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2021-06-29

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2021-06-29

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2021-06-29

$Educational Development(EDUC)$Average down?

2021-06-29

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2021-06-28

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2021-06-28

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2021-06-28

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2021-06-28

$Alibaba(BABA)$Buy more

2021-06-27

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2021-06-27

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Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>

2021-06-26

$Educational Development(EDUC)$What’s happening

2021-06-25

$Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS(TKC)$Goodbuy

2021-06-25

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2021-06-24

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2021-06-24

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2021-06-24

$Educational Development(EDUC)$What to do

2021-06-23

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2021-06-23

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2021-06-23

$Educational Development(EDUC)$Recovering

2021-06-22

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Analysis: Investors focus on central bank speakers after extreme market moves<blockquote>分析：市场极端走势后投资者关注央行发言人</blockquote>

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warren","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c23d698f78e2e70407ed94f8ce4d5de7","width":"1125","height":"3387"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124841777","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1961,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124840206,"gmtCreate":1624759789705,"gmtModify":1631891140057,"author":{"id":"3573634322541563","authorId":"3573634322541563","name":"Zfron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ecdc2067440ea2fe4b2c600ae46f73","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573634322541563","authorIdStr":"3573634322541563"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124840206","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销量是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销量是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. 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pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129030628","repostId":"1160989283","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160989283","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624339657,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160989283?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 13:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Analysis: Investors focus on central bank speakers after extreme market moves<blockquote>分析：市场极端走势后投资者关注央行发言人</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160989283","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - With all eyes on the U.S. central bank this week, some investors are looking to","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - With all eyes on the U.S. central bank this week, some investors are looking to a parade of Federal Reserve speakers to calm market volatility, saying the reaction to the Fed's June meeting was too extreme.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约6月11日电——本周所有人的目光都集中在美联储，一些投资者期待美联储发言人的游行来平息市场波动，称对美联储6月会议的反应过于极端。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed last week signaled a potentially tougher stance on inflation and shifted projections for its first two rate hikes into 2023, sparking a selloff in U.S. stocks, boosting the dollar and flattening the Treasury yield curve in its fastest re-shaping since March 2020, according to Citi analysts.</p><p><blockquote>据花旗分析师称，美联储上周暗示可能对通胀采取更强硬的立场，并将前两次加息的预测推迟到2023年，引发美股抛售，提振美元，并使美国国债收益率曲线走平，这是自2020年3月以来最快的重塑。</blockquote></p><p> However, those moves partially reversed on Monday as stocks rebounded and the dollar retreated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着股市反弹和美元回落，这些走势在周一部分逆转。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are now anticipating what message will come from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, due to speak before Congress on Tuesday at 2 pm ET (1800 GMT), as well as several other key Fed officials making appearances throughout the week. Data is also due on housing and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.</p><p><blockquote>投资者现在正在期待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)将于美国东部时间周二下午2点（格林威治标准时间1800）在国会发表讲话，以及其他几位美联储主要官员将在本周露面。房地产数据和美联储首选的通胀指标也将公布。</blockquote></p><p> \"I expect Powell will try to reverse some of the damage last week's Fed meeting did,\" said Tom Graff, head of fixed income at Brown Advisory. \"I don't think they intended to communicate such a hawkish message.\"</p><p><blockquote>Brown Advisory固定收益主管Tom Graff表示：“我预计鲍威尔将试图扭转上周美联储会议造成的一些损害。”“我不认为他们有意传达如此鹰派的信息。”</blockquote></p><p> Graff pointed to the yield curve on Monday \"steepening a little which might show the market is expecting a little reversal.\"</p><p><blockquote>格拉夫指出，周一收益率曲线“略有陡峭，这可能表明市场预计会出现小幅逆转。”</blockquote></p><p> In prepared remarks from Powell released by the Fed late Monday afternoon ahead of the his congressional hearing, the Fed chairman said he regards the current jump in inflation, in fact, as likely to fade.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周一下午晚些时候在国会听证会之前发布了鲍威尔准备好的讲话，这位美联储主席表示，他认为当前的通胀飙升实际上可能会消退。</blockquote></p><p> \"I think that this is just a continuation of what they said last week that things are improving, things are getting better but we're not there yet, and I think that's what this speaks to,\" said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut.</p><p><blockquote>高级投资组合经理罗伯特·帕夫利克(Robert Pavlik)表示：“我认为这只是他们上周所说的情况正在改善，情况正在变得更好，但我们还没有到那一步，我认为这就是问题所在。”康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德的达科他财富公司经理。</blockquote></p><p> REFLATION TRADE IN DANGER?</p><p><blockquote>通货再膨胀贸易面临危险？</blockquote></p><p> At stake is the market's view on whether the Fed has grown hawkish enough to endanger the so-called reflation trade, a bet on a powerful U.S. growth revival that has over the last several months helped boost prices for shares of economically sensitive companies, while weighing on the dollar and lifting yields. Some of those trades unwound last week.</p><p><blockquote>利害攸关的是市场对美联储是否变得足够鹰派以危及所谓的通货再膨胀交易的看法。通货再膨胀交易是对美国经济增长强劲复苏的押注，过去几个月帮助提振了对经济敏感的公司的股价，同时打压美元并提高收益率。其中一些交易上周平仓。</blockquote></p><p> \"We saw big drama playing out in some of the reflation trades,\" said Thanos Bardas, co-head of global investment-grade fixed income at Neuberger Berman.</p><p><blockquote>路博迈(Neuberger Berman)全球投资级固定收益联席主管萨诺斯·巴尔达斯(Thanos Bardas)表示：“我们看到一些通货再膨胀交易中上演了大戏。”</blockquote></p><p> \"The market over-reaction was pretty evident,\" he said, adding that he expects cooler heads to prevail this week.</p><p><blockquote>“市场的过度反应非常明显，”他说，并补充说，他预计本周将出现冷静的头脑。</blockquote></p><p> Others also saw a reversal of some of those positions likely. Analysts at TD Securities said the yield curve flattening had been \"extreme.\"</p><p><blockquote>其他人也认为其中一些头寸可能会逆转。道明证券分析师表示，收益率曲线趋平已经“极端”。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve flattens when shorter-dated rates, which are more sensitive to interest-rate policy, move faster than longer-dated rates, indicating investors believe monetary policy could tighten before the economy has fully recovered from the coronavirus recession.</p><p><blockquote>当对利率政策更敏感的短期利率比长期利率变动更快时，收益率曲线就会变平，这表明投资者认为货币政策可能会在经济从冠状病毒衰退中完全复苏之前收紧。</blockquote></p><p> \"This past week showed crowded investor positioning for a steepening curve can cause the boat to flip over as flattening can occur quickly on any disinflationary developments,\" said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist, John Hancock Investment Management.</p><p><blockquote>约翰·汉考克投资管理公司联席首席投资策略师马特·米斯金表示：“过去一周表明，拥挤的投资者对陡峭曲线的定位可能会导致船倾覆，因为任何通货紧缩的发展都可能很快出现平坦化。”</blockquote></p><p> The Cboe Volatility Index, an options based measure of expectations for stock market gyrations, fell on Monday after touching a 4-week high earlier in the session. Meanwhile, the Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility Index was at a two-week high, while the MOVE index, a bond market volatility gauge was at a two-month high.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数是一种基于期权的股市波动预期指标，在盘中早些时候触及4周高点后，周一下跌。与此同时，德意志银行货币波动率指数处于两周高点，而衡量债券市场波动率的MOVE指数则处于两个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> The parade of Fed speakers began on Monday morning, with two regional officials saying that a faster withdrawal from the central bank's bond purchase program could give it more leeway in deciding when to raise interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储发言人的游行从周一早上开始，两名地区官员表示，更快地退出央行的债券购买计划可能会让其在决定何时加息时有更多回旋余地。</blockquote></p><p> Other speakers this week include Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester, who leans hawkish. [FED/DIARY]</p><p><blockquote>本周的其他发言人包括克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长洛雷塔·梅斯特，她倾向于鹰派。[进食/日记]</blockquote></p><p> Some investors were looking at the week as an opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者将本周视为一个机会。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are telling folks if you have a 12-month outlook that we would be looking at this pullback as an opportunity to enter the value trade,\" said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services in Atlanta, adding: \"It is a big week.\"</p><p><blockquote>亚特兰大Truist Advisory Services首席市场策略师基思·勒纳(Keith Lerner)表示：“我们告诉人们，如果你有12个月的前景，我们会将这次回调视为进入价值交易的机会。”这是重要的一周。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Analysis: Investors focus on central bank speakers after extreme market moves<blockquote>分析：市场极端走势后投资者关注央行发言人</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnalysis: Investors focus on central bank speakers after extreme market moves<blockquote>分析：市场极端走势后投资者关注央行发言人</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 13:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - With all eyes on the U.S. central bank this week, some investors are looking to a parade of Federal Reserve speakers to calm market volatility, saying the reaction to the Fed's June meeting was too extreme.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约6月11日电——本周所有人的目光都集中在美联储，一些投资者期待美联储发言人的游行来平息市场波动，称对美联储6月会议的反应过于极端。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed last week signaled a potentially tougher stance on inflation and shifted projections for its first two rate hikes into 2023, sparking a selloff in U.S. stocks, boosting the dollar and flattening the Treasury yield curve in its fastest re-shaping since March 2020, according to Citi analysts.</p><p><blockquote>据花旗分析师称，美联储上周暗示可能对通胀采取更强硬的立场，并将前两次加息的预测推迟到2023年，引发美股抛售，提振美元，并使美国国债收益率曲线走平，这是自2020年3月以来最快的重塑。</blockquote></p><p> However, those moves partially reversed on Monday as stocks rebounded and the dollar retreated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着股市反弹和美元回落，这些走势在周一部分逆转。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are now anticipating what message will come from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, due to speak before Congress on Tuesday at 2 pm ET (1800 GMT), as well as several other key Fed officials making appearances throughout the week. Data is also due on housing and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.</p><p><blockquote>投资者现在正在期待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)将于美国东部时间周二下午2点（格林威治标准时间1800）在国会发表讲话，以及其他几位美联储主要官员将在本周露面。房地产数据和美联储首选的通胀指标也将公布。</blockquote></p><p> \"I expect Powell will try to reverse some of the damage last week's Fed meeting did,\" said Tom Graff, head of fixed income at Brown Advisory. \"I don't think they intended to communicate such a hawkish message.\"</p><p><blockquote>Brown Advisory固定收益主管Tom Graff表示：“我预计鲍威尔将试图扭转上周美联储会议造成的一些损害。”“我不认为他们有意传达如此鹰派的信息。”</blockquote></p><p> Graff pointed to the yield curve on Monday \"steepening a little which might show the market is expecting a little reversal.\"</p><p><blockquote>格拉夫指出，周一收益率曲线“略有陡峭，这可能表明市场预计会出现小幅逆转。”</blockquote></p><p> In prepared remarks from Powell released by the Fed late Monday afternoon ahead of the his congressional hearing, the Fed chairman said he regards the current jump in inflation, in fact, as likely to fade.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周一下午晚些时候在国会听证会之前发布了鲍威尔准备好的讲话，这位美联储主席表示，他认为当前的通胀飙升实际上可能会消退。</blockquote></p><p> \"I think that this is just a continuation of what they said last week that things are improving, things are getting better but we're not there yet, and I think that's what this speaks to,\" said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut.</p><p><blockquote>高级投资组合经理罗伯特·帕夫利克(Robert Pavlik)表示：“我认为这只是他们上周所说的情况正在改善，情况正在变得更好，但我们还没有到那一步，我认为这就是问题所在。”康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德的达科他财富公司经理。</blockquote></p><p> REFLATION TRADE IN DANGER?</p><p><blockquote>通货再膨胀贸易面临危险？</blockquote></p><p> At stake is the market's view on whether the Fed has grown hawkish enough to endanger the so-called reflation trade, a bet on a powerful U.S. growth revival that has over the last several months helped boost prices for shares of economically sensitive companies, while weighing on the dollar and lifting yields. Some of those trades unwound last week.</p><p><blockquote>利害攸关的是市场对美联储是否变得足够鹰派以危及所谓的通货再膨胀交易的看法。通货再膨胀交易是对美国经济增长强劲复苏的押注，过去几个月帮助提振了对经济敏感的公司的股价，同时打压美元并提高收益率。其中一些交易上周平仓。</blockquote></p><p> \"We saw big drama playing out in some of the reflation trades,\" said Thanos Bardas, co-head of global investment-grade fixed income at Neuberger Berman.</p><p><blockquote>路博迈(Neuberger Berman)全球投资级固定收益联席主管萨诺斯·巴尔达斯(Thanos Bardas)表示：“我们看到一些通货再膨胀交易中上演了大戏。”</blockquote></p><p> \"The market over-reaction was pretty evident,\" he said, adding that he expects cooler heads to prevail this week.</p><p><blockquote>“市场的过度反应非常明显，”他说，并补充说，他预计本周将出现冷静的头脑。</blockquote></p><p> Others also saw a reversal of some of those positions likely. Analysts at TD Securities said the yield curve flattening had been \"extreme.\"</p><p><blockquote>其他人也认为其中一些头寸可能会逆转。道明证券分析师表示，收益率曲线趋平已经“极端”。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve flattens when shorter-dated rates, which are more sensitive to interest-rate policy, move faster than longer-dated rates, indicating investors believe monetary policy could tighten before the economy has fully recovered from the coronavirus recession.</p><p><blockquote>当对利率政策更敏感的短期利率比长期利率变动更快时，收益率曲线就会变平，这表明投资者认为货币政策可能会在经济从冠状病毒衰退中完全复苏之前收紧。</blockquote></p><p> \"This past week showed crowded investor positioning for a steepening curve can cause the boat to flip over as flattening can occur quickly on any disinflationary developments,\" said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist, John Hancock Investment Management.</p><p><blockquote>约翰·汉考克投资管理公司联席首席投资策略师马特·米斯金表示：“过去一周表明，拥挤的投资者对陡峭曲线的定位可能会导致船倾覆，因为任何通货紧缩的发展都可能很快出现平坦化。”</blockquote></p><p> The Cboe Volatility Index, an options based measure of expectations for stock market gyrations, fell on Monday after touching a 4-week high earlier in the session. Meanwhile, the Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility Index was at a two-week high, while the MOVE index, a bond market volatility gauge was at a two-month high.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数是一种基于期权的股市波动预期指标，在盘中早些时候触及4周高点后，周一下跌。与此同时，德意志银行货币波动率指数处于两周高点，而衡量债券市场波动率的MOVE指数则处于两个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> The parade of Fed speakers began on Monday morning, with two regional officials saying that a faster withdrawal from the central bank's bond purchase program could give it more leeway in deciding when to raise interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储发言人的游行从周一早上开始，两名地区官员表示，更快地退出央行的债券购买计划可能会让其在决定何时加息时有更多回旋余地。</blockquote></p><p> Other speakers this week include Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester, who leans hawkish. [FED/DIARY]</p><p><blockquote>本周的其他发言人包括克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长洛雷塔·梅斯特，她倾向于鹰派。[进食/日记]</blockquote></p><p> Some investors were looking at the week as an opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者将本周视为一个机会。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are telling folks if you have a 12-month outlook that we would be looking at this pullback as an opportunity to enter the value trade,\" said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services in Atlanta, adding: \"It is a big week.\"</p><p><blockquote>亚特兰大Truist Advisory Services首席市场策略师基思·勒纳(Keith Lerner)表示：“我们告诉人们，如果你有12个月的前景，我们会将这次回调视为进入价值交易的机会。”这是重要的一周。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-investors-focus-central-bank-051623971.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-investors-focus-central-bank-051623971.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160989283","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - With all eyes on the U.S. central bank this week, some investors are looking to a parade of Federal Reserve speakers to calm market volatility, saying the reaction to the Fed's June meeting was too extreme.\nThe Fed last week signaled a potentially tougher stance on inflation and shifted projections for its first two rate hikes into 2023, sparking a selloff in U.S. stocks, boosting the dollar and flattening the Treasury yield curve in its fastest re-shaping since March 2020, according to Citi analysts.\nHowever, those moves partially reversed on Monday as stocks rebounded and the dollar retreated.\nInvestors are now anticipating what message will come from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, due to speak before Congress on Tuesday at 2 pm ET (1800 GMT), as well as several other key Fed officials making appearances throughout the week. Data is also due on housing and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.\n\"I expect Powell will try to reverse some of the damage last week's Fed meeting did,\" said Tom Graff, head of fixed income at Brown Advisory. \"I don't think they intended to communicate such a hawkish message.\"\nGraff pointed to the yield curve on Monday \"steepening a little which might show the market is expecting a little reversal.\"\nIn prepared remarks from Powell released by the Fed late Monday afternoon ahead of the his congressional hearing, the Fed chairman said he regards the current jump in inflation, in fact, as likely to fade.\n\"I think that this is just a continuation of what they said last week that things are improving, things are getting better but we're not there yet, and I think that's what this speaks to,\" said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut.\nREFLATION TRADE IN DANGER?\nAt stake is the market's view on whether the Fed has grown hawkish enough to endanger the so-called reflation trade, a bet on a powerful U.S. growth revival that has over the last several months helped boost prices for shares of economically sensitive companies, while weighing on the dollar and lifting yields. Some of those trades unwound last week.\n\"We saw big drama playing out in some of the reflation trades,\" said Thanos Bardas, co-head of global investment-grade fixed income at Neuberger Berman.\n\"The market over-reaction was pretty evident,\" he said, adding that he expects cooler heads to prevail this week.\nOthers also saw a reversal of some of those positions likely. Analysts at TD Securities said the yield curve flattening had been \"extreme.\"\nThe yield curve flattens when shorter-dated rates, which are more sensitive to interest-rate policy, move faster than longer-dated rates, indicating investors believe monetary policy could tighten before the economy has fully recovered from the coronavirus recession.\n\"This past week showed crowded investor positioning for a steepening curve can cause the boat to flip over as flattening can occur quickly on any disinflationary developments,\" said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist, John Hancock Investment Management.\nThe Cboe Volatility Index, an options based measure of expectations for stock market gyrations, fell on Monday after touching a 4-week high earlier in the session. Meanwhile, the Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility Index was at a two-week high, while the MOVE index, a bond market volatility gauge was at a two-month high.\nThe parade of Fed speakers began on Monday morning, with two regional officials saying that a faster withdrawal from the central bank's bond purchase program could give it more leeway in deciding when to raise interest rates.\nOther speakers this week include Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester, who leans hawkish. [FED/DIARY]\nSome investors were looking at the week as an opportunity.\n\"We are telling folks if you have a 12-month outlook that we would be looking at this pullback as an opportunity to enter the value trade,\" said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services in Atlanta, adding: \"It is a big week.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":353237590,"gmtCreate":1616499838810,"gmtModify":1634525516411,"author":{"id":"3573634322541563","authorId":"3573634322541563","name":"Zfron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ecdc2067440ea2fe4b2c600ae46f73","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573634322541563","authorIdStr":"3573634322541563"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like 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pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196610763","repostId":"1173244066","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173244066","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621004086,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173244066?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-14 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Disney, Airbnb and DoorDash results reveal about the post-pandemic economy<blockquote>迪士尼、爱彼迎和DoorDash的业绩揭示了大流行后经济的哪些信息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173244066","media":"CNN","summary":"London (CNN Business)Companies are gearing up for an era in which Covid-19 isn't the primary driver ","content":"<p>London (CNN Business)Companies are gearing up for an era in which Covid-19 isn't the primary driver of how people spend their money.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦（CNN Business）公司正在为一个新冠肺炎不再是人们花钱的主要驱动力的时代做准备。</blockquote></p><p> The big question: As the coronavirus situation improves in countries like the United States, which trends from the past 14 months will have staying power, and which will be resigned to the pandemic past?</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是：随着美国等国家冠状病毒情况的改善，过去14个月的哪些趋势将具有持久力，哪些将听天由命于疫情的过去？</blockquote></p><p> Airbnb, DoorDash and Disney (DIS), which reported results after US markets closed on Thursday, provide some idea.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎、DoorDash和迪士尼(DIS)在周四美国市场收盘后公布了业绩，这提供了一些思路。</blockquote></p><p> Airbnb: The company said interest in travel is surging again as vaccines become more widely available, pointing to a sharp increase in bookings in the United Kingdom immediately after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced plans in February to gradually exit lockdown. For US customers aged 60 and above, searches on Airbnb for summer travel rose by more than 60% between February and March.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎：该公司表示，随着疫苗变得更加广泛，人们对旅行的兴趣再次激增，并指出在英国首相Boris Johnson在2月份宣布逐步解除封锁的计划后，英国的预订量立即急剧增加。对于60岁及以上的美国客户来说，2月至3月期间，爱彼迎上夏季旅行的搜索量增长了60%以上。</blockquote></p><p> The company is also ready for more customers to use Airbnb for longer-term stays as they take advantage of greater acceptance of remote work. It said that nearly a quarter of stays last quarter were for 28 days or more, up 14% from 2019. Shares are down slightly in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还准备让更多客户使用爱彼迎进行长期住宿，因为他们利用了远程工作的更大接受度。该公司表示，上季度近四分之一的停留时间为28天或以上，比2019年增长了14%。股价在盘前交易中小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> DoorDash: People are still ordering lots of food delivery even as restaurants open back up for traditional dining. DoorDash reported a 198% jump in revenue last quarter to $1.1 billion even as it dealt with a shortage of workers, and increased its full-year outlook.</p><p><blockquote>DoorDash：即使餐馆重新开放传统餐饮，人们仍然订购大量外卖。DoorDash报告称，尽管面临工人短缺的问题，上季度收入仍增长198%，达到11亿美元，并上调了全年预期。</blockquote></p><p> \"As markets continued reopening and in-store dining increased across the US, the impact to our order volume was smaller than we expected, which contributed to strong performance in the quarter,\" the company said, though it cautioned that may have been partially attributable to stimulus checks. Shares are up almost 9% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示：“随着市场继续重新开放以及美国各地店内餐饮的增加，对我们订单量的影响小于我们的预期，这有助于本季度的强劲业绩。”不过该公司警告说，这可能部分归因于刺激检查。股价在盘前交易中上涨近9%。</blockquote></p><p> Disney: Streaming has carried Disney through the pandemic, with Disney+ growing to more than 100 million subscribers. Yet the biggest star in Disney's media universe appears to be shining a little less bright, sending shares down 4%.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼：流媒体让迪士尼穿越了疫情，Disney+的订户已经超过1亿。然而，迪士尼媒体领域最大的明星似乎不那么耀眼了，导致股价下跌4%。</blockquote></p><p> The company said Thursday that Disney+ now has 103.6 million subscribers, below the 110 million Wall Street was expecting. That's forced investors to wonder: Is that because people are getting vaccinated and stepping away from streaming? Netflix also reported sluggish subscription growth last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司周四表示，Disney+目前拥有1.036亿订阅用户，低于华尔街预期的1.1亿。这迫使投资者想知道：这是因为人们正在接种疫苗并远离流媒体吗？Netflix上季度的订阅增长也缓慢。</blockquote></p><p> Down but not out: Disney said it remains on track to reach its long-term subscriber goals despite the apparent slowdown. It's betting that as the pandemic eases, it will be able to produce more movies and shows, helping to bring in new customers.</p><p><blockquote>下滑但并未出局：迪士尼表示，尽管经济明显放缓，但仍有望实现其长期订户目标。该公司押注，随着疫情的缓解，它将能够制作更多的电影和节目，帮助吸引新客户。</blockquote></p><p> Whether it's right will become clearer in the months ahead, which will pose the true test of whether people actually ditch their sweatpants, get out of the house and shake up the economy once again.</p><p><blockquote>这是否正确将在未来几个月变得更加清晰，这将是人们是否真的抛弃运动裤、走出家门并再次撼动经济的真正考验。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It could get easier to get a credit card without a credit score</b></p><p><blockquote><b>无需信用评分即可获得信用卡可能会变得更容易</b></blockquote></p><p> For years, if you didn't have a credit score it was extremely difficult to get a credit card or certain types of loans. But a new plan among some of the nation's largest banks may help Americans without traditional credit histories get approved.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，如果你没有信用评分，很难获得信用卡或某些类型的贷款。但美国一些最大银行的一项新计划可能会帮助没有传统信用记录的美国人获得批准。</blockquote></p><p> Ten banks — including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) — have tentatively agreed to a plan to share data like bank account deposits and bill payment activity to help qualify borrowers without traditional credit histories, according to the Wall Street Journal.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，包括摩根大通(JPM)、富国银行(WFC)和美国合众银行(USB)在内的十家银行已初步同意一项共享银行账户存款和账单支付活动等数据的计划，以帮助没有传统信用记录的借款人获得资格。华尔街日报。</blockquote></p><p> The push for financial institutions to come to a data sharing agreement came from a program run by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The OCC has confirmed there is a plan, but the details of the agreement among the banks still need to be worked out.</p><p><blockquote>金融机构达成数据共享协议的推动力来自货币监理署运行的一项计划。OCC已确认有一项计划，但银行之间协议的细节仍需制定。</blockquote></p><p> Should the proposed arrangement go through, it would mean that if you don't have a credit score but you have a bank account at Wells Fargo, for example, you can use that financial history to help you get a credit card with another bank, like JPMorgan Chase.</p><p><blockquote>如果拟议的安排获得通过，这将意味着，例如，如果您没有信用评分，但在富国银行拥有银行账户，您可以利用该财务历史记录来帮助您在另一家银行获得信用卡，例如摩根大通。</blockquote></p><p> \"This will give millions of Americans the opportunity to access credit that's essential to building wealth — buying a home, starting a business, or financing education,\" Trish Wexler, a spokesperson for JPMorgan Chase, told CNN Business.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通发言人特里什·韦克斯勒(Trish Wexler)告诉CNN Business：“这将使数百万美国人有机会获得信贷，这对于积累财富至关重要——买房、创业或资助教育。”</blockquote></p><p> The backstory: There are currently 53 million people without a credit score, according to the Fair Isaac Corporation, the creator of FICO credit scores. These consumers, who are disproportionately lower income and people of color, face higher borrowing costs because they're forced to turn to products like payday loans.</p><p><blockquote>背景故事：根据FICO信用评分的创建者Fair Isaac Corporation的数据，目前有5300万人没有信用评分。这些消费者是不成比例的低收入和有色人种，他们面临更高的借贷成本，因为他们被迫转向发薪日贷款等产品。</blockquote></p><p> Banks and lenders refer to those without credit history as \"credit invisible.\" This group can include young people or recent immigrants, as well as people who haven't used credit in a long time or who have lost their access due to financial difficulties.</p><p><blockquote>银行和贷方将那些没有信用记录的人称为“隐形信用”。这个群体可以包括年轻人或新移民，以及很长时间没有使用信贷或由于经济困难而失去信贷的人。</blockquote></p><p> The business angle: Big banks may also be eager to revise their policies as online upstarts chip away at demand for their products.</p><p><blockquote>商业角度：随着在线新贵削弱对其产品的需求，大银行也可能渴望修改其政策。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"Some of this cooperation among the biggest banks may be a bit of reaction to smaller banks and fintech companies infringing on their space,\" said Matt Schulz, chief industry analyst at LendingTree.</p><p><blockquote>LendingTree首席行业分析师马特·舒尔茨(Matt Schulz)表示：“大型银行之间的一些合作可能是对小型银行和金融科技公司侵犯其空间的反应。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Target will temporarily stop selling trading cards amid frenzy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Target将在狂热中暂时停止销售交易卡</b></blockquote></p><p> Target (TGT) has announced that it will stop selling trading cards in its stores following a violent dispute at one of its locations — a sign of just how overheated the market for collectibles has become.</p><p><blockquote>塔吉特(TGT)宣布，在其一个门店发生暴力纠纷后，将停止在其商店销售交易卡，这表明收藏品市场已经变得多么过热。</blockquote></p><p> The details: Last week, a Target in Wisconsin was locked down after a man was physically assaulted by four others over sports trading cards.</p><p><blockquote>细节：上周，威斯康星州的一个目标被锁定，此前一名男子因体育交易卡被另外四人殴打。</blockquote></p><p> \"The safety of our guests and our team is our top priority,\" Target said in a statement. \"Out of an abundance of caution, we've decided to temporarily suspend the sale of MLB, NFL, NBA and Pokémon trading cards within our stores, effective [Friday].\"</p><p><blockquote>塔吉特在一份声明中表示：“客人和团队的安全是我们的首要任务。”“出于谨慎，我们决定从[周五]起暂时停止在我们的商店内销售MLB、NFL、NBA和Pokémon交易卡。”</blockquote></p><p> The cards will still be available online, the company said.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，这些卡仍将在网上提供。</blockquote></p><p> Remember: The value of trading cards has skyrocketed in recent months during the Covid-19 pandemic. That's grabbed interest from both amateur and professional investors looking to cash in on spectacular returns.</p><p><blockquote>请记住：近几个月来，在Covid-19大流行期间，交易卡的价值飙升。这引起了业余和专业投资者的兴趣，他们希望获得惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Target previously was limiting card purchases to just one item a day, saying that guests were lining up overnight to get their hands on hot items, per CNN affiliate WISN.</p><p><blockquote>据CNN附属机构WISN报道，塔吉特百货此前限制每天只能购买一件商品，称客人会连夜排队购买热门商品。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart (WMT), for its part, said it will keep selling cards in stores for now.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛(WMT)则表示，目前将继续在商店销售贺卡。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are determining what, if any, changes are needed to meet customer demand while ensuring a safe and enjoyable shopping experience,\" a spokesperson said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>一位发言人在一份声明中表示：“我们正在确定需要做出哪些改变（如果有的话），以满足客户需求，同时确保安全、愉快的购物体验。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Up next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一个</b></blockquote></p><p> Data on US retail sales, import and export prices and industrial production arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>美国零售销售、进出口价格和工业生产数据将于美国东部时间上午8:30公布。</blockquote></p><p> Coming next week: Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) report earnings as the housing market booms.</p><p><blockquote>下周：随着房地产市场的繁荣，家得宝(HD)和劳氏(LOW)公布收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Disney, Airbnb and DoorDash results reveal about the post-pandemic economy<blockquote>迪士尼、爱彼迎和DoorDash的业绩揭示了大流行后经济的哪些信息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-14 22:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>London (CNN Business)Companies are gearing up for an era in which Covid-19 isn't the primary driver of how people spend their money.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦（CNN Business）公司正在为一个新冠肺炎不再是人们花钱的主要驱动力的时代做准备。</blockquote></p><p> The big question: As the coronavirus situation improves in countries like the United States, which trends from the past 14 months will have staying power, and which will be resigned to the pandemic past?</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是：随着美国等国家冠状病毒情况的改善，过去14个月的哪些趋势将具有持久力，哪些将听天由命于疫情的过去？</blockquote></p><p> Airbnb, DoorDash and Disney (DIS), which reported results after US markets closed on Thursday, provide some idea.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎、DoorDash和迪士尼(DIS)在周四美国市场收盘后公布了业绩，这提供了一些思路。</blockquote></p><p> Airbnb: The company said interest in travel is surging again as vaccines become more widely available, pointing to a sharp increase in bookings in the United Kingdom immediately after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced plans in February to gradually exit lockdown. For US customers aged 60 and above, searches on Airbnb for summer travel rose by more than 60% between February and March.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎：该公司表示，随着疫苗变得更加广泛，人们对旅行的兴趣再次激增，并指出在英国首相Boris Johnson在2月份宣布逐步解除封锁的计划后，英国的预订量立即急剧增加。对于60岁及以上的美国客户来说，2月至3月期间，爱彼迎上夏季旅行的搜索量增长了60%以上。</blockquote></p><p> The company is also ready for more customers to use Airbnb for longer-term stays as they take advantage of greater acceptance of remote work. It said that nearly a quarter of stays last quarter were for 28 days or more, up 14% from 2019. Shares are down slightly in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还准备让更多客户使用爱彼迎进行长期住宿，因为他们利用了远程工作的更大接受度。该公司表示，上季度近四分之一的停留时间为28天或以上，比2019年增长了14%。股价在盘前交易中小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> DoorDash: People are still ordering lots of food delivery even as restaurants open back up for traditional dining. DoorDash reported a 198% jump in revenue last quarter to $1.1 billion even as it dealt with a shortage of workers, and increased its full-year outlook.</p><p><blockquote>DoorDash：即使餐馆重新开放传统餐饮，人们仍然订购大量外卖。DoorDash报告称，尽管面临工人短缺的问题，上季度收入仍增长198%，达到11亿美元，并上调了全年预期。</blockquote></p><p> \"As markets continued reopening and in-store dining increased across the US, the impact to our order volume was smaller than we expected, which contributed to strong performance in the quarter,\" the company said, though it cautioned that may have been partially attributable to stimulus checks. Shares are up almost 9% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示：“随着市场继续重新开放以及美国各地店内餐饮的增加，对我们订单量的影响小于我们的预期，这有助于本季度的强劲业绩。”不过该公司警告说，这可能部分归因于刺激检查。股价在盘前交易中上涨近9%。</blockquote></p><p> Disney: Streaming has carried Disney through the pandemic, with Disney+ growing to more than 100 million subscribers. Yet the biggest star in Disney's media universe appears to be shining a little less bright, sending shares down 4%.</p><p><blockquote>迪士尼：流媒体让迪士尼穿越了疫情，Disney+的订户已经超过1亿。然而，迪士尼媒体领域最大的明星似乎不那么耀眼了，导致股价下跌4%。</blockquote></p><p> The company said Thursday that Disney+ now has 103.6 million subscribers, below the 110 million Wall Street was expecting. That's forced investors to wonder: Is that because people are getting vaccinated and stepping away from streaming? Netflix also reported sluggish subscription growth last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司周四表示，Disney+目前拥有1.036亿订阅用户，低于华尔街预期的1.1亿。这迫使投资者想知道：这是因为人们正在接种疫苗并远离流媒体吗？Netflix上季度的订阅增长也缓慢。</blockquote></p><p> Down but not out: Disney said it remains on track to reach its long-term subscriber goals despite the apparent slowdown. It's betting that as the pandemic eases, it will be able to produce more movies and shows, helping to bring in new customers.</p><p><blockquote>下滑但并未出局：迪士尼表示，尽管经济明显放缓，但仍有望实现其长期订户目标。该公司押注，随着疫情的缓解，它将能够制作更多的电影和节目，帮助吸引新客户。</blockquote></p><p> Whether it's right will become clearer in the months ahead, which will pose the true test of whether people actually ditch their sweatpants, get out of the house and shake up the economy once again.</p><p><blockquote>这是否正确将在未来几个月变得更加清晰，这将是人们是否真的抛弃运动裤、走出家门并再次撼动经济的真正考验。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It could get easier to get a credit card without a credit score</b></p><p><blockquote><b>无需信用评分即可获得信用卡可能会变得更容易</b></blockquote></p><p> For years, if you didn't have a credit score it was extremely difficult to get a credit card or certain types of loans. But a new plan among some of the nation's largest banks may help Americans without traditional credit histories get approved.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，如果你没有信用评分，很难获得信用卡或某些类型的贷款。但美国一些最大银行的一项新计划可能会帮助没有传统信用记录的美国人获得批准。</blockquote></p><p> Ten banks — including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) — have tentatively agreed to a plan to share data like bank account deposits and bill payment activity to help qualify borrowers without traditional credit histories, according to the Wall Street Journal.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，包括摩根大通(JPM)、富国银行(WFC)和美国合众银行(USB)在内的十家银行已初步同意一项共享银行账户存款和账单支付活动等数据的计划，以帮助没有传统信用记录的借款人获得资格。华尔街日报。</blockquote></p><p> The push for financial institutions to come to a data sharing agreement came from a program run by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The OCC has confirmed there is a plan, but the details of the agreement among the banks still need to be worked out.</p><p><blockquote>金融机构达成数据共享协议的推动力来自货币监理署运行的一项计划。OCC已确认有一项计划，但银行之间协议的细节仍需制定。</blockquote></p><p> Should the proposed arrangement go through, it would mean that if you don't have a credit score but you have a bank account at Wells Fargo, for example, you can use that financial history to help you get a credit card with another bank, like JPMorgan Chase.</p><p><blockquote>如果拟议的安排获得通过，这将意味着，例如，如果您没有信用评分，但在富国银行拥有银行账户，您可以利用该财务历史记录来帮助您在另一家银行获得信用卡，例如摩根大通。</blockquote></p><p> \"This will give millions of Americans the opportunity to access credit that's essential to building wealth — buying a home, starting a business, or financing education,\" Trish Wexler, a spokesperson for JPMorgan Chase, told CNN Business.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通发言人特里什·韦克斯勒(Trish Wexler)告诉CNN Business：“这将使数百万美国人有机会获得信贷，这对于积累财富至关重要——买房、创业或资助教育。”</blockquote></p><p> The backstory: There are currently 53 million people without a credit score, according to the Fair Isaac Corporation, the creator of FICO credit scores. These consumers, who are disproportionately lower income and people of color, face higher borrowing costs because they're forced to turn to products like payday loans.</p><p><blockquote>背景故事：根据FICO信用评分的创建者Fair Isaac Corporation的数据，目前有5300万人没有信用评分。这些消费者是不成比例的低收入和有色人种，他们面临更高的借贷成本，因为他们被迫转向发薪日贷款等产品。</blockquote></p><p> Banks and lenders refer to those without credit history as \"credit invisible.\" This group can include young people or recent immigrants, as well as people who haven't used credit in a long time or who have lost their access due to financial difficulties.</p><p><blockquote>银行和贷方将那些没有信用记录的人称为“隐形信用”。这个群体可以包括年轻人或新移民，以及很长时间没有使用信贷或由于经济困难而失去信贷的人。</blockquote></p><p> The business angle: Big banks may also be eager to revise their policies as online upstarts chip away at demand for their products.</p><p><blockquote>商业角度：随着在线新贵削弱对其产品的需求，大银行也可能渴望修改其政策。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"Some of this cooperation among the biggest banks may be a bit of reaction to smaller banks and fintech companies infringing on their space,\" said Matt Schulz, chief industry analyst at LendingTree.</p><p><blockquote>LendingTree首席行业分析师马特·舒尔茨(Matt Schulz)表示：“大型银行之间的一些合作可能是对小型银行和金融科技公司侵犯其空间的反应。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Target will temporarily stop selling trading cards amid frenzy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Target将在狂热中暂时停止销售交易卡</b></blockquote></p><p> Target (TGT) has announced that it will stop selling trading cards in its stores following a violent dispute at one of its locations — a sign of just how overheated the market for collectibles has become.</p><p><blockquote>塔吉特(TGT)宣布，在其一个门店发生暴力纠纷后，将停止在其商店销售交易卡，这表明收藏品市场已经变得多么过热。</blockquote></p><p> The details: Last week, a Target in Wisconsin was locked down after a man was physically assaulted by four others over sports trading cards.</p><p><blockquote>细节：上周，威斯康星州的一个目标被锁定，此前一名男子因体育交易卡被另外四人殴打。</blockquote></p><p> \"The safety of our guests and our team is our top priority,\" Target said in a statement. \"Out of an abundance of caution, we've decided to temporarily suspend the sale of MLB, NFL, NBA and Pokémon trading cards within our stores, effective [Friday].\"</p><p><blockquote>塔吉特在一份声明中表示：“客人和团队的安全是我们的首要任务。”“出于谨慎，我们决定从[周五]起暂时停止在我们的商店内销售MLB、NFL、NBA和Pokémon交易卡。”</blockquote></p><p> The cards will still be available online, the company said.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，这些卡仍将在网上提供。</blockquote></p><p> Remember: The value of trading cards has skyrocketed in recent months during the Covid-19 pandemic. That's grabbed interest from both amateur and professional investors looking to cash in on spectacular returns.</p><p><blockquote>请记住：近几个月来，在Covid-19大流行期间，交易卡的价值飙升。这引起了业余和专业投资者的兴趣，他们希望获得惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Target previously was limiting card purchases to just one item a day, saying that guests were lining up overnight to get their hands on hot items, per CNN affiliate WISN.</p><p><blockquote>据CNN附属机构WISN报道，塔吉特百货此前限制每天只能购买一件商品，称客人会连夜排队购买热门商品。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart (WMT), for its part, said it will keep selling cards in stores for now.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛(WMT)则表示，目前将继续在商店销售贺卡。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are determining what, if any, changes are needed to meet customer demand while ensuring a safe and enjoyable shopping experience,\" a spokesperson said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>一位发言人在一份声明中表示：“我们正在确定需要做出哪些改变（如果有的话），以满足客户需求，同时确保安全、愉快的购物体验。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Up next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一个</b></blockquote></p><p> Data on US retail sales, import and export prices and industrial production arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>美国零售销售、进出口价格和工业生产数据将于美国东部时间上午8:30公布。</blockquote></p><p> Coming next week: Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) report earnings as the housing market booms.</p><p><blockquote>下周：随着房地产市场的繁荣，家得宝(HD)和劳氏(LOW)公布收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/14/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">CNN</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼","DASH":"DoorDash, Inc.","ABNB":"爱彼迎"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/14/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173244066","content_text":"London (CNN Business)Companies are gearing up for an era in which Covid-19 isn't the primary driver of how people spend their money.\nThe big question: As the coronavirus situation improves in countries like the United States, which trends from the past 14 months will have staying power, and which will be resigned to the pandemic past?\nAirbnb, DoorDash and Disney (DIS), which reported results after US markets closed on Thursday, provide some idea.\nAirbnb: The company said interest in travel is surging again as vaccines become more widely available, pointing to a sharp increase in bookings in the United Kingdom immediately after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced plans in February to gradually exit lockdown. For US customers aged 60 and above, searches on Airbnb for summer travel rose by more than 60% between February and March.\nThe company is also ready for more customers to use Airbnb for longer-term stays as they take advantage of greater acceptance of remote work. It said that nearly a quarter of stays last quarter were for 28 days or more, up 14% from 2019. Shares are down slightly in premarket trading.\nDoorDash: People are still ordering lots of food delivery even as restaurants open back up for traditional dining. DoorDash reported a 198% jump in revenue last quarter to $1.1 billion even as it dealt with a shortage of workers, and increased its full-year outlook.\n\"As markets continued reopening and in-store dining increased across the US, the impact to our order volume was smaller than we expected, which contributed to strong performance in the quarter,\" the company said, though it cautioned that may have been partially attributable to stimulus checks. Shares are up almost 9% in premarket trading.\nDisney: Streaming has carried Disney through the pandemic, with Disney+ growing to more than 100 million subscribers. Yet the biggest star in Disney's media universe appears to be shining a little less bright, sending shares down 4%.\nThe company said Thursday that Disney+ now has 103.6 million subscribers, below the 110 million Wall Street was expecting. That's forced investors to wonder: Is that because people are getting vaccinated and stepping away from streaming? Netflix also reported sluggish subscription growth last quarter.\nDown but not out: Disney said it remains on track to reach its long-term subscriber goals despite the apparent slowdown. It's betting that as the pandemic eases, it will be able to produce more movies and shows, helping to bring in new customers.\nWhether it's right will become clearer in the months ahead, which will pose the true test of whether people actually ditch their sweatpants, get out of the house and shake up the economy once again.\nIt could get easier to get a credit card without a credit score\nFor years, if you didn't have a credit score it was extremely difficult to get a credit card or certain types of loans. But a new plan among some of the nation's largest banks may help Americans without traditional credit histories get approved.\nTen banks — including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) — have tentatively agreed to a plan to share data like bank account deposits and bill payment activity to help qualify borrowers without traditional credit histories, according to the Wall Street Journal.\nThe push for financial institutions to come to a data sharing agreement came from a program run by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The OCC has confirmed there is a plan, but the details of the agreement among the banks still need to be worked out.\nShould the proposed arrangement go through, it would mean that if you don't have a credit score but you have a bank account at Wells Fargo, for example, you can use that financial history to help you get a credit card with another bank, like JPMorgan Chase.\n\"This will give millions of Americans the opportunity to access credit that's essential to building wealth — buying a home, starting a business, or financing education,\" Trish Wexler, a spokesperson for JPMorgan Chase, told CNN Business.\nThe backstory: There are currently 53 million people without a credit score, according to the Fair Isaac Corporation, the creator of FICO credit scores. These consumers, who are disproportionately lower income and people of color, face higher borrowing costs because they're forced to turn to products like payday loans.\nBanks and lenders refer to those without credit history as \"credit invisible.\" This group can include young people or recent immigrants, as well as people who haven't used credit in a long time or who have lost their access due to financial difficulties.\nThe business angle: Big banks may also be eager to revise their policies as online upstarts chip away at demand for their products.\n\"Some of this cooperation among the biggest banks may be a bit of reaction to smaller banks and fintech companies infringing on their space,\" said Matt Schulz, chief industry analyst at LendingTree.\nTarget will temporarily stop selling trading cards amid frenzy\nTarget (TGT) has announced that it will stop selling trading cards in its stores following a violent dispute at one of its locations — a sign of just how overheated the market for collectibles has become.\nThe details: Last week, a Target in Wisconsin was locked down after a man was physically assaulted by four others over sports trading cards.\n\"The safety of our guests and our team is our top priority,\" Target said in a statement. \"Out of an abundance of caution, we've decided to temporarily suspend the sale of MLB, NFL, NBA and Pokémon trading cards within our stores, effective [Friday].\"\nThe cards will still be available online, the company said.\nRemember: The value of trading cards has skyrocketed in recent months during the Covid-19 pandemic. That's grabbed interest from both amateur and professional investors looking to cash in on spectacular returns.\nTarget previously was limiting card purchases to just one item a day, saying that guests were lining up overnight to get their hands on hot items, per CNN affiliate WISN.\nWalmart (WMT), for its part, said it will keep selling cards in stores for now.\n\"We are determining what, if any, changes are needed to meet customer demand while ensuring a safe and enjoyable shopping experience,\" a spokesperson said in a statement.\nUp next\nData on US retail sales, import and export prices and industrial production arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET.\nComing next week: Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) report earnings as the housing market booms.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ABNB":0.9,"DIS":0.9,"DASH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371547839,"gmtCreate":1618963165321,"gmtModify":1634289623664,"author":{"id":"3573634322541563","authorId":"3573634322541563","name":"Zfron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ecdc2067440ea2fe4b2c600ae46f73","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573634322541563","authorIdStr":"3573634322541563"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371547839","repostId":"2129289138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345795803,"gmtCreate":1618350910802,"gmtModify":1634293610924,"author":{"id":"3573634322541563","authorId":"3573634322541563","name":"Zfron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ecdc2067440ea2fe4b2c600ae46f73","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573634322541563","authorIdStr":"3573634322541563"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345795803","repostId":"1194635432","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160203275,"gmtCreate":1623798510797,"gmtModify":1634028186502,"author":{"id":"3573634322541563","authorId":"3573634322541563","name":"Zfron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ecdc2067440ea2fe4b2c600ae46f73","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573634322541563","authorIdStr":"3573634322541563"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160203275","repostId":"2143680537","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}