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2021-08-26

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$like pls

2021-07-13

Nice and like pls

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-25

Like and comment. Thanks.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-28

Like and comment pls

Tesla Lands A Massive Deal And Breaks $1 Trillion: Are Shares A Buy?

2021-04-09

Please like and comment. Thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-05

Comment

Here’s the $4.5 trillion ‘firepower’ that will drive stocks higher in April, says top strategist

2021-11-18

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$[微笑]

2021-04-27

$Microvision(MVIS)$from losing to $10 and now $28

2021-11-25

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Hihi to those still looking at US stocks market even when it's closed.

2021-11-17

$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$bubble popped[心碎]

2021-08-12

$Li Auto Inc.(02015)$keep?

2021-04-23

$Microvision(MVIS)$wow didnt expect so fast

2021-04-13

Don't like that.. all ev will go up ok?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-05

Like and comment

Gold Is Due for a Comeback. Barrick Is a Good Way to Play It.

2021-11-08

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$like pls

2021-11-05

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$will this go lower?

2021-08-24

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$like pls

2021-04-20

Like and comment please.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-08

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-10

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$I wonder those who sell.. how are you going to catch up with that speed of changes..

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Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$bubble popped[心碎]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878809572","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847755124,"gmtCreate":1636555701205,"gmtModify":1636556782941,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>I wonder those who sell.. how are you going to catch up with that speed of changes..","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>I wonder those who sell.. how are you going to catch up with that speed of 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up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848188330","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841416546,"gmtCreate":1635933528752,"gmtModify":1635933528863,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>[摊手]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>[摊手]&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$[摊手]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7bb49a7f33dc29d7554f5489023465","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841416546","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843530121,"gmtCreate":1635840252756,"gmtModify":1635840279092,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>1180","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>1180","text":"$Tesla 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>roaring","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>roaring","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$roaring","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d97c806fddd3b9cda0d330b015ffa68","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843162581","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855737076,"gmtCreate":1635400166761,"gmtModify":1635400166814,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855737076","repostId":"1127302287","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1127302287","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635399924,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127302287?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-28 13:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Lands A Massive Deal And Breaks $1 Trillion: Are Shares A Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127302287","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla added nearly $200 billion to its valuation this week following good earnings and an ~","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla added nearly $200 billion to its valuation this week following good earnings and an ~$4.2 billion deal for 100K vehicles from Hertz.</li>\n <li>The current growth trajectory and projected long-term growth offer massive potential in deliveries and revenues, but the risk-reward picture is weaker.</li>\n <li>Forecasting a mutual outcome of $400 billion in revenues and 20 million units would likely lead to very low ASPs.</li>\n <li>Long-term sustenance of the current multiple profile is countered by multiple risks including market share and competition, and industry-wide multiple re-rating.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f0cfebc83d76c5cc8908a766201917d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1000\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>Tesla (TSLA) broke the $1,000 barrier, taking the company to the trillion club on a multi-day rally following the company reporting earnings above consensus and a massive multi-billion dollar deal with Hertz (OTCPK:HTZZ). Tesla continues to grow rapidly even at its size, with&nbsp;deliveries&nbsp;rising ~20% q/q to 241,300 units for Q3. Tesla is offering very attractive growth rates at a scale much larger than EV peers, and as such is one of the hottest names on Wall Street. Trading volumes breached 60 million, more than double Tesla's 10-day average, with dollar volume over $60 billion. Although a substantial portion of these could be quick trades to capitalize on a &gt;12% move on the day, Tesla has been a gift that keeps on giving, and ultimately, it's possible to get stuck buying at a short-term top, much like in January. Even with a multi-quarter string of revenue and delivery boosts from the deal, the risk-reward outlook to buying at the moment is not highly convincing - while it's not necessarily a good idea to bet against Tesla, it does not seem to be the best time to buy.</p>\n<p><b>A Hertz Fleet Deal</b></p>\n<p>The Hertz deal shows that the demand for large-volume fleet EV exists, with the rental car operator putting in an order worth over 20% of its fleet size for Tesla's vehicles. With the order, Hertz will offer the largest EV in the country.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e286a4ee0a7807efc3b113fc7120d2a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"853\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Graphic from Hertz</span></p>\n<p>Hertz is jumping behind \"rising global demand and interest\" for EV as the vehicles become more \"mainstream,\" choosing to invest $4.2 billion for Tesla vehicles over the next fourteen months, with the first deliveries and availabilities expected to commence in November.</p>\n<p>Because EV rely on public charging infrastructure, which can be limited or harder to find than gas stations, Hertz will be \"installing thousands of chargers throughout its location network,\" adding to the 3,000 supercharging network available via Tesla. In addition, Hertz's app will provide \"digitized guidance to educate customers about the electric vehicle to get them on their way quickly, and coming soon, an expedited EV rental booking process.\" Customers booking vehicles will have to know how to use certain features like Autopilot, FSD or controlling the car through the app.</p>\n<p>Hertz did recently emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy earlier this summer, and while some questions are raised about the exact funding for a deal of this size will come from given $3.0 billion in total liquidity, operating&nbsp;metrics&nbsp;have improved dramatically and rival 2019's pre-pandemic levels. Although revenues were ~11% lower than 2019, vehicle utilization sat at 78%, 3 percentage points behind as RPD and RPU increased significantly as prices rose. Compared to 2019 for Q2, Hertz saw RPD 53% higher to above $65 and RPU per month 48% higher to $1,557 - more expensive pricing of rental cars due to high demand and insufficient supply did aid these metrics, yet utilization rates reflect a strong rebound in the industry.</p>\n<p>For Tesla, the deal with Hertz not only signifies a large bump to revenues and deliveries through fiscal 2022 but a broader trend towards large-scale fleet acceptance in ride renting/sharing/hailing. 100,000 units represent close to 12% of Tesla's current TTM volume and about 7% of projected deliveries and revenues for FY22. It's a substantial contribution from a single customer, but it provides a bright outlook into the future of EV in ride hailing/renting - the adoption curve could come quicker than anticipated.</p>\n<p>In the broader industry, Uber (UBER) is working with multiple different players, including Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF), Arrival (ARVL) and TotalEnergies (TTE) to accelerate EV adoption while Waymo (GOOGL) and Cruise (GM) are working towards self-driving robotaxi services, which still could be years away from large-scale operations. EV can fill parts of that void, with Tesla having the necessary capacity to produce hundreds of thousands of units for fleet operators with GF Shanghai, Berlin and Texas all ramping to scale and building new capacity.</p>\n<p><b>Continuing Along the Growth Trajectory</b></p>\n<p>Tesla's Q3 results speak for themselves, with the company firing on all cylinders as performance metrics across the board reached new highs.</p>\n<p>The company saw its \"best-ever net income, operating profit and gross profit,\" with operating margins higher than expected, operating cash flow reaching a record, its highest production levels at Fremont, and strong growth in multiple metrics. Auto revenues rose 58% y/y and 18% q/q, slightly lagging deliveries' ~20% q/q growth as ASPs slipped 6% y/y. Higher contribution from China likely was a large factor in the ASP decline, as well as in the uptick in deliveries, with the region reportedly accounting for 133,238 vehicles during the quarter, or 55.2%; this came in higher than predicted as ASPs trended lower. That figure is 6.3 percentage points higher than Q2, with September's ~56,000 units delivered and exported a whopping 70% higher than June.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4f9c664d1a45c750aac76ffc372b2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"732\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Graphic from Tesla</span></p>\n<p>Deliveries have started to hit a hyper-growth trajectory over the trailing four quarters, with growth emerging in Q3 2020. Since then, Tesla has nearly doubled deliveries, a much faster rate than pre-pandemic growth as EV adoption and capacity increases. At the moment, Tesla's annual capacity is close to 1.1 million, or nearly 40% higher than TTM deliveries, giving the company much more room to grow ahead of completion in Berlin and Texas.</p>\n<p><b>Hard To Buy Here</b></p>\n<p>Even with growth rates and operating metrics impressing across the board, it's hard to chalk out a positive risk-reward outlook after shares ran higher this week - the earnings and $4.2 billion Hertz deal added at one point nearly $200 billion to Tesla's valuation, or close to $175 billion at the high in just the two days since the deal was announced. Are the new synergies from the deal and/or earnings good enough to support buying a company worth over 15% more following that announcement? Here, that does not look to be the case.</p>\n<p>Over the short-term, such frenzied trading and rapid, high percentage rallies are typically very short-lived - Tesla's last pre-split rally to $900 in early 2020 saw the stock shed 20% in under a week, and a strong rally to nearly $900 post-split in early 2021 saw shares hold for a month after a 10% drop before shedding another 35% through March. Short-term trades can pay off, but from a long-term standpoint, the outlook is bright, but the return potential, not as much.</p>\n<p>Tesla projects that it can drive long-term average annual growth of 50% in deliveries, which, from 900,000 deliveries possible for FY21, would see Tesla doing about 4.5 million vehicles per year in 2025. Extending that growth rate further to 2030 would see Tesla delivering 34 million vehicles, or half of global automotive volumes from 2020; this seems to be a very unrealistic scenario, even as Tesla stated that the goal is to have 20 million deliveries by then. To reach that figure, Tesla would have to grow at about 35% annual from 2025's projected figure. All in all, 2025's deliveries could be close to 5% of total global automotive sales volumes while 2030's could be near 20%. Given the competition in the industry, it's hard to see Tesla driving that much market share alone and beating out competition by that far of a margin - even Apple (AAPL) only commands near 15% market share in smartphones, where it's widely seen among the top three in the industry.</p>\n<p>With that forecast, Tesla is also seeing a path to $400 billion in revenues - this would assume that revenue growth slows much faster y/y than deliveries - driving deliveries to 20 million requires 5 years of ~33% average annual growth following 4 years of 50% annual growth while revenues would grow for 5 years at ~20% average annual growth for 5 years following 4 years of 34% average annual growth.</p>\n<p>To hit both of those figures, revenues at $400 billion on deliveries of 20 million, Tesla would have to cut its ASPs significantly, down to $25,000 by 2027 and ~$16,500 by 2029, assuming growth rates in energy storage and other aspects of the business continue. Tesla does envision itself in most major spaces - small/mid/large SUV, sedan/trucks, as well as in affordable &lt;$25,000 models and robotaxis; however, those most likely wouldn't amount to a sub $20,000 ASP, meaning that there are some substantial doubts raised about the feasibility of both targets occurring mutually by 2030. The other possibility that is not included here is that Tesla does not sell a robotaxi fleet but rather manages a multi-million unit fleet itself, therefore having a fair proportion of targeted 2030 volumes not reflected in ASPs.</p>\n<p>Should Tesla be overshooting the delivery figures, revenues are likely very misguided; but should Tesla in fact be correct in targeting 20 million vehicles through multiple market opportunities, revenues could be completely sandbagging that potential. Time will tell in this regard.</p>\n<p>Back to market share - Tesla would likely be seeing around the high-teens to 20% of global automotive volumes by 2030 based ontrendswithin the industry. Yet it's hard to see Tesla achieving and maintaining such a stronghold as startups like XPeng (XPEV) and NIO (NIO) challenge it heavily on price and tech (though both are primarily confined to China geographically still) while ICE leaders are aggressively pushing to EV. Therefore, it's possible that the EV industry will remain fragmented and Tesla will not be able to hold a monopolistic grip on the sector, where it dominates volumes and dictates the industry. The company has just north of 4% total market share, and with competition heating up rapidly, the only scenario to see market share gains possibly reach that degree would be if production capacities reach that 15 million and remain over 50% higher than peers' EV manufacturing capabilities.</p>\n<p>In the long-term picture, the broader outlook is that EV will become the new norm, with manufacturers agreeing to work towards 40% to 50% volumes in EV. The overall goal still looks to be an EV-dominant or even full-EV future. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to hit the roads by 2030, greatly increasing the selection to consumers and overall supply volume of the vehicle type. With ICE vehicles as the old 'gold standard' and EV expected to become the 'new', ultimately the valuation premiums for industry disruption and tech are likely to fade and reflect similar multiples to the ICE cohort - at that time, in the long run, a majority of manufacturers will likely all be competing in the same vehicle type, with similar specs and technology. Although Tesla has been ahead of the curve, peers are catching up, and losing a disruption multiple from competitive/market share pressures and lower revenue growth rates, and valuations in the industry falling similar to what ICE manufacturers have experienced, the current 'gold standard' could see fair value at 3x sales and 21x earnings (14% net margin on $400 billion revenues), providing just an ample ~20% upside. Tesla does offer very attractive growth rates and sometimes unpredictable potential, but there's likely to be much better buying opportunities in the future as the risk-reward picture looks unfavorable at the moment.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Lands A Massive Deal And Breaks $1 Trillion: Are Shares A Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Lands A Massive Deal And Breaks $1 Trillion: Are Shares A Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-28 13:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4462564-tesla-tsla-massive-deal-breaks-1-trillion-shares-buy><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla added nearly $200 billion to its valuation this week following good earnings and an ~$4.2 billion deal for 100K vehicles from Hertz.\nThe current growth trajectory and projected long-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4462564-tesla-tsla-massive-deal-breaks-1-trillion-shares-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4462564-tesla-tsla-massive-deal-breaks-1-trillion-shares-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127302287","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla added nearly $200 billion to its valuation this week following good earnings and an ~$4.2 billion deal for 100K vehicles from Hertz.\nThe current growth trajectory and projected long-term growth offer massive potential in deliveries and revenues, but the risk-reward picture is weaker.\nForecasting a mutual outcome of $400 billion in revenues and 20 million units would likely lead to very low ASPs.\nLong-term sustenance of the current multiple profile is countered by multiple risks including market share and competition, and industry-wide multiple re-rating.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nTesla (TSLA) broke the $1,000 barrier, taking the company to the trillion club on a multi-day rally following the company reporting earnings above consensus and a massive multi-billion dollar deal with Hertz (OTCPK:HTZZ). Tesla continues to grow rapidly even at its size, with deliveries rising ~20% q/q to 241,300 units for Q3. Tesla is offering very attractive growth rates at a scale much larger than EV peers, and as such is one of the hottest names on Wall Street. Trading volumes breached 60 million, more than double Tesla's 10-day average, with dollar volume over $60 billion. Although a substantial portion of these could be quick trades to capitalize on a >12% move on the day, Tesla has been a gift that keeps on giving, and ultimately, it's possible to get stuck buying at a short-term top, much like in January. Even with a multi-quarter string of revenue and delivery boosts from the deal, the risk-reward outlook to buying at the moment is not highly convincing - while it's not necessarily a good idea to bet against Tesla, it does not seem to be the best time to buy.\nA Hertz Fleet Deal\nThe Hertz deal shows that the demand for large-volume fleet EV exists, with the rental car operator putting in an order worth over 20% of its fleet size for Tesla's vehicles. With the order, Hertz will offer the largest EV in the country.\nGraphic from Hertz\nHertz is jumping behind \"rising global demand and interest\" for EV as the vehicles become more \"mainstream,\" choosing to invest $4.2 billion for Tesla vehicles over the next fourteen months, with the first deliveries and availabilities expected to commence in November.\nBecause EV rely on public charging infrastructure, which can be limited or harder to find than gas stations, Hertz will be \"installing thousands of chargers throughout its location network,\" adding to the 3,000 supercharging network available via Tesla. In addition, Hertz's app will provide \"digitized guidance to educate customers about the electric vehicle to get them on their way quickly, and coming soon, an expedited EV rental booking process.\" Customers booking vehicles will have to know how to use certain features like Autopilot, FSD or controlling the car through the app.\nHertz did recently emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy earlier this summer, and while some questions are raised about the exact funding for a deal of this size will come from given $3.0 billion in total liquidity, operating metrics have improved dramatically and rival 2019's pre-pandemic levels. Although revenues were ~11% lower than 2019, vehicle utilization sat at 78%, 3 percentage points behind as RPD and RPU increased significantly as prices rose. Compared to 2019 for Q2, Hertz saw RPD 53% higher to above $65 and RPU per month 48% higher to $1,557 - more expensive pricing of rental cars due to high demand and insufficient supply did aid these metrics, yet utilization rates reflect a strong rebound in the industry.\nFor Tesla, the deal with Hertz not only signifies a large bump to revenues and deliveries through fiscal 2022 but a broader trend towards large-scale fleet acceptance in ride renting/sharing/hailing. 100,000 units represent close to 12% of Tesla's current TTM volume and about 7% of projected deliveries and revenues for FY22. It's a substantial contribution from a single customer, but it provides a bright outlook into the future of EV in ride hailing/renting - the adoption curve could come quicker than anticipated.\nIn the broader industry, Uber (UBER) is working with multiple different players, including Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF), Arrival (ARVL) and TotalEnergies (TTE) to accelerate EV adoption while Waymo (GOOGL) and Cruise (GM) are working towards self-driving robotaxi services, which still could be years away from large-scale operations. EV can fill parts of that void, with Tesla having the necessary capacity to produce hundreds of thousands of units for fleet operators with GF Shanghai, Berlin and Texas all ramping to scale and building new capacity.\nContinuing Along the Growth Trajectory\nTesla's Q3 results speak for themselves, with the company firing on all cylinders as performance metrics across the board reached new highs.\nThe company saw its \"best-ever net income, operating profit and gross profit,\" with operating margins higher than expected, operating cash flow reaching a record, its highest production levels at Fremont, and strong growth in multiple metrics. Auto revenues rose 58% y/y and 18% q/q, slightly lagging deliveries' ~20% q/q growth as ASPs slipped 6% y/y. Higher contribution from China likely was a large factor in the ASP decline, as well as in the uptick in deliveries, with the region reportedly accounting for 133,238 vehicles during the quarter, or 55.2%; this came in higher than predicted as ASPs trended lower. That figure is 6.3 percentage points higher than Q2, with September's ~56,000 units delivered and exported a whopping 70% higher than June.\nGraphic from Tesla\nDeliveries have started to hit a hyper-growth trajectory over the trailing four quarters, with growth emerging in Q3 2020. Since then, Tesla has nearly doubled deliveries, a much faster rate than pre-pandemic growth as EV adoption and capacity increases. At the moment, Tesla's annual capacity is close to 1.1 million, or nearly 40% higher than TTM deliveries, giving the company much more room to grow ahead of completion in Berlin and Texas.\nHard To Buy Here\nEven with growth rates and operating metrics impressing across the board, it's hard to chalk out a positive risk-reward outlook after shares ran higher this week - the earnings and $4.2 billion Hertz deal added at one point nearly $200 billion to Tesla's valuation, or close to $175 billion at the high in just the two days since the deal was announced. Are the new synergies from the deal and/or earnings good enough to support buying a company worth over 15% more following that announcement? Here, that does not look to be the case.\nOver the short-term, such frenzied trading and rapid, high percentage rallies are typically very short-lived - Tesla's last pre-split rally to $900 in early 2020 saw the stock shed 20% in under a week, and a strong rally to nearly $900 post-split in early 2021 saw shares hold for a month after a 10% drop before shedding another 35% through March. Short-term trades can pay off, but from a long-term standpoint, the outlook is bright, but the return potential, not as much.\nTesla projects that it can drive long-term average annual growth of 50% in deliveries, which, from 900,000 deliveries possible for FY21, would see Tesla doing about 4.5 million vehicles per year in 2025. Extending that growth rate further to 2030 would see Tesla delivering 34 million vehicles, or half of global automotive volumes from 2020; this seems to be a very unrealistic scenario, even as Tesla stated that the goal is to have 20 million deliveries by then. To reach that figure, Tesla would have to grow at about 35% annual from 2025's projected figure. All in all, 2025's deliveries could be close to 5% of total global automotive sales volumes while 2030's could be near 20%. Given the competition in the industry, it's hard to see Tesla driving that much market share alone and beating out competition by that far of a margin - even Apple (AAPL) only commands near 15% market share in smartphones, where it's widely seen among the top three in the industry.\nWith that forecast, Tesla is also seeing a path to $400 billion in revenues - this would assume that revenue growth slows much faster y/y than deliveries - driving deliveries to 20 million requires 5 years of ~33% average annual growth following 4 years of 50% annual growth while revenues would grow for 5 years at ~20% average annual growth for 5 years following 4 years of 34% average annual growth.\nTo hit both of those figures, revenues at $400 billion on deliveries of 20 million, Tesla would have to cut its ASPs significantly, down to $25,000 by 2027 and ~$16,500 by 2029, assuming growth rates in energy storage and other aspects of the business continue. Tesla does envision itself in most major spaces - small/mid/large SUV, sedan/trucks, as well as in affordable <$25,000 models and robotaxis; however, those most likely wouldn't amount to a sub $20,000 ASP, meaning that there are some substantial doubts raised about the feasibility of both targets occurring mutually by 2030. The other possibility that is not included here is that Tesla does not sell a robotaxi fleet but rather manages a multi-million unit fleet itself, therefore having a fair proportion of targeted 2030 volumes not reflected in ASPs.\nShould Tesla be overshooting the delivery figures, revenues are likely very misguided; but should Tesla in fact be correct in targeting 20 million vehicles through multiple market opportunities, revenues could be completely sandbagging that potential. Time will tell in this regard.\nBack to market share - Tesla would likely be seeing around the high-teens to 20% of global automotive volumes by 2030 based ontrendswithin the industry. Yet it's hard to see Tesla achieving and maintaining such a stronghold as startups like XPeng (XPEV) and NIO (NIO) challenge it heavily on price and tech (though both are primarily confined to China geographically still) while ICE leaders are aggressively pushing to EV. Therefore, it's possible that the EV industry will remain fragmented and Tesla will not be able to hold a monopolistic grip on the sector, where it dominates volumes and dictates the industry. The company has just north of 4% total market share, and with competition heating up rapidly, the only scenario to see market share gains possibly reach that degree would be if production capacities reach that 15 million and remain over 50% higher than peers' EV manufacturing capabilities.\nIn the long-term picture, the broader outlook is that EV will become the new norm, with manufacturers agreeing to work towards 40% to 50% volumes in EV. The overall goal still looks to be an EV-dominant or even full-EV future. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to hit the roads by 2030, greatly increasing the selection to consumers and overall supply volume of the vehicle type. With ICE vehicles as the old 'gold standard' and EV expected to become the 'new', ultimately the valuation premiums for industry disruption and tech are likely to fade and reflect similar multiples to the ICE cohort - at that time, in the long run, a majority of manufacturers will likely all be competing in the same vehicle type, with similar specs and technology. Although Tesla has been ahead of the curve, peers are catching up, and losing a disruption multiple from competitive/market share pressures and lower revenue growth rates, and valuations in the industry falling similar to what ICE manufacturers have experienced, the current 'gold standard' could see fair value at 3x sales and 21x earnings (14% net margin on $400 billion revenues), providing just an ample ~20% upside. Tesla does offer very attractive growth rates and sometimes unpredictable potential, but there's likely to be much better buying opportunities in the future as the risk-reward picture looks unfavorable at the moment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":856464954,"gmtCreate":1635208141117,"gmtModify":1635208141421,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6042f7c251f90b1586739907b6125910","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856464954","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":810275459,"gmtCreate":1629984827471,"gmtModify":1633681018933,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>like pls","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>like pls","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$like pls","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccb00ed80f6b1ef394f3c30ff56ce821","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810275459","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834350294,"gmtCreate":1629773747418,"gmtModify":1633682523616,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>like pls","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>like pls","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$like pls","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c243083bd60820cbc43693f1aa82e6f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834350294","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895876140,"gmtCreate":1628735905480,"gmtModify":1631884597141,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">$Li Auto Inc.(02015)$</a>keep?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">$Li Auto Inc.(02015)$</a>keep?","text":"$Li Auto Inc.(02015)$keep?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f1c2ef0d1f2b2271a1f58a5ea34d8ee","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895876140","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145095372,"gmtCreate":1626181945296,"gmtModify":1633929343881,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice and like pls","listText":"Nice and like pls","text":"Nice and like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145095372","repostId":"1107596232","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143207214,"gmtCreate":1625794747938,"gmtModify":1633937262975,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>go to the moon pls..","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>go to the moon pls..","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$go to the moon pls..","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fea5ac6686bb45ac77a02dcb79cd204","width":"1080","height":"1994"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143207214","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377013092,"gmtCreate":1619484087616,"gmtModify":1631887202212,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MVIS\">$Microvision(MVIS)$</a>from losing to $10 and now $28","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MVIS\">$Microvision(MVIS)$</a>from losing to $10 and now $28","text":"$Microvision(MVIS)$from losing to $10 and now $28","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/554bcdeb17cbb8e557bc0f02e3d34fa4","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377013092","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372176445,"gmtCreate":1619188297487,"gmtModify":1631887202483,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MVIS\">$Microvision(MVIS)$</a>wow didnt expect so fast","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MVIS\">$Microvision(MVIS)$</a>wow didnt expect so fast","text":"$Microvision(MVIS)$wow didnt expect so fast","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a20a52d72b5b813372e840138e0545f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372176445","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":810275459,"gmtCreate":1629984827471,"gmtModify":1633681018933,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>like pls","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>like pls","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$like pls","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccb00ed80f6b1ef394f3c30ff56ce821","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810275459","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145095372,"gmtCreate":1626181945296,"gmtModify":1633929343881,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice and like pls","listText":"Nice and like pls","text":"Nice and like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145095372","repostId":"1107596232","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358931400,"gmtCreate":1616648307300,"gmtModify":1634524732499,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment. Thanks.","listText":"Like and comment. Thanks.","text":"Like and comment. Thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358931400","repostId":"1179697554","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":855737076,"gmtCreate":1635400166761,"gmtModify":1635400166814,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855737076","repostId":"1127302287","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1127302287","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635399924,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127302287?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-28 13:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Lands A Massive Deal And Breaks $1 Trillion: Are Shares A Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127302287","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla added nearly $200 billion to its valuation this week following good earnings and an ~","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla added nearly $200 billion to its valuation this week following good earnings and an ~$4.2 billion deal for 100K vehicles from Hertz.</li>\n <li>The current growth trajectory and projected long-term growth offer massive potential in deliveries and revenues, but the risk-reward picture is weaker.</li>\n <li>Forecasting a mutual outcome of $400 billion in revenues and 20 million units would likely lead to very low ASPs.</li>\n <li>Long-term sustenance of the current multiple profile is countered by multiple risks including market share and competition, and industry-wide multiple re-rating.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f0cfebc83d76c5cc8908a766201917d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1000\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>Tesla (TSLA) broke the $1,000 barrier, taking the company to the trillion club on a multi-day rally following the company reporting earnings above consensus and a massive multi-billion dollar deal with Hertz (OTCPK:HTZZ). Tesla continues to grow rapidly even at its size, with&nbsp;deliveries&nbsp;rising ~20% q/q to 241,300 units for Q3. Tesla is offering very attractive growth rates at a scale much larger than EV peers, and as such is one of the hottest names on Wall Street. Trading volumes breached 60 million, more than double Tesla's 10-day average, with dollar volume over $60 billion. Although a substantial portion of these could be quick trades to capitalize on a &gt;12% move on the day, Tesla has been a gift that keeps on giving, and ultimately, it's possible to get stuck buying at a short-term top, much like in January. Even with a multi-quarter string of revenue and delivery boosts from the deal, the risk-reward outlook to buying at the moment is not highly convincing - while it's not necessarily a good idea to bet against Tesla, it does not seem to be the best time to buy.</p>\n<p><b>A Hertz Fleet Deal</b></p>\n<p>The Hertz deal shows that the demand for large-volume fleet EV exists, with the rental car operator putting in an order worth over 20% of its fleet size for Tesla's vehicles. With the order, Hertz will offer the largest EV in the country.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e286a4ee0a7807efc3b113fc7120d2a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"853\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Graphic from Hertz</span></p>\n<p>Hertz is jumping behind \"rising global demand and interest\" for EV as the vehicles become more \"mainstream,\" choosing to invest $4.2 billion for Tesla vehicles over the next fourteen months, with the first deliveries and availabilities expected to commence in November.</p>\n<p>Because EV rely on public charging infrastructure, which can be limited or harder to find than gas stations, Hertz will be \"installing thousands of chargers throughout its location network,\" adding to the 3,000 supercharging network available via Tesla. In addition, Hertz's app will provide \"digitized guidance to educate customers about the electric vehicle to get them on their way quickly, and coming soon, an expedited EV rental booking process.\" Customers booking vehicles will have to know how to use certain features like Autopilot, FSD or controlling the car through the app.</p>\n<p>Hertz did recently emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy earlier this summer, and while some questions are raised about the exact funding for a deal of this size will come from given $3.0 billion in total liquidity, operating&nbsp;metrics&nbsp;have improved dramatically and rival 2019's pre-pandemic levels. Although revenues were ~11% lower than 2019, vehicle utilization sat at 78%, 3 percentage points behind as RPD and RPU increased significantly as prices rose. Compared to 2019 for Q2, Hertz saw RPD 53% higher to above $65 and RPU per month 48% higher to $1,557 - more expensive pricing of rental cars due to high demand and insufficient supply did aid these metrics, yet utilization rates reflect a strong rebound in the industry.</p>\n<p>For Tesla, the deal with Hertz not only signifies a large bump to revenues and deliveries through fiscal 2022 but a broader trend towards large-scale fleet acceptance in ride renting/sharing/hailing. 100,000 units represent close to 12% of Tesla's current TTM volume and about 7% of projected deliveries and revenues for FY22. It's a substantial contribution from a single customer, but it provides a bright outlook into the future of EV in ride hailing/renting - the adoption curve could come quicker than anticipated.</p>\n<p>In the broader industry, Uber (UBER) is working with multiple different players, including Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF), Arrival (ARVL) and TotalEnergies (TTE) to accelerate EV adoption while Waymo (GOOGL) and Cruise (GM) are working towards self-driving robotaxi services, which still could be years away from large-scale operations. EV can fill parts of that void, with Tesla having the necessary capacity to produce hundreds of thousands of units for fleet operators with GF Shanghai, Berlin and Texas all ramping to scale and building new capacity.</p>\n<p><b>Continuing Along the Growth Trajectory</b></p>\n<p>Tesla's Q3 results speak for themselves, with the company firing on all cylinders as performance metrics across the board reached new highs.</p>\n<p>The company saw its \"best-ever net income, operating profit and gross profit,\" with operating margins higher than expected, operating cash flow reaching a record, its highest production levels at Fremont, and strong growth in multiple metrics. Auto revenues rose 58% y/y and 18% q/q, slightly lagging deliveries' ~20% q/q growth as ASPs slipped 6% y/y. Higher contribution from China likely was a large factor in the ASP decline, as well as in the uptick in deliveries, with the region reportedly accounting for 133,238 vehicles during the quarter, or 55.2%; this came in higher than predicted as ASPs trended lower. That figure is 6.3 percentage points higher than Q2, with September's ~56,000 units delivered and exported a whopping 70% higher than June.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4f9c664d1a45c750aac76ffc372b2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"732\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Graphic from Tesla</span></p>\n<p>Deliveries have started to hit a hyper-growth trajectory over the trailing four quarters, with growth emerging in Q3 2020. Since then, Tesla has nearly doubled deliveries, a much faster rate than pre-pandemic growth as EV adoption and capacity increases. At the moment, Tesla's annual capacity is close to 1.1 million, or nearly 40% higher than TTM deliveries, giving the company much more room to grow ahead of completion in Berlin and Texas.</p>\n<p><b>Hard To Buy Here</b></p>\n<p>Even with growth rates and operating metrics impressing across the board, it's hard to chalk out a positive risk-reward outlook after shares ran higher this week - the earnings and $4.2 billion Hertz deal added at one point nearly $200 billion to Tesla's valuation, or close to $175 billion at the high in just the two days since the deal was announced. Are the new synergies from the deal and/or earnings good enough to support buying a company worth over 15% more following that announcement? Here, that does not look to be the case.</p>\n<p>Over the short-term, such frenzied trading and rapid, high percentage rallies are typically very short-lived - Tesla's last pre-split rally to $900 in early 2020 saw the stock shed 20% in under a week, and a strong rally to nearly $900 post-split in early 2021 saw shares hold for a month after a 10% drop before shedding another 35% through March. Short-term trades can pay off, but from a long-term standpoint, the outlook is bright, but the return potential, not as much.</p>\n<p>Tesla projects that it can drive long-term average annual growth of 50% in deliveries, which, from 900,000 deliveries possible for FY21, would see Tesla doing about 4.5 million vehicles per year in 2025. Extending that growth rate further to 2030 would see Tesla delivering 34 million vehicles, or half of global automotive volumes from 2020; this seems to be a very unrealistic scenario, even as Tesla stated that the goal is to have 20 million deliveries by then. To reach that figure, Tesla would have to grow at about 35% annual from 2025's projected figure. All in all, 2025's deliveries could be close to 5% of total global automotive sales volumes while 2030's could be near 20%. Given the competition in the industry, it's hard to see Tesla driving that much market share alone and beating out competition by that far of a margin - even Apple (AAPL) only commands near 15% market share in smartphones, where it's widely seen among the top three in the industry.</p>\n<p>With that forecast, Tesla is also seeing a path to $400 billion in revenues - this would assume that revenue growth slows much faster y/y than deliveries - driving deliveries to 20 million requires 5 years of ~33% average annual growth following 4 years of 50% annual growth while revenues would grow for 5 years at ~20% average annual growth for 5 years following 4 years of 34% average annual growth.</p>\n<p>To hit both of those figures, revenues at $400 billion on deliveries of 20 million, Tesla would have to cut its ASPs significantly, down to $25,000 by 2027 and ~$16,500 by 2029, assuming growth rates in energy storage and other aspects of the business continue. Tesla does envision itself in most major spaces - small/mid/large SUV, sedan/trucks, as well as in affordable &lt;$25,000 models and robotaxis; however, those most likely wouldn't amount to a sub $20,000 ASP, meaning that there are some substantial doubts raised about the feasibility of both targets occurring mutually by 2030. The other possibility that is not included here is that Tesla does not sell a robotaxi fleet but rather manages a multi-million unit fleet itself, therefore having a fair proportion of targeted 2030 volumes not reflected in ASPs.</p>\n<p>Should Tesla be overshooting the delivery figures, revenues are likely very misguided; but should Tesla in fact be correct in targeting 20 million vehicles through multiple market opportunities, revenues could be completely sandbagging that potential. Time will tell in this regard.</p>\n<p>Back to market share - Tesla would likely be seeing around the high-teens to 20% of global automotive volumes by 2030 based ontrendswithin the industry. Yet it's hard to see Tesla achieving and maintaining such a stronghold as startups like XPeng (XPEV) and NIO (NIO) challenge it heavily on price and tech (though both are primarily confined to China geographically still) while ICE leaders are aggressively pushing to EV. Therefore, it's possible that the EV industry will remain fragmented and Tesla will not be able to hold a monopolistic grip on the sector, where it dominates volumes and dictates the industry. The company has just north of 4% total market share, and with competition heating up rapidly, the only scenario to see market share gains possibly reach that degree would be if production capacities reach that 15 million and remain over 50% higher than peers' EV manufacturing capabilities.</p>\n<p>In the long-term picture, the broader outlook is that EV will become the new norm, with manufacturers agreeing to work towards 40% to 50% volumes in EV. The overall goal still looks to be an EV-dominant or even full-EV future. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to hit the roads by 2030, greatly increasing the selection to consumers and overall supply volume of the vehicle type. With ICE vehicles as the old 'gold standard' and EV expected to become the 'new', ultimately the valuation premiums for industry disruption and tech are likely to fade and reflect similar multiples to the ICE cohort - at that time, in the long run, a majority of manufacturers will likely all be competing in the same vehicle type, with similar specs and technology. Although Tesla has been ahead of the curve, peers are catching up, and losing a disruption multiple from competitive/market share pressures and lower revenue growth rates, and valuations in the industry falling similar to what ICE manufacturers have experienced, the current 'gold standard' could see fair value at 3x sales and 21x earnings (14% net margin on $400 billion revenues), providing just an ample ~20% upside. Tesla does offer very attractive growth rates and sometimes unpredictable potential, but there's likely to be much better buying opportunities in the future as the risk-reward picture looks unfavorable at the moment.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Lands A Massive Deal And Breaks $1 Trillion: Are Shares A Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Lands A Massive Deal And Breaks $1 Trillion: Are Shares A Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-28 13:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4462564-tesla-tsla-massive-deal-breaks-1-trillion-shares-buy><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla added nearly $200 billion to its valuation this week following good earnings and an ~$4.2 billion deal for 100K vehicles from Hertz.\nThe current growth trajectory and projected long-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4462564-tesla-tsla-massive-deal-breaks-1-trillion-shares-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4462564-tesla-tsla-massive-deal-breaks-1-trillion-shares-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127302287","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla added nearly $200 billion to its valuation this week following good earnings and an ~$4.2 billion deal for 100K vehicles from Hertz.\nThe current growth trajectory and projected long-term growth offer massive potential in deliveries and revenues, but the risk-reward picture is weaker.\nForecasting a mutual outcome of $400 billion in revenues and 20 million units would likely lead to very low ASPs.\nLong-term sustenance of the current multiple profile is countered by multiple risks including market share and competition, and industry-wide multiple re-rating.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nTesla (TSLA) broke the $1,000 barrier, taking the company to the trillion club on a multi-day rally following the company reporting earnings above consensus and a massive multi-billion dollar deal with Hertz (OTCPK:HTZZ). Tesla continues to grow rapidly even at its size, with deliveries rising ~20% q/q to 241,300 units for Q3. Tesla is offering very attractive growth rates at a scale much larger than EV peers, and as such is one of the hottest names on Wall Street. Trading volumes breached 60 million, more than double Tesla's 10-day average, with dollar volume over $60 billion. Although a substantial portion of these could be quick trades to capitalize on a >12% move on the day, Tesla has been a gift that keeps on giving, and ultimately, it's possible to get stuck buying at a short-term top, much like in January. Even with a multi-quarter string of revenue and delivery boosts from the deal, the risk-reward outlook to buying at the moment is not highly convincing - while it's not necessarily a good idea to bet against Tesla, it does not seem to be the best time to buy.\nA Hertz Fleet Deal\nThe Hertz deal shows that the demand for large-volume fleet EV exists, with the rental car operator putting in an order worth over 20% of its fleet size for Tesla's vehicles. With the order, Hertz will offer the largest EV in the country.\nGraphic from Hertz\nHertz is jumping behind \"rising global demand and interest\" for EV as the vehicles become more \"mainstream,\" choosing to invest $4.2 billion for Tesla vehicles over the next fourteen months, with the first deliveries and availabilities expected to commence in November.\nBecause EV rely on public charging infrastructure, which can be limited or harder to find than gas stations, Hertz will be \"installing thousands of chargers throughout its location network,\" adding to the 3,000 supercharging network available via Tesla. In addition, Hertz's app will provide \"digitized guidance to educate customers about the electric vehicle to get them on their way quickly, and coming soon, an expedited EV rental booking process.\" Customers booking vehicles will have to know how to use certain features like Autopilot, FSD or controlling the car through the app.\nHertz did recently emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy earlier this summer, and while some questions are raised about the exact funding for a deal of this size will come from given $3.0 billion in total liquidity, operating metrics have improved dramatically and rival 2019's pre-pandemic levels. Although revenues were ~11% lower than 2019, vehicle utilization sat at 78%, 3 percentage points behind as RPD and RPU increased significantly as prices rose. Compared to 2019 for Q2, Hertz saw RPD 53% higher to above $65 and RPU per month 48% higher to $1,557 - more expensive pricing of rental cars due to high demand and insufficient supply did aid these metrics, yet utilization rates reflect a strong rebound in the industry.\nFor Tesla, the deal with Hertz not only signifies a large bump to revenues and deliveries through fiscal 2022 but a broader trend towards large-scale fleet acceptance in ride renting/sharing/hailing. 100,000 units represent close to 12% of Tesla's current TTM volume and about 7% of projected deliveries and revenues for FY22. It's a substantial contribution from a single customer, but it provides a bright outlook into the future of EV in ride hailing/renting - the adoption curve could come quicker than anticipated.\nIn the broader industry, Uber (UBER) is working with multiple different players, including Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF), Arrival (ARVL) and TotalEnergies (TTE) to accelerate EV adoption while Waymo (GOOGL) and Cruise (GM) are working towards self-driving robotaxi services, which still could be years away from large-scale operations. EV can fill parts of that void, with Tesla having the necessary capacity to produce hundreds of thousands of units for fleet operators with GF Shanghai, Berlin and Texas all ramping to scale and building new capacity.\nContinuing Along the Growth Trajectory\nTesla's Q3 results speak for themselves, with the company firing on all cylinders as performance metrics across the board reached new highs.\nThe company saw its \"best-ever net income, operating profit and gross profit,\" with operating margins higher than expected, operating cash flow reaching a record, its highest production levels at Fremont, and strong growth in multiple metrics. Auto revenues rose 58% y/y and 18% q/q, slightly lagging deliveries' ~20% q/q growth as ASPs slipped 6% y/y. Higher contribution from China likely was a large factor in the ASP decline, as well as in the uptick in deliveries, with the region reportedly accounting for 133,238 vehicles during the quarter, or 55.2%; this came in higher than predicted as ASPs trended lower. That figure is 6.3 percentage points higher than Q2, with September's ~56,000 units delivered and exported a whopping 70% higher than June.\nGraphic from Tesla\nDeliveries have started to hit a hyper-growth trajectory over the trailing four quarters, with growth emerging in Q3 2020. Since then, Tesla has nearly doubled deliveries, a much faster rate than pre-pandemic growth as EV adoption and capacity increases. At the moment, Tesla's annual capacity is close to 1.1 million, or nearly 40% higher than TTM deliveries, giving the company much more room to grow ahead of completion in Berlin and Texas.\nHard To Buy Here\nEven with growth rates and operating metrics impressing across the board, it's hard to chalk out a positive risk-reward outlook after shares ran higher this week - the earnings and $4.2 billion Hertz deal added at one point nearly $200 billion to Tesla's valuation, or close to $175 billion at the high in just the two days since the deal was announced. Are the new synergies from the deal and/or earnings good enough to support buying a company worth over 15% more following that announcement? Here, that does not look to be the case.\nOver the short-term, such frenzied trading and rapid, high percentage rallies are typically very short-lived - Tesla's last pre-split rally to $900 in early 2020 saw the stock shed 20% in under a week, and a strong rally to nearly $900 post-split in early 2021 saw shares hold for a month after a 10% drop before shedding another 35% through March. Short-term trades can pay off, but from a long-term standpoint, the outlook is bright, but the return potential, not as much.\nTesla projects that it can drive long-term average annual growth of 50% in deliveries, which, from 900,000 deliveries possible for FY21, would see Tesla doing about 4.5 million vehicles per year in 2025. Extending that growth rate further to 2030 would see Tesla delivering 34 million vehicles, or half of global automotive volumes from 2020; this seems to be a very unrealistic scenario, even as Tesla stated that the goal is to have 20 million deliveries by then. To reach that figure, Tesla would have to grow at about 35% annual from 2025's projected figure. All in all, 2025's deliveries could be close to 5% of total global automotive sales volumes while 2030's could be near 20%. Given the competition in the industry, it's hard to see Tesla driving that much market share alone and beating out competition by that far of a margin - even Apple (AAPL) only commands near 15% market share in smartphones, where it's widely seen among the top three in the industry.\nWith that forecast, Tesla is also seeing a path to $400 billion in revenues - this would assume that revenue growth slows much faster y/y than deliveries - driving deliveries to 20 million requires 5 years of ~33% average annual growth following 4 years of 50% annual growth while revenues would grow for 5 years at ~20% average annual growth for 5 years following 4 years of 34% average annual growth.\nTo hit both of those figures, revenues at $400 billion on deliveries of 20 million, Tesla would have to cut its ASPs significantly, down to $25,000 by 2027 and ~$16,500 by 2029, assuming growth rates in energy storage and other aspects of the business continue. Tesla does envision itself in most major spaces - small/mid/large SUV, sedan/trucks, as well as in affordable <$25,000 models and robotaxis; however, those most likely wouldn't amount to a sub $20,000 ASP, meaning that there are some substantial doubts raised about the feasibility of both targets occurring mutually by 2030. The other possibility that is not included here is that Tesla does not sell a robotaxi fleet but rather manages a multi-million unit fleet itself, therefore having a fair proportion of targeted 2030 volumes not reflected in ASPs.\nShould Tesla be overshooting the delivery figures, revenues are likely very misguided; but should Tesla in fact be correct in targeting 20 million vehicles through multiple market opportunities, revenues could be completely sandbagging that potential. Time will tell in this regard.\nBack to market share - Tesla would likely be seeing around the high-teens to 20% of global automotive volumes by 2030 based ontrendswithin the industry. Yet it's hard to see Tesla achieving and maintaining such a stronghold as startups like XPeng (XPEV) and NIO (NIO) challenge it heavily on price and tech (though both are primarily confined to China geographically still) while ICE leaders are aggressively pushing to EV. Therefore, it's possible that the EV industry will remain fragmented and Tesla will not be able to hold a monopolistic grip on the sector, where it dominates volumes and dictates the industry. The company has just north of 4% total market share, and with competition heating up rapidly, the only scenario to see market share gains possibly reach that degree would be if production capacities reach that 15 million and remain over 50% higher than peers' EV manufacturing capabilities.\nIn the long-term picture, the broader outlook is that EV will become the new norm, with manufacturers agreeing to work towards 40% to 50% volumes in EV. The overall goal still looks to be an EV-dominant or even full-EV future. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to hit the roads by 2030, greatly increasing the selection to consumers and overall supply volume of the vehicle type. With ICE vehicles as the old 'gold standard' and EV expected to become the 'new', ultimately the valuation premiums for industry disruption and tech are likely to fade and reflect similar multiples to the ICE cohort - at that time, in the long run, a majority of manufacturers will likely all be competing in the same vehicle type, with similar specs and technology. Although Tesla has been ahead of the curve, peers are catching up, and losing a disruption multiple from competitive/market share pressures and lower revenue growth rates, and valuations in the industry falling similar to what ICE manufacturers have experienced, the current 'gold standard' could see fair value at 3x sales and 21x earnings (14% net margin on $400 billion revenues), providing just an ample ~20% upside. Tesla does offer very attractive growth rates and sometimes unpredictable potential, but there's likely to be much better buying opportunities in the future as the risk-reward picture looks unfavorable at the moment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348553209,"gmtCreate":1617944433901,"gmtModify":1634295597397,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Please like and comment. Thanks","text":"Please like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348553209","repostId":"1147517160","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349522570,"gmtCreate":1617627706190,"gmtModify":1634297476421,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349522570","repostId":"1130993065","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130993065","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617627632,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130993065?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-05 21:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s the $4.5 trillion ‘firepower’ that will drive stocks higher in April, says top strategist","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130993065","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"A new month is off to a bullish start, or so it seems, as stock futures climb following Friday’s bet","content":"<p>A new month is off to a bullish start, or so it seems, as stock futures climb following Friday’s better-than-expected,916,000 gain&nbsp;in March jobs, which underpins investor hopes for a strong post-COVID-19 rebound.</p><p>As for the data, there’s a lot to like, according to Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors.</p><p>“Assuming the pandemic only comes under greater control this year, I suspect a substantial impediment limiting the pace of job growth this year will be the pace at which firms can hire employees. Firing is easier than hiring and employers are now scrambling to add workers,” Duy told clients in a note.</p><p>Hence, watch for those “we can’t hire worker” stories, to come, he says.</p><p>Onto our&nbsp;<b>call of the day</b>&nbsp;from Fundstrat Global Advisors’s founder Thomas Lee, who says the “face ripper” rally he recently predicted shows no signs of easing up. And there’s a $4.5 trillion reason to believe gains will carry into April, he told clients.</p><p>Aside from the positives out there already for this market — a strong economy and vaccine rollout — Lee points to a pile of institutional money on the sidelines, with cash balances at $3 trillion, the highest since June 2020. That’s against $2.764 trillion at the start of 2021, a “dramatic” gain of 9% or $241 billion, said Lee.</p><p>A cautious stance by institutions that went “parabolic” in the last half of March, adds to the $1.5 trillion in retail money market cash.</p><p>“Total cash on the sidelines is $4.5 trillion = tons and tons of firepower on the sidelines. This bodes well for April equity gains,” said Lee.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b63c34415ffe19164a54a324b427d\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Lee expects small-caps, energy and cyclical stocks — geared toward an economic recovery — to continue leading into the second quarter.</p><p>“Recall that cyclicals are only 33% of the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;overall weight and more than 60% of the Russell 2000 index.&nbsp; So if Cyclicals, aka Epicenter, work, small-cap stocks will outperform,” he said.</p><p><b>Watch this chart</b></p><p>Adam Kobeissi, founder and editor in chief of&nbsp;The Kobeissi Letter, expects the bullish jobs report to send the S&amp;P 500 to 4,035 to 4,050 in the near term, but from there he’d like to see it pull back to 3,950 to 4,000, to set up for another higher low before a move toward 4,100.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9abfb431da31b94898bf8d11e3744681\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"706\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>THE KOBEISSI LETTER</span></p><p>“Therefore, we are remaining on the sidelines to start this week, as stepping in front of a market this strong is not a stance we want to take, and will maintain a medium term bullish outlook with the intention of getting back into our bullish positions in the wake of a drop in the market,” Kobeissi told subscribers.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s the $4.5 trillion ‘firepower’ that will drive stocks higher in April, says top strategist</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s the $4.5 trillion ‘firepower’ that will drive stocks higher in April, says top strategist\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-05 21:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-4-5-trillion-firepower-that-will-drive-stocks-higher-in-april-says-top-strategist-11617621774?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A new month is off to a bullish start, or so it seems, as stock futures climb following Friday’s better-than-expected,916,000 gain in March jobs, which underpins investor hopes for a strong post-COVID...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-4-5-trillion-firepower-that-will-drive-stocks-higher-in-april-says-top-strategist-11617621774?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-4-5-trillion-firepower-that-will-drive-stocks-higher-in-april-says-top-strategist-11617621774?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130993065","content_text":"A new month is off to a bullish start, or so it seems, as stock futures climb following Friday’s better-than-expected,916,000 gain in March jobs, which underpins investor hopes for a strong post-COVID-19 rebound.As for the data, there’s a lot to like, according to Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors.“Assuming the pandemic only comes under greater control this year, I suspect a substantial impediment limiting the pace of job growth this year will be the pace at which firms can hire employees. Firing is easier than hiring and employers are now scrambling to add workers,” Duy told clients in a note.Hence, watch for those “we can’t hire worker” stories, to come, he says.Onto our call of the day from Fundstrat Global Advisors’s founder Thomas Lee, who says the “face ripper” rally he recently predicted shows no signs of easing up. And there’s a $4.5 trillion reason to believe gains will carry into April, he told clients.Aside from the positives out there already for this market — a strong economy and vaccine rollout — Lee points to a pile of institutional money on the sidelines, with cash balances at $3 trillion, the highest since June 2020. That’s against $2.764 trillion at the start of 2021, a “dramatic” gain of 9% or $241 billion, said Lee.A cautious stance by institutions that went “parabolic” in the last half of March, adds to the $1.5 trillion in retail money market cash.“Total cash on the sidelines is $4.5 trillion = tons and tons of firepower on the sidelines. This bodes well for April equity gains,” said Lee.Lee expects small-caps, energy and cyclical stocks — geared toward an economic recovery — to continue leading into the second quarter.“Recall that cyclicals are only 33% of the S&P 500 overall weight and more than 60% of the Russell 2000 index.  So if Cyclicals, aka Epicenter, work, small-cap stocks will outperform,” he said.Watch this chartAdam Kobeissi, founder and editor in chief of The Kobeissi Letter, expects the bullish jobs report to send the S&P 500 to 4,035 to 4,050 in the near term, but from there he’d like to see it pull back to 3,950 to 4,000, to set up for another higher low before a move toward 4,100.THE KOBEISSI LETTER“Therefore, we are remaining on the sidelines to start this week, as stepping in front of a market this strong is not a stance we want to take, and will maintain a medium term bullish outlook with the intention of getting back into our bullish positions in the wake of a drop in the market,” Kobeissi told subscribers.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":878441300,"gmtCreate":1637226226379,"gmtModify":1637226226379,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$[微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/687a0776d6f2e799758ab49eb7cc899a","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878441300","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":377013092,"gmtCreate":1619484087616,"gmtModify":1631887202212,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MVIS\">$Microvision(MVIS)$</a>from losing to $10 and now $28","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MVIS\">$Microvision(MVIS)$</a>from losing to $10 and now $28","text":"$Microvision(MVIS)$from losing to $10 and now $28","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/554bcdeb17cbb8e557bc0f02e3d34fa4","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377013092","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":877020091,"gmtCreate":1637845496442,"gmtModify":1637845496442,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Hihi to those still looking at US stocks market even when it's closed.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Hihi to those still looking at US stocks market even when it's closed.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Hihi to those still looking at US stocks market even when it's closed.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/028cf4a6f9a22ded728b7d69086d64e6","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877020091","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878809572,"gmtCreate":1637162517937,"gmtModify":1637162518051,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a>bubble popped[心碎]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a>bubble popped[心碎]&nbsp;","text":"$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$bubble popped[心碎]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878809572","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":895876140,"gmtCreate":1628735905480,"gmtModify":1631884597141,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">$Li Auto Inc.(02015)$</a>keep?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">$Li Auto Inc.(02015)$</a>keep?","text":"$Li Auto Inc.(02015)$keep?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f1c2ef0d1f2b2271a1f58a5ea34d8ee","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895876140","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372176445,"gmtCreate":1619188297487,"gmtModify":1631887202483,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MVIS\">$Microvision(MVIS)$</a>wow didnt expect so fast","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MVIS\">$Microvision(MVIS)$</a>wow didnt expect so fast","text":"$Microvision(MVIS)$wow didnt expect so fast","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a20a52d72b5b813372e840138e0545f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372176445","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345891188,"gmtCreate":1618296302044,"gmtModify":1634293884074,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Don't like that.. all ev will go up ok?","listText":"Don't like that.. all ev will go up ok?","text":"Don't like that.. all ev will go up ok?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345891188","repostId":"2127755094","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349528601,"gmtCreate":1617627571103,"gmtModify":1634297477883,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349528601","repostId":"1155906502","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155906502","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617627304,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155906502?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-05 20:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Gold Is Due for a Comeback. Barrick Is a Good Way to Play It.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155906502","media":"Barrons","summary":"Blame it on Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as an alternative asset class or on higher Treasury rates, ","content":"<p>Blame it on Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as an alternative asset class or on higher Treasury rates, but gold has lost some of its luster.</p>\n<p>The metal has declined 9%, to $1,726 a troy ounce, in 2021, leaving it 16% below its record high of $2,063, reached last August.</p>\n<p>With the selloff, gold looks attractive—and so does mining giantBarrick Gold(ticker: GOLD). Shares of Barrick, at about $20, are down by over a third from their summer peak and look inexpensive, changing hands for 15 times projected 2021 earnings of $1.33 a share and yielding 1.8%.</p>\n<p>Barrick and other largegold-mining companiesare trading cheaply, relative to their histories and to gold, even though they are better run than ever before. Led by South African geologist and big-game hunter Mark Bristow, Barrick has an impressive portfolio of mines.</p>\n<p>There are 13 top gold mines in the world with projected annual production of 500,000 ounces for 10 years and with below-average costs, Bristow tells<i>Barron’s</i>in an interview—and Barrick owns or has interests in six of them. That includes three in Nevada, two in Africa, and one in the Dominican Republic.</p>\n<p>“We have the industry’s best assets and strongest balance sheet, with no net debt and the best people,” the CEO says. Barrick projects annual gold production of 4.5 million to five million ounces over the current decade, while offering some exposure to the hot copper market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d3dcd13bff1bc1d2b3a4fa193d964a6\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"635\"></p>\n<p>Larry Pitkowsky, manager of the GoodHaven mutual fund, a Barrick shareholder, is a believer. “Bristow is our kind of 24/7 manager and has skin in the game,” he says. Last year, amid the pandemic, Bristow visited each of the company’s mines three times.</p>\n<p>Barrick is “starting to return more cash to shareholders, and the stock is attractively priced, relative to free cash flow,” Pitkowsky adds. This year’s free-cash-flow yield is projected to be close to 10%.</p>\n<p>While&nbsp;higher Treasury rates&nbsp;have diminished the appeal of gold, the backdrop still looks favorable.</p>\n<p>“Gold is an investment to hold in these times of unknowns,” Bristow says, “and copper is rapidly becoming the most strategic metal in the world” as the pace of electrification picks up.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bdb22091b8ff3deb8a41145109a10f4\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"642\"></p>\n<p>Fred Hickey, editor of the High-Tech Strategist newsletter, says that Democratic control in Washington is bullish for gold. “No limits on their spending, leading to gigantic deficits (good for gold), more Fed monetization (debasement good for gold), and inflation (great for gold),” he tweeted this past week, noting parallels to the 1970s, when the precious metal went up 20-fold. He sees gold getting back to its August 2020 peak.</p>\n<p>Most investors have little or no exposure to the metal or to goldmining stocks. Despite Bitcoin’s rise, gold remains the time-tested alternative investment. To add it to your portfolio ahead of a revival in its price, there might be no better bet than one on Barrick and its swashbuckling leader.</p>\n<p>Bristow ran&nbsp;Randgold Resources,an African miner that generated ample returns for more than 20 years. He then merged it with the larger, Toronto-based Barrick in early 2019 and became CEO. That same year, he went after archrivalNewmont(NEM) with a hostile takeover bid. The offer was withdrawn when the two companies agreed to merge their valuable mining operations in Nevada. Barrick is the lead partner, with a 61.5% stake.</p>\n<p>Barrick’s stock lagged behind Newmont’s by 25 percentage points in the past year. Bristow questions Barrick’s lower valuation relative to Newmont, saying, “We have better-quality assets and are trading at a discount.”</p>\n<p>Why has Barrick trailed rivals? Newmont, the only gold company in the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;index, pays a higher dividend—3.6%—based on a formula that ties its payout to gold prices.</p>\n<p>Some investors are disappointed that Barrick has not come up with a similar dividend formula. It pays nine cents a share quarterly and plans to issue a special dividend of about 42 cents a share this year from the proceeds of asset sales in 2020.</p>\n<p>Then there is Bristow’s interest in buying gold or copper companies, which has unsettled investors who fear that Barrick will overpay.</p>\n<p>The CEO rebuffs such concerns. “Look at our merger-and-acquisition history and we haven’t screwed up once—I’m talking about me and my team,” he says, ticking off deals at Randgold, the Barrick merger, and the Newmont joint venture. “ I act like an owner because I am a big owner,” he says, noting that he holds over five million shares.</p>\n<p>As a well-run gold-mining company, Barrick can be a hedge against financial turmoil. That’s an alluring find.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold Is Due for a Comeback. Barrick Is a Good Way to Play It.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGold Is Due for a Comeback. Barrick Is a Good Way to Play It.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-05 20:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-is-due-for-a-comeback-barrick-is-a-good-way-to-play-it-51617396173?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Blame it on Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as an alternative asset class or on higher Treasury rates, but gold has lost some of its luster.\nThe metal has declined 9%, to $1,726 a troy ounce, in 2021, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-is-due-for-a-comeback-barrick-is-a-good-way-to-play-it-51617396173?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOLD":"Barrick Gold Corp"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-is-due-for-a-comeback-barrick-is-a-good-way-to-play-it-51617396173?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155906502","content_text":"Blame it on Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as an alternative asset class or on higher Treasury rates, but gold has lost some of its luster.\nThe metal has declined 9%, to $1,726 a troy ounce, in 2021, leaving it 16% below its record high of $2,063, reached last August.\nWith the selloff, gold looks attractive—and so does mining giantBarrick Gold(ticker: GOLD). Shares of Barrick, at about $20, are down by over a third from their summer peak and look inexpensive, changing hands for 15 times projected 2021 earnings of $1.33 a share and yielding 1.8%.\nBarrick and other largegold-mining companiesare trading cheaply, relative to their histories and to gold, even though they are better run than ever before. Led by South African geologist and big-game hunter Mark Bristow, Barrick has an impressive portfolio of mines.\nThere are 13 top gold mines in the world with projected annual production of 500,000 ounces for 10 years and with below-average costs, Bristow tellsBarron’sin an interview—and Barrick owns or has interests in six of them. That includes three in Nevada, two in Africa, and one in the Dominican Republic.\n“We have the industry’s best assets and strongest balance sheet, with no net debt and the best people,” the CEO says. Barrick projects annual gold production of 4.5 million to five million ounces over the current decade, while offering some exposure to the hot copper market.\n\nLarry Pitkowsky, manager of the GoodHaven mutual fund, a Barrick shareholder, is a believer. “Bristow is our kind of 24/7 manager and has skin in the game,” he says. Last year, amid the pandemic, Bristow visited each of the company’s mines three times.\nBarrick is “starting to return more cash to shareholders, and the stock is attractively priced, relative to free cash flow,” Pitkowsky adds. This year’s free-cash-flow yield is projected to be close to 10%.\nWhile higher Treasury rates have diminished the appeal of gold, the backdrop still looks favorable.\n“Gold is an investment to hold in these times of unknowns,” Bristow says, “and copper is rapidly becoming the most strategic metal in the world” as the pace of electrification picks up.\n\nFred Hickey, editor of the High-Tech Strategist newsletter, says that Democratic control in Washington is bullish for gold. “No limits on their spending, leading to gigantic deficits (good for gold), more Fed monetization (debasement good for gold), and inflation (great for gold),” he tweeted this past week, noting parallels to the 1970s, when the precious metal went up 20-fold. He sees gold getting back to its August 2020 peak.\nMost investors have little or no exposure to the metal or to goldmining stocks. Despite Bitcoin’s rise, gold remains the time-tested alternative investment. To add it to your portfolio ahead of a revival in its price, there might be no better bet than one on Barrick and its swashbuckling leader.\nBristow ran Randgold Resources,an African miner that generated ample returns for more than 20 years. He then merged it with the larger, Toronto-based Barrick in early 2019 and became CEO. That same year, he went after archrivalNewmont(NEM) with a hostile takeover bid. The offer was withdrawn when the two companies agreed to merge their valuable mining operations in Nevada. Barrick is the lead partner, with a 61.5% stake.\nBarrick’s stock lagged behind Newmont’s by 25 percentage points in the past year. Bristow questions Barrick’s lower valuation relative to Newmont, saying, “We have better-quality assets and are trading at a discount.”\nWhy has Barrick trailed rivals? Newmont, the only gold company in the S&P 500 index, pays a higher dividend—3.6%—based on a formula that ties its payout to gold prices.\nSome investors are disappointed that Barrick has not come up with a similar dividend formula. It pays nine cents a share quarterly and plans to issue a special dividend of about 42 cents a share this year from the proceeds of asset sales in 2020.\nThen there is Bristow’s interest in buying gold or copper companies, which has unsettled investors who fear that Barrick will overpay.\nThe CEO rebuffs such concerns. “Look at our merger-and-acquisition history and we haven’t screwed up once—I’m talking about me and my team,” he says, ticking off deals at Randgold, the Barrick merger, and the Newmont joint venture. “ I act like an owner because I am a big owner,” he says, noting that he holds over five million shares.\nAs a well-run gold-mining company, Barrick can be a hedge against financial turmoil. That’s an alluring find.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOLD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":845706648,"gmtCreate":1636364986232,"gmtModify":1636365061887,"author":{"id":"3571377316940818","authorId":"3571377316940818","name":"cd1212","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4d8cf7f29f6796356fd20aa69d30bb","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571377316940818","authorIdStr":"3571377316940818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>like pls","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>like pls","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$like 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