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JonLucky

JonLucky

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2021-12-15

Conflicting contradictory confusing messages. I'm worse off now than before I read this article.

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2021-02-11

It's inevitable

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2021-04-03

If we all have crystal ball to see the future, where's the fun in that?

How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>

2021-10-03

This is quite interesting. Sound advice too.

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2021-09-26

Isn't that we're supposed to do regardless?! Whether or not market analysts agree on anything, we still have to do our own "due diligence" before making any significant decisions.

Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell<blockquote>观点：市场分析师无法就股市下一步走势达成一致。因此，在购买或出售之前，请仔细检查数据</blockquote>

2021-10-20

This is a saga that is just beginning to unfold. We can expect more plot twists and turns along the way.

What actually happened during GameStop mania?<blockquote>游戏驿站狂热期间到底发生了什么？</blockquote>

2021-05-31

Predictions are just opinions until proven otherwise. Buy time and only time alone will tell.

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2021-04-10

Taken a nap too long

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2021-04-16

Every position is justifiable, until time proves it to be right or wrong.

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2021-02-11

$Express,(EXPR)$When are you going to express appreciation? 🥺😅

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inevitable&nbsp;","listText":"It's inevitable&nbsp;","text":"It's inevitable","images":[],"top":2,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388338218","repostId":"2110416000","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":692689284,"gmtCreate":1640940435257,"gmtModify":1640940436360,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Indeed, it appears this vehicle will have to gingerly navigate the potholes ahead to emerge on the other side&nbsp;successfully.","listText":"Indeed, it appears this vehicle will have to gingerly navigate the potholes ahead to emerge on the other side&nbsp;successfully.","text":"Indeed, it appears this vehicle will have to gingerly navigate the potholes ahead to emerge on the other side successfully.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692689284","repostId":"1161129852","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161129852","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640936405,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1161129852?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-31 15:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Ride Could Get Bumpy For Lucid Motors Stock<blockquote>Lucid Motors 的股票可能会变得崎岖不平</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161129852","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"The fate of LCID stock in 2022 hinges on whether investor sentiment holds for EVs","content":"<p><div> It’s an understatement to say Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) and LCID stock had a very good 2021. But will this be the case for 2022? It depends on two things happening.First, the EV maker will need to ...</p><p><blockquote><div>如果说 Lucid Group（纳斯达克股票代码：LCID）和 LCID 股票在 2021 年的表现非常出色，那是一种保守的说法。但2022年会是这样吗？这取决于发生两件事。首先，电动汽车制造商需要……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/lcid-stock-ride-could-get-bumpy/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/lcid-stock-ride-could-get-bumpy/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Ride Could Get Bumpy For Lucid Motors Stock<blockquote>Lucid Motors 的股票可能会变得崎岖不平</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Ride Could Get Bumpy For Lucid Motors Stock<blockquote>Lucid Motors 的股票可能会变得崎岖不平</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-31 15:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> It’s an understatement to say Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) and LCID stock had a very good 2021. But will this be the case for 2022? It depends on two things happening.First, the EV maker will need to ...</p><p><blockquote><div>如果说 Lucid Group（纳斯达克股票代码：LCID）和 LCID 股票在 2021 年的表现非常出色，那是一种保守的说法。但2022年会是这样吗？这取决于发生两件事。首先，电动汽车制造商需要……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/lcid-stock-ride-could-get-bumpy/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/lcid-stock-ride-could-get-bumpy/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/lcid-stock-ride-could-get-bumpy/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/lcid-stock-ride-could-get-bumpy/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161129852","content_text":"It’s an understatement to say Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) and LCID stock had a very good 2021. But will this be the case for 2022? It depends on two things happening.First, the EV maker will need to continue making progress at the same pace it’s been doing so lately. Second, and more importantly, its performance in 2022 hinges heavily on investor sentiment for vehicle electrification plays.The first factor appears likely to pan out, even if it’s unclear whether Lucid can commence mass production without facing too many hiccups and hurdles. However, the jury’s still out on the second factor.Based on how EV stocks are stabilizing, it may seem a bit alarmist to believe more deflation of the EV bubble is set to happen. Yet if the market conditions that created this bubble in the first continue to change, another round of big declines may lie ahead for Lucid, along with the higher prominent electric vehicle names like Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) and Rivian(NASDAQ:RIVN).If you’re bullish on the EV megatrend, you may believe LCID stock is a winner that will keep on winning. But it’s important to keep in mind how changing sentiment could affect its performance.The Latest With LCID StockSettling down after its late November/early December slide, Lucid is finishing up the year quietly. Two more positive developments ($1.75 billion convertible debt offering,inclusion in the NASDAQ-100 index) helped to counter more negative news, such as its disclosure of a Securities and Exchange Commission subpoena about the special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) deal that took it public earlier this year.With this, plus the market calming down with its omicron/Fed worries, LCID stock has found support. As of this writing, it’s trading between $35 and $40 per share. But while the stock was a big winner in 2021 (up 280%), this may not be the case in 2022.Again, concerns are not so much due to the risk that it drops the ball in the next 12 months. Based on how successful its execution has been this year, it’s hard to doubt that Lucid will meet its production goals for the next two years (20,000 vehicles in 2022, 50,000 vehicles in 2023).Yet if in the months ahead, bullishness for EV plays continues to cool down? Meeting and/or beating near-term expectations may not be enough for it to hold onto its rich valuation.Rising Rates Could Still Keep Lucid in ReverseThe market’s appetite for growth stocks played a big role in sending LCID stock to the moon this year. However, based on how sentiment is shifting, this may not continue in the months ahead.That is, market environment is more likely to become more unfavorable to growth stocks. As the Federal Reserve continues to take on a more hawkish tone, mentioning faster tapering and rate hikes for 2022, growth stocks are going to continue to lose their luster.In turn,the pivot away from riskier assets like early-stage growth stocks will carry on. Firmly in that category, EV stocks like Lucid will likely face more downward pressure. This could far outweigh company-specific positives, such as the budding automaker successfully ramping up production, or wowing Wall Street with its delivery numbers.To what extent could that affect LCID stock over the next 12 months? At this point, it’s hard to tell.  We could see EV stocks experience an extended sell-off, much like what happened with internet stocks following the bursting of the dot-com bubble. As you may recall, even the dot-com winners in the making, like Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), saw massive drawdowns and took many years to get back to their respective high-water marks.The Bottom LineBased upon its success this year, it’s easy to be confident things will continue to work out favorably for Lucid. Yet whether that happens to LCID stock as well remains to be seen. The winds are blowing differently today than they were as recently as late November.A return to normal for Fed monetary policy may signal the end of the epic run growth stocks have gone on since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. As the market’s view on EV stocks is in the driver’s seat, what’s the takeaway?Before buying LCID stock just on your bullishness for the EV trend, take a read of the room. If it appears the cycling out of growth stocks will continue, it’s best to wait before buying it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692313110,"gmtCreate":1640846090463,"gmtModify":1640846091493,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It's a paradox, but Simba will solve that in the end.&nbsp;","listText":"It's a paradox, but Simba will solve that in the end.&nbsp;","text":"It's a paradox, but Simba will solve that in the end.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692313110","repostId":"1193773446","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3953,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692337352,"gmtCreate":1640845199307,"gmtModify":1640845602294,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bullish or just bullshit. Time will tell.&nbsp;","listText":"Bullish or just bullshit. Time will tell.&nbsp;","text":"Bullish or just bullshit. Time will tell.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692337352","repostId":"1150743331","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150743331","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640842556,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1150743331?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 13:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Foundry for Crypto Is a Game Changer for Palantir Stock<blockquote>加密货币铸造厂改变了 Palantir 股票的游戏规则</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150743331","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Palantir(NYSE:PLTR) stock is a thoroughbred growth stock. It has an asset-light business model, soli","content":"<p><div> Palantir(NYSE:PLTR) stock is a thoroughbred growth stock. It has an asset-light business model, solid government contracts, and a staggering amount of cash.In recently reported earnings,it hit the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>Palantir（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）股票是一只纯种成长型股票。它拥有轻资产的商业模式、可靠的政府合同和惊人的现金。在最近公布的财报中， 它达到了……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/foundry-for-crypto-is-a-game-changer-for-pltr-stock/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/foundry-for-crypto-is-a-game-changer-for-pltr-stock/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foundry for Crypto Is a Game Changer for Palantir Stock<blockquote>加密货币铸造厂改变了 Palantir 股票的游戏规则</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFoundry for Crypto Is a Game Changer for Palantir Stock<blockquote>加密货币铸造厂改变了 Palantir 股票的游戏规则</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 13:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Palantir(NYSE:PLTR) stock is a thoroughbred growth stock. It has an asset-light business model, solid government contracts, and a staggering amount of cash.In recently reported earnings,it hit the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>Palantir（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）股票是一只纯种成长型股票。它拥有轻资产的商业模式、可靠的政府合同和惊人的现金。在最近公布的财报中， 它达到了……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/foundry-for-crypto-is-a-game-changer-for-pltr-stock/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/foundry-for-crypto-is-a-game-changer-for-pltr-stock/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/foundry-for-crypto-is-a-game-changer-for-pltr-stock/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/foundry-for-crypto-is-a-game-changer-for-pltr-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150743331","content_text":"Palantir(NYSE:PLTR) stock is a thoroughbred growth stock. It has an asset-light business model, solid government contracts, and a staggering amount of cash.In recently reported earnings,it hit the ball out of the park once again. Both revenue and earnings figures beat analyst estimates. And guidance was also upbeat. Then why has PLTR stock lost a third of its value in a recent sell-off?Well, here is where it gets interesting.Investors are demanding when it comes to Palantir. They saw the potential, and they liked it. After all, that is what drove them in droves to the stock when it made its colossal debut last year. Much like every other tech IPOthese days, investors made money hand over fist.But there are a few things peeving stockholders. First, they want the commercial business to start producing the goods. Palantir has an excellent record when it comes to government contracts. But the commercial business is not as successful. Investors want diversification in the revenue mix. Hence, it is a major factor affecting investor sentiment.Potential regulatory activity is the other issue hanging over PLTR stock like a dark cloud. Due to the close association of Palantir and the defense establishment,certain members of Congress have taken issue with the big data company. In particular, the company’s contracts with the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have come under fire.However, Palantir is a solid enterprise that is consistently expanding. For example, Palantir has developed a new service that will support compliance regulations for cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies are a hot commodity with an exciting future ahead. With cryptocurrencies being so popular and institutional adoption legitimizing this new industry, it is a potential game changer. The rest of its business is also growing nicely.Palantir’s Expanding Commercial BusinessPalantir offers multiple products to companies and governments for improving information gathering, operational capabilities. Its various platforms have wide applications across industries. The U.S military and other government agencies use Palantir’s investigative analysis capabilities to solve crime in America, abroad, or anywhere where users can apply its data-driven software.The use of AI in government is widespread. With their Gotham platform, large organizations like Palantir have made it possible for them to integrate massive amounts of data into one operating system, which these powerful programs can then analyze – it allows analysts to perform due diligence on a massive amount of data at lightning speed.Palantir’sFoundry option is a simple data pipeline that brings together back-end and front-end information so you can access it with ease. This breaks down barriers to understanding. It is especially helpful for those who need help managing or analyzing large sets on their own, whether they’re in corporate America looking at customer relationships across departments or an intelligence agency trying to make sense of unforeseen threats before they happen.Palantir is expanding its Foundry offering in a big way. The company rolled out “Foundry for Builders,” an end-to-end analytics platform targeting startup companies. Palantir has added 10 more companies to its Foundry for Builders SaaS platform in October of this year – startups from all over are now using it as their go-to growth accelerator.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696704396,"gmtCreate":1640761048662,"gmtModify":1640761049676,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It's either an Albatross or a Crow","listText":"It's either an Albatross or a Crow","text":"It's either an Albatross or a Crow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696704396","repostId":"2194435036","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696702386,"gmtCreate":1640760631883,"gmtModify":1640760632938,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"CurALeaf makes a deal to Cure-a-leaf&nbsp;","listText":"CurALeaf makes a deal to Cure-a-leaf&nbsp;","text":"CurALeaf makes a deal to Cure-a-leaf","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696702386","repostId":"1187597556","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187597556","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640759811,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187597556?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-29 14:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cannabis Leader Curaleaf Makes a Major Expansion Play<blockquote>大麻领导者 Curaleaf 进行重大扩张</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187597556","media":"TheStreet","summary":"The largest cannabis company in the country, Curaleaf(CURLF), plans to acquire Bloom Dispensaries in","content":"<p>The largest cannabis company in the country,&nbsp;Curaleaf(<b>CURLF</b>), plans to acquire Bloom Dispensaries in its efforts to grow its Arizona market.</p><p><blockquote>该国最大的大麻公司 Curaleaf（<b>卷曲</b>），计划收购 Bloom Dispensaries，以努力扩大其亚利桑那州市场。</blockquote></p><p> As part of an all-cash deal valued at&nbsp;$211 million, the Wakefield, Mass.-based Curaleaf committed to purchasing the Arizona-based marijuana dispenser and two processing facilities Phoenix and multiple dispensaries in Tucson, Peoria, and Sedona.</p><p><blockquote>作为价值 2.11 亿美元的全现金交易的一部分，总部位于马萨诸塞州韦克菲尔德的 Curaleaf 承诺购买位于亚利桑那州的大麻分配器和凤凰城的两个加工设施以及图森、皮奥里亚和塞多纳的多个药房。</blockquote></p><p> The deal is expected to close in January 2022 after regulator approval.</p><p><blockquote>该交易预计将在获得监管机构批准后于 2022 年 1 月完成。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Curaleaf Has Big Expansion Plans</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Curaleaf 有重大扩张计划</b></blockquote></p><p> The move is part of Curaleaf's larger plan to expand its reach in different parts of the country and Arizona in particular — the Bloom acquisition will bring it up to&nbsp;16 dispensaries in Arizona and 128 across the country.</p><p><blockquote>此举是Curaleaf扩大其在美国不同地区，特别是亚利桑那州的影响力的更大计划的一部分——收购Bloom将使其在亚利桑那州拥有16家药房，在全国拥有128家药房。</blockquote></p><p> It chose Bloom, which is expected to generate $66 million in revenue and EBITDA margins of more than 40%, for its \"attractive financial profile.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司选择 Bloom 是因为其“有吸引力的财务状况”，预计该公司将产生 6600 万美元的收入和超过 40% 的 EBITDA 利润率。</blockquote></p><p> \"Bloom has built a strong and profitable business, and we believe the combination of our two companies will enhance our competitive position and ability to continue gaining share in the highly attractive Arizona market,\" Curaleaf CEO Joseph Bayern said in a press statement.</p><p><blockquote>Curaleaf 首席执行官 Joseph Bayern 在一份新闻声明中表示：“Bloom 已经建立了强大且盈利的业务，我们相信两家公司的合并将增强我们的竞争地位和继续在极具吸引力的亚利桑那州市场中获得份额的能力。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Is Curaleaf Paying for the Deal?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Curaleaf如何支付这笔交易？</b></blockquote></p><p> Curaleaf will initially pay out $51 million in cash at closing. For the rest, it signed promissory notes of $50 million, $50 million, and $60 million due on the first, second, and third anniversary of the close.</p><p><blockquote>Curaleaf 将在交易结束时支付 5100 万美元现金。对于其余的，它签署了5000万美元、5000万美元和6000万美元的期票，分别在交割一周年纪念日、二周年纪念日和三周年到期。</blockquote></p><p> News of the acquisition has not had an upward effect on the company's value. Curaleaf is 34.33% to $8.48 year-over-year and down 2.59% since this morning.</p><p><blockquote>收购消息并未对公司价值产生上行影响。Curaleaf 同比上涨 34.33%，至 8.48 美元，自今天上午以来下跌 2.59%。</blockquote></p><p> \"In addition to bolstering our strong position in this key growth market with an attractive portfolio of retail and cultivation assets, Bloom will be immediately accretive to our adjusted EBITDA margins upon close,\" says Curaleaf Executive Chairman Boris Jordan.</p><p><blockquote>Curaleaf 执行主席鲍里斯·乔丹 (Boris Jordan) 表示：“除了通过有吸引力的零售和种植资产组合巩固我们在这个关键增长市场的强势地位外，Bloom 还将在收盘后立即提高我们调整后的 EBITDA 利润率。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cannabis Leader Curaleaf Makes a Major Expansion Play<blockquote>大麻领导者 Curaleaf 进行重大扩张</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCannabis Leader Curaleaf Makes a Major Expansion Play<blockquote>大麻领导者 Curaleaf 进行重大扩张</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-29 14:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The largest cannabis company in the country,&nbsp;Curaleaf(<b>CURLF</b>), plans to acquire Bloom Dispensaries in its efforts to grow its Arizona market.</p><p><blockquote>该国最大的大麻公司 Curaleaf（<b>卷曲</b>），计划收购 Bloom Dispensaries，以努力扩大其亚利桑那州市场。</blockquote></p><p> As part of an all-cash deal valued at&nbsp;$211 million, the Wakefield, Mass.-based Curaleaf committed to purchasing the Arizona-based marijuana dispenser and two processing facilities Phoenix and multiple dispensaries in Tucson, Peoria, and Sedona.</p><p><blockquote>作为价值 2.11 亿美元的全现金交易的一部分，总部位于马萨诸塞州韦克菲尔德的 Curaleaf 承诺购买位于亚利桑那州的大麻分配器和凤凰城的两个加工设施以及图森、皮奥里亚和塞多纳的多个药房。</blockquote></p><p> The deal is expected to close in January 2022 after regulator approval.</p><p><blockquote>该交易预计将在获得监管机构批准后于 2022 年 1 月完成。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Curaleaf Has Big Expansion Plans</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Curaleaf 有重大扩张计划</b></blockquote></p><p> The move is part of Curaleaf's larger plan to expand its reach in different parts of the country and Arizona in particular — the Bloom acquisition will bring it up to&nbsp;16 dispensaries in Arizona and 128 across the country.</p><p><blockquote>此举是Curaleaf扩大其在美国不同地区，特别是亚利桑那州的影响力的更大计划的一部分——收购Bloom将使其在亚利桑那州拥有16家药房，在全国拥有128家药房。</blockquote></p><p> It chose Bloom, which is expected to generate $66 million in revenue and EBITDA margins of more than 40%, for its \"attractive financial profile.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司选择 Bloom 是因为其“有吸引力的财务状况”，预计该公司将产生 6600 万美元的收入和超过 40% 的 EBITDA 利润率。</blockquote></p><p> \"Bloom has built a strong and profitable business, and we believe the combination of our two companies will enhance our competitive position and ability to continue gaining share in the highly attractive Arizona market,\" Curaleaf CEO Joseph Bayern said in a press statement.</p><p><blockquote>Curaleaf 首席执行官 Joseph Bayern 在一份新闻声明中表示：“Bloom 已经建立了强大且盈利的业务，我们相信两家公司的合并将增强我们的竞争地位和继续在极具吸引力的亚利桑那州市场中获得份额的能力。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Is Curaleaf Paying for the Deal?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Curaleaf如何支付这笔交易？</b></blockquote></p><p> Curaleaf will initially pay out $51 million in cash at closing. For the rest, it signed promissory notes of $50 million, $50 million, and $60 million due on the first, second, and third anniversary of the close.</p><p><blockquote>Curaleaf 将在交易结束时支付 5100 万美元现金。对于其余的，它签署了5000万美元、5000万美元和6000万美元的期票，分别在交割一周年纪念日、二周年纪念日和三周年到期。</blockquote></p><p> News of the acquisition has not had an upward effect on the company's value. Curaleaf is 34.33% to $8.48 year-over-year and down 2.59% since this morning.</p><p><blockquote>收购消息并未对公司价值产生上行影响。Curaleaf 同比上涨 34.33%，至 8.48 美元，自今天上午以来下跌 2.59%。</blockquote></p><p> \"In addition to bolstering our strong position in this key growth market with an attractive portfolio of retail and cultivation assets, Bloom will be immediately accretive to our adjusted EBITDA margins upon close,\" says Curaleaf Executive Chairman Boris Jordan.</p><p><blockquote>Curaleaf 执行主席鲍里斯·乔丹 (Boris Jordan) 表示：“除了通过有吸引力的零售和种植资产组合巩固我们在这个关键增长市场的强势地位外，Bloom 还将在收盘后立即提高我们调整后的 EBITDA 利润率。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/curaleaf-buys-bloom-dispensaries-for-211-million?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CURLF":"Curaleaf Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/curaleaf-buys-bloom-dispensaries-for-211-million?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187597556","content_text":"The largest cannabis company in the country, Curaleaf(CURLF), plans to acquire Bloom Dispensaries in its efforts to grow its Arizona market.\nAs part of an all-cash deal valued at $211 million, the Wakefield, Mass.-based Curaleaf committed to purchasing the Arizona-based marijuana dispenser and two processing facilities Phoenix and multiple dispensaries in Tucson, Peoria, and Sedona.\nThe deal is expected to close in January 2022 after regulator approval.\nCuraleaf Has Big Expansion Plans\nThe move is part of Curaleaf's larger plan to expand its reach in different parts of the country and Arizona in particular — the Bloom acquisition will bring it up to 16 dispensaries in Arizona and 128 across the country.\nIt chose Bloom, which is expected to generate $66 million in revenue and EBITDA margins of more than 40%, for its \"attractive financial profile.\"\n\"Bloom has built a strong and profitable business, and we believe the combination of our two companies will enhance our competitive position and ability to continue gaining share in the highly attractive Arizona market,\" Curaleaf CEO Joseph Bayern said in a press statement.\nHow Is Curaleaf Paying for the Deal?\nCuraleaf will initially pay out $51 million in cash at closing. For the rest, it signed promissory notes of $50 million, $50 million, and $60 million due on the first, second, and third anniversary of the close.\nNews of the acquisition has not had an upward effect on the company's value. Curaleaf is 34.33% to $8.48 year-over-year and down 2.59% since this morning.\n\"In addition to bolstering our strong position in this key growth market with an attractive portfolio of retail and cultivation assets, Bloom will be immediately accretive to our adjusted EBITDA margins upon close,\" says Curaleaf Executive Chairman Boris Jordan.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CURLF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696012684,"gmtCreate":1640573247955,"gmtModify":1640573248985,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The sting from a thousand ants is no less painful, nor less deadlier, than&nbsp;a sting from a big bad bee.","listText":"The sting from a thousand ants is no less painful, nor less deadlier, than&nbsp;a sting from a big bad bee.","text":"The sting from a thousand ants is no less painful, nor less deadlier, than a sting from a big bad bee.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696012684","repostId":"2194177711","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698470795,"gmtCreate":1640515785322,"gmtModify":1640515786372,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not all matches are made in heaven&nbsp;","listText":"Not all matches are made in heaven&nbsp;","text":"Not all matches are made in heaven","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698470795","repostId":"1144001147","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144001147","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640485026,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1144001147?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-26 10:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Year After Announcing a Big Partnership, Ocugen Is in a Sorry State<blockquote>宣布大型合作伙伴关系一年后，Ocugen 陷入了困境</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144001147","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"In the last year, Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN) stock is still among the top performers. During this period, t","content":"<p><div> In the last year, Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN) stock is still among the top performers. During this period, the stock has surged by over 500%. The stock’s ascent began after Dec. 21, 2020 — starting from there...</p><p><blockquote><div>去年，Ocugen（纳斯达克股票代码：OCGN）股票仍然是表现最好的股票之一。在此期间，该股飙升超过500%。该股的上涨始于 2020 年 12 月 21 日之后--从那里开始...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/a-year-after-its-big-partnership-with-bharat-ocgn-stock-is-in-a-sorry-state/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/a-year-after-its-big-partnership-with-bharat-ocgn-stock-is-in-a-sorry-state/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Year After Announcing a Big Partnership, Ocugen Is in a Sorry State<blockquote>宣布大型合作伙伴关系一年后，Ocugen 陷入了困境</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Year After Announcing a Big Partnership, Ocugen Is in a Sorry State<blockquote>宣布大型合作伙伴关系一年后，Ocugen 陷入了困境</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-26 10:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> In the last year, Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN) stock is still among the top performers. During this period, the stock has surged by over 500%. The stock’s ascent began after Dec. 21, 2020 — starting from there...</p><p><blockquote><div>去年，Ocugen（纳斯达克股票代码：OCGN）股票仍然是表现最好的股票之一。在此期间，该股飙升超过500%。该股的上涨始于 2020 年 12 月 21 日之后--从那里开始...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/a-year-after-its-big-partnership-with-bharat-ocgn-stock-is-in-a-sorry-state/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/a-year-after-its-big-partnership-with-bharat-ocgn-stock-is-in-a-sorry-state/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/a-year-after-its-big-partnership-with-bharat-ocgn-stock-is-in-a-sorry-state/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OCGN":"Ocugen"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/a-year-after-its-big-partnership-with-bharat-ocgn-stock-is-in-a-sorry-state/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144001147","content_text":"In the last year, Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN) stock is still among the top performers. During this period, the stock has surged by over 500%. The stock’s ascent began after Dec. 21, 2020 — starting from there, the stock is up over 1,600%.\nHowever, it’s worth noting that OCGN stock was trading well below one dollar before it stitched a partnership with Bharat Biotech. The companies announced plans to begin manufacturing Covid-19 vaccines in the U.S. on Dec. 22 last year.\nBeyond the news of this partnership, there has been little to cheer for investors. OCGN stock traded at all-time highs of $18.77 in February and reached slightly lower peaks in May and November. The stock traded at $5.12 at the start of Dec. 23.\nOcugen will continue to underperform going forward. Even after the downtrend in the last few months, OCGN stock should be avoided.\nLet’s talk about the reasons to be bearish.\nFDA Approval Remains Elusive\nPfizer(NYSE:PFE) and Moderna(NASDAQ:MRNA) have been leaders in the vaccine race in the U.S. In a country where more than 70% of the population has already been vaccinated, Ocugen has yet to secure an approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.\nBack in June, the biotech company’s application for emergency use authorization was rejected by the FDA. The recommendation by the FDA was to file for a biologics license application, which implies full approval.\nIn November, Ocugen announced that the FDA has “issued a clinical hold on the Company’s Investigational New Drug application (IND) to evaluate the COVID-19 vaccine candidate.” The FDA will be identifying the specific deficiencies that form a basis for the clinical hold. Once Ocugen addresses these deficiencies, there will be some progress.\nThe key point is that it’s been over a year since Ocugen announced the partnership with Bharat Biotech. The company has still been unsuccessful from an approval perspective.\nIn July, Ocugen had also initiated a rolling submission to Health Canada for the vaccine. There is no positive news on that front either.\nLet’s imagine a scenario where Ocugen receives an approval for vaccine use in Q1 2022. This is very unlikely. However, even in an optimistic case scenario, Ocugen needs to compete in a market where vaccination percentage is high. There is unlikely to be a case for strong revenue and cash flow growth.\nCan Omicron Provide a Lifeline for OCGN Stock?\nThe omicron variant has been a cause of concern for governments globally. Ocugen and partner Bharat Biotech are currently studying the effectiveness of the vaccine against the variant.\nIf the vaccine proves to be effective, can it be a game-changer for Ocugen? Most likely, no.\nFirst and foremost, Moderna has announced that its Covid-19 booster increases neutralizing antibodies 37-fold against Omicron variant.\nFurthermore, Pfizer has announced that a third dose increases the “neutralizing antibody by 25-fold compared to two doses against the Omicron variant.”\nClearly, the leading vaccine makers have an edge. Even if Ocugen announces that its vaccine is effective against the omicron variant, the stock is unlikely to trend higher.\nPeople who have already taken two shots of Moderna or Pfizer are unlikely to pursue a booster shot with Ocugen. Additionally, Ocugen is still struggling for approval.\nIt’s also worth noting that Ocugen needs to share revenue with Bharat Biotech. The visibility for healthy cash flows is therefore very unlikely.\nOCGN Stock Will Trend Lower\nOCGN stock is likely to continue trending lower in the coming months. Without an approval, the company is rapidly losing out on any revenue and cash flow potential.\nThe company is building a pipeline of drugs for various indications. However, the pipeline for various indications is still at a pre-clinical stage.\nThe stock trend will therefore be dictated by the outcome of Covid-19 vaccine approval and revenue potential. Things seem bleak on that front.\nIt also seems unlikely that Ocugen has a capability to expand the vaccine partnership with Bharat Biotech to other countries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OCGN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3995,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698222515,"gmtCreate":1640414135741,"gmtModify":1640414136773,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Why not just have them both","listText":"Why not just have them both","text":"Why not just have them both","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698222515","repostId":"2193178191","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5963,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698226159,"gmtCreate":1640413684199,"gmtModify":1640413685236,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Mostly highly unlikely, but highly unlikely tiny when they occur.","listText":"Mostly highly unlikely, but highly unlikely tiny when they occur.","text":"Mostly highly unlikely, but highly unlikely tiny when they occur.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698226159","repostId":"1156159690","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698223498,"gmtCreate":1640412940650,"gmtModify":1640412941679,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It's a matter of time&nbsp;","listText":"It's a matter of time&nbsp;","text":"It's a matter of time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698223498","repostId":"693467733","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":693467733,"gmtCreate":1640065720060,"gmtModify":1640065720271,"author":{"id":"3582010039361860","authorId":"3582010039361860","name":"ngjr90","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2904905ef5b1f52f808bd60775612fea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582010039361860","authorIdStr":"3582010039361860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>Will it breakeven?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>Will it breakeven?","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$Will it breakeven?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dd4f4e6d3b0c966cd4f91c586b353b","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693467733","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698174758,"gmtCreate":1640328856622,"gmtModify":1640329331131,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Final hurrah before bringing for Christmas weekend&nbsp;","listText":"Final hurrah before bringing for Christmas weekend&nbsp;","text":"Final hurrah before bringing for Christmas weekend","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698174758","repostId":"2193078140","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691721605,"gmtCreate":1640247388590,"gmtModify":1640247389640,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This technology is already outdated. People's interests have already shifted.&nbsp;","listText":"This technology is already outdated. People's interests have already shifted.&nbsp;","text":"This technology is already outdated. People's interests have already shifted.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691721605","repostId":"1147202616","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1876,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691479103,"gmtCreate":1640233965225,"gmtModify":1640233966228,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pre-Christmas bounty to power up for the coming year","listText":"Pre-Christmas bounty to power up for the coming year","text":"Pre-Christmas bounty to power up for the coming year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691479103","repostId":"2193113147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1983,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691833665,"gmtCreate":1640161849613,"gmtModify":1640161850623,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Lengthy but well argued. But I wonder what Warren Buffet would actually do.","listText":"Lengthy but well argued. But I wonder what Warren Buffet would actually do.","text":"Lengthy but well argued. But I wonder what Warren Buffet would actually do.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691833665","repostId":"1101145405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101145405","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640152602,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1101145405?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-22 13:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Buffett Should Sell Berkshire's Apple Stake<blockquote>为什么巴菲特应该出售伯克希尔在苹果的股份</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101145405","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a strong buy when Berkshire made its first investment. Today, things are ver","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a strong buy when Berkshire made its first investment. Today, things are very different - instead of cheap and out of favor, AAPL is very expensive.</li>  <li>Berkshire has shown that they are willing to capitalize on low BRK valuations by buying back shares when they are undervalued.</li>  <li>Selling overvalued AAPL and using the proceeds to buy undervalued BRK could generate significant shareholder value for Berkshire's investors, I believe.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c50b6ba612256ee64eedf00f7b274a61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Paul Morigi/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>当伯克希尔进行第一笔投资时，苹果一直是大力买入的股票。如今，情况已经大不相同了——AAPL 不再便宜且失宠，而是非常昂贵。</li><li>伯克希尔已经表明，他们愿意在 BRK 估值被低估时通过回购股票来利用较低的估值。</li><li>我相信，出售被高估的 AAPL 并用所得款项购买被低估的 BRK，可以为伯克希尔的投资者带来巨大的股东价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>保罗·莫里吉/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's (AAPL) shares are pretty expensive, and the company is entering a period of lower growth if analysts are correct. This means that it could be an opportune time for investors to sell shares to lock in gain - this also holds true for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B), which is a major shareholder. Berkshire could use the proceeds to ramp up its already healthy buybacks further, which would be immensely accretive at current valuations.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 (AAPL) 的股价相当昂贵，如果分析师正确的话，该公司正在进入一个增长放缓的时期。这意味着投资者可能是出售股票以锁定收益的好时机——主要股东伯克希尔哈撒韦公司 (BRK.A) (BRK.B) 也是如此。伯克希尔可以利用这笔收益进一步加大其本已健康的回购力度，以目前的估值计算，这将带来巨大的增值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Could Be Opportune To Lock In Gains In Apple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么锁定苹果收益是合适的</b></blockquote></p><p> Last week, I wrote a longer&nbsp;article on Apple&nbsp;and why I believe that shares are currently trading above fair value. The quick recap is that Apple is trading at the highest valuation in a long period of time, no matter whether we look at its earnings multiple, its EV to EBITDA ratio, or its cash flow yield. The EV/EBITDA multiple is most telling, I believe, as it accounts for changes in debt usage and in Apple's cash position over the years:</p><p><blockquote>上周，我写了一篇关于苹果以及为什么我认为股票交易目前高于公允价值的较长文章。快速回顾一下，无论我们查看其市盈率、EV 与 EBITDA 比率还是现金流收益率，苹果的交易估值都处于很长一段时间以来的最高水平。我认为，EV/EBITDA 倍数最能说明问题，因为它考虑了多年来债务使用和苹果现金状况的变化：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e6b5d51759ba11c78d02d04731e19a2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At easily more than twice the historical valuation, AAPL is pretty expensive. At the same time, Apple is entering a period of&nbsp;slower growth, according to the analyst community, since the iPhone and iPad lines are not generating significant business growth any longer, while the Apple Car is likely still years away. The combination of an above-average valuation and a below-average growth rate, combined with weaker tailwinds from buybacks (which are less effective at the current high valuation), means that Apple could be poised for underperformance going forward, which is why I believe that locking in gains could make a lot of sense.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 的估值轻松超过历史估值的两倍，相当昂贵。与此同时，分析师表示，苹果正在进入一个增长放缓的时期，因为 iPhone 和 iPad 产品线不再产生显着的业务增长，而苹果汽车可能还需要数年时间。高于平均水平的估值和低于平均水平的增长率，再加上回购带来的较弱推动力（在当前的高估值下效果较差），意味着苹果未来可能会出现表现不佳的情况，这就是为什么我相信锁定收益可能很有意义。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Berkshire's Apple Investment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>伯克希尔的苹果投资</b></blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway first started to buy into Apple in 2016. At that time, Apple was trading at a completely different valuation compared to today:</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司于 2016 年首次开始收购苹果。当时，苹果的交易估值与今天完全不同：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14b39fa01fe2ec9423cdac40d8fb1684\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares traded for 10-14x net profits, and at 7-9x EBITDA - not at all comparable to the 30x net earnings multiple and 24x EBITDA multiple AAPL trades at today. In other words, Buffett has, as could be expected, identified Apple as a strong investment when it was very inexpensive - following his \"Value\" approach. Right now, however, Apple is far from a value pick and instead seems pretty pricey, especially when we account for its not very convincing near-term growth outlook - forecasted EPS growth over the next couple of years ranges from just 2%-8% (linked above).</p><p><blockquote>股票交易价格为净利润的 10-14 倍，EBITDA 为 7-9 倍，根本无法与 AAPL 今天交易的 30 倍净利润倍数和 24 倍 EBITDA 倍数相提并论。换句话说，正如人们所预料的那样，巴菲特在苹果非常便宜的时候就将其确定为一项强有力的投资——遵循他的“价值”方法。然而，目前苹果远非价值之选，反而显得相当昂贵，特别是当我们考虑到其不太令人信服的近期增长前景时——未来几年的每股收益预测增长率仅为 2%-8%（链接如上）。</blockquote></p><p> Per Berkshire's most recent 10-Q filing, the company held $128 billion worth of Apple stock on September 30:</p><p><blockquote>根据伯克希尔最新的 10-Q 文件，该公司截至 9 月 30 日持有价值 1280 亿美元的苹果股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09f96108345a43e1eda784e61ff7ee2e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BRK 10-Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：BRK 10-Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple's share price on that date was $142, from which we can infer that Berkshire held around 900 million shares of Apple at the end of the third quarter. Assuming that there were no sales and no buys since then, those same 900 million shares are worth around $154 billion at a current share price of $171 - at the recent peak of $182, the position had a value of $164 billion.</p><p><blockquote>苹果当天的股价为142美元，由此我们可以推断伯克希尔在第三季度末持有约9亿股苹果股票。假设此后没有出售或购买，那么按当前 171 美元的股价计算，这 9 亿股股票的价值约为 1,540 亿美元——在最近 182 美元的峰值时，该头寸的价值为 1,640 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What does Berkshire get out of that $154 billion investment right now? Based on Apple's dividend of $0.22 per share per quarter, Berkshire receives about $790 million a year in dividends - this sounds like quite a lot, but relative to the massive size of the investment, it's just a yield of ~0.5% - the same yield all other Apple shareholders get. On top of that, Berkshire also gets a portion of Apple's other profits, of course. Some of those are paid out via buybacks, which make for a theoretical pro-forma return of around $4.5 billion to Berkshire every year, based on Apple's trailing twelve-month buyback yield of 2.9% (per YCharts). Shareholder returns thus total a little more than $5 billion a year (Berkshire's portion), for a yield of slightly above 3% - still not too great, I believe. Of course, Apple can also generate profits that are not paid out to shareholders, but that are, instead, reinvested to grow the business, e.g. via R&amp;D spending or capital expenditures. In recent years, however, that was not an especially large portion - with an earnings yield of just above 3%, based on estimates for the current fiscal year, and with buybacks and dividends totaling 3.4%, Apple isn't actually retaining any earnings right now.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔现在从这1540亿美元的投资中得到了什么？根据苹果每季度每股 0.22 美元的股息计算，伯克希尔每年可获得约 7.9 亿美元的股息 - 这听起来很多，但相对于巨大的投资规模，收益率仅为约 0.5% - 所有其他苹果股东获得的收益率相同。除此之外，伯克希尔还获得了苹果其他利润的一部分。其中一些是通过回购支付的，根据苹果过去 12 个月 2.9% 的回购收益率（根据 YCharts）计算，每年为伯克希尔带来的理论备考回报约为 45 亿美元。因此，股东回报总额每年略高于 50 亿美元（伯克希尔的部分），收益率略高于 3%——我认为仍然不算太高。当然，苹果也可以产生不支付给股东的利润，而是再投资以发展业务，例如通过R&amp;D支出或资本支出。然而，近年来，这并不是一个特别大的部分——根据本财年的预测，市盈率略高于 3%，回购和股息总计 3.4%，苹果实际上并没有保留任何收益现在。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the shareholder return picture, or alternatively using the concept of \"look-through earnings\" - Berkshire's portion of Apple's profits - gets us to a relatively similar picture: Apple's earnings per share are forecasted at $5.70 during the current year - a 900 million share position thus generates theoretical profits of $5.1 billion for Apple. In both cases, whether we focus on actual shareholder returns or on the look-through profit concept, the return picture is comparable - Berkshire gets about $5 billion a year for a $150+ billion investment.</p><p><blockquote>看看股东回报率，或者使用“透视收益”的概念（伯克希尔哈撒韦公司在苹果利润中的份额），我们会看到一个相对相似的情况：苹果今年的每股收益预计为 5.70 美元——因此，9 亿股头寸为苹果带来了 51 亿美元的理论利润。在这两种情况下，无论我们关注实际股东回报还是透视利润概念，回报情况都是相当的——伯克希尔每年通过 1500 多亿美元的投资获得约 50 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This does, I believe, not generate an adequate return on investment, especially when we consider that the value of Berkshire's Apple investment could easily drop by tens of billions of dollars if Apple's valuation ever reverted back towards historical norms. A 20x earnings multiple for Apple, which would still be above the 10-year median earnings multiple (16, per YCharts), would see shares drop to ~$115, which would result in $52 billion in equity losses for Berkshire's AAPL position relative to how the position is valued today.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这并没有产生足够的投资回报，尤其是当我们考虑到如果苹果的估值恢复到历史常态，伯克希尔在苹果的投资价值可能会轻松下降数百亿美元时。苹果的 20 倍市盈率仍高于 10 年市盈率中位数（根据 YCharts 的数据为 16 倍），股价将跌至约 115 美元，这将导致伯克希尔的 AAPL 头寸遭受 520 亿美元的股权损失相对于该头寸目前的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Creating More Value For Shareholders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为股东创造更多价值</b></blockquote></p><p> If Apple is trading at a price that could justify locking in gains, this brings up an important question: What would Berkshire do with the proceeds if it were to sell its stake? I believe that there is a pretty good answer to that - they could use it to buy an excellent company trading at an inexpensive valuation. The company in question is one that management knows extremely well - it's Berkshire Hathaway.</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果的交易价格可以证明锁定收益是合理的，这就引出了一个重要问题：如果伯克希尔出售其股份，它将如何处理收益？我相信这个问题有一个很好的答案——他们可以用它来收购一家以低廉估值交易的优秀公司。这家公司是管理层非常了解的公司——伯克希尔哈撒韦公司。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway has been buying back its own shares at a considerable pace in recent quarters, which shows that management clearly likes the idea of buybacks, and that they deem BRK a good value at current prices - otherwise a great capital allocator, such as Warren Buffett, wouldn't spend billions on buybacks today:</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司最近几个季度一直在以相当快的速度回购自己的股票，这表明管理层显然喜欢回购的想法，并且他们认为 BRK 在当前价格下物有所值——否则像沃伦·巴菲特这样的伟大资本配置者今天不会花费数十亿美元进行回购：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/698ffef8c32981fa0d60f5e7a29f6726\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Berkshire has traded in the $280 to $300 range for more than half a year, and Berkshire has continued to spend billions of dollars on buybacks in that time frame, so it seems pretty obvious that Buffett sees Berkshire as an attractive value in that range. When we consider that Berkshire's book value has most likely risen in recent months, due to equity markets climbing and due to operating profits, BRK could be an even better deal today.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔的交易价格在 280 美元至 300 美元的范围内已经超过半年了，而且伯克希尔在这段时间内继续花费数十亿美元进行回购，因此巴菲特认为伯克希尔在该范围内具有吸引力的价值似乎非常明显。当我们考虑到由于股市攀升和营业利润，伯克希尔的账面价值很可能在最近几个月上升时，BRK 今天可能是一笔更好的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at what selling the Apple stake and using the proceeds for buybacks could do for Berkshire and its shareholders. The Apple stake is worth $154 billion, and as established earlier, Berkshire generates about $5 billion a year from that. Berkshire's operating businesses generated about&nbsp;$6.5 billion&nbsp;during the most recent quarter, or $26 billion a year (assuming no future growth). Berkshire's equity portfolio, excluding Apple, was worth $183 billion at the end of the third quarter. The S&amp;P 500(NYSEARCA:SPY)&nbsp;has risen by 6% since then, so let's assume that the equity portfolio, without the Apple stake, is worth around $190 billion today (4% growth to be conservative). Let's now look at two scenarios.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看出售苹果股份并将收益用于回购可以为伯克希尔及其股东带来什么。苹果的股份价值 1,540 亿美元，正如之前确定的那样，伯克希尔每年从中获得约 50 亿美元的收入。伯克希尔哈撒韦公司最近一个季度的运营业务创造了约 65 亿美元的收入，即每年 260 亿美元（假设未来没有增长）。截至第三季度末，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股票投资组合（不包括苹果）价值 1,830 亿美元。自那时以来，标普500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) 已上涨 6%，因此让我们假设股票投资组合（不包括苹果股份）今天的价值约为 1900 亿美元（保守来说增长 4%）。现在让我们看两个场景。</blockquote></p><p> In the first scenario, the Apple investment is held and we also assume that other equity investments, as well as the cash position, are held. When we further assume that other equities are fairly valued, we can subtract those from Berkshire's current market capitalization to \"net them out\".</p><p><blockquote>在第一种情况下，持有苹果投资，我们还假设持有其他股权投资以及现金头寸。当我们进一步假设其他股票估值合理时，我们可以从伯克希尔当前的市值中减去这些股票来“净化它们”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In that case, Berkshire, including its Apple stake, is valued at $311 billion today, once we adjust the $650 billion market capitalization for the $190 billion in non-Apple equities, and for the $149 billion in cash held at the end of the third quarter. Investors get $26 billion in operating earnings, and $5 billion in Apple earnings for that investment, which makes for a $31 billion total - Apple is thus, once we net out cash and non-Apple equities, trading at 10x current profits. In other words, investors get $13.70 in earnings per share from Apple in the form of operating profits and Apple earnings, and they get $150 per share in the form of cash and non-Apple equities held at Berkshire on top of that. Paying $288 for that seems like a pretty good deal, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，一旦我们将 6,500 亿美元的市值调整为 1,900 亿美元的非苹果股票和第三季度末持有的 1,490 亿美元现金，伯克希尔（包括其苹果股份）今天的估值为 3,110 亿美元。投资者从这项投资中获得了 260 亿美元的营业收入和 50 亿美元的苹果收入，总计 310 亿美元——因此，一旦我们扣除现金和非苹果股票，苹果的交易价格将是当前利润的 10 倍。换句话说，投资者以营业利润和苹果收益的形式从苹果获得每股13.70美元的收益，除此之外，他们还以现金和伯克希尔持有的非苹果股票的形式获得每股150美元。我相信，为它支付288美元似乎是一笔相当划算的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Things get way better in scenario 2, however, where Berkshire sells all of its 900 million shares in Apple and uses the proceeds to buy back $154 billion worth of BRK. This would reduce the share count by 535 million, from 2.26 billion to 1.73 billion. At $288 per share, Berkshire would then be valued at $497 billion. The company would still own $190 billion in non-Apple equities, and $149 billion in cash, but those would be distributed over a significantly lower share count of just 1.73 billion, which would lift the per-share value to $196. Berkshire would also still generate $26 billion in operating profits, but the $5 billion in Apple profits would have vanished. The $26 billion in operating profits, distributed over 1.73 billion shares, would total $15.03, however. We see that, if Berkshire were to sell all its Apple shares and use all of the proceeds to reduce its share count by 24%, its per-share value should rise dramatically. Not only would the value of its cash and non-Apple investments rise from $150 per share to $196 per share, but its operating earnings (including the look-through Apple earnings in scenario 1) would also rise from $13.70 to $15.03. If Apple were to trade at a similar operating earnings multiple of around 10 in scenario 2, its per share value would climb from $288 in scenario 1 to $346 in scenario 2 ($196 of non-Apple equities and cash, and $150 for its operating businesses), all else equal. If we assume that a 10x earnings multiple for Berkshire's operating businesses is too low, and that they should be valued at a higher multiple, the impact is even larger.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在情景 2 中，情况会好得多，伯克希尔出售其在苹果的全部 9 亿股股票，并用所得收益回购价值 1,540 亿美元的 BRK。这将使股票数量减少5.35亿股，从22.6亿股减少到17.3亿股。按每股 288 美元计算，伯克希尔的估值将达到 4970 亿美元。该公司仍将持有 1,900 亿美元的非苹果股票和 1,490 亿美元的现金，但这些资金将分配给仅 17.3 亿美元的少得多的股票，这将使每股价值提高到 196 美元。伯克希尔仍将产生 260 亿美元的营业利润，但苹果的 50 亿美元利润将消失。然而，260亿美元的营业利润分配给17.3亿股股票，总计15.03美元。我们看到，如果伯克希尔出售其所有苹果股票，并用所有收益将其股票数量减少 24%，其每股价值应该会大幅上升。不仅其现金和非苹果投资的价值将从每股 150 美元升至每股 196 美元，而且其营业收益（包括情景 1 中的透视苹果收益）也将从 13.70 美元升至 15.03 美元。如果苹果在情景 2 中的营业市盈率约为 10，其每股价值将从情景 1 中的 288 美元攀升至情景 2 中的 346 美元（非苹果股票和现金为 196 美元，运营业务为 150 美元），其他条件相同。如果我们假设伯克希尔运营业务的 10 倍市盈率太低，而它们的估值应该更高，那么影响就更大了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has been a great investment for Berkshire, but that does not mean that holding shares is the best idea. When Berkshire bought into AAPL, Apple was very inexpensive and out of favor. Today, Apple is pretty expensive, which makes it a way worse investment. At the same time, Berkshire itself is pretty inexpensive today, once we account for the Apple stake, other equity positions, and the large cash pile.</p><p><blockquote>苹果对伯克希尔来说是一项很好的投资，但这并不意味着持有股票是最好的主意。当伯克希尔收购苹果时，苹果非常便宜，不受欢迎。如今，苹果相当昂贵，这使得它成为一项更糟糕的投资。与此同时，如果我们考虑到苹果的股份、其他股权头寸和大量现金，伯克希尔本身今天相当便宜。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire has shown that they are willing to take advantage of the low valuation BRK trades at by buying back shares at a rapid pace. Monetizing the overvalued Apple stake in order to ramp up buybacks further could create significant value for Berkshire's shareholders, and it would, at the same time, reduce risks from both a valuation perspective and since management would use the money to invest into the company it knows best - Berkshire.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔已经表明，他们愿意通过快速回购股票来利用 BRK 的低估值。将被高估的苹果股份货币化以进一步加大回购力度，可以为伯克希尔的股东创造巨大价值，同时，从估值角度来看，也可以降低风险，因为管理层将用这笔钱投资于它最了解的公司——伯克希尔。</blockquote></p><p> Selling/monetizing the currently overvalued Apple stake and using the proceeds to buy up undervalued Berkshire shares would thus be a good idea that should generate considerable shareholder value, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我认为，出售/货币化目前被高估的苹果股份，并利用收益购买被低估的伯克希尔股票将是一个好主意，应该会产生可观的股东价值。</blockquote></p><p> This article was written by&nbsp;Jonathan Weber.</p><p><blockquote>本文由乔纳森·韦伯撰写。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Buffett Should Sell Berkshire's Apple Stake<blockquote>为什么巴菲特应该出售伯克希尔在苹果的股份</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Buffett Should Sell Berkshire's Apple Stake<blockquote>为什么巴菲特应该出售伯克希尔在苹果的股份</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-22 13:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a strong buy when Berkshire made its first investment. Today, things are very different - instead of cheap and out of favor, AAPL is very expensive.</li>  <li>Berkshire has shown that they are willing to capitalize on low BRK valuations by buying back shares when they are undervalued.</li>  <li>Selling overvalued AAPL and using the proceeds to buy undervalued BRK could generate significant shareholder value for Berkshire's investors, I believe.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c50b6ba612256ee64eedf00f7b274a61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Paul Morigi/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>当伯克希尔进行第一笔投资时，苹果一直是大力买入的股票。如今，情况已经大不相同了——AAPL 不再便宜且失宠，而是非常昂贵。</li><li>伯克希尔已经表明，他们愿意在 BRK 估值被低估时通过回购股票来利用较低的估值。</li><li>我相信，出售被高估的 AAPL 并用所得款项购买被低估的 BRK，可以为伯克希尔的投资者带来巨大的股东价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>保罗·莫里吉/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's (AAPL) shares are pretty expensive, and the company is entering a period of lower growth if analysts are correct. This means that it could be an opportune time for investors to sell shares to lock in gain - this also holds true for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B), which is a major shareholder. Berkshire could use the proceeds to ramp up its already healthy buybacks further, which would be immensely accretive at current valuations.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 (AAPL) 的股价相当昂贵，如果分析师正确的话，该公司正在进入一个增长放缓的时期。这意味着投资者可能是出售股票以锁定收益的好时机——主要股东伯克希尔哈撒韦公司 (BRK.A) (BRK.B) 也是如此。伯克希尔可以利用这笔收益进一步加大其本已健康的回购力度，以目前的估值计算，这将带来巨大的增值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Could Be Opportune To Lock In Gains In Apple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么锁定苹果收益是合适的</b></blockquote></p><p> Last week, I wrote a longer&nbsp;article on Apple&nbsp;and why I believe that shares are currently trading above fair value. The quick recap is that Apple is trading at the highest valuation in a long period of time, no matter whether we look at its earnings multiple, its EV to EBITDA ratio, or its cash flow yield. The EV/EBITDA multiple is most telling, I believe, as it accounts for changes in debt usage and in Apple's cash position over the years:</p><p><blockquote>上周，我写了一篇关于苹果以及为什么我认为股票交易目前高于公允价值的较长文章。快速回顾一下，无论我们查看其市盈率、EV 与 EBITDA 比率还是现金流收益率，苹果的交易估值都处于很长一段时间以来的最高水平。我认为，EV/EBITDA 倍数最能说明问题，因为它考虑了多年来债务使用和苹果现金状况的变化：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e6b5d51759ba11c78d02d04731e19a2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At easily more than twice the historical valuation, AAPL is pretty expensive. At the same time, Apple is entering a period of&nbsp;slower growth, according to the analyst community, since the iPhone and iPad lines are not generating significant business growth any longer, while the Apple Car is likely still years away. The combination of an above-average valuation and a below-average growth rate, combined with weaker tailwinds from buybacks (which are less effective at the current high valuation), means that Apple could be poised for underperformance going forward, which is why I believe that locking in gains could make a lot of sense.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 的估值轻松超过历史估值的两倍，相当昂贵。与此同时，分析师表示，苹果正在进入一个增长放缓的时期，因为 iPhone 和 iPad 产品线不再产生显着的业务增长，而苹果汽车可能还需要数年时间。高于平均水平的估值和低于平均水平的增长率，再加上回购带来的较弱推动力（在当前的高估值下效果较差），意味着苹果未来可能会出现表现不佳的情况，这就是为什么我相信锁定收益可能很有意义。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Berkshire's Apple Investment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>伯克希尔的苹果投资</b></blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway first started to buy into Apple in 2016. At that time, Apple was trading at a completely different valuation compared to today:</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司于 2016 年首次开始收购苹果。当时，苹果的交易估值与今天完全不同：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14b39fa01fe2ec9423cdac40d8fb1684\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares traded for 10-14x net profits, and at 7-9x EBITDA - not at all comparable to the 30x net earnings multiple and 24x EBITDA multiple AAPL trades at today. In other words, Buffett has, as could be expected, identified Apple as a strong investment when it was very inexpensive - following his \"Value\" approach. Right now, however, Apple is far from a value pick and instead seems pretty pricey, especially when we account for its not very convincing near-term growth outlook - forecasted EPS growth over the next couple of years ranges from just 2%-8% (linked above).</p><p><blockquote>股票交易价格为净利润的 10-14 倍，EBITDA 为 7-9 倍，根本无法与 AAPL 今天交易的 30 倍净利润倍数和 24 倍 EBITDA 倍数相提并论。换句话说，正如人们所预料的那样，巴菲特在苹果非常便宜的时候就将其确定为一项强有力的投资——遵循他的“价值”方法。然而，目前苹果远非价值之选，反而显得相当昂贵，特别是当我们考虑到其不太令人信服的近期增长前景时——未来几年的每股收益预测增长率仅为 2%-8%（链接如上）。</blockquote></p><p> Per Berkshire's most recent 10-Q filing, the company held $128 billion worth of Apple stock on September 30:</p><p><blockquote>根据伯克希尔最新的 10-Q 文件，该公司截至 9 月 30 日持有价值 1280 亿美元的苹果股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09f96108345a43e1eda784e61ff7ee2e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BRK 10-Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：BRK 10-Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple's share price on that date was $142, from which we can infer that Berkshire held around 900 million shares of Apple at the end of the third quarter. Assuming that there were no sales and no buys since then, those same 900 million shares are worth around $154 billion at a current share price of $171 - at the recent peak of $182, the position had a value of $164 billion.</p><p><blockquote>苹果当天的股价为142美元，由此我们可以推断伯克希尔在第三季度末持有约9亿股苹果股票。假设此后没有出售或购买，那么按当前 171 美元的股价计算，这 9 亿股股票的价值约为 1,540 亿美元——在最近 182 美元的峰值时，该头寸的价值为 1,640 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What does Berkshire get out of that $154 billion investment right now? Based on Apple's dividend of $0.22 per share per quarter, Berkshire receives about $790 million a year in dividends - this sounds like quite a lot, but relative to the massive size of the investment, it's just a yield of ~0.5% - the same yield all other Apple shareholders get. On top of that, Berkshire also gets a portion of Apple's other profits, of course. Some of those are paid out via buybacks, which make for a theoretical pro-forma return of around $4.5 billion to Berkshire every year, based on Apple's trailing twelve-month buyback yield of 2.9% (per YCharts). Shareholder returns thus total a little more than $5 billion a year (Berkshire's portion), for a yield of slightly above 3% - still not too great, I believe. Of course, Apple can also generate profits that are not paid out to shareholders, but that are, instead, reinvested to grow the business, e.g. via R&amp;D spending or capital expenditures. In recent years, however, that was not an especially large portion - with an earnings yield of just above 3%, based on estimates for the current fiscal year, and with buybacks and dividends totaling 3.4%, Apple isn't actually retaining any earnings right now.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔现在从这1540亿美元的投资中得到了什么？根据苹果每季度每股 0.22 美元的股息计算，伯克希尔每年可获得约 7.9 亿美元的股息 - 这听起来很多，但相对于巨大的投资规模，收益率仅为约 0.5% - 所有其他苹果股东获得的收益率相同。除此之外，伯克希尔还获得了苹果其他利润的一部分。其中一些是通过回购支付的，根据苹果过去 12 个月 2.9% 的回购收益率（根据 YCharts）计算，每年为伯克希尔带来的理论备考回报约为 45 亿美元。因此，股东回报总额每年略高于 50 亿美元（伯克希尔的部分），收益率略高于 3%——我认为仍然不算太高。当然，苹果也可以产生不支付给股东的利润，而是再投资以发展业务，例如通过R&amp;D支出或资本支出。然而，近年来，这并不是一个特别大的部分——根据本财年的预测，市盈率略高于 3%，回购和股息总计 3.4%，苹果实际上并没有保留任何收益现在。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the shareholder return picture, or alternatively using the concept of \"look-through earnings\" - Berkshire's portion of Apple's profits - gets us to a relatively similar picture: Apple's earnings per share are forecasted at $5.70 during the current year - a 900 million share position thus generates theoretical profits of $5.1 billion for Apple. In both cases, whether we focus on actual shareholder returns or on the look-through profit concept, the return picture is comparable - Berkshire gets about $5 billion a year for a $150+ billion investment.</p><p><blockquote>看看股东回报率，或者使用“透视收益”的概念（伯克希尔哈撒韦公司在苹果利润中的份额），我们会看到一个相对相似的情况：苹果今年的每股收益预计为 5.70 美元——因此，9 亿股头寸为苹果带来了 51 亿美元的理论利润。在这两种情况下，无论我们关注实际股东回报还是透视利润概念，回报情况都是相当的——伯克希尔每年通过 1500 多亿美元的投资获得约 50 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This does, I believe, not generate an adequate return on investment, especially when we consider that the value of Berkshire's Apple investment could easily drop by tens of billions of dollars if Apple's valuation ever reverted back towards historical norms. A 20x earnings multiple for Apple, which would still be above the 10-year median earnings multiple (16, per YCharts), would see shares drop to ~$115, which would result in $52 billion in equity losses for Berkshire's AAPL position relative to how the position is valued today.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这并没有产生足够的投资回报，尤其是当我们考虑到如果苹果的估值恢复到历史常态，伯克希尔在苹果的投资价值可能会轻松下降数百亿美元时。苹果的 20 倍市盈率仍高于 10 年市盈率中位数（根据 YCharts 的数据为 16 倍），股价将跌至约 115 美元，这将导致伯克希尔的 AAPL 头寸遭受 520 亿美元的股权损失相对于该头寸目前的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Creating More Value For Shareholders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为股东创造更多价值</b></blockquote></p><p> If Apple is trading at a price that could justify locking in gains, this brings up an important question: What would Berkshire do with the proceeds if it were to sell its stake? I believe that there is a pretty good answer to that - they could use it to buy an excellent company trading at an inexpensive valuation. The company in question is one that management knows extremely well - it's Berkshire Hathaway.</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果的交易价格可以证明锁定收益是合理的，这就引出了一个重要问题：如果伯克希尔出售其股份，它将如何处理收益？我相信这个问题有一个很好的答案——他们可以用它来收购一家以低廉估值交易的优秀公司。这家公司是管理层非常了解的公司——伯克希尔哈撒韦公司。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway has been buying back its own shares at a considerable pace in recent quarters, which shows that management clearly likes the idea of buybacks, and that they deem BRK a good value at current prices - otherwise a great capital allocator, such as Warren Buffett, wouldn't spend billions on buybacks today:</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司最近几个季度一直在以相当快的速度回购自己的股票，这表明管理层显然喜欢回购的想法，并且他们认为 BRK 在当前价格下物有所值——否则像沃伦·巴菲特这样的伟大资本配置者今天不会花费数十亿美元进行回购：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/698ffef8c32981fa0d60f5e7a29f6726\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Berkshire has traded in the $280 to $300 range for more than half a year, and Berkshire has continued to spend billions of dollars on buybacks in that time frame, so it seems pretty obvious that Buffett sees Berkshire as an attractive value in that range. When we consider that Berkshire's book value has most likely risen in recent months, due to equity markets climbing and due to operating profits, BRK could be an even better deal today.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔的交易价格在 280 美元至 300 美元的范围内已经超过半年了，而且伯克希尔在这段时间内继续花费数十亿美元进行回购，因此巴菲特认为伯克希尔在该范围内具有吸引力的价值似乎非常明显。当我们考虑到由于股市攀升和营业利润，伯克希尔的账面价值很可能在最近几个月上升时，BRK 今天可能是一笔更好的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at what selling the Apple stake and using the proceeds for buybacks could do for Berkshire and its shareholders. The Apple stake is worth $154 billion, and as established earlier, Berkshire generates about $5 billion a year from that. Berkshire's operating businesses generated about&nbsp;$6.5 billion&nbsp;during the most recent quarter, or $26 billion a year (assuming no future growth). Berkshire's equity portfolio, excluding Apple, was worth $183 billion at the end of the third quarter. The S&amp;P 500(NYSEARCA:SPY)&nbsp;has risen by 6% since then, so let's assume that the equity portfolio, without the Apple stake, is worth around $190 billion today (4% growth to be conservative). Let's now look at two scenarios.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看出售苹果股份并将收益用于回购可以为伯克希尔及其股东带来什么。苹果的股份价值 1,540 亿美元，正如之前确定的那样，伯克希尔每年从中获得约 50 亿美元的收入。伯克希尔哈撒韦公司最近一个季度的运营业务创造了约 65 亿美元的收入，即每年 260 亿美元（假设未来没有增长）。截至第三季度末，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股票投资组合（不包括苹果）价值 1,830 亿美元。自那时以来，标普500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) 已上涨 6%，因此让我们假设股票投资组合（不包括苹果股份）今天的价值约为 1900 亿美元（保守来说增长 4%）。现在让我们看两个场景。</blockquote></p><p> In the first scenario, the Apple investment is held and we also assume that other equity investments, as well as the cash position, are held. When we further assume that other equities are fairly valued, we can subtract those from Berkshire's current market capitalization to \"net them out\".</p><p><blockquote>在第一种情况下，持有苹果投资，我们还假设持有其他股权投资以及现金头寸。当我们进一步假设其他股票估值合理时，我们可以从伯克希尔当前的市值中减去这些股票来“净化它们”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In that case, Berkshire, including its Apple stake, is valued at $311 billion today, once we adjust the $650 billion market capitalization for the $190 billion in non-Apple equities, and for the $149 billion in cash held at the end of the third quarter. Investors get $26 billion in operating earnings, and $5 billion in Apple earnings for that investment, which makes for a $31 billion total - Apple is thus, once we net out cash and non-Apple equities, trading at 10x current profits. In other words, investors get $13.70 in earnings per share from Apple in the form of operating profits and Apple earnings, and they get $150 per share in the form of cash and non-Apple equities held at Berkshire on top of that. Paying $288 for that seems like a pretty good deal, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，一旦我们将 6,500 亿美元的市值调整为 1,900 亿美元的非苹果股票和第三季度末持有的 1,490 亿美元现金，伯克希尔（包括其苹果股份）今天的估值为 3,110 亿美元。投资者从这项投资中获得了 260 亿美元的营业收入和 50 亿美元的苹果收入，总计 310 亿美元——因此，一旦我们扣除现金和非苹果股票，苹果的交易价格将是当前利润的 10 倍。换句话说，投资者以营业利润和苹果收益的形式从苹果获得每股13.70美元的收益，除此之外，他们还以现金和伯克希尔持有的非苹果股票的形式获得每股150美元。我相信，为它支付288美元似乎是一笔相当划算的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Things get way better in scenario 2, however, where Berkshire sells all of its 900 million shares in Apple and uses the proceeds to buy back $154 billion worth of BRK. This would reduce the share count by 535 million, from 2.26 billion to 1.73 billion. At $288 per share, Berkshire would then be valued at $497 billion. The company would still own $190 billion in non-Apple equities, and $149 billion in cash, but those would be distributed over a significantly lower share count of just 1.73 billion, which would lift the per-share value to $196. Berkshire would also still generate $26 billion in operating profits, but the $5 billion in Apple profits would have vanished. The $26 billion in operating profits, distributed over 1.73 billion shares, would total $15.03, however. We see that, if Berkshire were to sell all its Apple shares and use all of the proceeds to reduce its share count by 24%, its per-share value should rise dramatically. Not only would the value of its cash and non-Apple investments rise from $150 per share to $196 per share, but its operating earnings (including the look-through Apple earnings in scenario 1) would also rise from $13.70 to $15.03. If Apple were to trade at a similar operating earnings multiple of around 10 in scenario 2, its per share value would climb from $288 in scenario 1 to $346 in scenario 2 ($196 of non-Apple equities and cash, and $150 for its operating businesses), all else equal. If we assume that a 10x earnings multiple for Berkshire's operating businesses is too low, and that they should be valued at a higher multiple, the impact is even larger.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在情景 2 中，情况会好得多，伯克希尔出售其在苹果的全部 9 亿股股票，并用所得收益回购价值 1,540 亿美元的 BRK。这将使股票数量减少5.35亿股，从22.6亿股减少到17.3亿股。按每股 288 美元计算，伯克希尔的估值将达到 4970 亿美元。该公司仍将持有 1,900 亿美元的非苹果股票和 1,490 亿美元的现金，但这些资金将分配给仅 17.3 亿美元的少得多的股票，这将使每股价值提高到 196 美元。伯克希尔仍将产生 260 亿美元的营业利润，但苹果的 50 亿美元利润将消失。然而，260亿美元的营业利润分配给17.3亿股股票，总计15.03美元。我们看到，如果伯克希尔出售其所有苹果股票，并用所有收益将其股票数量减少 24%，其每股价值应该会大幅上升。不仅其现金和非苹果投资的价值将从每股 150 美元升至每股 196 美元，而且其营业收益（包括情景 1 中的透视苹果收益）也将从 13.70 美元升至 15.03 美元。如果苹果在情景 2 中的营业市盈率约为 10，其每股价值将从情景 1 中的 288 美元攀升至情景 2 中的 346 美元（非苹果股票和现金为 196 美元，运营业务为 150 美元），其他条件相同。如果我们假设伯克希尔运营业务的 10 倍市盈率太低，而它们的估值应该更高，那么影响就更大了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has been a great investment for Berkshire, but that does not mean that holding shares is the best idea. When Berkshire bought into AAPL, Apple was very inexpensive and out of favor. Today, Apple is pretty expensive, which makes it a way worse investment. At the same time, Berkshire itself is pretty inexpensive today, once we account for the Apple stake, other equity positions, and the large cash pile.</p><p><blockquote>苹果对伯克希尔来说是一项很好的投资，但这并不意味着持有股票是最好的主意。当伯克希尔收购苹果时，苹果非常便宜，不受欢迎。如今，苹果相当昂贵，这使得它成为一项更糟糕的投资。与此同时，如果我们考虑到苹果的股份、其他股权头寸和大量现金，伯克希尔本身今天相当便宜。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire has shown that they are willing to take advantage of the low valuation BRK trades at by buying back shares at a rapid pace. Monetizing the overvalued Apple stake in order to ramp up buybacks further could create significant value for Berkshire's shareholders, and it would, at the same time, reduce risks from both a valuation perspective and since management would use the money to invest into the company it knows best - Berkshire.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔已经表明，他们愿意通过快速回购股票来利用 BRK 的低估值。将被高估的苹果股份货币化以进一步加大回购力度，可以为伯克希尔的股东创造巨大价值，同时，从估值角度来看，也可以降低风险，因为管理层将用这笔钱投资于它最了解的公司——伯克希尔。</blockquote></p><p> Selling/monetizing the currently overvalued Apple stake and using the proceeds to buy up undervalued Berkshire shares would thus be a good idea that should generate considerable shareholder value, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我认为，出售/货币化目前被高估的苹果股份，并利用收益购买被低估的伯克希尔股票将是一个好主意，应该会产生可观的股东价值。</blockquote></p><p> This article was written by&nbsp;Jonathan Weber.</p><p><blockquote>本文由乔纳森·韦伯撰写。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476181-why-buffett-should-sell-berkshires-apple-stake\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","AAPL":"苹果","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476181-why-buffett-should-sell-berkshires-apple-stake","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101145405","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a strong buy when Berkshire made its first investment. Today, things are very different - instead of cheap and out of favor, AAPL is very expensive.\nBerkshire has shown that they are willing to capitalize on low BRK valuations by buying back shares when they are undervalued.\nSelling overvalued AAPL and using the proceeds to buy undervalued BRK could generate significant shareholder value for Berkshire's investors, I believe.\n\nPaul Morigi/Getty Images Entertainment\nArticle Thesis\nApple's (AAPL) shares are pretty expensive, and the company is entering a period of lower growth if analysts are correct. This means that it could be an opportune time for investors to sell shares to lock in gain - this also holds true for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B), which is a major shareholder. Berkshire could use the proceeds to ramp up its already healthy buybacks further, which would be immensely accretive at current valuations.\nWhy It Could Be Opportune To Lock In Gains In Apple\nLast week, I wrote a longer article on Apple and why I believe that shares are currently trading above fair value. The quick recap is that Apple is trading at the highest valuation in a long period of time, no matter whether we look at its earnings multiple, its EV to EBITDA ratio, or its cash flow yield. The EV/EBITDA multiple is most telling, I believe, as it accounts for changes in debt usage and in Apple's cash position over the years:\nData by YCharts\nAt easily more than twice the historical valuation, AAPL is pretty expensive. At the same time, Apple is entering a period of slower growth, according to the analyst community, since the iPhone and iPad lines are not generating significant business growth any longer, while the Apple Car is likely still years away. The combination of an above-average valuation and a below-average growth rate, combined with weaker tailwinds from buybacks (which are less effective at the current high valuation), means that Apple could be poised for underperformance going forward, which is why I believe that locking in gains could make a lot of sense.\nBerkshire's Apple Investment\nBerkshire Hathaway first started to buy into Apple in 2016. At that time, Apple was trading at a completely different valuation compared to today:\nData by YCharts\nShares traded for 10-14x net profits, and at 7-9x EBITDA - not at all comparable to the 30x net earnings multiple and 24x EBITDA multiple AAPL trades at today. In other words, Buffett has, as could be expected, identified Apple as a strong investment when it was very inexpensive - following his \"Value\" approach. Right now, however, Apple is far from a value pick and instead seems pretty pricey, especially when we account for its not very convincing near-term growth outlook - forecasted EPS growth over the next couple of years ranges from just 2%-8% (linked above).\nPer Berkshire's most recent 10-Q filing, the company held $128 billion worth of Apple stock on September 30:\nSource: BRK 10-Q\nApple's share price on that date was $142, from which we can infer that Berkshire held around 900 million shares of Apple at the end of the third quarter. Assuming that there were no sales and no buys since then, those same 900 million shares are worth around $154 billion at a current share price of $171 - at the recent peak of $182, the position had a value of $164 billion.\nWhat does Berkshire get out of that $154 billion investment right now? Based on Apple's dividend of $0.22 per share per quarter, Berkshire receives about $790 million a year in dividends - this sounds like quite a lot, but relative to the massive size of the investment, it's just a yield of ~0.5% - the same yield all other Apple shareholders get. On top of that, Berkshire also gets a portion of Apple's other profits, of course. Some of those are paid out via buybacks, which make for a theoretical pro-forma return of around $4.5 billion to Berkshire every year, based on Apple's trailing twelve-month buyback yield of 2.9% (per YCharts). Shareholder returns thus total a little more than $5 billion a year (Berkshire's portion), for a yield of slightly above 3% - still not too great, I believe. Of course, Apple can also generate profits that are not paid out to shareholders, but that are, instead, reinvested to grow the business, e.g. via R&D spending or capital expenditures. In recent years, however, that was not an especially large portion - with an earnings yield of just above 3%, based on estimates for the current fiscal year, and with buybacks and dividends totaling 3.4%, Apple isn't actually retaining any earnings right now.\nLooking at the shareholder return picture, or alternatively using the concept of \"look-through earnings\" - Berkshire's portion of Apple's profits - gets us to a relatively similar picture: Apple's earnings per share are forecasted at $5.70 during the current year - a 900 million share position thus generates theoretical profits of $5.1 billion for Apple. In both cases, whether we focus on actual shareholder returns or on the look-through profit concept, the return picture is comparable - Berkshire gets about $5 billion a year for a $150+ billion investment.\nThis does, I believe, not generate an adequate return on investment, especially when we consider that the value of Berkshire's Apple investment could easily drop by tens of billions of dollars if Apple's valuation ever reverted back towards historical norms. A 20x earnings multiple for Apple, which would still be above the 10-year median earnings multiple (16, per YCharts), would see shares drop to ~$115, which would result in $52 billion in equity losses for Berkshire's AAPL position relative to how the position is valued today.\nCreating More Value For Shareholders\nIf Apple is trading at a price that could justify locking in gains, this brings up an important question: What would Berkshire do with the proceeds if it were to sell its stake? I believe that there is a pretty good answer to that - they could use it to buy an excellent company trading at an inexpensive valuation. The company in question is one that management knows extremely well - it's Berkshire Hathaway.\nBerkshire Hathaway has been buying back its own shares at a considerable pace in recent quarters, which shows that management clearly likes the idea of buybacks, and that they deem BRK a good value at current prices - otherwise a great capital allocator, such as Warren Buffett, wouldn't spend billions on buybacks today:\nData by YCharts\nBerkshire has traded in the $280 to $300 range for more than half a year, and Berkshire has continued to spend billions of dollars on buybacks in that time frame, so it seems pretty obvious that Buffett sees Berkshire as an attractive value in that range. When we consider that Berkshire's book value has most likely risen in recent months, due to equity markets climbing and due to operating profits, BRK could be an even better deal today.\nLet's look at what selling the Apple stake and using the proceeds for buybacks could do for Berkshire and its shareholders. The Apple stake is worth $154 billion, and as established earlier, Berkshire generates about $5 billion a year from that. Berkshire's operating businesses generated about $6.5 billion during the most recent quarter, or $26 billion a year (assuming no future growth). Berkshire's equity portfolio, excluding Apple, was worth $183 billion at the end of the third quarter. The S&P 500(NYSEARCA:SPY) has risen by 6% since then, so let's assume that the equity portfolio, without the Apple stake, is worth around $190 billion today (4% growth to be conservative). Let's now look at two scenarios.\nIn the first scenario, the Apple investment is held and we also assume that other equity investments, as well as the cash position, are held. When we further assume that other equities are fairly valued, we can subtract those from Berkshire's current market capitalization to \"net them out\".\nIn that case, Berkshire, including its Apple stake, is valued at $311 billion today, once we adjust the $650 billion market capitalization for the $190 billion in non-Apple equities, and for the $149 billion in cash held at the end of the third quarter. Investors get $26 billion in operating earnings, and $5 billion in Apple earnings for that investment, which makes for a $31 billion total - Apple is thus, once we net out cash and non-Apple equities, trading at 10x current profits. In other words, investors get $13.70 in earnings per share from Apple in the form of operating profits and Apple earnings, and they get $150 per share in the form of cash and non-Apple equities held at Berkshire on top of that. Paying $288 for that seems like a pretty good deal, I believe.\nThings get way better in scenario 2, however, where Berkshire sells all of its 900 million shares in Apple and uses the proceeds to buy back $154 billion worth of BRK. This would reduce the share count by 535 million, from 2.26 billion to 1.73 billion. At $288 per share, Berkshire would then be valued at $497 billion. The company would still own $190 billion in non-Apple equities, and $149 billion in cash, but those would be distributed over a significantly lower share count of just 1.73 billion, which would lift the per-share value to $196. Berkshire would also still generate $26 billion in operating profits, but the $5 billion in Apple profits would have vanished. The $26 billion in operating profits, distributed over 1.73 billion shares, would total $15.03, however. We see that, if Berkshire were to sell all its Apple shares and use all of the proceeds to reduce its share count by 24%, its per-share value should rise dramatically. Not only would the value of its cash and non-Apple investments rise from $150 per share to $196 per share, but its operating earnings (including the look-through Apple earnings in scenario 1) would also rise from $13.70 to $15.03. If Apple were to trade at a similar operating earnings multiple of around 10 in scenario 2, its per share value would climb from $288 in scenario 1 to $346 in scenario 2 ($196 of non-Apple equities and cash, and $150 for its operating businesses), all else equal. If we assume that a 10x earnings multiple for Berkshire's operating businesses is too low, and that they should be valued at a higher multiple, the impact is even larger.\nTakeaway\nApple has been a great investment for Berkshire, but that does not mean that holding shares is the best idea. When Berkshire bought into AAPL, Apple was very inexpensive and out of favor. Today, Apple is pretty expensive, which makes it a way worse investment. At the same time, Berkshire itself is pretty inexpensive today, once we account for the Apple stake, other equity positions, and the large cash pile.\nBerkshire has shown that they are willing to take advantage of the low valuation BRK trades at by buying back shares at a rapid pace. Monetizing the overvalued Apple stake in order to ramp up buybacks further could create significant value for Berkshire's shareholders, and it would, at the same time, reduce risks from both a valuation perspective and since management would use the money to invest into the company it knows best - Berkshire.\nSelling/monetizing the currently overvalued Apple stake and using the proceeds to buy up undervalued Berkshire shares would thus be a good idea that should generate considerable shareholder value, I believe.\nThis article was written by Jonathan Weber.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699219346,"gmtCreate":1639807137118,"gmtModify":1639807138119,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"A force to reckon&nbsp;","listText":"A force to reckon&nbsp;","text":"A force to reckon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699219346","repostId":"1122651573","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122651573","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639800058,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1122651573?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-18 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Unstoppable Stock to Buy Before 2022<blockquote>2022 年之前值得购买的 1 只势不可挡的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122651573","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Salesforce.com is one of the largest enterprise software companies, and it's led the customer relati","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\"><b>Salesforce.com</b></a>&nbsp;is one of the largest enterprise software companies, and it's led the customer relationship management (CRM) industry for eight consecutive years. As businesses continue to struggle with macroeconomic headwinds related labor shortages and supply chain disruptions, staying on good terms with customers will be crucial.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\"><b>销售力量网站</b></a>是最大的企业软件公司之一，连续八年引领客户关系管理（CRM）行业。随着企业继续与劳动力短缺和供应链中断相关的宏观经济逆风作斗争，与客户保持良好关系将至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> It also includes tools for analytics, data integration, low-code application development. So it really is this end-to-end solution. The goal is to give businesses the tools they need to attract leads, convert those leads into paying customers, and then build lasting relationships with those customers.</p><p><blockquote>它还包括用于分析、数据集成、低代码应用程序开发的工具。所以这真的是端到端解决方案。目标是为企业提供吸引潜在客户所需的工具，将这些潜在客户转化为付费客户，然后与这些客户建立持久的关系。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Salesforce has this platform called Einstein, which is essentially an artificial intelligence layer that supercharges all of its other applications. For instance, Einstein help sales agents forecast conversion rates and prioritize the most promising leads, so it drives efficiency there. It helps commerce teams personalize the buyer experience and make relevant product recommendations on an e-commerce storefront. And I think that capacity for innovation is one of Salesforce's strongest assets.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Salesforce还有一个名为Einstein的平台，它本质上是一个人工智能层，可以增强其所有其他应用程序。例如，爱因斯坦帮助销售代理预测转化率并优先考虑最有前途的销售线索，因此它提高了那里的效率。它帮助商务团队个性化买家体验，并在电子商务店面上做出相关的产品推荐。我认为创新能力是 Salesforce 最强大的资产之一。</blockquote></p><p> They were a pioneer in modern CRM. They were one of the first companies to deliver software from the cloud. They jumped on artificial intelligence quickly. Their platform even supports blockchain technology. They continue to stay at the cutting edge of these technologies. I think that's important. I mentioned in an earlier question, the CEO, Marc Benioff, he founded the company back in 1999. This would be a company where if Marc Benioff suddenly left, I would be concerned about Salesforce. If you were watching<i>Beat and Raise</i>show in the previous hour, the company actually named Bret Taylor a co-CEO. He will be working alongside Marc Benioff, and I think that's a great succession plan. Brian Withers and I were talking about that. It's good to see the company planning for the future.</p><p><blockquote>他们是现代客户关系管理的先驱。他们是首批从云交付软件的公司之一。他们很快就投身于人工智能。他们的平台甚至支持区块链技术。他们继续处于这些技术的前沿。我觉得这很重要。我在之前的问题中提到过，首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫 (Marc Benioff) 于 1999 年创立了公司。如果马克·贝尼奥夫突然离开，我会担心 Salesforce。如果你在看<i>拍打和举起</i>在前一个小时的节目中，该公司实际上任命布雷特·泰勒为联合首席执行官。他将与马克·贝尼奥夫一起工作，我认为这是一个伟大的继任计划。布莱恩·威瑟斯和我正在谈论这件事。很高兴看到公司为未来做规划。</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons I really like Salesforce, and I think they could do well during the holiday season, is that their software is relevant across virtually every industry. Building those customer relationships is important no matter of what you're selling or what industry you're in. Maintaining a strong relationship with your customers is important. I think -- given the current macroeconomic headwinds with supply chain difficulties, and labor shortages, and inflation, all of those things that may be headwinds for consumers -- I think maintaining those relationships is even more important than it normally is. And Salesforce is the clear leader here. The company has 19.5% market share in the CRM space. That is more than the next four competitors combined. Just a real dominant company.</p><p><blockquote>我非常喜欢Salesforce的原因之一，我认为他们在假期会做得很好，是他们的软件几乎与每个行业都相关。无论你卖什么，或者你从事什么行业，建立这些客户关系都很重要。与客户保持牢固的关系很重要。我认为——考虑到当前的宏观经济逆风，包括供应链困难、劳动力短缺和通货膨胀，所有这些可能对消费者来说是不利因素——我认为维持这些关系比平时更重要。Salesforce 显然是这里的领导者。该公司在CRM领域拥有19.5%的市场份额。这比接下来四个竞争对手的总和还要多。只是一家真正占主导地位的公司。</blockquote></p><p> I mentioned they have that innovative, founder-led management team. This is another company with a strong workplace culture. If you look at Glassdoor, 89% of employees would recommend the company to a friend, 96% approve of the CEO, Marc Benioff. I think that speaks very highly of the type of workplace environment they've created.</p><p><blockquote>我提到他们有创始人领导的创新管理团队。这是另一家拥有浓厚职场文化的公司。如果你看看Glassdoor，89%的员工会向朋友推荐该公司，96%的员工会认可首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫。我认为这充分说明了他们创造的工作场所环境。</blockquote></p><p> The financial performance is consistently impressive. Over the past year -- this is through the second quarter, this does not include the results that Salesforce just released two hours ago --. but through the second quarter, the company's revenue was $23.5 billion, up 21%. They generated $5.5 billion in free cash flow; that was up 57%.</p><p><blockquote>财务业绩一直令人印象深刻。在过去的一年里——这是第二季度，这还不包括 Salesforce 两小时前刚刚发布的业绩。但截至第二季度，该公司营收为235亿美元，增长21%。他们产生了55亿美元的自由现金流；增长了 57%。</blockquote></p><p> Just to cap all that, Salesforce is, in terms of enterprise software companies, it is the fastest-growing enterprise software company in history. It was the first to reach $5 billion&nbsp; in annualized revenue. It was the first to reach $10 billion. It recently became the first to reach $20 billion, and Benioff has said the company will reach $50 billion, I believe, by 2026. If that happens on that timeline, it will also be the first company to achieve that milestone. It will be the fastest company to achieve that milestone. An enormous company, but I still think there's plenty of potential here for shareholders, and I certainly think the holiday season could be a short-term catalyst.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，就企业软件公司而言，Salesforce 是历史上发展最快的企业软件公司。它是第一个年化收入达到50亿美元的公司。它是第一个达到100亿美元的。它最近成为第一个达到200亿美元的公司，贝尼奥夫表示，我相信，到2026年，该公司将达到500亿美元。如果这种情况发生在该时间表上，它也将是第一家实现这一里程碑的公司。它将是最快实现这一里程碑的公司。这是一家巨大的公司，但我仍然认为这里对股东来说有很大的潜力，我当然认为假期可能是一个短期催化剂。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Unstoppable Stock to Buy Before 2022<blockquote>2022 年之前值得购买的 1 只势不可挡的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Unstoppable Stock to Buy Before 2022<blockquote>2022 年之前值得购买的 1 只势不可挡的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-18 12:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\"><b>Salesforce.com</b></a>&nbsp;is one of the largest enterprise software companies, and it's led the customer relationship management (CRM) industry for eight consecutive years. As businesses continue to struggle with macroeconomic headwinds related labor shortages and supply chain disruptions, staying on good terms with customers will be crucial.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\"><b>销售力量网站</b></a>是最大的企业软件公司之一，连续八年引领客户关系管理（CRM）行业。随着企业继续与劳动力短缺和供应链中断相关的宏观经济逆风作斗争，与客户保持良好关系将至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> It also includes tools for analytics, data integration, low-code application development. So it really is this end-to-end solution. The goal is to give businesses the tools they need to attract leads, convert those leads into paying customers, and then build lasting relationships with those customers.</p><p><blockquote>它还包括用于分析、数据集成、低代码应用程序开发的工具。所以这真的是端到端解决方案。目标是为企业提供吸引潜在客户所需的工具，将这些潜在客户转化为付费客户，然后与这些客户建立持久的关系。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Salesforce has this platform called Einstein, which is essentially an artificial intelligence layer that supercharges all of its other applications. For instance, Einstein help sales agents forecast conversion rates and prioritize the most promising leads, so it drives efficiency there. It helps commerce teams personalize the buyer experience and make relevant product recommendations on an e-commerce storefront. And I think that capacity for innovation is one of Salesforce's strongest assets.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Salesforce还有一个名为Einstein的平台，它本质上是一个人工智能层，可以增强其所有其他应用程序。例如，爱因斯坦帮助销售代理预测转化率并优先考虑最有前途的销售线索，因此它提高了那里的效率。它帮助商务团队个性化买家体验，并在电子商务店面上做出相关的产品推荐。我认为创新能力是 Salesforce 最强大的资产之一。</blockquote></p><p> They were a pioneer in modern CRM. They were one of the first companies to deliver software from the cloud. They jumped on artificial intelligence quickly. Their platform even supports blockchain technology. They continue to stay at the cutting edge of these technologies. I think that's important. I mentioned in an earlier question, the CEO, Marc Benioff, he founded the company back in 1999. This would be a company where if Marc Benioff suddenly left, I would be concerned about Salesforce. If you were watching<i>Beat and Raise</i>show in the previous hour, the company actually named Bret Taylor a co-CEO. He will be working alongside Marc Benioff, and I think that's a great succession plan. Brian Withers and I were talking about that. It's good to see the company planning for the future.</p><p><blockquote>他们是现代客户关系管理的先驱。他们是首批从云交付软件的公司之一。他们很快就投身于人工智能。他们的平台甚至支持区块链技术。他们继续处于这些技术的前沿。我觉得这很重要。我在之前的问题中提到过，首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫 (Marc Benioff) 于 1999 年创立了公司。如果马克·贝尼奥夫突然离开，我会担心 Salesforce。如果你在看<i>拍打和举起</i>在前一个小时的节目中，该公司实际上任命布雷特·泰勒为联合首席执行官。他将与马克·贝尼奥夫一起工作，我认为这是一个伟大的继任计划。布莱恩·威瑟斯和我正在谈论这件事。很高兴看到公司为未来做规划。</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons I really like Salesforce, and I think they could do well during the holiday season, is that their software is relevant across virtually every industry. Building those customer relationships is important no matter of what you're selling or what industry you're in. Maintaining a strong relationship with your customers is important. I think -- given the current macroeconomic headwinds with supply chain difficulties, and labor shortages, and inflation, all of those things that may be headwinds for consumers -- I think maintaining those relationships is even more important than it normally is. And Salesforce is the clear leader here. The company has 19.5% market share in the CRM space. That is more than the next four competitors combined. Just a real dominant company.</p><p><blockquote>我非常喜欢Salesforce的原因之一，我认为他们在假期会做得很好，是他们的软件几乎与每个行业都相关。无论你卖什么，或者你从事什么行业，建立这些客户关系都很重要。与客户保持牢固的关系很重要。我认为——考虑到当前的宏观经济逆风，包括供应链困难、劳动力短缺和通货膨胀，所有这些可能对消费者来说是不利因素——我认为维持这些关系比平时更重要。Salesforce 显然是这里的领导者。该公司在CRM领域拥有19.5%的市场份额。这比接下来四个竞争对手的总和还要多。只是一家真正占主导地位的公司。</blockquote></p><p> I mentioned they have that innovative, founder-led management team. This is another company with a strong workplace culture. If you look at Glassdoor, 89% of employees would recommend the company to a friend, 96% approve of the CEO, Marc Benioff. I think that speaks very highly of the type of workplace environment they've created.</p><p><blockquote>我提到他们有创始人领导的创新管理团队。这是另一家拥有浓厚职场文化的公司。如果你看看Glassdoor，89%的员工会向朋友推荐该公司，96%的员工会认可首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫。我认为这充分说明了他们创造的工作场所环境。</blockquote></p><p> The financial performance is consistently impressive. Over the past year -- this is through the second quarter, this does not include the results that Salesforce just released two hours ago --. but through the second quarter, the company's revenue was $23.5 billion, up 21%. They generated $5.5 billion in free cash flow; that was up 57%.</p><p><blockquote>财务业绩一直令人印象深刻。在过去的一年里——这是第二季度，这还不包括 Salesforce 两小时前刚刚发布的业绩。但截至第二季度，该公司营收为235亿美元，增长21%。他们产生了55亿美元的自由现金流；增长了 57%。</blockquote></p><p> Just to cap all that, Salesforce is, in terms of enterprise software companies, it is the fastest-growing enterprise software company in history. It was the first to reach $5 billion&nbsp; in annualized revenue. It was the first to reach $10 billion. It recently became the first to reach $20 billion, and Benioff has said the company will reach $50 billion, I believe, by 2026. If that happens on that timeline, it will also be the first company to achieve that milestone. It will be the fastest company to achieve that milestone. An enormous company, but I still think there's plenty of potential here for shareholders, and I certainly think the holiday season could be a short-term catalyst.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，就企业软件公司而言，Salesforce 是历史上发展最快的企业软件公司。它是第一个年化收入达到50亿美元的公司。它是第一个达到100亿美元的。它最近成为第一个达到200亿美元的公司，贝尼奥夫表示，我相信，到2026年，该公司将达到500亿美元。如果这种情况发生在该时间表上，它也将是第一家实现这一里程碑的公司。它将是最快实现这一里程碑的公司。这是一家巨大的公司，但我仍然认为这里对股东来说有很大的潜力，我当然认为假期可能是一个短期催化剂。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/17/1-unstoppable-stock-to-buy-before-2022/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRM":"赛富时"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/17/1-unstoppable-stock-to-buy-before-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122651573","content_text":"Salesforce.com is one of the largest enterprise software companies, and it's led the customer relationship management (CRM) industry for eight consecutive years. As businesses continue to struggle with macroeconomic headwinds related labor shortages and supply chain disruptions, staying on good terms with customers will be crucial.\nIt also includes tools for analytics, data integration, low-code application development. So it really is this end-to-end solution. The goal is to give businesses the tools they need to attract leads, convert those leads into paying customers, and then build lasting relationships with those customers.\nAdditionally, Salesforce has this platform called Einstein, which is essentially an artificial intelligence layer that supercharges all of its other applications. For instance, Einstein help sales agents forecast conversion rates and prioritize the most promising leads, so it drives efficiency there. It helps commerce teams personalize the buyer experience and make relevant product recommendations on an e-commerce storefront. And I think that capacity for innovation is one of Salesforce's strongest assets.\nThey were a pioneer in modern CRM. They were one of the first companies to deliver software from the cloud. They jumped on artificial intelligence quickly. Their platform even supports blockchain technology. They continue to stay at the cutting edge of these technologies. I think that's important. I mentioned in an earlier question, the CEO, Marc Benioff, he founded the company back in 1999. This would be a company where if Marc Benioff suddenly left, I would be concerned about Salesforce. If you were watchingBeat and Raiseshow in the previous hour, the company actually named Bret Taylor a co-CEO. He will be working alongside Marc Benioff, and I think that's a great succession plan. Brian Withers and I were talking about that. It's good to see the company planning for the future.\nOne of the reasons I really like Salesforce, and I think they could do well during the holiday season, is that their software is relevant across virtually every industry. Building those customer relationships is important no matter of what you're selling or what industry you're in. Maintaining a strong relationship with your customers is important. I think -- given the current macroeconomic headwinds with supply chain difficulties, and labor shortages, and inflation, all of those things that may be headwinds for consumers -- I think maintaining those relationships is even more important than it normally is. And Salesforce is the clear leader here. The company has 19.5% market share in the CRM space. That is more than the next four competitors combined. Just a real dominant company.\nI mentioned they have that innovative, founder-led management team. This is another company with a strong workplace culture. If you look at Glassdoor, 89% of employees would recommend the company to a friend, 96% approve of the CEO, Marc Benioff. I think that speaks very highly of the type of workplace environment they've created.\nThe financial performance is consistently impressive. Over the past year -- this is through the second quarter, this does not include the results that Salesforce just released two hours ago --. but through the second quarter, the company's revenue was $23.5 billion, up 21%. They generated $5.5 billion in free cash flow; that was up 57%.\nJust to cap all that, Salesforce is, in terms of enterprise software companies, it is the fastest-growing enterprise software company in history. It was the first to reach $5 billion  in annualized revenue. It was the first to reach $10 billion. It recently became the first to reach $20 billion, and Benioff has said the company will reach $50 billion, I believe, by 2026. If that happens on that timeline, it will also be the first company to achieve that milestone. It will be the fastest company to achieve that milestone. An enormous company, but I still think there's plenty of potential here for shareholders, and I certainly think the holiday season could be a short-term catalyst.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699210100,"gmtCreate":1639806733653,"gmtModify":1639806734628,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The golden quest, separating winners from losers. It's a mix of science, art and a bit of luck.&nbsp;","listText":"The golden quest, separating winners from losers. It's a mix of science, art and a bit of luck.&nbsp;","text":"The golden quest, separating winners from losers. It's a mix of science, art and a bit of luck.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699210100","repostId":"1161245886","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161245886","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639806035,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1161245886?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-18 13:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wedbush's Dan Ives: Don't throw in the towel on tech<blockquote>韦德布什的丹·艾夫斯：不要放弃科技</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161245886","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Wedbush Securities managing director Dan Ives advised investors to stick with technology stocks despite the potential valuation crunch that could happen as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.\"This is not the time to throw in the white towel on tech,\" he told CNBC on Friday.Calling the current era \"a fourth industrial revolution,\" Ives backed such stocks as $CyberArk Software $, $Palo Alto Networks $, $Zscaler $, $NVIDIA $ and $Apple $.\"This is an opportunity, not the start of a downtrend ","content":"<p>Wedbush Securities managing director Dan Ives advised investors to stick with technology stocks despite the potential valuation crunch that could happen as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什证券董事总经理丹·艾夫斯建议投资者坚持投资科技股，尽管美联储加息可能会出现潜在的估值紧缩。</blockquote></p><p> \"This is not the time to throw in the white towel on tech,\" he told CNBC on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“现在不是放弃科技的时候，”他周五对 CNBC 表示。</blockquote></p><p> Calling the current era \"a fourth industrial revolution,\" Ives backed such stocks as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CYBR\">CyberArk Software </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZS\">Zscaler </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA </a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple </a>.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯将当前时代称为“第四次工业革命”，他支持以下股票：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CYBR\">赛博方舟软件</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">帕洛阿尔托网络</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZS\">缩放器</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>.</blockquote></p><p> \"This is an opportunity, not the start of a downtrend for tech,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“这是一个机会，而不是科技下行趋势的开始，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Ives argued that a large number of tech names will see significant growth in coming years thanks to heavy spending on technologies like cybersecurity, 5G and further moves into the cloud.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯认为，由于在网络安全、5G等技术上的巨额支出以及进一步向云迁移，大量科技公司将在未来几年实现显着增长。</blockquote></p><p> He estimated that this \"digital transformation\" would fuel another $2T in spending over the next six to seven years.</p><p><blockquote>他估计，这种“数字化转型”将在未来六到七年内增加 2 万亿美元的支出。</blockquote></p><p> That said, Ives warned investors that they had to be selective with their portfolios, as some stocks will lose momentum once the massive pandemic-related stimulus comes to an end.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，艾夫斯警告投资者，他们必须对投资组合进行选择性，因为一旦与大流行相关的大规模刺激措施结束，一些股票将失去动力。</blockquote></p><p> \"You have to separate the winners from the losers and the long-term winners versus the ones that benefited from the pandemic,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“你必须区分赢家和输家，区分长期赢家和从疫情中受益的人。”</blockquote></p><p> Rather, Ives suggested investors \"double down on their winners.\"</p><p><blockquote>相反，艾夫斯建议投资者“加倍押注赢家”。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at some of the stocks mentioned by Ives, NVDA has done by far the best in 2021, more than doubling over the course of the year. ZS and PANW have both risen nearly 50%. AAPL lags behind its smaller rivals, although it has rallied about 30% for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>从艾夫斯提到的一些股票来看，NVDA 在 2021 年的表现是迄今为止最好的，一年内上涨了一倍多。ZS 和 PANW 均上涨近 50%。AAPL 落后于规模较小的竞争对手，尽管它在 2021 年上涨了约 30%。</blockquote></p><p> The main laggard in the group is CYBR, which is basically flat on the year:</p><p><blockquote>集团中主要落后的是CYBR，同比基本持平：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25aa45389fe8b89d41006f304e02894e\" tg-width=\"1201\" tg-height=\"405\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wedbush's Dan Ives: Don't throw in the towel on tech<blockquote>韦德布什的丹·艾夫斯：不要放弃科技</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWedbush's Dan Ives: Don't throw in the towel on tech<blockquote>韦德布什的丹·艾夫斯：不要放弃科技</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-18 13:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Wedbush Securities managing director Dan Ives advised investors to stick with technology stocks despite the potential valuation crunch that could happen as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什证券董事总经理丹·艾夫斯建议投资者坚持投资科技股，尽管美联储加息可能会出现潜在的估值紧缩。</blockquote></p><p> \"This is not the time to throw in the white towel on tech,\" he told CNBC on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“现在不是放弃科技的时候，”他周五对 CNBC 表示。</blockquote></p><p> Calling the current era \"a fourth industrial revolution,\" Ives backed such stocks as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CYBR\">CyberArk Software </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZS\">Zscaler </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA </a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple </a>.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯将当前时代称为“第四次工业革命”，他支持以下股票：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CYBR\">赛博方舟软件</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">帕洛阿尔托网络</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZS\">缩放器</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>.</blockquote></p><p> \"This is an opportunity, not the start of a downtrend for tech,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“这是一个机会，而不是科技下行趋势的开始，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Ives argued that a large number of tech names will see significant growth in coming years thanks to heavy spending on technologies like cybersecurity, 5G and further moves into the cloud.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯认为，由于在网络安全、5G等技术上的巨额支出以及进一步向云迁移，大量科技公司将在未来几年实现显着增长。</blockquote></p><p> He estimated that this \"digital transformation\" would fuel another $2T in spending over the next six to seven years.</p><p><blockquote>他估计，这种“数字化转型”将在未来六到七年内增加 2 万亿美元的支出。</blockquote></p><p> That said, Ives warned investors that they had to be selective with their portfolios, as some stocks will lose momentum once the massive pandemic-related stimulus comes to an end.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，艾夫斯警告投资者，他们必须对投资组合进行选择性，因为一旦与大流行相关的大规模刺激措施结束，一些股票将失去动力。</blockquote></p><p> \"You have to separate the winners from the losers and the long-term winners versus the ones that benefited from the pandemic,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“你必须区分赢家和输家，区分长期赢家和从疫情中受益的人。”</blockquote></p><p> Rather, Ives suggested investors \"double down on their winners.\"</p><p><blockquote>相反，艾夫斯建议投资者“加倍押注赢家”。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at some of the stocks mentioned by Ives, NVDA has done by far the best in 2021, more than doubling over the course of the year. ZS and PANW have both risen nearly 50%. AAPL lags behind its smaller rivals, although it has rallied about 30% for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>从艾夫斯提到的一些股票来看，NVDA 在 2021 年的表现是迄今为止最好的，一年内上涨了一倍多。ZS 和 PANW 均上涨近 50%。AAPL 落后于规模较小的竞争对手，尽管它在 2021 年上涨了约 30%。</blockquote></p><p> The main laggard in the group is CYBR, which is basically flat on the year:</p><p><blockquote>集团中主要落后的是CYBR，同比基本持平：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25aa45389fe8b89d41006f304e02894e\" tg-width=\"1201\" tg-height=\"405\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3781354-dont-throw-in-the-towel-on-tech-wedbushs-dan-ives\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZS":"Zscaler Inc.","NVDA":"英伟达","CYBR":"Cyber-Ark Software","PANW":"Palo Alto Networks"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3781354-dont-throw-in-the-towel-on-tech-wedbushs-dan-ives","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161245886","content_text":"Wedbush Securities managing director Dan Ives advised investors to stick with technology stocks despite the potential valuation crunch that could happen as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.\n\"This is not the time to throw in the white towel on tech,\" he told CNBC on Friday.\nCalling the current era \"a fourth industrial revolution,\" Ives backed such stocks as CyberArk Software , Palo Alto Networks , Zscaler , NVIDIA  and Apple .\n\"This is an opportunity, not the start of a downtrend for tech,\" he said.\nIves argued that a large number of tech names will see significant growth in coming years thanks to heavy spending on technologies like cybersecurity, 5G and further moves into the cloud.\nHe estimated that this \"digital transformation\" would fuel another $2T in spending over the next six to seven years.\nThat said, Ives warned investors that they had to be selective with their portfolios, as some stocks will lose momentum once the massive pandemic-related stimulus comes to an end.\n\"You have to separate the winners from the losers and the long-term winners versus the ones that benefited from the pandemic,\" he said.\nRather, Ives suggested investors \"double down on their winners.\"\nLooking at some of the stocks mentioned by Ives, NVDA has done by far the best in 2021, more than doubling over the course of the year. ZS and PANW have both risen nearly 50%. AAPL lags behind its smaller rivals, although it has rallied about 30% for 2021.\nThe main laggard in the group is CYBR, which is basically flat on the year:","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CYBR":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"ZS":0.9,"PANW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690326873,"gmtCreate":1639638958787,"gmtModify":1639639521787,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It's a&nbsp;tricky balancing act of balancing expectations against actual conditions. Hope we all enjoy the ride in the coming months.&nbsp;","listText":"It's a&nbsp;tricky balancing act of balancing expectations against actual conditions. Hope we all enjoy the ride in the coming months.&nbsp;","text":"It's a tricky balancing act of balancing expectations against actual conditions. Hope we all enjoy the ride in the coming months.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690326873","repostId":"1143095001","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143095001","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639635187,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1143095001?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 14:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed heads for the exits despite Omicron. Who will follow?<blockquote>尽管面临奥密克戎，美联储仍走向退出。谁会跟着？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143095001","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve didn't beat around the bush on Wednesday when it signaled that ","content":"<p>(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve didn't beat around the bush on Wednesday when it signaled that raging inflation is its biggest risk and not the potential economic damage from the fast-spreading Omicron variant.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社） - 美国美联储周三并没有拐弯抹角，当时它发出信号称，飙升的通胀是其最大的风险，而不是快速蔓延的奥密克戎变种带来的潜在经济损失。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed doubled the pace at which it will reduce its bond purchases, while new forecasts from policymakers signaled as many as three interest rate increases next year. Chair Jerome Powell then waxed enthusiastically about the strength of the U.S. job market.</p><p><blockquote>美联储将减少债券购买的步伐加倍，而政策制定者的新预测表明明年将加息多达三次。主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔随后热情地谈到了美国就业市场的实力。</blockquote></p><p> \"The economy no longer needs increasing amounts of policy support,\" Powell told a news conference. \"In my view, we are making rapid progress toward maximum employment.\"</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示：“经济不再需要越来越多的政策支持。”“在我看来，我们正在朝着最大限度就业的方向取得快速进展。”</blockquote></p><p> Whether any of the Fed's peers are ready to follow its lead, however, will become clear in the next 24 hours with a rapid-fire succession of meetings by the Bank of England, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着英国央行、欧洲央行和日本央行的一系列快速会议，美联储的同行是否准备好追随其脚步，将在未来24小时内变得明朗起来。</blockquote></p><p> Of the three, however, only the BoE is likely to take more than a baby step in trimming the monumental support provided to its economy through the pandemic. That could set the stage for a choppy 2022 with a Fed determined to end its asset purchases as fast as possible and kick off interest rates soon after, while others will be more hesitant to shift so decisively in that direction.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在这三家公司中，只有英国央行可能会在削减通过疫情向其经济提供的巨额支持方面迈出一小步。这可能会为动荡的 2022 年创造条件，美联储决心尽快结束资产购买，并在不久后启动加息，而其他人则会更加犹豫是否要如此果断地朝着这个方向转变。</blockquote></p><p> The BoE could become the first of the major central banks to raise interest rates at Thursday's policy meeting, but the United Kingdom is also where friction between Omicron and way-over-target inflation is playing out most vividly.</p><p><blockquote>英国央行可能成为周四政策会议上第一家加息的主要央行，但英国也是奥密克戎与超出目标通胀之间摩擦最为明显的地方。</blockquote></p><p> UK daily coronavirus infections are now at their highest since the earliest days of the pandemic, forcing Prime Minister Boris Johnson this week to join with opposition lawmakers in imposing new restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>英国每日冠状病毒感染人数目前处于疫情爆发初期以来的最高水平，迫使首相鲍里斯·约翰逊本周与反对派议员一起实施新的限制。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, shocking data on Wednesday showed consumer price inflation at a decade-high rate and bets in financial markets on a December rate hike jumped to 60% from about a third.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，周三令人震惊的数据显示，消费者价格通胀率达到十年来的最高水平，金融市场对 12 月加息的押注从约三分之一跃升至 60%。</blockquote></p><p> \"There is now the real risk of inflation becoming entrenched – especially considering the signs of second-round effects in terms of rising wages, supported by a strong labour market – but this is balanced against the threat to the economic recovery from the new Omicron variant,\" said Ellie Henderson, an economist at bank Investec.</p><p><blockquote>“现在确实存在通胀根深蒂固的风险——特别是考虑到在强劲劳动力市场的支持下，工资上涨出现了第二轮效应的迹象——但这与新奥密克戎变体对经济复苏的威胁相平衡，”天达银行经济学家 Ellie Henderson 表示。</blockquote></p><p> Investors and economists are not expecting anything nearly as bold this week from either the ECB or BOJ.</p><p><blockquote>投资者和经济学家预计欧洲央行或日本央行本周不会有任何大胆的举措。</blockquote></p><p> The ECB is expected to be among the last to tighten policy, and the current unusually vibrant debate is focused on whether to dial back an exceptionally generous stimulus scheme just a notch. The caution is easy to understand. The bank has undershot its inflation target for most of the past decade, so it would rather move too late than too early, fearing that a misguided policy tweak could unravel years of work.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲央行预计将是最后收紧政策的机构之一，当前异常激烈的辩论集中在是否将异常慷慨的刺激计划再降低一个档次。这种谨慎很容易理解。在过去十年的大部分时间里，央行的通胀目标都低于预期，因此它宁愿为时已晚，也不愿为时过早，因为它担心误导性的政策调整可能会导致多年的工作付诸东流。</blockquote></p><p> The euro zone's recovery is also trailing others. The bloc is just getting back to its pre-pandemic size and the job market could take another two years to recover. Debt levels are also at record highs, particularly in the bloc's south, so any big retreat could widen the spread between German and Italian debt, raising questions about the sustainability of these debt levels.</p><p><blockquote>欧元区的复苏也落后于其他国家。欧盟刚刚恢复到大流行前的规模，就业市场可能还需要两年时间才能复苏。债务水平也处于历史高位，特别是在欧盟南部，因此任何大幅撤退都可能扩大德国和意大利债务之间的利差，引发人们对这些债务水平可持续性的质疑。</blockquote></p><p> Given that the risk of moving too quick appears to far outweigh the risk of moving too slow, the ECB is likely to take only the smallest step towards removing extraordinary stimulus this week and will signal copious support, including thorough record low rates, at least through next year.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于行动过快的风险似乎远远超过行动过慢的风险，欧洲央行本周可能只会朝着取消特别刺激措施迈出最小的一步，并将发出充足的支持信号，包括彻底创纪录的低利率，至少到明年。</blockquote></p><p> In Japan, the consumer-level inflation that is tearing through other parts of the globe remains largely absent. As such, only a marginal reduction in corporate asset purchases is under discussion at Friday's BOJ meeting.</p><p><blockquote>在日本，席卷全球其他地区的消费级通货膨胀在很大程度上仍然不存在。因此，周五的日本央行会议仅讨论小幅减少企业资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> Even if the others are not hard on the Fed's heels, Powell and the Fed appear to have set the agenda for a tumultuous 2022 as central bankers chart their ways to the exits, albeit at dramatically different paces.</p><p><blockquote>即使其他人没有紧随其后，鲍威尔和美联储似乎也为动荡的 2022 年制定了议程，因为各国央行行长们正在制定退出之路，尽管步伐截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> \"You saw it in his congressional remarks that were more about tightening sooner than it was about worrying about the health of the global economy,\" said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist for Dreyfuss &amp; Mellon. The Fed and other central banks are \"conveying a sense that they are heading for the exits. Modern central banking is much about managing expectations and they do not want to be seen as behind the curve.\"</p><p><blockquote>德雷福斯梅隆首席经济学家文森特·莱因哈特表示：“你可以从他的国会讲话中看到这一点，这些讲话更多的是关于尽快收紧货币政策，而不是担心全球经济的健康状况。”美联储和其他央行“传达了一种他们正在走向退出的感觉。现代央行在很大程度上是为了管理预期，他们不想被视为落后于曲线。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed heads for the exits despite Omicron. Who will follow?<blockquote>尽管面临奥密克戎，美联储仍走向退出。谁会跟着？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed heads for the exits despite Omicron. Who will follow?<blockquote>尽管面临奥密克戎，美联储仍走向退出。谁会跟着？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-16 14:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve didn't beat around the bush on Wednesday when it signaled that raging inflation is its biggest risk and not the potential economic damage from the fast-spreading Omicron variant.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社） - 美国美联储周三并没有拐弯抹角，当时它发出信号称，飙升的通胀是其最大的风险，而不是快速蔓延的奥密克戎变种带来的潜在经济损失。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed doubled the pace at which it will reduce its bond purchases, while new forecasts from policymakers signaled as many as three interest rate increases next year. Chair Jerome Powell then waxed enthusiastically about the strength of the U.S. job market.</p><p><blockquote>美联储将减少债券购买的步伐加倍，而政策制定者的新预测表明明年将加息多达三次。主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔随后热情地谈到了美国就业市场的实力。</blockquote></p><p> \"The economy no longer needs increasing amounts of policy support,\" Powell told a news conference. \"In my view, we are making rapid progress toward maximum employment.\"</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示：“经济不再需要越来越多的政策支持。”“在我看来，我们正在朝着最大限度就业的方向取得快速进展。”</blockquote></p><p> Whether any of the Fed's peers are ready to follow its lead, however, will become clear in the next 24 hours with a rapid-fire succession of meetings by the Bank of England, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着英国央行、欧洲央行和日本央行的一系列快速会议，美联储的同行是否准备好追随其脚步，将在未来24小时内变得明朗起来。</blockquote></p><p> Of the three, however, only the BoE is likely to take more than a baby step in trimming the monumental support provided to its economy through the pandemic. That could set the stage for a choppy 2022 with a Fed determined to end its asset purchases as fast as possible and kick off interest rates soon after, while others will be more hesitant to shift so decisively in that direction.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在这三家公司中，只有英国央行可能会在削减通过疫情向其经济提供的巨额支持方面迈出一小步。这可能会为动荡的 2022 年创造条件，美联储决心尽快结束资产购买，并在不久后启动加息，而其他人则会更加犹豫是否要如此果断地朝着这个方向转变。</blockquote></p><p> The BoE could become the first of the major central banks to raise interest rates at Thursday's policy meeting, but the United Kingdom is also where friction between Omicron and way-over-target inflation is playing out most vividly.</p><p><blockquote>英国央行可能成为周四政策会议上第一家加息的主要央行，但英国也是奥密克戎与超出目标通胀之间摩擦最为明显的地方。</blockquote></p><p> UK daily coronavirus infections are now at their highest since the earliest days of the pandemic, forcing Prime Minister Boris Johnson this week to join with opposition lawmakers in imposing new restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>英国每日冠状病毒感染人数目前处于疫情爆发初期以来的最高水平，迫使首相鲍里斯·约翰逊本周与反对派议员一起实施新的限制。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, shocking data on Wednesday showed consumer price inflation at a decade-high rate and bets in financial markets on a December rate hike jumped to 60% from about a third.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，周三令人震惊的数据显示，消费者价格通胀率达到十年来的最高水平，金融市场对 12 月加息的押注从约三分之一跃升至 60%。</blockquote></p><p> \"There is now the real risk of inflation becoming entrenched – especially considering the signs of second-round effects in terms of rising wages, supported by a strong labour market – but this is balanced against the threat to the economic recovery from the new Omicron variant,\" said Ellie Henderson, an economist at bank Investec.</p><p><blockquote>“现在确实存在通胀根深蒂固的风险——特别是考虑到在强劲劳动力市场的支持下，工资上涨出现了第二轮效应的迹象——但这与新奥密克戎变体对经济复苏的威胁相平衡，”天达银行经济学家 Ellie Henderson 表示。</blockquote></p><p> Investors and economists are not expecting anything nearly as bold this week from either the ECB or BOJ.</p><p><blockquote>投资者和经济学家预计欧洲央行或日本央行本周不会有任何大胆的举措。</blockquote></p><p> The ECB is expected to be among the last to tighten policy, and the current unusually vibrant debate is focused on whether to dial back an exceptionally generous stimulus scheme just a notch. The caution is easy to understand. The bank has undershot its inflation target for most of the past decade, so it would rather move too late than too early, fearing that a misguided policy tweak could unravel years of work.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲央行预计将是最后收紧政策的机构之一，当前异常激烈的辩论集中在是否将异常慷慨的刺激计划再降低一个档次。这种谨慎很容易理解。在过去十年的大部分时间里，央行的通胀目标都低于预期，因此它宁愿为时已晚，也不愿为时过早，因为它担心误导性的政策调整可能会导致多年的工作付诸东流。</blockquote></p><p> The euro zone's recovery is also trailing others. The bloc is just getting back to its pre-pandemic size and the job market could take another two years to recover. Debt levels are also at record highs, particularly in the bloc's south, so any big retreat could widen the spread between German and Italian debt, raising questions about the sustainability of these debt levels.</p><p><blockquote>欧元区的复苏也落后于其他国家。欧盟刚刚恢复到大流行前的规模，就业市场可能还需要两年时间才能复苏。债务水平也处于历史高位，特别是在欧盟南部，因此任何大幅撤退都可能扩大德国和意大利债务之间的利差，引发人们对这些债务水平可持续性的质疑。</blockquote></p><p> Given that the risk of moving too quick appears to far outweigh the risk of moving too slow, the ECB is likely to take only the smallest step towards removing extraordinary stimulus this week and will signal copious support, including thorough record low rates, at least through next year.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于行动过快的风险似乎远远超过行动过慢的风险，欧洲央行本周可能只会朝着取消特别刺激措施迈出最小的一步，并将发出充足的支持信号，包括彻底创纪录的低利率，至少到明年。</blockquote></p><p> In Japan, the consumer-level inflation that is tearing through other parts of the globe remains largely absent. As such, only a marginal reduction in corporate asset purchases is under discussion at Friday's BOJ meeting.</p><p><blockquote>在日本，席卷全球其他地区的消费级通货膨胀在很大程度上仍然不存在。因此，周五的日本央行会议仅讨论小幅减少企业资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> Even if the others are not hard on the Fed's heels, Powell and the Fed appear to have set the agenda for a tumultuous 2022 as central bankers chart their ways to the exits, albeit at dramatically different paces.</p><p><blockquote>即使其他人没有紧随其后，鲍威尔和美联储似乎也为动荡的 2022 年制定了议程，因为各国央行行长们正在制定退出之路，尽管步伐截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> \"You saw it in his congressional remarks that were more about tightening sooner than it was about worrying about the health of the global economy,\" said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist for Dreyfuss &amp; Mellon. The Fed and other central banks are \"conveying a sense that they are heading for the exits. Modern central banking is much about managing expectations and they do not want to be seen as behind the curve.\"</p><p><blockquote>德雷福斯梅隆首席经济学家文森特·莱因哈特表示：“你可以从他的国会讲话中看到这一点，这些讲话更多的是关于尽快收紧货币政策，而不是担心全球经济的健康状况。”美联储和其他央行“传达了一种他们正在走向退出的感觉。现代央行在很大程度上是为了管理预期，他们不想被视为落后于曲线。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-heads-exits-despite-omicron-060632193.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-heads-exits-despite-omicron-060632193.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143095001","content_text":"(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve didn't beat around the bush on Wednesday when it signaled that raging inflation is its biggest risk and not the potential economic damage from the fast-spreading Omicron variant.\nThe Fed doubled the pace at which it will reduce its bond purchases, while new forecasts from policymakers signaled as many as three interest rate increases next year. Chair Jerome Powell then waxed enthusiastically about the strength of the U.S. job market.\n\"The economy no longer needs increasing amounts of policy support,\" Powell told a news conference. \"In my view, we are making rapid progress toward maximum employment.\"\nWhether any of the Fed's peers are ready to follow its lead, however, will become clear in the next 24 hours with a rapid-fire succession of meetings by the Bank of England, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.\nOf the three, however, only the BoE is likely to take more than a baby step in trimming the monumental support provided to its economy through the pandemic. That could set the stage for a choppy 2022 with a Fed determined to end its asset purchases as fast as possible and kick off interest rates soon after, while others will be more hesitant to shift so decisively in that direction.\nThe BoE could become the first of the major central banks to raise interest rates at Thursday's policy meeting, but the United Kingdom is also where friction between Omicron and way-over-target inflation is playing out most vividly.\nUK daily coronavirus infections are now at their highest since the earliest days of the pandemic, forcing Prime Minister Boris Johnson this week to join with opposition lawmakers in imposing new restrictions.\nOn the other hand, shocking data on Wednesday showed consumer price inflation at a decade-high rate and bets in financial markets on a December rate hike jumped to 60% from about a third.\n\"There is now the real risk of inflation becoming entrenched – especially considering the signs of second-round effects in terms of rising wages, supported by a strong labour market – but this is balanced against the threat to the economic recovery from the new Omicron variant,\" said Ellie Henderson, an economist at bank Investec.\nInvestors and economists are not expecting anything nearly as bold this week from either the ECB or BOJ.\nThe ECB is expected to be among the last to tighten policy, and the current unusually vibrant debate is focused on whether to dial back an exceptionally generous stimulus scheme just a notch. The caution is easy to understand. The bank has undershot its inflation target for most of the past decade, so it would rather move too late than too early, fearing that a misguided policy tweak could unravel years of work.\nThe euro zone's recovery is also trailing others. The bloc is just getting back to its pre-pandemic size and the job market could take another two years to recover. Debt levels are also at record highs, particularly in the bloc's south, so any big retreat could widen the spread between German and Italian debt, raising questions about the sustainability of these debt levels.\nGiven that the risk of moving too quick appears to far outweigh the risk of moving too slow, the ECB is likely to take only the smallest step towards removing extraordinary stimulus this week and will signal copious support, including thorough record low rates, at least through next year.\nIn Japan, the consumer-level inflation that is tearing through other parts of the globe remains largely absent. As such, only a marginal reduction in corporate asset purchases is under discussion at Friday's BOJ meeting.\nEven if the others are not hard on the Fed's heels, Powell and the Fed appear to have set the agenda for a tumultuous 2022 as central bankers chart their ways to the exits, albeit at dramatically different paces.\n\"You saw it in his congressional remarks that were more about tightening sooner than it was about worrying about the health of the global economy,\" said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist for Dreyfuss & Mellon. The Fed and other central banks are \"conveying a sense that they are heading for the exits. Modern central banking is much about managing expectations and they do not want to be seen as behind the curve.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607541313,"gmtCreate":1639570381232,"gmtModify":1639571035897,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Conflicting contradictory confusing messages. I'm worse off now than before I read this article.&nbsp;","listText":"Conflicting contradictory confusing messages. I'm worse off now than before I read this article.&nbsp;","text":"Conflicting contradictory confusing messages. I'm worse off now than before I read this article.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607541313","repostId":"2191674549","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604772192,"gmtCreate":1639450935826,"gmtModify":1639451585121,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It's impossible to know the unknown unknowns until they let themselves known.","listText":"It's impossible to know the unknown unknowns until they let themselves known.","text":"It's impossible to know the unknown unknowns until they let themselves known.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604772192","repostId":"1174096078","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604024411,"gmtCreate":1639286179590,"gmtModify":1639286180538,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"All of 'em still highly unprofitable. Hmm... I'll drink to that! 🍻&nbsp;","listText":"All of 'em still highly unprofitable. Hmm... I'll drink to that! 🍻&nbsp;","text":"All of 'em still highly unprofitable. Hmm... I'll drink to that! 🍻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604024411","repostId":"1103250344","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1103250344","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639280672,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1103250344?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-12 11:44","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: IoT solutions, wine, and satellites in a 3 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：物联网解决方案、葡萄酒和卫星在 IPO 第三周</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103250344","media":"renaissancecap...","summary":"The IPO market is expected to stay relatively quiet in the week ahead with three IPOs scheduled to r","content":"<p>The IPO market is expected to stay relatively quiet in the week ahead with three IPOs scheduled to raise $789 million.</p><p><blockquote>预计未来一周IPO市场将保持相对平静，三次IPO计划筹集7.89亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> IoT solutions developer<b>Samsara</b>(IOT) plans to raise $753 million at an $11.6 billion market cap. This \"internet-of-things\" company provides a cloud-based platform that connects the assets of businesses with physical operations, enhancing operational efficiency and asset and employee productivity. Fast growing but highly unprofitable, Samsara saw double-digit growth for customers with $100k+ ARR in the 9mo FY22.</p><p><blockquote>物联网解决方案开发商<b>轮回</b>（物联网）计划以116亿美元的市值筹集7.53亿美元。这家“物联网”公司提供了一个基于云的平台，将企业的资产与物理运营连接起来，提高了运营效率以及资产和员工的生产力。快速增长但高度无利可图，Samsara 在 2022 财年的 9 个月中，ARR 超过 10 万美元的客户实现了两位数的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Wine brand<b>Fresh Vine Wine</b>(VINE) plans to raise $21 million at a $116 million market cap. This celebrity-founded company produces low carb, low calorie premium wines. Growing but highly unprofitable, Fresh Vine sells its wines through wholesale, retail, and DTC channels, and is able to conduct wholesale distribution in all 50 states and Puerto Rico.</p><p><blockquote>葡萄酒品牌<b>新鲜葡萄酒</b>(VINE) 计划以 1.16 亿美元的市值筹集 2100 万美元。这家名人创办的公司生产低碳水化合物、低热量的优质葡萄酒。Fresh Vine正在增长，但非常无利可图，它通过批发、零售和DTC渠道销售葡萄酒，并能够在所有50个州和波多黎各进行批发分销。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap satellite developer<b>Sidus Space</b>(SIDU) plans to raise $15 million at an $81 million market cap. This company provides commercial satellite services such as design, manufacture, launch, and data collection. &nbsp;Sidus Space has generated space-related manufacturing revenues to date, but is highly unprofitable with negative gross margin in the 9mo21.</p><p><blockquote>微帽卫星显影剂<b>Sidus空间</b>（SIDU）计划以8100万美元的市值筹集1500万美元。该公司提供商业卫星服务，如设计、制造、发射和数据收集。Sidus Space 迄今为止已产生与航天相关的制造收入，但在 2021 年 9 月毛利率为负，高度无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ead80e54642569e2b7b368c8d50dc265\" tg-width=\"1409\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619493174116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: IoT solutions, wine, and satellites in a 3 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：物联网解决方案、葡萄酒和卫星在 IPO 第三周</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: IoT solutions, wine, and satellites in a 3 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：物联网解决方案、葡萄酒和卫星在 IPO 第三周</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">renaissancecap...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-12 11:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The IPO market is expected to stay relatively quiet in the week ahead with three IPOs scheduled to raise $789 million.</p><p><blockquote>预计未来一周IPO市场将保持相对平静，三次IPO计划筹集7.89亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> IoT solutions developer<b>Samsara</b>(IOT) plans to raise $753 million at an $11.6 billion market cap. This \"internet-of-things\" company provides a cloud-based platform that connects the assets of businesses with physical operations, enhancing operational efficiency and asset and employee productivity. Fast growing but highly unprofitable, Samsara saw double-digit growth for customers with $100k+ ARR in the 9mo FY22.</p><p><blockquote>物联网解决方案开发商<b>轮回</b>（物联网）计划以116亿美元的市值筹集7.53亿美元。这家“物联网”公司提供了一个基于云的平台，将企业的资产与物理运营连接起来，提高了运营效率以及资产和员工的生产力。快速增长但高度无利可图，Samsara 在 2022 财年的 9 个月中，ARR 超过 10 万美元的客户实现了两位数的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Wine brand<b>Fresh Vine Wine</b>(VINE) plans to raise $21 million at a $116 million market cap. This celebrity-founded company produces low carb, low calorie premium wines. Growing but highly unprofitable, Fresh Vine sells its wines through wholesale, retail, and DTC channels, and is able to conduct wholesale distribution in all 50 states and Puerto Rico.</p><p><blockquote>葡萄酒品牌<b>新鲜葡萄酒</b>(VINE) 计划以 1.16 亿美元的市值筹集 2100 万美元。这家名人创办的公司生产低碳水化合物、低热量的优质葡萄酒。Fresh Vine正在增长，但非常无利可图，它通过批发、零售和DTC渠道销售葡萄酒，并能够在所有50个州和波多黎各进行批发分销。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap satellite developer<b>Sidus Space</b>(SIDU) plans to raise $15 million at an $81 million market cap. This company provides commercial satellite services such as design, manufacture, launch, and data collection. &nbsp;Sidus Space has generated space-related manufacturing revenues to date, but is highly unprofitable with negative gross margin in the 9mo21.</p><p><blockquote>微帽卫星显影剂<b>Sidus空间</b>（SIDU）计划以8100万美元的市值筹集1500万美元。该公司提供商业卫星服务，如设计、制造、发射和数据收集。Sidus Space 迄今为止已产生与航天相关的制造收入，但在 2021 年 9 月毛利率为负，高度无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ead80e54642569e2b7b368c8d50dc265\" tg-width=\"1409\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89474/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-IoT-solutions-wine-and-satellites-in-a-3-IPO-week\">renaissancecap...</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","IOT":"Samsara, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SIDU":"Sidus Space Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89474/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-IoT-solutions-wine-and-satellites-in-a-3-IPO-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103250344","content_text":"The IPO market is expected to stay relatively quiet in the week ahead with three IPOs scheduled to raise $789 million.\nIoT solutions developerSamsara(IOT) plans to raise $753 million at an $11.6 billion market cap. This \"internet-of-things\" company provides a cloud-based platform that connects the assets of businesses with physical operations, enhancing operational efficiency and asset and employee productivity. Fast growing but highly unprofitable, Samsara saw double-digit growth for customers with $100k+ ARR in the 9mo FY22.\nWine brandFresh Vine Wine(VINE) plans to raise $21 million at a $116 million market cap. This celebrity-founded company produces low carb, low calorie premium wines. Growing but highly unprofitable, Fresh Vine sells its wines through wholesale, retail, and DTC channels, and is able to conduct wholesale distribution in all 50 states and Puerto Rico.\nMicro-cap satellite developerSidus Space(SIDU) plans to raise $15 million at an $81 million market cap. This company provides commercial satellite services such as design, manufacture, launch, and data collection.  Sidus Space has generated space-related manufacturing revenues to date, but is highly unprofitable with negative gross margin in the 9mo21.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0,".DJI":0,"VINE":0,".SPX":0,"IOT":0,"SIDU":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":607541313,"gmtCreate":1639570381232,"gmtModify":1639571035897,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Conflicting contradictory confusing messages. I'm worse off now than before I read this article.&nbsp;","listText":"Conflicting contradictory confusing messages. I'm worse off now than before I read this article.&nbsp;","text":"Conflicting contradictory confusing messages. I'm worse off now than before I read this article.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607541313","repostId":"2191674549","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388338218,"gmtCreate":1613019801734,"gmtModify":1703768446608,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It's inevitable&nbsp;","listText":"It's inevitable&nbsp;","text":"It's inevitable","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388338218","repostId":"2110416000","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340262227,"gmtCreate":1617418860269,"gmtModify":1634521040165,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"If we all have crystal ball to see the future, where's the fun in that?","listText":"If we all have crystal ball to see the future, where's the fun in that?","text":"If we all have crystal ball to see the future, where's the fun in that?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340262227","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最伟大的反弹行情之一。基准测试后<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）由于冠状病毒大流行前所未有的不确定性，在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹，较低点上涨了约 75%。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到另一个现实：股市崩溃或修正的倾向。事情现在可能看起来很好，但下一次大俯冲总是在翅膀里等着。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经进行了38次调整。这意味着基准指数平均每 1.87 年下降两位数。由于市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均值肯定不受投资者青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此……平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年至1996年的时期，那时没有任何修正。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月进行一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊市底部三年内的修正是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自 1960 年初（为了简单起见，我选择了一个任意年份）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从前八个熊市低点反弹的过程中，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下降。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自 2020 年 3 月 23 日以来，“涨、涨、走”几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当这个估值指标被击中时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能就是标准普尔500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，用于检查过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收入。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标准普尔500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是 150 年平均水平 16.8 的两倍多。以持续牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史上的水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而互联网的接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的壁垒，这些壁垒在过去可能会阻碍市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标准普尔 500 指数席勒市盈率突破并维持在 30 水平的情况并没有好结果。在之前的四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数从20%暴跌至89%。尽管如今大萧条时期经历的 89% 暴跌的可能性非常小，但历史上，当估值延长时，就像现在一样，可能会出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把现金放在手边，以备不时之需</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明，下行即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的消息，但不应该如此。崩溃和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买优秀公司的机会。想想那些你可能会因为去年三月没有买入而责备自己的伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来，标普500的38次调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹搁置了。此外，在过去一个世纪中，标普500的 20 年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要在调整期间进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38 个两位数跌幅中有 24 个是在 104 个日历日或更短时间内（3.5 个月或更短时间）触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能会很陡峭，但往往会很快解决。这是你准备好现金以备不时之需的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最伟大的反弹行情之一。基准测试后<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）由于冠状病毒大流行前所未有的不确定性，在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹，较低点上涨了约 75%。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到另一个现实：股市崩溃或修正的倾向。事情现在可能看起来很好，但下一次大俯冲总是在翅膀里等着。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经进行了38次调整。这意味着基准指数平均每 1.87 年下降两位数。由于市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均值肯定不受投资者青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此……平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年至1996年的时期，那时没有任何修正。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月进行一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊市底部三年内的修正是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自 1960 年初（为了简单起见，我选择了一个任意年份）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从前八个熊市低点反弹的过程中，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下降。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自 2020 年 3 月 23 日以来，“涨、涨、走”几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当这个估值指标被击中时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能就是标准普尔500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，用于检查过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收入。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标准普尔500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是 150 年平均水平 16.8 的两倍多。以持续牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史上的水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而互联网的接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的壁垒，这些壁垒在过去可能会阻碍市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标准普尔 500 指数席勒市盈率突破并维持在 30 水平的情况并没有好结果。在之前的四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数从20%暴跌至89%。尽管如今大萧条时期经历的 89% 暴跌的可能性非常小，但历史上，当估值延长时，就像现在一样，可能会出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把现金放在手边，以备不时之需</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明，下行即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的消息，但不应该如此。崩溃和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买优秀公司的机会。想想那些你可能会因为去年三月没有买入而责备自己的伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来，标普500的38次调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹搁置了。此外，在过去一个世纪中，标普500的 20 年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要在调整期间进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38 个两位数跌幅中有 24 个是在 104 个日历日或更短时间内（3.5 个月或更短时间）触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能会很陡峭，但往往会很快解决。这是你准备好现金以备不时之需的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":867155019,"gmtCreate":1633229748443,"gmtModify":1633229749785,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This is quite interesting. Sound advice too.","listText":"This is quite interesting. Sound advice too.","text":"This is quite interesting. Sound advice too.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867155019","repostId":"2172643049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868694736,"gmtCreate":1632636246125,"gmtModify":1632647707496,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Isn't that we're supposed to do regardless?! Whether or not market analysts agree on anything, we still have to do our own \"due diligence\" before making any significant decisions.&nbsp;","listText":"Isn't that we're supposed to do regardless?! Whether or not market analysts agree on anything, we still have to do our own \"due diligence\" before making any significant decisions.&nbsp;","text":"Isn't that we're supposed to do regardless?! Whether or not market analysts agree on anything, we still have to do our own \"due diligence\" before making any significant decisions.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868694736","repostId":"1175726457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175726457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632626757,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175726457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-26 11:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell<blockquote>观点： 市场分析师无法就股市下一步走势达成一致。因此，在购买或出售之前，请仔细检查数据</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175726457","media":"Market Watch","summary":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for tw","content":"<p>It’s an urgent question, since the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个紧迫的问题，因为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗集团</a>经济意外指数（CESI）在连续上涨一年多后，已经连续两个月为负。CESI衡量最新经济新闻偏离华尔街共识的程度。因此，过去两个月持续为负的 CESI 读数意味着总体而言，经济消息比预期更糟。</blockquote></p><p> Is it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?</p><p><blockquote>对于股票投资者来说，最近发布的美国经济新闻明显差于预期，这是好消息还是坏消息？</blockquote></p><p> The latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团经济意外指数（CESI）的最新读数为负29.2。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>10天前，它甚至更负面，为负61.7。过去 18 年的平均值为 4.6。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd20c01571a824c8113089a65b814bb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> There is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.</p><p><blockquote>我监控的顾问们对这些最新读数意味着什么没有达成共识。一些人认为这是个好消息，反向理论认为，比预期更糟糕的消息构成了美国牛市可能攀升的 “担忧之墙”。另一些人则认为，你不能粉饰比预期更糟糕的经济新闻。</blockquote></p><p> To help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助解决他们的分歧，我分析了2003年的每日CESI数据。具体来说，我测量了它与标普500 sSPX 的相关性，在接下来的一个月、一个季度、六个月的回报率为 +0.15%，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>年。我没有想出任何符合传统统计显著性标准的东西。</blockquote></p><p> A summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&amp;P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.</p><p><blockquote>我的发现总结如下图所示。请注意，无论 CESI 是正还是负，标普500的平均回报率几乎相同，呈上升趋势或下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65016b28c482526ac92a5d6035ba9ed9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> These findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”</p><p><blockquote>这些发现并不是对CESI本身的批评。花旗集团创建该指数是为了给外汇交易者提供一个有用的工具。花旗集团表示，CESI“是一个独特的专有设计的完美例子，它对讨论它的人几乎没有任何影响……它并不打算用于股票价格。”</blockquote></p><p> There’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.</p><p><blockquote>这里还有一个更广泛的教训需要我们学习： 我们需要让直觉接受经验现实的检验。当我们的预感似乎如此明显地正确时，这一点就显得尤为重要--当经济消息的到来是好于还是坏于预期时也是如此。股市历史充满了保证会发生但不会发生的预期。</blockquote></p><p> It can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.</p><p><blockquote>翻阅庞大的数据库来查看某种模式是否真的存在可能会很乏味。但努力是值得的。虽然严格的统计数据并不能保证你能跑赢市场，但如果你在统计数据上马虎、前后矛盾，你肯定会输给市场。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell<blockquote>观点： 市场分析师无法就股市下一步走势达成一致。因此，在购买或出售之前，请仔细检查数据</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell<blockquote>观点： 市场分析师无法就股市下一步走势达成一致。因此，在购买或出售之前，请仔细检查数据</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market Watch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-26 11:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s an urgent question, since the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个紧迫的问题，因为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗集团</a>经济意外指数（CESI）在连续上涨一年多后，已经连续两个月为负。CESI衡量最新经济新闻偏离华尔街共识的程度。因此，过去两个月持续为负的 CESI 读数意味着总体而言，经济消息比预期更糟。</blockquote></p><p> Is it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?</p><p><blockquote>对于股票投资者来说，最近发布的美国经济新闻明显差于预期，这是好消息还是坏消息？</blockquote></p><p> The latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团经济意外指数（CESI）的最新读数为负29.2。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>10天前，它甚至更负面，为负61.7。过去 18 年的平均值为 4.6。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd20c01571a824c8113089a65b814bb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> There is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.</p><p><blockquote>我监控的顾问们对这些最新读数意味着什么没有达成共识。一些人认为这是个好消息，反向理论认为，比预期更糟糕的消息构成了美国牛市可能攀升的 “担忧之墙”。另一些人则认为，你不能粉饰比预期更糟糕的经济新闻。</blockquote></p><p> To help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助解决他们的分歧，我分析了2003年的每日CESI数据。具体来说，我测量了它与标普500 sSPX 的相关性，在接下来的一个月、一个季度、六个月的回报率为 +0.15%，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>年。我没有想出任何符合传统统计显著性标准的东西。</blockquote></p><p> A summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&amp;P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.</p><p><blockquote>我的发现总结如下图所示。请注意，无论 CESI 是正还是负，标普500的平均回报率几乎相同，呈上升趋势或下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65016b28c482526ac92a5d6035ba9ed9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> These findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”</p><p><blockquote>这些发现并不是对CESI本身的批评。花旗集团创建该指数是为了给外汇交易者提供一个有用的工具。花旗集团表示，CESI“是一个独特的专有设计的完美例子，它对讨论它的人几乎没有任何影响……它并不打算用于股票价格。”</blockquote></p><p> There’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.</p><p><blockquote>这里还有一个更广泛的教训需要我们学习： 我们需要让直觉接受经验现实的检验。当我们的预感似乎如此明显地正确时，这一点就显得尤为重要--当经济消息的到来是好于还是坏于预期时也是如此。股市历史充满了保证会发生但不会发生的预期。</blockquote></p><p> It can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.</p><p><blockquote>翻阅庞大的数据库来查看某种模式是否真的存在可能会很乏味。但努力是值得的。虽然严格的统计数据并不能保证你能跑赢市场，但如果你在统计数据上马虎、前后矛盾，你肯定会输给市场。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page\">Market Watch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175726457","content_text":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.\nIs it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?\nThe latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. Just 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.\n\nThere is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.\nTo help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and one year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.\nA summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.\n\nThese findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”\nThere’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.\nIt can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859240748,"gmtCreate":1634703759097,"gmtModify":1634703760444,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This is a saga that is just beginning to unfold. We can expect more plot twists and turns along the way.&nbsp;","listText":"This is a saga that is just beginning to unfold. We can expect more plot twists and turns along the way.&nbsp;","text":"This is a saga that is just beginning to unfold. We can expect more plot twists and turns along the way.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859240748","repostId":"1123194504","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123194504","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634699967,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1123194504?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-20 11:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What actually happened during GameStop mania?<blockquote>游戏驿站狂热期间到底发生了什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123194504","media":"CNN Business","summary":"London (CNN Business) - In late January, there was one question on the minds of investors: How did a","content":"<p><div> London (CNN Business) - In late January, there was one question on the minds of investors: How did a struggling mall-based video game retailer became Wall Street's hottest stock, seemingly overnight? ...</p><p><blockquote><div>伦敦（CNN商业）-1月下旬，投资者心中有一个问题：一家苦苦挣扎的商场视频游戏零售商是如何成为华尔街最热门的股票的，似乎是在一夜之间？...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/19/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/19/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What actually happened during GameStop mania?<blockquote>游戏驿站狂热期间到底发生了什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat actually happened during GameStop mania?<blockquote>游戏驿站狂热期间到底发生了什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-20 11:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> London (CNN Business) - In late January, there was one question on the minds of investors: How did a struggling mall-based video game retailer became Wall Street's hottest stock, seemingly overnight? ...</p><p><blockquote><div>伦敦（CNN商业）-1月下旬，投资者心中有一个问题：一家苦苦挣扎的商场视频游戏零售商是如何成为华尔街最热门的股票的，似乎是在一夜之间？...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/19/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/19/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/19/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/19/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123194504","content_text":"London (CNN Business) - In late January, there was one question on the minds of investors: How did a struggling mall-based video game retailer became Wall Street's hottest stock, seemingly overnight?\nNow, after months of research, the industry's top regulator has answers — and its findings could pave the way for major reforms to how financial markets function as amateur traders remain a powerful force.\nWhat's happening: The US Securities and Exchange Commission just released a44-page reportexaminingGameStop(GME)mania, the early 2021 phenomenon in which the company's shares, plugged by enthusiasts on social media, rocketed about 2,700% in a matter of weeks.\nOther companies, including movie theater chain AMC Entertainment(AMC), electronics company Koss(KOSS) and clothing chain Express(EXPR), also logged astronomical gains as online hype reached a fever pitch.\nThe report is full of interesting findings about the so-called \"meme stock\" craze. Here are some of the highlights.\nIt really was wild.The SEC found that the number of unique accounts trading GameStop on a given day rose to nearly 900,000 by Jan. 27, up from fewer than 10,000 at the beginning of the month.\nAnd the volume of stock changing hands was massive. Between Jan. 13 and Jan. 29, an average of 100 million GameStop shares were traded per day, up 1,400% from the 2020 average.\nThe action wasn't just limited to GameStop. More than 100 stocks \"experienced large price moves or increased trading volume that significantly exceeded broader market movements,\" the SEC said.\nSome theories were off. One reason GameStop generated so much attention was because it fit a compelling David versus Goliath narrative, in which a band of renegade traders coordinating on platforms like Reddit successfully took on big hedge funds that had placed bets against GameStop. When the company's share price rose dramatically, those hedge funds allegedly had to buy stock in the company to cover their positions, triggering even bigger gains.\nThat did happen. But the SEC found that \"such buying was a small fraction of overall buy volume,\" and that it was \"positive sentiment, not the buying-to-cover, that sustained the weeks-long price appreciation of GameStop stock.\"\nRobinhood is under the microscope. The SEC thinks regulators should take a closer look at how popular trading apps function. That could put pressure on the company, which went public in July.\n\"Consideration should be given to whether game-like features and celebratory animations that are likely intended to create positive feedback from trading lead investors to trade more than they would otherwise,\" the report said.\nThe SEC also said the practice at the center of Robinhood's business model, known as \"payment for order flow,\" could compel the company to find \"novel ways to increase customer trading.\"\nWhen an investor places an order to buy a stock on its app, Robinhood routes the order to a market maker like Citadel Securities, which then handles execution — and pays Robinhood for that privilege. SEC Chair Gary Gensler has previously indicated he's skeptical of payment for order flow.\nBig picture: The report didn't include specific policy recommendations. But it could help Gensler's SEC eventually make changes to how markets function.\n\"January's events gave us an opportunity to consider how we can further our efforts to make the equity markets as fair, orderly and efficient as possible,\" Gensler, who was nominated by President Joe Biden, said in a statement Monday.\nBut SEC Commissioners Hester Peirce and Elad Roisman, who are Republican appointees, said in a separate statement that the report went too far.\n\"In the wake of an anomalous market event, it can be tempting to identify a convenient scapegoat and leverage the event to pursue regulatory actions without regard to the factual record,\" they said, adding that the report, \"finds no causal connection between the meme stock volatility\" and a practice such as payment for order flow \"that has drawn recent popular attention.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":110818587,"gmtCreate":1622437596249,"gmtModify":1634101461951,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Predictions are just opinions until proven otherwise. Buy time and only time alone will tell.","listText":"Predictions are just opinions until proven otherwise. Buy time and only time alone will tell.","text":"Predictions are just opinions until proven otherwise. Buy time and only time alone will tell.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110818587","repostId":"2139487733","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346862816,"gmtCreate":1618022050635,"gmtModify":1634295186514,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Taken a nap too long","listText":"Taken a nap too long","text":"Taken a nap too long","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346862816","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347788792,"gmtCreate":1618531134716,"gmtModify":1634292333506,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Every position is justifiable, until time proves it to be right or wrong.&nbsp;","listText":"Every position is justifiable, until time proves it to be right or wrong.&nbsp;","text":"Every position is justifiable, until time proves it to be right or wrong.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347788792","repostId":"1181372898","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388330743,"gmtCreate":1613019418882,"gmtModify":1703768441630,"author":{"id":"3573703375513385","authorId":"3573703375513385","name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorIdStr":"3573703375513385"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPR\">$Express,(EXPR)$</a>When are you going to express appreciation? 🥺😅","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPR\">$Express,(EXPR)$</a>When are you going to express appreciation? 🥺😅","text":"$Express,(EXPR)$When are you going to express appreciation? 🥺😅","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e22c38f3c9b7d366191dc278a22cddc","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388330743","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}