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Dave123

Dave123

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2021-12-30

Nice

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2021-12-29

Oh no

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2021-12-28

Go go go

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2021-12-27

Weee

Santa Claus Rally watch: What to know this week<blockquote>圣诞老人集会手表：本周须知</blockquote>

2021-12-26

Noted

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2021-12-25

Like

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2021-12-24

Nice

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2021-12-23

Okie

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2021-12-23

Nice

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2021-12-22

Nice. Buy more SQ

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2021-12-21

Sure

Apple Stock: If You're Buying the Dip, Here's What You Need to Know<blockquote>苹果股票：如果您要逢低买入，以下是您需要了解的内容</blockquote>

2021-12-19

Okay

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2021-12-18

Ok

Wall Street ends down after mostly negative week<blockquote>华尔街在经历了大部分负面的一周后收盘下跌</blockquote>

2021-12-17

Oh no

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2021-12-16

Thanks

Analysis-The three data reports that persuaded Powell to speed up Fed's taper<blockquote>分析——说服鲍威尔加速美联储缩减规模的三份数据报告</blockquote>

2021-12-16

Okie

Cathie Wood Sells Another $88M In Tesla Day After Piling Up Stake In Chinese EV Rival<blockquote>Cathie Wood 在增持中国电动汽车竞争对手股份后，在特斯拉日又出售了 8800 万美元</blockquote>

2021-12-15

Wow

Warren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>巴菲特已将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的苹果股份增加到其全部股票投资组合的 50%，占其 6,490 亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote>

2021-12-14

Okie

PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote>

2021-12-13

Noted

Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、FedEx、Lenner、Campbell Soup 和本周值得关注的其他股票</blockquote>

2021-12-12

Great

US IPO Week Ahead: IoT solutions, wine, and satellites in a 3 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：物联网解决方案、葡萄酒和卫星在 IPO 第三周</blockquote>

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go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696170674","repostId":"1127544468","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696078437,"gmtCreate":1640586845728,"gmtModify":1640586846015,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573359276928522","authorIdStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Weee","listText":"Weee","text":"Weee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696078437","repostId":"2194177239","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2194177239","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640559609,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2194177239?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-27 07:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Santa Claus Rally watch: What to know this week<blockquote>圣诞老人集会手表：本周须知</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2194177239","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"As traders return from the holiday-shortened week, the price action heading into the new year will be closely monitored — especially given the relatively light economic data and earnings calendar for the coming days.The S&P 500  is entering the period known for ushering in the so-called Santa Claus Rally, or seasonally strong timeframe for stocks at the end of each year.According to data from LPL Financial, the Santa Claus Rally period encapsulates the seven days most likely to be higher in any ","content":"<p><div> As traders return from the holiday-shortened week, the price action heading into the new year will be closely monitored — especially given the relatively light economic data and earnings calendar for ...</p><p><blockquote><div>随着交易员从假期缩短的一周归来，进入新的一年的价格走势将受到密切关注——特别是考虑到相对清淡的经济数据和收益日历……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/santa-claus-rally-watch-what-to-know-this-week-142909627.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/santa-claus-rally-watch-what-to-know-this-week-142909627.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Santa Claus Rally watch: What to know this week<blockquote>圣诞老人集会手表：本周须知</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSanta Claus Rally watch: What to know this week<blockquote>圣诞老人集会手表：本周须知</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-27 07:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> As traders return from the holiday-shortened week, the price action heading into the new year will be closely monitored — especially given the relatively light economic data and earnings calendar for ...</p><p><blockquote><div>随着交易员从假期缩短的一周归来，进入新的一年的价格走势将受到密切关注——特别是考虑到相对清淡的经济数据和收益日历……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/santa-claus-rally-watch-what-to-know-this-week-142909627.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/santa-claus-rally-watch-what-to-know-this-week-142909627.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/santa-claus-rally-watch-what-to-know-this-week-142909627.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4096":"电气部件与设备","FCEL":"燃料电池能源","SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust","BK4541":"氢能源"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/santa-claus-rally-watch-what-to-know-this-week-142909627.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2194177239","content_text":"As traders return from the holiday-shortened week, the price action heading into the new year will be closely monitored — especially given the relatively light economic data and earnings calendar for the coming days.\nThe S&P 500 (^GSPC) is entering the period known for ushering in the so-called Santa Claus Rally, or seasonally strong timeframe for stocks at the end of each year.\nThe term, coined by Stock Trader's Almanac in the 1970s, encompasses the final five trading days of the year and first two sessions of the new year. This year, that Santa Claus Rally window is set to start on Monday, Dec. 27 — or the latest a Santa Claus rally has started in 11 years, due to the timing of the holidays this year.\nAccording to data from LPL Financial, the Santa Claus Rally period encapsulates the seven days most likely to be higher in any given year. Since 1950, the Santa Claus Rally period has produced a positive return for the S&P 500 78.9% of the time, with an average return of 1.33%.\n“Why are these seven days so strong?” wrote Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial chief market strategist, in a note. “Whether optimism over a coming new year, holiday spending, traders on vacation, institutions squaring up their books — or the holiday spirit — the bottom line is that bulls tend to believe in Santa.”\nAnd if history is any indication, the absence of a Santa Claus Rally has also typically served as a harbinger of lower near-term returns.\n\"Going back to the mid-1990s, there have been only six times Santa failed to show in December. January was lower five of those six times, and the full year had a solid gain only once (in 2016, but a mini-bear market early in the year),\" Detrick added.\n“Considering the bear markets of 2000 and 2008 both took place after one of the rare instances that Santa failed to show makes believers out of us,\" he said. A bear market typically refers to when stocks drop at least 20% from recent record highs. \"Should this seasonally strong period miss the mark, it could be a warning sign.\"\nAnd this year, investors do have considerable additional concerns to mull heading into the new year. Though stocks closed out Thursday's session at fresh record highs before the long holiday weekend, December still marked a volatile month to start, with renewed concerns over the Omicron variant and the potential for tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve weighing on risk assets. Plus, prospects for more near-term fiscal support via the Biden administration's Build Back Better bill have dwindled, and inflation concerns spiked further. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — rose at a 4.7% year-over-year clip, or the fastest since 1983.\n\"If the U.S. was not battling the Omicron variant, U.S. stocks would be dancing higher as the Santa Claus Rally would have kept the climb going into uncharted territory,\" Edward Moya, chief market strategist at OANDA, wrote in a note last week. \"It is too early to say for sure if we will get a Santa Claus Rally, but given all the short-term risks of Fed tightening, Chinese weakness, fiscal support uncertainty and COVID, Wall Street is not complaining.\"\nA man in a Santa Claus costume gestures on the floor at the closing bell of the Dow Industrial Average at the New York Stock Exchange on December 5, 2019 in New York. (Photo by Bryan R. Smith / AFP) (Photo by BRYAN R. SMITH/AFP via Getty Images)BRYAN R. SMITH via Getty Images\nEconomic calendar\n\nMonday: Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Activity Index, Dec. (13.0 expected, 11.8 in November)\nTuesday: FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, October (0.9% in September); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 City Composite Index, month-over-month, October (0.9% expected, 0.96% in September); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 City Composite Index, year-over-year, October (18.6%. expected, 19.05% in September); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, year-over-year, November (19.51% in October); Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, December (11 expected,11 in November)\nWednesday: Wholesale Inventories, month-over-month, November preliminary (1.7% expected, 2.3% in October); Advance Goods Trade Balance, November (-$89.0 billion expected, -$82.9 billion in October); Retail Inventories, month-over-month, November (0.5% expected, 0.1% in October); Pending Home Sales, month-over-month, November (0.5% expected, 7.5% in October)\nThursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended Dec. 25. (205,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended Dec. 18 (1.859 million during prior week); MNI Chicago PMI, December (62.2 expected, 61.8 in November)\nFriday: No notable reports scheduled for release\n\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nTuesday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nWednesday: FuelCell Energy Inc. (FCEL) before market open\nThursday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nFriday: No notable reports scheduled for release","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY.AU":0.9,"FCEL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698418681,"gmtCreate":1640490588260,"gmtModify":1640490588582,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573359276928522","authorIdStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698418681","repostId":"2193178197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698218454,"gmtCreate":1640403631430,"gmtModify":1640403631740,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573359276928522","authorIdStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698218454","repostId":"2193917872","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698877849,"gmtCreate":1640355152081,"gmtModify":1640355152400,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573359276928522","authorIdStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698877849","repostId":"1156159690","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3021,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691490239,"gmtCreate":1640225769908,"gmtModify":1640225946581,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573359276928522","authorIdStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie","listText":"Okie","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691490239","repostId":"1138573933","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691403294,"gmtCreate":1640225494527,"gmtModify":1640225607009,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573359276928522","authorIdStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691403294","repostId":"2193113147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691139398,"gmtCreate":1640144996132,"gmtModify":1640144996456,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573359276928522","authorIdStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice. Buy more SQ","listText":"Nice. Buy more SQ","text":"Nice. Buy more SQ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691139398","repostId":"2193316202","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2999,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693492594,"gmtCreate":1640057604522,"gmtModify":1640058751192,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573359276928522","authorIdStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sure","listText":"Sure","text":"Sure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693492594","repostId":"1112391676","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112391676","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640056217,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112391676?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: If You're Buying the Dip, Here's What You Need to Know<blockquote>苹果股票：如果您要逢低买入，以下是您需要了解的内容</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112391676","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Bargain hunters may start to consider buying Apple stock on the dip, following the December selloff. Here is what they should know first.Apple stock remains in a funk. Only one week to the dayafter I tossed around the ideaof trimming the position, shares of the Cupertino company dipped 7% from the $180 peak against the Nasdaq’s 4% decline, nearly entering correction territory.A few brave investors and traders must be taking this opportunity to start buying the dip. The Apple Maven highlights thr","content":"<p>Bargain hunters may start to consider buying Apple stock on the dip, following the December selloff. Here is what they should know first.</p><p><blockquote>继 12 月抛售之后，逢低买入苹果股票可能会开始考虑逢低买入。以下是他们首先应该知道的。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock&nbsp;remains in a funk. Only one week to the dayafter I tossed around the ideaof trimming the position, shares of the Cupertino company dipped 7% from the $180 peak against the Nasdaq’s 4% decline, nearly entering correction territory.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票仍然恐慌。在我抛出削减头寸的想法仅仅一周后，这家库比蒂诺公司的股价从 180 美元的峰值下跌了 7%，而纳斯达克则下跌了 4%，几乎进入了回调区。</blockquote></p><p> A few brave investors and traders must be taking this opportunity to start buying the dip. The Apple Maven highlights three facts that these bargain hunters should keep in mind.</p><p><blockquote>一些勇敢的投资者和交易者一定会抓住这个机会开始逢低买入。这位苹果专家强调了这些抄底者应该记住的三个事实。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a182a349bbd4ca16a13dace221ec341e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in China.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果在华门店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. Valuations are looking more attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.估值看起来更具吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL is far from being a dirt cheap stock. The price-to-earnings ratio today is still higher than it had been for at least the full decade prior to the start of the pandemic (see chart below). However, with the recent decline in share price but still resilient business fundamentals, valuations are starting to look more compelling.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 远非一只非常便宜的股票。如今的市盈率仍然高于疫情爆发前至少整整十年的水平（见下图）。然而，随着最近股价下跌但业务基本面仍然有弹性，估值开始看起来更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ae50cce66d14520a3db0ce721b79a3\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"389\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL's historical price-to-earnings ratio.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 2：AAPL 的历史市盈率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The last read on the graph above shows a P/E of 29.0 times as of November 30. As of last check, on December 20, the fiscal 2022 multiple had dropped to 27.5 times. These are roughly the same levels of June 2020, after which Apple stock moved 85% higher in a year and a half.</p><p><blockquote>上图的最后一次读数显示，截至 11 月 30 日，市盈率为 29.0 倍。截至 12 月 20 日的最后一次检查，2022 财年倍数已降至 27.5 倍。这些水平与 2020 年 6 月大致相同，之后苹果股价在一年半内上涨了 85%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2. The deeper the hole, the higher the gains</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2.洞越深，收益越高</b></blockquote></p><p> “Buy low, sell high”. The mantra may seem overly simplistic, but the strategy has worked wonders in the case of AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>“低买高卖”。这个口头禅可能看起来过于简单，但这个策略在苹果公司的案例中创造了奇迹。</blockquote></p><p> We have often mentioned here, on the Apple Maven channel, that shares of the Cupertino company&nbsp;do best when bought after a selloff. Historically, the one-year gains have been 22% when the stock is bought near a peak, but nearly 40% when bought after a 15% drawdown.</p><p><blockquote>我们经常在苹果 Maven 频道上提到，库比蒂诺公司的股票在抛售后买入时表现最好。从历史上看，当股票在峰值附近买入时，一年涨幅为 22%，但在下跌 15% 后买入时，一年涨幅接近 40%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9439be7d48cbf04254a822d9d57576f3\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: Average one-year return on AAPL, by strategy.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 3：按策略划分的 AAPL 平均一年回报率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Could this time be different for dip buyers? I think not. To be clear, I do not believe that every stock is worth owning on weakness, as “40% of all stocks have&nbsp;suffered&nbsp;a permanent 70%-plus decline from their peak value”.</p><p><blockquote>对于逢低买家来说，这次会有所不同吗？我不这么认为。需要明确的是，我并不认为每只股票都值得在疲软时持有，因为 “40% 的股票从峰值永久性下跌了 70% 以上”。</blockquote></p><p> But in the case of Apple, it is highly likely that share price will eventually head higher again, shaking off short-term bearishness and chasing the strong business fundamentals. Having the patience to wait for the next rally is crucial.</p><p><blockquote>但就苹果而言，股价最终极有可能再次走高，摆脱短期看跌情绪，追逐强劲的商业基本面。耐心等待下一次反弹至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3. Don’t underestimate volatility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3.不要低估波动性</b></blockquote></p><p> All the above sounds bullish at first glance, and an incentive to buy Apple at the current share price of around $168. But if doing so, I urge traders and investors to pay attention to volatility.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，以上所有情况听起来都很乐观，并且是以目前 168 美元左右的股价购买苹果的动力。但如果这样做，我敦促交易者和投资者关注波动性。</blockquote></p><p> The emotional and psychological aspects of investing can be as important as the quantitative considerations, in my view. Those who buy dips must be willing to endure higher volatility, which has increased sharply for AAPL in the past few weeks — see below.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，投资的情感和心理方面与数量方面的考虑一样重要。那些逢低买入的人必须愿意忍受更高的波动性，而过去几周 AAPL 的波动性急剧增加——见下文。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eace3c9293acb54a4dc217debd6a44be\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 4: Annual volatility in AAPL, 1-month rolling.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 4：AAPL 的年度波动性，1 个月滚动。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Because Apple stock price is likely to ricochet in the short term, some might be tempted to sell their shares prematurely, should they drop well below current levels. If buying AAPL, be sure to have a clear exit strategy to avoid falling victim to spur-of-the-moment decisions.</p><p><blockquote>由于苹果股价可能在短期内反弹，如果股价远低于当前水平，一些人可能会试图过早出售股票。如果购买 AAPL，请务必制定明确的退出策略，以避免成为一时冲动决定的受害者。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: If You're Buying the Dip, Here's What You Need to Know<blockquote>苹果股票：如果您要逢低买入，以下是您需要了解的内容</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: If You're Buying the Dip, Here's What You Need to Know<blockquote>苹果股票：如果您要逢低买入，以下是您需要了解的内容</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-21 11:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bargain hunters may start to consider buying Apple stock on the dip, following the December selloff. Here is what they should know first.</p><p><blockquote>继 12 月抛售之后，逢低买入苹果股票可能会开始考虑逢低买入。以下是他们首先应该知道的。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock&nbsp;remains in a funk. Only one week to the dayafter I tossed around the ideaof trimming the position, shares of the Cupertino company dipped 7% from the $180 peak against the Nasdaq’s 4% decline, nearly entering correction territory.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票仍然恐慌。在我抛出削减头寸的想法仅仅一周后，这家库比蒂诺公司的股价从 180 美元的峰值下跌了 7%，而纳斯达克则下跌了 4%，几乎进入了回调区。</blockquote></p><p> A few brave investors and traders must be taking this opportunity to start buying the dip. The Apple Maven highlights three facts that these bargain hunters should keep in mind.</p><p><blockquote>一些勇敢的投资者和交易者一定会抓住这个机会开始逢低买入。这位苹果专家强调了这些抄底者应该记住的三个事实。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a182a349bbd4ca16a13dace221ec341e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in China.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果在华门店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. Valuations are looking more attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.估值看起来更具吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL is far from being a dirt cheap stock. The price-to-earnings ratio today is still higher than it had been for at least the full decade prior to the start of the pandemic (see chart below). However, with the recent decline in share price but still resilient business fundamentals, valuations are starting to look more compelling.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 远非一只非常便宜的股票。如今的市盈率仍然高于疫情爆发前至少整整十年的水平（见下图）。然而，随着最近股价下跌但业务基本面仍然有弹性，估值开始看起来更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ae50cce66d14520a3db0ce721b79a3\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"389\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL's historical price-to-earnings ratio.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 2：AAPL 的历史市盈率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The last read on the graph above shows a P/E of 29.0 times as of November 30. As of last check, on December 20, the fiscal 2022 multiple had dropped to 27.5 times. These are roughly the same levels of June 2020, after which Apple stock moved 85% higher in a year and a half.</p><p><blockquote>上图的最后一次读数显示，截至 11 月 30 日，市盈率为 29.0 倍。截至 12 月 20 日的最后一次检查，2022 财年倍数已降至 27.5 倍。这些水平与 2020 年 6 月大致相同，之后苹果股价在一年半内上涨了 85%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2. The deeper the hole, the higher the gains</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2.洞越深，收益越高</b></blockquote></p><p> “Buy low, sell high”. The mantra may seem overly simplistic, but the strategy has worked wonders in the case of AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>“低买高卖”。这个口头禅可能看起来过于简单，但这个策略在苹果公司的案例中创造了奇迹。</blockquote></p><p> We have often mentioned here, on the Apple Maven channel, that shares of the Cupertino company&nbsp;do best when bought after a selloff. Historically, the one-year gains have been 22% when the stock is bought near a peak, but nearly 40% when bought after a 15% drawdown.</p><p><blockquote>我们经常在苹果 Maven 频道上提到，库比蒂诺公司的股票在抛售后买入时表现最好。从历史上看，当股票在峰值附近买入时，一年涨幅为 22%，但在下跌 15% 后买入时，一年涨幅接近 40%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9439be7d48cbf04254a822d9d57576f3\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: Average one-year return on AAPL, by strategy.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 3：按策略划分的 AAPL 平均一年回报率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Could this time be different for dip buyers? I think not. To be clear, I do not believe that every stock is worth owning on weakness, as “40% of all stocks have&nbsp;suffered&nbsp;a permanent 70%-plus decline from their peak value”.</p><p><blockquote>对于逢低买家来说，这次会有所不同吗？我不这么认为。需要明确的是，我并不认为每只股票都值得在疲软时持有，因为 “40% 的股票从峰值永久性下跌了 70% 以上”。</blockquote></p><p> But in the case of Apple, it is highly likely that share price will eventually head higher again, shaking off short-term bearishness and chasing the strong business fundamentals. Having the patience to wait for the next rally is crucial.</p><p><blockquote>但就苹果而言，股价最终极有可能再次走高，摆脱短期看跌情绪，追逐强劲的商业基本面。耐心等待下一次反弹至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3. Don’t underestimate volatility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3.不要低估波动性</b></blockquote></p><p> All the above sounds bullish at first glance, and an incentive to buy Apple at the current share price of around $168. But if doing so, I urge traders and investors to pay attention to volatility.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，以上所有情况听起来都很乐观，并且是以目前 168 美元左右的股价购买苹果的动力。但如果这样做，我敦促交易者和投资者关注波动性。</blockquote></p><p> The emotional and psychological aspects of investing can be as important as the quantitative considerations, in my view. Those who buy dips must be willing to endure higher volatility, which has increased sharply for AAPL in the past few weeks — see below.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，投资的情感和心理方面与数量方面的考虑一样重要。那些逢低买入的人必须愿意忍受更高的波动性，而过去几周 AAPL 的波动性急剧增加——见下文。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eace3c9293acb54a4dc217debd6a44be\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 4: Annual volatility in AAPL, 1-month rolling.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 4：AAPL 的年度波动性，1 个月滚动。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Because Apple stock price is likely to ricochet in the short term, some might be tempted to sell their shares prematurely, should they drop well below current levels. If buying AAPL, be sure to have a clear exit strategy to avoid falling victim to spur-of-the-moment decisions.</p><p><blockquote>由于苹果股价可能在短期内反弹，如果股价远低于当前水平，一些人可能会试图过早出售股票。如果购买 AAPL，请务必制定明确的退出策略，以避免成为一时冲动决定的受害者。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-3-key-facts-dip-buyers-must-know\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-3-key-facts-dip-buyers-must-know","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112391676","content_text":"Bargain hunters may start to consider buying Apple stock on the dip, following the December selloff. Here is what they should know first.\nApple stock remains in a funk. Only one week to the dayafter I tossed around the ideaof trimming the position, shares of the Cupertino company dipped 7% from the $180 peak against the Nasdaq’s 4% decline, nearly entering correction territory.\nA few brave investors and traders must be taking this opportunity to start buying the dip. The Apple Maven highlights three facts that these bargain hunters should keep in mind.\nFigure 1: Apple store in China.\n#1. Valuations are looking more attractive\nAAPL is far from being a dirt cheap stock. The price-to-earnings ratio today is still higher than it had been for at least the full decade prior to the start of the pandemic (see chart below). However, with the recent decline in share price but still resilient business fundamentals, valuations are starting to look more compelling.\nFigure 2: AAPL's historical price-to-earnings ratio.\nThe last read on the graph above shows a P/E of 29.0 times as of November 30. As of last check, on December 20, the fiscal 2022 multiple had dropped to 27.5 times. These are roughly the same levels of June 2020, after which Apple stock moved 85% higher in a year and a half.\n#2. The deeper the hole, the higher the gains\n“Buy low, sell high”. The mantra may seem overly simplistic, but the strategy has worked wonders in the case of AAPL.\nWe have often mentioned here, on the Apple Maven channel, that shares of the Cupertino company do best when bought after a selloff. Historically, the one-year gains have been 22% when the stock is bought near a peak, but nearly 40% when bought after a 15% drawdown.\nFigure 3: Average one-year return on AAPL, by strategy.\nCould this time be different for dip buyers? I think not. To be clear, I do not believe that every stock is worth owning on weakness, as “40% of all stocks have suffered a permanent 70%-plus decline from their peak value”.\nBut in the case of Apple, it is highly likely that share price will eventually head higher again, shaking off short-term bearishness and chasing the strong business fundamentals. Having the patience to wait for the next rally is crucial.\n#3. Don’t underestimate volatility\nAll the above sounds bullish at first glance, and an incentive to buy Apple at the current share price of around $168. But if doing so, I urge traders and investors to pay attention to volatility.\nThe emotional and psychological aspects of investing can be as important as the quantitative considerations, in my view. Those who buy dips must be willing to endure higher volatility, which has increased sharply for AAPL in the past few weeks — see below.\nFigure 4: Annual volatility in AAPL, 1-month rolling.\nBecause Apple stock price is likely to ricochet in the short term, some might be tempted to sell their shares prematurely, should they drop well below current levels. If buying AAPL, be sure to have a clear exit strategy to avoid falling victim to spur-of-the-moment decisions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699748090,"gmtCreate":1639911658812,"gmtModify":1639911659068,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573359276928522","authorIdStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699748090","repostId":"2192035909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699223634,"gmtCreate":1639815971827,"gmtModify":1639815986371,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573359276928522","authorIdStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699223634","repostId":"1116106959","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116106959","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639785552,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1116106959?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-18 07:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street ends down after mostly negative week<blockquote>华尔街在经历了大部分负面的一周后收盘下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116106959","media":"Reuters","summary":" - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.The S","content":"<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社） - 华尔街周五收低，受到大型科技公司的拖累，投资者担心奥密克戎冠状病毒变种，并消化了美联储更快结束大流行时代刺激措施的决定。</blockquote></p><p> All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储周三暗示到 2022 年底加息三个四分之一个百分点以应对通胀飙升后，美国三大股指本周全部下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达下跌 2.1%，Alphabet下跌 1.9%，均令标普500和纳斯达克承压。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 growth index lost 0.7% and the value index declined 1.4%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500增长指数下跌0.7%，价值指数下跌1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> All of the 11 major S&amp;P 500 sector indexes fell, with financials leading the way down with a 2.3% drop. Energy lost 2.2%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11个主要板块指数全部下跌，其中金融股领跌2.3%。能源损失2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Adding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司周五表示，疫情可能会持续到明年，这增加了不确定性。欧洲国家为进一步的旅行和社会限制做好了准备，一项研究警告说，快速传播的奥密克戎冠状病毒变种再次感染人们的可能性是其前身德尔塔的五倍。</blockquote></p><p> Traders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.</p><p><blockquote>交易员还指出，年终税收抛售以及股票期权、股指期货和指数期权合约同时到期（被称为三重巫术）是波动的潜在原因。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"</p><p><blockquote>“这是一个重要的期权到期日，”新泽西州查塔姆 Themis Trading 的交易联席经理 Joe Saluzzi 表示。“现在你再加上一些奥密克戎，你就会出现波动，我认为这会给投资者带来很多不确定性。你打算在年底前把仓位放在哪里？”</blockquote></p><p> Heavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 index gained around 23% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，英伟达和微软等权重成长股的表现优于大盘，而费城东南半导体指数则飙升约35%。同期，基准标普500指数上涨约 23%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% to end at 35,365.44 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.03% to 4,620.64.</p><p><blockquote>在周五的交易中，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1.48%，收于35,365.44点，而标普500指数下跌1.03%，至4,620.64点。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07% to 15,169.68.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌 0.07%，至 15,169.68 点。</blockquote></p><p> On a positive note, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rallied 1% after having fallen more than 10% from a record high in early November.</p><p><blockquote>从积极的方面来看，小盘股罗素 2000 指数在从 11 月初的历史高点下跌超过 10% 后反弹 1%。</blockquote></p><p> With options expiring, volume on U.S. exchanges jumped to 16.6 billion shares, far above the 11.9 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>随着期权到期，美国交易所的成交量跃升至 166 亿股，远高于过去 20 个交易日 119 亿股的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> For the week, the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the Nasdaq declined 2.9%.</p><p><blockquote>本周，标普500指数下跌1.9%，道琼斯指数下跌1.7%，纳斯达克指数下跌2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.</p><p><blockquote>在周五的交易中，甲骨文暴跌 6.4%，此前《华尔街日报》报道了这家企业软件制造商正在洽谈收购电子病历公司 Cerner，交易价值可能为 300 亿美元。Cerner 股价飙升 12.9%。</blockquote></p><p> FedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.</p><p><blockquote>联邦快递公司 (FedEx Corp) 周四恢复了最初的 2022 财年预测，尽管持续的劳动力困境削弱了利润，但该公司股价上涨近 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 1.50 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.16比1的比率有利于进步人士。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下 22 个 52 周新高和 7 个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下28个新高和341个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street ends down after mostly negative week<blockquote>华尔街在经历了大部分负面的一周后收盘下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street ends down after mostly negative week<blockquote>华尔街在经历了大部分负面的一周后收盘下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-18 07:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社） - 华尔街周五收低，受到大型科技公司的拖累，投资者担心奥密克戎冠状病毒变种，并消化了美联储更快结束大流行时代刺激措施的决定。</blockquote></p><p> All three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储周三暗示到 2022 年底加息三个四分之一个百分点以应对通胀飙升后，美国三大股指本周全部下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达下跌 2.1%，Alphabet下跌 1.9%，均令标普500和纳斯达克承压。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 growth index lost 0.7% and the value index declined 1.4%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500增长指数下跌0.7%，价值指数下跌1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> All of the 11 major S&amp;P 500 sector indexes fell, with financials leading the way down with a 2.3% drop. Energy lost 2.2%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11个主要板块指数全部下跌，其中金融股领跌2.3%。能源损失2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Adding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司周五表示，疫情可能会持续到明年，这增加了不确定性。欧洲国家为进一步的旅行和社会限制做好了准备，一项研究警告说，快速传播的奥密克戎冠状病毒变种再次感染人们的可能性是其前身德尔塔的五倍。</blockquote></p><p> Traders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.</p><p><blockquote>交易员还指出，年终税收抛售以及股票期权、股指期货和指数期权合约同时到期（被称为三重巫术）是波动的潜在原因。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"</p><p><blockquote>“这是一个重要的期权到期日，”新泽西州查塔姆 Themis Trading 的交易联席经理 Joe Saluzzi 表示。“现在你再加上一些奥密克戎，你就会出现波动，我认为这会给投资者带来很多不确定性。你打算在年底前把仓位放在哪里？”</blockquote></p><p> Heavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 index gained around 23% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，英伟达和微软等权重成长股的表现优于大盘，而费城东南半导体指数则飙升约35%。同期，基准标普500指数上涨约 23%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% to end at 35,365.44 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 1.03% to 4,620.64.</p><p><blockquote>在周五的交易中，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1.48%，收于35,365.44点，而标普500指数下跌1.03%，至4,620.64点。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07% to 15,169.68.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌 0.07%，至 15,169.68 点。</blockquote></p><p> On a positive note, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rallied 1% after having fallen more than 10% from a record high in early November.</p><p><blockquote>从积极的方面来看，小盘股罗素 2000 指数在从 11 月初的历史高点下跌超过 10% 后反弹 1%。</blockquote></p><p> With options expiring, volume on U.S. exchanges jumped to 16.6 billion shares, far above the 11.9 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>随着期权到期，美国交易所的成交量跃升至 166 亿股，远高于过去 20 个交易日 119 亿股的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> For the week, the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the Nasdaq declined 2.9%.</p><p><blockquote>本周，标普500指数下跌1.9%，道琼斯指数下跌1.7%，纳斯达克指数下跌2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In Friday's session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.</p><p><blockquote>在周五的交易中，甲骨文暴跌 6.4%，此前《华尔街日报》报道了这家企业软件制造商正在洽谈收购电子病历公司 Cerner，交易价值可能为 300 亿美元。Cerner 股价飙升 12.9%。</blockquote></p><p> FedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.</p><p><blockquote>联邦快递公司 (FedEx Corp) 周四恢复了最初的 2022 财年预测，尽管持续的劳动力困境削弱了利润，但该公司股价上涨近 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 1.50 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.16比1的比率有利于进步人士。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下 22 个 52 周新高和 7 个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下28个新高和341个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-ends-212015460.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-ends-212015460.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116106959","content_text":"(Reuters) - Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve's decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster.\nAll three main U.S. stock indexes ended with a decline for the week after the Fed on Wednesday signaled three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022 to combat surging inflation.\nNvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%, both weighing on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.\nThe S&P 500 growth index lost 0.7% and the value index declined 1.4%.\nAll of the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes fell, with financials leading the way down with a 2.3% drop. Energy lost 2.2%.\nAdding to uncertainty, Pfizer said on Friday the pandemic could extend through next year. European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions and a study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta.\nTraders also pointed to year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts - known as triple witching - as potential causes for volatility.\n\"It's a big options expiration day,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. \"And now you draw on top of that some Omicron, and you've got volatility, and I think it creates a lot of uncertainty amongst investors. Where are you going to position for the end of the year?\"\nHeavyweight growth stocks including Nvidia and Microsoft have outperformed the broader market in 2021, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has surged about 35%. The benchmark S&P 500 index gained around 23% in the same period.\nIn Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% to end at 35,365.44 points, while the S&P 500 lost 1.03% to 4,620.64.\nThe Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07% to 15,169.68.\nOn a positive note, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rallied 1% after having fallen more than 10% from a record high in early November.\nWith options expiring, volume on U.S. exchanges jumped to 16.6 billion shares, far above the 11.9 billion average over the last 20 trading days.\nFor the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.9%, the Dow lost 1.7% and the Nasdaq declined 2.9%.\nIn Friday's session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.\nFedEx Corp rose almost 5% after the delivery firm reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.16-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 341 new lows.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690714315,"gmtCreate":1639708593454,"gmtModify":1639709071584,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573359276928522","authorIdStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690714315","repostId":"2192920942","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690811865,"gmtCreate":1639653593698,"gmtModify":1639653593988,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573359276928522","authorIdStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690811865","repostId":"1149635928","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149635928","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639653374,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1149635928?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Analysis-The three data reports that persuaded Powell to speed up Fed's taper<blockquote>分析——说服鲍威尔加速美联储缩减规模的三份数据报告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149635928","media":"Reuters","summary":"The ink had barely dried on the Federal Reserve's November policy decision to begin reducing bond pu","content":"<p>The ink had barely dried on the Federal Reserve's November policy decision to begin reducing bond purchases when Chair Jerome Powell became persuaded they'd need to push even harder against inflation.</p><p><blockquote>美联储 11 月份开始减少债券购买的政策决定的墨迹未干，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔就确信他们需要更加努力地对抗通胀。</blockquote></p><p> It was the culmination of a volatile few weeks in which inflation went from an academic threat - Powell offered a lengthy discourse on it at the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium - to a clear danger to the economy and sent the Fed chair charting out the central bank's next move.</p><p><blockquote>这是动荡的几周的高潮，在这几周里，通胀从一个学术威胁——鲍威尔在美联储杰克逊霍尔研讨会上就此发表了长篇演讲——变成了对经济的明显危险，并让美联储主席制定了央行的下一步行动。</blockquote></p><p> Leading up to the November meeting, a few policymakers - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard among them - had been pressing for a faster \"taper\" to make room for an earlier rate hike if needed. But their voices hadn't carried the day, and Fed policymakers had for weeks been prepping markets and the public to expect the exercise of bringing its bond purchases from $120 billion a month to zero would extend into mid-2022.</p><p><blockquote>在 11 月会议之前，包括圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德在内的一些政策制定者一直在敦促加快“缩减规模”，以便在必要时为提前加息腾出空间。但他们的声音并没有持续下去，美联储政策制定者几周来一直在让市场和公众做好准备，预计将每月 1200 亿美元的债券购买量降至零的做法将持续到 2022 年中期。</blockquote></p><p> Just days before the Fed's November meeting, however, when the plan was to be announced, Powell got his first inkling that the pace might be too slow: The Labor Department reported labor costs in the third quarter had shot up by the most since 2004.</p><p><blockquote>然而，就在美联储 11 月会议的前几天，当该计划即将公布时，鲍威尔第一次感觉到步伐可能太慢：劳工部报告称，第三季度劳动力成本飙升至 2004 年以来的最大水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"I thought for a second there whether we should increase our taper,\" Powell said at a press conference on Wednesday, but decided to go ahead with the pace that had been \"socialized.\"</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上表示：“我考虑了一秒钟，我们是否应该加大缩减规模。”但决定继续按照“社会化”的步伐进行。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed announced at the end of the meeting on Nov. 3 that it would begin reducing its purchases of Treasury securities by $10 billion monthly and of mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion starting in mid-November, a tapering rate that if sustained would have wrapped up the program by June.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在 11 月 3 日会议结束时宣布，将从 11 月中旬开始每月减少购买 100 亿美元的国债，减少购买 50 亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券，这一缩减速度如果持续下去，将在 6 月结束该计划。</blockquote></p><p> Another jolt came just two days after the meeting when employment gains for October came in much higher than expected, and the Labor Department said nearly a quarter million more jobs had been created in the prior two months than initially thought.</p><p><blockquote>会议结束仅两天后，又出现了一次冲击，10 月份的就业增长远高于预期，劳工部表示，前两个月创造的就业岗位比最初想象的多了近 25 万个。</blockquote></p><p> It was the next week's inflation data, though, that carried Powell fully over the line: The Consumer Price Index showed inflation surging at a rate not seen in three decades and growing increasingly broadbased, data that made it untenable to continue characterizing it as \"transitory.\"</p><p><blockquote>然而，下周的通胀数据让鲍威尔完全越过了底线：消费者价格指数显示通胀以三十年来从未有过的速度飙升，而且基础越来越广泛，这些数据使得继续将其定性为“短暂的”是站不住脚的。</blockquote></p><p> \"I honestly at that point really decided that I thought we needed to look at speeding up the taper and we went to work on that,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“老实说，当时我真的决定，我认为我们需要考虑加快缩减规模，我们开始着手解决这个问题，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> From there, Powell moved to build consensus among policymakers that they should double the taper pace to conclude asset purchases by March - a decision approved unanimously at this week's meeting. That gives officials more leeway to raise interest rates next year if needed to tackle the higher inflation, a step they would not want to take until after they've stopped purchasing bonds.</p><p><blockquote>从那时起，鲍威尔开始在政策制定者中建立共识，即他们应该将缩减规模的步伐加倍，以便在 3 月份之前完成资产购买——这一决定在本周的会议上获得一致通过。这给了官员们更多的回旋余地，如果需要应对更高的通胀，他们在停止购买债券之前不想采取这一步骤。</blockquote></p><p> \"It was essentially higher inflation and, and faster - turns out much faster - progress in the labor market,\" Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说：“本质上是通货膨胀率上升，而且劳动力市场的进展更快——事实证明要快得多。”</blockquote></p><p> Taming higher inflation will also help to remove one of the biggest \"threats\" to the Fed's goal of achieving maximum employment because it could allow for a potentially longer expansion, Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示，抑制较高的通胀也将有助于消除美联储实现最大限度就业目标的最大“威胁”之一，因为它可能允许潜在的更长时间的扩张。</blockquote></p><p> \"That's what it would really take to get back to the kind of labor market that we'd like to see,\" Powell said. \"And to have that happen, we need to make sure that we maintain price stability.\"</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说：“这就是回到我们希望看到的那种劳动力市场真正需要的。”“要做到这一点，我们需要确保保持价格稳定。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Analysis-The three data reports that persuaded Powell to speed up Fed's taper<blockquote>分析——说服鲍威尔加速美联储缩减规模的三份数据报告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnalysis-The three data reports that persuaded Powell to speed up Fed's taper<blockquote>分析——说服鲍威尔加速美联储缩减规模的三份数据报告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-16 19:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The ink had barely dried on the Federal Reserve's November policy decision to begin reducing bond purchases when Chair Jerome Powell became persuaded they'd need to push even harder against inflation.</p><p><blockquote>美联储 11 月份开始减少债券购买的政策决定的墨迹未干，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔就确信他们需要更加努力地对抗通胀。</blockquote></p><p> It was the culmination of a volatile few weeks in which inflation went from an academic threat - Powell offered a lengthy discourse on it at the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium - to a clear danger to the economy and sent the Fed chair charting out the central bank's next move.</p><p><blockquote>这是动荡的几周的高潮，在这几周里，通胀从一个学术威胁——鲍威尔在美联储杰克逊霍尔研讨会上就此发表了长篇演讲——变成了对经济的明显危险，并让美联储主席制定了央行的下一步行动。</blockquote></p><p> Leading up to the November meeting, a few policymakers - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard among them - had been pressing for a faster \"taper\" to make room for an earlier rate hike if needed. But their voices hadn't carried the day, and Fed policymakers had for weeks been prepping markets and the public to expect the exercise of bringing its bond purchases from $120 billion a month to zero would extend into mid-2022.</p><p><blockquote>在 11 月会议之前，包括圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德在内的一些政策制定者一直在敦促加快“缩减规模”，以便在必要时为提前加息腾出空间。但他们的声音并没有持续下去，美联储政策制定者几周来一直在让市场和公众做好准备，预计将每月 1200 亿美元的债券购买量降至零的做法将持续到 2022 年中期。</blockquote></p><p> Just days before the Fed's November meeting, however, when the plan was to be announced, Powell got his first inkling that the pace might be too slow: The Labor Department reported labor costs in the third quarter had shot up by the most since 2004.</p><p><blockquote>然而，就在美联储 11 月会议的前几天，当该计划即将公布时，鲍威尔第一次感觉到步伐可能太慢：劳工部报告称，第三季度劳动力成本飙升至 2004 年以来的最大水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"I thought for a second there whether we should increase our taper,\" Powell said at a press conference on Wednesday, but decided to go ahead with the pace that had been \"socialized.\"</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上表示：“我考虑了一秒钟，我们是否应该加大缩减规模。”但决定继续按照“社会化”的步伐进行。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed announced at the end of the meeting on Nov. 3 that it would begin reducing its purchases of Treasury securities by $10 billion monthly and of mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion starting in mid-November, a tapering rate that if sustained would have wrapped up the program by June.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在 11 月 3 日会议结束时宣布，将从 11 月中旬开始每月减少购买 100 亿美元的国债，减少购买 50 亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券，这一缩减速度如果持续下去，将在 6 月结束该计划。</blockquote></p><p> Another jolt came just two days after the meeting when employment gains for October came in much higher than expected, and the Labor Department said nearly a quarter million more jobs had been created in the prior two months than initially thought.</p><p><blockquote>会议结束仅两天后，又出现了一次冲击，10 月份的就业增长远高于预期，劳工部表示，前两个月创造的就业岗位比最初想象的多了近 25 万个。</blockquote></p><p> It was the next week's inflation data, though, that carried Powell fully over the line: The Consumer Price Index showed inflation surging at a rate not seen in three decades and growing increasingly broadbased, data that made it untenable to continue characterizing it as \"transitory.\"</p><p><blockquote>然而，下周的通胀数据让鲍威尔完全越过了底线：消费者价格指数显示通胀以三十年来从未有过的速度飙升，而且基础越来越广泛，这些数据使得继续将其定性为“短暂的”是站不住脚的。</blockquote></p><p> \"I honestly at that point really decided that I thought we needed to look at speeding up the taper and we went to work on that,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“老实说，当时我真的决定，我认为我们需要考虑加快缩减规模，我们开始着手解决这个问题，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> From there, Powell moved to build consensus among policymakers that they should double the taper pace to conclude asset purchases by March - a decision approved unanimously at this week's meeting. That gives officials more leeway to raise interest rates next year if needed to tackle the higher inflation, a step they would not want to take until after they've stopped purchasing bonds.</p><p><blockquote>从那时起，鲍威尔开始在政策制定者中建立共识，即他们应该将缩减规模的步伐加倍，以便在 3 月份之前完成资产购买——这一决定在本周的会议上获得一致通过。这给了官员们更多的回旋余地，如果需要应对更高的通胀，他们在停止购买债券之前不想采取这一步骤。</blockquote></p><p> \"It was essentially higher inflation and, and faster - turns out much faster - progress in the labor market,\" Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说：“本质上是通货膨胀率上升，而且劳动力市场的进展更快——事实证明要快得多。”</blockquote></p><p> Taming higher inflation will also help to remove one of the biggest \"threats\" to the Fed's goal of achieving maximum employment because it could allow for a potentially longer expansion, Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示，抑制较高的通胀也将有助于消除美联储实现最大限度就业目标的最大“威胁”之一，因为它可能允许潜在的更长时间的扩张。</blockquote></p><p> \"That's what it would really take to get back to the kind of labor market that we'd like to see,\" Powell said. \"And to have that happen, we need to make sure that we maintain price stability.\"</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说：“这就是回到我们希望看到的那种劳动力市场真正需要的。”“要做到这一点，我们需要确保保持价格稳定。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-three-data-reports-persuaded-111124772.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-three-data-reports-persuaded-111124772.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149635928","content_text":"The ink had barely dried on the Federal Reserve's November policy decision to begin reducing bond purchases when Chair Jerome Powell became persuaded they'd need to push even harder against inflation.\nIt was the culmination of a volatile few weeks in which inflation went from an academic threat - Powell offered a lengthy discourse on it at the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium - to a clear danger to the economy and sent the Fed chair charting out the central bank's next move.\nLeading up to the November meeting, a few policymakers - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard among them - had been pressing for a faster \"taper\" to make room for an earlier rate hike if needed. But their voices hadn't carried the day, and Fed policymakers had for weeks been prepping markets and the public to expect the exercise of bringing its bond purchases from $120 billion a month to zero would extend into mid-2022.\nJust days before the Fed's November meeting, however, when the plan was to be announced, Powell got his first inkling that the pace might be too slow: The Labor Department reported labor costs in the third quarter had shot up by the most since 2004.\n\"I thought for a second there whether we should increase our taper,\" Powell said at a press conference on Wednesday, but decided to go ahead with the pace that had been \"socialized.\"\nThe Fed announced at the end of the meeting on Nov. 3 that it would begin reducing its purchases of Treasury securities by $10 billion monthly and of mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion starting in mid-November, a tapering rate that if sustained would have wrapped up the program by June.\nAnother jolt came just two days after the meeting when employment gains for October came in much higher than expected, and the Labor Department said nearly a quarter million more jobs had been created in the prior two months than initially thought.\nIt was the next week's inflation data, though, that carried Powell fully over the line: The Consumer Price Index showed inflation surging at a rate not seen in three decades and growing increasingly broadbased, data that made it untenable to continue characterizing it as \"transitory.\"\n\"I honestly at that point really decided that I thought we needed to look at speeding up the taper and we went to work on that,\" he said.\nFrom there, Powell moved to build consensus among policymakers that they should double the taper pace to conclude asset purchases by March - a decision approved unanimously at this week's meeting. That gives officials more leeway to raise interest rates next year if needed to tackle the higher inflation, a step they would not want to take until after they've stopped purchasing bonds.\n\"It was essentially higher inflation and, and faster - turns out much faster - progress in the labor market,\" Powell said.\nTaming higher inflation will also help to remove one of the biggest \"threats\" to the Fed's goal of achieving maximum employment because it could allow for a potentially longer expansion, Powell said.\n\"That's what it would really take to get back to the kind of labor market that we'd like to see,\" Powell said. \"And to have that happen, we need to make sure that we maintain price stability.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690300364,"gmtCreate":1639627634368,"gmtModify":1639627634653,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573359276928522","authorIdStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie","listText":"Okie","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690300364","repostId":"1191022113","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191022113","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1639626011,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191022113?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cathie Wood Sells Another $88M In Tesla Day After Piling Up Stake In Chinese EV Rival<blockquote>Cathie Wood 在增持中国电动汽车竞争对手股份后，在特斯拉日又出售了 8800 万美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191022113","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Cathie Wood-led Ark Invest on Wednesday sold 90,455 shares — estimated to be worth $88.3 million — i","content":"<p><b>Cathie Wood</b>-led&nbsp;<b>Ark Invest</b>&nbsp;on Wednesday sold 90,455 shares — estimated to be worth $88.3 million — in&nbsp;<b>Tesla Inc</b>, booking profit in the stock as it rose after days of losses.</p><p><blockquote><b>凯西·伍德</b>-led<b>方舟投资</b>周三出售了 90,455 股股票，估计价值 8,830 万美元<b>特斯拉公司</b>该股在连续几天亏损后上涨，因此记录了利润。</blockquote></p><p> The stock pared earlier losses to close&nbsp;1.82% higher at $975.99 a share on Wednesday. The Elon Musk-led company’s shares are up about 34% so far this year and down about 7.5% over the past month.</p><p><blockquote>该股周三收盘上涨 1.82%，至每股 975.99 美元，收盘上涨 1.82%。埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）领导的这家公司的股价今年迄今已上涨约 34%，过去一个月下跌约 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Ark Invest sold the shares via the&nbsp;<b>Ark Innovation ETF</b>(BATS:ARKK), the&nbsp;<b>Ark Autonomous Technology &amp; Robotics ETF</b>(BATS:ARKQ) and the&nbsp;<b>Ark Next Generation Internet ETF</b>(BATS:ARKW)&nbsp;on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>Ark Invest 通过<b>方舟创新ETF</b>（蝙蝠：ARKK），<b>方舟自主技术与机器人 ETF</b>（蝙蝠：ARKQ）和<b>方舟下一代互联网ETF</b>（蝙蝠：ARKW）周三。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s weight in ARKK and ARKW had already slipped below the 10% threshold at 8.14% and 9.35%, respectively, ahead of Wednesday’s trade. In ARKQ, it constituted 10.59% of the portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>在周三交易前，特斯拉在 ARKK 和 ARKW 的权重已经跌破 10% 的门槛，分别为 8.14% 和 9.35%。在 ARKQ，它占投资组合的 10.59%。</blockquote></p><p> The three ETFs held 1.99 million shares — worth $1.91 billion — in Tesla, ahead of Wednesday’s trade.</p><p><blockquote>在周三交易前，这三只 ETF 在特斯拉持有 199 万股股票，价值 19.1 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Ark Invest has been booking profit in Tesla since September — selling over $3 billion worth of shares — after years of piling up shares in the electric vehicle company at far lower levels.</p><p><blockquote>Ark Invest 自 9 月份以来一直在特斯拉实现盈利，出售了价值超过 30 亿美元的股票，此前该公司多年来一直在低得多的水平囤积这家电动汽车公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla continues to be the firm's biggest bet across ETFs — a stock it predicts would hit the&nbsp;$3,000 mark by the end of 2025.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉仍然是该公司在 ETF 中最大的赌注——该公司预测该股到 2025 年底将突破 3,000 美元大关。</blockquote></p><p> Wood favors the automotive industry’s switch to electric vehicles and earlier thismonth started buying sharesin the U.S. listed Chinese electric automaker&nbsp;<b>Xpeng Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote>伍德支持汽车行业转向电动汽车，并于本月早些时候开始购买这家在美国上市的中国电动汽车制造商的股票<b>小鹏汽车</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Here are the other key trades on Wednesday:</p><p><blockquote>以下是周三的其他主要交易：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Bought 104,489 shares — estimated to be worth $21.3 million — in&nbsp;<b>Roku Inc</b>&nbsp;on the dip. The stock closed 7.95% lower at $203.94 a share on Wednesday.</li>  <li>Bought 705,660 shares — estimated to be worth $13.7 million — in&nbsp;<b>Robinhood Markets Inc</b>. The stock closed 1.93% higher at $19.50 a share.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>购买了 104,489 股股票，估计价值 2,130 万美元<b>Roku公司</b>在蘸酱上。该股周三收盘下跌 7.95%，至每股 203.94 美元。</li><li>购买了 705,660 股股票，估计价值 1,370 万美元<b>罗宾汉市场公司</b>该股收盘上涨 1.93%，至每股 19.50 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cathie Wood Sells Another $88M In Tesla Day After Piling Up Stake In Chinese EV Rival<blockquote>Cathie Wood 在增持中国电动汽车竞争对手股份后，在特斯拉日又出售了 8800 万美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCathie Wood Sells Another $88M In Tesla Day After Piling Up Stake In Chinese EV Rival<blockquote>Cathie Wood 在增持中国电动汽车竞争对手股份后，在特斯拉日又出售了 8800 万美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-16 11:40</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Cathie Wood</b>-led&nbsp;<b>Ark Invest</b>&nbsp;on Wednesday sold 90,455 shares — estimated to be worth $88.3 million — in&nbsp;<b>Tesla Inc</b>, booking profit in the stock as it rose after days of losses.</p><p><blockquote><b>凯西·伍德</b>-led<b>方舟投资</b>周三出售了 90,455 股股票，估计价值 8,830 万美元<b>特斯拉公司</b>该股在连续几天亏损后上涨，因此记录了利润。</blockquote></p><p> The stock pared earlier losses to close&nbsp;1.82% higher at $975.99 a share on Wednesday. The Elon Musk-led company’s shares are up about 34% so far this year and down about 7.5% over the past month.</p><p><blockquote>该股周三收盘上涨 1.82%，至每股 975.99 美元，收盘上涨 1.82%。埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）领导的这家公司的股价今年迄今已上涨约 34%，过去一个月下跌约 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Ark Invest sold the shares via the&nbsp;<b>Ark Innovation ETF</b>(BATS:ARKK), the&nbsp;<b>Ark Autonomous Technology &amp; Robotics ETF</b>(BATS:ARKQ) and the&nbsp;<b>Ark Next Generation Internet ETF</b>(BATS:ARKW)&nbsp;on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>Ark Invest 通过<b>方舟创新ETF</b>（蝙蝠：ARKK），<b>方舟自主技术与机器人 ETF</b>（蝙蝠：ARKQ）和<b>方舟下一代互联网ETF</b>（蝙蝠：ARKW）周三。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s weight in ARKK and ARKW had already slipped below the 10% threshold at 8.14% and 9.35%, respectively, ahead of Wednesday’s trade. In ARKQ, it constituted 10.59% of the portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>在周三交易前，特斯拉在 ARKK 和 ARKW 的权重已经跌破 10% 的门槛，分别为 8.14% 和 9.35%。在 ARKQ，它占投资组合的 10.59%。</blockquote></p><p> The three ETFs held 1.99 million shares — worth $1.91 billion — in Tesla, ahead of Wednesday’s trade.</p><p><blockquote>在周三交易前，这三只 ETF 在特斯拉持有 199 万股股票，价值 19.1 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Ark Invest has been booking profit in Tesla since September — selling over $3 billion worth of shares — after years of piling up shares in the electric vehicle company at far lower levels.</p><p><blockquote>Ark Invest 自 9 月份以来一直在特斯拉实现盈利，出售了价值超过 30 亿美元的股票，此前该公司多年来一直在低得多的水平囤积这家电动汽车公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla continues to be the firm's biggest bet across ETFs — a stock it predicts would hit the&nbsp;$3,000 mark by the end of 2025.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉仍然是该公司在 ETF 中最大的赌注——该公司预测该股到 2025 年底将突破 3,000 美元大关。</blockquote></p><p> Wood favors the automotive industry’s switch to electric vehicles and earlier thismonth started buying sharesin the U.S. listed Chinese electric automaker&nbsp;<b>Xpeng Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote>伍德支持汽车行业转向电动汽车，并于本月早些时候开始购买这家在美国上市的中国电动汽车制造商的股票<b>小鹏汽车</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Here are the other key trades on Wednesday:</p><p><blockquote>以下是周三的其他主要交易：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Bought 104,489 shares — estimated to be worth $21.3 million — in&nbsp;<b>Roku Inc</b>&nbsp;on the dip. The stock closed 7.95% lower at $203.94 a share on Wednesday.</li>  <li>Bought 705,660 shares — estimated to be worth $13.7 million — in&nbsp;<b>Robinhood Markets Inc</b>. The stock closed 1.93% higher at $19.50 a share.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>购买了 104,489 股股票，估计价值 2,130 万美元<b>Roku公司</b>在蘸酱上。该股周三收盘下跌 7.95%，至每股 203.94 美元。</li><li>购买了 705,660 股股票，估计价值 1,370 万美元<b>罗宾汉市场公司</b>该股收盘上涨 1.93%，至每股 19.50 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","ARKW":"ARK Next Generation Internet ETF","ROKU":"Roku Inc","HOOD":"Robinhood","XPEV":"小鹏集团","ARKQ":"ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191022113","content_text":"Cathie Wood-led Ark Invest on Wednesday sold 90,455 shares — estimated to be worth $88.3 million — in Tesla Inc, booking profit in the stock as it rose after days of losses.\nThe stock pared earlier losses to close 1.82% higher at $975.99 a share on Wednesday. The Elon Musk-led company’s shares are up about 34% so far this year and down about 7.5% over the past month.\nArk Invest sold the shares via the Ark Innovation ETF(BATS:ARKK), the Ark Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF(BATS:ARKQ) and the Ark Next Generation Internet ETF(BATS:ARKW) on Wednesday.\nTesla’s weight in ARKK and ARKW had already slipped below the 10% threshold at 8.14% and 9.35%, respectively, ahead of Wednesday’s trade. In ARKQ, it constituted 10.59% of the portfolio.\nThe three ETFs held 1.99 million shares — worth $1.91 billion — in Tesla, ahead of Wednesday’s trade.\nArk Invest has been booking profit in Tesla since September — selling over $3 billion worth of shares — after years of piling up shares in the electric vehicle company at far lower levels.\nTesla continues to be the firm's biggest bet across ETFs — a stock it predicts would hit the $3,000 mark by the end of 2025.\nWood favors the automotive industry’s switch to electric vehicles and earlier thismonth started buying sharesin the U.S. listed Chinese electric automaker Xpeng Inc.\nHere are the other key trades on Wednesday:\n\nBought 104,489 shares — estimated to be worth $21.3 million — in Roku Inc on the dip. The stock closed 7.95% lower at $203.94 a share on Wednesday.\nBought 705,660 shares — estimated to be worth $13.7 million — in Robinhood Markets Inc. The stock closed 1.93% higher at $19.50 a share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HOOD":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"ARKW":0.9,"ROKU":0.9,"ARKQ":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607297446,"gmtCreate":1639542050569,"gmtModify":1639542050798,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573359276928522","authorIdStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607297446","repostId":"1156446659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156446659","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639540344,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1156446659?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-15 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>巴菲特已将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的苹果股份增加到其全部股票投资组合的 50%，占其 6,490 亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156446659","media":"Business Insider","summary":"Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Frid","content":"<p><div> Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday. That makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $...</p><p><blockquote><div>周五，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司持有的 8.87 亿股苹果股票价值飙升至 1,590 亿美元。这使得这些股份相当于伯克希尔整个股票投资组合的一半，以及近25%的美元……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>巴菲特已将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的苹果股份增加到其全部股票投资组合的 50%，占其 6,490 亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>巴菲特已将伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的苹果股份增加到其全部股票投资组合的 50%，占其 6,490 亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Business Insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-15 11:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday. That makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $...</p><p><blockquote><div>周五，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司持有的 8.87 亿股苹果股票价值飙升至 1,590 亿美元。这使得这些股份相当于伯克希尔整个股票投资组合的一半，以及近25%的美元……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">Business Insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156446659","content_text":"Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday.\nThat makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $649 billion market capitalization.\nWarren Buffett started to build Berkshire's position in Apple in 2016 and added to it up until mid-2018.\n\nSCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS\nWarren Buffett is known for concentrating his investments to build generational wealth, and Berkshire Hathaway's stake in Apple is no better example of that investment practice.\nBerkshire's 887.1 million shares in the iPhone maker swelled to a record value of $159 billion on Friday, a 342% increase from its original cost basis of about $36 billion.That means Apple is now worth more than half of Berkshire's $293 billion equity portfolio, based on data from its third-quarter 13F filing.\nAnd assuming Berkshire hasn't trimmed its Apple position since September 30, the equity stake now represents about a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's $649 billion market capitalization.\nWhat also makes Buffett's concentration in Apple notable is that it didn't take decades to compound like most successful investments managed by Buffett. Instead, it's only been five years since Berkshire began to build its stake in Apple.\nThe conglomerate first purchased Apple shares in 2016 and continued buying them until mid-2018, when the position topped 1 billion shares after adjusting for a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. Buffett has trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple by about 12% since initially building the stake.\nBarring any changes since the most recent 13F filing, Berkshire's stock portfolio would be up 13.9% quarter-to-date, according to an analysis by Bespoke.Much of that gain has been driven by Apple's quarter-to-date gain of more than 20%.\nYear-to-date, Apple is up 31%, compared to Berkshire Hathaway's return of 26%. Apple's stock price was less than $1.00 away from hitting a $3 trillion valuation on Monday.\nBerkshire's three largest positions after Apple are Bank of America,American Express, and Coca-Cola, which make up a combined 30% of the equity portfolio's value. And Berkshire is still sitting on about $150 billion in cash that it has yet to put to work.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607080833,"gmtCreate":1639457426816,"gmtModify":1639457427046,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573359276928522","authorIdStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie","listText":"Okie","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607080833","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌了-35%以上，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在 2021 年 2 月就警告投资者，PayPal被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股票在未来 3 年内仍有超过 -50% 的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，所以我分析了这只股票，以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在 2021 年 2 月 6 日，我制作了一个视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal (PYPL) 股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的寻求阿尔法博客上分享了那个视频。从那时起，PayPal无论从绝对角度还是相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）来说都表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我警告投资者以来，股价已下跌约 -30%，较今年最高价下跌约 -38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有任何问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可以讲。价格已经被疯狂高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙述。当时的数字毫无意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这对于中长期投资者来说，应该是一个重要的教训。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难在于投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑是这样硬连线的。自从我分享了我的2月份PayPal看跌视频以来，在Seeking Alpha报道PayPal的62篇文章中，还没有一篇“看跌”的文章被写出来。主要原因是 PayPal 的说法如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不切实际。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我当前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际下购买的价格。这与我在 2021 年 2 月确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和业务回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以 10 年 CAGR 预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来估值股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益 1) 没有足够长的历史 2) 本质上不稳定，或者 3) 周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明确的长期增长模式，这使得该股作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自 2015 年以来，还没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股可能非常适合我要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长时间、更持久的衰退期间，PayPal 的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察易贝（eBay）在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，我将继续进行我的全周期盈利分析，即使我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的确切历史数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回报预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估算未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，10年后我们可能预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一场衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并在2021年的预测中运行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>从2015年到现在，PayPal的平均市盈率一直是健康的34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用 2021 年的预期盈利 4.60 美元（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为 40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年内恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的价格将会下降，10年CAGR将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报。如果恢复时间短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪回归均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且经常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散的联系。在本节中，我们将考察企业的实际收入。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道，如果我们以今天的价格收购业务并将所有收入留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是预期收益增长率。让我们从市盈率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率/市盈率）开始。目前的市盈率约为+2.46%。我喜欢这样想，如果我现在以100美元收购该公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年将从投资中获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估算公司在此期间的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率，并将该增长率应用于未来 10 年来做到这一点。这包括计算2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时间段内发生的任何股票回购（因为减少股票会增加每股收益，因为股票减少）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的比例，回购看起来比实际大得多，这里没有太多需要调整的地方。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此两者都不需要盈利增长下降来调整。这使得估计 PayPal 的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计 PayPal 的盈利增长约为 +23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，这就是我的保守主义在问自己“出于估值目的，未来 10 年的合理预期是多少？”对于企业来说，在整整十年内每年增长超过20%的收益是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年中已经这样做了）。因此，我在将所有长期远期盈利增长预测用于估值时，将其上限设定为 20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高的费用的方法。因此，对于这次估值练习，我将盈利增长假设限制在 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将把这个增长率应用于当前的收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年CAGR估计。我的想法是，如果我花100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长率，此后10年，这笔金额将以+20.00%的速度每年增长。我想知道10年后我的100美元投资总共有多少钱，我计算大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我把增长率输入复合年增长率计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务收益回报的 10 年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10 年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要来源：市场情绪回报或企业盈利回报。如果我们假设市场情绪在未来 10 年内恢复到上一个周期的平均值，那么PayPal的复合年增长率将达到 -1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的 10 年复合年增长率应该在 +5.85% 左右。如果我们把两者放在一起，我们得到的预期10年全周期CAGR为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对这类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：高于12%的CAGR是买入，低于4%的预期CAGR是卖出，4%到12%之间是持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强进入“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意根据收益购买具有安全边际的股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看待 PayPal 的估值，以便我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用我在本文中使用的相同假设和输入，从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股 126.50 美元至 164.00 美元。我目前的购买价格（包括安全边际）是 112.10 美元。低于该价格购买的投资者很有可能在中期内获得股票的丰厚回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和 2022 年，我将开始提前预测 PayPal 2022 年的收益。目前，分析师预计 2022 年每股收益为 5.25 美元。如果 PayPal 的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高 PayPal 的估值，并将其公允价值范围提高到每股 145.00 美元至 187.50 美元，安全边际买入价为每股 128.00 美元。当然，这是假设分析师保持对 2022 年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这还意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内继续在当前价格附近交易价格，它就已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上端。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一类型的分析。对于某些具有快速利润增长势头的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析，以帮助识别快速增长的企业，这些企业可能永远不会变得便宜到仅仅根据收益来收购。这种分析方法是我的私人服务周期投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于 PayPal 的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享那种“买入价格”分析产生的，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析法检查PayPal时，它产生的买入价为 144.90 美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间位置。这是假设 PayPal 的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，并且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到 2022 年 2 月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约一年后我就其高估值向投资者发出警告。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的下滑是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的 PayPal 股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他高估值科技股也会经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能会在 2022 年下跌。对于跑赢大盘这类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化投资的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票简单地停滞几年而一事无成，也有少数股票设法保持上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal所经历的那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌了-35%以上，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在 2021 年 2 月就警告投资者，PayPal被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股票在未来 3 年内仍有超过 -50% 的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，所以我分析了这只股票，以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在 2021 年 2 月 6 日，我制作了一个视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal (PYPL) 股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的寻求阿尔法博客上分享了那个视频。从那时起，PayPal无论从绝对角度还是相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）来说都表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我警告投资者以来，股价已下跌约 -30%，较今年最高价下跌约 -38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有任何问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可以讲。价格已经被疯狂高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙述。当时的数字毫无意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这对于中长期投资者来说，应该是一个重要的教训。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难在于投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑是这样硬连线的。自从我分享了我的2月份PayPal看跌视频以来，在Seeking Alpha报道PayPal的62篇文章中，还没有一篇“看跌”的文章被写出来。主要原因是 PayPal 的说法如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不切实际。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我当前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际下购买的价格。这与我在 2021 年 2 月确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和业务回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以 10 年 CAGR 预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来估值股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益 1) 没有足够长的历史 2) 本质上不稳定，或者 3) 周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明确的长期增长模式，这使得该股作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自 2015 年以来，还没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股可能非常适合我要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长时间、更持久的衰退期间，PayPal 的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察易贝（eBay）在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，我将继续进行我的全周期盈利分析，即使我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的确切历史数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回报预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估算未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，10年后我们可能预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一场衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并在2021年的预测中运行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>从2015年到现在，PayPal的平均市盈率一直是健康的34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用 2021 年的预期盈利 4.60 美元（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为 40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年内恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的价格将会下降，10年CAGR将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报。如果恢复时间短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪回归均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且经常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散的联系。在本节中，我们将考察企业的实际收入。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道，如果我们以今天的价格收购业务并将所有收入留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是预期收益增长率。让我们从市盈率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率/市盈率）开始。目前的市盈率约为+2.46%。我喜欢这样想，如果我现在以100美元收购该公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年将从投资中获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估算公司在此期间的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率，并将该增长率应用于未来 10 年来做到这一点。这包括计算2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时间段内发生的任何股票回购（因为减少股票会增加每股收益，因为股票减少）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的比例，回购看起来比实际大得多，这里没有太多需要调整的地方。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此两者都不需要盈利增长下降来调整。这使得估计 PayPal 的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计 PayPal 的盈利增长约为 +23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，这就是我的保守主义在问自己“出于估值目的，未来 10 年的合理预期是多少？”对于企业来说，在整整十年内每年增长超过20%的收益是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年中已经这样做了）。因此，我在将所有长期远期盈利增长预测用于估值时，将其上限设定为 20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高的费用的方法。因此，对于这次估值练习，我将盈利增长假设限制在 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将把这个增长率应用于当前的收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年CAGR估计。我的想法是，如果我花100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长率，此后10年，这笔金额将以+20.00%的速度每年增长。我想知道10年后我的100美元投资总共有多少钱，我计算大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我把增长率输入复合年增长率计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务收益回报的 10 年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10 年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要来源：市场情绪回报或企业盈利回报。如果我们假设市场情绪在未来 10 年内恢复到上一个周期的平均值，那么PayPal的复合年增长率将达到 -1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的 10 年复合年增长率应该在 +5.85% 左右。如果我们把两者放在一起，我们得到的预期10年全周期CAGR为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对这类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：高于12%的CAGR是买入，低于4%的预期CAGR是卖出，4%到12%之间是持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强进入“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意根据收益购买具有安全边际的股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看待 PayPal 的估值，以便我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用我在本文中使用的相同假设和输入，从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股 126.50 美元至 164.00 美元。我目前的购买价格（包括安全边际）是 112.10 美元。低于该价格购买的投资者很有可能在中期内获得股票的丰厚回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和 2022 年，我将开始提前预测 PayPal 2022 年的收益。目前，分析师预计 2022 年每股收益为 5.25 美元。如果 PayPal 的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高 PayPal 的估值，并将其公允价值范围提高到每股 145.00 美元至 187.50 美元，安全边际买入价为每股 128.00 美元。当然，这是假设分析师保持对 2022 年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这还意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内继续在当前价格附近交易价格，它就已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上端。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一类型的分析。对于某些具有快速利润增长势头的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析，以帮助识别快速增长的企业，这些企业可能永远不会变得便宜到仅仅根据收益来收购。这种分析方法是我的私人服务周期投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于 PayPal 的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享那种“买入价格”分析产生的，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析法检查PayPal时，它产生的买入价为 144.90 美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间位置。这是假设 PayPal 的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，并且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到 2022 年 2 月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约一年后我就其高估值向投资者发出警告。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的下滑是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的 PayPal 股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他高估值科技股也会经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能会在 2022 年下跌。对于跑赢大盘这类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化投资的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票简单地停滞几年而一事无成，也有少数股票设法保持上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal所经历的那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604818515,"gmtCreate":1639368877434,"gmtModify":1639368877681,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573359276928522","authorIdStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604818515","repostId":"1171271872","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171271872","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639348466,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171271872?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 06:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、FedEx、Lenner、Campbell Soup 和本周值得关注的其他股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171271872","media":"Barrons","summary":"The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.Earnings reports this week are few, but will include Campbell Soup on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian Automotive, and Adobe on Thursday; and","content":"<p>The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s&nbsp;last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.</p><p><blockquote>本周投资者的主要活动将是美联储利率制定委员会 2021 年的最后一次会议。官员们最近的评论更加鹰派，可能会宣布加速每月资产购买缩减规模的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会为期两天的会议将于周二和周三举行。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings reports this week are few, but will include&nbsp;Campbell Soup&nbsp;on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian&nbsp;Automotive, and&nbsp;Adobe&nbsp;on Thursday; and&nbsp;Darden Restaurants&nbsp;on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的财报很少，但将包括周二的金宝汤；Lenner、埃森哲、联邦快递、Rivian Automotive 和 Adobe 周四；周五的达顿餐厅。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括美国劳工统计局周二公布的 11 月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预计总体指数环比上涨0.55%，核心PPI上涨0.4%。这两者都将大致与 10 月份的生产者通胀率持平。</blockquote></p><p> Other data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment&nbsp;index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>其他数据还包括周二公布的全国独立企业联合会（National Federation of Independent Businesses）的情绪指数、周三公布的人口普查局（Census Bureau）的 11 月份零售销售支出以及周四公布的 11 月份房屋开工数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/13</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/13星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> J.Jill&nbsp;and&nbsp;PHX Minerals&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>J.Jill 和 PHX Minerals 在评级举办盈利会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/14</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 12/14</b></blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup, Barnes Group, and&nbsp;Avaya Holdings&nbsp;host investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Campbell Soup、Barnes Group 和 Avaya Holdings 举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布了11月份的生产者价格指数。普遍预计环比上涨 0.55%，不包括食品和能源的核心 PPI 将上涨 0.4%。相比之下，10 月份分别增长了 0.6% 和 0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国联合会</b>独立企业报告了11月份的指数，该指数调查了全国约5000名小企业主。看涨期权的预期读数为98.3，而10月份为98.2。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/15</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/15星期三</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market Committee</b> concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场委员会</b>结束为期两天的会议，政策制定者将讨论加快逐步减少每月证券购买的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b> export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>BLS报告</b>11月份进出口价格数据。预计出口价格将环比上涨 0.5%，而进口价格将上涨 0.5%。相比之下，10 月份的涨幅分别为 1.5% 和 1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>住宅建筑商发布了12月份的NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。普遍估计读数为84，而11月份的读数为83。该指数去年底达到90的峰值，房屋建筑商仍然看好房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>11 月份零售支出报告。经季节性调整后，预计零售额环比增长 0.7%，而 10 月份为 1.7%。不包括汽车，支出预计增长 0.8%，而上一时期为 1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 12/16</b></blockquote></p><p> Heico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Heico、Lennar、埃森哲、联邦快递、捷普、Adobe、Rivian汽车和诺信等公司在评级举办了财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>releases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份新的住宅建设报告。经季节性调整后的新屋开工率预计为156.3万套，而10月份为152万套。当房屋开始挖掘时，房屋开始计算。新房建设许可证预计为165.5万份，而10月份为165.3万份。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bank of England</b> announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>英格兰银行</b>宣布利率决定并公布会议纪要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布11月份工业生产数据。继 10 月份上涨 1.6% 之后，经济学家预计上涨 0.6%。产能利用率预计为 76.8%，与 10 月份的 76.4% 大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/17星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> Steelcase,Darden Restaurants, and&nbsp;Quanex Building Products&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Steelcase、Darden Restaurants 和 Quanex Building Products 在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、FedEx、Lenner、Campbell Soup 和本周值得关注的其他股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、FedEx、Lenner、Campbell Soup 和本周值得关注的其他股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 06:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s&nbsp;last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.</p><p><blockquote>本周投资者的主要活动将是美联储利率制定委员会 2021 年的最后一次会议。官员们最近的评论更加鹰派，可能会宣布加速每月资产购买缩减规模的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会为期两天的会议将于周二和周三举行。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings reports this week are few, but will include&nbsp;Campbell Soup&nbsp;on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian&nbsp;Automotive, and&nbsp;Adobe&nbsp;on Thursday; and&nbsp;Darden Restaurants&nbsp;on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的财报很少，但将包括周二的金宝汤；Lenner、埃森哲、联邦快递、Rivian Automotive 和 Adobe 周四；周五的达顿餐厅。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括美国劳工统计局周二公布的 11 月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预计总体指数环比上涨0.55%，核心PPI上涨0.4%。这两者都将大致与 10 月份的生产者通胀率持平。</blockquote></p><p> Other data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment&nbsp;index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>其他数据还包括周二公布的全国独立企业联合会（National Federation of Independent Businesses）的情绪指数、周三公布的人口普查局（Census Bureau）的 11 月份零售销售支出以及周四公布的 11 月份房屋开工数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/13</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/13星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> J.Jill&nbsp;and&nbsp;PHX Minerals&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>J.Jill 和 PHX Minerals 在评级举办盈利会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/14</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 12/14</b></blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup, Barnes Group, and&nbsp;Avaya Holdings&nbsp;host investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Campbell Soup、Barnes Group 和 Avaya Holdings 举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布了11月份的生产者价格指数。普遍预计环比上涨 0.55%，不包括食品和能源的核心 PPI 将上涨 0.4%。相比之下，10 月份分别增长了 0.6% 和 0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国联合会</b>独立企业报告了11月份的指数，该指数调查了全国约5000名小企业主。看涨期权的预期读数为98.3，而10月份为98.2。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/15</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/15星期三</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market Committee</b> concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场委员会</b>结束为期两天的会议，政策制定者将讨论加快逐步减少每月证券购买的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b> export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>BLS报告</b>11月份进出口价格数据。预计出口价格将环比上涨 0.5%，而进口价格将上涨 0.5%。相比之下，10 月份的涨幅分别为 1.5% 和 1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>住宅建筑商发布了12月份的NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。普遍估计读数为84，而11月份的读数为83。该指数去年底达到90的峰值，房屋建筑商仍然看好房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>11 月份零售支出报告。经季节性调整后，预计零售额环比增长 0.7%，而 10 月份为 1.7%。不包括汽车，支出预计增长 0.8%，而上一时期为 1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 12/16</b></blockquote></p><p> Heico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Heico、Lennar、埃森哲、联邦快递、捷普、Adobe、Rivian汽车和诺信等公司在评级举办了财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>releases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份新的住宅建设报告。经季节性调整后的新屋开工率预计为156.3万套，而10月份为152万套。当房屋开始挖掘时，房屋开始计算。新房建设许可证预计为165.5万份，而10月份为165.3万份。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bank of England</b> announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>英格兰银行</b>宣布利率决定并公布会议纪要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布11月份工业生产数据。继 10 月份上涨 1.6% 之后，经济学家预计上涨 0.6%。产能利用率预计为 76.8%，与 10 月份的 76.4% 大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/17星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> Steelcase,Darden Restaurants, and&nbsp;Quanex Building Products&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Steelcase、Darden Restaurants 和 Quanex Building Products 在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-fedex-rivian-lennar-campbell-adobe-51639330550?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PHX":"潘汉德尔油气","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","CPB":"金宝汤","HEI":"海科航空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","JILL":"J.Jill Inc.","DRI":"达登饭店","ACN":"埃森哲","ADBE":"Adobe","FDX":"联邦快递","LEN":"莱纳建筑公司"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-fedex-rivian-lennar-campbell-adobe-51639330550?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171271872","content_text":"The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.\nEarnings reports this week are few, but will include Campbell Soup on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian Automotive, and Adobe on Thursday; and Darden Restaurants on Friday.\nEconomic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.\nOther data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.\nMonday 12/13\nJ.Jill and PHX Minerals host earnings conference calls.\nTuesday 12/14\nCampbell Soup, Barnes Group, and Avaya Holdings host investor days.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.\nThe National Federation of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.\nWednesday 12/15\nThe Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.\nThe BLS reports export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.\nThe National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.\nThe Census Bureau reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.\nThursday 12/16\nHeico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.\nThe Census Bureaureleases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.\nThe Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.\nThe Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.\nFriday 12/17\nSteelcase,Darden Restaurants, and Quanex Building Products host earnings conference calls.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LEN":0.9,"SCS":0.9,"JILL":0.9,"HEI":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"PHX":0.9,"AVYA":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"FDX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DRI":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"CPB":0.9,"ACN":0.9,"ADBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604051834,"gmtCreate":1639287147333,"gmtModify":1639287147617,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573359276928522","authorIdStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604051834","repostId":"1103250344","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103250344","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639280672,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1103250344?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-12 11:44","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: IoT solutions, wine, and satellites in a 3 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：物联网解决方案、葡萄酒和卫星在 IPO 第三周</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103250344","media":"renaissancecap...","summary":"The IPO market is expected to stay relatively quiet in the week ahead with three IPOs scheduled to r","content":"<p>The IPO market is expected to stay relatively quiet in the week ahead with three IPOs scheduled to raise $789 million.</p><p><blockquote>预计未来一周IPO市场将保持相对平静，三次IPO计划筹集7.89亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> IoT solutions developer<b>Samsara</b>(IOT) plans to raise $753 million at an $11.6 billion market cap. This \"internet-of-things\" company provides a cloud-based platform that connects the assets of businesses with physical operations, enhancing operational efficiency and asset and employee productivity. Fast growing but highly unprofitable, Samsara saw double-digit growth for customers with $100k+ ARR in the 9mo FY22.</p><p><blockquote>物联网解决方案开发商<b>轮回</b>（物联网）计划以116亿美元的市值筹集7.53亿美元。这家“物联网”公司提供了一个基于云的平台，将企业的资产与物理运营连接起来，提高了运营效率以及资产和员工的生产力。快速增长但高度无利可图，Samsara 在 2022 财年的 9 个月中，ARR 超过 10 万美元的客户实现了两位数的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Wine brand<b>Fresh Vine Wine</b>(VINE) plans to raise $21 million at a $116 million market cap. This celebrity-founded company produces low carb, low calorie premium wines. Growing but highly unprofitable, Fresh Vine sells its wines through wholesale, retail, and DTC channels, and is able to conduct wholesale distribution in all 50 states and Puerto Rico.</p><p><blockquote>葡萄酒品牌<b>新鲜葡萄酒</b>(VINE) 计划以 1.16 亿美元的市值筹集 2100 万美元。这家名人创办的公司生产低碳水化合物、低热量的优质葡萄酒。Fresh Vine正在增长，但非常无利可图，它通过批发、零售和DTC渠道销售葡萄酒，并能够在所有50个州和波多黎各进行批发分销。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap satellite developer<b>Sidus Space</b>(SIDU) plans to raise $15 million at an $81 million market cap. This company provides commercial satellite services such as design, manufacture, launch, and data collection. &nbsp;Sidus Space has generated space-related manufacturing revenues to date, but is highly unprofitable with negative gross margin in the 9mo21.</p><p><blockquote>微帽卫星显影剂<b>Sidus空间</b>（SIDU）计划以8100万美元的市值筹集1500万美元。该公司提供商业卫星服务，如设计、制造、发射和数据收集。Sidus Space 迄今为止已产生与航天相关的制造收入，但在 2021 年 9 月毛利率为负，高度无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ead80e54642569e2b7b368c8d50dc265\" tg-width=\"1409\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619493174116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: IoT solutions, wine, and satellites in a 3 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：物联网解决方案、葡萄酒和卫星在 IPO 第三周</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: IoT solutions, wine, and satellites in a 3 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：物联网解决方案、葡萄酒和卫星在 IPO 第三周</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">renaissancecap...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-12 11:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The IPO market is expected to stay relatively quiet in the week ahead with three IPOs scheduled to raise $789 million.</p><p><blockquote>预计未来一周IPO市场将保持相对平静，三次IPO计划筹集7.89亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> IoT solutions developer<b>Samsara</b>(IOT) plans to raise $753 million at an $11.6 billion market cap. This \"internet-of-things\" company provides a cloud-based platform that connects the assets of businesses with physical operations, enhancing operational efficiency and asset and employee productivity. Fast growing but highly unprofitable, Samsara saw double-digit growth for customers with $100k+ ARR in the 9mo FY22.</p><p><blockquote>物联网解决方案开发商<b>轮回</b>（物联网）计划以116亿美元的市值筹集7.53亿美元。这家“物联网”公司提供了一个基于云的平台，将企业的资产与物理运营连接起来，提高了运营效率以及资产和员工的生产力。快速增长但高度无利可图，Samsara 在 2022 财年的 9 个月中，ARR 超过 10 万美元的客户实现了两位数的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Wine brand<b>Fresh Vine Wine</b>(VINE) plans to raise $21 million at a $116 million market cap. This celebrity-founded company produces low carb, low calorie premium wines. Growing but highly unprofitable, Fresh Vine sells its wines through wholesale, retail, and DTC channels, and is able to conduct wholesale distribution in all 50 states and Puerto Rico.</p><p><blockquote>葡萄酒品牌<b>新鲜葡萄酒</b>(VINE) 计划以 1.16 亿美元的市值筹集 2100 万美元。这家名人创办的公司生产低碳水化合物、低热量的优质葡萄酒。Fresh Vine正在增长，但非常无利可图，它通过批发、零售和DTC渠道销售葡萄酒，并能够在所有50个州和波多黎各进行批发分销。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap satellite developer<b>Sidus Space</b>(SIDU) plans to raise $15 million at an $81 million market cap. This company provides commercial satellite services such as design, manufacture, launch, and data collection. &nbsp;Sidus Space has generated space-related manufacturing revenues to date, but is highly unprofitable with negative gross margin in the 9mo21.</p><p><blockquote>微帽卫星显影剂<b>Sidus空间</b>（SIDU）计划以8100万美元的市值筹集1500万美元。该公司提供商业卫星服务，如设计、制造、发射和数据收集。Sidus Space 迄今为止已产生与航天相关的制造收入，但在 2021 年 9 月毛利率为负，高度无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ead80e54642569e2b7b368c8d50dc265\" tg-width=\"1409\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89474/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-IoT-solutions-wine-and-satellites-in-a-3-IPO-week\">renaissancecap...</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IOT":"Samsara, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SIDU":"Sidus Space Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89474/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-IoT-solutions-wine-and-satellites-in-a-3-IPO-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103250344","content_text":"The IPO market is expected to stay relatively quiet in the week ahead with three IPOs scheduled to raise $789 million.\nIoT solutions developerSamsara(IOT) plans to raise $753 million at an $11.6 billion market cap. This \"internet-of-things\" company provides a cloud-based platform that connects the assets of businesses with physical operations, enhancing operational efficiency and asset and employee productivity. Fast growing but highly unprofitable, Samsara saw double-digit growth for customers with $100k+ ARR in the 9mo FY22.\nWine brandFresh Vine Wine(VINE) plans to raise $21 million at a $116 million market cap. This celebrity-founded company produces low carb, low calorie premium wines. Growing but highly unprofitable, Fresh Vine sells its wines through wholesale, retail, and DTC channels, and is able to conduct wholesale distribution in all 50 states and Puerto Rico.\nMicro-cap satellite developerSidus Space(SIDU) plans to raise $15 million at an $81 million market cap. This company provides commercial satellite services such as design, manufacture, launch, and data collection.  Sidus Space has generated space-related manufacturing revenues to date, but is highly unprofitable with negative gross margin in the 9mo21.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VINE":0,".IXIC":0,"IOT":0,"SIDU":0,".DJI":0,".SPX":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":846028284,"gmtCreate":1636036047105,"gmtModify":1636036047424,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573359276928522","idStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846028284","repostId":"1171402677","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171402677","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1636035531,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171402677?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Semiconductor stocks surged in morning trading<blockquote>半导体股早盘交易中飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171402677","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Semiconductor stocks surged in morning trading.Qualcomm,Nvidia,GlobalFoundries,AMD,ASML&nbsp;and&nbsp;Micron&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 13%.","content":"<p>Semiconductor stocks surged in morning trading.Qualcomm,Nvidia,GlobalFoundries,AMD,ASML&nbsp;and&nbsp;Micron&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 13%.</p><p><blockquote>半导体股在早盘交易中飙升.高通、英伟达、GlobalFoundries、AMD、ASML和美光上涨1%至13%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f286b571119726651d6c73eb7454e5\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiconductor stocks surged in morning trading<blockquote>半导体股早盘交易中飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-04 22:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Semiconductor stocks surged in morning trading.Qualcomm,Nvidia,GlobalFoundries,AMD,ASML&nbsp;and&nbsp;Micron&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 13%.</p><p><blockquote>半导体股在早盘交易中飙升.高通、英伟达、GlobalFoundries、AMD、ASML和美光上涨1%至13%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f286b571119726651d6c73eb7454e5\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171402677","content_text":"Semiconductor stocks surged in morning trading.Qualcomm,Nvidia,GlobalFoundries,AMD,ASML and Micron climbed between 1% and 13%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QCOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":800219599,"gmtCreate":1627304543311,"gmtModify":1633766352009,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573359276928522","idStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like it","listText":"Like it","text":"Like it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800219599","repostId":"1184014483","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":601804992,"gmtCreate":1638504060180,"gmtModify":1638504060300,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573359276928522","idStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601804992","repostId":"1107671752","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":140956637,"gmtCreate":1625625227129,"gmtModify":1633938937294,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573359276928522","idStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment. Tks","listText":"Like and comment. Tks","text":"Like and comment. Tks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140956637","repostId":"1171645479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":600263531,"gmtCreate":1638159354981,"gmtModify":1638159355137,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573359276928522","idStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600263531","repostId":"1124072014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124072014","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638140765,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1124072014?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-29 07:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"November jobs report: What to know this week<blockquote>11 月就业报告：本周须知</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124072014","media":"yahoo","summary":"As investors return from the Thanksgiving-shortened trading week, focus will shift to the U.S. labor","content":"<p>As investors return from the Thanksgiving-shortened trading week, focus will shift to the U.S. labor market.</p><p><blockquote>随着投资者从感恩节缩短的交易周归来，焦点将转向美国劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department's monthly jobs report due for release on Friday is set to provide an updated snapshot of the strength in hiring and labor force participation in the U.S. economy. Consensus economists are looking for a half-million jobs to have returned in November, with the pace of hiring slowing only slightly from October's 531,000 gain. The unemployment rate is also expected to improve further to 4.5% from October's 4.6%, reaching the lowest level since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部将于周五发布的月度就业报告将提供美国经济中招聘和劳动力参与实力的最新快照。共识经济学家预计 11 月份将恢复 50 万个工作岗位，招聘速度仅比 10 月份的 53.1 万个工作岗位略有放缓。失业率预计也将从10月份的4.6%进一步改善至4.5%，达到2020年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by 500,000 in November, but the growing risk of a winter COVID wave and a dwindling supply of available workers will weigh on jobs growth soon,\" wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, in a note last week.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席北美经济学家保罗·阿什沃斯(Paul Ashworth)写道：“我们预计11月份非农就业人数将增加50万人，但冬季新冠疫情浪潮的风险越来越大以及可用工人供应的减少将很快影响就业增长。”上周的一份报告中。</blockquote></p><p> \"Employment growth can’t continue at this pace for much longer unless the labor force stages a more notable recovery. If anything, labor supply could<i>worsen</i>over the coming months as the federal vaccine mandate covering 100 [million] workers begins on January 4,\" Ashworth added. \"That suggests wage growth will remain strong, and we expect a 0.4% [month-over-month] rise in average hourly earnings in October.\"</p><p><blockquote>“除非劳动力出现更明显的复苏，否则就业增长不可能以这种速度持续太久。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是劳动力供应可能会下降。”<i>恶化</i>阿什沃斯补充说：“在未来几个月里，覆盖 1 亿 [万] 工人的联邦疫苗授权将于 1 月 4 日开始。这表明工资增长将保持强劲，我们预计 10 月份平均时薪将[环比]增长 0.4%”。</blockquote></p><p> On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 5.0%, accelerating even further after October's already marked 4.9% rise and representing the fastest wage growth rate since February.</p><p><blockquote>与去年同期相比，平均时薪预计将增长 5.0%，继 10 月份已经增长 4.9% 之后进一步加速，这是自 2 月份以来最快的工资增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Growing average wages and a tight labor market — while a positive for consumers and their ability to spend — has also stoked concerns over persistent inflation. Last week's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for October showed an annual jump of 5.0% in the index, or the biggest rise since 1990. And the core PCE, or the Fed's preferred inflation gauge stripping out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 4.1% year-over-year — the most in three decades.</p><p><blockquote>平均工资增长和劳动力市场紧张——虽然对消费者及其消费能力有利——也加剧了人们对持续通胀的担忧。经济分析局上周公布的 10 月份个人消费支出 (PCE) 平减指数显示，该指数年增长率为 5.0%，为 1990 年以来最大涨幅。核心 PCE（美联储首选的剔除波动的食品和能源价格的通胀指标）同比上涨 4.1%，为三十年来最高。</blockquote></p><p> Other recent data have homed in on the tight labor market and presaged a potentially strong November jobs report. Last week'sinitial jobless claims fell to a 52-year low of 199,000, taking out both the prior pandemic-era low and pre-pandemic average for new first-time filings. This served as yet another point underscoring the steep competition for labor among U.S. employers, with companies attempting to hire and retain their existing workforces amid widespread labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>最近的其他数据反映了紧张的劳动力市场，并预示着 11 月份就业报告可能会强劲。上周，首次申请失业救济人数降至 19.9 万人的 52 年来最低点，打破了疫情时代之前的低点和疫情之前新首次申请失业救济人数的平均水平。这再次凸显了美国雇主之间激烈的劳动力竞争，在劳动力普遍短缺的情况下，公司试图雇用和留住现有劳动力。</blockquote></p><p> Even given these lingering scarcities, the labor force participation rate has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. The civilian labor force was still down by nearly 3 million participants compared to February 2020, with lingering concerns over the virus and adesire by many working-age individuals to seek out new roles with better flexibility and benefitsstill keeping many individuals on the sidelines of the workforce. Consensus economists expect the labor force participation rate to tick up only slightly in November to reach 61.7%, growing from October's 61.6% but coming in well below the 63.3% rate from February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>即使考虑到这些挥之不去的短缺，劳动力参与率仍未恢复到大流行前的水平。与2020年2月相比，平民劳动力仍减少了近300万参与者，对病毒的担忧挥之不去，许多工作年龄的人渴望寻找具有更好灵活性和福利的新角色，这仍然使许多人处于劳动力的边缘。共识经济学家预计，11 月份劳动力参与率只会小幅上升，达到 61.7%，高于 10 月份的 61.6%，但远低于 2020 年 2 月的 63.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Returning the economy back to pre-pandemic labor force participation levels and ensuring job gains are seen equitably across different groups has become a key focus for the Federal Reserve. And the distance still left to make up on these fronts has also been the biggest factor keeping the Fed ultra-accommodative with its monetary policy support, even after a parade of hotter-than-expected inflation reports that would appear to warrant a more hawkish policy tilt and a quicker-than-expected hike to interest rates.Fed Chair Jerome Powell's renomination to remain as head of the central bankfurther suggests the Fed's focus on the labor market as a critical informing factor for monetary policy will remain.</p><p><blockquote>让经济恢复到大流行前的劳动力参与水平，并确保不同群体的就业增长得到公平对待，已成为美联储的一个重点。这些方面仍有待弥合的距离也是美联储在货币政策支持方面保持超宽松的最大因素，即使在一系列比预期更热门的通胀报告之后，这些报告似乎需要更加鹰派的政策倾斜和加息速度快于预期。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔再次被提名继续担任央行行长，这进一步表明美联储将继续关注劳动力市场作为货币政策的关键信息因素。</blockquote></p><p> \"Market views for future Fed rate increases have been pulled forward aggressively in response to evidence that elevated inflation pressures are likely to persist for longer,\" wrote Deutsche Bank economist Justin Weidner in a note last week. \"However, as Chair Powell's November press conference made evident, prospects for the labor market to return to maximum employment remain a critical consideration for when the Fed will eventually begin to actively tighten monetary policy.\"</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行经济学家贾斯汀·魏德纳在上周的一份报告中写道：“由于有证据表明通胀压力上升可能会持续更长时间，市场对美联储未来加息的看法已被大幅提前。”“然而，正如鲍威尔主席 11 月新闻发布会所表明的那样，劳动力市场恢复最大就业的前景仍然是美联储最终何时开始积极收紧货币政策的关键考虑因素。”</blockquote></p><p> Economic calendar</p><p><blockquote>经济日历</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Monday:</b>Pending home sales, month-over-month, October (0.7% expected, -2.3% in September); Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Activity Index, November (17.0 expected, 14.6 in October)</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>星期一：</b>10 月份待售房屋销售环比（预期 0.7%，9 月份为 -2.3%）；达拉斯美联储 11 月制造业活动指数（预期 17.0，10 月 14.6）</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li><b>Tuesday:</b>FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, September (1.2% expected, 1.0% in August); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, September (1.30% expected, 1.17% in August); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, September (19.66% during prior month); MNI Chicago PMI, November (67.0 expected, 68.4 in October); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, November (110.0 expected, 113.8 in October)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期二：</b>FHFA房价指数，9月环比（预期1.2%，8月1.0%）；S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 个城市综合指数，9 月环比（预期 1.30%，8 月 1.17%）；S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 个城市综合指数，9 月（上月为 19.66%）；MNI芝加哥采购经理人指数，11月（预期67.0，10月68.4）；世界大型企业联合会消费者信心指数，11 月（预期 110.0，10 月 113.8）</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Wednesday:</b>MBA Mortgage Applications, November 26 (1.8% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, November (515,000 expected, 571,000 in October); Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, November final (59.1 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, October (0.5% expected, -0.5% in September); ISM Manufacturing, November (61.0 expected, 60.8 in October); Federal Reserve releases Beige Book</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期三：</b>MBA 抵押贷款申请，11 月 26 日（前一周 1.8%）；11 月 ADP 就业变化（预计 515,000 人，10 月 571,000 人）；Markit 美国 11 月制造业 PMI 最终值（上月为 59.1）；10 月份建筑支出环比（预期 0.5%，9 月份为 -0.5%）；ISM 制造业，11 月（预期 61.0，10 月 60.8）；美联储发布褐皮书</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Thursday:</b>Challenger job cuts, November (-71.7% in October); Initial jobless claims, week ended Nov. 27 (199,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, Nov. 20 (2.049 during prior week)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期四：</b>挑战者裁员，11 月（10 月-71.7%）；截至 11 月 27 日当周首次申请失业救济人数（前一周为 199,000 人）；持续索赔，11 月 20 日（前一周 2,049）</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Friday:</b>Change in non-farm payrolls, November (500,000 expected, 531,000 in October); Unemployment rate, November (4.5% expected, 4.6% in October); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, November (0.4% expected, 0.4% in October); Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, November (5.0% expected, 4.9% in October); Markit U.S. Services PMI, November final (57.0 in prior print); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, November final (56.5 in prior print); ISM Services Index, November (65.0 expected, 66.7 in October); Factory Orders, October (0.5% expected, 0.2% in September); Durable Goods Orders, October final (-0.5% in prior print)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期五：</b>11 月非农就业人数变化（预计 500,000 人，10 月 531,000 人）；11月失业率（预期4.5%，10月4.6%）；11 月份平均小时收益环比（预期 0.4%，10 月份 0.4%）；11 月份平均小时收入同比（预期 5.0%，10 月份 4.9%）；Markit 美国服务业 PMI，11 月最终值（先前印刷为 57.0）；Markit 美国综合 PMI，11 月最终值（先前印刷为 56.5）；ISM服务业指数，11月（预期65.0，10月66.7）；10月工厂订单（预期0.5%，9月0.2%）；耐用品订单，10 月份最终订单（先前印刷-0.5%）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Earnings calendar</p><p><blockquote>收益日历</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Monday:</b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>星期一：</b><i>没有计划发布的重要报告</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Tuesday:</b>Salesforce.com (CRM) after market close</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期二：</b>Salesforce.com (CRM) 收盘后</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Wednesday:</b>PVH Corp. (PVH) after market close</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期三：</b>PVH Corp. (PVH) 收盘后</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Thursday:</b>Dollar General (DG), Kroger (KR) before market open; Ulta Beauty (ULTA) after market close</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期四：</b>Dollar General (DG)、Kroger (KR) 开市前；Ulta Beauty (ULTA) 收盘后</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Friday:</b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期五：</b><i>没有计划发布的重要报告</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>November jobs report: What to know this week<blockquote>11 月就业报告：本周须知</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNovember jobs report: What to know this week<blockquote>11 月就业报告：本周须知</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-29 07:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As investors return from the Thanksgiving-shortened trading week, focus will shift to the U.S. labor market.</p><p><blockquote>随着投资者从感恩节缩短的交易周归来，焦点将转向美国劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department's monthly jobs report due for release on Friday is set to provide an updated snapshot of the strength in hiring and labor force participation in the U.S. economy. Consensus economists are looking for a half-million jobs to have returned in November, with the pace of hiring slowing only slightly from October's 531,000 gain. The unemployment rate is also expected to improve further to 4.5% from October's 4.6%, reaching the lowest level since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部将于周五发布的月度就业报告将提供美国经济中招聘和劳动力参与实力的最新快照。共识经济学家预计 11 月份将恢复 50 万个工作岗位，招聘速度仅比 10 月份的 53.1 万个工作岗位略有放缓。失业率预计也将从10月份的4.6%进一步改善至4.5%，达到2020年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by 500,000 in November, but the growing risk of a winter COVID wave and a dwindling supply of available workers will weigh on jobs growth soon,\" wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, in a note last week.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席北美经济学家保罗·阿什沃斯(Paul Ashworth)写道：“我们预计11月份非农就业人数将增加50万人，但冬季新冠疫情浪潮的风险越来越大以及可用工人供应的减少将很快影响就业增长。”上周的一份报告中。</blockquote></p><p> \"Employment growth can’t continue at this pace for much longer unless the labor force stages a more notable recovery. If anything, labor supply could<i>worsen</i>over the coming months as the federal vaccine mandate covering 100 [million] workers begins on January 4,\" Ashworth added. \"That suggests wage growth will remain strong, and we expect a 0.4% [month-over-month] rise in average hourly earnings in October.\"</p><p><blockquote>“除非劳动力出现更明显的复苏，否则就业增长不可能以这种速度持续太久。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是劳动力供应可能会下降。”<i>恶化</i>阿什沃斯补充说：“在未来几个月里，覆盖 1 亿 [万] 工人的联邦疫苗授权将于 1 月 4 日开始。这表明工资增长将保持强劲，我们预计 10 月份平均时薪将[环比]增长 0.4%”。</blockquote></p><p> On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 5.0%, accelerating even further after October's already marked 4.9% rise and representing the fastest wage growth rate since February.</p><p><blockquote>与去年同期相比，平均时薪预计将增长 5.0%，继 10 月份已经增长 4.9% 之后进一步加速，这是自 2 月份以来最快的工资增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Growing average wages and a tight labor market — while a positive for consumers and their ability to spend — has also stoked concerns over persistent inflation. Last week's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for October showed an annual jump of 5.0% in the index, or the biggest rise since 1990. And the core PCE, or the Fed's preferred inflation gauge stripping out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 4.1% year-over-year — the most in three decades.</p><p><blockquote>平均工资增长和劳动力市场紧张——虽然对消费者及其消费能力有利——也加剧了人们对持续通胀的担忧。经济分析局上周公布的 10 月份个人消费支出 (PCE) 平减指数显示，该指数年增长率为 5.0%，为 1990 年以来最大涨幅。核心 PCE（美联储首选的剔除波动的食品和能源价格的通胀指标）同比上涨 4.1%，为三十年来最高。</blockquote></p><p> Other recent data have homed in on the tight labor market and presaged a potentially strong November jobs report. Last week'sinitial jobless claims fell to a 52-year low of 199,000, taking out both the prior pandemic-era low and pre-pandemic average for new first-time filings. This served as yet another point underscoring the steep competition for labor among U.S. employers, with companies attempting to hire and retain their existing workforces amid widespread labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>最近的其他数据反映了紧张的劳动力市场，并预示着 11 月份就业报告可能会强劲。上周，首次申请失业救济人数降至 19.9 万人的 52 年来最低点，打破了疫情时代之前的低点和疫情之前新首次申请失业救济人数的平均水平。这再次凸显了美国雇主之间激烈的劳动力竞争，在劳动力普遍短缺的情况下，公司试图雇用和留住现有劳动力。</blockquote></p><p> Even given these lingering scarcities, the labor force participation rate has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. The civilian labor force was still down by nearly 3 million participants compared to February 2020, with lingering concerns over the virus and adesire by many working-age individuals to seek out new roles with better flexibility and benefitsstill keeping many individuals on the sidelines of the workforce. Consensus economists expect the labor force participation rate to tick up only slightly in November to reach 61.7%, growing from October's 61.6% but coming in well below the 63.3% rate from February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>即使考虑到这些挥之不去的短缺，劳动力参与率仍未恢复到大流行前的水平。与2020年2月相比，平民劳动力仍减少了近300万参与者，对病毒的担忧挥之不去，许多工作年龄的人渴望寻找具有更好灵活性和福利的新角色，这仍然使许多人处于劳动力的边缘。共识经济学家预计，11 月份劳动力参与率只会小幅上升，达到 61.7%，高于 10 月份的 61.6%，但远低于 2020 年 2 月的 63.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Returning the economy back to pre-pandemic labor force participation levels and ensuring job gains are seen equitably across different groups has become a key focus for the Federal Reserve. And the distance still left to make up on these fronts has also been the biggest factor keeping the Fed ultra-accommodative with its monetary policy support, even after a parade of hotter-than-expected inflation reports that would appear to warrant a more hawkish policy tilt and a quicker-than-expected hike to interest rates.Fed Chair Jerome Powell's renomination to remain as head of the central bankfurther suggests the Fed's focus on the labor market as a critical informing factor for monetary policy will remain.</p><p><blockquote>让经济恢复到大流行前的劳动力参与水平，并确保不同群体的就业增长得到公平对待，已成为美联储的一个重点。这些方面仍有待弥合的距离也是美联储在货币政策支持方面保持超宽松的最大因素，即使在一系列比预期更热门的通胀报告之后，这些报告似乎需要更加鹰派的政策倾斜和加息速度快于预期。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔再次被提名继续担任央行行长，这进一步表明美联储将继续关注劳动力市场作为货币政策的关键信息因素。</blockquote></p><p> \"Market views for future Fed rate increases have been pulled forward aggressively in response to evidence that elevated inflation pressures are likely to persist for longer,\" wrote Deutsche Bank economist Justin Weidner in a note last week. \"However, as Chair Powell's November press conference made evident, prospects for the labor market to return to maximum employment remain a critical consideration for when the Fed will eventually begin to actively tighten monetary policy.\"</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行经济学家贾斯汀·魏德纳在上周的一份报告中写道：“由于有证据表明通胀压力上升可能会持续更长时间，市场对美联储未来加息的看法已被大幅提前。”“然而，正如鲍威尔主席 11 月新闻发布会所表明的那样，劳动力市场恢复最大就业的前景仍然是美联储最终何时开始积极收紧货币政策的关键考虑因素。”</blockquote></p><p> Economic calendar</p><p><blockquote>经济日历</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Monday:</b>Pending home sales, month-over-month, October (0.7% expected, -2.3% in September); Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Activity Index, November (17.0 expected, 14.6 in October)</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>星期一：</b>10 月份待售房屋销售环比（预期 0.7%，9 月份为 -2.3%）；达拉斯美联储 11 月制造业活动指数（预期 17.0，10 月 14.6）</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li><b>Tuesday:</b>FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, September (1.2% expected, 1.0% in August); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, September (1.30% expected, 1.17% in August); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, September (19.66% during prior month); MNI Chicago PMI, November (67.0 expected, 68.4 in October); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, November (110.0 expected, 113.8 in October)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期二：</b>FHFA房价指数，9月环比（预期1.2%，8月1.0%）；S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 个城市综合指数，9 月环比（预期 1.30%，8 月 1.17%）；S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 个城市综合指数，9 月（上月为 19.66%）；MNI芝加哥采购经理人指数，11月（预期67.0，10月68.4）；世界大型企业联合会消费者信心指数，11 月（预期 110.0，10 月 113.8）</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Wednesday:</b>MBA Mortgage Applications, November 26 (1.8% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, November (515,000 expected, 571,000 in October); Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, November final (59.1 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, October (0.5% expected, -0.5% in September); ISM Manufacturing, November (61.0 expected, 60.8 in October); Federal Reserve releases Beige Book</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期三：</b>MBA 抵押贷款申请，11 月 26 日（前一周 1.8%）；11 月 ADP 就业变化（预计 515,000 人，10 月 571,000 人）；Markit 美国 11 月制造业 PMI 最终值（上月为 59.1）；10 月份建筑支出环比（预期 0.5%，9 月份为 -0.5%）；ISM 制造业，11 月（预期 61.0，10 月 60.8）；美联储发布褐皮书</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Thursday:</b>Challenger job cuts, November (-71.7% in October); Initial jobless claims, week ended Nov. 27 (199,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, Nov. 20 (2.049 during prior week)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期四：</b>挑战者裁员，11 月（10 月-71.7%）；截至 11 月 27 日当周首次申请失业救济人数（前一周为 199,000 人）；持续索赔，11 月 20 日（前一周 2,049）</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Friday:</b>Change in non-farm payrolls, November (500,000 expected, 531,000 in October); Unemployment rate, November (4.5% expected, 4.6% in October); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, November (0.4% expected, 0.4% in October); Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, November (5.0% expected, 4.9% in October); Markit U.S. Services PMI, November final (57.0 in prior print); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, November final (56.5 in prior print); ISM Services Index, November (65.0 expected, 66.7 in October); Factory Orders, October (0.5% expected, 0.2% in September); Durable Goods Orders, October final (-0.5% in prior print)</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期五：</b>11 月非农就业人数变化（预计 500,000 人，10 月 531,000 人）；11月失业率（预期4.5%，10月4.6%）；11 月份平均小时收益环比（预期 0.4%，10 月份 0.4%）；11 月份平均小时收入同比（预期 5.0%，10 月份 4.9%）；Markit 美国服务业 PMI，11 月最终值（先前印刷为 57.0）；Markit 美国综合 PMI，11 月最终值（先前印刷为 56.5）；ISM服务业指数，11月（预期65.0，10月66.7）；10月工厂订单（预期0.5%，9月0.2%）；耐用品订单，10 月份最终订单（先前印刷-0.5%）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Earnings calendar</p><p><blockquote>收益日历</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Monday:</b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>星期一：</b><i>没有计划发布的重要报告</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Tuesday:</b>Salesforce.com (CRM) after market close</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期二：</b>Salesforce.com (CRM) 收盘后</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Wednesday:</b>PVH Corp. (PVH) after market close</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期三：</b>PVH Corp. (PVH) 收盘后</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Thursday:</b>Dollar General (DG), Kroger (KR) before market open; Ulta Beauty (ULTA) after market close</p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期四：</b>Dollar General (DG)、Kroger (KR) 开市前；Ulta Beauty (ULTA) 收盘后</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Friday:</b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b>星期五：</b><i>没有计划发布的重要报告</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/november-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-144428419.html\">yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRM":"赛富时"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/november-jobs-report-what-to-know-this-week-144428419.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124072014","content_text":"As investors return from the Thanksgiving-shortened trading week, focus will shift to the U.S. labor market.\nThe Labor Department's monthly jobs report due for release on Friday is set to provide an updated snapshot of the strength in hiring and labor force participation in the U.S. economy. Consensus economists are looking for a half-million jobs to have returned in November, with the pace of hiring slowing only slightly from October's 531,000 gain. The unemployment rate is also expected to improve further to 4.5% from October's 4.6%, reaching the lowest level since March 2020.\n\"We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by 500,000 in November, but the growing risk of a winter COVID wave and a dwindling supply of available workers will weigh on jobs growth soon,\" wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, in a note last week.\n\"Employment growth can’t continue at this pace for much longer unless the labor force stages a more notable recovery. If anything, labor supply couldworsenover the coming months as the federal vaccine mandate covering 100 [million] workers begins on January 4,\" Ashworth added. \"That suggests wage growth will remain strong, and we expect a 0.4% [month-over-month] rise in average hourly earnings in October.\"\nOn a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 5.0%, accelerating even further after October's already marked 4.9% rise and representing the fastest wage growth rate since February.\nGrowing average wages and a tight labor market — while a positive for consumers and their ability to spend — has also stoked concerns over persistent inflation. Last week's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for October showed an annual jump of 5.0% in the index, or the biggest rise since 1990. And the core PCE, or the Fed's preferred inflation gauge stripping out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 4.1% year-over-year — the most in three decades.\nOther recent data have homed in on the tight labor market and presaged a potentially strong November jobs report. Last week'sinitial jobless claims fell to a 52-year low of 199,000, taking out both the prior pandemic-era low and pre-pandemic average for new first-time filings. This served as yet another point underscoring the steep competition for labor among U.S. employers, with companies attempting to hire and retain their existing workforces amid widespread labor shortages.\nEven given these lingering scarcities, the labor force participation rate has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. The civilian labor force was still down by nearly 3 million participants compared to February 2020, with lingering concerns over the virus and adesire by many working-age individuals to seek out new roles with better flexibility and benefitsstill keeping many individuals on the sidelines of the workforce. Consensus economists expect the labor force participation rate to tick up only slightly in November to reach 61.7%, growing from October's 61.6% but coming in well below the 63.3% rate from February 2020.\nReturning the economy back to pre-pandemic labor force participation levels and ensuring job gains are seen equitably across different groups has become a key focus for the Federal Reserve. And the distance still left to make up on these fronts has also been the biggest factor keeping the Fed ultra-accommodative with its monetary policy support, even after a parade of hotter-than-expected inflation reports that would appear to warrant a more hawkish policy tilt and a quicker-than-expected hike to interest rates.Fed Chair Jerome Powell's renomination to remain as head of the central bankfurther suggests the Fed's focus on the labor market as a critical informing factor for monetary policy will remain.\n\"Market views for future Fed rate increases have been pulled forward aggressively in response to evidence that elevated inflation pressures are likely to persist for longer,\" wrote Deutsche Bank economist Justin Weidner in a note last week. \"However, as Chair Powell's November press conference made evident, prospects for the labor market to return to maximum employment remain a critical consideration for when the Fed will eventually begin to actively tighten monetary policy.\"\nEconomic calendar\n\nMonday:Pending home sales, month-over-month, October (0.7% expected, -2.3% in September); Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Activity Index, November (17.0 expected, 14.6 in October)\nTuesday:FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, September (1.2% expected, 1.0% in August); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, September (1.30% expected, 1.17% in August); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, September (19.66% during prior month); MNI Chicago PMI, November (67.0 expected, 68.4 in October); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, November (110.0 expected, 113.8 in October)\nWednesday:MBA Mortgage Applications, November 26 (1.8% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, November (515,000 expected, 571,000 in October); Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, November final (59.1 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, October (0.5% expected, -0.5% in September); ISM Manufacturing, November (61.0 expected, 60.8 in October); Federal Reserve releases Beige Book\nThursday:Challenger job cuts, November (-71.7% in October); Initial jobless claims, week ended Nov. 27 (199,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, Nov. 20 (2.049 during prior week)\nFriday:Change in non-farm payrolls, November (500,000 expected, 531,000 in October); Unemployment rate, November (4.5% expected, 4.6% in October); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, November (0.4% expected, 0.4% in October); Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, November (5.0% expected, 4.9% in October); Markit U.S. Services PMI, November final (57.0 in prior print); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, November final (56.5 in prior print); ISM Services Index, November (65.0 expected, 66.7 in October); Factory Orders, October (0.5% expected, 0.2% in September); Durable Goods Orders, October final (-0.5% in prior print)\n\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday:No notable reports scheduled for release\nTuesday:Salesforce.com (CRM) after market close\nWednesday:PVH Corp. (PVH) after market close\nThursday:Dollar General (DG), Kroger (KR) before market open; Ulta Beauty (ULTA) after market close\nFriday:No notable reports scheduled for release","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":934,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870668922,"gmtCreate":1636612120454,"gmtModify":1636612120563,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573359276928522","idStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870668922","repostId":"2182213053","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":917,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829661598,"gmtCreate":1633500294067,"gmtModify":1633500294371,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573359276928522","idStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829661598","repostId":"1103782575","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103782575","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633486462,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1103782575?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（太）担心十月份的市场崩盘</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103782575","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously cras","content":"<p><div> New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008. But the marketisn't always a terrifying place to...</p><p><blockquote><div>纽约（CNN Business）——十月通常是华尔街阴森恐怖的一个月。众所周知，股市在 1929 年 10 月、1987 年以及最近的 2008 年崩盘。但是市场并不总是一个可怕的地方……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（太）担心十月份的市场崩盘</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（太）担心十月份的市场崩盘</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 10:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008. But the marketisn't always a terrifying place to...</p><p><blockquote><div>纽约（CNN Business）——十月通常是华尔街阴森恐怖的一个月。众所周知，股市在 1929 年 10 月、1987 年以及最近的 2008 年崩盘。但是市场并不总是一个可怕的地方……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103782575","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.\nBut the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up in October.\nAccording to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.\n\"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"\nAnd it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.\nSince 1999, the S&P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.\n\"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.\nMany risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks\nOf course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.\nThe debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.\n\"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier & Associates, said in a report last week.\nThat said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.\nStocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.\nWith that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.\nYes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.\nBut although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.\n\"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842246022,"gmtCreate":1636188758957,"gmtModify":1636188759265,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573359276928522","idStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842246022","repostId":"1173813098","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840568512,"gmtCreate":1635660981563,"gmtModify":1635660981697,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573359276928522","idStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840568512","repostId":"1104228860","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":894204157,"gmtCreate":1628826305079,"gmtModify":1633689160362,"author":{"id":"3573359276928522","authorId":"3573359276928522","name":"Dave123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efffe8dee569870cacb59635a243862c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573359276928522","idStr":"3573359276928522"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894204157","repostId":"1188620903","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}