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2021-06-09

Lol when it is 8 dollar we buy in... But when drop 10% they make effort to write a article... Just to spread the propganda hahaha

AMC dropped over 10% in morning trading, Is AMC Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?<blockquote>AMC早盘下跌超10%，AMC股票现在是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>

2021-07-12

Fake news lol hedge fund must be worry... This mean amc going to 🚀 buy and hold hold lol

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2021-09-11

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ buy n holddd

2021-07-22

Lol propganda lol

Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote>

2021-03-26

Why they are trying keep going out such article to do propaganda content to brain wash people.. Retailor Investor just like the stock... It can worth how much as they want it to be damn

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2021-06-20

Might as well say meme stock loke amc or gme or good stock like apple stock all cannot make it... Why like to write such article..

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2021-06-16

Wow

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2021-07-16

Fake news haahaha rubbish again we buy an hold

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2021-07-09

Lol they under estimate retailor Investor hahaha we buy and hold and hedge fund bleed to death and stock 🚀 hhahaha

Meme Stocks Like GameStop and AMC Reflect Market Reality<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC等模因股票反映了市场现实</blockquote>

2021-06-15

Nice

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To bad...&nbsp;","listText":"Lol 😂 it will be a giant soon people who belittle them... To bad...&nbsp;","text":"Lol 😂 it will be a giant soon people who belittle them... To bad...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844007553","repostId":"2180757875","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2021,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886989281,"gmtCreate":1631543582943,"gmtModify":1631890345214,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Continue buy and buy.. Hha we like the stock","listText":"Continue buy and buy.. Hha we like the stock","text":"Continue buy and buy.. Hha we like the stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886989281","repostId":"1105230157","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881369097,"gmtCreate":1631294134119,"gmtModify":1631884398047,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>&nbsp;buy n holddd","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>&nbsp;buy n holddd","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ buy n holddd","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ee5e5aa5a5469357b921f3d3176701f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881369097","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881901036,"gmtCreate":1631283587825,"gmtModify":1631884398233,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>&nbsp; buy n Hold wooook","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>&nbsp; buy n Hold wooook","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ buy n Hold wooook","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/827bacf889a5dab239f91a7bc1eb1dcc","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881901036","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812545881,"gmtCreate":1630596963743,"gmtModify":1631890345216,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If it is so lousy as it is.. Pls push it to 0.10 lol i also will..Not sell...","listText":"If it is so lousy as it is.. Pls push it to 0.10 lol i also will..Not sell...","text":"If it is so lousy as it is.. Pls push it to 0.10 lol i also will..Not sell...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812545881","repostId":"1158045928","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1158045928","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1630563226,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158045928?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 14:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why AMC Is The 'Riskier' Investment In Movie Theaters: 'Fundamentals Are Nowhere Near Where Shares Are Trading'<blockquote>为什么AMC是电影院“风险更高”的投资：“基本面与股票交易相差甚远”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158045928","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Macquarie Capital Managing Director and Senior Analyst Chad Beynon on Wednesday downgraded AMC Enter","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQG.AU\">Macquarie</a> Capital Managing Director and Senior Analyst Chad Beynon&nbsp;on Wednesday downgraded&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> Holdings Inc.</b></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQG.AU\">麦夸里</a>资本董事总经理兼高级分析师Chad Beynon周三下调评级<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>控股公司。</b></blockquote></p><p> AMC-7.28%&nbsp;from Neutral to Underperform and maintained a $6 price target.</p><p><blockquote>AMC-7.28%从中性调整为跑输大盘，维持6美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Logic Behind The Downgrade:</b>&nbsp;In a new&nbsp;note, Beynon observed that U.S. theatrical box office performance has yet to recover its pre-pandemic levels. While expressing confidence in the theater chains&nbsp;<b>IMAX Corp.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>降级背后的逻辑：</b>贝农在一份新报告中指出，美国影院票房表现尚未恢复到大流行前的水平。在表达对院线信心的同时<b>IMAX公司。</b></blockquote></p><p> IMAX-1.21%and<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNK\">Cinemark</a> Holdings Inc.</b>, Beynon had less enthusiasm for AMC’s prospects in the current market.</p><p><blockquote>IMAX-1.21%和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNK\">喜满客</a>控股公司。</b>，贝农对AMC在当前市场的前景不那么热情。</blockquote></p><p> “AMC remains a riskier investment, given rent obligations, higher leverage and a difficult margin trajectory following a more normalized recovery,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示：“考虑到租金义务、较高的杠杆率以及复苏更加正常化后利润率轨迹困难，AMC仍然是一项风险较高的投资。”</blockquote></p><p> Beynon observed&nbsp;<b>AMC’s stock performance is still being “heavily influenced” by retail investors</b>, particularly the members of the WallStreetBets forum on Reddit. He noted this created a conspicuous imbalance “with shares still up ~526% L12M (vs. theatre space +11 % and S&amp;P500 +29%). However, shares are trading at ~58x ’22E cons estimates, whereas we generally see this business trading in the 6-9x EBITDA range.”</p><p><blockquote>贝农观察到<b>AMC的股票表现仍受到散户投资者的“严重影响”</b>，尤其是Reddit上WallStreetBets论坛的成员。他指出，这造成了明显的不平衡，“股价仍上涨约526%L12M（相对于theatre space+11%和S&amp;P 500+29%）。然而，股价的交易价格约为22E cons预期的58倍，而我们通常看到这项业务的交易价格在6-9倍的EBITDA范围内。”</blockquote></p><p> He added that while AMC avoided a bankruptcy filing during the COVID-19 pandemic thanks to its ability to raise additional capital and refinance some of its debt, he questioned whether its&nbsp;near-term future was copacetic.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，虽然AMC在COVID-19大流行期间避免了破产申请，这要归功于其筹集额外资本和为部分债务再融资的能力，但他质疑其近期前景是否乐观。</blockquote></p><p> “Looking forward, fundamentals are nowhere near where shares are trading given the company carries deferred rent of $420m (2Q21) in addition to its annual rent expense of $1bn,” he wrote, adding that he could foresee how AMC would generate positive free cash flow until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“展望未来，鉴于该公司除了10亿美元的年租金支出外，还承担4.2亿美元（2021年第二季度）的递延租金。”他补充说，他可以预见AMC将如何产生正的自由现金流到2023年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Competition’s Viability:</b>&nbsp;While downgrading AMC, Beynon hailed IMAX as being “more insulated than peers given recovering trends in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a>, leading margins and a well-capitalized balance sheet” and maintained an Outperform rating while adding a dollar to raise its target price to $26.</p><p><blockquote><b>比赛的生存能力：</b>在下调AMC评级的同时，贝农称赞IMAX“鉴于美国的复苏趋势，比同行更加绝缘”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>、领先的利润率和资本充足的资产负债表”，维持跑赢大盘评级，同时将目标价上调1美元至26美元。</blockquote></p><p> With Cinemark, Beynon ranked it as&nbsp;“a close #2, given its superior balance sheet (we’re projecting 3.3x YE22 leverage), superior margins (860bps higher than AMC in 2019) and more suburban locations (lower rent),” adding its balance sheet could encourage “opportunistic M&amp;A.”</p><p><blockquote>Beynon将Cinemark评为“接近第二名，因为其卓越的资产负债表（我们预计2022年杠杆率为3.3倍）、卓越的利润率（2019年比AMC高860个基点）和更多的郊区地点（租金较低）”，并补充说其资产负债表可能会鼓励“机会主义并购”。</blockquote></p><p> He maintained its Outperform rating and added a dollar to raise its target price to $24.</p><p><blockquote>他维持其跑赢大盘评级，并加1美元将目标价上调至24美元。</blockquote></p><p> Also under analysis was&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDI\">Reading</a> International Inc.</b>&nbsp;RDI, which operates art house venues primarily in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">City</a>, Australia and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> Zealand. Beynon noted that while these specialty theaters were strong performers before the pandemic, they now face higher rents, a content inventory challenge and greater competition from other entertainment channels. As a result, he downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral and lowered the price target from $8 to $6.</p><p><blockquote>还在分析中的是<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDI\">阅读</a>国际公司。</b>RDI，主要在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">城市</a>、澳大利亚和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>新西兰。贝农指出，虽然这些专业影院在疫情之前表现强劲，但现在它们面临着更高的租金、内容库存挑战以及来自其他娱乐频道的更大竞争。因此，他将该股评级从跑赢大盘下调至中性，并将目标价从8美元下调至6美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Price Action</b>: AMC's stock is trading down 2.8% to $45.77&nbsp;at publication time.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC价格走势</b>：截至发稿时，AMC股价下跌2.8%，至45.77美元。</blockquote></p><p> Cinemark is down 3% to $17.30, while IMAX is down 1% to $15.55.</p><p><blockquote>Cinemark下跌3%至17.30美元，IMAX下跌1%至15.55美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why AMC Is The 'Riskier' Investment In Movie Theaters: 'Fundamentals Are Nowhere Near Where Shares Are Trading'<blockquote>为什么AMC是电影院“风险更高”的投资：“基本面与股票交易相差甚远”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy AMC Is The 'Riskier' Investment In Movie Theaters: 'Fundamentals Are Nowhere Near Where Shares Are Trading'<blockquote>为什么AMC是电影院“风险更高”的投资：“基本面与股票交易相差甚远”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-02 14:13</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQG.AU\">Macquarie</a> Capital Managing Director and Senior Analyst Chad Beynon&nbsp;on Wednesday downgraded&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> Holdings Inc.</b></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQG.AU\">麦夸里</a>资本董事总经理兼高级分析师Chad Beynon周三下调评级<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>控股公司。</b></blockquote></p><p> AMC-7.28%&nbsp;from Neutral to Underperform and maintained a $6 price target.</p><p><blockquote>AMC-7.28%从中性调整为跑输大盘，维持6美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Logic Behind The Downgrade:</b>&nbsp;In a new&nbsp;note, Beynon observed that U.S. theatrical box office performance has yet to recover its pre-pandemic levels. While expressing confidence in the theater chains&nbsp;<b>IMAX Corp.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>降级背后的逻辑：</b>贝农在一份新报告中指出，美国影院票房表现尚未恢复到大流行前的水平。在表达对院线信心的同时<b>IMAX公司。</b></blockquote></p><p> IMAX-1.21%and<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNK\">Cinemark</a> Holdings Inc.</b>, Beynon had less enthusiasm for AMC’s prospects in the current market.</p><p><blockquote>IMAX-1.21%和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNK\">喜满客</a>控股公司。</b>，贝农对AMC在当前市场的前景不那么热情。</blockquote></p><p> “AMC remains a riskier investment, given rent obligations, higher leverage and a difficult margin trajectory following a more normalized recovery,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示：“考虑到租金义务、较高的杠杆率以及复苏更加正常化后利润率轨迹困难，AMC仍然是一项风险较高的投资。”</blockquote></p><p> Beynon observed&nbsp;<b>AMC’s stock performance is still being “heavily influenced” by retail investors</b>, particularly the members of the WallStreetBets forum on Reddit. He noted this created a conspicuous imbalance “with shares still up ~526% L12M (vs. theatre space +11 % and S&amp;P500 +29%). However, shares are trading at ~58x ’22E cons estimates, whereas we generally see this business trading in the 6-9x EBITDA range.”</p><p><blockquote>贝农观察到<b>AMC的股票表现仍受到散户投资者的“严重影响”</b>，尤其是Reddit上WallStreetBets论坛的成员。他指出，这造成了明显的不平衡，“股价仍上涨约526%L12M（相对于theatre space+11%和S&amp;P 500+29%）。然而，股价的交易价格约为22E cons预期的58倍，而我们通常看到这项业务的交易价格在6-9倍的EBITDA范围内。”</blockquote></p><p> He added that while AMC avoided a bankruptcy filing during the COVID-19 pandemic thanks to its ability to raise additional capital and refinance some of its debt, he questioned whether its&nbsp;near-term future was copacetic.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，虽然AMC在COVID-19大流行期间避免了破产申请，这要归功于其筹集额外资本和为部分债务再融资的能力，但他质疑其近期前景是否乐观。</blockquote></p><p> “Looking forward, fundamentals are nowhere near where shares are trading given the company carries deferred rent of $420m (2Q21) in addition to its annual rent expense of $1bn,” he wrote, adding that he could foresee how AMC would generate positive free cash flow until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“展望未来，鉴于该公司除了10亿美元的年租金支出外，还承担4.2亿美元（2021年第二季度）的递延租金。”他补充说，他可以预见AMC将如何产生正的自由现金流到2023年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Competition’s Viability:</b>&nbsp;While downgrading AMC, Beynon hailed IMAX as being “more insulated than peers given recovering trends in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a>, leading margins and a well-capitalized balance sheet” and maintained an Outperform rating while adding a dollar to raise its target price to $26.</p><p><blockquote><b>比赛的生存能力：</b>在下调AMC评级的同时，贝农称赞IMAX“鉴于美国的复苏趋势，比同行更加绝缘”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>、领先的利润率和资本充足的资产负债表”，维持跑赢大盘评级，同时将目标价上调1美元至26美元。</blockquote></p><p> With Cinemark, Beynon ranked it as&nbsp;“a close #2, given its superior balance sheet (we’re projecting 3.3x YE22 leverage), superior margins (860bps higher than AMC in 2019) and more suburban locations (lower rent),” adding its balance sheet could encourage “opportunistic M&amp;A.”</p><p><blockquote>Beynon将Cinemark评为“接近第二名，因为其卓越的资产负债表（我们预计2022年杠杆率为3.3倍）、卓越的利润率（2019年比AMC高860个基点）和更多的郊区地点（租金较低）”，并补充说其资产负债表可能会鼓励“机会主义并购”。</blockquote></p><p> He maintained its Outperform rating and added a dollar to raise its target price to $24.</p><p><blockquote>他维持其跑赢大盘评级，并加1美元将目标价上调至24美元。</blockquote></p><p> Also under analysis was&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDI\">Reading</a> International Inc.</b>&nbsp;RDI, which operates art house venues primarily in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">City</a>, Australia and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> Zealand. Beynon noted that while these specialty theaters were strong performers before the pandemic, they now face higher rents, a content inventory challenge and greater competition from other entertainment channels. As a result, he downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral and lowered the price target from $8 to $6.</p><p><blockquote>还在分析中的是<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDI\">阅读</a>国际公司。</b>RDI，主要在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">城市</a>、澳大利亚和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>新西兰。贝农指出，虽然这些专业影院在疫情之前表现强劲，但现在它们面临着更高的租金、内容库存挑战以及来自其他娱乐频道的更大竞争。因此，他将该股评级从跑赢大盘下调至中性，并将目标价从8美元下调至6美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Price Action</b>: AMC's stock is trading down 2.8% to $45.77&nbsp;at publication time.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC价格走势</b>：截至发稿时，AMC股价下跌2.8%，至45.77美元。</blockquote></p><p> Cinemark is down 3% to $17.30, while IMAX is down 1% to $15.55.</p><p><blockquote>Cinemark下跌3%至17.30美元，IMAX下跌1%至15.55美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158045928","content_text":"Macquarie Capital Managing Director and Senior Analyst Chad Beynon on Wednesday downgraded AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.\nAMC-7.28% from Neutral to Underperform and maintained a $6 price target.\nThe Logic Behind The Downgrade: In a new note, Beynon observed that U.S. theatrical box office performance has yet to recover its pre-pandemic levels. While expressing confidence in the theater chains IMAX Corp.\nIMAX-1.21%andCinemark Holdings Inc., Beynon had less enthusiasm for AMC’s prospects in the current market.\n“AMC remains a riskier investment, given rent obligations, higher leverage and a difficult margin trajectory following a more normalized recovery,” he said.\nBeynon observed AMC’s stock performance is still being “heavily influenced” by retail investors, particularly the members of the WallStreetBets forum on Reddit. He noted this created a conspicuous imbalance “with shares still up ~526% L12M (vs. theatre space +11 % and S&P500 +29%). However, shares are trading at ~58x ’22E cons estimates, whereas we generally see this business trading in the 6-9x EBITDA range.”\nHe added that while AMC avoided a bankruptcy filing during the COVID-19 pandemic thanks to its ability to raise additional capital and refinance some of its debt, he questioned whether its near-term future was copacetic.\n“Looking forward, fundamentals are nowhere near where shares are trading given the company carries deferred rent of $420m (2Q21) in addition to its annual rent expense of $1bn,” he wrote, adding that he could foresee how AMC would generate positive free cash flow until 2023.\nThe Competition’s Viability: While downgrading AMC, Beynon hailed IMAX as being “more insulated than peers given recovering trends in China, leading margins and a well-capitalized balance sheet” and maintained an Outperform rating while adding a dollar to raise its target price to $26.\nWith Cinemark, Beynon ranked it as “a close #2, given its superior balance sheet (we’re projecting 3.3x YE22 leverage), superior margins (860bps higher than AMC in 2019) and more suburban locations (lower rent),” adding its balance sheet could encourage “opportunistic M&A.”\nHe maintained its Outperform rating and added a dollar to raise its target price to $24.\nAlso under analysis was Reading International Inc. RDI, which operates art house venues primarily in New York City, Australia and New Zealand. Beynon noted that while these specialty theaters were strong performers before the pandemic, they now face higher rents, a content inventory challenge and greater competition from other entertainment channels. As a result, he downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral and lowered the price target from $8 to $6.\nAMC Price Action: AMC's stock is trading down 2.8% to $45.77 at publication time.\nCinemark is down 3% to $17.30, while IMAX is down 1% to $15.55.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839161349,"gmtCreate":1629127294681,"gmtModify":1631890345220,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Propganda 😂 we buy n hold lol","listText":"Propganda 😂 we buy n hold lol","text":"Propganda 😂 we buy n hold lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839161349","repostId":"1137437693","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137437693","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629116844,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137437693?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 20:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 High-Flying Stocks That May Fall 53% to 84%, According to Wall Street<blockquote>据华尔街称，3只飞涨的股票可能下跌53%至84%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137437693","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Analysts expect these soaring stocks to come crashing back to Earth.\n\nKey Points\n\nThe pandemic and/o","content":"<p>  Analysts expect these soaring stocks to come crashing back to Earth.  <b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote>分析师预计这些飙升的股票将会重挫。<b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The pandemic and/or short squeezes have treated these three companies very well in 2021.</li>  <li>Though Wall Street's price targets can often be taken with a grain of salt, these are likely on point.</li> </ul> It's a great time to be an investor. In the close to 17 months since the widely followed&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">S&amp;P 500</a></b> bottomed out during the coronavirus crash in March 2020, the index has doubled in value. Time and again, patience begets profits on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，疫情和/或轧空对这三家公司的待遇非常好。</li><li>尽管华尔街的价格目标通常可以持保留态度，但这些目标可能是正确的。</li></ul>现在是成为投资者的好时机。在近17个月的时间里，广受关注<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">标普500</a></b>该指数在2020年3月冠状病毒崩溃期间触底，现已翻了一番。耐心一次又一次地在华尔街带来利润。</blockquote></p><p> However, it's also common knowledge that not every stock is going to be a winner. According to Wall Street analysts and investment firms, there are three high-flying stocks that could lose anywhere from 53% to 84% of their value over the coming year, based on the consensus price target for each company.</p><p><blockquote>然而，众所周知，并非每只股票都会成为赢家。据华尔街分析师和投资公司称，根据每家公司的共识目标价，有三只飞涨的股票在未来一年可能会损失53%至84%的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Moderna: Implied downside of 53%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Moderna：隐含下跌53%</b></blockquote></p><p> First up is skyrocketing&nbsp;biotech stock&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna, Inc.</a></b>, which has gained almost 1,900% since the beginning of 2020. Even after pulling back more than 20% from its intraday high last week, Moderna's share price would have to fall by another 53% just to hit the consensus price target of $184.92.</p><p><blockquote>首先是飙升的生物科技股<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">莫德纳公司。</a></b>，自2020年初以来已上涨近1,900%。即使在从上周盘中高点回调超过20%后，Moderna的股价仍必须再下跌53%才能达到184.92美元的一致目标价。</blockquote></p><p> As you can probably guess, the reason Moderna has ascended to the heavens is the success of its emergency-use authorized (EUA) coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine, mRNA-1273. In clinical trials, Moderna's vaccine candidate led to a vaccine efficacy (VE) of about 94%. With the exception of the<b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>/</b><b>BioNTech</b>&nbsp;vaccine, which presented with a 95% VE, no other EUA vaccines have come close on the efficacy front.</p><p><blockquote>正如您可能猜到的那样，Moderna升天的原因是其紧急使用授权(EUA)冠状病毒疾病2019(COVID-19)疫苗mRNA-1273的成功。在临床试验中，Moderna的候选疫苗的疫苗效力（VE）约为94%。除了<b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>/</b><b>BioNTech</b>该疫苗的VE为95%，在功效方面没有其他EUA疫苗接近。</blockquote></p><p> The rise of the COVID-19 delta variant has been another major boon for Moderna. The transmissibility of delta has lifted vaccination rates in a number of developed countries, and it encouraged the U.S. Food and Drug Administration toauthorize a booster shotfor those people with compromised immune systems.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19德尔塔变异毒株的崛起是Moderna的另一大福音。delta的传播性提高了许多发达国家的疫苗接种率，并鼓励了美国。美国食品药品监督管理局将授权为那些免疫系统受损的人注射加强针。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, Moderna's skyrocketing share price appears to indicate that things could worsen before they get better on the COVID-19 front, and that booster shots will offer a beefier stream of revenue than once predicted.</p><p><blockquote>最终，Moderna飙升的股价似乎表明，在COVID-19局势好转之前，情况可能会变得更糟，而加强注射将提供比以前预测的更强劲的收入流。</blockquote></p><p> However, the issue with Moderna's valuation is twofold. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFBC\">First</a>, competition for COVID-19 vaccinations is increasing, not decreasing.&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>&nbsp;is a good bet to receive EUA within the coming months, and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson &amp; Johnson</a></b> shouldn't have any trouble ramping up production of its single-dose vaccine. We'reprobably looking at Moderna's peak revenue year in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Moderna的估值问题是双重的。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFBC\">第一</a>，新冠疫苗接种的竞争正在加剧，而不是减少。<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>在未来几个月内收到EUA是一个不错的选择，并且<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">强生公司</a></b>提高单剂量疫苗的产量应该没有任何问题。我们可能会在2021年看到Moderna的收入高峰年。</blockquote></p><p> The other issue is mRNA-1273 is Moderna's only marketable drug. A $157 billion market cap based on a single therapy that may or may not have staying powersounds very risky.</p><p><blockquote>另一个问题是mRNA-1273是Moderna唯一上市的药物。基于单一疗法的1570亿美元市值可能会也可能不会持续下去，这听起来风险很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dillard's: Implied downside of 55%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Dillard's：隐含下跌55%</b></blockquote></p><p> The next high-flying stock might come as a bit of a surprise... department store chain&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDS\">Dillard's</a></b>. Shares of Dillard's hit an all-time closing high of $196 on Friday, Aug. 13, pushing its market cap north of $4 billion. But according to analysts, which have a consensus price target of $87.33 on the company, this department store could be hitting the clearance rack with a 55% haircut over the next year.</p><p><blockquote>下一只飞涨的股票可能会有点令人惊讶...百货连锁店<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDS\">迪拉德氏</a></b>8月13日星期五，迪拉德的股价创下196美元的历史收盘新高，使其市值突破40亿美元。但分析师对该公司的一致目标价为87.33美元，该百货商店明年可能会降价55%。</blockquote></p><p> If you're wondering why Dillard's stock is up 625% over the trailing year, itsoperating performance would be a good place to start. The company drastically cut costs in the wake of the pandemic, strongly pushed direct-to-consumer sales, and has tightly managed its inventory. Without these burdensome overhead costs, profits have absolutely skyrocketed over the past two quarters as pent-up demand encouraged consumers to get out of their homes and into retail stores.</p><p><blockquote>如果您想知道为什么Dillard的股价在过去一年中上涨了625%，那么其经营业绩将是一个很好的起点。该公司在疫情爆发后大幅削减成本，大力推动直接面向消费者的销售，并严格管理库存。如果没有这些繁重的管理费用，过去两个季度的利润绝对飙升，因为被压抑的需求鼓励消费者走出家门，进入零售店。</blockquote></p><p> Dillard's has done a good job of attempting to boost shareholder value, too. In the 26 weeks, ended July 31, the company repurchased about 1.4 million shares totaling $171 million. This may not sound like a lot, but it reduced the company's outstanding share count by more than 6%.</p><p><blockquote>迪拉德在提高股东价值方面也做得很好。在截至7月31日的26周内，该公司回购了约140万股股票，总计1.71亿美元。这听起来可能不多，但它使公司的流通股数量减少了6%以上。</blockquote></p><p> It's also worth pointing out that Dillard's has a relatively small tradable float, and it's been a fairly heavily short-sold stock. This combination made it the perfect target for a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>还值得指出的是，迪拉德的可交易流通量相对较小，而且是一只被大量卖空的股票。这种组合使其成为轧空的完美目标。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Despite all these positives, it's important for investors to recognize that retail department stores are generally slow-growing and cyclical. Even though Dillard's year-over-year comparisons are lights-out impressive, its 26-week retail sales for 2021 are only 1% higher than its 26-week retail sales for the comparable period in 2019. Further, comparable-store sales are only 4% higher in 2021 compared to 2019. While gross margin is notably higher, this has more to do with cost-cutting than significant sales traction.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有这些积极因素，但投资者重要的是要认识到零售百货商店通常增长缓慢且具有周期性。尽管迪拉德的同比比较令人印象深刻，但其2021年26周零售额仅比2019年同期26周零售额高出1%。此外，与2019年相比，2021年同店销售额仅增长4%。虽然毛利率明显较高，但这更多地与成本削减有关，而不是显着的销售吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Though Dillard's might defy Wall Street for a bit longer than expected, history suggestsit has no chance to keep up this pace. More than likely, Wall Street's price target will eventually become a reality.</p><p><blockquote>尽管迪拉德反抗华尔街的时间可能会比预期的要长一些，但历史表明它没有机会跟上这一步伐。华尔街的价格目标很可能最终会成为现实。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a>: Implied downside of 84%</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>：隐含下行空间84%</b></blockquote></p><p> Sporting the most potential downside, according to Wall Street's consensus price target, is movie theater stock&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a></b>. Although it's one of the year's top-performing stocks, AMC would need to decline by 84% from its current share price to hit the consensus target of $5.25 a share.</p><p><blockquote>根据华尔街的一致目标价，最具潜在下行空间的是电影院股<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a></b>尽管AMC是今年表现最好的股票之一，但它需要从当前股价下跌84%才能达到每股5.25美元的共识目标。</blockquote></p><p> AMC received a huge boost in January, when the company was able to save itself from bankruptcy by issuing common stock and debt. Short-sellers who'd been betting on additional downside in the company were caught off-guard by AMC's capital raise, which effected a viciousshort squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>AMC在一月份获得了巨大的提振，当时该公司通过发行普通股和债务使自己免于破产。一直押注该公司进一步下跌的卖空者对AMC的融资感到措手不及，这导致了恶性轧空。</blockquote></p><p> Today, AMC's impassioned retail investors share the same goal -- i.e., to see another short squeeze take place. As of July 30, 85.85 million shares were held short, representing almost 17% of the float.</p><p><blockquote>如今，AMC热情的散户投资者有着相同的目标——即看到另一次轧空。截至7月30日，8585万股被空头持有，几乎占流通股的17%。</blockquote></p><p> The problem for AMC and its retail investors is that fundamentals always matter, and AMC's operating performance and balance sheet arenothing short of a horror movie. While having increased capacity in its theaters drove sequential quarterly sales higher in the second quarter, it doesn't excuse the fact that AMC has burned through $576.5 million in cash over the past six months or that it's a long way from being profitable.</p><p><blockquote>AMC及其散户投资者面临的问题是，基本面始终很重要，AMC的经营业绩和资产负债表简直就是一部恐怖电影。虽然影院容量的增加推动了第二季度销售额的环比增长，但这并不能原谅AMC在过去六个月中消耗了5.765亿美元现金的事实，也不能原谅它距离盈利还有很长的路要走的事实。</blockquote></p><p> The balance sheet is a bigger concern. AMC ended June with $5.5 billion in corporate borrowing and had an additional $420 million in deferred rent that needs to be paid. With the company effectively maxing out its share issuances, AMC will be forced to rely on its $1.81 billion in cash and $212 million revolving credit facility to make good on its rent obligations and pay off its debt. With its 2026 and 2027 bonds going for 58% and 62% of par value, the clear implication from bondholders isthere's concern AMC won't remain solvent.</p><p><blockquote>资产负债表是一个更大的问题。截至6月底，AMC的企业借款为55亿美元，另外还有4.2亿美元的递延租金需要支付。随着该公司的股票发行实际上达到最大限度，AMC将被迫依靠其18.1亿美元的现金和2.12亿美元的循环信贷额度来偿还租金义务和债务。由于其2026年和2027年债券的价格分别为面值的58%和62%，债券持有人明确表示担心AMC将无法保持偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> The icing on the cake is we'vewitnessed theatrical exclusivity dwindle. For instance, AMC's agreement with&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T Inc</a>'s Warner Bros. offers only a 45-day exclusivity window, which is down from the traditional 75-day to 90-day period of exclusivity prior to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>锦上添花的是我们已经见证了戏剧排他性的减少。例如，AMC与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T公司</a>华纳兄弟公司仅提供45天的独家窗口，比大流行前传统的75天独家期减少到90天。</blockquote></p><p> It may take longer than 12 months, but AMC does look to beheaded back to its February low.</p><p><blockquote>这可能需要超过12个月的时间，但AMC确实有望跌回2月份的低点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 High-Flying Stocks That May Fall 53% to 84%, According to Wall Street<blockquote>据华尔街称，3只飞涨的股票可能下跌53%至84%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 High-Flying Stocks That May Fall 53% to 84%, According to Wall Street<blockquote>据华尔街称，3只飞涨的股票可能下跌53%至84%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-16 20:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Analysts expect these soaring stocks to come crashing back to Earth.  <b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote>分析师预计这些飙升的股票将会重挫。<b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The pandemic and/or short squeezes have treated these three companies very well in 2021.</li>  <li>Though Wall Street's price targets can often be taken with a grain of salt, these are likely on point.</li> </ul> It's a great time to be an investor. In the close to 17 months since the widely followed&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">S&amp;P 500</a></b> bottomed out during the coronavirus crash in March 2020, the index has doubled in value. Time and again, patience begets profits on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，疫情和/或轧空对这三家公司的待遇非常好。</li><li>尽管华尔街的价格目标通常可以持保留态度，但这些目标可能是正确的。</li></ul>现在是成为投资者的好时机。在近17个月的时间里，广受关注<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">标普500</a></b>该指数在2020年3月冠状病毒崩溃期间触底，现已翻了一番。耐心一次又一次地在华尔街带来利润。</blockquote></p><p> However, it's also common knowledge that not every stock is going to be a winner. According to Wall Street analysts and investment firms, there are three high-flying stocks that could lose anywhere from 53% to 84% of their value over the coming year, based on the consensus price target for each company.</p><p><blockquote>然而，众所周知，并非每只股票都会成为赢家。据华尔街分析师和投资公司称，根据每家公司的共识目标价，有三只飞涨的股票在未来一年可能会损失53%至84%的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Moderna: Implied downside of 53%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Moderna：隐含下跌53%</b></blockquote></p><p> First up is skyrocketing&nbsp;biotech stock&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna, Inc.</a></b>, which has gained almost 1,900% since the beginning of 2020. Even after pulling back more than 20% from its intraday high last week, Moderna's share price would have to fall by another 53% just to hit the consensus price target of $184.92.</p><p><blockquote>首先是飙升的生物科技股<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">莫德纳公司。</a></b>，自2020年初以来已上涨近1,900%。即使在从上周盘中高点回调超过20%后，Moderna的股价仍必须再下跌53%才能达到184.92美元的一致目标价。</blockquote></p><p> As you can probably guess, the reason Moderna has ascended to the heavens is the success of its emergency-use authorized (EUA) coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine, mRNA-1273. In clinical trials, Moderna's vaccine candidate led to a vaccine efficacy (VE) of about 94%. With the exception of the<b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>/</b><b>BioNTech</b>&nbsp;vaccine, which presented with a 95% VE, no other EUA vaccines have come close on the efficacy front.</p><p><blockquote>正如您可能猜到的那样，Moderna升天的原因是其紧急使用授权(EUA)冠状病毒疾病2019(COVID-19)疫苗mRNA-1273的成功。在临床试验中，Moderna的候选疫苗的疫苗效力（VE）约为94%。除了<b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>/</b><b>BioNTech</b>该疫苗的VE为95%，在功效方面没有其他EUA疫苗接近。</blockquote></p><p> The rise of the COVID-19 delta variant has been another major boon for Moderna. The transmissibility of delta has lifted vaccination rates in a number of developed countries, and it encouraged the U.S. Food and Drug Administration toauthorize a booster shotfor those people with compromised immune systems.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19德尔塔变异毒株的崛起是Moderna的另一大福音。delta的传播性提高了许多发达国家的疫苗接种率，并鼓励了美国。美国食品药品监督管理局将授权为那些免疫系统受损的人注射加强针。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, Moderna's skyrocketing share price appears to indicate that things could worsen before they get better on the COVID-19 front, and that booster shots will offer a beefier stream of revenue than once predicted.</p><p><blockquote>最终，Moderna飙升的股价似乎表明，在COVID-19局势好转之前，情况可能会变得更糟，而加强注射将提供比以前预测的更强劲的收入流。</blockquote></p><p> However, the issue with Moderna's valuation is twofold. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFBC\">First</a>, competition for COVID-19 vaccinations is increasing, not decreasing.&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>&nbsp;is a good bet to receive EUA within the coming months, and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson &amp; Johnson</a></b> shouldn't have any trouble ramping up production of its single-dose vaccine. We'reprobably looking at Moderna's peak revenue year in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Moderna的估值问题是双重的。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFBC\">第一</a>，新冠疫苗接种的竞争正在加剧，而不是减少。<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>在未来几个月内收到EUA是一个不错的选择，并且<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">强生公司</a></b>提高单剂量疫苗的产量应该没有任何问题。我们可能会在2021年看到Moderna的收入高峰年。</blockquote></p><p> The other issue is mRNA-1273 is Moderna's only marketable drug. A $157 billion market cap based on a single therapy that may or may not have staying powersounds very risky.</p><p><blockquote>另一个问题是mRNA-1273是Moderna唯一上市的药物。基于单一疗法的1570亿美元市值可能会也可能不会持续下去，这听起来风险很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dillard's: Implied downside of 55%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Dillard's：隐含下跌55%</b></blockquote></p><p> The next high-flying stock might come as a bit of a surprise... department store chain&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDS\">Dillard's</a></b>. Shares of Dillard's hit an all-time closing high of $196 on Friday, Aug. 13, pushing its market cap north of $4 billion. But according to analysts, which have a consensus price target of $87.33 on the company, this department store could be hitting the clearance rack with a 55% haircut over the next year.</p><p><blockquote>下一只飞涨的股票可能会有点令人惊讶...百货连锁店<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDS\">迪拉德氏</a></b>8月13日星期五，迪拉德的股价创下196美元的历史收盘新高，使其市值突破40亿美元。但分析师对该公司的一致目标价为87.33美元，该百货商店明年可能会降价55%。</blockquote></p><p> If you're wondering why Dillard's stock is up 625% over the trailing year, itsoperating performance would be a good place to start. The company drastically cut costs in the wake of the pandemic, strongly pushed direct-to-consumer sales, and has tightly managed its inventory. Without these burdensome overhead costs, profits have absolutely skyrocketed over the past two quarters as pent-up demand encouraged consumers to get out of their homes and into retail stores.</p><p><blockquote>如果您想知道为什么Dillard的股价在过去一年中上涨了625%，那么其经营业绩将是一个很好的起点。该公司在疫情爆发后大幅削减成本，大力推动直接面向消费者的销售，并严格管理库存。如果没有这些繁重的管理费用，过去两个季度的利润绝对飙升，因为被压抑的需求鼓励消费者走出家门，进入零售店。</blockquote></p><p> Dillard's has done a good job of attempting to boost shareholder value, too. In the 26 weeks, ended July 31, the company repurchased about 1.4 million shares totaling $171 million. This may not sound like a lot, but it reduced the company's outstanding share count by more than 6%.</p><p><blockquote>迪拉德在提高股东价值方面也做得很好。在截至7月31日的26周内，该公司回购了约140万股股票，总计1.71亿美元。这听起来可能不多，但它使公司的流通股数量减少了6%以上。</blockquote></p><p> It's also worth pointing out that Dillard's has a relatively small tradable float, and it's been a fairly heavily short-sold stock. This combination made it the perfect target for a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>还值得指出的是，迪拉德的可交易流通量相对较小，而且是一只被大量卖空的股票。这种组合使其成为轧空的完美目标。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Despite all these positives, it's important for investors to recognize that retail department stores are generally slow-growing and cyclical. Even though Dillard's year-over-year comparisons are lights-out impressive, its 26-week retail sales for 2021 are only 1% higher than its 26-week retail sales for the comparable period in 2019. Further, comparable-store sales are only 4% higher in 2021 compared to 2019. While gross margin is notably higher, this has more to do with cost-cutting than significant sales traction.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有这些积极因素，但投资者重要的是要认识到零售百货商店通常增长缓慢且具有周期性。尽管迪拉德的同比比较令人印象深刻，但其2021年26周零售额仅比2019年同期26周零售额高出1%。此外，与2019年相比，2021年同店销售额仅增长4%。虽然毛利率明显较高，但这更多地与成本削减有关，而不是显着的销售吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Though Dillard's might defy Wall Street for a bit longer than expected, history suggestsit has no chance to keep up this pace. More than likely, Wall Street's price target will eventually become a reality.</p><p><blockquote>尽管迪拉德反抗华尔街的时间可能会比预期的要长一些，但历史表明它没有机会跟上这一步伐。华尔街的价格目标很可能最终会成为现实。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a>: Implied downside of 84%</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>：隐含下行空间84%</b></blockquote></p><p> Sporting the most potential downside, according to Wall Street's consensus price target, is movie theater stock&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a></b>. Although it's one of the year's top-performing stocks, AMC would need to decline by 84% from its current share price to hit the consensus target of $5.25 a share.</p><p><blockquote>根据华尔街的一致目标价，最具潜在下行空间的是电影院股<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a></b>尽管AMC是今年表现最好的股票之一，但它需要从当前股价下跌84%才能达到每股5.25美元的共识目标。</blockquote></p><p> AMC received a huge boost in January, when the company was able to save itself from bankruptcy by issuing common stock and debt. Short-sellers who'd been betting on additional downside in the company were caught off-guard by AMC's capital raise, which effected a viciousshort squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>AMC在一月份获得了巨大的提振，当时该公司通过发行普通股和债务使自己免于破产。一直押注该公司进一步下跌的卖空者对AMC的融资感到措手不及，这导致了恶性轧空。</blockquote></p><p> Today, AMC's impassioned retail investors share the same goal -- i.e., to see another short squeeze take place. As of July 30, 85.85 million shares were held short, representing almost 17% of the float.</p><p><blockquote>如今，AMC热情的散户投资者有着相同的目标——即看到另一次轧空。截至7月30日，8585万股被空头持有，几乎占流通股的17%。</blockquote></p><p> The problem for AMC and its retail investors is that fundamentals always matter, and AMC's operating performance and balance sheet arenothing short of a horror movie. While having increased capacity in its theaters drove sequential quarterly sales higher in the second quarter, it doesn't excuse the fact that AMC has burned through $576.5 million in cash over the past six months or that it's a long way from being profitable.</p><p><blockquote>AMC及其散户投资者面临的问题是，基本面始终很重要，AMC的经营业绩和资产负债表简直就是一部恐怖电影。虽然影院容量的增加推动了第二季度销售额的环比增长，但这并不能原谅AMC在过去六个月中消耗了5.765亿美元现金的事实，也不能原谅它距离盈利还有很长的路要走的事实。</blockquote></p><p> The balance sheet is a bigger concern. AMC ended June with $5.5 billion in corporate borrowing and had an additional $420 million in deferred rent that needs to be paid. With the company effectively maxing out its share issuances, AMC will be forced to rely on its $1.81 billion in cash and $212 million revolving credit facility to make good on its rent obligations and pay off its debt. With its 2026 and 2027 bonds going for 58% and 62% of par value, the clear implication from bondholders isthere's concern AMC won't remain solvent.</p><p><blockquote>资产负债表是一个更大的问题。截至6月底，AMC的企业借款为55亿美元，另外还有4.2亿美元的递延租金需要支付。随着该公司的股票发行实际上达到最大限度，AMC将被迫依靠其18.1亿美元的现金和2.12亿美元的循环信贷额度来偿还租金义务和债务。由于其2026年和2027年债券的价格分别为面值的58%和62%，债券持有人明确表示担心AMC将无法保持偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> The icing on the cake is we'vewitnessed theatrical exclusivity dwindle. For instance, AMC's agreement with&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T Inc</a>'s Warner Bros. offers only a 45-day exclusivity window, which is down from the traditional 75-day to 90-day period of exclusivity prior to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>锦上添花的是我们已经见证了戏剧排他性的减少。例如，AMC与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T公司</a>华纳兄弟公司仅提供45天的独家窗口，比大流行前传统的75天独家期减少到90天。</blockquote></p><p> It may take longer than 12 months, but AMC does look to beheaded back to its February low.</p><p><blockquote>这可能需要超过12个月的时间，但AMC确实有望跌回2月份的低点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/16/3-high-flying-stocks-may-fall-53-to-84-wall-street/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","JNJ":"强生","DDS":"狄乐百货"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/16/3-high-flying-stocks-may-fall-53-to-84-wall-street/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137437693","content_text":"Analysts expect these soaring stocks to come crashing back to Earth.\n\nKey Points\n\nThe pandemic and/or short squeezes have treated these three companies very well in 2021.\nThough Wall Street's price targets can often be taken with a grain of salt, these are likely on point.\n\nIt's a great time to be an investor. In the close to 17 months since the widely followed S&P 500 bottomed out during the coronavirus crash in March 2020, the index has doubled in value. Time and again, patience begets profits on Wall Street.\nHowever, it's also common knowledge that not every stock is going to be a winner. According to Wall Street analysts and investment firms, there are three high-flying stocks that could lose anywhere from 53% to 84% of their value over the coming year, based on the consensus price target for each company.\nModerna: Implied downside of 53%\nFirst up is skyrocketing biotech stock Moderna, Inc., which has gained almost 1,900% since the beginning of 2020. Even after pulling back more than 20% from its intraday high last week, Moderna's share price would have to fall by another 53% just to hit the consensus price target of $184.92.\nAs you can probably guess, the reason Moderna has ascended to the heavens is the success of its emergency-use authorized (EUA) coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine, mRNA-1273. In clinical trials, Moderna's vaccine candidate led to a vaccine efficacy (VE) of about 94%. With the exception of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, which presented with a 95% VE, no other EUA vaccines have come close on the efficacy front.\nThe rise of the COVID-19 delta variant has been another major boon for Moderna. The transmissibility of delta has lifted vaccination rates in a number of developed countries, and it encouraged the U.S. Food and Drug Administration toauthorize a booster shotfor those people with compromised immune systems.\nUltimately, Moderna's skyrocketing share price appears to indicate that things could worsen before they get better on the COVID-19 front, and that booster shots will offer a beefier stream of revenue than once predicted.\nHowever, the issue with Moderna's valuation is twofold. First, competition for COVID-19 vaccinations is increasing, not decreasing. Novavax is a good bet to receive EUA within the coming months, and Johnson & Johnson shouldn't have any trouble ramping up production of its single-dose vaccine. We'reprobably looking at Moderna's peak revenue year in 2021.\nThe other issue is mRNA-1273 is Moderna's only marketable drug. A $157 billion market cap based on a single therapy that may or may not have staying powersounds very risky.\nDillard's: Implied downside of 55%\nThe next high-flying stock might come as a bit of a surprise... department store chain Dillard's. Shares of Dillard's hit an all-time closing high of $196 on Friday, Aug. 13, pushing its market cap north of $4 billion. But according to analysts, which have a consensus price target of $87.33 on the company, this department store could be hitting the clearance rack with a 55% haircut over the next year.\nIf you're wondering why Dillard's stock is up 625% over the trailing year, itsoperating performance would be a good place to start. The company drastically cut costs in the wake of the pandemic, strongly pushed direct-to-consumer sales, and has tightly managed its inventory. Without these burdensome overhead costs, profits have absolutely skyrocketed over the past two quarters as pent-up demand encouraged consumers to get out of their homes and into retail stores.\nDillard's has done a good job of attempting to boost shareholder value, too. In the 26 weeks, ended July 31, the company repurchased about 1.4 million shares totaling $171 million. This may not sound like a lot, but it reduced the company's outstanding share count by more than 6%.\nIt's also worth pointing out that Dillard's has a relatively small tradable float, and it's been a fairly heavily short-sold stock. This combination made it the perfect target for a short squeeze.\nDespite all these positives, it's important for investors to recognize that retail department stores are generally slow-growing and cyclical. Even though Dillard's year-over-year comparisons are lights-out impressive, its 26-week retail sales for 2021 are only 1% higher than its 26-week retail sales for the comparable period in 2019. Further, comparable-store sales are only 4% higher in 2021 compared to 2019. While gross margin is notably higher, this has more to do with cost-cutting than significant sales traction.\nThough Dillard's might defy Wall Street for a bit longer than expected, history suggestsit has no chance to keep up this pace. More than likely, Wall Street's price target will eventually become a reality.\nAMC Entertainment: Implied downside of 84%\nSporting the most potential downside, according to Wall Street's consensus price target, is movie theater stock AMC Entertainment. Although it's one of the year's top-performing stocks, AMC would need to decline by 84% from its current share price to hit the consensus target of $5.25 a share.\nAMC received a huge boost in January, when the company was able to save itself from bankruptcy by issuing common stock and debt. Short-sellers who'd been betting on additional downside in the company were caught off-guard by AMC's capital raise, which effected a viciousshort squeeze.\nToday, AMC's impassioned retail investors share the same goal -- i.e., to see another short squeeze take place. As of July 30, 85.85 million shares were held short, representing almost 17% of the float.\nThe problem for AMC and its retail investors is that fundamentals always matter, and AMC's operating performance and balance sheet arenothing short of a horror movie. While having increased capacity in its theaters drove sequential quarterly sales higher in the second quarter, it doesn't excuse the fact that AMC has burned through $576.5 million in cash over the past six months or that it's a long way from being profitable.\nThe balance sheet is a bigger concern. AMC ended June with $5.5 billion in corporate borrowing and had an additional $420 million in deferred rent that needs to be paid. With the company effectively maxing out its share issuances, AMC will be forced to rely on its $1.81 billion in cash and $212 million revolving credit facility to make good on its rent obligations and pay off its debt. With its 2026 and 2027 bonds going for 58% and 62% of par value, the clear implication from bondholders isthere's concern AMC won't remain solvent.\nThe icing on the cake is we'vewitnessed theatrical exclusivity dwindle. For instance, AMC's agreement with AT&T Inc's Warner Bros. offers only a 45-day exclusivity window, which is down from the traditional 75-day to 90-day period of exclusivity prior to the pandemic.\nIt may take longer than 12 months, but AMC does look to beheaded back to its February low.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,"JNJ":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"DDS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899612204,"gmtCreate":1628177610308,"gmtModify":1631890345224,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let his have the minor victory lure him in.. Then make him bankrupt why HF like to bully retailor Investor and alway think their way is right wtf... We should keep buying and show u&nbsp; true color...&nbsp;","listText":"Let his have the minor victory lure him in.. Then make him bankrupt why HF like to bully retailor Investor and alway think their way is right wtf... We should keep buying and show u&nbsp; true color...&nbsp;","text":"Let his have the minor victory lure him in.. Then make him bankrupt why HF like to bully retailor Investor and alway think their way is right wtf... We should keep buying and show u true color...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899612204","repostId":"1158295123","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1740,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804767548,"gmtCreate":1627981465384,"gmtModify":1631890345226,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alot of rubbish writer trying to bash&nbsp; amc but lol if it is stock cmi&nbsp; the ape&nbsp;will not buy and hold.. The HF&nbsp; as usual propganda engage writer lol&nbsp;","listText":"Alot of rubbish writer trying to bash&nbsp; amc but lol if it is stock cmi&nbsp; the ape&nbsp;will not buy and hold.. The HF&nbsp; as usual propganda engage writer lol&nbsp;","text":"Alot of rubbish writer trying to bash amc but lol if it is stock cmi the ape will not buy and hold.. The HF as usual propganda engage writer lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804767548","repostId":"1148437644","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805557627,"gmtCreate":1627893738469,"gmtModify":1631890345232,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wohoo&nbsp;","listText":"Wohoo&nbsp;","text":"Wohoo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805557627","repostId":"2156161819","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172887967,"gmtCreate":1626951880359,"gmtModify":1631890345233,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol propganda lol&nbsp;","listText":"Lol propganda lol&nbsp;","text":"Lol propganda lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172887967","repostId":"1192458370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192458370","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626938362,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192458370?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 15:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192458370","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - ","content":"<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p><p><blockquote>这与本月初的看涨情绪截然不同，当时该行首次正确地指出，S&amp;P正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，7月1日至15日期间公布了一系列新高（在16日和19日抛售之前）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p><p><blockquote>...在对为什么“空头必须回补”进行冗长的合理化解释之后，高盛最近几天出人意料地变得看跌，在高盛流量交易员约翰·弗洛德周一敦促高盛客户“不要逢低买入”两天后（剧透警告：他们做到了），他的交易部门同事斯科特·鲁布纳（Scott Rubner）发表了一份报告，预览了为什么他预计未来几天会出现调整，并将持续到8月底的杰克逊霍尔研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p><p><blockquote>我们在下面摘录他的报告，其中包含高盛8月份“修正”论点背后的关键论点，包括战术性资金流动、卖家加速以及GS股票交易大厅的反馈。</blockquote></p><p> So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p><p><blockquote>所以事不宜迟，下面是鲁布纳，他展示了他的“<b><i>8月份修正的11点清单”</i></b>，首先注意到“<i>过去48小时内我收件箱/IB中出现的第一个问题。当资金外流且购买需求放缓时，股市会发生什么？</i>正如我们在下面读到的，最合适的答案是“没什么好的。”</blockquote></p><p>   <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i>   <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>  <u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p><p><blockquote><i>11点清单-一致的客户反馈，以快速降低股票风险，从而降低杰克逊霍尔的潜在购买需求。共识反馈似乎要求修正-5%，实际上达到了-4%。这是本周即将进入你收件箱的话题的回顾。我认为今天早上的反弹会随着当天早些时候买票的完成而消退。</i><i><b>“逢高卖出”是与逢低买入的新动态。</b></i><u><b>1.季节性疲软</b></u>——自1928年以来，我们刚刚结束了一年中最好的两周时期。周五期权到期结束了一年中最好的季节性时期。<b>八月季节性对市场不利，整个八月呈下降趋势，为一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期</b>.今天你在这里，杰克逊霍尔是这张图表的低点。自1950年以来，72年来，S&amp;P指数有19次在上半年上涨至少超过10%。在强劲的1H之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降-51个基点，然后反弹走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>2.年度最大流出量</b></u>-投资者在7月份向市场分配资金，我们已经看到了这些创纪录的资金流入。这是今年股市最大的动态。资金流入继续以创纪录的速度增长，2021年年流入量为1.2万亿美元。401k资金主要流入S&amp;P和NDX，而不是ROW。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.8月份预测流量的逆转</b></u>——8月份股权流入并不常见。在过去的30年里，<b>八月通常是一年中最大的资金流出</b>.-15个基点的资产管理规模通常会在8月份离开股市基金，我们模拟价值约22万亿美元的股票待售。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>4.流出续。</u></b>需要明确的是，-330亿美元在调整市值后并不是一个重要的数字，但更重要的是它不是流入。鉴于资金流入抬高了最大和最大市值指数权重，该指数水平仍保持在ATHs。周一，我们看到一个巨大的MOC失衡出售，这是不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>5.被动流动推动最大市值</b></u>-仅在今年上半年，被动型ETF就创下了有记录以来最好的全年资金流入。(+500b)。我每天都看录像带记录大量的MOC失衡在美国东部时间下午3:50购买，<b>但是如果这种动力消失了呢？</b>请记住，流入SPDR标普500指数ETF的1美元将流入前5名公司0.23美分，流入QQQ的1美元将流入前5名公司0.41美分。如果流入转为流出，您将不再看到广泛的指数动态。<b>那么投资者需要决定哪个板块成为流出的资金来源。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p><p><blockquote>这对标普500有多重要？重要的！</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>  <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>  <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>  <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>全球股票：1年期：+600B美元被动（入）与0.0 B美元主动（出）=&gt;600B美元。</li><li>全球股票：5年期：+$2.30 T被动（入）vs.-$1.90 T主动（出）=&gt;$4.2 T</li><li>全球股票：10年期：+$4T被动（入）vs.-$3.0 T主动（出）=&gt;$7.0 T</li><li>当前全球股票主动资产管理规模为10.099吨，超过当前全球股票被动资产管理规模7.225吨。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>旁注：ETF占名义执行量的36%，为2020年3月/4月以来的最后水平。（年初至今平均值）=24%。你看到SQQQ周一的巨量（3倍空头QQQ）了吗？</i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>六、单一股票评级</b></u>-这是非常类似于2020年7月和8月看涨期权期权交易的结果吹顶。提醒一下，在看涨期权期权交易量开始消退后，标准普尔在2020年9月抛售了-392个基点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>  <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>  <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>  <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>7月份，Option notional的平均交易量创下了每天+5500亿美元的历史纪录。交易量最大的3只股票（AAPL、AMZN和TSLA）的日交易量为300B美元。期权和股票的广度都很低。</li><li>“在4000份可交易的单一股票期权中，前3名占每日平均名义交易量的56%。加上接下来的7份，这一比例跃升至72%。”</li><li>“换句话说，前10名底层股票平均每天的名义交易量是底部3990点的3倍”</li><li>这是一个需要监控的重要动态。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>7.看涨期权期权续。</b></u>-零售业已从每周在GME和AMC上交易看涨期权期权（每天名义价值仅为6B美元）转向居家策略。每日期权交易量最高的公司也是指数权重最大的公司。除了ETF流量之外，散户看涨期权期权购买狂潮也导致了单一股票的街头空头每周伽马值。今天交易的75%的单一股票期权的到期时间为两周或更短。<b>换句话说，鉴于GS YOLO风险情绪篮子已经滚动，AAPL下一步是否需要赶上（或者至少看不到YOLO流量）。</b></blockquote></p><p> $181bln/day AMZN</p><p><blockquote>1810亿美元/天AMZN</blockquote></p><p> $ 82bln/day TSLA</p><p><blockquote>820亿美元/天TSLA</blockquote></p><p> $ 36bln/day AAPL</p><p><blockquote>360亿美元/天AAPL</blockquote></p><p> --------------</p><p><blockquote>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>TSLA/AMZN/AAPL总额：2990亿美元/天——如果大型科技股的看涨期权交易量下降会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>  <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>  <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>  <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>260亿美元/天NVDA</li><li>140亿美元/天GOOGL</li><li>110亿美元/天FB</li><li>100亿美元/天MSFT</li><li>80亿美元/天的商店</li><li>80亿美元/天GOOG</li><li>80亿美元/天NFLX</li><li>70亿美元/天阿里巴巴</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA总计：900亿美元/天</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>40亿美元/天AMC</li><li>20亿美元/天GME</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC/GME总额：60亿美元/天——没有莫约洛？见下图。</b></blockquote></p><p> All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p><p><blockquote>所有其他基础资产：1410亿美元/天</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>单一股票期权市场总额：</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>  <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>  <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li> </ul> --------------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2990亿美元/天TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li><li>900亿美元/天GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li><li>60亿美元/天AMC/GME</li><li>1410亿美元/天所有其他基础</li></ul>--------------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>$537bln/day Total</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5370亿美元/天总计</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>8.期权Gamma平仓</u></b>-期权到期刚刚下跌-85%的市场多头伽马。市场现在有能力更自由地波动，交易更少的多头伽马。上周的每一天，随着交易商重新对冲他们的伽马（逢低买入），市场都会在收盘时反弹。我担心没有伽马对冲和被动需求的夏季日终流动性。我认为还会有“机构”需求购买杰克逊霍尔对冲基金，消除多头伽马，让华尔街做空以对冲下行。本周我们看到的看跌期权和看跌价差比2021年任何一周都多。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>  <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>  <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>  <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>  <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li> </ul> <b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周三(7/14)SPX gamma=+$4,625 B</li><li>周四(7/15)SPX gamma=+$3,620 B</li><li>周五(7/16)SPX gamma=+$3,136 B</li><li>周一(7/19)SPX gamma=+$2,698 B</li><li>周二(7/20)SPX Gamma=+$713B。</li></ul><b>在过去的5天里，多头标普500伽马减少了-85%，交易商的多头伽马减少了。</b>这种动态改变了市场行为，尽管成交量走高，但我们几乎没有看到系统覆盖的需求。这是新的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>9.系统性</b></u>-非经济风险已经接近最大敞口，并且几乎没有进一步增加的空间。到目前为止，还没有触发阈值水平，但重要的是要注意缺乏从这里添加的能力，这不对称地扭曲了下行方向。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>  <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>  <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>CTA</b>-1年排名90%百分位数，3年排名84%百分位数。</li><li><b>GS型号</b>-下周将出售90亿美元的股票。CTA是处于上涨带、下跌带、下跌大带的卖家。这并不常见。检查未来1个月的下行大不对称。</li><li><b>GS短期CTA ES1翻转电平</b>=$4,257.90.我们昨天跳闸了这个断路器，但是今天上午更高。我预计GS卖出预期会增加。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>b)体积控制-1年等级为86%百分位数，3年等级为75%百分位数。仅供参考。SPX看跌期权/看涨期权比率昨日创下一年新高。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>c)风险平价-1年等级为100%百分位数，3年等级为53%百分位数。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>d)总系统性–1年等级为92%百分位数，3年等级为80%百分位数。这很重要。这种非情绪化的需求是最大的，卖家会更低。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>10.流动资金</b></u>-非官方的Rubner外出展望(OOO)回复表。我上周的笔记是“几周后见”或“去钓鱼”的办公室回扣最多的一周。即将到来的杰克逊霍尔日历很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>  <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>  <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>  <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>  <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li> </ol> *** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>接下来的几周，12个月来首次延长假期，等等，因为杰克逊霍尔提前了。</li><li>杰克逊霍尔，8月26日（星期四）-8月28日（星期六）-周五可能是关键的日历，但周六也可能很重要。这将对冲移至下周。</li><li>劳动节，9月6日（周一交换假期）-今年晚些时候</li><li>大约孩子开学第一天，9月7日（星期二）</li><li>流动性=八月夏季-ZZZZ。在昨天的抛售中，账面流动性大幅下降。</li></ol>***尽管在清单中排名第10。这实际上是图表#1。昨天屏幕上的流动性大幅枯竭。该图表上周一达到3600万美元的峰值，昨天达到1081万美元。这意味着螺丝流动性在一周内下降了2500万美元或约70%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>11.回购</b></u>：回购来了，但股权发行也来了，中和了回购冲动。当公司遇到公司时。来自销售和交易同事John Flood在他最近的交易笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> <i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“这是一场纸面派对，而且这张纸面越来越难放置。上周我们在美国对11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周我们已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月深处尤其值得注意。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>  <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上周股票发行量为62亿美元，而2000年以来7月份每周平均发行量为34亿美元。</li><li>上周有27笔股票交易进入市场，而自2000年以来7月份平均每周15笔交易。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>底线：</b></i><i>在八月份把战术资金流清单放在你的雷达上。8月份技术市场结构动态发生较大变化</i><i><b>.我认为会有下跌（-5%），应该在杰克逊霍尔后期买入。</b></i><i>人们的共识是呼吁股市进行更大规模的调整，考虑到系统中的资本数量，我认为这是不可能的。如果我们在卖家走低时触发关键水平下跌，我会改变我的语气。如果8月份的资金外流确实发生，我认为鉴于高度集中和最大的被动影响，科技股的表现不如周期性价值重新开放。</i><i><b>一旦我们在8月份看到第一次流出，这将是战术性空头的宏观触发器</b></i><i>.敬请关注，紧盯流动性。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEntering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 15:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p><p><blockquote>这与本月初的看涨情绪截然不同，当时该行首次正确地指出，S&amp;P正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，7月1日至15日期间公布了一系列新高（在16日和19日抛售之前）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p><p><blockquote>...在对为什么“空头必须回补”进行冗长的合理化解释之后，高盛最近几天出人意料地变得看跌，在高盛流量交易员约翰·弗洛德周一敦促高盛客户“不要逢低买入”两天后（剧透警告：他们做到了），他的交易部门同事斯科特·鲁布纳（Scott Rubner）发表了一份报告，预览了为什么他预计未来几天会出现调整，并将持续到8月底的杰克逊霍尔研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p><p><blockquote>我们在下面摘录他的报告，其中包含高盛8月份“修正”论点背后的关键论点，包括战术性资金流动、卖家加速以及GS股票交易大厅的反馈。</blockquote></p><p> So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p><p><blockquote>所以事不宜迟，下面是鲁布纳，他展示了他的“<b><i>8月份修正的11点清单”</i></b>，首先注意到“<i>过去48小时内我收件箱/IB中出现的第一个问题。当资金外流且购买需求放缓时，股市会发生什么？</i>正如我们在下面读到的，最合适的答案是“没什么好的。”</blockquote></p><p>   <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i>   <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>  <u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p><p><blockquote><i>11点清单-一致的客户反馈，以快速降低股票风险，从而降低杰克逊霍尔的潜在购买需求。共识反馈似乎要求修正-5%，实际上达到了-4%。这是本周即将进入你收件箱的话题的回顾。我认为今天早上的反弹会随着当天早些时候买票的完成而消退。</i><i><b>“逢高卖出”是与逢低买入的新动态。</b></i><u><b>1.季节性疲软</b></u>——自1928年以来，我们刚刚结束了一年中最好的两周时期。周五期权到期结束了一年中最好的季节性时期。<b>八月季节性对市场不利，整个八月呈下降趋势，为一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期</b>.今天你在这里，杰克逊霍尔是这张图表的低点。自1950年以来，72年来，S&amp;P指数有19次在上半年上涨至少超过10%。在强劲的1H之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降-51个基点，然后反弹走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>2.年度最大流出量</b></u>-投资者在7月份向市场分配资金，我们已经看到了这些创纪录的资金流入。这是今年股市最大的动态。资金流入继续以创纪录的速度增长，2021年年流入量为1.2万亿美元。401k资金主要流入S&amp;P和NDX，而不是ROW。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.8月份预测流量的逆转</b></u>——8月份股权流入并不常见。在过去的30年里，<b>八月通常是一年中最大的资金流出</b>.-15个基点的资产管理规模通常会在8月份离开股市基金，我们模拟价值约22万亿美元的股票待售。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>4.流出续。</u></b>需要明确的是，-330亿美元在调整市值后并不是一个重要的数字，但更重要的是它不是流入。鉴于资金流入抬高了最大和最大市值指数权重，该指数水平仍保持在ATHs。周一，我们看到一个巨大的MOC失衡出售，这是不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>5.被动流动推动最大市值</b></u>-仅在今年上半年，被动型ETF就创下了有记录以来最好的全年资金流入。(+500b)。我每天都看录像带记录大量的MOC失衡在美国东部时间下午3:50购买，<b>但是如果这种动力消失了呢？</b>请记住，流入SPDR标普500指数ETF的1美元将流入前5名公司0.23美分，流入QQQ的1美元将流入前5名公司0.41美分。如果流入转为流出，您将不再看到广泛的指数动态。<b>那么投资者需要决定哪个板块成为流出的资金来源。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p><p><blockquote>这对标普500有多重要？重要的！</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>  <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>  <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>  <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>全球股票：1年期：+600B美元被动（入）与0.0 B美元主动（出）=&gt;600B美元。</li><li>全球股票：5年期：+$2.30 T被动（入）vs.-$1.90 T主动（出）=&gt;$4.2 T</li><li>全球股票：10年期：+$4T被动（入）vs.-$3.0 T主动（出）=&gt;$7.0 T</li><li>当前全球股票主动资产管理规模为10.099吨，超过当前全球股票被动资产管理规模7.225吨。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>旁注：ETF占名义执行量的36%，为2020年3月/4月以来的最后水平。（年初至今平均值）=24%。你看到SQQQ周一的巨量（3倍空头QQQ）了吗？</i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>六、单一股票评级</b></u>-这是非常类似于2020年7月和8月看涨期权期权交易的结果吹顶。提醒一下，在看涨期权期权交易量开始消退后，标准普尔在2020年9月抛售了-392个基点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>  <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>  <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>  <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>7月份，Option notional的平均交易量创下了每天+5500亿美元的历史纪录。交易量最大的3只股票（AAPL、AMZN和TSLA）的日交易量为300B美元。期权和股票的广度都很低。</li><li>“在4000份可交易的单一股票期权中，前3名占每日平均名义交易量的56%。加上接下来的7份，这一比例跃升至72%。”</li><li>“换句话说，前10名底层股票平均每天的名义交易量是底部3990点的3倍”</li><li>这是一个需要监控的重要动态。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>7.看涨期权期权续。</b></u>-零售业已从每周在GME和AMC上交易看涨期权期权（每天名义价值仅为6B美元）转向居家策略。每日期权交易量最高的公司也是指数权重最大的公司。除了ETF流量之外，散户看涨期权期权购买狂潮也导致了单一股票的街头空头每周伽马值。今天交易的75%的单一股票期权的到期时间为两周或更短。<b>换句话说，鉴于GS YOLO风险情绪篮子已经滚动，AAPL下一步是否需要赶上（或者至少看不到YOLO流量）。</b></blockquote></p><p> $181bln/day AMZN</p><p><blockquote>1810亿美元/天AMZN</blockquote></p><p> $ 82bln/day TSLA</p><p><blockquote>820亿美元/天TSLA</blockquote></p><p> $ 36bln/day AAPL</p><p><blockquote>360亿美元/天AAPL</blockquote></p><p> --------------</p><p><blockquote>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>TSLA/AMZN/AAPL总额：2990亿美元/天——如果大型科技股的看涨期权交易量下降会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>  <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>  <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>  <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>260亿美元/天NVDA</li><li>140亿美元/天GOOGL</li><li>110亿美元/天FB</li><li>100亿美元/天MSFT</li><li>80亿美元/天的商店</li><li>80亿美元/天GOOG</li><li>80亿美元/天NFLX</li><li>70亿美元/天阿里巴巴</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA总计：900亿美元/天</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>40亿美元/天AMC</li><li>20亿美元/天GME</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC/GME总额：60亿美元/天——没有莫约洛？见下图。</b></blockquote></p><p> All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p><p><blockquote>所有其他基础资产：1410亿美元/天</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>单一股票期权市场总额：</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>  <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>  <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li> </ul> --------------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2990亿美元/天TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li><li>900亿美元/天GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li><li>60亿美元/天AMC/GME</li><li>1410亿美元/天所有其他基础</li></ul>--------------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>$537bln/day Total</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5370亿美元/天总计</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>8.期权Gamma平仓</u></b>-期权到期刚刚下跌-85%的市场多头伽马。市场现在有能力更自由地波动，交易更少的多头伽马。上周的每一天，随着交易商重新对冲他们的伽马（逢低买入），市场都会在收盘时反弹。我担心没有伽马对冲和被动需求的夏季日终流动性。我认为还会有“机构”需求购买杰克逊霍尔对冲基金，消除多头伽马，让华尔街做空以对冲下行。本周我们看到的看跌期权和看跌价差比2021年任何一周都多。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>  <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>  <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>  <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>  <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li> </ul> <b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周三(7/14)SPX gamma=+$4,625 B</li><li>周四(7/15)SPX gamma=+$3,620 B</li><li>周五(7/16)SPX gamma=+$3,136 B</li><li>周一(7/19)SPX gamma=+$2,698 B</li><li>周二(7/20)SPX Gamma=+$713B。</li></ul><b>在过去的5天里，多头标普500伽马减少了-85%，交易商的多头伽马减少了。</b>这种动态改变了市场行为，尽管成交量走高，但我们几乎没有看到系统覆盖的需求。这是新的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>9.系统性</b></u>-非经济风险已经接近最大敞口，并且几乎没有进一步增加的空间。到目前为止，还没有触发阈值水平，但重要的是要注意缺乏从这里添加的能力，这不对称地扭曲了下行方向。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>  <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>  <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>CTA</b>-1年排名90%百分位数，3年排名84%百分位数。</li><li><b>GS型号</b>-下周将出售90亿美元的股票。CTA是处于上涨带、下跌带、下跌大带的卖家。这并不常见。检查未来1个月的下行大不对称。</li><li><b>GS短期CTA ES1翻转电平</b>=$4,257.90.我们昨天跳闸了这个断路器，但是今天上午更高。我预计GS卖出预期会增加。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>b)体积控制-1年等级为86%百分位数，3年等级为75%百分位数。仅供参考。SPX看跌期权/看涨期权比率昨日创下一年新高。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>c)风险平价-1年等级为100%百分位数，3年等级为53%百分位数。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>d)总系统性–1年等级为92%百分位数，3年等级为80%百分位数。这很重要。这种非情绪化的需求是最大的，卖家会更低。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>10.流动资金</b></u>-非官方的Rubner外出展望(OOO)回复表。我上周的笔记是“几周后见”或“去钓鱼”的办公室回扣最多的一周。即将到来的杰克逊霍尔日历很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>  <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>  <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>  <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>  <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li> </ol> *** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>接下来的几周，12个月来首次延长假期，等等，因为杰克逊霍尔提前了。</li><li>杰克逊霍尔，8月26日（星期四）-8月28日（星期六）-周五可能是关键的日历，但周六也可能很重要。这将对冲移至下周。</li><li>劳动节，9月6日（周一交换假期）-今年晚些时候</li><li>大约孩子开学第一天，9月7日（星期二）</li><li>流动性=八月夏季-ZZZZ。在昨天的抛售中，账面流动性大幅下降。</li></ol>***尽管在清单中排名第10。这实际上是图表#1。昨天屏幕上的流动性大幅枯竭。该图表上周一达到3600万美元的峰值，昨天达到1081万美元。这意味着螺丝流动性在一周内下降了2500万美元或约70%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>11.回购</b></u>：回购来了，但股权发行也来了，中和了回购冲动。当公司遇到公司时。来自销售和交易同事John Flood在他最近的交易笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> <i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“这是一场纸面派对，而且这张纸面越来越难放置。上周我们在美国对11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周我们已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月深处尤其值得注意。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>  <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上周股票发行量为62亿美元，而2000年以来7月份每周平均发行量为34亿美元。</li><li>上周有27笔股票交易进入市场，而自2000年以来7月份平均每周15笔交易。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>底线：</b></i><i>在八月份把战术资金流清单放在你的雷达上。8月份技术市场结构动态发生较大变化</i><i><b>.我认为会有下跌（-5%），应该在杰克逊霍尔后期买入。</b></i><i>人们的共识是呼吁股市进行更大规模的调整，考虑到系统中的资本数量，我认为这是不可能的。如果我们在卖家走低时触发关键水平下跌，我会改变我的语气。如果8月份的资金外流确实发生，我认为鉴于高度集中和最大的被动影响，科技股的表现不如周期性价值重新开放。</i><i><b>一旦我们在8月份看到第一次流出，这将是战术性空头的宏观触发器</b></i><i>.敬请关注，紧盯流动性。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192458370","content_text":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...\n\n... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.\nHis note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.\nSo without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"11 point checklist for an August correction\", starting by noting that \"the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"\n\n11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.\n“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.\n\n1. Weak Seasonals- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&P is up at least >10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.\n\n2. Largest outflows of the year- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&P and NDX rather than ROW.\n\n3. Reversal of flows predicted for August- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,August typically sees the largest outflows of the year. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.\n\n4. Outflows cont.To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.\n\n5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,but what if this dynamic fades.Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.\nJust how important has this been for the S&P 500? Important!\n\nGlobal Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = >$600B.\nGlobal Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = >$4.2T\nGlobal Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = >$7.0T\nCurrent Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds > Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.\n\n\nSide note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?\n6. Single Stock Calls- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.\n\nOption notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.\n\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"\n\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”\nThis is an important dynamic to monitor.\n\n\n7. Call Options cont.- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).\n$181bln/day AMZN\n$ 82bln/day TSLA\n$ 36bln/day AAPL\n--------------\nTOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day  ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?\n\n$ 26bln/day NVDA\n$ 14bln/day GOOGL\n$ 11bln/day FB\n$ 10bln/day MSFT\n$  8bln/day SHOP\n$  8bln/day GOOG\n$  8bln/day NFLX\n$  7bln/day BABA\n\n--------------\nTOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day\n\n$  4bln/day AMC\n$  2bln/day GME\n\n--------------\nTOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day  ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.\nAll other underlyings: $141bln/day\nTotal single stock option market:\n\n$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL\n$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA\n$  6bln/day AMC/GME\n$141bln/day All other underlyings\n\n--------------------\n$537bln/day Total\n\n8. Option Gamma Unwinds- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.\n\nWednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B\nThursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B\nFriday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B\nMonday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B\nTuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.\n\nthe Long S&P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.\n\n9. Systematic- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.\n\nCTA- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.\nGS models-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.\nGS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.\n\n\nb) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.\n\nc) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.\n\nd) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.\n\n10. Liquidity- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.\n\nnext few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.\nJackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.\nLabor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year\napproximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)\nLiquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.\n\n*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.\n\n11. Buybacks: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.\n“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“\n\nLast week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.\nLast week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.\n\n\nBottom Line:Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170430921,"gmtCreate":1626444940263,"gmtModify":1631890345236,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fake news haahaha rubbish again we buy an&nbsp;hold&nbsp;","listText":"Fake news haahaha rubbish again we buy an&nbsp;hold&nbsp;","text":"Fake news haahaha rubbish again we buy an hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170430921","repostId":"2151450981","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144912204,"gmtCreate":1626260606808,"gmtModify":1631890345237,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol rubbish article","listText":"Lol rubbish article","text":"Lol rubbish article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144912204","repostId":"2151810564","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146751957,"gmtCreate":1626100494179,"gmtModify":1631890345243,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fake news lol hedge fund must be worry... This mean amc going to 🚀 buy and hold hold lol&nbsp;","listText":"Fake news lol hedge fund must be worry... This mean amc going to 🚀 buy and hold hold lol&nbsp;","text":"Fake news lol hedge fund must be worry... This mean amc going to 🚀 buy and hold hold lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146751957","repostId":"2150580297","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141194850,"gmtCreate":1625841265470,"gmtModify":1631892187940,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol they under estimate retailor Investor hahaha we buy and hold and hedge fund bleed to death and stock 🚀 hhahaha","listText":"Lol they under estimate retailor Investor hahaha we buy and hold and hedge fund bleed to death and stock 🚀 hhahaha","text":"Lol they under estimate retailor Investor hahaha we buy and hold and hedge fund bleed to death and stock 🚀 hhahaha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141194850","repostId":"1173374462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173374462","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625840008,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173374462?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 22:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stocks Like GameStop and AMC Reflect Market Reality<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC等模因股票反映了市场现实</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173374462","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Gamestop (GME) made some investors rich… and then it broke many more. Investing in AMC Entertainment","content":"<p>Gamestop&nbsp;(<b>GME</b>)&nbsp;made some investors rich… and then it broke many more. Investing in AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>)&nbsp;did the exact same thing. These two stocks represent, if not failing businesses, at least ailing ones; companies that struggled to keep up with the new economy even before the pandemic shut down large swaths of it. Yet over the past few months they have posted some of the most volatile gains and losses on the market.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站(<b>GME</b>）让一些投资者变得富有……然后又破产了更多。投资AMC院线（<b>AMC</b>）做了完全相同的事情。这两只股票即使不是失败的企业，也至少代表了陷入困境的企业；甚至在大流行之前就努力跟上新经济的公司就关闭了大部分新经济。然而，在过去的几个月里，他们公布了市场上一些最不稳定的收益和损失。</blockquote></p><p> How?</p><p><blockquote>如何？</blockquote></p><p> It’s down to what Real Money's Timothy Collins calls the market of “meme stock hyperbole.” But, he writes, is it really all that different from how trading has always worked?</p><p><blockquote>这取决于Real Money的Timothy Collins评级市场的“模因股票夸张”。但是，他写道，这真的与交易一直以来的运作方式有那么大的不同吗？</blockquote></p><p> Have you ever really thought about the phrases 'to the moon' or 'conviction buy,' and how they mess with out perception of fair value?</p><p><blockquote>您是否真正想过“登月”或“信念购买”这两个短语，以及它们如何扰乱我们对公允价值的看法？</blockquote></p><p> \"Initially, I rolled my eyes at the continued use of the phrase 'To The Moon,'\" Collins says. \"It's not like 'Strong Buy with a price target of $65', for instance. 'To the moon' is completely arbitrary and open to interpretation, but then again so are most things about valuation, when you think about it,\" Collins wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“最初，我对继续使用‘去月球’这个词翻了个白眼，”柯林斯说。“例如，这不像‘强力买入，目标价为65美元’。‘登月’完全是任意的，可以进行解释，但话又说回来，当你仔细想想时，大多数关于估值的事情也是如此，”柯林斯写道。</blockquote></p><p> \"For instance, when an analyst pounds the table on a stock, how is that different from 'to the moon?' Or when someone says, 'all in.' Are they really all in? Did they cash in all their assets, pool the liquidity, and buy every share they possibly could? Probably not. Actually, I'd say definitely not 99.9999% of the time. Of course, there's always that one person,\" Collins said.</p><p><blockquote>“例如，当分析师在一只股票上敲打桌子时，这与‘飞向月球’有什么不同？或者当有人说‘全押’时。他们真的全押了吗？他们是否兑现了所有资产，汇集了流动性，并尽可能地购买了每一股？可能不会。事实上，我会说绝对不是99.9999%的情况。当然，总有那么一个人，”柯林斯说。</blockquote></p><p> \"But the point isWall Street has been arbitraryfor years. We can't even have a standard rating system. Is it 'Neutral' or 'Hold?' And really, do I want to hold something that is only in the middle of your range? No.\"</p><p><blockquote>“但关键是，华尔街多年来一直是武断的。我们甚至不能有一个标准的评级系统。它是‘中性’还是‘持有’？说真的，我想持有只在你的范围中间的东西吗？不。”</blockquote></p><p> Collins writes, \"The system should be 'buy' or 'sell.' That's it. Black or white. Own or don't own.\"</p><p><blockquote>柯林斯写道，“系统应该是‘买入’或‘卖出’。就是这样。黑或白。拥有或不拥有。”</blockquote></p><p> Assets like GameStop and even cryptocurrency seem to be selling on nothing more than pure emotion. Investors are taking these products for a joy ride, and that tends to send prices flying up and down the ladder.</p><p><blockquote>像游戏驿站甚至加密货币这样的资产似乎只不过是纯粹的情绪在出售。投资者正在享受这些产品，这往往会导致价格飞涨。</blockquote></p><p> That’s confusing, to be sure. Just, before you go throwing your hands in the air, it’s important to remember that the stock market has always been at least a little bit arbitrary.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这很令人困惑。只是，在你举手之前，重要的是要记住股票市场总是至少有一点武断。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stocks Like GameStop and AMC Reflect Market Reality<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC等模因股票反映了市场现实</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stocks Like GameStop and AMC Reflect Market Reality<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC等模因股票反映了市场现实</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-09 22:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Gamestop&nbsp;(<b>GME</b>)&nbsp;made some investors rich… and then it broke many more. Investing in AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>)&nbsp;did the exact same thing. These two stocks represent, if not failing businesses, at least ailing ones; companies that struggled to keep up with the new economy even before the pandemic shut down large swaths of it. Yet over the past few months they have posted some of the most volatile gains and losses on the market.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站(<b>GME</b>）让一些投资者变得富有……然后又破产了更多。投资AMC院线（<b>AMC</b>）做了完全相同的事情。这两只股票即使不是失败的企业，也至少代表了陷入困境的企业；甚至在大流行之前就努力跟上新经济的公司就关闭了大部分新经济。然而，在过去的几个月里，他们公布了市场上一些最不稳定的收益和损失。</blockquote></p><p> How?</p><p><blockquote>如何？</blockquote></p><p> It’s down to what Real Money's Timothy Collins calls the market of “meme stock hyperbole.” But, he writes, is it really all that different from how trading has always worked?</p><p><blockquote>这取决于Real Money的Timothy Collins评级市场的“模因股票夸张”。但是，他写道，这真的与交易一直以来的运作方式有那么大的不同吗？</blockquote></p><p> Have you ever really thought about the phrases 'to the moon' or 'conviction buy,' and how they mess with out perception of fair value?</p><p><blockquote>您是否真正想过“登月”或“信念购买”这两个短语，以及它们如何扰乱我们对公允价值的看法？</blockquote></p><p> \"Initially, I rolled my eyes at the continued use of the phrase 'To The Moon,'\" Collins says. \"It's not like 'Strong Buy with a price target of $65', for instance. 'To the moon' is completely arbitrary and open to interpretation, but then again so are most things about valuation, when you think about it,\" Collins wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“最初，我对继续使用‘去月球’这个词翻了个白眼，”柯林斯说。“例如，这不像‘强力买入，目标价为65美元’。‘登月’完全是任意的，可以进行解释，但话又说回来，当你仔细想想时，大多数关于估值的事情也是如此，”柯林斯写道。</blockquote></p><p> \"For instance, when an analyst pounds the table on a stock, how is that different from 'to the moon?' Or when someone says, 'all in.' Are they really all in? Did they cash in all their assets, pool the liquidity, and buy every share they possibly could? Probably not. Actually, I'd say definitely not 99.9999% of the time. Of course, there's always that one person,\" Collins said.</p><p><blockquote>“例如，当分析师在一只股票上敲打桌子时，这与‘飞向月球’有什么不同？或者当有人说‘全押’时。他们真的全押了吗？他们是否兑现了所有资产，汇集了流动性，并尽可能地购买了每一股？可能不会。事实上，我会说绝对不是99.9999%的情况。当然，总有那么一个人，”柯林斯说。</blockquote></p><p> \"But the point isWall Street has been arbitraryfor years. We can't even have a standard rating system. Is it 'Neutral' or 'Hold?' And really, do I want to hold something that is only in the middle of your range? No.\"</p><p><blockquote>“但关键是，华尔街多年来一直是武断的。我们甚至不能有一个标准的评级系统。它是‘中性’还是‘持有’？说真的，我想持有只在你的范围中间的东西吗？不。”</blockquote></p><p> Collins writes, \"The system should be 'buy' or 'sell.' That's it. Black or white. Own or don't own.\"</p><p><blockquote>柯林斯写道，“系统应该是‘买入’或‘卖出’。就是这样。黑或白。拥有或不拥有。”</blockquote></p><p> Assets like GameStop and even cryptocurrency seem to be selling on nothing more than pure emotion. Investors are taking these products for a joy ride, and that tends to send prices flying up and down the ladder.</p><p><blockquote>像游戏驿站甚至加密货币这样的资产似乎只不过是纯粹的情绪在出售。投资者正在享受这些产品，这往往会导致价格飞涨。</blockquote></p><p> That’s confusing, to be sure. Just, before you go throwing your hands in the air, it’s important to remember that the stock market has always been at least a little bit arbitrary.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这很令人困惑。只是，在你举手之前，重要的是要记住股票市场总是至少有一点武断。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/meme-stocks-like-gamestop-amc-reflect-market-reality\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/meme-stocks-like-gamestop-amc-reflect-market-reality","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173374462","content_text":"Gamestop (GME) made some investors rich… and then it broke many more. Investing in AMC Entertainment (AMC) did the exact same thing. These two stocks represent, if not failing businesses, at least ailing ones; companies that struggled to keep up with the new economy even before the pandemic shut down large swaths of it. Yet over the past few months they have posted some of the most volatile gains and losses on the market.\nHow?\nIt’s down to what Real Money's Timothy Collins calls the market of “meme stock hyperbole.” But, he writes, is it really all that different from how trading has always worked?\nHave you ever really thought about the phrases 'to the moon' or 'conviction buy,' and how they mess with out perception of fair value?\n\"Initially, I rolled my eyes at the continued use of the phrase 'To The Moon,'\" Collins says. \"It's not like 'Strong Buy with a price target of $65', for instance. 'To the moon' is completely arbitrary and open to interpretation, but then again so are most things about valuation, when you think about it,\" Collins wrote.\n\"For instance, when an analyst pounds the table on a stock, how is that different from 'to the moon?' Or when someone says, 'all in.' Are they really all in? Did they cash in all their assets, pool the liquidity, and buy every share they possibly could? Probably not. Actually, I'd say definitely not 99.9999% of the time. Of course, there's always that one person,\" Collins said.\n\"But the point isWall Street has been arbitraryfor years. We can't even have a standard rating system. Is it 'Neutral' or 'Hold?' And really, do I want to hold something that is only in the middle of your range? No.\"\nCollins writes, \"The system should be 'buy' or 'sell.' That's it. Black or white. Own or don't own.\"\nAssets like GameStop and even cryptocurrency seem to be selling on nothing more than pure emotion. Investors are taking these products for a joy ride, and that tends to send prices flying up and down the ladder.\nThat’s confusing, to be sure. Just, before you go throwing your hands in the air, it’s important to remember that the stock market has always been at least a little bit arbitrary.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152148990,"gmtCreate":1625277991010,"gmtModify":1631892187950,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The Pro investor hate GME AMC.. Lol","listText":"The Pro investor hate GME AMC.. Lol","text":"The Pro investor hate GME AMC.. Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152148990","repostId":"1188153141","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188153141","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625276221,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188153141?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>Suze Orman担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188153141","media":"MoneyWise","summary":"As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for th","content":"<p>As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市继续创下纪录，新冠肺炎的影响继续给经济带来问题。</blockquote></p><p> That clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.</p><p><blockquote>这场冲突让投资专家感到担忧，其中包括苏茜·欧曼(Suze Orman)，她甚至表示，她现在正在为不可避免的市场崩盘做准备。</blockquote></p><p> And a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广的一项著名指标——巴菲特指标——表明奥曼可能有所发现。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.</p><p><blockquote>以下解释了这种担忧的来源，以及即使市场下跌，您也可以使用一些技巧来保持投资组合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Suze Orman think?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苏西·奥曼是怎么想的？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8dc3ad363faad96bc575a22235562d\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Mediapunch/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>Mediapunch/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Suze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.</p><p><blockquote>几十年来，Suze Orman一直热切关注市场。她知道起起落落是意料之中的，但她所看到的像游戏驿站这样的投资时尚所发生的事情让她感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”</p><p><blockquote>“我不喜欢现在市场上发生的事情，”奥曼在CNBC的视频中表示。“经济一直很糟糕，但股市一直在上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> While investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然现在投资就像使用智能手机应用程序一样容易，但奥曼担心我们能从这些历史高点走向何方。</blockquote></p><p> And even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.</p><p><blockquote>即使刺激支票仍在发放，房地产市场去年也打破了自己的记录，奥曼仍担心冠状病毒会带来什么——特别是在新变种不断出现的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，她觉得距离上次崩盘已经太久了，不能再保持这么高的高度了。</blockquote></p><p> “This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.</p><p><blockquote>“这让我又想起了2000年，”奥曼说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buffett Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特指标</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ada32ecadcc4581fed208f4f4e4d53\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Larry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>拉里·W·史密斯/EPA/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> One metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特经常用来评估市场的一项指标，以他的名字命名，已经亮起红灯足够长的时间，以至于市场观察人士开始怀疑这是否是一个过时的工具。</blockquote></p><p> But the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.</p><p><blockquote>但衡量股市总价值与美国经济产出比率的巴菲特指标继续攀升至前所未有的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士想知道这是否是我们即将看到严重下跌的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> How to prepare for a crash<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ad912a6b4611d9e39b46d2851c78c9e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Freedomz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>如何为崩溃做好准备Freedomz/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Orman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.</p><p><blockquote>Orman提出了三个建立简单投资策略的建议，以帮助您成功应对市场的任何急转弯。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Buy low</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.低吸</b></blockquote></p><p> Part of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼对游戏驿站等模因股票的狂热感到如此不安的部分原因是，它完全违背了普通投资者的利益。</blockquote></p><p> “All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”</p><p><blockquote>“你们所有人的头都被拧到了后面，”她说。“你想要的只是这些市场不断上涨。这对你有什么好处？”</blockquote></p><p> She points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，大多数人唯一的额外资金用于投资401(k)或IRA计划的退休生活。</blockquote></p><p> Because you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>因为你可能几十年内都不打算碰这笔钱，所以最好的长期策略是低吸。这样，你的美元现在将走得更远，为未来20年、30年或40年留下足够的增长空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Invest on a schedule</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.按计划投资</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4102f8a6d5002090743b1cbded32ef9\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">katjen / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>卡珍/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> While she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然她更喜欢低价买入，但奥曼不建议你在市场上涨时完全停止投资。</blockquote></p><p> She wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.</p><p><blockquote>她希望普通投资者不要陷入市场每天的涨跌之中。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，现在为经济低迷欢呼可能是您获得更大份额利润丰厚的投资的最佳选择——就像一些幸运的投资者在2007年和2008年所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p> “When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”</p><p><blockquote>“当市场下跌、下跌、下跌时，你可以免费购买东西，”奥曼说。“现在看看15年后的它们。”</blockquote></p><p> She suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>她建议你建立一个平均成本策略，这意味着无论市场波动如何，你都要定期等量投资。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法很容易用目前可供DIY投资者使用的许多投资应用程序中的任何一个来实施。</blockquote></p><p> There are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.</p><p><blockquote>甚至有些应用程序会通过将您的借记卡和信用卡购买的金额四舍五入到最接近的美元来自动投资您的零钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Diversify with fractional shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.通过零碎股份实现多元化</b></blockquote></p><p> To help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助应对市场特定角落的下跌，奥曼建议您分散投资——通过投资多种不同类型的资产和经济部门来平衡您的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Orman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼特别推荐零股投资。这种方法允许你购买一家知名公司的一部分股份，否则你将买不起。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在流行的股票交易工具的帮助下，任何预算的人都可以负担得起碎股策略。</blockquote></p><p> “The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”</p><p><blockquote>“你越早开始，你拥有的钱就越多，”奥曼说。“只是不要停下来，当这些市场下跌时，你应该很高兴，因为你的美元找到了更多的份额。”</blockquote></p><p> “And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”</p><p><blockquote>“你拥有的股票越多，20年、40年、50年后你拥有的钱就越多。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else you can do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你还能做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e79c6fd1f8fa6e3a7c3a6c94f1e14b5\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">goodluz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>古德卢兹/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼在CNBC视频中表示，无论大崩盘是否即将来临，距离退休还有几十年的投资者都可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> First, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.</p><p><blockquote>第一，做最坏的打算，抱最好的希望。自从疫情爆发以来，奥曼现在建议每个人都有一个应急基金，可以支付他们一整年的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.</p><p><blockquote>然后，为了让自己过上舒适的退休生活，她建议您选择Roth账户，无论是401(k)还是IRA。</blockquote></p><p> That will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.</p><p><blockquote>这将帮助您在从退休账户中提取资金时避免纳税，因为您对罗斯账户的供款是税后进行的。另一方面，传统IRA在您缴款时无需纳税，因此您最终会稍后付款。</blockquote></p><p> If you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果您发现需要更多指导，与专业财务顾问合作可以帮助您指出正确的方向，以便您可以自信地度过任何市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> While everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.</p><p><blockquote>当其他人都在偏离路线或矫枉过正时，你将牢牢地坐在驾驶座上，计划好你的晚年。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1621813427262","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>Suze Orman担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>Suze Orman担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MoneyWise</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市继续创下纪录，新冠肺炎的影响继续给经济带来问题。</blockquote></p><p> That clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.</p><p><blockquote>这场冲突让投资专家感到担忧，其中包括苏茜·欧曼(Suze Orman)，她甚至表示，她现在正在为不可避免的市场崩盘做准备。</blockquote></p><p> And a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广的一项著名指标——巴菲特指标——表明奥曼可能有所发现。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.</p><p><blockquote>以下解释了这种担忧的来源，以及即使市场下跌，您也可以使用一些技巧来保持投资组合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Suze Orman think?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苏西·奥曼是怎么想的？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8dc3ad363faad96bc575a22235562d\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Mediapunch/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>Mediapunch/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Suze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.</p><p><blockquote>几十年来，Suze Orman一直热切关注市场。她知道起起落落是意料之中的，但她所看到的像游戏驿站这样的投资时尚所发生的事情让她感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”</p><p><blockquote>“我不喜欢现在市场上发生的事情，”奥曼在CNBC的视频中表示。“经济一直很糟糕，但股市一直在上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> While investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然现在投资就像使用智能手机应用程序一样容易，但奥曼担心我们能从这些历史高点走向何方。</blockquote></p><p> And even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.</p><p><blockquote>即使刺激支票仍在发放，房地产市场去年也打破了自己的记录，奥曼仍担心冠状病毒会带来什么——特别是在新变种不断出现的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，她觉得距离上次崩盘已经太久了，不能再保持这么高的高度了。</blockquote></p><p> “This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.</p><p><blockquote>“这让我又想起了2000年，”奥曼说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buffett Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特指标</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ada32ecadcc4581fed208f4f4e4d53\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Larry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>拉里·W·史密斯/EPA/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> One metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特经常用来评估市场的一项指标，以他的名字命名，已经亮起红灯足够长的时间，以至于市场观察人士开始怀疑这是否是一个过时的工具。</blockquote></p><p> But the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.</p><p><blockquote>但衡量股市总价值与美国经济产出比率的巴菲特指标继续攀升至前所未有的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士想知道这是否是我们即将看到严重下跌的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> How to prepare for a crash<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ad912a6b4611d9e39b46d2851c78c9e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Freedomz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>如何为崩溃做好准备Freedomz/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Orman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.</p><p><blockquote>Orman提出了三个建立简单投资策略的建议，以帮助您成功应对市场的任何急转弯。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Buy low</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.低吸</b></blockquote></p><p> Part of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼对游戏驿站等模因股票的狂热感到如此不安的部分原因是，它完全违背了普通投资者的利益。</blockquote></p><p> “All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”</p><p><blockquote>“你们所有人的头都被拧到了后面，”她说。“你想要的只是这些市场不断上涨。这对你有什么好处？”</blockquote></p><p> She points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，大多数人唯一的额外资金用于投资401(k)或IRA计划的退休生活。</blockquote></p><p> Because you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>因为你可能几十年内都不打算碰这笔钱，所以最好的长期策略是低吸。这样，你的美元现在将走得更远，为未来20年、30年或40年留下足够的增长空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Invest on a schedule</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.按计划投资</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4102f8a6d5002090743b1cbded32ef9\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">katjen / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>卡珍/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> While she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然她更喜欢低价买入，但奥曼不建议你在市场上涨时完全停止投资。</blockquote></p><p> She wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.</p><p><blockquote>她希望普通投资者不要陷入市场每天的涨跌之中。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，现在为经济低迷欢呼可能是您获得更大份额利润丰厚的投资的最佳选择——就像一些幸运的投资者在2007年和2008年所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p> “When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”</p><p><blockquote>“当市场下跌、下跌、下跌时，你可以免费购买东西，”奥曼说。“现在看看15年后的它们。”</blockquote></p><p> She suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>她建议你建立一个平均成本策略，这意味着无论市场波动如何，你都要定期等量投资。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法很容易用目前可供DIY投资者使用的许多投资应用程序中的任何一个来实施。</blockquote></p><p> There are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.</p><p><blockquote>甚至有些应用程序会通过将您的借记卡和信用卡购买的金额四舍五入到最接近的美元来自动投资您的零钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Diversify with fractional shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.通过零碎股份实现多元化</b></blockquote></p><p> To help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助应对市场特定角落的下跌，奥曼建议您分散投资——通过投资多种不同类型的资产和经济部门来平衡您的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Orman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼特别推荐零股投资。这种方法允许你购买一家知名公司的一部分股份，否则你将买不起。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在流行的股票交易工具的帮助下，任何预算的人都可以负担得起碎股策略。</blockquote></p><p> “The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”</p><p><blockquote>“你越早开始，你拥有的钱就越多，”奥曼说。“只是不要停下来，当这些市场下跌时，你应该很高兴，因为你的美元找到了更多的份额。”</blockquote></p><p> “And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”</p><p><blockquote>“你拥有的股票越多，20年、40年、50年后你拥有的钱就越多。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else you can do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你还能做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e79c6fd1f8fa6e3a7c3a6c94f1e14b5\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">goodluz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>古德卢兹/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼在CNBC视频中表示，无论大崩盘是否即将来临，距离退休还有几十年的投资者都可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> First, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.</p><p><blockquote>第一，做最坏的打算，抱最好的希望。自从疫情爆发以来，奥曼现在建议每个人都有一个应急基金，可以支付他们一整年的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.</p><p><blockquote>然后，为了让自己过上舒适的退休生活，她建议您选择Roth账户，无论是401(k)还是IRA。</blockquote></p><p> That will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.</p><p><blockquote>这将帮助您在从退休账户中提取资金时避免纳税，因为您对罗斯账户的供款是税后进行的。另一方面，传统IRA在您缴款时无需纳税，因此您最终会稍后付款。</blockquote></p><p> If you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果您发现需要更多指导，与专业财务顾问合作可以帮助您指出正确的方向，以便您可以自信地度过任何市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> While everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.</p><p><blockquote>当其他人都在偏离路线或矫枉过正时，你将牢牢地坐在驾驶座上，计划好你的晚年。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suze-orman-worries-market-crash-220000108.html\">MoneyWise</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suze-orman-worries-market-crash-220000108.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188153141","content_text":"As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.\nThat clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.\nAnd a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.\nHere’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.\nWhat does Suze Orman think?\nMediapunch/Shutterstock\nSuze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.\n“I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”\nWhile investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.\nAnd even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.\nWhat's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.\n“This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.\nThe Buffett Indicator\nLarry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock\nOne metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.\nBut the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.\nAnd those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.\nHow to prepare for a crashFreedomz / Shutterstock\nOrman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.\n1. Buy low\nPart of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.\n“All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”\nShe points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.\nBecause you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.\n2. Invest on a schedule\nkatjen / Shutterstock\nWhile she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.\nShe wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.\nIn fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.\n“When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”\nShe suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.\nThis kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.\nThere are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.\n3. Diversify with fractional shares\nTo help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.\nOrman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.\nWith the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.\n“The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”\n“And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”\nWhat else you can do\ngoodluz / Shutterstock\nWhether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.\nFirst, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.\nThen, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.\nThat will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.\nIf you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.\nWhile everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152985232,"gmtCreate":1625262043126,"gmtModify":1631892187963,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crazy fellow we like the stock heee buy and hold... Heee who care about ur view lol&nbsp;","listText":"Crazy fellow we like the stock heee buy and hold... Heee who care about ur view lol&nbsp;","text":"Crazy fellow we like the stock heee buy and hold... Heee who care about ur view lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152985232","repostId":"1121860286","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1121860286","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625212613,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121860286?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: 'Record' Weekend Is Terrible News For The Stock<blockquote>AMC：“创纪录”的周末对该股来说是个坏消息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121860286","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAttendance of 2 million is terrible for AMC.\nThe company needs to more than double attendan","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Attendance of 2 million is terrible for AMC.</li>  <li>The company needs to more&nbsp;than double attendance to return to 2019 - when it still lost money.</li>  <li>Someday shares will fall 90% from this point.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798af80ddf8412e6beabc5bf60891141\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>RichLegg/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>200万的上座率对于AMC来说是可怕的。</li><li>该公司需要将出勤率增加一倍以上才能回到2019年——当时它仍然亏损。</li><li>总有一天，股价将从这一点下跌90%。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RichLegg/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I'm pretty bad at predicting what makes AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)go up or down in the short term. After all, I said to short it at $26/share (Short Squeeze Presents Many Ways to Make Money) and then explained why there was no fundamental news behind the run up at $58/share (Recent Events are Just Re-Runs). But I'm pretty good at reading press releases, news articles and financial statements, and it's clear from recent news just how big a hole AMC has to climb out of on an operating basis.</p><p><blockquote>我不太擅长预测AMC院线（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）短期内上涨或下跌的原因。毕竟，我说在26美元/股做空（轧空提供了许多赚钱的方法），然后解释了为什么在58美元/股的上涨背后没有基本面消息（最近的事件只是重新运行）。但我很擅长阅读新闻稿、新闻文章和财务报表，从最近的新闻中可以清楚地看出，AMC在运营基础上必须爬出多大的漏洞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Attendance at theaters is terrible and AMC will continue to lose money</b></p><p><blockquote><b>影院上座率惨淡AMC将继续亏损</b></blockquote></p><p> On Monday, AMC put out a&nbsp;press release&nbsp;touting its \"post-reopening record\" of 2 million attendees and highlighting the biggest box office draw \"Fast and the Furious 9\" which grossed $70 million:</p><p><blockquote>周一，AMC发布了一份新闻稿，宣传其200万观众的“重新开放后记录”，并强调了票房最高的《速度与激情9》，票房收入为7000万美元：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c54d7e40d29666bf8b78f554f233e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"83\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b9f8c597b1ba417c6b478358caa9cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"62\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Businesswire</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Businesswire</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For reasons that should be clear to all,these numbers are terrible. As you can see from the company's earnings release showing results for 2018 and 2019:</p><p><blockquote>出于所有人都应该清楚的原因，这些数字是可怕的。从该公司2018年和2019年业绩的财报中可以看出：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b604e216de76939782f86a868e40889d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"412\"><span>Source: AMC Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMC院线</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pace for attendance in 2019 was 250 million in the US, or 4.8 million customers per week and in 2018 it was 4.9 million customers. So it's very nice to learn that 2 million customers is the largest number of people to see a movie at AMC since COVID-19 led to lockdowns, but the real numbers mean show attendance is down almost 60% from 2018 and 2019.</p><p><blockquote>2019年美国的出席率为2.5亿，即每周480万客户，2018年为490万客户。因此，很高兴得知200万顾客是自新冠肺炎导致封锁以来在AMC看电影的人数最多的一次，但实际数字意味着放映上座率比2018年和2019年下降了近60%。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see above, 2018 and 2019 were not great years for the company, either. AMC lost $149 million in the second of two years and made $110 million in the first one. At the end of 2019, the stock price of a money-losing AMC was just over $7/share. Bullish shareholders (\"Apes\" as they style themselves) are excited about the move of more than 700% to this week's price of over $55/share:</p><p><blockquote>正如您在上面看到的，2018年和2019年对该公司来说也不是很好的年份。AMC在两年的第二年亏损1.49亿美元，第一年盈利1.1亿美元。2019年底，一家亏损的AMC股价刚刚超过7美元/股。看涨的股东（他们自称为“猿”）对本周超过55美元/股的价格上涨超过700%感到兴奋：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce4607284db107f9758f4735a99ccd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Koyfin</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But what many of them don't seem to be paying attention to is the market capitalization. As you can see in the chart above, increasing the share count from 100 million to almost 480 million shares outstanding in the last year has pushed the market cap far higher leading to an increase of almost 3,900%.</p><p><blockquote>但他们中的许多人似乎没有注意到的是市值。如上图所示，去年流通股数量从1亿股增加到近4.8亿股，推动市值大幅上涨，涨幅近3,900%。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of securities analysis is not \"optional\" and shareholders are now paying almost 40 times as much to own this company as they did at the end of the last full year before COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>这种证券分析不是“可选的”，股东现在为拥有这家公司支付的费用几乎是COVID-19之前最后一个全年年底的40倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Not all MemeStocks are created Equal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有模因股票都是平等的</b></blockquote></p><p> The first \"memestock\" to capture everyone's attention this year was GameStop (GME). After a number of years of declining sales, a new class of investors such as&nbsp;Chewy founder Ryan&nbsp;took interest in the company and eventually took over the board of directors. At the same time this change in leadership was underway, a number of hedge funds who had been short the stock&nbsp;began losing money&nbsp;at an alarming clip.</p><p><blockquote>今年第一个引起大家注意的“模因股”是游戏驿站（GME）。经过多年的销售额下降后，Chewy创始人Ryan等新一代投资者对该公司产生了兴趣，并最终接管了董事会。在领导层变动的同时，一些做空该股的对冲基金开始以惊人的速度亏损。</blockquote></p><p> In the popular imagination, the rise in GameStop shares was a&nbsp;win for retail investors&nbsp;sharing information on Reddit such as the now-famous \"Roaring Kitty,\" but the evidence is the biggest winners were in fact other hedge funds (see \"This Hedge Fund Made $700 million on GameStop\"). Since Cohen took over the company, he is shifting its business model to online sales and hiring executives from leading companies such as&nbsp;Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN).</p><p><blockquote>在大众的想象中，游戏驿站股价的上涨是在Reddit上分享信息的散户投资者的胜利，例如现在著名的“咆哮的小猫”，但证据是最大的赢家实际上是其他对冲基金（见“这家对冲基金在游戏驿站赚了7亿美元”）。自从科恩接管该公司以来，他正在将其商业模式转向在线销售，并从亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）等领先公司聘请高管。</blockquote></p><p> None of the kinds of positive things that are happening at GameStop are even close to being talked about at AMC. AMC has had thesame CEO since 2015. There is no change in business model, and now that he has cash from equity sales, thebest ideahe's come up with is just buying more movie theaters! Meanwhile, many of the most successful companies on the planet such as Disney(NYSE:DIS), Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and Amazon are all developing streaming services to entertain customers at home - which keeps them from going to the movies.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站发生的任何积极的事情都没有在AMC上被谈论过。自2015年以来，AMC一直担任同一位首席执行官。商业模式没有改变，现在他从股权出售中获得了现金，他想出的最好的主意就是购买更多的电影院！与此同时，地球上许多最成功的公司，例如Disney（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）、Netflix（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）和Amazon都在开发流媒体服务来娱乐在家的客户，这使得他们无法去看电影。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Likewise, the entire growth of the online gaming industry with services such as Twitch from Amazon and Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)with Xbox is another substantial competitor getting in the way of customers going to the movies. All this is to say that the future is not getting brighter for AMC.</p><p><blockquote>同样，在线游戏行业的整体增长（例如Amazon的Twitch和微软（纳斯达克：MSFT）的Xbox）是另一个阻碍客户看电影的重要竞争对手。这一切都表明，AMC的未来并没有变得更加光明。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Maybe AMC's share price will double next week. Maybe it will get cut in half. I don't know and neither does anyone else. But one month, one quarter or one year from now, shareholders will own a money-losing company in a fading industry at an extremely high valuation.</p><p><blockquote>也许下周AMC的股价会翻倍。也许它会被切成两半。我不知道，其他人也不知道。但从现在起一个月、一个季度或一年后，股东们将以极高的估值拥有一家处于衰落行业的亏损公司。</blockquote></p><p> I'm short shares in this stock because one day in the not-too-distant future, those shareholders will start selling, and then once the stock goes down regularly I expect them to start selling shares rapidly. Ultimately, I expect the shares to go back to the level they were at the end of 2019 - only when that happens, they won't be $7/share anymore. They'll be closer to $2.00.</p><p><blockquote>我做空这只股票，因为在不久的将来有一天，这些股东将开始出售，然后一旦股票定期下跌，我预计他们将开始迅速出售股票。最终，我预计股价将回到2019年底的水平——只是当这种情况发生时，股价将不再是7美元/股。它们将接近2美元。</blockquote></p><p> Good luck to all!</p><p><blockquote>祝大家好运！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: 'Record' Weekend Is Terrible News For The Stock<blockquote>AMC：“创纪录”的周末对该股来说是个坏消息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: 'Record' Weekend Is Terrible News For The Stock<blockquote>AMC：“创纪录”的周末对该股来说是个坏消息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Attendance of 2 million is terrible for AMC.</li>  <li>The company needs to more&nbsp;than double attendance to return to 2019 - when it still lost money.</li>  <li>Someday shares will fall 90% from this point.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798af80ddf8412e6beabc5bf60891141\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>RichLegg/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>200万的上座率对于AMC来说是可怕的。</li><li>该公司需要将出勤率增加一倍以上才能回到2019年——当时它仍然亏损。</li><li>总有一天，股价将从这一点下跌90%。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RichLegg/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I'm pretty bad at predicting what makes AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)go up or down in the short term. After all, I said to short it at $26/share (Short Squeeze Presents Many Ways to Make Money) and then explained why there was no fundamental news behind the run up at $58/share (Recent Events are Just Re-Runs). But I'm pretty good at reading press releases, news articles and financial statements, and it's clear from recent news just how big a hole AMC has to climb out of on an operating basis.</p><p><blockquote>我不太擅长预测AMC院线（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）短期内上涨或下跌的原因。毕竟，我说在26美元/股做空（轧空提供了许多赚钱的方法），然后解释了为什么在58美元/股的上涨背后没有基本面消息（最近的事件只是重新运行）。但我很擅长阅读新闻稿、新闻文章和财务报表，从最近的新闻中可以清楚地看出，AMC在运营基础上必须爬出多大的漏洞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Attendance at theaters is terrible and AMC will continue to lose money</b></p><p><blockquote><b>影院上座率惨淡AMC将继续亏损</b></blockquote></p><p> On Monday, AMC put out a&nbsp;press release&nbsp;touting its \"post-reopening record\" of 2 million attendees and highlighting the biggest box office draw \"Fast and the Furious 9\" which grossed $70 million:</p><p><blockquote>周一，AMC发布了一份新闻稿，宣传其200万观众的“重新开放后记录”，并强调了票房最高的《速度与激情9》，票房收入为7000万美元：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c54d7e40d29666bf8b78f554f233e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"83\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b9f8c597b1ba417c6b478358caa9cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"62\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Businesswire</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Businesswire</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For reasons that should be clear to all,these numbers are terrible. As you can see from the company's earnings release showing results for 2018 and 2019:</p><p><blockquote>出于所有人都应该清楚的原因，这些数字是可怕的。从该公司2018年和2019年业绩的财报中可以看出：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b604e216de76939782f86a868e40889d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"412\"><span>Source: AMC Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMC院线</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pace for attendance in 2019 was 250 million in the US, or 4.8 million customers per week and in 2018 it was 4.9 million customers. So it's very nice to learn that 2 million customers is the largest number of people to see a movie at AMC since COVID-19 led to lockdowns, but the real numbers mean show attendance is down almost 60% from 2018 and 2019.</p><p><blockquote>2019年美国的出席率为2.5亿，即每周480万客户，2018年为490万客户。因此，很高兴得知200万顾客是自新冠肺炎导致封锁以来在AMC看电影的人数最多的一次，但实际数字意味着放映上座率比2018年和2019年下降了近60%。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see above, 2018 and 2019 were not great years for the company, either. AMC lost $149 million in the second of two years and made $110 million in the first one. At the end of 2019, the stock price of a money-losing AMC was just over $7/share. Bullish shareholders (\"Apes\" as they style themselves) are excited about the move of more than 700% to this week's price of over $55/share:</p><p><blockquote>正如您在上面看到的，2018年和2019年对该公司来说也不是很好的年份。AMC在两年的第二年亏损1.49亿美元，第一年盈利1.1亿美元。2019年底，一家亏损的AMC股价刚刚超过7美元/股。看涨的股东（他们自称为“猿”）对本周超过55美元/股的价格上涨超过700%感到兴奋：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce4607284db107f9758f4735a99ccd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Koyfin</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But what many of them don't seem to be paying attention to is the market capitalization. As you can see in the chart above, increasing the share count from 100 million to almost 480 million shares outstanding in the last year has pushed the market cap far higher leading to an increase of almost 3,900%.</p><p><blockquote>但他们中的许多人似乎没有注意到的是市值。如上图所示，去年流通股数量从1亿股增加到近4.8亿股，推动市值大幅上涨，涨幅近3,900%。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of securities analysis is not \"optional\" and shareholders are now paying almost 40 times as much to own this company as they did at the end of the last full year before COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>这种证券分析不是“可选的”，股东现在为拥有这家公司支付的费用几乎是COVID-19之前最后一个全年年底的40倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Not all MemeStocks are created Equal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有模因股票都是平等的</b></blockquote></p><p> The first \"memestock\" to capture everyone's attention this year was GameStop (GME). After a number of years of declining sales, a new class of investors such as&nbsp;Chewy founder Ryan&nbsp;took interest in the company and eventually took over the board of directors. At the same time this change in leadership was underway, a number of hedge funds who had been short the stock&nbsp;began losing money&nbsp;at an alarming clip.</p><p><blockquote>今年第一个引起大家注意的“模因股”是游戏驿站（GME）。经过多年的销售额下降后，Chewy创始人Ryan等新一代投资者对该公司产生了兴趣，并最终接管了董事会。在领导层变动的同时，一些做空该股的对冲基金开始以惊人的速度亏损。</blockquote></p><p> In the popular imagination, the rise in GameStop shares was a&nbsp;win for retail investors&nbsp;sharing information on Reddit such as the now-famous \"Roaring Kitty,\" but the evidence is the biggest winners were in fact other hedge funds (see \"This Hedge Fund Made $700 million on GameStop\"). Since Cohen took over the company, he is shifting its business model to online sales and hiring executives from leading companies such as&nbsp;Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN).</p><p><blockquote>在大众的想象中，游戏驿站股价的上涨是在Reddit上分享信息的散户投资者的胜利，例如现在著名的“咆哮的小猫”，但证据是最大的赢家实际上是其他对冲基金（见“这家对冲基金在游戏驿站赚了7亿美元”）。自从科恩接管该公司以来，他正在将其商业模式转向在线销售，并从亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）等领先公司聘请高管。</blockquote></p><p> None of the kinds of positive things that are happening at GameStop are even close to being talked about at AMC. AMC has had thesame CEO since 2015. There is no change in business model, and now that he has cash from equity sales, thebest ideahe's come up with is just buying more movie theaters! Meanwhile, many of the most successful companies on the planet such as Disney(NYSE:DIS), Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and Amazon are all developing streaming services to entertain customers at home - which keeps them from going to the movies.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站发生的任何积极的事情都没有在AMC上被谈论过。自2015年以来，AMC一直担任同一位首席执行官。商业模式没有改变，现在他从股权出售中获得了现金，他想出的最好的主意就是购买更多的电影院！与此同时，地球上许多最成功的公司，例如Disney（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）、Netflix（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）和Amazon都在开发流媒体服务来娱乐在家的客户，这使得他们无法去看电影。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Likewise, the entire growth of the online gaming industry with services such as Twitch from Amazon and Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)with Xbox is another substantial competitor getting in the way of customers going to the movies. All this is to say that the future is not getting brighter for AMC.</p><p><blockquote>同样，在线游戏行业的整体增长（例如Amazon的Twitch和微软（纳斯达克：MSFT）的Xbox）是另一个阻碍客户看电影的重要竞争对手。这一切都表明，AMC的未来并没有变得更加光明。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Maybe AMC's share price will double next week. Maybe it will get cut in half. I don't know and neither does anyone else. But one month, one quarter or one year from now, shareholders will own a money-losing company in a fading industry at an extremely high valuation.</p><p><blockquote>也许下周AMC的股价会翻倍。也许它会被切成两半。我不知道，其他人也不知道。但从现在起一个月、一个季度或一年后，股东们将以极高的估值拥有一家处于衰落行业的亏损公司。</blockquote></p><p> I'm short shares in this stock because one day in the not-too-distant future, those shareholders will start selling, and then once the stock goes down regularly I expect them to start selling shares rapidly. Ultimately, I expect the shares to go back to the level they were at the end of 2019 - only when that happens, they won't be $7/share anymore. They'll be closer to $2.00.</p><p><blockquote>我做空这只股票，因为在不久的将来有一天，这些股东将开始出售，然后一旦股票定期下跌，我预计他们将开始迅速出售股票。最终，我预计股价将回到2019年底的水平——只是当这种情况发生时，股价将不再是7美元/股。它们将接近2美元。</blockquote></p><p> Good luck to all!</p><p><blockquote>祝大家好运！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437461-amc-record-weekend-is-terrible-news-for-the-stock\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437461-amc-record-weekend-is-terrible-news-for-the-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121860286","content_text":"Summary\n\nAttendance of 2 million is terrible for AMC.\nThe company needs to more than double attendance to return to 2019 - when it still lost money.\nSomeday shares will fall 90% from this point.\n\nRichLegg/E+ via Getty Images\nI'm pretty bad at predicting what makes AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)go up or down in the short term. After all, I said to short it at $26/share (Short Squeeze Presents Many Ways to Make Money) and then explained why there was no fundamental news behind the run up at $58/share (Recent Events are Just Re-Runs). But I'm pretty good at reading press releases, news articles and financial statements, and it's clear from recent news just how big a hole AMC has to climb out of on an operating basis.\nAttendance at theaters is terrible and AMC will continue to lose money\nOn Monday, AMC put out a press release touting its \"post-reopening record\" of 2 million attendees and highlighting the biggest box office draw \"Fast and the Furious 9\" which grossed $70 million:\n\nSource: Businesswire\nFor reasons that should be clear to all,these numbers are terrible. As you can see from the company's earnings release showing results for 2018 and 2019:\nSource: AMC Entertainment\nThe pace for attendance in 2019 was 250 million in the US, or 4.8 million customers per week and in 2018 it was 4.9 million customers. So it's very nice to learn that 2 million customers is the largest number of people to see a movie at AMC since COVID-19 led to lockdowns, but the real numbers mean show attendance is down almost 60% from 2018 and 2019.\nAs you can see above, 2018 and 2019 were not great years for the company, either. AMC lost $149 million in the second of two years and made $110 million in the first one. At the end of 2019, the stock price of a money-losing AMC was just over $7/share. Bullish shareholders (\"Apes\" as they style themselves) are excited about the move of more than 700% to this week's price of over $55/share:\nSource: Koyfin\nBut what many of them don't seem to be paying attention to is the market capitalization. As you can see in the chart above, increasing the share count from 100 million to almost 480 million shares outstanding in the last year has pushed the market cap far higher leading to an increase of almost 3,900%.\nThis kind of securities analysis is not \"optional\" and shareholders are now paying almost 40 times as much to own this company as they did at the end of the last full year before COVID-19.\nNot all MemeStocks are created Equal\nThe first \"memestock\" to capture everyone's attention this year was GameStop (GME). After a number of years of declining sales, a new class of investors such as Chewy founder Ryan took interest in the company and eventually took over the board of directors. At the same time this change in leadership was underway, a number of hedge funds who had been short the stock began losing money at an alarming clip.\nIn the popular imagination, the rise in GameStop shares was a win for retail investors sharing information on Reddit such as the now-famous \"Roaring Kitty,\" but the evidence is the biggest winners were in fact other hedge funds (see \"This Hedge Fund Made $700 million on GameStop\"). Since Cohen took over the company, he is shifting its business model to online sales and hiring executives from leading companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN).\nNone of the kinds of positive things that are happening at GameStop are even close to being talked about at AMC. AMC has had thesame CEO since 2015. There is no change in business model, and now that he has cash from equity sales, thebest ideahe's come up with is just buying more movie theaters! Meanwhile, many of the most successful companies on the planet such as Disney(NYSE:DIS), Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and Amazon are all developing streaming services to entertain customers at home - which keeps them from going to the movies.\nLikewise, the entire growth of the online gaming industry with services such as Twitch from Amazon and Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)with Xbox is another substantial competitor getting in the way of customers going to the movies. All this is to say that the future is not getting brighter for AMC.\nConclusion\nMaybe AMC's share price will double next week. Maybe it will get cut in half. I don't know and neither does anyone else. But one month, one quarter or one year from now, shareholders will own a money-losing company in a fading industry at an extremely high valuation.\nI'm short shares in this stock because one day in the not-too-distant future, those shareholders will start selling, and then once the stock goes down regularly I expect them to start selling shares rapidly. Ultimately, I expect the shares to go back to the level they were at the end of 2019 - only when that happens, they won't be $7/share anymore. They'll be closer to $2.00.\nGood luck to all!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151877869,"gmtCreate":1625075481551,"gmtModify":1631892187975,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151877869","repostId":"2147815211","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":709,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120024242,"gmtCreate":1624289233386,"gmtModify":1631892187987,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hold everyone... It haven't reach the peak yet.. All the cramer fake news trying stir ppl feeling.... As usual fake news might as well say close down amc. Damn cramer.. Fake news generator zzzz","listText":"Hold everyone... It haven't reach the peak yet.. All the cramer fake news trying stir ppl feeling.... As usual fake news might as well say close down amc. Damn cramer.. Fake news generator zzzz","text":"Hold everyone... It haven't reach the peak yet.. All the cramer fake news trying stir ppl feeling.... As usual fake news might as well say close down amc. Damn cramer.. Fake news generator zzzz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120024242","repostId":"1147633739","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1147633739","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624279125,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147633739?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 20:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Higher as Meme Stocks Hold Gains; Jim Cramer Warns 'The Iceman Cometh'<blockquote>随着模因股票上涨，AMC走高；吉姆·克莱默警告“冰人来了”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147633739","media":"The Street","summary":"AMC extends gains Monday, but TheStreet's founder, Jim Cramer, warns that meme-stocks influence has ","content":"<p>  AMC extends gains Monday, but TheStreet's founder, Jim Cramer, warns that meme-stocks influence has been whittled down to just two significant names.  AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;shares moved higher Monday, following a 20% gain last week that lifted the cinema chain's value close to $30 billion, as the two most active meme stock names continue to add value to retail investor portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>AMC周一延续涨势，但TheStreet创始人吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)警告称，模因股票的影响力已被削弱至只有两个重要名称。AMC院线(<b>AMC</b>)-Get Report股价周一走高，上周上涨20%，使这家连锁影院的价值接近300亿美元，因为两个最活跃的meme股票继续为散户投资者的投资组合增加价值。</blockquote></p><p> <i>TheStreet's</i>founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned Monday that the ability of meme-powered investors to boost stock prices could fade in the coming weeks, citing a series of failed recommendations from discussions on the r/wallstreetbets chatroom in Reddit.</p><p><blockquote><i>街道的</i>然而，创始人吉姆·克莱默（Jim Cramer）周一警告称，迷因驱动的投资者提振股价的能力可能会在未来几周内减弱，他引用了Reddit上r/wallstreetbets聊天室讨论中一系列失败的建议。</blockquote></p><p> Cramer noted that recent pullbacks in Wendy's&nbsp;(<b>WEN</b>) -Get Report, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond&nbsp;(<b>BBBY</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and Cleveland Cliffs&nbsp;(<b>CLF</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;-- all of which have benefited from either a meme-drive retail surge or an attempt to squeeze investors betting against the stock -- suggest a retrenchment of influence back to the two stocks that started this year's phenomena: AMC and GameStop&nbsp;(<b>GME</b>) -Get Report.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默指出，温迪快餐店最近的回调（<b>温</b>)-获取报告，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(<b>BBBY</b>)-获取报告和克利夫兰悬崖(<b>CLF</b>）-Get报告——所有这些都受益于模因驱动的散户激增或挤压做空该股的投资者的尝试——表明引发今年现象的两只股票的影响力正在缩小：AMC和游戏驿站（<b>GME</b>)-获取报告。</blockquote></p><p> With both stocks, however, Cramer says the only real bet is that CEO Adam Aron of AMC and Chairman Ryan Cohen of GameStop can raise enough money from the sale of shares to buy a sector rival and revive their failing businesses.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cramer表示，对于这两只股票，唯一真正的赌注是AMC首席执行官Adam Aron和游戏驿站董事长Ryan Cohen能够通过出售股票筹集足够的资金来收购行业竞争对手并重振他们失败的业务。</blockquote></p><p> AMC, which unveiled plans to sell 12 million new shares earlier this month after placing a further 8.5 million shares with hedge fund Mudrick Capital is looking for approval to sell 25 million shares at some point next year in order to fund potential 'value creating' investment opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>AMC在向对冲基金Mudrick Capital再配售850万股股票后，于本月早些时候公布了出售1200万股新股的计划，目前正在寻求批准在明年某个时候出售2500万股股票，以便为潜在的“价值创造”投资机会提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop, meanwhile, said it plans to sell up to 5 million shares in an \"at-the-market\" offering, noting it will use the capital for \"general corporate purposes\" and investing in \"growth initiatives\" following a first quarter loss.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，游戏驿站表示，计划在“市场”发行中出售最多500万股股票，并指出将把这笔资金用于“一般企业用途”，并在第一季度亏损后投资于“增长计划”。</blockquote></p><p> \"Right now AMC is a $30 billion company with very little hope that it can survive unless it monetizes the meme support, which his exactly what it should do,\" Cramer said in hisReal Money Column Monday. \"&nbsp;GameStop needs a brilliant plan and while Cohen has brought in brilliant people, the issue is what is the company going to be? It can’t be what it is. No industry insider thinks that is possible.\"</p><p><blockquote>克莱默周一在他的Real Money专栏中表示：“目前AMC是一家市值300亿美元的公司，除非它将meme支持货币化，否则它生存的希望渺茫，而这正是它应该做的。”“游戏驿站需要一个出色的计划，虽然科恩引进了出色的人才，但问题是公司将会是什么样子？它不可能是现在的样子。没有业内人士认为这是可能的。”</blockquote></p><p> AMC shares were marked 4.3% higher in pre-market trading Monday to indicate an opening bell price of $61.85 each, a move that would take the stock's one-month gain to around 410%.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股价周一盘前交易中上涨4.3%，开盘价为每股61.85美元，此举将使该股一个月涨幅达到410%左右。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop shares edged 1.25% higher to $216.50 each, a gain of 22.5% from last month's levels.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站股价小幅上涨1.25%，至每股216.50美元，较上月水平上涨22.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Data from theYolosocks.livewebsite, which tracks real-time mentions on stocks within Reddit's r/wallstreetbets chatroom, indicates that AMC is still the most-discussed stock among users over the past 24 hours and more than 832 mentions.</p><p><blockquote>来自theyolosocks.live网站跟踪Reddit r/wallstreetbets聊天室中股票的实时提及情况，数据表明AMC仍然是过去24小时内用户讨论最多的股票，提及次数超过832次。</blockquote></p><p> Short interest in AMC shares remains elevated, however, with data from S3 Partners pegging it at 68.83 million. That represents around 13.8% of the outstanding float, or just under $4 billion in market value.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMC股票的空头兴趣仍然很高，S3 Partners的数据显示其空头兴趣为6883万股。这约占已发行流通股的13.8%，即市值略低于40亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For GameStop. short interest is around 11.5 million shares, or 19.9% of the outstanding float, pegging bets against the money-losing retailer at $2.64 billion.</p><p><blockquote>为了游戏驿站。空头权益约为1150万股，占已发行流通股的19.9%，对这家亏损零售商的押注为26.4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Higher as Meme Stocks Hold Gains; Jim Cramer Warns 'The Iceman Cometh'<blockquote>随着模因股票上涨，AMC走高；吉姆·克莱默警告“冰人来了”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Higher as Meme Stocks Hold Gains; Jim Cramer Warns 'The Iceman Cometh'<blockquote>随着模因股票上涨，AMC走高；吉姆·克莱默警告“冰人来了”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 20:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  AMC extends gains Monday, but TheStreet's founder, Jim Cramer, warns that meme-stocks influence has been whittled down to just two significant names.  AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;shares moved higher Monday, following a 20% gain last week that lifted the cinema chain's value close to $30 billion, as the two most active meme stock names continue to add value to retail investor portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>AMC周一延续涨势，但TheStreet创始人吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)警告称，模因股票的影响力已被削弱至只有两个重要名称。AMC院线(<b>AMC</b>)-Get Report股价周一走高，上周上涨20%，使这家连锁影院的价值接近300亿美元，因为两个最活跃的meme股票继续为散户投资者的投资组合增加价值。</blockquote></p><p> <i>TheStreet's</i>founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned Monday that the ability of meme-powered investors to boost stock prices could fade in the coming weeks, citing a series of failed recommendations from discussions on the r/wallstreetbets chatroom in Reddit.</p><p><blockquote><i>街道的</i>然而，创始人吉姆·克莱默（Jim Cramer）周一警告称，迷因驱动的投资者提振股价的能力可能会在未来几周内减弱，他引用了Reddit上r/wallstreetbets聊天室讨论中一系列失败的建议。</blockquote></p><p> Cramer noted that recent pullbacks in Wendy's&nbsp;(<b>WEN</b>) -Get Report, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond&nbsp;(<b>BBBY</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and Cleveland Cliffs&nbsp;(<b>CLF</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;-- all of which have benefited from either a meme-drive retail surge or an attempt to squeeze investors betting against the stock -- suggest a retrenchment of influence back to the two stocks that started this year's phenomena: AMC and GameStop&nbsp;(<b>GME</b>) -Get Report.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默指出，温迪快餐店最近的回调（<b>温</b>)-获取报告，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(<b>BBBY</b>)-获取报告和克利夫兰悬崖(<b>CLF</b>）-Get报告——所有这些都受益于模因驱动的散户激增或挤压做空该股的投资者的尝试——表明引发今年现象的两只股票的影响力正在缩小：AMC和游戏驿站（<b>GME</b>)-获取报告。</blockquote></p><p> With both stocks, however, Cramer says the only real bet is that CEO Adam Aron of AMC and Chairman Ryan Cohen of GameStop can raise enough money from the sale of shares to buy a sector rival and revive their failing businesses.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cramer表示，对于这两只股票，唯一真正的赌注是AMC首席执行官Adam Aron和游戏驿站董事长Ryan Cohen能够通过出售股票筹集足够的资金来收购行业竞争对手并重振他们失败的业务。</blockquote></p><p> AMC, which unveiled plans to sell 12 million new shares earlier this month after placing a further 8.5 million shares with hedge fund Mudrick Capital is looking for approval to sell 25 million shares at some point next year in order to fund potential 'value creating' investment opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>AMC在向对冲基金Mudrick Capital再配售850万股股票后，于本月早些时候公布了出售1200万股新股的计划，目前正在寻求批准在明年某个时候出售2500万股股票，以便为潜在的“价值创造”投资机会提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop, meanwhile, said it plans to sell up to 5 million shares in an \"at-the-market\" offering, noting it will use the capital for \"general corporate purposes\" and investing in \"growth initiatives\" following a first quarter loss.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，游戏驿站表示，计划在“市场”发行中出售最多500万股股票，并指出将把这笔资金用于“一般企业用途”，并在第一季度亏损后投资于“增长计划”。</blockquote></p><p> \"Right now AMC is a $30 billion company with very little hope that it can survive unless it monetizes the meme support, which his exactly what it should do,\" Cramer said in hisReal Money Column Monday. \"&nbsp;GameStop needs a brilliant plan and while Cohen has brought in brilliant people, the issue is what is the company going to be? It can’t be what it is. No industry insider thinks that is possible.\"</p><p><blockquote>克莱默周一在他的Real Money专栏中表示：“目前AMC是一家市值300亿美元的公司，除非它将meme支持货币化，否则它生存的希望渺茫，而这正是它应该做的。”“游戏驿站需要一个出色的计划，虽然科恩引进了出色的人才，但问题是公司将会是什么样子？它不可能是现在的样子。没有业内人士认为这是可能的。”</blockquote></p><p> AMC shares were marked 4.3% higher in pre-market trading Monday to indicate an opening bell price of $61.85 each, a move that would take the stock's one-month gain to around 410%.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股价周一盘前交易中上涨4.3%，开盘价为每股61.85美元，此举将使该股一个月涨幅达到410%左右。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop shares edged 1.25% higher to $216.50 each, a gain of 22.5% from last month's levels.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站股价小幅上涨1.25%，至每股216.50美元，较上月水平上涨22.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Data from theYolosocks.livewebsite, which tracks real-time mentions on stocks within Reddit's r/wallstreetbets chatroom, indicates that AMC is still the most-discussed stock among users over the past 24 hours and more than 832 mentions.</p><p><blockquote>来自theyolosocks.live网站跟踪Reddit r/wallstreetbets聊天室中股票的实时提及情况，数据表明AMC仍然是过去24小时内用户讨论最多的股票，提及次数超过832次。</blockquote></p><p> Short interest in AMC shares remains elevated, however, with data from S3 Partners pegging it at 68.83 million. That represents around 13.8% of the outstanding float, or just under $4 billion in market value.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMC股票的空头兴趣仍然很高，S3 Partners的数据显示其空头兴趣为6883万股。这约占已发行流通股的13.8%，即市值略低于40亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For GameStop. short interest is around 11.5 million shares, or 19.9% of the outstanding float, pegging bets against the money-losing retailer at $2.64 billion.</p><p><blockquote>为了游戏驿站。空头权益约为1150万股，占已发行流通股的19.9%，对这家亏损零售商的押注为26.4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/amc-rises-meme-stocks-hold-gains-jim-cramer-warns-iceman-cometh?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/amc-rises-meme-stocks-hold-gains-jim-cramer-warns-iceman-cometh?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147633739","content_text":"AMC extends gains Monday, but TheStreet's founder, Jim Cramer, warns that meme-stocks influence has been whittled down to just two significant names.\n\nAMC Entertainment (AMC) -Get Report shares moved higher Monday, following a 20% gain last week that lifted the cinema chain's value close to $30 billion, as the two most active meme stock names continue to add value to retail investor portfolios.\nTheStreet'sfounder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned Monday that the ability of meme-powered investors to boost stock prices could fade in the coming weeks, citing a series of failed recommendations from discussions on the r/wallstreetbets chatroom in Reddit.\nCramer noted that recent pullbacks in Wendy's (WEN) -Get Report, Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) -Get Report and Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) -Get Report -- all of which have benefited from either a meme-drive retail surge or an attempt to squeeze investors betting against the stock -- suggest a retrenchment of influence back to the two stocks that started this year's phenomena: AMC and GameStop (GME) -Get Report.\nWith both stocks, however, Cramer says the only real bet is that CEO Adam Aron of AMC and Chairman Ryan Cohen of GameStop can raise enough money from the sale of shares to buy a sector rival and revive their failing businesses.\nAMC, which unveiled plans to sell 12 million new shares earlier this month after placing a further 8.5 million shares with hedge fund Mudrick Capital is looking for approval to sell 25 million shares at some point next year in order to fund potential 'value creating' investment opportunities.\nGameStop, meanwhile, said it plans to sell up to 5 million shares in an \"at-the-market\" offering, noting it will use the capital for \"general corporate purposes\" and investing in \"growth initiatives\" following a first quarter loss.\n\"Right now AMC is a $30 billion company with very little hope that it can survive unless it monetizes the meme support, which his exactly what it should do,\" Cramer said in hisReal Money Column Monday. \" GameStop needs a brilliant plan and while Cohen has brought in brilliant people, the issue is what is the company going to be? It can’t be what it is. No industry insider thinks that is possible.\"\nAMC shares were marked 4.3% higher in pre-market trading Monday to indicate an opening bell price of $61.85 each, a move that would take the stock's one-month gain to around 410%.\nGameStop shares edged 1.25% higher to $216.50 each, a gain of 22.5% from last month's levels.\nData from theYolosocks.livewebsite, which tracks real-time mentions on stocks within Reddit's r/wallstreetbets chatroom, indicates that AMC is still the most-discussed stock among users over the past 24 hours and more than 832 mentions.\nShort interest in AMC shares remains elevated, however, with data from S3 Partners pegging it at 68.83 million. That represents around 13.8% of the outstanding float, or just under $4 billion in market value.\nFor GameStop. short interest is around 11.5 million shares, or 19.9% of the outstanding float, pegging bets against the money-losing retailer at $2.64 billion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164048064,"gmtCreate":1624162782958,"gmtModify":1631892187997,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Might as well say meme stock&nbsp; loke amc or gme&nbsp;or good stock like apple stock all cannot make it... Why like to write such article..","listText":"Might as well say meme stock&nbsp; loke amc or gme&nbsp;or good stock like apple stock all cannot make it... Why like to write such article..","text":"Might as well say meme stock loke amc or gme or good stock like apple stock all cannot make it... Why like to write such article..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164048064","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162740304,"gmtCreate":1624077362708,"gmtModify":1631892188011,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162740304","repostId":"1161408410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":189198168,"gmtCreate":1623247246454,"gmtModify":1631884220611,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol when it is 8 dollar we buy in... But when&nbsp; drop 10% they make effort to write a article... Just to spread the propganda hahaha&nbsp;","listText":"Lol when it is 8 dollar we buy in... But when&nbsp; drop 10% they make effort to write a article... Just to spread the propganda hahaha&nbsp;","text":"Lol when it is 8 dollar we buy in... But when drop 10% they make effort to write a article... Just to spread the propganda hahaha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189198168","repostId":"1157991918","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157991918","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623246947,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157991918?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-09 21:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC dropped over 10% in morning trading, Is AMC Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?<blockquote>AMC早盘下跌超10%，AMC股票现在是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157991918","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"AMC dropped over 10% in morning trading. Is AMC Stock A Buy Or Sell Now? Here's What Fundamentals, S","content":"<p>AMC dropped over 10% in morning trading.&nbsp;Is AMC Stock A Buy Or Sell Now? Here's What Fundamentals, Stock Chart Action, Mutual Fund Ownership Metrics Say.</p><p><blockquote>AMC早盘下跌超10%。AMC股票现在是买入还是卖出？以下是基本面、股票图表走势、共同基金所有权指标的说明。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c561ed81664985f5ab7c28caf5b1626\" tg-width=\"323\" tg-height=\"321\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Going to the movies is exciting. But can it match the action by<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(AMC)? Starting the year at just 2 a share,AMC stock has skyrocketed more than 36-foldto new all-time highs this past week.</p><p><blockquote>去看电影是令人兴奋的。但它能与<b>AMC院线</b>（AMC）？今年年初，AMC股价仅为每股2美元，过去一周已飙升超过36倍，创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Shares at one point fell more than 30% on Thursday on news the company plans to sell up to 11.55 million shares — or roughly 2.6% of the total common shares outstanding. AMC later announced completion of the offering, raising $587 million. But in recent days, the stock is holding firm, and it's showing bullish inside action relative to some big daily moves over the past week.</p><p><blockquote>周四，有消息称该公司计划出售最多1155万股股票，约占已发行普通股总数的2.6%，股价一度下跌超过30%。AMC随后宣布完成发行，筹集5.87亿美元。但最近几天，该股保持坚挺，相对于过去一周的一些每日大幅波动，该股表现出看涨的内部走势。</blockquote></p><p> Given extraordinary gains since late May, is it perhaps time to take some profits off the table?&nbsp;After all, the May rally carries theelements of a climax run. Or is it a buy now?</p><p><blockquote>鉴于自5月下旬以来的非凡涨幅，也许是时候取消一些利润了？毕竟，五月的反弹带有高潮的元素。还是现在就买？</blockquote></p><p> This story examines the fundamental, technical and fund ownership factors to determine if the Leawood, Kan., company scores a good probability of making money for stock traders.</p><p><blockquote>这个故事考察了基本面、技术和基金所有权因素，以确定堪萨斯州利伍德。，公司为股票交易者赚钱的概率很高。</blockquote></p><p> Consider this stat: Prior to Wednesday's giant gain, over just five sessions of trade (May 24 to 28), AMC obliterated the short sellers by rising as much as 203% to Friday's intraday peak of 36.72. AMC stock almost finished up 100% or more for a second straight week. Incredible.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下这个统计数据：在周三大幅上涨之前，在短短五个交易日（5月24日至28日）内，AMC股价上涨203%，达到周五盘中峰值36.72，消灭了卖空者。AMC股价几乎连续第二周上涨100%或更多。不可思议的。</blockquote></p><p> Following the long Memorial Day holiday weekend, AMC jammed nearly 23% higher Tuesday after the company announced an agreement to sell 8.5 million shares at $27.15 per share to Mudrick Capital. AMC said the proceeds would go toward strategic acquisitions of \"additional theatre leases, as well as investments to enhance the consumer appeal of AMC's existing theatres.\"</p><p><blockquote>阵亡将士纪念日长假周末过后，AMC周二宣布同意以每股27.15美元的价格向Mudrick Capital出售850万股股票，股价上涨近23%。AMC表示，所得款项将用于战略收购“额外的影院租赁，以及增强AMC现有影院消费者吸引力的投资”。</blockquote></p><p> Some of that money could also go toward paying down debt.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些钱也可以用于偿还债务。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Stock: Do You Have An Exit Strategy?</p><p><blockquote>AMC股票：你有退出策略吗？</blockquote></p><p> Some observers have expressed concern over the company's huge debt load ($5.4 billion in borrowings due one year from now or longer, as of March 31) vs. total assets ($10.5 billion) on the balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>一些观察人士对该公司巨大的债务负担（截至3月31日，一年或更长时间内到期的借款为54亿美元）与资产负债表上的总资产（105亿美元）相比表示担忧。</blockquote></p><p> On May 24, shares rallied more than 13% despite news that its heretofore largest shareholder, China's Wanda Group, has sold most of its remaining shares in AMC.</p><p><blockquote>5月24日，尽管有消息称其迄今为止最大的股东中国万达集团已出售其在AMC的大部分剩余股份，但该公司股价仍上涨超过13%。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, WallStreetBets chat-room traders on Reddit joined in unison in buying shares and bullish call options in AMC stock. They did the same in a band of other companies that had been heavily sold short and struggling. If you were watching or trading<b>GameStop</b>(GME), you likely were also keeping close tabs on AMC Entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，Reddit上的WallStreetBets聊天室交易员一致买入AMC股票并看涨看涨期权期权。他们在一批被大量卖空并陷入困境的其他公司中也做了同样的事情。如果您正在观看或交易<b>游戏驿站</b>(GME)，您可能也在密切关注AMC院线。</blockquote></p><p> Are The Shorts Covering AMC Stock?</p><p><blockquote>空头正在回补AMC股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> When a stock shows ahigh level of short interestand is getting bid up, you can almost count on a chain reaction of buying to occur. Why? Short sellers, betting on a decline in the stock, often have to do an about-face. They cover their short position by buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>当一只股票表现出很高的空头兴趣并且价格上涨时，你几乎可以指望会发生购买的连锁反应。为什么？押注股票下跌的卖空者往往不得不掉头。他们通过回购股票来弥补空头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> According to the latest data analyzed byMarketSmith, theshort interest— or shares sold short by individual and professional investors —&nbsp; is currently 0.7 times AMC stock's daily average volume of 132 million shares, or roughly 92 million shares. That's equivalent to 20% of the stock's entire float — huge. However, that amount may be skewed by the dramatic rise in daily share turnover.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketSmith分析的最新数据，空头兴趣（即个人和专业投资者卖空的股票）目前是AMC股票日均交易量1.32亿股（约合9200万股）的0.7倍。这相当于该股总流通量的20%——巨大。然而，这一金额可能会因每日股票成交量的大幅上升而出现偏差。</blockquote></p><p> Still, short sellers had clearly been betting big on a future decline.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，卖空者显然对未来的下跌下了很大的赌注。</blockquote></p><p> TheInvestor's Business Daily teamwill keep close watch for any signs that short interest has dropped lately.</p><p><blockquote>《投资者商业日报》团队将密切关注近期空头兴趣下降的任何迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Since late January, AMC stock has followed an extreme zigzag path.&nbsp;Just two weeks after that 20.36 peak, AMC crashed. Shares fell to as low as 5.26. Then came a huge second wave of buying, sending shares back in the low teens.</p><p><blockquote>自1月下旬以来，AMC股票遵循了一条极端的曲折路径。就在20.36峰值后两周，AMC崩溃了。股价跌至5.26。随后出现了第二波巨大的购买浪潮，使股价回到了十几岁。</blockquote></p><p> Week to week, the stock (pumping its market value back up to $25 billion, 450.3 million shares outstanding and a float of 441.3 million) has lately seen its overall price range narrow. That's good as thenew base formed.</p><p><blockquote>该股（市值回升至250亿美元，流通股4.503亿股，流通股4.413亿股）最近整体价格区间收窄。随着新基地的形成，这很好。</blockquote></p><p> Will AMC Stock Keep Rallying In The Long Term?</p><p><blockquote>AMC股票会长期保持上涨吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e13c3bc5de41e6ab81d88a5d9e269528\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Without a doubt, investors long in AMC are betting on a turnaround in fortunes.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，做多AMC的投资者押注于命运的好转。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, AMC lost $16.15 a share. Over the past five quarters, the company's sales have shrunk 22% to as much as 99% vs. year-ago levels. Such results would normally devastate most companies.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，AMC每股亏损16.15美元。过去五个季度，该公司的销售额与去年同期相比下降了22%至99%。这样的结果通常会摧毁大多数公司。</blockquote></p><p> But as movie theaters open across the country and boost seating capacity, Wall Street is banking on a tremendous rebound in the top line.</p><p><blockquote>但随着全国各地电影院的开业和座位容量的增加，华尔街寄希望于营收的大幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts polled by FactSet offer a consensus estimate of $375 million in second-quarter sales, up 1,884% from a minuscule $18.9 million in the year-ago quarter. Then they see sales rising an additional 561% in Q3 to $790 million and 575% in Q4 to $1.1 billion.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的分析师普遍估计第二季度销售额为3.75亿美元，比去年同期的1,890万美元增长1,884%。然后，他们预计第三季度销售额将增长561%，达到7.9亿美元，第四季度将增长575%，达到11亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wall Street expects net losses of $3.33 a share for 2021, a far cry from the unadjusted $39.15 it lost last year. And the Street sees net losses shrinking further in 2022, to 96 cents a share. Both estimates have gotten revised slightly upward, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街预计2021年每股净亏损为3.33美元，与去年未经调整的39.15美元相比相去甚远。华尔街预计2022年净亏损将进一步缩小至每股96美分。这两项估计都略有上调，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> With big sales expected to arrive, you can expect cash flows to greatly improve.</p><p><blockquote>随着大销售的到来，你可以期待现金流大大改善。</blockquote></p><p> Key IBD Ratings</p><p><blockquote>主要IBD评级</blockquote></p><p> The last time AMC paid a dividend came on March 23, 2020, at 3 cents per common share. If the company were to resume this cash payout, shareholders could attain an annualized 0.9% yield at the current price near 14 a share.</p><p><blockquote>AMC上一次支付股息是在2020年3月23日，每股普通股3美分。如果公司恢复这种现金支付，以目前每股近14美元的价格，股东可以获得0.9%的年化收益率。</blockquote></p><p> For now, AMC scores poorly in many of IBD's proprietary ratings. Headed into Monday's trading, they include a 22Earnings Per Share Ratingon a scale of 1 to 99; an E for Sales + Profit Margins + Return on Equity (SMR) Rating; and a 56Composite Ratingon a scale of 1 (wizened) to 99 (wizardly).</p><p><blockquote>目前，AMC在IBD的许多专有评级中得分很低。在周一的交易中，它们的每股收益评级为22，范围为1至99；销售额+利润率+股本回报率(SMR)评级为E；综合评分为56分，范围为1（萎缩）到99（神奇）。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, AMC's movies industry group ranks in the top half of IBD's197 industry groupsin terms of six-month relative performance. Decent, but not outstanding. Mutual funds owning a stake in AMC rose to 203 at the end of March vs. 186 in Q4 of 2020. Some portfolio managers are eager to accumulate shares.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，就六个月的相对表现而言，AMC的电影产业集团在IBD的197个产业集团中排名前一半。体面，但不突出。截至3月底，持有AMC股份的共同基金增至203只，而2020年第四季度为186只。一些投资组合经理渴望积累股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Stock Forecast</p><p><blockquote>AMC股票预测</blockquote></p><p> When choosing growth stocks for the biggest potential gains based on theCAN SLIM investment paradigm, your chances of finding a true market leader improve when you focus on those with aComposite Ratingof 90 or higher. Shooting for a 95 or higher, particularly at the start of a new bull market, is even better.</p><p><blockquote>当根据Can Slim投资范式选择具有最大潜在收益的成长型股票时，当您关注那些综合评级为90或更高的股票时，您找到真正市场领导者的机会就会增加。争取95或更高，尤其是在新一轮牛市开始时，就更好了。</blockquote></p><p> However, given that AMC stock is a turnaround play, it makes sense to place more emphasis on relative strength. AMC has that in spades.</p><p><blockquote>然而，鉴于AMC股票是一只扭亏为盈的股票，更多地强调相对实力是有意义的。AMC无疑拥有这一点。</blockquote></p><p> A 99Relative Strength Ratingon a scale of 1 to 99 means that the company has outperformed 99% of all stocks in the IBD database. Strong long-term performance? Indeed.The Accumulation/Distribution Rating, meanwhile, has jumped to a best-possible A+ grade on a scale of A to E.</p><p><blockquote>99相对实力评级（范围为1到99）意味着该公司的表现优于IBD数据库中99%的股票。长期表现强劲？确实。与此同时，积累/分配评级已跃升至A至E级的最佳A+级。</blockquote></p><p> Plus, notice on the weekly chart and inMarketSmith, how therelative strength linehas been vaulting.</p><p><blockquote>另外，请注意周线图和inMarketSmith上的相对强弱线是如何跳跃的。</blockquote></p><p> The RS line, drawn in blue, compares a stock or ETF's moves vs. the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>用蓝色绘制的RS线将股票或ETF的走势与标普500进行比较。</blockquote></p><p> When a stock breaks out of anew base, prefer to see the RS line also running to new high ground. This means that a stock is now outperforming the general market.</p><p><blockquote>当股票突破新的基础时，更希望看到RS线也运行到新高。这意味着一只股票现在的表现优于大盘。</blockquote></p><p> In essence, AMC created a boxy cup-like base over the past two months. That's plenty of time for asolid cup patternto form. This pattern produces aproper buy pointof 10 cents above the cup's left-side peak of 14.54 on March 18. So in AMC stock's case, thecorrect entrystood at 14.64. You want to see heavy volume on the breakout.</p><p><blockquote>本质上，AMC在过去两个月里创造了一个四四方方的杯子状底座。有足够的时间形成实心杯图案。该形态在3月18日杯子左侧峰值14.54上方产生了10美分的适当买入点。因此，就AMC股票而言，正确的进场点为14.64。你希望在突破时看到放量。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion: Is It A Buy Now? Or A Sell?</p><p><blockquote>结论：现在买吗？还是卖出？</blockquote></p><p> In effect,AMC stockhas staged astrong breakouttwice last week.</p><p><blockquote>实际上，AMC股票上周两次强劲突破。</blockquote></p><p> First, AMC had to surpass 14.64 before becoming a new buy. The May 18 attempt was short-lived. However, a 20% gain on May 25 sent shares zooming past theproper buy point.</p><p><blockquote>首先，AMC必须超过14.64才能成为新买入。5月18日的尝试是短暂的。然而，5月25日20%的涨幅导致股价飙升至适当的买入点。</blockquote></p><p> The5% buy zonegoes up to 15.37, so the stock quickly got extended.</p><p><blockquote>5%买入区升至15.37，因此该股迅速扩大。</blockquote></p><p> As always, control your risk. Not all breakouts work, especially when thestock market uptrend is under pressure. The best time to buy? When IBD notes the stock market in aconfirmed uptrend, it signifies that buying demand is healthy among institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>一如既往，控制你的风险。并非所有突破都有效，尤其是当股市上升趋势面临压力时。最佳买入时机？当IBD注意到股市处于确认的上升趋势时，这表明机构投资者的购买需求是健康的。</blockquote></p><p> In stock investing, you want the wind at your back, not in your face.</p><p><blockquote>在股票投资中，你希望风在你背后，而不是在你面前。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, this story suggested keeping a close eye on how AMC stock handles potential upside resistance near 20. In fact, the action since that incredible week ended Jan. 29 could also be viewed as adeep cup pattern. From that vantage point, AMC delivered a second breakout, surpassing a new 20.46buy pointwith fury.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，这篇报道建议密切关注AMC股票如何应对20点附近的潜在上行阻力。事实上，自1月29日结束的那令人难以置信的一周以来的行动也可以被视为深杯模式。从这个有利位置来看，AMC实现了第二次突破，愤怒地超过了新的20.46买入点。</blockquote></p><p> To get this additional entry in acup without handle, simply add 10 cents to the cup's left-side high — in this case, 20.36. On May 27, shares rifled past this entry and has not looked back. Still, with gains of as much as 501% in just two weeks, it makes sense to lock in at least partial profits.</p><p><blockquote>要在没有手柄的情况下获得acup的额外入口，只需在杯子的左侧高点上增加10美分——在本例中为20.36美分。5月27日，股价突破了这一关口，并且没有回头。尽管如此，由于短短两周内涨幅高达501%，至少锁定部分利润是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> And after you buy any stock with solid prospects,don't forget the golden rule of investing. Keeping your losses small keeps you in the investing game for the long haul.</p><p><blockquote>在您购买任何前景良好的股票后，不要忘记投资的黄金法则。保持较小的损失可以让您长期参与投资游戏。</blockquote></p><p> Yet at this point, AMC is sharply extended from anIBD-style entry point. Keep watching to see if a new base will form; this could set up a new breakout opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>然而在这一点上，AMC从IBD式的切入点急剧延伸。继续观察是否会形成新的基地；这可能会创造一个新的突破机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC dropped over 10% in morning trading, Is AMC Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?<blockquote>AMC早盘下跌超10%，AMC股票现在是买入还是卖出？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC dropped over 10% in morning trading, Is AMC Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?<blockquote>AMC早盘下跌超10%，AMC股票现在是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-09 21:55</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMC dropped over 10% in morning trading.&nbsp;Is AMC Stock A Buy Or Sell Now? Here's What Fundamentals, Stock Chart Action, Mutual Fund Ownership Metrics Say.</p><p><blockquote>AMC早盘下跌超10%。AMC股票现在是买入还是卖出？以下是基本面、股票图表走势、共同基金所有权指标的说明。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c561ed81664985f5ab7c28caf5b1626\" tg-width=\"323\" tg-height=\"321\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Going to the movies is exciting. But can it match the action by<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(AMC)? Starting the year at just 2 a share,AMC stock has skyrocketed more than 36-foldto new all-time highs this past week.</p><p><blockquote>去看电影是令人兴奋的。但它能与<b>AMC院线</b>（AMC）？今年年初，AMC股价仅为每股2美元，过去一周已飙升超过36倍，创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Shares at one point fell more than 30% on Thursday on news the company plans to sell up to 11.55 million shares — or roughly 2.6% of the total common shares outstanding. AMC later announced completion of the offering, raising $587 million. But in recent days, the stock is holding firm, and it's showing bullish inside action relative to some big daily moves over the past week.</p><p><blockquote>周四，有消息称该公司计划出售最多1155万股股票，约占已发行普通股总数的2.6%，股价一度下跌超过30%。AMC随后宣布完成发行，筹集5.87亿美元。但最近几天，该股保持坚挺，相对于过去一周的一些每日大幅波动，该股表现出看涨的内部走势。</blockquote></p><p> Given extraordinary gains since late May, is it perhaps time to take some profits off the table?&nbsp;After all, the May rally carries theelements of a climax run. Or is it a buy now?</p><p><blockquote>鉴于自5月下旬以来的非凡涨幅，也许是时候取消一些利润了？毕竟，五月的反弹带有高潮的元素。还是现在就买？</blockquote></p><p> This story examines the fundamental, technical and fund ownership factors to determine if the Leawood, Kan., company scores a good probability of making money for stock traders.</p><p><blockquote>这个故事考察了基本面、技术和基金所有权因素，以确定堪萨斯州利伍德。，公司为股票交易者赚钱的概率很高。</blockquote></p><p> Consider this stat: Prior to Wednesday's giant gain, over just five sessions of trade (May 24 to 28), AMC obliterated the short sellers by rising as much as 203% to Friday's intraday peak of 36.72. AMC stock almost finished up 100% or more for a second straight week. Incredible.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下这个统计数据：在周三大幅上涨之前，在短短五个交易日（5月24日至28日）内，AMC股价上涨203%，达到周五盘中峰值36.72，消灭了卖空者。AMC股价几乎连续第二周上涨100%或更多。不可思议的。</blockquote></p><p> Following the long Memorial Day holiday weekend, AMC jammed nearly 23% higher Tuesday after the company announced an agreement to sell 8.5 million shares at $27.15 per share to Mudrick Capital. AMC said the proceeds would go toward strategic acquisitions of \"additional theatre leases, as well as investments to enhance the consumer appeal of AMC's existing theatres.\"</p><p><blockquote>阵亡将士纪念日长假周末过后，AMC周二宣布同意以每股27.15美元的价格向Mudrick Capital出售850万股股票，股价上涨近23%。AMC表示，所得款项将用于战略收购“额外的影院租赁，以及增强AMC现有影院消费者吸引力的投资”。</blockquote></p><p> Some of that money could also go toward paying down debt.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些钱也可以用于偿还债务。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Stock: Do You Have An Exit Strategy?</p><p><blockquote>AMC股票：你有退出策略吗？</blockquote></p><p> Some observers have expressed concern over the company's huge debt load ($5.4 billion in borrowings due one year from now or longer, as of March 31) vs. total assets ($10.5 billion) on the balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>一些观察人士对该公司巨大的债务负担（截至3月31日，一年或更长时间内到期的借款为54亿美元）与资产负债表上的总资产（105亿美元）相比表示担忧。</blockquote></p><p> On May 24, shares rallied more than 13% despite news that its heretofore largest shareholder, China's Wanda Group, has sold most of its remaining shares in AMC.</p><p><blockquote>5月24日，尽管有消息称其迄今为止最大的股东中国万达集团已出售其在AMC的大部分剩余股份，但该公司股价仍上涨超过13%。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, WallStreetBets chat-room traders on Reddit joined in unison in buying shares and bullish call options in AMC stock. They did the same in a band of other companies that had been heavily sold short and struggling. If you were watching or trading<b>GameStop</b>(GME), you likely were also keeping close tabs on AMC Entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，Reddit上的WallStreetBets聊天室交易员一致买入AMC股票并看涨看涨期权期权。他们在一批被大量卖空并陷入困境的其他公司中也做了同样的事情。如果您正在观看或交易<b>游戏驿站</b>(GME)，您可能也在密切关注AMC院线。</blockquote></p><p> Are The Shorts Covering AMC Stock?</p><p><blockquote>空头正在回补AMC股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> When a stock shows ahigh level of short interestand is getting bid up, you can almost count on a chain reaction of buying to occur. Why? Short sellers, betting on a decline in the stock, often have to do an about-face. They cover their short position by buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>当一只股票表现出很高的空头兴趣并且价格上涨时，你几乎可以指望会发生购买的连锁反应。为什么？押注股票下跌的卖空者往往不得不掉头。他们通过回购股票来弥补空头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> According to the latest data analyzed byMarketSmith, theshort interest— or shares sold short by individual and professional investors —&nbsp; is currently 0.7 times AMC stock's daily average volume of 132 million shares, or roughly 92 million shares. That's equivalent to 20% of the stock's entire float — huge. However, that amount may be skewed by the dramatic rise in daily share turnover.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketSmith分析的最新数据，空头兴趣（即个人和专业投资者卖空的股票）目前是AMC股票日均交易量1.32亿股（约合9200万股）的0.7倍。这相当于该股总流通量的20%——巨大。然而，这一金额可能会因每日股票成交量的大幅上升而出现偏差。</blockquote></p><p> Still, short sellers had clearly been betting big on a future decline.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，卖空者显然对未来的下跌下了很大的赌注。</blockquote></p><p> TheInvestor's Business Daily teamwill keep close watch for any signs that short interest has dropped lately.</p><p><blockquote>《投资者商业日报》团队将密切关注近期空头兴趣下降的任何迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Since late January, AMC stock has followed an extreme zigzag path.&nbsp;Just two weeks after that 20.36 peak, AMC crashed. Shares fell to as low as 5.26. Then came a huge second wave of buying, sending shares back in the low teens.</p><p><blockquote>自1月下旬以来，AMC股票遵循了一条极端的曲折路径。就在20.36峰值后两周，AMC崩溃了。股价跌至5.26。随后出现了第二波巨大的购买浪潮，使股价回到了十几岁。</blockquote></p><p> Week to week, the stock (pumping its market value back up to $25 billion, 450.3 million shares outstanding and a float of 441.3 million) has lately seen its overall price range narrow. That's good as thenew base formed.</p><p><blockquote>该股（市值回升至250亿美元，流通股4.503亿股，流通股4.413亿股）最近整体价格区间收窄。随着新基地的形成，这很好。</blockquote></p><p> Will AMC Stock Keep Rallying In The Long Term?</p><p><blockquote>AMC股票会长期保持上涨吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e13c3bc5de41e6ab81d88a5d9e269528\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Without a doubt, investors long in AMC are betting on a turnaround in fortunes.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，做多AMC的投资者押注于命运的好转。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, AMC lost $16.15 a share. Over the past five quarters, the company's sales have shrunk 22% to as much as 99% vs. year-ago levels. Such results would normally devastate most companies.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，AMC每股亏损16.15美元。过去五个季度，该公司的销售额与去年同期相比下降了22%至99%。这样的结果通常会摧毁大多数公司。</blockquote></p><p> But as movie theaters open across the country and boost seating capacity, Wall Street is banking on a tremendous rebound in the top line.</p><p><blockquote>但随着全国各地电影院的开业和座位容量的增加，华尔街寄希望于营收的大幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts polled by FactSet offer a consensus estimate of $375 million in second-quarter sales, up 1,884% from a minuscule $18.9 million in the year-ago quarter. Then they see sales rising an additional 561% in Q3 to $790 million and 575% in Q4 to $1.1 billion.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的分析师普遍估计第二季度销售额为3.75亿美元，比去年同期的1,890万美元增长1,884%。然后，他们预计第三季度销售额将增长561%，达到7.9亿美元，第四季度将增长575%，达到11亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wall Street expects net losses of $3.33 a share for 2021, a far cry from the unadjusted $39.15 it lost last year. And the Street sees net losses shrinking further in 2022, to 96 cents a share. Both estimates have gotten revised slightly upward, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街预计2021年每股净亏损为3.33美元，与去年未经调整的39.15美元相比相去甚远。华尔街预计2022年净亏损将进一步缩小至每股96美分。这两项估计都略有上调，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> With big sales expected to arrive, you can expect cash flows to greatly improve.</p><p><blockquote>随着大销售的到来，你可以期待现金流大大改善。</blockquote></p><p> Key IBD Ratings</p><p><blockquote>主要IBD评级</blockquote></p><p> The last time AMC paid a dividend came on March 23, 2020, at 3 cents per common share. If the company were to resume this cash payout, shareholders could attain an annualized 0.9% yield at the current price near 14 a share.</p><p><blockquote>AMC上一次支付股息是在2020年3月23日，每股普通股3美分。如果公司恢复这种现金支付，以目前每股近14美元的价格，股东可以获得0.9%的年化收益率。</blockquote></p><p> For now, AMC scores poorly in many of IBD's proprietary ratings. Headed into Monday's trading, they include a 22Earnings Per Share Ratingon a scale of 1 to 99; an E for Sales + Profit Margins + Return on Equity (SMR) Rating; and a 56Composite Ratingon a scale of 1 (wizened) to 99 (wizardly).</p><p><blockquote>目前，AMC在IBD的许多专有评级中得分很低。在周一的交易中，它们的每股收益评级为22，范围为1至99；销售额+利润率+股本回报率(SMR)评级为E；综合评分为56分，范围为1（萎缩）到99（神奇）。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, AMC's movies industry group ranks in the top half of IBD's197 industry groupsin terms of six-month relative performance. Decent, but not outstanding. Mutual funds owning a stake in AMC rose to 203 at the end of March vs. 186 in Q4 of 2020. Some portfolio managers are eager to accumulate shares.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，就六个月的相对表现而言，AMC的电影产业集团在IBD的197个产业集团中排名前一半。体面，但不突出。截至3月底，持有AMC股份的共同基金增至203只，而2020年第四季度为186只。一些投资组合经理渴望积累股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Stock Forecast</p><p><blockquote>AMC股票预测</blockquote></p><p> When choosing growth stocks for the biggest potential gains based on theCAN SLIM investment paradigm, your chances of finding a true market leader improve when you focus on those with aComposite Ratingof 90 or higher. Shooting for a 95 or higher, particularly at the start of a new bull market, is even better.</p><p><blockquote>当根据Can Slim投资范式选择具有最大潜在收益的成长型股票时，当您关注那些综合评级为90或更高的股票时，您找到真正市场领导者的机会就会增加。争取95或更高，尤其是在新一轮牛市开始时，就更好了。</blockquote></p><p> However, given that AMC stock is a turnaround play, it makes sense to place more emphasis on relative strength. AMC has that in spades.</p><p><blockquote>然而，鉴于AMC股票是一只扭亏为盈的股票，更多地强调相对实力是有意义的。AMC无疑拥有这一点。</blockquote></p><p> A 99Relative Strength Ratingon a scale of 1 to 99 means that the company has outperformed 99% of all stocks in the IBD database. Strong long-term performance? Indeed.The Accumulation/Distribution Rating, meanwhile, has jumped to a best-possible A+ grade on a scale of A to E.</p><p><blockquote>99相对实力评级（范围为1到99）意味着该公司的表现优于IBD数据库中99%的股票。长期表现强劲？确实。与此同时，积累/分配评级已跃升至A至E级的最佳A+级。</blockquote></p><p> Plus, notice on the weekly chart and inMarketSmith, how therelative strength linehas been vaulting.</p><p><blockquote>另外，请注意周线图和inMarketSmith上的相对强弱线是如何跳跃的。</blockquote></p><p> The RS line, drawn in blue, compares a stock or ETF's moves vs. the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>用蓝色绘制的RS线将股票或ETF的走势与标普500进行比较。</blockquote></p><p> When a stock breaks out of anew base, prefer to see the RS line also running to new high ground. This means that a stock is now outperforming the general market.</p><p><blockquote>当股票突破新的基础时，更希望看到RS线也运行到新高。这意味着一只股票现在的表现优于大盘。</blockquote></p><p> In essence, AMC created a boxy cup-like base over the past two months. That's plenty of time for asolid cup patternto form. This pattern produces aproper buy pointof 10 cents above the cup's left-side peak of 14.54 on March 18. So in AMC stock's case, thecorrect entrystood at 14.64. You want to see heavy volume on the breakout.</p><p><blockquote>本质上，AMC在过去两个月里创造了一个四四方方的杯子状底座。有足够的时间形成实心杯图案。该形态在3月18日杯子左侧峰值14.54上方产生了10美分的适当买入点。因此，就AMC股票而言，正确的进场点为14.64。你希望在突破时看到放量。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion: Is It A Buy Now? Or A Sell?</p><p><blockquote>结论：现在买吗？还是卖出？</blockquote></p><p> In effect,AMC stockhas staged astrong breakouttwice last week.</p><p><blockquote>实际上，AMC股票上周两次强劲突破。</blockquote></p><p> First, AMC had to surpass 14.64 before becoming a new buy. The May 18 attempt was short-lived. However, a 20% gain on May 25 sent shares zooming past theproper buy point.</p><p><blockquote>首先，AMC必须超过14.64才能成为新买入。5月18日的尝试是短暂的。然而，5月25日20%的涨幅导致股价飙升至适当的买入点。</blockquote></p><p> The5% buy zonegoes up to 15.37, so the stock quickly got extended.</p><p><blockquote>5%买入区升至15.37，因此该股迅速扩大。</blockquote></p><p> As always, control your risk. Not all breakouts work, especially when thestock market uptrend is under pressure. The best time to buy? When IBD notes the stock market in aconfirmed uptrend, it signifies that buying demand is healthy among institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>一如既往，控制你的风险。并非所有突破都有效，尤其是当股市上升趋势面临压力时。最佳买入时机？当IBD注意到股市处于确认的上升趋势时，这表明机构投资者的购买需求是健康的。</blockquote></p><p> In stock investing, you want the wind at your back, not in your face.</p><p><blockquote>在股票投资中，你希望风在你背后，而不是在你面前。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, this story suggested keeping a close eye on how AMC stock handles potential upside resistance near 20. In fact, the action since that incredible week ended Jan. 29 could also be viewed as adeep cup pattern. From that vantage point, AMC delivered a second breakout, surpassing a new 20.46buy pointwith fury.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，这篇报道建议密切关注AMC股票如何应对20点附近的潜在上行阻力。事实上，自1月29日结束的那令人难以置信的一周以来的行动也可以被视为深杯模式。从这个有利位置来看，AMC实现了第二次突破，愤怒地超过了新的20.46买入点。</blockquote></p><p> To get this additional entry in acup without handle, simply add 10 cents to the cup's left-side high — in this case, 20.36. On May 27, shares rifled past this entry and has not looked back. Still, with gains of as much as 501% in just two weeks, it makes sense to lock in at least partial profits.</p><p><blockquote>要在没有手柄的情况下获得acup的额外入口，只需在杯子的左侧高点上增加10美分——在本例中为20.36美分。5月27日，股价突破了这一关口，并且没有回头。尽管如此，由于短短两周内涨幅高达501%，至少锁定部分利润是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> And after you buy any stock with solid prospects,don't forget the golden rule of investing. Keeping your losses small keeps you in the investing game for the long haul.</p><p><blockquote>在您购买任何前景良好的股票后，不要忘记投资的黄金法则。保持较小的损失可以让您长期参与投资游戏。</blockquote></p><p> Yet at this point, AMC is sharply extended from anIBD-style entry point. Keep watching to see if a new base will form; this could set up a new breakout opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>然而在这一点上，AMC从IBD式的切入点急剧延伸。继续观察是否会形成新的基地；这可能会创造一个新的突破机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157991918","content_text":"AMC dropped over 10% in morning trading. Is AMC Stock A Buy Or Sell Now? Here's What Fundamentals, Stock Chart Action, Mutual Fund Ownership Metrics Say.\n\nGoing to the movies is exciting. But can it match the action byAMC Entertainment(AMC)? Starting the year at just 2 a share,AMC stock has skyrocketed more than 36-foldto new all-time highs this past week.\nShares at one point fell more than 30% on Thursday on news the company plans to sell up to 11.55 million shares — or roughly 2.6% of the total common shares outstanding. AMC later announced completion of the offering, raising $587 million. But in recent days, the stock is holding firm, and it's showing bullish inside action relative to some big daily moves over the past week.\nGiven extraordinary gains since late May, is it perhaps time to take some profits off the table? After all, the May rally carries theelements of a climax run. Or is it a buy now?\nThis story examines the fundamental, technical and fund ownership factors to determine if the Leawood, Kan., company scores a good probability of making money for stock traders.\nConsider this stat: Prior to Wednesday's giant gain, over just five sessions of trade (May 24 to 28), AMC obliterated the short sellers by rising as much as 203% to Friday's intraday peak of 36.72. AMC stock almost finished up 100% or more for a second straight week. Incredible.\nFollowing the long Memorial Day holiday weekend, AMC jammed nearly 23% higher Tuesday after the company announced an agreement to sell 8.5 million shares at $27.15 per share to Mudrick Capital. AMC said the proceeds would go toward strategic acquisitions of \"additional theatre leases, as well as investments to enhance the consumer appeal of AMC's existing theatres.\"\nSome of that money could also go toward paying down debt.\nAMC Stock: Do You Have An Exit Strategy?\nSome observers have expressed concern over the company's huge debt load ($5.4 billion in borrowings due one year from now or longer, as of March 31) vs. total assets ($10.5 billion) on the balance sheet.\nOn May 24, shares rallied more than 13% despite news that its heretofore largest shareholder, China's Wanda Group, has sold most of its remaining shares in AMC.\nEarlier this year, WallStreetBets chat-room traders on Reddit joined in unison in buying shares and bullish call options in AMC stock. They did the same in a band of other companies that had been heavily sold short and struggling. If you were watching or tradingGameStop(GME), you likely were also keeping close tabs on AMC Entertainment.\nAre The Shorts Covering AMC Stock?\nWhen a stock shows ahigh level of short interestand is getting bid up, you can almost count on a chain reaction of buying to occur. Why? Short sellers, betting on a decline in the stock, often have to do an about-face. They cover their short position by buying back shares.\nAccording to the latest data analyzed byMarketSmith, theshort interest— or shares sold short by individual and professional investors —  is currently 0.7 times AMC stock's daily average volume of 132 million shares, or roughly 92 million shares. That's equivalent to 20% of the stock's entire float — huge. However, that amount may be skewed by the dramatic rise in daily share turnover.\nStill, short sellers had clearly been betting big on a future decline.\nTheInvestor's Business Daily teamwill keep close watch for any signs that short interest has dropped lately.\nSince late January, AMC stock has followed an extreme zigzag path. Just two weeks after that 20.36 peak, AMC crashed. Shares fell to as low as 5.26. Then came a huge second wave of buying, sending shares back in the low teens.\nWeek to week, the stock (pumping its market value back up to $25 billion, 450.3 million shares outstanding and a float of 441.3 million) has lately seen its overall price range narrow. That's good as thenew base formed.\nWill AMC Stock Keep Rallying In The Long Term?\nWithout a doubt, investors long in AMC are betting on a turnaround in fortunes.\nIn 2020, AMC lost $16.15 a share. Over the past five quarters, the company's sales have shrunk 22% to as much as 99% vs. year-ago levels. Such results would normally devastate most companies.\nBut as movie theaters open across the country and boost seating capacity, Wall Street is banking on a tremendous rebound in the top line.\nAnalysts polled by FactSet offer a consensus estimate of $375 million in second-quarter sales, up 1,884% from a minuscule $18.9 million in the year-ago quarter. Then they see sales rising an additional 561% in Q3 to $790 million and 575% in Q4 to $1.1 billion.\nWall Street expects net losses of $3.33 a share for 2021, a far cry from the unadjusted $39.15 it lost last year. And the Street sees net losses shrinking further in 2022, to 96 cents a share. Both estimates have gotten revised slightly upward, a bullish sign.\nWith big sales expected to arrive, you can expect cash flows to greatly improve.\nKey IBD Ratings\nThe last time AMC paid a dividend came on March 23, 2020, at 3 cents per common share. If the company were to resume this cash payout, shareholders could attain an annualized 0.9% yield at the current price near 14 a share.\nFor now, AMC scores poorly in many of IBD's proprietary ratings. Headed into Monday's trading, they include a 22Earnings Per Share Ratingon a scale of 1 to 99; an E for Sales + Profit Margins + Return on Equity (SMR) Rating; and a 56Composite Ratingon a scale of 1 (wizened) to 99 (wizardly).\nMeanwhile, AMC's movies industry group ranks in the top half of IBD's197 industry groupsin terms of six-month relative performance. Decent, but not outstanding. Mutual funds owning a stake in AMC rose to 203 at the end of March vs. 186 in Q4 of 2020. Some portfolio managers are eager to accumulate shares.\nAMC Stock Forecast\nWhen choosing growth stocks for the biggest potential gains based on theCAN SLIM investment paradigm, your chances of finding a true market leader improve when you focus on those with aComposite Ratingof 90 or higher. Shooting for a 95 or higher, particularly at the start of a new bull market, is even better.\nHowever, given that AMC stock is a turnaround play, it makes sense to place more emphasis on relative strength. AMC has that in spades.\nA 99Relative Strength Ratingon a scale of 1 to 99 means that the company has outperformed 99% of all stocks in the IBD database. Strong long-term performance? Indeed.The Accumulation/Distribution Rating, meanwhile, has jumped to a best-possible A+ grade on a scale of A to E.\nPlus, notice on the weekly chart and inMarketSmith, how therelative strength linehas been vaulting.\nThe RS line, drawn in blue, compares a stock or ETF's moves vs. the S&P 500.\nWhen a stock breaks out of anew base, prefer to see the RS line also running to new high ground. This means that a stock is now outperforming the general market.\nIn essence, AMC created a boxy cup-like base over the past two months. That's plenty of time for asolid cup patternto form. This pattern produces aproper buy pointof 10 cents above the cup's left-side peak of 14.54 on March 18. So in AMC stock's case, thecorrect entrystood at 14.64. You want to see heavy volume on the breakout.\nConclusion: Is It A Buy Now? Or A Sell?\nIn effect,AMC stockhas staged astrong breakouttwice last week.\nFirst, AMC had to surpass 14.64 before becoming a new buy. The May 18 attempt was short-lived. However, a 20% gain on May 25 sent shares zooming past theproper buy point.\nThe5% buy zonegoes up to 15.37, so the stock quickly got extended.\nAs always, control your risk. Not all breakouts work, especially when thestock market uptrend is under pressure. The best time to buy? When IBD notes the stock market in aconfirmed uptrend, it signifies that buying demand is healthy among institutional investors.\nIn stock investing, you want the wind at your back, not in your face.\nLast month, this story suggested keeping a close eye on how AMC stock handles potential upside resistance near 20. In fact, the action since that incredible week ended Jan. 29 could also be viewed as adeep cup pattern. From that vantage point, AMC delivered a second breakout, surpassing a new 20.46buy pointwith fury.\nTo get this additional entry in acup without handle, simply add 10 cents to the cup's left-side high — in this case, 20.36. On May 27, shares rifled past this entry and has not looked back. Still, with gains of as much as 501% in just two weeks, it makes sense to lock in at least partial profits.\nAnd after you buy any stock with solid prospects,don't forget the golden rule of investing. Keeping your losses small keeps you in the investing game for the long haul.\nYet at this point, AMC is sharply extended from anIBD-style entry point. Keep watching to see if a new base will form; this could set up a new breakout opportunity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146751957,"gmtCreate":1626100494179,"gmtModify":1631890345243,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fake news lol hedge fund must be worry... This mean amc going to 🚀 buy and hold hold lol&nbsp;","listText":"Fake news lol hedge fund must be worry... This mean amc going to 🚀 buy and hold hold lol&nbsp;","text":"Fake news lol hedge fund must be worry... This mean amc going to 🚀 buy and hold hold lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146751957","repostId":"2150580297","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881369097,"gmtCreate":1631294134119,"gmtModify":1631884398047,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>&nbsp;buy n holddd","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>&nbsp;buy n holddd","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ buy n holddd","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ee5e5aa5a5469357b921f3d3176701f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881369097","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172887967,"gmtCreate":1626951880359,"gmtModify":1631890345233,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol propganda lol&nbsp;","listText":"Lol propganda lol&nbsp;","text":"Lol propganda lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172887967","repostId":"1192458370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192458370","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626938362,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192458370?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 15:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192458370","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - ","content":"<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p><p><blockquote>这与本月初的看涨情绪截然不同，当时该行首次正确地指出，S&amp;P正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，7月1日至15日期间公布了一系列新高（在16日和19日抛售之前）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p><p><blockquote>...在对为什么“空头必须回补”进行冗长的合理化解释之后，高盛最近几天出人意料地变得看跌，在高盛流量交易员约翰·弗洛德周一敦促高盛客户“不要逢低买入”两天后（剧透警告：他们做到了），他的交易部门同事斯科特·鲁布纳（Scott Rubner）发表了一份报告，预览了为什么他预计未来几天会出现调整，并将持续到8月底的杰克逊霍尔研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p><p><blockquote>我们在下面摘录他的报告，其中包含高盛8月份“修正”论点背后的关键论点，包括战术性资金流动、卖家加速以及GS股票交易大厅的反馈。</blockquote></p><p> So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p><p><blockquote>所以事不宜迟，下面是鲁布纳，他展示了他的“<b><i>8月份修正的11点清单”</i></b>，首先注意到“<i>过去48小时内我收件箱/IB中出现的第一个问题。当资金外流且购买需求放缓时，股市会发生什么？</i>正如我们在下面读到的，最合适的答案是“没什么好的。”</blockquote></p><p>   <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i>   <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>  <u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p><p><blockquote><i>11点清单-一致的客户反馈，以快速降低股票风险，从而降低杰克逊霍尔的潜在购买需求。共识反馈似乎要求修正-5%，实际上达到了-4%。这是本周即将进入你收件箱的话题的回顾。我认为今天早上的反弹会随着当天早些时候买票的完成而消退。</i><i><b>“逢高卖出”是与逢低买入的新动态。</b></i><u><b>1.季节性疲软</b></u>——自1928年以来，我们刚刚结束了一年中最好的两周时期。周五期权到期结束了一年中最好的季节性时期。<b>八月季节性对市场不利，整个八月呈下降趋势，为一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期</b>.今天你在这里，杰克逊霍尔是这张图表的低点。自1950年以来，72年来，S&amp;P指数有19次在上半年上涨至少超过10%。在强劲的1H之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降-51个基点，然后反弹走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>2.年度最大流出量</b></u>-投资者在7月份向市场分配资金，我们已经看到了这些创纪录的资金流入。这是今年股市最大的动态。资金流入继续以创纪录的速度增长，2021年年流入量为1.2万亿美元。401k资金主要流入S&amp;P和NDX，而不是ROW。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.8月份预测流量的逆转</b></u>——8月份股权流入并不常见。在过去的30年里，<b>八月通常是一年中最大的资金流出</b>.-15个基点的资产管理规模通常会在8月份离开股市基金，我们模拟价值约22万亿美元的股票待售。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>4.流出续。</u></b>需要明确的是，-330亿美元在调整市值后并不是一个重要的数字，但更重要的是它不是流入。鉴于资金流入抬高了最大和最大市值指数权重，该指数水平仍保持在ATHs。周一，我们看到一个巨大的MOC失衡出售，这是不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>5.被动流动推动最大市值</b></u>-仅在今年上半年，被动型ETF就创下了有记录以来最好的全年资金流入。(+500b)。我每天都看录像带记录大量的MOC失衡在美国东部时间下午3:50购买，<b>但是如果这种动力消失了呢？</b>请记住，流入SPDR标普500指数ETF的1美元将流入前5名公司0.23美分，流入QQQ的1美元将流入前5名公司0.41美分。如果流入转为流出，您将不再看到广泛的指数动态。<b>那么投资者需要决定哪个板块成为流出的资金来源。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p><p><blockquote>这对标普500有多重要？重要的！</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>  <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>  <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>  <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>全球股票：1年期：+600B美元被动（入）与0.0 B美元主动（出）=&gt;600B美元。</li><li>全球股票：5年期：+$2.30 T被动（入）vs.-$1.90 T主动（出）=&gt;$4.2 T</li><li>全球股票：10年期：+$4T被动（入）vs.-$3.0 T主动（出）=&gt;$7.0 T</li><li>当前全球股票主动资产管理规模为10.099吨，超过当前全球股票被动资产管理规模7.225吨。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>旁注：ETF占名义执行量的36%，为2020年3月/4月以来的最后水平。（年初至今平均值）=24%。你看到SQQQ周一的巨量（3倍空头QQQ）了吗？</i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>六、单一股票评级</b></u>-这是非常类似于2020年7月和8月看涨期权期权交易的结果吹顶。提醒一下，在看涨期权期权交易量开始消退后，标准普尔在2020年9月抛售了-392个基点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>  <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>  <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>  <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>7月份，Option notional的平均交易量创下了每天+5500亿美元的历史纪录。交易量最大的3只股票（AAPL、AMZN和TSLA）的日交易量为300B美元。期权和股票的广度都很低。</li><li>“在4000份可交易的单一股票期权中，前3名占每日平均名义交易量的56%。加上接下来的7份，这一比例跃升至72%。”</li><li>“换句话说，前10名底层股票平均每天的名义交易量是底部3990点的3倍”</li><li>这是一个需要监控的重要动态。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>7.看涨期权期权续。</b></u>-零售业已从每周在GME和AMC上交易看涨期权期权（每天名义价值仅为6B美元）转向居家策略。每日期权交易量最高的公司也是指数权重最大的公司。除了ETF流量之外，散户看涨期权期权购买狂潮也导致了单一股票的街头空头每周伽马值。今天交易的75%的单一股票期权的到期时间为两周或更短。<b>换句话说，鉴于GS YOLO风险情绪篮子已经滚动，AAPL下一步是否需要赶上（或者至少看不到YOLO流量）。</b></blockquote></p><p> $181bln/day AMZN</p><p><blockquote>1810亿美元/天AMZN</blockquote></p><p> $ 82bln/day TSLA</p><p><blockquote>820亿美元/天TSLA</blockquote></p><p> $ 36bln/day AAPL</p><p><blockquote>360亿美元/天AAPL</blockquote></p><p> --------------</p><p><blockquote>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>TSLA/AMZN/AAPL总额：2990亿美元/天——如果大型科技股的看涨期权交易量下降会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>  <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>  <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>  <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>260亿美元/天NVDA</li><li>140亿美元/天GOOGL</li><li>110亿美元/天FB</li><li>100亿美元/天MSFT</li><li>80亿美元/天的商店</li><li>80亿美元/天GOOG</li><li>80亿美元/天NFLX</li><li>70亿美元/天阿里巴巴</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA总计：900亿美元/天</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>40亿美元/天AMC</li><li>20亿美元/天GME</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC/GME总额：60亿美元/天——没有莫约洛？见下图。</b></blockquote></p><p> All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p><p><blockquote>所有其他基础资产：1410亿美元/天</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>单一股票期权市场总额：</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>  <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>  <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li> </ul> --------------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2990亿美元/天TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li><li>900亿美元/天GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li><li>60亿美元/天AMC/GME</li><li>1410亿美元/天所有其他基础</li></ul>--------------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>$537bln/day Total</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5370亿美元/天总计</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>8.期权Gamma平仓</u></b>-期权到期刚刚下跌-85%的市场多头伽马。市场现在有能力更自由地波动，交易更少的多头伽马。上周的每一天，随着交易商重新对冲他们的伽马（逢低买入），市场都会在收盘时反弹。我担心没有伽马对冲和被动需求的夏季日终流动性。我认为还会有“机构”需求购买杰克逊霍尔对冲基金，消除多头伽马，让华尔街做空以对冲下行。本周我们看到的看跌期权和看跌价差比2021年任何一周都多。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>  <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>  <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>  <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>  <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li> </ul> <b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周三(7/14)SPX gamma=+$4,625 B</li><li>周四(7/15)SPX gamma=+$3,620 B</li><li>周五(7/16)SPX gamma=+$3,136 B</li><li>周一(7/19)SPX gamma=+$2,698 B</li><li>周二(7/20)SPX Gamma=+$713B。</li></ul><b>在过去的5天里，多头标普500伽马减少了-85%，交易商的多头伽马减少了。</b>这种动态改变了市场行为，尽管成交量走高，但我们几乎没有看到系统覆盖的需求。这是新的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>9.系统性</b></u>-非经济风险已经接近最大敞口，并且几乎没有进一步增加的空间。到目前为止，还没有触发阈值水平，但重要的是要注意缺乏从这里添加的能力，这不对称地扭曲了下行方向。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>  <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>  <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>CTA</b>-1年排名90%百分位数，3年排名84%百分位数。</li><li><b>GS型号</b>-下周将出售90亿美元的股票。CTA是处于上涨带、下跌带、下跌大带的卖家。这并不常见。检查未来1个月的下行大不对称。</li><li><b>GS短期CTA ES1翻转电平</b>=$4,257.90.我们昨天跳闸了这个断路器，但是今天上午更高。我预计GS卖出预期会增加。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>b)体积控制-1年等级为86%百分位数，3年等级为75%百分位数。仅供参考。SPX看跌期权/看涨期权比率昨日创下一年新高。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>c)风险平价-1年等级为100%百分位数，3年等级为53%百分位数。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>d)总系统性–1年等级为92%百分位数，3年等级为80%百分位数。这很重要。这种非情绪化的需求是最大的，卖家会更低。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>10.流动资金</b></u>-非官方的Rubner外出展望(OOO)回复表。我上周的笔记是“几周后见”或“去钓鱼”的办公室回扣最多的一周。即将到来的杰克逊霍尔日历很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>  <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>  <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>  <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>  <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li> </ol> *** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>接下来的几周，12个月来首次延长假期，等等，因为杰克逊霍尔提前了。</li><li>杰克逊霍尔，8月26日（星期四）-8月28日（星期六）-周五可能是关键的日历，但周六也可能很重要。这将对冲移至下周。</li><li>劳动节，9月6日（周一交换假期）-今年晚些时候</li><li>大约孩子开学第一天，9月7日（星期二）</li><li>流动性=八月夏季-ZZZZ。在昨天的抛售中，账面流动性大幅下降。</li></ol>***尽管在清单中排名第10。这实际上是图表#1。昨天屏幕上的流动性大幅枯竭。该图表上周一达到3600万美元的峰值，昨天达到1081万美元。这意味着螺丝流动性在一周内下降了2500万美元或约70%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>11.回购</b></u>：回购来了，但股权发行也来了，中和了回购冲动。当公司遇到公司时。来自销售和交易同事John Flood在他最近的交易笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> <i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“这是一场纸面派对，而且这张纸面越来越难放置。上周我们在美国对11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周我们已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月深处尤其值得注意。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>  <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上周股票发行量为62亿美元，而2000年以来7月份每周平均发行量为34亿美元。</li><li>上周有27笔股票交易进入市场，而自2000年以来7月份平均每周15笔交易。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>底线：</b></i><i>在八月份把战术资金流清单放在你的雷达上。8月份技术市场结构动态发生较大变化</i><i><b>.我认为会有下跌（-5%），应该在杰克逊霍尔后期买入。</b></i><i>人们的共识是呼吁股市进行更大规模的调整，考虑到系统中的资本数量，我认为这是不可能的。如果我们在卖家走低时触发关键水平下跌，我会改变我的语气。如果8月份的资金外流确实发生，我认为鉴于高度集中和最大的被动影响，科技股的表现不如周期性价值重新开放。</i><i><b>一旦我们在8月份看到第一次流出，这将是战术性空头的宏观触发器</b></i><i>.敬请关注，紧盯流动性。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEntering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 15:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p><p><blockquote>这与本月初的看涨情绪截然不同，当时该行首次正确地指出，S&amp;P正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，7月1日至15日期间公布了一系列新高（在16日和19日抛售之前）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p><p><blockquote>...在对为什么“空头必须回补”进行冗长的合理化解释之后，高盛最近几天出人意料地变得看跌，在高盛流量交易员约翰·弗洛德周一敦促高盛客户“不要逢低买入”两天后（剧透警告：他们做到了），他的交易部门同事斯科特·鲁布纳（Scott Rubner）发表了一份报告，预览了为什么他预计未来几天会出现调整，并将持续到8月底的杰克逊霍尔研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p><p><blockquote>我们在下面摘录他的报告，其中包含高盛8月份“修正”论点背后的关键论点，包括战术性资金流动、卖家加速以及GS股票交易大厅的反馈。</blockquote></p><p> So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p><p><blockquote>所以事不宜迟，下面是鲁布纳，他展示了他的“<b><i>8月份修正的11点清单”</i></b>，首先注意到“<i>过去48小时内我收件箱/IB中出现的第一个问题。当资金外流且购买需求放缓时，股市会发生什么？</i>正如我们在下面读到的，最合适的答案是“没什么好的。”</blockquote></p><p>   <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i>   <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>  <u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p><p><blockquote><i>11点清单-一致的客户反馈，以快速降低股票风险，从而降低杰克逊霍尔的潜在购买需求。共识反馈似乎要求修正-5%，实际上达到了-4%。这是本周即将进入你收件箱的话题的回顾。我认为今天早上的反弹会随着当天早些时候买票的完成而消退。</i><i><b>“逢高卖出”是与逢低买入的新动态。</b></i><u><b>1.季节性疲软</b></u>——自1928年以来，我们刚刚结束了一年中最好的两周时期。周五期权到期结束了一年中最好的季节性时期。<b>八月季节性对市场不利，整个八月呈下降趋势，为一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期</b>.今天你在这里，杰克逊霍尔是这张图表的低点。自1950年以来，72年来，S&amp;P指数有19次在上半年上涨至少超过10%。在强劲的1H之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降-51个基点，然后反弹走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>2.年度最大流出量</b></u>-投资者在7月份向市场分配资金，我们已经看到了这些创纪录的资金流入。这是今年股市最大的动态。资金流入继续以创纪录的速度增长，2021年年流入量为1.2万亿美元。401k资金主要流入S&amp;P和NDX，而不是ROW。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.8月份预测流量的逆转</b></u>——8月份股权流入并不常见。在过去的30年里，<b>八月通常是一年中最大的资金流出</b>.-15个基点的资产管理规模通常会在8月份离开股市基金，我们模拟价值约22万亿美元的股票待售。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>4.流出续。</u></b>需要明确的是，-330亿美元在调整市值后并不是一个重要的数字，但更重要的是它不是流入。鉴于资金流入抬高了最大和最大市值指数权重，该指数水平仍保持在ATHs。周一，我们看到一个巨大的MOC失衡出售，这是不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>5.被动流动推动最大市值</b></u>-仅在今年上半年，被动型ETF就创下了有记录以来最好的全年资金流入。(+500b)。我每天都看录像带记录大量的MOC失衡在美国东部时间下午3:50购买，<b>但是如果这种动力消失了呢？</b>请记住，流入SPDR标普500指数ETF的1美元将流入前5名公司0.23美分，流入QQQ的1美元将流入前5名公司0.41美分。如果流入转为流出，您将不再看到广泛的指数动态。<b>那么投资者需要决定哪个板块成为流出的资金来源。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p><p><blockquote>这对标普500有多重要？重要的！</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>  <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>  <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>  <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>全球股票：1年期：+600B美元被动（入）与0.0 B美元主动（出）=&gt;600B美元。</li><li>全球股票：5年期：+$2.30 T被动（入）vs.-$1.90 T主动（出）=&gt;$4.2 T</li><li>全球股票：10年期：+$4T被动（入）vs.-$3.0 T主动（出）=&gt;$7.0 T</li><li>当前全球股票主动资产管理规模为10.099吨，超过当前全球股票被动资产管理规模7.225吨。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>旁注：ETF占名义执行量的36%，为2020年3月/4月以来的最后水平。（年初至今平均值）=24%。你看到SQQQ周一的巨量（3倍空头QQQ）了吗？</i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>六、单一股票评级</b></u>-这是非常类似于2020年7月和8月看涨期权期权交易的结果吹顶。提醒一下，在看涨期权期权交易量开始消退后，标准普尔在2020年9月抛售了-392个基点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>  <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>  <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>  <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>7月份，Option notional的平均交易量创下了每天+5500亿美元的历史纪录。交易量最大的3只股票（AAPL、AMZN和TSLA）的日交易量为300B美元。期权和股票的广度都很低。</li><li>“在4000份可交易的单一股票期权中，前3名占每日平均名义交易量的56%。加上接下来的7份，这一比例跃升至72%。”</li><li>“换句话说，前10名底层股票平均每天的名义交易量是底部3990点的3倍”</li><li>这是一个需要监控的重要动态。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>7.看涨期权期权续。</b></u>-零售业已从每周在GME和AMC上交易看涨期权期权（每天名义价值仅为6B美元）转向居家策略。每日期权交易量最高的公司也是指数权重最大的公司。除了ETF流量之外，散户看涨期权期权购买狂潮也导致了单一股票的街头空头每周伽马值。今天交易的75%的单一股票期权的到期时间为两周或更短。<b>换句话说，鉴于GS YOLO风险情绪篮子已经滚动，AAPL下一步是否需要赶上（或者至少看不到YOLO流量）。</b></blockquote></p><p> $181bln/day AMZN</p><p><blockquote>1810亿美元/天AMZN</blockquote></p><p> $ 82bln/day TSLA</p><p><blockquote>820亿美元/天TSLA</blockquote></p><p> $ 36bln/day AAPL</p><p><blockquote>360亿美元/天AAPL</blockquote></p><p> --------------</p><p><blockquote>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>TSLA/AMZN/AAPL总额：2990亿美元/天——如果大型科技股的看涨期权交易量下降会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>  <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>  <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>  <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>260亿美元/天NVDA</li><li>140亿美元/天GOOGL</li><li>110亿美元/天FB</li><li>100亿美元/天MSFT</li><li>80亿美元/天的商店</li><li>80亿美元/天GOOG</li><li>80亿美元/天NFLX</li><li>70亿美元/天阿里巴巴</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA总计：900亿美元/天</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>40亿美元/天AMC</li><li>20亿美元/天GME</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC/GME总额：60亿美元/天——没有莫约洛？见下图。</b></blockquote></p><p> All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p><p><blockquote>所有其他基础资产：1410亿美元/天</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>单一股票期权市场总额：</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>  <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>  <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li> </ul> --------------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2990亿美元/天TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li><li>900亿美元/天GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li><li>60亿美元/天AMC/GME</li><li>1410亿美元/天所有其他基础</li></ul>--------------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>$537bln/day Total</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5370亿美元/天总计</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>8.期权Gamma平仓</u></b>-期权到期刚刚下跌-85%的市场多头伽马。市场现在有能力更自由地波动，交易更少的多头伽马。上周的每一天，随着交易商重新对冲他们的伽马（逢低买入），市场都会在收盘时反弹。我担心没有伽马对冲和被动需求的夏季日终流动性。我认为还会有“机构”需求购买杰克逊霍尔对冲基金，消除多头伽马，让华尔街做空以对冲下行。本周我们看到的看跌期权和看跌价差比2021年任何一周都多。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>  <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>  <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>  <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>  <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li> </ul> <b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周三(7/14)SPX gamma=+$4,625 B</li><li>周四(7/15)SPX gamma=+$3,620 B</li><li>周五(7/16)SPX gamma=+$3,136 B</li><li>周一(7/19)SPX gamma=+$2,698 B</li><li>周二(7/20)SPX Gamma=+$713B。</li></ul><b>在过去的5天里，多头标普500伽马减少了-85%，交易商的多头伽马减少了。</b>这种动态改变了市场行为，尽管成交量走高，但我们几乎没有看到系统覆盖的需求。这是新的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>9.系统性</b></u>-非经济风险已经接近最大敞口，并且几乎没有进一步增加的空间。到目前为止，还没有触发阈值水平，但重要的是要注意缺乏从这里添加的能力，这不对称地扭曲了下行方向。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>  <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>  <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>CTA</b>-1年排名90%百分位数，3年排名84%百分位数。</li><li><b>GS型号</b>-下周将出售90亿美元的股票。CTA是处于上涨带、下跌带、下跌大带的卖家。这并不常见。检查未来1个月的下行大不对称。</li><li><b>GS短期CTA ES1翻转电平</b>=$4,257.90.我们昨天跳闸了这个断路器，但是今天上午更高。我预计GS卖出预期会增加。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>b)体积控制-1年等级为86%百分位数，3年等级为75%百分位数。仅供参考。SPX看跌期权/看涨期权比率昨日创下一年新高。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>c)风险平价-1年等级为100%百分位数，3年等级为53%百分位数。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>d)总系统性–1年等级为92%百分位数，3年等级为80%百分位数。这很重要。这种非情绪化的需求是最大的，卖家会更低。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>10.流动资金</b></u>-非官方的Rubner外出展望(OOO)回复表。我上周的笔记是“几周后见”或“去钓鱼”的办公室回扣最多的一周。即将到来的杰克逊霍尔日历很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>  <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>  <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>  <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>  <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li> </ol> *** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>接下来的几周，12个月来首次延长假期，等等，因为杰克逊霍尔提前了。</li><li>杰克逊霍尔，8月26日（星期四）-8月28日（星期六）-周五可能是关键的日历，但周六也可能很重要。这将对冲移至下周。</li><li>劳动节，9月6日（周一交换假期）-今年晚些时候</li><li>大约孩子开学第一天，9月7日（星期二）</li><li>流动性=八月夏季-ZZZZ。在昨天的抛售中，账面流动性大幅下降。</li></ol>***尽管在清单中排名第10。这实际上是图表#1。昨天屏幕上的流动性大幅枯竭。该图表上周一达到3600万美元的峰值，昨天达到1081万美元。这意味着螺丝流动性在一周内下降了2500万美元或约70%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>11.回购</b></u>：回购来了，但股权发行也来了，中和了回购冲动。当公司遇到公司时。来自销售和交易同事John Flood在他最近的交易笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> <i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“这是一场纸面派对，而且这张纸面越来越难放置。上周我们在美国对11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周我们已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月深处尤其值得注意。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>  <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上周股票发行量为62亿美元，而2000年以来7月份每周平均发行量为34亿美元。</li><li>上周有27笔股票交易进入市场，而自2000年以来7月份平均每周15笔交易。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>底线：</b></i><i>在八月份把战术资金流清单放在你的雷达上。8月份技术市场结构动态发生较大变化</i><i><b>.我认为会有下跌（-5%），应该在杰克逊霍尔后期买入。</b></i><i>人们的共识是呼吁股市进行更大规模的调整，考虑到系统中的资本数量，我认为这是不可能的。如果我们在卖家走低时触发关键水平下跌，我会改变我的语气。如果8月份的资金外流确实发生，我认为鉴于高度集中和最大的被动影响，科技股的表现不如周期性价值重新开放。</i><i><b>一旦我们在8月份看到第一次流出，这将是战术性空头的宏观触发器</b></i><i>.敬请关注，紧盯流动性。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192458370","content_text":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...\n\n... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.\nHis note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.\nSo without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"11 point checklist for an August correction\", starting by noting that \"the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"\n\n11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.\n“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.\n\n1. Weak Seasonals- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&P is up at least >10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.\n\n2. Largest outflows of the year- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&P and NDX rather than ROW.\n\n3. Reversal of flows predicted for August- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,August typically sees the largest outflows of the year. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.\n\n4. Outflows cont.To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.\n\n5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,but what if this dynamic fades.Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.\nJust how important has this been for the S&P 500? Important!\n\nGlobal Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = >$600B.\nGlobal Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = >$4.2T\nGlobal Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = >$7.0T\nCurrent Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds > Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.\n\n\nSide note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?\n6. Single Stock Calls- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.\n\nOption notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.\n\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"\n\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”\nThis is an important dynamic to monitor.\n\n\n7. Call Options cont.- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).\n$181bln/day AMZN\n$ 82bln/day TSLA\n$ 36bln/day AAPL\n--------------\nTOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day  ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?\n\n$ 26bln/day NVDA\n$ 14bln/day GOOGL\n$ 11bln/day FB\n$ 10bln/day MSFT\n$  8bln/day SHOP\n$  8bln/day GOOG\n$  8bln/day NFLX\n$  7bln/day BABA\n\n--------------\nTOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day\n\n$  4bln/day AMC\n$  2bln/day GME\n\n--------------\nTOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day  ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.\nAll other underlyings: $141bln/day\nTotal single stock option market:\n\n$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL\n$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA\n$  6bln/day AMC/GME\n$141bln/day All other underlyings\n\n--------------------\n$537bln/day Total\n\n8. Option Gamma Unwinds- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.\n\nWednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B\nThursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B\nFriday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B\nMonday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B\nTuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.\n\nthe Long S&P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.\n\n9. Systematic- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.\n\nCTA- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.\nGS models-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.\nGS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.\n\n\nb) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.\n\nc) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.\n\nd) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.\n\n10. Liquidity- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.\n\nnext few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.\nJackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.\nLabor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year\napproximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)\nLiquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.\n\n*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.\n\n11. Buybacks: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.\n“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“\n\nLast week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.\nLast week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.\n\n\nBottom Line:Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356827649,"gmtCreate":1616769123181,"gmtModify":1634524084029,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why they are trying keep going out such article to do propaganda content to brain wash people.. Retailor Investor just like the stock... It can worth how much as they want it to be damn&nbsp;","listText":"Why they are trying keep going out such article to do propaganda content to brain wash people.. Retailor Investor just like the stock... It can worth how much as they want it to be damn&nbsp;","text":"Why they are trying keep going out such article to do propaganda content to brain wash people.. Retailor Investor just like the stock... It can worth how much as they want it to be damn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356827649","repostId":"2122230447","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575141057639271","authorId":"3575141057639271","name":"Daveb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61df162e1597f1b5a6a6bfb13d7d92f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575141057639271","idStr":"3575141057639271"},"content":"Simply because their dishonesty re synthetic shares that dont exist is going to cost them $Billions and likely bankrupt several of them. We have caught them out. Apes MUST hold...","text":"Simply because their dishonesty re synthetic shares that dont exist is going to cost them $Billions and likely bankrupt several of them. We have caught them out. Apes MUST hold...","html":"Simply because their dishonesty re synthetic shares that dont exist is going to cost them $Billions and likely bankrupt several of them. We have caught them out. Apes MUST hold..."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164048064,"gmtCreate":1624162782958,"gmtModify":1631892187997,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Might as well say meme stock&nbsp; loke amc or gme&nbsp;or good stock like apple stock all cannot make it... Why like to write such article..","listText":"Might as well say meme stock&nbsp; loke amc or gme&nbsp;or good stock like apple stock all cannot make it... Why like to write such article..","text":"Might as well say meme stock loke amc or gme or good stock like apple stock all cannot make it... Why like to write such article..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164048064","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169680280,"gmtCreate":1623832701940,"gmtModify":1634027401006,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169680280","repostId":"2143605967","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170430921,"gmtCreate":1626444940263,"gmtModify":1631890345236,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fake news haahaha rubbish again we buy an&nbsp;hold&nbsp;","listText":"Fake news haahaha rubbish again we buy an&nbsp;hold&nbsp;","text":"Fake news haahaha rubbish again we buy an hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170430921","repostId":"2151450981","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141194850,"gmtCreate":1625841265470,"gmtModify":1631892187940,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol they under estimate retailor Investor hahaha we buy and hold and hedge fund bleed to death and stock 🚀 hhahaha","listText":"Lol they under estimate retailor Investor hahaha we buy and hold and hedge fund bleed to death and stock 🚀 hhahaha","text":"Lol they under estimate retailor Investor hahaha we buy and hold and hedge fund bleed to death and stock 🚀 hhahaha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141194850","repostId":"1173374462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173374462","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625840008,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173374462?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 22:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stocks Like GameStop and AMC Reflect Market Reality<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC等模因股票反映了市场现实</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173374462","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Gamestop (GME) made some investors rich… and then it broke many more. Investing in AMC Entertainment","content":"<p>Gamestop&nbsp;(<b>GME</b>)&nbsp;made some investors rich… and then it broke many more. Investing in AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>)&nbsp;did the exact same thing. These two stocks represent, if not failing businesses, at least ailing ones; companies that struggled to keep up with the new economy even before the pandemic shut down large swaths of it. Yet over the past few months they have posted some of the most volatile gains and losses on the market.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站(<b>GME</b>）让一些投资者变得富有……然后又破产了更多。投资AMC院线（<b>AMC</b>）做了完全相同的事情。这两只股票即使不是失败的企业，也至少代表了陷入困境的企业；甚至在大流行之前就努力跟上新经济的公司就关闭了大部分新经济。然而，在过去的几个月里，他们公布了市场上一些最不稳定的收益和损失。</blockquote></p><p> How?</p><p><blockquote>如何？</blockquote></p><p> It’s down to what Real Money's Timothy Collins calls the market of “meme stock hyperbole.” But, he writes, is it really all that different from how trading has always worked?</p><p><blockquote>这取决于Real Money的Timothy Collins评级市场的“模因股票夸张”。但是，他写道，这真的与交易一直以来的运作方式有那么大的不同吗？</blockquote></p><p> Have you ever really thought about the phrases 'to the moon' or 'conviction buy,' and how they mess with out perception of fair value?</p><p><blockquote>您是否真正想过“登月”或“信念购买”这两个短语，以及它们如何扰乱我们对公允价值的看法？</blockquote></p><p> \"Initially, I rolled my eyes at the continued use of the phrase 'To The Moon,'\" Collins says. \"It's not like 'Strong Buy with a price target of $65', for instance. 'To the moon' is completely arbitrary and open to interpretation, but then again so are most things about valuation, when you think about it,\" Collins wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“最初，我对继续使用‘去月球’这个词翻了个白眼，”柯林斯说。“例如，这不像‘强力买入，目标价为65美元’。‘登月’完全是任意的，可以进行解释，但话又说回来，当你仔细想想时，大多数关于估值的事情也是如此，”柯林斯写道。</blockquote></p><p> \"For instance, when an analyst pounds the table on a stock, how is that different from 'to the moon?' Or when someone says, 'all in.' Are they really all in? Did they cash in all their assets, pool the liquidity, and buy every share they possibly could? Probably not. Actually, I'd say definitely not 99.9999% of the time. Of course, there's always that one person,\" Collins said.</p><p><blockquote>“例如，当分析师在一只股票上敲打桌子时，这与‘飞向月球’有什么不同？或者当有人说‘全押’时。他们真的全押了吗？他们是否兑现了所有资产，汇集了流动性，并尽可能地购买了每一股？可能不会。事实上，我会说绝对不是99.9999%的情况。当然，总有那么一个人，”柯林斯说。</blockquote></p><p> \"But the point isWall Street has been arbitraryfor years. We can't even have a standard rating system. Is it 'Neutral' or 'Hold?' And really, do I want to hold something that is only in the middle of your range? No.\"</p><p><blockquote>“但关键是，华尔街多年来一直是武断的。我们甚至不能有一个标准的评级系统。它是‘中性’还是‘持有’？说真的，我想持有只在你的范围中间的东西吗？不。”</blockquote></p><p> Collins writes, \"The system should be 'buy' or 'sell.' That's it. Black or white. Own or don't own.\"</p><p><blockquote>柯林斯写道，“系统应该是‘买入’或‘卖出’。就是这样。黑或白。拥有或不拥有。”</blockquote></p><p> Assets like GameStop and even cryptocurrency seem to be selling on nothing more than pure emotion. Investors are taking these products for a joy ride, and that tends to send prices flying up and down the ladder.</p><p><blockquote>像游戏驿站甚至加密货币这样的资产似乎只不过是纯粹的情绪在出售。投资者正在享受这些产品，这往往会导致价格飞涨。</blockquote></p><p> That’s confusing, to be sure. Just, before you go throwing your hands in the air, it’s important to remember that the stock market has always been at least a little bit arbitrary.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这很令人困惑。只是，在你举手之前，重要的是要记住股票市场总是至少有一点武断。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stocks Like GameStop and AMC Reflect Market Reality<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC等模因股票反映了市场现实</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stocks Like GameStop and AMC Reflect Market Reality<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC等模因股票反映了市场现实</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-09 22:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Gamestop&nbsp;(<b>GME</b>)&nbsp;made some investors rich… and then it broke many more. Investing in AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>)&nbsp;did the exact same thing. These two stocks represent, if not failing businesses, at least ailing ones; companies that struggled to keep up with the new economy even before the pandemic shut down large swaths of it. Yet over the past few months they have posted some of the most volatile gains and losses on the market.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站(<b>GME</b>）让一些投资者变得富有……然后又破产了更多。投资AMC院线（<b>AMC</b>）做了完全相同的事情。这两只股票即使不是失败的企业，也至少代表了陷入困境的企业；甚至在大流行之前就努力跟上新经济的公司就关闭了大部分新经济。然而，在过去的几个月里，他们公布了市场上一些最不稳定的收益和损失。</blockquote></p><p> How?</p><p><blockquote>如何？</blockquote></p><p> It’s down to what Real Money's Timothy Collins calls the market of “meme stock hyperbole.” But, he writes, is it really all that different from how trading has always worked?</p><p><blockquote>这取决于Real Money的Timothy Collins评级市场的“模因股票夸张”。但是，他写道，这真的与交易一直以来的运作方式有那么大的不同吗？</blockquote></p><p> Have you ever really thought about the phrases 'to the moon' or 'conviction buy,' and how they mess with out perception of fair value?</p><p><blockquote>您是否真正想过“登月”或“信念购买”这两个短语，以及它们如何扰乱我们对公允价值的看法？</blockquote></p><p> \"Initially, I rolled my eyes at the continued use of the phrase 'To The Moon,'\" Collins says. \"It's not like 'Strong Buy with a price target of $65', for instance. 'To the moon' is completely arbitrary and open to interpretation, but then again so are most things about valuation, when you think about it,\" Collins wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“最初，我对继续使用‘去月球’这个词翻了个白眼，”柯林斯说。“例如，这不像‘强力买入，目标价为65美元’。‘登月’完全是任意的，可以进行解释，但话又说回来，当你仔细想想时，大多数关于估值的事情也是如此，”柯林斯写道。</blockquote></p><p> \"For instance, when an analyst pounds the table on a stock, how is that different from 'to the moon?' Or when someone says, 'all in.' Are they really all in? Did they cash in all their assets, pool the liquidity, and buy every share they possibly could? Probably not. Actually, I'd say definitely not 99.9999% of the time. Of course, there's always that one person,\" Collins said.</p><p><blockquote>“例如，当分析师在一只股票上敲打桌子时，这与‘飞向月球’有什么不同？或者当有人说‘全押’时。他们真的全押了吗？他们是否兑现了所有资产，汇集了流动性，并尽可能地购买了每一股？可能不会。事实上，我会说绝对不是99.9999%的情况。当然，总有那么一个人，”柯林斯说。</blockquote></p><p> \"But the point isWall Street has been arbitraryfor years. We can't even have a standard rating system. Is it 'Neutral' or 'Hold?' And really, do I want to hold something that is only in the middle of your range? No.\"</p><p><blockquote>“但关键是，华尔街多年来一直是武断的。我们甚至不能有一个标准的评级系统。它是‘中性’还是‘持有’？说真的，我想持有只在你的范围中间的东西吗？不。”</blockquote></p><p> Collins writes, \"The system should be 'buy' or 'sell.' That's it. Black or white. Own or don't own.\"</p><p><blockquote>柯林斯写道，“系统应该是‘买入’或‘卖出’。就是这样。黑或白。拥有或不拥有。”</blockquote></p><p> Assets like GameStop and even cryptocurrency seem to be selling on nothing more than pure emotion. Investors are taking these products for a joy ride, and that tends to send prices flying up and down the ladder.</p><p><blockquote>像游戏驿站甚至加密货币这样的资产似乎只不过是纯粹的情绪在出售。投资者正在享受这些产品，这往往会导致价格飞涨。</blockquote></p><p> That’s confusing, to be sure. Just, before you go throwing your hands in the air, it’s important to remember that the stock market has always been at least a little bit arbitrary.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这很令人困惑。只是，在你举手之前，重要的是要记住股票市场总是至少有一点武断。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/meme-stocks-like-gamestop-amc-reflect-market-reality\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/meme-stocks-like-gamestop-amc-reflect-market-reality","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173374462","content_text":"Gamestop (GME) made some investors rich… and then it broke many more. Investing in AMC Entertainment (AMC) did the exact same thing. These two stocks represent, if not failing businesses, at least ailing ones; companies that struggled to keep up with the new economy even before the pandemic shut down large swaths of it. Yet over the past few months they have posted some of the most volatile gains and losses on the market.\nHow?\nIt’s down to what Real Money's Timothy Collins calls the market of “meme stock hyperbole.” But, he writes, is it really all that different from how trading has always worked?\nHave you ever really thought about the phrases 'to the moon' or 'conviction buy,' and how they mess with out perception of fair value?\n\"Initially, I rolled my eyes at the continued use of the phrase 'To The Moon,'\" Collins says. \"It's not like 'Strong Buy with a price target of $65', for instance. 'To the moon' is completely arbitrary and open to interpretation, but then again so are most things about valuation, when you think about it,\" Collins wrote.\n\"For instance, when an analyst pounds the table on a stock, how is that different from 'to the moon?' Or when someone says, 'all in.' Are they really all in? Did they cash in all their assets, pool the liquidity, and buy every share they possibly could? Probably not. Actually, I'd say definitely not 99.9999% of the time. Of course, there's always that one person,\" Collins said.\n\"But the point isWall Street has been arbitraryfor years. We can't even have a standard rating system. Is it 'Neutral' or 'Hold?' And really, do I want to hold something that is only in the middle of your range? No.\"\nCollins writes, \"The system should be 'buy' or 'sell.' That's it. Black or white. Own or don't own.\"\nAssets like GameStop and even cryptocurrency seem to be selling on nothing more than pure emotion. Investors are taking these products for a joy ride, and that tends to send prices flying up and down the ladder.\nThat’s confusing, to be sure. Just, before you go throwing your hands in the air, it’s important to remember that the stock market has always been at least a little bit arbitrary.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187124635,"gmtCreate":1623747443727,"gmtModify":1634029192518,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187124635","repostId":"1122638224","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}