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MagPie

MagPie

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2021-04-30

Good recovery

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2021-06-20

Healthy corrections are good

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2021-06-13

Good write-up of the intricacies that are present in trading

Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>

2021-04-28

Nice

Apple Could Blow the Top Off Earnings—Again. What That Would Mean for the Stock.<blockquote>苹果可能会再次打破盈利上限。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote>

2021-03-24

Wow

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2021-05-18

Gg

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2021-05-08

Woof woof

Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克将主持“周六夜现场”，狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫</blockquote>

2021-05-13

Good time to load up some stocks

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2021-05-12

Interesting

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2021-05-01

Interesting

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The stock market, commodity markets and fixed-income markets have been on some wild rides the past 18 months. We penned 2021 forecast pieces back in January (read<b>here</b>and<b>here</b>), but a fresh look at things for the balance of the year seems like a good idea with commodity plays on the rise, oil prices coming on strong while other areas of the market are cooling.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给我们带来了一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，还有一个需要关注的关键日期。过去18个月里，股市、大宗商品市场和固定收益市场都经历了一些疯狂的行情。我们早在1月份就撰写了2021年预测文章（阅读<b>在这里</b>和<b>在这里</b>），但随着大宗商品市场的上涨，油价走强，而市场其他领域正在降温，重新审视今年剩余时间的情况似乎是个好主意。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start our analysis with some monthly candlestick charts.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从一些月度烛台图开始我们的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Candlestick AnalysisDow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>烛台分析道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), below, we can see that prices have made a huge rise over the past decade and a very sharp advance since March of 2020. Taking a little liberty in our methodology we can see an 8 to 10 record high advance since the 2020 pandemic low. Notice the slowing pace of the 12-month price momentum study in the lower panel.</p><p><blockquote>在下面道琼斯工业平均指数（道琼斯）的月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格在过去十年中大幅上涨，自2020年3月以来涨幅非常大。在我们的方法上稍微自由一点，我们可以看到自2020年疫情低点以来，有8到10个历史新高的进展。请注意下图中12个月价格动量研究的步伐放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c0c65a961cdf2a9b6bdba9757ca8c5d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&amp;P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) below, we can see another big advance over the past 10 years. The index made a sideways consolidation pattern in 2015-2016 around 2,000 to 2,200 and we have for most part doubled from there. I would not be surprised to see some significant profit-taking as the SPX approached 4,400. Momentum has been slowing here too.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的标普500指数（SPX）月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到过去10年的另一次大幅上涨。该指数在2015-2016年在2,000点至2,200点附近形成了横向盘整模式，我们在很大程度上从那里翻了一番。当SPX接近4,400点时，看到一些重大获利了结，我不会感到惊讶。这里的势头也在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72a594dc06dc6364a1f4432334018a95\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their consolidation pattern in 2018 and 2019 in the 7,000 area. Prices have nearly tripled from their consolidation around 5,000 in 2015-2016. Yes, the momentum study is slowing.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格比2018年和2019年在7,000点区域的盘整模式翻了一番。价格较2015-2016年5,000点左右的盘整上涨了近两倍。是的，动量研究正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a32c8a3b8cbd6d84dc3c316188d0714c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Russell 2000</b></p><p><blockquote><b>罗素2000</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly candlestick chart of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) we can see that prices have more than doubled from their March 2020 low. This could take your breath away. With the string of white candles and weakening momentum we want to be more cautious as we move forward in the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>在这张罗素2000指数(RUT)的月度烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较2020年3月的低点上涨了一倍多。这会让你大吃一惊。随着一串白色蜡烛和势头减弱，我们希望在第三季度前进时更加谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2eb68915aa7fe3a35df2b5cca4c7c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">All these charts (above) show the 8 to 10 record high pattern so we should be on our guard for a top reversal pattern.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些图表（上图）都显示了8到10个创纪录的高点模式，因此我们应该警惕顶部反转模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Advance-Decline Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>进退分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn our attention to the Advance-Decline line.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们把注意力转向涨跌线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily candlestick chart of the DJIA, below, we show the Advance-Decline line which has been moving sideways since early May. This difference between the price action is a bearish divergence but the DJIA is a narrow average with only 30 stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的道琼斯日线烛台图中，我们显示了自五月初以来一直横向移动的上涨-下跌线。价格走势之间的差异是看跌背离，但道琼斯是一个狭窄的平均值，只有30只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af49f53b61d7234c47302a43ef8fc54\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&amp;P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the S&amp;P 500 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we can see that prices and the Advance-Decline line are pointed up so a bearish divergence has not started.</p><p><blockquote>在下面这张标普500及其上涨-下跌线的图表中，我们可以看到价格和上涨-下跌线向上，因此看跌背离尚未开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f76b13060f5ac582155923264b7fb2f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see a significant bearish divergence. The Nasdaq has been making new highs but the Advance-Decline line has been moving sideways to lower from February.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克图表中，我们可以看到显着的看跌背离。纳斯达克一直在创出新高，但涨跌幅线自二月份以来一直横向走低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c202ca833085d8ae21f804e01da1d20e\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq 100</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克100</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of Nasdaq 100 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we see prices and the indicator going up together. No bearish divergence here.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02f49df814666506de6bd3a8f8cff358\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Sectors</b></p><p><blockquote>在下面这张纳斯达克100指数及其涨跌幅线的图表中，我们看到价格和指标一起上涨。这里没有看跌背离。<b>部门</b></blockquote></p><p> The marketplace can be broken down into 11 sectors but I want to cover just part of the list today.<b>Energy</b>In this weekly candlestick chart of the (XLE) , the S&amp;P Energy sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their pandemic low. Trading volume has been very heavy and the weekly On-Balance-Volume has been stalled the past four months. The 12-week price momentum study has been weakening for a bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>市场可以分为11个部分，但我今天只想介绍其中的一部分。<b>能源</b>在下面的标准普尔能源行业ETF(XLE)的周线烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点翻了一番。过去四个月，交易量非常大，每周余额交易量停滞不前。12周价格动量研究因看跌背离而减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c7c0cb796bbdd57de9aba933c615ce\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Two energy names that could rally further in the third quarter are EOG Resources (EOG) and ConocoPhillips (COP) . Here are the charts.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度可能进一步上涨的两家能源公司是EOG Resources(EOG)和康菲石油公司(COP)。这是图表。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d2fc7721f85cac4b418a821156c714f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874820e1c1c54a567c399f5129e88676\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc072387bc975d38d92af5b6b3de16ac\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2822d20c835ce4f4860d5eb45212cb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLF) ,&nbsp; the Financial sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have begun a topping phase. Prices have broken below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened from early June and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has fallen below the zero line for an outright sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>在下面金融板块ETF(XLF)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到价格已经开始见顶阶段。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。自6月初以来，平衡成交量线已走弱，移动平均线收敛背离(MACD)振荡器已跌破零线，发出直接卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddfbb55fad602b4a29ff4ef1ba47e0f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of the (XLK) , the Technology sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have more than doubled from their pandemic low. The trading volume has diminished since March 2020 and the weekly On-Balance-Volume line has been stuck in a sideways trend for the past 12 months. The 12-week price momentum study in the bottom panel shows lower highs being made the past year. This is a significant bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的科技行业ETF(XLK)的每周日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点上涨了一倍多。自2020年3月以来，交易量一直在减少，每周平衡交易量线在过去12个月中一直处于横盘趋势。底部面板中的12周价格动量研究显示，过去一年的高点较低。这是一个显着的看跌背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d9a652c4c72b421556bfbd90dd8d44\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工业</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLI) &nbsp;, the Industrial sector ETF, below, we can see a weakening picture. Prices have slipped below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened the past two months and the MACD oscillator is below the zero line in sell territory.</p><p><blockquote>在下面工业板块ETF(XLI)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到疲软的情况。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。在过去的两个月里，平衡成交量线已经走弱，MACD振荡指标低于卖出区域的零线。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47838029e80d6b87a83abb9f1352bdaf\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债券</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Point and Figure chart of the (TLT) , the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, below, we can see a potential upside price target in the $165 area.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的iShares 20+年期国债ETF(TLT)的每日点数图中，我们可以看到165美元区域的潜在上行目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/587f7bae63415985c849540d27b7ffaa\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"992\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>U.S. Dollar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美元</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Japanese candlestick chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we can see that prices have stopped short of a test of its late March/early April highs. DXY could make a slow drift downward to retest its May lows.</p><p><blockquote>在美元指数（DXY）的每日日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格已经停止测试3月底/4月初的高点。DXY可能会缓慢向下漂移，重新测试5月份的低点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c086d11fb1d31f2710dc3752d158a2e7\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Mark Your Calendars</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标记您的日历</b></blockquote></p><p> A technical service that I have been using since the mid-1990s (www.pfr.com) is anticipating a large-scale \"trend change\" on or about Aug. 2 and this bears watching. This could mark the start of perhaps a 10% correction in the major averages. The next trend change is anticipated for late October, which could be the start of a year-end rally. We want to pay closer attention to the advance-decline numbers and price action as we approach Aug. 2.</p><p><blockquote>我自20世纪90年代中期以来一直使用的一项技术服务(www.pfr.com)预计8月2日左右将出现大规模“趋势变化”，这值得关注。这可能标志着主要平均指数可能出现10%的回调。下一次趋势变化预计将在10月下旬，这可能是年底反弹的开始。随着8月2日的临近，我们希望密切关注涨跌数据和价格走势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sentiment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>情绪</b></blockquote></p><p> No discussion about the stock market would be complete without some discussion of sentiment. There are plenty of \"signs\" of the stock market being out over its skis.</p><p><blockquote>如果不讨论情绪，任何关于股市的讨论都是不完整的。有很多“迹象”表明股市正在下滑。</blockquote></p><p> I see a number of market letters and commentary from fellow technical analysts and they are all bullish. I get emails from Real Money subscribers asking about this stock or that stock and I have two observations:</p><p><blockquote>我看到了许多来自其他技术分析师的市场信件和评论，他们都是看涨的。我收到来自Real Money订阅者的电子邮件，询问这只股票或那只股票，我有两个观察结果：</blockquote></p><p> 1. The names they are asking about seem to be more speculative in nature. I cannot remember the last time someone emailed me about a boring utility stock.</p><p><blockquote>1.他们询问的名字似乎更具投机性质。我不记得上次有人给我发电子邮件询问无聊的公用事业股票是什么时候了。</blockquote></p><p> 2. The second thing that has struck me about the emails is the failure to recognize risk. Everyone wants to know the next highest price target but they never ask about where to move a stop up.</p><p><blockquote>2.电子邮件给我留下深刻印象的第二件事是没有认识到风险。每个人都想知道下一个最高价格目标，但他们从不问在哪里移动止损。</blockquote></p><p> Sentiment is not a precise indicator and much of it is anecdotal in nature and hard to quantify. The anticipated Robinhood IPO could mark a turning point.</p><p><blockquote>情绪不是一个精确的指标，其中大部分本质上是轶事，很难量化。预期的Robinhood IPO可能标志着一个转折点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom-Line Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线策略</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing and traders need to start leaning in the other direction.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给了我们一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，交易者需要开始向另一个方向倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> Consider adding to commodity plays as they could be the outperformers of the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>考虑增加大宗商品投资，因为它们可能是第三季度表现出色的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consider becoming a scale-up profit taker. Continue to raise your stop protection to lock in more gains. Pay closer attention to where in the range prices are closing. Highs are typically made when prices close near the high of the day.Is the On-Balance-Volume line weakening as volume increases on days when the market or your favorite stock declines?</p><p><blockquote>考虑成为规模扩大的获利者。继续提高止损保护，锁定更多收益。密切关注价格收盘区间。高点通常是在价格接近当天高点时形成的。当市场或您最喜欢的股票下跌时，平衡成交量线是否会随着成交量增加而减弱？</blockquote></p><p> Pay closer attention to the news and watch for stocks and the market to decline on bullish news -- this tells us that the news has been discounted.</p><p><blockquote>密切关注新闻，观察股票和市场因看涨消息而下跌——这告诉我们消息已经打折。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Half 2021: Market Forecasts, Thoughts and Observations<blockquote>2021年下半年：市场预测、思考与观察</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSecond-Half 2021: Market Forecasts, Thoughts and Observations<blockquote>2021年下半年：市场预测、思考与观察</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-04 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing -- and one key date to keep an eye on.  The stock market, commodity markets and fixed-income markets have been on some wild rides the past 18 months. We penned 2021 forecast pieces back in January (read<b>here</b>and<b>here</b>), but a fresh look at things for the balance of the year seems like a good idea with commodity plays on the rise, oil prices coming on strong while other areas of the market are cooling.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给我们带来了一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，还有一个需要关注的关键日期。过去18个月里，股市、大宗商品市场和固定收益市场都经历了一些疯狂的行情。我们早在1月份就撰写了2021年预测文章（阅读<b>在这里</b>和<b>在这里</b>），但随着大宗商品市场的上涨，油价走强，而市场其他领域正在降温，重新审视今年剩余时间的情况似乎是个好主意。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start our analysis with some monthly candlestick charts.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从一些月度烛台图开始我们的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Candlestick AnalysisDow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>烛台分析道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), below, we can see that prices have made a huge rise over the past decade and a very sharp advance since March of 2020. Taking a little liberty in our methodology we can see an 8 to 10 record high advance since the 2020 pandemic low. Notice the slowing pace of the 12-month price momentum study in the lower panel.</p><p><blockquote>在下面道琼斯工业平均指数（道琼斯）的月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格在过去十年中大幅上涨，自2020年3月以来涨幅非常大。在我们的方法上稍微自由一点，我们可以看到自2020年疫情低点以来，有8到10个历史新高的进展。请注意下图中12个月价格动量研究的步伐放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c0c65a961cdf2a9b6bdba9757ca8c5d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&amp;P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) below, we can see another big advance over the past 10 years. The index made a sideways consolidation pattern in 2015-2016 around 2,000 to 2,200 and we have for most part doubled from there. I would not be surprised to see some significant profit-taking as the SPX approached 4,400. Momentum has been slowing here too.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的标普500指数（SPX）月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到过去10年的另一次大幅上涨。该指数在2015-2016年在2,000点至2,200点附近形成了横向盘整模式，我们在很大程度上从那里翻了一番。当SPX接近4,400点时，看到一些重大获利了结，我不会感到惊讶。这里的势头也在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72a594dc06dc6364a1f4432334018a95\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their consolidation pattern in 2018 and 2019 in the 7,000 area. Prices have nearly tripled from their consolidation around 5,000 in 2015-2016. Yes, the momentum study is slowing.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格比2018年和2019年在7,000点区域的盘整模式翻了一番。价格较2015-2016年5,000点左右的盘整上涨了近两倍。是的，动量研究正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a32c8a3b8cbd6d84dc3c316188d0714c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Russell 2000</b></p><p><blockquote><b>罗素2000</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly candlestick chart of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) we can see that prices have more than doubled from their March 2020 low. This could take your breath away. With the string of white candles and weakening momentum we want to be more cautious as we move forward in the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>在这张罗素2000指数(RUT)的月度烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较2020年3月的低点上涨了一倍多。这会让你大吃一惊。随着一串白色蜡烛和势头减弱，我们希望在第三季度前进时更加谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2eb68915aa7fe3a35df2b5cca4c7c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">All these charts (above) show the 8 to 10 record high pattern so we should be on our guard for a top reversal pattern.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些图表（上图）都显示了8到10个创纪录的高点模式，因此我们应该警惕顶部反转模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Advance-Decline Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>进退分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn our attention to the Advance-Decline line.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们把注意力转向涨跌线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily candlestick chart of the DJIA, below, we show the Advance-Decline line which has been moving sideways since early May. This difference between the price action is a bearish divergence but the DJIA is a narrow average with only 30 stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的道琼斯日线烛台图中，我们显示了自五月初以来一直横向移动的上涨-下跌线。价格走势之间的差异是看跌背离，但道琼斯是一个狭窄的平均值，只有30只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af49f53b61d7234c47302a43ef8fc54\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&amp;P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the S&amp;P 500 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we can see that prices and the Advance-Decline line are pointed up so a bearish divergence has not started.</p><p><blockquote>在下面这张标普500及其上涨-下跌线的图表中，我们可以看到价格和上涨-下跌线向上，因此看跌背离尚未开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f76b13060f5ac582155923264b7fb2f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see a significant bearish divergence. The Nasdaq has been making new highs but the Advance-Decline line has been moving sideways to lower from February.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克图表中，我们可以看到显着的看跌背离。纳斯达克一直在创出新高，但涨跌幅线自二月份以来一直横向走低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c202ca833085d8ae21f804e01da1d20e\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq 100</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克100</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of Nasdaq 100 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we see prices and the indicator going up together. No bearish divergence here.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02f49df814666506de6bd3a8f8cff358\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Sectors</b></p><p><blockquote>在下面这张纳斯达克100指数及其涨跌幅线的图表中，我们看到价格和指标一起上涨。这里没有看跌背离。<b>部门</b></blockquote></p><p> The marketplace can be broken down into 11 sectors but I want to cover just part of the list today.<b>Energy</b>In this weekly candlestick chart of the (XLE) , the S&amp;P Energy sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their pandemic low. Trading volume has been very heavy and the weekly On-Balance-Volume has been stalled the past four months. The 12-week price momentum study has been weakening for a bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>市场可以分为11个部分，但我今天只想介绍其中的一部分。<b>能源</b>在下面的标准普尔能源行业ETF(XLE)的周线烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点翻了一番。过去四个月，交易量非常大，每周余额交易量停滞不前。12周价格动量研究因看跌背离而减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c7c0cb796bbdd57de9aba933c615ce\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Two energy names that could rally further in the third quarter are EOG Resources (EOG) and ConocoPhillips (COP) . Here are the charts.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度可能进一步上涨的两家能源公司是EOG Resources(EOG)和康菲石油公司(COP)。这是图表。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d2fc7721f85cac4b418a821156c714f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874820e1c1c54a567c399f5129e88676\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc072387bc975d38d92af5b6b3de16ac\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2822d20c835ce4f4860d5eb45212cb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLF) ,&nbsp; the Financial sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have begun a topping phase. Prices have broken below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened from early June and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has fallen below the zero line for an outright sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>在下面金融板块ETF(XLF)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到价格已经开始见顶阶段。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。自6月初以来，平衡成交量线已走弱，移动平均线收敛背离(MACD)振荡器已跌破零线，发出直接卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddfbb55fad602b4a29ff4ef1ba47e0f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of the (XLK) , the Technology sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have more than doubled from their pandemic low. The trading volume has diminished since March 2020 and the weekly On-Balance-Volume line has been stuck in a sideways trend for the past 12 months. The 12-week price momentum study in the bottom panel shows lower highs being made the past year. This is a significant bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的科技行业ETF(XLK)的每周日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点上涨了一倍多。自2020年3月以来，交易量一直在减少，每周平衡交易量线在过去12个月中一直处于横盘趋势。底部面板中的12周价格动量研究显示，过去一年的高点较低。这是一个显着的看跌背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d9a652c4c72b421556bfbd90dd8d44\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工业</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLI) &nbsp;, the Industrial sector ETF, below, we can see a weakening picture. Prices have slipped below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened the past two months and the MACD oscillator is below the zero line in sell territory.</p><p><blockquote>在下面工业板块ETF(XLI)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到疲软的情况。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。在过去的两个月里，平衡成交量线已经走弱，MACD振荡指标低于卖出区域的零线。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47838029e80d6b87a83abb9f1352bdaf\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债券</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Point and Figure chart of the (TLT) , the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, below, we can see a potential upside price target in the $165 area.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的iShares 20+年期国债ETF(TLT)的每日点数图中，我们可以看到165美元区域的潜在上行目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/587f7bae63415985c849540d27b7ffaa\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"992\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>U.S. Dollar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美元</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Japanese candlestick chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we can see that prices have stopped short of a test of its late March/early April highs. DXY could make a slow drift downward to retest its May lows.</p><p><blockquote>在美元指数（DXY）的每日日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格已经停止测试3月底/4月初的高点。DXY可能会缓慢向下漂移，重新测试5月份的低点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c086d11fb1d31f2710dc3752d158a2e7\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Mark Your Calendars</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标记您的日历</b></blockquote></p><p> A technical service that I have been using since the mid-1990s (www.pfr.com) is anticipating a large-scale \"trend change\" on or about Aug. 2 and this bears watching. This could mark the start of perhaps a 10% correction in the major averages. The next trend change is anticipated for late October, which could be the start of a year-end rally. We want to pay closer attention to the advance-decline numbers and price action as we approach Aug. 2.</p><p><blockquote>我自20世纪90年代中期以来一直使用的一项技术服务(www.pfr.com)预计8月2日左右将出现大规模“趋势变化”，这值得关注。这可能标志着主要平均指数可能出现10%的回调。下一次趋势变化预计将在10月下旬，这可能是年底反弹的开始。随着8月2日的临近，我们希望密切关注涨跌数据和价格走势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sentiment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>情绪</b></blockquote></p><p> No discussion about the stock market would be complete without some discussion of sentiment. There are plenty of \"signs\" of the stock market being out over its skis.</p><p><blockquote>如果不讨论情绪，任何关于股市的讨论都是不完整的。有很多“迹象”表明股市正在下滑。</blockquote></p><p> I see a number of market letters and commentary from fellow technical analysts and they are all bullish. I get emails from Real Money subscribers asking about this stock or that stock and I have two observations:</p><p><blockquote>我看到了许多来自其他技术分析师的市场信件和评论，他们都是看涨的。我收到来自Real Money订阅者的电子邮件，询问这只股票或那只股票，我有两个观察结果：</blockquote></p><p> 1. The names they are asking about seem to be more speculative in nature. I cannot remember the last time someone emailed me about a boring utility stock.</p><p><blockquote>1.他们询问的名字似乎更具投机性质。我不记得上次有人给我发电子邮件询问无聊的公用事业股票是什么时候了。</blockquote></p><p> 2. The second thing that has struck me about the emails is the failure to recognize risk. Everyone wants to know the next highest price target but they never ask about where to move a stop up.</p><p><blockquote>2.电子邮件给我留下深刻印象的第二件事是没有认识到风险。每个人都想知道下一个最高价格目标，但他们从不问在哪里移动止损。</blockquote></p><p> Sentiment is not a precise indicator and much of it is anecdotal in nature and hard to quantify. The anticipated Robinhood IPO could mark a turning point.</p><p><blockquote>情绪不是一个精确的指标，其中大部分本质上是轶事，很难量化。预期的Robinhood IPO可能标志着一个转折点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom-Line Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线策略</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing and traders need to start leaning in the other direction.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给了我们一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，交易者需要开始向另一个方向倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> Consider adding to commodity plays as they could be the outperformers of the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>考虑增加大宗商品投资，因为它们可能是第三季度表现出色的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consider becoming a scale-up profit taker. Continue to raise your stop protection to lock in more gains. Pay closer attention to where in the range prices are closing. Highs are typically made when prices close near the high of the day.Is the On-Balance-Volume line weakening as volume increases on days when the market or your favorite stock declines?</p><p><blockquote>考虑成为规模扩大的获利者。继续提高止损保护，锁定更多收益。密切关注价格收盘区间。高点通常是在价格接近当天高点时形成的。当市场或您最喜欢的股票下跌时，平衡成交量线是否会随着成交量增加而减弱？</blockquote></p><p> Pay closer attention to the news and watch for stocks and the market to decline on bullish news -- this tells us that the news has been discounted.</p><p><blockquote>密切关注新闻，观察股票和市场因看涨消息而下跌——这告诉我们消息已经打折。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/second-half-2021-market-forecasts-thoughts-and-observations-15702152?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/second-half-2021-market-forecasts-thoughts-and-observations-15702152?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192425829","content_text":"The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing -- and one key date to keep an eye on.\n\nThe stock market, commodity markets and fixed-income markets have been on some wild rides the past 18 months. We penned 2021 forecast pieces back in January (readhereandhere), but a fresh look at things for the balance of the year seems like a good idea with commodity plays on the rise, oil prices coming on strong while other areas of the market are cooling.\nLet's start our analysis with some monthly candlestick charts.\nCandlestick AnalysisDow Jones Industrials\nIn this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), below, we can see that prices have made a huge rise over the past decade and a very sharp advance since March of 2020. Taking a little liberty in our methodology we can see an 8 to 10 record high advance since the 2020 pandemic low. Notice the slowing pace of the 12-month price momentum study in the lower panel.\nS&P 500\nIn this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) below, we can see another big advance over the past 10 years. The index made a sideways consolidation pattern in 2015-2016 around 2,000 to 2,200 and we have for most part doubled from there. I would not be surprised to see some significant profit-taking as the SPX approached 4,400. Momentum has been slowing here too.\nNasdaq\nIn this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their consolidation pattern in 2018 and 2019 in the 7,000 area. Prices have nearly tripled from their consolidation around 5,000 in 2015-2016. Yes, the momentum study is slowing.\nRussell 2000\nIn this monthly candlestick chart of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) we can see that prices have more than doubled from their March 2020 low. This could take your breath away. With the string of white candles and weakening momentum we want to be more cautious as we move forward in the third quarter.\nAll these charts (above) show the 8 to 10 record high pattern so we should be on our guard for a top reversal pattern.\nAdvance-Decline Analysis\nNow, let's turn our attention to the Advance-Decline line.\nDow Jones Industrials\nIn this daily candlestick chart of the DJIA, below, we show the Advance-Decline line which has been moving sideways since early May. This difference between the price action is a bearish divergence but the DJIA is a narrow average with only 30 stocks.\nS&P 500\nIn this chart of the S&P 500 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we can see that prices and the Advance-Decline line are pointed up so a bearish divergence has not started.\nNasdaq\nIn this chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see a significant bearish divergence. The Nasdaq has been making new highs but the Advance-Decline line has been moving sideways to lower from February.\nNasdaq 100\nIn this chart of Nasdaq 100 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we see prices and the indicator going up together. No bearish divergence here.Sectors\nThe marketplace can be broken down into 11 sectors but I want to cover just part of the list today.EnergyIn this weekly candlestick chart of the (XLE) , the S&P Energy sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their pandemic low. Trading volume has been very heavy and the weekly On-Balance-Volume has been stalled the past four months. The 12-week price momentum study has been weakening for a bearish divergence.\n\nTwo energy names that could rally further in the third quarter are EOG Resources (EOG) and ConocoPhillips (COP) . Here are the charts.\nFinancials\nIn this daily bar chart of the (XLF) ,  the Financial sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have begun a topping phase. Prices have broken below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened from early June and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has fallen below the zero line for an outright sell signal.\nTechnology\nIn this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of the (XLK) , the Technology sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have more than doubled from their pandemic low. The trading volume has diminished since March 2020 and the weekly On-Balance-Volume line has been stuck in a sideways trend for the past 12 months. The 12-week price momentum study in the bottom panel shows lower highs being made the past year. This is a significant bearish divergence.\nIndustrials\nIn this daily bar chart of the (XLI)  , the Industrial sector ETF, below, we can see a weakening picture. Prices have slipped below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened the past two months and the MACD oscillator is below the zero line in sell territory.\nBonds\nIn this daily Point and Figure chart of the (TLT) , the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, below, we can see a potential upside price target in the $165 area.\nU.S. Dollar\nIn this daily Japanese candlestick chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we can see that prices have stopped short of a test of its late March/early April highs. DXY could make a slow drift downward to retest its May lows.\nMark Your Calendars\nA technical service that I have been using since the mid-1990s (www.pfr.com) is anticipating a large-scale \"trend change\" on or about Aug. 2 and this bears watching. This could mark the start of perhaps a 10% correction in the major averages. The next trend change is anticipated for late October, which could be the start of a year-end rally. We want to pay closer attention to the advance-decline numbers and price action as we approach Aug. 2.\nSentiment\nNo discussion about the stock market would be complete without some discussion of sentiment. There are plenty of \"signs\" of the stock market being out over its skis.\nI see a number of market letters and commentary from fellow technical analysts and they are all bullish. I get emails from Real Money subscribers asking about this stock or that stock and I have two observations:\n1. The names they are asking about seem to be more speculative in nature. I cannot remember the last time someone emailed me about a boring utility stock.\n2. The second thing that has struck me about the emails is the failure to recognize risk. Everyone wants to know the next highest price target but they never ask about where to move a stop up.\nSentiment is not a precise indicator and much of it is anecdotal in nature and hard to quantify. The anticipated Robinhood IPO could mark a turning point.\nBottom-Line Strategy\nThe stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing and traders need to start leaning in the other direction.\nConsider adding to commodity plays as they could be the outperformers of the third quarter.\nConsider becoming a scale-up profit taker. Continue to raise your stop protection to lock in more gains. Pay closer attention to where in the range prices are closing. Highs are typically made when prices close near the high of the day.Is the On-Balance-Volume line weakening as volume increases on days when the market or your favorite stock declines?\nPay closer attention to the news and watch for stocks and the market to decline on bullish news -- this tells us that the news has been discounted.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123233181,"gmtCreate":1624423971343,"gmtModify":1631890553330,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice insight","listText":"Nice insight","text":"Nice insight","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123233181","repostId":"1115637073","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164083578,"gmtCreate":1624161549394,"gmtModify":1631890553329,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Healthy corrections are good","listText":"Healthy corrections are good","text":"Healthy corrections are good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164083578","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166525980,"gmtCreate":1624019118340,"gmtModify":1631890553331,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166525980","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148576248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度快于特斯拉，但它的交易价格却有折扣。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）因其强大的市场地位——在中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长和竞争激烈的电动汽车行业的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来在一些激烈的竞争中获胜，包括特斯拉(TSLA)。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们将讨论蔚来的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己明智的决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位于高端SUV领域，专注于智能电动汽车，采用差异化的电池策略。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统[NOMI]，可与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等媲美。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借ES8大获成功带来的装机量和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了ES6和EC6。近日，该公司推出了首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国汽车技术研究中心的数据，如今，蔚来以23%的市场份额成为4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）的7%。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，该战略几乎消除了里程焦虑，而里程焦虑是电动汽车大规模采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，而且该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个电池交换站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池交换战略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务[BaaS]解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约11,000美元。由于成本是电动汽车大规模采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来的电池战略似乎很出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层在2016年推出了EP9，从而出色地创造了该品牌。六辆EP9已以250万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来凭借ES8瞄准了大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华汽车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为他们生产的产品质量低的看法作斗争。这与日本公司在二战后战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是摧毁“中国制造”等同于劣质观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固坚持这种旧观念的投资者将错过投资世界上一些最伟大品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着获得一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括充电车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国的客户服务方面名声不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在进一步挑战极限，推出了蔚来之家（London House）（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（Kenneth Life），其中包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品。蔚来围绕汽车打造生活方式的努力似乎正在发挥作用。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为逃离汽车代工竞争战场的唯一方法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利(RACE)的营业利润率远高于20%，而福特(F)和通用汽车(GM)则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计2021年EBITDA为负2.58亿美元，2022年为正2.06亿美元。预计2021年自由现金流将为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计2021年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到放心，因为该公司在2020年退出时拥有59亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括6亿美元的短期投资，减去约21亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及2021年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在2021年退出时应拥有超过40亿美元的净现金和投资。这是足够的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在2022年产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注预期EV/销售额倍数，这对于尚未盈利的高速增长公司来说是典型的。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为EV/销售额的7至8倍，随后于2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，到2021年1月，蔚来的估值飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的预期销售额为8倍，这要合理得多。尽管TSLA的增长速度是其两倍，但这与TSLA 10.2倍的预期EV/销售额相比仍有很大折扣（预计TSLA 2021年收入将增长57%，而蔚来为117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来有很多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其换电战略高度差异化，且似乎增长迅速，但换电或快充基础设施的最终市场份额仍未定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池交换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式是创新和新的。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然没有盈利。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力改善之前，蔚来仍将是一个“向我展示”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在全球扩张的能力可能会受到中美之间地缘政治紧张局势加剧的限制，在较小程度上也会受到与日欧之间地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度正在增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服内燃机原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其车辆和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于其更快的增长率和更低的市盈率，蔚来的股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度快于特斯拉，但它的交易价格却有折扣。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）因其强大的市场地位——在中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长和竞争激烈的电动汽车行业的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来在一些激烈的竞争中获胜，包括特斯拉(TSLA)。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们将讨论蔚来的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己明智的决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位于高端SUV领域，专注于智能电动汽车，采用差异化的电池策略。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统[NOMI]，可与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等媲美。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借ES8大获成功带来的装机量和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了ES6和EC6。近日，该公司推出了首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国汽车技术研究中心的数据，如今，蔚来以23%的市场份额成为4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）的7%。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，该战略几乎消除了里程焦虑，而里程焦虑是电动汽车大规模采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，而且该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个电池交换站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池交换战略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务[BaaS]解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约11,000美元。由于成本是电动汽车大规模采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来的电池战略似乎很出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层在2016年推出了EP9，从而出色地创造了该品牌。六辆EP9已以250万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来凭借ES8瞄准了大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华汽车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为他们生产的产品质量低的看法作斗争。这与日本公司在二战后战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是摧毁“中国制造”等同于劣质观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固坚持这种旧观念的投资者将错过投资世界上一些最伟大品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着获得一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括充电车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国的客户服务方面名声不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在进一步挑战极限，推出了蔚来之家（London House）（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（Kenneth Life），其中包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品。蔚来围绕汽车打造生活方式的努力似乎正在发挥作用。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为逃离汽车代工竞争战场的唯一方法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利(RACE)的营业利润率远高于20%，而福特(F)和通用汽车(GM)则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计2021年EBITDA为负2.58亿美元，2022年为正2.06亿美元。预计2021年自由现金流将为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计2021年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到放心，因为该公司在2020年退出时拥有59亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括6亿美元的短期投资，减去约21亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及2021年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在2021年退出时应拥有超过40亿美元的净现金和投资。这是足够的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在2022年产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注预期EV/销售额倍数，这对于尚未盈利的高速增长公司来说是典型的。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为EV/销售额的7至8倍，随后于2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，到2021年1月，蔚来的估值飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的预期销售额为8倍，这要合理得多。尽管TSLA的增长速度是其两倍，但这与TSLA 10.2倍的预期EV/销售额相比仍有很大折扣（预计TSLA 2021年收入将增长57%，而蔚来为117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来有很多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其换电战略高度差异化，且似乎增长迅速，但换电或快充基础设施的最终市场份额仍未定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池交换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式是创新和新的。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然没有盈利。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力改善之前，蔚来仍将是一个“向我展示”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在全球扩张的能力可能会受到中美之间地缘政治紧张局势加剧的限制，在较小程度上也会受到与日欧之间地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度正在增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服内燃机原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其车辆和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于其更快的增长率和更低的市盈率，蔚来的股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160158204,"gmtCreate":1623775926408,"gmtModify":1631890553335,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160158204","repostId":"1150591447","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187315664,"gmtCreate":1623740724558,"gmtModify":1631885484687,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to wait and observe again","listText":"Time to wait and observe again","text":"Time to wait and observe again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187315664","repostId":"1126626020","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184906026,"gmtCreate":1623679717065,"gmtModify":1631890553336,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184906026","repostId":"1172057691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172057691","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623672122,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172057691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 20:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172057691","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks are seen opening marginally higher Monday, remaining near record levels, heading into a ","content":"<p>U.S. stocks are seen opening marginally higher Monday, remaining near record levels, heading into a week that includes a keenly-awaited Federal Reserve meeting.</p><p><blockquote>预计美国股市周一小幅高开，仍接近创纪录水平，进入包括备受期待的美联储会议在内的一周。</blockquote></p><p> At 7 AM ET (1200 GMT), the Dow futures contract was up just 5 points, or less than 0.1%, S&amp;P 500 futures traded 3 points, or 0.1%, higher, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 50 points, or 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午7点（格林威治标准时间1200），道指期货合约仅上涨5点，涨幅不到0.1%，标普500期货上涨3点，涨幅0.1%，纳斯达克100期货上涨50点，涨幅0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> The three major indices closed just higher Friday, with the broad-based S&amp;P 500 ending up 0.2%, at a new record high. The blue-chip Dow gained under 0.1% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed 0.4% higher, helped by a rotation back into growth names.</p><p><blockquote>周五三大股指小幅收高，基础广泛的标普500收盘上涨0.2%，创历史新高。蓝筹股道琼斯指数上涨不到0.1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数收盘上涨0.4%，这得益于股票回归成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s two-day policy meeting, ending Wednesday, will likely limit activity in the early part of the week. The central bank is not expected to take any immediate action, but investors will be focusing on the statement to see whether the policy makers open discussions about how and when to taper the $120 billion in monthly central bank bond purchases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储为期两天的政策会议将于周三结束，可能会限制本周初的经济活动。预计央行不会立即采取任何行动，但投资者将关注这份声明，看看政策制定者是否会就如何以及何时缩减每月1200亿美元的央行债券购买展开讨论。</blockquote></p><p> Crude oil prices pushed higher Monday, trading near multi-year highs, helped by an improved outlook for demand as increased Covid-19 vaccinations push global travel back to near normalcy.</p><p><blockquote>原油价格周一走高，交易价格接近多年高点，得益于需求前景改善，因为Covid-19疫苗接种的增加推动全球旅行恢复到接近正常的水平。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. daily air travelers have topped 2 million for the first time since the pandemic began with traffic returning to pre-pandemic levels in North America and much of Europe as lockdowns and other restrictions are being eased, although the U.K. could throw a spanner in the works later Monday.</p><p><blockquote>自大流行开始以来，美国每日航空旅客人数首次突破200万，随着封锁和其他限制的放松，北美和欧洲大部分地区的客流量恢复到大流行前的水平，尽管英国可能会在周一晚些时候采取行动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Novavax(NVAX)</b> – The drugmaker said its Covid-19 vaccine proved 90% effective overall in a late-stage trial, and 93% effective against the most predominant variants of the virus. It also provided 100% protection against moderate and severe disease. Novavax shares surged 10.4% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>诺瓦瓦克斯(NVAX)</b>–该制药商表示，其Covid-19疫苗在后期试验中被证明总体有效率为90%，对病毒最主要变种的有效率为93%。它还提供100%的中度和重度疾病保护。Novavax股价在盘前交易中飙升10.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lordstown Motors(RIDE) </b>– The electric truck maker announced the resignation of CEO Steve Burns and CFO Julio Rodriguez, days after the company warned there was doubt it could continue as a going concern. Lordstown has engaged a search firm to find replacements for Burns and Rodriguez. Shares tumbled 8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>洛兹敦汽车公司(RIDE)</b>-这家电动卡车制造商宣布首席执行官史蒂夫·伯恩斯和首席财务官胡里奥·罗德里格斯辞职，几天前该公司警告称，对其能否继续持续经营表示怀疑。洛兹敦已经聘请了一家猎头公司来寻找伯恩斯和罗德里格斯的替代者。盘前股价下跌8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Phillips(PHG)</b> – Phillips shares slid 4.3% in premarket action after saying it would recall up to 4 million CPAP machines due to potential toxicity risks. The foam used in the sleep apnea treatment devices could degrade and potentially become toxic. The Dutch medical equipment company is the largest producer of CPAP machines.</p><p><blockquote><b>菲利普斯(PHG)</b>-菲利普斯表示，由于潜在的毒性风险，将召回多达400万台CPAP机器，该公司股价在盘前下跌4.3%。睡眠呼吸暂停治疗装置中使用的泡沫可能降解并可能变得有毒。这家荷兰医疗设备公司是CPAP机器的最大生产商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG)</b> – Raymond James upgraded the restaurant chain’s shares to “strong buy” from “outperform”, predicting that recent menu price increases would push second-half profit well beyond consensus forecasts. Chipotle shares gained 1.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>Chipotle墨西哥烧烤店(CMG)</b>–Raymond James将这家连锁餐厅的股票评级从“跑赢大盘”上调至“强力买入”，预计近期菜单价格上涨将推动下半年利润远超市场普遍预期。Chipotle股价盘前上涨1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ferrari(RACE)</b> – Goldman Sachs gave the automaker’s stock a double downgrade, moving its rating to “sell” from “buy”, noting increased capital spending and a limited scope for positive earnings revisions. Ferrari fell 2.7% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>法拉利（赛车）</b>-高盛对这家汽车制造商的股票进行了双重下调，将其评级从“买入”上调至“卖出”，并指出资本支出增加，盈利积极修正的空间有限。法拉利盘前下跌2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GlaxoSmithKline(GSK)</b> – The drugmaker is collaborating with clinical-stage biopharmaceutical companyiTeos Therapeutics(ITOS) to develop and commercialize EOS-448, a monoclonal antibody in early-stage development as a possible cancer treatment. iTeos soared 60.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>葛兰素史克（GSK）</b>-该制药商正在与临床阶段生物制药公司Iteos Therapeutics(ITOS)合作开发和商业化EOS-448，这是一种处于早期开发阶段的单克隆抗体，作为一种可能的癌症治疗方法。iTeos盘前飙升60.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AstraZeneca(AZN) </b>– The drugmaker’s Covid-19 vaccine has a favorable risk/reward profile for all age groups and particularly for those 60 years and older, according to the head of the European Medicines Agency’s Covid-19 task force. Marco Cavaleri said his quote in an Italian newspaper saying the vaccine should not be given to those over 60 was not interpreted correctly.</p><p><blockquote><b>阿斯利康(AZN)</b>-根据欧洲药品管理局Covid-19工作组负责人的说法，该制药商的Covid-19疫苗对所有年龄组，特别是60岁及以上的人都具有良好的风险/回报特征。马尔科·卡瓦莱里(Marco Cavaleri)表示，他在一家意大利报纸上引用的不应给60岁以上的人接种疫苗的言论没有得到正确解释。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Royal Dutch Shell(RDS.A)</b> – The energy giant is considering a sale of shale assets in Texas, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to Reuters. Such a could be worth more than $10 billion. Shares gained 2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>荷兰皇家壳牌公司(RDS.A)</b>-据接受路透社采访的知情人士透露，这家能源巨头正在考虑出售德克萨斯州的页岩资产。这样的价值可能超过100亿美元。股价在盘前交易中上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oatly(OTLY) </b>– The oat milk maker received a mixed batch of initial ratings from a handful of investment firms. Oatly received ratings of “perform” (Oppenheimer), “outperform” (Credit Suisse), “equal-weight” (Morgan Stanley), “overweight” (Piper Sandler), “buy” (Jefferies, Guggenheim), “neutral” (JPMorgan Chase) and “sector perform” (RBC Capital). All agree on growth prospects for Oatly – but some firms feel those prospects are already priced into the stock.</p><p><blockquote><b>燕麦(OTLY)</b>-这家燕麦牛奶制造商从少数投资公司获得了不同的初始评级。Oatly获得“表现”（Oppenheimer）、“跑赢大盘”（瑞士信贷）、“同等权重”（摩根士丹利）、“跑赢大盘”（Piper Sandler）、“买入”（Jefferies、Guggenheim）、“中性”的评级”（摩根大通）和“行业表现”（加拿大皇家银行资本）。所有人都同意Oatly的增长前景，但一些公司认为这些前景已经反映在该股的价格中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Qualcomm(QCOM)</b> – Qualcomm is prepared to invest in UK chipmaker Arm if its $40 billion deal to be acquired byNvidia(NVDA) is blocked by regulators, according to the Telegraph newspaper quoting CEO Cristiano Amon.</p><p><blockquote><b>高通(QCOM)</b>-据《每日电讯报》援引英国芯片制造商Arm首席执行官克里斯蒂亚诺·阿蒙(Cristiano Amon)的400亿美元收购交易被监管机构阻止，高通准备投资英国芯片制造商Arm。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Equinix(EQIX)</b> – Equinix struck a deal for additional joint ventures with Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund to expand its data center operations there. The deal will see the fund invest an additional $3.9 billion, bringing the total investment to more than $6.9 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>Equinix(EQIX)</b>-Equinix与新加坡主权财富基金达成了额外合资企业的协议，以扩大其在新加坡的数据中心业务。这笔交易将使该基金额外投资39亿美元，使总投资超过69亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>NextGen Acquisition(NGAC) </b>– The special purpose acquisition company is in advanced talks to take Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Orbit public, according to Sky News. Sky said a deal valuing Virgin Orbit at about $3 billion could be announced within the coming weeks. NextGen shares gained 1.9% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>下一代收购(NGAC)</b>-据天空新闻报道，这家特殊目的收购公司正在就理查德·布兰森爵士的维珍轨道公司上市进行深入谈判。天空电视台表示，维珍轨道公司估值约为30亿美元的交易可能会在未来几周内宣布。NextGen股价盘前上涨1.9%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 20:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks are seen opening marginally higher Monday, remaining near record levels, heading into a week that includes a keenly-awaited Federal Reserve meeting.</p><p><blockquote>预计美国股市周一小幅高开，仍接近创纪录水平，进入包括备受期待的美联储会议在内的一周。</blockquote></p><p> At 7 AM ET (1200 GMT), the Dow futures contract was up just 5 points, or less than 0.1%, S&amp;P 500 futures traded 3 points, or 0.1%, higher, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 50 points, or 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午7点（格林威治标准时间1200），道指期货合约仅上涨5点，涨幅不到0.1%，标普500期货上涨3点，涨幅0.1%，纳斯达克100期货上涨50点，涨幅0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> The three major indices closed just higher Friday, with the broad-based S&amp;P 500 ending up 0.2%, at a new record high. The blue-chip Dow gained under 0.1% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed 0.4% higher, helped by a rotation back into growth names.</p><p><blockquote>周五三大股指小幅收高，基础广泛的标普500收盘上涨0.2%，创历史新高。蓝筹股道琼斯指数上涨不到0.1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数收盘上涨0.4%，这得益于股票回归成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s two-day policy meeting, ending Wednesday, will likely limit activity in the early part of the week. The central bank is not expected to take any immediate action, but investors will be focusing on the statement to see whether the policy makers open discussions about how and when to taper the $120 billion in monthly central bank bond purchases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储为期两天的政策会议将于周三结束，可能会限制本周初的经济活动。预计央行不会立即采取任何行动，但投资者将关注这份声明，看看政策制定者是否会就如何以及何时缩减每月1200亿美元的央行债券购买展开讨论。</blockquote></p><p> Crude oil prices pushed higher Monday, trading near multi-year highs, helped by an improved outlook for demand as increased Covid-19 vaccinations push global travel back to near normalcy.</p><p><blockquote>原油价格周一走高，交易价格接近多年高点，得益于需求前景改善，因为Covid-19疫苗接种的增加推动全球旅行恢复到接近正常的水平。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. daily air travelers have topped 2 million for the first time since the pandemic began with traffic returning to pre-pandemic levels in North America and much of Europe as lockdowns and other restrictions are being eased, although the U.K. could throw a spanner in the works later Monday.</p><p><blockquote>自大流行开始以来，美国每日航空旅客人数首次突破200万，随着封锁和其他限制的放松，北美和欧洲大部分地区的客流量恢复到大流行前的水平，尽管英国可能会在周一晚些时候采取行动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Novavax(NVAX)</b> – The drugmaker said its Covid-19 vaccine proved 90% effective overall in a late-stage trial, and 93% effective against the most predominant variants of the virus. It also provided 100% protection against moderate and severe disease. Novavax shares surged 10.4% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>诺瓦瓦克斯(NVAX)</b>–该制药商表示，其Covid-19疫苗在后期试验中被证明总体有效率为90%，对病毒最主要变种的有效率为93%。它还提供100%的中度和重度疾病保护。Novavax股价在盘前交易中飙升10.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lordstown Motors(RIDE) </b>– The electric truck maker announced the resignation of CEO Steve Burns and CFO Julio Rodriguez, days after the company warned there was doubt it could continue as a going concern. Lordstown has engaged a search firm to find replacements for Burns and Rodriguez. Shares tumbled 8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>洛兹敦汽车公司(RIDE)</b>-这家电动卡车制造商宣布首席执行官史蒂夫·伯恩斯和首席财务官胡里奥·罗德里格斯辞职，几天前该公司警告称，对其能否继续持续经营表示怀疑。洛兹敦已经聘请了一家猎头公司来寻找伯恩斯和罗德里格斯的替代者。盘前股价下跌8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Phillips(PHG)</b> – Phillips shares slid 4.3% in premarket action after saying it would recall up to 4 million CPAP machines due to potential toxicity risks. The foam used in the sleep apnea treatment devices could degrade and potentially become toxic. The Dutch medical equipment company is the largest producer of CPAP machines.</p><p><blockquote><b>菲利普斯(PHG)</b>-菲利普斯表示，由于潜在的毒性风险，将召回多达400万台CPAP机器，该公司股价在盘前下跌4.3%。睡眠呼吸暂停治疗装置中使用的泡沫可能降解并可能变得有毒。这家荷兰医疗设备公司是CPAP机器的最大生产商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG)</b> – Raymond James upgraded the restaurant chain’s shares to “strong buy” from “outperform”, predicting that recent menu price increases would push second-half profit well beyond consensus forecasts. Chipotle shares gained 1.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>Chipotle墨西哥烧烤店(CMG)</b>–Raymond James将这家连锁餐厅的股票评级从“跑赢大盘”上调至“强力买入”，预计近期菜单价格上涨将推动下半年利润远超市场普遍预期。Chipotle股价盘前上涨1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ferrari(RACE)</b> – Goldman Sachs gave the automaker’s stock a double downgrade, moving its rating to “sell” from “buy”, noting increased capital spending and a limited scope for positive earnings revisions. Ferrari fell 2.7% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>法拉利（赛车）</b>-高盛对这家汽车制造商的股票进行了双重下调，将其评级从“买入”上调至“卖出”，并指出资本支出增加，盈利积极修正的空间有限。法拉利盘前下跌2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GlaxoSmithKline(GSK)</b> – The drugmaker is collaborating with clinical-stage biopharmaceutical companyiTeos Therapeutics(ITOS) to develop and commercialize EOS-448, a monoclonal antibody in early-stage development as a possible cancer treatment. iTeos soared 60.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>葛兰素史克（GSK）</b>-该制药商正在与临床阶段生物制药公司Iteos Therapeutics(ITOS)合作开发和商业化EOS-448，这是一种处于早期开发阶段的单克隆抗体，作为一种可能的癌症治疗方法。iTeos盘前飙升60.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AstraZeneca(AZN) </b>– The drugmaker’s Covid-19 vaccine has a favorable risk/reward profile for all age groups and particularly for those 60 years and older, according to the head of the European Medicines Agency’s Covid-19 task force. Marco Cavaleri said his quote in an Italian newspaper saying the vaccine should not be given to those over 60 was not interpreted correctly.</p><p><blockquote><b>阿斯利康(AZN)</b>-根据欧洲药品管理局Covid-19工作组负责人的说法，该制药商的Covid-19疫苗对所有年龄组，特别是60岁及以上的人都具有良好的风险/回报特征。马尔科·卡瓦莱里(Marco Cavaleri)表示，他在一家意大利报纸上引用的不应给60岁以上的人接种疫苗的言论没有得到正确解释。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Royal Dutch Shell(RDS.A)</b> – The energy giant is considering a sale of shale assets in Texas, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to Reuters. Such a could be worth more than $10 billion. Shares gained 2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>荷兰皇家壳牌公司(RDS.A)</b>-据接受路透社采访的知情人士透露，这家能源巨头正在考虑出售德克萨斯州的页岩资产。这样的价值可能超过100亿美元。股价在盘前交易中上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oatly(OTLY) </b>– The oat milk maker received a mixed batch of initial ratings from a handful of investment firms. Oatly received ratings of “perform” (Oppenheimer), “outperform” (Credit Suisse), “equal-weight” (Morgan Stanley), “overweight” (Piper Sandler), “buy” (Jefferies, Guggenheim), “neutral” (JPMorgan Chase) and “sector perform” (RBC Capital). All agree on growth prospects for Oatly – but some firms feel those prospects are already priced into the stock.</p><p><blockquote><b>燕麦(OTLY)</b>-这家燕麦牛奶制造商从少数投资公司获得了不同的初始评级。Oatly获得“表现”（Oppenheimer）、“跑赢大盘”（瑞士信贷）、“同等权重”（摩根士丹利）、“跑赢大盘”（Piper Sandler）、“买入”（Jefferies、Guggenheim）、“中性”的评级”（摩根大通）和“行业表现”（加拿大皇家银行资本）。所有人都同意Oatly的增长前景，但一些公司认为这些前景已经反映在该股的价格中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Qualcomm(QCOM)</b> – Qualcomm is prepared to invest in UK chipmaker Arm if its $40 billion deal to be acquired byNvidia(NVDA) is blocked by regulators, according to the Telegraph newspaper quoting CEO Cristiano Amon.</p><p><blockquote><b>高通(QCOM)</b>-据《每日电讯报》援引英国芯片制造商Arm首席执行官克里斯蒂亚诺·阿蒙(Cristiano Amon)的400亿美元收购交易被监管机构阻止，高通准备投资英国芯片制造商Arm。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Equinix(EQIX)</b> – Equinix struck a deal for additional joint ventures with Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund to expand its data center operations there. The deal will see the fund invest an additional $3.9 billion, bringing the total investment to more than $6.9 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>Equinix(EQIX)</b>-Equinix与新加坡主权财富基金达成了额外合资企业的协议，以扩大其在新加坡的数据中心业务。这笔交易将使该基金额外投资39亿美元，使总投资超过69亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>NextGen Acquisition(NGAC) </b>– The special purpose acquisition company is in advanced talks to take Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Orbit public, according to Sky News. Sky said a deal valuing Virgin Orbit at about $3 billion could be announced within the coming weeks. NextGen shares gained 1.9% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>下一代收购(NGAC)</b>-据天空新闻报道，这家特殊目的收购公司正在就理查德·布兰森爵士的维珍轨道公司上市进行深入谈判。天空电视台表示，维珍轨道公司估值约为30亿美元的交易可能会在未来几周内宣布。NextGen股价盘前上涨1.9%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通","CMG":"墨式烧烤","RACE":"法拉利","NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药","AZN":"阿斯利康","EQIX":"易昆尼克斯","PHG":"飞利浦","OTLY":"Oatly Group AB","GSK":"葛兰素史克","RDS.A":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油A类股"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172057691","content_text":"U.S. stocks are seen opening marginally higher Monday, remaining near record levels, heading into a week that includes a keenly-awaited Federal Reserve meeting.\nAt 7 AM ET (1200 GMT), the Dow futures contract was up just 5 points, or less than 0.1%, S&P 500 futures traded 3 points, or 0.1%, higher, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 50 points, or 0.3%.\nThe three major indices closed just higher Friday, with the broad-based S&P 500 ending up 0.2%, at a new record high. The blue-chip Dow gained under 0.1% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed 0.4% higher, helped by a rotation back into growth names.\nThe Fed’s two-day policy meeting, ending Wednesday, will likely limit activity in the early part of the week. The central bank is not expected to take any immediate action, but investors will be focusing on the statement to see whether the policy makers open discussions about how and when to taper the $120 billion in monthly central bank bond purchases.\nCrude oil prices pushed higher Monday, trading near multi-year highs, helped by an improved outlook for demand as increased Covid-19 vaccinations push global travel back to near normalcy.\nU.S. daily air travelers have topped 2 million for the first time since the pandemic began with traffic returning to pre-pandemic levels in North America and much of Europe as lockdowns and other restrictions are being eased, although the U.K. could throw a spanner in the works later Monday.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\nNovavax(NVAX) – The drugmaker said its Covid-19 vaccine proved 90% effective overall in a late-stage trial, and 93% effective against the most predominant variants of the virus. It also provided 100% protection against moderate and severe disease. Novavax shares surged 10.4% in premarket trading.\nLordstown Motors(RIDE) – The electric truck maker announced the resignation of CEO Steve Burns and CFO Julio Rodriguez, days after the company warned there was doubt it could continue as a going concern. Lordstown has engaged a search firm to find replacements for Burns and Rodriguez. Shares tumbled 8% in the premarket.\nPhillips(PHG) – Phillips shares slid 4.3% in premarket action after saying it would recall up to 4 million CPAP machines due to potential toxicity risks. The foam used in the sleep apnea treatment devices could degrade and potentially become toxic. The Dutch medical equipment company is the largest producer of CPAP machines.\nChipotle Mexican Grill(CMG) – Raymond James upgraded the restaurant chain’s shares to “strong buy” from “outperform”, predicting that recent menu price increases would push second-half profit well beyond consensus forecasts. Chipotle shares gained 1.4% in the premarket.\nFerrari(RACE) – Goldman Sachs gave the automaker’s stock a double downgrade, moving its rating to “sell” from “buy”, noting increased capital spending and a limited scope for positive earnings revisions. Ferrari fell 2.7% in the premarket.\nGlaxoSmithKline(GSK) – The drugmaker is collaborating with clinical-stage biopharmaceutical companyiTeos Therapeutics(ITOS) to develop and commercialize EOS-448, a monoclonal antibody in early-stage development as a possible cancer treatment. iTeos soared 60.4% in the premarket.\nAstraZeneca(AZN) – The drugmaker’s Covid-19 vaccine has a favorable risk/reward profile for all age groups and particularly for those 60 years and older, according to the head of the European Medicines Agency’s Covid-19 task force. Marco Cavaleri said his quote in an Italian newspaper saying the vaccine should not be given to those over 60 was not interpreted correctly.\nRoyal Dutch Shell(RDS.A) – The energy giant is considering a sale of shale assets in Texas, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to Reuters. Such a could be worth more than $10 billion. Shares gained 2% in premarket trading.\nOatly(OTLY) – The oat milk maker received a mixed batch of initial ratings from a handful of investment firms. Oatly received ratings of “perform” (Oppenheimer), “outperform” (Credit Suisse), “equal-weight” (Morgan Stanley), “overweight” (Piper Sandler), “buy” (Jefferies, Guggenheim), “neutral” (JPMorgan Chase) and “sector perform” (RBC Capital). All agree on growth prospects for Oatly – but some firms feel those prospects are already priced into the stock.\nQualcomm(QCOM) – Qualcomm is prepared to invest in UK chipmaker Arm if its $40 billion deal to be acquired byNvidia(NVDA) is blocked by regulators, according to the Telegraph newspaper quoting CEO Cristiano Amon.\nEquinix(EQIX) – Equinix struck a deal for additional joint ventures with Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund to expand its data center operations there. The deal will see the fund invest an additional $3.9 billion, bringing the total investment to more than $6.9 billion.\nNextGen Acquisition(NGAC) – The special purpose acquisition company is in advanced talks to take Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Orbit public, according to Sky News. Sky said a deal valuing Virgin Orbit at about $3 billion could be announced within the coming weeks. NextGen shares gained 1.9% in the premarket.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OTLY":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"RDS.A":0.9,"AZN":0.9,"PHG":0.9,"CMG":0.9,"EQIX":0.9,"NGAC":0.9,"GSK":0.9,"RIDE":0.9,"RACE":0.9,"NVAX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182187478,"gmtCreate":1623558035094,"gmtModify":1631890553338,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good write-up of the intricacies that are present in trading","listText":"Good write-up of the intricacies that are present in trading","text":"Good write-up of the intricacies that are present in trading","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182187478","repostId":"1147474880","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147474880","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623470168,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147474880?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147474880","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless ris","content":"<p>  Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.  I’ve had it.</p><p><blockquote>了解投机和投资之间的区别对于避免鲁莽风险至关重要。我受够了。</blockquote></p><p> The Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.</p><p><blockquote>关于金融最基本的区别之一，《华尔街日报》是错误的，而且几十年来一直是错误的。我再也受不了了。</blockquote></p><p> If you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.</p><p><blockquote>如果你购买一只股票纯粹是因为它上涨了很多，而没有对其进行任何研究，那么你就不是——正如《华尔街日报》及其编辑奇怪地坚持这样称呼你的那样——“投资者”。如果你购买加密货币是因为，嘿，这听起来很有趣，你也不是投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Whenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.</p><p><blockquote>每当你购买任何金融资产是因为你有一个只是为了好玩，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传它，而其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。</blockquote></p><p> You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.</p><p><blockquote>你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你付出更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> Of course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%<i>are</i>investors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有些人购买像GameStopCorp.GME 5.88%这样的模因股票<i>是</i>投资者。他们阅读公司的财务报表，研究基础业务的健康状况，并了解还有谁在做空股票。同样，许多数字硬币的买家也投入了时间和精力来了解加密货币的工作原理以及它如何重塑金融。</blockquote></p><p> An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.</p><p><blockquote>投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。</blockquote></p><p> The word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.</p><p><blockquote>投资者这个词来自拉丁语“investire”，意思是穿着或打扮自己，包围或包围。你永远不会在不知道衣服是什么颜色或由什么材料制成的情况下穿衣服。同样，你不能投资你一无所知的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，《华尔街日报》及其编辑长期以来一直将几乎所有购买任何东西的人称为“投资者”。1962年7月12日，《华尔街日报》发表了经典著作《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》的作者本杰明·格雷厄姆写给编辑的一封信。格雷厄姆抱怨说，那年6月，《华尔街日报》发表了一篇文章，标题是“许多小投资者押注进一步下跌，卖空零星股票”。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“根据‘投资’的什么定义，人们可以给那些通过卖空零头在股市上下注的小人物起‘投资者’这个名字呢？”（做空奇数手就是借入并卖出少于100股的股票，押注股票会下跌——无论在当时还是现在，这都是一个昂贵且有风险的赌注。）</blockquote></p><p> “If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”</p><p><blockquote>“如果这些人是投资者，”格雷厄姆问道，“我们应该如何定义‘投机’和‘投机者’？难道目前未能区分投资和投机的做法不仅会对个人，而且会对整个金融界造成严重伤害吗——就像20世纪20年代末那样？”</blockquote></p><p> Graham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆并不是一个认为市场应该是富人专属游乐场的势利小人。他写了《聪明的投资者》，明确的目的是帮助不太富裕的人明智地参与股市。</blockquote></p><p> In that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆在那本书（本专栏就是以其命名的）中说：“彻头彻尾的投机既不违法、不道德，也（对大多数人来说）不会让钱包发胖。”</blockquote></p><p> However, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他警告说，这会带来三种危险：“（1）当你认为自己在投资时进行投机；（2）当你缺乏适当的知识和技能时，认真地投机而不是作为一种消遣；以及（3）冒更多钱的风险投机超出了你的承受能力。”</blockquote></p><p> Most investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者每隔一段时间就会投机一点。就像彩票或偶尔去赛马场或赌场一样，一点点是无害的乐趣。很多都不是。</blockquote></p><p> If you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为你在投机时是在投资，你会将哪怕是短暂的成功归因于技能，即使运气是最可能的解释。这会导致你冒鲁莽的风险。</blockquote></p><p> Take speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.</p><p><blockquote>把投机看得太重，它会变成一种痴迷和上瘾。你变得无法接受你的损失，也无法关注未来超过几分钟。接下来你知道的是，你在篝火上投入了更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> I think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，将交易者和投机者称为“投资者”会将许多新来者推向他们不应该承担的风险和他们无法承受的损失的滑坡。我热切地希望《华尔街日报》及其编辑最终不再使用“投资者”作为任何进行交易的人的默认术语。</blockquote></p><p> “ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”</p><p><blockquote>“‘投资者’在英语中作为一个包罗万象的术语有着悠久的历史，指的是那些投入资本并期望回报的人，无论时间长短，无论他们阅读的投资专栏有多少，”《华尔街日报》财经编辑查尔斯·福雷尔在回应我的投诉时说道。“至少可以追溯到19世纪中叶，‘投资’甚至被用来描述赌马——这种活动与基本面分析的脱节程度肯定不亚于购买狗狗币。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.</p><p><blockquote>我听到了，老板，但我还是认为你错了。《华尔街日报》不可能仅仅因为字典上说我们可以，就说一个休闲赌徒在赛马场“投资”。</blockquote></p><p> Calling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.</p><p><blockquote>将新手投机者称为“投资者”是营销人员助长过度交易的最有力方式之一。</blockquote></p><p> Ina recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的Instagram帖子中，一位名叫拉娜·罗迪斯(Lana Rhoades)的前色情明星穿着——嗯，大部分是穿着——比基尼，举着似乎是格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》。据IMDb.com报道，她主演了《Tushy》和《Make Me Meow》等视频。</blockquote></p><p> In her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.</p><p><blockquote>在她被近180万人“点赞”的帖子中，罗迪斯宣布她将推广一种名为PAWGCoin的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> The currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)</p><p><blockquote>该货币的网站称，这枚硬币是为“那些向发达的后躯致敬的人”准备的。（我得到可靠消息，PAWG代表胖屁股白人女孩。）</blockquote></p><p> PAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.</p><p><blockquote>据追踪此类数字货币的网站Poocoin.io称，自Rhoades女士6月初开始推广PAWGcoin以来，PAWGcoin已上涨约900%。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”</p><p><blockquote>罗迪斯女士在推特上写道“我每天早上也阅读《华尔街日报》”，但记者无法联系到她置评。PAWGcoin的网站鼓励访问者“立即投资”。</blockquote></p><p> In Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.</p><p><blockquote>在罗迪斯的Instagram帖子中，她举着一本打开的《聪明的投资者》，封面是颠倒的。她似乎是闭着眼睛读的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-12 11:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.  I’ve had it.</p><p><blockquote>了解投机和投资之间的区别对于避免鲁莽风险至关重要。我受够了。</blockquote></p><p> The Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.</p><p><blockquote>关于金融最基本的区别之一，《华尔街日报》是错误的，而且几十年来一直是错误的。我再也受不了了。</blockquote></p><p> If you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.</p><p><blockquote>如果你购买一只股票纯粹是因为它上涨了很多，而没有对其进行任何研究，那么你就不是——正如《华尔街日报》及其编辑奇怪地坚持这样称呼你的那样——“投资者”。如果你购买加密货币是因为，嘿，这听起来很有趣，你也不是投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Whenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.</p><p><blockquote>每当你购买任何金融资产是因为你有一个只是为了好玩，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传它，而其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。</blockquote></p><p> You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.</p><p><blockquote>你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你付出更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> Of course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%<i>are</i>investors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有些人购买像GameStopCorp.GME 5.88%这样的模因股票<i>是</i>投资者。他们阅读公司的财务报表，研究基础业务的健康状况，并了解还有谁在做空股票。同样，许多数字硬币的买家也投入了时间和精力来了解加密货币的工作原理以及它如何重塑金融。</blockquote></p><p> An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.</p><p><blockquote>投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。</blockquote></p><p> The word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.</p><p><blockquote>投资者这个词来自拉丁语“investire”，意思是穿着或打扮自己，包围或包围。你永远不会在不知道衣服是什么颜色或由什么材料制成的情况下穿衣服。同样，你不能投资你一无所知的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，《华尔街日报》及其编辑长期以来一直将几乎所有购买任何东西的人称为“投资者”。1962年7月12日，《华尔街日报》发表了经典著作《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》的作者本杰明·格雷厄姆写给编辑的一封信。格雷厄姆抱怨说，那年6月，《华尔街日报》发表了一篇文章，标题是“许多小投资者押注进一步下跌，卖空零星股票”。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“根据‘投资’的什么定义，人们可以给那些通过卖空零头在股市上下注的小人物起‘投资者’这个名字呢？”（做空奇数手就是借入并卖出少于100股的股票，押注股票会下跌——无论在当时还是现在，这都是一个昂贵且有风险的赌注。）</blockquote></p><p> “If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”</p><p><blockquote>“如果这些人是投资者，”格雷厄姆问道，“我们应该如何定义‘投机’和‘投机者’？难道目前未能区分投资和投机的做法不仅会对个人，而且会对整个金融界造成严重伤害吗——就像20世纪20年代末那样？”</blockquote></p><p> Graham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆并不是一个认为市场应该是富人专属游乐场的势利小人。他写了《聪明的投资者》，明确的目的是帮助不太富裕的人明智地参与股市。</blockquote></p><p> In that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆在那本书（本专栏就是以其命名的）中说：“彻头彻尾的投机既不违法、不道德，也（对大多数人来说）不会让钱包发胖。”</blockquote></p><p> However, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他警告说，这会带来三种危险：“（1）当你认为自己在投资时进行投机；（2）当你缺乏适当的知识和技能时，认真地投机而不是作为一种消遣；以及（3）冒更多钱的风险投机超出了你的承受能力。”</blockquote></p><p> Most investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者每隔一段时间就会投机一点。就像彩票或偶尔去赛马场或赌场一样，一点点是无害的乐趣。很多都不是。</blockquote></p><p> If you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为你在投机时是在投资，你会将哪怕是短暂的成功归因于技能，即使运气是最可能的解释。这会导致你冒鲁莽的风险。</blockquote></p><p> Take speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.</p><p><blockquote>把投机看得太重，它会变成一种痴迷和上瘾。你变得无法接受你的损失，也无法关注未来超过几分钟。接下来你知道的是，你在篝火上投入了更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> I think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，将交易者和投机者称为“投资者”会将许多新来者推向他们不应该承担的风险和他们无法承受的损失的滑坡。我热切地希望《华尔街日报》及其编辑最终不再使用“投资者”作为任何进行交易的人的默认术语。</blockquote></p><p> “ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”</p><p><blockquote>“‘投资者’在英语中作为一个包罗万象的术语有着悠久的历史，指的是那些投入资本并期望回报的人，无论时间长短，无论他们阅读的投资专栏有多少，”《华尔街日报》财经编辑查尔斯·福雷尔在回应我的投诉时说道。“至少可以追溯到19世纪中叶，‘投资’甚至被用来描述赌马——这种活动与基本面分析的脱节程度肯定不亚于购买狗狗币。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.</p><p><blockquote>我听到了，老板，但我还是认为你错了。《华尔街日报》不可能仅仅因为字典上说我们可以，就说一个休闲赌徒在赛马场“投资”。</blockquote></p><p> Calling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.</p><p><blockquote>将新手投机者称为“投资者”是营销人员助长过度交易的最有力方式之一。</blockquote></p><p> Ina recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的Instagram帖子中，一位名叫拉娜·罗迪斯(Lana Rhoades)的前色情明星穿着——嗯，大部分是穿着——比基尼，举着似乎是格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》。据IMDb.com报道，她主演了《Tushy》和《Make Me Meow》等视频。</blockquote></p><p> In her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.</p><p><blockquote>在她被近180万人“点赞”的帖子中，罗迪斯宣布她将推广一种名为PAWGCoin的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> The currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)</p><p><blockquote>该货币的网站称，这枚硬币是为“那些向发达的后躯致敬的人”准备的。（我得到可靠消息，PAWG代表胖屁股白人女孩。）</blockquote></p><p> PAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.</p><p><blockquote>据追踪此类数字货币的网站Poocoin.io称，自Rhoades女士6月初开始推广PAWGcoin以来，PAWGcoin已上涨约900%。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”</p><p><blockquote>罗迪斯女士在推特上写道“我每天早上也阅读《华尔街日报》”，但记者无法联系到她置评。PAWGcoin的网站鼓励访问者“立即投资”。</blockquote></p><p> In Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.</p><p><blockquote>在罗迪斯的Instagram帖子中，她举着一本打开的《聪明的投资者》，封面是颠倒的。她似乎是闭着眼睛读的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147474880","content_text":"Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.\n\nI’ve had it.\nThe Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.\nIf you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.\nWhenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.\nYou’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.\nOf course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%areinvestors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.\nAn investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.\nThe word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.\nNevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”\nHe wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)\n“If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”\nGraham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.\nIn that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”\nHowever, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”\nMost investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.\nIf you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.\nTake speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.\nI think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.\n“ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”\nI hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.\nCalling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.\nIna recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”\nIn her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.\nThe currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)\nPAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.\nMs. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”\nIn Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186496978,"gmtCreate":1623517222994,"gmtModify":1631890553342,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186496978","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181489403,"gmtCreate":1623406706902,"gmtModify":1631890553345,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":":O","listText":":O","text":":O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181489403","repostId":"2142576270","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189908632,"gmtCreate":1623237214626,"gmtModify":1631890553350,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189908632","repostId":"2142600282","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114195858,"gmtCreate":1623055814374,"gmtModify":1631885485304,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to observe whether it will break through the resistance","listText":"Time to observe whether it will break through the resistance","text":"Time to observe whether it will break through the resistance","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114195858","repostId":"1112319097","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116221535,"gmtCreate":1622805662927,"gmtModify":1634097851317,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116221535","repostId":"1184005681","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111228756,"gmtCreate":1622683292975,"gmtModify":1631884325871,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope the features will be great","listText":"Hope the features will be great","text":"Hope the features will be great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111228756","repostId":"1195948779","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":683,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113747801,"gmtCreate":1622642306703,"gmtModify":1634099659427,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good prospect","listText":"Good prospect","text":"Good prospect","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113747801","repostId":"1139790754","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139790754","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622642200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139790754?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 21:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: The Cash Will Come<blockquote>亚马逊：现金会来的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139790754","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlthough Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free ca","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Although Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free cash flow.</li>  <li>Lagging free cash flow growth in 2020 and 2021 is due to investment to support growth, going after massive opportunities.</li>  <li>After lagging the market, the company is trading at an attractive valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a085447e5042d959bca14408fd50b9d\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Bet_Noire/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管亚马逊受益于新冠疫情引发的停工，但自由现金流的最佳状态尚未到来。</li><li>2020年和2021年自由现金流增长滞后是由于支持增长的投资，追求大量机会。</li><li>在落后于市场之后，该公司的估值颇具吸引力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Bet_Noire/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Short-sighted investors are selling Amazon (AMZN), which has been a massive beneficiary of the COVID shutdowns, to fund dubious reopening plays like General Electric (GE) and Nucor (NUE). As a result, Amazon has lagged the market year-to-date and is now trading at an attractive valuation.</p><p><blockquote>短视的投资者正在出售亚马逊（AMZN），该公司一直是新冠疫情停工的巨大受益者，以资助通用电气（GE）和纽柯钢铁（NUE）等可疑的重新开业公司。因此，亚马逊今年迄今一直落后于市场，目前的估值颇具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Although Amazon's revenue and EPS has benefited tremendously from COVID, free cash flow has not. After the current spending cycle winds down, Amazon seems poised to experience an explosion of free cash flow by 2022 and 2023. After all, it is the cash that the company gets to keep for investors that makes the company powerful and investors rich.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚马逊的收入和每股收益从新冠疫情中受益匪浅，但自由现金流却没有。在当前的支出周期结束后，亚马逊似乎准备在2022年和2023年经历自由现金流的爆炸式增长。毕竟，正是公司为投资者保留的现金让公司变得强大，投资者变得富有。</blockquote></p><p> <b>COVID Beneficiary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>COVID受益人</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been a massive beneficiary of COVID. The company generated $386 billion of revenue in 2020, up 37.6% y/y. This Amazon's fastest growth rate since 2011, even including the inorganic contribution to growth in 2017 and 2018 when it&nbsp;acquired&nbsp;Whole Foods. Amazingly, the last time the company grew faster was in 2011 when the company generated \"only\" $48 billion in revenue. Who said elephants can't dance?</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直是新冠疫情的巨大受益者。该公司2020年收入为3860亿美元，同比增长37.6%。这是亚马逊自2011年以来最快的增速，甚至包括2017年和2018年收购全食超市时对增长的无机贡献。令人惊讶的是，该公司上一次增长更快是在2011年，当时该公司“仅”创造了480亿美元的收入。谁说大象不会跳舞？</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, Amazon's e-commerce businesses experienced accelerated revenue growth:</p><p><blockquote>2020年，亚马逊电商业务收入加速增长：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>3rd Party Seller Services increased 49.6% to $80.4 billion.</li>  <li>Online stores increased 39.7% to $197 billion.</li> </ul> In 2020, the company's other businesses continued to decelerate, though likely at a lower deceleration than without COVID:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第三方卖家服务增长49.6%，达到804亿美元。</li><li>在线商店增长39.7%，达到1970亿美元。</li></ul>2020年，该公司的其他业务继续减速，尽管减速可能低于没有新冠疫情的情况：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Subscription Services grew 31.2% y/y $25.2 billion, a 4.4% point y/y deceleration vs. a 10.1% point deceleration the prior year.</li>  <li>AWS grew 29.5% to $45.4 billion, a 7% point y/y deceleration vs. a 10.5% point deceleration the prior year.</li> </ul> Physical stores, not surprisingly, is the only business that got hurt by COVID, declining 5.6% to $16.2 billion. A 5.6% decline isn't even that bad, and this business is a drop in the bucket given Amazon's total revenue of $489 billion in 2020.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>订阅服务同比增长31.2%，达到252亿美元，同比下降4.4%，而上年下降10.1%。</li><li>AWS增长29.5%，达到454亿美元，同比下降7%，而上一年下降10.5%。</li></ul>毫不奇怪，实体店是唯一受到新冠疫情影响的业务，下降了5.6%，至162亿美元。5.6%的下降甚至没有那么糟糕，考虑到亚马逊2020年4890亿美元的总收入，这项业务只是杯水车薪。</blockquote></p><p> The COVID benefits largely extended into 2021 as consensus estimates put 2021 revenue growth at a robust 26.9% on top of tough comps.</p><p><blockquote>新冠疫情带来的好处很大程度上延续到了2021年，因为市场普遍预测2021年收入增长将达到26.9%，高于严峻的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The company saw an even bigger increase in accounting profits. Operating income expanded to 5.9% in 2020, a 70 bps y/y expansion. It is important to note that excluding one-time $11.5 billion COVID-related expenses in 2020, Amazon's operating margin would have been 8.9% rather than the reported 5.9%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的会计利润增幅更大。2020年营业收入增长至5.9%，同比增长70个基点。值得注意的是，排除2020年一次性115亿美元的新冠相关费用，亚马逊的营业利润率将为8.9%，而不是报道的5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> GAAP EPS grew an incredible 81.8% y/y to $41.83 per share.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP每股收益同比增长81.8%，达到每股41.83美元，令人难以置信。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Is My Money?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的钱呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Although revenue grow 37.6% y/y and EPS grew 81.8% y/y in 2020, free cash flow growth lagged materially, growing only 20.1% y/y. 2021 is expected to be worse, with free cash flow expected to grow only 16.9%, just half the growth rate of its expected EPS growth that year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管2020年收入同比增长37.6%，每股收益同比增长81.8%，但自由现金流增长大幅滞后，仅同比增长20.1%。预计2021年的情况会更糟，自由现金流预计仅增长16.9%，仅为当年EPS预期增速的一半。</blockquote></p><p> This because capital expenditure (\"Capex\") increased an incredible 176% y/y in 2020 to over $35 billion. This the largest y/y growth since at least 2007. In terms of absolute numbers, 2020 deployed an incremental $22 billion- an absolutely mind-boggling amount. Capex is expected to remain elevated in 2021, growing another 16% y/y to $41 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为资本支出（“资本支出”）在2020年同比增长了令人难以置信的176%，达到超过350亿美元。这是至少自2007年以来最大的同比增长。就绝对数字而言，2020年部署了220亿美元的增量——这绝对是一个令人难以置信的数字。预计2021年资本支出将保持高位，同比再增长16%，达到410亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On top of all this spending, the company, on May 26, Amazon&nbsp;announced&nbsp;the acquisition of MGM Studios for $8.45 billion. I can see conservative, old-school investors' heads about to explode- but relax.</p><p><blockquote>除了所有这些支出之外，该公司还于5月26日宣布以84.5亿美元收购米高梅影业。我可以看到保守、老派的投资者的头即将爆炸——但请放松。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Spending and Free Cash Flow Cycle</b></p><p><blockquote><b>支出和自由现金流周期</b></blockquote></p><p> In my 2017 article,<i>Amazon Bears Will Get Crushed</i>, I addressed the same investor concern that Amazon is spending too much money, although the spending is at a much, much greater scale today.</p><p><blockquote>在我2017年的文章中，<i>亚马逊空头将被压垮</i>，我解决了投资者同样的担忧，即亚马逊花了太多钱，尽管今天的支出规模要大得多。</blockquote></p><p> Back in 2017, investors were worried about Amazon's ramped up investments. In a nutshell, my argument was that investors should differentiate between investments going after large opportunities and a bloated cost structure. Generally speaking, unexpected expenses are bad, and - assuming that you trust management's ability - unexpected investments are good. If Warren Buffett said, \"I thought I was going to deploy $20 billion, but an opportunity came up where I can deploy $60 billion\", investors would be ecstatic. That opportunity, for Amazon, was the COVID-induced surge in demand.</p><p><blockquote>早在2017年，投资者就对亚马逊加大投资感到担忧。简而言之，我的观点是，投资者应该区分追求巨大机会的投资和臃肿的成本结构。一般来说，意外开支是不好的，而——假设你信任管理层的能力——意外投资是好的。如果沃伦·巴菲特说，“我以为我要部署200亿美元，但一个机会出现了，我可以部署600亿美元”，投资者会欣喜若狂。对于亚马逊来说，这个机会就是新冠疫情引发的需求激增。</blockquote></p><p> Relax, a surge in spending tends to be followed by years of moderate spending growth. After my 2017 article was published, 2018 and 2019 saw Capex growth of only 12-13% per year, while free cash flow grew 132% y/y in 2018 and 33% in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>放松一下，支出激增之后往往会出现多年的适度支出增长。我2017年的文章发表后，2018年和2019年的资本支出每年仅增长12-13%，而自由现金流2018年同比增长132%，2019年同比增长33%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We can see the same cycle in the 2010 - 2015 period. In 2010, Capex surged 163% y/y, then another 85% in 2011, and another 109% in 2012. Looking back, these were puny numbers in the low-single-digit of billions per year of Capex, which of course played a key role in supporting Amazon's future growth. However, in the subsequent three years, 2013 through 2015, Capex grew only 21%-<i>cumulatively</i>.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以在2010-2015年期间看到同样的周期。2010年，资本支出同比飙升163%，2011年又飙升85%，2012年又飙升109%。回顾过去，在每年数十亿美元的低个位数资本支出中，这些数字微不足道，这当然在支持亚马逊未来的增长方面发挥了关键作用。然而，在随后的三年（2013年至2015年）中，资本支出仅增长了21%——<i>累计</i>.</blockquote></p><p> By 2015, free cash flow exploded 276% to $7.3 billion, higher than the highest the company has ever generated until then by a factor of two to three.</p><p><blockquote>到2015年，自由现金流猛增276%，达到73亿美元，比该公司此前产生的最高水平高出两到三倍。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is expecting the same cycle to play out this time around. In 2022, free cash flow is expected to grow 58% y/y as Capex growth moderates to +3%. In 2023, free cash flow is expected to grow another 44% to a record $82.6 billion as Capex growth is expected to remain low at +2% y/y.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街预计这次也会出现同样的周期。2022年，随着资本支出增长放缓至+3%，自由现金流预计将同比增长58%。2023年，自由现金流预计将再增长44%，达到创纪录的826亿美元，因为资本支出增长预计将保持在+2%的低位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Market Opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> Some investors may take a little more convincing to get comfortable with those huge projected free cash flow numbers. $83 billion of free cash flow by 2023 is almost three times its 2020's free cash flow of $31 billion- already its highest ever. And an incremental $22 billion of Capex deployed in 2020 is a massive number.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者可能需要更多的说服力才能适应这些巨大的预计自由现金流数字。到2023年，自由现金流将达到830亿美元，几乎是2020年自由现金流310亿美元的三倍，这已经是有史以来的最高水平。2020年部署的资本支出增量为220亿美元，这是一个巨大的数字。</blockquote></p><p> The market opportunity, however, is much more massive.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场机会要大得多。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's&nbsp;share&nbsp;of US e-commerce is approximately 50%. That is high, but the US retail market is sized at over $5 trillion, and Amazon has around a 9% share of the entire retail market, and only 3.3% of consumer spending. The company is poised to gain share as it adds greater convenience, more competitive prices and greater selection.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊在美国电商的份额约为50%。这个数字很高，但美国零售市场规模超过5万亿美元，亚马逊约占整个零售市场的9%，仅占消费者支出的3.3%。该公司有望获得份额，因为它增加了更大的便利性、更具竞争力的价格和更多的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is aggressively going after the much larger global retail market, which is&nbsp;sized&nbsp;at approximately $25 trillion. Amazon's expected 2021 revenue of $490 billion is less than 2% of the global opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊正在积极进军规模大得多的全球零售市场，该市场规模约为25万亿美元。亚马逊预计2021年收入4900亿美元，不到全球机会的2%。</blockquote></p><p> A large portion of Amazon's increase in Capex went to expanding the infrastructure necessary to meet the surge in e-commerce demand. For example, in 2020, Amazon grew its fulfillment square footage by 50% y/y.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊资本支出增长的很大一部分用于扩大满足电子商务需求激增所需的基础设施。例如，2020年，亚马逊的履行面积同比增长了50%。</blockquote></p><p> Another areas of spending is to support AWS, which is Capex intensive but highly profitable. At just 12% of 2020's revenue, AWS accounted for over 50% of the company's operating income.</p><p><blockquote>另一个支出领域是支持AWS，这是资本支出密集型但利润很高。AWS仅占2020年收入的12%，却占公司营业收入的50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> The global cloud computing market is&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to grow from $371.4 billion in 2020 to $832.1 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 17.5%. Amazon's AWS generated $59 billion of revenue in 2020 and is expected to grow 31% in 2021 and 25% in 2023. This means AWS has less than 20% market share and is expected to take market share going forward.</p><p><blockquote>全球云计算市场预计将从2020年的3714亿美元增长到2025年的8321亿美元，CAGR为17.5%。亚马逊的AWS在2020年创造了590亿美元的收入，预计2021年和2023年将分别增长31%和25%。这意味着AWS的市场份额不到20%，预计未来将占据市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> If Amazon has an opportunity to deploy more capital to support this highly profitable and rapidly growing business, thatis all great news to me.</p><p><blockquote>如果亚马逊有机会部署更多资本来支持这项高利润且快速增长的业务，这对我来说都是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> Management does not tell us exactly how the Capex is allocated and what the returns could look like. I don't think it is possible as an outsider to estimate the expected return of the incremental investments in retail (e-commerce, physical stores, subscription, etc.) vs. business services (AWS, advertising, etc.), because it would require that we analyze the company as separate businesses.</p><p><blockquote>管理层没有告诉我们资本支出的确切分配方式以及回报可能是什么样子。我认为作为一个局外人不可能估计零售（电商、实体店、订阅等）增量投资的预期回报。）vs.商业服务（AWS、广告等。），因为这需要我们将公司作为独立的业务进行分析。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is one giant flywheel that cannot be separated into partsany more than you can separate a turtle from its shell. For example, without the traffic generated by its retail business, advertising would not be possible. This obvious. Less obvious is that fact that AWS began as an e-commerce tool, way before it became the public cloud company giant it is today. And although seemingly different on the surface, both Amazon.com and AWS are at its core IT infrastructure platforms at scale. In addition, Amazon's other major initiatives, such as Alexa and streaming, are joined at the hip with e-commerce by Prime membership.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是一个巨大的飞轮，它不能分成几个部分，就像你不能把一只乌龟和它的壳分开一样。例如，如果没有零售业务产生的流量，广告就不可能投放。这很明显。不太明显的是，AWS最初是一个电子商务工具，远在它成为今天的公共云公司巨头之前。尽管表面上看起来不同，但亚马逊和AWS都是其核心IT基础设施平台。此外，亚马逊的其他重大举措，如Alexa和流媒体，也通过Prime会员与电子商务紧密相连。</blockquote></p><p> But we do know one thing: the opportunity for continued growth is massive.</p><p><blockquote>但我们确实知道一件事：持续增长的机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Like most growth stocks, Amazon lagged the market so far this year, and valuation is looking attractive.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数成长型股票一样，亚马逊今年迄今为止落后于市场，估值看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, Amazon is trading at 52 times forward EPS, down from 112 times in July 2020. The stock is trading at a 140% premium to the S&amp;P 500, the lowest in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>目前，亚马逊的预期每股收益为52倍，低于2020年7月的112倍。该股的交易价格较标普500溢价140%，为5年来最低。</blockquote></p><p> On free cash flow yield, Amazon is yielding 2.6% forward free cash flow, which is towards the low end of its 5-year range. If we believe in the Capex and free cash flow cycle, the stock looks attractively valued.</p><p><blockquote>就自由现金流收益率而言，亚马逊的远期自由现金流收益率为2.6%，接近其5年期范围的低端。如果我们相信资本支出和自由现金流周期，那么该股的估值看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Although Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free cash flow. After lagging the market, the company is trading at an attractive valuation given the large growth opportunities ahead of it, and the potential explosion in free cash flow in 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚马逊受益于新冠疫情引发的停工，但自由现金流的最佳状态尚未到来。在落后于市场之后，考虑到未来巨大的增长机会以及2022年和2023年自由现金流的潜在爆炸式增长，该公司的估值具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: The Cash Will Come<blockquote>亚马逊：现金会来的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: The Cash Will Come<blockquote>亚马逊：现金会来的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Although Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free cash flow.</li>  <li>Lagging free cash flow growth in 2020 and 2021 is due to investment to support growth, going after massive opportunities.</li>  <li>After lagging the market, the company is trading at an attractive valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a085447e5042d959bca14408fd50b9d\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Bet_Noire/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管亚马逊受益于新冠疫情引发的停工，但自由现金流的最佳状态尚未到来。</li><li>2020年和2021年自由现金流增长滞后是由于支持增长的投资，追求大量机会。</li><li>在落后于市场之后，该公司的估值颇具吸引力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Bet_Noire/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Short-sighted investors are selling Amazon (AMZN), which has been a massive beneficiary of the COVID shutdowns, to fund dubious reopening plays like General Electric (GE) and Nucor (NUE). As a result, Amazon has lagged the market year-to-date and is now trading at an attractive valuation.</p><p><blockquote>短视的投资者正在出售亚马逊（AMZN），该公司一直是新冠疫情停工的巨大受益者，以资助通用电气（GE）和纽柯钢铁（NUE）等可疑的重新开业公司。因此，亚马逊今年迄今一直落后于市场，目前的估值颇具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Although Amazon's revenue and EPS has benefited tremendously from COVID, free cash flow has not. After the current spending cycle winds down, Amazon seems poised to experience an explosion of free cash flow by 2022 and 2023. After all, it is the cash that the company gets to keep for investors that makes the company powerful and investors rich.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚马逊的收入和每股收益从新冠疫情中受益匪浅，但自由现金流却没有。在当前的支出周期结束后，亚马逊似乎准备在2022年和2023年经历自由现金流的爆炸式增长。毕竟，正是公司为投资者保留的现金让公司变得强大，投资者变得富有。</blockquote></p><p> <b>COVID Beneficiary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>COVID受益人</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been a massive beneficiary of COVID. The company generated $386 billion of revenue in 2020, up 37.6% y/y. This Amazon's fastest growth rate since 2011, even including the inorganic contribution to growth in 2017 and 2018 when it&nbsp;acquired&nbsp;Whole Foods. Amazingly, the last time the company grew faster was in 2011 when the company generated \"only\" $48 billion in revenue. Who said elephants can't dance?</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直是新冠疫情的巨大受益者。该公司2020年收入为3860亿美元，同比增长37.6%。这是亚马逊自2011年以来最快的增速，甚至包括2017年和2018年收购全食超市时对增长的无机贡献。令人惊讶的是，该公司上一次增长更快是在2011年，当时该公司“仅”创造了480亿美元的收入。谁说大象不会跳舞？</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, Amazon's e-commerce businesses experienced accelerated revenue growth:</p><p><blockquote>2020年，亚马逊电商业务收入加速增长：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>3rd Party Seller Services increased 49.6% to $80.4 billion.</li>  <li>Online stores increased 39.7% to $197 billion.</li> </ul> In 2020, the company's other businesses continued to decelerate, though likely at a lower deceleration than without COVID:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第三方卖家服务增长49.6%，达到804亿美元。</li><li>在线商店增长39.7%，达到1970亿美元。</li></ul>2020年，该公司的其他业务继续减速，尽管减速可能低于没有新冠疫情的情况：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Subscription Services grew 31.2% y/y $25.2 billion, a 4.4% point y/y deceleration vs. a 10.1% point deceleration the prior year.</li>  <li>AWS grew 29.5% to $45.4 billion, a 7% point y/y deceleration vs. a 10.5% point deceleration the prior year.</li> </ul> Physical stores, not surprisingly, is the only business that got hurt by COVID, declining 5.6% to $16.2 billion. A 5.6% decline isn't even that bad, and this business is a drop in the bucket given Amazon's total revenue of $489 billion in 2020.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>订阅服务同比增长31.2%，达到252亿美元，同比下降4.4%，而上年下降10.1%。</li><li>AWS增长29.5%，达到454亿美元，同比下降7%，而上一年下降10.5%。</li></ul>毫不奇怪，实体店是唯一受到新冠疫情影响的业务，下降了5.6%，至162亿美元。5.6%的下降甚至没有那么糟糕，考虑到亚马逊2020年4890亿美元的总收入，这项业务只是杯水车薪。</blockquote></p><p> The COVID benefits largely extended into 2021 as consensus estimates put 2021 revenue growth at a robust 26.9% on top of tough comps.</p><p><blockquote>新冠疫情带来的好处很大程度上延续到了2021年，因为市场普遍预测2021年收入增长将达到26.9%，高于严峻的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The company saw an even bigger increase in accounting profits. Operating income expanded to 5.9% in 2020, a 70 bps y/y expansion. It is important to note that excluding one-time $11.5 billion COVID-related expenses in 2020, Amazon's operating margin would have been 8.9% rather than the reported 5.9%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的会计利润增幅更大。2020年营业收入增长至5.9%，同比增长70个基点。值得注意的是，排除2020年一次性115亿美元的新冠相关费用，亚马逊的营业利润率将为8.9%，而不是报道的5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> GAAP EPS grew an incredible 81.8% y/y to $41.83 per share.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP每股收益同比增长81.8%，达到每股41.83美元，令人难以置信。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Is My Money?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的钱呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Although revenue grow 37.6% y/y and EPS grew 81.8% y/y in 2020, free cash flow growth lagged materially, growing only 20.1% y/y. 2021 is expected to be worse, with free cash flow expected to grow only 16.9%, just half the growth rate of its expected EPS growth that year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管2020年收入同比增长37.6%，每股收益同比增长81.8%，但自由现金流增长大幅滞后，仅同比增长20.1%。预计2021年的情况会更糟，自由现金流预计仅增长16.9%，仅为当年EPS预期增速的一半。</blockquote></p><p> This because capital expenditure (\"Capex\") increased an incredible 176% y/y in 2020 to over $35 billion. This the largest y/y growth since at least 2007. In terms of absolute numbers, 2020 deployed an incremental $22 billion- an absolutely mind-boggling amount. Capex is expected to remain elevated in 2021, growing another 16% y/y to $41 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为资本支出（“资本支出”）在2020年同比增长了令人难以置信的176%，达到超过350亿美元。这是至少自2007年以来最大的同比增长。就绝对数字而言，2020年部署了220亿美元的增量——这绝对是一个令人难以置信的数字。预计2021年资本支出将保持高位，同比再增长16%，达到410亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On top of all this spending, the company, on May 26, Amazon&nbsp;announced&nbsp;the acquisition of MGM Studios for $8.45 billion. I can see conservative, old-school investors' heads about to explode- but relax.</p><p><blockquote>除了所有这些支出之外，该公司还于5月26日宣布以84.5亿美元收购米高梅影业。我可以看到保守、老派的投资者的头即将爆炸——但请放松。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Spending and Free Cash Flow Cycle</b></p><p><blockquote><b>支出和自由现金流周期</b></blockquote></p><p> In my 2017 article,<i>Amazon Bears Will Get Crushed</i>, I addressed the same investor concern that Amazon is spending too much money, although the spending is at a much, much greater scale today.</p><p><blockquote>在我2017年的文章中，<i>亚马逊空头将被压垮</i>，我解决了投资者同样的担忧，即亚马逊花了太多钱，尽管今天的支出规模要大得多。</blockquote></p><p> Back in 2017, investors were worried about Amazon's ramped up investments. In a nutshell, my argument was that investors should differentiate between investments going after large opportunities and a bloated cost structure. Generally speaking, unexpected expenses are bad, and - assuming that you trust management's ability - unexpected investments are good. If Warren Buffett said, \"I thought I was going to deploy $20 billion, but an opportunity came up where I can deploy $60 billion\", investors would be ecstatic. That opportunity, for Amazon, was the COVID-induced surge in demand.</p><p><blockquote>早在2017年，投资者就对亚马逊加大投资感到担忧。简而言之，我的观点是，投资者应该区分追求巨大机会的投资和臃肿的成本结构。一般来说，意外开支是不好的，而——假设你信任管理层的能力——意外投资是好的。如果沃伦·巴菲特说，“我以为我要部署200亿美元，但一个机会出现了，我可以部署600亿美元”，投资者会欣喜若狂。对于亚马逊来说，这个机会就是新冠疫情引发的需求激增。</blockquote></p><p> Relax, a surge in spending tends to be followed by years of moderate spending growth. After my 2017 article was published, 2018 and 2019 saw Capex growth of only 12-13% per year, while free cash flow grew 132% y/y in 2018 and 33% in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>放松一下，支出激增之后往往会出现多年的适度支出增长。我2017年的文章发表后，2018年和2019年的资本支出每年仅增长12-13%，而自由现金流2018年同比增长132%，2019年同比增长33%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We can see the same cycle in the 2010 - 2015 period. In 2010, Capex surged 163% y/y, then another 85% in 2011, and another 109% in 2012. Looking back, these were puny numbers in the low-single-digit of billions per year of Capex, which of course played a key role in supporting Amazon's future growth. However, in the subsequent three years, 2013 through 2015, Capex grew only 21%-<i>cumulatively</i>.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以在2010-2015年期间看到同样的周期。2010年，资本支出同比飙升163%，2011年又飙升85%，2012年又飙升109%。回顾过去，在每年数十亿美元的低个位数资本支出中，这些数字微不足道，这当然在支持亚马逊未来的增长方面发挥了关键作用。然而，在随后的三年（2013年至2015年）中，资本支出仅增长了21%——<i>累计</i>.</blockquote></p><p> By 2015, free cash flow exploded 276% to $7.3 billion, higher than the highest the company has ever generated until then by a factor of two to three.</p><p><blockquote>到2015年，自由现金流猛增276%，达到73亿美元，比该公司此前产生的最高水平高出两到三倍。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is expecting the same cycle to play out this time around. In 2022, free cash flow is expected to grow 58% y/y as Capex growth moderates to +3%. In 2023, free cash flow is expected to grow another 44% to a record $82.6 billion as Capex growth is expected to remain low at +2% y/y.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街预计这次也会出现同样的周期。2022年，随着资本支出增长放缓至+3%，自由现金流预计将同比增长58%。2023年，自由现金流预计将再增长44%，达到创纪录的826亿美元，因为资本支出增长预计将保持在+2%的低位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Market Opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> Some investors may take a little more convincing to get comfortable with those huge projected free cash flow numbers. $83 billion of free cash flow by 2023 is almost three times its 2020's free cash flow of $31 billion- already its highest ever. And an incremental $22 billion of Capex deployed in 2020 is a massive number.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者可能需要更多的说服力才能适应这些巨大的预计自由现金流数字。到2023年，自由现金流将达到830亿美元，几乎是2020年自由现金流310亿美元的三倍，这已经是有史以来的最高水平。2020年部署的资本支出增量为220亿美元，这是一个巨大的数字。</blockquote></p><p> The market opportunity, however, is much more massive.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场机会要大得多。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's&nbsp;share&nbsp;of US e-commerce is approximately 50%. That is high, but the US retail market is sized at over $5 trillion, and Amazon has around a 9% share of the entire retail market, and only 3.3% of consumer spending. The company is poised to gain share as it adds greater convenience, more competitive prices and greater selection.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊在美国电商的份额约为50%。这个数字很高，但美国零售市场规模超过5万亿美元，亚马逊约占整个零售市场的9%，仅占消费者支出的3.3%。该公司有望获得份额，因为它增加了更大的便利性、更具竞争力的价格和更多的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is aggressively going after the much larger global retail market, which is&nbsp;sized&nbsp;at approximately $25 trillion. Amazon's expected 2021 revenue of $490 billion is less than 2% of the global opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊正在积极进军规模大得多的全球零售市场，该市场规模约为25万亿美元。亚马逊预计2021年收入4900亿美元，不到全球机会的2%。</blockquote></p><p> A large portion of Amazon's increase in Capex went to expanding the infrastructure necessary to meet the surge in e-commerce demand. For example, in 2020, Amazon grew its fulfillment square footage by 50% y/y.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊资本支出增长的很大一部分用于扩大满足电子商务需求激增所需的基础设施。例如，2020年，亚马逊的履行面积同比增长了50%。</blockquote></p><p> Another areas of spending is to support AWS, which is Capex intensive but highly profitable. At just 12% of 2020's revenue, AWS accounted for over 50% of the company's operating income.</p><p><blockquote>另一个支出领域是支持AWS，这是资本支出密集型但利润很高。AWS仅占2020年收入的12%，却占公司营业收入的50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> The global cloud computing market is&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to grow from $371.4 billion in 2020 to $832.1 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 17.5%. Amazon's AWS generated $59 billion of revenue in 2020 and is expected to grow 31% in 2021 and 25% in 2023. This means AWS has less than 20% market share and is expected to take market share going forward.</p><p><blockquote>全球云计算市场预计将从2020年的3714亿美元增长到2025年的8321亿美元，CAGR为17.5%。亚马逊的AWS在2020年创造了590亿美元的收入，预计2021年和2023年将分别增长31%和25%。这意味着AWS的市场份额不到20%，预计未来将占据市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> If Amazon has an opportunity to deploy more capital to support this highly profitable and rapidly growing business, thatis all great news to me.</p><p><blockquote>如果亚马逊有机会部署更多资本来支持这项高利润且快速增长的业务，这对我来说都是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> Management does not tell us exactly how the Capex is allocated and what the returns could look like. I don't think it is possible as an outsider to estimate the expected return of the incremental investments in retail (e-commerce, physical stores, subscription, etc.) vs. business services (AWS, advertising, etc.), because it would require that we analyze the company as separate businesses.</p><p><blockquote>管理层没有告诉我们资本支出的确切分配方式以及回报可能是什么样子。我认为作为一个局外人不可能估计零售（电商、实体店、订阅等）增量投资的预期回报。）vs.商业服务（AWS、广告等。），因为这需要我们将公司作为独立的业务进行分析。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is one giant flywheel that cannot be separated into partsany more than you can separate a turtle from its shell. For example, without the traffic generated by its retail business, advertising would not be possible. This obvious. Less obvious is that fact that AWS began as an e-commerce tool, way before it became the public cloud company giant it is today. And although seemingly different on the surface, both Amazon.com and AWS are at its core IT infrastructure platforms at scale. In addition, Amazon's other major initiatives, such as Alexa and streaming, are joined at the hip with e-commerce by Prime membership.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是一个巨大的飞轮，它不能分成几个部分，就像你不能把一只乌龟和它的壳分开一样。例如，如果没有零售业务产生的流量，广告就不可能投放。这很明显。不太明显的是，AWS最初是一个电子商务工具，远在它成为今天的公共云公司巨头之前。尽管表面上看起来不同，但亚马逊和AWS都是其核心IT基础设施平台。此外，亚马逊的其他重大举措，如Alexa和流媒体，也通过Prime会员与电子商务紧密相连。</blockquote></p><p> But we do know one thing: the opportunity for continued growth is massive.</p><p><blockquote>但我们确实知道一件事：持续增长的机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Like most growth stocks, Amazon lagged the market so far this year, and valuation is looking attractive.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数成长型股票一样，亚马逊今年迄今为止落后于市场，估值看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, Amazon is trading at 52 times forward EPS, down from 112 times in July 2020. The stock is trading at a 140% premium to the S&amp;P 500, the lowest in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>目前，亚马逊的预期每股收益为52倍，低于2020年7月的112倍。该股的交易价格较标普500溢价140%，为5年来最低。</blockquote></p><p> On free cash flow yield, Amazon is yielding 2.6% forward free cash flow, which is towards the low end of its 5-year range. If we believe in the Capex and free cash flow cycle, the stock looks attractively valued.</p><p><blockquote>就自由现金流收益率而言，亚马逊的远期自由现金流收益率为2.6%，接近其5年期范围的低端。如果我们相信资本支出和自由现金流周期，那么该股的估值看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Although Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free cash flow. After lagging the market, the company is trading at an attractive valuation given the large growth opportunities ahead of it, and the potential explosion in free cash flow in 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚马逊受益于新冠疫情引发的停工，但自由现金流的最佳状态尚未到来。在落后于市场之后，考虑到未来巨大的增长机会以及2022年和2023年自由现金流的潜在爆炸式增长，该公司的估值具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432586-amazon-the-cash-will-come\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432586-amazon-the-cash-will-come","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139790754","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlthough Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free cash flow.\nLagging free cash flow growth in 2020 and 2021 is due to investment to support growth, going after massive opportunities.\nAfter lagging the market, the company is trading at an attractive valuation.\n\nPhoto by Bet_Noire/iStock via Getty Images\nShort-sighted investors are selling Amazon (AMZN), which has been a massive beneficiary of the COVID shutdowns, to fund dubious reopening plays like General Electric (GE) and Nucor (NUE). As a result, Amazon has lagged the market year-to-date and is now trading at an attractive valuation.\nAlthough Amazon's revenue and EPS has benefited tremendously from COVID, free cash flow has not. After the current spending cycle winds down, Amazon seems poised to experience an explosion of free cash flow by 2022 and 2023. After all, it is the cash that the company gets to keep for investors that makes the company powerful and investors rich.\nCOVID Beneficiary\nAmazon has been a massive beneficiary of COVID. The company generated $386 billion of revenue in 2020, up 37.6% y/y. This Amazon's fastest growth rate since 2011, even including the inorganic contribution to growth in 2017 and 2018 when it acquired Whole Foods. Amazingly, the last time the company grew faster was in 2011 when the company generated \"only\" $48 billion in revenue. Who said elephants can't dance?\nIn 2020, Amazon's e-commerce businesses experienced accelerated revenue growth:\n\n3rd Party Seller Services increased 49.6% to $80.4 billion.\nOnline stores increased 39.7% to $197 billion.\n\nIn 2020, the company's other businesses continued to decelerate, though likely at a lower deceleration than without COVID:\n\nSubscription Services grew 31.2% y/y $25.2 billion, a 4.4% point y/y deceleration vs. a 10.1% point deceleration the prior year.\nAWS grew 29.5% to $45.4 billion, a 7% point y/y deceleration vs. a 10.5% point deceleration the prior year.\n\nPhysical stores, not surprisingly, is the only business that got hurt by COVID, declining 5.6% to $16.2 billion. A 5.6% decline isn't even that bad, and this business is a drop in the bucket given Amazon's total revenue of $489 billion in 2020.\nThe COVID benefits largely extended into 2021 as consensus estimates put 2021 revenue growth at a robust 26.9% on top of tough comps.\nThe company saw an even bigger increase in accounting profits. Operating income expanded to 5.9% in 2020, a 70 bps y/y expansion. It is important to note that excluding one-time $11.5 billion COVID-related expenses in 2020, Amazon's operating margin would have been 8.9% rather than the reported 5.9%.\nGAAP EPS grew an incredible 81.8% y/y to $41.83 per share.\nWhere Is My Money?\nAlthough revenue grow 37.6% y/y and EPS grew 81.8% y/y in 2020, free cash flow growth lagged materially, growing only 20.1% y/y. 2021 is expected to be worse, with free cash flow expected to grow only 16.9%, just half the growth rate of its expected EPS growth that year.\nThis because capital expenditure (\"Capex\") increased an incredible 176% y/y in 2020 to over $35 billion. This the largest y/y growth since at least 2007. In terms of absolute numbers, 2020 deployed an incremental $22 billion- an absolutely mind-boggling amount. Capex is expected to remain elevated in 2021, growing another 16% y/y to $41 billion.\nOn top of all this spending, the company, on May 26, Amazon announced the acquisition of MGM Studios for $8.45 billion. I can see conservative, old-school investors' heads about to explode- but relax.\nThe Spending and Free Cash Flow Cycle\nIn my 2017 article,Amazon Bears Will Get Crushed, I addressed the same investor concern that Amazon is spending too much money, although the spending is at a much, much greater scale today.\nBack in 2017, investors were worried about Amazon's ramped up investments. In a nutshell, my argument was that investors should differentiate between investments going after large opportunities and a bloated cost structure. Generally speaking, unexpected expenses are bad, and - assuming that you trust management's ability - unexpected investments are good. If Warren Buffett said, \"I thought I was going to deploy $20 billion, but an opportunity came up where I can deploy $60 billion\", investors would be ecstatic. That opportunity, for Amazon, was the COVID-induced surge in demand.\nRelax, a surge in spending tends to be followed by years of moderate spending growth. After my 2017 article was published, 2018 and 2019 saw Capex growth of only 12-13% per year, while free cash flow grew 132% y/y in 2018 and 33% in 2019.\nWe can see the same cycle in the 2010 - 2015 period. In 2010, Capex surged 163% y/y, then another 85% in 2011, and another 109% in 2012. Looking back, these were puny numbers in the low-single-digit of billions per year of Capex, which of course played a key role in supporting Amazon's future growth. However, in the subsequent three years, 2013 through 2015, Capex grew only 21%-cumulatively.\nBy 2015, free cash flow exploded 276% to $7.3 billion, higher than the highest the company has ever generated until then by a factor of two to three.\nWall Street is expecting the same cycle to play out this time around. In 2022, free cash flow is expected to grow 58% y/y as Capex growth moderates to +3%. In 2023, free cash flow is expected to grow another 44% to a record $82.6 billion as Capex growth is expected to remain low at +2% y/y.\nThe Market Opportunity\nSome investors may take a little more convincing to get comfortable with those huge projected free cash flow numbers. $83 billion of free cash flow by 2023 is almost three times its 2020's free cash flow of $31 billion- already its highest ever. And an incremental $22 billion of Capex deployed in 2020 is a massive number.\nThe market opportunity, however, is much more massive.\nAmazon's share of US e-commerce is approximately 50%. That is high, but the US retail market is sized at over $5 trillion, and Amazon has around a 9% share of the entire retail market, and only 3.3% of consumer spending. The company is poised to gain share as it adds greater convenience, more competitive prices and greater selection.\nAmazon is aggressively going after the much larger global retail market, which is sized at approximately $25 trillion. Amazon's expected 2021 revenue of $490 billion is less than 2% of the global opportunity.\nA large portion of Amazon's increase in Capex went to expanding the infrastructure necessary to meet the surge in e-commerce demand. For example, in 2020, Amazon grew its fulfillment square footage by 50% y/y.\nAnother areas of spending is to support AWS, which is Capex intensive but highly profitable. At just 12% of 2020's revenue, AWS accounted for over 50% of the company's operating income.\nThe global cloud computing market is expected to grow from $371.4 billion in 2020 to $832.1 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 17.5%. Amazon's AWS generated $59 billion of revenue in 2020 and is expected to grow 31% in 2021 and 25% in 2023. This means AWS has less than 20% market share and is expected to take market share going forward.\nIf Amazon has an opportunity to deploy more capital to support this highly profitable and rapidly growing business, thatis all great news to me.\nManagement does not tell us exactly how the Capex is allocated and what the returns could look like. I don't think it is possible as an outsider to estimate the expected return of the incremental investments in retail (e-commerce, physical stores, subscription, etc.) vs. business services (AWS, advertising, etc.), because it would require that we analyze the company as separate businesses.\nAmazon is one giant flywheel that cannot be separated into partsany more than you can separate a turtle from its shell. For example, without the traffic generated by its retail business, advertising would not be possible. This obvious. Less obvious is that fact that AWS began as an e-commerce tool, way before it became the public cloud company giant it is today. And although seemingly different on the surface, both Amazon.com and AWS are at its core IT infrastructure platforms at scale. In addition, Amazon's other major initiatives, such as Alexa and streaming, are joined at the hip with e-commerce by Prime membership.\nBut we do know one thing: the opportunity for continued growth is massive.\nValuation\nLike most growth stocks, Amazon lagged the market so far this year, and valuation is looking attractive.\nCurrently, Amazon is trading at 52 times forward EPS, down from 112 times in July 2020. The stock is trading at a 140% premium to the S&P 500, the lowest in 5 years.\nOn free cash flow yield, Amazon is yielding 2.6% forward free cash flow, which is towards the low end of its 5-year range. If we believe in the Capex and free cash flow cycle, the stock looks attractively valued.\nTakeaway\nAlthough Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free cash flow. After lagging the market, the company is trading at an attractive valuation given the large growth opportunities ahead of it, and the potential explosion in free cash flow in 2022 and 2023.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110206319,"gmtCreate":1622454971031,"gmtModify":1634101363673,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"They need to scale their product ranges a little","listText":"They need to scale their product ranges a little","text":"They need to scale their product ranges a little","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110206319","repostId":"1135341835","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135341835","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622453167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135341835?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-31 17:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock Could Drop 30% If iPhones Sales Slow, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称，如果iPhone销售放缓，苹果股价可能下跌30%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135341835","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple updates the iPhone lineup every fall. Sometimes, as was the case with the 2020 launch of the i","content":"<p>Apple updates the iPhone lineup every fall. Sometimes, as was the case with the 2020 launch of the iPhone 12, the anticipation is high, and demand soars. In the March quarter, the first results which included three full months of availability of the new 5G-capable phones, Apple iPhone sales soared 66%. And strong demand should continue at least for a few more quarters.</p><p><blockquote>苹果每年秋天都会更新iPhone阵容。有时，就像2020年iPhone 12发布的情况一样，人们的预期很高，需求飙升。在3月份的第一个季度，包括新的5G手机上市整整三个月的第一个结果，苹果iPhone的销量飙升了66%。强劲的需求应该至少还会持续几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> But looming ahead is the fall launch of the follow-up to the iPhone 12—the iPhone 12s (or maybe the iPhone 13.) Unlike the situation a year ago with the iPhone 12, there is not much buzz about the next round of iPhones, which seem likely to see only incremental improvements. That could set the stage for softening demand.</p><p><blockquote>但即将在秋季发布的是iPhone 12的后续产品——iPhone 12s（或者iPhone 13。）与一年前iPhone 12的情况不同，下一轮iPhone并没有太多的传言，似乎只会看到渐进式的改进。这可能为需求疲软奠定基础。</blockquote></p><p> That’s basically the thesis laid out Friday by New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu, who cut his rating on Apple (ticker: AAPL) stock to Sell from Neutral. Anticipating that earnings estimates will fall from here, he sees potential for a 20% to 30% drop in the stock, and trims his target price to $90 from $135.</p><p><blockquote>这基本上是New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu周五提出的论点，他将苹果（股票代码：AAPL）股票的评级从中性下调至卖出。预计盈利预期将从这里下降，他认为该股有可能下跌20%至30%，并将目标价从135美元下调至90美元。</blockquote></p><p> Ferragu’s view is that the&nbsp;iPhone 12&nbsp;really did spur a “supercycle,” with the strongest sales growth for Apple phones since the&nbsp;iPhone 6 launch in 2014.But he thinks the current sales spurt is “rejuvenating” the installed base, and potentially hampering demand for the next phones. He sees risks from the arrival of new phones with more limited improvements—and he also expects consumers will more generally spend less on electronics as the economy reopens. In short, Ferragu thinks the reception force the fall launch could be “lukewarm-to-cold.”</p><p><blockquote>Ferragu的观点是，iPhone 12确实刺激了一个“超级周期”，这是自2014年iPhone 6推出以来苹果手机最强劲的销售增长。但他认为，目前的销售激增正在“振兴”安装基础，并可能阻碍对下一代手机的需求。他看到了改进更有限的新手机的到来带来的风险，他还预计随着经济重新开放，消费者在电子产品上的支出将更普遍地减少。简而言之，费拉古认为秋季发布会的接待力量可能会“不冷不热”。</blockquote></p><p> Ferragu notes that the Street consensus calls for iPhone unit sales of 234 million in the September 2022 fiscal year, which would be up 2% from the consensus view for fiscal 2021. But he says that would imply that this fall’s phones will be the most appealing in the company’s history—and he finds that unlikely. The analyst projects shipments will be at least 15% below the current consensus—in the 180 million to 200 million range. And he thinks the company will miss Street estimates for both the September and December quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Ferragu指出，华尔街对2022年9月财年iPhone销量评级的共识为2.34亿部，比2021财年的共识增长2%。但他表示，这意味着今年秋天的手机将是该公司历史上最具吸引力的手机——他认为这不太可能。分析师预计出货量将比当前共识至少低15%——在1.8亿至2亿之间。他认为该公司9月和12月季度的业绩都将低于华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the bearish call, Apple stock on last&nbsp;Friday have only&nbsp;inched down 0.5% to $124.61.</p><p><blockquote>尽管看涨期权看跌，苹果股价上周五仅小幅下跌0.5%至124.61美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Could Drop 30% If iPhones Sales Slow, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称，如果iPhone销售放缓，苹果股价可能下跌30%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Could Drop 30% If iPhones Sales Slow, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称，如果iPhone销售放缓，苹果股价可能下跌30%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-31 17:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple updates the iPhone lineup every fall. Sometimes, as was the case with the 2020 launch of the iPhone 12, the anticipation is high, and demand soars. In the March quarter, the first results which included three full months of availability of the new 5G-capable phones, Apple iPhone sales soared 66%. And strong demand should continue at least for a few more quarters.</p><p><blockquote>苹果每年秋天都会更新iPhone阵容。有时，就像2020年iPhone 12发布的情况一样，人们的预期很高，需求飙升。在3月份的第一个季度，包括新的5G手机上市整整三个月的第一个结果，苹果iPhone的销量飙升了66%。强劲的需求应该至少还会持续几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> But looming ahead is the fall launch of the follow-up to the iPhone 12—the iPhone 12s (or maybe the iPhone 13.) Unlike the situation a year ago with the iPhone 12, there is not much buzz about the next round of iPhones, which seem likely to see only incremental improvements. That could set the stage for softening demand.</p><p><blockquote>但即将在秋季发布的是iPhone 12的后续产品——iPhone 12s（或者iPhone 13。）与一年前iPhone 12的情况不同，下一轮iPhone并没有太多的传言，似乎只会看到渐进式的改进。这可能为需求疲软奠定基础。</blockquote></p><p> That’s basically the thesis laid out Friday by New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu, who cut his rating on Apple (ticker: AAPL) stock to Sell from Neutral. Anticipating that earnings estimates will fall from here, he sees potential for a 20% to 30% drop in the stock, and trims his target price to $90 from $135.</p><p><blockquote>这基本上是New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu周五提出的论点，他将苹果（股票代码：AAPL）股票的评级从中性下调至卖出。预计盈利预期将从这里下降，他认为该股有可能下跌20%至30%，并将目标价从135美元下调至90美元。</blockquote></p><p> Ferragu’s view is that the&nbsp;iPhone 12&nbsp;really did spur a “supercycle,” with the strongest sales growth for Apple phones since the&nbsp;iPhone 6 launch in 2014.But he thinks the current sales spurt is “rejuvenating” the installed base, and potentially hampering demand for the next phones. He sees risks from the arrival of new phones with more limited improvements—and he also expects consumers will more generally spend less on electronics as the economy reopens. In short, Ferragu thinks the reception force the fall launch could be “lukewarm-to-cold.”</p><p><blockquote>Ferragu的观点是，iPhone 12确实刺激了一个“超级周期”，这是自2014年iPhone 6推出以来苹果手机最强劲的销售增长。但他认为，目前的销售激增正在“振兴”安装基础，并可能阻碍对下一代手机的需求。他看到了改进更有限的新手机的到来带来的风险，他还预计随着经济重新开放，消费者在电子产品上的支出将更普遍地减少。简而言之，费拉古认为秋季发布会的接待力量可能会“不冷不热”。</blockquote></p><p> Ferragu notes that the Street consensus calls for iPhone unit sales of 234 million in the September 2022 fiscal year, which would be up 2% from the consensus view for fiscal 2021. But he says that would imply that this fall’s phones will be the most appealing in the company’s history—and he finds that unlikely. The analyst projects shipments will be at least 15% below the current consensus—in the 180 million to 200 million range. And he thinks the company will miss Street estimates for both the September and December quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Ferragu指出，华尔街对2022年9月财年iPhone销量评级的共识为2.34亿部，比2021财年的共识增长2%。但他表示，这意味着今年秋天的手机将是该公司历史上最具吸引力的手机——他认为这不太可能。分析师预计出货量将比当前共识至少低15%——在1.8亿至2亿之间。他认为该公司9月和12月季度的业绩都将低于华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the bearish call, Apple stock on last&nbsp;Friday have only&nbsp;inched down 0.5% to $124.61.</p><p><blockquote>尽管看涨期权看跌，苹果股价上周五仅小幅下跌0.5%至124.61美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-could-drop-30-if-iphones-sales-slow-analyst-says-51622217140?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-could-drop-30-if-iphones-sales-slow-analyst-says-51622217140?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135341835","content_text":"Apple updates the iPhone lineup every fall. Sometimes, as was the case with the 2020 launch of the iPhone 12, the anticipation is high, and demand soars. In the March quarter, the first results which included three full months of availability of the new 5G-capable phones, Apple iPhone sales soared 66%. And strong demand should continue at least for a few more quarters.\nBut looming ahead is the fall launch of the follow-up to the iPhone 12—the iPhone 12s (or maybe the iPhone 13.) Unlike the situation a year ago with the iPhone 12, there is not much buzz about the next round of iPhones, which seem likely to see only incremental improvements. That could set the stage for softening demand.\nThat’s basically the thesis laid out Friday by New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu, who cut his rating on Apple (ticker: AAPL) stock to Sell from Neutral. Anticipating that earnings estimates will fall from here, he sees potential for a 20% to 30% drop in the stock, and trims his target price to $90 from $135.\nFerragu’s view is that the iPhone 12 really did spur a “supercycle,” with the strongest sales growth for Apple phones since the iPhone 6 launch in 2014.But he thinks the current sales spurt is “rejuvenating” the installed base, and potentially hampering demand for the next phones. He sees risks from the arrival of new phones with more limited improvements—and he also expects consumers will more generally spend less on electronics as the economy reopens. In short, Ferragu thinks the reception force the fall launch could be “lukewarm-to-cold.”\nFerragu notes that the Street consensus calls for iPhone unit sales of 234 million in the September 2022 fiscal year, which would be up 2% from the consensus view for fiscal 2021. But he says that would imply that this fall’s phones will be the most appealing in the company’s history—and he finds that unlikely. The analyst projects shipments will be at least 15% below the current consensus—in the 180 million to 200 million range. And he thinks the company will miss Street estimates for both the September and December quarters.\nDespite the bearish call, Apple stock on last Friday have only inched down 0.5% to $124.61.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134703261,"gmtCreate":1622256965853,"gmtModify":1634102718002,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can get a bit during this dip","listText":"Can get a bit during this dip","text":"Can get a bit during this dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134703261","repostId":"2138765488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134395626,"gmtCreate":1622206287665,"gmtModify":1634182872011,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134395626","repostId":"2138101876","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132183252,"gmtCreate":1622075800376,"gmtModify":1634184118439,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Starting to see some progress","listText":"Starting to see some progress","text":"Starting to see some progress","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/132183252","repostId":"2138149853","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136912318,"gmtCreate":1621989836834,"gmtModify":1634184960391,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let's hold for now","listText":"Let's hold for now","text":"Let's hold for now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136912318","repostId":"2138196079","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":103112081,"gmtCreate":1619755273643,"gmtModify":1634210145987,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good recovery","listText":"Good recovery","text":"Good recovery","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103112081","repostId":"1153490597","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164083578,"gmtCreate":1624161549394,"gmtModify":1631890553329,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Healthy corrections are good","listText":"Healthy corrections are good","text":"Healthy corrections are good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164083578","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182187478,"gmtCreate":1623558035094,"gmtModify":1631890553338,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good write-up of the intricacies that are present in trading","listText":"Good write-up of the intricacies that are present in trading","text":"Good write-up of the intricacies that are present in trading","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182187478","repostId":"1147474880","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147474880","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623470168,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147474880?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147474880","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless ris","content":"<p>  Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.  I’ve had it.</p><p><blockquote>了解投机和投资之间的区别对于避免鲁莽风险至关重要。我受够了。</blockquote></p><p> The Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.</p><p><blockquote>关于金融最基本的区别之一，《华尔街日报》是错误的，而且几十年来一直是错误的。我再也受不了了。</blockquote></p><p> If you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.</p><p><blockquote>如果你购买一只股票纯粹是因为它上涨了很多，而没有对其进行任何研究，那么你就不是——正如《华尔街日报》及其编辑奇怪地坚持这样称呼你的那样——“投资者”。如果你购买加密货币是因为，嘿，这听起来很有趣，你也不是投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Whenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.</p><p><blockquote>每当你购买任何金融资产是因为你有一个只是为了好玩，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传它，而其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。</blockquote></p><p> You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.</p><p><blockquote>你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你付出更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> Of course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%<i>are</i>investors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有些人购买像GameStopCorp.GME 5.88%这样的模因股票<i>是</i>投资者。他们阅读公司的财务报表，研究基础业务的健康状况，并了解还有谁在做空股票。同样，许多数字硬币的买家也投入了时间和精力来了解加密货币的工作原理以及它如何重塑金融。</blockquote></p><p> An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.</p><p><blockquote>投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。</blockquote></p><p> The word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.</p><p><blockquote>投资者这个词来自拉丁语“investire”，意思是穿着或打扮自己，包围或包围。你永远不会在不知道衣服是什么颜色或由什么材料制成的情况下穿衣服。同样，你不能投资你一无所知的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，《华尔街日报》及其编辑长期以来一直将几乎所有购买任何东西的人称为“投资者”。1962年7月12日，《华尔街日报》发表了经典著作《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》的作者本杰明·格雷厄姆写给编辑的一封信。格雷厄姆抱怨说，那年6月，《华尔街日报》发表了一篇文章，标题是“许多小投资者押注进一步下跌，卖空零星股票”。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“根据‘投资’的什么定义，人们可以给那些通过卖空零头在股市上下注的小人物起‘投资者’这个名字呢？”（做空奇数手就是借入并卖出少于100股的股票，押注股票会下跌——无论在当时还是现在，这都是一个昂贵且有风险的赌注。）</blockquote></p><p> “If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”</p><p><blockquote>“如果这些人是投资者，”格雷厄姆问道，“我们应该如何定义‘投机’和‘投机者’？难道目前未能区分投资和投机的做法不仅会对个人，而且会对整个金融界造成严重伤害吗——就像20世纪20年代末那样？”</blockquote></p><p> Graham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆并不是一个认为市场应该是富人专属游乐场的势利小人。他写了《聪明的投资者》，明确的目的是帮助不太富裕的人明智地参与股市。</blockquote></p><p> In that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆在那本书（本专栏就是以其命名的）中说：“彻头彻尾的投机既不违法、不道德，也（对大多数人来说）不会让钱包发胖。”</blockquote></p><p> However, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他警告说，这会带来三种危险：“（1）当你认为自己在投资时进行投机；（2）当你缺乏适当的知识和技能时，认真地投机而不是作为一种消遣；以及（3）冒更多钱的风险投机超出了你的承受能力。”</blockquote></p><p> Most investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者每隔一段时间就会投机一点。就像彩票或偶尔去赛马场或赌场一样，一点点是无害的乐趣。很多都不是。</blockquote></p><p> If you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为你在投机时是在投资，你会将哪怕是短暂的成功归因于技能，即使运气是最可能的解释。这会导致你冒鲁莽的风险。</blockquote></p><p> Take speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.</p><p><blockquote>把投机看得太重，它会变成一种痴迷和上瘾。你变得无法接受你的损失，也无法关注未来超过几分钟。接下来你知道的是，你在篝火上投入了更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> I think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，将交易者和投机者称为“投资者”会将许多新来者推向他们不应该承担的风险和他们无法承受的损失的滑坡。我热切地希望《华尔街日报》及其编辑最终不再使用“投资者”作为任何进行交易的人的默认术语。</blockquote></p><p> “ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”</p><p><blockquote>“‘投资者’在英语中作为一个包罗万象的术语有着悠久的历史，指的是那些投入资本并期望回报的人，无论时间长短，无论他们阅读的投资专栏有多少，”《华尔街日报》财经编辑查尔斯·福雷尔在回应我的投诉时说道。“至少可以追溯到19世纪中叶，‘投资’甚至被用来描述赌马——这种活动与基本面分析的脱节程度肯定不亚于购买狗狗币。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.</p><p><blockquote>我听到了，老板，但我还是认为你错了。《华尔街日报》不可能仅仅因为字典上说我们可以，就说一个休闲赌徒在赛马场“投资”。</blockquote></p><p> Calling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.</p><p><blockquote>将新手投机者称为“投资者”是营销人员助长过度交易的最有力方式之一。</blockquote></p><p> Ina recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的Instagram帖子中，一位名叫拉娜·罗迪斯(Lana Rhoades)的前色情明星穿着——嗯，大部分是穿着——比基尼，举着似乎是格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》。据IMDb.com报道，她主演了《Tushy》和《Make Me Meow》等视频。</blockquote></p><p> In her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.</p><p><blockquote>在她被近180万人“点赞”的帖子中，罗迪斯宣布她将推广一种名为PAWGCoin的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> The currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)</p><p><blockquote>该货币的网站称，这枚硬币是为“那些向发达的后躯致敬的人”准备的。（我得到可靠消息，PAWG代表胖屁股白人女孩。）</blockquote></p><p> PAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.</p><p><blockquote>据追踪此类数字货币的网站Poocoin.io称，自Rhoades女士6月初开始推广PAWGcoin以来，PAWGcoin已上涨约900%。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”</p><p><blockquote>罗迪斯女士在推特上写道“我每天早上也阅读《华尔街日报》”，但记者无法联系到她置评。PAWGcoin的网站鼓励访问者“立即投资”。</blockquote></p><p> In Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.</p><p><blockquote>在罗迪斯的Instagram帖子中，她举着一本打开的《聪明的投资者》，封面是颠倒的。她似乎是闭着眼睛读的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-12 11:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.  I’ve had it.</p><p><blockquote>了解投机和投资之间的区别对于避免鲁莽风险至关重要。我受够了。</blockquote></p><p> The Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.</p><p><blockquote>关于金融最基本的区别之一，《华尔街日报》是错误的，而且几十年来一直是错误的。我再也受不了了。</blockquote></p><p> If you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.</p><p><blockquote>如果你购买一只股票纯粹是因为它上涨了很多，而没有对其进行任何研究，那么你就不是——正如《华尔街日报》及其编辑奇怪地坚持这样称呼你的那样——“投资者”。如果你购买加密货币是因为，嘿，这听起来很有趣，你也不是投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Whenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.</p><p><blockquote>每当你购买任何金融资产是因为你有一个只是为了好玩，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传它，而其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。</blockquote></p><p> You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.</p><p><blockquote>你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你付出更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> Of course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%<i>are</i>investors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有些人购买像GameStopCorp.GME 5.88%这样的模因股票<i>是</i>投资者。他们阅读公司的财务报表，研究基础业务的健康状况，并了解还有谁在做空股票。同样，许多数字硬币的买家也投入了时间和精力来了解加密货币的工作原理以及它如何重塑金融。</blockquote></p><p> An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.</p><p><blockquote>投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。</blockquote></p><p> The word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.</p><p><blockquote>投资者这个词来自拉丁语“investire”，意思是穿着或打扮自己，包围或包围。你永远不会在不知道衣服是什么颜色或由什么材料制成的情况下穿衣服。同样，你不能投资你一无所知的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，《华尔街日报》及其编辑长期以来一直将几乎所有购买任何东西的人称为“投资者”。1962年7月12日，《华尔街日报》发表了经典著作《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》的作者本杰明·格雷厄姆写给编辑的一封信。格雷厄姆抱怨说，那年6月，《华尔街日报》发表了一篇文章，标题是“许多小投资者押注进一步下跌，卖空零星股票”。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“根据‘投资’的什么定义，人们可以给那些通过卖空零头在股市上下注的小人物起‘投资者’这个名字呢？”（做空奇数手就是借入并卖出少于100股的股票，押注股票会下跌——无论在当时还是现在，这都是一个昂贵且有风险的赌注。）</blockquote></p><p> “If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”</p><p><blockquote>“如果这些人是投资者，”格雷厄姆问道，“我们应该如何定义‘投机’和‘投机者’？难道目前未能区分投资和投机的做法不仅会对个人，而且会对整个金融界造成严重伤害吗——就像20世纪20年代末那样？”</blockquote></p><p> Graham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆并不是一个认为市场应该是富人专属游乐场的势利小人。他写了《聪明的投资者》，明确的目的是帮助不太富裕的人明智地参与股市。</blockquote></p><p> In that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆在那本书（本专栏就是以其命名的）中说：“彻头彻尾的投机既不违法、不道德，也（对大多数人来说）不会让钱包发胖。”</blockquote></p><p> However, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他警告说，这会带来三种危险：“（1）当你认为自己在投资时进行投机；（2）当你缺乏适当的知识和技能时，认真地投机而不是作为一种消遣；以及（3）冒更多钱的风险投机超出了你的承受能力。”</blockquote></p><p> Most investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者每隔一段时间就会投机一点。就像彩票或偶尔去赛马场或赌场一样，一点点是无害的乐趣。很多都不是。</blockquote></p><p> If you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为你在投机时是在投资，你会将哪怕是短暂的成功归因于技能，即使运气是最可能的解释。这会导致你冒鲁莽的风险。</blockquote></p><p> Take speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.</p><p><blockquote>把投机看得太重，它会变成一种痴迷和上瘾。你变得无法接受你的损失，也无法关注未来超过几分钟。接下来你知道的是，你在篝火上投入了更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> I think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，将交易者和投机者称为“投资者”会将许多新来者推向他们不应该承担的风险和他们无法承受的损失的滑坡。我热切地希望《华尔街日报》及其编辑最终不再使用“投资者”作为任何进行交易的人的默认术语。</blockquote></p><p> “ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”</p><p><blockquote>“‘投资者’在英语中作为一个包罗万象的术语有着悠久的历史，指的是那些投入资本并期望回报的人，无论时间长短，无论他们阅读的投资专栏有多少，”《华尔街日报》财经编辑查尔斯·福雷尔在回应我的投诉时说道。“至少可以追溯到19世纪中叶，‘投资’甚至被用来描述赌马——这种活动与基本面分析的脱节程度肯定不亚于购买狗狗币。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.</p><p><blockquote>我听到了，老板，但我还是认为你错了。《华尔街日报》不可能仅仅因为字典上说我们可以，就说一个休闲赌徒在赛马场“投资”。</blockquote></p><p> Calling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.</p><p><blockquote>将新手投机者称为“投资者”是营销人员助长过度交易的最有力方式之一。</blockquote></p><p> Ina recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的Instagram帖子中，一位名叫拉娜·罗迪斯(Lana Rhoades)的前色情明星穿着——嗯，大部分是穿着——比基尼，举着似乎是格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》。据IMDb.com报道，她主演了《Tushy》和《Make Me Meow》等视频。</blockquote></p><p> In her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.</p><p><blockquote>在她被近180万人“点赞”的帖子中，罗迪斯宣布她将推广一种名为PAWGCoin的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> The currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)</p><p><blockquote>该货币的网站称，这枚硬币是为“那些向发达的后躯致敬的人”准备的。（我得到可靠消息，PAWG代表胖屁股白人女孩。）</blockquote></p><p> PAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.</p><p><blockquote>据追踪此类数字货币的网站Poocoin.io称，自Rhoades女士6月初开始推广PAWGcoin以来，PAWGcoin已上涨约900%。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”</p><p><blockquote>罗迪斯女士在推特上写道“我每天早上也阅读《华尔街日报》”，但记者无法联系到她置评。PAWGcoin的网站鼓励访问者“立即投资”。</blockquote></p><p> In Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.</p><p><blockquote>在罗迪斯的Instagram帖子中，她举着一本打开的《聪明的投资者》，封面是颠倒的。她似乎是闭着眼睛读的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147474880","content_text":"Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.\n\nI’ve had it.\nThe Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.\nIf you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.\nWhenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.\nYou’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.\nOf course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%areinvestors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.\nAn investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.\nThe word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.\nNevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”\nHe wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)\n“If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”\nGraham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.\nIn that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”\nHowever, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”\nMost investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.\nIf you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.\nTake speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.\nI think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.\n“ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”\nI hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.\nCalling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.\nIna recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”\nIn her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.\nThe currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)\nPAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.\nMs. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”\nIn Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100141536,"gmtCreate":1619593934125,"gmtModify":1634211480832,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100141536","repostId":"1179396069","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179396069","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619573853,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179396069?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Could Blow the Top Off Earnings—Again. What That Would Mean for the Stock.<blockquote>苹果可能会再次打破盈利上限。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179396069","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple has its work cut out for it trying to surpass 2020’s blowout results. The thing is, the tech g","content":"<p>Apple has its work cut out for it trying to surpass 2020’s blowout results. The thing is, the tech giant just might be able to pull it off.</p><p><blockquote>苹果要想超越2020年的井喷业绩，还有很多工作要做。问题是，这家科技巨头也许能够成功。</blockquote></p><p> The buzz around Apple last year was off the charts, even for what is the buzziest of technology companies. Anticipation of the fall launch of the company’s first 5G phones, surging demand for both Macs and iPads as the pandemic rolled on, and strength in both wearables and services fed off each other. The pieces all came together in the December quarter, when Apple (ticker: AAPL) posted&nbsp;its biggest quarter ever. Sales soared 21% to $111.4 billion, more than $8 billion over the Street consensus. Every product category—iPhone, iPad, Macs, wearables, and services—notched double-digit growth. Apple stock finished the year up 81%, adding nearly $1 trillion to its market cap.</p><p><blockquote>去年围绕苹果的热度超出了图表，即使是对于最热门的科技公司来说也是如此。对该公司首款5G手机将于秋季推出的预期，随着疫情的发展，对Mac和iPad的需求激增，以及可穿戴设备和服务的实力相互促进。所有这些因素都在12月季度集中在一起，当时苹果（股票代码：AAPL）公布了有史以来最大的季度业绩。销售额飙升21%，达到1114亿美元，比华尔街普遍预期高出80亿美元。每个产品类别——iPhone、iPad、Mac、可穿戴设备和服务——都实现了两位数的增长。苹果股价全年上涨81%，市值增加近1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> That’s a tough act to follow, particularly with the March quarter, which always slows from the holiday-boosted December quarter. But Apple could pull off the quintuple double again when its results come out after the bell Wednesday. The Street certainly thinks so, even if the market, which has pushed Apple shares up less than 2% in 2021, has been more cautious. Consensus estimates call for double-digit increases from last year across the board: iPhones sales up 43%, to $41.4 billion; iPad sales up 29%, to $5.6 billion; Mac sales of $6.8 billion, up 27%; wearables sales (mostly Apple Watch and AirPods) of $7.4 billion, up 18%; and a 16% bump in services, to $15.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很难遵循的行为，尤其是在3月份季度，该季度总是比假期提振的12月份季度放缓。但当周三盘后公布结果时，苹果可能会再次实现五倍的增长。华尔街当然是这么认为的，尽管2021年推动苹果股价上涨不到2%的市场更加谨慎。市场普遍预计看涨期权将比去年全面实现两位数增长：iPhone销售额增长43%，达到414亿美元；iPad销售额增长29%，达到56亿美元；Mac销售额68亿美元，增长27%；可穿戴设备销售额（主要是苹果手表和AirPods）为74亿美元，增长18%；服务业增长16%，达到155亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the Street consensus expects sales of $77 billion, up 32% from a year ago, with profits of 98 cents a share. That would be the fastest top-line growth rate for any Apple quarter since March 2012, when revenues were about half what they are now. And most bullish Apple analysts seem to think their own estimates are too low—a print at $77 billion would likely trigger a selloff in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，华尔街普遍预计销售额为770亿美元，比去年同期增长32%，每股利润为98美分。这将是苹果自2012年3月以来最快的营收增长率，当时的收入约为现在的一半。大多数看涨的苹果分析师似乎认为他们自己的估计太低了——770亿美元的股价可能会引发该股的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is also&nbsp;expected to provide an update on its capital-allocation strategy. A year ago,the company announced a 6% dividend increase, and boosted its stock repurchase plan by $50 billion. Apple has said repeatedly that it is pushing to get to a cash neutral position, but its remarkably big cash flow has slowed progress toward that goal.</p><p><blockquote>预计苹果还将提供其资本配置策略的最新信息。一年前，该公司宣布将股息增加6%，并将股票回购计划增加500亿美元。苹果一再表示，它正在努力实现现金中性头寸，但其庞大的现金流减缓了实现这一目标的进展。</blockquote></p><p> As always, the quarter is about more than just earnings.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，本季度不仅仅是盈利。</blockquote></p><p> For one, the Street will be looking for signs that the sales surge for Macs and iPads is sustainable—and that the company is keeping up with demand despite widespread chip and display shortages. Some investors worry that the spike in PC demand could ebb as more people return to schools and offices. They’ll be looking for company guidance on that point.</p><p><blockquote>其一，华尔街将寻找Mac和iPad销量激增可持续的迹象，以及尽管芯片和显示屏普遍短缺，但该公司仍能满足需求的迹象。一些投资者担心，随着越来越多的人返回学校和办公室，个人电脑需求的激增可能会消退。他们将在这一点上寻求公司的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Another is the sustainability of the resurgence in iPhone growth. There were high hopes among bulls that the iPhone 12 would drive a “supercycle” with an accelerated replacement cycle. Several analysts have noted that a clear consumer preference for the high end of the iPhone 12 line is driving up average selling prices, which should support a strong revenue quarter for the segment.</p><p><blockquote>另一个是iPhone增长复苏的可持续性。多头曾寄予厚望，认为iPhone 12将推动换机周期加速的“超级周期”。几位分析师指出，消费者对iPhone 12系列高端产品的明显偏好正在推高平均售价，这应该会支持该细分市场强劲的收入季度。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the later-than-seasonal launch of new iPhones in the fall of 2020, we believe iPhone demand will experience more favorable year-over-year comparisons this March quarter compared to past years,” writes Monness Crespi Hardt’s Brian White, who sees 47% iPhone revenue growth during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>Monness Crespi Hardt的布莱恩·怀特(Brian White)写道：“鉴于2020年秋季新款iPhone的发布时间晚于季节性，我们相信，与过去几年相比，今年3月季度的iPhone需求将经历更有利的同比比较。”预计本季度iPhone收入将增长47%。</blockquote></p><p> And if Apple pulls it all together? Apple could crush Street estimates, writes Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who has an Overweight rating and a $158 price target on the stock, up 17% from Monday’s close of $134.72. She sees the top line above $80 billion, with all segments growing at least 19% year over year. She is especially bullish on Mac and iPad sales, with estimates far above consensus—53% for Macs and 52% for iPads. She also expects Apple to increase its dividend by 10% and expand its stock repurchase program by $60 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果把这一切都拼凑起来呢？摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·休伯蒂(Katy Huberty)写道，苹果可能会超出华尔街的预期，她对该股给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为158美元，较周一收盘价134.72美元上涨17%。她预计营收将超过800亿美元，所有细分市场同比至少增长19%。她尤其看好Mac和iPad的销量，预期远高于市场普遍预期——Mac销量为53%，iPad销量为52%。她还预计苹果将股息增加10%，并将股票回购计划扩大600亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> That would certainly qualify as a job well done.</p><p><blockquote>这当然是一项出色的工作。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Could Blow the Top Off Earnings—Again. What That Would Mean for the Stock.<blockquote>苹果可能会再次打破盈利上限。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Could Blow the Top Off Earnings—Again. What That Would Mean for the Stock.<blockquote>苹果可能会再次打破盈利上限。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-28 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple has its work cut out for it trying to surpass 2020’s blowout results. The thing is, the tech giant just might be able to pull it off.</p><p><blockquote>苹果要想超越2020年的井喷业绩，还有很多工作要做。问题是，这家科技巨头也许能够成功。</blockquote></p><p> The buzz around Apple last year was off the charts, even for what is the buzziest of technology companies. Anticipation of the fall launch of the company’s first 5G phones, surging demand for both Macs and iPads as the pandemic rolled on, and strength in both wearables and services fed off each other. The pieces all came together in the December quarter, when Apple (ticker: AAPL) posted&nbsp;its biggest quarter ever. Sales soared 21% to $111.4 billion, more than $8 billion over the Street consensus. Every product category—iPhone, iPad, Macs, wearables, and services—notched double-digit growth. Apple stock finished the year up 81%, adding nearly $1 trillion to its market cap.</p><p><blockquote>去年围绕苹果的热度超出了图表，即使是对于最热门的科技公司来说也是如此。对该公司首款5G手机将于秋季推出的预期，随着疫情的发展，对Mac和iPad的需求激增，以及可穿戴设备和服务的实力相互促进。所有这些因素都在12月季度集中在一起，当时苹果（股票代码：AAPL）公布了有史以来最大的季度业绩。销售额飙升21%，达到1114亿美元，比华尔街普遍预期高出80亿美元。每个产品类别——iPhone、iPad、Mac、可穿戴设备和服务——都实现了两位数的增长。苹果股价全年上涨81%，市值增加近1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> That’s a tough act to follow, particularly with the March quarter, which always slows from the holiday-boosted December quarter. But Apple could pull off the quintuple double again when its results come out after the bell Wednesday. The Street certainly thinks so, even if the market, which has pushed Apple shares up less than 2% in 2021, has been more cautious. Consensus estimates call for double-digit increases from last year across the board: iPhones sales up 43%, to $41.4 billion; iPad sales up 29%, to $5.6 billion; Mac sales of $6.8 billion, up 27%; wearables sales (mostly Apple Watch and AirPods) of $7.4 billion, up 18%; and a 16% bump in services, to $15.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很难遵循的行为，尤其是在3月份季度，该季度总是比假期提振的12月份季度放缓。但当周三盘后公布结果时，苹果可能会再次实现五倍的增长。华尔街当然是这么认为的，尽管2021年推动苹果股价上涨不到2%的市场更加谨慎。市场普遍预计看涨期权将比去年全面实现两位数增长：iPhone销售额增长43%，达到414亿美元；iPad销售额增长29%，达到56亿美元；Mac销售额68亿美元，增长27%；可穿戴设备销售额（主要是苹果手表和AirPods）为74亿美元，增长18%；服务业增长16%，达到155亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the Street consensus expects sales of $77 billion, up 32% from a year ago, with profits of 98 cents a share. That would be the fastest top-line growth rate for any Apple quarter since March 2012, when revenues were about half what they are now. And most bullish Apple analysts seem to think their own estimates are too low—a print at $77 billion would likely trigger a selloff in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，华尔街普遍预计销售额为770亿美元，比去年同期增长32%，每股利润为98美分。这将是苹果自2012年3月以来最快的营收增长率，当时的收入约为现在的一半。大多数看涨的苹果分析师似乎认为他们自己的估计太低了——770亿美元的股价可能会引发该股的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is also&nbsp;expected to provide an update on its capital-allocation strategy. A year ago,the company announced a 6% dividend increase, and boosted its stock repurchase plan by $50 billion. Apple has said repeatedly that it is pushing to get to a cash neutral position, but its remarkably big cash flow has slowed progress toward that goal.</p><p><blockquote>预计苹果还将提供其资本配置策略的最新信息。一年前，该公司宣布将股息增加6%，并将股票回购计划增加500亿美元。苹果一再表示，它正在努力实现现金中性头寸，但其庞大的现金流减缓了实现这一目标的进展。</blockquote></p><p> As always, the quarter is about more than just earnings.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，本季度不仅仅是盈利。</blockquote></p><p> For one, the Street will be looking for signs that the sales surge for Macs and iPads is sustainable—and that the company is keeping up with demand despite widespread chip and display shortages. Some investors worry that the spike in PC demand could ebb as more people return to schools and offices. They’ll be looking for company guidance on that point.</p><p><blockquote>其一，华尔街将寻找Mac和iPad销量激增可持续的迹象，以及尽管芯片和显示屏普遍短缺，但该公司仍能满足需求的迹象。一些投资者担心，随着越来越多的人返回学校和办公室，个人电脑需求的激增可能会消退。他们将在这一点上寻求公司的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Another is the sustainability of the resurgence in iPhone growth. There were high hopes among bulls that the iPhone 12 would drive a “supercycle” with an accelerated replacement cycle. Several analysts have noted that a clear consumer preference for the high end of the iPhone 12 line is driving up average selling prices, which should support a strong revenue quarter for the segment.</p><p><blockquote>另一个是iPhone增长复苏的可持续性。多头曾寄予厚望，认为iPhone 12将推动换机周期加速的“超级周期”。几位分析师指出，消费者对iPhone 12系列高端产品的明显偏好正在推高平均售价，这应该会支持该细分市场强劲的收入季度。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the later-than-seasonal launch of new iPhones in the fall of 2020, we believe iPhone demand will experience more favorable year-over-year comparisons this March quarter compared to past years,” writes Monness Crespi Hardt’s Brian White, who sees 47% iPhone revenue growth during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>Monness Crespi Hardt的布莱恩·怀特(Brian White)写道：“鉴于2020年秋季新款iPhone的发布时间晚于季节性，我们相信，与过去几年相比，今年3月季度的iPhone需求将经历更有利的同比比较。”预计本季度iPhone收入将增长47%。</blockquote></p><p> And if Apple pulls it all together? Apple could crush Street estimates, writes Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who has an Overweight rating and a $158 price target on the stock, up 17% from Monday’s close of $134.72. She sees the top line above $80 billion, with all segments growing at least 19% year over year. She is especially bullish on Mac and iPad sales, with estimates far above consensus—53% for Macs and 52% for iPads. She also expects Apple to increase its dividend by 10% and expand its stock repurchase program by $60 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果把这一切都拼凑起来呢？摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·休伯蒂(Katy Huberty)写道，苹果可能会超出华尔街的预期，她对该股给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为158美元，较周一收盘价134.72美元上涨17%。她预计营收将超过800亿美元，所有细分市场同比至少增长19%。她尤其看好Mac和iPad的销量，预期远高于市场普遍预期——Mac销量为53%，iPad销量为52%。她还预计苹果将股息增加10%，并将股票回购计划扩大600亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> That would certainly qualify as a job well done.</p><p><blockquote>这当然是一项出色的工作。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-could-blow-the-top-off-earningsagain-what-that-would-mean-for-the-stock-51619495288?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-could-blow-the-top-off-earningsagain-what-that-would-mean-for-the-stock-51619495288?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179396069","content_text":"Apple has its work cut out for it trying to surpass 2020’s blowout results. The thing is, the tech giant just might be able to pull it off.\nThe buzz around Apple last year was off the charts, even for what is the buzziest of technology companies. Anticipation of the fall launch of the company’s first 5G phones, surging demand for both Macs and iPads as the pandemic rolled on, and strength in both wearables and services fed off each other. The pieces all came together in the December quarter, when Apple (ticker: AAPL) posted its biggest quarter ever. Sales soared 21% to $111.4 billion, more than $8 billion over the Street consensus. Every product category—iPhone, iPad, Macs, wearables, and services—notched double-digit growth. Apple stock finished the year up 81%, adding nearly $1 trillion to its market cap.\nThat’s a tough act to follow, particularly with the March quarter, which always slows from the holiday-boosted December quarter. But Apple could pull off the quintuple double again when its results come out after the bell Wednesday. The Street certainly thinks so, even if the market, which has pushed Apple shares up less than 2% in 2021, has been more cautious. Consensus estimates call for double-digit increases from last year across the board: iPhones sales up 43%, to $41.4 billion; iPad sales up 29%, to $5.6 billion; Mac sales of $6.8 billion, up 27%; wearables sales (mostly Apple Watch and AirPods) of $7.4 billion, up 18%; and a 16% bump in services, to $15.5 billion.\nOverall, the Street consensus expects sales of $77 billion, up 32% from a year ago, with profits of 98 cents a share. That would be the fastest top-line growth rate for any Apple quarter since March 2012, when revenues were about half what they are now. And most bullish Apple analysts seem to think their own estimates are too low—a print at $77 billion would likely trigger a selloff in the stock.\nApple is also expected to provide an update on its capital-allocation strategy. A year ago,the company announced a 6% dividend increase, and boosted its stock repurchase plan by $50 billion. Apple has said repeatedly that it is pushing to get to a cash neutral position, but its remarkably big cash flow has slowed progress toward that goal.\nAs always, the quarter is about more than just earnings.\nFor one, the Street will be looking for signs that the sales surge for Macs and iPads is sustainable—and that the company is keeping up with demand despite widespread chip and display shortages. Some investors worry that the spike in PC demand could ebb as more people return to schools and offices. They’ll be looking for company guidance on that point.\nAnother is the sustainability of the resurgence in iPhone growth. There were high hopes among bulls that the iPhone 12 would drive a “supercycle” with an accelerated replacement cycle. Several analysts have noted that a clear consumer preference for the high end of the iPhone 12 line is driving up average selling prices, which should support a strong revenue quarter for the segment.\n“Given the later-than-seasonal launch of new iPhones in the fall of 2020, we believe iPhone demand will experience more favorable year-over-year comparisons this March quarter compared to past years,” writes Monness Crespi Hardt’s Brian White, who sees 47% iPhone revenue growth during the quarter.\nAnd if Apple pulls it all together? Apple could crush Street estimates, writes Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who has an Overweight rating and a $158 price target on the stock, up 17% from Monday’s close of $134.72. She sees the top line above $80 billion, with all segments growing at least 19% year over year. She is especially bullish on Mac and iPad sales, with estimates far above consensus—53% for Macs and 52% for iPads. She also expects Apple to increase its dividend by 10% and expand its stock repurchase program by $60 billion.\nThat would certainly qualify as a job well done.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351595106,"gmtCreate":1616601464805,"gmtModify":1634524960961,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351595106","repostId":"1175341082","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195285875,"gmtCreate":1621297456897,"gmtModify":1634192717596,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gg","listText":"Gg","text":"Gg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195285875","repostId":"1183166249","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107871783,"gmtCreate":1620473513542,"gmtModify":1634198519271,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woof woof","listText":"Woof woof","text":"Woof woof","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107871783","repostId":"1160802774","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160802774","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620442206,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160802774?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 10:50","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克将主持“周六夜现场”，狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160802774","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue Un","content":"<p>Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.</p><p><blockquote>Nikki Beesetti早在2017年就开始投资加密货币，并用出售她心血来潮购买的一枚比特币的收益支付了她在普渡大学的最后一个学期的费用，该收益已飙升至近2万美元。</blockquote></p><p>Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin&nbsp;,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>现在，纽约一家初创公司的产品经理正在涉足狗狗币，并认为本周末可能是这种模仿硬币的成败时刻，这种模仿硬币在2021年上涨了近13,000%。</blockquote></p><p>“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti在接受MarketWatch电话采访时表示：“本周六将是狗狗币成败的关键。”</blockquote></p><p>“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果他真的能传达正确的信息，狗狗币就能真正起飞……否则它就会崩溃到任何它要崩溃的地方，”她说。</blockquote></p><p>The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.</p><p><blockquote>这位25岁的投资者是众多相对年轻的交易员之一，他们涌入狗狗币等投机性山寨币，因为这种所谓的笑话资产造就了百万富翁，并引起了一些人对新兴加密货币综合体中正在形成泡沫的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克将于本周末主持NBC深夜直播电视喜剧小品节目“周六夜现场”，他即将到来的亮相已经引起了欢呼和嘲笑。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla&nbsp;has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge,&nbsp;tweeting back on April 1&nbsp;that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克一直是狗狗币和加密货币最大的支持者之一。这位自封的特斯拉“技术之王”主要利用其庞大的社交媒体粉丝来抬高doge的价格，他于4月1日在推特上表示，他将使用SpaceX火箭将实体doge硬币放在真正的月球上，呼应了社交媒体将硬币价格“带到月球”的目标。</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.</p><p><blockquote>比塞蒂表示，她第一次涉足狗狗币是在马斯克去年夏天社交媒体信件的推动下，她还投资科技股和交易所交易基金。</blockquote></p><p>She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.</p><p><blockquote>她在狗狗币的交易价格为3/10美分时买入了它，尽管去年8月它达到了1美分左右，但她仍保持了她在2013年创建的数字资产中的美元成本平均头寸。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin&nbsp;and Ethereum&nbsp;,the two largest cryptos in the world.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克已成为Reddit等网站上狗狗币持有者的聚集点，他即将在“SNL”上亮相是加密货币市场内外备受期待的时刻，该市场主要集中在比特币和以太币这两个世界上最大的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币长期以来在数字资产领域一直享有笑话货币的美誉，但很难否认其飙升的价值引起了大街和华尔街的关注——至少暂时如此。</blockquote></p><p>Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>前《SNL》演员兼喜剧演员大卫·斯派德(David Spade)周四在推特上表示，他想知道马斯克出现在小品节目中是否相当于为doge制作了一部90分钟的电视广告，并补充说，也许是开玩笑地说，他正在购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com&nbsp;have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.</p><p><blockquote>博彩平台SportsBettingDime.com的赔率制定了许多关于马斯克出现在《周六夜现场》上的适当赌注，包括他在节目中首先提到的任何加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:</p><p><blockquote>马斯克首先提到的是哪种加密货币：</blockquote></p><p>1. Bitcoin: -200</p><p><blockquote>1.比特币：-200</blockquote></p><p>2. Dogecoin: +600</p><p><blockquote>2.狗狗币：+600</blockquote></p><p>3. FIELD: +450</p><p><blockquote>3.字段：+450</blockquote></p><p>4. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400</p><p><blockquote>4.没有提到比特币：+400</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti表示，她最近出售了价值约8,000美元的狗狗币，购买了一双Gucci鞋、一部iPhone，并根据以太币协议提高了她在以太thar的头寸，但在其他方面一直是doge的稳定持有者。</blockquote></p><p>The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>该投资者不愿提供具体数字，但表示她目前持有的狗狗币在50,000至100,000枚之间。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.</p><p><blockquote>也许与doge的一些投资者不同，她并不对它具有实用性抱有幻想，而是接受了这样一种可能性：势头可能会在模仿资产中积累到一定程度，从而锻造自己的合法性。</blockquote></p><p>“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”</p><p><blockquote>“Doge没有内在价值，”比塞蒂说。“如果你和一群人相信它，价值就会变得真实。在这种情况下，相信它的群体和人比以前更多。”</blockquote></p><p>That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，至少一位分析师表示，现实可能会在周日早上对模因币持有者造成沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p>“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term&nbsp;Dogecoin&nbsp;bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)在一份研究报告中写道：“SNL之后，一旦狗狗币明显不会飙升至月球或达到备受关注的1美元水平，一些加密货币交易员可能会放弃短期狗狗币押注。”笔记。</blockquote></p><p>The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师还指出，狗狗币投资者（在加密货币界被称为霍德勒）的坚定信念可能会违背逻辑并保持价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.</p><p><blockquote>这位Oanda策略师表示：“一直致力于Doge的散户交易员可能仍然是顽固的霍德勒，因此如果没有发生卖出事件反应，我们不应该感到惊讶。”</blockquote></p><p>How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币的结局如何，谁也说不准。</blockquote></p><p>“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.</p><p><blockquote>“这只是一种模因货币，但有时最有趣的结果会成为现实，”比塞蒂说。</blockquote></p><p>That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures&nbsp;are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;and the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;has gained about over 6% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数其他资产相比，这种模因货币经历了惊人的上涨。今年迄今为止，黄金期货下跌了3%，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数在2021年上涨了近13%，而纳斯达克综合指数今年迄今为止的涨幅约超过6%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克将主持“周六夜现场”，狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克将主持“周六夜现场”，狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 10:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.</p><p><blockquote>Nikki Beesetti早在2017年就开始投资加密货币，并用出售她心血来潮购买的一枚比特币的收益支付了她在普渡大学的最后一个学期的费用，该收益已飙升至近2万美元。</blockquote></p><p>Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin&nbsp;,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>现在，纽约一家初创公司的产品经理正在涉足狗狗币，并认为本周末可能是这种模仿硬币的成败时刻，这种模仿硬币在2021年上涨了近13,000%。</blockquote></p><p>“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti在接受MarketWatch电话采访时表示：“本周六将是狗狗币成败的关键。”</blockquote></p><p>“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果他真的能传达正确的信息，狗狗币就能真正起飞……否则它就会崩溃到任何它要崩溃的地方，”她说。</blockquote></p><p>The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.</p><p><blockquote>这位25岁的投资者是众多相对年轻的交易员之一，他们涌入狗狗币等投机性山寨币，因为这种所谓的笑话资产造就了百万富翁，并引起了一些人对新兴加密货币综合体中正在形成泡沫的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克将于本周末主持NBC深夜直播电视喜剧小品节目“周六夜现场”，他即将到来的亮相已经引起了欢呼和嘲笑。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla&nbsp;has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge,&nbsp;tweeting back on April 1&nbsp;that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克一直是狗狗币和加密货币最大的支持者之一。这位自封的特斯拉“技术之王”主要利用其庞大的社交媒体粉丝来抬高doge的价格，他于4月1日在推特上表示，他将使用SpaceX火箭将实体doge硬币放在真正的月球上，呼应了社交媒体将硬币价格“带到月球”的目标。</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.</p><p><blockquote>比塞蒂表示，她第一次涉足狗狗币是在马斯克去年夏天社交媒体信件的推动下，她还投资科技股和交易所交易基金。</blockquote></p><p>She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.</p><p><blockquote>她在狗狗币的交易价格为3/10美分时买入了它，尽管去年8月它达到了1美分左右，但她仍保持了她在2013年创建的数字资产中的美元成本平均头寸。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin&nbsp;and Ethereum&nbsp;,the two largest cryptos in the world.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克已成为Reddit等网站上狗狗币持有者的聚集点，他即将在“SNL”上亮相是加密货币市场内外备受期待的时刻，该市场主要集中在比特币和以太币这两个世界上最大的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币长期以来在数字资产领域一直享有笑话货币的美誉，但很难否认其飙升的价值引起了大街和华尔街的关注——至少暂时如此。</blockquote></p><p>Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>前《SNL》演员兼喜剧演员大卫·斯派德(David Spade)周四在推特上表示，他想知道马斯克出现在小品节目中是否相当于为doge制作了一部90分钟的电视广告，并补充说，也许是开玩笑地说，他正在购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com&nbsp;have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.</p><p><blockquote>博彩平台SportsBettingDime.com的赔率制定了许多关于马斯克出现在《周六夜现场》上的适当赌注，包括他在节目中首先提到的任何加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:</p><p><blockquote>马斯克首先提到的是哪种加密货币：</blockquote></p><p>1. Bitcoin: -200</p><p><blockquote>1.比特币：-200</blockquote></p><p>2. Dogecoin: +600</p><p><blockquote>2.狗狗币：+600</blockquote></p><p>3. FIELD: +450</p><p><blockquote>3.字段：+450</blockquote></p><p>4. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400</p><p><blockquote>4.没有提到比特币：+400</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti表示，她最近出售了价值约8,000美元的狗狗币，购买了一双Gucci鞋、一部iPhone，并根据以太币协议提高了她在以太thar的头寸，但在其他方面一直是doge的稳定持有者。</blockquote></p><p>The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>该投资者不愿提供具体数字，但表示她目前持有的狗狗币在50,000至100,000枚之间。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.</p><p><blockquote>也许与doge的一些投资者不同，她并不对它具有实用性抱有幻想，而是接受了这样一种可能性：势头可能会在模仿资产中积累到一定程度，从而锻造自己的合法性。</blockquote></p><p>“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”</p><p><blockquote>“Doge没有内在价值，”比塞蒂说。“如果你和一群人相信它，价值就会变得真实。在这种情况下，相信它的群体和人比以前更多。”</blockquote></p><p>That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，至少一位分析师表示，现实可能会在周日早上对模因币持有者造成沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p>“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term&nbsp;Dogecoin&nbsp;bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)在一份研究报告中写道：“SNL之后，一旦狗狗币明显不会飙升至月球或达到备受关注的1美元水平，一些加密货币交易员可能会放弃短期狗狗币押注。”笔记。</blockquote></p><p>The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师还指出，狗狗币投资者（在加密货币界被称为霍德勒）的坚定信念可能会违背逻辑并保持价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.</p><p><blockquote>这位Oanda策略师表示：“一直致力于Doge的散户交易员可能仍然是顽固的霍德勒，因此如果没有发生卖出事件反应，我们不应该感到惊讶。”</blockquote></p><p>How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币的结局如何，谁也说不准。</blockquote></p><p>“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.</p><p><blockquote>“这只是一种模因货币，但有时最有趣的结果会成为现实，”比塞蒂说。</blockquote></p><p>That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures&nbsp;are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;and the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;has gained about over 6% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数其他资产相比，这种模因货币经历了惊人的上涨。今年迄今为止，黄金期货下跌了3%，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数在2021年上涨了近13%，而纳斯达克综合指数今年迄今为止的涨幅约超过6%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160802774","content_text":"Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin ,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn cheers and jeers.Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge, tweeting back on April 1 that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin and Ethereum ,the two largest cryptos in the world.Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:1. Bitcoin: -2002. Dogecoin: +6003. FIELD: +4504. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term Dogecoin bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has gained about over 6% so far this year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191835527,"gmtCreate":1620868486769,"gmtModify":1634195756998,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good time to load up some stocks","listText":"Good time to load up some stocks","text":"Good time to load up some stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191835527","repostId":"2135584610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193242676,"gmtCreate":1620794327595,"gmtModify":1634196234008,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193242676","repostId":"2134698127","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101321597,"gmtCreate":1619848245019,"gmtModify":1634209484461,"author":{"id":"3573728905231423","authorId":"3573728905231423","name":"MagPie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86bf766e96cabebb79ece6877432d5da","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573728905231423","idStr":"3573728905231423"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101321597","repostId":"1155857726","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}