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2021-07-01

Up up up

EV Stocks surged in Thursday morning trading<blockquote>周四早盘交易中电动汽车股飙升</blockquote>

2021-06-24

[贱笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-22

[惊讶]

One Mad Market & Six Cold Reality-Checks<blockquote>一个疯狂的市场和六个冷酷的现实检查</blockquote>

2021-06-18

What next?

Gold Got Crushed After the Fed’s Big Surprise. Here’s What Could Happen Next.<blockquote>美联储大吃一惊后，黄金遭受重创。以下是接下来可能发生的事情。</blockquote>

2021-06-16

Samsung phone

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-15

Costco

My 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的 3 只股票</blockquote>

2021-06-13

For rich people only

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-12

[得意]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-12

Nowadays people getting info from internet or social media

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-11

Yeah[得意]

China's Didi reveals U.S. IPO filing, sets stage for blockbuster New York float<blockquote>中国滴滴公布美国 IPO 文件，为纽约重磅上市奠定基础</blockquote>

2021-06-10

U not bad

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-09

WSB win

Clover Health Roars to Record as Short Sellers Get Burned<blockquote>随着卖空者被烧毁，Clover Health 创下纪录</blockquote>

2021-06-08

Yellen also hint the interest hike may happen soon

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-07

OMG

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-06

Comment

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-06

[Speechless]

Marqeta IPO: 5 things to know about the fintech company serving Square, DoorDash and others<blockquote>Marqeta IPO：关于这家为 Square、DoorDash 等公司提供服务的金融科技公司，您需要了解的 5 件事</blockquote>

2021-06-06

Open is also same

Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍然存在重大缺点</blockquote>

2021-06-05

Of coz it’s a matter of time...RS can also make the share price more than 100

Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>

2021-06-04

TSMC is big brother now

TSMC: Expanding Its Foundry Market Leadership<blockquote>台积电：扩大代工市场领导地位</blockquote>

2021-06-04

BHC ever more than $100 few years back!

抱歉，原内容已删除

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up up","listText":"Up up up","text":"Up up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158695522","repostId":"1175411154","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175411154","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625146583,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175411154?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 21:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV Stocks surged in Thursday morning trading<blockquote>周四早盘交易中电动汽车股飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175411154","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV Stocks surged in Thursday morning trading on Due to vehicle delivery.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and L","content":"<p>EV Stocks surged in Thursday morning trading&nbsp;on Due to vehicle delivery.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 6%.</p><p><blockquote>由于车辆交付，电动汽车股在周四早盘交易中飙升。特斯拉、蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车和理想汽车上涨 1% 至 6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a850dc2f94b465cace256883ee0685a8\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% year-over-year;</p><p><blockquote>蔚来2021年6月交付汽车8,083辆，同比增长116.1%；</blockquote></p><p> Xpeng&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;6,565 vehicles in June 2021, a record month with a 617% increase year-over-year;</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车在2021年6月交付了6,565辆汽车，创下历史新高，同比增长617%；</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street expects&nbsp;Tesla Inc. to report deliveries of roughly 200,000 vehicles in the latest quarter, which would be a milestone for the electric-car makerled by Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街预计特斯拉公司最近一个季度的交付量约为 20 万辆，这对于首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 制造的电动汽车来说将是一个里程碑。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV Stocks surged in Thursday morning trading<blockquote>周四早盘交易中电动汽车股飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV Stocks surged in Thursday morning trading<blockquote>周四早盘交易中电动汽车股飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-01 21:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>EV Stocks surged in Thursday morning trading&nbsp;on Due to vehicle delivery.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 6%.</p><p><blockquote>由于车辆交付，电动汽车股在周四早盘交易中飙升。特斯拉、蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车和理想汽车上涨 1% 至 6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a850dc2f94b465cace256883ee0685a8\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% year-over-year;</p><p><blockquote>蔚来2021年6月交付汽车8,083辆，同比增长116.1%；</blockquote></p><p> Xpeng&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;6,565 vehicles in June 2021, a record month with a 617% increase year-over-year;</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车在2021年6月交付了6,565辆汽车，创下历史新高，同比增长617%；</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street expects&nbsp;Tesla Inc. to report deliveries of roughly 200,000 vehicles in the latest quarter, which would be a milestone for the electric-car makerled by Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街预计特斯拉公司最近一个季度的交付量约为 20 万辆，这对于首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 制造的电动汽车来说将是一个里程碑。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车","NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175411154","content_text":"EV Stocks surged in Thursday morning trading on Due to vehicle delivery.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto climbed between 1% and 6%.\n\nNIO delivered 8,083 vehicles in June 2021, increasing by 116.1% year-over-year;\nXpeng delivered 6,565 vehicles in June 2021, a record month with a 617% increase year-over-year;\nWall Street expects Tesla Inc. to report deliveries of roughly 200,000 vehicles in the latest quarter, which would be a milestone for the electric-car makerled by Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126332421,"gmtCreate":1624544092663,"gmtModify":1631894043637,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[贱笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[贱笑]&nbsp;","text":"[贱笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126332421","repostId":"1155360226","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":129802451,"gmtCreate":1624368115873,"gmtModify":1631894043651,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129802451","repostId":"1145563175","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145563175","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624359605,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145563175?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"One Mad Market & Six Cold Reality-Checks<blockquote>一个疯狂的市场和六个冷酷的现实检查</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145563175","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Fact checking politicos, headlines and central bankers is one thing.Putting their \"facts\" into conte","content":"<p>Fact checking politicos, headlines and central bankers is one thing.<b>Putting their \"facts\" into context is another.</b></p><p><blockquote>核实政客、头条新闻和央行行长的事实是一回事。<b>把他们的“事实”放在上下文中是另一回事。</b></blockquote></p><p> Toward that end, it’s critical to place so-called “economic growth,” Treasury market growth, stock market growth, GDP growth and, of course, gold price growth into clearer perspective despite an insane global backdrop that is anything but clearly reported.</p><p><blockquote>为此，至关重要的是要将所谓的 “经济增长 ”、国债市场增长、股市增长、国内生产总值增长，当然还有金价增长置于更清晰的视角，尽管全球背景十分疯狂，但这些背景并没有得到明确报道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 1: The Rising Growth Headline</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 1：增长头条上升</b></blockquote></p><p> Recently, Biden’s economic advisor, Jared Bernstein, calmed the masses with yet another headline-making boast that the U.S. is “growing considerably faster” than their trading partners.</p><p><blockquote>最近，拜登的经济顾问贾里德-伯恩斯坦（Jared Bernstein）又一次头条新闻吹嘘说，美国的增长速度比他们的贸易伙伴快得多，这让群众平静下来。</blockquote></p><p> Fair enough.</p><p><blockquote>很公平。</blockquote></p><p> But given that the U.S. is running the largest deficits on historical record…</p><p><blockquote>但鉴于美国正面临历史记录中最大的赤字……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ac5ed804cb5613af2890f604dac56be\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> …such “growth” is not surprising.</p><p><blockquote>……这样的“增长”并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, bragging about growth on the back of extreme deficit spending is like a spoiled kid bragging about a new Porsche secretly purchased with his father’s credit card: It only looks good until the bill arrives and the car vanishes.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，以极端赤字支出为幌子吹嘘经济增长，就像一个被宠坏的孩子吹嘘用父亲的信用卡秘密购买的新保时捷一样： 只有在账单到来、汽车消失之前，它才会看起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> In a financial world gone mad, it’s critical to look under the hood of what passes for growth in particular or basic principles of price discovery, debt levels or supply and demand in general.</p><p><blockquote>在一个疯狂的金融世界里，至关重要的是要审视什么是增长，什么是价格发现的基本原则、债务水平或供求关系。</blockquote></p><p> In short: “Growth” driven by extreme debt is not growth at all–it’s just the headline surface shine on a sports car one can’t afford.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之： 由极端债务推动的 “增长 ”根本不是增长--它只是一辆买不起的跑车的表面光泽。</blockquote></p><p> And yet&nbsp;<b>the madness continues</b>…Take the U.S. Treasury market, for example.</p><p><blockquote>然而<b>疯狂仍在继续</b>……以美国国债市场为例。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 2: The Treasury “Market”?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 2：国债“市场”？</b></blockquote></p><p> How can anyone call the U.S. Treasury market a “market” when 56% of the $4.5T of bonds issued since last February have been bought by the Fed itself?</p><p><blockquote>自去年 2 月以来发行的 4.5 万亿美元债券中有 56% 是由美联储自己购买的，怎么会有人看涨期权美国国债市场呢？</blockquote></p><p> Sounds more like an insider price-fix than a “market,” no?</p><p><blockquote>听起来更像是内部操纵价格，而不是 “市场 ”，不是吗？</blockquote></p><p> Such context gives an entirely new meaning to the idea of “drinking your own Kool-aide” and ought to be a cool reminder that Treasury bonds in general, and bond yields in particular, are zombies masquerading as credit Olympians.</p><p><blockquote>这样的背景赋予了 “喝自己的 Kool-aide ”的想法全新的含义，并应该冷静地提醒人们，国债，尤其是债券收益率，是伪装成信贷奥林匹克的僵尸。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed, of course, will pretend that such “support” is as temporary as their “transitory inflation” meme, but most market realists understood long ago that more and crazier bond yield “support” is the only way for national debt bubbles (and IOU’s) to stay zombie-like alive.</p><p><blockquote>当然，美联储会假装这种 “支持 ”和他们的 “暂时性通胀 ”备忘录一样是暂时的，但大多数市场现实主义者早就明白，更多、更疯狂的债券收益率 “支持 ”是国债泡沫（和借据）像僵尸一样存活的唯一途径。</blockquote></p><p> In short, the better phrase for Treasury “support,” “accommodation,” or “stimulus” is simply: “Life Support.”</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，财政部 “支持 ”、 “通融 ”或 “刺激 ”的更好措辞很简单： “生命支持”。</blockquote></p><p> With central banks like the Fed continuing to create fiat currencies to monetize their unsustainable debt well into the distant future, we can safely foresee a further weakening of the USD and further strengthening of gold prices, mining stocks and key risk assets like tech and industrial stocks.</p><p><blockquote>随着美联储等央行在遥远的未来继续创造法定货币，以将其不可持续的债务货币化，我们可以有把握地预见美元将进一步走弱，金价、矿业股和科技和工业股等关键风险资产将进一步走强。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 3: Deflation is back?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景3：通货紧缩又回来了？</b></blockquote></p><p> Hardly.</p><p><blockquote>几乎不。</blockquote></p><p> Last week’s jaw-boning from Powell, Fisher and Bullard had the markets wondering if the Fed will be raising rates in the distant future.</p><p><blockquote>上周鲍威尔、费舍尔和布拉德的口诛笔伐让市场怀疑美联储是否会在遥远的未来加息。</blockquote></p><p> The very fact that Powell raised the issue is because the Fed is realizing that inflation is going to be sticky&nbsp;<b>rather than “transitory”</b>and thus they are already pretending to pose as Hawkish.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔之所以提出这个问题，是因为美联储意识到通胀将是棘手的<b>而不是“短暂的”</b>因此，他们已经在假装自己是鹰派。</blockquote></p><p> But if the Fed raises rates to quell real rather than “transitory” inflation, the markets and Uncle Sam will go into a tantrum. End of story.</p><p><blockquote>但是，如果美联储加息是为了平息实际通胀而不是 “暂时性 ”通胀，市场和山姆大叔就会大发脾气。故事结束。</blockquote></p><p> As I’ve written elsewhere: Pick your Fed poison—<b>tanking markets or surging inflation.</b>Eventually, we foresee both.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在其他地方写过的：选择你的美联储毒药--<b>市场下滑或通胀飙升。</b>最终，我们预见到了两者。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and fully aware that inflation, with some dips, is only going to trend higher, Powell is already using semantics to change the rules mid-game, now saying that rather than “allow” 2% inflation, they’ll settle for an “average” of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，鲍威尔充分意识到通货膨胀率会有所下降，只会走高，因此他已经在中途使用语义学改变了规则，现在他说，他们不会 “允许 ”2% 的通货膨胀率，而是满足于 2% 的 “平均 ”通货膨胀率。</blockquote></p><p> Translated into honest English, this just means expect more inflation around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>翻译成诚实的英语，这只是意味着预计更多的通货膨胀即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 4: Rising Stock Markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 4：股市上涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite reaching nosebleed levels which defy&nbsp;<i>every</i>&nbsp;traditional valuation ceiling, from CAPE ratios and Tobin ratios to book values and FCF data, the headlines remind us that stocks can go even higher—and they can indeed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管流鼻血的程度<i>每一</i>传统的估值上限，从开普比率和托宾比率到账面价值和自由现金流数据，头条新闻提醒我们，股票可以走得更高——而且确实可以。</blockquote></p><p> But context, as well as history, reminds us that the bigger the bubble the bigger the mean-reverting fall.</p><p><blockquote>但背景和历史都提醒我们，泡沫越大，均值回归的下跌就越大。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1586e90684f7b8ae0525c04b1fa4bc7\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>No Treasure in Treasuries = Lot’s of Air in Stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>国库中没有宝藏 = 股票中充满空气</b></blockquote></p><p> Based upon the objective facts above, we now know that the only primary buyers showing up at U.S. Treasury auctions is the Fed itself.</p><p><blockquote>基于以上客观事实，我们现在知道，出现在美国国债拍卖中的唯一主要买家是美联储本身。</blockquote></p><p> This is because the rest of the world (Asia, Europe etc.) doesn’t want them.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为世界其他地区（亚洲、欧洲等）不想要它们。</blockquote></p><p> The next question is “why”?</p><p><blockquote>下一个问题是“为什么”？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is multiple yet simple.</p><p><blockquote>答案是多重而简单的。</blockquote></p><p> First, and despite the open myth of American Exceptionalism, investors in other countries can actually think, read and count for themselves, which means they’re not simply trusting the Fed—or its IOU’s– blindly.</p><p><blockquote>首先，尽管美国例外论是公开的神话，但其他国家的投资者实际上可以自己思考、阅读和计算，这意味着他们并不是盲目地信任美联储或其借据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Stated otherwise, they are not buying the “transitory inflation” or “strong USD” story pouring recently out of the FOMC mouthpieces.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，他们并不相信最近从联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）口中涌出的 “暂时性通胀 ”或 “强势美元 ”的说法。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation is not only rising in the U.S., it’s also creeping up elsewhere—even in Japan, but especially in China. This is largely because the U.S. exports its inflation (and debased dollars) offshore via trade and fiscal deficits.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀不仅在美国上升，在其他地方也在攀升--甚至在日本，尤其是在中国。这在很大程度上是因为美国通过贸易和财政赤字将其通货膨胀（和贬值的美元）输出到海外。</blockquote></p><p> Such deliberate inflation exporting by the U.S. places those countries (creditors) that lent money to Uncle Sam into a dilemma: They can either 1) let their currencies inflate alongside the dollar (hardly fun), or 2) try to quell the&nbsp;<i>outflow</i>&nbsp;of exported (debased) US dollars to save their own currencies from further debasement.</p><p><blockquote>美国这种蓄意的通货膨胀出口让那些借钱给山姆大叔的国家（债权人）陷入了两难境地：他们要么 1) 让本国货币与美元一起升值（几乎没有乐趣），要么 2) 试图平息<i>流出</i>出口（贬值）美元，以防止本国货币进一步贬值。</blockquote></p><p> Option 2, of course, is the better option, which means foreign investors need to buy something more appealing than discredited U.S. Treasuries.</p><p><blockquote>当然，方案2是更好的选择，这意味着外国投资者需要购买比名誉扫地的美国国债更具吸引力的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Sadly, ironically, and yet factually, the only assets better than&nbsp;<i>bogus</i>&nbsp;US Treasuries are&nbsp;<i>bloated</i>&nbsp;U.S. stocks.</p><p><blockquote>可悲的是，讽刺的是，但事实上，唯一比<i>假的</i>美国国债是<i>臃肿的</i>美国股票。</blockquote></p><p> In short, nosebleed-priced US stocks are still the lesser of the two US evils, and foreigners are therefore buying/seeing stocks as a better hedge against the debased USD than sovereign bonds.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，定价过高的美国股票仍然是美国两害相权取其轻，因此外国人购买/将股票视为比主权债券更好的对冲美元贬值。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t believe me?</p><p><blockquote>不相信我？</blockquote></p><p> See for yourself—the rest of the world is adding lots of air to the U.S. equity bubble:</p><p><blockquote>你自己看看——世界其他国家正在给美国股市泡沫增加大量空气：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc5b73212bd7c3126d6a130e88169139\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is&nbsp;<i>contextually</i>&nbsp;troublesome for a number of reasons.</p><p><blockquote>这是<i>上下文</i>麻烦有很多原因。</blockquote></p><p> First, it means the declining US of A has gone from hocking its bonds to the rest of the world to hocking it stocks to the rest of the world (i.e., China…).</p><p><blockquote>首先，这意味着美国的衰落已经从向世界其他地方抛售债券变成了向世界其他地方抛售股票（即中国……）。</blockquote></p><p> Longer term, this simply means that via direct stock ownership, foreigners will slowly own more of corporate America than, well America…</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，这仅仅意味着通过直接持股，外国人将慢慢拥有比美国更多的美国企业股份……</blockquote></p><p> As for this slow gutting of the once-great America to foreign buyers, don’t blame the data. Blame your Fed and other policy makers (including labor off-shoring CEO’s) for selling-out America and pretending debt can be magically solved with magical (fake) money creation.</p><p><blockquote>至于曾经伟大的美国被外国买家慢慢掏空，不要责怪数据。责怪美联储和其他政策制定者（包括劳动力外包首席执行官）出卖美国，并假装债务可以通过神奇的（假）货币创造神奇地解决。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, the second pesky little problem with stocks rising beyond the pale of sanity, earnings and honest FCF data is a thing called volatility—i.e., market seasickness.</p><p><blockquote>当然，股票上涨超出理智、盈利和诚实的自由现金流数据的第二个讨厌的小问题是一种叫做波动性的东西——即市场晕船。</blockquote></p><p> Nothing goes in a straight line, including the dollar or the market. There will be swings.</p><p><blockquote>没有什么是直线的，包括美元和市场。会有波动。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, the short on the USD is the highest it has been in four years.</p><p><blockquote>目前，美元空头是四年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c420ec0af0df42eabb7a3d248da4db10\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Yet if, by some chance, the Fed ever attempts to taper or raise rates, all those foreign dollars piling into U.S. stocks (above) create a bubble that always pops, as do the foregoing dollar shorts, which get squeezed.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果美联储有机会试图缩减或加息，所有这些涌入美国股票的外币（上图）就会产生一个总是破裂的泡沫，就像前面提到的美元空头一样，受到挤压。</blockquote></p><p> That could cause a massive sell-off in U.S. equity markets as foreigners sell their stocks to buy more dollars.</p><p><blockquote>随着外国人抛售股票以购买更多美元，这可能会导致美国股市大规模抛售。</blockquote></p><p> In short, there’s a lot of different needles pointing at the current equity bubble, and a correction within the next month or so is more than likely.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，有很多不同的指针指向当前的股票泡沫，在未来一个月左右的时间内出现回调的可能性很大。</blockquote></p><p> The sharpest of those needles, by the way, is the appallingly comical level of U.S. margin debt (i.e. leverage)&nbsp;<i>not</i>&nbsp;making the headlines yet&nbsp;<i>now</i>&nbsp;making all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，这些针中最锋利的是美国保证金债务（即杠杆）的惊人水平<i>不</i>成为头条新闻<i>现在</i>创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021f71bd7e78a1c275a9c9d74691c525\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As a reminder, whenever margin debt peaks (above), markets tank soon thereafter, as anyone who remembers the dot.com and sub-prime market fiascos of yore can attest.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，每当保证金债务达到峰值（上图）时，市场很快就会暴跌，任何记得过去互联网和次级市场惨败的人都可以证明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Just saying…</p><p><blockquote>只是说……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 5: The Dark Side of “Surging” GDP Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 5：“飙升”GDP 增长的阴暗面</b></blockquote></p><p> The World Bank recently made its own headlines projecting 5.6% global GDP growth, the fastest seen in 80 years.</p><p><blockquote>世界银行最近成为头条新闻，预测全球GDP增长5.6%，为80年来最快。</blockquote></p><p> Good stuff, right?</p><p><blockquote>好东西，对吧？</blockquote></p><p> Well, not when placed into&nbsp;<i>context</i>…</p><p><blockquote>嗯，当放在<i>上下文</i>…</blockquote></p><p> The last time we saw 5.6% global GDP growth was during a&nbsp;<i>global world war</i>.</p><p><blockquote>我们上一次看到5.6%的全球GDP增长是在<i>全球世界大战</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Obviously, when the world is in a state of global military rubble, growth of any kind is likely to “surge” from such an historical (and horrific) baseline.</p><p><blockquote>显然，当世界处于全球军事废墟之中时，任何形式的增长都有可能从这样一个历史（和可怕）的基线 “激增 ”。</blockquote></p><p> Coming out of World War II, everyone, including the U.S. was in debt. World wars, after all, can do that…</p><p><blockquote>二战结束后，包括美国在内的每个人都负债累累。毕竟，世界大战可以做到这一点……</blockquote></p><p> As the victorious and civilization-saving U.S. came out of that war, it made some justifiable sense to de-lever that noble yet extreme debt by printing money, repressing bond yields and stimulating GDP growth.</p><p><blockquote>随着胜利和拯救文明的美国从那场战争中走出来，通过印钞、抑制债券收益率和刺激GDP增长来降低高贵但极端的债务杠杆化在一定程度上是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> What followed was at least a defendable 40-year stretch in which US nominal GDP ran 500-800 bps above US Treasury yields.</p><p><blockquote>接下来的至少是一个站得住脚的40年，在此期间，美国名义GDP比美国国债收益率高出500-800个基点。</blockquote></p><p> In short, bond-holders got slammed, but the cause, crisis and re-building after defeating the Axis powers justified the sacrifice.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，债券持有人受到了打击，但事业、危机和击败轴心国后的重建证明了这种牺牲是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> The same, however, can not be said today as bond-holders get crushed yet again in a new-abnormal in which GDP will greatly (and similarly) outpace long-term bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如今情况却并非如此，因为债券持有者再次陷入一种新的异常现象，即GDP将大大（类似地）超过长期债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Needless to say, current policy makers, the very foxes who put the global economic henhouse into the current pile of debt of rubble, like to blame this on COVID rather their bathroom mirrors.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，当前的政策制定者，正是那些把全球经济鸡舍扔进当前债务废墟堆的狐狸，喜欢把这归咎于COVID，而不是他们的浴室镜子。</blockquote></p><p> Ironically, however, central bankers (as opposed to the&nbsp;<i>Wehrmacht</i>, the Japanese Empire or Italy’s Mussolini) managed to do as much harm to the global economy&nbsp;<i>today</i>&nbsp;(with deficit policies and extend-and-pretend money printers) as Germany’s&nbsp;<i>Blitzkrieg</i>&nbsp;or Hirohito’s Banzai raids did in the 1940’s.</p><p><blockquote>然而，具有讽刺意味的是，央行行长（相对于<i>德国国防军</i>日本帝国或意大利的墨索里尼）对全球经济造成了同样大的损害。<i>当今</i>（采取赤字政策和假装印钞机）作为德国的<i>闪电战</i>或者裕仁在 20 世纪 40 年代的万岁突袭。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to context, can or should we really be comparing a global flu (death toll 3.75M) to a global war (death toll 85 million)?</p><p><blockquote>说到背景，我们真的可以或应该将一场全球流感（死亡人数375万）与一场全球战争（死亡人数8500万）进行比较吗？</blockquote></p><p> The policy makers would like&nbsp;<i>you</i>&nbsp;to think so.</p><p><blockquote>政策制定者希望<i>你</i>这么想。</blockquote></p><p> Folks like Mnuchin (last year) or Yellen, Powell and the IMF (this year), are in fact trying to convince themselves and the world that the war against COVID was the real&nbsp;<i>casus belli</i>&nbsp;(reason for a justifiable war) of our current debt distress—equal in scope to World War II in its drastic impact on the financial world.</p><p><blockquote>像姆努钦（去年）或耶伦、鲍威尔和国际货币基金组织（今年）这样的人实际上都在试图说服自己和世界，对抗新冠病毒的战争是真实的<i>战争理由</i>（一场正当战争的理由）我们当前的债务困境——就其对金融世界的巨大影响而言，其范围与第二次世界大战相当。</blockquote></p><p> But regardless of anyone’s views on the COVID “War” or its questionable policy reactions, comparing its economic impact to that of World War II is an insult to both history and military metaphors.</p><p><blockquote>但是，无论任何人对科维德 “战争 ”的看法或其可疑的政策反应如何，将其经济影响与第二次世界大战相提并论都是对历史和军事隐喻的侮辱。</blockquote></p><p> The simple, objective and mathematically-confirmed fact is that the global economy was&nbsp;<i>already</i>&nbsp;in a debt crisis long&nbsp;<i>before</i>&nbsp;the first Corona headline of early 2020.</p><p><blockquote>简单、客观且经过数学验证的事实是，全球经济<i>已经</i>长期陷入债务危机<i>以前</i>2020年初的第一个电晕头条。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/173b90a9931417cc655b6129fc7dc38c\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Today, US debt to GDP is at levels it has not seen since that tragic and Second World War, and it’s projected to go much, much higher.</p><p><blockquote>如今，美国债务占国内生产总值的比重已达到自那场悲惨的第二次世界大战以来从未见过的水平，而且预计还会更高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e71ae4475b3449c8833ca918ddbd82\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> So, just in case you still think the Fed can and will meaningfully raise rates to fight obvious inflation, as it did in the 1970’s or 1980’s, think again.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你仍然认为美联储能够而且将会像上世纪 70 年代或 80 年代那样，有意义地加息以对抗明显的通货膨胀，请再想想。</blockquote></p><p> In the 1970’s and 1980’s US debt/GDP was 30%. Today it’s 130%.</p><p><blockquote>在 20 世纪 70 年代和 80 年代，美国债务与国内生产总值的比率为 30%。今天是 130%。</blockquote></p><p> Given this self-inflicted (rather than COVID-blamed) reality, the Fed simply can’t afford to raise rates. Period. Full stop.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种自我造成的（而不是科维德的）现实，美联储根本无力加息。周期。句号。</blockquote></p><p> But as my colleague, Egon von Greyerz reminds, that by no means suggests that rates can’t and won’t rise.</p><p><blockquote>但正如我的同事埃贡-冯-格雷尔茨（Egon von Greyerz）提醒的那样，这绝不意味着利率不能也不会上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed (and other central banks) may be powerful, but they are not divine. In short, there’s a limit to their powers to simply “control” rates with a mouse-click.</p><p><blockquote>美联储（和其他央行）可能很强大，但它们不是神。简而言之，他们仅仅通过点击鼠标来 “控制 ”利率的能力是有限的。</blockquote></p><p> At some point, there’s not enough credible fake money to manage the yield curve—especially on the long end.</p><p><blockquote>在某些时候，没有足够可信的假币来管理收益率曲线--尤其是在长期收益率曲线上。</blockquote></p><p> As more printed and&nbsp;<b>tanking currencies</b>&nbsp;try to purchase lower yields and rates, eventually the entire experiment fails.</p><p><blockquote>随着更多的印刷和<b>加注货币</b>试图购买更低的收益率和利率，最终整个实验失败。</blockquote></p><p> At that critical point, rates spike, inflation raises its ugly head and the central bankers look for something other than themselves to blame as the rest of the world stares at worthless currencies being replaced by comical central bank digital dollars.</p><p><blockquote>在那个关键时刻，利率飙升，通货膨胀抬起了丑陋的头，当世界其他地方都在盯着毫无价值的货币被滑稽的央行数字美元所取代时，央行行长们正在寻找自己以外的东西来指责。</blockquote></p><p> Wonderful…</p><p><blockquote>太棒了…</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 6: That Barbaric Relic?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景6：那个野蛮的遗迹？</b></blockquote></p><p> What the foregoing inflation and rate contexts means is that in the years ahead, inflation will run higher and rates will run (be forced/controlled) lower until both rates and inflation spike together.</p><p><blockquote>上述通货膨胀和利率背景意味着，在未来几年，通货膨胀将走高，利率将走低（被迫/控制），直到利率和通货膨胀一起飙升。</blockquote></p><p> This further means that&nbsp;<i>real</i>&nbsp;rates (i.e., those adjusted for inflation) could run as deep as -5% to -10% in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>这进一步意味着<i>真的</i>未来几年，利率（即根据通货膨胀调整的利率）可能会低至-5%至-10%。</blockquote></p><p> Such negative real rate levels could easily surpass those seen in the 70’s and 80’s, which means gold (and silver), both of whom love negative real rates, has nowhere to go but up, up and away in this totally debt-distorted backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>这样的负实际利率水平很容易超过 70 年代和 80 年代的水平，这意味着黄金（和白银）都喜欢负实际利率，但在这种完全债务扭曲的背景下，黄金（和白银）别无选择，只能上涨、上涨、下跌。</blockquote></p><p> How’s that for context?</p><p><blockquote>这对上下文有什么影响？</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One Mad Market & Six Cold Reality-Checks<blockquote>一个疯狂的市场和六个冷酷的现实检查</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne Mad Market & Six Cold Reality-Checks<blockquote>一个疯狂的市场和六个冷酷的现实检查</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 19:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fact checking politicos, headlines and central bankers is one thing.<b>Putting their \"facts\" into context is another.</b></p><p><blockquote>核实政客、头条新闻和央行行长的事实是一回事。<b>把他们的“事实”放在上下文中是另一回事。</b></blockquote></p><p> Toward that end, it’s critical to place so-called “economic growth,” Treasury market growth, stock market growth, GDP growth and, of course, gold price growth into clearer perspective despite an insane global backdrop that is anything but clearly reported.</p><p><blockquote>为此，至关重要的是要将所谓的 “经济增长 ”、国债市场增长、股市增长、国内生产总值增长，当然还有金价增长置于更清晰的视角，尽管全球背景十分疯狂，但这些背景并没有得到明确报道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 1: The Rising Growth Headline</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 1：增长头条上升</b></blockquote></p><p> Recently, Biden’s economic advisor, Jared Bernstein, calmed the masses with yet another headline-making boast that the U.S. is “growing considerably faster” than their trading partners.</p><p><blockquote>最近，拜登的经济顾问贾里德-伯恩斯坦（Jared Bernstein）又一次头条新闻吹嘘说，美国的增长速度比他们的贸易伙伴快得多，这让群众平静下来。</blockquote></p><p> Fair enough.</p><p><blockquote>很公平。</blockquote></p><p> But given that the U.S. is running the largest deficits on historical record…</p><p><blockquote>但鉴于美国正面临历史记录中最大的赤字……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ac5ed804cb5613af2890f604dac56be\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> …such “growth” is not surprising.</p><p><blockquote>……这样的“增长”并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, bragging about growth on the back of extreme deficit spending is like a spoiled kid bragging about a new Porsche secretly purchased with his father’s credit card: It only looks good until the bill arrives and the car vanishes.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，以极端赤字支出为幌子吹嘘经济增长，就像一个被宠坏的孩子吹嘘用父亲的信用卡秘密购买的新保时捷一样： 只有在账单到来、汽车消失之前，它才会看起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> In a financial world gone mad, it’s critical to look under the hood of what passes for growth in particular or basic principles of price discovery, debt levels or supply and demand in general.</p><p><blockquote>在一个疯狂的金融世界里，至关重要的是要审视什么是增长，什么是价格发现的基本原则、债务水平或供求关系。</blockquote></p><p> In short: “Growth” driven by extreme debt is not growth at all–it’s just the headline surface shine on a sports car one can’t afford.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之： 由极端债务推动的 “增长 ”根本不是增长--它只是一辆买不起的跑车的表面光泽。</blockquote></p><p> And yet&nbsp;<b>the madness continues</b>…Take the U.S. Treasury market, for example.</p><p><blockquote>然而<b>疯狂仍在继续</b>……以美国国债市场为例。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 2: The Treasury “Market”?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 2：国债“市场”？</b></blockquote></p><p> How can anyone call the U.S. Treasury market a “market” when 56% of the $4.5T of bonds issued since last February have been bought by the Fed itself?</p><p><blockquote>自去年 2 月以来发行的 4.5 万亿美元债券中有 56% 是由美联储自己购买的，怎么会有人看涨期权美国国债市场呢？</blockquote></p><p> Sounds more like an insider price-fix than a “market,” no?</p><p><blockquote>听起来更像是内部操纵价格，而不是 “市场 ”，不是吗？</blockquote></p><p> Such context gives an entirely new meaning to the idea of “drinking your own Kool-aide” and ought to be a cool reminder that Treasury bonds in general, and bond yields in particular, are zombies masquerading as credit Olympians.</p><p><blockquote>这样的背景赋予了 “喝自己的 Kool-aide ”的想法全新的含义，并应该冷静地提醒人们，国债，尤其是债券收益率，是伪装成信贷奥林匹克的僵尸。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed, of course, will pretend that such “support” is as temporary as their “transitory inflation” meme, but most market realists understood long ago that more and crazier bond yield “support” is the only way for national debt bubbles (and IOU’s) to stay zombie-like alive.</p><p><blockquote>当然，美联储会假装这种 “支持 ”和他们的 “暂时性通胀 ”备忘录一样是暂时的，但大多数市场现实主义者早就明白，更多、更疯狂的债券收益率 “支持 ”是国债泡沫（和借据）像僵尸一样存活的唯一途径。</blockquote></p><p> In short, the better phrase for Treasury “support,” “accommodation,” or “stimulus” is simply: “Life Support.”</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，财政部 “支持 ”、 “通融 ”或 “刺激 ”的更好措辞很简单： “生命支持”。</blockquote></p><p> With central banks like the Fed continuing to create fiat currencies to monetize their unsustainable debt well into the distant future, we can safely foresee a further weakening of the USD and further strengthening of gold prices, mining stocks and key risk assets like tech and industrial stocks.</p><p><blockquote>随着美联储等央行在遥远的未来继续创造法定货币，以将其不可持续的债务货币化，我们可以有把握地预见美元将进一步走弱，金价、矿业股和科技和工业股等关键风险资产将进一步走强。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 3: Deflation is back?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景3：通货紧缩又回来了？</b></blockquote></p><p> Hardly.</p><p><blockquote>几乎不。</blockquote></p><p> Last week’s jaw-boning from Powell, Fisher and Bullard had the markets wondering if the Fed will be raising rates in the distant future.</p><p><blockquote>上周鲍威尔、费舍尔和布拉德的口诛笔伐让市场怀疑美联储是否会在遥远的未来加息。</blockquote></p><p> The very fact that Powell raised the issue is because the Fed is realizing that inflation is going to be sticky&nbsp;<b>rather than “transitory”</b>and thus they are already pretending to pose as Hawkish.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔之所以提出这个问题，是因为美联储意识到通胀将是棘手的<b>而不是“短暂的”</b>因此，他们已经在假装自己是鹰派。</blockquote></p><p> But if the Fed raises rates to quell real rather than “transitory” inflation, the markets and Uncle Sam will go into a tantrum. End of story.</p><p><blockquote>但是，如果美联储加息是为了平息实际通胀而不是 “暂时性 ”通胀，市场和山姆大叔就会大发脾气。故事结束。</blockquote></p><p> As I’ve written elsewhere: Pick your Fed poison—<b>tanking markets or surging inflation.</b>Eventually, we foresee both.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在其他地方写过的：选择你的美联储毒药--<b>市场下滑或通胀飙升。</b>最终，我们预见到了两者。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and fully aware that inflation, with some dips, is only going to trend higher, Powell is already using semantics to change the rules mid-game, now saying that rather than “allow” 2% inflation, they’ll settle for an “average” of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，鲍威尔充分意识到通货膨胀率会有所下降，只会走高，因此他已经在中途使用语义学改变了规则，现在他说，他们不会 “允许 ”2% 的通货膨胀率，而是满足于 2% 的 “平均 ”通货膨胀率。</blockquote></p><p> Translated into honest English, this just means expect more inflation around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>翻译成诚实的英语，这只是意味着预计更多的通货膨胀即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 4: Rising Stock Markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 4：股市上涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite reaching nosebleed levels which defy&nbsp;<i>every</i>&nbsp;traditional valuation ceiling, from CAPE ratios and Tobin ratios to book values and FCF data, the headlines remind us that stocks can go even higher—and they can indeed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管流鼻血的程度<i>每一</i>传统的估值上限，从开普比率和托宾比率到账面价值和自由现金流数据，头条新闻提醒我们，股票可以走得更高——而且确实可以。</blockquote></p><p> But context, as well as history, reminds us that the bigger the bubble the bigger the mean-reverting fall.</p><p><blockquote>但背景和历史都提醒我们，泡沫越大，均值回归的下跌就越大。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1586e90684f7b8ae0525c04b1fa4bc7\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>No Treasure in Treasuries = Lot’s of Air in Stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>国库中没有宝藏 = 股票中充满空气</b></blockquote></p><p> Based upon the objective facts above, we now know that the only primary buyers showing up at U.S. Treasury auctions is the Fed itself.</p><p><blockquote>基于以上客观事实，我们现在知道，出现在美国国债拍卖中的唯一主要买家是美联储本身。</blockquote></p><p> This is because the rest of the world (Asia, Europe etc.) doesn’t want them.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为世界其他地区（亚洲、欧洲等）不想要它们。</blockquote></p><p> The next question is “why”?</p><p><blockquote>下一个问题是“为什么”？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is multiple yet simple.</p><p><blockquote>答案是多重而简单的。</blockquote></p><p> First, and despite the open myth of American Exceptionalism, investors in other countries can actually think, read and count for themselves, which means they’re not simply trusting the Fed—or its IOU’s– blindly.</p><p><blockquote>首先，尽管美国例外论是公开的神话，但其他国家的投资者实际上可以自己思考、阅读和计算，这意味着他们并不是盲目地信任美联储或其借据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Stated otherwise, they are not buying the “transitory inflation” or “strong USD” story pouring recently out of the FOMC mouthpieces.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，他们并不相信最近从联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）口中涌出的 “暂时性通胀 ”或 “强势美元 ”的说法。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation is not only rising in the U.S., it’s also creeping up elsewhere—even in Japan, but especially in China. This is largely because the U.S. exports its inflation (and debased dollars) offshore via trade and fiscal deficits.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀不仅在美国上升，在其他地方也在攀升--甚至在日本，尤其是在中国。这在很大程度上是因为美国通过贸易和财政赤字将其通货膨胀（和贬值的美元）输出到海外。</blockquote></p><p> Such deliberate inflation exporting by the U.S. places those countries (creditors) that lent money to Uncle Sam into a dilemma: They can either 1) let their currencies inflate alongside the dollar (hardly fun), or 2) try to quell the&nbsp;<i>outflow</i>&nbsp;of exported (debased) US dollars to save their own currencies from further debasement.</p><p><blockquote>美国这种蓄意的通货膨胀出口让那些借钱给山姆大叔的国家（债权人）陷入了两难境地：他们要么 1) 让本国货币与美元一起升值（几乎没有乐趣），要么 2) 试图平息<i>流出</i>出口（贬值）美元，以防止本国货币进一步贬值。</blockquote></p><p> Option 2, of course, is the better option, which means foreign investors need to buy something more appealing than discredited U.S. Treasuries.</p><p><blockquote>当然，方案2是更好的选择，这意味着外国投资者需要购买比名誉扫地的美国国债更具吸引力的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Sadly, ironically, and yet factually, the only assets better than&nbsp;<i>bogus</i>&nbsp;US Treasuries are&nbsp;<i>bloated</i>&nbsp;U.S. stocks.</p><p><blockquote>可悲的是，讽刺的是，但事实上，唯一比<i>假的</i>美国国债是<i>臃肿的</i>美国股票。</blockquote></p><p> In short, nosebleed-priced US stocks are still the lesser of the two US evils, and foreigners are therefore buying/seeing stocks as a better hedge against the debased USD than sovereign bonds.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，定价过高的美国股票仍然是美国两害相权取其轻，因此外国人购买/将股票视为比主权债券更好的对冲美元贬值。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t believe me?</p><p><blockquote>不相信我？</blockquote></p><p> See for yourself—the rest of the world is adding lots of air to the U.S. equity bubble:</p><p><blockquote>你自己看看——世界其他国家正在给美国股市泡沫增加大量空气：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc5b73212bd7c3126d6a130e88169139\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is&nbsp;<i>contextually</i>&nbsp;troublesome for a number of reasons.</p><p><blockquote>这是<i>上下文</i>麻烦有很多原因。</blockquote></p><p> First, it means the declining US of A has gone from hocking its bonds to the rest of the world to hocking it stocks to the rest of the world (i.e., China…).</p><p><blockquote>首先，这意味着美国的衰落已经从向世界其他地方抛售债券变成了向世界其他地方抛售股票（即中国……）。</blockquote></p><p> Longer term, this simply means that via direct stock ownership, foreigners will slowly own more of corporate America than, well America…</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，这仅仅意味着通过直接持股，外国人将慢慢拥有比美国更多的美国企业股份……</blockquote></p><p> As for this slow gutting of the once-great America to foreign buyers, don’t blame the data. Blame your Fed and other policy makers (including labor off-shoring CEO’s) for selling-out America and pretending debt can be magically solved with magical (fake) money creation.</p><p><blockquote>至于曾经伟大的美国被外国买家慢慢掏空，不要责怪数据。责怪美联储和其他政策制定者（包括劳动力外包首席执行官）出卖美国，并假装债务可以通过神奇的（假）货币创造神奇地解决。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, the second pesky little problem with stocks rising beyond the pale of sanity, earnings and honest FCF data is a thing called volatility—i.e., market seasickness.</p><p><blockquote>当然，股票上涨超出理智、盈利和诚实的自由现金流数据的第二个讨厌的小问题是一种叫做波动性的东西——即市场晕船。</blockquote></p><p> Nothing goes in a straight line, including the dollar or the market. There will be swings.</p><p><blockquote>没有什么是直线的，包括美元和市场。会有波动。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, the short on the USD is the highest it has been in four years.</p><p><blockquote>目前，美元空头是四年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c420ec0af0df42eabb7a3d248da4db10\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Yet if, by some chance, the Fed ever attempts to taper or raise rates, all those foreign dollars piling into U.S. stocks (above) create a bubble that always pops, as do the foregoing dollar shorts, which get squeezed.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果美联储有机会试图缩减或加息，所有这些涌入美国股票的外币（上图）就会产生一个总是破裂的泡沫，就像前面提到的美元空头一样，受到挤压。</blockquote></p><p> That could cause a massive sell-off in U.S. equity markets as foreigners sell their stocks to buy more dollars.</p><p><blockquote>随着外国人抛售股票以购买更多美元，这可能会导致美国股市大规模抛售。</blockquote></p><p> In short, there’s a lot of different needles pointing at the current equity bubble, and a correction within the next month or so is more than likely.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，有很多不同的指针指向当前的股票泡沫，在未来一个月左右的时间内出现回调的可能性很大。</blockquote></p><p> The sharpest of those needles, by the way, is the appallingly comical level of U.S. margin debt (i.e. leverage)&nbsp;<i>not</i>&nbsp;making the headlines yet&nbsp;<i>now</i>&nbsp;making all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，这些针中最锋利的是美国保证金债务（即杠杆）的惊人水平<i>不</i>成为头条新闻<i>现在</i>创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021f71bd7e78a1c275a9c9d74691c525\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As a reminder, whenever margin debt peaks (above), markets tank soon thereafter, as anyone who remembers the dot.com and sub-prime market fiascos of yore can attest.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，每当保证金债务达到峰值（上图）时，市场很快就会暴跌，任何记得过去互联网和次级市场惨败的人都可以证明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Just saying…</p><p><blockquote>只是说……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 5: The Dark Side of “Surging” GDP Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 5：“飙升”GDP 增长的阴暗面</b></blockquote></p><p> The World Bank recently made its own headlines projecting 5.6% global GDP growth, the fastest seen in 80 years.</p><p><blockquote>世界银行最近成为头条新闻，预测全球GDP增长5.6%，为80年来最快。</blockquote></p><p> Good stuff, right?</p><p><blockquote>好东西，对吧？</blockquote></p><p> Well, not when placed into&nbsp;<i>context</i>…</p><p><blockquote>嗯，当放在<i>上下文</i>…</blockquote></p><p> The last time we saw 5.6% global GDP growth was during a&nbsp;<i>global world war</i>.</p><p><blockquote>我们上一次看到5.6%的全球GDP增长是在<i>全球世界大战</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Obviously, when the world is in a state of global military rubble, growth of any kind is likely to “surge” from such an historical (and horrific) baseline.</p><p><blockquote>显然，当世界处于全球军事废墟之中时，任何形式的增长都有可能从这样一个历史（和可怕）的基线 “激增 ”。</blockquote></p><p> Coming out of World War II, everyone, including the U.S. was in debt. World wars, after all, can do that…</p><p><blockquote>二战结束后，包括美国在内的每个人都负债累累。毕竟，世界大战可以做到这一点……</blockquote></p><p> As the victorious and civilization-saving U.S. came out of that war, it made some justifiable sense to de-lever that noble yet extreme debt by printing money, repressing bond yields and stimulating GDP growth.</p><p><blockquote>随着胜利和拯救文明的美国从那场战争中走出来，通过印钞、抑制债券收益率和刺激GDP增长来降低高贵但极端的债务杠杆化在一定程度上是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> What followed was at least a defendable 40-year stretch in which US nominal GDP ran 500-800 bps above US Treasury yields.</p><p><blockquote>接下来的至少是一个站得住脚的40年，在此期间，美国名义GDP比美国国债收益率高出500-800个基点。</blockquote></p><p> In short, bond-holders got slammed, but the cause, crisis and re-building after defeating the Axis powers justified the sacrifice.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，债券持有人受到了打击，但事业、危机和击败轴心国后的重建证明了这种牺牲是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> The same, however, can not be said today as bond-holders get crushed yet again in a new-abnormal in which GDP will greatly (and similarly) outpace long-term bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如今情况却并非如此，因为债券持有者再次陷入一种新的异常现象，即GDP将大大（类似地）超过长期债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Needless to say, current policy makers, the very foxes who put the global economic henhouse into the current pile of debt of rubble, like to blame this on COVID rather their bathroom mirrors.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，当前的政策制定者，正是那些把全球经济鸡舍扔进当前债务废墟堆的狐狸，喜欢把这归咎于COVID，而不是他们的浴室镜子。</blockquote></p><p> Ironically, however, central bankers (as opposed to the&nbsp;<i>Wehrmacht</i>, the Japanese Empire or Italy’s Mussolini) managed to do as much harm to the global economy&nbsp;<i>today</i>&nbsp;(with deficit policies and extend-and-pretend money printers) as Germany’s&nbsp;<i>Blitzkrieg</i>&nbsp;or Hirohito’s Banzai raids did in the 1940’s.</p><p><blockquote>然而，具有讽刺意味的是，央行行长（相对于<i>德国国防军</i>日本帝国或意大利的墨索里尼）对全球经济造成了同样大的损害。<i>当今</i>（采取赤字政策和假装印钞机）作为德国的<i>闪电战</i>或者裕仁在 20 世纪 40 年代的万岁突袭。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to context, can or should we really be comparing a global flu (death toll 3.75M) to a global war (death toll 85 million)?</p><p><blockquote>说到背景，我们真的可以或应该将一场全球流感（死亡人数375万）与一场全球战争（死亡人数8500万）进行比较吗？</blockquote></p><p> The policy makers would like&nbsp;<i>you</i>&nbsp;to think so.</p><p><blockquote>政策制定者希望<i>你</i>这么想。</blockquote></p><p> Folks like Mnuchin (last year) or Yellen, Powell and the IMF (this year), are in fact trying to convince themselves and the world that the war against COVID was the real&nbsp;<i>casus belli</i>&nbsp;(reason for a justifiable war) of our current debt distress—equal in scope to World War II in its drastic impact on the financial world.</p><p><blockquote>像姆努钦（去年）或耶伦、鲍威尔和国际货币基金组织（今年）这样的人实际上都在试图说服自己和世界，对抗新冠病毒的战争是真实的<i>战争理由</i>（一场正当战争的理由）我们当前的债务困境——就其对金融世界的巨大影响而言，其范围与第二次世界大战相当。</blockquote></p><p> But regardless of anyone’s views on the COVID “War” or its questionable policy reactions, comparing its economic impact to that of World War II is an insult to both history and military metaphors.</p><p><blockquote>但是，无论任何人对科维德 “战争 ”的看法或其可疑的政策反应如何，将其经济影响与第二次世界大战相提并论都是对历史和军事隐喻的侮辱。</blockquote></p><p> The simple, objective and mathematically-confirmed fact is that the global economy was&nbsp;<i>already</i>&nbsp;in a debt crisis long&nbsp;<i>before</i>&nbsp;the first Corona headline of early 2020.</p><p><blockquote>简单、客观且经过数学验证的事实是，全球经济<i>已经</i>长期陷入债务危机<i>以前</i>2020年初的第一个电晕头条。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/173b90a9931417cc655b6129fc7dc38c\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Today, US debt to GDP is at levels it has not seen since that tragic and Second World War, and it’s projected to go much, much higher.</p><p><blockquote>如今，美国债务占国内生产总值的比重已达到自那场悲惨的第二次世界大战以来从未见过的水平，而且预计还会更高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e71ae4475b3449c8833ca918ddbd82\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> So, just in case you still think the Fed can and will meaningfully raise rates to fight obvious inflation, as it did in the 1970’s or 1980’s, think again.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你仍然认为美联储能够而且将会像上世纪 70 年代或 80 年代那样，有意义地加息以对抗明显的通货膨胀，请再想想。</blockquote></p><p> In the 1970’s and 1980’s US debt/GDP was 30%. Today it’s 130%.</p><p><blockquote>在 20 世纪 70 年代和 80 年代，美国债务与国内生产总值的比率为 30%。今天是 130%。</blockquote></p><p> Given this self-inflicted (rather than COVID-blamed) reality, the Fed simply can’t afford to raise rates. Period. Full stop.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种自我造成的（而不是科维德的）现实，美联储根本无力加息。周期。句号。</blockquote></p><p> But as my colleague, Egon von Greyerz reminds, that by no means suggests that rates can’t and won’t rise.</p><p><blockquote>但正如我的同事埃贡-冯-格雷尔茨（Egon von Greyerz）提醒的那样，这绝不意味着利率不能也不会上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed (and other central banks) may be powerful, but they are not divine. In short, there’s a limit to their powers to simply “control” rates with a mouse-click.</p><p><blockquote>美联储（和其他央行）可能很强大，但它们不是神。简而言之，他们仅仅通过点击鼠标来 “控制 ”利率的能力是有限的。</blockquote></p><p> At some point, there’s not enough credible fake money to manage the yield curve—especially on the long end.</p><p><blockquote>在某些时候，没有足够可信的假币来管理收益率曲线--尤其是在长期收益率曲线上。</blockquote></p><p> As more printed and&nbsp;<b>tanking currencies</b>&nbsp;try to purchase lower yields and rates, eventually the entire experiment fails.</p><p><blockquote>随着更多的印刷和<b>加注货币</b>试图购买更低的收益率和利率，最终整个实验失败。</blockquote></p><p> At that critical point, rates spike, inflation raises its ugly head and the central bankers look for something other than themselves to blame as the rest of the world stares at worthless currencies being replaced by comical central bank digital dollars.</p><p><blockquote>在那个关键时刻，利率飙升，通货膨胀抬起了丑陋的头，当世界其他地方都在盯着毫无价值的货币被滑稽的央行数字美元所取代时，央行行长们正在寻找自己以外的东西来指责。</blockquote></p><p> Wonderful…</p><p><blockquote>太棒了…</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 6: That Barbaric Relic?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景6：那个野蛮的遗迹？</b></blockquote></p><p> What the foregoing inflation and rate contexts means is that in the years ahead, inflation will run higher and rates will run (be forced/controlled) lower until both rates and inflation spike together.</p><p><blockquote>上述通货膨胀和利率背景意味着，在未来几年，通货膨胀将走高，利率将走低（被迫/控制），直到利率和通货膨胀一起飙升。</blockquote></p><p> This further means that&nbsp;<i>real</i>&nbsp;rates (i.e., those adjusted for inflation) could run as deep as -5% to -10% in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>这进一步意味着<i>真的</i>未来几年，利率（即根据通货膨胀调整的利率）可能会低至-5%至-10%。</blockquote></p><p> Such negative real rate levels could easily surpass those seen in the 70’s and 80’s, which means gold (and silver), both of whom love negative real rates, has nowhere to go but up, up and away in this totally debt-distorted backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>这样的负实际利率水平很容易超过 70 年代和 80 年代的水平，这意味着黄金（和白银）都喜欢负实际利率，但在这种完全债务扭曲的背景下，黄金（和白银）别无选择，只能上涨、上涨、下跌。</blockquote></p><p> How’s that for context?</p><p><blockquote>这对上下文有什么影响？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-mad-market-six-cold-reality-checks?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-mad-market-six-cold-reality-checks?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145563175","content_text":"Fact checking politicos, headlines and central bankers is one thing.Putting their \"facts\" into context is another.\nToward that end, it’s critical to place so-called “economic growth,” Treasury market growth, stock market growth, GDP growth and, of course, gold price growth into clearer perspective despite an insane global backdrop that is anything but clearly reported.\nContext 1: The Rising Growth Headline\nRecently, Biden’s economic advisor, Jared Bernstein, calmed the masses with yet another headline-making boast that the U.S. is “growing considerably faster” than their trading partners.\nFair enough.\nBut given that the U.S. is running the largest deficits on historical record…\n\n…such “growth” is not surprising.\nIn other words, bragging about growth on the back of extreme deficit spending is like a spoiled kid bragging about a new Porsche secretly purchased with his father’s credit card: It only looks good until the bill arrives and the car vanishes.\nIn a financial world gone mad, it’s critical to look under the hood of what passes for growth in particular or basic principles of price discovery, debt levels or supply and demand in general.\nIn short: “Growth” driven by extreme debt is not growth at all–it’s just the headline surface shine on a sports car one can’t afford.\nAnd yet the madness continues…Take the U.S. Treasury market, for example.\nContext 2: The Treasury “Market”?\nHow can anyone call the U.S. Treasury market a “market” when 56% of the $4.5T of bonds issued since last February have been bought by the Fed itself?\nSounds more like an insider price-fix than a “market,” no?\nSuch context gives an entirely new meaning to the idea of “drinking your own Kool-aide” and ought to be a cool reminder that Treasury bonds in general, and bond yields in particular, are zombies masquerading as credit Olympians.\nThe Fed, of course, will pretend that such “support” is as temporary as their “transitory inflation” meme, but most market realists understood long ago that more and crazier bond yield “support” is the only way for national debt bubbles (and IOU’s) to stay zombie-like alive.\nIn short, the better phrase for Treasury “support,” “accommodation,” or “stimulus” is simply: “Life Support.”\nWith central banks like the Fed continuing to create fiat currencies to monetize their unsustainable debt well into the distant future, we can safely foresee a further weakening of the USD and further strengthening of gold prices, mining stocks and key risk assets like tech and industrial stocks.\nContext 3: Deflation is back?\nHardly.\nLast week’s jaw-boning from Powell, Fisher and Bullard had the markets wondering if the Fed will be raising rates in the distant future.\nThe very fact that Powell raised the issue is because the Fed is realizing that inflation is going to be sticky rather than “transitory”and thus they are already pretending to pose as Hawkish.\nBut if the Fed raises rates to quell real rather than “transitory” inflation, the markets and Uncle Sam will go into a tantrum. End of story.\nAs I’ve written elsewhere: Pick your Fed poison—tanking markets or surging inflation.Eventually, we foresee both.\nMeanwhile, and fully aware that inflation, with some dips, is only going to trend higher, Powell is already using semantics to change the rules mid-game, now saying that rather than “allow” 2% inflation, they’ll settle for an “average” of 2%.\nTranslated into honest English, this just means expect more inflation around the corner.\nContext 4: Rising Stock Markets\nDespite reaching nosebleed levels which defy every traditional valuation ceiling, from CAPE ratios and Tobin ratios to book values and FCF data, the headlines remind us that stocks can go even higher—and they can indeed.\nBut context, as well as history, reminds us that the bigger the bubble the bigger the mean-reverting fall.\n\nNo Treasure in Treasuries = Lot’s of Air in Stocks\nBased upon the objective facts above, we now know that the only primary buyers showing up at U.S. Treasury auctions is the Fed itself.\nThis is because the rest of the world (Asia, Europe etc.) doesn’t want them.\nThe next question is “why”?\nThe answer is multiple yet simple.\nFirst, and despite the open myth of American Exceptionalism, investors in other countries can actually think, read and count for themselves, which means they’re not simply trusting the Fed—or its IOU’s– blindly.\nStated otherwise, they are not buying the “transitory inflation” or “strong USD” story pouring recently out of the FOMC mouthpieces.\nInflation is not only rising in the U.S., it’s also creeping up elsewhere—even in Japan, but especially in China. This is largely because the U.S. exports its inflation (and debased dollars) offshore via trade and fiscal deficits.\nSuch deliberate inflation exporting by the U.S. places those countries (creditors) that lent money to Uncle Sam into a dilemma: They can either 1) let their currencies inflate alongside the dollar (hardly fun), or 2) try to quell the outflow of exported (debased) US dollars to save their own currencies from further debasement.\nOption 2, of course, is the better option, which means foreign investors need to buy something more appealing than discredited U.S. Treasuries.\nSadly, ironically, and yet factually, the only assets better than bogus US Treasuries are bloated U.S. stocks.\nIn short, nosebleed-priced US stocks are still the lesser of the two US evils, and foreigners are therefore buying/seeing stocks as a better hedge against the debased USD than sovereign bonds.\nDon’t believe me?\nSee for yourself—the rest of the world is adding lots of air to the U.S. equity bubble:\nThis is contextually troublesome for a number of reasons.\nFirst, it means the declining US of A has gone from hocking its bonds to the rest of the world to hocking it stocks to the rest of the world (i.e., China…).\nLonger term, this simply means that via direct stock ownership, foreigners will slowly own more of corporate America than, well America…\nAs for this slow gutting of the once-great America to foreign buyers, don’t blame the data. Blame your Fed and other policy makers (including labor off-shoring CEO’s) for selling-out America and pretending debt can be magically solved with magical (fake) money creation.\nOf course, the second pesky little problem with stocks rising beyond the pale of sanity, earnings and honest FCF data is a thing called volatility—i.e., market seasickness.\nNothing goes in a straight line, including the dollar or the market. There will be swings.\nRight now, the short on the USD is the highest it has been in four years.\nYet if, by some chance, the Fed ever attempts to taper or raise rates, all those foreign dollars piling into U.S. stocks (above) create a bubble that always pops, as do the foregoing dollar shorts, which get squeezed.\nThat could cause a massive sell-off in U.S. equity markets as foreigners sell their stocks to buy more dollars.\nIn short, there’s a lot of different needles pointing at the current equity bubble, and a correction within the next month or so is more than likely.\nThe sharpest of those needles, by the way, is the appallingly comical level of U.S. margin debt (i.e. leverage) not making the headlines yet now making all-time highs.\nAs a reminder, whenever margin debt peaks (above), markets tank soon thereafter, as anyone who remembers the dot.com and sub-prime market fiascos of yore can attest.\nJust saying…\nContext 5: The Dark Side of “Surging” GDP Growth\nThe World Bank recently made its own headlines projecting 5.6% global GDP growth, the fastest seen in 80 years.\nGood stuff, right?\nWell, not when placed into context…\nThe last time we saw 5.6% global GDP growth was during a global world war.\nObviously, when the world is in a state of global military rubble, growth of any kind is likely to “surge” from such an historical (and horrific) baseline.\nComing out of World War II, everyone, including the U.S. was in debt. World wars, after all, can do that…\nAs the victorious and civilization-saving U.S. came out of that war, it made some justifiable sense to de-lever that noble yet extreme debt by printing money, repressing bond yields and stimulating GDP growth.\nWhat followed was at least a defendable 40-year stretch in which US nominal GDP ran 500-800 bps above US Treasury yields.\nIn short, bond-holders got slammed, but the cause, crisis and re-building after defeating the Axis powers justified the sacrifice.\nThe same, however, can not be said today as bond-holders get crushed yet again in a new-abnormal in which GDP will greatly (and similarly) outpace long-term bond yields.\nNeedless to say, current policy makers, the very foxes who put the global economic henhouse into the current pile of debt of rubble, like to blame this on COVID rather their bathroom mirrors.\nIronically, however, central bankers (as opposed to the Wehrmacht, the Japanese Empire or Italy’s Mussolini) managed to do as much harm to the global economy today (with deficit policies and extend-and-pretend money printers) as Germany’s Blitzkrieg or Hirohito’s Banzai raids did in the 1940’s.\nWhen it comes to context, can or should we really be comparing a global flu (death toll 3.75M) to a global war (death toll 85 million)?\nThe policy makers would like you to think so.\nFolks like Mnuchin (last year) or Yellen, Powell and the IMF (this year), are in fact trying to convince themselves and the world that the war against COVID was the real casus belli (reason for a justifiable war) of our current debt distress—equal in scope to World War II in its drastic impact on the financial world.\nBut regardless of anyone’s views on the COVID “War” or its questionable policy reactions, comparing its economic impact to that of World War II is an insult to both history and military metaphors.\nThe simple, objective and mathematically-confirmed fact is that the global economy was already in a debt crisis long before the first Corona headline of early 2020.\nToday, US debt to GDP is at levels it has not seen since that tragic and Second World War, and it’s projected to go much, much higher.\n\nSo, just in case you still think the Fed can and will meaningfully raise rates to fight obvious inflation, as it did in the 1970’s or 1980’s, think again.\nIn the 1970’s and 1980’s US debt/GDP was 30%. Today it’s 130%.\nGiven this self-inflicted (rather than COVID-blamed) reality, the Fed simply can’t afford to raise rates. Period. Full stop.\nBut as my colleague, Egon von Greyerz reminds, that by no means suggests that rates can’t and won’t rise.\nThe Fed (and other central banks) may be powerful, but they are not divine. In short, there’s a limit to their powers to simply “control” rates with a mouse-click.\nAt some point, there’s not enough credible fake money to manage the yield curve—especially on the long end.\nAs more printed and tanking currencies try to purchase lower yields and rates, eventually the entire experiment fails.\nAt that critical point, rates spike, inflation raises its ugly head and the central bankers look for something other than themselves to blame as the rest of the world stares at worthless currencies being replaced by comical central bank digital dollars.\nWonderful…\nContext 6: That Barbaric Relic?\nWhat the foregoing inflation and rate contexts means is that in the years ahead, inflation will run higher and rates will run (be forced/controlled) lower until both rates and inflation spike together.\nThis further means that real rates (i.e., those adjusted for inflation) could run as deep as -5% to -10% in the years ahead.\nSuch negative real rate levels could easily surpass those seen in the 70’s and 80’s, which means gold (and silver), both of whom love negative real rates, has nowhere to go but up, up and away in this totally debt-distorted backdrop.\nHow’s that for context?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":168200103,"gmtCreate":1623975259202,"gmtModify":1631894043662,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"What next?","listText":"What next?","text":"What next?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168200103","repostId":"1107055650","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107055650","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623975076,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107055650?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:11","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Gold Got Crushed After the Fed’s Big Surprise. Here’s What Could Happen Next.<blockquote>美联储大吃一惊后，黄金遭受重创。以下是接下来可能发生的事情。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107055650","media":"Barrons","summary":"Duck for cover, gold bulls.\nThat was the message the market seemed to send on Thursday, as the preci","content":"<p>Duck for cover, gold bulls.</p><p><blockquote>躲起来，金牛。</blockquote></p><p> That was the message the market seemed to send on Thursday, as the precious metal tumbled $85.70, or 4.6%, to $1,773.80 an ounce, following a curveball from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>这就是周四市场似乎发出的信息，在美联储发布曲线球后，贵金属下跌 85.70 美元，跌幅 4.6%，至每盎司 1,773.80 美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a continuous contract basis, gold is trading at levels not seen since the end of April. It was the biggest drop since November 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在连续合约的基础上，黄金的交易价格处于4月底以来的最高水平。这是自2020年11月以来的最大跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> Gold miners also got hit hard. The&nbsp;VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF(GDX) fell 5% to $34.93, while the&nbsp;VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ) dropped 4.7% to $49.02. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;finished the day little changed, while the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;fell 0.6%, and theNasdaq Compositerose 0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>金矿开采商也受到了沉重打击。VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) 下跌 5%，至 34.93 美元；VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) 下跌 4.7%，至 49.02 美元。标普500收盘变化不大，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 0.6%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨 0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> While the central bank held policy steady, it also&nbsp;signaled faster and sooner interest rate increases, with its forecast suggesting two increases in 2023. And the Fed increased its inflation forecasts for this year and next.</p><p><blockquote>央行在保持政策稳定的同时，也发出了更快更快加息的信号，其预测显示2023年将加息两次。美联储上调了今明两年的通胀预测。</blockquote></p><p> Recent data showing surging prices had led many to believe the Fed would at least begin early discussions about reining in some of its ultra-accommodative policy aimed at cushioning the economy from the Covid-19 pandemic. But the outcome was far more hawkish than some expected.</p><p><blockquote>最近的数据显示价格飙升，这让许多人相信美联储至少会开始尽早讨论限制其旨在缓冲经济免受 Covid-19 大流行影响的一些超宽松政策。但结果比一些人预期的要鹰派得多。</blockquote></p><p> Gold for August delivery settled slightly higher at $1,861.40 on Wednesday, but began to fall in electronic trading after the Fed announcement and kept going. That is as Treasury yields&nbsp;climbed across the board—the yield on the two-year note was hovering the highest level in a year—and the dollar surged.</p><p><blockquote>8月交割的黄金周三小幅收高，报1,861.40美元，但在美联储宣布后，电子交易中开始下跌，并继续下跌。与此同时，美国国债收益率全面攀升——两年期国债收益率徘徊在一年来的最高水平——美元也飙升。</blockquote></p><p> “Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing&nbsp;gold, and prospects of a further rise in yields should cap the upside potential in the yellow metal despite the rising inflationary pressures. A sustained positive pressure on yields could send the price of an ounce sustainably below the $1800 level,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, in a note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>“收益率上升会增加持有无息黄金的机会成本，尽管通胀压力不断上升，但收益率进一步上升的前景应该会限制黄金的上涨潜力。瑞士报价（Swissquote）高级分析师伊佩克-奥兹卡德斯卡娅（Ipek Ozkardeskaya）在给客户的一份报告中说：”收益率持续上行的压力可能会使每盎司黄金价格持续低于 1800 美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, gold bulls need to defend that line in the sand, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda 高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚 (Edward Moya) 表示，事实上，黄金多头需要在沙滩上捍卫这条线。</blockquote></p><p> “The Fed’s hawkish pivot is a major buzzkill for gold bulls that could see some momentum selling over the short-term.&nbsp;Short-term Treasury yields will continue to rise and that should provide some underlying support for the dollar, which will keep commodities vulnerable,” Moya told clients in a note.</p><p><blockquote>“美联储的鹰派转向对黄金多头来说是一个重大打击，他们可能会在短期内看到一些抛售势头。莫亚在一份报告中告诉客户：”短期国债收益率将继续上升，这应该会为美元提供一些潜在支撑，这将使大宗商品保持脆弱性。</blockquote></p><p> Silver prices tanked along with gold, with June futures trading down nearly $1.956, or 7%, to $27.75 an ounce. A host of industrial metals prices were also lower on the day, a day after China&nbsp;announced plans&nbsp;to release national reserves of industrial metals to cool soaring commodities prices.</p><p><blockquote>白银价格与黄金价格一起下跌，6 月份期货价格下跌近 1.956 美元，跌幅 7%，至每盎司 27.75 美元。在中国宣布计划释放国家工业金属储备以冷却飙升的大宗商品价格的第二天，许多工业金属价格当天也走低。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold Got Crushed After the Fed’s Big Surprise. Here’s What Could Happen Next.<blockquote>美联储大吃一惊后，黄金遭受重创。以下是接下来可能发生的事情。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGold Got Crushed After the Fed’s Big Surprise. Here’s What Could Happen Next.<blockquote>美联储大吃一惊后，黄金遭受重创。以下是接下来可能发生的事情。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 08:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Duck for cover, gold bulls.</p><p><blockquote>躲起来，金牛。</blockquote></p><p> That was the message the market seemed to send on Thursday, as the precious metal tumbled $85.70, or 4.6%, to $1,773.80 an ounce, following a curveball from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>这就是周四市场似乎发出的信息，在美联储发布曲线球后，贵金属下跌 85.70 美元，跌幅 4.6%，至每盎司 1,773.80 美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a continuous contract basis, gold is trading at levels not seen since the end of April. It was the biggest drop since November 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在连续合约的基础上，黄金的交易价格处于4月底以来的最高水平。这是自2020年11月以来的最大跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> Gold miners also got hit hard. The&nbsp;VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF(GDX) fell 5% to $34.93, while the&nbsp;VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ) dropped 4.7% to $49.02. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;finished the day little changed, while the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;fell 0.6%, and theNasdaq Compositerose 0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>金矿开采商也受到了沉重打击。VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) 下跌 5%，至 34.93 美元；VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) 下跌 4.7%，至 49.02 美元。标普500收盘变化不大，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 0.6%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨 0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> While the central bank held policy steady, it also&nbsp;signaled faster and sooner interest rate increases, with its forecast suggesting two increases in 2023. And the Fed increased its inflation forecasts for this year and next.</p><p><blockquote>央行在保持政策稳定的同时，也发出了更快更快加息的信号，其预测显示2023年将加息两次。美联储上调了今明两年的通胀预测。</blockquote></p><p> Recent data showing surging prices had led many to believe the Fed would at least begin early discussions about reining in some of its ultra-accommodative policy aimed at cushioning the economy from the Covid-19 pandemic. But the outcome was far more hawkish than some expected.</p><p><blockquote>最近的数据显示价格飙升，这让许多人相信美联储至少会开始尽早讨论限制其旨在缓冲经济免受 Covid-19 大流行影响的一些超宽松政策。但结果比一些人预期的要鹰派得多。</blockquote></p><p> Gold for August delivery settled slightly higher at $1,861.40 on Wednesday, but began to fall in electronic trading after the Fed announcement and kept going. That is as Treasury yields&nbsp;climbed across the board—the yield on the two-year note was hovering the highest level in a year—and the dollar surged.</p><p><blockquote>8月交割的黄金周三小幅收高，报1,861.40美元，但在美联储宣布后，电子交易中开始下跌，并继续下跌。与此同时，美国国债收益率全面攀升——两年期国债收益率徘徊在一年来的最高水平——美元也飙升。</blockquote></p><p> “Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing&nbsp;gold, and prospects of a further rise in yields should cap the upside potential in the yellow metal despite the rising inflationary pressures. A sustained positive pressure on yields could send the price of an ounce sustainably below the $1800 level,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, in a note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>“收益率上升会增加持有无息黄金的机会成本，尽管通胀压力不断上升，但收益率进一步上升的前景应该会限制黄金的上涨潜力。瑞士报价（Swissquote）高级分析师伊佩克-奥兹卡德斯卡娅（Ipek Ozkardeskaya）在给客户的一份报告中说：”收益率持续上行的压力可能会使每盎司黄金价格持续低于 1800 美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, gold bulls need to defend that line in the sand, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda 高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚 (Edward Moya) 表示，事实上，黄金多头需要在沙滩上捍卫这条线。</blockquote></p><p> “The Fed’s hawkish pivot is a major buzzkill for gold bulls that could see some momentum selling over the short-term.&nbsp;Short-term Treasury yields will continue to rise and that should provide some underlying support for the dollar, which will keep commodities vulnerable,” Moya told clients in a note.</p><p><blockquote>“美联储的鹰派转向对黄金多头来说是一个重大打击，他们可能会在短期内看到一些抛售势头。莫亚在一份报告中告诉客户：”短期国债收益率将继续上升，这应该会为美元提供一些潜在支撑，这将使大宗商品保持脆弱性。</blockquote></p><p> Silver prices tanked along with gold, with June futures trading down nearly $1.956, or 7%, to $27.75 an ounce. A host of industrial metals prices were also lower on the day, a day after China&nbsp;announced plans&nbsp;to release national reserves of industrial metals to cool soaring commodities prices.</p><p><blockquote>白银价格与黄金价格一起下跌，6 月份期货价格下跌近 1.956 美元，跌幅 7%，至每盎司 27.75 美元。在中国宣布计划释放国家工业金属储备以冷却飙升的大宗商品价格的第二天，许多工业金属价格当天也走低。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-prices-fed-51623923127?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-prices-fed-51623923127?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107055650","content_text":"Duck for cover, gold bulls.\nThat was the message the market seemed to send on Thursday, as the precious metal tumbled $85.70, or 4.6%, to $1,773.80 an ounce, following a curveball from the Federal Reserve.\nOn a continuous contract basis, gold is trading at levels not seen since the end of April. It was the biggest drop since November 2020.\nGold miners also got hit hard. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF(GDX) fell 5% to $34.93, while the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ) dropped 4.7% to $49.02. The S&P 500 finished the day little changed, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, and theNasdaq Compositerose 0.9%.\nWhile the central bank held policy steady, it also signaled faster and sooner interest rate increases, with its forecast suggesting two increases in 2023. And the Fed increased its inflation forecasts for this year and next.\nRecent data showing surging prices had led many to believe the Fed would at least begin early discussions about reining in some of its ultra-accommodative policy aimed at cushioning the economy from the Covid-19 pandemic. But the outcome was far more hawkish than some expected.\nGold for August delivery settled slightly higher at $1,861.40 on Wednesday, but began to fall in electronic trading after the Fed announcement and kept going. That is as Treasury yields climbed across the board—the yield on the two-year note was hovering the highest level in a year—and the dollar surged.\n“Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold, and prospects of a further rise in yields should cap the upside potential in the yellow metal despite the rising inflationary pressures. A sustained positive pressure on yields could send the price of an ounce sustainably below the $1800 level,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, in a note to clients.\nIndeed, gold bulls need to defend that line in the sand, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.\n“The Fed’s hawkish pivot is a major buzzkill for gold bulls that could see some momentum selling over the short-term. Short-term Treasury yields will continue to rise and that should provide some underlying support for the dollar, which will keep commodities vulnerable,” Moya told clients in a note.\nSilver prices tanked along with gold, with June futures trading down nearly $1.956, or 7%, to $27.75 an ounce. A host of industrial metals prices were also lower on the day, a day after China announced plans to release national reserves of industrial metals to cool soaring commodities prices.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GCmain":0.9,"GOLDmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160287034,"gmtCreate":1623799770928,"gmtModify":1631894043676,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Samsung phone","listText":"Samsung phone","text":"Samsung phone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160287034","repostId":"2143806765","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184758667,"gmtCreate":1623726625759,"gmtModify":1631889164117,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Costco","listText":"Costco","text":"Costco","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184758667","repostId":"1167323938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167323938","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623723810,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1167323938?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 10:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"My 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的 3 只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167323938","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These companies make good long-term core holdings.\nStock investing starts with picking the right com","content":"<p>These companies make good long-term core holdings.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司是良好的长期核心持股。</blockquote></p><p> Stock investing&nbsp;starts with picking the right companies. Remember, finding the nextmeme stockbefore the price takes off and selling at the high point is virtually impossible without a time machine.</p><p><blockquote>股票投资始于选择合适的公司。请记住，如果没有时间机器，在价格上涨之前找到 nextmeme 股票并在高点卖出几乎是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, I like buying shares in high-quality companies with strong market positions that have competitive advantages that aren't easily duplicated. Granted, this is easier said than done, but these companies fit the description.</p><p><blockquote>相反，我喜欢购买具有强大市场地位的优质公司的股票，这些公司具有不容易复制的竞争优势。诚然，这说起来容易做起来难，但这些公司符合这一描述。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/effed739609f2c132bbfba134fe0ff19\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Amazon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;has become synonymous with e-commerce, but the company is much more than that. It has done this by sticking to its principles, which include focusing on the customer, innovating, and planning for the long term. You can see this through its popular Amazon Prime subscription service, which includes delivery charges, and hardware devices like Alexa and Kindle. There is also its fast-growing, higher-margin Amazon Web Services (AWS) business that provides cloud computing services.</p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）已成为电子商务的代名词，但该公司远不止于此。它通过坚持其原则来做到这一点，这些原则包括以客户为中心、创新和长期规划。你可以通过其广受欢迎的亚马逊Prime订阅服务（包括送货费）以及Alexa和Kindle等硬件设备看到这一点。还有其快速增长、利润率较高的亚马逊网络服务 (AWS) 业务，提供云计算服务。</blockquote></p><p> Its presence is so dominant that Amazon completely changes an industry's dynamics when it decides to enter the fray. That's because it often provides cheap prices and fast delivery -- a compelling proposition. This happened when it pushed further into selling food and apparel, for instance. The company is also moving further into&nbsp;offering prescription drugs.</p><p><blockquote>它的存在是如此的主导地位，以至于当亚马逊决定加入竞争时，它完全改变了一个行业的动态。这是因为它通常提供便宜的价格和快速的交货——这是一个引人注目的主张。例如，当它进一步销售食品和服装时，就发生了这种情况。该公司还进一步提供处方药。</blockquote></p><p> While its long-term focus means Amazon is willing to forgo short-term profits, the company is hugely profitable. Its operating profit grew from 2016's $4.2 billion to $22.9 billion last year. In the first quarter, the company's profit more than doubled from $4 billion to $8.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>虽然其长期关注意味着亚马逊愿意放弃短期利润，但该公司利润丰厚。其营业利润从2016年的42亿美元增长到去年的229亿美元。第一季度，该公司利润增长了一倍多，从 40 亿美元增至 88 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Costco</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 好市多</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Costco Wholesale</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:COST)&nbsp;has created quite a shopping experience. Known for its wide aisles, bulk items, and free samples, it has built a loyal and growing membership.</p><p><blockquote><b>好市多批发</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：COST）创造了相当不错的购物体验。它以其宽阔的过道、大量的商品和免费样品而闻名，已经建立了一批忠实且不断增长的会员。</blockquote></p><p> Costco's simple formula is hard to replicate: It focuses on high-quality merchandise and services, and sells them at low unit prices. Costco's paid members have grown from 47.6 million in 2016 to 58.1 million last year (the fiscal year ends on June 30). Meanwhile, its retention rate has hovered around 90%.</p><p><blockquote>Costco的简单公式很难复制：它专注于高质量的商品和服务，并以低单价出售。好市多的付费会员从2016年的4760万增长到去年的5810万（财年于6月30日结束）。与此同时，其保留率一直徘徊在90%左右。</blockquote></p><p> With a focus on customer needs, it even has a generous return policy to help members have confidence in their purchases.</p><p><blockquote>专注于客户需求，它甚至有慷慨的退货政策，以帮助会员对他们的购买有信心。</blockquote></p><p> Management also keeps an eye on improving results. It has had positive same-store sales (comps) for many years, including a 9% increase last year after excluding the effects of gasoline price changes and foreign currency exchange translation. Operating income grew from $3.7 billion to $5.4 billion over the last five years.</p><p><blockquote>管理层亦密切关注改善业绩。多年来，该公司的同店销售额（comps）一直为正，在排除汽油价格变化和外币兑换的影响后，去年增长了9%。在过去的五年里，经营利润从37亿美元增长到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Recent results also provide encouragement that management continues to execute. Comps increased by 15.2% for the first three quarters of 2021, and operating income grew by more than 26% to $4.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>最近的结果也鼓励管理层继续执行。2021 年前三个季度，Comps 增长了 15.2%，经营利润增长了 26% 以上，达到 44 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While income investors can find higher yields than Costco's 0.8%, it does have a history of annually raising dividends. This includes increasing May's payment to $0.79 from the previous quarter's $0.70. But better still, the board of directors has declared large special dividends every few years. The most recent was a $10 payment last December.</p><p><blockquote>虽然收益投资者可以找到高于好市多 0.8% 的收益率，但它确实有每年提高股息的历史。这包括将 5 月份的付款从上一季度的 0.70 美元增加到 0.79 美元。但更好的是，董事会每隔几年就会宣布大量特别股息。最近一次是去年12月支付的10美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Walmart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 沃尔玛</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Walmart</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:WMT)&nbsp;has built itself into the world's largest retailer, serving more than 240 million customers every week. The company, which opened its first discount store nearly six decades ago, squeezes costs and passes these savings on to the customer. This allows Walmart to offer the lowest prices on its goods, making it difficult for competitors to keep up.</p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）已成为全球最大的零售商，每周为超过 2.4 亿客户提供服务。该公司在近六十年前开设了第一家折扣店，它压缩了成本，并将这些节省下来的成本转嫁给了顾客。这使得沃尔玛能够提供最低的商品价格，使竞争对手难以跟上。</blockquote></p><p> It isn't sitting still, either. It is keeping pace with online competitors, namely Amazon, by investing in technology to provide a seamless omnichannel experience to its shoppers. This includes launching the subscription service Walmart+, which provides delivery, gasoline discounts, and faster checkout at its stores.</p><p><blockquote>它也没有静止不动。它正在与在线竞争对手亚马逊保持同步，投资技术为购物者提供无缝的全渠道体验。这包括推出订阅服务 Walmart+，该服务提供送货、汽油折扣和更快的商店结账速度。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, its adjusted revenue rose by 7.7% to $564.2 billion, driving operating income 9.3% higher to $23.4 billion. In the first quarter, revenue growth was about 2%, and management expects a low-single-digit percentage increase for the year. Its guidance calls for flattish operating income.</p><p><blockquote>去年，其调整后收入增长7.7%，达到5642亿美元，推动经营利润上涨9.3%，达到234亿美元。第一季度收入增长约2%，管理层预计全年将实现低个位数百分比增长。它对扁平经营利润的指导评级。</blockquote></p><p> While this outlook undoubtedly disappointed some investors, I'm not concerned. Management has its eyes on the long-term picture, and it is investing in technology to better serve its customers and remain a dominant retailer.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种前景无疑让一些投资者失望，但我并不担心。管理层着眼于长远，正在投资技术，以更好地服务客户并保持主导零售商的地位。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart also offers a 1.6% yield, and it has also raised its quarterly dividend annually since initiating a payout in 1974. Already aDividend Aristocrat, it will become a Dividend King when the streak hits 50 years.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛还提供 1.6% 的收益率，并且自 1974 年开始派息以来，每年都会提高季度股息。已经是股息贵族，当连胜纪录达到50年时，它将成为股息之王。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While these are three different companies in various stages, each is a strong addition to your portfolio. Adding them will give you a high-growth stock, a steady grower that tends to pay large dividends every few years, and a dominant retailer that continues to grow and regularly increase payments to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这是处于不同阶段的三家不同公司，但每一家都是你投资组合的有力补充。添加它们将为您提供一只高增长的股票、一只往往每隔几年支付大量股息的稳定增长的股票，以及一家持续增长并定期增加对股东的支付的主导零售商。</blockquote></p><p> That's a winning combination that should make these core holdings a great addition to your portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个成功的组合，应该会使这些核心持股成为您投资组合的重要补充。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>My 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的 3 只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMy 3 Favorite Stocks Right Now<blockquote>我现在最喜欢的 3 只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 10:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>These companies make good long-term core holdings.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司是良好的长期核心持股。</blockquote></p><p> Stock investing&nbsp;starts with picking the right companies. Remember, finding the nextmeme stockbefore the price takes off and selling at the high point is virtually impossible without a time machine.</p><p><blockquote>股票投资始于选择合适的公司。请记住，如果没有时间机器，在价格上涨之前找到 nextmeme 股票并在高点卖出几乎是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, I like buying shares in high-quality companies with strong market positions that have competitive advantages that aren't easily duplicated. Granted, this is easier said than done, but these companies fit the description.</p><p><blockquote>相反，我喜欢购买具有强大市场地位的优质公司的股票，这些公司具有不容易复制的竞争优势。诚然，这说起来容易做起来难，但这些公司符合这一描述。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/effed739609f2c132bbfba134fe0ff19\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Amazon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;has become synonymous with e-commerce, but the company is much more than that. It has done this by sticking to its principles, which include focusing on the customer, innovating, and planning for the long term. You can see this through its popular Amazon Prime subscription service, which includes delivery charges, and hardware devices like Alexa and Kindle. There is also its fast-growing, higher-margin Amazon Web Services (AWS) business that provides cloud computing services.</p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）已成为电子商务的代名词，但该公司远不止于此。它通过坚持其原则来做到这一点，这些原则包括以客户为中心、创新和长期规划。你可以通过其广受欢迎的亚马逊Prime订阅服务（包括送货费）以及Alexa和Kindle等硬件设备看到这一点。还有其快速增长、利润率较高的亚马逊网络服务 (AWS) 业务，提供云计算服务。</blockquote></p><p> Its presence is so dominant that Amazon completely changes an industry's dynamics when it decides to enter the fray. That's because it often provides cheap prices and fast delivery -- a compelling proposition. This happened when it pushed further into selling food and apparel, for instance. The company is also moving further into&nbsp;offering prescription drugs.</p><p><blockquote>它的存在是如此的主导地位，以至于当亚马逊决定加入竞争时，它完全改变了一个行业的动态。这是因为它通常提供便宜的价格和快速的交货——这是一个引人注目的主张。例如，当它进一步销售食品和服装时，就发生了这种情况。该公司还进一步提供处方药。</blockquote></p><p> While its long-term focus means Amazon is willing to forgo short-term profits, the company is hugely profitable. Its operating profit grew from 2016's $4.2 billion to $22.9 billion last year. In the first quarter, the company's profit more than doubled from $4 billion to $8.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>虽然其长期关注意味着亚马逊愿意放弃短期利润，但该公司利润丰厚。其营业利润从2016年的42亿美元增长到去年的229亿美元。第一季度，该公司利润增长了一倍多，从 40 亿美元增至 88 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Costco</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 好市多</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Costco Wholesale</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:COST)&nbsp;has created quite a shopping experience. Known for its wide aisles, bulk items, and free samples, it has built a loyal and growing membership.</p><p><blockquote><b>好市多批发</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：COST）创造了相当不错的购物体验。它以其宽阔的过道、大量的商品和免费样品而闻名，已经建立了一批忠实且不断增长的会员。</blockquote></p><p> Costco's simple formula is hard to replicate: It focuses on high-quality merchandise and services, and sells them at low unit prices. Costco's paid members have grown from 47.6 million in 2016 to 58.1 million last year (the fiscal year ends on June 30). Meanwhile, its retention rate has hovered around 90%.</p><p><blockquote>Costco的简单公式很难复制：它专注于高质量的商品和服务，并以低单价出售。好市多的付费会员从2016年的4760万增长到去年的5810万（财年于6月30日结束）。与此同时，其保留率一直徘徊在90%左右。</blockquote></p><p> With a focus on customer needs, it even has a generous return policy to help members have confidence in their purchases.</p><p><blockquote>专注于客户需求，它甚至有慷慨的退货政策，以帮助会员对他们的购买有信心。</blockquote></p><p> Management also keeps an eye on improving results. It has had positive same-store sales (comps) for many years, including a 9% increase last year after excluding the effects of gasoline price changes and foreign currency exchange translation. Operating income grew from $3.7 billion to $5.4 billion over the last five years.</p><p><blockquote>管理层亦密切关注改善业绩。多年来，该公司的同店销售额（comps）一直为正，在排除汽油价格变化和外币兑换的影响后，去年增长了9%。在过去的五年里，经营利润从37亿美元增长到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Recent results also provide encouragement that management continues to execute. Comps increased by 15.2% for the first three quarters of 2021, and operating income grew by more than 26% to $4.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>最近的结果也鼓励管理层继续执行。2021 年前三个季度，Comps 增长了 15.2%，经营利润增长了 26% 以上，达到 44 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While income investors can find higher yields than Costco's 0.8%, it does have a history of annually raising dividends. This includes increasing May's payment to $0.79 from the previous quarter's $0.70. But better still, the board of directors has declared large special dividends every few years. The most recent was a $10 payment last December.</p><p><blockquote>虽然收益投资者可以找到高于好市多 0.8% 的收益率，但它确实有每年提高股息的历史。这包括将 5 月份的付款从上一季度的 0.70 美元增加到 0.79 美元。但更好的是，董事会每隔几年就会宣布大量特别股息。最近一次是去年12月支付的10美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Walmart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 沃尔玛</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Walmart</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:WMT)&nbsp;has built itself into the world's largest retailer, serving more than 240 million customers every week. The company, which opened its first discount store nearly six decades ago, squeezes costs and passes these savings on to the customer. This allows Walmart to offer the lowest prices on its goods, making it difficult for competitors to keep up.</p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）已成为全球最大的零售商，每周为超过 2.4 亿客户提供服务。该公司在近六十年前开设了第一家折扣店，它压缩了成本，并将这些节省下来的成本转嫁给了顾客。这使得沃尔玛能够提供最低的商品价格，使竞争对手难以跟上。</blockquote></p><p> It isn't sitting still, either. It is keeping pace with online competitors, namely Amazon, by investing in technology to provide a seamless omnichannel experience to its shoppers. This includes launching the subscription service Walmart+, which provides delivery, gasoline discounts, and faster checkout at its stores.</p><p><blockquote>它也没有静止不动。它正在与在线竞争对手亚马逊保持同步，投资技术为购物者提供无缝的全渠道体验。这包括推出订阅服务 Walmart+，该服务提供送货、汽油折扣和更快的商店结账速度。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, its adjusted revenue rose by 7.7% to $564.2 billion, driving operating income 9.3% higher to $23.4 billion. In the first quarter, revenue growth was about 2%, and management expects a low-single-digit percentage increase for the year. Its guidance calls for flattish operating income.</p><p><blockquote>去年，其调整后收入增长7.7%，达到5642亿美元，推动经营利润上涨9.3%，达到234亿美元。第一季度收入增长约2%，管理层预计全年将实现低个位数百分比增长。它对扁平经营利润的指导评级。</blockquote></p><p> While this outlook undoubtedly disappointed some investors, I'm not concerned. Management has its eyes on the long-term picture, and it is investing in technology to better serve its customers and remain a dominant retailer.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种前景无疑让一些投资者失望，但我并不担心。管理层着眼于长远，正在投资技术，以更好地服务客户并保持主导零售商的地位。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart also offers a 1.6% yield, and it has also raised its quarterly dividend annually since initiating a payout in 1974. Already aDividend Aristocrat, it will become a Dividend King when the streak hits 50 years.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛还提供 1.6% 的收益率，并且自 1974 年开始派息以来，每年都会提高季度股息。已经是股息贵族，当连胜纪录达到50年时，它将成为股息之王。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While these are three different companies in various stages, each is a strong addition to your portfolio. Adding them will give you a high-growth stock, a steady grower that tends to pay large dividends every few years, and a dominant retailer that continues to grow and regularly increase payments to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这是处于不同阶段的三家不同公司，但每一家都是你投资组合的有力补充。添加它们将为您提供一只高增长的股票、一只往往每隔几年支付大量股息的稳定增长的股票，以及一家持续增长并定期增加对股东的支付的主导零售商。</blockquote></p><p> That's a winning combination that should make these core holdings a great addition to your portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个成功的组合，应该会使这些核心持股成为您投资组合的重要补充。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/14/my-3-favorite-stocks-right-now/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛","AMZN":"亚马逊","COST":"好市多"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/14/my-3-favorite-stocks-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167323938","content_text":"These companies make good long-term core holdings.\nStock investing starts with picking the right companies. Remember, finding the nextmeme stockbefore the price takes off and selling at the high point is virtually impossible without a time machine.\nInstead, I like buying shares in high-quality companies with strong market positions that have competitive advantages that aren't easily duplicated. Granted, this is easier said than done, but these companies fit the description.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Amazon\nAmazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has become synonymous with e-commerce, but the company is much more than that. It has done this by sticking to its principles, which include focusing on the customer, innovating, and planning for the long term. You can see this through its popular Amazon Prime subscription service, which includes delivery charges, and hardware devices like Alexa and Kindle. There is also its fast-growing, higher-margin Amazon Web Services (AWS) business that provides cloud computing services.\nIts presence is so dominant that Amazon completely changes an industry's dynamics when it decides to enter the fray. That's because it often provides cheap prices and fast delivery -- a compelling proposition. This happened when it pushed further into selling food and apparel, for instance. The company is also moving further into offering prescription drugs.\nWhile its long-term focus means Amazon is willing to forgo short-term profits, the company is hugely profitable. Its operating profit grew from 2016's $4.2 billion to $22.9 billion last year. In the first quarter, the company's profit more than doubled from $4 billion to $8.8 billion.\n2. Costco\nCostco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) has created quite a shopping experience. Known for its wide aisles, bulk items, and free samples, it has built a loyal and growing membership.\nCostco's simple formula is hard to replicate: It focuses on high-quality merchandise and services, and sells them at low unit prices. Costco's paid members have grown from 47.6 million in 2016 to 58.1 million last year (the fiscal year ends on June 30). Meanwhile, its retention rate has hovered around 90%.\nWith a focus on customer needs, it even has a generous return policy to help members have confidence in their purchases.\nManagement also keeps an eye on improving results. It has had positive same-store sales (comps) for many years, including a 9% increase last year after excluding the effects of gasoline price changes and foreign currency exchange translation. Operating income grew from $3.7 billion to $5.4 billion over the last five years.\nRecent results also provide encouragement that management continues to execute. Comps increased by 15.2% for the first three quarters of 2021, and operating income grew by more than 26% to $4.4 billion.\nWhile income investors can find higher yields than Costco's 0.8%, it does have a history of annually raising dividends. This includes increasing May's payment to $0.79 from the previous quarter's $0.70. But better still, the board of directors has declared large special dividends every few years. The most recent was a $10 payment last December.\n3. Walmart\nWalmart (NYSE:WMT) has built itself into the world's largest retailer, serving more than 240 million customers every week. The company, which opened its first discount store nearly six decades ago, squeezes costs and passes these savings on to the customer. This allows Walmart to offer the lowest prices on its goods, making it difficult for competitors to keep up.\nIt isn't sitting still, either. It is keeping pace with online competitors, namely Amazon, by investing in technology to provide a seamless omnichannel experience to its shoppers. This includes launching the subscription service Walmart+, which provides delivery, gasoline discounts, and faster checkout at its stores.\nLast year, its adjusted revenue rose by 7.7% to $564.2 billion, driving operating income 9.3% higher to $23.4 billion. In the first quarter, revenue growth was about 2%, and management expects a low-single-digit percentage increase for the year. Its guidance calls for flattish operating income.\nWhile this outlook undoubtedly disappointed some investors, I'm not concerned. Management has its eyes on the long-term picture, and it is investing in technology to better serve its customers and remain a dominant retailer.\nWalmart also offers a 1.6% yield, and it has also raised its quarterly dividend annually since initiating a payout in 1974. Already aDividend Aristocrat, it will become a Dividend King when the streak hits 50 years.\nWhile these are three different companies in various stages, each is a strong addition to your portfolio. Adding them will give you a high-growth stock, a steady grower that tends to pay large dividends every few years, and a dominant retailer that continues to grow and regularly increase payments to shareholders.\nThat's a winning combination that should make these core holdings a great addition to your portfolio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"WMT":0.9,"COST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182548583,"gmtCreate":1623592515042,"gmtModify":1631894043689,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"For rich people only","listText":"For rich people only","text":"For rich people only","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182548583","repostId":"1191179846","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188500530,"gmtCreate":1623453043520,"gmtModify":1631894043701,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188500530","repostId":"2142273201","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":188276445,"gmtCreate":1623452787587,"gmtModify":1631894043716,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nowadays people getting info from internet or social media","listText":"Nowadays people getting info from internet or social media","text":"Nowadays people getting info from internet or social media","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188276445","repostId":"1183458691","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181022637,"gmtCreate":1623368208629,"gmtModify":1631894043725,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yeah[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"Yeah[得意]&nbsp;","text":"Yeah[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181022637","repostId":"1152704038","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152704038","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623367425,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1152704038?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 07:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"China's Didi reveals U.S. IPO filing, sets stage for blockbuster New York float<blockquote>中国滴滴公布美国 IPO 文件，为纽约重磅上市奠定基础</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152704038","media":"reuters","summary":"(Reuters) -Didi Chuxing, China’s biggest ride-hailing firm, on Thursday made public its filing for a","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Didi Chuxing, China’s biggest ride-hailing firm, on Thursday made public its filing for a U.S. stock market listing, setting the stage for what is expected to be the world’s biggest initial public offering this year.</p><p><blockquote>(路透社）--中国最大的网约车公司滴滴出行周四公开了其在美国股市上市的申请，为今年有望成为全球最大的首次公开募股奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> The company - backed by Asia’s largest technology investment firms, SoftBank, Alibaba and Tencent - did not reveal the size of the offering, but sources familiar with the matter had previously told Reuters that the ride-hailing giant could raise around $10 billion and seek a valuation of close to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该公司得到了亚洲最大的科技投资公司软银、阿里巴巴-SW和腾讯控股的支持，没有透露发行规模，但熟悉内情的消息人士此前曾告诉路透社，这家叫车巨头可能会融资约 100 亿美元，并寻求接近 1000 亿美元的估值。</blockquote></p><p> At that valuation, Didi’s stock market flotation would be the biggest Chinese share offering in the United States, since Alibaba raised $25 billion in its blockbuster IPO in 2014.</p><p><blockquote>按照这一估值，滴滴的首次公开募股将是自阿里巴巴-SW 2014 年首次公开募股（IPO）筹集 250 亿美元以来，在美国最大的中国股票发行。</blockquote></p><p> In its filing on Thursday, Didi revealed slower revenue growth in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which grounded the global ride-hailing industry to a halt as lockdowns were enforced all over the globe.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴在周四提交的文件中透露，由于 COVID-19 大流行的影响，2020 年收入增长放缓，随着全球各地实施封锁，全球网约车行业陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> For 2020, Didi reported revenue of 141.7 billion yuan ($22.17 billion), down from 154.8 billion yuan a year earlier. Net loss stood at 10.6 billion yuan in 2020, compared with 9.7 billion yuan a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，滴滴报告收入为 1,417 亿元人民币（221.7 亿美元），低于上年同期的 1,548 亿元人民币。2020年净亏损106亿元，上年同期为97亿元。</blockquote></p><p> However, Didi started 2021 strongly, as businesses reopened in China. Revenue more than doubled to 42.2 billion yuan (US$6.4 billion) for the three months ended March 31 from 20.5 billion yuan a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着中国业务重新开业，滴滴在2021年开局强劲。截至 3 月 31 日的三个月，收入从去年同期的 205 亿元人民币增长了一倍多，达到 422 亿元人民币（64 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> CHINESE IPO GOLD RUSH</p><p><blockquote>中国IPO淘金热</blockquote></p><p> Didi confidentially filed for its IPO in April. A source familiar with the matter on Thursday said Didi was aiming to go public in July.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴于4月份秘密申请IPO。一位知情人士周四表示，滴滴的目标是在7月份上市。</blockquote></p><p> The mega IPO highlights the lucrative business opportunity presented by Asian tech giants for Wall Street’s big investment banks.</p><p><blockquote>这次大型首次公开募股凸显了亚洲科技巨头为华尔街大型投资银行带来的利润丰厚的商机。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, Singapore’s biggest ride-hailing firm, Grab, struck a $40 billion deal with a special purpose acquisition company, backed by investment firm Altimeter, to go public in the United States.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，新加坡最大的打车公司 Grab 与一家由投资公司 Altimeter 支持的特殊目的收购公司达成了一项价值 400 亿美元的协议，将在美国上市。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, Chinese companies raised $12 billion from U.S. listings, more than triple the fundraising amount in 2019, according to Refinitiv data. This year, the raise from Chinese floats on U.S. exchanges is expected to comfortably surpass last year’s tally.</p><p><blockquote>路孚特数据显示，去年中国公司从美国上市筹集了 120 亿美元，是 2019 年筹资额的三倍多。今年，中国在美国交易所的流通量预计将轻松超过去年。</blockquote></p><p> Didi, which merged with then main rival Kuaidi in 2015 to create a smartphone-based transport services giant, counts as its core business a mobile app, where users can hail taxis, privately owned cars, car-pool options and even buses in some cities.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴于2015年与当时的主要竞争对手快的合并，创建了一家基于智能手机的交通服务巨头，其核心业务是移动应用程序，用户可以在其中叫出租车、私家车、拼车，甚至在一些城市叫公交车。</blockquote></p><p> Didi plans to list American Depositary Shares (ADSs) on either Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol \"DIDI\", the company said. (bit.ly/2RGjK0s)</p><p><blockquote>滴滴表示，计划在纳斯达克或纽约证券交易所上市美国存托股（ADS），股票代码为“DIDI”。(bit.ly/2RGjK0s)</blockquote></p><p> Didi Chief Executive Cheng Wei said last year the firm aims to have 800 million monthly active users globally and complete 100 million orders a day by 2022, including ride-sharing, bike and food delivery orders.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴首席执行官程维去年表示，该公司的目标是到2022年在全球拥有8亿月活跃用户，每天完成1亿个订单，包括拼车、自行车和送餐订单。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and J.P.Morgan are the lead underwriters for the offering.</p><p><blockquote>高盛、摩根士丹利和摩根大通是此次发行的主承销商。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China's Didi reveals U.S. IPO filing, sets stage for blockbuster New York float<blockquote>中国滴滴公布美国 IPO 文件，为纽约重磅上市奠定基础</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina's Didi reveals U.S. IPO filing, sets stage for blockbuster New York float<blockquote>中国滴滴公布美国 IPO 文件，为纽约重磅上市奠定基础</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 07:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) -Didi Chuxing, China’s biggest ride-hailing firm, on Thursday made public its filing for a U.S. stock market listing, setting the stage for what is expected to be the world’s biggest initial public offering this year.</p><p><blockquote>(路透社）--中国最大的网约车公司滴滴出行周四公开了其在美国股市上市的申请，为今年有望成为全球最大的首次公开募股奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> The company - backed by Asia’s largest technology investment firms, SoftBank, Alibaba and Tencent - did not reveal the size of the offering, but sources familiar with the matter had previously told Reuters that the ride-hailing giant could raise around $10 billion and seek a valuation of close to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该公司得到了亚洲最大的科技投资公司软银、阿里巴巴-SW和腾讯控股的支持，没有透露发行规模，但熟悉内情的消息人士此前曾告诉路透社，这家叫车巨头可能会融资约 100 亿美元，并寻求接近 1000 亿美元的估值。</blockquote></p><p> At that valuation, Didi’s stock market flotation would be the biggest Chinese share offering in the United States, since Alibaba raised $25 billion in its blockbuster IPO in 2014.</p><p><blockquote>按照这一估值，滴滴的首次公开募股将是自阿里巴巴-SW 2014 年首次公开募股（IPO）筹集 250 亿美元以来，在美国最大的中国股票发行。</blockquote></p><p> In its filing on Thursday, Didi revealed slower revenue growth in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which grounded the global ride-hailing industry to a halt as lockdowns were enforced all over the globe.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴在周四提交的文件中透露，由于 COVID-19 大流行的影响，2020 年收入增长放缓，随着全球各地实施封锁，全球网约车行业陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> For 2020, Didi reported revenue of 141.7 billion yuan ($22.17 billion), down from 154.8 billion yuan a year earlier. Net loss stood at 10.6 billion yuan in 2020, compared with 9.7 billion yuan a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，滴滴报告收入为 1,417 亿元人民币（221.7 亿美元），低于上年同期的 1,548 亿元人民币。2020年净亏损106亿元，上年同期为97亿元。</blockquote></p><p> However, Didi started 2021 strongly, as businesses reopened in China. Revenue more than doubled to 42.2 billion yuan (US$6.4 billion) for the three months ended March 31 from 20.5 billion yuan a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着中国业务重新开业，滴滴在2021年开局强劲。截至 3 月 31 日的三个月，收入从去年同期的 205 亿元人民币增长了一倍多，达到 422 亿元人民币（64 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> CHINESE IPO GOLD RUSH</p><p><blockquote>中国IPO淘金热</blockquote></p><p> Didi confidentially filed for its IPO in April. A source familiar with the matter on Thursday said Didi was aiming to go public in July.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴于4月份秘密申请IPO。一位知情人士周四表示，滴滴的目标是在7月份上市。</blockquote></p><p> The mega IPO highlights the lucrative business opportunity presented by Asian tech giants for Wall Street’s big investment banks.</p><p><blockquote>这次大型首次公开募股凸显了亚洲科技巨头为华尔街大型投资银行带来的利润丰厚的商机。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, Singapore’s biggest ride-hailing firm, Grab, struck a $40 billion deal with a special purpose acquisition company, backed by investment firm Altimeter, to go public in the United States.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，新加坡最大的打车公司 Grab 与一家由投资公司 Altimeter 支持的特殊目的收购公司达成了一项价值 400 亿美元的协议，将在美国上市。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, Chinese companies raised $12 billion from U.S. listings, more than triple the fundraising amount in 2019, according to Refinitiv data. This year, the raise from Chinese floats on U.S. exchanges is expected to comfortably surpass last year’s tally.</p><p><blockquote>路孚特数据显示，去年中国公司从美国上市筹集了 120 亿美元，是 2019 年筹资额的三倍多。今年，中国在美国交易所的流通量预计将轻松超过去年。</blockquote></p><p> Didi, which merged with then main rival Kuaidi in 2015 to create a smartphone-based transport services giant, counts as its core business a mobile app, where users can hail taxis, privately owned cars, car-pool options and even buses in some cities.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴于2015年与当时的主要竞争对手快的合并，创建了一家基于智能手机的交通服务巨头，其核心业务是移动应用程序，用户可以在其中叫出租车、私家车、拼车，甚至在一些城市叫公交车。</blockquote></p><p> Didi plans to list American Depositary Shares (ADSs) on either Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol \"DIDI\", the company said. (bit.ly/2RGjK0s)</p><p><blockquote>滴滴表示，计划在纳斯达克或纽约证券交易所上市美国存托股（ADS），股票代码为“DIDI”。(bit.ly/2RGjK0s)</blockquote></p><p> Didi Chief Executive Cheng Wei said last year the firm aims to have 800 million monthly active users globally and complete 100 million orders a day by 2022, including ride-sharing, bike and food delivery orders.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴首席执行官程维去年表示，该公司的目标是到2022年在全球拥有8亿月活跃用户，每天完成1亿个订单，包括拼车、自行车和送餐订单。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and J.P.Morgan are the lead underwriters for the offering.</p><p><blockquote>高盛、摩根士丹利和摩根大通是此次发行的主承销商。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/didi-ipo/update-2-chinas-didi-reveals-u-s-ipo-filing-sets-stage-for-blockbuster-new-york-float-idUSL3N2NS42U\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","UBER":"优步"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/didi-ipo/update-2-chinas-didi-reveals-u-s-ipo-filing-sets-stage-for-blockbuster-new-york-float-idUSL3N2NS42U","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152704038","content_text":"(Reuters) -Didi Chuxing, China’s biggest ride-hailing firm, on Thursday made public its filing for a U.S. stock market listing, setting the stage for what is expected to be the world’s biggest initial public offering this year.\nThe company - backed by Asia’s largest technology investment firms, SoftBank, Alibaba and Tencent - did not reveal the size of the offering, but sources familiar with the matter had previously told Reuters that the ride-hailing giant could raise around $10 billion and seek a valuation of close to $100 billion.\nAt that valuation, Didi’s stock market flotation would be the biggest Chinese share offering in the United States, since Alibaba raised $25 billion in its blockbuster IPO in 2014.\nIn its filing on Thursday, Didi revealed slower revenue growth in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which grounded the global ride-hailing industry to a halt as lockdowns were enforced all over the globe.\nFor 2020, Didi reported revenue of 141.7 billion yuan ($22.17 billion), down from 154.8 billion yuan a year earlier. Net loss stood at 10.6 billion yuan in 2020, compared with 9.7 billion yuan a year earlier.\nHowever, Didi started 2021 strongly, as businesses reopened in China. Revenue more than doubled to 42.2 billion yuan (US$6.4 billion) for the three months ended March 31 from 20.5 billion yuan a year earlier.\nCHINESE IPO GOLD RUSH\nDidi confidentially filed for its IPO in April. A source familiar with the matter on Thursday said Didi was aiming to go public in July.\nThe mega IPO highlights the lucrative business opportunity presented by Asian tech giants for Wall Street’s big investment banks.\nEarlier this year, Singapore’s biggest ride-hailing firm, Grab, struck a $40 billion deal with a special purpose acquisition company, backed by investment firm Altimeter, to go public in the United States.\nLast year, Chinese companies raised $12 billion from U.S. listings, more than triple the fundraising amount in 2019, according to Refinitiv data. This year, the raise from Chinese floats on U.S. exchanges is expected to comfortably surpass last year’s tally.\nDidi, which merged with then main rival Kuaidi in 2015 to create a smartphone-based transport services giant, counts as its core business a mobile app, where users can hail taxis, privately owned cars, car-pool options and even buses in some cities.\nDidi plans to list American Depositary Shares (ADSs) on either Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol \"DIDI\", the company said. (bit.ly/2RGjK0s)\nDidi Chief Executive Cheng Wei said last year the firm aims to have 800 million monthly active users globally and complete 100 million orders a day by 2022, including ride-sharing, bike and food delivery orders.\nGoldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and J.P.Morgan are the lead underwriters for the offering.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBER":0.9,"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":189562885,"gmtCreate":1623282218347,"gmtModify":1631894043741,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"U not bad","listText":"U not bad","text":"U not bad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189562885","repostId":"1136088365","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180172033,"gmtCreate":1623196727322,"gmtModify":1634035999554,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"WSB win","listText":"WSB win","text":"WSB win","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180172033","repostId":"1148360854","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148360854","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623195944,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148360854?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-09 07:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Clover Health Roars to Record as Short Sellers Get Burned<blockquote>随着卖空者被烧毁，Clover Health 创下纪录</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148360854","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Clover Health Inc., a health insurer backed by venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiy","content":"<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Clover Health Inc., a health insurer backed by venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya, was swept up in meme-stock mania on Tuesday, posting a second day of wild gains as retail ...</p><p><blockquote><div>（彭博）-由风险投资家Chamath Palihapitiya支持的健康保险公司Clover Health Inc.周二被迷因股票狂热席卷，零售股连续第二天大幅上涨……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palihapitiya-clover-roars-record-short-143312310.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palihapitiya-clover-roars-record-short-143312310.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Clover Health Roars to Record as Short Sellers Get Burned<blockquote>随着卖空者被烧毁，Clover Health 创下纪录</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nClover Health Roars to Record as Short Sellers Get Burned<blockquote>随着卖空者被烧毁，Clover Health 创下纪录</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-09 07:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- Clover Health Inc., a health insurer backed by venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya, was swept up in meme-stock mania on Tuesday, posting a second day of wild gains as retail ...</p><p><blockquote><div>（彭博）-由风险投资家Chamath Palihapitiya支持的健康保险公司Clover Health Inc.周二被迷因股票狂热席卷，零售股连续第二天大幅上涨……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palihapitiya-clover-roars-record-short-143312310.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palihapitiya-clover-roars-record-short-143312310.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palihapitiya-clover-roars-record-short-143312310.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CLOV":"Clover Health Corp"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palihapitiya-clover-roars-record-short-143312310.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148360854","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Clover Health Inc., a health insurer backed by venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya, was swept up in meme-stock mania on Tuesday, posting a second day of wild gains as retail investors banded together to punish short-sellers betting against the company.Clover rallied 86% to close at $22.15 in New York trading after briefly doubling intraday. The gains erased five months of losses in the stock -- which formed part of a broader selloff in Palihapitiya-backed companies -- in just two days. Trading volume in Clover was more than 29 times the three-month daily average on Tuesday, with a record 718 million shares changing hands.The sudden flurry of demand comes after retail traders realized that short-sellers had been swelling their bets against Clover, a move that left them vulnerable if the stock were to start rallying. The stock’s story -- like many retail plays -- has left behind fundamentals with shares trading above $20, that’s more than twice the average analyst estimate.On the Reddit forum WallStreetBets, chatter has built this week on the potential for a short-squeeze in the stock, following similar successful ploys on meme stocks including Workhorse Group Inc. and Richard Branson’s space exploration company Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc., which advanced 12% and 8.1%, respectively.Bearish bets in Clover have been steadily climbing since March and now stand at over $580 million or 44% of the public float, according to data from S3 Partners. Daytraders also touted the stock’s potential inclusion into the Russell indices -- a rebalancing of those benchmarks is expected toward the end of June.Read more: AMC, Wendy’s Lead Rally as Meme Stocks Rise for a Second Day“Short sellers appear to be shorting into a rising market and overheated stocks, they are looking for a pullback off of these elevated levels,” said Ihor Dusaniwsky, S3’s managing director of predictive analytics.Short sellers were down about $465 million on today’s move for a year-to-date loss of $517 million, he said.Clover declined to comment on the moves.Meme AdvanceOther retail-trader favorites, such as AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. and GameStop Corp., see-sawed on Tuesday amid heavy volume. Wendy’s Co., the latest addition to the retail-trader frenzy, climbed to a record amid touts on Reddit.“The power of the network effect of social media entices more people to get involved, so then they start broadening their horizons, looking for other names that have high short interest and things like that,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading.Before June, Clover saw its value split in half, with the once-hot market for companies brought to the market via SPACs, or blank-check companies, cooling off amid increased regulatory oversight.The outspoken Palihapitiya has remained undaunted. He plans to list 26 blank-check companies -- one for each letter of the alphabet -- and he kicked off with four new companies targeting the biotech sector last week. Clover is now up more than 30% for the year after a six-day winning streak.Clover’s head, Vivek Garipalli, who started off as a daytrader two decades ago, has embraced the support from retail investors.“We are a big believer in the retail investor community,” Garipall said on the company’s earnings call in May, one which invited Reddit users to participate.Clover shares surged more than 7% in the after hour trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLOV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114726473,"gmtCreate":1623107364092,"gmtModify":1634036997693,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yellen also hint the interest hike may happen soon","listText":"Yellen also hint the interest hike may happen soon","text":"Yellen also hint the interest hike may happen soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114726473","repostId":"1133083551","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115515947,"gmtCreate":1623022560489,"gmtModify":1634096250642,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OMG&nbsp;","listText":"OMG&nbsp;","text":"OMG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115515947","repostId":"2141281322","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115662695,"gmtCreate":1622987839817,"gmtModify":1634096393871,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment&nbsp;","listText":"Comment&nbsp;","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115662695","repostId":"2141128874","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115662902,"gmtCreate":1622987793106,"gmtModify":1634096394232,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Speechless]&nbsp;","listText":"[Speechless]&nbsp;","text":"[Speechless]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115662902","repostId":"2141402879","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141402879","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622942472,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2141402879?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-06 09:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Marqeta IPO: 5 things to know about the fintech company serving Square, DoorDash and others<blockquote>Marqeta IPO：关于这家为 Square、DoorDash 等公司提供服务的金融科技公司，您需要了解的 5 件事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141402879","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Marqeta could be valued at more than $12 billion after IPO that seeks to raise more than $1 billion\n","content":"<p>Marqeta could be valued at more than $12 billion after IPO that seeks to raise more than $1 billion</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 在寻求筹集超过 10 亿美元的 IPO 后估值可能超过 120 亿美元</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/412c348141d4444464c736dce5633419\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"937\"><span>Square Inc. accounted for 70% of Marqeta Inc.'s revenue last year; Marqeta's card-issuing technology helps Square offer debit cards to its Cash App customers.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Square Inc. 去年占 Marqeta Inc. 收入的 70%；Marqeta 的发卡技术帮助 Square 向其 Cash App 客户提供借记卡。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors could soon have a new way to play the payments infrastructure behind some of Silicon Valley's hottest companies.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能很快就会有一种新的方式来利用硅谷一些最热门公司背后的支付基础设施。</blockquote></p><p> Companies from Instacart to DoorDash Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DASH\">$(DASH)$</a> to Affirm Holdings Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$(AFRM)$</a> rely on card payments to facilitate customer purchases, allowing delivery workers to pay for just the items in orders, for instance. Marqeta Inc. offers card-issuing technology that lets businesses build out these functions, and the financial technology company is now in the process of going public.</p><p><blockquote>从Instacart到DoorDash Inc.的公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DASH\">$(破折号)$</a>肯定控股公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$(AFRM)$</a>例如，依靠卡支付来方便客户购买，允许送货员只支付订单中的商品。Marqeta Inc. 提供发卡技术，让企业能够构建这些功能，这家金融科技公司目前正在上市。</blockquote></p><p> Oakland, Calif.-based Marqeta, which was incorporated in 2010, says that's it putting a modern spin on the practice of issuing customized cards. The company offers application programming interfaces, or APIs, that let companies leverage Marqeta's relationships with banks and card networks while building out virtual and physical card programs.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于加利福尼亚州奥克兰的 Marqeta 成立于 2010 年，该公司表示，这是它为发行定制卡的做法注入了现代元素。该公司提供应用程序编程接口（API），使公司能够在构建虚拟和物理卡程序时利用 Marqeta 与银行和卡网络的关系。</blockquote></p><p> Square Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$(SQ)$</a> is Marqeta's largest customer, relying on Marqeta technology to power Cash Card debit cards that let users spend the funds from their mobile wallets. Marqeta also enables a function that lets Square's Cash App users receive direct deposits from employers or the government, according to the prospectus Marqeta filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ahead of its initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>广场公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$(平方)$</a>是 Marqeta 最大的客户，依靠 Marqeta 技术为 Cash Card 借记卡提供动力，让用户可以使用移动钱包中的资金。根据 Marqeta 在首次公开募股前向美国证券交易委员会提交的招股说明书，Marqeta 还启用了一项功能，允许 Square 的现金应用程序用户直接从雇主或政府接收存款。</blockquote></p><p> Marqeta is looking to offer about 45 million Class A shares priced at $20 to $24 apiece through its IPO, while founder and Chief Executive Jason Gardner, as well as early investors, receive class B shares with 10 times the voting power. The company would raise almost $1.1 billion at the high end of that proposed range while fetching a valuation over $12 billion. Underwriters, led by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, have access to an additional 6.8 million shares. Marqeta expects to list on the Nasdaq exchange under the ticker symbol MQ.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 希望通过 IPO 发行约 4500 万股 A 类股票，每股定价为 20 至 24 美元，而创始人兼首席执行官杰森·加德纳 (Jason Gardner) 以及早期投资者将获得 10 倍投票权的 B 类股票。该公司将在拟议范围的上限筹集近 11 亿美元，同时获得超过 120 亿美元的估值。以高盛和摩根大通为首的承销商可以额外获得 680 万股股票。Marqeta 预计将在纳斯达克交易所上市，股票代码为 MQ。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five things to know about Marqeta ahead of offering its shares, which are expected to begin trading on June 9.</p><p><blockquote>在 Marqeta 发行股票之前，您需要了解以下五件事，该公司预计将于 6 月 9 日开始交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Doubling revenue, but still in the red</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入翻番，但仍处于亏损状态</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta generated net revenue of $290.3 million last year, more than double the $143.3 million that the company recorded a year earlier. For the first quarter of 2021, Marqeta saw revenue rise to $108.0 million from $48.4 million.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 去年的净收入为 2.903 亿美元，是该公司去年同期 1.433 亿美元的两倍多。2021 年第一季度，Marqeta 的收入从 4840 万美元增至 1.08 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is still losing money, though losses narrowed in the last fiscal year. Marqeta posted a net loss of $47.7 million in 2020, compared with a loss of $58.2 million in 2019. Marqeta lost $12.8 million in the first quarter of 2021, compared with $14.5 million in the comparable period a year prior.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上一财年亏损有所收窄，但该公司仍在亏损。Marqeta 2020年净亏损4770万美元，而2019年亏损5820万美元。Marqeta 在 2021 年第一季度亏损 1280 万美元，而去年同期亏损 1450 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Marqeta's total processing volume, or the dollar value of payments processed through its platform, increased 167% in the first quarter to reach $24 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 的总处理量（即通过其平台处理的支付的美元价值）在第一季度增长了 167%，达到 240 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Squarely its biggest customer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完全是它最大的客户</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta is highly reliant on Square, which accounted for 70% of the company's net revenue last year and 73% of its net revenue in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta高度依赖Square，Square占公司去年净收入的70%，2021年第一季度净收入的73%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Although we expect the net revenue from our largest customer will decrease over time as a percentage of our total net revenue as we generate more net revenue from other customers, we expect that net revenue from a relatively small group of customers will continue to account for a significant portion of our net revenue in the near term,\" the company notes among the risk factors listed in its prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管我们预计来自最大客户的净收入占我们总净收入的百分比将随着时间的推移而下降，因为我们从其他客户那里产生了更多的净收入，但我们预计来自相对较小的客户群的净收入将继续占我们短期内净收入的很大一部分，”该公司在招股说明书中列出的风险因素中指出。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's unprecedented to see a company going public with that much of business coming from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> customer,\" Jordan McKee, a principal analyst at 451 Research, told MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>“看到一家公司上市时拥有如此多的业务，这是前所未有的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>客户，”451 Research 首席分析师 Jordan McKee 告诉 MarketWatch。</blockquote></p><p> Marqeta's Cash App contract term ends in March 2024, and its contract for the Square Card -- a separate product meant for businesses -- expires in December 2024. Both agreements can automatically renew for successive <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-year periods after that.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 的 Cash App 合同期将于 2024 年 3 月结束，其 Square Card（一种面向企业的独立产品）的合同将于 2024 年 12 月到期。两份协议均可自动续期<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-之后的几年。</blockquote></p><p> Bernstein analyst Harshita Rawat sees little risk that Square moves its business to another card-issuing platform, since the other companies offering this technology are those Square competes with in other areas of its business. The bigger long-term risk is that Square develops card-issuing capabilities in-house, in her view.</p><p><blockquote>Bernstein 分析师 Harshita Rawat 认为 Square 将业务转移到另一个发卡平台的风险很小，因为提供这项技术的其他公司是 Square 在其他业务领域竞争的公司。她认为，更大的长期风险是 Square 在内部开发发卡能力。</blockquote></p><p> \"While it is very hard to definitively say whether Square is considering building an in-house solution or not ---- we believe precedence exists with Stripe and Adyen, and as such this customer-concentration risk should be baked into Marqeta's valuation,\" Rawat wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然很难明确地说 Square 是否正在考虑构建内部解决方案，但我们认为 Stripe 和 Adyen 具有优先权，因此这种客户集中风险应该纳入 Marqeta 的估值中，”拉瓦特写道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Meet the competition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>迎接竞争</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Marqeta concedes that it's in a competitive market, as the company goes up against more traditional players like Global Payments Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPN\">$(GPN)$</a> and Fiserv Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISV\">$(FISV)$</a> as well as \"emerging providers\" like Stripe and Adyen NV .</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 承认，这是一个竞争激烈的市场，因为该公司将与 Global Payments Inc. 等更传统的参与者展开竞争。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPN\">$(GPN)$</a>和 Fiserv 公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISV\">$(FISV)$</a>以及 Stripe 和 Adyen NV 等“新兴提供商”。</blockquote></p><p> Rawat wrote that the more old-school financial-services players \"don't have adequate capabilities and speed-to-market to compete effectively in new-age issuer market,\" though she's \"closely watching Stripe as one of the most formidable competitors for Marqeta over time.\" Stripe has existing relationships with merchants as well as a more \"off-the-shelf\" product.</p><p><blockquote>拉瓦特写道，更老派的金融服务参与者“没有足够的能力和上市速度来在新时代的发行人市场中有效竞争”，尽管她“正在密切关注 Stripe，将其视为 Marqeta 最强大的竞争对手之一随着时间的推移。”Stripe与商家有现有的关系，也有更“现成”的产品。</blockquote></p><p> While Rawat highlighted Stripe's more generalized offering as a possible benefit for that company relative to Marqeta, which has a more customizable product, Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams saw things differently after a number of industry conversations, including with a former Marqeta product vice president. Williams pointed to the customization options as an advantage for Marqeta and said that there are high switching costs of moving to a new platform.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Rawat 强调 Stripe 更通用的产品对该公司来说可能是一个好处，而 Marqeta 拥有更可定制的产品，但 Jefferies 分析师 Trevor Williams 在多次行业对话（包括与前 Marqeta 产品副总裁）后，有了不同的看法。Williams 指出定制选项是 Marqeta 的优势，并表示迁移到新平台的转换成本很高。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our expert believes switches are unlikely unless a business need is not being met by Marqeta,\" he wrote, citing the \"engineering resources needed to manage a conversion, especially if card products are noncore for the customer (e.g. DoorDash isn't dependent on interchange).\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的专家认为，除非 Marqeta 满足业务需求，否则不太可能进行转换，”他写道，并引用了“管理转换所需的工程资源，特别是如果卡产品不是客户的核心产品（例如 DoorDash 不依赖于交换）。”</blockquote></p><p> MKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni wrote that the upstart fintech competitors have \"similar but arguably less sophisticated offerings.\"</p><p><blockquote>MKM Partners 分析师 Rohit Kulkarni 写道，新贵金融科技竞争对手拥有“类似但可以说不太复杂的产品”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>About interchange</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于交换</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta generates most of its revenue from interchange fees, which are fees that merchant banks pay card-issuing banks when a customer makes a transaction with a credit or debit card. \"Our agreements with issuing banks provide that we receive 100% of the interchange fees for processing our customer's card transactions,\" Marqeta notes it its prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 的大部分收入来自交换费，交换费是当客户使用信用卡或借记卡进行交易时，商业银行向发卡银行支付的费用。Marqeta 在其招股说明书中指出：“我们与发卡银行的协议规定，我们将收取 100% 的交换费来处理客户的卡交易。”</blockquote></p><p> Card networks set interchange fees, but the Durbin Amendment in 2010 capped debit interchange. Some smaller banks are exempt from the Durbin limits, however, and Marqeta \"currently only contract[s] with issuing banks that are exempt from the Durbin Amendment when we provide program management services,\" according to the company's prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>卡网络设定交换费，但2010年的德宾修正案限制了借记交换。然而，一些较小的银行不受德宾限制的约束，根据该公司的招股说明书，Marqeta“目前仅在我们提供项目管理服务时与不受德宾修正案约束的发行银行签订合同”。</blockquote></p><p> \"In a nutshell, Durbin-exempt interchange [percentage] across consumer and commercial card transactions (both of which Marqeta is exposed to through its different offerings) is likely 1.4% average for consumer (there is a wide range depending on the type of transaction) and &gt;2% for commercial spend,\" Bernstein's Rawat wrote. \"This is in contrast to 0.5% average interchange for Durbin-regulated transactions.\"</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，消费者和商业卡交易（Marqeta 通过其不同的产品进行这两种交易）的德宾豁免交换 [百分比] 对于消费者来说可能平均为 1.4%（范围很广，具体取决于交易类型）和 &gt;2% 用于商业支出，”伯恩斯坦的拉瓦特写道。“这与德宾监管交易的平均交换率为 0.5% 形成鲜明对比。”</blockquote></p><p> Rawat believes that Marqeta's work with Durbin-exempt issuers helps the company generate higher revenue \"yields\" than more traditional partners that work with larger, nonexempt issuing banks, meaning that the company can keep a greater portion of volume as revenue. While she said that investors should monitor the risk of potential changes to exemption rules, she also wrote that \"there doesn't appear to be a willingness by the regulators or government to repeal Durbin exemption or make it harder for fintechs or tech giants to benefit from this.\"</p><p><blockquote>Rawat 认为，Marqeta 与 Durbin 豁免发行人的合作有助于该公司产生比与更大的非豁免发行银行合作的更传统合作伙伴更高的收入“收益率”，这意味着该公司可以保留更大份额的收入。虽然她表示投资者应该监控豁免规则潜在变化的风险，但她也写道，“监管机构或政府似乎不愿意废除德宾豁免，也不愿意让金融科技公司或科技巨头更难从中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A big market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大市场</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta processed about $60 billion of volume last year, which it notes is less than 1% of the $6.7 trillion of volume that flowed through U.S. issuers in the same period, based on estimates from The Nilson Report, a payments-industry publication.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 去年处理了约 600 亿美元的交易量，根据支付行业出版物 Nilson Report 的估计，该公司指出，这还不到同期美国发行商 6.7 万亿美元交易量的 1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe that our share of this massive opportunity will continue to increase due to our unique platform, competitive advantages, and a strong culture of innovation,\" the company said in its prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在招股说明书中表示：“我们相信，由于我们独特的平台、竞争优势和强大的创新文化，我们在这一巨大机遇中的份额将继续增加。”</blockquote></p><p> Rawat wrote that Marqeta's \"growth runway is immense.\" Further opportunities include greater international expansion and progress with recently launched credit-processing initiatives, in her view.</p><p><blockquote>拉瓦特写道，Marqeta 的“增长跑道是巨大的”。她认为，进一步的机会包括更大的国际扩张和最近启动的信贷处理计划的进展。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarqeta IPO: 5 things to know about the fintech company serving Square, DoorDash and others<blockquote>Marqeta IPO：关于这家为 Square、DoorDash 等公司提供服务的金融科技公司，您需要了解的 5 件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 09:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Marqeta could be valued at more than $12 billion after IPO that seeks to raise more than $1 billion</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 在寻求筹集超过 10 亿美元的 IPO 后估值可能超过 120 亿美元</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/412c348141d4444464c736dce5633419\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"937\"><span>Square Inc. accounted for 70% of Marqeta Inc.'s revenue last year; Marqeta's card-issuing technology helps Square offer debit cards to its Cash App customers.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Square Inc. 去年占 Marqeta Inc. 收入的 70%；Marqeta 的发卡技术帮助 Square 向其 Cash App 客户提供借记卡。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors could soon have a new way to play the payments infrastructure behind some of Silicon Valley's hottest companies.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能很快就会有一种新的方式来利用硅谷一些最热门公司背后的支付基础设施。</blockquote></p><p> Companies from Instacart to DoorDash Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DASH\">$(DASH)$</a> to Affirm Holdings Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$(AFRM)$</a> rely on card payments to facilitate customer purchases, allowing delivery workers to pay for just the items in orders, for instance. Marqeta Inc. offers card-issuing technology that lets businesses build out these functions, and the financial technology company is now in the process of going public.</p><p><blockquote>从Instacart到DoorDash Inc.的公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DASH\">$(破折号)$</a>肯定控股公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$(AFRM)$</a>例如，依靠卡支付来方便客户购买，允许送货员只支付订单中的商品。Marqeta Inc. 提供发卡技术，让企业能够构建这些功能，这家金融科技公司目前正在上市。</blockquote></p><p> Oakland, Calif.-based Marqeta, which was incorporated in 2010, says that's it putting a modern spin on the practice of issuing customized cards. The company offers application programming interfaces, or APIs, that let companies leverage Marqeta's relationships with banks and card networks while building out virtual and physical card programs.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于加利福尼亚州奥克兰的 Marqeta 成立于 2010 年，该公司表示，这是它为发行定制卡的做法注入了现代元素。该公司提供应用程序编程接口（API），使公司能够在构建虚拟和物理卡程序时利用 Marqeta 与银行和卡网络的关系。</blockquote></p><p> Square Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$(SQ)$</a> is Marqeta's largest customer, relying on Marqeta technology to power Cash Card debit cards that let users spend the funds from their mobile wallets. Marqeta also enables a function that lets Square's Cash App users receive direct deposits from employers or the government, according to the prospectus Marqeta filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ahead of its initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>广场公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$(平方)$</a>是 Marqeta 最大的客户，依靠 Marqeta 技术为 Cash Card 借记卡提供动力，让用户可以使用移动钱包中的资金。根据 Marqeta 在首次公开募股前向美国证券交易委员会提交的招股说明书，Marqeta 还启用了一项功能，允许 Square 的现金应用程序用户直接从雇主或政府接收存款。</blockquote></p><p> Marqeta is looking to offer about 45 million Class A shares priced at $20 to $24 apiece through its IPO, while founder and Chief Executive Jason Gardner, as well as early investors, receive class B shares with 10 times the voting power. The company would raise almost $1.1 billion at the high end of that proposed range while fetching a valuation over $12 billion. Underwriters, led by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, have access to an additional 6.8 million shares. Marqeta expects to list on the Nasdaq exchange under the ticker symbol MQ.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 希望通过 IPO 发行约 4500 万股 A 类股票，每股定价为 20 至 24 美元，而创始人兼首席执行官杰森·加德纳 (Jason Gardner) 以及早期投资者将获得 10 倍投票权的 B 类股票。该公司将在拟议范围的上限筹集近 11 亿美元，同时获得超过 120 亿美元的估值。以高盛和摩根大通为首的承销商可以额外获得 680 万股股票。Marqeta 预计将在纳斯达克交易所上市，股票代码为 MQ。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five things to know about Marqeta ahead of offering its shares, which are expected to begin trading on June 9.</p><p><blockquote>在 Marqeta 发行股票之前，您需要了解以下五件事，该公司预计将于 6 月 9 日开始交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Doubling revenue, but still in the red</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入翻番，但仍处于亏损状态</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta generated net revenue of $290.3 million last year, more than double the $143.3 million that the company recorded a year earlier. For the first quarter of 2021, Marqeta saw revenue rise to $108.0 million from $48.4 million.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 去年的净收入为 2.903 亿美元，是该公司去年同期 1.433 亿美元的两倍多。2021 年第一季度，Marqeta 的收入从 4840 万美元增至 1.08 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is still losing money, though losses narrowed in the last fiscal year. Marqeta posted a net loss of $47.7 million in 2020, compared with a loss of $58.2 million in 2019. Marqeta lost $12.8 million in the first quarter of 2021, compared with $14.5 million in the comparable period a year prior.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上一财年亏损有所收窄，但该公司仍在亏损。Marqeta 2020年净亏损4770万美元，而2019年亏损5820万美元。Marqeta 在 2021 年第一季度亏损 1280 万美元，而去年同期亏损 1450 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Marqeta's total processing volume, or the dollar value of payments processed through its platform, increased 167% in the first quarter to reach $24 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 的总处理量（即通过其平台处理的支付的美元价值）在第一季度增长了 167%，达到 240 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Squarely its biggest customer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完全是它最大的客户</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta is highly reliant on Square, which accounted for 70% of the company's net revenue last year and 73% of its net revenue in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta高度依赖Square，Square占公司去年净收入的70%，2021年第一季度净收入的73%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Although we expect the net revenue from our largest customer will decrease over time as a percentage of our total net revenue as we generate more net revenue from other customers, we expect that net revenue from a relatively small group of customers will continue to account for a significant portion of our net revenue in the near term,\" the company notes among the risk factors listed in its prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管我们预计来自最大客户的净收入占我们总净收入的百分比将随着时间的推移而下降，因为我们从其他客户那里产生了更多的净收入，但我们预计来自相对较小的客户群的净收入将继续占我们短期内净收入的很大一部分，”该公司在招股说明书中列出的风险因素中指出。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's unprecedented to see a company going public with that much of business coming from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> customer,\" Jordan McKee, a principal analyst at 451 Research, told MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>“看到一家公司上市时拥有如此多的业务，这是前所未有的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>客户，”451 Research 首席分析师 Jordan McKee 告诉 MarketWatch。</blockquote></p><p> Marqeta's Cash App contract term ends in March 2024, and its contract for the Square Card -- a separate product meant for businesses -- expires in December 2024. Both agreements can automatically renew for successive <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-year periods after that.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 的 Cash App 合同期将于 2024 年 3 月结束，其 Square Card（一种面向企业的独立产品）的合同将于 2024 年 12 月到期。两份协议均可自动续期<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-之后的几年。</blockquote></p><p> Bernstein analyst Harshita Rawat sees little risk that Square moves its business to another card-issuing platform, since the other companies offering this technology are those Square competes with in other areas of its business. The bigger long-term risk is that Square develops card-issuing capabilities in-house, in her view.</p><p><blockquote>Bernstein 分析师 Harshita Rawat 认为 Square 将业务转移到另一个发卡平台的风险很小，因为提供这项技术的其他公司是 Square 在其他业务领域竞争的公司。她认为，更大的长期风险是 Square 在内部开发发卡能力。</blockquote></p><p> \"While it is very hard to definitively say whether Square is considering building an in-house solution or not ---- we believe precedence exists with Stripe and Adyen, and as such this customer-concentration risk should be baked into Marqeta's valuation,\" Rawat wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然很难明确地说 Square 是否正在考虑构建内部解决方案，但我们认为 Stripe 和 Adyen 具有优先权，因此这种客户集中风险应该纳入 Marqeta 的估值中，”拉瓦特写道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Meet the competition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>迎接竞争</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Marqeta concedes that it's in a competitive market, as the company goes up against more traditional players like Global Payments Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPN\">$(GPN)$</a> and Fiserv Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISV\">$(FISV)$</a> as well as \"emerging providers\" like Stripe and Adyen NV .</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 承认，这是一个竞争激烈的市场，因为该公司将与 Global Payments Inc. 等更传统的参与者展开竞争。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPN\">$(GPN)$</a>和 Fiserv 公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISV\">$(FISV)$</a>以及 Stripe 和 Adyen NV 等“新兴提供商”。</blockquote></p><p> Rawat wrote that the more old-school financial-services players \"don't have adequate capabilities and speed-to-market to compete effectively in new-age issuer market,\" though she's \"closely watching Stripe as one of the most formidable competitors for Marqeta over time.\" Stripe has existing relationships with merchants as well as a more \"off-the-shelf\" product.</p><p><blockquote>拉瓦特写道，更老派的金融服务参与者“没有足够的能力和上市速度来在新时代的发行人市场中有效竞争”，尽管她“正在密切关注 Stripe，将其视为 Marqeta 最强大的竞争对手之一随着时间的推移。”Stripe与商家有现有的关系，也有更“现成”的产品。</blockquote></p><p> While Rawat highlighted Stripe's more generalized offering as a possible benefit for that company relative to Marqeta, which has a more customizable product, Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams saw things differently after a number of industry conversations, including with a former Marqeta product vice president. Williams pointed to the customization options as an advantage for Marqeta and said that there are high switching costs of moving to a new platform.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Rawat 强调 Stripe 更通用的产品对该公司来说可能是一个好处，而 Marqeta 拥有更可定制的产品，但 Jefferies 分析师 Trevor Williams 在多次行业对话（包括与前 Marqeta 产品副总裁）后，有了不同的看法。Williams 指出定制选项是 Marqeta 的优势，并表示迁移到新平台的转换成本很高。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our expert believes switches are unlikely unless a business need is not being met by Marqeta,\" he wrote, citing the \"engineering resources needed to manage a conversion, especially if card products are noncore for the customer (e.g. DoorDash isn't dependent on interchange).\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的专家认为，除非 Marqeta 满足业务需求，否则不太可能进行转换，”他写道，并引用了“管理转换所需的工程资源，特别是如果卡产品不是客户的核心产品（例如 DoorDash 不依赖于交换）。”</blockquote></p><p> MKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni wrote that the upstart fintech competitors have \"similar but arguably less sophisticated offerings.\"</p><p><blockquote>MKM Partners 分析师 Rohit Kulkarni 写道，新贵金融科技竞争对手拥有“类似但可以说不太复杂的产品”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>About interchange</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于交换</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta generates most of its revenue from interchange fees, which are fees that merchant banks pay card-issuing banks when a customer makes a transaction with a credit or debit card. \"Our agreements with issuing banks provide that we receive 100% of the interchange fees for processing our customer's card transactions,\" Marqeta notes it its prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 的大部分收入来自交换费，交换费是当客户使用信用卡或借记卡进行交易时，商业银行向发卡银行支付的费用。Marqeta 在其招股说明书中指出：“我们与发卡银行的协议规定，我们将收取 100% 的交换费来处理客户的卡交易。”</blockquote></p><p> Card networks set interchange fees, but the Durbin Amendment in 2010 capped debit interchange. Some smaller banks are exempt from the Durbin limits, however, and Marqeta \"currently only contract[s] with issuing banks that are exempt from the Durbin Amendment when we provide program management services,\" according to the company's prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>卡网络设定交换费，但2010年的德宾修正案限制了借记交换。然而，一些较小的银行不受德宾限制的约束，根据该公司的招股说明书，Marqeta“目前仅在我们提供项目管理服务时与不受德宾修正案约束的发行银行签订合同”。</blockquote></p><p> \"In a nutshell, Durbin-exempt interchange [percentage] across consumer and commercial card transactions (both of which Marqeta is exposed to through its different offerings) is likely 1.4% average for consumer (there is a wide range depending on the type of transaction) and &gt;2% for commercial spend,\" Bernstein's Rawat wrote. \"This is in contrast to 0.5% average interchange for Durbin-regulated transactions.\"</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，消费者和商业卡交易（Marqeta 通过其不同的产品进行这两种交易）的德宾豁免交换 [百分比] 对于消费者来说可能平均为 1.4%（范围很广，具体取决于交易类型）和 &gt;2% 用于商业支出，”伯恩斯坦的拉瓦特写道。“这与德宾监管交易的平均交换率为 0.5% 形成鲜明对比。”</blockquote></p><p> Rawat believes that Marqeta's work with Durbin-exempt issuers helps the company generate higher revenue \"yields\" than more traditional partners that work with larger, nonexempt issuing banks, meaning that the company can keep a greater portion of volume as revenue. While she said that investors should monitor the risk of potential changes to exemption rules, she also wrote that \"there doesn't appear to be a willingness by the regulators or government to repeal Durbin exemption or make it harder for fintechs or tech giants to benefit from this.\"</p><p><blockquote>Rawat 认为，Marqeta 与 Durbin 豁免发行人的合作有助于该公司产生比与更大的非豁免发行银行合作的更传统合作伙伴更高的收入“收益率”，这意味着该公司可以保留更大份额的收入。虽然她表示投资者应该监控豁免规则潜在变化的风险，但她也写道，“监管机构或政府似乎不愿意废除德宾豁免，也不愿意让金融科技公司或科技巨头更难从中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A big market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大市场</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta processed about $60 billion of volume last year, which it notes is less than 1% of the $6.7 trillion of volume that flowed through U.S. issuers in the same period, based on estimates from The Nilson Report, a payments-industry publication.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 去年处理了约 600 亿美元的交易量，根据支付行业出版物 Nilson Report 的估计，该公司指出，这还不到同期美国发行商 6.7 万亿美元交易量的 1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe that our share of this massive opportunity will continue to increase due to our unique platform, competitive advantages, and a strong culture of innovation,\" the company said in its prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在招股说明书中表示：“我们相信，由于我们独特的平台、竞争优势和强大的创新文化，我们在这一巨大机遇中的份额将继续增加。”</blockquote></p><p> Rawat wrote that Marqeta's \"growth runway is immense.\" Further opportunities include greater international expansion and progress with recently launched credit-processing initiatives, in her view.</p><p><blockquote>拉瓦特写道，Marqeta 的“增长跑道是巨大的”。她认为，进一步的机会包括更大的国际扩张和最近启动的信贷处理计划的进展。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/marqeta-ipo-5-things-to-know-about-the-fintech-company-serving-square-doordash-and-others-11622828431?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MQ":"Marqeta, Inc.","DASH":"DoorDash, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/marqeta-ipo-5-things-to-know-about-the-fintech-company-serving-square-doordash-and-others-11622828431?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141402879","content_text":"Marqeta could be valued at more than $12 billion after IPO that seeks to raise more than $1 billion\nSquare Inc. accounted for 70% of Marqeta Inc.'s revenue last year; Marqeta's card-issuing technology helps Square offer debit cards to its Cash App customers.\nInvestors could soon have a new way to play the payments infrastructure behind some of Silicon Valley's hottest companies.\nCompanies from Instacart to DoorDash Inc. $(DASH)$ to Affirm Holdings Inc. $(AFRM)$ rely on card payments to facilitate customer purchases, allowing delivery workers to pay for just the items in orders, for instance. Marqeta Inc. offers card-issuing technology that lets businesses build out these functions, and the financial technology company is now in the process of going public.\nOakland, Calif.-based Marqeta, which was incorporated in 2010, says that's it putting a modern spin on the practice of issuing customized cards. The company offers application programming interfaces, or APIs, that let companies leverage Marqeta's relationships with banks and card networks while building out virtual and physical card programs.\nSquare Inc. $(SQ)$ is Marqeta's largest customer, relying on Marqeta technology to power Cash Card debit cards that let users spend the funds from their mobile wallets. Marqeta also enables a function that lets Square's Cash App users receive direct deposits from employers or the government, according to the prospectus Marqeta filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ahead of its initial public offering.\nMarqeta is looking to offer about 45 million Class A shares priced at $20 to $24 apiece through its IPO, while founder and Chief Executive Jason Gardner, as well as early investors, receive class B shares with 10 times the voting power. The company would raise almost $1.1 billion at the high end of that proposed range while fetching a valuation over $12 billion. Underwriters, led by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, have access to an additional 6.8 million shares. Marqeta expects to list on the Nasdaq exchange under the ticker symbol MQ.\nHere are five things to know about Marqeta ahead of offering its shares, which are expected to begin trading on June 9.\nDoubling revenue, but still in the red\nMarqeta generated net revenue of $290.3 million last year, more than double the $143.3 million that the company recorded a year earlier. For the first quarter of 2021, Marqeta saw revenue rise to $108.0 million from $48.4 million.\nThe company is still losing money, though losses narrowed in the last fiscal year. Marqeta posted a net loss of $47.7 million in 2020, compared with a loss of $58.2 million in 2019. Marqeta lost $12.8 million in the first quarter of 2021, compared with $14.5 million in the comparable period a year prior.\nMarqeta's total processing volume, or the dollar value of payments processed through its platform, increased 167% in the first quarter to reach $24 billion.\nSquarely its biggest customer\nMarqeta is highly reliant on Square, which accounted for 70% of the company's net revenue last year and 73% of its net revenue in the first quarter of 2021.\n\"Although we expect the net revenue from our largest customer will decrease over time as a percentage of our total net revenue as we generate more net revenue from other customers, we expect that net revenue from a relatively small group of customers will continue to account for a significant portion of our net revenue in the near term,\" the company notes among the risk factors listed in its prospectus.\n\"It's unprecedented to see a company going public with that much of business coming from one customer,\" Jordan McKee, a principal analyst at 451 Research, told MarketWatch.\nMarqeta's Cash App contract term ends in March 2024, and its contract for the Square Card -- a separate product meant for businesses -- expires in December 2024. Both agreements can automatically renew for successive one-year periods after that.\nBernstein analyst Harshita Rawat sees little risk that Square moves its business to another card-issuing platform, since the other companies offering this technology are those Square competes with in other areas of its business. The bigger long-term risk is that Square develops card-issuing capabilities in-house, in her view.\n\"While it is very hard to definitively say whether Square is considering building an in-house solution or not ---- we believe precedence exists with Stripe and Adyen, and as such this customer-concentration risk should be baked into Marqeta's valuation,\" Rawat wrote.\nMeet the competition\nMarqeta concedes that it's in a competitive market, as the company goes up against more traditional players like Global Payments Inc. $(GPN)$ and Fiserv Inc. $(FISV)$ as well as \"emerging providers\" like Stripe and Adyen NV .\nRawat wrote that the more old-school financial-services players \"don't have adequate capabilities and speed-to-market to compete effectively in new-age issuer market,\" though she's \"closely watching Stripe as one of the most formidable competitors for Marqeta over time.\" Stripe has existing relationships with merchants as well as a more \"off-the-shelf\" product.\nWhile Rawat highlighted Stripe's more generalized offering as a possible benefit for that company relative to Marqeta, which has a more customizable product, Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams saw things differently after a number of industry conversations, including with a former Marqeta product vice president. Williams pointed to the customization options as an advantage for Marqeta and said that there are high switching costs of moving to a new platform.\n\"Our expert believes switches are unlikely unless a business need is not being met by Marqeta,\" he wrote, citing the \"engineering resources needed to manage a conversion, especially if card products are noncore for the customer (e.g. DoorDash isn't dependent on interchange).\"\nMKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni wrote that the upstart fintech competitors have \"similar but arguably less sophisticated offerings.\"\nAbout interchange\nMarqeta generates most of its revenue from interchange fees, which are fees that merchant banks pay card-issuing banks when a customer makes a transaction with a credit or debit card. \"Our agreements with issuing banks provide that we receive 100% of the interchange fees for processing our customer's card transactions,\" Marqeta notes it its prospectus.\nCard networks set interchange fees, but the Durbin Amendment in 2010 capped debit interchange. Some smaller banks are exempt from the Durbin limits, however, and Marqeta \"currently only contract[s] with issuing banks that are exempt from the Durbin Amendment when we provide program management services,\" according to the company's prospectus.\n\"In a nutshell, Durbin-exempt interchange [percentage] across consumer and commercial card transactions (both of which Marqeta is exposed to through its different offerings) is likely 1.4% average for consumer (there is a wide range depending on the type of transaction) and >2% for commercial spend,\" Bernstein's Rawat wrote. \"This is in contrast to 0.5% average interchange for Durbin-regulated transactions.\"\nRawat believes that Marqeta's work with Durbin-exempt issuers helps the company generate higher revenue \"yields\" than more traditional partners that work with larger, nonexempt issuing banks, meaning that the company can keep a greater portion of volume as revenue. While she said that investors should monitor the risk of potential changes to exemption rules, she also wrote that \"there doesn't appear to be a willingness by the regulators or government to repeal Durbin exemption or make it harder for fintechs or tech giants to benefit from this.\"\nA big market\nMarqeta processed about $60 billion of volume last year, which it notes is less than 1% of the $6.7 trillion of volume that flowed through U.S. issuers in the same period, based on estimates from The Nilson Report, a payments-industry publication.\n\"We believe that our share of this massive opportunity will continue to increase due to our unique platform, competitive advantages, and a strong culture of innovation,\" the company said in its prospectus.\nRawat wrote that Marqeta's \"growth runway is immense.\" Further opportunities include greater international expansion and progress with recently launched credit-processing initiatives, in her view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DASH":0.9,"MQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":922,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115663221,"gmtCreate":1622987390963,"gmtModify":1634096396608,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Open is also same","listText":"Open is also same","text":"Open is also same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115663221","repostId":"1120164826","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120164826","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622951745,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1120164826?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-06 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍然存在重大缺点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120164826","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was publishe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在 Seeking Alpha 上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group 的股价已下跌约 30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整后 EBITDA 指引疲软（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的远期市盈率仍接近 100 倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock Editories，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>这个<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，ZG已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向 iHome 业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与 ZG 的抵押贷款部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门融合得很好。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG 似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一句话——很可怜。此外，第二季度指引疲软，该公司计划今年额外招聘 2,000 名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理性</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com的人，看看当前的“Zestimate”对我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家来说是多少。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量中排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与 Realtor.com 争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow 集团在房地产网站市场（至少根据独特访问量指标）的份额增加了 3 倍多：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一个页面然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的比较。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的类似网站评级中肯定还有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们可以说rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大和市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的……观点和活动需要转化为利润，这就是 Zillow 集团与其相当高的估值相比陷入困境的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow 于 5 月 4 日发布了第一季度每股收益报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP 每股净利润为 0.20 美元，超出预期 0.13 美元。收入为 12.2 亿美元，比上年增长 1.2 亿美元，同比增长 8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序的流量强劲，平均每月用户数量为 2.21 亿（同比增长 15%），第一季度访问量为 25 亿次（同比增长 19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>Q1 最有趣的细分市场是 iHome（或 ZG 评级“Zillow 提供的”），因为它约占收入的 57%，并且是 Zillow 指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow 第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）仅为平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome 业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向 iHome 几乎削弱了公司的主要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着 Zillow 的广告收入将面临更大的压力，而广告收入通常来自其 iHome 部门现在正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率仅为 4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前进</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow 第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导总额调整后 EBITDA（1.28 亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>会大幅下降</b>第一季度交付的调整后 EBITDA 总额为 1.81 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在 SEC 10-Q 文件中找到）为 259,346,000 股（同比增长高达 23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股份数量将继续增长至约 2.655 亿股（基于上述指引）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后 EBITDA 下降，完全稀释股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近进行了调整（请注意，自我 3 月份发表 Seeking Alpha 文章以来，该股已下跌约 30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7x。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>就 Zillow 的增长前景（或非增长）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较……）考虑到第二季度指引疲软。此外，我不清楚什么催化剂将是改善该公司未来极低的利润率。尤其是考虑到<b>Zillow 计划今年增聘 2,000 名员工</b>，使其员工人数增加了约40%。在我看来，当谈到提高利润率时，员工人数的增长将是一个重大的阻力。也就是说，Zillow 在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向 iHome 也意味着 ZG 现在面临着更多的宏观风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买 Zillow Group 的风险是一个近乎完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于 ZG 的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价是完美的，而且自那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了 30%，现在我将简单地给 ZG 一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>商品消息是，Zillow 的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成 5.51 亿美元的股票发行后，该季度末拥有 47 亿美元现金（高于 2020 年底的 39 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为 22.59 亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末2.655亿股稀释后的流通股，该公司的净现金估计为每股9.19美元。Zillow 可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接接触房地产市场而导致的较高风险状况。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可以瞬息万变，并可能抓住ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结与结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Zillow 的第一季度报告无疑在连续基础上有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其已证明的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎完全不正常。尽管房地产市场火爆且高度升值，但第二季度调整后 EBITDA 环比下降……嗯，我就是看不懂现在的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对它感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以 ZG 的五年价格图表作为结尾，并指出我的 50 美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来发布的每股收益报告并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前的110美元水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍然存在重大缺点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍然存在重大缺点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 11:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在 Seeking Alpha 上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group 的股价已下跌约 30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整后 EBITDA 指引疲软（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的远期市盈率仍接近 100 倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock Editories，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>这个<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，ZG已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向 iHome 业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与 ZG 的抵押贷款部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门融合得很好。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG 似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一句话——很可怜。此外，第二季度指引疲软，该公司计划今年额外招聘 2,000 名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理性</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com的人，看看当前的“Zestimate”对我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家来说是多少。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量中排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与 Realtor.com 争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow 集团在房地产网站市场（至少根据独特访问量指标）的份额增加了 3 倍多：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一个页面然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的比较。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的类似网站评级中肯定还有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们可以说rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大和市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的……观点和活动需要转化为利润，这就是 Zillow 集团与其相当高的估值相比陷入困境的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow 于 5 月 4 日发布了第一季度每股收益报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP 每股净利润为 0.20 美元，超出预期 0.13 美元。收入为 12.2 亿美元，比上年增长 1.2 亿美元，同比增长 8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序的流量强劲，平均每月用户数量为 2.21 亿（同比增长 15%），第一季度访问量为 25 亿次（同比增长 19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>Q1 最有趣的细分市场是 iHome（或 ZG 评级“Zillow 提供的”），因为它约占收入的 57%，并且是 Zillow 指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow 第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）仅为平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome 业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向 iHome 几乎削弱了公司的主要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着 Zillow 的广告收入将面临更大的压力，而广告收入通常来自其 iHome 部门现在正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率仅为 4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前进</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow 第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导总额调整后 EBITDA（1.28 亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>会大幅下降</b>第一季度交付的调整后 EBITDA 总额为 1.81 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在 SEC 10-Q 文件中找到）为 259,346,000 股（同比增长高达 23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股份数量将继续增长至约 2.655 亿股（基于上述指引）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后 EBITDA 下降，完全稀释股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近进行了调整（请注意，自我 3 月份发表 Seeking Alpha 文章以来，该股已下跌约 30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7x。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>就 Zillow 的增长前景（或非增长）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较……）考虑到第二季度指引疲软。此外，我不清楚什么催化剂将是改善该公司未来极低的利润率。尤其是考虑到<b>Zillow 计划今年增聘 2,000 名员工</b>，使其员工人数增加了约40%。在我看来，当谈到提高利润率时，员工人数的增长将是一个重大的阻力。也就是说，Zillow 在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向 iHome 也意味着 ZG 现在面临着更多的宏观风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买 Zillow Group 的风险是一个近乎完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于 ZG 的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价是完美的，而且自那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了 30%，现在我将简单地给 ZG 一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>商品消息是，Zillow 的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成 5.51 亿美元的股票发行后，该季度末拥有 47 亿美元现金（高于 2020 年底的 39 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为 22.59 亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末2.655亿股稀释后的流通股，该公司的净现金估计为每股9.19美元。Zillow 可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接接触房地产市场而导致的较高风险状况。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可以瞬息万变，并可能抓住ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结与结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Zillow 的第一季度报告无疑在连续基础上有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其已证明的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎完全不正常。尽管房地产市场火爆且高度升值，但第二季度调整后 EBITDA 环比下降……嗯，我就是看不懂现在的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对它感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以 ZG 的五年价格图表作为结尾，并指出我的 50 美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来发布的每股收益报告并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前的110美元水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120164826","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.\nHowever, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.\nThat is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.\nYet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe Zillow Group (ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.\nInvestment Rationale\nLike many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.\nIndeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:\nSource:Statista\nBut of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:\nSource:SimilarWeb.com\nWhen it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.\nHowever, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.\nQ1 Earnings\nZillow released its Q1 EPS report on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).\nThe most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.\nHowever, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:\nSource: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report\nAs can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?\nGoing Forward\nThe chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:\nSource: Zillow's Q1 EPS report\nAt the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that will be down considerably from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.\nIn addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).\nValuation\nSo we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.\nYet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March Zillow: Take Profits), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.\nThat is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.\nMeantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.\nRisks\nThe risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.\nThe goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.\nThat compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.\nSummary & Conclusion\nWhile Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.\nI will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.\nData byYCharts","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"Z":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112231370,"gmtCreate":1622872271990,"gmtModify":1634097151696,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Of coz it’s a matter of time...RS&nbsp;can also make the share price more than 100","listText":"Of coz it’s a matter of time...RS&nbsp;can also make the share price more than 100","text":"Of coz it’s a matter of time...RS can also make the share price more than 100","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112231370","repostId":"1148130971","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li>  <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li>  <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来汽车的股价在过去一年中飙升了 816% 以上，在 3 月初成长型股票抛售之前，于 2 月初达到近 62 美元的峰值。</li><li>公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪不断增长，预计将提升公司估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来汽车的股价到 2025 年将飙升至 160 美元以上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images 新闻来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来，它已经在电动汽车领域的狂热投资者中获得了极大的国际关注。自蔚来在 2018 年年中首次交付以来，只有短短三年时间，但许多人已经在猜测其股价能否达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的交易价格超过每股 600 美元，市值超过 6000 亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来在 2025 年之前有潜力突破每股 100 美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近 60 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，该公司的上涨潜力超过 35%。</blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今已在华销售和交付超过10万辆汽车。该公司拥有五款零排放、全电池供电的车型，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸 SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将其全球扩张计划变为现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到 100 美元不再是 “是否 ”的问题，而是 “何时 ”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>创新技术的开拓者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>Source:ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池更换技术 “Power Swap ”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车通常行驶里程有限的问题。类似于加油站，Power Swap是一种电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池可使蔚来汽车行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车181英里平均行驶里程的两倍多。蔚来车主可选择订阅「电池即服务」（「BaaS」）套餐，这是一项按月订阅服务，可根据个人需求为蔚来车主提供灵活的电池升级选择。该公司目前提供标准的 75 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 310 英里；以及增强型 100 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 435 英里；在BaaS下，两者都可供蔚来所有者按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个换电站，随着蔚来和中石化最近签署战略合作伙伴协议，更多的换电站正在建设中。蔚来的汽车还兼容本地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国 164 个城市的 1140 个汽车充电站，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.</p><p><blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以便在更广泛的电动汽车和科技领域保持竞争力。蔚来自2016年以来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，2018年在北京公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对客运未来的承诺也体现在他们开发的 EVE 上，这是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的 NOMI AI（全球首个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步推进其在自动驾驶技术方面的进展，蔚来最近与英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司 Mobileye 合作，开发不需要人工交互的驾驶自动化（即 “4 级 ”自动驾驶）并将其商业化。他们的合作有望加速蔚来推出 “自动驾驶即服务 ”（ADaaS）套餐，该套餐是其自动驾驶技术 “蔚来自动驾驶 ”（NAD）的月度订阅。然而，与特斯拉的 “全自动驾驶 ”套件类似，预计将于 2022 年推出的 NAD 技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实将蔚来推向了与行业领导者特斯拉不相上下的位置。蔚来用户可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。目前上路的蔚来汽车超过 102,000 辆，新的订阅套餐预计将带来 8.4 亿元人民币（1.32 亿美元）的增量年销售额；假设大多数现有蔚来车主都注册了这项服务，那么在这项服务推出时，额外的收入来源估计约为 100 亿元人民币（16 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的持续发展有望在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求量最大的细分市场之一，估计价值达1.6万亿美元。如果占据该市场 6% 的份额，蔚来现有 670 亿美元的市值将至少增加 1000 亿美元，使其每股价值超过 100 美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的纯电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占领上述6%以上的市场份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股价格超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将达到约 300,000 辆，总收入将达到约 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\"><span>Source: ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破 100 美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直透露其全球扩张的意图，尤其是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设其首个海外销售和服务中心。2022 年，该品牌在挪威的足迹将进一步扩大，蔚来将在卑尔根、斯塔万格、特隆赫姆和克里斯蒂安桑开设四家门店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将为欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为蔚来的新车主提供该品牌赖以取得成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰 SUV ES8 目前的起售价约为 6.7 万美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，随后该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车 ET7 将于 2022 年推出。</blockquote></p><p> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在中国豪华电动汽车市场拥有良好的销售记录，其规格可与全球知名的特斯拉相媲美，因此没有理由不在海外取得成功。如前所述，蔚来车辆充满电后的续航里程可达 435 英里，对于那些正在寻找可靠伴侣陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行的欧美潜在车主来说，这是一个理想的选择。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的偏好相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车日益增长的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO’s Historical Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的历史表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.</p><p><blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销售仍在继续，但由于流动性问题，蔚来的股价还是创下了不到 2 美元的历史新低。2020 年年中，中国合肥市政府出手相救，注资 70 亿元人民币（约合 10 亿美元）。该安排导致“蔚来中国”成立，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来中国 90.36% 的股权，“合肥战略投资者”财团持有剩余 9.64% 的股权。这种合作关系成为公司的生命线；额外的资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显著改善，这反映在公司强劲的财务业绩和 2020 年夏季股价的上升趋势上。到 2020 年第二季度末，蔚来的股价平均反弹了近 20%，总收入环比增长了 171%。该公司股价在 2020 年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均达到 15.40 美元，并继续攀升至第四季度的平均水平 38.70 美元。截至 2021 年 3 月 31 日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为 50.97 美元，2 月份达到近 62 美元的峰值，是其 2018 年 IPO 价格的 10 倍多。如今，该公司的市值超过 670 亿美元，超过了在纽约证券交易所首次亮相时的 10 亿美元市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.</p><p><blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在 2 月底成长型股票抛售之前达到顶峰以来，蔚来的基本面也一直在稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级加速，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，占2020年总交付量的近50%。该公司继续展现出光明的前景，4 月份交付了超过 7,100 辆汽车，同比增长超过 125%。蔚来在2021年第一季度还保持了经营活动的正现金流，这得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，使其毛利率提高到19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者相当第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将接近 300,000 辆，相当于总收入约为 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）（每股 18.60 美元）。近期与合营企业「江淮汽车集团」（「江淮汽车集团」）重续的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的整车销售预测，该协议将目前的年产能由100,000辆增加至240,000辆；目前正在合肥兴建的「NeoPark」预计年产能将增加100万台，进一步支持我们对蔚来继续致力于发展业务的积极前景。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为 16.43 倍，年收入约为 420 亿美元（第一季度收入年化为 103.89 亿美元），同样的比例应用于蔚来预测的 2025 财年总收入，预计市盈率将达到 8.7 倍，股价将超过 160 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO vs. LI and XPEV</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来与李和 XPEV</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Finviz</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Finviz</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与国内同行进行了比较，以确定蔚来股价超过 100 美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于李和XPEV，前者的交易倍数应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到 18.1 倍（XPEV 的中点），也将推动该公司目前的股价升至 51.50 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，这意味着 22% 的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来 2025 财年收入的预测为 1400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元），即每股 18.60 美元，即使是 18.1 倍的一半也足以让蔚来的股价在 2025 年突破 160 美元；我们相信，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为运营现金和届时实现的技术进步将使他们在电动汽车行业走上持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到 2030 年及以后品牌的 4 级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前一篇关于蔚来的文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB检查要求；否则，上述公司审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前正在接受普华永道中天会计师事务所（PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP）的审计，该事务所已被列入 PCAOB 的拒绝准入名单。如果中国当局和 PCAOB 不能尽快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会对投资者起到威慑作用，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是全球芯片供应持续短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的各项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距正在扩大。蔚来也不例外，受到持续芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，正如他们逐月增加的交付数量所证明的那样；在蔚来最新发布的 4 月份交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了 7100 多辆汽车，同比增长 125%。</blockquote></p><p> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，电动汽车领域的竞争也愈演愈烈。由于对气候变化的担忧日益加剧，加上传统汽油动力汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度在过去十年中发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的准入门槛也显着降低；新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，因为初始投资变得比 2003 年特斯拉更加合理，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并在汽车行业保持竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期取得成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（在此进一步分析）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌形象，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合他们在生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略方面的成熟能力，蔚来正在有效地缩小他们与特斯拉在全球范围内电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是这家电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，而蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价上，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，它们是一个值得选择的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 12:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li>  <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li>  <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来汽车的股价在过去一年中飙升了 816% 以上，在 3 月初成长型股票抛售之前，于 2 月初达到近 62 美元的峰值。</li><li>公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪不断增长，预计将提升公司估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来汽车的股价到 2025 年将飙升至 160 美元以上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images 新闻来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来，它已经在电动汽车领域的狂热投资者中获得了极大的国际关注。自蔚来在 2018 年年中首次交付以来，只有短短三年时间，但许多人已经在猜测其股价能否达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的交易价格超过每股 600 美元，市值超过 6000 亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来在 2025 年之前有潜力突破每股 100 美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近 60 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，该公司的上涨潜力超过 35%。</blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今已在华销售和交付超过10万辆汽车。该公司拥有五款零排放、全电池供电的车型，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸 SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将其全球扩张计划变为现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到 100 美元不再是 “是否 ”的问题，而是 “何时 ”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>创新技术的开拓者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>Source:ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池更换技术 “Power Swap ”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车通常行驶里程有限的问题。类似于加油站，Power Swap是一种电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池可使蔚来汽车行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车181英里平均行驶里程的两倍多。蔚来车主可选择订阅「电池即服务」（「BaaS」）套餐，这是一项按月订阅服务，可根据个人需求为蔚来车主提供灵活的电池升级选择。该公司目前提供标准的 75 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 310 英里；以及增强型 100 kWh 电池，充满电后可行驶 435 英里；在BaaS下，两者都可供蔚来所有者按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个换电站，随着蔚来和中石化最近签署战略合作伙伴协议，更多的换电站正在建设中。蔚来的汽车还兼容本地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国 164 个城市的 1140 个汽车充电站，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.</p><p><blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以便在更广泛的电动汽车和科技领域保持竞争力。蔚来自2016年以来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，2018年在北京公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对客运未来的承诺也体现在他们开发的 EVE 上，这是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的 NOMI AI（全球首个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步推进其在自动驾驶技术方面的进展，蔚来最近与英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司 Mobileye 合作，开发不需要人工交互的驾驶自动化（即 “4 级 ”自动驾驶）并将其商业化。他们的合作有望加速蔚来推出 “自动驾驶即服务 ”（ADaaS）套餐，该套餐是其自动驾驶技术 “蔚来自动驾驶 ”（NAD）的月度订阅。然而，与特斯拉的 “全自动驾驶 ”套件类似，预计将于 2022 年推出的 NAD 技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实将蔚来推向了与行业领导者特斯拉不相上下的位置。蔚来用户可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。目前上路的蔚来汽车超过 102,000 辆，新的订阅套餐预计将带来 8.4 亿元人民币（1.32 亿美元）的增量年销售额；假设大多数现有蔚来车主都注册了这项服务，那么在这项服务推出时，额外的收入来源估计约为 100 亿元人民币（16 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的持续发展有望在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求量最大的细分市场之一，估计价值达1.6万亿美元。如果占据该市场 6% 的份额，蔚来现有 670 亿美元的市值将至少增加 1000 亿美元，使其每股价值超过 100 美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的纯电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占领上述6%以上的市场份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股价格超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将达到约 300,000 辆，总收入将达到约 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Global Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\"><span>Source: ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破 100 美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直透露其全球扩张的意图，尤其是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设其首个海外销售和服务中心。2022 年，该品牌在挪威的足迹将进一步扩大，蔚来将在卑尔根、斯塔万格、特隆赫姆和克里斯蒂安桑开设四家门店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将为欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为蔚来的新车主提供该品牌赖以取得成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰 SUV ES8 目前的起售价约为 6.7 万美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，随后该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车 ET7 将于 2022 年推出。</blockquote></p><p> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在中国豪华电动汽车市场拥有良好的销售记录，其规格可与全球知名的特斯拉相媲美，因此没有理由不在海外取得成功。如前所述，蔚来车辆充满电后的续航里程可达 435 英里，对于那些正在寻找可靠伴侣陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行的欧美潜在车主来说，这是一个理想的选择。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的偏好相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车日益增长的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO’s Historical Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的历史表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.</p><p><blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销售仍在继续，但由于流动性问题，蔚来的股价还是创下了不到 2 美元的历史新低。2020 年年中，中国合肥市政府出手相救，注资 70 亿元人民币（约合 10 亿美元）。该安排导致“蔚来中国”成立，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来中国 90.36% 的股权，“合肥战略投资者”财团持有剩余 9.64% 的股权。这种合作关系成为公司的生命线；额外的资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显著改善，这反映在公司强劲的财务业绩和 2020 年夏季股价的上升趋势上。到 2020 年第二季度末，蔚来的股价平均反弹了近 20%，总收入环比增长了 171%。该公司股价在 2020 年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均达到 15.40 美元，并继续攀升至第四季度的平均水平 38.70 美元。截至 2021 年 3 月 31 日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为 50.97 美元，2 月份达到近 62 美元的峰值，是其 2018 年 IPO 价格的 10 倍多。如今，该公司的市值超过 670 亿美元，超过了在纽约证券交易所首次亮相时的 10 亿美元市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.</p><p><blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在 2 月底成长型股票抛售之前达到顶峰以来，蔚来的基本面也一直在稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级加速，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，占2020年总交付量的近50%。该公司继续展现出光明的前景，4 月份交付了超过 7,100 辆汽车，同比增长超过 125%。蔚来在2021年第一季度还保持了经营活动的正现金流，这得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，使其毛利率提高到19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者相当第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到 2025 财年汽车销量将接近 300,000 辆，相当于总收入约为 1,400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元）（每股 18.60 美元）。近期与合营企业「江淮汽车集团」（「江淮汽车集团」）重续的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的整车销售预测，该协议将目前的年产能由100,000辆增加至240,000辆；目前正在合肥兴建的「NeoPark」预计年产能将增加100万台，进一步支持我们对蔚来继续致力于发展业务的积极前景。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为 16.43 倍，年收入约为 420 亿美元（第一季度收入年化为 103.89 亿美元），同样的比例应用于蔚来预测的 2025 财年总收入，预计市盈率将达到 8.7 倍，股价将超过 160 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO vs. LI and XPEV</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来与李和 XPEV</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Finviz</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Finviz</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与国内同行进行了比较，以确定蔚来股价超过 100 美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于李和XPEV，前者的交易倍数应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到 18.1 倍（XPEV 的中点），也将推动该公司目前的股价升至 51.50 美元，根据最新交易股价 42.34 美元（6 月 1 日）计算，这意味着 22% 的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来 2025 财年收入的预测为 1400 亿元人民币（220 亿美元），即每股 18.60 美元，即使是 18.1 倍的一半也足以让蔚来的股价在 2025 年突破 160 美元；我们相信，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为运营现金和届时实现的技术进步将使他们在电动汽车行业走上持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到 2030 年及以后品牌的 4 级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前一篇关于蔚来的文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB检查要求；否则，上述公司审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前正在接受普华永道中天会计师事务所（PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP）的审计，该事务所已被列入 PCAOB 的拒绝准入名单。如果中国当局和 PCAOB 不能尽快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会对投资者起到威慑作用，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是全球芯片供应持续短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的各项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距正在扩大。蔚来也不例外，受到持续芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，正如他们逐月增加的交付数量所证明的那样；在蔚来最新发布的 4 月份交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了 7100 多辆汽车，同比增长 125%。</blockquote></p><p> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，电动汽车领域的竞争也愈演愈烈。由于对气候变化的担忧日益加剧，加上传统汽油动力汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度在过去十年中发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的准入门槛也显着降低；新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，因为初始投资变得比 2003 年特斯拉更加合理，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并在汽车行业保持竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期取得成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（在此进一步分析）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌形象，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合他们在生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略方面的成熟能力，蔚来正在有效地缩小他们与特斯拉在全球范围内电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是这家电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，而蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价上，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，它们是一个值得选择的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118767342,"gmtCreate":1622762850186,"gmtModify":1634098358406,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"TSMC is big brother now&nbsp;","listText":"TSMC is big brother now&nbsp;","text":"TSMC is big brother now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118767342","repostId":"1160565063","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160565063","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622729043,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1160565063?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-03 22:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"TSMC: Expanding Its Foundry Market Leadership<blockquote>台积电：扩大代工市场领导地位</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160565063","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTSMC’s growth by end market is expected to be strong across the board this year especially ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>TSMC’s growth by end market is expected to be strong across the board this year especially in HPC and automotive markets due to the resumption in auto production and structural.</li>  <li>It's undergoing aggressive capacity expansion plans after raising capex by over 60% and committing $100 bln over the next 3 years.</li>  <li>The company continues to lead with a solid technological advantage as it ramps up its 5nm production followed by 4nm and 3nm scheduled for mass production next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c699eaada1188876056b2745946a9b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于汽车生产和结构性生产的恢复，台积电今年在终端市场的增长预计将全面强劲，尤其是在高性能计算和汽车市场。</li><li>在将资本支出提高 60% 以上并承诺在未来 3 年内投资 1000 亿美元后，该公司正在实施积极的产能扩张计划。</li><li>该公司继续以坚实的技术优势领先，提高了 5nm 产量，随后计划于明年量产 4nm 和 3nm。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock Editories，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) is a pioneer of the pure-play foundry business model with an exclusive focus on manufacturing customers’ products. Backed by a robust demand environment and technological leadership with advanced nodes, TSMC’s market share increased to 56% in 2020 from 53% in the previous year. The company is anticipated to register another strong year of growth as strong demand rollover providing a tailwind and the structural drivers leading to an increase in the underlying semiconductor demand for HPC, IoT, 5G and automotive fueling strong demand from the multi-year megatrends.</p><p><blockquote>台积电公司（TSM）是纯代工商业模式的先驱，专注于制造客户的产品。在强劲的需求环境和先进节点的技术领先地位的支持下，台积电的市场份额从上一年的 53% 增加到 2020 年的 56%。预计该公司将实现又一个强劲增长的一年，因为强劲的需求翻转提供了推动力，结构性驱动因素导致 HPC、物联网、5G 和汽车的基础半导体需求增加，推动了多年大趋势的强劲需求。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC’s leadership position revolves around its competitive strengths from the scale as the largest pure-play foundry by capacity. The company is scaling up even further by committing an aggressive expansion plan increasing capex potentially up to 63% in 2020 and $100 bln over the next three years. Furthermore, as a technology leader, the company is continuously developing more advanced process technologies to maintain its lead. Its process technology roadmap indicates that it well-positioned to solidify this lead by targeting 3nm and 4nm nodes for mass production next year followed by 2nm further down the line.</p><p><blockquote>台积电的领先地位围绕着其作为产能最大的纯晶圆代工厂的规模竞争优势。该公司正在通过实施积极的扩张计划来进一步扩大规模，该计划可能在 2020 年将资本支出增加 63%，并在未来三年内增加 1000 亿美元。此外，作为技术领导者，本公司不断开发更先进的工艺技术，以保持领先地位。其工艺技术路线图表明，它有能力巩固这一领先地位，目标是明年量产的 3nm 和 4nm 节点，随后进一步量产 2nm。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2a9da08d637f44171858f9f7587f0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: TSMC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：台积电</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Strong End Market Growth Across the Board Especially in HPC and Automotive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终端市场全面强劲增长，尤其是在高性能计算和汽车领域</b></blockquote></p><p> TSMC’s impressive growth in 2020 was particularly strong across the HPC, IoT and smartphone end markets registering the highest growth rate among all end markets as depicted in the chart below. This is significant as these three end markets make up the largest segments by revenues with a combined contribution of 89%.</p><p><blockquote>台积电在 2020 年令人印象深刻的增长在高性能计算、物联网和智能手机终端市场尤为强劲，在所有终端市场中增长率最高，如下图所示。这一点意义重大，因为这三个终端市场构成了收入最大的细分市场，合计贡献达 89%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23cabf4b82975da57c73ceec6d99ae4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: TSMC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：台积电</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Although the smartphone platform is the largest segment, the end market which exhibited the highest growth was the HPC platform. Fueled by the work and study from home shift as well as rapid 5G deployment, HPC saw unit shipments grew by 11% which includes chips for PCs, tablets, game consoles, servers, and base stations. Looking ahead, management expects the robust demand to roll over into 2021 as structural factors spur demand for products at the leading edge including CPU, GPU, networking, FPGA, AI-accelerated video gaming, etc. For example, the proliferation of AI and machine learning applications across a broad range of industries with continuous R&amp;D from tech giants spurring demand for accelerators to handle inferencing and training workloads leading to a&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;of 42.2% to 2027 for the AI market. Additionally, the ongoing cloud migration by enterprises and scaling of data centers by leading cloud service provider fueling the cloud computing market with a&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;of 17.5%. Other drivers include 5G deployment as well as next-generation gaming all requiring higher performance and power-efficient chips. All of these factors support the long-term growth of the HPC platform which TSMC&nbsp;believes&nbsp;can overtake the smartphone platform to become the most significant end market in the future.</p><p><blockquote>虽然智能手机平台是最大的细分市场，但增长最快的终端市场是高性能计算平台。在居家工作和学习以及5G快速部署的推动下，HPC的单位出货量增长了11%，其中包括个人电脑、平板电脑、游戏机、服务器和基站的芯片。展望未来，管理层预计强劲需求将延续到2021年，因为结构性因素刺激了对CPU、GPU、网络、FPGA、人工智能加速视频游戏等前沿产品的需求。例如，人工智能和机器学习应用在广泛行业的激增，科技巨头的持续研发刺激了对加速器的需求，以处理推理和训练工作负载，导致人工智能市场到2027年的CAGR达到42.2%。此外，企业持续的云迁移和领先云服务提供商对数据中心的扩展推动了云计算市场的复合年增长率为17.5%。其他驱动因素包括5G部署以及下一代游戏，所有这些都需要更高的性能和能效芯片。所有这些因素都支持高性能计算平台的长期成长，台积电相信高性能计算平台有望超越智能手机平台，成为未来最重要的终端市场。</blockquote></p><p> Besides HPC, the ongoing automotive chip shortage is another platform in which the company expects stronger growth this year. In 2020, the segment contracted in line with the decline in global vehicle sales by 14% as consumer confidence weakened and auto manufacturers halted production. As production resumes with car sales expected to rebound in the low teens, we expect the segment to grow in line with the industry recovery. Additionally, rising semiconductor content driven by EV which could see&nbsp;nearly10 times greater content per vehicle than a conventional combustion vehicle and ADAS fueling demand for sensors, analog and power ICs is a structural driver for TSMC.</p><p><blockquote>除了高性能计算之外，持续的汽车芯片短缺是该公司预计今年增长更强劲的另一个平台。2020年，由于消费者信心减弱和汽车制造商停产，该细分市场收缩，与全球汽车销量下降14%一致。随着生产恢复，汽车销量预计将在十几岁左右反弹，我们预计该细分市场将随着行业复苏而增长。此外，电动汽车推动的半导体含量不断上升，每辆车的含量可能比传统内燃机汽车高出近 10 倍，并且 ADAS 推动了传感器、模拟和电源 IC 的需求，是台积电的结构性驱动因素。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, even more impressive about TSMC’s 2020 growth is the fact that the company lost a key contribution from the embargoed Huawei’s HiSilicon (12.8% of revenues) but still managed to register strong smartphone platform growth. Despite the modest global unit shipments decline of 9%, the growth in the platform is driven by 5G adoption, improved performance, longer battery life and increasing complexity of features such as biosensors and more AI features. These long-term factors support the company’s outlook for high single-digit growth in 2021 and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>此外，台积电在 2020 年的增长更令人印象深刻的是，该公司失去了被禁运的华为海思的关键贡献（占收入的 12.8%），但仍实现了强劲的智能手机平台增长。尽管全球单位出货量略有下降 9%，但该平台的增长是由 5G 采用、性能改进、电池寿命延长以及生物传感器和更多人工智能功能等功能复杂性增加推动的。这些长期因素支持了公司在 2021 年及以后实现个位数高增长的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45123609324056b25e0de8e36bf86f46\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source:Toms Hardware, The Information Network</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Toms Hardware、信息网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Aggressive Capacity Expansion Plans and Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>积极的产能扩张计划和投资</b></blockquote></p><p> In terms of capacity expansion, TSMC has upped its game in 2021 by increasing its capex by potentially 63% more than last year to $28 bln. The company has announced that around 80% of the budgeted capex will be allocated to expand capacity for the advanced process technologies below 7nm with the remainder for advanced packaging and specialty technologies. Additionally, it is also committing $100 bln over the next 3 years to increase capacity and support R&amp;D towards advanced processes.</p><p><blockquote>在产能扩张方面，台积电在 2021 年提升了竞争力，资本支出可能比去年增加 63%，达到 280 亿美元。该公司宣布，预算资本支出的约 80% 将用于扩大 7 纳米以下先进工艺技术的产能，其余部分用于先进封装和特种技术。此外，它还承诺在未来 3 年内投入 1000 亿美元来提高产能并支持先进工艺的研发。</blockquote></p><p> Previously, TSMC also&nbsp;announced&nbsp;its plan to expand in the US with a $12 bln fab in Arizona capable of producing 5nm chips. The 12-inch fab in Phoenix is relatively modest with a planned output of 20,000 with volume production only expected in 2024. Though, it has also been reported that TSMC might further increase the capacity and equipment capabilities which is a strong possibility with the robust demand environment and the company has also indicated that the location allows it to expand capacity if desired.</p><p><blockquote>此前，台积电还宣布计划在美国亚利桑那州建造一座耗资 120 亿美元的工厂，能够生产 5 纳米芯片。凤凰城的 12 英寸工厂规模相对较小，计划产量为 20,000 台，预计要到 2024 年才能量产。不过，也有报道称，台积电可能会进一步提高产能和设备能力，在强劲的需求环境下，这是一种很大的可能性，该公司还表示，如果需要，该位置允许其扩大产能。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/326c261509a8f27ac5d2dfd0cd823458\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"618\"><span>Source:EENewsEurope,Techspot</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：EENewsEurope、Techspot</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In comparison with other larger spenders Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)and Samsung, TSMC’s planned investment commitment of $100 bln for foundry expansion is the most significant. In March, Intel announced it's planned a $20 bln initialinvestmentin Arizona for the construction of two fabs to directly compete with TSMC but a lot more is needed to stand a chance at challenging TSMC’s dominance. On the other hand, Samsung’s plannedinvestmentsof $116 bln are larger but spread across a longer period of 10 years compared to just 3 for TSMC.</p><p><blockquote>与其他较大的支出商英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）和三星相比，台积电计划用于代工厂扩建的 1000 亿美元投资承诺最为重要。今年 3 月，英特尔宣布计划在亚利桑那州初期投资 200 亿美元，建设两座晶圆厂，与台积电直接竞争，但要挑战台积电的主导地位，还需要更多投资。另一方面，三星计划投资 1160 亿美元，规模更大，但投资期限更长，为 10 年，而台积电仅为 3 年。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody></tbody> </table> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a96afbf56db7d1f4ecaf334f01866dc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source:Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody></tbody></table><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>TSMC’s Superior Process Technology and Roadmap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>台积电卓越制程技术与路线图</b></blockquote></p><p> Backed by its strong investment commitment, TSMC is able to reap the benefits from its strength as a technological leader in semiconductor manufacturing. Shrinking the size of transistors is becoming more challenging with prohibitive costs but a key feature for increasing chip density allowing continued performance improvements and energy efficiency. Chips at the leading edge nodes (below 10nm) are critical to achieve this and its share of demand would only grow larger to support advanced technologies accounting for nearly one third of capacity in 3 years.</p><p><blockquote>凭借强大的投资承诺，台积电能够从其作为半导体制造技术领导者的实力中获益。缩小晶体管的尺寸正变得更具挑战性，成本高昂，但这是增加芯片密度的关键特征，可以持续改进性能和提高能效。前沿节点（10纳米以下）的芯片对于实现这一目标至关重要，其需求份额只会越来越大，以支持3年内占产能近三分之一的先进技术。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e784ad457fc66c73ca376c7af1981e\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"427\"><span>Source:IC Insights</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IC Insights</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This is where TSMC shines with its leadership owing to its focus on continuously developing more advanced process technologies. While the company only accounts for 40% to 65% of revenues for the less sophisticated 28-65nm chips, it dominates the market for most advanced nodes with making up 90% of chips below 10nm. We expect it to maintain its leadership at the advanced nodes as other pureplay competitors struggle with developing their processes.</p><p><blockquote>台积电专注于持续开发更先进的制程技术，因此在此展现其领导地位。虽然该公司仅占不太复杂的28-65纳米芯片收入的40%至65%，但它在大多数先进节点的市场中占据主导地位，占10纳米以下芯片的90%。当其他 pureplay 竞争对手努力开发其流程时，我们预计它将保持其在高级节点的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab154a4af28b364c0c3dc9e281683ecd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\"><span>Source:Financial Times</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：英国《金融时报》</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of the TSMC’s technology roadmap, the company’s 5nm process is already in the second year of volume production and continues to be ramped up with strong demand from smartphone and HPC applications. Following 5nm, the company is moving to 4nm and targeting volume production by next year. Also, the company has scheduled the 3nm for volume production in the second half of 2022. Based on a FinFET transistor structure, it is believed that its 3nm can provide 70% logic density gain, boosting performance up to 15% and cutting power consumption by 30%. The transistor size in a 3nm node is just 1/20,000th of a human hair. At the same time, the company is developing its GAAFET-based 2nm node with production expected in its Taiwanese fabs across Hsinchu and Baoshan.</p><p><blockquote>就台积电的技术路线图而言，该公司的 5 纳米工艺已经进入量产的第二年，随着智能手机和高性能计算应用的强劲需求，该工艺将继续得到提升。继 5nm 之后，该公司正在向 4nm 迈进，目标是明年实现量产。此外，该公司已计划于 2022 年下半年批量生产 3nm。基于FinFET晶体管结构，相信其3nm可以提供70%的逻辑密度增益，将性能提升高达15%，并将功耗削减30%。3纳米节点的晶体管尺寸仅为人类头发的1/20,000。与此同时，该公司正在开发基于 GAAFET 的 2nm 节点，预计将在其位于新竹和宝山的台湾工厂进行生产。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Compared to leading competitors, Samsung’s roadmap is also quite similar to TSMC as it plans to mass produce 3nm chips in 2022 with 2nm possibly also indevelopmentwith IBM(NYSE:IBM)but produced by Samsung. More recently, TSMC has announced a breakthrough in thedevelopmentof 1nm. Whereas for Intel, its Arizona fab is only indicated to produce 7nm technologies but only when it is completed in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>与主要竞争对手相比，三星的路线图也与台积电非常相似，因为它计划在 2022 年量产 3 纳米芯片，2 纳米芯片也可能与 IBM（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IBM）合作开发，但由三星生产。最近，台积电宣布在1nm开发方面取得突破。而对于英特尔来说，其亚利桑那州工厂仅表示将生产 7 纳米技术，但前提是该工厂将于 2024 年完工。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cce4edae659b7c5424284f348286586\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>Source:IC Insights</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IC Insights</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, TSMC’s investment plans allow it to derive a distinct advantage owing to its focus on advanced nodes despite the hefty costs. Among pure-play foundries, the company has the highest return on capital employed at 27.3% versus the industry average of 13.8%.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，台积电的投资计划使其在成本高昂的情况下专注于先进节点，从而获得了明显的优势。在纯粹的代工厂中，该公司的资本回报率最高，为 27.3%，而行业平均水平为 13.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Return on Capital Employed</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>所用资本回报率</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>TSMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>UMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>联华电子</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>11.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SMICOTCQX:SMICY</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>SMICOTCQX：SMICY</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>3.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source:WSJ</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：华尔街日报</i></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, TSMC also benefits from favourable pricing with a rising wafer pricing trend in line with its advanced node migration. As the only pure-play foundry with 7nm and 5nm in 2020, its wafer pricing increased by 6.8% while other pureplay foundries had flattish wafer pricing trends. As TSMC transitions to more advanced nodes, pricing is expected to trend upwards while its competitors’ prices remain relatively flat but couldriseby up around 20% this year due to tight capacity.</p><p><blockquote>此外，台积电还受惠于有利的定价，随着其先进的节点迁移，晶圆定价趋势不断上升。作为2020年唯一拥有7纳米和5纳米制程的pure-play代工厂，其晶圆定价上涨6.8%，而其他pure-play代工厂的晶圆定价趋势持平。随着台积电向更先进的节点过渡，定价预计将呈上升趋势，而其竞争对手的价格将保持相对持平，但由于产能紧张，今年可能会上涨 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d72237f327bae332b07dc3bbd226641a\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"326\"><span>Source:IC Insights</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IC Insights</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Besides advanced nodes, the company’s advantage due to its scale is apparent as evident from its superior profitability compared to rivals. Its gross margins of 53.21% and net margins of 38.86% triumphs UMC and SMIC. However, data for Global Foundries could not be obtained as it is a private company.</p><p><blockquote>除了先进的节点外，与竞争对手相比，该公司的规模优势也显而易见。其53.21%的毛利率和38.86%的净利润率击败了联电和中芯国际。然而，由于它是一家私营公司，因此无法获得全球代工厂的数据。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Revenues ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>收入（十亿美元）</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>毛利率</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Net Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>净利润</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>TSMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$47.95</p><p><blockquote><td>$47.95</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.21%</p><p><blockquote><td>53.21%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>38.86%</p><p><blockquote><td>38.86%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>UMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>联华电子</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$6.3</p><p><blockquote><td>$6.3</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23.88%</p><p><blockquote><td>23.88%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.59%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.59%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SMIC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>中芯国际</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$3.91</p><p><blockquote><td>$3.91</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.83%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.83%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.87%</p><p><blockquote><td>17.87%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Seeking Alpha, Investing.com, Macrotrends</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Seeking Alpha、Investing.com、Macrotrends</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Due to the robust foundry market, TSMC’s revenue grew 33% in 2020 with a 5-year average growth rate of 13.7%. Its average gross margins and net margins are 49.7% and 35% respectively.</p><p><blockquote>由于代工市场强劲，台积电 2020 年收入增长了 33%，5 年平均增长率为 13.7%。其平均毛利率和净利润率分别为49.7%和35%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb481e40dd284b4be697764012599660\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: TSMC, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：台积电、凯文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company has a strong cash flow generation profile with a 5-year average of 21%. However, due to the significant rise in guided capex from 2021 onwards, the company’s margins are expected to dip but recover as it expands aggressively.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有强劲的现金流生成概况，5 年平均为 21%。然而，由于从 2021 年起指导性资本支出大幅上升，该公司的利润率预计将下降，但随着公司积极扩张而恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef99c8c626d03cd5796d38088510e291\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: TSMC, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：台积电、凯文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Owing to its immense scale and technology leadership, the company has managed to solidify its leadership by growing its market share over the past 5 years to 56% in 2020. As the company scales up capacity and advanced nodes 5nm this year, we anticipate further market share gains even beyond 2021.</p><p><blockquote>由于其巨大的规模和技术领先地位，该公司通过在过去五年将其市场份额增长到2020年的56%来巩固其领导地位。随着公司今年扩大产能和先进节点 5nm，我们预计 2021 年以后的市场份额将进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58cebb1fc453c5861aac81712d01607\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The global foundry market is expected to grow at a 11%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;according to estimates from TrendForce. We expect TSMC to outpace this growth rate by gaining market share due to its scale and technological advantages as highlighted above. Overall, we see TSMC growing nearly 15% through 2023 which is in line with management guidance of 10 to 15% CAGR long term.</p><p><blockquote>根据TrendForce的估计，全球代工市场预计将以11%的复合年增长率增长。我们预计台积电将凭借上述规模和技术优势获得市场份额，超过这一增长率。总体而言，我们预计台积电到 2023 年将实现近 15% 的增长，这符合管理层长期 10 至 15% CAGR 的指导。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>TSMC Revenue Projection</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>台积电营收预测</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Foundry Market</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>铸造市场</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>78,921</p><p><blockquote><td>78,921</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>87,602</p><p><blockquote><td>87,602</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97,239</p><p><blockquote><td>97,239</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>107,935</p><p><blockquote><td>107,935</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>TSMC Foundry Revenues</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电代工营收</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>44,205</p><p><blockquote><td>44,205</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>50,809</p><p><blockquote><td>50,809</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>58,343</p><p><blockquote><td>58,343</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66,920</p><p><blockquote><td>66,920</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>TSMC Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电成长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Statista, TrendForce, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、TrendForce、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> The industry average EV/EBITDA of the pure-play foundry market is 10.53x excluding Samsung which is a tech conglomerate.</p><p><blockquote>纯代工市场的行业平均EV/EBITDA为10.53倍，不包括科技集团三星。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>TSMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.64</p><p><blockquote><td>15.64</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>UMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>联华电子</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.89</p><p><blockquote><td>8.89</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SMIC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>中芯国际</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.07</p><p><blockquote><td>7.07</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Average</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>均值</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>10.53</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>10.53</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Seeking Alpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：Seeking Alpha</i></blockquote></p><p> Based on a discount rate of 7.3% (company’s WACC), our model shows an upside of 15.2%.</p><p><blockquote>根据 7.3% 的贴现率（公司的 WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为 15.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cec106cd5858b583064db2d09cd133b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite all the plans by Samsung and Intel, TSMC remains too big to beat as a pure-play foundry leader with growing market share owing to its superior technology process and scale. In 2020, the company saw robust growth across most end market platforms despite the trade embargo on Huawei. Robust demand is expected to roll over into 2021 across all major end markets especially fueled by the resumption of auto production and structural trend of HPC and 5G. To capitalize on the multi-year megatrends, the company has not only stepped up its capex budget for the year potentially up 63% but also a long-term 3-year $100 bln investment commitment to expand capacity for the advanced nodes. This highlights its commitment towards implementing its roadmap for the node migration towards 4nm and 3nm next year followed by 2nm further into the future. These factors cumulatively solidify its market leadership which could lead to further market share gains. Overall, we rate the company as a<i>Buy</i>with a target price of<i>$126.32.</i></p><p><blockquote>尽管三星和英特尔制定了所有计划，但台积电作为纯粹的代工领导者，由于其卓越的工艺流程和规模，市场份额不断增长，仍然太大了，无法被击败。2020年，尽管对华为实施贸易禁运，该公司在大多数终端市场平台上都实现了强劲增长。预计所有主要终端市场的强劲需求将持续到 2021 年，特别是受汽车生产恢复以及 HPC 和 5G 结构性趋势的推动。为了利用多年的大趋势，该公司不仅将今年的资本支出预算提高了 63%，而且还做出了为期 3 年 1000 亿美元的长期投资承诺，以扩大先进节点的容量。这凸显了其致力于实施明年节点向 4nm 和 3nm 迁移的路线图，并在未来进一步向 2nm 迁移。这些因素累积巩固了其市场领导地位，从而可能导致市场份额进一步增长。总体而言，我们将该公司评级为<i>购买</i>目标价为<i>$126.32.</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSMC: Expanding Its Foundry Market Leadership<blockquote>台积电：扩大代工市场领导地位</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSMC: Expanding Its Foundry Market Leadership<blockquote>台积电：扩大代工市场领导地位</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-03 22:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>TSMC’s growth by end market is expected to be strong across the board this year especially in HPC and automotive markets due to the resumption in auto production and structural.</li>  <li>It's undergoing aggressive capacity expansion plans after raising capex by over 60% and committing $100 bln over the next 3 years.</li>  <li>The company continues to lead with a solid technological advantage as it ramps up its 5nm production followed by 4nm and 3nm scheduled for mass production next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c699eaada1188876056b2745946a9b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于汽车生产和结构性生产的恢复，台积电今年在终端市场的增长预计将全面强劲，尤其是在高性能计算和汽车市场。</li><li>在将资本支出提高 60% 以上并承诺在未来 3 年内投资 1000 亿美元后，该公司正在实施积极的产能扩张计划。</li><li>该公司继续以坚实的技术优势领先，提高了 5nm 产量，随后计划于明年量产 4nm 和 3nm。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock Editories，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) is a pioneer of the pure-play foundry business model with an exclusive focus on manufacturing customers’ products. Backed by a robust demand environment and technological leadership with advanced nodes, TSMC’s market share increased to 56% in 2020 from 53% in the previous year. The company is anticipated to register another strong year of growth as strong demand rollover providing a tailwind and the structural drivers leading to an increase in the underlying semiconductor demand for HPC, IoT, 5G and automotive fueling strong demand from the multi-year megatrends.</p><p><blockquote>台积电公司（TSM）是纯代工商业模式的先驱，专注于制造客户的产品。在强劲的需求环境和先进节点的技术领先地位的支持下，台积电的市场份额从上一年的 53% 增加到 2020 年的 56%。预计该公司将实现又一个强劲增长的一年，因为强劲的需求翻转提供了推动力，结构性驱动因素导致 HPC、物联网、5G 和汽车的基础半导体需求增加，推动了多年大趋势的强劲需求。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC’s leadership position revolves around its competitive strengths from the scale as the largest pure-play foundry by capacity. The company is scaling up even further by committing an aggressive expansion plan increasing capex potentially up to 63% in 2020 and $100 bln over the next three years. Furthermore, as a technology leader, the company is continuously developing more advanced process technologies to maintain its lead. Its process technology roadmap indicates that it well-positioned to solidify this lead by targeting 3nm and 4nm nodes for mass production next year followed by 2nm further down the line.</p><p><blockquote>台积电的领先地位围绕着其作为产能最大的纯晶圆代工厂的规模竞争优势。该公司正在通过实施积极的扩张计划来进一步扩大规模，该计划可能在 2020 年将资本支出增加 63%，并在未来三年内增加 1000 亿美元。此外，作为技术领导者，本公司不断开发更先进的工艺技术，以保持领先地位。其工艺技术路线图表明，它有能力巩固这一领先地位，目标是明年量产的 3nm 和 4nm 节点，随后进一步量产 2nm。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2a9da08d637f44171858f9f7587f0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: TSMC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：台积电</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Strong End Market Growth Across the Board Especially in HPC and Automotive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终端市场全面强劲增长，尤其是在高性能计算和汽车领域</b></blockquote></p><p> TSMC’s impressive growth in 2020 was particularly strong across the HPC, IoT and smartphone end markets registering the highest growth rate among all end markets as depicted in the chart below. This is significant as these three end markets make up the largest segments by revenues with a combined contribution of 89%.</p><p><blockquote>台积电在 2020 年令人印象深刻的增长在高性能计算、物联网和智能手机终端市场尤为强劲，在所有终端市场中增长率最高，如下图所示。这一点意义重大，因为这三个终端市场构成了收入最大的细分市场，合计贡献达 89%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23cabf4b82975da57c73ceec6d99ae4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: TSMC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：台积电</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Although the smartphone platform is the largest segment, the end market which exhibited the highest growth was the HPC platform. Fueled by the work and study from home shift as well as rapid 5G deployment, HPC saw unit shipments grew by 11% which includes chips for PCs, tablets, game consoles, servers, and base stations. Looking ahead, management expects the robust demand to roll over into 2021 as structural factors spur demand for products at the leading edge including CPU, GPU, networking, FPGA, AI-accelerated video gaming, etc. For example, the proliferation of AI and machine learning applications across a broad range of industries with continuous R&amp;D from tech giants spurring demand for accelerators to handle inferencing and training workloads leading to a&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;of 42.2% to 2027 for the AI market. Additionally, the ongoing cloud migration by enterprises and scaling of data centers by leading cloud service provider fueling the cloud computing market with a&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;of 17.5%. Other drivers include 5G deployment as well as next-generation gaming all requiring higher performance and power-efficient chips. All of these factors support the long-term growth of the HPC platform which TSMC&nbsp;believes&nbsp;can overtake the smartphone platform to become the most significant end market in the future.</p><p><blockquote>虽然智能手机平台是最大的细分市场，但增长最快的终端市场是高性能计算平台。在居家工作和学习以及5G快速部署的推动下，HPC的单位出货量增长了11%，其中包括个人电脑、平板电脑、游戏机、服务器和基站的芯片。展望未来，管理层预计强劲需求将延续到2021年，因为结构性因素刺激了对CPU、GPU、网络、FPGA、人工智能加速视频游戏等前沿产品的需求。例如，人工智能和机器学习应用在广泛行业的激增，科技巨头的持续研发刺激了对加速器的需求，以处理推理和训练工作负载，导致人工智能市场到2027年的CAGR达到42.2%。此外，企业持续的云迁移和领先云服务提供商对数据中心的扩展推动了云计算市场的复合年增长率为17.5%。其他驱动因素包括5G部署以及下一代游戏，所有这些都需要更高的性能和能效芯片。所有这些因素都支持高性能计算平台的长期成长，台积电相信高性能计算平台有望超越智能手机平台，成为未来最重要的终端市场。</blockquote></p><p> Besides HPC, the ongoing automotive chip shortage is another platform in which the company expects stronger growth this year. In 2020, the segment contracted in line with the decline in global vehicle sales by 14% as consumer confidence weakened and auto manufacturers halted production. As production resumes with car sales expected to rebound in the low teens, we expect the segment to grow in line with the industry recovery. Additionally, rising semiconductor content driven by EV which could see&nbsp;nearly10 times greater content per vehicle than a conventional combustion vehicle and ADAS fueling demand for sensors, analog and power ICs is a structural driver for TSMC.</p><p><blockquote>除了高性能计算之外，持续的汽车芯片短缺是该公司预计今年增长更强劲的另一个平台。2020年，由于消费者信心减弱和汽车制造商停产，该细分市场收缩，与全球汽车销量下降14%一致。随着生产恢复，汽车销量预计将在十几岁左右反弹，我们预计该细分市场将随着行业复苏而增长。此外，电动汽车推动的半导体含量不断上升，每辆车的含量可能比传统内燃机汽车高出近 10 倍，并且 ADAS 推动了传感器、模拟和电源 IC 的需求，是台积电的结构性驱动因素。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, even more impressive about TSMC’s 2020 growth is the fact that the company lost a key contribution from the embargoed Huawei’s HiSilicon (12.8% of revenues) but still managed to register strong smartphone platform growth. Despite the modest global unit shipments decline of 9%, the growth in the platform is driven by 5G adoption, improved performance, longer battery life and increasing complexity of features such as biosensors and more AI features. These long-term factors support the company’s outlook for high single-digit growth in 2021 and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>此外，台积电在 2020 年的增长更令人印象深刻的是，该公司失去了被禁运的华为海思的关键贡献（占收入的 12.8%），但仍实现了强劲的智能手机平台增长。尽管全球单位出货量略有下降 9%，但该平台的增长是由 5G 采用、性能改进、电池寿命延长以及生物传感器和更多人工智能功能等功能复杂性增加推动的。这些长期因素支持了公司在 2021 年及以后实现个位数高增长的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45123609324056b25e0de8e36bf86f46\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source:Toms Hardware, The Information Network</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Toms Hardware、信息网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Aggressive Capacity Expansion Plans and Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>积极的产能扩张计划和投资</b></blockquote></p><p> In terms of capacity expansion, TSMC has upped its game in 2021 by increasing its capex by potentially 63% more than last year to $28 bln. The company has announced that around 80% of the budgeted capex will be allocated to expand capacity for the advanced process technologies below 7nm with the remainder for advanced packaging and specialty technologies. Additionally, it is also committing $100 bln over the next 3 years to increase capacity and support R&amp;D towards advanced processes.</p><p><blockquote>在产能扩张方面，台积电在 2021 年提升了竞争力，资本支出可能比去年增加 63%，达到 280 亿美元。该公司宣布，预算资本支出的约 80% 将用于扩大 7 纳米以下先进工艺技术的产能，其余部分用于先进封装和特种技术。此外，它还承诺在未来 3 年内投入 1000 亿美元来提高产能并支持先进工艺的研发。</blockquote></p><p> Previously, TSMC also&nbsp;announced&nbsp;its plan to expand in the US with a $12 bln fab in Arizona capable of producing 5nm chips. The 12-inch fab in Phoenix is relatively modest with a planned output of 20,000 with volume production only expected in 2024. Though, it has also been reported that TSMC might further increase the capacity and equipment capabilities which is a strong possibility with the robust demand environment and the company has also indicated that the location allows it to expand capacity if desired.</p><p><blockquote>此前，台积电还宣布计划在美国亚利桑那州建造一座耗资 120 亿美元的工厂，能够生产 5 纳米芯片。凤凰城的 12 英寸工厂规模相对较小，计划产量为 20,000 台，预计要到 2024 年才能量产。不过，也有报道称，台积电可能会进一步提高产能和设备能力，在强劲的需求环境下，这是一种很大的可能性，该公司还表示，如果需要，该位置允许其扩大产能。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/326c261509a8f27ac5d2dfd0cd823458\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"618\"><span>Source:EENewsEurope,Techspot</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：EENewsEurope、Techspot</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In comparison with other larger spenders Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)and Samsung, TSMC’s planned investment commitment of $100 bln for foundry expansion is the most significant. In March, Intel announced it's planned a $20 bln initialinvestmentin Arizona for the construction of two fabs to directly compete with TSMC but a lot more is needed to stand a chance at challenging TSMC’s dominance. On the other hand, Samsung’s plannedinvestmentsof $116 bln are larger but spread across a longer period of 10 years compared to just 3 for TSMC.</p><p><blockquote>与其他较大的支出商英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）和三星相比，台积电计划用于代工厂扩建的 1000 亿美元投资承诺最为重要。今年 3 月，英特尔宣布计划在亚利桑那州初期投资 200 亿美元，建设两座晶圆厂，与台积电直接竞争，但要挑战台积电的主导地位，还需要更多投资。另一方面，三星计划投资 1160 亿美元，规模更大，但投资期限更长，为 10 年，而台积电仅为 3 年。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody></tbody> </table> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a96afbf56db7d1f4ecaf334f01866dc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source:Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody></tbody></table><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>TSMC’s Superior Process Technology and Roadmap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>台积电卓越制程技术与路线图</b></blockquote></p><p> Backed by its strong investment commitment, TSMC is able to reap the benefits from its strength as a technological leader in semiconductor manufacturing. Shrinking the size of transistors is becoming more challenging with prohibitive costs but a key feature for increasing chip density allowing continued performance improvements and energy efficiency. Chips at the leading edge nodes (below 10nm) are critical to achieve this and its share of demand would only grow larger to support advanced technologies accounting for nearly one third of capacity in 3 years.</p><p><blockquote>凭借强大的投资承诺，台积电能够从其作为半导体制造技术领导者的实力中获益。缩小晶体管的尺寸正变得更具挑战性，成本高昂，但这是增加芯片密度的关键特征，可以持续改进性能和提高能效。前沿节点（10纳米以下）的芯片对于实现这一目标至关重要，其需求份额只会越来越大，以支持3年内占产能近三分之一的先进技术。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e784ad457fc66c73ca376c7af1981e\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"427\"><span>Source:IC Insights</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IC Insights</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This is where TSMC shines with its leadership owing to its focus on continuously developing more advanced process technologies. While the company only accounts for 40% to 65% of revenues for the less sophisticated 28-65nm chips, it dominates the market for most advanced nodes with making up 90% of chips below 10nm. We expect it to maintain its leadership at the advanced nodes as other pureplay competitors struggle with developing their processes.</p><p><blockquote>台积电专注于持续开发更先进的制程技术，因此在此展现其领导地位。虽然该公司仅占不太复杂的28-65纳米芯片收入的40%至65%，但它在大多数先进节点的市场中占据主导地位，占10纳米以下芯片的90%。当其他 pureplay 竞争对手努力开发其流程时，我们预计它将保持其在高级节点的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab154a4af28b364c0c3dc9e281683ecd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\"><span>Source:Financial Times</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：英国《金融时报》</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of the TSMC’s technology roadmap, the company’s 5nm process is already in the second year of volume production and continues to be ramped up with strong demand from smartphone and HPC applications. Following 5nm, the company is moving to 4nm and targeting volume production by next year. Also, the company has scheduled the 3nm for volume production in the second half of 2022. Based on a FinFET transistor structure, it is believed that its 3nm can provide 70% logic density gain, boosting performance up to 15% and cutting power consumption by 30%. The transistor size in a 3nm node is just 1/20,000th of a human hair. At the same time, the company is developing its GAAFET-based 2nm node with production expected in its Taiwanese fabs across Hsinchu and Baoshan.</p><p><blockquote>就台积电的技术路线图而言，该公司的 5 纳米工艺已经进入量产的第二年，随着智能手机和高性能计算应用的强劲需求，该工艺将继续得到提升。继 5nm 之后，该公司正在向 4nm 迈进，目标是明年实现量产。此外，该公司已计划于 2022 年下半年批量生产 3nm。基于FinFET晶体管结构，相信其3nm可以提供70%的逻辑密度增益，将性能提升高达15%，并将功耗削减30%。3纳米节点的晶体管尺寸仅为人类头发的1/20,000。与此同时，该公司正在开发基于 GAAFET 的 2nm 节点，预计将在其位于新竹和宝山的台湾工厂进行生产。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Compared to leading competitors, Samsung’s roadmap is also quite similar to TSMC as it plans to mass produce 3nm chips in 2022 with 2nm possibly also indevelopmentwith IBM(NYSE:IBM)but produced by Samsung. More recently, TSMC has announced a breakthrough in thedevelopmentof 1nm. Whereas for Intel, its Arizona fab is only indicated to produce 7nm technologies but only when it is completed in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>与主要竞争对手相比，三星的路线图也与台积电非常相似，因为它计划在 2022 年量产 3 纳米芯片，2 纳米芯片也可能与 IBM（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IBM）合作开发，但由三星生产。最近，台积电宣布在1nm开发方面取得突破。而对于英特尔来说，其亚利桑那州工厂仅表示将生产 7 纳米技术，但前提是该工厂将于 2024 年完工。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cce4edae659b7c5424284f348286586\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>Source:IC Insights</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IC Insights</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, TSMC’s investment plans allow it to derive a distinct advantage owing to its focus on advanced nodes despite the hefty costs. Among pure-play foundries, the company has the highest return on capital employed at 27.3% versus the industry average of 13.8%.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，台积电的投资计划使其在成本高昂的情况下专注于先进节点，从而获得了明显的优势。在纯粹的代工厂中，该公司的资本回报率最高，为 27.3%，而行业平均水平为 13.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Return on Capital Employed</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>所用资本回报率</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>TSMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>UMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>联华电子</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>11.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SMICOTCQX:SMICY</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>SMICOTCQX：SMICY</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>3.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source:WSJ</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：华尔街日报</i></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, TSMC also benefits from favourable pricing with a rising wafer pricing trend in line with its advanced node migration. As the only pure-play foundry with 7nm and 5nm in 2020, its wafer pricing increased by 6.8% while other pureplay foundries had flattish wafer pricing trends. As TSMC transitions to more advanced nodes, pricing is expected to trend upwards while its competitors’ prices remain relatively flat but couldriseby up around 20% this year due to tight capacity.</p><p><blockquote>此外，台积电还受惠于有利的定价，随着其先进的节点迁移，晶圆定价趋势不断上升。作为2020年唯一拥有7纳米和5纳米制程的pure-play代工厂，其晶圆定价上涨6.8%，而其他pure-play代工厂的晶圆定价趋势持平。随着台积电向更先进的节点过渡，定价预计将呈上升趋势，而其竞争对手的价格将保持相对持平，但由于产能紧张，今年可能会上涨 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d72237f327bae332b07dc3bbd226641a\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"326\"><span>Source:IC Insights</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IC Insights</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Besides advanced nodes, the company’s advantage due to its scale is apparent as evident from its superior profitability compared to rivals. Its gross margins of 53.21% and net margins of 38.86% triumphs UMC and SMIC. However, data for Global Foundries could not be obtained as it is a private company.</p><p><blockquote>除了先进的节点外，与竞争对手相比，该公司的规模优势也显而易见。其53.21%的毛利率和38.86%的净利润率击败了联电和中芯国际。然而，由于它是一家私营公司，因此无法获得全球代工厂的数据。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Revenues ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>收入（十亿美元）</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>毛利率</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Net Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>净利润</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>TSMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$47.95</p><p><blockquote><td>$47.95</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.21%</p><p><blockquote><td>53.21%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>38.86%</p><p><blockquote><td>38.86%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>UMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>联华电子</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$6.3</p><p><blockquote><td>$6.3</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23.88%</p><p><blockquote><td>23.88%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.59%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.59%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SMIC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>中芯国际</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$3.91</p><p><blockquote><td>$3.91</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.83%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.83%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.87%</p><p><blockquote><td>17.87%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Seeking Alpha, Investing.com, Macrotrends</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Seeking Alpha、Investing.com、Macrotrends</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Due to the robust foundry market, TSMC’s revenue grew 33% in 2020 with a 5-year average growth rate of 13.7%. Its average gross margins and net margins are 49.7% and 35% respectively.</p><p><blockquote>由于代工市场强劲，台积电 2020 年收入增长了 33%，5 年平均增长率为 13.7%。其平均毛利率和净利润率分别为49.7%和35%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb481e40dd284b4be697764012599660\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: TSMC, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：台积电、凯文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company has a strong cash flow generation profile with a 5-year average of 21%. However, due to the significant rise in guided capex from 2021 onwards, the company’s margins are expected to dip but recover as it expands aggressively.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有强劲的现金流生成概况，5 年平均为 21%。然而，由于从 2021 年起指导性资本支出大幅上升，该公司的利润率预计将下降，但随着公司积极扩张而恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef99c8c626d03cd5796d38088510e291\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: TSMC, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：台积电、凯文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Owing to its immense scale and technology leadership, the company has managed to solidify its leadership by growing its market share over the past 5 years to 56% in 2020. As the company scales up capacity and advanced nodes 5nm this year, we anticipate further market share gains even beyond 2021.</p><p><blockquote>由于其巨大的规模和技术领先地位，该公司通过在过去五年将其市场份额增长到2020年的56%来巩固其领导地位。随着公司今年扩大产能和先进节点 5nm，我们预计 2021 年以后的市场份额将进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58cebb1fc453c5861aac81712d01607\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The global foundry market is expected to grow at a 11%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;according to estimates from TrendForce. We expect TSMC to outpace this growth rate by gaining market share due to its scale and technological advantages as highlighted above. Overall, we see TSMC growing nearly 15% through 2023 which is in line with management guidance of 10 to 15% CAGR long term.</p><p><blockquote>根据TrendForce的估计，全球代工市场预计将以11%的复合年增长率增长。我们预计台积电将凭借上述规模和技术优势获得市场份额，超过这一增长率。总体而言，我们预计台积电到 2023 年将实现近 15% 的增长，这符合管理层长期 10 至 15% CAGR 的指导。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>TSMC Revenue Projection</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>台积电营收预测</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Foundry Market</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>铸造市场</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>78,921</p><p><blockquote><td>78,921</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>87,602</p><p><blockquote><td>87,602</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97,239</p><p><blockquote><td>97,239</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>107,935</p><p><blockquote><td>107,935</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>TSMC Foundry Revenues</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电代工营收</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>44,205</p><p><blockquote><td>44,205</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>50,809</p><p><blockquote><td>50,809</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>58,343</p><p><blockquote><td>58,343</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66,920</p><p><blockquote><td>66,920</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>TSMC Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电成长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Statista, TrendForce, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、TrendForce、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> The industry average EV/EBITDA of the pure-play foundry market is 10.53x excluding Samsung which is a tech conglomerate.</p><p><blockquote>纯代工市场的行业平均EV/EBITDA为10.53倍，不包括科技集团三星。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>TSMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>台积电</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.64</p><p><blockquote><td>15.64</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>UMC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>联华电子</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.89</p><p><blockquote><td>8.89</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SMIC</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>中芯国际</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.07</p><p><blockquote><td>7.07</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Average</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>均值</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>10.53</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>10.53</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Seeking Alpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：Seeking Alpha</i></blockquote></p><p> Based on a discount rate of 7.3% (company’s WACC), our model shows an upside of 15.2%.</p><p><blockquote>根据 7.3% 的贴现率（公司的 WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为 15.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cec106cd5858b583064db2d09cd133b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite all the plans by Samsung and Intel, TSMC remains too big to beat as a pure-play foundry leader with growing market share owing to its superior technology process and scale. In 2020, the company saw robust growth across most end market platforms despite the trade embargo on Huawei. Robust demand is expected to roll over into 2021 across all major end markets especially fueled by the resumption of auto production and structural trend of HPC and 5G. To capitalize on the multi-year megatrends, the company has not only stepped up its capex budget for the year potentially up 63% but also a long-term 3-year $100 bln investment commitment to expand capacity for the advanced nodes. This highlights its commitment towards implementing its roadmap for the node migration towards 4nm and 3nm next year followed by 2nm further into the future. These factors cumulatively solidify its market leadership which could lead to further market share gains. Overall, we rate the company as a<i>Buy</i>with a target price of<i>$126.32.</i></p><p><blockquote>尽管三星和英特尔制定了所有计划，但台积电作为纯粹的代工领导者，由于其卓越的工艺流程和规模，市场份额不断增长，仍然太大了，无法被击败。2020年，尽管对华为实施贸易禁运，该公司在大多数终端市场平台上都实现了强劲增长。预计所有主要终端市场的强劲需求将持续到 2021 年，特别是受汽车生产恢复以及 HPC 和 5G 结构性趋势的推动。为了利用多年的大趋势，该公司不仅将今年的资本支出预算提高了 63%，而且还做出了为期 3 年 1000 亿美元的长期投资承诺，以扩大先进节点的容量。这凸显了其致力于实施明年节点向 4nm 和 3nm 迁移的路线图，并在未来进一步向 2nm 迁移。这些因素累积巩固了其市场领导地位，从而可能导致市场份额进一步增长。总体而言，我们将该公司评级为<i>购买</i>目标价为<i>$126.32.</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432785-tsmc-expanding-foundry-market-leadership\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432785-tsmc-expanding-foundry-market-leadership","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160565063","content_text":"Summary\n\nTSMC’s growth by end market is expected to be strong across the board this year especially in HPC and automotive markets due to the resumption in auto production and structural.\nIt's undergoing aggressive capacity expansion plans after raising capex by over 60% and committing $100 bln over the next 3 years.\nThe company continues to lead with a solid technological advantage as it ramps up its 5nm production followed by 4nm and 3nm scheduled for mass production next year.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) is a pioneer of the pure-play foundry business model with an exclusive focus on manufacturing customers’ products. Backed by a robust demand environment and technological leadership with advanced nodes, TSMC’s market share increased to 56% in 2020 from 53% in the previous year. The company is anticipated to register another strong year of growth as strong demand rollover providing a tailwind and the structural drivers leading to an increase in the underlying semiconductor demand for HPC, IoT, 5G and automotive fueling strong demand from the multi-year megatrends.\nTSMC’s leadership position revolves around its competitive strengths from the scale as the largest pure-play foundry by capacity. The company is scaling up even further by committing an aggressive expansion plan increasing capex potentially up to 63% in 2020 and $100 bln over the next three years. Furthermore, as a technology leader, the company is continuously developing more advanced process technologies to maintain its lead. Its process technology roadmap indicates that it well-positioned to solidify this lead by targeting 3nm and 4nm nodes for mass production next year followed by 2nm further down the line.\nSource: TSMC\nStrong End Market Growth Across the Board Especially in HPC and Automotive\nTSMC’s impressive growth in 2020 was particularly strong across the HPC, IoT and smartphone end markets registering the highest growth rate among all end markets as depicted in the chart below. This is significant as these three end markets make up the largest segments by revenues with a combined contribution of 89%.\nSource: TSMC\nAlthough the smartphone platform is the largest segment, the end market which exhibited the highest growth was the HPC platform. Fueled by the work and study from home shift as well as rapid 5G deployment, HPC saw unit shipments grew by 11% which includes chips for PCs, tablets, game consoles, servers, and base stations. Looking ahead, management expects the robust demand to roll over into 2021 as structural factors spur demand for products at the leading edge including CPU, GPU, networking, FPGA, AI-accelerated video gaming, etc. For example, the proliferation of AI and machine learning applications across a broad range of industries with continuous R&D from tech giants spurring demand for accelerators to handle inferencing and training workloads leading to a CAGR of 42.2% to 2027 for the AI market. Additionally, the ongoing cloud migration by enterprises and scaling of data centers by leading cloud service provider fueling the cloud computing market with a CAGR of 17.5%. Other drivers include 5G deployment as well as next-generation gaming all requiring higher performance and power-efficient chips. All of these factors support the long-term growth of the HPC platform which TSMC believes can overtake the smartphone platform to become the most significant end market in the future.\nBesides HPC, the ongoing automotive chip shortage is another platform in which the company expects stronger growth this year. In 2020, the segment contracted in line with the decline in global vehicle sales by 14% as consumer confidence weakened and auto manufacturers halted production. As production resumes with car sales expected to rebound in the low teens, we expect the segment to grow in line with the industry recovery. Additionally, rising semiconductor content driven by EV which could see nearly10 times greater content per vehicle than a conventional combustion vehicle and ADAS fueling demand for sensors, analog and power ICs is a structural driver for TSMC.\nAdditionally, even more impressive about TSMC’s 2020 growth is the fact that the company lost a key contribution from the embargoed Huawei’s HiSilicon (12.8% of revenues) but still managed to register strong smartphone platform growth. Despite the modest global unit shipments decline of 9%, the growth in the platform is driven by 5G adoption, improved performance, longer battery life and increasing complexity of features such as biosensors and more AI features. These long-term factors support the company’s outlook for high single-digit growth in 2021 and beyond.\nSource:Toms Hardware, The Information Network\nAggressive Capacity Expansion Plans and Investments\nIn terms of capacity expansion, TSMC has upped its game in 2021 by increasing its capex by potentially 63% more than last year to $28 bln. The company has announced that around 80% of the budgeted capex will be allocated to expand capacity for the advanced process technologies below 7nm with the remainder for advanced packaging and specialty technologies. Additionally, it is also committing $100 bln over the next 3 years to increase capacity and support R&D towards advanced processes.\nPreviously, TSMC also announced its plan to expand in the US with a $12 bln fab in Arizona capable of producing 5nm chips. The 12-inch fab in Phoenix is relatively modest with a planned output of 20,000 with volume production only expected in 2024. Though, it has also been reported that TSMC might further increase the capacity and equipment capabilities which is a strong possibility with the robust demand environment and the company has also indicated that the location allows it to expand capacity if desired.\nSource:EENewsEurope,Techspot\nIn comparison with other larger spenders Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)and Samsung, TSMC’s planned investment commitment of $100 bln for foundry expansion is the most significant. In March, Intel announced it's planned a $20 bln initialinvestmentin Arizona for the construction of two fabs to directly compete with TSMC but a lot more is needed to stand a chance at challenging TSMC’s dominance. On the other hand, Samsung’s plannedinvestmentsof $116 bln are larger but spread across a longer period of 10 years compared to just 3 for TSMC.\n\n\n\nSource:Bloomberg\nTSMC’s Superior Process Technology and Roadmap\nBacked by its strong investment commitment, TSMC is able to reap the benefits from its strength as a technological leader in semiconductor manufacturing. Shrinking the size of transistors is becoming more challenging with prohibitive costs but a key feature for increasing chip density allowing continued performance improvements and energy efficiency. Chips at the leading edge nodes (below 10nm) are critical to achieve this and its share of demand would only grow larger to support advanced technologies accounting for nearly one third of capacity in 3 years.\nSource:IC Insights\nThis is where TSMC shines with its leadership owing to its focus on continuously developing more advanced process technologies. While the company only accounts for 40% to 65% of revenues for the less sophisticated 28-65nm chips, it dominates the market for most advanced nodes with making up 90% of chips below 10nm. We expect it to maintain its leadership at the advanced nodes as other pureplay competitors struggle with developing their processes.\nSource:Financial Times\nIn terms of the TSMC’s technology roadmap, the company’s 5nm process is already in the second year of volume production and continues to be ramped up with strong demand from smartphone and HPC applications. Following 5nm, the company is moving to 4nm and targeting volume production by next year. Also, the company has scheduled the 3nm for volume production in the second half of 2022. Based on a FinFET transistor structure, it is believed that its 3nm can provide 70% logic density gain, boosting performance up to 15% and cutting power consumption by 30%. The transistor size in a 3nm node is just 1/20,000th of a human hair. At the same time, the company is developing its GAAFET-based 2nm node with production expected in its Taiwanese fabs across Hsinchu and Baoshan.\nCompared to leading competitors, Samsung’s roadmap is also quite similar to TSMC as it plans to mass produce 3nm chips in 2022 with 2nm possibly also indevelopmentwith IBM(NYSE:IBM)but produced by Samsung. More recently, TSMC has announced a breakthrough in thedevelopmentof 1nm. Whereas for Intel, its Arizona fab is only indicated to produce 7nm technologies but only when it is completed in 2024.\nSource:IC Insights\nOverall, TSMC’s investment plans allow it to derive a distinct advantage owing to its focus on advanced nodes despite the hefty costs. Among pure-play foundries, the company has the highest return on capital employed at 27.3% versus the industry average of 13.8%.\n\n\n\nCompany\nReturn on Capital Employed\n\n\nTSMC\n27.3%\n\n\nUMC\n11.1%\n\n\nSMICOTCQX:SMICY\n3.1%\n\n\n\nSource:WSJ\nMoreover, TSMC also benefits from favourable pricing with a rising wafer pricing trend in line with its advanced node migration. As the only pure-play foundry with 7nm and 5nm in 2020, its wafer pricing increased by 6.8% while other pureplay foundries had flattish wafer pricing trends. As TSMC transitions to more advanced nodes, pricing is expected to trend upwards while its competitors’ prices remain relatively flat but couldriseby up around 20% this year due to tight capacity.\nSource:IC Insights\nBesides advanced nodes, the company’s advantage due to its scale is apparent as evident from its superior profitability compared to rivals. Its gross margins of 53.21% and net margins of 38.86% triumphs UMC and SMIC. However, data for Global Foundries could not be obtained as it is a private company.\n\n\n\nCompany\nRevenues ($ bln)\nGross Margins\nNet Margins\n\n\nTSMC\n$47.95\n53.21%\n38.86%\n\n\nUMC\n$6.3\n23.88%\n20.59%\n\n\nSMIC\n$3.91\n22.83%\n17.87%\n\n\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha, Investing.com, Macrotrends\nValuation\nDue to the robust foundry market, TSMC’s revenue grew 33% in 2020 with a 5-year average growth rate of 13.7%. Its average gross margins and net margins are 49.7% and 35% respectively.\nSource: TSMC, Khaveen Investments\nThe company has a strong cash flow generation profile with a 5-year average of 21%. However, due to the significant rise in guided capex from 2021 onwards, the company’s margins are expected to dip but recover as it expands aggressively.\nSource: TSMC, Khaveen Investments\nOwing to its immense scale and technology leadership, the company has managed to solidify its leadership by growing its market share over the past 5 years to 56% in 2020. As the company scales up capacity and advanced nodes 5nm this year, we anticipate further market share gains even beyond 2021.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe global foundry market is expected to grow at a 11% CAGR according to estimates from TrendForce. We expect TSMC to outpace this growth rate by gaining market share due to its scale and technological advantages as highlighted above. Overall, we see TSMC growing nearly 15% through 2023 which is in line with management guidance of 10 to 15% CAGR long term.\n\n\n\nTSMC Revenue Projection\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nFoundry Market\n78,921\n87,602\n97,239\n107,935\n\n\nTSMC Foundry Revenues\n44,205\n50,809\n58,343\n66,920\n\n\nTSMC Growth %\n14.9%\n14.8%\n14.7%\n\n\n\nSource: Statista, TrendForce, Khaveen Investments\nThe industry average EV/EBITDA of the pure-play foundry market is 10.53x excluding Samsung which is a tech conglomerate.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nTSMC\n15.64\n\n\nUMC\n8.89\n\n\nSMIC\n7.07\n\n\nAverage\n10.53\n\n\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nBased on a discount rate of 7.3% (company’s WACC), our model shows an upside of 15.2%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nDespite all the plans by Samsung and Intel, TSMC remains too big to beat as a pure-play foundry leader with growing market share owing to its superior technology process and scale. In 2020, the company saw robust growth across most end market platforms despite the trade embargo on Huawei. Robust demand is expected to roll over into 2021 across all major end markets especially fueled by the resumption of auto production and structural trend of HPC and 5G. To capitalize on the multi-year megatrends, the company has not only stepped up its capex budget for the year potentially up 63% but also a long-term 3-year $100 bln investment commitment to expand capacity for the advanced nodes. This highlights its commitment towards implementing its roadmap for the node migration towards 4nm and 3nm next year followed by 2nm further into the future. These factors cumulatively solidify its market leadership which could lead to further market share gains. Overall, we rate the company as aBuywith a target price of$126.32.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":985,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118763550,"gmtCreate":1622762647170,"gmtModify":1634098363369,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"BHC ever more than $100 few years back!","listText":"BHC ever more than $100 few years back!","text":"BHC ever more than $100 few years back!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118763550","repostId":"2140476423","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":133763655,"gmtCreate":1621812157077,"gmtModify":1634186518663,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Too volatile, like a roller coaster&nbsp;","listText":"Too volatile, like a roller coaster&nbsp;","text":"Too volatile, like a roller coaster","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133763655","repostId":"2137182794","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198809119,"gmtCreate":1620949317431,"gmtModify":1634195109494,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"So benefit to banking and infrastructure stocks?","listText":"So benefit to banking and infrastructure stocks?","text":"So benefit to banking and infrastructure stocks?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198809119","repostId":"1198935836","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191196281,"gmtCreate":1620862501143,"gmtModify":1634195844369,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The price has dropped since the peak of 27","listText":"The price has dropped since the peak of 27","text":"The price has dropped since the peak of 27","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191196281","repostId":"2135361078","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199102176,"gmtCreate":1620689467095,"gmtModify":1634197180171,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Commodities up shares down&nbsp;","listText":"Commodities up shares down&nbsp;","text":"Commodities up shares down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199102176","repostId":"2134551566","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130253912,"gmtCreate":1621553741336,"gmtModify":1634188237298,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Finally there are good news bright up my Friday!","listText":"Finally there are good news bright up my Friday!","text":"Finally there are good news bright up my Friday!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130253912","repostId":"2136010949","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104835446,"gmtCreate":1620372461785,"gmtModify":1634205692528,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Can these stocks return as high as Dogecoin?","listText":"Can these stocks return as high as Dogecoin?","text":"Can these stocks return as high as Dogecoin?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104835446","repostId":"2133520488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374477057,"gmtCreate":1619479642279,"gmtModify":1634273181080,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The news gives a buy on dip chance","listText":"The news gives a buy on dip chance","text":"The news gives a buy on dip chance","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374477057","repostId":"1126815616","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126815616","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619451024,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1126815616?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-26 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If Biden hikes capital gains taxes on millionaires, some new investors see a ‘buying opportunity’<blockquote>如果拜登提高百万富翁的资本利得税，一些新投资者看到了 “买入机会”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126815616","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘I look at something like this as an opportunity to buy and hold,’ said one millennial investor who’","content":"<p>‘I look at something like this as an opportunity to buy and hold,’ said one millennial investor who’s on the lookout for a stock market sell-off if capital gains tax rates increase.</p><p><blockquote>一位千禧一代投资者说：'我认为这是一个买入并持有的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Alex Zagorski will be on the lookout for stock market bargains if President Joe Biden goes through with a reported plan to effectively double the capital gains tax rate on people who earn at least $1 million a year.</p><p><blockquote>如果乔·拜登总统实施据报道的计划，将年收入至少 100 万美元的人的资本利得税税率有效地提高一倍，亚历克斯·扎戈尔斯基 (Alex Zagorski) 将密切关注股市的便宜货。</blockquote></p><p> Biden is reportedly planning tofollow through on a campaign pledgeto apply a 39.6% capital gains rate for millionaires and above. Coupled with a pre-existing 3.8% tax linked to the Affordable Care Act, that would be 43.4% rate. The capital gains rate on profits from investment securities is currently 20% for top earners.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，拜登计划兑现竞选承诺，对百万富翁及以上人士适用 39.6% 的资本利得率。再加上与患者保护与平价医疗法案相关的现有3.8%的税，这将是43.4%的税率。目前，高收入者的投资证券利润资本收益率为 20%。</blockquote></p><p> If history is any guide — and if Biden can even get the idea through Congress — there’s going to be a stock market sell-off in some form as some rich investors take advantage of lower rates before they climb.</p><p><blockquote>如果以史为鉴--如果拜登能让国会通过这个想法--那么股市将会出现某种形式的抛售，因为一些富有的投资者会在利率上升之前利用较低的利率。</blockquote></p><p> And Zagorski, a 27-year-old mechanical engineer from Detroit, Mich. with years of investing experience, will be there waiting. “My opinion on investing is very long-term,” he told MarketWatch. “I look at something like this as an opportunity to buy and hold.”</p><p><blockquote>扎戈尔斯基是一名来自密歇根州底特律的 27 岁机械工程师。凭借多年的投资经验，会在那里等待。“他告诉 MarketWatch：”我对投资的看法是非常长远的。“我认为这样的情况是买入并持有的机会”。</blockquote></p><p> Martin Sanchez, another relatively new investor, who started buying individual stocks in 2018, agrees. “I think there’s a buying opportunity for millennials if we do see a huge sell-off,” said the 27-year-old Winston Salem, N.C. resident, who works in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>另一位相对较新的投资者马丁·桑切斯 (Martin Sanchez) 于 2018 年开始购买个股，他对此表示同意。“27 岁的北卡罗来纳州塞勒姆居民温斯顿-塞勒姆（Winston Salem）在科技行业工作，他说：”我认为，如果我们看到大幅抛售，千禧一代就有机会买入。</blockquote></p><p> If Sanchez sees the opening, he might buy up some shares in companies that focus on web security, giving him a chance to spread out his holdings, which are heavier in stocks like DisneyDIS,0.38%and TeslaDIS,0.38%.Sanchez is watching Biden’s tax proposals closely.</p><p><blockquote>如果桑切斯看到了这个机会，他可能会买入一些专注于网络安全的公司的股票，让他有机会分散自己的持股，其中迪士尼DIS（0.38%）和特斯拉DIS（0.38%）等股票的重仓股。</blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of open questions about the possible capital gains rate hike. Will Biden include the idea in the “American Families Plan” that he’s expected to unveil on Wednesday? How many other tax hikes targeting rich household will that plan include? Will it pass Congress?</p><p><blockquote>关于可能的资本利得率上调，有很多悬而未决的问题。拜登是否会将这一想法纳入他预计将于周三公布的 “美国家庭计划 ”中？该计划还将包括多少针对富裕家庭的增税措施？它会通过国会吗？</blockquote></p><p> But another question is: What does this potential tax increase mean for a new generation of retail investors?</p><p><blockquote>但另一个问题是：这种潜在的增税对新一代散户投资者意味着什么？</blockquote></p><p> By now, newer investors have gone through the 2020 market’s fall and rise, and weathered the meme stock trading frenzy that put companies like GameStopGME,3.18%on a share price rollercoaster. Do they stand to gain from an estimated$178 billionin selling that could occur prior to the rate increase?</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，新投资者已经经历了 2020 年市场的跌宕起伏，并经受住了让 GameStopGME 等公司股价过山车上涨 3.18% 的备忘录股票交易狂潮。在加息之前，他们会从估计1780亿美元的销售额中获利吗？</blockquote></p><p> “There are some who may view it as, ‘Oh, here’s my opportunity to get on board,’” said James Angel, a professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.</p><p><blockquote>“乔治敦大学麦克唐纳商学院教授詹姆斯-安吉尔（James Angel）说：”有些人可能会认为，'哦，这是我加入的机会'。</blockquote></p><p> But like so much else based on the potential rate hikes, there are big open questions on how new investors — and investors in general — will react. “Does it create opportunity? Well, maybe,” Angel said. “But you have to look carefully on stock-by-stock basis.”</p><p><blockquote>但就像许多基于潜在加息的事情一样，新投资者以及一般投资者将如何反应也存在很大的悬而未决的问题。“这会创造机会吗？也许吧，”安吉尔说。“但你必须逐股仔细查看。”</blockquote></p><p> Indeed,a share price might have little to do with the tax environment,one investor note said Friday. “Ultimately, other factors such as the outlook for economic growth, monetary policy, and interest rates are much more powerful drivers of equity market returns and valuations,” wrote Mark Haefele, chief investment officer for global wealth management at UBS.</p><p><blockquote>周五的一份投资者报告称， 事实上， 股价可能与税收环境关系不大。“瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官马克-海费勒（Mark Haefele）写道：”归根结底，经济增长前景、货币政策和利率等其他因素是股市回报和估值的更有力驱动因素。</blockquote></p><p> ‘One would expect people to start selling off’</p><p><blockquote>人们会期待人们开始抛售</blockquote></p><p> When President Ronald Reagan signed theTax Reform Act of 1986,he lowered the top income-tax rate from 50% to 28%.</p><p><blockquote>当罗纳德·里根总统签署1986年税收改革法案时，他将最高税率从50%降至28%。</blockquote></p><p> The Republican president also changed the tax code in order to treat long-term capital gains as ordinary income, instead of giving capital gains a preferential rate. That bumped the capital gains rate up to 28% for rich households.</p><p><blockquote>共和党总统还修改了税法，以便将长期资本利得视为普通收入，而不是给予资本利得优惠税率。这使得富裕家庭的资本利得率高达 28%。</blockquote></p><p> In the lead up to the changes during tax year 1986, there was a 60% rise in sales on all sorts of capital assets, according to researchers at the nonpartisan U.S. Congress committee Joint Committee on Taxation, and the Tax Policy Center, a think tank.</p><p><blockquote>据无党派的美国研究人员称，在1986纳税年度发生变化之前，各种资本资产的销售额增长了60%。国会委员会税收联合委员会和智库税收政策中心。</blockquote></p><p> Ahead of a 2013 change — which brought the long-term capital gains rate from 15% to 20% and tacked on the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax — there was a 40% rise in capital gains “realizations,”the researchers said, meaning investors were selling their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员说，在 2013 年的变更之前--将长期资本利得率从 15% 提高到 20%，并加征 3.8% 的净投资所得税--资本利得 “变现 ”增加了 40%，这意味着投资者正在出售他们持有的股票。</blockquote></p><p> History could repeat itself, one of the authors told MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>一位作者告诉 MarketWatch，历史可能会重演。</blockquote></p><p> “Certainly, one would expect people to start selling off,” said Robert McClelland, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center. “How much, I don’t know.”</p><p><blockquote>“税收政策中心高级研究员罗伯特-麦克莱兰（Robert McClelland）说：”当然，人们会期待人们开始抛售。“多少，我不知道。”</blockquote></p><p> But McClelland noted it’s important to remember that many stock market buyers are foreign investors and retirement accounts, including 401(k) plans or pension plans, rather than individual investors operating through a brokerage account.</p><p><blockquote>但麦克莱兰指出，重要的是要记住，许多股市买家都是外国投资者和退休账户，包括 401(k) 计划或养老金计划，而不是通过经纪账户操作的个人投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Foreign investors own about 40% of stock market equity and retirement accounts own about 30%, according toestimateslast year from McClelland’s Tax Policy Center colleagues. Taxable accounts, like a brokerage account, own another 25% in stock market equity.</p><p><blockquote>根据麦克莱兰税收政策中心同事去年的估计，外国投资者拥有约 40% 的股票市场股票，退休账户拥有约 30%。应税账户，例如经纪账户，拥有另外 25% 的股票市场股本。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another thing to remember is if rich people are selling, it hardly means they are walking away. “I would still be buying for my clients,” said David Haas, owner of Cereus Financial Advisors in Franklin Lakes, N.J. “In other words, selling does not mean getting out of the market. I would sell a client’s gains and buy something similar to continue participation in the market. The point is to take gains, not stop investing.”</p><p><blockquote>另一件要记住的事情是，如果富人在抛售，这并不意味着他们要离开。“新泽西州富兰克林湖 Cereus Financial Advisors 的老板大卫-哈斯（David Haas）说：”我仍然会为我的客户购买。“换句话说，卖出并不意味着退出市场。我会卖掉客户的收益，然后买入类似的东西，继续参与市场。重点是获取收益，而不是停止投资。”</blockquote></p><p> As markets digested news Thursday of Biden’s possible capital gains tax hike, they ended the day on a down note. By Friday, they rebounded, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.12%ending 228 points higher, up 0.7%, and the S&amp;P 500SPX,0.28%finishing up 1.1%higher.</p><p><blockquote>随着市场周四消化拜登可能提高资本利得税的消息，市场以下跌收盘。到周五，它们出现反弹，道琼斯工业平均指数 (Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA)，0.12%，收盘上涨 228 点，上涨 0.7%，标准普尔 500SPX 指数 (S&amp;P 500SPX)，0.28%，收盘上涨 1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Zagorski says he might be able to profit from any future sell off, but that still doesn’t erase his personal concerns about a rate hike. With any capital gains rate increase, in his view, “you’re just taking away money from people who would be investing in the market.”</p><p><blockquote>扎戈尔斯基说，他也许能从未来的任何抛售中获利，但这仍然不能消除他个人对加息的担忧。在他看来，随着资本利得率的提高，“你只是从那些将投资市场的人那里拿走了钱”。</blockquote></p><p> But going forward, the buying opportunities might not be crystal clear. Some less experienced retail investors might not be able to determine if stock sales and potentially dropping prices have to do with tax strategy — and that might cause them to sell too, he said.</p><p><blockquote>但展望未来，买入机会可能并不清晰。他说，一些经验不足的散户投资者可能无法确定股票销售和潜在的价格下跌是否与税收策略有关，这也可能导致他们抛售。</blockquote></p><p> “When you see people at the top doing things, it’s instinctual to mimic them, even if it’s not in your best interest,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”当你看到高层做事时，你会本能地模仿他们，即使这不符合你的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If Biden hikes capital gains taxes on millionaires, some new investors see a ‘buying opportunity’<blockquote>如果拜登提高百万富翁的资本利得税，一些新投资者看到了 “买入机会”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf Biden hikes capital gains taxes on millionaires, some new investors see a ‘buying opportunity’<blockquote>如果拜登提高百万富翁的资本利得税，一些新投资者看到了 “买入机会”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-26 23:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>‘I look at something like this as an opportunity to buy and hold,’ said one millennial investor who’s on the lookout for a stock market sell-off if capital gains tax rates increase.</p><p><blockquote>一位千禧一代投资者说：'我认为这是一个买入并持有的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Alex Zagorski will be on the lookout for stock market bargains if President Joe Biden goes through with a reported plan to effectively double the capital gains tax rate on people who earn at least $1 million a year.</p><p><blockquote>如果乔·拜登总统实施据报道的计划，将年收入至少 100 万美元的人的资本利得税税率有效地提高一倍，亚历克斯·扎戈尔斯基 (Alex Zagorski) 将密切关注股市的便宜货。</blockquote></p><p> Biden is reportedly planning tofollow through on a campaign pledgeto apply a 39.6% capital gains rate for millionaires and above. Coupled with a pre-existing 3.8% tax linked to the Affordable Care Act, that would be 43.4% rate. The capital gains rate on profits from investment securities is currently 20% for top earners.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，拜登计划兑现竞选承诺，对百万富翁及以上人士适用 39.6% 的资本利得率。再加上与患者保护与平价医疗法案相关的现有3.8%的税，这将是43.4%的税率。目前，高收入者的投资证券利润资本收益率为 20%。</blockquote></p><p> If history is any guide — and if Biden can even get the idea through Congress — there’s going to be a stock market sell-off in some form as some rich investors take advantage of lower rates before they climb.</p><p><blockquote>如果以史为鉴--如果拜登能让国会通过这个想法--那么股市将会出现某种形式的抛售，因为一些富有的投资者会在利率上升之前利用较低的利率。</blockquote></p><p> And Zagorski, a 27-year-old mechanical engineer from Detroit, Mich. with years of investing experience, will be there waiting. “My opinion on investing is very long-term,” he told MarketWatch. “I look at something like this as an opportunity to buy and hold.”</p><p><blockquote>扎戈尔斯基是一名来自密歇根州底特律的 27 岁机械工程师。凭借多年的投资经验，会在那里等待。“他告诉 MarketWatch：”我对投资的看法是非常长远的。“我认为这样的情况是买入并持有的机会”。</blockquote></p><p> Martin Sanchez, another relatively new investor, who started buying individual stocks in 2018, agrees. “I think there’s a buying opportunity for millennials if we do see a huge sell-off,” said the 27-year-old Winston Salem, N.C. resident, who works in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>另一位相对较新的投资者马丁·桑切斯 (Martin Sanchez) 于 2018 年开始购买个股，他对此表示同意。“27 岁的北卡罗来纳州塞勒姆居民温斯顿-塞勒姆（Winston Salem）在科技行业工作，他说：”我认为，如果我们看到大幅抛售，千禧一代就有机会买入。</blockquote></p><p> If Sanchez sees the opening, he might buy up some shares in companies that focus on web security, giving him a chance to spread out his holdings, which are heavier in stocks like DisneyDIS,0.38%and TeslaDIS,0.38%.Sanchez is watching Biden’s tax proposals closely.</p><p><blockquote>如果桑切斯看到了这个机会，他可能会买入一些专注于网络安全的公司的股票，让他有机会分散自己的持股，其中迪士尼DIS（0.38%）和特斯拉DIS（0.38%）等股票的重仓股。</blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of open questions about the possible capital gains rate hike. Will Biden include the idea in the “American Families Plan” that he’s expected to unveil on Wednesday? How many other tax hikes targeting rich household will that plan include? Will it pass Congress?</p><p><blockquote>关于可能的资本利得率上调，有很多悬而未决的问题。拜登是否会将这一想法纳入他预计将于周三公布的 “美国家庭计划 ”中？该计划还将包括多少针对富裕家庭的增税措施？它会通过国会吗？</blockquote></p><p> But another question is: What does this potential tax increase mean for a new generation of retail investors?</p><p><blockquote>但另一个问题是：这种潜在的增税对新一代散户投资者意味着什么？</blockquote></p><p> By now, newer investors have gone through the 2020 market’s fall and rise, and weathered the meme stock trading frenzy that put companies like GameStopGME,3.18%on a share price rollercoaster. Do they stand to gain from an estimated$178 billionin selling that could occur prior to the rate increase?</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，新投资者已经经历了 2020 年市场的跌宕起伏，并经受住了让 GameStopGME 等公司股价过山车上涨 3.18% 的备忘录股票交易狂潮。在加息之前，他们会从估计1780亿美元的销售额中获利吗？</blockquote></p><p> “There are some who may view it as, ‘Oh, here’s my opportunity to get on board,’” said James Angel, a professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.</p><p><blockquote>“乔治敦大学麦克唐纳商学院教授詹姆斯-安吉尔（James Angel）说：”有些人可能会认为，'哦，这是我加入的机会'。</blockquote></p><p> But like so much else based on the potential rate hikes, there are big open questions on how new investors — and investors in general — will react. “Does it create opportunity? Well, maybe,” Angel said. “But you have to look carefully on stock-by-stock basis.”</p><p><blockquote>但就像许多基于潜在加息的事情一样，新投资者以及一般投资者将如何反应也存在很大的悬而未决的问题。“这会创造机会吗？也许吧，”安吉尔说。“但你必须逐股仔细查看。”</blockquote></p><p> Indeed,a share price might have little to do with the tax environment,one investor note said Friday. “Ultimately, other factors such as the outlook for economic growth, monetary policy, and interest rates are much more powerful drivers of equity market returns and valuations,” wrote Mark Haefele, chief investment officer for global wealth management at UBS.</p><p><blockquote>周五的一份投资者报告称， 事实上， 股价可能与税收环境关系不大。“瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官马克-海费勒（Mark Haefele）写道：”归根结底，经济增长前景、货币政策和利率等其他因素是股市回报和估值的更有力驱动因素。</blockquote></p><p> ‘One would expect people to start selling off’</p><p><blockquote>人们会期待人们开始抛售</blockquote></p><p> When President Ronald Reagan signed theTax Reform Act of 1986,he lowered the top income-tax rate from 50% to 28%.</p><p><blockquote>当罗纳德·里根总统签署1986年税收改革法案时，他将最高税率从50%降至28%。</blockquote></p><p> The Republican president also changed the tax code in order to treat long-term capital gains as ordinary income, instead of giving capital gains a preferential rate. That bumped the capital gains rate up to 28% for rich households.</p><p><blockquote>共和党总统还修改了税法，以便将长期资本利得视为普通收入，而不是给予资本利得优惠税率。这使得富裕家庭的资本利得率高达 28%。</blockquote></p><p> In the lead up to the changes during tax year 1986, there was a 60% rise in sales on all sorts of capital assets, according to researchers at the nonpartisan U.S. Congress committee Joint Committee on Taxation, and the Tax Policy Center, a think tank.</p><p><blockquote>据无党派的美国研究人员称，在1986纳税年度发生变化之前，各种资本资产的销售额增长了60%。国会委员会税收联合委员会和智库税收政策中心。</blockquote></p><p> Ahead of a 2013 change — which brought the long-term capital gains rate from 15% to 20% and tacked on the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax — there was a 40% rise in capital gains “realizations,”the researchers said, meaning investors were selling their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员说，在 2013 年的变更之前--将长期资本利得率从 15% 提高到 20%，并加征 3.8% 的净投资所得税--资本利得 “变现 ”增加了 40%，这意味着投资者正在出售他们持有的股票。</blockquote></p><p> History could repeat itself, one of the authors told MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>一位作者告诉 MarketWatch，历史可能会重演。</blockquote></p><p> “Certainly, one would expect people to start selling off,” said Robert McClelland, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center. “How much, I don’t know.”</p><p><blockquote>“税收政策中心高级研究员罗伯特-麦克莱兰（Robert McClelland）说：”当然，人们会期待人们开始抛售。“多少，我不知道。”</blockquote></p><p> But McClelland noted it’s important to remember that many stock market buyers are foreign investors and retirement accounts, including 401(k) plans or pension plans, rather than individual investors operating through a brokerage account.</p><p><blockquote>但麦克莱兰指出，重要的是要记住，许多股市买家都是外国投资者和退休账户，包括 401(k) 计划或养老金计划，而不是通过经纪账户操作的个人投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Foreign investors own about 40% of stock market equity and retirement accounts own about 30%, according toestimateslast year from McClelland’s Tax Policy Center colleagues. Taxable accounts, like a brokerage account, own another 25% in stock market equity.</p><p><blockquote>根据麦克莱兰税收政策中心同事去年的估计，外国投资者拥有约 40% 的股票市场股票，退休账户拥有约 30%。应税账户，例如经纪账户，拥有另外 25% 的股票市场股本。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another thing to remember is if rich people are selling, it hardly means they are walking away. “I would still be buying for my clients,” said David Haas, owner of Cereus Financial Advisors in Franklin Lakes, N.J. “In other words, selling does not mean getting out of the market. I would sell a client’s gains and buy something similar to continue participation in the market. The point is to take gains, not stop investing.”</p><p><blockquote>另一件要记住的事情是，如果富人在抛售，这并不意味着他们要离开。“新泽西州富兰克林湖 Cereus Financial Advisors 的老板大卫-哈斯（David Haas）说：”我仍然会为我的客户购买。“换句话说，卖出并不意味着退出市场。我会卖掉客户的收益，然后买入类似的东西，继续参与市场。重点是获取收益，而不是停止投资。”</blockquote></p><p> As markets digested news Thursday of Biden’s possible capital gains tax hike, they ended the day on a down note. By Friday, they rebounded, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.12%ending 228 points higher, up 0.7%, and the S&amp;P 500SPX,0.28%finishing up 1.1%higher.</p><p><blockquote>随着市场周四消化拜登可能提高资本利得税的消息，市场以下跌收盘。到周五，它们出现反弹，道琼斯工业平均指数 (Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA)，0.12%，收盘上涨 228 点，上涨 0.7%，标准普尔 500SPX 指数 (S&amp;P 500SPX)，0.28%，收盘上涨 1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Zagorski says he might be able to profit from any future sell off, but that still doesn’t erase his personal concerns about a rate hike. With any capital gains rate increase, in his view, “you’re just taking away money from people who would be investing in the market.”</p><p><blockquote>扎戈尔斯基说，他也许能从未来的任何抛售中获利，但这仍然不能消除他个人对加息的担忧。在他看来，随着资本利得率的提高，“你只是从那些将投资市场的人那里拿走了钱”。</blockquote></p><p> But going forward, the buying opportunities might not be crystal clear. Some less experienced retail investors might not be able to determine if stock sales and potentially dropping prices have to do with tax strategy — and that might cause them to sell too, he said.</p><p><blockquote>但展望未来，买入机会可能并不清晰。他说，一些经验不足的散户投资者可能无法确定股票销售和潜在的价格下跌是否与税收策略有关，这也可能导致他们抛售。</blockquote></p><p> “When you see people at the top doing things, it’s instinctual to mimic them, even if it’s not in your best interest,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”当你看到高层做事时，你会本能地模仿他们，即使这不符合你的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-biden-hikes-capital-gains-taxes-on-millionaires-some-new-investors-see-a-buying-opportunity-11619450737?mod=mw_latestnews\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-biden-hikes-capital-gains-taxes-on-millionaires-some-new-investors-see-a-buying-opportunity-11619450737?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126815616","content_text":"‘I look at something like this as an opportunity to buy and hold,’ said one millennial investor who’s on the lookout for a stock market sell-off if capital gains tax rates increase.\nAlex Zagorski will be on the lookout for stock market bargains if President Joe Biden goes through with a reported plan to effectively double the capital gains tax rate on people who earn at least $1 million a year.\nBiden is reportedly planning tofollow through on a campaign pledgeto apply a 39.6% capital gains rate for millionaires and above. Coupled with a pre-existing 3.8% tax linked to the Affordable Care Act, that would be 43.4% rate. The capital gains rate on profits from investment securities is currently 20% for top earners.\nIf history is any guide — and if Biden can even get the idea through Congress — there’s going to be a stock market sell-off in some form as some rich investors take advantage of lower rates before they climb.\nAnd Zagorski, a 27-year-old mechanical engineer from Detroit, Mich. with years of investing experience, will be there waiting. “My opinion on investing is very long-term,” he told MarketWatch. “I look at something like this as an opportunity to buy and hold.”\nMartin Sanchez, another relatively new investor, who started buying individual stocks in 2018, agrees. “I think there’s a buying opportunity for millennials if we do see a huge sell-off,” said the 27-year-old Winston Salem, N.C. resident, who works in the tech sector.\nIf Sanchez sees the opening, he might buy up some shares in companies that focus on web security, giving him a chance to spread out his holdings, which are heavier in stocks like DisneyDIS,0.38%and TeslaDIS,0.38%.Sanchez is watching Biden’s tax proposals closely.\nThere are a lot of open questions about the possible capital gains rate hike. Will Biden include the idea in the “American Families Plan” that he’s expected to unveil on Wednesday? How many other tax hikes targeting rich household will that plan include? Will it pass Congress?\nBut another question is: What does this potential tax increase mean for a new generation of retail investors?\nBy now, newer investors have gone through the 2020 market’s fall and rise, and weathered the meme stock trading frenzy that put companies like GameStopGME,3.18%on a share price rollercoaster. Do they stand to gain from an estimated$178 billionin selling that could occur prior to the rate increase?\n“There are some who may view it as, ‘Oh, here’s my opportunity to get on board,’” said James Angel, a professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.\nBut like so much else based on the potential rate hikes, there are big open questions on how new investors — and investors in general — will react. “Does it create opportunity? Well, maybe,” Angel said. “But you have to look carefully on stock-by-stock basis.”\nIndeed,a share price might have little to do with the tax environment,one investor note said Friday. “Ultimately, other factors such as the outlook for economic growth, monetary policy, and interest rates are much more powerful drivers of equity market returns and valuations,” wrote Mark Haefele, chief investment officer for global wealth management at UBS.\n‘One would expect people to start selling off’\nWhen President Ronald Reagan signed theTax Reform Act of 1986,he lowered the top income-tax rate from 50% to 28%.\nThe Republican president also changed the tax code in order to treat long-term capital gains as ordinary income, instead of giving capital gains a preferential rate. That bumped the capital gains rate up to 28% for rich households.\nIn the lead up to the changes during tax year 1986, there was a 60% rise in sales on all sorts of capital assets, according to researchers at the nonpartisan U.S. Congress committee Joint Committee on Taxation, and the Tax Policy Center, a think tank.\nAhead of a 2013 change — which brought the long-term capital gains rate from 15% to 20% and tacked on the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax — there was a 40% rise in capital gains “realizations,”the researchers said, meaning investors were selling their holdings.\nHistory could repeat itself, one of the authors told MarketWatch.\n“Certainly, one would expect people to start selling off,” said Robert McClelland, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center. “How much, I don’t know.”\nBut McClelland noted it’s important to remember that many stock market buyers are foreign investors and retirement accounts, including 401(k) plans or pension plans, rather than individual investors operating through a brokerage account.\nForeign investors own about 40% of stock market equity and retirement accounts own about 30%, according toestimateslast year from McClelland’s Tax Policy Center colleagues. Taxable accounts, like a brokerage account, own another 25% in stock market equity.\nAnother thing to remember is if rich people are selling, it hardly means they are walking away. “I would still be buying for my clients,” said David Haas, owner of Cereus Financial Advisors in Franklin Lakes, N.J. “In other words, selling does not mean getting out of the market. I would sell a client’s gains and buy something similar to continue participation in the market. The point is to take gains, not stop investing.”\nAs markets digested news Thursday of Biden’s possible capital gains tax hike, they ended the day on a down note. By Friday, they rebounded, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.12%ending 228 points higher, up 0.7%, and the S&P 500SPX,0.28%finishing up 1.1%higher.\nZagorski says he might be able to profit from any future sell off, but that still doesn’t erase his personal concerns about a rate hike. With any capital gains rate increase, in his view, “you’re just taking away money from people who would be investing in the market.”\nBut going forward, the buying opportunities might not be crystal clear. Some less experienced retail investors might not be able to determine if stock sales and potentially dropping prices have to do with tax strategy — and that might cause them to sell too, he said.\n“When you see people at the top doing things, it’s instinctual to mimic them, even if it’s not in your best interest,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1076,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168200103,"gmtCreate":1623975259202,"gmtModify":1631894043662,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"What next?","listText":"What next?","text":"What next?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168200103","repostId":"1107055650","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107055650","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623975076,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107055650?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:11","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Gold Got Crushed After the Fed’s Big Surprise. Here’s What Could Happen Next.<blockquote>美联储大吃一惊后，黄金遭受重创。以下是接下来可能发生的事情。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107055650","media":"Barrons","summary":"Duck for cover, gold bulls.\nThat was the message the market seemed to send on Thursday, as the preci","content":"<p>Duck for cover, gold bulls.</p><p><blockquote>躲起来，金牛。</blockquote></p><p> That was the message the market seemed to send on Thursday, as the precious metal tumbled $85.70, or 4.6%, to $1,773.80 an ounce, following a curveball from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>这就是周四市场似乎发出的信息，在美联储发布曲线球后，贵金属下跌 85.70 美元，跌幅 4.6%，至每盎司 1,773.80 美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a continuous contract basis, gold is trading at levels not seen since the end of April. It was the biggest drop since November 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在连续合约的基础上，黄金的交易价格处于4月底以来的最高水平。这是自2020年11月以来的最大跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> Gold miners also got hit hard. The&nbsp;VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF(GDX) fell 5% to $34.93, while the&nbsp;VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ) dropped 4.7% to $49.02. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;finished the day little changed, while the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;fell 0.6%, and theNasdaq Compositerose 0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>金矿开采商也受到了沉重打击。VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) 下跌 5%，至 34.93 美元；VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) 下跌 4.7%，至 49.02 美元。标普500收盘变化不大，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 0.6%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨 0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> While the central bank held policy steady, it also&nbsp;signaled faster and sooner interest rate increases, with its forecast suggesting two increases in 2023. And the Fed increased its inflation forecasts for this year and next.</p><p><blockquote>央行在保持政策稳定的同时，也发出了更快更快加息的信号，其预测显示2023年将加息两次。美联储上调了今明两年的通胀预测。</blockquote></p><p> Recent data showing surging prices had led many to believe the Fed would at least begin early discussions about reining in some of its ultra-accommodative policy aimed at cushioning the economy from the Covid-19 pandemic. But the outcome was far more hawkish than some expected.</p><p><blockquote>最近的数据显示价格飙升，这让许多人相信美联储至少会开始尽早讨论限制其旨在缓冲经济免受 Covid-19 大流行影响的一些超宽松政策。但结果比一些人预期的要鹰派得多。</blockquote></p><p> Gold for August delivery settled slightly higher at $1,861.40 on Wednesday, but began to fall in electronic trading after the Fed announcement and kept going. That is as Treasury yields&nbsp;climbed across the board—the yield on the two-year note was hovering the highest level in a year—and the dollar surged.</p><p><blockquote>8月交割的黄金周三小幅收高，报1,861.40美元，但在美联储宣布后，电子交易中开始下跌，并继续下跌。与此同时，美国国债收益率全面攀升——两年期国债收益率徘徊在一年来的最高水平——美元也飙升。</blockquote></p><p> “Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing&nbsp;gold, and prospects of a further rise in yields should cap the upside potential in the yellow metal despite the rising inflationary pressures. A sustained positive pressure on yields could send the price of an ounce sustainably below the $1800 level,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, in a note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>“收益率上升会增加持有无息黄金的机会成本，尽管通胀压力不断上升，但收益率进一步上升的前景应该会限制黄金的上涨潜力。瑞士报价（Swissquote）高级分析师伊佩克-奥兹卡德斯卡娅（Ipek Ozkardeskaya）在给客户的一份报告中说：”收益率持续上行的压力可能会使每盎司黄金价格持续低于 1800 美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, gold bulls need to defend that line in the sand, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda 高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚 (Edward Moya) 表示，事实上，黄金多头需要在沙滩上捍卫这条线。</blockquote></p><p> “The Fed’s hawkish pivot is a major buzzkill for gold bulls that could see some momentum selling over the short-term.&nbsp;Short-term Treasury yields will continue to rise and that should provide some underlying support for the dollar, which will keep commodities vulnerable,” Moya told clients in a note.</p><p><blockquote>“美联储的鹰派转向对黄金多头来说是一个重大打击，他们可能会在短期内看到一些抛售势头。莫亚在一份报告中告诉客户：”短期国债收益率将继续上升，这应该会为美元提供一些潜在支撑，这将使大宗商品保持脆弱性。</blockquote></p><p> Silver prices tanked along with gold, with June futures trading down nearly $1.956, or 7%, to $27.75 an ounce. A host of industrial metals prices were also lower on the day, a day after China&nbsp;announced plans&nbsp;to release national reserves of industrial metals to cool soaring commodities prices.</p><p><blockquote>白银价格与黄金价格一起下跌，6 月份期货价格下跌近 1.956 美元，跌幅 7%，至每盎司 27.75 美元。在中国宣布计划释放国家工业金属储备以冷却飙升的大宗商品价格的第二天，许多工业金属价格当天也走低。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold Got Crushed After the Fed’s Big Surprise. Here’s What Could Happen Next.<blockquote>美联储大吃一惊后，黄金遭受重创。以下是接下来可能发生的事情。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGold Got Crushed After the Fed’s Big Surprise. Here’s What Could Happen Next.<blockquote>美联储大吃一惊后，黄金遭受重创。以下是接下来可能发生的事情。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 08:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Duck for cover, gold bulls.</p><p><blockquote>躲起来，金牛。</blockquote></p><p> That was the message the market seemed to send on Thursday, as the precious metal tumbled $85.70, or 4.6%, to $1,773.80 an ounce, following a curveball from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>这就是周四市场似乎发出的信息，在美联储发布曲线球后，贵金属下跌 85.70 美元，跌幅 4.6%，至每盎司 1,773.80 美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a continuous contract basis, gold is trading at levels not seen since the end of April. It was the biggest drop since November 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在连续合约的基础上，黄金的交易价格处于4月底以来的最高水平。这是自2020年11月以来的最大跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> Gold miners also got hit hard. The&nbsp;VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF(GDX) fell 5% to $34.93, while the&nbsp;VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ) dropped 4.7% to $49.02. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;finished the day little changed, while the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;fell 0.6%, and theNasdaq Compositerose 0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>金矿开采商也受到了沉重打击。VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) 下跌 5%，至 34.93 美元；VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) 下跌 4.7%，至 49.02 美元。标普500收盘变化不大，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 0.6%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨 0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> While the central bank held policy steady, it also&nbsp;signaled faster and sooner interest rate increases, with its forecast suggesting two increases in 2023. And the Fed increased its inflation forecasts for this year and next.</p><p><blockquote>央行在保持政策稳定的同时，也发出了更快更快加息的信号，其预测显示2023年将加息两次。美联储上调了今明两年的通胀预测。</blockquote></p><p> Recent data showing surging prices had led many to believe the Fed would at least begin early discussions about reining in some of its ultra-accommodative policy aimed at cushioning the economy from the Covid-19 pandemic. But the outcome was far more hawkish than some expected.</p><p><blockquote>最近的数据显示价格飙升，这让许多人相信美联储至少会开始尽早讨论限制其旨在缓冲经济免受 Covid-19 大流行影响的一些超宽松政策。但结果比一些人预期的要鹰派得多。</blockquote></p><p> Gold for August delivery settled slightly higher at $1,861.40 on Wednesday, but began to fall in electronic trading after the Fed announcement and kept going. That is as Treasury yields&nbsp;climbed across the board—the yield on the two-year note was hovering the highest level in a year—and the dollar surged.</p><p><blockquote>8月交割的黄金周三小幅收高，报1,861.40美元，但在美联储宣布后，电子交易中开始下跌，并继续下跌。与此同时，美国国债收益率全面攀升——两年期国债收益率徘徊在一年来的最高水平——美元也飙升。</blockquote></p><p> “Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing&nbsp;gold, and prospects of a further rise in yields should cap the upside potential in the yellow metal despite the rising inflationary pressures. A sustained positive pressure on yields could send the price of an ounce sustainably below the $1800 level,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, in a note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>“收益率上升会增加持有无息黄金的机会成本，尽管通胀压力不断上升，但收益率进一步上升的前景应该会限制黄金的上涨潜力。瑞士报价（Swissquote）高级分析师伊佩克-奥兹卡德斯卡娅（Ipek Ozkardeskaya）在给客户的一份报告中说：”收益率持续上行的压力可能会使每盎司黄金价格持续低于 1800 美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, gold bulls need to defend that line in the sand, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda 高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚 (Edward Moya) 表示，事实上，黄金多头需要在沙滩上捍卫这条线。</blockquote></p><p> “The Fed’s hawkish pivot is a major buzzkill for gold bulls that could see some momentum selling over the short-term.&nbsp;Short-term Treasury yields will continue to rise and that should provide some underlying support for the dollar, which will keep commodities vulnerable,” Moya told clients in a note.</p><p><blockquote>“美联储的鹰派转向对黄金多头来说是一个重大打击，他们可能会在短期内看到一些抛售势头。莫亚在一份报告中告诉客户：”短期国债收益率将继续上升，这应该会为美元提供一些潜在支撑，这将使大宗商品保持脆弱性。</blockquote></p><p> Silver prices tanked along with gold, with June futures trading down nearly $1.956, or 7%, to $27.75 an ounce. A host of industrial metals prices were also lower on the day, a day after China&nbsp;announced plans&nbsp;to release national reserves of industrial metals to cool soaring commodities prices.</p><p><blockquote>白银价格与黄金价格一起下跌，6 月份期货价格下跌近 1.956 美元，跌幅 7%，至每盎司 27.75 美元。在中国宣布计划释放国家工业金属储备以冷却飙升的大宗商品价格的第二天，许多工业金属价格当天也走低。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-prices-fed-51623923127?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-prices-fed-51623923127?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107055650","content_text":"Duck for cover, gold bulls.\nThat was the message the market seemed to send on Thursday, as the precious metal tumbled $85.70, or 4.6%, to $1,773.80 an ounce, following a curveball from the Federal Reserve.\nOn a continuous contract basis, gold is trading at levels not seen since the end of April. It was the biggest drop since November 2020.\nGold miners also got hit hard. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF(GDX) fell 5% to $34.93, while the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ) dropped 4.7% to $49.02. The S&P 500 finished the day little changed, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, and theNasdaq Compositerose 0.9%.\nWhile the central bank held policy steady, it also signaled faster and sooner interest rate increases, with its forecast suggesting two increases in 2023. And the Fed increased its inflation forecasts for this year and next.\nRecent data showing surging prices had led many to believe the Fed would at least begin early discussions about reining in some of its ultra-accommodative policy aimed at cushioning the economy from the Covid-19 pandemic. But the outcome was far more hawkish than some expected.\nGold for August delivery settled slightly higher at $1,861.40 on Wednesday, but began to fall in electronic trading after the Fed announcement and kept going. That is as Treasury yields climbed across the board—the yield on the two-year note was hovering the highest level in a year—and the dollar surged.\n“Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold, and prospects of a further rise in yields should cap the upside potential in the yellow metal despite the rising inflationary pressures. A sustained positive pressure on yields could send the price of an ounce sustainably below the $1800 level,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, in a note to clients.\nIndeed, gold bulls need to defend that line in the sand, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.\n“The Fed’s hawkish pivot is a major buzzkill for gold bulls that could see some momentum selling over the short-term. Short-term Treasury yields will continue to rise and that should provide some underlying support for the dollar, which will keep commodities vulnerable,” Moya told clients in a note.\nSilver prices tanked along with gold, with June futures trading down nearly $1.956, or 7%, to $27.75 an ounce. A host of industrial metals prices were also lower on the day, a day after China announced plans to release national reserves of industrial metals to cool soaring commodities prices.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GCmain":0.9,"GOLDmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110047490,"gmtCreate":1622419278410,"gmtModify":1634101735743,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"AMD [Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"AMD [Cool]&nbsp;","text":"AMD [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110047490","repostId":"1143634909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":709,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196711943,"gmtCreate":1621121902882,"gmtModify":1634193995480,"author":{"id":"3571108991612603","authorId":"3571108991612603","name":"IchiGo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7799d84b640de8d882c175fa85737b5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571108991612603","idStr":"3571108991612603"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Now his comments&nbsp;shake the market!","listText":"Now his comments&nbsp;shake the market!","text":"Now his comments shake the market!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196711943","repostId":"2135989862","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}