daryllee的个人主页 - 老虎社区

daryllee

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2022-01-29

Nice

Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>

2022-01-21

Okay

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-30

I see

Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>

2021-12-27

=)

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-19

Okay

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-16

Nice

Why analysts love Apple right now<blockquote>为什么分析师现在喜欢苹果</blockquote>

2021-12-16

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-06

Like please

Apple Stock Is an Attractive Buy, Says KeyBanc. Price Target Set at $191.<blockquote>KeyBanc 表示，苹果股票很有吸引力。目标价定为 191 美元。</blockquote>

2021-12-02

Agree

@Juliusgreyy:$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$Grab is still too early to be vest for long term. It will be a crazy ride of ups n down after IPO

2021-12-01

How did you get 227?

@mumu b:$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$tthis short rate is at 227% and short float 41%. Wtf. this is going to be the next gme.

2021-11-30

Like please

Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading<blockquote>部分电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>

2021-11-30

Like please

Wait For a Better Entry Point in Red-Hot Lucid Stock<blockquote>等待炙手可热的 Lucid 股票更好的切入点</blockquote>

2021-11-26

Like

Has Cathie Wood Lost Her Touch?<blockquote>凯西·伍德失去了触觉吗？</blockquote>

2021-11-22

Whao

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-21

👍

SPAC Altimeter Growth jumps after setting vote date for Grab deal<blockquote>SPAC Altimeter 在设定 Grab 交易投票日期后增长迅速</blockquote>

2021-11-19

Similar to GRAB?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-16

Agree

@鸡蛋壳里的风暴:$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 老虎软件里当日盈亏的显示就是搞笑用的

2021-11-16

$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$1 agc for 1 grab shares?

2021-11-13

Nice

Palantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度超出预期，自由现金流增加，提高指引，但抛售创造机会</blockquote>

2021-11-12

Interesting

抱歉，原内容已删除

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16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157223555","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve wi","content":"<p><div> Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.Economists led by Jan ...</p><p><blockquote><div>高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的经济学家与华尔街同行一起预测，美联储将比此前预期更积极地加息。以Jan为首的经济学家……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-29 16:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.Economists led by Jan ...</p><p><blockquote><div>高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的经济学家与华尔街同行一起预测，美联储将比此前预期更积极地加息。以Jan为首的经济学家……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157223555","content_text":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630868994,"gmtCreate":1642776542089,"gmtModify":1642776542240,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630868994","repostId":"2205410130","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692129051,"gmtCreate":1640877659766,"gmtModify":1640877659898,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I see","listText":"I see","text":"I see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692129051","repostId":"1106092668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106092668","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640876653,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1106092668?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106092668","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Unde","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited 股价早盘上涨超过 4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解近期抛售情况</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited 是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售情况并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为 Sea 是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对 Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）各部门的部分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长驱动力可能会带来惊喜，并在未来几年带来非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我 2022 年的十大精选股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为以一篇关于海洋的文章来结束这一年会很好。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不猜测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了我的Sea股票。这是我为数不多的亏损头寸之一，我没有为了税收损失而暂时卖出，在这篇文章中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此高的信念。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>同样值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea 是全球第 121 大公司，但在对冲基金中却是第 16 大最受欢迎的持股。这意味着，大钱是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份由机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于 Sea 在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在未来几年内推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited 的游戏部门 Garena 以内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有Android游戏中拥有第二多的月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内发售，但在东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、部落冲突和Pokemon Go——但还有更多的游戏被遗忘了。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也能成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个一鸣惊人的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena 是 Sea 的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是一个为 Sea 非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea 最近抛售的原因之一可能是 Garena 暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：盈利看涨期权演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena 将 2021 年预订指引上调至 $4.5B-$4.7B（从 $4.3B-$4.5B）。前三个季度的预订总额已经达到$3.5B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0B-$1.2B，同比增长0%至20%，并可能随后下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为 29%，全年的预计增长率为 44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然 20% 并不是可怕的减速，但 0% 肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是 20% 的增长也并不引人注目。在 10% 的中点，Garena 的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或 Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是 Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena 的隐含估值应该——而且确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena 的利润比他们略高，上行风险可能更大，因此我将使用 5 倍的市盈率作为我的隐含估值。这意味着对于一个以10%左右的速度增长的企业来说，市盈率约为10，这在当今的市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层的高端指导，Garena 的价值为 $23.5B。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我认为这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，未来几年甚至明年的增长可能会再次加速，特别是如果Garena发布了一款新的热门游戏。下一季度的增长率并非基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自过去一年也处于估值范围低端的公司。</li><li>Garena有着良好的业绩记录，并继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至增加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，名为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着 Garena 认为 Free Fire 仍处于生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了 Free Fire 之外，Garena 还分发腾讯控股 (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY) 等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命召唤看涨期权》这样的热门游戏，有意义地分散了Garena的收入。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 的电子商务平台 Shopee 目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN），最近它扩展到了包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁才是一个地区的真正亚马逊，总有一些争论。Shopee 当然面临着竞争对手，包括阿里巴巴 (NYSE:BABA) 的 Lazada、印度尼西亚的 Tokopedia、巴西的 MercadoLibre (MELI)，甚至亚马逊本身。由于大多数竞争都是私营的或隐藏在一家更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。即使是Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常注重移动端，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store App排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动方面，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个列出的国家排名第一的购物应用程序。在移动优先的世界里，这是一个非常好的兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee 也获胜，除了在拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，它是一个不错的代理。第三方估计，Shopee 占东南亚所有电子商务的 57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额上的主导地位，让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家拥有如此巨大潜力的公司会被抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师表示担心，Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前，正在向波兰和墨西哥等其他国家拓展业务。在这些国家，Shopee的存在较少；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5名之间，在波兰的1-3名之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官评论说他们没有衡量这些早期国家成功的具体措施也无济于事——但 Shopee 有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试扩张更多。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子大小（平均购买大小）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子大小缩小，但整体销售额却大幅增长，这很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前指引 2021 年电子商务收入为 $5.0B-$5.2B。第四季度增长了 75%-100%，全年增长了约 135%。这些数字比游戏方面令人兴奋得多，尽管指导仍然暗示第四季度会略有放缓。但与亚马逊 2020 年 3400 亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee 看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济的增长速度普遍快于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但电子商务部门更难估值，因为它亏损运营（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee 的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低的周期性更强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管无利可图，Sea的40法则104分优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行亚马逊（21）、MercadoLibre（73）和阿里巴巴-SW（43）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为 4 倍。AWS 推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高曝光率抵消了这一数字。其他电子商务市场同行的估值也类似：阿里巴巴-SW市盈率为 3 倍，MercadoLibre 市盈率为 9 倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史最低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果 Shopee 在未来几年内保持收入翻番（自 2016 年以来，它每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率，那么今天的市盈率为 16 倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等更长的时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整体行业倍数扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为 16 倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或从未盈利，那么投资者会对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于如此广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到 Shopee 在移动领域的主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自 Garena 的资金，以及亚马逊、阿里巴巴-SW和 MercadoLibre 为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功开创的先例时，我对这一细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到目前这是一个无利可图且风险较高的领域，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很乐意支付 16 倍市盈率，这意味着电子商务部门的估值为 83.2B 美元。有些人会把看涨期权定得太高，这些人可能永远不会有机会投资这家公司，不管是好是坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅 Garena 和 Shopee，我的 Sea 价值为 106.7B 美元。其目前的市值为 123.1B 美元。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>对我计算的估值来说，最简单的补充是 Sea 的 120 亿美元现金堆，部分被 40 亿美元债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管在Shopee上亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B的现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7B，仅比实际估值少$8.4B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是 Sea 的金融科技部门 SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，它在上一季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年内约20亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为 1.32 亿美元，同比增长 818%。这意味着2.9%的“接受率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于如此高的接受率，我并不担心 SeaMoney 在扩展过程中会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 SeaMoney 是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以计入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这仅仅是个开始。五年前，没有人会想到一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天会比游戏部门更有价值。但 Sea 的管理层，加上 Garena 资助新细分市场并推动其病毒式采用的能力，使得这一目标得以实现。当然不能保证Sea会在金融科技方面取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值是Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率有点高16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于 Visa、万事达卡 (NYSE:MA) 和 Affirm (NASDAQ:AFRM)。实际上，一个同比增长 818% 的细分市场可能会获得比这些增长较慢的公司更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测公平的市盈率是多少，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用 16 倍市盈率来达到 Sea 目前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一种方式是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea 在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务领域采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea 正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是 Sea 投资者）和 Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这有着良好的先例。目前Sea的投资部门还处于非常早期的阶段，所以我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但这并不一定要被考虑在内来证明当前的股价是合理的。这只是有一天可能值得一大片海洋的又一个区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>查看 Sea 的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明 Sea 目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到较新细分市场的显著可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的很大一部分。随着金融科技领域目前的年增长率为818%，不需要太多的想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，金融科技领域就会让投资者无法忽视。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择结合了每项业务的整体实力，使得 Sea 在过去一年的平均收入增长了 7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将是我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数不盈利的公司一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但是，即使你把电子商务一路降到5倍市盈率（这是今天增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司看到的倍数），这也意味着比今天的价格下降了54%。这肯定是一个急剧下降，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会面临这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像 Sea 这样的快速增长的公司才能通过收入增长快速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业几乎不会以最保守的估值进行交易。海洋当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我可以看到这些公司在本十年内市值达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-30 23:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited 股价早盘上涨超过 4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解近期抛售情况</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited 是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售情况并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为 Sea 是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对 Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）各部门的部分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长驱动力可能会带来惊喜，并在未来几年带来非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我 2022 年的十大精选股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为以一篇关于海洋的文章来结束这一年会很好。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不猜测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了我的Sea股票。这是我为数不多的亏损头寸之一，我没有为了税收损失而暂时卖出，在这篇文章中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此高的信念。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>同样值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea 是全球第 121 大公司，但在对冲基金中却是第 16 大最受欢迎的持股。这意味着，大钱是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份由机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于 Sea 在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在未来几年内推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited 的游戏部门 Garena 以内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有Android游戏中拥有第二多的月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内发售，但在东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、部落冲突和Pokemon Go——但还有更多的游戏被遗忘了。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也能成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个一鸣惊人的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena 是 Sea 的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是一个为 Sea 非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea 最近抛售的原因之一可能是 Garena 暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：盈利看涨期权演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena 将 2021 年预订指引上调至 $4.5B-$4.7B（从 $4.3B-$4.5B）。前三个季度的预订总额已经达到$3.5B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0B-$1.2B，同比增长0%至20%，并可能随后下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为 29%，全年的预计增长率为 44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然 20% 并不是可怕的减速，但 0% 肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是 20% 的增长也并不引人注目。在 10% 的中点，Garena 的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或 Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是 Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena 的隐含估值应该——而且确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena 的利润比他们略高，上行风险可能更大，因此我将使用 5 倍的市盈率作为我的隐含估值。这意味着对于一个以10%左右的速度增长的企业来说，市盈率约为10，这在当今的市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层的高端指导，Garena 的价值为 $23.5B。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我认为这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，未来几年甚至明年的增长可能会再次加速，特别是如果Garena发布了一款新的热门游戏。下一季度的增长率并非基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自过去一年也处于估值范围低端的公司。</li><li>Garena有着良好的业绩记录，并继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至增加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，名为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着 Garena 认为 Free Fire 仍处于生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了 Free Fire 之外，Garena 还分发腾讯控股 (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY) 等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命召唤看涨期权》这样的热门游戏，有意义地分散了Garena的收入。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 的电子商务平台 Shopee 目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN），最近它扩展到了包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁才是一个地区的真正亚马逊，总有一些争论。Shopee 当然面临着竞争对手，包括阿里巴巴 (NYSE:BABA) 的 Lazada、印度尼西亚的 Tokopedia、巴西的 MercadoLibre (MELI)，甚至亚马逊本身。由于大多数竞争都是私营的或隐藏在一家更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。即使是Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常注重移动端，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store App排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动方面，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个列出的国家排名第一的购物应用程序。在移动优先的世界里，这是一个非常好的兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee 也获胜，除了在拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，它是一个不错的代理。第三方估计，Shopee 占东南亚所有电子商务的 57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额上的主导地位，让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家拥有如此巨大潜力的公司会被抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师表示担心，Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前，正在向波兰和墨西哥等其他国家拓展业务。在这些国家，Shopee的存在较少；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5名之间，在波兰的1-3名之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官评论说他们没有衡量这些早期国家成功的具体措施也无济于事——但 Shopee 有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试扩张更多。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子大小（平均购买大小）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子大小缩小，但整体销售额却大幅增长，这很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前指引 2021 年电子商务收入为 $5.0B-$5.2B。第四季度增长了 75%-100%，全年增长了约 135%。这些数字比游戏方面令人兴奋得多，尽管指导仍然暗示第四季度会略有放缓。但与亚马逊 2020 年 3400 亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee 看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济的增长速度普遍快于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但电子商务部门更难估值，因为它亏损运营（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee 的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低的周期性更强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管无利可图，Sea的40法则104分优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行亚马逊（21）、MercadoLibre（73）和阿里巴巴-SW（43）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为 4 倍。AWS 推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高曝光率抵消了这一数字。其他电子商务市场同行的估值也类似：阿里巴巴-SW市盈率为 3 倍，MercadoLibre 市盈率为 9 倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史最低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果 Shopee 在未来几年内保持收入翻番（自 2016 年以来，它每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率，那么今天的市盈率为 16 倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等更长的时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整体行业倍数扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为 16 倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或从未盈利，那么投资者会对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于如此广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到 Shopee 在移动领域的主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自 Garena 的资金，以及亚马逊、阿里巴巴-SW和 MercadoLibre 为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功开创的先例时，我对这一细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到目前这是一个无利可图且风险较高的领域，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很乐意支付 16 倍市盈率，这意味着电子商务部门的估值为 83.2B 美元。有些人会把看涨期权定得太高，这些人可能永远不会有机会投资这家公司，不管是好是坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅 Garena 和 Shopee，我的 Sea 价值为 106.7B 美元。其目前的市值为 123.1B 美元。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>对我计算的估值来说，最简单的补充是 Sea 的 120 亿美元现金堆，部分被 40 亿美元债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管在Shopee上亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B的现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7B，仅比实际估值少$8.4B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是 Sea 的金融科技部门 SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，它在上一季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年内约20亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为 1.32 亿美元，同比增长 818%。这意味着2.9%的“接受率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于如此高的接受率，我并不担心 SeaMoney 在扩展过程中会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 SeaMoney 是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以计入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这仅仅是个开始。五年前，没有人会想到一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天会比游戏部门更有价值。但 Sea 的管理层，加上 Garena 资助新细分市场并推动其病毒式采用的能力，使得这一目标得以实现。当然不能保证Sea会在金融科技方面取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值是Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率有点高16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于 Visa、万事达卡 (NYSE:MA) 和 Affirm (NASDAQ:AFRM)。实际上，一个同比增长 818% 的细分市场可能会获得比这些增长较慢的公司更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测公平的市盈率是多少，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用 16 倍市盈率来达到 Sea 目前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一种方式是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea 在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务领域采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea 正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是 Sea 投资者）和 Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这有着良好的先例。目前Sea的投资部门还处于非常早期的阶段，所以我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但这并不一定要被考虑在内来证明当前的股价是合理的。这只是有一天可能值得一大片海洋的又一个区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>查看 Sea 的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明 Sea 目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到较新细分市场的显著可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的很大一部分。随着金融科技领域目前的年增长率为818%，不需要太多的想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，金融科技领域就会让投资者无法忽视。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择结合了每项业务的整体实力，使得 Sea 在过去一年的平均收入增长了 7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将是我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数不盈利的公司一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但是，即使你把电子商务一路降到5倍市盈率（这是今天增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司看到的倍数），这也意味着比今天的价格下降了54%。这肯定是一个急剧下降，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会面临这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像 Sea 这样的快速增长的公司才能通过收入增长快速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业几乎不会以最保守的估值进行交易。海洋当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我可以看到这些公司在本十年内市值达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106092668","content_text":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent SelloffSummarySea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesThesisA by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.IntroductionI recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.GamingSea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.Source: Earnings Call PresentationIn Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.E-CommerceSea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.Source: The Author, compiled from AlexaShopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnieOn the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.So why would a company with so much potential sell off?After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.FinTech & InvestmentsThe easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.ConclusionLooking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696367312,"gmtCreate":1640620260240,"gmtModify":1640620260395,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"=)","listText":"=)","text":"=)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696367312","repostId":"1191134006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693082951,"gmtCreate":1639929026745,"gmtModify":1639929026845,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693082951","repostId":"2192035909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690661878,"gmtCreate":1639664553540,"gmtModify":1639664553714,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690661878","repostId":"1121295991","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121295991","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639664163,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121295991?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 22:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why analysts love Apple right now<blockquote>为什么分析师现在喜欢苹果</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121295991","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Apple’s  market capitalization is once again closing in on $3 trillion. If and when it hits the mark, which will require shares to reach $182.86, Apple will be in historic territory. And analysts are loving it.This month alone, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley, Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan, and Amit Daryanani of Evercore ISI have raised their price targets on the stock to $200. And on Tuesday BofA Global Research’s Wamsi Mohan upgraded the stock from neutral to buy and raised his price target for ","content":"<p>Apple’s (AAPL) market capitalization is once again closing in on $3 trillion. If and when it hits the mark, which will require shares to reach $182.86, Apple will be in historic territory. And analysts are loving it.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）的市值再次接近 3 万亿美元。如果达到要求股价达到 182.86 美元的大关，苹果将处于历史区间。分析师们很喜欢它。</blockquote></p><p> This month alone, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley, Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan, and Amit Daryanani of Evercore ISI have raised their price targets on the stock to $200. And on Tuesday BofA Global Research’s Wamsi Mohan upgraded the stock from neutral to buy and raised his price target for shares to $210.</p><p><blockquote>仅本月，摩根士丹利的 Katy Huberty、摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee 和 Evercore ISI 的 Amit Daryanani 就将该股目标价上调至 200 美元。本周二，美国银行全球研究公司（BofA Global Research）的瓦姆西-莫汉（Wamsi Mohan）将该股评级从中性上调至买入，并将目标价上调至 210 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Several factors are spurring analysts to fawn over Apple: Optimism for Apple’s iPhone, its coming products including its rumored AR/VR headset, and the company’s ability to suck in consumers and keep them there through its services business.</p><p><blockquote>有几个因素促使分析师们对苹果趋之若鹜： 对苹果 iPhone、即将推出的产品（包括传闻中的 AR/VR 头显）的乐观态度，以及该公司通过服务业务吸引消费者并留住消费者的能力。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect Apple to introduce an augmented reality/virtual reality (AR/VR) headset, either by the end of 2022 or early 2023,” Mohan wrote in a recent analyst note. “We view this technology as a game-changer as it will enable many new applications which will require high performance hardware and higher access speeds.”</p><p><blockquote>“莫汉在最近的一份分析师报告中写道：”我们预计苹果将在 2022 年底或 2023 年初推出增强现实/虚拟现实（AR/VR）头显。“我们认为这项技术将改变游戏规则，因为它将实现许多需要高性能硬件和更高访问速度的新应用。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s AR/VR headset,according to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, could cost upwards of $3,000 and be geared to gaming, entertainment, and communications. The headset has been rumored for some time, with Apple filing various patents related to the technology.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社记者马克-古尔曼（Mark Gurman）报道，苹果的 AR/VR 头显售价可能高达 3000 美元，主要用于游戏、娱乐和通信。这款耳机的传闻已经有一段时间了，苹果已经申请了与该技术相关的各种专利。</blockquote></p><p> “I think what a number of people and investors are thinking about is, ‘Hey, if they move to the glasses, the AR and VR glasses that a lot of people expect to see in '22, that's another opportunity to really build on this incredible ecosystem of device owners, and iOS, and Mac OS holders that really love their devices,’ ” TECHnalysis Research president Bob O’Donnell told Yahoo Finance Live.</p><p><blockquote>“TECHnalysis Research 总裁鲍勃-奥唐纳（Bob O'Donnell）告诉雅虎财经直播：”我认为很多人和投资者都在想，'嘿，如果他们转向眼镜，也就是很多人期待在 22 年看到的 AR 和 VR 眼镜，那将是另一个真正建立在这个由设备所有者、iOS 和 Mac OS 用户组成的令人难以置信的生态系统基础上的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s Services business, which includes its App Store, is one of the major sticking points the company has going for it. After all, if you own an iPhone, you’re going to buy apps, and when it’s time to get a new phone you’ll likely buy another iPhone to keep those apps.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的服务业务（包括 App Store）是该公司的主要症结之一。毕竟，如果你拥有一部 iPhone，你就会购买应用程序，而到了换新手机的时候，你很可能会再买一部 iPhone 来保存这些应用程序。</blockquote></p><p> The same idea would apply to the company’s AR/VR headset if Apple can wrangle the kind of third-party developer support it already enjoys on the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果能在 iPhone 上获得第三方开发者支持，那么同样的想法也适用于该公司的 AR/VR 头显。</blockquote></p><p> “We see the potential for more Services monetization relative to iPad as use cases develop beyond gaming and remote servicing and evolve into a whole new way in which the world digitally interacts, which AR/VR experts we've spoken with view as the long-term killer AR/VR application,” Huberty wrote in a Dec. 7 analyst note.</p><p><blockquote>“休伯蒂在 12 月 7 日的一份分析师报告中写道：”我们看到，随着用例超越游戏和远程服务，发展成为一种全新的世界数字互动方式，我们采访过的 AR/VR 专家将其视为长期杀手级 AR/VR 应用，相对于 iPad，我们看到了更多服务货币化的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, Apple’s iPhone is still the major driver of Apple’s revenue. And despite the supply chain problems that have upended nearly every industry around the world, Apple seems to be coming out of the crunch.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果的 iPhone 仍然是苹果收入的主要驱动力。尽管供应链问题已经颠覆了全球几乎所有行业，但苹果似乎正在走出危机。</blockquote></p><p> “Our checks indicate iPhone production is surprising to the upside as Apple hasn't experienced the same level of manufacturing disruptions as in the September quarter,” Huberty wrote. “While upward trending COVID cases are worth monitoring given they could create new production bottlenecks, we view supply upside as a driver of better December quarter iPhone results.”</p><p><blockquote>“休伯蒂写道：”我们的检查显示，iPhone 产量出人意料地上升，因为苹果还没有经历过与 9 月份季度相同程度的生产中断。“虽然 COVID 病例呈上升趋势，值得关注，因为它们可能会造成新的生产瓶颈，但我们认为供应上涨是 12 月份季度 iPhone 业绩更好的驱动力。”</blockquote></p><p> Taken together, it’s clear analysts believe Apple’s new headset and related apps and services business, not to mention the iPhone, will serve as the catalysts that will not only push Apple over the $3 trillion mark, but send the company’s stock even higher.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，分析师们显然认为，苹果的新耳机及相关应用和服务业务，更不用说 iPhone，将成为催化剂，不仅将推动苹果突破 3 万亿美元大关，还将推动公司股价进一步走高。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple's rise is testament to its strong business model,” Santosh Rao, Manhattan Venture Partners’ head of research, told Yahoo Finance Live. “It's an amazing story.”</p><p><blockquote>“曼哈顿风险投资公司研究主管桑托什-拉奥（Santosh Rao）告诉雅虎财经直播：”苹果公司的崛起证明了其强大的商业模式。“这是一个精彩的故事。”</blockquote></p><p> “We have the cars coming up down the road, the 5G refresh, and so many other things, the services business, of course, is very strong,” he said. “So overall combined, this is a company that's well situated.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我们有汽车上路、5G 更新以及许多其他事情，当然，服务业务非常强劲。“总的来说，这是一家地理位置优越的公司。”</blockquote></p><p> Now Apple just has to prove the analysts’ optimism correct.</p><p><blockquote>现在，苹果只需证明分析师的乐观是正确的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy analysts love Apple right now<blockquote>为什么分析师现在喜欢苹果</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-16 22:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple’s (AAPL) market capitalization is once again closing in on $3 trillion. If and when it hits the mark, which will require shares to reach $182.86, Apple will be in historic territory. And analysts are loving it.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）的市值再次接近 3 万亿美元。如果达到要求股价达到 182.86 美元的大关，苹果将处于历史区间。分析师们很喜欢它。</blockquote></p><p> This month alone, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley, Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan, and Amit Daryanani of Evercore ISI have raised their price targets on the stock to $200. And on Tuesday BofA Global Research’s Wamsi Mohan upgraded the stock from neutral to buy and raised his price target for shares to $210.</p><p><blockquote>仅本月，摩根士丹利的 Katy Huberty、摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee 和 Evercore ISI 的 Amit Daryanani 就将该股目标价上调至 200 美元。本周二，美国银行全球研究公司（BofA Global Research）的瓦姆西-莫汉（Wamsi Mohan）将该股评级从中性上调至买入，并将目标价上调至 210 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Several factors are spurring analysts to fawn over Apple: Optimism for Apple’s iPhone, its coming products including its rumored AR/VR headset, and the company’s ability to suck in consumers and keep them there through its services business.</p><p><blockquote>有几个因素促使分析师们对苹果趋之若鹜： 对苹果 iPhone、即将推出的产品（包括传闻中的 AR/VR 头显）的乐观态度，以及该公司通过服务业务吸引消费者并留住消费者的能力。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect Apple to introduce an augmented reality/virtual reality (AR/VR) headset, either by the end of 2022 or early 2023,” Mohan wrote in a recent analyst note. “We view this technology as a game-changer as it will enable many new applications which will require high performance hardware and higher access speeds.”</p><p><blockquote>“莫汉在最近的一份分析师报告中写道：”我们预计苹果将在 2022 年底或 2023 年初推出增强现实/虚拟现实（AR/VR）头显。“我们认为这项技术将改变游戏规则，因为它将实现许多需要高性能硬件和更高访问速度的新应用。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s AR/VR headset,according to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, could cost upwards of $3,000 and be geared to gaming, entertainment, and communications. The headset has been rumored for some time, with Apple filing various patents related to the technology.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社记者马克-古尔曼（Mark Gurman）报道，苹果的 AR/VR 头显售价可能高达 3000 美元，主要用于游戏、娱乐和通信。这款耳机的传闻已经有一段时间了，苹果已经申请了与该技术相关的各种专利。</blockquote></p><p> “I think what a number of people and investors are thinking about is, ‘Hey, if they move to the glasses, the AR and VR glasses that a lot of people expect to see in '22, that's another opportunity to really build on this incredible ecosystem of device owners, and iOS, and Mac OS holders that really love their devices,’ ” TECHnalysis Research president Bob O’Donnell told Yahoo Finance Live.</p><p><blockquote>“TECHnalysis Research 总裁鲍勃-奥唐纳（Bob O'Donnell）告诉雅虎财经直播：”我认为很多人和投资者都在想，'嘿，如果他们转向眼镜，也就是很多人期待在 22 年看到的 AR 和 VR 眼镜，那将是另一个真正建立在这个由设备所有者、iOS 和 Mac OS 用户组成的令人难以置信的生态系统基础上的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s Services business, which includes its App Store, is one of the major sticking points the company has going for it. After all, if you own an iPhone, you’re going to buy apps, and when it’s time to get a new phone you’ll likely buy another iPhone to keep those apps.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的服务业务（包括 App Store）是该公司的主要症结之一。毕竟，如果你拥有一部 iPhone，你就会购买应用程序，而到了换新手机的时候，你很可能会再买一部 iPhone 来保存这些应用程序。</blockquote></p><p> The same idea would apply to the company’s AR/VR headset if Apple can wrangle the kind of third-party developer support it already enjoys on the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果能在 iPhone 上获得第三方开发者支持，那么同样的想法也适用于该公司的 AR/VR 头显。</blockquote></p><p> “We see the potential for more Services monetization relative to iPad as use cases develop beyond gaming and remote servicing and evolve into a whole new way in which the world digitally interacts, which AR/VR experts we've spoken with view as the long-term killer AR/VR application,” Huberty wrote in a Dec. 7 analyst note.</p><p><blockquote>“休伯蒂在 12 月 7 日的一份分析师报告中写道：”我们看到，随着用例超越游戏和远程服务，发展成为一种全新的世界数字互动方式，我们采访过的 AR/VR 专家将其视为长期杀手级 AR/VR 应用，相对于 iPad，我们看到了更多服务货币化的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, Apple’s iPhone is still the major driver of Apple’s revenue. And despite the supply chain problems that have upended nearly every industry around the world, Apple seems to be coming out of the crunch.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果的 iPhone 仍然是苹果收入的主要驱动力。尽管供应链问题已经颠覆了全球几乎所有行业，但苹果似乎正在走出危机。</blockquote></p><p> “Our checks indicate iPhone production is surprising to the upside as Apple hasn't experienced the same level of manufacturing disruptions as in the September quarter,” Huberty wrote. “While upward trending COVID cases are worth monitoring given they could create new production bottlenecks, we view supply upside as a driver of better December quarter iPhone results.”</p><p><blockquote>“休伯蒂写道：”我们的检查显示，iPhone 产量出人意料地上升，因为苹果还没有经历过与 9 月份季度相同程度的生产中断。“虽然 COVID 病例呈上升趋势，值得关注，因为它们可能会造成新的生产瓶颈，但我们认为供应上涨是 12 月份季度 iPhone 业绩更好的驱动力。”</blockquote></p><p> Taken together, it’s clear analysts believe Apple’s new headset and related apps and services business, not to mention the iPhone, will serve as the catalysts that will not only push Apple over the $3 trillion mark, but send the company’s stock even higher.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，分析师们显然认为，苹果的新耳机及相关应用和服务业务，更不用说 iPhone，将成为催化剂，不仅将推动苹果突破 3 万亿美元大关，还将推动公司股价进一步走高。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple's rise is testament to its strong business model,” Santosh Rao, Manhattan Venture Partners’ head of research, told Yahoo Finance Live. “It's an amazing story.”</p><p><blockquote>“曼哈顿风险投资公司研究主管桑托什-拉奥（Santosh Rao）告诉雅虎财经直播：”苹果公司的崛起证明了其强大的商业模式。“这是一个精彩的故事。”</blockquote></p><p> “We have the cars coming up down the road, the 5G refresh, and so many other things, the services business, of course, is very strong,” he said. “So overall combined, this is a company that's well situated.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我们有汽车上路、5G 更新以及许多其他事情，当然，服务业务非常强劲。“总的来说，这是一家地理位置优越的公司。”</blockquote></p><p> Now Apple just has to prove the analysts’ optimism correct.</p><p><blockquote>现在，苹果只需证明分析师的乐观是正确的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-analysts-love-apple-right-now-140655190.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-analysts-love-apple-right-now-140655190.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121295991","content_text":"Apple’s (AAPL) market capitalization is once again closing in on $3 trillion. If and when it hits the mark, which will require shares to reach $182.86, Apple will be in historic territory. And analysts are loving it.\nThis month alone, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley, Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan, and Amit Daryanani of Evercore ISI have raised their price targets on the stock to $200. And on Tuesday BofA Global Research’s Wamsi Mohan upgraded the stock from neutral to buy and raised his price target for shares to $210.\nSeveral factors are spurring analysts to fawn over Apple: Optimism for Apple’s iPhone, its coming products including its rumored AR/VR headset, and the company’s ability to suck in consumers and keep them there through its services business.\n“We expect Apple to introduce an augmented reality/virtual reality (AR/VR) headset, either by the end of 2022 or early 2023,” Mohan wrote in a recent analyst note. “We view this technology as a game-changer as it will enable many new applications which will require high performance hardware and higher access speeds.”\nApple’s AR/VR headset,according to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, could cost upwards of $3,000 and be geared to gaming, entertainment, and communications. The headset has been rumored for some time, with Apple filing various patents related to the technology.\n“I think what a number of people and investors are thinking about is, ‘Hey, if they move to the glasses, the AR and VR glasses that a lot of people expect to see in '22, that's another opportunity to really build on this incredible ecosystem of device owners, and iOS, and Mac OS holders that really love their devices,’ ” TECHnalysis Research president Bob O’Donnell told Yahoo Finance Live.\nApple’s Services business, which includes its App Store, is one of the major sticking points the company has going for it. After all, if you own an iPhone, you’re going to buy apps, and when it’s time to get a new phone you’ll likely buy another iPhone to keep those apps.\nThe same idea would apply to the company’s AR/VR headset if Apple can wrangle the kind of third-party developer support it already enjoys on the iPhone.\n“We see the potential for more Services monetization relative to iPad as use cases develop beyond gaming and remote servicing and evolve into a whole new way in which the world digitally interacts, which AR/VR experts we've spoken with view as the long-term killer AR/VR application,” Huberty wrote in a Dec. 7 analyst note.\nOf course, Apple’s iPhone is still the major driver of Apple’s revenue. And despite the supply chain problems that have upended nearly every industry around the world, Apple seems to be coming out of the crunch.\n“Our checks indicate iPhone production is surprising to the upside as Apple hasn't experienced the same level of manufacturing disruptions as in the September quarter,” Huberty wrote. “While upward trending COVID cases are worth monitoring given they could create new production bottlenecks, we view supply upside as a driver of better December quarter iPhone results.”\nTaken together, it’s clear analysts believe Apple’s new headset and related apps and services business, not to mention the iPhone, will serve as the catalysts that will not only push Apple over the $3 trillion mark, but send the company’s stock even higher.\n“Apple's rise is testament to its strong business model,” Santosh Rao, Manhattan Venture Partners’ head of research, told Yahoo Finance Live. “It's an amazing story.”\n“We have the cars coming up down the road, the 5G refresh, and so many other things, the services business, of course, is very strong,” he said. “So overall combined, this is a company that's well situated.”\nNow Apple just has to prove the analysts’ optimism correct.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690669249,"gmtCreate":1639664434721,"gmtModify":1639664477892,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690669249","repostId":"1105934028","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606032990,"gmtCreate":1638800169954,"gmtModify":1638800170119,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606032990","repostId":"1107494736","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107494736","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638799191,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107494736?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 21:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock Is an Attractive Buy, Says KeyBanc. Price Target Set at $191.<blockquote>KeyBanc 表示，苹果股票很有吸引力。目标价定为 191 美元。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107494736","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the ","content":"<p>Apple&nbsp;shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the stock with a bullish outlook, citing growth in the tech giant’s services segment.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周一上涨，此前 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的分析师以这家科技巨头服务部门的增长为由，开始对该股进行看涨前景的报道。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst Brandon Nispel rated the stock Overweight with a $191 price target. The target presents an 18% increase from Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) $161.84 closing price on Friday. The stock was up 1.2% to $163.73 in premarket trading Monday.</p><p><blockquote>分析师 Brandon Nispel 将该股评级为跑赢大盘 191 美元，目标价为 191 美元。该目标比苹果（股票代码：AAPL）周五收盘价 161.84 美元上涨了 18%。周一盘前交易中，该股上涨 1.2%，至 163.73 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 42 analysts covering the stock surveyed by FactSet, 32 have it at a Buy or Overweight rating, nine rated it at Hold, and one rated it Underweight.</p><p><blockquote>在 FactSet 调查的 42 名分析师中，32 名分析师给予该股买入或跑赢大盘评级，9 名分析师给予持有评级，1 名分析师给予跑输大盘评级。</blockquote></p><p> “While AAPL is expensive by historical valuations, we find AAPL attractive relative to other mega-caps,” Nispel wrote on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“尼斯佩尔周一写道：”虽然按历史估值计算，AAPL 价格昂贵，但我们认为相对于其他大盘股，AAPL 很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst outlined three main reasons for his bullish take. Nispel doesn’t believe iPhone unit sales have peaked, with the 5G upgrade cycle potentially pushing Apple past its current peak; he believes the company has managed to increase its product breadth to reduce reliability on iPhone sales; and he foresees services to grow at rates multiple times faster than user growth.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师概述了他看涨的三个主要原因。尼斯佩尔认为 iPhone 的销量并未达到顶峰，5G 升级周期可能会推动苹果超越目前的峰值；他认为该公司已经设法增加了产品范围，以降低 iPhone 销售的可靠性；他预计服务的增长速度将比用户增长速度快数倍。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst forecasts Apple to have 1.09 billion active iPhones and 1.8 billion active installed devices by the end of the first quarter of the 2022 fiscal year. This presents a 7% and 8% year-over-year increase, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师预测，到 2022 财年第一季度末，苹果将拥有 10.9 亿部活跃 iPhone 和 18 亿部活跃安装设备。同比分别增长 7% 和 8%。</blockquote></p><p> “This shows a healthy growing user base where Apple iPhone market share is low relative to key geographies outside the United States,” Nispel wrote. “As the installed base grows, a larger base can support more sales on lower upgrade rates.”</p><p><blockquote>“尼斯佩尔写道：”这表明苹果 iPhone 的用户群正在健康增长，而与美国以外的主要地区相比，iPhone 的市场份额较低。“随着安装基数的增长，更大的基数可以以更低的升级率支持更多的销售”。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s international segment is likely to grow faster in the coming years as other countries adapt to 5G, prompting a wave of upgrades to compatible hardware, Nispel wrote. He estimates every 1% increase in 5G upgrade rates could drive an incremental 11 million iPhone unit sales.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔写道，随着其他国家适应 5G，苹果的国际业务在未来几年可能会增长得更快，从而引发兼容硬件的升级浪潮。他估计，5G升级率每提高1%，就能推动iPhone销量增加1100万部。</blockquote></p><p> As hardware adoption grows, so does Apple’s services business. The segment, which includes services such as Apple TV+, Music, News+, AppleCare, Advertising, and Cloud, has grown 27% in the 2021 fiscal year. Over time, it could become a key profitability driver, growing to more than $100 billion by 2024, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>随着硬件采用率的增长，苹果的服务业务也在增长。该部门包括苹果电视+、音乐、新闻+、AppleCare、广告和云等服务，在2021财年增长了27%。尼斯佩尔表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会成为一个关键的盈利驱动力，到 2024 年将增长到 1000 亿美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> Nispel recognized that Apple’s App Store legal battles were concerning, but were “likely more a bend, not break outcome.” The company has had to make modest changes to its App Store guidance in response to court rulings and regulatory changes, including lowering its commission for some developers. It will likely make more concessions over time, such as allowing developers to provide third-party payment options, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔承认，苹果与 App Store 的法律诉讼令人担忧，但 “更可能是一个转折点，而不是一个突破结果”。为了应对法院裁决和监管变化，该公司不得不对其 App Store 指南进行适度修改，包括降低一些开发者的佣金。尼斯佩尔表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会做出更多让步，例如允许开发商提供第三方支付选项。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect regulation to take time to implement, and believe Apple’s competitive advantage is unlikely to be substantially harmed,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“他补充说：”我们预计监管需要时间来实施，并相信苹果的竞争优势不太可能受到实质性损害。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Is an Attractive Buy, Says KeyBanc. Price Target Set at $191.<blockquote>KeyBanc 表示，苹果股票很有吸引力。目标价定为 191 美元。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Is an Attractive Buy, Says KeyBanc. Price Target Set at $191.<blockquote>KeyBanc 表示，苹果股票很有吸引力。目标价定为 191 美元。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-06 21:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple&nbsp;shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the stock with a bullish outlook, citing growth in the tech giant’s services segment.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周一上涨，此前 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的分析师以这家科技巨头服务部门的增长为由，开始对该股进行看涨前景的报道。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst Brandon Nispel rated the stock Overweight with a $191 price target. The target presents an 18% increase from Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) $161.84 closing price on Friday. The stock was up 1.2% to $163.73 in premarket trading Monday.</p><p><blockquote>分析师 Brandon Nispel 将该股评级为跑赢大盘 191 美元，目标价为 191 美元。该目标比苹果（股票代码：AAPL）周五收盘价 161.84 美元上涨了 18%。周一盘前交易中，该股上涨 1.2%，至 163.73 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 42 analysts covering the stock surveyed by FactSet, 32 have it at a Buy or Overweight rating, nine rated it at Hold, and one rated it Underweight.</p><p><blockquote>在 FactSet 调查的 42 名分析师中，32 名分析师给予该股买入或跑赢大盘评级，9 名分析师给予持有评级，1 名分析师给予跑输大盘评级。</blockquote></p><p> “While AAPL is expensive by historical valuations, we find AAPL attractive relative to other mega-caps,” Nispel wrote on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“尼斯佩尔周一写道：”虽然按历史估值计算，AAPL 价格昂贵，但我们认为相对于其他大盘股，AAPL 很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst outlined three main reasons for his bullish take. Nispel doesn’t believe iPhone unit sales have peaked, with the 5G upgrade cycle potentially pushing Apple past its current peak; he believes the company has managed to increase its product breadth to reduce reliability on iPhone sales; and he foresees services to grow at rates multiple times faster than user growth.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师概述了他看涨的三个主要原因。尼斯佩尔认为 iPhone 的销量并未达到顶峰，5G 升级周期可能会推动苹果超越目前的峰值；他认为该公司已经设法增加了产品范围，以降低 iPhone 销售的可靠性；他预计服务的增长速度将比用户增长速度快数倍。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst forecasts Apple to have 1.09 billion active iPhones and 1.8 billion active installed devices by the end of the first quarter of the 2022 fiscal year. This presents a 7% and 8% year-over-year increase, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师预测，到 2022 财年第一季度末，苹果将拥有 10.9 亿部活跃 iPhone 和 18 亿部活跃安装设备。同比分别增长 7% 和 8%。</blockquote></p><p> “This shows a healthy growing user base where Apple iPhone market share is low relative to key geographies outside the United States,” Nispel wrote. “As the installed base grows, a larger base can support more sales on lower upgrade rates.”</p><p><blockquote>“尼斯佩尔写道：”这表明苹果 iPhone 的用户群正在健康增长，而与美国以外的主要地区相比，iPhone 的市场份额较低。“随着安装基数的增长，更大的基数可以以更低的升级率支持更多的销售”。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s international segment is likely to grow faster in the coming years as other countries adapt to 5G, prompting a wave of upgrades to compatible hardware, Nispel wrote. He estimates every 1% increase in 5G upgrade rates could drive an incremental 11 million iPhone unit sales.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔写道，随着其他国家适应 5G，苹果的国际业务在未来几年可能会增长得更快，从而引发兼容硬件的升级浪潮。他估计，5G升级率每提高1%，就能推动iPhone销量增加1100万部。</blockquote></p><p> As hardware adoption grows, so does Apple’s services business. The segment, which includes services such as Apple TV+, Music, News+, AppleCare, Advertising, and Cloud, has grown 27% in the 2021 fiscal year. Over time, it could become a key profitability driver, growing to more than $100 billion by 2024, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>随着硬件采用率的增长，苹果的服务业务也在增长。该部门包括苹果电视+、音乐、新闻+、AppleCare、广告和云等服务，在2021财年增长了27%。尼斯佩尔表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会成为一个关键的盈利驱动力，到 2024 年将增长到 1000 亿美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> Nispel recognized that Apple’s App Store legal battles were concerning, but were “likely more a bend, not break outcome.” The company has had to make modest changes to its App Store guidance in response to court rulings and regulatory changes, including lowering its commission for some developers. It will likely make more concessions over time, such as allowing developers to provide third-party payment options, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔承认，苹果与 App Store 的法律诉讼令人担忧，但 “更可能是一个转折点，而不是一个突破结果”。为了应对法院裁决和监管变化，该公司不得不对其 App Store 指南进行适度修改，包括降低一些开发者的佣金。尼斯佩尔表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会做出更多让步，例如允许开发商提供第三方支付选项。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect regulation to take time to implement, and believe Apple’s competitive advantage is unlikely to be substantially harmed,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“他补充说：”我们预计监管需要时间来实施，并相信苹果的竞争优势不太可能受到实质性损害。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-aapl-stock-attractive-buy-51638798446?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-aapl-stock-attractive-buy-51638798446?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107494736","content_text":"Apple shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the stock with a bullish outlook, citing growth in the tech giant’s services segment.\nAnalyst Brandon Nispel rated the stock Overweight with a $191 price target. The target presents an 18% increase from Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) $161.84 closing price on Friday. The stock was up 1.2% to $163.73 in premarket trading Monday.\nOf the 42 analysts covering the stock surveyed by FactSet, 32 have it at a Buy or Overweight rating, nine rated it at Hold, and one rated it Underweight.\n“While AAPL is expensive by historical valuations, we find AAPL attractive relative to other mega-caps,” Nispel wrote on Monday.\nThe analyst outlined three main reasons for his bullish take. Nispel doesn’t believe iPhone unit sales have peaked, with the 5G upgrade cycle potentially pushing Apple past its current peak; he believes the company has managed to increase its product breadth to reduce reliability on iPhone sales; and he foresees services to grow at rates multiple times faster than user growth.\nThe analyst forecasts Apple to have 1.09 billion active iPhones and 1.8 billion active installed devices by the end of the first quarter of the 2022 fiscal year. This presents a 7% and 8% year-over-year increase, respectively.\n“This shows a healthy growing user base where Apple iPhone market share is low relative to key geographies outside the United States,” Nispel wrote. “As the installed base grows, a larger base can support more sales on lower upgrade rates.”\nApple’s international segment is likely to grow faster in the coming years as other countries adapt to 5G, prompting a wave of upgrades to compatible hardware, Nispel wrote. He estimates every 1% increase in 5G upgrade rates could drive an incremental 11 million iPhone unit sales.\nAs hardware adoption grows, so does Apple’s services business. The segment, which includes services such as Apple TV+, Music, News+, AppleCare, Advertising, and Cloud, has grown 27% in the 2021 fiscal year. Over time, it could become a key profitability driver, growing to more than $100 billion by 2024, Nispel said.\nNispel recognized that Apple’s App Store legal battles were concerning, but were “likely more a bend, not break outcome.” The company has had to make modest changes to its App Store guidance in response to court rulings and regulatory changes, including lowering its commission for some developers. It will likely make more concessions over time, such as allowing developers to provide third-party payment options, Nispel said.\n“We expect regulation to take time to implement, and believe Apple’s competitive advantage is unlikely to be substantially harmed,” he added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603169323,"gmtCreate":1638374575774,"gmtModify":1638374575996,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Agree","listText":"Agree","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603169323","repostId":"603372743","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":603372743,"gmtCreate":1638370509601,"gmtModify":1638370632074,"author":{"id":"3574570898156338","authorId":"3574570898156338","name":"Juliusgreyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5a200b3c8827c1620e8f34ed8bb9f0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574570898156338","authorIdStr":"3574570898156338"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$</a>Grab is still too early to be vest for long term. It will be a crazy ride of ups n down&nbsp;after IPO","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$</a>Grab is still too early to be vest for long term. It will be a crazy ride of ups n down&nbsp;after IPO","text":"$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$Grab is still too early to be vest for long term. It will be a crazy ride of ups n down after IPO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603372743","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603984085,"gmtCreate":1638352252967,"gmtModify":1638352253199,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"How did you get 227?","listText":"How did you get 227?","text":"How did you get 227?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603984085","repostId":"603993360","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":603993360,"gmtCreate":1638348785306,"gmtModify":1638349081858,"author":{"id":"3575932421297543","authorId":"3575932421297543","name":"mumu b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56c45ab59e10dbc9641137a77ea4b010","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575932421297543","authorIdStr":"3575932421297543"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$</a>tthis short rate is at 227% and short float 41%. Wtf. this is going to be the next gme.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$</a>tthis short rate is at 227% and short float 41%. Wtf. this is going to be the next gme.","text":"$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$tthis short rate is at 227% and short float 41%. Wtf. this is going to be the next gme.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603993360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609845468,"gmtCreate":1638270683785,"gmtModify":1638270683853,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609845468","repostId":"1147381319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147381319","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638263486,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1147381319?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 17:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading<blockquote>部分电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147381319","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading.Canoo,Rivian,Fisker,Lucid,Li Auto,Tesla and NIO fell betw","content":"<p>Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading.Canoo,Rivian,Fisker,Lucid,Li Auto,Tesla&nbsp;and&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 2% and 3%.</p><p><blockquote>一些电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌。Canoo、Rivian、Fisker、Lucid、理想汽车、特斯拉和蔚来下跌2%至3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670da5061daa286e0cb1f79d91c7f025\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading<blockquote>部分电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome EV stocks dipped in premarket trading<blockquote>部分电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-30 17:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading.Canoo,Rivian,Fisker,Lucid,Li Auto,Tesla&nbsp;and&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 2% and 3%.</p><p><blockquote>一些电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌。Canoo、Rivian、Fisker、Lucid、理想汽车、特斯拉和蔚来下跌2%至3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670da5061daa286e0cb1f79d91c7f025\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","FSR":"菲斯克","XPEV":"小鹏集团","NIO":"蔚来","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车","SEV":"Aptera Motors"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147381319","content_text":"Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading.Canoo,Rivian,Fisker,Lucid,Li Auto,Tesla and NIO fell between 2% and 3%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"SEV":0.9,"LI":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"LCID":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"FSR":0.9,"GOEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1044,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609845207,"gmtCreate":1638270668372,"gmtModify":1638270668430,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609845207","repostId":"1143154253","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143154253","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638264916,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1143154253?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 17:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wait For a Better Entry Point in Red-Hot Lucid Stock<blockquote>等待炙手可热的 Lucid 股票更好的切入点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143154253","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"LCID stock is overvalued, even for an up-and-coming EV player","content":"<p><div> Lucid Group’s(NASDAQ:LCID) third-quarter earnings report showed a significant bump in Lucid Air reservations and record liquidity. With the commencement of deliveries and a production ramp-up, LCID ...</p><p><blockquote><div>Lucid Group（纳斯达克股票代码：LCID）第三季度财报显示，Lucid Air 的预订量大幅增加，流动性也创下历史新高。随着交付的开始和产量的增加，LCID..</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/wait-for-a-better-entry-point-in-red-hot-lcid-stock/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/wait-for-a-better-entry-point-in-red-hot-lcid-stock/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wait For a Better Entry Point in Red-Hot Lucid Stock<blockquote>等待炙手可热的 Lucid 股票更好的切入点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWait For a Better Entry Point in Red-Hot Lucid Stock<blockquote>等待炙手可热的 Lucid 股票更好的切入点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-30 17:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Lucid Group’s(NASDAQ:LCID) third-quarter earnings report showed a significant bump in Lucid Air reservations and record liquidity. With the commencement of deliveries and a production ramp-up, LCID ...</p><p><blockquote><div>Lucid Group（纳斯达克股票代码：LCID）第三季度财报显示，Lucid Air 的预订量大幅增加，流动性也创下历史新高。随着交付的开始和产量的增加，LCID..</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/wait-for-a-better-entry-point-in-red-hot-lcid-stock/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/wait-for-a-better-entry-point-in-red-hot-lcid-stock/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/wait-for-a-better-entry-point-in-red-hot-lcid-stock/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/wait-for-a-better-entry-point-in-red-hot-lcid-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143154253","content_text":"Lucid Group’s(NASDAQ:LCID) third-quarter earnings report showed a significant bump in Lucid Air reservations and record liquidity. With the commencement of deliveries and a production ramp-up, LCID stock is one of the best electric vehicle plays in the market. However, due to its recent success, it is valued like an industry stalwart rather than a newcomer.\nOn Sept. 29, the EV startup announced it would begin deliveries of its Lucid Air Dream Edition in late October. The luxury sedan boasts a range of 520 miles per charge. This makes it the longest-range EV rated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). It’s also noteworthy because it beat the range of Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA) more expensive Model S by over 100 miles.\nThe first Lucid Air Dream Editions were delivered on Oct. 30, and the vehicle has been getting rave reviews.\nLCID stock has surged an incredible 105% in the past two months. With shares trading at a remarkably lofty valuation, it’s best to wait for a correction before getting in.\nLucid Looks to Expand Capacity as Reservations Increase\nAt the end of September, the company said Lucid Air reservations stood at 13,000. By mid-November, Lucid had more than 17,000 reservations. No doubt some were persuaded by the EPA rating, along with the company’s successful marketing eventcovering the launch of the Lucid Air.\nWhat’s more, the day after the company announced its updated reservation numbers, the Lucid Air won the 2022 MotorTrend Car of the Year award.\nAs demand increases, Lucid is looking to increase production capacity. The company plans to add 2.85 million square feet of manufacturing space to its Advanced Manufacturing Plant (AMP-1) in Casa Grande, Ariz. The will increase the facility’s maximum production capacity from a projected 34,000 cars a year currently to 90,000 by the end of 2023.\nThe Lucid Air has a starting price of $77,400 (it will run consumers a little under $70,000 after a federal tax credit). Assuming the company makes 34,000 EVs next year, it could generate more than $2.6 billion in revenue. And that doesn’t include customization packages or any add-ons, which should increase the final sales figure by a considerable margin.\nLucid Sports an Attractive Balance Sheet\nLucid ended the third quarter with a cash balance of $4.8 billion after adding $4.4 billion in new investments. Consequently, the company’s financial flexibility has improved considerably, enabling it to finance its expansion with relative ease. Moreover, it currently has minimal debt on its balance sheet.\nWhile the company has recognized less than $1 million in sales so far, that situation should be dramatically different next year as more cars are delivered to drivers. However, Lucid will continue to post losses and negative cash flows for the foreseeable future. For the most recent quarter, losses from operations totaled $497.1 million, while it posted free cash flows of -$384.4 million.\nLosses are to be expected at this stage in the game, but there are a few risks investors need to be aware of. These include any production troubles the company encounters, as well as continued supply chain disruptions that could result in material or parts shortages. Perhaps the biggest potential long-term risk, though, is the entry of new competitors in the luxury EV space. All eyes are on the Lucid Air for now, but that could quickly change.\nThe Bottom Line on LCID Stock\nSo far, Lucid Group has delivered on its promises and is seeing rising demand for its award-winning electric vehicle. However, with a market cap larger than that of Ford(NYSE:F) and General Motors(NYSE:GM), this basically pre-revenue startup is trading at an unreasonable valuation.\nInvestors should wait for a better entry point before buying LCID stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877685996,"gmtCreate":1637924969807,"gmtModify":1637924969807,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877685996","repostId":"1108962994","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108962994","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637912343,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1108962994?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-26 15:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Has Cathie Wood Lost Her Touch?<blockquote>凯西·伍德失去了触觉吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108962994","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"As stock markets have stayed near record levels, the star asset manager's ARK Invest funds have struggled.","content":"<p>Stocks were mostly higher heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, as investors were able to overcome some early nervousness to claw back ground from losses at the beginning of the session. The&nbsp;<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>&nbsp;still fell slightly on the day, but both the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>&nbsp;managed to post modest gains.</p><p><blockquote>股市在感恩节假期前大多走高，因为投资者能够克服早期的一些紧张情绪，从盘初的损失中收复失地。这个<b>道琼斯工业指数</b>当天仍小幅下跌，但两者<b>标普500</b>和<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>设法公布了适度的收益。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd61fee96cd981d55bc6c0a4a541d9b\" tg-width=\"1149\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DATA SOURCE: YAHOO! FINANCE.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：雅虎!金融。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The day's moves continued the overall strong performance from the stock market in 2021. Yet even though major indexes are up substantially so far this year, Cathie Wood hasn't been as fortunate. Her ARK Invest&nbsp;exchange-traded funds&nbsp;haven't matched the market's performance in 2021, and some wonder if the revered manager has lost her touch. We'll look more closely at that question below.</p><p><blockquote>当天的走势延续了2021年股市的整体强劲表现。然而，尽管今年迄今为止主要股指大幅上涨，但凯西·伍德就没那么幸运了。她的 ARK Invest 交易所交易基金在 2021 年的表现未能与市场相匹配，一些人怀疑这位受人尊敬的经理是否已经失去了影响力。我们将在下面更仔细地研究这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/690a1e671906b4e173308a05c1d903f0\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A down year for ARK Innovation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ARK Innovation 的低迷一年</b></blockquote></p><p> It's been a tough year to be a&nbsp;Cathie Wood investor. For the most part, many of the high-growth stocks that played prominent roles in the&nbsp;<b>ARK Innovation ETF</b>(NYSEMKT:ARKK)&nbsp;and other Wood-led ETFs topped out early in the year. That's left investors slowly but steadily losing ground throughout much of 2021, with ARK Innovation falling about 15% year to date.</p><p><blockquote>作为凯西·伍德的投资者，这是艰难的一年。在很大程度上，许多在市场上发挥重要作用的高增长股票<b>方舟创新ETF</b>(NYSEMKT:ARKK) 和其他木材主导的 ETF 在今年年初达到顶峰。这使得投资者在 2021 年的大部分时间里缓慢但稳定地失去了阵地，ARK Innovation 今年迄今已下跌约 15%。</blockquote></p><p> However, a closer look at the stocks involved shows that Wood's performance has been much more mixed. Stocks like&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Shopify</b>&nbsp;have continued to gain ground for ARK Innovation, helping to offset losses elsewhere. Yet poor performance from telehealth pioneer&nbsp;<b>Teladoc Health</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Zoom Video Communications</b>&nbsp;has weighed on total returns, and pullbacks in other stocks that were high-flyers earlier in the year haven't helped.</p><p><blockquote>然而，仔细观察相关股票就会发现，伍德的表现喜忧参半。股票喜欢<b>特斯拉</b>和<b>商店</b>ARK Innovation 继续取得进展，帮助抵消其他领域的损失。远程医疗先驱表现不佳<b>泰拉多克健康</b>和<b>Zoom Video通讯</b>对总回报造成了压力，而今年早些时候其他表现强劲的股票的回调也无济于事。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Mixed performance elsewhere</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他地方的表现好坏参半</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, Wood's other funds show a much more varied track record. The biggest losses have come for the&nbsp;<b>ARK Genomic Revolution ETF</b>(NYSEMKT:ARKG), which is down more than 30% for the year as four of its top five holdings have fallen from year-ago levels.</p><p><blockquote>此外，伍德的其他基金显示出更加多样化的记录。最大的损失来自<b>方舟基因组革命 ETF</b>(NYSEMKT:ARKG)，今年下跌超过 30%，因为其五大持股中有四只较去年同期水平下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Conversely, declines for ARK Invest's ETFs in the fintech and next-generation internet field are down just a few percent for the year. And the autonomous technology and robotics fund has actually gained ground, albeit trailing the broader market's return year to date.</p><p><blockquote>相反，ARK Investment 在金融科技和下一代互联网领域的 ETF 今年仅下降了几个百分点。自主技术和机器人基金实际上已经取得了进展，尽管今年迄今为止落后于大盘的回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Don't count Cathie Wood out</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不要把凯茜·伍德排除在外</b></blockquote></p><p> The anti-Wood sentiment has gotten so prominent that a new exchange-traded fund has come out that runs explicitly counter to her strategy.<b>Tuttle Capital Short Innovation ETF</b>&nbsp;just came out in early November, with the express goal of shorting the stocks that Wood owns in ARK Innovation.</p><p><blockquote>反伍德情绪变得如此突出，以至于一只新的交易所交易基金已经出现，这与她的策略明显背道而驰。<b>塔特尔资本空头创新 ETF</b>11月初刚刚发布，明确目标是做空伍德在ARK Innovation拥有的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Wood is ready to double down on her picks. Indeed, a recent suggestion from the ARK Invest leader&nbsp; would combine her pro-innovation strategy with short-selling of major stocks in benchmarks like the S&amp;P 500. That could boost returns, albeit at the price of even higher potential volatility in performance. Even Wood acknowledges the risks, having referred to the strategy in an interview on CNBC as \"ARK on steroids.\"</p><p><blockquote>然而伍德准备加倍选择。事实上，ARK Invest 负责人最近的一项建议是将她的支持创新策略与卖空标普500等基准的主要股票结合起来。这可能会提高回报，尽管代价是业绩的潜在波动性更高。就连伍德也承认存在风险，他在接受 CNBC 采访时将这一策略称为“类固醇方舟”。</blockquote></p><p> Most importantly, focusing on 2021's performance unfairly leaves out Wood's amazing gains in 2020, which have led to three-year returns on ARK funds ranging from 134% to 195%. A return to that pace of growth might take a while, but Wood seems optimistic that her stock picks have the potential to generate strong gains for shareholders with the patience and discipline to stick with them.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，关注 2021 年的业绩不公平地忽略了伍德 2020 年的惊人收益，这导致 ARK 基金的三年回报率在 134% 至 195% 之间。恢复到这种增长速度可能需要一段时间，但伍德似乎乐观地认为，只要有耐心和纪律坚持下去，她选择的股票有可能为股东带来强劲的收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Has Cathie Wood Lost Her Touch?<blockquote>凯西·伍德失去了触觉吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHas Cathie Wood Lost Her Touch?<blockquote>凯西·伍德失去了触觉吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-26 15:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks were mostly higher heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, as investors were able to overcome some early nervousness to claw back ground from losses at the beginning of the session. The&nbsp;<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>&nbsp;still fell slightly on the day, but both the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>&nbsp;managed to post modest gains.</p><p><blockquote>股市在感恩节假期前大多走高，因为投资者能够克服早期的一些紧张情绪，从盘初的损失中收复失地。这个<b>道琼斯工业指数</b>当天仍小幅下跌，但两者<b>标普500</b>和<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>设法公布了适度的收益。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd61fee96cd981d55bc6c0a4a541d9b\" tg-width=\"1149\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DATA SOURCE: YAHOO! FINANCE.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：雅虎!金融。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The day's moves continued the overall strong performance from the stock market in 2021. Yet even though major indexes are up substantially so far this year, Cathie Wood hasn't been as fortunate. Her ARK Invest&nbsp;exchange-traded funds&nbsp;haven't matched the market's performance in 2021, and some wonder if the revered manager has lost her touch. We'll look more closely at that question below.</p><p><blockquote>当天的走势延续了2021年股市的整体强劲表现。然而，尽管今年迄今为止主要股指大幅上涨，但凯西·伍德就没那么幸运了。她的 ARK Invest 交易所交易基金在 2021 年的表现未能与市场相匹配，一些人怀疑这位受人尊敬的经理是否已经失去了影响力。我们将在下面更仔细地研究这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/690a1e671906b4e173308a05c1d903f0\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A down year for ARK Innovation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ARK Innovation 的低迷一年</b></blockquote></p><p> It's been a tough year to be a&nbsp;Cathie Wood investor. For the most part, many of the high-growth stocks that played prominent roles in the&nbsp;<b>ARK Innovation ETF</b>(NYSEMKT:ARKK)&nbsp;and other Wood-led ETFs topped out early in the year. That's left investors slowly but steadily losing ground throughout much of 2021, with ARK Innovation falling about 15% year to date.</p><p><blockquote>作为凯西·伍德的投资者，这是艰难的一年。在很大程度上，许多在市场上发挥重要作用的高增长股票<b>方舟创新ETF</b>(NYSEMKT:ARKK) 和其他木材主导的 ETF 在今年年初达到顶峰。这使得投资者在 2021 年的大部分时间里缓慢但稳定地失去了阵地，ARK Innovation 今年迄今已下跌约 15%。</blockquote></p><p> However, a closer look at the stocks involved shows that Wood's performance has been much more mixed. Stocks like&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Shopify</b>&nbsp;have continued to gain ground for ARK Innovation, helping to offset losses elsewhere. Yet poor performance from telehealth pioneer&nbsp;<b>Teladoc Health</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Zoom Video Communications</b>&nbsp;has weighed on total returns, and pullbacks in other stocks that were high-flyers earlier in the year haven't helped.</p><p><blockquote>然而，仔细观察相关股票就会发现，伍德的表现喜忧参半。股票喜欢<b>特斯拉</b>和<b>商店</b>ARK Innovation 继续取得进展，帮助抵消其他领域的损失。远程医疗先驱表现不佳<b>泰拉多克健康</b>和<b>Zoom Video通讯</b>对总回报造成了压力，而今年早些时候其他表现强劲的股票的回调也无济于事。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Mixed performance elsewhere</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他地方的表现好坏参半</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, Wood's other funds show a much more varied track record. The biggest losses have come for the&nbsp;<b>ARK Genomic Revolution ETF</b>(NYSEMKT:ARKG), which is down more than 30% for the year as four of its top five holdings have fallen from year-ago levels.</p><p><blockquote>此外，伍德的其他基金显示出更加多样化的记录。最大的损失来自<b>方舟基因组革命 ETF</b>(NYSEMKT:ARKG)，今年下跌超过 30%，因为其五大持股中有四只较去年同期水平下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Conversely, declines for ARK Invest's ETFs in the fintech and next-generation internet field are down just a few percent for the year. And the autonomous technology and robotics fund has actually gained ground, albeit trailing the broader market's return year to date.</p><p><blockquote>相反，ARK Investment 在金融科技和下一代互联网领域的 ETF 今年仅下降了几个百分点。自主技术和机器人基金实际上已经取得了进展，尽管今年迄今为止落后于大盘的回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Don't count Cathie Wood out</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不要把凯茜·伍德排除在外</b></blockquote></p><p> The anti-Wood sentiment has gotten so prominent that a new exchange-traded fund has come out that runs explicitly counter to her strategy.<b>Tuttle Capital Short Innovation ETF</b>&nbsp;just came out in early November, with the express goal of shorting the stocks that Wood owns in ARK Innovation.</p><p><blockquote>反伍德情绪变得如此突出，以至于一只新的交易所交易基金已经出现，这与她的策略明显背道而驰。<b>塔特尔资本空头创新 ETF</b>11月初刚刚发布，明确目标是做空伍德在ARK Innovation拥有的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Wood is ready to double down on her picks. Indeed, a recent suggestion from the ARK Invest leader&nbsp; would combine her pro-innovation strategy with short-selling of major stocks in benchmarks like the S&amp;P 500. That could boost returns, albeit at the price of even higher potential volatility in performance. Even Wood acknowledges the risks, having referred to the strategy in an interview on CNBC as \"ARK on steroids.\"</p><p><blockquote>然而伍德准备加倍选择。事实上，ARK Invest 负责人最近的一项建议是将她的支持创新策略与卖空标普500等基准的主要股票结合起来。这可能会提高回报，尽管代价是业绩的潜在波动性更高。就连伍德也承认存在风险，他在接受 CNBC 采访时将这一策略称为“类固醇方舟”。</blockquote></p><p> Most importantly, focusing on 2021's performance unfairly leaves out Wood's amazing gains in 2020, which have led to three-year returns on ARK funds ranging from 134% to 195%. A return to that pace of growth might take a while, but Wood seems optimistic that her stock picks have the potential to generate strong gains for shareholders with the patience and discipline to stick with them.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，关注 2021 年的业绩不公平地忽略了伍德 2020 年的惊人收益，这导致 ARK 基金的三年回报率在 134% 至 195% 之间。恢复到这种增长速度可能需要一段时间，但伍德似乎乐观地认为，只要有耐心和纪律坚持下去，她选择的股票有可能为股东带来强劲的收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/24/has-cathie-wood-lost-her-touch/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKQ":"ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/24/has-cathie-wood-lost-her-touch/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108962994","content_text":"Stocks were mostly higher heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, as investors were able to overcome some early nervousness to claw back ground from losses at the beginning of the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average still fell slightly on the day, but both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite managed to post modest gains.\nDATA SOURCE: YAHOO! FINANCE.\nThe day's moves continued the overall strong performance from the stock market in 2021. Yet even though major indexes are up substantially so far this year, Cathie Wood hasn't been as fortunate. Her ARK Invest exchange-traded funds haven't matched the market's performance in 2021, and some wonder if the revered manager has lost her touch. We'll look more closely at that question below.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nA down year for ARK Innovation\nIt's been a tough year to be a Cathie Wood investor. For the most part, many of the high-growth stocks that played prominent roles in the ARK Innovation ETF(NYSEMKT:ARKK) and other Wood-led ETFs topped out early in the year. That's left investors slowly but steadily losing ground throughout much of 2021, with ARK Innovation falling about 15% year to date.\nHowever, a closer look at the stocks involved shows that Wood's performance has been much more mixed. Stocks like Tesla and Shopify have continued to gain ground for ARK Innovation, helping to offset losses elsewhere. Yet poor performance from telehealth pioneer Teladoc Health and Zoom Video Communications has weighed on total returns, and pullbacks in other stocks that were high-flyers earlier in the year haven't helped.\nMixed performance elsewhere\nMoreover, Wood's other funds show a much more varied track record. The biggest losses have come for the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF(NYSEMKT:ARKG), which is down more than 30% for the year as four of its top five holdings have fallen from year-ago levels.\nConversely, declines for ARK Invest's ETFs in the fintech and next-generation internet field are down just a few percent for the year. And the autonomous technology and robotics fund has actually gained ground, albeit trailing the broader market's return year to date.\nDon't count Cathie Wood out\nThe anti-Wood sentiment has gotten so prominent that a new exchange-traded fund has come out that runs explicitly counter to her strategy.Tuttle Capital Short Innovation ETF just came out in early November, with the express goal of shorting the stocks that Wood owns in ARK Innovation.\nYet Wood is ready to double down on her picks. Indeed, a recent suggestion from the ARK Invest leader  would combine her pro-innovation strategy with short-selling of major stocks in benchmarks like the S&P 500. That could boost returns, albeit at the price of even higher potential volatility in performance. Even Wood acknowledges the risks, having referred to the strategy in an interview on CNBC as \"ARK on steroids.\"\nMost importantly, focusing on 2021's performance unfairly leaves out Wood's amazing gains in 2020, which have led to three-year returns on ARK funds ranging from 134% to 195%. A return to that pace of growth might take a while, but Wood seems optimistic that her stock picks have the potential to generate strong gains for shareholders with the patience and discipline to stick with them.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKK":0.9,"ARKQ":0.9,"ARKF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872212325,"gmtCreate":1637537719390,"gmtModify":1637537719390,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Whao","listText":"Whao","text":"Whao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872212325","repostId":"1173318474","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872108746,"gmtCreate":1637454209673,"gmtModify":1637454209732,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍&nbsp;","listText":"👍&nbsp;","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872108746","repostId":"1143065747","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143065747","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637383902,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1143065747?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-20 12:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPAC Altimeter Growth jumps after setting vote date for Grab deal<blockquote>SPAC Altimeter 在设定 Grab 交易投票日期后增长迅速</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143065747","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp.  rose 4.6% after it set a Nov. 30 date for holders to vote on its deal t","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp. </a> rose 4.6% after it set a Nov. 30 date for holders to vote on its deal to take Southeast Asia ride-hailing giant Grab public.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">特殊目的收购公司高度计增长公司。</a>该公司将 11 月 30 日定为股东对东南亚打车巨头 Grab 上市交易进行投票的日期，股价上涨 4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459798d9c6d2d0c428941e1ee2937f4b\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"635\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Brad Gerstner's AGC announced that that the SEC declared effective the Form F-4 registration statement of Grab Holdings, according to a release.</p><p><blockquote>根据一份新闻稿，Brad Gerstner 的 AGC 宣布 SEC 宣布 Grab Holdings 的 F-4 表格注册声明生效。</blockquote></p><p> Grab is Southeast Asia's most valuable startup and is set to undergo a merger with Altimeter (AGC) at a valuation of $40B in the fourth quarter, pushed back after a delay.</p><p><blockquote>Grab 是东南亚最有价值的初创公司，将于第四季度以 400 亿美元的估值与 Altimeter (AGC) 合并，但在推迟后被推迟。</blockquote></p><p> The deal is expected to be the largest-ever U.S. equity offering by a Southeast Asian company. A public debut from Grab will offer investors access to a regional consumer market of more than 655M people across countries including Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.</p><p><blockquote>该交易预计将是东南亚公司有史以来最大的美国股票发行。Grab 的公开亮相将为投资者提供进入印度尼西亚、泰国和越南等国家超过 6.55 亿人口的区域消费市场的机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPAC Altimeter Growth jumps after setting vote date for Grab deal<blockquote>SPAC Altimeter 在设定 Grab 交易投票日期后增长迅速</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPAC Altimeter Growth jumps after setting vote date for Grab deal<blockquote>SPAC Altimeter 在设定 Grab 交易投票日期后增长迅速</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-20 12:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp. </a> rose 4.6% after it set a Nov. 30 date for holders to vote on its deal to take Southeast Asia ride-hailing giant Grab public.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">特殊目的收购公司高度计增长公司。</a>该公司将 11 月 30 日定为股东对东南亚打车巨头 Grab 上市交易进行投票的日期，股价上涨 4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459798d9c6d2d0c428941e1ee2937f4b\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"635\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Brad Gerstner's AGC announced that that the SEC declared effective the Form F-4 registration statement of Grab Holdings, according to a release.</p><p><blockquote>根据一份新闻稿，Brad Gerstner 的 AGC 宣布 SEC 宣布 Grab Holdings 的 F-4 表格注册声明生效。</blockquote></p><p> Grab is Southeast Asia's most valuable startup and is set to undergo a merger with Altimeter (AGC) at a valuation of $40B in the fourth quarter, pushed back after a delay.</p><p><blockquote>Grab 是东南亚最有价值的初创公司，将于第四季度以 400 亿美元的估值与 Altimeter (AGC) 合并，但在推迟后被推迟。</blockquote></p><p> The deal is expected to be the largest-ever U.S. equity offering by a Southeast Asian company. A public debut from Grab will offer investors access to a regional consumer market of more than 655M people across countries including Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.</p><p><blockquote>该交易预计将是东南亚公司有史以来最大的美国股票发行。Grab 的公开亮相将为投资者提供进入印度尼西亚、泰国和越南等国家超过 6.55 亿人口的区域消费市场的机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3773032-spac-altimeter-growth-jumps-after-sending-vote-date-for-grab-deal\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3773032-spac-altimeter-growth-jumps-after-sending-vote-date-for-grab-deal","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143065747","content_text":"SPAC Altimeter Growth Corp.  rose 4.6% after it set a Nov. 30 date for holders to vote on its deal to take Southeast Asia ride-hailing giant Grab public.\n\nBrad Gerstner's AGC announced that that the SEC declared effective the Form F-4 registration statement of Grab Holdings, according to a release.\nGrab is Southeast Asia's most valuable startup and is set to undergo a merger with Altimeter (AGC) at a valuation of $40B in the fourth quarter, pushed back after a delay.\nThe deal is expected to be the largest-ever U.S. equity offering by a Southeast Asian company. A public debut from Grab will offer investors access to a regional consumer market of more than 655M people across countries including Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AGC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876894415,"gmtCreate":1637288651885,"gmtModify":1637288651885,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Similar to GRAB?","listText":"Similar to GRAB?","text":"Similar to GRAB?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876894415","repostId":"2184189467","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871640345,"gmtCreate":1637068643108,"gmtModify":1637068643310,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Agree","listText":"Agree","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871640345","repostId":"871655255","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":871655255,"gmtCreate":1637068431014,"gmtModify":1637068435397,"author":{"id":"3575044403730346","authorId":"3575044403730346","name":"鸡蛋壳里的风暴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69675e4f8afe973d0a3d6ccf992ae361","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575044403730346","authorIdStr":"3575044403730346"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> 老虎软件里当日盈亏的显示就是搞笑用的","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> 老虎软件里当日盈亏的显示就是搞笑用的","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 老虎软件里当日盈亏的显示就是搞笑用的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871655255","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871375927,"gmtCreate":1637031452356,"gmtModify":1637031452455,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$</a>1 agc for 1 grab shares?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGC\">$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$</a>1 agc for 1 grab shares?&nbsp;","text":"$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$1 agc for 1 grab shares?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871375927","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873002602,"gmtCreate":1636785467012,"gmtModify":1636785467107,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873002602","repostId":"1129543601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129543601","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636770982,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129543601?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 10:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度超出预期，自由现金流增加，提高指引，但抛售创造机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129543601","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating a 30% margin.</li>  <li>Palantir's commercial revenue increased 37%, and government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3 showing strong forward growth trends.</li>  <li>Palantir closed 54 deals in Q3 2021 with at least $1 million in contract value with 33 valued at $5+ million and 18 at $10+ million.</li>  <li>Palantir increases guidance again and expects 40% revenue growth YoY at $1.527 billion and $400 million in FCF up from the previous guidance increase of $300 million.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd5d395baf412802ef5e554f0efa64b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 的收入环比增长 36%，同时产生 1.19 亿美元的自由现金流，利润率为 30%。</li><li>Palantir 第三季度商业收入增长 37%，政府收入同比增长 34%，显示出强劲的前瞻性增长趋势。</li><li>Palantir在2021年第三季度完成了54笔交易，合同价值至少为100万美元，其中33笔价值超过500万美元，18笔价值超过1000万美元。</li><li>Palantir 再次上调指引，预计收入同比增长 40%，达到 15.27 亿美元，自由现金流较之前的 3 亿美元增长 4 亿美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安德烈亚斯·伦茨/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors love to hate Palantir (PLTR), which was nicknamed a black box company in the past, while others absolutely love it because they believe PLTR's software is the future. In my previous article on PLTR, I stated that based on PLTR's current revenue trend, they were setting up to deliver $399.41 million in revenue for Q3 and $423.22 million of revenue in Q4. The consensus number was $386.56 million of revenue in Q3, and PLTR delivered $392.1 million and forecasted $418 million in Q4 2021. The reaction in premarket as the earnings call was being conducted was nothing but a sea of red as PLTR sharply declined, and each time a gap tried to fill, the next leg on the downward spiral started. The news wasn't even digested, yet people decided to either take profits, exit their position or lost faith in PLTR.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者喜欢讨厌 Palantir (PLTR)，该公司过去被戏称为黑盒公司，而另一些投资者则绝对喜欢它，因为他们相信 PLTR 的软件是未来。在我之前关于 PLTR 的文章中，我表示，根据 PLTR 目前的收入趋势，他们计划在第三季度实现 3.9941 亿美元的收入，在第四季度实现 4.2322 亿美元的收入。第三季度的共识数字是3.8656亿美元的收入，PLTR在2021年第四季度实现了3.921亿美元的收入，预计为4.18亿美元。随着 PLTR 大幅下跌，盘前市场的反应只不过是一片红海，每次试图填补缺口时，螺旋式下降的下一阶段就开始了。这个消息甚至还没有被消化，但人们决定要么获利了结，要么平仓，要么对 PLTR 失去信心。</blockquote></p><p> What wasn't there to like in the earnings release to cause the sell-off that has been hovering in the -9.03% range? PLTR delivered 36% YoY revenue growth, added 34 new customers in Q3, and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. PLTR increased their remaining deal value by 50% YoY to $3.6 billion and delivered $101 million in cash from operations (26% margin), and $199 million in free cash flow (30% margin). PLTR also increased guidance for 2021 as they now expect revenue growth of 40% YoY compared to their previous projection of 30% and increased their projection in FCF to $400 million from $300 million. In addition to the numbers, PLTR announced new product platforms and use cases that have tremendous potential to drive revenue and FCF in the future. I believe this sell-off will be short-lived and I am looking at it as a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>财报发布有什么不妥之处导致抛售一直徘徊在-9.03%的范围内？PLTR 收入同比增长 36%，第三季度新增 34 名客户，并完成 54 笔价值 100 万美元或以上的交易。PLTR 的剩余交易价值同比增长 50%，达到 36 亿美元，并交付了 1.01 亿美元的运营现金（利润率为 26%）和 1.99 亿美元的自由现金流（利润率为 30%）。PLTR 还提高了 2021 年的指引，因为他们现在预计收入同比增长 40%，而之前预测为 30%，并将自由现金流的预测从 3 亿美元上调至 4 亿美元。除了这些数字之外，PLTR 还宣布了新的产品平台和用例，这些平台和用例在未来具有推动收入和自由现金流的巨大潜力。我相信这次抛售是短暂的，我将其视为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cfe1dd0e9b2c6a24ce3cb94bcfda56c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's revenue continues to expand on both the commercial and government side</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 的商业和政府收入持续增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Quarter after Quarter since PLTR went public, their commercial business has expanded. After five quarters of going public, PLTR's quarterly commercial revenue has increased by $62 million or 55.36%. In Q3 2021, PLTR delivered $174 million in revenue from its commercial operations, which accounted for 44.38% of its $392.1 million quarterly revenue. Over the previous two years, PLTR's Q3 revenue has increased by 85.11% as it grew by 35.11% in Q3 2020 YoY and by another 37.01% YoY in Q3 of 2021. PLTR's commercial remaining deal value increased by 101% YoY from $1.1 billion in Q3 2020 to $2.2 billion in Q3 2021. Commercial customers are inviting PLTR to present their software solutions, and PLTR is winning their business. In Q3 2021, PLTR added 34 net new customers increasing their commercial customer base by 20% QoQ to 203. Over the past year, PLTR has seen its commercial customer base expand by 46.04% as it has grown by 64 clients from 139 to 203. Anyone who still classifies PLTR as a black box is not being accurate as the commercial market is learning about PLTR's software platforms and implementing their solutions to improve their operations.</p><p><blockquote>自PLTR上市以来，他们的商业业务一个又一个季度地扩大。上市五个季度后，PLTR的季度商业收入增加了6200万美元，增幅达55.36%。2021 年第三季度，PLTR 的商业运营收入为 1.74 亿美元，占其季度收入 3.921 亿美元的 44.38%。过去两年，PLTR的第三季度收入增长了85.11%，2020年第三季度同比增长35.11%，2021年第三季度又同比增长37.01%。PLTR 的商业剩余交易价值同比增长 101%，从 2020 年第三季度的 11 亿美元增至 2021 年第三季度的 22 亿美元。商业客户正在邀请PLTR展示他们的软件解决方案，PLTR正在赢得他们的业务。2021 年第三季度，PLTR 净增 34 家新客户，商业客户群环比增长 20%，达到 203 家。过去一年，PLTR 的商业客户群增长了 46.04%，客户数量从 139 家增加到 203 家，增加了 64 家。任何仍然将 PLTR 归类为黑匣子的人都是不准确的，因为商业市场正在了解 PLTR 的软件平台并实施其解决方案以改善运营。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4084630f4e4be30a41c925c5a3fd0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since Q1 of 2020, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue by $163.1 million (71.23%) at an average quarterly growth rate of 9.43% QoQ. In Q3 of 2021, this trend stayed intact as revenue increased by $16.1 million QoQ or 4.28%. While the quarterly revenue growth slowed a bit QoQ compared to 10.26% in Q2 2021, PLTR is projecting its Q4 2021 revenue will be $418 million. PLTR is expecting to deliver another company record and generate $25.9 million (6.61%) in QoQ growth to close out the year.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年Q1以来，PLTR的季度收入增加了1.631亿美元（71.23%），平均季度增长率为9.43%。2021 年第三季度，这一趋势保持不变，收入环比增长 1610 万美元，增幅为 4.28%。虽然与 2021 年第二季度的 10.26% 相比，季度收入增长环比略有放缓，但 PLTR 预计其 2021 年第四季度收入将为 4.18 亿美元。PLTR 预计将创造另一项公司纪录，并在年底实现 2590 万美元 (6.61%) 的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The same growth story applies to their total revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as well. Over the last six quarters, PLTR's TTM revenue has increased by $620.6 million (76.55%) from $810.6 million to $1.43 billion. On average, PLTR's TTM revenue growth has increased by $103.42 million (9.94%) QoQ. In Q1 2020 - Q3 2020, their average QoQ revenue growth was $94.03 million, and this has increased substantially as the past three quarters have all increased by at least $105 million QoQ. In Q3 2021, PLTR increased its TTM revenue to $1.43 billion as it added $106.8 million (8.06%) in QoQ revenue growth. Just like the quarterly metric, PLTR's TTM is expected to grow QoQ by an additional $95.9 million to $1.527 billion compared to $1.51 billion in the consensus estimate. This would place PLTR's annual revenue growth YoY well ahead of their 30% projection as they would finish 2021 having increased its revenue by $434.30 million (39.75%)</p><p><blockquote>同样的增长故事也适用于他们过去12个月的总收入（TTM）。过去六个季度，PLTR 的 TTM 收入增加了 6.206 亿美元（76.55%），从 8.106 亿美元增至 14.3 亿美元。平均而言，PLTR 的 TTM 收入增长环比增长 1.0342 亿美元（9.94%）。在2020年第一季度至2020年第三季度，他们的平均环比收入增长为9403万美元，这一数字大幅增长，因为过去三个季度的环比收入都至少增长了1.05亿美元。2021 年第三季度，PLTR 的 TTM 收入增至 14.3 亿美元，环比收入增长 1.068 亿美元（8.06%）。与季度指标一样，PLTR 的 TTM 预计将环比额外增长 9590 万美元，达到 15.27 亿美元，而市场普遍预期为 15.1 亿美元。这将使 PLTR 的年收入同比增长远远超过 30% 的预测，因为到 2021 年，他们的收入将增加 4.3430 亿美元 (39.75%)</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0ec6211d7ecb04785f406c7661c9124\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I am shocked PLTR is still in the red. PLTR is a high-growth company that is now FCF positive and expanding its metrics. In the first nine months of 2020, PLTR generated -$285 million in FCF, and at the end of the first nine months of 2021, PLTR has delivered a $605 million swing as it has produced $320 million in FCF YTD. PLTR previously increased their 2021 FCF guidance to $300, and they just increased it again to $400+ million. In the span of three months, PLTR increased its FCF projection by an additional 33.33%. In Q3, PLTR's FCF margin was 30%, and they are projecting $400+ million in FCF for 2021. At the very minimum, this would mean they will tack on an additional $80 million in FCF for 2021. If PLTR delivers $1.527 billion in revenue and $400 million in FCF, its 2021 FCF margin would be 26.2%. PLTR is still projecting 30% annual revenue growth YoY thru 2025, which would place their 2025 revenue at $4.36 billion based on their projection of $1.527 for 2021. At PLTR's current FCF margin, they would generate $1.14 billion in FCF in 2025. Considering PLTR's current trends, if they exceeded their projections and grew at 35% YoY, it would place their 2025 revenue at $5.07 billion. At their current FCF margin, they would then generate $1.33 billion in FCF in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>我很震惊PLTR仍然处于亏损状态。PLTR 是一家高增长公司，目前 FCF 为正，并正在扩大其指标。在 2020 年前 9 个月，PLTR 产生了 2.85 亿美元的自由现金流，在 2021 年前 9 个月末，PLTR 交付了 6.05 亿美元的波动，年初至今已产生 3.2 亿美元的自由现金流。PLTR 此前将 2021 年自由现金流指引提高到 300 美元，现在又将其再次提高到 4 亿多美元。在三个月的时间里，PLTR将其自由现金流预测额外增加了33.33%。第三季度，PLTR 的自由现金流利润率为 30%，他们预计 2021 年自由现金流利润率将超过 4 亿美元。至少，这意味着他们将在 2021 年额外增加 8000 万美元的自由现金流。如果 PLTR 实现 15.27 亿美元的收入和 4 亿美元的自由现金流，其 2021 年自由现金流利润率将为 26.2%。PLTR 仍预计到 2025 年年收入同比增长 30%，基于 2021 年 1527 美元的预测，他们 2025 年收入将达到 43.6 亿美元。按照 PLTR 目前的自由现金流利润率，他们将在 2025 年产生 11.4 亿美元的自由现金流。考虑到 PLTR 目前的趋势，如果他们超出预期并同比增长 35%，那么他们 2025 年收入将达到 50.7 亿美元。按照目前的自由现金流利润率，到 2025 年，他们将产生 13.3 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87cff0d5c5ef70ea6926a1323c77bfe4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: PLTR)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：PLTR）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PLTR is firing on all cylinders. YoY, their Q3 revenue grew by 36%, they raised guidance on their FCF for a 2nd time from $300 million to $400+ million and have increased their annual revenue growth guidance from 30% to roughly 40%. PLTR is still maintaining its future revenue outlook of 30% annually YoY and is creating some impressive margins. PLTR's commercial revenue grew YoY by 37%, and their government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3. PLTR closed at least 54 deals worth at least $1 million during Q3, and 33 of those were at least $5 million in revenue, and 18 were at least $10 million in revenue. PLTR's growth metrics are impressive, and I am expecting them to under promise and over deliver going forward.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR正在全力以赴。同比，他们的第三季度收入增长了 36%，他们第二次将自由现金流的指导从 3 亿美元提高到 4 亿多美元，并将年收入增长指导从 30% 提高到约 40%。PLTR 仍维持其未来同比增长 30% 的收入前景，并创造了一些令人印象深刻的利润率。PLTR 第三季度商业收入同比增长 37%，政府收入同比增长 34%。PLTR 在第三季度完成了至少 54 笔价值至少 100 万美元的交易，其中 33 笔收入至少为 500 万美元，18 笔收入至少为 1000 万美元。PLTR 的增长指标令人印象深刻，我预计他们未来将低于承诺并超额完成。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir is entering two new sectors that are going to be huge, carbon emissions, and crypto</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 正在进入两个巨大的新领域：碳排放和加密货币</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past, I have written about future opportunities with the government, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM). On today's earnings call, PLTR introduced significant information surrounding two new products they will be offering for carbon emissions and crypto.</p><p><blockquote>过去，我写过关于政府、亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）和国际商业机器公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IBM）未来机会的文章。在今天的财报看涨期权上，PLTR 介绍了有关他们将为碳排放和加密提供的两种新产品的重要信息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> There has been a fundamental shift in the USA over climate, and President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement to reengage in tackling climate change. Part ofthe planis to reach a net-zero emission economy-wide by 2050. Recently President Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. No matter what your stance on climate is, there are many who believe we need to lower emissions, and many nations are working on a goal. To comply, companies such as&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(NYSE:XOM)&nbsp;are conducting longer-term research on several promising innovations with outside organizations, including direct air capture technology to&nbsp;scrub emissions out of the air&nbsp;and carbonate fuel cells&nbsp;to capture industrial emissions&nbsp;from flue gas streams of power plants or manufacturing facilities. Carbon emissions management is already a booming business, and PLTR is creating a module on Foundry to present a single pane to view revenue, margin, production, and all emissions so companies can manage outcomes more efficiently. Personally, I believe this has enormous potential to drive revenue for PLTR in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国在气候问题上发生了根本性的转变，拜登总统重新加入了《巴黎协定》，重新参与应对气候变化。到2050年实现整个经济净零排放计划的一部分。最近，拜登总统在苏格兰格拉斯哥举行的联合国气候峰会上承诺，将与欧盟和其他数十个国家合作，到2030年将全球甲烷排放总量减少30%。无论你对气候的立场是什么，都有许多人认为我们需要降低排放，许多国家正在努力实现一个目标。为了遵守规定，埃克森美孚（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XOM）等公司正在与外部组织一起对几项有前途的创新进行长期研究，包括用于清除空气中排放物的直接空气捕获技术和用于捕获工业排放物的碳酸盐燃料电池来自发电厂或制造设施的烟气流。碳排放管理已经是一项蓬勃发展的业务，PLTR 正在 Foundry 上创建一个模块，以显示单个窗格来查看收入、利润率、产量和所有排放，以便公司可以更有效地管理结果。就我个人而言，我相信这对于推动 PLTR 未来的收入具有巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2386d938e7f452a340dbb130de508f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The second huge prospect that PLTR discussed was Foundry for crypto. It looks like PLTR is leveraging their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. PLTR has worked with several governments over the years to find compliance issues with the world's largest banks and help those banks respond and strengthen their compliance programs. This makes complete sense, and when you go back to the contracts, PLTR has been awarded from the IRS and SEC (discussed in previous articles). In Q3 alone, PLTR inked 6 contracts with the IRS. If I had to guess, PLTR's software would be utilized by the IRS and the SEC on the government side and adopted on the commercial side by banks and crypto exchanges. Currently, in the past 24 hours,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN)&nbsp;is showing that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has incurred a trading volume of $43.8 billion. I think PLTR will end up driving future revenue from both government and commercial contracts from its Foundry for Crypto.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR讨论的第二个巨大前景是加密铸造。看起来PLTR正在利用他们的反洗钱和了解客户的专业知识。多年来，PLTR 与多个政府合作，发现全球最大银行的合规问题，并帮助这些银行做出回应并加强其合规计划。这是完全有道理的，当你回到合同时，PLTR已经被美国国税局和美国证券交易委员会授予了（在以前的文章中讨论过）。仅在第三季度，PLTR 就与美国国税局签署了 6 份合同。如果让我猜的话，PLTR的软件会被政府方面的国税局和美国证券交易委员会使用，并被银行和加密货币交易所采用。目前，在过去24小时内，比特币基地（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）显示比特币（BTC-USD）的交易量为438亿美元。我认为 PLTR 最终将推动其加密货币代工厂的政府和商业合同的未来收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c762e27799c80dbaa9914bb98a6a10\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"234\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Database)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：联邦采购数据库）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005d57c6c5c926b35eac100fa35c7415\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> PLTR has become another statistic of the market misunderstanding its earnings and selling the news when the news was great. What more does anyone want PLTR to do? This was an excellent quarter with revenue increasing 36% YoY in Q3, FCF came in at $119 million with a 30% margin, and PLTR closed 54 deals worth more than $1 million each. PLTR beats revenue estimates, increases guidance for its full-year revenue than for the 2nd time, increases its FCF guidance. This was a sell the news on all positive factors, which is creating a buying opportunity. I am staying long on PLTR and plan to add to my position if the sell-off continues.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR已经成为市场误解其盈利并在消息大好时抛售消息的又一统计数据。还有人希望PLTR做什么？这是一个出色的季度，第三季度收入同比增长 36%，FCF 达到 1.19 亿美元，利润率为 30%，PLTR 完成了 54 笔交易，每笔交易价值超过 100 万美元。PLTR 超出收入预期，第二次上调全年收入指引，上调自由现金流指引。这是一个关于所有积极因素的卖出消息，这创造了一个买入机会。我将长期持有 PLTR，并计划如果抛售继续的话加仓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Seeking Alpha Marketplace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>寻求阿尔法市场</b></blockquote></p><p> I will be launching a subscription service called Barbell Capital on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Barbell Capital will provide exclusive research, model portfolios, investment tools, Q&amp;A sessions, watchlists, and additional features for its members. I will also have a live portfolio dedicated to generating capital from trading, selling puts and selling covered calls. The profits will be allocated to future capital appreciating investments and investing in dividend investments to generate income while we sleep.</p><p><blockquote>我将在Seeking Alpha市场上推出一项名为Barbell Capital的订阅服务。杠铃资本将为其成员提供独家研究、模型投资组合、投资工具、问答会议、观察列表和附加功能。我还将有一个实时投资组合，专门用于通过交易、出售看跌期权和出售备兑评级来产生资本。利润将被分配到未来的资本增值投资和股息投资中，以便在我们睡觉时产生收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度超出预期，自由现金流增加，提高指引，但抛售创造机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度超出预期，自由现金流增加，提高指引，但抛售创造机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-13 10:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating a 30% margin.</li>  <li>Palantir's commercial revenue increased 37%, and government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3 showing strong forward growth trends.</li>  <li>Palantir closed 54 deals in Q3 2021 with at least $1 million in contract value with 33 valued at $5+ million and 18 at $10+ million.</li>  <li>Palantir increases guidance again and expects 40% revenue growth YoY at $1.527 billion and $400 million in FCF up from the previous guidance increase of $300 million.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd5d395baf412802ef5e554f0efa64b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 的收入环比增长 36%，同时产生 1.19 亿美元的自由现金流，利润率为 30%。</li><li>Palantir 第三季度商业收入增长 37%，政府收入同比增长 34%，显示出强劲的前瞻性增长趋势。</li><li>Palantir在2021年第三季度完成了54笔交易，合同价值至少为100万美元，其中33笔价值超过500万美元，18笔价值超过1000万美元。</li><li>Palantir 再次上调指引，预计收入同比增长 40%，达到 15.27 亿美元，自由现金流较之前的 3 亿美元增长 4 亿美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安德烈亚斯·伦茨/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors love to hate Palantir (PLTR), which was nicknamed a black box company in the past, while others absolutely love it because they believe PLTR's software is the future. In my previous article on PLTR, I stated that based on PLTR's current revenue trend, they were setting up to deliver $399.41 million in revenue for Q3 and $423.22 million of revenue in Q4. The consensus number was $386.56 million of revenue in Q3, and PLTR delivered $392.1 million and forecasted $418 million in Q4 2021. The reaction in premarket as the earnings call was being conducted was nothing but a sea of red as PLTR sharply declined, and each time a gap tried to fill, the next leg on the downward spiral started. The news wasn't even digested, yet people decided to either take profits, exit their position or lost faith in PLTR.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者喜欢讨厌 Palantir (PLTR)，该公司过去被戏称为黑盒公司，而另一些投资者则绝对喜欢它，因为他们相信 PLTR 的软件是未来。在我之前关于 PLTR 的文章中，我表示，根据 PLTR 目前的收入趋势，他们计划在第三季度实现 3.9941 亿美元的收入，在第四季度实现 4.2322 亿美元的收入。第三季度的共识数字是3.8656亿美元的收入，PLTR在2021年第四季度实现了3.921亿美元的收入，预计为4.18亿美元。随着 PLTR 大幅下跌，盘前市场的反应只不过是一片红海，每次试图填补缺口时，螺旋式下降的下一阶段就开始了。这个消息甚至还没有被消化，但人们决定要么获利了结，要么平仓，要么对 PLTR 失去信心。</blockquote></p><p> What wasn't there to like in the earnings release to cause the sell-off that has been hovering in the -9.03% range? PLTR delivered 36% YoY revenue growth, added 34 new customers in Q3, and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. PLTR increased their remaining deal value by 50% YoY to $3.6 billion and delivered $101 million in cash from operations (26% margin), and $199 million in free cash flow (30% margin). PLTR also increased guidance for 2021 as they now expect revenue growth of 40% YoY compared to their previous projection of 30% and increased their projection in FCF to $400 million from $300 million. In addition to the numbers, PLTR announced new product platforms and use cases that have tremendous potential to drive revenue and FCF in the future. I believe this sell-off will be short-lived and I am looking at it as a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>财报发布有什么不妥之处导致抛售一直徘徊在-9.03%的范围内？PLTR 收入同比增长 36%，第三季度新增 34 名客户，并完成 54 笔价值 100 万美元或以上的交易。PLTR 的剩余交易价值同比增长 50%，达到 36 亿美元，并交付了 1.01 亿美元的运营现金（利润率为 26%）和 1.99 亿美元的自由现金流（利润率为 30%）。PLTR 还提高了 2021 年的指引，因为他们现在预计收入同比增长 40%，而之前预测为 30%，并将自由现金流的预测从 3 亿美元上调至 4 亿美元。除了这些数字之外，PLTR 还宣布了新的产品平台和用例，这些平台和用例在未来具有推动收入和自由现金流的巨大潜力。我相信这次抛售是短暂的，我将其视为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cfe1dd0e9b2c6a24ce3cb94bcfda56c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's revenue continues to expand on both the commercial and government side</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 的商业和政府收入持续增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Quarter after Quarter since PLTR went public, their commercial business has expanded. After five quarters of going public, PLTR's quarterly commercial revenue has increased by $62 million or 55.36%. In Q3 2021, PLTR delivered $174 million in revenue from its commercial operations, which accounted for 44.38% of its $392.1 million quarterly revenue. Over the previous two years, PLTR's Q3 revenue has increased by 85.11% as it grew by 35.11% in Q3 2020 YoY and by another 37.01% YoY in Q3 of 2021. PLTR's commercial remaining deal value increased by 101% YoY from $1.1 billion in Q3 2020 to $2.2 billion in Q3 2021. Commercial customers are inviting PLTR to present their software solutions, and PLTR is winning their business. In Q3 2021, PLTR added 34 net new customers increasing their commercial customer base by 20% QoQ to 203. Over the past year, PLTR has seen its commercial customer base expand by 46.04% as it has grown by 64 clients from 139 to 203. Anyone who still classifies PLTR as a black box is not being accurate as the commercial market is learning about PLTR's software platforms and implementing their solutions to improve their operations.</p><p><blockquote>自PLTR上市以来，他们的商业业务一个又一个季度地扩大。上市五个季度后，PLTR的季度商业收入增加了6200万美元，增幅达55.36%。2021 年第三季度，PLTR 的商业运营收入为 1.74 亿美元，占其季度收入 3.921 亿美元的 44.38%。过去两年，PLTR的第三季度收入增长了85.11%，2020年第三季度同比增长35.11%，2021年第三季度又同比增长37.01%。PLTR 的商业剩余交易价值同比增长 101%，从 2020 年第三季度的 11 亿美元增至 2021 年第三季度的 22 亿美元。商业客户正在邀请PLTR展示他们的软件解决方案，PLTR正在赢得他们的业务。2021 年第三季度，PLTR 净增 34 家新客户，商业客户群环比增长 20%，达到 203 家。过去一年，PLTR 的商业客户群增长了 46.04%，客户数量从 139 家增加到 203 家，增加了 64 家。任何仍然将 PLTR 归类为黑匣子的人都是不准确的，因为商业市场正在了解 PLTR 的软件平台并实施其解决方案以改善运营。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4084630f4e4be30a41c925c5a3fd0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since Q1 of 2020, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue by $163.1 million (71.23%) at an average quarterly growth rate of 9.43% QoQ. In Q3 of 2021, this trend stayed intact as revenue increased by $16.1 million QoQ or 4.28%. While the quarterly revenue growth slowed a bit QoQ compared to 10.26% in Q2 2021, PLTR is projecting its Q4 2021 revenue will be $418 million. PLTR is expecting to deliver another company record and generate $25.9 million (6.61%) in QoQ growth to close out the year.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年Q1以来，PLTR的季度收入增加了1.631亿美元（71.23%），平均季度增长率为9.43%。2021 年第三季度，这一趋势保持不变，收入环比增长 1610 万美元，增幅为 4.28%。虽然与 2021 年第二季度的 10.26% 相比，季度收入增长环比略有放缓，但 PLTR 预计其 2021 年第四季度收入将为 4.18 亿美元。PLTR 预计将创造另一项公司纪录，并在年底实现 2590 万美元 (6.61%) 的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The same growth story applies to their total revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as well. Over the last six quarters, PLTR's TTM revenue has increased by $620.6 million (76.55%) from $810.6 million to $1.43 billion. On average, PLTR's TTM revenue growth has increased by $103.42 million (9.94%) QoQ. In Q1 2020 - Q3 2020, their average QoQ revenue growth was $94.03 million, and this has increased substantially as the past three quarters have all increased by at least $105 million QoQ. In Q3 2021, PLTR increased its TTM revenue to $1.43 billion as it added $106.8 million (8.06%) in QoQ revenue growth. Just like the quarterly metric, PLTR's TTM is expected to grow QoQ by an additional $95.9 million to $1.527 billion compared to $1.51 billion in the consensus estimate. This would place PLTR's annual revenue growth YoY well ahead of their 30% projection as they would finish 2021 having increased its revenue by $434.30 million (39.75%)</p><p><blockquote>同样的增长故事也适用于他们过去12个月的总收入（TTM）。过去六个季度，PLTR 的 TTM 收入增加了 6.206 亿美元（76.55%），从 8.106 亿美元增至 14.3 亿美元。平均而言，PLTR 的 TTM 收入增长环比增长 1.0342 亿美元（9.94%）。在2020年第一季度至2020年第三季度，他们的平均环比收入增长为9403万美元，这一数字大幅增长，因为过去三个季度的环比收入都至少增长了1.05亿美元。2021 年第三季度，PLTR 的 TTM 收入增至 14.3 亿美元，环比收入增长 1.068 亿美元（8.06%）。与季度指标一样，PLTR 的 TTM 预计将环比额外增长 9590 万美元，达到 15.27 亿美元，而市场普遍预期为 15.1 亿美元。这将使 PLTR 的年收入同比增长远远超过 30% 的预测，因为到 2021 年，他们的收入将增加 4.3430 亿美元 (39.75%)</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0ec6211d7ecb04785f406c7661c9124\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I am shocked PLTR is still in the red. PLTR is a high-growth company that is now FCF positive and expanding its metrics. In the first nine months of 2020, PLTR generated -$285 million in FCF, and at the end of the first nine months of 2021, PLTR has delivered a $605 million swing as it has produced $320 million in FCF YTD. PLTR previously increased their 2021 FCF guidance to $300, and they just increased it again to $400+ million. In the span of three months, PLTR increased its FCF projection by an additional 33.33%. In Q3, PLTR's FCF margin was 30%, and they are projecting $400+ million in FCF for 2021. At the very minimum, this would mean they will tack on an additional $80 million in FCF for 2021. If PLTR delivers $1.527 billion in revenue and $400 million in FCF, its 2021 FCF margin would be 26.2%. PLTR is still projecting 30% annual revenue growth YoY thru 2025, which would place their 2025 revenue at $4.36 billion based on their projection of $1.527 for 2021. At PLTR's current FCF margin, they would generate $1.14 billion in FCF in 2025. Considering PLTR's current trends, if they exceeded their projections and grew at 35% YoY, it would place their 2025 revenue at $5.07 billion. At their current FCF margin, they would then generate $1.33 billion in FCF in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>我很震惊PLTR仍然处于亏损状态。PLTR 是一家高增长公司，目前 FCF 为正，并正在扩大其指标。在 2020 年前 9 个月，PLTR 产生了 2.85 亿美元的自由现金流，在 2021 年前 9 个月末，PLTR 交付了 6.05 亿美元的波动，年初至今已产生 3.2 亿美元的自由现金流。PLTR 此前将 2021 年自由现金流指引提高到 300 美元，现在又将其再次提高到 4 亿多美元。在三个月的时间里，PLTR将其自由现金流预测额外增加了33.33%。第三季度，PLTR 的自由现金流利润率为 30%，他们预计 2021 年自由现金流利润率将超过 4 亿美元。至少，这意味着他们将在 2021 年额外增加 8000 万美元的自由现金流。如果 PLTR 实现 15.27 亿美元的收入和 4 亿美元的自由现金流，其 2021 年自由现金流利润率将为 26.2%。PLTR 仍预计到 2025 年年收入同比增长 30%，基于 2021 年 1527 美元的预测，他们 2025 年收入将达到 43.6 亿美元。按照 PLTR 目前的自由现金流利润率，他们将在 2025 年产生 11.4 亿美元的自由现金流。考虑到 PLTR 目前的趋势，如果他们超出预期并同比增长 35%，那么他们 2025 年收入将达到 50.7 亿美元。按照目前的自由现金流利润率，到 2025 年，他们将产生 13.3 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87cff0d5c5ef70ea6926a1323c77bfe4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: PLTR)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：PLTR）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PLTR is firing on all cylinders. YoY, their Q3 revenue grew by 36%, they raised guidance on their FCF for a 2nd time from $300 million to $400+ million and have increased their annual revenue growth guidance from 30% to roughly 40%. PLTR is still maintaining its future revenue outlook of 30% annually YoY and is creating some impressive margins. PLTR's commercial revenue grew YoY by 37%, and their government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3. PLTR closed at least 54 deals worth at least $1 million during Q3, and 33 of those were at least $5 million in revenue, and 18 were at least $10 million in revenue. PLTR's growth metrics are impressive, and I am expecting them to under promise and over deliver going forward.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR正在全力以赴。同比，他们的第三季度收入增长了 36%，他们第二次将自由现金流的指导从 3 亿美元提高到 4 亿多美元，并将年收入增长指导从 30% 提高到约 40%。PLTR 仍维持其未来同比增长 30% 的收入前景，并创造了一些令人印象深刻的利润率。PLTR 第三季度商业收入同比增长 37%，政府收入同比增长 34%。PLTR 在第三季度完成了至少 54 笔价值至少 100 万美元的交易，其中 33 笔收入至少为 500 万美元，18 笔收入至少为 1000 万美元。PLTR 的增长指标令人印象深刻，我预计他们未来将低于承诺并超额完成。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir is entering two new sectors that are going to be huge, carbon emissions, and crypto</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 正在进入两个巨大的新领域：碳排放和加密货币</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past, I have written about future opportunities with the government, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM). On today's earnings call, PLTR introduced significant information surrounding two new products they will be offering for carbon emissions and crypto.</p><p><blockquote>过去，我写过关于政府、亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）和国际商业机器公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IBM）未来机会的文章。在今天的财报看涨期权上，PLTR 介绍了有关他们将为碳排放和加密提供的两种新产品的重要信息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> There has been a fundamental shift in the USA over climate, and President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement to reengage in tackling climate change. Part ofthe planis to reach a net-zero emission economy-wide by 2050. Recently President Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. No matter what your stance on climate is, there are many who believe we need to lower emissions, and many nations are working on a goal. To comply, companies such as&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(NYSE:XOM)&nbsp;are conducting longer-term research on several promising innovations with outside organizations, including direct air capture technology to&nbsp;scrub emissions out of the air&nbsp;and carbonate fuel cells&nbsp;to capture industrial emissions&nbsp;from flue gas streams of power plants or manufacturing facilities. Carbon emissions management is already a booming business, and PLTR is creating a module on Foundry to present a single pane to view revenue, margin, production, and all emissions so companies can manage outcomes more efficiently. Personally, I believe this has enormous potential to drive revenue for PLTR in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国在气候问题上发生了根本性的转变，拜登总统重新加入了《巴黎协定》，重新参与应对气候变化。到2050年实现整个经济净零排放计划的一部分。最近，拜登总统在苏格兰格拉斯哥举行的联合国气候峰会上承诺，将与欧盟和其他数十个国家合作，到2030年将全球甲烷排放总量减少30%。无论你对气候的立场是什么，都有许多人认为我们需要降低排放，许多国家正在努力实现一个目标。为了遵守规定，埃克森美孚（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XOM）等公司正在与外部组织一起对几项有前途的创新进行长期研究，包括用于清除空气中排放物的直接空气捕获技术和用于捕获工业排放物的碳酸盐燃料电池来自发电厂或制造设施的烟气流。碳排放管理已经是一项蓬勃发展的业务，PLTR 正在 Foundry 上创建一个模块，以显示单个窗格来查看收入、利润率、产量和所有排放，以便公司可以更有效地管理结果。就我个人而言，我相信这对于推动 PLTR 未来的收入具有巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2386d938e7f452a340dbb130de508f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The second huge prospect that PLTR discussed was Foundry for crypto. It looks like PLTR is leveraging their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. PLTR has worked with several governments over the years to find compliance issues with the world's largest banks and help those banks respond and strengthen their compliance programs. This makes complete sense, and when you go back to the contracts, PLTR has been awarded from the IRS and SEC (discussed in previous articles). In Q3 alone, PLTR inked 6 contracts with the IRS. If I had to guess, PLTR's software would be utilized by the IRS and the SEC on the government side and adopted on the commercial side by banks and crypto exchanges. Currently, in the past 24 hours,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN)&nbsp;is showing that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has incurred a trading volume of $43.8 billion. I think PLTR will end up driving future revenue from both government and commercial contracts from its Foundry for Crypto.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR讨论的第二个巨大前景是加密铸造。看起来PLTR正在利用他们的反洗钱和了解客户的专业知识。多年来，PLTR 与多个政府合作，发现全球最大银行的合规问题，并帮助这些银行做出回应并加强其合规计划。这是完全有道理的，当你回到合同时，PLTR已经被美国国税局和美国证券交易委员会授予了（在以前的文章中讨论过）。仅在第三季度，PLTR 就与美国国税局签署了 6 份合同。如果让我猜的话，PLTR的软件会被政府方面的国税局和美国证券交易委员会使用，并被银行和加密货币交易所采用。目前，在过去24小时内，比特币基地（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）显示比特币（BTC-USD）的交易量为438亿美元。我认为 PLTR 最终将推动其加密货币代工厂的政府和商业合同的未来收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c762e27799c80dbaa9914bb98a6a10\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"234\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Database)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：联邦采购数据库）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005d57c6c5c926b35eac100fa35c7415\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> PLTR has become another statistic of the market misunderstanding its earnings and selling the news when the news was great. What more does anyone want PLTR to do? This was an excellent quarter with revenue increasing 36% YoY in Q3, FCF came in at $119 million with a 30% margin, and PLTR closed 54 deals worth more than $1 million each. PLTR beats revenue estimates, increases guidance for its full-year revenue than for the 2nd time, increases its FCF guidance. This was a sell the news on all positive factors, which is creating a buying opportunity. I am staying long on PLTR and plan to add to my position if the sell-off continues.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR已经成为市场误解其盈利并在消息大好时抛售消息的又一统计数据。还有人希望PLTR做什么？这是一个出色的季度，第三季度收入同比增长 36%，FCF 达到 1.19 亿美元，利润率为 30%，PLTR 完成了 54 笔交易，每笔交易价值超过 100 万美元。PLTR 超出收入预期，第二次上调全年收入指引，上调自由现金流指引。这是一个关于所有积极因素的卖出消息，这创造了一个买入机会。我将长期持有 PLTR，并计划如果抛售继续的话加仓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Seeking Alpha Marketplace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>寻求阿尔法市场</b></blockquote></p><p> I will be launching a subscription service called Barbell Capital on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Barbell Capital will provide exclusive research, model portfolios, investment tools, Q&amp;A sessions, watchlists, and additional features for its members. I will also have a live portfolio dedicated to generating capital from trading, selling puts and selling covered calls. The profits will be allocated to future capital appreciating investments and investing in dividend investments to generate income while we sleep.</p><p><blockquote>我将在Seeking Alpha市场上推出一项名为Barbell Capital的订阅服务。杠铃资本将为其成员提供独家研究、模型投资组合、投资工具、问答会议、观察列表和附加功能。我还将有一个实时投资组合，专门用于通过交易、出售看跌期权和出售备兑评级来产生资本。利润将被分配到未来的资本增值投资和股息投资中，以便在我们睡觉时产生收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468059-palantir-q3-beat-creating-an-opportunity\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468059-palantir-q3-beat-creating-an-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129543601","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating a 30% margin.\nPalantir's commercial revenue increased 37%, and government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3 showing strong forward growth trends.\nPalantir closed 54 deals in Q3 2021 with at least $1 million in contract value with 33 valued at $5+ million and 18 at $10+ million.\nPalantir increases guidance again and expects 40% revenue growth YoY at $1.527 billion and $400 million in FCF up from the previous guidance increase of $300 million.\n\nAndreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment\nSome investors love to hate Palantir (PLTR), which was nicknamed a black box company in the past, while others absolutely love it because they believe PLTR's software is the future. In my previous article on PLTR, I stated that based on PLTR's current revenue trend, they were setting up to deliver $399.41 million in revenue for Q3 and $423.22 million of revenue in Q4. The consensus number was $386.56 million of revenue in Q3, and PLTR delivered $392.1 million and forecasted $418 million in Q4 2021. The reaction in premarket as the earnings call was being conducted was nothing but a sea of red as PLTR sharply declined, and each time a gap tried to fill, the next leg on the downward spiral started. The news wasn't even digested, yet people decided to either take profits, exit their position or lost faith in PLTR.\nWhat wasn't there to like in the earnings release to cause the sell-off that has been hovering in the -9.03% range? PLTR delivered 36% YoY revenue growth, added 34 new customers in Q3, and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. PLTR increased their remaining deal value by 50% YoY to $3.6 billion and delivered $101 million in cash from operations (26% margin), and $199 million in free cash flow (30% margin). PLTR also increased guidance for 2021 as they now expect revenue growth of 40% YoY compared to their previous projection of 30% and increased their projection in FCF to $400 million from $300 million. In addition to the numbers, PLTR announced new product platforms and use cases that have tremendous potential to drive revenue and FCF in the future. I believe this sell-off will be short-lived and I am looking at it as a buying opportunity.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nPalantir's revenue continues to expand on both the commercial and government side\nQuarter after Quarter since PLTR went public, their commercial business has expanded. After five quarters of going public, PLTR's quarterly commercial revenue has increased by $62 million or 55.36%. In Q3 2021, PLTR delivered $174 million in revenue from its commercial operations, which accounted for 44.38% of its $392.1 million quarterly revenue. Over the previous two years, PLTR's Q3 revenue has increased by 85.11% as it grew by 35.11% in Q3 2020 YoY and by another 37.01% YoY in Q3 of 2021. PLTR's commercial remaining deal value increased by 101% YoY from $1.1 billion in Q3 2020 to $2.2 billion in Q3 2021. Commercial customers are inviting PLTR to present their software solutions, and PLTR is winning their business. In Q3 2021, PLTR added 34 net new customers increasing their commercial customer base by 20% QoQ to 203. Over the past year, PLTR has seen its commercial customer base expand by 46.04% as it has grown by 64 clients from 139 to 203. Anyone who still classifies PLTR as a black box is not being accurate as the commercial market is learning about PLTR's software platforms and implementing their solutions to improve their operations.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nSince Q1 of 2020, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue by $163.1 million (71.23%) at an average quarterly growth rate of 9.43% QoQ. In Q3 of 2021, this trend stayed intact as revenue increased by $16.1 million QoQ or 4.28%. While the quarterly revenue growth slowed a bit QoQ compared to 10.26% in Q2 2021, PLTR is projecting its Q4 2021 revenue will be $418 million. PLTR is expecting to deliver another company record and generate $25.9 million (6.61%) in QoQ growth to close out the year.\nThe same growth story applies to their total revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as well. Over the last six quarters, PLTR's TTM revenue has increased by $620.6 million (76.55%) from $810.6 million to $1.43 billion. On average, PLTR's TTM revenue growth has increased by $103.42 million (9.94%) QoQ. In Q1 2020 - Q3 2020, their average QoQ revenue growth was $94.03 million, and this has increased substantially as the past three quarters have all increased by at least $105 million QoQ. In Q3 2021, PLTR increased its TTM revenue to $1.43 billion as it added $106.8 million (8.06%) in QoQ revenue growth. Just like the quarterly metric, PLTR's TTM is expected to grow QoQ by an additional $95.9 million to $1.527 billion compared to $1.51 billion in the consensus estimate. This would place PLTR's annual revenue growth YoY well ahead of their 30% projection as they would finish 2021 having increased its revenue by $434.30 million (39.75%)\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nI am shocked PLTR is still in the red. PLTR is a high-growth company that is now FCF positive and expanding its metrics. In the first nine months of 2020, PLTR generated -$285 million in FCF, and at the end of the first nine months of 2021, PLTR has delivered a $605 million swing as it has produced $320 million in FCF YTD. PLTR previously increased their 2021 FCF guidance to $300, and they just increased it again to $400+ million. In the span of three months, PLTR increased its FCF projection by an additional 33.33%. In Q3, PLTR's FCF margin was 30%, and they are projecting $400+ million in FCF for 2021. At the very minimum, this would mean they will tack on an additional $80 million in FCF for 2021. If PLTR delivers $1.527 billion in revenue and $400 million in FCF, its 2021 FCF margin would be 26.2%. PLTR is still projecting 30% annual revenue growth YoY thru 2025, which would place their 2025 revenue at $4.36 billion based on their projection of $1.527 for 2021. At PLTR's current FCF margin, they would generate $1.14 billion in FCF in 2025. Considering PLTR's current trends, if they exceeded their projections and grew at 35% YoY, it would place their 2025 revenue at $5.07 billion. At their current FCF margin, they would then generate $1.33 billion in FCF in 2025.\n(Source: PLTR)\nPLTR is firing on all cylinders. YoY, their Q3 revenue grew by 36%, they raised guidance on their FCF for a 2nd time from $300 million to $400+ million and have increased their annual revenue growth guidance from 30% to roughly 40%. PLTR is still maintaining its future revenue outlook of 30% annually YoY and is creating some impressive margins. PLTR's commercial revenue grew YoY by 37%, and their government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3. PLTR closed at least 54 deals worth at least $1 million during Q3, and 33 of those were at least $5 million in revenue, and 18 were at least $10 million in revenue. PLTR's growth metrics are impressive, and I am expecting them to under promise and over deliver going forward.\nPalantir is entering two new sectors that are going to be huge, carbon emissions, and crypto\nIn the past, I have written about future opportunities with the government, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM). On today's earnings call, PLTR introduced significant information surrounding two new products they will be offering for carbon emissions and crypto.\nThere has been a fundamental shift in the USA over climate, and President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement to reengage in tackling climate change. Part ofthe planis to reach a net-zero emission economy-wide by 2050. Recently President Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. No matter what your stance on climate is, there are many who believe we need to lower emissions, and many nations are working on a goal. To comply, companies such as Exxon Mobil(NYSE:XOM) are conducting longer-term research on several promising innovations with outside organizations, including direct air capture technology to scrub emissions out of the air and carbonate fuel cells to capture industrial emissions from flue gas streams of power plants or manufacturing facilities. Carbon emissions management is already a booming business, and PLTR is creating a module on Foundry to present a single pane to view revenue, margin, production, and all emissions so companies can manage outcomes more efficiently. Personally, I believe this has enormous potential to drive revenue for PLTR in the future.\n(Source: Palantir)\nThe second huge prospect that PLTR discussed was Foundry for crypto. It looks like PLTR is leveraging their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. PLTR has worked with several governments over the years to find compliance issues with the world's largest banks and help those banks respond and strengthen their compliance programs. This makes complete sense, and when you go back to the contracts, PLTR has been awarded from the IRS and SEC (discussed in previous articles). In Q3 alone, PLTR inked 6 contracts with the IRS. If I had to guess, PLTR's software would be utilized by the IRS and the SEC on the government side and adopted on the commercial side by banks and crypto exchanges. Currently, in the past 24 hours,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN) is showing that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has incurred a trading volume of $43.8 billion. I think PLTR will end up driving future revenue from both government and commercial contracts from its Foundry for Crypto.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Database)\n(Source: Palantir)\nConclusion\nPLTR has become another statistic of the market misunderstanding its earnings and selling the news when the news was great. What more does anyone want PLTR to do? This was an excellent quarter with revenue increasing 36% YoY in Q3, FCF came in at $119 million with a 30% margin, and PLTR closed 54 deals worth more than $1 million each. PLTR beats revenue estimates, increases guidance for its full-year revenue than for the 2nd time, increases its FCF guidance. This was a sell the news on all positive factors, which is creating a buying opportunity. I am staying long on PLTR and plan to add to my position if the sell-off continues.\nSeeking Alpha Marketplace\nI will be launching a subscription service called Barbell Capital on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Barbell Capital will provide exclusive research, model portfolios, investment tools, Q&A sessions, watchlists, and additional features for its members. I will also have a live portfolio dedicated to generating capital from trading, selling puts and selling covered calls. The profits will be allocated to future capital appreciating investments and investing in dividend investments to generate income while we sleep.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879105341,"gmtCreate":1636686663788,"gmtModify":1636686683983,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879105341","repostId":"1174358718","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":873002602,"gmtCreate":1636785467012,"gmtModify":1636785467107,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873002602","repostId":"1129543601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129543601","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636770982,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129543601?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 10:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度超出预期，自由现金流增加，提高指引，但抛售创造机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129543601","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating a 30% margin.</li>  <li>Palantir's commercial revenue increased 37%, and government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3 showing strong forward growth trends.</li>  <li>Palantir closed 54 deals in Q3 2021 with at least $1 million in contract value with 33 valued at $5+ million and 18 at $10+ million.</li>  <li>Palantir increases guidance again and expects 40% revenue growth YoY at $1.527 billion and $400 million in FCF up from the previous guidance increase of $300 million.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd5d395baf412802ef5e554f0efa64b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 的收入环比增长 36%，同时产生 1.19 亿美元的自由现金流，利润率为 30%。</li><li>Palantir 第三季度商业收入增长 37%，政府收入同比增长 34%，显示出强劲的前瞻性增长趋势。</li><li>Palantir在2021年第三季度完成了54笔交易，合同价值至少为100万美元，其中33笔价值超过500万美元，18笔价值超过1000万美元。</li><li>Palantir 再次上调指引，预计收入同比增长 40%，达到 15.27 亿美元，自由现金流较之前的 3 亿美元增长 4 亿美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安德烈亚斯·伦茨/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors love to hate Palantir (PLTR), which was nicknamed a black box company in the past, while others absolutely love it because they believe PLTR's software is the future. In my previous article on PLTR, I stated that based on PLTR's current revenue trend, they were setting up to deliver $399.41 million in revenue for Q3 and $423.22 million of revenue in Q4. The consensus number was $386.56 million of revenue in Q3, and PLTR delivered $392.1 million and forecasted $418 million in Q4 2021. The reaction in premarket as the earnings call was being conducted was nothing but a sea of red as PLTR sharply declined, and each time a gap tried to fill, the next leg on the downward spiral started. The news wasn't even digested, yet people decided to either take profits, exit their position or lost faith in PLTR.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者喜欢讨厌 Palantir (PLTR)，该公司过去被戏称为黑盒公司，而另一些投资者则绝对喜欢它，因为他们相信 PLTR 的软件是未来。在我之前关于 PLTR 的文章中，我表示，根据 PLTR 目前的收入趋势，他们计划在第三季度实现 3.9941 亿美元的收入，在第四季度实现 4.2322 亿美元的收入。第三季度的共识数字是3.8656亿美元的收入，PLTR在2021年第四季度实现了3.921亿美元的收入，预计为4.18亿美元。随着 PLTR 大幅下跌，盘前市场的反应只不过是一片红海，每次试图填补缺口时，螺旋式下降的下一阶段就开始了。这个消息甚至还没有被消化，但人们决定要么获利了结，要么平仓，要么对 PLTR 失去信心。</blockquote></p><p> What wasn't there to like in the earnings release to cause the sell-off that has been hovering in the -9.03% range? PLTR delivered 36% YoY revenue growth, added 34 new customers in Q3, and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. PLTR increased their remaining deal value by 50% YoY to $3.6 billion and delivered $101 million in cash from operations (26% margin), and $199 million in free cash flow (30% margin). PLTR also increased guidance for 2021 as they now expect revenue growth of 40% YoY compared to their previous projection of 30% and increased their projection in FCF to $400 million from $300 million. In addition to the numbers, PLTR announced new product platforms and use cases that have tremendous potential to drive revenue and FCF in the future. I believe this sell-off will be short-lived and I am looking at it as a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>财报发布有什么不妥之处导致抛售一直徘徊在-9.03%的范围内？PLTR 收入同比增长 36%，第三季度新增 34 名客户，并完成 54 笔价值 100 万美元或以上的交易。PLTR 的剩余交易价值同比增长 50%，达到 36 亿美元，并交付了 1.01 亿美元的运营现金（利润率为 26%）和 1.99 亿美元的自由现金流（利润率为 30%）。PLTR 还提高了 2021 年的指引，因为他们现在预计收入同比增长 40%，而之前预测为 30%，并将自由现金流的预测从 3 亿美元上调至 4 亿美元。除了这些数字之外，PLTR 还宣布了新的产品平台和用例，这些平台和用例在未来具有推动收入和自由现金流的巨大潜力。我相信这次抛售是短暂的，我将其视为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cfe1dd0e9b2c6a24ce3cb94bcfda56c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's revenue continues to expand on both the commercial and government side</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 的商业和政府收入持续增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Quarter after Quarter since PLTR went public, their commercial business has expanded. After five quarters of going public, PLTR's quarterly commercial revenue has increased by $62 million or 55.36%. In Q3 2021, PLTR delivered $174 million in revenue from its commercial operations, which accounted for 44.38% of its $392.1 million quarterly revenue. Over the previous two years, PLTR's Q3 revenue has increased by 85.11% as it grew by 35.11% in Q3 2020 YoY and by another 37.01% YoY in Q3 of 2021. PLTR's commercial remaining deal value increased by 101% YoY from $1.1 billion in Q3 2020 to $2.2 billion in Q3 2021. Commercial customers are inviting PLTR to present their software solutions, and PLTR is winning their business. In Q3 2021, PLTR added 34 net new customers increasing their commercial customer base by 20% QoQ to 203. Over the past year, PLTR has seen its commercial customer base expand by 46.04% as it has grown by 64 clients from 139 to 203. Anyone who still classifies PLTR as a black box is not being accurate as the commercial market is learning about PLTR's software platforms and implementing their solutions to improve their operations.</p><p><blockquote>自PLTR上市以来，他们的商业业务一个又一个季度地扩大。上市五个季度后，PLTR的季度商业收入增加了6200万美元，增幅达55.36%。2021 年第三季度，PLTR 的商业运营收入为 1.74 亿美元，占其季度收入 3.921 亿美元的 44.38%。过去两年，PLTR的第三季度收入增长了85.11%，2020年第三季度同比增长35.11%，2021年第三季度又同比增长37.01%。PLTR 的商业剩余交易价值同比增长 101%，从 2020 年第三季度的 11 亿美元增至 2021 年第三季度的 22 亿美元。商业客户正在邀请PLTR展示他们的软件解决方案，PLTR正在赢得他们的业务。2021 年第三季度，PLTR 净增 34 家新客户，商业客户群环比增长 20%，达到 203 家。过去一年，PLTR 的商业客户群增长了 46.04%，客户数量从 139 家增加到 203 家，增加了 64 家。任何仍然将 PLTR 归类为黑匣子的人都是不准确的，因为商业市场正在了解 PLTR 的软件平台并实施其解决方案以改善运营。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4084630f4e4be30a41c925c5a3fd0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since Q1 of 2020, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue by $163.1 million (71.23%) at an average quarterly growth rate of 9.43% QoQ. In Q3 of 2021, this trend stayed intact as revenue increased by $16.1 million QoQ or 4.28%. While the quarterly revenue growth slowed a bit QoQ compared to 10.26% in Q2 2021, PLTR is projecting its Q4 2021 revenue will be $418 million. PLTR is expecting to deliver another company record and generate $25.9 million (6.61%) in QoQ growth to close out the year.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年Q1以来，PLTR的季度收入增加了1.631亿美元（71.23%），平均季度增长率为9.43%。2021 年第三季度，这一趋势保持不变，收入环比增长 1610 万美元，增幅为 4.28%。虽然与 2021 年第二季度的 10.26% 相比，季度收入增长环比略有放缓，但 PLTR 预计其 2021 年第四季度收入将为 4.18 亿美元。PLTR 预计将创造另一项公司纪录，并在年底实现 2590 万美元 (6.61%) 的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The same growth story applies to their total revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as well. Over the last six quarters, PLTR's TTM revenue has increased by $620.6 million (76.55%) from $810.6 million to $1.43 billion. On average, PLTR's TTM revenue growth has increased by $103.42 million (9.94%) QoQ. In Q1 2020 - Q3 2020, their average QoQ revenue growth was $94.03 million, and this has increased substantially as the past three quarters have all increased by at least $105 million QoQ. In Q3 2021, PLTR increased its TTM revenue to $1.43 billion as it added $106.8 million (8.06%) in QoQ revenue growth. Just like the quarterly metric, PLTR's TTM is expected to grow QoQ by an additional $95.9 million to $1.527 billion compared to $1.51 billion in the consensus estimate. This would place PLTR's annual revenue growth YoY well ahead of their 30% projection as they would finish 2021 having increased its revenue by $434.30 million (39.75%)</p><p><blockquote>同样的增长故事也适用于他们过去12个月的总收入（TTM）。过去六个季度，PLTR 的 TTM 收入增加了 6.206 亿美元（76.55%），从 8.106 亿美元增至 14.3 亿美元。平均而言，PLTR 的 TTM 收入增长环比增长 1.0342 亿美元（9.94%）。在2020年第一季度至2020年第三季度，他们的平均环比收入增长为9403万美元，这一数字大幅增长，因为过去三个季度的环比收入都至少增长了1.05亿美元。2021 年第三季度，PLTR 的 TTM 收入增至 14.3 亿美元，环比收入增长 1.068 亿美元（8.06%）。与季度指标一样，PLTR 的 TTM 预计将环比额外增长 9590 万美元，达到 15.27 亿美元，而市场普遍预期为 15.1 亿美元。这将使 PLTR 的年收入同比增长远远超过 30% 的预测，因为到 2021 年，他们的收入将增加 4.3430 亿美元 (39.75%)</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0ec6211d7ecb04785f406c7661c9124\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I am shocked PLTR is still in the red. PLTR is a high-growth company that is now FCF positive and expanding its metrics. In the first nine months of 2020, PLTR generated -$285 million in FCF, and at the end of the first nine months of 2021, PLTR has delivered a $605 million swing as it has produced $320 million in FCF YTD. PLTR previously increased their 2021 FCF guidance to $300, and they just increased it again to $400+ million. In the span of three months, PLTR increased its FCF projection by an additional 33.33%. In Q3, PLTR's FCF margin was 30%, and they are projecting $400+ million in FCF for 2021. At the very minimum, this would mean they will tack on an additional $80 million in FCF for 2021. If PLTR delivers $1.527 billion in revenue and $400 million in FCF, its 2021 FCF margin would be 26.2%. PLTR is still projecting 30% annual revenue growth YoY thru 2025, which would place their 2025 revenue at $4.36 billion based on their projection of $1.527 for 2021. At PLTR's current FCF margin, they would generate $1.14 billion in FCF in 2025. Considering PLTR's current trends, if they exceeded their projections and grew at 35% YoY, it would place their 2025 revenue at $5.07 billion. At their current FCF margin, they would then generate $1.33 billion in FCF in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>我很震惊PLTR仍然处于亏损状态。PLTR 是一家高增长公司，目前 FCF 为正，并正在扩大其指标。在 2020 年前 9 个月，PLTR 产生了 2.85 亿美元的自由现金流，在 2021 年前 9 个月末，PLTR 交付了 6.05 亿美元的波动，年初至今已产生 3.2 亿美元的自由现金流。PLTR 此前将 2021 年自由现金流指引提高到 300 美元，现在又将其再次提高到 4 亿多美元。在三个月的时间里，PLTR将其自由现金流预测额外增加了33.33%。第三季度，PLTR 的自由现金流利润率为 30%，他们预计 2021 年自由现金流利润率将超过 4 亿美元。至少，这意味着他们将在 2021 年额外增加 8000 万美元的自由现金流。如果 PLTR 实现 15.27 亿美元的收入和 4 亿美元的自由现金流，其 2021 年自由现金流利润率将为 26.2%。PLTR 仍预计到 2025 年年收入同比增长 30%，基于 2021 年 1527 美元的预测，他们 2025 年收入将达到 43.6 亿美元。按照 PLTR 目前的自由现金流利润率，他们将在 2025 年产生 11.4 亿美元的自由现金流。考虑到 PLTR 目前的趋势，如果他们超出预期并同比增长 35%，那么他们 2025 年收入将达到 50.7 亿美元。按照目前的自由现金流利润率，到 2025 年，他们将产生 13.3 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87cff0d5c5ef70ea6926a1323c77bfe4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: PLTR)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：PLTR）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PLTR is firing on all cylinders. YoY, their Q3 revenue grew by 36%, they raised guidance on their FCF for a 2nd time from $300 million to $400+ million and have increased their annual revenue growth guidance from 30% to roughly 40%. PLTR is still maintaining its future revenue outlook of 30% annually YoY and is creating some impressive margins. PLTR's commercial revenue grew YoY by 37%, and their government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3. PLTR closed at least 54 deals worth at least $1 million during Q3, and 33 of those were at least $5 million in revenue, and 18 were at least $10 million in revenue. PLTR's growth metrics are impressive, and I am expecting them to under promise and over deliver going forward.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR正在全力以赴。同比，他们的第三季度收入增长了 36%，他们第二次将自由现金流的指导从 3 亿美元提高到 4 亿多美元，并将年收入增长指导从 30% 提高到约 40%。PLTR 仍维持其未来同比增长 30% 的收入前景，并创造了一些令人印象深刻的利润率。PLTR 第三季度商业收入同比增长 37%，政府收入同比增长 34%。PLTR 在第三季度完成了至少 54 笔价值至少 100 万美元的交易，其中 33 笔收入至少为 500 万美元，18 笔收入至少为 1000 万美元。PLTR 的增长指标令人印象深刻，我预计他们未来将低于承诺并超额完成。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir is entering two new sectors that are going to be huge, carbon emissions, and crypto</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 正在进入两个巨大的新领域：碳排放和加密货币</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past, I have written about future opportunities with the government, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM). On today's earnings call, PLTR introduced significant information surrounding two new products they will be offering for carbon emissions and crypto.</p><p><blockquote>过去，我写过关于政府、亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）和国际商业机器公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IBM）未来机会的文章。在今天的财报看涨期权上，PLTR 介绍了有关他们将为碳排放和加密提供的两种新产品的重要信息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> There has been a fundamental shift in the USA over climate, and President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement to reengage in tackling climate change. Part ofthe planis to reach a net-zero emission economy-wide by 2050. Recently President Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. No matter what your stance on climate is, there are many who believe we need to lower emissions, and many nations are working on a goal. To comply, companies such as&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(NYSE:XOM)&nbsp;are conducting longer-term research on several promising innovations with outside organizations, including direct air capture technology to&nbsp;scrub emissions out of the air&nbsp;and carbonate fuel cells&nbsp;to capture industrial emissions&nbsp;from flue gas streams of power plants or manufacturing facilities. Carbon emissions management is already a booming business, and PLTR is creating a module on Foundry to present a single pane to view revenue, margin, production, and all emissions so companies can manage outcomes more efficiently. Personally, I believe this has enormous potential to drive revenue for PLTR in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国在气候问题上发生了根本性的转变，拜登总统重新加入了《巴黎协定》，重新参与应对气候变化。到2050年实现整个经济净零排放计划的一部分。最近，拜登总统在苏格兰格拉斯哥举行的联合国气候峰会上承诺，将与欧盟和其他数十个国家合作，到2030年将全球甲烷排放总量减少30%。无论你对气候的立场是什么，都有许多人认为我们需要降低排放，许多国家正在努力实现一个目标。为了遵守规定，埃克森美孚（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XOM）等公司正在与外部组织一起对几项有前途的创新进行长期研究，包括用于清除空气中排放物的直接空气捕获技术和用于捕获工业排放物的碳酸盐燃料电池来自发电厂或制造设施的烟气流。碳排放管理已经是一项蓬勃发展的业务，PLTR 正在 Foundry 上创建一个模块，以显示单个窗格来查看收入、利润率、产量和所有排放，以便公司可以更有效地管理结果。就我个人而言，我相信这对于推动 PLTR 未来的收入具有巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2386d938e7f452a340dbb130de508f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The second huge prospect that PLTR discussed was Foundry for crypto. It looks like PLTR is leveraging their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. PLTR has worked with several governments over the years to find compliance issues with the world's largest banks and help those banks respond and strengthen their compliance programs. This makes complete sense, and when you go back to the contracts, PLTR has been awarded from the IRS and SEC (discussed in previous articles). In Q3 alone, PLTR inked 6 contracts with the IRS. If I had to guess, PLTR's software would be utilized by the IRS and the SEC on the government side and adopted on the commercial side by banks and crypto exchanges. Currently, in the past 24 hours,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN)&nbsp;is showing that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has incurred a trading volume of $43.8 billion. I think PLTR will end up driving future revenue from both government and commercial contracts from its Foundry for Crypto.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR讨论的第二个巨大前景是加密铸造。看起来PLTR正在利用他们的反洗钱和了解客户的专业知识。多年来，PLTR 与多个政府合作，发现全球最大银行的合规问题，并帮助这些银行做出回应并加强其合规计划。这是完全有道理的，当你回到合同时，PLTR已经被美国国税局和美国证券交易委员会授予了（在以前的文章中讨论过）。仅在第三季度，PLTR 就与美国国税局签署了 6 份合同。如果让我猜的话，PLTR的软件会被政府方面的国税局和美国证券交易委员会使用，并被银行和加密货币交易所采用。目前，在过去24小时内，比特币基地（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）显示比特币（BTC-USD）的交易量为438亿美元。我认为 PLTR 最终将推动其加密货币代工厂的政府和商业合同的未来收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c762e27799c80dbaa9914bb98a6a10\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"234\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Database)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：联邦采购数据库）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005d57c6c5c926b35eac100fa35c7415\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> PLTR has become another statistic of the market misunderstanding its earnings and selling the news when the news was great. What more does anyone want PLTR to do? This was an excellent quarter with revenue increasing 36% YoY in Q3, FCF came in at $119 million with a 30% margin, and PLTR closed 54 deals worth more than $1 million each. PLTR beats revenue estimates, increases guidance for its full-year revenue than for the 2nd time, increases its FCF guidance. This was a sell the news on all positive factors, which is creating a buying opportunity. I am staying long on PLTR and plan to add to my position if the sell-off continues.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR已经成为市场误解其盈利并在消息大好时抛售消息的又一统计数据。还有人希望PLTR做什么？这是一个出色的季度，第三季度收入同比增长 36%，FCF 达到 1.19 亿美元，利润率为 30%，PLTR 完成了 54 笔交易，每笔交易价值超过 100 万美元。PLTR 超出收入预期，第二次上调全年收入指引，上调自由现金流指引。这是一个关于所有积极因素的卖出消息，这创造了一个买入机会。我将长期持有 PLTR，并计划如果抛售继续的话加仓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Seeking Alpha Marketplace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>寻求阿尔法市场</b></blockquote></p><p> I will be launching a subscription service called Barbell Capital on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Barbell Capital will provide exclusive research, model portfolios, investment tools, Q&amp;A sessions, watchlists, and additional features for its members. I will also have a live portfolio dedicated to generating capital from trading, selling puts and selling covered calls. The profits will be allocated to future capital appreciating investments and investing in dividend investments to generate income while we sleep.</p><p><blockquote>我将在Seeking Alpha市场上推出一项名为Barbell Capital的订阅服务。杠铃资本将为其成员提供独家研究、模型投资组合、投资工具、问答会议、观察列表和附加功能。我还将有一个实时投资组合，专门用于通过交易、出售看跌期权和出售备兑评级来产生资本。利润将被分配到未来的资本增值投资和股息投资中，以便在我们睡觉时产生收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度超出预期，自由现金流增加，提高指引，但抛售创造机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度超出预期，自由现金流增加，提高指引，但抛售创造机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-13 10:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating a 30% margin.</li>  <li>Palantir's commercial revenue increased 37%, and government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3 showing strong forward growth trends.</li>  <li>Palantir closed 54 deals in Q3 2021 with at least $1 million in contract value with 33 valued at $5+ million and 18 at $10+ million.</li>  <li>Palantir increases guidance again and expects 40% revenue growth YoY at $1.527 billion and $400 million in FCF up from the previous guidance increase of $300 million.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd5d395baf412802ef5e554f0efa64b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 的收入环比增长 36%，同时产生 1.19 亿美元的自由现金流，利润率为 30%。</li><li>Palantir 第三季度商业收入增长 37%，政府收入同比增长 34%，显示出强劲的前瞻性增长趋势。</li><li>Palantir在2021年第三季度完成了54笔交易，合同价值至少为100万美元，其中33笔价值超过500万美元，18笔价值超过1000万美元。</li><li>Palantir 再次上调指引，预计收入同比增长 40%，达到 15.27 亿美元，自由现金流较之前的 3 亿美元增长 4 亿美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安德烈亚斯·伦茨/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors love to hate Palantir (PLTR), which was nicknamed a black box company in the past, while others absolutely love it because they believe PLTR's software is the future. In my previous article on PLTR, I stated that based on PLTR's current revenue trend, they were setting up to deliver $399.41 million in revenue for Q3 and $423.22 million of revenue in Q4. The consensus number was $386.56 million of revenue in Q3, and PLTR delivered $392.1 million and forecasted $418 million in Q4 2021. The reaction in premarket as the earnings call was being conducted was nothing but a sea of red as PLTR sharply declined, and each time a gap tried to fill, the next leg on the downward spiral started. The news wasn't even digested, yet people decided to either take profits, exit their position or lost faith in PLTR.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者喜欢讨厌 Palantir (PLTR)，该公司过去被戏称为黑盒公司，而另一些投资者则绝对喜欢它，因为他们相信 PLTR 的软件是未来。在我之前关于 PLTR 的文章中，我表示，根据 PLTR 目前的收入趋势，他们计划在第三季度实现 3.9941 亿美元的收入，在第四季度实现 4.2322 亿美元的收入。第三季度的共识数字是3.8656亿美元的收入，PLTR在2021年第四季度实现了3.921亿美元的收入，预计为4.18亿美元。随着 PLTR 大幅下跌，盘前市场的反应只不过是一片红海，每次试图填补缺口时，螺旋式下降的下一阶段就开始了。这个消息甚至还没有被消化，但人们决定要么获利了结，要么平仓，要么对 PLTR 失去信心。</blockquote></p><p> What wasn't there to like in the earnings release to cause the sell-off that has been hovering in the -9.03% range? PLTR delivered 36% YoY revenue growth, added 34 new customers in Q3, and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. PLTR increased their remaining deal value by 50% YoY to $3.6 billion and delivered $101 million in cash from operations (26% margin), and $199 million in free cash flow (30% margin). PLTR also increased guidance for 2021 as they now expect revenue growth of 40% YoY compared to their previous projection of 30% and increased their projection in FCF to $400 million from $300 million. In addition to the numbers, PLTR announced new product platforms and use cases that have tremendous potential to drive revenue and FCF in the future. I believe this sell-off will be short-lived and I am looking at it as a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>财报发布有什么不妥之处导致抛售一直徘徊在-9.03%的范围内？PLTR 收入同比增长 36%，第三季度新增 34 名客户，并完成 54 笔价值 100 万美元或以上的交易。PLTR 的剩余交易价值同比增长 50%，达到 36 亿美元，并交付了 1.01 亿美元的运营现金（利润率为 26%）和 1.99 亿美元的自由现金流（利润率为 30%）。PLTR 还提高了 2021 年的指引，因为他们现在预计收入同比增长 40%，而之前预测为 30%，并将自由现金流的预测从 3 亿美元上调至 4 亿美元。除了这些数字之外，PLTR 还宣布了新的产品平台和用例，这些平台和用例在未来具有推动收入和自由现金流的巨大潜力。我相信这次抛售是短暂的，我将其视为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cfe1dd0e9b2c6a24ce3cb94bcfda56c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's revenue continues to expand on both the commercial and government side</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 的商业和政府收入持续增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Quarter after Quarter since PLTR went public, their commercial business has expanded. After five quarters of going public, PLTR's quarterly commercial revenue has increased by $62 million or 55.36%. In Q3 2021, PLTR delivered $174 million in revenue from its commercial operations, which accounted for 44.38% of its $392.1 million quarterly revenue. Over the previous two years, PLTR's Q3 revenue has increased by 85.11% as it grew by 35.11% in Q3 2020 YoY and by another 37.01% YoY in Q3 of 2021. PLTR's commercial remaining deal value increased by 101% YoY from $1.1 billion in Q3 2020 to $2.2 billion in Q3 2021. Commercial customers are inviting PLTR to present their software solutions, and PLTR is winning their business. In Q3 2021, PLTR added 34 net new customers increasing their commercial customer base by 20% QoQ to 203. Over the past year, PLTR has seen its commercial customer base expand by 46.04% as it has grown by 64 clients from 139 to 203. Anyone who still classifies PLTR as a black box is not being accurate as the commercial market is learning about PLTR's software platforms and implementing their solutions to improve their operations.</p><p><blockquote>自PLTR上市以来，他们的商业业务一个又一个季度地扩大。上市五个季度后，PLTR的季度商业收入增加了6200万美元，增幅达55.36%。2021 年第三季度，PLTR 的商业运营收入为 1.74 亿美元，占其季度收入 3.921 亿美元的 44.38%。过去两年，PLTR的第三季度收入增长了85.11%，2020年第三季度同比增长35.11%，2021年第三季度又同比增长37.01%。PLTR 的商业剩余交易价值同比增长 101%，从 2020 年第三季度的 11 亿美元增至 2021 年第三季度的 22 亿美元。商业客户正在邀请PLTR展示他们的软件解决方案，PLTR正在赢得他们的业务。2021 年第三季度，PLTR 净增 34 家新客户，商业客户群环比增长 20%，达到 203 家。过去一年，PLTR 的商业客户群增长了 46.04%，客户数量从 139 家增加到 203 家，增加了 64 家。任何仍然将 PLTR 归类为黑匣子的人都是不准确的，因为商业市场正在了解 PLTR 的软件平台并实施其解决方案以改善运营。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4084630f4e4be30a41c925c5a3fd0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since Q1 of 2020, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue by $163.1 million (71.23%) at an average quarterly growth rate of 9.43% QoQ. In Q3 of 2021, this trend stayed intact as revenue increased by $16.1 million QoQ or 4.28%. While the quarterly revenue growth slowed a bit QoQ compared to 10.26% in Q2 2021, PLTR is projecting its Q4 2021 revenue will be $418 million. PLTR is expecting to deliver another company record and generate $25.9 million (6.61%) in QoQ growth to close out the year.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年Q1以来，PLTR的季度收入增加了1.631亿美元（71.23%），平均季度增长率为9.43%。2021 年第三季度，这一趋势保持不变，收入环比增长 1610 万美元，增幅为 4.28%。虽然与 2021 年第二季度的 10.26% 相比，季度收入增长环比略有放缓，但 PLTR 预计其 2021 年第四季度收入将为 4.18 亿美元。PLTR 预计将创造另一项公司纪录，并在年底实现 2590 万美元 (6.61%) 的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The same growth story applies to their total revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as well. Over the last six quarters, PLTR's TTM revenue has increased by $620.6 million (76.55%) from $810.6 million to $1.43 billion. On average, PLTR's TTM revenue growth has increased by $103.42 million (9.94%) QoQ. In Q1 2020 - Q3 2020, their average QoQ revenue growth was $94.03 million, and this has increased substantially as the past three quarters have all increased by at least $105 million QoQ. In Q3 2021, PLTR increased its TTM revenue to $1.43 billion as it added $106.8 million (8.06%) in QoQ revenue growth. Just like the quarterly metric, PLTR's TTM is expected to grow QoQ by an additional $95.9 million to $1.527 billion compared to $1.51 billion in the consensus estimate. This would place PLTR's annual revenue growth YoY well ahead of their 30% projection as they would finish 2021 having increased its revenue by $434.30 million (39.75%)</p><p><blockquote>同样的增长故事也适用于他们过去12个月的总收入（TTM）。过去六个季度，PLTR 的 TTM 收入增加了 6.206 亿美元（76.55%），从 8.106 亿美元增至 14.3 亿美元。平均而言，PLTR 的 TTM 收入增长环比增长 1.0342 亿美元（9.94%）。在2020年第一季度至2020年第三季度，他们的平均环比收入增长为9403万美元，这一数字大幅增长，因为过去三个季度的环比收入都至少增长了1.05亿美元。2021 年第三季度，PLTR 的 TTM 收入增至 14.3 亿美元，环比收入增长 1.068 亿美元（8.06%）。与季度指标一样，PLTR 的 TTM 预计将环比额外增长 9590 万美元，达到 15.27 亿美元，而市场普遍预期为 15.1 亿美元。这将使 PLTR 的年收入同比增长远远超过 30% 的预测，因为到 2021 年，他们的收入将增加 4.3430 亿美元 (39.75%)</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0ec6211d7ecb04785f406c7661c9124\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I am shocked PLTR is still in the red. PLTR is a high-growth company that is now FCF positive and expanding its metrics. In the first nine months of 2020, PLTR generated -$285 million in FCF, and at the end of the first nine months of 2021, PLTR has delivered a $605 million swing as it has produced $320 million in FCF YTD. PLTR previously increased their 2021 FCF guidance to $300, and they just increased it again to $400+ million. In the span of three months, PLTR increased its FCF projection by an additional 33.33%. In Q3, PLTR's FCF margin was 30%, and they are projecting $400+ million in FCF for 2021. At the very minimum, this would mean they will tack on an additional $80 million in FCF for 2021. If PLTR delivers $1.527 billion in revenue and $400 million in FCF, its 2021 FCF margin would be 26.2%. PLTR is still projecting 30% annual revenue growth YoY thru 2025, which would place their 2025 revenue at $4.36 billion based on their projection of $1.527 for 2021. At PLTR's current FCF margin, they would generate $1.14 billion in FCF in 2025. Considering PLTR's current trends, if they exceeded their projections and grew at 35% YoY, it would place their 2025 revenue at $5.07 billion. At their current FCF margin, they would then generate $1.33 billion in FCF in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>我很震惊PLTR仍然处于亏损状态。PLTR 是一家高增长公司，目前 FCF 为正，并正在扩大其指标。在 2020 年前 9 个月，PLTR 产生了 2.85 亿美元的自由现金流，在 2021 年前 9 个月末，PLTR 交付了 6.05 亿美元的波动，年初至今已产生 3.2 亿美元的自由现金流。PLTR 此前将 2021 年自由现金流指引提高到 300 美元，现在又将其再次提高到 4 亿多美元。在三个月的时间里，PLTR将其自由现金流预测额外增加了33.33%。第三季度，PLTR 的自由现金流利润率为 30%，他们预计 2021 年自由现金流利润率将超过 4 亿美元。至少，这意味着他们将在 2021 年额外增加 8000 万美元的自由现金流。如果 PLTR 实现 15.27 亿美元的收入和 4 亿美元的自由现金流，其 2021 年自由现金流利润率将为 26.2%。PLTR 仍预计到 2025 年年收入同比增长 30%，基于 2021 年 1527 美元的预测，他们 2025 年收入将达到 43.6 亿美元。按照 PLTR 目前的自由现金流利润率，他们将在 2025 年产生 11.4 亿美元的自由现金流。考虑到 PLTR 目前的趋势，如果他们超出预期并同比增长 35%，那么他们 2025 年收入将达到 50.7 亿美元。按照目前的自由现金流利润率，到 2025 年，他们将产生 13.3 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87cff0d5c5ef70ea6926a1323c77bfe4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: PLTR)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：PLTR）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PLTR is firing on all cylinders. YoY, their Q3 revenue grew by 36%, they raised guidance on their FCF for a 2nd time from $300 million to $400+ million and have increased their annual revenue growth guidance from 30% to roughly 40%. PLTR is still maintaining its future revenue outlook of 30% annually YoY and is creating some impressive margins. PLTR's commercial revenue grew YoY by 37%, and their government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3. PLTR closed at least 54 deals worth at least $1 million during Q3, and 33 of those were at least $5 million in revenue, and 18 were at least $10 million in revenue. PLTR's growth metrics are impressive, and I am expecting them to under promise and over deliver going forward.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR正在全力以赴。同比，他们的第三季度收入增长了 36%，他们第二次将自由现金流的指导从 3 亿美元提高到 4 亿多美元，并将年收入增长指导从 30% 提高到约 40%。PLTR 仍维持其未来同比增长 30% 的收入前景，并创造了一些令人印象深刻的利润率。PLTR 第三季度商业收入同比增长 37%，政府收入同比增长 34%。PLTR 在第三季度完成了至少 54 笔价值至少 100 万美元的交易，其中 33 笔收入至少为 500 万美元，18 笔收入至少为 1000 万美元。PLTR 的增长指标令人印象深刻，我预计他们未来将低于承诺并超额完成。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir is entering two new sectors that are going to be huge, carbon emissions, and crypto</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 正在进入两个巨大的新领域：碳排放和加密货币</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past, I have written about future opportunities with the government, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM). On today's earnings call, PLTR introduced significant information surrounding two new products they will be offering for carbon emissions and crypto.</p><p><blockquote>过去，我写过关于政府、亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）和国际商业机器公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IBM）未来机会的文章。在今天的财报看涨期权上，PLTR 介绍了有关他们将为碳排放和加密提供的两种新产品的重要信息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> There has been a fundamental shift in the USA over climate, and President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement to reengage in tackling climate change. Part ofthe planis to reach a net-zero emission economy-wide by 2050. Recently President Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. No matter what your stance on climate is, there are many who believe we need to lower emissions, and many nations are working on a goal. To comply, companies such as&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(NYSE:XOM)&nbsp;are conducting longer-term research on several promising innovations with outside organizations, including direct air capture technology to&nbsp;scrub emissions out of the air&nbsp;and carbonate fuel cells&nbsp;to capture industrial emissions&nbsp;from flue gas streams of power plants or manufacturing facilities. Carbon emissions management is already a booming business, and PLTR is creating a module on Foundry to present a single pane to view revenue, margin, production, and all emissions so companies can manage outcomes more efficiently. Personally, I believe this has enormous potential to drive revenue for PLTR in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国在气候问题上发生了根本性的转变，拜登总统重新加入了《巴黎协定》，重新参与应对气候变化。到2050年实现整个经济净零排放计划的一部分。最近，拜登总统在苏格兰格拉斯哥举行的联合国气候峰会上承诺，将与欧盟和其他数十个国家合作，到2030年将全球甲烷排放总量减少30%。无论你对气候的立场是什么，都有许多人认为我们需要降低排放，许多国家正在努力实现一个目标。为了遵守规定，埃克森美孚（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XOM）等公司正在与外部组织一起对几项有前途的创新进行长期研究，包括用于清除空气中排放物的直接空气捕获技术和用于捕获工业排放物的碳酸盐燃料电池来自发电厂或制造设施的烟气流。碳排放管理已经是一项蓬勃发展的业务，PLTR 正在 Foundry 上创建一个模块，以显示单个窗格来查看收入、利润率、产量和所有排放，以便公司可以更有效地管理结果。就我个人而言，我相信这对于推动 PLTR 未来的收入具有巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2386d938e7f452a340dbb130de508f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The second huge prospect that PLTR discussed was Foundry for crypto. It looks like PLTR is leveraging their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. PLTR has worked with several governments over the years to find compliance issues with the world's largest banks and help those banks respond and strengthen their compliance programs. This makes complete sense, and when you go back to the contracts, PLTR has been awarded from the IRS and SEC (discussed in previous articles). In Q3 alone, PLTR inked 6 contracts with the IRS. If I had to guess, PLTR's software would be utilized by the IRS and the SEC on the government side and adopted on the commercial side by banks and crypto exchanges. Currently, in the past 24 hours,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN)&nbsp;is showing that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has incurred a trading volume of $43.8 billion. I think PLTR will end up driving future revenue from both government and commercial contracts from its Foundry for Crypto.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR讨论的第二个巨大前景是加密铸造。看起来PLTR正在利用他们的反洗钱和了解客户的专业知识。多年来，PLTR 与多个政府合作，发现全球最大银行的合规问题，并帮助这些银行做出回应并加强其合规计划。这是完全有道理的，当你回到合同时，PLTR已经被美国国税局和美国证券交易委员会授予了（在以前的文章中讨论过）。仅在第三季度，PLTR 就与美国国税局签署了 6 份合同。如果让我猜的话，PLTR的软件会被政府方面的国税局和美国证券交易委员会使用，并被银行和加密货币交易所采用。目前，在过去24小时内，比特币基地（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）显示比特币（BTC-USD）的交易量为438亿美元。我认为 PLTR 最终将推动其加密货币代工厂的政府和商业合同的未来收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c762e27799c80dbaa9914bb98a6a10\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"234\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Database)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：联邦采购数据库）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005d57c6c5c926b35eac100fa35c7415\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> PLTR has become another statistic of the market misunderstanding its earnings and selling the news when the news was great. What more does anyone want PLTR to do? This was an excellent quarter with revenue increasing 36% YoY in Q3, FCF came in at $119 million with a 30% margin, and PLTR closed 54 deals worth more than $1 million each. PLTR beats revenue estimates, increases guidance for its full-year revenue than for the 2nd time, increases its FCF guidance. This was a sell the news on all positive factors, which is creating a buying opportunity. I am staying long on PLTR and plan to add to my position if the sell-off continues.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR已经成为市场误解其盈利并在消息大好时抛售消息的又一统计数据。还有人希望PLTR做什么？这是一个出色的季度，第三季度收入同比增长 36%，FCF 达到 1.19 亿美元，利润率为 30%，PLTR 完成了 54 笔交易，每笔交易价值超过 100 万美元。PLTR 超出收入预期，第二次上调全年收入指引，上调自由现金流指引。这是一个关于所有积极因素的卖出消息，这创造了一个买入机会。我将长期持有 PLTR，并计划如果抛售继续的话加仓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Seeking Alpha Marketplace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>寻求阿尔法市场</b></blockquote></p><p> I will be launching a subscription service called Barbell Capital on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Barbell Capital will provide exclusive research, model portfolios, investment tools, Q&amp;A sessions, watchlists, and additional features for its members. I will also have a live portfolio dedicated to generating capital from trading, selling puts and selling covered calls. The profits will be allocated to future capital appreciating investments and investing in dividend investments to generate income while we sleep.</p><p><blockquote>我将在Seeking Alpha市场上推出一项名为Barbell Capital的订阅服务。杠铃资本将为其成员提供独家研究、模型投资组合、投资工具、问答会议、观察列表和附加功能。我还将有一个实时投资组合，专门用于通过交易、出售看跌期权和出售备兑评级来产生资本。利润将被分配到未来的资本增值投资和股息投资中，以便在我们睡觉时产生收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468059-palantir-q3-beat-creating-an-opportunity\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468059-palantir-q3-beat-creating-an-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129543601","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating a 30% margin.\nPalantir's commercial revenue increased 37%, and government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3 showing strong forward growth trends.\nPalantir closed 54 deals in Q3 2021 with at least $1 million in contract value with 33 valued at $5+ million and 18 at $10+ million.\nPalantir increases guidance again and expects 40% revenue growth YoY at $1.527 billion and $400 million in FCF up from the previous guidance increase of $300 million.\n\nAndreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment\nSome investors love to hate Palantir (PLTR), which was nicknamed a black box company in the past, while others absolutely love it because they believe PLTR's software is the future. In my previous article on PLTR, I stated that based on PLTR's current revenue trend, they were setting up to deliver $399.41 million in revenue for Q3 and $423.22 million of revenue in Q4. The consensus number was $386.56 million of revenue in Q3, and PLTR delivered $392.1 million and forecasted $418 million in Q4 2021. The reaction in premarket as the earnings call was being conducted was nothing but a sea of red as PLTR sharply declined, and each time a gap tried to fill, the next leg on the downward spiral started. The news wasn't even digested, yet people decided to either take profits, exit their position or lost faith in PLTR.\nWhat wasn't there to like in the earnings release to cause the sell-off that has been hovering in the -9.03% range? PLTR delivered 36% YoY revenue growth, added 34 new customers in Q3, and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. PLTR increased their remaining deal value by 50% YoY to $3.6 billion and delivered $101 million in cash from operations (26% margin), and $199 million in free cash flow (30% margin). PLTR also increased guidance for 2021 as they now expect revenue growth of 40% YoY compared to their previous projection of 30% and increased their projection in FCF to $400 million from $300 million. In addition to the numbers, PLTR announced new product platforms and use cases that have tremendous potential to drive revenue and FCF in the future. I believe this sell-off will be short-lived and I am looking at it as a buying opportunity.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nPalantir's revenue continues to expand on both the commercial and government side\nQuarter after Quarter since PLTR went public, their commercial business has expanded. After five quarters of going public, PLTR's quarterly commercial revenue has increased by $62 million or 55.36%. In Q3 2021, PLTR delivered $174 million in revenue from its commercial operations, which accounted for 44.38% of its $392.1 million quarterly revenue. Over the previous two years, PLTR's Q3 revenue has increased by 85.11% as it grew by 35.11% in Q3 2020 YoY and by another 37.01% YoY in Q3 of 2021. PLTR's commercial remaining deal value increased by 101% YoY from $1.1 billion in Q3 2020 to $2.2 billion in Q3 2021. Commercial customers are inviting PLTR to present their software solutions, and PLTR is winning their business. In Q3 2021, PLTR added 34 net new customers increasing their commercial customer base by 20% QoQ to 203. Over the past year, PLTR has seen its commercial customer base expand by 46.04% as it has grown by 64 clients from 139 to 203. Anyone who still classifies PLTR as a black box is not being accurate as the commercial market is learning about PLTR's software platforms and implementing their solutions to improve their operations.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nSince Q1 of 2020, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue by $163.1 million (71.23%) at an average quarterly growth rate of 9.43% QoQ. In Q3 of 2021, this trend stayed intact as revenue increased by $16.1 million QoQ or 4.28%. While the quarterly revenue growth slowed a bit QoQ compared to 10.26% in Q2 2021, PLTR is projecting its Q4 2021 revenue will be $418 million. PLTR is expecting to deliver another company record and generate $25.9 million (6.61%) in QoQ growth to close out the year.\nThe same growth story applies to their total revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as well. Over the last six quarters, PLTR's TTM revenue has increased by $620.6 million (76.55%) from $810.6 million to $1.43 billion. On average, PLTR's TTM revenue growth has increased by $103.42 million (9.94%) QoQ. In Q1 2020 - Q3 2020, their average QoQ revenue growth was $94.03 million, and this has increased substantially as the past three quarters have all increased by at least $105 million QoQ. In Q3 2021, PLTR increased its TTM revenue to $1.43 billion as it added $106.8 million (8.06%) in QoQ revenue growth. Just like the quarterly metric, PLTR's TTM is expected to grow QoQ by an additional $95.9 million to $1.527 billion compared to $1.51 billion in the consensus estimate. This would place PLTR's annual revenue growth YoY well ahead of their 30% projection as they would finish 2021 having increased its revenue by $434.30 million (39.75%)\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nI am shocked PLTR is still in the red. PLTR is a high-growth company that is now FCF positive and expanding its metrics. In the first nine months of 2020, PLTR generated -$285 million in FCF, and at the end of the first nine months of 2021, PLTR has delivered a $605 million swing as it has produced $320 million in FCF YTD. PLTR previously increased their 2021 FCF guidance to $300, and they just increased it again to $400+ million. In the span of three months, PLTR increased its FCF projection by an additional 33.33%. In Q3, PLTR's FCF margin was 30%, and they are projecting $400+ million in FCF for 2021. At the very minimum, this would mean they will tack on an additional $80 million in FCF for 2021. If PLTR delivers $1.527 billion in revenue and $400 million in FCF, its 2021 FCF margin would be 26.2%. PLTR is still projecting 30% annual revenue growth YoY thru 2025, which would place their 2025 revenue at $4.36 billion based on their projection of $1.527 for 2021. At PLTR's current FCF margin, they would generate $1.14 billion in FCF in 2025. Considering PLTR's current trends, if they exceeded their projections and grew at 35% YoY, it would place their 2025 revenue at $5.07 billion. At their current FCF margin, they would then generate $1.33 billion in FCF in 2025.\n(Source: PLTR)\nPLTR is firing on all cylinders. YoY, their Q3 revenue grew by 36%, they raised guidance on their FCF for a 2nd time from $300 million to $400+ million and have increased their annual revenue growth guidance from 30% to roughly 40%. PLTR is still maintaining its future revenue outlook of 30% annually YoY and is creating some impressive margins. PLTR's commercial revenue grew YoY by 37%, and their government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3. PLTR closed at least 54 deals worth at least $1 million during Q3, and 33 of those were at least $5 million in revenue, and 18 were at least $10 million in revenue. PLTR's growth metrics are impressive, and I am expecting them to under promise and over deliver going forward.\nPalantir is entering two new sectors that are going to be huge, carbon emissions, and crypto\nIn the past, I have written about future opportunities with the government, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM). On today's earnings call, PLTR introduced significant information surrounding two new products they will be offering for carbon emissions and crypto.\nThere has been a fundamental shift in the USA over climate, and President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement to reengage in tackling climate change. Part ofthe planis to reach a net-zero emission economy-wide by 2050. Recently President Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. No matter what your stance on climate is, there are many who believe we need to lower emissions, and many nations are working on a goal. To comply, companies such as Exxon Mobil(NYSE:XOM) are conducting longer-term research on several promising innovations with outside organizations, including direct air capture technology to scrub emissions out of the air and carbonate fuel cells to capture industrial emissions from flue gas streams of power plants or manufacturing facilities. Carbon emissions management is already a booming business, and PLTR is creating a module on Foundry to present a single pane to view revenue, margin, production, and all emissions so companies can manage outcomes more efficiently. Personally, I believe this has enormous potential to drive revenue for PLTR in the future.\n(Source: Palantir)\nThe second huge prospect that PLTR discussed was Foundry for crypto. It looks like PLTR is leveraging their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. PLTR has worked with several governments over the years to find compliance issues with the world's largest banks and help those banks respond and strengthen their compliance programs. This makes complete sense, and when you go back to the contracts, PLTR has been awarded from the IRS and SEC (discussed in previous articles). In Q3 alone, PLTR inked 6 contracts with the IRS. If I had to guess, PLTR's software would be utilized by the IRS and the SEC on the government side and adopted on the commercial side by banks and crypto exchanges. Currently, in the past 24 hours,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN) is showing that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has incurred a trading volume of $43.8 billion. I think PLTR will end up driving future revenue from both government and commercial contracts from its Foundry for Crypto.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Database)\n(Source: Palantir)\nConclusion\nPLTR has become another statistic of the market misunderstanding its earnings and selling the news when the news was great. What more does anyone want PLTR to do? This was an excellent quarter with revenue increasing 36% YoY in Q3, FCF came in at $119 million with a 30% margin, and PLTR closed 54 deals worth more than $1 million each. PLTR beats revenue estimates, increases guidance for its full-year revenue than for the 2nd time, increases its FCF guidance. This was a sell the news on all positive factors, which is creating a buying opportunity. I am staying long on PLTR and plan to add to my position if the sell-off continues.\nSeeking Alpha Marketplace\nI will be launching a subscription service called Barbell Capital on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Barbell Capital will provide exclusive research, model portfolios, investment tools, Q&A sessions, watchlists, and additional features for its members. I will also have a live portfolio dedicated to generating capital from trading, selling puts and selling covered calls. The profits will be allocated to future capital appreciating investments and investing in dividend investments to generate income while we sleep.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879105341,"gmtCreate":1636686663788,"gmtModify":1636686683983,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879105341","repostId":"1174358718","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870442744,"gmtCreate":1636644083706,"gmtModify":1636644087835,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF(META)$</a>virtual profit?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF(META)$</a>virtual profit?","text":"$Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF(META)$virtual profit?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f932159874b2e01a32aa660443ff29b3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870442744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696367312,"gmtCreate":1640620260240,"gmtModify":1640620260395,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"=)","listText":"=)","text":"=)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696367312","repostId":"1191134006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606032990,"gmtCreate":1638800169954,"gmtModify":1638800170119,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606032990","repostId":"1107494736","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107494736","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638799191,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107494736?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 21:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock Is an Attractive Buy, Says KeyBanc. Price Target Set at $191.<blockquote>KeyBanc 表示，苹果股票很有吸引力。目标价定为 191 美元。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107494736","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the ","content":"<p>Apple&nbsp;shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the stock with a bullish outlook, citing growth in the tech giant’s services segment.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周一上涨，此前 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的分析师以这家科技巨头服务部门的增长为由，开始对该股进行看涨前景的报道。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst Brandon Nispel rated the stock Overweight with a $191 price target. The target presents an 18% increase from Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) $161.84 closing price on Friday. The stock was up 1.2% to $163.73 in premarket trading Monday.</p><p><blockquote>分析师 Brandon Nispel 将该股评级为跑赢大盘 191 美元，目标价为 191 美元。该目标比苹果（股票代码：AAPL）周五收盘价 161.84 美元上涨了 18%。周一盘前交易中，该股上涨 1.2%，至 163.73 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 42 analysts covering the stock surveyed by FactSet, 32 have it at a Buy or Overweight rating, nine rated it at Hold, and one rated it Underweight.</p><p><blockquote>在 FactSet 调查的 42 名分析师中，32 名分析师给予该股买入或跑赢大盘评级，9 名分析师给予持有评级，1 名分析师给予跑输大盘评级。</blockquote></p><p> “While AAPL is expensive by historical valuations, we find AAPL attractive relative to other mega-caps,” Nispel wrote on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“尼斯佩尔周一写道：”虽然按历史估值计算，AAPL 价格昂贵，但我们认为相对于其他大盘股，AAPL 很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst outlined three main reasons for his bullish take. Nispel doesn’t believe iPhone unit sales have peaked, with the 5G upgrade cycle potentially pushing Apple past its current peak; he believes the company has managed to increase its product breadth to reduce reliability on iPhone sales; and he foresees services to grow at rates multiple times faster than user growth.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师概述了他看涨的三个主要原因。尼斯佩尔认为 iPhone 的销量并未达到顶峰，5G 升级周期可能会推动苹果超越目前的峰值；他认为该公司已经设法增加了产品范围，以降低 iPhone 销售的可靠性；他预计服务的增长速度将比用户增长速度快数倍。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst forecasts Apple to have 1.09 billion active iPhones and 1.8 billion active installed devices by the end of the first quarter of the 2022 fiscal year. This presents a 7% and 8% year-over-year increase, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师预测，到 2022 财年第一季度末，苹果将拥有 10.9 亿部活跃 iPhone 和 18 亿部活跃安装设备。同比分别增长 7% 和 8%。</blockquote></p><p> “This shows a healthy growing user base where Apple iPhone market share is low relative to key geographies outside the United States,” Nispel wrote. “As the installed base grows, a larger base can support more sales on lower upgrade rates.”</p><p><blockquote>“尼斯佩尔写道：”这表明苹果 iPhone 的用户群正在健康增长，而与美国以外的主要地区相比，iPhone 的市场份额较低。“随着安装基数的增长，更大的基数可以以更低的升级率支持更多的销售”。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s international segment is likely to grow faster in the coming years as other countries adapt to 5G, prompting a wave of upgrades to compatible hardware, Nispel wrote. He estimates every 1% increase in 5G upgrade rates could drive an incremental 11 million iPhone unit sales.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔写道，随着其他国家适应 5G，苹果的国际业务在未来几年可能会增长得更快，从而引发兼容硬件的升级浪潮。他估计，5G升级率每提高1%，就能推动iPhone销量增加1100万部。</blockquote></p><p> As hardware adoption grows, so does Apple’s services business. The segment, which includes services such as Apple TV+, Music, News+, AppleCare, Advertising, and Cloud, has grown 27% in the 2021 fiscal year. Over time, it could become a key profitability driver, growing to more than $100 billion by 2024, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>随着硬件采用率的增长，苹果的服务业务也在增长。该部门包括苹果电视+、音乐、新闻+、AppleCare、广告和云等服务，在2021财年增长了27%。尼斯佩尔表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会成为一个关键的盈利驱动力，到 2024 年将增长到 1000 亿美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> Nispel recognized that Apple’s App Store legal battles were concerning, but were “likely more a bend, not break outcome.” The company has had to make modest changes to its App Store guidance in response to court rulings and regulatory changes, including lowering its commission for some developers. It will likely make more concessions over time, such as allowing developers to provide third-party payment options, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔承认，苹果与 App Store 的法律诉讼令人担忧，但 “更可能是一个转折点，而不是一个突破结果”。为了应对法院裁决和监管变化，该公司不得不对其 App Store 指南进行适度修改，包括降低一些开发者的佣金。尼斯佩尔表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会做出更多让步，例如允许开发商提供第三方支付选项。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect regulation to take time to implement, and believe Apple’s competitive advantage is unlikely to be substantially harmed,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“他补充说：”我们预计监管需要时间来实施，并相信苹果的竞争优势不太可能受到实质性损害。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Is an Attractive Buy, Says KeyBanc. Price Target Set at $191.<blockquote>KeyBanc 表示，苹果股票很有吸引力。目标价定为 191 美元。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Is an Attractive Buy, Says KeyBanc. Price Target Set at $191.<blockquote>KeyBanc 表示，苹果股票很有吸引力。目标价定为 191 美元。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-06 21:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple&nbsp;shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the stock with a bullish outlook, citing growth in the tech giant’s services segment.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周一上涨，此前 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的分析师以这家科技巨头服务部门的增长为由，开始对该股进行看涨前景的报道。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst Brandon Nispel rated the stock Overweight with a $191 price target. The target presents an 18% increase from Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) $161.84 closing price on Friday. The stock was up 1.2% to $163.73 in premarket trading Monday.</p><p><blockquote>分析师 Brandon Nispel 将该股评级为跑赢大盘 191 美元，目标价为 191 美元。该目标比苹果（股票代码：AAPL）周五收盘价 161.84 美元上涨了 18%。周一盘前交易中，该股上涨 1.2%，至 163.73 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 42 analysts covering the stock surveyed by FactSet, 32 have it at a Buy or Overweight rating, nine rated it at Hold, and one rated it Underweight.</p><p><blockquote>在 FactSet 调查的 42 名分析师中，32 名分析师给予该股买入或跑赢大盘评级，9 名分析师给予持有评级，1 名分析师给予跑输大盘评级。</blockquote></p><p> “While AAPL is expensive by historical valuations, we find AAPL attractive relative to other mega-caps,” Nispel wrote on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“尼斯佩尔周一写道：”虽然按历史估值计算，AAPL 价格昂贵，但我们认为相对于其他大盘股，AAPL 很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst outlined three main reasons for his bullish take. Nispel doesn’t believe iPhone unit sales have peaked, with the 5G upgrade cycle potentially pushing Apple past its current peak; he believes the company has managed to increase its product breadth to reduce reliability on iPhone sales; and he foresees services to grow at rates multiple times faster than user growth.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师概述了他看涨的三个主要原因。尼斯佩尔认为 iPhone 的销量并未达到顶峰，5G 升级周期可能会推动苹果超越目前的峰值；他认为该公司已经设法增加了产品范围，以降低 iPhone 销售的可靠性；他预计服务的增长速度将比用户增长速度快数倍。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst forecasts Apple to have 1.09 billion active iPhones and 1.8 billion active installed devices by the end of the first quarter of the 2022 fiscal year. This presents a 7% and 8% year-over-year increase, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师预测，到 2022 财年第一季度末，苹果将拥有 10.9 亿部活跃 iPhone 和 18 亿部活跃安装设备。同比分别增长 7% 和 8%。</blockquote></p><p> “This shows a healthy growing user base where Apple iPhone market share is low relative to key geographies outside the United States,” Nispel wrote. “As the installed base grows, a larger base can support more sales on lower upgrade rates.”</p><p><blockquote>“尼斯佩尔写道：”这表明苹果 iPhone 的用户群正在健康增长，而与美国以外的主要地区相比，iPhone 的市场份额较低。“随着安装基数的增长，更大的基数可以以更低的升级率支持更多的销售”。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s international segment is likely to grow faster in the coming years as other countries adapt to 5G, prompting a wave of upgrades to compatible hardware, Nispel wrote. He estimates every 1% increase in 5G upgrade rates could drive an incremental 11 million iPhone unit sales.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔写道，随着其他国家适应 5G，苹果的国际业务在未来几年可能会增长得更快，从而引发兼容硬件的升级浪潮。他估计，5G升级率每提高1%，就能推动iPhone销量增加1100万部。</blockquote></p><p> As hardware adoption grows, so does Apple’s services business. The segment, which includes services such as Apple TV+, Music, News+, AppleCare, Advertising, and Cloud, has grown 27% in the 2021 fiscal year. Over time, it could become a key profitability driver, growing to more than $100 billion by 2024, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>随着硬件采用率的增长，苹果的服务业务也在增长。该部门包括苹果电视+、音乐、新闻+、AppleCare、广告和云等服务，在2021财年增长了27%。尼斯佩尔表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会成为一个关键的盈利驱动力，到 2024 年将增长到 1000 亿美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> Nispel recognized that Apple’s App Store legal battles were concerning, but were “likely more a bend, not break outcome.” The company has had to make modest changes to its App Store guidance in response to court rulings and regulatory changes, including lowering its commission for some developers. It will likely make more concessions over time, such as allowing developers to provide third-party payment options, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔承认，苹果与 App Store 的法律诉讼令人担忧，但 “更可能是一个转折点，而不是一个突破结果”。为了应对法院裁决和监管变化，该公司不得不对其 App Store 指南进行适度修改，包括降低一些开发者的佣金。尼斯佩尔表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会做出更多让步，例如允许开发商提供第三方支付选项。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect regulation to take time to implement, and believe Apple’s competitive advantage is unlikely to be substantially harmed,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“他补充说：”我们预计监管需要时间来实施，并相信苹果的竞争优势不太可能受到实质性损害。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-aapl-stock-attractive-buy-51638798446?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-aapl-stock-attractive-buy-51638798446?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107494736","content_text":"Apple shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the stock with a bullish outlook, citing growth in the tech giant’s services segment.\nAnalyst Brandon Nispel rated the stock Overweight with a $191 price target. The target presents an 18% increase from Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) $161.84 closing price on Friday. The stock was up 1.2% to $163.73 in premarket trading Monday.\nOf the 42 analysts covering the stock surveyed by FactSet, 32 have it at a Buy or Overweight rating, nine rated it at Hold, and one rated it Underweight.\n“While AAPL is expensive by historical valuations, we find AAPL attractive relative to other mega-caps,” Nispel wrote on Monday.\nThe analyst outlined three main reasons for his bullish take. Nispel doesn’t believe iPhone unit sales have peaked, with the 5G upgrade cycle potentially pushing Apple past its current peak; he believes the company has managed to increase its product breadth to reduce reliability on iPhone sales; and he foresees services to grow at rates multiple times faster than user growth.\nThe analyst forecasts Apple to have 1.09 billion active iPhones and 1.8 billion active installed devices by the end of the first quarter of the 2022 fiscal year. This presents a 7% and 8% year-over-year increase, respectively.\n“This shows a healthy growing user base where Apple iPhone market share is low relative to key geographies outside the United States,” Nispel wrote. “As the installed base grows, a larger base can support more sales on lower upgrade rates.”\nApple’s international segment is likely to grow faster in the coming years as other countries adapt to 5G, prompting a wave of upgrades to compatible hardware, Nispel wrote. He estimates every 1% increase in 5G upgrade rates could drive an incremental 11 million iPhone unit sales.\nAs hardware adoption grows, so does Apple’s services business. The segment, which includes services such as Apple TV+, Music, News+, AppleCare, Advertising, and Cloud, has grown 27% in the 2021 fiscal year. Over time, it could become a key profitability driver, growing to more than $100 billion by 2024, Nispel said.\nNispel recognized that Apple’s App Store legal battles were concerning, but were “likely more a bend, not break outcome.” The company has had to make modest changes to its App Store guidance in response to court rulings and regulatory changes, including lowering its commission for some developers. It will likely make more concessions over time, such as allowing developers to provide third-party payment options, Nispel said.\n“We expect regulation to take time to implement, and believe Apple’s competitive advantage is unlikely to be substantially harmed,” he added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876894415,"gmtCreate":1637288651885,"gmtModify":1637288651885,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Similar to GRAB?","listText":"Similar to GRAB?","text":"Similar to GRAB?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876894415","repostId":"2184189467","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639714982,"gmtCreate":1643448118357,"gmtModify":1643448118499,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639714982","repostId":"1157223555","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157223555","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1643443466,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1157223555?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-29 16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157223555","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve wi","content":"<p><div> Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.Economists led by Jan ...</p><p><blockquote><div>高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的经济学家与华尔街同行一起预测，美联储将比此前预期更积极地加息。以Jan为首的经济学家……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-29 16:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.Economists led by Jan ...</p><p><blockquote><div>高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的经济学家与华尔街同行一起预测，美联储将比此前预期更积极地加息。以Jan为首的经济学家……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157223555","content_text":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693082951,"gmtCreate":1639929026745,"gmtModify":1639929026845,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693082951","repostId":"2192035909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609845468,"gmtCreate":1638270683785,"gmtModify":1638270683853,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609845468","repostId":"1147381319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147381319","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638263486,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1147381319?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 17:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading<blockquote>部分电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147381319","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading.Canoo,Rivian,Fisker,Lucid,Li Auto,Tesla and NIO fell betw","content":"<p>Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading.Canoo,Rivian,Fisker,Lucid,Li Auto,Tesla&nbsp;and&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 2% and 3%.</p><p><blockquote>一些电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌。Canoo、Rivian、Fisker、Lucid、理想汽车、特斯拉和蔚来下跌2%至3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670da5061daa286e0cb1f79d91c7f025\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading<blockquote>部分电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome EV stocks dipped in premarket trading<blockquote>部分电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-30 17:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading.Canoo,Rivian,Fisker,Lucid,Li Auto,Tesla&nbsp;and&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 2% and 3%.</p><p><blockquote>一些电动汽车股票在盘前交易中下跌。Canoo、Rivian、Fisker、Lucid、理想汽车、特斯拉和蔚来下跌2%至3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670da5061daa286e0cb1f79d91c7f025\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","FSR":"菲斯克","XPEV":"小鹏集团","NIO":"蔚来","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车","SEV":"Aptera Motors"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147381319","content_text":"Some EV stocks dipped in premarket trading.Canoo,Rivian,Fisker,Lucid,Li Auto,Tesla and NIO fell between 2% and 3%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"SEV":0.9,"LI":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"LCID":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"FSR":0.9,"GOEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1044,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692129051,"gmtCreate":1640877659766,"gmtModify":1640877659898,"author":{"id":"3573518300822142","authorId":"3573518300822142","name":"daryllee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573518300822142","authorIdStr":"3573518300822142"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I see","listText":"I see","text":"I see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692129051","repostId":"1106092668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106092668","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640876653,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1106092668?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106092668","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Unde","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited 股价早盘上涨超过 4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解近期抛售情况</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited 是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售情况并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为 Sea 是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对 Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）各部门的部分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长驱动力可能会带来惊喜，并在未来几年带来非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我 2022 年的十大精选股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为以一篇关于海洋的文章来结束这一年会很好。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不猜测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了我的Sea股票。这是我为数不多的亏损头寸之一，我没有为了税收损失而暂时卖出，在这篇文章中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此高的信念。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>同样值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea 是全球第 121 大公司，但在对冲基金中却是第 16 大最受欢迎的持股。这意味着，大钱是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份由机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于 Sea 在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在未来几年内推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited 的游戏部门 Garena 以内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有Android游戏中拥有第二多的月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内发售，但在东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、部落冲突和Pokemon Go——但还有更多的游戏被遗忘了。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也能成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个一鸣惊人的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena 是 Sea 的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是一个为 Sea 非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea 最近抛售的原因之一可能是 Garena 暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：盈利看涨期权演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena 将 2021 年预订指引上调至 $4.5B-$4.7B（从 $4.3B-$4.5B）。前三个季度的预订总额已经达到$3.5B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0B-$1.2B，同比增长0%至20%，并可能随后下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为 29%，全年的预计增长率为 44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然 20% 并不是可怕的减速，但 0% 肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是 20% 的增长也并不引人注目。在 10% 的中点，Garena 的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或 Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是 Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena 的隐含估值应该——而且确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena 的利润比他们略高，上行风险可能更大，因此我将使用 5 倍的市盈率作为我的隐含估值。这意味着对于一个以10%左右的速度增长的企业来说，市盈率约为10，这在当今的市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层的高端指导，Garena 的价值为 $23.5B。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我认为这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，未来几年甚至明年的增长可能会再次加速，特别是如果Garena发布了一款新的热门游戏。下一季度的增长率并非基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自过去一年也处于估值范围低端的公司。</li><li>Garena有着良好的业绩记录，并继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至增加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，名为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着 Garena 认为 Free Fire 仍处于生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了 Free Fire 之外，Garena 还分发腾讯控股 (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY) 等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命召唤看涨期权》这样的热门游戏，有意义地分散了Garena的收入。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 的电子商务平台 Shopee 目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN），最近它扩展到了包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁才是一个地区的真正亚马逊，总有一些争论。Shopee 当然面临着竞争对手，包括阿里巴巴 (NYSE:BABA) 的 Lazada、印度尼西亚的 Tokopedia、巴西的 MercadoLibre (MELI)，甚至亚马逊本身。由于大多数竞争都是私营的或隐藏在一家更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。即使是Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常注重移动端，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store App排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动方面，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个列出的国家排名第一的购物应用程序。在移动优先的世界里，这是一个非常好的兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee 也获胜，除了在拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，它是一个不错的代理。第三方估计，Shopee 占东南亚所有电子商务的 57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额上的主导地位，让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家拥有如此巨大潜力的公司会被抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师表示担心，Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前，正在向波兰和墨西哥等其他国家拓展业务。在这些国家，Shopee的存在较少；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5名之间，在波兰的1-3名之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官评论说他们没有衡量这些早期国家成功的具体措施也无济于事——但 Shopee 有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试扩张更多。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子大小（平均购买大小）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子大小缩小，但整体销售额却大幅增长，这很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前指引 2021 年电子商务收入为 $5.0B-$5.2B。第四季度增长了 75%-100%，全年增长了约 135%。这些数字比游戏方面令人兴奋得多，尽管指导仍然暗示第四季度会略有放缓。但与亚马逊 2020 年 3400 亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee 看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济的增长速度普遍快于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但电子商务部门更难估值，因为它亏损运营（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee 的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低的周期性更强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管无利可图，Sea的40法则104分优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行亚马逊（21）、MercadoLibre（73）和阿里巴巴-SW（43）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为 4 倍。AWS 推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高曝光率抵消了这一数字。其他电子商务市场同行的估值也类似：阿里巴巴-SW市盈率为 3 倍，MercadoLibre 市盈率为 9 倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史最低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果 Shopee 在未来几年内保持收入翻番（自 2016 年以来，它每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率，那么今天的市盈率为 16 倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等更长的时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整体行业倍数扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为 16 倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或从未盈利，那么投资者会对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于如此广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到 Shopee 在移动领域的主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自 Garena 的资金，以及亚马逊、阿里巴巴-SW和 MercadoLibre 为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功开创的先例时，我对这一细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到目前这是一个无利可图且风险较高的领域，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很乐意支付 16 倍市盈率，这意味着电子商务部门的估值为 83.2B 美元。有些人会把看涨期权定得太高，这些人可能永远不会有机会投资这家公司，不管是好是坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅 Garena 和 Shopee，我的 Sea 价值为 106.7B 美元。其目前的市值为 123.1B 美元。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>对我计算的估值来说，最简单的补充是 Sea 的 120 亿美元现金堆，部分被 40 亿美元债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管在Shopee上亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B的现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7B，仅比实际估值少$8.4B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是 Sea 的金融科技部门 SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，它在上一季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年内约20亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为 1.32 亿美元，同比增长 818%。这意味着2.9%的“接受率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于如此高的接受率，我并不担心 SeaMoney 在扩展过程中会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 SeaMoney 是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以计入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这仅仅是个开始。五年前，没有人会想到一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天会比游戏部门更有价值。但 Sea 的管理层，加上 Garena 资助新细分市场并推动其病毒式采用的能力，使得这一目标得以实现。当然不能保证Sea会在金融科技方面取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值是Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率有点高16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于 Visa、万事达卡 (NYSE:MA) 和 Affirm (NASDAQ:AFRM)。实际上，一个同比增长 818% 的细分市场可能会获得比这些增长较慢的公司更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测公平的市盈率是多少，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用 16 倍市盈率来达到 Sea 目前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一种方式是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea 在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务领域采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea 正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是 Sea 投资者）和 Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这有着良好的先例。目前Sea的投资部门还处于非常早期的阶段，所以我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但这并不一定要被考虑在内来证明当前的股价是合理的。这只是有一天可能值得一大片海洋的又一个区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>查看 Sea 的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明 Sea 目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到较新细分市场的显著可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的很大一部分。随着金融科技领域目前的年增长率为818%，不需要太多的想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，金融科技领域就会让投资者无法忽视。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择结合了每项业务的整体实力，使得 Sea 在过去一年的平均收入增长了 7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将是我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数不盈利的公司一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但是，即使你把电子商务一路降到5倍市盈率（这是今天增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司看到的倍数），这也意味着比今天的价格下降了54%。这肯定是一个急剧下降，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会面临这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像 Sea 这样的快速增长的公司才能通过收入增长快速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业几乎不会以最保守的估值进行交易。海洋当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我可以看到这些公司在本十年内市值达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-30 23:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited 股价早盘上涨超过 4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解近期抛售情况</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited 是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售情况并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为 Sea 是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对 Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）各部门的部分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长驱动力可能会带来惊喜，并在未来几年带来非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我 2022 年的十大精选股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为以一篇关于海洋的文章来结束这一年会很好。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不猜测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了我的Sea股票。这是我为数不多的亏损头寸之一，我没有为了税收损失而暂时卖出，在这篇文章中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此高的信念。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>同样值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea 是全球第 121 大公司，但在对冲基金中却是第 16 大最受欢迎的持股。这意味着，大钱是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份由机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于 Sea 在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在未来几年内推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited 的游戏部门 Garena 以内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有Android游戏中拥有第二多的月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内发售，但在东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、部落冲突和Pokemon Go——但还有更多的游戏被遗忘了。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也能成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个一鸣惊人的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena 是 Sea 的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是一个为 Sea 非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea 最近抛售的原因之一可能是 Garena 暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：盈利看涨期权演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena 将 2021 年预订指引上调至 $4.5B-$4.7B（从 $4.3B-$4.5B）。前三个季度的预订总额已经达到$3.5B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0B-$1.2B，同比增长0%至20%，并可能随后下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为 29%，全年的预计增长率为 44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然 20% 并不是可怕的减速，但 0% 肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是 20% 的增长也并不引人注目。在 10% 的中点，Garena 的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或 Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是 Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena 的隐含估值应该——而且确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena 的利润比他们略高，上行风险可能更大，因此我将使用 5 倍的市盈率作为我的隐含估值。这意味着对于一个以10%左右的速度增长的企业来说，市盈率约为10，这在当今的市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层的高端指导，Garena 的价值为 $23.5B。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我认为这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，未来几年甚至明年的增长可能会再次加速，特别是如果Garena发布了一款新的热门游戏。下一季度的增长率并非基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自过去一年也处于估值范围低端的公司。</li><li>Garena有着良好的业绩记录，并继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至增加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，名为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着 Garena 认为 Free Fire 仍处于生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了 Free Fire 之外，Garena 还分发腾讯控股 (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY) 等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命召唤看涨期权》这样的热门游戏，有意义地分散了Garena的收入。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea 的电子商务平台 Shopee 目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN），最近它扩展到了包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁才是一个地区的真正亚马逊，总有一些争论。Shopee 当然面临着竞争对手，包括阿里巴巴 (NYSE:BABA) 的 Lazada、印度尼西亚的 Tokopedia、巴西的 MercadoLibre (MELI)，甚至亚马逊本身。由于大多数竞争都是私营的或隐藏在一家更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。即使是Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常注重移动端，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store App排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动方面，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个列出的国家排名第一的购物应用程序。在移动优先的世界里，这是一个非常好的兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee 也获胜，除了在拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，它是一个不错的代理。第三方估计，Shopee 占东南亚所有电子商务的 57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额上的主导地位，让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家拥有如此巨大潜力的公司会被抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师表示担心，Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前，正在向波兰和墨西哥等其他国家拓展业务。在这些国家，Shopee的存在较少；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5名之间，在波兰的1-3名之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官评论说他们没有衡量这些早期国家成功的具体措施也无济于事——但 Shopee 有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试扩张更多。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子大小（平均购买大小）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子大小缩小，但整体销售额却大幅增长，这很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前指引 2021 年电子商务收入为 $5.0B-$5.2B。第四季度增长了 75%-100%，全年增长了约 135%。这些数字比游戏方面令人兴奋得多，尽管指导仍然暗示第四季度会略有放缓。但与亚马逊 2020 年 3400 亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee 看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济的增长速度普遍快于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但电子商务部门更难估值，因为它亏损运营（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee 的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低的周期性更强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管无利可图，Sea的40法则104分优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行亚马逊（21）、MercadoLibre（73）和阿里巴巴-SW（43）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为 4 倍。AWS 推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高曝光率抵消了这一数字。其他电子商务市场同行的估值也类似：阿里巴巴-SW市盈率为 3 倍，MercadoLibre 市盈率为 9 倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史最低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果 Shopee 在未来几年内保持收入翻番（自 2016 年以来，它每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率，那么今天的市盈率为 16 倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等更长的时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整体行业倍数扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为 16 倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或从未盈利，那么投资者会对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于如此广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到 Shopee 在移动领域的主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自 Garena 的资金，以及亚马逊、阿里巴巴-SW和 MercadoLibre 为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功开创的先例时，我对这一细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到目前这是一个无利可图且风险较高的领域，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很乐意支付 16 倍市盈率，这意味着电子商务部门的估值为 83.2B 美元。有些人会把看涨期权定得太高，这些人可能永远不会有机会投资这家公司，不管是好是坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅 Garena 和 Shopee，我的 Sea 价值为 106.7B 美元。其目前的市值为 123.1B 美元。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>对我计算的估值来说，最简单的补充是 Sea 的 120 亿美元现金堆，部分被 40 亿美元债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管在Shopee上亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B的现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7B，仅比实际估值少$8.4B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是 Sea 的金融科技部门 SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，它在上一季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年内约20亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为 1.32 亿美元，同比增长 818%。这意味着2.9%的“接受率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于如此高的接受率，我并不担心 SeaMoney 在扩展过程中会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 SeaMoney 是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以计入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这仅仅是个开始。五年前，没有人会想到一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天会比游戏部门更有价值。但 Sea 的管理层，加上 Garena 资助新细分市场并推动其病毒式采用的能力，使得这一目标得以实现。当然不能保证Sea会在金融科技方面取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值是Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率有点高16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于 Visa、万事达卡 (NYSE:MA) 和 Affirm (NASDAQ:AFRM)。实际上，一个同比增长 818% 的细分市场可能会获得比这些增长较慢的公司更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测公平的市盈率是多少，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用 16 倍市盈率来达到 Sea 目前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一种方式是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea 在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务领域采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea 正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是 Sea 投资者）和 Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这有着良好的先例。目前Sea的投资部门还处于非常早期的阶段，所以我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但这并不一定要被考虑在内来证明当前的股价是合理的。这只是有一天可能值得一大片海洋的又一个区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>查看 Sea 的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明 Sea 目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到较新细分市场的显著可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的很大一部分。随着金融科技领域目前的年增长率为818%，不需要太多的想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，金融科技领域就会让投资者无法忽视。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择结合了每项业务的整体实力，使得 Sea 在过去一年的平均收入增长了 7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将是我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数不盈利的公司一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但是，即使你把电子商务一路降到5倍市盈率（这是今天增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司看到的倍数），这也意味着比今天的价格下降了54%。这肯定是一个急剧下降，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会面临这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像 Sea 这样的快速增长的公司才能通过收入增长快速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业几乎不会以最保守的估值进行交易。海洋当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我可以看到这些公司在本十年内市值达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106092668","content_text":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent SelloffSummarySea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesThesisA by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.IntroductionI recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.GamingSea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.Source: Earnings Call PresentationIn Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.E-CommerceSea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.Source: The Author, compiled from AlexaShopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnieOn the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.So why would a company with so much potential sell off?After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.FinTech & InvestmentsThe easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.ConclusionLooking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}