line.\nThese highs are condensing the price between a flat bottom near $220. The stock has found support near the $220 level multiple times in the past and may again in the future.\nThe stock is trading below the 200-day moving average (blue), possibly indicating sentiment in the stock is bearish. This indicator may hold as a resistance level sometime in the future.\nWhat’s Next:Bullish technical traders would like to see the stock bounce near the $220 level. Following a bounce, bullish traders would like to see the stock cross above the line that connects the highs.\nIf the stock were to be able to cross above the line that connects the highs, it may indicate the trend is changing from bearish to bullish.\nBearish traders would like to continue to see the stock hover near the $220 area. If the stock is able to fall below this level and have a period of consolidation, it may see a stronger push downwards in the future.\nThe stock pushing below the $220 support level may confirm the bearish descending triangle pattern. Although the term bearish is in the name of the pattern, it may not act accordingly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800037464,"gmtCreate":1627265419158,"gmtModify":1633766724432,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570925230110099","idStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool] [Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800037464","repostId":"1100772026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159431868,"gmtCreate":1624976321954,"gmtModify":1633946283702,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570925230110099","idStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159431868","repostId":"1178728317","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178728317","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624973015,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178728317?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 21:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Stock: Get Ready For Earnings Season<blockquote>亚马逊股票：为财报季做好准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178728317","media":"TheStreet","summary":"The countdown to Amazon’s earnings day has begun. The Amazon Maven begins its preview by looking at ","content":"<p>The countdown to Amazon’s earnings day has begun. The Amazon Maven begins its preview by looking at analyst consensus and historical stock price behavior prior to and after the event.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊财报日已经进入倒计时。Amazon Maven通过查看分析师共识和事件前后的历史股价行为来开始预览。</blockquote></p><p> June is ending along with the second calendar quarter of 2021. Amazon stock(<b>AMZN</b>)&nbsp;is staring at a couple of potential catalysts in July, with earnings season being the most obvious of them.</p><p><blockquote>6月和2021年第二季度一起结束。亚马逊股票(<b>AMZN</b>）正在关注7月份的几个潜在催化剂，其中财报季是其中最明显的。</blockquote></p><p> The Amazon Maven will cover the cloud and e-commerce giant’s earnings event in detail via live blog – dates are yet to be announced by Amazon. In the meantime, our channel will preview second quarter earnings in the next few weeks, starting with a high-level view of consensus expectations.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊Maven将通过实时博客详细报道这家云和电子商务巨头的财报活动——亚马逊尚未宣布日期。与此同时，我们的频道将在未来几周内预览第二季度收益，首先是对共识预期的高层看法。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1be54c5dedec1015d3b333406eaa9cb\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"858\"><span>Figure 1; Amazon's HQ in Seattle, WA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1；亚马逊总部位于华盛顿州西雅图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What Wall Street expects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街的期望</b></blockquote></p><p> For second quarter 2021, it helps to think first about last year’s numbers. As the COVID-19 crisis was still in its early stages, Amazon&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;astounding revenue growth of 40% in second quarter of 2020, the highest since 2018. EPS of over $10 beat consensus by the widest margin ever.</p><p><blockquote>对于2021年第二季度，首先考虑去年的数字会有所帮助。由于COVID-19危机仍处于早期阶段，亚马逊在2020年第二季度实现了40%的惊人收入增长，为2018年以来的最高水平。每股收益超过10美元，以有史以来最大的幅度超出了市场预期。</blockquote></p><p> When most businesses suffered due to the shutdown of the global economies, Amazon benefited in second quarter 2020 from the trends in digital consumption and cloud adoption acceleration. This year, the Seattle-based company will be facing an uphill battle to produce top- and bottom-line growth.</p><p><blockquote>当大多数企业因全球经济关闭而遭受损失时，亚马逊在2020年第二季度受益于数字消费和云采用加速的趋势。今年，这家总部位于西雅图的公司将面临一场实现营收和利润增长的艰苦战斗。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Wall Street is betting on revenue increase of nearly 30% this time – see table below. On earnings per share, $12.22 would represent an increase of nearly 20%. The earnings consensus climbed by over one dollar since two months ago, probably in anticipation for&nbsp;another successful Amazon Prime Day event.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，华尔街仍押注这次收入将增长近30%——见下表。每股收益为12.22美元，将增长近20%。自两个月前以来，盈利共识攀升了1美元以上，可能是因为预期亚马逊Prime Day活动将再次取得成功。</blockquote></p><p> In the next few weeks, the Amazon Maven will dig deeper into what are likely to be the most hotly debated topics of conversation on earnings day.</p><p><blockquote>在接下来的几周内，亚马逊专家将更深入地挖掘财报日最热门的话题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/040bd5f518765adf07c85cd4a5955392\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"424\"><span>Figure 2: AMZN's earnings and revenues estimates.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AMZN的盈利和收入预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon stock around earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊股票围绕盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> Next, let’s look at the performance of Amazon stock around earnings dates to figure out whether it might make sense to buy AMZN ahead of it. The graph below shows three bars: the median two-week return of Amazon stock (1) before earnings, (2) after earnings, and (3) on any given day.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，让我们看看亚马逊股票在财报日期前后的表现，以确定在财报日期之前购买亚马逊是否有意义。下图显示了三个条形图：亚马逊股票的两周回报率中位数(1)财报前、(2)财报后以及(3)任何一天。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past 20 earnings seasons, Amazon share price increased by a median 2.6% prior to the event – much better than the 0.1% following earnings day. The consistency is also worth noting: the stock produced positive two-week returns<i>ahead</i>of earnings 80% of the time vs. only half the time<i>after</i>earnings.</p><p><blockquote>在过去20个财报季中，亚马逊股价在活动前上涨了2.6%，远好于财报日后的0.1%。一致性也值得注意：该股两周产生正回报<i>提前</i>80%的时间盈利，而只有一半的时间盈利<i>之后</i>收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e360e6fb7b2688f235851e032bd4615a\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"411\"><span>Figure 3: Median 2-week returns, earnings vs. non-earnings.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：两周回报率中位数，盈利与非盈利。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The data seems consistent with the idea of “buying the rumor, selling the news”. In other words, it is plausible that demand for AMZN shares rises ahead of the quarterly report, which has often exceeded analysts’ expectations. Once the numbers are in, investors proceed to lock in gains.</p><p><blockquote>数据似乎与“买谣言，卖消息”的思路一致。换句话说，对亚马逊股票的需求在季度报告发布之前上升是合理的，这往往超出了分析师的预期。一旦数据出来，投资者就会开始锁定收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Stock: Get Ready For Earnings Season<blockquote>亚马逊股票：为财报季做好准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Stock: Get Ready For Earnings Season<blockquote>亚马逊股票：为财报季做好准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 21:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The countdown to Amazon’s earnings day has begun. The Amazon Maven begins its preview by looking at analyst consensus and historical stock price behavior prior to and after the event.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊财报日已经进入倒计时。Amazon Maven通过查看分析师共识和事件前后的历史股价行为来开始预览。</blockquote></p><p> June is ending along with the second calendar quarter of 2021. Amazon stock(<b>AMZN</b>)&nbsp;is staring at a couple of potential catalysts in July, with earnings season being the most obvious of them.</p><p><blockquote>6月和2021年第二季度一起结束。亚马逊股票(<b>AMZN</b>）正在关注7月份的几个潜在催化剂，其中财报季是其中最明显的。</blockquote></p><p> The Amazon Maven will cover the cloud and e-commerce giant’s earnings event in detail via live blog – dates are yet to be announced by Amazon. In the meantime, our channel will preview second quarter earnings in the next few weeks, starting with a high-level view of consensus expectations.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊Maven将通过实时博客详细报道这家云和电子商务巨头的财报活动——亚马逊尚未宣布日期。与此同时，我们的频道将在未来几周内预览第二季度收益，首先是对共识预期的高层看法。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1be54c5dedec1015d3b333406eaa9cb\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"858\"><span>Figure 1; Amazon's HQ in Seattle, WA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1；亚马逊总部位于华盛顿州西雅图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What Wall Street expects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街的期望</b></blockquote></p><p> For second quarter 2021, it helps to think first about last year’s numbers. As the COVID-19 crisis was still in its early stages, Amazon&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;astounding revenue growth of 40% in second quarter of 2020, the highest since 2018. EPS of over $10 beat consensus by the widest margin ever.</p><p><blockquote>对于2021年第二季度，首先考虑去年的数字会有所帮助。由于COVID-19危机仍处于早期阶段，亚马逊在2020年第二季度实现了40%的惊人收入增长，为2018年以来的最高水平。每股收益超过10美元，以有史以来最大的幅度超出了市场预期。</blockquote></p><p> When most businesses suffered due to the shutdown of the global economies, Amazon benefited in second quarter 2020 from the trends in digital consumption and cloud adoption acceleration. This year, the Seattle-based company will be facing an uphill battle to produce top- and bottom-line growth.</p><p><blockquote>当大多数企业因全球经济关闭而遭受损失时，亚马逊在2020年第二季度受益于数字消费和云采用加速的趋势。今年，这家总部位于西雅图的公司将面临一场实现营收和利润增长的艰苦战斗。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Wall Street is betting on revenue increase of nearly 30% this time – see table below. On earnings per share, $12.22 would represent an increase of nearly 20%. The earnings consensus climbed by over one dollar since two months ago, probably in anticipation for&nbsp;another successful Amazon Prime Day event.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，华尔街仍押注这次收入将增长近30%——见下表。每股收益为12.22美元，将增长近20%。自两个月前以来，盈利共识攀升了1美元以上，可能是因为预期亚马逊Prime Day活动将再次取得成功。</blockquote></p><p> In the next few weeks, the Amazon Maven will dig deeper into what are likely to be the most hotly debated topics of conversation on earnings day.</p><p><blockquote>在接下来的几周内，亚马逊专家将更深入地挖掘财报日最热门的话题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/040bd5f518765adf07c85cd4a5955392\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"424\"><span>Figure 2: AMZN's earnings and revenues estimates.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AMZN的盈利和收入预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon stock around earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊股票围绕盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> Next, let’s look at the performance of Amazon stock around earnings dates to figure out whether it might make sense to buy AMZN ahead of it. The graph below shows three bars: the median two-week return of Amazon stock (1) before earnings, (2) after earnings, and (3) on any given day.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，让我们看看亚马逊股票在财报日期前后的表现，以确定在财报日期之前购买亚马逊是否有意义。下图显示了三个条形图：亚马逊股票的两周回报率中位数(1)财报前、(2)财报后以及(3)任何一天。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past 20 earnings seasons, Amazon share price increased by a median 2.6% prior to the event – much better than the 0.1% following earnings day. The consistency is also worth noting: the stock produced positive two-week returns<i>ahead</i>of earnings 80% of the time vs. only half the time<i>after</i>earnings.</p><p><blockquote>在过去20个财报季中，亚马逊股价在活动前上涨了2.6%，远好于财报日后的0.1%。一致性也值得注意：该股两周产生正回报<i>提前</i>80%的时间盈利，而只有一半的时间盈利<i>之后</i>收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e360e6fb7b2688f235851e032bd4615a\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"411\"><span>Figure 3: Median 2-week returns, earnings vs. non-earnings.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：两周回报率中位数，盈利与非盈利。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The data seems consistent with the idea of “buying the rumor, selling the news”. In other words, it is plausible that demand for AMZN shares rises ahead of the quarterly report, which has often exceeded analysts’ expectations. Once the numbers are in, investors proceed to lock in gains.</p><p><blockquote>数据似乎与“买谣言，卖消息”的思路一致。换句话说，对亚马逊股票的需求在季度报告发布之前上升是合理的，这往往超出了分析师的预期。一旦数据出来，投资者就会开始锁定收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/news/amazon-stock-get-ready-for-earnings-season\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/news/amazon-stock-get-ready-for-earnings-season","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178728317","content_text":"The countdown to Amazon’s earnings day has begun. The Amazon Maven begins its preview by looking at analyst consensus and historical stock price behavior prior to and after the event.\nJune is ending along with the second calendar quarter of 2021. Amazon stock(AMZN) is staring at a couple of potential catalysts in July, with earnings season being the most obvious of them.\nThe Amazon Maven will cover the cloud and e-commerce giant’s earnings event in detail via live blog – dates are yet to be announced by Amazon. In the meantime, our channel will preview second quarter earnings in the next few weeks, starting with a high-level view of consensus expectations.\nFigure 1; Amazon's HQ in Seattle, WA.\nWhat Wall Street expects\nFor second quarter 2021, it helps to think first about last year’s numbers. As the COVID-19 crisis was still in its early stages, Amazon delivered astounding revenue growth of 40% in second quarter of 2020, the highest since 2018. EPS of over $10 beat consensus by the widest margin ever.\nWhen most businesses suffered due to the shutdown of the global economies, Amazon benefited in second quarter 2020 from the trends in digital consumption and cloud adoption acceleration. This year, the Seattle-based company will be facing an uphill battle to produce top- and bottom-line growth.\nStill, Wall Street is betting on revenue increase of nearly 30% this time – see table below. On earnings per share, $12.22 would represent an increase of nearly 20%. The earnings consensus climbed by over one dollar since two months ago, probably in anticipation for another successful Amazon Prime Day event.\nIn the next few weeks, the Amazon Maven will dig deeper into what are likely to be the most hotly debated topics of conversation on earnings day.\nFigure 2: AMZN's earnings and revenues estimates.\nAmazon stock around earnings\nNext, let’s look at the performance of Amazon stock around earnings dates to figure out whether it might make sense to buy AMZN ahead of it. The graph below shows three bars: the median two-week return of Amazon stock (1) before earnings, (2) after earnings, and (3) on any given day.\nOver the past 20 earnings seasons, Amazon share price increased by a median 2.6% prior to the event – much better than the 0.1% following earnings day. The consistency is also worth noting: the stock produced positive two-week returnsaheadof earnings 80% of the time vs. only half the timeafterearnings.\nFigure 3: Median 2-week returns, earnings vs. non-earnings.\nThe data seems consistent with the idea of “buying the rumor, selling the news”. In other words, it is plausible that demand for AMZN shares rises ahead of the quarterly report, which has often exceeded analysts’ expectations. Once the numbers are in, investors proceed to lock in gains.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124520219,"gmtCreate":1624773664231,"gmtModify":1633948740329,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570925230110099","idStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for a good price to enter","listText":"Waiting for a good price to enter","text":"Waiting for a good price to enter","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124520219","repostId":"1184001921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184001921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624763737,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184001921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184001921","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新力的公司之一，在电子商务行业和云计算服务领域处于领先地位。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股是一致的。</li><li>本文探讨了亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>今天，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）的定价似乎有点过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果(AAPL)或微软(MSFT)等其他热门股票。嗯，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将详细介绍我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的理由，以帮助您在未来进行更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一些重要的事情——我不是亚马逊专家，我很难评估成长型股票。我真的很怀疑我有能力估计一家公司未来的增长。我通过查看过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来做出未来的增长估计。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法近乎“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推并不好，因为未来与过去不同——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格可以很好地获得大致正确的估值。我总是尽量把我的估值定低，因为低买大赚总比高买亏好。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全边际</b>意思是买打折的东西....这就是伟大投资的全部秘密。规则1投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际进行购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持它的干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的钱从哪里来？亚马逊分为3个部分：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为两个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来可能会继续实现高增长。在本节中，我研究了亚马逊每个部门过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此做出保守的未来预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个部门的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是亚马逊北美业务的概况。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美的收入必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内将收入从2000亿美元增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常令人难以置信的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊国际部门的概况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入将增长20%，营业利润率也将提高。我认为营业利润率将逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊在美国市场类似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，AWS是：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计AWS细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预测25-30%的年收入增长率，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，云计算行业应该以17.5%的CAGR增长，直到2025年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为28%，因为AWS业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够通过将成本分摊给更多的人来获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率可能会超过28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测加在一起有助于我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行了股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购最多50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>资料来源：2020 10-K第60页，<i>增加了强调</i>但就我们而言，这段报价表明亚马逊在过去3年中没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲钱。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约260亿美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可以看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了7.7%的贴现率，因为这是我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本(WACC)。我假设股权成本为8%，而亚马逊在过去10年中的平均税率约为20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我今天用DCF模型找到了亚马逊的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部2个红框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到2025年，亚马逊的收入将超过8500亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据估计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约550B美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为3900亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很可能成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到有一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司收入中有多少将成为业务利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石盒子中，我应用了贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估。该模型预测该股票可能被高估约15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来5年的年回报率约为5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我并不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在当前价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我提出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价格”。这背后的想法是，AMZN股票越便宜，我们可以预期的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股2,200美元的年回报率约为15%，每股1,700美元的年回报率约为22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但当股票交易价格接近3,500美元时，将买入价格定为2,000美元似乎不合理吗？”有一点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能暴跌至2,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1,900美元（我希望当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估，因为它似乎在未来5年内提供约5%的年回报率。这并不意味着如果您是长期持有者，您应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者表现出色。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果你正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果您关注亚马逊已经有一段时间了，并且正在寻求进入，那么现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资该股票，我们仍然可以看到亚马逊成为世界上收入最多的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢您的阅读，我希望您今天休息得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新力的公司之一，在电子商务行业和云计算服务领域处于领先地位。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股是一致的。</li><li>本文探讨了亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>今天，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）的定价似乎有点过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果(AAPL)或微软(MSFT)等其他热门股票。嗯，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将详细介绍我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的理由，以帮助您在未来进行更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一些重要的事情——我不是亚马逊专家，我很难评估成长型股票。我真的很怀疑我有能力估计一家公司未来的增长。我通过查看过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来做出未来的增长估计。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法近乎“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推并不好，因为未来与过去不同——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格可以很好地获得大致正确的估值。我总是尽量把我的估值定低，因为低买大赚总比高买亏好。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全边际</b>意思是买打折的东西....这就是伟大投资的全部秘密。规则1投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际进行购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持它的干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的钱从哪里来？亚马逊分为3个部分：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为两个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来可能会继续实现高增长。在本节中，我研究了亚马逊每个部门过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此做出保守的未来预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个部门的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是亚马逊北美业务的概况。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美的收入必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内将收入从2000亿美元增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常令人难以置信的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊国际部门的概况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入将增长20%，营业利润率也将提高。我认为营业利润率将逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊在美国市场类似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，AWS是：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计AWS细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预测25-30%的年收入增长率，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，云计算行业应该以17.5%的CAGR增长，直到2025年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为28%，因为AWS业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够通过将成本分摊给更多的人来获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率可能会超过28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测加在一起有助于我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行了股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购最多50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>资料来源：2020 10-K第60页，<i>增加了强调</i>但就我们而言，这段报价表明亚马逊在过去3年中没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲钱。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约260亿美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可以看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了7.7%的贴现率，因为这是我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本(WACC)。我假设股权成本为8%，而亚马逊在过去10年中的平均税率约为20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我今天用DCF模型找到了亚马逊的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部2个红框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到2025年，亚马逊的收入将超过8500亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据估计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约550B美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为3900亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很可能成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到有一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司收入中有多少将成为业务利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石盒子中，我应用了贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估。该模型预测该股票可能被高估约15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来5年的年回报率约为5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我并不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在当前价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我提出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价格”。这背后的想法是，AMZN股票越便宜，我们可以预期的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股2,200美元的年回报率约为15%，每股1,700美元的年回报率约为22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但当股票交易价格接近3,500美元时，将买入价格定为2,000美元似乎不合理吗？”有一点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能暴跌至2,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1,900美元（我希望当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估，因为它似乎在未来5年内提供约5%的年回报率。这并不意味着如果您是长期持有者，您应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者表现出色。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果你正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果您关注亚马逊已经有一段时间了，并且正在寻求进入，那么现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资该股票，我们仍然可以看到亚马逊成为世界上收入最多的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢您的阅读，我希望您今天休息得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184001921","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.\nThis article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.\nI hope you enjoy.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nToday, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.\nSource: Author\nYou might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.\nIn this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.\nSomething important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.\nThis method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.\nBut after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.\n\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n margin of safety.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n\n\n Rule 1 Investing\n\nThis model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.\nBusiness Model\nWhere does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.\nAs a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.\nAnd later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nI projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.\nHopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.\nHere's a look at Amazon's International segment:\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nFor Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.\nAnd for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:\nSource: Author\nAWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about 17.5% CAGR until 2025.\nAdditionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.\nThese projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.\nCapital Allocation\nHow does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.\nSource: Author\nThe biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.\n\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.\n\n\n Source:2020 10-K page 60,\n emphasis added\n\nBut for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.\nAmazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.\nAmazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.\nValuation\nFirst, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.\nSource: Author\nI used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.\nThis model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.\nRight now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.\nSource: Author\nDown at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.\nSource: Author\nToday, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.\nThese estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.\nDown at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.\nThe model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.\n\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.\nBut the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.\nRecap\nToday, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.\nBut if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.\nEven if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.\nThank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122836187,"gmtCreate":1624609754249,"gmtModify":1633950574993,"author":{"id":"3570925230110099","authorId":"3570925230110099","name":"Ddazes","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba801dfb90539ab362f1d1efe8729c7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570925230110099","idStr":"3570925230110099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool] [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122836187","repostId":"1136202921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136202921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624591759,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136202921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136202921","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan St","content":"<p><div> Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant. The Apple Analyst:Katy ...</p><p><blockquote><div>苹果公司（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）的股价今年迄今表现低迷，摩根士丹利的一位分析师认为这家科技巨头的股票存在长期买入机会。苹果分析师：凯蒂...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple's Stock Valuation Could Present Long-Term Buying Opportunity<blockquote>为什么苹果的股票估值可能带来长期买入机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant. The Apple Analyst:Katy ...</p><p><blockquote><div>苹果公司（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）的股价今年迄今表现低迷，摩根士丹利的一位分析师认为这家科技巨头的股票存在长期买入机会。苹果分析师：凯蒂...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/06/21707490/why-apples-stock-valuation-could-present-long-term-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136202921","content_text":"Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have shown muted performanceyear-to-date, and an analyst at Morgan Stanley sees long-term buying opportunity in the shares of the tech giant.\nThe Apple Analyst:Katy Huberty reiterated an Overweight rating on Apple with a $162 price target.\nThe Apple Takeaways:The incoming call volume on Apple shares is at a low amid investor concerns over a seasonally low period in the iPhone cycle,regulatory risk and difficult comps relative to the COVID-19-driven work-from-home and study-from-home demand, Huberty said in a note.\nAdditionally, investors fear a more evolutionary iPhone s-cycle will lead to extended iPhone replacement cycles, the analyst said.\nRevenues will likely decline in 2022, increasing the likelihood of negative estimate revisions, she said.\n\"We recognize these risks but have a more positive outlook,\" Huberty said.\nThe dominant bear case narrative now is the iPhone entering a more modest upgrade or \"s\" cycle — a period when iPhone revenue historically declined at a double-digit rate, the analyst said. She forecast a low risk of similar iPhone revenue decline next year.\nThis is due to the longer period of iPhone replacement cycle relative to the past, an expansion to Apple's trade-in, financing and installment offers and 5G adoption, which is still in its nascent stage, Huberty said.\n\"Taken together, these factors build confidence that the iPhone 13 cycle will not look like past s-cycles, which is reflected in our updated FY22 iPhone forecast of 231M units,\" the analyst said.\nThe June quarter will be stronger than originally expected, as iPhone and iPad builds are tracking ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimate, she said.\nHuberty raised her June quarter revenue and EPS estimates by 3%-5%.\nApple's catalyst path is more back-end loaded this year, the analyst said.\nThe company can drive low-teens annual revenue growth and high-teens annual EPS growth between fiscal years 2020 and 2023, she said.\n\"At24xFV/FCF, we believe the current valuation presents a good long-term buying opportunity.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}