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Vinnce

Vinnce

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2021-02-25

Good

Can Salesforce Snap Out of Its Funk With Earnings?<blockquote>Salesforce Snap能否摆脱盈利的恐惧？</blockquote>

2021-02-15

$F J BENJAMIN HOLDINGS LTD(F10.SI)$How

2021-02-16

Interesting

Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>

2021-04-14

$Apple(AAPL)$Good

2021-04-13

$Apple(AAPL)$Hold

2021-02-25

Good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-22

$MINDCHAMPS PRESCHOOL LIMITED(CNE.SI)$Small gain

2021-02-19

Good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-18

Good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-17

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

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10:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Apple Car' could generate $50B in revenue by 2030, analyst says<blockquote>分析师称，到2030年，“苹果汽车”可能会产生500亿美元的收入</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160910288","media":"AppleInsider","summary":"The \"Apple Car\" may not disrupt the market when it first debuts, but Piper Sandler says it could become a solid hardware revenue source for Apple, possibly generating $50 billion by 2030.In a note to investors seen byAppleInsider, lead analyst Harsh Kumar laid out Piper Sandler's framework for a potential \"Apple Car\" release.\"Overall, we think Apple entering the automotive market makes perfect sense. Similar to its other hardware offerings, the company can enter the market at a time of peak tech","content":"<p>The \"Apple Car\" may not disrupt the market when it first debuts, but Piper Sandler says it could become a solid hardware revenue source for Apple, possibly generating $50 billion by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>“苹果汽车”首次亮相时可能不会扰乱市场，但Piper Sandler表示，它可能会成为苹果坚实的硬件收入来源，到2030年可能会产生500亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> In a note to investors seen by<i>AppleInsider</i>, lead analyst Harsh Kumar laid out Piper Sandler's framework for a potential \"Apple Car\" release.</p><p><blockquote>在给投资者的一份说明中<i>AppleInsider</i>首席分析师Harsh Kumar阐述了Piper Sandler为潜在的“苹果汽车”发布制定的框架。</blockquote></p><p> \"Overall, we think Apple entering the automotive market makes perfect sense. Similar to its other hardware offerings, the company can enter the market at a time of peak technology disruption while avoiding the risk of forming the market,\" Kumar wrote.</p><p><blockquote>Kumar写道：“总体而言，我们认为苹果进入汽车市场非常有意义。与其其他硬件产品类似，该公司可以在技术颠覆高峰期进入市场，同时避免形成市场的风险。”</blockquote></p><p> It's possible that Apple could opt to make its automotive debut smaller in scale with an upgraded CarPlay system or an Apple-branded vehicle user interface for use in other manufacturer cars. However, Kumar says he expects Apple will run with a \"full-blown Apple branded electric vehicle.\"</p><p><blockquote>苹果可能会选择通过升级的CarPlay系统或苹果品牌的车辆用户界面来缩小其汽车首次亮相的规模，以便在其他制造商的汽车中使用。然而，Kumar表示，他预计苹果将使用“成熟的苹果品牌电动汽车”。</blockquote></p><p> That's because Apple could control every aspect of the design, including the electric vehicle hardware and the baked-in software platform.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为苹果可以控制设计的各个方面，包括电动汽车硬件和内置软件平台。</blockquote></p><p> Citing recent reports, Kumar points out that Apple may be targeting a run of 100,000 vehicles in 2024. Based on that, he says Apple could generate about $5 billion in revenue with just less than 0.1% of the market. If it reached 1% market penetration by 2030, that could grow to $50 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Kumar援引最近的报告指出，苹果的目标可能是在2024年生产10万辆汽车。基于此，他表示苹果可以在不到0.1%的市场份额下创造约50亿美元的收入。如果到2030年市场渗透率达到1%，这一数字可能会增长到500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst believes now is the right time for Apple to enter the car market. That's largely because it's \"primed for technological innovation,\" and the fact that Apple could use the additional revenue to drive growth as products like the&nbsp;iPhone&nbsp;and Mac reach maturity.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师认为，现在是苹果进入汽车市场的最佳时机。这主要是因为它“为技术创新做好了准备”，而且随着iPhone和Mac等产品的成熟，苹果可以利用额外的收入来推动增长。</blockquote></p><p> Even if it does opt for an Apple-branded car, Kumar believes the company will tap a third-party manufacturer to actually produce it. Apple, he notes, doesn't assemble its own hardware products. However, Kumar says that Apple's development on vehicle tech has been in the works for years. As such, he believes the car could feature strong technology compared to rivals.</p><p><blockquote>即使它确实选择苹果品牌的汽车，Kumar相信该公司也会聘请第三方制造商来实际生产它。他指出，苹果不组装自己的硬件产品。然而，Kumar表示，苹果在汽车技术方面的开发已经进行了多年。因此，他相信与竞争对手相比，这款车可以拥有强大的技术。</blockquote></p><p> The biggest hurdle is Apple finding a manufacturing partner, since Kumar notes that carmakers don't want to be \"the Foxconn of the auto industry.\"</p><p><blockquote>最大的障碍是苹果寻找制造合作伙伴，因为Kumar指出，汽车制造商不想成为“汽车行业的富士康”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1614220901842","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Apple Car' could generate $50B in revenue by 2030, analyst says<blockquote>分析师称，到2030年，“苹果汽车”可能会产生500亿美元的收入</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Apple Car' could generate $50B in revenue by 2030, analyst says<blockquote>分析师称，到2030年，“苹果汽车”可能会产生500亿美元的收入</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">AppleInsider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-25 10:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The \"Apple Car\" may not disrupt the market when it first debuts, but Piper Sandler says it could become a solid hardware revenue source for Apple, possibly generating $50 billion by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>“苹果汽车”首次亮相时可能不会扰乱市场，但Piper Sandler表示，它可能会成为苹果坚实的硬件收入来源，到2030年可能会产生500亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> In a note to investors seen by<i>AppleInsider</i>, lead analyst Harsh Kumar laid out Piper Sandler's framework for a potential \"Apple Car\" release.</p><p><blockquote>在给投资者的一份说明中<i>AppleInsider</i>首席分析师Harsh Kumar阐述了Piper Sandler为潜在的“苹果汽车”发布制定的框架。</blockquote></p><p> \"Overall, we think Apple entering the automotive market makes perfect sense. Similar to its other hardware offerings, the company can enter the market at a time of peak technology disruption while avoiding the risk of forming the market,\" Kumar wrote.</p><p><blockquote>Kumar写道：“总体而言，我们认为苹果进入汽车市场非常有意义。与其其他硬件产品类似，该公司可以在技术颠覆高峰期进入市场，同时避免形成市场的风险。”</blockquote></p><p> It's possible that Apple could opt to make its automotive debut smaller in scale with an upgraded CarPlay system or an Apple-branded vehicle user interface for use in other manufacturer cars. However, Kumar says he expects Apple will run with a \"full-blown Apple branded electric vehicle.\"</p><p><blockquote>苹果可能会选择通过升级的CarPlay系统或苹果品牌的车辆用户界面来缩小其汽车首次亮相的规模，以便在其他制造商的汽车中使用。然而，Kumar表示，他预计苹果将使用“成熟的苹果品牌电动汽车”。</blockquote></p><p> That's because Apple could control every aspect of the design, including the electric vehicle hardware and the baked-in software platform.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为苹果可以控制设计的各个方面，包括电动汽车硬件和内置软件平台。</blockquote></p><p> Citing recent reports, Kumar points out that Apple may be targeting a run of 100,000 vehicles in 2024. Based on that, he says Apple could generate about $5 billion in revenue with just less than 0.1% of the market. If it reached 1% market penetration by 2030, that could grow to $50 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Kumar援引最近的报告指出，苹果的目标可能是在2024年生产10万辆汽车。基于此，他表示苹果可以在不到0.1%的市场份额下创造约50亿美元的收入。如果到2030年市场渗透率达到1%，这一数字可能会增长到500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst believes now is the right time for Apple to enter the car market. That's largely because it's \"primed for technological innovation,\" and the fact that Apple could use the additional revenue to drive growth as products like the&nbsp;iPhone&nbsp;and Mac reach maturity.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师认为，现在是苹果进入汽车市场的最佳时机。这主要是因为它“为技术创新做好了准备”，而且随着iPhone和Mac等产品的成熟，苹果可以利用额外的收入来推动增长。</blockquote></p><p> Even if it does opt for an Apple-branded car, Kumar believes the company will tap a third-party manufacturer to actually produce it. Apple, he notes, doesn't assemble its own hardware products. However, Kumar says that Apple's development on vehicle tech has been in the works for years. As such, he believes the car could feature strong technology compared to rivals.</p><p><blockquote>即使它确实选择苹果品牌的汽车，Kumar相信该公司也会聘请第三方制造商来实际生产它。他指出，苹果不组装自己的硬件产品。然而，Kumar表示，苹果在汽车技术方面的开发已经进行了多年。因此，他相信与竞争对手相比，这款车可以拥有强大的技术。</blockquote></p><p> The biggest hurdle is Apple finding a manufacturing partner, since Kumar notes that carmakers don't want to be \"the Foxconn of the auto industry.\"</p><p><blockquote>最大的障碍是苹果寻找制造合作伙伴，因为Kumar指出，汽车制造商不想成为“汽车行业的富士康”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://appleinsider.com/articles/21/02/24/apple-car-could-generate-50b-in-revenue-by-2030-analyst-says\">AppleInsider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://appleinsider.com/articles/21/02/24/apple-car-could-generate-50b-in-revenue-by-2030-analyst-says","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160910288","content_text":"The \"Apple Car\" may not disrupt the market when it first debuts, but Piper Sandler says it could become a solid hardware revenue source for Apple, possibly generating $50 billion by 2030.\nIn a note to investors seen byAppleInsider, lead analyst Harsh Kumar laid out Piper Sandler's framework for a potential \"Apple Car\" release.\n\"Overall, we think Apple entering the automotive market makes perfect sense. Similar to its other hardware offerings, the company can enter the market at a time of peak technology disruption while avoiding the risk of forming the market,\" Kumar wrote.\nIt's possible that Apple could opt to make its automotive debut smaller in scale with an upgraded CarPlay system or an Apple-branded vehicle user interface for use in other manufacturer cars. However, Kumar says he expects Apple will run with a \"full-blown Apple branded electric vehicle.\"\nThat's because Apple could control every aspect of the design, including the electric vehicle hardware and the baked-in software platform.\nCiting recent reports, Kumar points out that Apple may be targeting a run of 100,000 vehicles in 2024. Based on that, he says Apple could generate about $5 billion in revenue with just less than 0.1% of the market. If it reached 1% market penetration by 2030, that could grow to $50 billion.\nThe analyst believes now is the right time for Apple to enter the car market. That's largely because it's \"primed for technological innovation,\" and the fact that Apple could use the additional revenue to drive growth as products like the iPhone and Mac reach maturity.\nEven if it does opt for an Apple-branded car, Kumar believes the company will tap a third-party manufacturer to actually produce it. Apple, he notes, doesn't assemble its own hardware products. However, Kumar says that Apple's development on vehicle tech has been in the works for years. As such, he believes the car could feature strong technology compared to rivals.\nThe biggest hurdle is Apple finding a manufacturing partner, since Kumar notes that carmakers don't want to be \"the Foxconn of the auto industry.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361605696,"gmtCreate":1614225733215,"gmtModify":1634550612644,"author":{"id":"3573996818773595","authorId":"3573996818773595","name":"Vinnce","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe9b9b9bf4dead9fed833ed9eb19e41","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573996818773595","authorIdStr":"3573996818773595"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361605696","repostId":"1158476459","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1158476459","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614223900,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158476459?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-25 11:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Salesforce Snap Out of Its Funk With Earnings?<blockquote>Salesforce Snap能否摆脱盈利的恐惧？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158476459","media":"TheStreet","summary":"With the exception of the past few days, the Nasdaq has been busy grinding out new highs. Not Salesf","content":"<p>With the exception of the past few days, the Nasdaq has been busy grinding out new highs. Not Salesforce, however.</p><p><blockquote>除了过去几天，纳斯达克一直在忙着创造新高。然而，不是Salesforce。</blockquote></p><p> While the stock hasn’t been a terrible performer, it simply hasn’t done much. Like some of its larger mega-cap tech peers such as Amazon&nbsp;Report&nbsp;or Nvidia&nbsp;Get Report, Salesforce continues to trade in a sideways manner.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该股的表现并不糟糕，但它的表现并不多。与亚马逊报告或英伟达Get报告等一些大型科技同行一样，Salesforce继续横盘交易。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are hoping that earnings on Thursday will help break it out of this consolidation. Worth mentioning is that&nbsp;Nvidia will report earnings Wednesday after the closing bell.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望周四的财报将有助于其摆脱此次整合。值得一提的是，英伟达将于周三收盘后公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> In any regard, Salesforce stock exploded higher in late August on&nbsp;better-than-expected earnings. The stock posted a 26% one-day rally in response, hitting new all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，由于盈利好于预期，Salesforce股价在8月底大幅走高。作为回应，该股单日上涨26%，创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The reaction wasn’t quite as bullish when it reported again in December, while also&nbsp;announcing the $27.7 billion acquisition&nbsp;of Slack.</p><p><blockquote>当它在12月份再次发布报告时，反应并不那么乐观，同时还宣布以277亿美元收购Slack。</blockquote></p><p> Will this time be different, or like its peers will Salesforce fail to regain momentum on earnings?</p><p><blockquote>这一次会有所不同吗？或者Salesforce是否会像同行一样无法重新获得盈利动力？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Trading Salesforce</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易Salesforce</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea01b300b52d3bba2a47bb875f9c9b9\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"736\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Since popping to its highs in August, Salesforce stock has been putting in a giant bull flag pattern, consolidating in a series of lower highs and lower lows.</p><p><blockquote>自8月份触及高点以来，Salesforce股票一直处于巨大的牛旗形态，在一系列较低的高点和较低的低点中盘整。</blockquote></p><p> Even if the post-earnings reaction isn’t a robust move to the upside, bulls can secure a victory as long as the stock doesn’t go on to make new lows. Or at least, that’s the case in my mind.</p><p><blockquote>即使财报发布后的反应不是强劲的上行，只要该股不继续创下新低，多头就可以确保胜利。或者至少，在我看来是这样。</blockquote></p><p> After reclaiming the 50-day moving average at the start of the month, Salesforce stock is finding this measure as support.</p><p><blockquote>在本月初收复50日移动平均线后，Salesforce股票找到了这一指标作为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, it’s below the 10-day and 21-day moving averages, with the latter acting as resistance.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，它低于10日和21日移动平均线，后者充当阻力位。</blockquote></p><p> If the reaction is bearish, bulls want to see the 200-day moving average and the $216 area act as support. If the latter is in play, so too might the most recent low from January, at $213.70.</p><p><blockquote>如果反应看跌，多头希望看到200日均线和216美元区域作为支撑。如果后者发挥作用，那么1月份以来的最新低点213.70美元也可能发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> We&nbsp;<i>could</i>&nbsp;see a slight undercut of this level before the stock quickly reclaims it. That’s about the only “new low” scenario that would be acceptable, but let's not get too in-depth on the hypotheticals.</p><p><blockquote>我们<i>可以</i>在该股迅速收复该水平之前，预计该水平会略有下跌。这是唯一可以接受的“新低”情景，但我们不要太深入地讨论这些假设。</blockquote></p><p> Below $213.70 and channel support is on the table.</p><p><blockquote>低于213.70美元，通道支撑已摆在桌面上。</blockquote></p><p> On a bullish reaction, I’d love to see Salesforce stock break out over channel resistance and clear the February highs near $250.</p><p><blockquote>在看涨反应中，我希望看到Salesforce股票突破通道阻力并突破250美元附近的2月份高点。</blockquote></p><p> That could put $270 in play, followed by the all-time high up at $284.50.</p><p><blockquote>这可能会使270美元发挥作用，随后将达到284.50美元的历史高点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Salesforce Snap Out of Its Funk With Earnings?<blockquote>Salesforce Snap能否摆脱盈利的恐惧？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Salesforce Snap Out of Its Funk With Earnings?<blockquote>Salesforce Snap能否摆脱盈利的恐惧？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-25 11:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With the exception of the past few days, the Nasdaq has been busy grinding out new highs. Not Salesforce, however.</p><p><blockquote>除了过去几天，纳斯达克一直在忙着创造新高。然而，不是Salesforce。</blockquote></p><p> While the stock hasn’t been a terrible performer, it simply hasn’t done much. Like some of its larger mega-cap tech peers such as Amazon&nbsp;Report&nbsp;or Nvidia&nbsp;Get Report, Salesforce continues to trade in a sideways manner.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该股的表现并不糟糕，但它的表现并不多。与亚马逊报告或英伟达Get报告等一些大型科技同行一样，Salesforce继续横盘交易。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are hoping that earnings on Thursday will help break it out of this consolidation. Worth mentioning is that&nbsp;Nvidia will report earnings Wednesday after the closing bell.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望周四的财报将有助于其摆脱此次整合。值得一提的是，英伟达将于周三收盘后公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> In any regard, Salesforce stock exploded higher in late August on&nbsp;better-than-expected earnings. The stock posted a 26% one-day rally in response, hitting new all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，由于盈利好于预期，Salesforce股价在8月底大幅走高。作为回应，该股单日上涨26%，创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The reaction wasn’t quite as bullish when it reported again in December, while also&nbsp;announcing the $27.7 billion acquisition&nbsp;of Slack.</p><p><blockquote>当它在12月份再次发布报告时，反应并不那么乐观，同时还宣布以277亿美元收购Slack。</blockquote></p><p> Will this time be different, or like its peers will Salesforce fail to regain momentum on earnings?</p><p><blockquote>这一次会有所不同吗？或者Salesforce是否会像同行一样无法重新获得盈利动力？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Trading Salesforce</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易Salesforce</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea01b300b52d3bba2a47bb875f9c9b9\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"736\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Since popping to its highs in August, Salesforce stock has been putting in a giant bull flag pattern, consolidating in a series of lower highs and lower lows.</p><p><blockquote>自8月份触及高点以来，Salesforce股票一直处于巨大的牛旗形态，在一系列较低的高点和较低的低点中盘整。</blockquote></p><p> Even if the post-earnings reaction isn’t a robust move to the upside, bulls can secure a victory as long as the stock doesn’t go on to make new lows. Or at least, that’s the case in my mind.</p><p><blockquote>即使财报发布后的反应不是强劲的上行，只要该股不继续创下新低，多头就可以确保胜利。或者至少，在我看来是这样。</blockquote></p><p> After reclaiming the 50-day moving average at the start of the month, Salesforce stock is finding this measure as support.</p><p><blockquote>在本月初收复50日移动平均线后，Salesforce股票找到了这一指标作为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, it’s below the 10-day and 21-day moving averages, with the latter acting as resistance.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，它低于10日和21日移动平均线，后者充当阻力位。</blockquote></p><p> If the reaction is bearish, bulls want to see the 200-day moving average and the $216 area act as support. If the latter is in play, so too might the most recent low from January, at $213.70.</p><p><blockquote>如果反应看跌，多头希望看到200日均线和216美元区域作为支撑。如果后者发挥作用，那么1月份以来的最新低点213.70美元也可能发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> We&nbsp;<i>could</i>&nbsp;see a slight undercut of this level before the stock quickly reclaims it. That’s about the only “new low” scenario that would be acceptable, but let's not get too in-depth on the hypotheticals.</p><p><blockquote>我们<i>可以</i>在该股迅速收复该水平之前，预计该水平会略有下跌。这是唯一可以接受的“新低”情景，但我们不要太深入地讨论这些假设。</blockquote></p><p> Below $213.70 and channel support is on the table.</p><p><blockquote>低于213.70美元，通道支撑已摆在桌面上。</blockquote></p><p> On a bullish reaction, I’d love to see Salesforce stock break out over channel resistance and clear the February highs near $250.</p><p><blockquote>在看涨反应中，我希望看到Salesforce股票突破通道阻力并突破250美元附近的2月份高点。</blockquote></p><p> That could put $270 in play, followed by the all-time high up at $284.50.</p><p><blockquote>这可能会使270美元发挥作用，随后将达到284.50美元的历史高点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/salesforce-crm-stock-earnings-preview-trading-022421\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRM":"赛富时"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/salesforce-crm-stock-earnings-preview-trading-022421","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158476459","content_text":"With the exception of the past few days, the Nasdaq has been busy grinding out new highs. Not Salesforce, however.\nWhile the stock hasn’t been a terrible performer, it simply hasn’t done much. Like some of its larger mega-cap tech peers such as Amazon Report or Nvidia Get Report, Salesforce continues to trade in a sideways manner.\nInvestors are hoping that earnings on Thursday will help break it out of this consolidation. Worth mentioning is that Nvidia will report earnings Wednesday after the closing bell. \nIn any regard, Salesforce stock exploded higher in late August on better-than-expected earnings. The stock posted a 26% one-day rally in response, hitting new all-time highs.\nThe reaction wasn’t quite as bullish when it reported again in December, while also announcing the $27.7 billion acquisition of Slack.\nWill this time be different, or like its peers will Salesforce fail to regain momentum on earnings?\nTrading Salesforce\n\nSince popping to its highs in August, Salesforce stock has been putting in a giant bull flag pattern, consolidating in a series of lower highs and lower lows.\nEven if the post-earnings reaction isn’t a robust move to the upside, bulls can secure a victory as long as the stock doesn’t go on to make new lows. Or at least, that’s the case in my mind.\nAfter reclaiming the 50-day moving average at the start of the month, Salesforce stock is finding this measure as support.\nOn the flip side, it’s below the 10-day and 21-day moving averages, with the latter acting as resistance.\nIf the reaction is bearish, bulls want to see the 200-day moving average and the $216 area act as support. If the latter is in play, so too might the most recent low from January, at $213.70.\nWe could see a slight undercut of this level before the stock quickly reclaims it. That’s about the only “new low” scenario that would be acceptable, but let's not get too in-depth on the hypotheticals.\nBelow $213.70 and channel support is on the table.\nOn a bullish reaction, I’d love to see Salesforce stock break out over channel resistance and clear the February highs near $250.\nThat could put $270 in play, followed by the all-time high up at $284.50.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361605829,"gmtCreate":1614225717761,"gmtModify":1634550612764,"author":{"id":"3573996818773595","authorId":"3573996818773595","name":"Vinnce","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe9b9b9bf4dead9fed833ed9eb19e41","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573996818773595","authorIdStr":"3573996818773595"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361605829","repostId":"2114318459","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361605399,"gmtCreate":1614225704211,"gmtModify":1634550612885,"author":{"id":"3573996818773595","authorId":"3573996818773595","name":"Vinnce","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe9b9b9bf4dead9fed833ed9eb19e41","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573996818773595","authorIdStr":"3573996818773595"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361605399","repostId":"1144266648","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":361605696,"gmtCreate":1614225733215,"gmtModify":1634550612644,"author":{"id":"3573996818773595","authorId":"3573996818773595","name":"Vinnce","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe9b9b9bf4dead9fed833ed9eb19e41","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573996818773595","idStr":"3573996818773595"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361605696","repostId":"1158476459","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1158476459","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614223900,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158476459?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-25 11:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Salesforce Snap Out of Its Funk With Earnings?<blockquote>Salesforce Snap能否摆脱盈利的恐惧？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158476459","media":"TheStreet","summary":"With the exception of the past few days, the Nasdaq has been busy grinding out new highs. Not Salesf","content":"<p>With the exception of the past few days, the Nasdaq has been busy grinding out new highs. Not Salesforce, however.</p><p><blockquote>除了过去几天，纳斯达克一直在忙着创造新高。然而，不是Salesforce。</blockquote></p><p> While the stock hasn’t been a terrible performer, it simply hasn’t done much. Like some of its larger mega-cap tech peers such as Amazon&nbsp;Report&nbsp;or Nvidia&nbsp;Get Report, Salesforce continues to trade in a sideways manner.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该股的表现并不糟糕，但它的表现并不多。与亚马逊报告或英伟达Get报告等一些大型科技同行一样，Salesforce继续横盘交易。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are hoping that earnings on Thursday will help break it out of this consolidation. Worth mentioning is that&nbsp;Nvidia will report earnings Wednesday after the closing bell.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望周四的财报将有助于其摆脱此次整合。值得一提的是，英伟达将于周三收盘后公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> In any regard, Salesforce stock exploded higher in late August on&nbsp;better-than-expected earnings. The stock posted a 26% one-day rally in response, hitting new all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，由于盈利好于预期，Salesforce股价在8月底大幅走高。作为回应，该股单日上涨26%，创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The reaction wasn’t quite as bullish when it reported again in December, while also&nbsp;announcing the $27.7 billion acquisition&nbsp;of Slack.</p><p><blockquote>当它在12月份再次发布报告时，反应并不那么乐观，同时还宣布以277亿美元收购Slack。</blockquote></p><p> Will this time be different, or like its peers will Salesforce fail to regain momentum on earnings?</p><p><blockquote>这一次会有所不同吗？或者Salesforce是否会像同行一样无法重新获得盈利动力？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Trading Salesforce</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易Salesforce</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea01b300b52d3bba2a47bb875f9c9b9\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"736\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Since popping to its highs in August, Salesforce stock has been putting in a giant bull flag pattern, consolidating in a series of lower highs and lower lows.</p><p><blockquote>自8月份触及高点以来，Salesforce股票一直处于巨大的牛旗形态，在一系列较低的高点和较低的低点中盘整。</blockquote></p><p> Even if the post-earnings reaction isn’t a robust move to the upside, bulls can secure a victory as long as the stock doesn’t go on to make new lows. Or at least, that’s the case in my mind.</p><p><blockquote>即使财报发布后的反应不是强劲的上行，只要该股不继续创下新低，多头就可以确保胜利。或者至少，在我看来是这样。</blockquote></p><p> After reclaiming the 50-day moving average at the start of the month, Salesforce stock is finding this measure as support.</p><p><blockquote>在本月初收复50日移动平均线后，Salesforce股票找到了这一指标作为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, it’s below the 10-day and 21-day moving averages, with the latter acting as resistance.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，它低于10日和21日移动平均线，后者充当阻力位。</blockquote></p><p> If the reaction is bearish, bulls want to see the 200-day moving average and the $216 area act as support. If the latter is in play, so too might the most recent low from January, at $213.70.</p><p><blockquote>如果反应看跌，多头希望看到200日均线和216美元区域作为支撑。如果后者发挥作用，那么1月份以来的最新低点213.70美元也可能发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> We&nbsp;<i>could</i>&nbsp;see a slight undercut of this level before the stock quickly reclaims it. That’s about the only “new low” scenario that would be acceptable, but let's not get too in-depth on the hypotheticals.</p><p><blockquote>我们<i>可以</i>在该股迅速收复该水平之前，预计该水平会略有下跌。这是唯一可以接受的“新低”情景，但我们不要太深入地讨论这些假设。</blockquote></p><p> Below $213.70 and channel support is on the table.</p><p><blockquote>低于213.70美元，通道支撑已摆在桌面上。</blockquote></p><p> On a bullish reaction, I’d love to see Salesforce stock break out over channel resistance and clear the February highs near $250.</p><p><blockquote>在看涨反应中，我希望看到Salesforce股票突破通道阻力并突破250美元附近的2月份高点。</blockquote></p><p> That could put $270 in play, followed by the all-time high up at $284.50.</p><p><blockquote>这可能会使270美元发挥作用，随后将达到284.50美元的历史高点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Salesforce Snap Out of Its Funk With Earnings?<blockquote>Salesforce Snap能否摆脱盈利的恐惧？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Salesforce Snap Out of Its Funk With Earnings?<blockquote>Salesforce Snap能否摆脱盈利的恐惧？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-25 11:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With the exception of the past few days, the Nasdaq has been busy grinding out new highs. Not Salesforce, however.</p><p><blockquote>除了过去几天，纳斯达克一直在忙着创造新高。然而，不是Salesforce。</blockquote></p><p> While the stock hasn’t been a terrible performer, it simply hasn’t done much. Like some of its larger mega-cap tech peers such as Amazon&nbsp;Report&nbsp;or Nvidia&nbsp;Get Report, Salesforce continues to trade in a sideways manner.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该股的表现并不糟糕，但它的表现并不多。与亚马逊报告或英伟达Get报告等一些大型科技同行一样，Salesforce继续横盘交易。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are hoping that earnings on Thursday will help break it out of this consolidation. Worth mentioning is that&nbsp;Nvidia will report earnings Wednesday after the closing bell.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望周四的财报将有助于其摆脱此次整合。值得一提的是，英伟达将于周三收盘后公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> In any regard, Salesforce stock exploded higher in late August on&nbsp;better-than-expected earnings. The stock posted a 26% one-day rally in response, hitting new all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，由于盈利好于预期，Salesforce股价在8月底大幅走高。作为回应，该股单日上涨26%，创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The reaction wasn’t quite as bullish when it reported again in December, while also&nbsp;announcing the $27.7 billion acquisition&nbsp;of Slack.</p><p><blockquote>当它在12月份再次发布报告时，反应并不那么乐观，同时还宣布以277亿美元收购Slack。</blockquote></p><p> Will this time be different, or like its peers will Salesforce fail to regain momentum on earnings?</p><p><blockquote>这一次会有所不同吗？或者Salesforce是否会像同行一样无法重新获得盈利动力？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Trading Salesforce</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易Salesforce</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea01b300b52d3bba2a47bb875f9c9b9\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"736\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Since popping to its highs in August, Salesforce stock has been putting in a giant bull flag pattern, consolidating in a series of lower highs and lower lows.</p><p><blockquote>自8月份触及高点以来，Salesforce股票一直处于巨大的牛旗形态，在一系列较低的高点和较低的低点中盘整。</blockquote></p><p> Even if the post-earnings reaction isn’t a robust move to the upside, bulls can secure a victory as long as the stock doesn’t go on to make new lows. Or at least, that’s the case in my mind.</p><p><blockquote>即使财报发布后的反应不是强劲的上行，只要该股不继续创下新低，多头就可以确保胜利。或者至少，在我看来是这样。</blockquote></p><p> After reclaiming the 50-day moving average at the start of the month, Salesforce stock is finding this measure as support.</p><p><blockquote>在本月初收复50日移动平均线后，Salesforce股票找到了这一指标作为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, it’s below the 10-day and 21-day moving averages, with the latter acting as resistance.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，它低于10日和21日移动平均线，后者充当阻力位。</blockquote></p><p> If the reaction is bearish, bulls want to see the 200-day moving average and the $216 area act as support. If the latter is in play, so too might the most recent low from January, at $213.70.</p><p><blockquote>如果反应看跌，多头希望看到200日均线和216美元区域作为支撑。如果后者发挥作用，那么1月份以来的最新低点213.70美元也可能发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> We&nbsp;<i>could</i>&nbsp;see a slight undercut of this level before the stock quickly reclaims it. That’s about the only “new low” scenario that would be acceptable, but let's not get too in-depth on the hypotheticals.</p><p><blockquote>我们<i>可以</i>在该股迅速收复该水平之前，预计该水平会略有下跌。这是唯一可以接受的“新低”情景，但我们不要太深入地讨论这些假设。</blockquote></p><p> Below $213.70 and channel support is on the table.</p><p><blockquote>低于213.70美元，通道支撑已摆在桌面上。</blockquote></p><p> On a bullish reaction, I’d love to see Salesforce stock break out over channel resistance and clear the February highs near $250.</p><p><blockquote>在看涨反应中，我希望看到Salesforce股票突破通道阻力并突破250美元附近的2月份高点。</blockquote></p><p> That could put $270 in play, followed by the all-time high up at $284.50.</p><p><blockquote>这可能会使270美元发挥作用，随后将达到284.50美元的历史高点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/salesforce-crm-stock-earnings-preview-trading-022421\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRM":"赛富时"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/salesforce-crm-stock-earnings-preview-trading-022421","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158476459","content_text":"With the exception of the past few days, the Nasdaq has been busy grinding out new highs. Not Salesforce, however.\nWhile the stock hasn’t been a terrible performer, it simply hasn’t done much. Like some of its larger mega-cap tech peers such as Amazon Report or Nvidia Get Report, Salesforce continues to trade in a sideways manner.\nInvestors are hoping that earnings on Thursday will help break it out of this consolidation. Worth mentioning is that Nvidia will report earnings Wednesday after the closing bell. \nIn any regard, Salesforce stock exploded higher in late August on better-than-expected earnings. The stock posted a 26% one-day rally in response, hitting new all-time highs.\nThe reaction wasn’t quite as bullish when it reported again in December, while also announcing the $27.7 billion acquisition of Slack.\nWill this time be different, or like its peers will Salesforce fail to regain momentum on earnings?\nTrading Salesforce\n\nSince popping to its highs in August, Salesforce stock has been putting in a giant bull flag pattern, consolidating in a series of lower highs and lower lows.\nEven if the post-earnings reaction isn’t a robust move to the upside, bulls can secure a victory as long as the stock doesn’t go on to make new lows. Or at least, that’s the case in my mind.\nAfter reclaiming the 50-day moving average at the start of the month, Salesforce stock is finding this measure as support.\nOn the flip side, it’s below the 10-day and 21-day moving averages, with the latter acting as resistance.\nIf the reaction is bearish, bulls want to see the 200-day moving average and the $216 area act as support. If the latter is in play, so too might the most recent low from January, at $213.70.\nWe could see a slight undercut of this level before the stock quickly reclaims it. That’s about the only “new low” scenario that would be acceptable, but let's not get too in-depth on the hypotheticals.\nBelow $213.70 and channel support is on the table.\nOn a bullish reaction, I’d love to see Salesforce stock break out over channel resistance and clear the February highs near $250.\nThat could put $270 in play, followed by the all-time high up at $284.50.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382976492,"gmtCreate":1613356283416,"gmtModify":1631889333327,"author":{"id":"3573996818773595","authorId":"3573996818773595","name":"Vinnce","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe9b9b9bf4dead9fed833ed9eb19e41","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573996818773595","idStr":"3573996818773595"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F10.SI\">$F J BENJAMIN HOLDINGS LTD(F10.SI)$</a>How","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F10.SI\">$F J BENJAMIN HOLDINGS LTD(F10.SI)$</a>How","text":"$F J BENJAMIN HOLDINGS LTD(F10.SI)$How","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24e1b8b83412c70f5ab7d80cfca293cc","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382976492","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":884,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382685160,"gmtCreate":1613441850750,"gmtModify":1634553674553,"author":{"id":"3573996818773595","authorId":"3573996818773595","name":"Vinnce","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe9b9b9bf4dead9fed833ed9eb19e41","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573996818773595","idStr":"3573996818773595"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382685160","repostId":"1185344045","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185344045","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613440524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185344045?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 09:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185344045","media":"Barrons","summary":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk","content":"<p>It is likely that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500科技硬件、存储和外围设备指数很可能陷入泡沫，面临破裂的风险。</blockquote></p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p><blockquote>这是我从哈佛大学三位研究人员的一项研究中得出的结论：罗宾·格林伍德(Robin Greenwood)，金融和银行学教授，担任该机构行为金融和金融稳定项目的主席；经济学教授安德烈·施莱弗；还有杨友，博士。候选人。在他们发表在《金融经济学杂志》2019年1月号上的研究“Fama的泡沫”中，他们分析了1926年以来的美国股市历史，以寻找预测即将破裂的泡沫的方法。</blockquote></p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).</p><p><blockquote>应用研究人员得出的公式，我计算出在未来两年的某个时候，技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数有80%的可能性比现在低40%。该行业一些较知名的公司包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）、希捷科技（STX）和西部数据（WDC）。</blockquote></p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p><blockquote>尽管没有其他行业符合研究人员对泡沫的定义，但另外两个行业接近泡沫。他们也在技术领域：半导体和半导体设备，以及软件。</blockquote></p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>为什么要关注一个可能存在泡沫的行业，而不是整个市场？格林伍德教授告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他和他的研究同事从对泡沫历史的研究中了解到，泡沫“很少是市场范围内的”事件。他说，更常见的是，即使其他行业仍然被低估，市场的某些部分也会出现泡沫。</blockquote></p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在互联网泡沫（所有泡沫之母）的顶峰时期，情况确实如此。格林伍德提醒我们，尽管互联网股票在20世纪90年代末和2000年代初飙升至令人震惊的估值，但市场的其他板块——尤其是价值股——要么估值合理，甚至被低估。在伴随互联网泡沫股票破裂的熊市期间，其他一些行业实际上有所上涨。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员将泡沫定义为任何两年回报率比整体市场至少高出100个百分点的行业。这确实是一个高标准——在1926年至2016年间拥有绩效数据的所有行业中，只有40个行业在这90年期间的任何时候都满足这一定义。</blockquote></p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p><blockquote>当然，并不是所有的泡沫都会破裂，那些破裂的泡沫也不总是马上破裂。研究人员在这里也强加了一个严格的先决条件：一旦一个行业满足了他们对泡沫的定义，如果在随后的两年内，该行业至少损失了40%的价值，他们就认为该行业已经破裂。在满足研究人员泡沫定义的40个行业中，有21个（即53%）破裂。</blockquote></p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，假设未来和过去一样：任何在任何两年内跑赢市场100个百分点的行业在接下来的两年里损失40%或更多的可能性略高于二分之一。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员还研究了当他们收紧或放松对泡沫的定义时，崩盘的概率是如何变化的。当他们将标准设定为仅领先市场50个百分点而不是100个百分点时，崩盘的几率降至仅20%。当他们将标准收紧到150个百分点时，崩溃的概率上升到了80%。</blockquote></p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>后一种概率适用于技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数。根据FactSet的数据，过去两年，它的表现优于标准普尔500指数151个百分点。</blockquote></p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易将教授们的公式应用于个别证券，就像我自己过去所做的那样。例如，2017年11月，我用这个公式论证了比特币撞车的几率大于80%。在接下来的12个月里，它下跌了67%。2020年2月，我再次使用教授们的公式来论证特斯拉(TSLA)崩溃的几率为80%。该股在接下来的六周内下跌了59%。</blockquote></p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p><blockquote>当然，从那时起，特斯拉和比特币就像许多其他飞涨的资产一样飙升。我问格林伍德，我是否应该再次预测他们崩溃的可能性很高？他表示反对，强调需要进一步研究影响个股崩盘几率的各种因素。</blockquote></p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他补充说，他认为不仅整个股市被高估，而且市场中的个别部分也“存在令人难以置信的泡沫”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 09:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is likely that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500科技硬件、存储和外围设备指数很可能陷入泡沫，面临破裂的风险。</blockquote></p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p><blockquote>这是我从哈佛大学三位研究人员的一项研究中得出的结论：罗宾·格林伍德(Robin Greenwood)，金融和银行学教授，担任该机构行为金融和金融稳定项目的主席；经济学教授安德烈·施莱弗；还有杨友，博士。候选人。在他们发表在《金融经济学杂志》2019年1月号上的研究“Fama的泡沫”中，他们分析了1926年以来的美国股市历史，以寻找预测即将破裂的泡沫的方法。</blockquote></p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).</p><p><blockquote>应用研究人员得出的公式，我计算出在未来两年的某个时候，技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数有80%的可能性比现在低40%。该行业一些较知名的公司包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）、希捷科技（STX）和西部数据（WDC）。</blockquote></p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p><blockquote>尽管没有其他行业符合研究人员对泡沫的定义，但另外两个行业接近泡沫。他们也在技术领域：半导体和半导体设备，以及软件。</blockquote></p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>为什么要关注一个可能存在泡沫的行业，而不是整个市场？格林伍德教授告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他和他的研究同事从对泡沫历史的研究中了解到，泡沫“很少是市场范围内的”事件。他说，更常见的是，即使其他行业仍然被低估，市场的某些部分也会出现泡沫。</blockquote></p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在互联网泡沫（所有泡沫之母）的顶峰时期，情况确实如此。格林伍德提醒我们，尽管互联网股票在20世纪90年代末和2000年代初飙升至令人震惊的估值，但市场的其他板块——尤其是价值股——要么估值合理，甚至被低估。在伴随互联网泡沫股票破裂的熊市期间，其他一些行业实际上有所上涨。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员将泡沫定义为任何两年回报率比整体市场至少高出100个百分点的行业。这确实是一个高标准——在1926年至2016年间拥有绩效数据的所有行业中，只有40个行业在这90年期间的任何时候都满足这一定义。</blockquote></p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p><blockquote>当然，并不是所有的泡沫都会破裂，那些破裂的泡沫也不总是马上破裂。研究人员在这里也强加了一个严格的先决条件：一旦一个行业满足了他们对泡沫的定义，如果在随后的两年内，该行业至少损失了40%的价值，他们就认为该行业已经破裂。在满足研究人员泡沫定义的40个行业中，有21个（即53%）破裂。</blockquote></p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，假设未来和过去一样：任何在任何两年内跑赢市场100个百分点的行业在接下来的两年里损失40%或更多的可能性略高于二分之一。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员还研究了当他们收紧或放松对泡沫的定义时，崩盘的概率是如何变化的。当他们将标准设定为仅领先市场50个百分点而不是100个百分点时，崩盘的几率降至仅20%。当他们将标准收紧到150个百分点时，崩溃的概率上升到了80%。</blockquote></p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>后一种概率适用于技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数。根据FactSet的数据，过去两年，它的表现优于标准普尔500指数151个百分点。</blockquote></p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易将教授们的公式应用于个别证券，就像我自己过去所做的那样。例如，2017年11月，我用这个公式论证了比特币撞车的几率大于80%。在接下来的12个月里，它下跌了67%。2020年2月，我再次使用教授们的公式来论证特斯拉(TSLA)崩溃的几率为80%。该股在接下来的六周内下跌了59%。</blockquote></p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p><blockquote>当然，从那时起，特斯拉和比特币就像许多其他飞涨的资产一样飙升。我问格林伍德，我是否应该再次预测他们崩溃的可能性很高？他表示反对，强调需要进一步研究影响个股崩盘几率的各种因素。</blockquote></p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他补充说，他认为不仅整个股市被高估，而且市场中的个别部分也“存在令人难以置信的泡沫”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STX":"希捷科技",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TSLA":"特斯拉","WDC":"西部数据","AAPL":"苹果",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185344045","content_text":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and Western Digital(WDC).Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood toldBarron’sthat he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 151 percentage points.One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? 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