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2021-04-20

[强]

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2021-03-28

Sad

Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技首日交易下跌</blockquote>

2021-03-27

Good read

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2021-05-01

When will I be able to buy 1 share [难过]

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2021-04-21

Bought low. Sell lower[喷血]

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2021-04-06

Can't wait for it

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2021-06-24

Like pls

The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>

2021-06-04

Yes

Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>

2021-04-17

Definitely

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2021-06-23

Buy both

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pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159761598","repostId":"1151394234","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125070508,"gmtCreate":1624638344804,"gmtModify":1633950166568,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice article","listText":"Nice article","text":"Nice article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125070508","repostId":"1116076888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116076888","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624612129,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1116076888?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 17:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Tesla stock is getting left in Ford's and GM's dust<blockquote>为什么特斯拉股票落入福特和通用汽车的尘埃中</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116076888","media":"cnn","summary":"New York Tesla had a stellar 2020: The electric car maker was added to the S&P 500 and the stock surged an electrifying 743%. But some investors have pulled the plug on the company lately.Tesla  shares are nearly 25% below their all-time high set earlier in the year, and down 2% for 2021 to date -— a time when traditional automakers are surging as they ramp up electric vehicle ambitions.It seems investors are a bit infatuated with these legacy Big 3 automakers as they look to rapidly expand thei","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)Tesla had a stellar 2020: The electric car maker was added to the S&amp;P 500 and the stock surged an electrifying 743%. But some investors have pulled the plug on the company lately.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN Business）特斯拉在 2020 年表现出色：这家电动汽车制造商被纳入标普500，股价飙升 743%。但最近一些投资者已经放弃了该公司。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (TSLA) shares are nearly 25% below their all-time high set earlier in the year, and down 2% for 2021 to date -— a time when traditional automakers are surging as they ramp up electric vehicle ambitions.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉 (TSLA) 股价比今年早些时候创下的历史高点低了近 25%，2021 年迄今已下跌 2%——此时传统汽车制造商正在加大电动汽车雄心，股价正在飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Ford (F) stock is up nearly 75%, putting it in the top 10 of the S&amp;P 500 in 2021. The company unveiled its electric F-150 Lightning truck last month and also told investors that it now expects electric vehicles to account for 40% of global sales by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>福特 (F) 股价上涨近 75%，跻身 2021 年标普500前 10 名。该公司上个月推出了电动 F-150 Lightning 卡车，并告诉投资者，目前预计到 2030 年电动汽车将占全球销量的 40%。</blockquote></p><p> And GM (GM) is up more than 40% as well. The Chevrolet, Buick and Cadillac maker said this month that it's looking to spend a whopping $35 billion on EVs by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车 (GM) 也上涨了 40% 以上。这家雪佛兰、别克和凯迪拉克制造商本月表示，计划到 2025 年在电动汽车上花费高达 350 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> It seems investors are a bit infatuated with these legacy Big 3 automakers as they look to rapidly expand their electric car offerings to catch up with Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>投资者似乎对这些传统的三大汽车制造商有点着迷，因为他们希望迅速扩大电动汽车产品，以赶上特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is still growing incredibly quickly. Analysts expect earnings per share to more than double this year and increase at an average rate of about 45% annually over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉仍在快速增长。分析师预计今年每股收益将翻一番以上，未来几年平均每年增长约 45%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Tesla is one of the most polarizing stocks on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>然而，特斯拉是华尔街两极分化最严重的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> According to Refinitiv, 14 analysts have the stock rated a \"buy,\" 13 a \"hold\" and 10 a \"sell.\" Contrast that with GM, which has 20 buy ratings, two holds and no sells.</p><p><blockquote>据 Refinitiv 称，14 位分析师将该股评级为“买入”，13 位分析师将其评级为“持有”，10 位分析师将其评级为“卖出”。相比之下，通用汽车有 20 个买入评级，2 个持有评级，没有卖出评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Skeptics have many questions about Tesla and Musk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怀疑论者对特斯拉和马斯克有很多疑问</b></blockquote></p><p> The consensus target price for Tesla stock from analysts is $652, about 6% lower than its current price.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对特斯拉股票的一致目标价为 652 美元，比当前价格低约 6%。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla critics have a pile of worries to point to. A notable short seller who was featured in \"The Big Short\" is betting against the company. Concerns about Tesla's management bench sprung up after longtime executive Jerome Guillen abruptly left earlier this month — especially since CEO Elon Musk is also busy running SpaceX.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的批评者有一堆担忧要指出。《大空头》中一位著名的卖空者正在做空该公司。在长期高管杰罗姆·吉伦本月早些时候突然离职后，人们对特斯拉管理层的担忧油然而生，特别是因为首席执行官埃隆·马斯克也忙于运营 SpaceX。</blockquote></p><p> And Musk's obsession with bitcoin and dogecoin, along with other extracurricular activities like hosting Saturday Night Live and constantly tweeting, might be a turnoff for some investors and analysts.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克对比特币和狗狗币的痴迷，以及主持《周六夜现场》和不断发推文等其他课外活动，可能会让一些投资者和分析师望而却步。</blockquote></p><p> Still, there is no denying that the company has plenty of ardent fans, and its vehicles have grabbed plenty of positive headlines this week alone.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，不可否认的是，该公司拥有大量狂热的粉丝，仅在本周，其车辆就占据了大量正面头条新闻。</blockquote></p><p> For example, Cars.com (CARS) announced earlier this week that Tesla's Model 3 was ranked first in its American-Made Index, which measures how much a vehicle contributes to the US economy based on factors such as domestic factory jobs, manufacturing plants and parts sourcing.</p><p><blockquote>例如，Cars.com (CARS) 本周早些时候宣布，特斯拉的 Model 3 在其美国制造指数中排名第一，该指数根据国内工厂就业、制造工厂和零部件采购等因素衡量汽车对美国经济的贡献程度。</blockquote></p><p> The Model 3 edged out Ford's Mustang for the top spot, and Tesla's Model Y also ranked third on the list. Shares of Tesla rallied more than 5% Wednesday following the news.</p><p><blockquote>Model 3 击败福特野马登顶，特斯拉 Model Y 也位居榜单第三。消息传出后，特斯拉股价周三上涨超过 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The stock gained even more ground Thursday after Musk tweeted the night before that Tesla investors might get preferential treatment to buy shares of SpaceX-owned Starlink if SpaceX eventually decides to spin off the satellite internet service in a few years.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克前一天晚上在推特上表示，如果 SpaceX 最终决定在几年内剥离卫星互联网服务，特斯拉投资者可能会获得购买 SpaceX 旗下 Starlink 股票的优惠待遇，该股周四进一步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> So even though Tesla's stock is still in the red this year, shares have quickly clawed back much of their 2021 losses after a more than 12% surge in the past five days.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管特斯拉的股价今年仍处于亏损状态，但在过去五天飙升超过 12% 后，该股已迅速收复 2021 年的大部分跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is nothing if not volatile.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉除了变化无常之外什么都不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Tesla stock is getting left in Ford's and GM's dust<blockquote>为什么特斯拉股票落入福特和通用汽车的尘埃中</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Tesla stock is getting left in Ford's and GM's dust<blockquote>为什么特斯拉股票落入福特和通用汽车的尘埃中</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-25 17:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)Tesla had a stellar 2020: The electric car maker was added to the S&amp;P 500 and the stock surged an electrifying 743%. But some investors have pulled the plug on the company lately.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN Business）特斯拉在 2020 年表现出色：这家电动汽车制造商被纳入标普500，股价飙升 743%。但最近一些投资者已经放弃了该公司。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (TSLA) shares are nearly 25% below their all-time high set earlier in the year, and down 2% for 2021 to date -— a time when traditional automakers are surging as they ramp up electric vehicle ambitions.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉 (TSLA) 股价比今年早些时候创下的历史高点低了近 25%，2021 年迄今已下跌 2%——此时传统汽车制造商正在加大电动汽车雄心，股价正在飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Ford (F) stock is up nearly 75%, putting it in the top 10 of the S&amp;P 500 in 2021. The company unveiled its electric F-150 Lightning truck last month and also told investors that it now expects electric vehicles to account for 40% of global sales by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>福特 (F) 股价上涨近 75%，跻身 2021 年标普500前 10 名。该公司上个月推出了电动 F-150 Lightning 卡车，并告诉投资者，目前预计到 2030 年电动汽车将占全球销量的 40%。</blockquote></p><p> And GM (GM) is up more than 40% as well. The Chevrolet, Buick and Cadillac maker said this month that it's looking to spend a whopping $35 billion on EVs by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车 (GM) 也上涨了 40% 以上。这家雪佛兰、别克和凯迪拉克制造商本月表示，计划到 2025 年在电动汽车上花费高达 350 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> It seems investors are a bit infatuated with these legacy Big 3 automakers as they look to rapidly expand their electric car offerings to catch up with Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>投资者似乎对这些传统的三大汽车制造商有点着迷，因为他们希望迅速扩大电动汽车产品，以赶上特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is still growing incredibly quickly. Analysts expect earnings per share to more than double this year and increase at an average rate of about 45% annually over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉仍在快速增长。分析师预计今年每股收益将翻一番以上，未来几年平均每年增长约 45%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Tesla is one of the most polarizing stocks on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>然而，特斯拉是华尔街两极分化最严重的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> According to Refinitiv, 14 analysts have the stock rated a \"buy,\" 13 a \"hold\" and 10 a \"sell.\" Contrast that with GM, which has 20 buy ratings, two holds and no sells.</p><p><blockquote>据 Refinitiv 称，14 位分析师将该股评级为“买入”，13 位分析师将其评级为“持有”，10 位分析师将其评级为“卖出”。相比之下，通用汽车有 20 个买入评级，2 个持有评级，没有卖出评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Skeptics have many questions about Tesla and Musk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怀疑论者对特斯拉和马斯克有很多疑问</b></blockquote></p><p> The consensus target price for Tesla stock from analysts is $652, about 6% lower than its current price.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对特斯拉股票的一致目标价为 652 美元，比当前价格低约 6%。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla critics have a pile of worries to point to. A notable short seller who was featured in \"The Big Short\" is betting against the company. Concerns about Tesla's management bench sprung up after longtime executive Jerome Guillen abruptly left earlier this month — especially since CEO Elon Musk is also busy running SpaceX.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的批评者有一堆担忧要指出。《大空头》中一位著名的卖空者正在做空该公司。在长期高管杰罗姆·吉伦本月早些时候突然离职后，人们对特斯拉管理层的担忧油然而生，特别是因为首席执行官埃隆·马斯克也忙于运营 SpaceX。</blockquote></p><p> And Musk's obsession with bitcoin and dogecoin, along with other extracurricular activities like hosting Saturday Night Live and constantly tweeting, might be a turnoff for some investors and analysts.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克对比特币和狗狗币的痴迷，以及主持《周六夜现场》和不断发推文等其他课外活动，可能会让一些投资者和分析师望而却步。</blockquote></p><p> Still, there is no denying that the company has plenty of ardent fans, and its vehicles have grabbed plenty of positive headlines this week alone.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，不可否认的是，该公司拥有大量狂热的粉丝，仅在本周，其车辆就占据了大量正面头条新闻。</blockquote></p><p> For example, Cars.com (CARS) announced earlier this week that Tesla's Model 3 was ranked first in its American-Made Index, which measures how much a vehicle contributes to the US economy based on factors such as domestic factory jobs, manufacturing plants and parts sourcing.</p><p><blockquote>例如，Cars.com (CARS) 本周早些时候宣布，特斯拉的 Model 3 在其美国制造指数中排名第一，该指数根据国内工厂就业、制造工厂和零部件采购等因素衡量汽车对美国经济的贡献程度。</blockquote></p><p> The Model 3 edged out Ford's Mustang for the top spot, and Tesla's Model Y also ranked third on the list. Shares of Tesla rallied more than 5% Wednesday following the news.</p><p><blockquote>Model 3 击败福特野马登顶，特斯拉 Model Y 也位居榜单第三。消息传出后，特斯拉股价周三上涨超过 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The stock gained even more ground Thursday after Musk tweeted the night before that Tesla investors might get preferential treatment to buy shares of SpaceX-owned Starlink if SpaceX eventually decides to spin off the satellite internet service in a few years.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克前一天晚上在推特上表示，如果 SpaceX 最终决定在几年内剥离卫星互联网服务，特斯拉投资者可能会获得购买 SpaceX 旗下 Starlink 股票的优惠待遇，该股周四进一步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> So even though Tesla's stock is still in the red this year, shares have quickly clawed back much of their 2021 losses after a more than 12% surge in the past five days.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管特斯拉的股价今年仍处于亏损状态，但在过去五天飙升超过 12% 后，该股已迅速收复 2021 年的大部分跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is nothing if not volatile.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉除了变化无常之外什么都不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/24/investing/tesla-stock-ford-gm/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/24/investing/tesla-stock-ford-gm/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116076888","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)Tesla had a stellar 2020: The electric car maker was added to the S&P 500 and the stock surged an electrifying 743%. But some investors have pulled the plug on the company lately.\nTesla (TSLA) shares are nearly 25% below their all-time high set earlier in the year, and down 2% for 2021 to date -— a time when traditional automakers are surging as they ramp up electric vehicle ambitions.\nFord (F) stock is up nearly 75%, putting it in the top 10 of the S&P 500 in 2021. The company unveiled its electric F-150 Lightning truck last month and also told investors that it now expects electric vehicles to account for 40% of global sales by 2030.\nAnd GM (GM) is up more than 40% as well. The Chevrolet, Buick and Cadillac maker said this month that it's looking to spend a whopping $35 billion on EVs by 2025.\nIt seems investors are a bit infatuated with these legacy Big 3 automakers as they look to rapidly expand their electric car offerings to catch up with Tesla.\nTesla is still growing incredibly quickly. Analysts expect earnings per share to more than double this year and increase at an average rate of about 45% annually over the next few years.\nYet Tesla is one of the most polarizing stocks on Wall Street.\nAccording to Refinitiv, 14 analysts have the stock rated a \"buy,\" 13 a \"hold\" and 10 a \"sell.\" Contrast that with GM, which has 20 buy ratings, two holds and no sells.\nSkeptics have many questions about Tesla and Musk\nThe consensus target price for Tesla stock from analysts is $652, about 6% lower than its current price.\nTesla critics have a pile of worries to point to. A notable short seller who was featured in \"The Big Short\" is betting against the company. Concerns about Tesla's management bench sprung up after longtime executive Jerome Guillen abruptly left earlier this month — especially since CEO Elon Musk is also busy running SpaceX.\nAnd Musk's obsession with bitcoin and dogecoin, along with other extracurricular activities like hosting Saturday Night Live and constantly tweeting, might be a turnoff for some investors and analysts.\nStill, there is no denying that the company has plenty of ardent fans, and its vehicles have grabbed plenty of positive headlines this week alone.\nFor example, Cars.com (CARS) announced earlier this week that Tesla's Model 3 was ranked first in its American-Made Index, which measures how much a vehicle contributes to the US economy based on factors such as domestic factory jobs, manufacturing plants and parts sourcing.\nThe Model 3 edged out Ford's Mustang for the top spot, and Tesla's Model Y also ranked third on the list. Shares of Tesla rallied more than 5% Wednesday following the news.\nThe stock gained even more ground Thursday after Musk tweeted the night before that Tesla investors might get preferential treatment to buy shares of SpaceX-owned Starlink if SpaceX eventually decides to spin off the satellite internet service in a few years.\nSo even though Tesla's stock is still in the red this year, shares have quickly clawed back much of their 2021 losses after a more than 12% surge in the past five days.\nTesla is nothing if not volatile.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126808691,"gmtCreate":1624549685913,"gmtModify":1634004475553,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126808691","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫情大趋势结束的 5 个原因。</b>COVID-19 大流行期间最大的投资故事之一是以 “郊区避难所 ”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装卖场再到家具家居用品商家，不少顶尖表现者都符合这一口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的先锋非必需消费品指数基金 ETF VCR 为例，该基金上涨 0.66%，从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 3 月飙升 90% 以上。这得益于家装股 Lowe's LOW（-0.30%）和 Home Depot HD（-0.33%）等成分股，以及 TJX TJX（-0.08%）等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名字的表现开始落后。事实上，自 4 月 1 日以来，我们已经看到这三只股票都小幅飘红，即使标普500 SPX 指数同期上涨了约 6%，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些恐惧可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的家居类股票即将 “大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些大牌 “郊区 ”行业仍相对稳定，但边缘地区已经出现了麻烦的迹象。Century Communities CCS（-0.34%）和Dream Finders Homes DFH（-2.55%）是两家中型单户住宅建筑商，其股价在过去一个月暴跌了两位数。在家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR（-0.51%）和百货公司Nordstrom JWN（+2.03%）从春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五个主要原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们注意到了逾期的项目，并利用能够轻松地与承包商会面的优势。但在很多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑房主正在进行的购买类型。水龙头、橱柜甚至马桶都是2020年最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循这种每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月创下了相关网站历史上最高的访问量，有1.33亿网民购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或灯具不是每年都要买的——所以这种趋势似乎不可持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>说到大流行后家居用品供应商的高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过提高利润和销售额来承受这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更厉害--它们的估值超出了历史常态。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过 26，而 2020 年春季的远期市盈率仅为 21。其历史市销率目前为 2.1，而之前为 1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX 等昔日宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为 22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货 M, +0.70% 和 Big Lots Big, -3.71% 的远期市盈率实际上远低于 10。当然，你可以说 TJX 是独一无二的.但你可能也想知道，目前除了时尚的居家交易之外，许多其他股票的 “公允价值 ”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票未来从疫情推动的峰值增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外航运延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但 “宅在家里 ”的股票似乎受到的打击尤为严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的数据，大约 94% 的建筑商表示 “至少存在一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺少框架木材，87%的人说很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你能摆脱需求担忧，如果没有原材料来生产，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有花钱买承包商，也没有接受昂贵的新家具长期延误的人来说，现在有一个相当大的阻碍因素会阻碍新购物者：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>以消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本在5月份上涨了0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏天以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它已经侵蚀了购买力，并可能削减我们在过去一年左右看到的 “宅在家里 ”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通胀：5月份，美国房屋的中位数价格有史以来首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨了23.6%。此外，Realtor.com 的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的出售房主希望获得高于要价的价格，大约同样数量的房主希望在挂牌一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，许多文章都在谈论有吸引力的市场供应短缺的问题，重要的是要承认，大流行病的远程工作确实让人们对人们为何生活在这样的地方进行了一些颠覆性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但问题就出在这里： 已经提前支付了房价预期溢价的房主。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当时类似的卖家权利？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主确实有可能对自己的房屋价值过于乐观--而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款很可能根本无法持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 18:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫情大趋势结束的 5 个原因。</b>COVID-19 大流行期间最大的投资故事之一是以 “郊区避难所 ”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装卖场再到家具家居用品商家，不少顶尖表现者都符合这一口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的先锋非必需消费品指数基金 ETF VCR 为例，该基金上涨 0.66%，从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 3 月飙升 90% 以上。这得益于家装股 Lowe's LOW（-0.30%）和 Home Depot HD（-0.33%）等成分股，以及 TJX TJX（-0.08%）等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名字的表现开始落后。事实上，自 4 月 1 日以来，我们已经看到这三只股票都小幅飘红，即使标普500 SPX 指数同期上涨了约 6%，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些恐惧可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的家居类股票即将 “大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些大牌 “郊区 ”行业仍相对稳定，但边缘地区已经出现了麻烦的迹象。Century Communities CCS（-0.34%）和Dream Finders Homes DFH（-2.55%）是两家中型单户住宅建筑商，其股价在过去一个月暴跌了两位数。在家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR（-0.51%）和百货公司Nordstrom JWN（+2.03%）从春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五个主要原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们注意到了逾期的项目，并利用能够轻松地与承包商会面的优势。但在很多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑房主正在进行的购买类型。水龙头、橱柜甚至马桶都是2020年最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循这种每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月创下了相关网站历史上最高的访问量，有1.33亿网民购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或灯具不是每年都要买的——所以这种趋势似乎不可持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>说到大流行后家居用品供应商的高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过提高利润和销售额来承受这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更厉害--它们的估值超出了历史常态。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过 26，而 2020 年春季的远期市盈率仅为 21。其历史市销率目前为 2.1，而之前为 1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX 等昔日宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为 22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货 M, +0.70% 和 Big Lots Big, -3.71% 的远期市盈率实际上远低于 10。当然，你可以说 TJX 是独一无二的.但你可能也想知道，目前除了时尚的居家交易之外，许多其他股票的 “公允价值 ”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票未来从疫情推动的峰值增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外航运延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但 “宅在家里 ”的股票似乎受到的打击尤为严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的数据，大约 94% 的建筑商表示 “至少存在一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺少框架木材，87%的人说很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你能摆脱需求担忧，如果没有原材料来生产，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有花钱买承包商，也没有接受昂贵的新家具长期延误的人来说，现在有一个相当大的阻碍因素会阻碍新购物者：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>以消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本在5月份上涨了0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏天以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它已经侵蚀了购买力，并可能削减我们在过去一年左右看到的 “宅在家里 ”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通胀：5月份，美国房屋的中位数价格有史以来首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨了23.6%。此外，Realtor.com 的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的出售房主希望获得高于要价的价格，大约同样数量的房主希望在挂牌一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，许多文章都在谈论有吸引力的市场供应短缺的问题，重要的是要承认，大流行病的远程工作确实让人们对人们为何生活在这样的地方进行了一些颠覆性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但问题就出在这里： 已经提前支付了房价预期溢价的房主。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当时类似的卖家权利？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主确实有可能对自己的房屋价值过于乐观--而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款很可能根本无法持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121607610,"gmtCreate":1624460585330,"gmtModify":1634005772805,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy both","listText":"Buy both","text":"Buy both","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121607610","repostId":"1145825451","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129568612,"gmtCreate":1624377911636,"gmtModify":1634006990286,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129568612","repostId":"1169498109","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120020441,"gmtCreate":1624288925083,"gmtModify":1634008308728,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[难过]&nbsp;","listText":"[难过]&nbsp;","text":"[难过]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120020441","repostId":"1133913488","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133913488","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624283796,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1133913488?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 21:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nomura Warns Of Market \"Reversal Risk\" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储发言收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133913488","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warnstraders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week-especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead......which is notable in that bothTreasury Yields and Equities are already s","content":"<p>After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns<b>traders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week</b>-<i>especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...</i></p><p><blockquote>继上周市场对美联储 “鹰派惊喜 ”和吉姆-布拉德（Jim Bullard）周五上午发表的 “你认为那是鹰派，拿着我的啤酒 ”的言论之后，野村证券（Nomura）的查理-麦切利戈特（Charlie McElligott）警告说：“政策错误”。<b>交易员现在需要为本周可能出现的 “言论逆转 ”做好准备</b>-<i>尤其是当我们看到一个惊人的十六（!）美联储发言人在未来的日历上……</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9c98ddf2dc1b15c2d57d8c2421a348\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>...which is notable in that both</i><i><b>Treasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows</b></i><i>...</i></p><p><blockquote><i>值得注意的是</i><i><b>美国国债收益率和股市已大幅高于亚洲重新开盘低点</b></i><i>...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d6b2b76cf82953faef9bf5fab63418\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which McElligott warns,<b>risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,”</b>&nbsp;particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities,&nbsp;<i>after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week</i>&nbsp;(Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)</p><p><blockquote>麦克埃利戈特警告说，<b>风险可能会造成逆势逆转，这可能会让许多人再次措手不及。从战术上讲，美联储任何退缩的迹象都可能引发 “再通胀 ”的前景。</b>特别是如果美元在此基础上进一步走弱，实际收益率将再次向负倾斜，UST曲线将在上周引人注目的清算/止损之后再次 “熊市陡峭”--这也可能引发美国股市此前 “周期价值高于长期增长 ”趋势的同时反弹，<i>在上述表达式上周被强烈扣除后</i>（纳斯达克上周+0.4%，罗素-4.1%）</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Equities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>上周股市“再膨胀”：野村10年期收益率敏感因子-4.6%；循环价值因子-3.5%；增长预测-3.1%；LT动量-3.1%；沃尔夫狂热价值-2.7%；防御值 -2.4%</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Equities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>上周股票“持续时间”：IG信用敏感因子+2.7%；高频拥挤+2.2%；低风险+2.0%；尺寸（大-小）+1.3%；股息 +1.0%</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>This is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought</b><i>-</i>an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility,&nbsp;<b>ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是 “不惜一切代价维持宽松金融环境 ”的不言而喻的 “美联储第三项任务 ”所造成的后果</b><i>-</i>这是一个荒谬的循环，美联储政策和美国经济实际上会发挥作用，以至于在 “旧 ”央行中，美联储会相应地转向 “鹰派 ”并开始收紧政策；但在 “美联储看跌 ”的世界秩序中，市场力量现在推动了上述 “紧缩 ”的负面经济放缓影响，并产生了 “缩减收缩发脾气 ”，造成了市场波动、<b>如果市场发生变化，最终迫使美联储收回鹰派基调。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca8c1b6e282ef937647386ccbcdc21b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this case,<b>the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -</b><i>i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!</i></p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，<b>本周的风险变成了，美联储非常活跃的发言人日程表中的一部分人现在将表达一种 “担忧”，即上周的点阵图和 SEP 将违背他们之前陈述的事实愿望，阻碍未来的增长和通胀预期，然后可能会传达这些预测有多 “有条件”的信息。</b><i>即淡化他们的预测能力，试图扭转市场对 “金融环境收紧 ”的一些预期，因为美联储认为 “鹰派转向 ”会抵消他们之前重置未来通胀预期的努力!</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72edd0892cdcb8696310f135ba5dec38\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed<b><i>- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前无数次看到的那样，如果美联储再次向市场力量“屈服”，那么vol飙升和对风险资产的强制去杠杆化/对冲就会逆转，“丰富的vol”随后被抛售。按照标准的滞后模式，这意味着随着rVol在预期的“美联储回调”之后重置更低，随着vol被打破，大量动态对冲（空头）和/或来自“目标波动性/vol控制”领域的风险资产敞口的机械再杠杆化将使市场恢复上涨。<b><i>- “崩溃，然后崩溃”冲洗/重复。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> To further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics,&nbsp;<b>we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex&nbsp;</b><b><i>(although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).</i></b></p><p><blockquote>为了进一步有助于这些潜在的“弹射”（撞击下降，然后撞击）光学器件，<b>在上周异常超额的 Op-Ex 之后，我们现在自然而然地看到了更“干净”的期权定位（当前 ES 为 4167，这是 “Delta 中性与现货”水平）。</b><b><i>(不过值得注意的是，我们现在处于 “短伽马 vs 现货 ”区域，最后 4167 对 4237 “伽马中性 ”线）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8e096623b51035a7813c45b7dc2b02\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>And in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd&nbsp;</b><b><i>(particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk),</i></b><b>&nbsp;this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves</b>- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.</p><p><blockquote><b>如果 VRP 人群将 “鹰派美联储惊喜 ”的增量飙升卖给了交易商。</b><b><i>（特别是本周任何“美联储回归”的迹象），</i></b><b>此后，这种波动性和伽马的脉冲供应将再次延续一个更加稳定、绝缘的市场，因为交易商的“长伽马”意味着对冲流量将进一步抑制市场波动的潜力</b>-因此，“销量”反馈循环的良性循环阶段。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nomura Warns Of Market \"Reversal Risk\" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储发言收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNomura Warns Of Market \"Reversal Risk\" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储发言收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns<b>traders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week</b>-<i>especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...</i></p><p><blockquote>继上周市场对美联储 “鹰派惊喜 ”和吉姆-布拉德（Jim Bullard）周五上午发表的 “你认为那是鹰派，拿着我的啤酒 ”的言论之后，野村证券（Nomura）的查理-麦切利戈特（Charlie McElligott）警告说：“政策错误”。<b>交易员现在需要为本周可能出现的 “言论逆转 ”做好准备</b>-<i>尤其是当我们看到一个惊人的十六（!）美联储发言人在未来的日历上……</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9c98ddf2dc1b15c2d57d8c2421a348\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>...which is notable in that both</i><i><b>Treasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows</b></i><i>...</i></p><p><blockquote><i>值得注意的是</i><i><b>美国国债收益率和股市已大幅高于亚洲重新开盘低点</b></i><i>...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d6b2b76cf82953faef9bf5fab63418\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which McElligott warns,<b>risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,”</b>&nbsp;particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities,&nbsp;<i>after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week</i>&nbsp;(Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)</p><p><blockquote>麦克埃利戈特警告说，<b>风险可能会造成逆势逆转，这可能会让许多人再次措手不及。从战术上讲，美联储任何退缩的迹象都可能引发 “再通胀 ”的前景。</b>特别是如果美元在此基础上进一步走弱，实际收益率将再次向负倾斜，UST曲线将在上周引人注目的清算/止损之后再次 “熊市陡峭”--这也可能引发美国股市此前 “周期价值高于长期增长 ”趋势的同时反弹，<i>在上述表达式上周被强烈扣除后</i>（纳斯达克上周+0.4%，罗素-4.1%）</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Equities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>上周股市“再膨胀”：野村10年期收益率敏感因子-4.6%；循环价值因子-3.5%；增长预测-3.1%；LT动量-3.1%；沃尔夫狂热价值-2.7%；防御值 -2.4%</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Equities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>上周股票“持续时间”：IG信用敏感因子+2.7%；高频拥挤+2.2%；低风险+2.0%；尺寸（大-小）+1.3%；股息 +1.0%</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>This is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought</b><i>-</i>an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility,&nbsp;<b>ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是 “不惜一切代价维持宽松金融环境 ”的不言而喻的 “美联储第三项任务 ”所造成的后果</b><i>-</i>这是一个荒谬的循环，美联储政策和美国经济实际上会发挥作用，以至于在 “旧 ”央行中，美联储会相应地转向 “鹰派 ”并开始收紧政策；但在 “美联储看跌 ”的世界秩序中，市场力量现在推动了上述 “紧缩 ”的负面经济放缓影响，并产生了 “缩减收缩发脾气 ”，造成了市场波动、<b>如果市场发生变化，最终迫使美联储收回鹰派基调。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca8c1b6e282ef937647386ccbcdc21b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this case,<b>the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -</b><i>i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!</i></p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，<b>本周的风险变成了，美联储非常活跃的发言人日程表中的一部分人现在将表达一种 “担忧”，即上周的点阵图和 SEP 将违背他们之前陈述的事实愿望，阻碍未来的增长和通胀预期，然后可能会传达这些预测有多 “有条件”的信息。</b><i>即淡化他们的预测能力，试图扭转市场对 “金融环境收紧 ”的一些预期，因为美联储认为 “鹰派转向 ”会抵消他们之前重置未来通胀预期的努力!</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72edd0892cdcb8696310f135ba5dec38\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed<b><i>- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前无数次看到的那样，如果美联储再次向市场力量“屈服”，那么vol飙升和对风险资产的强制去杠杆化/对冲就会逆转，“丰富的vol”随后被抛售。按照标准的滞后模式，这意味着随着rVol在预期的“美联储回调”之后重置更低，随着vol被打破，大量动态对冲（空头）和/或来自“目标波动性/vol控制”领域的风险资产敞口的机械再杠杆化将使市场恢复上涨。<b><i>- “崩溃，然后崩溃”冲洗/重复。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> To further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics,&nbsp;<b>we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex&nbsp;</b><b><i>(although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).</i></b></p><p><blockquote>为了进一步有助于这些潜在的“弹射”（撞击下降，然后撞击）光学器件，<b>在上周异常超额的 Op-Ex 之后，我们现在自然而然地看到了更“干净”的期权定位（当前 ES 为 4167，这是 “Delta 中性与现货”水平）。</b><b><i>(不过值得注意的是，我们现在处于 “短伽马 vs 现货 ”区域，最后 4167 对 4237 “伽马中性 ”线）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8e096623b51035a7813c45b7dc2b02\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>And in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd&nbsp;</b><b><i>(particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk),</i></b><b>&nbsp;this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves</b>- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.</p><p><blockquote><b>如果 VRP 人群将 “鹰派美联储惊喜 ”的增量飙升卖给了交易商。</b><b><i>（特别是本周任何“美联储回归”的迹象），</i></b><b>此后，这种波动性和伽马的脉冲供应将再次延续一个更加稳定、绝缘的市场，因为交易商的“长伽马”意味着对冲流量将进一步抑制市场波动的潜力</b>-因此，“销量”反馈循环的良性循环阶段。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-market-reversal-risk-fedspeak-walks-back-bulard-bomb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-market-reversal-risk-fedspeak-walks-back-bulard-bomb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133913488","content_text":"After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warnstraders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week-especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...\n...which is notable in that bothTreasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows...\nWhich McElligott warns,risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,” particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities, after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week (Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)\n\nEquities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%\nEquities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%\n\nThis is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought-an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility, ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.\nIn this case,the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!\nAnd as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.\nTo further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics, we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex (although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).\n\nAnd in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd (particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk), this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2971,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":165842819,"gmtCreate":1624119529631,"gmtModify":1634010529036,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165842819","repostId":"2144086770","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168005915,"gmtCreate":1623942654337,"gmtModify":1634025501176,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[眼眼]&nbsp;","listText":"[眼眼]&nbsp;","text":"[眼眼]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168005915","repostId":"1137716821","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137716821","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623940600,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137716821?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 22:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"With Fed Seeing Higher Inflation, Growth Stocks Could be In The Spotlight Today<blockquote>随着美联储看到通胀上升，成长型股票今天可能成为焦点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137716821","media":"benzinga","summary":"It seems that the market debate about whether inflation is truly temporary or could be more lingerin","content":"<p><div> It seems that the market debate about whether inflation is truly temporary or could be more lingering has heated up a bit. The Fed added more fuel to that fire by raising its inflation expectations ...</p><p><blockquote><div>市场关于通胀是真正暂时的还是可能更持久的争论似乎有所升温。美联储通过提高通胀预期火上浇油……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/06/21608060/with-fed-seeing-higher-inflation-growth-stocks-could-be-in-the-spotlight-today\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/06/21608060/with-fed-seeing-higher-inflation-growth-stocks-could-be-in-the-spotlight-today\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With Fed Seeing Higher Inflation, Growth Stocks Could be In The Spotlight Today<blockquote>随着美联储看到通胀上升，成长型股票今天可能成为焦点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith Fed Seeing Higher Inflation, Growth Stocks Could be In The Spotlight Today<blockquote>随着美联储看到通胀上升，成长型股票今天可能成为焦点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 22:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> It seems that the market debate about whether inflation is truly temporary or could be more lingering has heated up a bit. The Fed added more fuel to that fire by raising its inflation expectations ...</p><p><blockquote><div>市场关于通胀是真正暂时的还是可能更持久的争论似乎有所升温。美联储通过提高通胀预期火上浇油……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/06/21608060/with-fed-seeing-higher-inflation-growth-stocks-could-be-in-the-spotlight-today\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/06/21608060/with-fed-seeing-higher-inflation-growth-stocks-could-be-in-the-spotlight-today\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/06/21608060/with-fed-seeing-higher-inflation-growth-stocks-could-be-in-the-spotlight-today\">benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LEN":"莱纳建筑公司","TSLA":"特斯拉","KR":"克罗格"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/06/21608060/with-fed-seeing-higher-inflation-growth-stocks-could-be-in-the-spotlight-today","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137716821","content_text":"It seems that the market debate about whether inflation is truly temporary or could be more lingering has heated up a bit.\nThe Fed added more fuel to that fire by raising its inflation expectations for this year but still saying it thinks inflation is “transitory.” This argument may also further another tussle that’s been going on in the market—growth versus value—with growth stocks perhaps continuing to be a little worse for wear amid worries about inflation eating away at future earnings prospects.\nBut really we’re still just in the follow-up mode to the Fed’s announcement, and the selling hasn’t been that bad. There certainly hasn’t been any panic. Chair Jerome Powell did say to take the dot plot with a “big grain of salt.” Also the central bank didn’t say when it would start tapering its bond purchases, with Powell calling this month’s meeting the “talking about talking about” one.\nSo all in all, a big takeaway was that the Fed may be engaging in one of those summer traditions of easing cautiously into cold water while still trying to keep its swimsuit dry. While the market wasn’t particularly warm to what the Fed had to say, it’s not like the bottom fell out.\nIn earnings news this morning, grocery giant Kroger rung up solid earnings, raised full-year guidance, and announced a billion-dollar stock buyback … and shares were near unchanged in premarket trading. As we’ve seen in recent days, retailers can have a hard time impressing investors in the post-Covid world. Shares of homebuilder Lennar are pointing green after releasing better-than-expected earnings and offering up some positive words on the demand outlook. Remember: Homebuilders have had a tough time navigating the pandemic, with low-interest rates and high demand countered by soaring costs of labor, raw materials, and building supplies.\nAnother stock in the green—literally and figuratively—is Ford , which issued strong Q2 guidance ahead of the Deutsche Bank Auto Conference. Shares of F, which are up more than 70% this year, soared another 3% ahead of the open. F and rival U.S. automaker General MotorsGM 0.91%have grabbed the headlines in recent days amid plans to shift electric vehicle production into high gear.\nA (Somewhat) Jarring Jolt\nYesterday, stock indices quickly fell to session lows when the Fed issued projections showing much better chances of a rate hike next year. It also raised its inflation growth estimate for this year pretty sharply.\nThese moves led to thoughts among analysts that a taper of the Fed’s $120 billion a month bond-buying program might start by late this year or early next, though the Fed is sticking by it for now.\nSeven members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) now expect at least one rate hike next year, up from four who did at the Fed’s March meeting. Also, 13 FOMC members expect rates to rise in 2023, up from seven in March. The meeting basically seems to indicate we can expect a rate hike possibly by late 2023, rather than the 2024 timing projected after the March meeting.\nBut stocks did recover somewhat yesterday, and the laggard Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) was able to regain the 34,000 mark when all was said and done.\nIs It Worth A Taper Tantrum?\nEven though really-cheap-money may be coming to an end sooner than some had expected, it doesn’t seem like the present situation is anything to go too crazy over. It’s unclear if the Fed will really change course until we get a handle on employment and some of the government subsidies start to dry up. Last week’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report showed a historically high level of job openings. It’s hard to imagine the Fed getting too hawkish while all those jobs are left to be filled.\nThe Fed’s actual press release didn’t change all that much from March. It did say the country is making progress on vaccinations, easing the crisis. There was no change in its asset purchase language and its aiming for inflation above 2% for some time. Even though the Fed raised its inflation projection, it continues to say inflation is “transitory.”\nFed officials continue to cite short-term supply bottlenecks caused by sharp increases in demand as the economy reopens following the pandemic. The supply shortages, they say, will fade as the year continues. Let’s hope they’re right.\nCHART OF THE DAY: IN TANDEM:The US dollar index ($DXY—purple line) and 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (TNX—candlestick) both popped nicely on the Fed news yesterday. It seems that the central bank may be a little more hawkish than many market participants were expecting at this juncture. Data source: Intercontinental Exchange, Cboe Global Markets. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.\nESG Debt Accelerating:It’s not your grandfather’s market. There is still a place in many investor portfolios for companies where the bottom line is, well, the bottom line. But investing in line with environmental, social, and governance goals has taken hold in the minds of many investors. This so-called ESG investing is not only associated with stock, but also bonds. Research company BloombergNEF this month reported that money borrowed for ESG purposes has surpassed $3 trillion.\nThat sustainable debt milestone “highlights the rapid growth this once-niche corner of investing has seen lately, with the most recent trillion dollars issued in just the last eight months,” the research company said. It took almost 12 years to reach the $1 trillion mark since sustainable debt labeling began and less than two years to reach the second trillion, according to BloombergNEF.\nCharging Up:Continuing with the sustainability theme, it may seem that Tesla dominates the headlines for electric vehicles, but the company is facing increased competition from both electric vehicle upstarts like Kandi Technologies Group , Li Auto , and NIO but also from traditional automakers like General Motors and Ford . Indeed, BloombergNEF this month released its latest annual Electric Vehicle Outlook that says even with no additional policy measures global sales of zero-emission cars will rise from 4% of the market in 2020 to 70% by 2040, led by China, the United States and European economies.\nCatching The Bus:But the electric vehicle push also offers investors opportunities beyond cars. The BloombergNEF EV outlook sees global sales of zero-emission buses rising to 83%, light commercial vehicles to 60%, and medium and heavy commercial vehicles to just over 30% of their respective markets by 2040. In recent related news, a California program that provides cash vouchers to reduce the purchase price for operators of electric commercial vehicles recently said enough funding has been requested to fund more than 900 vehicles, and more funds will be available in August. One company that could benefit is Lion Electric . According to research from BMO Capital Markets, the West Coast state is the largest target market for the company’s electric school buses and trucks.\n“We understand Lion has applied for a few vouchers for customers with results to be determined within weeks,” a BMO research note said. “These could represent some orders toward what Lion needs to secure over the next 18 months to achieve our 2022 sales projection for 2,475 vehicles.” Just as with the proliferation of electric car makers, there also are a growing number of companies involved in heavier electric vehicles, including LEV, ArrivalARVL 6.42%, BYD Co. (OTCMKTS: BYDDY), Nikola Corp. . And yes, lest we forget, TSLA has been working on an electric semi-truck for years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KR":0.9,"LEN":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":169246661,"gmtCreate":1623840224653,"gmtModify":1634027300543,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Careful everyone","listText":"Careful everyone","text":"Careful everyone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169246661","repostId":"1105866425","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183533764,"gmtCreate":1623335149458,"gmtModify":1634034433268,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Coinbase to the moon","listText":"Coinbase to the moon","text":"Coinbase to the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183533764","repostId":"1119957571","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112005622,"gmtCreate":1622822158066,"gmtModify":1634097623796,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112005622","repostId":"1154529120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154529120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622810459,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1154529120?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 20:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154529120","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:. Alibaba Group'","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险并存，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以当前相当低的估值购买的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 efetova/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了高增长的中国消费市场的机会。同时，通过一系列的创业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在额外的行业，比如云计算。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。看到股价上涨至 500 美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这在短期内不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自首次公开募股以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但还应该提到的是，2020 年下半年股价确实下跌，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服的 IPO 计划被叫停，2020 年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价现在基本与一年前持平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在那段时间内继续取得强劲的业绩。例如，上一季度阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，约为50%。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴财报发布中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于年化用户增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW还设法将其 EBITDA 同比增长 25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管对评级管理关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但仍实现了这一目标。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，营业收入增长速度更快，经阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款调整后，营业收入同比增长 48%。我认为，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的，以便更清楚地了解阿里巴巴平均一个季度的潜在“核心”盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技公司而言，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是由于投资者情绪疲软导致中国风险敞口和对监管的担忧导致的多重压缩的结果。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前 220 美元的价格计算，与目前分析师一致的目标价 298 美元相比，阿里巴巴的股价有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨 35%。分析师目标价通常以 1 年为期限发布，因此，如果分析师社区是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项很好的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个价格目标似乎一点也不离谱，因为 298 美元相当于今年预期净利润的约 29 倍，或明年净利润的 23 倍。当我们谈论 2022 年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你看的是12个月的窗口，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从长远来看，那么 500 美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能达到的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为 20 美元，并且市盈率为 25，那么股票的交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 25 美元，市盈率为 20 倍，那么股票交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 17 美元，交易价格为净利润的 29 倍，那么股价将（略低于）500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有许多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收入就越低。这反过来意味着价格目标可以更快实现，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们查看阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为 30-40 倍，相对于目前的股票估值（约为今年收益的 20 倍），其交易价格显然大幅溢价。我认为目前的估值太低了，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到 30 倍、35 倍甚至 40 倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股票估值可能会更低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，股票确实有一些估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设股票未来的交易价格是净利润的23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大盘股的估值相比，也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊 (AMZN) 的交易价格是今年市盈率的 59 倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用 23 倍市盈率使阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为 21.70 美元。什么时候会是这样？在下图中，我们看到了今年、明年（2022 财年）和 2023 财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW到 2023 年将无法实现每股 22 美元的盈利，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到 2023 年每股收益会增长 100% 以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约 27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约 1.5 年的时间才能将每股收益从 15.20 美元（2023 年估计）增长到我们的目标 21.70 美元。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024 年和 2025 年的增长率仅为 20%，到 2025 年底，每股收益也可能达到 21.70 美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到 2025 年底（即 4.5 年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能达到 500 美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要高市盈率——我相信，在净利润的 23 倍下，阿里巴巴-SW不会很贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守，假设 2023 年每股收益预测过高 10%，并且 2023 年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长 17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年 27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW 2026 年的每股收益将达到 21.70 美元，未来 5.5 年内股价将升至 500 美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来 5.5 年内股价从当前水平上涨 130%，年化回报率为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结这一部分，我会说<i>是的，爸爸可以达到 500 美元</i>——但实际上这需要几年时间。到 2020 年代中期，这对我来说似乎是一个非常容易实现的目标，尽管当然，没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司从多个长期宏观趋势中实现了强劲的增长和利润，例如中国不断增长的消费者支出、不断增长的电子商务市场份额和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能是一个非常有益的游戏的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个有力选择。我属于后一类，因此以当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将有显着上涨空间。然而，根据你的风险承受能力以及你如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，你可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 20:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险并存，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以当前相当低的估值购买的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 efetova/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了高增长的中国消费市场的机会。同时，通过一系列的创业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在额外的行业，比如云计算。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。看到股价上涨至 500 美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这在短期内不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自首次公开募股以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但还应该提到的是，2020 年下半年股价确实下跌，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服的 IPO 计划被叫停，2020 年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价现在基本与一年前持平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在那段时间内继续取得强劲的业绩。例如，上一季度阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，约为50%。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴财报发布中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于年化用户增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW还设法将其 EBITDA 同比增长 25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管对评级管理关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但仍实现了这一目标。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，营业收入增长速度更快，经阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款调整后，营业收入同比增长 48%。我认为，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的，以便更清楚地了解阿里巴巴平均一个季度的潜在“核心”盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技公司而言，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是由于投资者情绪疲软导致中国风险敞口和对监管的担忧导致的多重压缩的结果。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前 220 美元的价格计算，与目前分析师一致的目标价 298 美元相比，阿里巴巴的股价有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨 35%。分析师目标价通常以 1 年为期限发布，因此，如果分析师社区是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项很好的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个价格目标似乎一点也不离谱，因为 298 美元相当于今年预期净利润的约 29 倍，或明年净利润的 23 倍。当我们谈论 2022 年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你看的是12个月的窗口，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从长远来看，那么 500 美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能达到的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为 20 美元，并且市盈率为 25，那么股票的交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 25 美元，市盈率为 20 倍，那么股票交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 17 美元，交易价格为净利润的 29 倍，那么股价将（略低于）500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有许多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收入就越低。这反过来意味着价格目标可以更快实现，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们查看阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为 30-40 倍，相对于目前的股票估值（约为今年收益的 20 倍），其交易价格显然大幅溢价。我认为目前的估值太低了，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到 30 倍、35 倍甚至 40 倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股票估值可能会更低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，股票确实有一些估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设股票未来的交易价格是净利润的23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大盘股的估值相比，也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊 (AMZN) 的交易价格是今年市盈率的 59 倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用 23 倍市盈率使阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为 21.70 美元。什么时候会是这样？在下图中，我们看到了今年、明年（2022 财年）和 2023 财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW到 2023 年将无法实现每股 22 美元的盈利，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到 2023 年每股收益会增长 100% 以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约 27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约 1.5 年的时间才能将每股收益从 15.20 美元（2023 年估计）增长到我们的目标 21.70 美元。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024 年和 2025 年的增长率仅为 20%，到 2025 年底，每股收益也可能达到 21.70 美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到 2025 年底（即 4.5 年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能达到 500 美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要高市盈率——我相信，在净利润的 23 倍下，阿里巴巴-SW不会很贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守，假设 2023 年每股收益预测过高 10%，并且 2023 年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长 17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年 27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW 2026 年的每股收益将达到 21.70 美元，未来 5.5 年内股价将升至 500 美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来 5.5 年内股价从当前水平上涨 130%，年化回报率为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结这一部分，我会说<i>是的，爸爸可以达到 500 美元</i>——但实际上这需要几年时间。到 2020 年代中期，这对我来说似乎是一个非常容易实现的目标，尽管当然，没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司从多个长期宏观趋势中实现了强劲的增长和利润，例如中国不断增长的消费者支出、不断增长的电子商务市场份额和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能是一个非常有益的游戏的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个有力选择。我属于后一类，因此以当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将有显着上涨空间。然而，根据你的风险承受能力以及你如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，你可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154529120","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.\nI believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.\nIn the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.\n\nPhoto by efetova/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAlibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.\nBABA Stock Price\nSince its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:\nData byYCharts\nShares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.\nAlibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and fears about regulation.\nAt its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500?\nThe answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.\nWe see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:\nData byYCharts\nAt 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.\nI still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.\nIf we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:\nData byYCharts\nIf analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.\nData byYCharts\nAnalysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.\nWe can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.\nSo, to sum this section up, I'd sayyes, BABA can hit $500-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.\nIs Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAlibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.\nFor those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112002225,"gmtCreate":1622822102067,"gmtModify":1634097624380,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Probably&nbsp;","listText":"Probably&nbsp;","text":"Probably","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112002225","repostId":"1154529120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154529120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622810459,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1154529120?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 20:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154529120","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:. Alibaba Group'","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险并存，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以当前相当低的估值购买的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 efetova/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了高增长的中国消费市场的机会。同时，通过一系列的创业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在额外的行业，比如云计算。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。看到股价上涨至 500 美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这在短期内不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自首次公开募股以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但还应该提到的是，2020 年下半年股价确实下跌，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服的 IPO 计划被叫停，2020 年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价现在基本与一年前持平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在那段时间内继续取得强劲的业绩。例如，上一季度阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，约为50%。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴财报发布中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于年化用户增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW还设法将其 EBITDA 同比增长 25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管对评级管理关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但仍实现了这一目标。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，营业收入增长速度更快，经阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款调整后，营业收入同比增长 48%。我认为，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的，以便更清楚地了解阿里巴巴平均一个季度的潜在“核心”盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技公司而言，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是由于投资者情绪疲软导致中国风险敞口和对监管的担忧导致的多重压缩的结果。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前 220 美元的价格计算，与目前分析师一致的目标价 298 美元相比，阿里巴巴的股价有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨 35%。分析师目标价通常以 1 年为期限发布，因此，如果分析师社区是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项很好的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个价格目标似乎一点也不离谱，因为 298 美元相当于今年预期净利润的约 29 倍，或明年净利润的 23 倍。当我们谈论 2022 年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你看的是12个月的窗口，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从长远来看，那么 500 美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能达到的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为 20 美元，并且市盈率为 25，那么股票的交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 25 美元，市盈率为 20 倍，那么股票交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 17 美元，交易价格为净利润的 29 倍，那么股价将（略低于）500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有许多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收入就越低。这反过来意味着价格目标可以更快实现，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们查看阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为 30-40 倍，相对于目前的股票估值（约为今年收益的 20 倍），其交易价格显然大幅溢价。我认为目前的估值太低了，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到 30 倍、35 倍甚至 40 倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股票估值可能会更低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，股票确实有一些估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设股票未来的交易价格是净利润的23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大盘股的估值相比，也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊 (AMZN) 的交易价格是今年市盈率的 59 倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用 23 倍市盈率使阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为 21.70 美元。什么时候会是这样？在下图中，我们看到了今年、明年（2022 财年）和 2023 财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW到 2023 年将无法实现每股 22 美元的盈利，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到 2023 年每股收益会增长 100% 以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约 27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约 1.5 年的时间才能将每股收益从 15.20 美元（2023 年估计）增长到我们的目标 21.70 美元。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024 年和 2025 年的增长率仅为 20%，到 2025 年底，每股收益也可能达到 21.70 美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到 2025 年底（即 4.5 年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能达到 500 美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要高市盈率——我相信，在净利润的 23 倍下，阿里巴巴-SW不会很贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守，假设 2023 年每股收益预测过高 10%，并且 2023 年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长 17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年 27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW 2026 年的每股收益将达到 21.70 美元，未来 5.5 年内股价将升至 500 美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来 5.5 年内股价从当前水平上涨 130%，年化回报率为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结这一部分，我会说<i>是的，爸爸可以达到 500 美元</i>——但实际上这需要几年时间。到 2020 年代中期，这对我来说似乎是一个非常容易实现的目标，尽管当然，没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司从多个长期宏观趋势中实现了强劲的增长和利润，例如中国不断增长的消费者支出、不断增长的电子商务市场份额和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能是一个非常有益的游戏的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个有力选择。我属于后一类，因此以当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将有显着上涨空间。然而，根据你的风险承受能力以及你如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，你可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 20:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险并存，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以当前相当低的估值购买的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 efetova/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了高增长的中国消费市场的机会。同时，通过一系列的创业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在额外的行业，比如云计算。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。看到股价上涨至 500 美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这在短期内不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自首次公开募股以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但还应该提到的是，2020 年下半年股价确实下跌，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服的 IPO 计划被叫停，2020 年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价现在基本与一年前持平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在那段时间内继续取得强劲的业绩。例如，上一季度阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，约为50%。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴财报发布中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于年化用户增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW还设法将其 EBITDA 同比增长 25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管对评级管理关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但仍实现了这一目标。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，营业收入增长速度更快，经阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款调整后，营业收入同比增长 48%。我认为，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的，以便更清楚地了解阿里巴巴平均一个季度的潜在“核心”盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技公司而言，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是由于投资者情绪疲软导致中国风险敞口和对监管的担忧导致的多重压缩的结果。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前 220 美元的价格计算，与目前分析师一致的目标价 298 美元相比，阿里巴巴的股价有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨 35%。分析师目标价通常以 1 年为期限发布，因此，如果分析师社区是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项很好的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个价格目标似乎一点也不离谱，因为 298 美元相当于今年预期净利润的约 29 倍，或明年净利润的 23 倍。当我们谈论 2022 年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你看的是12个月的窗口，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从长远来看，那么 500 美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能达到的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为 20 美元，并且市盈率为 25，那么股票的交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 25 美元，市盈率为 20 倍，那么股票交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 17 美元，交易价格为净利润的 29 倍，那么股价将（略低于）500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有许多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收入就越低。这反过来意味着价格目标可以更快实现，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们查看阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为 30-40 倍，相对于目前的股票估值（约为今年收益的 20 倍），其交易价格显然大幅溢价。我认为目前的估值太低了，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到 30 倍、35 倍甚至 40 倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股票估值可能会更低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，股票确实有一些估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设股票未来的交易价格是净利润的23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大盘股的估值相比，也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊 (AMZN) 的交易价格是今年市盈率的 59 倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用 23 倍市盈率使阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为 21.70 美元。什么时候会是这样？在下图中，我们看到了今年、明年（2022 财年）和 2023 财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW到 2023 年将无法实现每股 22 美元的盈利，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到 2023 年每股收益会增长 100% 以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约 27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约 1.5 年的时间才能将每股收益从 15.20 美元（2023 年估计）增长到我们的目标 21.70 美元。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024 年和 2025 年的增长率仅为 20%，到 2025 年底，每股收益也可能达到 21.70 美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到 2025 年底（即 4.5 年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能达到 500 美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要高市盈率——我相信，在净利润的 23 倍下，阿里巴巴-SW不会很贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守，假设 2023 年每股收益预测过高 10%，并且 2023 年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长 17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年 27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW 2026 年的每股收益将达到 21.70 美元，未来 5.5 年内股价将升至 500 美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来 5.5 年内股价从当前水平上涨 130%，年化回报率为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结这一部分，我会说<i>是的，爸爸可以达到 500 美元</i>——但实际上这需要几年时间。到 2020 年代中期，这对我来说似乎是一个非常容易实现的目标，尽管当然，没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司从多个长期宏观趋势中实现了强劲的增长和利润，例如中国不断增长的消费者支出、不断增长的电子商务市场份额和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能是一个非常有益的游戏的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个有力选择。我属于后一类，因此以当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将有显着上涨空间。然而，根据你的风险承受能力以及你如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，你可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154529120","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.\nI believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.\nIn the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.\n\nPhoto by efetova/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAlibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.\nBABA Stock Price\nSince its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:\nData byYCharts\nShares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.\nAlibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and fears about regulation.\nAt its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500?\nThe answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.\nWe see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:\nData byYCharts\nAt 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.\nI still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.\nIf we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:\nData byYCharts\nIf analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.\nData byYCharts\nAnalysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.\nWe can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.\nSo, to sum this section up, I'd sayyes, BABA can hit $500-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.\nIs Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAlibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.\nFor those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111692495,"gmtCreate":1622678036717,"gmtModify":1634099321007,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111692495","repostId":"1140714291","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111952142,"gmtCreate":1622650345286,"gmtModify":1634099545016,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111952142","repostId":"1188552613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188552613","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622627641,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188552613?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 17:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Stock Is Surging Again. How to Make Sense of the Move.<blockquote>AMC 股价再次飙升。如何理解这一举动？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188552613","media":"Barrons","summary":"AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, th","content":"<p>AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, that social media-fueled investor frenzy that has launched the likes of&nbsp;GameStop&nbsp;and&nbsp;BlackBerry&nbsp;into speculative territory.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线飙升的股价很容易被视为只是迷因交易的疯狂，这种社交媒体引发的投资者狂热已经将游戏驿站和黑莓等公司推入了投机领域。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s possible that traditional investors have missed a fundamental change in the movie theater business—and it wouldn’t be the first time.</p><p><blockquote>但传统投资者有可能错过了电影院行业的根本性变革--这也不是第一次了。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC (ticker: AMC) surged 23% on Tuesday, closing at $32.04—just off an all-time high of $36.72 set in late May. That puts the movie-theater chain’s market capitalization at roughly $16 billion, more than 15 times what it was in 2018, a record-breaking year at the box office.&nbsp;Shares were up another 34%, to $42.92, in premarket trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>AMC（股票代码：AMC）股价周二飙升 23%，收于 32.04 美元，略低于 5 月下旬创下的 36.72 美元的历史高点。这使得这家连锁影院的市值约为 160 亿美元，是 2018 年的 15 倍多，2018 年是票房创纪录的一年。在周三的盘前交易中，该公司股价又上涨了 34%，至 42.92 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even if investors missed an inflection point, though, the math doesn’t add up. The reason might be that market cap isn’t the right measure. Maybe it’s enterprise value, which is essentially market cap and debt. AMC’s enterprise value is about $26 billion, compared with $6.2 billion or so at the end of 2018.</p><p><blockquote>不过，即使投资者错过了拐点，数学也不会相加。原因可能是市值不是正确的衡量标准。也许是企业价值，本质上就是市值和债务。AMC 的企业价值约为 260 亿美元，而 2018 年底约为 62 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> AMC added debt during the pandemic as theaters in the country’s biggest cities were dark for months. And the numbers make it easy to understand why: The U.S. box office in 2020 generated about $2.1 billion in ticket sales, down 81% from the 2018 record of $11.9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>由于全国最大城市的影院几个月来一直处于黑暗状态，AMC 在大流行病期间增加了债务。这些数字很容易理解为什么：2020年美国票房产生了约21亿美元的门票销售额，比2018年创纪录的119亿美元下降了81%。</blockquote></p><p> So, it seems investors have been vexed by movie theater economics. But it wouldn’t be the first time. The industry essentially went belly up at the turn of the millennium. Regal Cinemas, for instance, declared bankruptcy in 2001.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者似乎对电影院经济感到困扰。但这并不是第一次。这个行业在千禧年之交基本上崩溃了。例如，富豪影院于2001年宣布破产。</blockquote></p><p> Back then, the industry had plenty of capacity because of a new theater design—stadium seating that gave a better view of the screen. That shift meant movie theater chains had to renovate or risk losing all their patrons to movie theaters that offered the better view. In the end, too many seats and not enough patrons meant the return on the stadium-seating investments never materialized.</p><p><blockquote>当时，由于一种新的剧院设计——体育场座椅可以提供更好的屏幕视野，该行业有足够的容量。这种转变意味着连锁电影院不得不翻新，否则就有可能失去所有顾客，转而去视野更好的电影院。最终，太多的座位和不够的顾客意味着体育场座位投资的回报从未实现。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot was consolidation. With fewer operators, the number of screens stabilized. Between 2002 and 2007, Regal Cinemas became a cash-generating machine because the stock was mispriced. The stock returned 21% a year on average. The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both returned less than 9% a year on average over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>结果是整合。随着操作员的减少，屏幕数量趋于稳定。2002年至2007年间，富豪影院成为一台赚钱机器，因为股票定价错误。该股平均年回报率为 21%。同期，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数的平均年回报率均低于 9%。</blockquote></p><p> In those days, Regal Cinema’s enterprise value about $5 billion, or about 50% of total U.S. box office sales. That’s far short of AMC today. Something new has to be different for AMC to be worth it.</p><p><blockquote>当时，富豪影院的企业价值约为 50 亿美元，约占美国总票房的 50%。这与今天的 AMC 相去甚远。对于 AMC 来说，新的东西必须与众不同才有价值。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe the movie theater business is going to go through another period of consolidation, which can usher in another golden age of returns. AMC’s Tuesday gains, in fact, were catalyzed by new capital raised so the company could go on the offensive, acquiring defunct chains. Monopolies, after all, can be good for stock returns.</p><p><blockquote>或许影院业务又将经历一段盘整期，或许会迎来另一个回报的黄金时代。事实上，AMC 周二的涨幅是由新筹集的资金推动的，这样该公司就可以发动攻势，收购倒闭的连锁店。毕竟，垄断有利于股票回报。</blockquote></p><p> If AMC can increase market share and the U.S. box office sales can return to 2018 levels in a few years, total sales at might be $9 billion—$6 billion from tickets and $3 billion from concessions. Sales in 2018 amounted to $5.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果AMC能够增加市场份额，并且美国票房能够在几年内恢复到2018年的水平，at的总销售额可能达到90亿美元——60亿美元来自门票，30亿美元来自特许经营。2018年销售额达55亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Then, with better gross profit margins derived from larger scale, AMC might be able to generate $600 million in free cash flow annually, which puts the stock at about a 4% free cash flow yield. The S&amp;P 500 trades for about a 3% free cash flow yield. The numbers can work—if they’re stretched.</p><p><blockquote>然后，凭借更大的规模带来的更好的毛利率，AMC 每年可能能够产生 6 亿美元的自由现金流，这使得该股的自由现金流收益率约为 4%。标普500的自由现金流收益率约为 3%。这些数字是可以起作用的--如果它们被拉伸的话。</blockquote></p><p> There are problems with this scenario, though. There are lots of ifs and mights—and AMC has never generated cash flow like that in the past. Arriving at $600 million in free cash flow is more about justifying current valuations than predicting what is likely.</p><p><blockquote>不过，这种情况也存在问题。有很多如果和可能——而 AMC 过去从未产生过这样的现金流。达到 6 亿美元的自由现金流更多的是为了证明当前估值的合理性，而不是预测可能发生的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Also, with mergers and acquisitions, AMC market shares might rise, but there are still competitors. Regal Cinemas is still out there, owned by Cineworld Holdings (CINE. London). So is Cinemark (CNK). There’s not a true monopoly.</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着并购，AMC 市场份额可能会上升，但仍然存在竞争对手。富豪影院仍然存在，由电影世界控股公司（Cine.London）所有。Cinemark (CNK) 也是。不存在真正的垄断。</blockquote></p><p> AMC and its peers have to deal with streaming, too. Windows for exclusive theater showings are shrinking. The pandemic has accelerated that. And if AMC gets too large and demanding for movie makers, the talent can always go to streaming faster, hurting box office sales.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 及其同行也必须处理流媒体问题。独家影院放映的窗口正在缩小。疫情加速了这一进程。如果AMC变得太大，对电影制作人的要求太高，人才总是可以更快地流向流媒体，从而损害票房销售。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the problem of the peer stocks. They aren’t trading like this is a brave new world for theaters. Cineworld stock is up 484% from its 52-week low, but shares are still off 72% from all-time highs. Cinemark shares are up 222% from their 52-week low. They are down 47% from their all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>还有同行股的问题。他们不会像这样交易，这对剧院来说是一个勇敢的新世界。Cineworld 股价较 52 周低点上涨 484%，但仍较历史高点下跌 72%。Cinemark 股价较 52 周低点上涨 222%。它们比历史高点下降了47%。</blockquote></p><p> AMC stock, again, is up almost 1,600% from its 52-week low and is down just 13% from its May all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 股价再次较 52 周低点上涨近 1,600%，较 5 月份的历史高点仅下跌 13%。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street just doesn’t see the potential either. Nine analysts cover the stock. The average analyst price target is about $5. Before the pandemic, the average analyst price target was $15. But there were fewer shares back then. The old target enterprise value was roughly $7 billion. It’s tough to get from $7 billion to $26 billion predicting better margins.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也看不到这种潜力。九名分析师研究了该股。分析师的平均目标价约为 5 美元。在大流行之前，分析师的平均目标价为 15 美元。但当时的股份较少。旧目标企业价值约为70亿美元。从 70 亿美元到 260 亿美元很难预测更好的利润率。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Analysts do have positive free cash flow modeled, though–$13 million in 2022 and $90 million in 2023. That’s a long way from $600 million.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师确实模拟了正的自由现金流——2022 年为 1300 万美元，2023 年为 9000 万美元。这距离 6 亿美元还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p> And that’s just another way of saying that AMC bulls are a long way from making the math work.</p><p><blockquote>这只是另一种说法，即 AMC 看涨者离计算成功还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Stock Is Surging Again. How to Make Sense of the Move.<blockquote>AMC 股价再次飙升。如何理解这一举动？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Stock Is Surging Again. How to Make Sense of the Move.<blockquote>AMC 股价再次飙升。如何理解这一举动？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 17:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, that social media-fueled investor frenzy that has launched the likes of&nbsp;GameStop&nbsp;and&nbsp;BlackBerry&nbsp;into speculative territory.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线飙升的股价很容易被视为只是迷因交易的疯狂，这种社交媒体引发的投资者狂热已经将游戏驿站和黑莓等公司推入了投机领域。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s possible that traditional investors have missed a fundamental change in the movie theater business—and it wouldn’t be the first time.</p><p><blockquote>但传统投资者有可能错过了电影院行业的根本性变革--这也不是第一次了。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC (ticker: AMC) surged 23% on Tuesday, closing at $32.04—just off an all-time high of $36.72 set in late May. That puts the movie-theater chain’s market capitalization at roughly $16 billion, more than 15 times what it was in 2018, a record-breaking year at the box office.&nbsp;Shares were up another 34%, to $42.92, in premarket trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>AMC（股票代码：AMC）股价周二飙升 23%，收于 32.04 美元，略低于 5 月下旬创下的 36.72 美元的历史高点。这使得这家连锁影院的市值约为 160 亿美元，是 2018 年的 15 倍多，2018 年是票房创纪录的一年。在周三的盘前交易中，该公司股价又上涨了 34%，至 42.92 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even if investors missed an inflection point, though, the math doesn’t add up. The reason might be that market cap isn’t the right measure. Maybe it’s enterprise value, which is essentially market cap and debt. AMC’s enterprise value is about $26 billion, compared with $6.2 billion or so at the end of 2018.</p><p><blockquote>不过，即使投资者错过了拐点，数学也不会相加。原因可能是市值不是正确的衡量标准。也许是企业价值，本质上就是市值和债务。AMC 的企业价值约为 260 亿美元，而 2018 年底约为 62 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> AMC added debt during the pandemic as theaters in the country’s biggest cities were dark for months. And the numbers make it easy to understand why: The U.S. box office in 2020 generated about $2.1 billion in ticket sales, down 81% from the 2018 record of $11.9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>由于全国最大城市的影院几个月来一直处于黑暗状态，AMC 在大流行病期间增加了债务。这些数字很容易理解为什么：2020年美国票房产生了约21亿美元的门票销售额，比2018年创纪录的119亿美元下降了81%。</blockquote></p><p> So, it seems investors have been vexed by movie theater economics. But it wouldn’t be the first time. The industry essentially went belly up at the turn of the millennium. Regal Cinemas, for instance, declared bankruptcy in 2001.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者似乎对电影院经济感到困扰。但这并不是第一次。这个行业在千禧年之交基本上崩溃了。例如，富豪影院于2001年宣布破产。</blockquote></p><p> Back then, the industry had plenty of capacity because of a new theater design—stadium seating that gave a better view of the screen. That shift meant movie theater chains had to renovate or risk losing all their patrons to movie theaters that offered the better view. In the end, too many seats and not enough patrons meant the return on the stadium-seating investments never materialized.</p><p><blockquote>当时，由于一种新的剧院设计——体育场座椅可以提供更好的屏幕视野，该行业有足够的容量。这种转变意味着连锁电影院不得不翻新，否则就有可能失去所有顾客，转而去视野更好的电影院。最终，太多的座位和不够的顾客意味着体育场座位投资的回报从未实现。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot was consolidation. With fewer operators, the number of screens stabilized. Between 2002 and 2007, Regal Cinemas became a cash-generating machine because the stock was mispriced. The stock returned 21% a year on average. The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both returned less than 9% a year on average over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>结果是整合。随着操作员的减少，屏幕数量趋于稳定。2002年至2007年间，富豪影院成为一台赚钱机器，因为股票定价错误。该股平均年回报率为 21%。同期，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数的平均年回报率均低于 9%。</blockquote></p><p> In those days, Regal Cinema’s enterprise value about $5 billion, or about 50% of total U.S. box office sales. That’s far short of AMC today. Something new has to be different for AMC to be worth it.</p><p><blockquote>当时，富豪影院的企业价值约为 50 亿美元，约占美国总票房的 50%。这与今天的 AMC 相去甚远。对于 AMC 来说，新的东西必须与众不同才有价值。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe the movie theater business is going to go through another period of consolidation, which can usher in another golden age of returns. AMC’s Tuesday gains, in fact, were catalyzed by new capital raised so the company could go on the offensive, acquiring defunct chains. Monopolies, after all, can be good for stock returns.</p><p><blockquote>或许影院业务又将经历一段盘整期，或许会迎来另一个回报的黄金时代。事实上，AMC 周二的涨幅是由新筹集的资金推动的，这样该公司就可以发动攻势，收购倒闭的连锁店。毕竟，垄断有利于股票回报。</blockquote></p><p> If AMC can increase market share and the U.S. box office sales can return to 2018 levels in a few years, total sales at might be $9 billion—$6 billion from tickets and $3 billion from concessions. Sales in 2018 amounted to $5.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果AMC能够增加市场份额，并且美国票房能够在几年内恢复到2018年的水平，at的总销售额可能达到90亿美元——60亿美元来自门票，30亿美元来自特许经营。2018年销售额达55亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Then, with better gross profit margins derived from larger scale, AMC might be able to generate $600 million in free cash flow annually, which puts the stock at about a 4% free cash flow yield. The S&amp;P 500 trades for about a 3% free cash flow yield. The numbers can work—if they’re stretched.</p><p><blockquote>然后，凭借更大的规模带来的更好的毛利率，AMC 每年可能能够产生 6 亿美元的自由现金流，这使得该股的自由现金流收益率约为 4%。标普500的自由现金流收益率约为 3%。这些数字是可以起作用的--如果它们被拉伸的话。</blockquote></p><p> There are problems with this scenario, though. There are lots of ifs and mights—and AMC has never generated cash flow like that in the past. Arriving at $600 million in free cash flow is more about justifying current valuations than predicting what is likely.</p><p><blockquote>不过，这种情况也存在问题。有很多如果和可能——而 AMC 过去从未产生过这样的现金流。达到 6 亿美元的自由现金流更多的是为了证明当前估值的合理性，而不是预测可能发生的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Also, with mergers and acquisitions, AMC market shares might rise, but there are still competitors. Regal Cinemas is still out there, owned by Cineworld Holdings (CINE. London). So is Cinemark (CNK). There’s not a true monopoly.</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着并购，AMC 市场份额可能会上升，但仍然存在竞争对手。富豪影院仍然存在，由电影世界控股公司（Cine.London）所有。Cinemark (CNK) 也是。不存在真正的垄断。</blockquote></p><p> AMC and its peers have to deal with streaming, too. Windows for exclusive theater showings are shrinking. The pandemic has accelerated that. And if AMC gets too large and demanding for movie makers, the talent can always go to streaming faster, hurting box office sales.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 及其同行也必须处理流媒体问题。独家影院放映的窗口正在缩小。疫情加速了这一进程。如果AMC变得太大，对电影制作人的要求太高，人才总是可以更快地流向流媒体，从而损害票房销售。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the problem of the peer stocks. They aren’t trading like this is a brave new world for theaters. Cineworld stock is up 484% from its 52-week low, but shares are still off 72% from all-time highs. Cinemark shares are up 222% from their 52-week low. They are down 47% from their all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>还有同行股的问题。他们不会像这样交易，这对剧院来说是一个勇敢的新世界。Cineworld 股价较 52 周低点上涨 484%，但仍较历史高点下跌 72%。Cinemark 股价较 52 周低点上涨 222%。它们比历史高点下降了47%。</blockquote></p><p> AMC stock, again, is up almost 1,600% from its 52-week low and is down just 13% from its May all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 股价再次较 52 周低点上涨近 1,600%，较 5 月份的历史高点仅下跌 13%。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street just doesn’t see the potential either. Nine analysts cover the stock. The average analyst price target is about $5. Before the pandemic, the average analyst price target was $15. But there were fewer shares back then. The old target enterprise value was roughly $7 billion. It’s tough to get from $7 billion to $26 billion predicting better margins.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也看不到这种潜力。九名分析师研究了该股。分析师的平均目标价约为 5 美元。在大流行之前，分析师的平均目标价为 15 美元。但当时的股份较少。旧目标企业价值约为70亿美元。从 70 亿美元到 260 亿美元很难预测更好的利润率。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Analysts do have positive free cash flow modeled, though–$13 million in 2022 and $90 million in 2023. That’s a long way from $600 million.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师确实模拟了正的自由现金流——2022 年为 1300 万美元，2023 年为 9000 万美元。这距离 6 亿美元还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p> And that’s just another way of saying that AMC bulls are a long way from making the math work.</p><p><blockquote>这只是另一种说法，即 AMC 看涨者离计算成功还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amc-rockets-higher-is-it-worth-it-maybe-51622594691?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amc-rockets-higher-is-it-worth-it-maybe-51622594691?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188552613","content_text":"AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, that social media-fueled investor frenzy that has launched the likes of GameStop and BlackBerry into speculative territory.\nBut it’s possible that traditional investors have missed a fundamental change in the movie theater business—and it wouldn’t be the first time.\nShares of AMC (ticker: AMC) surged 23% on Tuesday, closing at $32.04—just off an all-time high of $36.72 set in late May. That puts the movie-theater chain’s market capitalization at roughly $16 billion, more than 15 times what it was in 2018, a record-breaking year at the box office. Shares were up another 34%, to $42.92, in premarket trading Wednesday.\nEven if investors missed an inflection point, though, the math doesn’t add up. The reason might be that market cap isn’t the right measure. Maybe it’s enterprise value, which is essentially market cap and debt. AMC’s enterprise value is about $26 billion, compared with $6.2 billion or so at the end of 2018.\nAMC added debt during the pandemic as theaters in the country’s biggest cities were dark for months. And the numbers make it easy to understand why: The U.S. box office in 2020 generated about $2.1 billion in ticket sales, down 81% from the 2018 record of $11.9 billion.\nSo, it seems investors have been vexed by movie theater economics. But it wouldn’t be the first time. The industry essentially went belly up at the turn of the millennium. Regal Cinemas, for instance, declared bankruptcy in 2001.\nBack then, the industry had plenty of capacity because of a new theater design—stadium seating that gave a better view of the screen. That shift meant movie theater chains had to renovate or risk losing all their patrons to movie theaters that offered the better view. In the end, too many seats and not enough patrons meant the return on the stadium-seating investments never materialized.\nThe upshot was consolidation. With fewer operators, the number of screens stabilized. Between 2002 and 2007, Regal Cinemas became a cash-generating machine because the stock was mispriced. The stock returned 21% a year on average. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both returned less than 9% a year on average over the same period.\nIn those days, Regal Cinema’s enterprise value about $5 billion, or about 50% of total U.S. box office sales. That’s far short of AMC today. Something new has to be different for AMC to be worth it.\nMaybe the movie theater business is going to go through another period of consolidation, which can usher in another golden age of returns. AMC’s Tuesday gains, in fact, were catalyzed by new capital raised so the company could go on the offensive, acquiring defunct chains. Monopolies, after all, can be good for stock returns.\nIf AMC can increase market share and the U.S. box office sales can return to 2018 levels in a few years, total sales at might be $9 billion—$6 billion from tickets and $3 billion from concessions. Sales in 2018 amounted to $5.5 billion.\nThen, with better gross profit margins derived from larger scale, AMC might be able to generate $600 million in free cash flow annually, which puts the stock at about a 4% free cash flow yield. The S&P 500 trades for about a 3% free cash flow yield. The numbers can work—if they’re stretched.\nThere are problems with this scenario, though. There are lots of ifs and mights—and AMC has never generated cash flow like that in the past. Arriving at $600 million in free cash flow is more about justifying current valuations than predicting what is likely.\nAlso, with mergers and acquisitions, AMC market shares might rise, but there are still competitors. Regal Cinemas is still out there, owned by Cineworld Holdings (CINE. London). So is Cinemark (CNK). There’s not a true monopoly.\nAMC and its peers have to deal with streaming, too. Windows for exclusive theater showings are shrinking. The pandemic has accelerated that. And if AMC gets too large and demanding for movie makers, the talent can always go to streaming faster, hurting box office sales.\nThere is also the problem of the peer stocks. They aren’t trading like this is a brave new world for theaters. Cineworld stock is up 484% from its 52-week low, but shares are still off 72% from all-time highs. Cinemark shares are up 222% from their 52-week low. They are down 47% from their all-time high.\nAMC stock, again, is up almost 1,600% from its 52-week low and is down just 13% from its May all-time high.\nWall Street just doesn’t see the potential either. Nine analysts cover the stock. The average analyst price target is about $5. Before the pandemic, the average analyst price target was $15. But there were fewer shares back then. The old target enterprise value was roughly $7 billion. It’s tough to get from $7 billion to $26 billion predicting better margins.\nAnalysts do have positive free cash flow modeled, though–$13 million in 2022 and $90 million in 2023. That’s a long way from $600 million.\nAnd that’s just another way of saying that AMC bulls are a long way from making the math work.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119733702,"gmtCreate":1622563419606,"gmtModify":1634100418246,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Common mistakes indeed","listText":"Common mistakes indeed","text":"Common mistakes indeed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119733702","repostId":"2139589924","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107205776,"gmtCreate":1620491603195,"gmtModify":1634198426966,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"To the moon&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;","listText":"To the moon&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;","text":"To the moon [看涨] [看涨] [看涨]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107205776","repostId":"1160802774","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160802774","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620442206,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1160802774?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 10:50","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫，埃隆-马斯克将主持《周六夜现场》</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160802774","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue Un","content":"<p>Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.</p><p><blockquote>尼基·比塞蒂 (Nikki Beesetti) 早在 2017 年就开始投资加密货币，并用她心血来潮购买的一台比特币的销售收入偿还了她在普渡大学的最后一个学期，该收入已飙升至近 20,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p>Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin&nbsp;,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>现在，纽约一家初创公司的产品经理正在涉足狗狗币，并认为本周末可能是这种恶搞币的成败时刻，该恶搞币在 2021 年上涨了近 13,000%。</blockquote></p><p>“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.</p><p><blockquote>“Beesetti 在接受 MarketWatch 电话采访时说：”本周六将是狗狗币的成败之战。</blockquote></p><p>“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”如果他真的能把信息传递正确，狗狗币就能真正起飞.或者它会崩溃到任何它想崩溃的地方。</blockquote></p><p>The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.</p><p><blockquote>这位 25 岁的投资者是众多相对年轻的交易者之一，他们作为所谓的笑话资产造币厂百万富翁，涌入狗狗币等投机性山寨币，并引起了人们对新生加密货币综合体中形成泡沫的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克将于本周末主持美国全国广播公司（NBC）的深夜电视直播喜剧小品节目《周六夜现场》（Saturday Night Live），他的亮相已经引起了欢呼和嘲笑。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla&nbsp;has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge,&nbsp;tweeting back on April 1&nbsp;that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克一直是狗狗币和加密货币的最大啦啦队员之一。这位自称为 “技术专家 ”的特斯拉主要利用他在社交媒体上的大量粉丝来抬高 doge 的价格，他早在 4 月 1 日就在推特上表示，他将使用他的 SpaceX 火箭将实体 doge 硬币放在月球上，这与社交媒体上将硬币价格 “推向月球 ”的目标相呼应。</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.</p><p><blockquote>比塞蒂说，她第一次涉足狗狗币--她还投资科技股和交易所交易基金--是在马斯克去年夏天的社交媒体信件的推动下。</blockquote></p><p>She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.</p><p><blockquote>她在狗狗币的交易价格为1美分的3/10时购买了它，尽管去年8月它达到了1美分左右，但她仍保持了她在2013年创建的数字资产中的平均美元成本头寸。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin&nbsp;and Ethereum&nbsp;,the two largest cryptos in the world.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克已成为 Reddit 等网站上狗狗币持有者的集结点，他即将出现在《SNL》节目中，这在加密货币市场内外都是一个备受期待的时刻，而加密货币市场主要集中在比特币和以太币这两个世界上最大的加密货币上。</blockquote></p><p>Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币长期以来一直是数字资产领域的笑话货币，但不可否认的是，它飙升的价值吸引了主街和华尔街的注意--至少是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p>Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>前《周六夜现场》剧组成员、喜剧演员大卫-斯派德（David Spade）周四在推特上表示，他想知道马斯克出现在小品节目中是否相当于 doge 的 90 分钟信息广告，并补充说，也许是半开玩笑地说，他正在购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com&nbsp;have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.</p><p><blockquote>博彩平台SportsBettingDime.com的博彩公司已经为马斯克出现在《周六夜现场》节目中提供了一些道具投注，包括他在节目中首先提到的任何加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:</p><p><blockquote>马斯克首先提到的是哪种加密货币：</blockquote></p><p>1. Bitcoin: -200</p><p><blockquote>1. 比特币：-200</blockquote></p><p>2. Dogecoin: +600</p><p><blockquote>2.狗狗币：+600</blockquote></p><p>3. FIELD: +450</p><p><blockquote>3. 字段：+450</blockquote></p><p>4. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400</p><p><blockquote>4. 未提及比特币：+400</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti 表示，她最近出售了价值约 8,000 美元的 dogecoin，购买了一双 Gucci 鞋、一部 iPhone，并提高了她在以太币协议 Ether thar 运行中的地位，但除此之外，她一直是 doge 的稳定持有者。</blockquote></p><p>The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>这位投资者不愿提供具体数字，但表示她目前持有的狗狗币在 5 万到 10 万个之间。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.</p><p><blockquote>也许与 doge 的一些投资者不同，她并不幻想它具有效用，而是接受了 momentum 可以在模仿资产中建立这种可能性，以至于它可以伪造自己的合法性。</blockquote></p><p>“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”</p><p><blockquote>“Doge 没有内在价值，”Beesetti 说。“如果你和一群人相信它，这种价值就会变得真实。在这种情况下，相信它的团体和人比以前更多了”。</blockquote></p><p>That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，至少一位分析师表示，周日早上，现实可能会对模因币持有者造成沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p>“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term&nbsp;Dogecoin&nbsp;bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>“Oanda 高级市场分析师爱德华-莫亚（Edward Moya）在一份研究报告中写道：”在 SNL 之后，一些加密货币交易员可能会放弃对狗狗币的短期押注，一旦狗狗币没有飙升至月球或处于备受关注的 1 美元水平。</blockquote></p><p>The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师还指出，狗狗币投资者（在加密货币世界中被称为霍德勒）的坚定信念可能会违背逻辑并保持价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.</p><p><blockquote>“Oanda 策略师说：”一直致力于 Doge 的零售大军可能仍然顽固地持有 Doge，因此，如果没有出现卖出事件的反应，我们也不应该感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p>How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币的结果如何，谁也说不准。</blockquote></p><p>“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.</p><p><blockquote>“比塞蒂说：”这只是一种备忘录货币，但有时最有趣的结果会变成现实。</blockquote></p><p>That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures&nbsp;are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;and the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;has gained about over 6% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数其他资产相比，这种迷因货币的表现非常出色。今年迄今为止，黄金期货下跌了3%，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数在2021年上涨了近13%，而纳斯达克综合指数今年迄今为止上涨了6%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫，埃隆-马斯克将主持《周六夜现场》</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫，埃隆-马斯克将主持《周六夜现场》</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 10:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.</p><p><blockquote>尼基·比塞蒂 (Nikki Beesetti) 早在 2017 年就开始投资加密货币，并用她心血来潮购买的一台比特币的销售收入偿还了她在普渡大学的最后一个学期，该收入已飙升至近 20,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p>Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin&nbsp;,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>现在，纽约一家初创公司的产品经理正在涉足狗狗币，并认为本周末可能是这种恶搞币的成败时刻，该恶搞币在 2021 年上涨了近 13,000%。</blockquote></p><p>“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.</p><p><blockquote>“Beesetti 在接受 MarketWatch 电话采访时说：”本周六将是狗狗币的成败之战。</blockquote></p><p>“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”如果他真的能把信息传递正确，狗狗币就能真正起飞.或者它会崩溃到任何它想崩溃的地方。</blockquote></p><p>The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.</p><p><blockquote>这位 25 岁的投资者是众多相对年轻的交易者之一，他们作为所谓的笑话资产造币厂百万富翁，涌入狗狗币等投机性山寨币，并引起了人们对新生加密货币综合体中形成泡沫的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克将于本周末主持美国全国广播公司（NBC）的深夜电视直播喜剧小品节目《周六夜现场》（Saturday Night Live），他的亮相已经引起了欢呼和嘲笑。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla&nbsp;has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge,&nbsp;tweeting back on April 1&nbsp;that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克一直是狗狗币和加密货币的最大啦啦队员之一。这位自称为 “技术专家 ”的特斯拉主要利用他在社交媒体上的大量粉丝来抬高 doge 的价格，他早在 4 月 1 日就在推特上表示，他将使用他的 SpaceX 火箭将实体 doge 硬币放在月球上，这与社交媒体上将硬币价格 “推向月球 ”的目标相呼应。</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.</p><p><blockquote>比塞蒂说，她第一次涉足狗狗币--她还投资科技股和交易所交易基金--是在马斯克去年夏天的社交媒体信件的推动下。</blockquote></p><p>She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.</p><p><blockquote>她在狗狗币的交易价格为1美分的3/10时购买了它，尽管去年8月它达到了1美分左右，但她仍保持了她在2013年创建的数字资产中的平均美元成本头寸。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin&nbsp;and Ethereum&nbsp;,the two largest cryptos in the world.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克已成为 Reddit 等网站上狗狗币持有者的集结点，他即将出现在《SNL》节目中，这在加密货币市场内外都是一个备受期待的时刻，而加密货币市场主要集中在比特币和以太币这两个世界上最大的加密货币上。</blockquote></p><p>Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币长期以来一直是数字资产领域的笑话货币，但不可否认的是，它飙升的价值吸引了主街和华尔街的注意--至少是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p>Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>前《周六夜现场》剧组成员、喜剧演员大卫-斯派德（David Spade）周四在推特上表示，他想知道马斯克出现在小品节目中是否相当于 doge 的 90 分钟信息广告，并补充说，也许是半开玩笑地说，他正在购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com&nbsp;have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.</p><p><blockquote>博彩平台SportsBettingDime.com的博彩公司已经为马斯克出现在《周六夜现场》节目中提供了一些道具投注，包括他在节目中首先提到的任何加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:</p><p><blockquote>马斯克首先提到的是哪种加密货币：</blockquote></p><p>1. Bitcoin: -200</p><p><blockquote>1. 比特币：-200</blockquote></p><p>2. Dogecoin: +600</p><p><blockquote>2.狗狗币：+600</blockquote></p><p>3. FIELD: +450</p><p><blockquote>3. 字段：+450</blockquote></p><p>4. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400</p><p><blockquote>4. 未提及比特币：+400</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti 表示，她最近出售了价值约 8,000 美元的 dogecoin，购买了一双 Gucci 鞋、一部 iPhone，并提高了她在以太币协议 Ether thar 运行中的地位，但除此之外，她一直是 doge 的稳定持有者。</blockquote></p><p>The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>这位投资者不愿提供具体数字，但表示她目前持有的狗狗币在 5 万到 10 万个之间。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.</p><p><blockquote>也许与 doge 的一些投资者不同，她并不幻想它具有效用，而是接受了 momentum 可以在模仿资产中建立这种可能性，以至于它可以伪造自己的合法性。</blockquote></p><p>“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”</p><p><blockquote>“Doge 没有内在价值，”Beesetti 说。“如果你和一群人相信它，这种价值就会变得真实。在这种情况下，相信它的团体和人比以前更多了”。</blockquote></p><p>That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，至少一位分析师表示，周日早上，现实可能会对模因币持有者造成沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p>“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term&nbsp;Dogecoin&nbsp;bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>“Oanda 高级市场分析师爱德华-莫亚（Edward Moya）在一份研究报告中写道：”在 SNL 之后，一些加密货币交易员可能会放弃对狗狗币的短期押注，一旦狗狗币没有飙升至月球或处于备受关注的 1 美元水平。</blockquote></p><p>The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师还指出，狗狗币投资者（在加密货币世界中被称为霍德勒）的坚定信念可能会违背逻辑并保持价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.</p><p><blockquote>“Oanda 策略师说：”一直致力于 Doge 的零售大军可能仍然顽固地持有 Doge，因此，如果没有出现卖出事件的反应，我们也不应该感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p>How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币的结果如何，谁也说不准。</blockquote></p><p>“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.</p><p><blockquote>“比塞蒂说：”这只是一种备忘录货币，但有时最有趣的结果会变成现实。</blockquote></p><p>That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures&nbsp;are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;and the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;has gained about over 6% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数其他资产相比，这种迷因货币的表现非常出色。今年迄今为止，黄金期货下跌了3%，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数在2021年上涨了近13%，而纳斯达克综合指数今年迄今为止上涨了6%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160802774","content_text":"Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin ,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn cheers and jeers.Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge, tweeting back on April 1 that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin and Ethereum ,the two largest cryptos in the world.Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:1. Bitcoin: -2002. Dogecoin: +6003. FIELD: +4504. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term Dogecoin bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has gained about over 6% so far this year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":102415554,"gmtCreate":1620230288378,"gmtModify":1634206794045,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Maybe","listText":"Maybe","text":"Maybe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102415554","repostId":"1131387668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131387668","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620228331,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1131387668?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-05 23:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This COVID-19 Vaccine Stock Quietly Soared 75% In April: Is There More Upside Ahead?<blockquote>这只 COVID-19 疫苗股票在 4 月份悄然飙升 75%：未来还有更多上涨空间吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131387668","media":"benzinga","summary":"Shares ofBioNTech SE, which partnered withPfizer Inc. in successfully developing a vaccine against t","content":"<p><div> Shares ofBioNTech SE, which partnered withPfizer Inc. in successfully developing a vaccine against the coronavirus, have been gaining ground. BioNTech's Price Action:BioNTech and its partner ...</p><p><blockquote><div>BioNTech SE 与辉瑞公司合作成功开发了针对冠状病毒的疫苗，其股价一直在上涨。BioNTech 的价格走势：BioNTech 及其合作伙伴……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/05/20918917/this-covid-19-vaccine-stock-quietly-soared-75-in-april-is-there-more-upside-ahead\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/05/20918917/this-covid-19-vaccine-stock-quietly-soared-75-in-april-is-there-more-upside-ahead\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This COVID-19 Vaccine Stock Quietly Soared 75% In April: Is There More Upside Ahead?<blockquote>这只 COVID-19 疫苗股票在 4 月份悄然飙升 75%：未来还有更多上涨空间吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis COVID-19 Vaccine Stock Quietly Soared 75% In April: Is There More Upside Ahead?<blockquote>这只 COVID-19 疫苗股票在 4 月份悄然飙升 75%：未来还有更多上涨空间吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-05 23:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Shares ofBioNTech SE, which partnered withPfizer Inc. in successfully developing a vaccine against the coronavirus, have been gaining ground. BioNTech's Price Action:BioNTech and its partner ...</p><p><blockquote><div>BioNTech SE 与辉瑞公司合作成功开发了针对冠状病毒的疫苗，其股价一直在上涨。BioNTech 的价格走势：BioNTech 及其合作伙伴……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/05/20918917/this-covid-19-vaccine-stock-quietly-soared-75-in-april-is-there-more-upside-ahead\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/05/20918917/this-covid-19-vaccine-stock-quietly-soared-75-in-april-is-there-more-upside-ahead\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/05/20918917/this-covid-19-vaccine-stock-quietly-soared-75-in-april-is-there-more-upside-ahead\">benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNTX":"BioNTech SE"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/05/20918917/this-covid-19-vaccine-stock-quietly-soared-75-in-april-is-there-more-upside-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131387668","content_text":"Shares ofBioNTech SE, which partnered withPfizer Inc. in successfully developing a vaccine against the coronavirus, have been gaining ground.\nBioNTech's Price Action:BioNTech and its partner Pfizerreceived in mid-Decemberauthorization for emergency use of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine against the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19.\nBioNTech's shares, which rallied to a high of $131 ahead of the FDA decision, gave back part of the gains in a ‘buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news' move. The stock ended 2020 at $81.52, about 38% off the intraday high for the year.\nThe German vaccine maker's stock picked up momentum early in 2021, breaching the $100 psychological resistance level on Jan. 8 and trading in a $100-$120 range until early March.\nThe marketwide selloff in March did not spare BioNTech, with the stock dropping below $100 for a few sessions before climbing back again. The stock was locked in a lackluster phase until the end of March.\nCome April, the trend began to change. In the very first session of April, the stock rose over 4% and moved steadily higher through the month. In April alone, the stock added 72.4%.\nTo put things in perspective, if an investor had invested $1,000 in BioNTech shares at the end of March, their investment would now be worth $1,909.46 (using the intraday high of $207.55 hit on Monday). This would mean nearly doubling the investment in a span of a month.\nWhat's Behind The BioNTech Rally:The stock has been supported by the intermittent news flow regarding the company's vaccine.\nIn late March, the companies reported positive top-line results from a study evaluating the vaccine in adolescents.\nOn April 1, BioNTech and Pfizer reported data on BNT162b2 following six months of follow-up that confirmed its efficacy and safety.\nThe companies announced April 9 a request to the FDA to authorize expanded use of the vaccine in adolescents ages 12-15.\nThe FDA'sdecisionto temporarily pause the use ofJohnson & Johnson'sJNJ 0.2%vaccine also proved positive for BioNTech, which added about 7% on April 13 when the pause was announced.\nIn mid-April, the companies announced an agreement with the European Union to supply 100 million doses of BNT162b2, which is named Comirnaty in Europe, in 2021. With that, the total number of doses delivered to the EU is 600 million.\nLast week, a request was submitted to the EU to expand conditional marketing authorization to adolescents in the EU.\nWhat Lies Ahead For BioNTech Stock?BNT162b2 is expected to continue to boost BioNTech's top-line. Having delivered 200 million doses by the end of March, the company has signed orders for supplying 1.4 billion doses in 2021.\nPfizer and BioNTech plan to boost the manufacturing capacity for the vaccine to 2.5 billion doses by the end of 2021.\n\"BioNTech and Pfizer will be the standout leader in COVID-19 vaccination globally, with demand increasing for the 2.5Bn doses they are targeting to manufacture in 2021,\" SVB Leerink analyst Daina Graybosch said in a note.\nWith the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic now sweeping across several nations, the companies have a lucrative opportunity. The companies have also proved the efficacy of the vaccine against variants.\nOnce the pandemic phase passes, the vaccine has scope for use in endemic setting.\nMore importantly, BioNTech is not a one-trick pony. The company has a broad oncology pipeline consisting of 13 product candidates.\nWeighing in all the opportunities, further upside in the stock cannot be ruled out.\nBNTX Price Action:At last check, BioNTech shares were rising 8.2% to $191.38.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BNTX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":371640948,"gmtCreate":1618933415684,"gmtModify":1634289770429,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371640948","repostId":"1121126533","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":352883378,"gmtCreate":1616927986794,"gmtModify":1634523507909,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sad","listText":"Sad","text":"Sad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352883378","repostId":"1141686975","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141686975","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616780260,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1141686975?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-27 01:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技首日交易下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141686975","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO pri","content":"<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股 8.02 美元，比公司 9.5 美元的 IPO 价格低约 15.6%。知乎的 IPO 价格处于区间的低端，公司估值约为 53 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五公布了首次公开募股的定价，为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期范围的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中提供了5500万份广告，筹集了5.225亿美元，而定价对该公司的估值约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎有一个类似于Quora的商业模式，数百万人提出问题，交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为中国最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占该公司收入的最大部分。于二零一九年及二零二零年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%及62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们估计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年增加到31.5%，在2025年增加到37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>内容商务解决方案和其他销售额在2020年也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入由2019年的人民币60万元跃升至2020年的人民币1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足他们所有的销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率由2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率将进一步提高至2021年的57.4%和2025年的62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用及营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总营运开支占收入的百分比由二零一九年的204.4%大幅下降至二零二零年的100.6%。我们预计这一比率将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年达到69.2%，2025年达到57.2%。运营费用的大部分改善来自于未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年底，知乎累计拥有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的主要优势之一是它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被认为提供中国最高质量的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎从百度和快手科技等领先投资者那里获得了4.34亿美元的资金，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率应用于该公司 2020 年 2.07 亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为 75 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初开发于2010年，是一个问答在线社区。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿条问答，涵盖1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。就2020年的平均移动MAU和收入而言，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周源拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性占用户总数的56.9%。30岁以下的人占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市占总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领职场人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占该公司收入的最大部分。于二零一九年及二零二零年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%及62.4%。本公司的广告收入主要由其每月活跃用户及每月活跃用户的广告收入推动。2020年，该公司的MAU同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年推出付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，平均每月会员人数同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，该公司推出了Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了无限制访问约340万个付费内容的机会，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它展示了高质量的数据和内容如何产生大量的收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>内容商务解决方案和其他销售额在2020年也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入由2019年的人民币60万元跃升至2020年的人民币1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足他们所有的销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、将最相关的内容创作者分配给感兴趣的用户以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将是未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询，预计2019年至2025年，中国内容商务解决方案市场将实现46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指以UGC（用户生成内容）为中心的（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容）为中心的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创建者也是用户，他们在社区内积极参与。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以刺激更高水平的用户参与、更多交互式的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由二零一五年的386亿元人民币增长至二零一九年的2758亿元人民币，预计二零二五年将进一步增长至1.3万亿元人民币，二零一九年至二零二五年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场的增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电子商务、内容商务解决方案、直播中的虚拟礼物、网络游戏和在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一大积极因素是越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。2019 年至 2025 年间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量预计将以 17.1% 的复合年增长率增长，这意味着到 2025 年，在线内容社区的付费用户数量将增加 3.604 亿，达到 5.882 亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国网络内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场从2015年增长了两倍，到2019年达到1.2万亿元人民币。该市场预计将于2025年增长至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015-2025年中国在线内容市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015-2025年中国在线内容社区市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015-2025年中国付费会员市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供集成的内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到分发给感兴趣的用户。中国内容商务解决方案市场预计将从2019年的114亿元人民币增长至2025年的1123亿元人民币，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（按收入计），2015-2025E</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技首日交易下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技首日交易下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-27 01:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股 8.02 美元，比公司 9.5 美元的 IPO 价格低约 15.6%。知乎的 IPO 价格处于区间的低端，公司估值约为 53 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五公布了首次公开募股的定价，为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期范围的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中提供了5500万份广告，筹集了5.225亿美元，而定价对该公司的估值约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎有一个类似于Quora的商业模式，数百万人提出问题，交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为中国最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占该公司收入的最大部分。于二零一九年及二零二零年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%及62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们估计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年增加到31.5%，在2025年增加到37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>内容商务解决方案和其他销售额在2020年也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入由2019年的人民币60万元跃升至2020年的人民币1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足他们所有的销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率由2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率将进一步提高至2021年的57.4%和2025年的62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用及营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总营运开支占收入的百分比由二零一九年的204.4%大幅下降至二零二零年的100.6%。我们预计这一比率将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年达到69.2%，2025年达到57.2%。运营费用的大部分改善来自于未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年底，知乎累计拥有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的主要优势之一是它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被认为提供中国最高质量的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎从百度和快手科技等领先投资者那里获得了4.34亿美元的资金，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率应用于该公司 2020 年 2.07 亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为 75 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初开发于2010年，是一个问答在线社区。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿条问答，涵盖1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。就2020年的平均移动MAU和收入而言，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周源拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性占用户总数的56.9%。30岁以下的人占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市占总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领职场人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占该公司收入的最大部分。于二零一九年及二零二零年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%及62.4%。本公司的广告收入主要由其每月活跃用户及每月活跃用户的广告收入推动。2020年，该公司的MAU同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年推出付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，平均每月会员人数同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，该公司推出了Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了无限制访问约340万个付费内容的机会，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它展示了高质量的数据和内容如何产生大量的收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>内容商务解决方案和其他销售额在2020年也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入由2019年的人民币60万元跃升至2020年的人民币1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足他们所有的销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、将最相关的内容创作者分配给感兴趣的用户以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将是未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询，预计2019年至2025年，中国内容商务解决方案市场将实现46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指以UGC（用户生成内容）为中心的（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容）为中心的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创建者也是用户，他们在社区内积极参与。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以刺激更高水平的用户参与、更多交互式的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由二零一五年的386亿元人民币增长至二零一九年的2758亿元人民币，预计二零二五年将进一步增长至1.3万亿元人民币，二零一九年至二零二五年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场的增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电子商务、内容商务解决方案、直播中的虚拟礼物、网络游戏和在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一大积极因素是越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。2019 年至 2025 年间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量预计将以 17.1% 的复合年增长率增长，这意味着到 2025 年，在线内容社区的付费用户数量将增加 3.604 亿，达到 5.882 亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国网络内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场从2015年增长了两倍，到2019年达到1.2万亿元人民币。该市场预计将于2025年增长至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015-2025年中国在线内容市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015-2025年中国在线内容社区市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015-2025年中国付费会员市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供集成的内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到分发给感兴趣的用户。中国内容商务解决方案市场预计将从2019年的114亿元人民币增长至2025年的1123亿元人民币，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（按收入计），2015-2025E</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZH":"知乎"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141686975","content_text":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price $9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.Zhihu Inc. announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.Sales BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.Gross MarginsThe company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.Total Operating Expenses and Operating MarginsTotal operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&A and R&D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.Company BackgroundAt the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.Major Shareholders of ZhihuThe founder & CEO Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.Key DemographicsThe diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.Revenue BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions & answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).Market OpportunitiesChina’s Online Content Communities Market SizeOnline content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.China's Online Content MarketChina's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EMarket Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025EChina’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EContent-commerce solutionsTo provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352984745,"gmtCreate":1616859936587,"gmtModify":1634523714420,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352984745","repostId":"1114428323","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":598,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101845970,"gmtCreate":1619883067090,"gmtModify":1634209315594,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"When will I be able to buy 1 share&nbsp;[难过]&nbsp;","listText":"When will I be able to buy 1 share&nbsp;[难过]&nbsp;","text":"When will I be able to buy 1 share [难过]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101845970","repostId":"2132603015","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":371573739,"gmtCreate":1618963311221,"gmtModify":1634289620353,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bought low. Sell lower[喷血]&nbsp;","listText":"Bought low. Sell lower[喷血]&nbsp;","text":"Bought low. Sell lower[喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371573739","repostId":"2129289138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343996432,"gmtCreate":1617668224226,"gmtModify":1634297254418,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Can't wait for it","listText":"Can't wait for it","text":"Can't wait for it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343996432","repostId":"2125576482","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126808691,"gmtCreate":1624549685913,"gmtModify":1634004475553,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126808691","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫情大趋势结束的 5 个原因。</b>COVID-19 大流行期间最大的投资故事之一是以 “郊区避难所 ”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装卖场再到家具家居用品商家，不少顶尖表现者都符合这一口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的先锋非必需消费品指数基金 ETF VCR 为例，该基金上涨 0.66%，从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 3 月飙升 90% 以上。这得益于家装股 Lowe's LOW（-0.30%）和 Home Depot HD（-0.33%）等成分股，以及 TJX TJX（-0.08%）等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名字的表现开始落后。事实上，自 4 月 1 日以来，我们已经看到这三只股票都小幅飘红，即使标普500 SPX 指数同期上涨了约 6%，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些恐惧可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的家居类股票即将 “大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些大牌 “郊区 ”行业仍相对稳定，但边缘地区已经出现了麻烦的迹象。Century Communities CCS（-0.34%）和Dream Finders Homes DFH（-2.55%）是两家中型单户住宅建筑商，其股价在过去一个月暴跌了两位数。在家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR（-0.51%）和百货公司Nordstrom JWN（+2.03%）从春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五个主要原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们注意到了逾期的项目，并利用能够轻松地与承包商会面的优势。但在很多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑房主正在进行的购买类型。水龙头、橱柜甚至马桶都是2020年最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循这种每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月创下了相关网站历史上最高的访问量，有1.33亿网民购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或灯具不是每年都要买的——所以这种趋势似乎不可持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>说到大流行后家居用品供应商的高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过提高利润和销售额来承受这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更厉害--它们的估值超出了历史常态。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过 26，而 2020 年春季的远期市盈率仅为 21。其历史市销率目前为 2.1，而之前为 1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX 等昔日宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为 22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货 M, +0.70% 和 Big Lots Big, -3.71% 的远期市盈率实际上远低于 10。当然，你可以说 TJX 是独一无二的.但你可能也想知道，目前除了时尚的居家交易之外，许多其他股票的 “公允价值 ”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票未来从疫情推动的峰值增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外航运延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但 “宅在家里 ”的股票似乎受到的打击尤为严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的数据，大约 94% 的建筑商表示 “至少存在一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺少框架木材，87%的人说很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你能摆脱需求担忧，如果没有原材料来生产，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有花钱买承包商，也没有接受昂贵的新家具长期延误的人来说，现在有一个相当大的阻碍因素会阻碍新购物者：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>以消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本在5月份上涨了0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏天以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它已经侵蚀了购买力，并可能削减我们在过去一年左右看到的 “宅在家里 ”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通胀：5月份，美国房屋的中位数价格有史以来首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨了23.6%。此外，Realtor.com 的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的出售房主希望获得高于要价的价格，大约同样数量的房主希望在挂牌一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，许多文章都在谈论有吸引力的市场供应短缺的问题，重要的是要承认，大流行病的远程工作确实让人们对人们为何生活在这样的地方进行了一些颠覆性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但问题就出在这里： 已经提前支付了房价预期溢价的房主。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当时类似的卖家权利？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主确实有可能对自己的房屋价值过于乐观--而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款很可能根本无法持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 18:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫情大趋势结束的 5 个原因。</b>COVID-19 大流行期间最大的投资故事之一是以 “郊区避难所 ”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装卖场再到家具家居用品商家，不少顶尖表现者都符合这一口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的先锋非必需消费品指数基金 ETF VCR 为例，该基金上涨 0.66%，从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 3 月飙升 90% 以上。这得益于家装股 Lowe's LOW（-0.30%）和 Home Depot HD（-0.33%）等成分股，以及 TJX TJX（-0.08%）等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名字的表现开始落后。事实上，自 4 月 1 日以来，我们已经看到这三只股票都小幅飘红，即使标普500 SPX 指数同期上涨了约 6%，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些恐惧可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的家居类股票即将 “大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些大牌 “郊区 ”行业仍相对稳定，但边缘地区已经出现了麻烦的迹象。Century Communities CCS（-0.34%）和Dream Finders Homes DFH（-2.55%）是两家中型单户住宅建筑商，其股价在过去一个月暴跌了两位数。在家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR（-0.51%）和百货公司Nordstrom JWN（+2.03%）从春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五个主要原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们注意到了逾期的项目，并利用能够轻松地与承包商会面的优势。但在很多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑房主正在进行的购买类型。水龙头、橱柜甚至马桶都是2020年最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循这种每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月创下了相关网站历史上最高的访问量，有1.33亿网民购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或灯具不是每年都要买的——所以这种趋势似乎不可持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>说到大流行后家居用品供应商的高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过提高利润和销售额来承受这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更厉害--它们的估值超出了历史常态。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过 26，而 2020 年春季的远期市盈率仅为 21。其历史市销率目前为 2.1，而之前为 1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX 等昔日宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为 22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货 M, +0.70% 和 Big Lots Big, -3.71% 的远期市盈率实际上远低于 10。当然，你可以说 TJX 是独一无二的.但你可能也想知道，目前除了时尚的居家交易之外，许多其他股票的 “公允价值 ”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票未来从疫情推动的峰值增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外航运延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但 “宅在家里 ”的股票似乎受到的打击尤为严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的数据，大约 94% 的建筑商表示 “至少存在一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺少框架木材，87%的人说很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你能摆脱需求担忧，如果没有原材料来生产，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有花钱买承包商，也没有接受昂贵的新家具长期延误的人来说，现在有一个相当大的阻碍因素会阻碍新购物者：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>以消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本在5月份上涨了0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏天以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它已经侵蚀了购买力，并可能削减我们在过去一年左右看到的 “宅在家里 ”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通胀：5月份，美国房屋的中位数价格有史以来首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨了23.6%。此外，Realtor.com 的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的出售房主希望获得高于要价的价格，大约同样数量的房主希望在挂牌一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，许多文章都在谈论有吸引力的市场供应短缺的问题，重要的是要承认，大流行病的远程工作确实让人们对人们为何生活在这样的地方进行了一些颠覆性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但问题就出在这里： 已经提前支付了房价预期溢价的房主。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当时类似的卖家权利？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主确实有可能对自己的房屋价值过于乐观--而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款很可能根本无法持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112005622,"gmtCreate":1622822158066,"gmtModify":1634097623796,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112005622","repostId":"1154529120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154529120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622810459,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1154529120?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 20:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154529120","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:. Alibaba Group'","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险并存，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以当前相当低的估值购买的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 efetova/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了高增长的中国消费市场的机会。同时，通过一系列的创业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在额外的行业，比如云计算。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。看到股价上涨至 500 美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这在短期内不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自首次公开募股以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但还应该提到的是，2020 年下半年股价确实下跌，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服的 IPO 计划被叫停，2020 年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价现在基本与一年前持平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在那段时间内继续取得强劲的业绩。例如，上一季度阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，约为50%。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴财报发布中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于年化用户增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW还设法将其 EBITDA 同比增长 25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管对评级管理关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但仍实现了这一目标。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，营业收入增长速度更快，经阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款调整后，营业收入同比增长 48%。我认为，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的，以便更清楚地了解阿里巴巴平均一个季度的潜在“核心”盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技公司而言，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是由于投资者情绪疲软导致中国风险敞口和对监管的担忧导致的多重压缩的结果。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前 220 美元的价格计算，与目前分析师一致的目标价 298 美元相比，阿里巴巴的股价有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨 35%。分析师目标价通常以 1 年为期限发布，因此，如果分析师社区是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项很好的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个价格目标似乎一点也不离谱，因为 298 美元相当于今年预期净利润的约 29 倍，或明年净利润的 23 倍。当我们谈论 2022 年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你看的是12个月的窗口，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从长远来看，那么 500 美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能达到的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为 20 美元，并且市盈率为 25，那么股票的交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 25 美元，市盈率为 20 倍，那么股票交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 17 美元，交易价格为净利润的 29 倍，那么股价将（略低于）500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有许多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收入就越低。这反过来意味着价格目标可以更快实现，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们查看阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为 30-40 倍，相对于目前的股票估值（约为今年收益的 20 倍），其交易价格显然大幅溢价。我认为目前的估值太低了，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到 30 倍、35 倍甚至 40 倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股票估值可能会更低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，股票确实有一些估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设股票未来的交易价格是净利润的23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大盘股的估值相比，也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊 (AMZN) 的交易价格是今年市盈率的 59 倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用 23 倍市盈率使阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为 21.70 美元。什么时候会是这样？在下图中，我们看到了今年、明年（2022 财年）和 2023 财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW到 2023 年将无法实现每股 22 美元的盈利，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到 2023 年每股收益会增长 100% 以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约 27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约 1.5 年的时间才能将每股收益从 15.20 美元（2023 年估计）增长到我们的目标 21.70 美元。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024 年和 2025 年的增长率仅为 20%，到 2025 年底，每股收益也可能达到 21.70 美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到 2025 年底（即 4.5 年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能达到 500 美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要高市盈率——我相信，在净利润的 23 倍下，阿里巴巴-SW不会很贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守，假设 2023 年每股收益预测过高 10%，并且 2023 年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长 17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年 27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW 2026 年的每股收益将达到 21.70 美元，未来 5.5 年内股价将升至 500 美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来 5.5 年内股价从当前水平上涨 130%，年化回报率为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结这一部分，我会说<i>是的，爸爸可以达到 500 美元</i>——但实际上这需要几年时间。到 2020 年代中期，这对我来说似乎是一个非常容易实现的目标，尽管当然，没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司从多个长期宏观趋势中实现了强劲的增长和利润，例如中国不断增长的消费者支出、不断增长的电子商务市场份额和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能是一个非常有益的游戏的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个有力选择。我属于后一类，因此以当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将有显着上涨空间。然而，根据你的风险承受能力以及你如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，你可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 20:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险并存，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以当前相当低的估值购买的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 efetova/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了高增长的中国消费市场的机会。同时，通过一系列的创业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在额外的行业，比如云计算。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。看到股价上涨至 500 美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这在短期内不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自首次公开募股以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但还应该提到的是，2020 年下半年股价确实下跌，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服的 IPO 计划被叫停，2020 年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价现在基本与一年前持平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在那段时间内继续取得强劲的业绩。例如，上一季度阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，约为50%。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴财报发布中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于年化用户增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW还设法将其 EBITDA 同比增长 25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管对评级管理关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但仍实现了这一目标。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，营业收入增长速度更快，经阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款调整后，营业收入同比增长 48%。我认为，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的，以便更清楚地了解阿里巴巴平均一个季度的潜在“核心”盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技公司而言，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是由于投资者情绪疲软导致中国风险敞口和对监管的担忧导致的多重压缩的结果。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前 220 美元的价格计算，与目前分析师一致的目标价 298 美元相比，阿里巴巴的股价有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨 35%。分析师目标价通常以 1 年为期限发布，因此，如果分析师社区是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项很好的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个价格目标似乎一点也不离谱，因为 298 美元相当于今年预期净利润的约 29 倍，或明年净利润的 23 倍。当我们谈论 2022 年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你看的是12个月的窗口，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从长远来看，那么 500 美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能达到的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为 20 美元，并且市盈率为 25，那么股票的交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 25 美元，市盈率为 20 倍，那么股票交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 17 美元，交易价格为净利润的 29 倍，那么股价将（略低于）500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有许多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收入就越低。这反过来意味着价格目标可以更快实现，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们查看阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为 30-40 倍，相对于目前的股票估值（约为今年收益的 20 倍），其交易价格显然大幅溢价。我认为目前的估值太低了，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到 30 倍、35 倍甚至 40 倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股票估值可能会更低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，股票确实有一些估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设股票未来的交易价格是净利润的23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大盘股的估值相比，也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊 (AMZN) 的交易价格是今年市盈率的 59 倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用 23 倍市盈率使阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为 21.70 美元。什么时候会是这样？在下图中，我们看到了今年、明年（2022 财年）和 2023 财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW到 2023 年将无法实现每股 22 美元的盈利，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到 2023 年每股收益会增长 100% 以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约 27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约 1.5 年的时间才能将每股收益从 15.20 美元（2023 年估计）增长到我们的目标 21.70 美元。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024 年和 2025 年的增长率仅为 20%，到 2025 年底，每股收益也可能达到 21.70 美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到 2025 年底（即 4.5 年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能达到 500 美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要高市盈率——我相信，在净利润的 23 倍下，阿里巴巴-SW不会很贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守，假设 2023 年每股收益预测过高 10%，并且 2023 年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长 17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年 27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW 2026 年的每股收益将达到 21.70 美元，未来 5.5 年内股价将升至 500 美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来 5.5 年内股价从当前水平上涨 130%，年化回报率为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结这一部分，我会说<i>是的，爸爸可以达到 500 美元</i>——但实际上这需要几年时间。到 2020 年代中期，这对我来说似乎是一个非常容易实现的目标，尽管当然，没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司从多个长期宏观趋势中实现了强劲的增长和利润，例如中国不断增长的消费者支出、不断增长的电子商务市场份额和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能是一个非常有益的游戏的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个有力选择。我属于后一类，因此以当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将有显着上涨空间。然而，根据你的风险承受能力以及你如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，你可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154529120","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.\nI believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.\nIn the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.\n\nPhoto by efetova/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAlibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.\nBABA Stock Price\nSince its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:\nData byYCharts\nShares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.\nAlibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and fears about regulation.\nAt its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500?\nThe answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.\nWe see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:\nData byYCharts\nAt 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.\nI still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.\nIf we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:\nData byYCharts\nIf analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.\nData byYCharts\nAnalysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.\nWe can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.\nSo, to sum this section up, I'd sayyes, BABA can hit $500-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.\nIs Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAlibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.\nFor those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379300389,"gmtCreate":1618665795541,"gmtModify":1634291488051,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Definitely&nbsp;","listText":"Definitely&nbsp;","text":"Definitely","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379300389","repostId":"1179330583","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121607610,"gmtCreate":1624460585330,"gmtModify":1634005772805,"author":{"id":"3573987760462301","authorId":"3573987760462301","name":"ll2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a011133b900a6b2eede22a4a5d3362b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573987760462301","idStr":"3573987760462301"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy both","listText":"Buy both","text":"Buy both","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121607610","repostId":"1145825451","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}