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Pres1
2021-06-21
Tell me your opinion about this news...
Twilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并实现盈利</blockquote>
Pres1
2021-06-19
[Duh]
3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote>
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me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167737400","repostId":"1107200738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107200738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624266640,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107200738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 17:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Twilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并实现盈利</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107200738","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTwilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Twilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and it would fizzle out when reopening takes centre stage.</li> <li>Meanwhile, the company has continued to build on its strength through numerous key acquisitions, among which the Segment deal stood out as the most important.</li> <li>As a result of third-party cookies deprecation, companies would likely need Twilio even more moving forward.</li> <li>At its current valuations and its high DBNER of 133%, investors should take advantage of the recent price weakness to gain access to Twilio now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615c999acf1acd79840514a42f3c4521\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Drew Angerer/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Twilio 被误解为只受益于 COVID-19 顺风的股票，当重新开放成为焦点时，它就会失败。</li><li>与此同时，该公司通过多项重要收购继续增强实力，其中分部交易是最重要的。</li><li>由于第三方cookies的弃用，公司可能需要Twilio更进一步。</li><li>鉴于其目前的估值和 133% 的高 DBNER，投资者现在应该利用近期价格疲软的机会购买 Twilio。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德鲁·安格勒/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NewsInvestment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新闻投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors have misunderstood Twilio’s (TWLO) business model due to its unprofitability even as it delivered industry leading revenue growth metrics. While it may have yet to be EBIT profitable, the company is setting itself up to be the CPaaS leader with a top notch customer engagement platform, following its acquisition of the No.1 Customer Data Platform [CDP] in the world: Segment. Investors should understand by now that the secular tailwinds driving digitisation are not going to reverse, and therefore TWLO is in a prime position to benefit as the platform for the world on their customer engagement needs. Add on the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, companies would likely find TWLO even more important in their customer engagement efforts moving forward. At its current valuation, investors should find that TWLO may actually be valued at a discount to many of the stocks listed in the SaaS space.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者误解了 Twilio (TWLO) 的商业模式，因为它无法盈利，尽管它实现了行业领先的收入增长指标。虽然它可能尚未实现息税前利润，但在收购了全球排名第一的客户数据平台[CDP]：Segment后，该公司正在通过一流的客户参与平台将自己打造成CPaaS领导者。投资者现在应该明白，推动数字化的长期顺风不会逆转，因此TWLO处于有利地位，作为全球客户参与需求的平台。再加上第三方cookies即将被弃用，公司可能会发现TWLO在未来的客户参与工作中更加重要。按照目前的估值，投资者应该会发现 TWLO 的估值实际上可能低于 SaaS 领域上市的许多股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Twilio is Not your Typical SaaS Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Twilio 不是典型的 SaaS 股票</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec3449de8bbaa50dabd8b4343c41583\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>DBNER. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德布纳。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Twilio’s value proposition as a CPaaS is unlike the typical SaaS company that makes the most of its revenue through recurring subscriptions, and increase or maintain their DBNER or DBNRR by cross-selling into other products or up-selling their customers by taking on more seats. TWLO’s revenue is mainly based on usage. Therefore the company makes more revenue when customers use its platform more, and make less when customers use it less. Therefore, because it’s based on usage we could easily determine the strength of its customers' usage simply by observing its DBNER trend.TWLO’s DBNER “increases when such Active Customer Accounts increase their usage of a product, extend their usage of a product to new applications or adopt a new product. Twilio’s Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate decreases when such Active Customer Accounts cease or reduce their usage of a product or when the Company lowers usage prices on a product.”</p><p><blockquote>Twilio 作为 CPaaS 的价值主张不同于典型的 SaaS 公司，后者通过定期订阅获得大部分收入，并通过交叉销售其他产品或通过占用更多席位向客户追加销售来增加或维持其 DBNER 或 DBNRR。TWLO 的收入主要基于使用量。因此，当客户更多地使用其平台时，该公司会赚取更多收入，而当客户更少使用其平台时，该公司会赚取更少收入。因此，由于 TWLO 是基于使用量的，我们只需观察其 DBNER 趋势，就能轻松确定其客户的使用强度。TWLO 的 DBNER “当此类活跃客户账户增加产品使用量、将产品使用量扩展到新应用或采用新产品时，TWLO 的 DBNER 就会增加。当此类活跃客户账户停止或减少产品使用量，或公司降低产品使用量价格时，TWLO 以美元计算的净增长率就会下降”。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we could clearly observe from TWLO’s strong DBNER trend that its customers have been consistently increasing their net usage of its platform over the years, which actually already begun before COVID-19 hit. TWLO’s DBNER has been largely consistent as well and the company was also confident of achieving a normalized DBNER in the range of 130s moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们可以从 TWLO 强劲的 DBNER 趋势中清楚地观察到，多年来，其客户对其平台的净使用量一直在不断增加，而这实际上在 COVID-19 来袭之前就已经开始了。TWLO 的 DBNER 也基本保持稳定，该公司也有信心在未来实现 130 度范围内的标准化 DBNER。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the company has also highlighted that it continued to see increased use cases in its platform in many industries, and in particular in telehealth, which is another market that has been wrongly perceived to be only a COVID-19 phenomenon that has no sustainability. We have previously covered in a recent article on Teladoc (TDOC) on why telehealth’s rapid growth has begun well before the pandemic hit and is still very early in its growth phase as the market is expected to grow by more than 20% CAGR over the next 10 years. Therefore the secular tailwinds that are driving digitisation across many different industries would also drive increased business to TWLO as the market’s leading cloud communications and customer engagement platform.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司还强调，其平台在许多行业的用例继续增加，特别是在远程医疗领域，这是另一个被错误地认为只是没有可持续性的新冠肺炎现象的市场。我们曾在 Teladoc (TDOC) 最近的一篇文章中介绍过，为什么远程医疗的快速增长早在大流行病来袭之前就已经开始了，而且仍处于增长阶段，因为预计未来 10 年市场的复合年增长率将超过 20%。因此，推动许多不同行业数字化的长期顺风也将推动 TWLO 作为市场领先的云通信和客户参与平台的业务增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ecc737bf53e45f2b6a58e0d2121279\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR. Source: Atom Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR。资料来源：Atom Finance</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This is especially so when we look across the SaaS space. Investors would be hard-pressed to find many companies that boast a NRR that has been consistently above 130% like TWLO (median: 120%). Another company that also uses usage-based pricing: Snowflake (SNOW) had a NRR of 168% in the latest quarter. Investors may think that these companies that adopt usage-based pricing may suffer if their customers drop off their usage rates drastically. However, TWLO and SNOW have both proven that their platforms are so sticky and offer so much value that once you are on it, you would keep using it more and more over time, and also expand usage into new products. Therefore, this usage-based pricing model has an inherently powerful booster to the company’s topline as use-cases kept increasing, something that a typical subscription-based ARR model may not be able to replicate without a usage-based model.</p><p><blockquote>当我们放眼SaaS领域时，尤其如此。投资者将很难找到许多像 TWLO（中位数：120%）那样拥有 NRR 一直高于 130% 的公司。另一家也使用基于使用的定价的公司：Snowflake (SNOW) 最近一个季度的 NRR 为 168%。投资者可能会认为，如果客户大幅降低使用率，这些采用基于使用量定价的公司可能会遭受损失。然而，TWLO和SNOW都证明了他们的平台是如此的粘性，并提供了如此多的价值，以至于一旦你在上面，随着时间的推移，你会越来越多地使用它，并将使用扩展到新产品中。因此，随着用例的不断增加，这种基于使用情况的定价模式对公司的营收有内在的强大推动作用，而如果没有基于使用情况的模式，典型的基于订阅的 ARR 模式可能无法复制这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Truly Underestimated Segment's Acquisition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场真正被低估的细分市场收购</b></blockquote></p><p> In our opinion, we think the market really underplayed Segment’s acquisition for TWLO. First, Segment is the No.1 CDP worldwide ranked by IDC, so we think TWLO has done an amazing deal there. In fact, the company emphasized how important they thought the acquisition meant to them (emphasis by us):</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，市场确实低估了 Segment 对 TWLO 的收购。首先，Segment 是 IDC 排名全球第一的 CDP，因此我们认为 TWLO 在那里做了一笔惊人的交易。事实上，该公司强调了他们认为此次收购对他们意味着多么重要（我们强调）：</blockquote></p><p> We think the <b>industrial logic of Segment plus Twilio is just a -- it's not just a home run.It's a grand slam</b>. I think for us, having data capabilities married with communications capabilities is absolutely essential to deliver that rich customer experience. Notwithstanding the significant dilution funded from the mostly equity deal, I think investors should understand the strategic importance of having the best-of-breed CDP in its portfolio, which is crucially important to TWLO’s underlying CPaaS offering as it now confers its customers the access to real-time analytics with a unified view across disparate systems.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为<b>Segment plus Twilio 的工业逻辑只是一个——它不仅仅是一个全垒打。这是个大满贯</b>我认为对我们来说，数据能力与通信能力相结合对于提供丰富的客户体验是绝对必要的。尽管主要是股权交易提供了大幅稀释资金，但我认为投资者应该了解在其投资组合中拥有同类最佳 CDP 的战略重要性，这对 TWLO 的基础 CPaaS 产品至关重要，因为它现在可以让客户在不同的系统中以统一的视图访问实时分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfb70f9acdfe008ff26825a2894a4c7\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"544\"><span>Level of impact of CDP on success metrics. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; Treasure Data</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CDP对成功指标的影响程度。数据来源：广告商认知；宝藏数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above survey conducted with marketers across different industries on the profound impact of having a CDP in their marketing KPIs. The large majority of the respondents noted an improvement across all the metrics listed in this survey with a remarkably high percentage of the respondents (33% to 45%) indicating “significant improvement” in the respective categories.</p><p><blockquote>从上述对不同行业的营销人员进行的调查中，我们可以观察到在他们的营销KPI中设置CDP的深远影响。绝大多数受访者指出，本次调查列出的所有指标都有所改善，其中非常高比例的受访者（33% 至 45%）表示各自类别有 “显著改善”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b908f65bb3623fd3ba2b147e803f8e7\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"520\"><span>Benefits of CDP according to marketing technology decision makers. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; UniFida</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>营销技术决策者对CDP的好处。数据来源：广告商认知；统一</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, 49% of the respondents also indicated that the CDP allowed them to unify data across multiple sources, which they regarded as the most important benefit. Twilio also highlighted the importance of this as it added that “consumers are no longer tied to just one form of communication, and they expect companies to pull together disparate interactions to deliver increasingly personalized content based on what they’re doing -- anytime, anywhere, and over their preferred channels.”</p><p><blockquote>此外，49%的受访者还表示，CDP允许他们统一多个来源的数据，他们认为这是最重要的好处。Twilio 还强调了这一点的重要性，并补充说 “消费者不再局限于一种沟通形式，他们希望公司能够将不同的互动结合起来，根据他们的工作--随时随地，通过他们喜欢的渠道--提供越来越个性化的内容”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc20b41946569e8afa10fb1ef39a90f\" tg-width=\"1262\" tg-height=\"768\"><span>Measures undertaken by marketers from the U.S. to counter the impact of the deprecation of third-party cookies. Data source: Epsilon; Adweek; Phronesis Partners</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国营销人员为应对弃用第三方cookies的影响而采取的措施。数据来源：Epsilon；广告周；Phronesis合作伙伴</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, with the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, marketers have been looking for ways to cushion the impact of this loss, and the majority of them (67.3%) have been building a CDP. CDPs primarily collects and use first-party data, which is really the most important sources of customer data as it offers the most accurate and actionable insights, and also the one that is least vulnerable to privacy regulations, a point that was also acknowledged by TWLO when asked whether TWLO saw any tailwind on privacy regulations due to its first-party data access, of which the company replied:</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着第三方cookies即将弃用，营销人员一直在寻找缓冲这种损失影响的方法，他们中的大多数人（67.3%）一直在建立CDP。CDPs 主要收集和使用第一方数据，这确实是客户数据最重要的来源，因为它提供了最准确、最可操作的见解，也是最不容易受到隐私法规影响的来源，TWLO 也承认了这一点当被问及 TWLO 是否由于其第一方数据访问而看到了隐私法规的任何顺风时，该公司回答道：</blockquote></p><p> 100%. I think you hit the nail on that actually and effectively answered your own question. I think they're very much on the right side of this. I mean they are very, very strong data stewards. They're kind of a privacy-first company. I think even in the EU, some of the trends in geodynamics also play in their favor. And so I do think data and data regulations is a potential tailwind for them, yes. <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f2d9eb714512b81b6ae70b957a82d4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Share of organizations collaborating with others to share first-party data in the U.S. Data source: Winterberry Group; LiveRamp</span></p><p><blockquote>100%.我认为你切中要害，实际上有效地回答了你自己的问题。我认为他们是非常正确的。我的意思是他们是非常非常强大的数据管理者。他们是一家隐私第一的公司。我认为即使在欧盟，地球动力学的一些趋势也对他们有利。所以我确实认为数据和数据法规对他们来说是一个潜在的推动力，是的。<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>与他人合作共享美国第一方数据的组织份额数据来源：Winterberry Group；活放大器</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to further underscore the importance of first-party data, we could see that 64.3% of companies had collaborative arrangements to share first-party data while 16.7% had plans to do so. In a post-cookie world, I believe organizations would even need to be more proactive in its data gathering and analytics efforts, and having a CDP like Segment to help in this would be absolutely critical.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步强调第一方数据的重要性，我们可以看到64.3%的公司有共享第一方数据的合作安排，而16.7%的公司有这样做的计划。在后cookie时代，我相信组织甚至需要在数据收集和分析工作中更加积极主动，拥有一个像CDP这样的部门来帮助这一点绝对至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yes, We Know That The Company Is Still Unprofitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是的，我们知道公司仍然没有盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2871e7911997921fe11150b8d0e30\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"734\"><span>EBIT margin, SG&A margin, R&D margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>息税前利润率、SG&A利润率、R&D利润率。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, investors should be reminded that TWLO has yet to turn an operating profit, even though the company has guided to a long term operating margin of 28% over time. Investors should understand that TWLO would also not be expected to turn an operating profit anytime soon as the company is still in a heavy investment mode (as seen in its high SG&A and R&D margins) as it sees a lot of opportunities to invest and also possibly acquire, where it had made a number of high profile acquisitions such as Segment, ValueFirst, Syniverse, Zipwhip among others. The company strongly emphasized this point:</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，应该提醒投资者，尽管该公司随着时间的推移将长期营业利润率定为 28%，但 TWLO 尚未实现营业利润。投资者应该明白，预计 TWLO 也不会很快实现营业利润，因为该公司仍处于大量投资模式（从其高 SG&A 和研发利润率可以看出），因为它看到了大量投资和可能收购的机会，它已经进行了许多备受瞩目的收购，例如 Segment、ValueFirst、Syniverse、Zipwhip 等。公司强烈强调了这一点：</blockquote></p><p> But that doesn't mean that we won't be profitable, can't be profitable. I mean, we're growing at very elevated levels, certainly better than our corporate average, if you will. It's just that the rest of our business is growing really fast, right? So for it to really show up in our financials, based on our current trajectory, something else would have to slow down, which is not what we want. It's not what you want. It's not what anybody wants really, right? So I think in due course, all these things will happen. Therefore, TWLO investors are asked to demonstrate lots of patience, give time for TWLO to grow into its profitability and allow them to continue scaling up its revenue growth first. Consensus estimates see the company continuing to grow rapidly at about 44.5% YoY for FY 21 and also above 30% YoY subsequently. TWLO has also committed to grow its revenue above 30% for the next four years, so investors need to give TWLO time to deliver the goods, and this stock is therefore not for short term investors who are looking for a 2 to 3 year horizon, or a company that is prioritizing profitability over growth.</p><p><blockquote>但这并不意味着我们不会盈利，不能盈利。我的意思是，我们的发展水平非常高，如果你愿意的话，肯定比我们的公司平均水平要好。只是我们其他的业务增长真的很快，对吧？因此，根据我们目前的轨迹，为了让它真正出现在我们的财务状况中，其他事情必须放缓，这不是我们想要的。这不是你想要的。这不是任何人真正想要的，对吧？所以我认为在适当的时候，所有这些事情都会发生。因此，TWLO 投资者被要求表现出极大的耐心，给 TWLO 时间实现盈利，并允许他们首先继续扩大收入增长。普遍估计，该公司 21 财年将继续快速增长，同比增长约 44.5%，随后同比增长也将超过 30%。TWLO 还承诺在未来四年内将收入增长 30% 以上，因此投资者需要给 TWLO 时间来交付货物，因此这只股票不适合寻求 2 至 3 年期限的短期投资者，或优先考虑盈利而不是增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1059052c9408212d41ace9bed94cdd4a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"698\"><span>Revenue metrics. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>收入指标。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd552d195006ab4d2b5bb01567a6fdf\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"590\"><span>SaaS EV / 2021 Rev.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS EV/2021修订版。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77dea7178c4b94d74a75bc24aab22561\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"701\"><span>TWLO EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>TWLO EV / Fwd Rev. 数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider TWLO’s EV / FY+1 multiple of 20.6x against the SaaS median of 26.3x, it may be reasonably argued that TWLO doesn’t look expensive. It’s also important to note that TWLO is also expected to grow rapidly where we expect to see its multiple fall significantly over time (assuming its EV stays constant, which of course will unlikely to be the case if TWLO continues to deliver its high growth strategies). We are pretty sure that there are many more companies within the SaaS space that are valued at a much higher premium and yet with a slower expected revenue growth profile.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到 TWLO 的 EV / FY+1 倍数为 20.6 倍，而 SaaS 的中位数为 26.3 倍时，可以合理地认为 TWLO 看起来并不昂贵。值得注意的是，TWLO 预计也将快速增长，但随着时间的推移，我们预计其倍数将大幅下降（假设其电动汽车保持稳定，如果 TWLO 继续实施其高增长战略，当然不太可能出现这种情况）。我们非常确定，SaaS领域中有更多的公司估值更高，但预期收入增长较慢。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f626c7ad165f68d36e614c8163606c2f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We think that TWLO has a generally strong long term uptrend bias that was only interrupted once by the COVID-19 bear market over the last 3 years. The price recently found support along the 50W moving average at around $300 and the price has since gradually continued to recover from its recent slump.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为 TWLO 具有普遍强烈的长期上升趋势偏差，过去 3 年仅被 COVID-19 熊市中断过一次。价格最近在 50 瓦移动平均线 300 美元左右找到支撑，此后价格逐渐继续从最近的暴跌中复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Although we would prefer to add more positions near the $300 support level, we don’t think the current price level is expensive either, and think that investors may consider initiating or adding on to their positions at the current price level. They should however avoid adding near the $405 level as we believe that there should be near term resistance at that level. In addition, for investors who would prefer somewhat of a slight bargain, you may wait till the next retracement to test the 50W support again, of which a $320 level to add is also possible.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们更倾向于在 300 美元支撑位附近加仓，但我们也不认为当前价格水平昂贵，并认为投资者可以考虑在当前价格水平开始或加仓。然而，他们应该避免在 405 美元水平附近上涨，因为我们认为该水平应该存在近期阻力。此外，对于喜欢小幅便宜货的投资者来说，您可以等到下一次回撤再次测试 50W 支撑位，其中 320 美元的水平也是可能的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Twilio is a very high growth stock that has made revenue growth its most important priority right now as it sees tremendous growth opportunities ahead. Investors are asked to give TWLO time to grow into its expected long term profitability as the company sets itself up to be the leading player in the cloud communications and customer engagement space for companies across multiple industries.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio 是一只非常高增长的股票，它将收入增长作为目前最重要的优先事项，因为它看到了未来巨大的增长机会。随着 TWLO 将自己定位为多个行业公司云通信和客户参与领域的领先参与者，投资者被要求给 TWLO 时间来实现其预期的长期盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Twilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并实现盈利</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTwilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并实现盈利</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 17:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Twilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and it would fizzle out when reopening takes centre stage.</li> <li>Meanwhile, the company has continued to build on its strength through numerous key acquisitions, among which the Segment deal stood out as the most important.</li> <li>As a result of third-party cookies deprecation, companies would likely need Twilio even more moving forward.</li> <li>At its current valuations and its high DBNER of 133%, investors should take advantage of the recent price weakness to gain access to Twilio now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615c999acf1acd79840514a42f3c4521\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Drew Angerer/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Twilio 被误解为只受益于 COVID-19 顺风的股票，当重新开放成为焦点时，它就会失败。</li><li>与此同时，该公司通过多项重要收购继续增强实力，其中分部交易是最重要的。</li><li>由于第三方cookies的弃用，公司可能需要Twilio更进一步。</li><li>鉴于其目前的估值和 133% 的高 DBNER，投资者现在应该利用近期价格疲软的机会购买 Twilio。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德鲁·安格勒/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NewsInvestment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新闻投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors have misunderstood Twilio’s (TWLO) business model due to its unprofitability even as it delivered industry leading revenue growth metrics. While it may have yet to be EBIT profitable, the company is setting itself up to be the CPaaS leader with a top notch customer engagement platform, following its acquisition of the No.1 Customer Data Platform [CDP] in the world: Segment. Investors should understand by now that the secular tailwinds driving digitisation are not going to reverse, and therefore TWLO is in a prime position to benefit as the platform for the world on their customer engagement needs. Add on the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, companies would likely find TWLO even more important in their customer engagement efforts moving forward. At its current valuation, investors should find that TWLO may actually be valued at a discount to many of the stocks listed in the SaaS space.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者误解了 Twilio (TWLO) 的商业模式，因为它无法盈利，尽管它实现了行业领先的收入增长指标。虽然它可能尚未实现息税前利润，但在收购了全球排名第一的客户数据平台[CDP]：Segment后，该公司正在通过一流的客户参与平台将自己打造成CPaaS领导者。投资者现在应该明白，推动数字化的长期顺风不会逆转，因此TWLO处于有利地位，作为全球客户参与需求的平台。再加上第三方cookies即将被弃用，公司可能会发现TWLO在未来的客户参与工作中更加重要。按照目前的估值，投资者应该会发现 TWLO 的估值实际上可能低于 SaaS 领域上市的许多股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Twilio is Not your Typical SaaS Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Twilio 不是典型的 SaaS 股票</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec3449de8bbaa50dabd8b4343c41583\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>DBNER. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德布纳。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Twilio’s value proposition as a CPaaS is unlike the typical SaaS company that makes the most of its revenue through recurring subscriptions, and increase or maintain their DBNER or DBNRR by cross-selling into other products or up-selling their customers by taking on more seats. TWLO’s revenue is mainly based on usage. Therefore the company makes more revenue when customers use its platform more, and make less when customers use it less. Therefore, because it’s based on usage we could easily determine the strength of its customers' usage simply by observing its DBNER trend.TWLO’s DBNER “increases when such Active Customer Accounts increase their usage of a product, extend their usage of a product to new applications or adopt a new product. Twilio’s Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate decreases when such Active Customer Accounts cease or reduce their usage of a product or when the Company lowers usage prices on a product.”</p><p><blockquote>Twilio 作为 CPaaS 的价值主张不同于典型的 SaaS 公司，后者通过定期订阅获得大部分收入，并通过交叉销售其他产品或通过占用更多席位向客户追加销售来增加或维持其 DBNER 或 DBNRR。TWLO 的收入主要基于使用量。因此，当客户更多地使用其平台时，该公司会赚取更多收入，而当客户更少使用其平台时，该公司会赚取更少收入。因此，由于 TWLO 是基于使用量的，我们只需观察其 DBNER 趋势，就能轻松确定其客户的使用强度。TWLO 的 DBNER “当此类活跃客户账户增加产品使用量、将产品使用量扩展到新应用或采用新产品时，TWLO 的 DBNER 就会增加。当此类活跃客户账户停止或减少产品使用量，或公司降低产品使用量价格时，TWLO 以美元计算的净增长率就会下降”。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we could clearly observe from TWLO’s strong DBNER trend that its customers have been consistently increasing their net usage of its platform over the years, which actually already begun before COVID-19 hit. TWLO’s DBNER has been largely consistent as well and the company was also confident of achieving a normalized DBNER in the range of 130s moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们可以从 TWLO 强劲的 DBNER 趋势中清楚地观察到，多年来，其客户对其平台的净使用量一直在不断增加，而这实际上在 COVID-19 来袭之前就已经开始了。TWLO 的 DBNER 也基本保持稳定，该公司也有信心在未来实现 130 度范围内的标准化 DBNER。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the company has also highlighted that it continued to see increased use cases in its platform in many industries, and in particular in telehealth, which is another market that has been wrongly perceived to be only a COVID-19 phenomenon that has no sustainability. We have previously covered in a recent article on Teladoc (TDOC) on why telehealth’s rapid growth has begun well before the pandemic hit and is still very early in its growth phase as the market is expected to grow by more than 20% CAGR over the next 10 years. Therefore the secular tailwinds that are driving digitisation across many different industries would also drive increased business to TWLO as the market’s leading cloud communications and customer engagement platform.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司还强调，其平台在许多行业的用例继续增加，特别是在远程医疗领域，这是另一个被错误地认为只是没有可持续性的新冠肺炎现象的市场。我们曾在 Teladoc (TDOC) 最近的一篇文章中介绍过，为什么远程医疗的快速增长早在大流行病来袭之前就已经开始了，而且仍处于增长阶段，因为预计未来 10 年市场的复合年增长率将超过 20%。因此，推动许多不同行业数字化的长期顺风也将推动 TWLO 作为市场领先的云通信和客户参与平台的业务增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ecc737bf53e45f2b6a58e0d2121279\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR. Source: Atom Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR。资料来源：Atom Finance</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This is especially so when we look across the SaaS space. Investors would be hard-pressed to find many companies that boast a NRR that has been consistently above 130% like TWLO (median: 120%). Another company that also uses usage-based pricing: Snowflake (SNOW) had a NRR of 168% in the latest quarter. Investors may think that these companies that adopt usage-based pricing may suffer if their customers drop off their usage rates drastically. However, TWLO and SNOW have both proven that their platforms are so sticky and offer so much value that once you are on it, you would keep using it more and more over time, and also expand usage into new products. Therefore, this usage-based pricing model has an inherently powerful booster to the company’s topline as use-cases kept increasing, something that a typical subscription-based ARR model may not be able to replicate without a usage-based model.</p><p><blockquote>当我们放眼SaaS领域时，尤其如此。投资者将很难找到许多像 TWLO（中位数：120%）那样拥有 NRR 一直高于 130% 的公司。另一家也使用基于使用的定价的公司：Snowflake (SNOW) 最近一个季度的 NRR 为 168%。投资者可能会认为，如果客户大幅降低使用率，这些采用基于使用量定价的公司可能会遭受损失。然而，TWLO和SNOW都证明了他们的平台是如此的粘性，并提供了如此多的价值，以至于一旦你在上面，随着时间的推移，你会越来越多地使用它，并将使用扩展到新产品中。因此，随着用例的不断增加，这种基于使用情况的定价模式对公司的营收有内在的强大推动作用，而如果没有基于使用情况的模式，典型的基于订阅的 ARR 模式可能无法复制这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Truly Underestimated Segment's Acquisition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场真正被低估的细分市场收购</b></blockquote></p><p> In our opinion, we think the market really underplayed Segment’s acquisition for TWLO. First, Segment is the No.1 CDP worldwide ranked by IDC, so we think TWLO has done an amazing deal there. In fact, the company emphasized how important they thought the acquisition meant to them (emphasis by us):</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，市场确实低估了 Segment 对 TWLO 的收购。首先，Segment 是 IDC 排名全球第一的 CDP，因此我们认为 TWLO 在那里做了一笔惊人的交易。事实上，该公司强调了他们认为此次收购对他们意味着多么重要（我们强调）：</blockquote></p><p> We think the <b>industrial logic of Segment plus Twilio is just a -- it's not just a home run.It's a grand slam</b>. I think for us, having data capabilities married with communications capabilities is absolutely essential to deliver that rich customer experience. Notwithstanding the significant dilution funded from the mostly equity deal, I think investors should understand the strategic importance of having the best-of-breed CDP in its portfolio, which is crucially important to TWLO’s underlying CPaaS offering as it now confers its customers the access to real-time analytics with a unified view across disparate systems.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为<b>Segment plus Twilio 的工业逻辑只是一个——它不仅仅是一个全垒打。这是个大满贯</b>我认为对我们来说，数据能力与通信能力相结合对于提供丰富的客户体验是绝对必要的。尽管主要是股权交易提供了大幅稀释资金，但我认为投资者应该了解在其投资组合中拥有同类最佳 CDP 的战略重要性，这对 TWLO 的基础 CPaaS 产品至关重要，因为它现在可以让客户在不同的系统中以统一的视图访问实时分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfb70f9acdfe008ff26825a2894a4c7\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"544\"><span>Level of impact of CDP on success metrics. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; Treasure Data</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CDP对成功指标的影响程度。数据来源：广告商认知；宝藏数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above survey conducted with marketers across different industries on the profound impact of having a CDP in their marketing KPIs. The large majority of the respondents noted an improvement across all the metrics listed in this survey with a remarkably high percentage of the respondents (33% to 45%) indicating “significant improvement” in the respective categories.</p><p><blockquote>从上述对不同行业的营销人员进行的调查中，我们可以观察到在他们的营销KPI中设置CDP的深远影响。绝大多数受访者指出，本次调查列出的所有指标都有所改善，其中非常高比例的受访者（33% 至 45%）表示各自类别有 “显著改善”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b908f65bb3623fd3ba2b147e803f8e7\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"520\"><span>Benefits of CDP according to marketing technology decision makers. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; UniFida</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>营销技术决策者对CDP的好处。数据来源：广告商认知；统一</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, 49% of the respondents also indicated that the CDP allowed them to unify data across multiple sources, which they regarded as the most important benefit. Twilio also highlighted the importance of this as it added that “consumers are no longer tied to just one form of communication, and they expect companies to pull together disparate interactions to deliver increasingly personalized content based on what they’re doing -- anytime, anywhere, and over their preferred channels.”</p><p><blockquote>此外，49%的受访者还表示，CDP允许他们统一多个来源的数据，他们认为这是最重要的好处。Twilio 还强调了这一点的重要性，并补充说 “消费者不再局限于一种沟通形式，他们希望公司能够将不同的互动结合起来，根据他们的工作--随时随地，通过他们喜欢的渠道--提供越来越个性化的内容”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc20b41946569e8afa10fb1ef39a90f\" tg-width=\"1262\" tg-height=\"768\"><span>Measures undertaken by marketers from the U.S. to counter the impact of the deprecation of third-party cookies. Data source: Epsilon; Adweek; Phronesis Partners</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国营销人员为应对弃用第三方cookies的影响而采取的措施。数据来源：Epsilon；广告周；Phronesis合作伙伴</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, with the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, marketers have been looking for ways to cushion the impact of this loss, and the majority of them (67.3%) have been building a CDP. CDPs primarily collects and use first-party data, which is really the most important sources of customer data as it offers the most accurate and actionable insights, and also the one that is least vulnerable to privacy regulations, a point that was also acknowledged by TWLO when asked whether TWLO saw any tailwind on privacy regulations due to its first-party data access, of which the company replied:</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着第三方cookies即将弃用，营销人员一直在寻找缓冲这种损失影响的方法，他们中的大多数人（67.3%）一直在建立CDP。CDPs 主要收集和使用第一方数据，这确实是客户数据最重要的来源，因为它提供了最准确、最可操作的见解，也是最不容易受到隐私法规影响的来源，TWLO 也承认了这一点当被问及 TWLO 是否由于其第一方数据访问而看到了隐私法规的任何顺风时，该公司回答道：</blockquote></p><p> 100%. I think you hit the nail on that actually and effectively answered your own question. I think they're very much on the right side of this. I mean they are very, very strong data stewards. They're kind of a privacy-first company. I think even in the EU, some of the trends in geodynamics also play in their favor. And so I do think data and data regulations is a potential tailwind for them, yes. <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f2d9eb714512b81b6ae70b957a82d4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Share of organizations collaborating with others to share first-party data in the U.S. Data source: Winterberry Group; LiveRamp</span></p><p><blockquote>100%.我认为你切中要害，实际上有效地回答了你自己的问题。我认为他们是非常正确的。我的意思是他们是非常非常强大的数据管理者。他们是一家隐私第一的公司。我认为即使在欧盟，地球动力学的一些趋势也对他们有利。所以我确实认为数据和数据法规对他们来说是一个潜在的推动力，是的。<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>与他人合作共享美国第一方数据的组织份额数据来源：Winterberry Group；活放大器</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to further underscore the importance of first-party data, we could see that 64.3% of companies had collaborative arrangements to share first-party data while 16.7% had plans to do so. In a post-cookie world, I believe organizations would even need to be more proactive in its data gathering and analytics efforts, and having a CDP like Segment to help in this would be absolutely critical.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步强调第一方数据的重要性，我们可以看到64.3%的公司有共享第一方数据的合作安排，而16.7%的公司有这样做的计划。在后cookie时代，我相信组织甚至需要在数据收集和分析工作中更加积极主动，拥有一个像CDP这样的部门来帮助这一点绝对至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yes, We Know That The Company Is Still Unprofitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是的，我们知道公司仍然没有盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2871e7911997921fe11150b8d0e30\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"734\"><span>EBIT margin, SG&A margin, R&D margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>息税前利润率、SG&A利润率、R&D利润率。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, investors should be reminded that TWLO has yet to turn an operating profit, even though the company has guided to a long term operating margin of 28% over time. Investors should understand that TWLO would also not be expected to turn an operating profit anytime soon as the company is still in a heavy investment mode (as seen in its high SG&A and R&D margins) as it sees a lot of opportunities to invest and also possibly acquire, where it had made a number of high profile acquisitions such as Segment, ValueFirst, Syniverse, Zipwhip among others. The company strongly emphasized this point:</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，应该提醒投资者，尽管该公司随着时间的推移将长期营业利润率定为 28%，但 TWLO 尚未实现营业利润。投资者应该明白，预计 TWLO 也不会很快实现营业利润，因为该公司仍处于大量投资模式（从其高 SG&A 和研发利润率可以看出），因为它看到了大量投资和可能收购的机会，它已经进行了许多备受瞩目的收购，例如 Segment、ValueFirst、Syniverse、Zipwhip 等。公司强烈强调了这一点：</blockquote></p><p> But that doesn't mean that we won't be profitable, can't be profitable. I mean, we're growing at very elevated levels, certainly better than our corporate average, if you will. It's just that the rest of our business is growing really fast, right? So for it to really show up in our financials, based on our current trajectory, something else would have to slow down, which is not what we want. It's not what you want. It's not what anybody wants really, right? So I think in due course, all these things will happen. Therefore, TWLO investors are asked to demonstrate lots of patience, give time for TWLO to grow into its profitability and allow them to continue scaling up its revenue growth first. Consensus estimates see the company continuing to grow rapidly at about 44.5% YoY for FY 21 and also above 30% YoY subsequently. TWLO has also committed to grow its revenue above 30% for the next four years, so investors need to give TWLO time to deliver the goods, and this stock is therefore not for short term investors who are looking for a 2 to 3 year horizon, or a company that is prioritizing profitability over growth.</p><p><blockquote>但这并不意味着我们不会盈利，不能盈利。我的意思是，我们的发展水平非常高，如果你愿意的话，肯定比我们的公司平均水平要好。只是我们其他的业务增长真的很快，对吧？因此，根据我们目前的轨迹，为了让它真正出现在我们的财务状况中，其他事情必须放缓，这不是我们想要的。这不是你想要的。这不是任何人真正想要的，对吧？所以我认为在适当的时候，所有这些事情都会发生。因此，TWLO 投资者被要求表现出极大的耐心，给 TWLO 时间实现盈利，并允许他们首先继续扩大收入增长。普遍估计，该公司 21 财年将继续快速增长，同比增长约 44.5%，随后同比增长也将超过 30%。TWLO 还承诺在未来四年内将收入增长 30% 以上，因此投资者需要给 TWLO 时间来交付货物，因此这只股票不适合寻求 2 至 3 年期限的短期投资者，或优先考虑盈利而不是增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1059052c9408212d41ace9bed94cdd4a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"698\"><span>Revenue metrics. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>收入指标。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd552d195006ab4d2b5bb01567a6fdf\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"590\"><span>SaaS EV / 2021 Rev.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS EV/2021修订版。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77dea7178c4b94d74a75bc24aab22561\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"701\"><span>TWLO EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>TWLO EV / Fwd Rev. 数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider TWLO’s EV / FY+1 multiple of 20.6x against the SaaS median of 26.3x, it may be reasonably argued that TWLO doesn’t look expensive. It’s also important to note that TWLO is also expected to grow rapidly where we expect to see its multiple fall significantly over time (assuming its EV stays constant, which of course will unlikely to be the case if TWLO continues to deliver its high growth strategies). We are pretty sure that there are many more companies within the SaaS space that are valued at a much higher premium and yet with a slower expected revenue growth profile.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到 TWLO 的 EV / FY+1 倍数为 20.6 倍，而 SaaS 的中位数为 26.3 倍时，可以合理地认为 TWLO 看起来并不昂贵。值得注意的是，TWLO 预计也将快速增长，但随着时间的推移，我们预计其倍数将大幅下降（假设其电动汽车保持稳定，如果 TWLO 继续实施其高增长战略，当然不太可能出现这种情况）。我们非常确定，SaaS领域中有更多的公司估值更高，但预期收入增长较慢。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f626c7ad165f68d36e614c8163606c2f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We think that TWLO has a generally strong long term uptrend bias that was only interrupted once by the COVID-19 bear market over the last 3 years. The price recently found support along the 50W moving average at around $300 and the price has since gradually continued to recover from its recent slump.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为 TWLO 具有普遍强烈的长期上升趋势偏差，过去 3 年仅被 COVID-19 熊市中断过一次。价格最近在 50 瓦移动平均线 300 美元左右找到支撑，此后价格逐渐继续从最近的暴跌中复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Although we would prefer to add more positions near the $300 support level, we don’t think the current price level is expensive either, and think that investors may consider initiating or adding on to their positions at the current price level. They should however avoid adding near the $405 level as we believe that there should be near term resistance at that level. In addition, for investors who would prefer somewhat of a slight bargain, you may wait till the next retracement to test the 50W support again, of which a $320 level to add is also possible.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们更倾向于在 300 美元支撑位附近加仓，但我们也不认为当前价格水平昂贵，并认为投资者可以考虑在当前价格水平开始或加仓。然而，他们应该避免在 405 美元水平附近上涨，因为我们认为该水平应该存在近期阻力。此外，对于喜欢小幅便宜货的投资者来说，您可以等到下一次回撤再次测试 50W 支撑位，其中 320 美元的水平也是可能的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Twilio is a very high growth stock that has made revenue growth its most important priority right now as it sees tremendous growth opportunities ahead. Investors are asked to give TWLO time to grow into its expected long term profitability as the company sets itself up to be the leading player in the cloud communications and customer engagement space for companies across multiple industries.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio 是一只非常高增长的股票，它将收入增长作为目前最重要的优先事项，因为它看到了未来巨大的增长机会。随着 TWLO 将自己定位为多个行业公司云通信和客户参与领域的领先参与者，投资者被要求给 TWLO 时间来实现其预期的长期盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435794-twilio-investors-need-give-time-for-scale-up-and-profitable\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TWLO":"Twilio Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435794-twilio-investors-need-give-time-for-scale-up-and-profitable","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107200738","content_text":"Summary\n\nTwilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and it would fizzle out when reopening takes centre stage.\nMeanwhile, the company has continued to build on its strength through numerous key acquisitions, among which the Segment deal stood out as the most important.\nAs a result of third-party cookies deprecation, companies would likely need Twilio even more moving forward.\nAt its current valuations and its high DBNER of 133%, investors should take advantage of the recent price weakness to gain access to Twilio now.\n\nDrew Angerer/Getty Images\nNewsInvestment Thesis\nMany investors have misunderstood Twilio’s (TWLO) business model due to its unprofitability even as it delivered industry leading revenue growth metrics. While it may have yet to be EBIT profitable, the company is setting itself up to be the CPaaS leader with a top notch customer engagement platform, following its acquisition of the No.1 Customer Data Platform [CDP] in the world: Segment. Investors should understand by now that the secular tailwinds driving digitisation are not going to reverse, and therefore TWLO is in a prime position to benefit as the platform for the world on their customer engagement needs. Add on the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, companies would likely find TWLO even more important in their customer engagement efforts moving forward. At its current valuation, investors should find that TWLO may actually be valued at a discount to many of the stocks listed in the SaaS space.\nTwilio is Not your Typical SaaS Stock\nDBNER. Data source: Company filings\nTwilio’s value proposition as a CPaaS is unlike the typical SaaS company that makes the most of its revenue through recurring subscriptions, and increase or maintain their DBNER or DBNRR by cross-selling into other products or up-selling their customers by taking on more seats. TWLO’s revenue is mainly based on usage. Therefore the company makes more revenue when customers use its platform more, and make less when customers use it less. Therefore, because it’s based on usage we could easily determine the strength of its customers' usage simply by observing its DBNER trend.TWLO’s DBNER “increases when such Active Customer Accounts increase their usage of a product, extend their usage of a product to new applications or adopt a new product. Twilio’s Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate decreases when such Active Customer Accounts cease or reduce their usage of a product or when the Company lowers usage prices on a product.”\nTherefore, we could clearly observe from TWLO’s strong DBNER trend that its customers have been consistently increasing their net usage of its platform over the years, which actually already begun before COVID-19 hit. TWLO’s DBNER has been largely consistent as well and the company was also confident of achieving a normalized DBNER in the range of 130s moving forward.\nMoreover, the company has also highlighted that it continued to see increased use cases in its platform in many industries, and in particular in telehealth, which is another market that has been wrongly perceived to be only a COVID-19 phenomenon that has no sustainability. We have previously covered in a recent article on Teladoc (TDOC) on why telehealth’s rapid growth has begun well before the pandemic hit and is still very early in its growth phase as the market is expected to grow by more than 20% CAGR over the next 10 years. Therefore the secular tailwinds that are driving digitisation across many different industries would also drive increased business to TWLO as the market’s leading cloud communications and customer engagement platform.\nSaaS DBNER/DBNRR. Source: Atom Finance\nThis is especially so when we look across the SaaS space. Investors would be hard-pressed to find many companies that boast a NRR that has been consistently above 130% like TWLO (median: 120%). Another company that also uses usage-based pricing: Snowflake (SNOW) had a NRR of 168% in the latest quarter. Investors may think that these companies that adopt usage-based pricing may suffer if their customers drop off their usage rates drastically. However, TWLO and SNOW have both proven that their platforms are so sticky and offer so much value that once you are on it, you would keep using it more and more over time, and also expand usage into new products. Therefore, this usage-based pricing model has an inherently powerful booster to the company’s topline as use-cases kept increasing, something that a typical subscription-based ARR model may not be able to replicate without a usage-based model.\nMarket Truly Underestimated Segment's Acquisition\nIn our opinion, we think the market really underplayed Segment’s acquisition for TWLO. First, Segment is the No.1 CDP worldwide ranked by IDC, so we think TWLO has done an amazing deal there. In fact, the company emphasized how important they thought the acquisition meant to them (emphasis by us):\n\n We think the \n industrial logic of Segment plus Twilio is just a -- it's not just a home run.It's a grand slam. I think for us, having data capabilities married with communications capabilities is absolutely essential to deliver that rich customer experience.\n\nNotwithstanding the significant dilution funded from the mostly equity deal, I think investors should understand the strategic importance of having the best-of-breed CDP in its portfolio, which is crucially important to TWLO’s underlying CPaaS offering as it now confers its customers the access to real-time analytics with a unified view across disparate systems.\nLevel of impact of CDP on success metrics. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; Treasure Data\nWe could observe from the above survey conducted with marketers across different industries on the profound impact of having a CDP in their marketing KPIs. The large majority of the respondents noted an improvement across all the metrics listed in this survey with a remarkably high percentage of the respondents (33% to 45%) indicating “significant improvement” in the respective categories.\nBenefits of CDP according to marketing technology decision makers. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; UniFida\nIn addition, 49% of the respondents also indicated that the CDP allowed them to unify data across multiple sources, which they regarded as the most important benefit. Twilio also highlighted the importance of this as it added that “consumers are no longer tied to just one form of communication, and they expect companies to pull together disparate interactions to deliver increasingly personalized content based on what they’re doing -- anytime, anywhere, and over their preferred channels.”\nMeasures undertaken by marketers from the U.S. to counter the impact of the deprecation of third-party cookies. Data source: Epsilon; Adweek; Phronesis Partners\nMoreover, with the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, marketers have been looking for ways to cushion the impact of this loss, and the majority of them (67.3%) have been building a CDP. CDPs primarily collects and use first-party data, which is really the most important sources of customer data as it offers the most accurate and actionable insights, and also the one that is least vulnerable to privacy regulations, a point that was also acknowledged by TWLO when asked whether TWLO saw any tailwind on privacy regulations due to its first-party data access, of which the company replied:\n\n 100%. I think you hit the nail on that actually and effectively answered your own question. I think they're very much on the right side of this. I mean they are very, very strong data stewards. They're kind of a privacy-first company. I think even in the EU, some of the trends in geodynamics also play in their favor. And so I do think data and data regulations is a potential tailwind for them, yes.\n\nShare of organizations collaborating with others to share first-party data in the U.S. Data source: Winterberry Group; LiveRamp\nIn order to further underscore the importance of first-party data, we could see that 64.3% of companies had collaborative arrangements to share first-party data while 16.7% had plans to do so. In a post-cookie world, I believe organizations would even need to be more proactive in its data gathering and analytics efforts, and having a CDP like Segment to help in this would be absolutely critical.\nYes, We Know That The Company Is Still Unprofitable\nEBIT margin, SG&A margin, R&D margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNevertheless, investors should be reminded that TWLO has yet to turn an operating profit, even though the company has guided to a long term operating margin of 28% over time. Investors should understand that TWLO would also not be expected to turn an operating profit anytime soon as the company is still in a heavy investment mode (as seen in its high SG&A and R&D margins) as it sees a lot of opportunities to invest and also possibly acquire, where it had made a number of high profile acquisitions such as Segment, ValueFirst, Syniverse, Zipwhip among others. The company strongly emphasized this point:\n\n But that doesn't mean that we won't be profitable, can't be profitable. I mean, we're growing at very elevated levels, certainly better than our corporate average, if you will. It's just that the rest of our business is growing really fast, right? So for it to really show up in our financials, based on our current trajectory, something else would have to slow down, which is not what we want. It's not what you want. It's not what anybody wants really, right? So I think in due course, all these things will happen.\n\nTherefore, TWLO investors are asked to demonstrate lots of patience, give time for TWLO to grow into its profitability and allow them to continue scaling up its revenue growth first. Consensus estimates see the company continuing to grow rapidly at about 44.5% YoY for FY 21 and also above 30% YoY subsequently. TWLO has also committed to grow its revenue above 30% for the next four years, so investors need to give TWLO time to deliver the goods, and this stock is therefore not for short term investors who are looking for a 2 to 3 year horizon, or a company that is prioritizing profitability over growth.\nRevenue metrics. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nValuations\nSaaS EV / 2021 Rev.\nTWLO EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider TWLO’s EV / FY+1 multiple of 20.6x against the SaaS median of 26.3x, it may be reasonably argued that TWLO doesn’t look expensive. It’s also important to note that TWLO is also expected to grow rapidly where we expect to see its multiple fall significantly over time (assuming its EV stays constant, which of course will unlikely to be the case if TWLO continues to deliver its high growth strategies). We are pretty sure that there are many more companies within the SaaS space that are valued at a much higher premium and yet with a slower expected revenue growth profile.\nPrice Action and Technical Analysis\n\nWe think that TWLO has a generally strong long term uptrend bias that was only interrupted once by the COVID-19 bear market over the last 3 years. The price recently found support along the 50W moving average at around $300 and the price has since gradually continued to recover from its recent slump.\nAlthough we would prefer to add more positions near the $300 support level, we don’t think the current price level is expensive either, and think that investors may consider initiating or adding on to their positions at the current price level. They should however avoid adding near the $405 level as we believe that there should be near term resistance at that level. In addition, for investors who would prefer somewhat of a slight bargain, you may wait till the next retracement to test the 50W support again, of which a $320 level to add is also possible.\nWrapping It All Up\nTwilio is a very high growth stock that has made revenue growth its most important priority right now as it sees tremendous growth opportunities ahead. Investors are asked to give TWLO time to grow into its expected long term profitability as the company sets itself up to be the leading player in the cloud communications and customer engagement space for companies across multiple industries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TWLO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165073982,"gmtCreate":1624083503346,"gmtModify":1634010864426,"author":{"id":"3574230745337822","authorId":"3574230745337822","name":"Pres1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2b73492ce4a3c8b87eebe05a2ca7db","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574230745337822","authorIdStr":"3574230745337822"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Duh] ","listText":"[Duh] ","text":"[Duh]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165073982","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票一直风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可能会下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的在线狂热不会持续。以下是华尔街认为未来 12 个月内将暴跌 20% 以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近 2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的 90%。即使是 Refinitiv 调查的最乐观的分析师也对 AMC 的目标价比当前股价低 70% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在好转吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC 可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远领先于其业务前景。该股的交易价格比 COVID-19 大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like <b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，它看起来像<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将 AMC 推到最热门的模因股票一边。散户投资者将三叶草视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨势不会持续。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health 的估值似乎确实失控了。该医疗保健股票目前的交易价格是过去 12 个月销售额的 170 多倍。这是一个令人鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health 今年仍有可能实现更好的财务业绩。该公司希望通过瞄准最初的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员数量。除了目前的 Medicare Advantage 业务之外，这代表着一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷生长器</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year, <b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷生长器</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票中最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过 520%，然后回吐了大部分涨幅。然而，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻股可能会进一步下跌。Sundial 的一致目标价较其当前股价折扣 23%。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能会下跌 55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对 Sundial 的核心大麻业务感到悲观。2021年第一季度，该公司的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管 Sundial 正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial 的商业交易可能会让投资者有理由乐观。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司在第一季度公布了正调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润 (EBITDA)。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the <b>Nasdaq</b> stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial 用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，而不得不采取孤注一掷的措施来维持其上市<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票一直风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可能会下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的在线狂热不会持续。以下是华尔街认为未来 12 个月内将暴跌 20% 以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近 2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的 90%。即使是 Refinitiv 调查的最乐观的分析师也对 AMC 的目标价比当前股价低 70% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在好转吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC 可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远领先于其业务前景。该股的交易价格比 COVID-19 大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like <b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，它看起来像<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将 AMC 推到最热门的模因股票一边。散户投资者将三叶草视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨势不会持续。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health 的估值似乎确实失控了。该医疗保健股票目前的交易价格是过去 12 个月销售额的 170 多倍。这是一个令人鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health 今年仍有可能实现更好的财务业绩。该公司希望通过瞄准最初的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员数量。除了目前的 Medicare Advantage 业务之外，这代表着一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷生长器</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year, <b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷生长器</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票中最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过 520%，然后回吐了大部分涨幅。然而，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻股可能会进一步下跌。Sundial 的一致目标价较其当前股价折扣 23%。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能会下跌 55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对 Sundial 的核心大麻业务感到悲观。2021年第一季度，该公司的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管 Sundial 正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial 的商业交易可能会让投资者有理由乐观。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司在第一季度公布了正调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润 (EBITDA)。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the <b>Nasdaq</b> stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial 用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，而不得不采取孤注一掷的措施来维持其上市<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"SNDL":0.9,"CLOV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":165073982,"gmtCreate":1624083503346,"gmtModify":1634010864426,"author":{"id":"3574230745337822","authorId":"3574230745337822","name":"Pres1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2b73492ce4a3c8b87eebe05a2ca7db","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574230745337822","idStr":"3574230745337822"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Duh] ","listText":"[Duh] ","text":"[Duh]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165073982","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票一直风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可能会下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的在线狂热不会持续。以下是华尔街认为未来 12 个月内将暴跌 20% 以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近 2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的 90%。即使是 Refinitiv 调查的最乐观的分析师也对 AMC 的目标价比当前股价低 70% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在好转吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC 可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远领先于其业务前景。该股的交易价格比 COVID-19 大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like <b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，它看起来像<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将 AMC 推到最热门的模因股票一边。散户投资者将三叶草视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨势不会持续。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health 的估值似乎确实失控了。该医疗保健股票目前的交易价格是过去 12 个月销售额的 170 多倍。这是一个令人鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health 今年仍有可能实现更好的财务业绩。该公司希望通过瞄准最初的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员数量。除了目前的 Medicare Advantage 业务之外，这代表着一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷生长器</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year, <b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷生长器</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票中最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过 520%，然后回吐了大部分涨幅。然而，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻股可能会进一步下跌。Sundial 的一致目标价较其当前股价折扣 23%。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能会下跌 55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对 Sundial 的核心大麻业务感到悲观。2021年第一季度，该公司的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管 Sundial 正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial 的商业交易可能会让投资者有理由乐观。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司在第一季度公布了正调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润 (EBITDA)。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the <b>Nasdaq</b> stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial 用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，而不得不采取孤注一掷的措施来维持其上市<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票一直风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可能会下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的在线狂热不会持续。以下是华尔街认为未来 12 个月内将暴跌 20% 以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近 2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的 90%。即使是 Refinitiv 调查的最乐观的分析师也对 AMC 的目标价比当前股价低 70% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在好转吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC 可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远领先于其业务前景。该股的交易价格比 COVID-19 大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like <b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，它看起来像<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将 AMC 推到最热门的模因股票一边。散户投资者将三叶草视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨势不会持续。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health 的估值似乎确实失控了。该医疗保健股票目前的交易价格是过去 12 个月销售额的 170 多倍。这是一个令人鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health 今年仍有可能实现更好的财务业绩。该公司希望通过瞄准最初的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员数量。除了目前的 Medicare Advantage 业务之外，这代表着一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷生长器</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year, <b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷生长器</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票中最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过 520%，然后回吐了大部分涨幅。然而，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻股可能会进一步下跌。Sundial 的一致目标价较其当前股价折扣 23%。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能会下跌 55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对 Sundial 的核心大麻业务感到悲观。2021年第一季度，该公司的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管 Sundial 正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial 的商业交易可能会让投资者有理由乐观。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司在第一季度公布了正调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润 (EBITDA)。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the <b>Nasdaq</b> stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial 用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，而不得不采取孤注一掷的措施来维持其上市<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"SNDL":0.9,"CLOV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167737400,"gmtCreate":1624284432500,"gmtModify":1634008404084,"author":{"id":"3574230745337822","authorId":"3574230745337822","name":"Pres1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2b73492ce4a3c8b87eebe05a2ca7db","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574230745337822","idStr":"3574230745337822"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167737400","repostId":"1107200738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107200738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624266640,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107200738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 17:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Twilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并实现盈利</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107200738","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTwilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Twilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and it would fizzle out when reopening takes centre stage.</li> <li>Meanwhile, the company has continued to build on its strength through numerous key acquisitions, among which the Segment deal stood out as the most important.</li> <li>As a result of third-party cookies deprecation, companies would likely need Twilio even more moving forward.</li> <li>At its current valuations and its high DBNER of 133%, investors should take advantage of the recent price weakness to gain access to Twilio now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615c999acf1acd79840514a42f3c4521\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Drew Angerer/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Twilio 被误解为只受益于 COVID-19 顺风的股票，当重新开放成为焦点时，它就会失败。</li><li>与此同时，该公司通过多项重要收购继续增强实力，其中分部交易是最重要的。</li><li>由于第三方cookies的弃用，公司可能需要Twilio更进一步。</li><li>鉴于其目前的估值和 133% 的高 DBNER，投资者现在应该利用近期价格疲软的机会购买 Twilio。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德鲁·安格勒/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NewsInvestment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新闻投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors have misunderstood Twilio’s (TWLO) business model due to its unprofitability even as it delivered industry leading revenue growth metrics. While it may have yet to be EBIT profitable, the company is setting itself up to be the CPaaS leader with a top notch customer engagement platform, following its acquisition of the No.1 Customer Data Platform [CDP] in the world: Segment. Investors should understand by now that the secular tailwinds driving digitisation are not going to reverse, and therefore TWLO is in a prime position to benefit as the platform for the world on their customer engagement needs. Add on the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, companies would likely find TWLO even more important in their customer engagement efforts moving forward. At its current valuation, investors should find that TWLO may actually be valued at a discount to many of the stocks listed in the SaaS space.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者误解了 Twilio (TWLO) 的商业模式，因为它无法盈利，尽管它实现了行业领先的收入增长指标。虽然它可能尚未实现息税前利润，但在收购了全球排名第一的客户数据平台[CDP]：Segment后，该公司正在通过一流的客户参与平台将自己打造成CPaaS领导者。投资者现在应该明白，推动数字化的长期顺风不会逆转，因此TWLO处于有利地位，作为全球客户参与需求的平台。再加上第三方cookies即将被弃用，公司可能会发现TWLO在未来的客户参与工作中更加重要。按照目前的估值，投资者应该会发现 TWLO 的估值实际上可能低于 SaaS 领域上市的许多股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Twilio is Not your Typical SaaS Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Twilio 不是典型的 SaaS 股票</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec3449de8bbaa50dabd8b4343c41583\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>DBNER. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德布纳。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Twilio’s value proposition as a CPaaS is unlike the typical SaaS company that makes the most of its revenue through recurring subscriptions, and increase or maintain their DBNER or DBNRR by cross-selling into other products or up-selling their customers by taking on more seats. TWLO’s revenue is mainly based on usage. Therefore the company makes more revenue when customers use its platform more, and make less when customers use it less. Therefore, because it’s based on usage we could easily determine the strength of its customers' usage simply by observing its DBNER trend.TWLO’s DBNER “increases when such Active Customer Accounts increase their usage of a product, extend their usage of a product to new applications or adopt a new product. Twilio’s Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate decreases when such Active Customer Accounts cease or reduce their usage of a product or when the Company lowers usage prices on a product.”</p><p><blockquote>Twilio 作为 CPaaS 的价值主张不同于典型的 SaaS 公司，后者通过定期订阅获得大部分收入，并通过交叉销售其他产品或通过占用更多席位向客户追加销售来增加或维持其 DBNER 或 DBNRR。TWLO 的收入主要基于使用量。因此，当客户更多地使用其平台时，该公司会赚取更多收入，而当客户更少使用其平台时，该公司会赚取更少收入。因此，由于 TWLO 是基于使用量的，我们只需观察其 DBNER 趋势，就能轻松确定其客户的使用强度。TWLO 的 DBNER “当此类活跃客户账户增加产品使用量、将产品使用量扩展到新应用或采用新产品时，TWLO 的 DBNER 就会增加。当此类活跃客户账户停止或减少产品使用量，或公司降低产品使用量价格时，TWLO 以美元计算的净增长率就会下降”。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we could clearly observe from TWLO’s strong DBNER trend that its customers have been consistently increasing their net usage of its platform over the years, which actually already begun before COVID-19 hit. TWLO’s DBNER has been largely consistent as well and the company was also confident of achieving a normalized DBNER in the range of 130s moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们可以从 TWLO 强劲的 DBNER 趋势中清楚地观察到，多年来，其客户对其平台的净使用量一直在不断增加，而这实际上在 COVID-19 来袭之前就已经开始了。TWLO 的 DBNER 也基本保持稳定，该公司也有信心在未来实现 130 度范围内的标准化 DBNER。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the company has also highlighted that it continued to see increased use cases in its platform in many industries, and in particular in telehealth, which is another market that has been wrongly perceived to be only a COVID-19 phenomenon that has no sustainability. We have previously covered in a recent article on Teladoc (TDOC) on why telehealth’s rapid growth has begun well before the pandemic hit and is still very early in its growth phase as the market is expected to grow by more than 20% CAGR over the next 10 years. Therefore the secular tailwinds that are driving digitisation across many different industries would also drive increased business to TWLO as the market’s leading cloud communications and customer engagement platform.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司还强调，其平台在许多行业的用例继续增加，特别是在远程医疗领域，这是另一个被错误地认为只是没有可持续性的新冠肺炎现象的市场。我们曾在 Teladoc (TDOC) 最近的一篇文章中介绍过，为什么远程医疗的快速增长早在大流行病来袭之前就已经开始了，而且仍处于增长阶段，因为预计未来 10 年市场的复合年增长率将超过 20%。因此，推动许多不同行业数字化的长期顺风也将推动 TWLO 作为市场领先的云通信和客户参与平台的业务增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ecc737bf53e45f2b6a58e0d2121279\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR. Source: Atom Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR。资料来源：Atom Finance</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This is especially so when we look across the SaaS space. Investors would be hard-pressed to find many companies that boast a NRR that has been consistently above 130% like TWLO (median: 120%). Another company that also uses usage-based pricing: Snowflake (SNOW) had a NRR of 168% in the latest quarter. Investors may think that these companies that adopt usage-based pricing may suffer if their customers drop off their usage rates drastically. However, TWLO and SNOW have both proven that their platforms are so sticky and offer so much value that once you are on it, you would keep using it more and more over time, and also expand usage into new products. Therefore, this usage-based pricing model has an inherently powerful booster to the company’s topline as use-cases kept increasing, something that a typical subscription-based ARR model may not be able to replicate without a usage-based model.</p><p><blockquote>当我们放眼SaaS领域时，尤其如此。投资者将很难找到许多像 TWLO（中位数：120%）那样拥有 NRR 一直高于 130% 的公司。另一家也使用基于使用的定价的公司：Snowflake (SNOW) 最近一个季度的 NRR 为 168%。投资者可能会认为，如果客户大幅降低使用率，这些采用基于使用量定价的公司可能会遭受损失。然而，TWLO和SNOW都证明了他们的平台是如此的粘性，并提供了如此多的价值，以至于一旦你在上面，随着时间的推移，你会越来越多地使用它，并将使用扩展到新产品中。因此，随着用例的不断增加，这种基于使用情况的定价模式对公司的营收有内在的强大推动作用，而如果没有基于使用情况的模式，典型的基于订阅的 ARR 模式可能无法复制这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Truly Underestimated Segment's Acquisition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场真正被低估的细分市场收购</b></blockquote></p><p> In our opinion, we think the market really underplayed Segment’s acquisition for TWLO. First, Segment is the No.1 CDP worldwide ranked by IDC, so we think TWLO has done an amazing deal there. In fact, the company emphasized how important they thought the acquisition meant to them (emphasis by us):</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，市场确实低估了 Segment 对 TWLO 的收购。首先，Segment 是 IDC 排名全球第一的 CDP，因此我们认为 TWLO 在那里做了一笔惊人的交易。事实上，该公司强调了他们认为此次收购对他们意味着多么重要（我们强调）：</blockquote></p><p> We think the <b>industrial logic of Segment plus Twilio is just a -- it's not just a home run.It's a grand slam</b>. I think for us, having data capabilities married with communications capabilities is absolutely essential to deliver that rich customer experience. Notwithstanding the significant dilution funded from the mostly equity deal, I think investors should understand the strategic importance of having the best-of-breed CDP in its portfolio, which is crucially important to TWLO’s underlying CPaaS offering as it now confers its customers the access to real-time analytics with a unified view across disparate systems.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为<b>Segment plus Twilio 的工业逻辑只是一个——它不仅仅是一个全垒打。这是个大满贯</b>我认为对我们来说，数据能力与通信能力相结合对于提供丰富的客户体验是绝对必要的。尽管主要是股权交易提供了大幅稀释资金，但我认为投资者应该了解在其投资组合中拥有同类最佳 CDP 的战略重要性，这对 TWLO 的基础 CPaaS 产品至关重要，因为它现在可以让客户在不同的系统中以统一的视图访问实时分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfb70f9acdfe008ff26825a2894a4c7\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"544\"><span>Level of impact of CDP on success metrics. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; Treasure Data</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CDP对成功指标的影响程度。数据来源：广告商认知；宝藏数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above survey conducted with marketers across different industries on the profound impact of having a CDP in their marketing KPIs. The large majority of the respondents noted an improvement across all the metrics listed in this survey with a remarkably high percentage of the respondents (33% to 45%) indicating “significant improvement” in the respective categories.</p><p><blockquote>从上述对不同行业的营销人员进行的调查中，我们可以观察到在他们的营销KPI中设置CDP的深远影响。绝大多数受访者指出，本次调查列出的所有指标都有所改善，其中非常高比例的受访者（33% 至 45%）表示各自类别有 “显著改善”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b908f65bb3623fd3ba2b147e803f8e7\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"520\"><span>Benefits of CDP according to marketing technology decision makers. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; UniFida</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>营销技术决策者对CDP的好处。数据来源：广告商认知；统一</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, 49% of the respondents also indicated that the CDP allowed them to unify data across multiple sources, which they regarded as the most important benefit. Twilio also highlighted the importance of this as it added that “consumers are no longer tied to just one form of communication, and they expect companies to pull together disparate interactions to deliver increasingly personalized content based on what they’re doing -- anytime, anywhere, and over their preferred channels.”</p><p><blockquote>此外，49%的受访者还表示，CDP允许他们统一多个来源的数据，他们认为这是最重要的好处。Twilio 还强调了这一点的重要性，并补充说 “消费者不再局限于一种沟通形式，他们希望公司能够将不同的互动结合起来，根据他们的工作--随时随地，通过他们喜欢的渠道--提供越来越个性化的内容”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc20b41946569e8afa10fb1ef39a90f\" tg-width=\"1262\" tg-height=\"768\"><span>Measures undertaken by marketers from the U.S. to counter the impact of the deprecation of third-party cookies. Data source: Epsilon; Adweek; Phronesis Partners</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国营销人员为应对弃用第三方cookies的影响而采取的措施。数据来源：Epsilon；广告周；Phronesis合作伙伴</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, with the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, marketers have been looking for ways to cushion the impact of this loss, and the majority of them (67.3%) have been building a CDP. CDPs primarily collects and use first-party data, which is really the most important sources of customer data as it offers the most accurate and actionable insights, and also the one that is least vulnerable to privacy regulations, a point that was also acknowledged by TWLO when asked whether TWLO saw any tailwind on privacy regulations due to its first-party data access, of which the company replied:</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着第三方cookies即将弃用，营销人员一直在寻找缓冲这种损失影响的方法，他们中的大多数人（67.3%）一直在建立CDP。CDPs 主要收集和使用第一方数据，这确实是客户数据最重要的来源，因为它提供了最准确、最可操作的见解，也是最不容易受到隐私法规影响的来源，TWLO 也承认了这一点当被问及 TWLO 是否由于其第一方数据访问而看到了隐私法规的任何顺风时，该公司回答道：</blockquote></p><p> 100%. I think you hit the nail on that actually and effectively answered your own question. I think they're very much on the right side of this. I mean they are very, very strong data stewards. They're kind of a privacy-first company. I think even in the EU, some of the trends in geodynamics also play in their favor. And so I do think data and data regulations is a potential tailwind for them, yes. <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f2d9eb714512b81b6ae70b957a82d4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Share of organizations collaborating with others to share first-party data in the U.S. Data source: Winterberry Group; LiveRamp</span></p><p><blockquote>100%.我认为你切中要害，实际上有效地回答了你自己的问题。我认为他们是非常正确的。我的意思是他们是非常非常强大的数据管理者。他们是一家隐私第一的公司。我认为即使在欧盟，地球动力学的一些趋势也对他们有利。所以我确实认为数据和数据法规对他们来说是一个潜在的推动力，是的。<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>与他人合作共享美国第一方数据的组织份额数据来源：Winterberry Group；活放大器</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to further underscore the importance of first-party data, we could see that 64.3% of companies had collaborative arrangements to share first-party data while 16.7% had plans to do so. In a post-cookie world, I believe organizations would even need to be more proactive in its data gathering and analytics efforts, and having a CDP like Segment to help in this would be absolutely critical.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步强调第一方数据的重要性，我们可以看到64.3%的公司有共享第一方数据的合作安排，而16.7%的公司有这样做的计划。在后cookie时代，我相信组织甚至需要在数据收集和分析工作中更加积极主动，拥有一个像CDP这样的部门来帮助这一点绝对至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yes, We Know That The Company Is Still Unprofitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是的，我们知道公司仍然没有盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2871e7911997921fe11150b8d0e30\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"734\"><span>EBIT margin, SG&A margin, R&D margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>息税前利润率、SG&A利润率、R&D利润率。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, investors should be reminded that TWLO has yet to turn an operating profit, even though the company has guided to a long term operating margin of 28% over time. Investors should understand that TWLO would also not be expected to turn an operating profit anytime soon as the company is still in a heavy investment mode (as seen in its high SG&A and R&D margins) as it sees a lot of opportunities to invest and also possibly acquire, where it had made a number of high profile acquisitions such as Segment, ValueFirst, Syniverse, Zipwhip among others. The company strongly emphasized this point:</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，应该提醒投资者，尽管该公司随着时间的推移将长期营业利润率定为 28%，但 TWLO 尚未实现营业利润。投资者应该明白，预计 TWLO 也不会很快实现营业利润，因为该公司仍处于大量投资模式（从其高 SG&A 和研发利润率可以看出），因为它看到了大量投资和可能收购的机会，它已经进行了许多备受瞩目的收购，例如 Segment、ValueFirst、Syniverse、Zipwhip 等。公司强烈强调了这一点：</blockquote></p><p> But that doesn't mean that we won't be profitable, can't be profitable. I mean, we're growing at very elevated levels, certainly better than our corporate average, if you will. It's just that the rest of our business is growing really fast, right? So for it to really show up in our financials, based on our current trajectory, something else would have to slow down, which is not what we want. It's not what you want. It's not what anybody wants really, right? So I think in due course, all these things will happen. Therefore, TWLO investors are asked to demonstrate lots of patience, give time for TWLO to grow into its profitability and allow them to continue scaling up its revenue growth first. Consensus estimates see the company continuing to grow rapidly at about 44.5% YoY for FY 21 and also above 30% YoY subsequently. TWLO has also committed to grow its revenue above 30% for the next four years, so investors need to give TWLO time to deliver the goods, and this stock is therefore not for short term investors who are looking for a 2 to 3 year horizon, or a company that is prioritizing profitability over growth.</p><p><blockquote>但这并不意味着我们不会盈利，不能盈利。我的意思是，我们的发展水平非常高，如果你愿意的话，肯定比我们的公司平均水平要好。只是我们其他的业务增长真的很快，对吧？因此，根据我们目前的轨迹，为了让它真正出现在我们的财务状况中，其他事情必须放缓，这不是我们想要的。这不是你想要的。这不是任何人真正想要的，对吧？所以我认为在适当的时候，所有这些事情都会发生。因此，TWLO 投资者被要求表现出极大的耐心，给 TWLO 时间实现盈利，并允许他们首先继续扩大收入增长。普遍估计，该公司 21 财年将继续快速增长，同比增长约 44.5%，随后同比增长也将超过 30%。TWLO 还承诺在未来四年内将收入增长 30% 以上，因此投资者需要给 TWLO 时间来交付货物，因此这只股票不适合寻求 2 至 3 年期限的短期投资者，或优先考虑盈利而不是增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1059052c9408212d41ace9bed94cdd4a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"698\"><span>Revenue metrics. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>收入指标。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd552d195006ab4d2b5bb01567a6fdf\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"590\"><span>SaaS EV / 2021 Rev.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS EV/2021修订版。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77dea7178c4b94d74a75bc24aab22561\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"701\"><span>TWLO EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>TWLO EV / Fwd Rev. 数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider TWLO’s EV / FY+1 multiple of 20.6x against the SaaS median of 26.3x, it may be reasonably argued that TWLO doesn’t look expensive. It’s also important to note that TWLO is also expected to grow rapidly where we expect to see its multiple fall significantly over time (assuming its EV stays constant, which of course will unlikely to be the case if TWLO continues to deliver its high growth strategies). We are pretty sure that there are many more companies within the SaaS space that are valued at a much higher premium and yet with a slower expected revenue growth profile.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到 TWLO 的 EV / FY+1 倍数为 20.6 倍，而 SaaS 的中位数为 26.3 倍时，可以合理地认为 TWLO 看起来并不昂贵。值得注意的是，TWLO 预计也将快速增长，但随着时间的推移，我们预计其倍数将大幅下降（假设其电动汽车保持稳定，如果 TWLO 继续实施其高增长战略，当然不太可能出现这种情况）。我们非常确定，SaaS领域中有更多的公司估值更高，但预期收入增长较慢。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f626c7ad165f68d36e614c8163606c2f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We think that TWLO has a generally strong long term uptrend bias that was only interrupted once by the COVID-19 bear market over the last 3 years. The price recently found support along the 50W moving average at around $300 and the price has since gradually continued to recover from its recent slump.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为 TWLO 具有普遍强烈的长期上升趋势偏差，过去 3 年仅被 COVID-19 熊市中断过一次。价格最近在 50 瓦移动平均线 300 美元左右找到支撑，此后价格逐渐继续从最近的暴跌中复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Although we would prefer to add more positions near the $300 support level, we don’t think the current price level is expensive either, and think that investors may consider initiating or adding on to their positions at the current price level. They should however avoid adding near the $405 level as we believe that there should be near term resistance at that level. In addition, for investors who would prefer somewhat of a slight bargain, you may wait till the next retracement to test the 50W support again, of which a $320 level to add is also possible.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们更倾向于在 300 美元支撑位附近加仓，但我们也不认为当前价格水平昂贵，并认为投资者可以考虑在当前价格水平开始或加仓。然而，他们应该避免在 405 美元水平附近上涨，因为我们认为该水平应该存在近期阻力。此外，对于喜欢小幅便宜货的投资者来说，您可以等到下一次回撤再次测试 50W 支撑位，其中 320 美元的水平也是可能的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Twilio is a very high growth stock that has made revenue growth its most important priority right now as it sees tremendous growth opportunities ahead. Investors are asked to give TWLO time to grow into its expected long term profitability as the company sets itself up to be the leading player in the cloud communications and customer engagement space for companies across multiple industries.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio 是一只非常高增长的股票，它将收入增长作为目前最重要的优先事项，因为它看到了未来巨大的增长机会。随着 TWLO 将自己定位为多个行业公司云通信和客户参与领域的领先参与者，投资者被要求给 TWLO 时间来实现其预期的长期盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Twilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并实现盈利</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTwilio: Investors Need To Give It Time To Scale Up And Be Profitable<blockquote>Twilio：投资者需要给它时间来扩大规模并实现盈利</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 17:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Twilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and it would fizzle out when reopening takes centre stage.</li> <li>Meanwhile, the company has continued to build on its strength through numerous key acquisitions, among which the Segment deal stood out as the most important.</li> <li>As a result of third-party cookies deprecation, companies would likely need Twilio even more moving forward.</li> <li>At its current valuations and its high DBNER of 133%, investors should take advantage of the recent price weakness to gain access to Twilio now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/615c999acf1acd79840514a42f3c4521\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Drew Angerer/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Twilio 被误解为只受益于 COVID-19 顺风的股票，当重新开放成为焦点时，它就会失败。</li><li>与此同时，该公司通过多项重要收购继续增强实力，其中分部交易是最重要的。</li><li>由于第三方cookies的弃用，公司可能需要Twilio更进一步。</li><li>鉴于其目前的估值和 133% 的高 DBNER，投资者现在应该利用近期价格疲软的机会购买 Twilio。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德鲁·安格勒/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NewsInvestment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新闻投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors have misunderstood Twilio’s (TWLO) business model due to its unprofitability even as it delivered industry leading revenue growth metrics. While it may have yet to be EBIT profitable, the company is setting itself up to be the CPaaS leader with a top notch customer engagement platform, following its acquisition of the No.1 Customer Data Platform [CDP] in the world: Segment. Investors should understand by now that the secular tailwinds driving digitisation are not going to reverse, and therefore TWLO is in a prime position to benefit as the platform for the world on their customer engagement needs. Add on the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, companies would likely find TWLO even more important in their customer engagement efforts moving forward. At its current valuation, investors should find that TWLO may actually be valued at a discount to many of the stocks listed in the SaaS space.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者误解了 Twilio (TWLO) 的商业模式，因为它无法盈利，尽管它实现了行业领先的收入增长指标。虽然它可能尚未实现息税前利润，但在收购了全球排名第一的客户数据平台[CDP]：Segment后，该公司正在通过一流的客户参与平台将自己打造成CPaaS领导者。投资者现在应该明白，推动数字化的长期顺风不会逆转，因此TWLO处于有利地位，作为全球客户参与需求的平台。再加上第三方cookies即将被弃用，公司可能会发现TWLO在未来的客户参与工作中更加重要。按照目前的估值，投资者应该会发现 TWLO 的估值实际上可能低于 SaaS 领域上市的许多股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Twilio is Not your Typical SaaS Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Twilio 不是典型的 SaaS 股票</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec3449de8bbaa50dabd8b4343c41583\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>DBNER. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>德布纳。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Twilio’s value proposition as a CPaaS is unlike the typical SaaS company that makes the most of its revenue through recurring subscriptions, and increase or maintain their DBNER or DBNRR by cross-selling into other products or up-selling their customers by taking on more seats. TWLO’s revenue is mainly based on usage. Therefore the company makes more revenue when customers use its platform more, and make less when customers use it less. Therefore, because it’s based on usage we could easily determine the strength of its customers' usage simply by observing its DBNER trend.TWLO’s DBNER “increases when such Active Customer Accounts increase their usage of a product, extend their usage of a product to new applications or adopt a new product. Twilio’s Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate decreases when such Active Customer Accounts cease or reduce their usage of a product or when the Company lowers usage prices on a product.”</p><p><blockquote>Twilio 作为 CPaaS 的价值主张不同于典型的 SaaS 公司，后者通过定期订阅获得大部分收入，并通过交叉销售其他产品或通过占用更多席位向客户追加销售来增加或维持其 DBNER 或 DBNRR。TWLO 的收入主要基于使用量。因此，当客户更多地使用其平台时，该公司会赚取更多收入，而当客户更少使用其平台时，该公司会赚取更少收入。因此，由于 TWLO 是基于使用量的，我们只需观察其 DBNER 趋势，就能轻松确定其客户的使用强度。TWLO 的 DBNER “当此类活跃客户账户增加产品使用量、将产品使用量扩展到新应用或采用新产品时，TWLO 的 DBNER 就会增加。当此类活跃客户账户停止或减少产品使用量，或公司降低产品使用量价格时，TWLO 以美元计算的净增长率就会下降”。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we could clearly observe from TWLO’s strong DBNER trend that its customers have been consistently increasing their net usage of its platform over the years, which actually already begun before COVID-19 hit. TWLO’s DBNER has been largely consistent as well and the company was also confident of achieving a normalized DBNER in the range of 130s moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们可以从 TWLO 强劲的 DBNER 趋势中清楚地观察到，多年来，其客户对其平台的净使用量一直在不断增加，而这实际上在 COVID-19 来袭之前就已经开始了。TWLO 的 DBNER 也基本保持稳定，该公司也有信心在未来实现 130 度范围内的标准化 DBNER。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the company has also highlighted that it continued to see increased use cases in its platform in many industries, and in particular in telehealth, which is another market that has been wrongly perceived to be only a COVID-19 phenomenon that has no sustainability. We have previously covered in a recent article on Teladoc (TDOC) on why telehealth’s rapid growth has begun well before the pandemic hit and is still very early in its growth phase as the market is expected to grow by more than 20% CAGR over the next 10 years. Therefore the secular tailwinds that are driving digitisation across many different industries would also drive increased business to TWLO as the market’s leading cloud communications and customer engagement platform.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司还强调，其平台在许多行业的用例继续增加，特别是在远程医疗领域，这是另一个被错误地认为只是没有可持续性的新冠肺炎现象的市场。我们曾在 Teladoc (TDOC) 最近的一篇文章中介绍过，为什么远程医疗的快速增长早在大流行病来袭之前就已经开始了，而且仍处于增长阶段，因为预计未来 10 年市场的复合年增长率将超过 20%。因此，推动许多不同行业数字化的长期顺风也将推动 TWLO 作为市场领先的云通信和客户参与平台的业务增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ecc737bf53e45f2b6a58e0d2121279\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR. Source: Atom Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS DBNER/DBNRR。资料来源：Atom Finance</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This is especially so when we look across the SaaS space. Investors would be hard-pressed to find many companies that boast a NRR that has been consistently above 130% like TWLO (median: 120%). Another company that also uses usage-based pricing: Snowflake (SNOW) had a NRR of 168% in the latest quarter. Investors may think that these companies that adopt usage-based pricing may suffer if their customers drop off their usage rates drastically. However, TWLO and SNOW have both proven that their platforms are so sticky and offer so much value that once you are on it, you would keep using it more and more over time, and also expand usage into new products. Therefore, this usage-based pricing model has an inherently powerful booster to the company’s topline as use-cases kept increasing, something that a typical subscription-based ARR model may not be able to replicate without a usage-based model.</p><p><blockquote>当我们放眼SaaS领域时，尤其如此。投资者将很难找到许多像 TWLO（中位数：120%）那样拥有 NRR 一直高于 130% 的公司。另一家也使用基于使用的定价的公司：Snowflake (SNOW) 最近一个季度的 NRR 为 168%。投资者可能会认为，如果客户大幅降低使用率，这些采用基于使用量定价的公司可能会遭受损失。然而，TWLO和SNOW都证明了他们的平台是如此的粘性，并提供了如此多的价值，以至于一旦你在上面，随着时间的推移，你会越来越多地使用它，并将使用扩展到新产品中。因此，随着用例的不断增加，这种基于使用情况的定价模式对公司的营收有内在的强大推动作用，而如果没有基于使用情况的模式，典型的基于订阅的 ARR 模式可能无法复制这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Truly Underestimated Segment's Acquisition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场真正被低估的细分市场收购</b></blockquote></p><p> In our opinion, we think the market really underplayed Segment’s acquisition for TWLO. First, Segment is the No.1 CDP worldwide ranked by IDC, so we think TWLO has done an amazing deal there. In fact, the company emphasized how important they thought the acquisition meant to them (emphasis by us):</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，市场确实低估了 Segment 对 TWLO 的收购。首先，Segment 是 IDC 排名全球第一的 CDP，因此我们认为 TWLO 在那里做了一笔惊人的交易。事实上，该公司强调了他们认为此次收购对他们意味着多么重要（我们强调）：</blockquote></p><p> We think the <b>industrial logic of Segment plus Twilio is just a -- it's not just a home run.It's a grand slam</b>. I think for us, having data capabilities married with communications capabilities is absolutely essential to deliver that rich customer experience. Notwithstanding the significant dilution funded from the mostly equity deal, I think investors should understand the strategic importance of having the best-of-breed CDP in its portfolio, which is crucially important to TWLO’s underlying CPaaS offering as it now confers its customers the access to real-time analytics with a unified view across disparate systems.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为<b>Segment plus Twilio 的工业逻辑只是一个——它不仅仅是一个全垒打。这是个大满贯</b>我认为对我们来说，数据能力与通信能力相结合对于提供丰富的客户体验是绝对必要的。尽管主要是股权交易提供了大幅稀释资金，但我认为投资者应该了解在其投资组合中拥有同类最佳 CDP 的战略重要性，这对 TWLO 的基础 CPaaS 产品至关重要，因为它现在可以让客户在不同的系统中以统一的视图访问实时分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfb70f9acdfe008ff26825a2894a4c7\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"544\"><span>Level of impact of CDP on success metrics. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; Treasure Data</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CDP对成功指标的影响程度。数据来源：广告商认知；宝藏数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above survey conducted with marketers across different industries on the profound impact of having a CDP in their marketing KPIs. The large majority of the respondents noted an improvement across all the metrics listed in this survey with a remarkably high percentage of the respondents (33% to 45%) indicating “significant improvement” in the respective categories.</p><p><blockquote>从上述对不同行业的营销人员进行的调查中，我们可以观察到在他们的营销KPI中设置CDP的深远影响。绝大多数受访者指出，本次调查列出的所有指标都有所改善，其中非常高比例的受访者（33% 至 45%）表示各自类别有 “显著改善”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b908f65bb3623fd3ba2b147e803f8e7\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"520\"><span>Benefits of CDP according to marketing technology decision makers. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; UniFida</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>营销技术决策者对CDP的好处。数据来源：广告商认知；统一</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, 49% of the respondents also indicated that the CDP allowed them to unify data across multiple sources, which they regarded as the most important benefit. Twilio also highlighted the importance of this as it added that “consumers are no longer tied to just one form of communication, and they expect companies to pull together disparate interactions to deliver increasingly personalized content based on what they’re doing -- anytime, anywhere, and over their preferred channels.”</p><p><blockquote>此外，49%的受访者还表示，CDP允许他们统一多个来源的数据，他们认为这是最重要的好处。Twilio 还强调了这一点的重要性，并补充说 “消费者不再局限于一种沟通形式，他们希望公司能够将不同的互动结合起来，根据他们的工作--随时随地，通过他们喜欢的渠道--提供越来越个性化的内容”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc20b41946569e8afa10fb1ef39a90f\" tg-width=\"1262\" tg-height=\"768\"><span>Measures undertaken by marketers from the U.S. to counter the impact of the deprecation of third-party cookies. Data source: Epsilon; Adweek; Phronesis Partners</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国营销人员为应对弃用第三方cookies的影响而采取的措施。数据来源：Epsilon；广告周；Phronesis合作伙伴</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, with the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, marketers have been looking for ways to cushion the impact of this loss, and the majority of them (67.3%) have been building a CDP. CDPs primarily collects and use first-party data, which is really the most important sources of customer data as it offers the most accurate and actionable insights, and also the one that is least vulnerable to privacy regulations, a point that was also acknowledged by TWLO when asked whether TWLO saw any tailwind on privacy regulations due to its first-party data access, of which the company replied:</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着第三方cookies即将弃用，营销人员一直在寻找缓冲这种损失影响的方法，他们中的大多数人（67.3%）一直在建立CDP。CDPs 主要收集和使用第一方数据，这确实是客户数据最重要的来源，因为它提供了最准确、最可操作的见解，也是最不容易受到隐私法规影响的来源，TWLO 也承认了这一点当被问及 TWLO 是否由于其第一方数据访问而看到了隐私法规的任何顺风时，该公司回答道：</blockquote></p><p> 100%. I think you hit the nail on that actually and effectively answered your own question. I think they're very much on the right side of this. I mean they are very, very strong data stewards. They're kind of a privacy-first company. I think even in the EU, some of the trends in geodynamics also play in their favor. And so I do think data and data regulations is a potential tailwind for them, yes. <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f2d9eb714512b81b6ae70b957a82d4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Share of organizations collaborating with others to share first-party data in the U.S. Data source: Winterberry Group; LiveRamp</span></p><p><blockquote>100%.我认为你切中要害，实际上有效地回答了你自己的问题。我认为他们是非常正确的。我的意思是他们是非常非常强大的数据管理者。他们是一家隐私第一的公司。我认为即使在欧盟，地球动力学的一些趋势也对他们有利。所以我确实认为数据和数据法规对他们来说是一个潜在的推动力，是的。<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>与他人合作共享美国第一方数据的组织份额数据来源：Winterberry Group；活放大器</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to further underscore the importance of first-party data, we could see that 64.3% of companies had collaborative arrangements to share first-party data while 16.7% had plans to do so. In a post-cookie world, I believe organizations would even need to be more proactive in its data gathering and analytics efforts, and having a CDP like Segment to help in this would be absolutely critical.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步强调第一方数据的重要性，我们可以看到64.3%的公司有共享第一方数据的合作安排，而16.7%的公司有这样做的计划。在后cookie时代，我相信组织甚至需要在数据收集和分析工作中更加积极主动，拥有一个像CDP这样的部门来帮助这一点绝对至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yes, We Know That The Company Is Still Unprofitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是的，我们知道公司仍然没有盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2871e7911997921fe11150b8d0e30\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"734\"><span>EBIT margin, SG&A margin, R&D margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>息税前利润率、SG&A利润率、R&D利润率。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, investors should be reminded that TWLO has yet to turn an operating profit, even though the company has guided to a long term operating margin of 28% over time. Investors should understand that TWLO would also not be expected to turn an operating profit anytime soon as the company is still in a heavy investment mode (as seen in its high SG&A and R&D margins) as it sees a lot of opportunities to invest and also possibly acquire, where it had made a number of high profile acquisitions such as Segment, ValueFirst, Syniverse, Zipwhip among others. The company strongly emphasized this point:</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，应该提醒投资者，尽管该公司随着时间的推移将长期营业利润率定为 28%，但 TWLO 尚未实现营业利润。投资者应该明白，预计 TWLO 也不会很快实现营业利润，因为该公司仍处于大量投资模式（从其高 SG&A 和研发利润率可以看出），因为它看到了大量投资和可能收购的机会，它已经进行了许多备受瞩目的收购，例如 Segment、ValueFirst、Syniverse、Zipwhip 等。公司强烈强调了这一点：</blockquote></p><p> But that doesn't mean that we won't be profitable, can't be profitable. I mean, we're growing at very elevated levels, certainly better than our corporate average, if you will. It's just that the rest of our business is growing really fast, right? So for it to really show up in our financials, based on our current trajectory, something else would have to slow down, which is not what we want. It's not what you want. It's not what anybody wants really, right? So I think in due course, all these things will happen. Therefore, TWLO investors are asked to demonstrate lots of patience, give time for TWLO to grow into its profitability and allow them to continue scaling up its revenue growth first. Consensus estimates see the company continuing to grow rapidly at about 44.5% YoY for FY 21 and also above 30% YoY subsequently. TWLO has also committed to grow its revenue above 30% for the next four years, so investors need to give TWLO time to deliver the goods, and this stock is therefore not for short term investors who are looking for a 2 to 3 year horizon, or a company that is prioritizing profitability over growth.</p><p><blockquote>但这并不意味着我们不会盈利，不能盈利。我的意思是，我们的发展水平非常高，如果你愿意的话，肯定比我们的公司平均水平要好。只是我们其他的业务增长真的很快，对吧？因此，根据我们目前的轨迹，为了让它真正出现在我们的财务状况中，其他事情必须放缓，这不是我们想要的。这不是你想要的。这不是任何人真正想要的，对吧？所以我认为在适当的时候，所有这些事情都会发生。因此，TWLO 投资者被要求表现出极大的耐心，给 TWLO 时间实现盈利，并允许他们首先继续扩大收入增长。普遍估计，该公司 21 财年将继续快速增长，同比增长约 44.5%，随后同比增长也将超过 30%。TWLO 还承诺在未来四年内将收入增长 30% 以上，因此投资者需要给 TWLO 时间来交付货物，因此这只股票不适合寻求 2 至 3 年期限的短期投资者，或优先考虑盈利而不是增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1059052c9408212d41ace9bed94cdd4a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"698\"><span>Revenue metrics. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>收入指标。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd552d195006ab4d2b5bb01567a6fdf\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"590\"><span>SaaS EV / 2021 Rev.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SaaS EV/2021修订版。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77dea7178c4b94d74a75bc24aab22561\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"701\"><span>TWLO EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>TWLO EV / Fwd Rev. 数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider TWLO’s EV / FY+1 multiple of 20.6x against the SaaS median of 26.3x, it may be reasonably argued that TWLO doesn’t look expensive. It’s also important to note that TWLO is also expected to grow rapidly where we expect to see its multiple fall significantly over time (assuming its EV stays constant, which of course will unlikely to be the case if TWLO continues to deliver its high growth strategies). We are pretty sure that there are many more companies within the SaaS space that are valued at a much higher premium and yet with a slower expected revenue growth profile.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到 TWLO 的 EV / FY+1 倍数为 20.6 倍，而 SaaS 的中位数为 26.3 倍时，可以合理地认为 TWLO 看起来并不昂贵。值得注意的是，TWLO 预计也将快速增长，但随着时间的推移，我们预计其倍数将大幅下降（假设其电动汽车保持稳定，如果 TWLO 继续实施其高增长战略，当然不太可能出现这种情况）。我们非常确定，SaaS领域中有更多的公司估值更高，但预期收入增长较慢。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f626c7ad165f68d36e614c8163606c2f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We think that TWLO has a generally strong long term uptrend bias that was only interrupted once by the COVID-19 bear market over the last 3 years. The price recently found support along the 50W moving average at around $300 and the price has since gradually continued to recover from its recent slump.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为 TWLO 具有普遍强烈的长期上升趋势偏差，过去 3 年仅被 COVID-19 熊市中断过一次。价格最近在 50 瓦移动平均线 300 美元左右找到支撑，此后价格逐渐继续从最近的暴跌中复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Although we would prefer to add more positions near the $300 support level, we don’t think the current price level is expensive either, and think that investors may consider initiating or adding on to their positions at the current price level. They should however avoid adding near the $405 level as we believe that there should be near term resistance at that level. In addition, for investors who would prefer somewhat of a slight bargain, you may wait till the next retracement to test the 50W support again, of which a $320 level to add is also possible.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们更倾向于在 300 美元支撑位附近加仓，但我们也不认为当前价格水平昂贵，并认为投资者可以考虑在当前价格水平开始或加仓。然而，他们应该避免在 405 美元水平附近上涨，因为我们认为该水平应该存在近期阻力。此外，对于喜欢小幅便宜货的投资者来说，您可以等到下一次回撤再次测试 50W 支撑位，其中 320 美元的水平也是可能的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Twilio is a very high growth stock that has made revenue growth its most important priority right now as it sees tremendous growth opportunities ahead. Investors are asked to give TWLO time to grow into its expected long term profitability as the company sets itself up to be the leading player in the cloud communications and customer engagement space for companies across multiple industries.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio 是一只非常高增长的股票，它将收入增长作为目前最重要的优先事项，因为它看到了未来巨大的增长机会。随着 TWLO 将自己定位为多个行业公司云通信和客户参与领域的领先参与者，投资者被要求给 TWLO 时间来实现其预期的长期盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435794-twilio-investors-need-give-time-for-scale-up-and-profitable\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TWLO":"Twilio Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435794-twilio-investors-need-give-time-for-scale-up-and-profitable","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107200738","content_text":"Summary\n\nTwilio has been misunderstood as a stock that benefited only from the COVID-19 tailwind and it would fizzle out when reopening takes centre stage.\nMeanwhile, the company has continued to build on its strength through numerous key acquisitions, among which the Segment deal stood out as the most important.\nAs a result of third-party cookies deprecation, companies would likely need Twilio even more moving forward.\nAt its current valuations and its high DBNER of 133%, investors should take advantage of the recent price weakness to gain access to Twilio now.\n\nDrew Angerer/Getty Images\nNewsInvestment Thesis\nMany investors have misunderstood Twilio’s (TWLO) business model due to its unprofitability even as it delivered industry leading revenue growth metrics. While it may have yet to be EBIT profitable, the company is setting itself up to be the CPaaS leader with a top notch customer engagement platform, following its acquisition of the No.1 Customer Data Platform [CDP] in the world: Segment. Investors should understand by now that the secular tailwinds driving digitisation are not going to reverse, and therefore TWLO is in a prime position to benefit as the platform for the world on their customer engagement needs. Add on the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, companies would likely find TWLO even more important in their customer engagement efforts moving forward. At its current valuation, investors should find that TWLO may actually be valued at a discount to many of the stocks listed in the SaaS space.\nTwilio is Not your Typical SaaS Stock\nDBNER. Data source: Company filings\nTwilio’s value proposition as a CPaaS is unlike the typical SaaS company that makes the most of its revenue through recurring subscriptions, and increase or maintain their DBNER or DBNRR by cross-selling into other products or up-selling their customers by taking on more seats. TWLO’s revenue is mainly based on usage. Therefore the company makes more revenue when customers use its platform more, and make less when customers use it less. Therefore, because it’s based on usage we could easily determine the strength of its customers' usage simply by observing its DBNER trend.TWLO’s DBNER “increases when such Active Customer Accounts increase their usage of a product, extend their usage of a product to new applications or adopt a new product. Twilio’s Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate decreases when such Active Customer Accounts cease or reduce their usage of a product or when the Company lowers usage prices on a product.”\nTherefore, we could clearly observe from TWLO’s strong DBNER trend that its customers have been consistently increasing their net usage of its platform over the years, which actually already begun before COVID-19 hit. TWLO’s DBNER has been largely consistent as well and the company was also confident of achieving a normalized DBNER in the range of 130s moving forward.\nMoreover, the company has also highlighted that it continued to see increased use cases in its platform in many industries, and in particular in telehealth, which is another market that has been wrongly perceived to be only a COVID-19 phenomenon that has no sustainability. We have previously covered in a recent article on Teladoc (TDOC) on why telehealth’s rapid growth has begun well before the pandemic hit and is still very early in its growth phase as the market is expected to grow by more than 20% CAGR over the next 10 years. Therefore the secular tailwinds that are driving digitisation across many different industries would also drive increased business to TWLO as the market’s leading cloud communications and customer engagement platform.\nSaaS DBNER/DBNRR. Source: Atom Finance\nThis is especially so when we look across the SaaS space. Investors would be hard-pressed to find many companies that boast a NRR that has been consistently above 130% like TWLO (median: 120%). Another company that also uses usage-based pricing: Snowflake (SNOW) had a NRR of 168% in the latest quarter. Investors may think that these companies that adopt usage-based pricing may suffer if their customers drop off their usage rates drastically. However, TWLO and SNOW have both proven that their platforms are so sticky and offer so much value that once you are on it, you would keep using it more and more over time, and also expand usage into new products. Therefore, this usage-based pricing model has an inherently powerful booster to the company’s topline as use-cases kept increasing, something that a typical subscription-based ARR model may not be able to replicate without a usage-based model.\nMarket Truly Underestimated Segment's Acquisition\nIn our opinion, we think the market really underplayed Segment’s acquisition for TWLO. First, Segment is the No.1 CDP worldwide ranked by IDC, so we think TWLO has done an amazing deal there. In fact, the company emphasized how important they thought the acquisition meant to them (emphasis by us):\n\n We think the \n industrial logic of Segment plus Twilio is just a -- it's not just a home run.It's a grand slam. I think for us, having data capabilities married with communications capabilities is absolutely essential to deliver that rich customer experience.\n\nNotwithstanding the significant dilution funded from the mostly equity deal, I think investors should understand the strategic importance of having the best-of-breed CDP in its portfolio, which is crucially important to TWLO’s underlying CPaaS offering as it now confers its customers the access to real-time analytics with a unified view across disparate systems.\nLevel of impact of CDP on success metrics. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; Treasure Data\nWe could observe from the above survey conducted with marketers across different industries on the profound impact of having a CDP in their marketing KPIs. The large majority of the respondents noted an improvement across all the metrics listed in this survey with a remarkably high percentage of the respondents (33% to 45%) indicating “significant improvement” in the respective categories.\nBenefits of CDP according to marketing technology decision makers. Data source: Advertiser Perceptions; UniFida\nIn addition, 49% of the respondents also indicated that the CDP allowed them to unify data across multiple sources, which they regarded as the most important benefit. Twilio also highlighted the importance of this as it added that “consumers are no longer tied to just one form of communication, and they expect companies to pull together disparate interactions to deliver increasingly personalized content based on what they’re doing -- anytime, anywhere, and over their preferred channels.”\nMeasures undertaken by marketers from the U.S. to counter the impact of the deprecation of third-party cookies. Data source: Epsilon; Adweek; Phronesis Partners\nMoreover, with the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, marketers have been looking for ways to cushion the impact of this loss, and the majority of them (67.3%) have been building a CDP. CDPs primarily collects and use first-party data, which is really the most important sources of customer data as it offers the most accurate and actionable insights, and also the one that is least vulnerable to privacy regulations, a point that was also acknowledged by TWLO when asked whether TWLO saw any tailwind on privacy regulations due to its first-party data access, of which the company replied:\n\n 100%. I think you hit the nail on that actually and effectively answered your own question. I think they're very much on the right side of this. I mean they are very, very strong data stewards. They're kind of a privacy-first company. I think even in the EU, some of the trends in geodynamics also play in their favor. And so I do think data and data regulations is a potential tailwind for them, yes.\n\nShare of organizations collaborating with others to share first-party data in the U.S. Data source: Winterberry Group; LiveRamp\nIn order to further underscore the importance of first-party data, we could see that 64.3% of companies had collaborative arrangements to share first-party data while 16.7% had plans to do so. In a post-cookie world, I believe organizations would even need to be more proactive in its data gathering and analytics efforts, and having a CDP like Segment to help in this would be absolutely critical.\nYes, We Know That The Company Is Still Unprofitable\nEBIT margin, SG&A margin, R&D margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNevertheless, investors should be reminded that TWLO has yet to turn an operating profit, even though the company has guided to a long term operating margin of 28% over time. Investors should understand that TWLO would also not be expected to turn an operating profit anytime soon as the company is still in a heavy investment mode (as seen in its high SG&A and R&D margins) as it sees a lot of opportunities to invest and also possibly acquire, where it had made a number of high profile acquisitions such as Segment, ValueFirst, Syniverse, Zipwhip among others. The company strongly emphasized this point:\n\n But that doesn't mean that we won't be profitable, can't be profitable. I mean, we're growing at very elevated levels, certainly better than our corporate average, if you will. It's just that the rest of our business is growing really fast, right? So for it to really show up in our financials, based on our current trajectory, something else would have to slow down, which is not what we want. It's not what you want. It's not what anybody wants really, right? So I think in due course, all these things will happen.\n\nTherefore, TWLO investors are asked to demonstrate lots of patience, give time for TWLO to grow into its profitability and allow them to continue scaling up its revenue growth first. Consensus estimates see the company continuing to grow rapidly at about 44.5% YoY for FY 21 and also above 30% YoY subsequently. TWLO has also committed to grow its revenue above 30% for the next four years, so investors need to give TWLO time to deliver the goods, and this stock is therefore not for short term investors who are looking for a 2 to 3 year horizon, or a company that is prioritizing profitability over growth.\nRevenue metrics. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nValuations\nSaaS EV / 2021 Rev.\nTWLO EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider TWLO’s EV / FY+1 multiple of 20.6x against the SaaS median of 26.3x, it may be reasonably argued that TWLO doesn’t look expensive. It’s also important to note that TWLO is also expected to grow rapidly where we expect to see its multiple fall significantly over time (assuming its EV stays constant, which of course will unlikely to be the case if TWLO continues to deliver its high growth strategies). We are pretty sure that there are many more companies within the SaaS space that are valued at a much higher premium and yet with a slower expected revenue growth profile.\nPrice Action and Technical Analysis\n\nWe think that TWLO has a generally strong long term uptrend bias that was only interrupted once by the COVID-19 bear market over the last 3 years. The price recently found support along the 50W moving average at around $300 and the price has since gradually continued to recover from its recent slump.\nAlthough we would prefer to add more positions near the $300 support level, we don’t think the current price level is expensive either, and think that investors may consider initiating or adding on to their positions at the current price level. They should however avoid adding near the $405 level as we believe that there should be near term resistance at that level. In addition, for investors who would prefer somewhat of a slight bargain, you may wait till the next retracement to test the 50W support again, of which a $320 level to add is also possible.\nWrapping It All Up\nTwilio is a very high growth stock that has made revenue growth its most important priority right now as it sees tremendous growth opportunities ahead. Investors are asked to give TWLO time to grow into its expected long term profitability as the company sets itself up to be the leading player in the cloud communications and customer engagement space for companies across multiple industries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TWLO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
