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Keatz

Keatz

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2021-07-23

Good

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2021-07-23

The king

Microsoft Stock Hits New High as Street Raises Price Targets Ahead of Earnings<blockquote>华尔街在财报公布前上调目标价，微软股价创下新高</blockquote>

2021-07-23

Go tech!

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2021-07-06

$SKLZ 20210716 23.0 CALL(SKLZ)$🎉🎉

2021-06-29

Gogogo!

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2021-06-29

Let’s go!

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2021-06-28

Wow.. gogogo!

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2021-06-28

Hope for the best

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2021-06-28

Another IPO

US IPO Week Ahead: DiDi makes its billion-dollar debut in a 17 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO未来一周：滴滴在17个IPO周内首次亮相10亿美元</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Buy!

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2021-06-27

Ouch

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2021-06-27

👍🏻

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2021-06-27

Netflix.. everyone love this

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2021-06-27

Gogogo

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2021-06-27

Buy if go lower

Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Oh no~

Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Oh no~

Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote>

2021-06-23

Aisk

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2021-06-23

Let’s go!

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2021-06-23

Nah

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king","listText":"The king","text":"The king","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175933502","repostId":"1136017934","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136017934","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627000834,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136017934?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-23 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft Stock Hits New High as Street Raises Price Targets Ahead of Earnings<blockquote>华尔街在财报公布前上调目标价，微软股价创下新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136017934","media":"Barrons","summary":"Amid growing signs of an acceleration of corporate IT spending, Wall Street analysts are ratcheting ","content":"<p>Amid growing signs of an acceleration of corporate IT spending, Wall Street analysts are ratcheting up expectations for Microsoft, which is due to report fiscal-fourth-quarter results on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>随着企业IT支出加速的迹象越来越多，华尔街分析师正在提高对微软的预期，该公司将于周二公布第四财季业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The bullish sentiment has driven Microsoft shares (ticker: MSFT) to a record high. The stock is up 1.7%, at $286.11, in recent trading. It is up nearly 29% year to date, driving the company’s market cap to $2.1 trillion, trailing only Apple (AAPL) at $2.5 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>看涨情绪推动微软股价（股票代码：MSFT）创下历史新高。该股在最近的交易中上涨1.7%，至286.11美元。今年迄今已上涨近29%，推动该公司市值达到2.1万亿美元，仅次于苹果(AAPL)的2.5万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Street consensus calls for Microsoft revenue of $44.1 billion and profits of $1.90 a share. Microsoft provides guidance for each of its three reporting segments; at the top of the projected range for each, revenues would be $44.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街一致认为微软营收为441亿美元，每股利润为1.90美元。微软为其三个报告部门中的每一个提供指导；在两者预计范围的顶部，收入将为445亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft forecast June-quarter revenue from its Productivity and Business Processes segment (which includes Office) of $13.8 billion to $14.05 billion; for Intelligent Cloud (including Azure), $16.2 billion to $16.45 billion; and for More Personal Computing (including Windows and Xbox), $13.6 billion to $14 billion.</p><p><blockquote>微软预测其生产力和业务流程部门（包括Office）6月份季度收入为138亿美元至140.5亿美元；对于智能云（包括Azure），162亿至164.5亿美元；对于更多的个人计算（包括Windows和Xbox），136亿至140亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the September quarter, the Street consensus calls for revenue of $42.5 billion and profits of $1.95 a share.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街一致认为9月份季度的营收为425亿美元，每股利润为1.95美元。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s software analysts have been busily surveying Microsoft’s partners and resellers for clues to the quarter, and they’re all finding reasons for optimism.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的软件分析师一直忙于调查微软的合作伙伴和经销商，以寻找本季度的线索，他们都在寻找乐观的理由。</blockquote></p><p> Citigroup analyst Tyler Radke on Thursday repeated his Buy rating on Microsoft shares, jumping his target price to a Street-high $378 from $310, after a survey of IT resellers. His new target implies a 35% upside from Wednesday’s closing level. Radke expects a strong finish to the company’s fiscal year, driven by recovering IT budgets, reacceleration in Azure, and continued strength in personal computer sales. He writes that Microsoft remains his favorite pick in the megacap software sector, with “multiple levers” for double-digit growth.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团分析师泰勒·拉德克(Tyler Radke)周四重申了对微软股票的买入评级，在对IT经销商进行调查后，将目标价从310美元上调至华尔街高点378美元。他的新目标意味着较周三收盘水平上涨35%。Radke预计，在IT预算恢复、Azure的重新加速以及个人电脑销售持续强劲的推动下，公司本财年将取得强劲收官。他写道，微软仍然是他在大型软件行业中最喜欢的选择，拥有实现两位数增长的“多重杠杆”。</blockquote></p><p> BofA Securities analyst Brad Sills likewise reiterates a Buy rating after a series of “channel checks,” while upping his target to $325 from $305. He thinks revenue could beat consensus by 2% to 3%, driven by strength in Azure and Office 365 demand. Sills believes Azure can continue to grow at better than 50%, following 59% growth in the March quarter. (He notes that the company gets a relatively easy comparison on Azure, with 47% growth in the year-earlier quarter.)</p><p><blockquote>美国银行证券分析师Brad Sills在经过一系列“渠道检查”后同样重申了买入评级，同时将目标从305美元上调至325美元。他认为，在Azure和Office 365需求强劲的推动下，收入可能会超出市场预期2%至3%。Sills认为，继3月份季度增长59%之后，Azure可以继续以超过50%的速度增长。（他指出，该公司在Azure上的比较相对容易，去年同期增长了47%。）</blockquote></p><p> KeyBanc analyst Michael Turits maintains his Overweight rating on Microsoft, while lifting his target to $330 from $305. His call is part of a broadly optimistic take on June quarter IT spending based on a reseller survey. He says respondents now see 5.6% growth in 2021 IT budgets, up from 4.6% in the first-quarter version of the same survey. Turits writes that the survey found Microsoft’s strategic importance is increasing. He also raised targets on Arista Networks (ANET), Commvault (CVLT), Fortinet (FTNT), Okta (OKTA), Oracle (ORCL), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and Vonage Holdings (VG).</p><p><blockquote>KeyBanc分析师Michael Turits维持微软的跑赢大盘评级，同时将目标价从305美元上调至330美元。根据经销商调查，他的看涨期权是对6月份季度IT支出普遍乐观的一部分。他表示，受访者现在预计2021年IT预算将增长5.6%，高于同一调查第一季度的4.6%。图里茨写道，调查发现微软的战略重要性正在增加。他还上调了Arista Networks(ANET)、Commvault(CVLT)、Fortinet(FTNT)、Okta(OKTA)、Oracle(ORCL)、Palo Alto Networks(PANW)和Vonage Holdings(VG)的目标。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft Stock Hits New High as Street Raises Price Targets Ahead of Earnings<blockquote>华尔街在财报公布前上调目标价，微软股价创下新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft Stock Hits New High as Street Raises Price Targets Ahead of Earnings<blockquote>华尔街在财报公布前上调目标价，微软股价创下新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-23 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amid growing signs of an acceleration of corporate IT spending, Wall Street analysts are ratcheting up expectations for Microsoft, which is due to report fiscal-fourth-quarter results on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>随着企业IT支出加速的迹象越来越多，华尔街分析师正在提高对微软的预期，该公司将于周二公布第四财季业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The bullish sentiment has driven Microsoft shares (ticker: MSFT) to a record high. The stock is up 1.7%, at $286.11, in recent trading. It is up nearly 29% year to date, driving the company’s market cap to $2.1 trillion, trailing only Apple (AAPL) at $2.5 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>看涨情绪推动微软股价（股票代码：MSFT）创下历史新高。该股在最近的交易中上涨1.7%，至286.11美元。今年迄今已上涨近29%，推动该公司市值达到2.1万亿美元，仅次于苹果(AAPL)的2.5万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Street consensus calls for Microsoft revenue of $44.1 billion and profits of $1.90 a share. Microsoft provides guidance for each of its three reporting segments; at the top of the projected range for each, revenues would be $44.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街一致认为微软营收为441亿美元，每股利润为1.90美元。微软为其三个报告部门中的每一个提供指导；在两者预计范围的顶部，收入将为445亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft forecast June-quarter revenue from its Productivity and Business Processes segment (which includes Office) of $13.8 billion to $14.05 billion; for Intelligent Cloud (including Azure), $16.2 billion to $16.45 billion; and for More Personal Computing (including Windows and Xbox), $13.6 billion to $14 billion.</p><p><blockquote>微软预测其生产力和业务流程部门（包括Office）6月份季度收入为138亿美元至140.5亿美元；对于智能云（包括Azure），162亿至164.5亿美元；对于更多的个人计算（包括Windows和Xbox），136亿至140亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the September quarter, the Street consensus calls for revenue of $42.5 billion and profits of $1.95 a share.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街一致认为9月份季度的营收为425亿美元，每股利润为1.95美元。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s software analysts have been busily surveying Microsoft’s partners and resellers for clues to the quarter, and they’re all finding reasons for optimism.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的软件分析师一直忙于调查微软的合作伙伴和经销商，以寻找本季度的线索，他们都在寻找乐观的理由。</blockquote></p><p> Citigroup analyst Tyler Radke on Thursday repeated his Buy rating on Microsoft shares, jumping his target price to a Street-high $378 from $310, after a survey of IT resellers. His new target implies a 35% upside from Wednesday’s closing level. Radke expects a strong finish to the company’s fiscal year, driven by recovering IT budgets, reacceleration in Azure, and continued strength in personal computer sales. He writes that Microsoft remains his favorite pick in the megacap software sector, with “multiple levers” for double-digit growth.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团分析师泰勒·拉德克(Tyler Radke)周四重申了对微软股票的买入评级，在对IT经销商进行调查后，将目标价从310美元上调至华尔街高点378美元。他的新目标意味着较周三收盘水平上涨35%。Radke预计，在IT预算恢复、Azure的重新加速以及个人电脑销售持续强劲的推动下，公司本财年将取得强劲收官。他写道，微软仍然是他在大型软件行业中最喜欢的选择，拥有实现两位数增长的“多重杠杆”。</blockquote></p><p> BofA Securities analyst Brad Sills likewise reiterates a Buy rating after a series of “channel checks,” while upping his target to $325 from $305. He thinks revenue could beat consensus by 2% to 3%, driven by strength in Azure and Office 365 demand. Sills believes Azure can continue to grow at better than 50%, following 59% growth in the March quarter. (He notes that the company gets a relatively easy comparison on Azure, with 47% growth in the year-earlier quarter.)</p><p><blockquote>美国银行证券分析师Brad Sills在经过一系列“渠道检查”后同样重申了买入评级，同时将目标从305美元上调至325美元。他认为，在Azure和Office 365需求强劲的推动下，收入可能会超出市场预期2%至3%。Sills认为，继3月份季度增长59%之后，Azure可以继续以超过50%的速度增长。（他指出，该公司在Azure上的比较相对容易，去年同期增长了47%。）</blockquote></p><p> KeyBanc analyst Michael Turits maintains his Overweight rating on Microsoft, while lifting his target to $330 from $305. His call is part of a broadly optimistic take on June quarter IT spending based on a reseller survey. He says respondents now see 5.6% growth in 2021 IT budgets, up from 4.6% in the first-quarter version of the same survey. Turits writes that the survey found Microsoft’s strategic importance is increasing. He also raised targets on Arista Networks (ANET), Commvault (CVLT), Fortinet (FTNT), Okta (OKTA), Oracle (ORCL), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and Vonage Holdings (VG).</p><p><blockquote>KeyBanc分析师Michael Turits维持微软的跑赢大盘评级，同时将目标价从305美元上调至330美元。根据经销商调查，他的看涨期权是对6月份季度IT支出普遍乐观的一部分。他表示，受访者现在预计2021年IT预算将增长5.6%，高于同一调查第一季度的4.6%。图里茨写道，调查发现微软的战略重要性正在增加。他还上调了Arista Networks(ANET)、Commvault(CVLT)、Fortinet(FTNT)、Okta(OKTA)、Oracle(ORCL)、Palo Alto Networks(PANW)和Vonage Holdings(VG)的目标。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-stock-hits-new-high-as-street-raises-price-targets-ahead-of-earnings-51626965343?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-stock-hits-new-high-as-street-raises-price-targets-ahead-of-earnings-51626965343?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136017934","content_text":"Amid growing signs of an acceleration of corporate IT spending, Wall Street analysts are ratcheting up expectations for Microsoft, which is due to report fiscal-fourth-quarter results on Tuesday.\nThe bullish sentiment has driven Microsoft shares (ticker: MSFT) to a record high. The stock is up 1.7%, at $286.11, in recent trading. It is up nearly 29% year to date, driving the company’s market cap to $2.1 trillion, trailing only Apple (AAPL) at $2.5 trillion.\nStreet consensus calls for Microsoft revenue of $44.1 billion and profits of $1.90 a share. Microsoft provides guidance for each of its three reporting segments; at the top of the projected range for each, revenues would be $44.5 billion.\nMicrosoft forecast June-quarter revenue from its Productivity and Business Processes segment (which includes Office) of $13.8 billion to $14.05 billion; for Intelligent Cloud (including Azure), $16.2 billion to $16.45 billion; and for More Personal Computing (including Windows and Xbox), $13.6 billion to $14 billion.\nFor the September quarter, the Street consensus calls for revenue of $42.5 billion and profits of $1.95 a share.\nWall Street’s software analysts have been busily surveying Microsoft’s partners and resellers for clues to the quarter, and they’re all finding reasons for optimism.\nCitigroup analyst Tyler Radke on Thursday repeated his Buy rating on Microsoft shares, jumping his target price to a Street-high $378 from $310, after a survey of IT resellers. His new target implies a 35% upside from Wednesday’s closing level. Radke expects a strong finish to the company’s fiscal year, driven by recovering IT budgets, reacceleration in Azure, and continued strength in personal computer sales. He writes that Microsoft remains his favorite pick in the megacap software sector, with “multiple levers” for double-digit growth.\nBofA Securities analyst Brad Sills likewise reiterates a Buy rating after a series of “channel checks,” while upping his target to $325 from $305. He thinks revenue could beat consensus by 2% to 3%, driven by strength in Azure and Office 365 demand. Sills believes Azure can continue to grow at better than 50%, following 59% growth in the March quarter. (He notes that the company gets a relatively easy comparison on Azure, with 47% growth in the year-earlier quarter.)\nKeyBanc analyst Michael Turits maintains his Overweight rating on Microsoft, while lifting his target to $330 from $305. His call is part of a broadly optimistic take on June quarter IT spending based on a reseller survey. He says respondents now see 5.6% growth in 2021 IT budgets, up from 4.6% in the first-quarter version of the same survey. Turits writes that the survey found Microsoft’s strategic importance is increasing. He also raised targets on Arista Networks (ANET), Commvault (CVLT), Fortinet (FTNT), Okta (OKTA), Oracle (ORCL), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and Vonage Holdings (VG).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175933350,"gmtCreate":1627001642170,"gmtModify":1631888254833,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go tech!","listText":"Go tech!","text":"Go tech!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175933350","repostId":"1164478982","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157877902,"gmtCreate":1625579278206,"gmtModify":1631886529141,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$SKLZ 20210716 23.0 CALL(SKLZ)$</a>🎉🎉","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$SKLZ 20210716 23.0 CALL(SKLZ)$</a>🎉🎉","text":"$SKLZ 20210716 23.0 CALL(SKLZ)$🎉🎉","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea01df6a7ab2ecf443f8603629b40056","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157877902","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159092300,"gmtCreate":1624930311200,"gmtModify":1631888254842,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo!","listText":"Gogogo!","text":"Gogogo!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159092300","repostId":"1168491065","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159096257,"gmtCreate":1624930291779,"gmtModify":1631888254853,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let’s go!","listText":"Let’s go!","text":"Let’s go!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159096257","repostId":"2147837316","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150010859,"gmtCreate":1624874430771,"gmtModify":1631888254869,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow.. gogogo!","listText":"Wow.. gogogo!","text":"Wow.. gogogo!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150010859","repostId":"1131916495","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150010988,"gmtCreate":1624874411844,"gmtModify":1631884322984,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope for the best&nbsp;","listText":"Hope for the best&nbsp;","text":"Hope for the best","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150010988","repostId":"2146007118","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150037631,"gmtCreate":1624874384723,"gmtModify":1631888254883,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another IPO","listText":"Another IPO","text":"Another IPO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150037631","repostId":"1150095060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150095060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624874134,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150095060?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 17:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: DiDi makes its billion-dollar debut in a 17 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO未来一周：滴滴在17个IPO周内首次亮相10亿美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150095060","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"17 IPOs are slated to raise $9.1 billion in this week, led by long-awaited Chinese ride-hailing giant $DiDi Global Inc.$.DiDi plans to raise $3.9 billion at a $67.5 billion market cap. DiDi is China’s dominant ride-hailing app, with 15 million drivers across 4,000 cities and towns. The unprofitable company saw revenue more than double in the 1Q21 as its business recovered post-pandemic.New and existing investors intend to purchase $1.3 billion of the IPO.Cybersecurity platform $SentinelOne, Inc$","content":"<p>17 IPOs are slated to raise $9.1 billion in this week, led by long-awaited Chinese ride-hailing giant<b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">DiDi Global Inc.</a>.</b></p><p><blockquote>本周17起IPO预计筹集91亿美元，由期待已久的中国网约车巨头领投<b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴全球公司。</a>.</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>DiDi</b>&nbsp;plans to raise $3.9 billion at a $67.5 billion market cap. DiDi is China’s dominant ride-hailing app, with 15 million drivers across 4,000 cities and towns. The unprofitable company saw revenue more than double in the 1Q21 as its business recovered post-pandemic.New and existing investors intend to purchase $1.3 billion of the IPO.</p><p><blockquote><b>迪迪</b>计划以675亿美元的市值筹集39亿美元。滴滴是中国占主导地位的打车应用程序，在4000个城镇拥有1500万司机。随着业务在疫情后复苏，这家尚未盈利的公司在2021年第一季度的收入增长了一倍多。新老投资者打算购买13亿美元的IPO。</blockquote></p><p> Cybersecurity platform&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S\">SentinelOne, Inc</a></b> plans to raise $880 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. SentinelOne's Singularity Platform is an AI-powered extended detection and response platform that ingests, correlates and queries petabytes of structured and unstructured data to provide autonomous cybersecurity defense. Fast growing and unprofitable, the company had over 4,700 customers as of 4/30/21, up from 2,700 a year prior.</p><p><blockquote>网络安全平台<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S\">哨兵一号公司</a></b>计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.8亿美元。SentinelOne的Singularity平台是一个人工智能驱动的扩展检测和响应平台，可以摄取、关联和查询PB的结构化和非结构化数据，以提供自主网络安全防御。截至2011年4月30日，该公司快速增长且未盈利，拥有超过4,700名客户，高于一年前的2,700名。</blockquote></p><p> Turkish e-commerce platform&nbsp;<b>D-MARKET Electronic Services &amp; Trading</b>(HEPS) plans to raise $681 million at a $3.9 billion market cap. Operating under the name Hepsiburada, the company connected 33 million members, 9 million Active Customers, and a base of approximately 45 thousand Active Merchants in 2020. The company is fast growing but EBITDA swung negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>土耳其电商平台<b>D-MARKET电子服务与交易</b>(HEPS)计划以39亿美元的市值筹集6.81亿美元。该公司以Hepsiburada的名义运营，在2020年连接了3300万会员、900万活跃客户和约4.5万家活跃商户。该公司增长迅速，但EBITDA在2021年第一季度上转为负值。</blockquote></p><p> Doughnut brand&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DNUT\"><b>Krispy Kreme, Inc.</a> </b>plans to raise $600 million at a $3.8 billion market cap. Krispy Kreme is an omni-channel business operating through a network of doughnut shops, partnerships with retailers, and an e-Commerce and delivery business. The company has a long track record and strong brand awareness, though its growth strategy is unproven.</p><p><blockquote>甜甜圈品牌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DNUT\"><b>克里斯皮·克雷姆公司。</b></a>计划以38亿美元的市值筹集6亿美元。Krispy Kreme是一家全渠道企业，通过甜甜圈店网络、与零售商的合作伙伴关系以及电子商务和送货业务运营。该公司拥有悠久的业绩记录和强大的品牌知名度，尽管其增长战略尚未得到证实。</blockquote></p><p> Legal solutions provider&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LZ\">LegalZoom.com, Inc</a> </b>plans to raise $488 million at a $5.3 billion market cap. LegalZoom states that it is a leading online platform for legal and compliance solutions, claiming that 10% of new LLCs and 5% of new corporations in the US were formed via LegalZoom in 2020. Profitable on an EBITDA basis in the 1Q21, the company operates across all 50 states and over 3,000 counties in the US.</p><p><blockquote>法律解决方案提供商<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LZ\">LegalZoom.com公司</a></b>计划以53亿美元的市值筹集4.88亿美元。LegalZoom表示，它是法律和合规解决方案的领先在线平台，并声称2020年美国10%的新有限责任公司和5%的新公司是通过LegalZoom成立的。该公司在2021年第一季度以EBITDA为基础实现盈利，业务遍及美国所有50个州和3,000多个县。</blockquote></p><p> Identity verification platform&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YOU\">Clear Secure, Inc.</a></b> plans to raise $376 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. Clear Secure's secure identity platform uses to automate the identity verification process, with main offerings including CLEAR Plus, a consumer aviation subscription service, and two mobile apps. As of 5/31/21, Clear Secure's network included 38 airports, 26 sports and entertainment partners, and 67 Health Pass-enabled partners.</p><p><blockquote>身份验证平台<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YOU\">清晰安全公司。</a></b>计划以41亿美元的市值筹集3.76亿美元。Clear Secure的安全身份平台用于自动化身份验证过程，主要产品包括消费者航空订阅服务CLEAR Plus和两个移动应用程序。截至2011年5月31日，Clear Secure的网络包括38个机场、26个体育和娱乐合作伙伴以及67个支持健康通行证的合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese grocery delivery platform&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong (Cayman) Limited</a> </b>plans to raise $343 million at a $6.0 billion market cap. With fresh groceries as its core product categories, Dingdong states that it is the fastest growing on-demand e-commerce company in China. Unprofitable with explosive growth, the company had a 10% share of the on-demand e-commerce market by GMV in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中国杂货配送平台<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚（开曼）有限公司</a></b>计划以60亿美元的市值筹集3.43亿美元。叮咚表示，以生鲜杂货为核心产品类别，是中国发展最快的按需电子商务公司。由于爆炸式增长，该公司在2020年按GMV计算的按需电子商务市场份额为10%。</blockquote></p><p> SaaS solutions provider&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVCM\">EverCommerce Inc.</a></b> plans to raise $325 million at a $3.4 billion market cap. EverCommerce is a leading provider of integrated, vertically-tailored SaaS solutions for service-based SMBs. The company serves over 500,000 customers across three core verticals: Home Services, Health Services, and Fitness &amp; Wellness Services.</p><p><blockquote>SaaS解决方案提供商<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVCM\">EverCommerce公司。</a></b>计划以34亿美元的市值筹集3.25亿美元。EverCommerce是为服务型中小型企业提供垂直定制的集成SaaS解决方案的领先提供商。该公司为三个核心垂直领域的超过500,000名客户提供服务：家庭服务、健康服务以及健身与健康服务。</blockquote></p><p> Software provider&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTA\">Intapp, Inc.</a> </b>plans to raise $278 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Intapp provides industry-specific, cloud-based software solutions for the professional and financial services industry globally. The company had over 1,600 clients as of March 31, 2021, and it currently has more than 20 clients with contracts greater than $1 million of ARR.</p><p><blockquote>软件供应商<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTA\">Intapp公司。</a></b>计划以19亿美元的市值筹集2.78亿美元。Intapp为全球专业和金融服务行业提供特定行业的基于云的软件解决方案。截至2021年3月31日，该公司拥有超过1,600名客户，目前有超过20名客户的合同ARR超过100万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Online manufacturing marketplace&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XMTR\">Xometry, Inc.</a></b> plans to raise $275 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Xometry states that it is a leading AI-enabled marketplace for on-demand manufacturing. Its buyers include businesses ranging from self-funded start-ups to Fortune 100 companies. Since its inception, over 6.0 million parts have been manufactured through Xometry's platform.</p><p><blockquote>在线制造市场<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XMTR\">Xometry公司。</a></b>计划以19亿美元的市值筹集2.75亿美元。Xometry表示，它是一个领先的人工智能按需制造市场。其买家包括从自筹资金的初创企业到财富100强公司的企业。自成立以来，已通过Xometry平台制造了超过600万个零件。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IAS\">Integral Ad Science Holding LLC</a> </b>plans to raise $240 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. The company’s technology provides metrics designed to verify that digital ads are served to a real person, viewable on-screen, and appear in a brand-safe and suitable environment in the correct geography. Profitable on an EBIT basis, Integral Ad Science served over 2,000 customers as of 3/31/21.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IAS\">积分广告科学控股有限责任公司</a></b>计划以25亿美元的市值筹集2.4亿美元。该公司的技术提供了旨在验证数字广告是否提供给真人、可在屏幕上查看、并出现在正确地理位置的品牌安全和合适的环境中的指标。截至2011年3月31日，Integral Ad Science在EBIT实现盈利，为2,000多名客户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Plus-sized women’s apparel brand&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CURV\">Torrid Holdings</a> </b>plans to raise $156 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Torrid is the largest direct-to-consumer brand of women's plus-size apparel and intimates in North America by net sales. The profitable company markets directly to consumers via physical stores and its e-commerce platform, which represented a majority of sales in the 12 months ended 5/1/21.</p><p><blockquote>大码女装品牌<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CURV\">托瑞德控股</a></b>计划以21亿美元的市值筹集1.56亿美元。按净销售额计算，Torrid是北美最大的直接面向消费者的女性大码服装和内衣品牌。这家盈利的公司通过实体店及其电子商务平台直接向消费者营销，这占截至2011年5月1日的12个月销售额的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Alzheimer’s biotech&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABOS\">Acumen Pharmaceuticals, Inc.</a></b> plans to raise $125 million at a $607 million market cap. The company's lead candidate, ACU193, is a humanized monoclonal antibody that selectively targets amyloid-beta oligomers. ACU193 entered a Phase 1 trial in patients with mild dementia or cognitive impairment due to AD in the 2Q21, with data expected by year end 2022.</p><p><blockquote>阿尔茨海默病生物技术<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABOS\">Acumen制药公司。</a></b>计划以6.07亿美元的市值筹集1.25亿美元。该公司的主要候选药物ACU193是一种选择性靶向β淀粉样蛋白寡聚体的人源化单克隆抗体。ACU193在2021年第二季度进入了针对轻度痴呆或AD导致认知障碍患者的1期试验，预计将于2022年底获得数据。</blockquote></p><p> Digital financial services provider&nbsp;<b>AMTD Digital</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">$(HKD)$</a>) plans to raise $120 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. AMTD Digital states that it is the \"fusion reactor\" at the core of the AMTD SpiderNet ecosystem, operating a comprehensive digital solutions platform in Asia. Profitable with explosive growth, the company primarily generates revenue from fees and commissions in two lines of business.</p><p><blockquote>数字金融服务提供商<b>尚乘数科</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">$(港币)$</a>）计划以14亿美元的市值筹集1.2亿美元。尚乘数科表示，它是尚乘蜘蛛网生态系统核心的“聚变反应堆”，在亚洲运营着全面的数字化解决方案平台。该公司利润呈爆炸式增长，主要通过两个业务线的费用和佣金产生收入。</blockquote></p><p> Drug formulation developer&nbsp;<b>Aerovate Therapeutics</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVTE\">$(AVTE)$</a>) plans to raise $100 million at a $325 million market cap. Aerovate's initial focus is on advancing AV-101, a dry powder inhaled formulation of imatinib for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The company has completed a Phase 1 study in healthy volunteers and expects to begin a Phase 2b/3 trial in PAH patients in the 2H21.</p><p><blockquote>药物制剂开发人员<b>Aerovate疗法</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVTE\">$(AVTE)$</a>）计划以3.25亿美元的市值筹集1亿美元。Aerovate最初的重点是推进AV-101，这是一种用于治疗肺动脉高压（PAH）的伊马替尼干粉吸入制剂。该公司已完成针对健康志愿者的1期研究，并预计将于2021年下半年开始针对PAH患者的2b/3期试验。</blockquote></p><p> Neuromodulation device provider<b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVRX\">CVRx Inc</a> </b>plans to raise $100 million at a $333 million market cap. CVRx manufactures and markets its minimally invasive neuromodulation solutions on its proprietary BAROSTIM platform. The company's states that its BAROSTEM NEO product is the first and only commercially available neuromodulation device indicated to improve symptoms for patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.</p><p><blockquote>神经调节设备提供商<b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVRX\">CVRx公司</a></b>计划以3.33亿美元的市值筹集1亿美元。CVRx在其专有的BAROSTIM平台上制造和销售其微创神经调节解决方案。该公司表示，其BAROSTEM NEO产品是第一款也是唯一一款可用于改善射血分数降低的心力衰竭患者症状的商用神经调节设备。</blockquote></p><p> Belgium-listed&nbsp;<b>Nyxoah</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYXH\">$(NYXH)$</a>) plans to raise $87 million at an $803 million market cap. Nyxoah's lead product is the Genio system, a CE-marked, minimally-invasive hypoglossal neurostimulation therapy for obstructive sleep apnea. The company began generating revenue from Genio in Europe in July 2020 and is currently conducting a pivotal trial designed to support marketing authorization in the US.</p><p><blockquote>比利时上市<b>尼克斯阿</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYXH\">$(NYXH)$</a>）计划以8.03亿美元的市值筹集8700万美元。Nyxoah的主导产品是Genio系统，这是一种通过CE认证的微创舌下神经刺激疗法，用于治疗阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停。该公司于2020年7月开始在欧洲从Genio产生收入，目前正在进行一项旨在支持美国营销授权的关键试验。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f28d5f7f3b8e686c0bd006c2968b99\" tg-width=\"1131\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/508f1118f1d92b2b76391bc3610bd6c4\" tg-width=\"1131\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed04cd42fa30b460fcf67e07efa6ddc7\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/24/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 2.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 13.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.5% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.3%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2011年6月24日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨2.7%，而标普500上涨13.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌1.5%，而ACWX指数上涨10.3%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括思摩尔国际和殷拓合伙人。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: DiDi makes its billion-dollar debut in a 17 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO未来一周：滴滴在17个IPO周内首次亮相10亿美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: DiDi makes its billion-dollar debut in a 17 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO未来一周：滴滴在17个IPO周内首次亮相10亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 17:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>17 IPOs are slated to raise $9.1 billion in this week, led by long-awaited Chinese ride-hailing giant<b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">DiDi Global Inc.</a>.</b></p><p><blockquote>本周17起IPO预计筹集91亿美元，由期待已久的中国网约车巨头领投<b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴全球公司。</a>.</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>DiDi</b>&nbsp;plans to raise $3.9 billion at a $67.5 billion market cap. DiDi is China’s dominant ride-hailing app, with 15 million drivers across 4,000 cities and towns. The unprofitable company saw revenue more than double in the 1Q21 as its business recovered post-pandemic.New and existing investors intend to purchase $1.3 billion of the IPO.</p><p><blockquote><b>迪迪</b>计划以675亿美元的市值筹集39亿美元。滴滴是中国占主导地位的打车应用程序，在4000个城镇拥有1500万司机。随着业务在疫情后复苏，这家尚未盈利的公司在2021年第一季度的收入增长了一倍多。新老投资者打算购买13亿美元的IPO。</blockquote></p><p> Cybersecurity platform&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S\">SentinelOne, Inc</a></b> plans to raise $880 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. SentinelOne's Singularity Platform is an AI-powered extended detection and response platform that ingests, correlates and queries petabytes of structured and unstructured data to provide autonomous cybersecurity defense. Fast growing and unprofitable, the company had over 4,700 customers as of 4/30/21, up from 2,700 a year prior.</p><p><blockquote>网络安全平台<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S\">哨兵一号公司</a></b>计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.8亿美元。SentinelOne的Singularity平台是一个人工智能驱动的扩展检测和响应平台，可以摄取、关联和查询PB的结构化和非结构化数据，以提供自主网络安全防御。截至2011年4月30日，该公司快速增长且未盈利，拥有超过4,700名客户，高于一年前的2,700名。</blockquote></p><p> Turkish e-commerce platform&nbsp;<b>D-MARKET Electronic Services &amp; Trading</b>(HEPS) plans to raise $681 million at a $3.9 billion market cap. Operating under the name Hepsiburada, the company connected 33 million members, 9 million Active Customers, and a base of approximately 45 thousand Active Merchants in 2020. The company is fast growing but EBITDA swung negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>土耳其电商平台<b>D-MARKET电子服务与交易</b>(HEPS)计划以39亿美元的市值筹集6.81亿美元。该公司以Hepsiburada的名义运营，在2020年连接了3300万会员、900万活跃客户和约4.5万家活跃商户。该公司增长迅速，但EBITDA在2021年第一季度上转为负值。</blockquote></p><p> Doughnut brand&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DNUT\"><b>Krispy Kreme, Inc.</a> </b>plans to raise $600 million at a $3.8 billion market cap. Krispy Kreme is an omni-channel business operating through a network of doughnut shops, partnerships with retailers, and an e-Commerce and delivery business. The company has a long track record and strong brand awareness, though its growth strategy is unproven.</p><p><blockquote>甜甜圈品牌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DNUT\"><b>克里斯皮·克雷姆公司。</b></a>计划以38亿美元的市值筹集6亿美元。Krispy Kreme是一家全渠道企业，通过甜甜圈店网络、与零售商的合作伙伴关系以及电子商务和送货业务运营。该公司拥有悠久的业绩记录和强大的品牌知名度，尽管其增长战略尚未得到证实。</blockquote></p><p> Legal solutions provider&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LZ\">LegalZoom.com, Inc</a> </b>plans to raise $488 million at a $5.3 billion market cap. LegalZoom states that it is a leading online platform for legal and compliance solutions, claiming that 10% of new LLCs and 5% of new corporations in the US were formed via LegalZoom in 2020. Profitable on an EBITDA basis in the 1Q21, the company operates across all 50 states and over 3,000 counties in the US.</p><p><blockquote>法律解决方案提供商<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LZ\">LegalZoom.com公司</a></b>计划以53亿美元的市值筹集4.88亿美元。LegalZoom表示，它是法律和合规解决方案的领先在线平台，并声称2020年美国10%的新有限责任公司和5%的新公司是通过LegalZoom成立的。该公司在2021年第一季度以EBITDA为基础实现盈利，业务遍及美国所有50个州和3,000多个县。</blockquote></p><p> Identity verification platform&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YOU\">Clear Secure, Inc.</a></b> plans to raise $376 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. Clear Secure's secure identity platform uses to automate the identity verification process, with main offerings including CLEAR Plus, a consumer aviation subscription service, and two mobile apps. As of 5/31/21, Clear Secure's network included 38 airports, 26 sports and entertainment partners, and 67 Health Pass-enabled partners.</p><p><blockquote>身份验证平台<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YOU\">清晰安全公司。</a></b>计划以41亿美元的市值筹集3.76亿美元。Clear Secure的安全身份平台用于自动化身份验证过程，主要产品包括消费者航空订阅服务CLEAR Plus和两个移动应用程序。截至2011年5月31日，Clear Secure的网络包括38个机场、26个体育和娱乐合作伙伴以及67个支持健康通行证的合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese grocery delivery platform&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong (Cayman) Limited</a> </b>plans to raise $343 million at a $6.0 billion market cap. With fresh groceries as its core product categories, Dingdong states that it is the fastest growing on-demand e-commerce company in China. Unprofitable with explosive growth, the company had a 10% share of the on-demand e-commerce market by GMV in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中国杂货配送平台<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚（开曼）有限公司</a></b>计划以60亿美元的市值筹集3.43亿美元。叮咚表示，以生鲜杂货为核心产品类别，是中国发展最快的按需电子商务公司。由于爆炸式增长，该公司在2020年按GMV计算的按需电子商务市场份额为10%。</blockquote></p><p> SaaS solutions provider&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVCM\">EverCommerce Inc.</a></b> plans to raise $325 million at a $3.4 billion market cap. EverCommerce is a leading provider of integrated, vertically-tailored SaaS solutions for service-based SMBs. The company serves over 500,000 customers across three core verticals: Home Services, Health Services, and Fitness &amp; Wellness Services.</p><p><blockquote>SaaS解决方案提供商<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVCM\">EverCommerce公司。</a></b>计划以34亿美元的市值筹集3.25亿美元。EverCommerce是为服务型中小型企业提供垂直定制的集成SaaS解决方案的领先提供商。该公司为三个核心垂直领域的超过500,000名客户提供服务：家庭服务、健康服务以及健身与健康服务。</blockquote></p><p> Software provider&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTA\">Intapp, Inc.</a> </b>plans to raise $278 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Intapp provides industry-specific, cloud-based software solutions for the professional and financial services industry globally. The company had over 1,600 clients as of March 31, 2021, and it currently has more than 20 clients with contracts greater than $1 million of ARR.</p><p><blockquote>软件供应商<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTA\">Intapp公司。</a></b>计划以19亿美元的市值筹集2.78亿美元。Intapp为全球专业和金融服务行业提供特定行业的基于云的软件解决方案。截至2021年3月31日，该公司拥有超过1,600名客户，目前有超过20名客户的合同ARR超过100万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Online manufacturing marketplace&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XMTR\">Xometry, Inc.</a></b> plans to raise $275 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Xometry states that it is a leading AI-enabled marketplace for on-demand manufacturing. Its buyers include businesses ranging from self-funded start-ups to Fortune 100 companies. Since its inception, over 6.0 million parts have been manufactured through Xometry's platform.</p><p><blockquote>在线制造市场<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XMTR\">Xometry公司。</a></b>计划以19亿美元的市值筹集2.75亿美元。Xometry表示，它是一个领先的人工智能按需制造市场。其买家包括从自筹资金的初创企业到财富100强公司的企业。自成立以来，已通过Xometry平台制造了超过600万个零件。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IAS\">Integral Ad Science Holding LLC</a> </b>plans to raise $240 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. The company’s technology provides metrics designed to verify that digital ads are served to a real person, viewable on-screen, and appear in a brand-safe and suitable environment in the correct geography. Profitable on an EBIT basis, Integral Ad Science served over 2,000 customers as of 3/31/21.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IAS\">积分广告科学控股有限责任公司</a></b>计划以25亿美元的市值筹集2.4亿美元。该公司的技术提供了旨在验证数字广告是否提供给真人、可在屏幕上查看、并出现在正确地理位置的品牌安全和合适的环境中的指标。截至2011年3月31日，Integral Ad Science在EBIT实现盈利，为2,000多名客户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Plus-sized women’s apparel brand&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CURV\">Torrid Holdings</a> </b>plans to raise $156 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Torrid is the largest direct-to-consumer brand of women's plus-size apparel and intimates in North America by net sales. The profitable company markets directly to consumers via physical stores and its e-commerce platform, which represented a majority of sales in the 12 months ended 5/1/21.</p><p><blockquote>大码女装品牌<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CURV\">托瑞德控股</a></b>计划以21亿美元的市值筹集1.56亿美元。按净销售额计算，Torrid是北美最大的直接面向消费者的女性大码服装和内衣品牌。这家盈利的公司通过实体店及其电子商务平台直接向消费者营销，这占截至2011年5月1日的12个月销售额的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Alzheimer’s biotech&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABOS\">Acumen Pharmaceuticals, Inc.</a></b> plans to raise $125 million at a $607 million market cap. The company's lead candidate, ACU193, is a humanized monoclonal antibody that selectively targets amyloid-beta oligomers. ACU193 entered a Phase 1 trial in patients with mild dementia or cognitive impairment due to AD in the 2Q21, with data expected by year end 2022.</p><p><blockquote>阿尔茨海默病生物技术<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABOS\">Acumen制药公司。</a></b>计划以6.07亿美元的市值筹集1.25亿美元。该公司的主要候选药物ACU193是一种选择性靶向β淀粉样蛋白寡聚体的人源化单克隆抗体。ACU193在2021年第二季度进入了针对轻度痴呆或AD导致认知障碍患者的1期试验，预计将于2022年底获得数据。</blockquote></p><p> Digital financial services provider&nbsp;<b>AMTD Digital</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">$(HKD)$</a>) plans to raise $120 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. AMTD Digital states that it is the \"fusion reactor\" at the core of the AMTD SpiderNet ecosystem, operating a comprehensive digital solutions platform in Asia. Profitable with explosive growth, the company primarily generates revenue from fees and commissions in two lines of business.</p><p><blockquote>数字金融服务提供商<b>尚乘数科</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">$(港币)$</a>）计划以14亿美元的市值筹集1.2亿美元。尚乘数科表示，它是尚乘蜘蛛网生态系统核心的“聚变反应堆”，在亚洲运营着全面的数字化解决方案平台。该公司利润呈爆炸式增长，主要通过两个业务线的费用和佣金产生收入。</blockquote></p><p> Drug formulation developer&nbsp;<b>Aerovate Therapeutics</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVTE\">$(AVTE)$</a>) plans to raise $100 million at a $325 million market cap. Aerovate's initial focus is on advancing AV-101, a dry powder inhaled formulation of imatinib for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The company has completed a Phase 1 study in healthy volunteers and expects to begin a Phase 2b/3 trial in PAH patients in the 2H21.</p><p><blockquote>药物制剂开发人员<b>Aerovate疗法</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVTE\">$(AVTE)$</a>）计划以3.25亿美元的市值筹集1亿美元。Aerovate最初的重点是推进AV-101，这是一种用于治疗肺动脉高压（PAH）的伊马替尼干粉吸入制剂。该公司已完成针对健康志愿者的1期研究，并预计将于2021年下半年开始针对PAH患者的2b/3期试验。</blockquote></p><p> Neuromodulation device provider<b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVRX\">CVRx Inc</a> </b>plans to raise $100 million at a $333 million market cap. CVRx manufactures and markets its minimally invasive neuromodulation solutions on its proprietary BAROSTIM platform. The company's states that its BAROSTEM NEO product is the first and only commercially available neuromodulation device indicated to improve symptoms for patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.</p><p><blockquote>神经调节设备提供商<b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVRX\">CVRx公司</a></b>计划以3.33亿美元的市值筹集1亿美元。CVRx在其专有的BAROSTIM平台上制造和销售其微创神经调节解决方案。该公司表示，其BAROSTEM NEO产品是第一款也是唯一一款可用于改善射血分数降低的心力衰竭患者症状的商用神经调节设备。</blockquote></p><p> Belgium-listed&nbsp;<b>Nyxoah</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYXH\">$(NYXH)$</a>) plans to raise $87 million at an $803 million market cap. Nyxoah's lead product is the Genio system, a CE-marked, minimally-invasive hypoglossal neurostimulation therapy for obstructive sleep apnea. The company began generating revenue from Genio in Europe in July 2020 and is currently conducting a pivotal trial designed to support marketing authorization in the US.</p><p><blockquote>比利时上市<b>尼克斯阿</b>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYXH\">$(NYXH)$</a>）计划以8.03亿美元的市值筹集8700万美元。Nyxoah的主导产品是Genio系统，这是一种通过CE认证的微创舌下神经刺激疗法，用于治疗阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停。该公司于2020年7月开始在欧洲从Genio产生收入，目前正在进行一项旨在支持美国营销授权的关键试验。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f28d5f7f3b8e686c0bd006c2968b99\" tg-width=\"1131\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/508f1118f1d92b2b76391bc3610bd6c4\" tg-width=\"1131\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed04cd42fa30b460fcf67e07efa6ddc7\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/24/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 2.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 13.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.5% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.3%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2011年6月24日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨2.7%，而标普500上涨13.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌1.5%，而ACWX指数上涨10.3%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括思摩尔国际和殷拓合伙人。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/83318/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-DiDi-makes-its-billion-dollar-debut-in-a-17-IPO-week\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CVRX":"CVRx, Inc.","XMTR":"Xometry, Inc.","YOU":"Clear Secure, Inc.","DNUT":"Krispy Kreme, Inc.","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","IAS":"Integral Ad Science Holding","EVCM":"EverCommerce Inc.","INTA":"Intapp, Inc.","HEPS":"D-MARKET Electronic Services & Trading","DDL":"叮咚买菜","CURV":"Torrid Holdings","ABOS":"Acumen Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","S":"SentinelOne, Inc","LZ":"LegalZoom.com, Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/83318/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-DiDi-makes-its-billion-dollar-debut-in-a-17-IPO-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150095060","content_text":"17 IPOs are slated to raise $9.1 billion in this week, led by long-awaited Chinese ride-hailing giant DiDi Global Inc..\nDiDi plans to raise $3.9 billion at a $67.5 billion market cap. DiDi is China’s dominant ride-hailing app, with 15 million drivers across 4,000 cities and towns. The unprofitable company saw revenue more than double in the 1Q21 as its business recovered post-pandemic.New and existing investors intend to purchase $1.3 billion of the IPO.\nCybersecurity platform SentinelOne, Inc plans to raise $880 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. SentinelOne's Singularity Platform is an AI-powered extended detection and response platform that ingests, correlates and queries petabytes of structured and unstructured data to provide autonomous cybersecurity defense. Fast growing and unprofitable, the company had over 4,700 customers as of 4/30/21, up from 2,700 a year prior.\nTurkish e-commerce platform D-MARKET Electronic Services & Trading(HEPS) plans to raise $681 million at a $3.9 billion market cap. Operating under the name Hepsiburada, the company connected 33 million members, 9 million Active Customers, and a base of approximately 45 thousand Active Merchants in 2020. The company is fast growing but EBITDA swung negative in the 1Q21.\nDoughnut brand Krispy Kreme, Inc. plans to raise $600 million at a $3.8 billion market cap. Krispy Kreme is an omni-channel business operating through a network of doughnut shops, partnerships with retailers, and an e-Commerce and delivery business. The company has a long track record and strong brand awareness, though its growth strategy is unproven.\nLegal solutions provider LegalZoom.com, Inc plans to raise $488 million at a $5.3 billion market cap. LegalZoom states that it is a leading online platform for legal and compliance solutions, claiming that 10% of new LLCs and 5% of new corporations in the US were formed via LegalZoom in 2020. Profitable on an EBITDA basis in the 1Q21, the company operates across all 50 states and over 3,000 counties in the US.\nIdentity verification platform Clear Secure, Inc. plans to raise $376 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. Clear Secure's secure identity platform uses to automate the identity verification process, with main offerings including CLEAR Plus, a consumer aviation subscription service, and two mobile apps. As of 5/31/21, Clear Secure's network included 38 airports, 26 sports and entertainment partners, and 67 Health Pass-enabled partners.\nChinese grocery delivery platform Dingdong (Cayman) Limited plans to raise $343 million at a $6.0 billion market cap. With fresh groceries as its core product categories, Dingdong states that it is the fastest growing on-demand e-commerce company in China. Unprofitable with explosive growth, the company had a 10% share of the on-demand e-commerce market by GMV in 2020.\nSaaS solutions provider EverCommerce Inc. plans to raise $325 million at a $3.4 billion market cap. EverCommerce is a leading provider of integrated, vertically-tailored SaaS solutions for service-based SMBs. The company serves over 500,000 customers across three core verticals: Home Services, Health Services, and Fitness & Wellness Services.\nSoftware provider Intapp, Inc. plans to raise $278 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Intapp provides industry-specific, cloud-based software solutions for the professional and financial services industry globally. The company had over 1,600 clients as of March 31, 2021, and it currently has more than 20 clients with contracts greater than $1 million of ARR.\nOnline manufacturing marketplace Xometry, Inc. plans to raise $275 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Xometry states that it is a leading AI-enabled marketplace for on-demand manufacturing. Its buyers include businesses ranging from self-funded start-ups to Fortune 100 companies. Since its inception, over 6.0 million parts have been manufactured through Xometry's platform.\nIntegral Ad Science Holding LLC plans to raise $240 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. The company’s technology provides metrics designed to verify that digital ads are served to a real person, viewable on-screen, and appear in a brand-safe and suitable environment in the correct geography. Profitable on an EBIT basis, Integral Ad Science served over 2,000 customers as of 3/31/21.\nPlus-sized women’s apparel brand Torrid Holdings plans to raise $156 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Torrid is the largest direct-to-consumer brand of women's plus-size apparel and intimates in North America by net sales. The profitable company markets directly to consumers via physical stores and its e-commerce platform, which represented a majority of sales in the 12 months ended 5/1/21.\nAlzheimer’s biotech Acumen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. plans to raise $125 million at a $607 million market cap. The company's lead candidate, ACU193, is a humanized monoclonal antibody that selectively targets amyloid-beta oligomers. ACU193 entered a Phase 1 trial in patients with mild dementia or cognitive impairment due to AD in the 2Q21, with data expected by year end 2022.\nDigital financial services provider AMTD Digital($(HKD)$) plans to raise $120 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. AMTD Digital states that it is the \"fusion reactor\" at the core of the AMTD SpiderNet ecosystem, operating a comprehensive digital solutions platform in Asia. Profitable with explosive growth, the company primarily generates revenue from fees and commissions in two lines of business.\nDrug formulation developer Aerovate Therapeutics($(AVTE)$) plans to raise $100 million at a $325 million market cap. Aerovate's initial focus is on advancing AV-101, a dry powder inhaled formulation of imatinib for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The company has completed a Phase 1 study in healthy volunteers and expects to begin a Phase 2b/3 trial in PAH patients in the 2H21.\nNeuromodulation device provider CVRx Inc plans to raise $100 million at a $333 million market cap. CVRx manufactures and markets its minimally invasive neuromodulation solutions on its proprietary BAROSTIM platform. The company's states that its BAROSTEM NEO product is the first and only commercially available neuromodulation device indicated to improve symptoms for patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.\nBelgium-listed Nyxoah($(NYXH)$) plans to raise $87 million at an $803 million market cap. Nyxoah's lead product is the Genio system, a CE-marked, minimally-invasive hypoglossal neurostimulation therapy for obstructive sleep apnea. The company began generating revenue from Genio in Europe in July 2020 and is currently conducting a pivotal trial designed to support marketing authorization in the US.\n\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/24/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 2.7% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 13.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.5% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.3%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DNUT":0.9,"EVCM":0.9,"HKIB":0.9,"XMTR":0.9,"HEPS":0.9,"ABOS":0.9,"S":0.9,"IAS":0.9,"INTA":0.9,"YOU":0.9,"CVRX":0.9,"LZ":0.9,"DIDI":0.9,"CURV":0.9,"DDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124428318,"gmtCreate":1624782885634,"gmtModify":1631888254896,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy!","listText":"Buy!","text":"Buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124428318","repostId":"2146079086","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124421407,"gmtCreate":1624782866909,"gmtModify":1631888254905,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ouch","listText":"Ouch","text":"Ouch","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124421407","repostId":"2146500392","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124421622,"gmtCreate":1624782845366,"gmtModify":1631888254929,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124421622","repostId":"1162379867","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124421980,"gmtCreate":1624782825940,"gmtModify":1631890272667,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Netflix.. everyone love this","listText":"Netflix.. everyone love this","text":"Netflix.. everyone love this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124421980","repostId":"2146026425","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124423200,"gmtCreate":1624782758200,"gmtModify":1631890272679,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124423200","repostId":"2146070550","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124423635,"gmtCreate":1624782746127,"gmtModify":1631890272675,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy if go lower&nbsp;","listText":"Buy if go lower&nbsp;","text":"Buy if go lower","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124423635","repostId":"1117734317","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117734317","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624759414,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117734317?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117734317","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong re","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li>  <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li>  <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li>  <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li>  <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从表面上看，Square似乎是一家成长中的公司，也是一项不错的投资，收入增长强劲，Cash App用户群庞大。</li><li>事实上，该公司一直在努力将其营收转化为净利润。</li><li>这导致Square扩大其产品，以证明夸大的收入估值是合理的，而这可能永远不会带来有意义的盈利增长。</li><li>虽然乍一看，它的现金应用程序故事似乎是一个崭露头角的前景，但它可能只不过是基于必要性的暂时增长。</li><li>鉴于目前的估值和不断增加的比特币阻力，Square可能面临收入和盈利的大幅下调。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the&nbsp;most popular stocks&nbsp;among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p><p><blockquote>Square Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）是最受散户交易者和投资者欢迎的股票之一，在Robinhood的100强排名中排名第57位。这导致SQ的价格比去年上涨了135%，市值超过1000亿美元，交易波动性相当于中型公司。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a&nbsp;banking license&nbsp;via Square Financial Services.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，价格和估值似乎是合理的，该公司通过Cash App、比特币（BTC-USD）、PPP贷款不断增加收入并扩大其产品组合，最近还通过Square Financial Services获得银行牌照。</blockquote></p><p> However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于对未来收入预测的猜测，这些估值正与公司及其核心业务的基本面脱钩，而未来收入预测严重依赖于比特币收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自SQ Investor Relations（2021年第一季度历史财务信息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，SQ还可能面临与小企业定位相关的其他几个问题；政策和法规；以及一般宏观经济因素，这些因素可能会产生不利因素，影响其估值并给投资者带来不对称的下行风险，我将在下面进行推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家支付处理和商业工具提供商，促进企业/卖家和个人之间的交易，并为他们提供硬件、在线基础设施和分析。此外，它还通过现金应用程序为个人提供服务，该应用程序似乎呈指数级增长，允许用户发送、接收、持有和投资资金，最近还有比特币。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信-现金App流入与毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of March 2020, the&nbsp;company has received a Banking License&nbsp;from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月，该公司已获得联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）的银行牌照，可以向使用SQ进行支付处理的零售商发放商业贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于所有这些积极消息，根据未来增长预测，该股在过去3年中上涨了330%以上，并且自2020年以来一直追逐收入预期也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p><p><blockquote>这在新冠疫情期间很常见，因为未知的水域意味着营收增长对于生存至关重要。此外，美联储似乎无休止的印钞，加上零利率，意味着资金流入显示出最高增长潜力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（2021年SQ与EPS预估和收入预估）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在2021年第一季度，随着印刷放缓，收益率开始上升，联邦对个人的转移支付消失，因此不断增加的收入预期对市场的意义开始减弱，导致SQ价格走势在200美元至280美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（年初至今SQ价格）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Quantitative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数量的</b></blockquote></p><p> Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，SQ相对于支付处理行业表现良好，为股东带来了约12%的价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector &gt;$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（SQ与支付处理行业今年迄今&gt;500亿美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>当根据远期收益和收入对这些公司进行评估时，也就不足为奇了。SQ 2021年和2022年的盈利增长高于平均水平和中位数，2021年的收入增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，行业比较（支付处理商）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然与同行相比，SQ的远期市盈率似乎被夸大了，但其远期市盈率相对较小，低于行业平均水平和中位数，这或许证明了其现值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一旦你将比特币收入从等式中剔除，你就会得到对收入增长低得多的预期PS估计，而收入增长代表了SQ的主要业务。</blockquote></p><p> For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在这个等式中，我从2021年第一季度的业绩中删除了比特币的收入，并根据分析师的平均预期判断，该预期显示2021年第二季度至第四季度的收入几乎没有环比增长，将该数字乘以4倍，得出年终收入估计为61.407亿美元。前几年，我已将比特币从收入中删除。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ收入增长（2018年至2021年比特币与不包括比特币的预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ与行业比较（收入预测不包括比特币）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，这描绘了该公司截然不同的图景，虽然收入增长仍略高于市盈率也很高的公司，但盈利估值突然看起来更有意义，并且很难证明远期市盈率高于平均水平3倍是合理的，比中位数高4.5倍。尤其是当美国运通公司(AXP)、万事达卡公司(MA)、PayPal控股公司(PYPL)和Visa Inc(V)等公司的每股收益平均高出4倍时。其中大多数支付股息，并具有类似的增长预期，但波动风险较小。</blockquote></p><p> Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which&nbsp;Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p><p><blockquote>许多人会认为“这并不重要，因为BTC现在是他们收入指标的一部分，也就是说，除了交易量之外，才是重要的”。然而，我想举2018年比特币抛售的例子，比特币下跌了70%，交易量也从高点下跌了约75%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Bitcoinvisuals.com（2018年比特币市场交易量）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，如果比特币因全球监管力度加大而继续回调，这将给投资者带来巨大的下行风险，因为该公司本质上是根据比特币支持的收入指标进行交易的。很简单，比特币的价格下跌可能意味着收入预期的下调，从而导致SQ价格的高度波动回撤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（SQ价格相关性-收入、EPS和EBITDA）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股与同行相比的历史波动性，这种情况变得越来越有可能，而且它也成为共识空头头寸也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者（SQ与行业比较隐含波动率和已实现波动率以及空头利息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend&nbsp;in which the author suggests that&nbsp;SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in&nbsp;I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于另一位Seeking Alpha撰稿人的分析，我不得不同意作者认为SQ 2025年增长的价值趋势基本上已被定价。SQ对收入预测的依赖被比特币大幅放大，给投资者带来了中短期内不对称的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macro</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宏观的</b></blockquote></p><p> Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们正处于重新开放的过程中，但许多事情仍然不确定，如需求可持续性、就业增长和创造以及通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p><p><blockquote>虽然媒体的情绪总体上是积极的，但在我们得出结论认为我们是清白的之前，有几个宏观经济问题需要解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Environment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业环境</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p><p><blockquote>SQ的MRQ显示，近49%的毛利润来自卖家生态系统（小企业）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度10Q第39页-细分毛利）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with &lt;$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>其中大部分来自支付总额低于500,000美元的卖家（69.5%）。这使得square很大程度上受到小企业周期波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p><p><blockquote>深入研究业务形成统计数据，有一个乐观的画面，2021年5月超过500,000个业务应用程序为SQ提供了无尽的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Census.gov（商业应用，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p><p><blockquote>同样，当我们深入挖掘并查看排名成熟小企业乐观情绪的统计数据时，情况开始扭曲，开始看起来像是进入2008年的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势-乐观，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当我们考察小企业未来的扩张前景时，这也降至低点，与2008年类似。这可能表明SQ毛利率的主要组成部分可能不会以2017年至2020年期间的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势-展望，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，应该指出的是，小企业给出负面前景的两个主要原因是“经济状况”和“政治气候”，这可能与2020年的选举、COVID、最近的政策变化有关，并且在某种程度上是暂时的。或者，它可能类似于2008年至2016年的缓慢三月，我们只是不知道，除了它是一个较低的读数，因此可能会影响SQ的高收入和盈利增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势-展望原因，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Lending</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业贷款</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the&nbsp;PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，SQ显然旨在通过获得银行牌照来巩固其在商业贷款领域的地位。这对该公司来说非常积极，因为他们庞大且不断增长的小型企业用户群、他们自2014年以来的经验以及于2021年5月31日停止的PPP计划。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p><p><blockquote>目前，由于COVID的复苏努力，银行贷款已经减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（美国商业银行-商业和工业贷款）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the&nbsp;monthly NFIB report. Although, an&nbsp;American Banker survey&nbsp;is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过NFIB月度报告中的信用状况指数来验证。尽管如此，美国银行家的一项调查报告称，86%的小企业发现很难获得信贷，不得不求助于个人信贷。</blockquote></p><p> This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of&nbsp;capital restraints&nbsp;placed on Wells Fargo &amp; Company (WFC).</p><p><blockquote>这对SQ来说是积极的，因为这将使他们能够填补市场上小企业的信贷缺口。尽管我认为这将是短暂的，因为有人猜测，当美联储缩减规模时，他们还将宣布取消对富国银行（WFC）的资本限制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：瑞士信贷（Global Money Dispatch–2021年5月25日）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had&nbsp;lifted these restraints&nbsp;to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美联储在2020年初取消了这些限制，以通过PPP计划帮助小企业，而且缩减购债规模有扰乱市场的历史，这种情况发生的可能性相当大。如果发生这种情况，我怀疑WFC将再次成为小企业信贷领域的巨头，并由于其在该领域广泛的网络和历史而成为SQ非常强劲的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin, Legislation &amp; Gensler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币、立法和詹斯勒</b></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor&nbsp;banks&nbsp;have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the&nbsp;purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p><p><blockquote>比特币在2020年下半年和2021年上半年的大部分时间里一直是头条新闻，这是有充分理由的。它在散户交易者和投资者中越来越受欢迎，并表现出非凡的赞赏。此外，一些小型银行对这种媒介很感兴趣，尽管许多银行和金融机构已经明确禁止使用其服务购买比特币。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as&nbsp;money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p><p><blockquote>他们反对的主要原因很可能与非法活动有关，如洗钱、恐怖主义、虚假交易量以及我不想参与的类似活动，银行也不想参与。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China&nbsp;and&nbsp;India.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在最近的炒作中，许多国家现在正在介入监管比特币的使用，但其他国家更进一步，正在颁布立法禁止其使用和开采，最明显的是中印两国。</blockquote></p><p> This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p><p><blockquote>自2021年5月ATHs约65,000美元以来，这对比特币的价格产生了负面影响，此后回撤了-46%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with&nbsp;Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p><p><blockquote>这对比特币的未来也是极其不利的，因为比特币的大部分挖矿都是在中国完成的（年初至今约70%），挖矿的算力与价格相关。因此，如果这些因素因中国采矿活动减少而消退，价格肯定会随之上涨，从而影响SQ的比特币持有量和未来交易量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：剑桥大学（剑桥比特币电力消费指数年初至今）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst the SEC has come out and said that&nbsp;Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has&nbsp;warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to&nbsp;2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>虽然SEC已经站出来表示，比特币监管不在他们2021年的议程上，但Gary Gensler警告投资者要谨慎。Gensler在保护投资者的监管方面也有着悠久的历史，尽管没有将比特币列入2021年的议程，但我建议读者研究他在2000年和2008年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p><p><blockquote>进一步看，总体而言，这对比特币和SQ来说并不是一个好兆头。很可能会有进一步的监管而不是采用，从而对其价格产生负面影响，导致2018年产量和采矿活动的下降重演。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体经济——零售业的担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout&nbsp;2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p><p><blockquote>另外，我们也可能会看到零售业未来的负面形势。零售业的复苏在很大程度上不是由“被压抑的需求”推动的，而是主要通过2020年和2021年初发放的补贴。当检查下图时，我们可以看到，一旦你减去转移收入（政府刺激支票和就业福利——红线），收入就不再是以前的样子了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行（可支配收入vs实际收入减去转账vs个人储蓄vs零售贸易销售）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们可以看到，零售额（紫色）的飙升主要是由刺激支票推动的，刺激支票增加了可支配收入（蓝色）和消费者储蓄（绿色），尽管现在刺激已经结束，人们不得不开始挖掘他们的储蓄，3月至4月期间环比下降了54%。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is&nbsp;considered to be the most revealing&nbsp;amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>在检查U6失业率时，消费者支出情况变得更糟，U6失业率被认为是经济学家中最能揭示问题的，因为它包括失业、未充分就业和灰心丧气的求职者。一般来说，这对未来消费者可自由支配支出模式来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Macrotrends.net（U6失业率vs U5 vs官方）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p><p><blockquote>最后，食品和能源成本的上涨（我预计食品成本将持续上涨）应该会阻碍消费者未来的可自由支配支出。我以前写过关于马赛克公司（MOS）和安德森公司（ANDE）的文章，概述了我对这一趋势的理由。</blockquote></p><p> In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，我们可以根据2019年底的数据查看他们对消费者可自由支配支出的历史敞口。当考虑到以下数据时：零售；专业服务、美容及个护、家居及维修、休闲娱乐及休闲使用，总曝光量约为59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista（Raynor de Best–卖家行业GPV，2019年12月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p><p><blockquote>虽然由于比特币的权重，这可能不会对其收入数据产生重大影响，但我确实预计这将削弱未来的毛利润数据，并随着刺激措施进一步消退对利润率产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p><p><blockquote>在检查SQ的财务状况时，我们可以很容易地看到，比特币是推动其收入增长的主要因素（MRQ占总收入的69%），其估值也由此得出（参见上面的介绍部分-SQ价格与收入部分；和定量部分-SQ价格相关性）。</blockquote></p><p> From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年第一季度股东信第12页中，他们表示，截至2021年3月31日，他们所持股份的公允价值为4.72亿美元。这一天的收盘价为58,918.83美元，约合8,011个比特币。他们还表示，在此期间和第四季度，他们最初向比特币投资了2亿美元，因此他们的平均价格约为每个比特币25,000美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p><p><blockquote>目前，比特币的价格约为34,600美元，它似乎也很难找到吸引力，尤其是当你研究其他一些趋势时。例如，看看谷歌趋势上“购买比特币”的搜索趋势，这显然正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词-全球5年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当你将这些数据与刺激支付联系起来时，很明显这两者在2020年下半年存在关系，最近的大部分猜测可能是由政府补贴驱动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USA.Gov（新冠刺激支票日期）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>搜索量的激增大约发生在后两次政府刺激支票的时间，有几天到几周的滞后。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词-美国12个月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这也与比特币在2020年12月和2021年1月的价格上涨以及2021年3月和4月的失败反弹相吻合。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（比特币价格1年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在这个例子中，如果我们持续抛售-70%，这与2018年发生的情况类似。我们将回到2020年11月比特币价格约为20,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在数量减少、进一步立法和哈希率下降的基础上，这仍然是可行的。从理论上讲，SQ可能会产生4000万美元的减值费用，这将极大地影响营业收入、净利润和股东收益以及未来预期。尽管这纯粹是理论上的，没有考虑当前季度的交易，例如在ATH或附近的购买或销售。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于未来缺乏刺激付款以及消费者可自由支配支出收紧，随着进入该领域的资金减少和销量下降，比特币产生的收入也可能下降。对SQ的收入估计以及随后的价格和估值产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash App</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金应用程序</b></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，Cash App正在呈指数级增长，成为用户交易的可行平台，每月交易活跃客户超过3600万，同比增长50%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cash App的这种增长未来可能是不可持续的，SQ在其季度备案说明中详细阐述了这一点：</blockquote></p><p>   Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from&nbsp;  <b>government relief programs</b>&nbsp;most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i>  Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>Cash App收入受益于Cash App活跃客户数量的增长以及<b>政府救济计划</b>最近于2020年12月下旬和2021年3月通过成为法律，以及2020年通过的早期刺激计划的累积收益。这些计划提供了额外的刺激救济和失业福利，导致消费者支出和流入我们的Cash App生态系统的资金增加。Cash App的收入增长在未来几个季度可能无法维持在相同水平，并且可能会受到进一步刺激救济和福利计划的颁布以及比特币的需求和市场价格等因素的影响。<i>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度10Q文件–第49页）</i>Cash App的部分问题是理论上的持续使用和未来的采用。去年的大部分增长主要是由通过Cash App生态系统进行的刺激支付推动的，因此在这种情况下是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p><p><blockquote>该应用程序的搜索量出现了两次急剧上升：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>April 12-18 2020</li>  <li>January 24-30 2021</li> </ul> These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2020年4月12日至18日</li><li>2021年1月24日至30日</li></ul>这些与刺激付款相吻合，因为他们最初发送这些款项，并逐渐将其存入人们的账户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（现金应用搜索词-美国5年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>因此，随着政府刺激付款结束，比特币再次失去相关性，越来越多的人重返工作岗位，日间交易减少，这可能会对未来的用户增长指标产生负面影响，影响SQ的收入估计、毛利润数据及其收益。</blockquote></p><p> Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有许多其他更可行的平台，另一位Seeking Alpha撰稿人The Value Trend在这里详细介绍了这些平台。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要记住他们如何定义这些用户，“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”如下：</blockquote></p><p>   ... has at least  <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i>  So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p><p><blockquote>...至少有<b>一笔金融交易</b>在指定期间内使用Cash App内的任何产品或服务。<i>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信-第4页）</i>因此，如果客户每月一次从雇主那里收到工资或失业救济金，并每月一次将所有工资转入他们的银行账户，那么他们就是“交易活跃现金应用客户”...</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p><p><blockquote>也许一个“活跃”客户的更好的量词是大于5笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p><p><blockquote>检查SQ的技术面，很明显该股目前在200美元至280美元之间波动，在250美元处有几次突破尝试，在300美元附近有两次失败的尝试，显示出几个迹象表明势头正在消失。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自FINVIZ（SQ图表）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在检查暗池订单流时，由于暗池处于低点，当前的反弹有可能继续，这可能会持续到8月份的收益中。尽管我不会抱太大希望，除非出现一些严重的好消息，比特币反弹回ATHs。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Squeezemetrics.com（SQ暗池与隐含Vol 2年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>从13F备案中也可以看到，不少基金降低了敞口并平仓，新增仓位较少。看跌期权与看涨期权的比率也变得相当高，尤其是在市值为1000亿美元的股票上，这表明我们并不是唯一有同样想法的人。</blockquote></p><p> Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p><p><blockquote>但需要谨慎，因为SQ与比特币的问题显然正在成为共识交易，当这些看跌期权被取消时，伽马可能会转为正值，并可能导致该股大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Whalewisdom.com（SQ基金定位）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been&nbsp;significant liquidity issues&nbsp;the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，就ARK ETF而言，过去6个月出现重大流动性问题也就不足为奇了，我同意另一位Seeking Alpha撰稿人的论点，即我们将看到这些ETF中持有的股票价格回归均值。值得注意的是，Cathie已经显著减少了她对SQ的接触，她可能正在选择她的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Cathiesark.com（持有SQ股票-所有ETF）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于上述信息，这是一家很难做空的公司。它要么会带来巨大的回报，要么会因为它的波动性而撕碎你的脸。此外，许多基金希望对财务报表上有比特币的公司进行少量投资。因此，如果您要自担风险将其作为空头进行交易，建议谨慎行事，并且您应该始终选择战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p><p><blockquote>根据SQ ATR的波动性，SQ有可能在今年年底前跌至约100美元的低点，40%的情况下走势有利。如果你把比特币完全从等式中剔除，这与我的2021年底价格一致。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者（SQ ATR计算器）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这样做是不明智的，因为这是他们目前收入的一部分，无论2021年初比特币的销量有多高，年底可能有多低。</blockquote></p><p> I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p><p><blockquote>我确实预计该股将再次下跌并重新测试200美元，可能跌破160美元。尽管很难确定SQ的估值，主要是因为估值来自比特币收入，以及基金和市场在未来采用该资产时的感知价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p><p><blockquote>如果市场再次开始认为比特币无关紧要，我预计SQ将慢慢抛售至150美元至160美元之间（下跌-37%），反弹超过300美元（上涨25%）的可能性很低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，应注意以下风险。</blockquote></p><p> The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p><p><blockquote>不管你喜不喜欢SQ，公司都在成长。主要问题是：市场会在任何现实基础上对比特币进行估值吗？不管有没有比特币，它增长了多少？无论有没有比特币，未来的潜在增长是多少？市场相信吗，或者就此而言在乎吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币失去相关性，从谷歌趋势来看，这种可能性更大，那么假设SQ将因此在2021年下半年遭受损失并对收入预期造成重大打击并不奇怪。然而，如果比特币的采用率增加并且负面消息消退，由于这是一家成长型公司，它可能会继续上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p><p><blockquote>此外，消费者支出模式正在产生混合数据，上面我提出了一个熊市案例。如果人们的行为发生变化，例如申请将增加经济支出的工作，并有望产生小企业增长，增加小企业的乐观情绪和扩张，这对于SQ作为支付处理领域的周期性企业非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>同样，谨慎是必要的，尽管我确实认为公司未来的增长已被定价，SQ持有者面临的下行风险高于上行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家高增长公司，从长远来看具有一些潜在的积极点；然而，其估值非常值得怀疑，因为其高收入预期主要来自比特币交易，而不是盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>从定量角度来看，它在同行中看起来不错，但经过进一步检查，它似乎被严重高估，因为未来的增长（至少2021年）可能来自比特币。此外，如果没有政府的持续刺激，其Cash App采用统计数据可能不会继续看到相同的运行率。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，它还面临着一些潜在的宏观经济障碍，包括小企业风险、贷款竞争对手、消费者交易竞争对手、比特币立法和零售需求疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li>  <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li>  <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li>  <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li>  <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从表面上看，Square似乎是一家成长中的公司，也是一项不错的投资，收入增长强劲，Cash App用户群庞大。</li><li>事实上，该公司一直在努力将其营收转化为净利润。</li><li>这导致Square扩大其产品，以证明夸大的收入估值是合理的，而这可能永远不会带来有意义的盈利增长。</li><li>虽然乍一看，它的现金应用程序故事似乎是一个崭露头角的前景，但它可能只不过是基于必要性的暂时增长。</li><li>鉴于目前的估值和不断增加的比特币阻力，Square可能面临收入和盈利的大幅下调。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the&nbsp;most popular stocks&nbsp;among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p><p><blockquote>Square Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）是最受散户交易者和投资者欢迎的股票之一，在Robinhood的100强排名中排名第57位。这导致SQ的价格比去年上涨了135%，市值超过1000亿美元，交易波动性相当于中型公司。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a&nbsp;banking license&nbsp;via Square Financial Services.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，价格和估值似乎是合理的，该公司通过Cash App、比特币（BTC-USD）、PPP贷款不断增加收入并扩大其产品组合，最近还通过Square Financial Services获得银行牌照。</blockquote></p><p> However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于对未来收入预测的猜测，这些估值正与公司及其核心业务的基本面脱钩，而未来收入预测严重依赖于比特币收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自SQ Investor Relations（2021年第一季度历史财务信息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，SQ还可能面临与小企业定位相关的其他几个问题；政策和法规；以及一般宏观经济因素，这些因素可能会产生不利因素，影响其估值并给投资者带来不对称的下行风险，我将在下面进行推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家支付处理和商业工具提供商，促进企业/卖家和个人之间的交易，并为他们提供硬件、在线基础设施和分析。此外，它还通过现金应用程序为个人提供服务，该应用程序似乎呈指数级增长，允许用户发送、接收、持有和投资资金，最近还有比特币。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信-现金App流入与毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of March 2020, the&nbsp;company has received a Banking License&nbsp;from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月，该公司已获得联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）的银行牌照，可以向使用SQ进行支付处理的零售商发放商业贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于所有这些积极消息，根据未来增长预测，该股在过去3年中上涨了330%以上，并且自2020年以来一直追逐收入预期也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p><p><blockquote>这在新冠疫情期间很常见，因为未知的水域意味着营收增长对于生存至关重要。此外，美联储似乎无休止的印钞，加上零利率，意味着资金流入显示出最高增长潜力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（2021年SQ与EPS预估和收入预估）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在2021年第一季度，随着印刷放缓，收益率开始上升，联邦对个人的转移支付消失，因此不断增加的收入预期对市场的意义开始减弱，导致SQ价格走势在200美元至280美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（年初至今SQ价格）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Quantitative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数量的</b></blockquote></p><p> Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，SQ相对于支付处理行业表现良好，为股东带来了约12%的价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector &gt;$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（SQ与支付处理行业今年迄今&gt;500亿美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>当根据远期收益和收入对这些公司进行评估时，也就不足为奇了。SQ 2021年和2022年的盈利增长高于平均水平和中位数，2021年的收入增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，行业比较（支付处理商）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然与同行相比，SQ的远期市盈率似乎被夸大了，但其远期市盈率相对较小，低于行业平均水平和中位数，这或许证明了其现值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一旦你将比特币收入从等式中剔除，你就会得到对收入增长低得多的预期PS估计，而收入增长代表了SQ的主要业务。</blockquote></p><p> For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在这个等式中，我从2021年第一季度的业绩中删除了比特币的收入，并根据分析师的平均预期判断，该预期显示2021年第二季度至第四季度的收入几乎没有环比增长，将该数字乘以4倍，得出年终收入估计为61.407亿美元。前几年，我已将比特币从收入中删除。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ收入增长（2018年至2021年比特币与不包括比特币的预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ与行业比较（收入预测不包括比特币）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，这描绘了该公司截然不同的图景，虽然收入增长仍略高于市盈率也很高的公司，但盈利估值突然看起来更有意义，并且很难证明远期市盈率高于平均水平3倍是合理的，比中位数高4.5倍。尤其是当美国运通公司(AXP)、万事达卡公司(MA)、PayPal控股公司(PYPL)和Visa Inc(V)等公司的每股收益平均高出4倍时。其中大多数支付股息，并具有类似的增长预期，但波动风险较小。</blockquote></p><p> Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which&nbsp;Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p><p><blockquote>许多人会认为“这并不重要，因为BTC现在是他们收入指标的一部分，也就是说，除了交易量之外，才是重要的”。然而，我想举2018年比特币抛售的例子，比特币下跌了70%，交易量也从高点下跌了约75%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Bitcoinvisuals.com（2018年比特币市场交易量）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，如果比特币因全球监管力度加大而继续回调，这将给投资者带来巨大的下行风险，因为该公司本质上是根据比特币支持的收入指标进行交易的。很简单，比特币的价格下跌可能意味着收入预期的下调，从而导致SQ价格的高度波动回撤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用YCHARTS的数据（SQ价格相关性-收入、EPS和EBITDA）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股与同行相比的历史波动性，这种情况变得越来越有可能，而且它也成为共识空头头寸也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者（SQ与行业比较隐含波动率和已实现波动率以及空头利息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend&nbsp;in which the author suggests that&nbsp;SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in&nbsp;I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于另一位Seeking Alpha撰稿人的分析，我不得不同意作者认为SQ 2025年增长的价值趋势基本上已被定价。SQ对收入预测的依赖被比特币大幅放大，给投资者带来了中短期内不对称的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macro</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宏观的</b></blockquote></p><p> Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们正处于重新开放的过程中，但许多事情仍然不确定，如需求可持续性、就业增长和创造以及通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p><p><blockquote>虽然媒体的情绪总体上是积极的，但在我们得出结论认为我们是清白的之前，有几个宏观经济问题需要解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Environment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业环境</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p><p><blockquote>SQ的MRQ显示，近49%的毛利润来自卖家生态系统（小企业）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度10Q第39页-细分毛利）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with &lt;$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>其中大部分来自支付总额低于500,000美元的卖家（69.5%）。这使得square很大程度上受到小企业周期波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p><p><blockquote>深入研究业务形成统计数据，有一个乐观的画面，2021年5月超过500,000个业务应用程序为SQ提供了无尽的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Census.gov（商业应用，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p><p><blockquote>同样，当我们深入挖掘并查看排名成熟小企业乐观情绪的统计数据时，情况开始扭曲，开始看起来像是进入2008年的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势-乐观，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当我们考察小企业未来的扩张前景时，这也降至低点，与2008年类似。这可能表明SQ毛利率的主要组成部分可能不会以2017年至2020年期间的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势-展望，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，应该指出的是，小企业给出负面前景的两个主要原因是“经济状况”和“政治气候”，这可能与2020年的选举、COVID、最近的政策变化有关，并且在某种程度上是暂时的。或者，它可能类似于2008年至2016年的缓慢三月，我们只是不知道，除了它是一个较低的读数，因此可能会影响SQ的高收入和盈利增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势-展望原因，2021年5月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Lending</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业贷款</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the&nbsp;PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，SQ显然旨在通过获得银行牌照来巩固其在商业贷款领域的地位。这对该公司来说非常积极，因为他们庞大且不断增长的小型企业用户群、他们自2014年以来的经验以及于2021年5月31日停止的PPP计划。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p><p><blockquote>目前，由于COVID的复苏努力，银行贷款已经减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（美国商业银行-商业和工业贷款）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the&nbsp;monthly NFIB report. Although, an&nbsp;American Banker survey&nbsp;is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过NFIB月度报告中的信用状况指数来验证。尽管如此，美国银行家的一项调查报告称，86%的小企业发现很难获得信贷，不得不求助于个人信贷。</blockquote></p><p> This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of&nbsp;capital restraints&nbsp;placed on Wells Fargo &amp; Company (WFC).</p><p><blockquote>这对SQ来说是积极的，因为这将使他们能够填补市场上小企业的信贷缺口。尽管我认为这将是短暂的，因为有人猜测，当美联储缩减规模时，他们还将宣布取消对富国银行（WFC）的资本限制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：瑞士信贷（Global Money Dispatch–2021年5月25日）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had&nbsp;lifted these restraints&nbsp;to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美联储在2020年初取消了这些限制，以通过PPP计划帮助小企业，而且缩减购债规模有扰乱市场的历史，这种情况发生的可能性相当大。如果发生这种情况，我怀疑WFC将再次成为小企业信贷领域的巨头，并由于其在该领域广泛的网络和历史而成为SQ非常强劲的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin, Legislation &amp; Gensler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币、立法和詹斯勒</b></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor&nbsp;banks&nbsp;have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the&nbsp;purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p><p><blockquote>比特币在2020年下半年和2021年上半年的大部分时间里一直是头条新闻，这是有充分理由的。它在散户交易者和投资者中越来越受欢迎，并表现出非凡的赞赏。此外，一些小型银行对这种媒介很感兴趣，尽管许多银行和金融机构已经明确禁止使用其服务购买比特币。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as&nbsp;money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p><p><blockquote>他们反对的主要原因很可能与非法活动有关，如洗钱、恐怖主义、虚假交易量以及我不想参与的类似活动，银行也不想参与。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China&nbsp;and&nbsp;India.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在最近的炒作中，许多国家现在正在介入监管比特币的使用，但其他国家更进一步，正在颁布立法禁止其使用和开采，最明显的是中印两国。</blockquote></p><p> This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p><p><blockquote>自2021年5月ATHs约65,000美元以来，这对比特币的价格产生了负面影响，此后回撤了-46%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with&nbsp;Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p><p><blockquote>这对比特币的未来也是极其不利的，因为比特币的大部分挖矿都是在中国完成的（年初至今约70%），挖矿的算力与价格相关。因此，如果这些因素因中国采矿活动减少而消退，价格肯定会随之上涨，从而影响SQ的比特币持有量和未来交易量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：剑桥大学（剑桥比特币电力消费指数年初至今）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst the SEC has come out and said that&nbsp;Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has&nbsp;warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to&nbsp;2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>虽然SEC已经站出来表示，比特币监管不在他们2021年的议程上，但Gary Gensler警告投资者要谨慎。Gensler在保护投资者的监管方面也有着悠久的历史，尽管没有将比特币列入2021年的议程，但我建议读者研究他在2000年和2008年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p><p><blockquote>进一步看，总体而言，这对比特币和SQ来说并不是一个好兆头。很可能会有进一步的监管而不是采用，从而对其价格产生负面影响，导致2018年产量和采矿活动的下降重演。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体经济——零售业的担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout&nbsp;2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p><p><blockquote>另外，我们也可能会看到零售业未来的负面形势。零售业的复苏在很大程度上不是由“被压抑的需求”推动的，而是主要通过2020年和2021年初发放的补贴。当检查下图时，我们可以看到，一旦你减去转移收入（政府刺激支票和就业福利——红线），收入就不再是以前的样子了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行（可支配收入vs实际收入减去转账vs个人储蓄vs零售贸易销售）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们可以看到，零售额（紫色）的飙升主要是由刺激支票推动的，刺激支票增加了可支配收入（蓝色）和消费者储蓄（绿色），尽管现在刺激已经结束，人们不得不开始挖掘他们的储蓄，3月至4月期间环比下降了54%。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is&nbsp;considered to be the most revealing&nbsp;amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>在检查U6失业率时，消费者支出情况变得更糟，U6失业率被认为是经济学家中最能揭示问题的，因为它包括失业、未充分就业和灰心丧气的求职者。一般来说，这对未来消费者可自由支配支出模式来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Macrotrends.net（U6失业率vs U5 vs官方）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p><p><blockquote>最后，食品和能源成本的上涨（我预计食品成本将持续上涨）应该会阻碍消费者未来的可自由支配支出。我以前写过关于马赛克公司（MOS）和安德森公司（ANDE）的文章，概述了我对这一趋势的理由。</blockquote></p><p> In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，我们可以根据2019年底的数据查看他们对消费者可自由支配支出的历史敞口。当考虑到以下数据时：零售；专业服务、美容及个护、家居及维修、休闲娱乐及休闲使用，总曝光量约为59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista（Raynor de Best–卖家行业GPV，2019年12月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p><p><blockquote>虽然由于比特币的权重，这可能不会对其收入数据产生重大影响，但我确实预计这将削弱未来的毛利润数据，并随着刺激措施进一步消退对利润率产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p><p><blockquote>在检查SQ的财务状况时，我们可以很容易地看到，比特币是推动其收入增长的主要因素（MRQ占总收入的69%），其估值也由此得出（参见上面的介绍部分-SQ价格与收入部分；和定量部分-SQ价格相关性）。</blockquote></p><p> From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年第一季度股东信第12页中，他们表示，截至2021年3月31日，他们所持股份的公允价值为4.72亿美元。这一天的收盘价为58,918.83美元，约合8,011个比特币。他们还表示，在此期间和第四季度，他们最初向比特币投资了2亿美元，因此他们的平均价格约为每个比特币25,000美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p><p><blockquote>目前，比特币的价格约为34,600美元，它似乎也很难找到吸引力，尤其是当你研究其他一些趋势时。例如，看看谷歌趋势上“购买比特币”的搜索趋势，这显然正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词-全球5年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当你将这些数据与刺激支付联系起来时，很明显这两者在2020年下半年存在关系，最近的大部分猜测可能是由政府补贴驱动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USA.Gov（新冠刺激支票日期）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>搜索量的激增大约发生在后两次政府刺激支票的时间，有几天到几周的滞后。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词-美国12个月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这也与比特币在2020年12月和2021年1月的价格上涨以及2021年3月和4月的失败反弹相吻合。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（比特币价格1年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在这个例子中，如果我们持续抛售-70%，这与2018年发生的情况类似。我们将回到2020年11月比特币价格约为20,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在数量减少、进一步立法和哈希率下降的基础上，这仍然是可行的。从理论上讲，SQ可能会产生4000万美元的减值费用，这将极大地影响营业收入、净利润和股东收益以及未来预期。尽管这纯粹是理论上的，没有考虑当前季度的交易，例如在ATH或附近的购买或销售。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于未来缺乏刺激付款以及消费者可自由支配支出收紧，随着进入该领域的资金减少和销量下降，比特币产生的收入也可能下降。对SQ的收入估计以及随后的价格和估值产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash App</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金应用程序</b></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，Cash App正在呈指数级增长，成为用户交易的可行平台，每月交易活跃客户超过3600万，同比增长50%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cash App的这种增长未来可能是不可持续的，SQ在其季度备案说明中详细阐述了这一点：</blockquote></p><p>   Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from&nbsp;  <b>government relief programs</b>&nbsp;most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i>  Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>Cash App收入受益于Cash App活跃客户数量的增长以及<b>政府救济计划</b>最近于2020年12月下旬和2021年3月通过成为法律，以及2020年通过的早期刺激计划的累积收益。这些计划提供了额外的刺激救济和失业福利，导致消费者支出和流入我们的Cash App生态系统的资金增加。Cash App的收入增长在未来几个季度可能无法维持在相同水平，并且可能会受到进一步刺激救济和福利计划的颁布以及比特币的需求和市场价格等因素的影响。<i>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度10Q文件–第49页）</i>Cash App的部分问题是理论上的持续使用和未来的采用。去年的大部分增长主要是由通过Cash App生态系统进行的刺激支付推动的，因此在这种情况下是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p><p><blockquote>该应用程序的搜索量出现了两次急剧上升：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>April 12-18 2020</li>  <li>January 24-30 2021</li> </ul> These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2020年4月12日至18日</li><li>2021年1月24日至30日</li></ul>这些与刺激付款相吻合，因为他们最初发送这些款项，并逐渐将其存入人们的账户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（现金应用搜索词-美国5年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>因此，随着政府刺激付款结束，比特币再次失去相关性，越来越多的人重返工作岗位，日间交易减少，这可能会对未来的用户增长指标产生负面影响，影响SQ的收入估计、毛利润数据及其收益。</blockquote></p><p> Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有许多其他更可行的平台，另一位Seeking Alpha撰稿人The Value Trend在这里详细介绍了这些平台。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要记住他们如何定义这些用户，“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”如下：</blockquote></p><p>   ... has at least  <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i>  So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p><p><blockquote>...至少有<b>一笔金融交易</b>在指定期间内使用Cash App内的任何产品或服务。<i>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信-第4页）</i>因此，如果客户每月一次从雇主那里收到工资或失业救济金，并每月一次将所有工资转入他们的银行账户，那么他们就是“交易活跃现金应用客户”...</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p><p><blockquote>也许一个“活跃”客户的更好的量词是大于5笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p><p><blockquote>检查SQ的技术面，很明显该股目前在200美元至280美元之间波动，在250美元处有几次突破尝试，在300美元附近有两次失败的尝试，显示出几个迹象表明势头正在消失。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自FINVIZ（SQ图表）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在检查暗池订单流时，由于暗池处于低点，当前的反弹有可能继续，这可能会持续到8月份的收益中。尽管我不会抱太大希望，除非出现一些严重的好消息，比特币反弹回ATHs。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Squeezemetrics.com（SQ暗池与隐含Vol 2年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>从13F备案中也可以看到，不少基金降低了敞口并平仓，新增仓位较少。看跌期权与看涨期权的比率也变得相当高，尤其是在市值为1000亿美元的股票上，这表明我们并不是唯一有同样想法的人。</blockquote></p><p> Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p><p><blockquote>但需要谨慎，因为SQ与比特币的问题显然正在成为共识交易，当这些看跌期权被取消时，伽马可能会转为正值，并可能导致该股大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Whalewisdom.com（SQ基金定位）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been&nbsp;significant liquidity issues&nbsp;the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，就ARK ETF而言，过去6个月出现重大流动性问题也就不足为奇了，我同意另一位Seeking Alpha撰稿人的论点，即我们将看到这些ETF中持有的股票价格回归均值。值得注意的是，Cathie已经显著减少了她对SQ的接触，她可能正在选择她的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Cathiesark.com（持有SQ股票-所有ETF）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于上述信息，这是一家很难做空的公司。它要么会带来巨大的回报，要么会因为它的波动性而撕碎你的脸。此外，许多基金希望对财务报表上有比特币的公司进行少量投资。因此，如果您要自担风险将其作为空头进行交易，建议谨慎行事，并且您应该始终选择战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p><p><blockquote>根据SQ ATR的波动性，SQ有可能在今年年底前跌至约100美元的低点，40%的情况下走势有利。如果你把比特币完全从等式中剔除，这与我的2021年底价格一致。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者（SQ ATR计算器）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这样做是不明智的，因为这是他们目前收入的一部分，无论2021年初比特币的销量有多高，年底可能有多低。</blockquote></p><p> I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p><p><blockquote>我确实预计该股将再次下跌并重新测试200美元，可能跌破160美元。尽管很难确定SQ的估值，主要是因为估值来自比特币收入，以及基金和市场在未来采用该资产时的感知价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p><p><blockquote>如果市场再次开始认为比特币无关紧要，我预计SQ将慢慢抛售至150美元至160美元之间（下跌-37%），反弹超过300美元（上涨25%）的可能性很低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，应注意以下风险。</blockquote></p><p> The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p><p><blockquote>不管你喜不喜欢SQ，公司都在成长。主要问题是：市场会在任何现实基础上对比特币进行估值吗？不管有没有比特币，它增长了多少？无论有没有比特币，未来的潜在增长是多少？市场相信吗，或者就此而言在乎吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币失去相关性，从谷歌趋势来看，这种可能性更大，那么假设SQ将因此在2021年下半年遭受损失并对收入预期造成重大打击并不奇怪。然而，如果比特币的采用率增加并且负面消息消退，由于这是一家成长型公司，它可能会继续上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p><p><blockquote>此外，消费者支出模式正在产生混合数据，上面我提出了一个熊市案例。如果人们的行为发生变化，例如申请将增加经济支出的工作，并有望产生小企业增长，增加小企业的乐观情绪和扩张，这对于SQ作为支付处理领域的周期性企业非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>同样，谨慎是必要的，尽管我确实认为公司未来的增长已被定价，SQ持有者面临的下行风险高于上行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家高增长公司，从长远来看具有一些潜在的积极点；然而，其估值非常值得怀疑，因为其高收入预期主要来自比特币交易，而不是盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>从定量角度来看，它在同行中看起来不错，但经过进一步检查，它似乎被严重高估，因为未来的增长（至少2021年）可能来自比特币。此外，如果没有政府的持续刺激，其Cash App采用统计数据可能不会继续看到相同的运行率。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，它还面临着一些潜在的宏观经济障碍，包括小企业风险、贷款竞争对手、消费者交易竞争对手、比特币立法和零售需求疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117734317","content_text":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.\nIn reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.\nThis has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.\nAnd whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.\nGiven the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.\n\nAndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nSquare Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the most popular stocks among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.\nOn the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a banking license via Square Financial Services.\nHowever, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.\nSource: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)\nIn addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.\nOverview\nSQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)\nAs of March 2020, the company has received a Banking License from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.\nGiven all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.\nThis was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)\nHowever, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)\nQuantitative\nYear to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector >$50 bln Year to Date)\nIt is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.\nSource: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)\nWhilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.\nHowever, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.\nFor this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.\nSource: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)\nSource: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)\nAs we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.\nMany will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:\nSource: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)\nOn a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)\nThis becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.\nSource: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)\nGiven the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend in which the author suggests that SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.\nMacro\nWhilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.\nWhilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.\nSmall Business Environment\nSQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)\nThe majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with <$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)\nDelving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.\nSource: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)\nAgain, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)\nFurther, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)\nAdditionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)\nSmall Business Lending\nLooking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.\nCurrently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.\nSource: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)\nThis can be verified through the credit conditions index in the monthly NFIB report. Although, an American Banker survey is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.\nThis is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of capital restraints placed on Wells Fargo & Company (WFC).\nSource: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)\nThere is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had lifted these restraints to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.\nBitcoin, Legislation & Gensler\nBitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor banks have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the purchase of Bitcoin using their services.\nThe primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.\nConsequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China and India.\nThis has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.\nIt is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.\nSource: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)\nWhilst the SEC has come out and said that Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to 2000 and 2008.\nLooking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.\nGeneral Economy - The Worry for Retail\nSeparately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout 2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.\nSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)\nAdditionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.\nThe consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is considered to be the most revealing amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.\nSource: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)\nFinally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.\nIn relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.\nSource: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)\nWhilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.\nFinancials\nBitcoin\nWhen examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).\nFrom their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.\nCurrently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)\nAdditionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.\nSource: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)\nThe spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)\nThis also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.\nSource: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)\nThus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.\nThis is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.\nAdditionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.\nCash App\nOn the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)\nHowever, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:\n\n Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from \n government relief programs most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)\n\nPart of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.\nThe two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:\n\nApril 12-18 2020\nJanuary 24-30 2021\n\nThese coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.\nSource: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)\nTherefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.\nFurther, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.\nIt is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:\n\n ... has at least\n one financial transactionusing any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)\n\nSo, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...\nPerhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.\nTechnicals\nExamining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.\nSource: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)\nWhen examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.\nSource: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)\nFrom the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.\nCaution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.\nSource: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)\nFurther, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been significant liquidity issues the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.\nSource: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)\nGiven the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.\nPrice Targets\nOn the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.\nSource: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)\nHowever, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.\nI do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.\nIf the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).\nRisks\nWith respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.\nThe company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?\nIf the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.\nFurther, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.\nAgain, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.\nSummary\nSQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.\nFrom a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.\nAdditionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124423107,"gmtCreate":1624782727209,"gmtModify":1631890272679,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no~","listText":"Oh no~","text":"Oh no~","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124423107","repostId":"1121141266","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121141266","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624760169,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121141266?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121141266","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.Tesla  apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”The notice from","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局周五晚间表示，由于辅助驾驶功能存在问题，特斯拉将不得不“召回”近30万辆中国制造或进口的汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在中国社交媒体网站微博上道歉。据《华尔街日报》报道，该公司表示：“对于此次召回给所有车主带来的不便，我们深表歉意。”“特斯拉将严格按照国家要求，持续提升安全性。”</blockquote></p><p> The notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service&nbsp;AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question from<i>Barron’s</i>on whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.</p><p><blockquote>据法新社报道，中国监管机构的通知称，巡航控制系统可能会意外启动，从而导致碰撞。报道称，特斯拉将能够为受影响的客户远程更新软件，这样他们就不必归还汽车。监管机构没有立即回答来自<i>巴伦周刊</i>关于这个问题是否已经在中国导致了碰撞。</blockquote></p><p> China is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by&nbsp;more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.</p><p><blockquote>中国是特斯拉的一个重要市场，该公司约30%的汽车在中国销售。中国的销量最近参差不齐，4月份有所下降，随后5月份的数据更加乐观。自2019年以来，特斯拉一直在上海工厂生产汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with&nbsp;a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些中国客户抱怨特斯拉的质量和服务，并在四月份的上海车展上提出了抗议。特斯拉四月份就其处理客户投诉的方式向客户道歉。</blockquote></p><p> The issues are part of&nbsp;a larger public relations problem&nbsp;that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was&nbsp;on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.</p><p><blockquote>这些问题是更大的公关问题的一部分，该问题可能会给特斯拉股价带来压力，该股在2020年上涨八倍后，今年下跌了5%。尽管如此，该股在过去一周一直在上涨，这可能与对季末汽车交付的乐观情绪有关。特斯拉尚未公布第二季度财报发布日期。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚中国的问题是否也会影响美国的车辆。周六上午，特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局周五晚间表示，由于辅助驾驶功能存在问题，特斯拉将不得不“召回”近30万辆中国制造或进口的汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在中国社交媒体网站微博上道歉。据《华尔街日报》报道，该公司表示：“对于此次召回给所有车主带来的不便，我们深表歉意。”“特斯拉将严格按照国家要求，持续提升安全性。”</blockquote></p><p> The notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service&nbsp;AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question from<i>Barron’s</i>on whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.</p><p><blockquote>据法新社报道，中国监管机构的通知称，巡航控制系统可能会意外启动，从而导致碰撞。报道称，特斯拉将能够为受影响的客户远程更新软件，这样他们就不必归还汽车。监管机构没有立即回答来自<i>巴伦周刊</i>关于这个问题是否已经在中国导致了碰撞。</blockquote></p><p> China is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by&nbsp;more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.</p><p><blockquote>中国是特斯拉的一个重要市场，该公司约30%的汽车在中国销售。中国的销量最近参差不齐，4月份有所下降，随后5月份的数据更加乐观。自2019年以来，特斯拉一直在上海工厂生产汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with&nbsp;a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些中国客户抱怨特斯拉的质量和服务，并在四月份的上海车展上提出了抗议。特斯拉四月份就其处理客户投诉的方式向客户道歉。</blockquote></p><p> The issues are part of&nbsp;a larger public relations problem&nbsp;that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was&nbsp;on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.</p><p><blockquote>这些问题是更大的公关问题的一部分，该问题可能会给特斯拉股价带来压力，该股在2020年上涨八倍后，今年下跌了5%。尽管如此，该股在过去一周一直在上涨，这可能与对季末汽车交付的乐观情绪有关。特斯拉尚未公布第二季度财报发布日期。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚中国的问题是否也会影响美国的车辆。周六上午，特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-recall-china-51624718932?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-recall-china-51624718932?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121141266","content_text":"Tesla will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.\nTesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”\nThe notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question fromBarron’son whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.\nChina is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.\nLately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.\nThe issues are part of a larger public relations problem that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.\nIt’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124423379,"gmtCreate":1624782707991,"gmtModify":1631890272684,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no~","listText":"Oh no~","text":"Oh no~","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124423379","repostId":"1121141266","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121141266","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624760169,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121141266?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121141266","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.Tesla  apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”The notice from","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局周五晚间表示，由于辅助驾驶功能存在问题，特斯拉将不得不“召回”近30万辆中国制造或进口的汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在中国社交媒体网站微博上道歉。据《华尔街日报》报道，该公司表示：“对于此次召回给所有车主带来的不便，我们深表歉意。”“特斯拉将严格按照国家要求，持续提升安全性。”</blockquote></p><p> The notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service&nbsp;AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question from<i>Barron’s</i>on whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.</p><p><blockquote>据法新社报道，中国监管机构的通知称，巡航控制系统可能会意外启动，从而导致碰撞。报道称，特斯拉将能够为受影响的客户远程更新软件，这样他们就不必归还汽车。监管机构没有立即回答来自<i>巴伦周刊</i>关于这个问题是否已经在中国导致了碰撞。</blockquote></p><p> China is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by&nbsp;more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.</p><p><blockquote>中国是特斯拉的一个重要市场，该公司约30%的汽车在中国销售。中国的销量最近参差不齐，4月份有所下降，随后5月份的数据更加乐观。自2019年以来，特斯拉一直在上海工厂生产汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with&nbsp;a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些中国客户抱怨特斯拉的质量和服务，并在四月份的上海车展上提出了抗议。特斯拉四月份就其处理客户投诉的方式向客户道歉。</blockquote></p><p> The issues are part of&nbsp;a larger public relations problem&nbsp;that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was&nbsp;on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.</p><p><blockquote>这些问题是更大的公关问题的一部分，该问题可能会给特斯拉股价带来压力，该股在2020年上涨八倍后，今年下跌了5%。尽管如此，该股在过去一周一直在上涨，这可能与对季末汽车交付的乐观情绪有关。特斯拉尚未公布第二季度财报发布日期。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚中国的问题是否也会影响美国的车辆。周六上午，特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局周五晚间表示，由于辅助驾驶功能存在问题，特斯拉将不得不“召回”近30万辆中国制造或进口的汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在中国社交媒体网站微博上道歉。据《华尔街日报》报道，该公司表示：“对于此次召回给所有车主带来的不便，我们深表歉意。”“特斯拉将严格按照国家要求，持续提升安全性。”</blockquote></p><p> The notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service&nbsp;AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question from<i>Barron’s</i>on whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.</p><p><blockquote>据法新社报道，中国监管机构的通知称，巡航控制系统可能会意外启动，从而导致碰撞。报道称，特斯拉将能够为受影响的客户远程更新软件，这样他们就不必归还汽车。监管机构没有立即回答来自<i>巴伦周刊</i>关于这个问题是否已经在中国导致了碰撞。</blockquote></p><p> China is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by&nbsp;more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.</p><p><blockquote>中国是特斯拉的一个重要市场，该公司约30%的汽车在中国销售。中国的销量最近参差不齐，4月份有所下降，随后5月份的数据更加乐观。自2019年以来，特斯拉一直在上海工厂生产汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with&nbsp;a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些中国客户抱怨特斯拉的质量和服务，并在四月份的上海车展上提出了抗议。特斯拉四月份就其处理客户投诉的方式向客户道歉。</blockquote></p><p> The issues are part of&nbsp;a larger public relations problem&nbsp;that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was&nbsp;on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.</p><p><blockquote>这些问题是更大的公关问题的一部分，该问题可能会给特斯拉股价带来压力，该股在2020年上涨八倍后，今年下跌了5%。尽管如此，该股在过去一周一直在上涨，这可能与对季末汽车交付的乐观情绪有关。特斯拉尚未公布第二季度财报发布日期。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚中国的问题是否也会影响美国的车辆。周六上午，特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-recall-china-51624718932?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-recall-china-51624718932?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121141266","content_text":"Tesla will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.\nTesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”\nThe notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question fromBarron’son whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.\nChina is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.\nLately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.\nThe issues are part of a larger public relations problem that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.\nIt’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>will you enter?","text":"$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$will you enter?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c5642d00713a236d89d94939416761f","width":"1125","height":"3299"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109533866","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109530306,"gmtCreate":1619704183205,"gmtModify":1634210580806,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>penthouse&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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Motors(TSLA)$penthouse","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140de23db76c299ca5c9d8b6670966c1","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109530306","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135990598,"gmtCreate":1622124712814,"gmtModify":1631892503999,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135990598","repostId":"1162762819","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347597824,"gmtCreate":1618500169968,"gmtModify":1634292475930,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What happen?!?","listText":"What happen?!?","text":"What happen?!?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347597824","repostId":"1156256429","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156256429","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618495767,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156256429?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-15 22:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese electric vehicle stocks  fell sharply<blockquote>中国电动汽车股大幅下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156256429","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":" Chinese electric vehicle stocks fell sharply. Xpeng Motors fell about 6%, NIO fell about 5%, Li fell more than 7%.Days ago, Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: BYD Company Limited BYDDY, NIO Inc. NIO, Li Auto Inc. LI and XPeng Inc. XPEV.Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:Chinese Auto","content":"<p>(April 15)&nbsp;Chinese&nbsp;electric vehicle stocks fell sharply.&nbsp;Xpeng Motors&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;6%,&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;5%,&nbsp;Li&nbsp;fell&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;7%.</p><p><blockquote>（4月15日）中资电动车股大跌，小鹏汽车跌约6%，蔚来跌约5%，理想跌超7%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbaf16ea0d1c0365c2cd923a7641e5c1\" tg-width=\"313\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Days&nbsp;ago,&nbsp;Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: BYD Company Limited BYDDY, NIO Inc. NIO, Li Auto Inc. LI and XPeng Inc. XPEV.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，Zacks.com宣布了分析师博客中精选的股票名单。Zacks股票研究分析师每天都会讨论影响股票和金融市场的最新新闻和事件。博客中最近介绍的股票包括：比亚迪股份有限公司BYDDY、蔚来蔚来、理想汽车公司LI和小鹏汽车XPEV。</blockquote></p><p>Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:<i>Chinese Auto Sales on Fast Track - Will It Hit a Speed Bump?</i></p><p><blockquote>以下是周一分析师博客的亮点：<i>中国汽车销售步入快车道——会遇到减速带吗？</i></blockquote></p><p>Vehicle sales in China for the month of March soared for the 12th straight month to 2.53 million units, per the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (“CAAM”). Sales spiked 75% from the corresponding period of 2020, when the country’s vehicle demand was badly hit by coronavirus woes.</p><p><blockquote>中国汽车工业协会（“中国汽车工业协会”）报告称，中国三月份的汽车销量连续第12个月飙升至253万辆。销量较2020年同期飙升75%，当时该国的汽车需求受到冠状病毒灾难的严重打击。</blockquote></p><p>Digging Into Sales Numbers</p><p><blockquote>挖掘销售数据</blockquote></p><p>For the first quarter of 2021, sales surged 76% year over year to top 6.48 million units. The massive jump was due to lower severity of COVID-19 impacts, which crimped showroom traffic in the comparable year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，销量同比飙升76%，达到648万辆。大幅增长是由于COVID-19影响的严重程度较低，这限制了去年同期的展厅客流量。</blockquote></p><p>In fact, automakers in China suffered their bleakest ever quarter in the January-March 2020 period. However, thanks to supportive government policies, gradual reopening of economic activities and pent-up vehicle demand, China is now at the forefront of global auto market recovery.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，中国汽车制造商在2020年1月至3月期间遭遇了有史以来最惨淡的季度。然而，得益于政府的支持性政策、经济活动的逐步重新开放以及被压抑的汽车需求，中国目前处于全球汽车市场复苏的最前沿。</blockquote></p><p>Deliveries of new light vehicles including sport utility vehicles, sedans and multi-purpose vehicles grew 77% to exceed 1.87 million units in March 2021. Deliveries of commercial vehicles including pickups and buses rose 68% year over year to 651,000 units. Electric vehicle sales jumped a whopping 240% year over year to 226,000 units.</p><p><blockquote>2021年3月，包括运动型多用途车、轿车和多用途车在内的新型轻型汽车交付量增长77%，超过187万辆。包括皮卡和公共汽车在内的商用车交付量同比增长68%，达到651,000辆。电动汽车销量同比猛增240%，达到226,000辆。</blockquote></p><p>New light vehicle deliveries in first-quarter 2021 climbed 75% from the comparable year-ago period to 5.08 million units. Sales of commercial vehicles and EVs spiked 77% and 280% to 1.41 million units and 515,000 units, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度新轻型汽车交付量较去年同期增长75%，达到508万辆。商用车和电动汽车销量同比分别增长77%和280%，达到141万辆和51.5万辆。</blockquote></p><p>China EV Market on Fire, Competition Revs Up</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车市场火热，竞争加剧</blockquote></p><p>Demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has been on the rise amid climate change concerns and favorable government policies. Importantly, the country projects electric vehicles (EVs) to account for 25% of new car sales by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>由于对气候变化的担忧和有利的政府政策，对新能源汽车（NEV）的需求一直在上升。重要的是，该国预计到2025年电动汽车(EV)将占新车销量的25%。</blockquote></p><p>Last April, the government of China announced plans to extend subsidies and tax breaks for NEVs such as electric or plug-in hybrid cars for another two years to spur sales. Buoyed by favorable government policies and improving consumer confidence and economy, China — world’s largest EV market — is seeing solid sales of zero-emission vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>去年四月，中国政府宣布计划将电动或插电式混合动力汽车等新能源汽车的补贴和税收减免再延长两年，以刺激销售。在有利的政府政策以及消费者信心和经济改善的推动下，全球最大的电动汽车市场中国的零排放汽车销量稳健。</blockquote></p><p>China-based EV makers including<b>BYD Co</b>,<b>NIO</b>,<b>Li Auto</b>and<b>XPeng</b>registered strong EV sales last month. Warren Buffett-backed BYD sold 24,218 EVs in March, representing a year-over-year jump of 97.6%.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商包括<b>比亚迪公司</b>,<b>蔚来</b>,<b>理想汽车</b>和<b>小鹏</b>上个月电动汽车销量强劲。沃伦·巴菲特支持的比亚迪3月份电动汽车销量为24,218辆，同比增长97.6%。</blockquote></p><p>NIO — which currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) — delivered 7,257 EVs last month, skyrocketing 373% year over year. EV makers Li Auto and XPeng delivered 4,900 and 5,102 vehicles, up a whopping 238.6% and 384%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. You can see<b>the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here</b>.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来——目前在咤克斯排名第三（持有）——上个月交付了7,257辆电动汽车，同比飙升373%。电动汽车制造商理想汽车和小鹏汽车交付了4,900辆和5,102辆汽车，同比分别增长238.6%和384%。你可以看到<b>今天Zacks排名第一（强力买入）股票的完整列表在这里</b>.</blockquote></p><p>Foreign carmakers including<b>Tesla</b>,<b>GM</b>and<b>Ford</b>are also registering strong sales and actively ramping up operations in the country. Per China Passenger Car Association, EV behemoth Tesla sold 35,478 China-made cars last month. The company commands a huge market share in the EV market of China, thanks to robust production from the Shanghai Gigafactory.</p><p><blockquote>外国汽车制造商包括<b>特斯拉</b>,<b>GM</b>和<b>福特</b>也实现了强劲的销售并积极扩大在该国的业务。根据中国乘用车协会的数据，电动汽车巨头特斯拉上个月售出了35,478辆中国制造的汽车。得益于上海超级工厂的强劲生产，该公司在中国电动汽车市场占据了巨大的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p>Overall vehicle sales by Ford and General Motors in China witnessed a year-over-year rally of 73% and 69%, respectively, for first-quarter 2021. General Motors is speeding up the development of advanced technologies in China to enable an all-electric future.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，福特和通用汽车在中国的整体汽车销量分别同比增长73%和69%。通用汽车正在中国加快先进技术的开发，以实现全电动的未来。</blockquote></p><p>The company’s next-generation EVs (across all brands) in China will be powered by Ultium Drive. It should be noted that the Cadillac LYRIQ SUV would be the first Ultium-powered vehicle to be rolled out in China at Auto Shanghai 2021 later this month.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在中国的下一代电动汽车（所有品牌）将由Ultium Drive提供动力。值得注意的是，凯迪拉克LYRIQ SUV将是本月晚些时候在中国推出的首款Ultium动力汽车。</blockquote></p><p>Importantly, Sales of Hong Guang mini-EV — under General Motors’ Wuling brand — exceeded 72,000 units in first-quarter 2021, retaining its position as the best-selling green vehicle in the country. Meanwhile, Ford is set to manufacture its electric Mustang Mach-E in China with its joint venture Changan Ford.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，通用汽车五菱品牌宏光mini-EV的销量在2021年第一季度超过72,000辆，保持了该国最畅销绿色汽车的地位。与此同时，福特将与其合资企业长安福特在中国生产电动野马Mach-E。</blockquote></p><p>Amid soaring demand, competition is heating up in the China EV market. Even with the subsidies ending in 2022, the e-mobility battle in China is getting fiercer by the day with new upstarts, legacy automakers and tech titans foraying into the space.</p><p><blockquote>在需求飙升的情况下，中国电动汽车市场的竞争也在加剧。尽管补贴将于2022年结束，但随着新贵、传统汽车制造商和科技巨头纷纷进军该领域，中国的电动汽车之战日益激烈。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>A few days back, China’s leading smartphone maker Xiaomi announced that it is set to invest $10 billion in the development of EVs over the next 10 years. The company intends to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary with an initial investment of around $1.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，中国领先的智能手机制造商小米宣布，将在未来10年内投资100亿美元用于电动汽车的开发。公司拟设立全资子公司，初始投资约15亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Ride-hailing platform Didi Chuxing has also launched an EV unit and collaborated with BYD to develop EVs designed for its services. Telecom equipment giant Huawei Technology also aims to launch electric cars under its brand and may roll out a couple of models this year. Search engine behemoth Baidu also announced plans to launch an electric car business in January.</p><p><blockquote>网约车平台滴滴出行也推出了电动汽车部门，并与比亚迪合作开发专为其服务设计的电动汽车。电信设备巨头华为科技也计划推出其品牌的电动汽车，并可能在今年推出几款车型。搜索引擎巨头百度也在一月份宣布了推出电动汽车业务的计划。</blockquote></p><p>Chip Deficit to Play Spoilsport</p><p><blockquote>筹码短缺导致扫兴</blockquote></p><p>While China’s vehicle sales have rebounded quite strongly, will the recovery sustain amid the global chip crunch? Well, CAAM has already warned that the chip shortage is set to adversely impact auto production in the nation in second-quarter 2021. The agency does not expect the shortfall to ease until the fourth quarter of this year.</p><p><blockquote>虽然中国汽车销量反弹相当强劲，但在全球芯片紧缩的情况下，复苏能否持续？CAAM已经警告称，芯片短缺将对2021年第二季度该国的汽车生产产生不利影响。该机构预计缺口要到今年第四季度才会缓解。</blockquote></p><p>Although China is the largest auto market, it depends heavily on chip imports and is the largest buyer of semiconductors. Amid the chip shortfall, carmakers are scrambling to procure semiconductors, which are forcing them to undergo production cuts and idle factories. NIO shuttered operations for five days beginning Mar 29 due to microchip shortfall. Volvo Cars, owned by Geely Holdings, also halted production last month. In the absence of a quick solution to this chip problem, auto industry recovery in China may soon be losing steam.</p><p><blockquote>中国虽然是最大的汽车市场，但严重依赖芯片进口，是半导体的最大买家。在芯片短缺的情况下，汽车制造商争先恐后地采购半导体，这迫使他们减产并闲置工厂。由于微芯片短缺，蔚来从3月29日开始关闭运营五天。吉利控股旗下的沃尔沃汽车也于上月停产。如果这个芯片问题没有快速解决方案，中国汽车行业的复苏可能很快就会失去动力。</blockquote></p><p>These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the Pandemic</p><p><blockquote>这些股票有望在疫情过后飙升</blockquote></p><p>The COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎的爆发极大地改变了消费者的行为，一些高科技公司已经站出来维持美国的运转。目前，这些公司的投资者有机会获得可观的利润。例如，Zoom在不到4个月的时间里上涨了108.5%，而大多数其他股票却在下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.</p><p><blockquote>我们的研究表明，由于对“呆在家里”技术的需求呈指数级增长，5只前沿股票可能会飙升。这可能是本十年最大的买入机会之一，尤其是对于那些早期买入的人来说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese electric vehicle stocks  fell sharply<blockquote>中国电动汽车股大幅下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese electric vehicle stocks  fell sharply<blockquote>中国电动汽车股大幅下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-15 22:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(April 15)&nbsp;Chinese&nbsp;electric vehicle stocks fell sharply.&nbsp;Xpeng Motors&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;6%,&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;5%,&nbsp;Li&nbsp;fell&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;7%.</p><p><blockquote>（4月15日）中资电动车股大跌，小鹏汽车跌约6%，蔚来跌约5%，理想跌超7%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbaf16ea0d1c0365c2cd923a7641e5c1\" tg-width=\"313\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Days&nbsp;ago,&nbsp;Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: BYD Company Limited BYDDY, NIO Inc. NIO, Li Auto Inc. LI and XPeng Inc. XPEV.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，Zacks.com宣布了分析师博客中精选的股票名单。Zacks股票研究分析师每天都会讨论影响股票和金融市场的最新新闻和事件。博客中最近介绍的股票包括：比亚迪股份有限公司BYDDY、蔚来蔚来、理想汽车公司LI和小鹏汽车XPEV。</blockquote></p><p>Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:<i>Chinese Auto Sales on Fast Track - Will It Hit a Speed Bump?</i></p><p><blockquote>以下是周一分析师博客的亮点：<i>中国汽车销售步入快车道——会遇到减速带吗？</i></blockquote></p><p>Vehicle sales in China for the month of March soared for the 12th straight month to 2.53 million units, per the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (“CAAM”). Sales spiked 75% from the corresponding period of 2020, when the country’s vehicle demand was badly hit by coronavirus woes.</p><p><blockquote>中国汽车工业协会（“中国汽车工业协会”）报告称，中国三月份的汽车销量连续第12个月飙升至253万辆。销量较2020年同期飙升75%，当时该国的汽车需求受到冠状病毒灾难的严重打击。</blockquote></p><p>Digging Into Sales Numbers</p><p><blockquote>挖掘销售数据</blockquote></p><p>For the first quarter of 2021, sales surged 76% year over year to top 6.48 million units. The massive jump was due to lower severity of COVID-19 impacts, which crimped showroom traffic in the comparable year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，销量同比飙升76%，达到648万辆。大幅增长是由于COVID-19影响的严重程度较低，这限制了去年同期的展厅客流量。</blockquote></p><p>In fact, automakers in China suffered their bleakest ever quarter in the January-March 2020 period. However, thanks to supportive government policies, gradual reopening of economic activities and pent-up vehicle demand, China is now at the forefront of global auto market recovery.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，中国汽车制造商在2020年1月至3月期间遭遇了有史以来最惨淡的季度。然而，得益于政府的支持性政策、经济活动的逐步重新开放以及被压抑的汽车需求，中国目前处于全球汽车市场复苏的最前沿。</blockquote></p><p>Deliveries of new light vehicles including sport utility vehicles, sedans and multi-purpose vehicles grew 77% to exceed 1.87 million units in March 2021. Deliveries of commercial vehicles including pickups and buses rose 68% year over year to 651,000 units. Electric vehicle sales jumped a whopping 240% year over year to 226,000 units.</p><p><blockquote>2021年3月，包括运动型多用途车、轿车和多用途车在内的新型轻型汽车交付量增长77%，超过187万辆。包括皮卡和公共汽车在内的商用车交付量同比增长68%，达到651,000辆。电动汽车销量同比猛增240%，达到226,000辆。</blockquote></p><p>New light vehicle deliveries in first-quarter 2021 climbed 75% from the comparable year-ago period to 5.08 million units. Sales of commercial vehicles and EVs spiked 77% and 280% to 1.41 million units and 515,000 units, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度新轻型汽车交付量较去年同期增长75%，达到508万辆。商用车和电动汽车销量同比分别增长77%和280%，达到141万辆和51.5万辆。</blockquote></p><p>China EV Market on Fire, Competition Revs Up</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车市场火热，竞争加剧</blockquote></p><p>Demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has been on the rise amid climate change concerns and favorable government policies. Importantly, the country projects electric vehicles (EVs) to account for 25% of new car sales by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>由于对气候变化的担忧和有利的政府政策，对新能源汽车（NEV）的需求一直在上升。重要的是，该国预计到2025年电动汽车(EV)将占新车销量的25%。</blockquote></p><p>Last April, the government of China announced plans to extend subsidies and tax breaks for NEVs such as electric or plug-in hybrid cars for another two years to spur sales. Buoyed by favorable government policies and improving consumer confidence and economy, China — world’s largest EV market — is seeing solid sales of zero-emission vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>去年四月，中国政府宣布计划将电动或插电式混合动力汽车等新能源汽车的补贴和税收减免再延长两年，以刺激销售。在有利的政府政策以及消费者信心和经济改善的推动下，全球最大的电动汽车市场中国的零排放汽车销量稳健。</blockquote></p><p>China-based EV makers including<b>BYD Co</b>,<b>NIO</b>,<b>Li Auto</b>and<b>XPeng</b>registered strong EV sales last month. Warren Buffett-backed BYD sold 24,218 EVs in March, representing a year-over-year jump of 97.6%.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商包括<b>比亚迪公司</b>,<b>蔚来</b>,<b>理想汽车</b>和<b>小鹏</b>上个月电动汽车销量强劲。沃伦·巴菲特支持的比亚迪3月份电动汽车销量为24,218辆，同比增长97.6%。</blockquote></p><p>NIO — which currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) — delivered 7,257 EVs last month, skyrocketing 373% year over year. EV makers Li Auto and XPeng delivered 4,900 and 5,102 vehicles, up a whopping 238.6% and 384%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. You can see<b>the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here</b>.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来——目前在咤克斯排名第三（持有）——上个月交付了7,257辆电动汽车，同比飙升373%。电动汽车制造商理想汽车和小鹏汽车交付了4,900辆和5,102辆汽车，同比分别增长238.6%和384%。你可以看到<b>今天Zacks排名第一（强力买入）股票的完整列表在这里</b>.</blockquote></p><p>Foreign carmakers including<b>Tesla</b>,<b>GM</b>and<b>Ford</b>are also registering strong sales and actively ramping up operations in the country. Per China Passenger Car Association, EV behemoth Tesla sold 35,478 China-made cars last month. The company commands a huge market share in the EV market of China, thanks to robust production from the Shanghai Gigafactory.</p><p><blockquote>外国汽车制造商包括<b>特斯拉</b>,<b>GM</b>和<b>福特</b>也实现了强劲的销售并积极扩大在该国的业务。根据中国乘用车协会的数据，电动汽车巨头特斯拉上个月售出了35,478辆中国制造的汽车。得益于上海超级工厂的强劲生产，该公司在中国电动汽车市场占据了巨大的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p>Overall vehicle sales by Ford and General Motors in China witnessed a year-over-year rally of 73% and 69%, respectively, for first-quarter 2021. General Motors is speeding up the development of advanced technologies in China to enable an all-electric future.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，福特和通用汽车在中国的整体汽车销量分别同比增长73%和69%。通用汽车正在中国加快先进技术的开发，以实现全电动的未来。</blockquote></p><p>The company’s next-generation EVs (across all brands) in China will be powered by Ultium Drive. It should be noted that the Cadillac LYRIQ SUV would be the first Ultium-powered vehicle to be rolled out in China at Auto Shanghai 2021 later this month.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在中国的下一代电动汽车（所有品牌）将由Ultium Drive提供动力。值得注意的是，凯迪拉克LYRIQ SUV将是本月晚些时候在中国推出的首款Ultium动力汽车。</blockquote></p><p>Importantly, Sales of Hong Guang mini-EV — under General Motors’ Wuling brand — exceeded 72,000 units in first-quarter 2021, retaining its position as the best-selling green vehicle in the country. Meanwhile, Ford is set to manufacture its electric Mustang Mach-E in China with its joint venture Changan Ford.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，通用汽车五菱品牌宏光mini-EV的销量在2021年第一季度超过72,000辆，保持了该国最畅销绿色汽车的地位。与此同时，福特将与其合资企业长安福特在中国生产电动野马Mach-E。</blockquote></p><p>Amid soaring demand, competition is heating up in the China EV market. Even with the subsidies ending in 2022, the e-mobility battle in China is getting fiercer by the day with new upstarts, legacy automakers and tech titans foraying into the space.</p><p><blockquote>在需求飙升的情况下，中国电动汽车市场的竞争也在加剧。尽管补贴将于2022年结束，但随着新贵、传统汽车制造商和科技巨头纷纷进军该领域，中国的电动汽车之战日益激烈。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>A few days back, China’s leading smartphone maker Xiaomi announced that it is set to invest $10 billion in the development of EVs over the next 10 years. The company intends to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary with an initial investment of around $1.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，中国领先的智能手机制造商小米宣布，将在未来10年内投资100亿美元用于电动汽车的开发。公司拟设立全资子公司，初始投资约15亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Ride-hailing platform Didi Chuxing has also launched an EV unit and collaborated with BYD to develop EVs designed for its services. Telecom equipment giant Huawei Technology also aims to launch electric cars under its brand and may roll out a couple of models this year. Search engine behemoth Baidu also announced plans to launch an electric car business in January.</p><p><blockquote>网约车平台滴滴出行也推出了电动汽车部门，并与比亚迪合作开发专为其服务设计的电动汽车。电信设备巨头华为科技也计划推出其品牌的电动汽车，并可能在今年推出几款车型。搜索引擎巨头百度也在一月份宣布了推出电动汽车业务的计划。</blockquote></p><p>Chip Deficit to Play Spoilsport</p><p><blockquote>筹码短缺导致扫兴</blockquote></p><p>While China’s vehicle sales have rebounded quite strongly, will the recovery sustain amid the global chip crunch? Well, CAAM has already warned that the chip shortage is set to adversely impact auto production in the nation in second-quarter 2021. The agency does not expect the shortfall to ease until the fourth quarter of this year.</p><p><blockquote>虽然中国汽车销量反弹相当强劲，但在全球芯片紧缩的情况下，复苏能否持续？CAAM已经警告称，芯片短缺将对2021年第二季度该国的汽车生产产生不利影响。该机构预计缺口要到今年第四季度才会缓解。</blockquote></p><p>Although China is the largest auto market, it depends heavily on chip imports and is the largest buyer of semiconductors. Amid the chip shortfall, carmakers are scrambling to procure semiconductors, which are forcing them to undergo production cuts and idle factories. NIO shuttered operations for five days beginning Mar 29 due to microchip shortfall. Volvo Cars, owned by Geely Holdings, also halted production last month. In the absence of a quick solution to this chip problem, auto industry recovery in China may soon be losing steam.</p><p><blockquote>中国虽然是最大的汽车市场，但严重依赖芯片进口，是半导体的最大买家。在芯片短缺的情况下，汽车制造商争先恐后地采购半导体，这迫使他们减产并闲置工厂。由于微芯片短缺，蔚来从3月29日开始关闭运营五天。吉利控股旗下的沃尔沃汽车也于上月停产。如果这个芯片问题没有快速解决方案，中国汽车行业的复苏可能很快就会失去动力。</blockquote></p><p>These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the Pandemic</p><p><blockquote>这些股票有望在疫情过后飙升</blockquote></p><p>The COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎的爆发极大地改变了消费者的行为，一些高科技公司已经站出来维持美国的运转。目前，这些公司的投资者有机会获得可观的利润。例如，Zoom在不到4个月的时间里上涨了108.5%，而大多数其他股票却在下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.</p><p><blockquote>我们的研究表明，由于对“呆在家里”技术的需求呈指数级增长，5只前沿股票可能会飙升。这可能是本十年最大的买入机会之一，尤其是对于那些早期买入的人来说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156256429","content_text":"(April 15) Chinese electric vehicle stocks fell sharply. Xpeng Motors fell about 6%, NIO fell about 5%, Li fell more than 7%.Days ago, Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: BYD Company Limited BYDDY, NIO Inc. NIO, Li Auto Inc. LI and XPeng Inc. XPEV.Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:Chinese Auto Sales on Fast Track - Will It Hit a Speed Bump?Vehicle sales in China for the month of March soared for the 12th straight month to 2.53 million units, per the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (“CAAM”). Sales spiked 75% from the corresponding period of 2020, when the country’s vehicle demand was badly hit by coronavirus woes.Digging Into Sales NumbersFor the first quarter of 2021, sales surged 76% year over year to top 6.48 million units. The massive jump was due to lower severity of COVID-19 impacts, which crimped showroom traffic in the comparable year-ago quarter.In fact, automakers in China suffered their bleakest ever quarter in the January-March 2020 period. However, thanks to supportive government policies, gradual reopening of economic activities and pent-up vehicle demand, China is now at the forefront of global auto market recovery.Deliveries of new light vehicles including sport utility vehicles, sedans and multi-purpose vehicles grew 77% to exceed 1.87 million units in March 2021. Deliveries of commercial vehicles including pickups and buses rose 68% year over year to 651,000 units. Electric vehicle sales jumped a whopping 240% year over year to 226,000 units.New light vehicle deliveries in first-quarter 2021 climbed 75% from the comparable year-ago period to 5.08 million units. Sales of commercial vehicles and EVs spiked 77% and 280% to 1.41 million units and 515,000 units, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.China EV Market on Fire, Competition Revs UpDemand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has been on the rise amid climate change concerns and favorable government policies. Importantly, the country projects electric vehicles (EVs) to account for 25% of new car sales by 2025.Last April, the government of China announced plans to extend subsidies and tax breaks for NEVs such as electric or plug-in hybrid cars for another two years to spur sales. Buoyed by favorable government policies and improving consumer confidence and economy, China — world’s largest EV market — is seeing solid sales of zero-emission vehicles.China-based EV makers includingBYD Co,NIO,Li AutoandXPengregistered strong EV sales last month. Warren Buffett-backed BYD sold 24,218 EVs in March, representing a year-over-year jump of 97.6%.NIO — which currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) — delivered 7,257 EVs last month, skyrocketing 373% year over year. EV makers Li Auto and XPeng delivered 4,900 and 5,102 vehicles, up a whopping 238.6% and 384%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. You can seethe complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Foreign carmakers includingTesla,GMandFordare also registering strong sales and actively ramping up operations in the country. Per China Passenger Car Association, EV behemoth Tesla sold 35,478 China-made cars last month. The company commands a huge market share in the EV market of China, thanks to robust production from the Shanghai Gigafactory.Overall vehicle sales by Ford and General Motors in China witnessed a year-over-year rally of 73% and 69%, respectively, for first-quarter 2021. General Motors is speeding up the development of advanced technologies in China to enable an all-electric future.The company’s next-generation EVs (across all brands) in China will be powered by Ultium Drive. It should be noted that the Cadillac LYRIQ SUV would be the first Ultium-powered vehicle to be rolled out in China at Auto Shanghai 2021 later this month.Importantly, Sales of Hong Guang mini-EV — under General Motors’ Wuling brand — exceeded 72,000 units in first-quarter 2021, retaining its position as the best-selling green vehicle in the country. Meanwhile, Ford is set to manufacture its electric Mustang Mach-E in China with its joint venture Changan Ford.Amid soaring demand, competition is heating up in the China EV market. Even with the subsidies ending in 2022, the e-mobility battle in China is getting fiercer by the day with new upstarts, legacy automakers and tech titans foraying into the space.A few days back, China’s leading smartphone maker Xiaomi announced that it is set to invest $10 billion in the development of EVs over the next 10 years. The company intends to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary with an initial investment of around $1.5 billion.Ride-hailing platform Didi Chuxing has also launched an EV unit and collaborated with BYD to develop EVs designed for its services. Telecom equipment giant Huawei Technology also aims to launch electric cars under its brand and may roll out a couple of models this year. Search engine behemoth Baidu also announced plans to launch an electric car business in January.Chip Deficit to Play SpoilsportWhile China’s vehicle sales have rebounded quite strongly, will the recovery sustain amid the global chip crunch? Well, CAAM has already warned that the chip shortage is set to adversely impact auto production in the nation in second-quarter 2021. The agency does not expect the shortfall to ease until the fourth quarter of this year.Although China is the largest auto market, it depends heavily on chip imports and is the largest buyer of semiconductors. Amid the chip shortfall, carmakers are scrambling to procure semiconductors, which are forcing them to undergo production cuts and idle factories. NIO shuttered operations for five days beginning Mar 29 due to microchip shortfall. Volvo Cars, owned by Geely Holdings, also halted production last month. In the absence of a quick solution to this chip problem, auto industry recovery in China may soon be losing steam.These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the PandemicThe COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"LI":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343394370,"gmtCreate":1617674599390,"gmtModify":1634297171496,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just 1000? I tot can be more","listText":"Just 1000? I tot can be more","text":"Just 1000? I tot can be more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343394370","repostId":"2125762048","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349041303,"gmtCreate":1617510073802,"gmtModify":1634520711647,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If this is the crash, please crash more.&nbsp;","listText":"If this is the crash, please crash more.&nbsp;","text":"If this is the crash, please crash more.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349041303","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350761352,"gmtCreate":1616290631576,"gmtModify":1634526494410,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very tempting&nbsp;","listText":"Very tempting&nbsp;","text":"Very tempting","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b52b5e8d15ac6980e23b6c30aee195d7","width":"1125","height":"3114"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350761352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":520,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325879763,"gmtCreate":1615889982252,"gmtModify":1703494529359,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bull come back bull","listText":"Bull come back bull","text":"Bull come back bull","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325879763","repostId":"1134955391","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317855754,"gmtCreate":1612438921778,"gmtModify":1703761879606,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">$Nokia Oyj(NOK)$</a>will the legend return to claims back its throne?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">$Nokia Oyj(NOK)$</a>will the legend return to claims back its throne?","text":"$Nokia Oyj(NOK)$will the legend return to claims back its throne?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317855754","repostId":"2108790331","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107104239,"gmtCreate":1620449275321,"gmtModify":1634198651709,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fly to Mars!","listText":"Fly to Mars!","text":"Fly to Mars!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107104239","repostId":"1122144051","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104606589,"gmtCreate":1620380481241,"gmtModify":1634205647736,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104606589","repostId":"1171540841","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104608611,"gmtCreate":1620380401433,"gmtModify":1634205648817,"author":{"id":"3573786450103912","authorId":"3573786450103912","name":"Keatz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9b7ee59cb880841cedfc6ffb49f187","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786450103912","idStr":"3573786450103912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is time to changes","listText":"Is time to changes","text":"Is time to changes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104608611","repostId":"1102574504","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}