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2021-08-05

Nice

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2021-06-26

Nicee

Netflix Rises as Credit Suisse Sees Subscriber Growth Normalizing<blockquote>随着瑞士信贷看到用户增长正常化，Netflix 上涨</blockquote>

2021-04-12

Niceeeee

Why 'Options Action' Traders See Opportunity For VIX Trade<blockquote>为什么“期权行动”交易者看到 VIX 交易的机会</blockquote>

2021-04-11

Nice!!

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2021-04-11

Oyea

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2021-04-08

Nice

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2021-04-06

Nice

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2021-04-06

Nice

Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>

2021-04-05

Good

Here’s the $4.5 trillion ‘firepower’ that will drive stocks higher in April, says top strategist<blockquote>顶级策略师表示，4.5万亿美元的“火力”将推动4月份股市走高</blockquote>

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22:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix Rises as Credit Suisse Sees Subscriber Growth Normalizing<blockquote>随着瑞士信贷看到用户增长正常化，Netflix 上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119853713","media":"The Street","summary":"Netflix was upgraded to outperform with a $586 price target at Credit Suisse, which expects subscrib","content":"<p>  Netflix was upgraded to outperform with a $586 price target at Credit Suisse, which expects subscriber growth to normalize.  Shares of Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) were higher on Friday after the video-streaming service was upgraded to outperform from neutral by analysts at Credit Suisse.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷将 Netflix 的评级上调至跑赢大盘，目标价为 586 美元，预计用户增长将恢复正常。Netflix 股票（<b>NFLX</b>瑞士信贷分析师将视频流服务从中性上调至跑赢大盘后，周五股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> The investment firm's analysts say they expect subscriber growth to normalize in the fourth quarter. A survey by the firm among U.S. customers reinforced the platform's competitive position and high user satisfaction, CS said.</p><p><blockquote>该投资公司的分析师表示，他们预计第四季度用户增长将恢复正常。CS 表示，该公司对美国客户进行的一项调查加强了该平台的竞争地位和较高的用户满意度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Jon Markman on Real Money Picks Stocks for the Digital Future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Real Money 的 Jon Markman 为数字未来挑选股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts maintained their $586 price target while saying the stock is at a favorable entry point and attractive absolute valuation.</p><p><blockquote>分析师维持 586 美元的目标价，同时表示该股正处于有利的切入点和有吸引力的绝对估值。</blockquote></p><p> The firm sees a strong August to December pipeline on releases with \"numerous potential top-of-funnel titles,\" according to analyst Douglas Mitchelson. He also expects a stronger full-year slate in 2022 vs 2021.</p><p><blockquote>分析师道格拉斯·米切尔森 (Douglas Mitchelson) 表示，该公司预计 8 月至 12 月的发行渠道将强劲，其中“有许多潜在的漏斗顶部图书”。他还预计 2022 年全年业绩将比 2021 年更加强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Second-quarter results and third-quarter guidance are still uncertain and any disappointment could be a \"clearing event\" ahead of a rebound in the fourth quarter, according to Mitchelson.</p><p><blockquote>米切尔森表示，第二季度业绩和第三季度指引仍不确定，任何失望都可能成为第四季度反弹之前的“清算事件”。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Netflix at last check were 1.7% higher $527.14.</p><p><blockquote>最后一次检查时，Netflix 股价上涨 1.7%，至 527.14 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abf3270957252db3a40ff3b8f395e66d\" tg-width=\"712\" tg-height=\"530\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Earlier this month, Netflix and&nbsp;Amblin Partners, the film and television studio led by Steven Spielberg, raised the curtain ona partnership.&nbsp;In the deal, the Hollywood director's company will produce multiple films a year for the Los Gatos, Calif., streaming giant.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，网飞和史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格领导的电影和电视工作室Amblin Partners揭开了合作的帷幕。在这笔交易中，这位好莱坞导演的公司将为加州洛斯加托斯的流媒体巨头每年制作多部电影。</blockquote></p><p> Spielberg, the Oscar-winning director of \"Schindler's&nbsp;List,\" \"Jurassic Park\" and \"Saving Private Ryan,\" will continue to direct movies for Comcast's&nbsp;(<b>CMCSA</b>) -Get ReportUniversal Pictures as part of a separate deal.</p><p><blockquote>曾执导过《辛德勒的名单》、《侏罗纪公园》和《拯救大兵瑞恩》的奥斯卡获奖导演斯皮尔伯格将继续为康卡斯特（<b>CMCSA</b>) - 获取 ReportUniversal Pictures 作为单独交易的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this month, Netflix launched Netflix.shop, whichwill sell curatedproducts including apparel, toys and games.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，Netflix 推出了 Netflix.shop，将销售包括服装、玩具和游戏在内的精选产品。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix Rises as Credit Suisse Sees Subscriber Growth Normalizing<blockquote>随着瑞士信贷看到用户增长正常化，Netflix 上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix Rises as Credit Suisse Sees Subscriber Growth Normalizing<blockquote>随着瑞士信贷看到用户增长正常化，Netflix 上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-25 22:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Netflix was upgraded to outperform with a $586 price target at Credit Suisse, which expects subscriber growth to normalize.  Shares of Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) were higher on Friday after the video-streaming service was upgraded to outperform from neutral by analysts at Credit Suisse.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷将 Netflix 的评级上调至跑赢大盘，目标价为 586 美元，预计用户增长将恢复正常。Netflix 股票（<b>NFLX</b>瑞士信贷分析师将视频流服务从中性上调至跑赢大盘后，周五股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> The investment firm's analysts say they expect subscriber growth to normalize in the fourth quarter. A survey by the firm among U.S. customers reinforced the platform's competitive position and high user satisfaction, CS said.</p><p><blockquote>该投资公司的分析师表示，他们预计第四季度用户增长将恢复正常。CS 表示，该公司对美国客户进行的一项调查加强了该平台的竞争地位和较高的用户满意度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Jon Markman on Real Money Picks Stocks for the Digital Future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Real Money 的 Jon Markman 为数字未来挑选股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts maintained their $586 price target while saying the stock is at a favorable entry point and attractive absolute valuation.</p><p><blockquote>分析师维持 586 美元的目标价，同时表示该股正处于有利的切入点和有吸引力的绝对估值。</blockquote></p><p> The firm sees a strong August to December pipeline on releases with \"numerous potential top-of-funnel titles,\" according to analyst Douglas Mitchelson. He also expects a stronger full-year slate in 2022 vs 2021.</p><p><blockquote>分析师道格拉斯·米切尔森 (Douglas Mitchelson) 表示，该公司预计 8 月至 12 月的发行渠道将强劲，其中“有许多潜在的漏斗顶部图书”。他还预计 2022 年全年业绩将比 2021 年更加强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Second-quarter results and third-quarter guidance are still uncertain and any disappointment could be a \"clearing event\" ahead of a rebound in the fourth quarter, according to Mitchelson.</p><p><blockquote>米切尔森表示，第二季度业绩和第三季度指引仍不确定，任何失望都可能成为第四季度反弹之前的“清算事件”。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Netflix at last check were 1.7% higher $527.14.</p><p><blockquote>最后一次检查时，Netflix 股价上涨 1.7%，至 527.14 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abf3270957252db3a40ff3b8f395e66d\" tg-width=\"712\" tg-height=\"530\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Earlier this month, Netflix and&nbsp;Amblin Partners, the film and television studio led by Steven Spielberg, raised the curtain ona partnership.&nbsp;In the deal, the Hollywood director's company will produce multiple films a year for the Los Gatos, Calif., streaming giant.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，网飞和史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格领导的电影和电视工作室Amblin Partners揭开了合作的帷幕。在这笔交易中，这位好莱坞导演的公司将为加州洛斯加托斯的流媒体巨头每年制作多部电影。</blockquote></p><p> Spielberg, the Oscar-winning director of \"Schindler's&nbsp;List,\" \"Jurassic Park\" and \"Saving Private Ryan,\" will continue to direct movies for Comcast's&nbsp;(<b>CMCSA</b>) -Get ReportUniversal Pictures as part of a separate deal.</p><p><blockquote>曾执导过《辛德勒的名单》、《侏罗纪公园》和《拯救大兵瑞恩》的奥斯卡获奖导演斯皮尔伯格将继续为康卡斯特（<b>CMCSA</b>) - 获取 ReportUniversal Pictures 作为单独交易的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this month, Netflix launched Netflix.shop, whichwill sell curatedproducts including apparel, toys and games.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，Netflix 推出了 Netflix.shop，将销售包括服装、玩具和游戏在内的精选产品。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/netflix-climbs-on-credit-suisse-upgrade-to-outperform\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/netflix-climbs-on-credit-suisse-upgrade-to-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119853713","content_text":"Netflix was upgraded to outperform with a $586 price target at Credit Suisse, which expects subscriber growth to normalize.\n\nShares of Netflix (NFLX) were higher on Friday after the video-streaming service was upgraded to outperform from neutral by analysts at Credit Suisse.\nThe investment firm's analysts say they expect subscriber growth to normalize in the fourth quarter. A survey by the firm among U.S. customers reinforced the platform's competitive position and high user satisfaction, CS said.\nJon Markman on Real Money Picks Stocks for the Digital Future\nAnalysts maintained their $586 price target while saying the stock is at a favorable entry point and attractive absolute valuation.\nThe firm sees a strong August to December pipeline on releases with \"numerous potential top-of-funnel titles,\" according to analyst Douglas Mitchelson. He also expects a stronger full-year slate in 2022 vs 2021.\nSecond-quarter results and third-quarter guidance are still uncertain and any disappointment could be a \"clearing event\" ahead of a rebound in the fourth quarter, according to Mitchelson.\nShares of Netflix at last check were 1.7% higher $527.14.\n\nEarlier this month, Netflix and Amblin Partners, the film and television studio led by Steven Spielberg, raised the curtain ona partnership. In the deal, the Hollywood director's company will produce multiple films a year for the Los Gatos, Calif., streaming giant.\nSpielberg, the Oscar-winning director of \"Schindler's List,\" \"Jurassic Park\" and \"Saving Private Ryan,\" will continue to direct movies for Comcast's (CMCSA) -Get ReportUniversal Pictures as part of a separate deal.\nEarlier this month, Netflix launched Netflix.shop, whichwill sell curatedproducts including apparel, toys and games.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342268691,"gmtCreate":1618222767613,"gmtModify":1634294353295,"author":{"id":"3574310273786717","authorId":"3574310273786717","name":"Cerealslysj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2384f1e4c512572d62d0dfaabf7881c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574310273786717","authorIdStr":"3574310273786717"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Niceeeee","listText":"Niceeeee","text":"Niceeeee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342268691","repostId":"1166173769","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166173769","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1618222468,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166173769?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why 'Options Action' Traders See Opportunity For VIX Trade<blockquote>为什么“期权行动”交易者看到 VIX 交易的机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166173769","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"OnCNBC's \"Options Action,\"Mike Khouw spoke about a bullish options trade in VIX futures. He said the","content":"<p>OnCNBC's \"Options Action,\"Mike Khouw spoke about a bullish options trade in VIX futures. He said the VIX and S&amp;P 500 are \"anti-correlated\" as one goes down when the other goes up. So when you make a bullish bet on VIX, you are betting that the S&amp;P 500 is going to fall.</p><p><blockquote>OnCNBC 的“期权行动”中，Mike Khouw 谈到了 VIX 期货的看涨期权交易。他表示，VIX 和标普500是“反相关的”，因为一个下跌，另一个上涨。因此，当您看涨 VIX 时，您就是在押注标普500将会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, he noticed a purchase of 200,000 contracts of the July 25/40 call spread in July futures. A trader paid around $2.07 for the trade, which represents an outlay of around $40 million. The trade breaks even at 27.07 and it can make a maximal profit of $12.93. Khouw said it is important to know that when there is a spike in VIX, the longer-dated futures do not move as much as spot VIX.</p><p><blockquote>周四，他注意到7月期货中购买了20万份7月25日/40日看涨期权价差合约。一名交易员为这笔交易支付了约 2.07 美元，相当于约 4000 万美元的支出。该交易在 27.07 处收支平衡，最大利润为 12.93 美元。Khouw表示，重要的是要知道，当VIX出现飙升时，长期期货的波动幅度不会像现货VIX那样大。</blockquote></p><p> Carter Worth said that VIX gapped higher in March 2020 and it took a year for it to fill that gap. Worth expects to see a pop in the VIX.</p><p><blockquote>Carter Worth 表示，VIX 在 2020 年 3 月的缺口更高，花了一年时间才填补这一缺口。沃斯预计 VIX 指数将出现上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Tony Zhang likes the trade and he sees it as a smart and low-cost way to hedge a large institutional portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>Tony Zhang 喜欢这种交易，他认为这是对冲大型机构投资组合的一种明智且低成本的方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why 'Options Action' Traders See Opportunity For VIX Trade<blockquote>为什么“期权行动”交易者看到 VIX 交易的机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy 'Options Action' Traders See Opportunity For VIX Trade<blockquote>为什么“期权行动”交易者看到 VIX 交易的机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-12 18:14</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OnCNBC's \"Options Action,\"Mike Khouw spoke about a bullish options trade in VIX futures. He said the VIX and S&amp;P 500 are \"anti-correlated\" as one goes down when the other goes up. So when you make a bullish bet on VIX, you are betting that the S&amp;P 500 is going to fall.</p><p><blockquote>OnCNBC 的“期权行动”中，Mike Khouw 谈到了 VIX 期货的看涨期权交易。他表示，VIX 和标普500是“反相关的”，因为一个下跌，另一个上涨。因此，当您看涨 VIX 时，您就是在押注标普500将会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, he noticed a purchase of 200,000 contracts of the July 25/40 call spread in July futures. A trader paid around $2.07 for the trade, which represents an outlay of around $40 million. The trade breaks even at 27.07 and it can make a maximal profit of $12.93. Khouw said it is important to know that when there is a spike in VIX, the longer-dated futures do not move as much as spot VIX.</p><p><blockquote>周四，他注意到7月期货中购买了20万份7月25日/40日看涨期权价差合约。一名交易员为这笔交易支付了约 2.07 美元，相当于约 4000 万美元的支出。该交易在 27.07 处收支平衡，最大利润为 12.93 美元。Khouw表示，重要的是要知道，当VIX出现飙升时，长期期货的波动幅度不会像现货VIX那样大。</blockquote></p><p> Carter Worth said that VIX gapped higher in March 2020 and it took a year for it to fill that gap. Worth expects to see a pop in the VIX.</p><p><blockquote>Carter Worth 表示，VIX 在 2020 年 3 月的缺口更高，花了一年时间才填补这一缺口。沃斯预计 VIX 指数将出现上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Tony Zhang likes the trade and he sees it as a smart and low-cost way to hedge a large institutional portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>Tony Zhang 喜欢这种交易，他认为这是对冲大型机构投资组合的一种明智且低成本的方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VIX":"标普500波动率指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166173769","content_text":"OnCNBC's \"Options Action,\"Mike Khouw spoke about a bullish options trade in VIX futures. He said the VIX and S&P 500 are \"anti-correlated\" as one goes down when the other goes up. So when you make a bullish bet on VIX, you are betting that the S&P 500 is going to fall.\nOn Thursday, he noticed a purchase of 200,000 contracts of the July 25/40 call spread in July futures. A trader paid around $2.07 for the trade, which represents an outlay of around $40 million. The trade breaks even at 27.07 and it can make a maximal profit of $12.93. Khouw said it is important to know that when there is a spike in VIX, the longer-dated futures do not move as much as spot VIX.\nCarter Worth said that VIX gapped higher in March 2020 and it took a year for it to fill that gap. Worth expects to see a pop in the VIX.\nTony Zhang likes the trade and he sees it as a smart and low-cost way to hedge a large institutional portfolio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VIX":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342041882,"gmtCreate":1618137678846,"gmtModify":1634294734386,"author":{"id":"3574310273786717","authorId":"3574310273786717","name":"Cerealslysj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2384f1e4c512572d62d0dfaabf7881c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574310273786717","authorIdStr":"3574310273786717"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice!!&nbsp;","listText":"Nice!!&nbsp;","text":"Nice!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342041882","repostId":"2126315033","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346558043,"gmtCreate":1618090433582,"gmtModify":1634294977147,"author":{"id":"3574310273786717","authorId":"3574310273786717","name":"Cerealslysj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2384f1e4c512572d62d0dfaabf7881c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574310273786717","authorIdStr":"3574310273786717"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oyea","listText":"Oyea","text":"Oyea","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346558043","repostId":"1136941144","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1922,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348393936,"gmtCreate":1617886760025,"gmtModify":1634295966062,"author":{"id":"3574310273786717","authorId":"3574310273786717","name":"Cerealslysj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2384f1e4c512572d62d0dfaabf7881c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574310273786717","authorIdStr":"3574310273786717"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348393936","repostId":"2125577721","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343347490,"gmtCreate":1617682672510,"gmtModify":1634297124682,"author":{"id":"3574310273786717","authorId":"3574310273786717","name":"Cerealslysj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2384f1e4c512572d62d0dfaabf7881c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574310273786717","authorIdStr":"3574310273786717"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343347490","repostId":"2125798879","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343347665,"gmtCreate":1617682652657,"gmtModify":1634297125058,"author":{"id":"3574310273786717","authorId":"3574310273786717","name":"Cerealslysj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2384f1e4c512572d62d0dfaabf7881c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574310273786717","authorIdStr":"3574310273786717"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343347665","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能确定所谓家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机永远不会完全相同。20 世纪 80 年代末，全国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终纳税人获得了约 2650 亿美元的救助（按 2021 年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄罗斯的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运作方式如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦-格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）说，当 LTCM 失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何能与他感受到的恐怖相提并论的东西”。LTCM 被认为 “大到不能倒”，他策划了 14 家美国主要金融机构的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构过度使用杠杆，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行又一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人出手相救。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆炸，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于门外汉来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思： 咨询公司安永估计，全球约有 10,000 家家族理财室，但市场研究公司坎普登研究公司（Campden Research）的另一项估计显示，管理规模接近 6 万亿美元。鉴于 2019 年的数据，这 6 万亿美元现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的资金管理人</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这就是潜在的危险。家族理财室一般不受监管。1940 年的《投资顾问法》规定，拥有 15 家或以下客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元在起作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，投资了什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大力押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司（Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS），-1.19%，美国上市中国辅导公司跟谁学公司（GSX），-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司ViacomCBS Inc.VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。股价最近暴跌，引发了 Archegos 的大规模出售——约 300 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道 Archegos 与华尔街的一些大公司合作，包括瑞士信贷集团 AGCS（+1.59%）、瑞银集团 AGUBS（+1.01%）、高盛集团 GS（-1.25%）、摩根士丹利 MS（-0.28%）、德意志银行 AGDB，+0.74% 和野村控股公司 NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是，由于家族理财室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说出这里到底涉及多少钱，市场风险有多大？我的同事马克-德坎布雷（Mark DeCambre）上周报道称，Archegos 的真实不良交易风险实际上可能接近 1000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的来源。随着 Archegos 的赌注走向南方，上述银行--考虑到自己的损失--用保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行很快抛售了约 40 亿美元的持股，而据说高盛和摩根士丹利也已解除头寸，这或许限制了它们的下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎并非如此。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会已对 Archegos 及其创始人 Bill Hwang 展开初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>一位同行，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee，将评级-黄（John Hwang）列为他所知道的 “十大最佳投资头脑 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012 年，黄的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司（Tiger Asia Management）被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易，认罪并支付了 6000 多万美元的罚款。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄代表客户管理资金——实质上将他逐出了对冲基金行业。于是 Hwang 开了 Archegos，再说一遍，家族办公室一般都不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）的关注。她上周表示，需要对金融业的这些私人角落进行更严格的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新启动了一个特别工作组，以帮助各机构更好地 “共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯的话来说，家族理财室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在很大程度上被允许在比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂的全球金融体系的阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪拥有，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的崩溃可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但是，谁能说成千上万的其他家族理财室如何处理他们的数万亿美元，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能确定所谓家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机永远不会完全相同。20 世纪 80 年代末，全国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终纳税人获得了约 2650 亿美元的救助（按 2021 年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄罗斯的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运作方式如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦-格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）说，当 LTCM 失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何能与他感受到的恐怖相提并论的东西”。LTCM 被认为 “大到不能倒”，他策划了 14 家美国主要金融机构的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构过度使用杠杆，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行又一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人出手相救。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆炸，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于门外汉来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思： 咨询公司安永估计，全球约有 10,000 家家族理财室，但市场研究公司坎普登研究公司（Campden Research）的另一项估计显示，管理规模接近 6 万亿美元。鉴于 2019 年的数据，这 6 万亿美元现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的资金管理人</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这就是潜在的危险。家族理财室一般不受监管。1940 年的《投资顾问法》规定，拥有 15 家或以下客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元在起作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，投资了什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大力押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司（Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS），-1.19%，美国上市中国辅导公司跟谁学公司（GSX），-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司ViacomCBS Inc.VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。股价最近暴跌，引发了 Archegos 的大规模出售——约 300 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道 Archegos 与华尔街的一些大公司合作，包括瑞士信贷集团 AGCS（+1.59%）、瑞银集团 AGUBS（+1.01%）、高盛集团 GS（-1.25%）、摩根士丹利 MS（-0.28%）、德意志银行 AGDB，+0.74% 和野村控股公司 NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是，由于家族理财室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说出这里到底涉及多少钱，市场风险有多大？我的同事马克-德坎布雷（Mark DeCambre）上周报道称，Archegos 的真实不良交易风险实际上可能接近 1000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的来源。随着 Archegos 的赌注走向南方，上述银行--考虑到自己的损失--用保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行很快抛售了约 40 亿美元的持股，而据说高盛和摩根士丹利也已解除头寸，这或许限制了它们的下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎并非如此。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会已对 Archegos 及其创始人 Bill Hwang 展开初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>一位同行，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee，将评级-黄（John Hwang）列为他所知道的 “十大最佳投资头脑 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012 年，黄的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司（Tiger Asia Management）被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易，认罪并支付了 6000 多万美元的罚款。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄代表客户管理资金——实质上将他逐出了对冲基金行业。于是 Hwang 开了 Archegos，再说一遍，家族办公室一般都不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）的关注。她上周表示，需要对金融业的这些私人角落进行更严格的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新启动了一个特别工作组，以帮助各机构更好地 “共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯的话来说，家族理财室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在很大程度上被允许在比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂的全球金融体系的阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪拥有，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的崩溃可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但是，谁能说成千上万的其他家族理财室如何处理他们的数万亿美元，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349402148,"gmtCreate":1617630259484,"gmtModify":1634297450963,"author":{"id":"3574310273786717","authorId":"3574310273786717","name":"Cerealslysj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2384f1e4c512572d62d0dfaabf7881c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574310273786717","authorIdStr":"3574310273786717"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349402148","repostId":"1130993065","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130993065","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617627632,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1130993065?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-05 21:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s the $4.5 trillion ‘firepower’ that will drive stocks higher in April, says top strategist<blockquote>顶级策略师表示，4.5万亿美元的“火力”将推动4月份股市走高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130993065","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"A new month is off to a bullish start, or so it seems, as stock futures climb following Friday’s bet","content":"<p>A new month is off to a bullish start, or so it seems, as stock futures climb following Friday’s better-than-expected,916,000 gain&nbsp;in March jobs, which underpins investor hopes for a strong post-COVID-19 rebound.</p><p><blockquote>在周五 3 月份新增就业岗位 91.6 万个好于预期之后，股指期货攀升，这巩固了投资者对 COVID-19 后强劲反弹的希望。</blockquote></p><p>As for the data, there’s a lot to like, according to Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors.</p><p><blockquote>SGH Macro Advisors 首席美国经济学家蒂姆-杜伊（Tim Duy）认为，至于数据，有很多值得称道的地方。</blockquote></p><p>“Assuming the pandemic only comes under greater control this year, I suspect a substantial impediment limiting the pace of job growth this year will be the pace at which firms can hire employees. Firing is easier than hiring and employers are now scrambling to add workers,” Duy told clients in a note.</p><p><blockquote>“假设今年大流行病只能得到更好的控制，我怀疑限制今年就业增长速度的一个主要障碍将是企业招聘员工的速度。解雇比招聘容易，雇主们现在都在争先恐后地增加员工，”杜伊在一份说明中告诉客户。</blockquote></p><p>Hence, watch for those “we can’t hire worker” stories, to come, he says.</p><p><blockquote>因此，他说，要留意那些 “我们雇不到工人 ”的故事。</blockquote></p><p>Onto our&nbsp;<b>call of the day</b>&nbsp;from Fundstrat Global Advisors’s founder Thomas Lee, who says the “face ripper” rally he recently predicted shows no signs of easing up. And there’s a $4.5 trillion reason to believe gains will carry into April, he told clients.</p><p><blockquote>到我们的<b>今日看涨期权</b>Fundstrat Global Advisors 创始人托马斯-李（Thomas Lee）表示，他最近预测的 “撕脸 ”反弹没有放缓的迹象。他告诉客户，有 4.5 万亿美元的理由相信收益将持续到 4 月份。</blockquote></p><p>Aside from the positives out there already for this market — a strong economy and vaccine rollout — Lee points to a pile of institutional money on the sidelines, with cash balances at $3 trillion, the highest since June 2020. That’s against $2.764 trillion at the start of 2021, a “dramatic” gain of 9% or $241 billion, said Lee.</p><p><blockquote>除了这个市场已经存在的积极因素——强劲的经济和疫苗的推出——李指出，还有大量机构资金处于观望状态，现金余额达到 3 万亿美元，为 2020 年 6 月以来的最高水平。李说，与 2021 年初的 2.764 万亿美元相比，这一数字 “戏剧性 ”增长了 9%，即 2410 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>A cautious stance by institutions that went “parabolic” in the last half of March, adds to the $1.5 trillion in retail money market cash.</p><p><blockquote>3 月下半月 “抛物线 ”的机构采取了谨慎的立场，使零售货币市场现金达到 1.5 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>“Total cash on the sidelines is $4.5 trillion = tons and tons of firepower on the sidelines. This bodes well for April equity gains,” said Lee.</p><p><blockquote>“场外现金总额为 4.5 万亿美元 = 场外火力成吨。这对 4 月份的股价上涨来说是个好兆头，”李说。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b63c34415ffe19164a54a324b427d\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Lee expects small-caps, energy and cyclical stocks — geared toward an economic recovery — to continue leading into the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>李预计，面向经济复苏的小盘股、能源股和周期性股将继续领先第二季度。</blockquote></p><p>“Recall that cyclicals are only 33% of the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;overall weight and more than 60% of the Russell 2000 index.&nbsp; So if Cyclicals, aka Epicenter, work, small-cap stocks will outperform,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“回想一下，周期性股票仅占标普500总权重的 33%，占罗素 2000 指数的 60% 以上。因此，如果周期性股票（即震中）发挥作用，小盘股的表现将优于大盘，”他说。</blockquote></p><p><b>Watch this chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>观看此图表</b></blockquote></p><p>Adam Kobeissi, founder and editor in chief of&nbsp;The Kobeissi Letter, expects the bullish jobs report to send the S&amp;P 500 to 4,035 to 4,050 in the near term, but from there he’d like to see it pull back to 3,950 to 4,000, to set up for another higher low before a move toward 4,100.</p><p><blockquote>The Kobeissi Letter 的创始人兼主编 Adam Kobeissi 预计，看涨的就业报告将使标普500在短期内达到 4,035 至 4,050 人，但他希望看到就业报告回落至 3,950 至 4,000 人，为另一个更高的低点奠定基础，然后再向 4,100 人移动。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9abfb431da31b94898bf8d11e3744681\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"706\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>THE KOBEISSI LETTER</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>科贝西信</span></p></blockquote></p><p>“Therefore, we are remaining on the sidelines to start this week, as stepping in front of a market this strong is not a stance we want to take, and will maintain a medium term bullish outlook with the intention of getting back into our bullish positions in the wake of a drop in the market,” Kobeissi told subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“科贝西对订户说：”因此，本周我们将保持观望态度，因为在如此强劲的市场面前站稳脚跟并不是我们想采取的立场，我们将维持中期看涨前景，打算在市场下跌后重新回到看涨头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s the $4.5 trillion ‘firepower’ that will drive stocks higher in April, says top strategist<blockquote>顶级策略师表示，4.5万亿美元的“火力”将推动4月份股市走高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s the $4.5 trillion ‘firepower’ that will drive stocks higher in April, says top strategist<blockquote>顶级策略师表示，4.5万亿美元的“火力”将推动4月份股市走高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-05 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A new month is off to a bullish start, or so it seems, as stock futures climb following Friday’s better-than-expected,916,000 gain&nbsp;in March jobs, which underpins investor hopes for a strong post-COVID-19 rebound.</p><p><blockquote>在周五 3 月份新增就业岗位 91.6 万个好于预期之后，股指期货攀升，这巩固了投资者对 COVID-19 后强劲反弹的希望。</blockquote></p><p>As for the data, there’s a lot to like, according to Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors.</p><p><blockquote>SGH Macro Advisors 首席美国经济学家蒂姆-杜伊（Tim Duy）认为，至于数据，有很多值得称道的地方。</blockquote></p><p>“Assuming the pandemic only comes under greater control this year, I suspect a substantial impediment limiting the pace of job growth this year will be the pace at which firms can hire employees. Firing is easier than hiring and employers are now scrambling to add workers,” Duy told clients in a note.</p><p><blockquote>“假设今年大流行病只能得到更好的控制，我怀疑限制今年就业增长速度的一个主要障碍将是企业招聘员工的速度。解雇比招聘容易，雇主们现在都在争先恐后地增加员工，”杜伊在一份说明中告诉客户。</blockquote></p><p>Hence, watch for those “we can’t hire worker” stories, to come, he says.</p><p><blockquote>因此，他说，要留意那些 “我们雇不到工人 ”的故事。</blockquote></p><p>Onto our&nbsp;<b>call of the day</b>&nbsp;from Fundstrat Global Advisors’s founder Thomas Lee, who says the “face ripper” rally he recently predicted shows no signs of easing up. And there’s a $4.5 trillion reason to believe gains will carry into April, he told clients.</p><p><blockquote>到我们的<b>今日看涨期权</b>Fundstrat Global Advisors 创始人托马斯-李（Thomas Lee）表示，他最近预测的 “撕脸 ”反弹没有放缓的迹象。他告诉客户，有 4.5 万亿美元的理由相信收益将持续到 4 月份。</blockquote></p><p>Aside from the positives out there already for this market — a strong economy and vaccine rollout — Lee points to a pile of institutional money on the sidelines, with cash balances at $3 trillion, the highest since June 2020. That’s against $2.764 trillion at the start of 2021, a “dramatic” gain of 9% or $241 billion, said Lee.</p><p><blockquote>除了这个市场已经存在的积极因素——强劲的经济和疫苗的推出——李指出，还有大量机构资金处于观望状态，现金余额达到 3 万亿美元，为 2020 年 6 月以来的最高水平。李说，与 2021 年初的 2.764 万亿美元相比，这一数字 “戏剧性 ”增长了 9%，即 2410 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>A cautious stance by institutions that went “parabolic” in the last half of March, adds to the $1.5 trillion in retail money market cash.</p><p><blockquote>3 月下半月 “抛物线 ”的机构采取了谨慎的立场，使零售货币市场现金达到 1.5 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>“Total cash on the sidelines is $4.5 trillion = tons and tons of firepower on the sidelines. This bodes well for April equity gains,” said Lee.</p><p><blockquote>“场外现金总额为 4.5 万亿美元 = 场外火力成吨。这对 4 月份的股价上涨来说是个好兆头，”李说。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b63c34415ffe19164a54a324b427d\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Lee expects small-caps, energy and cyclical stocks — geared toward an economic recovery — to continue leading into the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>李预计，面向经济复苏的小盘股、能源股和周期性股将继续领先第二季度。</blockquote></p><p>“Recall that cyclicals are only 33% of the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;overall weight and more than 60% of the Russell 2000 index.&nbsp; So if Cyclicals, aka Epicenter, work, small-cap stocks will outperform,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“回想一下，周期性股票仅占标普500总权重的 33%，占罗素 2000 指数的 60% 以上。因此，如果周期性股票（即震中）发挥作用，小盘股的表现将优于大盘，”他说。</blockquote></p><p><b>Watch this chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>观看此图表</b></blockquote></p><p>Adam Kobeissi, founder and editor in chief of&nbsp;The Kobeissi Letter, expects the bullish jobs report to send the S&amp;P 500 to 4,035 to 4,050 in the near term, but from there he’d like to see it pull back to 3,950 to 4,000, to set up for another higher low before a move toward 4,100.</p><p><blockquote>The Kobeissi Letter 的创始人兼主编 Adam Kobeissi 预计，看涨的就业报告将使标普500在短期内达到 4,035 至 4,050 人，但他希望看到就业报告回落至 3,950 至 4,000 人，为另一个更高的低点奠定基础，然后再向 4,100 人移动。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9abfb431da31b94898bf8d11e3744681\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"706\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>THE KOBEISSI LETTER</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>科贝西信</span></p></blockquote></p><p>“Therefore, we are remaining on the sidelines to start this week, as stepping in front of a market this strong is not a stance we want to take, and will maintain a medium term bullish outlook with the intention of getting back into our bullish positions in the wake of a drop in the market,” Kobeissi told subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“科贝西对订户说：”因此，本周我们将保持观望态度，因为在如此强劲的市场面前站稳脚跟并不是我们想采取的立场，我们将维持中期看涨前景，打算在市场下跌后重新回到看涨头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-4-5-trillion-firepower-that-will-drive-stocks-higher-in-april-says-top-strategist-11617621774?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-4-5-trillion-firepower-that-will-drive-stocks-higher-in-april-says-top-strategist-11617621774?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130993065","content_text":"A new month is off to a bullish start, or so it seems, as stock futures climb following Friday’s better-than-expected,916,000 gain in March jobs, which underpins investor hopes for a strong post-COVID-19 rebound.As for the data, there’s a lot to like, according to Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors.“Assuming the pandemic only comes under greater control this year, I suspect a substantial impediment limiting the pace of job growth this year will be the pace at which firms can hire employees. Firing is easier than hiring and employers are now scrambling to add workers,” Duy told clients in a note.Hence, watch for those “we can’t hire worker” stories, to come, he says.Onto our call of the day from Fundstrat Global Advisors’s founder Thomas Lee, who says the “face ripper” rally he recently predicted shows no signs of easing up. And there’s a $4.5 trillion reason to believe gains will carry into April, he told clients.Aside from the positives out there already for this market — a strong economy and vaccine rollout — Lee points to a pile of institutional money on the sidelines, with cash balances at $3 trillion, the highest since June 2020. That’s against $2.764 trillion at the start of 2021, a “dramatic” gain of 9% or $241 billion, said Lee.A cautious stance by institutions that went “parabolic” in the last half of March, adds to the $1.5 trillion in retail money market cash.“Total cash on the sidelines is $4.5 trillion = tons and tons of firepower on the sidelines. This bodes well for April equity gains,” said Lee.Lee expects small-caps, energy and cyclical stocks — geared toward an economic recovery — to continue leading into the second quarter.“Recall that cyclicals are only 33% of the S&P 500 overall weight and more than 60% of the Russell 2000 index.  So if Cyclicals, aka Epicenter, work, small-cap stocks will outperform,” he said.Watch this chartAdam Kobeissi, founder and editor in chief of The Kobeissi Letter, expects the bullish jobs report to send the S&P 500 to 4,035 to 4,050 in the near term, but from there he’d like to see it pull back to 3,950 to 4,000, to set up for another higher low before a move toward 4,100.THE KOBEISSI LETTER“Therefore, we are remaining on the sidelines to start this week, as stepping in front of a market this strong is not a stance we want to take, and will maintain a medium term bullish outlook with the intention of getting back into our bullish positions in the wake of a drop in the market,” Kobeissi told subscribers.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":890696335,"gmtCreate":1628101138427,"gmtModify":1633753608567,"author":{"id":"3574310273786717","authorId":"3574310273786717","name":"Cerealslysj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2384f1e4c512572d62d0dfaabf7881c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574310273786717","idStr":"3574310273786717"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890696335","repostId":"1184393508","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343347665,"gmtCreate":1617682652657,"gmtModify":1634297125058,"author":{"id":"3574310273786717","authorId":"3574310273786717","name":"Cerealslysj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2384f1e4c512572d62d0dfaabf7881c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574310273786717","idStr":"3574310273786717"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343347665","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能确定所谓家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机永远不会完全相同。20 世纪 80 年代末，全国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终纳税人获得了约 2650 亿美元的救助（按 2021 年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄罗斯的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运作方式如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦-格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）说，当 LTCM 失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何能与他感受到的恐怖相提并论的东西”。LTCM 被认为 “大到不能倒”，他策划了 14 家美国主要金融机构的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构过度使用杠杆，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行又一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人出手相救。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆炸，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于门外汉来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思： 咨询公司安永估计，全球约有 10,000 家家族理财室，但市场研究公司坎普登研究公司（Campden Research）的另一项估计显示，管理规模接近 6 万亿美元。鉴于 2019 年的数据，这 6 万亿美元现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的资金管理人</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这就是潜在的危险。家族理财室一般不受监管。1940 年的《投资顾问法》规定，拥有 15 家或以下客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元在起作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，投资了什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大力押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司（Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS），-1.19%，美国上市中国辅导公司跟谁学公司（GSX），-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司ViacomCBS Inc.VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。股价最近暴跌，引发了 Archegos 的大规模出售——约 300 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道 Archegos 与华尔街的一些大公司合作，包括瑞士信贷集团 AGCS（+1.59%）、瑞银集团 AGUBS（+1.01%）、高盛集团 GS（-1.25%）、摩根士丹利 MS（-0.28%）、德意志银行 AGDB，+0.74% 和野村控股公司 NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是，由于家族理财室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说出这里到底涉及多少钱，市场风险有多大？我的同事马克-德坎布雷（Mark DeCambre）上周报道称，Archegos 的真实不良交易风险实际上可能接近 1000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的来源。随着 Archegos 的赌注走向南方，上述银行--考虑到自己的损失--用保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行很快抛售了约 40 亿美元的持股，而据说高盛和摩根士丹利也已解除头寸，这或许限制了它们的下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎并非如此。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会已对 Archegos 及其创始人 Bill Hwang 展开初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>一位同行，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee，将评级-黄（John Hwang）列为他所知道的 “十大最佳投资头脑 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012 年，黄的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司（Tiger Asia Management）被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易，认罪并支付了 6000 多万美元的罚款。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄代表客户管理资金——实质上将他逐出了对冲基金行业。于是 Hwang 开了 Archegos，再说一遍，家族办公室一般都不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）的关注。她上周表示，需要对金融业的这些私人角落进行更严格的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新启动了一个特别工作组，以帮助各机构更好地 “共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯的话来说，家族理财室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在很大程度上被允许在比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂的全球金融体系的阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪拥有，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的崩溃可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但是，谁能说成千上万的其他家族理财室如何处理他们的数万亿美元，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能确定所谓家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机永远不会完全相同。20 世纪 80 年代末，全国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终纳税人获得了约 2650 亿美元的救助（按 2021 年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄罗斯的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运作方式如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦-格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）说，当 LTCM 失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何能与他感受到的恐怖相提并论的东西”。LTCM 被认为 “大到不能倒”，他策划了 14 家美国主要金融机构的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构过度使用杠杆，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行又一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人出手相救。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆炸，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于门外汉来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思： 咨询公司安永估计，全球约有 10,000 家家族理财室，但市场研究公司坎普登研究公司（Campden Research）的另一项估计显示，管理规模接近 6 万亿美元。鉴于 2019 年的数据，这 6 万亿美元现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的资金管理人</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这就是潜在的危险。家族理财室一般不受监管。1940 年的《投资顾问法》规定，拥有 15 家或以下客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元在起作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，投资了什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大力押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司（Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS），-1.19%，美国上市中国辅导公司跟谁学公司（GSX），-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司ViacomCBS Inc.VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。股价最近暴跌，引发了 Archegos 的大规模出售——约 300 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道 Archegos 与华尔街的一些大公司合作，包括瑞士信贷集团 AGCS（+1.59%）、瑞银集团 AGUBS（+1.01%）、高盛集团 GS（-1.25%）、摩根士丹利 MS（-0.28%）、德意志银行 AGDB，+0.74% 和野村控股公司 NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是，由于家族理财室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说出这里到底涉及多少钱，市场风险有多大？我的同事马克-德坎布雷（Mark DeCambre）上周报道称，Archegos 的真实不良交易风险实际上可能接近 1000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的来源。随着 Archegos 的赌注走向南方，上述银行--考虑到自己的损失--用保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行很快抛售了约 40 亿美元的持股，而据说高盛和摩根士丹利也已解除头寸，这或许限制了它们的下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎并非如此。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会已对 Archegos 及其创始人 Bill Hwang 展开初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>一位同行，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee，将评级-黄（John Hwang）列为他所知道的 “十大最佳投资头脑 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012 年，黄的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司（Tiger Asia Management）被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易，认罪并支付了 6000 多万美元的罚款。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄代表客户管理资金——实质上将他逐出了对冲基金行业。于是 Hwang 开了 Archegos，再说一遍，家族办公室一般都不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）的关注。她上周表示，需要对金融业的这些私人角落进行更严格的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新启动了一个特别工作组，以帮助各机构更好地 “共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯的话来说，家族理财室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在很大程度上被允许在比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂的全球金融体系的阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪拥有，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的崩溃可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但是，谁能说成千上万的其他家族理财室如何处理他们的数万亿美元，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125348239,"gmtCreate":1624660905221,"gmtModify":1633950057765,"author":{"id":"3574310273786717","authorId":"3574310273786717","name":"Cerealslysj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2384f1e4c512572d62d0dfaabf7881c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574310273786717","idStr":"3574310273786717"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nicee","listText":"Nicee","text":"Nicee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125348239","repostId":"1119853713","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119853713","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624631902,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1119853713?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 22:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix Rises as Credit Suisse Sees Subscriber Growth Normalizing<blockquote>随着瑞士信贷看到用户增长正常化，Netflix 上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119853713","media":"The Street","summary":"Netflix was upgraded to outperform with a $586 price target at Credit Suisse, which expects subscrib","content":"<p>  Netflix was upgraded to outperform with a $586 price target at Credit Suisse, which expects subscriber growth to normalize.  Shares of Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) were higher on Friday after the video-streaming service was upgraded to outperform from neutral by analysts at Credit Suisse.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷将 Netflix 的评级上调至跑赢大盘，目标价为 586 美元，预计用户增长将恢复正常。Netflix 股票（<b>NFLX</b>瑞士信贷分析师将视频流服务从中性上调至跑赢大盘后，周五股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> The investment firm's analysts say they expect subscriber growth to normalize in the fourth quarter. A survey by the firm among U.S. customers reinforced the platform's competitive position and high user satisfaction, CS said.</p><p><blockquote>该投资公司的分析师表示，他们预计第四季度用户增长将恢复正常。CS 表示，该公司对美国客户进行的一项调查加强了该平台的竞争地位和较高的用户满意度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Jon Markman on Real Money Picks Stocks for the Digital Future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Real Money 的 Jon Markman 为数字未来挑选股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts maintained their $586 price target while saying the stock is at a favorable entry point and attractive absolute valuation.</p><p><blockquote>分析师维持 586 美元的目标价，同时表示该股正处于有利的切入点和有吸引力的绝对估值。</blockquote></p><p> The firm sees a strong August to December pipeline on releases with \"numerous potential top-of-funnel titles,\" according to analyst Douglas Mitchelson. He also expects a stronger full-year slate in 2022 vs 2021.</p><p><blockquote>分析师道格拉斯·米切尔森 (Douglas Mitchelson) 表示，该公司预计 8 月至 12 月的发行渠道将强劲，其中“有许多潜在的漏斗顶部图书”。他还预计 2022 年全年业绩将比 2021 年更加强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Second-quarter results and third-quarter guidance are still uncertain and any disappointment could be a \"clearing event\" ahead of a rebound in the fourth quarter, according to Mitchelson.</p><p><blockquote>米切尔森表示，第二季度业绩和第三季度指引仍不确定，任何失望都可能成为第四季度反弹之前的“清算事件”。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Netflix at last check were 1.7% higher $527.14.</p><p><blockquote>最后一次检查时，Netflix 股价上涨 1.7%，至 527.14 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abf3270957252db3a40ff3b8f395e66d\" tg-width=\"712\" tg-height=\"530\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Earlier this month, Netflix and&nbsp;Amblin Partners, the film and television studio led by Steven Spielberg, raised the curtain ona partnership.&nbsp;In the deal, the Hollywood director's company will produce multiple films a year for the Los Gatos, Calif., streaming giant.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，网飞和史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格领导的电影和电视工作室Amblin Partners揭开了合作的帷幕。在这笔交易中，这位好莱坞导演的公司将为加州洛斯加托斯的流媒体巨头每年制作多部电影。</blockquote></p><p> Spielberg, the Oscar-winning director of \"Schindler's&nbsp;List,\" \"Jurassic Park\" and \"Saving Private Ryan,\" will continue to direct movies for Comcast's&nbsp;(<b>CMCSA</b>) -Get ReportUniversal Pictures as part of a separate deal.</p><p><blockquote>曾执导过《辛德勒的名单》、《侏罗纪公园》和《拯救大兵瑞恩》的奥斯卡获奖导演斯皮尔伯格将继续为康卡斯特（<b>CMCSA</b>) - 获取 ReportUniversal Pictures 作为单独交易的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this month, Netflix launched Netflix.shop, whichwill sell curatedproducts including apparel, toys and games.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，Netflix 推出了 Netflix.shop，将销售包括服装、玩具和游戏在内的精选产品。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix Rises as Credit Suisse Sees Subscriber Growth Normalizing<blockquote>随着瑞士信贷看到用户增长正常化，Netflix 上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix Rises as Credit Suisse Sees Subscriber Growth Normalizing<blockquote>随着瑞士信贷看到用户增长正常化，Netflix 上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-25 22:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Netflix was upgraded to outperform with a $586 price target at Credit Suisse, which expects subscriber growth to normalize.  Shares of Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) were higher on Friday after the video-streaming service was upgraded to outperform from neutral by analysts at Credit Suisse.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷将 Netflix 的评级上调至跑赢大盘，目标价为 586 美元，预计用户增长将恢复正常。Netflix 股票（<b>NFLX</b>瑞士信贷分析师将视频流服务从中性上调至跑赢大盘后，周五股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> The investment firm's analysts say they expect subscriber growth to normalize in the fourth quarter. A survey by the firm among U.S. customers reinforced the platform's competitive position and high user satisfaction, CS said.</p><p><blockquote>该投资公司的分析师表示，他们预计第四季度用户增长将恢复正常。CS 表示，该公司对美国客户进行的一项调查加强了该平台的竞争地位和较高的用户满意度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Jon Markman on Real Money Picks Stocks for the Digital Future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Real Money 的 Jon Markman 为数字未来挑选股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts maintained their $586 price target while saying the stock is at a favorable entry point and attractive absolute valuation.</p><p><blockquote>分析师维持 586 美元的目标价，同时表示该股正处于有利的切入点和有吸引力的绝对估值。</blockquote></p><p> The firm sees a strong August to December pipeline on releases with \"numerous potential top-of-funnel titles,\" according to analyst Douglas Mitchelson. He also expects a stronger full-year slate in 2022 vs 2021.</p><p><blockquote>分析师道格拉斯·米切尔森 (Douglas Mitchelson) 表示，该公司预计 8 月至 12 月的发行渠道将强劲，其中“有许多潜在的漏斗顶部图书”。他还预计 2022 年全年业绩将比 2021 年更加强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Second-quarter results and third-quarter guidance are still uncertain and any disappointment could be a \"clearing event\" ahead of a rebound in the fourth quarter, according to Mitchelson.</p><p><blockquote>米切尔森表示，第二季度业绩和第三季度指引仍不确定，任何失望都可能成为第四季度反弹之前的“清算事件”。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Netflix at last check were 1.7% higher $527.14.</p><p><blockquote>最后一次检查时，Netflix 股价上涨 1.7%，至 527.14 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abf3270957252db3a40ff3b8f395e66d\" tg-width=\"712\" tg-height=\"530\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Earlier this month, Netflix and&nbsp;Amblin Partners, the film and television studio led by Steven Spielberg, raised the curtain ona partnership.&nbsp;In the deal, the Hollywood director's company will produce multiple films a year for the Los Gatos, Calif., streaming giant.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，网飞和史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格领导的电影和电视工作室Amblin Partners揭开了合作的帷幕。在这笔交易中，这位好莱坞导演的公司将为加州洛斯加托斯的流媒体巨头每年制作多部电影。</blockquote></p><p> Spielberg, the Oscar-winning director of \"Schindler's&nbsp;List,\" \"Jurassic Park\" and \"Saving Private Ryan,\" will continue to direct movies for Comcast's&nbsp;(<b>CMCSA</b>) -Get ReportUniversal Pictures as part of a separate deal.</p><p><blockquote>曾执导过《辛德勒的名单》、《侏罗纪公园》和《拯救大兵瑞恩》的奥斯卡获奖导演斯皮尔伯格将继续为康卡斯特（<b>CMCSA</b>) - 获取 ReportUniversal Pictures 作为单独交易的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this month, Netflix launched Netflix.shop, whichwill sell curatedproducts including apparel, toys and games.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，Netflix 推出了 Netflix.shop，将销售包括服装、玩具和游戏在内的精选产品。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/netflix-climbs-on-credit-suisse-upgrade-to-outperform\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/netflix-climbs-on-credit-suisse-upgrade-to-outperform","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119853713","content_text":"Netflix was upgraded to outperform with a $586 price target at Credit Suisse, which expects subscriber growth to normalize.\n\nShares of Netflix (NFLX) were higher on Friday after the video-streaming service was upgraded to outperform from neutral by analysts at Credit Suisse.\nThe investment firm's analysts say they expect subscriber growth to normalize in the fourth quarter. A survey by the firm among U.S. customers reinforced the platform's competitive position and high user satisfaction, CS said.\nJon Markman on Real Money Picks Stocks for the Digital Future\nAnalysts maintained their $586 price target while saying the stock is at a favorable entry point and attractive absolute valuation.\nThe firm sees a strong August to December pipeline on releases with \"numerous potential top-of-funnel titles,\" according to analyst Douglas Mitchelson. He also expects a stronger full-year slate in 2022 vs 2021.\nSecond-quarter results and third-quarter guidance are still uncertain and any disappointment could be a \"clearing event\" ahead of a rebound in the fourth quarter, according to Mitchelson.\nShares of Netflix at last check were 1.7% higher $527.14.\n\nEarlier this month, Netflix and Amblin Partners, the film and television studio led by Steven Spielberg, raised the curtain ona partnership. In the deal, the Hollywood director's company will produce multiple films a year for the Los Gatos, Calif., streaming giant.\nSpielberg, the Oscar-winning director of \"Schindler's List,\" \"Jurassic Park\" and \"Saving Private Ryan,\" will continue to direct movies for Comcast's (CMCSA) -Get ReportUniversal Pictures as part of a separate deal.\nEarlier this month, Netflix launched Netflix.shop, whichwill sell curatedproducts including apparel, toys and games.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346558043,"gmtCreate":1618090433582,"gmtModify":1634294977147,"author":{"id":"3574310273786717","authorId":"3574310273786717","name":"Cerealslysj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2384f1e4c512572d62d0dfaabf7881c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574310273786717","idStr":"3574310273786717"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oyea","listText":"Oyea","text":"Oyea","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346558043","repostId":"1136941144","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1922,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342041882,"gmtCreate":1618137678846,"gmtModify":1634294734386,"author":{"id":"3574310273786717","authorId":"3574310273786717","name":"Cerealslysj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2384f1e4c512572d62d0dfaabf7881c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574310273786717","idStr":"3574310273786717"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice!!&nbsp;","listText":"Nice!!&nbsp;","text":"Nice!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342041882","repostId":"2126315033","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342268691,"gmtCreate":1618222767613,"gmtModify":1634294353295,"author":{"id":"3574310273786717","authorId":"3574310273786717","name":"Cerealslysj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2384f1e4c512572d62d0dfaabf7881c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574310273786717","idStr":"3574310273786717"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Niceeeee","listText":"Niceeeee","text":"Niceeeee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342268691","repostId":"1166173769","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166173769","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1618222468,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166173769?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why 'Options Action' Traders See Opportunity For VIX Trade<blockquote>为什么“期权行动”交易者看到 VIX 交易的机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166173769","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"OnCNBC's \"Options Action,\"Mike Khouw spoke about a bullish options trade in VIX futures. He said the","content":"<p>OnCNBC's \"Options Action,\"Mike Khouw spoke about a bullish options trade in VIX futures. He said the VIX and S&amp;P 500 are \"anti-correlated\" as one goes down when the other goes up. So when you make a bullish bet on VIX, you are betting that the S&amp;P 500 is going to fall.</p><p><blockquote>OnCNBC 的“期权行动”中，Mike Khouw 谈到了 VIX 期货的看涨期权交易。他表示，VIX 和标普500是“反相关的”，因为一个下跌，另一个上涨。因此，当您看涨 VIX 时，您就是在押注标普500将会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, he noticed a purchase of 200,000 contracts of the July 25/40 call spread in July futures. A trader paid around $2.07 for the trade, which represents an outlay of around $40 million. The trade breaks even at 27.07 and it can make a maximal profit of $12.93. Khouw said it is important to know that when there is a spike in VIX, the longer-dated futures do not move as much as spot VIX.</p><p><blockquote>周四，他注意到7月期货中购买了20万份7月25日/40日看涨期权价差合约。一名交易员为这笔交易支付了约 2.07 美元，相当于约 4000 万美元的支出。该交易在 27.07 处收支平衡，最大利润为 12.93 美元。Khouw表示，重要的是要知道，当VIX出现飙升时，长期期货的波动幅度不会像现货VIX那样大。</blockquote></p><p> Carter Worth said that VIX gapped higher in March 2020 and it took a year for it to fill that gap. Worth expects to see a pop in the VIX.</p><p><blockquote>Carter Worth 表示，VIX 在 2020 年 3 月的缺口更高，花了一年时间才填补这一缺口。沃斯预计 VIX 指数将出现上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Tony Zhang likes the trade and he sees it as a smart and low-cost way to hedge a large institutional portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>Tony Zhang 喜欢这种交易，他认为这是对冲大型机构投资组合的一种明智且低成本的方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why 'Options Action' Traders See Opportunity For VIX Trade<blockquote>为什么“期权行动”交易者看到 VIX 交易的机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy 'Options Action' Traders See Opportunity For VIX Trade<blockquote>为什么“期权行动”交易者看到 VIX 交易的机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-12 18:14</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OnCNBC's \"Options Action,\"Mike Khouw spoke about a bullish options trade in VIX futures. He said the VIX and S&amp;P 500 are \"anti-correlated\" as one goes down when the other goes up. So when you make a bullish bet on VIX, you are betting that the S&amp;P 500 is going to fall.</p><p><blockquote>OnCNBC 的“期权行动”中，Mike Khouw 谈到了 VIX 期货的看涨期权交易。他表示，VIX 和标普500是“反相关的”，因为一个下跌，另一个上涨。因此，当您看涨 VIX 时，您就是在押注标普500将会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, he noticed a purchase of 200,000 contracts of the July 25/40 call spread in July futures. A trader paid around $2.07 for the trade, which represents an outlay of around $40 million. The trade breaks even at 27.07 and it can make a maximal profit of $12.93. Khouw said it is important to know that when there is a spike in VIX, the longer-dated futures do not move as much as spot VIX.</p><p><blockquote>周四，他注意到7月期货中购买了20万份7月25日/40日看涨期权价差合约。一名交易员为这笔交易支付了约 2.07 美元，相当于约 4000 万美元的支出。该交易在 27.07 处收支平衡，最大利润为 12.93 美元。Khouw表示，重要的是要知道，当VIX出现飙升时，长期期货的波动幅度不会像现货VIX那样大。</blockquote></p><p> Carter Worth said that VIX gapped higher in March 2020 and it took a year for it to fill that gap. Worth expects to see a pop in the VIX.</p><p><blockquote>Carter Worth 表示，VIX 在 2020 年 3 月的缺口更高，花了一年时间才填补这一缺口。沃斯预计 VIX 指数将出现上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Tony Zhang likes the trade and he sees it as a smart and low-cost way to hedge a large institutional portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>Tony Zhang 喜欢这种交易，他认为这是对冲大型机构投资组合的一种明智且低成本的方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VIX":"标普500波动率指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166173769","content_text":"OnCNBC's \"Options Action,\"Mike Khouw spoke about a bullish options trade in VIX futures. He said the VIX and S&P 500 are \"anti-correlated\" as one goes down when the other goes up. So when you make a bullish bet on VIX, you are betting that the S&P 500 is going to fall.\nOn Thursday, he noticed a purchase of 200,000 contracts of the July 25/40 call spread in July futures. A trader paid around $2.07 for the trade, which represents an outlay of around $40 million. The trade breaks even at 27.07 and it can make a maximal profit of $12.93. Khouw said it is important to know that when there is a spike in VIX, the longer-dated futures do not move as much as spot VIX.\nCarter Worth said that VIX gapped higher in March 2020 and it took a year for it to fill that gap. Worth expects to see a pop in the VIX.\nTony Zhang likes the trade and he sees it as a smart and low-cost way to hedge a large institutional portfolio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VIX":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348393936,"gmtCreate":1617886760025,"gmtModify":1634295966062,"author":{"id":"3574310273786717","authorId":"3574310273786717","name":"Cerealslysj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2384f1e4c512572d62d0dfaabf7881c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574310273786717","idStr":"3574310273786717"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348393936","repostId":"2125577721","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343347490,"gmtCreate":1617682672510,"gmtModify":1634297124682,"author":{"id":"3574310273786717","authorId":"3574310273786717","name":"Cerealslysj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2384f1e4c512572d62d0dfaabf7881c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574310273786717","idStr":"3574310273786717"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343347490","repostId":"2125798879","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349402148,"gmtCreate":1617630259484,"gmtModify":1634297450963,"author":{"id":"3574310273786717","authorId":"3574310273786717","name":"Cerealslysj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2384f1e4c512572d62d0dfaabf7881c6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574310273786717","idStr":"3574310273786717"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349402148","repostId":"1130993065","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130993065","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617627632,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1130993065?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-05 21:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s the $4.5 trillion ‘firepower’ that will drive stocks higher in April, says top strategist<blockquote>顶级策略师表示，4.5万亿美元的“火力”将推动4月份股市走高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130993065","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"A new month is off to a bullish start, or so it seems, as stock futures climb following Friday’s bet","content":"<p>A new month is off to a bullish start, or so it seems, as stock futures climb following Friday’s better-than-expected,916,000 gain&nbsp;in March jobs, which underpins investor hopes for a strong post-COVID-19 rebound.</p><p><blockquote>在周五 3 月份新增就业岗位 91.6 万个好于预期之后，股指期货攀升，这巩固了投资者对 COVID-19 后强劲反弹的希望。</blockquote></p><p>As for the data, there’s a lot to like, according to Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors.</p><p><blockquote>SGH Macro Advisors 首席美国经济学家蒂姆-杜伊（Tim Duy）认为，至于数据，有很多值得称道的地方。</blockquote></p><p>“Assuming the pandemic only comes under greater control this year, I suspect a substantial impediment limiting the pace of job growth this year will be the pace at which firms can hire employees. Firing is easier than hiring and employers are now scrambling to add workers,” Duy told clients in a note.</p><p><blockquote>“假设今年大流行病只能得到更好的控制，我怀疑限制今年就业增长速度的一个主要障碍将是企业招聘员工的速度。解雇比招聘容易，雇主们现在都在争先恐后地增加员工，”杜伊在一份说明中告诉客户。</blockquote></p><p>Hence, watch for those “we can’t hire worker” stories, to come, he says.</p><p><blockquote>因此，他说，要留意那些 “我们雇不到工人 ”的故事。</blockquote></p><p>Onto our&nbsp;<b>call of the day</b>&nbsp;from Fundstrat Global Advisors’s founder Thomas Lee, who says the “face ripper” rally he recently predicted shows no signs of easing up. And there’s a $4.5 trillion reason to believe gains will carry into April, he told clients.</p><p><blockquote>到我们的<b>今日看涨期权</b>Fundstrat Global Advisors 创始人托马斯-李（Thomas Lee）表示，他最近预测的 “撕脸 ”反弹没有放缓的迹象。他告诉客户，有 4.5 万亿美元的理由相信收益将持续到 4 月份。</blockquote></p><p>Aside from the positives out there already for this market — a strong economy and vaccine rollout — Lee points to a pile of institutional money on the sidelines, with cash balances at $3 trillion, the highest since June 2020. That’s against $2.764 trillion at the start of 2021, a “dramatic” gain of 9% or $241 billion, said Lee.</p><p><blockquote>除了这个市场已经存在的积极因素——强劲的经济和疫苗的推出——李指出，还有大量机构资金处于观望状态，现金余额达到 3 万亿美元，为 2020 年 6 月以来的最高水平。李说，与 2021 年初的 2.764 万亿美元相比，这一数字 “戏剧性 ”增长了 9%，即 2410 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>A cautious stance by institutions that went “parabolic” in the last half of March, adds to the $1.5 trillion in retail money market cash.</p><p><blockquote>3 月下半月 “抛物线 ”的机构采取了谨慎的立场，使零售货币市场现金达到 1.5 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>“Total cash on the sidelines is $4.5 trillion = tons and tons of firepower on the sidelines. This bodes well for April equity gains,” said Lee.</p><p><blockquote>“场外现金总额为 4.5 万亿美元 = 场外火力成吨。这对 4 月份的股价上涨来说是个好兆头，”李说。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b63c34415ffe19164a54a324b427d\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Lee expects small-caps, energy and cyclical stocks — geared toward an economic recovery — to continue leading into the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>李预计，面向经济复苏的小盘股、能源股和周期性股将继续领先第二季度。</blockquote></p><p>“Recall that cyclicals are only 33% of the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;overall weight and more than 60% of the Russell 2000 index.&nbsp; So if Cyclicals, aka Epicenter, work, small-cap stocks will outperform,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“回想一下，周期性股票仅占标普500总权重的 33%，占罗素 2000 指数的 60% 以上。因此，如果周期性股票（即震中）发挥作用，小盘股的表现将优于大盘，”他说。</blockquote></p><p><b>Watch this chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>观看此图表</b></blockquote></p><p>Adam Kobeissi, founder and editor in chief of&nbsp;The Kobeissi Letter, expects the bullish jobs report to send the S&amp;P 500 to 4,035 to 4,050 in the near term, but from there he’d like to see it pull back to 3,950 to 4,000, to set up for another higher low before a move toward 4,100.</p><p><blockquote>The Kobeissi Letter 的创始人兼主编 Adam Kobeissi 预计，看涨的就业报告将使标普500在短期内达到 4,035 至 4,050 人，但他希望看到就业报告回落至 3,950 至 4,000 人，为另一个更高的低点奠定基础，然后再向 4,100 人移动。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9abfb431da31b94898bf8d11e3744681\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"706\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>THE KOBEISSI LETTER</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>科贝西信</span></p></blockquote></p><p>“Therefore, we are remaining on the sidelines to start this week, as stepping in front of a market this strong is not a stance we want to take, and will maintain a medium term bullish outlook with the intention of getting back into our bullish positions in the wake of a drop in the market,” Kobeissi told subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“科贝西对订户说：”因此，本周我们将保持观望态度，因为在如此强劲的市场面前站稳脚跟并不是我们想采取的立场，我们将维持中期看涨前景，打算在市场下跌后重新回到看涨头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s the $4.5 trillion ‘firepower’ that will drive stocks higher in April, says top strategist<blockquote>顶级策略师表示，4.5万亿美元的“火力”将推动4月份股市走高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s the $4.5 trillion ‘firepower’ that will drive stocks higher in April, says top strategist<blockquote>顶级策略师表示，4.5万亿美元的“火力”将推动4月份股市走高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-05 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A new month is off to a bullish start, or so it seems, as stock futures climb following Friday’s better-than-expected,916,000 gain&nbsp;in March jobs, which underpins investor hopes for a strong post-COVID-19 rebound.</p><p><blockquote>在周五 3 月份新增就业岗位 91.6 万个好于预期之后，股指期货攀升，这巩固了投资者对 COVID-19 后强劲反弹的希望。</blockquote></p><p>As for the data, there’s a lot to like, according to Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors.</p><p><blockquote>SGH Macro Advisors 首席美国经济学家蒂姆-杜伊（Tim Duy）认为，至于数据，有很多值得称道的地方。</blockquote></p><p>“Assuming the pandemic only comes under greater control this year, I suspect a substantial impediment limiting the pace of job growth this year will be the pace at which firms can hire employees. Firing is easier than hiring and employers are now scrambling to add workers,” Duy told clients in a note.</p><p><blockquote>“假设今年大流行病只能得到更好的控制，我怀疑限制今年就业增长速度的一个主要障碍将是企业招聘员工的速度。解雇比招聘容易，雇主们现在都在争先恐后地增加员工，”杜伊在一份说明中告诉客户。</blockquote></p><p>Hence, watch for those “we can’t hire worker” stories, to come, he says.</p><p><blockquote>因此，他说，要留意那些 “我们雇不到工人 ”的故事。</blockquote></p><p>Onto our&nbsp;<b>call of the day</b>&nbsp;from Fundstrat Global Advisors’s founder Thomas Lee, who says the “face ripper” rally he recently predicted shows no signs of easing up. And there’s a $4.5 trillion reason to believe gains will carry into April, he told clients.</p><p><blockquote>到我们的<b>今日看涨期权</b>Fundstrat Global Advisors 创始人托马斯-李（Thomas Lee）表示，他最近预测的 “撕脸 ”反弹没有放缓的迹象。他告诉客户，有 4.5 万亿美元的理由相信收益将持续到 4 月份。</blockquote></p><p>Aside from the positives out there already for this market — a strong economy and vaccine rollout — Lee points to a pile of institutional money on the sidelines, with cash balances at $3 trillion, the highest since June 2020. That’s against $2.764 trillion at the start of 2021, a “dramatic” gain of 9% or $241 billion, said Lee.</p><p><blockquote>除了这个市场已经存在的积极因素——强劲的经济和疫苗的推出——李指出，还有大量机构资金处于观望状态，现金余额达到 3 万亿美元，为 2020 年 6 月以来的最高水平。李说，与 2021 年初的 2.764 万亿美元相比，这一数字 “戏剧性 ”增长了 9%，即 2410 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>A cautious stance by institutions that went “parabolic” in the last half of March, adds to the $1.5 trillion in retail money market cash.</p><p><blockquote>3 月下半月 “抛物线 ”的机构采取了谨慎的立场，使零售货币市场现金达到 1.5 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>“Total cash on the sidelines is $4.5 trillion = tons and tons of firepower on the sidelines. This bodes well for April equity gains,” said Lee.</p><p><blockquote>“场外现金总额为 4.5 万亿美元 = 场外火力成吨。这对 4 月份的股价上涨来说是个好兆头，”李说。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2b63c34415ffe19164a54a324b427d\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Lee expects small-caps, energy and cyclical stocks — geared toward an economic recovery — to continue leading into the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>李预计，面向经济复苏的小盘股、能源股和周期性股将继续领先第二季度。</blockquote></p><p>“Recall that cyclicals are only 33% of the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;overall weight and more than 60% of the Russell 2000 index.&nbsp; So if Cyclicals, aka Epicenter, work, small-cap stocks will outperform,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“回想一下，周期性股票仅占标普500总权重的 33%，占罗素 2000 指数的 60% 以上。因此，如果周期性股票（即震中）发挥作用，小盘股的表现将优于大盘，”他说。</blockquote></p><p><b>Watch this chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>观看此图表</b></blockquote></p><p>Adam Kobeissi, founder and editor in chief of&nbsp;The Kobeissi Letter, expects the bullish jobs report to send the S&amp;P 500 to 4,035 to 4,050 in the near term, but from there he’d like to see it pull back to 3,950 to 4,000, to set up for another higher low before a move toward 4,100.</p><p><blockquote>The Kobeissi Letter 的创始人兼主编 Adam Kobeissi 预计，看涨的就业报告将使标普500在短期内达到 4,035 至 4,050 人，但他希望看到就业报告回落至 3,950 至 4,000 人，为另一个更高的低点奠定基础，然后再向 4,100 人移动。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9abfb431da31b94898bf8d11e3744681\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"706\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>THE KOBEISSI LETTER</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>科贝西信</span></p></blockquote></p><p>“Therefore, we are remaining on the sidelines to start this week, as stepping in front of a market this strong is not a stance we want to take, and will maintain a medium term bullish outlook with the intention of getting back into our bullish positions in the wake of a drop in the market,” Kobeissi told subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“科贝西对订户说：”因此，本周我们将保持观望态度，因为在如此强劲的市场面前站稳脚跟并不是我们想采取的立场，我们将维持中期看涨前景，打算在市场下跌后重新回到看涨头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-4-5-trillion-firepower-that-will-drive-stocks-higher-in-april-says-top-strategist-11617621774?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-4-5-trillion-firepower-that-will-drive-stocks-higher-in-april-says-top-strategist-11617621774?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130993065","content_text":"A new month is off to a bullish start, or so it seems, as stock futures climb following Friday’s better-than-expected,916,000 gain in March jobs, which underpins investor hopes for a strong post-COVID-19 rebound.As for the data, there’s a lot to like, according to Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors.“Assuming the pandemic only comes under greater control this year, I suspect a substantial impediment limiting the pace of job growth this year will be the pace at which firms can hire employees. Firing is easier than hiring and employers are now scrambling to add workers,” Duy told clients in a note.Hence, watch for those “we can’t hire worker” stories, to come, he says.Onto our call of the day from Fundstrat Global Advisors’s founder Thomas Lee, who says the “face ripper” rally he recently predicted shows no signs of easing up. And there’s a $4.5 trillion reason to believe gains will carry into April, he told clients.Aside from the positives out there already for this market — a strong economy and vaccine rollout — Lee points to a pile of institutional money on the sidelines, with cash balances at $3 trillion, the highest since June 2020. That’s against $2.764 trillion at the start of 2021, a “dramatic” gain of 9% or $241 billion, said Lee.A cautious stance by institutions that went “parabolic” in the last half of March, adds to the $1.5 trillion in retail money market cash.“Total cash on the sidelines is $4.5 trillion = tons and tons of firepower on the sidelines. This bodes well for April equity gains,” said Lee.Lee expects small-caps, energy and cyclical stocks — geared toward an economic recovery — to continue leading into the second quarter.“Recall that cyclicals are only 33% of the S&P 500 overall weight and more than 60% of the Russell 2000 index.  So if Cyclicals, aka Epicenter, work, small-cap stocks will outperform,” he said.Watch this chartAdam Kobeissi, founder and editor in chief of The Kobeissi Letter, expects the bullish jobs report to send the S&P 500 to 4,035 to 4,050 in the near term, but from there he’d like to see it pull back to 3,950 to 4,000, to set up for another higher low before a move toward 4,100.THE KOBEISSI LETTER“Therefore, we are remaining on the sidelines to start this week, as stepping in front of a market this strong is not a stance we want to take, and will maintain a medium term bullish outlook with the intention of getting back into our bullish positions in the wake of a drop in the market,” Kobeissi told subscribers.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}