chinlee的个人主页 - 老虎社区

chinlee

chinlee

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2021-08-17

u can do well for the long term OPEN!!

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2021-07-08

short squeeze will happen soon for AMC !!!! let’sall diamond hand AMC !!! APES LETS GO !!

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2021-07-08

Appl is a great stock to hold for long term

Why Apple Stock Climbed to a New High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至新高</blockquote>

2021-07-03

let’s go nio!!!

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2021-06-25

nio u can do it

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2021-06-20

long term potential growth stock to have !

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2021-06-20

pltr is definitely a great and massive stock to hold for the long term , future gains will be huge !

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2021-06-20

long term gains 💪🏻

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2021-06-18

PLTR LETS GO

Palantir: The Untold Truth<blockquote>Palantir：不为人知的真相</blockquote>

2021-06-18

i believe in BABA! good things take time!

Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>

2021-06-18

let’s go amc

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2021-06-15

nio , you’re doing great, goodjob on being so innovative !!!

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2021-06-15

long term hold 😎

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2021-06-15

dont let me down appl! u can do it !!!

Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股票还是苹果，我每次都选择苹果</blockquote>

2021-06-14

meme stock r scary

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2021-06-14

holding on to btc.

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2021-06-12

Great job appl for alws trying to think of ways to improve on urself

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2021-06-11

Appl is constantly improving on their innovation! great job !

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2021-06-11

great innovation !

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2021-06-09

u can do it tesla

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can do well for the long term OPEN!!&nbsp;","listText":"u can do well for the long term OPEN!!&nbsp;","text":"u can do well for the long term OPEN!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839750936","repostId":"2158257574","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149207320,"gmtCreate":1625727329760,"gmtModify":1633937952502,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"short squeeze will happen soon for AMC !!!! let’sall diamond hand AMC !!! APES LETS GO !!&nbsp;","listText":"short squeeze will happen soon for AMC !!!! let’sall diamond hand AMC !!! APES LETS GO !!&nbsp;","text":"short squeeze will happen soon for AMC !!!! let’sall diamond hand AMC !!! APES LETS GO !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149207320","repostId":"1139964769","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149209846,"gmtCreate":1625726758785,"gmtModify":1633937958057,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Appl is a great stock to hold for long term&nbsp;","listText":"Appl is a great stock to hold for long term&nbsp;","text":"Appl is a great stock to hold for long term","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149209846","repostId":"1140881081","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140881081","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625714447,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1140881081?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-08 11:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple Stock Climbed to a New High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140881081","media":"The motley fool","summary":"Shares of $Apple$rose 1.8% to a record closing high of $144.57 on Wednesday after a respected Wall Street investment bank issued bullish commentary on the popular tech stock.JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee reiterated his overweight rating on Apple's stock yesterday and boosted his share price forecast from $165 to $170. His new estimate implies potential gains to investors of roughly 18% in the coming year.Chatterjee noted that Apple underperformed theS&P 500and$Nasdaq$in the first half of 202","content":"<p>What happened</p><p><blockquote>发生了什么事</blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a></b>(NASDAQ:AAPL)rose 1.8% to a record closing high of $144.57 on Wednesday after a respected Wall Street investment bank issued bullish commentary on the popular tech stock.</p><p><blockquote>股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a></b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）周三上涨 1.8%，至 144.57 美元的历史收盘高点，此前一家受人尊敬的华尔街投资银行对这只受欢迎的科技股发表了看涨评论。</blockquote></p><p> So what</p><p><blockquote>那又怎样</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee reiterated his overweight rating on Apple's stock yesterday and boosted his share price forecast from $165 to $170. His new estimate implies potential gains to investors of roughly 18% in the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师 Samik Chatterjee 昨天重申了对苹果股票的跑赢大盘评级，并将股价预测从 165 美元上调至 170 美元。他的新估计意味着未来一年投资者的潜在收益约为 18%。</blockquote></p><p> Chatterjee noted that Apple underperformed the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>and<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a></b>in the first half of 2021. Yet he expects thetechtitan to post strong sales of both current and future models of the iPhone. Thus, Chatterjee posits that Apple's shares could generate strong gains for shareholders in the second half of the year ahead of the launch of the iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>查特吉指出，苹果的表现逊于<b>标普500</b>和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a></b>2021年上半年。然而，他预计这家科技巨头将在当前和未来型号的iPhone上销售强劲。因此，查特吉认为，在 iPhone 13 推出之前，苹果股价可能会在下半年为股东带来强劲收益。</blockquote></p><p> Now what</p><p><blockquote>现在呢</blockquote></p><p> The recent rally in Apple's stock price suggests many investors agree with Chatterjee's bullish outlook. They're likely correct to do so. Robust iPhone volumes tend to also drive sales of Apple's high-margin services and fast-growing wearables revenue. So, if it does deliver blowout iPhone sales figures, Apple could enjoy an earnings bonanza later this year. This potential profit windfall, combined with Apple's bountiful share repurchases and steadily growing dividend, gives shareholders multiple ways to win.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价最近的反弹表明许多投资者同意查特吉的看涨前景。他们这样做可能是正确的。强劲的 iPhone 销量也往往会推动苹果高利润服务的销售和快速增长的可穿戴设备收入。因此，如果 iPhone 确实实现井喷式销售数据，苹果可能会在今年晚些时候享受丰厚的盈利。这种潜在的利润意外之财，加上苹果大量的股票回购和稳步增长的股息，为股东提供了多种获胜方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple Stock Climbed to a New High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple Stock Climbed to a New High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The motley fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-08 11:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What happened</p><p><blockquote>发生了什么事</blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a></b>(NASDAQ:AAPL)rose 1.8% to a record closing high of $144.57 on Wednesday after a respected Wall Street investment bank issued bullish commentary on the popular tech stock.</p><p><blockquote>股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a></b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）周三上涨 1.8%，至 144.57 美元的历史收盘高点，此前一家受人尊敬的华尔街投资银行对这只受欢迎的科技股发表了看涨评论。</blockquote></p><p> So what</p><p><blockquote>那又怎样</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee reiterated his overweight rating on Apple's stock yesterday and boosted his share price forecast from $165 to $170. His new estimate implies potential gains to investors of roughly 18% in the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师 Samik Chatterjee 昨天重申了对苹果股票的跑赢大盘评级，并将股价预测从 165 美元上调至 170 美元。他的新估计意味着未来一年投资者的潜在收益约为 18%。</blockquote></p><p> Chatterjee noted that Apple underperformed the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>and<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a></b>in the first half of 2021. Yet he expects thetechtitan to post strong sales of both current and future models of the iPhone. Thus, Chatterjee posits that Apple's shares could generate strong gains for shareholders in the second half of the year ahead of the launch of the iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>查特吉指出，苹果的表现逊于<b>标普500</b>和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a></b>2021年上半年。然而，他预计这家科技巨头将在当前和未来型号的iPhone上销售强劲。因此，查特吉认为，在 iPhone 13 推出之前，苹果股价可能会在下半年为股东带来强劲收益。</blockquote></p><p> Now what</p><p><blockquote>现在呢</blockquote></p><p> The recent rally in Apple's stock price suggests many investors agree with Chatterjee's bullish outlook. They're likely correct to do so. Robust iPhone volumes tend to also drive sales of Apple's high-margin services and fast-growing wearables revenue. So, if it does deliver blowout iPhone sales figures, Apple could enjoy an earnings bonanza later this year. This potential profit windfall, combined with Apple's bountiful share repurchases and steadily growing dividend, gives shareholders multiple ways to win.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价最近的反弹表明许多投资者同意查特吉的看涨前景。他们这样做可能是正确的。强劲的 iPhone 销量也往往会推动苹果高利润服务的销售和快速增长的可穿戴设备收入。因此，如果 iPhone 确实实现井喷式销售数据，苹果可能会在今年晚些时候享受丰厚的盈利。这种潜在的利润意外之财，加上苹果大量的股票回购和稳步增长的股息，为股东提供了多种获胜方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/07/why-apple-stock-climbed-to-a-new-high-today/\">The motley fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NGD":"New Gold","09086":"华夏纳指-U","03086":"华夏纳指","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/07/why-apple-stock-climbed-to-a-new-high-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140881081","content_text":"What happened\nShares of Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)rose 1.8% to a record closing high of $144.57 on Wednesday after a respected Wall Street investment bank issued bullish commentary on the popular tech stock.\nSo what\nJPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee reiterated his overweight rating on Apple's stock yesterday and boosted his share price forecast from $165 to $170. His new estimate implies potential gains to investors of roughly 18% in the coming year.\nChatterjee noted that Apple underperformed theS&P 500andNasdaqin the first half of 2021. Yet he expects thetechtitan to post strong sales of both current and future models of the iPhone. Thus, Chatterjee posits that Apple's shares could generate strong gains for shareholders in the second half of the year ahead of the launch of the iPhone 13.\nNow what\nThe recent rally in Apple's stock price suggests many investors agree with Chatterjee's bullish outlook. They're likely correct to do so. Robust iPhone volumes tend to also drive sales of Apple's high-margin services and fast-growing wearables revenue. So, if it does deliver blowout iPhone sales figures, Apple could enjoy an earnings bonanza later this year. This potential profit windfall, combined with Apple's bountiful share repurchases and steadily growing dividend, gives shareholders multiple ways to win.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NGD":0.9,"03086":0.9,"09086":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152147673,"gmtCreate":1625278263092,"gmtModify":1633941844459,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"let’s go nio!!!","listText":"let’s go nio!!!","text":"let’s go nio!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152147673","repostId":"2148857804","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125096034,"gmtCreate":1624635795928,"gmtModify":1633950213185,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nio u can do it&nbsp;","listText":"nio u can do it&nbsp;","text":"nio u can do it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125096034","repostId":"1198714523","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164994192,"gmtCreate":1624164466616,"gmtModify":1634009930369,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"long term potential growth stock to have !&nbsp;","listText":"long term potential growth stock to have !&nbsp;","text":"long term potential growth stock to have !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164994192","repostId":"1192473918","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164995586,"gmtCreate":1624164445345,"gmtModify":1634009931064,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"pltr is definitely a great and massive stock to hold for the long term , future gains will be huge !","listText":"pltr is definitely a great and massive stock to hold for the long term , future gains will be huge !","text":"pltr is definitely a great and massive stock to hold for the long term , future gains will be huge !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164995586","repostId":"1192473918","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164908044,"gmtCreate":1624163686788,"gmtModify":1634009943246,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"long term gains 💪🏻","listText":"long term gains 💪🏻","text":"long term gains 💪🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164908044","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166960325,"gmtCreate":1623988312367,"gmtModify":1634024537300,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"PLTR LETS GO&nbsp;","listText":"PLTR LETS GO&nbsp;","text":"PLTR LETS GO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166960325","repostId":"1180977741","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180977741","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623981539,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1180977741?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: The Untold Truth<blockquote>Palantir：不为人知的真相</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180977741","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base an","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base and its bleak margin profile.</li>  <li>But the company is actually doing well in terms of customer growth, margin expansion and government order wins.</li>  <li>Investors with a long-term time horizon may want to accumulate its shares on potential price corrections.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6abc7f93f4c7e615f66dca20523d1c16\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1077\"><span>C Flanigan/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 经常因其高估值倍数、停滞不前的客户群和惨淡的利润率而受到批评。</li><li>但该公司实际上在客户增长、利润率扩张和政府订单赢得方面表现良好。</li><li>具有长期期限的投资者可能希望在潜在的价格调整时积累股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>弗拉尼根/盖蒂图片娱乐公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir (PLTR) is lately being lambasted in various investing forums on speculative grounds such as how its growth momentum could fizzle out soon, how its margin profile is dragging the company down and that the stock doesn’t justify its price premium. But the company isn't as bad. On the contrary, the data analytics firm is performing well on several parameters – such as customer growth, government order wins and margin expansion – which should come as an encouraging sign for its long-side investors and dispel such speculative bearish narratives. Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) 最近在各种投资论坛上遭到抨击，理由是投机性的，如其增长势头可能很快就会消失，其利润率状况正在拖累公司，以及该股无法证明其溢价的合理性。但这家公司并没有那么糟糕。相反，这家数据分析公司在客户增长、政府订单中标和利润率扩张等多个参数上表现良好，这对其多头投资者来说应该是一个令人鼓舞的迹象，并消除此类投机性的看跌言论。让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rapid Customer Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户快速增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears have been criticizing Palantir for its bespoke functionality ever since it went public. Its platforms involve customization for various workflows and customer needs, so bears feel the company faces difficulty in onboarding several customers at once and as a result, it’s bottlenecked and its growth momentum can fizzle out. While I respect contrasting opinions, fact of the matter here is that Palantir doesn’t seem to be struggling with customer adds.</p><p><blockquote>自 Palantir 上市以来，Bears 一直批评其定制功能。bears 的平台需要针对各种工作流程和客户需求进行定制，因此 bears 认为该公司很难同时招聘多家客户，因此出现瓶颈，增长势头可能会减弱。虽然我尊重不同的意见，但事实是，Palantir 似乎并没有在增加客户方面苦苦挣扎。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s customer count increased by over 7% on a sequential basis in Q1 2021. Our database at Business Quant reveals that this pace of growth is actually higher than that reported by some of the other renowned names in the software application and infrastructure industries. This immediately dispels the narrative that Palantir faces difficulty in scaling customer relationships due to its bespoke features, whenit's performing better than peers in this regard.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第一季度，公司客户数量环比增长超过 7%。我们在Business Quant的数据库显示，这一增长率实际上高于软件应用和基础设施行业其他一些知名企业的报告。这立即消除了 Palantir 因其定制功能而在扩大客户关系方面面临困难的说法，而 Palantir 在这方面的表现优于同行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37577e60466b8a980efd8bee77b02711\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company’s elevated pace of customer additions shouldn’t come as a surprise to my readers. I’ve explained in my prior articles how the company is undertaking a slew of measures – such as adopting a customer-friendly&nbsp;payment model, ramping up its&nbsp;sales function&nbsp;and introducing&nbsp;free trials&nbsp;for major enterprises – to expand its customer base. These initiatives were announced only a few months ago, and will continue for the rest of FY21, so I expect Palantir to continue adding customers at a rapid rate in near future as well.</p><p><blockquote>该公司增加客户的速度加快应该不会让我的读者感到意外。我在之前的文章中解释了该公司如何采取一系列措施来扩大客户群，如采用客户友好的支付模式、加强销售功能以及为大型企业提供免费试用。这些举措仅在几个月前才宣布，并将持续到 2021 财年的剩余时间，因此我预计 Palantir 在不久的将来也将继续快速增加客户。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, there’s no denying that Palantir’s customer base isn’t as sizable as some of its peers, but that’s also where its growth opportunity lies. It suggests that Palantir is yet to penetrate its target market in a big way and that its lower base effect makes it easier for the company to continue expanding its customer base at elevated rates.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，不可否认的是，Palantir 的客户群不如一些同行庞大，但这也是其增长机会所在。这表明 Palantir 尚未大规模渗透其目标市场，其较低的基数效应使该公司更容易以较高的速度继续扩大其客户群。</blockquote></p><p> There are broadly four takeaways here, which, by the way, the bears seem to discount time and again. These are:</p><p><blockquote>这里大致有四点要点，顺便说一句，空头似乎一次又一次地打折。这些是：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's target market isn't saturated yet and it can still find new customers with ease,</li>  <li>These new customers are bound to lift the company’s revenue higher in 2021 by a varied magnitude, depending on their contract value,</li>  <li>If these are recurring contracts, then that’s going to boost Palantir’s future revenue projections and guidance,</li>  <li>If these new customers eventually ramp up their spend, then that's also going to boost Palantir’s future cash flows.</li> </ul> Regarding the last bullet, it's worth noting that Palantir’s top 20 customers, in general, have significantly ramped up their spending on the company’s data analytics platforms in each of the last 10 years. This new batch of customers, and any future customer additions, could also go through this spending expansion phase in the subsequent years and gradually boost Palantir’s revenue along the way. So, we must give due importance to its rapid pace of customer adds and not take it lightly.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 的目标市场尚未饱和，仍然可以轻松找到新客户，</li><li>这些新客户必将在 2021 年提高公司的收入，具体取决于他们的合同价值、</li><li>如果这些是经常性合同，那么这将提高 Palantir 未来的收入预测和指导、</li><li>如果这些新客户最终增加了支出，那么这也将促进 Palantir 未来的现金流。</li></ul>关于最后一颗子弹，值得注意的是，在过去 10 年中，Palantir 的前 20 名客户总体上都大幅增加了在公司数据分析平台上的支出。这批新客户以及未来增加的任何客户也可能在随后几年经历这一支出扩张阶段，并在此过程中逐步提高 Palantir 的收入。因此，我们必须对其快速增加的客户速度给予应有的重视，不能掉以轻心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4923a1dd5cc6af812c6dd7b8335f878\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Margin Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>余量扩展</b></blockquote></p><p> Another issue with assessing Palantir’s growth prospects is that the company isn’t profitable yet. While some feel the stock will remain subdued due to its weak margin profile, others feel it can collapse down to single digits. The frustration is understandable given the company posted a net loss of $0.07 per share in its most recent quarter.</p><p><blockquote>评估 Palantir 增长前景的另一个问题是，该公司尚未盈利。虽然一些人认为该股由于利润率疲软而将保持低迷，但其他人认为该股可能会跌至个位数。鉴于该公司最近一个季度每股净亏损 0.07 美元，这种沮丧是可以理解的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/facd3a7bf5326c841c6f0e79d392d160\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"125\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But I wanted to see for myself if Palantir’s margin profile was actually as hopeless as many believe it to be. So, I compiled the margin profiles for about 90 software infrastructure stocks listed on US bourses. There's no denying that the company's net profit margin is in the red. But what's surprising here is that Palantir had actually posted one of the highest sequential net margin expansions in Q1, in its peer group. To the best of my knowledge, this aspect of Palantir’s business hasn’t been discussed on any investing forum.</p><p><blockquote>但我想亲眼看看 Palantir 的利润率是否真的像许多人认为的那样毫无希望。因此，我编制了在美国证券交易所上市的大约90只软件基础设施股票的保证金概况。不可否认，公司净利润率处于亏损状态。但令人惊讶的是，Palantir 实际上在第一季度实现了同行中最高的连续净利润扩张之一。据我所知，Palantir 业务的这一方面还没有在任何投资论坛上讨论过。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25614333f421bbcdaf90b43a6ed8e011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"552\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company may not have been profitable so far, but that doesn’t mean it will remain unprofitable in the future as well. If its recent pace of margin expansion continues in the next several quarters, the company could become profitable in the next 2 to 3 years without sacrificing on its growth momentum. So, let’s give credit where it’s due. The community of professional analysts also shares this line of thought and projects Palantir's margin profile to materially improve going forward.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，该公司可能还没有盈利，但这并不意味着它将来也不会盈利。如果其最近的利润率扩张步伐在未来几个季度继续下去，该公司可能会在未来 2 至 3 年内实现盈利，而不会牺牲其增长势头。因此，让我们在该表扬的地方给予表扬。专业分析师社区也认同这一想法，并预计 Palantir 的利润率将在未来大幅改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0017c547d56295730e8f7f4124935d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"><span>(Source:MarketScreener)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：MarketScreener）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Besides, with public shareholding involved now, its management is likely to be under constant pressure to deliver breakneck revenue growth rates, and/or achieve profitability in the near future, or risk being voted out of their positions. This pressure may not have been as intense prior to its direct listing, when fewer shareholders were involved. So, overall, I don’t think Palantir’s margin profile is hopeless as many believe it to be, and I expect the company to become profitable by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着现在公众持股的参与，其管理层可能会面临持续的压力，以实现惊人的收入增长率和/或在不久的将来实现盈利，或者面临被投票罢免的风险。在直接上市之前，这种压力可能没有那么大，当时参与的股东较少。因此，总体而言，我不认为 Palantir 的利润率状况像许多人认为的那样毫无希望，我预计该公司将在 2024 年实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Government Contract Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>政府合同获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> Moving on, Palantir has been doing extremely well when it comes to securing government contracts. B2G contracts are generally tough to win – given the extensive qualification criteria, long turnaround times and heightened competition – but Palantir seems to have the figured out recipe for success on the government side of its business. For the uninitiated, its revenue from government contracts rose 76% year over year, accounted for about 61% of the company's overall revenue, in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，Palantir 在获得政府合同方面做得非常好。B2G 合同通常很难赢得——考虑到广泛的资格标准、较长的周转时间和加剧的竞争——但 Palantir 似乎已经找到了在政府业务方面取得成功的秘诀。对于外行人来说，第一季度其政府合同收入同比增长76%，约占公司总收入的61%。</blockquote></p><p> Unless the company botches up somewhere, these government agencies are likely going to internally recommend it for varied applications. They won’t have to qualify Palantir time and again for several criteria which could drive these internal cross-agency referrals in a speedy manner and these agencies might even ramp up their spending in pre-existing contracts. So, Palantir just needs to rinse-and-repeat its B2G (Business-to-Government) strategy, and its government revenue could continue growing rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>除非该公司在某个地方出了问题，否则这些政府机构可能会在内部推荐它用于各种应用。他们不必一次又一次地通过 Palantir 的几项标准，这些标准可能会推动这些内部跨机构推荐，这些机构甚至可能会增加在现有合同上的支出。因此，Palantir 只需要清洗并重复其 B2G（企业对政府）战略，其政府收入就可以继续快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has also made steady progress with regards to its government business so far in Q2. Its Q2 is still ongoing, but at the time of this writing, the company has over $36 million worth of new current action obligations from government deals, agreements and contracts, most of which haven’t made the headlines. For the uninitiated, a new deal could be an addition to pre-existing deal, expand the scope of previously agreed upon deliverables, it could be entirely new in nature, have varied execution periods that span from months to years and/or also have a recurring revenue stream attached to it.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，Palantir 在第二季度的政府业务方面也取得了稳步进展。其第二季度仍在进行中，但在撰写本文时，该公司根据政府交易、协议和合同承担了价值超过 3600 万美元的新流动性行动义务，其中大部分尚未成为头条新闻。对于新手来说，新交易可能是对现有交易的补充，扩大了先前商定的交付成果的范围，它可能是全新的，具有从几个月到几年的不同执行期和/或还具有经常性收入流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091203d7b476076ff008ca0c3b0f6ad2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, while there are several variables that prevent us from reliably estimating the near-term revenue impact from these deals, Palantir’s shareholders with a long-term time horizon should feel reassured that their company continues to make steady progress towards growing its government business.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然有几个变量使我们无法可靠地估计这些交易对近期收入的影响，但 Palantir 的长期股东应该可以放心，他们的公司将继续在发展政府业务方面取得稳步进展。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s shares are currently trading at about 43-times its trailing twelve-month sales which is, undeniably, high by conventional standards.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 目前的股价约为过去 12 个月销售额的 43 倍，不可否认，按照传统标准来看，这是一个很高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40584e7d2ca5458e8609338887f80e2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, its rich valuations alone shouldn't be the basis of a bear thesis. Palantir's valuation multiples may be high, but note from the chart above thatits revenue growth rate in Q1 was also higher than most of its peers.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其丰富的估值本身不应成为看跌论点的基础。Palantir 的估值倍数可能很高，但从上图可以看出，第一季度的收入增长率也高于大多数同行。</blockquote></p><p> So, I believe the price premium is justified by the company’s rapid pace of revenue growth (illustrated in the chart above), its qualitative growth catalysts discussed in this article and its relatively secure government revenue stream.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我认为该公司收入增长速度快（如上图所示）、本文讨论的定性增长催化剂以及相对安全的政府收入来源都证明了价格溢价的合理性。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Keeping these factors in mind, investors with a multi-year time horizon may want to increase exposure to Palantir on potential price corrections. The stock is likely to reach new highs as its growth catalysts eventually materialize, and as the company approaches profitability, in the next 2 to 3 years. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这些因素，具有多年投资期限的投资者可能希望在潜在价格调整时增加对 Palantir 的投资。随着其增长催化剂最终实现以及公司接近盈利，该股可能会在未来 2 到 3 年内创下新高。祝你好运!</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: The Untold Truth<blockquote>Palantir：不为人知的真相</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: The Untold Truth<blockquote>Palantir：不为人知的真相</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base and its bleak margin profile.</li>  <li>But the company is actually doing well in terms of customer growth, margin expansion and government order wins.</li>  <li>Investors with a long-term time horizon may want to accumulate its shares on potential price corrections.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6abc7f93f4c7e615f66dca20523d1c16\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1077\"><span>C Flanigan/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 经常因其高估值倍数、停滞不前的客户群和惨淡的利润率而受到批评。</li><li>但该公司实际上在客户增长、利润率扩张和政府订单赢得方面表现良好。</li><li>具有长期期限的投资者可能希望在潜在的价格调整时积累股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>弗拉尼根/盖蒂图片娱乐公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir (PLTR) is lately being lambasted in various investing forums on speculative grounds such as how its growth momentum could fizzle out soon, how its margin profile is dragging the company down and that the stock doesn’t justify its price premium. But the company isn't as bad. On the contrary, the data analytics firm is performing well on several parameters – such as customer growth, government order wins and margin expansion – which should come as an encouraging sign for its long-side investors and dispel such speculative bearish narratives. Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) 最近在各种投资论坛上遭到抨击，理由是投机性的，如其增长势头可能很快就会消失，其利润率状况正在拖累公司，以及该股无法证明其溢价的合理性。但这家公司并没有那么糟糕。相反，这家数据分析公司在客户增长、政府订单中标和利润率扩张等多个参数上表现良好，这对其多头投资者来说应该是一个令人鼓舞的迹象，并消除此类投机性的看跌言论。让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rapid Customer Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户快速增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears have been criticizing Palantir for its bespoke functionality ever since it went public. Its platforms involve customization for various workflows and customer needs, so bears feel the company faces difficulty in onboarding several customers at once and as a result, it’s bottlenecked and its growth momentum can fizzle out. While I respect contrasting opinions, fact of the matter here is that Palantir doesn’t seem to be struggling with customer adds.</p><p><blockquote>自 Palantir 上市以来，Bears 一直批评其定制功能。bears 的平台需要针对各种工作流程和客户需求进行定制，因此 bears 认为该公司很难同时招聘多家客户，因此出现瓶颈，增长势头可能会减弱。虽然我尊重不同的意见，但事实是，Palantir 似乎并没有在增加客户方面苦苦挣扎。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s customer count increased by over 7% on a sequential basis in Q1 2021. Our database at Business Quant reveals that this pace of growth is actually higher than that reported by some of the other renowned names in the software application and infrastructure industries. This immediately dispels the narrative that Palantir faces difficulty in scaling customer relationships due to its bespoke features, whenit's performing better than peers in this regard.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第一季度，公司客户数量环比增长超过 7%。我们在Business Quant的数据库显示，这一增长率实际上高于软件应用和基础设施行业其他一些知名企业的报告。这立即消除了 Palantir 因其定制功能而在扩大客户关系方面面临困难的说法，而 Palantir 在这方面的表现优于同行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37577e60466b8a980efd8bee77b02711\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company’s elevated pace of customer additions shouldn’t come as a surprise to my readers. I’ve explained in my prior articles how the company is undertaking a slew of measures – such as adopting a customer-friendly&nbsp;payment model, ramping up its&nbsp;sales function&nbsp;and introducing&nbsp;free trials&nbsp;for major enterprises – to expand its customer base. These initiatives were announced only a few months ago, and will continue for the rest of FY21, so I expect Palantir to continue adding customers at a rapid rate in near future as well.</p><p><blockquote>该公司增加客户的速度加快应该不会让我的读者感到意外。我在之前的文章中解释了该公司如何采取一系列措施来扩大客户群，如采用客户友好的支付模式、加强销售功能以及为大型企业提供免费试用。这些举措仅在几个月前才宣布，并将持续到 2021 财年的剩余时间，因此我预计 Palantir 在不久的将来也将继续快速增加客户。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, there’s no denying that Palantir’s customer base isn’t as sizable as some of its peers, but that’s also where its growth opportunity lies. It suggests that Palantir is yet to penetrate its target market in a big way and that its lower base effect makes it easier for the company to continue expanding its customer base at elevated rates.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，不可否认的是，Palantir 的客户群不如一些同行庞大，但这也是其增长机会所在。这表明 Palantir 尚未大规模渗透其目标市场，其较低的基数效应使该公司更容易以较高的速度继续扩大其客户群。</blockquote></p><p> There are broadly four takeaways here, which, by the way, the bears seem to discount time and again. These are:</p><p><blockquote>这里大致有四点要点，顺便说一句，空头似乎一次又一次地打折。这些是：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's target market isn't saturated yet and it can still find new customers with ease,</li>  <li>These new customers are bound to lift the company’s revenue higher in 2021 by a varied magnitude, depending on their contract value,</li>  <li>If these are recurring contracts, then that’s going to boost Palantir’s future revenue projections and guidance,</li>  <li>If these new customers eventually ramp up their spend, then that's also going to boost Palantir’s future cash flows.</li> </ul> Regarding the last bullet, it's worth noting that Palantir’s top 20 customers, in general, have significantly ramped up their spending on the company’s data analytics platforms in each of the last 10 years. This new batch of customers, and any future customer additions, could also go through this spending expansion phase in the subsequent years and gradually boost Palantir’s revenue along the way. So, we must give due importance to its rapid pace of customer adds and not take it lightly.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 的目标市场尚未饱和，仍然可以轻松找到新客户，</li><li>这些新客户必将在 2021 年提高公司的收入，具体取决于他们的合同价值、</li><li>如果这些是经常性合同，那么这将提高 Palantir 未来的收入预测和指导、</li><li>如果这些新客户最终增加了支出，那么这也将促进 Palantir 未来的现金流。</li></ul>关于最后一颗子弹，值得注意的是，在过去 10 年中，Palantir 的前 20 名客户总体上都大幅增加了在公司数据分析平台上的支出。这批新客户以及未来增加的任何客户也可能在随后几年经历这一支出扩张阶段，并在此过程中逐步提高 Palantir 的收入。因此，我们必须对其快速增加的客户速度给予应有的重视，不能掉以轻心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4923a1dd5cc6af812c6dd7b8335f878\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Margin Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>余量扩展</b></blockquote></p><p> Another issue with assessing Palantir’s growth prospects is that the company isn’t profitable yet. While some feel the stock will remain subdued due to its weak margin profile, others feel it can collapse down to single digits. The frustration is understandable given the company posted a net loss of $0.07 per share in its most recent quarter.</p><p><blockquote>评估 Palantir 增长前景的另一个问题是，该公司尚未盈利。虽然一些人认为该股由于利润率疲软而将保持低迷，但其他人认为该股可能会跌至个位数。鉴于该公司最近一个季度每股净亏损 0.07 美元，这种沮丧是可以理解的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/facd3a7bf5326c841c6f0e79d392d160\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"125\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But I wanted to see for myself if Palantir’s margin profile was actually as hopeless as many believe it to be. So, I compiled the margin profiles for about 90 software infrastructure stocks listed on US bourses. There's no denying that the company's net profit margin is in the red. But what's surprising here is that Palantir had actually posted one of the highest sequential net margin expansions in Q1, in its peer group. To the best of my knowledge, this aspect of Palantir’s business hasn’t been discussed on any investing forum.</p><p><blockquote>但我想亲眼看看 Palantir 的利润率是否真的像许多人认为的那样毫无希望。因此，我编制了在美国证券交易所上市的大约90只软件基础设施股票的保证金概况。不可否认，公司净利润率处于亏损状态。但令人惊讶的是，Palantir 实际上在第一季度实现了同行中最高的连续净利润扩张之一。据我所知，Palantir 业务的这一方面还没有在任何投资论坛上讨论过。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25614333f421bbcdaf90b43a6ed8e011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"552\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company may not have been profitable so far, but that doesn’t mean it will remain unprofitable in the future as well. If its recent pace of margin expansion continues in the next several quarters, the company could become profitable in the next 2 to 3 years without sacrificing on its growth momentum. So, let’s give credit where it’s due. The community of professional analysts also shares this line of thought and projects Palantir's margin profile to materially improve going forward.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，该公司可能还没有盈利，但这并不意味着它将来也不会盈利。如果其最近的利润率扩张步伐在未来几个季度继续下去，该公司可能会在未来 2 至 3 年内实现盈利，而不会牺牲其增长势头。因此，让我们在该表扬的地方给予表扬。专业分析师社区也认同这一想法，并预计 Palantir 的利润率将在未来大幅改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0017c547d56295730e8f7f4124935d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"><span>(Source:MarketScreener)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：MarketScreener）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Besides, with public shareholding involved now, its management is likely to be under constant pressure to deliver breakneck revenue growth rates, and/or achieve profitability in the near future, or risk being voted out of their positions. This pressure may not have been as intense prior to its direct listing, when fewer shareholders were involved. So, overall, I don’t think Palantir’s margin profile is hopeless as many believe it to be, and I expect the company to become profitable by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着现在公众持股的参与，其管理层可能会面临持续的压力，以实现惊人的收入增长率和/或在不久的将来实现盈利，或者面临被投票罢免的风险。在直接上市之前，这种压力可能没有那么大，当时参与的股东较少。因此，总体而言，我不认为 Palantir 的利润率状况像许多人认为的那样毫无希望，我预计该公司将在 2024 年实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Government Contract Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>政府合同获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> Moving on, Palantir has been doing extremely well when it comes to securing government contracts. B2G contracts are generally tough to win – given the extensive qualification criteria, long turnaround times and heightened competition – but Palantir seems to have the figured out recipe for success on the government side of its business. For the uninitiated, its revenue from government contracts rose 76% year over year, accounted for about 61% of the company's overall revenue, in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，Palantir 在获得政府合同方面做得非常好。B2G 合同通常很难赢得——考虑到广泛的资格标准、较长的周转时间和加剧的竞争——但 Palantir 似乎已经找到了在政府业务方面取得成功的秘诀。对于外行人来说，第一季度其政府合同收入同比增长76%，约占公司总收入的61%。</blockquote></p><p> Unless the company botches up somewhere, these government agencies are likely going to internally recommend it for varied applications. They won’t have to qualify Palantir time and again for several criteria which could drive these internal cross-agency referrals in a speedy manner and these agencies might even ramp up their spending in pre-existing contracts. So, Palantir just needs to rinse-and-repeat its B2G (Business-to-Government) strategy, and its government revenue could continue growing rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>除非该公司在某个地方出了问题，否则这些政府机构可能会在内部推荐它用于各种应用。他们不必一次又一次地通过 Palantir 的几项标准，这些标准可能会推动这些内部跨机构推荐，这些机构甚至可能会增加在现有合同上的支出。因此，Palantir 只需要清洗并重复其 B2G（企业对政府）战略，其政府收入就可以继续快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has also made steady progress with regards to its government business so far in Q2. Its Q2 is still ongoing, but at the time of this writing, the company has over $36 million worth of new current action obligations from government deals, agreements and contracts, most of which haven’t made the headlines. For the uninitiated, a new deal could be an addition to pre-existing deal, expand the scope of previously agreed upon deliverables, it could be entirely new in nature, have varied execution periods that span from months to years and/or also have a recurring revenue stream attached to it.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，Palantir 在第二季度的政府业务方面也取得了稳步进展。其第二季度仍在进行中，但在撰写本文时，该公司根据政府交易、协议和合同承担了价值超过 3600 万美元的新流动性行动义务，其中大部分尚未成为头条新闻。对于新手来说，新交易可能是对现有交易的补充，扩大了先前商定的交付成果的范围，它可能是全新的，具有从几个月到几年的不同执行期和/或还具有经常性收入流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091203d7b476076ff008ca0c3b0f6ad2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, while there are several variables that prevent us from reliably estimating the near-term revenue impact from these deals, Palantir’s shareholders with a long-term time horizon should feel reassured that their company continues to make steady progress towards growing its government business.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然有几个变量使我们无法可靠地估计这些交易对近期收入的影响，但 Palantir 的长期股东应该可以放心，他们的公司将继续在发展政府业务方面取得稳步进展。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s shares are currently trading at about 43-times its trailing twelve-month sales which is, undeniably, high by conventional standards.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 目前的股价约为过去 12 个月销售额的 43 倍，不可否认，按照传统标准来看，这是一个很高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40584e7d2ca5458e8609338887f80e2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, its rich valuations alone shouldn't be the basis of a bear thesis. Palantir's valuation multiples may be high, but note from the chart above thatits revenue growth rate in Q1 was also higher than most of its peers.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其丰富的估值本身不应成为看跌论点的基础。Palantir 的估值倍数可能很高，但从上图可以看出，第一季度的收入增长率也高于大多数同行。</blockquote></p><p> So, I believe the price premium is justified by the company’s rapid pace of revenue growth (illustrated in the chart above), its qualitative growth catalysts discussed in this article and its relatively secure government revenue stream.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我认为该公司收入增长速度快（如上图所示）、本文讨论的定性增长催化剂以及相对安全的政府收入来源都证明了价格溢价的合理性。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Keeping these factors in mind, investors with a multi-year time horizon may want to increase exposure to Palantir on potential price corrections. The stock is likely to reach new highs as its growth catalysts eventually materialize, and as the company approaches profitability, in the next 2 to 3 years. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这些因素，具有多年投资期限的投资者可能希望在潜在价格调整时增加对 Palantir 的投资。随着其增长催化剂最终实现以及公司接近盈利，该股可能会在未来 2 到 3 年内创下新高。祝你好运!</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435125-palantir-the-untold-truth\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435125-palantir-the-untold-truth","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180977741","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base and its bleak margin profile.\nBut the company is actually doing well in terms of customer growth, margin expansion and government order wins.\nInvestors with a long-term time horizon may want to accumulate its shares on potential price corrections.\n\nC Flanigan/Getty Images Entertainment\nPalantir (PLTR) is lately being lambasted in various investing forums on speculative grounds such as how its growth momentum could fizzle out soon, how its margin profile is dragging the company down and that the stock doesn’t justify its price premium. But the company isn't as bad. On the contrary, the data analytics firm is performing well on several parameters – such as customer growth, government order wins and margin expansion – which should come as an encouraging sign for its long-side investors and dispel such speculative bearish narratives. Let's take a closer look.\nRapid Customer Growth\nBears have been criticizing Palantir for its bespoke functionality ever since it went public. Its platforms involve customization for various workflows and customer needs, so bears feel the company faces difficulty in onboarding several customers at once and as a result, it’s bottlenecked and its growth momentum can fizzle out. While I respect contrasting opinions, fact of the matter here is that Palantir doesn’t seem to be struggling with customer adds.\nThe company’s customer count increased by over 7% on a sequential basis in Q1 2021. Our database at Business Quant reveals that this pace of growth is actually higher than that reported by some of the other renowned names in the software application and infrastructure industries. This immediately dispels the narrative that Palantir faces difficulty in scaling customer relationships due to its bespoke features, whenit's performing better than peers in this regard.\n\nThe company’s elevated pace of customer additions shouldn’t come as a surprise to my readers. I’ve explained in my prior articles how the company is undertaking a slew of measures – such as adopting a customer-friendly payment model, ramping up its sales function and introducing free trials for major enterprises – to expand its customer base. These initiatives were announced only a few months ago, and will continue for the rest of FY21, so I expect Palantir to continue adding customers at a rapid rate in near future as well.\nHaving said that, there’s no denying that Palantir’s customer base isn’t as sizable as some of its peers, but that’s also where its growth opportunity lies. It suggests that Palantir is yet to penetrate its target market in a big way and that its lower base effect makes it easier for the company to continue expanding its customer base at elevated rates.\nThere are broadly four takeaways here, which, by the way, the bears seem to discount time and again. These are:\n\nPalantir's target market isn't saturated yet and it can still find new customers with ease,\nThese new customers are bound to lift the company’s revenue higher in 2021 by a varied magnitude, depending on their contract value,\nIf these are recurring contracts, then that’s going to boost Palantir’s future revenue projections and guidance,\nIf these new customers eventually ramp up their spend, then that's also going to boost Palantir’s future cash flows.\n\nRegarding the last bullet, it's worth noting that Palantir’s top 20 customers, in general, have significantly ramped up their spending on the company’s data analytics platforms in each of the last 10 years. This new batch of customers, and any future customer additions, could also go through this spending expansion phase in the subsequent years and gradually boost Palantir’s revenue along the way. So, we must give due importance to its rapid pace of customer adds and not take it lightly.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nMargin Expansion\nAnother issue with assessing Palantir’s growth prospects is that the company isn’t profitable yet. While some feel the stock will remain subdued due to its weak margin profile, others feel it can collapse down to single digits. The frustration is understandable given the company posted a net loss of $0.07 per share in its most recent quarter.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nBut I wanted to see for myself if Palantir’s margin profile was actually as hopeless as many believe it to be. So, I compiled the margin profiles for about 90 software infrastructure stocks listed on US bourses. There's no denying that the company's net profit margin is in the red. But what's surprising here is that Palantir had actually posted one of the highest sequential net margin expansions in Q1, in its peer group. To the best of my knowledge, this aspect of Palantir’s business hasn’t been discussed on any investing forum.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nThe company may not have been profitable so far, but that doesn’t mean it will remain unprofitable in the future as well. If its recent pace of margin expansion continues in the next several quarters, the company could become profitable in the next 2 to 3 years without sacrificing on its growth momentum. So, let’s give credit where it’s due. The community of professional analysts also shares this line of thought and projects Palantir's margin profile to materially improve going forward.\n(Source:MarketScreener)\nBesides, with public shareholding involved now, its management is likely to be under constant pressure to deliver breakneck revenue growth rates, and/or achieve profitability in the near future, or risk being voted out of their positions. This pressure may not have been as intense prior to its direct listing, when fewer shareholders were involved. So, overall, I don’t think Palantir’s margin profile is hopeless as many believe it to be, and I expect the company to become profitable by 2024.\nGovernment Contract Wins\nMoving on, Palantir has been doing extremely well when it comes to securing government contracts. B2G contracts are generally tough to win – given the extensive qualification criteria, long turnaround times and heightened competition – but Palantir seems to have the figured out recipe for success on the government side of its business. For the uninitiated, its revenue from government contracts rose 76% year over year, accounted for about 61% of the company's overall revenue, in Q1.\nUnless the company botches up somewhere, these government agencies are likely going to internally recommend it for varied applications. They won’t have to qualify Palantir time and again for several criteria which could drive these internal cross-agency referrals in a speedy manner and these agencies might even ramp up their spending in pre-existing contracts. So, Palantir just needs to rinse-and-repeat its B2G (Business-to-Government) strategy, and its government revenue could continue growing rapidly.\nPalantir has also made steady progress with regards to its government business so far in Q2. Its Q2 is still ongoing, but at the time of this writing, the company has over $36 million worth of new current action obligations from government deals, agreements and contracts, most of which haven’t made the headlines. For the uninitiated, a new deal could be an addition to pre-existing deal, expand the scope of previously agreed upon deliverables, it could be entirely new in nature, have varied execution periods that span from months to years and/or also have a recurring revenue stream attached to it.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nSo, while there are several variables that prevent us from reliably estimating the near-term revenue impact from these deals, Palantir’s shareholders with a long-term time horizon should feel reassured that their company continues to make steady progress towards growing its government business.\nFinal Thoughts\nPalantir’s shares are currently trading at about 43-times its trailing twelve-month sales which is, undeniably, high by conventional standards.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nHowever, its rich valuations alone shouldn't be the basis of a bear thesis. Palantir's valuation multiples may be high, but note from the chart above thatits revenue growth rate in Q1 was also higher than most of its peers.\nSo, I believe the price premium is justified by the company’s rapid pace of revenue growth (illustrated in the chart above), its qualitative growth catalysts discussed in this article and its relatively secure government revenue stream.\nKeeping these factors in mind, investors with a multi-year time horizon may want to increase exposure to Palantir on potential price corrections. The stock is likely to reach new highs as its growth catalysts eventually materialize, and as the company approaches profitability, in the next 2 to 3 years. Good Luck!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2929,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168432545,"gmtCreate":1623980491787,"gmtModify":1634024814831,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"i believe in BABA! good things take time!","listText":"i believe in BABA! good things take time!","text":"i believe in BABA! good things take time!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168432545","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中拥有多种增长动力，这使得其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会随着潜在的双底价格行动信号而转向看涨。</li><li>我们将讨论公司的多重增长动力，让投资者自己判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永元/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自 11 月 20 日初蚂蚁金服 IPO 被撤销以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价经历了可怕的 8 个月，该股在低迷中萎靡不振，较高点下跌了 34%。在考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显，阿里巴巴具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且在其关键的 50W 均线上总体上得到了良好的支撑。在过去 4 年中，它唯一一次失去关键的 50W MA 支撑位是在 2018 年熊市期间，当时阿里巴巴下跌了约 40%，但仍在重要的 200W MA 上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是 “最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA以上得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像 2018 年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平可能是一个可能的技术性买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩张的增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度电子商务收入。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV从1.68吨人民币增长到7.49吨人民币，仅用了7年时间，复合年增长率达到了23.8%，增长率着实惊人。我们还看到其 GMV 增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从 76.7 亿元人民币增长到 473.68 亿元人民币，过去 10 年的复合年增长率为 51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然小得多，但在过去10年中，其CAGR仍以30.42%的速度增长，这绝不是缓慢的。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度预计将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为 12.4%，从 2021 年的 13.8 万亿元人民币（相当于 2.16 万亿元人民币）下降到 2024 年的 19.6 万亿元人民币（相当于 3.06 万亿元人民币），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将中国市场的增长率和规模与美国电子商务市场进行比较时，我们可以看到它们在规模和增长率上的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场从 2021 年到 2025 年的复合年增长率预计仅为 4.67%，大大低于中国的 12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约 5630 亿美元，相当于届时中国市场预期价值的 18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自其快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克股票代码：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经经营着一项利润更高的业务（息税前税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计将继续实现强劲的盈利能力展望未来，这将为该公司提供巨大的灵活性，以与京东和PDD正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到了其 SG&amp;A 中反映的 27.82 亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率向下倾斜。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个重要举措是公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是 PDD 的主要电子商务战略，PDD 在最近一个季度共获得了 8.23 亿 AAC，而阿里巴巴的 8.91 亿 AAC。考虑到 2017 年第二季度 PDD 的 AAC 数量仅为 1 亿，而同期阿里巴巴的 AAC 数量为 4.66 亿，PDD 的 AAC 增长确实惊人。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转移到社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出它的大枪（它已经拥有）来与PDD和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到 2022 年 1020 亿元人民币的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴 21 财年中国商业收入的 21.5% 左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过 2019 年至 2022 年 3 年间 44.22% 的快速复合年增长率。虽然这个市场还比较小，但阿里巴巴不能让这个市场目前的领头羊：PDD在众人不知情的情况下，如此轻易地占据主导地位，吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取其在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止PDD扩大其领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中我们可以观察到，PDD 预计将在未来几年继续快速增长其收入，尽管预计随后将恢复正常。更重要的是，PDD 预计未来还将不断提高其息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力。这表明，社区市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势加以利用，才能在游戏初期否认 PDD 无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公共云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；通道</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：CAICT；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公共云市场占有 40% 的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管阿里巴巴处于领先地位，但阿里巴巴仍处于大量投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从 2017 年的 264.8 亿元人民币增长到 2023 年的 2307.4 亿元人民币，复合年增长率将达到 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的惊人增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤为明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从 2017 年的 1450 亿美元增长到 2022 年的 3970 亿美元，复合年增长率将达到 22.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。资料来源：CnTechPost；高德纳</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在 2020 年以 9.5% 的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）GCP 的领先优势，我并不感到惊讶。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场的明显领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。虽然阿里巴巴的云业务尚未实现息税前利润（21 财年息税前利润率：-15%，20 财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的 GCP 也没有实现盈利（20 财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19 财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务，预计阿里巴巴将在这些地区拥有更强大的领导地位，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常有说服力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/息税前利润3年范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>电动汽车/前轮驱动息税前利润和电动汽车/前轮驱动转速趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到阿里巴巴的 TEV / EBIT 历史范围（3 年平均值为 33.54 倍）时，阿里巴巴的 EV / Fwd EBIT 趋势无疑意味着该股被严重低估，因为阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍有望快速增长。不过，由于我们希望更清楚地了解阿里巴巴的息税前利润是如何估值的，因此我们认为，如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，这将是有用的，如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史息税前利润和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司的一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的电动汽车/息税前利润看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴在区间中点的公允价值区间为 294.98 美元，基于当前 210 美元的股价，这代表着 40.5% 的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着 Mr.市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场计划和不断增长的阿里云部门等仍有很大的潜在上涨空间。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因仅仅是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该认识到这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。关键在于，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有巨大的影响力，而这些行为和行动有时在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能因此大幅打折阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长征程中的一个昙花一现，那么你一定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续交付稳健的业绩，证明了该公司良好执行的强大能力。由于公司将继续在一个拥有众多增长动力的市场中运营，这些增长动力有望推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现目前的估值极具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中拥有多种增长动力，这使得其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会随着潜在的双底价格行动信号而转向看涨。</li><li>我们将讨论公司的多重增长动力，让投资者自己判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永元/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自 11 月 20 日初蚂蚁金服 IPO 被撤销以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价经历了可怕的 8 个月，该股在低迷中萎靡不振，较高点下跌了 34%。在考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显，阿里巴巴具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且在其关键的 50W 均线上总体上得到了良好的支撑。在过去 4 年中，它唯一一次失去关键的 50W MA 支撑位是在 2018 年熊市期间，当时阿里巴巴下跌了约 40%，但仍在重要的 200W MA 上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是 “最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA以上得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像 2018 年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平可能是一个可能的技术性买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩张的增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度电子商务收入。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV从1.68吨人民币增长到7.49吨人民币，仅用了7年时间，复合年增长率达到了23.8%，增长率着实惊人。我们还看到其 GMV 增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从 76.7 亿元人民币增长到 473.68 亿元人民币，过去 10 年的复合年增长率为 51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然小得多，但在过去10年中，其CAGR仍以30.42%的速度增长，这绝不是缓慢的。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度预计将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为 12.4%，从 2021 年的 13.8 万亿元人民币（相当于 2.16 万亿元人民币）下降到 2024 年的 19.6 万亿元人民币（相当于 3.06 万亿元人民币），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将中国市场的增长率和规模与美国电子商务市场进行比较时，我们可以看到它们在规模和增长率上的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场从 2021 年到 2025 年的复合年增长率预计仅为 4.67%，大大低于中国的 12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约 5630 亿美元，相当于届时中国市场预期价值的 18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自其快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克股票代码：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经经营着一项利润更高的业务（息税前税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计将继续实现强劲的盈利能力展望未来，这将为该公司提供巨大的灵活性，以与京东和PDD正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到了其 SG&amp;A 中反映的 27.82 亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率向下倾斜。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个重要举措是公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是 PDD 的主要电子商务战略，PDD 在最近一个季度共获得了 8.23 亿 AAC，而阿里巴巴的 8.91 亿 AAC。考虑到 2017 年第二季度 PDD 的 AAC 数量仅为 1 亿，而同期阿里巴巴的 AAC 数量为 4.66 亿，PDD 的 AAC 增长确实惊人。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转移到社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出它的大枪（它已经拥有）来与PDD和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到 2022 年 1020 亿元人民币的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴 21 财年中国商业收入的 21.5% 左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过 2019 年至 2022 年 3 年间 44.22% 的快速复合年增长率。虽然这个市场还比较小，但阿里巴巴不能让这个市场目前的领头羊：PDD在众人不知情的情况下，如此轻易地占据主导地位，吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取其在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止PDD扩大其领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中我们可以观察到，PDD 预计将在未来几年继续快速增长其收入，尽管预计随后将恢复正常。更重要的是，PDD 预计未来还将不断提高其息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力。这表明，社区市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势加以利用，才能在游戏初期否认 PDD 无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公共云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；通道</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：CAICT；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公共云市场占有 40% 的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管阿里巴巴处于领先地位，但阿里巴巴仍处于大量投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从 2017 年的 264.8 亿元人民币增长到 2023 年的 2307.4 亿元人民币，复合年增长率将达到 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的惊人增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤为明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从 2017 年的 1450 亿美元增长到 2022 年的 3970 亿美元，复合年增长率将达到 22.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。资料来源：CnTechPost；高德纳</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在 2020 年以 9.5% 的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）GCP 的领先优势，我并不感到惊讶。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场的明显领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。虽然阿里巴巴的云业务尚未实现息税前利润（21 财年息税前利润率：-15%，20 财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的 GCP 也没有实现盈利（20 财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19 财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务，预计阿里巴巴将在这些地区拥有更强大的领导地位，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常有说服力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/息税前利润3年范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>电动汽车/前轮驱动息税前利润和电动汽车/前轮驱动转速趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到阿里巴巴的 TEV / EBIT 历史范围（3 年平均值为 33.54 倍）时，阿里巴巴的 EV / Fwd EBIT 趋势无疑意味着该股被严重低估，因为阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍有望快速增长。不过，由于我们希望更清楚地了解阿里巴巴的息税前利润是如何估值的，因此我们认为，如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，这将是有用的，如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史息税前利润和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司的一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的电动汽车/息税前利润看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴在区间中点的公允价值区间为 294.98 美元，基于当前 210 美元的股价，这代表着 40.5% 的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着 Mr.市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场计划和不断增长的阿里云部门等仍有很大的潜在上涨空间。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因仅仅是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该认识到这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。关键在于，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有巨大的影响力，而这些行为和行动有时在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能因此大幅打折阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长征程中的一个昙花一现，那么你一定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续交付稳健的业绩，证明了该公司良好执行的强大能力。由于公司将继续在一个拥有众多增长动力的市场中运营，这些增长动力有望推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现目前的估值极具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168665944,"gmtCreate":1623974330388,"gmtModify":1634025052866,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"let’s go amc&nbsp;","listText":"let’s go amc&nbsp;","text":"let’s go amc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168665944","repostId":"1143254300","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187904596,"gmtCreate":1623733164815,"gmtModify":1634029381646,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nio , you’re doing great, goodjob on being so innovative !!!","listText":"nio , you’re doing great, goodjob on being so innovative !!!","text":"nio , you’re doing great, goodjob on being so innovative !!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187904596","repostId":"1140305126","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187052778,"gmtCreate":1623731780694,"gmtModify":1634029409880,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"long term hold 😎","listText":"long term hold 😎","text":"long term hold 😎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187052778","repostId":"1109511555","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187092269,"gmtCreate":1623728928951,"gmtModify":1634029455845,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"dont let me down appl! u can do it !!!","listText":"dont let me down appl! u can do it !!!","text":"dont let me down appl! u can do it !!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187092269","repostId":"1167720481","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1167720481","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623723356,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1167720481?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股票还是苹果，我每次都选择苹果</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167720481","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.So what does AAPL do with all of the cash","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.</li>  <li>Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.</li>  <li>Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.</li>  <li>Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3b80a3353ef82f618688f13f74658\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在2021年一直是一项负面投资，而模因股票却爆炸式增长，这是荒谬的。</li><li>投资者有机会在苹果下一次上涨之前购买它，而注意力已转移到追逐模因股票的快速收益。</li><li>苹果预计 2021 财年收入将超过 3000 亿美元，净利润将达到 750 亿美元。</li><li>最终，苹果将被重新投入到党中，他们的数字将被庆祝。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers&nbsp;Cathie Wood&nbsp;of&nbsp;Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in&nbsp;Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，苹果（AAPL）已成为负回报投资，其表现逊于SPDR标普500信托ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）超过15%。2021 年 5 月，Ark Invest 最热门的基金经理之一 Cathie Wood 从 Ark Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) 中出售了近 300,000 股 AAPL 股票。据报道，ARK 一度减持 AAPL 股份，以增加其在 Coinbase (COIN) 和 DraftKings (DKNG) 的头寸。one’s ARK 等主动管理基金每天监督股票的买卖，并可能使用 AAPL 作为现金的替代品。AAPL 的评论褒贬不一，一些人认为其最好的日子还在后头，而另一些人则认为辉煌的日子将无法重现。我认为市场正在给投资者一个机会，因为苹果公司应该会在 2021 年下半年摆脱横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> The market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation &amp; gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.</p><p><blockquote>市场对 AAPL 在第一季度和第二季度的井喷并没有留下深刻印象。AAPL 股价并没有在基本面支撑下上涨，而是一直在下跌。作为一名 AAPL 多头，令人困惑的是，当 AAPL 等公司正在为其有史以来最好的一年奠定基础时，如此多的注意力却集中在模因股票上，而不是像 AAPL 这样的公司上。在阅读了最近关于模因股票的文章的评论后，我写道，然后回顾一些AAPL文章的评论部分，我只是不明白心态是如何转向彻底的投机和赌博而不是投资的。在本财年的前两个季度，AAPL 的每股收益为 3.08 美元，而整个 2020 财年的每股收益为 3.31 美元。AAPL 在许多指标上都在巩固其有史以来最好的一年的基础，但市场并没有留下深刻印象。我相信2021年下半年将会有令人印象深刻的烟火，随着第三季度和第四季度数据的公布，耐心的股东将会得到回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86cb02096dfa9c6da05e350f274aa64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果相信这是市场上最好的投资，并说到做到</b></blockquote></p><p> So what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&amp;D]. In&nbsp;2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&amp;D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.</p><p><blockquote>那么，AAPL如何处理它产生的所有现金呢？首先，他们每年花费数百亿美元来发展业务，同时投资于研发[R&amp;D]。2020年，AAPL在创收成本上花费了1695.6亿美元。他们的劳动成果可以从他们的产品以及他们最新的业务部门（包括服务和可穿戴设备、家居和配件）的增长速度中看出。AAPL在2020年拨款187.5亿美元用于研发，为他们心爱的产品带来了进步。AAPL拥有类似于邪教心态的客户群的原因之一是因为AAPL没有停止创新。他们总是站在技术如何改善个人日常生活的最前沿。</blockquote></p><p> So what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's&nbsp;board&nbsp;authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost&nbsp;$23 billion&nbsp;in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.</p><p><blockquote>那么AAPL的业务费用兑现后剩余的现金怎么办呢？AAPL 押注于自己，并将其股票视为一项投资。自2012财年以来，AAPL已回购了4217亿美元的自有股票。2021年，AAPL回购了430亿美元的股票，表明高层领导认为拥有AAPL股票具有巨大的价值。我记得当内部人士购买他们公司股票时，每个人都很兴奋的日子。对于 AAPL 来说，回购股票只是一个普通的星期一。过去十年，苹果公司回购的股票数量超过了大多数公司的市值增长。AAPL 董事会授权向其现有股票回购计划追加 900 亿美元，AAPL 在 2021 年第二季度向股东返还了近 230 亿美元的资本，没有比这更乐观的了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbaf61374104ed17e51201af591ab7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Meme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票与苹果以及这个市场的疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME &amp; AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站 (GME) 和AMC院线控股公司 (AMC) 在 2021 年上半年的股价升值幅度大幅削弱了 AAPL。不管GME和AMC为什么上涨，事实是GME的回报率超过了1,100%，AMC的回报率超过了2,000%。任何骑过 GME 或 AMC 的人，我都向你们表示祝贺并脱帽致敬。由于 AAPL 今年表现不佳，市场受到了宏伟错觉的推动，而 GME 和 AMC 却绝对上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85258331453c02381346f8b6c676cec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through&nbsp;AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个月AMC发生了什么变化？我可以告诉你，一件事都没有。AMC仍然是一家亏损的公司，几乎不赚钱。我明白投资像 AMC 这样的公司可以由于波动性而产生巨大回报，我并没有否认这一点。如果你能在上面赚钱，无论如何，不要让任何人挡你的路，但要小心。当你通读AMC的损益表时，他们的净利润从未超过4亿美元。在过去十年中，AMC最赚钱的一年是2013年，净利润为3.644亿美元。2019 年，由于 COVID 的影响为零，AMC 创造了 54.7 亿美元的收入，但甚至无法盈利，因为他们亏损了 1.491 亿美元。AMC 上一季度报告显示其资产负债表上的股本为 -23 亿美元。现实情况是，AMC 可以发行额外股票并出售以筹集资金。这将使 AMC 受益，改善其资产负债表并增加手头现金。人们似乎不明白，当一家公司发行更多股票时，最初的一批股票会因为额外的供应量而被稀释，变得一文不值。AMC可以发行股票并加强其资产负债表，但这并不能解决其利润问题。AAPL 每个季度向股东支付的股息比 AMC 过去十年产生的利润还要多，但 AMC 是产生更大回报的股票。</blockquote></p><p> When investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my&nbsp;AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&amp;P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN)&nbsp;has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and&nbsp;Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.</p><p><blockquote>当投资者购买 AMC 股票时，他们购买的是一家每股收益为负的公司。AMC 的市盈率无法在过去 12 个月或远期基础上衡量，但投资者愿意为不存在的收益买单。在我的AMC文章的评论中，人们说基本面并不重要。我知道 AMC 一直是一项技术性交易，但这并不能改变投资者为负收益公司买单的现实。目前，标准普尔的平均市盈率为45.02。如果我使用 AAPL 在 2021 财年前 6 个月产生的每股收益 3.08 美元，他们的市盈率将为 40.55。对于 TTM，AAPL 的每股收益为 4.49 美元，这使得他们的市盈率降至 28.09。目前，投资者为 AAPL 每产生 1 美元的收益支付 28.09 美元，这对于科技行业来说是较低的。亚马逊 (AMZN) 的市盈率为 62.44，微软 (MSFT) 为 34.93，谷歌 (GOOGL) 为 32.05。看涨期权我很守旧，但我喜欢投资盈利的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e06d9bc68454731c984429111ff056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"661\"><span>(Source:multpl.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：multpl.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Laying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阐述苹果的牛市理由以及为什么突破上行是不可避免的</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 拥有一批狂热的追随者，他们被其产品和服务所吸引。2021年前6个月，AAPLhas实现收入2010.2亿美元，毛利润824.1亿美元，净利润523.9亿美元。2021年，AAPL已经创造了2020年总收入的73.23%（2010.2亿美元），然后是2020年总收入的78.51%（824.1亿美元）和2020年总净收入的91.25%（523.9亿美元）。AAPL 有望打破其之前的记录，除非发生深不可测的事情，否则 2021 年将是 AAPL 有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> So the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when&nbsp;AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.</p><p><blockquote>因此，真正的问题是，是什么导致了 AAPL 财务状况的飙升，以及它们是否可持续？部分原因是苹果公司的硬件销量从 iPhone 12 到 iPad 都有所增长。可以说，由于在家工作或远程学习，许多人在疫情期间需要升级他们的技术，但这种逻辑不能用于2021年。4月底，苹果公司公布第二季度业绩时，其iPhone销售额超出预期71.4亿美元，Mac销售额超出预期22亿美元，iPad销售额超出预期20.1亿美元。这些数字是在一年后公布的，虽然苹果公司发布的第一款 5G 手机 iPhone 12 预计会带来顺风，但我相信疫情将社会推向了一个更加重视技术的地方。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In&nbsp;2018 Services&nbsp;generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.</p><p><blockquote>我相信 AAPL 将继续看到强劲的硬件销售，但这只是难题的一部分。服务、可穿戴设备、家居和配件正在成为 AAPL 财务指标的重要组成部分。2018年，服务业创造了397.5亿美元的收入。2019年，服务业增长了65.4亿美元（16.46%），年收入为462.9亿美元。2020年，服务业增长了74.8亿美元（16.15%），收入总计537.7亿美元。2020年前6个月，服务业已经创造了326.6亿美元的收入，占2020年总收入的60.75%。服务持续增长，为 AAPL 创造了一个真正的经常性收入业务部门。服务之美在于AAPL销售的每一件硬件；每个月都有机会通过服务产生额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Services are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>随着 AAPL 实现收入结构多元化，不再仅仅依赖实体产品，服务正在成为 AAPL 的本垒打。截至 2020 财年末，Services 在短短 4 年内年收入增加了 294.2 亿美元（120.83%）。2021年前6个月，服务业创造了326.6亿美元，占2020年年收入的60%。AAPL 有望在 2021 财年实现 600 亿美元的服务收入。展望未来，在不久的将来，服务业可能会产生 1000 亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f044f79f7525038fb94ed27b6a92209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Wearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.</p><p><blockquote>家庭可穿戴设备和配件继续追随 Service 的脚步，因为它已成为比 iPad 和 Mac 更大的收入领域。随着苹果观察的推出，这一类别已经从2016年的111.3亿美元增长到2020年的306.2亿美元。在4个财年中，可穿戴家居和配件的收入增加了244.8亿美元（175.06%），并且增长不断扩大。2021年前6个月，家用可穿戴设备和配件创造了208.1亿美元的收入，占2020年总收入的67.95%。AAPL 肯定有望在 2021 财年从家用可穿戴设备和配件中产生超过 350 亿美元的收入。未来几年，AAPL 有望从家用可穿戴设备和配件中产生 500 亿美元的年收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7071ec652302c6cab585fef4c408d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.</p><p><blockquote>到 2025 财年末，服务很有可能产生超过 780 亿美元的收入，如果家用可穿戴设备和配件都以 10% 的速度增长，则年收入可能超过 440 亿美元。这两个类别的总收入有望超过 1000 亿美元，到 2020 年代末，每年可能会增长到 1500 亿美元。我感到震惊的是，投资者没有大量涌入 AAPL，更可笑的是，对 AAPL 数据的强调没有得到更详细的讨论。当服务收入达到 1000 亿美元，家用可穿戴设备和配件收入达到 500 亿美元时，AAPL 的未来价值是多少？在过去的十年里，AAPL不断创新和改变技术的使用方式，我拒绝相信他们最好的日子已经过去。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cd231b75d9f875329f6713debe846b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票给一些投资者带来了极大的兴奋，而他们却让另一大群人摇头。除了赌博之外，我无法理解当你可以购买出售的 AAPL 股票时，为什么人们还要投资 AMC。苹果公司本应暴涨，但其最近两个季度的井喷并没有改变局面。我相信一旦第三季度数据公布，情况就会有所不同。我们将再次发现，AAPL 继续购买数十亿美元的股票，同时报告称，在 9 个月内，他们产生的净利润超过了 2020 年全年。在运营的前6个月，AAPL创造了2010.2亿美元的收入和523.9亿美元的净利润，同时返还了532亿美元的回购和股息。投资者有机会在下一次上涨之前购买更多 AAPL。我是 AAPL 的股东，我计划在第三季度财报公布之前购买更多股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股票还是苹果，我每次都选择苹果</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time<blockquote>苹果：模因股票还是苹果，我每次都选择苹果</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 10:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.</li>  <li>Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.</li>  <li>Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.</li>  <li>Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3b80a3353ef82f618688f13f74658\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在2021年一直是一项负面投资，而模因股票却爆炸式增长，这是荒谬的。</li><li>投资者有机会在苹果下一次上涨之前购买它，而注意力已转移到追逐模因股票的快速收益。</li><li>苹果预计 2021 财年收入将超过 3000 亿美元，净利润将达到 750 亿美元。</li><li>最终，苹果将被重新投入到党中，他们的数字将被庆祝。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers&nbsp;Cathie Wood&nbsp;of&nbsp;Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in&nbsp;Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，苹果（AAPL）已成为负回报投资，其表现逊于SPDR标普500信托ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）超过15%。2021 年 5 月，Ark Invest 最热门的基金经理之一 Cathie Wood 从 Ark Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) 中出售了近 300,000 股 AAPL 股票。据报道，ARK 一度减持 AAPL 股份，以增加其在 Coinbase (COIN) 和 DraftKings (DKNG) 的头寸。one’s ARK 等主动管理基金每天监督股票的买卖，并可能使用 AAPL 作为现金的替代品。AAPL 的评论褒贬不一，一些人认为其最好的日子还在后头，而另一些人则认为辉煌的日子将无法重现。我认为市场正在给投资者一个机会，因为苹果公司应该会在 2021 年下半年摆脱横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> The market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation &amp; gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.</p><p><blockquote>市场对 AAPL 在第一季度和第二季度的井喷并没有留下深刻印象。AAPL 股价并没有在基本面支撑下上涨，而是一直在下跌。作为一名 AAPL 多头，令人困惑的是，当 AAPL 等公司正在为其有史以来最好的一年奠定基础时，如此多的注意力却集中在模因股票上，而不是像 AAPL 这样的公司上。在阅读了最近关于模因股票的文章的评论后，我写道，然后回顾一些AAPL文章的评论部分，我只是不明白心态是如何转向彻底的投机和赌博而不是投资的。在本财年的前两个季度，AAPL 的每股收益为 3.08 美元，而整个 2020 财年的每股收益为 3.31 美元。AAPL 在许多指标上都在巩固其有史以来最好的一年的基础，但市场并没有留下深刻印象。我相信2021年下半年将会有令人印象深刻的烟火，随着第三季度和第四季度数据的公布，耐心的股东将会得到回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86cb02096dfa9c6da05e350f274aa64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果相信这是市场上最好的投资，并说到做到</b></blockquote></p><p> So what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&amp;D]. In&nbsp;2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&amp;D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.</p><p><blockquote>那么，AAPL如何处理它产生的所有现金呢？首先，他们每年花费数百亿美元来发展业务，同时投资于研发[R&amp;D]。2020年，AAPL在创收成本上花费了1695.6亿美元。他们的劳动成果可以从他们的产品以及他们最新的业务部门（包括服务和可穿戴设备、家居和配件）的增长速度中看出。AAPL在2020年拨款187.5亿美元用于研发，为他们心爱的产品带来了进步。AAPL拥有类似于邪教心态的客户群的原因之一是因为AAPL没有停止创新。他们总是站在技术如何改善个人日常生活的最前沿。</blockquote></p><p> So what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's&nbsp;board&nbsp;authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost&nbsp;$23 billion&nbsp;in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.</p><p><blockquote>那么AAPL的业务费用兑现后剩余的现金怎么办呢？AAPL 押注于自己，并将其股票视为一项投资。自2012财年以来，AAPL已回购了4217亿美元的自有股票。2021年，AAPL回购了430亿美元的股票，表明高层领导认为拥有AAPL股票具有巨大的价值。我记得当内部人士购买他们公司股票时，每个人都很兴奋的日子。对于 AAPL 来说，回购股票只是一个普通的星期一。过去十年，苹果公司回购的股票数量超过了大多数公司的市值增长。AAPL 董事会授权向其现有股票回购计划追加 900 亿美元，AAPL 在 2021 年第二季度向股东返还了近 230 亿美元的资本，没有比这更乐观的了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbaf61374104ed17e51201af591ab7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Meme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票与苹果以及这个市场的疯狂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME &amp; AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站 (GME) 和AMC院线控股公司 (AMC) 在 2021 年上半年的股价升值幅度大幅削弱了 AAPL。不管GME和AMC为什么上涨，事实是GME的回报率超过了1,100%，AMC的回报率超过了2,000%。任何骑过 GME 或 AMC 的人，我都向你们表示祝贺并脱帽致敬。由于 AAPL 今年表现不佳，市场受到了宏伟错觉的推动，而 GME 和 AMC 却绝对上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85258331453c02381346f8b6c676cec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through&nbsp;AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个月AMC发生了什么变化？我可以告诉你，一件事都没有。AMC仍然是一家亏损的公司，几乎不赚钱。我明白投资像 AMC 这样的公司可以由于波动性而产生巨大回报，我并没有否认这一点。如果你能在上面赚钱，无论如何，不要让任何人挡你的路，但要小心。当你通读AMC的损益表时，他们的净利润从未超过4亿美元。在过去十年中，AMC最赚钱的一年是2013年，净利润为3.644亿美元。2019 年，由于 COVID 的影响为零，AMC 创造了 54.7 亿美元的收入，但甚至无法盈利，因为他们亏损了 1.491 亿美元。AMC 上一季度报告显示其资产负债表上的股本为 -23 亿美元。现实情况是，AMC 可以发行额外股票并出售以筹集资金。这将使 AMC 受益，改善其资产负债表并增加手头现金。人们似乎不明白，当一家公司发行更多股票时，最初的一批股票会因为额外的供应量而被稀释，变得一文不值。AMC可以发行股票并加强其资产负债表，但这并不能解决其利润问题。AAPL 每个季度向股东支付的股息比 AMC 过去十年产生的利润还要多，但 AMC 是产生更大回报的股票。</blockquote></p><p> When investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my&nbsp;AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&amp;P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN)&nbsp;has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and&nbsp;Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.</p><p><blockquote>当投资者购买 AMC 股票时，他们购买的是一家每股收益为负的公司。AMC 的市盈率无法在过去 12 个月或远期基础上衡量，但投资者愿意为不存在的收益买单。在我的AMC文章的评论中，人们说基本面并不重要。我知道 AMC 一直是一项技术性交易，但这并不能改变投资者为负收益公司买单的现实。目前，标准普尔的平均市盈率为45.02。如果我使用 AAPL 在 2021 财年前 6 个月产生的每股收益 3.08 美元，他们的市盈率将为 40.55。对于 TTM，AAPL 的每股收益为 4.49 美元，这使得他们的市盈率降至 28.09。目前，投资者为 AAPL 每产生 1 美元的收益支付 28.09 美元，这对于科技行业来说是较低的。亚马逊 (AMZN) 的市盈率为 62.44，微软 (MSFT) 为 34.93，谷歌 (GOOGL) 为 32.05。看涨期权我很守旧，但我喜欢投资盈利的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e06d9bc68454731c984429111ff056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"661\"><span>(Source:multpl.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：multpl.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Laying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阐述苹果的牛市理由以及为什么突破上行是不可避免的</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 拥有一批狂热的追随者，他们被其产品和服务所吸引。2021年前6个月，AAPLhas实现收入2010.2亿美元，毛利润824.1亿美元，净利润523.9亿美元。2021年，AAPL已经创造了2020年总收入的73.23%（2010.2亿美元），然后是2020年总收入的78.51%（824.1亿美元）和2020年总净收入的91.25%（523.9亿美元）。AAPL 有望打破其之前的记录，除非发生深不可测的事情，否则 2021 年将是 AAPL 有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> So the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when&nbsp;AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.</p><p><blockquote>因此，真正的问题是，是什么导致了 AAPL 财务状况的飙升，以及它们是否可持续？部分原因是苹果公司的硬件销量从 iPhone 12 到 iPad 都有所增长。可以说，由于在家工作或远程学习，许多人在疫情期间需要升级他们的技术，但这种逻辑不能用于2021年。4月底，苹果公司公布第二季度业绩时，其iPhone销售额超出预期71.4亿美元，Mac销售额超出预期22亿美元，iPad销售额超出预期20.1亿美元。这些数字是在一年后公布的，虽然苹果公司发布的第一款 5G 手机 iPhone 12 预计会带来顺风，但我相信疫情将社会推向了一个更加重视技术的地方。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In&nbsp;2018 Services&nbsp;generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.</p><p><blockquote>我相信 AAPL 将继续看到强劲的硬件销售，但这只是难题的一部分。服务、可穿戴设备、家居和配件正在成为 AAPL 财务指标的重要组成部分。2018年，服务业创造了397.5亿美元的收入。2019年，服务业增长了65.4亿美元（16.46%），年收入为462.9亿美元。2020年，服务业增长了74.8亿美元（16.15%），收入总计537.7亿美元。2020年前6个月，服务业已经创造了326.6亿美元的收入，占2020年总收入的60.75%。服务持续增长，为 AAPL 创造了一个真正的经常性收入业务部门。服务之美在于AAPL销售的每一件硬件；每个月都有机会通过服务产生额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Services are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.</p><p><blockquote>随着 AAPL 实现收入结构多元化，不再仅仅依赖实体产品，服务正在成为 AAPL 的本垒打。截至 2020 财年末，Services 在短短 4 年内年收入增加了 294.2 亿美元（120.83%）。2021年前6个月，服务业创造了326.6亿美元，占2020年年收入的60%。AAPL 有望在 2021 财年实现 600 亿美元的服务收入。展望未来，在不久的将来，服务业可能会产生 1000 亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f044f79f7525038fb94ed27b6a92209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Wearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.</p><p><blockquote>家庭可穿戴设备和配件继续追随 Service 的脚步，因为它已成为比 iPad 和 Mac 更大的收入领域。随着苹果观察的推出，这一类别已经从2016年的111.3亿美元增长到2020年的306.2亿美元。在4个财年中，可穿戴家居和配件的收入增加了244.8亿美元（175.06%），并且增长不断扩大。2021年前6个月，家用可穿戴设备和配件创造了208.1亿美元的收入，占2020年总收入的67.95%。AAPL 肯定有望在 2021 财年从家用可穿戴设备和配件中产生超过 350 亿美元的收入。未来几年，AAPL 有望从家用可穿戴设备和配件中产生 500 亿美元的年收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7071ec652302c6cab585fef4c408d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.</p><p><blockquote>到 2025 财年末，服务很有可能产生超过 780 亿美元的收入，如果家用可穿戴设备和配件都以 10% 的速度增长，则年收入可能超过 440 亿美元。这两个类别的总收入有望超过 1000 亿美元，到 2020 年代末，每年可能会增长到 1500 亿美元。我感到震惊的是，投资者没有大量涌入 AAPL，更可笑的是，对 AAPL 数据的强调没有得到更详细的讨论。当服务收入达到 1000 亿美元，家用可穿戴设备和配件收入达到 500 亿美元时，AAPL 的未来价值是多少？在过去的十年里，AAPL不断创新和改变技术的使用方式，我拒绝相信他们最好的日子已经过去。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cd231b75d9f875329f6713debe846b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：苹果）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票给一些投资者带来了极大的兴奋，而他们却让另一大群人摇头。除了赌博之外，我无法理解当你可以购买出售的 AAPL 股票时，为什么人们还要投资 AMC。苹果公司本应暴涨，但其最近两个季度的井喷并没有改变局面。我相信一旦第三季度数据公布，情况就会有所不同。我们将再次发现，AAPL 继续购买数十亿美元的股票，同时报告称，在 9 个月内，他们产生的净利润超过了 2020 年全年。在运营的前6个月，AAPL创造了2010.2亿美元的收入和523.9亿美元的净利润，同时返还了532亿美元的回购和股息。投资者有机会在下一次上涨之前购买更多 AAPL。我是 AAPL 的股东，我计划在第三季度财报公布之前购买更多股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167720481","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.\nInvestors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.\nApple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.\nEventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nIn 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.\nThe market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation & gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nApple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is\nSo what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&D]. In 2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.\nSo what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's board authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost $23 billion in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.\n(Source: Apple)\nMeme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market\nGameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME & AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nWhat's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.\nWhen investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN) has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.\n(Source:multpl.com)\nLaying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable\nAAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.\nSo the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.\nI believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In 2018 Services generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.\nServices are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nWearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nBy the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.\n(Source: Apple)\nConclusion\nThe meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":884,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185437221,"gmtCreate":1623666006663,"gmtModify":1634030462484,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"meme stock r scary&nbsp;","listText":"meme stock r scary&nbsp;","text":"meme stock r scary","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185437221","repostId":"1149751729","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185436934,"gmtCreate":1623665791128,"gmtModify":1634030465996,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"holding on to btc.&nbsp;","listText":"holding on to btc.&nbsp;","text":"holding on to btc.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185436934","repostId":"1173459349","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186991904,"gmtCreate":1623468060908,"gmtModify":1634032757472,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great job appl for alws trying to think of ways to improve on urself","listText":"Great job appl for alws trying to think of ways to improve on urself","text":"Great job appl for alws trying to think of ways to improve on urself","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186991904","repostId":"1131421513","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181127441,"gmtCreate":1623379886283,"gmtModify":1634033969759,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Appl is constantly improving on their innovation! great job !","listText":"Appl is constantly improving on their innovation! great job !","text":"Appl is constantly improving on their innovation! great job !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181127441","repostId":"1147547408","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181388639,"gmtCreate":1623374153121,"gmtModify":1634034056049,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"great innovation !&nbsp;","listText":"great innovation !&nbsp;","text":"great innovation !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181388639","repostId":"1132770051","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":989,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180748275,"gmtCreate":1623229172597,"gmtModify":1634035585273,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573467004161906","authorIdStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"u can do&nbsp;it tesla","listText":"u can do&nbsp;it tesla","text":"u can do it tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180748275","repostId":"1133238185","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":646,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":100123267,"gmtCreate":1619591329559,"gmtModify":1634211493969,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573467004161906","idStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"facebook is a great company with lots of room togrow. However, the share price of it is kinda high :(&nbsp;","listText":"facebook is a great company with lots of room togrow. However, the share price of it is kinda high :(&nbsp;","text":"facebook is a great company with lots of room togrow. However, the share price of it is kinda high :(","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100123267","repostId":"1131068131","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168665944,"gmtCreate":1623974330388,"gmtModify":1634025052866,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573467004161906","idStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"let’s go amc&nbsp;","listText":"let’s go amc&nbsp;","text":"let’s go amc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168665944","repostId":"1143254300","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149207320,"gmtCreate":1625727329760,"gmtModify":1633937952502,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573467004161906","idStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"short squeeze will happen soon for AMC !!!! let’sall diamond hand AMC !!! APES LETS GO !!&nbsp;","listText":"short squeeze will happen soon for AMC !!!! let’sall diamond hand AMC !!! APES LETS GO !!&nbsp;","text":"short squeeze will happen soon for AMC !!!! let’sall diamond hand AMC !!! APES LETS GO !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149207320","repostId":"1139964769","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191469785,"gmtCreate":1620899546747,"gmtModify":1634195459505,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573467004161906","idStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"tesla &nbsp;and nio! &nbsp;","listText":"tesla &nbsp;and nio! &nbsp;","text":"tesla and nio!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191469785","repostId":"1188302199","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1188302199","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620898857,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188302199?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-13 17:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Factors That Are Popping the EV Stock Bubble<blockquote>戳破电动汽车股票泡沫的 4 个因素</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188302199","media":"Barron's","summary":"Electric-vehicle investors are going through abrutal stretchafter an epic year.\nShares fell hard acr","content":"<p>Electric-vehicle investors are going through abrutal stretchafter an epic year.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了史诗般的一年后，电动汽车投资者正在经历残酷的压力。</blockquote></p><p> Shares fell hard across the sector on Wednesday as concern aboutinflationjoined the list of worries dragging on the shares. Stock in Tesla (ticker: TSLA), the leader of the EV pack, dropped 4.4% Wednesday, closing below $600 a share for the first time since early March. Shares closed near the low of the day.</p><p><blockquote>由于对通胀的担忧成为拖累股市的担忧之一，整个行业的股市周三大幅下跌。电动汽车领域的领导者特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）的股价周三下跌 4.4%，自 3 月初以来首次收于每股 600 美元以下。股价收于当日低点附近。</blockquote></p><p> The average drop among the EV stocks<i>Barron’s</i>tracks was about 3%. TheS&amp;P 500,Dow Jones Industrial AverageandNasdaq Compositedropped 2.1%, 2% and 2.7%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票平均下跌<i>巴伦</i>轨道约为3%。标准普尔500指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别下跌2.1%、2%和2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Behind all those declines was news early in the day that consumer prices increased 4.2% year over year in April, far higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. In April 2020, of course, things were&nbsp;falling apart, sending prices lower,&nbsp;amid Covid-19 lockdowns, so the gain was relative to a low base. But the March to April pickup in prices, excluding food and energy, was 0.9%. That rate equals full-year inflation of more than 11%.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些下跌的背后是当天早些时候有消息称，4 月份消费者价格同比上涨 4.2%，远高于美联储 2% 的目标。当然，在 2020 年 4 月，由于 Covid-19 封锁，情况开始分崩离析，导致价格走低，因此涨幅相对于较低的基数而言。但3月至4月，不包括食品和能源在内的价格上涨了0.9%。这一比率相当于全年超过 11% 的通货膨胀率。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation that high is like a parasite, eating into savings and sucking energy out of the economy. It also tends to hurt stock valuations, especially those of expensive growth companies that are expected to generate most of their cash flows far in the future. Higher inflation means higher bond yields, which reduce the current value of future cash flows, partly because higher rates give investors options to earn more interest on their money right now.</p><p><blockquote>如此高的通货膨胀就像一只寄生虫，吞噬了储蓄，并从经济中吸走了能量。它还往往会损害股票估值，尤其是那些昂贵的成长型公司的估值，这些公司预计将在未来很长一段时间内产生大部分现金流。更高的通胀意味着更高的债券收益率，这会降低未来现金流的现值，部分原因是更高的利率让投资者可以选择立即从资金中赚取更多利息。</blockquote></p><p> Wednesday’s inflation-fueled declines are just the tip of the iceberg, though, for EV companies. Tesla stock is down about 34% from its January 52-week high of more than $900 a share. The average drop from 52-week highs for the rest of the EV names is about 70%. Investors just don’t have the appetite for more speculative, higher-growth stocks in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>不过，对于电动汽车公司来说，周三受通胀影响的下滑只是冰山一角。特斯拉股价较 1 月份每股超过 900 美元的 52 周高点下跌约 34%。其余电动汽车品牌较 52 周高点平均下跌约 70%。在当前环境下，投资者对投机性更强、成长性更高的股票没有兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> Stock inChurchill Capital Acquisition Corp. IV(CCIV), the SPAC merging withLucid Motors, is down about 73% from its 52-week high.Hyliion(HYLN) shares are down about 86%. And theChineseEV makersNIO(NIO),XPeng(XPEV) andLi Auto(LI) have fallen an average of about 45% from their 52-week highs.</p><p><blockquote>与 Lucid Motors 合并的 SPAC Churchill Capital Acquisition Corp. IV (CCIV) 股价较 52 周高点下跌约 73%。 Hyliion (HYLN) 股价下跌约 86%。中国电动汽车制造商蔚来汽车（蔚来）、小鹏汽车（XPEV）和理想汽车（LI）的股价较 52 周高点平均下跌约 45%。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation is just the latest problem for the stocks.More competitionin the EV business, with traditional auto makers pouring billions into developing vehicles, is one problem. At the same time, the global shortage ofsemiconductorsis constraining automotive production around the globe, making it hard for EV makers to benefit from red-hot demand for cars and rising gasoline price.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀只是股市面临的最新问题。随着传统汽车制造商投入数十亿美元开发汽车，电动汽车行业的竞争加剧是一个问题。与此同时，全球半导体短缺限制了全球汽车生产，使得电动汽车制造商很难从汽车需求旺盛和汽油价格上涨中受益。</blockquote></p><p> What is more, many of the new EV companies became public by merging with special-purpose acquisition companies. Many SPAC stocks, not just the EV-related ones, are struggling. TheDefiance Next Gen SPAC Derived ETF(SPAK) is down 34% from its February 52-week high.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，许多新的电动汽车公司通过与特殊目的收购公司合并而上市。许多 SPAC 股票，而不仅仅是与电动汽车相关的股票，都在苦苦挣扎。Defiance Next Gen SPAC 衍生 ETF (SPAK) 较 2 月份的 52 周高点下跌 34%。</blockquote></p><p> A dozen EV-SPAC companies<i>Barron’s</i>tracks are now down 15% over the past year on average. Only five remain above their SPAC merger price of $10 a share: Lucid,Fisker(FSR),Arrival(ARVL),QuantumScape(QS), andNikola(NKLA).</p><p><blockquote>十几家电动汽车特殊目的收购公司<i>巴伦</i>与过去一年相比，轨道现在平均下降了15%。只有五家公司仍高于每股 10 美元的 SPAC 合并价格：Lucid、Fisker (FSR)、Arrival (ARVL)、QuantumScape (QS) 和 Nikola (NKLA)。</blockquote></p><p> Investors might believe that means those are the long-term winners among the EV SPAC stocks. But it is also possible their higher prices mean there is still further to fall.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能认为这意味着这些是电动汽车特殊目的收购公司股票中的长期赢家。但也有可能它们的较高价格意味着还有进一步下跌的空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Factors That Are Popping the EV Stock Bubble<blockquote>戳破电动汽车股票泡沫的 4 个因素</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Factors That Are Popping the EV Stock Bubble<blockquote>戳破电动汽车股票泡沫的 4 个因素</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 17:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Electric-vehicle investors are going through abrutal stretchafter an epic year.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了史诗般的一年后，电动汽车投资者正在经历残酷的压力。</blockquote></p><p> Shares fell hard across the sector on Wednesday as concern aboutinflationjoined the list of worries dragging on the shares. Stock in Tesla (ticker: TSLA), the leader of the EV pack, dropped 4.4% Wednesday, closing below $600 a share for the first time since early March. Shares closed near the low of the day.</p><p><blockquote>由于对通胀的担忧成为拖累股市的担忧之一，整个行业的股市周三大幅下跌。电动汽车领域的领导者特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）的股价周三下跌 4.4%，自 3 月初以来首次收于每股 600 美元以下。股价收于当日低点附近。</blockquote></p><p> The average drop among the EV stocks<i>Barron’s</i>tracks was about 3%. TheS&amp;P 500,Dow Jones Industrial AverageandNasdaq Compositedropped 2.1%, 2% and 2.7%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票平均下跌<i>巴伦</i>轨道约为3%。标准普尔500指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别下跌2.1%、2%和2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Behind all those declines was news early in the day that consumer prices increased 4.2% year over year in April, far higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. In April 2020, of course, things were&nbsp;falling apart, sending prices lower,&nbsp;amid Covid-19 lockdowns, so the gain was relative to a low base. But the March to April pickup in prices, excluding food and energy, was 0.9%. That rate equals full-year inflation of more than 11%.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些下跌的背后是当天早些时候有消息称，4 月份消费者价格同比上涨 4.2%，远高于美联储 2% 的目标。当然，在 2020 年 4 月，由于 Covid-19 封锁，情况开始分崩离析，导致价格走低，因此涨幅相对于较低的基数而言。但3月至4月，不包括食品和能源在内的价格上涨了0.9%。这一比率相当于全年超过 11% 的通货膨胀率。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation that high is like a parasite, eating into savings and sucking energy out of the economy. It also tends to hurt stock valuations, especially those of expensive growth companies that are expected to generate most of their cash flows far in the future. Higher inflation means higher bond yields, which reduce the current value of future cash flows, partly because higher rates give investors options to earn more interest on their money right now.</p><p><blockquote>如此高的通货膨胀就像一只寄生虫，吞噬了储蓄，并从经济中吸走了能量。它还往往会损害股票估值，尤其是那些昂贵的成长型公司的估值，这些公司预计将在未来很长一段时间内产生大部分现金流。更高的通胀意味着更高的债券收益率，这会降低未来现金流的现值，部分原因是更高的利率让投资者可以选择立即从资金中赚取更多利息。</blockquote></p><p> Wednesday’s inflation-fueled declines are just the tip of the iceberg, though, for EV companies. Tesla stock is down about 34% from its January 52-week high of more than $900 a share. The average drop from 52-week highs for the rest of the EV names is about 70%. Investors just don’t have the appetite for more speculative, higher-growth stocks in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>不过，对于电动汽车公司来说，周三受通胀影响的下滑只是冰山一角。特斯拉股价较 1 月份每股超过 900 美元的 52 周高点下跌约 34%。其余电动汽车品牌较 52 周高点平均下跌约 70%。在当前环境下，投资者对投机性更强、成长性更高的股票没有兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> Stock inChurchill Capital Acquisition Corp. IV(CCIV), the SPAC merging withLucid Motors, is down about 73% from its 52-week high.Hyliion(HYLN) shares are down about 86%. And theChineseEV makersNIO(NIO),XPeng(XPEV) andLi Auto(LI) have fallen an average of about 45% from their 52-week highs.</p><p><blockquote>与 Lucid Motors 合并的 SPAC Churchill Capital Acquisition Corp. IV (CCIV) 股价较 52 周高点下跌约 73%。 Hyliion (HYLN) 股价下跌约 86%。中国电动汽车制造商蔚来汽车（蔚来）、小鹏汽车（XPEV）和理想汽车（LI）的股价较 52 周高点平均下跌约 45%。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation is just the latest problem for the stocks.More competitionin the EV business, with traditional auto makers pouring billions into developing vehicles, is one problem. At the same time, the global shortage ofsemiconductorsis constraining automotive production around the globe, making it hard for EV makers to benefit from red-hot demand for cars and rising gasoline price.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀只是股市面临的最新问题。随着传统汽车制造商投入数十亿美元开发汽车，电动汽车行业的竞争加剧是一个问题。与此同时，全球半导体短缺限制了全球汽车生产，使得电动汽车制造商很难从汽车需求旺盛和汽油价格上涨中受益。</blockquote></p><p> What is more, many of the new EV companies became public by merging with special-purpose acquisition companies. Many SPAC stocks, not just the EV-related ones, are struggling. TheDefiance Next Gen SPAC Derived ETF(SPAK) is down 34% from its February 52-week high.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，许多新的电动汽车公司通过与特殊目的收购公司合并而上市。许多 SPAC 股票，而不仅仅是与电动汽车相关的股票，都在苦苦挣扎。Defiance Next Gen SPAC 衍生 ETF (SPAK) 较 2 月份的 52 周高点下跌 34%。</blockquote></p><p> A dozen EV-SPAC companies<i>Barron’s</i>tracks are now down 15% over the past year on average. Only five remain above their SPAC merger price of $10 a share: Lucid,Fisker(FSR),Arrival(ARVL),QuantumScape(QS), andNikola(NKLA).</p><p><blockquote>十几家电动汽车特殊目的收购公司<i>巴伦</i>与过去一年相比，轨道现在平均下降了15%。只有五家公司仍高于每股 10 美元的 SPAC 合并价格：Lucid、Fisker (FSR)、Arrival (ARVL)、QuantumScape (QS) 和 Nikola (NKLA)。</blockquote></p><p> Investors might believe that means those are the long-term winners among the EV SPAC stocks. But it is also possible their higher prices mean there is still further to fall.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能认为这意味着这些是电动汽车特殊目的收购公司股票中的长期赢家。但也有可能它们的较高价格意味着还有进一步下跌的空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-and-3-more-factors-that-are-popping-the-ev-stock-bubble-51620856104?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车","NIO":"蔚来","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp.","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-and-3-more-factors-that-are-popping-the-ev-stock-bubble-51620856104?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188302199","content_text":"Electric-vehicle investors are going through abrutal stretchafter an epic year.\nShares fell hard across the sector on Wednesday as concern aboutinflationjoined the list of worries dragging on the shares. Stock in Tesla (ticker: TSLA), the leader of the EV pack, dropped 4.4% Wednesday, closing below $600 a share for the first time since early March. Shares closed near the low of the day.\nThe average drop among the EV stocksBarron’stracks was about 3%. TheS&P 500,Dow Jones Industrial AverageandNasdaq Compositedropped 2.1%, 2% and 2.7%, respectively.\nBehind all those declines was news early in the day that consumer prices increased 4.2% year over year in April, far higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. In April 2020, of course, things were falling apart, sending prices lower, amid Covid-19 lockdowns, so the gain was relative to a low base. But the March to April pickup in prices, excluding food and energy, was 0.9%. That rate equals full-year inflation of more than 11%.\nInflation that high is like a parasite, eating into savings and sucking energy out of the economy. It also tends to hurt stock valuations, especially those of expensive growth companies that are expected to generate most of their cash flows far in the future. Higher inflation means higher bond yields, which reduce the current value of future cash flows, partly because higher rates give investors options to earn more interest on their money right now.\nWednesday’s inflation-fueled declines are just the tip of the iceberg, though, for EV companies. Tesla stock is down about 34% from its January 52-week high of more than $900 a share. The average drop from 52-week highs for the rest of the EV names is about 70%. Investors just don’t have the appetite for more speculative, higher-growth stocks in the current environment.\nStock inChurchill Capital Acquisition Corp. IV(CCIV), the SPAC merging withLucid Motors, is down about 73% from its 52-week high.Hyliion(HYLN) shares are down about 86%. And theChineseEV makersNIO(NIO),XPeng(XPEV) andLi Auto(LI) have fallen an average of about 45% from their 52-week highs.\nInflation is just the latest problem for the stocks.More competitionin the EV business, with traditional auto makers pouring billions into developing vehicles, is one problem. At the same time, the global shortage ofsemiconductorsis constraining automotive production around the globe, making it hard for EV makers to benefit from red-hot demand for cars and rising gasoline price.\nWhat is more, many of the new EV companies became public by merging with special-purpose acquisition companies. Many SPAC stocks, not just the EV-related ones, are struggling. TheDefiance Next Gen SPAC Derived ETF(SPAK) is down 34% from its February 52-week high.\nA dozen EV-SPAC companiesBarron’stracks are now down 15% over the past year on average. Only five remain above their SPAC merger price of $10 a share: Lucid,Fisker(FSR),Arrival(ARVL),QuantumScape(QS), andNikola(NKLA).\nInvestors might believe that means those are the long-term winners among the EV SPAC stocks. But it is also possible their higher prices mean there is still further to fall.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"HYLN":0.9,"LI":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149209846,"gmtCreate":1625726758785,"gmtModify":1633937958057,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573467004161906","idStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Appl is a great stock to hold for long term&nbsp;","listText":"Appl is a great stock to hold for long term&nbsp;","text":"Appl is a great stock to hold for long term","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149209846","repostId":"1140881081","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140881081","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625714447,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1140881081?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-08 11:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple Stock Climbed to a New High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140881081","media":"The motley fool","summary":"Shares of $Apple$rose 1.8% to a record closing high of $144.57 on Wednesday after a respected Wall Street investment bank issued bullish commentary on the popular tech stock.JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee reiterated his overweight rating on Apple's stock yesterday and boosted his share price forecast from $165 to $170. His new estimate implies potential gains to investors of roughly 18% in the coming year.Chatterjee noted that Apple underperformed theS&P 500and$Nasdaq$in the first half of 202","content":"<p>What happened</p><p><blockquote>发生了什么事</blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a></b>(NASDAQ:AAPL)rose 1.8% to a record closing high of $144.57 on Wednesday after a respected Wall Street investment bank issued bullish commentary on the popular tech stock.</p><p><blockquote>股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a></b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）周三上涨 1.8%，至 144.57 美元的历史收盘高点，此前一家受人尊敬的华尔街投资银行对这只受欢迎的科技股发表了看涨评论。</blockquote></p><p> So what</p><p><blockquote>那又怎样</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee reiterated his overweight rating on Apple's stock yesterday and boosted his share price forecast from $165 to $170. His new estimate implies potential gains to investors of roughly 18% in the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师 Samik Chatterjee 昨天重申了对苹果股票的跑赢大盘评级，并将股价预测从 165 美元上调至 170 美元。他的新估计意味着未来一年投资者的潜在收益约为 18%。</blockquote></p><p> Chatterjee noted that Apple underperformed the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>and<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a></b>in the first half of 2021. Yet he expects thetechtitan to post strong sales of both current and future models of the iPhone. Thus, Chatterjee posits that Apple's shares could generate strong gains for shareholders in the second half of the year ahead of the launch of the iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>查特吉指出，苹果的表现逊于<b>标普500</b>和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a></b>2021年上半年。然而，他预计这家科技巨头将在当前和未来型号的iPhone上销售强劲。因此，查特吉认为，在 iPhone 13 推出之前，苹果股价可能会在下半年为股东带来强劲收益。</blockquote></p><p> Now what</p><p><blockquote>现在呢</blockquote></p><p> The recent rally in Apple's stock price suggests many investors agree with Chatterjee's bullish outlook. They're likely correct to do so. Robust iPhone volumes tend to also drive sales of Apple's high-margin services and fast-growing wearables revenue. So, if it does deliver blowout iPhone sales figures, Apple could enjoy an earnings bonanza later this year. This potential profit windfall, combined with Apple's bountiful share repurchases and steadily growing dividend, gives shareholders multiple ways to win.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价最近的反弹表明许多投资者同意查特吉的看涨前景。他们这样做可能是正确的。强劲的 iPhone 销量也往往会推动苹果高利润服务的销售和快速增长的可穿戴设备收入。因此，如果 iPhone 确实实现井喷式销售数据，苹果可能会在今年晚些时候享受丰厚的盈利。这种潜在的利润意外之财，加上苹果大量的股票回购和稳步增长的股息，为股东提供了多种获胜方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple Stock Climbed to a New High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple Stock Climbed to a New High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The motley fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-08 11:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What happened</p><p><blockquote>发生了什么事</blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a></b>(NASDAQ:AAPL)rose 1.8% to a record closing high of $144.57 on Wednesday after a respected Wall Street investment bank issued bullish commentary on the popular tech stock.</p><p><blockquote>股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a></b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）周三上涨 1.8%，至 144.57 美元的历史收盘高点，此前一家受人尊敬的华尔街投资银行对这只受欢迎的科技股发表了看涨评论。</blockquote></p><p> So what</p><p><blockquote>那又怎样</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee reiterated his overweight rating on Apple's stock yesterday and boosted his share price forecast from $165 to $170. His new estimate implies potential gains to investors of roughly 18% in the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师 Samik Chatterjee 昨天重申了对苹果股票的跑赢大盘评级，并将股价预测从 165 美元上调至 170 美元。他的新估计意味着未来一年投资者的潜在收益约为 18%。</blockquote></p><p> Chatterjee noted that Apple underperformed the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>and<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a></b>in the first half of 2021. Yet he expects thetechtitan to post strong sales of both current and future models of the iPhone. Thus, Chatterjee posits that Apple's shares could generate strong gains for shareholders in the second half of the year ahead of the launch of the iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>查特吉指出，苹果的表现逊于<b>标普500</b>和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a></b>2021年上半年。然而，他预计这家科技巨头将在当前和未来型号的iPhone上销售强劲。因此，查特吉认为，在 iPhone 13 推出之前，苹果股价可能会在下半年为股东带来强劲收益。</blockquote></p><p> Now what</p><p><blockquote>现在呢</blockquote></p><p> The recent rally in Apple's stock price suggests many investors agree with Chatterjee's bullish outlook. They're likely correct to do so. Robust iPhone volumes tend to also drive sales of Apple's high-margin services and fast-growing wearables revenue. So, if it does deliver blowout iPhone sales figures, Apple could enjoy an earnings bonanza later this year. This potential profit windfall, combined with Apple's bountiful share repurchases and steadily growing dividend, gives shareholders multiple ways to win.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价最近的反弹表明许多投资者同意查特吉的看涨前景。他们这样做可能是正确的。强劲的 iPhone 销量也往往会推动苹果高利润服务的销售和快速增长的可穿戴设备收入。因此，如果 iPhone 确实实现井喷式销售数据，苹果可能会在今年晚些时候享受丰厚的盈利。这种潜在的利润意外之财，加上苹果大量的股票回购和稳步增长的股息，为股东提供了多种获胜方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/07/why-apple-stock-climbed-to-a-new-high-today/\">The motley fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NGD":"New Gold","09086":"华夏纳指-U","03086":"华夏纳指","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/07/why-apple-stock-climbed-to-a-new-high-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140881081","content_text":"What happened\nShares of Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)rose 1.8% to a record closing high of $144.57 on Wednesday after a respected Wall Street investment bank issued bullish commentary on the popular tech stock.\nSo what\nJPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee reiterated his overweight rating on Apple's stock yesterday and boosted his share price forecast from $165 to $170. His new estimate implies potential gains to investors of roughly 18% in the coming year.\nChatterjee noted that Apple underperformed theS&P 500andNasdaqin the first half of 2021. Yet he expects thetechtitan to post strong sales of both current and future models of the iPhone. Thus, Chatterjee posits that Apple's shares could generate strong gains for shareholders in the second half of the year ahead of the launch of the iPhone 13.\nNow what\nThe recent rally in Apple's stock price suggests many investors agree with Chatterjee's bullish outlook. They're likely correct to do so. Robust iPhone volumes tend to also drive sales of Apple's high-margin services and fast-growing wearables revenue. So, if it does deliver blowout iPhone sales figures, Apple could enjoy an earnings bonanza later this year. This potential profit windfall, combined with Apple's bountiful share repurchases and steadily growing dividend, gives shareholders multiple ways to win.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NGD":0.9,"03086":0.9,"09086":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164994192,"gmtCreate":1624164466616,"gmtModify":1634009930369,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573467004161906","idStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"long term potential growth stock to have !&nbsp;","listText":"long term potential growth stock to have !&nbsp;","text":"long term potential growth stock to have !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164994192","repostId":"1192473918","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168432545,"gmtCreate":1623980491787,"gmtModify":1634024814831,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573467004161906","idStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"i believe in BABA! good things take time!","listText":"i believe in BABA! good things take time!","text":"i believe in BABA! good things take time!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168432545","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中拥有多种增长动力，这使得其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会随着潜在的双底价格行动信号而转向看涨。</li><li>我们将讨论公司的多重增长动力，让投资者自己判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永元/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自 11 月 20 日初蚂蚁金服 IPO 被撤销以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价经历了可怕的 8 个月，该股在低迷中萎靡不振，较高点下跌了 34%。在考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显，阿里巴巴具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且在其关键的 50W 均线上总体上得到了良好的支撑。在过去 4 年中，它唯一一次失去关键的 50W MA 支撑位是在 2018 年熊市期间，当时阿里巴巴下跌了约 40%，但仍在重要的 200W MA 上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是 “最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA以上得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像 2018 年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平可能是一个可能的技术性买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩张的增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度电子商务收入。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV从1.68吨人民币增长到7.49吨人民币，仅用了7年时间，复合年增长率达到了23.8%，增长率着实惊人。我们还看到其 GMV 增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从 76.7 亿元人民币增长到 473.68 亿元人民币，过去 10 年的复合年增长率为 51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然小得多，但在过去10年中，其CAGR仍以30.42%的速度增长，这绝不是缓慢的。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度预计将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为 12.4%，从 2021 年的 13.8 万亿元人民币（相当于 2.16 万亿元人民币）下降到 2024 年的 19.6 万亿元人民币（相当于 3.06 万亿元人民币），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将中国市场的增长率和规模与美国电子商务市场进行比较时，我们可以看到它们在规模和增长率上的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场从 2021 年到 2025 年的复合年增长率预计仅为 4.67%，大大低于中国的 12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约 5630 亿美元，相当于届时中国市场预期价值的 18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自其快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克股票代码：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经经营着一项利润更高的业务（息税前税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计将继续实现强劲的盈利能力展望未来，这将为该公司提供巨大的灵活性，以与京东和PDD正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到了其 SG&amp;A 中反映的 27.82 亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率向下倾斜。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个重要举措是公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是 PDD 的主要电子商务战略，PDD 在最近一个季度共获得了 8.23 亿 AAC，而阿里巴巴的 8.91 亿 AAC。考虑到 2017 年第二季度 PDD 的 AAC 数量仅为 1 亿，而同期阿里巴巴的 AAC 数量为 4.66 亿，PDD 的 AAC 增长确实惊人。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转移到社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出它的大枪（它已经拥有）来与PDD和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到 2022 年 1020 亿元人民币的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴 21 财年中国商业收入的 21.5% 左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过 2019 年至 2022 年 3 年间 44.22% 的快速复合年增长率。虽然这个市场还比较小，但阿里巴巴不能让这个市场目前的领头羊：PDD在众人不知情的情况下，如此轻易地占据主导地位，吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取其在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止PDD扩大其领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中我们可以观察到，PDD 预计将在未来几年继续快速增长其收入，尽管预计随后将恢复正常。更重要的是，PDD 预计未来还将不断提高其息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力。这表明，社区市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势加以利用，才能在游戏初期否认 PDD 无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公共云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；通道</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：CAICT；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公共云市场占有 40% 的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管阿里巴巴处于领先地位，但阿里巴巴仍处于大量投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从 2017 年的 264.8 亿元人民币增长到 2023 年的 2307.4 亿元人民币，复合年增长率将达到 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的惊人增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤为明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从 2017 年的 1450 亿美元增长到 2022 年的 3970 亿美元，复合年增长率将达到 22.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。资料来源：CnTechPost；高德纳</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在 2020 年以 9.5% 的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）GCP 的领先优势，我并不感到惊讶。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场的明显领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。虽然阿里巴巴的云业务尚未实现息税前利润（21 财年息税前利润率：-15%，20 财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的 GCP 也没有实现盈利（20 财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19 财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务，预计阿里巴巴将在这些地区拥有更强大的领导地位，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常有说服力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/息税前利润3年范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>电动汽车/前轮驱动息税前利润和电动汽车/前轮驱动转速趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到阿里巴巴的 TEV / EBIT 历史范围（3 年平均值为 33.54 倍）时，阿里巴巴的 EV / Fwd EBIT 趋势无疑意味着该股被严重低估，因为阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍有望快速增长。不过，由于我们希望更清楚地了解阿里巴巴的息税前利润是如何估值的，因此我们认为，如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，这将是有用的，如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史息税前利润和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司的一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的电动汽车/息税前利润看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴在区间中点的公允价值区间为 294.98 美元，基于当前 210 美元的股价，这代表着 40.5% 的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着 Mr.市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场计划和不断增长的阿里云部门等仍有很大的潜在上涨空间。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因仅仅是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该认识到这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。关键在于，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有巨大的影响力，而这些行为和行动有时在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能因此大幅打折阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长征程中的一个昙花一现，那么你一定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续交付稳健的业绩，证明了该公司良好执行的强大能力。由于公司将继续在一个拥有众多增长动力的市场中运营，这些增长动力有望推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现目前的估值极具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中拥有多种增长动力，这使得其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会随着潜在的双底价格行动信号而转向看涨。</li><li>我们将讨论公司的多重增长动力，让投资者自己判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永元/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自 11 月 20 日初蚂蚁金服 IPO 被撤销以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价经历了可怕的 8 个月，该股在低迷中萎靡不振，较高点下跌了 34%。在考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显，阿里巴巴具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且在其关键的 50W 均线上总体上得到了良好的支撑。在过去 4 年中，它唯一一次失去关键的 50W MA 支撑位是在 2018 年熊市期间，当时阿里巴巴下跌了约 40%，但仍在重要的 200W MA 上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是 “最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA以上得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像 2018 年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平可能是一个可能的技术性买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩张的增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度电子商务收入。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV从1.68吨人民币增长到7.49吨人民币，仅用了7年时间，复合年增长率达到了23.8%，增长率着实惊人。我们还看到其 GMV 增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从 76.7 亿元人民币增长到 473.68 亿元人民币，过去 10 年的复合年增长率为 51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然小得多，但在过去10年中，其CAGR仍以30.42%的速度增长，这绝不是缓慢的。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度预计将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为 12.4%，从 2021 年的 13.8 万亿元人民币（相当于 2.16 万亿元人民币）下降到 2024 年的 19.6 万亿元人民币（相当于 3.06 万亿元人民币），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将中国市场的增长率和规模与美国电子商务市场进行比较时，我们可以看到它们在规模和增长率上的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场从 2021 年到 2025 年的复合年增长率预计仅为 4.67%，大大低于中国的 12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约 5630 亿美元，相当于届时中国市场预期价值的 18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自其快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克股票代码：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经经营着一项利润更高的业务（息税前税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计将继续实现强劲的盈利能力展望未来，这将为该公司提供巨大的灵活性，以与京东和PDD正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到了其 SG&amp;A 中反映的 27.82 亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率向下倾斜。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个重要举措是公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是 PDD 的主要电子商务战略，PDD 在最近一个季度共获得了 8.23 亿 AAC，而阿里巴巴的 8.91 亿 AAC。考虑到 2017 年第二季度 PDD 的 AAC 数量仅为 1 亿，而同期阿里巴巴的 AAC 数量为 4.66 亿，PDD 的 AAC 增长确实惊人。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转移到社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出它的大枪（它已经拥有）来与PDD和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到 2022 年 1020 亿元人民币的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴 21 财年中国商业收入的 21.5% 左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过 2019 年至 2022 年 3 年间 44.22% 的快速复合年增长率。虽然这个市场还比较小，但阿里巴巴不能让这个市场目前的领头羊：PDD在众人不知情的情况下，如此轻易地占据主导地位，吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取其在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止PDD扩大其领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中我们可以观察到，PDD 预计将在未来几年继续快速增长其收入，尽管预计随后将恢复正常。更重要的是，PDD 预计未来还将不断提高其息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力。这表明，社区市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势加以利用，才能在游戏初期否认 PDD 无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公共云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；通道</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：CAICT；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公共云市场占有 40% 的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管阿里巴巴处于领先地位，但阿里巴巴仍处于大量投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从 2017 年的 264.8 亿元人民币增长到 2023 年的 2307.4 亿元人民币，复合年增长率将达到 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的惊人增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤为明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从 2017 年的 1450 亿美元增长到 2022 年的 3970 亿美元，复合年增长率将达到 22.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。资料来源：CnTechPost；高德纳</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在 2020 年以 9.5% 的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）GCP 的领先优势，我并不感到惊讶。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场的明显领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。虽然阿里巴巴的云业务尚未实现息税前利润（21 财年息税前利润率：-15%，20 财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的 GCP 也没有实现盈利（20 财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19 财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务，预计阿里巴巴将在这些地区拥有更强大的领导地位，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常有说服力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/息税前利润3年范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>电动汽车/前轮驱动息税前利润和电动汽车/前轮驱动转速趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到阿里巴巴的 TEV / EBIT 历史范围（3 年平均值为 33.54 倍）时，阿里巴巴的 EV / Fwd EBIT 趋势无疑意味着该股被严重低估，因为阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍有望快速增长。不过，由于我们希望更清楚地了解阿里巴巴的息税前利润是如何估值的，因此我们认为，如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，这将是有用的，如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史息税前利润和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司的一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的电动汽车/息税前利润看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴在区间中点的公允价值区间为 294.98 美元，基于当前 210 美元的股价，这代表着 40.5% 的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着 Mr.市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场计划和不断增长的阿里云部门等仍有很大的潜在上涨空间。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因仅仅是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该认识到这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。关键在于，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有巨大的影响力，而这些行为和行动有时在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能因此大幅打折阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长征程中的一个昙花一现，那么你一定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续交付稳健的业绩，证明了该公司良好执行的强大能力。由于公司将继续在一个拥有众多增长动力的市场中运营，这些增长动力有望推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现目前的估值极具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100500359,"gmtCreate":1619619405571,"gmtModify":1634211282517,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573467004161906","idStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"datadog looks like a great company to buy","listText":"datadog looks like a great company to buy","text":"datadog looks like a great company to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100500359","repostId":"1138128459","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138128459","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619608043,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138128459?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 19:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Ultra-Popular Growth Stocks With 28% to 56% Upside, According to Wall Street<blockquote>华尔街称 5 只超受欢迎的成长型股票，上涨空间为 28% 至 56%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138128459","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"For 13 months, Wall Street has proved virtually unstoppable. Since hitting a bear market bottom on M","content":"<p>For 13 months, Wall Street has proved virtually unstoppable. Since hitting a bear market bottom on March 23, 2020, the broad-based<b>S&amp;P 500</b>has galloped higher by 87%, through this past weekend. This handily outpaces the average bounce-back rally from a bear-market bottom and leaves the historic average annual return for the benchmark index eating dust.</p><p><blockquote>13个月来，华尔街几乎是不可阻挡的。自2020年3月23日触及熊市底部以来，基础广泛的<b>标普500</b>上周末上涨了 87%。这轻松超过了熊市底部的平均反弹，并使基准指数的历史平均年回报率化为乌有。</blockquote></p><p> Yet even at these lofty levels, Wall Street professionals see value. Based on the consensus one-year price targets of Wall Street analysts, five of the most populargrowth stocksoffer implied upside ranging from a low of 28% to as much as 56%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，即使在这些崇高的水平上，华尔街专业人士也看到了价值。根据华尔街分析师一致的一年目标价，五只最受欢迎的成长型股票暗示上涨空间从最低的 28% 到高达 56%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d19c9dd5972bb303415e3fb9e20fb2d4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> Shopify: Implied upside of 31%</p><p><blockquote>Shopify：隐含上涨空间 31%</blockquote></p><p> First up is my absolute favorite software-as-a-service (SaaS) stock,<b>Shopify</b>(NYSE:SHOP). Even after gaining more than 1,000% over the past 3.5 years, Wall Street believes the company's stock offers an additional 31% upside to $1,434 a share over the next year.</p><p><blockquote>首先是我最喜欢的软件即服务（SaaS）股票，<b>商店</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：商店）。即使在过去 3.5 年上涨超过 1,000% 之后，华尔街认为该公司的股票明年仍将上涨 31%，达到每股 1,434 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Shopify's operating model of providing cloud-based e-commerce solutions to (primarily) small businessescouldn't be in a better place at the moment. Although it was initially hit by the pandemic with virtually all other retail-oriented companies, it quickly became apparent that Shopify's e-commerce platform would be a logical beneficiary as businesses shifted course and pushed online. The result was a 96% increase in gross merchandise value (GMV) transacted across its platform in 2020 to $119.6 billion. Over the past six years, GMV has grown at a compound annual rate of 77.7%.</p><p><blockquote>Shopify 为（主要）小型企业提供基于云的电子商务解决方案的运营模式目前再好不过了。尽管 Shopify 最初与几乎所有其他面向零售的公司一起受到了疫情的打击，但随着企业转变方向并转向线上，Shopify 的电子商务平台很快就变得显而易见，它将成为一个合乎逻辑的受益者。结果是，2020 年其平台上的商品总价值 (GMV) 增长了 96%，达到 1196 亿美元。在过去的六年里，GMV以77.7%的复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> What's made Shopify tick is both the discovery of the platform by new merchants and the ability to snag worthwhile deals with major retailers. The number of consumers using the platform increased by approximately 52% last year to 457 million. Meanwhile, itpartneredwith the likes of<b>Walmart</b>&nbsp;and<b>Pinterest</b>to streamline aspects of their online sales platforms.</p><p><blockquote>让Shopify成功的是新商家对该平台的发现，以及与主要零售商达成有价值交易的能力。去年使用该平台的消费者数量增加了约52%，达到4.57亿。同时，它还与<b>沃尔玛</b>和<b>Pinterest</b>简化其在线销售平台的各个方面。</blockquote></p><p> Shopify isn't remotely inexpensive on a fundamental basis. But if it can continue to grow its GMV at these insane levels, investors will gladly pay a hefty premium to own Shopify stock.</p><p><blockquote>从根本上来说，Shopify 一点也不便宜。但如果它能够继续以这些疯狂的水平增长其 GMV，投资者将很乐意支付高额溢价来持有 Shopify 股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df219df7b01fbc2aa008c455f28b99e5\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> Teladoc Health: Implied upside of 40%</p><p><blockquote>Teladoc Health：隐含上涨空间为 40%</blockquote></p><p> Telemedicine giant<b>Teladoc Health</b>(NYSE:TDOC)has been exceptionally popular over the past year, for obvious reasons I'll touch on in a moment. According to Wall Street, shares of Teladoc could ascend past $250 over the next 12 months, giving it an implied upside of 40%.</p><p><blockquote>远程医疗巨头<b>泰拉多克健康</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TDOC）在过去的一年里非常受欢迎，原因显而易见，我稍后会谈到。据华尔街报道，Teladoc 的股价在未来 12 个月内可能会升至 250 美元以上，隐含上涨空间为 40%。</blockquote></p><p> As you can imagine, physicians wanted to keep at-risk people and potentially infected patients out of offices and hospitals if at all possible last year. This led to Teladoc handling almost 10.6 million virtual visits in 2020, up from around 4.1 million in the previous year.</p><p><blockquote>你可以想象，去年，如果可能的话，医生们希望让高危人群和潜在感染的患者远离办公室和医院。这导致Teladoc在2020年处理了近1060万次虚拟访问，高于前一年的约410万次。</blockquote></p><p> But understand that telehealth is agame-changing healthcare modeland not just a one-year wonder because of the pandemic. It's far more convenient for patients, allows physicians to keep closer tabs on at-risk patients, and is usually billed at a lower rate than office visits, which health insurers love. These advantages are exactly why Teladoc's sales grew by an average annual rate of 74% between 2013 and 2019.</p><p><blockquote>但是要明白，远程医疗是一种改变游戏规则的医疗保健模式，而不仅仅是疫情一年的奇迹。这对患者来说方便得多，可以让医生更密切地关注高危患者，而且通常比健康保险公司喜欢的诊所就诊收费更低。这些优势正是 Teladoc 销售额在 2013 年至 2019 年间年均增长率为 74% 的原因。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, Teladoc has a new toy, so to speak: Itacquired leading applied health signals company Livongo Healthin early November. Livongo leans on artificial intelligence to send tips and nudges to patients with chronic illnesses. These nudges help patients make behavioral changes that result in their leading healthier lives. The addition of Livongo makes Teladoc a veritable no-brainer buy.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Teladoc 可以说有一个新玩具：它在 11 月初收购了领先的应用健康信号公司 Livongo Healthin。Livongo依靠人工智能向慢性病患者发送提示和轻推。这些推动有助于患者做出行为改变，从而过上更健康的生活。Livongo 的加入使得 Teladoc 成为名副其实的明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e47e6b6eced3a10e200ffd777619a0c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake: Implied upside of 28%</p><p><blockquote>雪花：隐含上涨空间为 28%</blockquote></p><p> Another high-growth stock with abundant upside according to Wall Street professionals is cloud data warehousing company<b>Snowflake</b>(NYSE:SNOW). After recently retracing to an all-time low, analysts see Snowflake gaining up to 28% to almost $301 a share over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街专业人士认为，另一只具有巨大上涨空间的高增长股票是云数据仓库公司<b>雪花</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：雪）。在最近回落至历史低点后，分析师预计 Snowflake 将在未来 12 个月内上涨 28%，达到每股近 301 美元。</blockquote></p><p> As I alluded to with Shopify, we're witnessing a big push by businesses online and into the cloud, which has been a boon for most cloud infrastructure companies. Despite the worst economic downturn in decades, Snowflake grew its product revenue by 120% to $553.8 million in fiscal 2021. Although it's losing a lot of money at the moment, the services Snowflake offers should yield juicy margins as the company matures.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在Shopify中提到的，我们正在目睹企业大力推动在线和云，这对大多数云基础设施公司来说都是一个福音。尽管经历了几十年来最严重的经济衰退，Snowflake 在 2021 财年的产品收入仍增长了 120%，达到 5.538 亿美元。尽管目前亏损很多，但随着公司的成熟，雪花提供的服务应该会产生丰厚的利润。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Arguably the most interesting thing about Snowflake is itssustainable competitive advantages. For instance, it offers a pay-as-you-go model that shuns the subscriptions that SaaS stocks often covet. By allowing its customers to pay based on their storage needs and Snowflake Compute Credits used, it's offering a highly transparent and cost-effective operating model.</p><p><blockquote>可以说，雪花最有趣的一点是它可持续的竞争优势。例如，它提供了现收现付模式，避免了SaaS股票经常觊觎的订阅。通过允许客户根据他们的存储需求和使用的雪花计算积分付费，它提供了一种高度透明和具有成本效益的运营模式。</blockquote></p><p> Even better, its platform islayered atop the most popular cloud infrastructure solutions, which makes the sharing of information seamless, regardless of storage provider.</p><p><blockquote>更好的是，它的平台位于最流行的云基础设施解决方案之上，这使得信息共享无缝，无论存储提供商是谁。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake has some very big shoes to fill with its lofty valuation, but Wall Street believes the company can get it done.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake 的高估值需要填补一些非常大的空缺，但华尔街相信该公司可以做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbafad9e87b7b7dacfefe92d4741b655\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> Datadog: Implied upside of 35%</p><p><blockquote>Datadog：隐含上涨空间为 35%</blockquote></p><p> Have I mentioned that Wall Street has a thing forSaaS stocks? In addition to Shopify and Snowflake, analysts believe that application monitoring solutions provider<b>Datadog</b>(NASDAQ:DDOG)could surge to $121 a share over the next year. This implies up to 35% upside in its shares.</p><p><blockquote>我有没有提到华尔街对股票情有独钟？除了 Shopify 和 Snowflake 之外，分析师认为应用程序监控解决方案提供商<b>数据狗</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：DDOG）明年可能会飙升至每股 121 美元。这意味着其股价有高达 35% 的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Keeping with the theme, Datadog looks to benefit from businesses completely shifting their strategy in the wake of the pandemic. With employees working remotely, it's become more important than ever that businesses stay on top of key metrics, oversee critical applications, and fully understand the behavior of their customers. Datadog's cloud-based solutions do all of this for its clients.</p><p><blockquote>与主题保持一致，Datadog希望从疫情后企业完全改变战略中受益。随着员工远程工作，企业掌握关键指标、监督关键应用程序并充分了解客户行为变得比以往任何时候都更加重要。Datadog基于云的解决方案为其客户做到了这一切。</blockquote></p><p> What's been most impressive about Datadog is the company's ability to attract bigger clients. While a 46% increase in customers with at least $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR) is nice, the \"wow\" number is the 94% increase in the number of customers generating at least $1 million in ARR. This is a big reason the company's sales shot 66% higher in 2020 to $603.5 million.</p><p><blockquote>Datadog最令人印象深刻的是该公司吸引更大客户的能力。虽然年经常性收入(ARR)至少为10万美元的客户增加了46%是不错的，但“令人惊叹”的数字是产生至少100万美元ARR的客户数量增加了94%。这是该公司2020年销售额增长66%至6.035亿美元的一个重要原因。</blockquote></p><p> Similar to Snowflake, Datadog has a lot to prove with its lofty price-to-sales ratio. However, if it can continue to grow its sales by more than 30% annually, there'sno reason Wall Street's price target isn't within reach.</p><p><blockquote>与 Snowflake 类似，Datadog 的高市销率有很多需要证明的地方。然而，如果它的销售额能够继续以每年30%以上的速度增长，那么华尔街的价格目标就没有理由无法实现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b3853458b2424e2901821012f5502f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> Coinbase: Implied upside of 56%</p><p><blockquote>Coinbase：隐含上涨空间 56%</blockquote></p><p> Finally, recent initial public offering<b>Coinbase</b>(NASDAQ:COIN)offers the highest perceived upside among these five fast-growing companies. Though there were only four price targets listed through this past weekend, a lofty target of $600 a share skewed the consensus up to $456 a share. This suggests Coinbase could gain 56% over the coming 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>最后，最近的首次公开募股<b>比特币基地</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）在这五家快速增长的公司中提供了最高的感知上涨空间。尽管截至上周末只有四个目标价，但每股 600 美元的高目标使共识偏离至每股 456 美元。这表明 Coinbase 在未来 12 个月内可能会上涨 56%。</blockquote></p><p> There's no doubt that Coinbase has benefited from the euphoria surrounding cryptocurrencies like<b>Bitcoin</b>and&nbsp;<b>Ethereum</b>. With both rallying to new highs this year, Coinbase recorded $1.8 billion in revenue in the first quarter. For some context, that's more revenue than it had generated in the previous 24 months combined!</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，Coinbase 受益于围绕加密货币的狂热，例如<b>比特币</b>和<b>以太币</b>随着今年两者都创下新高，Coinbase 第一季度的收入达到 18 亿美元。在某些情况下，这比它过去 24 个月产生的收入总和还要多!</blockquote></p><p> However, unlike the other popular companies listed here,Coinbase's advantages look flimsy, at best. It runs the risk of competing crypto brokerages undercutting its fees, which could reduce its operating margins and growth rate dramatically over time.</p><p><blockquote>然而，与这里列出的其他热门公司不同，Coinbase 的优势充其量看起来很脆弱。它面临着竞争加密货币经纪公司降低费用的风险，这可能会随着时间的推移大幅降低其营业利润率和增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore,its business model looks to be built upon euphoria&nbsp;rather than innovation. With most of its revenue coming from Bitcoin and Ethereum trading, it's worrisome to see what happens when the price of these key assets stops rising. In a two-year stretch where Bitcoin lost 80% of its value, Coinbase saw its revenue nearly get halved.</p><p><blockquote>此外， 它的商业模式看起来建立在兴奋而不是创新的基础上。由于其大部分收入来自比特币和以太币交易，当这些关键资产的价格停止上涨时会发生什么令人担忧。在比特币价值损失 80% 的两年时间里，Coinbase 的收入几乎减半。</blockquote></p><p> In sum, Wall Street may be bullish on Coinbase, but this Fool isn't.</p><p><blockquote>总之，华尔街可能看好比特币基地，但这个傻瓜并不看好。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Ultra-Popular Growth Stocks With 28% to 56% Upside, According to Wall Street<blockquote>华尔街称 5 只超受欢迎的成长型股票，上涨空间为 28% 至 56%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Ultra-Popular Growth Stocks With 28% to 56% Upside, According to Wall Street<blockquote>华尔街称 5 只超受欢迎的成长型股票，上涨空间为 28% 至 56%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-28 19:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For 13 months, Wall Street has proved virtually unstoppable. Since hitting a bear market bottom on March 23, 2020, the broad-based<b>S&amp;P 500</b>has galloped higher by 87%, through this past weekend. This handily outpaces the average bounce-back rally from a bear-market bottom and leaves the historic average annual return for the benchmark index eating dust.</p><p><blockquote>13个月来，华尔街几乎是不可阻挡的。自2020年3月23日触及熊市底部以来，基础广泛的<b>标普500</b>上周末上涨了 87%。这轻松超过了熊市底部的平均反弹，并使基准指数的历史平均年回报率化为乌有。</blockquote></p><p> Yet even at these lofty levels, Wall Street professionals see value. Based on the consensus one-year price targets of Wall Street analysts, five of the most populargrowth stocksoffer implied upside ranging from a low of 28% to as much as 56%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，即使在这些崇高的水平上，华尔街专业人士也看到了价值。根据华尔街分析师一致的一年目标价，五只最受欢迎的成长型股票暗示上涨空间从最低的 28% 到高达 56%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d19c9dd5972bb303415e3fb9e20fb2d4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> Shopify: Implied upside of 31%</p><p><blockquote>Shopify：隐含上涨空间 31%</blockquote></p><p> First up is my absolute favorite software-as-a-service (SaaS) stock,<b>Shopify</b>(NYSE:SHOP). Even after gaining more than 1,000% over the past 3.5 years, Wall Street believes the company's stock offers an additional 31% upside to $1,434 a share over the next year.</p><p><blockquote>首先是我最喜欢的软件即服务（SaaS）股票，<b>商店</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：商店）。即使在过去 3.5 年上涨超过 1,000% 之后，华尔街认为该公司的股票明年仍将上涨 31%，达到每股 1,434 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Shopify's operating model of providing cloud-based e-commerce solutions to (primarily) small businessescouldn't be in a better place at the moment. Although it was initially hit by the pandemic with virtually all other retail-oriented companies, it quickly became apparent that Shopify's e-commerce platform would be a logical beneficiary as businesses shifted course and pushed online. The result was a 96% increase in gross merchandise value (GMV) transacted across its platform in 2020 to $119.6 billion. Over the past six years, GMV has grown at a compound annual rate of 77.7%.</p><p><blockquote>Shopify 为（主要）小型企业提供基于云的电子商务解决方案的运营模式目前再好不过了。尽管 Shopify 最初与几乎所有其他面向零售的公司一起受到了疫情的打击，但随着企业转变方向并转向线上，Shopify 的电子商务平台很快就变得显而易见，它将成为一个合乎逻辑的受益者。结果是，2020 年其平台上的商品总价值 (GMV) 增长了 96%，达到 1196 亿美元。在过去的六年里，GMV以77.7%的复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> What's made Shopify tick is both the discovery of the platform by new merchants and the ability to snag worthwhile deals with major retailers. The number of consumers using the platform increased by approximately 52% last year to 457 million. Meanwhile, itpartneredwith the likes of<b>Walmart</b>&nbsp;and<b>Pinterest</b>to streamline aspects of their online sales platforms.</p><p><blockquote>让Shopify成功的是新商家对该平台的发现，以及与主要零售商达成有价值交易的能力。去年使用该平台的消费者数量增加了约52%，达到4.57亿。同时，它还与<b>沃尔玛</b>和<b>Pinterest</b>简化其在线销售平台的各个方面。</blockquote></p><p> Shopify isn't remotely inexpensive on a fundamental basis. But if it can continue to grow its GMV at these insane levels, investors will gladly pay a hefty premium to own Shopify stock.</p><p><blockquote>从根本上来说，Shopify 一点也不便宜。但如果它能够继续以这些疯狂的水平增长其 GMV，投资者将很乐意支付高额溢价来持有 Shopify 股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df219df7b01fbc2aa008c455f28b99e5\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> Teladoc Health: Implied upside of 40%</p><p><blockquote>Teladoc Health：隐含上涨空间为 40%</blockquote></p><p> Telemedicine giant<b>Teladoc Health</b>(NYSE:TDOC)has been exceptionally popular over the past year, for obvious reasons I'll touch on in a moment. According to Wall Street, shares of Teladoc could ascend past $250 over the next 12 months, giving it an implied upside of 40%.</p><p><blockquote>远程医疗巨头<b>泰拉多克健康</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TDOC）在过去的一年里非常受欢迎，原因显而易见，我稍后会谈到。据华尔街报道，Teladoc 的股价在未来 12 个月内可能会升至 250 美元以上，隐含上涨空间为 40%。</blockquote></p><p> As you can imagine, physicians wanted to keep at-risk people and potentially infected patients out of offices and hospitals if at all possible last year. This led to Teladoc handling almost 10.6 million virtual visits in 2020, up from around 4.1 million in the previous year.</p><p><blockquote>你可以想象，去年，如果可能的话，医生们希望让高危人群和潜在感染的患者远离办公室和医院。这导致Teladoc在2020年处理了近1060万次虚拟访问，高于前一年的约410万次。</blockquote></p><p> But understand that telehealth is agame-changing healthcare modeland not just a one-year wonder because of the pandemic. It's far more convenient for patients, allows physicians to keep closer tabs on at-risk patients, and is usually billed at a lower rate than office visits, which health insurers love. These advantages are exactly why Teladoc's sales grew by an average annual rate of 74% between 2013 and 2019.</p><p><blockquote>但是要明白，远程医疗是一种改变游戏规则的医疗保健模式，而不仅仅是疫情一年的奇迹。这对患者来说方便得多，可以让医生更密切地关注高危患者，而且通常比健康保险公司喜欢的诊所就诊收费更低。这些优势正是 Teladoc 销售额在 2013 年至 2019 年间年均增长率为 74% 的原因。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, Teladoc has a new toy, so to speak: Itacquired leading applied health signals company Livongo Healthin early November. Livongo leans on artificial intelligence to send tips and nudges to patients with chronic illnesses. These nudges help patients make behavioral changes that result in their leading healthier lives. The addition of Livongo makes Teladoc a veritable no-brainer buy.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Teladoc 可以说有一个新玩具：它在 11 月初收购了领先的应用健康信号公司 Livongo Healthin。Livongo依靠人工智能向慢性病患者发送提示和轻推。这些推动有助于患者做出行为改变，从而过上更健康的生活。Livongo 的加入使得 Teladoc 成为名副其实的明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e47e6b6eced3a10e200ffd777619a0c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake: Implied upside of 28%</p><p><blockquote>雪花：隐含上涨空间为 28%</blockquote></p><p> Another high-growth stock with abundant upside according to Wall Street professionals is cloud data warehousing company<b>Snowflake</b>(NYSE:SNOW). After recently retracing to an all-time low, analysts see Snowflake gaining up to 28% to almost $301 a share over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街专业人士认为，另一只具有巨大上涨空间的高增长股票是云数据仓库公司<b>雪花</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：雪）。在最近回落至历史低点后，分析师预计 Snowflake 将在未来 12 个月内上涨 28%，达到每股近 301 美元。</blockquote></p><p> As I alluded to with Shopify, we're witnessing a big push by businesses online and into the cloud, which has been a boon for most cloud infrastructure companies. Despite the worst economic downturn in decades, Snowflake grew its product revenue by 120% to $553.8 million in fiscal 2021. Although it's losing a lot of money at the moment, the services Snowflake offers should yield juicy margins as the company matures.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在Shopify中提到的，我们正在目睹企业大力推动在线和云，这对大多数云基础设施公司来说都是一个福音。尽管经历了几十年来最严重的经济衰退，Snowflake 在 2021 财年的产品收入仍增长了 120%，达到 5.538 亿美元。尽管目前亏损很多，但随着公司的成熟，雪花提供的服务应该会产生丰厚的利润。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Arguably the most interesting thing about Snowflake is itssustainable competitive advantages. For instance, it offers a pay-as-you-go model that shuns the subscriptions that SaaS stocks often covet. By allowing its customers to pay based on their storage needs and Snowflake Compute Credits used, it's offering a highly transparent and cost-effective operating model.</p><p><blockquote>可以说，雪花最有趣的一点是它可持续的竞争优势。例如，它提供了现收现付模式，避免了SaaS股票经常觊觎的订阅。通过允许客户根据他们的存储需求和使用的雪花计算积分付费，它提供了一种高度透明和具有成本效益的运营模式。</blockquote></p><p> Even better, its platform islayered atop the most popular cloud infrastructure solutions, which makes the sharing of information seamless, regardless of storage provider.</p><p><blockquote>更好的是，它的平台位于最流行的云基础设施解决方案之上，这使得信息共享无缝，无论存储提供商是谁。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake has some very big shoes to fill with its lofty valuation, but Wall Street believes the company can get it done.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake 的高估值需要填补一些非常大的空缺，但华尔街相信该公司可以做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbafad9e87b7b7dacfefe92d4741b655\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> Datadog: Implied upside of 35%</p><p><blockquote>Datadog：隐含上涨空间为 35%</blockquote></p><p> Have I mentioned that Wall Street has a thing forSaaS stocks? In addition to Shopify and Snowflake, analysts believe that application monitoring solutions provider<b>Datadog</b>(NASDAQ:DDOG)could surge to $121 a share over the next year. This implies up to 35% upside in its shares.</p><p><blockquote>我有没有提到华尔街对股票情有独钟？除了 Shopify 和 Snowflake 之外，分析师认为应用程序监控解决方案提供商<b>数据狗</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：DDOG）明年可能会飙升至每股 121 美元。这意味着其股价有高达 35% 的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Keeping with the theme, Datadog looks to benefit from businesses completely shifting their strategy in the wake of the pandemic. With employees working remotely, it's become more important than ever that businesses stay on top of key metrics, oversee critical applications, and fully understand the behavior of their customers. Datadog's cloud-based solutions do all of this for its clients.</p><p><blockquote>与主题保持一致，Datadog希望从疫情后企业完全改变战略中受益。随着员工远程工作，企业掌握关键指标、监督关键应用程序并充分了解客户行为变得比以往任何时候都更加重要。Datadog基于云的解决方案为其客户做到了这一切。</blockquote></p><p> What's been most impressive about Datadog is the company's ability to attract bigger clients. While a 46% increase in customers with at least $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR) is nice, the \"wow\" number is the 94% increase in the number of customers generating at least $1 million in ARR. This is a big reason the company's sales shot 66% higher in 2020 to $603.5 million.</p><p><blockquote>Datadog最令人印象深刻的是该公司吸引更大客户的能力。虽然年经常性收入(ARR)至少为10万美元的客户增加了46%是不错的，但“令人惊叹”的数字是产生至少100万美元ARR的客户数量增加了94%。这是该公司2020年销售额增长66%至6.035亿美元的一个重要原因。</blockquote></p><p> Similar to Snowflake, Datadog has a lot to prove with its lofty price-to-sales ratio. However, if it can continue to grow its sales by more than 30% annually, there'sno reason Wall Street's price target isn't within reach.</p><p><blockquote>与 Snowflake 类似，Datadog 的高市销率有很多需要证明的地方。然而，如果它的销售额能够继续以每年30%以上的速度增长，那么华尔街的价格目标就没有理由无法实现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b3853458b2424e2901821012f5502f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> Coinbase: Implied upside of 56%</p><p><blockquote>Coinbase：隐含上涨空间 56%</blockquote></p><p> Finally, recent initial public offering<b>Coinbase</b>(NASDAQ:COIN)offers the highest perceived upside among these five fast-growing companies. Though there were only four price targets listed through this past weekend, a lofty target of $600 a share skewed the consensus up to $456 a share. This suggests Coinbase could gain 56% over the coming 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>最后，最近的首次公开募股<b>比特币基地</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）在这五家快速增长的公司中提供了最高的感知上涨空间。尽管截至上周末只有四个目标价，但每股 600 美元的高目标使共识偏离至每股 456 美元。这表明 Coinbase 在未来 12 个月内可能会上涨 56%。</blockquote></p><p> There's no doubt that Coinbase has benefited from the euphoria surrounding cryptocurrencies like<b>Bitcoin</b>and&nbsp;<b>Ethereum</b>. With both rallying to new highs this year, Coinbase recorded $1.8 billion in revenue in the first quarter. For some context, that's more revenue than it had generated in the previous 24 months combined!</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，Coinbase 受益于围绕加密货币的狂热，例如<b>比特币</b>和<b>以太币</b>随着今年两者都创下新高，Coinbase 第一季度的收入达到 18 亿美元。在某些情况下，这比它过去 24 个月产生的收入总和还要多!</blockquote></p><p> However, unlike the other popular companies listed here,Coinbase's advantages look flimsy, at best. It runs the risk of competing crypto brokerages undercutting its fees, which could reduce its operating margins and growth rate dramatically over time.</p><p><blockquote>然而，与这里列出的其他热门公司不同，Coinbase 的优势充其量看起来很脆弱。它面临着竞争加密货币经纪公司降低费用的风险，这可能会随着时间的推移大幅降低其营业利润率和增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore,its business model looks to be built upon euphoria&nbsp;rather than innovation. With most of its revenue coming from Bitcoin and Ethereum trading, it's worrisome to see what happens when the price of these key assets stops rising. In a two-year stretch where Bitcoin lost 80% of its value, Coinbase saw its revenue nearly get halved.</p><p><blockquote>此外， 它的商业模式看起来建立在兴奋而不是创新的基础上。由于其大部分收入来自比特币和以太币交易，当这些关键资产的价格停止上涨时会发生什么令人担忧。在比特币价值损失 80% 的两年时间里，Coinbase 的收入几乎减半。</blockquote></p><p> In sum, Wall Street may be bullish on Coinbase, but this Fool isn't.</p><p><blockquote>总之，华尔街可能看好比特币基地，但这个傻瓜并不看好。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/28/5-growth-stocks-with-28-to-56-upside-wall-street/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DDOG":"Datadog","SHOP":"Shopify Inc","SNOW":"Snowflake","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/28/5-growth-stocks-with-28-to-56-upside-wall-street/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138128459","content_text":"For 13 months, Wall Street has proved virtually unstoppable. Since hitting a bear market bottom on March 23, 2020, the broad-basedS&P 500has galloped higher by 87%, through this past weekend. This handily outpaces the average bounce-back rally from a bear-market bottom and leaves the historic average annual return for the benchmark index eating dust.\nYet even at these lofty levels, Wall Street professionals see value. Based on the consensus one-year price targets of Wall Street analysts, five of the most populargrowth stocksoffer implied upside ranging from a low of 28% to as much as 56%.\n\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nShopify: Implied upside of 31%\nFirst up is my absolute favorite software-as-a-service (SaaS) stock,Shopify(NYSE:SHOP). Even after gaining more than 1,000% over the past 3.5 years, Wall Street believes the company's stock offers an additional 31% upside to $1,434 a share over the next year.\nShopify's operating model of providing cloud-based e-commerce solutions to (primarily) small businessescouldn't be in a better place at the moment. Although it was initially hit by the pandemic with virtually all other retail-oriented companies, it quickly became apparent that Shopify's e-commerce platform would be a logical beneficiary as businesses shifted course and pushed online. The result was a 96% increase in gross merchandise value (GMV) transacted across its platform in 2020 to $119.6 billion. Over the past six years, GMV has grown at a compound annual rate of 77.7%.\nWhat's made Shopify tick is both the discovery of the platform by new merchants and the ability to snag worthwhile deals with major retailers. The number of consumers using the platform increased by approximately 52% last year to 457 million. Meanwhile, itpartneredwith the likes ofWalmart andPinterestto streamline aspects of their online sales platforms.\nShopify isn't remotely inexpensive on a fundamental basis. But if it can continue to grow its GMV at these insane levels, investors will gladly pay a hefty premium to own Shopify stock.\n\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nTeladoc Health: Implied upside of 40%\nTelemedicine giantTeladoc Health(NYSE:TDOC)has been exceptionally popular over the past year, for obvious reasons I'll touch on in a moment. According to Wall Street, shares of Teladoc could ascend past $250 over the next 12 months, giving it an implied upside of 40%.\nAs you can imagine, physicians wanted to keep at-risk people and potentially infected patients out of offices and hospitals if at all possible last year. This led to Teladoc handling almost 10.6 million virtual visits in 2020, up from around 4.1 million in the previous year.\nBut understand that telehealth is agame-changing healthcare modeland not just a one-year wonder because of the pandemic. It's far more convenient for patients, allows physicians to keep closer tabs on at-risk patients, and is usually billed at a lower rate than office visits, which health insurers love. These advantages are exactly why Teladoc's sales grew by an average annual rate of 74% between 2013 and 2019.\nFurthermore, Teladoc has a new toy, so to speak: Itacquired leading applied health signals company Livongo Healthin early November. Livongo leans on artificial intelligence to send tips and nudges to patients with chronic illnesses. These nudges help patients make behavioral changes that result in their leading healthier lives. The addition of Livongo makes Teladoc a veritable no-brainer buy.\n\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nSnowflake: Implied upside of 28%\nAnother high-growth stock with abundant upside according to Wall Street professionals is cloud data warehousing companySnowflake(NYSE:SNOW). After recently retracing to an all-time low, analysts see Snowflake gaining up to 28% to almost $301 a share over the next 12 months.\nAs I alluded to with Shopify, we're witnessing a big push by businesses online and into the cloud, which has been a boon for most cloud infrastructure companies. Despite the worst economic downturn in decades, Snowflake grew its product revenue by 120% to $553.8 million in fiscal 2021. Although it's losing a lot of money at the moment, the services Snowflake offers should yield juicy margins as the company matures.\nArguably the most interesting thing about Snowflake is itssustainable competitive advantages. For instance, it offers a pay-as-you-go model that shuns the subscriptions that SaaS stocks often covet. By allowing its customers to pay based on their storage needs and Snowflake Compute Credits used, it's offering a highly transparent and cost-effective operating model.\nEven better, its platform islayered atop the most popular cloud infrastructure solutions, which makes the sharing of information seamless, regardless of storage provider.\nSnowflake has some very big shoes to fill with its lofty valuation, but Wall Street believes the company can get it done.\n\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nDatadog: Implied upside of 35%\nHave I mentioned that Wall Street has a thing forSaaS stocks? In addition to Shopify and Snowflake, analysts believe that application monitoring solutions providerDatadog(NASDAQ:DDOG)could surge to $121 a share over the next year. This implies up to 35% upside in its shares.\nKeeping with the theme, Datadog looks to benefit from businesses completely shifting their strategy in the wake of the pandemic. With employees working remotely, it's become more important than ever that businesses stay on top of key metrics, oversee critical applications, and fully understand the behavior of their customers. Datadog's cloud-based solutions do all of this for its clients.\nWhat's been most impressive about Datadog is the company's ability to attract bigger clients. While a 46% increase in customers with at least $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR) is nice, the \"wow\" number is the 94% increase in the number of customers generating at least $1 million in ARR. This is a big reason the company's sales shot 66% higher in 2020 to $603.5 million.\nSimilar to Snowflake, Datadog has a lot to prove with its lofty price-to-sales ratio. However, if it can continue to grow its sales by more than 30% annually, there'sno reason Wall Street's price target isn't within reach.\n\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nCoinbase: Implied upside of 56%\nFinally, recent initial public offeringCoinbase(NASDAQ:COIN)offers the highest perceived upside among these five fast-growing companies. Though there were only four price targets listed through this past weekend, a lofty target of $600 a share skewed the consensus up to $456 a share. This suggests Coinbase could gain 56% over the coming 12 months.\nThere's no doubt that Coinbase has benefited from the euphoria surrounding cryptocurrencies likeBitcoinand Ethereum. With both rallying to new highs this year, Coinbase recorded $1.8 billion in revenue in the first quarter. For some context, that's more revenue than it had generated in the previous 24 months combined!\nHowever, unlike the other popular companies listed here,Coinbase's advantages look flimsy, at best. It runs the risk of competing crypto brokerages undercutting its fees, which could reduce its operating margins and growth rate dramatically over time.\nFurthermore,its business model looks to be built upon euphoria rather than innovation. With most of its revenue coming from Bitcoin and Ethereum trading, it's worrisome to see what happens when the price of these key assets stops rising. In a two-year stretch where Bitcoin lost 80% of its value, Coinbase saw its revenue nearly get halved.\nIn sum, Wall Street may be bullish on Coinbase, but this Fool isn't.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNOW":0.9,"SHOP":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"DDOG":0.9,"TDOC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181388639,"gmtCreate":1623374153121,"gmtModify":1634034056049,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573467004161906","idStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"great innovation !&nbsp;","listText":"great innovation !&nbsp;","text":"great innovation !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181388639","repostId":"1132770051","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":989,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180748275,"gmtCreate":1623229172597,"gmtModify":1634035585273,"author":{"id":"3573467004161906","authorId":"3573467004161906","name":"chinlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dd0c92b6472d7ab9f701584a7f0d60","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573467004161906","idStr":"3573467004161906"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"u can do&nbsp;it tesla","listText":"u can do&nbsp;it tesla","text":"u can do it tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180748275","repostId":"1133238185","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":646,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}