王大发啊的个人主页 - 老虎社区

王大发啊

王大发啊

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1主题

0勋章

2021-02-28

[呆住]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-26

[呆住]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-18

[微笑]

新能源车概念普跌，小鹏汽车跌超5%百度跌超4%

2021-02-12

[鬼脸]

次新股容联云涨超11%报34.5美元，IPO定价16美元

2021-02-12

[呆住] [呆住]

Riot Blockchain涨超22%，股价创下3年来新高

2021-02-11

[财迷] [财迷]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-06

快手最亮眼的仔

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-05

不带停的

荔枝大涨近60%，股价本周已翻三倍

2021-01-25

泡沫炸掉前，就看谁跑得快了。

美股这么贵是不是泡沫？高盛：是，但别担心

2021-01-25

b站

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-28

[财迷]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-22

[财迷]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-09

一地鸡毛

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-02

有点牛批啊

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-01

30几倍了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-01-28

早晚要暴跌

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-01-28

回调是肯定的，就是不知道回调前还要拉升多少[生病]

财报“亮眼”也没用？华尔街警告2月市场全面回调

2021-01-25

买龙头就对了

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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23:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与<a 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10:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报“亮眼”也没用？华尔街警告2月市场全面回调","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170092741","media":"Wind万得","summary":"隔夜微软发布财报显示，云计算服务在疫情疫情期间强劲增长。本周大型科技巨头陆续公布财报，但华尔街却开始看向二月市场回调风险。\n大型科技公司有望收获不俗业绩\n在2020年多数时间领涨市场以后，科技股在去年","content":"<p>隔夜<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>发布财报显示，云计算服务在疫情疫情期间强劲增长。本周大型科技巨头陆续公布财报，但华尔街却开始看向二月市场回调风险。</p>\n<p><b>大型科技公司有望收获不俗业绩</b></p>\n<p>在2020年多数时间领涨市场以后，科技股在去年年底涨势停顿，而周期股则受经济复苏预期支撑，获得强劲涨幅。</p>\n<p>不过随着财报季的到来，美股板块轮动又有“回头”迹象。Horizon Investment Services首席执行官Chuck Carlson表示，标普500成分股企业将有约四分之一再本周公布财报，可能有助于决定增长股重新崛起的势头能否持续下去，对近期价值股与周期股的涨势构成潜在威胁。“这可能会成为财报季的主轴：过去八、九周美股已经发生了板块轮动，而企业获利对这波轮动的可持续性将具有什么样的意义。”</p>\n<p>而本周公布财报的大型科技企业也确实获得不俗成绩。微软公司周二报告说，其Azure云计算服务增长了50%，因为疫情使该软件制造商在家庭工作和学习方面的投资受益。该公司的股票在盘后交易中上涨了5%，在2020年上涨了约41%。随着疫情加大了在家办公需求，企业纷纷加大了对云计算的投入，这无疑提振了微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>及谷歌的云计算业务。</p>\n<p>在与投资者举行的电话会议上，微软高管表示，他们预计该公司“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>云”业务第三季度收入将达到148.3亿美元，而华尔街的预期为141.2亿美元。微软表示，其“智能云”部门的收入增长了23%，达到146亿美元，其中Azure增长了50%。根据Visible Alpha的共识数据，分析师此前预计Azure的增长将达到41.4%，上一季度Azure增长了48%。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，1月27日本周三，智能手机巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司预计将发布其第一季度财报，分析师预期该公司营收将超过1000亿美元，主要受益于其新iPhone 12系列的强劲早期表现，以及受远程办公和网络授课提振的Macs和iPad需求。</p>\n<p>在疫情期间，苹果公司的Mac和iPad销量强劲，随着在家办公及网络授课的兴起，这种势头预计有望持续到第一财季。苹果于去年年底推出了新的iPad，并推出了首批采用自己定制芯片的计算机。</p>\n<p>分析师预计苹果服务类别的业绩也将达到创纪录水平，尽管其中某些领域可能也不会保持强劲增长。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师凯蒂·胡伯蒂（Katy Huberty）表示，鉴于发生疫情危机，苹果在将销售转移到其在线商店方面做得很好，但是它“过分依赖店内客户购买”来推动其AppleCare保险产品的销售。</p>\n<p><b>华尔街警告市场二月抛售风险</b></p>\n<p>尽管财报季提振了市场情绪，但华尔街已开始担忧二月市场回调风险。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>的技术分析师斯蒂芬·苏特迈尔（Stephen Suttmeier）周一发表了题为“进入2月的修正风险增加”的报告，指出随着1月即将结束，2月的季节性风险可能表明，现在该“采取获利了结或其他防御措施，因为几个市场指数都达到了2020年大选突破后所预期的上升点。”</p>\n<p>Suttmeier表示，标准普尔500指数从美国总统大选之前构筑的看涨三角形探测了向上目标3,830-3,885，罗素2000指数已达到其第一个上升目标，纳斯达克100则测试了13,500-13,630目标。</p>\n<p>Suttmeier将标普500指数的每月季节性数据追溯到1928年，并指出2月份对于投资者来说是一个危险的月份，尤其是考虑到美联储创造的史诗泡沫中所有乐观情绪和投机行为。其他指标方面， 5天和25天CBOE总看跌/看涨比率都处于逆势看跌超买水平。这位分析师说：“我们认为这提示了一种风险，可能会中断下个月的股市反弹。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8cd2540b43a5402362f7b402ec29d5\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>除了美国银行之外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>首席经济学家几天前在一篇题为“ What Gould Go Error Wrong ”的文章中概述了投资者过度乐观的想法，认为尽管股市在2021年反弹，但其他下行风险依然存在：包括不确定消费者如何应对挥之不去的风险，新病毒突变如何影响病毒传播以及疫苗效力的不确定性。</p>\n<p>由于下行风险越来越大，RIA首席投资策略师兰斯·罗伯茨（Lance Roberts）本周一 表示，已开始出售股票并增加现金持有，以应对未来市场可能出现的回调。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报“亮眼”也没用？华尔街警告2月市场全面回调\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-01-27 10:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>隔夜<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>发布财报显示，云计算服务在疫情疫情期间强劲增长。本周大型科技巨头陆续公布财报，但华尔街却开始看向二月市场回调风险。</p>\n<p><b>大型科技公司有望收获不俗业绩</b></p>\n<p>在2020年多数时间领涨市场以后，科技股在去年年底涨势停顿，而周期股则受经济复苏预期支撑，获得强劲涨幅。</p>\n<p>不过随着财报季的到来，美股板块轮动又有“回头”迹象。Horizon Investment Services首席执行官Chuck Carlson表示，标普500成分股企业将有约四分之一再本周公布财报，可能有助于决定增长股重新崛起的势头能否持续下去，对近期价值股与周期股的涨势构成潜在威胁。“这可能会成为财报季的主轴：过去八、九周美股已经发生了板块轮动，而企业获利对这波轮动的可持续性将具有什么样的意义。”</p>\n<p>而本周公布财报的大型科技企业也确实获得不俗成绩。微软公司周二报告说，其Azure云计算服务增长了50%，因为疫情使该软件制造商在家庭工作和学习方面的投资受益。该公司的股票在盘后交易中上涨了5%，在2020年上涨了约41%。随着疫情加大了在家办公需求，企业纷纷加大了对云计算的投入，这无疑提振了微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>及谷歌的云计算业务。</p>\n<p>在与投资者举行的电话会议上，微软高管表示，他们预计该公司“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>云”业务第三季度收入将达到148.3亿美元，而华尔街的预期为141.2亿美元。微软表示，其“智能云”部门的收入增长了23%，达到146亿美元，其中Azure增长了50%。根据Visible Alpha的共识数据，分析师此前预计Azure的增长将达到41.4%，上一季度Azure增长了48%。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，1月27日本周三，智能手机巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司预计将发布其第一季度财报，分析师预期该公司营收将超过1000亿美元，主要受益于其新iPhone 12系列的强劲早期表现，以及受远程办公和网络授课提振的Macs和iPad需求。</p>\n<p>在疫情期间，苹果公司的Mac和iPad销量强劲，随着在家办公及网络授课的兴起，这种势头预计有望持续到第一财季。苹果于去年年底推出了新的iPad，并推出了首批采用自己定制芯片的计算机。</p>\n<p>分析师预计苹果服务类别的业绩也将达到创纪录水平，尽管其中某些领域可能也不会保持强劲增长。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师凯蒂·胡伯蒂（Katy Huberty）表示，鉴于发生疫情危机，苹果在将销售转移到其在线商店方面做得很好，但是它“过分依赖店内客户购买”来推动其AppleCare保险产品的销售。</p>\n<p><b>华尔街警告市场二月抛售风险</b></p>\n<p>尽管财报季提振了市场情绪，但华尔街已开始担忧二月市场回调风险。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>的技术分析师斯蒂芬·苏特迈尔（Stephen Suttmeier）周一发表了题为“进入2月的修正风险增加”的报告，指出随着1月即将结束，2月的季节性风险可能表明，现在该“采取获利了结或其他防御措施，因为几个市场指数都达到了2020年大选突破后所预期的上升点。”</p>\n<p>Suttmeier表示，标准普尔500指数从美国总统大选之前构筑的看涨三角形探测了向上目标3,830-3,885，罗素2000指数已达到其第一个上升目标，纳斯达克100则测试了13,500-13,630目标。</p>\n<p>Suttmeier将标普500指数的每月季节性数据追溯到1928年，并指出2月份对于投资者来说是一个危险的月份，尤其是考虑到美联储创造的史诗泡沫中所有乐观情绪和投机行为。其他指标方面， 5天和25天CBOE总看跌/看涨比率都处于逆势看跌超买水平。这位分析师说：“我们认为这提示了一种风险，可能会中断下个月的股市反弹。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8cd2540b43a5402362f7b402ec29d5\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>除了美国银行之外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>首席经济学家几天前在一篇题为“ What Gould Go Error Wrong ”的文章中概述了投资者过度乐观的想法，认为尽管股市在2021年反弹，但其他下行风险依然存在：包括不确定消费者如何应对挥之不去的风险，新病毒突变如何影响病毒传播以及疫苗效力的不确定性。</p>\n<p>由于下行风险越来越大，RIA首席投资策略师兰斯·罗伯茨（Lance Roberts）本周一 表示，已开始出售股票并增加现金持有，以应对未来市场可能出现的回调。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3b5e72649367d0aafd9bcbbca9bcd1","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","AMD":"美国超微公司"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170092741","content_text":"隔夜微软发布财报显示，云计算服务在疫情疫情期间强劲增长。本周大型科技巨头陆续公布财报，但华尔街却开始看向二月市场回调风险。\n大型科技公司有望收获不俗业绩\n在2020年多数时间领涨市场以后，科技股在去年年底涨势停顿，而周期股则受经济复苏预期支撑，获得强劲涨幅。\n不过随着财报季的到来，美股板块轮动又有“回头”迹象。Horizon Investment Services首席执行官Chuck Carlson表示，标普500成分股企业将有约四分之一再本周公布财报，可能有助于决定增长股重新崛起的势头能否持续下去，对近期价值股与周期股的涨势构成潜在威胁。“这可能会成为财报季的主轴：过去八、九周美股已经发生了板块轮动，而企业获利对这波轮动的可持续性将具有什么样的意义。”\n而本周公布财报的大型科技企业也确实获得不俗成绩。微软公司周二报告说，其Azure云计算服务增长了50%，因为疫情使该软件制造商在家庭工作和学习方面的投资受益。该公司的股票在盘后交易中上涨了5%，在2020年上涨了约41%。随着疫情加大了在家办公需求，企业纷纷加大了对云计算的投入，这无疑提振了微软、亚马逊及谷歌的云计算业务。\n在与投资者举行的电话会议上，微软高管表示，他们预计该公司“智能云”业务第三季度收入将达到148.3亿美元，而华尔街的预期为141.2亿美元。微软表示，其“智能云”部门的收入增长了23%，达到146亿美元，其中Azure增长了50%。根据Visible Alpha的共识数据，分析师此前预计Azure的增长将达到41.4%，上一季度Azure增长了48%。\n值得注意的是，1月27日本周三，智能手机巨头苹果公司预计将发布其第一季度财报，分析师预期该公司营收将超过1000亿美元，主要受益于其新iPhone 12系列的强劲早期表现，以及受远程办公和网络授课提振的Macs和iPad需求。\n在疫情期间，苹果公司的Mac和iPad销量强劲，随着在家办公及网络授课的兴起，这种势头预计有望持续到第一财季。苹果于去年年底推出了新的iPad，并推出了首批采用自己定制芯片的计算机。\n分析师预计苹果服务类别的业绩也将达到创纪录水平，尽管其中某些领域可能也不会保持强劲增长。摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·胡伯蒂（Katy Huberty）表示，鉴于发生疫情危机，苹果在将销售转移到其在线商店方面做得很好，但是它“过分依赖店内客户购买”来推动其AppleCare保险产品的销售。\n华尔街警告市场二月抛售风险\n尽管财报季提振了市场情绪，但华尔街已开始担忧二月市场回调风险。美国银行的技术分析师斯蒂芬·苏特迈尔（Stephen Suttmeier）周一发表了题为“进入2月的修正风险增加”的报告，指出随着1月即将结束，2月的季节性风险可能表明，现在该“采取获利了结或其他防御措施，因为几个市场指数都达到了2020年大选突破后所预期的上升点。”\nSuttmeier表示，标准普尔500指数从美国总统大选之前构筑的看涨三角形探测了向上目标3,830-3,885，罗素2000指数已达到其第一个上升目标，纳斯达克100则测试了13,500-13,630目标。\nSuttmeier将标普500指数的每月季节性数据追溯到1928年，并指出2月份对于投资者来说是一个危险的月份，尤其是考虑到美联储创造的史诗泡沫中所有乐观情绪和投机行为。其他指标方面， 5天和25天CBOE总看跌/看涨比率都处于逆势看跌超买水平。这位分析师说：“我们认为这提示了一种风险，可能会中断下个月的股市反弹。”\n\n除了美国银行之外，高盛首席经济学家几天前在一篇题为“ What Gould Go Error Wrong ”的文章中概述了投资者过度乐观的想法，认为尽管股市在2021年反弹，但其他下行风险依然存在：包括不确定消费者如何应对挥之不去的风险，新病毒突变如何影响病毒传播以及疫苗效力的不确定性。\n由于下行风险越来越大，RIA首席投资策略师兰斯·罗伯茨（Lance Roberts）本周一 表示，已开始出售股票并增加现金持有，以应对未来市场可能出现的回调。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"AMD":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319616779,"gmtCreate":1611577187591,"gmtModify":1703751106805,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574323863938799","idStr":"3574323863938799"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"泡沫炸掉前，就看谁跑得快了。","listText":"泡沫炸掉前，就看谁跑得快了。","text":"泡沫炸掉前，就看谁跑得快了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319616779","repostId":"1136120648","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136120648","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1611577045,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136120648?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-25 20:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股这么贵是不是泡沫？高盛：是，但别担心","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136120648","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛认为，如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n美股越来越贵，是不是泡沫，泡沫会破裂吗？\n这是很多美股投资者的疑惑。\n最近，高盛给出的答案是，没错，美股的确出现","content":"<blockquote>\n 高盛认为，如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n</blockquote>\n<p>美股越来越贵，是不是泡沫，泡沫会破裂吗？</p>\n<p>这是很多美股投资者的疑惑。</p>\n<p><b>最近，高盛给出的答案是，没错，美股的确出现了泡沫化的迹象，但是，投资者却不必过于担心。</b></p>\n<p>David Kostin等高盛策略师在上周五的一份报告中说，那些涨幅很大、估值很高的高成长股和高市盈率股“似乎存在泡沫，”而特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的如日中天正是美国股市“涨势过头而难以为继的迹象”之一。</p>\n<p>近期利润负增长公司股票成交量的增幅也处于历史极端水平——这也是股市存在泡沫的一个迹象。</p>\n<p>不过，高盛策略师同时指出，若是考虑当前美国国债收益率和公司信贷和现金水平，总体股市指数目前仍在历史平均估值水平之下：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 近来的市场流动性状况表明，投资者行为已经越来越像泡沫化的交易。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 但是，考虑到此类股票较小的市值占比，它们的过头对总体市场构成的系统性风险还算比较低。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>高盛承认美股存在泡沫</b></p>\n<p>Kostin团队承认，美股的确存在泡沫。</p>\n<p>之所以做出这样的判断，最明显的就是目前美股的估值的确处于历史高位：</p>\n<p>从绝对值的角度来看，毫无疑问，当前美股估值极高。</p>\n<p>不论是用市盈率还是市净率等指标，当前标普500指数的估值都处在历史前5%的百分位之中。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd50bfb48704b9b0bfc896adf85c767\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"342\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>高盛：有泡沫没错，但别担心</b></p>\n<p>但在高盛看来，如今美股泡沫并不值得人们过分担忧：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 如今的市场缺乏泡沫所特有的极端的投资者杠杆作用。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 很大程度上是由于财政刺激措施，美国家庭可支配收入在2020年增长强劲，并且因为可能还会有进一步的刺激措施，美国家庭可支配收入有望继续增长。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>此外，居民储蓄仍然很高。如此以来，最近大量流入美国股票的资金显然是由现金而非杠杆带来的。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Kostin认为，如果考虑到美国国债，公司信贷或现金的收益时，现在美国股票市场总指数的交易价格低于历史平均水平：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 事实上，正如经济学家罗伯特·席勒（Robert Shiller）最近指出的那样，他经常引用的周期性调整市盈率（CAPE）表明：\n <b>如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 高盛的经济学家预测，十年期美国国债收益率在2021年底将仅上升至1.5％，在2023年中期仅超过2％。\n</blockquote>\n<p>高盛也进一步宽慰投资者，哪怕美国国债收益率上升，也不必太过担心：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 我们预计适度的高利率将被股票风险溢价的下降所抵消，这将使标准普尔500指数市盈率实际上保持不变，并使每股收益强劲增长，从而将市场推向我们的年底目标价4300点。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>经济复苏之时，买什么？</b></p>\n<p>在如今很多公司因为疫情而亏损的情况下，如何投资？</p>\n<p>高盛认为：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 就像过去的经济周期一样，今天许多亏钱的公司其实盈利能力很强，只不过目前是处在经济衰退期，这才无利可图。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 在经济复苏期间，投资者要做的是，加仓那些在经济低迷时期盈利和股价受重创的公司，尤其是在低利率时期还不见起色的公司。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>在友好的利率环境下，这些公司能够更容易地以低成本借到钱以增加现金流。一旦经济复苏，这些公司实际上的表现往往会超出预期。</b>\n</blockquote>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股这么贵是不是泡沫？高盛：是，但别担心</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股这么贵是不是泡沫？高盛：是，但别担心\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-25 20:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3618309><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛认为，如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n美股越来越贵，是不是泡沫，泡沫会破裂吗？\n这是很多美股投资者的疑惑。\n最近，高盛给出的答案是，没错，美股的确出现了泡沫化的迹象，但是，投资者却不必过于担心。\nDavid Kostin等高盛策略师在上周五的一份报告中说，那些涨幅很大、估值很高的高成长股和高市盈率股“似乎存在泡沫，”而特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3618309\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6f7be647d9aab0404003165041233e","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3618309","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1136120648","content_text":"高盛认为，如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n美股越来越贵，是不是泡沫，泡沫会破裂吗？\n这是很多美股投资者的疑惑。\n最近，高盛给出的答案是，没错，美股的确出现了泡沫化的迹象，但是，投资者却不必过于担心。\nDavid Kostin等高盛策略师在上周五的一份报告中说，那些涨幅很大、估值很高的高成长股和高市盈率股“似乎存在泡沫，”而特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的如日中天正是美国股市“涨势过头而难以为继的迹象”之一。\n近期利润负增长公司股票成交量的增幅也处于历史极端水平——这也是股市存在泡沫的一个迹象。\n不过，高盛策略师同时指出，若是考虑当前美国国债收益率和公司信贷和现金水平，总体股市指数目前仍在历史平均估值水平之下：\n\n 近来的市场流动性状况表明，投资者行为已经越来越像泡沫化的交易。\n\n\n 但是，考虑到此类股票较小的市值占比，它们的过头对总体市场构成的系统性风险还算比较低。\n\n\n如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n高盛承认美股存在泡沫\nKostin团队承认，美股的确存在泡沫。\n之所以做出这样的判断，最明显的就是目前美股的估值的确处于历史高位：\n从绝对值的角度来看，毫无疑问，当前美股估值极高。\n不论是用市盈率还是市净率等指标，当前标普500指数的估值都处在历史前5%的百分位之中。\n\n高盛：有泡沫没错，但别担心\n但在高盛看来，如今美股泡沫并不值得人们过分担忧：\n\n 如今的市场缺乏泡沫所特有的极端的投资者杠杆作用。\n\n\n 很大程度上是由于财政刺激措施，美国家庭可支配收入在2020年增长强劲，并且因为可能还会有进一步的刺激措施，美国家庭可支配收入有望继续增长。\n\n\n此外，居民储蓄仍然很高。如此以来，最近大量流入美国股票的资金显然是由现金而非杠杆带来的。\n\nKostin认为，如果考虑到美国国债，公司信贷或现金的收益时，现在美国股票市场总指数的交易价格低于历史平均水平：\n\n 事实上，正如经济学家罗伯特·席勒（Robert Shiller）最近指出的那样，他经常引用的周期性调整市盈率（CAPE）表明：\n 如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n\n 高盛的经济学家预测，十年期美国国债收益率在2021年底将仅上升至1.5％，在2023年中期仅超过2％。\n\n高盛也进一步宽慰投资者，哪怕美国国债收益率上升，也不必太过担心：\n\n 我们预计适度的高利率将被股票风险溢价的下降所抵消，这将使标准普尔500指数市盈率实际上保持不变，并使每股收益强劲增长，从而将市场推向我们的年底目标价4300点。\n\n经济复苏之时，买什么？\n在如今很多公司因为疫情而亏损的情况下，如何投资？\n高盛认为：\n\n 就像过去的经济周期一样，今天许多亏钱的公司其实盈利能力很强，只不过目前是处在经济衰退期，这才无利可图。\n\n\n 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-17 23:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2月17日（周三），美股新能源汽车概念股持续下挫，截至发稿，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">小牛电动</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌3.73%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌近2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌2.26%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/868e770b2f9876034bd0304c9bc570ba\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c0ab7d3f5d89bb403311ca0a8e68f8e","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","NIU":"小牛电动","LI":"理想汽车","BIDU":"百度","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183798436","content_text":"2月17日（周三），美股新能源汽车概念股持续下挫，截至发稿，小牛电动跌超7%，小鹏汽车跌超5%，百度跌超4%，蔚来跌3.73%，理想汽车跌近2%，特斯拉跌2.26%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"BIDU":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"NIU":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388485074,"gmtCreate":1613083139698,"gmtModify":1634554591184,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574323863938799","idStr":"3574323863938799"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[鬼脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[鬼脸]&nbsp;","text":"[鬼脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388485074","repostId":"1116175927","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116175927","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1613055385,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116175927?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-11 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22:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2月11日美股盘初，容联云涨超11%报34.5美元。2月9日容联云正式在纽交所挂牌上市，发行价为16美元，共发行2000万份ADS，为中国SaaS企业赴美上市第一股。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9e0098e85d5c47c6c67cb6c2378f744\" tg-width=\"1086\" tg-height=\"463\" 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[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388494040","repostId":"1101622765","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101622765","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1613056232,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101622765?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-11 23:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Riot Blockchain涨超22%，股价创下3年来新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101622765","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月11日消息，Riot Blockchain涨超22%，股价创下3年来新高，此前公司表示将通过部署新矿工来提高比特币挖矿算力。今日比特币一度涨超7%，突破48000美元/枚关口。","content":"<p>2月11日消息，Riot Blockchain涨超22%，股价创下3年来新高，此前公司表示将通过部署新矿工来提高比特币挖矿算力。今日比特币一度涨超7%，突破48000美元/枚关口。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/729031c1def965bc11e1b04c74a88fe5\" 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23:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"荔枝大涨近60%，股价本周已翻三倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197633592","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四，荔枝盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议，将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红，在不到一年的时间里就成","content":"<p>周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>达成合作协议，将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。</p>\n<p>近日Clubhouse走红，在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽，这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场，另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额，用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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}\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n荔枝大涨近60%，股价本周已翻三倍\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-04 23:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>达成合作协议，将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。</p>\n<p>近日Clubhouse走红，在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽，这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场，另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额，用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b0297cfccff0a8a073407a5bb08626","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197633592","content_text":"周四，荔枝盘中大涨近60%，股价刷新52周高位，本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上，荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议，将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红，在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽，这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场，另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额，用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LIZI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319616779,"gmtCreate":1611577187591,"gmtModify":1703751106805,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574323863938799","idStr":"3574323863938799"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"泡沫炸掉前，就看谁跑得快了。","listText":"泡沫炸掉前，就看谁跑得快了。","text":"泡沫炸掉前，就看谁跑得快了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319616779","repostId":"1136120648","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136120648","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1611577045,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136120648?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-25 20:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股这么贵是不是泡沫？高盛：是，但别担心","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136120648","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛认为，如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n美股越来越贵，是不是泡沫，泡沫会破裂吗？\n这是很多美股投资者的疑惑。\n最近，高盛给出的答案是，没错，美股的确出现","content":"<blockquote>\n 高盛认为，如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n</blockquote>\n<p>美股越来越贵，是不是泡沫，泡沫会破裂吗？</p>\n<p>这是很多美股投资者的疑惑。</p>\n<p><b>最近，高盛给出的答案是，没错，美股的确出现了泡沫化的迹象，但是，投资者却不必过于担心。</b></p>\n<p>David Kostin等高盛策略师在上周五的一份报告中说，那些涨幅很大、估值很高的高成长股和高市盈率股“似乎存在泡沫，”而特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的如日中天正是美国股市“涨势过头而难以为继的迹象”之一。</p>\n<p>近期利润负增长公司股票成交量的增幅也处于历史极端水平——这也是股市存在泡沫的一个迹象。</p>\n<p>不过，高盛策略师同时指出，若是考虑当前美国国债收益率和公司信贷和现金水平，总体股市指数目前仍在历史平均估值水平之下：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 近来的市场流动性状况表明，投资者行为已经越来越像泡沫化的交易。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 但是，考虑到此类股票较小的市值占比，它们的过头对总体市场构成的系统性风险还算比较低。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>高盛承认美股存在泡沫</b></p>\n<p>Kostin团队承认，美股的确存在泡沫。</p>\n<p>之所以做出这样的判断，最明显的就是目前美股的估值的确处于历史高位：</p>\n<p>从绝对值的角度来看，毫无疑问，当前美股估值极高。</p>\n<p>不论是用市盈率还是市净率等指标，当前标普500指数的估值都处在历史前5%的百分位之中。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd50bfb48704b9b0bfc896adf85c767\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"342\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>高盛：有泡沫没错，但别担心</b></p>\n<p>但在高盛看来，如今美股泡沫并不值得人们过分担忧：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 如今的市场缺乏泡沫所特有的极端的投资者杠杆作用。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 很大程度上是由于财政刺激措施，美国家庭可支配收入在2020年增长强劲，并且因为可能还会有进一步的刺激措施，美国家庭可支配收入有望继续增长。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>此外，居民储蓄仍然很高。如此以来，最近大量流入美国股票的资金显然是由现金而非杠杆带来的。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Kostin认为，如果考虑到美国国债，公司信贷或现金的收益时，现在美国股票市场总指数的交易价格低于历史平均水平：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 事实上，正如经济学家罗伯特·席勒（Robert Shiller）最近指出的那样，他经常引用的周期性调整市盈率（CAPE）表明：\n <b>如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 高盛的经济学家预测，十年期美国国债收益率在2021年底将仅上升至1.5％，在2023年中期仅超过2％。\n</blockquote>\n<p>高盛也进一步宽慰投资者，哪怕美国国债收益率上升，也不必太过担心：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 我们预计适度的高利率将被股票风险溢价的下降所抵消，这将使标准普尔500指数市盈率实际上保持不变，并使每股收益强劲增长，从而将市场推向我们的年底目标价4300点。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>经济复苏之时，买什么？</b></p>\n<p>在如今很多公司因为疫情而亏损的情况下，如何投资？</p>\n<p>高盛认为：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 就像过去的经济周期一样，今天许多亏钱的公司其实盈利能力很强，只不过目前是处在经济衰退期，这才无利可图。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 在经济复苏期间，投资者要做的是，加仓那些在经济低迷时期盈利和股价受重创的公司，尤其是在低利率时期还不见起色的公司。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>在友好的利率环境下，这些公司能够更容易地以低成本借到钱以增加现金流。一旦经济复苏，这些公司实际上的表现往往会超出预期。</b>\n</blockquote>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股这么贵是不是泡沫？高盛：是，但别担心</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股这么贵是不是泡沫？高盛：是，但别担心\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-25 20:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3618309><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛认为，如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n美股越来越贵，是不是泡沫，泡沫会破裂吗？\n这是很多美股投资者的疑惑。\n最近，高盛给出的答案是，没错，美股的确出现了泡沫化的迹象，但是，投资者却不必过于担心。\nDavid Kostin等高盛策略师在上周五的一份报告中说，那些涨幅很大、估值很高的高成长股和高市盈率股“似乎存在泡沫，”而特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3618309\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6f7be647d9aab0404003165041233e","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3618309","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1136120648","content_text":"高盛认为，如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n美股越来越贵，是不是泡沫，泡沫会破裂吗？\n这是很多美股投资者的疑惑。\n最近，高盛给出的答案是，没错，美股的确出现了泡沫化的迹象，但是，投资者却不必过于担心。\nDavid Kostin等高盛策略师在上周五的一份报告中说，那些涨幅很大、估值很高的高成长股和高市盈率股“似乎存在泡沫，”而特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的如日中天正是美国股市“涨势过头而难以为继的迹象”之一。\n近期利润负增长公司股票成交量的增幅也处于历史极端水平——这也是股市存在泡沫的一个迹象。\n不过，高盛策略师同时指出，若是考虑当前美国国债收益率和公司信贷和现金水平，总体股市指数目前仍在历史平均估值水平之下：\n\n 近来的市场流动性状况表明，投资者行为已经越来越像泡沫化的交易。\n\n\n 但是，考虑到此类股票较小的市值占比，它们的过头对总体市场构成的系统性风险还算比较低。\n\n\n如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n高盛承认美股存在泡沫\nKostin团队承认，美股的确存在泡沫。\n之所以做出这样的判断，最明显的就是目前美股的估值的确处于历史高位：\n从绝对值的角度来看，毫无疑问，当前美股估值极高。\n不论是用市盈率还是市净率等指标，当前标普500指数的估值都处在历史前5%的百分位之中。\n\n高盛：有泡沫没错，但别担心\n但在高盛看来，如今美股泡沫并不值得人们过分担忧：\n\n 如今的市场缺乏泡沫所特有的极端的投资者杠杆作用。\n\n\n 很大程度上是由于财政刺激措施，美国家庭可支配收入在2020年增长强劲，并且因为可能还会有进一步的刺激措施，美国家庭可支配收入有望继续增长。\n\n\n此外，居民储蓄仍然很高。如此以来，最近大量流入美国股票的资金显然是由现金而非杠杆带来的。\n\nKostin认为，如果考虑到美国国债，公司信贷或现金的收益时，现在美国股票市场总指数的交易价格低于历史平均水平：\n\n 事实上，正如经济学家罗伯特·席勒（Robert Shiller）最近指出的那样，他经常引用的周期性调整市盈率（CAPE）表明：\n 如果利率保持在相对较低的水平，股票的高估值“不会像某些人想象的那样荒谬”。\n\n\n 高盛的经济学家预测，十年期美国国债收益率在2021年底将仅上升至1.5％，在2023年中期仅超过2％。\n\n高盛也进一步宽慰投资者，哪怕美国国债收益率上升，也不必太过担心：\n\n 我们预计适度的高利率将被股票风险溢价的下降所抵消，这将使标准普尔500指数市盈率实际上保持不变，并使每股收益强劲增长，从而将市场推向我们的年底目标价4300点。\n\n经济复苏之时，买什么？\n在如今很多公司因为疫情而亏损的情况下，如何投资？\n高盛认为：\n\n 就像过去的经济周期一样，今天许多亏钱的公司其实盈利能力很强，只不过目前是处在经济衰退期，这才无利可图。\n\n\n 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10:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报“亮眼”也没用？华尔街警告2月市场全面回调","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170092741","media":"Wind万得","summary":"隔夜微软发布财报显示，云计算服务在疫情疫情期间强劲增长。本周大型科技巨头陆续公布财报，但华尔街却开始看向二月市场回调风险。\n大型科技公司有望收获不俗业绩\n在2020年多数时间领涨市场以后，科技股在去年","content":"<p>隔夜<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>发布财报显示，云计算服务在疫情疫情期间强劲增长。本周大型科技巨头陆续公布财报，但华尔街却开始看向二月市场回调风险。</p>\n<p><b>大型科技公司有望收获不俗业绩</b></p>\n<p>在2020年多数时间领涨市场以后，科技股在去年年底涨势停顿，而周期股则受经济复苏预期支撑，获得强劲涨幅。</p>\n<p>不过随着财报季的到来，美股板块轮动又有“回头”迹象。Horizon Investment Services首席执行官Chuck Carlson表示，标普500成分股企业将有约四分之一再本周公布财报，可能有助于决定增长股重新崛起的势头能否持续下去，对近期价值股与周期股的涨势构成潜在威胁。“这可能会成为财报季的主轴：过去八、九周美股已经发生了板块轮动，而企业获利对这波轮动的可持续性将具有什么样的意义。”</p>\n<p>而本周公布财报的大型科技企业也确实获得不俗成绩。微软公司周二报告说，其Azure云计算服务增长了50%，因为疫情使该软件制造商在家庭工作和学习方面的投资受益。该公司的股票在盘后交易中上涨了5%，在2020年上涨了约41%。随着疫情加大了在家办公需求，企业纷纷加大了对云计算的投入，这无疑提振了微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>及谷歌的云计算业务。</p>\n<p>在与投资者举行的电话会议上，微软高管表示，他们预计该公司“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>云”业务第三季度收入将达到148.3亿美元，而华尔街的预期为141.2亿美元。微软表示，其“智能云”部门的收入增长了23%，达到146亿美元，其中Azure增长了50%。根据Visible Alpha的共识数据，分析师此前预计Azure的增长将达到41.4%，上一季度Azure增长了48%。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，1月27日本周三，智能手机巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司预计将发布其第一季度财报，分析师预期该公司营收将超过1000亿美元，主要受益于其新iPhone 12系列的强劲早期表现，以及受远程办公和网络授课提振的Macs和iPad需求。</p>\n<p>在疫情期间，苹果公司的Mac和iPad销量强劲，随着在家办公及网络授课的兴起，这种势头预计有望持续到第一财季。苹果于去年年底推出了新的iPad，并推出了首批采用自己定制芯片的计算机。</p>\n<p>分析师预计苹果服务类别的业绩也将达到创纪录水平，尽管其中某些领域可能也不会保持强劲增长。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师凯蒂·胡伯蒂（Katy Huberty）表示，鉴于发生疫情危机，苹果在将销售转移到其在线商店方面做得很好，但是它“过分依赖店内客户购买”来推动其AppleCare保险产品的销售。</p>\n<p><b>华尔街警告市场二月抛售风险</b></p>\n<p>尽管财报季提振了市场情绪，但华尔街已开始担忧二月市场回调风险。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>的技术分析师斯蒂芬·苏特迈尔（Stephen Suttmeier）周一发表了题为“进入2月的修正风险增加”的报告，指出随着1月即将结束，2月的季节性风险可能表明，现在该“采取获利了结或其他防御措施，因为几个市场指数都达到了2020年大选突破后所预期的上升点。”</p>\n<p>Suttmeier表示，标准普尔500指数从美国总统大选之前构筑的看涨三角形探测了向上目标3,830-3,885，罗素2000指数已达到其第一个上升目标，纳斯达克100则测试了13,500-13,630目标。</p>\n<p>Suttmeier将标普500指数的每月季节性数据追溯到1928年，并指出2月份对于投资者来说是一个危险的月份，尤其是考虑到美联储创造的史诗泡沫中所有乐观情绪和投机行为。其他指标方面， 5天和25天CBOE总看跌/看涨比率都处于逆势看跌超买水平。这位分析师说：“我们认为这提示了一种风险，可能会中断下个月的股市反弹。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8cd2540b43a5402362f7b402ec29d5\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>除了美国银行之外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>首席经济学家几天前在一篇题为“ What Gould Go Error Wrong ”的文章中概述了投资者过度乐观的想法，认为尽管股市在2021年反弹，但其他下行风险依然存在：包括不确定消费者如何应对挥之不去的风险，新病毒突变如何影响病毒传播以及疫苗效力的不确定性。</p>\n<p>由于下行风险越来越大，RIA首席投资策略师兰斯·罗伯茨（Lance Roberts）本周一 表示，已开始出售股票并增加现金持有，以应对未来市场可能出现的回调。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报“亮眼”也没用？华尔街警告2月市场全面回调</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报“亮眼”也没用？华尔街警告2月市场全面回调\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-01-27 10:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>隔夜<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>发布财报显示，云计算服务在疫情疫情期间强劲增长。本周大型科技巨头陆续公布财报，但华尔街却开始看向二月市场回调风险。</p>\n<p><b>大型科技公司有望收获不俗业绩</b></p>\n<p>在2020年多数时间领涨市场以后，科技股在去年年底涨势停顿，而周期股则受经济复苏预期支撑，获得强劲涨幅。</p>\n<p>不过随着财报季的到来，美股板块轮动又有“回头”迹象。Horizon Investment Services首席执行官Chuck Carlson表示，标普500成分股企业将有约四分之一再本周公布财报，可能有助于决定增长股重新崛起的势头能否持续下去，对近期价值股与周期股的涨势构成潜在威胁。“这可能会成为财报季的主轴：过去八、九周美股已经发生了板块轮动，而企业获利对这波轮动的可持续性将具有什么样的意义。”</p>\n<p>而本周公布财报的大型科技企业也确实获得不俗成绩。微软公司周二报告说，其Azure云计算服务增长了50%，因为疫情使该软件制造商在家庭工作和学习方面的投资受益。该公司的股票在盘后交易中上涨了5%，在2020年上涨了约41%。随着疫情加大了在家办公需求，企业纷纷加大了对云计算的投入，这无疑提振了微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>及谷歌的云计算业务。</p>\n<p>在与投资者举行的电话会议上，微软高管表示，他们预计该公司“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>云”业务第三季度收入将达到148.3亿美元，而华尔街的预期为141.2亿美元。微软表示，其“智能云”部门的收入增长了23%，达到146亿美元，其中Azure增长了50%。根据Visible Alpha的共识数据，分析师此前预计Azure的增长将达到41.4%，上一季度Azure增长了48%。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，1月27日本周三，智能手机巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司预计将发布其第一季度财报，分析师预期该公司营收将超过1000亿美元，主要受益于其新iPhone 12系列的强劲早期表现，以及受远程办公和网络授课提振的Macs和iPad需求。</p>\n<p>在疫情期间，苹果公司的Mac和iPad销量强劲，随着在家办公及网络授课的兴起，这种势头预计有望持续到第一财季。苹果于去年年底推出了新的iPad，并推出了首批采用自己定制芯片的计算机。</p>\n<p>分析师预计苹果服务类别的业绩也将达到创纪录水平，尽管其中某些领域可能也不会保持强劲增长。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师凯蒂·胡伯蒂（Katy Huberty）表示，鉴于发生疫情危机，苹果在将销售转移到其在线商店方面做得很好，但是它“过分依赖店内客户购买”来推动其AppleCare保险产品的销售。</p>\n<p><b>华尔街警告市场二月抛售风险</b></p>\n<p>尽管财报季提振了市场情绪，但华尔街已开始担忧二月市场回调风险。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>的技术分析师斯蒂芬·苏特迈尔（Stephen Suttmeier）周一发表了题为“进入2月的修正风险增加”的报告，指出随着1月即将结束，2月的季节性风险可能表明，现在该“采取获利了结或其他防御措施，因为几个市场指数都达到了2020年大选突破后所预期的上升点。”</p>\n<p>Suttmeier表示，标准普尔500指数从美国总统大选之前构筑的看涨三角形探测了向上目标3,830-3,885，罗素2000指数已达到其第一个上升目标，纳斯达克100则测试了13,500-13,630目标。</p>\n<p>Suttmeier将标普500指数的每月季节性数据追溯到1928年，并指出2月份对于投资者来说是一个危险的月份，尤其是考虑到美联储创造的史诗泡沫中所有乐观情绪和投机行为。其他指标方面， 5天和25天CBOE总看跌/看涨比率都处于逆势看跌超买水平。这位分析师说：“我们认为这提示了一种风险，可能会中断下个月的股市反弹。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8cd2540b43a5402362f7b402ec29d5\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>除了美国银行之外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>首席经济学家几天前在一篇题为“ What Gould Go Error Wrong ”的文章中概述了投资者过度乐观的想法，认为尽管股市在2021年反弹，但其他下行风险依然存在：包括不确定消费者如何应对挥之不去的风险，新病毒突变如何影响病毒传播以及疫苗效力的不确定性。</p>\n<p>由于下行风险越来越大，RIA首席投资策略师兰斯·罗伯茨（Lance Roberts）本周一 表示，已开始出售股票并增加现金持有，以应对未来市场可能出现的回调。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3b5e72649367d0aafd9bcbbca9bcd1","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","AMD":"美国超微公司"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170092741","content_text":"隔夜微软发布财报显示，云计算服务在疫情疫情期间强劲增长。本周大型科技巨头陆续公布财报，但华尔街却开始看向二月市场回调风险。\n大型科技公司有望收获不俗业绩\n在2020年多数时间领涨市场以后，科技股在去年年底涨势停顿，而周期股则受经济复苏预期支撑，获得强劲涨幅。\n不过随着财报季的到来，美股板块轮动又有“回头”迹象。Horizon Investment Services首席执行官Chuck Carlson表示，标普500成分股企业将有约四分之一再本周公布财报，可能有助于决定增长股重新崛起的势头能否持续下去，对近期价值股与周期股的涨势构成潜在威胁。“这可能会成为财报季的主轴：过去八、九周美股已经发生了板块轮动，而企业获利对这波轮动的可持续性将具有什么样的意义。”\n而本周公布财报的大型科技企业也确实获得不俗成绩。微软公司周二报告说，其Azure云计算服务增长了50%，因为疫情使该软件制造商在家庭工作和学习方面的投资受益。该公司的股票在盘后交易中上涨了5%，在2020年上涨了约41%。随着疫情加大了在家办公需求，企业纷纷加大了对云计算的投入，这无疑提振了微软、亚马逊及谷歌的云计算业务。\n在与投资者举行的电话会议上，微软高管表示，他们预计该公司“智能云”业务第三季度收入将达到148.3亿美元，而华尔街的预期为141.2亿美元。微软表示，其“智能云”部门的收入增长了23%，达到146亿美元，其中Azure增长了50%。根据Visible Alpha的共识数据，分析师此前预计Azure的增长将达到41.4%，上一季度Azure增长了48%。\n值得注意的是，1月27日本周三，智能手机巨头苹果公司预计将发布其第一季度财报，分析师预期该公司营收将超过1000亿美元，主要受益于其新iPhone 12系列的强劲早期表现，以及受远程办公和网络授课提振的Macs和iPad需求。\n在疫情期间，苹果公司的Mac和iPad销量强劲，随着在家办公及网络授课的兴起，这种势头预计有望持续到第一财季。苹果于去年年底推出了新的iPad，并推出了首批采用自己定制芯片的计算机。\n分析师预计苹果服务类别的业绩也将达到创纪录水平，尽管其中某些领域可能也不会保持强劲增长。摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·胡伯蒂（Katy Huberty）表示，鉴于发生疫情危机，苹果在将销售转移到其在线商店方面做得很好，但是它“过分依赖店内客户购买”来推动其AppleCare保险产品的销售。\n华尔街警告市场二月抛售风险\n尽管财报季提振了市场情绪，但华尔街已开始担忧二月市场回调风险。美国银行的技术分析师斯蒂芬·苏特迈尔（Stephen Suttmeier）周一发表了题为“进入2月的修正风险增加”的报告，指出随着1月即将结束，2月的季节性风险可能表明，现在该“采取获利了结或其他防御措施，因为几个市场指数都达到了2020年大选突破后所预期的上升点。”\nSuttmeier表示，标准普尔500指数从美国总统大选之前构筑的看涨三角形探测了向上目标3,830-3,885，罗素2000指数已达到其第一个上升目标，纳斯达克100则测试了13,500-13,630目标。\nSuttmeier将标普500指数的每月季节性数据追溯到1928年，并指出2月份对于投资者来说是一个危险的月份，尤其是考虑到美联储创造的史诗泡沫中所有乐观情绪和投机行为。其他指标方面， 5天和25天CBOE总看跌/看涨比率都处于逆势看跌超买水平。这位分析师说：“我们认为这提示了一种风险，可能会中断下个月的股市反弹。”\n\n除了美国银行之外，高盛首席经济学家几天前在一篇题为“ What Gould Go Error Wrong ”的文章中概述了投资者过度乐观的想法，认为尽管股市在2021年反弹，但其他下行风险依然存在：包括不确定消费者如何应对挥之不去的风险，新病毒突变如何影响病毒传播以及疫苗效力的不确定性。\n由于下行风险越来越大，RIA首席投资策略师兰斯·罗伯茨（Lance Roberts）本周一 表示，已开始出售股票并增加现金持有，以应对未来市场可能出现的回调。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"AMD":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319307250,"gmtCreate":1611511582470,"gmtModify":1703750646086,"author":{"id":"3574323863938799","authorId":"3574323863938799","name":"王大发啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df07797fc6ce93bcd376b4bc705e5fc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574323863938799","idStr":"3574323863938799"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"买龙头就对了","listText":"买龙头就对了","text":"买龙头就对了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319307250","repostId":"1126642649","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}