FreedomKim的个人主页 - 老虎社区

FreedomKim

FreedomKim

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2021-03-19

$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$ who pump money in?

2021-06-29

$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$ why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. Still undervalue?

2021-02-16

$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$ market cap is just AUD70million, compare to 8VI market cap OF AUD 130million. 8IH own 80% of 8VI.

2021-07-08

小鹏第一

天天拍车：小鹏、蔚来二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了特斯拉

2021-06-20

Be the lemming with life jacket

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2021-06-27

Invest the undervalue and just wait.

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2021-04-01

28nm 以下只有9.2％, 多久才能追台积电？

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2021-03-30

Ark

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2021-03-19

More seeking alpha article. Thanks

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2021-08-13

太厉害了

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2021-08-01

连沙子都涨

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2021-07-20

淘特第一

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2021-07-20

Gpu 来定价

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2021-07-08

Nice

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2021-07-07

Right management

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2021-07-05

阿里太强了

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2021-07-04

高飞了

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2021-07-02

很完整的dcf估值

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2021-07-01

Strong buy👍

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2021-06-29

The chart only show 3% that is higher PS and lower revenue growth. Where to find the 90%?

Palantir: The Mass Exodus

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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来定价","listText":"Gpu 来定价","text":"Gpu 来定价","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171247739","repostId":"2152651687","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2152651687","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626710108,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2152651687?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 23:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"NVIDIA助力网鱼网咖全面技术升级 深化合作定义行业新模式","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152651687","media":"sina.com.cn","summary":"7月11日，NVIDIA及网鱼网咖媒体沟通会在上海召开，NVIDIA中国区消费业务总经理张维、网鱼网咖CEO董寅鸣 出席沟通会。会上围绕NVIDIA在网吧行业支持的策略，以及和网鱼网咖更深度合作的未来，与会嘉宾展开深入交流。网鱼网咖，到目前为止，累计会员数已经超过2000万。","content":"<html><body><article><p>7月11日，NVIDIA及网鱼网咖媒体沟通会在上海召开，NVIDIA中国区消费业务总经理张维、网鱼网咖CEO董寅鸣 出席沟通会。NVIDIA作为全球领先的GPU研发商，在游戏领域绝大多数主流赛事与专业高端玩家均会选用NVIDIA GPU，这对于中国连锁网吧企业网鱼网咖来说，能够深度合作，使用最佳GPU为玩家带来最棒的游戏体验，是它们首要考虑的因素，因此双方合作备受媒体关注。</p><p>会上围绕NVIDIA在网吧行业支持的策略，以及和网鱼网咖更深度合作的未来，与会嘉宾展开深入交流。</p><p>以下为交流精选</p><p>Q：2016年之后，网吧整个行业是整体往下趋势，甚至出现一定程度的负增长。请问一下董总，您对此怎么看？在您看来，您作为网吧行业非常有代表性的一个企业，从2020年到2022年，整个网吧市场大概会有怎样的发展趋势？网鱼网咖对此有怎样的发展计划和应对措施？</p><p>董寅鸣：网吧或者网咖、电竞行业，从趋势来看，2015年达到比较高的一个高峰，网吧的数量在全国有15万家。往后延续，每年的确是有一些相应的减少，这个是客观存在的事实。特别是，从去年疫情爆发以后，很多的网吧都慢慢的没落，然后被淘汰。这也反映了一个情况，其实网吧的经营状况代表着它未来健康成长存活的条件和空间。被淘汰的都是那些环境不好，设备陈旧，经营不善的网吧。而我们觉得，未来网吧的趋势肯定是连锁化、品牌化，有相应的管理，给到用户很好的体验。无论是从设备的角度，还是环境、包房，还是门店的清洁、明亮、服务，都是取决用户最主要的需求。这是第一点。</p><p>第二，很多朋友问我，网吧未来还会存在吗？现在买电脑，自己更新电脑，很多人家里都有电脑，为什么去网吧。的确，我们会发现一个很有意思的情况，大家可以看到，在网吧玩游戏的人，尽管我跟你在一起玩，我不认识你，但是我知道你也在打游戏，我也在打游戏，你在打英雄联盟，我也在打英雄联盟，就有互动的感觉。网吧还是存在社交属性和有体验的需求，网吧这个行业还是会存在。</p><p>第三，玩游戏玩电竞是一个人相应的需求，现在电竞电子游戏又是越来越受到年轻人的喜欢。中国玩游戏，无论手游还是端游，有很多受众群体，但是硬核玩家，玩PC端游戏的人群是相当多。从全国人口数量，玩PC端电竞爱好者差不多有3亿人。这样子看，整个线下网吧也好，网咖也好，或者未来电竞这块，其实都是会有很多用户的需求。所以我们觉得网鱼网咖需要在这个行业里面做出一些不断的迭代和创新，吸引到年轻人这部分的需求。</p><p>如果各位能够看一下我们在里面玩游戏用户特征非常明显，年龄段18岁到30岁，绝大部分年轻人喜欢游戏体验。大致是这样子。</p><p>Q：NVIDIA之前对网吧行业有相关认证标准，我们想了解，网鱼目前整体认证标准达到什么样评级？对于新增的电竞酒店，是否适用之前的标准？如果不适用，是否后续会增加全新的维度？</p><p>张维：我的一个很重要的观察，大家看看网鱼收费标准，网鱼收费标准里面有一个明确说法，比如这个包间定定15块钱原因是因为3070，收20块钱原因是3080。对于网鱼的一个经营者来讲，这个GPU不是一个打游戏的工具，这个GPU是定价的工具，这是很重要的。就像对于广大卖显卡的渠道而言，GPU不是一个打游戏的东西，GPU是一个不断增长有利润的业务。对于网鱼来讲，GPU是他们服务客户的一个定价工具。这个标准比我们推出认证标准都来得重要，因为这个反映业务经营的实质，也反映了用户的认知。这比贴<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>四星五星或者什么都重要，用这个方法来做定价，这是核心。所以我相信，他们做电竞酒店的时候，网鱼也会做这样的酒店，好的酒店，好的房间，一定会用更好的GPU。所以我相信这个是我们双方合作业务的一个结晶。</p><p>把一个GPU从技术产品变成一个商品，变成客户用它来做定价的工具，其实每一步从业务上是做很多工作，在业务上是一个大的飞跃。</p><p>董寅鸣：我们门口上有贴一条口号，高端玩家都来网鱼网咖。我们自己的定位，我们希望在网咖或者网吧或者电竞，定位比较高端，想让用户体验非常电竞化，整个游戏感觉体验也是非常高端。在设备层面，20多年来已经验证，设备配置好，用户就愿意买单，设备上座率高，所以也在不断升级和迭代。所以现在对门店有要求，必须有多少比例3060，必须要有多少比例3080等，这样才能保证进入网鱼的每个用户，都能够选择他所希望的电脑设备。</p><p>而且APP有一个功能叫做订座，可以在家里，在宿舍，在学校，可以选择周围附近的网鱼的网吧某一台高端配置的电脑。我们特意把这个配置放在APP选座的条款上，因为这个对用户来说，是非常重要的。他要有确定性的知道，我想要选择3080单人包房，现在是空着，我现在马上过来，线上做一个相应的订座。</p><p>这个是我们多年来摸索出来的经验，设备对于用户来说，他是认可的。我们可以通过这个收取更高的定价，有更好的回报，用户体验也更高。</p><p>Q：电竞酒店有没有具体的布局计划，开店数量。您怎么考虑投资回报，作为品牌店来运营。</p><p>董寅鸣：电竞酒店，可能大家也比较关注，的确在网鱼的角度，我们也关注很久。电竞酒店从差不多三年多前，我们看到市场上已经开出来一部分。但是我们也发现，现在全国范围内所存在的电竞酒店质量，客观来说参差不齐。还有，如果我说品牌的话，没有一家电竞酒店品牌做到的规模达到100家店以上，所以品牌化力量和连锁化力量目前还没有创造出来。</p><p>现在在全国电竞酒店，我们了解到的数字已经达到1万家以上。但是整个品牌力、连锁力、管理，甚至用户体验做的还不够。所以我们考虑很长时间，在今年4月份，在上海开了第一家电竞酒店，在松江。如果有兴趣，各位可以搜一下美团点评。目前为止，开了3家店，都在上海，我看每天的数据都非常好。</p><p>我们在这块准备怎么做，或者未来的布局，我有一个企图心，希望今年能够开出来30家网鱼电竞酒店。您刚才说的，因为我们对电竞酒店的定位是中高端，给用户的体验还是注重在电竞这一块，相对来说配置肯定会比较高。</p><p>投资回报，在门店设计部分中，也是追求用户的体验。我们在网鱼这么多年来有相应的电竞运营管理优势和连锁化管理的优势，我们也有信心，如果进入到电竞酒店这条路线，也会这部分发挥我们的优势。</p><p>同样的，在人力管理方面、用户体验方面，以及与会员连接部分能够有更好的体验。网鱼网咖，到目前为止，累计会员数已经超过2000万。网鱼网咖的用户跟电竞酒店的用户是高度匹配和吻合。我们发现一个很有意思的现象，来网鱼网咖，差不多70%以上是男性，年龄段是18岁到30岁占绝大部分。我们也关注到电竞酒店的用户，大部分也是男性。现在来我们这三家电竞酒店的用户，也是差不多70%男性，年龄段略微宽一点18岁到35岁为主。从网鱼网咖有很多会员，可以有优势，能够导流到电竞酒店。所以啊，现在这三家店差不多每天都是满房。</p><p>我们也很有信心，酒店的收益，第一个定价，还有入住率。如果能够保证相应的入住率，定位一个比较合适的价格，所以我们还是有很有信心，在电竞酒店行业能够有非常好的投资回报周期。</p><p>目前，根据已经经营的这段时间来预判，网鱼的电竞酒店投资回报周期能够控制在30多个月。如果大家了解酒店这个行业，一家酒店的投资回报周期在4年到5年都是比较健康的。在网鱼电竞方面，第一我们刚刚进入者，我们也在尝试，我们也在不断了解市场的状况，包括竞争对手。同样的，我们对这个产品还是有一定的信心，在这个频道上面能够做的更好。</p><p>30家，今年下半年主要聚焦上海。</p><p>张维：大家可以想想，显然咖啡不是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>发明的，但是在星巴克进入中国之前，中国人不怎么喝咖啡，那时候不是没有咖啡，那时候有咖啡，也有雀巢，还有日式咖啡，有本地咖啡，但是做的不够好。当这些咖啡店做的不够，大家印象的是中国人不怎么喝咖啡。直到星巴克做的确实够好，体验不一样，然后就变成中国人喝咖啡。现在大家不再议论中国人是不是喝咖啡这个问题。已经很明显了。但是在星巴克之前，中国人似乎不怎么喝咖啡。</p><p>就像喜茶之前，也没有说中国人不一定喝奶茶，以前也有奶茶，广东也有、香港也有，但不是全国的现象，奶茶也不成为生活一部分。直到有像喜茶、奈雪等，做的够好，够有品牌，质量够稳定，够有形象之后，才变成一个生活现象。好像最近5年，奶茶变成生活的必需品，相信5年之前不是必需品。就像星巴克进入中国之前，咖啡不是中国人民的生活必需品。</p><p>Q：第一个，关于营收方面的问题，去年各个行业都受到疫情影响，在今年上半年，网鱼网咖营收回到2019年之前的水平了吗？第二个，之前采访过你们的公司高管，提到可能会降低网吧一半的成本，现在网鱼在这方面发展怎么样？</p><p>董寅鸣：说到营收，疫情从去年开始到目前为止，还没有完全恢复。的确，对实体行业有非常大的冲击。好处是，在这个时期，我们也在做自己的反思和复盘，未来到底该怎么走。其中有一个结论，也是在去年年中的时候，我们自己做的一个调整，我们觉得还是需要更注重用户的体验，上网游戏的体验。所以我们在去年开始，针对存量店，包括新店，都有一个调整。门店的配置要提升，门店的环境要改造，像这家店。现在有很多店，都会追求单人包房、双人包房和相应的包房比例，因为我们发现用户在这部分有需求。一部分有自己相应的封闭的隐私，还有环境的要求，清洁的要求，包房方面能够满足用户的需求。一个是配置的部分，一个是店态的部分。</p><p>还有更注重于用户服务体验，大家进来可以感受到门店清洁卫生，还有同学们微笑，亲切的接待等。通过这方面的变革，今年上半年所开的所有店，收入都特别好。因为我们的门槛要求高了，所以用户体验也好，用户进入我们门店的人次，包括消费金额也会更高，他们更认可这个高端的设备，更认可我们的环境，更认可我们的体验。</p><p>客观来说，因为我说的是公司整体，但是我们有一千家门店，有些店的配置很快，环境很不错，用户体验也很好，所以整个展现非常好。但是有些门店因为设备还是相比较整个市场来看，有点旧，或者设备需要做升级。所以在这块，我们从这个数据去说服加盟商，要求他们尽快去把门店的设备配置进一步做升级。</p><p>接下来，给到整个网吧也好，网鱼也好，整个RTX30系列配置显卡更多以后，要求更多门店做设备升级，从而给用户更好的体验。</p><p>云游戏，我们一直在关注，我们知道，在市场上有很多公司在做这方面做投入。比如说和我们内部在做这方面的创新尝试，也有和顺网合作。这部分我们也在密切关注，甚至有些店也跟对方做小范围的合作。这个技术，我们觉得未来会越来越成熟，此时此刻目前阶段还有待提升空间。但是这个方向，很多公司觉得非常不错，所以我们也期待未来技术的成熟，能够给到用户游戏的体验没有任何差异的情况下，才更有信心把这个技术导入到网吧或者电竞行业。</p><p>Q：第一个问题，关于电竞酒店的装修风格有个性化定制还是统一标准？我考虑到统一标准，相当于普通酒店加上电脑。第二个问题，网鱼网咖一直是中国电竞合作提升的，这次成立网鱼电竞是为了做自己的赛道，还是说通过自己的布局去挖掘新的选手，很多草根选手是没有站队，直接接触到，但是网鱼体量很大，全国各地都有，你们是最先能接触到的。第三个问题，我30几岁不大去网咖，RTX最根本的东西是光线追踪，而且光线追踪绝大部分都是海外游戏，网鱼网咖现在已经有海外游戏能够玩到，还是有计划做？</p><p>董寅鸣： 第一个问题，电竞酒店，目前开的三家店，客观来说，都是从之前的电竞酒店翻牌过来的，我们做了一些设备升级，人员输送去做门店运营管理。整个装修改变并不是非常大，但是就发现效益提升很高。第一用户有需求，第二我们还没有在店态的风格设计部分做进一步推进情况下，已经达到这样的成果，所以我们对未来更有信心。我们目前针对每家电竞酒店的风格，目前正在做设计，也召集了外部专业的设计师一起主攻这块。具体未来是一个风格，还是根据不同的店有不同的风格，敬请期待。</p><p>第二个问题，电竞合作。因为今天有很多网鱼市场部赛事的同学，电竞除了给用户设备方面的体验，还有一个，也是网鱼网咖之前的优势，有一个网鱼竞技场，举办了差不多有10年的一个赛事，是我们一直在运营的一个赛事IP。2019年全年有26万人次来参与网鱼竞技场。</p><p>竞技场有两方面，因为我们跟<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>、暴雪这些游戏厂商合作非常好，他们要落地的很多赛事活动，第一肯定要找网鱼网咖，城市争霸赛、高校联赛等，也有很多都是网鱼独家举办。所以我们也是通过这些赛事能够吸引到更多用户，能够加入网鱼，来参与这些活动，来参与比赛，然后提升自己的竞技水平。或者跟我的同学朋友因为有这些赛事，聚集到某一个网吧网咖，来玩一下相应的活动。所以我们在网鱼电竞这个角度，未来包括电竞酒店也是一样，相应的资源会更多的分配在网鱼电竞和电竞酒店，让更多的电竞游戏爱好者能够通过到我们门店来，到我们酒店来，运用到高端的设备配置以后，一起来玩相应的游戏。</p><p>Q：NVIDIA本身是全球化的公司，像网吧这类文化在亚洲本身有一个特别性。NVIDIA在网吧布局，对于中国来说，是很重要的业务。在全球的战略布局上，NVIDIA是怎么看的？NVIDIA和网吧有更好合作和支持，帮助网吧打造哪些资源？</p><p>张维：首先，中国占NV全球的业务比例相当大，NV中国绝对是NV全球的第一大市场，比美国市场、西欧市场大得多，中国市场可能比整个南美北美加在一起生意都大，所以中国市场对NV来讲，是非常重要的一个生意。这是第一。</p><p>第二，有些你看到的文化现象或者用户现象，从表面上看是独特的。但是其中如果抽取背后的逻辑，比如说我们跟总部领导是这么抽象网吧业主，网吧业主需求，他们需要一个企业级IT的稳定性，但是他们只愿意付一个消费者的钱，但是需要拿到企业IT的稳定性，这就是网吧业主。当你把这个事情抽象到这个逻辑的时候，就是有一群人，这群人只愿意付消费者的价钱，但是需要企业级IT的稳定性，这就是网吧业务。</p><p>某个网吧有50台80台机器并不够大，但是把中国的网吧业主加在一起有8、9百万台的机器，每三年更新，每年都是三四百万台，加在一起这就是大企业，就是大企业需求，要足够的稳定性、可靠性，他们买了这个是用来赚钱的，不是用来玩的。他们有一个升级周期。而且他们的预算就是消费者的预算。这些事情说清楚，逻辑抽象清楚，无论他是一个白人，是一个黑人，是一个拉丁裔还是印度裔的工程师，他都能听懂。一个产品经理都能搞清楚，他满足这个需求，做产品就是了。从我们公司来讲，支持网吧业务，我们没有感觉到有任何文化上的问题。</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>声明：新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。</strong></p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NVIDIA助力网鱼网咖全面技术升级 深化合作定义行业新模式</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNVIDIA助力网鱼网咖全面技术升级 深化合作定义行业新模式\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 23:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021071923583779d4e935&s=b><strong>sina.com.cn</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月11日，NVIDIA及网鱼网咖媒体沟通会在上海召开，NVIDIA中国区消费业务总经理张维、网鱼网咖CEO董寅鸣 出席沟通会。NVIDIA作为全球领先的GPU研发商，在游戏领域绝大多数主流赛事与专业高端玩家均会选用NVIDIA GPU，这对于中国连锁网吧企业网鱼网咖来说，能够深度合作，使用最佳GPU为玩家带来最棒的游戏体验，是它们首要考虑的因素，因此双方合作备受媒体关注。会上围绕NVIDIA在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021071923583779d4e935&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0bfebcb37e1240d16377a06ed99d55","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021071923583779d4e935&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2152651687","content_text":"7月11日，NVIDIA及网鱼网咖媒体沟通会在上海召开，NVIDIA中国区消费业务总经理张维、网鱼网咖CEO董寅鸣 出席沟通会。NVIDIA作为全球领先的GPU研发商，在游戏领域绝大多数主流赛事与专业高端玩家均会选用NVIDIA GPU，这对于中国连锁网吧企业网鱼网咖来说，能够深度合作，使用最佳GPU为玩家带来最棒的游戏体验，是它们首要考虑的因素，因此双方合作备受媒体关注。会上围绕NVIDIA在网吧行业支持的策略，以及和网鱼网咖更深度合作的未来，与会嘉宾展开深入交流。以下为交流精选Q：2016年之后，网吧整个行业是整体往下趋势，甚至出现一定程度的负增长。请问一下董总，您对此怎么看？在您看来，您作为网吧行业非常有代表性的一个企业，从2020年到2022年，整个网吧市场大概会有怎样的发展趋势？网鱼网咖对此有怎样的发展计划和应对措施？董寅鸣：网吧或者网咖、电竞行业，从趋势来看，2015年达到比较高的一个高峰，网吧的数量在全国有15万家。往后延续，每年的确是有一些相应的减少，这个是客观存在的事实。特别是，从去年疫情爆发以后，很多的网吧都慢慢的没落，然后被淘汰。这也反映了一个情况，其实网吧的经营状况代表着它未来健康成长存活的条件和空间。被淘汰的都是那些环境不好，设备陈旧，经营不善的网吧。而我们觉得，未来网吧的趋势肯定是连锁化、品牌化，有相应的管理，给到用户很好的体验。无论是从设备的角度，还是环境、包房，还是门店的清洁、明亮、服务，都是取决用户最主要的需求。这是第一点。第二，很多朋友问我，网吧未来还会存在吗？现在买电脑，自己更新电脑，很多人家里都有电脑，为什么去网吧。的确，我们会发现一个很有意思的情况，大家可以看到，在网吧玩游戏的人，尽管我跟你在一起玩，我不认识你，但是我知道你也在打游戏，我也在打游戏，你在打英雄联盟，我也在打英雄联盟，就有互动的感觉。网吧还是存在社交属性和有体验的需求，网吧这个行业还是会存在。第三，玩游戏玩电竞是一个人相应的需求，现在电竞电子游戏又是越来越受到年轻人的喜欢。中国玩游戏，无论手游还是端游，有很多受众群体，但是硬核玩家，玩PC端游戏的人群是相当多。从全国人口数量，玩PC端电竞爱好者差不多有3亿人。这样子看，整个线下网吧也好，网咖也好，或者未来电竞这块，其实都是会有很多用户的需求。所以我们觉得网鱼网咖需要在这个行业里面做出一些不断的迭代和创新，吸引到年轻人这部分的需求。如果各位能够看一下我们在里面玩游戏用户特征非常明显，年龄段18岁到30岁，绝大部分年轻人喜欢游戏体验。大致是这样子。Q：NVIDIA之前对网吧行业有相关认证标准，我们想了解，网鱼目前整体认证标准达到什么样评级？对于新增的电竞酒店，是否适用之前的标准？如果不适用，是否后续会增加全新的维度？张维：我的一个很重要的观察，大家看看网鱼收费标准，网鱼收费标准里面有一个明确说法，比如这个包间定定15块钱原因是因为3070，收20块钱原因是3080。对于网鱼的一个经营者来讲，这个GPU不是一个打游戏的工具，这个GPU是定价的工具，这是很重要的。就像对于广大卖显卡的渠道而言，GPU不是一个打游戏的东西，GPU是一个不断增长有利润的业务。对于网鱼来讲，GPU是他们服务客户的一个定价工具。这个标准比我们推出认证标准都来得重要，因为这个反映业务经营的实质，也反映了用户的认知。这比贴三星四星五星或者什么都重要，用这个方法来做定价，这是核心。所以我相信，他们做电竞酒店的时候，网鱼也会做这样的酒店，好的酒店，好的房间，一定会用更好的GPU。所以我相信这个是我们双方合作业务的一个结晶。把一个GPU从技术产品变成一个商品，变成客户用它来做定价的工具，其实每一步从业务上是做很多工作，在业务上是一个大的飞跃。董寅鸣：我们门口上有贴一条口号，高端玩家都来网鱼网咖。我们自己的定位，我们希望在网咖或者网吧或者电竞，定位比较高端，想让用户体验非常电竞化，整个游戏感觉体验也是非常高端。在设备层面，20多年来已经验证，设备配置好，用户就愿意买单，设备上座率高，所以也在不断升级和迭代。所以现在对门店有要求，必须有多少比例3060，必须要有多少比例3080等，这样才能保证进入网鱼的每个用户，都能够选择他所希望的电脑设备。而且APP有一个功能叫做订座，可以在家里，在宿舍，在学校，可以选择周围附近的网鱼的网吧某一台高端配置的电脑。我们特意把这个配置放在APP选座的条款上，因为这个对用户来说，是非常重要的。他要有确定性的知道，我想要选择3080单人包房，现在是空着，我现在马上过来，线上做一个相应的订座。这个是我们多年来摸索出来的经验，设备对于用户来说，他是认可的。我们可以通过这个收取更高的定价，有更好的回报，用户体验也更高。Q：电竞酒店有没有具体的布局计划，开店数量。您怎么考虑投资回报，作为品牌店来运营。董寅鸣：电竞酒店，可能大家也比较关注，的确在网鱼的角度，我们也关注很久。电竞酒店从差不多三年多前，我们看到市场上已经开出来一部分。但是我们也发现，现在全国范围内所存在的电竞酒店质量，客观来说参差不齐。还有，如果我说品牌的话，没有一家电竞酒店品牌做到的规模达到100家店以上，所以品牌化力量和连锁化力量目前还没有创造出来。现在在全国电竞酒店，我们了解到的数字已经达到1万家以上。但是整个品牌力、连锁力、管理，甚至用户体验做的还不够。所以我们考虑很长时间，在今年4月份，在上海开了第一家电竞酒店，在松江。如果有兴趣，各位可以搜一下美团点评。目前为止，开了3家店，都在上海，我看每天的数据都非常好。我们在这块准备怎么做，或者未来的布局，我有一个企图心，希望今年能够开出来30家网鱼电竞酒店。您刚才说的，因为我们对电竞酒店的定位是中高端，给用户的体验还是注重在电竞这一块，相对来说配置肯定会比较高。投资回报，在门店设计部分中，也是追求用户的体验。我们在网鱼这么多年来有相应的电竞运营管理优势和连锁化管理的优势，我们也有信心，如果进入到电竞酒店这条路线，也会这部分发挥我们的优势。同样的，在人力管理方面、用户体验方面，以及与会员连接部分能够有更好的体验。网鱼网咖，到目前为止，累计会员数已经超过2000万。网鱼网咖的用户跟电竞酒店的用户是高度匹配和吻合。我们发现一个很有意思的现象，来网鱼网咖，差不多70%以上是男性，年龄段是18岁到30岁占绝大部分。我们也关注到电竞酒店的用户，大部分也是男性。现在来我们这三家电竞酒店的用户，也是差不多70%男性，年龄段略微宽一点18岁到35岁为主。从网鱼网咖有很多会员，可以有优势，能够导流到电竞酒店。所以啊，现在这三家店差不多每天都是满房。我们也很有信心，酒店的收益，第一个定价，还有入住率。如果能够保证相应的入住率，定位一个比较合适的价格，所以我们还是有很有信心，在电竞酒店行业能够有非常好的投资回报周期。目前，根据已经经营的这段时间来预判，网鱼的电竞酒店投资回报周期能够控制在30多个月。如果大家了解酒店这个行业，一家酒店的投资回报周期在4年到5年都是比较健康的。在网鱼电竞方面，第一我们刚刚进入者，我们也在尝试，我们也在不断了解市场的状况，包括竞争对手。同样的，我们对这个产品还是有一定的信心，在这个频道上面能够做的更好。30家，今年下半年主要聚焦上海。张维：大家可以想想，显然咖啡不是星巴克发明的，但是在星巴克进入中国之前，中国人不怎么喝咖啡，那时候不是没有咖啡，那时候有咖啡，也有雀巢，还有日式咖啡，有本地咖啡，但是做的不够好。当这些咖啡店做的不够，大家印象的是中国人不怎么喝咖啡。直到星巴克做的确实够好，体验不一样，然后就变成中国人喝咖啡。现在大家不再议论中国人是不是喝咖啡这个问题。已经很明显了。但是在星巴克之前，中国人似乎不怎么喝咖啡。就像喜茶之前，也没有说中国人不一定喝奶茶，以前也有奶茶，广东也有、香港也有，但不是全国的现象，奶茶也不成为生活一部分。直到有像喜茶、奈雪等，做的够好，够有品牌，质量够稳定，够有形象之后，才变成一个生活现象。好像最近5年，奶茶变成生活的必需品，相信5年之前不是必需品。就像星巴克进入中国之前，咖啡不是中国人民的生活必需品。Q：第一个，关于营收方面的问题，去年各个行业都受到疫情影响，在今年上半年，网鱼网咖营收回到2019年之前的水平了吗？第二个，之前采访过你们的公司高管，提到可能会降低网吧一半的成本，现在网鱼在这方面发展怎么样？董寅鸣：说到营收，疫情从去年开始到目前为止，还没有完全恢复。的确，对实体行业有非常大的冲击。好处是，在这个时期，我们也在做自己的反思和复盘，未来到底该怎么走。其中有一个结论，也是在去年年中的时候，我们自己做的一个调整，我们觉得还是需要更注重用户的体验，上网游戏的体验。所以我们在去年开始，针对存量店，包括新店，都有一个调整。门店的配置要提升，门店的环境要改造，像这家店。现在有很多店，都会追求单人包房、双人包房和相应的包房比例，因为我们发现用户在这部分有需求。一部分有自己相应的封闭的隐私，还有环境的要求，清洁的要求，包房方面能够满足用户的需求。一个是配置的部分，一个是店态的部分。还有更注重于用户服务体验，大家进来可以感受到门店清洁卫生，还有同学们微笑，亲切的接待等。通过这方面的变革，今年上半年所开的所有店，收入都特别好。因为我们的门槛要求高了，所以用户体验也好，用户进入我们门店的人次，包括消费金额也会更高，他们更认可这个高端的设备，更认可我们的环境，更认可我们的体验。客观来说，因为我说的是公司整体，但是我们有一千家门店，有些店的配置很快，环境很不错，用户体验也很好，所以整个展现非常好。但是有些门店因为设备还是相比较整个市场来看，有点旧，或者设备需要做升级。所以在这块，我们从这个数据去说服加盟商，要求他们尽快去把门店的设备配置进一步做升级。接下来，给到整个网吧也好，网鱼也好，整个RTX30系列配置显卡更多以后，要求更多门店做设备升级，从而给用户更好的体验。云游戏，我们一直在关注，我们知道，在市场上有很多公司在做这方面做投入。比如说和我们内部在做这方面的创新尝试，也有和顺网合作。这部分我们也在密切关注，甚至有些店也跟对方做小范围的合作。这个技术，我们觉得未来会越来越成熟，此时此刻目前阶段还有待提升空间。但是这个方向，很多公司觉得非常不错，所以我们也期待未来技术的成熟，能够给到用户游戏的体验没有任何差异的情况下，才更有信心把这个技术导入到网吧或者电竞行业。Q：第一个问题，关于电竞酒店的装修风格有个性化定制还是统一标准？我考虑到统一标准，相当于普通酒店加上电脑。第二个问题，网鱼网咖一直是中国电竞合作提升的，这次成立网鱼电竞是为了做自己的赛道，还是说通过自己的布局去挖掘新的选手，很多草根选手是没有站队，直接接触到，但是网鱼体量很大，全国各地都有，你们是最先能接触到的。第三个问题，我30几岁不大去网咖，RTX最根本的东西是光线追踪，而且光线追踪绝大部分都是海外游戏，网鱼网咖现在已经有海外游戏能够玩到，还是有计划做？董寅鸣： 第一个问题，电竞酒店，目前开的三家店，客观来说，都是从之前的电竞酒店翻牌过来的，我们做了一些设备升级，人员输送去做门店运营管理。整个装修改变并不是非常大，但是就发现效益提升很高。第一用户有需求，第二我们还没有在店态的风格设计部分做进一步推进情况下，已经达到这样的成果，所以我们对未来更有信心。我们目前针对每家电竞酒店的风格，目前正在做设计，也召集了外部专业的设计师一起主攻这块。具体未来是一个风格，还是根据不同的店有不同的风格，敬请期待。第二个问题，电竞合作。因为今天有很多网鱼市场部赛事的同学，电竞除了给用户设备方面的体验，还有一个，也是网鱼网咖之前的优势，有一个网鱼竞技场，举办了差不多有10年的一个赛事，是我们一直在运营的一个赛事IP。2019年全年有26万人次来参与网鱼竞技场。竞技场有两方面，因为我们跟腾讯、网易、暴雪这些游戏厂商合作非常好，他们要落地的很多赛事活动，第一肯定要找网鱼网咖，城市争霸赛、高校联赛等，也有很多都是网鱼独家举办。所以我们也是通过这些赛事能够吸引到更多用户，能够加入网鱼，来参与这些活动，来参与比赛，然后提升自己的竞技水平。或者跟我的同学朋友因为有这些赛事，聚集到某一个网吧网咖，来玩一下相应的活动。所以我们在网鱼电竞这个角度，未来包括电竞酒店也是一样，相应的资源会更多的分配在网鱼电竞和电竞酒店，让更多的电竞游戏爱好者能够通过到我们门店来，到我们酒店来，运用到高端的设备配置以后，一起来玩相应的游戏。Q：NVIDIA本身是全球化的公司，像网吧这类文化在亚洲本身有一个特别性。NVIDIA在网吧布局，对于中国来说，是很重要的业务。在全球的战略布局上，NVIDIA是怎么看的？NVIDIA和网吧有更好合作和支持，帮助网吧打造哪些资源？张维：首先，中国占NV全球的业务比例相当大，NV中国绝对是NV全球的第一大市场，比美国市场、西欧市场大得多，中国市场可能比整个南美北美加在一起生意都大，所以中国市场对NV来讲，是非常重要的一个生意。这是第一。第二，有些你看到的文化现象或者用户现象，从表面上看是独特的。但是其中如果抽取背后的逻辑，比如说我们跟总部领导是这么抽象网吧业主，网吧业主需求，他们需要一个企业级IT的稳定性，但是他们只愿意付一个消费者的钱，但是需要拿到企业IT的稳定性，这就是网吧业主。当你把这个事情抽象到这个逻辑的时候，就是有一群人，这群人只愿意付消费者的价钱，但是需要企业级IT的稳定性，这就是网吧业务。某个网吧有50台80台机器并不够大，但是把中国的网吧业主加在一起有8、9百万台的机器，每三年更新，每年都是三四百万台，加在一起这就是大企业，就是大企业需求，要足够的稳定性、可靠性，他们买了这个是用来赚钱的，不是用来玩的。他们有一个升级周期。而且他们的预算就是消费者的预算。这些事情说清楚，逻辑抽象清楚，无论他是一个白人，是一个黑人，是一个拉丁裔还是印度裔的工程师，他都能听懂。一个产品经理都能搞清楚，他满足这个需求，做产品就是了。从我们公司来讲，支持网吧业务，我们没有感觉到有任何文化上的问题。新浪声明：新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":149820685,"gmtCreate":1625715669947,"gmtModify":1631893592651,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149820685","repostId":"1195805799","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149815550,"gmtCreate":1625714184770,"gmtModify":1631893592661,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"小鹏第一","listText":"小鹏第一","text":"小鹏第一","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149815550","repostId":"2149122083","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2149122083","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625712190,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2149122083?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-08 10:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"天天拍车：小鹏、蔚来二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了特斯拉","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149122083","media":"TechWeb.com.cn","summary":"数据显示，小鹏、蔚来二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了特斯拉。报告指出，6月主要新能源品牌竞价热度榜单中，TOP5品牌，国产品牌赶超国外品牌，小鹏、蔚来获得冠亚军，特斯拉、威马、北汽新能源分别位列3-5名。同时，分类车型三年保值率冠军榜中，日系车型占据大半席位。6月新能源二手车品牌成交均价排名中，特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏分列前三名。","content":"<html><body><article><p>7月8日消息，日前，天天拍车对外发布《6月二手车在线拍卖数据报告》。报告主要包含6月二手车成交概览和新能源二手车两大部分，主要从车主画像、品牌成交量、保值率等进行盘点。数据显示，小鹏、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210708104256997v235n50lm10v7bh\"/><p>报告显示，在6月的品牌成交量排行榜上，大众、别克、日产的二手车成交量位列前三，福特和雪佛兰紧随其后。据介绍，品牌保有量和消费者关注度是二手车品牌成交量高的主要因素。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210708104302588v235bqgz35n2jyt\"/><p>报告指出，6月主要新能源品牌竞价热度榜单中，TOP5品牌，国产品牌赶超国外品牌，小鹏、蔚来获得冠亚军，特斯拉、威马、北汽新能源分别位列3-5名。</p><p>同时，分类车型三年保值率冠军榜中，日系车型占据大半席位。由于稀缺性的优势，雷克萨斯LX、丰田埃尔法的保值率较为突出，其中雷克萨斯LX三年保值率高达111%。</p><p>天天拍车数据显示，6月最高成交价达285万元，成交车辆为一台2年车龄的奔驰G级AMG。竞价热度最高的二手车是一台10年车龄的本田CR-V，该车在最终成交之前经过了全国买家114次的激烈竞价。6月最远成交距离1920公里，通过天天拍车的二手车在线拍卖平台，全国买家竞价，这位深圳的车主将车卖给了北京的买家。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210708104310379v235jy1bxv31u2p\"/><p>报告显示，区别于燃油车成交车龄和里程主要在8年、10万公里以上，新能源二手车交易车龄和成交里程出现了不小反差，分别是3年、3万公里以下。之所以两者换车周期分布不同，是因为新能源产品技术迭代日新月异，年居多，而年轻人猎奇的心态驱使换车的节奏相对于传统燃油车更快。</p><p>另外，从保值率这个维度来看，特斯拉Model X、丰田卡罗拉双擎分别夺取纯电动、混合动力二手车三年保值率冠军。6月新能源二手车品牌成交均价排名中，特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏分列前三名。二手车成交均价主要受到新车指导价、品牌、保有量等因素影响。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n天天拍车：小鹏、蔚来二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了特斯拉\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-08 10:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021070810431078874588&s=b><strong>TechWeb.com.cn</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月8日消息，日前，天天拍车对外发布《6月二手车在线拍卖数据报告》。报告主要包含6月二手车成交概览和新能源二手车两大部分，主要从车主画像、品牌成交量、保值率等进行盘点。数据显示，小鹏、蔚来二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了特斯拉。报告显示，在6月的品牌成交量排行榜上，大众、别克、日产的二手车成交量位列前三，福特和雪佛兰紧随其后。据介绍，品牌保有量和消费者关注度是二手车品牌成交量高的主要因素。报告指出，6...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021070810431078874588&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e9aa56586a03fdd6464e21bfe99f7b5","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉","09868":"小鹏汽车-W"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021070810431078874588&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2149122083","content_text":"7月8日消息，日前，天天拍车对外发布《6月二手车在线拍卖数据报告》。报告主要包含6月二手车成交概览和新能源二手车两大部分，主要从车主画像、品牌成交量、保值率等进行盘点。数据显示，小鹏、蔚来二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了特斯拉。报告显示，在6月的品牌成交量排行榜上，大众、别克、日产的二手车成交量位列前三，福特和雪佛兰紧随其后。据介绍，品牌保有量和消费者关注度是二手车品牌成交量高的主要因素。报告指出，6月主要新能源品牌竞价热度榜单中，TOP5品牌，国产品牌赶超国外品牌，小鹏、蔚来获得冠亚军，特斯拉、威马、北汽新能源分别位列3-5名。同时，分类车型三年保值率冠军榜中，日系车型占据大半席位。由于稀缺性的优势，雷克萨斯LX、丰田埃尔法的保值率较为突出，其中雷克萨斯LX三年保值率高达111%。天天拍车数据显示，6月最高成交价达285万元，成交车辆为一台2年车龄的奔驰G级AMG。竞价热度最高的二手车是一台10年车龄的本田CR-V，该车在最终成交之前经过了全国买家114次的激烈竞价。6月最远成交距离1920公里，通过天天拍车的二手车在线拍卖平台，全国买家竞价，这位深圳的车主将车卖给了北京的买家。报告显示，区别于燃油车成交车龄和里程主要在8年、10万公里以上，新能源二手车交易车龄和成交里程出现了不小反差，分别是3年、3万公里以下。之所以两者换车周期分布不同，是因为新能源产品技术迭代日新月异，年居多，而年轻人猎奇的心态驱使换车的节奏相对于传统燃油车更快。另外，从保值率这个维度来看，特斯拉Model X、丰田卡罗拉双擎分别夺取纯电动、混合动力二手车三年保值率冠军。6月新能源二手车品牌成交均价排名中，特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏分列前三名。二手车成交均价主要受到新车指导价、品牌、保有量等因素影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09868":1,"NIO":1,"TSLA":1,"XPEV":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":140388968,"gmtCreate":1625629616454,"gmtModify":1631893592675,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Right management","listText":"Right management","text":"Right 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buy👍","listText":"Strong buy👍","text":"Strong buy👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151725833","repostId":"1176914673","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159070704,"gmtCreate":1624933283308,"gmtModify":1633946808695,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The chart only show 3% that is higher PS and lower revenue growth. Where to find the 90%?","listText":"The chart only show 3% that is higher PS and lower revenue growth. Where to find the 90%?","text":"The chart only show 3% that is higher PS and lower revenue growth. Where to find the 90%?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159070704","repostId":"1105982179","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1105982179","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624889210,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105982179?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 22:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: The Mass Exodus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105982179","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir conti","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Short interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.</li>\n <li>Even though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with shorting the stock.</li>\n <li>The stock could rally further.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16279727ada0c46eb4d43744da02d1cc\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Palantir's (PLTR) shares are up 20% in the last month alone but the rally could still continue. Latest data reveals that short interest in Palantir declined by 23.8% in the latest cycle alone. This suggests that a broad swath of market participants isn't buying into the bearish narratives surrounding the company, perceive its stock to be fairly valued and perhaps even anticipate it to rally going forward. This development should come across as an encouraging sign for the company's long-side investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.</p>\n<p><b>The Data</b></p>\n<p>I'd like to start by explaining the term \"short interest\" for the uninitiated. It's essentially the total number of short positions that are open against any given stock. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that traders grew bearish on the concerned company, and actively initiated short positions against it. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that traders actively wound up their short positions either perhaps because they anticipate the stock to bottom out and/or rally going forward. So, the short interest is a useful tool to gauge the Street's ever-evolving market sentiment.</p>\n<p>In Palantir's case, its short interest at the end of the latest data cycle stood at 52.3 million, sharply down by 23.8% on a sequential basis. Although Palantir's short interest figure isn't at its all-time low yet, the pace of its recent decline, however, is certainly one of the fastest in the company's brief history since its direct listing last year. For the record, Palantir has over 1.8 billion shares outstanding which means that about 2.8% of its entire share total had been shorted. Also, the short interest data is for the cycle spanning from early June to mid-June, and the data wasreleasedon Thursday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95e4623fda1d9079a2699b57d4ee0f42\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Next, I wanted to confirm if other software application companies also registered a sharp reduction in their short interest figures, or was Palantir an anomaly in its peer group. So, to get a broader perspective on its industry, I pulled the short interest figures for about 100 software application stocks listed in the US. Interestingly, 55% of these stocks registered a net reduction in their short interest figures, of varying magnitudes of course, which points to an industry-wide short unwinding.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091feec9aa17f821d01f34a7b46bb2bb\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"506\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Wsj.com)</span></p>\n<p>Moreover, the median short interest decline was 1.9%, whereas Palantir's short interest declined by a far more significant 23.8% during the same data cycle. In fact, there were just 6 other stocks in our study group, which saw their short interest decline in excess of 23.8%. This conclusively shows that market participants were far too active with unwinding their short positions in Palantir.</p>\n<p>But this leads us to an important question - why are market participants so cautious with shorting Palantir in the first place?</p>\n<p><b>Cautious for Good Reason</b></p>\n<p>As I've explained in my prior articles, Palantir has several initiatives at play which could collectively catapult its growth in 2021-22. These initiatives include itstransitionto a customer-friendly payment model to boost commercial sales, offeringfree trialsto major companies to expand its sales funnel and expanding itssales teamto revamp its outbound marketing function. We won't be discussing the same points again to avoid being repetitive, but the takeaway here is that since Palantir is undertaking several growth initiatives, it makes for a risky short bet for the time being at least.</p>\n<p>But don't take my word for it.</p>\n<p>The community of professional analysts is realizing Palantir's growth potential and raising their revenue estimates for its current fiscal year. They've raised their FY21 revenue estimates by about 5% so far since mid-January and there's no telling how many of such upward revenue revisions are still in store for the remainder of Palantir's FY21. This bullish uncertainty presents an unfavorable risk-reward ratio for short-side market participants and explains why short interest in Palantir continues to decline.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74bccdf90ceb880c1a3edddad8743a1e\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>There's another point to consider here, that nobody seems to be talking about. Palantir has won several COVID-19 tracking-related contracts (such ashere,here,here,hereandhere) over the last 12 - 15 months as government agencies across the globe grappled to control the spread and tried to better manage their resources. With COVID-19 said to be making a fierce comeback with thedelta variant, I contend that Palantir could experience a similar order windfall this year, from proactive government agencies, which could boost the company's government sales along the way.</p>\n<p>Lastly, several commenters argue that Palantir's shares are trading at a premium and are due for a sharp correction. Its shares are trading at about 34-times trailing twelve-month sales so it's understandable why many might think that the stock is overvalued. But I believe the problem with this approach is that we're not factoring in industry-wide trading multiples or Palantir's revenue growth rate, compared to its peers.</p>\n<p>So, to put things in perspective, I compiled the revenue growth rates and price-to-sales (or P/S) multiples for over 320 software infrastructure and software application stocks that are currently listed on US exchanges. Next, I benchmarked these industry groups based on Palantir's revenue growth rate and its P/S multiple. As it turns out, over 90% of Palantir's peers have a slower revenue growth and/or are trading at higher trading multiples. This suggests that Palantir's higher pace of growth justifies its price premium and that the bearish concerns regarding its valuations, are exaggerated.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fefb171f61438817b747d6a50fff8133\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>(Source: Business Quant.com)</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>I'd like to point to readers that fluctuations in short interest figures don't always impact the underlying stock prices. This data is based on short positions that were open at a prior cut-off date and investors with a long-term time horizon should, at best, use it to corroborate their bull or bear thesis.</p>\n<p>Having said that, if the bearish narratives surrounding Palantir held any merit, or posed a legitimate risk to its share price, a broad swath of market participants would've actively shorted the stock to profit off of this near-certain eventuality. But that didn't happen and its short interest declined instead, that too by a significant amount.</p>\n<p>This active short unwinding indicates that market participants are uncomfortable in shorting the stock at current levels. This should come across as a reassuring sign for the company's long-side shareholders. The stock seems to be fairly valued and has the potential to rally further. Good Luck!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: The Mass Exodus</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: The Mass Exodus\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 22:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105982179","content_text":"Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with shorting the stock.\nThe stock could rally further.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nPalantir's (PLTR) shares are up 20% in the last month alone but the rally could still continue. Latest data reveals that short interest in Palantir declined by 23.8% in the latest cycle alone. This suggests that a broad swath of market participants isn't buying into the bearish narratives surrounding the company, perceive its stock to be fairly valued and perhaps even anticipate it to rally going forward. This development should come across as an encouraging sign for the company's long-side investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.\nThe Data\nI'd like to start by explaining the term \"short interest\" for the uninitiated. It's essentially the total number of short positions that are open against any given stock. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that traders grew bearish on the concerned company, and actively initiated short positions against it. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that traders actively wound up their short positions either perhaps because they anticipate the stock to bottom out and/or rally going forward. So, the short interest is a useful tool to gauge the Street's ever-evolving market sentiment.\nIn Palantir's case, its short interest at the end of the latest data cycle stood at 52.3 million, sharply down by 23.8% on a sequential basis. Although Palantir's short interest figure isn't at its all-time low yet, the pace of its recent decline, however, is certainly one of the fastest in the company's brief history since its direct listing last year. For the record, Palantir has over 1.8 billion shares outstanding which means that about 2.8% of its entire share total had been shorted. Also, the short interest data is for the cycle spanning from early June to mid-June, and the data wasreleasedon Thursday.\n\nNext, I wanted to confirm if other software application companies also registered a sharp reduction in their short interest figures, or was Palantir an anomaly in its peer group. So, to get a broader perspective on its industry, I pulled the short interest figures for about 100 software application stocks listed in the US. Interestingly, 55% of these stocks registered a net reduction in their short interest figures, of varying magnitudes of course, which points to an industry-wide short unwinding.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Wsj.com)\nMoreover, the median short interest decline was 1.9%, whereas Palantir's short interest declined by a far more significant 23.8% during the same data cycle. In fact, there were just 6 other stocks in our study group, which saw their short interest decline in excess of 23.8%. This conclusively shows that market participants were far too active with unwinding their short positions in Palantir.\nBut this leads us to an important question - why are market participants so cautious with shorting Palantir in the first place?\nCautious for Good Reason\nAs I've explained in my prior articles, Palantir has several initiatives at play which could collectively catapult its growth in 2021-22. These initiatives include itstransitionto a customer-friendly payment model to boost commercial sales, offeringfree trialsto major companies to expand its sales funnel and expanding itssales teamto revamp its outbound marketing function. We won't be discussing the same points again to avoid being repetitive, but the takeaway here is that since Palantir is undertaking several growth initiatives, it makes for a risky short bet for the time being at least.\nBut don't take my word for it.\nThe community of professional analysts is realizing Palantir's growth potential and raising their revenue estimates for its current fiscal year. They've raised their FY21 revenue estimates by about 5% so far since mid-January and there's no telling how many of such upward revenue revisions are still in store for the remainder of Palantir's FY21. This bullish uncertainty presents an unfavorable risk-reward ratio for short-side market participants and explains why short interest in Palantir continues to decline.\n\nThere's another point to consider here, that nobody seems to be talking about. Palantir has won several COVID-19 tracking-related contracts (such ashere,here,here,hereandhere) over the last 12 - 15 months as government agencies across the globe grappled to control the spread and tried to better manage their resources. With COVID-19 said to be making a fierce comeback with thedelta variant, I contend that Palantir could experience a similar order windfall this year, from proactive government agencies, which could boost the company's government sales along the way.\nLastly, several commenters argue that Palantir's shares are trading at a premium and are due for a sharp correction. Its shares are trading at about 34-times trailing twelve-month sales so it's understandable why many might think that the stock is overvalued. But I believe the problem with this approach is that we're not factoring in industry-wide trading multiples or Palantir's revenue growth rate, compared to its peers.\nSo, to put things in perspective, I compiled the revenue growth rates and price-to-sales (or P/S) multiples for over 320 software infrastructure and software application stocks that are currently listed on US exchanges. Next, I benchmarked these industry groups based on Palantir's revenue growth rate and its P/S multiple. As it turns out, over 90% of Palantir's peers have a slower revenue growth and/or are trading at higher trading multiples. This suggests that Palantir's higher pace of growth justifies its price premium and that the bearish concerns regarding its valuations, are exaggerated.\n(Source: Business Quant.com)\nFinal Thoughts\nI'd like to point to readers that fluctuations in short interest figures don't always impact the underlying stock prices. This data is based on short positions that were open at a prior cut-off date and investors with a long-term time horizon should, at best, use it to corroborate their bull or bear thesis.\nHaving said that, if the bearish narratives surrounding Palantir held any merit, or posed a legitimate risk to its share price, a broad swath of market participants would've actively shorted the stock to profit off of this near-certain eventuality. But that didn't happen and its short interest declined instead, that too by a significant amount.\nThis active short unwinding indicates that market participants are uncomfortable in shorting the stock at current levels. This should come across as a reassuring sign for the company's long-side shareholders. The stock seems to be fairly valued and has the potential to rally further. Good Luck!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150797048,"gmtCreate":1624927073084,"gmtModify":1631891020025,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. Still undervalue?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. Still undervalue?&nbsp;","text":"$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$ why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. Still undervalue?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150797048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124408630,"gmtCreate":1624776402120,"gmtModify":1633948697749,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Invest the undervalue and just wait.&nbsp;","listText":"Invest the undervalue and just wait.&nbsp;","text":"Invest the undervalue and just wait.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124408630","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167307556,"gmtCreate":1624245529375,"gmtModify":1634008952469,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"护城河涨价能力没那么强","listText":"护城河涨价能力没那么强","text":"护城河涨价能力没那么强","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167307556","repostId":"2145027197","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2145027197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624235792,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2145027197?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 08:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"海底捞市值四个月蒸发超2400亿港元 掌门人张勇痛失“新加坡首富”之位","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145027197","media":"新浪财经综合","summary":"截至6月18日港股收盘，海底捞报39.5港元，总市值2094亿。相对于今年2月15日，海底捞股价涨至85.8港元，总市值超过4500亿港元，短短四个月，市值蒸发超2400亿港元。但近几个月，海底捞股价暴跌不止，张勇也失去了“新加坡首富”之位。海底捞表示，受疫情防控影响，海底捞从2020年1月26日起暂停中国大陆地区所有门店的营业，于3月12日逐步重新开放门店。疫情期间海底捞持续推进开店计划，业务扩张导致成本大增。","content":"<html><body><article><p>原标题：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">海底捞</a>市值四个月蒸发超2400亿港元 掌门人张勇痛失“新加坡首富”之位</p><p>长江商报消息●长江商报记者 曾思嶒</p><p>海底捞（06862.HK）曾凭借其“无微不至”的服务走红，并迅速成为“火锅第一股”，但近四个月其股价暴跌，掌门人张勇也失去“新加坡首富”之位。</p><p>张勇曾将海底捞定位于大众品牌，并提倡越便宜越好。“高端餐饮不赚钱，有些品牌做得很精致，花了很多钱，请了很多明星，都知道它很高级，但真正赚钱的，比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">麦当劳</a>，其实就是大众品牌的东西。”</p><p>而实际上，外界普遍观点是，让海底捞名声大噪的，不是性价比，而是服务。但张勇却不这么认为，他认为海底捞之所以强大、所向披靡，核心竞争力是他独创的、能激发员工创意、热情、积极性的一套人力资源体系，这是海底捞自己摸索尝试出来的，也是餐饮行业所独有的。</p><p>但这种商业逻辑也有弊端，在口味方面，海底捞越来越多的评价集中在“味道一般”、“不难吃”等等，基本上丧失了餐饮行业最核心的竞争力。截至6月18日港股收盘，海底捞报39.5港元，<span>总市值</span>2094亿。相对于今年2月15日，海底捞股价涨至85.8港元，总市值超过4500亿港元，短短四个月，市值蒸发超2400亿港元。</p><p>靠服务杀出重围</p><p>四川从来不缺美食，海底捞的成功绝非偶然。</p><p>作为一个底层出生的“川娃子”，张勇早些年曾在拖拉机厂打工，后来走南闯北寻找商机，开了火锅店。对于商业，张勇有自己独特的见解。</p><p>张勇把宝押在了“服务”上，海底捞在业内广为流传的服务包括帮人带孩子、拎包、擦鞋，客人的所有需求都一一满足。客人抱怨喝酒伤了胃，就熬一锅小米粥。客人夸奖辣椒酱好吃，就送客人几罐。在当时，很多饭店还没有树立起“服务意识”，因此，海底捞给顾客们留下了非常深刻的印象。逐渐地，凭借周到服务带来的好口碑，海底捞的名气越来越大，不愁没有顾客上门。</p><p>除了对顾客贴心服务以外，发展壮大后的海底捞，对自家员工也关怀到位。张勇提倡让员工们感受到“家”的感觉，让员工拥有“归属感”。在生活方面，海底捞员工宿舍配套齐全，在薪资方面，张勇引入一套人性化的KPI管理体系。在试点门店，员工每传一个菜，就能拿到一个小圆塑料片，计一件收入，这样每接到一个顾客，员工就有提成。在同行业里，海底捞员工薪酬高于同行业10%，离职率维持在在10%以下。</p><p>张勇曾如此概括海底捞的核心价值观——“双手改变命运”。“餐饮是一个完全竞争的行业，消费者体验至关重要。顾客满意度是由员工来保证和实现的。所以，我们确立了‘双手改变命运’的核心理念来凝聚员工。想借此传达的是，只要我们遵循勤奋、敬业、诚信的信条，我们的双手是可以改变一些东西的。员工接受这个理念，就是认可我们的企业，就会发自内心地对顾客付出。”</p><p>在大部分火锅店还在经历开店关店的经营阵痛期时，海底捞靠服务制胜，开店红遍大江南北，甚至把火锅店开到国外，如新加坡、美国等。</p><p>弄丢“新加坡首富”之位</p><p>2018年海底捞在港股上市，张勇的身价也随之水涨船高。当年10月，张勇、舒萍两位新加坡籍夫妇以550亿元人民币的财富位居2018年胡润百富榜第34位。2019年8月29日，《福布斯亚洲》杂志发布最新的新加坡50大富豪榜，张勇以138亿（约192亿新元）美元净资产登上榜首，成新加坡新首富。</p><p>但近几个月，海底捞股价暴跌不止，张勇也失去了“新加坡首富”之位。</p><p>对于股价下跌的原因，海底捞将其归结为疫情影响。今年3月，海底捞发布的2020年财报显示，2020年公司<span>净利润</span>为3.09亿元，同比2019年下降86.8%，营收286.14亿，同比仅增长7.75%，而相比2015年-2019年，海底捞营收复合增长率达到46.55%，增速明显放缓。</p><p>海底捞表示，受疫情防控影响，海底捞从2020年1月26日起暂停中国大陆地区所有门店的营业，于3月12日逐步重新开放门店。2020年上半年因疫情亏损9.65亿元。</p><p>市场普遍认为，疫情影响是主要原因，但也暴露出海底捞对市场环境反应不足，甚至是管理体制上的短板。在去年疫情爆发后，海底捞被网友吐槽：店里菜品价钱比以前高很多，一部分菜品上涨5%，有的甚至超过了28%。除了“暗中”涨价，屡次曝光的食品质量问题，也让海底捞的形象大打折扣。</p><p>在张勇的规划里，赚大众门店的钱，意味着需要不断扩张开更多的门店。疫情期间海底捞持续推进开店计划，业务扩张导致成本大增。原材料及易耗品从2019年的112.39亿元增至2020年122.62亿元，增长9.1%；员工成本从79.92亿元增至96.77亿元，增长21.1%；折旧及摊销从18.913亿元上升至30.34亿元，增幅达60.4%；财务成本从2.37亿元上升至4.46亿元，增幅达88.2%。</p><p>此外，其物业、厂房和设备——也就是各类<span>非流动资产</span>快速增加，从2019年的76.9亿元涨至2020年的120.64亿元。</p><p>如今，川味火锅、重庆火锅、铜锅涮肉、潮汕牛肉锅、鱼火锅等赛道越分越细，越来越多的新火锅品牌在市场上崛起，巴奴、德庄、蜀大侠等火锅品牌以差异化特色受到欢迎。与之相对应的，海底捞龙头地位受到威胁，标准化服务模式受到抨击，“过度化”服务是否还会被当代年轻人买单？市场后续会给出答案。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 08:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021062108363779c89426&s=b><strong>新浪财经综合</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：海底捞市值四个月蒸发超2400亿港元 掌门人张勇痛失“新加坡首富”之位长江商报消息●长江商报记者 曾思嶒海底捞（06862.HK）曾凭借其“无微不至”的服务走红，并迅速成为“火锅第一股”，但近四个月其股价暴跌，掌门人张勇也失去“新加坡首富”之位。张勇曾将海底捞定位于大众品牌，并提倡越便宜越好。“高端餐饮不赚钱，有些品牌做得很精致，花了很多钱，请了很多明星，都知道它很高级，但真正赚钱的，比如...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021062108363779c89426&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e3dd8956fa22cf4293bef1416fad3d1","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","06862":"海底捞"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021062108363779c89426&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2145027197","content_text":"原标题：海底捞市值四个月蒸发超2400亿港元 掌门人张勇痛失“新加坡首富”之位长江商报消息●长江商报记者 曾思嶒海底捞（06862.HK）曾凭借其“无微不至”的服务走红，并迅速成为“火锅第一股”，但近四个月其股价暴跌，掌门人张勇也失去“新加坡首富”之位。张勇曾将海底捞定位于大众品牌，并提倡越便宜越好。“高端餐饮不赚钱，有些品牌做得很精致，花了很多钱，请了很多明星，都知道它很高级，但真正赚钱的，比如星巴克、麦当劳，其实就是大众品牌的东西。”而实际上，外界普遍观点是，让海底捞名声大噪的，不是性价比，而是服务。但张勇却不这么认为，他认为海底捞之所以强大、所向披靡，核心竞争力是他独创的、能激发员工创意、热情、积极性的一套人力资源体系，这是海底捞自己摸索尝试出来的，也是餐饮行业所独有的。但这种商业逻辑也有弊端，在口味方面，海底捞越来越多的评价集中在“味道一般”、“不难吃”等等，基本上丧失了餐饮行业最核心的竞争力。截至6月18日港股收盘，海底捞报39.5港元，总市值2094亿。相对于今年2月15日，海底捞股价涨至85.8港元，总市值超过4500亿港元，短短四个月，市值蒸发超2400亿港元。靠服务杀出重围四川从来不缺美食，海底捞的成功绝非偶然。作为一个底层出生的“川娃子”，张勇早些年曾在拖拉机厂打工，后来走南闯北寻找商机，开了火锅店。对于商业，张勇有自己独特的见解。张勇把宝押在了“服务”上，海底捞在业内广为流传的服务包括帮人带孩子、拎包、擦鞋，客人的所有需求都一一满足。客人抱怨喝酒伤了胃，就熬一锅小米粥。客人夸奖辣椒酱好吃，就送客人几罐。在当时，很多饭店还没有树立起“服务意识”，因此，海底捞给顾客们留下了非常深刻的印象。逐渐地，凭借周到服务带来的好口碑，海底捞的名气越来越大，不愁没有顾客上门。除了对顾客贴心服务以外，发展壮大后的海底捞，对自家员工也关怀到位。张勇提倡让员工们感受到“家”的感觉，让员工拥有“归属感”。在生活方面，海底捞员工宿舍配套齐全，在薪资方面，张勇引入一套人性化的KPI管理体系。在试点门店，员工每传一个菜，就能拿到一个小圆塑料片，计一件收入，这样每接到一个顾客，员工就有提成。在同行业里，海底捞员工薪酬高于同行业10%，离职率维持在在10%以下。张勇曾如此概括海底捞的核心价值观——“双手改变命运”。“餐饮是一个完全竞争的行业，消费者体验至关重要。顾客满意度是由员工来保证和实现的。所以，我们确立了‘双手改变命运’的核心理念来凝聚员工。想借此传达的是，只要我们遵循勤奋、敬业、诚信的信条，我们的双手是可以改变一些东西的。员工接受这个理念，就是认可我们的企业，就会发自内心地对顾客付出。”在大部分火锅店还在经历开店关店的经营阵痛期时，海底捞靠服务制胜，开店红遍大江南北，甚至把火锅店开到国外，如新加坡、美国等。弄丢“新加坡首富”之位2018年海底捞在港股上市，张勇的身价也随之水涨船高。当年10月，张勇、舒萍两位新加坡籍夫妇以550亿元人民币的财富位居2018年胡润百富榜第34位。2019年8月29日，《福布斯亚洲》杂志发布最新的新加坡50大富豪榜，张勇以138亿（约192亿新元）美元净资产登上榜首，成新加坡新首富。但近几个月，海底捞股价暴跌不止，张勇也失去了“新加坡首富”之位。对于股价下跌的原因，海底捞将其归结为疫情影响。今年3月，海底捞发布的2020年财报显示，2020年公司净利润为3.09亿元，同比2019年下降86.8%，营收286.14亿，同比仅增长7.75%，而相比2015年-2019年，海底捞营收复合增长率达到46.55%，增速明显放缓。海底捞表示，受疫情防控影响，海底捞从2020年1月26日起暂停中国大陆地区所有门店的营业，于3月12日逐步重新开放门店。2020年上半年因疫情亏损9.65亿元。市场普遍认为，疫情影响是主要原因，但也暴露出海底捞对市场环境反应不足，甚至是管理体制上的短板。在去年疫情爆发后，海底捞被网友吐槽：店里菜品价钱比以前高很多，一部分菜品上涨5%，有的甚至超过了28%。除了“暗中”涨价，屡次曝光的食品质量问题，也让海底捞的形象大打折扣。在张勇的规划里，赚大众门店的钱，意味着需要不断扩张开更多的门店。疫情期间海底捞持续推进开店计划，业务扩张导致成本大增。原材料及易耗品从2019年的112.39亿元增至2020年122.62亿元，增长9.1%；员工成本从79.92亿元增至96.77亿元，增长21.1%；折旧及摊销从18.913亿元上升至30.34亿元，增幅达60.4%；财务成本从2.37亿元上升至4.46亿元，增幅达88.2%。此外，其物业、厂房和设备——也就是各类非流动资产快速增加，从2019年的76.9亿元涨至2020年的120.64亿元。如今，川味火锅、重庆火锅、铜锅涮肉、潮汕牛肉锅、鱼火锅等赛道越分越细，越来越多的新火锅品牌在市场上崛起，巴奴、德庄、蜀大侠等火锅品牌以差异化特色受到欢迎。与之相对应的，海底捞龙头地位受到威胁，标准化服务模式受到抨击，“过度化”服务是否还会被当代年轻人买单？市场后续会给出答案。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"06862":1,"09988":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":164132519,"gmtCreate":1624178867531,"gmtModify":1634009740876,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Be the lemming with life jacket","listText":"Be the lemming with life jacket","text":"Be the lemming with life jacket","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164132519","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184725005,"gmtCreate":1623726276307,"gmtModify":1634029491461,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这是从Aswath damodaran 的部落格翻译的文章","listText":"这是从Aswath damodaran 的部落格翻译的文章","text":"这是从Aswath damodaran 的部落格翻译的文章","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184725005","repostId":"1118790986","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118790986","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有料，有趣，有深度。由董秘、CFO、投行和基金经理等一线从业人员组建的专业市值管理公众号，专注于解读中国资本市场最典型的并购重组、最血腥的股权战争和最脑洞大开的财务舞弊。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"市值风云","id":"43","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f9d4dad6ffc401f8c85b4d6b0210c3a"},"pubTimestamp":1623648821,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118790986?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:33","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"通货膨胀与投资，虚惊一场还是公平预警？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118790986","media":"市值风云","summary":"黄金和房地产是对冲通胀最好的两种资产，其中房地产在对冲预期通胀方面表现相对较好，黄金在抵御意外通胀方面做得更好。\n\n随着我们接近2021年中期，到目前为止金融市场在很大程度上表现相当不错。\n从美国股市","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>黄金和房地产是对冲通胀最好的两种资产，其中房地产在对冲预期通胀方面表现相对较好，黄金在抵御意外通胀方面做得更好。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>随着我们接近2021年中期，到目前为止金融市场在很大程度上表现相当不错。</p>\n<p>从美国股市来看，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数分别较年初上涨约11%和5%。后者的表现不佳，引发了一系列关于价值股在经历了为期十年跑输成长股之后是否重新崛起的报道。</p>\n<p>这十年里，市场在与两股相互竞争的力量角力，一是经济增长快于预期，起到了利好作用；二是担心这种增长会带来更高的通胀和利率，起到了利空作用。</p>\n<p>随着通货膨胀重新回到市场意识中，人们就我们所看到的较高的通货膨胀是暂时的还是永久性的，以及如果是永久性的，它们将如何在金融市场上发挥作用展开了激烈的讨论。</p>\n<p><b>一、美国通货膨胀史</b></p>\n<p>不同的通货膨胀指标即使在同一时期也会产生不同的值，这主要是由衡量的层面（消费者、生产者）、商品和服务篮子的定义方式以及如何收集和汇总价格决定的。</p>\n<p>在下图中，我查看了美国通胀的四种衡量标准。</p>\n<p>前两个指标是城市消费者价格指数（CPI），一个是自1913年以来公布的没有经过季节性调整的指数，另一个是自1948年以来公布的经过季节性调整的指数。</p>\n<p>第三个是生产者价格指数（PPI），其中商品和服务的价格变化是在生产者层面衡量的。第四个是GDP价格平减指数，根据BEA对名义和实际GDP的估计值计算得出。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4d4a06e22cb93123e4cfa58dae7ede0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"795\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>可以看出，四种通胀指标高度相关，至少从历史上看，没有迹象表明一种指标可以系统地提供高于或低于其他指标的价值。</p>\n<p>PPI确实显示出比其他价格指数更大的波动性，但也没有迹象表明它或任何其他指标领先于其他指标。</p>\n<p>在四项指标都有数据的70年中，有两个突出时期。</p>\n<p>通货膨胀最高是在在1970年代，并蔓延到1980年代的头几年，那是美国最接近面临通胀失控的时刻，后面我们将研究这一时期的投资表现。</p>\n<p>通货膨胀率最低是在过去十年（2010-19年）中，2020年继续保持低通货膨胀率。</p>\n<p><b>二、通货膨胀和价值</b></p>\n<p>这一节我们讨论通货膨胀对资产价值的影响。首先从固定收益证券开始，追踪预期通胀和意外通胀对价值的影响，然后转向更复杂的股票案例，以及它们如何受到预期通胀和意外通胀的影响。</p>\n<p><b>（一）通货膨胀和固定收益证券</b></p>\n<p>要了解通货膨胀如何影响固定收益债券的价值，我们首先要认识到，在固定收益证券中，买方对预先指定的现金流量具有合同要求，并且现金流量是名义上的。</p>\n<p>因此，预期通胀和意外通胀以非常不同的方式影响债券购买者：</p>\n<p><b>1、预期通胀</b></p>\n<p>在债券合约开始时，债券的买方在决定债券的票面利率时会考虑当时的预期通胀。因此，如果预期通货膨胀率为5%，那么理性的债券购买者将要求比预期通货膨胀率为3%时高得多的利率。</p>\n<p><b>2、意外通胀</b></p>\n<p>在合同创建和债券发行之后，债券买卖双方都面临实际通货膨胀的风险，该通货膨胀可能高于或低于债券发行时的预期通胀。</p>\n<p>如果实际通胀低于预期通胀，债券利率将下降，债券价格将上涨。相反，如果实际通胀高于预期，利率将上升，债券价格将下降。</p>\n<p>债券购买者从债券中获得的回报有两个组成部分，一个是包含发行债券时预期通胀的票息部分，另一个是与意外通胀成反比的价格升值部分。</p>\n<p><b>通胀价值主张1：在通胀低于预期的时期，国债收益率会受到价格上涨的推动，而在通胀高于预期的时期，国债收益率会受到价格贬值的拖累。</b></p>\n<p>对于公司债券，通货膨胀将产生与无违约债券或国债相同的直接后果，而且还有一个额外的因素在起作用。</p>\n<p>随着通胀高于预期，企业借款利率将会上升，而这些较高的利率可能会增加所有企业借款人的违约风险。这种更高的风险可能表现为更高的债券违约利差，压低公司债券价格，给公司债券持有人带来额外的痛苦。</p>\n<p><b>通胀价值主张2：在通胀高于（低于）预期的时期，企业违约风险会增加（降低），导致企业债券回报落后（领先）国债回报。</b></p>\n<p><b>（二）通货膨胀和股票</b></p>\n<p>为了理解通货膨胀如何影响股票价值，请看如下的企业价值的驱动因素图。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dd2ff4d56647c542eff97b564e9e0a3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>嵌入在这张图片中的预期通胀和意外通胀，均可以通过多种途径影响企业价值。</p>\n<p><b>1、利率</b></p>\n<p>通货膨胀和股票价值之间最直接的联系是通过无风险利率（利率）形成的，该利率构成了投资者投资公司股票和借钱所需的预期回报的基础。如果通胀高于预期，你会预期利率将会上升，从而推高股票投资者和贷方所要求的回报。</p>\n<p><b>2、风险溢价和违约风险</b></p>\n<p>通货膨胀本身对股票风险溢价没有直接影响，但高通胀水平会导致未来通货膨胀的更多不确定性却是事实。</p>\n<p>因此，随着通货膨胀的增加，股票风险溢价将趋于增加。高于预期的通胀对违约利差的影响更为直观，反映了通胀上升、利率上升时利息支出会更高的现实，而这些更大的利息支出可能会产生更高的违约风险。</p>\n<p><b>3、收入增长率</b></p>\n<p>随着通货膨胀率的上升，所有公司都将有更多的涨价自由，但是具有定价权的公司，拥有更强大的竞争地位，将比没有定价权的公司更容易在顾客抵制涨价的生意中经营。</p>\n<p>因此，当通胀上升时，前者的涨价将能够超过通胀率，而后者的提价将滞后于通胀。</p>\n<p><b>4、营业利润率</b></p>\n<p>如果收入和成本都以通货膨胀率上升，利润率应该不会受到通货膨胀变化的影响，但这种情况很少见。</p>\n<p>对于成本对高通胀敏感而收入不太敏感的公司，利润率将随着通胀上升而下降。相反，对于成本对通胀不敏感的公司，随着通货膨胀的上升，收入可以迅速增加利润。</p>\n<p><b>5、税收</b></p>\n<p>在世界大部分地区，税法都是以名义形式编写的，当通货膨胀上升时，公司支付的有效税率可能会发生变化。</p>\n<p>例如税法的一个方面，允许公司随着时间的推移对建筑和设备的投资进行折旧，但只能根据最初投资于这些资产的金额进行折旧。随着通货膨胀率上升，这种贬值带来的税收收益将减少，从而有效地提高了税率。</p>\n<p>最重要的是，高于预期的通胀将对不同公司产生不同的影响，有些受益，有些不受影响，有些则损失价值。</p>\n<p><b>通胀价值主张3：在通胀高于（低于）预期的时期，个别公司可能受益、不受影响或受到通胀的伤害，这取决于通胀的好处（更高的收入增长和利润率）是否大于、等于或低于意外通胀的成本（更高的无风险利率、更高的风险溢价、更高的违约利差和更高的税收）。</b></p>\n<p>虽然个别公司可能会从更高的通胀中受益，但更高的通胀如何影响整体股票的问题仍是一个悬而未决的问题。</p>\n<p>假设公司总体上能够提供足够高的收入增长以匹配无风险利率的增长，并且保费保持不变，但仍然会受到风险溢价、失败风险和有效税收增加的拖累。</p>\n<p>高于预期的通胀总体上可能对股票有利的唯一情况是，通胀上升伴随着总收益的超常增长，并且远远超过通胀效应的影响。</p>\n<p><b>通胀价值主张4：由于投资者难以重新评估风险溢价，企业也试图调整产品定价和成本结构，以应对更高的通胀率，因此出人意料的高通胀通常会对市场造成净负效应，至少在预期重置之前是如此。</b></p>\n<p><b>三、通货膨胀与投资</b></p>\n<p>理论上，从直觉上讲，高于预期的通胀会对国债不利，对公司债更不利，对个股有利、不利或中性。</p>\n<p>然而，真理来源于数据，在本节中，我将回顾近100年的历史，看看不同资产类别在应对预期通胀和意外通胀时的实际表现。</p>\n<p><b>（一）通货膨胀、股票和债券回报</b></p>\n<p>为了评估股票和债券如何受到通货膨胀的影响，我从股票（以标准普尔500指数为代表）、国债（以10年固定期限债券为代表）和公司债券（以Baa10年期公司债券为代表）回报的历史数据入手。</p>\n<p>为了衡量通货膨胀，我使用了未针对季节性因素进行调整的CPI，因为它是整个时间段内唯一可用的通货膨胀序列，为了估计意外的通货膨胀，我使用了一个简单的指标：</p>\n<p>意外通胀=t年的通胀-（t-1至t-10年的平均通胀）</p>\n<p>我将这些系列汇总在下图中：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb984f95113aac3bb0c834be04522d36\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"783\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>由于在这个图表中不能检测到明显的规律，因此我将数据按十年细分，并按十年查看股票、国债和公司债券的年度名义回报和实际回报：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09928302d2d9e5e02db01c13ea83e9a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从年度实际回报来看，随着2008年金融危机熔解了整整十年的收益，2000-2009年这个时间段成为股票最糟糕的10年，第二糟糕的十年是1970年-1979年，这段时期的意外通胀最高。</p>\n<p>对于国债，最糟糕的两个十年分别是1940年代和1970年代，这两个十年都是意外通胀最高的十年，而最好的十年是1980年代。</p>\n<p>对于公司债券，唯一出现负实际回报的十年是1970年代，而且同期国债和股票业绩受到的影响更大。</p>\n<p>透过通货膨胀更深入地研究股票，特别是20世纪两个广泛报道的现象，小盘股表现优于大盘股，以及低PB股票回报高于高PB股票：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc1a402bb0bfb3e834895cdfb10546ba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此表中的数据存在过度解读的风险，但低PB股票最好的30年是1940-49、1970-79和1980-89，这30年通胀率很高，其中20年通胀率远远高于预期。</p>\n<p>相反，价值股跑输成长股的几十年是1990-99年和2010-19年，当时通货膨胀率远低于预期。</p>\n<p>小盘股溢价与通货膨胀之间没有发现联系，无论是预期通胀还是意外通胀。</p>\n<p>简而言之，对于那些在过去十年中一直徘徊在投资荒野中的价值投资者来说，通胀回升可能带来向低PE和PBV股票倾斜的一线希望。</p>\n<p><b>（二）通货膨胀、黄金和房地产</b></p>\n<p>黄金是抵御通胀的终极工具，这是投资常识的一部分。哈维和埃尔布指出，在很长一段时间内（数百年），黄金保持其购买力，并有效地以通货膨胀率增长。</p>\n<p>没有哪个资产类别比房地产更能抵御通胀波动，这也是投资常识的一部分。</p>\n<p>为了检查这些常识背后的数据，我将黄金回报率（使用伦敦定盘价的黄金价格）和房地产回报率（使用罗伯特·席勒的房价数据库）作为通货膨胀的函数。</p>\n<p>请注意，随着1970年以来金本位制的有效废除，黄金价格才可用。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ff987a1e920bb72af79aaa5565f507\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"783\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>虽然你可以看到1970年代黄金价格的飙升并将其与该时期的高通胀联系起来，但我按十年划分研究了黄金和房地产的名义和实际回报，就像我研究股票一样：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fcc45a00ae07760b49daa18e4ddfd9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>黄金显然在1970年代取得了成功的十年，但它在2000-09年股市处于困境期间也表现良好，而且在2020年发挥了避险资产的作用。</p>\n<p>房地产在1970年代的名义回报率很稳定，在那十年中，回报率达到并超过通胀，但名义回报率和实际回报率最佳的十年是2000-09年，尽管在这十年结束时房地产崩盘抹去了大部分复合收益。</p>\n<p><b>（三）通货膨胀、收藏品和加密货币</b></p>\n<p>对于担心金融资产崩溃的投资者来说，藏身之处相对较少，但随着时间的推移，一些人开始寻求艺术品和收藏品的庇护，认为毕加索比股票更有可能保护你抵御通胀。</p>\n<p>在过去的十年中，年轻的投资者也开始寻找加密货币，他们认为加密货币的设计在数量上有着严格的限制，应该能让加密货币更好地储存价值。正是因为这个原因，有些人认为比特币是千禧一代的黄金，但它是否能很好地发挥这一作用尚无定论。</p>\n<p>如果黄金在历史上扮演的角色一直是为了躲避高通胀和市场危机，那么问题就变成了比特币是否也能扮演这一角色。</p>\n<p><b>去年，我确实检查了比特币和以太币在这一年中的表现，并得出结论，至少在2020年，比特币和以太币的表现不像收藏品，而更像高风险股票。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c57fb32a5ef0e4e07868e7f4a168165f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>显然，这只是一段历史，比特币和以太币在未来的危机中有可能表现得更好。关于意外的高通胀将如何影响加密货币的问题很难得出结论，因为加密货币只存在了十几年多一点的时间，且在此期间通胀处于历史低点。</p>\n<p><b>（四）躲避通胀？</b></p>\n<p>在研究了过去股票、债券、房地产和黄金如何随着预期通胀和意外通胀而变动后，我使用这些资产类别的逐年数据来估计与预期通胀和意外通胀的相关性。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce85b1215cf0d44d94bcdca4a2c4ecbe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这张表很好地说明了通货膨胀和资产回报的综合情况。</p>\n<p>仅有的两种同时随预期通胀和意外通胀而变动的资产类别都是黄金和房地产，尽管这种联动的相当一部分可以用1970年代来解释。虽然房地产是一种更好的对冲预期通胀的工具，但黄金在抵御意外通胀方面做得更好。</p>\n<p>受通胀影响最严重的资产类别是国债和公司债券，但意外通胀造成的损害远大于预期通胀。</p>\n<p>股票和预期通胀几乎不相关，但股票与意外通胀的相关性为负，尽管比债券表现出的弱且在统计上不显著。</p>\n<p>最后，虽然通胀较高时价值溢价更大，但结果在统计上并不显着，这表明其他力量在该溢价消失的过程中发挥了更大的作用。</p>\n<p>是否有一些行业比其他行业更能抵御通胀？为了研究这个问题，我研究了广泛的行业分类，并结合通胀数据估计了几十年来的年回报率：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af5aae56b68b504f55f48cd45ae1cf31\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>唯一似乎与通胀有关的行业是能源，它不仅在1970年代随着油价飙升而表现出色，而且在另一个高通胀十年1940年代也表现出色，但在2010年至2019年期间表现不佳，因为通胀降至历史水平低点。</p>\n<p>由于通胀是货币特有的，因此还有另一种途径可以保护通胀，但只有在通货膨胀仅限于美国的情况下才可行。</p>\n<p>如果其他国家的通货膨胀率仍然较低，无论是因为他们有更谨慎的央行行长，或者因为他们的经济仍然疲软，你可以预期他们的货币相对于美元将升值，并且他们的股票和债券市场表现不佳。</p>\n<p>但鉴于世界各地的央行行长行为都很相似，我不敢肯定我会押注于这种可能性。</p>\n<p><b>四、现在怎么办？</b></p>\n<p>你可以就这篇文章提出自己的结论，但这里是我们立场的总结：</p>\n<p><b>1、通胀又回来了</b></p>\n<p>毫无疑问，我们现在看到的通胀率比近十年更高，包括报告数据（CPI、PPI和GDP平减指数）、通胀预期（来自国债市场和调查）和商品市场。</p>\n<p><b>2、不清楚它是暂时的还是永久性的</b></p>\n<p>投资者和央行之间的争论是，通胀飙升是否反映了经济停摆带来的复苏，一旦形势稳定下来，经济停摆是会消失，还是将在过去十年中异常低通胀的基础上永久性增长。恐怕只有时间才能回答这个问题。</p>\n<p>如果今年夏天经济走强，通胀继续超过预期，我认为答案就在我们面前。</p>\n<p><b>3、回归正常</b></p>\n<p>如果部分或全部通胀上升是永久性的，并且我们正在恢复到更正常的通胀水平（2-3%），那么随着利率上升和股票价格重新调整，故事将会有一个调整，甚至可能是痛苦的。</p>\n<p>你仍然可以找到更有能力应对更高通胀的股票板块，大宗商品公司和具有显著定价能力的公司比其他市场拥有更好的价值。</p>\n<p><b>4、突破的可能性很大</b></p>\n<p>如果它是永久性的，并且我们看到通货膨胀率上升到1970年代和1980年代以来的最高水平（&gt;5%），股票和债券将不得不大幅重新定价。</p>\n<p>投资者不仅需要将资金从金融资产转移到实物资产和收藏品中，而且根据当前的低利率选择较多借贷的公司和个人也将面临违约风险清算。</p>\n<p><b>5、美联储必须做好准备</b></p>\n<p>美联储理应走在通胀游戏的前面。由于通胀上升到危险水平的可能性是不小的，在我看来，美联储无论如何都应该停止谈论通胀可控和利率保持低位的乐观情绪。</p>\n<p>对于那些急于否定通货膨胀的人来说，请记住，通货膨胀是阴险狡猾的，在可控的情况下是良性的，但在不可控的情况下，却是一种破坏性的力量，是一个应该放在瓶子里的妖怪。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n通货膨胀与投资，虚惊一场还是公平预警？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/43\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f9d4dad6ffc401f8c85b4d6b0210c3a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">市值风云 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-14 13:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n <b>黄金和房地产是对冲通胀最好的两种资产，其中房地产在对冲预期通胀方面表现相对较好，黄金在抵御意外通胀方面做得更好。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>随着我们接近2021年中期，到目前为止金融市场在很大程度上表现相当不错。</p>\n<p>从美国股市来看，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数分别较年初上涨约11%和5%。后者的表现不佳，引发了一系列关于价值股在经历了为期十年跑输成长股之后是否重新崛起的报道。</p>\n<p>这十年里，市场在与两股相互竞争的力量角力，一是经济增长快于预期，起到了利好作用；二是担心这种增长会带来更高的通胀和利率，起到了利空作用。</p>\n<p>随着通货膨胀重新回到市场意识中，人们就我们所看到的较高的通货膨胀是暂时的还是永久性的，以及如果是永久性的，它们将如何在金融市场上发挥作用展开了激烈的讨论。</p>\n<p><b>一、美国通货膨胀史</b></p>\n<p>不同的通货膨胀指标即使在同一时期也会产生不同的值，这主要是由衡量的层面（消费者、生产者）、商品和服务篮子的定义方式以及如何收集和汇总价格决定的。</p>\n<p>在下图中，我查看了美国通胀的四种衡量标准。</p>\n<p>前两个指标是城市消费者价格指数（CPI），一个是自1913年以来公布的没有经过季节性调整的指数，另一个是自1948年以来公布的经过季节性调整的指数。</p>\n<p>第三个是生产者价格指数（PPI），其中商品和服务的价格变化是在生产者层面衡量的。第四个是GDP价格平减指数，根据BEA对名义和实际GDP的估计值计算得出。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4d4a06e22cb93123e4cfa58dae7ede0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"795\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>可以看出，四种通胀指标高度相关，至少从历史上看，没有迹象表明一种指标可以系统地提供高于或低于其他指标的价值。</p>\n<p>PPI确实显示出比其他价格指数更大的波动性，但也没有迹象表明它或任何其他指标领先于其他指标。</p>\n<p>在四项指标都有数据的70年中，有两个突出时期。</p>\n<p>通货膨胀最高是在在1970年代，并蔓延到1980年代的头几年，那是美国最接近面临通胀失控的时刻，后面我们将研究这一时期的投资表现。</p>\n<p>通货膨胀率最低是在过去十年（2010-19年）中，2020年继续保持低通货膨胀率。</p>\n<p><b>二、通货膨胀和价值</b></p>\n<p>这一节我们讨论通货膨胀对资产价值的影响。首先从固定收益证券开始，追踪预期通胀和意外通胀对价值的影响，然后转向更复杂的股票案例，以及它们如何受到预期通胀和意外通胀的影响。</p>\n<p><b>（一）通货膨胀和固定收益证券</b></p>\n<p>要了解通货膨胀如何影响固定收益债券的价值，我们首先要认识到，在固定收益证券中，买方对预先指定的现金流量具有合同要求，并且现金流量是名义上的。</p>\n<p>因此，预期通胀和意外通胀以非常不同的方式影响债券购买者：</p>\n<p><b>1、预期通胀</b></p>\n<p>在债券合约开始时，债券的买方在决定债券的票面利率时会考虑当时的预期通胀。因此，如果预期通货膨胀率为5%，那么理性的债券购买者将要求比预期通货膨胀率为3%时高得多的利率。</p>\n<p><b>2、意外通胀</b></p>\n<p>在合同创建和债券发行之后，债券买卖双方都面临实际通货膨胀的风险，该通货膨胀可能高于或低于债券发行时的预期通胀。</p>\n<p>如果实际通胀低于预期通胀，债券利率将下降，债券价格将上涨。相反，如果实际通胀高于预期，利率将上升，债券价格将下降。</p>\n<p>债券购买者从债券中获得的回报有两个组成部分，一个是包含发行债券时预期通胀的票息部分，另一个是与意外通胀成反比的价格升值部分。</p>\n<p><b>通胀价值主张1：在通胀低于预期的时期，国债收益率会受到价格上涨的推动，而在通胀高于预期的时期，国债收益率会受到价格贬值的拖累。</b></p>\n<p>对于公司债券，通货膨胀将产生与无违约债券或国债相同的直接后果，而且还有一个额外的因素在起作用。</p>\n<p>随着通胀高于预期，企业借款利率将会上升，而这些较高的利率可能会增加所有企业借款人的违约风险。这种更高的风险可能表现为更高的债券违约利差，压低公司债券价格，给公司债券持有人带来额外的痛苦。</p>\n<p><b>通胀价值主张2：在通胀高于（低于）预期的时期，企业违约风险会增加（降低），导致企业债券回报落后（领先）国债回报。</b></p>\n<p><b>（二）通货膨胀和股票</b></p>\n<p>为了理解通货膨胀如何影响股票价值，请看如下的企业价值的驱动因素图。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dd2ff4d56647c542eff97b564e9e0a3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>嵌入在这张图片中的预期通胀和意外通胀，均可以通过多种途径影响企业价值。</p>\n<p><b>1、利率</b></p>\n<p>通货膨胀和股票价值之间最直接的联系是通过无风险利率（利率）形成的，该利率构成了投资者投资公司股票和借钱所需的预期回报的基础。如果通胀高于预期，你会预期利率将会上升，从而推高股票投资者和贷方所要求的回报。</p>\n<p><b>2、风险溢价和违约风险</b></p>\n<p>通货膨胀本身对股票风险溢价没有直接影响，但高通胀水平会导致未来通货膨胀的更多不确定性却是事实。</p>\n<p>因此，随着通货膨胀的增加，股票风险溢价将趋于增加。高于预期的通胀对违约利差的影响更为直观，反映了通胀上升、利率上升时利息支出会更高的现实，而这些更大的利息支出可能会产生更高的违约风险。</p>\n<p><b>3、收入增长率</b></p>\n<p>随着通货膨胀率的上升，所有公司都将有更多的涨价自由，但是具有定价权的公司，拥有更强大的竞争地位，将比没有定价权的公司更容易在顾客抵制涨价的生意中经营。</p>\n<p>因此，当通胀上升时，前者的涨价将能够超过通胀率，而后者的提价将滞后于通胀。</p>\n<p><b>4、营业利润率</b></p>\n<p>如果收入和成本都以通货膨胀率上升，利润率应该不会受到通货膨胀变化的影响，但这种情况很少见。</p>\n<p>对于成本对高通胀敏感而收入不太敏感的公司，利润率将随着通胀上升而下降。相反，对于成本对通胀不敏感的公司，随着通货膨胀的上升，收入可以迅速增加利润。</p>\n<p><b>5、税收</b></p>\n<p>在世界大部分地区，税法都是以名义形式编写的，当通货膨胀上升时，公司支付的有效税率可能会发生变化。</p>\n<p>例如税法的一个方面，允许公司随着时间的推移对建筑和设备的投资进行折旧，但只能根据最初投资于这些资产的金额进行折旧。随着通货膨胀率上升，这种贬值带来的税收收益将减少，从而有效地提高了税率。</p>\n<p>最重要的是，高于预期的通胀将对不同公司产生不同的影响，有些受益，有些不受影响，有些则损失价值。</p>\n<p><b>通胀价值主张3：在通胀高于（低于）预期的时期，个别公司可能受益、不受影响或受到通胀的伤害，这取决于通胀的好处（更高的收入增长和利润率）是否大于、等于或低于意外通胀的成本（更高的无风险利率、更高的风险溢价、更高的违约利差和更高的税收）。</b></p>\n<p>虽然个别公司可能会从更高的通胀中受益，但更高的通胀如何影响整体股票的问题仍是一个悬而未决的问题。</p>\n<p>假设公司总体上能够提供足够高的收入增长以匹配无风险利率的增长，并且保费保持不变，但仍然会受到风险溢价、失败风险和有效税收增加的拖累。</p>\n<p>高于预期的通胀总体上可能对股票有利的唯一情况是，通胀上升伴随着总收益的超常增长，并且远远超过通胀效应的影响。</p>\n<p><b>通胀价值主张4：由于投资者难以重新评估风险溢价，企业也试图调整产品定价和成本结构，以应对更高的通胀率，因此出人意料的高通胀通常会对市场造成净负效应，至少在预期重置之前是如此。</b></p>\n<p><b>三、通货膨胀与投资</b></p>\n<p>理论上，从直觉上讲，高于预期的通胀会对国债不利，对公司债更不利，对个股有利、不利或中性。</p>\n<p>然而，真理来源于数据，在本节中，我将回顾近100年的历史，看看不同资产类别在应对预期通胀和意外通胀时的实际表现。</p>\n<p><b>（一）通货膨胀、股票和债券回报</b></p>\n<p>为了评估股票和债券如何受到通货膨胀的影响，我从股票（以标准普尔500指数为代表）、国债（以10年固定期限债券为代表）和公司债券（以Baa10年期公司债券为代表）回报的历史数据入手。</p>\n<p>为了衡量通货膨胀，我使用了未针对季节性因素进行调整的CPI，因为它是整个时间段内唯一可用的通货膨胀序列，为了估计意外的通货膨胀，我使用了一个简单的指标：</p>\n<p>意外通胀=t年的通胀-（t-1至t-10年的平均通胀）</p>\n<p>我将这些系列汇总在下图中：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb984f95113aac3bb0c834be04522d36\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"783\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>由于在这个图表中不能检测到明显的规律，因此我将数据按十年细分，并按十年查看股票、国债和公司债券的年度名义回报和实际回报：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09928302d2d9e5e02db01c13ea83e9a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从年度实际回报来看，随着2008年金融危机熔解了整整十年的收益，2000-2009年这个时间段成为股票最糟糕的10年，第二糟糕的十年是1970年-1979年，这段时期的意外通胀最高。</p>\n<p>对于国债，最糟糕的两个十年分别是1940年代和1970年代，这两个十年都是意外通胀最高的十年，而最好的十年是1980年代。</p>\n<p>对于公司债券，唯一出现负实际回报的十年是1970年代，而且同期国债和股票业绩受到的影响更大。</p>\n<p>透过通货膨胀更深入地研究股票，特别是20世纪两个广泛报道的现象，小盘股表现优于大盘股，以及低PB股票回报高于高PB股票：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc1a402bb0bfb3e834895cdfb10546ba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此表中的数据存在过度解读的风险，但低PB股票最好的30年是1940-49、1970-79和1980-89，这30年通胀率很高，其中20年通胀率远远高于预期。</p>\n<p>相反，价值股跑输成长股的几十年是1990-99年和2010-19年，当时通货膨胀率远低于预期。</p>\n<p>小盘股溢价与通货膨胀之间没有发现联系，无论是预期通胀还是意外通胀。</p>\n<p>简而言之，对于那些在过去十年中一直徘徊在投资荒野中的价值投资者来说，通胀回升可能带来向低PE和PBV股票倾斜的一线希望。</p>\n<p><b>（二）通货膨胀、黄金和房地产</b></p>\n<p>黄金是抵御通胀的终极工具，这是投资常识的一部分。哈维和埃尔布指出，在很长一段时间内（数百年），黄金保持其购买力，并有效地以通货膨胀率增长。</p>\n<p>没有哪个资产类别比房地产更能抵御通胀波动，这也是投资常识的一部分。</p>\n<p>为了检查这些常识背后的数据，我将黄金回报率（使用伦敦定盘价的黄金价格）和房地产回报率（使用罗伯特·席勒的房价数据库）作为通货膨胀的函数。</p>\n<p>请注意，随着1970年以来金本位制的有效废除，黄金价格才可用。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ff987a1e920bb72af79aaa5565f507\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"783\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>虽然你可以看到1970年代黄金价格的飙升并将其与该时期的高通胀联系起来，但我按十年划分研究了黄金和房地产的名义和实际回报，就像我研究股票一样：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fcc45a00ae07760b49daa18e4ddfd9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>黄金显然在1970年代取得了成功的十年，但它在2000-09年股市处于困境期间也表现良好，而且在2020年发挥了避险资产的作用。</p>\n<p>房地产在1970年代的名义回报率很稳定，在那十年中，回报率达到并超过通胀，但名义回报率和实际回报率最佳的十年是2000-09年，尽管在这十年结束时房地产崩盘抹去了大部分复合收益。</p>\n<p><b>（三）通货膨胀、收藏品和加密货币</b></p>\n<p>对于担心金融资产崩溃的投资者来说，藏身之处相对较少，但随着时间的推移，一些人开始寻求艺术品和收藏品的庇护，认为毕加索比股票更有可能保护你抵御通胀。</p>\n<p>在过去的十年中，年轻的投资者也开始寻找加密货币，他们认为加密货币的设计在数量上有着严格的限制，应该能让加密货币更好地储存价值。正是因为这个原因，有些人认为比特币是千禧一代的黄金，但它是否能很好地发挥这一作用尚无定论。</p>\n<p>如果黄金在历史上扮演的角色一直是为了躲避高通胀和市场危机，那么问题就变成了比特币是否也能扮演这一角色。</p>\n<p><b>去年，我确实检查了比特币和以太币在这一年中的表现，并得出结论，至少在2020年，比特币和以太币的表现不像收藏品，而更像高风险股票。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c57fb32a5ef0e4e07868e7f4a168165f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>显然，这只是一段历史，比特币和以太币在未来的危机中有可能表现得更好。关于意外的高通胀将如何影响加密货币的问题很难得出结论，因为加密货币只存在了十几年多一点的时间，且在此期间通胀处于历史低点。</p>\n<p><b>（四）躲避通胀？</b></p>\n<p>在研究了过去股票、债券、房地产和黄金如何随着预期通胀和意外通胀而变动后，我使用这些资产类别的逐年数据来估计与预期通胀和意外通胀的相关性。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce85b1215cf0d44d94bcdca4a2c4ecbe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这张表很好地说明了通货膨胀和资产回报的综合情况。</p>\n<p>仅有的两种同时随预期通胀和意外通胀而变动的资产类别都是黄金和房地产，尽管这种联动的相当一部分可以用1970年代来解释。虽然房地产是一种更好的对冲预期通胀的工具，但黄金在抵御意外通胀方面做得更好。</p>\n<p>受通胀影响最严重的资产类别是国债和公司债券，但意外通胀造成的损害远大于预期通胀。</p>\n<p>股票和预期通胀几乎不相关，但股票与意外通胀的相关性为负，尽管比债券表现出的弱且在统计上不显著。</p>\n<p>最后，虽然通胀较高时价值溢价更大，但结果在统计上并不显着，这表明其他力量在该溢价消失的过程中发挥了更大的作用。</p>\n<p>是否有一些行业比其他行业更能抵御通胀？为了研究这个问题，我研究了广泛的行业分类，并结合通胀数据估计了几十年来的年回报率：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af5aae56b68b504f55f48cd45ae1cf31\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>唯一似乎与通胀有关的行业是能源，它不仅在1970年代随着油价飙升而表现出色，而且在另一个高通胀十年1940年代也表现出色，但在2010年至2019年期间表现不佳，因为通胀降至历史水平低点。</p>\n<p>由于通胀是货币特有的，因此还有另一种途径可以保护通胀，但只有在通货膨胀仅限于美国的情况下才可行。</p>\n<p>如果其他国家的通货膨胀率仍然较低，无论是因为他们有更谨慎的央行行长，或者因为他们的经济仍然疲软，你可以预期他们的货币相对于美元将升值，并且他们的股票和债券市场表现不佳。</p>\n<p>但鉴于世界各地的央行行长行为都很相似，我不敢肯定我会押注于这种可能性。</p>\n<p><b>四、现在怎么办？</b></p>\n<p>你可以就这篇文章提出自己的结论，但这里是我们立场的总结：</p>\n<p><b>1、通胀又回来了</b></p>\n<p>毫无疑问，我们现在看到的通胀率比近十年更高，包括报告数据（CPI、PPI和GDP平减指数）、通胀预期（来自国债市场和调查）和商品市场。</p>\n<p><b>2、不清楚它是暂时的还是永久性的</b></p>\n<p>投资者和央行之间的争论是，通胀飙升是否反映了经济停摆带来的复苏，一旦形势稳定下来，经济停摆是会消失，还是将在过去十年中异常低通胀的基础上永久性增长。恐怕只有时间才能回答这个问题。</p>\n<p>如果今年夏天经济走强，通胀继续超过预期，我认为答案就在我们面前。</p>\n<p><b>3、回归正常</b></p>\n<p>如果部分或全部通胀上升是永久性的，并且我们正在恢复到更正常的通胀水平（2-3%），那么随着利率上升和股票价格重新调整，故事将会有一个调整，甚至可能是痛苦的。</p>\n<p>你仍然可以找到更有能力应对更高通胀的股票板块，大宗商品公司和具有显著定价能力的公司比其他市场拥有更好的价值。</p>\n<p><b>4、突破的可能性很大</b></p>\n<p>如果它是永久性的，并且我们看到通货膨胀率上升到1970年代和1980年代以来的最高水平（&gt;5%），股票和债券将不得不大幅重新定价。</p>\n<p>投资者不仅需要将资金从金融资产转移到实物资产和收藏品中，而且根据当前的低利率选择较多借贷的公司和个人也将面临违约风险清算。</p>\n<p><b>5、美联储必须做好准备</b></p>\n<p>美联储理应走在通胀游戏的前面。由于通胀上升到危险水平的可能性是不小的，在我看来，美联储无论如何都应该停止谈论通胀可控和利率保持低位的乐观情绪。</p>\n<p>对于那些急于否定通货膨胀的人来说，请记住，通货膨胀是阴险狡猾的，在可控的情况下是良性的，但在不可控的情况下，却是一种破坏性的力量，是一个应该放在瓶子里的妖怪。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118790986","content_text":"黄金和房地产是对冲通胀最好的两种资产，其中房地产在对冲预期通胀方面表现相对较好，黄金在抵御意外通胀方面做得更好。\n\n随着我们接近2021年中期，到目前为止金融市场在很大程度上表现相当不错。\n从美国股市来看，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数分别较年初上涨约11%和5%。后者的表现不佳，引发了一系列关于价值股在经历了为期十年跑输成长股之后是否重新崛起的报道。\n这十年里，市场在与两股相互竞争的力量角力，一是经济增长快于预期，起到了利好作用；二是担心这种增长会带来更高的通胀和利率，起到了利空作用。\n随着通货膨胀重新回到市场意识中，人们就我们所看到的较高的通货膨胀是暂时的还是永久性的，以及如果是永久性的，它们将如何在金融市场上发挥作用展开了激烈的讨论。\n一、美国通货膨胀史\n不同的通货膨胀指标即使在同一时期也会产生不同的值，这主要是由衡量的层面（消费者、生产者）、商品和服务篮子的定义方式以及如何收集和汇总价格决定的。\n在下图中，我查看了美国通胀的四种衡量标准。\n前两个指标是城市消费者价格指数（CPI），一个是自1913年以来公布的没有经过季节性调整的指数，另一个是自1948年以来公布的经过季节性调整的指数。\n第三个是生产者价格指数（PPI），其中商品和服务的价格变化是在生产者层面衡量的。第四个是GDP价格平减指数，根据BEA对名义和实际GDP的估计值计算得出。\n\n可以看出，四种通胀指标高度相关，至少从历史上看，没有迹象表明一种指标可以系统地提供高于或低于其他指标的价值。\nPPI确实显示出比其他价格指数更大的波动性，但也没有迹象表明它或任何其他指标领先于其他指标。\n在四项指标都有数据的70年中，有两个突出时期。\n通货膨胀最高是在在1970年代，并蔓延到1980年代的头几年，那是美国最接近面临通胀失控的时刻，后面我们将研究这一时期的投资表现。\n通货膨胀率最低是在过去十年（2010-19年）中，2020年继续保持低通货膨胀率。\n二、通货膨胀和价值\n这一节我们讨论通货膨胀对资产价值的影响。首先从固定收益证券开始，追踪预期通胀和意外通胀对价值的影响，然后转向更复杂的股票案例，以及它们如何受到预期通胀和意外通胀的影响。\n（一）通货膨胀和固定收益证券\n要了解通货膨胀如何影响固定收益债券的价值，我们首先要认识到，在固定收益证券中，买方对预先指定的现金流量具有合同要求，并且现金流量是名义上的。\n因此，预期通胀和意外通胀以非常不同的方式影响债券购买者：\n1、预期通胀\n在债券合约开始时，债券的买方在决定债券的票面利率时会考虑当时的预期通胀。因此，如果预期通货膨胀率为5%，那么理性的债券购买者将要求比预期通货膨胀率为3%时高得多的利率。\n2、意外通胀\n在合同创建和债券发行之后，债券买卖双方都面临实际通货膨胀的风险，该通货膨胀可能高于或低于债券发行时的预期通胀。\n如果实际通胀低于预期通胀，债券利率将下降，债券价格将上涨。相反，如果实际通胀高于预期，利率将上升，债券价格将下降。\n债券购买者从债券中获得的回报有两个组成部分，一个是包含发行债券时预期通胀的票息部分，另一个是与意外通胀成反比的价格升值部分。\n通胀价值主张1：在通胀低于预期的时期，国债收益率会受到价格上涨的推动，而在通胀高于预期的时期，国债收益率会受到价格贬值的拖累。\n对于公司债券，通货膨胀将产生与无违约债券或国债相同的直接后果，而且还有一个额外的因素在起作用。\n随着通胀高于预期，企业借款利率将会上升，而这些较高的利率可能会增加所有企业借款人的违约风险。这种更高的风险可能表现为更高的债券违约利差，压低公司债券价格，给公司债券持有人带来额外的痛苦。\n通胀价值主张2：在通胀高于（低于）预期的时期，企业违约风险会增加（降低），导致企业债券回报落后（领先）国债回报。\n（二）通货膨胀和股票\n为了理解通货膨胀如何影响股票价值，请看如下的企业价值的驱动因素图。\n\n嵌入在这张图片中的预期通胀和意外通胀，均可以通过多种途径影响企业价值。\n1、利率\n通货膨胀和股票价值之间最直接的联系是通过无风险利率（利率）形成的，该利率构成了投资者投资公司股票和借钱所需的预期回报的基础。如果通胀高于预期，你会预期利率将会上升，从而推高股票投资者和贷方所要求的回报。\n2、风险溢价和违约风险\n通货膨胀本身对股票风险溢价没有直接影响，但高通胀水平会导致未来通货膨胀的更多不确定性却是事实。\n因此，随着通货膨胀的增加，股票风险溢价将趋于增加。高于预期的通胀对违约利差的影响更为直观，反映了通胀上升、利率上升时利息支出会更高的现实，而这些更大的利息支出可能会产生更高的违约风险。\n3、收入增长率\n随着通货膨胀率的上升，所有公司都将有更多的涨价自由，但是具有定价权的公司，拥有更强大的竞争地位，将比没有定价权的公司更容易在顾客抵制涨价的生意中经营。\n因此，当通胀上升时，前者的涨价将能够超过通胀率，而后者的提价将滞后于通胀。\n4、营业利润率\n如果收入和成本都以通货膨胀率上升，利润率应该不会受到通货膨胀变化的影响，但这种情况很少见。\n对于成本对高通胀敏感而收入不太敏感的公司，利润率将随着通胀上升而下降。相反，对于成本对通胀不敏感的公司，随着通货膨胀的上升，收入可以迅速增加利润。\n5、税收\n在世界大部分地区，税法都是以名义形式编写的，当通货膨胀上升时，公司支付的有效税率可能会发生变化。\n例如税法的一个方面，允许公司随着时间的推移对建筑和设备的投资进行折旧，但只能根据最初投资于这些资产的金额进行折旧。随着通货膨胀率上升，这种贬值带来的税收收益将减少，从而有效地提高了税率。\n最重要的是，高于预期的通胀将对不同公司产生不同的影响，有些受益，有些不受影响，有些则损失价值。\n通胀价值主张3：在通胀高于（低于）预期的时期，个别公司可能受益、不受影响或受到通胀的伤害，这取决于通胀的好处（更高的收入增长和利润率）是否大于、等于或低于意外通胀的成本（更高的无风险利率、更高的风险溢价、更高的违约利差和更高的税收）。\n虽然个别公司可能会从更高的通胀中受益，但更高的通胀如何影响整体股票的问题仍是一个悬而未决的问题。\n假设公司总体上能够提供足够高的收入增长以匹配无风险利率的增长，并且保费保持不变，但仍然会受到风险溢价、失败风险和有效税收增加的拖累。\n高于预期的通胀总体上可能对股票有利的唯一情况是，通胀上升伴随着总收益的超常增长，并且远远超过通胀效应的影响。\n通胀价值主张4：由于投资者难以重新评估风险溢价，企业也试图调整产品定价和成本结构，以应对更高的通胀率，因此出人意料的高通胀通常会对市场造成净负效应，至少在预期重置之前是如此。\n三、通货膨胀与投资\n理论上，从直觉上讲，高于预期的通胀会对国债不利，对公司债更不利，对个股有利、不利或中性。\n然而，真理来源于数据，在本节中，我将回顾近100年的历史，看看不同资产类别在应对预期通胀和意外通胀时的实际表现。\n（一）通货膨胀、股票和债券回报\n为了评估股票和债券如何受到通货膨胀的影响，我从股票（以标准普尔500指数为代表）、国债（以10年固定期限债券为代表）和公司债券（以Baa10年期公司债券为代表）回报的历史数据入手。\n为了衡量通货膨胀，我使用了未针对季节性因素进行调整的CPI，因为它是整个时间段内唯一可用的通货膨胀序列，为了估计意外的通货膨胀，我使用了一个简单的指标：\n意外通胀=t年的通胀-（t-1至t-10年的平均通胀）\n我将这些系列汇总在下图中：\n\n由于在这个图表中不能检测到明显的规律，因此我将数据按十年细分，并按十年查看股票、国债和公司债券的年度名义回报和实际回报：\n\n从年度实际回报来看，随着2008年金融危机熔解了整整十年的收益，2000-2009年这个时间段成为股票最糟糕的10年，第二糟糕的十年是1970年-1979年，这段时期的意外通胀最高。\n对于国债，最糟糕的两个十年分别是1940年代和1970年代，这两个十年都是意外通胀最高的十年，而最好的十年是1980年代。\n对于公司债券，唯一出现负实际回报的十年是1970年代，而且同期国债和股票业绩受到的影响更大。\n透过通货膨胀更深入地研究股票，特别是20世纪两个广泛报道的现象，小盘股表现优于大盘股，以及低PB股票回报高于高PB股票：\n\n此表中的数据存在过度解读的风险，但低PB股票最好的30年是1940-49、1970-79和1980-89，这30年通胀率很高，其中20年通胀率远远高于预期。\n相反，价值股跑输成长股的几十年是1990-99年和2010-19年，当时通货膨胀率远低于预期。\n小盘股溢价与通货膨胀之间没有发现联系，无论是预期通胀还是意外通胀。\n简而言之，对于那些在过去十年中一直徘徊在投资荒野中的价值投资者来说，通胀回升可能带来向低PE和PBV股票倾斜的一线希望。\n（二）通货膨胀、黄金和房地产\n黄金是抵御通胀的终极工具，这是投资常识的一部分。哈维和埃尔布指出，在很长一段时间内（数百年），黄金保持其购买力，并有效地以通货膨胀率增长。\n没有哪个资产类别比房地产更能抵御通胀波动，这也是投资常识的一部分。\n为了检查这些常识背后的数据，我将黄金回报率（使用伦敦定盘价的黄金价格）和房地产回报率（使用罗伯特·席勒的房价数据库）作为通货膨胀的函数。\n请注意，随着1970年以来金本位制的有效废除，黄金价格才可用。\n\n虽然你可以看到1970年代黄金价格的飙升并将其与该时期的高通胀联系起来，但我按十年划分研究了黄金和房地产的名义和实际回报，就像我研究股票一样：\n\n黄金显然在1970年代取得了成功的十年，但它在2000-09年股市处于困境期间也表现良好，而且在2020年发挥了避险资产的作用。\n房地产在1970年代的名义回报率很稳定，在那十年中，回报率达到并超过通胀，但名义回报率和实际回报率最佳的十年是2000-09年，尽管在这十年结束时房地产崩盘抹去了大部分复合收益。\n（三）通货膨胀、收藏品和加密货币\n对于担心金融资产崩溃的投资者来说，藏身之处相对较少，但随着时间的推移，一些人开始寻求艺术品和收藏品的庇护，认为毕加索比股票更有可能保护你抵御通胀。\n在过去的十年中，年轻的投资者也开始寻找加密货币，他们认为加密货币的设计在数量上有着严格的限制，应该能让加密货币更好地储存价值。正是因为这个原因，有些人认为比特币是千禧一代的黄金，但它是否能很好地发挥这一作用尚无定论。\n如果黄金在历史上扮演的角色一直是为了躲避高通胀和市场危机，那么问题就变成了比特币是否也能扮演这一角色。\n去年，我确实检查了比特币和以太币在这一年中的表现，并得出结论，至少在2020年，比特币和以太币的表现不像收藏品，而更像高风险股票。\n\n显然，这只是一段历史，比特币和以太币在未来的危机中有可能表现得更好。关于意外的高通胀将如何影响加密货币的问题很难得出结论，因为加密货币只存在了十几年多一点的时间，且在此期间通胀处于历史低点。\n（四）躲避通胀？\n在研究了过去股票、债券、房地产和黄金如何随着预期通胀和意外通胀而变动后，我使用这些资产类别的逐年数据来估计与预期通胀和意外通胀的相关性。\n\n这张表很好地说明了通货膨胀和资产回报的综合情况。\n仅有的两种同时随预期通胀和意外通胀而变动的资产类别都是黄金和房地产，尽管这种联动的相当一部分可以用1970年代来解释。虽然房地产是一种更好的对冲预期通胀的工具，但黄金在抵御意外通胀方面做得更好。\n受通胀影响最严重的资产类别是国债和公司债券，但意外通胀造成的损害远大于预期通胀。\n股票和预期通胀几乎不相关，但股票与意外通胀的相关性为负，尽管比债券表现出的弱且在统计上不显著。\n最后，虽然通胀较高时价值溢价更大，但结果在统计上并不显着，这表明其他力量在该溢价消失的过程中发挥了更大的作用。\n是否有一些行业比其他行业更能抵御通胀？为了研究这个问题，我研究了广泛的行业分类，并结合通胀数据估计了几十年来的年回报率：\n\n唯一似乎与通胀有关的行业是能源，它不仅在1970年代随着油价飙升而表现出色，而且在另一个高通胀十年1940年代也表现出色，但在2010年至2019年期间表现不佳，因为通胀降至历史水平低点。\n由于通胀是货币特有的，因此还有另一种途径可以保护通胀，但只有在通货膨胀仅限于美国的情况下才可行。\n如果其他国家的通货膨胀率仍然较低，无论是因为他们有更谨慎的央行行长，或者因为他们的经济仍然疲软，你可以预期他们的货币相对于美元将升值，并且他们的股票和债券市场表现不佳。\n但鉴于世界各地的央行行长行为都很相似，我不敢肯定我会押注于这种可能性。\n四、现在怎么办？\n你可以就这篇文章提出自己的结论，但这里是我们立场的总结：\n1、通胀又回来了\n毫无疑问，我们现在看到的通胀率比近十年更高，包括报告数据（CPI、PPI和GDP平减指数）、通胀预期（来自国债市场和调查）和商品市场。\n2、不清楚它是暂时的还是永久性的\n投资者和央行之间的争论是，通胀飙升是否反映了经济停摆带来的复苏，一旦形势稳定下来，经济停摆是会消失，还是将在过去十年中异常低通胀的基础上永久性增长。恐怕只有时间才能回答这个问题。\n如果今年夏天经济走强，通胀继续超过预期，我认为答案就在我们面前。\n3、回归正常\n如果部分或全部通胀上升是永久性的，并且我们正在恢复到更正常的通胀水平（2-3%），那么随着利率上升和股票价格重新调整，故事将会有一个调整，甚至可能是痛苦的。\n你仍然可以找到更有能力应对更高通胀的股票板块，大宗商品公司和具有显著定价能力的公司比其他市场拥有更好的价值。\n4、突破的可能性很大\n如果它是永久性的，并且我们看到通货膨胀率上升到1970年代和1980年代以来的最高水平（>5%），股票和债券将不得不大幅重新定价。\n投资者不仅需要将资金从金融资产转移到实物资产和收藏品中，而且根据当前的低利率选择较多借贷的公司和个人也将面临违约风险清算。\n5、美联储必须做好准备\n美联储理应走在通胀游戏的前面。由于通胀上升到危险水平的可能性是不小的，在我看来，美联储无论如何都应该停止谈论通胀可控和利率保持低位的乐观情绪。\n对于那些急于否定通货膨胀的人来说，请记住，通货膨胀是阴险狡猾的，在可控的情况下是良性的，但在不可控的情况下，却是一种破坏性的力量，是一个应该放在瓶子里的妖怪。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":190283156,"gmtCreate":1620623618275,"gmtModify":1634197591183,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不错的分析","listText":"不错的分析","text":"不错的分析","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190283156","repostId":"1126675182","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":357150480,"gmtCreate":1617249227740,"gmtModify":1631885037805,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"28nm 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in?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/671e2962f2c08b8756a2bbcb649f9b6d","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327760798","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150797048,"gmtCreate":1624927073084,"gmtModify":1631891020025,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. 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10:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"天天拍车：小鹏、蔚来二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了特斯拉","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149122083","media":"TechWeb.com.cn","summary":"数据显示，小鹏、蔚来二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了特斯拉。报告指出，6月主要新能源品牌竞价热度榜单中，TOP5品牌，国产品牌赶超国外品牌，小鹏、蔚来获得冠亚军，特斯拉、威马、北汽新能源分别位列3-5名。同时，分类车型三年保值率冠军榜中，日系车型占据大半席位。6月新能源二手车品牌成交均价排名中，特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏分列前三名。","content":"<html><body><article><p>7月8日消息，日前，天天拍车对外发布《6月二手车在线拍卖数据报告》。报告主要包含6月二手车成交概览和新能源二手车两大部分，主要从车主画像、品牌成交量、保值率等进行盘点。数据显示，小鹏、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210708104256997v235n50lm10v7bh\"/><p>报告显示，在6月的品牌成交量排行榜上，大众、别克、日产的二手车成交量位列前三，福特和雪佛兰紧随其后。据介绍，品牌保有量和消费者关注度是二手车品牌成交量高的主要因素。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210708104302588v235bqgz35n2jyt\"/><p>报告指出，6月主要新能源品牌竞价热度榜单中，TOP5品牌，国产品牌赶超国外品牌，小鹏、蔚来获得冠亚军，特斯拉、威马、北汽新能源分别位列3-5名。</p><p>同时，分类车型三年保值率冠军榜中，日系车型占据大半席位。由于稀缺性的优势，雷克萨斯LX、丰田埃尔法的保值率较为突出，其中雷克萨斯LX三年保值率高达111%。</p><p>天天拍车数据显示，6月最高成交价达285万元，成交车辆为一台2年车龄的奔驰G级AMG。竞价热度最高的二手车是一台10年车龄的本田CR-V，该车在最终成交之前经过了全国买家114次的激烈竞价。6月最远成交距离1920公里，通过天天拍车的二手车在线拍卖平台，全国买家竞价，这位深圳的车主将车卖给了北京的买家。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210708104310379v235jy1bxv31u2p\"/><p>报告显示，区别于燃油车成交车龄和里程主要在8年、10万公里以上，新能源二手车交易车龄和成交里程出现了不小反差，分别是3年、3万公里以下。之所以两者换车周期分布不同，是因为新能源产品技术迭代日新月异，年居多，而年轻人猎奇的心态驱使换车的节奏相对于传统燃油车更快。</p><p>另外，从保值率这个维度来看，特斯拉Model X、丰田卡罗拉双擎分别夺取纯电动、混合动力二手车三年保值率冠军。6月新能源二手车品牌成交均价排名中，特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏分列前三名。二手车成交均价主要受到新车指导价、品牌、保有量等因素影响。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n天天拍车：小鹏、蔚来二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了特斯拉\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-08 10:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021070810431078874588&s=b><strong>TechWeb.com.cn</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月8日消息，日前，天天拍车对外发布《6月二手车在线拍卖数据报告》。报告主要包含6月二手车成交概览和新能源二手车两大部分，主要从车主画像、品牌成交量、保值率等进行盘点。数据显示，小鹏、蔚来二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了特斯拉。报告显示，在6月的品牌成交量排行榜上，大众、别克、日产的二手车成交量位列前三，福特和雪佛兰紧随其后。据介绍，品牌保有量和消费者关注度是二手车品牌成交量高的主要因素。报告指出，6...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021070810431078874588&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e9aa56586a03fdd6464e21bfe99f7b5","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉","09868":"小鹏汽车-W"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021070810431078874588&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2149122083","content_text":"7月8日消息，日前，天天拍车对外发布《6月二手车在线拍卖数据报告》。报告主要包含6月二手车成交概览和新能源二手车两大部分，主要从车主画像、品牌成交量、保值率等进行盘点。数据显示，小鹏、蔚来二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了特斯拉。报告显示，在6月的品牌成交量排行榜上，大众、别克、日产的二手车成交量位列前三，福特和雪佛兰紧随其后。据介绍，品牌保有量和消费者关注度是二手车品牌成交量高的主要因素。报告指出，6月主要新能源品牌竞价热度榜单中，TOP5品牌，国产品牌赶超国外品牌，小鹏、蔚来获得冠亚军，特斯拉、威马、北汽新能源分别位列3-5名。同时，分类车型三年保值率冠军榜中，日系车型占据大半席位。由于稀缺性的优势，雷克萨斯LX、丰田埃尔法的保值率较为突出，其中雷克萨斯LX三年保值率高达111%。天天拍车数据显示，6月最高成交价达285万元，成交车辆为一台2年车龄的奔驰G级AMG。竞价热度最高的二手车是一台10年车龄的本田CR-V，该车在最终成交之前经过了全国买家114次的激烈竞价。6月最远成交距离1920公里，通过天天拍车的二手车在线拍卖平台，全国买家竞价，这位深圳的车主将车卖给了北京的买家。报告显示，区别于燃油车成交车龄和里程主要在8年、10万公里以上，新能源二手车交易车龄和成交里程出现了不小反差，分别是3年、3万公里以下。之所以两者换车周期分布不同，是因为新能源产品技术迭代日新月异，年居多，而年轻人猎奇的心态驱使换车的节奏相对于传统燃油车更快。另外，从保值率这个维度来看，特斯拉Model 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Where to find the 90%?","listText":"The chart only show 3% that is higher PS and lower revenue growth. Where to find the 90%?","text":"The chart only show 3% that is higher PS and lower revenue growth. Where to find the 90%?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159070704","repostId":"1105982179","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1105982179","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624889210,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105982179?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 22:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: The Mass Exodus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105982179","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir conti","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Short interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.</li>\n <li>Even though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with shorting the stock.</li>\n <li>The stock could rally further.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16279727ada0c46eb4d43744da02d1cc\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Palantir's (PLTR) shares are up 20% in the last month alone but the rally could still continue. Latest data reveals that short interest in Palantir declined by 23.8% in the latest cycle alone. This suggests that a broad swath of market participants isn't buying into the bearish narratives surrounding the company, perceive its stock to be fairly valued and perhaps even anticipate it to rally going forward. This development should come across as an encouraging sign for the company's long-side investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.</p>\n<p><b>The Data</b></p>\n<p>I'd like to start by explaining the term \"short interest\" for the uninitiated. It's essentially the total number of short positions that are open against any given stock. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that traders grew bearish on the concerned company, and actively initiated short positions against it. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that traders actively wound up their short positions either perhaps because they anticipate the stock to bottom out and/or rally going forward. So, the short interest is a useful tool to gauge the Street's ever-evolving market sentiment.</p>\n<p>In Palantir's case, its short interest at the end of the latest data cycle stood at 52.3 million, sharply down by 23.8% on a sequential basis. Although Palantir's short interest figure isn't at its all-time low yet, the pace of its recent decline, however, is certainly one of the fastest in the company's brief history since its direct listing last year. For the record, Palantir has over 1.8 billion shares outstanding which means that about 2.8% of its entire share total had been shorted. Also, the short interest data is for the cycle spanning from early June to mid-June, and the data wasreleasedon Thursday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95e4623fda1d9079a2699b57d4ee0f42\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Next, I wanted to confirm if other software application companies also registered a sharp reduction in their short interest figures, or was Palantir an anomaly in its peer group. So, to get a broader perspective on its industry, I pulled the short interest figures for about 100 software application stocks listed in the US. Interestingly, 55% of these stocks registered a net reduction in their short interest figures, of varying magnitudes of course, which points to an industry-wide short unwinding.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091feec9aa17f821d01f34a7b46bb2bb\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"506\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Wsj.com)</span></p>\n<p>Moreover, the median short interest decline was 1.9%, whereas Palantir's short interest declined by a far more significant 23.8% during the same data cycle. In fact, there were just 6 other stocks in our study group, which saw their short interest decline in excess of 23.8%. This conclusively shows that market participants were far too active with unwinding their short positions in Palantir.</p>\n<p>But this leads us to an important question - why are market participants so cautious with shorting Palantir in the first place?</p>\n<p><b>Cautious for Good Reason</b></p>\n<p>As I've explained in my prior articles, Palantir has several initiatives at play which could collectively catapult its growth in 2021-22. These initiatives include itstransitionto a customer-friendly payment model to boost commercial sales, offeringfree trialsto major companies to expand its sales funnel and expanding itssales teamto revamp its outbound marketing function. We won't be discussing the same points again to avoid being repetitive, but the takeaway here is that since Palantir is undertaking several growth initiatives, it makes for a risky short bet for the time being at least.</p>\n<p>But don't take my word for it.</p>\n<p>The community of professional analysts is realizing Palantir's growth potential and raising their revenue estimates for its current fiscal year. They've raised their FY21 revenue estimates by about 5% so far since mid-January and there's no telling how many of such upward revenue revisions are still in store for the remainder of Palantir's FY21. This bullish uncertainty presents an unfavorable risk-reward ratio for short-side market participants and explains why short interest in Palantir continues to decline.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74bccdf90ceb880c1a3edddad8743a1e\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>There's another point to consider here, that nobody seems to be talking about. Palantir has won several COVID-19 tracking-related contracts (such ashere,here,here,hereandhere) over the last 12 - 15 months as government agencies across the globe grappled to control the spread and tried to better manage their resources. With COVID-19 said to be making a fierce comeback with thedelta variant, I contend that Palantir could experience a similar order windfall this year, from proactive government agencies, which could boost the company's government sales along the way.</p>\n<p>Lastly, several commenters argue that Palantir's shares are trading at a premium and are due for a sharp correction. Its shares are trading at about 34-times trailing twelve-month sales so it's understandable why many might think that the stock is overvalued. But I believe the problem with this approach is that we're not factoring in industry-wide trading multiples or Palantir's revenue growth rate, compared to its peers.</p>\n<p>So, to put things in perspective, I compiled the revenue growth rates and price-to-sales (or P/S) multiples for over 320 software infrastructure and software application stocks that are currently listed on US exchanges. Next, I benchmarked these industry groups based on Palantir's revenue growth rate and its P/S multiple. As it turns out, over 90% of Palantir's peers have a slower revenue growth and/or are trading at higher trading multiples. This suggests that Palantir's higher pace of growth justifies its price premium and that the bearish concerns regarding its valuations, are exaggerated.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fefb171f61438817b747d6a50fff8133\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>(Source: Business Quant.com)</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>I'd like to point to readers that fluctuations in short interest figures don't always impact the underlying stock prices. This data is based on short positions that were open at a prior cut-off date and investors with a long-term time horizon should, at best, use it to corroborate their bull or bear thesis.</p>\n<p>Having said that, if the bearish narratives surrounding Palantir held any merit, or posed a legitimate risk to its share price, a broad swath of market participants would've actively shorted the stock to profit off of this near-certain eventuality. But that didn't happen and its short interest declined instead, that too by a significant amount.</p>\n<p>This active short unwinding indicates that market participants are uncomfortable in shorting the stock at current levels. This should come across as a reassuring sign for the company's long-side shareholders. The stock seems to be fairly valued and has the potential to rally further. Good Luck!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: The Mass Exodus</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: The Mass Exodus\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 22:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105982179","content_text":"Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with shorting the stock.\nThe stock could rally further.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nPalantir's (PLTR) shares are up 20% in the last month alone but the rally could still continue. Latest data reveals that short interest in Palantir declined by 23.8% in the latest cycle alone. This suggests that a broad swath of market participants isn't buying into the bearish narratives surrounding the company, perceive its stock to be fairly valued and perhaps even anticipate it to rally going forward. This development should come across as an encouraging sign for the company's long-side investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.\nThe Data\nI'd like to start by explaining the term \"short interest\" for the uninitiated. It's essentially the total number of short positions that are open against any given stock. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that traders grew bearish on the concerned company, and actively initiated short positions against it. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that traders actively wound up their short positions either perhaps because they anticipate the stock to bottom out and/or rally going forward. So, the short interest is a useful tool to gauge the Street's ever-evolving market sentiment.\nIn Palantir's case, its short interest at the end of the latest data cycle stood at 52.3 million, sharply down by 23.8% on a sequential basis. Although Palantir's short interest figure isn't at its all-time low yet, the pace of its recent decline, however, is certainly one of the fastest in the company's brief history since its direct listing last year. For the record, Palantir has over 1.8 billion shares outstanding which means that about 2.8% of its entire share total had been shorted. Also, the short interest data is for the cycle spanning from early June to mid-June, and the data wasreleasedon Thursday.\n\nNext, I wanted to confirm if other software application companies also registered a sharp reduction in their short interest figures, or was Palantir an anomaly in its peer group. So, to get a broader perspective on its industry, I pulled the short interest figures for about 100 software application stocks listed in the US. Interestingly, 55% of these stocks registered a net reduction in their short interest figures, of varying magnitudes of course, which points to an industry-wide short unwinding.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Wsj.com)\nMoreover, the median short interest decline was 1.9%, whereas Palantir's short interest declined by a far more significant 23.8% during the same data cycle. In fact, there were just 6 other stocks in our study group, which saw their short interest decline in excess of 23.8%. This conclusively shows that market participants were far too active with unwinding their short positions in Palantir.\nBut this leads us to an important question - why are market participants so cautious with shorting Palantir in the first place?\nCautious for Good Reason\nAs I've explained in my prior articles, Palantir has several initiatives at play which could collectively catapult its growth in 2021-22. These initiatives include itstransitionto a customer-friendly payment model to boost commercial sales, offeringfree trialsto major companies to expand its sales funnel and expanding itssales teamto revamp its outbound marketing function. We won't be discussing the same points again to avoid being repetitive, but the takeaway here is that since Palantir is undertaking several growth initiatives, it makes for a risky short bet for the time being at least.\nBut don't take my word for it.\nThe community of professional analysts is realizing Palantir's growth potential and raising their revenue estimates for its current fiscal year. They've raised their FY21 revenue estimates by about 5% so far since mid-January and there's no telling how many of such upward revenue revisions are still in store for the remainder of Palantir's FY21. This bullish uncertainty presents an unfavorable risk-reward ratio for short-side market participants and explains why short interest in Palantir continues to decline.\n\nThere's another point to consider here, that nobody seems to be talking about. Palantir has won several COVID-19 tracking-related contracts (such ashere,here,here,hereandhere) over the last 12 - 15 months as government agencies across the globe grappled to control the spread and tried to better manage their resources. With COVID-19 said to be making a fierce comeback with thedelta variant, I contend that Palantir could experience a similar order windfall this year, from proactive government agencies, which could boost the company's government sales along the way.\nLastly, several commenters argue that Palantir's shares are trading at a premium and are due for a sharp correction. Its shares are trading at about 34-times trailing twelve-month sales so it's understandable why many might think that the stock is overvalued. But I believe the problem with this approach is that we're not factoring in industry-wide trading multiples or Palantir's revenue growth rate, compared to its peers.\nSo, to put things in perspective, I compiled the revenue growth rates and price-to-sales (or P/S) multiples for over 320 software infrastructure and software application stocks that are currently listed on US exchanges. Next, I benchmarked these industry groups based on Palantir's revenue growth rate and its P/S multiple. As it turns out, over 90% of Palantir's peers have a slower revenue growth and/or are trading at higher trading multiples. This suggests that Palantir's higher pace of growth justifies its price premium and that the bearish concerns regarding its valuations, are exaggerated.\n(Source: Business Quant.com)\nFinal Thoughts\nI'd like to point to readers that fluctuations in short interest figures don't always impact the underlying stock prices. This data is based on short positions that were open at a prior cut-off date and investors with a long-term time horizon should, at best, use it to corroborate their bull or bear thesis.\nHaving said that, if the bearish narratives surrounding Palantir held any merit, or posed a legitimate risk to its share price, a broad swath of market participants would've actively shorted the stock to profit off of this near-certain eventuality. But that didn't happen and its short interest declined instead, that too by a significant amount.\nThis active short unwinding indicates that market participants are uncomfortable in shorting the stock at current levels. This should come across as a reassuring sign for the company's long-side shareholders. The stock seems to be fairly valued and has the potential to rally further. Good Luck!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}