佬鼠的个人主页 - 老虎社区

佬鼠

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2021-07-06

$滴滴(DIDI)$成本16，只要不退市，我抓到半年都可以

2021-07-07

$滴滴(DIDI)$他们已经很辛苦护盘了，我为他们点个赞

2021-10-15

$老虎证券(TIGR)$不卖就不亏，仓位可能对某些人来说虽然不多，但是对一名学生来说就。。。。。。

2021-06-18

$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$还在犹豫的股友，下个星期或者今天的下半场就看不到11块这个价位了。你们认为呢？

2021-06-22

$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$好戏在后头，卖飞的别哭，看着我们登月吧[看涨] [看涨] [看涨]

2021-07-26

$老虎证券(TIGR)$没有不赚钱股票，只有拿不住的韭菜

2021-06-14

$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$不慌，今晚再加仓

2021-06-29

$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$我相信如果WISH突然暴涨到15.50的话，再次炸爆空头，WISH TO THE MOON了，看还谁敢做空这WISH热门股！WISH加油💪💪💪

2021-10-05

$老虎证券(TIGR)$[看涨]

2021-07-07

$滴滴(DIDI)$我承认自己也是韭菜，可是买了didi“暂时”亏不少，可是相信会起来的，决定做个要赚大钱的韭菜！

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20:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎盘前观察：人类为什么需要打“第3针”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172495574","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"一年两针，会是常态。","content":"<p><b>白宫召开“第3针”发布会——人类为什么需要打“第3针”？</b></p>\n<p>【相关阅读】<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1149820749\" target=\"_blank\">盘前：初请失业金数据好于预期，热门中概股普跌</a></p>\n<p>美国是全球第一个承认疫苗效果会下降。</p>\n<p>从上周开始吹风“第3针”，到昨天召开白宫记者发布会“第3针”，只有不到一周的时间。这足以证明美国当下疫情的强势反弹，逼得美国官方只能迅速推进“第3针”。目前FDA和CDC还没有官宣“第3针”，不过拜登领导下的美国政府，各个部门之间相互合作，一致性很强，不会出现相互打架的现象。FDA和CDC的官宣，很快会到。</p>\n<p>在美国召开“第3针”发布会，是双刃剑——愿意打疫苗的人保护会更好，但是不愿意打疫苗的人会更加不愿意打。美国现在的群体接种短板，还是在于保守派人群不愿意接种。连“第1针”不愿意打——因为保守派人群怀疑是政府阴谋要把芯片植入人体内，现在看到“第3针”又推出，会更加坚定不打的决心。越是政府鼓励的事情，就越要反对，这个现象在美国尤其显著。但有无数实证表明，即使打了2针疫苗的人，如果扔进一群没有打疫苗的人群中，仍旧会有很高的染病风险，最新中招的就是德州州长。为了愿意打针的老百姓的安全，现在不得不推出“第3针”。本来全美一人2针能够解决的疫情，最后被迫变成了有的人1针不打，有的人要打3针。</p>\n<p>这个发布会邀请了4名政客和专家，其中1名是Fauci。能够看出来，Fauci虽然有拜登的大力支持，但拜登政府会刻意淡化他的个人色彩。关于Fauci，美国社会有很多争论，核心原因是Fauci有个别言论前后不符合——比方说关于戴口罩的态度。不过，这个问题不在于Fauci，而是在于人类本身。</p>\n<p>人类存在的几百万年时间，一直都“崇尚”某种精神。从原来的“神”到现在的“科学”，人类的精神寄托始终在一个抽象的东西上面。但“科学”最精髓的地方，在于它敢于认错，修正自己（“神”的领域是不会修正自己）。牛顿的三大定律，纠正了地心说日心说；爱因斯坦的相对论，又纠正了牛顿的三大定律。Fauci作为“科学”的代言人，如果期待他不犯错，这是不可能的。全世界任何一个科学家都会犯错，特别是在新冠疫情爆发的时候，大家都是一无所知。但是Fauci能够修正自己的错误，这就足以证明他是一名合格的科学家。只可惜，人类总是期望一个万能的人引领世界。</p>\n<p>回到这个发布会本身，最核心的要点，和上次我分析“第3针”几乎一模一样。下图左边是昨天的白宫PPT内容，右边是我8月9日的盘后点评，我保证我事先没有看过白宫的PPT。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1e55923ecb20b2fe199b9665a8df699\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>除此之外，这份PPT还总结了不同研究对于疫苗效果衰退的研究。从感染来看，3-6个月之后，mRNA疫苗的保护效果衰减明显（下左）；从住院重病来看，3-6个月之后，mRNA疫苗的保护效果还行（下右）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8076b9a2f691614799301c46f3adfba8\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>关于Delta变种，这个PPT引用的研究比较少，但是承认了两点：（1）疫苗对于Delta变种的有效性大幅下降（一个研究显示从92%下降到64%）；（2）更高水平的抗体，可能对于Delta变种更有效。注意，这个PPT从头到尾，包括演讲人的发言，用的词语都是“可能”。这一方面是出于科学的严谨，一方面也算承认目前疫苗对于Delta变种效果不好。</p>\n<p>总结一下，为什么要打“第3针”？首先是因为抗体水平会自然下降，其次是疫苗对Delta变种效果不好。</p>\n<p>通过这个发布会，我们还需要明白。</p>\n<p>1，和疫苗本身技术无关，人体内的新冠抗体永远会自然下降。这可能是人类基因的一个缺陷。不光是新冠抗体，流感抗体在我们体内，也会自然下降。如果流感疫苗研发了这么久，都找不到一劳永逸的疫苗，那么新冠疫苗同样很有可能也找不到一劳永逸的疫苗。</p>\n<p>2，目前的疫苗不是针对Delta变种开发，所以效果衰减的很明显。医药公司很可能会开放专门针对的Delta变种的疫苗，配合原来疫苗成分，变成“2价新冠疫苗”，但需要时间。可能“2价新冠疫苗”刚出来，新的变种又来了，然后就是“3价新冠疫苗”的研发。</p>\n<p>3，因为找不到一劳永逸的疫苗，所以好的疫苗就是初始抗体水平更高的疫苗。mRNA和灭活疫苗都有抗体衰减的问题，也都会有第3针，第4针的后续。但是，人类要和病毒共存的关键，就在于如何找到一个疫苗补针时间更长的疫苗。如果打一个疫苗1个月之后就要补针，那算不上合格的疫苗。合格的疫苗，应该将补针时间拖到6个月以上。</p>\n<p>一年两针，会是常态。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎盘前观察：人类为什么需要打“第3针”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-19 20:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>白宫召开“第3针”发布会——人类为什么需要打“第3针”？</b></p>\n<p>【相关阅读】<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1149820749\" target=\"_blank\">盘前：初请失业金数据好于预期，热门中概股普跌</a></p>\n<p>美国是全球第一个承认疫苗效果会下降。</p>\n<p>从上周开始吹风“第3针”，到昨天召开白宫记者发布会“第3针”，只有不到一周的时间。这足以证明美国当下疫情的强势反弹，逼得美国官方只能迅速推进“第3针”。目前FDA和CDC还没有官宣“第3针”，不过拜登领导下的美国政府，各个部门之间相互合作，一致性很强，不会出现相互打架的现象。FDA和CDC的官宣，很快会到。</p>\n<p>在美国召开“第3针”发布会，是双刃剑——愿意打疫苗的人保护会更好，但是不愿意打疫苗的人会更加不愿意打。美国现在的群体接种短板，还是在于保守派人群不愿意接种。连“第1针”不愿意打——因为保守派人群怀疑是政府阴谋要把芯片植入人体内，现在看到“第3针”又推出，会更加坚定不打的决心。越是政府鼓励的事情，就越要反对，这个现象在美国尤其显著。但有无数实证表明，即使打了2针疫苗的人，如果扔进一群没有打疫苗的人群中，仍旧会有很高的染病风险，最新中招的就是德州州长。为了愿意打针的老百姓的安全，现在不得不推出“第3针”。本来全美一人2针能够解决的疫情，最后被迫变成了有的人1针不打，有的人要打3针。</p>\n<p>这个发布会邀请了4名政客和专家，其中1名是Fauci。能够看出来，Fauci虽然有拜登的大力支持，但拜登政府会刻意淡化他的个人色彩。关于Fauci，美国社会有很多争论，核心原因是Fauci有个别言论前后不符合——比方说关于戴口罩的态度。不过，这个问题不在于Fauci，而是在于人类本身。</p>\n<p>人类存在的几百万年时间，一直都“崇尚”某种精神。从原来的“神”到现在的“科学”，人类的精神寄托始终在一个抽象的东西上面。但“科学”最精髓的地方，在于它敢于认错，修正自己（“神”的领域是不会修正自己）。牛顿的三大定律，纠正了地心说日心说；爱因斯坦的相对论，又纠正了牛顿的三大定律。Fauci作为“科学”的代言人，如果期待他不犯错，这是不可能的。全世界任何一个科学家都会犯错，特别是在新冠疫情爆发的时候，大家都是一无所知。但是Fauci能够修正自己的错误，这就足以证明他是一名合格的科学家。只可惜，人类总是期望一个万能的人引领世界。</p>\n<p>回到这个发布会本身，最核心的要点，和上次我分析“第3针”几乎一模一样。下图左边是昨天的白宫PPT内容，右边是我8月9日的盘后点评，我保证我事先没有看过白宫的PPT。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1e55923ecb20b2fe199b9665a8df699\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>除此之外，这份PPT还总结了不同研究对于疫苗效果衰退的研究。从感染来看，3-6个月之后，mRNA疫苗的保护效果衰减明显（下左）；从住院重病来看，3-6个月之后，mRNA疫苗的保护效果还行（下右）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8076b9a2f691614799301c46f3adfba8\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>关于Delta变种，这个PPT引用的研究比较少，但是承认了两点：（1）疫苗对于Delta变种的有效性大幅下降（一个研究显示从92%下降到64%）；（2）更高水平的抗体，可能对于Delta变种更有效。注意，这个PPT从头到尾，包括演讲人的发言，用的词语都是“可能”。这一方面是出于科学的严谨，一方面也算承认目前疫苗对于Delta变种效果不好。</p>\n<p>总结一下，为什么要打“第3针”？首先是因为抗体水平会自然下降，其次是疫苗对Delta变种效果不好。</p>\n<p>通过这个发布会，我们还需要明白。</p>\n<p>1，和疫苗本身技术无关，人体内的新冠抗体永远会自然下降。这可能是人类基因的一个缺陷。不光是新冠抗体，流感抗体在我们体内，也会自然下降。如果流感疫苗研发了这么久，都找不到一劳永逸的疫苗，那么新冠疫苗同样很有可能也找不到一劳永逸的疫苗。</p>\n<p>2，目前的疫苗不是针对Delta变种开发，所以效果衰减的很明显。医药公司很可能会开放专门针对的Delta变种的疫苗，配合原来疫苗成分，变成“2价新冠疫苗”，但需要时间。可能“2价新冠疫苗”刚出来，新的变种又来了，然后就是“3价新冠疫苗”的研发。</p>\n<p>3，因为找不到一劳永逸的疫苗，所以好的疫苗就是初始抗体水平更高的疫苗。mRNA和灭活疫苗都有抗体衰减的问题，也都会有第3针，第4针的后续。但是，人类要和病毒共存的关键，就在于如何找到一个疫苗补针时间更长的疫苗。如果打一个疫苗1个月之后就要补针，那算不上合格的疫苗。合格的疫苗，应该将补针时间拖到6个月以上。</p>\n<p>一年两针，会是常态。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e51dca4aea5a4f4975d48e2264c0446","relate_stocks":{"TIGR":"老虎证券",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172495574","content_text":"白宫召开“第3针”发布会——人类为什么需要打“第3针”？\n【相关阅读】盘前：初请失业金数据好于预期，热门中概股普跌\n美国是全球第一个承认疫苗效果会下降。\n从上周开始吹风“第3针”，到昨天召开白宫记者发布会“第3针”，只有不到一周的时间。这足以证明美国当下疫情的强势反弹，逼得美国官方只能迅速推进“第3针”。目前FDA和CDC还没有官宣“第3针”，不过拜登领导下的美国政府，各个部门之间相互合作，一致性很强，不会出现相互打架的现象。FDA和CDC的官宣，很快会到。\n在美国召开“第3针”发布会，是双刃剑——愿意打疫苗的人保护会更好，但是不愿意打疫苗的人会更加不愿意打。美国现在的群体接种短板，还是在于保守派人群不愿意接种。连“第1针”不愿意打——因为保守派人群怀疑是政府阴谋要把芯片植入人体内，现在看到“第3针”又推出，会更加坚定不打的决心。越是政府鼓励的事情，就越要反对，这个现象在美国尤其显著。但有无数实证表明，即使打了2针疫苗的人，如果扔进一群没有打疫苗的人群中，仍旧会有很高的染病风险，最新中招的就是德州州长。为了愿意打针的老百姓的安全，现在不得不推出“第3针”。本来全美一人2针能够解决的疫情，最后被迫变成了有的人1针不打，有的人要打3针。\n这个发布会邀请了4名政客和专家，其中1名是Fauci。能够看出来，Fauci虽然有拜登的大力支持，但拜登政府会刻意淡化他的个人色彩。关于Fauci，美国社会有很多争论，核心原因是Fauci有个别言论前后不符合——比方说关于戴口罩的态度。不过，这个问题不在于Fauci，而是在于人类本身。\n人类存在的几百万年时间，一直都“崇尚”某种精神。从原来的“神”到现在的“科学”，人类的精神寄托始终在一个抽象的东西上面。但“科学”最精髓的地方，在于它敢于认错，修正自己（“神”的领域是不会修正自己）。牛顿的三大定律，纠正了地心说日心说；爱因斯坦的相对论，又纠正了牛顿的三大定律。Fauci作为“科学”的代言人，如果期待他不犯错，这是不可能的。全世界任何一个科学家都会犯错，特别是在新冠疫情爆发的时候，大家都是一无所知。但是Fauci能够修正自己的错误，这就足以证明他是一名合格的科学家。只可惜，人类总是期望一个万能的人引领世界。\n回到这个发布会本身，最核心的要点，和上次我分析“第3针”几乎一模一样。下图左边是昨天的白宫PPT内容，右边是我8月9日的盘后点评，我保证我事先没有看过白宫的PPT。\n\n除此之外，这份PPT还总结了不同研究对于疫苗效果衰退的研究。从感染来看，3-6个月之后，mRNA疫苗的保护效果衰减明显（下左）；从住院重病来看，3-6个月之后，mRNA疫苗的保护效果还行（下右）。\n\n关于Delta变种，这个PPT引用的研究比较少，但是承认了两点：（1）疫苗对于Delta变种的有效性大幅下降（一个研究显示从92%下降到64%）；（2）更高水平的抗体，可能对于Delta变种更有效。注意，这个PPT从头到尾，包括演讲人的发言，用的词语都是“可能”。这一方面是出于科学的严谨，一方面也算承认目前疫苗对于Delta变种效果不好。\n总结一下，为什么要打“第3针”？首先是因为抗体水平会自然下降，其次是疫苗对Delta变种效果不好。\n通过这个发布会，我们还需要明白。\n1，和疫苗本身技术无关，人体内的新冠抗体永远会自然下降。这可能是人类基因的一个缺陷。不光是新冠抗体，流感抗体在我们体内，也会自然下降。如果流感疫苗研发了这么久，都找不到一劳永逸的疫苗，那么新冠疫苗同样很有可能也找不到一劳永逸的疫苗。\n2，目前的疫苗不是针对Delta变种开发，所以效果衰减的很明显。医药公司很可能会开放专门针对的Delta变种的疫苗，配合原来疫苗成分，变成“2价新冠疫苗”，但需要时间。可能“2价新冠疫苗”刚出来，新的变种又来了，然后就是“3价新冠疫苗”的研发。\n3，因为找不到一劳永逸的疫苗，所以好的疫苗就是初始抗体水平更高的疫苗。mRNA和灭活疫苗都有抗体衰减的问题，也都会有第3针，第4针的后续。但是，人类要和病毒共存的关键，就在于如何找到一个疫苗补针时间更长的疫苗。如果打一个疫苗1个月之后就要补针，那算不上合格的疫苗。合格的疫苗，应该将补针时间拖到6个月以上。\n一年两针，会是常态。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"TIGR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":838679647,"gmtCreate":1629405561289,"gmtModify":1631890719009,"author":{"id":"3572494135561408","authorId":"3572494135561408","name":"佬鼠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34a0777f166520de71398b99cc608ae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572494135561408","idStr":"3572494135561408"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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