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2021-06-24

Hi

Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>

2021-06-24

Hi

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2021-06-18

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$!!

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2021-06-18

It takes time but definitely will soar once covid travelling resumes

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2021-06-15

Have confidence in $NIO Inc.(NIO)$

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2021-06-15

$Apple(AAPL)$always first choice

Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股票还是苹果，我每次都选择苹果</blockquote>

2021-06-14

Waiting for $Apple(AAPL)$to soar!

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2021-04-01

$Ebang International Holdings Inc.(EBON)$建仓的机会来了。快上车呀!!

2021-02-19

$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$什么鬼?!一觉醒来直接滚到山脚。是还有深渊吗? 只能在山顶等大家了。。

2021-02-17

$Ebang International Holdings Inc.(EBON)$开始回调了吗?

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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624457324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1170395888?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170395888","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Thin","content":"<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）中国教育股周三早盘多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对冲基金认为 EDU 是现在值得买入的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote>第一季度末，Insider Monkey 追踪的对冲基金中共有 45 家看好该股，较一季度前变化了 5%。下面，您可以查看过去 23 个季度对冲基金对 EDU 情绪的变化。随着聪明资金的头寸经历通常的起伏，存在一个值得注意的对冲基金经理的“上层”，他们正在大幅增加持仓（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p><p><blockquote>新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）的最大股份由比亚迪1资本合伙公司持有，该公司报告称截至12月底持有价值3.505亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是 GQG Partners，头寸为 3.198 亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括 Tiger Global Management LLC、Farallon Capital 和 Alkeon Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Serenity Capital 将最大的权重分配给了新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU），约占其 13F 投资组合的 42.13%。麒麟管理公司也相对非常看好该股，将其 13F 股票投资组合的 18.73% 指定给 EDU。</blockquote></p><p> As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业的兴趣飙升，一些大牌公司自己也在破土动工。由 David Fear 管理的 Thunderbird Partners 在新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）中确立了最有价值的职位。截至本季度末，Thunderbird Partners 已向该公司投资 1670 万美元。Eduardo Costa’sCalixto Global Investors在本季度还对该股进行了1470万美元的投资。其他拥有全新EDU头寸的基金有Matthew Hulsizer的PEAK6 Capital Management、Campbell Wilson的sOld Well Partners和Daryl Smith的Kayak Investment Partners。</blockquote></p><p> Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动——不一定与新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）属于同一行业，但估值相似。这些股票包括堪萨斯城南方航空 (NYSE:KSU)、纽柯公司 (NYSE:NUE)、佛朗哥-内华达公司 (NYSE:FNV)、Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV)、哈特福德金融服务集团公司 (NYSE:HIG)、Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）和 Trip.com Group Limited（纳斯达克股票代码：TCOM）。所有这些股票的市值都与 EDU 的市值最接近。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有 32.1 家对冲基金持有看涨头寸，投资于这些股票的平均金额为 12.39 亿美元。在EDU的案例中，这个数字是21.88亿美元。哈特福德金融服务集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HIG）是该表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）是最不受欢迎的，只有 12 个看涨对冲基金头寸。新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）并不是该组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对 EDU 的总体对冲基金情绪得分为 70.7。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票会获得更高的情绪得分。这是一个稍微积极的信号，但我们宁愿花时间研究对冲基金正在囤积的股票。我们的计算显示，对冲基金中最受欢迎的 5 只股票在 2019 年和 2020 年的回报率为 95.8%，比标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）高出 40 个百分点。截至6月18日，这些股票在2021年上涨了17.4%，再次跑赢大盘6.1个百分点。不幸的是，EDU 远不如这 5 只股票受欢迎，押注 EDU 的对冲基金感到失望，因为该股自 3 月底（截至 6/18）以来的回报率为 -45.8%，表现逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好未来教育：尚未准备好应对新一波市场竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>  <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>  <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>  <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>  <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li> </ul> TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021 财年第二季度收入和 XRS online 增长低于普遍预期。</li><li>2020年，中国K12在线教育市场规模达890亿元，同比增长37.6%。</li><li>与克星新东方不同，好未来对其他公司的投资额自2016年以来持续下降。</li><li>随着新冠肺炎重塑市场，科技巨头开始大举进军数字教育行业。</li><li>我们并不认为该公司能够应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。</li></ul>好未来教育集团（又称明日高级学习）（TAL）是一家专注于中国K12学生的教育公司。它还拥有成人教育、早期教育和育儿以及教育信息化等业务部门。该公司以优质教育和课外辅导为载体体系，在全球范围内提供服务。成立于2003年，2010年在纽约证券交易所上市。</blockquote></p><p> In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，好未来与成立于1993年的新东方（EDU）竞争。可以说，两家公司都引领着中国的教育行业；首先，两者的市场覆盖范围势均力敌。从最新信息来看，新东方在国内共有98个城市和1个国外城市（多伦多）都有活跃的业务。好未来在中国总共90个城市开展业务。</blockquote></p><p> As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着快速增长国家的家长们越来越重视孩子的基础教育，以及电子学习日益普及，广阔的中小学教育和在线教育领域最终成为企业的必争之地。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Decent financial results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>良好的财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p><p><blockquote>好未来 2021 年第二季度的财务业绩并不令人印象深刻，该公司盈利 11 亿美元（同比增长 20.8%），而分析师预期该季度为 11.2 亿美元。不过，该公司公布本季度每股收益为 0.08 美元，比分析师普遍预期的 0.05 美元高出 0.03 美元。由于小学教育领域的激烈竞争，好未来教育集团的股本回报率为0.21%，净利润率为1.35%，而2021年第一季度为8.97%。其中包括近期完成巨轮投资的猿辅导和作业帮等本地纯在线教育公司。与此同时，由于激烈竞争导致客户获取成本上升，非 GAAP 营业利润率从 2020 年第二季度的 9.8% 降至 -1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新市场机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p><p><blockquote>近五六年来，随着国家的支持、技术的发展、资本的涌入，中国的在线K12教育行业得到了快速发展。二零二零年，中国K12在线教育整体市场规模达到约890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</blockquote></p><p> In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p><p><blockquote>2019年，中国K12在线教育的渗透率约为15%。随着2020年初新冠肺炎的袭击，在线教育的优势非常明显。在线K12教育的渗透率在2020年3月达到顶峰。虽然行业在国内仍处于消费普及阶段，但有明显的趋势。作为获取教育信息和服务的新兴方式，这一领域一直表现出长期的巨大需求。因此，行业渗透率未来有巨大的提升空间。根据中国科学院的预测，到2022年，K12在线教育行业的渗透率可能超过55%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p><p><blockquote>好未来拥有871个学习中心（线下辅导中心）、648个培优的事实（好未来培优）中心和128个一对一中心是我们认为TAL不是疫情证明的原因。为了控制 COVID-19 的传播，政府可能会关闭这些中心，这将导致该公司的财务状况大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p><p><blockquote>好未来确实拥有在线教育应用，但它们无法与 VIPKID、猿辅导和作业帮等公司竞争，尽管学而思好未来在线应用的收入贡献从 2020 财年第二季度的 17% 增加到 2021 财年第二季度的 26%。</blockquote></p><p> The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19在中国的重新出现对好未来的线下课堂培训业务构成阻力。虽然疫苗已经出现，但18岁以下的儿童是不允许接种的。当大多数投资者意识到该公司仍然专注于正式或基于课堂的辅导和培训时，TAL 的股价可能很快就会下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p><p><blockquote>好未来自大约九年前上市以来一直保持稳定增长。此后，收入增长了约 30 倍，复合年增长率为 45.7%，平均毛利率高达 50.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>截至 2 月份的上一财年的业绩受到 COVID-19 引发的限制措施的重大影响，这些限制措施在中国很早就开始了。线下运营，主要是核心培优小班，不得不迅速转移到线上平台。结果，由于在线课程售价较低，部分收入损失，第四季度总收入仅增长6.2%，而上年同期为44.1%。学生入学总数仍在上升，同比增长56.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Less venture investment presence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险投资较少</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p><p><blockquote>2017年以来，好未来的投资数量一直在减少。与好未来相比，新东方自2018年以来更加激进。好未来的融资从2016年的24笔大幅下降到2020年的只有两笔。这两项投资是在互动学习SaaS平台UMU和在线儿童数学辅导应用上进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p><p><blockquote><b>科技巨头的进入</b></blockquote></p><p> Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p><p><blockquote>随着夏季在线玩家的竞争变得激烈，销售和营销费用激增。销售和营销费用同比激增 64%，占总收入的 22%，同比增长 4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p><p><blockquote>随着新贵筹集巨额资金，好未来的处境可能会变得更加艰难，因为越来越多拥有巨额营销资金的公司将试图抢占市场份额。除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）、网易（纳斯达克股票代码：NTES）、腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）、字节跳动和百度（纳斯达克股票代码：BIDU）等中国巨头也涉足在线教育业务。好未来需要升级其在线教育业务才能维持运营。</blockquote></p><p> The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p><p><blockquote>教育领域很可能会被这个行业之外的公司瓜分。另外值得一提的是，公司的核心竞争力在于大数据、直播智能等技术在中国在线教育行业的深度应用。就专有的基于学费的技术而言，该公司没有在研发上投入太多资金。现有的进入壁垒很少。理论上，新进入者可以购买师资和市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allegation probe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指控调查</b></blockquote></p><p> In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年 4 月，好未来承认员工不当行为导致销售数据虚增，瑞幸咖啡 (OTCPK:LKNCY) 3.1 亿美元欺诈后进一步阻碍了市场信心，成为丑闻缠身的在美上市中国公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p><p><blockquote>两年前，浑水公司发布了一份报告，称该公司是“一家拥有虚假财务数据的真实企业”。报告称，“好未来在其核心培优业务的财务报表中存在欺诈行为。培优欺诈更难量化，但我们的研究表明，欺诈性多报了公司约 25% 至 30% 的收入”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p><p><blockquote>现在可能不是投资TAL教育的合适时机。我们给予该股中性评级，因为我们认为该公司无法应对即将到来的行业内激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。因此，好未来确实有机会增强线上业务，与新来者和老牌企业竞争，包括作业帮、猿辅导、百度和网易等。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><h3>高途集团：政策悬而未决保持风险回报平衡</h3><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>  <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>  <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>  <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li> </ul> Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高途集团（前身为跟谁学）的长期前景依然光明。</li><li>不利的监管变化仍然是近期前景的主要风险，但更健康的长期动态应该有利于盈利能力。</li><li>替代学生获取渠道和成人教育贡献增加等增长动力也应该有所帮助。</li><li>尽管电动汽车/销量倍数有折扣，但我会推迟启动头寸，因为目前正在等待政策悬而未决的清除。</li></ul>刚刚更名的高途集团（GOTU/跟谁学）最近举办的投资者活动对其运营和高层管理人员的战略进行了有趣的介绍，及时了解了长期前景。特别是，跟谁学强调其持续关注卓越的教学、服务质量和技术投资是关键的差异化因素。然而，政策风险仍然是最大的担忧，如果政府对在线课后辅导领域的干预比预期的更严格，我认为跟谁学的近期增长轨迹将面临重大下行风险。另一方面，它也可能带来更健康的行业动态，这也应该会推动亏损缩小。虽然政策改革的悬而未决使其难以转为看涨，但跟谁学的贴现 c.3 倍电动汽车/销售倍数看起来也要求不高，保持了风险/回报相当平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p><p><blockquote><b>替代学生获取渠道日益增长的重要性</b></blockquote></p><p> Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，跟谁学在2020年第四季度和2021年第一季度的流量获取有所减少，大幅下降。2021 年 1 月至 2 月的销售线索成本降低 20%（低于 2020 年 11 月至 12 月期间）。最近的下降可能是由于今年早些时候教育部（MOE）最近的一次采访引发了在线流量获取的监管不确定性。21年第一季度新入学增长的巨大压力可能也是营收指导低于预期的原因之一。作为回应，管理层正在探索新的学生获取渠道以抵消压力，这包括线下、短视频和直播电子商务渠道等。好消息是，这里的成功扩张可能会使学生获取成本降低 50% 以上，这对利润率前景有利（跟谁学目前在运营层面处于亏损状态）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在这方面，跟谁学并不孤单——其他在线AST玩家也发起了类似的举措，从在线一对一和小班玩家，如51talk（COE）、VIPKID和新东方子公司Koolearn，其大班覆盖范围已达到约100个城市。同样，在线大班课外辅导企业也开始通过合作伙伴关系扩展到线下收购，好未来教育（TAL）子公司学而思最近几个月还与联想（OTCPK：LNVGY）合作。随着作业帮等私营企业也在组建线下流量获取团队，竞争压力可能会对近期前景造成负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成人教育将成为另一个主要增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在中国教育市场，随着人们越来越多地寻求在不确定的就业市场中提升技能，成人教育也成为一个潜在的增长机会。随着收入水平的提高，人们也在教育上花费更多，以便更好地为职业发展做好准备。因此，总账单以24.5%的复合年增长率增长，预计2023财年将以22.4%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到人民币2,650亿元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学上市招股说明书备案</blockquote></p><p> Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，虽然跟谁学目前预计2021财年收入同比增长70-80%，但成人教育业务有望成为收入同比增长+100%的关键增长动力。考虑到成人教育在 2020 财年占跟谁学收入的 10% 以上，我预计随着时间的推移，这一贡献将继续上升。这里的主要增长领域包括英语培训、研究生入学考试准备和金融相关课程。从长远来看，我认为成人教育业务的毛利率甚至可能高于K-12课外辅导，因为入学/导师比例更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在线法规仍然是关键问题</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，课后辅导领域潜在的在线法规令人担忧，可能的措施包括禁止虚假广告、加强对教育营销支出的控制，以及对机构和教师提出更严格的质量要求。另一方面，从长远来看，这些措施也将有利于整个行业的发展，让在线课外辅导玩家能够将更多的资金再投资于提高产品和教学质量。虽然线下/线上市场的新法规仍然缺乏明确性，但我看到了比2018年之前的行业经验更积极的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p><p><blockquote>对营销限制的任何限制都可能在短期内对注册人数和销售增长产生负面影响，但由于营销支出较低，也会有利于利润率。反过来，这应该会改善企业的长期经济效益，并推动下一季度亏损缩小。增长放缓的另一个关键积极因素是，跟谁学将能够专注于提高其产品/服务质量，并提取更多学生终身价值，同时保持其稳健的资产负债表。截至2020年底，跟谁学有一个c。人民币82亿元现金头寸（包括流动性投资），应能抵御任何不可预见的负面政策影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终拍摄</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，营销法规可能会对注册人数和营收增长产生负面影响，但也应该会带来更健康的运营动态并缩小未来的亏损。随着跟谁学还专注于替代收购渠道并进军成人教育等市场，我认为该公司可能会在未来几个季度带来积极的惊喜。虽然跟谁学的股价因Archegos资本事件和政策担忧而受到影响，但其远期电动汽车/销售倍数已大幅下降至c。3 倍，以及与 TAL 和 EDU 等同行相比不断扩大的相对折扣可能意味着负面影响已被定价。然而，在政策悬而未决的问题被解除之前，我认为风险/回报在当前水平上是平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 22:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）中国教育股周三早盘多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对冲基金认为 EDU 是现在值得买入的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote>第一季度末，Insider Monkey 追踪的对冲基金中共有 45 家看好该股，较一季度前变化了 5%。下面，您可以查看过去 23 个季度对冲基金对 EDU 情绪的变化。随着聪明资金的头寸经历通常的起伏，存在一个值得注意的对冲基金经理的“上层”，他们正在大幅增加持仓（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p><p><blockquote>新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）的最大股份由比亚迪1资本合伙公司持有，该公司报告称截至12月底持有价值3.505亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是 GQG Partners，头寸为 3.198 亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括 Tiger Global Management LLC、Farallon Capital 和 Alkeon Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Serenity Capital 将最大的权重分配给了新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU），约占其 13F 投资组合的 42.13%。麒麟管理公司也相对非常看好该股，将其 13F 股票投资组合的 18.73% 指定给 EDU。</blockquote></p><p> As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业的兴趣飙升，一些大牌公司自己也在破土动工。由 David Fear 管理的 Thunderbird Partners 在新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）中确立了最有价值的职位。截至本季度末，Thunderbird Partners 已向该公司投资 1670 万美元。Eduardo Costa’sCalixto Global Investors在本季度还对该股进行了1470万美元的投资。其他拥有全新EDU头寸的基金有Matthew Hulsizer的PEAK6 Capital Management、Campbell Wilson的sOld Well Partners和Daryl Smith的Kayak Investment Partners。</blockquote></p><p> Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动——不一定与新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）属于同一行业，但估值相似。这些股票包括堪萨斯城南方航空 (NYSE:KSU)、纽柯公司 (NYSE:NUE)、佛朗哥-内华达公司 (NYSE:FNV)、Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV)、哈特福德金融服务集团公司 (NYSE:HIG)、Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）和 Trip.com Group Limited（纳斯达克股票代码：TCOM）。所有这些股票的市值都与 EDU 的市值最接近。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有 32.1 家对冲基金持有看涨头寸，投资于这些股票的平均金额为 12.39 亿美元。在EDU的案例中，这个数字是21.88亿美元。哈特福德金融服务集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HIG）是该表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）是最不受欢迎的，只有 12 个看涨对冲基金头寸。新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）并不是该组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对 EDU 的总体对冲基金情绪得分为 70.7。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票会获得更高的情绪得分。这是一个稍微积极的信号，但我们宁愿花时间研究对冲基金正在囤积的股票。我们的计算显示，对冲基金中最受欢迎的 5 只股票在 2019 年和 2020 年的回报率为 95.8%，比标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）高出 40 个百分点。截至6月18日，这些股票在2021年上涨了17.4%，再次跑赢大盘6.1个百分点。不幸的是，EDU 远不如这 5 只股票受欢迎，押注 EDU 的对冲基金感到失望，因为该股自 3 月底（截至 6/18）以来的回报率为 -45.8%，表现逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好未来教育：尚未准备好应对新一波市场竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>  <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>  <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>  <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>  <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li> </ul> TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021 财年第二季度收入和 XRS online 增长低于普遍预期。</li><li>2020年，中国K12在线教育市场规模达890亿元，同比增长37.6%。</li><li>与克星新东方不同，好未来对其他公司的投资额自2016年以来持续下降。</li><li>随着新冠肺炎重塑市场，科技巨头开始大举进军数字教育行业。</li><li>我们并不认为该公司能够应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。</li></ul>好未来教育集团（又称明日高级学习）（TAL）是一家专注于中国K12学生的教育公司。它还拥有成人教育、早期教育和育儿以及教育信息化等业务部门。该公司以优质教育和课外辅导为载体体系，在全球范围内提供服务。成立于2003年，2010年在纽约证券交易所上市。</blockquote></p><p> In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，好未来与成立于1993年的新东方（EDU）竞争。可以说，两家公司都引领着中国的教育行业；首先，两者的市场覆盖范围势均力敌。从最新信息来看，新东方在国内共有98个城市和1个国外城市（多伦多）都有活跃的业务。好未来在中国总共90个城市开展业务。</blockquote></p><p> As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着快速增长国家的家长们越来越重视孩子的基础教育，以及电子学习日益普及，广阔的中小学教育和在线教育领域最终成为企业的必争之地。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Decent financial results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>良好的财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p><p><blockquote>好未来 2021 年第二季度的财务业绩并不令人印象深刻，该公司盈利 11 亿美元（同比增长 20.8%），而分析师预期该季度为 11.2 亿美元。不过，该公司公布本季度每股收益为 0.08 美元，比分析师普遍预期的 0.05 美元高出 0.03 美元。由于小学教育领域的激烈竞争，好未来教育集团的股本回报率为0.21%，净利润率为1.35%，而2021年第一季度为8.97%。其中包括近期完成巨轮投资的猿辅导和作业帮等本地纯在线教育公司。与此同时，由于激烈竞争导致客户获取成本上升，非 GAAP 营业利润率从 2020 年第二季度的 9.8% 降至 -1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新市场机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p><p><blockquote>近五六年来，随着国家的支持、技术的发展、资本的涌入，中国的在线K12教育行业得到了快速发展。二零二零年，中国K12在线教育整体市场规模达到约890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</blockquote></p><p> In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p><p><blockquote>2019年，中国K12在线教育的渗透率约为15%。随着2020年初新冠肺炎的袭击，在线教育的优势非常明显。在线K12教育的渗透率在2020年3月达到顶峰。虽然行业在国内仍处于消费普及阶段，但有明显的趋势。作为获取教育信息和服务的新兴方式，这一领域一直表现出长期的巨大需求。因此，行业渗透率未来有巨大的提升空间。根据中国科学院的预测，到2022年，K12在线教育行业的渗透率可能超过55%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p><p><blockquote>好未来拥有871个学习中心（线下辅导中心）、648个培优的事实（好未来培优）中心和128个一对一中心是我们认为TAL不是疫情证明的原因。为了控制 COVID-19 的传播，政府可能会关闭这些中心，这将导致该公司的财务状况大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p><p><blockquote>好未来确实拥有在线教育应用，但它们无法与 VIPKID、猿辅导和作业帮等公司竞争，尽管学而思好未来在线应用的收入贡献从 2020 财年第二季度的 17% 增加到 2021 财年第二季度的 26%。</blockquote></p><p> The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19在中国的重新出现对好未来的线下课堂培训业务构成阻力。虽然疫苗已经出现，但18岁以下的儿童是不允许接种的。当大多数投资者意识到该公司仍然专注于正式或基于课堂的辅导和培训时，TAL 的股价可能很快就会下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p><p><blockquote>好未来自大约九年前上市以来一直保持稳定增长。此后，收入增长了约 30 倍，复合年增长率为 45.7%，平均毛利率高达 50.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>截至 2 月份的上一财年的业绩受到 COVID-19 引发的限制措施的重大影响，这些限制措施在中国很早就开始了。线下运营，主要是核心培优小班，不得不迅速转移到线上平台。结果，由于在线课程售价较低，部分收入损失，第四季度总收入仅增长6.2%，而上年同期为44.1%。学生入学总数仍在上升，同比增长56.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Less venture investment presence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险投资较少</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p><p><blockquote>2017年以来，好未来的投资数量一直在减少。与好未来相比，新东方自2018年以来更加激进。好未来的融资从2016年的24笔大幅下降到2020年的只有两笔。这两项投资是在互动学习SaaS平台UMU和在线儿童数学辅导应用上进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p><p><blockquote><b>科技巨头的进入</b></blockquote></p><p> Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p><p><blockquote>随着夏季在线玩家的竞争变得激烈，销售和营销费用激增。销售和营销费用同比激增 64%，占总收入的 22%，同比增长 4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p><p><blockquote>随着新贵筹集巨额资金，好未来的处境可能会变得更加艰难，因为越来越多拥有巨额营销资金的公司将试图抢占市场份额。除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）、网易（纳斯达克股票代码：NTES）、腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）、字节跳动和百度（纳斯达克股票代码：BIDU）等中国巨头也涉足在线教育业务。好未来需要升级其在线教育业务才能维持运营。</blockquote></p><p> The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p><p><blockquote>教育领域很可能会被这个行业之外的公司瓜分。另外值得一提的是，公司的核心竞争力在于大数据、直播智能等技术在中国在线教育行业的深度应用。就专有的基于学费的技术而言，该公司没有在研发上投入太多资金。现有的进入壁垒很少。理论上，新进入者可以购买师资和市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allegation probe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指控调查</b></blockquote></p><p> In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年 4 月，好未来承认员工不当行为导致销售数据虚增，瑞幸咖啡 (OTCPK:LKNCY) 3.1 亿美元欺诈后进一步阻碍了市场信心，成为丑闻缠身的在美上市中国公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p><p><blockquote>两年前，浑水公司发布了一份报告，称该公司是“一家拥有虚假财务数据的真实企业”。报告称，“好未来在其核心培优业务的财务报表中存在欺诈行为。培优欺诈更难量化，但我们的研究表明，欺诈性多报了公司约 25% 至 30% 的收入”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p><p><blockquote>现在可能不是投资TAL教育的合适时机。我们给予该股中性评级，因为我们认为该公司无法应对即将到来的行业内激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。因此，好未来确实有机会增强线上业务，与新来者和老牌企业竞争，包括作业帮、猿辅导、百度和网易等。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><h3>高途集团：政策悬而未决保持风险回报平衡</h3><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>  <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>  <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>  <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li> </ul> Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高途集团（前身为跟谁学）的长期前景依然光明。</li><li>不利的监管变化仍然是近期前景的主要风险，但更健康的长期动态应该有利于盈利能力。</li><li>替代学生获取渠道和成人教育贡献增加等增长动力也应该有所帮助。</li><li>尽管电动汽车/销量倍数有折扣，但我会推迟启动头寸，因为目前正在等待政策悬而未决的清除。</li></ul>刚刚更名的高途集团（GOTU/跟谁学）最近举办的投资者活动对其运营和高层管理人员的战略进行了有趣的介绍，及时了解了长期前景。特别是，跟谁学强调其持续关注卓越的教学、服务质量和技术投资是关键的差异化因素。然而，政策风险仍然是最大的担忧，如果政府对在线课后辅导领域的干预比预期的更严格，我认为跟谁学的近期增长轨迹将面临重大下行风险。另一方面，它也可能带来更健康的行业动态，这也应该会推动亏损缩小。虽然政策改革的悬而未决使其难以转为看涨，但跟谁学的贴现 c.3 倍电动汽车/销售倍数看起来也要求不高，保持了风险/回报相当平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p><p><blockquote><b>替代学生获取渠道日益增长的重要性</b></blockquote></p><p> Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，跟谁学在2020年第四季度和2021年第一季度的流量获取有所减少，大幅下降。2021 年 1 月至 2 月的销售线索成本降低 20%（低于 2020 年 11 月至 12 月期间）。最近的下降可能是由于今年早些时候教育部（MOE）最近的一次采访引发了在线流量获取的监管不确定性。21年第一季度新入学增长的巨大压力可能也是营收指导低于预期的原因之一。作为回应，管理层正在探索新的学生获取渠道以抵消压力，这包括线下、短视频和直播电子商务渠道等。好消息是，这里的成功扩张可能会使学生获取成本降低 50% 以上，这对利润率前景有利（跟谁学目前在运营层面处于亏损状态）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在这方面，跟谁学并不孤单——其他在线AST玩家也发起了类似的举措，从在线一对一和小班玩家，如51talk（COE）、VIPKID和新东方子公司Koolearn，其大班覆盖范围已达到约100个城市。同样，在线大班课外辅导企业也开始通过合作伙伴关系扩展到线下收购，好未来教育（TAL）子公司学而思最近几个月还与联想（OTCPK：LNVGY）合作。随着作业帮等私营企业也在组建线下流量获取团队，竞争压力可能会对近期前景造成负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成人教育将成为另一个主要增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在中国教育市场，随着人们越来越多地寻求在不确定的就业市场中提升技能，成人教育也成为一个潜在的增长机会。随着收入水平的提高，人们也在教育上花费更多，以便更好地为职业发展做好准备。因此，总账单以24.5%的复合年增长率增长，预计2023财年将以22.4%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到人民币2,650亿元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学上市招股说明书备案</blockquote></p><p> Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，虽然跟谁学目前预计2021财年收入同比增长70-80%，但成人教育业务有望成为收入同比增长+100%的关键增长动力。考虑到成人教育在 2020 财年占跟谁学收入的 10% 以上，我预计随着时间的推移，这一贡献将继续上升。这里的主要增长领域包括英语培训、研究生入学考试准备和金融相关课程。从长远来看，我认为成人教育业务的毛利率甚至可能高于K-12课外辅导，因为入学/导师比例更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在线法规仍然是关键问题</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，课后辅导领域潜在的在线法规令人担忧，可能的措施包括禁止虚假广告、加强对教育营销支出的控制，以及对机构和教师提出更严格的质量要求。另一方面，从长远来看，这些措施也将有利于整个行业的发展，让在线课外辅导玩家能够将更多的资金再投资于提高产品和教学质量。虽然线下/线上市场的新法规仍然缺乏明确性，但我看到了比2018年之前的行业经验更积极的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p><p><blockquote>对营销限制的任何限制都可能在短期内对注册人数和销售增长产生负面影响，但由于营销支出较低，也会有利于利润率。反过来，这应该会改善企业的长期经济效益，并推动下一季度亏损缩小。增长放缓的另一个关键积极因素是，跟谁学将能够专注于提高其产品/服务质量，并提取更多学生终身价值，同时保持其稳健的资产负债表。截至2020年底，跟谁学有一个c。人民币82亿元现金头寸（包括流动性投资），应能抵御任何不可预见的负面政策影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终拍摄</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，营销法规可能会对注册人数和营收增长产生负面影响，但也应该会带来更健康的运营动态并缩小未来的亏损。随着跟谁学还专注于替代收购渠道并进军成人教育等市场，我认为该公司可能会在未来几个季度带来积极的惊喜。虽然跟谁学的股价因Archegos资本事件和政策担忧而受到影响，但其远期电动汽车/销售倍数已大幅下降至c。3 倍，以及与 TAL 和 EDU 等同行相比不断扩大的相对折扣可能意味着负面影响已被定价。然而，在政策悬而未决的问题被解除之前，我认为风险/回报在当前水平上是平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EDU":"新东方","TAL":"好未来","GOTU":"高途"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170395888","content_text":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?\nAt first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).\nThe largest stake in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.\nAs industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.\nLet's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.\nAs you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.\nTAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry\nSummary\n\nFY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.\nIn 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.\nUnlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.\nWith COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.\nWe do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.\n\nTAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education & parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.\nIn China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.\nAs parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.\nDecent financial results\nTAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.\nNew market opportunities\nIn the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.\nIn 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.\n\nThe fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.\nTAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.\nThe re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.\nTAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.\nResults from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.\nLess venture investment presence\nSince 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.\n\nThe entrance of tech giants\nSales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.\nWith upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.\nThe education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.\nAllegation probe\nIn April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.\nTwo years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"\nBottom line\nThis might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.\nGaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced\nSummary\n\nThe longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).\nAdverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.\nGrowth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.\nDespite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.\n\nNewly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.\nGrowing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels\nWorryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).\n\nSource:GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nHowever, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.\nAdult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver\nWithin the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.\n\nSource:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing\nNotably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.\nOnline Regulations Remain the Key Concern\nLooking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.\nAny restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.\n\nSource: GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nFinal Take\nOverall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.\nData by YCharts","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOTU":0.9,"TAL":0.9,"EDU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121212893,"gmtCreate":1624465225312,"gmtModify":1634005687085,"author":{"id":"3572526958066648","authorId":"3572526958066648","name":"你说我跟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572526958066648","idStr":"3572526958066648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121212893","repostId":"2145531099","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166790465,"gmtCreate":1624024393957,"gmtModify":1634023946579,"author":{"id":"3572526958066648","authorId":"3572526958066648","name":"你说我跟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572526958066648","idStr":"3572526958066648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>!!","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166790465","repostId":"2144250776","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166701653,"gmtCreate":1624024260072,"gmtModify":1634023951019,"author":{"id":"3572526958066648","authorId":"3572526958066648","name":"你说我跟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572526958066648","idStr":"3572526958066648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It takes time but definitely will soar once covid travelling&nbsp; resumes&nbsp;","listText":"It takes time but definitely will soar once covid travelling&nbsp; resumes&nbsp;","text":"It takes time but definitely will soar once covid travelling resumes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166701653","repostId":"1126761138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2079,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187910474,"gmtCreate":1623734133598,"gmtModify":1634029362724,"author":{"id":"3572526958066648","authorId":"3572526958066648","name":"你说我跟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572526958066648","idStr":"3572526958066648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Have confidence in&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>","listText":"Have confidence in&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>","text":"Have confidence in $NIO Inc.(NIO)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187910474","repostId":"1140305126","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187994480,"gmtCreate":1623733630640,"gmtModify":1634029372584,"author":{"id":"3572526958066648","authorId":"3572526958066648","name":"你说我跟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572526958066648","idStr":"3572526958066648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>always first choice&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>always first choice&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$always first choice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187994480","repostId":"1167720481","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167720481","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623723356,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1167720481?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股票还是苹果，我每次都选择苹果</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167720481","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.So what does AAPL do with all of the cash","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.</li>  <li>Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.</li>  <li>Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.</li>  <li>Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3b80a3353ef82f618688f13f74658\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在2021年一直是一项负面投资，而模因股票却爆炸式增长，这是荒谬的。</li><li>投资者有机会在苹果下一次上涨之前购买它，而注意力已转移到追逐模因股票的快速收益。</li><li>苹果预计 2021 财年收入将超过 3000 亿美元，净利润将达到 750 亿美元。</li><li>最终，苹果将被重新投入到党中，他们的数字将被庆祝。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers&nbsp;Cathie Wood&nbsp;of&nbsp;Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in&nbsp;Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，苹果（AAPL）已成为负回报投资，其表现逊于SPDR标普500信托ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）超过15%。2021 年 5 月，Ark Invest 最热门的基金经理之一 Cathie Wood 从 Ark Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) 中出售了近 300,000 股 AAPL 股票。据报道，ARK 一度减持 AAPL 股份，以增加其在 Coinbase (COIN) 和 DraftKings (DKNG) 的头寸。one’s ARK 等主动管理基金每天监督股票的买卖，并可能使用 AAPL 作为现金的替代品。AAPL 的评论褒贬不一，一些人认为其最好的日子还在后头，而另一些人则认为辉煌的日子将无法重现。我认为市场正在给投资者一个机会，因为苹果公司应该会在 2021 年下半年摆脱横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> The market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation &amp; gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.</p><p><blockquote>市场对 AAPL 在第一季度和第二季度的井喷并没有留下深刻印象。AAPL 股价并没有在基本面支撑下上涨，而是一直在下跌。作为一名 AAPL 多头，令人困惑的是，当 AAPL 等公司正在为其有史以来最好的一年奠定基础时，如此多的注意力却集中在模因股票上，而不是像 AAPL 这样的公司上。在阅读了最近关于模因股票的文章的评论后，我写道，然后回顾一些AAPL文章的评论部分，我只是不明白心态是如何转向彻底的投机和赌博而不是投资的。在本财年的前两个季度，AAPL 的每股收益为 3.08 美元，而整个 2020 财年的每股收益为 3.31 美元。AAPL 在许多指标上都在巩固其有史以来最好的一年的基础，但市场并没有留下深刻印象。我相信2021年下半年将会有令人印象深刻的烟火，随着第三季度和第四季度数据的公布，耐心的股东将会得到回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86cb02096dfa9c6da05e350f274aa64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果相信这是市场上最好的投资，并说到做到</b></blockquote></p><p> So what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&amp;D]. In&nbsp;2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&amp;D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.</p><p><blockquote>那么，AAPL如何处理它产生的所有现金呢？首先，他们每年花费数百亿美元来发展业务，同时投资于研发[R&amp;D]。2020年，AAPL在创收成本上花费了1695.6亿美元。他们的劳动成果可以从他们的产品以及他们最新的业务部门（包括服务和可穿戴设备、家居和配件）的增长速度中看出。AAPL在2020年拨款187.5亿美元用于研发，为他们心爱的产品带来了进步。AAPL拥有类似于邪教心态的客户群的原因之一是因为AAPL没有停止创新。他们总是站在技术如何改善个人日常生活的最前沿。</blockquote></p><p> So what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's&nbsp;board&nbsp;authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost&nbsp;$23 billion&nbsp;in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.</p><p><blockquote>那么AAPL的业务费用兑现后剩余的现金怎么办呢？AAPL 押注于自己，并将其股票视为一项投资。自2012财年以来，AAPL已回购了4217亿美元的自有股票。2021年，AAPL回购了430亿美元的股票，表明高层领导认为拥有AAPL股票具有巨大的价值。我记得当内部人士购买他们公司股票时，每个人都很兴奋的日子。对于 AAPL 来说，回购股票只是一个普通的星期一。过去十年，苹果公司回购的股票数量超过了大多数公司的市值增长。AAPL 董事会授权向其现有股票回购计划追加 900 亿美元，AAPL 在 2021 年第二季度向股东返还了近 230 亿美元的资本，没有比这更乐观的了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbaf61374104ed17e51201af591ab7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Meme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票与苹果以及这个市场的疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME &amp; AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站 (GME) 和AMC院线控股公司 (AMC) 在 2021 年上半年的股价升值幅度大幅削弱了 AAPL。不管GME和AMC为什么上涨，事实是GME的回报率超过了1,100%，AMC的回报率超过了2,000%。任何骑过 GME 或 AMC 的人，我都向你们表示祝贺并脱帽致敬。由于 AAPL 今年表现不佳，市场受到了宏伟错觉的推动，而 GME 和 AMC 却绝对上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85258331453c02381346f8b6c676cec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through&nbsp;AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个月AMC发生了什么变化？我可以告诉你，一件事都没有。AMC仍然是一家亏损的公司，几乎不赚钱。我明白投资像 AMC 这样的公司可以由于波动性而产生巨大回报，我并没有否认这一点。如果你能在上面赚钱，无论如何，不要让任何人挡你的路，但要小心。当你通读AMC的损益表时，他们的净利润从未超过4亿美元。在过去十年中，AMC最赚钱的一年是2013年，净利润为3.644亿美元。2019 年，由于 COVID 的影响为零，AMC 创造了 54.7 亿美元的收入，但甚至无法盈利，因为他们亏损了 1.491 亿美元。AMC 上一季度报告显示其资产负债表上的股本为 -23 亿美元。现实情况是，AMC 可以发行额外股票并出售以筹集资金。这将使 AMC 受益，改善其资产负债表并增加手头现金。人们似乎不明白，当一家公司发行更多股票时，最初的一批股票会因为额外的供应量而被稀释，变得一文不值。AMC可以发行股票并加强其资产负债表，但这并不能解决其利润问题。AAPL 每个季度向股东支付的股息比 AMC 过去十年产生的利润还要多，但 AMC 是产生更大回报的股票。</blockquote></p><p> When investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my&nbsp;AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&amp;P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN)&nbsp;has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and&nbsp;Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.</p><p><blockquote>当投资者购买 AMC 股票时，他们购买的是一家每股收益为负的公司。AMC 的市盈率无法在过去 12 个月或远期基础上衡量，但投资者愿意为不存在的收益买单。在我的AMC文章的评论中，人们说基本面并不重要。我知道 AMC 一直是一项技术性交易，但这并不能改变投资者为负收益公司买单的现实。目前，标准普尔的平均市盈率为45.02。如果我使用 AAPL 在 2021 财年前 6 个月产生的每股收益 3.08 美元，他们的市盈率将为 40.55。对于 TTM，AAPL 的每股收益为 4.49 美元，这使得他们的市盈率降至 28.09。目前，投资者为 AAPL 每产生 1 美元的收益支付 28.09 美元，这对于科技行业来说是较低的。亚马逊 (AMZN) 的市盈率为 62.44，微软 (MSFT) 为 34.93，谷歌 (GOOGL) 为 32.05。看涨期权我很守旧，但我喜欢投资盈利的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e06d9bc68454731c984429111ff056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"661\"><span>(Source:multpl.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：multpl.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Laying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阐述苹果的牛市理由以及为什么突破上行是不可避免的</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 拥有一批狂热的追随者，他们被其产品和服务所吸引。2021年前6个月，AAPLhas实现收入2010.2亿美元，毛利润824.1亿美元，净利润523.9亿美元。2021年，AAPL已经创造了2020年总收入的73.23%（2010.2亿美元），然后是2020年总收入的78.51%（824.1亿美元）和2020年总净收入的91.25%（523.9亿美元）。AAPL 有望打破其之前的记录，除非发生深不可测的事情，否则 2021 年将是 AAPL 有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> So the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when&nbsp;AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.</p><p><blockquote>因此，真正的问题是，是什么导致了 AAPL 财务状况的飙升，以及它们是否可持续？部分原因是苹果公司的硬件销量从 iPhone 12 到 iPad 都有所增长。可以说，由于在家工作或远程学习，许多人在疫情期间需要升级他们的技术，但这种逻辑不能用于2021年。4月底，苹果公司公布第二季度业绩时，其iPhone销售额超出预期71.4亿美元，Mac销售额超出预期22亿美元，iPad销售额超出预期20.1亿美元。这些数字是在一年后公布的，虽然苹果公司发布的第一款 5G 手机 iPhone 12 预计会带来顺风，但我相信疫情将社会推向了一个更加重视技术的地方。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In&nbsp;2018 Services&nbsp;generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.</p><p><blockquote>我相信 AAPL 将继续看到强劲的硬件销售，但这只是难题的一部分。服务、可穿戴设备、家居和配件正在成为 AAPL 财务指标的重要组成部分。2018年，服务业创造了397.5亿美元的收入。2019年，服务业增长了65.4亿美元（16.46%），年收入为462.9亿美元。2020年，服务业增长了74.8亿美元（16.15%），收入总计537.7亿美元。2020年前6个月，服务业已经创造了326.6亿美元的收入，占2020年总收入的60.75%。服务持续增长，为 AAPL 创造了一个真正的经常性收入业务部门。服务之美在于AAPL销售的每一件硬件；每个月都有机会通过服务产生额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Services are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>随着 AAPL 实现收入结构多元化，不再仅仅依赖实体产品，服务正在成为 AAPL 的本垒打。截至 2020 财年末，Services 在短短 4 年内年收入增加了 294.2 亿美元（120.83%）。2021年前6个月，服务业创造了326.6亿美元，占2020年年收入的60%。AAPL 有望在 2021 财年实现 600 亿美元的服务收入。展望未来，在不久的将来，服务业可能会产生 1000 亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f044f79f7525038fb94ed27b6a92209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Wearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.</p><p><blockquote>家庭可穿戴设备和配件继续追随 Service 的脚步，因为它已成为比 iPad 和 Mac 更大的收入领域。随着苹果观察的推出，这一类别已经从2016年的111.3亿美元增长到2020年的306.2亿美元。在4个财年中，可穿戴家居和配件的收入增加了244.8亿美元（175.06%），并且增长不断扩大。2021年前6个月，家用可穿戴设备和配件创造了208.1亿美元的收入，占2020年总收入的67.95%。AAPL 肯定有望在 2021 财年从家用可穿戴设备和配件中产生超过 350 亿美元的收入。未来几年，AAPL 有望从家用可穿戴设备和配件中产生 500 亿美元的年收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7071ec652302c6cab585fef4c408d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.</p><p><blockquote>到 2025 财年末，服务很有可能产生超过 780 亿美元的收入，如果家用可穿戴设备和配件都以 10% 的速度增长，则年收入可能超过 440 亿美元。这两个类别的总收入有望超过 1000 亿美元，到 2020 年代末，每年可能会增长到 1500 亿美元。我感到震惊的是，投资者没有大量涌入 AAPL，更可笑的是，对 AAPL 数据的强调没有得到更详细的讨论。当服务收入达到 1000 亿美元，家用可穿戴设备和配件收入达到 500 亿美元时，AAPL 的未来价值是多少？在过去的十年里，AAPL不断创新和改变技术的使用方式，我拒绝相信他们最好的日子已经过去。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cd231b75d9f875329f6713debe846b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票给一些投资者带来了极大的兴奋，而他们却让另一大群人摇头。除了赌博之外，我无法理解当你可以购买出售的 AAPL 股票时，为什么人们还要投资 AMC。苹果公司本应暴涨，但其最近两个季度的井喷并没有改变局面。我相信一旦第三季度数据公布，情况就会有所不同。我们将再次发现，AAPL 继续购买数十亿美元的股票，同时报告称，在 9 个月内，他们产生的净利润超过了 2020 年全年。在运营的前6个月，AAPL创造了2010.2亿美元的收入和523.9亿美元的净利润，同时返还了532亿美元的回购和股息。投资者有机会在下一次上涨之前购买更多 AAPL。我是 AAPL 的股东，我计划在第三季度财报公布之前购买更多股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股票还是苹果，我每次都选择苹果</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股票还是苹果，我每次都选择苹果</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 10:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.</li>  <li>Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.</li>  <li>Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.</li>  <li>Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3b80a3353ef82f618688f13f74658\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在2021年一直是一项负面投资，而模因股票却爆炸式增长，这是荒谬的。</li><li>投资者有机会在苹果下一次上涨之前购买它，而注意力已转移到追逐模因股票的快速收益。</li><li>苹果预计 2021 财年收入将超过 3000 亿美元，净利润将达到 750 亿美元。</li><li>最终，苹果将被重新投入到党中，他们的数字将被庆祝。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers&nbsp;Cathie Wood&nbsp;of&nbsp;Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in&nbsp;Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，苹果（AAPL）已成为负回报投资，其表现逊于SPDR标普500信托ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）超过15%。2021 年 5 月，Ark Invest 最热门的基金经理之一 Cathie Wood 从 Ark Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) 中出售了近 300,000 股 AAPL 股票。据报道，ARK 一度减持 AAPL 股份，以增加其在 Coinbase (COIN) 和 DraftKings (DKNG) 的头寸。one’s ARK 等主动管理基金每天监督股票的买卖，并可能使用 AAPL 作为现金的替代品。AAPL 的评论褒贬不一，一些人认为其最好的日子还在后头，而另一些人则认为辉煌的日子将无法重现。我认为市场正在给投资者一个机会，因为苹果公司应该会在 2021 年下半年摆脱横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> The market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation &amp; gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.</p><p><blockquote>市场对 AAPL 在第一季度和第二季度的井喷并没有留下深刻印象。AAPL 股价并没有在基本面支撑下上涨，而是一直在下跌。作为一名 AAPL 多头，令人困惑的是，当 AAPL 等公司正在为其有史以来最好的一年奠定基础时，如此多的注意力却集中在模因股票上，而不是像 AAPL 这样的公司上。在阅读了最近关于模因股票的文章的评论后，我写道，然后回顾一些AAPL文章的评论部分，我只是不明白心态是如何转向彻底的投机和赌博而不是投资的。在本财年的前两个季度，AAPL 的每股收益为 3.08 美元，而整个 2020 财年的每股收益为 3.31 美元。AAPL 在许多指标上都在巩固其有史以来最好的一年的基础，但市场并没有留下深刻印象。我相信2021年下半年将会有令人印象深刻的烟火，随着第三季度和第四季度数据的公布，耐心的股东将会得到回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86cb02096dfa9c6da05e350f274aa64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果相信这是市场上最好的投资，并说到做到</b></blockquote></p><p> So what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&amp;D]. In&nbsp;2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&amp;D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.</p><p><blockquote>那么，AAPL如何处理它产生的所有现金呢？首先，他们每年花费数百亿美元来发展业务，同时投资于研发[R&amp;D]。2020年，AAPL在创收成本上花费了1695.6亿美元。他们的劳动成果可以从他们的产品以及他们最新的业务部门（包括服务和可穿戴设备、家居和配件）的增长速度中看出。AAPL在2020年拨款187.5亿美元用于研发，为他们心爱的产品带来了进步。AAPL拥有类似于邪教心态的客户群的原因之一是因为AAPL没有停止创新。他们总是站在技术如何改善个人日常生活的最前沿。</blockquote></p><p> So what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's&nbsp;board&nbsp;authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost&nbsp;$23 billion&nbsp;in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.</p><p><blockquote>那么AAPL的业务费用兑现后剩余的现金怎么办呢？AAPL 押注于自己，并将其股票视为一项投资。自2012财年以来，AAPL已回购了4217亿美元的自有股票。2021年，AAPL回购了430亿美元的股票，表明高层领导认为拥有AAPL股票具有巨大的价值。我记得当内部人士购买他们公司股票时，每个人都很兴奋的日子。对于 AAPL 来说，回购股票只是一个普通的星期一。过去十年，苹果公司回购的股票数量超过了大多数公司的市值增长。AAPL 董事会授权向其现有股票回购计划追加 900 亿美元，AAPL 在 2021 年第二季度向股东返还了近 230 亿美元的资本，没有比这更乐观的了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbaf61374104ed17e51201af591ab7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Meme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票与苹果以及这个市场的疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME &amp; AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站 (GME) 和AMC院线控股公司 (AMC) 在 2021 年上半年的股价升值幅度大幅削弱了 AAPL。不管GME和AMC为什么上涨，事实是GME的回报率超过了1,100%，AMC的回报率超过了2,000%。任何骑过 GME 或 AMC 的人，我都向你们表示祝贺并脱帽致敬。由于 AAPL 今年表现不佳，市场受到了宏伟错觉的推动，而 GME 和 AMC 却绝对上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85258331453c02381346f8b6c676cec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through&nbsp;AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个月AMC发生了什么变化？我可以告诉你，一件事都没有。AMC仍然是一家亏损的公司，几乎不赚钱。我明白投资像 AMC 这样的公司可以由于波动性而产生巨大回报，我并没有否认这一点。如果你能在上面赚钱，无论如何，不要让任何人挡你的路，但要小心。当你通读AMC的损益表时，他们的净利润从未超过4亿美元。在过去十年中，AMC最赚钱的一年是2013年，净利润为3.644亿美元。2019 年，由于 COVID 的影响为零，AMC 创造了 54.7 亿美元的收入，但甚至无法盈利，因为他们亏损了 1.491 亿美元。AMC 上一季度报告显示其资产负债表上的股本为 -23 亿美元。现实情况是，AMC 可以发行额外股票并出售以筹集资金。这将使 AMC 受益，改善其资产负债表并增加手头现金。人们似乎不明白，当一家公司发行更多股票时，最初的一批股票会因为额外的供应量而被稀释，变得一文不值。AMC可以发行股票并加强其资产负债表，但这并不能解决其利润问题。AAPL 每个季度向股东支付的股息比 AMC 过去十年产生的利润还要多，但 AMC 是产生更大回报的股票。</blockquote></p><p> When investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my&nbsp;AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&amp;P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN)&nbsp;has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and&nbsp;Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.</p><p><blockquote>当投资者购买 AMC 股票时，他们购买的是一家每股收益为负的公司。AMC 的市盈率无法在过去 12 个月或远期基础上衡量，但投资者愿意为不存在的收益买单。在我的AMC文章的评论中，人们说基本面并不重要。我知道 AMC 一直是一项技术性交易，但这并不能改变投资者为负收益公司买单的现实。目前，标准普尔的平均市盈率为45.02。如果我使用 AAPL 在 2021 财年前 6 个月产生的每股收益 3.08 美元，他们的市盈率将为 40.55。对于 TTM，AAPL 的每股收益为 4.49 美元，这使得他们的市盈率降至 28.09。目前，投资者为 AAPL 每产生 1 美元的收益支付 28.09 美元，这对于科技行业来说是较低的。亚马逊 (AMZN) 的市盈率为 62.44，微软 (MSFT) 为 34.93，谷歌 (GOOGL) 为 32.05。看涨期权我很守旧，但我喜欢投资盈利的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e06d9bc68454731c984429111ff056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"661\"><span>(Source:multpl.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：multpl.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Laying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阐述苹果的牛市理由以及为什么突破上行是不可避免的</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 拥有一批狂热的追随者，他们被其产品和服务所吸引。2021年前6个月，AAPLhas实现收入2010.2亿美元，毛利润824.1亿美元，净利润523.9亿美元。2021年，AAPL已经创造了2020年总收入的73.23%（2010.2亿美元），然后是2020年总收入的78.51%（824.1亿美元）和2020年总净收入的91.25%（523.9亿美元）。AAPL 有望打破其之前的记录，除非发生深不可测的事情，否则 2021 年将是 AAPL 有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> So the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when&nbsp;AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.</p><p><blockquote>因此，真正的问题是，是什么导致了 AAPL 财务状况的飙升，以及它们是否可持续？部分原因是苹果公司的硬件销量从 iPhone 12 到 iPad 都有所增长。可以说，由于在家工作或远程学习，许多人在疫情期间需要升级他们的技术，但这种逻辑不能用于2021年。4月底，苹果公司公布第二季度业绩时，其iPhone销售额超出预期71.4亿美元，Mac销售额超出预期22亿美元，iPad销售额超出预期20.1亿美元。这些数字是在一年后公布的，虽然苹果公司发布的第一款 5G 手机 iPhone 12 预计会带来顺风，但我相信疫情将社会推向了一个更加重视技术的地方。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In&nbsp;2018 Services&nbsp;generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.</p><p><blockquote>我相信 AAPL 将继续看到强劲的硬件销售，但这只是难题的一部分。服务、可穿戴设备、家居和配件正在成为 AAPL 财务指标的重要组成部分。2018年，服务业创造了397.5亿美元的收入。2019年，服务业增长了65.4亿美元（16.46%），年收入为462.9亿美元。2020年，服务业增长了74.8亿美元（16.15%），收入总计537.7亿美元。2020年前6个月，服务业已经创造了326.6亿美元的收入，占2020年总收入的60.75%。服务持续增长，为 AAPL 创造了一个真正的经常性收入业务部门。服务之美在于AAPL销售的每一件硬件；每个月都有机会通过服务产生额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Services are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>随着 AAPL 实现收入结构多元化，不再仅仅依赖实体产品，服务正在成为 AAPL 的本垒打。截至 2020 财年末，Services 在短短 4 年内年收入增加了 294.2 亿美元（120.83%）。2021年前6个月，服务业创造了326.6亿美元，占2020年年收入的60%。AAPL 有望在 2021 财年实现 600 亿美元的服务收入。展望未来，在不久的将来，服务业可能会产生 1000 亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f044f79f7525038fb94ed27b6a92209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Wearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.</p><p><blockquote>家庭可穿戴设备和配件继续追随 Service 的脚步，因为它已成为比 iPad 和 Mac 更大的收入领域。随着苹果观察的推出，这一类别已经从2016年的111.3亿美元增长到2020年的306.2亿美元。在4个财年中，可穿戴家居和配件的收入增加了244.8亿美元（175.06%），并且增长不断扩大。2021年前6个月，家用可穿戴设备和配件创造了208.1亿美元的收入，占2020年总收入的67.95%。AAPL 肯定有望在 2021 财年从家用可穿戴设备和配件中产生超过 350 亿美元的收入。未来几年，AAPL 有望从家用可穿戴设备和配件中产生 500 亿美元的年收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7071ec652302c6cab585fef4c408d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.</p><p><blockquote>到 2025 财年末，服务很有可能产生超过 780 亿美元的收入，如果家用可穿戴设备和配件都以 10% 的速度增长，则年收入可能超过 440 亿美元。这两个类别的总收入有望超过 1000 亿美元，到 2020 年代末，每年可能会增长到 1500 亿美元。我感到震惊的是，投资者没有大量涌入 AAPL，更可笑的是，对 AAPL 数据的强调没有得到更详细的讨论。当服务收入达到 1000 亿美元，家用可穿戴设备和配件收入达到 500 亿美元时，AAPL 的未来价值是多少？在过去的十年里，AAPL不断创新和改变技术的使用方式，我拒绝相信他们最好的日子已经过去。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cd231b75d9f875329f6713debe846b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票给一些投资者带来了极大的兴奋，而他们却让另一大群人摇头。除了赌博之外，我无法理解当你可以购买出售的 AAPL 股票时，为什么人们还要投资 AMC。苹果公司本应暴涨，但其最近两个季度的井喷并没有改变局面。我相信一旦第三季度数据公布，情况就会有所不同。我们将再次发现，AAPL 继续购买数十亿美元的股票，同时报告称，在 9 个月内，他们产生的净利润超过了 2020 年全年。在运营的前6个月，AAPL创造了2010.2亿美元的收入和523.9亿美元的净利润，同时返还了532亿美元的回购和股息。投资者有机会在下一次上涨之前购买更多 AAPL。我是 AAPL 的股东，我计划在第三季度财报公布之前购买更多股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167720481","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.\nInvestors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.\nApple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.\nEventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nIn 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.\nThe market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation & gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nApple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is\nSo what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&D]. In 2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.\nSo what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's board authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost $23 billion in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.\n(Source: Apple)\nMeme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market\nGameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME & AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nWhat's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.\nWhen investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN) has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.\n(Source:multpl.com)\nLaying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable\nAAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.\nSo the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.\nI believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In 2018 Services generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.\nServices are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nWearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nBy the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.\n(Source: Apple)\nConclusion\nThe meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2073,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184959343,"gmtCreate":1623681714083,"gmtModify":1634030132814,"author":{"id":"3572526958066648","authorId":"3572526958066648","name":"你说我跟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572526958066648","idStr":"3572526958066648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Waiting for&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>to soar!","listText":"Waiting for&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>to soar!","text":"Waiting for $Apple(AAPL)$to 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Inc.(EBON)$建仓的机会来了。快上车呀!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357505813","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387068107,"gmtCreate":1613700281309,"gmtModify":1631885327460,"author":{"id":"3572526958066648","authorId":"3572526958066648","name":"你说我跟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572526958066648","idStr":"3572526958066648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$</a>什么鬼?!一觉醒来直接滚到山脚。 是还有深渊吗? 只能在山顶等大家了。。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$</a>什么鬼?!一觉醒来直接滚到山脚。 是还有深渊吗? 只能在山顶等大家了。。","text":"$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$什么鬼?!一觉醒来直接滚到山脚。 是还有深渊吗? 只能在山顶等大家了。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387068107","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385921190,"gmtCreate":1613494852010,"gmtModify":1634553413377,"author":{"id":"3572526958066648","authorId":"3572526958066648","name":"你说我跟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572526958066648","idStr":"3572526958066648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBON\">$Ebang International Holdings Inc.(EBON)$</a>开始回调了吗?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBON\">$Ebang International Holdings Inc.(EBON)$</a>开始回调了吗?","text":"$Ebang International Holdings Inc.(EBON)$开始回调了吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385921190","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":121212893,"gmtCreate":1624465225312,"gmtModify":1634005687085,"author":{"id":"3572526958066648","authorId":"3572526958066648","name":"你说我跟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572526958066648","idStr":"3572526958066648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121212893","repostId":"2145531099","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184959343,"gmtCreate":1623681714083,"gmtModify":1634030132814,"author":{"id":"3572526958066648","authorId":"3572526958066648","name":"你说我跟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572526958066648","idStr":"3572526958066648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Waiting 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Inc.(EBON)$</a>建仓的机会来了。快上车呀!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBON\">$Ebang International Holdings Inc.(EBON)$</a>建仓的机会来了。快上车呀!!","text":"$Ebang International Holdings Inc.(EBON)$建仓的机会来了。快上车呀!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357505813","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385921190,"gmtCreate":1613494852010,"gmtModify":1634553413377,"author":{"id":"3572526958066648","authorId":"3572526958066648","name":"你说我跟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572526958066648","idStr":"3572526958066648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBON\">$Ebang International Holdings Inc.(EBON)$</a>开始回调了吗?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBON\">$Ebang International Holdings Inc.(EBON)$</a>开始回调了吗?","text":"$Ebang International Holdings Inc.(EBON)$开始回调了吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385921190","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":187910474,"gmtCreate":1623734133598,"gmtModify":1634029362724,"author":{"id":"3572526958066648","authorId":"3572526958066648","name":"你说我跟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572526958066648","idStr":"3572526958066648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Have confidence in&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>","listText":"Have confidence in&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>","text":"Have confidence in $NIO Inc.(NIO)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187910474","repostId":"1140305126","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387068107,"gmtCreate":1613700281309,"gmtModify":1631885327460,"author":{"id":"3572526958066648","authorId":"3572526958066648","name":"你说我跟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572526958066648","idStr":"3572526958066648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$</a>什么鬼?!一觉醒来直接滚到山脚。 是还有深渊吗? 只能在山顶等大家了。。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$</a>什么鬼?!一觉醒来直接滚到山脚。 是还有深渊吗? 只能在山顶等大家了。。","text":"$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$什么鬼?!一觉醒来直接滚到山脚。 是还有深渊吗? 只能在山顶等大家了。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387068107","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166790465,"gmtCreate":1624024393957,"gmtModify":1634023946579,"author":{"id":"3572526958066648","authorId":"3572526958066648","name":"你说我跟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572526958066648","idStr":"3572526958066648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>!!","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166790465","repostId":"2144250776","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166701653,"gmtCreate":1624024260072,"gmtModify":1634023951019,"author":{"id":"3572526958066648","authorId":"3572526958066648","name":"你说我跟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572526958066648","idStr":"3572526958066648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It takes time but definitely will soar once covid travelling&nbsp; resumes&nbsp;","listText":"It takes time but definitely will soar once covid travelling&nbsp; resumes&nbsp;","text":"It takes time but definitely will soar once covid travelling resumes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166701653","repostId":"1126761138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2079,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121215379,"gmtCreate":1624465268691,"gmtModify":1634005686661,"author":{"id":"3572526958066648","authorId":"3572526958066648","name":"你说我跟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572526958066648","idStr":"3572526958066648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121215379","repostId":"1170395888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170395888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624457324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1170395888?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170395888","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Thin","content":"<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）中国教育股周三早盘多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对冲基金认为 EDU 是现在值得买入的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote>第一季度末，Insider Monkey 追踪的对冲基金中共有 45 家看好该股，较一季度前变化了 5%。下面，您可以查看过去 23 个季度对冲基金对 EDU 情绪的变化。随着聪明资金的头寸经历通常的起伏，存在一个值得注意的对冲基金经理的“上层”，他们正在大幅增加持仓（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p><p><blockquote>新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）的最大股份由比亚迪1资本合伙公司持有，该公司报告称截至12月底持有价值3.505亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是 GQG Partners，头寸为 3.198 亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括 Tiger Global Management LLC、Farallon Capital 和 Alkeon Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Serenity Capital 将最大的权重分配给了新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU），约占其 13F 投资组合的 42.13%。麒麟管理公司也相对非常看好该股，将其 13F 股票投资组合的 18.73% 指定给 EDU。</blockquote></p><p> As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业的兴趣飙升，一些大牌公司自己也在破土动工。由 David Fear 管理的 Thunderbird Partners 在新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）中确立了最有价值的职位。截至本季度末，Thunderbird Partners 已向该公司投资 1670 万美元。Eduardo Costa’sCalixto Global Investors在本季度还对该股进行了1470万美元的投资。其他拥有全新EDU头寸的基金有Matthew Hulsizer的PEAK6 Capital Management、Campbell Wilson的sOld Well Partners和Daryl Smith的Kayak Investment Partners。</blockquote></p><p> Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动——不一定与新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）属于同一行业，但估值相似。这些股票包括堪萨斯城南方航空 (NYSE:KSU)、纽柯公司 (NYSE:NUE)、佛朗哥-内华达公司 (NYSE:FNV)、Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV)、哈特福德金融服务集团公司 (NYSE:HIG)、Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）和 Trip.com Group Limited（纳斯达克股票代码：TCOM）。所有这些股票的市值都与 EDU 的市值最接近。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有 32.1 家对冲基金持有看涨头寸，投资于这些股票的平均金额为 12.39 亿美元。在EDU的案例中，这个数字是21.88亿美元。哈特福德金融服务集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HIG）是该表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）是最不受欢迎的，只有 12 个看涨对冲基金头寸。新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）并不是该组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对 EDU 的总体对冲基金情绪得分为 70.7。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票会获得更高的情绪得分。这是一个稍微积极的信号，但我们宁愿花时间研究对冲基金正在囤积的股票。我们的计算显示，对冲基金中最受欢迎的 5 只股票在 2019 年和 2020 年的回报率为 95.8%，比标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）高出 40 个百分点。截至6月18日，这些股票在2021年上涨了17.4%，再次跑赢大盘6.1个百分点。不幸的是，EDU 远不如这 5 只股票受欢迎，押注 EDU 的对冲基金感到失望，因为该股自 3 月底（截至 6/18）以来的回报率为 -45.8%，表现逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好未来教育：尚未准备好应对新一波市场竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>  <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>  <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>  <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>  <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li> </ul> TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021 财年第二季度收入和 XRS online 增长低于普遍预期。</li><li>2020年，中国K12在线教育市场规模达890亿元，同比增长37.6%。</li><li>与克星新东方不同，好未来对其他公司的投资额自2016年以来持续下降。</li><li>随着新冠肺炎重塑市场，科技巨头开始大举进军数字教育行业。</li><li>我们并不认为该公司能够应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。</li></ul>好未来教育集团（又称明日高级学习）（TAL）是一家专注于中国K12学生的教育公司。它还拥有成人教育、早期教育和育儿以及教育信息化等业务部门。该公司以优质教育和课外辅导为载体体系，在全球范围内提供服务。成立于2003年，2010年在纽约证券交易所上市。</blockquote></p><p> In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，好未来与成立于1993年的新东方（EDU）竞争。可以说，两家公司都引领着中国的教育行业；首先，两者的市场覆盖范围势均力敌。从最新信息来看，新东方在国内共有98个城市和1个国外城市（多伦多）都有活跃的业务。好未来在中国总共90个城市开展业务。</blockquote></p><p> As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着快速增长国家的家长们越来越重视孩子的基础教育，以及电子学习日益普及，广阔的中小学教育和在线教育领域最终成为企业的必争之地。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Decent financial results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>良好的财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p><p><blockquote>好未来 2021 年第二季度的财务业绩并不令人印象深刻，该公司盈利 11 亿美元（同比增长 20.8%），而分析师预期该季度为 11.2 亿美元。不过，该公司公布本季度每股收益为 0.08 美元，比分析师普遍预期的 0.05 美元高出 0.03 美元。由于小学教育领域的激烈竞争，好未来教育集团的股本回报率为0.21%，净利润率为1.35%，而2021年第一季度为8.97%。其中包括近期完成巨轮投资的猿辅导和作业帮等本地纯在线教育公司。与此同时，由于激烈竞争导致客户获取成本上升，非 GAAP 营业利润率从 2020 年第二季度的 9.8% 降至 -1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新市场机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p><p><blockquote>近五六年来，随着国家的支持、技术的发展、资本的涌入，中国的在线K12教育行业得到了快速发展。二零二零年，中国K12在线教育整体市场规模达到约890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</blockquote></p><p> In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p><p><blockquote>2019年，中国K12在线教育的渗透率约为15%。随着2020年初新冠肺炎的袭击，在线教育的优势非常明显。在线K12教育的渗透率在2020年3月达到顶峰。虽然行业在国内仍处于消费普及阶段，但有明显的趋势。作为获取教育信息和服务的新兴方式，这一领域一直表现出长期的巨大需求。因此，行业渗透率未来有巨大的提升空间。根据中国科学院的预测，到2022年，K12在线教育行业的渗透率可能超过55%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p><p><blockquote>好未来拥有871个学习中心（线下辅导中心）、648个培优的事实（好未来培优）中心和128个一对一中心是我们认为TAL不是疫情证明的原因。为了控制 COVID-19 的传播，政府可能会关闭这些中心，这将导致该公司的财务状况大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p><p><blockquote>好未来确实拥有在线教育应用，但它们无法与 VIPKID、猿辅导和作业帮等公司竞争，尽管学而思好未来在线应用的收入贡献从 2020 财年第二季度的 17% 增加到 2021 财年第二季度的 26%。</blockquote></p><p> The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19在中国的重新出现对好未来的线下课堂培训业务构成阻力。虽然疫苗已经出现，但18岁以下的儿童是不允许接种的。当大多数投资者意识到该公司仍然专注于正式或基于课堂的辅导和培训时，TAL 的股价可能很快就会下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p><p><blockquote>好未来自大约九年前上市以来一直保持稳定增长。此后，收入增长了约 30 倍，复合年增长率为 45.7%，平均毛利率高达 50.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>截至 2 月份的上一财年的业绩受到 COVID-19 引发的限制措施的重大影响，这些限制措施在中国很早就开始了。线下运营，主要是核心培优小班，不得不迅速转移到线上平台。结果，由于在线课程售价较低，部分收入损失，第四季度总收入仅增长6.2%，而上年同期为44.1%。学生入学总数仍在上升，同比增长56.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Less venture investment presence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险投资较少</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p><p><blockquote>2017年以来，好未来的投资数量一直在减少。与好未来相比，新东方自2018年以来更加激进。好未来的融资从2016年的24笔大幅下降到2020年的只有两笔。这两项投资是在互动学习SaaS平台UMU和在线儿童数学辅导应用上进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p><p><blockquote><b>科技巨头的进入</b></blockquote></p><p> Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p><p><blockquote>随着夏季在线玩家的竞争变得激烈，销售和营销费用激增。销售和营销费用同比激增 64%，占总收入的 22%，同比增长 4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p><p><blockquote>随着新贵筹集巨额资金，好未来的处境可能会变得更加艰难，因为越来越多拥有巨额营销资金的公司将试图抢占市场份额。除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）、网易（纳斯达克股票代码：NTES）、腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）、字节跳动和百度（纳斯达克股票代码：BIDU）等中国巨头也涉足在线教育业务。好未来需要升级其在线教育业务才能维持运营。</blockquote></p><p> The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p><p><blockquote>教育领域很可能会被这个行业之外的公司瓜分。另外值得一提的是，公司的核心竞争力在于大数据、直播智能等技术在中国在线教育行业的深度应用。就专有的基于学费的技术而言，该公司没有在研发上投入太多资金。现有的进入壁垒很少。理论上，新进入者可以购买师资和市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allegation probe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指控调查</b></blockquote></p><p> In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年 4 月，好未来承认员工不当行为导致销售数据虚增，瑞幸咖啡 (OTCPK:LKNCY) 3.1 亿美元欺诈后进一步阻碍了市场信心，成为丑闻缠身的在美上市中国公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p><p><blockquote>两年前，浑水公司发布了一份报告，称该公司是“一家拥有虚假财务数据的真实企业”。报告称，“好未来在其核心培优业务的财务报表中存在欺诈行为。培优欺诈更难量化，但我们的研究表明，欺诈性多报了公司约 25% 至 30% 的收入”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p><p><blockquote>现在可能不是投资TAL教育的合适时机。我们给予该股中性评级，因为我们认为该公司无法应对即将到来的行业内激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。因此，好未来确实有机会增强线上业务，与新来者和老牌企业竞争，包括作业帮、猿辅导、百度和网易等。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><h3>高途集团：政策悬而未决保持风险回报平衡</h3><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>  <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>  <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>  <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li> </ul> Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高途集团（前身为跟谁学）的长期前景依然光明。</li><li>不利的监管变化仍然是近期前景的主要风险，但更健康的长期动态应该有利于盈利能力。</li><li>替代学生获取渠道和成人教育贡献增加等增长动力也应该有所帮助。</li><li>尽管电动汽车/销量倍数有折扣，但我会推迟启动头寸，因为目前正在等待政策悬而未决的清除。</li></ul>刚刚更名的高途集团（GOTU/跟谁学）最近举办的投资者活动对其运营和高层管理人员的战略进行了有趣的介绍，及时了解了长期前景。特别是，跟谁学强调其持续关注卓越的教学、服务质量和技术投资是关键的差异化因素。然而，政策风险仍然是最大的担忧，如果政府对在线课后辅导领域的干预比预期的更严格，我认为跟谁学的近期增长轨迹将面临重大下行风险。另一方面，它也可能带来更健康的行业动态，这也应该会推动亏损缩小。虽然政策改革的悬而未决使其难以转为看涨，但跟谁学的贴现 c.3 倍电动汽车/销售倍数看起来也要求不高，保持了风险/回报相当平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p><p><blockquote><b>替代学生获取渠道日益增长的重要性</b></blockquote></p><p> Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，跟谁学在2020年第四季度和2021年第一季度的流量获取有所减少，大幅下降。2021 年 1 月至 2 月的销售线索成本降低 20%（低于 2020 年 11 月至 12 月期间）。最近的下降可能是由于今年早些时候教育部（MOE）最近的一次采访引发了在线流量获取的监管不确定性。21年第一季度新入学增长的巨大压力可能也是营收指导低于预期的原因之一。作为回应，管理层正在探索新的学生获取渠道以抵消压力，这包括线下、短视频和直播电子商务渠道等。好消息是，这里的成功扩张可能会使学生获取成本降低 50% 以上，这对利润率前景有利（跟谁学目前在运营层面处于亏损状态）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在这方面，跟谁学并不孤单——其他在线AST玩家也发起了类似的举措，从在线一对一和小班玩家，如51talk（COE）、VIPKID和新东方子公司Koolearn，其大班覆盖范围已达到约100个城市。同样，在线大班课外辅导企业也开始通过合作伙伴关系扩展到线下收购，好未来教育（TAL）子公司学而思最近几个月还与联想（OTCPK：LNVGY）合作。随着作业帮等私营企业也在组建线下流量获取团队，竞争压力可能会对近期前景造成负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成人教育将成为另一个主要增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在中国教育市场，随着人们越来越多地寻求在不确定的就业市场中提升技能，成人教育也成为一个潜在的增长机会。随着收入水平的提高，人们也在教育上花费更多，以便更好地为职业发展做好准备。因此，总账单以24.5%的复合年增长率增长，预计2023财年将以22.4%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到人民币2,650亿元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学上市招股说明书备案</blockquote></p><p> Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，虽然跟谁学目前预计2021财年收入同比增长70-80%，但成人教育业务有望成为收入同比增长+100%的关键增长动力。考虑到成人教育在 2020 财年占跟谁学收入的 10% 以上，我预计随着时间的推移，这一贡献将继续上升。这里的主要增长领域包括英语培训、研究生入学考试准备和金融相关课程。从长远来看，我认为成人教育业务的毛利率甚至可能高于K-12课外辅导，因为入学/导师比例更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在线法规仍然是关键问题</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，课后辅导领域潜在的在线法规令人担忧，可能的措施包括禁止虚假广告、加强对教育营销支出的控制，以及对机构和教师提出更严格的质量要求。另一方面，从长远来看，这些措施也将有利于整个行业的发展，让在线课外辅导玩家能够将更多的资金再投资于提高产品和教学质量。虽然线下/线上市场的新法规仍然缺乏明确性，但我看到了比2018年之前的行业经验更积极的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p><p><blockquote>对营销限制的任何限制都可能在短期内对注册人数和销售增长产生负面影响，但由于营销支出较低，也会有利于利润率。反过来，这应该会改善企业的长期经济效益，并推动下一季度亏损缩小。增长放缓的另一个关键积极因素是，跟谁学将能够专注于提高其产品/服务质量，并提取更多学生终身价值，同时保持其稳健的资产负债表。截至2020年底，跟谁学有一个c。人民币82亿元现金头寸（包括流动性投资），应能抵御任何不可预见的负面政策影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终拍摄</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，营销法规可能会对注册人数和营收增长产生负面影响，但也应该会带来更健康的运营动态并缩小未来的亏损。随着跟谁学还专注于替代收购渠道并进军成人教育等市场，我认为该公司可能会在未来几个季度带来积极的惊喜。虽然跟谁学的股价因Archegos资本事件和政策担忧而受到影响，但其远期电动汽车/销售倍数已大幅下降至c。3 倍，以及与 TAL 和 EDU 等同行相比不断扩大的相对折扣可能意味着负面影响已被定价。然而，在政策悬而未决的问题被解除之前，我认为风险/回报在当前水平上是平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 22:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）中国教育股周三早盘多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对冲基金认为 EDU 是现在值得买入的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote>第一季度末，Insider Monkey 追踪的对冲基金中共有 45 家看好该股，较一季度前变化了 5%。下面，您可以查看过去 23 个季度对冲基金对 EDU 情绪的变化。随着聪明资金的头寸经历通常的起伏，存在一个值得注意的对冲基金经理的“上层”，他们正在大幅增加持仓（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p><p><blockquote>新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）的最大股份由比亚迪1资本合伙公司持有，该公司报告称截至12月底持有价值3.505亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是 GQG Partners，头寸为 3.198 亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括 Tiger Global Management LLC、Farallon Capital 和 Alkeon Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Serenity Capital 将最大的权重分配给了新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU），约占其 13F 投资组合的 42.13%。麒麟管理公司也相对非常看好该股，将其 13F 股票投资组合的 18.73% 指定给 EDU。</blockquote></p><p> As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业的兴趣飙升，一些大牌公司自己也在破土动工。由 David Fear 管理的 Thunderbird Partners 在新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）中确立了最有价值的职位。截至本季度末，Thunderbird Partners 已向该公司投资 1670 万美元。Eduardo Costa’sCalixto Global Investors在本季度还对该股进行了1470万美元的投资。其他拥有全新EDU头寸的基金有Matthew Hulsizer的PEAK6 Capital Management、Campbell Wilson的sOld Well Partners和Daryl Smith的Kayak Investment Partners。</blockquote></p><p> Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动——不一定与新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）属于同一行业，但估值相似。这些股票包括堪萨斯城南方航空 (NYSE:KSU)、纽柯公司 (NYSE:NUE)、佛朗哥-内华达公司 (NYSE:FNV)、Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV)、哈特福德金融服务集团公司 (NYSE:HIG)、Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）和 Trip.com Group Limited（纳斯达克股票代码：TCOM）。所有这些股票的市值都与 EDU 的市值最接近。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有 32.1 家对冲基金持有看涨头寸，投资于这些股票的平均金额为 12.39 亿美元。在EDU的案例中，这个数字是21.88亿美元。哈特福德金融服务集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HIG）是该表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）是最不受欢迎的，只有 12 个看涨对冲基金头寸。新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）并不是该组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对 EDU 的总体对冲基金情绪得分为 70.7。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票会获得更高的情绪得分。这是一个稍微积极的信号，但我们宁愿花时间研究对冲基金正在囤积的股票。我们的计算显示，对冲基金中最受欢迎的 5 只股票在 2019 年和 2020 年的回报率为 95.8%，比标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）高出 40 个百分点。截至6月18日，这些股票在2021年上涨了17.4%，再次跑赢大盘6.1个百分点。不幸的是，EDU 远不如这 5 只股票受欢迎，押注 EDU 的对冲基金感到失望，因为该股自 3 月底（截至 6/18）以来的回报率为 -45.8%，表现逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好未来教育：尚未准备好应对新一波市场竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>  <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>  <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>  <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>  <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li> </ul> TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021 财年第二季度收入和 XRS online 增长低于普遍预期。</li><li>2020年，中国K12在线教育市场规模达890亿元，同比增长37.6%。</li><li>与克星新东方不同，好未来对其他公司的投资额自2016年以来持续下降。</li><li>随着新冠肺炎重塑市场，科技巨头开始大举进军数字教育行业。</li><li>我们并不认为该公司能够应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。</li></ul>好未来教育集团（又称明日高级学习）（TAL）是一家专注于中国K12学生的教育公司。它还拥有成人教育、早期教育和育儿以及教育信息化等业务部门。该公司以优质教育和课外辅导为载体体系，在全球范围内提供服务。成立于2003年，2010年在纽约证券交易所上市。</blockquote></p><p> In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，好未来与成立于1993年的新东方（EDU）竞争。可以说，两家公司都引领着中国的教育行业；首先，两者的市场覆盖范围势均力敌。从最新信息来看，新东方在国内共有98个城市和1个国外城市（多伦多）都有活跃的业务。好未来在中国总共90个城市开展业务。</blockquote></p><p> As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着快速增长国家的家长们越来越重视孩子的基础教育，以及电子学习日益普及，广阔的中小学教育和在线教育领域最终成为企业的必争之地。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Decent financial results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>良好的财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p><p><blockquote>好未来 2021 年第二季度的财务业绩并不令人印象深刻，该公司盈利 11 亿美元（同比增长 20.8%），而分析师预期该季度为 11.2 亿美元。不过，该公司公布本季度每股收益为 0.08 美元，比分析师普遍预期的 0.05 美元高出 0.03 美元。由于小学教育领域的激烈竞争，好未来教育集团的股本回报率为0.21%，净利润率为1.35%，而2021年第一季度为8.97%。其中包括近期完成巨轮投资的猿辅导和作业帮等本地纯在线教育公司。与此同时，由于激烈竞争导致客户获取成本上升，非 GAAP 营业利润率从 2020 年第二季度的 9.8% 降至 -1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新市场机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p><p><blockquote>近五六年来，随着国家的支持、技术的发展、资本的涌入，中国的在线K12教育行业得到了快速发展。二零二零年，中国K12在线教育整体市场规模达到约890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</blockquote></p><p> In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p><p><blockquote>2019年，中国K12在线教育的渗透率约为15%。随着2020年初新冠肺炎的袭击，在线教育的优势非常明显。在线K12教育的渗透率在2020年3月达到顶峰。虽然行业在国内仍处于消费普及阶段，但有明显的趋势。作为获取教育信息和服务的新兴方式，这一领域一直表现出长期的巨大需求。因此，行业渗透率未来有巨大的提升空间。根据中国科学院的预测，到2022年，K12在线教育行业的渗透率可能超过55%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p><p><blockquote>好未来拥有871个学习中心（线下辅导中心）、648个培优的事实（好未来培优）中心和128个一对一中心是我们认为TAL不是疫情证明的原因。为了控制 COVID-19 的传播，政府可能会关闭这些中心，这将导致该公司的财务状况大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p><p><blockquote>好未来确实拥有在线教育应用，但它们无法与 VIPKID、猿辅导和作业帮等公司竞争，尽管学而思好未来在线应用的收入贡献从 2020 财年第二季度的 17% 增加到 2021 财年第二季度的 26%。</blockquote></p><p> The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19在中国的重新出现对好未来的线下课堂培训业务构成阻力。虽然疫苗已经出现，但18岁以下的儿童是不允许接种的。当大多数投资者意识到该公司仍然专注于正式或基于课堂的辅导和培训时，TAL 的股价可能很快就会下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p><p><blockquote>好未来自大约九年前上市以来一直保持稳定增长。此后，收入增长了约 30 倍，复合年增长率为 45.7%，平均毛利率高达 50.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>截至 2 月份的上一财年的业绩受到 COVID-19 引发的限制措施的重大影响，这些限制措施在中国很早就开始了。线下运营，主要是核心培优小班，不得不迅速转移到线上平台。结果，由于在线课程售价较低，部分收入损失，第四季度总收入仅增长6.2%，而上年同期为44.1%。学生入学总数仍在上升，同比增长56.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Less venture investment presence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险投资较少</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p><p><blockquote>2017年以来，好未来的投资数量一直在减少。与好未来相比，新东方自2018年以来更加激进。好未来的融资从2016年的24笔大幅下降到2020年的只有两笔。这两项投资是在互动学习SaaS平台UMU和在线儿童数学辅导应用上进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p><p><blockquote><b>科技巨头的进入</b></blockquote></p><p> Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p><p><blockquote>随着夏季在线玩家的竞争变得激烈，销售和营销费用激增。销售和营销费用同比激增 64%，占总收入的 22%，同比增长 4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p><p><blockquote>随着新贵筹集巨额资金，好未来的处境可能会变得更加艰难，因为越来越多拥有巨额营销资金的公司将试图抢占市场份额。除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）、网易（纳斯达克股票代码：NTES）、腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）、字节跳动和百度（纳斯达克股票代码：BIDU）等中国巨头也涉足在线教育业务。好未来需要升级其在线教育业务才能维持运营。</blockquote></p><p> The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p><p><blockquote>教育领域很可能会被这个行业之外的公司瓜分。另外值得一提的是，公司的核心竞争力在于大数据、直播智能等技术在中国在线教育行业的深度应用。就专有的基于学费的技术而言，该公司没有在研发上投入太多资金。现有的进入壁垒很少。理论上，新进入者可以购买师资和市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allegation probe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指控调查</b></blockquote></p><p> In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年 4 月，好未来承认员工不当行为导致销售数据虚增，瑞幸咖啡 (OTCPK:LKNCY) 3.1 亿美元欺诈后进一步阻碍了市场信心，成为丑闻缠身的在美上市中国公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p><p><blockquote>两年前，浑水公司发布了一份报告，称该公司是“一家拥有虚假财务数据的真实企业”。报告称，“好未来在其核心培优业务的财务报表中存在欺诈行为。培优欺诈更难量化，但我们的研究表明，欺诈性多报了公司约 25% 至 30% 的收入”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p><p><blockquote>现在可能不是投资TAL教育的合适时机。我们给予该股中性评级，因为我们认为该公司无法应对即将到来的行业内激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。因此，好未来确实有机会增强线上业务，与新来者和老牌企业竞争，包括作业帮、猿辅导、百度和网易等。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><h3>高途集团：政策悬而未决保持风险回报平衡</h3><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>  <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>  <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>  <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li> </ul> Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高途集团（前身为跟谁学）的长期前景依然光明。</li><li>不利的监管变化仍然是近期前景的主要风险，但更健康的长期动态应该有利于盈利能力。</li><li>替代学生获取渠道和成人教育贡献增加等增长动力也应该有所帮助。</li><li>尽管电动汽车/销量倍数有折扣，但我会推迟启动头寸，因为目前正在等待政策悬而未决的清除。</li></ul>刚刚更名的高途集团（GOTU/跟谁学）最近举办的投资者活动对其运营和高层管理人员的战略进行了有趣的介绍，及时了解了长期前景。特别是，跟谁学强调其持续关注卓越的教学、服务质量和技术投资是关键的差异化因素。然而，政策风险仍然是最大的担忧，如果政府对在线课后辅导领域的干预比预期的更严格，我认为跟谁学的近期增长轨迹将面临重大下行风险。另一方面，它也可能带来更健康的行业动态，这也应该会推动亏损缩小。虽然政策改革的悬而未决使其难以转为看涨，但跟谁学的贴现 c.3 倍电动汽车/销售倍数看起来也要求不高，保持了风险/回报相当平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p><p><blockquote><b>替代学生获取渠道日益增长的重要性</b></blockquote></p><p> Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，跟谁学在2020年第四季度和2021年第一季度的流量获取有所减少，大幅下降。2021 年 1 月至 2 月的销售线索成本降低 20%（低于 2020 年 11 月至 12 月期间）。最近的下降可能是由于今年早些时候教育部（MOE）最近的一次采访引发了在线流量获取的监管不确定性。21年第一季度新入学增长的巨大压力可能也是营收指导低于预期的原因之一。作为回应，管理层正在探索新的学生获取渠道以抵消压力，这包括线下、短视频和直播电子商务渠道等。好消息是，这里的成功扩张可能会使学生获取成本降低 50% 以上，这对利润率前景有利（跟谁学目前在运营层面处于亏损状态）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在这方面，跟谁学并不孤单——其他在线AST玩家也发起了类似的举措，从在线一对一和小班玩家，如51talk（COE）、VIPKID和新东方子公司Koolearn，其大班覆盖范围已达到约100个城市。同样，在线大班课外辅导企业也开始通过合作伙伴关系扩展到线下收购，好未来教育（TAL）子公司学而思最近几个月还与联想（OTCPK：LNVGY）合作。随着作业帮等私营企业也在组建线下流量获取团队，竞争压力可能会对近期前景造成负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成人教育将成为另一个主要增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在中国教育市场，随着人们越来越多地寻求在不确定的就业市场中提升技能，成人教育也成为一个潜在的增长机会。随着收入水平的提高，人们也在教育上花费更多，以便更好地为职业发展做好准备。因此，总账单以24.5%的复合年增长率增长，预计2023财年将以22.4%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到人民币2,650亿元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学上市招股说明书备案</blockquote></p><p> Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，虽然跟谁学目前预计2021财年收入同比增长70-80%，但成人教育业务有望成为收入同比增长+100%的关键增长动力。考虑到成人教育在 2020 财年占跟谁学收入的 10% 以上，我预计随着时间的推移，这一贡献将继续上升。这里的主要增长领域包括英语培训、研究生入学考试准备和金融相关课程。从长远来看，我认为成人教育业务的毛利率甚至可能高于K-12课外辅导，因为入学/导师比例更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在线法规仍然是关键问题</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，课后辅导领域潜在的在线法规令人担忧，可能的措施包括禁止虚假广告、加强对教育营销支出的控制，以及对机构和教师提出更严格的质量要求。另一方面，从长远来看，这些措施也将有利于整个行业的发展，让在线课外辅导玩家能够将更多的资金再投资于提高产品和教学质量。虽然线下/线上市场的新法规仍然缺乏明确性，但我看到了比2018年之前的行业经验更积极的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p><p><blockquote>对营销限制的任何限制都可能在短期内对注册人数和销售增长产生负面影响，但由于营销支出较低，也会有利于利润率。反过来，这应该会改善企业的长期经济效益，并推动下一季度亏损缩小。增长放缓的另一个关键积极因素是，跟谁学将能够专注于提高其产品/服务质量，并提取更多学生终身价值，同时保持其稳健的资产负债表。截至2020年底，跟谁学有一个c。人民币82亿元现金头寸（包括流动性投资），应能抵御任何不可预见的负面政策影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终拍摄</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，营销法规可能会对注册人数和营收增长产生负面影响，但也应该会带来更健康的运营动态并缩小未来的亏损。随着跟谁学还专注于替代收购渠道并进军成人教育等市场，我认为该公司可能会在未来几个季度带来积极的惊喜。虽然跟谁学的股价因Archegos资本事件和政策担忧而受到影响，但其远期电动汽车/销售倍数已大幅下降至c。3 倍，以及与 TAL 和 EDU 等同行相比不断扩大的相对折扣可能意味着负面影响已被定价。然而，在政策悬而未决的问题被解除之前，我认为风险/回报在当前水平上是平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EDU":"新东方","TAL":"好未来","GOTU":"高途"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170395888","content_text":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?\nAt first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).\nThe largest stake in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.\nAs industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.\nLet's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.\nAs you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.\nTAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry\nSummary\n\nFY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.\nIn 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.\nUnlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.\nWith COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.\nWe do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.\n\nTAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education & parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.\nIn China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.\nAs parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.\nDecent financial results\nTAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.\nNew market opportunities\nIn the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.\nIn 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.\n\nThe fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.\nTAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.\nThe re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.\nTAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.\nResults from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.\nLess venture investment presence\nSince 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.\n\nThe entrance of tech giants\nSales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.\nWith upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.\nThe education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.\nAllegation probe\nIn April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.\nTwo years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"\nBottom line\nThis might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.\nGaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced\nSummary\n\nThe longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).\nAdverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.\nGrowth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.\nDespite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.\n\nNewly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.\nGrowing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels\nWorryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).\n\nSource:GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nHowever, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.\nAdult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver\nWithin the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.\n\nSource:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing\nNotably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.\nOnline Regulations Remain the Key Concern\nLooking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.\nAny restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.\n\nSource: GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nFinal Take\nOverall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.\nData by YCharts","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOTU":0.9,"TAL":0.9,"EDU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187994480,"gmtCreate":1623733630640,"gmtModify":1634029372584,"author":{"id":"3572526958066648","authorId":"3572526958066648","name":"你说我跟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572526958066648","idStr":"3572526958066648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>always first choice&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>always first choice&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$always first choice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187994480","repostId":"1167720481","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167720481","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623723356,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1167720481?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股票还是苹果，我每次都选择苹果</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167720481","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.So what does AAPL do with all of the cash","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.</li>  <li>Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.</li>  <li>Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.</li>  <li>Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3b80a3353ef82f618688f13f74658\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在2021年一直是一项负面投资，而模因股票却爆炸式增长，这是荒谬的。</li><li>投资者有机会在苹果下一次上涨之前购买它，而注意力已转移到追逐模因股票的快速收益。</li><li>苹果预计 2021 财年收入将超过 3000 亿美元，净利润将达到 750 亿美元。</li><li>最终，苹果将被重新投入到党中，他们的数字将被庆祝。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers&nbsp;Cathie Wood&nbsp;of&nbsp;Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in&nbsp;Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，苹果（AAPL）已成为负回报投资，其表现逊于SPDR标普500信托ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）超过15%。2021 年 5 月，Ark Invest 最热门的基金经理之一 Cathie Wood 从 Ark Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) 中出售了近 300,000 股 AAPL 股票。据报道，ARK 一度减持 AAPL 股份，以增加其在 Coinbase (COIN) 和 DraftKings (DKNG) 的头寸。one’s ARK 等主动管理基金每天监督股票的买卖，并可能使用 AAPL 作为现金的替代品。AAPL 的评论褒贬不一，一些人认为其最好的日子还在后头，而另一些人则认为辉煌的日子将无法重现。我认为市场正在给投资者一个机会，因为苹果公司应该会在 2021 年下半年摆脱横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> The market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation &amp; gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.</p><p><blockquote>市场对 AAPL 在第一季度和第二季度的井喷并没有留下深刻印象。AAPL 股价并没有在基本面支撑下上涨，而是一直在下跌。作为一名 AAPL 多头，令人困惑的是，当 AAPL 等公司正在为其有史以来最好的一年奠定基础时，如此多的注意力却集中在模因股票上，而不是像 AAPL 这样的公司上。在阅读了最近关于模因股票的文章的评论后，我写道，然后回顾一些AAPL文章的评论部分，我只是不明白心态是如何转向彻底的投机和赌博而不是投资的。在本财年的前两个季度，AAPL 的每股收益为 3.08 美元，而整个 2020 财年的每股收益为 3.31 美元。AAPL 在许多指标上都在巩固其有史以来最好的一年的基础，但市场并没有留下深刻印象。我相信2021年下半年将会有令人印象深刻的烟火，随着第三季度和第四季度数据的公布，耐心的股东将会得到回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86cb02096dfa9c6da05e350f274aa64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果相信这是市场上最好的投资，并说到做到</b></blockquote></p><p> So what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&amp;D]. In&nbsp;2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&amp;D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.</p><p><blockquote>那么，AAPL如何处理它产生的所有现金呢？首先，他们每年花费数百亿美元来发展业务，同时投资于研发[R&amp;D]。2020年，AAPL在创收成本上花费了1695.6亿美元。他们的劳动成果可以从他们的产品以及他们最新的业务部门（包括服务和可穿戴设备、家居和配件）的增长速度中看出。AAPL在2020年拨款187.5亿美元用于研发，为他们心爱的产品带来了进步。AAPL拥有类似于邪教心态的客户群的原因之一是因为AAPL没有停止创新。他们总是站在技术如何改善个人日常生活的最前沿。</blockquote></p><p> So what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's&nbsp;board&nbsp;authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost&nbsp;$23 billion&nbsp;in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.</p><p><blockquote>那么AAPL的业务费用兑现后剩余的现金怎么办呢？AAPL 押注于自己，并将其股票视为一项投资。自2012财年以来，AAPL已回购了4217亿美元的自有股票。2021年，AAPL回购了430亿美元的股票，表明高层领导认为拥有AAPL股票具有巨大的价值。我记得当内部人士购买他们公司股票时，每个人都很兴奋的日子。对于 AAPL 来说，回购股票只是一个普通的星期一。过去十年，苹果公司回购的股票数量超过了大多数公司的市值增长。AAPL 董事会授权向其现有股票回购计划追加 900 亿美元，AAPL 在 2021 年第二季度向股东返还了近 230 亿美元的资本，没有比这更乐观的了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbaf61374104ed17e51201af591ab7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Meme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票与苹果以及这个市场的疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME &amp; AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站 (GME) 和AMC院线控股公司 (AMC) 在 2021 年上半年的股价升值幅度大幅削弱了 AAPL。不管GME和AMC为什么上涨，事实是GME的回报率超过了1,100%，AMC的回报率超过了2,000%。任何骑过 GME 或 AMC 的人，我都向你们表示祝贺并脱帽致敬。由于 AAPL 今年表现不佳，市场受到了宏伟错觉的推动，而 GME 和 AMC 却绝对上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85258331453c02381346f8b6c676cec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through&nbsp;AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个月AMC发生了什么变化？我可以告诉你，一件事都没有。AMC仍然是一家亏损的公司，几乎不赚钱。我明白投资像 AMC 这样的公司可以由于波动性而产生巨大回报，我并没有否认这一点。如果你能在上面赚钱，无论如何，不要让任何人挡你的路，但要小心。当你通读AMC的损益表时，他们的净利润从未超过4亿美元。在过去十年中，AMC最赚钱的一年是2013年，净利润为3.644亿美元。2019 年，由于 COVID 的影响为零，AMC 创造了 54.7 亿美元的收入，但甚至无法盈利，因为他们亏损了 1.491 亿美元。AMC 上一季度报告显示其资产负债表上的股本为 -23 亿美元。现实情况是，AMC 可以发行额外股票并出售以筹集资金。这将使 AMC 受益，改善其资产负债表并增加手头现金。人们似乎不明白，当一家公司发行更多股票时，最初的一批股票会因为额外的供应量而被稀释，变得一文不值。AMC可以发行股票并加强其资产负债表，但这并不能解决其利润问题。AAPL 每个季度向股东支付的股息比 AMC 过去十年产生的利润还要多，但 AMC 是产生更大回报的股票。</blockquote></p><p> When investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my&nbsp;AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&amp;P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN)&nbsp;has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and&nbsp;Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.</p><p><blockquote>当投资者购买 AMC 股票时，他们购买的是一家每股收益为负的公司。AMC 的市盈率无法在过去 12 个月或远期基础上衡量，但投资者愿意为不存在的收益买单。在我的AMC文章的评论中，人们说基本面并不重要。我知道 AMC 一直是一项技术性交易，但这并不能改变投资者为负收益公司买单的现实。目前，标准普尔的平均市盈率为45.02。如果我使用 AAPL 在 2021 财年前 6 个月产生的每股收益 3.08 美元，他们的市盈率将为 40.55。对于 TTM，AAPL 的每股收益为 4.49 美元，这使得他们的市盈率降至 28.09。目前，投资者为 AAPL 每产生 1 美元的收益支付 28.09 美元，这对于科技行业来说是较低的。亚马逊 (AMZN) 的市盈率为 62.44，微软 (MSFT) 为 34.93，谷歌 (GOOGL) 为 32.05。看涨期权我很守旧，但我喜欢投资盈利的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e06d9bc68454731c984429111ff056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"661\"><span>(Source:multpl.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：multpl.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Laying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阐述苹果的牛市理由以及为什么突破上行是不可避免的</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 拥有一批狂热的追随者，他们被其产品和服务所吸引。2021年前6个月，AAPLhas实现收入2010.2亿美元，毛利润824.1亿美元，净利润523.9亿美元。2021年，AAPL已经创造了2020年总收入的73.23%（2010.2亿美元），然后是2020年总收入的78.51%（824.1亿美元）和2020年总净收入的91.25%（523.9亿美元）。AAPL 有望打破其之前的记录，除非发生深不可测的事情，否则 2021 年将是 AAPL 有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> So the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when&nbsp;AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.</p><p><blockquote>因此，真正的问题是，是什么导致了 AAPL 财务状况的飙升，以及它们是否可持续？部分原因是苹果公司的硬件销量从 iPhone 12 到 iPad 都有所增长。可以说，由于在家工作或远程学习，许多人在疫情期间需要升级他们的技术，但这种逻辑不能用于2021年。4月底，苹果公司公布第二季度业绩时，其iPhone销售额超出预期71.4亿美元，Mac销售额超出预期22亿美元，iPad销售额超出预期20.1亿美元。这些数字是在一年后公布的，虽然苹果公司发布的第一款 5G 手机 iPhone 12 预计会带来顺风，但我相信疫情将社会推向了一个更加重视技术的地方。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In&nbsp;2018 Services&nbsp;generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.</p><p><blockquote>我相信 AAPL 将继续看到强劲的硬件销售，但这只是难题的一部分。服务、可穿戴设备、家居和配件正在成为 AAPL 财务指标的重要组成部分。2018年，服务业创造了397.5亿美元的收入。2019年，服务业增长了65.4亿美元（16.46%），年收入为462.9亿美元。2020年，服务业增长了74.8亿美元（16.15%），收入总计537.7亿美元。2020年前6个月，服务业已经创造了326.6亿美元的收入，占2020年总收入的60.75%。服务持续增长，为 AAPL 创造了一个真正的经常性收入业务部门。服务之美在于AAPL销售的每一件硬件；每个月都有机会通过服务产生额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Services are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>随着 AAPL 实现收入结构多元化，不再仅仅依赖实体产品，服务正在成为 AAPL 的本垒打。截至 2020 财年末，Services 在短短 4 年内年收入增加了 294.2 亿美元（120.83%）。2021年前6个月，服务业创造了326.6亿美元，占2020年年收入的60%。AAPL 有望在 2021 财年实现 600 亿美元的服务收入。展望未来，在不久的将来，服务业可能会产生 1000 亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f044f79f7525038fb94ed27b6a92209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Wearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.</p><p><blockquote>家庭可穿戴设备和配件继续追随 Service 的脚步，因为它已成为比 iPad 和 Mac 更大的收入领域。随着苹果观察的推出，这一类别已经从2016年的111.3亿美元增长到2020年的306.2亿美元。在4个财年中，可穿戴家居和配件的收入增加了244.8亿美元（175.06%），并且增长不断扩大。2021年前6个月，家用可穿戴设备和配件创造了208.1亿美元的收入，占2020年总收入的67.95%。AAPL 肯定有望在 2021 财年从家用可穿戴设备和配件中产生超过 350 亿美元的收入。未来几年，AAPL 有望从家用可穿戴设备和配件中产生 500 亿美元的年收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7071ec652302c6cab585fef4c408d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.</p><p><blockquote>到 2025 财年末，服务很有可能产生超过 780 亿美元的收入，如果家用可穿戴设备和配件都以 10% 的速度增长，则年收入可能超过 440 亿美元。这两个类别的总收入有望超过 1000 亿美元，到 2020 年代末，每年可能会增长到 1500 亿美元。我感到震惊的是，投资者没有大量涌入 AAPL，更可笑的是，对 AAPL 数据的强调没有得到更详细的讨论。当服务收入达到 1000 亿美元，家用可穿戴设备和配件收入达到 500 亿美元时，AAPL 的未来价值是多少？在过去的十年里，AAPL不断创新和改变技术的使用方式，我拒绝相信他们最好的日子已经过去。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cd231b75d9f875329f6713debe846b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票给一些投资者带来了极大的兴奋，而他们却让另一大群人摇头。除了赌博之外，我无法理解当你可以购买出售的 AAPL 股票时，为什么人们还要投资 AMC。苹果公司本应暴涨，但其最近两个季度的井喷并没有改变局面。我相信一旦第三季度数据公布，情况就会有所不同。我们将再次发现，AAPL 继续购买数十亿美元的股票，同时报告称，在 9 个月内，他们产生的净利润超过了 2020 年全年。在运营的前6个月，AAPL创造了2010.2亿美元的收入和523.9亿美元的净利润，同时返还了532亿美元的回购和股息。投资者有机会在下一次上涨之前购买更多 AAPL。我是 AAPL 的股东，我计划在第三季度财报公布之前购买更多股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股票还是苹果，我每次都选择苹果</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股票还是苹果，我每次都选择苹果</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 10:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.</li>  <li>Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.</li>  <li>Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.</li>  <li>Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3b80a3353ef82f618688f13f74658\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在2021年一直是一项负面投资，而模因股票却爆炸式增长，这是荒谬的。</li><li>投资者有机会在苹果下一次上涨之前购买它，而注意力已转移到追逐模因股票的快速收益。</li><li>苹果预计 2021 财年收入将超过 3000 亿美元，净利润将达到 750 亿美元。</li><li>最终，苹果将被重新投入到党中，他们的数字将被庆祝。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers&nbsp;Cathie Wood&nbsp;of&nbsp;Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in&nbsp;Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，苹果（AAPL）已成为负回报投资，其表现逊于SPDR标普500信托ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）超过15%。2021 年 5 月，Ark Invest 最热门的基金经理之一 Cathie Wood 从 Ark Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) 中出售了近 300,000 股 AAPL 股票。据报道，ARK 一度减持 AAPL 股份，以增加其在 Coinbase (COIN) 和 DraftKings (DKNG) 的头寸。one’s ARK 等主动管理基金每天监督股票的买卖，并可能使用 AAPL 作为现金的替代品。AAPL 的评论褒贬不一，一些人认为其最好的日子还在后头，而另一些人则认为辉煌的日子将无法重现。我认为市场正在给投资者一个机会，因为苹果公司应该会在 2021 年下半年摆脱横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> The market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation &amp; gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.</p><p><blockquote>市场对 AAPL 在第一季度和第二季度的井喷并没有留下深刻印象。AAPL 股价并没有在基本面支撑下上涨，而是一直在下跌。作为一名 AAPL 多头，令人困惑的是，当 AAPL 等公司正在为其有史以来最好的一年奠定基础时，如此多的注意力却集中在模因股票上，而不是像 AAPL 这样的公司上。在阅读了最近关于模因股票的文章的评论后，我写道，然后回顾一些AAPL文章的评论部分，我只是不明白心态是如何转向彻底的投机和赌博而不是投资的。在本财年的前两个季度，AAPL 的每股收益为 3.08 美元，而整个 2020 财年的每股收益为 3.31 美元。AAPL 在许多指标上都在巩固其有史以来最好的一年的基础，但市场并没有留下深刻印象。我相信2021年下半年将会有令人印象深刻的烟火，随着第三季度和第四季度数据的公布，耐心的股东将会得到回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86cb02096dfa9c6da05e350f274aa64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果相信这是市场上最好的投资，并说到做到</b></blockquote></p><p> So what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&amp;D]. In&nbsp;2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&amp;D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.</p><p><blockquote>那么，AAPL如何处理它产生的所有现金呢？首先，他们每年花费数百亿美元来发展业务，同时投资于研发[R&amp;D]。2020年，AAPL在创收成本上花费了1695.6亿美元。他们的劳动成果可以从他们的产品以及他们最新的业务部门（包括服务和可穿戴设备、家居和配件）的增长速度中看出。AAPL在2020年拨款187.5亿美元用于研发，为他们心爱的产品带来了进步。AAPL拥有类似于邪教心态的客户群的原因之一是因为AAPL没有停止创新。他们总是站在技术如何改善个人日常生活的最前沿。</blockquote></p><p> So what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's&nbsp;board&nbsp;authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost&nbsp;$23 billion&nbsp;in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.</p><p><blockquote>那么AAPL的业务费用兑现后剩余的现金怎么办呢？AAPL 押注于自己，并将其股票视为一项投资。自2012财年以来，AAPL已回购了4217亿美元的自有股票。2021年，AAPL回购了430亿美元的股票，表明高层领导认为拥有AAPL股票具有巨大的价值。我记得当内部人士购买他们公司股票时，每个人都很兴奋的日子。对于 AAPL 来说，回购股票只是一个普通的星期一。过去十年，苹果公司回购的股票数量超过了大多数公司的市值增长。AAPL 董事会授权向其现有股票回购计划追加 900 亿美元，AAPL 在 2021 年第二季度向股东返还了近 230 亿美元的资本，没有比这更乐观的了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbaf61374104ed17e51201af591ab7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Meme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票与苹果以及这个市场的疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME &amp; AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站 (GME) 和AMC院线控股公司 (AMC) 在 2021 年上半年的股价升值幅度大幅削弱了 AAPL。不管GME和AMC为什么上涨，事实是GME的回报率超过了1,100%，AMC的回报率超过了2,000%。任何骑过 GME 或 AMC 的人，我都向你们表示祝贺并脱帽致敬。由于 AAPL 今年表现不佳，市场受到了宏伟错觉的推动，而 GME 和 AMC 却绝对上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85258331453c02381346f8b6c676cec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through&nbsp;AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个月AMC发生了什么变化？我可以告诉你，一件事都没有。AMC仍然是一家亏损的公司，几乎不赚钱。我明白投资像 AMC 这样的公司可以由于波动性而产生巨大回报，我并没有否认这一点。如果你能在上面赚钱，无论如何，不要让任何人挡你的路，但要小心。当你通读AMC的损益表时，他们的净利润从未超过4亿美元。在过去十年中，AMC最赚钱的一年是2013年，净利润为3.644亿美元。2019 年，由于 COVID 的影响为零，AMC 创造了 54.7 亿美元的收入，但甚至无法盈利，因为他们亏损了 1.491 亿美元。AMC 上一季度报告显示其资产负债表上的股本为 -23 亿美元。现实情况是，AMC 可以发行额外股票并出售以筹集资金。这将使 AMC 受益，改善其资产负债表并增加手头现金。人们似乎不明白，当一家公司发行更多股票时，最初的一批股票会因为额外的供应量而被稀释，变得一文不值。AMC可以发行股票并加强其资产负债表，但这并不能解决其利润问题。AAPL 每个季度向股东支付的股息比 AMC 过去十年产生的利润还要多，但 AMC 是产生更大回报的股票。</blockquote></p><p> When investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my&nbsp;AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&amp;P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN)&nbsp;has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and&nbsp;Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.</p><p><blockquote>当投资者购买 AMC 股票时，他们购买的是一家每股收益为负的公司。AMC 的市盈率无法在过去 12 个月或远期基础上衡量，但投资者愿意为不存在的收益买单。在我的AMC文章的评论中，人们说基本面并不重要。我知道 AMC 一直是一项技术性交易，但这并不能改变投资者为负收益公司买单的现实。目前，标准普尔的平均市盈率为45.02。如果我使用 AAPL 在 2021 财年前 6 个月产生的每股收益 3.08 美元，他们的市盈率将为 40.55。对于 TTM，AAPL 的每股收益为 4.49 美元，这使得他们的市盈率降至 28.09。目前，投资者为 AAPL 每产生 1 美元的收益支付 28.09 美元，这对于科技行业来说是较低的。亚马逊 (AMZN) 的市盈率为 62.44，微软 (MSFT) 为 34.93，谷歌 (GOOGL) 为 32.05。看涨期权我很守旧，但我喜欢投资盈利的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e06d9bc68454731c984429111ff056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"661\"><span>(Source:multpl.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：multpl.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Laying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阐述苹果的牛市理由以及为什么突破上行是不可避免的</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 拥有一批狂热的追随者，他们被其产品和服务所吸引。2021年前6个月，AAPLhas实现收入2010.2亿美元，毛利润824.1亿美元，净利润523.9亿美元。2021年，AAPL已经创造了2020年总收入的73.23%（2010.2亿美元），然后是2020年总收入的78.51%（824.1亿美元）和2020年总净收入的91.25%（523.9亿美元）。AAPL 有望打破其之前的记录，除非发生深不可测的事情，否则 2021 年将是 AAPL 有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> So the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when&nbsp;AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.</p><p><blockquote>因此，真正的问题是，是什么导致了 AAPL 财务状况的飙升，以及它们是否可持续？部分原因是苹果公司的硬件销量从 iPhone 12 到 iPad 都有所增长。可以说，由于在家工作或远程学习，许多人在疫情期间需要升级他们的技术，但这种逻辑不能用于2021年。4月底，苹果公司公布第二季度业绩时，其iPhone销售额超出预期71.4亿美元，Mac销售额超出预期22亿美元，iPad销售额超出预期20.1亿美元。这些数字是在一年后公布的，虽然苹果公司发布的第一款 5G 手机 iPhone 12 预计会带来顺风，但我相信疫情将社会推向了一个更加重视技术的地方。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In&nbsp;2018 Services&nbsp;generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.</p><p><blockquote>我相信 AAPL 将继续看到强劲的硬件销售，但这只是难题的一部分。服务、可穿戴设备、家居和配件正在成为 AAPL 财务指标的重要组成部分。2018年，服务业创造了397.5亿美元的收入。2019年，服务业增长了65.4亿美元（16.46%），年收入为462.9亿美元。2020年，服务业增长了74.8亿美元（16.15%），收入总计537.7亿美元。2020年前6个月，服务业已经创造了326.6亿美元的收入，占2020年总收入的60.75%。服务持续增长，为 AAPL 创造了一个真正的经常性收入业务部门。服务之美在于AAPL销售的每一件硬件；每个月都有机会通过服务产生额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Services are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>随着 AAPL 实现收入结构多元化，不再仅仅依赖实体产品，服务正在成为 AAPL 的本垒打。截至 2020 财年末，Services 在短短 4 年内年收入增加了 294.2 亿美元（120.83%）。2021年前6个月，服务业创造了326.6亿美元，占2020年年收入的60%。AAPL 有望在 2021 财年实现 600 亿美元的服务收入。展望未来，在不久的将来，服务业可能会产生 1000 亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f044f79f7525038fb94ed27b6a92209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Wearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.</p><p><blockquote>家庭可穿戴设备和配件继续追随 Service 的脚步，因为它已成为比 iPad 和 Mac 更大的收入领域。随着苹果观察的推出，这一类别已经从2016年的111.3亿美元增长到2020年的306.2亿美元。在4个财年中，可穿戴家居和配件的收入增加了244.8亿美元（175.06%），并且增长不断扩大。2021年前6个月，家用可穿戴设备和配件创造了208.1亿美元的收入，占2020年总收入的67.95%。AAPL 肯定有望在 2021 财年从家用可穿戴设备和配件中产生超过 350 亿美元的收入。未来几年，AAPL 有望从家用可穿戴设备和配件中产生 500 亿美元的年收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7071ec652302c6cab585fef4c408d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.</p><p><blockquote>到 2025 财年末，服务很有可能产生超过 780 亿美元的收入，如果家用可穿戴设备和配件都以 10% 的速度增长，则年收入可能超过 440 亿美元。这两个类别的总收入有望超过 1000 亿美元，到 2020 年代末，每年可能会增长到 1500 亿美元。我感到震惊的是，投资者没有大量涌入 AAPL，更可笑的是，对 AAPL 数据的强调没有得到更详细的讨论。当服务收入达到 1000 亿美元，家用可穿戴设备和配件收入达到 500 亿美元时，AAPL 的未来价值是多少？在过去的十年里，AAPL不断创新和改变技术的使用方式，我拒绝相信他们最好的日子已经过去。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cd231b75d9f875329f6713debe846b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票给一些投资者带来了极大的兴奋，而他们却让另一大群人摇头。除了赌博之外，我无法理解当你可以购买出售的 AAPL 股票时，为什么人们还要投资 AMC。苹果公司本应暴涨，但其最近两个季度的井喷并没有改变局面。我相信一旦第三季度数据公布，情况就会有所不同。我们将再次发现，AAPL 继续购买数十亿美元的股票，同时报告称，在 9 个月内，他们产生的净利润超过了 2020 年全年。在运营的前6个月，AAPL创造了2010.2亿美元的收入和523.9亿美元的净利润，同时返还了532亿美元的回购和股息。投资者有机会在下一次上涨之前购买更多 AAPL。我是 AAPL 的股东，我计划在第三季度财报公布之前购买更多股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167720481","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.\nInvestors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.\nApple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.\nEventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nIn 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.\nThe market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation & gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nApple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is\nSo what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&D]. In 2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.\nSo what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's board authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost $23 billion in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.\n(Source: Apple)\nMeme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market\nGameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME & AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nWhat's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.\nWhen investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN) has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.\n(Source:multpl.com)\nLaying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable\nAAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.\nSo the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.\nI believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In 2018 Services generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.\nServices are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nWearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nBy the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.\n(Source: Apple)\nConclusion\nThe meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2073,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}