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Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>
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","listText":"Inflation ","text":"Inflation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631101430","repostId":"1173531022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173531022","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1644499821,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173531022?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-10 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation Rises 7.5% over the past Year, the Highest since 1982<blockquote>过去一年通货膨胀率上升7.5%，为1982年以来最高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173531022","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Consumer prices in January surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Consumer prices in January surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening outlook for inflation and cementing the likelihood of substantial interest rate hikes this year.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>过去12个月，1月份消费者价格飙升超过预期，表明通胀前景恶化，并巩固了今年大幅加息的可能性。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>The consumer price index, which measures the costs of dozens of everyday consumer goods, rose 7.5% compared to a year ago, the Labor Department reported Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周四报告称，衡量数十种日常消费品成本的消费者价格指数较去年同期上涨7.5%。</blockquote></p><p>That compared to Dow Jones estimates of 7.2% for the closely watched inflation gauge. It was the highest reading since February 1982.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，道琼斯对备受关注的通胀指标的估计为7.2%。这是自1982年2月以来的最高读数。</blockquote></p><p>Stripping out volatile gas and grocery costs, the CPI increased 6%, compared to the estimate of 5.9%.</p><p><blockquote>剔除挥发性天然气和食品杂货成本，CPI上涨6%，而预期为5.9%。</blockquote></p><p>The monthly rates also came in hotter than expected, with headline and core CPI both rising 0.6%, compared to the estimates for a 0.4% increase on both measures.</p><p><blockquote>月度利率也高于预期，总体CPI和核心CPI均上涨0.6%，而这两项指标的预期均上涨0.4%。</blockquote></p><p>Core inflation rose at its fastest level since August 1982.</p><p><blockquote>核心通胀升至1982年8月以来最快水平。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Rises 7.5% over the past Year, the Highest since 1982<blockquote>过去一年通货膨胀率上升7.5%，为1982年以来最高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Rises 7.5% over the past Year, the Highest since 1982<blockquote>过去一年通货膨胀率上升7.5%，为1982年以来最高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-10 21:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Consumer prices in January surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening outlook for inflation and cementing the likelihood of substantial interest rate hikes this year.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>过去12个月，1月份消费者价格飙升超过预期，表明通胀前景恶化，并巩固了今年大幅加息的可能性。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>The consumer price index, which measures the costs of dozens of everyday consumer goods, rose 7.5% compared to a year ago, the Labor Department reported Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周四报告称，衡量数十种日常消费品成本的消费者价格指数较去年同期上涨7.5%。</blockquote></p><p>That compared to Dow Jones estimates of 7.2% for the closely watched inflation gauge. It was the highest reading since February 1982.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，道琼斯对备受关注的通胀指标的估计为7.2%。这是自1982年2月以来的最高读数。</blockquote></p><p>Stripping out volatile gas and grocery costs, the CPI increased 6%, compared to the estimate of 5.9%.</p><p><blockquote>剔除挥发性天然气和食品杂货成本，CPI上涨6%，而预期为5.9%。</blockquote></p><p>The monthly rates also came in hotter than expected, with headline and core CPI both rising 0.6%, compared to the estimates for a 0.4% increase on both measures.</p><p><blockquote>月度利率也高于预期，总体CPI和核心CPI均上涨0.6%，而这两项指标的预期均上涨0.4%。</blockquote></p><p>Core inflation rose at its fastest level since August 1982.</p><p><blockquote>核心通胀升至1982年8月以来最快水平。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173531022","content_text":"Consumer prices in January surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening outlook for inflation and cementing the likelihood of substantial interest rate hikes this year.The consumer price index, which measures the costs of dozens of everyday consumer goods, rose 7.5% compared to a year ago, the Labor Department reported Thursday.That compared to Dow Jones estimates of 7.2% for the closely watched inflation gauge. It was the highest reading since February 1982.Stripping out volatile gas and grocery costs, the CPI increased 6%, compared to the estimate of 5.9%.The monthly rates also came in hotter than expected, with headline and core CPI both rising 0.6%, compared to the estimates for a 0.4% increase on both measures.Core inflation rose at its fastest level since August 1982.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633746630,"gmtCreate":1644363144623,"gmtModify":1644363144805,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zoom","listText":"Zoom","text":"Zoom","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633746630","repostId":"2209583985","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633289792,"gmtCreate":1644125903943,"gmtModify":1644125904110,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633289792","repostId":"1105432695","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633201726,"gmtCreate":1644064783506,"gmtModify":1644064783607,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pltr","listText":"Pltr","text":"Pltr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633201726","repostId":"1196927717","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196927717","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644033090,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196927717?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-05 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir：危险信号还是机遇？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196927717","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至2021年第三季度，Palantir总共只有203名客户，而其中只有20名客户占总收入的58%。</li><li>与2020年相比，2021年前三季度Palantir核心客户群的年化收入增长放缓至20%。</li><li>2021年，Palantir从根本上改变了其上市战略。该公司目前正在利用其现金积极投资同意购买Palantir软件的其他公司（被投资方）。</li><li>管理层继续指导到十年中期销售额增长30%。然而，Palantir的三阶段业务模式暗示，不包括其被投资方的销售额，销售额呈下降趋势。</li><li>Palantir提供了非凡的长期增长潜力，这应该使其成为所有成长型投资者的观察名单。投资案例建立在机会和危险信号之间的支点上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>agawa288/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>我给予Palantir（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）中性风险/回报评级，因为长期增长机会被近期危险信号所抵消。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，一些值得注意的危险信号值得谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升（误差幅度有限）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险/回报评级：中性</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><blockquote>与企业软件领域的同行相比，Palantir在获取和扩大客户群方面拥有不同寻常的商业模式。该公司根据三个发展阶段或群体对其客户进行分类：(1)收购、(2)扩张和(3)规模。虽然它们是适用于所有企业的通用术语，但由于该公司对待客户的方式，它们在Palantir的情况下是独一无二的。</blockquote></p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户详细信息</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir将收购群体中的客户定义为截至年底收入低于100,000美元且对Palantir无利可图的客户。扩展群组的特点是一个销售额超过100,000美元但仍未盈利的客户。最后，规模群体被定义为在这一年中为Palantir创造了超过100,000美元收入且具有盈利关系的客户。</blockquote></p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p><blockquote>下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。第一个表显示了Palantir在2020年底分类的每个客户群体的2020年销售额（2020年收入）。在2021年年化栏中，您会发现这些2020年客户群到2021年第三季度的年化销售额。在第二组表格中，我汇编了过去12个月Palantir最大客户的关键详细信息，以及与2021年Palantir新客户相关的关键详细信息，这些客户尚未分配到某个群组。队列分类在每年年底进行。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p><blockquote>为了便于比较，我对相关信息进行了颜色编码。Palantir的主要现实之一是其集中的客户群，以蓝色突出显示。Palantir只有203个客户，前20名占销售额的58%。</blockquote></p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义，Palantir最大的客户属于规模群体。到2021年前三季度，规模队列（2020年底分类）以20%的年化速度增长。鉴于该群体占Palantir收入的86%，如果没有其他两个群体的爆炸性增长或规模群体的实质性加速，将销售增长率大幅提高到20%以上将具有挑战性。应该指出的是，管理层指导到十年中期年销售额增长30%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p><blockquote>上表中以黄色突出显示了2020年底收购和扩展队列。在年终Palantir报告发布之前，2021年的新客户不会被分配到一个队列中。我用黄色突出显示了相关的2021年新客户数据，以便于与2020年获取和扩展客户群体进行比较。我认为2021年新客户销售业绩（不包括对被投资方的销售）是可持续的核心增长率。被投资方的客户获取策略非常不寻常，具有极高的资本风险，从而引入声誉风险，从而引入品牌风险。</blockquote></p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，这里的被投资方是指Palantir使用Palantir的软件购买其股票以换取被投资方的客户。这意味着，来自被投资方的收入是Palantir投资这些客户股票的回报。在这方面，这些不是公平交易。我认为，不包括对被投资方的销售的新客户数量是确定纯粹基于市场的新客户增长率的重要数据点。</blockquote></p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>与2021年规模群体的年化增长率20%类似，到2021年第三季度，新客户销售额的年化增长率为22%，而2020年收购和扩张群体的销售额为2060万美元。虽然这不是新客户销售增长的完美比较，但这是一个公平的估计。因此，Palantir的基本销售增长率似乎倾向于接近20%，而不是该公司到十年中期30%的销售增长指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p><blockquote><b>被投资方</b></blockquote></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p><blockquote>退一步回顾Palantir对被投资方的投资非常重要，因为这是一种非常不寻常的获取客户的上市策略。上述数字表明收入增长趋势为20%，这让Palantir使用资产负债表现金为新客户提供资金的方式有了新的认识。下表摘自Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q。第一个表格列出了截至2021年第三季度末Palantir资助的公司。第二个表格显示了Palantir对尚未获得资金的新公司的投资承诺。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>我对上述每家公司都进行了粗略的回顾。共同的主题是，它们都是最受欢迎的成长板块中的早期公司。这些行业包括电动汽车、机器人、飞行电动汽车、卫星服务和药物发现。似乎没有一家被投资方本身能够提供足够的升值潜力来大幅提高Palantir的估值。Palantir的持股比例为0.4%至1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚每家公司有多少资金可以用于Palantir的软件。此外，目前尚不清楚这些公司截至2021年第三季度的1900万美元收入是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>我在blue中强调了Palantir对这七家公司的总投资为1.5亿美元。黄色突出显示的单元格代表投资的当前估值。Palantir目前仅在这七家公司上就下跌了约6400万美元。这凸显了这种客户获取方法的极端风险，因为迄今为止的资本损失使产生的收入相形见绌。上面没有列出其他私营公司的投资，但是，Palantir没有透露细节。它们包含在Palantir资产负债表上的其他资产中，截至2021年第三季度，该资产总额为1.16亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了Palantir截至2021年第三季度投资新公司的承诺。我用黄色突出显示了Palantir在2021年第三季度末后资助的两家公司。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><blockquote>我用蓝色突出显示了截至2021年第三季度新投资的总资金承诺。这是在第三季度末之前完成的1.5亿美元的基础上完成的2.52亿美元。虽然我没有研究过这些特定的公司，但它们似乎与上面回顾的前七项投资相似。这意味着，它们似乎承担着极大的资本风险，但与Palantir软件业务固有的估值上涨空间相比，上涨潜力可能很小。需要注意的是，近期估值极端，继续快速收缩。因此，在VC/IPO周期的顶部进行投资也会增加资本损失的时间风险。</blockquote></p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p><blockquote>谈到Palantir最近的表现，我选择将销售增长视为不包括被投资方，因为这是最有可能的可持续增长轨迹。下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。我通过去除被投资方的收入进行了调整，以得出净收入数字。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><blockquote>我用黄色突出显示了扣除被投资方收入后2021年第三季度29%的收入增长。被投资公司第三季度增长了6.5%。年初至今，被投资方收入占收入增长1.7%。29%的增长率已经低于该公司到十年中期30%的增长指导。请记住，随着Palantir投资承诺的额外资金，被投资方的收入流将会增长。无论如何，第三季度的增长率迅速放缓至29%，而不包括这些非公平销售，今年迄今的增长率为41%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Geographic & Segment Sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>地理和细分市场销售</b></blockquote></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p><blockquote>销售放缓是由法国主导的，2021年前三个季度收缩了22%（下面用橙色突出显示）。应该指出的是，Palantir与空客和航空业有着重要的关系。对于一个重要的客户和行业来说，这可能是一个负面的解读。虽然美国在2021年第三季度仍然是表现最好的国家，但正如下面蓝色突出显示的单元格所证明的那样，增长正在迅速放缓。该表根据Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告编制。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p><blockquote>除法国外，世界其他地区也在迅速放缓，从今年前9个月的45%降至2021年第三季度的20%。请注意，这些是未经任何调整的报告销售额。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的，强调第三季度销售大幅放缓发生在政府部门。请记住，被投资方收入包含在下图中，并为商业部门第三季度增长率增加了约6.5%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，商业部门的收入增长相当稳定，不包括被投资方收入，增长约29%。然而，政府部门正在迅速减速，从2021年前9个月的57%降至第三季度的34%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Profit & KPI</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利及关键绩效指标</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不同寻常的客户获取策略早于转向被投资方。该公司的销售和营销费用似乎与其他公司的销售成本非常相似。之所以出现这种情况，是因为Palantir为潜在客户提供免费的试点计划，而不是要求预先付费才能使用其软件。销售和营销人员执行试点计划并协调解决方案开发，以产生销售。以下引用2021年第三季度10-Q总结了情况：</blockquote></p><p>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p><blockquote>销售和营销成本主要包括工资、股票薪酬费用以及我们的销售人员和参与执行试点和客户增长活动的人员的福利...因此，我认为Palantir的销售和营销费用是销售商品的成本和毛利率的降低。虽然这种分类不会影响底线，但它确实有助于将报告的78%毛利率置于背景中。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这种对销售和营销费用的看法有助于思考Palantir相对于其他公司的商业模式以及依赖毛利率的相对估值。下表根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制，显示了通过从每个行项目中删除相关股票薪酬费用进行调整的报告收入成本以及销售和营销费用。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，与2021年前9个月的59%（以黄色突出显示）相比，第三季度调整后的毛利润增长大幅放缓至25%（在表格下部以蓝色突出显示）。与今年前九个月相比，2021年第三季度的销售成本迅速上升。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir利用一个KPI或关键绩效指标来判断绩效并为决策提供信息，称为贡献率。它与我上面调整后的毛利率数据类似，如下表所示，该表是根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制的。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，贡献行与上表中调整后的毛利润行非常相似。此外，生长速率减速是相似的，如在突出显示的细胞中可以看到的。虽然37%与我估计的25%增长有很大不同，但低于64%的阶跃变化幅度相似。</blockquote></p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p><blockquote><b>营业收入</b></blockquote></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p><blockquote>谈到营业收入，我再次调整了报告的数据，剔除了股票期权相关费用以及与2020年直接上市IPO相关的一次性费用。最重要的信息再次是快速减速。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的，显示了不包括销售和营销费用的运营费用，以及我调整后的运营收入估计。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>在表格的下半部分，请注意2021年第三季度调整后营业收入令人难以置信地减速至40%的增长，而今年前9个月的增长为266%。一般和管理费用在2021年第三季度迅速增加，而Palantir在第三季度大幅减少了研发投资，仅增长了5%。</blockquote></p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>研发投资放缓可能会对销售增长产生负面影响，因为研发是销售过程中不可或缺的一部分。研发费用应该通过三个客户阶段来跟踪销售周期：获取、扩展和规模化。随着销售和营销部门确定客户需求，研发费用应响应未来销售潜力的增加。目前这似乎没有发生。</blockquote></p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年第三季度，Palantir调整后的年化营业收入运行率约为300至3.2亿美元，即每股约0.16美元。这是税前营业收入数字。营业收入方面的主要结论是盈利能力正在迅速放缓。这为正在部署的不同寻常的被投资方客户获取策略提供了额外的色彩。</blockquote></p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>共识增长估计</b></blockquote></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>如果Palantir的调整后年营业收入运行率为3.2亿美元，并且按25%的正常化税率征税，则当前的盈利能力将在2.4亿美元范围内，即稀释后每股0.12美元。有了这些信息和上面概述的增长减速，我们可以开始将普遍的盈利预测置于背景中。下表根据Seeking Alpha编制，显示了到2023年的普遍盈利和收入预测。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法。创建者：Brian Kapp，stoxdox</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p><blockquote>我强调了对2022年盈利和销售增长的普遍预期。请注意，2022年39%的普遍盈利增长预期与2021年第三季度40%的营业收入增长一致。此外，30%的销售增长预期略高于2021年第三季度29%的调整后销售增长（不包括对被投资方的销售）。</blockquote></p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于2021年第三季度营业收入迅速放缓至40%，而今年前9个月的营业收入为266%，预计2022年39%的盈利增长似乎面临过高的重大风险。这一轨迹可能会使2022年的盈利增长率远低于39%。</blockquote></p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于Palantir对随后购买Palantir软件的被投资方采取了积极的投资策略，2022年30%的销售额增长预期似乎是可以实现的。我相信市场会像我一样对被投资方的销售打折。排除这些销售，2022年收入增长轨迹似乎接近20%，而不是30%，这为进一步的增长失望打开了大门。</blockquote></p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>从2023年的共识预测来看，预期增长率与2022年非常相似。这种到2023年的直线增长预测增加了未来几年共识估计可能过高的风险。目前的轨迹表明，2022年和2023年的增长将大幅低于预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的交易价格是2021年普遍盈利预期的87倍，是2022年普遍盈利预期的62倍。请记住，这些是非GAAP（公认会计原则）盈利预测。根据公认会计准则，Palantir继续亏损生产。报告的2021年第三季度亏损为9200万美元，2021年前9个月亏损为3.52亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>使用非公认会计准则盈利预测，从历史市场角度来看，87倍的本年度盈利和62倍的预期盈利是极端估值。也就是说，它们是近年来成长型股票的可能性范围内的。考虑到Palantir迅速放缓的销售和营业收入增长率，以及共识估计可能过高的风险增加，目前共识估计的估值倍数几乎没有出错的余地。</blockquote></p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>在销售方面，Palantir的估值是2021年普遍收入预期的17倍，是2022年的13倍。从历史角度来看，对于大盘股公司来说，这些是极端的市销率倍数。我对核心销售增长趋势为20%（不包括被投资方收入）的估计表明，这些销售估值倍数也几乎没有误差。</blockquote></p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><blockquote>再加上营业收入增长迅速放缓，估值风险进一步上升。此外，从我截至2021年第三季度调整后的毛利率增长25%可以看出，Palantir的商业模式可能不支持历史上极端的市销率估值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然基本面背景表明误差幅度很小，超额回报潜力减弱，但技术设置表明更有意义的上行回报潜力。下面的3年周线图提供了潜在技术回报谱的鸟瞰图。我用橙色水平线突出显示了关键阻力位，用绿线突出了主要支撑位。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Palantir 3年周线图。（由Brian Kapp使用Barchart.com的图表创建）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>最近阻力位19美元和22美元的回报潜力分别为43%和65%。下行方面，最近的支撑位于10美元附近的IPO价格区间。该水平的下行回报潜力为-25%。需要注意的是，Palantir 16个月的短暂交易历史限制了技术分析的有用性。此外，由于没有低于IPO价格的交易历史，尚不清楚如果向下突破10美元水平，将在哪里找到支撑。</blockquote></p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计低于10美元的下行潜力，我采用了2022年非GAAP共识盈利预测的40倍市盈率。这一估值是当前市场平均水平的两倍，Palantir股价将达到8美元。这意味着较当前水平的下行风险为-40%。</blockquote></p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p><blockquote>如果2022年39%的普遍盈利预期过高，则有可能从8美元进一步下跌。如果估计过高，为了估计潜在的下行风险，我将相同的40倍非GAAP收益应用于Palantir当前完全纳税、非GAAP盈利能力的年运行率估计。如果2022年盈利增长率为25%（我对截至2021年第三季度调整后毛利润增长率的估计），而我对当前调整后税后盈利年增长率的估计为0.12美元，那么该股的交易价格可能会跌至6美元。这意味着下行风险为-55%。</blockquote></p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>下面的日线图详细介绍了技术背景。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><blockquote>技术面显示19美元至22美元之间存在较大阻力。鉴于过去三个月的持续下跌趋势，近期可能会出现反弹。也就是说，上行的技术潜力与下行的基本面潜力相结合，使该股在短期内具有65%至-55%的平衡潜在回报范围。</blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，Palantir应该被列入高风险成长型投资者的观察名单。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，由于出现了明显的危险信号，因此需要谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升（误差幅度有限）。由此产生的风险和回报之间的对称性导致中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir：危险信号还是机遇？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir：危险信号还是机遇？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-05 11:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至2021年第三季度，Palantir总共只有203名客户，而其中只有20名客户占总收入的58%。</li><li>与2020年相比，2021年前三季度Palantir核心客户群的年化收入增长放缓至20%。</li><li>2021年，Palantir从根本上改变了其上市战略。该公司目前正在利用其现金积极投资同意购买Palantir软件的其他公司（被投资方）。</li><li>管理层继续指导到十年中期销售额增长30%。然而，Palantir的三阶段业务模式暗示，不包括其被投资方的销售额，销售额呈下降趋势。</li><li>Palantir提供了非凡的长期增长潜力，这应该使其成为所有成长型投资者的观察名单。投资案例建立在机会和危险信号之间的支点上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>agawa288/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>我给予Palantir（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）中性风险/回报评级，因为长期增长机会被近期危险信号所抵消。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，一些值得注意的危险信号值得谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升（误差幅度有限）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险/回报评级：中性</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><blockquote>与企业软件领域的同行相比，Palantir在获取和扩大客户群方面拥有不同寻常的商业模式。该公司根据三个发展阶段或群体对其客户进行分类：(1)收购、(2)扩张和(3)规模。虽然它们是适用于所有企业的通用术语，但由于该公司对待客户的方式，它们在Palantir的情况下是独一无二的。</blockquote></p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户详细信息</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir将收购群体中的客户定义为截至年底收入低于100,000美元且对Palantir无利可图的客户。扩展群组的特点是一个销售额超过100,000美元但仍未盈利的客户。最后，规模群体被定义为在这一年中为Palantir创造了超过100,000美元收入且具有盈利关系的客户。</blockquote></p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p><blockquote>下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。第一个表显示了Palantir在2020年底分类的每个客户群体的2020年销售额（2020年收入）。在2021年年化栏中，您会发现这些2020年客户群到2021年第三季度的年化销售额。在第二组表格中，我汇编了过去12个月Palantir最大客户的关键详细信息，以及与2021年Palantir新客户相关的关键详细信息，这些客户尚未分配到某个群组。队列分类在每年年底进行。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p><blockquote>为了便于比较，我对相关信息进行了颜色编码。Palantir的主要现实之一是其集中的客户群，以蓝色突出显示。Palantir只有203个客户，前20名占销售额的58%。</blockquote></p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义，Palantir最大的客户属于规模群体。到2021年前三季度，规模队列（2020年底分类）以20%的年化速度增长。鉴于该群体占Palantir收入的86%，如果没有其他两个群体的爆炸性增长或规模群体的实质性加速，将销售增长率大幅提高到20%以上将具有挑战性。应该指出的是，管理层指导到十年中期年销售额增长30%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p><blockquote>上表中以黄色突出显示了2020年底收购和扩展队列。在年终Palantir报告发布之前，2021年的新客户不会被分配到一个队列中。我用黄色突出显示了相关的2021年新客户数据，以便于与2020年获取和扩展客户群体进行比较。我认为2021年新客户销售业绩（不包括对被投资方的销售）是可持续的核心增长率。被投资方的客户获取策略非常不寻常，具有极高的资本风险，从而引入声誉风险，从而引入品牌风险。</blockquote></p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，这里的被投资方是指Palantir使用Palantir的软件购买其股票以换取被投资方的客户。这意味着，来自被投资方的收入是Palantir投资这些客户股票的回报。在这方面，这些不是公平交易。我认为，不包括对被投资方的销售的新客户数量是确定纯粹基于市场的新客户增长率的重要数据点。</blockquote></p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>与2021年规模群体的年化增长率20%类似，到2021年第三季度，新客户销售额的年化增长率为22%，而2020年收购和扩张群体的销售额为2060万美元。虽然这不是新客户销售增长的完美比较，但这是一个公平的估计。因此，Palantir的基本销售增长率似乎倾向于接近20%，而不是该公司到十年中期30%的销售增长指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p><blockquote><b>被投资方</b></blockquote></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p><blockquote>退一步回顾Palantir对被投资方的投资非常重要，因为这是一种非常不寻常的获取客户的上市策略。上述数字表明收入增长趋势为20%，这让Palantir使用资产负债表现金为新客户提供资金的方式有了新的认识。下表摘自Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q。第一个表格列出了截至2021年第三季度末Palantir资助的公司。第二个表格显示了Palantir对尚未获得资金的新公司的投资承诺。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>我对上述每家公司都进行了粗略的回顾。共同的主题是，它们都是最受欢迎的成长板块中的早期公司。这些行业包括电动汽车、机器人、飞行电动汽车、卫星服务和药物发现。似乎没有一家被投资方本身能够提供足够的升值潜力来大幅提高Palantir的估值。Palantir的持股比例为0.4%至1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚每家公司有多少资金可以用于Palantir的软件。此外，目前尚不清楚这些公司截至2021年第三季度的1900万美元收入是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>我在blue中强调了Palantir对这七家公司的总投资为1.5亿美元。黄色突出显示的单元格代表投资的当前估值。Palantir目前仅在这七家公司上就下跌了约6400万美元。这凸显了这种客户获取方法的极端风险，因为迄今为止的资本损失使产生的收入相形见绌。上面没有列出其他私营公司的投资，但是，Palantir没有透露细节。它们包含在Palantir资产负债表上的其他资产中，截至2021年第三季度，该资产总额为1.16亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了Palantir截至2021年第三季度投资新公司的承诺。我用黄色突出显示了Palantir在2021年第三季度末后资助的两家公司。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><blockquote>我用蓝色突出显示了截至2021年第三季度新投资的总资金承诺。这是在第三季度末之前完成的1.5亿美元的基础上完成的2.52亿美元。虽然我没有研究过这些特定的公司，但它们似乎与上面回顾的前七项投资相似。这意味着，它们似乎承担着极大的资本风险，但与Palantir软件业务固有的估值上涨空间相比，上涨潜力可能很小。需要注意的是，近期估值极端，继续快速收缩。因此，在VC/IPO周期的顶部进行投资也会增加资本损失的时间风险。</blockquote></p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p><blockquote>谈到Palantir最近的表现，我选择将销售增长视为不包括被投资方，因为这是最有可能的可持续增长轨迹。下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。我通过去除被投资方的收入进行了调整，以得出净收入数字。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><blockquote>我用黄色突出显示了扣除被投资方收入后2021年第三季度29%的收入增长。被投资公司第三季度增长了6.5%。年初至今，被投资方收入占收入增长1.7%。29%的增长率已经低于该公司到十年中期30%的增长指导。请记住，随着Palantir投资承诺的额外资金，被投资方的收入流将会增长。无论如何，第三季度的增长率迅速放缓至29%，而不包括这些非公平销售，今年迄今的增长率为41%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Geographic & Segment Sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>地理和细分市场销售</b></blockquote></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p><blockquote>销售放缓是由法国主导的，2021年前三个季度收缩了22%（下面用橙色突出显示）。应该指出的是，Palantir与空客和航空业有着重要的关系。对于一个重要的客户和行业来说，这可能是一个负面的解读。虽然美国在2021年第三季度仍然是表现最好的国家，但正如下面蓝色突出显示的单元格所证明的那样，增长正在迅速放缓。该表根据Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告编制。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p><blockquote>除法国外，世界其他地区也在迅速放缓，从今年前9个月的45%降至2021年第三季度的20%。请注意，这些是未经任何调整的报告销售额。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的，强调第三季度销售大幅放缓发生在政府部门。请记住，被投资方收入包含在下图中，并为商业部门第三季度增长率增加了约6.5%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，商业部门的收入增长相当稳定，不包括被投资方收入，增长约29%。然而，政府部门正在迅速减速，从2021年前9个月的57%降至第三季度的34%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Profit & KPI</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利及关键绩效指标</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不同寻常的客户获取策略早于转向被投资方。该公司的销售和营销费用似乎与其他公司的销售成本非常相似。之所以出现这种情况，是因为Palantir为潜在客户提供免费的试点计划，而不是要求预先付费才能使用其软件。销售和营销人员执行试点计划并协调解决方案开发，以产生销售。以下引用2021年第三季度10-Q总结了情况：</blockquote></p><p>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p><blockquote>销售和营销成本主要包括工资、股票薪酬费用以及我们的销售人员和参与执行试点和客户增长活动的人员的福利...因此，我认为Palantir的销售和营销费用是销售商品的成本和毛利率的降低。虽然这种分类不会影响底线，但它确实有助于将报告的78%毛利率置于背景中。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这种对销售和营销费用的看法有助于思考Palantir相对于其他公司的商业模式以及依赖毛利率的相对估值。下表根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制，显示了通过从每个行项目中删除相关股票薪酬费用进行调整的报告收入成本以及销售和营销费用。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，与2021年前9个月的59%（以黄色突出显示）相比，第三季度调整后的毛利润增长大幅放缓至25%（在表格下部以蓝色突出显示）。与今年前九个月相比，2021年第三季度的销售成本迅速上升。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir利用一个KPI或关键绩效指标来判断绩效并为决策提供信息，称为贡献率。它与我上面调整后的毛利率数据类似，如下表所示，该表是根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制的。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，贡献行与上表中调整后的毛利润行非常相似。此外，生长速率减速是相似的，如在突出显示的细胞中可以看到的。虽然37%与我估计的25%增长有很大不同，但低于64%的阶跃变化幅度相似。</blockquote></p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p><blockquote><b>营业收入</b></blockquote></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p><blockquote>谈到营业收入，我再次调整了报告的数据，剔除了股票期权相关费用以及与2020年直接上市IPO相关的一次性费用。最重要的信息再次是快速减速。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的，显示了不包括销售和营销费用的运营费用，以及我调整后的运营收入估计。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>在表格的下半部分，请注意2021年第三季度调整后营业收入令人难以置信地减速至40%的增长，而今年前9个月的增长为266%。一般和管理费用在2021年第三季度迅速增加，而Palantir在第三季度大幅减少了研发投资，仅增长了5%。</blockquote></p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>研发投资放缓可能会对销售增长产生负面影响，因为研发是销售过程中不可或缺的一部分。研发费用应该通过三个客户阶段来跟踪销售周期：获取、扩展和规模化。随着销售和营销部门确定客户需求，研发费用应响应未来销售潜力的增加。目前这似乎没有发生。</blockquote></p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年第三季度，Palantir调整后的年化营业收入运行率约为300至3.2亿美元，即每股约0.16美元。这是税前营业收入数字。营业收入方面的主要结论是盈利能力正在迅速放缓。这为正在部署的不同寻常的被投资方客户获取策略提供了额外的色彩。</blockquote></p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>共识增长估计</b></blockquote></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>如果Palantir的调整后年营业收入运行率为3.2亿美元，并且按25%的正常化税率征税，则当前的盈利能力将在2.4亿美元范围内，即稀释后每股0.12美元。有了这些信息和上面概述的增长减速，我们可以开始将普遍的盈利预测置于背景中。下表根据Seeking Alpha编制，显示了到2023年的普遍盈利和收入预测。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法。创建者：Brian Kapp，stoxdox</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p><blockquote>我强调了对2022年盈利和销售增长的普遍预期。请注意，2022年39%的普遍盈利增长预期与2021年第三季度40%的营业收入增长一致。此外，30%的销售增长预期略高于2021年第三季度29%的调整后销售增长（不包括对被投资方的销售）。</blockquote></p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于2021年第三季度营业收入迅速放缓至40%，而今年前9个月的营业收入为266%，预计2022年39%的盈利增长似乎面临过高的重大风险。这一轨迹可能会使2022年的盈利增长率远低于39%。</blockquote></p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于Palantir对随后购买Palantir软件的被投资方采取了积极的投资策略，2022年30%的销售额增长预期似乎是可以实现的。我相信市场会像我一样对被投资方的销售打折。排除这些销售，2022年收入增长轨迹似乎接近20%，而不是30%，这为进一步的增长失望打开了大门。</blockquote></p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>从2023年的共识预测来看，预期增长率与2022年非常相似。这种到2023年的直线增长预测增加了未来几年共识估计可能过高的风险。目前的轨迹表明，2022年和2023年的增长将大幅低于预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的交易价格是2021年普遍盈利预期的87倍，是2022年普遍盈利预期的62倍。请记住，这些是非GAAP（公认会计原则）盈利预测。根据公认会计准则，Palantir继续亏损生产。报告的2021年第三季度亏损为9200万美元，2021年前9个月亏损为3.52亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>使用非公认会计准则盈利预测，从历史市场角度来看，87倍的本年度盈利和62倍的预期盈利是极端估值。也就是说，它们是近年来成长型股票的可能性范围内的。考虑到Palantir迅速放缓的销售和营业收入增长率，以及共识估计可能过高的风险增加，目前共识估计的估值倍数几乎没有出错的余地。</blockquote></p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>在销售方面，Palantir的估值是2021年普遍收入预期的17倍，是2022年的13倍。从历史角度来看，对于大盘股公司来说，这些是极端的市销率倍数。我对核心销售增长趋势为20%（不包括被投资方收入）的估计表明，这些销售估值倍数也几乎没有误差。</blockquote></p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><blockquote>再加上营业收入增长迅速放缓，估值风险进一步上升。此外，从我截至2021年第三季度调整后的毛利率增长25%可以看出，Palantir的商业模式可能不支持历史上极端的市销率估值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然基本面背景表明误差幅度很小，超额回报潜力减弱，但技术设置表明更有意义的上行回报潜力。下面的3年周线图提供了潜在技术回报谱的鸟瞰图。我用橙色水平线突出显示了关键阻力位，用绿线突出了主要支撑位。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Palantir 3年周线图。（由Brian Kapp使用Barchart.com的图表创建）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>最近阻力位19美元和22美元的回报潜力分别为43%和65%。下行方面，最近的支撑位于10美元附近的IPO价格区间。该水平的下行回报潜力为-25%。需要注意的是，Palantir 16个月的短暂交易历史限制了技术分析的有用性。此外，由于没有低于IPO价格的交易历史，尚不清楚如果向下突破10美元水平，将在哪里找到支撑。</blockquote></p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计低于10美元的下行潜力，我采用了2022年非GAAP共识盈利预测的40倍市盈率。这一估值是当前市场平均水平的两倍，Palantir股价将达到8美元。这意味着较当前水平的下行风险为-40%。</blockquote></p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p><blockquote>如果2022年39%的普遍盈利预期过高，则有可能从8美元进一步下跌。如果估计过高，为了估计潜在的下行风险，我将相同的40倍非GAAP收益应用于Palantir当前完全纳税、非GAAP盈利能力的年运行率估计。如果2022年盈利增长率为25%（我对截至2021年第三季度调整后毛利润增长率的估计），而我对当前调整后税后盈利年增长率的估计为0.12美元，那么该股的交易价格可能会跌至6美元。这意味着下行风险为-55%。</blockquote></p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>下面的日线图详细介绍了技术背景。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><blockquote>技术面显示19美元至22美元之间存在较大阻力。鉴于过去三个月的持续下跌趋势，近期可能会出现反弹。也就是说，上行的技术潜力与下行的基本面潜力相结合，使该股在短期内具有65%至-55%的平衡潜在回报范围。</blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，Palantir应该被列入高风险成长型投资者的观察名单。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，由于出现了明显的危险信号，因此需要谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升（误差幅度有限）。由此产生的风险和回报之间的对称性导致中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196927717","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.agawa288/iStock via Getty ImagesI am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.Risk/Reward Rating: NeutralPalantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.Customer DetailPalantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxSource: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxFor ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.InvesteesIt is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.Financial PerformanceTurning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.Geographic & Segment SalesThe sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.Gross Profit & KPIPalantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.Operating IncomeTurning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.Consensus Growth EstimatesIf Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.ValuationPalantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.TechnicalsWhile the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.SummaryAll told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633844071,"gmtCreate":1643965234750,"gmtModify":1643965234860,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Meta","listText":"Meta","text":"Meta","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633844071","repostId":"1180306841","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":945,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633972114,"gmtCreate":1643721274143,"gmtModify":1643721314882,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pltr","listText":"Pltr","text":"Pltr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633972114","repostId":"1196808170","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":992,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639720150,"gmtCreate":1643465654826,"gmtModify":1643465654972,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639720150","repostId":"1157223555","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157223555","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1643443466,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157223555?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-29 16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157223555","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve wi","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的经济学家与华尔街同行一起预测，美联储将比他们之前预期的更激进地加息。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>以Jan Hatzius为首的经济学家现在预测，美联储今年将五次将其近零基准上调25个基点，而不是四次。到今年年底，该基准利率将升至1.25%-1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.</p><p><blockquote>高盛现在在3月、5月、7月、9月和12月看到了转变。他们还预计官员们将在6月份宣布开始缩减资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p>The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，官员们已准备好在3月份加息，并在每次会议上为遏制40年来最快的通胀敞开了大门。周五的一份政府报告显示，截至12月的一年中，就业成本指数上涨了4%，为二十年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades</p><p><blockquote>美联储启动数十年来最激进的全球紧缩政策</blockquote></p><p>“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家在给客户的一份报告中表示：“工资增长高于美联储通胀目标水平的证据已经加强，我们已经上调了通胀路径。”“此外，鲍威尔主席本周早些时候的言论明确表示，美联储领导层对更激进的紧缩步伐持开放态度。”</blockquote></p><p>The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，如果市场状况发生变化或经济减速比预期快得多，美联储仍可能改变策略，或者如果通胀仍然足够高，美联储收紧货币政策的幅度甚至超过预期。</blockquote></p><p>Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们一致认为美联储将采取比之前押注更多的行动，但银行本周在政策制定者的激进程度上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行目前预测2022年加息七次，法国巴黎银行预测加息六次，摩根大通和德意志银行预计加息五次。</blockquote></p><p>Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>野村控股公司甚至预计央行将在3月份加息50个基点，这将是自2000年以来的最大举措。</blockquote></p><p>Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.</p><p><blockquote>彭博经济研究所坚持本月早些时候做出的五次加息的预测，尽管首席经济学家Anna Wong本周表示有六次加息的风险。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-29 16:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的经济学家与华尔街同行一起预测，美联储将比他们之前预期的更激进地加息。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>以Jan Hatzius为首的经济学家现在预测，美联储今年将五次将其近零基准上调25个基点，而不是四次。到今年年底，该基准利率将升至1.25%-1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.</p><p><blockquote>高盛现在在3月、5月、7月、9月和12月看到了转变。他们还预计官员们将在6月份宣布开始缩减资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p>The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，官员们已准备好在3月份加息，并在每次会议上为遏制40年来最快的通胀敞开了大门。周五的一份政府报告显示，截至12月的一年中，就业成本指数上涨了4%，为二十年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades</p><p><blockquote>美联储启动数十年来最激进的全球紧缩政策</blockquote></p><p>“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家在给客户的一份报告中表示：“工资增长高于美联储通胀目标水平的证据已经加强，我们已经上调了通胀路径。”“此外，鲍威尔主席本周早些时候的言论明确表示，美联储领导层对更激进的紧缩步伐持开放态度。”</blockquote></p><p>The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，如果市场状况发生变化或经济减速比预期快得多，美联储仍可能改变策略，或者如果通胀仍然足够高，美联储收紧货币政策的幅度甚至超过预期。</blockquote></p><p>Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们一致认为美联储将采取比之前押注更多的行动，但银行本周在政策制定者的激进程度上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行目前预测2022年加息七次，法国巴黎银行预测加息六次，摩根大通和德意志银行预计加息五次。</blockquote></p><p>Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>野村控股公司甚至预计央行将在3月份加息50个基点，这将是自2000年以来的最大举措。</blockquote></p><p>Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.</p><p><blockquote>彭博经济研究所坚持本月早些时候做出的五次加息的预测，尽管首席经济学家Anna Wong本周表示有六次加息的风险。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157223555","content_text":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639133016,"gmtCreate":1643191926915,"gmtModify":1643191976590,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639133016","repostId":"2206839931","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2206839931","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1643159234,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2206839931?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-26 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These five signals will tell you when the Wall Street correction is over, says veteran strategist<blockquote>资深策略师表示，这五个信号将告诉你华尔街调整何时结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2206839931","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market volatility looks set to stick around, with stock futures dropping after a wild Wall Street se","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Market volatility looks set to stick around, with stock futures dropping after a wild Wall Street session that harked back to 2008, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dug out of deep losses to close higher.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>市场波动似乎将持续下去，股票期货在经历了可追溯到2008年的疯狂华尔街交易后下跌，标普500和纳斯达克摆脱了深度跌幅，收盘走高。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6299898c03b6402dcbb113b2e0d5d500\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>"At one point Monday it felt like we were in a full-blown crisis let alone a recession," noted Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid and his team. As JPMorgan reports, some individual investors threw in the towel on Monday, and ahead of a huge newsy week.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行策略师吉姆·里德和他的团队指出：“周一，我们一度感觉自己陷入了全面危机，更不用说衰退了。”据摩根大通报道，一些个人投资者在周一认输了，这是一个巨大的新闻周。</blockquote></p><p>"The next three days have the potential to make or break the U.S. equity market," Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, told clients. "Tuesday, Microsoft reports earnings after the close. Wednesday is the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] decision, or more precisely nondecision day, and on Thursday, Apple reports earnings."</p><p><blockquote>JonesTrading首席市场策略师Michael O'Rourke对客户表示：“未来三天有可能决定美国股市的成败。”“周二，微软在收盘后公布财报。周三是FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）做出决定，或者更准确地说是无决定日，周四，苹果公布财报。”</blockquote></p><p>And don't forget the brewing geopolitical troubles between the West and Russia over Ukraine.</p><p><blockquote>别忘了西方和俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上酝酿的地缘政治麻烦。</blockquote></p><p>With few expecting any move from the Federal Reserve this week, investors could face "six weeks of investor limbo as they await the policy tightening cycle to commence," said O'Rourke. Still, by late Thursday, they may at least have more Fed and earnings clarity.</p><p><blockquote>奥罗克表示，由于很少有人预计美联储本周会采取任何行动，投资者可能会面临“六周的投资者困境，等待政策紧缩周期的开始”。尽管如此，到周四晚些时候，他们至少可能会对美联储和盈利有更多的了解。</blockquote></p><p>Our call of the day comes from a team of strategists led by Barry Bannister at Stifel. The strategists are calling Monday's late rally a "head fake," saying investors need five things to happen for stocks to bottom (they don't see this happening before late first quarter 2022) and the bull market to resume, and none of them look viable right now.</p><p><blockquote>我们今天的看涨期权来自Stifel的Barry Bannister领导的策略师团队。策略师称周一尾盘的反弹是“假的”，称投资者需要发生五件事才能让股市触底（他们认为这种情况在2022年第一季度末之前不会发生）并恢复牛市，但没有一件事现在看起来可行。</blockquote></p><p>One. A more dovish Fed, which would likely lower the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security real yield that has been pressuring growth stock price/earnings ratios. That's unlikely before the markets get the first rate increase, says Stifel.</p><p><blockquote>一。美联储更加鸽派，这可能会降低10年期国债通胀保值证券的实际收益率，该收益率一直在给成长型股票的市盈率带来压力。斯蒂菲尔表示，在市场首次加息之前，这种情况不太可能发生。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83b52eb7aa303fdbbe10ddaa0eb2f313\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"935\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Two. The U.S. purchasing managers index for manufacturing index must bottom, which Stifel doesn't see happening before April. Often, the annual PMI index change correlates with or leads year-to-year S&P 500 price, earnings per share and industrial production, they note.</p><p><blockquote>两个。美国制造业采购经理人指数必须触底，Stifel认为这种情况在4月份之前不会发生。他们指出，通常情况下，年度PMI指数变化与同比标普500价格、每股收益和工业生产相关或领先。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06249e70d9dfd4fbfcca05669cd55d2a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Three. Global M2 money supply -- that's money held by the public -- must bottom, and again this is unlikely until China's currency weakens.</p><p><blockquote>三个。全球M2货币供应量（即公众持有的货币）必须触底，而且在人民币贬值之前，这种情况不太可能发生。</blockquote></p><p>"China is 37% of global money supply in dollar terms and a weaker Chinese yuan would send the dollar up and growth in global money supply in dollar terms down, tightening U.S. financial conditions and lower the P/E ratio for the S&P 500," says Bannister and the team. So the next "shoe to drop" is a weaker yuan.</p><p><blockquote>“以美元计算，中国占全球货币供应量的37%，人民币走软将导致美元升值，而以美元计算的全球货币供应量增长下降，从而收紧美国金融状况并降低标普500的市盈率，”班尼斯特和他的团队说道。因此，下一个“要掉的鞋”是人民币走软。</blockquote></p><p>Four. S&P 500 quarterly EPS "beats" minus "misses," which have weakened since the second half of 2021 and have been pressuring stocks, need to calm down.</p><p><blockquote>四个。标普500季度每股收益“好于”减去“未达”，自2021年下半年以来一直疲软，并给股市带来压力，需要冷静下来。</blockquote></p><p>"When EPS beats minus misses are under pressure, in this case falling below the long-term trend (blue line), investors in the S&P 500 must learn to live with diminished policy support while also being subject to a lessening of the year/year change in S&P 500 price," says Bannister and the team.</p><p><blockquote>“当每股收益超出预期面临压力时，在这种情况下低于长期趋势（蓝线），标普500的投资者必须学会接受政策支持的减少，同时也要受到年度/年度减少的影响标普500价格的变化，”班尼斯特和他的团队说。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28adcdc4b43adb4a23dd1150473e5c7b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Five. That geopolitical mess to the East must be settled without hurting U.S. consumers.</p><p><blockquote>五个。东方的地缘政治混乱必须在不伤害美国消费者的情况下得到解决。</blockquote></p><p>"Ukraine events will matter: the West retaliating against a major global energy producer like Russia over possible Ukraine events may lead to a sharp decline in U.S. after-tax income after deducting household food & energy costs," as shown in the below chart, says Bannister and the team.</p><p><blockquote>“乌克兰事件将很重要：西方因可能发生的乌克兰事件对俄罗斯等全球主要能源生产国进行报复，可能会导致美国扣除家庭食品和能源成本后的税后收入大幅下降，”如下图所示，班尼斯特和他的团队说道。</blockquote></p><p>And when that happens, the Senate and U.S. House of Representatives are usually lost for the party in power," they add.</p><p><blockquote>当这种情况发生时，参议院和美国众议院通常会输给执政党，”他们补充道。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb3b450edd41ba498e1ae8b2e1e3124c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Russia has designs on eastern Ukraine only, and has the "nondollar reserves, power over EU energy flows, popular support in Russia and firepower to accomplish their goal of a USSR-style buffer zone separating them from the West," adds Bannister.</p><p><blockquote>班尼斯特补充道，俄罗斯只对乌克兰东部有计划，并且拥有“非美元储备、对欧盟能源流动的权力、俄罗斯的民众支持以及实现建立苏联式缓冲区将其与西方隔开的目标的火力”。</blockquote></p><p>Note, while Stifel have admitted it messed up with a summer 2021 correction call, in December it forecast the S&P 500 would hit 4,200 by the first quarter, recommending investors take shelter in defensives and clear out of cyclicals. It also warned that the Fed losing its nerve on rate increases could lead to "the third bubble in 100 years." </p><p><blockquote>请注意，虽然Stifel承认它搞砸了2021年夏季的回调看涨期权，但它在12月份预测标普500将在第一季度触及4,200点，建议投资者采取防御性措施并摆脱周期性股票。它还警告称，美联储对加息失去勇气可能会导致“100年来的第三次泡沫”。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These five signals will tell you when the Wall Street correction is over, says veteran strategist<blockquote>资深策略师表示，这五个信号将告诉你华尔街调整何时结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese five signals will tell you when the Wall Street correction is over, says veteran strategist<blockquote>资深策略师表示，这五个信号将告诉你华尔街调整何时结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-26 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Market volatility looks set to stick around, with stock futures dropping after a wild Wall Street session that harked back to 2008, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dug out of deep losses to close higher.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>市场波动似乎将持续下去，股票期货在经历了可追溯到2008年的疯狂华尔街交易后下跌，标普500和纳斯达克摆脱了深度跌幅，收盘走高。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6299898c03b6402dcbb113b2e0d5d500\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>"At one point Monday it felt like we were in a full-blown crisis let alone a recession," noted Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid and his team. As JPMorgan reports, some individual investors threw in the towel on Monday, and ahead of a huge newsy week.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行策略师吉姆·里德和他的团队指出：“周一，我们一度感觉自己陷入了全面危机，更不用说衰退了。”据摩根大通报道，一些个人投资者在周一认输了，这是一个巨大的新闻周。</blockquote></p><p>"The next three days have the potential to make or break the U.S. equity market," Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, told clients. "Tuesday, Microsoft reports earnings after the close. Wednesday is the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] decision, or more precisely nondecision day, and on Thursday, Apple reports earnings."</p><p><blockquote>JonesTrading首席市场策略师Michael O'Rourke对客户表示：“未来三天有可能决定美国股市的成败。”“周二，微软在收盘后公布财报。周三是FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）做出决定，或者更准确地说是无决定日，周四，苹果公布财报。”</blockquote></p><p>And don't forget the brewing geopolitical troubles between the West and Russia over Ukraine.</p><p><blockquote>别忘了西方和俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上酝酿的地缘政治麻烦。</blockquote></p><p>With few expecting any move from the Federal Reserve this week, investors could face "six weeks of investor limbo as they await the policy tightening cycle to commence," said O'Rourke. Still, by late Thursday, they may at least have more Fed and earnings clarity.</p><p><blockquote>奥罗克表示，由于很少有人预计美联储本周会采取任何行动，投资者可能会面临“六周的投资者困境，等待政策紧缩周期的开始”。尽管如此，到周四晚些时候，他们至少可能会对美联储和盈利有更多的了解。</blockquote></p><p>Our call of the day comes from a team of strategists led by Barry Bannister at Stifel. The strategists are calling Monday's late rally a "head fake," saying investors need five things to happen for stocks to bottom (they don't see this happening before late first quarter 2022) and the bull market to resume, and none of them look viable right now.</p><p><blockquote>我们今天的看涨期权来自Stifel的Barry Bannister领导的策略师团队。策略师称周一尾盘的反弹是“假的”，称投资者需要发生五件事才能让股市触底（他们认为这种情况在2022年第一季度末之前不会发生）并恢复牛市，但没有一件事现在看起来可行。</blockquote></p><p>One. A more dovish Fed, which would likely lower the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security real yield that has been pressuring growth stock price/earnings ratios. That's unlikely before the markets get the first rate increase, says Stifel.</p><p><blockquote>一。美联储更加鸽派，这可能会降低10年期国债通胀保值证券的实际收益率，该收益率一直在给成长型股票的市盈率带来压力。斯蒂菲尔表示，在市场首次加息之前，这种情况不太可能发生。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83b52eb7aa303fdbbe10ddaa0eb2f313\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"935\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Two. The U.S. purchasing managers index for manufacturing index must bottom, which Stifel doesn't see happening before April. Often, the annual PMI index change correlates with or leads year-to-year S&P 500 price, earnings per share and industrial production, they note.</p><p><blockquote>两个。美国制造业采购经理人指数必须触底，Stifel认为这种情况在4月份之前不会发生。他们指出，通常情况下，年度PMI指数变化与同比标普500价格、每股收益和工业生产相关或领先。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06249e70d9dfd4fbfcca05669cd55d2a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Three. Global M2 money supply -- that's money held by the public -- must bottom, and again this is unlikely until China's currency weakens.</p><p><blockquote>三个。全球M2货币供应量（即公众持有的货币）必须触底，而且在人民币贬值之前，这种情况不太可能发生。</blockquote></p><p>"China is 37% of global money supply in dollar terms and a weaker Chinese yuan would send the dollar up and growth in global money supply in dollar terms down, tightening U.S. financial conditions and lower the P/E ratio for the S&P 500," says Bannister and the team. So the next "shoe to drop" is a weaker yuan.</p><p><blockquote>“以美元计算，中国占全球货币供应量的37%，人民币走软将导致美元升值，而以美元计算的全球货币供应量增长下降，从而收紧美国金融状况并降低标普500的市盈率，”班尼斯特和他的团队说道。因此，下一个“要掉的鞋”是人民币走软。</blockquote></p><p>Four. S&P 500 quarterly EPS "beats" minus "misses," which have weakened since the second half of 2021 and have been pressuring stocks, need to calm down.</p><p><blockquote>四个。标普500季度每股收益“好于”减去“未达”，自2021年下半年以来一直疲软，并给股市带来压力，需要冷静下来。</blockquote></p><p>"When EPS beats minus misses are under pressure, in this case falling below the long-term trend (blue line), investors in the S&P 500 must learn to live with diminished policy support while also being subject to a lessening of the year/year change in S&P 500 price," says Bannister and the team.</p><p><blockquote>“当每股收益超出预期面临压力时，在这种情况下低于长期趋势（蓝线），标普500的投资者必须学会接受政策支持的减少，同时也要受到年度/年度减少的影响标普500价格的变化，”班尼斯特和他的团队说。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28adcdc4b43adb4a23dd1150473e5c7b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Five. That geopolitical mess to the East must be settled without hurting U.S. consumers.</p><p><blockquote>五个。东方的地缘政治混乱必须在不伤害美国消费者的情况下得到解决。</blockquote></p><p>"Ukraine events will matter: the West retaliating against a major global energy producer like Russia over possible Ukraine events may lead to a sharp decline in U.S. after-tax income after deducting household food & energy costs," as shown in the below chart, says Bannister and the team.</p><p><blockquote>“乌克兰事件将很重要：西方因可能发生的乌克兰事件对俄罗斯等全球主要能源生产国进行报复，可能会导致美国扣除家庭食品和能源成本后的税后收入大幅下降，”如下图所示，班尼斯特和他的团队说道。</blockquote></p><p>And when that happens, the Senate and U.S. House of Representatives are usually lost for the party in power," they add.</p><p><blockquote>当这种情况发生时，参议院和美国众议院通常会输给执政党，”他们补充道。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb3b450edd41ba498e1ae8b2e1e3124c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Russia has designs on eastern Ukraine only, and has the "nondollar reserves, power over EU energy flows, popular support in Russia and firepower to accomplish their goal of a USSR-style buffer zone separating them from the West," adds Bannister.</p><p><blockquote>班尼斯特补充道，俄罗斯只对乌克兰东部有计划，并且拥有“非美元储备、对欧盟能源流动的权力、俄罗斯的民众支持以及实现建立苏联式缓冲区将其与西方隔开的目标的火力”。</blockquote></p><p>Note, while Stifel have admitted it messed up with a summer 2021 correction call, in December it forecast the S&P 500 would hit 4,200 by the first quarter, recommending investors take shelter in defensives and clear out of cyclicals. It also warned that the Fed losing its nerve on rate increases could lead to "the third bubble in 100 years." </p><p><blockquote>请注意，虽然Stifel承认它搞砸了2021年夏季的回调看涨期权，但它在12月份预测标普500将在第一季度触及4,200点，建议投资者采取防御性措施并摆脱周期性股票。它还警告称，美联储对加息失去勇气可能会导致“100年来的第三次泡沫”。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-five-signals-will-tell-you-when-the-wall-street-correction-is-over-says-veteran-strategist-11643113067?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4097":"系统软件","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4564":"太空概念","BK4187":"航天航空与国防","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","VZ":"Verizon Comms","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","SPOT":"Spotify Technology S.A.","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","XRX":"施乐","BK4115":"综合电信业务","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","JNJ":"强生","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","AXP":"美国运通","BK4566":"资本集团","MMM":"3M","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4206":"工业集团企业",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4504":"桥水持仓","MSFT":"微软","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4538":"云计算","BK4166":"消费信贷","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4108":"电影和娱乐",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","IBM":"IBM","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4134":"信息科技咨询与其它服务","LMT":"洛克希德马丁","BK4007":"制药","BK4525":"远程办公概念"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-five-signals-will-tell-you-when-the-wall-street-correction-is-over-says-veteran-strategist-11643113067?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2206839931","content_text":"Market volatility looks set to stick around, with stock futures dropping after a wild Wall Street session that harked back to 2008, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dug out of deep losses to close higher.\"At one point Monday it felt like we were in a full-blown crisis let alone a recession,\" noted Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid and his team. As JPMorgan reports, some individual investors threw in the towel on Monday, and ahead of a huge newsy week.\"The next three days have the potential to make or break the U.S. equity market,\" Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, told clients. \"Tuesday, Microsoft reports earnings after the close. Wednesday is the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] decision, or more precisely nondecision day, and on Thursday, Apple reports earnings.\"And don't forget the brewing geopolitical troubles between the West and Russia over Ukraine.With few expecting any move from the Federal Reserve this week, investors could face \"six weeks of investor limbo as they await the policy tightening cycle to commence,\" said O'Rourke. Still, by late Thursday, they may at least have more Fed and earnings clarity.Our call of the day comes from a team of strategists led by Barry Bannister at Stifel. The strategists are calling Monday's late rally a \"head fake,\" saying investors need five things to happen for stocks to bottom (they don't see this happening before late first quarter 2022) and the bull market to resume, and none of them look viable right now.One. A more dovish Fed, which would likely lower the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security real yield that has been pressuring growth stock price/earnings ratios. That's unlikely before the markets get the first rate increase, says Stifel.Two. The U.S. purchasing managers index for manufacturing index must bottom, which Stifel doesn't see happening before April. Often, the annual PMI index change correlates with or leads year-to-year S&P 500 price, earnings per share and industrial production, they note.Three. Global M2 money supply -- that's money held by the public -- must bottom, and again this is unlikely until China's currency weakens.\"China is 37% of global money supply in dollar terms and a weaker Chinese yuan would send the dollar up and growth in global money supply in dollar terms down, tightening U.S. financial conditions and lower the P/E ratio for the S&P 500,\" says Bannister and the team. So the next \"shoe to drop\" is a weaker yuan.Four. S&P 500 quarterly EPS \"beats\" minus \"misses,\" which have weakened since the second half of 2021 and have been pressuring stocks, need to calm down.\"When EPS beats minus misses are under pressure, in this case falling below the long-term trend (blue line), investors in the S&P 500 must learn to live with diminished policy support while also being subject to a lessening of the year/year change in S&P 500 price,\" says Bannister and the team.Five. That geopolitical mess to the East must be settled without hurting U.S. consumers.\"Ukraine events will matter: the West retaliating against a major global energy producer like Russia over possible Ukraine events may lead to a sharp decline in U.S. after-tax income after deducting household food & energy costs,\" as shown in the below chart, says Bannister and the team.And when that happens, the Senate and U.S. House of Representatives are usually lost for the party in power,\" they add.Russia has designs on eastern Ukraine only, and has the \"nondollar reserves, power over EU energy flows, popular support in Russia and firepower to accomplish their goal of a USSR-style buffer zone separating them from the West,\" adds Bannister.Note, while Stifel have admitted it messed up with a summer 2021 correction call, in December it forecast the S&P 500 would hit 4,200 by the first quarter, recommending investors take shelter in defensives and clear out of cyclicals. It also warned that the Fed losing its nerve on rate increases could lead to \"the third bubble in 100 years.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XRX":1,"IBM":1,".DJI":0.9,"MSFT":0.74,"SPOT":1,"AXP":1,"JNJ":1,"LMT":1,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.6,"MMM":1,".IXIC":0.9,"VZ":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630749732,"gmtCreate":1643066215028,"gmtModify":1643066215119,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630749732","repostId":"1135838595","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630425851,"gmtCreate":1643026865792,"gmtModify":1643026865919,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile] ","listText":"[Smile] ","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630425851","repostId":"2205802723","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630306729,"gmtCreate":1642686633475,"gmtModify":1642686642539,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630306729","repostId":"2204058661","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":852,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":697065156,"gmtCreate":1642167767437,"gmtModify":1642167794785,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697065156","repostId":"1144666508","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144666508","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642160056,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144666508?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-14 19:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks That Are Actually Solid Long-Term Picks<blockquote>3只实际上是可靠的长期选择的模因股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144666508","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The meme stock craze of 2021 was certainly a historically unique market environment. Many stocks, so","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The meme stock craze of 2021 was certainly a historically unique market environment. Many stocks, some heavily shorted and some just interesting speculative growth plays, rocketed sharply higher -- often doubling, tripling, or more in a very short time. And many took investors on quite a roller coaster ride for months.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>2021年的模因股票热潮无疑是一个历史上独特的市场环境。许多股票，有些被严重做空，有些只是有趣的投机性增长股票，大幅上涨——通常在很短的时间内翻倍、三倍或更多。许多人让投资者经历了数月的过山车之旅。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>To be sure, most meme stocks aren't worth buying as long-term investments. For example, it's tough to make a long-term investment case for <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a>.</b> On the other hand, there are some stocks that got caught up in the meme stock trade that looks like solid long-term investments. And this is especially true now that there's been a massive correction in many high-growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，大多数模因股票不值得作为长期投资购买。例如，很难为<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>.</b>另一方面，有一些股票陷入了看起来像是可靠的长期投资的模因股票交易。尤其是在许多高增长股票出现大幅调整的情况下。</blockquote></p><p><b>A massive opportunity and a great strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巨大的机遇和伟大的战略</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Offerpad</b>(NYSE:OPAD) is a real estate company that is a so-called iBuyer, or instant buyer, of homes. Offerpad's core business involves buying homes directly from sellers, doing cosmetic repairs, and then selling them directly to buyers, hopefully earning a profit in the process.</p><p><blockquote><b>优惠垫</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：OPAD）是一家房地产公司，是所谓的房屋iBuyer或即时买家。Offerpad的核心业务包括直接从卖家那里购买房屋，进行表面维修，然后直接出售给买家，希望在此过程中赚取利润。</blockquote></p><p>However, there are a couple of things that set Offerpad apart from its peer group (which really only consists of two other companies). For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> thing, Offerpad is the only iBuyer that is more focused on efficiency than all-out growth. Its unit economics have been better than those of its peers, and while it won't be consistently profitable for some time, it isn't that far from it right now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，有几件事使Offerpad有别于其同行集团（实际上只由另外两家公司组成）。为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>事实上，Offerpad是唯一一家更注重效率而不是全面增长的iBuyer。它的单位经济效益一直好于同行，虽然在一段时间内不会持续盈利，但现在离盈利也不远了。</blockquote></p><p>Second, Offerpad isn't necessarily trying to completely replace open-market home sales. Its Offerpad Flex product encourages customers to list their home on the open market (with an Offerpad partner agent) and gives them a cash offer to keep in their back pocket in the event they get tired of the traditional sale process.</p><p><blockquote>其次，Offerpad并不一定试图完全取代公开市场房屋销售。其Offerpad Flex产品鼓励客户在公开市场上列出他们的房屋（通过Offerpad合作伙伴代理），并为他们提供现金报价，以便在他们厌倦传统销售流程时放在口袋里。</blockquote></p><p>Offerpad went a bit meme-stockish after its late 2021 special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger was completed, at one point rocketing to nearly $21 from its $10 pre-SPAC valuation. Now that the SPAC boom has cooled, Offerpad has plunged to less than $6, in line with many other recent SPAC targets. But make no mistake -- this is a real business with a huge market opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年底完成与特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)的合并后，Offerpad变得有点疯狂，一度从SPAC之前的10美元估值飙升至近21美元。现在SPAC热潮已经降温，Offerpad已暴跌至6美元以下，与许多其他最近的SPAC目标一致。但毫无疑问，这是一个真正的行业，有着巨大的市场机会。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tons of disruptive potential</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巨大的颠覆性潜力</b></blockquote></p><p>One of the most discussed stocks in some of the most popular trader chat rooms in 2021, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\"><b>SoFi</b></a>, went public through a Chamath Palihapitiya-backed SPAC last year (this was "IPOE" for those who follow Palihapitiya). It started out as a private student loan company but has since evolved into a financial ecosystem, complete with a full lineup of lending products, a credit card, a bank account, a brokerage account, and more. The company also owns the Galileo financial services API and payments platform, which provides functionality for 89 million financial accounts operated by partners.</p><p><blockquote>2021年一些最受欢迎的交易者聊天室中讨论最多的股票之一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\"><b>索菲</b></a>，去年通过Chamath Palihapitiya支持的SPAC上市（对于那些关注Palihapitiya的人来说，这是“IPOE”）。它最初是一家私人学生贷款公司，但后来发展成为一个金融生态系统，拥有全套贷款产品、信用卡、银行账户、经纪账户等。该公司还拥有伽利略金融服务API和支付平台，为合作伙伴运营的8900万个金融账户提供功能。</blockquote></p><p>To say SoFi's growth has been phenomenal would be an understatement. Thefintech'suser base has nearly doubled over the past year to more than 2.9 million members, and these users account for roughly 4.3 million different financial products. And it's on the non-lending side of the business where the growth has been especially impressive, with a 179% year-over-year increase in products as of the third quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>说SoFi的增长惊人是一种保守的说法。Thefintech的用户群在过去一年中几乎翻了一番，超过290万会员，这些用户约占430万种不同的金融产品。非贷款业务的增长尤其令人印象深刻，截至2021年第三季度，产品同比增长179%。</blockquote></p><p>SoFi has the capability to be a true disruptor of the traditional bank model and is making all the right moves to scale its business in a sustainable way. With shares down 36% in the last two months, now could be a great time to add it at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>SoFi有能力成为传统银行模式的真正颠覆者，并且正在采取所有正确的举措以可持续的方式扩大其业务规模。过去两个月股价下跌了36%，现在可能是打折增持的好时机。</blockquote></p><p><b>The most exciting growth is yet to come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最激动人心的增长还在后头</b></blockquote></p><p>Last but certainly not least, insurance disruptor <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\"><b>Lemonade</b></a> has been a big victim of the recent growth stock headwinds, with shares down by about 35% in the past couple of months and a total of 80% off their all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>最后但并非最不重要的是，保险颠覆者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\"><b>柠檬汽水</b></a>成为近期成长型股票逆风的一大受害者，过去几个月股价下跌约35%，较历史高点累计下跌80%。</blockquote></p><p>Lemonade is aninsurance technology company, aiming to provide a better way to get insurance quotes, buy policies, and submit claims. In the company's core business of renters and homeowners insurance, customer feedback has been incredibly strong.</p><p><blockquote>Lemonade是一家保险技术公司，旨在提供更好的方式来获取保险报价、购买保单和提交索赔。在该公司的租房者和房主保险核心业务中，客户反馈非常强烈。</blockquote></p><p>However, it's the rollout of Lemonade Car, the company's much-anticipated auto insurance product -- along with the pending acquisition of <b>Metromile</b>(NASDAQ:MILE)-- where Lemonade could accelerate the availability of the product and rapidly scale the business. If the company can replicate its early insurance success in the auto space, and can keep loss ratios in check, Lemonade could be a big winner for patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司备受期待的汽车保险产品Lemonade Car的推出，以及即将收购的<b>地铁里程</b>（纳斯达克：英里）-柠檬水可以加速产品的上市并迅速扩大业务规模。如果该公司能够复制其早期在汽车领域的保险成功，并能够控制损失率，那么Lemonade可能会成为耐心投资者的大赢家。</blockquote></p><p>Remember what you're buying</p><p><blockquote>记住你买的是什么</blockquote></p><p></p><p>To be sure, these three stocks are real businesses with great long-term growth opportunities. However, it's important to keep in mind that while the "meme stock" craze has died down, that doesn't mean it has permanently gone away. And if it comes back, all three of these stocks are likely to experience quite a roller coaster ride. Before you add any of these to your portfolio, it's important to be prepared for that possibility.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，这三只股票都是真正的企业，具有巨大的长期增长机会。然而，重要的是要记住，虽然“模因股票”热潮已经消退，但这并不意味着它已经永久消失。如果它卷土重来，这三只股票都可能经历一场过山车般的行情。在您将这些添加到您的投资组合之前，为这种可能性做好准备非常重要。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks That Are Actually Solid Long-Term Picks<blockquote>3只实际上是可靠的长期选择的模因股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks That Are Actually Solid Long-Term Picks<blockquote>3只实际上是可靠的长期选择的模因股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-14 19:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The meme stock craze of 2021 was certainly a historically unique market environment. Many stocks, some heavily shorted and some just interesting speculative growth plays, rocketed sharply higher -- often doubling, tripling, or more in a very short time. And many took investors on quite a roller coaster ride for months.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>2021年的模因股票热潮无疑是一个历史上独特的市场环境。许多股票，有些被严重做空，有些只是有趣的投机性增长股票，大幅上涨——通常在很短的时间内翻倍、三倍或更多。许多人让投资者经历了数月的过山车之旅。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>To be sure, most meme stocks aren't worth buying as long-term investments. For example, it's tough to make a long-term investment case for <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a>.</b> On the other hand, there are some stocks that got caught up in the meme stock trade that looks like solid long-term investments. And this is especially true now that there's been a massive correction in many high-growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，大多数模因股票不值得作为长期投资购买。例如，很难为<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>.</b>另一方面，有一些股票陷入了看起来像是可靠的长期投资的模因股票交易。尤其是在许多高增长股票出现大幅调整的情况下。</blockquote></p><p><b>A massive opportunity and a great strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巨大的机遇和伟大的战略</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Offerpad</b>(NYSE:OPAD) is a real estate company that is a so-called iBuyer, or instant buyer, of homes. Offerpad's core business involves buying homes directly from sellers, doing cosmetic repairs, and then selling them directly to buyers, hopefully earning a profit in the process.</p><p><blockquote><b>优惠垫</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：OPAD）是一家房地产公司，是所谓的房屋iBuyer或即时买家。Offerpad的核心业务包括直接从卖家那里购买房屋，进行表面维修，然后直接出售给买家，希望在此过程中赚取利润。</blockquote></p><p>However, there are a couple of things that set Offerpad apart from its peer group (which really only consists of two other companies). For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> thing, Offerpad is the only iBuyer that is more focused on efficiency than all-out growth. Its unit economics have been better than those of its peers, and while it won't be consistently profitable for some time, it isn't that far from it right now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，有几件事使Offerpad有别于其同行集团（实际上只由另外两家公司组成）。为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>事实上，Offerpad是唯一一家更注重效率而不是全面增长的iBuyer。它的单位经济效益一直好于同行，虽然在一段时间内不会持续盈利，但现在离盈利也不远了。</blockquote></p><p>Second, Offerpad isn't necessarily trying to completely replace open-market home sales. Its Offerpad Flex product encourages customers to list their home on the open market (with an Offerpad partner agent) and gives them a cash offer to keep in their back pocket in the event they get tired of the traditional sale process.</p><p><blockquote>其次，Offerpad并不一定试图完全取代公开市场房屋销售。其Offerpad Flex产品鼓励客户在公开市场上列出他们的房屋（通过Offerpad合作伙伴代理），并为他们提供现金报价，以便在他们厌倦传统销售流程时放在口袋里。</blockquote></p><p>Offerpad went a bit meme-stockish after its late 2021 special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger was completed, at one point rocketing to nearly $21 from its $10 pre-SPAC valuation. Now that the SPAC boom has cooled, Offerpad has plunged to less than $6, in line with many other recent SPAC targets. But make no mistake -- this is a real business with a huge market opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年底完成与特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)的合并后，Offerpad变得有点疯狂，一度从SPAC之前的10美元估值飙升至近21美元。现在SPAC热潮已经降温，Offerpad已暴跌至6美元以下，与许多其他最近的SPAC目标一致。但毫无疑问，这是一个真正的行业，有着巨大的市场机会。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tons of disruptive potential</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巨大的颠覆性潜力</b></blockquote></p><p>One of the most discussed stocks in some of the most popular trader chat rooms in 2021, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\"><b>SoFi</b></a>, went public through a Chamath Palihapitiya-backed SPAC last year (this was "IPOE" for those who follow Palihapitiya). It started out as a private student loan company but has since evolved into a financial ecosystem, complete with a full lineup of lending products, a credit card, a bank account, a brokerage account, and more. The company also owns the Galileo financial services API and payments platform, which provides functionality for 89 million financial accounts operated by partners.</p><p><blockquote>2021年一些最受欢迎的交易者聊天室中讨论最多的股票之一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\"><b>索菲</b></a>，去年通过Chamath Palihapitiya支持的SPAC上市（对于那些关注Palihapitiya的人来说，这是“IPOE”）。它最初是一家私人学生贷款公司，但后来发展成为一个金融生态系统，拥有全套贷款产品、信用卡、银行账户、经纪账户等。该公司还拥有伽利略金融服务API和支付平台，为合作伙伴运营的8900万个金融账户提供功能。</blockquote></p><p>To say SoFi's growth has been phenomenal would be an understatement. Thefintech'suser base has nearly doubled over the past year to more than 2.9 million members, and these users account for roughly 4.3 million different financial products. And it's on the non-lending side of the business where the growth has been especially impressive, with a 179% year-over-year increase in products as of the third quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>说SoFi的增长惊人是一种保守的说法。Thefintech的用户群在过去一年中几乎翻了一番，超过290万会员，这些用户约占430万种不同的金融产品。非贷款业务的增长尤其令人印象深刻，截至2021年第三季度，产品同比增长179%。</blockquote></p><p>SoFi has the capability to be a true disruptor of the traditional bank model and is making all the right moves to scale its business in a sustainable way. With shares down 36% in the last two months, now could be a great time to add it at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>SoFi有能力成为传统银行模式的真正颠覆者，并且正在采取所有正确的举措以可持续的方式扩大其业务规模。过去两个月股价下跌了36%，现在可能是打折增持的好时机。</blockquote></p><p><b>The most exciting growth is yet to come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最激动人心的增长还在后头</b></blockquote></p><p>Last but certainly not least, insurance disruptor <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\"><b>Lemonade</b></a> has been a big victim of the recent growth stock headwinds, with shares down by about 35% in the past couple of months and a total of 80% off their all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>最后但并非最不重要的是，保险颠覆者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\"><b>柠檬汽水</b></a>成为近期成长型股票逆风的一大受害者，过去几个月股价下跌约35%，较历史高点累计下跌80%。</blockquote></p><p>Lemonade is aninsurance technology company, aiming to provide a better way to get insurance quotes, buy policies, and submit claims. In the company's core business of renters and homeowners insurance, customer feedback has been incredibly strong.</p><p><blockquote>Lemonade是一家保险技术公司，旨在提供更好的方式来获取保险报价、购买保单和提交索赔。在该公司的租房者和房主保险核心业务中，客户反馈非常强烈。</blockquote></p><p>However, it's the rollout of Lemonade Car, the company's much-anticipated auto insurance product -- along with the pending acquisition of <b>Metromile</b>(NASDAQ:MILE)-- where Lemonade could accelerate the availability of the product and rapidly scale the business. If the company can replicate its early insurance success in the auto space, and can keep loss ratios in check, Lemonade could be a big winner for patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司备受期待的汽车保险产品Lemonade Car的推出，以及即将收购的<b>地铁里程</b>（纳斯达克：英里）-柠檬水可以加速产品的上市并迅速扩大业务规模。如果该公司能够复制其早期在汽车领域的保险成功，并能够控制损失率，那么Lemonade可能会成为耐心投资者的大赢家。</blockquote></p><p>Remember what you're buying</p><p><blockquote>记住你买的是什么</blockquote></p><p></p><p>To be sure, these three stocks are real businesses with great long-term growth opportunities. However, it's important to keep in mind that while the "meme stock" craze has died down, that doesn't mean it has permanently gone away. And if it comes back, all three of these stocks are likely to experience quite a roller coaster ride. Before you add any of these to your portfolio, it's important to be prepared for that possibility.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，这三只股票都是真正的企业，具有巨大的长期增长机会。然而，重要的是要记住，虽然“模因股票”热潮已经消退，但这并不意味着它已经永久消失。如果它卷土重来，这三只股票都可能经历一场过山车般的行情。在您将这些添加到您的投资组合之前，为这种可能性做好准备非常重要。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/14/3-meme-stocks-that-are-actually-solid-long-term-pi/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","LMND":"Lemonade, Inc.","OPAD":"Offerpad Solutions","SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/14/3-meme-stocks-that-are-actually-solid-long-term-pi/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144666508","content_text":"The meme stock craze of 2021 was certainly a historically unique market environment. Many stocks, some heavily shorted and some just interesting speculative growth plays, rocketed sharply higher -- often doubling, tripling, or more in a very short time. And many took investors on quite a roller coaster ride for months.To be sure, most meme stocks aren't worth buying as long-term investments. For example, it's tough to make a long-term investment case for AMC Entertainment. On the other hand, there are some stocks that got caught up in the meme stock trade that looks like solid long-term investments. And this is especially true now that there's been a massive correction in many high-growth stocks.A massive opportunity and a great strategyOfferpad(NYSE:OPAD) is a real estate company that is a so-called iBuyer, or instant buyer, of homes. Offerpad's core business involves buying homes directly from sellers, doing cosmetic repairs, and then selling them directly to buyers, hopefully earning a profit in the process.However, there are a couple of things that set Offerpad apart from its peer group (which really only consists of two other companies). For one thing, Offerpad is the only iBuyer that is more focused on efficiency than all-out growth. Its unit economics have been better than those of its peers, and while it won't be consistently profitable for some time, it isn't that far from it right now.Second, Offerpad isn't necessarily trying to completely replace open-market home sales. Its Offerpad Flex product encourages customers to list their home on the open market (with an Offerpad partner agent) and gives them a cash offer to keep in their back pocket in the event they get tired of the traditional sale process.Offerpad went a bit meme-stockish after its late 2021 special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger was completed, at one point rocketing to nearly $21 from its $10 pre-SPAC valuation. Now that the SPAC boom has cooled, Offerpad has plunged to less than $6, in line with many other recent SPAC targets. But make no mistake -- this is a real business with a huge market opportunity.Tons of disruptive potentialOne of the most discussed stocks in some of the most popular trader chat rooms in 2021, SoFi, went public through a Chamath Palihapitiya-backed SPAC last year (this was \"IPOE\" for those who follow Palihapitiya). It started out as a private student loan company but has since evolved into a financial ecosystem, complete with a full lineup of lending products, a credit card, a bank account, a brokerage account, and more. The company also owns the Galileo financial services API and payments platform, which provides functionality for 89 million financial accounts operated by partners.To say SoFi's growth has been phenomenal would be an understatement. Thefintech'suser base has nearly doubled over the past year to more than 2.9 million members, and these users account for roughly 4.3 million different financial products. And it's on the non-lending side of the business where the growth has been especially impressive, with a 179% year-over-year increase in products as of the third quarter of 2021.SoFi has the capability to be a true disruptor of the traditional bank model and is making all the right moves to scale its business in a sustainable way. With shares down 36% in the last two months, now could be a great time to add it at a discount.The most exciting growth is yet to comeLast but certainly not least, insurance disruptor Lemonade has been a big victim of the recent growth stock headwinds, with shares down by about 35% in the past couple of months and a total of 80% off their all-time high.Lemonade is aninsurance technology company, aiming to provide a better way to get insurance quotes, buy policies, and submit claims. In the company's core business of renters and homeowners insurance, customer feedback has been incredibly strong.However, it's the rollout of Lemonade Car, the company's much-anticipated auto insurance product -- along with the pending acquisition of Metromile(NASDAQ:MILE)-- where Lemonade could accelerate the availability of the product and rapidly scale the business. If the company can replicate its early insurance success in the auto space, and can keep loss ratios in check, Lemonade could be a big winner for patient investors.Remember what you're buyingTo be sure, these three stocks are real businesses with great long-term growth opportunities. However, it's important to keep in mind that while the \"meme stock\" craze has died down, that doesn't mean it has permanently gone away. And if it comes back, all three of these stocks are likely to experience quite a roller coaster ride. 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16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157223555","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve wi","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的经济学家与华尔街同行一起预测，美联储将比他们之前预期的更激进地加息。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>以Jan Hatzius为首的经济学家现在预测，美联储今年将五次将其近零基准上调25个基点，而不是四次。到今年年底，该基准利率将升至1.25%-1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.</p><p><blockquote>高盛现在在3月、5月、7月、9月和12月看到了转变。他们还预计官员们将在6月份宣布开始缩减资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p>The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，官员们已准备好在3月份加息，并在每次会议上为遏制40年来最快的通胀敞开了大门。周五的一份政府报告显示，截至12月的一年中，就业成本指数上涨了4%，为二十年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades</p><p><blockquote>美联储启动数十年来最激进的全球紧缩政策</blockquote></p><p>“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家在给客户的一份报告中表示：“工资增长高于美联储通胀目标水平的证据已经加强，我们已经上调了通胀路径。”“此外，鲍威尔主席本周早些时候的言论明确表示，美联储领导层对更激进的紧缩步伐持开放态度。”</blockquote></p><p>The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，如果市场状况发生变化或经济减速比预期快得多，美联储仍可能改变策略，或者如果通胀仍然足够高，美联储收紧货币政策的幅度甚至超过预期。</blockquote></p><p>Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们一致认为美联储将采取比之前押注更多的行动，但银行本周在政策制定者的激进程度上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行目前预测2022年加息七次，法国巴黎银行预测加息六次，摩根大通和德意志银行预计加息五次。</blockquote></p><p>Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>野村控股公司甚至预计央行将在3月份加息50个基点，这将是自2000年以来的最大举措。</blockquote></p><p>Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.</p><p><blockquote>彭博经济研究所坚持本月早些时候做出的五次加息的预测，尽管首席经济学家Anna Wong本周表示有六次加息的风险。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-29 16:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的经济学家与华尔街同行一起预测，美联储将比他们之前预期的更激进地加息。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>以Jan Hatzius为首的经济学家现在预测，美联储今年将五次将其近零基准上调25个基点，而不是四次。到今年年底，该基准利率将升至1.25%-1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.</p><p><blockquote>高盛现在在3月、5月、7月、9月和12月看到了转变。他们还预计官员们将在6月份宣布开始缩减资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p>The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，官员们已准备好在3月份加息，并在每次会议上为遏制40年来最快的通胀敞开了大门。周五的一份政府报告显示，截至12月的一年中，就业成本指数上涨了4%，为二十年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades</p><p><blockquote>美联储启动数十年来最激进的全球紧缩政策</blockquote></p><p>“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家在给客户的一份报告中表示：“工资增长高于美联储通胀目标水平的证据已经加强，我们已经上调了通胀路径。”“此外，鲍威尔主席本周早些时候的言论明确表示，美联储领导层对更激进的紧缩步伐持开放态度。”</blockquote></p><p>The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，如果市场状况发生变化或经济减速比预期快得多，美联储仍可能改变策略，或者如果通胀仍然足够高，美联储收紧货币政策的幅度甚至超过预期。</blockquote></p><p>Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们一致认为美联储将采取比之前押注更多的行动，但银行本周在政策制定者的激进程度上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行目前预测2022年加息七次，法国巴黎银行预测加息六次，摩根大通和德意志银行预计加息五次。</blockquote></p><p>Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>野村控股公司甚至预计央行将在3月份加息50个基点，这将是自2000年以来的最大举措。</blockquote></p><p>Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.</p><p><blockquote>彭博经济研究所坚持本月早些时候做出的五次加息的预测，尽管首席经济学家Anna Wong本周表示有六次加息的风险。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157223555","content_text":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
