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814f811

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2021-07-19

yes

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>

2021-04-15

🔥🔥🔥

2021-07-20

yes

Virgin Galactic fell over 7% in morning trading<blockquote>维珍银河早盘下跌超过 7%</blockquote>

2021-06-18

lets go

NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来赢了</blockquote>

2021-06-23

lets go

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-07

like pls

U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>美国 IPO 前一周：数字支付、心理健康服务等多元化 8 IPO</blockquote>

2021-04-21

😶😶😶

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-14

🚀🚀🚀//@NJHJ: to the moon

Hong Kong: Stocks open higher<blockquote>香港：股市高开</blockquote>

2021-08-05

more money for us to earn

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-13

nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

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money for us to earn","listText":"more money for us to earn","text":"more money for us to earn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899618402","repostId":"1158295123","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899690588,"gmtCreate":1628176381144,"gmtModify":1633752887622,"author":{"id":"3571293257474839","authorId":"3571293257474839","name":"814f811","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571293257474839","authorIdStr":"3571293257474839"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12e09580f7df1b6a866f8f4b5bdfe1a3","width":"1080","height":"3199"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899690588","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890935255,"gmtCreate":1628074828377,"gmtModify":1633753859063,"author":{"id":"3571293257474839","authorId":"3571293257474839","name":"814f811","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571293257474839","authorIdStr":"3571293257474839"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c55d40b84ec80134e83e576971a2b8f","width":"1080","height":"2388"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890935255","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801002743,"gmtCreate":1627470024082,"gmtModify":1633764716177,"author":{"id":"3571293257474839","authorId":"3571293257474839","name":"814f811","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571293257474839","authorIdStr":"3571293257474839"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"people are going to sell the news so dropping","listText":"people are going to sell the news so dropping","text":"people are going to sell the news so dropping","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801002743","repostId":"2154230229","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2154230229","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1627469177,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2154230229?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 18:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pfizer Q2 Adj. EPS $1.07 Beats $0.96 Estimate, Sales $19.00B Beat $18.45B Estimate<blockquote>辉瑞第二季度调整后。每股收益 $1.07 超出预期 $0.96，销售额 $19.00B 超出预期 $18.45B</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2154230229","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) reported quarterly earnings of $1.07 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $0.96 by 11.46 percent. This is a 37.18 percent increase over earnings of $0.78 per share from the same period","content":"<p><html><body>Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) reported quarterly earnings of $1.07 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $0.96 by 11.46 percent. This is a 37.18 percent increase over earnings of $0.78 per share from the same period last year.  The company reported quarterly sales of $19.00 billion which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $18.45 billion by 2.98 percent.  This is a 61.00 percent increase over sales of $11.80 billion the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote><html><body>辉瑞（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PFE）公布的季度收益为每股 1.07 美元，比分析师普遍预期的 0.96 美元高出 11.46%。这比去年同期每股收益 0.78 美元增长了 37.18%。该公司公布季度销售额为 19.00 亿美元，比分析师普遍预期的 184.5 亿美元高出 2.98%。这比去年同期 118 亿美元的销售额增长了 61.00%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pfizer Q2 Adj. EPS $1.07 Beats $0.96 Estimate, Sales $19.00B Beat $18.45B Estimate<blockquote>辉瑞第二季度调整后。每股收益 $1.07 超出预期 $0.96，销售额 $19.00B 超出预期 $18.45B</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPfizer Q2 Adj. EPS $1.07 Beats $0.96 Estimate, Sales $19.00B Beat $18.45B Estimate<blockquote>辉瑞第二季度调整后。每股收益 $1.07 超出预期 $0.96，销售额 $19.00B 超出预期 $18.45B</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-28 18:46</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) reported quarterly earnings of $1.07 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $0.96 by 11.46 percent. This is a 37.18 percent increase over earnings of $0.78 per share from the same period last year.  The company reported quarterly sales of $19.00 billion which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $18.45 billion by 2.98 percent.  This is a 61.00 percent increase over sales of $11.80 billion the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote><html><body>辉瑞（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PFE）公布的季度收益为每股 1.07 美元，比分析师普遍预期的 0.96 美元高出 11.46%。这比去年同期每股收益 0.78 美元增长了 37.18%。该公司公布季度销售额为 19.00 亿美元，比分析师普遍预期的 184.5 亿美元高出 2.98%。这比去年同期 118 亿美元的销售额增长了 61.00%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞","QTWO":"Q2 Holdings Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/07/22191860/pfizer-q2-adj-eps-1-07-beats-0-96-estimate-sales-19-00b-beat-18-45b-estimate","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2154230229","content_text":"Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) reported quarterly earnings of $1.07 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $0.96 by 11.46 percent. This is a 37.18 percent increase over earnings of $0.78 per share from the same period last year.  The company reported quarterly sales of $19.00 billion which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $18.45 billion by 2.98 percent.  This is a 61.00 percent increase over sales of $11.80 billion the same period last year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":1,"QTWO":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172505714,"gmtCreate":1626964824738,"gmtModify":1633769296701,"author":{"id":"3571293257474839","authorId":"3571293257474839","name":"814f811","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571293257474839","authorIdStr":"3571293257474839"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0c5e4600a303fde2e8999a1b10533e0","width":"1080","height":"3058"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172505714","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178341593,"gmtCreate":1626789495912,"gmtModify":1633771020673,"author":{"id":"3571293257474839","authorId":"3571293257474839","name":"814f811","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571293257474839","authorIdStr":"3571293257474839"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178341593","repostId":"1182166123","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":911,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178341863,"gmtCreate":1626789485252,"gmtModify":1633771020898,"author":{"id":"3571293257474839","authorId":"3571293257474839","name":"814f811","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571293257474839","authorIdStr":"3571293257474839"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fee4053d6061cd0ec5a0c490ebe7bef0","width":"1080","height":"3058"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178341863","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171358179,"gmtCreate":1626707771991,"gmtModify":1633924733180,"author":{"id":"3571293257474839","authorId":"3571293257474839","name":"814f811","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571293257474839","authorIdStr":"3571293257474839"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8b5236dc9fe1e625139d393a62b3c5","width":"1080","height":"3058"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171358179","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171358919,"gmtCreate":1626707753631,"gmtModify":1633924733300,"author":{"id":"3571293257474839","authorId":"3571293257474839","name":"814f811","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571293257474839","authorIdStr":"3571293257474839"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171358919","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为本轮经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到了市场的激烈争论。每一个都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情创造了有记录以来产出最急剧下降的一次。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种剧烈的下跌和上涨从来不允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场上的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得平滑和打磨。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机告终。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言表的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么要使用 “周期 ”这个词。经济和市场倾向于遵循周期性模式，这种模式往往会出现在市场表现中。我们关心的是这些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的经济衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等后期周期条件？确实如此。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否与市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏相匹配？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是通常的早期周期赢家吗，比如小盘股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者像这些事情实际上一样正常。如果到目前为止已经出现了很多“正常”的循环行为，它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏进展，这些模式应该会改变。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊 (Michael Wilson) 指出的那样，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅 16 个月。我们看到当前情况与 2004 年上半年有许多相似之处，上半年是继大规模通货膨胀反弹之后的中期周期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（参见2021年7月11日的增长恐慌周年纪念日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为总能找到适合自己特定周期观点的指标，所以我们一直都喜欢复合指标。这就是我们的 “周期模型”，它结合了宏观经济、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十项美国指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在 2019 年 6 月进入周期后期 “低迷 ”和 2020 年 4 月进入周期早期 “修复 ”之后，该指数一路飙升。<b>它的崛起如此之快，以至于刚刚度过了下一阶段（'复苏'），直接进入了'扩张'。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>不寻常的论文。“扩展 ”意味着捕捉 “比正常情况更好，并且正在改善 ”的条件、<b>自1980年以来，“经济衰退”结束后平均需要35个月才能到达那里</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这就是我们的论点，也体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，相对于其他风险资产，信贷越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次经济衰退提前，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多供应</b>.在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY信贷N1200万超额回报率分别比平均水平差29bp和161bp。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现更加喜忧参半</b>投资者应尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信贷策略师喜欢持有 CDX HY 0-15%，并用 CDX IG 付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合的更大平衡</b>我们喜欢美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为它有几个有利的因素：质量、低估值、高套利和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往表现优于“周期中期”，我们认为它们可以再次做到这一点。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉的收益率比平均水平低97个基点</b>. Guneet Dhingra 和我们的美国利率策略团队已将跑输大盘美国 10 年期国债移至我们的全球资产配置中，我们反过来又将跑输大盘国债移回。</li></ul>这个周期是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为本轮经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到了市场的激烈争论。每一个都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情创造了有记录以来产出最急剧下降的一次。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种剧烈的下跌和上涨从来不允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场上的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得平滑和打磨。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机告终。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言表的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么要使用 “周期 ”这个词。经济和市场倾向于遵循周期性模式，这种模式往往会出现在市场表现中。我们关心的是这些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的经济衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等后期周期条件？确实如此。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否与市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏相匹配？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是通常的早期周期赢家吗，比如小盘股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者像这些事情实际上一样正常。如果到目前为止已经出现了很多“正常”的循环行为，它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏进展，这些模式应该会改变。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊 (Michael Wilson) 指出的那样，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅 16 个月。我们看到当前情况与 2004 年上半年有许多相似之处，上半年是继大规模通货膨胀反弹之后的中期周期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（参见2021年7月11日的增长恐慌周年纪念日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为总能找到适合自己特定周期观点的指标，所以我们一直都喜欢复合指标。这就是我们的 “周期模型”，它结合了宏观经济、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十项美国指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在 2019 年 6 月进入周期后期 “低迷 ”和 2020 年 4 月进入周期早期 “修复 ”之后，该指数一路飙升。<b>它的崛起如此之快，以至于刚刚度过了下一阶段（'复苏'），直接进入了'扩张'。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>不寻常的论文。“扩展 ”意味着捕捉 “比正常情况更好，并且正在改善 ”的条件、<b>自1980年以来，“经济衰退”结束后平均需要35个月才能到达那里</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这就是我们的论点，也体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，相对于其他风险资产，信贷越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次经济衰退提前，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多供应</b>.在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY信贷N1200万超额回报率分别比平均水平差29bp和161bp。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现更加喜忧参半</b>投资者应尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信贷策略师喜欢持有 CDX HY 0-15%，并用 CDX IG 付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合的更大平衡</b>我们喜欢美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为它有几个有利的因素：质量、低估值、高套利和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往表现优于“周期中期”，我们认为它们可以再次做到这一点。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉的收益率比平均水平低97个基点</b>. Guneet Dhingra 和我们的美国利率策略团队已将跑输大盘美国 10 年期国债移至我们的全球资产配置中，我们反过来又将跑输大盘国债移回。</li></ul>这个周期是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. 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Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为本轮经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到了市场的激烈争论。每一个都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情创造了有记录以来产出最急剧下降的一次。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种剧烈的下跌和上涨从来不允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场上的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得平滑和打磨。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机告终。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言表的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么要使用 “周期 ”这个词。经济和市场倾向于遵循周期性模式，这种模式往往会出现在市场表现中。我们关心的是这些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的经济衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等后期周期条件？确实如此。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否与市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏相匹配？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是通常的早期周期赢家吗，比如小盘股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者像这些事情实际上一样正常。如果到目前为止已经出现了很多“正常”的循环行为，它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏进展，这些模式应该会改变。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊 (Michael Wilson) 指出的那样，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅 16 个月。我们看到当前情况与 2004 年上半年有许多相似之处，上半年是继大规模通货膨胀反弹之后的中期周期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（参见2021年7月11日的增长恐慌周年纪念日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为总能找到适合自己特定周期观点的指标，所以我们一直都喜欢复合指标。这就是我们的 “周期模型”，它结合了宏观经济、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十项美国指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在 2019 年 6 月进入周期后期 “低迷 ”和 2020 年 4 月进入周期早期 “修复 ”之后，该指数一路飙升。<b>它的崛起如此之快，以至于刚刚度过了下一阶段（'复苏'），直接进入了'扩张'。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>不寻常的论文。“扩展 ”意味着捕捉 “比正常情况更好，并且正在改善 ”的条件、<b>自1980年以来，“经济衰退”结束后平均需要35个月才能到达那里</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这就是我们的论点，也体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，相对于其他风险资产，信贷越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次经济衰退提前，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多供应</b>.在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY信贷N1200万超额回报率分别比平均水平差29bp和161bp。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现更加喜忧参半</b>投资者应尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信贷策略师喜欢持有 CDX HY 0-15%，并用 CDX IG 付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合的更大平衡</b>我们喜欢美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为它有几个有利的因素：质量、低估值、高套利和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往表现优于“周期中期”，我们认为它们可以再次做到这一点。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉的收益率比平均水平低97个基点</b>. Guneet Dhingra 和我们的美国利率策略团队已将跑输大盘美国 10 年期国债移至我们的全球资产配置中，我们反过来又将跑输大盘国债移回。</li></ul>这个周期是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为本轮经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到了市场的激烈争论。每一个都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情创造了有记录以来产出最急剧下降的一次。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种剧烈的下跌和上涨从来不允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场上的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得平滑和打磨。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机告终。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言表的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么要使用 “周期 ”这个词。经济和市场倾向于遵循周期性模式，这种模式往往会出现在市场表现中。我们关心的是这些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的经济衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等后期周期条件？确实如此。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否与市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏相匹配？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是通常的早期周期赢家吗，比如小盘股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者像这些事情实际上一样正常。如果到目前为止已经出现了很多“正常”的循环行为，它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏进展，这些模式应该会改变。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊 (Michael Wilson) 指出的那样，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅 16 个月。我们看到当前情况与 2004 年上半年有许多相似之处，上半年是继大规模通货膨胀反弹之后的中期周期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（参见2021年7月11日的增长恐慌周年纪念日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为总能找到适合自己特定周期观点的指标，所以我们一直都喜欢复合指标。这就是我们的 “周期模型”，它结合了宏观经济、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十项美国指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在 2019 年 6 月进入周期后期 “低迷 ”和 2020 年 4 月进入周期早期 “修复 ”之后，该指数一路飙升。<b>它的崛起如此之快，以至于刚刚度过了下一阶段（'复苏'），直接进入了'扩张'。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>不寻常的论文。“扩展 ”意味着捕捉 “比正常情况更好，并且正在改善 ”的条件、<b>自1980年以来，“经济衰退”结束后平均需要35个月才能到达那里</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这就是我们的论点，也体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，相对于其他风险资产，信贷越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次经济衰退提前，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多供应</b>.在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY信贷N1200万超额回报率分别比平均水平差29bp和161bp。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现更加喜忧参半</b>投资者应尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信贷策略师喜欢持有 CDX HY 0-15%，并用 CDX IG 付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合的更大平衡</b>我们喜欢美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为它有几个有利的因素：质量、低估值、高套利和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往表现优于“周期中期”，我们认为它们可以再次做到这一点。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们的周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉的收益率比平均水平低97个基点</b>. Guneet Dhingra 和我们的美国利率策略团队已将跑输大盘美国 10 年期国债移至我们的全球资产配置中，我们反过来又将跑输大盘国债移回。</li></ul>这个周期是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347949449,"gmtCreate":1618459705081,"gmtModify":1634292792027,"author":{"id":"3571293257474839","authorId":"3571293257474839","name":"814f811","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571293257474839","authorIdStr":"3571293257474839"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🔥🔥🔥","listText":"🔥🔥🔥","text":"🔥🔥🔥","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65d91358738a882ff6cef34843145930","width":"1080","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347949449","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178341593,"gmtCreate":1626789495912,"gmtModify":1633771020673,"author":{"id":"3571293257474839","authorId":"3571293257474839","name":"814f811","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571293257474839","authorIdStr":"3571293257474839"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178341593","repostId":"1182166123","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182166123","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626789320,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1182166123?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Virgin Galactic fell over 7% in morning trading<blockquote>维珍银河早盘下跌超过 7%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182166123","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(July 20) Virgin Galactic fell over 7% in morning trading. Minutes ago, Jeff Bezos reaches space on ","content":"<p>(July 20)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">Virgin Galactic</a> fell over 7% in morning trading.&nbsp;Minutes ago, Jeff Bezos reaches space on Blue Origin’s first crewed launch</p><p><blockquote>（7月20日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">维珍银河</a>早盘交易中下跌超过 7%。几分钟前，杰夫·贝索斯乘坐蓝色起源首次载人发射进入太空</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08838544d173bf3e12d08989cc775e1\" tg-width=\"709\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Virgin Galactic fell over 7% in morning trading<blockquote>维珍银河早盘下跌超过 7%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVirgin Galactic fell over 7% in morning trading<blockquote>维珍银河早盘下跌超过 7%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-20 21:55</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 20)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">Virgin Galactic</a> fell over 7% in morning trading.&nbsp;Minutes ago, Jeff Bezos reaches space on Blue Origin’s first crewed launch</p><p><blockquote>（7月20日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">维珍银河</a>早盘交易中下跌超过 7%。几分钟前，杰夫·贝索斯乘坐蓝色起源首次载人发射进入太空</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08838544d173bf3e12d08989cc775e1\" tg-width=\"709\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182166123","content_text":"(July 20) Virgin Galactic fell over 7% in morning trading. Minutes ago, Jeff Bezos reaches space on Blue Origin’s first crewed launch","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":911,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168467285,"gmtCreate":1623981308447,"gmtModify":1634024786470,"author":{"id":"3571293257474839","authorId":"3571293257474839","name":"814f811","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571293257474839","authorIdStr":"3571293257474839"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"lets go","listText":"lets go","text":"lets go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168467285","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148576248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来赢了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比特斯拉快，然而，它的交易价格却打折了。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）以其强大的市场地位——中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长且竞争激烈的电动汽车行业中的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来能够战胜一些激烈的竞争，包括特斯拉（TSLA）。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们还将讨论蔚来汽车的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己的明智决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位在高端SUV细分市场，专注于具有差异化电池战略的智能电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统【NOMI】，与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等不相上下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借 ES8 的巨大成功所带来的安装基础和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了 ES6 和 EC6。最近，该公司推出了其首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>如今，蔚来是4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，市场份额为23%，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）的7%。中国汽车技术研究中心数据。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，它几乎消除了里程焦虑，这是大规模电动汽车采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个换电站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池更换策略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务 [BaaS] 解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约 11,000 美元。由于成本是大规模电动汽车采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来汽车的电池战略似乎非常出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层通过在2016年推出EP9出色地打造了这一品牌。六辆 EP9 已以 250 万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特性和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来通过ES8瞄准大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为它们生产低质量产品的看法作斗争。这与二战后日本企业战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是打破“中国制造”等同于低质量观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固地坚持这种旧观念的投资者将会错过投资世界上有史以来最伟大的品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着得到一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括收费货车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国大陆的客户服务方面声誉不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在通过蔚来之家（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品）进一步突破界限。蔚来围绕汽车构建生活方式的努力似乎正在奏效。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为要想逃离汽车代工厂的竞争战场，唯一的办法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利（赛车）营业利润率远高于 20%，而福特 (F) 和通用汽车 (GM) 则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计 2021 年 EBITDA 为负 2.58 亿美元，2022 年为正 2.06 亿美元。自由现金流预计在2021年为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计 2021 年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到安心，因为该公司在 2020 年退出时拥有 59 亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括 6 亿美元的短期投资，减去约 21 亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及 2021 年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在 2021 年退出时应该拥有超过 40 亿美元的净现金和投资。这是充足的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在 2022 年产生正自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注未来的电动汽车/销售倍数，这是尚未盈利的高速增长公司的典型情况。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为电动汽车/销售额的7至8倍，然后在2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，蔚来汽车的估值在2021年1月飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的远期销售额要合理得多。尽管增长速度是 TSLA 10.2 倍，但这比 TSLA 10.2 倍的电动汽车/销量大幅折扣（TSLA 预计 2021 年收入将增长 57%，而蔚来汽车为 117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来存在许多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其电池更换战略高度差异化，并且似乎正在快速增长，但电池更换或快速充电基础设施的最终市场份额仍然没有定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池更换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式具有创新性和新颖性。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然无利可图。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力提高之前，蔚来仍将是一个“给我看”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车的全球扩张能力可能会受到中美地缘政治紧张局势的限制，以及在较小程度上与日本和欧洲的地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临着严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度不断增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服ICE原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和中国比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其汽车和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也在变得越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于蔚来汽车更快的增长率和较低的市盈率，其股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来赢了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来赢了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比特斯拉快，然而，它的交易价格却打折了。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）以其强大的市场地位——中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长且竞争激烈的电动汽车行业中的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来能够战胜一些激烈的竞争，包括特斯拉（TSLA）。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们还将讨论蔚来汽车的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己的明智决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位在高端SUV细分市场，专注于具有差异化电池战略的智能电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统【NOMI】，与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等不相上下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借 ES8 的巨大成功所带来的安装基础和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了 ES6 和 EC6。最近，该公司推出了其首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>如今，蔚来是4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，市场份额为23%，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）的7%。中国汽车技术研究中心数据。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，它几乎消除了里程焦虑，这是大规模电动汽车采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个换电站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池更换策略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务 [BaaS] 解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约 11,000 美元。由于成本是大规模电动汽车采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来汽车的电池战略似乎非常出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层通过在2016年推出EP9出色地打造了这一品牌。六辆 EP9 已以 250 万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特性和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来通过ES8瞄准大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为它们生产低质量产品的看法作斗争。这与二战后日本企业战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是打破“中国制造”等同于低质量观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固地坚持这种旧观念的投资者将会错过投资世界上有史以来最伟大的品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着得到一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括收费货车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国大陆的客户服务方面声誉不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在通过蔚来之家（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品）进一步突破界限。蔚来围绕汽车构建生活方式的努力似乎正在奏效。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为要想逃离汽车代工厂的竞争战场，唯一的办法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利（赛车）营业利润率远高于 20%，而福特 (F) 和通用汽车 (GM) 则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计 2021 年 EBITDA 为负 2.58 亿美元，2022 年为正 2.06 亿美元。自由现金流预计在2021年为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计 2021 年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到安心，因为该公司在 2020 年退出时拥有 59 亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括 6 亿美元的短期投资，减去约 21 亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及 2021 年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在 2021 年退出时应该拥有超过 40 亿美元的净现金和投资。这是充足的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在 2022 年产生正自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注未来的电动汽车/销售倍数，这是尚未盈利的高速增长公司的典型情况。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为电动汽车/销售额的7至8倍，然后在2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，蔚来汽车的估值在2021年1月飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的远期销售额要合理得多。尽管增长速度是 TSLA 10.2 倍，但这比 TSLA 10.2 倍的电动汽车/销量大幅折扣（TSLA 预计 2021 年收入将增长 57%，而蔚来汽车为 117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来存在许多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其电池更换战略高度差异化，并且似乎正在快速增长，但电池更换或快速充电基础设施的最终市场份额仍然没有定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池更换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式具有创新性和新颖性。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然无利可图。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力提高之前，蔚来仍将是一个“给我看”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车的全球扩张能力可能会受到中美地缘政治紧张局势的限制，以及在较小程度上与日本和欧洲的地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临着严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度不断增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服ICE原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和中国比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其汽车和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也在变得越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于蔚来汽车更快的增长率和较低的市盈率，其股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123829003,"gmtCreate":1624416525602,"gmtModify":1634006412837,"author":{"id":"3571293257474839","authorId":"3571293257474839","name":"814f811","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571293257474839","authorIdStr":"3571293257474839"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"lets go","listText":"lets go","text":"lets go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123829003","repostId":"2145664330","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115210088,"gmtCreate":1622997384244,"gmtModify":1634096336841,"author":{"id":"3571293257474839","authorId":"3571293257474839","name":"814f811","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571293257474839","authorIdStr":"3571293257474839"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like pls","listText":"like pls","text":"like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115210088","repostId":"1106312903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106312903","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622855773,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1106312903?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>美国 IPO 前一周：数字支付、心理健康服务等多元化 8 IPO</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106312903","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental h","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</li>  <li>Payments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.</li>  <li>Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.</li> </ul> Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>目前有八次IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等。</li><li>支付平台 Marqeta 计划以 124 亿美元的市值筹集 10 亿美元。</li><li>中国在线招聘平台看准计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。</li></ul>目前有八次IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等。</blockquote></p><p> Payments platform&nbsp;<b>Marqeta</b>(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.</p><p><blockquote>支付平台<b>市场</b>(MQ) 计划以 124 亿美元的市值筹集 10 亿美元。该公司的平台允许企业启动和管理自己的卡计划，向客户或最终用户发行卡，以及授权和结算交易。Marqeta 发展迅速，其客户中包括 Affirm (AFRM) 和 DoorDash (DASH) 等品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online recruitment platform&nbsp;<b>Kanzhun</b>(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线招聘平台<b>看准</b>(BZ) 计划以 82 亿美元的市值筹集 8.64 亿美元。看准的核心产品BOSS直聘是一个移动原生平台，促进求职者和企业客户之间的直接聊天。该公司声称，根据MAUs，它是2020年中国最大的在线招聘平台。</blockquote></p><p> Mental health services provider&nbsp;<b>LifeStance Health</b>(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>心理健康服务提供者<b>LifeStance健康</b>(LFST) 计划以 61 亿美元的市值筹集 6.4 亿美元。LifeStance表示，它已经建立了美国最大的门诊心理健康平台之一，截至2021年3月31日，在27个州的73个MSA雇佣了3300多名持牌心理健康临床医生。尽管息税前利润在2021年第一季度变为负值，但该公司仍表现出增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israel’s&nbsp;<b>monday.com</b>(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.</p><p><blockquote>以色列的<b>星期一网</b>(MNDY) 计划以 68 亿美元的市值筹集 4.9 亿美元。monday.com允许组织轻松构建适合其需求的软件应用程序和工作管理工具。截至2021年3月31日，它为190多个国家200多个行业的近128,000名客户提供服务。Salesforce 和 Zoom 计划同时投资 1.5 亿美元进行私募。</blockquote></p><p> BPO vendor&nbsp;<b>TaskUs</b>(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>BPO供应商<b>口袋</b>（任务）计划以25亿美元的市值筹集3.04亿美元。TaskUs是一家数字商业服务外包商，提供数字客户体验服务、内容安全服务和人工智能运营。截至2020年12月31日，该公司盈利且增长强劲，拥有100多家客户。</blockquote></p><p> Data-driven marketing platform&nbsp;<b>Zeta Global</b>(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>数据驱动营销平台<b>泽塔全球</b>(ZETA) 计划以 21 亿美元的市值筹集 2.5 亿美元。该公司的 Zeta 营销平台利用身份数据，通过电子邮件、社交媒体、网络、聊天、联网电视、视频和其他渠道锁定、联系和吸引消费者。Zeta 盈利，为 1,000 多名客户提供服务，到 2020 年将提供大约 5 亿次广告展示。</blockquote></p><p> Online luxury goods marketplace&nbsp;<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.</p><p><blockquote>在线奢侈品市场<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) 计划以 7.73 亿美元的市值筹集 1.12 亿美元。1stDibs连接古董、古董和当代家具、家居装饰、珠宝、手表、艺术和时尚的买家和卖家。2020 年，该市场在过去一年中有超过 58,000 名买家进行了购买，平均每年总购买金额超过 5,500 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online tutoring platform&nbsp;<b>Zhangmen Education</b>(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线辅导平台<b>掌门教育</b>(ZME) 计划以 19 亿美元的市值筹集 4300 万美元。掌门教育表示，自2017年以来，按收入计算，它一直是中国最大的在线K-12辅导服务提供商，2020年市场份额为32%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d771f02e44d9d489ff772f1577280332\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"666\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.</p><p><blockquote>预计将对 6 家公司进行街头调查，多达 11 家公司的禁售期将到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年6月3日，文艺复兴IPO指数年初至今下跌6.0%，而标普500上涨11.6%。Renaissance Capital 的 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）追踪该指数，持有量最大的 ETF 包括Zoom Video (ZM) 和优步 (UBER)。Renaissance International IPO 指数今年迄今下跌 1.1%，而 ACWX 指数上涨 10.5%。Renaissance Capital 的国际 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）追踪该指数，持有的 ETF 包括 Nexi 和 EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>美国 IPO 前一周：数字支付、心理健康服务等多元化 8 IPO</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>美国 IPO 前一周：数字支付、心理健康服务等多元化 8 IPO</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</li>  <li>Payments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.</li>  <li>Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.</li> </ul> Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>目前有八次IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等。</li><li>支付平台 Marqeta 计划以 124 亿美元的市值筹集 10 亿美元。</li><li>中国在线招聘平台看准计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。</li></ul>目前有八次IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等。</blockquote></p><p> Payments platform&nbsp;<b>Marqeta</b>(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.</p><p><blockquote>支付平台<b>市场</b>(MQ) 计划以 124 亿美元的市值筹集 10 亿美元。该公司的平台允许企业启动和管理自己的卡计划，向客户或最终用户发行卡，以及授权和结算交易。Marqeta 发展迅速，其客户中包括 Affirm (AFRM) 和 DoorDash (DASH) 等品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online recruitment platform&nbsp;<b>Kanzhun</b>(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线招聘平台<b>看准</b>(BZ) 计划以 82 亿美元的市值筹集 8.64 亿美元。看准的核心产品BOSS直聘是一个移动原生平台，促进求职者和企业客户之间的直接聊天。该公司声称，根据MAUs，它是2020年中国最大的在线招聘平台。</blockquote></p><p> Mental health services provider&nbsp;<b>LifeStance Health</b>(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>心理健康服务提供者<b>LifeStance健康</b>(LFST) 计划以 61 亿美元的市值筹集 6.4 亿美元。LifeStance表示，它已经建立了美国最大的门诊心理健康平台之一，截至2021年3月31日，在27个州的73个MSA雇佣了3300多名持牌心理健康临床医生。尽管息税前利润在2021年第一季度变为负值，但该公司仍表现出增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israel’s&nbsp;<b>monday.com</b>(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.</p><p><blockquote>以色列的<b>星期一网</b>(MNDY) 计划以 68 亿美元的市值筹集 4.9 亿美元。monday.com允许组织轻松构建适合其需求的软件应用程序和工作管理工具。截至2021年3月31日，它为190多个国家200多个行业的近128,000名客户提供服务。Salesforce 和 Zoom 计划同时投资 1.5 亿美元进行私募。</blockquote></p><p> BPO vendor&nbsp;<b>TaskUs</b>(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>BPO供应商<b>口袋</b>（任务）计划以25亿美元的市值筹集3.04亿美元。TaskUs是一家数字商业服务外包商，提供数字客户体验服务、内容安全服务和人工智能运营。截至2020年12月31日，该公司盈利且增长强劲，拥有100多家客户。</blockquote></p><p> Data-driven marketing platform&nbsp;<b>Zeta Global</b>(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>数据驱动营销平台<b>泽塔全球</b>(ZETA) 计划以 21 亿美元的市值筹集 2.5 亿美元。该公司的 Zeta 营销平台利用身份数据，通过电子邮件、社交媒体、网络、聊天、联网电视、视频和其他渠道锁定、联系和吸引消费者。Zeta 盈利，为 1,000 多名客户提供服务，到 2020 年将提供大约 5 亿次广告展示。</blockquote></p><p> Online luxury goods marketplace&nbsp;<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.</p><p><blockquote>在线奢侈品市场<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) 计划以 7.73 亿美元的市值筹集 1.12 亿美元。1stDibs连接古董、古董和当代家具、家居装饰、珠宝、手表、艺术和时尚的买家和卖家。2020 年，该市场在过去一年中有超过 58,000 名买家进行了购买，平均每年总购买金额超过 5,500 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online tutoring platform&nbsp;<b>Zhangmen Education</b>(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线辅导平台<b>掌门教育</b>(ZME) 计划以 19 亿美元的市值筹集 4300 万美元。掌门教育表示，自2017年以来，按收入计算，它一直是中国最大的在线K-12辅导服务提供商，2020年市场份额为32%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d771f02e44d9d489ff772f1577280332\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"666\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.</p><p><blockquote>预计将对 6 家公司进行街头调查，多达 11 家公司的禁售期将到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年6月3日，文艺复兴IPO指数年初至今下跌6.0%，而标普500上涨11.6%。Renaissance Capital 的 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）追踪该指数，持有量最大的 ETF 包括Zoom Video (ZM) 和优步 (UBER)。Renaissance International IPO 指数今年迄今下跌 1.1%，而 ACWX 指数上涨 10.5%。Renaissance Capital 的国际 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）追踪该指数，持有的 ETF 包括 Nexi 和 EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BZ":"BOSS直聘",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MNDY":"Monday.com Ltd.","ZME":"掌门教育","DIBS":"1stdibs.com Inc.","LFST":"LifeStance Health Group, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","MQ":"Marqeta, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","ZETA":"Zeta Global Holdings Corp.","TASK":"TaskUs Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106312903","content_text":"Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.\nChinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.\nChinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.\nMental health services provider LifeStance Health(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.\nIsrael’s monday.com(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.\nBPO vendor TaskUs(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.\nData-driven marketing platform Zeta Global(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.\nOnline luxury goods marketplace 1stDibs(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.\nChinese online tutoring platform Zhangmen Education(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.\n\nStreet research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIBS":0.9,"TASK":0.9,"ZETA":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZME":0.9,"LFST":0.9,"MQ":0.9,"BZ":0.9,"MNDY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371775122,"gmtCreate":1618976194866,"gmtModify":1634289469266,"author":{"id":"3571293257474839","authorId":"3571293257474839","name":"814f811","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571293257474839","authorIdStr":"3571293257474839"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😶😶😶","listText":"😶😶😶","text":"😶😶😶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371775122","repostId":"1193736432","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344904348,"gmtCreate":1618364448784,"gmtModify":1634293458026,"author":{"id":"3571293257474839","authorId":"3571293257474839","name":"814f811","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571293257474839","authorIdStr":"3571293257474839"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3571293257474839\">@NJHJ</a>: to the moon","listText":"🚀🚀🚀//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3571293257474839\">@NJHJ</a>: to the moon","text":"🚀🚀🚀//@NJHJ: to the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344904348","repostId":"1121338137","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121338137","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617759580,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121338137?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-07 09:39","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong: Stocks open higher<blockquote>香港：股市高开</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121338137","media":"AFP","summary":"[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks started with a rise Wednesday morning as investors returned from a holi","content":"<p>[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks started with a rise Wednesday morning as investors returned from a holiday break and extended a rally from the end of last week.</p><p><blockquote>【香港】香港股市周三上午开盘上涨，投资者结束假期返回，延续了上周末的涨势。</blockquote></p><p>The Hang Seng Index gained 0.56 per cent or 162.66 points to 20,101.40.</p><p><blockquote>恒生指数上涨0.56%，即162.66点，至20,101.40点。</blockquote></p><p>The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index inched up 0.45 point to 3,483.42, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange ticked up 0.08 per cent or 1.82 points to 2,268.02.</p><p><blockquote>基准上证综指小幅上涨0.45点至3,483.42点，而中国第二大交易所深圳综合指数上涨0.08%或1.82点至2,268.02点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1605843958005","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong: Stocks open higher<blockquote>香港：股市高开</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong: Stocks open higher<blockquote>香港：股市高开</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">AFP</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-07 09:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks started with a rise Wednesday morning as investors returned from a holiday break and extended a rally from the end of last week.</p><p><blockquote>【香港】香港股市周三上午开盘上涨，投资者结束假期返回，延续了上周末的涨势。</blockquote></p><p>The Hang Seng Index gained 0.56 per cent or 162.66 points to 20,101.40.</p><p><blockquote>恒生指数上涨0.56%，即162.66点，至20,101.40点。</blockquote></p><p>The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index inched up 0.45 point to 3,483.42, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange ticked up 0.08 per cent or 1.82 points to 2,268.02.</p><p><blockquote>基准上证综指小幅上涨0.45点至3,483.42点，而中国第二大交易所深圳综合指数上涨0.08%或1.82点至2,268.02点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/hong-kong-stocks-open-higher-26\">AFP</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/hong-kong-stocks-open-higher-26","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121338137","content_text":"[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks started with a rise Wednesday morning as investors returned from a holiday break and extended a rally from the end of last week.The Hang Seng Index gained 0.56 per cent or 162.66 points to 20,101.40.The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index inched up 0.45 point to 3,483.42, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange ticked up 0.08 per cent or 1.82 points to 2,268.02.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899618402,"gmtCreate":1628177510106,"gmtModify":1633752870807,"author":{"id":"3571293257474839","authorId":"3571293257474839","name":"814f811","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571293257474839","authorIdStr":"3571293257474839"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"more money for us to earn","listText":"more money for us to earn","text":"more money for us to earn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899618402","repostId":"1158295123","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182234194,"gmtCreate":1623576319818,"gmtModify":1634031478662,"author":{"id":"3571293257474839","authorId":"3571293257474839","name":"814f811","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571293257474839","authorIdStr":"3571293257474839"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182234194","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}