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下海寻妖

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09-17

我平仓了70.0股$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ ,去查看订单详情。

05-26

我平仓了200.0股$恒瑞医药(01276)$ ,去查看订单详情。

08-14

我平仓了140.0股$微博(WB)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

08-25

我平仓了45.0股$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

08-23

我开仓了70.0股$禾赛(HSAI)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

08-12

我平仓了1000.0股$吉利汽车(00175)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

08-01

我开仓了50.0股$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

05-29

我平仓了30.0股$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ ,去查看订单详情。

09-15

我平仓了30.0股$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ ,去查看订单详情。

08-22

我平仓了20.0股$三倍做多标普生物-Direxion(LABU)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

08-20

我开仓了50.0股$小米集团ADR(XIACY)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

08-18

我平仓了1000.0股$吉利汽车(00175)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

08-18

我平仓了20.0股$携程网(TCOM)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

08-16

我平仓了70.0股$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

08-06

我平仓了400.0股$极智嘉-W(02590)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

08-01

我开仓了35.0股$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

07-29

我平仓了200.0股$安井食品(02648)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

07-24

我开仓了50.0股$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

07-24

我平仓了200.0股$维立志博-B(09887)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

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t","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199628956516640","repostId":"1143362679","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143362679","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1689775478,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143362679?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-19 22:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"科技股领涨风险资产，散户大军卷土重来，什么信号？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143362679","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"狂欢可能不会持续太久。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：常嘉帅</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美股二季度财报季紧随着疲软的经济数据如期揭幕。对火热的股市而言，美联储的鹰声如耳旁风。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">事实上，仔细观察今日的美股，不难发现，美联储加息基本算是白加，2022年的熊市已经远去，市场已重回2021年的狂热。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">主要信号有两个：1）狂欢式上涨的科技股；2）卷土重来的散户大军。这一切如2021年重现，但当时随之而来的是惨烈的大跌。</p><h2 id=\"id_1207524829\" style=\"text-align: start;\">科技股狂欢式上涨</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从大盘来看，美联储500个基点的加息只加了个寂寞。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">16个月前，美联储开启本轮加息周期时，标普大盘收于4358点，本周二，标普大盘收于4555点，比加息开始的时候还要猛。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fb61456741fca8123cf2687d0d8634d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\">美股大盘已经超过了加息前的位置</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">带动指数上升的，主要是今年狂欢式上涨的大型科技股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由苹果、微软、谷歌、亚马逊、英伟达、特斯拉和Meta组成的“七姐妹”（Magnificent Seven），今年迄今总市值飙升60%，达到令人瞠目的近11万亿美元，大约相当于世界第四大经济体德国GDP的三倍。七姐妹目前占到标普500总市值的28%，高于年初的20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">追踪标普指数的资金大约有15万亿美元，也就是说，如果这七家公司里有一两家出现问题，就会给市场带来巨震。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，有市场参与者认为，类似的窄幅领涨行情此前也出现过，并且持续时间更长，今年的大涨也可被视为2022年大跌的逆转，而非崩盘的预兆。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">BI资深分析师Gillian Wolff此前对彭博新闻表示，七姐妹领涨大盘的情况并不可怕：</p><blockquote>“与互联网泡沫时期不同，这些公司中大部分盈利前景都很强劲。不过，未来几周的财报可能会起到决定性作用。”</blockquote><h2 id=\"id_154864828\" style=\"text-align: start;\">散户大军卷土重来</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Vanda Research的最新散户资金流数据显示：美股散户正在争先恐后杀入市场，主要通过美国科技股、电动汽车、债券和广泛的股票ETF继续追涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Vanda Research预计，整个财报季，散户的净买入量都会维持在高位。该机构指出，散户通常倾向于“逆向投资”，即“追涨杀跌”，如果股市保持上行趋势，未来预计还会有大量散户资金涌入。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9395c56ed6cf53ad391fa14598c6f150\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该机构称，<strong>自2020年美股散户人数大幅攀升以来，”散户交易者从未在财报季&#39;正式&#39;开始前如此积极地买入股票&#34;。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2966d3db4dbbc9ecb223f77d42dc86\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银基金经理调查报告也显示：尽管机构投资者倾向于低配股票，但根据 AAII（美国个人投资者协会）的数据，<strong>美国散户对股市的看涨情绪，已达到2021年以来的最高水平。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef2c1d8b259e0094f1ad8cba41aa025b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"254\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">散户买买买正在推动美国民众喜闻乐见的meme股暴涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今年迄今，MEME ETF累计上涨61%，明星meme股中，不乏一些涨幅吊打英伟达的超级赢家：比特币矿商Riot Platforms累涨439%，AI借贷平台Upstart Holdings累涨308%，Coinbase累涨196%，电动汽车股Carvana累涨了740%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，比特币今年的涨幅也高达80%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一切情绪指数都指向积极的方向：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">牛熊价差，即认为股市将走高的投资者与预期股市将下跌的投资者之间的差额，已连续六周为正值。这是自2021年11月以来牛熊价差为正值的最长一段时期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美国人对整体经济也越来越有信心</strong>。根据密歇根大学的调查，7月份的消费者信心指数从上个月的64.4跃升至72.6。这是自2021年9月以来的最高值，也是自2005年以来的最大增幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>投资者的恐慌已经基本消退</strong>。Cboe波动率指数（VIX）目前位于13点附近，该指数低于20即意味着市场对保险的需求很低。芝加哥期权交易所数据显示，看跌期权与看涨期权的比率，已降至2022年1月以来的最低水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/689f29ed3b62715f92c8bef13fcbafe2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Aptus Capital Advisors投资组合经理David Wagner对华尔街日报表示，自美联储3月份救助银行系统以来，投资者的担忧少了很多。他认为，<strong>目前唯一能阻止这波涨势的，就是大的风险重新摆上桌面</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，看空美股的市场参与者则相信，一场全面崩盘的完美风暴正在酝酿之中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2021 年末，散户投资者同样争先恐后地大举买入，但之后就遭遇了惨烈的熊市：<strong>年初散户蜂拥入市的时候，VIX指数和看跌期权与看涨期权比率同样处于低位；但到2022年1月初，三大股指均已见顶，标普500在一年里累计下跌了19%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">PNC资管集团CIO Amanda Agati对华尔街日报表示：</p><blockquote>“FOMO（害怕错过）情绪变得如此之大，以至于散户投资者在最后时刻蜂拥而入，这是最后的狂欢，正好赶上市场从峰顶滑落。”</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">令人担忧的不仅仅是市场的繁荣。借贷成本上升有可能导致经济放缓，扼杀企业信贷，使公司和家庭更难获得贷款。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在过去一年左右的时间里，汽车贷款和抵押贷款的利率飙升了约3个百分点。美联储数据显示，信用卡的利息已经从 16% 上升到了 22%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然通胀有所缓解，6月CPI同比回落至3%，但仍高于美联储2%的目标。美联储担忧，美国人会习惯于高通胀，因此在经济放缓之际仍然不断发出鹰声警告，一旦紧缩的政策持续下去，股市的狂欢不会持续太久。</p></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n科技股领涨风险资产，散户大军卷土重来，什么信号？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-19 22:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3693631><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：常嘉帅美股二季度财报季紧随着疲软的经济数据如期揭幕。对火热的股市而言，美联储的鹰声如耳旁风。事实上，仔细观察今日的美股，不难发现，美联储加息基本算是白加，2022年的熊市已经远去，市场已重回2021年的狂热。主要信号有两个：1）狂欢式上涨的科技股；2）卷土重来的散户大军。这一切如2021年重现，但当时随之而来的是惨烈的大跌。科技股狂欢式上涨从大盘来看，美联储500个基点的加息只加了个寂寞。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3693631\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ad453d1404f80bdd57419bc97bfad5","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3693631","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1143362679","content_text":"作者：常嘉帅美股二季度财报季紧随着疲软的经济数据如期揭幕。对火热的股市而言，美联储的鹰声如耳旁风。事实上，仔细观察今日的美股，不难发现，美联储加息基本算是白加，2022年的熊市已经远去，市场已重回2021年的狂热。主要信号有两个：1）狂欢式上涨的科技股；2）卷土重来的散户大军。这一切如2021年重现，但当时随之而来的是惨烈的大跌。科技股狂欢式上涨从大盘来看，美联储500个基点的加息只加了个寂寞。16个月前，美联储开启本轮加息周期时，标普大盘收于4358点，本周二，标普大盘收于4555点，比加息开始的时候还要猛。美股大盘已经超过了加息前的位置带动指数上升的，主要是今年狂欢式上涨的大型科技股。由苹果、微软、谷歌、亚马逊、英伟达、特斯拉和Meta组成的“七姐妹”（Magnificent Seven），今年迄今总市值飙升60%，达到令人瞠目的近11万亿美元，大约相当于世界第四大经济体德国GDP的三倍。七姐妹目前占到标普500总市值的28%，高于年初的20%。追踪标普指数的资金大约有15万亿美元，也就是说，如果这七家公司里有一两家出现问题，就会给市场带来巨震。不过，有市场参与者认为，类似的窄幅领涨行情此前也出现过，并且持续时间更长，今年的大涨也可被视为2022年大跌的逆转，而非崩盘的预兆。BI资深分析师Gillian Wolff此前对彭博新闻表示，七姐妹领涨大盘的情况并不可怕：“与互联网泡沫时期不同，这些公司中大部分盈利前景都很强劲。不过，未来几周的财报可能会起到决定性作用。”散户大军卷土重来Vanda Research的最新散户资金流数据显示：美股散户正在争先恐后杀入市场，主要通过美国科技股、电动汽车、债券和广泛的股票ETF继续追涨。Vanda Research预计，整个财报季，散户的净买入量都会维持在高位。该机构指出，散户通常倾向于“逆向投资”，即“追涨杀跌”，如果股市保持上行趋势，未来预计还会有大量散户资金涌入。该机构称，自2020年美股散户人数大幅攀升以来，”散户交易者从未在财报季'正式'开始前如此积极地买入股票\"。美银基金经理调查报告也显示：尽管机构投资者倾向于低配股票，但根据 AAII（美国个人投资者协会）的数据，美国散户对股市的看涨情绪，已达到2021年以来的最高水平。散户买买买正在推动美国民众喜闻乐见的meme股暴涨。今年迄今，MEME ETF累计上涨61%，明星meme股中，不乏一些涨幅吊打英伟达的超级赢家：比特币矿商Riot Platforms累涨439%，AI借贷平台Upstart Holdings累涨308%，Coinbase累涨196%，电动汽车股Carvana累涨了740%。此外，比特币今年的涨幅也高达80%。一切情绪指数都指向积极的方向：牛熊价差，即认为股市将走高的投资者与预期股市将下跌的投资者之间的差额，已连续六周为正值。这是自2021年11月以来牛熊价差为正值的最长一段时期。美国人对整体经济也越来越有信心。根据密歇根大学的调查，7月份的消费者信心指数从上个月的64.4跃升至72.6。这是自2021年9月以来的最高值，也是自2005年以来的最大增幅。投资者的恐慌已经基本消退。Cboe波动率指数（VIX）目前位于13点附近，该指数低于20即意味着市场对保险的需求很低。芝加哥期权交易所数据显示，看跌期权与看涨期权的比率，已降至2022年1月以来的最低水平。Aptus Capital Advisors投资组合经理David Wagner对华尔街日报表示，自美联储3月份救助银行系统以来，投资者的担忧少了很多。他认为，目前唯一能阻止这波涨势的，就是大的风险重新摆上桌面。不过，看空美股的市场参与者则相信，一场全面崩盘的完美风暴正在酝酿之中。2021 年末，散户投资者同样争先恐后地大举买入，但之后就遭遇了惨烈的熊市：年初散户蜂拥入市的时候，VIX指数和看跌期权与看涨期权比率同样处于低位；但到2022年1月初，三大股指均已见顶，标普500在一年里累计下跌了19%。PNC资管集团CIO Amanda Agati对华尔街日报表示：“FOMO（害怕错过）情绪变得如此之大，以至于散户投资者在最后时刻蜂拥而入，这是最后的狂欢，正好赶上市场从峰顶滑落。”令人担忧的不仅仅是市场的繁荣。借贷成本上升有可能导致经济放缓，扼杀企业信贷，使公司和家庭更难获得贷款。在过去一年左右的时间里，汽车贷款和抵押贷款的利率飙升了约3个百分点。美联储数据显示，信用卡的利息已经从 16% 上升到了 22%。虽然通胀有所缓解，6月CPI同比回落至3%，但仍高于美联储2%的目标。美联储担忧，美国人会习惯于高通胀，因此在经济放缓之际仍然不断发出鹰声警告，一旦紧缩的政策持续下去，股市的狂欢不会持续太久。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628637231,"gmtCreate":1673147086223,"gmtModify":1673149783307,"author":{"id":"3571453680364385","authorId":"3571453680364385","name":"下海寻妖","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571453680364385","authorIdStr":"3571453680364385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"接近30%的渗透率....感情都是网约车？ 一大半还都是suv车型，我打车怎么没打到过suv？","listText":"接近30%的渗透率....感情都是网约车？ 一大半还都是suv车型，我打车怎么没打到过suv？","text":"接近30%的渗透率....感情都是网约车？ 一大半还都是suv车型，我打车怎么没打到过suv？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628637231","repostId":"2301681752","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":684278140,"gmtCreate":1660362954382,"gmtModify":1660363073563,"author":{"id":"3571453680364385","authorId":"3571453680364385","name":"下海寻妖","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571453680364385","authorIdStr":"3571453680364385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"bh","listText":"bh","text":"bh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/684278140","repostId":"1110414306","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":616506378,"gmtCreate":1651812998794,"gmtModify":1651814573846,"author":{"id":"3571453680364385","authorId":"3571453680364385","name":"下海寻妖","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571453680364385","authorIdStr":"3571453680364385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"先数数上海大街上有几辆车在开吧","listText":"先数数上海大街上有几辆车在开吧","text":"先数数上海大街上有几辆车在开吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616506378","repostId":"2233872577","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2233872577","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1651797283,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2233872577?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-06 08:34","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"为什么特斯拉建个上海新车间都能上热搜？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2233872577","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"没有哪座汽车城不想成为1953年的底特律。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>最近两天，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>上海第二工厂传闻不断。</p><p>起因是路透社报道的那封信，在感谢上海市政府帮助其复工复产的基础上，特斯拉提到将在一期工厂旁边再建一座「新工厂」，预计将增加45万辆汽车的年产能，包括Model 3和Model Y，成为「世界上最大的汽车出口枢纽」。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48403a9033fdf682a077f2f5311b2788\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"889\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>加上目前上海工厂50万辆的年产能，临港或将成为特斯拉首座产量突破100万辆的工厂，同时也是全球第一座产量突破100万辆的纯电汽车工厂。</p><p>目前舆论聚焦的「二厂」和「扩产」之争特斯拉官方已经回应了，<b>全新的地块是扩产，而不是「第二工厂」</b>。而且现有的临港工厂，已经经过了A/B/C三个阶段建设，并且均有相应的环境评估公示——公示名字均为上海超级工厂(一期)。但二厂和扩产之争，其实不是这次舆论狂欢的本质。<b>为什么LG南京电池工厂没有获得同样的曝光量？为什么传统车企建新厂评论区一潭死水？偏偏是特斯拉建个新车间，全网都在聊？</b>是什么已经板上钉钉，为什么才是问题本质。</p><h2><b>一、「我最懂制造」</b></h2><p>上个月的TED访谈里面，马斯克大方表示「我是地球上最懂制造的人」。</p><p>放在2017年之前，这句话应该不成立。毕竟世界上最懂制造的人，不会因为一款车的产能爬坡睡在工厂沙发里面。</p><p>但劳其筋骨，往往是承担大任的前提。</p><p>4月8日得州工厂开业活动上，马斯克说<b>「the factory is the product 工厂即产品」</b>。从2017年睡工厂到2022年连开两座新工厂，这5个单词就是马斯克学到的，也是做到的。</p><p>工厂即产品，同时也是舆论疯狂追逐特斯拉新工厂的原因，之一。</p><p>如果我们将每一座giga factory当做特斯拉某一时期最大型的产品，那么我们可以简单总结出它在制造领域，某一时期的世界观，以及方法论。</p><p>Fremont是特斯拉的老家，但可能永远不会是最先进的特斯拉工厂。对于Fremont来说，把车造出来，是优先度最高的任务——另外，Fremont未来一段时间内，会是特斯拉高端车型S/X的生产地。</p><p>得州工厂是特斯拉一众「期货」产品的量产地，同时是「工厂即产品」思维的终极体现——把工厂做成芯片，各个环节之间的「信号延迟」最小化、生产效率最大化。</p><p>至于上海工厂，<b>则是特斯拉「刷经验」的地方</b>。</p><p>从2019年三季度马斯克访沪验收开始，特斯拉对上海工厂的描述一直都围绕在两个方面：<b>积累大规模生产的经验、积累降本增效的经验</b>。每家工厂独特而鲜明的分工，这是马斯克产品思维建车间的结果，<b>而产品是有讨论度、有拉踩和追捧的，工厂没有。</b></p><p>这在传统汽车世界根本不可想象——什么，工厂也有粉丝效应？</p><p>Giga Texas和Giga Shanghai的粉丝因为4680电池打起来了？除了很互联网、很不汽车的制造思维，上海工厂本身，同样是此次全网热议的原因。2021年度财报文件里面，特斯拉对上海工厂的定义是「export hub出口枢纽」。</p><p>而在路透社的报道中，同样提到上海工厂会成为<b>「全球最大的汽车出口枢纽」。</b>我们来看目前上海工厂的规划产能：＞45万辆，<b>2021年实际生产了48+万辆</b>，我们就算一期最大50万辆吧。</p><p>这次路透社报道的工厂二期，预计也将增加45万辆产能，我们也算最终能达到50万辆，这意味着<b>上海工厂拥有100万辆年产能的潜力</b>。这与目前全球最大汽车工厂——现代韩国蔚山工厂153万辆年产能还有一点差距。</p><p>但另一个数据是，蔚山工厂占地面积达到了500万平方米，特斯拉临港工厂目前接近50万辆的产能，只用了86万平方米。2023年，我们能见证上海以更高的效率，成为全球最大电动汽车出口城市吗？</p><h2><b>二、一间厂、一条链、一座城</b></h2><p>前几天讨论所谓「特斯拉中国第二工厂」的时候，一个很重要的议题是<b>「为什么在上海？」</b>，由此衍生出来的还有<b>「为什么不在宁波/珠海/广州/沈阳？」</b>，等等。</p><p>为什么会出现这样的讨论？因为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>电动汽车作为新兴的制造业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5HT.SI\">皇冠</a>，<b>对于一个城市甚至城市群的税收就业、产业带动、地区名片</b>，都拥有无可替代的作用。</p><p>举一个反例，2013年7月18日，底特律市政府申请破产。</p><p>1950年代伴随着美国汽车走向全球，底特律人口达到185万的时候，没有人能想到60年后它会溃败成67万人口的小城，也没有人能想到传统美式汽车的消亡，会摧毁一座曾经的全球工业重镇。</p><p><b>没有哪座汽车城想成为2013年的底特律，也没有哪座汽车城不想成为1953年的底特律</b>，因此当智能化、电动化的机遇到来，闻风而动是必须的。</p><p>上海已经享受过一次踩在风口上的滋味。</p><p>2021年特斯拉上海工厂产量48.413万辆，占特斯拉全球总产量51.7%——换句话说，临港工厂创造了<b>超过1500亿</b>的汽车产值。</p><p>另外两个数字是，<b>上海2021年汽车产业总产值7585.55亿元，新能源汽车产业总产值1772.56亿元</b>。</p><p>除了最直接的数字，供应链集群同样是特斯拉为上海，乃至长三角城市群，甚至是国内新能源汽车供应链带来的优势。</p><p>根据特斯拉发布的2021年度报告，中国地区生产的车型，其零件本土化率高居全球第一，达到了86%，北美老家也仅有73%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b30a39a24bdb6e23cf4b95b3f7bd694\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>另外，根据开源证券的一份特斯拉国产供应链调查报告，特斯拉本土自产零件以外，第三方国产供应链平均单车价值贡献超过了10万元。</p><p>这两组数据，会不会让你想到另一家企业？</p><p>根据2021年公布的《2020供应商责任进展报告》，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>全球200家主要供应商里面，<b>中国占了98家，新增11家供应商，无论是总数还是新增，均位列所有参与苹果供应链的国家里最高</b>，而且有155家苹果供应商在中国境内开设了工厂。</p><p>苹果是移动互联时代的旗帜，苹果的崛起，同时也是移动设备供应链企业、乃至城市的崛起。</p><p>深圳号称「苹果手机的尽头」，是上一个十年的苹果设备制造地，也是这一个十年国产手机的角斗场。</p><p>为什么这样说？因为你能在华强北找到几乎所有手机所有零件的供应商，可以在数十个小店凑齐一部iPhone所有的零件。凭借苹果形成的深圳智能手机供应圈，早已是所有手机厂商必须拜的码头。</p><p>之所以会出现「特斯拉工厂争夺战」这样的讨论，本质与深圳+苹果类似，在于<b>新兴行业+领先企业+集群效应的「三重诱惑」。</b></p><p><b>同样的道理，我们还看到了集聚<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002074\">国轩高科</a>、中航锂电的合肥；凑齐小米、理想、沙龙、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>的北京经开区。</b></p><p>有人的地方就有江湖，有企业集聚的地方就有产业。</p><h2><b>三、从车间到趋势</b></h2><p>当我们为了特斯拉中国第二工厂的又一次传闻争论不休，我们本质上是在聊什么？</p><p>答案包括了新工厂的产能、新技术、特斯拉距离2000万年销量的小目标又近了一些、自己喜欢的城市会不会拥有一座特斯拉工厂...等等。</p><p>但从观察者的角度出发，一座新行业新公司建的新工厂，对于城市的吸引力，同样是此次特斯拉上海二厂风波我们观察到耐人寻味的点，更是此次争论愈发热烈的重要原因。</p><p><b>智能电动汽车变革，其实不仅在于新老车企的更迭，还体现在抓住机遇崛起的勇敢城市。</b></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>为什么特斯拉建个上海新车间都能上热搜？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n为什么特斯拉建个上海新车间都能上热搜？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-06 08:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3658634><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>最近两天，特斯拉上海第二工厂传闻不断。起因是路透社报道的那封信，在感谢上海市政府帮助其复工复产的基础上，特斯拉提到将在一期工厂旁边再建一座「新工厂」，预计将增加45万辆汽车的年产能，包括Model 3和Model Y，成为「世界上最大的汽车出口枢纽」。加上目前上海工厂50万辆的年产能，临港或将成为特斯拉首座产量突破100万辆的工厂，同时也是全球第一座产量突破100万辆的纯电汽车工厂。目前舆论聚焦的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3658634\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d695ec0cc530efc680a696604e078f14","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3658634","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2233872577","content_text":"最近两天，特斯拉上海第二工厂传闻不断。起因是路透社报道的那封信，在感谢上海市政府帮助其复工复产的基础上，特斯拉提到将在一期工厂旁边再建一座「新工厂」，预计将增加45万辆汽车的年产能，包括Model 3和Model Y，成为「世界上最大的汽车出口枢纽」。加上目前上海工厂50万辆的年产能，临港或将成为特斯拉首座产量突破100万辆的工厂，同时也是全球第一座产量突破100万辆的纯电汽车工厂。目前舆论聚焦的「二厂」和「扩产」之争特斯拉官方已经回应了，全新的地块是扩产，而不是「第二工厂」。而且现有的临港工厂，已经经过了A/B/C三个阶段建设，并且均有相应的环境评估公示——公示名字均为上海超级工厂(一期)。但二厂和扩产之争，其实不是这次舆论狂欢的本质。为什么LG南京电池工厂没有获得同样的曝光量？为什么传统车企建新厂评论区一潭死水？偏偏是特斯拉建个新车间，全网都在聊？是什么已经板上钉钉，为什么才是问题本质。一、「我最懂制造」上个月的TED访谈里面，马斯克大方表示「我是地球上最懂制造的人」。放在2017年之前，这句话应该不成立。毕竟世界上最懂制造的人，不会因为一款车的产能爬坡睡在工厂沙发里面。但劳其筋骨，往往是承担大任的前提。4月8日得州工厂开业活动上，马斯克说「the factory is the product 工厂即产品」。从2017年睡工厂到2022年连开两座新工厂，这5个单词就是马斯克学到的，也是做到的。工厂即产品，同时也是舆论疯狂追逐特斯拉新工厂的原因，之一。如果我们将每一座giga factory当做特斯拉某一时期最大型的产品，那么我们可以简单总结出它在制造领域，某一时期的世界观，以及方法论。Fremont是特斯拉的老家，但可能永远不会是最先进的特斯拉工厂。对于Fremont来说，把车造出来，是优先度最高的任务——另外，Fremont未来一段时间内，会是特斯拉高端车型S/X的生产地。得州工厂是特斯拉一众「期货」产品的量产地，同时是「工厂即产品」思维的终极体现——把工厂做成芯片，各个环节之间的「信号延迟」最小化、生产效率最大化。至于上海工厂，则是特斯拉「刷经验」的地方。从2019年三季度马斯克访沪验收开始，特斯拉对上海工厂的描述一直都围绕在两个方面：积累大规模生产的经验、积累降本增效的经验。每家工厂独特而鲜明的分工，这是马斯克产品思维建车间的结果，而产品是有讨论度、有拉踩和追捧的，工厂没有。这在传统汽车世界根本不可想象——什么，工厂也有粉丝效应？Giga Texas和Giga Shanghai的粉丝因为4680电池打起来了？除了很互联网、很不汽车的制造思维，上海工厂本身，同样是此次全网热议的原因。2021年度财报文件里面，特斯拉对上海工厂的定义是「export hub出口枢纽」。而在路透社的报道中，同样提到上海工厂会成为「全球最大的汽车出口枢纽」。我们来看目前上海工厂的规划产能：＞45万辆，2021年实际生产了48+万辆，我们就算一期最大50万辆吧。这次路透社报道的工厂二期，预计也将增加45万辆产能，我们也算最终能达到50万辆，这意味着上海工厂拥有100万辆年产能的潜力。这与目前全球最大汽车工厂——现代韩国蔚山工厂153万辆年产能还有一点差距。但另一个数据是，蔚山工厂占地面积达到了500万平方米，特斯拉临港工厂目前接近50万辆的产能，只用了86万平方米。2023年，我们能见证上海以更高的效率，成为全球最大电动汽车出口城市吗？二、一间厂、一条链、一座城前几天讨论所谓「特斯拉中国第二工厂」的时候，一个很重要的议题是「为什么在上海？」，由此衍生出来的还有「为什么不在宁波/珠海/广州/沈阳？」，等等。为什么会出现这样的讨论？因为智能电动汽车作为新兴的制造业皇冠，对于一个城市甚至城市群的税收就业、产业带动、地区名片，都拥有无可替代的作用。举一个反例，2013年7月18日，底特律市政府申请破产。1950年代伴随着美国汽车走向全球，底特律人口达到185万的时候，没有人能想到60年后它会溃败成67万人口的小城，也没有人能想到传统美式汽车的消亡，会摧毁一座曾经的全球工业重镇。没有哪座汽车城想成为2013年的底特律，也没有哪座汽车城不想成为1953年的底特律，因此当智能化、电动化的机遇到来，闻风而动是必须的。上海已经享受过一次踩在风口上的滋味。2021年特斯拉上海工厂产量48.413万辆，占特斯拉全球总产量51.7%——换句话说，临港工厂创造了超过1500亿的汽车产值。另外两个数字是，上海2021年汽车产业总产值7585.55亿元，新能源汽车产业总产值1772.56亿元。除了最直接的数字，供应链集群同样是特斯拉为上海，乃至长三角城市群，甚至是国内新能源汽车供应链带来的优势。根据特斯拉发布的2021年度报告，中国地区生产的车型，其零件本土化率高居全球第一，达到了86%，北美老家也仅有73%。另外，根据开源证券的一份特斯拉国产供应链调查报告，特斯拉本土自产零件以外，第三方国产供应链平均单车价值贡献超过了10万元。这两组数据，会不会让你想到另一家企业？根据2021年公布的《2020供应商责任进展报告》，苹果全球200家主要供应商里面，中国占了98家，新增11家供应商，无论是总数还是新增，均位列所有参与苹果供应链的国家里最高，而且有155家苹果供应商在中国境内开设了工厂。苹果是移动互联时代的旗帜，苹果的崛起，同时也是移动设备供应链企业、乃至城市的崛起。深圳号称「苹果手机的尽头」，是上一个十年的苹果设备制造地，也是这一个十年国产手机的角斗场。为什么这样说？因为你能在华强北找到几乎所有手机所有零件的供应商，可以在数十个小店凑齐一部iPhone所有的零件。凭借苹果形成的深圳智能手机供应圈，早已是所有手机厂商必须拜的码头。之所以会出现「特斯拉工厂争夺战」这样的讨论，本质与深圳+苹果类似，在于新兴行业+领先企业+集群效应的「三重诱惑」。同样的道理，我们还看到了集聚蔚来、比亚迪、国轩高科、中航锂电的合肥；凑齐小米、理想、沙龙、百度的北京经开区。有人的地方就有江湖，有企业集聚的地方就有产业。三、从车间到趋势当我们为了特斯拉中国第二工厂的又一次传闻争论不休，我们本质上是在聊什么？答案包括了新工厂的产能、新技术、特斯拉距离2000万年销量的小目标又近了一些、自己喜欢的城市会不会拥有一座特斯拉工厂...等等。但从观察者的角度出发，一座新行业新公司建的新工厂，对于城市的吸引力，同样是此次特斯拉上海二厂风波我们观察到耐人寻味的点，更是此次争论愈发热烈的重要原因。智能电动汽车变革，其实不仅在于新老车企的更迭，还体现在抓住机遇崛起的勇敢城市。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":479616305861336,"gmtCreate":1758117753257,"gmtModify":1758117755877,"author":{"id":"3571453680364385","authorId":"3571453680364385","name":"下海寻妖","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571453680364385","authorIdStr":"3571453680364385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了70.0股<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$&nbsp;</a>,去查看订单详情。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010588\">@小虎看单</a>","text":"我平仓了20.0股$携程网(TCOM)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/468795907223992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":468022370435200,"gmtCreate":1755280468117,"gmtModify":1755294296595,"author":{"id":"3571453680364385","authorId":"3571453680364385","name":"下海寻妖","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571453680364385","authorIdStr":"3571453680364385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了70.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHA\">$霸王茶姬(CHA)$&nbsp;</a>,去查看订单详情。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010588\">@小虎看单</a>","listText":"我平仓了70.0股<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02590\">$极智嘉-W(02590)$&nbsp;</a>,去查看订单详情。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010588\">@小虎看单</a>","text":"我平仓了400.0股$极智嘉-W(02590)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/464645489856808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":463060226752992,"gmtCreate":1754057194283,"gmtModify":1759543795075,"author":{"id":"3571453680364385","authorId":"3571453680364385","name":"下海寻妖","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571453680364385","authorIdStr":"3571453680364385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了35.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$&nbsp;</a>,去查看订单详情。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010588\">@小虎看单</a>","listText":"我开仓了35.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$&nbsp;</a>,去查看订单详情。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010588\">@小虎看单</a>","text":"我开仓了35.0股$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/463060226752992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":36,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":461795238646072,"gmtCreate":1753761621880,"gmtModify":1753762801391,"author":{"id":"3571453680364385","authorId":"3571453680364385","name":"下海寻妖","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571453680364385","authorIdStr":"3571453680364385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了200.0股<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHA\">$霸王茶姬(CHA)$&nbsp;</a>,去查看订单详情。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010588\">@小虎看单</a>","listText":"我开仓了50.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHA\">$霸王茶姬(CHA)$&nbsp;</a>,去查看订单详情。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010588\">@小虎看单</a>","text":"我开仓了50.0股$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/460230960849160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":460129234731200,"gmtCreate":1753345829188,"gmtModify":1753347103700,"author":{"id":"3571453680364385","authorId":"3571453680364385","name":"下海寻妖","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571453680364385","authorIdStr":"3571453680364385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了200.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09887\">$维立志博-B(09887)$&nbsp;</a>,去查看订单详情。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010588\">@小虎看单</a>","listText":"我平仓了200.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09887\">$维立志博-B(09887)$&nbsp;</a>,去查看订单详情。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010588\">@小虎看单</a>","text":"我平仓了200.0股$维立志博-B(09887)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/460129234731200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}