JChew的个人主页 - 老虎社区

JChew

JChew

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2021-11-02

$Alibaba(BABA)$going to bull again..

2021-11-02

$Bakkt Holdings, Inc.(BKKT)$will it up??

2021-11-02

$Apple(AAPL)$up again..

2021-11-02

$Bakkt Holdings, Inc.(BKKT)$hi..

2021-10-30

$Apple(AAPL)$small win.

2021-10-28

$Apple(AAPL)$up up pls..

2021-10-27

$Bakkt Holdings, Inc.(BKKT)$ouchhh

2021-10-26

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$$1024!

2021-10-26

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$66%

2021-10-25

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$will it hit $1k???

2021-10-25

$Micron Technology(MU)$will it up?

2021-10-24

$Apple(AAPL)$hello..

2021-10-22

$Alibaba(BABA)$up up up...

2021-10-21

$Micron Technology(MU)$good time to go in?

2021-10-21

$SOS Limited(SOS)$hopefully will pump up again again again.

2021-10-20

$Alibaba(BABA)$hehehe.. up again

2021-10-19

$Apple(AAPL)$up up up!!!

2021-09-16

$Apple(AAPL)$wow wow..

2021-08-27

$Apple(AAPL)$sharing..

2021-08-27

Ouchhhh...

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again..","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59ca22621354cd0e49595e55348b4c3b","width":"1768","height":"3143"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172171436","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125905562,"gmtCreate":1624639196156,"gmtModify":1633950155260,"author":{"id":"3574252713857965","authorId":"3574252713857965","name":"JChew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9826782db82e8c780a3e98b40bf23815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574252713857965","idStr":"3574252713857965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment n like pls.. thanks.&nbsp;","listText":"Comment n like pls.. thanks.&nbsp;","text":"Comment n like pls.. thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125905562","repostId":"1134836867","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134836867","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624634837,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134836867?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Kyle Bass Slams Fed, Sees Inflation Everywhere He Looks<blockquote>凯尔·巴斯猛烈抨击美联储，随处可见通胀</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134836867","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With US stocks back at all-time highs as the market seemingly shrugged off the FOMC's reaction to th","content":"<p>With US stocks back at all-time highs as the market seemingly shrugged off the FOMC's reaction to the latest inflation numbers,Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass returned to CNBCfor an interview with the \"Closing Bell\" crew on Thursday, where he offered a dramatically different vision of the present economic scenario vis-a-vis inflation.</p><p><blockquote>随着市场似乎对FOMC对最新通胀数据的反应不屑一顾，美国股市重回历史高位，海曼资本(Hayman Capital)的凯尔·巴斯(Kyle Bass)周四回到CNBC接受“收盘钟声”工作人员的采访，他在采访中提出了截然不同的观点当前经济形势与通货膨胀的关系。</blockquote></p><p> Inan interview where heexpounded upon his claim that the US is already grappling with real inflation rates above 10%, the billionaire investor proclaimed that \"in every single aspect of life, I see inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>在接受采访时，这位亿万富翁投资者阐述了他关于美国已经在努力应对超过10%的实际通胀率的说法，他宣称“在生活的各个方面，我都看到了通货膨胀。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1d2089581ea201564daaba8b5aac961\" tg-width=\"521\" tg-height=\"310\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why? Because during the past year and a half, the Fed has introduced more broad money into the American economy in the shortest time than we have seen at any point in American history.</p><p><blockquote>为什么？因为在过去一年半的时间里，美联储在最短的时间内向美国经济引入了比美国历史上任何时候都多的广义货币。</blockquote></p><p>   \"I think look we're going to see a short-term turn-down in inflation because the initial inflationary burst was enormous...this transitory comment may play out to be true for a short period of time but I hink Sarah when you look at the the money supply the broad money in the US system from 1980 to 2010 it it vacillated between 50% and 60% of GDP and post the global financial crisis it moved up from roughly 60% to 68% 69% of GDP now that we're approaching 90 so in the one year period one and a half year period since COVID started we have introduced 34% more broad money in our system in the shortest time period in the history United States so we're going to see prices stay high and move higher over time if the fed continues to expand its balance sheet,\" Bass said.  Even as the financial press prattles on about the significance of the Fed finally starting to consider tapering its asset purchases, Bass believes that the central bank won't be able to shrink its balance sheet so easily.</p><p><blockquote>“我认为我们将看到通胀短期下降，因为最初的通胀爆发是巨大的。..这种短暂的评论可能在短时间内是正确的，但我认为莎拉，当你看看1980年至2010年美国体系中的货币供应量时，它在GDP的50%至60%之间波动，在全球金融危机后，它占GDP的比例从大约60%上升到68%69%，现在我们已经接近90%，所以在新冠疫情爆发以来的一年半时间里，我们在美国历史上最短的时间内，我们在美国历史上最短的时间内引入了34%的广义货币，所以如果美联储继续扩大资产负债表，我们将看到价格保持高位，并随着时间的推移而走高。尽管金融媒体喋喋不休地谈论美联储最终开始考虑缩减资产购买规模的重要性，巴斯认为央行不会那么容易缩减资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p>   \"We're going to see prices stay high and move higher over time if the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet which I think it will,\" Bass said.  So, what can investors do to fight this \"inflation monster\", as Bass colorfully described it. Well, he suggested they focus on hard assets like commodities and real estate,which BlackRock is already buying up in droves.</p><p><blockquote>巴斯表示：“如果美联储继续扩大资产负债表，我们将看到价格保持高位，并随着时间的推移走高，我认为会这样做。”那么，投资者可以做些什么来对抗这个巴斯生动描述的“通胀怪物”呢？嗯，他建议他们关注大宗商品和房地产等硬资产，贝莱德已经在大量购买这些资产。</blockquote></p><p> Equities should \"do fine\", Bass said, citing data purporting to show that equity prices keep up with between 95% and 88% of inflation over the long term (though that certainly doesn't seem to fit the last decade).</p><p><blockquote>巴斯表示，股市应该“表现良好”，他引用的数据似乎表明，从长远来看，股价能够跟上95%至88%的通胀率（尽管这似乎肯定不符合过去十年的情况）。</blockquote></p><p> As for his assessment of inflation and its dramatic difference with the Fed's view, Bass quipped: \"Your bank account is the final determinant whether there is inflation or not,\" he concluded, highlighting the higher prices consumers have seen for things like food and cars.\"</p><p><blockquote>至于他对通胀的评估及其与美联储观点的巨大差异，巴斯打趣道：“你的银行账户是是否存在通胀的最终决定因素，”他总结道，并强调了消费者看到的食品和汽车等商品的价格上涨。”</blockquote></p><p>   \"If you're in the market place you want to own commodities if you’re in the real world you want to own productive real estate you even want to buy rural land in front of major demographic moves in the US...I’d rather own hard assets than equities today because I think we’re only seeing just the beginning of population moves in the US.\" </p><p><blockquote>“如果你在市场上，你想拥有大宗商品，如果你在现实世界中，你想拥有生产性房地产，你甚至想在美国人口发生重大变化之前购买农村土地……我宁愿今天拥有硬资产而不是股票，因为我认为我们只看到美国人口流动的开始。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Kyle Bass Slams Fed, Sees Inflation Everywhere He Looks<blockquote>凯尔·巴斯猛烈抨击美联储，随处可见通胀</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKyle Bass Slams Fed, Sees Inflation Everywhere He Looks<blockquote>凯尔·巴斯猛烈抨击美联储，随处可见通胀</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-25 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With US stocks back at all-time highs as the market seemingly shrugged off the FOMC's reaction to the latest inflation numbers,Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass returned to CNBCfor an interview with the \"Closing Bell\" crew on Thursday, where he offered a dramatically different vision of the present economic scenario vis-a-vis inflation.</p><p><blockquote>随着市场似乎对FOMC对最新通胀数据的反应不屑一顾，美国股市重回历史高位，海曼资本(Hayman Capital)的凯尔·巴斯(Kyle Bass)周四回到CNBC接受“收盘钟声”工作人员的采访，他在采访中提出了截然不同的观点当前经济形势与通货膨胀的关系。</blockquote></p><p> Inan interview where heexpounded upon his claim that the US is already grappling with real inflation rates above 10%, the billionaire investor proclaimed that \"in every single aspect of life, I see inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>在接受采访时，这位亿万富翁投资者阐述了他关于美国已经在努力应对超过10%的实际通胀率的说法，他宣称“在生活的各个方面，我都看到了通货膨胀。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1d2089581ea201564daaba8b5aac961\" tg-width=\"521\" tg-height=\"310\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why? Because during the past year and a half, the Fed has introduced more broad money into the American economy in the shortest time than we have seen at any point in American history.</p><p><blockquote>为什么？因为在过去一年半的时间里，美联储在最短的时间内向美国经济引入了比美国历史上任何时候都多的广义货币。</blockquote></p><p>   \"I think look we're going to see a short-term turn-down in inflation because the initial inflationary burst was enormous...this transitory comment may play out to be true for a short period of time but I hink Sarah when you look at the the money supply the broad money in the US system from 1980 to 2010 it it vacillated between 50% and 60% of GDP and post the global financial crisis it moved up from roughly 60% to 68% 69% of GDP now that we're approaching 90 so in the one year period one and a half year period since COVID started we have introduced 34% more broad money in our system in the shortest time period in the history United States so we're going to see prices stay high and move higher over time if the fed continues to expand its balance sheet,\" Bass said.  Even as the financial press prattles on about the significance of the Fed finally starting to consider tapering its asset purchases, Bass believes that the central bank won't be able to shrink its balance sheet so easily.</p><p><blockquote>“我认为我们将看到通胀短期下降，因为最初的通胀爆发是巨大的。..这种短暂的评论可能在短时间内是正确的，但我认为莎拉，当你看看1980年至2010年美国体系中的货币供应量时，它在GDP的50%至60%之间波动，在全球金融危机后，它占GDP的比例从大约60%上升到68%69%，现在我们已经接近90%，所以在新冠疫情爆发以来的一年半时间里，我们在美国历史上最短的时间内，我们在美国历史上最短的时间内引入了34%的广义货币，所以如果美联储继续扩大资产负债表，我们将看到价格保持高位，并随着时间的推移而走高。尽管金融媒体喋喋不休地谈论美联储最终开始考虑缩减资产购买规模的重要性，巴斯认为央行不会那么容易缩减资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p>   \"We're going to see prices stay high and move higher over time if the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet which I think it will,\" Bass said.  So, what can investors do to fight this \"inflation monster\", as Bass colorfully described it. Well, he suggested they focus on hard assets like commodities and real estate,which BlackRock is already buying up in droves.</p><p><blockquote>巴斯表示：“如果美联储继续扩大资产负债表，我们将看到价格保持高位，并随着时间的推移走高，我认为会这样做。”那么，投资者可以做些什么来对抗这个巴斯生动描述的“通胀怪物”呢？嗯，他建议他们关注大宗商品和房地产等硬资产，贝莱德已经在大量购买这些资产。</blockquote></p><p> Equities should \"do fine\", Bass said, citing data purporting to show that equity prices keep up with between 95% and 88% of inflation over the long term (though that certainly doesn't seem to fit the last decade).</p><p><blockquote>巴斯表示，股市应该“表现良好”，他引用的数据似乎表明，从长远来看，股价能够跟上95%至88%的通胀率（尽管这似乎肯定不符合过去十年的情况）。</blockquote></p><p> As for his assessment of inflation and its dramatic difference with the Fed's view, Bass quipped: \"Your bank account is the final determinant whether there is inflation or not,\" he concluded, highlighting the higher prices consumers have seen for things like food and cars.\"</p><p><blockquote>至于他对通胀的评估及其与美联储观点的巨大差异，巴斯打趣道：“你的银行账户是是否存在通胀的最终决定因素，”他总结道，并强调了消费者看到的食品和汽车等商品的价格上涨。”</blockquote></p><p>   \"If you're in the market place you want to own commodities if you’re in the real world you want to own productive real estate you even want to buy rural land in front of major demographic moves in the US...I’d rather own hard assets than equities today because I think we’re only seeing just the beginning of population moves in the US.\" </p><p><blockquote>“如果你在市场上，你想拥有大宗商品，如果你在现实世界中，你想拥有生产性房地产，你甚至想在美国人口发生重大变化之前购买农村土地……我宁愿今天拥有硬资产而不是股票，因为我认为我们只看到美国人口流动的开始。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kyle-bass-warns-every-aspect-my-life-i-see-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kyle-bass-warns-every-aspect-my-life-i-see-inflation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134836867","content_text":"With US stocks back at all-time highs as the market seemingly shrugged off the FOMC's reaction to the latest inflation numbers,Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass returned to CNBCfor an interview with the \"Closing Bell\" crew on Thursday, where he offered a dramatically different vision of the present economic scenario vis-a-vis inflation.\nInan interview where heexpounded upon his claim that the US is already grappling with real inflation rates above 10%, the billionaire investor proclaimed that \"in every single aspect of life, I see inflation.\"\n\nWhy? Because during the past year and a half, the Fed has introduced more broad money into the American economy in the shortest time than we have seen at any point in American history.\n\n \"I think look we're going to see a short-term turn-down in inflation because the initial inflationary burst was enormous...this transitory comment may play out to be true for a short period of time but I hink Sarah when you look at the the money supply the broad money in the US system from 1980 to 2010 it it vacillated between 50% and 60% of GDP and post the global financial crisis it moved up from roughly 60% to 68% 69% of GDP now that we're approaching 90 so in the one year period one and a half year period since COVID started we have introduced 34% more broad money in our system in the shortest time period in the history United States so we're going to see prices stay high and move higher over time if the fed continues to expand its balance sheet,\" Bass said.\n\nEven as the financial press prattles on about the significance of the Fed finally starting to consider tapering its asset purchases, Bass believes that the central bank won't be able to shrink its balance sheet so easily.\n\n \"We're going to see prices stay high and move higher over time if the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet which I think it will,\" Bass said.\n\nSo, what can investors do to fight this \"inflation monster\", as Bass colorfully described it. Well, he suggested they focus on hard assets like commodities and real estate,which BlackRock is already buying up in droves.\nEquities should \"do fine\", Bass said, citing data purporting to show that equity prices keep up with between 95% and 88% of inflation over the long term (though that certainly doesn't seem to fit the last decade).\nAs for his assessment of inflation and its dramatic difference with the Fed's view, Bass quipped: \"Your bank account is the final determinant whether there is inflation or not,\" he concluded, highlighting the higher prices consumers have seen for things like food and cars.\"\n\n \"If you're in the market place you want to own commodities if you’re in the real world you want to own productive real estate you even want to buy rural land in front of major demographic moves in the US...I’d rather own hard assets than equities today because I think we’re only seeing just the beginning of population moves in the US.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168973246,"gmtCreate":1623948253985,"gmtModify":1634025359417,"author":{"id":"3574252713857965","authorId":"3574252713857965","name":"JChew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9826782db82e8c780a3e98b40bf23815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574252713857965","idStr":"3574252713857965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>small win..&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>small win..&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$small win..","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e594a624b44bc13a86aaba039cf48c5","width":"1768","height":"3143"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168973246","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163307067,"gmtCreate":1623859274859,"gmtModify":1634026914833,"author":{"id":"3574252713857965","authorId":"3574252713857965","name":"JChew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9826782db82e8c780a3e98b40bf23815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574252713857965","idStr":"3574252713857965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment&nbsp;","listText":"Comment&nbsp;","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163307067","repostId":"2143797877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160364760,"gmtCreate":1623773008250,"gmtModify":1634028470750,"author":{"id":"3574252713857965","authorId":"3574252713857965","name":"JChew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9826782db82e8c780a3e98b40bf23815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574252713857965","idStr":"3574252713857965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm hmm..&nbsp;","listText":"Hmm hmm..&nbsp;","text":"Hmm hmm..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160364760","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":843425762,"gmtCreate":1635852664027,"gmtModify":1635852664119,"author":{"id":"3574252713857965","authorId":"3574252713857965","name":"JChew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9826782db82e8c780a3e98b40bf23815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574252713857965","idStr":"3574252713857965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKKT\">$Bakkt Holdings, Inc.(BKKT)$</a>will it up??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKKT\">$Bakkt Holdings, Inc.(BKKT)$</a>will it up??","text":"$Bakkt Holdings, Inc.(BKKT)$will it up??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2884b226cb749f79e4d0c21f13b5410f","width":"1768","height":"3610"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843425762","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857251370,"gmtCreate":1635534454000,"gmtModify":1635534454055,"author":{"id":"3574252713857965","authorId":"3574252713857965","name":"JChew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9826782db82e8c780a3e98b40bf23815","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574252713857965","idStr":"3574252713857965"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>small win.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>small win.&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$small win.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/824ba67ee996de1547127ec94932676f","width":"1768","height":"3143"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857251370","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}