wetporridge的个人主页 - 老虎社区

wetporridge

wetporridge

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0勋章

2021-07-12

Please like my comment

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2021-06-22

Cool, stuff

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2021-07-02

Like my post pls

ROKU: The Next Step<blockquote>ROKU：下一步</blockquote>

2021-06-30

Cool leh thiz

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2021-06-26

5 sleeve trad 3 sleeve classic coffee

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2021-06-25

This is cool stuff

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2021-06-19

Help me no t

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2021-06-05

Liked and followed by

3 Top Robinhood Stocks Wall Street Thinks Will Soar 25% or More<blockquote>华尔街认为Robinhood 3只顶级股票将飙升25%或更多</blockquote>

2021-07-15

Hello hi

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2021-06-15

This is good news

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2021-11-05

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ok

2021-07-20

Good

Tesla, Local Rivals Nio, Xpeng, Li Growing Together, Not Cutting Each Other's Market Share, Say Analysts<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉、本土竞争对手蔚来、小鹏汽车、理想汽车共同成长，不会削减彼此的市场份额</blockquote>

2021-06-30

Hello this is so fun

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2021-06-27

This is, cool stuffs

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2021-06-20

Booooo this is bad

Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote>

2021-06-19

Wow this, is good

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2021-06-18

Cool stuff

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2021-06-16

Cool stuffs

General Motors shares surges more than 3% in moring trading<blockquote>通用汽车股价早盘飙升逾3%</blockquote>

2021-05-18

This is so true and acccurate

JD Logistics launches Hong Kong IPO to raise up to US$3.4 billion<blockquote>京东物流启动香港IPO募资至多34亿美元</blockquote>

2021-07-16

Cool man

Dow jumps above 35,000 as retail sales top expectations<blockquote>零售销售超出预期，道指跃升至35,000点以上</blockquote>

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Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843788827,"gmtCreate":1635859033619,"gmtModify":1635859033619,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573376359688247","authorIdStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woo","listText":"Woo","text":"Woo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843788827","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? 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Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2062,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":837520422,"gmtCreate":1629900505166,"gmtModify":1631888842577,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573376359688247","authorIdStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$</a>likeme","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$</a>likeme","text":"$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$likeme","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cd861576fd186ca2806b1e8c1d7992","width":"1080","height":"2068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837520422","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178977474,"gmtCreate":1626786460998,"gmtModify":1631890333725,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573376359688247","authorIdStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ddddd","listText":"Ddddd","text":"Ddddd","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0662474f19a04a98a1425c7afbcaf1f4","width":"1080","height":"2168"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178977474","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178977158,"gmtCreate":1626786431474,"gmtModify":1631890333738,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573376359688247","authorIdStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178977158","repostId":"1144099744","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144099744","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1626784245,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144099744?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla, Local Rivals Nio, Xpeng, Li Growing Together, Not Cutting Each Other's Market Share, Say Analysts<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉、本土竞争对手蔚来、小鹏汽车、理想汽车共同成长，不会削减彼此的市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144099744","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Tesla Inc and local electric vehicle rivals such asNio Inc are growing the electric vehicle segment together in China and not eating into each other's market share, Zhongtai Securities analysts said, asreported by cnEVpost.What Happened:Chinese electric vehicle makers such as Nio,Xpeng Inc,Li Auto Inc andBYD Co along with Teslareported robust delivery numbersin June.Tesla has stepped up the competition in Chinaafter introducinga lower-priced Model Y variant. The strategy has paid off as the Elon","content":"<p><b>Tesla Inc</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) and local electric vehicle rivals such as<b>Nio Inc</b>(NYSE:NIO) are growing the electric vehicle segment together&nbsp;in China and not eating into each other's market share, Zhongtai Securities analysts said, asreported&nbsp;by cnEVpost.</p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉公司</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）和当地电动汽车竞争对手，如<b>蔚来公司</b>据cnEVpost报道，中泰证券分析师表示，（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）正在共同发展中国的电动汽车市场，而不是蚕食彼此的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>Chinese electric vehicle makers such as Nio,<b>Xpeng Inc</b>(NYSE:XPEV),<b>Li Auto Inc</b>(NASDAQ:LI) and<b>BYD Co</b>(OTC:BYDDY) along with Teslareported robust delivery numbersin June.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>蔚来等中国电动汽车制造商，<b>小鹏汽车</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV），<b>理想汽车公司</b>（纳斯达克：LI）及<b>比亚迪公司</b>（场外交易代码：BYDDY）以及特斯拉报告的6月份交付量强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has stepped up the competition in Chinaafter introducinga lower-priced Model Y variant. The strategy has paid off as the Elon Musk-led company has reportedly secured a flood of orders but raised fears of doom and gloom for China's new carmakers.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在推出价格较低的Model Y车型后，加剧了在中国的竞争。这一战略得到了回报，据报道，埃隆·马斯克领导的公司获得了大量订单，但引发了人们对中国新汽车制造商厄运和悲观的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Zhongtai Securities analyst sees the move as overblown as China's new carmakers are competing differently both in terms of demand and pricing.</p><p><blockquote>中泰证券分析师认为此举被夸大了，因为中国新造车企业在需求和定价方面的竞争都有所不同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Matters:</b>Tesla has introduced a more affordable variant of electric mid-size SUV Model Y in China, which qualifies for a subsidy as well as it is sold under RMB 300,000 ($46,000), the benchmark. Deliveries are expected to begin in August.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么重要：</b>特斯拉在中国推出了一款更实惠的电动中型SUV Model Y，该车有资格获得补贴，基准售价低于30万元人民币（4.6万美元）。预计将于8月开始交付。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/955b414508f48ef07615be308fe8be84\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"485\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Tesla’s biggest rival Nio at the moment operates a portfolio that is more expensive and not eligible for the subsidies as they are all priced over the RMB 300,000 limit.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉最大的竞争对手蔚来目前运营的投资组合价格更高，并且没有资格获得补贴，因为它们的定价都超过了30万元人民币的限额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford Motor Co</b>(NYSE:F) too hasadded another variantof its all-electric sports utility vehicle Mustang Mach-E in China for under RMB 300,000 ($46,000), thus qualifying it for state-led subsidies.</p><p><blockquote><b>福特汽车公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）也在中国推出了另一款全电动运动型多功能车野马Mach-E，售价低于30万元人民币（4.6万美元），从而有资格获得国家主导的补贴。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action:</b>Tesla shares closed 0.31% higher at $646.22 on Monday. Nio closed 1.29% higher at $43.35.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势：</b>特斯拉股价周一收盘上涨0.31%，至646.22美元。蔚来收涨1.29%，报43.35美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla, Local Rivals Nio, Xpeng, Li Growing Together, Not Cutting Each Other's Market Share, Say Analysts<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉、本土竞争对手蔚来、小鹏汽车、理想汽车共同成长，不会削减彼此的市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla, Local Rivals Nio, Xpeng, Li Growing Together, Not Cutting Each Other's Market Share, Say Analysts<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉、本土竞争对手蔚来、小鹏汽车、理想汽车共同成长，不会削减彼此的市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-20 20:30</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Tesla Inc</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) and local electric vehicle rivals such as<b>Nio Inc</b>(NYSE:NIO) are growing the electric vehicle segment together&nbsp;in China and not eating into each other's market share, Zhongtai Securities analysts said, asreported&nbsp;by cnEVpost.</p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉公司</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）和当地电动汽车竞争对手，如<b>蔚来公司</b>据cnEVpost报道，中泰证券分析师表示，（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）正在共同发展中国的电动汽车市场，而不是蚕食彼此的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>Chinese electric vehicle makers such as Nio,<b>Xpeng Inc</b>(NYSE:XPEV),<b>Li Auto Inc</b>(NASDAQ:LI) and<b>BYD Co</b>(OTC:BYDDY) along with Teslareported robust delivery numbersin June.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>蔚来等中国电动汽车制造商，<b>小鹏汽车</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV），<b>理想汽车公司</b>（纳斯达克：LI）及<b>比亚迪公司</b>（场外交易代码：BYDDY）以及特斯拉报告的6月份交付量强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has stepped up the competition in Chinaafter introducinga lower-priced Model Y variant. The strategy has paid off as the Elon Musk-led company has reportedly secured a flood of orders but raised fears of doom and gloom for China's new carmakers.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在推出价格较低的Model Y车型后，加剧了在中国的竞争。这一战略得到了回报，据报道，埃隆·马斯克领导的公司获得了大量订单，但引发了人们对中国新汽车制造商厄运和悲观的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Zhongtai Securities analyst sees the move as overblown as China's new carmakers are competing differently both in terms of demand and pricing.</p><p><blockquote>中泰证券分析师认为此举被夸大了，因为中国新造车企业在需求和定价方面的竞争都有所不同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Matters:</b>Tesla has introduced a more affordable variant of electric mid-size SUV Model Y in China, which qualifies for a subsidy as well as it is sold under RMB 300,000 ($46,000), the benchmark. Deliveries are expected to begin in August.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么重要：</b>特斯拉在中国推出了一款更实惠的电动中型SUV Model Y，该车有资格获得补贴，基准售价低于30万元人民币（4.6万美元）。预计将于8月开始交付。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/955b414508f48ef07615be308fe8be84\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"485\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Tesla’s biggest rival Nio at the moment operates a portfolio that is more expensive and not eligible for the subsidies as they are all priced over the RMB 300,000 limit.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉最大的竞争对手蔚来目前运营的投资组合价格更高，并且没有资格获得补贴，因为它们的定价都超过了30万元人民币的限额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford Motor Co</b>(NYSE:F) too hasadded another variantof its all-electric sports utility vehicle Mustang Mach-E in China for under RMB 300,000 ($46,000), thus qualifying it for state-led subsidies.</p><p><blockquote><b>福特汽车公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）也在中国推出了另一款全电动运动型多功能车野马Mach-E，售价低于30万元人民币（4.6万美元），从而有资格获得国家主导的补贴。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action:</b>Tesla shares closed 0.31% higher at $646.22 on Monday. Nio closed 1.29% higher at $43.35.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势：</b>特斯拉股价周一收盘上涨0.31%，至646.22美元。蔚来收涨1.29%，报43.35美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144099744","content_text":"Tesla Inc(NASDAQ:TSLA) and local electric vehicle rivals such asNio Inc(NYSE:NIO) are growing the electric vehicle segment together in China and not eating into each other's market share, Zhongtai Securities analysts said, asreported by cnEVpost.\nWhat Happened:Chinese electric vehicle makers such as Nio,Xpeng Inc(NYSE:XPEV),Li Auto Inc(NASDAQ:LI) andBYD Co(OTC:BYDDY) along with Teslareported robust delivery numbersin June.\nTesla has stepped up the competition in Chinaafter introducinga lower-priced Model Y variant. The strategy has paid off as the Elon Musk-led company has reportedly secured a flood of orders but raised fears of doom and gloom for China's new carmakers.\nZhongtai Securities analyst sees the move as overblown as China's new carmakers are competing differently both in terms of demand and pricing.\nWhy It Matters:Tesla has introduced a more affordable variant of electric mid-size SUV Model Y in China, which qualifies for a subsidy as well as it is sold under RMB 300,000 ($46,000), the benchmark. Deliveries are expected to begin in August.\nTesla’s biggest rival Nio at the moment operates a portfolio that is more expensive and not eligible for the subsidies as they are all priced over the RMB 300,000 limit.\nFord Motor Co(NYSE:F) too hasadded another variantof its all-electric sports utility vehicle Mustang Mach-E in China for under RMB 300,000 ($46,000), thus qualifying it for state-led subsidies.\nPrice Action:Tesla shares closed 0.31% higher at $646.22 on Monday. Nio closed 1.29% higher at $43.35.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1963,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170400090,"gmtCreate":1626444358110,"gmtModify":1631890333751,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573376359688247","authorIdStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool man","listText":"Cool man","text":"Cool man","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170400090","repostId":"1167804296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167804296","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626442279,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167804296?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 21:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow jumps above 35,000 as retail sales top expectations<blockquote>零售销售超出预期，道指跃升至35,000点以上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167804296","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock indexes rose on Friday as the latest retail sales data topped economists' expectations.\nT","content":"<p>U.S. stock indexes rose on Friday as the latest retail sales data topped economists' expectations.</p><p><blockquote>由于最新的零售销售数据超出了经济学家的预期，美国股指周五上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 80 points, or 0.23%. The S&amp;P 500 added 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨约80点，涨幅0.23%。标普500上涨0.4%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> June&nbsp;retail and food service sales&nbsp;rose 0.6%, while economists surveyed by the Dow Jones had expected a 0.4% decline. Excluding autos, those sales jumped 1.3%, beating economists' estimate of a 0.4% gain.</p><p><blockquote>6月份零售和食品服务销售额增长0.6%，而道琼斯调查的经济学家此前预计下降0.4%。不包括汽车在内，这些销售额增长了1.3%，超出了经济学家预期的0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Cyclical stocks tied to the economic recovery saw gains in early morning trading.A stabilization in bond yieldsaided this move with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing back up above 1.30%.</p><p><blockquote>与经济复苏相关的周期性股票在早盘交易中上涨。债券收益率企稳证实了这一举措，10年期国债收益率回升至1.30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> “While stock market valuations appear lofty, the global economic recovery continues to surge. Strong GDP and earnings growth, supportive fiscal and monetary policy, and a recovering labor market all support an optimistic view on stocks for the remainder of the year,” said Greg Marcus, UBS Private Wealth Management managing director.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银私人财富管理董事总经理Greg Marcus表示：“虽然股市估值看起来很高，但全球经济复苏仍在继续飙升。强劲的GDP和盈利增长、支持性的财政和货币政策以及复苏的劳动力市场都支持了对今年剩余时间股市的乐观看法。”</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America led gains in bank stocks in premarket trading. Boeing shares edged higher. Airlines, casinos, and energy stocks inched into the green.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行在盘前交易中领涨银行股。波音股价小幅走高。航空公司、赌场和能源股小幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Russell 2000 ETF, containing small cap shares more reliant on the U.S. economy, gained in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>iShares Russell 2000 ETF包含更依赖美国经济的小盘股，在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Live Nation’s stock rose in the premarket afterGoldman said the stock can rally nearly 40%as concerts return.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示，随着音乐会的回归，Live Nation的股价可能会上涨近40%，该股在盘前上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian each increased in early morning trading after Canada announced it wouldallow cruise ships to resume operationsin its waters starting Nov. 1, sooner than planned. Previously, the Canadian government extended its cruise ban until the end of February 2022.</p><p><blockquote>在加拿大宣布将允许游轮从11月1日起恢复在其水域运营（比原计划更早）后，嘉年华、皇家加勒比和挪威的股价在早盘交易中均上涨。此前，加拿大政府将邮轮禁令延长至2022年2月底。</blockquote></p><p> The moves in recovery-related stocks came even amid concerns about ultra-infectious variants of the coronavirus. Los Angeles County announced Thursday it wouldrestore an indoor mask mandate, including for fully-vaccinated people, due to a rapid and sustained increase in Covid-19 cases.</p><p><blockquote>尽管人们对冠状病毒的高传染性变种感到担忧，但与复苏相关的股票还是出现了走势。由于新冠肺炎病例快速持续增加，洛杉矶县周四宣布将恢复室内口罩强制令，包括对完全接种疫苗的人。</blockquote></p><p> Investors also digested strong earnings results from the first major week of second-quarter reports. Though some of the nation’s largest companies posted healthy profits and revenues amid the economic recovery, the reaction in the stock market has so far been muted.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还消化了第二季度报告第一个重要周的强劲盈利结果。尽管美国一些最大的公司在经济复苏中公布了健康的利润和收入，但迄今为止股市的反应一直很平静。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley’s&nbsp;second-quarter earnings report, for example, topped analysts’ expectations Thursday, yet its shares closed just 0.18% higher.</p><p><blockquote>例如，摩根士丹利周四发布的第二季度收益报告超出了分析师的预期，但其股价仅收盘上涨0.18%。</blockquote></p><p> For18 S&amp;P 500 companies that beat analyst estimates for second-quarter earnings this week, the average earnings-per-share result was 18% higher than expected. But those companies saw their shares fall 0.58% on average after reporting.</p><p><blockquote>本周第二季度盈利超出分析师预期的18家标普500公司，平均每股收益比预期高出18%。但这些公司的股价在发布报告后平均下跌0.58%。</blockquote></p><p> The soft moves in reaction to corporate earnings have contributed to a lackluster week for the S&amp;P 500, which dipped 0.2% on the week as of Thursday’s close.</p><p><blockquote>对企业盈利的疲软反应导致标普500本周表现低迷，截至周四收盘，该股本周下跌0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Much of the market’s upward pressure over the last week has come from a handful of mega-cap internet and communications stocks. Apple, Netflix, Google-parent Alphabet and Microsoft are all up this week.</p><p><blockquote>上周市场的大部分上行压力来自少数大型互联网和通信股。苹果、Netflix、谷歌母公司Alphabet和微软本周均上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street may be checking its optimism in the aftermath of the recent hotconsumer price index inflation reportand commentary from both Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen about the pace of price appreciation in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在最近热门的消费者价格指数通胀报告以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和财政部长珍妮特·耶伦对近期物价升值步伐的评论之后，华尔街可能会检查其乐观情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Yellen, who spoke to CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Thursday, said she predictsprices could continue to rise for several more months before cooling off.</p><p><blockquote>耶伦周四在CNBC的“收盘钟声”节目中表示，她预计价格可能会继续上涨几个月，然后才会降温。</blockquote></p><p> “I’m not saying that this is a one-month phenomenon. But I think over the medium term, we’ll see inflation decline back toward normal levels,” she said. “But, of course, we have to keep a careful eye on it.”</p><p><blockquote>“我并不是说这是一个月的现象。但我认为，从中期来看，我们将看到通胀回落至正常水平，”她说。“但是，当然，我们必须密切关注它。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow jumps above 35,000 as retail sales top expectations<blockquote>零售销售超出预期，道指跃升至35,000点以上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow jumps above 35,000 as retail sales top expectations<blockquote>零售销售超出预期，道指跃升至35,000点以上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-16 21:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock indexes rose on Friday as the latest retail sales data topped economists' expectations.</p><p><blockquote>由于最新的零售销售数据超出了经济学家的预期，美国股指周五上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 80 points, or 0.23%. The S&amp;P 500 added 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨约80点，涨幅0.23%。标普500上涨0.4%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> June&nbsp;retail and food service sales&nbsp;rose 0.6%, while economists surveyed by the Dow Jones had expected a 0.4% decline. Excluding autos, those sales jumped 1.3%, beating economists' estimate of a 0.4% gain.</p><p><blockquote>6月份零售和食品服务销售额增长0.6%，而道琼斯调查的经济学家此前预计下降0.4%。不包括汽车在内，这些销售额增长了1.3%，超出了经济学家预期的0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Cyclical stocks tied to the economic recovery saw gains in early morning trading.A stabilization in bond yieldsaided this move with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing back up above 1.30%.</p><p><blockquote>与经济复苏相关的周期性股票在早盘交易中上涨。债券收益率企稳证实了这一举措，10年期国债收益率回升至1.30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> “While stock market valuations appear lofty, the global economic recovery continues to surge. Strong GDP and earnings growth, supportive fiscal and monetary policy, and a recovering labor market all support an optimistic view on stocks for the remainder of the year,” said Greg Marcus, UBS Private Wealth Management managing director.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银私人财富管理董事总经理Greg Marcus表示：“虽然股市估值看起来很高，但全球经济复苏仍在继续飙升。强劲的GDP和盈利增长、支持性的财政和货币政策以及复苏的劳动力市场都支持了对今年剩余时间股市的乐观看法。”</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America led gains in bank stocks in premarket trading. Boeing shares edged higher. Airlines, casinos, and energy stocks inched into the green.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行在盘前交易中领涨银行股。波音股价小幅走高。航空公司、赌场和能源股小幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Russell 2000 ETF, containing small cap shares more reliant on the U.S. economy, gained in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>iShares Russell 2000 ETF包含更依赖美国经济的小盘股，在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Live Nation’s stock rose in the premarket afterGoldman said the stock can rally nearly 40%as concerts return.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示，随着音乐会的回归，Live Nation的股价可能会上涨近40%，该股在盘前上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian each increased in early morning trading after Canada announced it wouldallow cruise ships to resume operationsin its waters starting Nov. 1, sooner than planned. Previously, the Canadian government extended its cruise ban until the end of February 2022.</p><p><blockquote>在加拿大宣布将允许游轮从11月1日起恢复在其水域运营（比原计划更早）后，嘉年华、皇家加勒比和挪威的股价在早盘交易中均上涨。此前，加拿大政府将邮轮禁令延长至2022年2月底。</blockquote></p><p> The moves in recovery-related stocks came even amid concerns about ultra-infectious variants of the coronavirus. Los Angeles County announced Thursday it wouldrestore an indoor mask mandate, including for fully-vaccinated people, due to a rapid and sustained increase in Covid-19 cases.</p><p><blockquote>尽管人们对冠状病毒的高传染性变种感到担忧，但与复苏相关的股票还是出现了走势。由于新冠肺炎病例快速持续增加，洛杉矶县周四宣布将恢复室内口罩强制令，包括对完全接种疫苗的人。</blockquote></p><p> Investors also digested strong earnings results from the first major week of second-quarter reports. Though some of the nation’s largest companies posted healthy profits and revenues amid the economic recovery, the reaction in the stock market has so far been muted.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还消化了第二季度报告第一个重要周的强劲盈利结果。尽管美国一些最大的公司在经济复苏中公布了健康的利润和收入，但迄今为止股市的反应一直很平静。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley’s&nbsp;second-quarter earnings report, for example, topped analysts’ expectations Thursday, yet its shares closed just 0.18% higher.</p><p><blockquote>例如，摩根士丹利周四发布的第二季度收益报告超出了分析师的预期，但其股价仅收盘上涨0.18%。</blockquote></p><p> For18 S&amp;P 500 companies that beat analyst estimates for second-quarter earnings this week, the average earnings-per-share result was 18% higher than expected. But those companies saw their shares fall 0.58% on average after reporting.</p><p><blockquote>本周第二季度盈利超出分析师预期的18家标普500公司，平均每股收益比预期高出18%。但这些公司的股价在发布报告后平均下跌0.58%。</blockquote></p><p> The soft moves in reaction to corporate earnings have contributed to a lackluster week for the S&amp;P 500, which dipped 0.2% on the week as of Thursday’s close.</p><p><blockquote>对企业盈利的疲软反应导致标普500本周表现低迷，截至周四收盘，该股本周下跌0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Much of the market’s upward pressure over the last week has come from a handful of mega-cap internet and communications stocks. Apple, Netflix, Google-parent Alphabet and Microsoft are all up this week.</p><p><blockquote>上周市场的大部分上行压力来自少数大型互联网和通信股。苹果、Netflix、谷歌母公司Alphabet和微软本周均上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street may be checking its optimism in the aftermath of the recent hotconsumer price index inflation reportand commentary from both Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen about the pace of price appreciation in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在最近热门的消费者价格指数通胀报告以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和财政部长珍妮特·耶伦对近期物价升值步伐的评论之后，华尔街可能会检查其乐观情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Yellen, who spoke to CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Thursday, said she predictsprices could continue to rise for several more months before cooling off.</p><p><blockquote>耶伦周四在CNBC的“收盘钟声”节目中表示，她预计价格可能会继续上涨几个月，然后才会降温。</blockquote></p><p> “I’m not saying that this is a one-month phenomenon. But I think over the medium term, we’ll see inflation decline back toward normal levels,” she said. “But, of course, we have to keep a careful eye on it.”</p><p><blockquote>“我并不是说这是一个月的现象。但我认为，从中期来看，我们将看到通胀回落至正常水平，”她说。“但是，当然，我们必须密切关注它。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167804296","content_text":"U.S. stock indexes rose on Friday as the latest retail sales data topped economists' expectations.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 80 points, or 0.23%. The S&P 500 added 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3%.\nJune retail and food service sales rose 0.6%, while economists surveyed by the Dow Jones had expected a 0.4% decline. Excluding autos, those sales jumped 1.3%, beating economists' estimate of a 0.4% gain.\nCyclical stocks tied to the economic recovery saw gains in early morning trading.A stabilization in bond yieldsaided this move with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing back up above 1.30%.\n“While stock market valuations appear lofty, the global economic recovery continues to surge. Strong GDP and earnings growth, supportive fiscal and monetary policy, and a recovering labor market all support an optimistic view on stocks for the remainder of the year,” said Greg Marcus, UBS Private Wealth Management managing director.\nBank of America led gains in bank stocks in premarket trading. Boeing shares edged higher. Airlines, casinos, and energy stocks inched into the green.\nThe iShares Russell 2000 ETF, containing small cap shares more reliant on the U.S. economy, gained in premarket trading.\nLive Nation’s stock rose in the premarket afterGoldman said the stock can rally nearly 40%as concerts return.\nShares of Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian each increased in early morning trading after Canada announced it wouldallow cruise ships to resume operationsin its waters starting Nov. 1, sooner than planned. Previously, the Canadian government extended its cruise ban until the end of February 2022.\nThe moves in recovery-related stocks came even amid concerns about ultra-infectious variants of the coronavirus. Los Angeles County announced Thursday it wouldrestore an indoor mask mandate, including for fully-vaccinated people, due to a rapid and sustained increase in Covid-19 cases.\nInvestors also digested strong earnings results from the first major week of second-quarter reports. Though some of the nation’s largest companies posted healthy profits and revenues amid the economic recovery, the reaction in the stock market has so far been muted.\nMorgan Stanley’s second-quarter earnings report, for example, topped analysts’ expectations Thursday, yet its shares closed just 0.18% higher.\nFor18 S&P 500 companies that beat analyst estimates for second-quarter earnings this week, the average earnings-per-share result was 18% higher than expected. But those companies saw their shares fall 0.58% on average after reporting.\nThe soft moves in reaction to corporate earnings have contributed to a lackluster week for the S&P 500, which dipped 0.2% on the week as of Thursday’s close.\nMuch of the market’s upward pressure over the last week has come from a handful of mega-cap internet and communications stocks. Apple, Netflix, Google-parent Alphabet and Microsoft are all up this week.\nWall Street may be checking its optimism in the aftermath of the recent hotconsumer price index inflation reportand commentary from both Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen about the pace of price appreciation in the near term.\nYellen, who spoke to CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Thursday, said she predictsprices could continue to rise for several more months before cooling off.\n“I’m not saying that this is a one-month phenomenon. But I think over the medium term, we’ll see inflation decline back toward normal levels,” she said. “But, of course, we have to keep a careful eye on it.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147255267,"gmtCreate":1626360796459,"gmtModify":1631890333763,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573376359688247","authorIdStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello hi","listText":"Hello hi","text":"Hello hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147255267","repostId":"1176592870","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146410159,"gmtCreate":1626096194371,"gmtModify":1631890333776,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573376359688247","authorIdStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like my comment","listText":"Please like my comment","text":"Please like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146410159","repostId":"2150653548","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141894981,"gmtCreate":1625845309043,"gmtModify":1631890333789,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573376359688247","authorIdStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool stuff","listText":"Cool stuff","text":"Cool stuff","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141894981","repostId":"1155625151","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154086503,"gmtCreate":1625460589702,"gmtModify":1631890333801,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573376359688247","authorIdStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rrrrrrr and I ft&nbsp;","listText":"Rrrrrrr and I ft&nbsp;","text":"Rrrrrrr and I ft","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58290d50190335069e1189940a8d79a8","width":"1080","height":"2978"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154086503","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156544000,"gmtCreate":1625232751300,"gmtModify":1631890333816,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573376359688247","authorIdStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my post pls","listText":"Like my post pls","text":"Like my post pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156544000","repostId":"1129664890","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129664890","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625232423,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129664890?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ROKU: The Next Step<blockquote>ROKU：下一步</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129664890","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.\nThe stock price d","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.</li>  <li>The stock price depends on whether it uses the capital to the value of shareholders.</li>  <li>Astronomical gains in top-line growth and cash flow are witnesses. However, high P/S and P/CF are still a concern.</li>  <li>We're risking it by going long as the early signs of acquisitions have been encouraging.</li>  <li>Tread lightly with the risks involved.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b00a4fa1d444c1076f1bb7fa30c1199\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"566\"><span>Arturo Holmes/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ROKU的股票处于平衡状态，因为它首次报告剩余。</li><li>股票价格取决于它是否使用资本对股东的价值。</li><li>营收增长和现金流的天文数字增长就是见证。然而，高P/S和P/CF仍然是一个问题。</li><li>由于收购的早期迹象令人鼓舞，我们冒着做多的风险。</li><li>对其中的风险要轻描淡写。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>阿图罗·霍姆斯/盖蒂图片社娱乐公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> For those who aren't aware, Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) is the leading TV streaming platform in the United States, with an active user base of over&nbsp;50 million. The company partners with TV brands which allows it to manufacture and sell its content via its platform.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，Roku（纳斯达克：Roku）是美国领先的电视流媒体平台，活跃用户群超过5000万。该公司与电视品牌合作，使其能够通过其平台制作和销售内容。</blockquote></p><p> The company operates through two segments namely platform and player.</p><p><blockquote>该公司通过两个部门运营，即平台和播放器。</blockquote></p><p> The platform segment allows users to gain access to television and movies. The player segment offers streaming players, audio products, and accessories through the ROKU name. Further to the business is significant ad revenue as most tech companies have these days.</p><p><blockquote>平台部分允许用户观看电视和电影。播放器部门通过ROKU名称提供流媒体播放器、音频产品和配件。除了这项业务之外，还有大量的广告收入，就像如今大多数科技公司一样。</blockquote></p><p> ROKU is still in its growth stage and has gained significant traction from investors&nbsp;since listing&nbsp;on the Nasdaq in 2017.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU仍处于成长期，自2017年在纳斯达克上市以来，已获得投资者的大力关注。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials&nbsp;</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Top-Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>顶线</b></blockquote></p><p> ROKU reported&nbsp;63.46%&nbsp;in year-over-year revenue growth the past year. The company has a 5-year average growth rate in revenue of&nbsp;40.9%, which ranks in the 99th sector percentile. ROKU's core business is growing well, with&nbsp;101%&nbsp;year-over-year growth in revenue due to an increase in platform usage of 4.5% in the past quarter. We think that ad revenue will add sustainability to the firm's revenue as competition rises through improved products from Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)streaming services. ROKU has entered into a&nbsp;strategic alliance&nbsp;with Nielsen to access their ad content. ROKU also completed asset acquisitions in the deal by acquiring Nielsen's AVA and DAI technologies to improve content recognition and ad insertion.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU去年的收入同比增长了63.46%。该公司的收入5年平均增长率为40.9%，在行业中排名第99位。ROKU的核心业务增长良好，由于上个季度平台使用量增长了4.5%，收入同比增长了101%。我们认为，随着苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）和谷歌（纳斯达克：GOOG）（纳斯达克：GOOGL）流媒体服务改进产品带来的竞争加剧，广告收入将增加公司收入的可持续性。ROKU已经与尼尔森建立了战略联盟，以访问他们的广告内容。ROKU还在该交易中完成了资产收购，收购了尼尔森的AVA和DAI技术，以提高内容识别和广告插入。</blockquote></p><p> We think that added efficiency and synergies will improve the sustainability of the company's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，提高效率和协同效应将提高公司盈利的可持续性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>User Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>用户增长</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7660020b92ea61b62566e9ac2ac6cd02\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ROKU has undoubtedly expanded rapidly during the lockdown, and this is an anomaly that can't be denied. But something worth looking at is the company's gradual increase before the pandemic. We don't think that ROKU is a one-hit-wonder by any stretch of the imagination, and user growth looks set to continue growing.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU在封锁期间无疑迅速扩张，这是一个不可否认的异常现象。但值得关注的是该公司在大流行之前的逐步增长。无论怎么想象，我们都不认为ROKU是一个昙花一现的奇迹，而且用户增长似乎将继续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27f287b57a10fb5d043ef20b96b548a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\"><span>Source: GuruFocus</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：GuruFocus</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To consolidate the argument, we've pulled up the return on invested capital chart. The ROIC is a good indicator of a company's competitive stance within an industry. The recent growth in ROIC indicates that ROKU is still expanding well in itsindustry. We think that increased third-party distributors and increased investment in the ROKU channels contributed immensely to the uptick in ROIC. Furthermore, factors such as Disney+ and NBC Universal Peacock, HBO Max, and Discovery+ have and will stimulate further user growth.</p><p><blockquote>为了巩固论点，我们调出了投资资本回报率图表。ROIC是公司在行业内竞争地位的良好指标。最近投资回报率的增长表明ROKU在其行业中仍在良好扩张。我们认为，第三方分销商的增加和对ROKU渠道投资的增加极大地促进了投资回报率的上升。此外，迪士尼+和NBC环球孔雀、HBO Max和Discovery+等因素已经并将刺激用户进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom-Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe252a78a1b9f030d0518689d2bfb148\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"109\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/731e79eb9769e07f6760b43a0670f444\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"129\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Very important to us are net income and normalized net income. The reasons are that the company finally turned a profit in Q-1 and now has residual to work with. The factor is unusual items. ROKU's normalized net income excludes unusual earnings, the fact that they're still reporting positive normalized net income is a big plus.</p><p><blockquote>对我们来说非常重要的是净利润和正常化净利润。原因是该公司最终在第一季度扭亏为盈，现在还有剩余可供处理。因素是不寻常的项目。ROKU的正常化净利润不包括异常收益，事实上他们仍然报告正的正常化净利润是一个很大的优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Multiples</b></p><p><blockquote><b>倍数</b></blockquote></p><p> Seeing that ROKU is now profitable, we can apply a few multiples for analysis. To start with, we looked at the price to sales. This metric can be used at any stage of the business cycle. ROKU is in a growth phase, and we think it's not easy to interpret the other multiples without looking at this one first.(The base data can be found on&nbsp;Seeking Alpha)</p><p><blockquote>看到ROKU现在盈利了，我们可以套用几个倍数进行分析。首先，我们看了价格与销售额的关系。该指标可用于业务周期的任何阶段。ROKU正处于增长阶段，我们认为如果不先看看这个倍数，就很难解释其他倍数。（基本数据可以在Seeking Alpha上找到）</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Market Cap/Annual Sales = 10.27</li> </ul> Considering that we'd like to see a price to sales ratio of between 1 and 2, ROKU is trading at a premium. It has to be considered that sales are growing at an average rate of above 40% annually.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市值/年销售额=10.27</li></ul>考虑到我们希望看到市销率在1到2之间，ROKU的交易价格溢价。必须考虑到销售额正以年均40%以上的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> Another ratio we can look at is the price to cash flow, which is a great metric to use as cash flow resembles the intrinsic value.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以考虑的另一个比率是价格与现金流，这是一个很好的指标，因为现金流类似于内在价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>Share price/Cash flow per share = $460/$1.72 = 267.44</li> </ul> Again, this is a high multiple, and we'd like to see a price to cash flow ratio of between 15-20. ROKU has seen an unlevered free cash flow growth worth&nbsp;181.51%&nbsp;over the last year but only has a free cash flow yield of&nbsp;0.3%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股价/每股现金流=$460/$1.72=267.44</li></ul>同样，这是一个很高的倍数，我们希望看到价格与现金流的比率在15-20之间。ROKU去年的无杠杆自由现金流增长率为181.51%，但自由现金流收益率仅为0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> The cash flows are still too volatile to forecast the intrinsic value and leading P/E ratio.</p><p><blockquote>现金流仍然波动太大，无法预测内在价值和领先市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026ba34f1e658421a653fef0403c2ba5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect massive upside in EPS but we think that this is fantasy. The main reason is the fact that the company now holds residual. Let's explain why.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计每股收益将大幅上涨，但我们认为这只是幻想。主要原因是公司现在持有剩余。让我们解释一下原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Use Of Residual</b></p><p><blockquote><b>剩余的使用</b></blockquote></p><p> Essential to any stock's valuation is the asset base. Sure ROKU will probably trade at a premium to its asset base due to intellectual property and other intangible assets. However, the fundamental asset base growth is significant, and we think that their M&amp;A strategy will ultimately determine the stock's fate.</p><p><blockquote>任何股票估值的关键是资产基础。当然，由于知识产权和其他无形资产，ROKU的交易价格可能会高于其资产基础。然而，基本资产基础增长显着，我们认为他们的并购策略将最终决定该股的命运。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at acquisition strategies.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看收购策略。</blockquote></p><p> To start off with, we'll discuss the importance of data and asset acquisitions for tech companies. Data and asset acquisitions allow for organic growth to be amplified due to the synergies. Purchasing the 'ready-made' innovation is much more effective than innovating from scratch yourself.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们将讨论数据和资产收购对科技公司的重要性。由于协同效应，数据和资产收购可以放大有机增长。购买“现成的”创新比自己从头开始创新要有效得多。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, let's discuss verticals. Vertical integration allows for acquisitions up and down the value chain. These acquisitions allow for cost-cutting through bargaining power and pricing leadership in the market. If ROKU goes this way, they'll add tremendous value to their asset base.</p><p><blockquote>其次，我们来讨论垂直领域。垂直整合允许在价值链上下游进行收购。这些收购可以通过市场上的议价能力和定价领导地位来削减成本。如果ROKU走这条路，他们将为其资产基础增加巨大的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Now for horizontals. If ROKU chooses to acquire horizontally for the purpose of gaining market share and reducing potential competitors, they'll end up paying premiums and ending up in many litigation fights. Not very good for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>现在是水平线。如果ROKU为了获得市场份额和减少潜在竞争对手而选择横向收购，他们最终将支付溢价并陷入许多诉讼。对股东来说不是很好。</blockquote></p><p> Other uses of capital.</p><p><blockquote>资本的其他用途。</blockquote></p><p> ROKU could simply increase its headcount and continue developing internally. This is also not a very efficient way of going about adding shareholder value. It's unlikely that the company will pay dividends and engage in share buyback programs at this stage as it's still in a growth phase.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU可以简单地增加员工数量并继续内部发展。这也不是增加股东价值的非常有效的方式。该公司现阶段不太可能支付股息并参与股票回购计划，因为它仍处于增长阶段。</blockquote></p><p> The early signs are that they're completing asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>早期迹象表明他们正在完成资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b8ae004c046f2ab6dae4dc02de6b25c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"><span>Source: Crunchbase</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Crunchbase</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Old House Ventures&nbsp;was acquired to add to its content and bring synergies to the table. Nielsen, as discussed, brings further expansion to the platform and is another lean asset acquisition. The Giraffic deal adds to their cloud space, this is another smart acquisition. Also adding to ad revenue is the acquisition of&nbsp;dataxu, another good acquisition in our opinion. And finally,Dynastrom&nbsp;was an acquisition that adds to ROKU's engineering team.</p><p><blockquote>收购Old House Ventures是为了增加其内容并带来协同效应。如前所述，尼尔森为该平台带来了进一步的扩展，是另一项精益资产收购。Giraffic交易增加了他们的云空间，这是另一次明智的收购。收购dataxu也增加了广告收入，我们认为这是另一项不错的收购。最后，Dynastrom的收购增强了ROKU的工程团队。</blockquote></p><p> If ROKU continues acquiring in this manner, it will increase the cash value of its future growth opportunities, this is very good for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>如果ROKU继续以这种方式收购，将增加其未来增长机会的现金价值，这对股东来说非常好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shareholder Value</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股东价值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf094989971e65038753abbf9d78cb33\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: GuruFocus</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：GuruFocus</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It remains in the balance as to whether there's a real drive towards shareholder value or not. The EPS is all over the place, which is understandable as many insiders might exercise options during high stock prices. The other side of it is that net income also has been surging. It remains to be seen what the EPS will do. Investors should note that ROKU has a&nbsp;dual-class voting structure, which dilutes shareholder voting rights over insider voting rights.</p><p><blockquote>是否有真正的股东价值驱动力仍悬而未决。每股收益无处不在，这是可以理解的，因为许多内部人士可能会在股价高企期间行使期权。另一方面，净利润也在飙升。EPS会做什么还有待观察。投资者应注意，ROKU拥有双层投票结构，这会稀释股东投票权而不是内部投票权。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Our Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> ROKU is a big gamble at the moment. The company is generating significant topline revenue, and cash flows are growing. If the company follows a similar acquisition strategy as big tech companies, the stock will thrive. If it uses its residual to little effect, the stock might plummet, especially considering the high price to sales and price to cash flow ratios. We're taking our chances nonetheless.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU目前是一场豪赌。该公司正在产生可观的营收，现金流也在增长。如果该公司遵循与大型科技公司类似的收购策略，该股将会蓬勃发展。如果它利用其剩余部分收效甚微，该股可能会暴跌，特别是考虑到较高的市销率和市销率与现金流比率。尽管如此，我们还是在冒险。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ROKU: The Next Step<blockquote>ROKU：下一步</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nROKU: The Next Step<blockquote>ROKU：下一步</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 21:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.</li>  <li>The stock price depends on whether it uses the capital to the value of shareholders.</li>  <li>Astronomical gains in top-line growth and cash flow are witnesses. However, high P/S and P/CF are still a concern.</li>  <li>We're risking it by going long as the early signs of acquisitions have been encouraging.</li>  <li>Tread lightly with the risks involved.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b00a4fa1d444c1076f1bb7fa30c1199\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"566\"><span>Arturo Holmes/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ROKU的股票处于平衡状态，因为它首次报告剩余。</li><li>股票价格取决于它是否使用资本对股东的价值。</li><li>营收增长和现金流的天文数字增长就是见证。然而，高P/S和P/CF仍然是一个问题。</li><li>由于收购的早期迹象令人鼓舞，我们冒着做多的风险。</li><li>对其中的风险要轻描淡写。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>阿图罗·霍姆斯/盖蒂图片社娱乐公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> For those who aren't aware, Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) is the leading TV streaming platform in the United States, with an active user base of over&nbsp;50 million. The company partners with TV brands which allows it to manufacture and sell its content via its platform.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，Roku（纳斯达克：Roku）是美国领先的电视流媒体平台，活跃用户群超过5000万。该公司与电视品牌合作，使其能够通过其平台制作和销售内容。</blockquote></p><p> The company operates through two segments namely platform and player.</p><p><blockquote>该公司通过两个部门运营，即平台和播放器。</blockquote></p><p> The platform segment allows users to gain access to television and movies. The player segment offers streaming players, audio products, and accessories through the ROKU name. Further to the business is significant ad revenue as most tech companies have these days.</p><p><blockquote>平台部分允许用户观看电视和电影。播放器部门通过ROKU名称提供流媒体播放器、音频产品和配件。除了这项业务之外，还有大量的广告收入，就像如今大多数科技公司一样。</blockquote></p><p> ROKU is still in its growth stage and has gained significant traction from investors&nbsp;since listing&nbsp;on the Nasdaq in 2017.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU仍处于成长期，自2017年在纳斯达克上市以来，已获得投资者的大力关注。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials&nbsp;</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Top-Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>顶线</b></blockquote></p><p> ROKU reported&nbsp;63.46%&nbsp;in year-over-year revenue growth the past year. The company has a 5-year average growth rate in revenue of&nbsp;40.9%, which ranks in the 99th sector percentile. ROKU's core business is growing well, with&nbsp;101%&nbsp;year-over-year growth in revenue due to an increase in platform usage of 4.5% in the past quarter. We think that ad revenue will add sustainability to the firm's revenue as competition rises through improved products from Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)streaming services. ROKU has entered into a&nbsp;strategic alliance&nbsp;with Nielsen to access their ad content. ROKU also completed asset acquisitions in the deal by acquiring Nielsen's AVA and DAI technologies to improve content recognition and ad insertion.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU去年的收入同比增长了63.46%。该公司的收入5年平均增长率为40.9%，在行业中排名第99位。ROKU的核心业务增长良好，由于上个季度平台使用量增长了4.5%，收入同比增长了101%。我们认为，随着苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）和谷歌（纳斯达克：GOOG）（纳斯达克：GOOGL）流媒体服务改进产品带来的竞争加剧，广告收入将增加公司收入的可持续性。ROKU已经与尼尔森建立了战略联盟，以访问他们的广告内容。ROKU还在该交易中完成了资产收购，收购了尼尔森的AVA和DAI技术，以提高内容识别和广告插入。</blockquote></p><p> We think that added efficiency and synergies will improve the sustainability of the company's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，提高效率和协同效应将提高公司盈利的可持续性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>User Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>用户增长</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7660020b92ea61b62566e9ac2ac6cd02\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ROKU has undoubtedly expanded rapidly during the lockdown, and this is an anomaly that can't be denied. But something worth looking at is the company's gradual increase before the pandemic. We don't think that ROKU is a one-hit-wonder by any stretch of the imagination, and user growth looks set to continue growing.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU在封锁期间无疑迅速扩张，这是一个不可否认的异常现象。但值得关注的是该公司在大流行之前的逐步增长。无论怎么想象，我们都不认为ROKU是一个昙花一现的奇迹，而且用户增长似乎将继续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27f287b57a10fb5d043ef20b96b548a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\"><span>Source: GuruFocus</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：GuruFocus</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To consolidate the argument, we've pulled up the return on invested capital chart. The ROIC is a good indicator of a company's competitive stance within an industry. The recent growth in ROIC indicates that ROKU is still expanding well in itsindustry. We think that increased third-party distributors and increased investment in the ROKU channels contributed immensely to the uptick in ROIC. Furthermore, factors such as Disney+ and NBC Universal Peacock, HBO Max, and Discovery+ have and will stimulate further user growth.</p><p><blockquote>为了巩固论点，我们调出了投资资本回报率图表。ROIC是公司在行业内竞争地位的良好指标。最近投资回报率的增长表明ROKU在其行业中仍在良好扩张。我们认为，第三方分销商的增加和对ROKU渠道投资的增加极大地促进了投资回报率的上升。此外，迪士尼+和NBC环球孔雀、HBO Max和Discovery+等因素已经并将刺激用户进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom-Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe252a78a1b9f030d0518689d2bfb148\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"109\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/731e79eb9769e07f6760b43a0670f444\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"129\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Very important to us are net income and normalized net income. The reasons are that the company finally turned a profit in Q-1 and now has residual to work with. The factor is unusual items. ROKU's normalized net income excludes unusual earnings, the fact that they're still reporting positive normalized net income is a big plus.</p><p><blockquote>对我们来说非常重要的是净利润和正常化净利润。原因是该公司最终在第一季度扭亏为盈，现在还有剩余可供处理。因素是不寻常的项目。ROKU的正常化净利润不包括异常收益，事实上他们仍然报告正的正常化净利润是一个很大的优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Multiples</b></p><p><blockquote><b>倍数</b></blockquote></p><p> Seeing that ROKU is now profitable, we can apply a few multiples for analysis. To start with, we looked at the price to sales. This metric can be used at any stage of the business cycle. ROKU is in a growth phase, and we think it's not easy to interpret the other multiples without looking at this one first.(The base data can be found on&nbsp;Seeking Alpha)</p><p><blockquote>看到ROKU现在盈利了，我们可以套用几个倍数进行分析。首先，我们看了价格与销售额的关系。该指标可用于业务周期的任何阶段。ROKU正处于增长阶段，我们认为如果不先看看这个倍数，就很难解释其他倍数。（基本数据可以在Seeking Alpha上找到）</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Market Cap/Annual Sales = 10.27</li> </ul> Considering that we'd like to see a price to sales ratio of between 1 and 2, ROKU is trading at a premium. It has to be considered that sales are growing at an average rate of above 40% annually.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市值/年销售额=10.27</li></ul>考虑到我们希望看到市销率在1到2之间，ROKU的交易价格溢价。必须考虑到销售额正以年均40%以上的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> Another ratio we can look at is the price to cash flow, which is a great metric to use as cash flow resembles the intrinsic value.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以考虑的另一个比率是价格与现金流，这是一个很好的指标，因为现金流类似于内在价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>Share price/Cash flow per share = $460/$1.72 = 267.44</li> </ul> Again, this is a high multiple, and we'd like to see a price to cash flow ratio of between 15-20. ROKU has seen an unlevered free cash flow growth worth&nbsp;181.51%&nbsp;over the last year but only has a free cash flow yield of&nbsp;0.3%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股价/每股现金流=$460/$1.72=267.44</li></ul>同样，这是一个很高的倍数，我们希望看到价格与现金流的比率在15-20之间。ROKU去年的无杠杆自由现金流增长率为181.51%，但自由现金流收益率仅为0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> The cash flows are still too volatile to forecast the intrinsic value and leading P/E ratio.</p><p><blockquote>现金流仍然波动太大，无法预测内在价值和领先市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026ba34f1e658421a653fef0403c2ba5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect massive upside in EPS but we think that this is fantasy. The main reason is the fact that the company now holds residual. Let's explain why.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计每股收益将大幅上涨，但我们认为这只是幻想。主要原因是公司现在持有剩余。让我们解释一下原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Use Of Residual</b></p><p><blockquote><b>剩余的使用</b></blockquote></p><p> Essential to any stock's valuation is the asset base. Sure ROKU will probably trade at a premium to its asset base due to intellectual property and other intangible assets. However, the fundamental asset base growth is significant, and we think that their M&amp;A strategy will ultimately determine the stock's fate.</p><p><blockquote>任何股票估值的关键是资产基础。当然，由于知识产权和其他无形资产，ROKU的交易价格可能会高于其资产基础。然而，基本资产基础增长显着，我们认为他们的并购策略将最终决定该股的命运。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at acquisition strategies.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看收购策略。</blockquote></p><p> To start off with, we'll discuss the importance of data and asset acquisitions for tech companies. Data and asset acquisitions allow for organic growth to be amplified due to the synergies. Purchasing the 'ready-made' innovation is much more effective than innovating from scratch yourself.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们将讨论数据和资产收购对科技公司的重要性。由于协同效应，数据和资产收购可以放大有机增长。购买“现成的”创新比自己从头开始创新要有效得多。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, let's discuss verticals. Vertical integration allows for acquisitions up and down the value chain. These acquisitions allow for cost-cutting through bargaining power and pricing leadership in the market. If ROKU goes this way, they'll add tremendous value to their asset base.</p><p><blockquote>其次，我们来讨论垂直领域。垂直整合允许在价值链上下游进行收购。这些收购可以通过市场上的议价能力和定价领导地位来削减成本。如果ROKU走这条路，他们将为其资产基础增加巨大的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Now for horizontals. If ROKU chooses to acquire horizontally for the purpose of gaining market share and reducing potential competitors, they'll end up paying premiums and ending up in many litigation fights. Not very good for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>现在是水平线。如果ROKU为了获得市场份额和减少潜在竞争对手而选择横向收购，他们最终将支付溢价并陷入许多诉讼。对股东来说不是很好。</blockquote></p><p> Other uses of capital.</p><p><blockquote>资本的其他用途。</blockquote></p><p> ROKU could simply increase its headcount and continue developing internally. This is also not a very efficient way of going about adding shareholder value. It's unlikely that the company will pay dividends and engage in share buyback programs at this stage as it's still in a growth phase.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU可以简单地增加员工数量并继续内部发展。这也不是增加股东价值的非常有效的方式。该公司现阶段不太可能支付股息并参与股票回购计划，因为它仍处于增长阶段。</blockquote></p><p> The early signs are that they're completing asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>早期迹象表明他们正在完成资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b8ae004c046f2ab6dae4dc02de6b25c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"><span>Source: Crunchbase</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Crunchbase</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Old House Ventures&nbsp;was acquired to add to its content and bring synergies to the table. Nielsen, as discussed, brings further expansion to the platform and is another lean asset acquisition. The Giraffic deal adds to their cloud space, this is another smart acquisition. Also adding to ad revenue is the acquisition of&nbsp;dataxu, another good acquisition in our opinion. And finally,Dynastrom&nbsp;was an acquisition that adds to ROKU's engineering team.</p><p><blockquote>收购Old House Ventures是为了增加其内容并带来协同效应。如前所述，尼尔森为该平台带来了进一步的扩展，是另一项精益资产收购。Giraffic交易增加了他们的云空间，这是另一次明智的收购。收购dataxu也增加了广告收入，我们认为这是另一项不错的收购。最后，Dynastrom的收购增强了ROKU的工程团队。</blockquote></p><p> If ROKU continues acquiring in this manner, it will increase the cash value of its future growth opportunities, this is very good for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>如果ROKU继续以这种方式收购，将增加其未来增长机会的现金价值，这对股东来说非常好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shareholder Value</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股东价值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf094989971e65038753abbf9d78cb33\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: GuruFocus</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：GuruFocus</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It remains in the balance as to whether there's a real drive towards shareholder value or not. The EPS is all over the place, which is understandable as many insiders might exercise options during high stock prices. The other side of it is that net income also has been surging. It remains to be seen what the EPS will do. Investors should note that ROKU has a&nbsp;dual-class voting structure, which dilutes shareholder voting rights over insider voting rights.</p><p><blockquote>是否有真正的股东价值驱动力仍悬而未决。每股收益无处不在，这是可以理解的，因为许多内部人士可能会在股价高企期间行使期权。另一方面，净利润也在飙升。EPS会做什么还有待观察。投资者应注意，ROKU拥有双层投票结构，这会稀释股东投票权而不是内部投票权。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Our Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> ROKU is a big gamble at the moment. The company is generating significant topline revenue, and cash flows are growing. If the company follows a similar acquisition strategy as big tech companies, the stock will thrive. If it uses its residual to little effect, the stock might plummet, especially considering the high price to sales and price to cash flow ratios. We're taking our chances nonetheless.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU目前是一场豪赌。该公司正在产生可观的营收，现金流也在增长。如果该公司遵循与大型科技公司类似的收购策略，该股将会蓬勃发展。如果它利用其剩余部分收效甚微，该股可能会暴跌，特别是考虑到较高的市销率和市销率与现金流比率。尽管如此，我们还是在冒险。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437490-roku-the-next-step\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ROKU":"Roku Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437490-roku-the-next-step","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129664890","content_text":"Summary\n\nROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.\nThe stock price depends on whether it uses the capital to the value of shareholders.\nAstronomical gains in top-line growth and cash flow are witnesses. However, high P/S and P/CF are still a concern.\nWe're risking it by going long as the early signs of acquisitions have been encouraging.\nTread lightly with the risks involved.\n\nArturo Holmes/Getty Images Entertainment\nOverview\nFor those who aren't aware, Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) is the leading TV streaming platform in the United States, with an active user base of over 50 million. The company partners with TV brands which allows it to manufacture and sell its content via its platform.\nThe company operates through two segments namely platform and player.\nThe platform segment allows users to gain access to television and movies. The player segment offers streaming players, audio products, and accessories through the ROKU name. Further to the business is significant ad revenue as most tech companies have these days.\nROKU is still in its growth stage and has gained significant traction from investors since listing on the Nasdaq in 2017.\nFinancials \nTop-Line\nROKU reported 63.46% in year-over-year revenue growth the past year. The company has a 5-year average growth rate in revenue of 40.9%, which ranks in the 99th sector percentile. ROKU's core business is growing well, with 101% year-over-year growth in revenue due to an increase in platform usage of 4.5% in the past quarter. We think that ad revenue will add sustainability to the firm's revenue as competition rises through improved products from Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)streaming services. ROKU has entered into a strategic alliance with Nielsen to access their ad content. ROKU also completed asset acquisitions in the deal by acquiring Nielsen's AVA and DAI technologies to improve content recognition and ad insertion.\nWe think that added efficiency and synergies will improve the sustainability of the company's earnings.\nUser Growth\nSource: Statista\nROKU has undoubtedly expanded rapidly during the lockdown, and this is an anomaly that can't be denied. But something worth looking at is the company's gradual increase before the pandemic. We don't think that ROKU is a one-hit-wonder by any stretch of the imagination, and user growth looks set to continue growing.\nSource: GuruFocus\nTo consolidate the argument, we've pulled up the return on invested capital chart. The ROIC is a good indicator of a company's competitive stance within an industry. The recent growth in ROIC indicates that ROKU is still expanding well in itsindustry. We think that increased third-party distributors and increased investment in the ROKU channels contributed immensely to the uptick in ROIC. Furthermore, factors such as Disney+ and NBC Universal Peacock, HBO Max, and Discovery+ have and will stimulate further user growth.\nBottom-Line\n\nVery important to us are net income and normalized net income. The reasons are that the company finally turned a profit in Q-1 and now has residual to work with. The factor is unusual items. ROKU's normalized net income excludes unusual earnings, the fact that they're still reporting positive normalized net income is a big plus.\nMultiples\nSeeing that ROKU is now profitable, we can apply a few multiples for analysis. To start with, we looked at the price to sales. This metric can be used at any stage of the business cycle. ROKU is in a growth phase, and we think it's not easy to interpret the other multiples without looking at this one first.(The base data can be found on Seeking Alpha)\n\nMarket Cap/Annual Sales = 10.27\n\nConsidering that we'd like to see a price to sales ratio of between 1 and 2, ROKU is trading at a premium. It has to be considered that sales are growing at an average rate of above 40% annually.\nAnother ratio we can look at is the price to cash flow, which is a great metric to use as cash flow resembles the intrinsic value.\n\nShare price/Cash flow per share = $460/$1.72 = 267.44\n\nAgain, this is a high multiple, and we'd like to see a price to cash flow ratio of between 15-20. ROKU has seen an unlevered free cash flow growth worth 181.51% over the last year but only has a free cash flow yield of 0.3%.\nThe cash flows are still too volatile to forecast the intrinsic value and leading P/E ratio.\n\nAnalysts expect massive upside in EPS but we think that this is fantasy. The main reason is the fact that the company now holds residual. Let's explain why.\nUse Of Residual\nEssential to any stock's valuation is the asset base. Sure ROKU will probably trade at a premium to its asset base due to intellectual property and other intangible assets. However, the fundamental asset base growth is significant, and we think that their M&A strategy will ultimately determine the stock's fate.\nLet's look at acquisition strategies.\nTo start off with, we'll discuss the importance of data and asset acquisitions for tech companies. Data and asset acquisitions allow for organic growth to be amplified due to the synergies. Purchasing the 'ready-made' innovation is much more effective than innovating from scratch yourself.\nSecondly, let's discuss verticals. Vertical integration allows for acquisitions up and down the value chain. These acquisitions allow for cost-cutting through bargaining power and pricing leadership in the market. If ROKU goes this way, they'll add tremendous value to their asset base.\nNow for horizontals. If ROKU chooses to acquire horizontally for the purpose of gaining market share and reducing potential competitors, they'll end up paying premiums and ending up in many litigation fights. Not very good for shareholders.\nOther uses of capital.\nROKU could simply increase its headcount and continue developing internally. This is also not a very efficient way of going about adding shareholder value. It's unlikely that the company will pay dividends and engage in share buyback programs at this stage as it's still in a growth phase.\nThe early signs are that they're completing asset purchases.\nSource: Crunchbase\nOld House Ventures was acquired to add to its content and bring synergies to the table. Nielsen, as discussed, brings further expansion to the platform and is another lean asset acquisition. The Giraffic deal adds to their cloud space, this is another smart acquisition. Also adding to ad revenue is the acquisition of dataxu, another good acquisition in our opinion. And finally,Dynastrom was an acquisition that adds to ROKU's engineering team.\nIf ROKU continues acquiring in this manner, it will increase the cash value of its future growth opportunities, this is very good for shareholders.\nShareholder Value\nSource: GuruFocus\nIt remains in the balance as to whether there's a real drive towards shareholder value or not. The EPS is all over the place, which is understandable as many insiders might exercise options during high stock prices. The other side of it is that net income also has been surging. It remains to be seen what the EPS will do. Investors should note that ROKU has a dual-class voting structure, which dilutes shareholder voting rights over insider voting rights.\nOur Take\nROKU is a big gamble at the moment. The company is generating significant topline revenue, and cash flows are growing. If the company follows a similar acquisition strategy as big tech companies, the stock will thrive. If it uses its residual to little effect, the stock might plummet, especially considering the high price to sales and price to cash flow ratios. We're taking our chances nonetheless.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ROKU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153739346,"gmtCreate":1625048821185,"gmtModify":1631890333850,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573376359688247","authorIdStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello this is so fun","listText":"Hello this is so fun","text":"Hello this is so fun","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153739346","repostId":"1163947029","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153056415,"gmtCreate":1624989696037,"gmtModify":1631890333857,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573376359688247","authorIdStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ddddd","listText":"Ddddd","text":"Ddddd","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d0e5c7552bfad255fd487eae2fb761d","width":"1080","height":"2894"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153056415","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153056818,"gmtCreate":1624989650734,"gmtModify":1633946123936,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573376359688247","authorIdStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool leh thiz","listText":"Cool leh thiz","text":"Cool leh thiz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153056818","repostId":"1174683579","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127993413,"gmtCreate":1624810309632,"gmtModify":1633948435354,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573376359688247","authorIdStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I have attached my resume for your reference&nbsp;","listText":"I have attached my resume for your reference&nbsp;","text":"I have attached my resume for your reference","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127993413","repostId":"1117734317","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117734317","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624759414,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117734317?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117734317","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong re","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li>  <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li>  <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li>  <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li>  <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从表面上看，Square似乎是一家成长中的公司，也是一项不错的投资，收入增长强劲，Cash App用户群庞大。</li><li>事实上，该公司一直在努力将其营收转化为净利润。</li><li>这导致Square扩大其产品，以证明夸大的收入估值是合理的，而这可能永远不会带来有意义的盈利增长。</li><li>虽然乍一看，它的现金应用程序故事似乎是一个崭露头角的前景，但它可能只不过是基于必要性的暂时增长。</li><li>鉴于目前的估值和不断增加的比特币阻力，Square可能面临收入和盈利的大幅下调。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the&nbsp;most popular stocks&nbsp;among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p><p><blockquote>Square Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）是最受散户交易者和投资者欢迎的股票之一，在Robinhood的100强排名中排名第57位。这导致SQ的价格比去年上涨了135%，市值超过1000亿美元，交易波动性相当于中型公司。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a&nbsp;banking license&nbsp;via Square Financial Services.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，价格和估值似乎是合理的，该公司通过Cash App、比特币（BTC-USD）、PPP贷款不断增加收入并扩大其产品组合，最近还通过Square Financial Services获得银行牌照。</blockquote></p><p> However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于对未来收入预测的猜测，这些估值正与公司及其核心业务的基本面脱钩，而未来收入预测严重依赖于比特币收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自SQ Investor Relations（2021年第一季度历史财务信息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，SQ还可能面临与小企业定位相关的其他几个问题；政策和法规；以及一般宏观经济因素，这些因素可能会产生不利因素，影响其估值并给投资者带来不对称的下行风险，我将在下面进行推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家支付处理和商业工具提供商，促进企业/卖家和个人之间的交易，并为他们提供硬件、在线基础设施和分析。此外，它还通过现金应用程序为个人提供服务，该应用程序似乎呈指数级增长，允许用户发送、接收、持有和投资资金，最近还有比特币。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信-现金App流入与毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of March 2020, the&nbsp;company has received a Banking License&nbsp;from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月，该公司已获得联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）的银行牌照，可以向使用SQ进行支付处理的零售商发放商业贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于所有这些积极消息，根据未来增长预测，该股在过去3年中上涨了330%以上，并且自2020年以来一直追逐收入预期也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p><p><blockquote>这在新冠疫情期间很常见，因为未知的水域意味着营收增长对于生存至关重要。此外，美联储似乎无休止的印钞，加上零利率，意味着资金流入显示出最高增长潜力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（2021年SQ与EPS预估和收入预估）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在2021年第一季度，随着印刷放缓，收益率开始上升，联邦对个人的转移支付消失，因此不断增加的收入预期对市场的意义开始减弱，导致SQ价格走势在200美元至280美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（年初至今SQ价格）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Quantitative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数量的</b></blockquote></p><p> Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，SQ相对于支付处理行业表现良好，为股东带来了约12%的价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector &gt;$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（SQ与支付处理行业今年迄今&gt;500亿美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>当根据远期收益和收入对这些公司进行评估时，也就不足为奇了。SQ 2021年和2022年的盈利增长高于平均水平和中位数，2021年的收入增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，行业比较（支付处理商）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然与同行相比，SQ的远期市盈率似乎被夸大了，但其远期市盈率相对较小，低于行业平均水平和中位数，这或许证明了其现值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一旦你将比特币收入从等式中剔除，你就会得到对收入增长低得多的预期PS估计，而收入增长代表了SQ的主要业务。</blockquote></p><p> For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在这个等式中，我从2021年第一季度的业绩中删除了比特币的收入，并根据分析师的平均预期判断，该预期显示2021年第二季度至第四季度的收入几乎没有环比增长，将该数字乘以4倍，得出年终收入估计为61.407亿美元。前几年，我已将比特币从收入中删除。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ收入增长（2018年至2021年比特币与不包括比特币的预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ与行业比较（收入预测不包括比特币）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，这描绘了该公司截然不同的图景，虽然收入增长仍略高于市盈率也很高的公司，但盈利估值突然看起来更有意义，并且很难证明远期市盈率高于平均水平3倍是合理的，比中位数高4.5倍。尤其是当美国运通公司(AXP)、万事达卡公司(MA)、PayPal控股公司(PYPL)和Visa Inc(V)等公司的每股收益平均高出4倍时。其中大多数支付股息，并具有类似的增长预期，但波动风险较小。</blockquote></p><p> Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which&nbsp;Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p><p><blockquote>许多人会认为“这并不重要，因为BTC现在是他们收入指标的一部分，也就是说，除了交易量之外，才是重要的”。然而，我想举2018年比特币抛售的例子，比特币下跌了70%，交易量也从高点下跌了约75%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Bitcoinvisuals.com（2018年比特币市场交易量）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，如果比特币因全球监管力度加大而继续回调，这将给投资者带来巨大的下行风险，因为该公司本质上是根据比特币支持的收入指标进行交易的。很简单，比特币的价格下跌可能意味着收入预期的下调，从而导致SQ价格的高度波动回撤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（SQ价格相关性-收入、EPS和EBITDA）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股与同行相比的历史波动性，这种情况变得越来越有可能，而且它也成为共识空头头寸也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者（SQ与行业比较隐含波动率和已实现波动率以及空头利息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend&nbsp;in which the author suggests that&nbsp;SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in&nbsp;I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于另一位Seeking Alpha撰稿人的分析，我不得不同意作者认为SQ 2025年增长的价值趋势基本上已被定价。SQ对收入预测的依赖被比特币大幅放大，给投资者带来了中短期内不对称的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macro</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宏观的</b></blockquote></p><p> Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们正处于重新开放的过程中，但许多事情仍然不确定，如需求可持续性、就业增长和创造以及通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p><p><blockquote>虽然媒体的情绪总体上是积极的，但在我们得出结论认为我们是清白的之前，有几个宏观经济问题需要解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Environment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业环境</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p><p><blockquote>SQ的MRQ显示，近49%的毛利润来自卖家生态系统（小企业）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度10Q第39页-细分毛利）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with &lt;$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>其中大部分来自支付总额低于500,000美元的卖家（69.5%）。这使得square很大程度上受到小企业周期波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p><p><blockquote>深入研究业务形成统计数据，有一个乐观的画面，2021年5月超过500,000个业务应用程序为SQ提供了无尽的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Census.gov（商业应用，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p><p><blockquote>同样，当我们深入挖掘并查看排名成熟小企业乐观情绪的统计数据时，情况开始扭曲，开始看起来像是进入2008年的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势-乐观，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当我们考察小企业未来的扩张前景时，这也降至低点，与2008年类似。这可能表明SQ毛利率的主要组成部分可能不会以2017年至2020年期间的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势-展望，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，应该指出的是，小企业给出负面前景的两个主要原因是“经济状况”和“政治气候”，这可能与2020年的选举、COVID、最近的政策变化有关，并且在某种程度上是暂时的。或者，它可能类似于2008年至2016年的缓慢三月，我们只是不知道，除了它是一个较低的读数，因此可能会影响SQ的高收入和盈利增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势-展望原因，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Lending</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业贷款</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the&nbsp;PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，SQ显然旨在通过获得银行牌照来巩固其在商业贷款领域的地位。这对该公司来说非常积极，因为他们庞大且不断增长的小型企业用户群、他们自2014年以来的经验以及于2021年5月31日停止的PPP计划。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p><p><blockquote>目前，由于COVID的复苏努力，银行贷款已经减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（美国商业银行-商业和工业贷款）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the&nbsp;monthly NFIB report. Although, an&nbsp;American Banker survey&nbsp;is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过NFIB月度报告中的信用状况指数来验证。尽管如此，美国银行家的一项调查报告称，86%的小企业发现很难获得信贷，不得不求助于个人信贷。</blockquote></p><p> This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of&nbsp;capital restraints&nbsp;placed on Wells Fargo &amp; Company (WFC).</p><p><blockquote>这对SQ来说是积极的，因为这将使他们能够填补市场上小企业的信贷缺口。尽管我认为这将是短暂的，因为有人猜测，当美联储缩减规模时，他们还将宣布取消对富国银行（WFC）的资本限制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：瑞士信贷（Global Money Dispatch–2021年5月25日）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had&nbsp;lifted these restraints&nbsp;to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美联储在2020年初取消了这些限制，以通过PPP计划帮助小企业，而且缩减购债规模有扰乱市场的历史，这种情况发生的可能性相当大。如果发生这种情况，我怀疑WFC将再次成为小企业信贷领域的巨头，并由于其在该领域广泛的网络和历史而成为SQ非常强劲的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin, Legislation &amp; Gensler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币、立法和詹斯勒</b></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor&nbsp;banks&nbsp;have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the&nbsp;purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p><p><blockquote>比特币在2020年下半年和2021年上半年的大部分时间里一直是头条新闻，这是有充分理由的。它在散户交易者和投资者中越来越受欢迎，并表现出非凡的赞赏。此外，一些小型银行对这种媒介很感兴趣，尽管许多银行和金融机构已经明确禁止使用其服务购买比特币。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as&nbsp;money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p><p><blockquote>他们反对的主要原因很可能与非法活动有关，如洗钱、恐怖主义、虚假交易量以及我不想参与的类似活动，银行也不想参与。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China&nbsp;and&nbsp;India.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在最近的炒作中，许多国家现在正在介入监管比特币的使用，但其他国家更进一步，正在颁布立法禁止其使用和开采，最明显的是中印两国。</blockquote></p><p> This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p><p><blockquote>自2021年5月ATHs约65,000美元以来，这对比特币的价格产生了负面影响，此后回撤了-46%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with&nbsp;Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p><p><blockquote>这对比特币的未来也是极其不利的，因为比特币的大部分挖矿都是在中国完成的（年初至今约70%），挖矿的算力与价格相关。因此，如果这些因素因中国采矿活动减少而消退，价格肯定会随之上涨，从而影响SQ的比特币持有量和未来交易量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：剑桥大学（剑桥比特币电力消费指数年初至今）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst the SEC has come out and said that&nbsp;Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has&nbsp;warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to&nbsp;2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>虽然SEC已经站出来表示，比特币监管不在他们2021年的议程上，但Gary Gensler警告投资者要谨慎。Gensler在保护投资者的监管方面也有着悠久的历史，尽管没有将比特币列入2021年的议程，但我建议读者研究他在2000年和2008年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p><p><blockquote>进一步看，总体而言，这对比特币和SQ来说并不是一个好兆头。很可能会有进一步的监管而不是采用，从而对其价格产生负面影响，导致2018年产量和采矿活动的下降重演。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体经济——零售业的担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout&nbsp;2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p><p><blockquote>另外，我们也可能会看到零售业未来的负面形势。零售业的复苏在很大程度上不是由“被压抑的需求”推动的，而是主要通过2020年和2021年初发放的补贴。当检查下图时，我们可以看到，一旦你减去转移收入（政府刺激支票和就业福利——红线），收入就不再是以前的样子了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行（可支配收入vs实际收入减去转账vs个人储蓄vs零售贸易销售）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们可以看到，零售额（紫色）的飙升主要是由刺激支票推动的，刺激支票增加了可支配收入（蓝色）和消费者储蓄（绿色），尽管现在刺激已经结束，人们不得不开始挖掘他们的储蓄，3月至4月期间环比下降了54%。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is&nbsp;considered to be the most revealing&nbsp;amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>在检查U6失业率时，消费者支出情况变得更糟，U6失业率被认为是经济学家中最能揭示问题的，因为它包括失业、未充分就业和灰心丧气的求职者。一般来说，这对未来消费者可自由支配支出模式来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Macrotrends.net（U6失业率vs U5 vs官方）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p><p><blockquote>最后，食品和能源成本的上涨（我预计食品成本将持续上涨）应该会阻碍消费者未来的可自由支配支出。我以前写过关于马赛克公司（MOS）和安德森公司（ANDE）的文章，概述了我对这一趋势的理由。</blockquote></p><p> In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，我们可以根据2019年底的数据查看他们对消费者可自由支配支出的历史敞口。当考虑到以下数据时：零售；专业服务、美容及个护、家居及维修、休闲娱乐及休闲使用，总曝光量约为59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista（Raynor de Best–卖家行业GPV，2019年12月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p><p><blockquote>虽然由于比特币的权重，这可能不会对其收入数据产生重大影响，但我确实预计这将削弱未来的毛利润数据，并随着刺激措施进一步消退对利润率产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p><p><blockquote>在检查SQ的财务状况时，我们可以很容易地看到，比特币是推动其收入增长的主要因素（MRQ占总收入的69%），其估值也由此得出（参见上面的介绍部分-SQ价格与收入部分；和定量部分-SQ价格相关性）。</blockquote></p><p> From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年第一季度股东信第12页中，他们表示，截至2021年3月31日，他们所持股份的公允价值为4.72亿美元。这一天的收盘价为58,918.83美元，约合8,011个比特币。他们还表示，在此期间和第四季度，他们最初向比特币投资了2亿美元，因此他们的平均价格约为每个比特币25,000美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p><p><blockquote>目前，比特币的价格约为34,600美元，它似乎也很难找到吸引力，尤其是当你研究其他一些趋势时。例如，看看谷歌趋势上“购买比特币”的搜索趋势，这显然正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词-全球5年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当你将这些数据与刺激支付联系起来时，很明显这两者在2020年下半年存在关系，最近的大部分猜测可能是由政府补贴驱动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USA.Gov（新冠刺激支票日期）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>搜索量的激增大约发生在后两次政府刺激支票的时间，有几天到几周的滞后。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词-美国12个月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这也与比特币在2020年12月和2021年1月的价格上涨以及2021年3月和4月的失败反弹相吻合。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（比特币价格1年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在这个例子中，如果我们持续抛售-70%，这与2018年发生的情况类似。我们将回到2020年11月比特币价格约为20,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在数量减少、进一步立法和哈希率下降的基础上，这仍然是可行的。从理论上讲，SQ可能会产生4000万美元的减值费用，这将极大地影响营业收入、净利润和股东收益以及未来预期。尽管这纯粹是理论上的，没有考虑当前季度的交易，例如在ATH或附近的购买或销售。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于未来缺乏刺激付款以及消费者可自由支配支出收紧，随着进入该领域的资金减少和销量下降，比特币产生的收入也可能下降。对SQ的收入估计以及随后的价格和估值产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash App</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金应用程序</b></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，Cash App正在呈指数级增长，成为用户交易的可行平台，每月交易活跃客户超过3600万，同比增长50%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cash App的这种增长未来可能是不可持续的，SQ在其季度备案说明中详细阐述了这一点：</blockquote></p><p>   Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from&nbsp;  <b>government relief programs</b>&nbsp;most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i>  Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>Cash App收入受益于Cash App活跃客户数量的增长以及<b>政府救济计划</b>最近于2020年12月下旬和2021年3月通过成为法律，以及2020年通过的早期刺激计划的累积收益。这些计划提供了额外的刺激救济和失业福利，导致消费者支出和流入我们的Cash App生态系统的资金增加。Cash App的收入增长在未来几个季度可能无法维持在相同水平，并且可能会受到进一步刺激救济和福利计划的颁布以及比特币的需求和市场价格等因素的影响。<i>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度10Q文件–第49页）</i>Cash App的部分问题是理论上的持续使用和未来的采用。去年的大部分增长主要是由通过Cash App生态系统进行的刺激支付推动的，因此在这种情况下是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p><p><blockquote>该应用程序的搜索量出现了两次急剧上升：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>April 12-18 2020</li>  <li>January 24-30 2021</li> </ul> These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2020年4月12日至18日</li><li>2021年1月24日至30日</li></ul>这些与刺激付款相吻合，因为他们最初发送这些款项，并逐渐将其存入人们的账户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（现金应用搜索词-美国5年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>因此，随着政府刺激付款结束，比特币再次失去相关性，越来越多的人重返工作岗位，日间交易减少，这可能会对未来的用户增长指标产生负面影响，影响SQ的收入估计、毛利润数据及其收益。</blockquote></p><p> Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有许多其他更可行的平台，另一位Seeking Alpha撰稿人The Value Trend在这里详细介绍了这些平台。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要记住他们如何定义这些用户，“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”如下：</blockquote></p><p>   ... has at least  <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i>  So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p><p><blockquote>...至少有<b>一笔金融交易</b>在指定期间内使用Cash App内的任何产品或服务。<i>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信-第4页）</i>因此，如果客户每月一次从雇主那里收到工资或失业救济金，并每月一次将所有工资转入他们的银行账户，那么他们就是“交易活跃现金应用客户”...</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p><p><blockquote>也许一个“活跃”客户的更好的量词是大于5笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p><p><blockquote>检查SQ的技术面，很明显该股目前在200美元至280美元之间波动，在250美元处有几次突破尝试，在300美元附近有两次失败的尝试，显示出几个迹象表明势头正在消失。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自FINVIZ（SQ图表）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在检查暗池订单流时，由于暗池处于低点，当前的反弹有可能继续，这可能会持续到8月份的收益中。尽管我不会抱太大希望，除非出现一些严重的好消息，比特币反弹回ATHs。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Squeezemetrics.com（SQ暗池与隐含Vol 2年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>从13F备案中也可以看到，不少基金降低了敞口并平仓，新增仓位较少。看跌期权与看涨期权的比率也变得相当高，尤其是在市值为1000亿美元的股票上，这表明我们并不是唯一有同样想法的人。</blockquote></p><p> Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p><p><blockquote>但需要谨慎，因为SQ与比特币的问题显然正在成为共识交易，当这些看跌期权被取消时，伽马可能会转为正值，并可能导致该股大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Whalewisdom.com（SQ基金定位）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been&nbsp;significant liquidity issues&nbsp;the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，就ARK ETF而言，过去6个月出现重大流动性问题也就不足为奇了，我同意另一位Seeking Alpha撰稿人的论点，即我们将看到这些ETF中持有的股票价格回归均值。值得注意的是，Cathie已经显著减少了她对SQ的接触，她可能正在选择她的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Cathiesark.com（持有SQ股票-所有ETF）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于上述信息，这是一家很难做空的公司。它要么会带来巨大的回报，要么会因为它的波动性而撕碎你的脸。此外，许多基金希望对财务报表上有比特币的公司进行少量投资。因此，如果您要自担风险将其作为空头进行交易，建议谨慎行事，并且您应该始终选择战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p><p><blockquote>根据SQ ATR的波动性，SQ有可能在今年年底前跌至约100美元的低点，40%的情况下走势有利。如果你把比特币完全从等式中剔除，这与我的2021年底价格一致。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者（SQ ATR计算器）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这样做是不明智的，因为这是他们目前收入的一部分，无论2021年初比特币的销量有多高，年底可能有多低。</blockquote></p><p> I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p><p><blockquote>我确实预计该股将再次下跌并重新测试200美元，可能跌破160美元。尽管很难确定SQ的估值，主要是因为估值来自比特币收入，以及基金和市场在未来采用该资产时的感知价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p><p><blockquote>如果市场再次开始认为比特币无关紧要，我预计SQ将慢慢抛售至150美元至160美元之间（下跌-37%），反弹超过300美元（上涨25%）的可能性很低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，应注意以下风险。</blockquote></p><p> The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p><p><blockquote>不管你喜不喜欢SQ，公司都在成长。主要问题是：市场会在任何现实基础上对比特币进行估值吗？不管有没有比特币，它增长了多少？无论有没有比特币，未来的潜在增长是多少？市场相信吗，或者就此而言在乎吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币失去相关性，从谷歌趋势来看，这种可能性更大，那么假设SQ将因此在2021年下半年遭受损失并对收入预期造成重大打击并不奇怪。然而，如果比特币的采用率增加并且负面消息消退，由于这是一家成长型公司，它可能会继续上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p><p><blockquote>此外，消费者支出模式正在产生混合数据，上面我提出了一个熊市案例。如果人们的行为发生变化，例如申请将增加经济支出的工作，并有望产生小企业增长，增加小企业的乐观情绪和扩张，这对于SQ作为支付处理领域的周期性企业非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>同样，谨慎是必要的，尽管我确实认为公司未来的增长已被定价，SQ持有者面临的下行风险高于上行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家高增长公司，从长远来看具有一些潜在的积极点；然而，其估值非常值得怀疑，因为其高收入预期主要来自比特币交易，而不是盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>从定量角度来看，它在同行中看起来不错，但经过进一步检查，它似乎被严重高估，因为未来的增长（至少2021年）可能来自比特币。此外，如果没有政府的持续刺激，其Cash App采用统计数据可能不会继续看到相同的运行率。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，它还面临着一些潜在的宏观经济障碍，包括小企业风险、贷款竞争对手、消费者交易竞争对手、比特币立法和零售需求疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li>  <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li>  <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li>  <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li>  <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从表面上看，Square似乎是一家成长中的公司，也是一项不错的投资，收入增长强劲，Cash App用户群庞大。</li><li>事实上，该公司一直在努力将其营收转化为净利润。</li><li>这导致Square扩大其产品，以证明夸大的收入估值是合理的，而这可能永远不会带来有意义的盈利增长。</li><li>虽然乍一看，它的现金应用程序故事似乎是一个崭露头角的前景，但它可能只不过是基于必要性的暂时增长。</li><li>鉴于目前的估值和不断增加的比特币阻力，Square可能面临收入和盈利的大幅下调。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the&nbsp;most popular stocks&nbsp;among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p><p><blockquote>Square Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）是最受散户交易者和投资者欢迎的股票之一，在Robinhood的100强排名中排名第57位。这导致SQ的价格比去年上涨了135%，市值超过1000亿美元，交易波动性相当于中型公司。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a&nbsp;banking license&nbsp;via Square Financial Services.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，价格和估值似乎是合理的，该公司通过Cash App、比特币（BTC-USD）、PPP贷款不断增加收入并扩大其产品组合，最近还通过Square Financial Services获得银行牌照。</blockquote></p><p> However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于对未来收入预测的猜测，这些估值正与公司及其核心业务的基本面脱钩，而未来收入预测严重依赖于比特币收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自SQ Investor Relations（2021年第一季度历史财务信息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，SQ还可能面临与小企业定位相关的其他几个问题；政策和法规；以及一般宏观经济因素，这些因素可能会产生不利因素，影响其估值并给投资者带来不对称的下行风险，我将在下面进行推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家支付处理和商业工具提供商，促进企业/卖家和个人之间的交易，并为他们提供硬件、在线基础设施和分析。此外，它还通过现金应用程序为个人提供服务，该应用程序似乎呈指数级增长，允许用户发送、接收、持有和投资资金，最近还有比特币。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信-现金App流入与毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of March 2020, the&nbsp;company has received a Banking License&nbsp;from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月，该公司已获得联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）的银行牌照，可以向使用SQ进行支付处理的零售商发放商业贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于所有这些积极消息，根据未来增长预测，该股在过去3年中上涨了330%以上，并且自2020年以来一直追逐收入预期也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p><p><blockquote>这在新冠疫情期间很常见，因为未知的水域意味着营收增长对于生存至关重要。此外，美联储似乎无休止的印钞，加上零利率，意味着资金流入显示出最高增长潜力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（2021年SQ与EPS预估和收入预估）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在2021年第一季度，随着印刷放缓，收益率开始上升，联邦对个人的转移支付消失，因此不断增加的收入预期对市场的意义开始减弱，导致SQ价格走势在200美元至280美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（年初至今SQ价格）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Quantitative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数量的</b></blockquote></p><p> Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，SQ相对于支付处理行业表现良好，为股东带来了约12%的价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector &gt;$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（SQ与支付处理行业今年迄今&gt;500亿美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>当根据远期收益和收入对这些公司进行评估时，也就不足为奇了。SQ 2021年和2022年的盈利增长高于平均水平和中位数，2021年的收入增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，行业比较（支付处理商）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然与同行相比，SQ的远期市盈率似乎被夸大了，但其远期市盈率相对较小，低于行业平均水平和中位数，这或许证明了其现值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一旦你将比特币收入从等式中剔除，你就会得到对收入增长低得多的预期PS估计，而收入增长代表了SQ的主要业务。</blockquote></p><p> For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在这个等式中，我从2021年第一季度的业绩中删除了比特币的收入，并根据分析师的平均预期判断，该预期显示2021年第二季度至第四季度的收入几乎没有环比增长，将该数字乘以4倍，得出年终收入估计为61.407亿美元。前几年，我已将比特币从收入中删除。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ收入增长（2018年至2021年比特币与不包括比特币的预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ与行业比较（收入预测不包括比特币）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，这描绘了该公司截然不同的图景，虽然收入增长仍略高于市盈率也很高的公司，但盈利估值突然看起来更有意义，并且很难证明远期市盈率高于平均水平3倍是合理的，比中位数高4.5倍。尤其是当美国运通公司(AXP)、万事达卡公司(MA)、PayPal控股公司(PYPL)和Visa Inc(V)等公司的每股收益平均高出4倍时。其中大多数支付股息，并具有类似的增长预期，但波动风险较小。</blockquote></p><p> Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which&nbsp;Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p><p><blockquote>许多人会认为“这并不重要，因为BTC现在是他们收入指标的一部分，也就是说，除了交易量之外，才是重要的”。然而，我想举2018年比特币抛售的例子，比特币下跌了70%，交易量也从高点下跌了约75%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Bitcoinvisuals.com（2018年比特币市场交易量）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，如果比特币因全球监管力度加大而继续回调，这将给投资者带来巨大的下行风险，因为该公司本质上是根据比特币支持的收入指标进行交易的。很简单，比特币的价格下跌可能意味着收入预期的下调，从而导致SQ价格的高度波动回撤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（SQ价格相关性-收入、EPS和EBITDA）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股与同行相比的历史波动性，这种情况变得越来越有可能，而且它也成为共识空头头寸也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者（SQ与行业比较隐含波动率和已实现波动率以及空头利息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend&nbsp;in which the author suggests that&nbsp;SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in&nbsp;I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于另一位Seeking Alpha撰稿人的分析，我不得不同意作者认为SQ 2025年增长的价值趋势基本上已被定价。SQ对收入预测的依赖被比特币大幅放大，给投资者带来了中短期内不对称的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macro</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宏观的</b></blockquote></p><p> Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们正处于重新开放的过程中，但许多事情仍然不确定，如需求可持续性、就业增长和创造以及通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p><p><blockquote>虽然媒体的情绪总体上是积极的，但在我们得出结论认为我们是清白的之前，有几个宏观经济问题需要解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Environment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业环境</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p><p><blockquote>SQ的MRQ显示，近49%的毛利润来自卖家生态系统（小企业）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度10Q第39页-细分毛利）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with &lt;$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>其中大部分来自支付总额低于500,000美元的卖家（69.5%）。这使得square很大程度上受到小企业周期波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p><p><blockquote>深入研究业务形成统计数据，有一个乐观的画面，2021年5月超过500,000个业务应用程序为SQ提供了无尽的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Census.gov（商业应用，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p><p><blockquote>同样，当我们深入挖掘并查看排名成熟小企业乐观情绪的统计数据时，情况开始扭曲，开始看起来像是进入2008年的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势-乐观，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当我们考察小企业未来的扩张前景时，这也降至低点，与2008年类似。这可能表明SQ毛利率的主要组成部分可能不会以2017年至2020年期间的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势-展望，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，应该指出的是，小企业给出负面前景的两个主要原因是“经济状况”和“政治气候”，这可能与2020年的选举、COVID、最近的政策变化有关，并且在某种程度上是暂时的。或者，它可能类似于2008年至2016年的缓慢三月，我们只是不知道，除了它是一个较低的读数，因此可能会影响SQ的高收入和盈利增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势-展望原因，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Lending</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业贷款</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the&nbsp;PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，SQ显然旨在通过获得银行牌照来巩固其在商业贷款领域的地位。这对该公司来说非常积极，因为他们庞大且不断增长的小型企业用户群、他们自2014年以来的经验以及于2021年5月31日停止的PPP计划。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p><p><blockquote>目前，由于COVID的复苏努力，银行贷款已经减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（美国商业银行-商业和工业贷款）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the&nbsp;monthly NFIB report. Although, an&nbsp;American Banker survey&nbsp;is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过NFIB月度报告中的信用状况指数来验证。尽管如此，美国银行家的一项调查报告称，86%的小企业发现很难获得信贷，不得不求助于个人信贷。</blockquote></p><p> This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of&nbsp;capital restraints&nbsp;placed on Wells Fargo &amp; Company (WFC).</p><p><blockquote>这对SQ来说是积极的，因为这将使他们能够填补市场上小企业的信贷缺口。尽管我认为这将是短暂的，因为有人猜测，当美联储缩减规模时，他们还将宣布取消对富国银行（WFC）的资本限制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：瑞士信贷（Global Money Dispatch–2021年5月25日）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had&nbsp;lifted these restraints&nbsp;to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美联储在2020年初取消了这些限制，以通过PPP计划帮助小企业，而且缩减购债规模有扰乱市场的历史，这种情况发生的可能性相当大。如果发生这种情况，我怀疑WFC将再次成为小企业信贷领域的巨头，并由于其在该领域广泛的网络和历史而成为SQ非常强劲的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin, Legislation &amp; Gensler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币、立法和詹斯勒</b></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor&nbsp;banks&nbsp;have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the&nbsp;purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p><p><blockquote>比特币在2020年下半年和2021年上半年的大部分时间里一直是头条新闻，这是有充分理由的。它在散户交易者和投资者中越来越受欢迎，并表现出非凡的赞赏。此外，一些小型银行对这种媒介很感兴趣，尽管许多银行和金融机构已经明确禁止使用其服务购买比特币。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as&nbsp;money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p><p><blockquote>他们反对的主要原因很可能与非法活动有关，如洗钱、恐怖主义、虚假交易量以及我不想参与的类似活动，银行也不想参与。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China&nbsp;and&nbsp;India.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在最近的炒作中，许多国家现在正在介入监管比特币的使用，但其他国家更进一步，正在颁布立法禁止其使用和开采，最明显的是中印两国。</blockquote></p><p> This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p><p><blockquote>自2021年5月ATHs约65,000美元以来，这对比特币的价格产生了负面影响，此后回撤了-46%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with&nbsp;Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p><p><blockquote>这对比特币的未来也是极其不利的，因为比特币的大部分挖矿都是在中国完成的（年初至今约70%），挖矿的算力与价格相关。因此，如果这些因素因中国采矿活动减少而消退，价格肯定会随之上涨，从而影响SQ的比特币持有量和未来交易量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：剑桥大学（剑桥比特币电力消费指数年初至今）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst the SEC has come out and said that&nbsp;Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has&nbsp;warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to&nbsp;2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>虽然SEC已经站出来表示，比特币监管不在他们2021年的议程上，但Gary Gensler警告投资者要谨慎。Gensler在保护投资者的监管方面也有着悠久的历史，尽管没有将比特币列入2021年的议程，但我建议读者研究他在2000年和2008年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p><p><blockquote>进一步看，总体而言，这对比特币和SQ来说并不是一个好兆头。很可能会有进一步的监管而不是采用，从而对其价格产生负面影响，导致2018年产量和采矿活动的下降重演。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体经济——零售业的担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout&nbsp;2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p><p><blockquote>另外，我们也可能会看到零售业未来的负面形势。零售业的复苏在很大程度上不是由“被压抑的需求”推动的，而是主要通过2020年和2021年初发放的补贴。当检查下图时，我们可以看到，一旦你减去转移收入（政府刺激支票和就业福利——红线），收入就不再是以前的样子了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行（可支配收入vs实际收入减去转账vs个人储蓄vs零售贸易销售）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们可以看到，零售额（紫色）的飙升主要是由刺激支票推动的，刺激支票增加了可支配收入（蓝色）和消费者储蓄（绿色），尽管现在刺激已经结束，人们不得不开始挖掘他们的储蓄，3月至4月期间环比下降了54%。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is&nbsp;considered to be the most revealing&nbsp;amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>在检查U6失业率时，消费者支出情况变得更糟，U6失业率被认为是经济学家中最能揭示问题的，因为它包括失业、未充分就业和灰心丧气的求职者。一般来说，这对未来消费者可自由支配支出模式来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Macrotrends.net（U6失业率vs U5 vs官方）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p><p><blockquote>最后，食品和能源成本的上涨（我预计食品成本将持续上涨）应该会阻碍消费者未来的可自由支配支出。我以前写过关于马赛克公司（MOS）和安德森公司（ANDE）的文章，概述了我对这一趋势的理由。</blockquote></p><p> In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，我们可以根据2019年底的数据查看他们对消费者可自由支配支出的历史敞口。当考虑到以下数据时：零售；专业服务、美容及个护、家居及维修、休闲娱乐及休闲使用，总曝光量约为59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista（Raynor de Best–卖家行业GPV，2019年12月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p><p><blockquote>虽然由于比特币的权重，这可能不会对其收入数据产生重大影响，但我确实预计这将削弱未来的毛利润数据，并随着刺激措施进一步消退对利润率产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p><p><blockquote>在检查SQ的财务状况时，我们可以很容易地看到，比特币是推动其收入增长的主要因素（MRQ占总收入的69%），其估值也由此得出（参见上面的介绍部分-SQ价格与收入部分；和定量部分-SQ价格相关性）。</blockquote></p><p> From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年第一季度股东信第12页中，他们表示，截至2021年3月31日，他们所持股份的公允价值为4.72亿美元。这一天的收盘价为58,918.83美元，约合8,011个比特币。他们还表示，在此期间和第四季度，他们最初向比特币投资了2亿美元，因此他们的平均价格约为每个比特币25,000美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p><p><blockquote>目前，比特币的价格约为34,600美元，它似乎也很难找到吸引力，尤其是当你研究其他一些趋势时。例如，看看谷歌趋势上“购买比特币”的搜索趋势，这显然正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词-全球5年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当你将这些数据与刺激支付联系起来时，很明显这两者在2020年下半年存在关系，最近的大部分猜测可能是由政府补贴驱动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USA.Gov（新冠刺激支票日期）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>搜索量的激增大约发生在后两次政府刺激支票的时间，有几天到几周的滞后。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词-美国12个月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这也与比特币在2020年12月和2021年1月的价格上涨以及2021年3月和4月的失败反弹相吻合。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（比特币价格1年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在这个例子中，如果我们持续抛售-70%，这与2018年发生的情况类似。我们将回到2020年11月比特币价格约为20,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在数量减少、进一步立法和哈希率下降的基础上，这仍然是可行的。从理论上讲，SQ可能会产生4000万美元的减值费用，这将极大地影响营业收入、净利润和股东收益以及未来预期。尽管这纯粹是理论上的，没有考虑当前季度的交易，例如在ATH或附近的购买或销售。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于未来缺乏刺激付款以及消费者可自由支配支出收紧，随着进入该领域的资金减少和销量下降，比特币产生的收入也可能下降。对SQ的收入估计以及随后的价格和估值产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash App</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金应用程序</b></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，Cash App正在呈指数级增长，成为用户交易的可行平台，每月交易活跃客户超过3600万，同比增长50%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cash App的这种增长未来可能是不可持续的，SQ在其季度备案说明中详细阐述了这一点：</blockquote></p><p>   Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from&nbsp;  <b>government relief programs</b>&nbsp;most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i>  Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>Cash App收入受益于Cash App活跃客户数量的增长以及<b>政府救济计划</b>最近于2020年12月下旬和2021年3月通过成为法律，以及2020年通过的早期刺激计划的累积收益。这些计划提供了额外的刺激救济和失业福利，导致消费者支出和流入我们的Cash App生态系统的资金增加。Cash App的收入增长在未来几个季度可能无法维持在相同水平，并且可能会受到进一步刺激救济和福利计划的颁布以及比特币的需求和市场价格等因素的影响。<i>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度10Q文件–第49页）</i>Cash App的部分问题是理论上的持续使用和未来的采用。去年的大部分增长主要是由通过Cash App生态系统进行的刺激支付推动的，因此在这种情况下是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p><p><blockquote>该应用程序的搜索量出现了两次急剧上升：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>April 12-18 2020</li>  <li>January 24-30 2021</li> </ul> These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2020年4月12日至18日</li><li>2021年1月24日至30日</li></ul>这些与刺激付款相吻合，因为他们最初发送这些款项，并逐渐将其存入人们的账户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（现金应用搜索词-美国5年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>因此，随着政府刺激付款结束，比特币再次失去相关性，越来越多的人重返工作岗位，日间交易减少，这可能会对未来的用户增长指标产生负面影响，影响SQ的收入估计、毛利润数据及其收益。</blockquote></p><p> Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有许多其他更可行的平台，另一位Seeking Alpha撰稿人The Value Trend在这里详细介绍了这些平台。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要记住他们如何定义这些用户，“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”如下：</blockquote></p><p>   ... has at least  <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i>  So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p><p><blockquote>...至少有<b>一笔金融交易</b>在指定期间内使用Cash App内的任何产品或服务。<i>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信-第4页）</i>因此，如果客户每月一次从雇主那里收到工资或失业救济金，并每月一次将所有工资转入他们的银行账户，那么他们就是“交易活跃现金应用客户”...</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p><p><blockquote>也许一个“活跃”客户的更好的量词是大于5笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p><p><blockquote>检查SQ的技术面，很明显该股目前在200美元至280美元之间波动，在250美元处有几次突破尝试，在300美元附近有两次失败的尝试，显示出几个迹象表明势头正在消失。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自FINVIZ（SQ图表）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在检查暗池订单流时，由于暗池处于低点，当前的反弹有可能继续，这可能会持续到8月份的收益中。尽管我不会抱太大希望，除非出现一些严重的好消息，比特币反弹回ATHs。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Squeezemetrics.com（SQ暗池与隐含Vol 2年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>从13F备案中也可以看到，不少基金降低了敞口并平仓，新增仓位较少。看跌期权与看涨期权的比率也变得相当高，尤其是在市值为1000亿美元的股票上，这表明我们并不是唯一有同样想法的人。</blockquote></p><p> Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p><p><blockquote>但需要谨慎，因为SQ与比特币的问题显然正在成为共识交易，当这些看跌期权被取消时，伽马可能会转为正值，并可能导致该股大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Whalewisdom.com（SQ基金定位）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been&nbsp;significant liquidity issues&nbsp;the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，就ARK ETF而言，过去6个月出现重大流动性问题也就不足为奇了，我同意另一位Seeking Alpha撰稿人的论点，即我们将看到这些ETF中持有的股票价格回归均值。值得注意的是，Cathie已经显著减少了她对SQ的接触，她可能正在选择她的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Cathiesark.com（持有SQ股票-所有ETF）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于上述信息，这是一家很难做空的公司。它要么会带来巨大的回报，要么会因为它的波动性而撕碎你的脸。此外，许多基金希望对财务报表上有比特币的公司进行少量投资。因此，如果您要自担风险将其作为空头进行交易，建议谨慎行事，并且您应该始终选择战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p><p><blockquote>根据SQ ATR的波动性，SQ有可能在今年年底前跌至约100美元的低点，40%的情况下走势有利。如果你把比特币完全从等式中剔除，这与我的2021年底价格一致。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者（SQ ATR计算器）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这样做是不明智的，因为这是他们目前收入的一部分，无论2021年初比特币的销量有多高，年底可能有多低。</blockquote></p><p> I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p><p><blockquote>我确实预计该股将再次下跌并重新测试200美元，可能跌破160美元。尽管很难确定SQ的估值，主要是因为估值来自比特币收入，以及基金和市场在未来采用该资产时的感知价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p><p><blockquote>如果市场再次开始认为比特币无关紧要，我预计SQ将慢慢抛售至150美元至160美元之间（下跌-37%），反弹超过300美元（上涨25%）的可能性很低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，应注意以下风险。</blockquote></p><p> The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p><p><blockquote>不管你喜不喜欢SQ，公司都在成长。主要问题是：市场会在任何现实基础上对比特币进行估值吗？不管有没有比特币，它增长了多少？无论有没有比特币，未来的潜在增长是多少？市场相信吗，或者就此而言在乎吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币失去相关性，从谷歌趋势来看，这种可能性更大，那么假设SQ将因此在2021年下半年遭受损失并对收入预期造成重大打击并不奇怪。然而，如果比特币的采用率增加并且负面消息消退，由于这是一家成长型公司，它可能会继续上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p><p><blockquote>此外，消费者支出模式正在产生混合数据，上面我提出了一个熊市案例。如果人们的行为发生变化，例如申请将增加经济支出的工作，并有望产生小企业增长，增加小企业的乐观情绪和扩张，这对于SQ作为支付处理领域的周期性企业非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>同样，谨慎是必要的，尽管我确实认为公司未来的增长已被定价，SQ持有者面临的下行风险高于上行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家高增长公司，从长远来看具有一些潜在的积极点；然而，其估值非常值得怀疑，因为其高收入预期主要来自比特币交易，而不是盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>从定量角度来看，它在同行中看起来不错，但经过进一步检查，它似乎被严重高估，因为未来的增长（至少2021年）可能来自比特币。此外，如果没有政府的持续刺激，其Cash App采用统计数据可能不会继续看到相同的运行率。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，它还面临着一些潜在的宏观经济障碍，包括小企业风险、贷款竞争对手、消费者交易竞争对手、比特币立法和零售需求疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117734317","content_text":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.\nIn reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.\nThis has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.\nAnd whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.\nGiven the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.\n\nAndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nSquare Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the most popular stocks among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.\nOn the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a banking license via Square Financial Services.\nHowever, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.\nSource: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)\nIn addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.\nOverview\nSQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)\nAs of March 2020, the company has received a Banking License from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.\nGiven all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.\nThis was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)\nHowever, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)\nQuantitative\nYear to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector >$50 bln Year to Date)\nIt is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.\nSource: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)\nWhilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.\nHowever, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.\nFor this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.\nSource: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)\nSource: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)\nAs we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.\nMany will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:\nSource: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)\nOn a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)\nThis becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.\nSource: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)\nGiven the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend in which the author suggests that SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.\nMacro\nWhilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.\nWhilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.\nSmall Business Environment\nSQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)\nThe majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with <$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)\nDelving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.\nSource: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)\nAgain, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)\nFurther, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)\nAdditionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)\nSmall Business Lending\nLooking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.\nCurrently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.\nSource: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)\nThis can be verified through the credit conditions index in the monthly NFIB report. Although, an American Banker survey is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.\nThis is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of capital restraints placed on Wells Fargo & Company (WFC).\nSource: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)\nThere is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had lifted these restraints to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.\nBitcoin, Legislation & Gensler\nBitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor banks have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the purchase of Bitcoin using their services.\nThe primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.\nConsequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China and India.\nThis has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.\nIt is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.\nSource: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)\nWhilst the SEC has come out and said that Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to 2000 and 2008.\nLooking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.\nGeneral Economy - The Worry for Retail\nSeparately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout 2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.\nSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)\nAdditionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.\nThe consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is considered to be the most revealing amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.\nSource: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)\nFinally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.\nIn relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.\nSource: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)\nWhilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.\nFinancials\nBitcoin\nWhen examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).\nFrom their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.\nCurrently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)\nAdditionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.\nSource: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)\nThe spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)\nThis also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.\nSource: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)\nThus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.\nThis is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.\nAdditionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.\nCash App\nOn the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)\nHowever, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:\n\n Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from \n government relief programs most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)\n\nPart of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.\nThe two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:\n\nApril 12-18 2020\nJanuary 24-30 2021\n\nThese coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.\nSource: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)\nTherefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.\nFurther, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.\nIt is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:\n\n ... has at least\n one financial transactionusing any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)\n\nSo, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...\nPerhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.\nTechnicals\nExamining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.\nSource: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)\nWhen examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.\nSource: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)\nFrom the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.\nCaution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.\nSource: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)\nFurther, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been significant liquidity issues the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.\nSource: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)\nGiven the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.\nPrice Targets\nOn the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.\nSource: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)\nHowever, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.\nI do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.\nIf the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).\nRisks\nWith respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.\nThe company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?\nIf the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.\nFurther, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.\nAgain, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.\nSummary\nSQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.\nFrom a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.\nAdditionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":146410159,"gmtCreate":1626096194371,"gmtModify":1631890333776,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like my comment","listText":"Please like my comment","text":"Please like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146410159","repostId":"2150653548","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120917634,"gmtCreate":1624291801828,"gmtModify":1634008249868,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool, stuff","listText":"Cool, stuff","text":"Cool, stuff","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120917634","repostId":"1154361270","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156544000,"gmtCreate":1625232751300,"gmtModify":1631890333816,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my post pls","listText":"Like my post pls","text":"Like my post pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156544000","repostId":"1129664890","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129664890","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625232423,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129664890?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ROKU: The Next Step<blockquote>ROKU：下一步</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129664890","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.\nThe stock price d","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.</li>  <li>The stock price depends on whether it uses the capital to the value of shareholders.</li>  <li>Astronomical gains in top-line growth and cash flow are witnesses. However, high P/S and P/CF are still a concern.</li>  <li>We're risking it by going long as the early signs of acquisitions have been encouraging.</li>  <li>Tread lightly with the risks involved.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b00a4fa1d444c1076f1bb7fa30c1199\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"566\"><span>Arturo Holmes/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ROKU的股票处于平衡状态，因为它首次报告剩余。</li><li>股票价格取决于它是否使用资本对股东的价值。</li><li>营收增长和现金流的天文数字增长就是见证。然而，高P/S和P/CF仍然是一个问题。</li><li>由于收购的早期迹象令人鼓舞，我们冒着做多的风险。</li><li>对其中的风险要轻描淡写。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>阿图罗·霍姆斯/盖蒂图片社娱乐公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> For those who aren't aware, Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) is the leading TV streaming platform in the United States, with an active user base of over&nbsp;50 million. The company partners with TV brands which allows it to manufacture and sell its content via its platform.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，Roku（纳斯达克：Roku）是美国领先的电视流媒体平台，活跃用户群超过5000万。该公司与电视品牌合作，使其能够通过其平台制作和销售内容。</blockquote></p><p> The company operates through two segments namely platform and player.</p><p><blockquote>该公司通过两个部门运营，即平台和播放器。</blockquote></p><p> The platform segment allows users to gain access to television and movies. The player segment offers streaming players, audio products, and accessories through the ROKU name. Further to the business is significant ad revenue as most tech companies have these days.</p><p><blockquote>平台部分允许用户观看电视和电影。播放器部门通过ROKU名称提供流媒体播放器、音频产品和配件。除了这项业务之外，还有大量的广告收入，就像如今大多数科技公司一样。</blockquote></p><p> ROKU is still in its growth stage and has gained significant traction from investors&nbsp;since listing&nbsp;on the Nasdaq in 2017.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU仍处于成长期，自2017年在纳斯达克上市以来，已获得投资者的大力关注。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials&nbsp;</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Top-Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>顶线</b></blockquote></p><p> ROKU reported&nbsp;63.46%&nbsp;in year-over-year revenue growth the past year. The company has a 5-year average growth rate in revenue of&nbsp;40.9%, which ranks in the 99th sector percentile. ROKU's core business is growing well, with&nbsp;101%&nbsp;year-over-year growth in revenue due to an increase in platform usage of 4.5% in the past quarter. We think that ad revenue will add sustainability to the firm's revenue as competition rises through improved products from Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)streaming services. ROKU has entered into a&nbsp;strategic alliance&nbsp;with Nielsen to access their ad content. ROKU also completed asset acquisitions in the deal by acquiring Nielsen's AVA and DAI technologies to improve content recognition and ad insertion.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU去年的收入同比增长了63.46%。该公司的收入5年平均增长率为40.9%，在行业中排名第99位。ROKU的核心业务增长良好，由于上个季度平台使用量增长了4.5%，收入同比增长了101%。我们认为，随着苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）和谷歌（纳斯达克：GOOG）（纳斯达克：GOOGL）流媒体服务改进产品带来的竞争加剧，广告收入将增加公司收入的可持续性。ROKU已经与尼尔森建立了战略联盟，以访问他们的广告内容。ROKU还在该交易中完成了资产收购，收购了尼尔森的AVA和DAI技术，以提高内容识别和广告插入。</blockquote></p><p> We think that added efficiency and synergies will improve the sustainability of the company's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，提高效率和协同效应将提高公司盈利的可持续性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>User Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>用户增长</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7660020b92ea61b62566e9ac2ac6cd02\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ROKU has undoubtedly expanded rapidly during the lockdown, and this is an anomaly that can't be denied. But something worth looking at is the company's gradual increase before the pandemic. We don't think that ROKU is a one-hit-wonder by any stretch of the imagination, and user growth looks set to continue growing.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU在封锁期间无疑迅速扩张，这是一个不可否认的异常现象。但值得关注的是该公司在大流行之前的逐步增长。无论怎么想象，我们都不认为ROKU是一个昙花一现的奇迹，而且用户增长似乎将继续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27f287b57a10fb5d043ef20b96b548a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\"><span>Source: GuruFocus</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：GuruFocus</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To consolidate the argument, we've pulled up the return on invested capital chart. The ROIC is a good indicator of a company's competitive stance within an industry. The recent growth in ROIC indicates that ROKU is still expanding well in itsindustry. We think that increased third-party distributors and increased investment in the ROKU channels contributed immensely to the uptick in ROIC. Furthermore, factors such as Disney+ and NBC Universal Peacock, HBO Max, and Discovery+ have and will stimulate further user growth.</p><p><blockquote>为了巩固论点，我们调出了投资资本回报率图表。ROIC是公司在行业内竞争地位的良好指标。最近投资回报率的增长表明ROKU在其行业中仍在良好扩张。我们认为，第三方分销商的增加和对ROKU渠道投资的增加极大地促进了投资回报率的上升。此外，迪士尼+和NBC环球孔雀、HBO Max和Discovery+等因素已经并将刺激用户进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom-Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe252a78a1b9f030d0518689d2bfb148\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"109\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/731e79eb9769e07f6760b43a0670f444\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"129\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Very important to us are net income and normalized net income. The reasons are that the company finally turned a profit in Q-1 and now has residual to work with. The factor is unusual items. ROKU's normalized net income excludes unusual earnings, the fact that they're still reporting positive normalized net income is a big plus.</p><p><blockquote>对我们来说非常重要的是净利润和正常化净利润。原因是该公司最终在第一季度扭亏为盈，现在还有剩余可供处理。因素是不寻常的项目。ROKU的正常化净利润不包括异常收益，事实上他们仍然报告正的正常化净利润是一个很大的优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Multiples</b></p><p><blockquote><b>倍数</b></blockquote></p><p> Seeing that ROKU is now profitable, we can apply a few multiples for analysis. To start with, we looked at the price to sales. This metric can be used at any stage of the business cycle. ROKU is in a growth phase, and we think it's not easy to interpret the other multiples without looking at this one first.(The base data can be found on&nbsp;Seeking Alpha)</p><p><blockquote>看到ROKU现在盈利了，我们可以套用几个倍数进行分析。首先，我们看了价格与销售额的关系。该指标可用于业务周期的任何阶段。ROKU正处于增长阶段，我们认为如果不先看看这个倍数，就很难解释其他倍数。（基本数据可以在Seeking Alpha上找到）</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Market Cap/Annual Sales = 10.27</li> </ul> Considering that we'd like to see a price to sales ratio of between 1 and 2, ROKU is trading at a premium. It has to be considered that sales are growing at an average rate of above 40% annually.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市值/年销售额=10.27</li></ul>考虑到我们希望看到市销率在1到2之间，ROKU的交易价格溢价。必须考虑到销售额正以年均40%以上的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> Another ratio we can look at is the price to cash flow, which is a great metric to use as cash flow resembles the intrinsic value.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以考虑的另一个比率是价格与现金流，这是一个很好的指标，因为现金流类似于内在价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>Share price/Cash flow per share = $460/$1.72 = 267.44</li> </ul> Again, this is a high multiple, and we'd like to see a price to cash flow ratio of between 15-20. ROKU has seen an unlevered free cash flow growth worth&nbsp;181.51%&nbsp;over the last year but only has a free cash flow yield of&nbsp;0.3%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股价/每股现金流=$460/$1.72=267.44</li></ul>同样，这是一个很高的倍数，我们希望看到价格与现金流的比率在15-20之间。ROKU去年的无杠杆自由现金流增长率为181.51%，但自由现金流收益率仅为0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> The cash flows are still too volatile to forecast the intrinsic value and leading P/E ratio.</p><p><blockquote>现金流仍然波动太大，无法预测内在价值和领先市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026ba34f1e658421a653fef0403c2ba5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect massive upside in EPS but we think that this is fantasy. The main reason is the fact that the company now holds residual. Let's explain why.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计每股收益将大幅上涨，但我们认为这只是幻想。主要原因是公司现在持有剩余。让我们解释一下原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Use Of Residual</b></p><p><blockquote><b>剩余的使用</b></blockquote></p><p> Essential to any stock's valuation is the asset base. Sure ROKU will probably trade at a premium to its asset base due to intellectual property and other intangible assets. However, the fundamental asset base growth is significant, and we think that their M&amp;A strategy will ultimately determine the stock's fate.</p><p><blockquote>任何股票估值的关键是资产基础。当然，由于知识产权和其他无形资产，ROKU的交易价格可能会高于其资产基础。然而，基本资产基础增长显着，我们认为他们的并购策略将最终决定该股的命运。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at acquisition strategies.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看收购策略。</blockquote></p><p> To start off with, we'll discuss the importance of data and asset acquisitions for tech companies. Data and asset acquisitions allow for organic growth to be amplified due to the synergies. Purchasing the 'ready-made' innovation is much more effective than innovating from scratch yourself.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们将讨论数据和资产收购对科技公司的重要性。由于协同效应，数据和资产收购可以放大有机增长。购买“现成的”创新比自己从头开始创新要有效得多。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, let's discuss verticals. Vertical integration allows for acquisitions up and down the value chain. These acquisitions allow for cost-cutting through bargaining power and pricing leadership in the market. If ROKU goes this way, they'll add tremendous value to their asset base.</p><p><blockquote>其次，我们来讨论垂直领域。垂直整合允许在价值链上下游进行收购。这些收购可以通过市场上的议价能力和定价领导地位来削减成本。如果ROKU走这条路，他们将为其资产基础增加巨大的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Now for horizontals. If ROKU chooses to acquire horizontally for the purpose of gaining market share and reducing potential competitors, they'll end up paying premiums and ending up in many litigation fights. Not very good for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>现在是水平线。如果ROKU为了获得市场份额和减少潜在竞争对手而选择横向收购，他们最终将支付溢价并陷入许多诉讼。对股东来说不是很好。</blockquote></p><p> Other uses of capital.</p><p><blockquote>资本的其他用途。</blockquote></p><p> ROKU could simply increase its headcount and continue developing internally. This is also not a very efficient way of going about adding shareholder value. It's unlikely that the company will pay dividends and engage in share buyback programs at this stage as it's still in a growth phase.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU可以简单地增加员工数量并继续内部发展。这也不是增加股东价值的非常有效的方式。该公司现阶段不太可能支付股息并参与股票回购计划，因为它仍处于增长阶段。</blockquote></p><p> The early signs are that they're completing asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>早期迹象表明他们正在完成资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b8ae004c046f2ab6dae4dc02de6b25c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"><span>Source: Crunchbase</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Crunchbase</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Old House Ventures&nbsp;was acquired to add to its content and bring synergies to the table. Nielsen, as discussed, brings further expansion to the platform and is another lean asset acquisition. The Giraffic deal adds to their cloud space, this is another smart acquisition. Also adding to ad revenue is the acquisition of&nbsp;dataxu, another good acquisition in our opinion. And finally,Dynastrom&nbsp;was an acquisition that adds to ROKU's engineering team.</p><p><blockquote>收购Old House Ventures是为了增加其内容并带来协同效应。如前所述，尼尔森为该平台带来了进一步的扩展，是另一项精益资产收购。Giraffic交易增加了他们的云空间，这是另一次明智的收购。收购dataxu也增加了广告收入，我们认为这是另一项不错的收购。最后，Dynastrom的收购增强了ROKU的工程团队。</blockquote></p><p> If ROKU continues acquiring in this manner, it will increase the cash value of its future growth opportunities, this is very good for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>如果ROKU继续以这种方式收购，将增加其未来增长机会的现金价值，这对股东来说非常好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shareholder Value</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股东价值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf094989971e65038753abbf9d78cb33\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: GuruFocus</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：GuruFocus</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It remains in the balance as to whether there's a real drive towards shareholder value or not. The EPS is all over the place, which is understandable as many insiders might exercise options during high stock prices. The other side of it is that net income also has been surging. It remains to be seen what the EPS will do. Investors should note that ROKU has a&nbsp;dual-class voting structure, which dilutes shareholder voting rights over insider voting rights.</p><p><blockquote>是否有真正的股东价值驱动力仍悬而未决。每股收益无处不在，这是可以理解的，因为许多内部人士可能会在股价高企期间行使期权。另一方面，净利润也在飙升。EPS会做什么还有待观察。投资者应注意，ROKU拥有双层投票结构，这会稀释股东投票权而不是内部投票权。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Our Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> ROKU is a big gamble at the moment. The company is generating significant topline revenue, and cash flows are growing. If the company follows a similar acquisition strategy as big tech companies, the stock will thrive. If it uses its residual to little effect, the stock might plummet, especially considering the high price to sales and price to cash flow ratios. We're taking our chances nonetheless.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU目前是一场豪赌。该公司正在产生可观的营收，现金流也在增长。如果该公司遵循与大型科技公司类似的收购策略，该股将会蓬勃发展。如果它利用其剩余部分收效甚微，该股可能会暴跌，特别是考虑到较高的市销率和市销率与现金流比率。尽管如此，我们还是在冒险。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ROKU: The Next Step<blockquote>ROKU：下一步</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nROKU: The Next Step<blockquote>ROKU：下一步</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 21:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.</li>  <li>The stock price depends on whether it uses the capital to the value of shareholders.</li>  <li>Astronomical gains in top-line growth and cash flow are witnesses. However, high P/S and P/CF are still a concern.</li>  <li>We're risking it by going long as the early signs of acquisitions have been encouraging.</li>  <li>Tread lightly with the risks involved.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b00a4fa1d444c1076f1bb7fa30c1199\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"566\"><span>Arturo Holmes/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ROKU的股票处于平衡状态，因为它首次报告剩余。</li><li>股票价格取决于它是否使用资本对股东的价值。</li><li>营收增长和现金流的天文数字增长就是见证。然而，高P/S和P/CF仍然是一个问题。</li><li>由于收购的早期迹象令人鼓舞，我们冒着做多的风险。</li><li>对其中的风险要轻描淡写。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>阿图罗·霍姆斯/盖蒂图片社娱乐公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> For those who aren't aware, Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) is the leading TV streaming platform in the United States, with an active user base of over&nbsp;50 million. The company partners with TV brands which allows it to manufacture and sell its content via its platform.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，Roku（纳斯达克：Roku）是美国领先的电视流媒体平台，活跃用户群超过5000万。该公司与电视品牌合作，使其能够通过其平台制作和销售内容。</blockquote></p><p> The company operates through two segments namely platform and player.</p><p><blockquote>该公司通过两个部门运营，即平台和播放器。</blockquote></p><p> The platform segment allows users to gain access to television and movies. The player segment offers streaming players, audio products, and accessories through the ROKU name. Further to the business is significant ad revenue as most tech companies have these days.</p><p><blockquote>平台部分允许用户观看电视和电影。播放器部门通过ROKU名称提供流媒体播放器、音频产品和配件。除了这项业务之外，还有大量的广告收入，就像如今大多数科技公司一样。</blockquote></p><p> ROKU is still in its growth stage and has gained significant traction from investors&nbsp;since listing&nbsp;on the Nasdaq in 2017.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU仍处于成长期，自2017年在纳斯达克上市以来，已获得投资者的大力关注。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials&nbsp;</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Top-Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>顶线</b></blockquote></p><p> ROKU reported&nbsp;63.46%&nbsp;in year-over-year revenue growth the past year. The company has a 5-year average growth rate in revenue of&nbsp;40.9%, which ranks in the 99th sector percentile. ROKU's core business is growing well, with&nbsp;101%&nbsp;year-over-year growth in revenue due to an increase in platform usage of 4.5% in the past quarter. We think that ad revenue will add sustainability to the firm's revenue as competition rises through improved products from Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)streaming services. ROKU has entered into a&nbsp;strategic alliance&nbsp;with Nielsen to access their ad content. ROKU also completed asset acquisitions in the deal by acquiring Nielsen's AVA and DAI technologies to improve content recognition and ad insertion.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU去年的收入同比增长了63.46%。该公司的收入5年平均增长率为40.9%，在行业中排名第99位。ROKU的核心业务增长良好，由于上个季度平台使用量增长了4.5%，收入同比增长了101%。我们认为，随着苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）和谷歌（纳斯达克：GOOG）（纳斯达克：GOOGL）流媒体服务改进产品带来的竞争加剧，广告收入将增加公司收入的可持续性。ROKU已经与尼尔森建立了战略联盟，以访问他们的广告内容。ROKU还在该交易中完成了资产收购，收购了尼尔森的AVA和DAI技术，以提高内容识别和广告插入。</blockquote></p><p> We think that added efficiency and synergies will improve the sustainability of the company's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，提高效率和协同效应将提高公司盈利的可持续性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>User Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>用户增长</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7660020b92ea61b62566e9ac2ac6cd02\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ROKU has undoubtedly expanded rapidly during the lockdown, and this is an anomaly that can't be denied. But something worth looking at is the company's gradual increase before the pandemic. We don't think that ROKU is a one-hit-wonder by any stretch of the imagination, and user growth looks set to continue growing.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU在封锁期间无疑迅速扩张，这是一个不可否认的异常现象。但值得关注的是该公司在大流行之前的逐步增长。无论怎么想象，我们都不认为ROKU是一个昙花一现的奇迹，而且用户增长似乎将继续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27f287b57a10fb5d043ef20b96b548a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\"><span>Source: GuruFocus</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：GuruFocus</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To consolidate the argument, we've pulled up the return on invested capital chart. The ROIC is a good indicator of a company's competitive stance within an industry. The recent growth in ROIC indicates that ROKU is still expanding well in itsindustry. We think that increased third-party distributors and increased investment in the ROKU channels contributed immensely to the uptick in ROIC. Furthermore, factors such as Disney+ and NBC Universal Peacock, HBO Max, and Discovery+ have and will stimulate further user growth.</p><p><blockquote>为了巩固论点，我们调出了投资资本回报率图表。ROIC是公司在行业内竞争地位的良好指标。最近投资回报率的增长表明ROKU在其行业中仍在良好扩张。我们认为，第三方分销商的增加和对ROKU渠道投资的增加极大地促进了投资回报率的上升。此外，迪士尼+和NBC环球孔雀、HBO Max和Discovery+等因素已经并将刺激用户进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom-Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe252a78a1b9f030d0518689d2bfb148\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"109\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/731e79eb9769e07f6760b43a0670f444\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"129\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Very important to us are net income and normalized net income. The reasons are that the company finally turned a profit in Q-1 and now has residual to work with. The factor is unusual items. ROKU's normalized net income excludes unusual earnings, the fact that they're still reporting positive normalized net income is a big plus.</p><p><blockquote>对我们来说非常重要的是净利润和正常化净利润。原因是该公司最终在第一季度扭亏为盈，现在还有剩余可供处理。因素是不寻常的项目。ROKU的正常化净利润不包括异常收益，事实上他们仍然报告正的正常化净利润是一个很大的优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Multiples</b></p><p><blockquote><b>倍数</b></blockquote></p><p> Seeing that ROKU is now profitable, we can apply a few multiples for analysis. To start with, we looked at the price to sales. This metric can be used at any stage of the business cycle. ROKU is in a growth phase, and we think it's not easy to interpret the other multiples without looking at this one first.(The base data can be found on&nbsp;Seeking Alpha)</p><p><blockquote>看到ROKU现在盈利了，我们可以套用几个倍数进行分析。首先，我们看了价格与销售额的关系。该指标可用于业务周期的任何阶段。ROKU正处于增长阶段，我们认为如果不先看看这个倍数，就很难解释其他倍数。（基本数据可以在Seeking Alpha上找到）</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Market Cap/Annual Sales = 10.27</li> </ul> Considering that we'd like to see a price to sales ratio of between 1 and 2, ROKU is trading at a premium. It has to be considered that sales are growing at an average rate of above 40% annually.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市值/年销售额=10.27</li></ul>考虑到我们希望看到市销率在1到2之间，ROKU的交易价格溢价。必须考虑到销售额正以年均40%以上的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> Another ratio we can look at is the price to cash flow, which is a great metric to use as cash flow resembles the intrinsic value.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以考虑的另一个比率是价格与现金流，这是一个很好的指标，因为现金流类似于内在价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>Share price/Cash flow per share = $460/$1.72 = 267.44</li> </ul> Again, this is a high multiple, and we'd like to see a price to cash flow ratio of between 15-20. ROKU has seen an unlevered free cash flow growth worth&nbsp;181.51%&nbsp;over the last year but only has a free cash flow yield of&nbsp;0.3%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股价/每股现金流=$460/$1.72=267.44</li></ul>同样，这是一个很高的倍数，我们希望看到价格与现金流的比率在15-20之间。ROKU去年的无杠杆自由现金流增长率为181.51%，但自由现金流收益率仅为0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> The cash flows are still too volatile to forecast the intrinsic value and leading P/E ratio.</p><p><blockquote>现金流仍然波动太大，无法预测内在价值和领先市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026ba34f1e658421a653fef0403c2ba5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect massive upside in EPS but we think that this is fantasy. The main reason is the fact that the company now holds residual. Let's explain why.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计每股收益将大幅上涨，但我们认为这只是幻想。主要原因是公司现在持有剩余。让我们解释一下原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Use Of Residual</b></p><p><blockquote><b>剩余的使用</b></blockquote></p><p> Essential to any stock's valuation is the asset base. Sure ROKU will probably trade at a premium to its asset base due to intellectual property and other intangible assets. However, the fundamental asset base growth is significant, and we think that their M&amp;A strategy will ultimately determine the stock's fate.</p><p><blockquote>任何股票估值的关键是资产基础。当然，由于知识产权和其他无形资产，ROKU的交易价格可能会高于其资产基础。然而，基本资产基础增长显着，我们认为他们的并购策略将最终决定该股的命运。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at acquisition strategies.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看收购策略。</blockquote></p><p> To start off with, we'll discuss the importance of data and asset acquisitions for tech companies. Data and asset acquisitions allow for organic growth to be amplified due to the synergies. Purchasing the 'ready-made' innovation is much more effective than innovating from scratch yourself.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们将讨论数据和资产收购对科技公司的重要性。由于协同效应，数据和资产收购可以放大有机增长。购买“现成的”创新比自己从头开始创新要有效得多。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, let's discuss verticals. Vertical integration allows for acquisitions up and down the value chain. These acquisitions allow for cost-cutting through bargaining power and pricing leadership in the market. If ROKU goes this way, they'll add tremendous value to their asset base.</p><p><blockquote>其次，我们来讨论垂直领域。垂直整合允许在价值链上下游进行收购。这些收购可以通过市场上的议价能力和定价领导地位来削减成本。如果ROKU走这条路，他们将为其资产基础增加巨大的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Now for horizontals. If ROKU chooses to acquire horizontally for the purpose of gaining market share and reducing potential competitors, they'll end up paying premiums and ending up in many litigation fights. Not very good for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>现在是水平线。如果ROKU为了获得市场份额和减少潜在竞争对手而选择横向收购，他们最终将支付溢价并陷入许多诉讼。对股东来说不是很好。</blockquote></p><p> Other uses of capital.</p><p><blockquote>资本的其他用途。</blockquote></p><p> ROKU could simply increase its headcount and continue developing internally. This is also not a very efficient way of going about adding shareholder value. It's unlikely that the company will pay dividends and engage in share buyback programs at this stage as it's still in a growth phase.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU可以简单地增加员工数量并继续内部发展。这也不是增加股东价值的非常有效的方式。该公司现阶段不太可能支付股息并参与股票回购计划，因为它仍处于增长阶段。</blockquote></p><p> The early signs are that they're completing asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>早期迹象表明他们正在完成资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b8ae004c046f2ab6dae4dc02de6b25c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"><span>Source: Crunchbase</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Crunchbase</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Old House Ventures&nbsp;was acquired to add to its content and bring synergies to the table. Nielsen, as discussed, brings further expansion to the platform and is another lean asset acquisition. The Giraffic deal adds to their cloud space, this is another smart acquisition. Also adding to ad revenue is the acquisition of&nbsp;dataxu, another good acquisition in our opinion. And finally,Dynastrom&nbsp;was an acquisition that adds to ROKU's engineering team.</p><p><blockquote>收购Old House Ventures是为了增加其内容并带来协同效应。如前所述，尼尔森为该平台带来了进一步的扩展，是另一项精益资产收购。Giraffic交易增加了他们的云空间，这是另一次明智的收购。收购dataxu也增加了广告收入，我们认为这是另一项不错的收购。最后，Dynastrom的收购增强了ROKU的工程团队。</blockquote></p><p> If ROKU continues acquiring in this manner, it will increase the cash value of its future growth opportunities, this is very good for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>如果ROKU继续以这种方式收购，将增加其未来增长机会的现金价值，这对股东来说非常好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shareholder Value</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股东价值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf094989971e65038753abbf9d78cb33\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: GuruFocus</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：GuruFocus</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It remains in the balance as to whether there's a real drive towards shareholder value or not. The EPS is all over the place, which is understandable as many insiders might exercise options during high stock prices. The other side of it is that net income also has been surging. It remains to be seen what the EPS will do. Investors should note that ROKU has a&nbsp;dual-class voting structure, which dilutes shareholder voting rights over insider voting rights.</p><p><blockquote>是否有真正的股东价值驱动力仍悬而未决。每股收益无处不在，这是可以理解的，因为许多内部人士可能会在股价高企期间行使期权。另一方面，净利润也在飙升。EPS会做什么还有待观察。投资者应注意，ROKU拥有双层投票结构，这会稀释股东投票权而不是内部投票权。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Our Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> ROKU is a big gamble at the moment. The company is generating significant topline revenue, and cash flows are growing. If the company follows a similar acquisition strategy as big tech companies, the stock will thrive. If it uses its residual to little effect, the stock might plummet, especially considering the high price to sales and price to cash flow ratios. We're taking our chances nonetheless.</p><p><blockquote>ROKU目前是一场豪赌。该公司正在产生可观的营收，现金流也在增长。如果该公司遵循与大型科技公司类似的收购策略，该股将会蓬勃发展。如果它利用其剩余部分收效甚微，该股可能会暴跌，特别是考虑到较高的市销率和市销率与现金流比率。尽管如此，我们还是在冒险。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437490-roku-the-next-step\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ROKU":"Roku Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437490-roku-the-next-step","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129664890","content_text":"Summary\n\nROKU's stock is in the balance as it reports residual for the first time.\nThe stock price depends on whether it uses the capital to the value of shareholders.\nAstronomical gains in top-line growth and cash flow are witnesses. However, high P/S and P/CF are still a concern.\nWe're risking it by going long as the early signs of acquisitions have been encouraging.\nTread lightly with the risks involved.\n\nArturo Holmes/Getty Images Entertainment\nOverview\nFor those who aren't aware, Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) is the leading TV streaming platform in the United States, with an active user base of over 50 million. The company partners with TV brands which allows it to manufacture and sell its content via its platform.\nThe company operates through two segments namely platform and player.\nThe platform segment allows users to gain access to television and movies. The player segment offers streaming players, audio products, and accessories through the ROKU name. Further to the business is significant ad revenue as most tech companies have these days.\nROKU is still in its growth stage and has gained significant traction from investors since listing on the Nasdaq in 2017.\nFinancials \nTop-Line\nROKU reported 63.46% in year-over-year revenue growth the past year. The company has a 5-year average growth rate in revenue of 40.9%, which ranks in the 99th sector percentile. ROKU's core business is growing well, with 101% year-over-year growth in revenue due to an increase in platform usage of 4.5% in the past quarter. We think that ad revenue will add sustainability to the firm's revenue as competition rises through improved products from Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)streaming services. ROKU has entered into a strategic alliance with Nielsen to access their ad content. ROKU also completed asset acquisitions in the deal by acquiring Nielsen's AVA and DAI technologies to improve content recognition and ad insertion.\nWe think that added efficiency and synergies will improve the sustainability of the company's earnings.\nUser Growth\nSource: Statista\nROKU has undoubtedly expanded rapidly during the lockdown, and this is an anomaly that can't be denied. But something worth looking at is the company's gradual increase before the pandemic. We don't think that ROKU is a one-hit-wonder by any stretch of the imagination, and user growth looks set to continue growing.\nSource: GuruFocus\nTo consolidate the argument, we've pulled up the return on invested capital chart. The ROIC is a good indicator of a company's competitive stance within an industry. The recent growth in ROIC indicates that ROKU is still expanding well in itsindustry. We think that increased third-party distributors and increased investment in the ROKU channels contributed immensely to the uptick in ROIC. Furthermore, factors such as Disney+ and NBC Universal Peacock, HBO Max, and Discovery+ have and will stimulate further user growth.\nBottom-Line\n\nVery important to us are net income and normalized net income. The reasons are that the company finally turned a profit in Q-1 and now has residual to work with. The factor is unusual items. ROKU's normalized net income excludes unusual earnings, the fact that they're still reporting positive normalized net income is a big plus.\nMultiples\nSeeing that ROKU is now profitable, we can apply a few multiples for analysis. To start with, we looked at the price to sales. This metric can be used at any stage of the business cycle. ROKU is in a growth phase, and we think it's not easy to interpret the other multiples without looking at this one first.(The base data can be found on Seeking Alpha)\n\nMarket Cap/Annual Sales = 10.27\n\nConsidering that we'd like to see a price to sales ratio of between 1 and 2, ROKU is trading at a premium. It has to be considered that sales are growing at an average rate of above 40% annually.\nAnother ratio we can look at is the price to cash flow, which is a great metric to use as cash flow resembles the intrinsic value.\n\nShare price/Cash flow per share = $460/$1.72 = 267.44\n\nAgain, this is a high multiple, and we'd like to see a price to cash flow ratio of between 15-20. ROKU has seen an unlevered free cash flow growth worth 181.51% over the last year but only has a free cash flow yield of 0.3%.\nThe cash flows are still too volatile to forecast the intrinsic value and leading P/E ratio.\n\nAnalysts expect massive upside in EPS but we think that this is fantasy. The main reason is the fact that the company now holds residual. Let's explain why.\nUse Of Residual\nEssential to any stock's valuation is the asset base. Sure ROKU will probably trade at a premium to its asset base due to intellectual property and other intangible assets. However, the fundamental asset base growth is significant, and we think that their M&A strategy will ultimately determine the stock's fate.\nLet's look at acquisition strategies.\nTo start off with, we'll discuss the importance of data and asset acquisitions for tech companies. Data and asset acquisitions allow for organic growth to be amplified due to the synergies. Purchasing the 'ready-made' innovation is much more effective than innovating from scratch yourself.\nSecondly, let's discuss verticals. Vertical integration allows for acquisitions up and down the value chain. These acquisitions allow for cost-cutting through bargaining power and pricing leadership in the market. If ROKU goes this way, they'll add tremendous value to their asset base.\nNow for horizontals. If ROKU chooses to acquire horizontally for the purpose of gaining market share and reducing potential competitors, they'll end up paying premiums and ending up in many litigation fights. Not very good for shareholders.\nOther uses of capital.\nROKU could simply increase its headcount and continue developing internally. This is also not a very efficient way of going about adding shareholder value. It's unlikely that the company will pay dividends and engage in share buyback programs at this stage as it's still in a growth phase.\nThe early signs are that they're completing asset purchases.\nSource: Crunchbase\nOld House Ventures was acquired to add to its content and bring synergies to the table. Nielsen, as discussed, brings further expansion to the platform and is another lean asset acquisition. The Giraffic deal adds to their cloud space, this is another smart acquisition. Also adding to ad revenue is the acquisition of dataxu, another good acquisition in our opinion. And finally,Dynastrom was an acquisition that adds to ROKU's engineering team.\nIf ROKU continues acquiring in this manner, it will increase the cash value of its future growth opportunities, this is very good for shareholders.\nShareholder Value\nSource: GuruFocus\nIt remains in the balance as to whether there's a real drive towards shareholder value or not. The EPS is all over the place, which is understandable as many insiders might exercise options during high stock prices. The other side of it is that net income also has been surging. It remains to be seen what the EPS will do. Investors should note that ROKU has a dual-class voting structure, which dilutes shareholder voting rights over insider voting rights.\nOur Take\nROKU is a big gamble at the moment. The company is generating significant topline revenue, and cash flows are growing. If the company follows a similar acquisition strategy as big tech companies, the stock will thrive. If it uses its residual to little effect, the stock might plummet, especially considering the high price to sales and price to cash flow ratios. We're taking our chances nonetheless.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ROKU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153056818,"gmtCreate":1624989650734,"gmtModify":1633946123936,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool leh thiz","listText":"Cool leh thiz","text":"Cool leh thiz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153056818","repostId":"1174683579","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125082094,"gmtCreate":1624636890118,"gmtModify":1633950195142,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"5 sleeve trad 3 sleeve classic coffee&nbsp;","listText":"5 sleeve trad 3 sleeve classic coffee&nbsp;","text":"5 sleeve trad 3 sleeve classic coffee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125082094","repostId":"1165822342","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126825165,"gmtCreate":1624552050457,"gmtModify":1634004426140,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is cool stuff","listText":"This is cool stuff","text":"This is cool stuff","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126825165","repostId":"1198422658","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162376715,"gmtCreate":1624037455637,"gmtModify":1634023677147,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help me no t","listText":"Help me no t","text":"Help me no t","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162376715","repostId":"1141597711","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112027710,"gmtCreate":1622827655230,"gmtModify":1634097584323,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Liked and followed by&nbsp;","listText":"Liked and followed by&nbsp;","text":"Liked and followed by","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112027710","repostId":"1105681635","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105681635","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622800841,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105681635?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 18:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Top Robinhood Stocks Wall Street Thinks Will Soar 25% or More<blockquote>华尔街认为Robinhood 3只顶级股票将飙升25%或更多</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105681635","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Analysts expect one of them to skyrocket a lot more than 25%.","content":"<p>Robinhood investors like quite a few stocks that aren't exactly favorites for analysts. If memes are floating on the internet about a given stock, there's a pretty good chance that it's popular on Robinhood but not so much on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood投资者喜欢相当多不是分析师最喜欢的股票。如果互联网上流传着关于某只股票的模因，那么它很有可能在Robinhood上很受欢迎，但在华尔街就没那么受欢迎了。</blockquote></p><p> However, there are also several stocks that retail investors on the commission-free trading platform and analysts alike hold in high regard. Here are three top Robinhood stocks that Wall Street thinks will soar 25% or more.</p><p><blockquote>然而，也有几只股票受到免佣金交易平台上的散户投资者和分析师的高度重视。以下是华尔街认为将飙升25%或更多的三只顶级Robinhood股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0548d25733705cf21e71b0a7eaad8add\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果</b></blockquote></p><p> You might think that with a market cap topping $2 trillion, there's not much room for&nbsp;<b>Apple</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AAPL)&nbsp;to grow. Analysts would disagree. The average one-year price target for the technology leader reflects a premium of nearly 28% over the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>您可能会认为，市值超过2万亿美元，没有太多空间<b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）成长。分析师不会同意。这家科技领导者的平均一年目标价较当前股价溢价近28%。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is the second-most widely held stock among Robinhood investors. Why? Probably because they realize the incredible moat and growth prospects that Apple enjoys with its iPhone-centric ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是Robinhood投资者持有第二多的股票。为什么？可能是因为他们意识到苹果以iPhone为中心的生态系统所享有的令人难以置信的护城河和增长前景。</blockquote></p><p> I think this ecosystem could expand enough for Apple to hit Wall Street's price target. The increased availability of high-speed 5G wireless networks continues to fuel demand for the newer iPhone models. Apple's services and wearables revenue also continues to grow significantly.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这个生态系统可以扩展到足以让苹果达到华尔街的价格目标。高速5G无线网络可用性的提高继续推动对新款iPhone的需求。苹果的服务和可穿戴设备收入也继续大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Over the long run, my view is that technological innovations will keep Apple among the favorite stocks for both Robinhood investors and Wall Street analysts. Look for more augmented reality functionality on the way. There's also speculation that Apple could&nbsp;launch a foldable iPhone in 2023. A future market cap of $3 trillion or more isn't out of the question at all.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，我的观点是，技术创新将使苹果继续成为Robinhood投资者和华尔街分析师最喜欢的股票之一。寻找更多的增强现实功能。还有人猜测苹果可能会在2023年推出可折叠iPhone。未来市值达到3万亿美元或更多并非不可能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon.com</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> Robinhood investors and analysts also agree on another so-called&nbsp;FAANG stock--<b>Amazon.com</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AMZN). The internet giant ranks as the ninth most popular stock on Robinhood. Analysts think that Amazon's share price could rise 31% over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood投资者和分析师还就另一只所谓的FAANG股票达成了一致——<b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克：AMZN）。这家互联网巨头在Robinhood上排名第九。分析师认为，未来12个月亚马逊股价可能上涨31%。</blockquote></p><p> There are two key growth drivers that could enable Amazon to deliver that kind of growth. The company's Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud platform continues to fire on all cylinders and is highly profitable. Amazon is also experiencing strong momentum with its digital advertising business.</p><p><blockquote>有两个关键的增长动力可以使亚马逊实现这种增长。该公司的亚马逊网络服务（AWS）云平台继续全力以赴，利润丰厚。亚马逊的数字广告业务也表现强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Value investor Bill Miller even thinks that these two units&nbsp;could account for most of Amazon's valuation&nbsp;within the next couple of years. He's also bullish about the company's business-to-business and logistics platforms. I suspect Miller's optimism is on point.</p><p><blockquote>价值投资者比尔·米勒甚至认为，这两个部门可能会在未来几年内占亚马逊估值的大部分。他还看好该公司的企业对企业和物流平台。我怀疑米勒的乐观是有道理的。</blockquote></p><p> Don't forget e-commerce, though. Amazon remains the biggest e-commerce company in the world. Online sales still account for less than 14% of total retail sales in the U.S. There's a lot of room for Amazon to run in its core business.</p><p><blockquote>不过，不要忘记电子商务。亚马逊仍然是世界上最大的电子商务公司。在线销售额仍占美国零售总额的比例不到14%。亚马逊的核心业务还有很大的发展空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bionano Genomics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>生物纳米基因组学</b></blockquote></p><p> You might be at least a little surprised by the third top Robinhood stock on our list that Wall Street really likes. The average price target for&nbsp;<b>Bionano Genomics</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BNGO)&nbsp;is a whopping 80% higher than the stock's current price.</p><p><blockquote>您可能至少会对我们名单上华尔街真正喜欢的第三大罗宾汉股票感到有点惊讶。平均目标价<b>生物纳米基因组学</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：BNGO）比该股当前价格高出80%。</blockquote></p><p> Bionano&nbsp;reported better-than-expected Q1 results&nbsp;in May. Revenue jumped 179% year over year to a record-high $3.2 million. Although the company remained unprofitable, its bottom line moved in the right direction.</p><p><blockquote>Bionano 5月份公布的第一季度业绩好于预期。收入同比增长179%，达到创纪录的320万美元。尽管该公司仍未盈利，但其利润却朝着正确的方向发展。</blockquote></p><p> Customers appear to like Bionano's Saphyr genome mapping system. As the install base grows, the company's recurring revenue from consumables grows. That's the kind of business model that investors hope could really pay off over the long run.</p><p><blockquote>客户似乎喜欢Bionano的Saphyr基因组图谱系统。随着安装基础的增长，公司来自消耗品的经常性收入也在增长。这是投资者希望从长远来看能够真正获得回报的商业模式。</blockquote></p><p> Bionano projects that it will have 150 Saphyr systems in the field by the end of this year, up 50% from the end of 2020. The company also anticipates receiving accreditation for additional laboratory-developed tests for Saphyr soon. Bionano is riskier than Apple or Amazon, but analysts think it could be a huge winner over the near term.</p><p><blockquote>Bionano预计，到今年年底，该领域将拥有150个Saphyr系统，比2020年底增长50%。该公司还预计很快将获得Saphyr其他实验室开发测试的认证。Bionano的风险高于苹果或亚马逊，但分析师认为它可能是短期内的巨大赢家。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Top Robinhood Stocks Wall Street Thinks Will Soar 25% or More<blockquote>华尔街认为Robinhood 3只顶级股票将飙升25%或更多</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Top Robinhood Stocks Wall Street Thinks Will Soar 25% or More<blockquote>华尔街认为Robinhood 3只顶级股票将飙升25%或更多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 18:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Robinhood investors like quite a few stocks that aren't exactly favorites for analysts. If memes are floating on the internet about a given stock, there's a pretty good chance that it's popular on Robinhood but not so much on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood投资者喜欢相当多不是分析师最喜欢的股票。如果互联网上流传着关于某只股票的模因，那么它很有可能在Robinhood上很受欢迎，但在华尔街就没那么受欢迎了。</blockquote></p><p> However, there are also several stocks that retail investors on the commission-free trading platform and analysts alike hold in high regard. Here are three top Robinhood stocks that Wall Street thinks will soar 25% or more.</p><p><blockquote>然而，也有几只股票受到免佣金交易平台上的散户投资者和分析师的高度重视。以下是华尔街认为将飙升25%或更多的三只顶级Robinhood股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0548d25733705cf21e71b0a7eaad8add\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果</b></blockquote></p><p> You might think that with a market cap topping $2 trillion, there's not much room for&nbsp;<b>Apple</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AAPL)&nbsp;to grow. Analysts would disagree. The average one-year price target for the technology leader reflects a premium of nearly 28% over the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>您可能会认为，市值超过2万亿美元，没有太多空间<b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）成长。分析师不会同意。这家科技领导者的平均一年目标价较当前股价溢价近28%。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is the second-most widely held stock among Robinhood investors. Why? Probably because they realize the incredible moat and growth prospects that Apple enjoys with its iPhone-centric ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是Robinhood投资者持有第二多的股票。为什么？可能是因为他们意识到苹果以iPhone为中心的生态系统所享有的令人难以置信的护城河和增长前景。</blockquote></p><p> I think this ecosystem could expand enough for Apple to hit Wall Street's price target. The increased availability of high-speed 5G wireless networks continues to fuel demand for the newer iPhone models. Apple's services and wearables revenue also continues to grow significantly.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这个生态系统可以扩展到足以让苹果达到华尔街的价格目标。高速5G无线网络可用性的提高继续推动对新款iPhone的需求。苹果的服务和可穿戴设备收入也继续大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Over the long run, my view is that technological innovations will keep Apple among the favorite stocks for both Robinhood investors and Wall Street analysts. Look for more augmented reality functionality on the way. There's also speculation that Apple could&nbsp;launch a foldable iPhone in 2023. A future market cap of $3 trillion or more isn't out of the question at all.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，我的观点是，技术创新将使苹果继续成为Robinhood投资者和华尔街分析师最喜欢的股票之一。寻找更多的增强现实功能。还有人猜测苹果可能会在2023年推出可折叠iPhone。未来市值达到3万亿美元或更多并非不可能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon.com</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> Robinhood investors and analysts also agree on another so-called&nbsp;FAANG stock--<b>Amazon.com</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AMZN). The internet giant ranks as the ninth most popular stock on Robinhood. Analysts think that Amazon's share price could rise 31% over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood投资者和分析师还就另一只所谓的FAANG股票达成了一致——<b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克：AMZN）。这家互联网巨头在Robinhood上排名第九。分析师认为，未来12个月亚马逊股价可能上涨31%。</blockquote></p><p> There are two key growth drivers that could enable Amazon to deliver that kind of growth. The company's Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud platform continues to fire on all cylinders and is highly profitable. Amazon is also experiencing strong momentum with its digital advertising business.</p><p><blockquote>有两个关键的增长动力可以使亚马逊实现这种增长。该公司的亚马逊网络服务（AWS）云平台继续全力以赴，利润丰厚。亚马逊的数字广告业务也表现强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Value investor Bill Miller even thinks that these two units&nbsp;could account for most of Amazon's valuation&nbsp;within the next couple of years. He's also bullish about the company's business-to-business and logistics platforms. I suspect Miller's optimism is on point.</p><p><blockquote>价值投资者比尔·米勒甚至认为，这两个部门可能会在未来几年内占亚马逊估值的大部分。他还看好该公司的企业对企业和物流平台。我怀疑米勒的乐观是有道理的。</blockquote></p><p> Don't forget e-commerce, though. Amazon remains the biggest e-commerce company in the world. Online sales still account for less than 14% of total retail sales in the U.S. There's a lot of room for Amazon to run in its core business.</p><p><blockquote>不过，不要忘记电子商务。亚马逊仍然是世界上最大的电子商务公司。在线销售额仍占美国零售总额的比例不到14%。亚马逊的核心业务还有很大的发展空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bionano Genomics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>生物纳米基因组学</b></blockquote></p><p> You might be at least a little surprised by the third top Robinhood stock on our list that Wall Street really likes. The average price target for&nbsp;<b>Bionano Genomics</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BNGO)&nbsp;is a whopping 80% higher than the stock's current price.</p><p><blockquote>您可能至少会对我们名单上华尔街真正喜欢的第三大罗宾汉股票感到有点惊讶。平均目标价<b>生物纳米基因组学</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：BNGO）比该股当前价格高出80%。</blockquote></p><p> Bionano&nbsp;reported better-than-expected Q1 results&nbsp;in May. Revenue jumped 179% year over year to a record-high $3.2 million. Although the company remained unprofitable, its bottom line moved in the right direction.</p><p><blockquote>Bionano 5月份公布的第一季度业绩好于预期。收入同比增长179%，达到创纪录的320万美元。尽管该公司仍未盈利，但其利润却朝着正确的方向发展。</blockquote></p><p> Customers appear to like Bionano's Saphyr genome mapping system. As the install base grows, the company's recurring revenue from consumables grows. That's the kind of business model that investors hope could really pay off over the long run.</p><p><blockquote>客户似乎喜欢Bionano的Saphyr基因组图谱系统。随着安装基础的增长，公司来自消耗品的经常性收入也在增长。这是投资者希望从长远来看能够真正获得回报的商业模式。</blockquote></p><p> Bionano projects that it will have 150 Saphyr systems in the field by the end of this year, up 50% from the end of 2020. The company also anticipates receiving accreditation for additional laboratory-developed tests for Saphyr soon. Bionano is riskier than Apple or Amazon, but analysts think it could be a huge winner over the near term.</p><p><blockquote>Bionano预计，到今年年底，该领域将拥有150个Saphyr系统，比2020年底增长50%。该公司还预计很快将获得Saphyr其他实验室开发测试的认证。Bionano的风险高于苹果或亚马逊，但分析师认为它可能是短期内的巨大赢家。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/04/3-top-robinhood-stocks-wall-street-thinks-will-soa/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNGO":"Bionano Genomics","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/04/3-top-robinhood-stocks-wall-street-thinks-will-soa/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105681635","content_text":"Robinhood investors like quite a few stocks that aren't exactly favorites for analysts. If memes are floating on the internet about a given stock, there's a pretty good chance that it's popular on Robinhood but not so much on Wall Street.\nHowever, there are also several stocks that retail investors on the commission-free trading platform and analysts alike hold in high regard. Here are three top Robinhood stocks that Wall Street thinks will soar 25% or more.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nApple\nYou might think that with a market cap topping $2 trillion, there's not much room for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) to grow. Analysts would disagree. The average one-year price target for the technology leader reflects a premium of nearly 28% over the current share price.\nApple is the second-most widely held stock among Robinhood investors. Why? Probably because they realize the incredible moat and growth prospects that Apple enjoys with its iPhone-centric ecosystem.\nI think this ecosystem could expand enough for Apple to hit Wall Street's price target. The increased availability of high-speed 5G wireless networks continues to fuel demand for the newer iPhone models. Apple's services and wearables revenue also continues to grow significantly.\nOver the long run, my view is that technological innovations will keep Apple among the favorite stocks for both Robinhood investors and Wall Street analysts. Look for more augmented reality functionality on the way. There's also speculation that Apple could launch a foldable iPhone in 2023. A future market cap of $3 trillion or more isn't out of the question at all.\nAmazon.com\nRobinhood investors and analysts also agree on another so-called FAANG stock--Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN). The internet giant ranks as the ninth most popular stock on Robinhood. Analysts think that Amazon's share price could rise 31% over the next 12 months.\nThere are two key growth drivers that could enable Amazon to deliver that kind of growth. The company's Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud platform continues to fire on all cylinders and is highly profitable. Amazon is also experiencing strong momentum with its digital advertising business.\nValue investor Bill Miller even thinks that these two units could account for most of Amazon's valuation within the next couple of years. He's also bullish about the company's business-to-business and logistics platforms. I suspect Miller's optimism is on point.\nDon't forget e-commerce, though. Amazon remains the biggest e-commerce company in the world. Online sales still account for less than 14% of total retail sales in the U.S. There's a lot of room for Amazon to run in its core business.\nBionano Genomics\nYou might be at least a little surprised by the third top Robinhood stock on our list that Wall Street really likes. The average price target for Bionano Genomics (NASDAQ:BNGO) is a whopping 80% higher than the stock's current price.\nBionano reported better-than-expected Q1 results in May. Revenue jumped 179% year over year to a record-high $3.2 million. Although the company remained unprofitable, its bottom line moved in the right direction.\nCustomers appear to like Bionano's Saphyr genome mapping system. As the install base grows, the company's recurring revenue from consumables grows. That's the kind of business model that investors hope could really pay off over the long run.\nBionano projects that it will have 150 Saphyr systems in the field by the end of this year, up 50% from the end of 2020. The company also anticipates receiving accreditation for additional laboratory-developed tests for Saphyr soon. Bionano is riskier than Apple or Amazon, but analysts think it could be a huge winner over the near term.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BNGO":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147255267,"gmtCreate":1626360796459,"gmtModify":1631890333763,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello hi","listText":"Hello hi","text":"Hello hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147255267","repostId":"1176592870","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187652163,"gmtCreate":1623753195752,"gmtModify":1634029021508,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is good news","listText":"This is good news","text":"This is good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187652163","repostId":"1193778475","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":842997500,"gmtCreate":1636123897144,"gmtModify":1636123897268,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>ok","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ok","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b0bbb3fbb5b29471f4bfddff3182785","width":"1080","height":"2068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842997500","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":178977158,"gmtCreate":1626786431474,"gmtModify":1631890333738,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178977158","repostId":"1144099744","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144099744","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1626784245,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144099744?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla, Local Rivals Nio, Xpeng, Li Growing Together, Not Cutting Each Other's Market Share, Say Analysts<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉、本土竞争对手蔚来、小鹏汽车、理想汽车共同成长，不会削减彼此的市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144099744","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Tesla Inc and local electric vehicle rivals such asNio Inc are growing the electric vehicle segment together in China and not eating into each other's market share, Zhongtai Securities analysts said, asreported by cnEVpost.What Happened:Chinese electric vehicle makers such as Nio,Xpeng Inc,Li Auto Inc andBYD Co along with Teslareported robust delivery numbersin June.Tesla has stepped up the competition in Chinaafter introducinga lower-priced Model Y variant. The strategy has paid off as the Elon","content":"<p><b>Tesla Inc</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) and local electric vehicle rivals such as<b>Nio Inc</b>(NYSE:NIO) are growing the electric vehicle segment together&nbsp;in China and not eating into each other's market share, Zhongtai Securities analysts said, asreported&nbsp;by cnEVpost.</p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉公司</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）和当地电动汽车竞争对手，如<b>蔚来公司</b>据cnEVpost报道，中泰证券分析师表示，（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）正在共同发展中国的电动汽车市场，而不是蚕食彼此的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>Chinese electric vehicle makers such as Nio,<b>Xpeng Inc</b>(NYSE:XPEV),<b>Li Auto Inc</b>(NASDAQ:LI) and<b>BYD Co</b>(OTC:BYDDY) along with Teslareported robust delivery numbersin June.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>蔚来等中国电动汽车制造商，<b>小鹏汽车</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV），<b>理想汽车公司</b>（纳斯达克：LI）及<b>比亚迪公司</b>（场外交易代码：BYDDY）以及特斯拉报告的6月份交付量强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has stepped up the competition in Chinaafter introducinga lower-priced Model Y variant. The strategy has paid off as the Elon Musk-led company has reportedly secured a flood of orders but raised fears of doom and gloom for China's new carmakers.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在推出价格较低的Model Y车型后，加剧了在中国的竞争。这一战略得到了回报，据报道，埃隆·马斯克领导的公司获得了大量订单，但引发了人们对中国新汽车制造商厄运和悲观的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Zhongtai Securities analyst sees the move as overblown as China's new carmakers are competing differently both in terms of demand and pricing.</p><p><blockquote>中泰证券分析师认为此举被夸大了，因为中国新造车企业在需求和定价方面的竞争都有所不同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Matters:</b>Tesla has introduced a more affordable variant of electric mid-size SUV Model Y in China, which qualifies for a subsidy as well as it is sold under RMB 300,000 ($46,000), the benchmark. Deliveries are expected to begin in August.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么重要：</b>特斯拉在中国推出了一款更实惠的电动中型SUV Model Y，该车有资格获得补贴，基准售价低于30万元人民币（4.6万美元）。预计将于8月开始交付。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/955b414508f48ef07615be308fe8be84\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"485\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Tesla’s biggest rival Nio at the moment operates a portfolio that is more expensive and not eligible for the subsidies as they are all priced over the RMB 300,000 limit.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉最大的竞争对手蔚来目前运营的投资组合价格更高，并且没有资格获得补贴，因为它们的定价都超过了30万元人民币的限额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford Motor Co</b>(NYSE:F) too hasadded another variantof its all-electric sports utility vehicle Mustang Mach-E in China for under RMB 300,000 ($46,000), thus qualifying it for state-led subsidies.</p><p><blockquote><b>福特汽车公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）也在中国推出了另一款全电动运动型多功能车野马Mach-E，售价低于30万元人民币（4.6万美元），从而有资格获得国家主导的补贴。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action:</b>Tesla shares closed 0.31% higher at $646.22 on Monday. Nio closed 1.29% higher at $43.35.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势：</b>特斯拉股价周一收盘上涨0.31%，至646.22美元。蔚来收涨1.29%，报43.35美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla, Local Rivals Nio, Xpeng, Li Growing Together, Not Cutting Each Other's Market Share, Say Analysts<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉、本土竞争对手蔚来、小鹏汽车、理想汽车共同成长，不会削减彼此的市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla, Local Rivals Nio, Xpeng, Li Growing Together, Not Cutting Each Other's Market Share, Say Analysts<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉、本土竞争对手蔚来、小鹏汽车、理想汽车共同成长，不会削减彼此的市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-20 20:30</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Tesla Inc</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) and local electric vehicle rivals such as<b>Nio Inc</b>(NYSE:NIO) are growing the electric vehicle segment together&nbsp;in China and not eating into each other's market share, Zhongtai Securities analysts said, asreported&nbsp;by cnEVpost.</p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉公司</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）和当地电动汽车竞争对手，如<b>蔚来公司</b>据cnEVpost报道，中泰证券分析师表示，（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）正在共同发展中国的电动汽车市场，而不是蚕食彼此的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>Chinese electric vehicle makers such as Nio,<b>Xpeng Inc</b>(NYSE:XPEV),<b>Li Auto Inc</b>(NASDAQ:LI) and<b>BYD Co</b>(OTC:BYDDY) along with Teslareported robust delivery numbersin June.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>蔚来等中国电动汽车制造商，<b>小鹏汽车</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV），<b>理想汽车公司</b>（纳斯达克：LI）及<b>比亚迪公司</b>（场外交易代码：BYDDY）以及特斯拉报告的6月份交付量强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has stepped up the competition in Chinaafter introducinga lower-priced Model Y variant. The strategy has paid off as the Elon Musk-led company has reportedly secured a flood of orders but raised fears of doom and gloom for China's new carmakers.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在推出价格较低的Model Y车型后，加剧了在中国的竞争。这一战略得到了回报，据报道，埃隆·马斯克领导的公司获得了大量订单，但引发了人们对中国新汽车制造商厄运和悲观的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Zhongtai Securities analyst sees the move as overblown as China's new carmakers are competing differently both in terms of demand and pricing.</p><p><blockquote>中泰证券分析师认为此举被夸大了，因为中国新造车企业在需求和定价方面的竞争都有所不同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Matters:</b>Tesla has introduced a more affordable variant of electric mid-size SUV Model Y in China, which qualifies for a subsidy as well as it is sold under RMB 300,000 ($46,000), the benchmark. Deliveries are expected to begin in August.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么重要：</b>特斯拉在中国推出了一款更实惠的电动中型SUV Model Y，该车有资格获得补贴，基准售价低于30万元人民币（4.6万美元）。预计将于8月开始交付。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/955b414508f48ef07615be308fe8be84\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"485\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Tesla’s biggest rival Nio at the moment operates a portfolio that is more expensive and not eligible for the subsidies as they are all priced over the RMB 300,000 limit.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉最大的竞争对手蔚来目前运营的投资组合价格更高，并且没有资格获得补贴，因为它们的定价都超过了30万元人民币的限额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford Motor Co</b>(NYSE:F) too hasadded another variantof its all-electric sports utility vehicle Mustang Mach-E in China for under RMB 300,000 ($46,000), thus qualifying it for state-led subsidies.</p><p><blockquote><b>福特汽车公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）也在中国推出了另一款全电动运动型多功能车野马Mach-E，售价低于30万元人民币（4.6万美元），从而有资格获得国家主导的补贴。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action:</b>Tesla shares closed 0.31% higher at $646.22 on Monday. Nio closed 1.29% higher at $43.35.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势：</b>特斯拉股价周一收盘上涨0.31%，至646.22美元。蔚来收涨1.29%，报43.35美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144099744","content_text":"Tesla Inc(NASDAQ:TSLA) and local electric vehicle rivals such asNio Inc(NYSE:NIO) are growing the electric vehicle segment together in China and not eating into each other's market share, Zhongtai Securities analysts said, asreported by cnEVpost.\nWhat Happened:Chinese electric vehicle makers such as Nio,Xpeng Inc(NYSE:XPEV),Li Auto Inc(NASDAQ:LI) andBYD Co(OTC:BYDDY) along with Teslareported robust delivery numbersin June.\nTesla has stepped up the competition in Chinaafter introducinga lower-priced Model Y variant. The strategy has paid off as the Elon Musk-led company has reportedly secured a flood of orders but raised fears of doom and gloom for China's new carmakers.\nZhongtai Securities analyst sees the move as overblown as China's new carmakers are competing differently both in terms of demand and pricing.\nWhy It Matters:Tesla has introduced a more affordable variant of electric mid-size SUV Model Y in China, which qualifies for a subsidy as well as it is sold under RMB 300,000 ($46,000), the benchmark. Deliveries are expected to begin in August.\nTesla’s biggest rival Nio at the moment operates a portfolio that is more expensive and not eligible for the subsidies as they are all priced over the RMB 300,000 limit.\nFord Motor Co(NYSE:F) too hasadded another variantof its all-electric sports utility vehicle Mustang Mach-E in China for under RMB 300,000 ($46,000), thus qualifying it for state-led subsidies.\nPrice Action:Tesla shares closed 0.31% higher at $646.22 on Monday. Nio closed 1.29% higher at $43.35.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1963,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153739346,"gmtCreate":1625048821185,"gmtModify":1631890333850,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello this is so fun","listText":"Hello this is so fun","text":"Hello this is so fun","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153739346","repostId":"1163947029","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124652675,"gmtCreate":1624763752397,"gmtModify":1633948913612,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is, cool stuffs","listText":"This is, cool stuffs","text":"This is, cool stuffs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124652675","repostId":"2146090006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165872454,"gmtCreate":1624120490078,"gmtModify":1634010518709,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Booooo this is bad","listText":"Booooo this is bad","text":"Booooo this is bad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165872454","repostId":"1119296361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119296361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624028454,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119296361?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119296361","media":"Barrons","summary":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier","content":"<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储发布6月份货币政策声明时，银行股上涨，该声明指出加息时间早于预期。周四，他们是市场最大的输家之一。</blockquote></p><p> There’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.</p><p><blockquote>这是有充分理由的。银行通常通过短期借钱和长期借钱来赚钱，并从利差中获利。当长期利率上升速度快于短期利率时，银行利润率通常会提高，而当情况相反时，利润会恶化。</blockquote></p><p> After Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&amp;P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%</p><p><blockquote>周三会议结束后，10年期国债收益率大幅反弹，上涨0.071%至1.569%，而两年期国债收益率上涨0.038个百分点至0.203%，两者利差达到1.366个百分点。这种扩大使得金融业，尤其是银行股成为少数几个对美联储周三的声明做出积极反应的行业之一。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE)上涨0.9%，摩根大通(JPM)上涨0.7%，尽管标准普尔500指数下跌0.5%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.8%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.2%</blockquote></p><p> The market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&amp;P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经改变了主意。10年期国债收益率跌至1.498%，两年期国债收益率升至0.238%，差距为1.26个百分点。对于银行等利率敏感行业来说，所谓的收益率曲线变平是个坏消息。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF周四下跌4.5%，周五盘前交易下跌1%。摩根大通周四下跌2.9%，周五下跌约1%。周五标普500期货下跌0.6%，道指期货下跌0.8%。纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Why the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.</p><p><blockquote>市场为何大转变？为了让收益率继续上升，经济需要表明它正在迅速复苏。否则，投资者将押注美国在2008年金融危机后经历的缓慢增长。Evercore ISI策略师丹尼斯·德布斯切尔(Dennis DeBusschere)表示，由于周四初请失业金人数大幅下降，并在六周下降后首次上升，市场决定关注后者，而不是前者。他写道：“相对于所有人之前的想法，经济前景面临的风险是急剧转向鹰派，同时劳动力市场并不像美联储假设的那么强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> Until that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况改变之前，银行股将很难反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 23:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储发布6月份货币政策声明时，银行股上涨，该声明指出加息时间早于预期。周四，他们是市场最大的输家之一。</blockquote></p><p> There’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.</p><p><blockquote>这是有充分理由的。银行通常通过短期借钱和长期借钱来赚钱，并从利差中获利。当长期利率上升速度快于短期利率时，银行利润率通常会提高，而当情况相反时，利润会恶化。</blockquote></p><p> After Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&amp;P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%</p><p><blockquote>周三会议结束后，10年期国债收益率大幅反弹，上涨0.071%至1.569%，而两年期国债收益率上涨0.038个百分点至0.203%，两者利差达到1.366个百分点。这种扩大使得金融业，尤其是银行股成为少数几个对美联储周三的声明做出积极反应的行业之一。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE)上涨0.9%，摩根大通(JPM)上涨0.7%，尽管标准普尔500指数下跌0.5%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.8%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.2%</blockquote></p><p> The market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&amp;P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经改变了主意。10年期国债收益率跌至1.498%，两年期国债收益率升至0.238%，差距为1.26个百分点。对于银行等利率敏感行业来说，所谓的收益率曲线变平是个坏消息。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF周四下跌4.5%，周五盘前交易下跌1%。摩根大通周四下跌2.9%，周五下跌约1%。周五标普500期货下跌0.6%，道指期货下跌0.8%。纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Why the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.</p><p><blockquote>市场为何大转变？为了让收益率继续上升，经济需要表明它正在迅速复苏。否则，投资者将押注美国在2008年金融危机后经历的缓慢增长。Evercore ISI策略师丹尼斯·德布斯切尔(Dennis DeBusschere)表示，由于周四初请失业金人数大幅下降，并在六周下降后首次上升，市场决定关注后者，而不是前者。他写道：“相对于所有人之前的想法，经济前景面临的风险是急剧转向鹰派，同时劳动力市场并不像美联储假设的那么强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> Until that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况改变之前，银行股将很难反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利","BAC":"美国银行","WFC":"富国银行","JPM":"摩根大通","GS":"高盛","C":"花旗"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119296361","content_text":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.\nThere’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.\nAfter Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%\nThe market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.\nWhy the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.\nUntil that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"C":0.9,"GS":0.9,"WFC":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"MS":0.9,"BAC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162324846,"gmtCreate":1624035731885,"gmtModify":1634023699452,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow this, is good","listText":"Wow this, is good","text":"Wow this, is good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162324846","repostId":"1175119628","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168954103,"gmtCreate":1623947789502,"gmtModify":1634025371725,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool stuff","listText":"Cool stuff","text":"Cool stuff","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168954103","repostId":"2144742686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169762709,"gmtCreate":1623851367601,"gmtModify":1634027092840,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool stuffs","listText":"Cool stuffs","text":"Cool stuffs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169762709","repostId":"1138545791","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138545791","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623850706,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138545791?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 21:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"General Motors shares surges more than 3% in moring trading<blockquote>通用汽车股价早盘飙升逾3%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138545791","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"General Motors shares surges more than 3% in moring trading.\nGeneral Motors said on Wednesday it wil","content":"<p>General Motors&nbsp;shares&nbsp;surges&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;3%&nbsp;in&nbsp;moring&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车股价在早盘交易中飙升超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c4e8e4eca776efaebd98402c5b199b\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">General Motors&nbsp;said on Wednesday it will increase spending on electric and autonomous vehicles to $35 billion through 2025, a 30% increase from plans announced late last year. It also said it is raising its earnings guidance for the first half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车周三表示，到2025年，将把电动和自动驾驶汽车的支出增加到350亿美元，比去年年底宣布的计划增加30%。该公司还表示，将上调今年上半年的盈利指引。</blockquote></p><p> The additional money will be used to&nbsp;expand its rollout of EVs and accelerate production of its battery and fuel cell technologies, including two new U.S. battery plants in addition to two that are currently under construction.</p><p><blockquote>额外的资金将用于扩大其电动汽车的推出并加速其电池和燃料电池技术的生产，除了目前正在建设的两家电池工厂之外，还包括两家新的美国电池工厂。</blockquote></p><p> America's largest automaker is racing to catch up to EV leaderTeslaand compete for a leadership position against other well-established automakers such asVolkswagen. GM plans to sell more than 1 million EVs annually by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>美国最大的汽车制造商正在竞相追赶电动汽车领导者特斯拉，并与大众汽车等其他知名汽车制造商争夺领导地位。通用汽车计划到2025年每年销售超过100万辆电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are investing aggressively in a comprehensive and highly-integrated plan to make sure that GM leads in all aspects of the transformation to a more sustainable future,\" GM CEOMary Barrasaid in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车首席执行官玛丽·巴拉在一份声明中表示：“我们正在积极投资一项全面且高度整合的计划，以确保通用汽车在向更可持续未来转型的各个方面处于领先地位。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>General Motors shares surges more than 3% in moring trading<blockquote>通用汽车股价早盘飙升逾3%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGeneral Motors shares surges more than 3% in moring trading<blockquote>通用汽车股价早盘飙升逾3%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-16 21:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>General Motors&nbsp;shares&nbsp;surges&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;3%&nbsp;in&nbsp;moring&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车股价在早盘交易中飙升超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c4e8e4eca776efaebd98402c5b199b\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">General Motors&nbsp;said on Wednesday it will increase spending on electric and autonomous vehicles to $35 billion through 2025, a 30% increase from plans announced late last year. It also said it is raising its earnings guidance for the first half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车周三表示，到2025年，将把电动和自动驾驶汽车的支出增加到350亿美元，比去年年底宣布的计划增加30%。该公司还表示，将上调今年上半年的盈利指引。</blockquote></p><p> The additional money will be used to&nbsp;expand its rollout of EVs and accelerate production of its battery and fuel cell technologies, including two new U.S. battery plants in addition to two that are currently under construction.</p><p><blockquote>额外的资金将用于扩大其电动汽车的推出并加速其电池和燃料电池技术的生产，除了目前正在建设的两家电池工厂之外，还包括两家新的美国电池工厂。</blockquote></p><p> America's largest automaker is racing to catch up to EV leaderTeslaand compete for a leadership position against other well-established automakers such asVolkswagen. GM plans to sell more than 1 million EVs annually by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>美国最大的汽车制造商正在竞相追赶电动汽车领导者特斯拉，并与大众汽车等其他知名汽车制造商争夺领导地位。通用汽车计划到2025年每年销售超过100万辆电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are investing aggressively in a comprehensive and highly-integrated plan to make sure that GM leads in all aspects of the transformation to a more sustainable future,\" GM CEOMary Barrasaid in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车首席执行官玛丽·巴拉在一份声明中表示：“我们正在积极投资一项全面且高度整合的计划，以确保通用汽车在向更可持续未来转型的各个方面处于领先地位。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138545791","content_text":"General Motors shares surges more than 3% in moring trading.\nGeneral Motors said on Wednesday it will increase spending on electric and autonomous vehicles to $35 billion through 2025, a 30% increase from plans announced late last year. It also said it is raising its earnings guidance for the first half of the year.\nThe additional money will be used to expand its rollout of EVs and accelerate production of its battery and fuel cell technologies, including two new U.S. battery plants in addition to two that are currently under construction.\nAmerica's largest automaker is racing to catch up to EV leaderTeslaand compete for a leadership position against other well-established automakers such asVolkswagen. GM plans to sell more than 1 million EVs annually by 2025.\n\"We are investing aggressively in a comprehensive and highly-integrated plan to make sure that GM leads in all aspects of the transformation to a more sustainable future,\" GM CEOMary Barrasaid in a statement.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194137532,"gmtCreate":1621347273526,"gmtModify":1634192253195,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is so true and acccurate","listText":"This is so true and acccurate","text":"This is so true and acccurate","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194137532","repostId":"2136738931","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2136738931","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621318800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2136738931?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-18 14:20","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"JD Logistics launches Hong Kong IPO to raise up to US$3.4 billion<blockquote>京东物流启动香港IPO募资至多34亿美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2136738931","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The logistics arm of Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com started marketing its Hong Kong initial public offering  to retail investors on Monday at a price range of HK$39.36 to HK$43.36 per share, which could see the firm raise as much as HK$26.4 billion  if the deal is priced at the top end.JD Logistics' public offering will run from Monday to Friday. Its shares are expected to begin trading on the Hong Kong bourse's main board on May 28.JD Logistics' offering is expected to be the second multibilli","content":"<p>The logistics arm of Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com started marketing its Hong Kong initial public offering (IPO) to retail investors on Monday at a price range of HK$39.36 to HK$43.36 per share, which could see the firm raise as much as HK$26.4 billion (US$3.4 billion) if the deal is priced at the top end.<a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/mi/ipo?feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>（Click here To apply for the JD Logistics Shares）</b></a><b></b></p><p><blockquote>中国电子商务巨头京东的物流部门周一开始向散户投资者推销其在香港的首次公开募股（IPO），价格范围为每股39.36港元至43.36港元，如果交易定价在最高端，该公司可能会筹集高达264亿港元（34亿美元）。<a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/mi/ipo?feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>（点击此处申请京东物流股份）</b></a><b></b></blockquote></p><p>JD Logistics' public offering will run from Monday to Friday. Its shares are expected to begin trading on the Hong Kong bourse's main board on May 28.</p><p><blockquote>京东物流的公开发行将从周一持续到周五。其股票预计将于5月28日在香港交易所主板开始交易。</blockquote></p><p>JD Logistics plans to sell 609.2 million shares, representing 10 per cent of its enlarged share capital. There is an over-allotment option to sell up to 91.4 million more shares if there is a strong demand.</p><p><blockquote>京东物流计划出售6.092亿股股票，占其扩大后股本的10%。如果需求强劲，则有超额配股权可再出售最多9140万股。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd9320033ea7302952fa2cb6ece8339a\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"464\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Your application must be for a minimum of 100 Hong Kong Offer Shares and in one of the numbers set out in the table. You are required to pay the amount next to the number you select.</p><p><blockquote>阁下的申请必须认购最少100股香港发售股份，并按下表所列其中一个数目认购。您需要支付您选择的号码旁边的金额。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f72efeb4b54a02dbfe728ebb1099dd\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"437\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>JD Logistics' offering is expected to be the second multibillion-dollar IPO on the Hong Kong bourse this year, after Tencent-backed short video platform Kuaishou Technology raised US$6.2 billion in January. The Kuaishou offering was the biggest IPO globally so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>京东物流的发行预计将是今年港交所第二笔数十亿美元的IPO，此前腾讯控股支持的短视频平台快手科技在1月份筹集了62亿美元。快手的发行是今年迄今为止全球最大的IPO。</blockquote></p><p>Eight cornerstone investors have committed to buy a total of US$1.5 billion worth of JD Logistics shares, which would account for about 39 per cent of its global offering if the deal is priced at the top end.</p><p><blockquote>八名基石投资者已承诺购买总价值15亿美元的京东物流股票，如果交易定价为最高端，这将占其全球发行的约39%。</blockquote></p><p>The investors include Softbank, Singapore sovereign wealth fund Temasek Holdings, China Structural Reform Fund and asset managers such as Blackstone, Tiger Global Management and others.</p><p><blockquote>投资者包括软银、新加坡主权财富基金淡马锡控股、中国结构性改革基金以及黑石、老虎环球管理等资产管理公司。</blockquote></p><p>BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs and Haitong International are acting as joint sponsors on the transaction, while UBS is serving as a financial adviser.</p><p><blockquote>美银证券、高盛和海通国际担任此次交易的联席保荐人，瑞银则担任财务顾问。</blockquote></p><p>Assuming the deal is priced at the top end, JD Logistics' market capitalisation would be HK$264.1 billion, valuing it higher than ZTO Express.</p><p><blockquote>假设该交易定价为最高端，京东物流的市值将为2641亿港元，估值高于中通快递。</blockquote></p><p>Shanghai-based ZTO, which counts Alibaba Group Holding as one of its shareholders, had a market capitalisation of HK$180.7 billion when it listed in Hong Kong through a secondary listing last September. Alibaba owns the South China Morning Post.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于上海的中通去年9月通过二次上市在港上市时，市值为1807亿港元，阿里巴巴-SW集团是其股东之一。阿里巴巴-SW拥有《南华早报》。</blockquote></p><p>Investors will be keen to learn more about JD Logistics' plan to churn out a profit. The Beijing-based firm said in its prospectus that it expects a bigger net loss for this year, after racking up losses of 2.8 billion yuan (US$435 million) in 2018, 2.2 billion yuan in 2019 and 4 billion yuan in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将渴望了解更多有关京东物流盈利计划的信息。这家总部位于北京的公司在招股说明书中表示，预计今年的净亏损将更大，此前2018年亏损28亿元人民币（4.35亿美元），2019年亏损22亿元人民币，2020年亏损40亿元人民币。</blockquote></p><p>\"As we currently prioritise growth of our business and expansion of our market share over profitability, there can be significant fluctuations in our profitability profile in the near-to-medium term,\" the company said in its draft prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在招股说明书草案中表示：“由于我们目前将业务增长和市场份额扩大置于盈利能力之上，因此我们的盈利状况在中短期内可能会出现重大波动。”</blockquote></p><p>JD Logistics is seeking to differentiate itself from other players, such as ZTO and Yunda Holding, by touting itself as a technology-driven logistic services provider using autonomous mobile robots, sorting robots and self-driving vehicles to enhance delivery speed and accuracy.</p><p><blockquote>京东物流正在寻求与中通和韵达控股等其他参与者区分开来，将自己标榜为一家技术驱动的物流服务提供商，使用自主移动机器人、分拣机器人和自动驾驶汽车来提高配送速度和准确性。</blockquote></p><p>Pitching the stock sale with a tech angle could help JD Logistics paint a more positive outlook. This is because competition is particularly keen in the express delivery sector, with reports of some newer players offering services at below cost to grab business.</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度推销股票销售可以帮助京东物流描绘更积极的前景。这是因为快递行业的竞争尤其激烈，有报道称一些新参与者以低于成本的价格提供服务来抢占业务。</blockquote></p><p>Over the past three years, the average revenue per parcel for express delivery companies declined by 50 per cent to 60 per cent owing to intensive market competition, according to Charlie Chen, an analyst at China Renaissance.</p><p><blockquote>华兴资本分析师查理·陈(Charlie Chen)表示，过去三年，由于市场竞争激烈，快递公司每个包裹的平均收入下降了50%至60%。</blockquote></p><p>SF Express, China's top delivery service provider, shocked the market this month after it forecast a first-quarter loss of 1.1 billion yuan, triggering a sell-off of its stock. As of Friday's close, its share price in Shanghai was almost halved from its mid-February peak.</p><p><blockquote>中国最大的快递服务提供商顺丰本月震惊市场，此前该公司预测第一季度亏损11亿元人民币，引发了对其股票的抛售。截至周五收盘，其在上海的股价较2月中旬的峰值几乎腰斩。</blockquote></p><p>Five players - ZTO, YTO Express, STO Express, SF Express and Yunda Holding - account for nearly 80 per cent of China's express delivery service market.</p><p><blockquote>中通、圆通快递、申通快递、顺丰快递和韵达控股这五家公司占据了中国快递服务市场近80%的份额。</blockquote></p><p>China is the biggest logistics market in the world in terms of spending, with total logistics spending reaching 14.9 trillion yuan in 2020. That is expected to increase to 19.3 trillion yuan by 2025, according to data from research firm China Insights Consultancy cited in JD Logistics' prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>就支出而言，中国是全球最大的物流市场，2020年物流总支出达到14.9万亿元。京东物流招股说明书中引用的研究公司灼识咨询的数据显示，预计到2025年，这一数字将增至19.3万亿元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JD Logistics launches Hong Kong IPO to raise up to US$3.4 billion<blockquote>京东物流启动香港IPO募资至多34亿美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJD Logistics launches Hong Kong IPO to raise up to US$3.4 billion<blockquote>京东物流启动香港IPO募资至多34亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-18 14:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The logistics arm of Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com started marketing its Hong Kong initial public offering (IPO) to retail investors on Monday at a price range of HK$39.36 to HK$43.36 per share, which could see the firm raise as much as HK$26.4 billion (US$3.4 billion) if the deal is priced at the top end.<a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/mi/ipo?feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>（Click here To apply for the JD Logistics Shares）</b></a><b></b></p><p><blockquote>中国电子商务巨头京东的物流部门周一开始向散户投资者推销其在香港的首次公开募股（IPO），价格范围为每股39.36港元至43.36港元，如果交易定价在最高端，该公司可能会筹集高达264亿港元（34亿美元）。<a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/mi/ipo?feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>（点击此处申请京东物流股份）</b></a><b></b></blockquote></p><p>JD Logistics' public offering will run from Monday to Friday. Its shares are expected to begin trading on the Hong Kong bourse's main board on May 28.</p><p><blockquote>京东物流的公开发行将从周一持续到周五。其股票预计将于5月28日在香港交易所主板开始交易。</blockquote></p><p>JD Logistics plans to sell 609.2 million shares, representing 10 per cent of its enlarged share capital. There is an over-allotment option to sell up to 91.4 million more shares if there is a strong demand.</p><p><blockquote>京东物流计划出售6.092亿股股票，占其扩大后股本的10%。如果需求强劲，则有超额配股权可再出售最多9140万股。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd9320033ea7302952fa2cb6ece8339a\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"464\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Your application must be for a minimum of 100 Hong Kong Offer Shares and in one of the numbers set out in the table. You are required to pay the amount next to the number you select.</p><p><blockquote>阁下的申请必须认购最少100股香港发售股份，并按下表所列其中一个数目认购。您需要支付您选择的号码旁边的金额。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f72efeb4b54a02dbfe728ebb1099dd\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"437\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>JD Logistics' offering is expected to be the second multibillion-dollar IPO on the Hong Kong bourse this year, after Tencent-backed short video platform Kuaishou Technology raised US$6.2 billion in January. The Kuaishou offering was the biggest IPO globally so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>京东物流的发行预计将是今年港交所第二笔数十亿美元的IPO，此前腾讯控股支持的短视频平台快手科技在1月份筹集了62亿美元。快手的发行是今年迄今为止全球最大的IPO。</blockquote></p><p>Eight cornerstone investors have committed to buy a total of US$1.5 billion worth of JD Logistics shares, which would account for about 39 per cent of its global offering if the deal is priced at the top end.</p><p><blockquote>八名基石投资者已承诺购买总价值15亿美元的京东物流股票，如果交易定价为最高端，这将占其全球发行的约39%。</blockquote></p><p>The investors include Softbank, Singapore sovereign wealth fund Temasek Holdings, China Structural Reform Fund and asset managers such as Blackstone, Tiger Global Management and others.</p><p><blockquote>投资者包括软银、新加坡主权财富基金淡马锡控股、中国结构性改革基金以及黑石、老虎环球管理等资产管理公司。</blockquote></p><p>BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs and Haitong International are acting as joint sponsors on the transaction, while UBS is serving as a financial adviser.</p><p><blockquote>美银证券、高盛和海通国际担任此次交易的联席保荐人，瑞银则担任财务顾问。</blockquote></p><p>Assuming the deal is priced at the top end, JD Logistics' market capitalisation would be HK$264.1 billion, valuing it higher than ZTO Express.</p><p><blockquote>假设该交易定价为最高端，京东物流的市值将为2641亿港元，估值高于中通快递。</blockquote></p><p>Shanghai-based ZTO, which counts Alibaba Group Holding as one of its shareholders, had a market capitalisation of HK$180.7 billion when it listed in Hong Kong through a secondary listing last September. Alibaba owns the South China Morning Post.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于上海的中通去年9月通过二次上市在港上市时，市值为1807亿港元，阿里巴巴-SW集团是其股东之一。阿里巴巴-SW拥有《南华早报》。</blockquote></p><p>Investors will be keen to learn more about JD Logistics' plan to churn out a profit. The Beijing-based firm said in its prospectus that it expects a bigger net loss for this year, after racking up losses of 2.8 billion yuan (US$435 million) in 2018, 2.2 billion yuan in 2019 and 4 billion yuan in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将渴望了解更多有关京东物流盈利计划的信息。这家总部位于北京的公司在招股说明书中表示，预计今年的净亏损将更大，此前2018年亏损28亿元人民币（4.35亿美元），2019年亏损22亿元人民币，2020年亏损40亿元人民币。</blockquote></p><p>\"As we currently prioritise growth of our business and expansion of our market share over profitability, there can be significant fluctuations in our profitability profile in the near-to-medium term,\" the company said in its draft prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在招股说明书草案中表示：“由于我们目前将业务增长和市场份额扩大置于盈利能力之上，因此我们的盈利状况在中短期内可能会出现重大波动。”</blockquote></p><p>JD Logistics is seeking to differentiate itself from other players, such as ZTO and Yunda Holding, by touting itself as a technology-driven logistic services provider using autonomous mobile robots, sorting robots and self-driving vehicles to enhance delivery speed and accuracy.</p><p><blockquote>京东物流正在寻求与中通和韵达控股等其他参与者区分开来，将自己标榜为一家技术驱动的物流服务提供商，使用自主移动机器人、分拣机器人和自动驾驶汽车来提高配送速度和准确性。</blockquote></p><p>Pitching the stock sale with a tech angle could help JD Logistics paint a more positive outlook. This is because competition is particularly keen in the express delivery sector, with reports of some newer players offering services at below cost to grab business.</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度推销股票销售可以帮助京东物流描绘更积极的前景。这是因为快递行业的竞争尤其激烈，有报道称一些新参与者以低于成本的价格提供服务来抢占业务。</blockquote></p><p>Over the past three years, the average revenue per parcel for express delivery companies declined by 50 per cent to 60 per cent owing to intensive market competition, according to Charlie Chen, an analyst at China Renaissance.</p><p><blockquote>华兴资本分析师查理·陈(Charlie Chen)表示，过去三年，由于市场竞争激烈，快递公司每个包裹的平均收入下降了50%至60%。</blockquote></p><p>SF Express, China's top delivery service provider, shocked the market this month after it forecast a first-quarter loss of 1.1 billion yuan, triggering a sell-off of its stock. As of Friday's close, its share price in Shanghai was almost halved from its mid-February peak.</p><p><blockquote>中国最大的快递服务提供商顺丰本月震惊市场，此前该公司预测第一季度亏损11亿元人民币，引发了对其股票的抛售。截至周五收盘，其在上海的股价较2月中旬的峰值几乎腰斩。</blockquote></p><p>Five players - ZTO, YTO Express, STO Express, SF Express and Yunda Holding - account for nearly 80 per cent of China's express delivery service market.</p><p><blockquote>中通、圆通快递、申通快递、顺丰快递和韵达控股这五家公司占据了中国快递服务市场近80%的份额。</blockquote></p><p>China is the biggest logistics market in the world in terms of spending, with total logistics spending reaching 14.9 trillion yuan in 2020. That is expected to increase to 19.3 trillion yuan by 2025, according to data from research firm China Insights Consultancy cited in JD Logistics' prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>就支出而言，中国是全球最大的物流市场，2020年物流总支出达到14.9万亿元。京东物流招股说明书中引用的研究公司灼识咨询的数据显示，预计到2025年，这一数字将增至19.3万亿元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"02618":"京东物流"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2136738931","content_text":"The logistics arm of Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com started marketing its Hong Kong initial public offering (IPO) to retail investors on Monday at a price range of HK$39.36 to HK$43.36 per share, which could see the firm raise as much as HK$26.4 billion (US$3.4 billion) if the deal is priced at the top end.（Click here To apply for the JD Logistics Shares）JD Logistics' public offering will run from Monday to Friday. Its shares are expected to begin trading on the Hong Kong bourse's main board on May 28.JD Logistics plans to sell 609.2 million shares, representing 10 per cent of its enlarged share capital. There is an over-allotment option to sell up to 91.4 million more shares if there is a strong demand.Your application must be for a minimum of 100 Hong Kong Offer Shares and in one of the numbers set out in the table. You are required to pay the amount next to the number you select.JD Logistics' offering is expected to be the second multibillion-dollar IPO on the Hong Kong bourse this year, after Tencent-backed short video platform Kuaishou Technology raised US$6.2 billion in January. The Kuaishou offering was the biggest IPO globally so far this year.Eight cornerstone investors have committed to buy a total of US$1.5 billion worth of JD Logistics shares, which would account for about 39 per cent of its global offering if the deal is priced at the top end.The investors include Softbank, Singapore sovereign wealth fund Temasek Holdings, China Structural Reform Fund and asset managers such as Blackstone, Tiger Global Management and others.BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs and Haitong International are acting as joint sponsors on the transaction, while UBS is serving as a financial adviser.Assuming the deal is priced at the top end, JD Logistics' market capitalisation would be HK$264.1 billion, valuing it higher than ZTO Express.Shanghai-based ZTO, which counts Alibaba Group Holding as one of its shareholders, had a market capitalisation of HK$180.7 billion when it listed in Hong Kong through a secondary listing last September. Alibaba owns the South China Morning Post.Investors will be keen to learn more about JD Logistics' plan to churn out a profit. The Beijing-based firm said in its prospectus that it expects a bigger net loss for this year, after racking up losses of 2.8 billion yuan (US$435 million) in 2018, 2.2 billion yuan in 2019 and 4 billion yuan in 2020.\"As we currently prioritise growth of our business and expansion of our market share over profitability, there can be significant fluctuations in our profitability profile in the near-to-medium term,\" the company said in its draft prospectus.JD Logistics is seeking to differentiate itself from other players, such as ZTO and Yunda Holding, by touting itself as a technology-driven logistic services provider using autonomous mobile robots, sorting robots and self-driving vehicles to enhance delivery speed and accuracy.Pitching the stock sale with a tech angle could help JD Logistics paint a more positive outlook. This is because competition is particularly keen in the express delivery sector, with reports of some newer players offering services at below cost to grab business.Over the past three years, the average revenue per parcel for express delivery companies declined by 50 per cent to 60 per cent owing to intensive market competition, according to Charlie Chen, an analyst at China Renaissance.SF Express, China's top delivery service provider, shocked the market this month after it forecast a first-quarter loss of 1.1 billion yuan, triggering a sell-off of its stock. As of Friday's close, its share price in Shanghai was almost halved from its mid-February peak.Five players - ZTO, YTO Express, STO Express, SF Express and Yunda Holding - account for nearly 80 per cent of China's express delivery service market.China is the biggest logistics market in the world in terms of spending, with total logistics spending reaching 14.9 trillion yuan in 2020. That is expected to increase to 19.3 trillion yuan by 2025, according to data from research firm China Insights Consultancy cited in JD Logistics' prospectus.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02618":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170400090,"gmtCreate":1626444358110,"gmtModify":1631890333751,"author":{"id":"3573376359688247","authorId":"3573376359688247","name":"wetporridge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e8d16920a637485f08f435cf508aef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573376359688247","idStr":"3573376359688247"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool man","listText":"Cool man","text":"Cool man","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170400090","repostId":"1167804296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167804296","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626442279,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167804296?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 21:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow jumps above 35,000 as retail sales top expectations<blockquote>零售销售超出预期，道指跃升至35,000点以上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167804296","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock indexes rose on Friday as the latest retail sales data topped economists' expectations.\nT","content":"<p>U.S. stock indexes rose on Friday as the latest retail sales data topped economists' expectations.</p><p><blockquote>由于最新的零售销售数据超出了经济学家的预期，美国股指周五上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 80 points, or 0.23%. The S&amp;P 500 added 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨约80点，涨幅0.23%。标普500上涨0.4%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> June&nbsp;retail and food service sales&nbsp;rose 0.6%, while economists surveyed by the Dow Jones had expected a 0.4% decline. Excluding autos, those sales jumped 1.3%, beating economists' estimate of a 0.4% gain.</p><p><blockquote>6月份零售和食品服务销售额增长0.6%，而道琼斯调查的经济学家此前预计下降0.4%。不包括汽车在内，这些销售额增长了1.3%，超出了经济学家预期的0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Cyclical stocks tied to the economic recovery saw gains in early morning trading.A stabilization in bond yieldsaided this move with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing back up above 1.30%.</p><p><blockquote>与经济复苏相关的周期性股票在早盘交易中上涨。债券收益率企稳证实了这一举措，10年期国债收益率回升至1.30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> “While stock market valuations appear lofty, the global economic recovery continues to surge. Strong GDP and earnings growth, supportive fiscal and monetary policy, and a recovering labor market all support an optimistic view on stocks for the remainder of the year,” said Greg Marcus, UBS Private Wealth Management managing director.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银私人财富管理董事总经理Greg Marcus表示：“虽然股市估值看起来很高，但全球经济复苏仍在继续飙升。强劲的GDP和盈利增长、支持性的财政和货币政策以及复苏的劳动力市场都支持了对今年剩余时间股市的乐观看法。”</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America led gains in bank stocks in premarket trading. Boeing shares edged higher. Airlines, casinos, and energy stocks inched into the green.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行在盘前交易中领涨银行股。波音股价小幅走高。航空公司、赌场和能源股小幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Russell 2000 ETF, containing small cap shares more reliant on the U.S. economy, gained in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>iShares Russell 2000 ETF包含更依赖美国经济的小盘股，在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Live Nation’s stock rose in the premarket afterGoldman said the stock can rally nearly 40%as concerts return.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示，随着音乐会的回归，Live Nation的股价可能会上涨近40%，该股在盘前上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian each increased in early morning trading after Canada announced it wouldallow cruise ships to resume operationsin its waters starting Nov. 1, sooner than planned. Previously, the Canadian government extended its cruise ban until the end of February 2022.</p><p><blockquote>在加拿大宣布将允许游轮从11月1日起恢复在其水域运营（比原计划更早）后，嘉年华、皇家加勒比和挪威的股价在早盘交易中均上涨。此前，加拿大政府将邮轮禁令延长至2022年2月底。</blockquote></p><p> The moves in recovery-related stocks came even amid concerns about ultra-infectious variants of the coronavirus. Los Angeles County announced Thursday it wouldrestore an indoor mask mandate, including for fully-vaccinated people, due to a rapid and sustained increase in Covid-19 cases.</p><p><blockquote>尽管人们对冠状病毒的高传染性变种感到担忧，但与复苏相关的股票还是出现了走势。由于新冠肺炎病例快速持续增加，洛杉矶县周四宣布将恢复室内口罩强制令，包括对完全接种疫苗的人。</blockquote></p><p> Investors also digested strong earnings results from the first major week of second-quarter reports. Though some of the nation’s largest companies posted healthy profits and revenues amid the economic recovery, the reaction in the stock market has so far been muted.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还消化了第二季度报告第一个重要周的强劲盈利结果。尽管美国一些最大的公司在经济复苏中公布了健康的利润和收入，但迄今为止股市的反应一直很平静。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley’s&nbsp;second-quarter earnings report, for example, topped analysts’ expectations Thursday, yet its shares closed just 0.18% higher.</p><p><blockquote>例如，摩根士丹利周四发布的第二季度收益报告超出了分析师的预期，但其股价仅收盘上涨0.18%。</blockquote></p><p> For18 S&amp;P 500 companies that beat analyst estimates for second-quarter earnings this week, the average earnings-per-share result was 18% higher than expected. But those companies saw their shares fall 0.58% on average after reporting.</p><p><blockquote>本周第二季度盈利超出分析师预期的18家标普500公司，平均每股收益比预期高出18%。但这些公司的股价在发布报告后平均下跌0.58%。</blockquote></p><p> The soft moves in reaction to corporate earnings have contributed to a lackluster week for the S&amp;P 500, which dipped 0.2% on the week as of Thursday’s close.</p><p><blockquote>对企业盈利的疲软反应导致标普500本周表现低迷，截至周四收盘，该股本周下跌0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Much of the market’s upward pressure over the last week has come from a handful of mega-cap internet and communications stocks. Apple, Netflix, Google-parent Alphabet and Microsoft are all up this week.</p><p><blockquote>上周市场的大部分上行压力来自少数大型互联网和通信股。苹果、Netflix、谷歌母公司Alphabet和微软本周均上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street may be checking its optimism in the aftermath of the recent hotconsumer price index inflation reportand commentary from both Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen about the pace of price appreciation in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在最近热门的消费者价格指数通胀报告以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和财政部长珍妮特·耶伦对近期物价升值步伐的评论之后，华尔街可能会检查其乐观情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Yellen, who spoke to CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Thursday, said she predictsprices could continue to rise for several more months before cooling off.</p><p><blockquote>耶伦周四在CNBC的“收盘钟声”节目中表示，她预计价格可能会继续上涨几个月，然后才会降温。</blockquote></p><p> “I’m not saying that this is a one-month phenomenon. But I think over the medium term, we’ll see inflation decline back toward normal levels,” she said. “But, of course, we have to keep a careful eye on it.”</p><p><blockquote>“我并不是说这是一个月的现象。但我认为，从中期来看，我们将看到通胀回落至正常水平，”她说。“但是，当然，我们必须密切关注它。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow jumps above 35,000 as retail sales top expectations<blockquote>零售销售超出预期，道指跃升至35,000点以上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow jumps above 35,000 as retail sales top expectations<blockquote>零售销售超出预期，道指跃升至35,000点以上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-16 21:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock indexes rose on Friday as the latest retail sales data topped economists' expectations.</p><p><blockquote>由于最新的零售销售数据超出了经济学家的预期，美国股指周五上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 80 points, or 0.23%. The S&amp;P 500 added 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨约80点，涨幅0.23%。标普500上涨0.4%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> June&nbsp;retail and food service sales&nbsp;rose 0.6%, while economists surveyed by the Dow Jones had expected a 0.4% decline. Excluding autos, those sales jumped 1.3%, beating economists' estimate of a 0.4% gain.</p><p><blockquote>6月份零售和食品服务销售额增长0.6%，而道琼斯调查的经济学家此前预计下降0.4%。不包括汽车在内，这些销售额增长了1.3%，超出了经济学家预期的0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Cyclical stocks tied to the economic recovery saw gains in early morning trading.A stabilization in bond yieldsaided this move with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing back up above 1.30%.</p><p><blockquote>与经济复苏相关的周期性股票在早盘交易中上涨。债券收益率企稳证实了这一举措，10年期国债收益率回升至1.30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> “While stock market valuations appear lofty, the global economic recovery continues to surge. Strong GDP and earnings growth, supportive fiscal and monetary policy, and a recovering labor market all support an optimistic view on stocks for the remainder of the year,” said Greg Marcus, UBS Private Wealth Management managing director.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银私人财富管理董事总经理Greg Marcus表示：“虽然股市估值看起来很高，但全球经济复苏仍在继续飙升。强劲的GDP和盈利增长、支持性的财政和货币政策以及复苏的劳动力市场都支持了对今年剩余时间股市的乐观看法。”</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America led gains in bank stocks in premarket trading. Boeing shares edged higher. Airlines, casinos, and energy stocks inched into the green.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行在盘前交易中领涨银行股。波音股价小幅走高。航空公司、赌场和能源股小幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Russell 2000 ETF, containing small cap shares more reliant on the U.S. economy, gained in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>iShares Russell 2000 ETF包含更依赖美国经济的小盘股，在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Live Nation’s stock rose in the premarket afterGoldman said the stock can rally nearly 40%as concerts return.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示，随着音乐会的回归，Live Nation的股价可能会上涨近40%，该股在盘前上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian each increased in early morning trading after Canada announced it wouldallow cruise ships to resume operationsin its waters starting Nov. 1, sooner than planned. Previously, the Canadian government extended its cruise ban until the end of February 2022.</p><p><blockquote>在加拿大宣布将允许游轮从11月1日起恢复在其水域运营（比原计划更早）后，嘉年华、皇家加勒比和挪威的股价在早盘交易中均上涨。此前，加拿大政府将邮轮禁令延长至2022年2月底。</blockquote></p><p> The moves in recovery-related stocks came even amid concerns about ultra-infectious variants of the coronavirus. Los Angeles County announced Thursday it wouldrestore an indoor mask mandate, including for fully-vaccinated people, due to a rapid and sustained increase in Covid-19 cases.</p><p><blockquote>尽管人们对冠状病毒的高传染性变种感到担忧，但与复苏相关的股票还是出现了走势。由于新冠肺炎病例快速持续增加，洛杉矶县周四宣布将恢复室内口罩强制令，包括对完全接种疫苗的人。</blockquote></p><p> Investors also digested strong earnings results from the first major week of second-quarter reports. Though some of the nation’s largest companies posted healthy profits and revenues amid the economic recovery, the reaction in the stock market has so far been muted.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还消化了第二季度报告第一个重要周的强劲盈利结果。尽管美国一些最大的公司在经济复苏中公布了健康的利润和收入，但迄今为止股市的反应一直很平静。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley’s&nbsp;second-quarter earnings report, for example, topped analysts’ expectations Thursday, yet its shares closed just 0.18% higher.</p><p><blockquote>例如，摩根士丹利周四发布的第二季度收益报告超出了分析师的预期，但其股价仅收盘上涨0.18%。</blockquote></p><p> For18 S&amp;P 500 companies that beat analyst estimates for second-quarter earnings this week, the average earnings-per-share result was 18% higher than expected. But those companies saw their shares fall 0.58% on average after reporting.</p><p><blockquote>本周第二季度盈利超出分析师预期的18家标普500公司，平均每股收益比预期高出18%。但这些公司的股价在发布报告后平均下跌0.58%。</blockquote></p><p> The soft moves in reaction to corporate earnings have contributed to a lackluster week for the S&amp;P 500, which dipped 0.2% on the week as of Thursday’s close.</p><p><blockquote>对企业盈利的疲软反应导致标普500本周表现低迷，截至周四收盘，该股本周下跌0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Much of the market’s upward pressure over the last week has come from a handful of mega-cap internet and communications stocks. Apple, Netflix, Google-parent Alphabet and Microsoft are all up this week.</p><p><blockquote>上周市场的大部分上行压力来自少数大型互联网和通信股。苹果、Netflix、谷歌母公司Alphabet和微软本周均上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street may be checking its optimism in the aftermath of the recent hotconsumer price index inflation reportand commentary from both Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen about the pace of price appreciation in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在最近热门的消费者价格指数通胀报告以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和财政部长珍妮特·耶伦对近期物价升值步伐的评论之后，华尔街可能会检查其乐观情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Yellen, who spoke to CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Thursday, said she predictsprices could continue to rise for several more months before cooling off.</p><p><blockquote>耶伦周四在CNBC的“收盘钟声”节目中表示，她预计价格可能会继续上涨几个月，然后才会降温。</blockquote></p><p> “I’m not saying that this is a one-month phenomenon. But I think over the medium term, we’ll see inflation decline back toward normal levels,” she said. “But, of course, we have to keep a careful eye on it.”</p><p><blockquote>“我并不是说这是一个月的现象。但我认为，从中期来看，我们将看到通胀回落至正常水平，”她说。“但是，当然，我们必须密切关注它。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167804296","content_text":"U.S. stock indexes rose on Friday as the latest retail sales data topped economists' expectations.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 80 points, or 0.23%. The S&P 500 added 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3%.\nJune retail and food service sales rose 0.6%, while economists surveyed by the Dow Jones had expected a 0.4% decline. Excluding autos, those sales jumped 1.3%, beating economists' estimate of a 0.4% gain.\nCyclical stocks tied to the economic recovery saw gains in early morning trading.A stabilization in bond yieldsaided this move with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing back up above 1.30%.\n“While stock market valuations appear lofty, the global economic recovery continues to surge. Strong GDP and earnings growth, supportive fiscal and monetary policy, and a recovering labor market all support an optimistic view on stocks for the remainder of the year,” said Greg Marcus, UBS Private Wealth Management managing director.\nBank of America led gains in bank stocks in premarket trading. Boeing shares edged higher. Airlines, casinos, and energy stocks inched into the green.\nThe iShares Russell 2000 ETF, containing small cap shares more reliant on the U.S. economy, gained in premarket trading.\nLive Nation’s stock rose in the premarket afterGoldman said the stock can rally nearly 40%as concerts return.\nShares of Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian each increased in early morning trading after Canada announced it wouldallow cruise ships to resume operationsin its waters starting Nov. 1, sooner than planned. Previously, the Canadian government extended its cruise ban until the end of February 2022.\nThe moves in recovery-related stocks came even amid concerns about ultra-infectious variants of the coronavirus. Los Angeles County announced Thursday it wouldrestore an indoor mask mandate, including for fully-vaccinated people, due to a rapid and sustained increase in Covid-19 cases.\nInvestors also digested strong earnings results from the first major week of second-quarter reports. Though some of the nation’s largest companies posted healthy profits and revenues amid the economic recovery, the reaction in the stock market has so far been muted.\nMorgan Stanley’s second-quarter earnings report, for example, topped analysts’ expectations Thursday, yet its shares closed just 0.18% higher.\nFor18 S&P 500 companies that beat analyst estimates for second-quarter earnings this week, the average earnings-per-share result was 18% higher than expected. But those companies saw their shares fall 0.58% on average after reporting.\nThe soft moves in reaction to corporate earnings have contributed to a lackluster week for the S&P 500, which dipped 0.2% on the week as of Thursday’s close.\nMuch of the market’s upward pressure over the last week has come from a handful of mega-cap internet and communications stocks. Apple, Netflix, Google-parent Alphabet and Microsoft are all up this week.\nWall Street may be checking its optimism in the aftermath of the recent hotconsumer price index inflation reportand commentary from both Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen about the pace of price appreciation in the near term.\nYellen, who spoke to CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Thursday, said she predictsprices could continue to rise for several more months before cooling off.\n“I’m not saying that this is a one-month phenomenon. But I think over the medium term, we’ll see inflation decline back toward normal levels,” she said. “But, of course, we have to keep a careful eye on it.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}