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2020-12-27

Nice sharing

林园："消费估值过高"判断是错的，茅台比黄金值得投资

2020-12-27

Follow

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-12-27

Interesting ventures

What Apple Would Want From the Auto Market?<blockquote>苹果想从汽车市场得到什么？</blockquote>

2020-12-27

Electric car is the future

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-12-27

Yup

Tech Stocks Could Rise 25% in 2021, Say Wedbush Analysts<blockquote>Wedbush分析师表示，2021年科技股可能上涨25%</blockquote>

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不怕赶顶，上涨趋势一旦形成就很难改变</b></p><p>今天我的演讲题目是《牛市中赚大钱，最重要的是什么？》，今天这里来了这么多人，每次看到这么多人我就高兴，因为没有你们捧场，中国股市哪来那么多成交量呢！</p><p>有些投资者问我对市场的看法，我依然认为现在是牛市初期。我们是来炒股的，我不能说现在是熊市，说熊市就没人来了。我今年57岁了，即使是人造牛市，我也希望能来一个。但是，说牛市初期是我个人的判断，只是一种对趋势的判断。例如过去10年美股指数持续上行，所以我们认为这个趋势是一个牛市。</p><p>为什么我认为现在是牛市初期呢？因为现在中国股民中有90%的人不挣钱，在这种情况下，认为牛市到达了顶部，我是不赞同的。怎么样是牛市顶部？是当所有人都赚钱了，才到牛市顶部，这属于趋势投资中的常识性概念。但我知道总有一天我会说错，因为顶只有一个，有可能最后说在了顶上。但我今天说牛市，说对的概率还是很大的。</p><p>就像美股市场，很多机构包括海外投资人认为美股积累了太多涨幅，可能处在顶部阶段，对此我还真不赞同。我认为这种上涨趋势一旦形成就很难改变。“趋势”这个东西说重要很重要，说不重要也不重要，对于我们做投资的人来说，我们要关注当下，今天这个位置会不会赶顶？我认为大概率不会。至于一些方向性的错误，例如选错了行业，那么不管什么市场都会失败，这和牛市、熊市没有关系。我说中国股市现在是牛市，只是看指数的高或低，至于下面的每个细分行业，还是要区别对待。</p><p>至于牛市初期会走多久，我不好判断，我只能说现在不是牛市顶部，不要怕现在会赶顶。我们国家正在大力发展新能源、智慧城市、芯片等行业，这些行业光靠喊话是不行的，需要拿出真金白银去支持。这些资金是怎么来的？是泡沫堆出来的，任何行业只有出现泡沫，才有大力发展的可能，所以不要怕出现泡沫，我希望股市出现泡沫。</p><p>至于怎样选择高成长行业？这非常容易，中国现在缺什么？缺高端技术、缺资金，所以我们和欧美国家比那些需要资金推动的产业，例如投资，我们有明显落后的趋势。但按人口基数对比，中国有明显的优势，我们有全球1/4的人口，所以聚焦在“人多”这个优势上做投资就不会出错，这也是为什么我不断强调要找和“嘴巴”相关的公司。在健康、吃饭和消费这方面的投入，穷人和富人的花销差不多，这是刚需，是每个人必须投入的花费。中国人口基数在这摆着呢，抓住这点，就抓住了未来长期趋势的重点。在这点上，我不会说错，中国的14亿人口的医药、饮食和消费是有数据做支撑的，我们在此也做了长期布局。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20201226/124/w554h370/20201226/87f5-kftfpiw5609509.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"370\"></p><p>而对于医药行业，我判断<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600056\">中国医药</a>产业还有30年的大发展，30年后我不知道，而像新能源、5G、AI、智慧城市、人工智能等行业也都是未来的投资方向，但我觉得风险较高，所以不会长期投资，而会通过可转债迂回的参与。</p><p>相比之下，我认为金融、地产板块则存在着一定风险。我认为它们的估值相对较高，因为中国的银行和地产的利润已经做到了全球第一，没有理由再说它们便宜。便宜和贵是一个基本的判断，比较典型的便宜的行业，例如医药，我们国家的医药企业只有国外的百分之一不到，这是估值便宜的一个体现。但金融和地产行业中，这些企业已经把钱挣到了，估值相对来说就不便宜了。</p><p><b>“消费品估值过高”的判断大概率是错的，“下一个茅台”可能就在消费和医疗健康领域</b></p><p>前段时间有个记者采访我说，有一篇研究报告中提到“不为消费品唱赞歌”，作者的意思是消费品目前的股价太高了，对此我的第一反应是，他说错的概率很大，这是在跟全球过去几十年的规律作对。中国有14亿人口，现在消费品公司的这点销售额你都说高了，那我们的消费品公司就无法赶超国外同类公司了。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">雅培</a>公司在过去几十年间，股价上涨了几万倍，只要员工拿得住，现在都是大富翁。相比之下，中国的同类公司市值小太多了。</p><p>如果有哪个愣头青说茅台要跌，我敢说茅台不会。茅台比黄金的投资价值还高，茅台是黄金的爷爷，因为黄金买得到，茅台酒买不到。但还是那句话，顶部只有一个。对我来说，我当初1块钱买的，现在能分3块钱的红利，这是很好的生意，所以我不会卖。在产品还没有生产出来的时候，就有货车在门口等着运走的只有茅台，全球就这一家。</p><p>也有投资人问我，下一个茅台会出现在哪里？我认为，茅台是消费品，消费品有产生大牛股的基因。还有我一直说的和人口有关系的医疗健康领域，一定会出现大牛股。至于短期内，我们会看到很多涨幅超过茅台的公司，但长期能够获胜的不是这些公司。另外，包括人工智能、新能源、5G通讯等行业，它们会改变我们的生活，也会出现大牛股，但就怕投资者抓不住。而从生活中去发现，投资一些和“嘴巴”相关的公司最简单。</p><p>判断企业估值贵不贵要看核心产品，要刨开其他产品的收入，看主营产品的ROE高不高，投资者要火眼金睛的从财报中把企业核心的1-2个产品挑出来，这些核心产品的ROE高才是真正的好公司。</p><p>如果说PE整体升幅大了，确实是风险因素，买入的时候要小心。如果是自己挣的钱，或者已经在市场上挣了很多钱了，对于这样的公司可以闭着眼睛买，出错的概率非常小。但如果是一个新手的话，还是应该相对谨慎，可能会承受不住市场的波动，做出卖出的操作。</p><p>我没有遇到过在PE很贵的时候对看好的企业做布局的情况，因为我不在很热的时候，去投资一个行业。一家企业的PE较高，是因为盈利没有发挥出来，如果盈利发挥出来，PE会随之降低，所以我们要对企业未来的持续盈利能力有一个准确地判断。就像一些核心的消费品龙头企业，市场认为，目前的PE可能较高了，需要几十年才能回本，但这取决于投资者怎么看待，我个人相信企业的大股东，他们在过去几十年中帮企业赚了钱，值得相信。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20201226/124/w554h370/20201226/08f6-kftfpiw5609724.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"370\"></p><p><b>可转债目前价格合适，未来12个月机会不错</b></p><p>明年该干什么，当下该干什么，是我们做投资要研究的重点。做长期投资，我想着20年后发财，但20年时间太慢了。当下我做的是“炒股票”，我是炒家出身，一些热门的行业我都炒。那么炒股的过程中就要研究未来6-12个月的市场规律，我知道未来12个月钱会流向哪里。今天我在埋伏着什么行业呢？我认为未来有可能炒作资金会去的，比如清洁能源、新能源、环保、智能家居、5G通信等行业，这些行业中总有一个是这些炒家会去参与的。</p><p>但炒股是存在风险的，首先是千万别在一些破公司上炒成股东。另外，风险是我们看不到的，我们炒股研究的相对短期的趋势，一家企业未来几年的发展，我可能看不到，但未来几个月甚至1年的好坏我能看到，所以炒股的风险相对较小。那么怎么去操作这些短线的投资呢？这里面是有方法的，不要去炒作正股，在注册制实施后，这类上市公司数量会越来越多，炒作这些股票失败的概率更大，包括我说的那些行业，亏钱的概率比赚钱的概率更大。</p><p>好的方法是我去年在《红周刊》投资峰会上讲到的，大家可以投资可转债，现在各个行业的公司都发了可转债，我们就对各个行业的可转债做了配置，构建了一个可转债组合，其中包含了30只到50只可转债。每年短线资金都会在可转债里面炒作，所以我就在里面等着，只要我提到的行业中的上市公司不是都倒闭了，就有可能收获很高的收益。过去12个月，有几只可转债我已经来回做了4次了，每次都挣30%多。</p><p>按照今天这个价格，可转债是有很好的机会的，对于想布局的投资者来说，要大胆埋伏，不要怕，敢做才是对的，目前投资可转债的风险是非常小的。如果做组合的话，跌到90元就买，甚至在106元以下我认为都是安全的，然后涨到30%就卖出。在座的各位都不是大机构的资金量，这些钱完全可以容下。当然也要筛选一下，选择那些发展前景还不错的公司，例如人工智能、通信行业的公司。</p><p>这个可转债组合里面包含了各个行业，所以一定是行的，所有行业都沦陷的只有2018年，碰到2018年的情况，采用我这个办法也是亏损的，只会亏损的比例比指数少一点。但2021年不会像2018年一样，今天的可转债价格是很合适的。</p><p>而且如果有的可转债一直不赚钱，大不了按照债券来处理；有的时候正股涨了几倍，可转债也会跟着上涨，涨幅不会小于股票。所以投资者如果惧怕风险，投资可转债是一个很好的方法。在资本市场上挣钱要找到诀窍，我就要做一些弯腰捡钱的事，现在就是弯腰捡钱的机会。但长期来看，这不是我们的目标，长远的目标是挣企业长期发展的钱。</p><p><b>先挣百分之十几，赚了钱才会无往而不利</b></p><p>在股市中挣企业发展的钱，最关键的是什么？我认为，如果你是苦命的人，你之前炒股没挣到什么钱，首先要做的是疗伤，不要惧怕股市，你先在短期内把钱挣了，先挣个百分之十几；然后去炒一炒，再遇到个大牛市，挣个几倍也不出奇。投资者在股市上亏钱了，损失的不光是资金，还有斗志，很多人甚至不敢去看股票账户，这就很难享受牛市的上涨。</p><p>我听到一个人亏了钱，我也很头疼，我喜欢那些赚了钱的人，因为他们赚了钱后愿意赌一把，反而越赌越赢。在中国股市中操作，说是赌也对，说是投资也对，这两者之间没有明确的界限。只要我们算清楚风险再去赌，就是获益的机会。所以在投资中，我们的实际方法很简单，就是把风险规避做到极致。疫情最严重的时候，我要求我们公司的“穷人”——就是那些资产在3000万以下的人，都买一个1年期的健康保险，我担心他们在上班的途中或者跑业务的过程中患上新冠肺炎。我很惧怕风险。</p><p>另外，对于手里的股票涨幅不小的投资者来说，想要坚定持股也很难，这是基因的问题。有些人觉得天能塌下来，我们就觉得天塌不下来，这是基因决定的东西，也没什么办法。不过你们要相信老林，我没有说错过。</p><p>现在最重要的是知道自己该干什么。最近，我有个同学，说要离婚，我说你不该现在离婚，你就20多万块钱，离婚了就没有了，也错过了很好的资金上涨的阶段，但他还是离了。如果最开始他听我的话做投资，我做的最好的那几年他都赶上了，所以他对不起老林，他把钱花了。</p><p>我还有一个同学，在1990年的时候生孩子，我当时给他包了一个1000元的红包，我们那天开玩笑说，当年的1000元钱相当于现在给了他1个亿。所以要坚定持有，长期持有，雪球是越滚越大的。但后来我和那个同学说，我说你的人生观是对的，赚的钱就是用来花的，只是这让我们这些喜欢金钱的人有点沮丧。</p><p>今天来说，我希望你们都赚钱，你们今天能够赚到钱我非常高兴。市场有人说我割韭菜，但我说的很多东西都是公开资料，看好和“嘴巴”相关的企业的数据也都是公开的。我希望把我的方法分享给你们，给你们一点启发，再加上你们的勤奋和坚持，再能够克服人性的贪婪，就能获得长期不错的回报。最怕克服不了贪婪，今天早上我遇到一个投资者，他说买我们的基金是为了做配置，我说你现在说好是做配置，就怕最后不做配置，去做别的去了。很多人以为自己能够控制住风险，做到的没有几个人，最终都变成了亏损。所以控制自己的情绪也很重要。</p>","source":"lsy1571701096748","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n林园：\"消费估值过高\"判断是错的，茅台比黄金值得投资\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-27 09:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20201226A0I60500><strong>证券市场红周刊</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点：我们目前处在牛市初期，趋势投资的常识是，当所有人都挣钱了，才是牛市顶部出现的标志。中国的消费品、医药行业内会诞生“下一个茅台”，因为中国有14亿人口基数，但中国的消费品公司的销售额目前远低于海外同类市场。5G通讯、人工智能、新能源等领域也会诞生大牛股，这些是改变我们生活的公司，但是操作起来风险较大，在这些行业内我会控制风险，通过可转债迂回进场。牛市初期 不怕赶顶，上涨趋势一旦形成就很难...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20201226A0I60500\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af47ab6c10e46f0aea6733871f311696","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","600519":"贵州茅台","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20201226A0I60500","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2094251519","content_text":"核心观点：我们目前处在牛市初期，趋势投资的常识是，当所有人都挣钱了，才是牛市顶部出现的标志。中国的消费品、医药行业内会诞生“下一个茅台”，因为中国有14亿人口基数，但中国的消费品公司的销售额目前远低于海外同类市场。5G通讯、人工智能、新能源等领域也会诞生大牛股，这些是改变我们生活的公司，但是操作起来风险较大，在这些行业内我会控制风险，通过可转债迂回进场。牛市初期 不怕赶顶，上涨趋势一旦形成就很难改变今天我的演讲题目是《牛市中赚大钱，最重要的是什么？》，今天这里来了这么多人，每次看到这么多人我就高兴，因为没有你们捧场，中国股市哪来那么多成交量呢！有些投资者问我对市场的看法，我依然认为现在是牛市初期。我们是来炒股的，我不能说现在是熊市，说熊市就没人来了。我今年57岁了，即使是人造牛市，我也希望能来一个。但是，说牛市初期是我个人的判断，只是一种对趋势的判断。例如过去10年美股指数持续上行，所以我们认为这个趋势是一个牛市。为什么我认为现在是牛市初期呢？因为现在中国股民中有90%的人不挣钱，在这种情况下，认为牛市到达了顶部，我是不赞同的。怎么样是牛市顶部？是当所有人都赚钱了，才到牛市顶部，这属于趋势投资中的常识性概念。但我知道总有一天我会说错，因为顶只有一个，有可能最后说在了顶上。但我今天说牛市，说对的概率还是很大的。就像美股市场，很多机构包括海外投资人认为美股积累了太多涨幅，可能处在顶部阶段，对此我还真不赞同。我认为这种上涨趋势一旦形成就很难改变。“趋势”这个东西说重要很重要，说不重要也不重要，对于我们做投资的人来说，我们要关注当下，今天这个位置会不会赶顶？我认为大概率不会。至于一些方向性的错误，例如选错了行业，那么不管什么市场都会失败，这和牛市、熊市没有关系。我说中国股市现在是牛市，只是看指数的高或低，至于下面的每个细分行业，还是要区别对待。至于牛市初期会走多久，我不好判断，我只能说现在不是牛市顶部，不要怕现在会赶顶。我们国家正在大力发展新能源、智慧城市、芯片等行业，这些行业光靠喊话是不行的，需要拿出真金白银去支持。这些资金是怎么来的？是泡沫堆出来的，任何行业只有出现泡沫，才有大力发展的可能，所以不要怕出现泡沫，我希望股市出现泡沫。至于怎样选择高成长行业？这非常容易，中国现在缺什么？缺高端技术、缺资金，所以我们和欧美国家比那些需要资金推动的产业，例如投资，我们有明显落后的趋势。但按人口基数对比，中国有明显的优势，我们有全球1/4的人口，所以聚焦在“人多”这个优势上做投资就不会出错，这也是为什么我不断强调要找和“嘴巴”相关的公司。在健康、吃饭和消费这方面的投入，穷人和富人的花销差不多，这是刚需，是每个人必须投入的花费。中国人口基数在这摆着呢，抓住这点，就抓住了未来长期趋势的重点。在这点上，我不会说错，中国的14亿人口的医药、饮食和消费是有数据做支撑的，我们在此也做了长期布局。而对于医药行业，我判断中国医药产业还有30年的大发展，30年后我不知道，而像新能源、5G、AI、智慧城市、人工智能等行业也都是未来的投资方向，但我觉得风险较高，所以不会长期投资，而会通过可转债迂回的参与。相比之下，我认为金融、地产板块则存在着一定风险。我认为它们的估值相对较高，因为中国的银行和地产的利润已经做到了全球第一，没有理由再说它们便宜。便宜和贵是一个基本的判断，比较典型的便宜的行业，例如医药，我们国家的医药企业只有国外的百分之一不到，这是估值便宜的一个体现。但金融和地产行业中，这些企业已经把钱挣到了，估值相对来说就不便宜了。“消费品估值过高”的判断大概率是错的，“下一个茅台”可能就在消费和医疗健康领域前段时间有个记者采访我说，有一篇研究报告中提到“不为消费品唱赞歌”，作者的意思是消费品目前的股价太高了，对此我的第一反应是，他说错的概率很大，这是在跟全球过去几十年的规律作对。中国有14亿人口，现在消费品公司的这点销售额你都说高了，那我们的消费品公司就无法赶超国外同类公司了。雅培公司在过去几十年间，股价上涨了几万倍，只要员工拿得住，现在都是大富翁。相比之下，中国的同类公司市值小太多了。如果有哪个愣头青说茅台要跌，我敢说茅台不会。茅台比黄金的投资价值还高，茅台是黄金的爷爷，因为黄金买得到，茅台酒买不到。但还是那句话，顶部只有一个。对我来说，我当初1块钱买的，现在能分3块钱的红利，这是很好的生意，所以我不会卖。在产品还没有生产出来的时候，就有货车在门口等着运走的只有茅台，全球就这一家。也有投资人问我，下一个茅台会出现在哪里？我认为，茅台是消费品，消费品有产生大牛股的基因。还有我一直说的和人口有关系的医疗健康领域，一定会出现大牛股。至于短期内，我们会看到很多涨幅超过茅台的公司，但长期能够获胜的不是这些公司。另外，包括人工智能、新能源、5G通讯等行业，它们会改变我们的生活，也会出现大牛股，但就怕投资者抓不住。而从生活中去发现，投资一些和“嘴巴”相关的公司最简单。判断企业估值贵不贵要看核心产品，要刨开其他产品的收入，看主营产品的ROE高不高，投资者要火眼金睛的从财报中把企业核心的1-2个产品挑出来，这些核心产品的ROE高才是真正的好公司。如果说PE整体升幅大了，确实是风险因素，买入的时候要小心。如果是自己挣的钱，或者已经在市场上挣了很多钱了，对于这样的公司可以闭着眼睛买，出错的概率非常小。但如果是一个新手的话，还是应该相对谨慎，可能会承受不住市场的波动，做出卖出的操作。我没有遇到过在PE很贵的时候对看好的企业做布局的情况，因为我不在很热的时候，去投资一个行业。一家企业的PE较高，是因为盈利没有发挥出来，如果盈利发挥出来，PE会随之降低，所以我们要对企业未来的持续盈利能力有一个准确地判断。就像一些核心的消费品龙头企业，市场认为，目前的PE可能较高了，需要几十年才能回本，但这取决于投资者怎么看待，我个人相信企业的大股东，他们在过去几十年中帮企业赚了钱，值得相信。可转债目前价格合适，未来12个月机会不错明年该干什么，当下该干什么，是我们做投资要研究的重点。做长期投资，我想着20年后发财，但20年时间太慢了。当下我做的是“炒股票”，我是炒家出身，一些热门的行业我都炒。那么炒股的过程中就要研究未来6-12个月的市场规律，我知道未来12个月钱会流向哪里。今天我在埋伏着什么行业呢？我认为未来有可能炒作资金会去的，比如清洁能源、新能源、环保、智能家居、5G通信等行业，这些行业中总有一个是这些炒家会去参与的。但炒股是存在风险的，首先是千万别在一些破公司上炒成股东。另外，风险是我们看不到的，我们炒股研究的相对短期的趋势，一家企业未来几年的发展，我可能看不到，但未来几个月甚至1年的好坏我能看到，所以炒股的风险相对较小。那么怎么去操作这些短线的投资呢？这里面是有方法的，不要去炒作正股，在注册制实施后，这类上市公司数量会越来越多，炒作这些股票失败的概率更大，包括我说的那些行业，亏钱的概率比赚钱的概率更大。好的方法是我去年在《红周刊》投资峰会上讲到的，大家可以投资可转债，现在各个行业的公司都发了可转债，我们就对各个行业的可转债做了配置，构建了一个可转债组合，其中包含了30只到50只可转债。每年短线资金都会在可转债里面炒作，所以我就在里面等着，只要我提到的行业中的上市公司不是都倒闭了，就有可能收获很高的收益。过去12个月，有几只可转债我已经来回做了4次了，每次都挣30%多。按照今天这个价格，可转债是有很好的机会的，对于想布局的投资者来说，要大胆埋伏，不要怕，敢做才是对的，目前投资可转债的风险是非常小的。如果做组合的话，跌到90元就买，甚至在106元以下我认为都是安全的，然后涨到30%就卖出。在座的各位都不是大机构的资金量，这些钱完全可以容下。当然也要筛选一下，选择那些发展前景还不错的公司，例如人工智能、通信行业的公司。这个可转债组合里面包含了各个行业，所以一定是行的，所有行业都沦陷的只有2018年，碰到2018年的情况，采用我这个办法也是亏损的，只会亏损的比例比指数少一点。但2021年不会像2018年一样，今天的可转债价格是很合适的。而且如果有的可转债一直不赚钱，大不了按照债券来处理；有的时候正股涨了几倍，可转债也会跟着上涨，涨幅不会小于股票。所以投资者如果惧怕风险，投资可转债是一个很好的方法。在资本市场上挣钱要找到诀窍，我就要做一些弯腰捡钱的事，现在就是弯腰捡钱的机会。但长期来看，这不是我们的目标，长远的目标是挣企业长期发展的钱。先挣百分之十几，赚了钱才会无往而不利在股市中挣企业发展的钱，最关键的是什么？我认为，如果你是苦命的人，你之前炒股没挣到什么钱，首先要做的是疗伤，不要惧怕股市，你先在短期内把钱挣了，先挣个百分之十几；然后去炒一炒，再遇到个大牛市，挣个几倍也不出奇。投资者在股市上亏钱了，损失的不光是资金，还有斗志，很多人甚至不敢去看股票账户，这就很难享受牛市的上涨。我听到一个人亏了钱，我也很头疼，我喜欢那些赚了钱的人，因为他们赚了钱后愿意赌一把，反而越赌越赢。在中国股市中操作，说是赌也对，说是投资也对，这两者之间没有明确的界限。只要我们算清楚风险再去赌，就是获益的机会。所以在投资中，我们的实际方法很简单，就是把风险规避做到极致。疫情最严重的时候，我要求我们公司的“穷人”——就是那些资产在3000万以下的人，都买一个1年期的健康保险，我担心他们在上班的途中或者跑业务的过程中患上新冠肺炎。我很惧怕风险。另外，对于手里的股票涨幅不小的投资者来说，想要坚定持股也很难，这是基因的问题。有些人觉得天能塌下来，我们就觉得天塌不下来，这是基因决定的东西，也没什么办法。不过你们要相信老林，我没有说错过。现在最重要的是知道自己该干什么。最近，我有个同学，说要离婚，我说你不该现在离婚，你就20多万块钱，离婚了就没有了，也错过了很好的资金上涨的阶段，但他还是离了。如果最开始他听我的话做投资，我做的最好的那几年他都赶上了，所以他对不起老林，他把钱花了。我还有一个同学，在1990年的时候生孩子，我当时给他包了一个1000元的红包，我们那天开玩笑说，当年的1000元钱相当于现在给了他1个亿。所以要坚定持有，长期持有，雪球是越滚越大的。但后来我和那个同学说，我说你的人生观是对的，赚的钱就是用来花的，只是这让我们这些喜欢金钱的人有点沮丧。今天来说，我希望你们都赚钱，你们今天能够赚到钱我非常高兴。市场有人说我割韭菜，但我说的很多东西都是公开资料，看好和“嘴巴”相关的企业的数据也都是公开的。我希望把我的方法分享给你们，给你们一点启发，再加上你们的勤奋和坚持，再能够克服人性的贪婪，就能获得长期不错的回报。最怕克服不了贪婪，今天早上我遇到一个投资者，他说买我们的基金是为了做配置，我说你现在说好是做配置，就怕最后不做配置，去做别的去了。很多人以为自己能够控制住风险，做到的没有几个人，最终都变成了亏损。所以控制自己的情绪也很重要。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"600519":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"IAU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":339436252,"gmtCreate":1609002317176,"gmtModify":1703737477777,"author":{"id":"3571957013350377","authorId":"3571957013350377","name":"Ratman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8deb45bfcb9af1dff93123ad083df245","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571957013350377","authorIdStr":"3571957013350377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Follow","listText":"Follow","text":"Follow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339436252","repostId":"1109042067","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":339436127,"gmtCreate":1609001822969,"gmtModify":1703737477084,"author":{"id":"3571957013350377","authorId":"3571957013350377","name":"Ratman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8deb45bfcb9af1dff93123ad083df245","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571957013350377","authorIdStr":"3571957013350377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting ventures","listText":"Interesting ventures","text":"Interesting ventures","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339436127","repostId":"1124510560","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124510560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1608866332,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124510560?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-25 11:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Apple Would Want From the Auto Market?<blockquote>苹果想从汽车市场得到什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124510560","media":"Barrons","summary":"Talk that Apple could launch an autonomous car as soon as 2024 had the market abuzz this past week.\n","content":"<p>Talk that&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;could launch an autonomous car as soon as 2024 had the market abuzz this past week.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，有关苹果最早可能在2024年推出自动驾驶汽车的传言在市场上引起了热议。</blockquote></p><p> The iCar chatter started witha Reuters report, and investors responded by bidding up the market cap of Apple (ticker: AAPL) by about $145 billion from Monday’s low to Tuesday’s close. That’s more than the market values ofFord Motor(F),General Motors(GM), andFiat Chrysler(FCAU) combined. Imagine if Apple had actually announced something.</p><p><blockquote>iCar的讨论始于路透社的一篇报道，投资者的回应是将苹果（股票代码：AAPL）的市值从周一的低点到周二的收盘上涨了约1,450亿美元。这超过了福特汽车(F)、通用汽车(GM)和菲亚特克莱斯勒(FCAU)的市值总和。想象一下，如果苹果真的宣布了一些事情。</blockquote></p><p> Stories about Apple’s ambitions in the automobile market have swirled for at least a decade. “Steve Jobs, if he’d lived, was going to design an iCar,” Mickey Drexler, a former Apple board member,said in a 2014 interviewat the Parsons School of Design in New York. Over the years, there have been reports that Apple has hired hundreds of engineers for what is supposedly known as Project Titan. The Reuters report says that Apple has new battery technology that will provide longer range and lower costs than existing batteries used byTesla(TSLA) and others. Apple isn’t saying anything—it never talks about unannounced products—but I doubt that we will see iCar dealerships anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>关于苹果在汽车市场野心的故事已经流传了至少十年。“如果史蒂夫·乔布斯还活着，他一定会设计iCar，”苹果前董事会成员米基·德雷克斯勒(Mickey Drexler)2014年在纽约帕森斯设计学院接受采访时表示。多年来，有报道称苹果为所谓的泰坦计划雇佣了数百名工程师。路透社报道称，苹果拥有新的电池技术，与特斯拉（TSLA）和其他公司使用的现有电池相比，该技术将提供更长的续航里程和更低的成本。苹果什么也没说——它从不谈论未公布的产品——但我怀疑我们会很快看到iCar经销商。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, the appeal of this idea is obvious. Apple’s sales are enormous—Wall Street expects $330 billion in the September 2022 fiscal year. To drive meaningful growth, it must aim at large markets. And as my colleague Al Root has calculated,the world’s 26 largest auto makers last year had sales of more than $2 trillion combined.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，这个想法的吸引力是显而易见的。苹果的销售额巨大——华尔街预计2022年9月财年的销售额将达到3300亿美元。为了推动有意义的增长，它必须瞄准大型市场。正如我的同事Al Root计算的那样，去年全球26家最大的汽车制造商的总销售额超过2万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But I find the notion of Apple becoming a full-fledged car company far-fetched. Sure, Apple has long been nibbling around the edges of the auto market with its CarPlay service for in-cabin entertainment and maps. Yet Apple’s expertise is in design, engineering, logistics, and marketing. It doesn’t manufacture anything, relying on contractors to make phones, Macs, and other wares. As Citigroup analyst Jim Suva notes, making cars would compress Apple’s margins, making it an unlikely strategy.</p><p><blockquote>但我发现苹果成为一家成熟汽车公司的想法有些牵强。当然，苹果长期以来一直通过其用于车内娱乐和地图的CarPlay服务蚕食汽车市场的边缘。然而，苹果的专长是设计、工程、物流和营销。它不生产任何东西，依靠承包商制造手机、苹果电脑和其他商品。正如花旗集团分析师Jim Suva指出的那样，制造汽车会压缩苹果的利润率，使其成为一项不太可能的战略。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, Apple is not just going to ignore a $2 trillion market. Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas wrote last week that he and his tech analyst colleagues have long thought that Apple would one day design and engineer a car.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，苹果不会忽视2万亿美元的市场。Morgan Stanley汽车分析师Adam Jonas上周写道，他和他的科技分析师同事长期以来一直认为苹果有一天会设计和制造汽车。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s not that we believe Apple wants to get into the auto industry as conceived by today’s auto companies, but that Apple may have an interest in enhancing the driving experience with vertical integration of hardware, software, and services,” he said in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中表示：“我们并不认为苹果想要像当今汽车公司所设想的那样进入汽车行业，而是苹果可能有兴趣通过硬件、软件和服务的垂直整合来增强驾驶体验。”笔记。</blockquote></p><p> Jonas thinks that the value of services in the “internet of cars”—multiply monthly active users (drivers) by average revenue per driver—could dwarf sales from simply selling cars. “The world’s 1.2 billion light vehicles travel in excess of 10 trillion miles per year, and humanity spends over 600 billion hours of time inside automobiles annually...the equivalent of 68 million years,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>乔纳斯认为，“车联网”中的服务价值——每月活跃用户（司机）乘以每个司机的平均收入——可能会让单纯销售汽车的销售额相形见绌。“世界上12亿辆轻型汽车每年行驶超过10万亿英里，人类每年在汽车内度过的时间超过6000亿小时……相当于6800万年，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Now, imagine those were autonomous cars. That would free up a lot of consumer time to watch Apple TV+, listen to Apple Music, read Apple News, and play in Apple Arcade on iPhones, iPads, or MacBooks.</p><p><blockquote>现在，想象一下那些是自动驾驶汽车。这将为消费者腾出大量时间观看苹果TV+、听苹果音乐、阅读苹果新闻频道以及在iPhones、iPads或MacBooks上玩苹果街机游戏。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla CEO Elon Musk entered the iCar discussion on Tuesday.In a tweet, he said that during a difficult moment for his company, he reached out to Apple CEO Tim Cook to discuss selling Tesla to Apple for a 10th of the recent price (let’s call it $60 billion). Cook “refused to take the meeting,” Musk wrote.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉CEO Elon Musk周二加入了iCar讨论。他在一条推文中表示，在他的公司处于困难时刻，他联系了苹果首席执行官Tim Cook，讨论以最近价格的十分之一（苹果600亿美元）将特斯拉出售给看涨期权。马斯克写道，库克“拒绝参加会议”。</blockquote></p><p> Whether an Apple/Tesla combination would have worked, we’ll never know.</p><p><blockquote>苹果/特斯拉的组合是否可行，我们永远不会知道。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s get small: The huge 2002 tech rally has stripped the landscape clean of obvious bargains. (Though I think I found one inYelp[YELP]; see“Yelp Stock Deserves a Positive Review. Expect a Reopening Rebound.”.) In search of cheap merchandise, I chatted recently with Jeffrey Meyers, proprietor of Cobia Capital, a New York–based hedge fund. His preference is for unloved and unknown tech companies with market caps under $3 billion that trade at modest multiples. Here are two examples.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从小处着眼：2002年科技股的巨大反弹已经清除了明显的便宜货。（虽然我想我在Yelp[Yelp]上找到了一个；参见“Yelp股票值得积极评价。期待重新开放的反弹。”。）为了寻找廉价商品，我最近与纽约对冲基金Cobia Capital的所有者杰弗里·迈耶斯（Jeffrey Meyers）聊了聊。他更喜欢市值低于30亿美元、市盈率适中的不受欢迎和不知名的科技公司。这里有两个例子。</blockquote></p><p> Meyers is keen onAirGain(AIRG), which makes antennae for fixed and mobile wireless applications. He’s especially jazzed about the prospects for a new AirGain antenna for first-responder vehicles that allows them greater range so radio signals can penetrate farther into buildings. AirGain is up about 40% this year, but he sees higher highs. Now trading for about $15, it could be a $75 stock a few years from now, he thinks.</p><p><blockquote>迈耶斯热衷于AirGain(AIRG)，该公司为固定和移动无线应用生产天线。他对用于急救车辆的新型AirGain天线的前景特别兴奋，这种天线可以使它们具有更大的范围，以便无线电信号可以穿透更远的建筑物。AirGain今年上涨了约40%，但他预计会有更高的高点。他认为，现在的交易价格约为15美元，几年后可能会成为75美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> He is also enthusiastic aboutNordic Semiconductor(NOD.Norway), a Norwegian company that makes Bluetooth chips for things other than smartphones: headsets, keyboards, mice, and other applications. Meyers notes that the chips are found, for instance, in Tile tracking devices, which can be attached to almost anything that you wouldn’t want to lose—your dog, say, or your keys. Apple is rumored to be working on a similar product, which he thinks also could include Nordic’s chips.</p><p><blockquote>他还对Nordic Semiconductor(NOD.Norway)充满热情，这是一家挪威公司，为智能手机以外的产品生产蓝牙芯片：耳机、键盘、鼠标和其他应用。迈耶斯指出，例如，这些芯片可以在瓷砖跟踪设备中找到，这些设备可以连接到几乎任何你不想丢失的东西上——比如你的狗或你的钥匙。据传苹果正在开发类似的产品，他认为该产品也可能包括Nordic的芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nordic shares aren’t as cheap as those of other Meyers picks, but the company is seeing accelerating growth—revenue was up 45%, year over year, in the September quarter and 34% sequentially—in a growing niche. Nordic, meanwhile, is gaining some early traction in chips used in cellular-based Internet of Things applications.</p><p><blockquote>Nordic的股票并不像Meyers精选的其他股票那么便宜，但该公司正在加速增长——9月份季度的收入同比增长45%，环比增长34%——在一个不断增长的利基市场。与此同时，Nordic在用于基于蜂窝的物联网应用的芯片方面获得了一些早期关注。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is looking for…well, there aren’t any U.S. analysts. Just the kind of stock Meyers loves. Nordic could be acquisition bait for many potential buyers, he says, as the chip sector continues to consolidate.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街正在寻找……嗯，没有任何美国分析师。正是迈耶斯喜欢的那种股票。他表示，随着芯片行业的持续整合，Nordic可能成为许多潜在买家的收购诱饵。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Apple Would Want From the Auto Market?<blockquote>苹果想从汽车市场得到什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Apple Would Want From the Auto Market?<blockquote>苹果想从汽车市场得到什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-12-25 11:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Talk that&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;could launch an autonomous car as soon as 2024 had the market abuzz this past week.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，有关苹果最早可能在2024年推出自动驾驶汽车的传言在市场上引起了热议。</blockquote></p><p> The iCar chatter started witha Reuters report, and investors responded by bidding up the market cap of Apple (ticker: AAPL) by about $145 billion from Monday’s low to Tuesday’s close. That’s more than the market values ofFord Motor(F),General Motors(GM), andFiat Chrysler(FCAU) combined. Imagine if Apple had actually announced something.</p><p><blockquote>iCar的讨论始于路透社的一篇报道，投资者的回应是将苹果（股票代码：AAPL）的市值从周一的低点到周二的收盘上涨了约1,450亿美元。这超过了福特汽车(F)、通用汽车(GM)和菲亚特克莱斯勒(FCAU)的市值总和。想象一下，如果苹果真的宣布了一些事情。</blockquote></p><p> Stories about Apple’s ambitions in the automobile market have swirled for at least a decade. “Steve Jobs, if he’d lived, was going to design an iCar,” Mickey Drexler, a former Apple board member,said in a 2014 interviewat the Parsons School of Design in New York. Over the years, there have been reports that Apple has hired hundreds of engineers for what is supposedly known as Project Titan. The Reuters report says that Apple has new battery technology that will provide longer range and lower costs than existing batteries used byTesla(TSLA) and others. Apple isn’t saying anything—it never talks about unannounced products—but I doubt that we will see iCar dealerships anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>关于苹果在汽车市场野心的故事已经流传了至少十年。“如果史蒂夫·乔布斯还活着，他一定会设计iCar，”苹果前董事会成员米基·德雷克斯勒(Mickey Drexler)2014年在纽约帕森斯设计学院接受采访时表示。多年来，有报道称苹果为所谓的泰坦计划雇佣了数百名工程师。路透社报道称，苹果拥有新的电池技术，与特斯拉（TSLA）和其他公司使用的现有电池相比，该技术将提供更长的续航里程和更低的成本。苹果什么也没说——它从不谈论未公布的产品——但我怀疑我们会很快看到iCar经销商。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, the appeal of this idea is obvious. Apple’s sales are enormous—Wall Street expects $330 billion in the September 2022 fiscal year. To drive meaningful growth, it must aim at large markets. And as my colleague Al Root has calculated,the world’s 26 largest auto makers last year had sales of more than $2 trillion combined.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，这个想法的吸引力是显而易见的。苹果的销售额巨大——华尔街预计2022年9月财年的销售额将达到3300亿美元。为了推动有意义的增长，它必须瞄准大型市场。正如我的同事Al Root计算的那样，去年全球26家最大的汽车制造商的总销售额超过2万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But I find the notion of Apple becoming a full-fledged car company far-fetched. Sure, Apple has long been nibbling around the edges of the auto market with its CarPlay service for in-cabin entertainment and maps. Yet Apple’s expertise is in design, engineering, logistics, and marketing. It doesn’t manufacture anything, relying on contractors to make phones, Macs, and other wares. As Citigroup analyst Jim Suva notes, making cars would compress Apple’s margins, making it an unlikely strategy.</p><p><blockquote>但我发现苹果成为一家成熟汽车公司的想法有些牵强。当然，苹果长期以来一直通过其用于车内娱乐和地图的CarPlay服务蚕食汽车市场的边缘。然而，苹果的专长是设计、工程、物流和营销。它不生产任何东西，依靠承包商制造手机、苹果电脑和其他商品。正如花旗集团分析师Jim Suva指出的那样，制造汽车会压缩苹果的利润率，使其成为一项不太可能的战略。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, Apple is not just going to ignore a $2 trillion market. Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas wrote last week that he and his tech analyst colleagues have long thought that Apple would one day design and engineer a car.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，苹果不会忽视2万亿美元的市场。Morgan Stanley汽车分析师Adam Jonas上周写道，他和他的科技分析师同事长期以来一直认为苹果有一天会设计和制造汽车。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s not that we believe Apple wants to get into the auto industry as conceived by today’s auto companies, but that Apple may have an interest in enhancing the driving experience with vertical integration of hardware, software, and services,” he said in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中表示：“我们并不认为苹果想要像当今汽车公司所设想的那样进入汽车行业，而是苹果可能有兴趣通过硬件、软件和服务的垂直整合来增强驾驶体验。”笔记。</blockquote></p><p> Jonas thinks that the value of services in the “internet of cars”—multiply monthly active users (drivers) by average revenue per driver—could dwarf sales from simply selling cars. “The world’s 1.2 billion light vehicles travel in excess of 10 trillion miles per year, and humanity spends over 600 billion hours of time inside automobiles annually...the equivalent of 68 million years,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>乔纳斯认为，“车联网”中的服务价值——每月活跃用户（司机）乘以每个司机的平均收入——可能会让单纯销售汽车的销售额相形见绌。“世界上12亿辆轻型汽车每年行驶超过10万亿英里，人类每年在汽车内度过的时间超过6000亿小时……相当于6800万年，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Now, imagine those were autonomous cars. That would free up a lot of consumer time to watch Apple TV+, listen to Apple Music, read Apple News, and play in Apple Arcade on iPhones, iPads, or MacBooks.</p><p><blockquote>现在，想象一下那些是自动驾驶汽车。这将为消费者腾出大量时间观看苹果TV+、听苹果音乐、阅读苹果新闻频道以及在iPhones、iPads或MacBooks上玩苹果街机游戏。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla CEO Elon Musk entered the iCar discussion on Tuesday.In a tweet, he said that during a difficult moment for his company, he reached out to Apple CEO Tim Cook to discuss selling Tesla to Apple for a 10th of the recent price (let’s call it $60 billion). Cook “refused to take the meeting,” Musk wrote.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉CEO Elon Musk周二加入了iCar讨论。他在一条推文中表示，在他的公司处于困难时刻，他联系了苹果首席执行官Tim Cook，讨论以最近价格的十分之一（苹果600亿美元）将特斯拉出售给看涨期权。马斯克写道，库克“拒绝参加会议”。</blockquote></p><p> Whether an Apple/Tesla combination would have worked, we’ll never know.</p><p><blockquote>苹果/特斯拉的组合是否可行，我们永远不会知道。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s get small: The huge 2002 tech rally has stripped the landscape clean of obvious bargains. (Though I think I found one inYelp[YELP]; see“Yelp Stock Deserves a Positive Review. Expect a Reopening Rebound.”.) In search of cheap merchandise, I chatted recently with Jeffrey Meyers, proprietor of Cobia Capital, a New York–based hedge fund. His preference is for unloved and unknown tech companies with market caps under $3 billion that trade at modest multiples. Here are two examples.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从小处着眼：2002年科技股的巨大反弹已经清除了明显的便宜货。（虽然我想我在Yelp[Yelp]上找到了一个；参见“Yelp股票值得积极评价。期待重新开放的反弹。”。）为了寻找廉价商品，我最近与纽约对冲基金Cobia Capital的所有者杰弗里·迈耶斯（Jeffrey Meyers）聊了聊。他更喜欢市值低于30亿美元、市盈率适中的不受欢迎和不知名的科技公司。这里有两个例子。</blockquote></p><p> Meyers is keen onAirGain(AIRG), which makes antennae for fixed and mobile wireless applications. He’s especially jazzed about the prospects for a new AirGain antenna for first-responder vehicles that allows them greater range so radio signals can penetrate farther into buildings. AirGain is up about 40% this year, but he sees higher highs. Now trading for about $15, it could be a $75 stock a few years from now, he thinks.</p><p><blockquote>迈耶斯热衷于AirGain(AIRG)，该公司为固定和移动无线应用生产天线。他对用于急救车辆的新型AirGain天线的前景特别兴奋，这种天线可以使它们具有更大的范围，以便无线电信号可以穿透更远的建筑物。AirGain今年上涨了约40%，但他预计会有更高的高点。他认为，现在的交易价格约为15美元，几年后可能会成为75美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> He is also enthusiastic aboutNordic Semiconductor(NOD.Norway), a Norwegian company that makes Bluetooth chips for things other than smartphones: headsets, keyboards, mice, and other applications. Meyers notes that the chips are found, for instance, in Tile tracking devices, which can be attached to almost anything that you wouldn’t want to lose—your dog, say, or your keys. Apple is rumored to be working on a similar product, which he thinks also could include Nordic’s chips.</p><p><blockquote>他还对Nordic Semiconductor(NOD.Norway)充满热情，这是一家挪威公司，为智能手机以外的产品生产蓝牙芯片：耳机、键盘、鼠标和其他应用。迈耶斯指出，例如，这些芯片可以在瓷砖跟踪设备中找到，这些设备可以连接到几乎任何你不想丢失的东西上——比如你的狗或你的钥匙。据传苹果正在开发类似的产品，他认为该产品也可能包括Nordic的芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nordic shares aren’t as cheap as those of other Meyers picks, but the company is seeing accelerating growth—revenue was up 45%, year over year, in the September quarter and 34% sequentially—in a growing niche. Nordic, meanwhile, is gaining some early traction in chips used in cellular-based Internet of Things applications.</p><p><blockquote>Nordic的股票并不像Meyers精选的其他股票那么便宜，但该公司正在加速增长——9月份季度的收入同比增长45%，环比增长34%——在一个不断增长的利基市场。与此同时，Nordic在用于基于蜂窝的物联网应用的芯片方面获得了一些早期关注。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is looking for…well, there aren’t any U.S. analysts. Just the kind of stock Meyers loves. Nordic could be acquisition bait for many potential buyers, he says, as the chip sector continues to consolidate.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街正在寻找……嗯，没有任何美国分析师。正是迈耶斯喜欢的那种股票。他表示，随着芯片行业的持续整合，Nordic可能成为许多潜在买家的收购诱饵。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-apple-would-want-from-the-auto-market-its-not-about-making-cars-51608831016?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-apple-would-want-from-the-auto-market-its-not-about-making-cars-51608831016?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124510560","content_text":"Talk that Apple could launch an autonomous car as soon as 2024 had the market abuzz this past week.\nThe iCar chatter started witha Reuters report, and investors responded by bidding up the market cap of Apple (ticker: AAPL) by about $145 billion from Monday’s low to Tuesday’s close. That’s more than the market values ofFord Motor(F),General Motors(GM), andFiat Chrysler(FCAU) combined. Imagine if Apple had actually announced something.\nStories about Apple’s ambitions in the automobile market have swirled for at least a decade. “Steve Jobs, if he’d lived, was going to design an iCar,” Mickey Drexler, a former Apple board member,said in a 2014 interviewat the Parsons School of Design in New York. Over the years, there have been reports that Apple has hired hundreds of engineers for what is supposedly known as Project Titan. The Reuters report says that Apple has new battery technology that will provide longer range and lower costs than existing batteries used byTesla(TSLA) and others. Apple isn’t saying anything—it never talks about unannounced products—but I doubt that we will see iCar dealerships anytime soon.\nTo be clear, the appeal of this idea is obvious. Apple’s sales are enormous—Wall Street expects $330 billion in the September 2022 fiscal year. To drive meaningful growth, it must aim at large markets. And as my colleague Al Root has calculated,the world’s 26 largest auto makers last year had sales of more than $2 trillion combined.\nBut I find the notion of Apple becoming a full-fledged car company far-fetched. Sure, Apple has long been nibbling around the edges of the auto market with its CarPlay service for in-cabin entertainment and maps. Yet Apple’s expertise is in design, engineering, logistics, and marketing. It doesn’t manufacture anything, relying on contractors to make phones, Macs, and other wares. As Citigroup analyst Jim Suva notes, making cars would compress Apple’s margins, making it an unlikely strategy.\nAt the same time, Apple is not just going to ignore a $2 trillion market. Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas wrote last week that he and his tech analyst colleagues have long thought that Apple would one day design and engineer a car.\n“It’s not that we believe Apple wants to get into the auto industry as conceived by today’s auto companies, but that Apple may have an interest in enhancing the driving experience with vertical integration of hardware, software, and services,” he said in a research note.\nJonas thinks that the value of services in the “internet of cars”—multiply monthly active users (drivers) by average revenue per driver—could dwarf sales from simply selling cars. “The world’s 1.2 billion light vehicles travel in excess of 10 trillion miles per year, and humanity spends over 600 billion hours of time inside automobiles annually...the equivalent of 68 million years,” he said.\nNow, imagine those were autonomous cars. That would free up a lot of consumer time to watch Apple TV+, listen to Apple Music, read Apple News, and play in Apple Arcade on iPhones, iPads, or MacBooks.\nTesla CEO Elon Musk entered the iCar discussion on Tuesday.In a tweet, he said that during a difficult moment for his company, he reached out to Apple CEO Tim Cook to discuss selling Tesla to Apple for a 10th of the recent price (let’s call it $60 billion). Cook “refused to take the meeting,” Musk wrote.\nWhether an Apple/Tesla combination would have worked, we’ll never know.\nLet’s get small: The huge 2002 tech rally has stripped the landscape clean of obvious bargains. (Though I think I found one inYelp[YELP]; see“Yelp Stock Deserves a Positive Review. Expect a Reopening Rebound.”.) In search of cheap merchandise, I chatted recently with Jeffrey Meyers, proprietor of Cobia Capital, a New York–based hedge fund. His preference is for unloved and unknown tech companies with market caps under $3 billion that trade at modest multiples. Here are two examples.\nMeyers is keen onAirGain(AIRG), which makes antennae for fixed and mobile wireless applications. He’s especially jazzed about the prospects for a new AirGain antenna for first-responder vehicles that allows them greater range so radio signals can penetrate farther into buildings. AirGain is up about 40% this year, but he sees higher highs. Now trading for about $15, it could be a $75 stock a few years from now, he thinks.\nHe is also enthusiastic aboutNordic Semiconductor(NOD.Norway), a Norwegian company that makes Bluetooth chips for things other than smartphones: headsets, keyboards, mice, and other applications. Meyers notes that the chips are found, for instance, in Tile tracking devices, which can be attached to almost anything that you wouldn’t want to lose—your dog, say, or your keys. Apple is rumored to be working on a similar product, which he thinks also could include Nordic’s chips.\nNordic shares aren’t as cheap as those of other Meyers picks, but the company is seeing accelerating growth—revenue was up 45%, year over year, in the September quarter and 34% sequentially—in a growing niche. Nordic, meanwhile, is gaining some early traction in chips used in cellular-based Internet of Things applications.\nWall Street is looking for…well, there aren’t any U.S. analysts. Just the kind of stock Meyers loves. Nordic could be acquisition bait for many potential buyers, he says, as the chip sector continues to consolidate.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":339436904,"gmtCreate":1609001737508,"gmtModify":1703737476567,"author":{"id":"3571957013350377","authorId":"3571957013350377","name":"Ratman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8deb45bfcb9af1dff93123ad083df245","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571957013350377","authorIdStr":"3571957013350377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Electric car is the future","listText":"Electric car is the future","text":"Electric car is the future","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339436904","repostId":"1142277800","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1077,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":339438250,"gmtCreate":1609001479370,"gmtModify":1703737476050,"author":{"id":"3571957013350377","authorId":"3571957013350377","name":"Ratman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8deb45bfcb9af1dff93123ad083df245","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571957013350377","authorIdStr":"3571957013350377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yup","listText":"Yup","text":"Yup","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339438250","repostId":"1185532673","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185532673","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1608886161,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185532673?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-25 16:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tech Stocks Could Rise 25% in 2021, Say Wedbush Analysts<blockquote>Wedbush分析师表示，2021年科技股可能上涨25%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185532673","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Wedbush names five stocks that could benefit the most as the economy reopens.Next year could be anot","content":"<p>Wedbush names five stocks that could benefit the most as the economy reopens.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什列出了随着经济重新开放可能受益最大的五只股票。</blockquote></p><p>Next year could be another strong year for tech stocks as the economy starts to grow again with the distribution of a COVID vaccine, according to analysts Daniel Ives and Strecker Backe at Wedbush.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯(Daniel Ives)和斯特雷克·贝克(Strecker Backe)表示，随着新冠疫苗的分发，经济开始再次增长，明年可能是科技股又一个强劲的一年。</blockquote></p><p>While they acknowledge that some tech stocks have already become highly valued -- indeed, the number of downgrades of tech stocks on valuation concerns hasrisen dramaticallyin recent weeks -- the two view this as a “re-rating paradigm” as tech investors hunt for growth.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们承认一些科技股的估值已经很高——事实上，最近几周因估值担忧而下调科技股评级的数量急剧增加——但两人认为，随着科技投资者寻求增长，这是一种“重新评级范式”。</blockquote></p><p>With a vaccine rolling out and some form of normalization expected to return by the spring or summer, the two are most positive on Uber&nbsp;(<b>UBER</b>), Lyft&nbsp;(<b>LYFT</b>), Tesla&nbsp;(<b>TSLA</b>) , Cerence&nbsp;(<b>CRNC</b>) and Nuance&nbsp;(<b>NUAN</b>) , the latter based on the potential for larger health-care deals occurring.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫苗的推出以及某种形式的正常化预计将在春季或夏季恢复，两者对Uber的看法最为积极（<b>优步</b>)、Lyft(<b>LYFT</b>)、特斯拉(<b>特斯拉</b>)、塞伦斯(<b>CRNC</b>）和细微差别（<b>暖</b>），后者基于更大的医疗保健交易发生的可能性。</blockquote></p><p>The two have been bullish on tech stocks since March, arguing that a first phase favored cloud/consumer services such as Apple&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>), Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>), Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) &nbsp;and Disney&nbsp;(<b>DIS</b>) ; cybersecurity plays such as Zcaler&nbsp;(<b>ZS</b>), Crowdstrike&nbsp;(<b>CRWD</b>)&nbsp;and Okta&nbsp;(<b>OKTA</b>), and working-from-home stocks such as Zoom Video&nbsp;(<b>ZM</b>), Docusign&nbsp;(<b>DOCU</b>) and Slack&nbsp;(<b>WORK</b>).</p><p><blockquote>自3月份以来，两人一直看好科技股，认为第一阶段有利于苹果等云/消费服务（<b>AAPL</b>)、亚马逊(<b>AMZN</b>）、Netflix（<b>NFLX</b>）和迪士尼（<b>说</b>);Zcaler等网络安全游戏（<b>ZS</b>)、Crowdstrike(<b>CRWD</b>）和Okta（<b>奥克塔</b>），以及Zoom Video等在家工作股票（<b>ZM</b>)、Docusign(<b>多库</b>）和松弛（<b>工作</b>).</blockquote></p><p>Now they say we’re entering a second phase as the economic rebound supports the “fundamental and growth trajectories of well-positioned tech stocks.”</p><p><blockquote>现在他们表示，随着经济反弹支持“定位良好的科技股的基本面和增长轨迹”，我们正在进入第二阶段。</blockquote></p><p>That points to favoring working-from-home stocks, FAANG names and cloud stocks for at least the next six to 12 months, they say, with a fundamental growth driver remaining especially strong around cloud and cybersecurity names as a result of the massive SolarWinds&nbsp;(<b>SWI</b>)&nbsp;hack.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，这表明至少在未来6到12个月内，在家工作股票、FAANG名称和云股票将受到青睐，由于大规模SolarWinds（<b>SWI</b>）黑客。</blockquote></p><p>Roughly 35% of workloads are now on the cloud but that number is projected to hit 55% by 2022, according to Ives and Backe.</p><p><blockquote>Ives和Backe表示，目前大约35%的工作负载位于云上，但预计到2022年这一数字将达到55%。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, the strongest tech plays on an economic recovery are likely to be Uber and Lyft as a return to the office and travel in 2021 should improve both their businesses dramatically and result in these stocks moving much higher in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>最后，经济复苏中最强劲的科技股可能是优步和Lyft，因为2021年重返办公室和旅行应该会显着改善他们的业务，并导致这些股票在2021年大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTech Stocks Could Rise 25% in 2021, Say Wedbush Analysts<blockquote>Wedbush分析师表示，2021年科技股可能上涨25%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-12-25 16:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Wedbush names five stocks that could benefit the most as the economy reopens.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什列出了随着经济重新开放可能受益最大的五只股票。</blockquote></p><p>Next year could be another strong year for tech stocks as the economy starts to grow again with the distribution of a COVID vaccine, according to analysts Daniel Ives and Strecker Backe at Wedbush.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯(Daniel Ives)和斯特雷克·贝克(Strecker Backe)表示，随着新冠疫苗的分发，经济开始再次增长，明年可能是科技股又一个强劲的一年。</blockquote></p><p>While they acknowledge that some tech stocks have already become highly valued -- indeed, the number of downgrades of tech stocks on valuation concerns hasrisen dramaticallyin recent weeks -- the two view this as a “re-rating paradigm” as tech investors hunt for growth.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们承认一些科技股的估值已经很高——事实上，最近几周因估值担忧而下调科技股评级的数量急剧增加——但两人认为，随着科技投资者寻求增长，这是一种“重新评级范式”。</blockquote></p><p>With a vaccine rolling out and some form of normalization expected to return by the spring or summer, the two are most positive on Uber&nbsp;(<b>UBER</b>), Lyft&nbsp;(<b>LYFT</b>), Tesla&nbsp;(<b>TSLA</b>) , Cerence&nbsp;(<b>CRNC</b>) and Nuance&nbsp;(<b>NUAN</b>) , the latter based on the potential for larger health-care deals occurring.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫苗的推出以及某种形式的正常化预计将在春季或夏季恢复，两者对Uber的看法最为积极（<b>优步</b>)、Lyft(<b>LYFT</b>)、特斯拉(<b>特斯拉</b>)、塞伦斯(<b>CRNC</b>）和细微差别（<b>暖</b>），后者基于更大的医疗保健交易发生的可能性。</blockquote></p><p>The two have been bullish on tech stocks since March, arguing that a first phase favored cloud/consumer services such as Apple&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>), Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>), Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) &nbsp;and Disney&nbsp;(<b>DIS</b>) ; cybersecurity plays such as Zcaler&nbsp;(<b>ZS</b>), Crowdstrike&nbsp;(<b>CRWD</b>)&nbsp;and Okta&nbsp;(<b>OKTA</b>), and working-from-home stocks such as Zoom Video&nbsp;(<b>ZM</b>), Docusign&nbsp;(<b>DOCU</b>) and Slack&nbsp;(<b>WORK</b>).</p><p><blockquote>自3月份以来，两人一直看好科技股，认为第一阶段有利于苹果等云/消费服务（<b>AAPL</b>)、亚马逊(<b>AMZN</b>）、Netflix（<b>NFLX</b>）和迪士尼（<b>说</b>);Zcaler等网络安全游戏（<b>ZS</b>)、Crowdstrike(<b>CRWD</b>）和Okta（<b>奥克塔</b>），以及Zoom Video等在家工作股票（<b>ZM</b>)、Docusign(<b>多库</b>）和松弛（<b>工作</b>).</blockquote></p><p>Now they say we’re entering a second phase as the economic rebound supports the “fundamental and growth trajectories of well-positioned tech stocks.”</p><p><blockquote>现在他们表示，随着经济反弹支持“定位良好的科技股的基本面和增长轨迹”，我们正在进入第二阶段。</blockquote></p><p>That points to favoring working-from-home stocks, FAANG names and cloud stocks for at least the next six to 12 months, they say, with a fundamental growth driver remaining especially strong around cloud and cybersecurity names as a result of the massive SolarWinds&nbsp;(<b>SWI</b>)&nbsp;hack.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，这表明至少在未来6到12个月内，在家工作股票、FAANG名称和云股票将受到青睐，由于大规模SolarWinds（<b>SWI</b>）黑客。</blockquote></p><p>Roughly 35% of workloads are now on the cloud but that number is projected to hit 55% by 2022, according to Ives and Backe.</p><p><blockquote>Ives和Backe表示，目前大约35%的工作负载位于云上，但预计到2022年这一数字将达到55%。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, the strongest tech plays on an economic recovery are likely to be Uber and Lyft as a return to the office and travel in 2021 should improve both their businesses dramatically and result in these stocks moving much higher in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>最后，经济复苏中最强劲的科技股可能是优步和Lyft，因为2021年重返办公室和旅行应该会显着改善他们的业务，并导致这些股票在2021年大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/tech-stocks-could-rise-25-percent-in-2021-wedbush\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UBER":"优步",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TSLA":"特斯拉","AMZN":"亚马逊","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/tech-stocks-could-rise-25-percent-in-2021-wedbush","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185532673","content_text":"Wedbush names five stocks that could benefit the most as the economy reopens.Next year could be another strong year for tech stocks as the economy starts to grow again with the distribution of a COVID vaccine, according to analysts Daniel Ives and Strecker Backe at Wedbush.While they acknowledge that some tech stocks have already become highly valued -- indeed, the number of downgrades of tech stocks on valuation concerns hasrisen dramaticallyin recent weeks -- the two view this as a “re-rating paradigm” as tech investors hunt for growth.With a vaccine rolling out and some form of normalization expected to return by the spring or summer, the two are most positive on Uber (UBER), Lyft (LYFT), Tesla (TSLA) , Cerence (CRNC) and Nuance (NUAN) , the latter based on the potential for larger health-care deals occurring.The two have been bullish on tech stocks since March, arguing that a first phase favored cloud/consumer services such as Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX)  and Disney (DIS) ; cybersecurity plays such as Zcaler (ZS), Crowdstrike (CRWD) and Okta (OKTA), and working-from-home stocks such as Zoom Video (ZM), Docusign (DOCU) and Slack (WORK).Now they say we’re entering a second phase as the economic rebound supports the “fundamental and growth trajectories of well-positioned tech stocks.”That points to favoring working-from-home stocks, FAANG names and cloud stocks for at least the next six to 12 months, they say, with a fundamental growth driver remaining especially strong around cloud and cybersecurity names as a result of the massive SolarWinds (SWI) hack.Roughly 35% of workloads are now on the cloud but that number is projected to hit 55% by 2022, according to Ives and Backe.Finally, the strongest tech plays on an economic recovery are likely to be Uber and Lyft as a return to the office and travel in 2021 should improve both their businesses dramatically and result in these stocks moving much higher in 2021.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UBER":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":339422859,"gmtCreate":1609041984271,"gmtModify":1703737531085,"author":{"id":"3571957013350377","authorId":"3571957013350377","name":"Ratman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8deb45bfcb9af1dff93123ad083df245","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571957013350377","authorIdStr":"3571957013350377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Nice sharing&nbsp;","text":"Nice sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339422859","repostId":"2094251519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2094251519","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1609034100,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2094251519?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-27 09:55","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"林园：\"消费估值过高\"判断是错的，茅台比黄金值得投资","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2094251519","media":"证券市场红周刊","summary":"中国的消费品、医药行业内会诞生“下一个茅台”，因为中国有14亿人口基数，但中国的消费品公司的销售额目前远低于海外同类市场。5G通讯、人工智能、新能源等领域也会诞生大牛股，这些是改变我们生活的公司，但是操作起来风险较大，在这些行业内我会控制风险，通过可转债迂回进场。","content":"<blockquote>核心观点：我们目前处在牛市初期，趋势投资的常识是，当所有人都挣钱了，才是牛市顶部出现的标志。中国的消费品、医药行业内会诞生“下一个茅台”，因为中国有14亿人口基数，但中国的消费品公司的销售额目前远低于海外同类市场。5G通讯、人工智能、新能源等领域也会诞生大牛股，这些是改变我们生活的公司，但是操作起来风险较大，在这些行业内我会控制风险，通过可转债迂回进场。</blockquote><p><b>牛市初期 不怕赶顶，上涨趋势一旦形成就很难改变</b></p><p>今天我的演讲题目是《牛市中赚大钱，最重要的是什么？》，今天这里来了这么多人，每次看到这么多人我就高兴，因为没有你们捧场，中国股市哪来那么多成交量呢！</p><p>有些投资者问我对市场的看法，我依然认为现在是牛市初期。我们是来炒股的，我不能说现在是熊市，说熊市就没人来了。我今年57岁了，即使是人造牛市，我也希望能来一个。但是，说牛市初期是我个人的判断，只是一种对趋势的判断。例如过去10年美股指数持续上行，所以我们认为这个趋势是一个牛市。</p><p>为什么我认为现在是牛市初期呢？因为现在中国股民中有90%的人不挣钱，在这种情况下，认为牛市到达了顶部，我是不赞同的。怎么样是牛市顶部？是当所有人都赚钱了，才到牛市顶部，这属于趋势投资中的常识性概念。但我知道总有一天我会说错，因为顶只有一个，有可能最后说在了顶上。但我今天说牛市，说对的概率还是很大的。</p><p>就像美股市场，很多机构包括海外投资人认为美股积累了太多涨幅，可能处在顶部阶段，对此我还真不赞同。我认为这种上涨趋势一旦形成就很难改变。“趋势”这个东西说重要很重要，说不重要也不重要，对于我们做投资的人来说，我们要关注当下，今天这个位置会不会赶顶？我认为大概率不会。至于一些方向性的错误，例如选错了行业，那么不管什么市场都会失败，这和牛市、熊市没有关系。我说中国股市现在是牛市，只是看指数的高或低，至于下面的每个细分行业，还是要区别对待。</p><p>至于牛市初期会走多久，我不好判断，我只能说现在不是牛市顶部，不要怕现在会赶顶。我们国家正在大力发展新能源、智慧城市、芯片等行业，这些行业光靠喊话是不行的，需要拿出真金白银去支持。这些资金是怎么来的？是泡沫堆出来的，任何行业只有出现泡沫，才有大力发展的可能，所以不要怕出现泡沫，我希望股市出现泡沫。</p><p>至于怎样选择高成长行业？这非常容易，中国现在缺什么？缺高端技术、缺资金，所以我们和欧美国家比那些需要资金推动的产业，例如投资，我们有明显落后的趋势。但按人口基数对比，中国有明显的优势，我们有全球1/4的人口，所以聚焦在“人多”这个优势上做投资就不会出错，这也是为什么我不断强调要找和“嘴巴”相关的公司。在健康、吃饭和消费这方面的投入，穷人和富人的花销差不多，这是刚需，是每个人必须投入的花费。中国人口基数在这摆着呢，抓住这点，就抓住了未来长期趋势的重点。在这点上，我不会说错，中国的14亿人口的医药、饮食和消费是有数据做支撑的，我们在此也做了长期布局。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20201226/124/w554h370/20201226/87f5-kftfpiw5609509.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"370\"></p><p>而对于医药行业，我判断<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600056\">中国医药</a>产业还有30年的大发展，30年后我不知道，而像新能源、5G、AI、智慧城市、人工智能等行业也都是未来的投资方向，但我觉得风险较高，所以不会长期投资，而会通过可转债迂回的参与。</p><p>相比之下，我认为金融、地产板块则存在着一定风险。我认为它们的估值相对较高，因为中国的银行和地产的利润已经做到了全球第一，没有理由再说它们便宜。便宜和贵是一个基本的判断，比较典型的便宜的行业，例如医药，我们国家的医药企业只有国外的百分之一不到，这是估值便宜的一个体现。但金融和地产行业中，这些企业已经把钱挣到了，估值相对来说就不便宜了。</p><p><b>“消费品估值过高”的判断大概率是错的，“下一个茅台”可能就在消费和医疗健康领域</b></p><p>前段时间有个记者采访我说，有一篇研究报告中提到“不为消费品唱赞歌”，作者的意思是消费品目前的股价太高了，对此我的第一反应是，他说错的概率很大，这是在跟全球过去几十年的规律作对。中国有14亿人口，现在消费品公司的这点销售额你都说高了，那我们的消费品公司就无法赶超国外同类公司了。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABT\">雅培</a>公司在过去几十年间，股价上涨了几万倍，只要员工拿得住，现在都是大富翁。相比之下，中国的同类公司市值小太多了。</p><p>如果有哪个愣头青说茅台要跌，我敢说茅台不会。茅台比黄金的投资价值还高，茅台是黄金的爷爷，因为黄金买得到，茅台酒买不到。但还是那句话，顶部只有一个。对我来说，我当初1块钱买的，现在能分3块钱的红利，这是很好的生意，所以我不会卖。在产品还没有生产出来的时候，就有货车在门口等着运走的只有茅台，全球就这一家。</p><p>也有投资人问我，下一个茅台会出现在哪里？我认为，茅台是消费品，消费品有产生大牛股的基因。还有我一直说的和人口有关系的医疗健康领域，一定会出现大牛股。至于短期内，我们会看到很多涨幅超过茅台的公司，但长期能够获胜的不是这些公司。另外，包括人工智能、新能源、5G通讯等行业，它们会改变我们的生活，也会出现大牛股，但就怕投资者抓不住。而从生活中去发现，投资一些和“嘴巴”相关的公司最简单。</p><p>判断企业估值贵不贵要看核心产品，要刨开其他产品的收入，看主营产品的ROE高不高，投资者要火眼金睛的从财报中把企业核心的1-2个产品挑出来，这些核心产品的ROE高才是真正的好公司。</p><p>如果说PE整体升幅大了，确实是风险因素，买入的时候要小心。如果是自己挣的钱，或者已经在市场上挣了很多钱了，对于这样的公司可以闭着眼睛买，出错的概率非常小。但如果是一个新手的话，还是应该相对谨慎，可能会承受不住市场的波动，做出卖出的操作。</p><p>我没有遇到过在PE很贵的时候对看好的企业做布局的情况，因为我不在很热的时候，去投资一个行业。一家企业的PE较高，是因为盈利没有发挥出来，如果盈利发挥出来，PE会随之降低，所以我们要对企业未来的持续盈利能力有一个准确地判断。就像一些核心的消费品龙头企业，市场认为，目前的PE可能较高了，需要几十年才能回本，但这取决于投资者怎么看待，我个人相信企业的大股东，他们在过去几十年中帮企业赚了钱，值得相信。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20201226/124/w554h370/20201226/08f6-kftfpiw5609724.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"370\"></p><p><b>可转债目前价格合适，未来12个月机会不错</b></p><p>明年该干什么，当下该干什么，是我们做投资要研究的重点。做长期投资，我想着20年后发财，但20年时间太慢了。当下我做的是“炒股票”，我是炒家出身，一些热门的行业我都炒。那么炒股的过程中就要研究未来6-12个月的市场规律，我知道未来12个月钱会流向哪里。今天我在埋伏着什么行业呢？我认为未来有可能炒作资金会去的，比如清洁能源、新能源、环保、智能家居、5G通信等行业，这些行业中总有一个是这些炒家会去参与的。</p><p>但炒股是存在风险的，首先是千万别在一些破公司上炒成股东。另外，风险是我们看不到的，我们炒股研究的相对短期的趋势，一家企业未来几年的发展，我可能看不到，但未来几个月甚至1年的好坏我能看到，所以炒股的风险相对较小。那么怎么去操作这些短线的投资呢？这里面是有方法的，不要去炒作正股，在注册制实施后，这类上市公司数量会越来越多，炒作这些股票失败的概率更大，包括我说的那些行业，亏钱的概率比赚钱的概率更大。</p><p>好的方法是我去年在《红周刊》投资峰会上讲到的，大家可以投资可转债，现在各个行业的公司都发了可转债，我们就对各个行业的可转债做了配置，构建了一个可转债组合，其中包含了30只到50只可转债。每年短线资金都会在可转债里面炒作，所以我就在里面等着，只要我提到的行业中的上市公司不是都倒闭了，就有可能收获很高的收益。过去12个月，有几只可转债我已经来回做了4次了，每次都挣30%多。</p><p>按照今天这个价格，可转债是有很好的机会的，对于想布局的投资者来说，要大胆埋伏，不要怕，敢做才是对的，目前投资可转债的风险是非常小的。如果做组合的话，跌到90元就买，甚至在106元以下我认为都是安全的，然后涨到30%就卖出。在座的各位都不是大机构的资金量，这些钱完全可以容下。当然也要筛选一下，选择那些发展前景还不错的公司，例如人工智能、通信行业的公司。</p><p>这个可转债组合里面包含了各个行业，所以一定是行的，所有行业都沦陷的只有2018年，碰到2018年的情况，采用我这个办法也是亏损的，只会亏损的比例比指数少一点。但2021年不会像2018年一样，今天的可转债价格是很合适的。</p><p>而且如果有的可转债一直不赚钱，大不了按照债券来处理；有的时候正股涨了几倍，可转债也会跟着上涨，涨幅不会小于股票。所以投资者如果惧怕风险，投资可转债是一个很好的方法。在资本市场上挣钱要找到诀窍，我就要做一些弯腰捡钱的事，现在就是弯腰捡钱的机会。但长期来看，这不是我们的目标，长远的目标是挣企业长期发展的钱。</p><p><b>先挣百分之十几，赚了钱才会无往而不利</b></p><p>在股市中挣企业发展的钱，最关键的是什么？我认为，如果你是苦命的人，你之前炒股没挣到什么钱，首先要做的是疗伤，不要惧怕股市，你先在短期内把钱挣了，先挣个百分之十几；然后去炒一炒，再遇到个大牛市，挣个几倍也不出奇。投资者在股市上亏钱了，损失的不光是资金，还有斗志，很多人甚至不敢去看股票账户，这就很难享受牛市的上涨。</p><p>我听到一个人亏了钱，我也很头疼，我喜欢那些赚了钱的人，因为他们赚了钱后愿意赌一把，反而越赌越赢。在中国股市中操作，说是赌也对，说是投资也对，这两者之间没有明确的界限。只要我们算清楚风险再去赌，就是获益的机会。所以在投资中，我们的实际方法很简单，就是把风险规避做到极致。疫情最严重的时候，我要求我们公司的“穷人”——就是那些资产在3000万以下的人，都买一个1年期的健康保险，我担心他们在上班的途中或者跑业务的过程中患上新冠肺炎。我很惧怕风险。</p><p>另外，对于手里的股票涨幅不小的投资者来说，想要坚定持股也很难，这是基因的问题。有些人觉得天能塌下来，我们就觉得天塌不下来，这是基因决定的东西，也没什么办法。不过你们要相信老林，我没有说错过。</p><p>现在最重要的是知道自己该干什么。最近，我有个同学，说要离婚，我说你不该现在离婚，你就20多万块钱，离婚了就没有了，也错过了很好的资金上涨的阶段，但他还是离了。如果最开始他听我的话做投资，我做的最好的那几年他都赶上了，所以他对不起老林，他把钱花了。</p><p>我还有一个同学，在1990年的时候生孩子，我当时给他包了一个1000元的红包，我们那天开玩笑说，当年的1000元钱相当于现在给了他1个亿。所以要坚定持有，长期持有，雪球是越滚越大的。但后来我和那个同学说，我说你的人生观是对的，赚的钱就是用来花的，只是这让我们这些喜欢金钱的人有点沮丧。</p><p>今天来说，我希望你们都赚钱，你们今天能够赚到钱我非常高兴。市场有人说我割韭菜，但我说的很多东西都是公开资料，看好和“嘴巴”相关的企业的数据也都是公开的。我希望把我的方法分享给你们，给你们一点启发，再加上你们的勤奋和坚持，再能够克服人性的贪婪，就能获得长期不错的回报。最怕克服不了贪婪，今天早上我遇到一个投资者，他说买我们的基金是为了做配置，我说你现在说好是做配置，就怕最后不做配置，去做别的去了。很多人以为自己能够控制住风险，做到的没有几个人，最终都变成了亏损。所以控制自己的情绪也很重要。</p>","source":"lsy1571701096748","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>林园：\"消费估值过高\"判断是错的，茅台比黄金值得投资</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n林园：\"消费估值过高\"判断是错的，茅台比黄金值得投资\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-27 09:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20201226A0I60500><strong>证券市场红周刊</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点：我们目前处在牛市初期，趋势投资的常识是，当所有人都挣钱了，才是牛市顶部出现的标志。中国的消费品、医药行业内会诞生“下一个茅台”，因为中国有14亿人口基数，但中国的消费品公司的销售额目前远低于海外同类市场。5G通讯、人工智能、新能源等领域也会诞生大牛股，这些是改变我们生活的公司，但是操作起来风险较大，在这些行业内我会控制风险，通过可转债迂回进场。牛市初期 不怕赶顶，上涨趋势一旦形成就很难...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20201226A0I60500\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af47ab6c10e46f0aea6733871f311696","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","600519":"贵州茅台","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20201226A0I60500","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2094251519","content_text":"核心观点：我们目前处在牛市初期，趋势投资的常识是，当所有人都挣钱了，才是牛市顶部出现的标志。中国的消费品、医药行业内会诞生“下一个茅台”，因为中国有14亿人口基数，但中国的消费品公司的销售额目前远低于海外同类市场。5G通讯、人工智能、新能源等领域也会诞生大牛股，这些是改变我们生活的公司，但是操作起来风险较大，在这些行业内我会控制风险，通过可转债迂回进场。牛市初期 不怕赶顶，上涨趋势一旦形成就很难改变今天我的演讲题目是《牛市中赚大钱，最重要的是什么？》，今天这里来了这么多人，每次看到这么多人我就高兴，因为没有你们捧场，中国股市哪来那么多成交量呢！有些投资者问我对市场的看法，我依然认为现在是牛市初期。我们是来炒股的，我不能说现在是熊市，说熊市就没人来了。我今年57岁了，即使是人造牛市，我也希望能来一个。但是，说牛市初期是我个人的判断，只是一种对趋势的判断。例如过去10年美股指数持续上行，所以我们认为这个趋势是一个牛市。为什么我认为现在是牛市初期呢？因为现在中国股民中有90%的人不挣钱，在这种情况下，认为牛市到达了顶部，我是不赞同的。怎么样是牛市顶部？是当所有人都赚钱了，才到牛市顶部，这属于趋势投资中的常识性概念。但我知道总有一天我会说错，因为顶只有一个，有可能最后说在了顶上。但我今天说牛市，说对的概率还是很大的。就像美股市场，很多机构包括海外投资人认为美股积累了太多涨幅，可能处在顶部阶段，对此我还真不赞同。我认为这种上涨趋势一旦形成就很难改变。“趋势”这个东西说重要很重要，说不重要也不重要，对于我们做投资的人来说，我们要关注当下，今天这个位置会不会赶顶？我认为大概率不会。至于一些方向性的错误，例如选错了行业，那么不管什么市场都会失败，这和牛市、熊市没有关系。我说中国股市现在是牛市，只是看指数的高或低，至于下面的每个细分行业，还是要区别对待。至于牛市初期会走多久，我不好判断，我只能说现在不是牛市顶部，不要怕现在会赶顶。我们国家正在大力发展新能源、智慧城市、芯片等行业，这些行业光靠喊话是不行的，需要拿出真金白银去支持。这些资金是怎么来的？是泡沫堆出来的，任何行业只有出现泡沫，才有大力发展的可能，所以不要怕出现泡沫，我希望股市出现泡沫。至于怎样选择高成长行业？这非常容易，中国现在缺什么？缺高端技术、缺资金，所以我们和欧美国家比那些需要资金推动的产业，例如投资，我们有明显落后的趋势。但按人口基数对比，中国有明显的优势，我们有全球1/4的人口，所以聚焦在“人多”这个优势上做投资就不会出错，这也是为什么我不断强调要找和“嘴巴”相关的公司。在健康、吃饭和消费这方面的投入，穷人和富人的花销差不多，这是刚需，是每个人必须投入的花费。中国人口基数在这摆着呢，抓住这点，就抓住了未来长期趋势的重点。在这点上，我不会说错，中国的14亿人口的医药、饮食和消费是有数据做支撑的，我们在此也做了长期布局。而对于医药行业，我判断中国医药产业还有30年的大发展，30年后我不知道，而像新能源、5G、AI、智慧城市、人工智能等行业也都是未来的投资方向，但我觉得风险较高，所以不会长期投资，而会通过可转债迂回的参与。相比之下，我认为金融、地产板块则存在着一定风险。我认为它们的估值相对较高，因为中国的银行和地产的利润已经做到了全球第一，没有理由再说它们便宜。便宜和贵是一个基本的判断，比较典型的便宜的行业，例如医药，我们国家的医药企业只有国外的百分之一不到，这是估值便宜的一个体现。但金融和地产行业中，这些企业已经把钱挣到了，估值相对来说就不便宜了。“消费品估值过高”的判断大概率是错的，“下一个茅台”可能就在消费和医疗健康领域前段时间有个记者采访我说，有一篇研究报告中提到“不为消费品唱赞歌”，作者的意思是消费品目前的股价太高了，对此我的第一反应是，他说错的概率很大，这是在跟全球过去几十年的规律作对。中国有14亿人口，现在消费品公司的这点销售额你都说高了，那我们的消费品公司就无法赶超国外同类公司了。雅培公司在过去几十年间，股价上涨了几万倍，只要员工拿得住，现在都是大富翁。相比之下，中国的同类公司市值小太多了。如果有哪个愣头青说茅台要跌，我敢说茅台不会。茅台比黄金的投资价值还高，茅台是黄金的爷爷，因为黄金买得到，茅台酒买不到。但还是那句话，顶部只有一个。对我来说，我当初1块钱买的，现在能分3块钱的红利，这是很好的生意，所以我不会卖。在产品还没有生产出来的时候，就有货车在门口等着运走的只有茅台，全球就这一家。也有投资人问我，下一个茅台会出现在哪里？我认为，茅台是消费品，消费品有产生大牛股的基因。还有我一直说的和人口有关系的医疗健康领域，一定会出现大牛股。至于短期内，我们会看到很多涨幅超过茅台的公司，但长期能够获胜的不是这些公司。另外，包括人工智能、新能源、5G通讯等行业，它们会改变我们的生活，也会出现大牛股，但就怕投资者抓不住。而从生活中去发现，投资一些和“嘴巴”相关的公司最简单。判断企业估值贵不贵要看核心产品，要刨开其他产品的收入，看主营产品的ROE高不高，投资者要火眼金睛的从财报中把企业核心的1-2个产品挑出来，这些核心产品的ROE高才是真正的好公司。如果说PE整体升幅大了，确实是风险因素，买入的时候要小心。如果是自己挣的钱，或者已经在市场上挣了很多钱了，对于这样的公司可以闭着眼睛买，出错的概率非常小。但如果是一个新手的话，还是应该相对谨慎，可能会承受不住市场的波动，做出卖出的操作。我没有遇到过在PE很贵的时候对看好的企业做布局的情况，因为我不在很热的时候，去投资一个行业。一家企业的PE较高，是因为盈利没有发挥出来，如果盈利发挥出来，PE会随之降低，所以我们要对企业未来的持续盈利能力有一个准确地判断。就像一些核心的消费品龙头企业，市场认为，目前的PE可能较高了，需要几十年才能回本，但这取决于投资者怎么看待，我个人相信企业的大股东，他们在过去几十年中帮企业赚了钱，值得相信。可转债目前价格合适，未来12个月机会不错明年该干什么，当下该干什么，是我们做投资要研究的重点。做长期投资，我想着20年后发财，但20年时间太慢了。当下我做的是“炒股票”，我是炒家出身，一些热门的行业我都炒。那么炒股的过程中就要研究未来6-12个月的市场规律，我知道未来12个月钱会流向哪里。今天我在埋伏着什么行业呢？我认为未来有可能炒作资金会去的，比如清洁能源、新能源、环保、智能家居、5G通信等行业，这些行业中总有一个是这些炒家会去参与的。但炒股是存在风险的，首先是千万别在一些破公司上炒成股东。另外，风险是我们看不到的，我们炒股研究的相对短期的趋势，一家企业未来几年的发展，我可能看不到，但未来几个月甚至1年的好坏我能看到，所以炒股的风险相对较小。那么怎么去操作这些短线的投资呢？这里面是有方法的，不要去炒作正股，在注册制实施后，这类上市公司数量会越来越多，炒作这些股票失败的概率更大，包括我说的那些行业，亏钱的概率比赚钱的概率更大。好的方法是我去年在《红周刊》投资峰会上讲到的，大家可以投资可转债，现在各个行业的公司都发了可转债，我们就对各个行业的可转债做了配置，构建了一个可转债组合，其中包含了30只到50只可转债。每年短线资金都会在可转债里面炒作，所以我就在里面等着，只要我提到的行业中的上市公司不是都倒闭了，就有可能收获很高的收益。过去12个月，有几只可转债我已经来回做了4次了，每次都挣30%多。按照今天这个价格，可转债是有很好的机会的，对于想布局的投资者来说，要大胆埋伏，不要怕，敢做才是对的，目前投资可转债的风险是非常小的。如果做组合的话，跌到90元就买，甚至在106元以下我认为都是安全的，然后涨到30%就卖出。在座的各位都不是大机构的资金量，这些钱完全可以容下。当然也要筛选一下，选择那些发展前景还不错的公司，例如人工智能、通信行业的公司。这个可转债组合里面包含了各个行业，所以一定是行的，所有行业都沦陷的只有2018年，碰到2018年的情况，采用我这个办法也是亏损的，只会亏损的比例比指数少一点。但2021年不会像2018年一样，今天的可转债价格是很合适的。而且如果有的可转债一直不赚钱，大不了按照债券来处理；有的时候正股涨了几倍，可转债也会跟着上涨，涨幅不会小于股票。所以投资者如果惧怕风险，投资可转债是一个很好的方法。在资本市场上挣钱要找到诀窍，我就要做一些弯腰捡钱的事，现在就是弯腰捡钱的机会。但长期来看，这不是我们的目标，长远的目标是挣企业长期发展的钱。先挣百分之十几，赚了钱才会无往而不利在股市中挣企业发展的钱，最关键的是什么？我认为，如果你是苦命的人，你之前炒股没挣到什么钱，首先要做的是疗伤，不要惧怕股市，你先在短期内把钱挣了，先挣个百分之十几；然后去炒一炒，再遇到个大牛市，挣个几倍也不出奇。投资者在股市上亏钱了，损失的不光是资金，还有斗志，很多人甚至不敢去看股票账户，这就很难享受牛市的上涨。我听到一个人亏了钱，我也很头疼，我喜欢那些赚了钱的人，因为他们赚了钱后愿意赌一把，反而越赌越赢。在中国股市中操作，说是赌也对，说是投资也对，这两者之间没有明确的界限。只要我们算清楚风险再去赌，就是获益的机会。所以在投资中，我们的实际方法很简单，就是把风险规避做到极致。疫情最严重的时候，我要求我们公司的“穷人”——就是那些资产在3000万以下的人，都买一个1年期的健康保险，我担心他们在上班的途中或者跑业务的过程中患上新冠肺炎。我很惧怕风险。另外，对于手里的股票涨幅不小的投资者来说，想要坚定持股也很难，这是基因的问题。有些人觉得天能塌下来，我们就觉得天塌不下来，这是基因决定的东西，也没什么办法。不过你们要相信老林，我没有说错过。现在最重要的是知道自己该干什么。最近，我有个同学，说要离婚，我说你不该现在离婚，你就20多万块钱，离婚了就没有了，也错过了很好的资金上涨的阶段，但他还是离了。如果最开始他听我的话做投资，我做的最好的那几年他都赶上了，所以他对不起老林，他把钱花了。我还有一个同学，在1990年的时候生孩子，我当时给他包了一个1000元的红包，我们那天开玩笑说，当年的1000元钱相当于现在给了他1个亿。所以要坚定持有，长期持有，雪球是越滚越大的。但后来我和那个同学说，我说你的人生观是对的，赚的钱就是用来花的，只是这让我们这些喜欢金钱的人有点沮丧。今天来说，我希望你们都赚钱，你们今天能够赚到钱我非常高兴。市场有人说我割韭菜，但我说的很多东西都是公开资料，看好和“嘴巴”相关的企业的数据也都是公开的。我希望把我的方法分享给你们，给你们一点启发，再加上你们的勤奋和坚持，再能够克服人性的贪婪，就能获得长期不错的回报。最怕克服不了贪婪，今天早上我遇到一个投资者，他说买我们的基金是为了做配置，我说你现在说好是做配置，就怕最后不做配置，去做别的去了。很多人以为自己能够控制住风险，做到的没有几个人，最终都变成了亏损。所以控制自己的情绪也很重要。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"600519":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"IAU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":339436252,"gmtCreate":1609002317176,"gmtModify":1703737477777,"author":{"id":"3571957013350377","authorId":"3571957013350377","name":"Ratman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8deb45bfcb9af1dff93123ad083df245","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571957013350377","authorIdStr":"3571957013350377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Follow","listText":"Follow","text":"Follow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339436252","repostId":"1109042067","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":339436127,"gmtCreate":1609001822969,"gmtModify":1703737477084,"author":{"id":"3571957013350377","authorId":"3571957013350377","name":"Ratman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8deb45bfcb9af1dff93123ad083df245","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571957013350377","authorIdStr":"3571957013350377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting ventures","listText":"Interesting ventures","text":"Interesting ventures","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339436127","repostId":"1124510560","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124510560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1608866332,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124510560?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-25 11:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Apple Would Want From the Auto Market?<blockquote>苹果想从汽车市场得到什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124510560","media":"Barrons","summary":"Talk that Apple could launch an autonomous car as soon as 2024 had the market abuzz this past week.\n","content":"<p>Talk that&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;could launch an autonomous car as soon as 2024 had the market abuzz this past week.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，有关苹果最早可能在2024年推出自动驾驶汽车的传言在市场上引起了热议。</blockquote></p><p> The iCar chatter started witha Reuters report, and investors responded by bidding up the market cap of Apple (ticker: AAPL) by about $145 billion from Monday’s low to Tuesday’s close. That’s more than the market values ofFord Motor(F),General Motors(GM), andFiat Chrysler(FCAU) combined. Imagine if Apple had actually announced something.</p><p><blockquote>iCar的讨论始于路透社的一篇报道，投资者的回应是将苹果（股票代码：AAPL）的市值从周一的低点到周二的收盘上涨了约1,450亿美元。这超过了福特汽车(F)、通用汽车(GM)和菲亚特克莱斯勒(FCAU)的市值总和。想象一下，如果苹果真的宣布了一些事情。</blockquote></p><p> Stories about Apple’s ambitions in the automobile market have swirled for at least a decade. “Steve Jobs, if he’d lived, was going to design an iCar,” Mickey Drexler, a former Apple board member,said in a 2014 interviewat the Parsons School of Design in New York. Over the years, there have been reports that Apple has hired hundreds of engineers for what is supposedly known as Project Titan. The Reuters report says that Apple has new battery technology that will provide longer range and lower costs than existing batteries used byTesla(TSLA) and others. Apple isn’t saying anything—it never talks about unannounced products—but I doubt that we will see iCar dealerships anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>关于苹果在汽车市场野心的故事已经流传了至少十年。“如果史蒂夫·乔布斯还活着，他一定会设计iCar，”苹果前董事会成员米基·德雷克斯勒(Mickey Drexler)2014年在纽约帕森斯设计学院接受采访时表示。多年来，有报道称苹果为所谓的泰坦计划雇佣了数百名工程师。路透社报道称，苹果拥有新的电池技术，与特斯拉（TSLA）和其他公司使用的现有电池相比，该技术将提供更长的续航里程和更低的成本。苹果什么也没说——它从不谈论未公布的产品——但我怀疑我们会很快看到iCar经销商。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, the appeal of this idea is obvious. Apple’s sales are enormous—Wall Street expects $330 billion in the September 2022 fiscal year. To drive meaningful growth, it must aim at large markets. And as my colleague Al Root has calculated,the world’s 26 largest auto makers last year had sales of more than $2 trillion combined.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，这个想法的吸引力是显而易见的。苹果的销售额巨大——华尔街预计2022年9月财年的销售额将达到3300亿美元。为了推动有意义的增长，它必须瞄准大型市场。正如我的同事Al Root计算的那样，去年全球26家最大的汽车制造商的总销售额超过2万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But I find the notion of Apple becoming a full-fledged car company far-fetched. Sure, Apple has long been nibbling around the edges of the auto market with its CarPlay service for in-cabin entertainment and maps. Yet Apple’s expertise is in design, engineering, logistics, and marketing. It doesn’t manufacture anything, relying on contractors to make phones, Macs, and other wares. As Citigroup analyst Jim Suva notes, making cars would compress Apple’s margins, making it an unlikely strategy.</p><p><blockquote>但我发现苹果成为一家成熟汽车公司的想法有些牵强。当然，苹果长期以来一直通过其用于车内娱乐和地图的CarPlay服务蚕食汽车市场的边缘。然而，苹果的专长是设计、工程、物流和营销。它不生产任何东西，依靠承包商制造手机、苹果电脑和其他商品。正如花旗集团分析师Jim Suva指出的那样，制造汽车会压缩苹果的利润率，使其成为一项不太可能的战略。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, Apple is not just going to ignore a $2 trillion market. Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas wrote last week that he and his tech analyst colleagues have long thought that Apple would one day design and engineer a car.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，苹果不会忽视2万亿美元的市场。Morgan Stanley汽车分析师Adam Jonas上周写道，他和他的科技分析师同事长期以来一直认为苹果有一天会设计和制造汽车。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s not that we believe Apple wants to get into the auto industry as conceived by today’s auto companies, but that Apple may have an interest in enhancing the driving experience with vertical integration of hardware, software, and services,” he said in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中表示：“我们并不认为苹果想要像当今汽车公司所设想的那样进入汽车行业，而是苹果可能有兴趣通过硬件、软件和服务的垂直整合来增强驾驶体验。”笔记。</blockquote></p><p> Jonas thinks that the value of services in the “internet of cars”—multiply monthly active users (drivers) by average revenue per driver—could dwarf sales from simply selling cars. “The world’s 1.2 billion light vehicles travel in excess of 10 trillion miles per year, and humanity spends over 600 billion hours of time inside automobiles annually...the equivalent of 68 million years,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>乔纳斯认为，“车联网”中的服务价值——每月活跃用户（司机）乘以每个司机的平均收入——可能会让单纯销售汽车的销售额相形见绌。“世界上12亿辆轻型汽车每年行驶超过10万亿英里，人类每年在汽车内度过的时间超过6000亿小时……相当于6800万年，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Now, imagine those were autonomous cars. That would free up a lot of consumer time to watch Apple TV+, listen to Apple Music, read Apple News, and play in Apple Arcade on iPhones, iPads, or MacBooks.</p><p><blockquote>现在，想象一下那些是自动驾驶汽车。这将为消费者腾出大量时间观看苹果TV+、听苹果音乐、阅读苹果新闻频道以及在iPhones、iPads或MacBooks上玩苹果街机游戏。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla CEO Elon Musk entered the iCar discussion on Tuesday.In a tweet, he said that during a difficult moment for his company, he reached out to Apple CEO Tim Cook to discuss selling Tesla to Apple for a 10th of the recent price (let’s call it $60 billion). Cook “refused to take the meeting,” Musk wrote.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉CEO Elon Musk周二加入了iCar讨论。他在一条推文中表示，在他的公司处于困难时刻，他联系了苹果首席执行官Tim Cook，讨论以最近价格的十分之一（苹果600亿美元）将特斯拉出售给看涨期权。马斯克写道，库克“拒绝参加会议”。</blockquote></p><p> Whether an Apple/Tesla combination would have worked, we’ll never know.</p><p><blockquote>苹果/特斯拉的组合是否可行，我们永远不会知道。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s get small: The huge 2002 tech rally has stripped the landscape clean of obvious bargains. (Though I think I found one inYelp[YELP]; see“Yelp Stock Deserves a Positive Review. Expect a Reopening Rebound.”.) In search of cheap merchandise, I chatted recently with Jeffrey Meyers, proprietor of Cobia Capital, a New York–based hedge fund. His preference is for unloved and unknown tech companies with market caps under $3 billion that trade at modest multiples. Here are two examples.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从小处着眼：2002年科技股的巨大反弹已经清除了明显的便宜货。（虽然我想我在Yelp[Yelp]上找到了一个；参见“Yelp股票值得积极评价。期待重新开放的反弹。”。）为了寻找廉价商品，我最近与纽约对冲基金Cobia Capital的所有者杰弗里·迈耶斯（Jeffrey Meyers）聊了聊。他更喜欢市值低于30亿美元、市盈率适中的不受欢迎和不知名的科技公司。这里有两个例子。</blockquote></p><p> Meyers is keen onAirGain(AIRG), which makes antennae for fixed and mobile wireless applications. He’s especially jazzed about the prospects for a new AirGain antenna for first-responder vehicles that allows them greater range so radio signals can penetrate farther into buildings. AirGain is up about 40% this year, but he sees higher highs. Now trading for about $15, it could be a $75 stock a few years from now, he thinks.</p><p><blockquote>迈耶斯热衷于AirGain(AIRG)，该公司为固定和移动无线应用生产天线。他对用于急救车辆的新型AirGain天线的前景特别兴奋，这种天线可以使它们具有更大的范围，以便无线电信号可以穿透更远的建筑物。AirGain今年上涨了约40%，但他预计会有更高的高点。他认为，现在的交易价格约为15美元，几年后可能会成为75美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> He is also enthusiastic aboutNordic Semiconductor(NOD.Norway), a Norwegian company that makes Bluetooth chips for things other than smartphones: headsets, keyboards, mice, and other applications. Meyers notes that the chips are found, for instance, in Tile tracking devices, which can be attached to almost anything that you wouldn’t want to lose—your dog, say, or your keys. Apple is rumored to be working on a similar product, which he thinks also could include Nordic’s chips.</p><p><blockquote>他还对Nordic Semiconductor(NOD.Norway)充满热情，这是一家挪威公司，为智能手机以外的产品生产蓝牙芯片：耳机、键盘、鼠标和其他应用。迈耶斯指出，例如，这些芯片可以在瓷砖跟踪设备中找到，这些设备可以连接到几乎任何你不想丢失的东西上——比如你的狗或你的钥匙。据传苹果正在开发类似的产品，他认为该产品也可能包括Nordic的芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nordic shares aren’t as cheap as those of other Meyers picks, but the company is seeing accelerating growth—revenue was up 45%, year over year, in the September quarter and 34% sequentially—in a growing niche. Nordic, meanwhile, is gaining some early traction in chips used in cellular-based Internet of Things applications.</p><p><blockquote>Nordic的股票并不像Meyers精选的其他股票那么便宜，但该公司正在加速增长——9月份季度的收入同比增长45%，环比增长34%——在一个不断增长的利基市场。与此同时，Nordic在用于基于蜂窝的物联网应用的芯片方面获得了一些早期关注。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is looking for…well, there aren’t any U.S. analysts. Just the kind of stock Meyers loves. Nordic could be acquisition bait for many potential buyers, he says, as the chip sector continues to consolidate.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街正在寻找……嗯，没有任何美国分析师。正是迈耶斯喜欢的那种股票。他表示，随着芯片行业的持续整合，Nordic可能成为许多潜在买家的收购诱饵。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Apple Would Want From the Auto Market?<blockquote>苹果想从汽车市场得到什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Apple Would Want From the Auto Market?<blockquote>苹果想从汽车市场得到什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-12-25 11:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Talk that&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;could launch an autonomous car as soon as 2024 had the market abuzz this past week.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，有关苹果最早可能在2024年推出自动驾驶汽车的传言在市场上引起了热议。</blockquote></p><p> The iCar chatter started witha Reuters report, and investors responded by bidding up the market cap of Apple (ticker: AAPL) by about $145 billion from Monday’s low to Tuesday’s close. That’s more than the market values ofFord Motor(F),General Motors(GM), andFiat Chrysler(FCAU) combined. Imagine if Apple had actually announced something.</p><p><blockquote>iCar的讨论始于路透社的一篇报道，投资者的回应是将苹果（股票代码：AAPL）的市值从周一的低点到周二的收盘上涨了约1,450亿美元。这超过了福特汽车(F)、通用汽车(GM)和菲亚特克莱斯勒(FCAU)的市值总和。想象一下，如果苹果真的宣布了一些事情。</blockquote></p><p> Stories about Apple’s ambitions in the automobile market have swirled for at least a decade. “Steve Jobs, if he’d lived, was going to design an iCar,” Mickey Drexler, a former Apple board member,said in a 2014 interviewat the Parsons School of Design in New York. Over the years, there have been reports that Apple has hired hundreds of engineers for what is supposedly known as Project Titan. The Reuters report says that Apple has new battery technology that will provide longer range and lower costs than existing batteries used byTesla(TSLA) and others. Apple isn’t saying anything—it never talks about unannounced products—but I doubt that we will see iCar dealerships anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>关于苹果在汽车市场野心的故事已经流传了至少十年。“如果史蒂夫·乔布斯还活着，他一定会设计iCar，”苹果前董事会成员米基·德雷克斯勒(Mickey Drexler)2014年在纽约帕森斯设计学院接受采访时表示。多年来，有报道称苹果为所谓的泰坦计划雇佣了数百名工程师。路透社报道称，苹果拥有新的电池技术，与特斯拉（TSLA）和其他公司使用的现有电池相比，该技术将提供更长的续航里程和更低的成本。苹果什么也没说——它从不谈论未公布的产品——但我怀疑我们会很快看到iCar经销商。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, the appeal of this idea is obvious. Apple’s sales are enormous—Wall Street expects $330 billion in the September 2022 fiscal year. To drive meaningful growth, it must aim at large markets. And as my colleague Al Root has calculated,the world’s 26 largest auto makers last year had sales of more than $2 trillion combined.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，这个想法的吸引力是显而易见的。苹果的销售额巨大——华尔街预计2022年9月财年的销售额将达到3300亿美元。为了推动有意义的增长，它必须瞄准大型市场。正如我的同事Al Root计算的那样，去年全球26家最大的汽车制造商的总销售额超过2万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But I find the notion of Apple becoming a full-fledged car company far-fetched. Sure, Apple has long been nibbling around the edges of the auto market with its CarPlay service for in-cabin entertainment and maps. Yet Apple’s expertise is in design, engineering, logistics, and marketing. It doesn’t manufacture anything, relying on contractors to make phones, Macs, and other wares. As Citigroup analyst Jim Suva notes, making cars would compress Apple’s margins, making it an unlikely strategy.</p><p><blockquote>但我发现苹果成为一家成熟汽车公司的想法有些牵强。当然，苹果长期以来一直通过其用于车内娱乐和地图的CarPlay服务蚕食汽车市场的边缘。然而，苹果的专长是设计、工程、物流和营销。它不生产任何东西，依靠承包商制造手机、苹果电脑和其他商品。正如花旗集团分析师Jim Suva指出的那样，制造汽车会压缩苹果的利润率，使其成为一项不太可能的战略。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, Apple is not just going to ignore a $2 trillion market. Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas wrote last week that he and his tech analyst colleagues have long thought that Apple would one day design and engineer a car.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，苹果不会忽视2万亿美元的市场。Morgan Stanley汽车分析师Adam Jonas上周写道，他和他的科技分析师同事长期以来一直认为苹果有一天会设计和制造汽车。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s not that we believe Apple wants to get into the auto industry as conceived by today’s auto companies, but that Apple may have an interest in enhancing the driving experience with vertical integration of hardware, software, and services,” he said in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中表示：“我们并不认为苹果想要像当今汽车公司所设想的那样进入汽车行业，而是苹果可能有兴趣通过硬件、软件和服务的垂直整合来增强驾驶体验。”笔记。</blockquote></p><p> Jonas thinks that the value of services in the “internet of cars”—multiply monthly active users (drivers) by average revenue per driver—could dwarf sales from simply selling cars. “The world’s 1.2 billion light vehicles travel in excess of 10 trillion miles per year, and humanity spends over 600 billion hours of time inside automobiles annually...the equivalent of 68 million years,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>乔纳斯认为，“车联网”中的服务价值——每月活跃用户（司机）乘以每个司机的平均收入——可能会让单纯销售汽车的销售额相形见绌。“世界上12亿辆轻型汽车每年行驶超过10万亿英里，人类每年在汽车内度过的时间超过6000亿小时……相当于6800万年，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Now, imagine those were autonomous cars. That would free up a lot of consumer time to watch Apple TV+, listen to Apple Music, read Apple News, and play in Apple Arcade on iPhones, iPads, or MacBooks.</p><p><blockquote>现在，想象一下那些是自动驾驶汽车。这将为消费者腾出大量时间观看苹果TV+、听苹果音乐、阅读苹果新闻频道以及在iPhones、iPads或MacBooks上玩苹果街机游戏。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla CEO Elon Musk entered the iCar discussion on Tuesday.In a tweet, he said that during a difficult moment for his company, he reached out to Apple CEO Tim Cook to discuss selling Tesla to Apple for a 10th of the recent price (let’s call it $60 billion). Cook “refused to take the meeting,” Musk wrote.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉CEO Elon Musk周二加入了iCar讨论。他在一条推文中表示，在他的公司处于困难时刻，他联系了苹果首席执行官Tim Cook，讨论以最近价格的十分之一（苹果600亿美元）将特斯拉出售给看涨期权。马斯克写道，库克“拒绝参加会议”。</blockquote></p><p> Whether an Apple/Tesla combination would have worked, we’ll never know.</p><p><blockquote>苹果/特斯拉的组合是否可行，我们永远不会知道。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s get small: The huge 2002 tech rally has stripped the landscape clean of obvious bargains. (Though I think I found one inYelp[YELP]; see“Yelp Stock Deserves a Positive Review. Expect a Reopening Rebound.”.) In search of cheap merchandise, I chatted recently with Jeffrey Meyers, proprietor of Cobia Capital, a New York–based hedge fund. His preference is for unloved and unknown tech companies with market caps under $3 billion that trade at modest multiples. Here are two examples.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从小处着眼：2002年科技股的巨大反弹已经清除了明显的便宜货。（虽然我想我在Yelp[Yelp]上找到了一个；参见“Yelp股票值得积极评价。期待重新开放的反弹。”。）为了寻找廉价商品，我最近与纽约对冲基金Cobia Capital的所有者杰弗里·迈耶斯（Jeffrey Meyers）聊了聊。他更喜欢市值低于30亿美元、市盈率适中的不受欢迎和不知名的科技公司。这里有两个例子。</blockquote></p><p> Meyers is keen onAirGain(AIRG), which makes antennae for fixed and mobile wireless applications. He’s especially jazzed about the prospects for a new AirGain antenna for first-responder vehicles that allows them greater range so radio signals can penetrate farther into buildings. AirGain is up about 40% this year, but he sees higher highs. Now trading for about $15, it could be a $75 stock a few years from now, he thinks.</p><p><blockquote>迈耶斯热衷于AirGain(AIRG)，该公司为固定和移动无线应用生产天线。他对用于急救车辆的新型AirGain天线的前景特别兴奋，这种天线可以使它们具有更大的范围，以便无线电信号可以穿透更远的建筑物。AirGain今年上涨了约40%，但他预计会有更高的高点。他认为，现在的交易价格约为15美元，几年后可能会成为75美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> He is also enthusiastic aboutNordic Semiconductor(NOD.Norway), a Norwegian company that makes Bluetooth chips for things other than smartphones: headsets, keyboards, mice, and other applications. Meyers notes that the chips are found, for instance, in Tile tracking devices, which can be attached to almost anything that you wouldn’t want to lose—your dog, say, or your keys. Apple is rumored to be working on a similar product, which he thinks also could include Nordic’s chips.</p><p><blockquote>他还对Nordic Semiconductor(NOD.Norway)充满热情，这是一家挪威公司，为智能手机以外的产品生产蓝牙芯片：耳机、键盘、鼠标和其他应用。迈耶斯指出，例如，这些芯片可以在瓷砖跟踪设备中找到，这些设备可以连接到几乎任何你不想丢失的东西上——比如你的狗或你的钥匙。据传苹果正在开发类似的产品，他认为该产品也可能包括Nordic的芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nordic shares aren’t as cheap as those of other Meyers picks, but the company is seeing accelerating growth—revenue was up 45%, year over year, in the September quarter and 34% sequentially—in a growing niche. Nordic, meanwhile, is gaining some early traction in chips used in cellular-based Internet of Things applications.</p><p><blockquote>Nordic的股票并不像Meyers精选的其他股票那么便宜，但该公司正在加速增长——9月份季度的收入同比增长45%，环比增长34%——在一个不断增长的利基市场。与此同时，Nordic在用于基于蜂窝的物联网应用的芯片方面获得了一些早期关注。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is looking for…well, there aren’t any U.S. analysts. Just the kind of stock Meyers loves. Nordic could be acquisition bait for many potential buyers, he says, as the chip sector continues to consolidate.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街正在寻找……嗯，没有任何美国分析师。正是迈耶斯喜欢的那种股票。他表示，随着芯片行业的持续整合，Nordic可能成为许多潜在买家的收购诱饵。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-apple-would-want-from-the-auto-market-its-not-about-making-cars-51608831016?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-apple-would-want-from-the-auto-market-its-not-about-making-cars-51608831016?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124510560","content_text":"Talk that Apple could launch an autonomous car as soon as 2024 had the market abuzz this past week.\nThe iCar chatter started witha Reuters report, and investors responded by bidding up the market cap of Apple (ticker: AAPL) by about $145 billion from Monday’s low to Tuesday’s close. That’s more than the market values ofFord Motor(F),General Motors(GM), andFiat Chrysler(FCAU) combined. Imagine if Apple had actually announced something.\nStories about Apple’s ambitions in the automobile market have swirled for at least a decade. “Steve Jobs, if he’d lived, was going to design an iCar,” Mickey Drexler, a former Apple board member,said in a 2014 interviewat the Parsons School of Design in New York. Over the years, there have been reports that Apple has hired hundreds of engineers for what is supposedly known as Project Titan. The Reuters report says that Apple has new battery technology that will provide longer range and lower costs than existing batteries used byTesla(TSLA) and others. Apple isn’t saying anything—it never talks about unannounced products—but I doubt that we will see iCar dealerships anytime soon.\nTo be clear, the appeal of this idea is obvious. Apple’s sales are enormous—Wall Street expects $330 billion in the September 2022 fiscal year. To drive meaningful growth, it must aim at large markets. And as my colleague Al Root has calculated,the world’s 26 largest auto makers last year had sales of more than $2 trillion combined.\nBut I find the notion of Apple becoming a full-fledged car company far-fetched. Sure, Apple has long been nibbling around the edges of the auto market with its CarPlay service for in-cabin entertainment and maps. Yet Apple’s expertise is in design, engineering, logistics, and marketing. It doesn’t manufacture anything, relying on contractors to make phones, Macs, and other wares. As Citigroup analyst Jim Suva notes, making cars would compress Apple’s margins, making it an unlikely strategy.\nAt the same time, Apple is not just going to ignore a $2 trillion market. Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas wrote last week that he and his tech analyst colleagues have long thought that Apple would one day design and engineer a car.\n“It’s not that we believe Apple wants to get into the auto industry as conceived by today’s auto companies, but that Apple may have an interest in enhancing the driving experience with vertical integration of hardware, software, and services,” he said in a research note.\nJonas thinks that the value of services in the “internet of cars”—multiply monthly active users (drivers) by average revenue per driver—could dwarf sales from simply selling cars. “The world’s 1.2 billion light vehicles travel in excess of 10 trillion miles per year, and humanity spends over 600 billion hours of time inside automobiles annually...the equivalent of 68 million years,” he said.\nNow, imagine those were autonomous cars. That would free up a lot of consumer time to watch Apple TV+, listen to Apple Music, read Apple News, and play in Apple Arcade on iPhones, iPads, or MacBooks.\nTesla CEO Elon Musk entered the iCar discussion on Tuesday.In a tweet, he said that during a difficult moment for his company, he reached out to Apple CEO Tim Cook to discuss selling Tesla to Apple for a 10th of the recent price (let’s call it $60 billion). Cook “refused to take the meeting,” Musk wrote.\nWhether an Apple/Tesla combination would have worked, we’ll never know.\nLet’s get small: The huge 2002 tech rally has stripped the landscape clean of obvious bargains. (Though I think I found one inYelp[YELP]; see“Yelp Stock Deserves a Positive Review. Expect a Reopening Rebound.”.) In search of cheap merchandise, I chatted recently with Jeffrey Meyers, proprietor of Cobia Capital, a New York–based hedge fund. His preference is for unloved and unknown tech companies with market caps under $3 billion that trade at modest multiples. Here are two examples.\nMeyers is keen onAirGain(AIRG), which makes antennae for fixed and mobile wireless applications. He’s especially jazzed about the prospects for a new AirGain antenna for first-responder vehicles that allows them greater range so radio signals can penetrate farther into buildings. AirGain is up about 40% this year, but he sees higher highs. Now trading for about $15, it could be a $75 stock a few years from now, he thinks.\nHe is also enthusiastic aboutNordic Semiconductor(NOD.Norway), a Norwegian company that makes Bluetooth chips for things other than smartphones: headsets, keyboards, mice, and other applications. Meyers notes that the chips are found, for instance, in Tile tracking devices, which can be attached to almost anything that you wouldn’t want to lose—your dog, say, or your keys. Apple is rumored to be working on a similar product, which he thinks also could include Nordic’s chips.\nNordic shares aren’t as cheap as those of other Meyers picks, but the company is seeing accelerating growth—revenue was up 45%, year over year, in the September quarter and 34% sequentially—in a growing niche. Nordic, meanwhile, is gaining some early traction in chips used in cellular-based Internet of Things applications.\nWall Street is looking for…well, there aren’t any U.S. analysts. Just the kind of stock Meyers loves. Nordic could be acquisition bait for many potential buyers, he says, as the chip sector continues to consolidate.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":339436904,"gmtCreate":1609001737508,"gmtModify":1703737476567,"author":{"id":"3571957013350377","authorId":"3571957013350377","name":"Ratman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8deb45bfcb9af1dff93123ad083df245","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571957013350377","authorIdStr":"3571957013350377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Electric car is the future","listText":"Electric car is the future","text":"Electric car is the future","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339436904","repostId":"1142277800","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1077,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":339438250,"gmtCreate":1609001479370,"gmtModify":1703737476050,"author":{"id":"3571957013350377","authorId":"3571957013350377","name":"Ratman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8deb45bfcb9af1dff93123ad083df245","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571957013350377","authorIdStr":"3571957013350377"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yup","listText":"Yup","text":"Yup","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339438250","repostId":"1185532673","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185532673","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1608886161,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185532673?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-25 16:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tech Stocks Could Rise 25% in 2021, Say Wedbush Analysts<blockquote>Wedbush分析师表示，2021年科技股可能上涨25%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185532673","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Wedbush names five stocks that could benefit the most as the economy reopens.Next year could be anot","content":"<p>Wedbush names five stocks that could benefit the most as the economy reopens.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什列出了随着经济重新开放可能受益最大的五只股票。</blockquote></p><p>Next year could be another strong year for tech stocks as the economy starts to grow again with the distribution of a COVID vaccine, according to analysts Daniel Ives and Strecker Backe at Wedbush.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯(Daniel Ives)和斯特雷克·贝克(Strecker Backe)表示，随着新冠疫苗的分发，经济开始再次增长，明年可能是科技股又一个强劲的一年。</blockquote></p><p>While they acknowledge that some tech stocks have already become highly valued -- indeed, the number of downgrades of tech stocks on valuation concerns hasrisen dramaticallyin recent weeks -- the two view this as a “re-rating paradigm” as tech investors hunt for growth.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们承认一些科技股的估值已经很高——事实上，最近几周因估值担忧而下调科技股评级的数量急剧增加——但两人认为，随着科技投资者寻求增长，这是一种“重新评级范式”。</blockquote></p><p>With a vaccine rolling out and some form of normalization expected to return by the spring or summer, the two are most positive on Uber&nbsp;(<b>UBER</b>), Lyft&nbsp;(<b>LYFT</b>), Tesla&nbsp;(<b>TSLA</b>) , Cerence&nbsp;(<b>CRNC</b>) and Nuance&nbsp;(<b>NUAN</b>) , the latter based on the potential for larger health-care deals occurring.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫苗的推出以及某种形式的正常化预计将在春季或夏季恢复，两者对Uber的看法最为积极（<b>优步</b>)、Lyft(<b>LYFT</b>)、特斯拉(<b>特斯拉</b>)、塞伦斯(<b>CRNC</b>）和细微差别（<b>暖</b>），后者基于更大的医疗保健交易发生的可能性。</blockquote></p><p>The two have been bullish on tech stocks since March, arguing that a first phase favored cloud/consumer services such as Apple&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>), Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>), Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) &nbsp;and Disney&nbsp;(<b>DIS</b>) ; cybersecurity plays such as Zcaler&nbsp;(<b>ZS</b>), Crowdstrike&nbsp;(<b>CRWD</b>)&nbsp;and Okta&nbsp;(<b>OKTA</b>), and working-from-home stocks such as Zoom Video&nbsp;(<b>ZM</b>), Docusign&nbsp;(<b>DOCU</b>) and Slack&nbsp;(<b>WORK</b>).</p><p><blockquote>自3月份以来，两人一直看好科技股，认为第一阶段有利于苹果等云/消费服务（<b>AAPL</b>)、亚马逊(<b>AMZN</b>）、Netflix（<b>NFLX</b>）和迪士尼（<b>说</b>);Zcaler等网络安全游戏（<b>ZS</b>)、Crowdstrike(<b>CRWD</b>）和Okta（<b>奥克塔</b>），以及Zoom Video等在家工作股票（<b>ZM</b>)、Docusign(<b>多库</b>）和松弛（<b>工作</b>).</blockquote></p><p>Now they say we’re entering a second phase as the economic rebound supports the “fundamental and growth trajectories of well-positioned tech stocks.”</p><p><blockquote>现在他们表示，随着经济反弹支持“定位良好的科技股的基本面和增长轨迹”，我们正在进入第二阶段。</blockquote></p><p>That points to favoring working-from-home stocks, FAANG names and cloud stocks for at least the next six to 12 months, they say, with a fundamental growth driver remaining especially strong around cloud and cybersecurity names as a result of the massive SolarWinds&nbsp;(<b>SWI</b>)&nbsp;hack.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，这表明至少在未来6到12个月内，在家工作股票、FAANG名称和云股票将受到青睐，由于大规模SolarWinds（<b>SWI</b>）黑客。</blockquote></p><p>Roughly 35% of workloads are now on the cloud but that number is projected to hit 55% by 2022, according to Ives and Backe.</p><p><blockquote>Ives和Backe表示，目前大约35%的工作负载位于云上，但预计到2022年这一数字将达到55%。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, the strongest tech plays on an economic recovery are likely to be Uber and Lyft as a return to the office and travel in 2021 should improve both their businesses dramatically and result in these stocks moving much higher in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>最后，经济复苏中最强劲的科技股可能是优步和Lyft，因为2021年重返办公室和旅行应该会显着改善他们的业务，并导致这些股票在2021年大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTech Stocks Could Rise 25% in 2021, Say Wedbush Analysts<blockquote>Wedbush分析师表示，2021年科技股可能上涨25%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-12-25 16:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Wedbush names five stocks that could benefit the most as the economy reopens.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什列出了随着经济重新开放可能受益最大的五只股票。</blockquote></p><p>Next year could be another strong year for tech stocks as the economy starts to grow again with the distribution of a COVID vaccine, according to analysts Daniel Ives and Strecker Backe at Wedbush.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯(Daniel Ives)和斯特雷克·贝克(Strecker Backe)表示，随着新冠疫苗的分发，经济开始再次增长，明年可能是科技股又一个强劲的一年。</blockquote></p><p>While they acknowledge that some tech stocks have already become highly valued -- indeed, the number of downgrades of tech stocks on valuation concerns hasrisen dramaticallyin recent weeks -- the two view this as a “re-rating paradigm” as tech investors hunt for growth.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们承认一些科技股的估值已经很高——事实上，最近几周因估值担忧而下调科技股评级的数量急剧增加——但两人认为，随着科技投资者寻求增长，这是一种“重新评级范式”。</blockquote></p><p>With a vaccine rolling out and some form of normalization expected to return by the spring or summer, the two are most positive on Uber&nbsp;(<b>UBER</b>), Lyft&nbsp;(<b>LYFT</b>), Tesla&nbsp;(<b>TSLA</b>) , Cerence&nbsp;(<b>CRNC</b>) and Nuance&nbsp;(<b>NUAN</b>) , the latter based on the potential for larger health-care deals occurring.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫苗的推出以及某种形式的正常化预计将在春季或夏季恢复，两者对Uber的看法最为积极（<b>优步</b>)、Lyft(<b>LYFT</b>)、特斯拉(<b>特斯拉</b>)、塞伦斯(<b>CRNC</b>）和细微差别（<b>暖</b>），后者基于更大的医疗保健交易发生的可能性。</blockquote></p><p>The two have been bullish on tech stocks since March, arguing that a first phase favored cloud/consumer services such as Apple&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>), Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>), Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) &nbsp;and Disney&nbsp;(<b>DIS</b>) ; cybersecurity plays such as Zcaler&nbsp;(<b>ZS</b>), Crowdstrike&nbsp;(<b>CRWD</b>)&nbsp;and Okta&nbsp;(<b>OKTA</b>), and working-from-home stocks such as Zoom Video&nbsp;(<b>ZM</b>), Docusign&nbsp;(<b>DOCU</b>) and Slack&nbsp;(<b>WORK</b>).</p><p><blockquote>自3月份以来，两人一直看好科技股，认为第一阶段有利于苹果等云/消费服务（<b>AAPL</b>)、亚马逊(<b>AMZN</b>）、Netflix（<b>NFLX</b>）和迪士尼（<b>说</b>);Zcaler等网络安全游戏（<b>ZS</b>)、Crowdstrike(<b>CRWD</b>）和Okta（<b>奥克塔</b>），以及Zoom Video等在家工作股票（<b>ZM</b>)、Docusign(<b>多库</b>）和松弛（<b>工作</b>).</blockquote></p><p>Now they say we’re entering a second phase as the economic rebound supports the “fundamental and growth trajectories of well-positioned tech stocks.”</p><p><blockquote>现在他们表示，随着经济反弹支持“定位良好的科技股的基本面和增长轨迹”，我们正在进入第二阶段。</blockquote></p><p>That points to favoring working-from-home stocks, FAANG names and cloud stocks for at least the next six to 12 months, they say, with a fundamental growth driver remaining especially strong around cloud and cybersecurity names as a result of the massive SolarWinds&nbsp;(<b>SWI</b>)&nbsp;hack.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，这表明至少在未来6到12个月内，在家工作股票、FAANG名称和云股票将受到青睐，由于大规模SolarWinds（<b>SWI</b>）黑客。</blockquote></p><p>Roughly 35% of workloads are now on the cloud but that number is projected to hit 55% by 2022, according to Ives and Backe.</p><p><blockquote>Ives和Backe表示，目前大约35%的工作负载位于云上，但预计到2022年这一数字将达到55%。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, the strongest tech plays on an economic recovery are likely to be Uber and Lyft as a return to the office and travel in 2021 should improve both their businesses dramatically and result in these stocks moving much higher in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>最后，经济复苏中最强劲的科技股可能是优步和Lyft，因为2021年重返办公室和旅行应该会显着改善他们的业务，并导致这些股票在2021年大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/tech-stocks-could-rise-25-percent-in-2021-wedbush\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UBER":"优步",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TSLA":"特斯拉","AMZN":"亚马逊","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/tech-stocks-could-rise-25-percent-in-2021-wedbush","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185532673","content_text":"Wedbush names five stocks that could benefit the most as the economy reopens.Next year could be another strong year for tech stocks as the economy starts to grow again with the distribution of a COVID vaccine, according to analysts Daniel Ives and Strecker Backe at Wedbush.While they acknowledge that some tech stocks have already become highly valued -- indeed, the number of downgrades of tech stocks on valuation concerns hasrisen dramaticallyin recent weeks -- the two view this as a “re-rating paradigm” as tech investors hunt for growth.With a vaccine rolling out and some form of normalization expected to return by the spring or summer, the two are most positive on Uber (UBER), Lyft (LYFT), Tesla (TSLA) , Cerence (CRNC) and Nuance (NUAN) , the latter based on the potential for larger health-care deals occurring.The two have been bullish on tech stocks since March, arguing that a first phase favored cloud/consumer services such as Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX)  and Disney (DIS) ; cybersecurity plays such as Zcaler (ZS), Crowdstrike (CRWD) and Okta (OKTA), and working-from-home stocks such as Zoom Video (ZM), Docusign (DOCU) and Slack (WORK).Now they say we’re entering a second phase as the economic rebound supports the “fundamental and growth trajectories of well-positioned tech stocks.”That points to favoring working-from-home stocks, FAANG names and cloud stocks for at least the next six to 12 months, they say, with a fundamental growth driver remaining especially strong around cloud and cybersecurity names as a result of the massive SolarWinds (SWI) hack.Roughly 35% of workloads are now on the cloud but that number is projected to hit 55% by 2022, according to Ives and Backe.Finally, the strongest tech plays on an economic recovery are likely to be Uber and Lyft as a return to the office and travel in 2021 should improve both their businesses dramatically and result in these stocks moving much higher in 2021.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UBER":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}