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ChiiKang

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2021-08-24

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2021-07-09

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Disney shares rises nearly 2%,as Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.<blockquote>随着上海迪士尼乐园将价格提高到10%，迪士尼股价上涨近2%。</blockquote>

2021-04-21

wishing for more bad news for tesla then I can buy the dip

Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价早盘下跌超过 2%</blockquote>

2021-02-23

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2021-08-21

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Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>

2021-07-26

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2021-05-23

like and comment thank you kind ones

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2021-11-18

comment thx

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2021-10-25

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2021-09-14

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09:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix Is Entering a New Era, Leaving Its Haters in the Dust<blockquote>Netflix 正在进入一个新时代，将其仇恨者抛在脑后</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131198254","media":"Barrons","summary":"With its earnings report this past week,Netflix has blown up the bear case on the stock.\nOn Wall Str","content":"<p>With its earnings report this past week,Netflix&nbsp;has blown up the bear case on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>随着上周的财报发布， Netflix 打破了该股的熊市理由。</blockquote></p><p> On Wall Street, there’s been a long-running debate on whether the Netflix (ticker: NFLX) model would work in the long run. The revenue model is indirect: Netflix creates or buys content, generating revenue by signing and keeping subscribers. For years, it tapped the debt markets to fund content creation. Skeptics thought the company might never generate enough revenue to self-finance new content. Bulls always knew content costs would increase over time, but they had faith that subscriber revenue would grow faster and that Netflix eventually would become a self-sufficient, cash-flow-generating machine.</p><p><blockquote>在华尔街，关于 Netflix（股票代码：NFLX）模式是否长期可行一直存在争论。收入模式是间接的：Netflix 创建或购买内容，通过签约和留住订阅者来产生收入。多年来，它一直利用债务市场为内容创作提供资金。怀疑论者认为该公司可能永远不会产生足够的收入来自我资助新内容。多头一直知道内容成本会随着时间的推移而增加，但他们相信订户收入会增长得更快，Netflix 最终将成为一台自给自足的现金流产生机器。</blockquote></p><p> In the first half of 2021, skeptics had the upper hand, and the stock flatlined. The pace of new content introductions slowed, due to pandemic-related production issues, and subscriber additions swooned, bottoming at a worst-ever 1.5 million net adds in the June quarter.</p><p><blockquote>2021年上半年，怀疑论者占据上风，股价持平。由于与大流行相关的制作问题，新内容推出的步伐放缓，订阅者数量急剧下降，6 月份季度净增量跌至有史以来最差的 150 万。</blockquote></p><p> But the company’s better-than-expected third-quarter report turned the tables. Netflix added 4.4 million net new subscribers, boosting its total to 213.6 million, well above its own forecast. It expects to add another 8.5 million net new subscribers in the December quarter, in line with its fourth-quarter performance over the past three years.</p><p><blockquote>但该公司好于预期的第三季度报告扭转了局面。Netflix 净增新用户 440 万，使其总数达到 2.136 亿，远高于自己的预测。该公司预计 12 月份季度将新增 850 万净用户，与过去三年第四季度的业绩一致。</blockquote></p><p> Netflix says it will no longer need to borrow to finance new content and expects to be free-cash-flow positive in 2022 and beyond. It has begun buying back stock—$100 million in the latest quarter—while making acquisitions in its core business and in its emerging interest, mobile gaming.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix 表示，它将不再需要借款来资助新内容，并预计 2022 年及以后的自由现金流将为正。该公司已开始回购股票（最近一个季度回购了 1 亿美元），同时收购其核心业务和新兴兴趣移动游戏。</blockquote></p><p> While the company continues to show rapid subscriber growth in Europe and Asia, growth in the U.S. market has slowed to a trickle. But Co-CEO Reed Hastings still sees a huge opportunity to expand the company’s domestic position. In its quarterly letter to shareholders this past week, Netflix noted that streaming video still accounts for just 28% of overall U.S. TV viewing hours—with Netflix at just 6% of the total—even as consumers continue to cut the cord.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司在欧洲和亚洲的用户继续快速增长，但美国市场的增长已经放缓至涓涓细流。但联合首席执行官里德-黑斯廷斯（Reed Hastings）仍然看到了扩大公司国内地位的巨大机遇。Netflix 在上周致股东的季度信中指出，尽管消费者继续削减观看次数，但流媒体视频仍仅占美国电视总观看时间的 28%，其中 Netflix 仅占总数的 6%。</blockquote></p><p> It is tempting to tie the strong third quarter to the launch of the Korean-language series <i>Squid Game</i>, which, as Netflix noted, was viewed by 142 million households in the first four weeks since launch, making it the company’s most successful new series ever. But the real power of the Netflix model is its gigantic content budget, which is producing an array of popular shows—<i>Stranger Things, Ozark, Bridgerton, You, The Queen’s Gambit, Lupin</i>, and <i>Tiger King</i>, to name a few.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易将第三季度的强劲表现与韩语系列的推出联系起来<i>鱿鱼游戏</i>正如 Netflix 所指出的，该剧在开播后的前四周就有 1.42 亿个家庭观看，成为该公司有史以来最成功的新剧。但 Netflix 模式的真正力量在于其庞大的内容预算，它正在制作一系列受欢迎的节目——<i>《怪奇物语》、《欧扎克》、《布里奇顿》、《你》、《女王的策略》、《鲁邦》</i>，和<i>虎王</i>，仅举几例。</blockquote></p><p> “The company appears to operate in a virtuous cycle,” Pivotal Research analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak wrote. As the subscriber base grows—and average revenue per user rises as Netflix gradually boosts monthly fees—the more it can spend on original content. That expands the potential target market and reduces churn, bolsters its ability to boost prices, and improves its position.</p><p><blockquote>“Pivotal Research 分析师杰弗里-沃达恰克（Jeffrey Wlodarczak）写道：”该公司似乎处于良性循环中。随着用户群的增长——随着 Netflix 逐步提高月费，每个用户的平均收入也在增加——它可以在原创内容上花费的钱就越多。这扩大了潜在的目标市场并减少了流失，增强了其提高价格的能力，并改善了其地位。</blockquote></p><p> Netflix is adding new elements to its mix, too. The company’s nascent move into videogaming has the potential to shake up gaming in the same way it has driven dramatic change in the TV business. Most mobile games are either sold directly to consumers or supported by advertising and in-game purchases. Netflix intends to tack gaming on to its subscription plan at no extra cost, and without ads or other extra revenue sources.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix 也在其组合中添加新的元素。该公司刚刚进军视频游戏领域，有可能像推动电视业务发生巨大变化一样，撼动游戏行业。大多数手机游戏要么直接销售给消费者，要么通过广告和游戏内购买来支持。Netflix 打算在其订阅计划中添加游戏，无需额外成本，也无需广告或其他额外收入来源。</blockquote></p><p> It’s the Netflix model as its purest: find ways to drive more subscribers and keep them around.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix 模式是最纯粹的： 想办法吸引更多用户，让他们留下来。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix Is Entering a New Era, Leaving Its Haters in the Dust<blockquote>Netflix 正在进入一个新时代，将其仇恨者抛在脑后</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix Is Entering a New Era, Leaving Its Haters in the Dust<blockquote>Netflix 正在进入一个新时代，将其仇恨者抛在脑后</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-25 09:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With its earnings report this past week,Netflix&nbsp;has blown up the bear case on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>随着上周的财报发布， Netflix 打破了该股的熊市理由。</blockquote></p><p> On Wall Street, there’s been a long-running debate on whether the Netflix (ticker: NFLX) model would work in the long run. The revenue model is indirect: Netflix creates or buys content, generating revenue by signing and keeping subscribers. For years, it tapped the debt markets to fund content creation. Skeptics thought the company might never generate enough revenue to self-finance new content. Bulls always knew content costs would increase over time, but they had faith that subscriber revenue would grow faster and that Netflix eventually would become a self-sufficient, cash-flow-generating machine.</p><p><blockquote>在华尔街，关于 Netflix（股票代码：NFLX）模式是否长期可行一直存在争论。收入模式是间接的：Netflix 创建或购买内容，通过签约和留住订阅者来产生收入。多年来，它一直利用债务市场为内容创作提供资金。怀疑论者认为该公司可能永远不会产生足够的收入来自我资助新内容。多头一直知道内容成本会随着时间的推移而增加，但他们相信订户收入会增长得更快，Netflix 最终将成为一台自给自足的现金流产生机器。</blockquote></p><p> In the first half of 2021, skeptics had the upper hand, and the stock flatlined. The pace of new content introductions slowed, due to pandemic-related production issues, and subscriber additions swooned, bottoming at a worst-ever 1.5 million net adds in the June quarter.</p><p><blockquote>2021年上半年，怀疑论者占据上风，股价持平。由于与大流行相关的制作问题，新内容推出的步伐放缓，订阅者数量急剧下降，6 月份季度净增量跌至有史以来最差的 150 万。</blockquote></p><p> But the company’s better-than-expected third-quarter report turned the tables. Netflix added 4.4 million net new subscribers, boosting its total to 213.6 million, well above its own forecast. It expects to add another 8.5 million net new subscribers in the December quarter, in line with its fourth-quarter performance over the past three years.</p><p><blockquote>但该公司好于预期的第三季度报告扭转了局面。Netflix 净增新用户 440 万，使其总数达到 2.136 亿，远高于自己的预测。该公司预计 12 月份季度将新增 850 万净用户，与过去三年第四季度的业绩一致。</blockquote></p><p> Netflix says it will no longer need to borrow to finance new content and expects to be free-cash-flow positive in 2022 and beyond. It has begun buying back stock—$100 million in the latest quarter—while making acquisitions in its core business and in its emerging interest, mobile gaming.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix 表示，它将不再需要借款来资助新内容，并预计 2022 年及以后的自由现金流将为正。该公司已开始回购股票（最近一个季度回购了 1 亿美元），同时收购其核心业务和新兴兴趣移动游戏。</blockquote></p><p> While the company continues to show rapid subscriber growth in Europe and Asia, growth in the U.S. market has slowed to a trickle. But Co-CEO Reed Hastings still sees a huge opportunity to expand the company’s domestic position. In its quarterly letter to shareholders this past week, Netflix noted that streaming video still accounts for just 28% of overall U.S. TV viewing hours—with Netflix at just 6% of the total—even as consumers continue to cut the cord.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司在欧洲和亚洲的用户继续快速增长，但美国市场的增长已经放缓至涓涓细流。但联合首席执行官里德-黑斯廷斯（Reed Hastings）仍然看到了扩大公司国内地位的巨大机遇。Netflix 在上周致股东的季度信中指出，尽管消费者继续削减观看次数，但流媒体视频仍仅占美国电视总观看时间的 28%，其中 Netflix 仅占总数的 6%。</blockquote></p><p> It is tempting to tie the strong third quarter to the launch of the Korean-language series <i>Squid Game</i>, which, as Netflix noted, was viewed by 142 million households in the first four weeks since launch, making it the company’s most successful new series ever. But the real power of the Netflix model is its gigantic content budget, which is producing an array of popular shows—<i>Stranger Things, Ozark, Bridgerton, You, The Queen’s Gambit, Lupin</i>, and <i>Tiger King</i>, to name a few.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易将第三季度的强劲表现与韩语系列的推出联系起来<i>鱿鱼游戏</i>正如 Netflix 所指出的，该剧在开播后的前四周就有 1.42 亿个家庭观看，成为该公司有史以来最成功的新剧。但 Netflix 模式的真正力量在于其庞大的内容预算，它正在制作一系列受欢迎的节目——<i>《怪奇物语》、《欧扎克》、《布里奇顿》、《你》、《女王的策略》、《鲁邦》</i>，和<i>虎王</i>，仅举几例。</blockquote></p><p> “The company appears to operate in a virtuous cycle,” Pivotal Research analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak wrote. As the subscriber base grows—and average revenue per user rises as Netflix gradually boosts monthly fees—the more it can spend on original content. That expands the potential target market and reduces churn, bolsters its ability to boost prices, and improves its position.</p><p><blockquote>“Pivotal Research 分析师杰弗里-沃达恰克（Jeffrey Wlodarczak）写道：”该公司似乎处于良性循环中。随着用户群的增长——随着 Netflix 逐步提高月费，每个用户的平均收入也在增加——它可以在原创内容上花费的钱就越多。这扩大了潜在的目标市场并减少了流失，增强了其提高价格的能力，并改善了其地位。</blockquote></p><p> Netflix is adding new elements to its mix, too. The company’s nascent move into videogaming has the potential to shake up gaming in the same way it has driven dramatic change in the TV business. Most mobile games are either sold directly to consumers or supported by advertising and in-game purchases. Netflix intends to tack gaming on to its subscription plan at no extra cost, and without ads or other extra revenue sources.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix 也在其组合中添加新的元素。该公司刚刚进军视频游戏领域，有可能像推动电视业务发生巨大变化一样，撼动游戏行业。大多数手机游戏要么直接销售给消费者，要么通过广告和游戏内购买来支持。Netflix 打算在其订阅计划中添加游戏，无需额外成本，也无需广告或其他额外收入来源。</blockquote></p><p> It’s the Netflix model as its purest: find ways to drive more subscribers and keep them around.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix 模式是最纯粹的： 想办法吸引更多用户，让他们留下来。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-stock-price-new-era-content-51634859727?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-stock-price-new-era-content-51634859727?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131198254","content_text":"With its earnings report this past week,Netflix has blown up the bear case on the stock.\nOn Wall Street, there’s been a long-running debate on whether the Netflix (ticker: NFLX) model would work in the long run. The revenue model is indirect: Netflix creates or buys content, generating revenue by signing and keeping subscribers. For years, it tapped the debt markets to fund content creation. Skeptics thought the company might never generate enough revenue to self-finance new content. Bulls always knew content costs would increase over time, but they had faith that subscriber revenue would grow faster and that Netflix eventually would become a self-sufficient, cash-flow-generating machine.\nIn the first half of 2021, skeptics had the upper hand, and the stock flatlined. The pace of new content introductions slowed, due to pandemic-related production issues, and subscriber additions swooned, bottoming at a worst-ever 1.5 million net adds in the June quarter.\nBut the company’s better-than-expected third-quarter report turned the tables. Netflix added 4.4 million net new subscribers, boosting its total to 213.6 million, well above its own forecast. It expects to add another 8.5 million net new subscribers in the December quarter, in line with its fourth-quarter performance over the past three years.\nNetflix says it will no longer need to borrow to finance new content and expects to be free-cash-flow positive in 2022 and beyond. It has begun buying back stock—$100 million in the latest quarter—while making acquisitions in its core business and in its emerging interest, mobile gaming.\nWhile the company continues to show rapid subscriber growth in Europe and Asia, growth in the U.S. market has slowed to a trickle. But Co-CEO Reed Hastings still sees a huge opportunity to expand the company’s domestic position. In its quarterly letter to shareholders this past week, Netflix noted that streaming video still accounts for just 28% of overall U.S. TV viewing hours—with Netflix at just 6% of the total—even as consumers continue to cut the cord.\nIt is tempting to tie the strong third quarter to the launch of the Korean-language series Squid Game, which, as Netflix noted, was viewed by 142 million households in the first four weeks since launch, making it the company’s most successful new series ever. But the real power of the Netflix model is its gigantic content budget, which is producing an array of popular shows—Stranger Things, Ozark, Bridgerton, You, The Queen’s Gambit, Lupin, and Tiger King, to name a few.\n“The company appears to operate in a virtuous cycle,” Pivotal Research analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak wrote. As the subscriber base grows—and average revenue per user rises as Netflix gradually boosts monthly fees—the more it can spend on original content. That expands the potential target market and reduces churn, bolsters its ability to boost prices, and improves its position.\nNetflix is adding new elements to its mix, too. The company’s nascent move into videogaming has the potential to shake up gaming in the same way it has driven dramatic change in the TV business. Most mobile games are either sold directly to consumers or supported by advertising and in-game purchases. Netflix intends to tack gaming on to its subscription plan at no extra cost, and without ads or other extra revenue sources.\nIt’s the Netflix model as its purest: find ways to drive more subscribers and keep them around.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862538625,"gmtCreate":1632888654097,"gmtModify":1632888654460,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571887370744856","authorIdStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like and comment","listText":"like and comment","text":"like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862538625","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</li><li>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</li><li>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满 “这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从同事那里得到的问题<i>减少垃圾投资。</i>这是一个很好的问题，因为投资者认为<i>“无风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个定义，准确地定义什么是熔化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>“融化是指资产或资产类别的投资业绩持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至、</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本性改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期的顶峰附近，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所吸引。这种繁荣滋生了 “合理化”，即 “这次不同 ”。那么，你如何知道目前的市场是否繁荣呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种市场活动表明市场已经回到了'热情'阶段。其特点是：'</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>轻松信贷（太容易，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行的热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>高风险股票跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>拉伸估值</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象一些事情往往比解释它更容易。<b>自 1900 年以来，只有两个之前的市场时期符合融化的条件：1920-1929 年和 1995-2000 年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前较 2020 年 3 月低点的进步进行比较。同样，我们看到价格也出现了非常相似的大幅上涨，同时估值也飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来的盈利能够大幅增长，以证明当前的价格是合理的。然而，付出高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值的衡量标准略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的偏差。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化，”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势迅速偏离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场问题<i>“融化”</i>不是熔化本身，而是随之而来的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在融化过程中，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度使用杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，而基本面则让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化是关于<i>心理学。</i><b>从历史上看，无论什么催化剂引发了人们对风险的漠视，价格和估值的相应飙升都很容易见证。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。以前的<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进步相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于当前的扩展只与历史上几个罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>流行的心理总是 “这次不一样”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被放弃，以换取势头和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似 “输不起 ”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，也是不可避免的，“融化 ”以最坏的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场处于<i>“融化，</i>“事件的持续时间不得而知。因此，投资者需要一个策略来参与预先，并减轻最终的损失<i>“融化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如前所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理的一个功能，它们可能会持续更长时间，比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么 “<i>结束”</i>融化是一种意想不到的外部事件，它会将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是退出潮发生的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场发展。但是，当然，困难的部分是当调整不可避免地发生时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我概述了我们采用的流程。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（在市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>抵御市场大幅下跌。（不相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>卖出落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>(如果某种方法在市场融化时不起作用，那么在普遍下跌时很可能也不起作用。最好尽早消除风险）。</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并根据目标权重重新平衡投资组合。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没写，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，变现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间大幅筹集现金。良好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当销售开始时，水平被触发，风险敞口减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</li><li>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</li><li>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满 “这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从同事那里得到的问题<i>减少垃圾投资。</i>这是一个很好的问题，因为投资者认为<i>“无风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个定义，准确地定义什么是熔化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>“融化是指资产或资产类别的投资业绩持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至、</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本性改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期的顶峰附近，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所吸引。这种繁荣滋生了 “合理化”，即 “这次不同 ”。那么，你如何知道目前的市场是否繁荣呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种市场活动表明市场已经回到了'热情'阶段。其特点是：'</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>轻松信贷（太容易，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行的热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>高风险股票跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>拉伸估值</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象一些事情往往比解释它更容易。<b>自 1900 年以来，只有两个之前的市场时期符合融化的条件：1920-1929 年和 1995-2000 年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前较 2020 年 3 月低点的进步进行比较。同样，我们看到价格也出现了非常相似的大幅上涨，同时估值也飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来的盈利能够大幅增长，以证明当前的价格是合理的。然而，付出高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值的衡量标准略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的偏差。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化，”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势迅速偏离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场问题<i>“融化”</i>不是熔化本身，而是随之而来的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在融化过程中，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度使用杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，而基本面则让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化是关于<i>心理学。</i><b>从历史上看，无论什么催化剂引发了人们对风险的漠视，价格和估值的相应飙升都很容易见证。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。以前的<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进步相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于当前的扩展只与历史上几个罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>流行的心理总是 “这次不一样”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被放弃，以换取势头和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似 “输不起 ”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，也是不可避免的，“融化 ”以最坏的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场处于<i>“融化，</i>“事件的持续时间不得而知。因此，投资者需要一个策略来参与预先，并减轻最终的损失<i>“融化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如前所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理的一个功能，它们可能会持续更长时间，比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么 “<i>结束”</i>融化是一种意想不到的外部事件，它会将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是退出潮发生的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场发展。但是，当然，困难的部分是当调整不可避免地发生时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我概述了我们采用的流程。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（在市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>抵御市场大幅下跌。（不相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>卖出落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>(如果某种方法在市场融化时不起作用，那么在普遍下跌时很可能也不起作用。最好尽早消除风险）。</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并根据目标权重重新平衡投资组合。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没写，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，变现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间大幅筹集现金。良好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当销售开始时，水平被触发，风险敞口减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868240074,"gmtCreate":1632661831498,"gmtModify":1632798720028,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571887370744856","authorIdStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"comment","listText":"comment","text":"comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868240074","repostId":"1142057327","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142057327","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632643246,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142057327?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-26 16:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel Starts Construction of Two Arizona Computer Chip Factories<blockquote>英特尔开始在亚利桑那州建设两家计算机芯片工厂</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142057327","media":"The street","summary":"Intel broke ground on two new computer chip factories in Arizona as part of a $20 billion project to","content":"<p>Intel broke ground on two new computer chip factories in Arizona as part of a $20 billion project to help meet the high demand for semiconductors in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔在亚利桑那州破土动工了两家新的计算机芯片工厂，这是一项耗资 200 亿美元的项目的一部分，旨在帮助满足美国对半导体的高需求。</blockquote></p><p> Intel&nbsp;(<b>INTC</b>) -Get Intel Corporation (INTC) Report&nbsp;on Friday broke ground on two new computer chip factories in Arizona as part of a $20 billion project to help&nbsp;alleviate the severe shortage of semiconductors in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔（<b>国际电联</b>) -Get 英特尔公司 (INTC) 周五报道称，英特尔公司 (INTC) 在亚利桑那州的两家新计算机芯片工厂破土动工，这是一项耗资 200 亿美元的项目的一部分，旨在帮助缓解美国半导体严重短缺的问题。</blockquote></p><p> The Santa Clara, Calif.-basedsemiconductor chip manufacturer'sCEO Pat Gelsinger led the project's groundbreaking ceremony at the company's Ocotillo campus in Chandler, Ariz., marking the largest private investment in the state's history.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉的半导体芯片制造商的首席执行官帕特·基辛格在该公司位于亚利桑那州钱德勒的奥科蒂略园区主持了该项目的奠基仪式，这标志着该州历史上最大的私人投资。</blockquote></p><p> Intel expects the factories to be fully operational in 2024 to manufacture the company's most advanced process technologies.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔预计这些工厂将于 2024 年全面投入运营，生产公司最先进的工艺技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Today’s celebration marks an important milestone as we work to boost capacity and meet the incredible demand for semiconductors: the foundational technology for the digitization of everything,\" Gelsinger said in acompany statement. \"We are ushering in a new era of innovation – for Intel, for Arizona and for the world. This $20 billion expansion will bring our total investment in Arizona to more than $50 billion since opening the site over 40 years ago.</p><p><blockquote>“基辛格在公司声明中说：”今天的庆祝活动标志着一个重要的里程碑，因为我们正在努力提高产能，满足对半导体的巨大需求： 半导体是一切数字化的基础技术。“我们正在迎来一个创新的新时代--对英特尔、对亚利桑那州乃至对全世界来说都是如此。自 40 多年前开设工厂以来，我们在亚利桑那州的总投资将超过 500 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"As the only U.S.-based leading-edge chipmaker, we are committed to building on this long-term investment and helping the United States regain semiconductor leadership,” Gelsinger said.</p><p><blockquote>“作为唯一一家总部位于美国的领先芯片制造商，我们致力于在这项长期投资的基础上再接再厉，帮助美国重新获得半导体领域的领导地位，”基辛格说。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Intel on Friday traded 0.18% higher to $54.32 after hours.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔股价周五盘后上涨 0.18%，至 54.32 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gelsinger on Thursday participated in a virtual meeting with tech company executives and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo to address the global semiconductor chip shortage, which has interfered with production in the high-tech, electronics and automotive industries.</p><p><blockquote>基辛格周四参加了与科技公司高管和商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多的虚拟会议，以解决全球半导体芯片短缺问题，这干扰了高科技、电子和汽车行业的生产。</blockquote></p><p> The two new factories, to be named Fab 52 and Fab 62, will house a total of six semiconductor fabs. The project will create over 3,000 high-tech, high-wage Intel jobs, 3,000 construction jobs and support an estimated 15,000 additional indirect jobs in the local community.</p><p><blockquote>这两家新工厂将被命名为 Fab 52 和 Fab 62，总共将容纳六家半导体晶圆厂。该项目将创造3000多个高科技、高工资的英特尔工作岗位、3000个建筑工作岗位，并在当地社区支持约15000个额外的间接工作岗位。</blockquote></p><p> Intel rival Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.plans to buildits second U.S. chip factory also in Arizona and targets production to begin in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔竞争对手台积电公司计划在亚利桑那州建造第二家美国芯片工厂，并计划于 2024 年开始生产。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel Starts Construction of Two Arizona Computer Chip Factories<blockquote>英特尔开始在亚利桑那州建设两家计算机芯片工厂</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel Starts Construction of Two Arizona Computer Chip Factories<blockquote>英特尔开始在亚利桑那州建设两家计算机芯片工厂</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-26 16:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Intel broke ground on two new computer chip factories in Arizona as part of a $20 billion project to help meet the high demand for semiconductors in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔在亚利桑那州破土动工了两家新的计算机芯片工厂，这是一项耗资 200 亿美元的项目的一部分，旨在帮助满足美国对半导体的高需求。</blockquote></p><p> Intel&nbsp;(<b>INTC</b>) -Get Intel Corporation (INTC) Report&nbsp;on Friday broke ground on two new computer chip factories in Arizona as part of a $20 billion project to help&nbsp;alleviate the severe shortage of semiconductors in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔（<b>国际电联</b>) -Get 英特尔公司 (INTC) 周五报道称，英特尔公司 (INTC) 在亚利桑那州的两家新计算机芯片工厂破土动工，这是一项耗资 200 亿美元的项目的一部分，旨在帮助缓解美国半导体严重短缺的问题。</blockquote></p><p> The Santa Clara, Calif.-basedsemiconductor chip manufacturer'sCEO Pat Gelsinger led the project's groundbreaking ceremony at the company's Ocotillo campus in Chandler, Ariz., marking the largest private investment in the state's history.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉的半导体芯片制造商的首席执行官帕特·基辛格在该公司位于亚利桑那州钱德勒的奥科蒂略园区主持了该项目的奠基仪式，这标志着该州历史上最大的私人投资。</blockquote></p><p> Intel expects the factories to be fully operational in 2024 to manufacture the company's most advanced process technologies.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔预计这些工厂将于 2024 年全面投入运营，生产公司最先进的工艺技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Today’s celebration marks an important milestone as we work to boost capacity and meet the incredible demand for semiconductors: the foundational technology for the digitization of everything,\" Gelsinger said in acompany statement. \"We are ushering in a new era of innovation – for Intel, for Arizona and for the world. This $20 billion expansion will bring our total investment in Arizona to more than $50 billion since opening the site over 40 years ago.</p><p><blockquote>“基辛格在公司声明中说：”今天的庆祝活动标志着一个重要的里程碑，因为我们正在努力提高产能，满足对半导体的巨大需求： 半导体是一切数字化的基础技术。“我们正在迎来一个创新的新时代--对英特尔、对亚利桑那州乃至对全世界来说都是如此。自 40 多年前开设工厂以来，我们在亚利桑那州的总投资将超过 500 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"As the only U.S.-based leading-edge chipmaker, we are committed to building on this long-term investment and helping the United States regain semiconductor leadership,” Gelsinger said.</p><p><blockquote>“作为唯一一家总部位于美国的领先芯片制造商，我们致力于在这项长期投资的基础上再接再厉，帮助美国重新获得半导体领域的领导地位，”基辛格说。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Intel on Friday traded 0.18% higher to $54.32 after hours.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔股价周五盘后上涨 0.18%，至 54.32 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gelsinger on Thursday participated in a virtual meeting with tech company executives and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo to address the global semiconductor chip shortage, which has interfered with production in the high-tech, electronics and automotive industries.</p><p><blockquote>基辛格周四参加了与科技公司高管和商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多的虚拟会议，以解决全球半导体芯片短缺问题，这干扰了高科技、电子和汽车行业的生产。</blockquote></p><p> The two new factories, to be named Fab 52 and Fab 62, will house a total of six semiconductor fabs. The project will create over 3,000 high-tech, high-wage Intel jobs, 3,000 construction jobs and support an estimated 15,000 additional indirect jobs in the local community.</p><p><blockquote>这两家新工厂将被命名为 Fab 52 和 Fab 62，总共将容纳六家半导体晶圆厂。该项目将创造3000多个高科技、高工资的英特尔工作岗位、3000个建筑工作岗位，并在当地社区支持约15000个额外的间接工作岗位。</blockquote></p><p> Intel rival Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.plans to buildits second U.S. chip factory also in Arizona and targets production to begin in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔竞争对手台积电公司计划在亚利桑那州建造第二家美国芯片工厂，并计划于 2024 年开始生产。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/intel-starts-construction-of-two-arizona-computer-chip-factories\">The street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/intel-starts-construction-of-two-arizona-computer-chip-factories","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142057327","content_text":"Intel broke ground on two new computer chip factories in Arizona as part of a $20 billion project to help meet the high demand for semiconductors in the U.S.\nIntel (INTC) -Get Intel Corporation (INTC) Report on Friday broke ground on two new computer chip factories in Arizona as part of a $20 billion project to help alleviate the severe shortage of semiconductors in the U.S.\nThe Santa Clara, Calif.-basedsemiconductor chip manufacturer'sCEO Pat Gelsinger led the project's groundbreaking ceremony at the company's Ocotillo campus in Chandler, Ariz., marking the largest private investment in the state's history.\nIntel expects the factories to be fully operational in 2024 to manufacture the company's most advanced process technologies.\n“Today’s celebration marks an important milestone as we work to boost capacity and meet the incredible demand for semiconductors: the foundational technology for the digitization of everything,\" Gelsinger said in acompany statement. \"We are ushering in a new era of innovation – for Intel, for Arizona and for the world. This $20 billion expansion will bring our total investment in Arizona to more than $50 billion since opening the site over 40 years ago.\n\"As the only U.S.-based leading-edge chipmaker, we are committed to building on this long-term investment and helping the United States regain semiconductor leadership,” Gelsinger said.\nShares of Intel on Friday traded 0.18% higher to $54.32 after hours.\nGelsinger on Thursday participated in a virtual meeting with tech company executives and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo to address the global semiconductor chip shortage, which has interfered with production in the high-tech, electronics and automotive industries.\nThe two new factories, to be named Fab 52 and Fab 62, will house a total of six semiconductor fabs. The project will create over 3,000 high-tech, high-wage Intel jobs, 3,000 construction jobs and support an estimated 15,000 additional indirect jobs in the local community.\nIntel rival Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.plans to buildits second U.S. chip factory also in Arizona and targets production to begin in 2024.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886367672,"gmtCreate":1631561824796,"gmtModify":1631889874327,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571887370744856","authorIdStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"comment","listText":"comment","text":"comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886367672","repostId":"2167630550","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818449935,"gmtCreate":1630435617327,"gmtModify":1631889874334,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571887370744856","authorIdStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time to add on","listText":"Time to add on","text":"Time to add on","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818449935","repostId":"1173998132","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813313249,"gmtCreate":1630130633981,"gmtModify":1704956404887,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571887370744856","authorIdStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"why amazon revenue didnt beat the estimated value","listText":"why amazon revenue didnt beat the estimated value","text":"why amazon revenue didnt beat the estimated value","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813313249","repostId":"1123342356","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813313375,"gmtCreate":1630130584597,"gmtModify":1704956404189,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571887370744856","authorIdStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"apple for life","listText":"apple for life","text":"apple for life","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813313375","repostId":"1162964424","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162964424","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630111098,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1162964424?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-28 08:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: How It Could Be A Great Inflation Play<blockquote>苹果股票：它如何成为一场伟大的通胀游戏</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162964424","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.IPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year  should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has reported that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.Bad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock investors. If the price increase is con","content":"<p>Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.</p><p><blockquote>由于某些零部件价格上涨，苹果的 iPhone 13 可能会让消费者花费更多。这对用户来说是个坏消息，但对苹果股票投资者来说可能是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> IPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year (or those looking to switch to the iOS-based product) should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.</p><p><blockquote>考虑今年升级设备的IPhone用户（或那些希望转向基于iOS的产品的用户）应该期待他们的口袋更深。据 DigiTimes 报道，由于零部件通胀，苹果的 iPhone 13 可能会在下个月以更高的价格上市。</blockquote></p><p> Bad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock&nbsp;investors. If the price increase is confirmed, it provides evidence that AAPL might be a great inflation play during these times of worry over rising producer and consumer prices.</p><p><blockquote>对消费者来说是坏消息，对苹果股票投资者来说可能是好消息。如果价格上涨得到证实，这将提供证据表明，在人们担心生产者和消费者价格上涨的时期，AAPL 可能是一个很好的通胀工具。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6f4ac9ebc1b90072340731dc5c1e613\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone 12 Pro.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果的iPhone 12 Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生什么事了？</b></blockquote></p><p> The iPhone is already considered a pricey tech gadget that can cost as much as $1,400 for the fully loaded, higher-end 12 Pro Max model in the US (see figure below). Due to this year’s components shortage, chip maker TSMC may raise its part prices to Apple by 3% to 5%, which could lead to a similar increase in the price of the yet-to-be-announced iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone已经被认为是一款昂贵的科技产品，在美国，满载的高端12 Pro Max型号的价格可能高达1400美元（见下图）。由于今年的零部件短缺，芯片制造商台积电可能会将其对苹果的零部件价格提高 3% 至 5%，这可能会导致尚未发布的 iPhone 13 的价格也出现类似的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> It is unlikely that one of the largest and most successful consumer product companies in the world would try to raise prices without confidence that doing so does not impact demand for the new iPhone substantially. Apple can probably afford to hike prices because the company understands the value and the appeal of its luxury brand.</p><p><blockquote>世界上最大、最成功的消费品公司之一不太可能在不确定这样做不会对新iPhone的需求产生实质性影响的情况下试图提高价格。苹果可能有能力提高价格，因为该公司了解其奢侈品牌的价值和吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0140b9b68bb9eb5dd7e88aaff384785d\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone 12 Pro on Apple's store.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果商店上的iPhone 12 Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A quote from Jim Cramer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>吉姆·克莱默的一句话</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most concerning headwinds to stocks in the foreseeable future is the possibility of inflation eroding corporate margins and leading to higher interest rates in 2021-2022. But should producer and consumer prices spike, not all stocks will be impacted equally.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，股市面临的最令人担忧的阻力之一是通货膨胀可能侵蚀企业利润率并导致 2021-2022 年利率上升。但如果生产者和消费者价格飙升，并非所有股票都会受到同等影响。</blockquote></p><p> Generally speaking, companies with strong pricing power that are able to pass on the higher production costs to consumers will likely outperform. This is a point that&nbsp;Mad Money’s Jim Cramer has made recently. Here is his quote:</p><p><blockquote>一般来说，拥有强大定价权、能够将较高生产成本转嫁给消费者的公司可能会跑赢大盘。这是 Mad Money 的吉姆-克莱默（Jim Cramer）最近提出的观点。以下是他的名言：</blockquote></p><p>   “When you try to think of what’s working in this market... I want you to ask yourself, would you be insensitive to a price increase if the company put one through? [What are] the companies that can raise prices without infuriating you? Go buy their stocks.”  <b>The impact to the P&amp;L</b></p><p><blockquote>“当你试图思考这个市场上什么在起作用时......我想让你问问自己，如果公司实施涨价，你会对涨价麻木不仁吗？[有哪些]公司可以在不激怒你的情况下提高价格？去买他们的股票吧。”<b>对损益的影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Are higher prices a good or a bad thing for a company’s financial performance? The answer is nuanced and depends on a few factors.</p><p><blockquote>价格上涨对公司的财务业绩是好事还是坏事？答案是微妙的，取决于几个因素。</blockquote></p><p> Holding all else constant, higher prices also mean higher revenues (think of the formula for sales: price times quantity). If the increase in price is decoupled from an increase in product or operating costs, then the hike also helps to boost margins – thus profits as well.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件不变的情况下，更高的价格也意味着更高的收入（想想销售公式：价格乘以数量）。如果价格上涨与产品或运营成本的增加脱钩，那么价格上涨也有助于提高利润率，从而提高利润。</blockquote></p><p> However, “holding all else constant” is not how the world really works. A change in price tends to have an impact on a few key variables, most important of which is demand. If higher prices do not impact units sold by much or at all, this is great news for revenues and, most likely, earnings.</p><p><blockquote>然而，“保持其他一切不变”并不是世界的真正运作方式。价格的变化往往会对几个关键变量产生影响，其中最重要的是需求。如果价格上涨对销量没有太大影响或根本没有影响，这对收入和最有可能的盈利来说都是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> The other piece to consider is whether the price hike fully or only partially offsets higher costs. Assuming the latter, revenues can still benefit without a corresponding positive effect on margins and profits. The complexity presented by the many moving parts makes it hard to determine with certainty how a more expensive iPhone may impact Apple’s financial statements in the future.</p><p><blockquote>另一件要考虑的事情是价格上涨是完全还是仅部分抵消了更高的成本。假设后者，收入仍然可以受益，而不会对利润率和利润产生相应的积极影响。由于移动部件众多，因此很难确定价格更高的 iPhone 未来会对苹果的财务报表产生怎样的影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: How It Could Be A Great Inflation Play<blockquote>苹果股票：它如何成为一场伟大的通胀游戏</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: How It Could Be A Great Inflation Play<blockquote>苹果股票：它如何成为一场伟大的通胀游戏</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-28 08:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.</p><p><blockquote>由于某些零部件价格上涨，苹果的 iPhone 13 可能会让消费者花费更多。这对用户来说是个坏消息，但对苹果股票投资者来说可能是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> IPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year (or those looking to switch to the iOS-based product) should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.</p><p><blockquote>考虑今年升级设备的IPhone用户（或那些希望转向基于iOS的产品的用户）应该期待他们的口袋更深。据 DigiTimes 报道，由于零部件通胀，苹果的 iPhone 13 可能会在下个月以更高的价格上市。</blockquote></p><p> Bad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock&nbsp;investors. If the price increase is confirmed, it provides evidence that AAPL might be a great inflation play during these times of worry over rising producer and consumer prices.</p><p><blockquote>对消费者来说是坏消息，对苹果股票投资者来说可能是好消息。如果价格上涨得到证实，这将提供证据表明，在人们担心生产者和消费者价格上涨的时期，AAPL 可能是一个很好的通胀工具。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6f4ac9ebc1b90072340731dc5c1e613\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone 12 Pro.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果的iPhone 12 Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生什么事了？</b></blockquote></p><p> The iPhone is already considered a pricey tech gadget that can cost as much as $1,400 for the fully loaded, higher-end 12 Pro Max model in the US (see figure below). Due to this year’s components shortage, chip maker TSMC may raise its part prices to Apple by 3% to 5%, which could lead to a similar increase in the price of the yet-to-be-announced iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone已经被认为是一款昂贵的科技产品，在美国，满载的高端12 Pro Max型号的价格可能高达1400美元（见下图）。由于今年的零部件短缺，芯片制造商台积电可能会将其对苹果的零部件价格提高 3% 至 5%，这可能会导致尚未发布的 iPhone 13 的价格也出现类似的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> It is unlikely that one of the largest and most successful consumer product companies in the world would try to raise prices without confidence that doing so does not impact demand for the new iPhone substantially. Apple can probably afford to hike prices because the company understands the value and the appeal of its luxury brand.</p><p><blockquote>世界上最大、最成功的消费品公司之一不太可能在不确定这样做不会对新iPhone的需求产生实质性影响的情况下试图提高价格。苹果可能有能力提高价格，因为该公司了解其奢侈品牌的价值和吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0140b9b68bb9eb5dd7e88aaff384785d\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone 12 Pro on Apple's store.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果商店上的iPhone 12 Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A quote from Jim Cramer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>吉姆·克莱默的一句话</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most concerning headwinds to stocks in the foreseeable future is the possibility of inflation eroding corporate margins and leading to higher interest rates in 2021-2022. But should producer and consumer prices spike, not all stocks will be impacted equally.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，股市面临的最令人担忧的阻力之一是通货膨胀可能侵蚀企业利润率并导致 2021-2022 年利率上升。但如果生产者和消费者价格飙升，并非所有股票都会受到同等影响。</blockquote></p><p> Generally speaking, companies with strong pricing power that are able to pass on the higher production costs to consumers will likely outperform. This is a point that&nbsp;Mad Money’s Jim Cramer has made recently. Here is his quote:</p><p><blockquote>一般来说，拥有强大定价权、能够将较高生产成本转嫁给消费者的公司可能会跑赢大盘。这是 Mad Money 的吉姆-克莱默（Jim Cramer）最近提出的观点。以下是他的名言：</blockquote></p><p>   “When you try to think of what’s working in this market... I want you to ask yourself, would you be insensitive to a price increase if the company put one through? [What are] the companies that can raise prices without infuriating you? Go buy their stocks.”  <b>The impact to the P&amp;L</b></p><p><blockquote>“当你试图思考这个市场上什么在起作用时......我想让你问问自己，如果公司实施涨价，你会对涨价麻木不仁吗？[有哪些]公司可以在不激怒你的情况下提高价格？去买他们的股票吧。”<b>对损益的影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Are higher prices a good or a bad thing for a company’s financial performance? The answer is nuanced and depends on a few factors.</p><p><blockquote>价格上涨对公司的财务业绩是好事还是坏事？答案是微妙的，取决于几个因素。</blockquote></p><p> Holding all else constant, higher prices also mean higher revenues (think of the formula for sales: price times quantity). If the increase in price is decoupled from an increase in product or operating costs, then the hike also helps to boost margins – thus profits as well.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件不变的情况下，更高的价格也意味着更高的收入（想想销售公式：价格乘以数量）。如果价格上涨与产品或运营成本的增加脱钩，那么价格上涨也有助于提高利润率，从而提高利润。</blockquote></p><p> However, “holding all else constant” is not how the world really works. A change in price tends to have an impact on a few key variables, most important of which is demand. If higher prices do not impact units sold by much or at all, this is great news for revenues and, most likely, earnings.</p><p><blockquote>然而，“保持其他一切不变”并不是世界的真正运作方式。价格的变化往往会对几个关键变量产生影响，其中最重要的是需求。如果价格上涨对销量没有太大影响或根本没有影响，这对收入和最有可能的盈利来说都是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> The other piece to consider is whether the price hike fully or only partially offsets higher costs. Assuming the latter, revenues can still benefit without a corresponding positive effect on margins and profits. The complexity presented by the many moving parts makes it hard to determine with certainty how a more expensive iPhone may impact Apple’s financial statements in the future.</p><p><blockquote>另一件要考虑的事情是价格上涨是完全还是仅部分抵消了更高的成本。假设后者，收入仍然可以受益，而不会对利润率和利润产生相应的积极影响。由于移动部件众多，因此很难确定价格更高的 iPhone 未来会对苹果的财务报表产生怎样的影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/apple-stock-how-it-could-be-a-great-inflation-play\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/apple-stock-how-it-could-be-a-great-inflation-play","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162964424","content_text":"Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.\nIPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year (or those looking to switch to the iOS-based product) should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has reported that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.\nBad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock investors. If the price increase is confirmed, it provides evidence that AAPL might be a great inflation play during these times of worry over rising producer and consumer prices.\nFigure 1: Apple's iPhone 12 Pro.\nWhat happened?\nThe iPhone is already considered a pricey tech gadget that can cost as much as $1,400 for the fully loaded, higher-end 12 Pro Max model in the US (see figure below). Due to this year’s components shortage, chip maker TSMC may raise its part prices to Apple by 3% to 5%, which could lead to a similar increase in the price of the yet-to-be-announced iPhone 13.\nIt is unlikely that one of the largest and most successful consumer product companies in the world would try to raise prices without confidence that doing so does not impact demand for the new iPhone substantially. Apple can probably afford to hike prices because the company understands the value and the appeal of its luxury brand.\nFigure 2: iPhone 12 Pro on Apple's store.\nA quote from Jim Cramer\nOne of the most concerning headwinds to stocks in the foreseeable future is the possibility of inflation eroding corporate margins and leading to higher interest rates in 2021-2022. But should producer and consumer prices spike, not all stocks will be impacted equally.\nGenerally speaking, companies with strong pricing power that are able to pass on the higher production costs to consumers will likely outperform. This is a point that Mad Money’s Jim Cramer has made recently. Here is his quote:\n\n “When you try to think of what’s working in this market... I want you to ask yourself, would you be insensitive to a price increase if the company put one through? [What are] the companies that can raise prices without infuriating you? Go buy their stocks.”\n\nThe impact to the P&L\nAre higher prices a good or a bad thing for a company’s financial performance? The answer is nuanced and depends on a few factors.\nHolding all else constant, higher prices also mean higher revenues (think of the formula for sales: price times quantity). If the increase in price is decoupled from an increase in product or operating costs, then the hike also helps to boost margins – thus profits as well.\nHowever, “holding all else constant” is not how the world really works. A change in price tends to have an impact on a few key variables, most important of which is demand. If higher prices do not impact units sold by much or at all, this is great news for revenues and, most likely, earnings.\nThe other piece to consider is whether the price hike fully or only partially offsets higher costs. Assuming the latter, revenues can still benefit without a corresponding positive effect on margins and profits. The complexity presented by the many moving parts makes it hard to determine with certainty how a more expensive iPhone may impact Apple’s financial statements in the future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834336427,"gmtCreate":1629771100269,"gmtModify":1631889874343,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571887370744856","authorIdStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834336427","repostId":"2161777891","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832646094,"gmtCreate":1629628037118,"gmtModify":1631889874346,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571887370744856","authorIdStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"lets go alibaba","listText":"lets go alibaba","text":"lets go alibaba","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832646094","repostId":"1133515985","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832098795,"gmtCreate":1629535250017,"gmtModify":1631889874346,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571887370744856","authorIdStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like comment","listText":"like comment","text":"like comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832098795","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNPS":"新思科技","AAPL":"苹果","TSM":"台积电","QCOM":"高通","NVDA":"英伟达","CDNS":"铿腾电子","GOOG":"谷歌","ASML":"阿斯麦","GOOGL":"谷歌A","SSNLF":"三星电子","AMZN":"亚马逊","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","ON":"安森美半导体"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"ON":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833797283,"gmtCreate":1629261389742,"gmtModify":1631889874347,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571887370744856","authorIdStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good chance to&nbsp;restock nvidia","listText":"good chance to&nbsp;restock nvidia","text":"good chance to restock nvidia","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833797283","repostId":"2160207426","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839484490,"gmtCreate":1629174020610,"gmtModify":1631889874350,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571887370744856","authorIdStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nio let’s go","listText":"Nio let’s go","text":"Nio let’s go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839484490","repostId":"1144644937","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839834399,"gmtCreate":1629137153911,"gmtModify":1631889874356,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571887370744856","authorIdStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment thanks","listText":"Like and comment thanks","text":"Like and comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839834399","repostId":"2159193222","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830863220,"gmtCreate":1629049307060,"gmtModify":1631892482940,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571887370744856","authorIdStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nvdia","listText":"nvdia","text":"nvdia","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830863220","repostId":"1138705612","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138705612","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628995730,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138705612?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 10:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD, Intel, And Nvidia: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?<blockquote>AMD、英特尔和英伟达：哪只芯片股票最好？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138705612","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"AMD's recent CPU and GPU offerings have been more competitive with Intel and NVIDIA's products.AMD’s EPYC server chips have proved to be comparable or even superior to certain Intel chips and have led to AMD gaining server CPU market share.Even so, Intel is the leader in the processor market and holds long-term advantages over AMD in R&D, marketing, and pricing.Nvidia is ahead of AMD in GPU technology and is leveraging its GPUs into adjacent end markets such as artificial intelligence.This left ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's recent CPU and GPU offerings have been more competitive with Intel and NVIDIA's products.</li>  <li>AMD’s EPYC server chips have proved to be comparable or even superior to certain Intel chips and have led to AMD gaining server CPU market share.</li>  <li>Even so, Intel is the leader in the processor market and holds long-term advantages over AMD in R&amp;D, marketing, and pricing.</li>  <li>Nvidia is ahead of AMD in GPU technology and is leveraging its GPUs into adjacent end markets such as artificial intelligence.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8f0aee0f3d10db76a1ee18fe604b40\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Andy/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD 最近的 CPU 和 GPU 产品与英特尔和英伟达的产品相比更具竞争力。</li><li>事实证明，AMD 的 EPYC 服务器芯片可与某些英特尔芯片媲美甚至更胜一筹，并帮助 AMD 获得了服务器 CPU 市场份额。</li><li>即便如此，英特尔仍然是处理器市场的领导者，在研发、营销和定价方面长期保持着相对于AMD的优势。</li><li>英伟达在 GPU 技术方面领先于 AMD，并正在利用其 GPU 进入人工智能等邻近终端市场。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安迪/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Intel (INTC) was once the microchip industry equivalent of the Colossus of Rhodes, a monument to the power of Moore’s law. However, the firm stumbled with its 10-nanometer process, and recently announced its 7-nm process will be delayed until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔（INTC）曾经是微芯片行业的罗兹巨像，是摩尔定律力量的丰碑。然而，该公司在 10 纳米工艺方面遇到了困难，最近宣布其 7 纳米工艺将推迟到 2023 年。</blockquote></p><p> This left the door open to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), and that firm has taken full advantage of the opportunity. AMD has taken a large share of the CPU market and is making inroads into the once nearly impenetrable server market.</p><p><blockquote>这为 Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) 敞开了大门，该公司充分利用了这个机会。AMD 已经占据了 CPU 市场的很大份额，并正在进军曾经几乎难以渗透的服务器市场。</blockquote></p><p> AMD now has seven consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth under its belt, and it appears the firm is gaining momentum: management now guides for 60% revenue growth for the full year, up from the 50% forecast provided in the previous quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 现已连续七个季度实现两位数收入增长，而且该公司似乎正在获得动力：管理层目前预计全年收入增长 60%，高于上一季度预测的 50%。</blockquote></p><p> However, AMD also competes with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), and the latter company’s GPU technology is stealing market share. NVDA has also been successful in gaining access to adjacent markets with its GPUs, especially AI and automotive markets.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD 还与英伟达公司（NVDA）竞争，后者的 GPU 技术正在抢走市场份额。NVDA 还成功凭借其 GPU 进入邻近市场，尤其是人工智能和汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ins And Outs of Intel</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔的来龙去脉</b></blockquote></p><p> An understanding of Intel also provides insights into AMD. This is due to the overlap between the two companies, particularly in regards to x86 chips. Intel developed the x86 chip in 1978. To satisfy demands by IBM that Intel would not be the sole supplier of the chips, INTC provided x86 instruction set architecture licensing to AMD.</p><p><blockquote>了解英特尔还可以深入了解 AMD。这是由于两家公司之间的重叠，特别是在x86芯片方面。英特尔在1978年开发了x86芯片。为了满足IBM的要求，即英特尔不会成为芯片的唯一供应商，INTC向AMD提供了x86指令集架构许可。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, Intel and AMD have a duopoly position in the PC and server markets, as nearly all computer software is written for x86 architecture. The result is that both have a wide moat related to the x86 ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>因此，英特尔和AMD在PC和服务器市场占据双头垄断地位，因为几乎所有的计算机软件都是为x86架构编写的。结果是，两者都有一条与x86生态系统相关的宽阔护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Gaming consoles in particular are based on x86 architecture due to those platforms generally providing more powerful CPUs and GPUs with multiple compute cores. Like PCs, consoles operate with games that use x86 based software. Once again, this stifles potential competition from ARM-based devices.</p><p><blockquote>游戏机尤其基于x86架构，因为这些平台通常提供具有多个计算核心的更强大的CPU和GPU。像个人电脑一样，游戏机运行使用基于x86软件的游戏。这再次扼杀了基于ARM的设备的潜在竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Until fairly recently, AMD was a distant second to INTC as a supplier of x86 chips. However, AMD teamed with Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM)to use that manufacturer’s 7nm process to surpass INTC in process technology. Combined with AMD’s developing new innovative chip designs, this one-two punch resulted in INTC losing significant market share.</p><p><blockquote>直到最近，作为x86芯片的供应商，AMD还远远落后于INTC。然而，AMD 与台积电（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TSM）合作，利用该制造商的 7 纳米工艺在工艺技术上超越了 INTC。再加上 AMD 开发新的创新芯片设计，这种一举两得的打击导致 INTC 失去了大量市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> At the end of Q1, AMD held 19.30% of the x86 desktop&nbsp;market, a 70 basis point gain year-over-year. In Q2 AMD corralled 8% of the server market, up from a 5%&nbsp;market&nbsp;share in Q4 of 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Q1末，AMD占据x86台式机市场19.30%的份额，同比增长70个基点。第二季度，AMD占据了服务器市场8%的份额，高于2019年第四季度5%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these setbacks, it seems premature to view Intel as a moribund business. INTC is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world. The firm dominates the server market, and still holds 60% of the global x86 CPU&nbsp;market.</p><p><blockquote>尽管遭遇了这些挫折，但将英特尔视为一家垂死的企业似乎还为时过早。INTC是世界上最大的半导体公司之一。该公司主导着服务器市场，仍然占据全球x86 CPU市场60%的份额。</blockquote></p><p> The company has an enormous R&amp;D budget, and it is expanding into new markets, primarily Artificial Intelligence, Field-Programmable Gate Array chips, and automotive offerings, through its acquisitions of Habana Labs, Altera, Movidius, and Mobileye.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有巨额研发预算，并通过收购 Habana Labs、Altera、Movidius 和 Mobileye，正在扩展到新市场，主要是人工智能、现场可编程门阵列芯片和汽车产品。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should not be swayed by the claim that Intel’s new 10nm chips are inferior to 7nm solely on the basis that 7 is superior to 10. While once used to denote the technology level of a chip design, it has been misused to the point of being useless.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不应仅仅因为 7 优于 10 就声称英特尔的新 10 纳米芯片不如 7 纳米。虽然它曾经被用来表示芯片设计的技术水平，但它已经被滥用到毫无用处的地步。</blockquote></p><p> However, there are a number of concerns that must be acknowledged. Intel lags competitors in the smartphone market. As consumers shift to mobile devices, this could result in a sustained headwind as smartphones take the place of PCs. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that INTC’s server processor business has seen growth associated with the surge in mobile devices and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，必须承认一些关切。英特尔在智能手机市场落后于竞争对手。随着消费者转向移动设备，随着智能手机取代个人电脑，这可能会导致持续的逆风。另一方面，应该承认的是，随着移动设备和云计算的激增，INTC 的服务器处理器业务也取得了增长。</blockquote></p><p> Intel also faces increased competition from AMD in the data center space, as well as customers developing their own ARM-based chips for CPUs.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔在数据中心领域还面临着来自 AMD 的日益激烈的竞争，以及客户为 CPU 开发自己的基于 ARM 的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An Overview of AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD概述</b></blockquote></p><p> In years past, INTC held the lion’s share of the x86 market. This was due in part to Intel’s leading-edge manufacturing combined with AMD’s wafer supply agreements with less than stellar GlobalFoundries.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几年里，INTC 占据了 x86 市场的最大份额。这在一定程度上要归功于英特尔领先的制造技术，以及 AMD 与不太出色的 GlobalFoundries 签订的晶圆供应协议。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> However, a seismic shift occurred due to three factors: driven by innovative designs, AMD brought competitive products to market, AMD shifted to TSMC for production, and Intel faced repeated manufacturing delays. The two charts below document the progress the company has made.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于三个因素发生了翻天覆地的变化：在创新设计的推动下，AMD将有竞争力的产品推向市场，AMD转向台积电进行生产，英特尔面临反复的制造延迟。下面的两个图表记录了公司取得的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/903df41d5400c9807ff487a75a7e5450\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/331cd14b666f520a62d0746d5fadfa5b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Like Intel, AMD’s primary products are CPUs and GPUs. AMD’s chips are designed for PCs, game consoles, servers, and blockchain applications. And like INTC, AMD’s offerings are largely protected from competition due to the preponderance of software for PCs and servers being designed for x86 architecture.</p><p><blockquote>与英特尔一样，AMD 的主要产品也是 CPU 和 GPU。AMD 的芯片专为 PC、游戏机、服务器和区块链应用而设计。与 INTC 一样，AMD 的产品在很大程度上免受竞争影响，因为 PC 和服务器软件大多是为 x86 架构设计的。</blockquote></p><p> AMD’s strong growth has largely come at the expense of Intel as AMD has steadily chipped away at the former company’s CPU market share.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 的强劲增长在很大程度上是以牺牲英特尔为代价的，因为 AMD 一直在稳步蚕食英特尔的 CPU 市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f8fbcab5da8a24d01d2b6408bd5686\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s focus on CPU and GPU semi-custom processor applications has resulted in their use in Microsoft Xbox and Sony PlayStation game consoles.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 专注于 CPU 和 GPU 半定制处理器应用，这使得它们在微软 Xbox 和索尼 PlayStation 游戏机中得到应用。</blockquote></p><p> In regards to PC integrated GPUs, AMD is roughly in parity with NVIDIA while INTC dominates with roughly 68% of the market.</p><p><blockquote>在 PC 集成 GPU 方面，AMD 与 NVIDIA 大致持平，而 INTC 则以约 68% 的市场份额占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67a0fe74d986cf882623a8f39587d0d8\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:tom'sHARDWARE</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：汤姆硬件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, NVIDIA dominates the discrete GPU space with an 80% plus market share with AMD sweeping up what is left. NVIDIA’s discrete GPUs are arguably superior to AMD’s (more on that later); therefore, investors should not look for growth here.</p><p><blockquote>然而，英伟达以80%以上的市场份额主导着独立GPU领域，AMD横扫了剩下的市场。英伟达的独立 GPU 可以说优于 AMD（稍后会详细介绍）；因此，投资者不应在这里寻求增长。</blockquote></p><p> Although AMD’s EPYC server CPU products were competitive with that of rivals, initially the company relied on aggressive pricing to promote its first generation of EPYC offerings. However, the EPYC line has gained wider acceptance, and with the Milan processors, the company is gaining market share. As server CPUs provide a better profit margin than the company’s other products, expansion into that space should aid in driving revenue.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMD 的 EPYC 服务器 CPU 产品与竞争对手相比具有竞争力，但该公司最初依靠激进的定价来推广其第一代 EPYC 产品。然而，EPYC系列已经获得了更广泛的认可，随着米兰处理器的推出，该公司正在获得市场份额。由于服务器 CPU 的利润率高于公司的其他产品，因此向该领域的扩张将有助于推动收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Late last year,AMD entered intoa deal&nbsp;to acquire&nbsp;Xilinx (XLNX), a leader in field programmable gate array (FPGA) chips. FPGAs can be used for a wide variety of applications. Because shifting to a competing FPGA provider requires retraining of engineers in software and design tools, customers are loath to make a switch to a competing vendor. Consequently, if the Xilinx deal goes through, AMD will have acquired a wide moat business. Management guides for operational efficiencies of approximately $300 million within 18 months of closing the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>去年年底，AMD 达成收购现场可编程门阵列 (FPGA) 芯片领导者赛灵思 (XLNX) 的交易。FPGA可用于各种各样的应用。由于转向竞争的 FPGA 供应商需要对工程师进行软件和设计工具方面的再培训，因此客户不愿意转向竞争供应商。因此，如果赛灵思交易成功，AMD 将获得广泛的护城河业务。交易完成后 18 个月内运营效率管理指南约为 3 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The Xilinx acquisition should bolster AMD’s data center and artificial intelligence businesses.</p><p><blockquote>收购赛灵思将有助于增强 AMD 的数据中心和人工智能业务。</blockquote></p><p> AMD agreed to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion in an all-stock transaction.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 同意以 350 亿美元的全股票交易收购赛灵思。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Survey of NVIDIA</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达调查</b></blockquote></p><p> NVDA's focus on the graphics processing units market has led the company to a dominant position in the discrete GPU space. The firm is the leader in discrete GPUs for computing platforms, especially gaming consoles. The fact that Intel licensed intellectual property from NVIDIA to integrate GPUs into its PC chipset testifies to the lead the company maintains.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA 对图形处理单元市场的关注使该公司在独立 GPU 领域占据了主导地位。该公司是计算平台（尤其是游戏机）分立 GPU 领域的领导者。英特尔从英伟达获得知识产权，将GPU集成到其PC芯片组中，这一事实证明了该公司保持的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below provides a record of the burgeoning ASP the company has been able to command over the last half decade, beginning with the Pascal architecture in 2016, and progressing through Turing to Ampere.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司在过去五年中能够控制的蓬勃发展的ASP，从2016年的Pascal架构开始，从图灵到安培。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fb1d71f9df02f6c63907fe784b2fd8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:AMD Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 投资者演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The firm’s chips are also found in many high-end PCs, and NVDA has particular strength in the incipient AI and self-driving vehicle markets.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的芯片也应用于许多高端个人电脑中，NVDA 在新兴的人工智能和自动驾驶汽车市场尤其具有实力。</blockquote></p><p> GPUs are being teamed with CPUs to&nbsp;enhance&nbsp;computation workloads. This stratagem is designed to bolster the ability of AI systems to perform computationally intensive tasks. AI related to&nbsp;autonomous&nbsp;vehicles is a developing strength for NVIDIA. Another arena in which the firm is making its mark is in cloud</p><p><blockquote>GPU正在与CPU合作，以增强计算工作负载。这一策略旨在增强人工智能系统执行计算密集型任务的能力。与自动驾驶汽车相关的人工智能是英伟达不断发展的优势。该公司在云计算领域崭露头角的另一个领域</blockquote></p><p> AI and data centers pose the most likely avenue of growth for NVDA. To strengthen its position in both businesses, the company moved last year to acquire ARM Holdings (ARMHF) from parent company Softbank for $40 billion.</p><p><blockquote>人工智能和数据中心是 NVDA 最有可能的增长途径。为了巩固其在这两项业务中的地位，该公司去年以 400 亿美元从母公司软银手中收购了 ARM Holdings (ARMHF)。</blockquote></p><p> ARM is the globe’s largest licensor of chip designs. Its chips are ubiquitous and can be found in mobile phones, smart TVs, and tablet computers. 160 billion chips have been made using ARM designs.</p><p><blockquote>ARM 是全球最大的芯片设计许可商。它的芯片无处不在，可以在手机、智能电视和平板电脑中找到。使用ARM设计已经制造了1600亿个芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Perhaps of equal importance is that 13 million developers work with ARM devices. To place that in context, NVDA has 2 million developers working on its array of devices.</p><p><blockquote>也许同样重要的是，1300万开发者使用ARM设备。从上下文来看，NVDA 有 200 万开发人员在其设备阵列上工作。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately for investors, bothChinaand theU.K.are reportedly balking at approving the deal.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说不幸的是，据报道，中国和theU.K.都不愿批准这笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Head-To-Head Comparisons</b></p><p><blockquote><b>头对头比较</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值指标</b></blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a variety of metrics related to each stock's valuation. All data labeled forward is analysts’ next fiscal year consensus estimate.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了与每只股票估值相关的各种指标。所有标有“远期”字样的数据都是分析师对下一财年的一致估计。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bdeabcd2ea473601fbaaaa03235de77\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, I’m using a graph to provide PEG ratios for the three companies. As there can be fairly wide variations in PEG ratios due to analysts’ inputs, I prefer that readers have access to multiple sources when I find wide variance in the ratio.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我用一张图表来提供这三家公司的 PEG 比率。由于分析师的输入会导致 PEG 比率出现相当大的差异，因此当我发现比率存在较大差异时，我更希望读者能够获得多个来源。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884fc2142d97afcc9e2308e50058dd45\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Note that Seeking Alpha provides a three to five-year PEG, Schwab simply lists its metric as a PEG ratio, while Yahoo! Finance calculates a five-year ratio. This could explain some of the variance in the numbers provided.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，Seeking Alpha提供了三到五年的挂钩，Schwab只是将其指标列为挂钩比率，而Yahoo!财务计算五年比率。这可以解释所提供数字的一些差异。</blockquote></p><p> Perusing the first chart, it is obvious that NVDA is the most overvalued. It is also interesting to note that in the current P/E and the forward price/cash flow estimates show AMD as valued near the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>仔细阅读第一张图表，很明显 NVDA 被高估了。同样有趣的是，在当前的市盈率和远期价格/现金流估计中，AMD 的估值接近行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Count me as an investor that places great emphasis on a stocks PEG Ratio. Viewing the second chart, AMD has the best PEG of the three companies. I also note that analysts from each source calculated AMD’s PEG ratio as better than the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>把我算作一个非常重视股票挂钩比率的投资者。查看第二张图表，AMD 是三家公司中最好的。我还注意到，每个消息来源的分析师都计算出 AMD 的 PEG 比率好于行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Do not misinterpret my findings. While INTC has a lower valuation in many respects, when considering other factors, I rate AMD higher overall. In other words, it is not the cheapest valuation but the best valuation, for lack of a better means to articulate my view.</p><p><blockquote>不要曲解我的发现。虽然 INTC 在许多方面的估值较低，但当考虑其他因素时，我对 AMD 的总体评价较高。换句话说，这不是最便宜的估值，而是最好的估值，因为缺乏更好的方法来表达我的观点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Analysts’ Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师的目标价</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA shares currently trade for $202.95. The average 12-month price target of 33 analysts is $186.49. The average price target of the 17 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $210.53, about 3.7% above the current price of the stock.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价目前交易价格为 202.95 美元。33 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 186.49 美元。最新收益报告发布后对该股进行评级的 17 位分析师的平均目标价为 210.53 美元，比该股当前价格高出约 3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> AMD shares currently trade for $107.58. The average 12-month price target of 28 analysts is $108.56. The average price target of the 11 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $117.27, roughly 9% above the prevailing share price.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 股价目前交易价格为 107.58 美元。28 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 108.56 美元。最新收益报告发布后对该股进行评级的 11 位分析师的平均目标价为 117.27 美元，比当前股价高出约 9%。</blockquote></p><p> Intel shares currently trade for $54.05. The average 12-month price target of 34 analysts is $59.86. The average price target of the 16 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $58.97, a 9% premium over the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔股价目前交易价格为 54.05 美元。34 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 59.86 美元。最新收益报告发布后，对该股进行评级的 16 位分析师的平均目标价为 58.97 美元，比当前股价溢价 9%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that it has been nearly three months since NVDA posted quarterly earnings while INTC and AMD reported recently.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，距离 NVDA 发布季度收益以及 INTC 和 AMD 最近发布季度收益已经近三个月了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Tie AMD/INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=平局AMD/INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Growth Rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长率</b></blockquote></p><p> The next chart provides data for growth rates. Unless otherwise noted, the metrics reflect analysts' average two-year forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了增长率的数据。除非另有说明，这些指标反映了分析师的平均两年预测。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8ae1b79b3731a985fc209e626ca4886\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While investors familiar with these three companies would expect INTC to perform poorly in relation to NVDA and AMD in regarding growth, in several cases Intel is projected to experience negative growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>虽然熟悉这三家公司的投资者预计 INTC 在增长方面的表现将不如 NVDA 和 AMD，但在某些情况下，英特尔预计将出现负增长。</blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices projected growth leads that of NVIDIA in every category, and at times by very wide margins.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices 的预计增长在每个类别中都领先于 NVIDIA，有时甚至领先于 NVIDIA。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> I considered providing a chart outlining the profitability of each company; however, suffice it to say that each is highly profitable, and that a juxtaposition of the three would result in a tie.</p><p><blockquote>我考虑提供一张图表，概述每家公司的盈利能力；然而，可以说，每一个都是高利润的，这三个并置将导致平局。</blockquote></p><p> I often provide a comparison that breaks down dividend metrics, but AMD does not pay a dividend, and NVDA has an anemic yield. INTC currently yields about 2.6%. The dividend is well funded.</p><p><blockquote>我经常提供一个细分股息指标的比较，但 AMD 不支付股息，而 NVDA 的收益率也很低。INTC 目前的收益率约为 2.6%。股息资金充足。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务指标</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA had $12.67 billion in cash and $5.96 billion at the end of the last quarter. Should the ARM acquisition meet approval, the deal is structured so that $21 billion of the $40 billion purchase price will be in stock.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达上季度末拥有 126.7 亿美元现金和 59.6 亿美元现金。如果 ARM 收购获得批准，该交易的结构将使 400 亿美元收购价格中的 210 亿美元将有库存。</blockquote></p><p> AMD has restructured its debt resulting in reduced interest costs. AMD had about $3.8 billion in cash and $313 million in long-term debt at the end of the most recent quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 重组了债务，降低了利息成本。截至最近一个季度末，AMD 拥有约 38 亿美元现金和 3.13 亿美元长期债务。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's has solid investment-grade credit ratings. The company held nearly $24.86 billion cash at the end of the last quarter and had $31.7 billion long-term debt.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔拥有可靠的投资级信用评级。截至上季度末，该公司持有近248.6亿美元现金，长期债务为317亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All three firms have strong financial positions. Weighing the possibility that NVDA and AMD may add debt due to prospective acquisitions, I am rating the three firms as equals.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司都拥有雄厚的财务状况。权衡 NVDA 和 AMD 可能因潜在收购而增加债务的可能性，我对这三家公司的评级为同等。</blockquote></p><p> <b>R&amp;D Budgets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>研发预算</b></blockquote></p><p> This is the first time I have&nbsp;compared&nbsp;the R&amp;D budgets of companies for a head-to-head showdown. However, in the semiconductor industry, that can be of pivotal importance.</p><p><blockquote>这是我第一次对企业的研发预算进行针锋相对的对决。然而，在半导体行业，这可能至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> Last fiscal year, Intel devoted over $13.5 billion to R&amp;D, NVDA spent nearly $2.83 billion, and AMD budgeted a bit over $1.9 billion on research and development.</p><p><blockquote>上一财年，英特尔研发投入超过135亿美元，NVDA花费近28.3亿美元，AMD研发预算略高于19亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> AMD is at a clear disadvantage, and that weakness is magnified because it often competes against INTC and NVDA in different arenas. It should be noted that a portion of Intel’s R&amp;D is funneled to its foundry business. Nevertheless, it is the clear winner here, and AMD is the obvious loser.</p><p><blockquote>AMD处于明显的劣势，这种弱点被放大了，因为它经常在不同的领域与INTC和NVDA竞争。值得注意的是，英特尔的部分研发资金流向了代工业务。然而，它是这里明显的赢家，而AMD是明显的输家。</blockquote></p><p> I should add that NVDA is chipping away at AMD’s share of the discrete GPU market, and I believe that trend will continue, in part due to the disparity in R&amp;D budgets.</p><p><blockquote>我还应该补充一点，NVDA 正在蚕食 AMD 在独立 GPU 市场的份额，我相信这一趋势还会继续下去，部分原因是研发预算的差异。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一句话：哪只芯片股最好？</b></blockquote></p><p> To arrive at an answer, much depends on whether NVIDIA can complete its acquisition of ARM.</p><p><blockquote>要得出答案，很大程度上取决于英伟达能否完成对ARM的收购。</blockquote></p><p> Because ARM processors are more power and cost-efficient than x86 chips, NVDA could gain market share in the data center space. Since around a third of Intel’s revenue flows from data centers, that could represent a headwind for INTC and a positive for NVDA. However, there is a good chance the deal will fail to close.</p><p><blockquote>由于 ARM 处理器比 x86 芯片更强大、更具成本效益，NVDA 可以在数据中心领域获得市场份额。由于英特尔约三分之一的收入来自数据中心，这可能会给 INTC 带来阻力，而给 NVDA 带来利好。然而，这笔交易很有可能无法完成。</blockquote></p><p> The degree of success Intel finds as its&nbsp;planned&nbsp;foundries come online is another factor that should be weighed.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔计划中的代工厂上线后取得的成功程度是另一个需要权衡的因素。</blockquote></p><p> A development to be weighed is that AMD has now reached parity with INTC in the PC market in terms of the quality of its products. Furthermore, AMD is gaining market share in the server market, and I expect that trend to continue.</p><p><blockquote>一个需要权衡的发展是，就其产品质量而言，AMD现在已经在PC市场与INTC平起平坐。此外，AMD正在服务器市场获得市场份额，我预计这一趋势将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, AMD is losing share in the discrete GPU market to NVDA. NVDA has a technological lead in that space which will probably continue.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD 正在将独立 GPU 市场的份额输给 NVDA。NVDA 在该领域拥有技术领先地位，这种领先地位可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> While AMD and NVDA are seen as growth machines, one should not ignore that Intel’s Internet of Things business increased by 47% in the last quarter. Mobileye also saw a surge in growth with revenue increasing 124%. Although these businesses only totaled $1.3 billion in revenue, a fraction of Intel's total revenue of $18.5 billion, they still represent areas of high growth.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMD 和 NVDA 被视为增长机器，但我们不应忽视英特尔的物联网业务在上一季度增长了 47%。Mobileye 的增长也激增，收入增长了 124%。尽管这些业务的总收入只有13亿美元，只是英特尔185亿美元总收入的一小部分，但它们仍然代表着高增长的领域。</blockquote></p><p> However, note the header refers to “chip stock.” Consequently, technological advantages are but one part of the puzzle. Any investment decision must take current valuations and prospective growth rates into account.</p><p><blockquote>但请注意，标题指的是 “芯片库存”。因此，技术优势只是难题的一部分。任何投资决策都必须考虑当前估值和未来增长率。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, I must rate NVIDIA as a HOLD due to current valuation and growth estimates. Note my rating is based on the current valuation of the stock. I acknowledge the exemplary leadership of the company and believe the long-term prospect for the stock is excellent.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，由于当前的估值和增长预期，我必须将英伟达评级为持有。请注意，我的评级是基于股票的当前估值。我感谢公司的模范领导，并相信该股的长期前景非常好。</blockquote></p><p> I also rate INTC as a HOLD. I previously rated the company as a buy. While I still believe the firm will serve long-term investors well, I now believe its recovery will unfold over a long time span, and better opportunities are available.</p><p><blockquote>我还将 INTC 评级为持有。我之前将该公司评级为买入。虽然我仍然相信该公司将为长期投资者提供良好的服务，但我现在相信其复苏将在很长一段时间内展开，并且还有更好的机会。</blockquote></p><p> I rate AMD as a BUY. This is based on the current valuations and growth rates outlined in this article. I’ll add that those metrics are buttressed by my perception that as Intel works on its recovery, AMD is likely to chip away at market share.</p><p><blockquote>我将 AMD 评级为买入。这是基于本文中概述的当前估值和增长率。我还要补充一点，我认为随着英特尔努力复苏，AMD 很可能会蚕食市场份额，这也支撑了这些指标。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights into the technological aspects of an investment in AMD and INTC, I recommend an excellent article by SA&nbsp;contributor&nbsp;Keyanoush Razavidinani.</p><p><blockquote>要进一步了解AMD和INTC投资的技术方面，我推荐SA撰稿人Keyanoush Razavidinani的一篇优秀文章。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD, Intel, And Nvidia: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?<blockquote>AMD、英特尔和英伟达：哪只芯片股票最好？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD, Intel, And Nvidia: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?<blockquote>AMD、英特尔和英伟达：哪只芯片股票最好？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 10:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's recent CPU and GPU offerings have been more competitive with Intel and NVIDIA's products.</li>  <li>AMD’s EPYC server chips have proved to be comparable or even superior to certain Intel chips and have led to AMD gaining server CPU market share.</li>  <li>Even so, Intel is the leader in the processor market and holds long-term advantages over AMD in R&amp;D, marketing, and pricing.</li>  <li>Nvidia is ahead of AMD in GPU technology and is leveraging its GPUs into adjacent end markets such as artificial intelligence.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8f0aee0f3d10db76a1ee18fe604b40\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Andy/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD 最近的 CPU 和 GPU 产品与英特尔和英伟达的产品相比更具竞争力。</li><li>事实证明，AMD 的 EPYC 服务器芯片可与某些英特尔芯片媲美甚至更胜一筹，并帮助 AMD 获得了服务器 CPU 市场份额。</li><li>即便如此，英特尔仍然是处理器市场的领导者，在研发、营销和定价方面长期保持着相对于AMD的优势。</li><li>英伟达在 GPU 技术方面领先于 AMD，并正在利用其 GPU 进入人工智能等邻近终端市场。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安迪/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Intel (INTC) was once the microchip industry equivalent of the Colossus of Rhodes, a monument to the power of Moore’s law. However, the firm stumbled with its 10-nanometer process, and recently announced its 7-nm process will be delayed until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔（INTC）曾经是微芯片行业的罗兹巨像，是摩尔定律力量的丰碑。然而，该公司在 10 纳米工艺方面遇到了困难，最近宣布其 7 纳米工艺将推迟到 2023 年。</blockquote></p><p> This left the door open to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), and that firm has taken full advantage of the opportunity. AMD has taken a large share of the CPU market and is making inroads into the once nearly impenetrable server market.</p><p><blockquote>这为 Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) 敞开了大门，该公司充分利用了这个机会。AMD 已经占据了 CPU 市场的很大份额，并正在进军曾经几乎难以渗透的服务器市场。</blockquote></p><p> AMD now has seven consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth under its belt, and it appears the firm is gaining momentum: management now guides for 60% revenue growth for the full year, up from the 50% forecast provided in the previous quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 现已连续七个季度实现两位数收入增长，而且该公司似乎正在获得动力：管理层目前预计全年收入增长 60%，高于上一季度预测的 50%。</blockquote></p><p> However, AMD also competes with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), and the latter company’s GPU technology is stealing market share. NVDA has also been successful in gaining access to adjacent markets with its GPUs, especially AI and automotive markets.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD 还与英伟达公司（NVDA）竞争，后者的 GPU 技术正在抢走市场份额。NVDA 还成功凭借其 GPU 进入邻近市场，尤其是人工智能和汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ins And Outs of Intel</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔的来龙去脉</b></blockquote></p><p> An understanding of Intel also provides insights into AMD. This is due to the overlap between the two companies, particularly in regards to x86 chips. Intel developed the x86 chip in 1978. To satisfy demands by IBM that Intel would not be the sole supplier of the chips, INTC provided x86 instruction set architecture licensing to AMD.</p><p><blockquote>了解英特尔还可以深入了解 AMD。这是由于两家公司之间的重叠，特别是在x86芯片方面。英特尔在1978年开发了x86芯片。为了满足IBM的要求，即英特尔不会成为芯片的唯一供应商，INTC向AMD提供了x86指令集架构许可。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, Intel and AMD have a duopoly position in the PC and server markets, as nearly all computer software is written for x86 architecture. The result is that both have a wide moat related to the x86 ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>因此，英特尔和AMD在PC和服务器市场占据双头垄断地位，因为几乎所有的计算机软件都是为x86架构编写的。结果是，两者都有一条与x86生态系统相关的宽阔护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Gaming consoles in particular are based on x86 architecture due to those platforms generally providing more powerful CPUs and GPUs with multiple compute cores. Like PCs, consoles operate with games that use x86 based software. Once again, this stifles potential competition from ARM-based devices.</p><p><blockquote>游戏机尤其基于x86架构，因为这些平台通常提供具有多个计算核心的更强大的CPU和GPU。像个人电脑一样，游戏机运行使用基于x86软件的游戏。这再次扼杀了基于ARM的设备的潜在竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Until fairly recently, AMD was a distant second to INTC as a supplier of x86 chips. However, AMD teamed with Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM)to use that manufacturer’s 7nm process to surpass INTC in process technology. Combined with AMD’s developing new innovative chip designs, this one-two punch resulted in INTC losing significant market share.</p><p><blockquote>直到最近，作为x86芯片的供应商，AMD还远远落后于INTC。然而，AMD 与台积电（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TSM）合作，利用该制造商的 7 纳米工艺在工艺技术上超越了 INTC。再加上 AMD 开发新的创新芯片设计，这种一举两得的打击导致 INTC 失去了大量市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> At the end of Q1, AMD held 19.30% of the x86 desktop&nbsp;market, a 70 basis point gain year-over-year. In Q2 AMD corralled 8% of the server market, up from a 5%&nbsp;market&nbsp;share in Q4 of 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Q1末，AMD占据x86台式机市场19.30%的份额，同比增长70个基点。第二季度，AMD占据了服务器市场8%的份额，高于2019年第四季度5%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these setbacks, it seems premature to view Intel as a moribund business. INTC is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world. The firm dominates the server market, and still holds 60% of the global x86 CPU&nbsp;market.</p><p><blockquote>尽管遭遇了这些挫折，但将英特尔视为一家垂死的企业似乎还为时过早。INTC是世界上最大的半导体公司之一。该公司主导着服务器市场，仍然占据全球x86 CPU市场60%的份额。</blockquote></p><p> The company has an enormous R&amp;D budget, and it is expanding into new markets, primarily Artificial Intelligence, Field-Programmable Gate Array chips, and automotive offerings, through its acquisitions of Habana Labs, Altera, Movidius, and Mobileye.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有巨额研发预算，并通过收购 Habana Labs、Altera、Movidius 和 Mobileye，正在扩展到新市场，主要是人工智能、现场可编程门阵列芯片和汽车产品。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should not be swayed by the claim that Intel’s new 10nm chips are inferior to 7nm solely on the basis that 7 is superior to 10. While once used to denote the technology level of a chip design, it has been misused to the point of being useless.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不应仅仅因为 7 优于 10 就声称英特尔的新 10 纳米芯片不如 7 纳米。虽然它曾经被用来表示芯片设计的技术水平，但它已经被滥用到毫无用处的地步。</blockquote></p><p> However, there are a number of concerns that must be acknowledged. Intel lags competitors in the smartphone market. As consumers shift to mobile devices, this could result in a sustained headwind as smartphones take the place of PCs. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that INTC’s server processor business has seen growth associated with the surge in mobile devices and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，必须承认一些关切。英特尔在智能手机市场落后于竞争对手。随着消费者转向移动设备，随着智能手机取代个人电脑，这可能会导致持续的逆风。另一方面，应该承认的是，随着移动设备和云计算的激增，INTC 的服务器处理器业务也取得了增长。</blockquote></p><p> Intel also faces increased competition from AMD in the data center space, as well as customers developing their own ARM-based chips for CPUs.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔在数据中心领域还面临着来自 AMD 的日益激烈的竞争，以及客户为 CPU 开发自己的基于 ARM 的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An Overview of AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD概述</b></blockquote></p><p> In years past, INTC held the lion’s share of the x86 market. This was due in part to Intel’s leading-edge manufacturing combined with AMD’s wafer supply agreements with less than stellar GlobalFoundries.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几年里，INTC 占据了 x86 市场的最大份额。这在一定程度上要归功于英特尔领先的制造技术，以及 AMD 与不太出色的 GlobalFoundries 签订的晶圆供应协议。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> However, a seismic shift occurred due to three factors: driven by innovative designs, AMD brought competitive products to market, AMD shifted to TSMC for production, and Intel faced repeated manufacturing delays. The two charts below document the progress the company has made.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于三个因素发生了翻天覆地的变化：在创新设计的推动下，AMD将有竞争力的产品推向市场，AMD转向台积电进行生产，英特尔面临反复的制造延迟。下面的两个图表记录了公司取得的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/903df41d5400c9807ff487a75a7e5450\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/331cd14b666f520a62d0746d5fadfa5b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Like Intel, AMD’s primary products are CPUs and GPUs. AMD’s chips are designed for PCs, game consoles, servers, and blockchain applications. And like INTC, AMD’s offerings are largely protected from competition due to the preponderance of software for PCs and servers being designed for x86 architecture.</p><p><blockquote>与英特尔一样，AMD 的主要产品也是 CPU 和 GPU。AMD 的芯片专为 PC、游戏机、服务器和区块链应用而设计。与 INTC 一样，AMD 的产品在很大程度上免受竞争影响，因为 PC 和服务器软件大多是为 x86 架构设计的。</blockquote></p><p> AMD’s strong growth has largely come at the expense of Intel as AMD has steadily chipped away at the former company’s CPU market share.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 的强劲增长在很大程度上是以牺牲英特尔为代价的，因为 AMD 一直在稳步蚕食英特尔的 CPU 市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f8fbcab5da8a24d01d2b6408bd5686\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s focus on CPU and GPU semi-custom processor applications has resulted in their use in Microsoft Xbox and Sony PlayStation game consoles.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 专注于 CPU 和 GPU 半定制处理器应用，这使得它们在微软 Xbox 和索尼 PlayStation 游戏机中得到应用。</blockquote></p><p> In regards to PC integrated GPUs, AMD is roughly in parity with NVIDIA while INTC dominates with roughly 68% of the market.</p><p><blockquote>在 PC 集成 GPU 方面，AMD 与 NVIDIA 大致持平，而 INTC 则以约 68% 的市场份额占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67a0fe74d986cf882623a8f39587d0d8\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:tom'sHARDWARE</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：汤姆硬件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, NVIDIA dominates the discrete GPU space with an 80% plus market share with AMD sweeping up what is left. NVIDIA’s discrete GPUs are arguably superior to AMD’s (more on that later); therefore, investors should not look for growth here.</p><p><blockquote>然而，英伟达以80%以上的市场份额主导着独立GPU领域，AMD横扫了剩下的市场。英伟达的独立 GPU 可以说优于 AMD（稍后会详细介绍）；因此，投资者不应在这里寻求增长。</blockquote></p><p> Although AMD’s EPYC server CPU products were competitive with that of rivals, initially the company relied on aggressive pricing to promote its first generation of EPYC offerings. However, the EPYC line has gained wider acceptance, and with the Milan processors, the company is gaining market share. As server CPUs provide a better profit margin than the company’s other products, expansion into that space should aid in driving revenue.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMD 的 EPYC 服务器 CPU 产品与竞争对手相比具有竞争力，但该公司最初依靠激进的定价来推广其第一代 EPYC 产品。然而，EPYC系列已经获得了更广泛的认可，随着米兰处理器的推出，该公司正在获得市场份额。由于服务器 CPU 的利润率高于公司的其他产品，因此向该领域的扩张将有助于推动收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Late last year,AMD entered intoa deal&nbsp;to acquire&nbsp;Xilinx (XLNX), a leader in field programmable gate array (FPGA) chips. FPGAs can be used for a wide variety of applications. Because shifting to a competing FPGA provider requires retraining of engineers in software and design tools, customers are loath to make a switch to a competing vendor. Consequently, if the Xilinx deal goes through, AMD will have acquired a wide moat business. Management guides for operational efficiencies of approximately $300 million within 18 months of closing the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>去年年底，AMD 达成收购现场可编程门阵列 (FPGA) 芯片领导者赛灵思 (XLNX) 的交易。FPGA可用于各种各样的应用。由于转向竞争的 FPGA 供应商需要对工程师进行软件和设计工具方面的再培训，因此客户不愿意转向竞争供应商。因此，如果赛灵思交易成功，AMD 将获得广泛的护城河业务。交易完成后 18 个月内运营效率管理指南约为 3 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The Xilinx acquisition should bolster AMD’s data center and artificial intelligence businesses.</p><p><blockquote>收购赛灵思将有助于增强 AMD 的数据中心和人工智能业务。</blockquote></p><p> AMD agreed to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion in an all-stock transaction.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 同意以 350 亿美元的全股票交易收购赛灵思。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Survey of NVIDIA</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达调查</b></blockquote></p><p> NVDA's focus on the graphics processing units market has led the company to a dominant position in the discrete GPU space. The firm is the leader in discrete GPUs for computing platforms, especially gaming consoles. The fact that Intel licensed intellectual property from NVIDIA to integrate GPUs into its PC chipset testifies to the lead the company maintains.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA 对图形处理单元市场的关注使该公司在独立 GPU 领域占据了主导地位。该公司是计算平台（尤其是游戏机）分立 GPU 领域的领导者。英特尔从英伟达获得知识产权，将GPU集成到其PC芯片组中，这一事实证明了该公司保持的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below provides a record of the burgeoning ASP the company has been able to command over the last half decade, beginning with the Pascal architecture in 2016, and progressing through Turing to Ampere.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司在过去五年中能够控制的蓬勃发展的ASP，从2016年的Pascal架构开始，从图灵到安培。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fb1d71f9df02f6c63907fe784b2fd8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:AMD Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 投资者演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The firm’s chips are also found in many high-end PCs, and NVDA has particular strength in the incipient AI and self-driving vehicle markets.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的芯片也应用于许多高端个人电脑中，NVDA 在新兴的人工智能和自动驾驶汽车市场尤其具有实力。</blockquote></p><p> GPUs are being teamed with CPUs to&nbsp;enhance&nbsp;computation workloads. This stratagem is designed to bolster the ability of AI systems to perform computationally intensive tasks. AI related to&nbsp;autonomous&nbsp;vehicles is a developing strength for NVIDIA. Another arena in which the firm is making its mark is in cloud</p><p><blockquote>GPU正在与CPU合作，以增强计算工作负载。这一策略旨在增强人工智能系统执行计算密集型任务的能力。与自动驾驶汽车相关的人工智能是英伟达不断发展的优势。该公司在云计算领域崭露头角的另一个领域</blockquote></p><p> AI and data centers pose the most likely avenue of growth for NVDA. To strengthen its position in both businesses, the company moved last year to acquire ARM Holdings (ARMHF) from parent company Softbank for $40 billion.</p><p><blockquote>人工智能和数据中心是 NVDA 最有可能的增长途径。为了巩固其在这两项业务中的地位，该公司去年以 400 亿美元从母公司软银手中收购了 ARM Holdings (ARMHF)。</blockquote></p><p> ARM is the globe’s largest licensor of chip designs. Its chips are ubiquitous and can be found in mobile phones, smart TVs, and tablet computers. 160 billion chips have been made using ARM designs.</p><p><blockquote>ARM 是全球最大的芯片设计许可商。它的芯片无处不在，可以在手机、智能电视和平板电脑中找到。使用ARM设计已经制造了1600亿个芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Perhaps of equal importance is that 13 million developers work with ARM devices. To place that in context, NVDA has 2 million developers working on its array of devices.</p><p><blockquote>也许同样重要的是，1300万开发者使用ARM设备。从上下文来看，NVDA 有 200 万开发人员在其设备阵列上工作。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately for investors, bothChinaand theU.K.are reportedly balking at approving the deal.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说不幸的是，据报道，中国和theU.K.都不愿批准这笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Head-To-Head Comparisons</b></p><p><blockquote><b>头对头比较</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值指标</b></blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a variety of metrics related to each stock's valuation. All data labeled forward is analysts’ next fiscal year consensus estimate.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了与每只股票估值相关的各种指标。所有标有“远期”字样的数据都是分析师对下一财年的一致估计。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bdeabcd2ea473601fbaaaa03235de77\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, I’m using a graph to provide PEG ratios for the three companies. As there can be fairly wide variations in PEG ratios due to analysts’ inputs, I prefer that readers have access to multiple sources when I find wide variance in the ratio.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我用一张图表来提供这三家公司的 PEG 比率。由于分析师的输入会导致 PEG 比率出现相当大的差异，因此当我发现比率存在较大差异时，我更希望读者能够获得多个来源。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884fc2142d97afcc9e2308e50058dd45\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Note that Seeking Alpha provides a three to five-year PEG, Schwab simply lists its metric as a PEG ratio, while Yahoo! Finance calculates a five-year ratio. This could explain some of the variance in the numbers provided.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，Seeking Alpha提供了三到五年的挂钩，Schwab只是将其指标列为挂钩比率，而Yahoo!财务计算五年比率。这可以解释所提供数字的一些差异。</blockquote></p><p> Perusing the first chart, it is obvious that NVDA is the most overvalued. It is also interesting to note that in the current P/E and the forward price/cash flow estimates show AMD as valued near the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>仔细阅读第一张图表，很明显 NVDA 被高估了。同样有趣的是，在当前的市盈率和远期价格/现金流估计中，AMD 的估值接近行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Count me as an investor that places great emphasis on a stocks PEG Ratio. Viewing the second chart, AMD has the best PEG of the three companies. I also note that analysts from each source calculated AMD’s PEG ratio as better than the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>把我算作一个非常重视股票挂钩比率的投资者。查看第二张图表，AMD 是三家公司中最好的。我还注意到，每个消息来源的分析师都计算出 AMD 的 PEG 比率好于行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Do not misinterpret my findings. While INTC has a lower valuation in many respects, when considering other factors, I rate AMD higher overall. In other words, it is not the cheapest valuation but the best valuation, for lack of a better means to articulate my view.</p><p><blockquote>不要曲解我的发现。虽然 INTC 在许多方面的估值较低，但当考虑其他因素时，我对 AMD 的总体评价较高。换句话说，这不是最便宜的估值，而是最好的估值，因为缺乏更好的方法来表达我的观点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Analysts’ Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师的目标价</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA shares currently trade for $202.95. The average 12-month price target of 33 analysts is $186.49. The average price target of the 17 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $210.53, about 3.7% above the current price of the stock.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价目前交易价格为 202.95 美元。33 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 186.49 美元。最新收益报告发布后对该股进行评级的 17 位分析师的平均目标价为 210.53 美元，比该股当前价格高出约 3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> AMD shares currently trade for $107.58. The average 12-month price target of 28 analysts is $108.56. The average price target of the 11 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $117.27, roughly 9% above the prevailing share price.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 股价目前交易价格为 107.58 美元。28 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 108.56 美元。最新收益报告发布后对该股进行评级的 11 位分析师的平均目标价为 117.27 美元，比当前股价高出约 9%。</blockquote></p><p> Intel shares currently trade for $54.05. The average 12-month price target of 34 analysts is $59.86. The average price target of the 16 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $58.97, a 9% premium over the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔股价目前交易价格为 54.05 美元。34 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 59.86 美元。最新收益报告发布后，对该股进行评级的 16 位分析师的平均目标价为 58.97 美元，比当前股价溢价 9%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that it has been nearly three months since NVDA posted quarterly earnings while INTC and AMD reported recently.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，距离 NVDA 发布季度收益以及 INTC 和 AMD 最近发布季度收益已经近三个月了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Tie AMD/INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=平局AMD/INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Growth Rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长率</b></blockquote></p><p> The next chart provides data for growth rates. Unless otherwise noted, the metrics reflect analysts' average two-year forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了增长率的数据。除非另有说明，这些指标反映了分析师的平均两年预测。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8ae1b79b3731a985fc209e626ca4886\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While investors familiar with these three companies would expect INTC to perform poorly in relation to NVDA and AMD in regarding growth, in several cases Intel is projected to experience negative growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>虽然熟悉这三家公司的投资者预计 INTC 在增长方面的表现将不如 NVDA 和 AMD，但在某些情况下，英特尔预计将出现负增长。</blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices projected growth leads that of NVIDIA in every category, and at times by very wide margins.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices 的预计增长在每个类别中都领先于 NVIDIA，有时甚至领先于 NVIDIA。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> I considered providing a chart outlining the profitability of each company; however, suffice it to say that each is highly profitable, and that a juxtaposition of the three would result in a tie.</p><p><blockquote>我考虑提供一张图表，概述每家公司的盈利能力；然而，可以说，每一个都是高利润的，这三个并置将导致平局。</blockquote></p><p> I often provide a comparison that breaks down dividend metrics, but AMD does not pay a dividend, and NVDA has an anemic yield. INTC currently yields about 2.6%. The dividend is well funded.</p><p><blockquote>我经常提供一个细分股息指标的比较，但 AMD 不支付股息，而 NVDA 的收益率也很低。INTC 目前的收益率约为 2.6%。股息资金充足。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务指标</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA had $12.67 billion in cash and $5.96 billion at the end of the last quarter. Should the ARM acquisition meet approval, the deal is structured so that $21 billion of the $40 billion purchase price will be in stock.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达上季度末拥有 126.7 亿美元现金和 59.6 亿美元现金。如果 ARM 收购获得批准，该交易的结构将使 400 亿美元收购价格中的 210 亿美元将有库存。</blockquote></p><p> AMD has restructured its debt resulting in reduced interest costs. AMD had about $3.8 billion in cash and $313 million in long-term debt at the end of the most recent quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 重组了债务，降低了利息成本。截至最近一个季度末，AMD 拥有约 38 亿美元现金和 3.13 亿美元长期债务。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's has solid investment-grade credit ratings. The company held nearly $24.86 billion cash at the end of the last quarter and had $31.7 billion long-term debt.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔拥有可靠的投资级信用评级。截至上季度末，该公司持有近248.6亿美元现金，长期债务为317亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All three firms have strong financial positions. Weighing the possibility that NVDA and AMD may add debt due to prospective acquisitions, I am rating the three firms as equals.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司都拥有雄厚的财务状况。权衡 NVDA 和 AMD 可能因潜在收购而增加债务的可能性，我对这三家公司的评级为同等。</blockquote></p><p> <b>R&amp;D Budgets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>研发预算</b></blockquote></p><p> This is the first time I have&nbsp;compared&nbsp;the R&amp;D budgets of companies for a head-to-head showdown. However, in the semiconductor industry, that can be of pivotal importance.</p><p><blockquote>这是我第一次对企业的研发预算进行针锋相对的对决。然而，在半导体行业，这可能至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> Last fiscal year, Intel devoted over $13.5 billion to R&amp;D, NVDA spent nearly $2.83 billion, and AMD budgeted a bit over $1.9 billion on research and development.</p><p><blockquote>上一财年，英特尔研发投入超过135亿美元，NVDA花费近28.3亿美元，AMD研发预算略高于19亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> AMD is at a clear disadvantage, and that weakness is magnified because it often competes against INTC and NVDA in different arenas. It should be noted that a portion of Intel’s R&amp;D is funneled to its foundry business. Nevertheless, it is the clear winner here, and AMD is the obvious loser.</p><p><blockquote>AMD处于明显的劣势，这种弱点被放大了，因为它经常在不同的领域与INTC和NVDA竞争。值得注意的是，英特尔的部分研发资金流向了代工业务。然而，它是这里明显的赢家，而AMD是明显的输家。</blockquote></p><p> I should add that NVDA is chipping away at AMD’s share of the discrete GPU market, and I believe that trend will continue, in part due to the disparity in R&amp;D budgets.</p><p><blockquote>我还应该补充一点，NVDA 正在蚕食 AMD 在独立 GPU 市场的份额，我相信这一趋势还会继续下去，部分原因是研发预算的差异。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一句话：哪只芯片股最好？</b></blockquote></p><p> To arrive at an answer, much depends on whether NVIDIA can complete its acquisition of ARM.</p><p><blockquote>要得出答案，很大程度上取决于英伟达能否完成对ARM的收购。</blockquote></p><p> Because ARM processors are more power and cost-efficient than x86 chips, NVDA could gain market share in the data center space. Since around a third of Intel’s revenue flows from data centers, that could represent a headwind for INTC and a positive for NVDA. However, there is a good chance the deal will fail to close.</p><p><blockquote>由于 ARM 处理器比 x86 芯片更强大、更具成本效益，NVDA 可以在数据中心领域获得市场份额。由于英特尔约三分之一的收入来自数据中心，这可能会给 INTC 带来阻力，而给 NVDA 带来利好。然而，这笔交易很有可能无法完成。</blockquote></p><p> The degree of success Intel finds as its&nbsp;planned&nbsp;foundries come online is another factor that should be weighed.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔计划中的代工厂上线后取得的成功程度是另一个需要权衡的因素。</blockquote></p><p> A development to be weighed is that AMD has now reached parity with INTC in the PC market in terms of the quality of its products. Furthermore, AMD is gaining market share in the server market, and I expect that trend to continue.</p><p><blockquote>一个需要权衡的发展是，就其产品质量而言，AMD现在已经在PC市场与INTC平起平坐。此外，AMD正在服务器市场获得市场份额，我预计这一趋势将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, AMD is losing share in the discrete GPU market to NVDA. NVDA has a technological lead in that space which will probably continue.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD 正在将独立 GPU 市场的份额输给 NVDA。NVDA 在该领域拥有技术领先地位，这种领先地位可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> While AMD and NVDA are seen as growth machines, one should not ignore that Intel’s Internet of Things business increased by 47% in the last quarter. Mobileye also saw a surge in growth with revenue increasing 124%. Although these businesses only totaled $1.3 billion in revenue, a fraction of Intel's total revenue of $18.5 billion, they still represent areas of high growth.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMD 和 NVDA 被视为增长机器，但我们不应忽视英特尔的物联网业务在上一季度增长了 47%。Mobileye 的增长也激增，收入增长了 124%。尽管这些业务的总收入只有13亿美元，只是英特尔185亿美元总收入的一小部分，但它们仍然代表着高增长的领域。</blockquote></p><p> However, note the header refers to “chip stock.” Consequently, technological advantages are but one part of the puzzle. Any investment decision must take current valuations and prospective growth rates into account.</p><p><blockquote>但请注意，标题指的是 “芯片库存”。因此，技术优势只是难题的一部分。任何投资决策都必须考虑当前估值和未来增长率。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, I must rate NVIDIA as a HOLD due to current valuation and growth estimates. Note my rating is based on the current valuation of the stock. I acknowledge the exemplary leadership of the company and believe the long-term prospect for the stock is excellent.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，由于当前的估值和增长预期，我必须将英伟达评级为持有。请注意，我的评级是基于股票的当前估值。我感谢公司的模范领导，并相信该股的长期前景非常好。</blockquote></p><p> I also rate INTC as a HOLD. I previously rated the company as a buy. While I still believe the firm will serve long-term investors well, I now believe its recovery will unfold over a long time span, and better opportunities are available.</p><p><blockquote>我还将 INTC 评级为持有。我之前将该公司评级为买入。虽然我仍然相信该公司将为长期投资者提供良好的服务，但我现在相信其复苏将在很长一段时间内展开，并且还有更好的机会。</blockquote></p><p> I rate AMD as a BUY. This is based on the current valuations and growth rates outlined in this article. I’ll add that those metrics are buttressed by my perception that as Intel works on its recovery, AMD is likely to chip away at market share.</p><p><blockquote>我将 AMD 评级为买入。这是基于本文中概述的当前估值和增长率。我还要补充一点，我认为随着英特尔努力复苏，AMD 很可能会蚕食市场份额，这也支撑了这些指标。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights into the technological aspects of an investment in AMD and INTC, I recommend an excellent article by SA&nbsp;contributor&nbsp;Keyanoush Razavidinani.</p><p><blockquote>要进一步了解AMD和INTC投资的技术方面，我推荐SA撰稿人Keyanoush Razavidinani的一篇优秀文章。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448637-amd-intel-nvidia-best-chip-stock\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad74e350b9b09d45929989f896aaa9d","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448637-amd-intel-nvidia-best-chip-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138705612","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD's recent CPU and GPU offerings have been more competitive with Intel and NVIDIA's products.\nAMD’s EPYC server chips have proved to be comparable or even superior to certain Intel chips and have led to AMD gaining server CPU market share.\nEven so, Intel is the leader in the processor market and holds long-term advantages over AMD in R&D, marketing, and pricing.\nNvidia is ahead of AMD in GPU technology and is leveraging its GPUs into adjacent end markets such as artificial intelligence.\n\nAndy/iStock via Getty Images\nIntel (INTC) was once the microchip industry equivalent of the Colossus of Rhodes, a monument to the power of Moore’s law. However, the firm stumbled with its 10-nanometer process, and recently announced its 7-nm process will be delayed until 2023.\nThis left the door open to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), and that firm has taken full advantage of the opportunity. AMD has taken a large share of the CPU market and is making inroads into the once nearly impenetrable server market.\nAMD now has seven consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth under its belt, and it appears the firm is gaining momentum: management now guides for 60% revenue growth for the full year, up from the 50% forecast provided in the previous quarter.\nHowever, AMD also competes with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), and the latter company’s GPU technology is stealing market share. NVDA has also been successful in gaining access to adjacent markets with its GPUs, especially AI and automotive markets.\nThe Ins And Outs of Intel\nAn understanding of Intel also provides insights into AMD. This is due to the overlap between the two companies, particularly in regards to x86 chips. Intel developed the x86 chip in 1978. To satisfy demands by IBM that Intel would not be the sole supplier of the chips, INTC provided x86 instruction set architecture licensing to AMD.\nConsequently, Intel and AMD have a duopoly position in the PC and server markets, as nearly all computer software is written for x86 architecture. The result is that both have a wide moat related to the x86 ecosystem.\nGaming consoles in particular are based on x86 architecture due to those platforms generally providing more powerful CPUs and GPUs with multiple compute cores. Like PCs, consoles operate with games that use x86 based software. Once again, this stifles potential competition from ARM-based devices.\nUntil fairly recently, AMD was a distant second to INTC as a supplier of x86 chips. However, AMD teamed with Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM)to use that manufacturer’s 7nm process to surpass INTC in process technology. Combined with AMD’s developing new innovative chip designs, this one-two punch resulted in INTC losing significant market share.\nAt the end of Q1, AMD held 19.30% of the x86 desktop market, a 70 basis point gain year-over-year. In Q2 AMD corralled 8% of the server market, up from a 5% market share in Q4 of 2019.\nDespite these setbacks, it seems premature to view Intel as a moribund business. INTC is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world. The firm dominates the server market, and still holds 60% of the global x86 CPU market.\nThe company has an enormous R&D budget, and it is expanding into new markets, primarily Artificial Intelligence, Field-Programmable Gate Array chips, and automotive offerings, through its acquisitions of Habana Labs, Altera, Movidius, and Mobileye.\nInvestors should not be swayed by the claim that Intel’s new 10nm chips are inferior to 7nm solely on the basis that 7 is superior to 10. While once used to denote the technology level of a chip design, it has been misused to the point of being useless.\nHowever, there are a number of concerns that must be acknowledged. Intel lags competitors in the smartphone market. As consumers shift to mobile devices, this could result in a sustained headwind as smartphones take the place of PCs. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that INTC’s server processor business has seen growth associated with the surge in mobile devices and cloud computing.\nIntel also faces increased competition from AMD in the data center space, as well as customers developing their own ARM-based chips for CPUs.\nAn Overview of AMD\nIn years past, INTC held the lion’s share of the x86 market. This was due in part to Intel’s leading-edge manufacturing combined with AMD’s wafer supply agreements with less than stellar GlobalFoundries.\nHowever, a seismic shift occurred due to three factors: driven by innovative designs, AMD brought competitive products to market, AMD shifted to TSMC for production, and Intel faced repeated manufacturing delays. The two charts below document the progress the company has made.\nSource:Q2 Earnings Presentation\nSource:Q2 Earnings Presentation\nLike Intel, AMD’s primary products are CPUs and GPUs. AMD’s chips are designed for PCs, game consoles, servers, and blockchain applications. And like INTC, AMD’s offerings are largely protected from competition due to the preponderance of software for PCs and servers being designed for x86 architecture.\nAMD’s strong growth has largely come at the expense of Intel as AMD has steadily chipped away at the former company’s CPU market share.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nAMD’s focus on CPU and GPU semi-custom processor applications has resulted in their use in Microsoft Xbox and Sony PlayStation game consoles.\nIn regards to PC integrated GPUs, AMD is roughly in parity with NVIDIA while INTC dominates with roughly 68% of the market.\nSource:tom'sHARDWARE\nHowever, NVIDIA dominates the discrete GPU space with an 80% plus market share with AMD sweeping up what is left. NVIDIA’s discrete GPUs are arguably superior to AMD’s (more on that later); therefore, investors should not look for growth here.\nAlthough AMD’s EPYC server CPU products were competitive with that of rivals, initially the company relied on aggressive pricing to promote its first generation of EPYC offerings. However, the EPYC line has gained wider acceptance, and with the Milan processors, the company is gaining market share. As server CPUs provide a better profit margin than the company’s other products, expansion into that space should aid in driving revenue.\nLate last year,AMD entered intoa deal to acquire Xilinx (XLNX), a leader in field programmable gate array (FPGA) chips. FPGAs can be used for a wide variety of applications. Because shifting to a competing FPGA provider requires retraining of engineers in software and design tools, customers are loath to make a switch to a competing vendor. Consequently, if the Xilinx deal goes through, AMD will have acquired a wide moat business. Management guides for operational efficiencies of approximately $300 million within 18 months of closing the transaction.\nThe Xilinx acquisition should bolster AMD’s data center and artificial intelligence businesses.\nAMD agreed to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion in an all-stock transaction.\nA Survey of NVIDIA\nNVDA's focus on the graphics processing units market has led the company to a dominant position in the discrete GPU space. The firm is the leader in discrete GPUs for computing platforms, especially gaming consoles. The fact that Intel licensed intellectual property from NVIDIA to integrate GPUs into its PC chipset testifies to the lead the company maintains.\nThe chart below provides a record of the burgeoning ASP the company has been able to command over the last half decade, beginning with the Pascal architecture in 2016, and progressing through Turing to Ampere.\nSource:AMD Investor Presentation\nThe firm’s chips are also found in many high-end PCs, and NVDA has particular strength in the incipient AI and self-driving vehicle markets.\nGPUs are being teamed with CPUs to enhance computation workloads. This stratagem is designed to bolster the ability of AI systems to perform computationally intensive tasks. AI related to autonomous vehicles is a developing strength for NVIDIA. Another arena in which the firm is making its mark is in cloud\nAI and data centers pose the most likely avenue of growth for NVDA. To strengthen its position in both businesses, the company moved last year to acquire ARM Holdings (ARMHF) from parent company Softbank for $40 billion.\nARM is the globe’s largest licensor of chip designs. Its chips are ubiquitous and can be found in mobile phones, smart TVs, and tablet computers. 160 billion chips have been made using ARM designs.\nPerhaps of equal importance is that 13 million developers work with ARM devices. To place that in context, NVDA has 2 million developers working on its array of devices.\nUnfortunately for investors, bothChinaand theU.K.are reportedly balking at approving the deal.\nHead-To-Head Comparisons\nValuation Metrics\nThe following chart provides a variety of metrics related to each stock's valuation. All data labeled forward is analysts’ next fiscal year consensus estimate.\nSource:Seeking Alpha Premium/ chart by author\nNext, I’m using a graph to provide PEG ratios for the three companies. As there can be fairly wide variations in PEG ratios due to analysts’ inputs, I prefer that readers have access to multiple sources when I find wide variance in the ratio.\nChart by author\nNote that Seeking Alpha provides a three to five-year PEG, Schwab simply lists its metric as a PEG ratio, while Yahoo! Finance calculates a five-year ratio. This could explain some of the variance in the numbers provided.\nPerusing the first chart, it is obvious that NVDA is the most overvalued. It is also interesting to note that in the current P/E and the forward price/cash flow estimates show AMD as valued near the sector median.\nCount me as an investor that places great emphasis on a stocks PEG Ratio. Viewing the second chart, AMD has the best PEG of the three companies. I also note that analysts from each source calculated AMD’s PEG ratio as better than the sector median.\nDo not misinterpret my findings. While INTC has a lower valuation in many respects, when considering other factors, I rate AMD higher overall. In other words, it is not the cheapest valuation but the best valuation, for lack of a better means to articulate my view.\n=Advantage AMD\nAnalysts’ Price Targets\nNVIDIA shares currently trade for $202.95. The average 12-month price target of 33 analysts is $186.49. The average price target of the 17 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $210.53, about 3.7% above the current price of the stock.\nAMD shares currently trade for $107.58. The average 12-month price target of 28 analysts is $108.56. The average price target of the 11 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $117.27, roughly 9% above the prevailing share price.\nIntel shares currently trade for $54.05. The average 12-month price target of 34 analysts is $59.86. The average price target of the 16 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $58.97, a 9% premium over the current share price.\nInvestors should be aware that it has been nearly three months since NVDA posted quarterly earnings while INTC and AMD reported recently.\n=Tie AMD/INTC\nGrowth Rates\nThe next chart provides data for growth rates. Unless otherwise noted, the metrics reflect analysts' average two-year forecasts.\nSource:Seeking Alpha Premium/ Chart by author\nWhile investors familiar with these three companies would expect INTC to perform poorly in relation to NVDA and AMD in regarding growth, in several cases Intel is projected to experience negative growth rates.\nAdvanced Micro Devices projected growth leads that of NVIDIA in every category, and at times by very wide margins.\n=Advantage AMD\nI considered providing a chart outlining the profitability of each company; however, suffice it to say that each is highly profitable, and that a juxtaposition of the three would result in a tie.\nI often provide a comparison that breaks down dividend metrics, but AMD does not pay a dividend, and NVDA has an anemic yield. INTC currently yields about 2.6%. The dividend is well funded.\nDebt Metrics\nNVIDIA had $12.67 billion in cash and $5.96 billion at the end of the last quarter. Should the ARM acquisition meet approval, the deal is structured so that $21 billion of the $40 billion purchase price will be in stock.\nAMD has restructured its debt resulting in reduced interest costs. AMD had about $3.8 billion in cash and $313 million in long-term debt at the end of the most recent quarter.\nIntel's has solid investment-grade credit ratings. The company held nearly $24.86 billion cash at the end of the last quarter and had $31.7 billion long-term debt.\nAll three firms have strong financial positions. Weighing the possibility that NVDA and AMD may add debt due to prospective acquisitions, I am rating the three firms as equals.\nR&D Budgets\nThis is the first time I have compared the R&D budgets of companies for a head-to-head showdown. However, in the semiconductor industry, that can be of pivotal importance.\nLast fiscal year, Intel devoted over $13.5 billion to R&D, NVDA spent nearly $2.83 billion, and AMD budgeted a bit over $1.9 billion on research and development.\nAMD is at a clear disadvantage, and that weakness is magnified because it often competes against INTC and NVDA in different arenas. It should be noted that a portion of Intel’s R&D is funneled to its foundry business. Nevertheless, it is the clear winner here, and AMD is the obvious loser.\nI should add that NVDA is chipping away at AMD’s share of the discrete GPU market, and I believe that trend will continue, in part due to the disparity in R&D budgets.\n=Advantage INTC\nBottom Line: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?\nTo arrive at an answer, much depends on whether NVIDIA can complete its acquisition of ARM.\nBecause ARM processors are more power and cost-efficient than x86 chips, NVDA could gain market share in the data center space. Since around a third of Intel’s revenue flows from data centers, that could represent a headwind for INTC and a positive for NVDA. However, there is a good chance the deal will fail to close.\nThe degree of success Intel finds as its planned foundries come online is another factor that should be weighed.\nA development to be weighed is that AMD has now reached parity with INTC in the PC market in terms of the quality of its products. Furthermore, AMD is gaining market share in the server market, and I expect that trend to continue.\nOn the other hand, AMD is losing share in the discrete GPU market to NVDA. NVDA has a technological lead in that space which will probably continue.\nWhile AMD and NVDA are seen as growth machines, one should not ignore that Intel’s Internet of Things business increased by 47% in the last quarter. Mobileye also saw a surge in growth with revenue increasing 124%. Although these businesses only totaled $1.3 billion in revenue, a fraction of Intel's total revenue of $18.5 billion, they still represent areas of high growth.\nHowever, note the header refers to “chip stock.” Consequently, technological advantages are but one part of the puzzle. Any investment decision must take current valuations and prospective growth rates into account.\nWith that in mind, I must rate NVIDIA as a HOLD due to current valuation and growth estimates. Note my rating is based on the current valuation of the stock. I acknowledge the exemplary leadership of the company and believe the long-term prospect for the stock is excellent.\nI also rate INTC as a HOLD. I previously rated the company as a buy. While I still believe the firm will serve long-term investors well, I now believe its recovery will unfold over a long time span, and better opportunities are available.\nI rate AMD as a BUY. This is based on the current valuations and growth rates outlined in this article. I’ll add that those metrics are buttressed by my perception that as Intel works on its recovery, AMD is likely to chip away at market share.\nFor additional insights into the technological aspects of an investment in AMD and INTC, I recommend an excellent article by SA contributor Keyanoush Razavidinani.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892682412,"gmtCreate":1628655402036,"gmtModify":1631892482946,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571887370744856","authorIdStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice article","listText":"nice article","text":"nice article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892682412","repostId":"1115544672","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115544672","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628652297,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1115544672?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-11 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Elon Musk’s SpaceX Could Be an Infrastructure Bill Loser. Here’s Why.<blockquote>埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的 SpaceX 可能会成为基础设施法案的输家。原因如下。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115544672","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"There are unintended consequences to almost any decision. AndTeslaCEO Elon Musk’s SpaceX might be im","content":"<p>There are unintended consequences to almost any decision. AndTeslaCEO Elon Musk’s SpaceX might be impacted by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of them.</p><p><blockquote>几乎任何决定都会产生意想不到的后果。特斯拉EO埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX可能会受到影响<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>其中。</blockquote></p><p> The2,700-plus-page trillion-dollar infrastructure package moving its way through the U.S. Senate has about $65 billion pegged for ruralbroadband internet. That’s surely a good thing. In this modern world, everyone needs high-speed internet access for work, learning, and, frankly, streamingNetflix(ticker: NFLX).</p><p><blockquote>2700多页的万亿美元基础设施一揽子计划正在美国推进。参议院为农村宽带互联网拨款约650亿美元。这当然是件好事。在这个现代世界，每个人都需要高速互联网接入来工作、学习，坦率地说，还需要流媒体网飞（股票代码：NFLX）。</blockquote></p><p> The bill would help companies likeAT&amp;T(T) andCharter <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JCS\">Communications</a>(CHTR) deliver coverage to rural areas. AT&amp;T CEOJohn Stankeycalled the benefits of a potential infrastructure bill “icing on the cake” back in April. But AT&amp;T may not even need the support. “I think we can move forward without this policy to deliver to you what we said we were going to deliver,” the CEO said.</p><p><blockquote>该法案将帮助 &amp;T(T) 和 Charter 等公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JCS\">通讯</a>（CHTR）向农村地区提供覆盖。早在四月份，美国电话电报公司首席执行官约翰-斯坦基（John Stankey）就称潜在基础设施法案的好处是 “锦上添花”。但是美国电话电报公司可能甚至不需要支持。“首席执行官说：”我认为，在没有这项政策的情况下，我们也可以继续前进，向你们提供我们所说的要提供的东西。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, funding for broadband technology may actually hurt the next generation of high-speed internet technology—or make it harder for new tech to compete.</p><p><blockquote>最终，对宽带技术的资助实际上可能会损害下一代高速互联网技术，或者使新技术更难竞争。</blockquote></p><p> SpaceXwants to offer high-speed, space-based internet to the masses.Elon Musk’sspace company has launched hundreds of its smallStarlink satellitesinto low earth orbit.</p><p><blockquote>埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的太空公司已将数百颗smallStarlink卫星发射到近地轨道。</blockquote></p><p> The SpaceX broadband business could be worth$42 billion, according to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analystAdam Jonas. That was his estimate about a year ago. SpaceX isn’t a publicly traded company, and analysts don’t frequently update numbers for private firms—if they maintain any at all.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，SpaceX 宽带业务价值可能达到 420 亿美元<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师乔纳斯。这是他大约一年前的估计。SpaceX 不是一家上市公司，分析师也不会经常更新私营公司的数据--如果他们有的话。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever the Starlink number is today, it’s a big part of the$74 billionprivate market valuation SpaceX reached in early 2021.</p><p><blockquote>无论星链今天的数字是多少，它都是 SpaceX 在 2021 年初达到的 740 亿美元私人市场估值的重要组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> Starlink can, in theory, deliver internet anywhere, but it is better in rural areas, according to Musk. Now Starlink may have a healthier competitor—the existing broadband industry, with a $65 billion subsidy.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克表示，理论上，星链可以在任何地方提供互联网，但在农村地区更好。现在星链可能有了一个更健康的竞争对手——现有的宽带行业，有650亿美元的补贴。</blockquote></p><p> Yet the subsidy might not change the competitive position all that much. The economics of the space-based internet offerings isn’t set in stone. Jonas assumes Starlink will charge about $25 to $50 a month for its high-speed internet service. That, however, is an early estimate and doesn’t really consider regional differences and customers’ ability to pay around the globe.</p><p><blockquote>然而，补贴可能不会改变竞争地位太大。天基互联网产品的经济效益并非一成不变。乔纳斯假设星链每月将为其高速互联网服务收取约25至50美元的费用。不过，这只是一个早期估计，并没有真正考虑地区差异和客户在全球范围内的支付能力。</blockquote></p><p> The broadband players, of course, also have existing businesses that make money. Those profits could be used to subsidize any rural initiatives. Business is complicated. Government decisions sometimes add to the complexity. That is one thing lawmakers might want to consider when deciding who gets taxpayer money.</p><p><blockquote>当然，宽带运营商也有现有企业赚钱。这些利润可以用来补贴任何农村倡议。生意很复杂。政府决策有时会增加复杂性。这是立法者在决定谁得到纳税人的钱时可能要考虑的一件事。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Elon Musk’s SpaceX Could Be an Infrastructure Bill Loser. Here’s Why.<blockquote>埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的 SpaceX 可能会成为基础设施法案的输家。原因如下。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElon Musk’s SpaceX Could Be an Infrastructure Bill Loser. Here’s Why.<blockquote>埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的 SpaceX 可能会成为基础设施法案的输家。原因如下。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market Wacth</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-11 11:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There are unintended consequences to almost any decision. AndTeslaCEO Elon Musk’s SpaceX might be impacted by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of them.</p><p><blockquote>几乎任何决定都会产生意想不到的后果。特斯拉EO埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX可能会受到影响<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>其中。</blockquote></p><p> The2,700-plus-page trillion-dollar infrastructure package moving its way through the U.S. Senate has about $65 billion pegged for ruralbroadband internet. That’s surely a good thing. In this modern world, everyone needs high-speed internet access for work, learning, and, frankly, streamingNetflix(ticker: NFLX).</p><p><blockquote>2700多页的万亿美元基础设施一揽子计划正在美国推进。参议院为农村宽带互联网拨款约650亿美元。这当然是件好事。在这个现代世界，每个人都需要高速互联网接入来工作、学习，坦率地说，还需要流媒体网飞（股票代码：NFLX）。</blockquote></p><p> The bill would help companies likeAT&amp;T(T) andCharter <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JCS\">Communications</a>(CHTR) deliver coverage to rural areas. AT&amp;T CEOJohn Stankeycalled the benefits of a potential infrastructure bill “icing on the cake” back in April. But AT&amp;T may not even need the support. “I think we can move forward without this policy to deliver to you what we said we were going to deliver,” the CEO said.</p><p><blockquote>该法案将帮助 &amp;T(T) 和 Charter 等公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JCS\">通讯</a>（CHTR）向农村地区提供覆盖。早在四月份，美国电话电报公司首席执行官约翰-斯坦基（John Stankey）就称潜在基础设施法案的好处是 “锦上添花”。但是美国电话电报公司可能甚至不需要支持。“首席执行官说：”我认为，在没有这项政策的情况下，我们也可以继续前进，向你们提供我们所说的要提供的东西。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, funding for broadband technology may actually hurt the next generation of high-speed internet technology—or make it harder for new tech to compete.</p><p><blockquote>最终，对宽带技术的资助实际上可能会损害下一代高速互联网技术，或者使新技术更难竞争。</blockquote></p><p> SpaceXwants to offer high-speed, space-based internet to the masses.Elon Musk’sspace company has launched hundreds of its smallStarlink satellitesinto low earth orbit.</p><p><blockquote>埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的太空公司已将数百颗smallStarlink卫星发射到近地轨道。</blockquote></p><p> The SpaceX broadband business could be worth$42 billion, according to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analystAdam Jonas. That was his estimate about a year ago. SpaceX isn’t a publicly traded company, and analysts don’t frequently update numbers for private firms—if they maintain any at all.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，SpaceX 宽带业务价值可能达到 420 亿美元<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师乔纳斯。这是他大约一年前的估计。SpaceX 不是一家上市公司，分析师也不会经常更新私营公司的数据--如果他们有的话。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever the Starlink number is today, it’s a big part of the$74 billionprivate market valuation SpaceX reached in early 2021.</p><p><blockquote>无论星链今天的数字是多少，它都是 SpaceX 在 2021 年初达到的 740 亿美元私人市场估值的重要组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> Starlink can, in theory, deliver internet anywhere, but it is better in rural areas, according to Musk. Now Starlink may have a healthier competitor—the existing broadband industry, with a $65 billion subsidy.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克表示，理论上，星链可以在任何地方提供互联网，但在农村地区更好。现在星链可能有了一个更健康的竞争对手——现有的宽带行业，有650亿美元的补贴。</blockquote></p><p> Yet the subsidy might not change the competitive position all that much. The economics of the space-based internet offerings isn’t set in stone. Jonas assumes Starlink will charge about $25 to $50 a month for its high-speed internet service. That, however, is an early estimate and doesn’t really consider regional differences and customers’ ability to pay around the globe.</p><p><blockquote>然而，补贴可能不会改变竞争地位太大。天基互联网产品的经济效益并非一成不变。乔纳斯假设星链每月将为其高速互联网服务收取约25至50美元的费用。不过，这只是一个早期估计，并没有真正考虑地区差异和客户在全球范围内的支付能力。</blockquote></p><p> The broadband players, of course, also have existing businesses that make money. Those profits could be used to subsidize any rural initiatives. Business is complicated. Government decisions sometimes add to the complexity. That is one thing lawmakers might want to consider when deciding who gets taxpayer money.</p><p><blockquote>当然，宽带运营商也有现有企业赚钱。这些利润可以用来补贴任何农村倡议。生意很复杂。政府决策有时会增加复杂性。这是立法者在决定谁得到纳税人的钱时可能要考虑的一件事。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/how-this-infrastructure-bill-will-hurt-spacex-51628006007?mod=home-page\">Market Wacth</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/how-this-infrastructure-bill-will-hurt-spacex-51628006007?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115544672","content_text":"There are unintended consequences to almost any decision. AndTeslaCEO Elon Musk’s SpaceX might be impacted by one of them.\nThe2,700-plus-page trillion-dollar infrastructure package moving its way through the U.S. Senate has about $65 billion pegged for ruralbroadband internet. That’s surely a good thing. In this modern world, everyone needs high-speed internet access for work, learning, and, frankly, streamingNetflix(ticker: NFLX).\nThe bill would help companies likeAT&T(T) andCharter Communications(CHTR) deliver coverage to rural areas. AT&T CEOJohn Stankeycalled the benefits of a potential infrastructure bill “icing on the cake” back in April. But AT&T may not even need the support. “I think we can move forward without this policy to deliver to you what we said we were going to deliver,” the CEO said.\nIn the end, funding for broadband technology may actually hurt the next generation of high-speed internet technology—or make it harder for new tech to compete.\nSpaceXwants to offer high-speed, space-based internet to the masses.Elon Musk’sspace company has launched hundreds of its smallStarlink satellitesinto low earth orbit.\nThe SpaceX broadband business could be worth$42 billion, according to Morgan Stanley analystAdam Jonas. That was his estimate about a year ago. SpaceX isn’t a publicly traded company, and analysts don’t frequently update numbers for private firms—if they maintain any at all.\nWhatever the Starlink number is today, it’s a big part of the$74 billionprivate market valuation SpaceX reached in early 2021.\nStarlink can, in theory, deliver internet anywhere, but it is better in rural areas, according to Musk. Now Starlink may have a healthier competitor—the existing broadband industry, with a $65 billion subsidy.\nYet the subsidy might not change the competitive position all that much. The economics of the space-based internet offerings isn’t set in stone. Jonas assumes Starlink will charge about $25 to $50 a month for its high-speed internet service. That, however, is an early estimate and doesn’t really consider regional differences and customers’ ability to pay around the globe.\nThe broadband players, of course, also have existing businesses that make money. Those profits could be used to subsidize any rural initiatives. Business is complicated. Government decisions sometimes add to the complexity. That is one thing lawmakers might want to consider when deciding who gets taxpayer money.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891176106,"gmtCreate":1628364033605,"gmtModify":1631892482948,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571887370744856","authorIdStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891176106","repostId":"1139912651","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893385941,"gmtCreate":1628238300183,"gmtModify":1631892482952,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571887370744856","authorIdStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893385941","repostId":"1199424695","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":834336427,"gmtCreate":1629771100269,"gmtModify":1631889874343,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571887370744856","idStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834336427","repostId":"2161777891","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141363531,"gmtCreate":1625839244123,"gmtModify":1633936825565,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571887370744856","idStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like and comment","listText":"like and comment","text":"like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141363531","repostId":"1187480487","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187480487","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625838849,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187480487?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 21:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Disney shares rises nearly 2%,as Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.<blockquote>随着上海迪士尼乐园将价格提高到10%，迪士尼股价上涨近2%。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187480487","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Disney shares rises nearly 2%,as Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.\n\n\nShanghai Disneyland","content":"<p>Disney&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rises&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;2%,as&nbsp;Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.</p><p><blockquote>随着上海迪士尼乐园将价格提高到10%，迪士尼股价上涨近2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8b245ccacada732569aab91c7bad577\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shanghai Disneyland (DIS+0.7%) willraise its ticket prices starting in January.</li>  <li>The resort indicated it would boost prices on Jan. 9, setting new rates for four tiers: Regular, Regular Plus, Peak (most days in summer season and other peak visitation days), and Peak Plus.</li>  <li>The Regular price at that time will be 435 yuan (about $67.13). Regular Plus will be 545 yuan (about $84.11). Meanwhile, Peak price is set at 659 yuan ($101.70) and Peak Plus at 769 yuan ($118.67).</li>  <li>That results in increases of 9-10% across the board.</li>  <b>Disney</b>&nbsp;is gearing up for a big weekend at the box office as the long-delayed \"Black Widow\" is set for its theatrical release worldwide on July 9. Disney stock rose.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上海迪士尼乐园（DIS+0.7%）将从1月份开始提高门票价格。</li><li>该度假村表示将在1月9日提高价格，为四个等级设定新的价格：普通、普通加、高峰（夏季的大多数日子和其他旅游高峰日）和高峰加。</li><li>届时的正常价格将是435元人民币（约合67.13美元）。普通版Plus将为545元人民币（约合84.11美元）。同时，Peak price 定为 659 元（101.70 美元），Peak Plus 定为 769 元（118.67 美元）。</li><li>这导致全面增长9-10%。</li><b>迪士尼</b>随着拖延已久的《黑寡妇》将于7月9日在全球上映，正在为票房上的一个大周末做准备。迪士尼股价上涨。</ul></blockquote></p><p>  Worldwide estimates for \"Black Widow\" are as high as $140 million, according to Deadline. That doesn't include China, Marvel's biggest market, as it doesn't yet have a release date there.</p><p><blockquote>据Deadline称，全球对《黑寡妇》的估计高达1.4亿美元。这不包括漫威最大的市场中国，因为它在那里还没有上映日期。</blockquote></p><p> </ul></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney shares rises nearly 2%,as Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.<blockquote>随着上海迪士尼乐园将价格提高到10%，迪士尼股价上涨近2%。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney shares rises nearly 2%,as Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.<blockquote>随着上海迪士尼乐园将价格提高到10%，迪士尼股价上涨近2%。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-09 21:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Disney&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rises&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;2%,as&nbsp;Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.</p><p><blockquote>随着上海迪士尼乐园将价格提高到10%，迪士尼股价上涨近2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8b245ccacada732569aab91c7bad577\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shanghai Disneyland (DIS+0.7%) willraise its ticket prices starting in January.</li>  <li>The resort indicated it would boost prices on Jan. 9, setting new rates for four tiers: Regular, Regular Plus, Peak (most days in summer season and other peak visitation days), and Peak Plus.</li>  <li>The Regular price at that time will be 435 yuan (about $67.13). Regular Plus will be 545 yuan (about $84.11). Meanwhile, Peak price is set at 659 yuan ($101.70) and Peak Plus at 769 yuan ($118.67).</li>  <li>That results in increases of 9-10% across the board.</li>  <b>Disney</b>&nbsp;is gearing up for a big weekend at the box office as the long-delayed \"Black Widow\" is set for its theatrical release worldwide on July 9. Disney stock rose.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上海迪士尼乐园（DIS+0.7%）将从1月份开始提高门票价格。</li><li>该度假村表示将在1月9日提高价格，为四个等级设定新的价格：普通、普通加、高峰（夏季的大多数日子和其他旅游高峰日）和高峰加。</li><li>届时的正常价格将是435元人民币（约合67.13美元）。普通版Plus将为545元人民币（约合84.11美元）。同时，Peak price 定为 659 元（101.70 美元），Peak Plus 定为 769 元（118.67 美元）。</li><li>这导致全面增长9-10%。</li><b>迪士尼</b>随着拖延已久的《黑寡妇》将于7月9日在全球上映，正在为票房上的一个大周末做准备。迪士尼股价上涨。</ul></blockquote></p><p>  Worldwide estimates for \"Black Widow\" are as high as $140 million, according to Deadline. That doesn't include China, Marvel's biggest market, as it doesn't yet have a release date there.</p><p><blockquote>据Deadline称，全球对《黑寡妇》的估计高达1.4亿美元。这不包括漫威最大的市场中国，因为它在那里还没有上映日期。</blockquote></p><p> </ul></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187480487","content_text":"Disney shares rises nearly 2%,as Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.\n\n\nShanghai Disneyland (DIS+0.7%) willraise its ticket prices starting in January.\nThe resort indicated it would boost prices on Jan. 9, setting new rates for four tiers: Regular, Regular Plus, Peak (most days in summer season and other peak visitation days), and Peak Plus.\nThe Regular price at that time will be 435 yuan (about $67.13). Regular Plus will be 545 yuan (about $84.11). Meanwhile, Peak price is set at 659 yuan ($101.70) and Peak Plus at 769 yuan ($118.67).\nThat results in increases of 9-10% across the board.\nDisney is gearing up for a big weekend at the box office as the long-delayed \"Black Widow\" is set for its theatrical release worldwide on July 9. Disney stock rose.\nWorldwide estimates for \"Black Widow\" are as high as $140 million, according to Deadline. That doesn't include China, Marvel's biggest market, as it doesn't yet have a release date there.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378806837,"gmtCreate":1619013796529,"gmtModify":1634289216726,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571887370744856","idStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"wishing for more bad news for tesla then I can buy the dip","listText":"wishing for more bad news for tesla then I can buy the dip","text":"wishing for more bad news for tesla then I can buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378806837","repostId":"1114709501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114709501","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619012348,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1114709501?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-21 21:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价早盘下跌超过 2%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114709501","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in B","content":"<p>Tesla stock&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in Berlin is likely to be significantly delayed,according to&nbsp;German business daily.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在周三早盘交易中下跌超过 2%。据德国《商业日报》报道， 特斯拉柏林超级工厂的启动可能会大幅推迟。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b525edb3c12a6ee6740baf665aa59a9e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Previously, Zhengzhou Zhengdong New District Municipal Supervision Bureau ordered Tesla to provide the complete driving data half an hour before the accident unconditionally; in addition, in the first quarter, the registration volume of model 3 in California dropped 54% to 8060 vehicles year on year.</p><p><blockquote>此前，郑州市郑东新区市监局责令特斯拉无条件提供事故发生前半小时完整行车数据；此外，第一季度，model 3在加州的注册量同比下降54%至8060辆。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价早盘下跌超过 2%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla stock dropped more than 2% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价早盘下跌超过 2%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-21 21:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla stock&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in Berlin is likely to be significantly delayed,according to&nbsp;German business daily.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在周三早盘交易中下跌超过 2%。据德国《商业日报》报道， 特斯拉柏林超级工厂的启动可能会大幅推迟。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b525edb3c12a6ee6740baf665aa59a9e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Previously, Zhengzhou Zhengdong New District Municipal Supervision Bureau ordered Tesla to provide the complete driving data half an hour before the accident unconditionally; in addition, in the first quarter, the registration volume of model 3 in California dropped 54% to 8060 vehicles year on year.</p><p><blockquote>此前，郑州市郑东新区市监局责令特斯拉无条件提供事故发生前半小时完整行车数据；此外，第一季度，model 3在加州的注册量同比下降54%至8060辆。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114709501","content_text":"Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in Berlin is likely to be significantly delayed,according to German business daily.Previously, Zhengzhou Zhengdong New District Municipal Supervision Bureau ordered Tesla to provide the complete driving data half an hour before the accident unconditionally; in addition, in the first quarter, the registration volume of model 3 in California dropped 54% to 8060 vehicles year on year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369495708,"gmtCreate":1614068220604,"gmtModify":1634551319480,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571887370744856","idStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment thanks","listText":"Like and comment thanks","text":"Like and comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369495708","repostId":"2113384299","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832098795,"gmtCreate":1629535250017,"gmtModify":1631889874346,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571887370744856","idStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like comment","listText":"like comment","text":"like comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832098795","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNPS":"新思科技","AAPL":"苹果","TSM":"台积电","QCOM":"高通","NVDA":"英伟达","CDNS":"铿腾电子","GOOG":"谷歌","ASML":"阿斯麦","GOOGL":"谷歌A","SSNLF":"三星电子","AMZN":"亚马逊","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","ON":"安森美半导体"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"ON":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177508907,"gmtCreate":1627233128009,"gmtModify":1633767010262,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571887370744856","idStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177508907","repostId":"2153878189","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133560126,"gmtCreate":1621770026065,"gmtModify":1634186677441,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571887370744856","idStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like and&nbsp;comment thank you kind ones","listText":"like and&nbsp;comment thank you kind ones","text":"like and comment thank you kind ones","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133560126","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":878506241,"gmtCreate":1637202463889,"gmtModify":1637202464048,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571887370744856","idStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"comment thx","listText":"comment thx","text":"comment thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878506241","repostId":"2184547718","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":856099476,"gmtCreate":1635127398748,"gmtModify":1635127399163,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571887370744856","idStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"comment","listText":"comment","text":"comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856099476","repostId":"2178808449","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886367672,"gmtCreate":1631561824796,"gmtModify":1631889874327,"author":{"id":"3571887370744856","authorId":"3571887370744856","name":"ChiiKang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2cc826f1bfd431e6f169540f39cef5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571887370744856","idStr":"3571887370744856"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"comment","listText":"comment","text":"comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886367672","repostId":"2167630550","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}