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ShermanGoh

ShermanGoh

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2021-06-21

APPL

Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>

2021-06-19

great news

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2021-05-04

[Grin]

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2021-04-21

👍🏻

Why Square, PayPal Are Top Picks In The Fintech Space Ahead Of Earnings<blockquote>为什么 Square 和PayPal是财报公布前金融科技领域的首选</blockquote>

2021-03-26

trap?

Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green<blockquote>波音股价短期从红色升至绿色</blockquote>

2021-03-26

👍🏻

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2021-02-08

👍

Individual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了--这对股市意味着什么</blockquote>

2021-02-04

Hmmm

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2021-02-04

Nice

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10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。</li><li>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。</li><li>从技术分析的角度来看，股价正在遵循上升的三角形模式，并正朝着137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News 公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司 (AAPL) 的股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。由基本面支撑的出色回报。特别是，我想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone手机占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务成熟（增长率低）；其次，它过去是（现在仍然是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，庞大的iPhone用户基础（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果已经能够有效地实现其收入来源的多元化，目前呈现以下结构。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看这些部分中的每一个：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>于二零一六年至二零二零年，iPhone分部以0.20%的复合年增长率增长，并由占总销售额的63.4%（二零一六年）变为51%（「TTM」）。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）iPhone细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%，这得益于具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列，以及来自中国的有趣数据。我相信向5G的过渡将是这一细分市场增长的主要驱动力。通过这种方式，我想报告第二季度盈利看涨期权的部分成绩单。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户正在加速采用iPhone 12和5G作为其业务未来的关键平台。例如，达美航空公司正在将 iPhone 12 和 5G 连接交到空乘人员手中，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的 Openreach 已开始为数万名现场工程师配备 iPhone 12，以加快他们向全国各地家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到仅30秒，这主要是通过从PC站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高了他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2、iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad 细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016 年为 9.6%，而 TTM 为 9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。以下是iPad细分市场过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了新一代iPad的很多实现方式。不过，我也不得不承认，在同一片海里游泳的还有一个大玩家，新款2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一个观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（而目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. Mac</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少保持不变，2016年为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>由M1芯片驱动的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我个人尝试了新一代Mac电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常清楚如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部以28.78%的复合年增长率增长，并从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占总销售额的10.8%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果手表在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车，救了你的命，不错吧？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我看不到后者的市场，但我可能错了）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部以21.9%的复合年增长率增长，并由二零一六年占总销售额的11.3%变为占总销售额的18.6%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。新服务苹果电视+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信未来服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度盈利看涨期权中推断出的一个有趣的部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基数持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店的交易账户和付费账户数量在 9 月份季度创下历史新高，我们每个地区的付费账户都增长了两位数。第三，付费订阅量连续增长超过3500万，我们现在平台上的所有服务的付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。公允价值是一个经过算法调整的价值，考虑了基本面和技术面的不同因素（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务状况，因为我将R&amp;D费用资本化，摊销年限为3年。我不认为在苹果的情况下，R&amp;D是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贴现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本案例场景</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本案例场景。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G转型驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 Mac细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 12%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 7.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况场景</i>: 生意火爆!在最佳情况下，我再次将我为基本情况描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，然而，除此之外，我还看到了中国更大的市场渗透率。在过去5年中，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额跃升了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 14%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 9.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏情况</i>:嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权喜欢“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长率略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设第一年的增长率为10%，第二年至第五年的CAGR为3.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果带着苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下都分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>灵敏度分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本案例场景的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形模式。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价前进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果出现这种情况，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，按原样理解）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够提前几年发现问题并解决问题。通过观察在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以说该股票目前被高估了，但没有那么高。对于关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代表。考虑到这一点，我认为没有理由恐慌，然而，我也确实看到了市场即将出现的调整。许多技术指标和基本面指标都告诉我，目前市场过于沉重（即使标准普尔500可能会走高，也许在4400点区域）。总之，我不打算平掉我的全部苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平掉其中的 60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。</li><li>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。</li><li>从技术分析的角度来看，股价正在遵循上升的三角形模式，并正朝着137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News 公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司 (AAPL) 的股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。由基本面支撑的出色回报。特别是，我想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone手机占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务成熟（增长率低）；其次，它过去是（现在仍然是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，庞大的iPhone用户基础（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果已经能够有效地实现其收入来源的多元化，目前呈现以下结构。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看这些部分中的每一个：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>于二零一六年至二零二零年，iPhone分部以0.20%的复合年增长率增长，并由占总销售额的63.4%（二零一六年）变为51%（「TTM」）。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）iPhone细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%，这得益于具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列，以及来自中国的有趣数据。我相信向5G的过渡将是这一细分市场增长的主要驱动力。通过这种方式，我想报告第二季度盈利看涨期权的部分成绩单。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户正在加速采用iPhone 12和5G作为其业务未来的关键平台。例如，达美航空公司正在将 iPhone 12 和 5G 连接交到空乘人员手中，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的 Openreach 已开始为数万名现场工程师配备 iPhone 12，以加快他们向全国各地家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到仅30秒，这主要是通过从PC站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高了他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2、iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad 细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016 年为 9.6%，而 TTM 为 9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。以下是iPad细分市场过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了新一代iPad的很多实现方式。不过，我也不得不承认，在同一片海里游泳的还有一个大玩家，新款2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一个观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（而目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. Mac</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少保持不变，2016年为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>由M1芯片驱动的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我个人尝试了新一代Mac电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常清楚如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部以28.78%的复合年增长率增长，并从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占总销售额的10.8%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果手表在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车，救了你的命，不错吧？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我看不到后者的市场，但我可能错了）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部以21.9%的复合年增长率增长，并由二零一六年占总销售额的11.3%变为占总销售额的18.6%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。新服务苹果电视+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信未来服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度盈利看涨期权中推断出的一个有趣的部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基数持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店的交易账户和付费账户数量在 9 月份季度创下历史新高，我们每个地区的付费账户都增长了两位数。第三，付费订阅量连续增长超过3500万，我们现在平台上的所有服务的付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。公允价值是一个经过算法调整的价值，考虑了基本面和技术面的不同因素（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务状况，因为我将R&amp;D费用资本化，摊销年限为3年。我不认为在苹果的情况下，R&amp;D是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贴现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本案例场景</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本案例场景。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G转型驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 Mac细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 12%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 7.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况场景</i>: 生意火爆!在最佳情况下，我再次将我为基本情况描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，然而，除此之外，我还看到了中国更大的市场渗透率。在过去5年中，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额跃升了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 14%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 9.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏情况</i>:嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权喜欢“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长率略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设第一年的增长率为10%，第二年至第五年的CAGR为3.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果带着苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下都分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>灵敏度分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本案例场景的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形模式。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价前进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果出现这种情况，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，按原样理解）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够提前几年发现问题并解决问题。通过观察在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以说该股票目前被高估了，但没有那么高。对于关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代表。考虑到这一点，我认为没有理由恐慌，然而，我也确实看到了市场即将出现的调整。许多技术指标和基本面指标都告诉我，目前市场过于沉重（即使标准普尔500可能会走高，也许在4400点区域）。总之，我不打算平掉我的全部苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平掉其中的 60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165920776,"gmtCreate":1624088556295,"gmtModify":1634010803217,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571044813043268","idStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"great news","listText":"great news","text":"great news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165920776","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106330467,"gmtCreate":1620087587859,"gmtModify":1634207970649,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571044813043268","idStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Grin]&nbsp;","listText":"[Grin]&nbsp;","text":"[Grin]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106330467","repostId":"1194616315","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1879,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378851413,"gmtCreate":1619017305732,"gmtModify":1634289177426,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571044813043268","idStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378851413","repostId":"1129560929","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1129560929","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1619015707,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129560929?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-21 22:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Square, PayPal Are Top Picks In The Fintech Space Ahead Of Earnings<blockquote>为什么 Square 和PayPal是财报公布前金融科技领域的首选</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129560929","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Ahead of earnings from payment processing companies, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities picked his ","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e388dd7b580a775abca2bb0500cc3a0\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"375\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ahead of earnings from payment processing companies, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities picked his five favorite names in the space.</p><p><blockquote>在支付处理公司公布收益之前，罗森布拉特证券公司的一位分析师选出了他在该领域最喜欢的五个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ratings:</b>Analyst Sean Horgan maintained a Buy rating on&nbsp;<b>PayPal Holdings, Inc.</b>&nbsp;and increased the price target from $320 to $350.</p><p><blockquote><b>评级：</b>分析师肖恩·霍根维持买入评级<b>PayPal控股公司。</b>并将目标价从 320 美元上调至 350 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst maintained the Buy rating and $320 price target for&nbsp;<b>Square Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote>分析师维持买入评级和 320 美元目标价<b>广场公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> The analyst also maintained a Buy rating and $140 price target for&nbsp;<b>Fiserv&nbsp;Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师还维持买入评级和 140 美元目标价<b>Fiserv公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Horgan maintained&nbsp;<b>Global Payments Inc.</b>&nbsp;at Buy and nudged up the price target from $235 to $238.</p><p><blockquote>霍根维持<b>全球支付公司。</b>买入并将目标价从 235 美元上调至 238 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst rated&nbsp;<b>Fidelity National Information Servics&nbsp;Inc</b>&nbsp;a Neutral and increased the price. target from $140 to $146.</p><p><blockquote>分析师评级<b>富达国家信息服务公司</b>中性并提高了价格。目标从140美元到146美元。</blockquote></p><p> Horgan named Square and PayPal as his top picks in the run-up to the first-quarter earnings releases.</p><p><blockquote>霍根将 Square 和PayPal列为第一季度财报发布前的首选。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Theses:</b>Rosenblatt's positive view of payment processors is largely driven by their digital wallet offerings, Horgan said in the note.</p><p><blockquote><b>论文：</b>霍根在报告中表示，罗森布拉特对支付处理器的积极看法很大程度上是由他们的数字钱包产品推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Square's Cash App is continuing to leverage its valuable monetization playbook and PayPal is showing a renewed focus on Venmo using a similar strategy focusing&nbsp;on customer acquisition via new products such as&nbsp;crypto trading and&nbsp;credit card, the analyst noted.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，Square 的现金应用程序正在继续利用其有价值的货币化策略，而PayPal正在重新关注 Venmo，采用类似的策略，专注于通过加密货币交易和信用卡等新产品获取客户。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Square On Track to Beat User Estimate:</b>Square's&nbsp;Cash App&nbsp;is continuing to acquire customers at low customer acquisition cost and monetizing them quickly, Horgan said. The analyst expects first-quarter Cash App monthly average users to top the Street's 33.8 million estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>Square 有望超越用户预期：</b>霍根表示，Square 的现金应用程序继续以较低的客户获取成本获取客户，并快速将其货币化。该分析师预计第一季度 Cash App 月均用户将超过华尔街 3380 万的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Citing positive trends in U.S. retail sales, the analyst increased his gross payment volume estimate for the quarter and earnings per share estimate from 7 cents to 12 cents.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师援引美国零售销售的积极趋势，将本季度总支付量预期和每股收益预期从 7 美分上调至 12 美分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal to be Buoyed by Venmo, Product Launches:</b>Venmo is likely to top the $900 million revenue target for 2021, Horgan said.</p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal将受到 Venmo 产品发布的推动：</b>霍根表示，Venmo 可能会在 2021 年超过 9 亿美元的收入目标。</blockquote></p><p> \"Overall, we see upside risk driven by a laundry list of product launches in 2021 (i.e. Venmo crypto trading) that will positively impact PYPL's results and push shares higher,\" the analyst wrote in the note.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师在报告中写道：“总体而言，我们看到 2021 年一系列产品发布（即 Venmo 加密货币交易）带来的上行风险，这将对 PYPL 的业绩产生积极影响并推高股价。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fiserv To Hit Guidance:</b>Fiserv is positioned well to benefit during the COVID-19 pandemic reopening, Horgan said. Given current recovery rates, the analyst expects the company to hit the high end of its guided 8-12% internal revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote><b>Fiserv 将命中指南：</b>霍根表示，Fiserv 处于有利地位，可以在 COVID-19 大流行重新开放期间受益。鉴于目前的复苏速度，分析师预计该公司将达到指导的 8-12% 内部收入增长的上限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Payments Pursues Risk Neutral Strategy:</b>Global Payments is also a large beneficiary of the reopening, Rosenblatt said. The company's skew towards smaller sellers provides a positive decoupling of revenue growth from card network volume growth, it added.</p><p><blockquote><b>环球支付奉行风险中性策略：</b>罗森布拉特说，全球支付也是重新开放的一大受益者。它补充说，该公司对小型卖家的倾向提供了收入增长与信用卡网络销量增长的积极脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Further, the firm sees&nbsp;<b>Amazon.com,&nbsp;Inc.'s</b>&nbsp;AWS&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Alphabet Inc.</b>&nbsp;Google partnerships as positive catalysts in the long-term.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司认为<b>亚马逊公司</b>AWS和<b>Alphabet公司。</b>从长远来看，谷歌的合作伙伴关系是积极的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fidelity National Information Less Exposed to Reopening Tailwinds:</b>Fidelity National continues to be a name that&nbsp;is likely to be less exposed to tailwinds of the reopening, Horgan said.</p><p><blockquote><b>富达国家信息公司受重新开放的利好影响较小：</b>霍根表示，富达国民银行仍然是一个不太可能受到重新开放顺风影响的名字。</blockquote></p><p> \"In our view, outperformance in the banking segment is the biggest upside risk (strong pipeline expected to come online throughout '21),\" the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师表示：“我们认为，银行业的优异表现是最大的上行风险（预计整个 21 年将上线强大的管道）。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ab06f97db168ce3c05e434ff94f9b2\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"247\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Square, PayPal Are Top Picks In The Fintech Space Ahead Of Earnings<blockquote>为什么 Square 和PayPal是财报公布前金融科技领域的首选</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Square, PayPal Are Top Picks In The Fintech Space Ahead Of Earnings<blockquote>为什么 Square 和PayPal是财报公布前金融科技领域的首选</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-21 22:35</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e388dd7b580a775abca2bb0500cc3a0\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"375\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ahead of earnings from payment processing companies, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities picked his five favorite names in the space.</p><p><blockquote>在支付处理公司公布收益之前，罗森布拉特证券公司的一位分析师选出了他在该领域最喜欢的五个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ratings:</b>Analyst Sean Horgan maintained a Buy rating on&nbsp;<b>PayPal Holdings, Inc.</b>&nbsp;and increased the price target from $320 to $350.</p><p><blockquote><b>评级：</b>分析师肖恩·霍根维持买入评级<b>PayPal控股公司。</b>并将目标价从 320 美元上调至 350 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst maintained the Buy rating and $320 price target for&nbsp;<b>Square Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote>分析师维持买入评级和 320 美元目标价<b>广场公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> The analyst also maintained a Buy rating and $140 price target for&nbsp;<b>Fiserv&nbsp;Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师还维持买入评级和 140 美元目标价<b>Fiserv公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Horgan maintained&nbsp;<b>Global Payments Inc.</b>&nbsp;at Buy and nudged up the price target from $235 to $238.</p><p><blockquote>霍根维持<b>全球支付公司。</b>买入并将目标价从 235 美元上调至 238 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst rated&nbsp;<b>Fidelity National Information Servics&nbsp;Inc</b>&nbsp;a Neutral and increased the price. target from $140 to $146.</p><p><blockquote>分析师评级<b>富达国家信息服务公司</b>中性并提高了价格。目标从140美元到146美元。</blockquote></p><p> Horgan named Square and PayPal as his top picks in the run-up to the first-quarter earnings releases.</p><p><blockquote>霍根将 Square 和PayPal列为第一季度财报发布前的首选。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Theses:</b>Rosenblatt's positive view of payment processors is largely driven by their digital wallet offerings, Horgan said in the note.</p><p><blockquote><b>论文：</b>霍根在报告中表示，罗森布拉特对支付处理器的积极看法很大程度上是由他们的数字钱包产品推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Square's Cash App is continuing to leverage its valuable monetization playbook and PayPal is showing a renewed focus on Venmo using a similar strategy focusing&nbsp;on customer acquisition via new products such as&nbsp;crypto trading and&nbsp;credit card, the analyst noted.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，Square 的现金应用程序正在继续利用其有价值的货币化策略，而PayPal正在重新关注 Venmo，采用类似的策略，专注于通过加密货币交易和信用卡等新产品获取客户。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Square On Track to Beat User Estimate:</b>Square's&nbsp;Cash App&nbsp;is continuing to acquire customers at low customer acquisition cost and monetizing them quickly, Horgan said. The analyst expects first-quarter Cash App monthly average users to top the Street's 33.8 million estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>Square 有望超越用户预期：</b>霍根表示，Square 的现金应用程序继续以较低的客户获取成本获取客户，并快速将其货币化。该分析师预计第一季度 Cash App 月均用户将超过华尔街 3380 万的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Citing positive trends in U.S. retail sales, the analyst increased his gross payment volume estimate for the quarter and earnings per share estimate from 7 cents to 12 cents.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师援引美国零售销售的积极趋势，将本季度总支付量预期和每股收益预期从 7 美分上调至 12 美分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal to be Buoyed by Venmo, Product Launches:</b>Venmo is likely to top the $900 million revenue target for 2021, Horgan said.</p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal将受到 Venmo 产品发布的推动：</b>霍根表示，Venmo 可能会在 2021 年超过 9 亿美元的收入目标。</blockquote></p><p> \"Overall, we see upside risk driven by a laundry list of product launches in 2021 (i.e. Venmo crypto trading) that will positively impact PYPL's results and push shares higher,\" the analyst wrote in the note.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师在报告中写道：“总体而言，我们看到 2021 年一系列产品发布（即 Venmo 加密货币交易）带来的上行风险，这将对 PYPL 的业绩产生积极影响并推高股价。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fiserv To Hit Guidance:</b>Fiserv is positioned well to benefit during the COVID-19 pandemic reopening, Horgan said. Given current recovery rates, the analyst expects the company to hit the high end of its guided 8-12% internal revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote><b>Fiserv 将命中指南：</b>霍根表示，Fiserv 处于有利地位，可以在 COVID-19 大流行重新开放期间受益。鉴于目前的复苏速度，分析师预计该公司将达到指导的 8-12% 内部收入增长的上限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Payments Pursues Risk Neutral Strategy:</b>Global Payments is also a large beneficiary of the reopening, Rosenblatt said. The company's skew towards smaller sellers provides a positive decoupling of revenue growth from card network volume growth, it added.</p><p><blockquote><b>环球支付奉行风险中性策略：</b>罗森布拉特说，全球支付也是重新开放的一大受益者。它补充说，该公司对小型卖家的倾向提供了收入增长与信用卡网络销量增长的积极脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Further, the firm sees&nbsp;<b>Amazon.com,&nbsp;Inc.'s</b>&nbsp;AWS&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Alphabet Inc.</b>&nbsp;Google partnerships as positive catalysts in the long-term.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司认为<b>亚马逊公司</b>AWS和<b>Alphabet公司。</b>从长远来看，谷歌的合作伙伴关系是积极的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fidelity National Information Less Exposed to Reopening Tailwinds:</b>Fidelity National continues to be a name that&nbsp;is likely to be less exposed to tailwinds of the reopening, Horgan said.</p><p><blockquote><b>富达国家信息公司受重新开放的利好影响较小：</b>霍根表示，富达国民银行仍然是一个不太可能受到重新开放顺风影响的名字。</blockquote></p><p> \"In our view, outperformance in the banking segment is the biggest upside risk (strong pipeline expected to come online throughout '21),\" the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师表示：“我们认为，银行业的优异表现是最大的上行风险（预计整个 21 年将上线强大的管道）。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ab06f97db168ce3c05e434ff94f9b2\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"247\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129560929","content_text":"Ahead of earnings from payment processing companies, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities picked his five favorite names in the space.\nThe Ratings:Analyst Sean Horgan maintained a Buy rating on PayPal Holdings, Inc. and increased the price target from $320 to $350.\nThe analyst maintained the Buy rating and $320 price target for Square Inc.\nThe analyst also maintained a Buy rating and $140 price target for Fiserv Inc.\nHorgan maintained Global Payments Inc. at Buy and nudged up the price target from $235 to $238.\nThe analyst rated Fidelity National Information Servics Inc a Neutral and increased the price. target from $140 to $146.\nHorgan named Square and PayPal as his top picks in the run-up to the first-quarter earnings releases.\nThe Theses:Rosenblatt's positive view of payment processors is largely driven by their digital wallet offerings, Horgan said in the note.\nSquare's Cash App is continuing to leverage its valuable monetization playbook and PayPal is showing a renewed focus on Venmo using a similar strategy focusing on customer acquisition via new products such as crypto trading and credit card, the analyst noted.\nSquare On Track to Beat User Estimate:Square's Cash App is continuing to acquire customers at low customer acquisition cost and monetizing them quickly, Horgan said. The analyst expects first-quarter Cash App monthly average users to top the Street's 33.8 million estimate.\nCiting positive trends in U.S. retail sales, the analyst increased his gross payment volume estimate for the quarter and earnings per share estimate from 7 cents to 12 cents.\nPayPal to be Buoyed by Venmo, Product Launches:Venmo is likely to top the $900 million revenue target for 2021, Horgan said.\n\"Overall, we see upside risk driven by a laundry list of product launches in 2021 (i.e. Venmo crypto trading) that will positively impact PYPL's results and push shares higher,\" the analyst wrote in the note.\nFiserv To Hit Guidance:Fiserv is positioned well to benefit during the COVID-19 pandemic reopening, Horgan said. Given current recovery rates, the analyst expects the company to hit the high end of its guided 8-12% internal revenue growth.\nGlobal Payments Pursues Risk Neutral Strategy:Global Payments is also a large beneficiary of the reopening, Rosenblatt said. The company's skew towards smaller sellers provides a positive decoupling of revenue growth from card network volume growth, it added.\nFurther, the firm sees Amazon.com, Inc.'s AWS and Alphabet Inc. Google partnerships as positive catalysts in the long-term.\nFidelity National Information Less Exposed to Reopening Tailwinds:Fidelity National continues to be a name that is likely to be less exposed to tailwinds of the reopening, Horgan said.\n\"In our view, outperformance in the banking segment is the biggest upside risk (strong pipeline expected to come online throughout '21),\" the analyst said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9,"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358408182,"gmtCreate":1616719957546,"gmtModify":1634524391490,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571044813043268","idStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"trap?","listText":"trap?","text":"trap?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358408182","repostId":"1124742259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124742259","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616686649,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1124742259?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-25 23:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green<blockquote>波音股价短期从红色升至绿色</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124742259","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green in Thursday trading,As Boeing may restart 787","content":"<p>Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green&nbsp;in Thursday trading,As&nbsp;Boeing may restart 787 dreamliner deliveries Friday, people say.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，波音股价在周四交易中短期从红色升至绿色，因为波音可能会在周五重启 787 梦想客机的交付。</blockquote></p><p>In addition,Boeing stock price target was&nbsp;raised to $265 from $210 at BofA Securities.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美国银行证券将波音股价目标从 210 美元上调至 265 美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04e130d61237ab07e9222dd22715ac6c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green<blockquote>波音股价短期从红色升至绿色</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoeing shares rose in the short term from red to green<blockquote>波音股价短期从红色升至绿色</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-25 23:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green&nbsp;in Thursday trading,As&nbsp;Boeing may restart 787 dreamliner deliveries Friday, people say.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，波音股价在周四交易中短期从红色升至绿色，因为波音可能会在周五重启 787 梦想客机的交付。</blockquote></p><p>In addition,Boeing stock price target was&nbsp;raised to $265 from $210 at BofA Securities.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美国银行证券将波音股价目标从 210 美元上调至 265 美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04e130d61237ab07e9222dd22715ac6c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124742259","content_text":"Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green in Thursday trading,As Boeing may restart 787 dreamliner deliveries Friday, people say.In addition,Boeing stock price target was raised to $265 from $210 at BofA Securities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358401074,"gmtCreate":1616719886598,"gmtModify":1634524392414,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571044813043268","idStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358401074","repostId":"1186019716","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389252055,"gmtCreate":1612780911677,"gmtModify":1703764907560,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571044813043268","idStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389252055","repostId":"1105339151","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105339151","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612778898,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1105339151?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Individual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了--这对股市意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105339151","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop\nLook who’s back.\nAfter a long absence, active indiv","content":"<p>There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop</p><p><blockquote>零售业复兴不仅仅是游戏驿站</blockquote></p><p> Look who’s back.</p><p><blockquote>看看谁回来了。</blockquote></p><p> After a long absence, active individual investors have returned. While breakneck and foolhardy trading activity in shares of GameStop Corp.GME,+19.20%has dominated the headlines, unanswered questions remain as to whether a broader resurgence in retail trading will last and what it will mean for the stock market as U.S. benchmark indexes march to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>久违之后，活跃的个人投资者又回来了。尽管游戏驿站股价的鲁莽和鲁莽交易活动占据了头条新闻，但随着美国基准指数创下历史新高，零售交易的更广泛复苏是否会持续下去，以及这对股市意味着什么，仍有未解之谜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The comeback</b></p><p><blockquote><b>东山再起</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s been a long time coming.</p><p><blockquote>已经过去很久了。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market put in a historic rally over the past decade “without any prominent retail interest in it,” said Chris Konstantinos, chief investment strategist at RiverFront Investment Group, in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>河滨投资集团（RiverFront Investment Group）首席投资策略师克里斯-康斯坦丁诺斯（Chris Konstantinos）在接受采访时说，股市在过去十年中出现了历史性的反弹，“但散户对此却没有任何明显的兴趣”。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that total bond fund flows have outpaced stock flows by nearly $3 trillion since 2007. In fact, individual investors appeared interested in almost anything else, from real estate to cryptocurrencies, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，自2007年以来，债券资金流量总额已超过股票流量近3万亿美元。康斯坦丁诺斯说，事实上，个人投资者似乎对几乎任何其他东西都感兴趣，从房地产到加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> A shift got under way last year as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Sequential growth in accounts at brokers such as Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%that cater to individual investors “was remarkable” at the end of the second quarter of 2020 and was followed by a major surge in growth in the following quarter, said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Feb. 2 note.</p><p><blockquote>随着冠状病毒疫情的蔓延，去年发生了转变。加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）美国股票策略主管洛里-卡尔瓦西纳（Lori Calvasina）在2月2日的一份报告中说，嘉信理财公司（Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW）等面向个人投资者的经纪商账户在2020年第二季度末实现了“显著增长”，随后在接下来的一个季度实现了大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time Google searches for “day trading” were also on the rise, she noted (see charts below).</p><p><blockquote>她指出，与此同时，谷歌对 “日内交易 ”的搜索量也在上升（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abaf0f0e954b8c180c43870b72f55252\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"655\"><span>RBC CAPITAL MARKETS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>加拿大皇家银行资本市场</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina and others acknowledged that a combination of lockdown-related boredom and stimulus checks from the U.S. government likely played a role in the uptick in individual investing interest.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳和其他人承认，与封锁相关的无聊和美国政府的刺激检查可能在个人投资兴趣上升中发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> The jury is out on whether that enthusiasm will endure, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, in an interview. It’s unclear how much of the pickup in retail trading merely reflects individuals throwing extra money via stimulus checks at the market, he said.</p><p><blockquote>内德·戴维斯研究集团（Ned Davis Research Group）美国首席策略师埃德·克利索尔德（Ed Clissold）在接受采访时表示，这种热情是否会持续下去，目前还没有定论。他说，目前还不清楚零售交易的回升有多少仅仅反映了个人通过刺激支票向市场投入了额外资金。</blockquote></p><p> That sort of trading feels more like gambling than investing, he said, noting that “frothy” market action tends to fade quickly away.</p><p><blockquote>他说，这种交易感觉更像是赌博，而不是投资，并指出 “泡沫 ”市场行为往往会很快消失。</blockquote></p><p> No doubt, day traders who jumped on the GameStop rally in a big way and listened to pleas on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to hold the line were left to suffer ugly losses. Some market watchers fear that the bubble-like activity in so-called meme stocks could end up scaring away individual investors, nipping any resurgence in the bud.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，那些在游戏驿站反弹中大举跳水，并在 Reddit 的 WallStreetBets 论坛上听取了守住阵容的呼吁的日内交易者，却遭受了惨重的损失。一些市场观察人士担心，所谓模因股票的泡沫般的活动最终可能会吓跑个人投资者，将任何复苏扼杀在萌芽状态。</blockquote></p><p> But others argued that many individual investors, whose ranks aren’t made up soley of rapid-fire day traders, were likely to stick around.</p><p><blockquote>但也有人认为，许多个人投资者很可能会留下来，他们的队伍中不仅仅是快速反应的日内交易者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Structural change’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“结构变革”</b></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina said RBC suspects a “structural change may be afoot and that retail investors are likely to remain bigger players in the U.S. equity market going forward.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示，加拿大皇家银行怀疑 “结构性变化可能正在发生，散户投资者很可能仍将是美国股市未来更大的参与者”。</blockquote></p><p> If so, that will require an attitude adjustment by Wall Street pros, who got used to paying little attention to individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，这将需要华尔街专业人士调整态度，他们已经习惯于很少关注个人投资者。</blockquote></p><p> After all, powerful waves of passive and systematic investment had rendered individual investors largely irrelevant to analysts cooking up market forecasts, wrote strategists at Société Générale, in a Thursday note.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行策略师在周四的一份报告中写道，毕竟，强大的被动和系统性投资浪潮使得个人投资者与分析师做出市场预测基本上无关紧要。</blockquote></p><p> But the market volatility created by the GameStop situation served as a wake-up call, the analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，游戏驿站局势造成的市场波动是一个唤醒看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> While GameStop and other heavily shorted names soared, hedge funds and other investors were seen liquidating long positions elsewhere, to take profits and cover losses, putting pressure on equities markets. Major benchmarks ended January on a sour note, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.30%,S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.39%and Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,+0.57%logging their largest weekly declines since October.</p><p><blockquote>尽管游戏驿站和其他被严重做空的股票飙升，但对冲基金和其他投资者却在其他地方清算多头头寸，以获利回吐，给股市带来压力。主要基准在 1 月份收盘时表现不佳，道琼斯工业平均指数 (DJIA) +0.30%、标准普尔 500SPX 指数 +0.39% 和纳斯达克综合指数 (CompositeCOMP) +0.57% 录得自 10 月份以来的最大单周跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks roared back in the past week, however, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaqscoring all-time highsas GameStop tumbled more than 80%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国股市上周大幅反弹，标普500和纳斯达克指数创下历史新高，游戏驿站股市下跌超过 80%。</blockquote></p><p> The SocGen analysts said increased retail interest in the markets is part of a broader trend that has seen individual investors driving demand for investments that take environmental, social and corporate governance, or ESG, standards into account.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行分析师表示，散户对市场兴趣的增加是更广泛趋势的一部分，个人投资者推动了对考虑环境、社会和公司治理（ESG）标准的投资的需求。</blockquote></p><p> “Rather than criticizing retail investors and their behavioral pattens, it is better to slot them into the money equation,” they wrote. “After all, it is not only office workers who are locked down at home on snowy days but also very active day traders with access to inexpensive platforms.”</p><p><blockquote>“他们写道：”与其批评散户投资者及其行为模式，不如将他们纳入金钱等式。“毕竟，下雪天被锁在家里的不仅仅是上班族，还有非常活跃的日内交易者，他们可以使用廉价的平台”。</blockquote></p><p> Cabin fever, however, is hardly the only factor seen driving the renewed interest in the market by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，房车热并不是推动个人投资者对市场重新产生兴趣的唯一因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Leveling the field</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平整场地</b></blockquote></p><p> Some individual investors who previously shunned equities might finally be succumbing to the notion that ultralow yields on bonds and elsewhere leave little alternative to the stock market. Equities still look attractive when it comes to dividend or earnings yields, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>一些此前回避股票的个人投资者可能最终会屈服于这样一种观念：债券和其他领域的超低收益率使得股市几乎没有其他选择。康斯坦丁诺斯表示，就股息或收益收益率而言，股票看起来仍然很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moreover, there’s the leveling of the playing field between institutional and individual investors over the past few decades. Regulation FD (for “full disclosure’) and other regulatory changes as well as the rise of low-fee trading platforms have put individual investors “on a closer footing to institutional investors than at any other time in history,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在过去的几十年里，机构投资者和个人投资者之间的竞争环境也变得更加公平。他说，监管 FD（“全面披露”）和其他监管变化以及低费用交易平台的兴起，使个人投资者 “比历史上任何时候都更接近机构投资者”。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, some market watchers have argued that the conventional branding of individual investors as the “dumb money” looks increasingly misguided, particularly after the GameStop episode showed supposedly “smart money” investors shorting more than 100% of the company’s stock, leaving them wide open to a painful short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，一些市场观察人士认为，将个人投资者贴上 “傻钱 ”的传统标签看起来越来越被误导，尤其是在游戏驿站事件显示，所谓的 “聪明钱 ”投资者做空了公司股票 100% 以上，使他们很容易遭受痛苦的挤空。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina noted that some of the more well-known trades pursued by individual investors over the past year — buying stocks in the middle of a recession, buying airlines and cruise lines last summer, and implementing short squeezes this winter — come from a playbook that’s been largely abandoned by institutional investors over the past decade in favor of growth-, momentum- and quality-investing strategies.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳指出，过去一年中，个人投资者进行的一些比较知名的交易--在经济衰退中购买股票、去年夏天购买航空公司和邮轮公司以及今年冬天实施空头挤压--都来自于过去十年中机构投资者基本上放弃的策略，转而采用增长、动量和质量投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> On that point, highly shorted names have outperformed the market since the March 23 lows when it comes to both small- and large-cap stocks, a development that typically occurs after the market has put in a mid-recession low, she noted.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，在这一点上，自 3 月 23 日低点以来，小盘股和大盘股的表现都优于市场，这种情况通常发生在市场跌至衰退中期低点之后。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the frenzy in retail trading that surrounded the short squeeze on GameStop and a handful of other heavily shorted small-cap stocks raised a red flag to investors on the lookout for the sort of froth that signals a rally is entering the sort of euphoric phase typically followed by a pullback.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，围绕游戏驿站和其他少数严重做空的小盘股的零售交易狂热向投资者发出了危险信号，他们正在寻找那种预示着反弹正在进入那种欣快阶段的泡沫，通常随后是回调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Next leg?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一段？</b></blockquote></p><p> While that may prove to be the case in the near term, some investors contend a sustained pickup in active individual investing interest could help drive the next leg of a bull market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然短期内情况可能会如此，但一些投资者认为，个人投资兴趣的持续回升可能有助于推动牛市的下一阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investors could continue to fuel interest in more value-oriented, smaller capitalization and higher volatility names, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>康斯坦丁诺斯表示，个人投资者可能会继续对更注重价值、市值较小、波动性较高的股票产生兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> And sustained interest in individual securities could mean more “dispersion,” or variation in returns between individual stocks and sectors, said Clissold — an element that was missing over the past decade to the pain of active fund managers.</p><p><blockquote>克利索尔德说，对个股证券的持续兴趣可能意味着更多的 “分散”，即个股和行业之间的回报率差异--这是主动型基金经理在过去十年中一直缺少的一个要素。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina argued that retail interest in specific stocks is likely to ebb and flow, as it has done over the past year, but probably won’t fade away.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳认为，零售商对特定股票的兴趣可能会像过去一年一样时好时坏，但可能不会消退。</blockquote></p><p> “Unless the door closes (i.e. through a major regulatory change), we fail to see why retail investor interest in trading specific names will completely go way given how elevated cash on the sidelines is among consumers,” she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“她写道：”除非大门关闭（即通过重大监管变化），否则我们无法理解为什么散户投资者对交易特定名称的兴趣会完全消失，因为消费者的场外现金如此之高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Individual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了--这对股市意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIndividual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了--这对股市意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 18:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop</p><p><blockquote>零售业复兴不仅仅是游戏驿站</blockquote></p><p> Look who’s back.</p><p><blockquote>看看谁回来了。</blockquote></p><p> After a long absence, active individual investors have returned. While breakneck and foolhardy trading activity in shares of GameStop Corp.GME,+19.20%has dominated the headlines, unanswered questions remain as to whether a broader resurgence in retail trading will last and what it will mean for the stock market as U.S. benchmark indexes march to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>久违之后，活跃的个人投资者又回来了。尽管游戏驿站股价的鲁莽和鲁莽交易活动占据了头条新闻，但随着美国基准指数创下历史新高，零售交易的更广泛复苏是否会持续下去，以及这对股市意味着什么，仍有未解之谜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The comeback</b></p><p><blockquote><b>东山再起</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s been a long time coming.</p><p><blockquote>已经过去很久了。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market put in a historic rally over the past decade “without any prominent retail interest in it,” said Chris Konstantinos, chief investment strategist at RiverFront Investment Group, in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>河滨投资集团（RiverFront Investment Group）首席投资策略师克里斯-康斯坦丁诺斯（Chris Konstantinos）在接受采访时说，股市在过去十年中出现了历史性的反弹，“但散户对此却没有任何明显的兴趣”。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that total bond fund flows have outpaced stock flows by nearly $3 trillion since 2007. In fact, individual investors appeared interested in almost anything else, from real estate to cryptocurrencies, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，自2007年以来，债券资金流量总额已超过股票流量近3万亿美元。康斯坦丁诺斯说，事实上，个人投资者似乎对几乎任何其他东西都感兴趣，从房地产到加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> A shift got under way last year as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Sequential growth in accounts at brokers such as Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%that cater to individual investors “was remarkable” at the end of the second quarter of 2020 and was followed by a major surge in growth in the following quarter, said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Feb. 2 note.</p><p><blockquote>随着冠状病毒疫情的蔓延，去年发生了转变。加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）美国股票策略主管洛里-卡尔瓦西纳（Lori Calvasina）在2月2日的一份报告中说，嘉信理财公司（Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW）等面向个人投资者的经纪商账户在2020年第二季度末实现了“显著增长”，随后在接下来的一个季度实现了大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time Google searches for “day trading” were also on the rise, she noted (see charts below).</p><p><blockquote>她指出，与此同时，谷歌对 “日内交易 ”的搜索量也在上升（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abaf0f0e954b8c180c43870b72f55252\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"655\"><span>RBC CAPITAL MARKETS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>加拿大皇家银行资本市场</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina and others acknowledged that a combination of lockdown-related boredom and stimulus checks from the U.S. government likely played a role in the uptick in individual investing interest.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳和其他人承认，与封锁相关的无聊和美国政府的刺激检查可能在个人投资兴趣上升中发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> The jury is out on whether that enthusiasm will endure, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, in an interview. It’s unclear how much of the pickup in retail trading merely reflects individuals throwing extra money via stimulus checks at the market, he said.</p><p><blockquote>内德·戴维斯研究集团（Ned Davis Research Group）美国首席策略师埃德·克利索尔德（Ed Clissold）在接受采访时表示，这种热情是否会持续下去，目前还没有定论。他说，目前还不清楚零售交易的回升有多少仅仅反映了个人通过刺激支票向市场投入了额外资金。</blockquote></p><p> That sort of trading feels more like gambling than investing, he said, noting that “frothy” market action tends to fade quickly away.</p><p><blockquote>他说，这种交易感觉更像是赌博，而不是投资，并指出 “泡沫 ”市场行为往往会很快消失。</blockquote></p><p> No doubt, day traders who jumped on the GameStop rally in a big way and listened to pleas on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to hold the line were left to suffer ugly losses. Some market watchers fear that the bubble-like activity in so-called meme stocks could end up scaring away individual investors, nipping any resurgence in the bud.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，那些在游戏驿站反弹中大举跳水，并在 Reddit 的 WallStreetBets 论坛上听取了守住阵容的呼吁的日内交易者，却遭受了惨重的损失。一些市场观察人士担心，所谓模因股票的泡沫般的活动最终可能会吓跑个人投资者，将任何复苏扼杀在萌芽状态。</blockquote></p><p> But others argued that many individual investors, whose ranks aren’t made up soley of rapid-fire day traders, were likely to stick around.</p><p><blockquote>但也有人认为，许多个人投资者很可能会留下来，他们的队伍中不仅仅是快速反应的日内交易者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Structural change’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“结构变革”</b></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina said RBC suspects a “structural change may be afoot and that retail investors are likely to remain bigger players in the U.S. equity market going forward.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示，加拿大皇家银行怀疑 “结构性变化可能正在发生，散户投资者很可能仍将是美国股市未来更大的参与者”。</blockquote></p><p> If so, that will require an attitude adjustment by Wall Street pros, who got used to paying little attention to individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，这将需要华尔街专业人士调整态度，他们已经习惯于很少关注个人投资者。</blockquote></p><p> After all, powerful waves of passive and systematic investment had rendered individual investors largely irrelevant to analysts cooking up market forecasts, wrote strategists at Société Générale, in a Thursday note.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行策略师在周四的一份报告中写道，毕竟，强大的被动和系统性投资浪潮使得个人投资者与分析师做出市场预测基本上无关紧要。</blockquote></p><p> But the market volatility created by the GameStop situation served as a wake-up call, the analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，游戏驿站局势造成的市场波动是一个唤醒看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> While GameStop and other heavily shorted names soared, hedge funds and other investors were seen liquidating long positions elsewhere, to take profits and cover losses, putting pressure on equities markets. Major benchmarks ended January on a sour note, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.30%,S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.39%and Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,+0.57%logging their largest weekly declines since October.</p><p><blockquote>尽管游戏驿站和其他被严重做空的股票飙升，但对冲基金和其他投资者却在其他地方清算多头头寸，以获利回吐，给股市带来压力。主要基准在 1 月份收盘时表现不佳，道琼斯工业平均指数 (DJIA) +0.30%、标准普尔 500SPX 指数 +0.39% 和纳斯达克综合指数 (CompositeCOMP) +0.57% 录得自 10 月份以来的最大单周跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks roared back in the past week, however, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaqscoring all-time highsas GameStop tumbled more than 80%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国股市上周大幅反弹，标普500和纳斯达克指数创下历史新高，游戏驿站股市下跌超过 80%。</blockquote></p><p> The SocGen analysts said increased retail interest in the markets is part of a broader trend that has seen individual investors driving demand for investments that take environmental, social and corporate governance, or ESG, standards into account.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行分析师表示，散户对市场兴趣的增加是更广泛趋势的一部分，个人投资者推动了对考虑环境、社会和公司治理（ESG）标准的投资的需求。</blockquote></p><p> “Rather than criticizing retail investors and their behavioral pattens, it is better to slot them into the money equation,” they wrote. “After all, it is not only office workers who are locked down at home on snowy days but also very active day traders with access to inexpensive platforms.”</p><p><blockquote>“他们写道：”与其批评散户投资者及其行为模式，不如将他们纳入金钱等式。“毕竟，下雪天被锁在家里的不仅仅是上班族，还有非常活跃的日内交易者，他们可以使用廉价的平台”。</blockquote></p><p> Cabin fever, however, is hardly the only factor seen driving the renewed interest in the market by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，房车热并不是推动个人投资者对市场重新产生兴趣的唯一因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Leveling the field</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平整场地</b></blockquote></p><p> Some individual investors who previously shunned equities might finally be succumbing to the notion that ultralow yields on bonds and elsewhere leave little alternative to the stock market. Equities still look attractive when it comes to dividend or earnings yields, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>一些此前回避股票的个人投资者可能最终会屈服于这样一种观念：债券和其他领域的超低收益率使得股市几乎没有其他选择。康斯坦丁诺斯表示，就股息或收益收益率而言，股票看起来仍然很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moreover, there’s the leveling of the playing field between institutional and individual investors over the past few decades. Regulation FD (for “full disclosure’) and other regulatory changes as well as the rise of low-fee trading platforms have put individual investors “on a closer footing to institutional investors than at any other time in history,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在过去的几十年里，机构投资者和个人投资者之间的竞争环境也变得更加公平。他说，监管 FD（“全面披露”）和其他监管变化以及低费用交易平台的兴起，使个人投资者 “比历史上任何时候都更接近机构投资者”。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, some market watchers have argued that the conventional branding of individual investors as the “dumb money” looks increasingly misguided, particularly after the GameStop episode showed supposedly “smart money” investors shorting more than 100% of the company’s stock, leaving them wide open to a painful short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，一些市场观察人士认为，将个人投资者贴上 “傻钱 ”的传统标签看起来越来越被误导，尤其是在游戏驿站事件显示，所谓的 “聪明钱 ”投资者做空了公司股票 100% 以上，使他们很容易遭受痛苦的挤空。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina noted that some of the more well-known trades pursued by individual investors over the past year — buying stocks in the middle of a recession, buying airlines and cruise lines last summer, and implementing short squeezes this winter — come from a playbook that’s been largely abandoned by institutional investors over the past decade in favor of growth-, momentum- and quality-investing strategies.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳指出，过去一年中，个人投资者进行的一些比较知名的交易--在经济衰退中购买股票、去年夏天购买航空公司和邮轮公司以及今年冬天实施空头挤压--都来自于过去十年中机构投资者基本上放弃的策略，转而采用增长、动量和质量投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> On that point, highly shorted names have outperformed the market since the March 23 lows when it comes to both small- and large-cap stocks, a development that typically occurs after the market has put in a mid-recession low, she noted.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，在这一点上，自 3 月 23 日低点以来，小盘股和大盘股的表现都优于市场，这种情况通常发生在市场跌至衰退中期低点之后。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the frenzy in retail trading that surrounded the short squeeze on GameStop and a handful of other heavily shorted small-cap stocks raised a red flag to investors on the lookout for the sort of froth that signals a rally is entering the sort of euphoric phase typically followed by a pullback.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，围绕游戏驿站和其他少数严重做空的小盘股的零售交易狂热向投资者发出了危险信号，他们正在寻找那种预示着反弹正在进入那种欣快阶段的泡沫，通常随后是回调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Next leg?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一段？</b></blockquote></p><p> While that may prove to be the case in the near term, some investors contend a sustained pickup in active individual investing interest could help drive the next leg of a bull market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然短期内情况可能会如此，但一些投资者认为，个人投资兴趣的持续回升可能有助于推动牛市的下一阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investors could continue to fuel interest in more value-oriented, smaller capitalization and higher volatility names, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>康斯坦丁诺斯表示，个人投资者可能会继续对更注重价值、市值较小、波动性较高的股票产生兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> And sustained interest in individual securities could mean more “dispersion,” or variation in returns between individual stocks and sectors, said Clissold — an element that was missing over the past decade to the pain of active fund managers.</p><p><blockquote>克利索尔德说，对个股证券的持续兴趣可能意味着更多的 “分散”，即个股和行业之间的回报率差异--这是主动型基金经理在过去十年中一直缺少的一个要素。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina argued that retail interest in specific stocks is likely to ebb and flow, as it has done over the past year, but probably won’t fade away.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳认为，零售商对特定股票的兴趣可能会像过去一年一样时好时坏，但可能不会消退。</blockquote></p><p> “Unless the door closes (i.e. through a major regulatory change), we fail to see why retail investor interest in trading specific names will completely go way given how elevated cash on the sidelines is among consumers,” she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“她写道：”除非大门关闭（即通过重大监管变化），否则我们无法理解为什么散户投资者对交易特定名称的兴趣会完全消失，因为消费者的场外现金如此之高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/individual-investors-are-back-heres-what-it-means-for-the-stock-market-11612557558?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GME":"游戏驿站",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/individual-investors-are-back-heres-what-it-means-for-the-stock-market-11612557558?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1105339151","content_text":"There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop\nLook who’s back.\nAfter a long absence, active individual investors have returned. While breakneck and foolhardy trading activity in shares of GameStop Corp.GME,+19.20%has dominated the headlines, unanswered questions remain as to whether a broader resurgence in retail trading will last and what it will mean for the stock market as U.S. benchmark indexes march to all-time highs.\nThe comeback\nIt’s been a long time coming.\nThe stock market put in a historic rally over the past decade “without any prominent retail interest in it,” said Chris Konstantinos, chief investment strategist at RiverFront Investment Group, in an interview.\nHe noted that total bond fund flows have outpaced stock flows by nearly $3 trillion since 2007. In fact, individual investors appeared interested in almost anything else, from real estate to cryptocurrencies, Konstantinos said.\nA shift got under way last year as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Sequential growth in accounts at brokers such as Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%that cater to individual investors “was remarkable” at the end of the second quarter of 2020 and was followed by a major surge in growth in the following quarter, said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Feb. 2 note.\nAt the same time Google searches for “day trading” were also on the rise, she noted (see charts below).\nRBC CAPITAL MARKETS\nCalvasina and others acknowledged that a combination of lockdown-related boredom and stimulus checks from the U.S. government likely played a role in the uptick in individual investing interest.\nThe jury is out on whether that enthusiasm will endure, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, in an interview. It’s unclear how much of the pickup in retail trading merely reflects individuals throwing extra money via stimulus checks at the market, he said.\nThat sort of trading feels more like gambling than investing, he said, noting that “frothy” market action tends to fade quickly away.\nNo doubt, day traders who jumped on the GameStop rally in a big way and listened to pleas on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to hold the line were left to suffer ugly losses. Some market watchers fear that the bubble-like activity in so-called meme stocks could end up scaring away individual investors, nipping any resurgence in the bud.\nBut others argued that many individual investors, whose ranks aren’t made up soley of rapid-fire day traders, were likely to stick around.\n‘Structural change’\nCalvasina said RBC suspects a “structural change may be afoot and that retail investors are likely to remain bigger players in the U.S. equity market going forward.”\nIf so, that will require an attitude adjustment by Wall Street pros, who got used to paying little attention to individual investors.\nAfter all, powerful waves of passive and systematic investment had rendered individual investors largely irrelevant to analysts cooking up market forecasts, wrote strategists at Société Générale, in a Thursday note.\nBut the market volatility created by the GameStop situation served as a wake-up call, the analysts said.\nWhile GameStop and other heavily shorted names soared, hedge funds and other investors were seen liquidating long positions elsewhere, to take profits and cover losses, putting pressure on equities markets. Major benchmarks ended January on a sour note, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.30%,S&P 500SPX,+0.39%and Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,+0.57%logging their largest weekly declines since October.\nU.S. stocks roared back in the past week, however, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaqscoring all-time highsas GameStop tumbled more than 80%.\nThe SocGen analysts said increased retail interest in the markets is part of a broader trend that has seen individual investors driving demand for investments that take environmental, social and corporate governance, or ESG, standards into account.\n“Rather than criticizing retail investors and their behavioral pattens, it is better to slot them into the money equation,” they wrote. “After all, it is not only office workers who are locked down at home on snowy days but also very active day traders with access to inexpensive platforms.”\nCabin fever, however, is hardly the only factor seen driving the renewed interest in the market by individual investors.\nLeveling the field\nSome individual investors who previously shunned equities might finally be succumbing to the notion that ultralow yields on bonds and elsewhere leave little alternative to the stock market. Equities still look attractive when it comes to dividend or earnings yields, Konstantinos said.\nMoreover, there’s the leveling of the playing field between institutional and individual investors over the past few decades. Regulation FD (for “full disclosure’) and other regulatory changes as well as the rise of low-fee trading platforms have put individual investors “on a closer footing to institutional investors than at any other time in history,” he said.\nIndeed, some market watchers have argued that the conventional branding of individual investors as the “dumb money” looks increasingly misguided, particularly after the GameStop episode showed supposedly “smart money” investors shorting more than 100% of the company’s stock, leaving them wide open to a painful short squeeze.\nCalvasina noted that some of the more well-known trades pursued by individual investors over the past year — buying stocks in the middle of a recession, buying airlines and cruise lines last summer, and implementing short squeezes this winter — come from a playbook that’s been largely abandoned by institutional investors over the past decade in favor of growth-, momentum- and quality-investing strategies.\nOn that point, highly shorted names have outperformed the market since the March 23 lows when it comes to both small- and large-cap stocks, a development that typically occurs after the market has put in a mid-recession low, she noted.\nStill, the frenzy in retail trading that surrounded the short squeeze on GameStop and a handful of other heavily shorted small-cap stocks raised a red flag to investors on the lookout for the sort of froth that signals a rally is entering the sort of euphoric phase typically followed by a pullback.\nNext leg?\nWhile that may prove to be the case in the near term, some investors contend a sustained pickup in active individual investing interest could help drive the next leg of a bull market.\nIndividual investors could continue to fuel interest in more value-oriented, smaller capitalization and higher volatility names, Konstantinos said.\nAnd sustained interest in individual securities could mean more “dispersion,” or variation in returns between individual stocks and sectors, said Clissold — an element that was missing over the past decade to the pain of active fund managers.\nCalvasina argued that retail interest in specific stocks is likely to ebb and flow, as it has done over the past year, but probably won’t fade away.\n“Unless the door closes (i.e. through a major regulatory change), we fail to see why retail investor interest in trading specific names will completely go way given how elevated cash on the sidelines is among consumers,” she wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317654220,"gmtCreate":1612447942460,"gmtModify":1703762016113,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571044813043268","idStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317654220","repostId":"1162866028","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2072,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317652476,"gmtCreate":1612447809695,"gmtModify":1703762014082,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571044813043268","idStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317652476","repostId":"2108719145","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":167347298,"gmtCreate":1624249498614,"gmtModify":1634008887271,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571044813043268","authorIdStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"APPL","listText":"APPL","text":"APPL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167347298","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。</li><li>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。</li><li>从技术分析的角度来看，股价正在遵循上升的三角形模式，并正朝着137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News 公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司 (AAPL) 的股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。由基本面支撑的出色回报。特别是，我想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone手机占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务成熟（增长率低）；其次，它过去是（现在仍然是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，庞大的iPhone用户基础（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果已经能够有效地实现其收入来源的多元化，目前呈现以下结构。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看这些部分中的每一个：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>于二零一六年至二零二零年，iPhone分部以0.20%的复合年增长率增长，并由占总销售额的63.4%（二零一六年）变为51%（「TTM」）。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）iPhone细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%，这得益于具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列，以及来自中国的有趣数据。我相信向5G的过渡将是这一细分市场增长的主要驱动力。通过这种方式，我想报告第二季度盈利看涨期权的部分成绩单。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户正在加速采用iPhone 12和5G作为其业务未来的关键平台。例如，达美航空公司正在将 iPhone 12 和 5G 连接交到空乘人员手中，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的 Openreach 已开始为数万名现场工程师配备 iPhone 12，以加快他们向全国各地家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到仅30秒，这主要是通过从PC站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高了他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2、iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad 细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016 年为 9.6%，而 TTM 为 9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。以下是iPad细分市场过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了新一代iPad的很多实现方式。不过，我也不得不承认，在同一片海里游泳的还有一个大玩家，新款2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一个观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（而目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. Mac</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少保持不变，2016年为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>由M1芯片驱动的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我个人尝试了新一代Mac电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常清楚如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部以28.78%的复合年增长率增长，并从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占总销售额的10.8%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果手表在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车，救了你的命，不错吧？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我看不到后者的市场，但我可能错了）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部以21.9%的复合年增长率增长，并由二零一六年占总销售额的11.3%变为占总销售额的18.6%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。新服务苹果电视+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信未来服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度盈利看涨期权中推断出的一个有趣的部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基数持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店的交易账户和付费账户数量在 9 月份季度创下历史新高，我们每个地区的付费账户都增长了两位数。第三，付费订阅量连续增长超过3500万，我们现在平台上的所有服务的付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。公允价值是一个经过算法调整的价值，考虑了基本面和技术面的不同因素（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务状况，因为我将R&amp;D费用资本化，摊销年限为3年。我不认为在苹果的情况下，R&amp;D是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贴现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本案例场景</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本案例场景。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G转型驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 Mac细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 12%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 7.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况场景</i>: 生意火爆!在最佳情况下，我再次将我为基本情况描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，然而，除此之外，我还看到了中国更大的市场渗透率。在过去5年中，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额跃升了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 14%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 9.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏情况</i>:嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权喜欢“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长率略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设第一年的增长率为10%，第二年至第五年的CAGR为3.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果带着苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下都分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>灵敏度分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本案例场景的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形模式。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价前进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果出现这种情况，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，按原样理解）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够提前几年发现问题并解决问题。通过观察在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以说该股票目前被高估了，但没有那么高。对于关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代表。考虑到这一点，我认为没有理由恐慌，然而，我也确实看到了市场即将出现的调整。许多技术指标和基本面指标都告诉我，目前市场过于沉重（即使标准普尔500可能会走高，也许在4400点区域）。总之，我不打算平掉我的全部苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平掉其中的 60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。</li><li>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。</li><li>从技术分析的角度来看，股价正在遵循上升的三角形模式，并正朝着137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News 公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司 (AAPL) 的股价在过去五年中上涨了 449%，超过了标普500同期 102% 的涨幅。由基本面支撑的出色回报。特别是，我想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone手机占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务成熟（增长率低）；其次，它过去是（现在仍然是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，庞大的iPhone用户基础（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果已经能够有效地实现其收入来源的多元化，目前呈现以下结构。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看这些部分中的每一个：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>于二零一六年至二零二零年，iPhone分部以0.20%的复合年增长率增长，并由占总销售额的63.4%（二零一六年）变为51%（「TTM」）。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）iPhone细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%，这得益于具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列，以及来自中国的有趣数据。我相信向5G的过渡将是这一细分市场增长的主要驱动力。通过这种方式，我想报告第二季度盈利看涨期权的部分成绩单。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户正在加速采用iPhone 12和5G作为其业务未来的关键平台。例如，达美航空公司正在将 iPhone 12 和 5G 连接交到空乘人员手中，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的 Openreach 已开始为数万名现场工程师配备 iPhone 12，以加快他们向全国各地家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到仅30秒，这主要是通过从PC站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高了他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2、iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad 细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016 年为 9.6%，而 TTM 为 9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。以下是iPad细分市场过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了新一代iPad的很多实现方式。不过，我也不得不承认，在同一片海里游泳的还有一个大玩家，新款2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一个观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（而目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. Mac</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场占总销售额的比例或多或少保持不变，2016年为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>由M1芯片驱动的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我个人尝试了新一代Mac电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常清楚如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部以28.78%的复合年增长率增长，并从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占总销售额的10.8%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果手表在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车，救了你的命，不错吧？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我看不到后者的市场，但我可能错了）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部以21.9%的复合年增长率增长，并由二零一六年占总销售额的11.3%变为占总销售额的18.6%。以下是过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。新服务苹果电视+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信未来服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度盈利看涨期权中推断出的一个有趣的部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基数持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店的交易账户和付费账户数量在 9 月份季度创下历史新高，我们每个地区的付费账户都增长了两位数。第三，付费订阅量连续增长超过3500万，我们现在平台上的所有服务的付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我以中性评级和公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）启动苹果。公允价值是一个经过算法调整的价值，考虑了基本面和技术面的不同因素（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务状况，因为我将R&amp;D费用资本化，摊销年限为3年。我不认为在苹果的情况下，R&amp;D是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贴现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本案例场景</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本案例场景。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G转型驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 Mac细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 12%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 7.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况场景</i>: 生意火爆!在最佳情况下，我再次将我为基本情况描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，然而，除此之外，我还看到了中国更大的市场渗透率。在过去5年中，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额跃升了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设第一年的增长率为 14%，第二年至第五年的复合年增长率为 9.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为 30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏情况</i>:嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权喜欢“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长率略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设第一年的增长率为10%，第二年至第五年的CAGR为3.1%，第十年的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果带着苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下都分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>灵敏度分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本案例场景的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新 10-K 报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形模式。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价前进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果出现这种情况，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，按原样理解）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够提前几年发现问题并解决问题。通过观察在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以说该股票目前被高估了，但没有那么高。对于关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代表。考虑到这一点，我认为没有理由恐慌，然而，我也确实看到了市场即将出现的调整。许多技术指标和基本面指标都告诉我，目前市场过于沉重（即使标准普尔500可能会走高，也许在4400点区域）。总之，我不打算平掉我的全部苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平掉其中的 60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165920776,"gmtCreate":1624088556295,"gmtModify":1634010803217,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571044813043268","authorIdStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"great news","listText":"great news","text":"great news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165920776","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106330467,"gmtCreate":1620087587859,"gmtModify":1634207970649,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571044813043268","authorIdStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Grin]&nbsp;","listText":"[Grin]&nbsp;","text":"[Grin]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106330467","repostId":"1194616315","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1879,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378851413,"gmtCreate":1619017305732,"gmtModify":1634289177426,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571044813043268","authorIdStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378851413","repostId":"1129560929","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1129560929","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1619015707,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129560929?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-21 22:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Square, PayPal Are Top Picks In The Fintech Space Ahead Of Earnings<blockquote>为什么 Square 和PayPal是财报公布前金融科技领域的首选</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129560929","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Ahead of earnings from payment processing companies, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities picked his ","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e388dd7b580a775abca2bb0500cc3a0\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"375\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ahead of earnings from payment processing companies, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities picked his five favorite names in the space.</p><p><blockquote>在支付处理公司公布收益之前，罗森布拉特证券公司的一位分析师选出了他在该领域最喜欢的五个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ratings:</b>Analyst Sean Horgan maintained a Buy rating on&nbsp;<b>PayPal Holdings, Inc.</b>&nbsp;and increased the price target from $320 to $350.</p><p><blockquote><b>评级：</b>分析师肖恩·霍根维持买入评级<b>PayPal控股公司。</b>并将目标价从 320 美元上调至 350 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst maintained the Buy rating and $320 price target for&nbsp;<b>Square Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote>分析师维持买入评级和 320 美元目标价<b>广场公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> The analyst also maintained a Buy rating and $140 price target for&nbsp;<b>Fiserv&nbsp;Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师还维持买入评级和 140 美元目标价<b>Fiserv公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Horgan maintained&nbsp;<b>Global Payments Inc.</b>&nbsp;at Buy and nudged up the price target from $235 to $238.</p><p><blockquote>霍根维持<b>全球支付公司。</b>买入并将目标价从 235 美元上调至 238 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst rated&nbsp;<b>Fidelity National Information Servics&nbsp;Inc</b>&nbsp;a Neutral and increased the price. target from $140 to $146.</p><p><blockquote>分析师评级<b>富达国家信息服务公司</b>中性并提高了价格。目标从140美元到146美元。</blockquote></p><p> Horgan named Square and PayPal as his top picks in the run-up to the first-quarter earnings releases.</p><p><blockquote>霍根将 Square 和PayPal列为第一季度财报发布前的首选。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Theses:</b>Rosenblatt's positive view of payment processors is largely driven by their digital wallet offerings, Horgan said in the note.</p><p><blockquote><b>论文：</b>霍根在报告中表示，罗森布拉特对支付处理器的积极看法很大程度上是由他们的数字钱包产品推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Square's Cash App is continuing to leverage its valuable monetization playbook and PayPal is showing a renewed focus on Venmo using a similar strategy focusing&nbsp;on customer acquisition via new products such as&nbsp;crypto trading and&nbsp;credit card, the analyst noted.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，Square 的现金应用程序正在继续利用其有价值的货币化策略，而PayPal正在重新关注 Venmo，采用类似的策略，专注于通过加密货币交易和信用卡等新产品获取客户。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Square On Track to Beat User Estimate:</b>Square's&nbsp;Cash App&nbsp;is continuing to acquire customers at low customer acquisition cost and monetizing them quickly, Horgan said. The analyst expects first-quarter Cash App monthly average users to top the Street's 33.8 million estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>Square 有望超越用户预期：</b>霍根表示，Square 的现金应用程序继续以较低的客户获取成本获取客户，并快速将其货币化。该分析师预计第一季度 Cash App 月均用户将超过华尔街 3380 万的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Citing positive trends in U.S. retail sales, the analyst increased his gross payment volume estimate for the quarter and earnings per share estimate from 7 cents to 12 cents.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师援引美国零售销售的积极趋势，将本季度总支付量预期和每股收益预期从 7 美分上调至 12 美分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal to be Buoyed by Venmo, Product Launches:</b>Venmo is likely to top the $900 million revenue target for 2021, Horgan said.</p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal将受到 Venmo 产品发布的推动：</b>霍根表示，Venmo 可能会在 2021 年超过 9 亿美元的收入目标。</blockquote></p><p> \"Overall, we see upside risk driven by a laundry list of product launches in 2021 (i.e. Venmo crypto trading) that will positively impact PYPL's results and push shares higher,\" the analyst wrote in the note.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师在报告中写道：“总体而言，我们看到 2021 年一系列产品发布（即 Venmo 加密货币交易）带来的上行风险，这将对 PYPL 的业绩产生积极影响并推高股价。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fiserv To Hit Guidance:</b>Fiserv is positioned well to benefit during the COVID-19 pandemic reopening, Horgan said. Given current recovery rates, the analyst expects the company to hit the high end of its guided 8-12% internal revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote><b>Fiserv 将命中指南：</b>霍根表示，Fiserv 处于有利地位，可以在 COVID-19 大流行重新开放期间受益。鉴于目前的复苏速度，分析师预计该公司将达到指导的 8-12% 内部收入增长的上限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Payments Pursues Risk Neutral Strategy:</b>Global Payments is also a large beneficiary of the reopening, Rosenblatt said. The company's skew towards smaller sellers provides a positive decoupling of revenue growth from card network volume growth, it added.</p><p><blockquote><b>环球支付奉行风险中性策略：</b>罗森布拉特说，全球支付也是重新开放的一大受益者。它补充说，该公司对小型卖家的倾向提供了收入增长与信用卡网络销量增长的积极脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Further, the firm sees&nbsp;<b>Amazon.com,&nbsp;Inc.'s</b>&nbsp;AWS&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Alphabet Inc.</b>&nbsp;Google partnerships as positive catalysts in the long-term.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司认为<b>亚马逊公司</b>AWS和<b>Alphabet公司。</b>从长远来看，谷歌的合作伙伴关系是积极的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fidelity National Information Less Exposed to Reopening Tailwinds:</b>Fidelity National continues to be a name that&nbsp;is likely to be less exposed to tailwinds of the reopening, Horgan said.</p><p><blockquote><b>富达国家信息公司受重新开放的利好影响较小：</b>霍根表示，富达国民银行仍然是一个不太可能受到重新开放顺风影响的名字。</blockquote></p><p> \"In our view, outperformance in the banking segment is the biggest upside risk (strong pipeline expected to come online throughout '21),\" the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师表示：“我们认为，银行业的优异表现是最大的上行风险（预计整个 21 年将上线强大的管道）。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ab06f97db168ce3c05e434ff94f9b2\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"247\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Square, PayPal Are Top Picks In The Fintech Space Ahead Of Earnings<blockquote>为什么 Square 和PayPal是财报公布前金融科技领域的首选</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-21 22:35</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e388dd7b580a775abca2bb0500cc3a0\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"375\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ahead of earnings from payment processing companies, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities picked his five favorite names in the space.</p><p><blockquote>在支付处理公司公布收益之前，罗森布拉特证券公司的一位分析师选出了他在该领域最喜欢的五个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ratings:</b>Analyst Sean Horgan maintained a Buy rating on&nbsp;<b>PayPal Holdings, Inc.</b>&nbsp;and increased the price target from $320 to $350.</p><p><blockquote><b>评级：</b>分析师肖恩·霍根维持买入评级<b>PayPal控股公司。</b>并将目标价从 320 美元上调至 350 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst maintained the Buy rating and $320 price target for&nbsp;<b>Square Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote>分析师维持买入评级和 320 美元目标价<b>广场公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> The analyst also maintained a Buy rating and $140 price target for&nbsp;<b>Fiserv&nbsp;Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师还维持买入评级和 140 美元目标价<b>Fiserv公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Horgan maintained&nbsp;<b>Global Payments Inc.</b>&nbsp;at Buy and nudged up the price target from $235 to $238.</p><p><blockquote>霍根维持<b>全球支付公司。</b>买入并将目标价从 235 美元上调至 238 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst rated&nbsp;<b>Fidelity National Information Servics&nbsp;Inc</b>&nbsp;a Neutral and increased the price. target from $140 to $146.</p><p><blockquote>分析师评级<b>富达国家信息服务公司</b>中性并提高了价格。目标从140美元到146美元。</blockquote></p><p> Horgan named Square and PayPal as his top picks in the run-up to the first-quarter earnings releases.</p><p><blockquote>霍根将 Square 和PayPal列为第一季度财报发布前的首选。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Theses:</b>Rosenblatt's positive view of payment processors is largely driven by their digital wallet offerings, Horgan said in the note.</p><p><blockquote><b>论文：</b>霍根在报告中表示，罗森布拉特对支付处理器的积极看法很大程度上是由他们的数字钱包产品推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Square's Cash App is continuing to leverage its valuable monetization playbook and PayPal is showing a renewed focus on Venmo using a similar strategy focusing&nbsp;on customer acquisition via new products such as&nbsp;crypto trading and&nbsp;credit card, the analyst noted.</p><p><blockquote>分析师指出，Square 的现金应用程序正在继续利用其有价值的货币化策略，而PayPal正在重新关注 Venmo，采用类似的策略，专注于通过加密货币交易和信用卡等新产品获取客户。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Square On Track to Beat User Estimate:</b>Square's&nbsp;Cash App&nbsp;is continuing to acquire customers at low customer acquisition cost and monetizing them quickly, Horgan said. The analyst expects first-quarter Cash App monthly average users to top the Street's 33.8 million estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>Square 有望超越用户预期：</b>霍根表示，Square 的现金应用程序继续以较低的客户获取成本获取客户，并快速将其货币化。该分析师预计第一季度 Cash App 月均用户将超过华尔街 3380 万的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Citing positive trends in U.S. retail sales, the analyst increased his gross payment volume estimate for the quarter and earnings per share estimate from 7 cents to 12 cents.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师援引美国零售销售的积极趋势，将本季度总支付量预期和每股收益预期从 7 美分上调至 12 美分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal to be Buoyed by Venmo, Product Launches:</b>Venmo is likely to top the $900 million revenue target for 2021, Horgan said.</p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal将受到 Venmo 产品发布的推动：</b>霍根表示，Venmo 可能会在 2021 年超过 9 亿美元的收入目标。</blockquote></p><p> \"Overall, we see upside risk driven by a laundry list of product launches in 2021 (i.e. Venmo crypto trading) that will positively impact PYPL's results and push shares higher,\" the analyst wrote in the note.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师在报告中写道：“总体而言，我们看到 2021 年一系列产品发布（即 Venmo 加密货币交易）带来的上行风险，这将对 PYPL 的业绩产生积极影响并推高股价。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fiserv To Hit Guidance:</b>Fiserv is positioned well to benefit during the COVID-19 pandemic reopening, Horgan said. Given current recovery rates, the analyst expects the company to hit the high end of its guided 8-12% internal revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote><b>Fiserv 将命中指南：</b>霍根表示，Fiserv 处于有利地位，可以在 COVID-19 大流行重新开放期间受益。鉴于目前的复苏速度，分析师预计该公司将达到指导的 8-12% 内部收入增长的上限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Payments Pursues Risk Neutral Strategy:</b>Global Payments is also a large beneficiary of the reopening, Rosenblatt said. The company's skew towards smaller sellers provides a positive decoupling of revenue growth from card network volume growth, it added.</p><p><blockquote><b>环球支付奉行风险中性策略：</b>罗森布拉特说，全球支付也是重新开放的一大受益者。它补充说，该公司对小型卖家的倾向提供了收入增长与信用卡网络销量增长的积极脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Further, the firm sees&nbsp;<b>Amazon.com,&nbsp;Inc.'s</b>&nbsp;AWS&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Alphabet Inc.</b>&nbsp;Google partnerships as positive catalysts in the long-term.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司认为<b>亚马逊公司</b>AWS和<b>Alphabet公司。</b>从长远来看，谷歌的合作伙伴关系是积极的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fidelity National Information Less Exposed to Reopening Tailwinds:</b>Fidelity National continues to be a name that&nbsp;is likely to be less exposed to tailwinds of the reopening, Horgan said.</p><p><blockquote><b>富达国家信息公司受重新开放的利好影响较小：</b>霍根表示，富达国民银行仍然是一个不太可能受到重新开放顺风影响的名字。</blockquote></p><p> \"In our view, outperformance in the banking segment is the biggest upside risk (strong pipeline expected to come online throughout '21),\" the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师表示：“我们认为，银行业的优异表现是最大的上行风险（预计整个 21 年将上线强大的管道）。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ab06f97db168ce3c05e434ff94f9b2\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"247\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129560929","content_text":"Ahead of earnings from payment processing companies, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities picked his five favorite names in the space.\nThe Ratings:Analyst Sean Horgan maintained a Buy rating on PayPal Holdings, Inc. and increased the price target from $320 to $350.\nThe analyst maintained the Buy rating and $320 price target for Square Inc.\nThe analyst also maintained a Buy rating and $140 price target for Fiserv Inc.\nHorgan maintained Global Payments Inc. at Buy and nudged up the price target from $235 to $238.\nThe analyst rated Fidelity National Information Servics Inc a Neutral and increased the price. target from $140 to $146.\nHorgan named Square and PayPal as his top picks in the run-up to the first-quarter earnings releases.\nThe Theses:Rosenblatt's positive view of payment processors is largely driven by their digital wallet offerings, Horgan said in the note.\nSquare's Cash App is continuing to leverage its valuable monetization playbook and PayPal is showing a renewed focus on Venmo using a similar strategy focusing on customer acquisition via new products such as crypto trading and credit card, the analyst noted.\nSquare On Track to Beat User Estimate:Square's Cash App is continuing to acquire customers at low customer acquisition cost and monetizing them quickly, Horgan said. The analyst expects first-quarter Cash App monthly average users to top the Street's 33.8 million estimate.\nCiting positive trends in U.S. retail sales, the analyst increased his gross payment volume estimate for the quarter and earnings per share estimate from 7 cents to 12 cents.\nPayPal to be Buoyed by Venmo, Product Launches:Venmo is likely to top the $900 million revenue target for 2021, Horgan said.\n\"Overall, we see upside risk driven by a laundry list of product launches in 2021 (i.e. Venmo crypto trading) that will positively impact PYPL's results and push shares higher,\" the analyst wrote in the note.\nFiserv To Hit Guidance:Fiserv is positioned well to benefit during the COVID-19 pandemic reopening, Horgan said. Given current recovery rates, the analyst expects the company to hit the high end of its guided 8-12% internal revenue growth.\nGlobal Payments Pursues Risk Neutral Strategy:Global Payments is also a large beneficiary of the reopening, Rosenblatt said. The company's skew towards smaller sellers provides a positive decoupling of revenue growth from card network volume growth, it added.\nFurther, the firm sees Amazon.com, Inc.'s AWS and Alphabet Inc. Google partnerships as positive catalysts in the long-term.\nFidelity National Information Less Exposed to Reopening Tailwinds:Fidelity National continues to be a name that is likely to be less exposed to tailwinds of the reopening, Horgan said.\n\"In our view, outperformance in the banking segment is the biggest upside risk (strong pipeline expected to come online throughout '21),\" the analyst said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9,"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358408182,"gmtCreate":1616719957546,"gmtModify":1634524391490,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571044813043268","authorIdStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"trap?","listText":"trap?","text":"trap?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358408182","repostId":"1124742259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124742259","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616686649,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1124742259?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-25 23:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green<blockquote>波音股价短期从红色升至绿色</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124742259","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green in Thursday trading,As Boeing may restart 787","content":"<p>Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green&nbsp;in Thursday trading,As&nbsp;Boeing may restart 787 dreamliner deliveries Friday, people say.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，波音股价在周四交易中短期从红色升至绿色，因为波音可能会在周五重启 787 梦想客机的交付。</blockquote></p><p>In addition,Boeing stock price target was&nbsp;raised to $265 from $210 at BofA Securities.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美国银行证券将波音股价目标从 210 美元上调至 265 美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04e130d61237ab07e9222dd22715ac6c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoeing shares rose in the short term from red to green<blockquote>波音股价短期从红色升至绿色</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-25 23:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green&nbsp;in Thursday trading,As&nbsp;Boeing may restart 787 dreamliner deliveries Friday, people say.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，波音股价在周四交易中短期从红色升至绿色，因为波音可能会在周五重启 787 梦想客机的交付。</blockquote></p><p>In addition,Boeing stock price target was&nbsp;raised to $265 from $210 at BofA Securities.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美国银行证券将波音股价目标从 210 美元上调至 265 美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04e130d61237ab07e9222dd22715ac6c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124742259","content_text":"Boeing shares rose in the short term from red to green in Thursday trading,As Boeing may restart 787 dreamliner deliveries Friday, people say.In addition,Boeing stock price target was raised to $265 from $210 at BofA Securities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358401074,"gmtCreate":1616719886598,"gmtModify":1634524392414,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571044813043268","authorIdStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358401074","repostId":"1186019716","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389252055,"gmtCreate":1612780911677,"gmtModify":1703764907560,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571044813043268","authorIdStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389252055","repostId":"1105339151","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105339151","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612778898,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1105339151?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Individual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了--这对股市意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105339151","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop\nLook who’s back.\nAfter a long absence, active indiv","content":"<p>There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop</p><p><blockquote>零售业复兴不仅仅是游戏驿站</blockquote></p><p> Look who’s back.</p><p><blockquote>看看谁回来了。</blockquote></p><p> After a long absence, active individual investors have returned. While breakneck and foolhardy trading activity in shares of GameStop Corp.GME,+19.20%has dominated the headlines, unanswered questions remain as to whether a broader resurgence in retail trading will last and what it will mean for the stock market as U.S. benchmark indexes march to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>久违之后，活跃的个人投资者又回来了。尽管游戏驿站股价的鲁莽和鲁莽交易活动占据了头条新闻，但随着美国基准指数创下历史新高，零售交易的更广泛复苏是否会持续下去，以及这对股市意味着什么，仍有未解之谜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The comeback</b></p><p><blockquote><b>东山再起</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s been a long time coming.</p><p><blockquote>已经过去很久了。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market put in a historic rally over the past decade “without any prominent retail interest in it,” said Chris Konstantinos, chief investment strategist at RiverFront Investment Group, in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>河滨投资集团（RiverFront Investment Group）首席投资策略师克里斯-康斯坦丁诺斯（Chris Konstantinos）在接受采访时说，股市在过去十年中出现了历史性的反弹，“但散户对此却没有任何明显的兴趣”。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that total bond fund flows have outpaced stock flows by nearly $3 trillion since 2007. In fact, individual investors appeared interested in almost anything else, from real estate to cryptocurrencies, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，自2007年以来，债券资金流量总额已超过股票流量近3万亿美元。康斯坦丁诺斯说，事实上，个人投资者似乎对几乎任何其他东西都感兴趣，从房地产到加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> A shift got under way last year as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Sequential growth in accounts at brokers such as Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%that cater to individual investors “was remarkable” at the end of the second quarter of 2020 and was followed by a major surge in growth in the following quarter, said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Feb. 2 note.</p><p><blockquote>随着冠状病毒疫情的蔓延，去年发生了转变。加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）美国股票策略主管洛里-卡尔瓦西纳（Lori Calvasina）在2月2日的一份报告中说，嘉信理财公司（Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW）等面向个人投资者的经纪商账户在2020年第二季度末实现了“显著增长”，随后在接下来的一个季度实现了大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time Google searches for “day trading” were also on the rise, she noted (see charts below).</p><p><blockquote>她指出，与此同时，谷歌对 “日内交易 ”的搜索量也在上升（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abaf0f0e954b8c180c43870b72f55252\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"655\"><span>RBC CAPITAL MARKETS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>加拿大皇家银行资本市场</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina and others acknowledged that a combination of lockdown-related boredom and stimulus checks from the U.S. government likely played a role in the uptick in individual investing interest.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳和其他人承认，与封锁相关的无聊和美国政府的刺激检查可能在个人投资兴趣上升中发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> The jury is out on whether that enthusiasm will endure, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, in an interview. It’s unclear how much of the pickup in retail trading merely reflects individuals throwing extra money via stimulus checks at the market, he said.</p><p><blockquote>内德·戴维斯研究集团（Ned Davis Research Group）美国首席策略师埃德·克利索尔德（Ed Clissold）在接受采访时表示，这种热情是否会持续下去，目前还没有定论。他说，目前还不清楚零售交易的回升有多少仅仅反映了个人通过刺激支票向市场投入了额外资金。</blockquote></p><p> That sort of trading feels more like gambling than investing, he said, noting that “frothy” market action tends to fade quickly away.</p><p><blockquote>他说，这种交易感觉更像是赌博，而不是投资，并指出 “泡沫 ”市场行为往往会很快消失。</blockquote></p><p> No doubt, day traders who jumped on the GameStop rally in a big way and listened to pleas on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to hold the line were left to suffer ugly losses. Some market watchers fear that the bubble-like activity in so-called meme stocks could end up scaring away individual investors, nipping any resurgence in the bud.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，那些在游戏驿站反弹中大举跳水，并在 Reddit 的 WallStreetBets 论坛上听取了守住阵容的呼吁的日内交易者，却遭受了惨重的损失。一些市场观察人士担心，所谓模因股票的泡沫般的活动最终可能会吓跑个人投资者，将任何复苏扼杀在萌芽状态。</blockquote></p><p> But others argued that many individual investors, whose ranks aren’t made up soley of rapid-fire day traders, were likely to stick around.</p><p><blockquote>但也有人认为，许多个人投资者很可能会留下来，他们的队伍中不仅仅是快速反应的日内交易者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Structural change’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“结构变革”</b></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina said RBC suspects a “structural change may be afoot and that retail investors are likely to remain bigger players in the U.S. equity market going forward.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示，加拿大皇家银行怀疑 “结构性变化可能正在发生，散户投资者很可能仍将是美国股市未来更大的参与者”。</blockquote></p><p> If so, that will require an attitude adjustment by Wall Street pros, who got used to paying little attention to individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，这将需要华尔街专业人士调整态度，他们已经习惯于很少关注个人投资者。</blockquote></p><p> After all, powerful waves of passive and systematic investment had rendered individual investors largely irrelevant to analysts cooking up market forecasts, wrote strategists at Société Générale, in a Thursday note.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行策略师在周四的一份报告中写道，毕竟，强大的被动和系统性投资浪潮使得个人投资者与分析师做出市场预测基本上无关紧要。</blockquote></p><p> But the market volatility created by the GameStop situation served as a wake-up call, the analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，游戏驿站局势造成的市场波动是一个唤醒看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> While GameStop and other heavily shorted names soared, hedge funds and other investors were seen liquidating long positions elsewhere, to take profits and cover losses, putting pressure on equities markets. Major benchmarks ended January on a sour note, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.30%,S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.39%and Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,+0.57%logging their largest weekly declines since October.</p><p><blockquote>尽管游戏驿站和其他被严重做空的股票飙升，但对冲基金和其他投资者却在其他地方清算多头头寸，以获利回吐，给股市带来压力。主要基准在 1 月份收盘时表现不佳，道琼斯工业平均指数 (DJIA) +0.30%、标准普尔 500SPX 指数 +0.39% 和纳斯达克综合指数 (CompositeCOMP) +0.57% 录得自 10 月份以来的最大单周跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks roared back in the past week, however, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaqscoring all-time highsas GameStop tumbled more than 80%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国股市上周大幅反弹，标普500和纳斯达克指数创下历史新高，游戏驿站股市下跌超过 80%。</blockquote></p><p> The SocGen analysts said increased retail interest in the markets is part of a broader trend that has seen individual investors driving demand for investments that take environmental, social and corporate governance, or ESG, standards into account.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行分析师表示，散户对市场兴趣的增加是更广泛趋势的一部分，个人投资者推动了对考虑环境、社会和公司治理（ESG）标准的投资的需求。</blockquote></p><p> “Rather than criticizing retail investors and their behavioral pattens, it is better to slot them into the money equation,” they wrote. “After all, it is not only office workers who are locked down at home on snowy days but also very active day traders with access to inexpensive platforms.”</p><p><blockquote>“他们写道：”与其批评散户投资者及其行为模式，不如将他们纳入金钱等式。“毕竟，下雪天被锁在家里的不仅仅是上班族，还有非常活跃的日内交易者，他们可以使用廉价的平台”。</blockquote></p><p> Cabin fever, however, is hardly the only factor seen driving the renewed interest in the market by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，房车热并不是推动个人投资者对市场重新产生兴趣的唯一因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Leveling the field</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平整场地</b></blockquote></p><p> Some individual investors who previously shunned equities might finally be succumbing to the notion that ultralow yields on bonds and elsewhere leave little alternative to the stock market. Equities still look attractive when it comes to dividend or earnings yields, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>一些此前回避股票的个人投资者可能最终会屈服于这样一种观念：债券和其他领域的超低收益率使得股市几乎没有其他选择。康斯坦丁诺斯表示，就股息或收益收益率而言，股票看起来仍然很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moreover, there’s the leveling of the playing field between institutional and individual investors over the past few decades. Regulation FD (for “full disclosure’) and other regulatory changes as well as the rise of low-fee trading platforms have put individual investors “on a closer footing to institutional investors than at any other time in history,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在过去的几十年里，机构投资者和个人投资者之间的竞争环境也变得更加公平。他说，监管 FD（“全面披露”）和其他监管变化以及低费用交易平台的兴起，使个人投资者 “比历史上任何时候都更接近机构投资者”。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, some market watchers have argued that the conventional branding of individual investors as the “dumb money” looks increasingly misguided, particularly after the GameStop episode showed supposedly “smart money” investors shorting more than 100% of the company’s stock, leaving them wide open to a painful short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，一些市场观察人士认为，将个人投资者贴上 “傻钱 ”的传统标签看起来越来越被误导，尤其是在游戏驿站事件显示，所谓的 “聪明钱 ”投资者做空了公司股票 100% 以上，使他们很容易遭受痛苦的挤空。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina noted that some of the more well-known trades pursued by individual investors over the past year — buying stocks in the middle of a recession, buying airlines and cruise lines last summer, and implementing short squeezes this winter — come from a playbook that’s been largely abandoned by institutional investors over the past decade in favor of growth-, momentum- and quality-investing strategies.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳指出，过去一年中，个人投资者进行的一些比较知名的交易--在经济衰退中购买股票、去年夏天购买航空公司和邮轮公司以及今年冬天实施空头挤压--都来自于过去十年中机构投资者基本上放弃的策略，转而采用增长、动量和质量投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> On that point, highly shorted names have outperformed the market since the March 23 lows when it comes to both small- and large-cap stocks, a development that typically occurs after the market has put in a mid-recession low, she noted.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，在这一点上，自 3 月 23 日低点以来，小盘股和大盘股的表现都优于市场，这种情况通常发生在市场跌至衰退中期低点之后。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the frenzy in retail trading that surrounded the short squeeze on GameStop and a handful of other heavily shorted small-cap stocks raised a red flag to investors on the lookout for the sort of froth that signals a rally is entering the sort of euphoric phase typically followed by a pullback.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，围绕游戏驿站和其他少数严重做空的小盘股的零售交易狂热向投资者发出了危险信号，他们正在寻找那种预示着反弹正在进入那种欣快阶段的泡沫，通常随后是回调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Next leg?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一段？</b></blockquote></p><p> While that may prove to be the case in the near term, some investors contend a sustained pickup in active individual investing interest could help drive the next leg of a bull market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然短期内情况可能会如此，但一些投资者认为，个人投资兴趣的持续回升可能有助于推动牛市的下一阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investors could continue to fuel interest in more value-oriented, smaller capitalization and higher volatility names, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>康斯坦丁诺斯表示，个人投资者可能会继续对更注重价值、市值较小、波动性较高的股票产生兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> And sustained interest in individual securities could mean more “dispersion,” or variation in returns between individual stocks and sectors, said Clissold — an element that was missing over the past decade to the pain of active fund managers.</p><p><blockquote>克利索尔德说，对个股证券的持续兴趣可能意味着更多的 “分散”，即个股和行业之间的回报率差异--这是主动型基金经理在过去十年中一直缺少的一个要素。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina argued that retail interest in specific stocks is likely to ebb and flow, as it has done over the past year, but probably won’t fade away.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳认为，零售商对特定股票的兴趣可能会像过去一年一样时好时坏，但可能不会消退。</blockquote></p><p> “Unless the door closes (i.e. through a major regulatory change), we fail to see why retail investor interest in trading specific names will completely go way given how elevated cash on the sidelines is among consumers,” she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“她写道：”除非大门关闭（即通过重大监管变化），否则我们无法理解为什么散户投资者对交易特定名称的兴趣会完全消失，因为消费者的场外现金如此之高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Individual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了--这对股市意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIndividual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了--这对股市意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 18:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop</p><p><blockquote>零售业复兴不仅仅是游戏驿站</blockquote></p><p> Look who’s back.</p><p><blockquote>看看谁回来了。</blockquote></p><p> After a long absence, active individual investors have returned. While breakneck and foolhardy trading activity in shares of GameStop Corp.GME,+19.20%has dominated the headlines, unanswered questions remain as to whether a broader resurgence in retail trading will last and what it will mean for the stock market as U.S. benchmark indexes march to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>久违之后，活跃的个人投资者又回来了。尽管游戏驿站股价的鲁莽和鲁莽交易活动占据了头条新闻，但随着美国基准指数创下历史新高，零售交易的更广泛复苏是否会持续下去，以及这对股市意味着什么，仍有未解之谜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The comeback</b></p><p><blockquote><b>东山再起</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s been a long time coming.</p><p><blockquote>已经过去很久了。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market put in a historic rally over the past decade “without any prominent retail interest in it,” said Chris Konstantinos, chief investment strategist at RiverFront Investment Group, in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>河滨投资集团（RiverFront Investment Group）首席投资策略师克里斯-康斯坦丁诺斯（Chris Konstantinos）在接受采访时说，股市在过去十年中出现了历史性的反弹，“但散户对此却没有任何明显的兴趣”。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that total bond fund flows have outpaced stock flows by nearly $3 trillion since 2007. In fact, individual investors appeared interested in almost anything else, from real estate to cryptocurrencies, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，自2007年以来，债券资金流量总额已超过股票流量近3万亿美元。康斯坦丁诺斯说，事实上，个人投资者似乎对几乎任何其他东西都感兴趣，从房地产到加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> A shift got under way last year as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Sequential growth in accounts at brokers such as Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%that cater to individual investors “was remarkable” at the end of the second quarter of 2020 and was followed by a major surge in growth in the following quarter, said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Feb. 2 note.</p><p><blockquote>随着冠状病毒疫情的蔓延，去年发生了转变。加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）美国股票策略主管洛里-卡尔瓦西纳（Lori Calvasina）在2月2日的一份报告中说，嘉信理财公司（Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW）等面向个人投资者的经纪商账户在2020年第二季度末实现了“显著增长”，随后在接下来的一个季度实现了大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time Google searches for “day trading” were also on the rise, she noted (see charts below).</p><p><blockquote>她指出，与此同时，谷歌对 “日内交易 ”的搜索量也在上升（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abaf0f0e954b8c180c43870b72f55252\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"655\"><span>RBC CAPITAL MARKETS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>加拿大皇家银行资本市场</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina and others acknowledged that a combination of lockdown-related boredom and stimulus checks from the U.S. government likely played a role in the uptick in individual investing interest.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳和其他人承认，与封锁相关的无聊和美国政府的刺激检查可能在个人投资兴趣上升中发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> The jury is out on whether that enthusiasm will endure, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, in an interview. It’s unclear how much of the pickup in retail trading merely reflects individuals throwing extra money via stimulus checks at the market, he said.</p><p><blockquote>内德·戴维斯研究集团（Ned Davis Research Group）美国首席策略师埃德·克利索尔德（Ed Clissold）在接受采访时表示，这种热情是否会持续下去，目前还没有定论。他说，目前还不清楚零售交易的回升有多少仅仅反映了个人通过刺激支票向市场投入了额外资金。</blockquote></p><p> That sort of trading feels more like gambling than investing, he said, noting that “frothy” market action tends to fade quickly away.</p><p><blockquote>他说，这种交易感觉更像是赌博，而不是投资，并指出 “泡沫 ”市场行为往往会很快消失。</blockquote></p><p> No doubt, day traders who jumped on the GameStop rally in a big way and listened to pleas on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to hold the line were left to suffer ugly losses. Some market watchers fear that the bubble-like activity in so-called meme stocks could end up scaring away individual investors, nipping any resurgence in the bud.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，那些在游戏驿站反弹中大举跳水，并在 Reddit 的 WallStreetBets 论坛上听取了守住阵容的呼吁的日内交易者，却遭受了惨重的损失。一些市场观察人士担心，所谓模因股票的泡沫般的活动最终可能会吓跑个人投资者，将任何复苏扼杀在萌芽状态。</blockquote></p><p> But others argued that many individual investors, whose ranks aren’t made up soley of rapid-fire day traders, were likely to stick around.</p><p><blockquote>但也有人认为，许多个人投资者很可能会留下来，他们的队伍中不仅仅是快速反应的日内交易者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Structural change’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“结构变革”</b></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina said RBC suspects a “structural change may be afoot and that retail investors are likely to remain bigger players in the U.S. equity market going forward.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示，加拿大皇家银行怀疑 “结构性变化可能正在发生，散户投资者很可能仍将是美国股市未来更大的参与者”。</blockquote></p><p> If so, that will require an attitude adjustment by Wall Street pros, who got used to paying little attention to individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，这将需要华尔街专业人士调整态度，他们已经习惯于很少关注个人投资者。</blockquote></p><p> After all, powerful waves of passive and systematic investment had rendered individual investors largely irrelevant to analysts cooking up market forecasts, wrote strategists at Société Générale, in a Thursday note.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行策略师在周四的一份报告中写道，毕竟，强大的被动和系统性投资浪潮使得个人投资者与分析师做出市场预测基本上无关紧要。</blockquote></p><p> But the market volatility created by the GameStop situation served as a wake-up call, the analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，游戏驿站局势造成的市场波动是一个唤醒看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> While GameStop and other heavily shorted names soared, hedge funds and other investors were seen liquidating long positions elsewhere, to take profits and cover losses, putting pressure on equities markets. Major benchmarks ended January on a sour note, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.30%,S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.39%and Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,+0.57%logging their largest weekly declines since October.</p><p><blockquote>尽管游戏驿站和其他被严重做空的股票飙升，但对冲基金和其他投资者却在其他地方清算多头头寸，以获利回吐，给股市带来压力。主要基准在 1 月份收盘时表现不佳，道琼斯工业平均指数 (DJIA) +0.30%、标准普尔 500SPX 指数 +0.39% 和纳斯达克综合指数 (CompositeCOMP) +0.57% 录得自 10 月份以来的最大单周跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks roared back in the past week, however, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaqscoring all-time highsas GameStop tumbled more than 80%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国股市上周大幅反弹，标普500和纳斯达克指数创下历史新高，游戏驿站股市下跌超过 80%。</blockquote></p><p> The SocGen analysts said increased retail interest in the markets is part of a broader trend that has seen individual investors driving demand for investments that take environmental, social and corporate governance, or ESG, standards into account.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行分析师表示，散户对市场兴趣的增加是更广泛趋势的一部分，个人投资者推动了对考虑环境、社会和公司治理（ESG）标准的投资的需求。</blockquote></p><p> “Rather than criticizing retail investors and their behavioral pattens, it is better to slot them into the money equation,” they wrote. “After all, it is not only office workers who are locked down at home on snowy days but also very active day traders with access to inexpensive platforms.”</p><p><blockquote>“他们写道：”与其批评散户投资者及其行为模式，不如将他们纳入金钱等式。“毕竟，下雪天被锁在家里的不仅仅是上班族，还有非常活跃的日内交易者，他们可以使用廉价的平台”。</blockquote></p><p> Cabin fever, however, is hardly the only factor seen driving the renewed interest in the market by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，房车热并不是推动个人投资者对市场重新产生兴趣的唯一因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Leveling the field</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平整场地</b></blockquote></p><p> Some individual investors who previously shunned equities might finally be succumbing to the notion that ultralow yields on bonds and elsewhere leave little alternative to the stock market. Equities still look attractive when it comes to dividend or earnings yields, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>一些此前回避股票的个人投资者可能最终会屈服于这样一种观念：债券和其他领域的超低收益率使得股市几乎没有其他选择。康斯坦丁诺斯表示，就股息或收益收益率而言，股票看起来仍然很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moreover, there’s the leveling of the playing field between institutional and individual investors over the past few decades. Regulation FD (for “full disclosure’) and other regulatory changes as well as the rise of low-fee trading platforms have put individual investors “on a closer footing to institutional investors than at any other time in history,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在过去的几十年里，机构投资者和个人投资者之间的竞争环境也变得更加公平。他说，监管 FD（“全面披露”）和其他监管变化以及低费用交易平台的兴起，使个人投资者 “比历史上任何时候都更接近机构投资者”。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, some market watchers have argued that the conventional branding of individual investors as the “dumb money” looks increasingly misguided, particularly after the GameStop episode showed supposedly “smart money” investors shorting more than 100% of the company’s stock, leaving them wide open to a painful short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，一些市场观察人士认为，将个人投资者贴上 “傻钱 ”的传统标签看起来越来越被误导，尤其是在游戏驿站事件显示，所谓的 “聪明钱 ”投资者做空了公司股票 100% 以上，使他们很容易遭受痛苦的挤空。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina noted that some of the more well-known trades pursued by individual investors over the past year — buying stocks in the middle of a recession, buying airlines and cruise lines last summer, and implementing short squeezes this winter — come from a playbook that’s been largely abandoned by institutional investors over the past decade in favor of growth-, momentum- and quality-investing strategies.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳指出，过去一年中，个人投资者进行的一些比较知名的交易--在经济衰退中购买股票、去年夏天购买航空公司和邮轮公司以及今年冬天实施空头挤压--都来自于过去十年中机构投资者基本上放弃的策略，转而采用增长、动量和质量投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> On that point, highly shorted names have outperformed the market since the March 23 lows when it comes to both small- and large-cap stocks, a development that typically occurs after the market has put in a mid-recession low, she noted.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，在这一点上，自 3 月 23 日低点以来，小盘股和大盘股的表现都优于市场，这种情况通常发生在市场跌至衰退中期低点之后。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the frenzy in retail trading that surrounded the short squeeze on GameStop and a handful of other heavily shorted small-cap stocks raised a red flag to investors on the lookout for the sort of froth that signals a rally is entering the sort of euphoric phase typically followed by a pullback.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，围绕游戏驿站和其他少数严重做空的小盘股的零售交易狂热向投资者发出了危险信号，他们正在寻找那种预示着反弹正在进入那种欣快阶段的泡沫，通常随后是回调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Next leg?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一段？</b></blockquote></p><p> While that may prove to be the case in the near term, some investors contend a sustained pickup in active individual investing interest could help drive the next leg of a bull market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然短期内情况可能会如此，但一些投资者认为，个人投资兴趣的持续回升可能有助于推动牛市的下一阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investors could continue to fuel interest in more value-oriented, smaller capitalization and higher volatility names, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>康斯坦丁诺斯表示，个人投资者可能会继续对更注重价值、市值较小、波动性较高的股票产生兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> And sustained interest in individual securities could mean more “dispersion,” or variation in returns between individual stocks and sectors, said Clissold — an element that was missing over the past decade to the pain of active fund managers.</p><p><blockquote>克利索尔德说，对个股证券的持续兴趣可能意味着更多的 “分散”，即个股和行业之间的回报率差异--这是主动型基金经理在过去十年中一直缺少的一个要素。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina argued that retail interest in specific stocks is likely to ebb and flow, as it has done over the past year, but probably won’t fade away.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳认为，零售商对特定股票的兴趣可能会像过去一年一样时好时坏，但可能不会消退。</blockquote></p><p> “Unless the door closes (i.e. through a major regulatory change), we fail to see why retail investor interest in trading specific names will completely go way given how elevated cash on the sidelines is among consumers,” she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“她写道：”除非大门关闭（即通过重大监管变化），否则我们无法理解为什么散户投资者对交易特定名称的兴趣会完全消失，因为消费者的场外现金如此之高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/individual-investors-are-back-heres-what-it-means-for-the-stock-market-11612557558?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GME":"游戏驿站",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/individual-investors-are-back-heres-what-it-means-for-the-stock-market-11612557558?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1105339151","content_text":"There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop\nLook who’s back.\nAfter a long absence, active individual investors have returned. While breakneck and foolhardy trading activity in shares of GameStop Corp.GME,+19.20%has dominated the headlines, unanswered questions remain as to whether a broader resurgence in retail trading will last and what it will mean for the stock market as U.S. benchmark indexes march to all-time highs.\nThe comeback\nIt’s been a long time coming.\nThe stock market put in a historic rally over the past decade “without any prominent retail interest in it,” said Chris Konstantinos, chief investment strategist at RiverFront Investment Group, in an interview.\nHe noted that total bond fund flows have outpaced stock flows by nearly $3 trillion since 2007. In fact, individual investors appeared interested in almost anything else, from real estate to cryptocurrencies, Konstantinos said.\nA shift got under way last year as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Sequential growth in accounts at brokers such as Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%that cater to individual investors “was remarkable” at the end of the second quarter of 2020 and was followed by a major surge in growth in the following quarter, said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Feb. 2 note.\nAt the same time Google searches for “day trading” were also on the rise, she noted (see charts below).\nRBC CAPITAL MARKETS\nCalvasina and others acknowledged that a combination of lockdown-related boredom and stimulus checks from the U.S. government likely played a role in the uptick in individual investing interest.\nThe jury is out on whether that enthusiasm will endure, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, in an interview. It’s unclear how much of the pickup in retail trading merely reflects individuals throwing extra money via stimulus checks at the market, he said.\nThat sort of trading feels more like gambling than investing, he said, noting that “frothy” market action tends to fade quickly away.\nNo doubt, day traders who jumped on the GameStop rally in a big way and listened to pleas on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to hold the line were left to suffer ugly losses. Some market watchers fear that the bubble-like activity in so-called meme stocks could end up scaring away individual investors, nipping any resurgence in the bud.\nBut others argued that many individual investors, whose ranks aren’t made up soley of rapid-fire day traders, were likely to stick around.\n‘Structural change’\nCalvasina said RBC suspects a “structural change may be afoot and that retail investors are likely to remain bigger players in the U.S. equity market going forward.”\nIf so, that will require an attitude adjustment by Wall Street pros, who got used to paying little attention to individual investors.\nAfter all, powerful waves of passive and systematic investment had rendered individual investors largely irrelevant to analysts cooking up market forecasts, wrote strategists at Société Générale, in a Thursday note.\nBut the market volatility created by the GameStop situation served as a wake-up call, the analysts said.\nWhile GameStop and other heavily shorted names soared, hedge funds and other investors were seen liquidating long positions elsewhere, to take profits and cover losses, putting pressure on equities markets. Major benchmarks ended January on a sour note, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.30%,S&P 500SPX,+0.39%and Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,+0.57%logging their largest weekly declines since October.\nU.S. stocks roared back in the past week, however, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaqscoring all-time highsas GameStop tumbled more than 80%.\nThe SocGen analysts said increased retail interest in the markets is part of a broader trend that has seen individual investors driving demand for investments that take environmental, social and corporate governance, or ESG, standards into account.\n“Rather than criticizing retail investors and their behavioral pattens, it is better to slot them into the money equation,” they wrote. “After all, it is not only office workers who are locked down at home on snowy days but also very active day traders with access to inexpensive platforms.”\nCabin fever, however, is hardly the only factor seen driving the renewed interest in the market by individual investors.\nLeveling the field\nSome individual investors who previously shunned equities might finally be succumbing to the notion that ultralow yields on bonds and elsewhere leave little alternative to the stock market. Equities still look attractive when it comes to dividend or earnings yields, Konstantinos said.\nMoreover, there’s the leveling of the playing field between institutional and individual investors over the past few decades. Regulation FD (for “full disclosure’) and other regulatory changes as well as the rise of low-fee trading platforms have put individual investors “on a closer footing to institutional investors than at any other time in history,” he said.\nIndeed, some market watchers have argued that the conventional branding of individual investors as the “dumb money” looks increasingly misguided, particularly after the GameStop episode showed supposedly “smart money” investors shorting more than 100% of the company’s stock, leaving them wide open to a painful short squeeze.\nCalvasina noted that some of the more well-known trades pursued by individual investors over the past year — buying stocks in the middle of a recession, buying airlines and cruise lines last summer, and implementing short squeezes this winter — come from a playbook that’s been largely abandoned by institutional investors over the past decade in favor of growth-, momentum- and quality-investing strategies.\nOn that point, highly shorted names have outperformed the market since the March 23 lows when it comes to both small- and large-cap stocks, a development that typically occurs after the market has put in a mid-recession low, she noted.\nStill, the frenzy in retail trading that surrounded the short squeeze on GameStop and a handful of other heavily shorted small-cap stocks raised a red flag to investors on the lookout for the sort of froth that signals a rally is entering the sort of euphoric phase typically followed by a pullback.\nNext leg?\nWhile that may prove to be the case in the near term, some investors contend a sustained pickup in active individual investing interest could help drive the next leg of a bull market.\nIndividual investors could continue to fuel interest in more value-oriented, smaller capitalization and higher volatility names, Konstantinos said.\nAnd sustained interest in individual securities could mean more “dispersion,” or variation in returns between individual stocks and sectors, said Clissold — an element that was missing over the past decade to the pain of active fund managers.\nCalvasina argued that retail interest in specific stocks is likely to ebb and flow, as it has done over the past year, but probably won’t fade away.\n“Unless the door closes (i.e. through a major regulatory change), we fail to see why retail investor interest in trading specific names will completely go way given how elevated cash on the sidelines is among consumers,” she wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317654220,"gmtCreate":1612447942460,"gmtModify":1703762016113,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571044813043268","authorIdStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317654220","repostId":"1162866028","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2072,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317652476,"gmtCreate":1612447809695,"gmtModify":1703762014082,"author":{"id":"3571044813043268","authorId":"3571044813043268","name":"ShermanGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f3e5401d85ec58882ea2fcfef4cb7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571044813043268","authorIdStr":"3571044813043268"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317652476","repostId":"2108719145","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}