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ShermanGoh

ShermanGoh

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2021-06-21

APPL

Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>

2021-06-19

great news

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2021-05-04

[Grin]

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2021-04-21

👍🏻

Why Square, PayPal Are Top Picks In The Fintech Space Ahead Of Earnings<blockquote>为什么Square和PayPal是财报发布前金融科技领域的首选</blockquote>

2021-03-26

trap?

Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green<blockquote>波音股价短期由红转绿</blockquote>

2021-03-26

👍🏻

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-08

👍

Individual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了——这对股市意味着什么</blockquote>

2021-02-04

Hmmm

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2021-02-04

Nice

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t":"APPL","listText":"APPL","text":"APPL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167347298","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165920776,"gmtCreate":1624088556295,"gmtModify":1634010803217,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571044813043268","authorIdStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"great news","listText":"great news","text":"great news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165920776","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1687,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106330467,"gmtCreate":1620087587859,"gmtModify":1634207970649,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571044813043268","authorIdStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Grin]&nbsp;","listText":"[Grin]&nbsp;","text":"[Grin]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106330467","repostId":"1194616315","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378851413,"gmtCreate":1619017305732,"gmtModify":1634289177426,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571044813043268","authorIdStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378851413","repostId":"1129560929","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1129560929","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1619015707,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129560929?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-21 22:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Square, PayPal Are Top Picks In The Fintech Space Ahead Of Earnings<blockquote>为什么Square和PayPal是财报发布前金融科技领域的首选</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129560929","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Ahead of earnings from payment processing companies, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities picked his ","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e388dd7b580a775abca2bb0500cc3a0\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"375\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ahead of earnings from payment processing companies, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities picked his five favorite names in the space.</p><p><blockquote>在支付处理公司公布财报之前，罗森布拉特证券(Rosenblatt Securities)的一位分析师挑选了该领域他最喜欢的五个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ratings:</b>Analyst Sean Horgan maintained a Buy rating on&nbsp;<b>PayPal Holdings, Inc.</b>&nbsp;and increased the price target from $320 to $350.</p><p><blockquote><b>评级：</b>分析师肖恩·霍根(Sean Horgan)维持买入评级<b>PayPal控股公司。</b>并将目标价从320美元上调至350美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst maintained the Buy rating and $320 price target for&nbsp;<b>Square Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote>分析师维持买入评级和320美元的目标价<b>广场公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> The analyst also maintained a Buy rating and $140 price target for&nbsp;<b>Fiserv&nbsp;Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师还维持买入评级和140美元的目标价<b>费瑟夫公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Horgan maintained&nbsp;<b>Global Payments Inc.</b>&nbsp;at Buy and nudged up the price target from $235 to $238.</p><p><blockquote>霍根维持<b>全球支付公司。</b>买入并将目标价从235美元上调至238美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst rated&nbsp;<b>Fidelity National Information Servics&nbsp;Inc</b>&nbsp;a Neutral and increased the price. target from $140 to $146.</p><p><blockquote>分析师评级<b>富达国家信息服务公司</b>中性并提高了价格。目标价从140美元到146美元。</blockquote></p><p> Horgan named Square and PayPal as his top picks in the run-up to the first-quarter earnings releases.</p><p><blockquote>霍根在第一季度财报发布前将Square和PayPal列为他的首选。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Theses:</b>Rosenblatt's positive view of payment processors is largely driven by their digital wallet offerings, Horgan said in the note.</p><p><blockquote><b>论文：</b>霍根在报告中表示，罗森布拉特对支付处理商的积极看法很大程度上是由其数字钱包产品推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Square's Cash App is continuing to leverage its valuable monetization playbook and PayPal is showing a renewed focus on Venmo using a similar strategy focusing&nbsp;on customer acquisition via new products such as&nbsp;crypto trading and&nbsp;credit card, the analyst noted.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，Square的Cash应用程序正在继续利用其有价值的货币化策略，PayPal正在重新关注Venmo，采用类似的策略，专注于通过加密货币交易和信用卡等新产品获取客户。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Square On Track to Beat User Estimate:</b>Square's&nbsp;Cash App&nbsp;is continuing to acquire customers at low customer acquisition cost and monetizing them quickly, Horgan said. The analyst expects first-quarter Cash App monthly average users to top the Street's 33.8 million estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>Square有望超出用户预期：</b>Horgan表示，Square的Cash应用程序正在继续以较低的获客成本获取客户，并快速将其货币化。该分析师预计，第一季度Cash App的月平均用户数将超过华尔街预期的3380万。</blockquote></p><p> Citing positive trends in U.S. retail sales, the analyst increased his gross payment volume estimate for the quarter and earnings per share estimate from 7 cents to 12 cents.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师援引美国零售销售的积极趋势，将本季度总支付量预期和每股收益预期从7美分上调至12美分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal to be Buoyed by Venmo, Product Launches:</b>Venmo is likely to top the $900 million revenue target for 2021, Horgan said.</p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal将受到Venmo的推动，推出产品：</b>Horgan表示，Venmo可能会超过2021年9亿美元的收入目标。</blockquote></p><p> \"Overall, we see upside risk driven by a laundry list of product launches in 2021 (i.e. Venmo crypto trading) that will positively impact PYPL's results and push shares higher,\" the analyst wrote in the note.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师在报告中写道：“总体而言，我们认为2021年推出的一系列产品（即Venmo加密货币交易）将带来上行风险，这将对PYPL的业绩产生积极影响并推高股价。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fiserv To Hit Guidance:</b>Fiserv is positioned well to benefit during the COVID-19 pandemic reopening, Horgan said. Given current recovery rates, the analyst expects the company to hit the high end of its guided 8-12% internal revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote><b>Fiserv将达到指引：</b>Horgan表示，Fiserv处于有利地位，可以在COVID-19大流行重新开放期间受益。鉴于目前的回收率，分析师预计该公司将达到8-12%国内收入增长指导值的上限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Payments Pursues Risk Neutral Strategy:</b>Global Payments is also a large beneficiary of the reopening, Rosenblatt said. The company's skew towards smaller sellers provides a positive decoupling of revenue growth from card network volume growth, it added.</p><p><blockquote><b>Global Payments奉行风险中性策略：</b>罗森布拉特表示，全球支付也是重新开放的一大受益者。它补充说，该公司对规模较小的卖家的倾斜使收入增长与卡网络销量增长实现了积极的脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Further, the firm sees&nbsp;<b>Amazon.com,&nbsp;Inc.'s</b>&nbsp;AWS&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Alphabet Inc.</b>&nbsp;Google partnerships as positive catalysts in the long-term.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司认为<b>亚马逊公司的</b>AWS和<b>Alphabet公司。</b>从长远来看，谷歌的合作伙伴关系是积极的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fidelity National Information Less Exposed to Reopening Tailwinds:</b>Fidelity National continues to be a name that&nbsp;is likely to be less exposed to tailwinds of the reopening, Horgan said.</p><p><blockquote><b>富达国家信息公司受重新开放顺风的影响较小：</b>霍根表示，富达国民仍然是一个不太可能受到重新开放的利好影响的名字。</blockquote></p><p> \"In our view, outperformance in the banking segment is the biggest upside risk (strong pipeline expected to come online throughout '21),\" the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师表示：“我们认为，银行业的优异表现是最大的上行风险（预计整个21年将有强大的管道上线）。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ab06f97db168ce3c05e434ff94f9b2\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"247\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Square, PayPal Are Top Picks In The Fintech Space Ahead Of Earnings<blockquote>为什么Square和PayPal是财报发布前金融科技领域的首选</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Square, PayPal Are Top Picks In The Fintech Space Ahead Of Earnings<blockquote>为什么Square和PayPal是财报发布前金融科技领域的首选</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-21 22:35</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e388dd7b580a775abca2bb0500cc3a0\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"375\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ahead of earnings from payment processing companies, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities picked his five favorite names in the space.</p><p><blockquote>在支付处理公司公布财报之前，罗森布拉特证券(Rosenblatt Securities)的一位分析师挑选了该领域他最喜欢的五个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ratings:</b>Analyst Sean Horgan maintained a Buy rating on&nbsp;<b>PayPal Holdings, Inc.</b>&nbsp;and increased the price target from $320 to $350.</p><p><blockquote><b>评级：</b>分析师肖恩·霍根(Sean Horgan)维持买入评级<b>PayPal控股公司。</b>并将目标价从320美元上调至350美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst maintained the Buy rating and $320 price target for&nbsp;<b>Square Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote>分析师维持买入评级和320美元的目标价<b>广场公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> The analyst also maintained a Buy rating and $140 price target for&nbsp;<b>Fiserv&nbsp;Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师还维持买入评级和140美元的目标价<b>费瑟夫公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Horgan maintained&nbsp;<b>Global Payments Inc.</b>&nbsp;at Buy and nudged up the price target from $235 to $238.</p><p><blockquote>霍根维持<b>全球支付公司。</b>买入并将目标价从235美元上调至238美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst rated&nbsp;<b>Fidelity National Information Servics&nbsp;Inc</b>&nbsp;a Neutral and increased the price. target from $140 to $146.</p><p><blockquote>分析师评级<b>富达国家信息服务公司</b>中性并提高了价格。目标价从140美元到146美元。</blockquote></p><p> Horgan named Square and PayPal as his top picks in the run-up to the first-quarter earnings releases.</p><p><blockquote>霍根在第一季度财报发布前将Square和PayPal列为他的首选。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Theses:</b>Rosenblatt's positive view of payment processors is largely driven by their digital wallet offerings, Horgan said in the note.</p><p><blockquote><b>论文：</b>霍根在报告中表示，罗森布拉特对支付处理商的积极看法很大程度上是由其数字钱包产品推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Square's Cash App is continuing to leverage its valuable monetization playbook and PayPal is showing a renewed focus on Venmo using a similar strategy focusing&nbsp;on customer acquisition via new products such as&nbsp;crypto trading and&nbsp;credit card, the analyst noted.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，Square的Cash应用程序正在继续利用其有价值的货币化策略，PayPal正在重新关注Venmo，采用类似的策略，专注于通过加密货币交易和信用卡等新产品获取客户。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Square On Track to Beat User Estimate:</b>Square's&nbsp;Cash App&nbsp;is continuing to acquire customers at low customer acquisition cost and monetizing them quickly, Horgan said. The analyst expects first-quarter Cash App monthly average users to top the Street's 33.8 million estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>Square有望超出用户预期：</b>Horgan表示，Square的Cash应用程序正在继续以较低的获客成本获取客户，并快速将其货币化。该分析师预计，第一季度Cash App的月平均用户数将超过华尔街预期的3380万。</blockquote></p><p> Citing positive trends in U.S. retail sales, the analyst increased his gross payment volume estimate for the quarter and earnings per share estimate from 7 cents to 12 cents.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师援引美国零售销售的积极趋势，将本季度总支付量预期和每股收益预期从7美分上调至12美分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal to be Buoyed by Venmo, Product Launches:</b>Venmo is likely to top the $900 million revenue target for 2021, Horgan said.</p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal将受到Venmo的推动，推出产品：</b>Horgan表示，Venmo可能会超过2021年9亿美元的收入目标。</blockquote></p><p> \"Overall, we see upside risk driven by a laundry list of product launches in 2021 (i.e. Venmo crypto trading) that will positively impact PYPL's results and push shares higher,\" the analyst wrote in the note.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师在报告中写道：“总体而言，我们认为2021年推出的一系列产品（即Venmo加密货币交易）将带来上行风险，这将对PYPL的业绩产生积极影响并推高股价。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fiserv To Hit Guidance:</b>Fiserv is positioned well to benefit during the COVID-19 pandemic reopening, Horgan said. Given current recovery rates, the analyst expects the company to hit the high end of its guided 8-12% internal revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote><b>Fiserv将达到指引：</b>Horgan表示，Fiserv处于有利地位，可以在COVID-19大流行重新开放期间受益。鉴于目前的回收率，分析师预计该公司将达到8-12%国内收入增长指导值的上限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Payments Pursues Risk Neutral Strategy:</b>Global Payments is also a large beneficiary of the reopening, Rosenblatt said. The company's skew towards smaller sellers provides a positive decoupling of revenue growth from card network volume growth, it added.</p><p><blockquote><b>Global Payments奉行风险中性策略：</b>罗森布拉特表示，全球支付也是重新开放的一大受益者。它补充说，该公司对规模较小的卖家的倾斜使收入增长与卡网络销量增长实现了积极的脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Further, the firm sees&nbsp;<b>Amazon.com,&nbsp;Inc.'s</b>&nbsp;AWS&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Alphabet Inc.</b>&nbsp;Google partnerships as positive catalysts in the long-term.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司认为<b>亚马逊公司的</b>AWS和<b>Alphabet公司。</b>从长远来看，谷歌的合作伙伴关系是积极的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fidelity National Information Less Exposed to Reopening Tailwinds:</b>Fidelity National continues to be a name that&nbsp;is likely to be less exposed to tailwinds of the reopening, Horgan said.</p><p><blockquote><b>富达国家信息公司受重新开放顺风的影响较小：</b>霍根表示，富达国民仍然是一个不太可能受到重新开放的利好影响的名字。</blockquote></p><p> \"In our view, outperformance in the banking segment is the biggest upside risk (strong pipeline expected to come online throughout '21),\" the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师表示：“我们认为，银行业的优异表现是最大的上行风险（预计整个21年将有强大的管道上线）。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ab06f97db168ce3c05e434ff94f9b2\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"247\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129560929","content_text":"Ahead of earnings from payment processing companies, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities picked his five favorite names in the space.\nThe Ratings:Analyst Sean Horgan maintained a Buy rating on PayPal Holdings, Inc. and increased the price target from $320 to $350.\nThe analyst maintained the Buy rating and $320 price target for Square Inc.\nThe analyst also maintained a Buy rating and $140 price target for Fiserv Inc.\nHorgan maintained Global Payments Inc. at Buy and nudged up the price target from $235 to $238.\nThe analyst rated Fidelity National Information Servics Inc a Neutral and increased the price. target from $140 to $146.\nHorgan named Square and PayPal as his top picks in the run-up to the first-quarter earnings releases.\nThe Theses:Rosenblatt's positive view of payment processors is largely driven by their digital wallet offerings, Horgan said in the note.\nSquare's Cash App is continuing to leverage its valuable monetization playbook and PayPal is showing a renewed focus on Venmo using a similar strategy focusing on customer acquisition via new products such as crypto trading and credit card, the analyst noted.\nSquare On Track to Beat User Estimate:Square's Cash App is continuing to acquire customers at low customer acquisition cost and monetizing them quickly, Horgan said. The analyst expects first-quarter Cash App monthly average users to top the Street's 33.8 million estimate.\nCiting positive trends in U.S. retail sales, the analyst increased his gross payment volume estimate for the quarter and earnings per share estimate from 7 cents to 12 cents.\nPayPal to be Buoyed by Venmo, Product Launches:Venmo is likely to top the $900 million revenue target for 2021, Horgan said.\n\"Overall, we see upside risk driven by a laundry list of product launches in 2021 (i.e. Venmo crypto trading) that will positively impact PYPL's results and push shares higher,\" the analyst wrote in the note.\nFiserv To Hit Guidance:Fiserv is positioned well to benefit during the COVID-19 pandemic reopening, Horgan said. Given current recovery rates, the analyst expects the company to hit the high end of its guided 8-12% internal revenue growth.\nGlobal Payments Pursues Risk Neutral Strategy:Global Payments is also a large beneficiary of the reopening, Rosenblatt said. The company's skew towards smaller sellers provides a positive decoupling of revenue growth from card network volume growth, it added.\nFurther, the firm sees Amazon.com, Inc.'s AWS and Alphabet Inc. Google partnerships as positive catalysts in the long-term.\nFidelity National Information Less Exposed to Reopening Tailwinds:Fidelity National continues to be a name that is likely to be less exposed to tailwinds of the reopening, Horgan said.\n\"In our view, outperformance in the banking segment is the biggest upside risk (strong pipeline expected to come online throughout '21),\" the analyst said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9,"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358408182,"gmtCreate":1616719957546,"gmtModify":1634524391490,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571044813043268","authorIdStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"trap?","listText":"trap?","text":"trap?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358408182","repostId":"1124742259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124742259","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616686649,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124742259?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-25 23:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green<blockquote>波音股价短期由红转绿</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124742259","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green in Thursday trading,As Boeing may restart 787","content":"<p>Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green&nbsp;in Thursday trading,As&nbsp;Boeing may restart 787 dreamliner deliveries Friday, people say.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，由于波音可能于周五重启787梦想飞机的交付，波音股价在周四交易中从红色短暂上涨至绿色。</blockquote></p><p>In addition,Boeing stock price target was&nbsp;raised to $265 from $210 at BofA Securities.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美银证券将波音股价目标从210美元上调至265美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04e130d61237ab07e9222dd22715ac6c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoeing shares rose in the short term from red to green<blockquote>波音股价短期由红转绿</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-25 23:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green&nbsp;in Thursday trading,As&nbsp;Boeing may restart 787 dreamliner deliveries Friday, people say.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，由于波音可能于周五重启787梦想飞机的交付，波音股价在周四交易中从红色短暂上涨至绿色。</blockquote></p><p>In addition,Boeing stock price target was&nbsp;raised to $265 from $210 at BofA Securities.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美银证券将波音股价目标从210美元上调至265美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04e130d61237ab07e9222dd22715ac6c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124742259","content_text":"Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green in Thursday trading,As Boeing may restart 787 dreamliner deliveries Friday, people say.In addition,Boeing stock price target was raised to $265 from $210 at BofA Securities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358401074,"gmtCreate":1616719886598,"gmtModify":1634524392414,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571044813043268","authorIdStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358401074","repostId":"1186019716","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389252055,"gmtCreate":1612780911677,"gmtModify":1703764907560,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571044813043268","authorIdStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389252055","repostId":"1105339151","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105339151","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612778898,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105339151?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Individual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了——这对股市意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105339151","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop\nLook who’s back.\nAfter a long absence, active indiv","content":"<p>There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop</p><p><blockquote>零售业的复兴不仅仅是游戏驿站</blockquote></p><p> Look who’s back.</p><p><blockquote>看看谁回来了。</blockquote></p><p> After a long absence, active individual investors have returned. While breakneck and foolhardy trading activity in shares of GameStop Corp.GME,+19.20%has dominated the headlines, unanswered questions remain as to whether a broader resurgence in retail trading will last and what it will mean for the stock market as U.S. benchmark indexes march to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>久违之后，活跃的个人投资者又回来了。尽管游戏驿站公司GME(+19.20%)股票的极快和鲁莽的交易活动占据了头条新闻，但零售交易的更广泛复苏是否会持续，以及随着美国基准指数的上涨，这对股市意味着什么，这些问题仍然悬而未决。三月创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The comeback</b></p><p><blockquote><b>复出</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s been a long time coming.</p><p><blockquote>已经等了很久了。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market put in a historic rally over the past decade “without any prominent retail interest in it,” said Chris Konstantinos, chief investment strategist at RiverFront Investment Group, in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>RiverFront Investment Group首席投资策略师克里斯·康斯坦丁诺斯(Chris Konstantinos)在接受采访时表示，过去十年股市出现了历史性反弹，“但散户对此没有任何明显的兴趣”。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that total bond fund flows have outpaced stock flows by nearly $3 trillion since 2007. In fact, individual investors appeared interested in almost anything else, from real estate to cryptocurrencies, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，自2007年以来，债券资金流量总额已超过股票流量近3万亿美元。康斯坦丁诺斯表示，事实上，个人投资者似乎对从房地产到加密货币的几乎所有其他东西都感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> A shift got under way last year as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Sequential growth in accounts at brokers such as Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%that cater to individual investors “was remarkable” at the end of the second quarter of 2020 and was followed by a major surge in growth in the following quarter, said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Feb. 2 note.</p><p><blockquote>去年，随着冠状病毒大流行的蔓延，一种转变开始了。Lori表示，2020年第二季度末，嘉信理财(Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%等迎合个人投资者的经纪商的账户环比增长“令人瞩目”，随后在接下来的一个季度出现大幅增长。加拿大皇家银行资本市场美国股票策略主管卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)在2月2日的一份报告中。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time Google searches for “day trading” were also on the rise, she noted (see charts below).</p><p><blockquote>她指出，与此同时，谷歌上“日内交易”的搜索量也在上升（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abaf0f0e954b8c180c43870b72f55252\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"655\"><span>RBC CAPITAL MARKETS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>加拿大皇家银行资本市场</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina and others acknowledged that a combination of lockdown-related boredom and stimulus checks from the U.S. government likely played a role in the uptick in individual investing interest.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳和其他人承认，与封锁相关的无聊和美国政府的刺激检查的结合可能在个人投资兴趣的上升中发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> The jury is out on whether that enthusiasm will endure, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, in an interview. It’s unclear how much of the pickup in retail trading merely reflects individuals throwing extra money via stimulus checks at the market, he said.</p><p><blockquote>Ned Davis Research Group首席美国策略师Ed Clissold在接受采访时表示，这种热情是否会持续还没有定论。他说，目前尚不清楚零售交易的回升有多少仅仅反映了个人通过刺激支票向市场投入额外资金。</blockquote></p><p> That sort of trading feels more like gambling than investing, he said, noting that “frothy” market action tends to fade quickly away.</p><p><blockquote>他说，这种交易感觉更像是赌博而不是投资，并指出“泡沫”市场行为往往会很快消失。</blockquote></p><p> No doubt, day traders who jumped on the GameStop rally in a big way and listened to pleas on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to hold the line were left to suffer ugly losses. Some market watchers fear that the bubble-like activity in so-called meme stocks could end up scaring away individual investors, nipping any resurgence in the bud.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，那些在游戏驿站反弹中大举买入并听取Reddit WallStreetBets论坛上坚持己见的日内交易者将遭受惨重的损失。一些市场观察人士担心，所谓模因股票的泡沫般的活动最终可能会吓跑个人投资者，将任何复苏扼杀在萌芽状态。</blockquote></p><p> But others argued that many individual investors, whose ranks aren’t made up soley of rapid-fire day traders, were likely to stick around.</p><p><blockquote>但其他人则认为，许多个人投资者可能会留下来，他们的队伍不仅仅是快速的日内交易者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Structural change’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“结构性变化”</b></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina said RBC suspects a “structural change may be afoot and that retail investors are likely to remain bigger players in the U.S. equity market going forward.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示，加拿大皇家银行怀疑“结构性变化可能正在发生，散户投资者未来可能仍将是美国股市中更大的参与者。”</blockquote></p><p> If so, that will require an attitude adjustment by Wall Street pros, who got used to paying little attention to individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，这将需要华尔街专业人士调整态度，他们习惯于很少关注个人投资者。</blockquote></p><p> After all, powerful waves of passive and systematic investment had rendered individual investors largely irrelevant to analysts cooking up market forecasts, wrote strategists at Société Générale, in a Thursday note.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行策略师在周四的一份报告中写道，毕竟，强大的被动和系统性投资浪潮使个人投资者在很大程度上与分析师炮制市场预测无关。</blockquote></p><p> But the market volatility created by the GameStop situation served as a wake-up call, the analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，游戏驿站局势造成的市场波动是一个唤醒看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> While GameStop and other heavily shorted names soared, hedge funds and other investors were seen liquidating long positions elsewhere, to take profits and cover losses, putting pressure on equities markets. Major benchmarks ended January on a sour note, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.30%,S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.39%and Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,+0.57%logging their largest weekly declines since October.</p><p><blockquote>尽管游戏驿站和其他被严重做空的公司股价飙升，但对冲基金和其他投资者却在其他地方平仓多头头寸，以获利了结并弥补损失，给股市带来压力。主要基准指数1月份收盘表现不佳，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA上涨0.30%，标准普尔500SPX上涨0.39%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.57%，创下10月份以来的最大单周跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks roared back in the past week, however, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaqscoring all-time highsas GameStop tumbled more than 80%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国股市在过去一周大幅反弹，标普500和纳斯达克指数创下历史新高，而游戏驿站则暴跌超过80%。</blockquote></p><p> The SocGen analysts said increased retail interest in the markets is part of a broader trend that has seen individual investors driving demand for investments that take environmental, social and corporate governance, or ESG, standards into account.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行分析师表示，散户对市场兴趣的增加是更广泛趋势的一部分，个人投资者推动了对考虑环境、社会和公司治理（ESG）标准的投资的需求。</blockquote></p><p> “Rather than criticizing retail investors and their behavioral pattens, it is better to slot them into the money equation,” they wrote. “After all, it is not only office workers who are locked down at home on snowy days but also very active day traders with access to inexpensive platforms.”</p><p><blockquote>他们写道：“与其批评散户投资者及其行为模式，不如将他们纳入金钱等式。”“毕竟，下雪天被锁在家里的不仅是上班族，还有非常活跃的日内交易者，他们可以访问廉价的平台。”</blockquote></p><p> Cabin fever, however, is hardly the only factor seen driving the renewed interest in the market by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，幽居病并不是推动个人投资者对市场重新产生兴趣的唯一因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Leveling the field</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平整场地</b></blockquote></p><p> Some individual investors who previously shunned equities might finally be succumbing to the notion that ultralow yields on bonds and elsewhere leave little alternative to the stock market. Equities still look attractive when it comes to dividend or earnings yields, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>一些以前回避股票的个人投资者可能最终会屈服于这样一种观念，即债券和其他领域的超低收益率除了股市之外别无选择。康斯坦丁诺斯表示，就股息或盈利收益率而言，股票看起来仍然具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moreover, there’s the leveling of the playing field between institutional and individual investors over the past few decades. Regulation FD (for “full disclosure’) and other regulatory changes as well as the rise of low-fee trading platforms have put individual investors “on a closer footing to institutional investors than at any other time in history,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>此外，过去几十年来，机构投资者和个人投资者之间的竞争环境是公平的。他表示，FD监管（“全面披露”）和其他监管变化以及低费用交易平台的兴起使个人投资者“比历史上任何时候都更接近机构投资者”。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, some market watchers have argued that the conventional branding of individual investors as the “dumb money” looks increasingly misguided, particularly after the GameStop episode showed supposedly “smart money” investors shorting more than 100% of the company’s stock, leaving them wide open to a painful short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，一些市场观察人士认为，将个人投资者称为“愚蠢的钱”的传统品牌看起来越来越被误导，特别是在游戏驿站事件显示所谓的“聪明的钱”投资者做空了该公司100%以上的股票之后，他们陷入了困境。痛苦的轧空。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina noted that some of the more well-known trades pursued by individual investors over the past year — buying stocks in the middle of a recession, buying airlines and cruise lines last summer, and implementing short squeezes this winter — come from a playbook that’s been largely abandoned by institutional investors over the past decade in favor of growth-, momentum- and quality-investing strategies.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳指出，个人投资者在过去一年中进行的一些更知名的交易——在经济衰退中购买股票、去年夏天购买航空公司和邮轮公司以及今年冬天实施空头挤压——来自过去十年，机构投资者基本上放弃了增长、动量和质量投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> On that point, highly shorted names have outperformed the market since the March 23 lows when it comes to both small- and large-cap stocks, a development that typically occurs after the market has put in a mid-recession low, she noted.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，在这一点上，自3月23日低点以来，无论是小盘股还是大盘股，被高度做空的股票的表现都优于市场，这种发展通常发生在市场陷入衰退中期低点之后。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the frenzy in retail trading that surrounded the short squeeze on GameStop and a handful of other heavily shorted small-cap stocks raised a red flag to investors on the lookout for the sort of froth that signals a rally is entering the sort of euphoric phase typically followed by a pullback.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，围绕游戏驿站和其他一些被严重做空的小盘股的空头挤压的散户交易的狂热向投资者发出了危险信号，他们正在寻找泡沫，这表明反弹正在进入欣快阶段。阶段通常会出现回调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Next leg?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一站？</b></blockquote></p><p> While that may prove to be the case in the near term, some investors contend a sustained pickup in active individual investing interest could help drive the next leg of a bull market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然短期内情况可能会如此，但一些投资者认为，活跃的个人投资兴趣持续回升可能有助于推动牛市的下一阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investors could continue to fuel interest in more value-oriented, smaller capitalization and higher volatility names, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>康斯坦丁诺斯表示，个人投资者可能会继续激发对更具价值导向、市值较小、波动性较高的股票的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> And sustained interest in individual securities could mean more “dispersion,” or variation in returns between individual stocks and sectors, said Clissold — an element that was missing over the past decade to the pain of active fund managers.</p><p><blockquote>克里索尔德表示，对个别证券的持续兴趣可能意味着个股和行业之间回报的更多“分散”或差异——这是过去十年中让主动型基金经理痛苦的缺失因素。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina argued that retail interest in specific stocks is likely to ebb and flow, as it has done over the past year, but probably won’t fade away.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳认为，散户对特定股票的兴趣可能会像过去一年那样潮起潮落，但可能不会消失。</blockquote></p><p> “Unless the door closes (i.e. through a major regulatory change), we fail to see why retail investor interest in trading specific names will completely go way given how elevated cash on the sidelines is among consumers,” she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>她写道：“除非大门关闭（即通过重大监管变化），否则考虑到消费者的观望现金水平大幅提高，我们不明白为什么散户投资者对交易特定名称的兴趣会完全消失。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Individual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了——这对股市意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIndividual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了——这对股市意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 18:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop</p><p><blockquote>零售业的复兴不仅仅是游戏驿站</blockquote></p><p> Look who’s back.</p><p><blockquote>看看谁回来了。</blockquote></p><p> After a long absence, active individual investors have returned. While breakneck and foolhardy trading activity in shares of GameStop Corp.GME,+19.20%has dominated the headlines, unanswered questions remain as to whether a broader resurgence in retail trading will last and what it will mean for the stock market as U.S. benchmark indexes march to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>久违之后，活跃的个人投资者又回来了。尽管游戏驿站公司GME(+19.20%)股票的极快和鲁莽的交易活动占据了头条新闻，但零售交易的更广泛复苏是否会持续，以及随着美国基准指数的上涨，这对股市意味着什么，这些问题仍然悬而未决。三月创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The comeback</b></p><p><blockquote><b>复出</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s been a long time coming.</p><p><blockquote>已经等了很久了。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market put in a historic rally over the past decade “without any prominent retail interest in it,” said Chris Konstantinos, chief investment strategist at RiverFront Investment Group, in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>RiverFront Investment Group首席投资策略师克里斯·康斯坦丁诺斯(Chris Konstantinos)在接受采访时表示，过去十年股市出现了历史性反弹，“但散户对此没有任何明显的兴趣”。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that total bond fund flows have outpaced stock flows by nearly $3 trillion since 2007. In fact, individual investors appeared interested in almost anything else, from real estate to cryptocurrencies, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，自2007年以来，债券资金流量总额已超过股票流量近3万亿美元。康斯坦丁诺斯表示，事实上，个人投资者似乎对从房地产到加密货币的几乎所有其他东西都感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> A shift got under way last year as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Sequential growth in accounts at brokers such as Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%that cater to individual investors “was remarkable” at the end of the second quarter of 2020 and was followed by a major surge in growth in the following quarter, said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Feb. 2 note.</p><p><blockquote>去年，随着冠状病毒大流行的蔓延，一种转变开始了。Lori表示，2020年第二季度末，嘉信理财(Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%等迎合个人投资者的经纪商的账户环比增长“令人瞩目”，随后在接下来的一个季度出现大幅增长。加拿大皇家银行资本市场美国股票策略主管卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)在2月2日的一份报告中。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time Google searches for “day trading” were also on the rise, she noted (see charts below).</p><p><blockquote>她指出，与此同时，谷歌上“日内交易”的搜索量也在上升（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abaf0f0e954b8c180c43870b72f55252\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"655\"><span>RBC CAPITAL MARKETS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>加拿大皇家银行资本市场</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina and others acknowledged that a combination of lockdown-related boredom and stimulus checks from the U.S. government likely played a role in the uptick in individual investing interest.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳和其他人承认，与封锁相关的无聊和美国政府的刺激检查的结合可能在个人投资兴趣的上升中发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> The jury is out on whether that enthusiasm will endure, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, in an interview. It’s unclear how much of the pickup in retail trading merely reflects individuals throwing extra money via stimulus checks at the market, he said.</p><p><blockquote>Ned Davis Research Group首席美国策略师Ed Clissold在接受采访时表示，这种热情是否会持续还没有定论。他说，目前尚不清楚零售交易的回升有多少仅仅反映了个人通过刺激支票向市场投入额外资金。</blockquote></p><p> That sort of trading feels more like gambling than investing, he said, noting that “frothy” market action tends to fade quickly away.</p><p><blockquote>他说，这种交易感觉更像是赌博而不是投资，并指出“泡沫”市场行为往往会很快消失。</blockquote></p><p> No doubt, day traders who jumped on the GameStop rally in a big way and listened to pleas on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to hold the line were left to suffer ugly losses. Some market watchers fear that the bubble-like activity in so-called meme stocks could end up scaring away individual investors, nipping any resurgence in the bud.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，那些在游戏驿站反弹中大举买入并听取Reddit WallStreetBets论坛上坚持己见的日内交易者将遭受惨重的损失。一些市场观察人士担心，所谓模因股票的泡沫般的活动最终可能会吓跑个人投资者，将任何复苏扼杀在萌芽状态。</blockquote></p><p> But others argued that many individual investors, whose ranks aren’t made up soley of rapid-fire day traders, were likely to stick around.</p><p><blockquote>但其他人则认为，许多个人投资者可能会留下来，他们的队伍不仅仅是快速的日内交易者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Structural change’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“结构性变化”</b></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina said RBC suspects a “structural change may be afoot and that retail investors are likely to remain bigger players in the U.S. equity market going forward.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示，加拿大皇家银行怀疑“结构性变化可能正在发生，散户投资者未来可能仍将是美国股市中更大的参与者。”</blockquote></p><p> If so, that will require an attitude adjustment by Wall Street pros, who got used to paying little attention to individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，这将需要华尔街专业人士调整态度，他们习惯于很少关注个人投资者。</blockquote></p><p> After all, powerful waves of passive and systematic investment had rendered individual investors largely irrelevant to analysts cooking up market forecasts, wrote strategists at Société Générale, in a Thursday note.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行策略师在周四的一份报告中写道，毕竟，强大的被动和系统性投资浪潮使个人投资者在很大程度上与分析师炮制市场预测无关。</blockquote></p><p> But the market volatility created by the GameStop situation served as a wake-up call, the analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，游戏驿站局势造成的市场波动是一个唤醒看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> While GameStop and other heavily shorted names soared, hedge funds and other investors were seen liquidating long positions elsewhere, to take profits and cover losses, putting pressure on equities markets. Major benchmarks ended January on a sour note, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.30%,S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.39%and Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,+0.57%logging their largest weekly declines since October.</p><p><blockquote>尽管游戏驿站和其他被严重做空的公司股价飙升，但对冲基金和其他投资者却在其他地方平仓多头头寸，以获利了结并弥补损失，给股市带来压力。主要基准指数1月份收盘表现不佳，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA上涨0.30%，标准普尔500SPX上涨0.39%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.57%，创下10月份以来的最大单周跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks roared back in the past week, however, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaqscoring all-time highsas GameStop tumbled more than 80%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国股市在过去一周大幅反弹，标普500和纳斯达克指数创下历史新高，而游戏驿站则暴跌超过80%。</blockquote></p><p> The SocGen analysts said increased retail interest in the markets is part of a broader trend that has seen individual investors driving demand for investments that take environmental, social and corporate governance, or ESG, standards into account.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行分析师表示，散户对市场兴趣的增加是更广泛趋势的一部分，个人投资者推动了对考虑环境、社会和公司治理（ESG）标准的投资的需求。</blockquote></p><p> “Rather than criticizing retail investors and their behavioral pattens, it is better to slot them into the money equation,” they wrote. “After all, it is not only office workers who are locked down at home on snowy days but also very active day traders with access to inexpensive platforms.”</p><p><blockquote>他们写道：“与其批评散户投资者及其行为模式，不如将他们纳入金钱等式。”“毕竟，下雪天被锁在家里的不仅是上班族，还有非常活跃的日内交易者，他们可以访问廉价的平台。”</blockquote></p><p> Cabin fever, however, is hardly the only factor seen driving the renewed interest in the market by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，幽居病并不是推动个人投资者对市场重新产生兴趣的唯一因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Leveling the field</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平整场地</b></blockquote></p><p> Some individual investors who previously shunned equities might finally be succumbing to the notion that ultralow yields on bonds and elsewhere leave little alternative to the stock market. Equities still look attractive when it comes to dividend or earnings yields, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>一些以前回避股票的个人投资者可能最终会屈服于这样一种观念，即债券和其他领域的超低收益率除了股市之外别无选择。康斯坦丁诺斯表示，就股息或盈利收益率而言，股票看起来仍然具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moreover, there’s the leveling of the playing field between institutional and individual investors over the past few decades. Regulation FD (for “full disclosure’) and other regulatory changes as well as the rise of low-fee trading platforms have put individual investors “on a closer footing to institutional investors than at any other time in history,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>此外，过去几十年来，机构投资者和个人投资者之间的竞争环境是公平的。他表示，FD监管（“全面披露”）和其他监管变化以及低费用交易平台的兴起使个人投资者“比历史上任何时候都更接近机构投资者”。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, some market watchers have argued that the conventional branding of individual investors as the “dumb money” looks increasingly misguided, particularly after the GameStop episode showed supposedly “smart money” investors shorting more than 100% of the company’s stock, leaving them wide open to a painful short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，一些市场观察人士认为，将个人投资者称为“愚蠢的钱”的传统品牌看起来越来越被误导，特别是在游戏驿站事件显示所谓的“聪明的钱”投资者做空了该公司100%以上的股票之后，他们陷入了困境。痛苦的轧空。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina noted that some of the more well-known trades pursued by individual investors over the past year — buying stocks in the middle of a recession, buying airlines and cruise lines last summer, and implementing short squeezes this winter — come from a playbook that’s been largely abandoned by institutional investors over the past decade in favor of growth-, momentum- and quality-investing strategies.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳指出，个人投资者在过去一年中进行的一些更知名的交易——在经济衰退中购买股票、去年夏天购买航空公司和邮轮公司以及今年冬天实施空头挤压——来自过去十年，机构投资者基本上放弃了增长、动量和质量投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> On that point, highly shorted names have outperformed the market since the March 23 lows when it comes to both small- and large-cap stocks, a development that typically occurs after the market has put in a mid-recession low, she noted.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，在这一点上，自3月23日低点以来，无论是小盘股还是大盘股，被高度做空的股票的表现都优于市场，这种发展通常发生在市场陷入衰退中期低点之后。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the frenzy in retail trading that surrounded the short squeeze on GameStop and a handful of other heavily shorted small-cap stocks raised a red flag to investors on the lookout for the sort of froth that signals a rally is entering the sort of euphoric phase typically followed by a pullback.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，围绕游戏驿站和其他一些被严重做空的小盘股的空头挤压的散户交易的狂热向投资者发出了危险信号，他们正在寻找泡沫，这表明反弹正在进入欣快阶段。阶段通常会出现回调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Next leg?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一站？</b></blockquote></p><p> While that may prove to be the case in the near term, some investors contend a sustained pickup in active individual investing interest could help drive the next leg of a bull market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然短期内情况可能会如此，但一些投资者认为，活跃的个人投资兴趣持续回升可能有助于推动牛市的下一阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investors could continue to fuel interest in more value-oriented, smaller capitalization and higher volatility names, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>康斯坦丁诺斯表示，个人投资者可能会继续激发对更具价值导向、市值较小、波动性较高的股票的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> And sustained interest in individual securities could mean more “dispersion,” or variation in returns between individual stocks and sectors, said Clissold — an element that was missing over the past decade to the pain of active fund managers.</p><p><blockquote>克里索尔德表示，对个别证券的持续兴趣可能意味着个股和行业之间回报的更多“分散”或差异——这是过去十年中让主动型基金经理痛苦的缺失因素。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina argued that retail interest in specific stocks is likely to ebb and flow, as it has done over the past year, but probably won’t fade away.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳认为，散户对特定股票的兴趣可能会像过去一年那样潮起潮落，但可能不会消失。</blockquote></p><p> “Unless the door closes (i.e. through a major regulatory change), we fail to see why retail investor interest in trading specific names will completely go way given how elevated cash on the sidelines is among consumers,” she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>她写道：“除非大门关闭（即通过重大监管变化），否则考虑到消费者的观望现金水平大幅提高，我们不明白为什么散户投资者对交易特定名称的兴趣会完全消失。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/individual-investors-are-back-heres-what-it-means-for-the-stock-market-11612557558?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","GME":"游戏驿站",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/individual-investors-are-back-heres-what-it-means-for-the-stock-market-11612557558?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1105339151","content_text":"There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop\nLook who’s back.\nAfter a long absence, active individual investors have returned. While breakneck and foolhardy trading activity in shares of GameStop Corp.GME,+19.20%has dominated the headlines, unanswered questions remain as to whether a broader resurgence in retail trading will last and what it will mean for the stock market as U.S. benchmark indexes march to all-time highs.\nThe comeback\nIt’s been a long time coming.\nThe stock market put in a historic rally over the past decade “without any prominent retail interest in it,” said Chris Konstantinos, chief investment strategist at RiverFront Investment Group, in an interview.\nHe noted that total bond fund flows have outpaced stock flows by nearly $3 trillion since 2007. In fact, individual investors appeared interested in almost anything else, from real estate to cryptocurrencies, Konstantinos said.\nA shift got under way last year as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Sequential growth in accounts at brokers such as Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%that cater to individual investors “was remarkable” at the end of the second quarter of 2020 and was followed by a major surge in growth in the following quarter, said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Feb. 2 note.\nAt the same time Google searches for “day trading” were also on the rise, she noted (see charts below).\nRBC CAPITAL MARKETS\nCalvasina and others acknowledged that a combination of lockdown-related boredom and stimulus checks from the U.S. government likely played a role in the uptick in individual investing interest.\nThe jury is out on whether that enthusiasm will endure, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, in an interview. It’s unclear how much of the pickup in retail trading merely reflects individuals throwing extra money via stimulus checks at the market, he said.\nThat sort of trading feels more like gambling than investing, he said, noting that “frothy” market action tends to fade quickly away.\nNo doubt, day traders who jumped on the GameStop rally in a big way and listened to pleas on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to hold the line were left to suffer ugly losses. Some market watchers fear that the bubble-like activity in so-called meme stocks could end up scaring away individual investors, nipping any resurgence in the bud.\nBut others argued that many individual investors, whose ranks aren’t made up soley of rapid-fire day traders, were likely to stick around.\n‘Structural change’\nCalvasina said RBC suspects a “structural change may be afoot and that retail investors are likely to remain bigger players in the U.S. equity market going forward.”\nIf so, that will require an attitude adjustment by Wall Street pros, who got used to paying little attention to individual investors.\nAfter all, powerful waves of passive and systematic investment had rendered individual investors largely irrelevant to analysts cooking up market forecasts, wrote strategists at Société Générale, in a Thursday note.\nBut the market volatility created by the GameStop situation served as a wake-up call, the analysts said.\nWhile GameStop and other heavily shorted names soared, hedge funds and other investors were seen liquidating long positions elsewhere, to take profits and cover losses, putting pressure on equities markets. Major benchmarks ended January on a sour note, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.30%,S&P 500SPX,+0.39%and Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,+0.57%logging their largest weekly declines since October.\nU.S. stocks roared back in the past week, however, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaqscoring all-time highsas GameStop tumbled more than 80%.\nThe SocGen analysts said increased retail interest in the markets is part of a broader trend that has seen individual investors driving demand for investments that take environmental, social and corporate governance, or ESG, standards into account.\n“Rather than criticizing retail investors and their behavioral pattens, it is better to slot them into the money equation,” they wrote. “After all, it is not only office workers who are locked down at home on snowy days but also very active day traders with access to inexpensive platforms.”\nCabin fever, however, is hardly the only factor seen driving the renewed interest in the market by individual investors.\nLeveling the field\nSome individual investors who previously shunned equities might finally be succumbing to the notion that ultralow yields on bonds and elsewhere leave little alternative to the stock market. Equities still look attractive when it comes to dividend or earnings yields, Konstantinos said.\nMoreover, there’s the leveling of the playing field between institutional and individual investors over the past few decades. Regulation FD (for “full disclosure’) and other regulatory changes as well as the rise of low-fee trading platforms have put individual investors “on a closer footing to institutional investors than at any other time in history,” he said.\nIndeed, some market watchers have argued that the conventional branding of individual investors as the “dumb money” looks increasingly misguided, particularly after the GameStop episode showed supposedly “smart money” investors shorting more than 100% of the company’s stock, leaving them wide open to a painful short squeeze.\nCalvasina noted that some of the more well-known trades pursued by individual investors over the past year — buying stocks in the middle of a recession, buying airlines and cruise lines last summer, and implementing short squeezes this winter — come from a playbook that’s been largely abandoned by institutional investors over the past decade in favor of growth-, momentum- and quality-investing strategies.\nOn that point, highly shorted names have outperformed the market since the March 23 lows when it comes to both small- and large-cap stocks, a development that typically occurs after the market has put in a mid-recession low, she noted.\nStill, the frenzy in retail trading that surrounded the short squeeze on GameStop and a handful of other heavily shorted small-cap stocks raised a red flag to investors on the lookout for the sort of froth that signals a rally is entering the sort of euphoric phase typically followed by a pullback.\nNext leg?\nWhile that may prove to be the case in the near term, some investors contend a sustained pickup in active individual investing interest could help drive the next leg of a bull market.\nIndividual investors could continue to fuel interest in more value-oriented, smaller capitalization and higher volatility names, Konstantinos said.\nAnd sustained interest in individual securities could mean more “dispersion,” or variation in returns between individual stocks and sectors, said Clissold — an element that was missing over the past decade to the pain of active fund managers.\nCalvasina argued that retail interest in specific stocks is likely to ebb and flow, as it has done over the past year, but probably won’t fade away.\n“Unless the door closes (i.e. through a major regulatory change), we fail to see why retail investor interest in trading specific names will completely go way given how elevated cash on the sidelines is among consumers,” she wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317654220,"gmtCreate":1612447942460,"gmtModify":1703762016113,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571044813043268","authorIdStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317654220","repostId":"1162866028","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317652476,"gmtCreate":1612447809695,"gmtModify":1703762014082,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571044813043268","authorIdStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317652476","repostId":"2108719145","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":167347298,"gmtCreate":1624249498614,"gmtModify":1634008887271,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571044813043268","idStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"APPL","listText":"APPL","text":"APPL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167347298","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165920776,"gmtCreate":1624088556295,"gmtModify":1634010803217,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571044813043268","idStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"great news","listText":"great news","text":"great news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165920776","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1687,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106330467,"gmtCreate":1620087587859,"gmtModify":1634207970649,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571044813043268","idStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Grin]&nbsp;","listText":"[Grin]&nbsp;","text":"[Grin]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106330467","repostId":"1194616315","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378851413,"gmtCreate":1619017305732,"gmtModify":1634289177426,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571044813043268","idStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378851413","repostId":"1129560929","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1129560929","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1619015707,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129560929?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-21 22:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Square, PayPal Are Top Picks In The Fintech Space Ahead Of Earnings<blockquote>为什么Square和PayPal是财报发布前金融科技领域的首选</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129560929","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Ahead of earnings from payment processing companies, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities picked his ","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e388dd7b580a775abca2bb0500cc3a0\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"375\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ahead of earnings from payment processing companies, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities picked his five favorite names in the space.</p><p><blockquote>在支付处理公司公布财报之前，罗森布拉特证券(Rosenblatt Securities)的一位分析师挑选了该领域他最喜欢的五个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ratings:</b>Analyst Sean Horgan maintained a Buy rating on&nbsp;<b>PayPal Holdings, Inc.</b>&nbsp;and increased the price target from $320 to $350.</p><p><blockquote><b>评级：</b>分析师肖恩·霍根(Sean Horgan)维持买入评级<b>PayPal控股公司。</b>并将目标价从320美元上调至350美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst maintained the Buy rating and $320 price target for&nbsp;<b>Square Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote>分析师维持买入评级和320美元的目标价<b>广场公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> The analyst also maintained a Buy rating and $140 price target for&nbsp;<b>Fiserv&nbsp;Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师还维持买入评级和140美元的目标价<b>费瑟夫公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Horgan maintained&nbsp;<b>Global Payments Inc.</b>&nbsp;at Buy and nudged up the price target from $235 to $238.</p><p><blockquote>霍根维持<b>全球支付公司。</b>买入并将目标价从235美元上调至238美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst rated&nbsp;<b>Fidelity National Information Servics&nbsp;Inc</b>&nbsp;a Neutral and increased the price. target from $140 to $146.</p><p><blockquote>分析师评级<b>富达国家信息服务公司</b>中性并提高了价格。目标价从140美元到146美元。</blockquote></p><p> Horgan named Square and PayPal as his top picks in the run-up to the first-quarter earnings releases.</p><p><blockquote>霍根在第一季度财报发布前将Square和PayPal列为他的首选。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Theses:</b>Rosenblatt's positive view of payment processors is largely driven by their digital wallet offerings, Horgan said in the note.</p><p><blockquote><b>论文：</b>霍根在报告中表示，罗森布拉特对支付处理商的积极看法很大程度上是由其数字钱包产品推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Square's Cash App is continuing to leverage its valuable monetization playbook and PayPal is showing a renewed focus on Venmo using a similar strategy focusing&nbsp;on customer acquisition via new products such as&nbsp;crypto trading and&nbsp;credit card, the analyst noted.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，Square的Cash应用程序正在继续利用其有价值的货币化策略，PayPal正在重新关注Venmo，采用类似的策略，专注于通过加密货币交易和信用卡等新产品获取客户。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Square On Track to Beat User Estimate:</b>Square's&nbsp;Cash App&nbsp;is continuing to acquire customers at low customer acquisition cost and monetizing them quickly, Horgan said. The analyst expects first-quarter Cash App monthly average users to top the Street's 33.8 million estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>Square有望超出用户预期：</b>Horgan表示，Square的Cash应用程序正在继续以较低的获客成本获取客户，并快速将其货币化。该分析师预计，第一季度Cash App的月平均用户数将超过华尔街预期的3380万。</blockquote></p><p> Citing positive trends in U.S. retail sales, the analyst increased his gross payment volume estimate for the quarter and earnings per share estimate from 7 cents to 12 cents.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师援引美国零售销售的积极趋势，将本季度总支付量预期和每股收益预期从7美分上调至12美分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal to be Buoyed by Venmo, Product Launches:</b>Venmo is likely to top the $900 million revenue target for 2021, Horgan said.</p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal将受到Venmo的推动，推出产品：</b>Horgan表示，Venmo可能会超过2021年9亿美元的收入目标。</blockquote></p><p> \"Overall, we see upside risk driven by a laundry list of product launches in 2021 (i.e. Venmo crypto trading) that will positively impact PYPL's results and push shares higher,\" the analyst wrote in the note.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师在报告中写道：“总体而言，我们认为2021年推出的一系列产品（即Venmo加密货币交易）将带来上行风险，这将对PYPL的业绩产生积极影响并推高股价。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fiserv To Hit Guidance:</b>Fiserv is positioned well to benefit during the COVID-19 pandemic reopening, Horgan said. Given current recovery rates, the analyst expects the company to hit the high end of its guided 8-12% internal revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote><b>Fiserv将达到指引：</b>Horgan表示，Fiserv处于有利地位，可以在COVID-19大流行重新开放期间受益。鉴于目前的回收率，分析师预计该公司将达到8-12%国内收入增长指导值的上限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Payments Pursues Risk Neutral Strategy:</b>Global Payments is also a large beneficiary of the reopening, Rosenblatt said. The company's skew towards smaller sellers provides a positive decoupling of revenue growth from card network volume growth, it added.</p><p><blockquote><b>Global Payments奉行风险中性策略：</b>罗森布拉特表示，全球支付也是重新开放的一大受益者。它补充说，该公司对规模较小的卖家的倾斜使收入增长与卡网络销量增长实现了积极的脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Further, the firm sees&nbsp;<b>Amazon.com,&nbsp;Inc.'s</b>&nbsp;AWS&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Alphabet Inc.</b>&nbsp;Google partnerships as positive catalysts in the long-term.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司认为<b>亚马逊公司的</b>AWS和<b>Alphabet公司。</b>从长远来看，谷歌的合作伙伴关系是积极的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fidelity National Information Less Exposed to Reopening Tailwinds:</b>Fidelity National continues to be a name that&nbsp;is likely to be less exposed to tailwinds of the reopening, Horgan said.</p><p><blockquote><b>富达国家信息公司受重新开放顺风的影响较小：</b>霍根表示，富达国民仍然是一个不太可能受到重新开放的利好影响的名字。</blockquote></p><p> \"In our view, outperformance in the banking segment is the biggest upside risk (strong pipeline expected to come online throughout '21),\" the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师表示：“我们认为，银行业的优异表现是最大的上行风险（预计整个21年将有强大的管道上线）。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ab06f97db168ce3c05e434ff94f9b2\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"247\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Square, PayPal Are Top Picks In The Fintech Space Ahead Of Earnings<blockquote>为什么Square和PayPal是财报发布前金融科技领域的首选</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Square, PayPal Are Top Picks In The Fintech Space Ahead Of Earnings<blockquote>为什么Square和PayPal是财报发布前金融科技领域的首选</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-21 22:35</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e388dd7b580a775abca2bb0500cc3a0\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"375\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ahead of earnings from payment processing companies, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities picked his five favorite names in the space.</p><p><blockquote>在支付处理公司公布财报之前，罗森布拉特证券(Rosenblatt Securities)的一位分析师挑选了该领域他最喜欢的五个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ratings:</b>Analyst Sean Horgan maintained a Buy rating on&nbsp;<b>PayPal Holdings, Inc.</b>&nbsp;and increased the price target from $320 to $350.</p><p><blockquote><b>评级：</b>分析师肖恩·霍根(Sean Horgan)维持买入评级<b>PayPal控股公司。</b>并将目标价从320美元上调至350美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst maintained the Buy rating and $320 price target for&nbsp;<b>Square Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote>分析师维持买入评级和320美元的目标价<b>广场公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> The analyst also maintained a Buy rating and $140 price target for&nbsp;<b>Fiserv&nbsp;Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师还维持买入评级和140美元的目标价<b>费瑟夫公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Horgan maintained&nbsp;<b>Global Payments Inc.</b>&nbsp;at Buy and nudged up the price target from $235 to $238.</p><p><blockquote>霍根维持<b>全球支付公司。</b>买入并将目标价从235美元上调至238美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst rated&nbsp;<b>Fidelity National Information Servics&nbsp;Inc</b>&nbsp;a Neutral and increased the price. target from $140 to $146.</p><p><blockquote>分析师评级<b>富达国家信息服务公司</b>中性并提高了价格。目标价从140美元到146美元。</blockquote></p><p> Horgan named Square and PayPal as his top picks in the run-up to the first-quarter earnings releases.</p><p><blockquote>霍根在第一季度财报发布前将Square和PayPal列为他的首选。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Theses:</b>Rosenblatt's positive view of payment processors is largely driven by their digital wallet offerings, Horgan said in the note.</p><p><blockquote><b>论文：</b>霍根在报告中表示，罗森布拉特对支付处理商的积极看法很大程度上是由其数字钱包产品推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Square's Cash App is continuing to leverage its valuable monetization playbook and PayPal is showing a renewed focus on Venmo using a similar strategy focusing&nbsp;on customer acquisition via new products such as&nbsp;crypto trading and&nbsp;credit card, the analyst noted.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，Square的Cash应用程序正在继续利用其有价值的货币化策略，PayPal正在重新关注Venmo，采用类似的策略，专注于通过加密货币交易和信用卡等新产品获取客户。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Square On Track to Beat User Estimate:</b>Square's&nbsp;Cash App&nbsp;is continuing to acquire customers at low customer acquisition cost and monetizing them quickly, Horgan said. The analyst expects first-quarter Cash App monthly average users to top the Street's 33.8 million estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>Square有望超出用户预期：</b>Horgan表示，Square的Cash应用程序正在继续以较低的获客成本获取客户，并快速将其货币化。该分析师预计，第一季度Cash App的月平均用户数将超过华尔街预期的3380万。</blockquote></p><p> Citing positive trends in U.S. retail sales, the analyst increased his gross payment volume estimate for the quarter and earnings per share estimate from 7 cents to 12 cents.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师援引美国零售销售的积极趋势，将本季度总支付量预期和每股收益预期从7美分上调至12美分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal to be Buoyed by Venmo, Product Launches:</b>Venmo is likely to top the $900 million revenue target for 2021, Horgan said.</p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal将受到Venmo的推动，推出产品：</b>Horgan表示，Venmo可能会超过2021年9亿美元的收入目标。</blockquote></p><p> \"Overall, we see upside risk driven by a laundry list of product launches in 2021 (i.e. Venmo crypto trading) that will positively impact PYPL's results and push shares higher,\" the analyst wrote in the note.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师在报告中写道：“总体而言，我们认为2021年推出的一系列产品（即Venmo加密货币交易）将带来上行风险，这将对PYPL的业绩产生积极影响并推高股价。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fiserv To Hit Guidance:</b>Fiserv is positioned well to benefit during the COVID-19 pandemic reopening, Horgan said. Given current recovery rates, the analyst expects the company to hit the high end of its guided 8-12% internal revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote><b>Fiserv将达到指引：</b>Horgan表示，Fiserv处于有利地位，可以在COVID-19大流行重新开放期间受益。鉴于目前的回收率，分析师预计该公司将达到8-12%国内收入增长指导值的上限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Payments Pursues Risk Neutral Strategy:</b>Global Payments is also a large beneficiary of the reopening, Rosenblatt said. The company's skew towards smaller sellers provides a positive decoupling of revenue growth from card network volume growth, it added.</p><p><blockquote><b>Global Payments奉行风险中性策略：</b>罗森布拉特表示，全球支付也是重新开放的一大受益者。它补充说，该公司对规模较小的卖家的倾斜使收入增长与卡网络销量增长实现了积极的脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Further, the firm sees&nbsp;<b>Amazon.com,&nbsp;Inc.'s</b>&nbsp;AWS&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Alphabet Inc.</b>&nbsp;Google partnerships as positive catalysts in the long-term.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司认为<b>亚马逊公司的</b>AWS和<b>Alphabet公司。</b>从长远来看，谷歌的合作伙伴关系是积极的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fidelity National Information Less Exposed to Reopening Tailwinds:</b>Fidelity National continues to be a name that&nbsp;is likely to be less exposed to tailwinds of the reopening, Horgan said.</p><p><blockquote><b>富达国家信息公司受重新开放顺风的影响较小：</b>霍根表示，富达国民仍然是一个不太可能受到重新开放的利好影响的名字。</blockquote></p><p> \"In our view, outperformance in the banking segment is the biggest upside risk (strong pipeline expected to come online throughout '21),\" the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师表示：“我们认为，银行业的优异表现是最大的上行风险（预计整个21年将有强大的管道上线）。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ab06f97db168ce3c05e434ff94f9b2\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"247\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129560929","content_text":"Ahead of earnings from payment processing companies, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities picked his five favorite names in the space.\nThe Ratings:Analyst Sean Horgan maintained a Buy rating on PayPal Holdings, Inc. and increased the price target from $320 to $350.\nThe analyst maintained the Buy rating and $320 price target for Square Inc.\nThe analyst also maintained a Buy rating and $140 price target for Fiserv Inc.\nHorgan maintained Global Payments Inc. at Buy and nudged up the price target from $235 to $238.\nThe analyst rated Fidelity National Information Servics Inc a Neutral and increased the price. target from $140 to $146.\nHorgan named Square and PayPal as his top picks in the run-up to the first-quarter earnings releases.\nThe Theses:Rosenblatt's positive view of payment processors is largely driven by their digital wallet offerings, Horgan said in the note.\nSquare's Cash App is continuing to leverage its valuable monetization playbook and PayPal is showing a renewed focus on Venmo using a similar strategy focusing on customer acquisition via new products such as crypto trading and credit card, the analyst noted.\nSquare On Track to Beat User Estimate:Square's Cash App is continuing to acquire customers at low customer acquisition cost and monetizing them quickly, Horgan said. The analyst expects first-quarter Cash App monthly average users to top the Street's 33.8 million estimate.\nCiting positive trends in U.S. retail sales, the analyst increased his gross payment volume estimate for the quarter and earnings per share estimate from 7 cents to 12 cents.\nPayPal to be Buoyed by Venmo, Product Launches:Venmo is likely to top the $900 million revenue target for 2021, Horgan said.\n\"Overall, we see upside risk driven by a laundry list of product launches in 2021 (i.e. Venmo crypto trading) that will positively impact PYPL's results and push shares higher,\" the analyst wrote in the note.\nFiserv To Hit Guidance:Fiserv is positioned well to benefit during the COVID-19 pandemic reopening, Horgan said. Given current recovery rates, the analyst expects the company to hit the high end of its guided 8-12% internal revenue growth.\nGlobal Payments Pursues Risk Neutral Strategy:Global Payments is also a large beneficiary of the reopening, Rosenblatt said. The company's skew towards smaller sellers provides a positive decoupling of revenue growth from card network volume growth, it added.\nFurther, the firm sees Amazon.com, Inc.'s AWS and Alphabet Inc. Google partnerships as positive catalysts in the long-term.\nFidelity National Information Less Exposed to Reopening Tailwinds:Fidelity National continues to be a name that is likely to be less exposed to tailwinds of the reopening, Horgan said.\n\"In our view, outperformance in the banking segment is the biggest upside risk (strong pipeline expected to come online throughout '21),\" the analyst said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9,"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358408182,"gmtCreate":1616719957546,"gmtModify":1634524391490,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571044813043268","idStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"trap?","listText":"trap?","text":"trap?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358408182","repostId":"1124742259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124742259","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616686649,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124742259?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-25 23:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green<blockquote>波音股价短期由红转绿</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124742259","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green in Thursday trading,As Boeing may restart 787","content":"<p>Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green&nbsp;in Thursday trading,As&nbsp;Boeing may restart 787 dreamliner deliveries Friday, people say.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，由于波音可能于周五重启787梦想飞机的交付，波音股价在周四交易中从红色短暂上涨至绿色。</blockquote></p><p>In addition,Boeing stock price target was&nbsp;raised to $265 from $210 at BofA Securities.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美银证券将波音股价目标从210美元上调至265美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04e130d61237ab07e9222dd22715ac6c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green<blockquote>波音股价短期由红转绿</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoeing shares rose in the short term from red to green<blockquote>波音股价短期由红转绿</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-25 23:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green&nbsp;in Thursday trading,As&nbsp;Boeing may restart 787 dreamliner deliveries Friday, people say.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，由于波音可能于周五重启787梦想飞机的交付，波音股价在周四交易中从红色短暂上涨至绿色。</blockquote></p><p>In addition,Boeing stock price target was&nbsp;raised to $265 from $210 at BofA Securities.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美银证券将波音股价目标从210美元上调至265美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04e130d61237ab07e9222dd22715ac6c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124742259","content_text":"Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green in Thursday trading,As Boeing may restart 787 dreamliner deliveries Friday, people say.In addition,Boeing stock price target was raised to $265 from $210 at BofA Securities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358401074,"gmtCreate":1616719886598,"gmtModify":1634524392414,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571044813043268","idStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358401074","repostId":"1186019716","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389252055,"gmtCreate":1612780911677,"gmtModify":1703764907560,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571044813043268","idStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389252055","repostId":"1105339151","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105339151","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612778898,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105339151?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Individual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了——这对股市意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105339151","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop\nLook who’s back.\nAfter a long absence, active indiv","content":"<p>There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop</p><p><blockquote>零售业的复兴不仅仅是游戏驿站</blockquote></p><p> Look who’s back.</p><p><blockquote>看看谁回来了。</blockquote></p><p> After a long absence, active individual investors have returned. While breakneck and foolhardy trading activity in shares of GameStop Corp.GME,+19.20%has dominated the headlines, unanswered questions remain as to whether a broader resurgence in retail trading will last and what it will mean for the stock market as U.S. benchmark indexes march to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>久违之后，活跃的个人投资者又回来了。尽管游戏驿站公司GME(+19.20%)股票的极快和鲁莽的交易活动占据了头条新闻，但零售交易的更广泛复苏是否会持续，以及随着美国基准指数的上涨，这对股市意味着什么，这些问题仍然悬而未决。三月创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The comeback</b></p><p><blockquote><b>复出</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s been a long time coming.</p><p><blockquote>已经等了很久了。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market put in a historic rally over the past decade “without any prominent retail interest in it,” said Chris Konstantinos, chief investment strategist at RiverFront Investment Group, in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>RiverFront Investment Group首席投资策略师克里斯·康斯坦丁诺斯(Chris Konstantinos)在接受采访时表示，过去十年股市出现了历史性反弹，“但散户对此没有任何明显的兴趣”。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that total bond fund flows have outpaced stock flows by nearly $3 trillion since 2007. In fact, individual investors appeared interested in almost anything else, from real estate to cryptocurrencies, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，自2007年以来，债券资金流量总额已超过股票流量近3万亿美元。康斯坦丁诺斯表示，事实上，个人投资者似乎对从房地产到加密货币的几乎所有其他东西都感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> A shift got under way last year as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Sequential growth in accounts at brokers such as Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%that cater to individual investors “was remarkable” at the end of the second quarter of 2020 and was followed by a major surge in growth in the following quarter, said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Feb. 2 note.</p><p><blockquote>去年，随着冠状病毒大流行的蔓延，一种转变开始了。Lori表示，2020年第二季度末，嘉信理财(Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%等迎合个人投资者的经纪商的账户环比增长“令人瞩目”，随后在接下来的一个季度出现大幅增长。加拿大皇家银行资本市场美国股票策略主管卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)在2月2日的一份报告中。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time Google searches for “day trading” were also on the rise, she noted (see charts below).</p><p><blockquote>她指出，与此同时，谷歌上“日内交易”的搜索量也在上升（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abaf0f0e954b8c180c43870b72f55252\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"655\"><span>RBC CAPITAL MARKETS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>加拿大皇家银行资本市场</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina and others acknowledged that a combination of lockdown-related boredom and stimulus checks from the U.S. government likely played a role in the uptick in individual investing interest.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳和其他人承认，与封锁相关的无聊和美国政府的刺激检查的结合可能在个人投资兴趣的上升中发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> The jury is out on whether that enthusiasm will endure, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, in an interview. It’s unclear how much of the pickup in retail trading merely reflects individuals throwing extra money via stimulus checks at the market, he said.</p><p><blockquote>Ned Davis Research Group首席美国策略师Ed Clissold在接受采访时表示，这种热情是否会持续还没有定论。他说，目前尚不清楚零售交易的回升有多少仅仅反映了个人通过刺激支票向市场投入额外资金。</blockquote></p><p> That sort of trading feels more like gambling than investing, he said, noting that “frothy” market action tends to fade quickly away.</p><p><blockquote>他说，这种交易感觉更像是赌博而不是投资，并指出“泡沫”市场行为往往会很快消失。</blockquote></p><p> No doubt, day traders who jumped on the GameStop rally in a big way and listened to pleas on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to hold the line were left to suffer ugly losses. Some market watchers fear that the bubble-like activity in so-called meme stocks could end up scaring away individual investors, nipping any resurgence in the bud.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，那些在游戏驿站反弹中大举买入并听取Reddit WallStreetBets论坛上坚持己见的日内交易者将遭受惨重的损失。一些市场观察人士担心，所谓模因股票的泡沫般的活动最终可能会吓跑个人投资者，将任何复苏扼杀在萌芽状态。</blockquote></p><p> But others argued that many individual investors, whose ranks aren’t made up soley of rapid-fire day traders, were likely to stick around.</p><p><blockquote>但其他人则认为，许多个人投资者可能会留下来，他们的队伍不仅仅是快速的日内交易者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Structural change’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“结构性变化”</b></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina said RBC suspects a “structural change may be afoot and that retail investors are likely to remain bigger players in the U.S. equity market going forward.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示，加拿大皇家银行怀疑“结构性变化可能正在发生，散户投资者未来可能仍将是美国股市中更大的参与者。”</blockquote></p><p> If so, that will require an attitude adjustment by Wall Street pros, who got used to paying little attention to individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，这将需要华尔街专业人士调整态度，他们习惯于很少关注个人投资者。</blockquote></p><p> After all, powerful waves of passive and systematic investment had rendered individual investors largely irrelevant to analysts cooking up market forecasts, wrote strategists at Société Générale, in a Thursday note.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行策略师在周四的一份报告中写道，毕竟，强大的被动和系统性投资浪潮使个人投资者在很大程度上与分析师炮制市场预测无关。</blockquote></p><p> But the market volatility created by the GameStop situation served as a wake-up call, the analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，游戏驿站局势造成的市场波动是一个唤醒看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> While GameStop and other heavily shorted names soared, hedge funds and other investors were seen liquidating long positions elsewhere, to take profits and cover losses, putting pressure on equities markets. Major benchmarks ended January on a sour note, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.30%,S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.39%and Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,+0.57%logging their largest weekly declines since October.</p><p><blockquote>尽管游戏驿站和其他被严重做空的公司股价飙升，但对冲基金和其他投资者却在其他地方平仓多头头寸，以获利了结并弥补损失，给股市带来压力。主要基准指数1月份收盘表现不佳，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA上涨0.30%，标准普尔500SPX上涨0.39%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.57%，创下10月份以来的最大单周跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks roared back in the past week, however, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaqscoring all-time highsas GameStop tumbled more than 80%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国股市在过去一周大幅反弹，标普500和纳斯达克指数创下历史新高，而游戏驿站则暴跌超过80%。</blockquote></p><p> The SocGen analysts said increased retail interest in the markets is part of a broader trend that has seen individual investors driving demand for investments that take environmental, social and corporate governance, or ESG, standards into account.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行分析师表示，散户对市场兴趣的增加是更广泛趋势的一部分，个人投资者推动了对考虑环境、社会和公司治理（ESG）标准的投资的需求。</blockquote></p><p> “Rather than criticizing retail investors and their behavioral pattens, it is better to slot them into the money equation,” they wrote. “After all, it is not only office workers who are locked down at home on snowy days but also very active day traders with access to inexpensive platforms.”</p><p><blockquote>他们写道：“与其批评散户投资者及其行为模式，不如将他们纳入金钱等式。”“毕竟，下雪天被锁在家里的不仅是上班族，还有非常活跃的日内交易者，他们可以访问廉价的平台。”</blockquote></p><p> Cabin fever, however, is hardly the only factor seen driving the renewed interest in the market by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，幽居病并不是推动个人投资者对市场重新产生兴趣的唯一因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Leveling the field</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平整场地</b></blockquote></p><p> Some individual investors who previously shunned equities might finally be succumbing to the notion that ultralow yields on bonds and elsewhere leave little alternative to the stock market. Equities still look attractive when it comes to dividend or earnings yields, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>一些以前回避股票的个人投资者可能最终会屈服于这样一种观念，即债券和其他领域的超低收益率除了股市之外别无选择。康斯坦丁诺斯表示，就股息或盈利收益率而言，股票看起来仍然具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moreover, there’s the leveling of the playing field between institutional and individual investors over the past few decades. Regulation FD (for “full disclosure’) and other regulatory changes as well as the rise of low-fee trading platforms have put individual investors “on a closer footing to institutional investors than at any other time in history,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>此外，过去几十年来，机构投资者和个人投资者之间的竞争环境是公平的。他表示，FD监管（“全面披露”）和其他监管变化以及低费用交易平台的兴起使个人投资者“比历史上任何时候都更接近机构投资者”。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, some market watchers have argued that the conventional branding of individual investors as the “dumb money” looks increasingly misguided, particularly after the GameStop episode showed supposedly “smart money” investors shorting more than 100% of the company’s stock, leaving them wide open to a painful short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，一些市场观察人士认为，将个人投资者称为“愚蠢的钱”的传统品牌看起来越来越被误导，特别是在游戏驿站事件显示所谓的“聪明的钱”投资者做空了该公司100%以上的股票之后，他们陷入了困境。痛苦的轧空。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina noted that some of the more well-known trades pursued by individual investors over the past year — buying stocks in the middle of a recession, buying airlines and cruise lines last summer, and implementing short squeezes this winter — come from a playbook that’s been largely abandoned by institutional investors over the past decade in favor of growth-, momentum- and quality-investing strategies.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳指出，个人投资者在过去一年中进行的一些更知名的交易——在经济衰退中购买股票、去年夏天购买航空公司和邮轮公司以及今年冬天实施空头挤压——来自过去十年，机构投资者基本上放弃了增长、动量和质量投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> On that point, highly shorted names have outperformed the market since the March 23 lows when it comes to both small- and large-cap stocks, a development that typically occurs after the market has put in a mid-recession low, she noted.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，在这一点上，自3月23日低点以来，无论是小盘股还是大盘股，被高度做空的股票的表现都优于市场，这种发展通常发生在市场陷入衰退中期低点之后。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the frenzy in retail trading that surrounded the short squeeze on GameStop and a handful of other heavily shorted small-cap stocks raised a red flag to investors on the lookout for the sort of froth that signals a rally is entering the sort of euphoric phase typically followed by a pullback.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，围绕游戏驿站和其他一些被严重做空的小盘股的空头挤压的散户交易的狂热向投资者发出了危险信号，他们正在寻找泡沫，这表明反弹正在进入欣快阶段。阶段通常会出现回调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Next leg?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一站？</b></blockquote></p><p> While that may prove to be the case in the near term, some investors contend a sustained pickup in active individual investing interest could help drive the next leg of a bull market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然短期内情况可能会如此，但一些投资者认为，活跃的个人投资兴趣持续回升可能有助于推动牛市的下一阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investors could continue to fuel interest in more value-oriented, smaller capitalization and higher volatility names, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>康斯坦丁诺斯表示，个人投资者可能会继续激发对更具价值导向、市值较小、波动性较高的股票的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> And sustained interest in individual securities could mean more “dispersion,” or variation in returns between individual stocks and sectors, said Clissold — an element that was missing over the past decade to the pain of active fund managers.</p><p><blockquote>克里索尔德表示，对个别证券的持续兴趣可能意味着个股和行业之间回报的更多“分散”或差异——这是过去十年中让主动型基金经理痛苦的缺失因素。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina argued that retail interest in specific stocks is likely to ebb and flow, as it has done over the past year, but probably won’t fade away.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳认为，散户对特定股票的兴趣可能会像过去一年那样潮起潮落，但可能不会消失。</blockquote></p><p> “Unless the door closes (i.e. through a major regulatory change), we fail to see why retail investor interest in trading specific names will completely go way given how elevated cash on the sidelines is among consumers,” she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>她写道：“除非大门关闭（即通过重大监管变化），否则考虑到消费者的观望现金水平大幅提高，我们不明白为什么散户投资者对交易特定名称的兴趣会完全消失。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Individual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了——这对股市意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIndividual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了——这对股市意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 18:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop</p><p><blockquote>零售业的复兴不仅仅是游戏驿站</blockquote></p><p> Look who’s back.</p><p><blockquote>看看谁回来了。</blockquote></p><p> After a long absence, active individual investors have returned. While breakneck and foolhardy trading activity in shares of GameStop Corp.GME,+19.20%has dominated the headlines, unanswered questions remain as to whether a broader resurgence in retail trading will last and what it will mean for the stock market as U.S. benchmark indexes march to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>久违之后，活跃的个人投资者又回来了。尽管游戏驿站公司GME(+19.20%)股票的极快和鲁莽的交易活动占据了头条新闻，但零售交易的更广泛复苏是否会持续，以及随着美国基准指数的上涨，这对股市意味着什么，这些问题仍然悬而未决。三月创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The comeback</b></p><p><blockquote><b>复出</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s been a long time coming.</p><p><blockquote>已经等了很久了。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market put in a historic rally over the past decade “without any prominent retail interest in it,” said Chris Konstantinos, chief investment strategist at RiverFront Investment Group, in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>RiverFront Investment Group首席投资策略师克里斯·康斯坦丁诺斯(Chris Konstantinos)在接受采访时表示，过去十年股市出现了历史性反弹，“但散户对此没有任何明显的兴趣”。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that total bond fund flows have outpaced stock flows by nearly $3 trillion since 2007. In fact, individual investors appeared interested in almost anything else, from real estate to cryptocurrencies, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，自2007年以来，债券资金流量总额已超过股票流量近3万亿美元。康斯坦丁诺斯表示，事实上，个人投资者似乎对从房地产到加密货币的几乎所有其他东西都感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> A shift got under way last year as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Sequential growth in accounts at brokers such as Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%that cater to individual investors “was remarkable” at the end of the second quarter of 2020 and was followed by a major surge in growth in the following quarter, said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Feb. 2 note.</p><p><blockquote>去年，随着冠状病毒大流行的蔓延，一种转变开始了。Lori表示，2020年第二季度末，嘉信理财(Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%等迎合个人投资者的经纪商的账户环比增长“令人瞩目”，随后在接下来的一个季度出现大幅增长。加拿大皇家银行资本市场美国股票策略主管卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)在2月2日的一份报告中。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time Google searches for “day trading” were also on the rise, she noted (see charts below).</p><p><blockquote>她指出，与此同时，谷歌上“日内交易”的搜索量也在上升（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abaf0f0e954b8c180c43870b72f55252\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"655\"><span>RBC CAPITAL MARKETS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>加拿大皇家银行资本市场</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina and others acknowledged that a combination of lockdown-related boredom and stimulus checks from the U.S. government likely played a role in the uptick in individual investing interest.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳和其他人承认，与封锁相关的无聊和美国政府的刺激检查的结合可能在个人投资兴趣的上升中发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> The jury is out on whether that enthusiasm will endure, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, in an interview. It’s unclear how much of the pickup in retail trading merely reflects individuals throwing extra money via stimulus checks at the market, he said.</p><p><blockquote>Ned Davis Research Group首席美国策略师Ed Clissold在接受采访时表示，这种热情是否会持续还没有定论。他说，目前尚不清楚零售交易的回升有多少仅仅反映了个人通过刺激支票向市场投入额外资金。</blockquote></p><p> That sort of trading feels more like gambling than investing, he said, noting that “frothy” market action tends to fade quickly away.</p><p><blockquote>他说，这种交易感觉更像是赌博而不是投资，并指出“泡沫”市场行为往往会很快消失。</blockquote></p><p> No doubt, day traders who jumped on the GameStop rally in a big way and listened to pleas on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to hold the line were left to suffer ugly losses. Some market watchers fear that the bubble-like activity in so-called meme stocks could end up scaring away individual investors, nipping any resurgence in the bud.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，那些在游戏驿站反弹中大举买入并听取Reddit WallStreetBets论坛上坚持己见的日内交易者将遭受惨重的损失。一些市场观察人士担心，所谓模因股票的泡沫般的活动最终可能会吓跑个人投资者，将任何复苏扼杀在萌芽状态。</blockquote></p><p> But others argued that many individual investors, whose ranks aren’t made up soley of rapid-fire day traders, were likely to stick around.</p><p><blockquote>但其他人则认为，许多个人投资者可能会留下来，他们的队伍不仅仅是快速的日内交易者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Structural change’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“结构性变化”</b></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina said RBC suspects a “structural change may be afoot and that retail investors are likely to remain bigger players in the U.S. equity market going forward.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示，加拿大皇家银行怀疑“结构性变化可能正在发生，散户投资者未来可能仍将是美国股市中更大的参与者。”</blockquote></p><p> If so, that will require an attitude adjustment by Wall Street pros, who got used to paying little attention to individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，这将需要华尔街专业人士调整态度，他们习惯于很少关注个人投资者。</blockquote></p><p> After all, powerful waves of passive and systematic investment had rendered individual investors largely irrelevant to analysts cooking up market forecasts, wrote strategists at Société Générale, in a Thursday note.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行策略师在周四的一份报告中写道，毕竟，强大的被动和系统性投资浪潮使个人投资者在很大程度上与分析师炮制市场预测无关。</blockquote></p><p> But the market volatility created by the GameStop situation served as a wake-up call, the analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，游戏驿站局势造成的市场波动是一个唤醒看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> While GameStop and other heavily shorted names soared, hedge funds and other investors were seen liquidating long positions elsewhere, to take profits and cover losses, putting pressure on equities markets. Major benchmarks ended January on a sour note, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.30%,S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.39%and Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,+0.57%logging their largest weekly declines since October.</p><p><blockquote>尽管游戏驿站和其他被严重做空的公司股价飙升，但对冲基金和其他投资者却在其他地方平仓多头头寸，以获利了结并弥补损失，给股市带来压力。主要基准指数1月份收盘表现不佳，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA上涨0.30%，标准普尔500SPX上涨0.39%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.57%，创下10月份以来的最大单周跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks roared back in the past week, however, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaqscoring all-time highsas GameStop tumbled more than 80%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国股市在过去一周大幅反弹，标普500和纳斯达克指数创下历史新高，而游戏驿站则暴跌超过80%。</blockquote></p><p> The SocGen analysts said increased retail interest in the markets is part of a broader trend that has seen individual investors driving demand for investments that take environmental, social and corporate governance, or ESG, standards into account.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行分析师表示，散户对市场兴趣的增加是更广泛趋势的一部分，个人投资者推动了对考虑环境、社会和公司治理（ESG）标准的投资的需求。</blockquote></p><p> “Rather than criticizing retail investors and their behavioral pattens, it is better to slot them into the money equation,” they wrote. “After all, it is not only office workers who are locked down at home on snowy days but also very active day traders with access to inexpensive platforms.”</p><p><blockquote>他们写道：“与其批评散户投资者及其行为模式，不如将他们纳入金钱等式。”“毕竟，下雪天被锁在家里的不仅是上班族，还有非常活跃的日内交易者，他们可以访问廉价的平台。”</blockquote></p><p> Cabin fever, however, is hardly the only factor seen driving the renewed interest in the market by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，幽居病并不是推动个人投资者对市场重新产生兴趣的唯一因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Leveling the field</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平整场地</b></blockquote></p><p> Some individual investors who previously shunned equities might finally be succumbing to the notion that ultralow yields on bonds and elsewhere leave little alternative to the stock market. Equities still look attractive when it comes to dividend or earnings yields, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>一些以前回避股票的个人投资者可能最终会屈服于这样一种观念，即债券和其他领域的超低收益率除了股市之外别无选择。康斯坦丁诺斯表示，就股息或盈利收益率而言，股票看起来仍然具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moreover, there’s the leveling of the playing field between institutional and individual investors over the past few decades. Regulation FD (for “full disclosure’) and other regulatory changes as well as the rise of low-fee trading platforms have put individual investors “on a closer footing to institutional investors than at any other time in history,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>此外，过去几十年来，机构投资者和个人投资者之间的竞争环境是公平的。他表示，FD监管（“全面披露”）和其他监管变化以及低费用交易平台的兴起使个人投资者“比历史上任何时候都更接近机构投资者”。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, some market watchers have argued that the conventional branding of individual investors as the “dumb money” looks increasingly misguided, particularly after the GameStop episode showed supposedly “smart money” investors shorting more than 100% of the company’s stock, leaving them wide open to a painful short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，一些市场观察人士认为，将个人投资者称为“愚蠢的钱”的传统品牌看起来越来越被误导，特别是在游戏驿站事件显示所谓的“聪明的钱”投资者做空了该公司100%以上的股票之后，他们陷入了困境。痛苦的轧空。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina noted that some of the more well-known trades pursued by individual investors over the past year — buying stocks in the middle of a recession, buying airlines and cruise lines last summer, and implementing short squeezes this winter — come from a playbook that’s been largely abandoned by institutional investors over the past decade in favor of growth-, momentum- and quality-investing strategies.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳指出，个人投资者在过去一年中进行的一些更知名的交易——在经济衰退中购买股票、去年夏天购买航空公司和邮轮公司以及今年冬天实施空头挤压——来自过去十年，机构投资者基本上放弃了增长、动量和质量投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> On that point, highly shorted names have outperformed the market since the March 23 lows when it comes to both small- and large-cap stocks, a development that typically occurs after the market has put in a mid-recession low, she noted.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，在这一点上，自3月23日低点以来，无论是小盘股还是大盘股，被高度做空的股票的表现都优于市场，这种发展通常发生在市场陷入衰退中期低点之后。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the frenzy in retail trading that surrounded the short squeeze on GameStop and a handful of other heavily shorted small-cap stocks raised a red flag to investors on the lookout for the sort of froth that signals a rally is entering the sort of euphoric phase typically followed by a pullback.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，围绕游戏驿站和其他一些被严重做空的小盘股的空头挤压的散户交易的狂热向投资者发出了危险信号，他们正在寻找泡沫，这表明反弹正在进入欣快阶段。阶段通常会出现回调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Next leg?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一站？</b></blockquote></p><p> While that may prove to be the case in the near term, some investors contend a sustained pickup in active individual investing interest could help drive the next leg of a bull market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然短期内情况可能会如此，但一些投资者认为，活跃的个人投资兴趣持续回升可能有助于推动牛市的下一阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investors could continue to fuel interest in more value-oriented, smaller capitalization and higher volatility names, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>康斯坦丁诺斯表示，个人投资者可能会继续激发对更具价值导向、市值较小、波动性较高的股票的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> And sustained interest in individual securities could mean more “dispersion,” or variation in returns between individual stocks and sectors, said Clissold — an element that was missing over the past decade to the pain of active fund managers.</p><p><blockquote>克里索尔德表示，对个别证券的持续兴趣可能意味着个股和行业之间回报的更多“分散”或差异——这是过去十年中让主动型基金经理痛苦的缺失因素。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina argued that retail interest in specific stocks is likely to ebb and flow, as it has done over the past year, but probably won’t fade away.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳认为，散户对特定股票的兴趣可能会像过去一年那样潮起潮落，但可能不会消失。</blockquote></p><p> “Unless the door closes (i.e. through a major regulatory change), we fail to see why retail investor interest in trading specific names will completely go way given how elevated cash on the sidelines is among consumers,” she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>她写道：“除非大门关闭（即通过重大监管变化），否则考虑到消费者的观望现金水平大幅提高，我们不明白为什么散户投资者对交易特定名称的兴趣会完全消失。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/individual-investors-are-back-heres-what-it-means-for-the-stock-market-11612557558?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","GME":"游戏驿站",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/individual-investors-are-back-heres-what-it-means-for-the-stock-market-11612557558?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1105339151","content_text":"There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop\nLook who’s back.\nAfter a long absence, active individual investors have returned. While breakneck and foolhardy trading activity in shares of GameStop Corp.GME,+19.20%has dominated the headlines, unanswered questions remain as to whether a broader resurgence in retail trading will last and what it will mean for the stock market as U.S. benchmark indexes march to all-time highs.\nThe comeback\nIt’s been a long time coming.\nThe stock market put in a historic rally over the past decade “without any prominent retail interest in it,” said Chris Konstantinos, chief investment strategist at RiverFront Investment Group, in an interview.\nHe noted that total bond fund flows have outpaced stock flows by nearly $3 trillion since 2007. In fact, individual investors appeared interested in almost anything else, from real estate to cryptocurrencies, Konstantinos said.\nA shift got under way last year as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Sequential growth in accounts at brokers such as Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%that cater to individual investors “was remarkable” at the end of the second quarter of 2020 and was followed by a major surge in growth in the following quarter, said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Feb. 2 note.\nAt the same time Google searches for “day trading” were also on the rise, she noted (see charts below).\nRBC CAPITAL MARKETS\nCalvasina and others acknowledged that a combination of lockdown-related boredom and stimulus checks from the U.S. government likely played a role in the uptick in individual investing interest.\nThe jury is out on whether that enthusiasm will endure, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, in an interview. It’s unclear how much of the pickup in retail trading merely reflects individuals throwing extra money via stimulus checks at the market, he said.\nThat sort of trading feels more like gambling than investing, he said, noting that “frothy” market action tends to fade quickly away.\nNo doubt, day traders who jumped on the GameStop rally in a big way and listened to pleas on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to hold the line were left to suffer ugly losses. Some market watchers fear that the bubble-like activity in so-called meme stocks could end up scaring away individual investors, nipping any resurgence in the bud.\nBut others argued that many individual investors, whose ranks aren’t made up soley of rapid-fire day traders, were likely to stick around.\n‘Structural change’\nCalvasina said RBC suspects a “structural change may be afoot and that retail investors are likely to remain bigger players in the U.S. equity market going forward.”\nIf so, that will require an attitude adjustment by Wall Street pros, who got used to paying little attention to individual investors.\nAfter all, powerful waves of passive and systematic investment had rendered individual investors largely irrelevant to analysts cooking up market forecasts, wrote strategists at Société Générale, in a Thursday note.\nBut the market volatility created by the GameStop situation served as a wake-up call, the analysts said.\nWhile GameStop and other heavily shorted names soared, hedge funds and other investors were seen liquidating long positions elsewhere, to take profits and cover losses, putting pressure on equities markets. Major benchmarks ended January on a sour note, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.30%,S&P 500SPX,+0.39%and Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,+0.57%logging their largest weekly declines since October.\nU.S. stocks roared back in the past week, however, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaqscoring all-time highsas GameStop tumbled more than 80%.\nThe SocGen analysts said increased retail interest in the markets is part of a broader trend that has seen individual investors driving demand for investments that take environmental, social and corporate governance, or ESG, standards into account.\n“Rather than criticizing retail investors and their behavioral pattens, it is better to slot them into the money equation,” they wrote. “After all, it is not only office workers who are locked down at home on snowy days but also very active day traders with access to inexpensive platforms.”\nCabin fever, however, is hardly the only factor seen driving the renewed interest in the market by individual investors.\nLeveling the field\nSome individual investors who previously shunned equities might finally be succumbing to the notion that ultralow yields on bonds and elsewhere leave little alternative to the stock market. Equities still look attractive when it comes to dividend or earnings yields, Konstantinos said.\nMoreover, there’s the leveling of the playing field between institutional and individual investors over the past few decades. Regulation FD (for “full disclosure’) and other regulatory changes as well as the rise of low-fee trading platforms have put individual investors “on a closer footing to institutional investors than at any other time in history,” he said.\nIndeed, some market watchers have argued that the conventional branding of individual investors as the “dumb money” looks increasingly misguided, particularly after the GameStop episode showed supposedly “smart money” investors shorting more than 100% of the company’s stock, leaving them wide open to a painful short squeeze.\nCalvasina noted that some of the more well-known trades pursued by individual investors over the past year — buying stocks in the middle of a recession, buying airlines and cruise lines last summer, and implementing short squeezes this winter — come from a playbook that’s been largely abandoned by institutional investors over the past decade in favor of growth-, momentum- and quality-investing strategies.\nOn that point, highly shorted names have outperformed the market since the March 23 lows when it comes to both small- and large-cap stocks, a development that typically occurs after the market has put in a mid-recession low, she noted.\nStill, the frenzy in retail trading that surrounded the short squeeze on GameStop and a handful of other heavily shorted small-cap stocks raised a red flag to investors on the lookout for the sort of froth that signals a rally is entering the sort of euphoric phase typically followed by a pullback.\nNext leg?\nWhile that may prove to be the case in the near term, some investors contend a sustained pickup in active individual investing interest could help drive the next leg of a bull market.\nIndividual investors could continue to fuel interest in more value-oriented, smaller capitalization and higher volatility names, Konstantinos said.\nAnd sustained interest in individual securities could mean more “dispersion,” or variation in returns between individual stocks and sectors, said Clissold — an element that was missing over the past decade to the pain of active fund managers.\nCalvasina argued that retail interest in specific stocks is likely to ebb and flow, as it has done over the past year, but probably won’t fade away.\n“Unless the door closes (i.e. through a major regulatory change), we fail to see why retail investor interest in trading specific names will completely go way given how elevated cash on the sidelines is among consumers,” she wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317654220,"gmtCreate":1612447942460,"gmtModify":1703762016113,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571044813043268","idStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317654220","repostId":"1162866028","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317652476,"gmtCreate":1612447809695,"gmtModify":1703762014082,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571044813043268","idStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317652476","repostId":"2108719145","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}