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Jwl

Jwl

Nibble is hungry

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2021-06-24

High risk high returns

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2021-06-24

Byd all the way

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2021-06-23

Cyclical

EV stocks fell in morning trading. Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌。中国电动汽车股在近期上涨和计划加息后已完全定价</blockquote>

2021-06-22

Onwards

2021-06-21

Watch this space?

2021-06-17

With such shareholder valuation, won’t it give themgmt more war chest to pursue greater initiatives?

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2021-05-03

It can only go uppp

Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>

2021-04-30

One step at a time

2021-04-25

Exciting week as always- Please like!

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2021-04-23

This made it to tiger !

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2021-04-09

Watch inflation

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2021-04-08

Good stuff

NIO and Other Chinese EV Stocks Are Getting Crushed. Tesla’s Not Doing So Hot Either.<blockquote>蔚来和其他中国电动汽车股票正在遭受重创。特斯拉也没那么热。</blockquote>

2021-04-07

Please like !

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2021-04-06

Please like

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2021-04-06

Every month we hear something like this

Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>

2021-04-05

Like please

How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>

2021-04-01

Like and share

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2021-03-31

New rotation

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2021-03-30

BP - we will never know the works behind this, could be a close door manipulation / big contraction on oil demand

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2021-03-30

Danger

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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624371721,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143759096?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 22:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks fell in morning trading. Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌。中国电动汽车股在近期上涨和计划加息后已完全定价</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143759096","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 22) EV stocks fell in morning trading. Tesla fell 0.33%, XPeng fell over 5%, NIO fell over 3%,","content":"<p>(June 22)&nbsp;EV stocks fell in morning trading.&nbsp;Tesla fell 0.33%, XPeng fell over 5%, NIO fell over 3%,&nbsp;LI&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;2%.</p><p><blockquote>（6月22日）EV股早盘走低，特斯拉跌0.33%，小鹏跌超5%，蔚来跌超3%，理想跌约2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a423484cc524b2f71e91b83e759455a9\" tg-width=\"289\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Li Auto, Nio, Xpeng: Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes,</b>&nbsp;<b>According&nbsp;To&nbsp;Forbes.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>理想汽车、蔚来、小鹏汽车：中国电动汽车股票在近期上涨、计划加息后已完全定价，</b> <b>据福布斯报道。</b></blockquote></p><p> The stocks of Chinese EV players have surged over the last month, largely reversing the effects of the sell-off seen earlier this year.Nio stock(NYSE: NIO) has rallied by almost 38% over the last month, Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) gained 45%, and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) surged by almost 58%. Now although the three companies posted mixed delivery figures for the month of May, with Nio and Li Auto both posting declines in their deliveries versus April, and Xpeng growing sales marginally, the sales numbers likely weren’t as bad as expected, considering the semiconductor shortage that has roiled the auto industry. In contrast, major auto players such as GM and Ford had to temporarily idle or scale back production at several plants.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车企业的股价在上个月飙升，很大程度上扭转了今年早些时候抛售的影响。蔚来汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）的股价在上个月上涨了近38%，理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）上涨45%，小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）飙升近58%。现在，尽管这三家公司公布的5月份交付数据好坏参半，蔚来和理想汽车的交付量均较4月份有所下降，而小鹏汽车的销量略有增长，但考虑到半导体的情况，销售数据可能并不像预期的那么糟糕。扰乱汽车行业的短缺。相比之下，通用汽车和福特等主要汽车制造商不得不暂时闲置或缩减几家工厂的生产。</blockquote></p><p> The outlook provided by the three companies was also stronger than expected, giving investors confidence that the worst of the semiconductor shortage is likely over. Li Auto has guided to 14,500 to 15,500 deliveries for the second quarter, a sequential increase of 22% on the upper end. The company says that it is optimistic that actual numbers will exceed guidance, given that it is seeing stronger than expected orders for the upgraded version of its Li One SUV. Nio also reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver a record 8,200 vehicles in June.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司提供的前景也强于预期，让投资者相信半导体短缺最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。理想汽车预计第二季度交付量为14,500至15,500辆，环比增长22%。该公司表示，鉴于升级版Li One SUV的订单强于预期，因此对实际数字将超过指引持乐观态度。蔚来还重申了2021年Q2交付量为21,000至22,000辆汽车的指引，这意味着它可能在6月份交付创纪录的8,200辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Now are the stocks a buy at current levels? While the growth outlook is certainly strong, the stocks don’t exactly appear cheap at current valuations. Nio trades at 14x forward revenue, while Li Auto trades at 9x, and Xpeng trades at about 16x. Near-term threats to EV valuations include higher inflation and recent commentary by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is now apparently looking at two interest rate hikes in 2023, instead of 2024. This could put pressure on high-multiple, high-growth stocks, including EV names. In our analysis&nbsp;<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>&nbsp;we compare the financial performance and valuations of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.</p><p><blockquote>现在这些股票在当前水平值得买入吗？虽然增长前景肯定强劲，但以目前的估值来看，这些股票看起来并不便宜。蔚来的预期收入为14倍，理想汽车的预期收入为9倍，小鹏汽车的预期收入约为16倍。电动汽车估值面临的近期威胁包括通胀上升和美联储最近的评论，美联储目前显然正在考虑在2023年而不是2024年加息两次。这可能会给包括电动汽车在内的高市盈率、高增长股票带来压力。根据我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票比较如何？</b>我们比较了在美国上市的主要中国电动汽车公司的财务表现和估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[6/2/2021] Is The Worst Of The Semiconductor Crunch Over For Chinese EVs?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[6/2/2021]中国电动汽车半导体紧缩最糟糕的时期结束了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric vehicle majorsNio (NYSE: NIO)and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) provided mixed delivery figures for the month of May, as they continued to be impacted by the current shortage of semiconductors. While Nio delivered a total of 6,711 vehicles in May, down 5.5% from April, Xpeng was able to grow deliveries by about 10% over the last month to 5,686 units, although the number is below peak monthly sales of 6,015 vehicles witnessed in January. Although both companies reported robust year-over-year growth numbers (2x to 6x), the sequential figures are more closely tracked for fast-growing companies.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车巨头蔚来汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）提供的5月份交付数据好坏参半，因为它们继续受到当前半导体短缺的影响。虽然蔚来5月份共交付6,711辆汽车，较4月份下降5.5%，但小鹏汽车上个月的交付量增长了约10%，达到5,686辆，尽管这一数字低于1月份6,015辆的月销量峰值。尽管两家公司都报告了强劲的同比增长数据（2倍至6倍），但对于快速增长的公司来说，环比数据受到更密切的跟踪。</blockquote></p><p> However, things are probably going to get better from here. Nio, for instance, reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver as many as 8,200 vehicles in June, a monthly record. This is likely an indicator that the global automotive semiconductor shortage is easing off, and also a sign that Nio is holding its own in the Chinese EV market, despite mounting competition. Nio stock rallied by almost 10% in Tuesday’s trading, while Xpeng’s stock was up by about 8% following the report.</p><p><blockquote>然而，事情可能会从这里变得更好。例如，蔚来重申了2021年第二季度21,000至22,000辆汽车的交付指引，这意味着它可能在6月份交付多达8,200辆汽车，创下月度纪录。这可能表明全球汽车半导体短缺正在缓解，也表明尽管竞争日益激烈，蔚来仍在中国电动汽车市场保持着自己的地位。蔚来股价在周二交易中上涨了近10%，而小鹏汽车的股价在报告发布后上涨了约8%。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the recent rally, the stocks might still be worth considering at current levels. Nio stock remains down by about 20% year-to-date while Xpeng is down by about 22%. See our analysis on&nbsp;<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>for an overview of the financial and valuation metrics of the three U.S. listed Chinese EV players.</p><p><blockquote>尽管最近有所上涨，但在目前的水平上，这些股票可能仍然值得考虑。蔚来股价今年迄今仍下跌约20%，而小鹏汽车则下跌约22%。请参阅我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票比较如何？</b>了解三家在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司的财务和估值指标概览。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[5/21/2021] How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[5/21/2021]中国电动汽车股票相比如何？</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. listed Chinese EV players Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) have underperformed this year, with their stocks down by roughly 30% each, since early January. So how do these stocks compare post the correction? While Nio and Xpeng remain pricier compared to Li Auto, they probably justify their higher valuation for a couple of reasons. Here is a bit more about these companies.</p><p><blockquote>在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）、小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）和理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）今年表现不佳，自1月初以来，其股价均下跌了约30%。那么这些股票在调整后的比较如何呢？虽然与理想汽车相比，蔚来和小鹏汽车的价格仍然较高，但它们的较高估值可能有几个原因。这里有更多关于这些公司的信息。</blockquote></p><p> Our analysis&nbsp;<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>&nbsp;compares the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.</p><p><blockquote>我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票比较如何？</b>比较了在美国上市的主要中国电动汽车公司的财务表现和估值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nio remains the most richly valued of the three companies, trading at about 10.5x forward revenue. Revenues are likely to grow by over 110% this year, per consensus estimates. Longer-term growth is also likely to remain strong, given the company’s wide product portfolio (it already has three models on the market), its unique innovations such as battery swapping, its global expansion plans, and investments into autonomous driving. Nio brand also has a lot more buzz, with the company viewed as the most direct rival to Tesla in China. Gross margins stood at 19.5% in Q1 2021, up from a negative 12% a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来仍然是这三家公司中估值最高的公司，其交易价格约为预期收入的10.5倍。根据普遍预测，今年收入可能增长110%以上。鉴于该公司广泛的产品组合（市场上已经有三款车型）、电池更换等独特创新、全球扩张计划以及对自动驾驶的投资，长期增长也可能保持强劲。蔚来品牌也受到更多关注，该公司被视为特斯拉在华最直接的竞争对手。2021年第一季度的毛利率为19.5%，高于一年前的负12%。</blockquote></p><p> Xpeng trades at about 10x projected 2021 revenues. Sales growth is projected to be the strongest among the three companies, rising by over 150% this year, per consensus estimates. Besides its higher projected growth, investors have been assigning a premium to the company due to its progress in the autonomous driving space. Xpeng currently sells the G3 SUV and the P7 sedan and its new P5 compact sedan is likely to hit the roads later this year. Although Xpeng’s gross margins have improved, rising to about 11% over Q1, versus negative levels a year ago, they are still below Nio’s margins.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车的交易价格约为2021年预计收入的10倍。据普遍估计，今年的销售额增长预计将是三家公司中最强劲的，将增长超过150%。除了较高的预期增长外，由于该公司在自动驾驶领域的进展，投资者一直对该公司给予溢价。小鹏汽车目前销售G3 SUV和P7轿车，其新款P5紧凑型轿车可能会在今年晚些时候上路。尽管小鹏汽车的毛利率有所改善，较第一季度升至11%左右，而一年前为负值，但仍低于蔚来的毛利率。</blockquote></p><p> Li Auto trades at just 6x projected 2021 revenues, the lowest of the three companies. Revenues are likely to roughly double this year, with gross margins standing at 17.5% as of Q4 2020 (the company has yet to report Q1 results). The lower valuation is likely due to the company’s focus on a single product - the Li Xiang ONE, an electric SUV that also has a small gasoline engine and also due to the fact that Li Auto is behind rivals in terms of autonomous driving tech.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车的交易价格仅为2021年预计收入的6倍，是三家公司中最低的。今年的收入可能会大约翻一番，截至2020年第四季度，毛利率为17.5%（该公司尚未报告第一季度业绩）。估值较低可能是由于该公司专注于单一产品——李想ONE，这是一款同样配备小型汽油发动机的电动SUV，也是由于理想汽车在自动驾驶技术方面落后于竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[10/30/2020] How Do Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto Compare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[10/30/2020]蔚来、小鹏、理想汽车对比如何</b></blockquote></p><p> The Chinese electric vehicle space is booming, with China-based manufacturers accounting for over 50% of global EV deliveries. Demand for EVs in China is likely to remain robust as the Chinese government wants about 25% of all new cars sold in the country to be electric by 2025, up from roughly 5% at present.[1]While Tesla is a leader in the Chinese luxury EV market driven by production at its new Shanghai facility, Nio, Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) - three relatively young U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players, have also been gaining traction. In our analysis<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>we compare the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players. Parts of the analysis are summarized below.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车领域正在蓬勃发展，中国制造商占全球电动汽车交付量的50%以上。中国对电动汽车的需求可能会保持强劲，因为中国政府希望到2025年，中国销售的所有新车中约有25%是电动汽车，高于目前的约5%。[1]虽然特斯拉在上海新工厂的生产推动下是中国豪华电动汽车市场的领导者，但蔚来、小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）和理想汽车（纳斯达克代码：LI）这三家相对年轻的在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司也获得了关注。根据我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票比较如何？</b>我们比较了在美国上市的主要中国电动汽车公司的财务表现和估值。部分分析总结如下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview Of Nio, Li Auto &amp; Xpeng’s Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来、理想汽车和小鹏汽车业务概述</b></blockquote></p><p> Nio, which was founded in 2014, currently offers three premium electric SUVs, ES8, ES6, and EC6, which are priced starting at about $50k. The company is working on developing self-driving technology and also offers other unique innovations such as Battery as a Service (BaaS) - which allows customers to subscribe for car batteries, rather than paying for them upfront. While the company has scaled up production, it hasn’t come without challenges, as it recalled about 5,000 vehicles last year after reports of multiple fires.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，目前提供ES8、ES6和EC6三款高端电动SUV，起价约为5万美元。该公司正在致力于开发自动驾驶技术，并提供其他独特的创新，例如电池即服务（BaaS）——允许客户订阅汽车电池，而不是预先付费。尽管该公司扩大了生产规模，但也并非没有挑战，去年在接到多起火灾报告后，该公司召回了约5,000辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Li Auto sells Extended-Range Electric Vehicles, which are essentially EVs that also have a small gasoline engine that can generate additional electric power for the battery. This reduces the need for EV-charging infrastructure, which is currently limited in China. The company’s hybrid strategy appears to be paying off - with its Li ONE SUV, which is priced at about $46,000 - ranking as the top-selling SUV in the new energy vehicle segment in China in September 2020. The new energy segment includes fuel cell, electric, and plug-in hybrid vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车销售增程电动汽车，本质上是电动汽车，也有一个小型汽油发动机，可以为电池产生额外的电力。这减少了对电动汽车充电基础设施的需求，而电动汽车充电基础设施目前在中国是有限的。该公司的混合动力战略似乎正在取得成效——其售价约为46,000美元的Li ONE SUV在2020年9月成为中国新能源汽车领域最畅销的SUV。新能源领域包括燃料电池、电动和插电式混合动力汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Xpeng produces and sells premium electric vehicles including the G3 SUV and the P7 four-door sedan, which are roughly positioned as rivals to Tesla’s Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan, although they are more affordable, with the basic version of the G3 starting at about $22,000 post subsidies. The G3 SUV was among the top 3 Electric SUVs in terms of sales in China in 2019. While the company began production in late 2018, initially via a deal with an established automaker, it has started production at its own factory in the Guangdong province.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车生产和销售包括G3 SUV和P7四门轿车在内的高端电动汽车，这些汽车大致定位为特斯拉Model Y SUV和Model 3轿车的竞争对手，尽管它们的价格更实惠，G3的基本版起售价约为22,000美元补贴后。G3 SUV是2019年中国电动SUV销量前三名之一。虽然该公司于2018年底开始生产，最初是通过与一家老牌汽车制造商达成协议，但它已在广东省自己的工厂开始生产。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Have The Deliveries, Revenues &amp; Margins Trended</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交付量、收入和利润率的趋势如何</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nio delivered about 21k vehicles in 2019, up from about 11k vehicles in 2018. This compares to Xpeng which delivered about 13k vehicles in 2019 and Li Auto which delivered about 1k vehicles, considering that it began production only late last year. While Nio’s deliveries this year could approach about 40k units, Li Auto and Xpeng are likely to deliver around 25k vehicles with Li Auto seeing the highest growth. Over 2019, Nio’s Revenues stood at $1.1 billion, compared to about $40 million for Li Auto and $330 million for Xpeng. Nio’s Revenues are likely to grow 95% this year, while Xpeng’s Revenues are likely to grow by about 120%. All three companies remain deeply lossmaking as costs related to R&amp;D and SG&amp;A remain high relative to Revenues. Nio’s Net Margins stood at -195% in 2019, Li Auto’s margins stood at about -860% while Xpeng’s margins stood at -160%. However, margins are likely to improve sharply in 2020, as volumes pick up.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来2019年交付了约2.1万辆汽车，高于2018年的约1.1万辆。相比之下，小鹏汽车在2019年交付了约1.3万辆汽车，理想汽车汽车在去年年底才开始生产，交付了约1000辆汽车。虽然蔚来今年的交付量可能接近4万辆左右，但理想汽车和小鹏汽车可能会交付约2.5万辆汽车，其中理想汽车的增幅最高。2019年，蔚来的收入为11亿美元，而理想汽车约为4000万美元，小鹏汽车约为3.3亿美元。蔚来今年的收入可能增长95%，而小鹏汽车的收入可能增长约120%。由于与研发和SG&amp;A相关的成本相对于收入仍然很高，这三家公司仍然严重亏损。2019年，蔚来的净利润率为-195%，理想汽车的利润率约为-860%，而小鹏汽车的利润率为-160%。然而，随着销量的回升，利润率可能会在2020年大幅提高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Nio’s Market Cap stood at about $37 billion as of October 28, 2020, with its stock price rising by about 7x year-to-date due to surging investor interest in EV stocks. Li Auto and Xpeng, which were both listed in the U.S. around August as they looked to capitalize on surging valuations, have a market cap of about $15 billion and $14 billion, respectively. On a relative basis, Nio trades at about 15x projected 2020 Revenues, Li Auto trades at about 12x, while Xpeng trades at about 20x.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年10月28日，蔚来的市值约为370亿美元，由于投资者对电动汽车股票的兴趣激增，其股价今年迄今上涨了约7倍。理想汽车和小鹏汽车均于8月左右在美国上市，希望利用估值飙升的机会，市值分别约为150亿美元和140亿美元。相对而言，蔚来的交易价格约为2020年预计收入的15倍，理想汽车的交易价格约为12倍，而小鹏汽车的交易价格约为20倍。</blockquote></p><p> While valuations are certainly high, investors are likely betting that these companies will continue to grow in the domestic market, while eventually playing a larger role in the global EV space leveraging China’s relatively low-cost manufacturing, and the country’s ecosystem of battery and auto parts suppliers. Of the three companies, Nio might be the safer bet, considering its slightly longer track record, higher Revenues, and investments in technology such as battery swaps and self-driving. Li Auto also looks attractive considering its rapid growth - driven by the uptake of its hybrid powertrains - and relatively attractive valuation of about 12x 2020 Revenues.</p><p><blockquote>虽然估值肯定很高，但投资者可能押注这些公司将继续在国内市场增长，同时最终利用中国相对低成本的制造业以及该国的电池和汽车生态系统在全球电动汽车领域发挥更大的作用零部件供应商。在这三家公司中，考虑到蔚来稍长的业绩记录、较高的收入以及对电池更换和自动驾驶等技术的投资，它可能是更安全的选择。考虑到其快速增长（由混合动力系统的采用推动）以及相对有吸引力的估值（约为2020年收入的12倍），理想汽车看起来也很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Electric vehicles are the future of transportation, but picking the right EV stocks can be tricky. Investing in<b>Electric Vehicle Component Supplier Stocks</b>can be a good alternative to play the growth in the EV market.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车是交通的未来，但选择正确的电动汽车股票可能很棘手。投资于<b>电动汽车零部件供应商库存</b>可以成为电动汽车市场增长的一个很好的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks fell in morning trading. Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌。中国电动汽车股在近期上涨和计划加息后已完全定价</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks fell in morning trading. Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌。中国电动汽车股在近期上涨和计划加息后已完全定价</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 22:22</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 22)&nbsp;EV stocks fell in morning trading.&nbsp;Tesla fell 0.33%, XPeng fell over 5%, NIO fell over 3%,&nbsp;LI&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;2%.</p><p><blockquote>（6月22日）EV股早盘走低，特斯拉跌0.33%，小鹏跌超5%，蔚来跌超3%，理想跌约2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a423484cc524b2f71e91b83e759455a9\" tg-width=\"289\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Li Auto, Nio, Xpeng: Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes,</b>&nbsp;<b>According&nbsp;To&nbsp;Forbes.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>理想汽车、蔚来、小鹏汽车：中国电动汽车股票在近期上涨、计划加息后已完全定价，</b> <b>据福布斯报道。</b></blockquote></p><p> The stocks of Chinese EV players have surged over the last month, largely reversing the effects of the sell-off seen earlier this year.Nio stock(NYSE: NIO) has rallied by almost 38% over the last month, Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) gained 45%, and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) surged by almost 58%. Now although the three companies posted mixed delivery figures for the month of May, with Nio and Li Auto both posting declines in their deliveries versus April, and Xpeng growing sales marginally, the sales numbers likely weren’t as bad as expected, considering the semiconductor shortage that has roiled the auto industry. In contrast, major auto players such as GM and Ford had to temporarily idle or scale back production at several plants.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车企业的股价在上个月飙升，很大程度上扭转了今年早些时候抛售的影响。蔚来汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）的股价在上个月上涨了近38%，理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）上涨45%，小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）飙升近58%。现在，尽管这三家公司公布的5月份交付数据好坏参半，蔚来和理想汽车的交付量均较4月份有所下降，而小鹏汽车的销量略有增长，但考虑到半导体的情况，销售数据可能并不像预期的那么糟糕。扰乱汽车行业的短缺。相比之下，通用汽车和福特等主要汽车制造商不得不暂时闲置或缩减几家工厂的生产。</blockquote></p><p> The outlook provided by the three companies was also stronger than expected, giving investors confidence that the worst of the semiconductor shortage is likely over. Li Auto has guided to 14,500 to 15,500 deliveries for the second quarter, a sequential increase of 22% on the upper end. The company says that it is optimistic that actual numbers will exceed guidance, given that it is seeing stronger than expected orders for the upgraded version of its Li One SUV. Nio also reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver a record 8,200 vehicles in June.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司提供的前景也强于预期，让投资者相信半导体短缺最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。理想汽车预计第二季度交付量为14,500至15,500辆，环比增长22%。该公司表示，鉴于升级版Li One SUV的订单强于预期，因此对实际数字将超过指引持乐观态度。蔚来还重申了2021年Q2交付量为21,000至22,000辆汽车的指引，这意味着它可能在6月份交付创纪录的8,200辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Now are the stocks a buy at current levels? While the growth outlook is certainly strong, the stocks don’t exactly appear cheap at current valuations. Nio trades at 14x forward revenue, while Li Auto trades at 9x, and Xpeng trades at about 16x. Near-term threats to EV valuations include higher inflation and recent commentary by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is now apparently looking at two interest rate hikes in 2023, instead of 2024. This could put pressure on high-multiple, high-growth stocks, including EV names. In our analysis&nbsp;<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>&nbsp;we compare the financial performance and valuations of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.</p><p><blockquote>现在这些股票在当前水平值得买入吗？虽然增长前景肯定强劲，但以目前的估值来看，这些股票看起来并不便宜。蔚来的预期收入为14倍，理想汽车的预期收入为9倍，小鹏汽车的预期收入约为16倍。电动汽车估值面临的近期威胁包括通胀上升和美联储最近的评论，美联储目前显然正在考虑在2023年而不是2024年加息两次。这可能会给包括电动汽车在内的高市盈率、高增长股票带来压力。根据我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票比较如何？</b>我们比较了在美国上市的主要中国电动汽车公司的财务表现和估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[6/2/2021] Is The Worst Of The Semiconductor Crunch Over For Chinese EVs?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[6/2/2021]中国电动汽车半导体紧缩最糟糕的时期结束了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric vehicle majorsNio (NYSE: NIO)and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) provided mixed delivery figures for the month of May, as they continued to be impacted by the current shortage of semiconductors. While Nio delivered a total of 6,711 vehicles in May, down 5.5% from April, Xpeng was able to grow deliveries by about 10% over the last month to 5,686 units, although the number is below peak monthly sales of 6,015 vehicles witnessed in January. Although both companies reported robust year-over-year growth numbers (2x to 6x), the sequential figures are more closely tracked for fast-growing companies.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车巨头蔚来汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）提供的5月份交付数据好坏参半，因为它们继续受到当前半导体短缺的影响。虽然蔚来5月份共交付6,711辆汽车，较4月份下降5.5%，但小鹏汽车上个月的交付量增长了约10%，达到5,686辆，尽管这一数字低于1月份6,015辆的月销量峰值。尽管两家公司都报告了强劲的同比增长数据（2倍至6倍），但对于快速增长的公司来说，环比数据受到更密切的跟踪。</blockquote></p><p> However, things are probably going to get better from here. Nio, for instance, reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver as many as 8,200 vehicles in June, a monthly record. This is likely an indicator that the global automotive semiconductor shortage is easing off, and also a sign that Nio is holding its own in the Chinese EV market, despite mounting competition. Nio stock rallied by almost 10% in Tuesday’s trading, while Xpeng’s stock was up by about 8% following the report.</p><p><blockquote>然而，事情可能会从这里变得更好。例如，蔚来重申了2021年第二季度21,000至22,000辆汽车的交付指引，这意味着它可能在6月份交付多达8,200辆汽车，创下月度纪录。这可能表明全球汽车半导体短缺正在缓解，也表明尽管竞争日益激烈，蔚来仍在中国电动汽车市场保持着自己的地位。蔚来股价在周二交易中上涨了近10%，而小鹏汽车的股价在报告发布后上涨了约8%。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the recent rally, the stocks might still be worth considering at current levels. Nio stock remains down by about 20% year-to-date while Xpeng is down by about 22%. See our analysis on&nbsp;<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>for an overview of the financial and valuation metrics of the three U.S. listed Chinese EV players.</p><p><blockquote>尽管最近有所上涨，但在目前的水平上，这些股票可能仍然值得考虑。蔚来股价今年迄今仍下跌约20%，而小鹏汽车则下跌约22%。请参阅我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票比较如何？</b>了解三家在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司的财务和估值指标概览。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[5/21/2021] How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[5/21/2021]中国电动汽车股票相比如何？</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. listed Chinese EV players Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) have underperformed this year, with their stocks down by roughly 30% each, since early January. So how do these stocks compare post the correction? While Nio and Xpeng remain pricier compared to Li Auto, they probably justify their higher valuation for a couple of reasons. Here is a bit more about these companies.</p><p><blockquote>在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）、小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）和理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）今年表现不佳，自1月初以来，其股价均下跌了约30%。那么这些股票在调整后的比较如何呢？虽然与理想汽车相比，蔚来和小鹏汽车的价格仍然较高，但它们的较高估值可能有几个原因。这里有更多关于这些公司的信息。</blockquote></p><p> Our analysis&nbsp;<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>&nbsp;compares the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.</p><p><blockquote>我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票比较如何？</b>比较了在美国上市的主要中国电动汽车公司的财务表现和估值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nio remains the most richly valued of the three companies, trading at about 10.5x forward revenue. Revenues are likely to grow by over 110% this year, per consensus estimates. Longer-term growth is also likely to remain strong, given the company’s wide product portfolio (it already has three models on the market), its unique innovations such as battery swapping, its global expansion plans, and investments into autonomous driving. Nio brand also has a lot more buzz, with the company viewed as the most direct rival to Tesla in China. Gross margins stood at 19.5% in Q1 2021, up from a negative 12% a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来仍然是这三家公司中估值最高的公司，其交易价格约为预期收入的10.5倍。根据普遍预测，今年收入可能增长110%以上。鉴于该公司广泛的产品组合（市场上已经有三款车型）、电池更换等独特创新、全球扩张计划以及对自动驾驶的投资，长期增长也可能保持强劲。蔚来品牌也受到更多关注，该公司被视为特斯拉在华最直接的竞争对手。2021年第一季度的毛利率为19.5%，高于一年前的负12%。</blockquote></p><p> Xpeng trades at about 10x projected 2021 revenues. Sales growth is projected to be the strongest among the three companies, rising by over 150% this year, per consensus estimates. Besides its higher projected growth, investors have been assigning a premium to the company due to its progress in the autonomous driving space. Xpeng currently sells the G3 SUV and the P7 sedan and its new P5 compact sedan is likely to hit the roads later this year. Although Xpeng’s gross margins have improved, rising to about 11% over Q1, versus negative levels a year ago, they are still below Nio’s margins.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车的交易价格约为2021年预计收入的10倍。据普遍估计，今年的销售额增长预计将是三家公司中最强劲的，将增长超过150%。除了较高的预期增长外，由于该公司在自动驾驶领域的进展，投资者一直对该公司给予溢价。小鹏汽车目前销售G3 SUV和P7轿车，其新款P5紧凑型轿车可能会在今年晚些时候上路。尽管小鹏汽车的毛利率有所改善，较第一季度升至11%左右，而一年前为负值，但仍低于蔚来的毛利率。</blockquote></p><p> Li Auto trades at just 6x projected 2021 revenues, the lowest of the three companies. Revenues are likely to roughly double this year, with gross margins standing at 17.5% as of Q4 2020 (the company has yet to report Q1 results). The lower valuation is likely due to the company’s focus on a single product - the Li Xiang ONE, an electric SUV that also has a small gasoline engine and also due to the fact that Li Auto is behind rivals in terms of autonomous driving tech.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车的交易价格仅为2021年预计收入的6倍，是三家公司中最低的。今年的收入可能会大约翻一番，截至2020年第四季度，毛利率为17.5%（该公司尚未报告第一季度业绩）。估值较低可能是由于该公司专注于单一产品——李想ONE，这是一款同样配备小型汽油发动机的电动SUV，也是由于理想汽车在自动驾驶技术方面落后于竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[10/30/2020] How Do Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto Compare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[10/30/2020]蔚来、小鹏、理想汽车对比如何</b></blockquote></p><p> The Chinese electric vehicle space is booming, with China-based manufacturers accounting for over 50% of global EV deliveries. Demand for EVs in China is likely to remain robust as the Chinese government wants about 25% of all new cars sold in the country to be electric by 2025, up from roughly 5% at present.[1]While Tesla is a leader in the Chinese luxury EV market driven by production at its new Shanghai facility, Nio, Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) - three relatively young U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players, have also been gaining traction. In our analysis<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>we compare the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players. Parts of the analysis are summarized below.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车领域正在蓬勃发展，中国制造商占全球电动汽车交付量的50%以上。中国对电动汽车的需求可能会保持强劲，因为中国政府希望到2025年，中国销售的所有新车中约有25%是电动汽车，高于目前的约5%。[1]虽然特斯拉在上海新工厂的生产推动下是中国豪华电动汽车市场的领导者，但蔚来、小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）和理想汽车（纳斯达克代码：LI）这三家相对年轻的在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司也获得了关注。根据我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票比较如何？</b>我们比较了在美国上市的主要中国电动汽车公司的财务表现和估值。部分分析总结如下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview Of Nio, Li Auto &amp; Xpeng’s Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来、理想汽车和小鹏汽车业务概述</b></blockquote></p><p> Nio, which was founded in 2014, currently offers three premium electric SUVs, ES8, ES6, and EC6, which are priced starting at about $50k. The company is working on developing self-driving technology and also offers other unique innovations such as Battery as a Service (BaaS) - which allows customers to subscribe for car batteries, rather than paying for them upfront. While the company has scaled up production, it hasn’t come without challenges, as it recalled about 5,000 vehicles last year after reports of multiple fires.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，目前提供ES8、ES6和EC6三款高端电动SUV，起价约为5万美元。该公司正在致力于开发自动驾驶技术，并提供其他独特的创新，例如电池即服务（BaaS）——允许客户订阅汽车电池，而不是预先付费。尽管该公司扩大了生产规模，但也并非没有挑战，去年在接到多起火灾报告后，该公司召回了约5,000辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Li Auto sells Extended-Range Electric Vehicles, which are essentially EVs that also have a small gasoline engine that can generate additional electric power for the battery. This reduces the need for EV-charging infrastructure, which is currently limited in China. The company’s hybrid strategy appears to be paying off - with its Li ONE SUV, which is priced at about $46,000 - ranking as the top-selling SUV in the new energy vehicle segment in China in September 2020. The new energy segment includes fuel cell, electric, and plug-in hybrid vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车销售增程电动汽车，本质上是电动汽车，也有一个小型汽油发动机，可以为电池产生额外的电力。这减少了对电动汽车充电基础设施的需求，而电动汽车充电基础设施目前在中国是有限的。该公司的混合动力战略似乎正在取得成效——其售价约为46,000美元的Li ONE SUV在2020年9月成为中国新能源汽车领域最畅销的SUV。新能源领域包括燃料电池、电动和插电式混合动力汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Xpeng produces and sells premium electric vehicles including the G3 SUV and the P7 four-door sedan, which are roughly positioned as rivals to Tesla’s Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan, although they are more affordable, with the basic version of the G3 starting at about $22,000 post subsidies. The G3 SUV was among the top 3 Electric SUVs in terms of sales in China in 2019. While the company began production in late 2018, initially via a deal with an established automaker, it has started production at its own factory in the Guangdong province.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车生产和销售包括G3 SUV和P7四门轿车在内的高端电动汽车，这些汽车大致定位为特斯拉Model Y SUV和Model 3轿车的竞争对手，尽管它们的价格更实惠，G3的基本版起售价约为22,000美元补贴后。G3 SUV是2019年中国电动SUV销量前三名之一。虽然该公司于2018年底开始生产，最初是通过与一家老牌汽车制造商达成协议，但它已在广东省自己的工厂开始生产。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Have The Deliveries, Revenues &amp; Margins Trended</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交付量、收入和利润率的趋势如何</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nio delivered about 21k vehicles in 2019, up from about 11k vehicles in 2018. This compares to Xpeng which delivered about 13k vehicles in 2019 and Li Auto which delivered about 1k vehicles, considering that it began production only late last year. While Nio’s deliveries this year could approach about 40k units, Li Auto and Xpeng are likely to deliver around 25k vehicles with Li Auto seeing the highest growth. Over 2019, Nio’s Revenues stood at $1.1 billion, compared to about $40 million for Li Auto and $330 million for Xpeng. Nio’s Revenues are likely to grow 95% this year, while Xpeng’s Revenues are likely to grow by about 120%. All three companies remain deeply lossmaking as costs related to R&amp;D and SG&amp;A remain high relative to Revenues. Nio’s Net Margins stood at -195% in 2019, Li Auto’s margins stood at about -860% while Xpeng’s margins stood at -160%. However, margins are likely to improve sharply in 2020, as volumes pick up.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来2019年交付了约2.1万辆汽车，高于2018年的约1.1万辆。相比之下，小鹏汽车在2019年交付了约1.3万辆汽车，理想汽车汽车在去年年底才开始生产，交付了约1000辆汽车。虽然蔚来今年的交付量可能接近4万辆左右，但理想汽车和小鹏汽车可能会交付约2.5万辆汽车，其中理想汽车的增幅最高。2019年，蔚来的收入为11亿美元，而理想汽车约为4000万美元，小鹏汽车约为3.3亿美元。蔚来今年的收入可能增长95%，而小鹏汽车的收入可能增长约120%。由于与研发和SG&amp;A相关的成本相对于收入仍然很高，这三家公司仍然严重亏损。2019年，蔚来的净利润率为-195%，理想汽车的利润率约为-860%，而小鹏汽车的利润率为-160%。然而，随着销量的回升，利润率可能会在2020年大幅提高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Nio’s Market Cap stood at about $37 billion as of October 28, 2020, with its stock price rising by about 7x year-to-date due to surging investor interest in EV stocks. Li Auto and Xpeng, which were both listed in the U.S. around August as they looked to capitalize on surging valuations, have a market cap of about $15 billion and $14 billion, respectively. On a relative basis, Nio trades at about 15x projected 2020 Revenues, Li Auto trades at about 12x, while Xpeng trades at about 20x.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年10月28日，蔚来的市值约为370亿美元，由于投资者对电动汽车股票的兴趣激增，其股价今年迄今上涨了约7倍。理想汽车和小鹏汽车均于8月左右在美国上市，希望利用估值飙升的机会，市值分别约为150亿美元和140亿美元。相对而言，蔚来的交易价格约为2020年预计收入的15倍，理想汽车的交易价格约为12倍，而小鹏汽车的交易价格约为20倍。</blockquote></p><p> While valuations are certainly high, investors are likely betting that these companies will continue to grow in the domestic market, while eventually playing a larger role in the global EV space leveraging China’s relatively low-cost manufacturing, and the country’s ecosystem of battery and auto parts suppliers. Of the three companies, Nio might be the safer bet, considering its slightly longer track record, higher Revenues, and investments in technology such as battery swaps and self-driving. Li Auto also looks attractive considering its rapid growth - driven by the uptake of its hybrid powertrains - and relatively attractive valuation of about 12x 2020 Revenues.</p><p><blockquote>虽然估值肯定很高，但投资者可能押注这些公司将继续在国内市场增长，同时最终利用中国相对低成本的制造业以及该国的电池和汽车生态系统在全球电动汽车领域发挥更大的作用零部件供应商。在这三家公司中，考虑到蔚来稍长的业绩记录、较高的收入以及对电池更换和自动驾驶等技术的投资，它可能是更安全的选择。考虑到其快速增长（由混合动力系统的采用推动）以及相对有吸引力的估值（约为2020年收入的12倍），理想汽车看起来也很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Electric vehicles are the future of transportation, but picking the right EV stocks can be tricky. Investing in<b>Electric Vehicle Component Supplier Stocks</b>can be a good alternative to play the growth in the EV market.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车是交通的未来，但选择正确的电动汽车股票可能很棘手。投资于<b>电动汽车零部件供应商库存</b>可以成为电动汽车市场增长的一个很好的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143759096","content_text":"(June 22) EV stocks fell in morning trading. Tesla fell 0.33%, XPeng fell over 5%, NIO fell over 3%, LI fell about 2%.\n\nLi Auto, Nio, Xpeng: Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes, According To Forbes.\nThe stocks of Chinese EV players have surged over the last month, largely reversing the effects of the sell-off seen earlier this year.Nio stock(NYSE: NIO) has rallied by almost 38% over the last month, Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) gained 45%, and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) surged by almost 58%. Now although the three companies posted mixed delivery figures for the month of May, with Nio and Li Auto both posting declines in their deliveries versus April, and Xpeng growing sales marginally, the sales numbers likely weren’t as bad as expected, considering the semiconductor shortage that has roiled the auto industry. In contrast, major auto players such as GM and Ford had to temporarily idle or scale back production at several plants.\nThe outlook provided by the three companies was also stronger than expected, giving investors confidence that the worst of the semiconductor shortage is likely over. Li Auto has guided to 14,500 to 15,500 deliveries for the second quarter, a sequential increase of 22% on the upper end. The company says that it is optimistic that actual numbers will exceed guidance, given that it is seeing stronger than expected orders for the upgraded version of its Li One SUV. Nio also reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver a record 8,200 vehicles in June.\nNow are the stocks a buy at current levels? While the growth outlook is certainly strong, the stocks don’t exactly appear cheap at current valuations. Nio trades at 14x forward revenue, while Li Auto trades at 9x, and Xpeng trades at about 16x. Near-term threats to EV valuations include higher inflation and recent commentary by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is now apparently looking at two interest rate hikes in 2023, instead of 2024. This could put pressure on high-multiple, high-growth stocks, including EV names. In our analysis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare? we compare the financial performance and valuations of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.\n[6/2/2021] Is The Worst Of The Semiconductor Crunch Over For Chinese EVs?\nChinese electric vehicle majorsNio (NYSE: NIO)and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) provided mixed delivery figures for the month of May, as they continued to be impacted by the current shortage of semiconductors. While Nio delivered a total of 6,711 vehicles in May, down 5.5% from April, Xpeng was able to grow deliveries by about 10% over the last month to 5,686 units, although the number is below peak monthly sales of 6,015 vehicles witnessed in January. Although both companies reported robust year-over-year growth numbers (2x to 6x), the sequential figures are more closely tracked for fast-growing companies.\nHowever, things are probably going to get better from here. Nio, for instance, reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver as many as 8,200 vehicles in June, a monthly record. This is likely an indicator that the global automotive semiconductor shortage is easing off, and also a sign that Nio is holding its own in the Chinese EV market, despite mounting competition. Nio stock rallied by almost 10% in Tuesday’s trading, while Xpeng’s stock was up by about 8% following the report.\nDespite the recent rally, the stocks might still be worth considering at current levels. Nio stock remains down by about 20% year-to-date while Xpeng is down by about 22%. See our analysis on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?for an overview of the financial and valuation metrics of the three U.S. listed Chinese EV players.\n[5/21/2021] How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?\nU.S. listed Chinese EV players Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) have underperformed this year, with their stocks down by roughly 30% each, since early January. So how do these stocks compare post the correction? While Nio and Xpeng remain pricier compared to Li Auto, they probably justify their higher valuation for a couple of reasons. Here is a bit more about these companies.\nOur analysis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare? compares the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.\nNio remains the most richly valued of the three companies, trading at about 10.5x forward revenue. Revenues are likely to grow by over 110% this year, per consensus estimates. Longer-term growth is also likely to remain strong, given the company’s wide product portfolio (it already has three models on the market), its unique innovations such as battery swapping, its global expansion plans, and investments into autonomous driving. Nio brand also has a lot more buzz, with the company viewed as the most direct rival to Tesla in China. Gross margins stood at 19.5% in Q1 2021, up from a negative 12% a year ago.\nXpeng trades at about 10x projected 2021 revenues. Sales growth is projected to be the strongest among the three companies, rising by over 150% this year, per consensus estimates. Besides its higher projected growth, investors have been assigning a premium to the company due to its progress in the autonomous driving space. Xpeng currently sells the G3 SUV and the P7 sedan and its new P5 compact sedan is likely to hit the roads later this year. Although Xpeng’s gross margins have improved, rising to about 11% over Q1, versus negative levels a year ago, they are still below Nio’s margins.\nLi Auto trades at just 6x projected 2021 revenues, the lowest of the three companies. Revenues are likely to roughly double this year, with gross margins standing at 17.5% as of Q4 2020 (the company has yet to report Q1 results). The lower valuation is likely due to the company’s focus on a single product - the Li Xiang ONE, an electric SUV that also has a small gasoline engine and also due to the fact that Li Auto is behind rivals in terms of autonomous driving tech.\n[10/30/2020] How Do Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto Compare\nThe Chinese electric vehicle space is booming, with China-based manufacturers accounting for over 50% of global EV deliveries. Demand for EVs in China is likely to remain robust as the Chinese government wants about 25% of all new cars sold in the country to be electric by 2025, up from roughly 5% at present.[1]While Tesla is a leader in the Chinese luxury EV market driven by production at its new Shanghai facility, Nio, Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) - three relatively young U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players, have also been gaining traction. In our analysisNio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?we compare the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players. Parts of the analysis are summarized below.\nOverview Of Nio, Li Auto & Xpeng’s Business\nNio, which was founded in 2014, currently offers three premium electric SUVs, ES8, ES6, and EC6, which are priced starting at about $50k. The company is working on developing self-driving technology and also offers other unique innovations such as Battery as a Service (BaaS) - which allows customers to subscribe for car batteries, rather than paying for them upfront. While the company has scaled up production, it hasn’t come without challenges, as it recalled about 5,000 vehicles last year after reports of multiple fires.\nLi Auto sells Extended-Range Electric Vehicles, which are essentially EVs that also have a small gasoline engine that can generate additional electric power for the battery. This reduces the need for EV-charging infrastructure, which is currently limited in China. The company’s hybrid strategy appears to be paying off - with its Li ONE SUV, which is priced at about $46,000 - ranking as the top-selling SUV in the new energy vehicle segment in China in September 2020. The new energy segment includes fuel cell, electric, and plug-in hybrid vehicles.\nXpeng produces and sells premium electric vehicles including the G3 SUV and the P7 four-door sedan, which are roughly positioned as rivals to Tesla’s Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan, although they are more affordable, with the basic version of the G3 starting at about $22,000 post subsidies. The G3 SUV was among the top 3 Electric SUVs in terms of sales in China in 2019. While the company began production in late 2018, initially via a deal with an established automaker, it has started production at its own factory in the Guangdong province.\nHow Have The Deliveries, Revenues & Margins Trended\nNio delivered about 21k vehicles in 2019, up from about 11k vehicles in 2018. This compares to Xpeng which delivered about 13k vehicles in 2019 and Li Auto which delivered about 1k vehicles, considering that it began production only late last year. While Nio’s deliveries this year could approach about 40k units, Li Auto and Xpeng are likely to deliver around 25k vehicles with Li Auto seeing the highest growth. Over 2019, Nio’s Revenues stood at $1.1 billion, compared to about $40 million for Li Auto and $330 million for Xpeng. Nio’s Revenues are likely to grow 95% this year, while Xpeng’s Revenues are likely to grow by about 120%. All three companies remain deeply lossmaking as costs related to R&D and SG&A remain high relative to Revenues. Nio’s Net Margins stood at -195% in 2019, Li Auto’s margins stood at about -860% while Xpeng’s margins stood at -160%. However, margins are likely to improve sharply in 2020, as volumes pick up.\nValuation\nNio’s Market Cap stood at about $37 billion as of October 28, 2020, with its stock price rising by about 7x year-to-date due to surging investor interest in EV stocks. Li Auto and Xpeng, which were both listed in the U.S. around August as they looked to capitalize on surging valuations, have a market cap of about $15 billion and $14 billion, respectively. On a relative basis, Nio trades at about 15x projected 2020 Revenues, Li Auto trades at about 12x, while Xpeng trades at about 20x.\nWhile valuations are certainly high, investors are likely betting that these companies will continue to grow in the domestic market, while eventually playing a larger role in the global EV space leveraging China’s relatively low-cost manufacturing, and the country’s ecosystem of battery and auto parts suppliers. Of the three companies, Nio might be the safer bet, considering its slightly longer track record, higher Revenues, and investments in technology such as battery swaps and self-driving. Li Auto also looks attractive considering its rapid growth - driven by the uptake of its hybrid powertrains - and relatively attractive valuation of about 12x 2020 Revenues.\nElectric vehicles are the future of transportation, but picking the right EV stocks can be tricky. Investing inElectric Vehicle Component Supplier Stockscan be a good alternative to play the growth in the EV market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120784446,"gmtCreate":1624337772185,"gmtModify":1634007558148,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Onwards","listText":"Onwards","text":"Onwards","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92fd29fbe321fa917d6c124e08f2ec0e","width":"750","height":"2181"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120784446","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167067867,"gmtCreate":1624239956359,"gmtModify":1634009081298,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Watch this space?","listText":"Watch this space?","text":"Watch this space?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88d0bc71a487e377b1c60c860142963f","width":"750","height":"2072"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167067867","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161210387,"gmtCreate":1623928129549,"gmtModify":1634025777746,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"With such shareholder valuation, won’t it give themgmt more war chest to pursue greater initiatives?","listText":"With such shareholder valuation, won’t it give themgmt more war chest to pursue greater initiatives?","text":"With such shareholder valuation, won’t it give themgmt more war chest to pursue greater initiatives?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161210387","repostId":"2143979397","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1598,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108599448,"gmtCreate":1620037712484,"gmtModify":1634208344644,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It can only go uppp","listText":"It can only go uppp","text":"It can only go uppp","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108599448","repostId":"1135819410","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135819410","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619999342,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135819410?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-03 07:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135819410","media":"Barrons","summary":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their fi","content":"<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p><blockquote>又是财报密集的一周，130家标普500公司即将发布第一季度业绩。雅诗兰黛是周一的亮点之一，周二情况有所好转：动视暴雪、CVS Health、杜邦、辉瑞和T-Mobile US均报告。</blockquote></p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、General Motors、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies将发布财报。百威英博、Moderna、再生元制药、Square和ViacomCBS将于周四发布。最后，Cigna将于周五结束这一周。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p><blockquote>在本周的经济日历上，主要事件将是周五的就业。美国劳工统计局预计将报告4月份非农就业人数增加97.5万人，失业率为5.8%，低于一个月前的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他数据包括供应管理协会周一公布的4月份制造业采购经理人指数和周三公布的服务业采购经理人指数。</blockquote></p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>企业产品合作伙伴和雅诗兰黛发布收益。</blockquote></p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>默克和Public Storage举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告三月份建筑支出数据。市场普遍预计建筑支出环比增长0.6%，经季节调整后的年率为1.53万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应研究所</b>管理层发布四月份制造业采购经理人指数。经济学家预测为65，与3月份的数据大致持平。3月份的读数是该指数自1983年12月以来的最高值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二5/4</b></blockquote></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪、康菲石油公司、康明斯、CVS Health、Dominion Energy、杜邦、伊顿、辉瑞、Sysco和T-Mobile US报告季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司召开电话会议讨论其可持续发展计划。</blockquote></p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><blockquote>联合太平洋公司举办2021年虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三5/5</b></blockquote></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、BorgWarner、Emerson Electric、General Motors、Hilton Worldwide Holdings、Novo Nordisk、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies发布财报。</blockquote></p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP释放</b>四月份全国就业报告。继3月份增加517,000个工作岗位后，预计私营部门就业岗位将增加762,500个。</blockquote></p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><blockquote><b>ISM版本</b>4月份服务业PMI。普遍的看涨期权为64.6，比3月份的数据高出一个百分点。3月份的读数是该指数的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四5/6</b></blockquote></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>百威英博、Becton Dickinson、Expedia Group、富达国家信息服务公司、家乐氏、林德、大都会人寿、Moderna、再生元制药、Square、ViacomCBS和Zoetishold在评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至5月1日当周首次申请失业救济人数。4月份平均每周初请失业金人数为611,750人，处于去年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计数据报告了第一季度的劳动力成本和生产率。预计经季节调整后的生产率年增长率为2.2%，而2020年第四季度为下降4.2%。单位劳动力成本在此前上涨6%后预计将下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五5/7</b></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布四月份就业报告。经济学家预测非农就业人数将增加975,000人。失业率预计将从6%小幅降至5.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p><p><blockquote>信诺和<b>自由媒体</b>报告收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-03 07:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p><blockquote>又是财报密集的一周，130家标普500公司即将发布第一季度业绩。雅诗兰黛是周一的亮点之一，周二情况有所好转：动视暴雪、CVS Health、杜邦、辉瑞和T-Mobile US均报告。</blockquote></p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、General Motors、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies将发布财报。百威英博、Moderna、再生元制药、Square和ViacomCBS将于周四发布。最后，Cigna将于周五结束这一周。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p><blockquote>在本周的经济日历上，主要事件将是周五的就业。美国劳工统计局预计将报告4月份非农就业人数增加97.5万人，失业率为5.8%，低于一个月前的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他数据包括供应管理协会周一公布的4月份制造业采购经理人指数和周三公布的服务业采购经理人指数。</blockquote></p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>企业产品合作伙伴和雅诗兰黛发布收益。</blockquote></p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>默克和Public Storage举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告三月份建筑支出数据。市场普遍预计建筑支出环比增长0.6%，经季节调整后的年率为1.53万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应研究所</b>管理层发布四月份制造业采购经理人指数。经济学家预测为65，与3月份的数据大致持平。3月份的读数是该指数自1983年12月以来的最高值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二5/4</b></blockquote></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪、康菲石油公司、康明斯、CVS Health、Dominion Energy、杜邦、伊顿、辉瑞、Sysco和T-Mobile US报告季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司召开电话会议讨论其可持续发展计划。</blockquote></p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><blockquote>联合太平洋公司举办2021年虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三5/5</b></blockquote></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、BorgWarner、Emerson Electric、General Motors、Hilton Worldwide Holdings、Novo Nordisk、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies发布财报。</blockquote></p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP释放</b>四月份全国就业报告。继3月份增加517,000个工作岗位后，预计私营部门就业岗位将增加762,500个。</blockquote></p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><blockquote><b>ISM版本</b>4月份服务业PMI。普遍的看涨期权为64.6，比3月份的数据高出一个百分点。3月份的读数是该指数的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四5/6</b></blockquote></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>百威英博、Becton Dickinson、Expedia Group、富达国家信息服务公司、家乐氏、林德、大都会人寿、Moderna、再生元制药、Square、ViacomCBS和Zoetishold在评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至5月1日当周首次申请失业救济人数。4月份平均每周初请失业金人数为611,750人，处于去年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计数据报告了第一季度的劳动力成本和生产率。预计经季节调整后的生产率年增长率为2.2%，而2020年第四季度为下降4.2%。单位劳动力成本在此前上涨6%后预计将下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五5/7</b></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布四月份就业报告。经济学家预测非农就业人数将增加975,000人。失业率预计将从6%小幅降至5.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p><p><blockquote>信诺和<b>自由媒体</b>报告收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞",".DJI":"道琼斯","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc","PYPL":"PayPal",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UBER":"优步",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135819410","content_text":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday: Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.On Wednesday, Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings. Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on Friday.On the economic calendar this week, the main event will jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its Services equivalent on Wednesday.Enterprise Products Partners and Estée Lauder release earnings.Merck and Public Storage hold virtual investor days.The Census Bureau reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.Tuesday 5/4Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.Eli Lilly holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.Union Pacific holds its 2021 virtual investor day.Wednesday 5/5Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.ADP releases its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.ISM releases its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.Thursday 5/6Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.Friday 5/7The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.Cigna and Liberty Media report earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TMUS":0.9,"VIACP":0.9,"UBER":0.9,"GM":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"PFE":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103525775,"gmtCreate":1619794817297,"gmtModify":1631883991490,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"One step at a time","listText":"One step at a time","text":"One step at a time","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3799b0172e613f11a1c3986f6e0c4f07","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103525775","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375848927,"gmtCreate":1619327088069,"gmtModify":1634274204089,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Exciting week as always-&nbsp;Please like!","listText":"Exciting week as always-&nbsp;Please like!","text":"Exciting week as always- Please like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375848927","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372917151,"gmtCreate":1619168022973,"gmtModify":1634288043594,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This made it to tiger !","listText":"This made it to tiger !","text":"This made it to tiger !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372917151","repostId":"1143062408","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348575067,"gmtCreate":1617946935159,"gmtModify":1634295581479,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Watch inflation","listText":"Watch inflation","text":"Watch inflation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348575067","repostId":"1147517160","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341406844,"gmtCreate":1617844498288,"gmtModify":1634296199759,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good stuff","listText":"Good stuff","text":"Good stuff","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341406844","repostId":"1139572887","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1139572887","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617843226,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139572887?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-08 08:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO and Other Chinese EV Stocks Are Getting Crushed. Tesla’s Not Doing So Hot Either.<blockquote>蔚来和其他中国电动汽车股票正在遭受重创。特斯拉也没那么热。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139572887","media":"Barron's","summary":"Shares ofNIO,XPeng,andLi Autofell dramatically in Wednesday trading, adding to recent investor pain.","content":"<p>Shares ofNIO,XPeng,andLi Autofell dramatically in Wednesday trading, adding to recent investor pain. Electric vehicle stocks have been roiled by issues ranging frominterest ratechanges tomicrochip shortages. Today’s is due to a new reason.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车和理想汽车的股价在周三交易中大幅下跌，加剧了投资者近期的痛苦。电动汽车股票受到利率变化和微芯片短缺等问题的困扰。今天的是由于一个新的原因。</blockquote></p><p> NIO (ticker: NIO) shares fell almost 7%. XPeng (XPEV) stock dropped 8%. Li Auto (LI) shares fared the worst Wednesday, dropping almost 13%.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（股票代码：蔚来）股价下跌近7%。小鹏汽车(XPEV)股价下跌8%。理想汽车(LI)股价周三表现最差，下跌近13%。</blockquote></p><p> EV investors can’t use rotation out of highly valued technology stocks as an excuse, however. Recently, old economy value-oriented stocks have been outperforming tech as the global economy awakens from its Covid-induced coma. TheNasdaq Composite Indexfell only 0.1%. TheRussell 1000 Growth Indexand theS&amp;P 500both closed up about 0.2%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，电动汽车投资者不能以退出高估值科技股为借口。最近，随着全球经济从新冠疫情引发的昏迷中醒来，以旧经济价值为导向的股票的表现一直优于科技股。纳斯达克综合指数仅下跌0.1%。罗素1000增长指数和标准普尔500指数均收涨约0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> So what’s hurting Chinese EV stocks? Li Auto seems responsible, catalyzing the drop byannouncingplans for a $750 convertible bond offering in what amounts to a capital raise.Convertible bonds, as their name suggests, convert into common stock under certain conditions, and investors don’t like to see their existing stakes diluted with new stock. It’s the reasonmost capital raisestend to drive stock prices down for a while.</p><p><blockquote>那么是什么在伤害中国电动汽车股票呢？理想汽车似乎负有责任，宣布计划发行750美元的可转换债券，相当于融资，从而催化了股价的下跌。可转换债券，顾名思义，在某些条件下可以转换为普通股，投资者不喜欢看到他们现有的股份被稀释与新股。这就是大多数融资往往会导致股价暂时下跌的原因。</blockquote></p><p> A convertible bond can generate some stock selling pressure in yet another way. Convertible arbitrage traders will sell the stock of the issuer short and buy the convertible bond. That way they can lock in a relatively attractive bond yield and take the stock risk, embedded in a convertible, out of their return equation.</p><p><blockquote>可转换债券可以以另一种方式产生一些股票抛售压力。可转换套利交易者会卖空发行人的股票并买入可转换债券。这样，他们就可以锁定相对有吸引力的债券收益率，并将可转换债券中嵌入的股票风险从回报等式中剔除。</blockquote></p><p> With Wednesday’s drop, NIO, XPeng, and Li stocks are down more than 20% on average this year. U.S. EV stocks aren’t doing so hot either.Lordstown Motors(RIDE) has tumbled 41% this year, whileWorkhorse Group(WKHS) has slumped 44%, andNikolahas dropped 19%. All three of those stock have had their own issues to deal with, such asnegative research reportsandcontract losses.</p><p><blockquote>随着周三的下跌，蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车的股价今年平均下跌了20%以上。美国电动汽车股也没有那么火爆。Lordstown Motors(RIDE)今年下跌了41%，Workhorse Group(WKHS)下跌了44%，Nikolah下跌了19%。这三只股票都有自己的问题需要处理，例如负面研究报告和合同损失。</blockquote></p><p> And evenTesla(TSLA), which is down just 4.9% in 2021, has fallen 24% since peaking in January.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉(TSLA)2021年仅下跌4.9%，自1月份达到峰值以来已下跌24%。</blockquote></p><p> EV investors havedealt with a lotalready in 2021. Higher interest rates, which make financing growth more expensive and reduce the value of future cash flows, hurt EV stocks. So has the chip shortage. NIO stock, for instance, dropped after it cut delivery guidance because of a lack of chips. Now the specter of more capital raises is shaking investor confidence a little more.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车投资者在2021年已经处理了很多问题。利率上升使融资增长更加昂贵并降低未来现金流的价值，从而损害了电动汽车股票。芯片短缺也是如此。例如，蔚来股价因缺乏芯片而下调交付指引后下跌。现在，更多融资的担忧进一步动摇了投资者的信心。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO and Other Chinese EV Stocks Are Getting Crushed. Tesla’s Not Doing So Hot Either.<blockquote>蔚来和其他中国电动汽车股票正在遭受重创。特斯拉也没那么热。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO and Other Chinese EV Stocks Are Getting Crushed. Tesla’s Not Doing So Hot Either.<blockquote>蔚来和其他中国电动汽车股票正在遭受重创。特斯拉也没那么热。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-08 08:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares ofNIO,XPeng,andLi Autofell dramatically in Wednesday trading, adding to recent investor pain. Electric vehicle stocks have been roiled by issues ranging frominterest ratechanges tomicrochip shortages. Today’s is due to a new reason.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车和理想汽车的股价在周三交易中大幅下跌，加剧了投资者近期的痛苦。电动汽车股票受到利率变化和微芯片短缺等问题的困扰。今天的是由于一个新的原因。</blockquote></p><p> NIO (ticker: NIO) shares fell almost 7%. XPeng (XPEV) stock dropped 8%. Li Auto (LI) shares fared the worst Wednesday, dropping almost 13%.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（股票代码：蔚来）股价下跌近7%。小鹏汽车(XPEV)股价下跌8%。理想汽车(LI)股价周三表现最差，下跌近13%。</blockquote></p><p> EV investors can’t use rotation out of highly valued technology stocks as an excuse, however. Recently, old economy value-oriented stocks have been outperforming tech as the global economy awakens from its Covid-induced coma. TheNasdaq Composite Indexfell only 0.1%. TheRussell 1000 Growth Indexand theS&amp;P 500both closed up about 0.2%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，电动汽车投资者不能以退出高估值科技股为借口。最近，随着全球经济从新冠疫情引发的昏迷中醒来，以旧经济价值为导向的股票的表现一直优于科技股。纳斯达克综合指数仅下跌0.1%。罗素1000增长指数和标准普尔500指数均收涨约0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> So what’s hurting Chinese EV stocks? Li Auto seems responsible, catalyzing the drop byannouncingplans for a $750 convertible bond offering in what amounts to a capital raise.Convertible bonds, as their name suggests, convert into common stock under certain conditions, and investors don’t like to see their existing stakes diluted with new stock. It’s the reasonmost capital raisestend to drive stock prices down for a while.</p><p><blockquote>那么是什么在伤害中国电动汽车股票呢？理想汽车似乎负有责任，宣布计划发行750美元的可转换债券，相当于融资，从而催化了股价的下跌。可转换债券，顾名思义，在某些条件下可以转换为普通股，投资者不喜欢看到他们现有的股份被稀释与新股。这就是大多数融资往往会导致股价暂时下跌的原因。</blockquote></p><p> A convertible bond can generate some stock selling pressure in yet another way. Convertible arbitrage traders will sell the stock of the issuer short and buy the convertible bond. That way they can lock in a relatively attractive bond yield and take the stock risk, embedded in a convertible, out of their return equation.</p><p><blockquote>可转换债券可以以另一种方式产生一些股票抛售压力。可转换套利交易者会卖空发行人的股票并买入可转换债券。这样，他们就可以锁定相对有吸引力的债券收益率，并将可转换债券中嵌入的股票风险从回报等式中剔除。</blockquote></p><p> With Wednesday’s drop, NIO, XPeng, and Li stocks are down more than 20% on average this year. U.S. EV stocks aren’t doing so hot either.Lordstown Motors(RIDE) has tumbled 41% this year, whileWorkhorse Group(WKHS) has slumped 44%, andNikolahas dropped 19%. All three of those stock have had their own issues to deal with, such asnegative research reportsandcontract losses.</p><p><blockquote>随着周三的下跌，蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车的股价今年平均下跌了20%以上。美国电动汽车股也没有那么火爆。Lordstown Motors(RIDE)今年下跌了41%，Workhorse Group(WKHS)下跌了44%，Nikolah下跌了19%。这三只股票都有自己的问题需要处理，例如负面研究报告和合同损失。</blockquote></p><p> And evenTesla(TSLA), which is down just 4.9% in 2021, has fallen 24% since peaking in January.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉(TSLA)2021年仅下跌4.9%，自1月份达到峰值以来已下跌24%。</blockquote></p><p> EV investors havedealt with a lotalready in 2021. Higher interest rates, which make financing growth more expensive and reduce the value of future cash flows, hurt EV stocks. So has the chip shortage. NIO stock, for instance, dropped after it cut delivery guidance because of a lack of chips. Now the specter of more capital raises is shaking investor confidence a little more.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车投资者在2021年已经处理了很多问题。利率上升使融资增长更加昂贵并降低未来现金流的价值，从而损害了电动汽车股票。芯片短缺也是如此。例如，蔚来股价因缺乏芯片而下调交付指引后下跌。现在，更多融资的担忧进一步动摇了投资者的信心。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nio-and-other-chinese-ev-stocks-are-getting-crushed-teslas-not-doing-so-hot-either-51617830812?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LI":"理想汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nio-and-other-chinese-ev-stocks-are-getting-crushed-teslas-not-doing-so-hot-either-51617830812?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139572887","content_text":"Shares ofNIO,XPeng,andLi Autofell dramatically in Wednesday trading, adding to recent investor pain. Electric vehicle stocks have been roiled by issues ranging frominterest ratechanges tomicrochip shortages. Today’s is due to a new reason.\nNIO (ticker: NIO) shares fell almost 7%. XPeng (XPEV) stock dropped 8%. Li Auto (LI) shares fared the worst Wednesday, dropping almost 13%.\nEV investors can’t use rotation out of highly valued technology stocks as an excuse, however. Recently, old economy value-oriented stocks have been outperforming tech as the global economy awakens from its Covid-induced coma. TheNasdaq Composite Indexfell only 0.1%. TheRussell 1000 Growth Indexand theS&P 500both closed up about 0.2%.\nSo what’s hurting Chinese EV stocks? Li Auto seems responsible, catalyzing the drop byannouncingplans for a $750 convertible bond offering in what amounts to a capital raise.Convertible bonds, as their name suggests, convert into common stock under certain conditions, and investors don’t like to see their existing stakes diluted with new stock. It’s the reasonmost capital raisestend to drive stock prices down for a while.\nA convertible bond can generate some stock selling pressure in yet another way. Convertible arbitrage traders will sell the stock of the issuer short and buy the convertible bond. That way they can lock in a relatively attractive bond yield and take the stock risk, embedded in a convertible, out of their return equation.\nWith Wednesday’s drop, NIO, XPeng, and Li stocks are down more than 20% on average this year. U.S. EV stocks aren’t doing so hot either.Lordstown Motors(RIDE) has tumbled 41% this year, whileWorkhorse Group(WKHS) has slumped 44%, andNikolahas dropped 19%. All three of those stock have had their own issues to deal with, such asnegative research reportsandcontract losses.\nAnd evenTesla(TSLA), which is down just 4.9% in 2021, has fallen 24% since peaking in January.\nEV investors havedealt with a lotalready in 2021. Higher interest rates, which make financing growth more expensive and reduce the value of future cash flows, hurt EV stocks. So has the chip shortage. NIO stock, for instance, dropped after it cut delivery guidance because of a lack of chips. Now the specter of more capital raises is shaking investor confidence a little more.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341198061,"gmtCreate":1617789499853,"gmtModify":1634296503446,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like !&nbsp;","listText":"Please like !&nbsp;","text":"Please like !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341198061","repostId":"2125749373","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343618630,"gmtCreate":1617712469220,"gmtModify":1634296989129,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343618630","repostId":"2125757547","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343618067,"gmtCreate":1617712439059,"gmtModify":1634296989370,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Every month we hear something like this","listText":"Every month we hear something like this","text":"Every month we hear something like this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343618067","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349634970,"gmtCreate":1617600964990,"gmtModify":1634297652047,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349634970","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357616378,"gmtCreate":1617266759194,"gmtModify":1634521714946,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and share","listText":"Like and share","text":"Like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357616378","repostId":"2124022412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354493039,"gmtCreate":1617194074721,"gmtModify":1634522160254,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"New rotation","listText":"New rotation","text":"New rotation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354493039","repostId":"1106944157","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":937,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355403662,"gmtCreate":1617092215056,"gmtModify":1634522705644,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BP - we will never know the works behind this, could be a close door manipulation / big contraction on oil demand&nbsp;","listText":"BP - we will never know the works behind this, could be a close door manipulation / big contraction on oil demand&nbsp;","text":"BP - we will never know the works behind this, could be a close door manipulation / big contraction on oil demand","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355403662","repostId":"1167302622","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355574887,"gmtCreate":1617091893049,"gmtModify":1634522706728,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Danger","listText":"Danger","text":"Danger","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355574887","repostId":"1101398939","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":341198061,"gmtCreate":1617789499853,"gmtModify":1634296503446,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like !&nbsp;","listText":"Please like !&nbsp;","text":"Please like !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341198061","repostId":"2125749373","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108599448,"gmtCreate":1620037712484,"gmtModify":1634208344644,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It can only go uppp","listText":"It can only go uppp","text":"It can only go uppp","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108599448","repostId":"1135819410","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135819410","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619999342,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135819410?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-03 07:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135819410","media":"Barrons","summary":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their fi","content":"<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p><blockquote>又是财报密集的一周，130家标普500公司即将发布第一季度业绩。雅诗兰黛是周一的亮点之一，周二情况有所好转：动视暴雪、CVS Health、杜邦、辉瑞和T-Mobile US均报告。</blockquote></p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、General Motors、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies将发布财报。百威英博、Moderna、再生元制药、Square和ViacomCBS将于周四发布。最后，Cigna将于周五结束这一周。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p><blockquote>在本周的经济日历上，主要事件将是周五的就业。美国劳工统计局预计将报告4月份非农就业人数增加97.5万人，失业率为5.8%，低于一个月前的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他数据包括供应管理协会周一公布的4月份制造业采购经理人指数和周三公布的服务业采购经理人指数。</blockquote></p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>企业产品合作伙伴和雅诗兰黛发布收益。</blockquote></p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>默克和Public Storage举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告三月份建筑支出数据。市场普遍预计建筑支出环比增长0.6%，经季节调整后的年率为1.53万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应研究所</b>管理层发布四月份制造业采购经理人指数。经济学家预测为65，与3月份的数据大致持平。3月份的读数是该指数自1983年12月以来的最高值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二5/4</b></blockquote></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪、康菲石油公司、康明斯、CVS Health、Dominion Energy、杜邦、伊顿、辉瑞、Sysco和T-Mobile US报告季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司召开电话会议讨论其可持续发展计划。</blockquote></p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><blockquote>联合太平洋公司举办2021年虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三5/5</b></blockquote></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、BorgWarner、Emerson Electric、General Motors、Hilton Worldwide Holdings、Novo Nordisk、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies发布财报。</blockquote></p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP释放</b>四月份全国就业报告。继3月份增加517,000个工作岗位后，预计私营部门就业岗位将增加762,500个。</blockquote></p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><blockquote><b>ISM版本</b>4月份服务业PMI。普遍的看涨期权为64.6，比3月份的数据高出一个百分点。3月份的读数是该指数的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四5/6</b></blockquote></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>百威英博、Becton Dickinson、Expedia Group、富达国家信息服务公司、家乐氏、林德、大都会人寿、Moderna、再生元制药、Square、ViacomCBS和Zoetishold在评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至5月1日当周首次申请失业救济人数。4月份平均每周初请失业金人数为611,750人，处于去年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计数据报告了第一季度的劳动力成本和生产率。预计经季节调整后的生产率年增长率为2.2%，而2020年第四季度为下降4.2%。单位劳动力成本在此前上涨6%后预计将下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五5/7</b></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布四月份就业报告。经济学家预测非农就业人数将增加975,000人。失业率预计将从6%小幅降至5.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p><p><blockquote>信诺和<b>自由媒体</b>报告收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-03 07:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p><blockquote>又是财报密集的一周，130家标普500公司即将发布第一季度业绩。雅诗兰黛是周一的亮点之一，周二情况有所好转：动视暴雪、CVS Health、杜邦、辉瑞和T-Mobile US均报告。</blockquote></p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、General Motors、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies将发布财报。百威英博、Moderna、再生元制药、Square和ViacomCBS将于周四发布。最后，Cigna将于周五结束这一周。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p><blockquote>在本周的经济日历上，主要事件将是周五的就业。美国劳工统计局预计将报告4月份非农就业人数增加97.5万人，失业率为5.8%，低于一个月前的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他数据包括供应管理协会周一公布的4月份制造业采购经理人指数和周三公布的服务业采购经理人指数。</blockquote></p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>企业产品合作伙伴和雅诗兰黛发布收益。</blockquote></p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>默克和Public Storage举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告三月份建筑支出数据。市场普遍预计建筑支出环比增长0.6%，经季节调整后的年率为1.53万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应研究所</b>管理层发布四月份制造业采购经理人指数。经济学家预测为65，与3月份的数据大致持平。3月份的读数是该指数自1983年12月以来的最高值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二5/4</b></blockquote></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪、康菲石油公司、康明斯、CVS Health、Dominion Energy、杜邦、伊顿、辉瑞、Sysco和T-Mobile US报告季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司召开电话会议讨论其可持续发展计划。</blockquote></p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><blockquote>联合太平洋公司举办2021年虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三5/5</b></blockquote></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、BorgWarner、Emerson Electric、General Motors、Hilton Worldwide Holdings、Novo Nordisk、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies发布财报。</blockquote></p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP释放</b>四月份全国就业报告。继3月份增加517,000个工作岗位后，预计私营部门就业岗位将增加762,500个。</blockquote></p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><blockquote><b>ISM版本</b>4月份服务业PMI。普遍的看涨期权为64.6，比3月份的数据高出一个百分点。3月份的读数是该指数的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四5/6</b></blockquote></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>百威英博、Becton Dickinson、Expedia Group、富达国家信息服务公司、家乐氏、林德、大都会人寿、Moderna、再生元制药、Square、ViacomCBS和Zoetishold在评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至5月1日当周首次申请失业救济人数。4月份平均每周初请失业金人数为611,750人，处于去年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计数据报告了第一季度的劳动力成本和生产率。预计经季节调整后的生产率年增长率为2.2%，而2020年第四季度为下降4.2%。单位劳动力成本在此前上涨6%后预计将下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五5/7</b></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布四月份就业报告。经济学家预测非农就业人数将增加975,000人。失业率预计将从6%小幅降至5.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p><p><blockquote>信诺和<b>自由媒体</b>报告收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞",".DJI":"道琼斯","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc","PYPL":"PayPal",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UBER":"优步",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135819410","content_text":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday: Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.On Wednesday, Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings. Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on Friday.On the economic calendar this week, the main event will jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its Services equivalent on Wednesday.Enterprise Products Partners and Estée Lauder release earnings.Merck and Public Storage hold virtual investor days.The Census Bureau reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.Tuesday 5/4Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.Eli Lilly holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.Union Pacific holds its 2021 virtual investor day.Wednesday 5/5Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.ADP releases its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.ISM releases its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.Thursday 5/6Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.Friday 5/7The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.Cigna and Liberty Media report earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TMUS":0.9,"VIACP":0.9,"UBER":0.9,"GM":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"PFE":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349634970,"gmtCreate":1617600964990,"gmtModify":1634297652047,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349634970","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128729940,"gmtCreate":1624532696580,"gmtModify":1634004799498,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Byd all the way","listText":"Byd all the way","text":"Byd all the way","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128729940","repostId":"2145045355","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372917151,"gmtCreate":1619168022973,"gmtModify":1634288043594,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This made it to tiger !","listText":"This made it to tiger !","text":"This made it to tiger !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372917151","repostId":"1143062408","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366625892,"gmtCreate":1614477385416,"gmtModify":1703477705477,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASTI\">$ASCENT SOLAR TECH INC(ASTI)$</a>Bull run ended hoping for the next","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASTI\">$ASCENT SOLAR TECH INC(ASTI)$</a>Bull run ended hoping for the next","text":"$ASCENT SOLAR TECH INC(ASTI)$Bull run ended hoping for the next","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeff60bf093fb043cc021bd83afc9343","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366625892","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343618630,"gmtCreate":1617712469220,"gmtModify":1634296989129,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343618630","repostId":"2125757547","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320948408,"gmtCreate":1615004570704,"gmtModify":1703484167609,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMIX\">$Brazil Minerals, Inc.(BMIX)$</a>Persevere the end isnear! Don’t lose faith&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMIX\">$Brazil Minerals, Inc.(BMIX)$</a>Persevere the end isnear! Don’t lose faith&nbsp;","text":"$Brazil Minerals, Inc.(BMIX)$Persevere the end isnear! Don’t lose faith","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320948408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387964688,"gmtCreate":1613711002344,"gmtModify":1634552545512,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Corporate&nbsp;collaboration - the maximum penalty if any would be a petty fine and this would be old news.&nbsp;","listText":"Corporate&nbsp;collaboration - the maximum penalty if any would be a petty fine and this would be old news.&nbsp;","text":"Corporate collaboration - the maximum penalty if any would be a petty fine and this would be old news.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387964688","repostId":"1185112339","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382512267,"gmtCreate":1613466537359,"gmtModify":1634553574700,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great summary writer","listText":"Great summary writer","text":"Great summary writer","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382512267","repostId":"1168066718","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355574887,"gmtCreate":1617091893049,"gmtModify":1634522706728,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Danger","listText":"Danger","text":"Danger","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355574887","repostId":"1101398939","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325131483,"gmtCreate":1615873047742,"gmtModify":1703494290827,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Topics to address:1. Regulating&nbsp;speculative counters like GME/AMC&nbsp;2. Roles of SPACs versus IPOs3. Digital currencies like crypto&nbsp;","listText":"Topics to address:1. Regulating&nbsp;speculative counters like GME/AMC&nbsp;2. Roles of SPACs versus IPOs3. Digital currencies like crypto&nbsp;","text":"Topics to address:1. Regulating speculative counters like GME/AMC 2. Roles of SPACs versus IPOs3. Digital currencies like crypto","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325131483","repostId":"1105988154","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381323361,"gmtCreate":1612933704153,"gmtModify":1703767115164,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"enioyed this piece especially the idea of closing half your position! I believe this is here to stay -&nbsp;Embracing the new age investment mantra, I would caution to avoid&nbsp;controversial counters for genuine investors!","listText":"enioyed this piece especially the idea of closing half your position! I believe this is here to stay -&nbsp;Embracing the new age investment mantra, I would caution to avoid&nbsp;controversial counters for genuine investors!","text":"enioyed this piece especially the idea of closing half your position! I believe this is here to stay - Embracing the new age investment mantra, I would caution to avoid controversial counters for genuine investors!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381323361","repostId":"1149038980","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149038980","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612864337,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149038980?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-09 17:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC狂潮的这12个教训可以帮助您通过股票交易赚钱（或至少损失更少）</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149038980","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop or AMC Entertainment Hold","content":"<p>I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop&nbsp;or AMC Entertainment Holdings&nbsp;for a few hours or days, only to watch their gains evaporate.</p><p><blockquote>我可以听到投资者的呼声，他们在游戏驿站或AMC院线控股公司中获得了几个小时或几天的巨额利润，却眼睁睁地看着他们的收益蒸发。</blockquote></p><p> This coordinated bull raid was initiated by thousands of retail investors on Reddit, a popular website forum. We heard stories of fortunes made and lost. The ones we didn’t hear were from the folks in-between — small retail traders and investors who suffered thousands of dollars (or more) in losses.</p><p><blockquote>这场协同的牛市突袭是由热门网站论坛Reddit上的数千名散户投资者发起的。我们听到了财富创造和损失的故事。我们没有听到的是介于两者之间的人——遭受数千美元（或更多）损失的小型散户交易者和投资者。</blockquote></p><p> For those still holding GME or AMC, or for those eager to pounce on the next volatile meme stock, I offer the following advice based on personal experience and observations. These are the lessons you must know before you ever get involved in the stock or options market (or if you are holding a winning stock or option):</p><p><blockquote>对于那些仍然持有GME或AMC的人，或者那些渴望抓住下一个波动的模因股票的人，我根据个人经验和观察提供以下建议。以下是您在参与股票或期权市场（或者如果您持有获胜的股票或期权）之前必须了解的经验教训：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don’t sell stocks or options on products you don’t own:</b>The traders who lost the most money in GameStop and AMC were those who sold “naked” calls and puts (i.e. they sold options on stocks they didn’t own), or those who sold shares short (again, they sold shares on a stock they didn’t own). When using this extremely risky strategy, you can make a fortune if you’re right. If you’re wrong, the losses can be incalculable. In reality, some unwary traders lost tens of thousands of dollars last week on positions that cost a few thousand dollars. Once again, don’t sell anything naked unless you’re a professional, and in this case even the pros lost big on that risky bet.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要出售你不拥有的产品的股票或期权：</b>在游戏驿站和AMC损失最大的交易者是那些出售“裸”评级和看跌期权（即他们出售他们不拥有的股票的期权）的交易者，或者那些卖空股票的交易者（同样，他们出售他们不拥有的股票的股票）。当使用这种风险极高的策略时，如果你是对的，你可以发财。如果你错了，损失是无法估量的。事实上，一些粗心的交易者上周在几千美元的头寸上损失了数万美元。再说一次，除非你是专业人士，否则不要裸卖任何东西，在这种情况下，即使是专业人士也会在这个冒险的赌注上损失惨重。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Sell at the “zero point.”</b>&nbsp; Here’s a rule I created: If you have huge gains that disappear and you are at the zero point (i.e. break-even), sell before you have real losses. It’s better to walk away at zero than with losses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2.在“零点”卖出。</b>我制定了一条规则：如果你的巨额收益消失了，而你处于零点（即盈亏平衡），在你真正亏损之前卖出。零分离开总比亏损好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Don’t be a stubborn seller:</b>Why is it so hard for most traders to walk away at the zero point? Stubbornness. Many traders made huge gains last week only to watch those profits disappear. They refused to sell because they hoped to make their money back. If holding options, that’s not going to happen. (If you bought at or near the high, your money is gone. If you hold a stock, plan to wait months or even years to recover. Stubborn stockholders often end up as “stuckholders.”</p><p><blockquote><b>3.不要做固执的卖家：</b>为什么大多数交易者很难在零点离开？固执。许多交易者上周获得了巨大的收益，却眼睁睁地看着这些利润消失。他们拒绝出售，因为他们希望把钱赚回来。如果持有期权，这种情况就不会发生。（如果你在高点或附近买入，你的钱就没了。如果你持有一只股票，计划等待几个月甚至几年才能恢复。顽固的股东往往最终成为“持卡人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Take the money and run:</b>When you are holding a stock or option position that brings outsized profits, either sell half of your holding or all of it — but get out. I call this “selling at extremes.” Sell something when the profits are beyond your wildest expectations. We all know the story of the gambler who wins big at the casino, but doesn’t leave the table until all his money is gone. Know when to walk away from the computer. Profits are fleeting, especially when volatility skyrockets.</p><p><blockquote><b>4.拿了钱就跑：</b>当你持有一个能带来巨额利润的股票或期权头寸时，要么卖出一半，要么全部——但要退出。我看涨期权这个“极端销售”。当利润超出你最疯狂的预期时，卖掉一些东西。我们都知道一个赌徒的故事，他在赌场赢了大钱，但直到他所有的钱都花光了才离开牌桌。知道什么时候离开电脑。利润转瞬即逝，尤其是当波动性飙升时。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.Trade small when making longshot trades (i.e. gambling):</b>GameStop and AMC were both big gambles, and for a time the trade worked if you were long. But if you bet wrong? I spoke to a few of these traders. One lost $8,000 on a single option contract. If he had traded his normal size (30 contracts), he told me, his losses would have been more than $240,000.</p><p><blockquote><b>5.进行长期交易（即赌博）时进行小额交易：</b>游戏驿站和AMC都是豪赌，有一段时间，如果你做多，交易就会奏效。但如果你赌错了呢？我和其中一些交易员谈过。一个人在一份期权合约上损失了8,000美元。他告诉我，如果他交易的是正常规模（30份合约），他的损失将超过24万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Don’t expect this trading frenzy to keep happening:</b>It’s possible that a group of traders on the Reddit forum will band together for more bear- or bull raids. Except Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are most likely creating new rules to prevent this from repeating. The Fed hates volatility and will do everything in its power to keep the markets calm. So once again, when you make big money on a trade, take the money as fast as you can — because you may not get the chance again.</p><p><blockquote><b>6.不要指望这种交易狂潮会一直发生：</b>Reddit论坛上的一群交易者可能会联合起来进行更多的熊市或牛市袭击。除了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔很可能会制定新规则来防止这种情况再次发生。美联储讨厌波动，并将尽一切努力保持市场平静。所以，再一次，当你在一笔交易中赚了大钱时，尽快拿钱——因为你可能不会再有机会了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7. Stop bragging about how much money you made</b>: Many traders who won big immediately bragged on social media (and to their jealous friends) about how much money they made on this trade. Yet the euphoric feeling they had was temporary. It usually goes away after all the money is gone. The smart (and polite) traders took their gains and kept the win to themselves</p><p><blockquote><b>7.不要吹嘘你赚了多少钱</b>：许多赢得大奖的交易者立即在社交媒体上（以及向嫉妒的朋友）吹嘘他们在这笔交易中赚了多少钱。然而，他们的兴奋感是暂时的。一般钱都没了就没了。聪明（和礼貌）的交易者拿走了他们的收益，并把胜利留给了自己</blockquote></p><p> <b>8. Use a time stop:</b>Time stops are not well-known or popular, but with fast-moving stocks (or when trading options), they are invaluable. In an extremely fast market, the traditional stop-limit order won’t get filled, as many of those meme-stock traders found out the hard way. Instead, after making a huge profit, set a day or time to sell. For example, you may sell the position by Friday no matter what (although selling at extremes is better — see Rule #4).</p><p><blockquote><b>8.使用时间停止：</b>时间止损并不广为人知或流行，但对于快速波动的股票（或交易期权时），它们是无价的。在速度极快的市场中，传统的限价止损单不会被执行，正如许多模因股票交易者艰难地发现的那样。而是在获得巨额利润后，设定一个卖出的日期或时间。例如，无论如何，你都可以在周五之前卖出头寸（尽管在极端情况下卖出更好——见规则4）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9. Sell half or all of the position:</b>It’s never an easy decision to know when to sell. If you sell too early, it’s annoying to watch the stock go higher. Sell too late and you lose money. Selling half of your holding is a reasonable alternative, but you must be prepared to sell the other half if the position goes against you.</p><p><blockquote><b>9.卖出一半或全部仓位：</b>知道何时出售从来都不是一个容易的决定。如果你卖得太早，看着股票走高会很烦人。卖得太晚，你就会赔钱。出售一半持股是一个合理的选择，但如果头寸对您不利，您必须准备好出售另一半。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10. Don’t seek revenge when you lose money on a stock:</b>It’s common for traders to seek revenge on a stock they lost money on. Do not fall for this emotional trap. If you lost money on a stock, let it go and move on.</p><p><blockquote><b>10.当你在股票上亏损时不要寻求报复：</b>交易者对亏损的股票进行报复是很常见的。不要落入这个情感陷阱。如果你在一只股票上亏了钱，就让它过去，继续前进。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11. Trade small after you made or lost big:</b>If you’re feeling emotional about a stock, including feelings of anger or revenge, trade small. Many people who hit it big in the market can’t help but make bigger and bigger bets. Just like the gamblers at a casino, they keep trading until all their money is gone.</p><p><blockquote><b>11.在你赚了大钱或亏了大钱之后进行小额交易：</b>如果您对一只股票感到情绪化，包括愤怒或报复的感觉，请少量交易。很多在市场上大获全胜的人，都忍不住下了越来越大的赌注。就像赌场里的赌徒一样，他们不断交易，直到所有的钱都花光。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t think it can happen to you? One of the greatest speculators in the world, Jesse Livermore, made $100 million dollars in a single week in 1929. He then lost all of his money within five years. He should have moved most of his profits out of the market after his big win and traded small for the next year. Instead, he got reckless and lost it all.</p><p><blockquote>你觉得这不会发生在你身上吗？1929年，世界上最伟大的投机者之一杰西·利弗莫尔在一周内赚了1亿美元。然后他在五年内失去了所有的钱。他应该在大获全胜后将大部分利润撤出市场，并在第二年进行小额交易。相反，他变得鲁莽，失去了一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12. Don’t take on too much risk:</b>Never invest or trade with so much money that if you lost, you’d lose your house or 401(k). Brokers told me about clients who cleared out their retirement funds or took cash advances on their credit cards so they could buy GameStop and AMC. Some won, some lost, but many took on way too much risk.</p><p><blockquote><b>12.不要承担太多风险：</b>永远不要用太多的钱投资或交易，如果你输了，你就会失去你的房子或401(k)。经纪人告诉我，一些客户清空了退休基金或从信用卡上预支现金，以便购买游戏驿站和AMC。有些人赢了，有些人输了，但许多人冒了太多的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The meme-stock pyramid scheme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票金字塔计划</b></blockquote></p><p> Those who traded GameStop, AMC and other meme stocks thought they were trading, but they were actually participating in a gigantic pyramid scheme. Those who got in early and got out early probably did well. Those who entered late or held too long lost money.</p><p><blockquote>那些交易游戏驿站、AMC和其他模因股票的人以为他们在交易，但他们实际上是在参与一个巨大的金字塔计划。那些早进早出的人可能做得很好。那些进入较晚或持有时间过长的人亏损了。</blockquote></p><p> My advice: Review these 12 rules periodically. They are based on the experiences and the bad luck of thousands of other traders, including myself, who thought we were smarter than the market. In truth the market was smarter than us — because it always is.</p><p><blockquote>我的建议是：定期回顾这12条规则。它们是基于成千上万其他交易者的经验和坏运气，包括我自己，他们认为我们比市场更聪明。事实上，市场比我们聪明——因为它总是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC狂潮的这12个教训可以帮助您通过股票交易赚钱（或至少损失更少）</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 12 lessons from the GameStop and AMC frenzy can help you make money trading stocks (or at least lose less)<blockquote>游戏驿站和AMC狂潮的这12个教训可以帮助您通过股票交易赚钱（或至少损失更少）</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-09 17:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop&nbsp;or AMC Entertainment Holdings&nbsp;for a few hours or days, only to watch their gains evaporate.</p><p><blockquote>我可以听到投资者的呼声，他们在游戏驿站或AMC院线控股公司中获得了几个小时或几天的巨额利润，却眼睁睁地看着他们的收益蒸发。</blockquote></p><p> This coordinated bull raid was initiated by thousands of retail investors on Reddit, a popular website forum. We heard stories of fortunes made and lost. The ones we didn’t hear were from the folks in-between — small retail traders and investors who suffered thousands of dollars (or more) in losses.</p><p><blockquote>这场协同的牛市突袭是由热门网站论坛Reddit上的数千名散户投资者发起的。我们听到了财富创造和损失的故事。我们没有听到的是介于两者之间的人——遭受数千美元（或更多）损失的小型散户交易者和投资者。</blockquote></p><p> For those still holding GME or AMC, or for those eager to pounce on the next volatile meme stock, I offer the following advice based on personal experience and observations. These are the lessons you must know before you ever get involved in the stock or options market (or if you are holding a winning stock or option):</p><p><blockquote>对于那些仍然持有GME或AMC的人，或者那些渴望抓住下一个波动的模因股票的人，我根据个人经验和观察提供以下建议。以下是您在参与股票或期权市场（或者如果您持有获胜的股票或期权）之前必须了解的经验教训：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don’t sell stocks or options on products you don’t own:</b>The traders who lost the most money in GameStop and AMC were those who sold “naked” calls and puts (i.e. they sold options on stocks they didn’t own), or those who sold shares short (again, they sold shares on a stock they didn’t own). When using this extremely risky strategy, you can make a fortune if you’re right. If you’re wrong, the losses can be incalculable. In reality, some unwary traders lost tens of thousands of dollars last week on positions that cost a few thousand dollars. Once again, don’t sell anything naked unless you’re a professional, and in this case even the pros lost big on that risky bet.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要出售你不拥有的产品的股票或期权：</b>在游戏驿站和AMC损失最大的交易者是那些出售“裸”评级和看跌期权（即他们出售他们不拥有的股票的期权）的交易者，或者那些卖空股票的交易者（同样，他们出售他们不拥有的股票的股票）。当使用这种风险极高的策略时，如果你是对的，你可以发财。如果你错了，损失是无法估量的。事实上，一些粗心的交易者上周在几千美元的头寸上损失了数万美元。再说一次，除非你是专业人士，否则不要裸卖任何东西，在这种情况下，即使是专业人士也会在这个冒险的赌注上损失惨重。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Sell at the “zero point.”</b>&nbsp; Here’s a rule I created: If you have huge gains that disappear and you are at the zero point (i.e. break-even), sell before you have real losses. It’s better to walk away at zero than with losses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2.在“零点”卖出。</b>我制定了一条规则：如果你的巨额收益消失了，而你处于零点（即盈亏平衡），在你真正亏损之前卖出。零分离开总比亏损好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Don’t be a stubborn seller:</b>Why is it so hard for most traders to walk away at the zero point? Stubbornness. Many traders made huge gains last week only to watch those profits disappear. They refused to sell because they hoped to make their money back. If holding options, that’s not going to happen. (If you bought at or near the high, your money is gone. If you hold a stock, plan to wait months or even years to recover. Stubborn stockholders often end up as “stuckholders.”</p><p><blockquote><b>3.不要做固执的卖家：</b>为什么大多数交易者很难在零点离开？固执。许多交易者上周获得了巨大的收益，却眼睁睁地看着这些利润消失。他们拒绝出售，因为他们希望把钱赚回来。如果持有期权，这种情况就不会发生。（如果你在高点或附近买入，你的钱就没了。如果你持有一只股票，计划等待几个月甚至几年才能恢复。顽固的股东往往最终成为“持卡人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Take the money and run:</b>When you are holding a stock or option position that brings outsized profits, either sell half of your holding or all of it — but get out. I call this “selling at extremes.” Sell something when the profits are beyond your wildest expectations. We all know the story of the gambler who wins big at the casino, but doesn’t leave the table until all his money is gone. Know when to walk away from the computer. Profits are fleeting, especially when volatility skyrockets.</p><p><blockquote><b>4.拿了钱就跑：</b>当你持有一个能带来巨额利润的股票或期权头寸时，要么卖出一半，要么全部——但要退出。我看涨期权这个“极端销售”。当利润超出你最疯狂的预期时，卖掉一些东西。我们都知道一个赌徒的故事，他在赌场赢了大钱，但直到他所有的钱都花光了才离开牌桌。知道什么时候离开电脑。利润转瞬即逝，尤其是当波动性飙升时。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.Trade small when making longshot trades (i.e. gambling):</b>GameStop and AMC were both big gambles, and for a time the trade worked if you were long. But if you bet wrong? I spoke to a few of these traders. One lost $8,000 on a single option contract. If he had traded his normal size (30 contracts), he told me, his losses would have been more than $240,000.</p><p><blockquote><b>5.进行长期交易（即赌博）时进行小额交易：</b>游戏驿站和AMC都是豪赌，有一段时间，如果你做多，交易就会奏效。但如果你赌错了呢？我和其中一些交易员谈过。一个人在一份期权合约上损失了8,000美元。他告诉我，如果他交易的是正常规模（30份合约），他的损失将超过24万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Don’t expect this trading frenzy to keep happening:</b>It’s possible that a group of traders on the Reddit forum will band together for more bear- or bull raids. Except Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are most likely creating new rules to prevent this from repeating. The Fed hates volatility and will do everything in its power to keep the markets calm. So once again, when you make big money on a trade, take the money as fast as you can — because you may not get the chance again.</p><p><blockquote><b>6.不要指望这种交易狂潮会一直发生：</b>Reddit论坛上的一群交易者可能会联合起来进行更多的熊市或牛市袭击。除了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔很可能会制定新规则来防止这种情况再次发生。美联储讨厌波动，并将尽一切努力保持市场平静。所以，再一次，当你在一笔交易中赚了大钱时，尽快拿钱——因为你可能不会再有机会了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7. Stop bragging about how much money you made</b>: Many traders who won big immediately bragged on social media (and to their jealous friends) about how much money they made on this trade. Yet the euphoric feeling they had was temporary. It usually goes away after all the money is gone. The smart (and polite) traders took their gains and kept the win to themselves</p><p><blockquote><b>7.不要吹嘘你赚了多少钱</b>：许多赢得大奖的交易者立即在社交媒体上（以及向嫉妒的朋友）吹嘘他们在这笔交易中赚了多少钱。然而，他们的兴奋感是暂时的。一般钱都没了就没了。聪明（和礼貌）的交易者拿走了他们的收益，并把胜利留给了自己</blockquote></p><p> <b>8. Use a time stop:</b>Time stops are not well-known or popular, but with fast-moving stocks (or when trading options), they are invaluable. In an extremely fast market, the traditional stop-limit order won’t get filled, as many of those meme-stock traders found out the hard way. Instead, after making a huge profit, set a day or time to sell. For example, you may sell the position by Friday no matter what (although selling at extremes is better — see Rule #4).</p><p><blockquote><b>8.使用时间停止：</b>时间止损并不广为人知或流行，但对于快速波动的股票（或交易期权时），它们是无价的。在速度极快的市场中，传统的限价止损单不会被执行，正如许多模因股票交易者艰难地发现的那样。而是在获得巨额利润后，设定一个卖出的日期或时间。例如，无论如何，你都可以在周五之前卖出头寸（尽管在极端情况下卖出更好——见规则4）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9. Sell half or all of the position:</b>It’s never an easy decision to know when to sell. If you sell too early, it’s annoying to watch the stock go higher. Sell too late and you lose money. Selling half of your holding is a reasonable alternative, but you must be prepared to sell the other half if the position goes against you.</p><p><blockquote><b>9.卖出一半或全部仓位：</b>知道何时出售从来都不是一个容易的决定。如果你卖得太早，看着股票走高会很烦人。卖得太晚，你就会赔钱。出售一半持股是一个合理的选择，但如果头寸对您不利，您必须准备好出售另一半。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10. Don’t seek revenge when you lose money on a stock:</b>It’s common for traders to seek revenge on a stock they lost money on. Do not fall for this emotional trap. If you lost money on a stock, let it go and move on.</p><p><blockquote><b>10.当你在股票上亏损时不要寻求报复：</b>交易者对亏损的股票进行报复是很常见的。不要落入这个情感陷阱。如果你在一只股票上亏了钱，就让它过去，继续前进。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11. Trade small after you made or lost big:</b>If you’re feeling emotional about a stock, including feelings of anger or revenge, trade small. Many people who hit it big in the market can’t help but make bigger and bigger bets. Just like the gamblers at a casino, they keep trading until all their money is gone.</p><p><blockquote><b>11.在你赚了大钱或亏了大钱之后进行小额交易：</b>如果您对一只股票感到情绪化，包括愤怒或报复的感觉，请少量交易。很多在市场上大获全胜的人，都忍不住下了越来越大的赌注。就像赌场里的赌徒一样，他们不断交易，直到所有的钱都花光。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t think it can happen to you? One of the greatest speculators in the world, Jesse Livermore, made $100 million dollars in a single week in 1929. He then lost all of his money within five years. He should have moved most of his profits out of the market after his big win and traded small for the next year. Instead, he got reckless and lost it all.</p><p><blockquote>你觉得这不会发生在你身上吗？1929年，世界上最伟大的投机者之一杰西·利弗莫尔在一周内赚了1亿美元。然后他在五年内失去了所有的钱。他应该在大获全胜后将大部分利润撤出市场，并在第二年进行小额交易。相反，他变得鲁莽，失去了一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12. Don’t take on too much risk:</b>Never invest or trade with so much money that if you lost, you’d lose your house or 401(k). Brokers told me about clients who cleared out their retirement funds or took cash advances on their credit cards so they could buy GameStop and AMC. Some won, some lost, but many took on way too much risk.</p><p><blockquote><b>12.不要承担太多风险：</b>永远不要用太多的钱投资或交易，如果你输了，你就会失去你的房子或401(k)。经纪人告诉我，一些客户清空了退休基金或从信用卡上预支现金，以便购买游戏驿站和AMC。有些人赢了，有些人输了，但许多人冒了太多的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The meme-stock pyramid scheme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票金字塔计划</b></blockquote></p><p> Those who traded GameStop, AMC and other meme stocks thought they were trading, but they were actually participating in a gigantic pyramid scheme. Those who got in early and got out early probably did well. Those who entered late or held too long lost money.</p><p><blockquote>那些交易游戏驿站、AMC和其他模因股票的人以为他们在交易，但他们实际上是在参与一个巨大的金字塔计划。那些早进早出的人可能做得很好。那些进入较晚或持有时间过长的人亏损了。</blockquote></p><p> My advice: Review these 12 rules periodically. They are based on the experiences and the bad luck of thousands of other traders, including myself, who thought we were smarter than the market. In truth the market was smarter than us — because it always is.</p><p><blockquote>我的建议是：定期回顾这12条规则。它们是基于成千上万其他交易者的经验和坏运气，包括我自己，他们认为我们比市场更聪明。事实上，市场比我们聪明——因为它总是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-12-lessons-from-the-gamestop-and-amc-frenzy-can-help-you-make-money-trading-stocks-or-at-least-lose-less-11612771522?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-12-lessons-from-the-gamestop-and-amc-frenzy-can-help-you-make-money-trading-stocks-or-at-least-lose-less-11612771522?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1149038980","content_text":"I can hear the cries from investors who racked up huge profits in GameStop or AMC Entertainment Holdings for a few hours or days, only to watch their gains evaporate.\nThis coordinated bull raid was initiated by thousands of retail investors on Reddit, a popular website forum. We heard stories of fortunes made and lost. The ones we didn’t hear were from the folks in-between — small retail traders and investors who suffered thousands of dollars (or more) in losses.\nFor those still holding GME or AMC, or for those eager to pounce on the next volatile meme stock, I offer the following advice based on personal experience and observations. These are the lessons you must know before you ever get involved in the stock or options market (or if you are holding a winning stock or option):\n1. Don’t sell stocks or options on products you don’t own:The traders who lost the most money in GameStop and AMC were those who sold “naked” calls and puts (i.e. they sold options on stocks they didn’t own), or those who sold shares short (again, they sold shares on a stock they didn’t own). When using this extremely risky strategy, you can make a fortune if you’re right. If you’re wrong, the losses can be incalculable. In reality, some unwary traders lost tens of thousands of dollars last week on positions that cost a few thousand dollars. Once again, don’t sell anything naked unless you’re a professional, and in this case even the pros lost big on that risky bet.\n2. Sell at the “zero point.”  Here’s a rule I created: If you have huge gains that disappear and you are at the zero point (i.e. break-even), sell before you have real losses. It’s better to walk away at zero than with losses.\n3. Don’t be a stubborn seller:Why is it so hard for most traders to walk away at the zero point? Stubbornness. Many traders made huge gains last week only to watch those profits disappear. They refused to sell because they hoped to make their money back. If holding options, that’s not going to happen. (If you bought at or near the high, your money is gone. If you hold a stock, plan to wait months or even years to recover. Stubborn stockholders often end up as “stuckholders.”\n4. Take the money and run:When you are holding a stock or option position that brings outsized profits, either sell half of your holding or all of it — but get out. I call this “selling at extremes.” Sell something when the profits are beyond your wildest expectations. We all know the story of the gambler who wins big at the casino, but doesn’t leave the table until all his money is gone. Know when to walk away from the computer. Profits are fleeting, especially when volatility skyrockets.\n5.Trade small when making longshot trades (i.e. gambling):GameStop and AMC were both big gambles, and for a time the trade worked if you were long. But if you bet wrong? I spoke to a few of these traders. One lost $8,000 on a single option contract. If he had traded his normal size (30 contracts), he told me, his losses would have been more than $240,000.\n6. Don’t expect this trading frenzy to keep happening:It’s possible that a group of traders on the Reddit forum will band together for more bear- or bull raids. Except Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are most likely creating new rules to prevent this from repeating. The Fed hates volatility and will do everything in its power to keep the markets calm. So once again, when you make big money on a trade, take the money as fast as you can — because you may not get the chance again.\n7. Stop bragging about how much money you made: Many traders who won big immediately bragged on social media (and to their jealous friends) about how much money they made on this trade. Yet the euphoric feeling they had was temporary. It usually goes away after all the money is gone. The smart (and polite) traders took their gains and kept the win to themselves\n8. Use a time stop:Time stops are not well-known or popular, but with fast-moving stocks (or when trading options), they are invaluable. In an extremely fast market, the traditional stop-limit order won’t get filled, as many of those meme-stock traders found out the hard way. Instead, after making a huge profit, set a day or time to sell. For example, you may sell the position by Friday no matter what (although selling at extremes is better — see Rule #4).\n9. Sell half or all of the position:It’s never an easy decision to know when to sell. If you sell too early, it’s annoying to watch the stock go higher. Sell too late and you lose money. Selling half of your holding is a reasonable alternative, but you must be prepared to sell the other half if the position goes against you.\n10. Don’t seek revenge when you lose money on a stock:It’s common for traders to seek revenge on a stock they lost money on. Do not fall for this emotional trap. If you lost money on a stock, let it go and move on.\n11. Trade small after you made or lost big:If you’re feeling emotional about a stock, including feelings of anger or revenge, trade small. Many people who hit it big in the market can’t help but make bigger and bigger bets. Just like the gamblers at a casino, they keep trading until all their money is gone.\nYou don’t think it can happen to you? One of the greatest speculators in the world, Jesse Livermore, made $100 million dollars in a single week in 1929. He then lost all of his money within five years. He should have moved most of his profits out of the market after his big win and traded small for the next year. Instead, he got reckless and lost it all.\n12. Don’t take on too much risk:Never invest or trade with so much money that if you lost, you’d lose your house or 401(k). Brokers told me about clients who cleared out their retirement funds or took cash advances on their credit cards so they could buy GameStop and AMC. Some won, some lost, but many took on way too much risk.\nThe meme-stock pyramid scheme\nThose who traded GameStop, AMC and other meme stocks thought they were trading, but they were actually participating in a gigantic pyramid scheme. Those who got in early and got out early probably did well. Those who entered late or held too long lost money.\nMy advice: Review these 12 rules periodically. They are based on the experiences and the bad luck of thousands of other traders, including myself, who thought we were smarter than the market. In truth the market was smarter than us — because it always is.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128723431,"gmtCreate":1624532782123,"gmtModify":1634004798456,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"High risk high returns","listText":"High risk high returns","text":"High risk high returns","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128723431","repostId":"1112175042","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375848927,"gmtCreate":1619327088069,"gmtModify":1634274204089,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Exciting week as always-&nbsp;Please like!","listText":"Exciting week as always-&nbsp;Please like!","text":"Exciting week as always- Please like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375848927","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357616378,"gmtCreate":1617266759194,"gmtModify":1634521714946,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and share","listText":"Like and share","text":"Like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357616378","repostId":"2124022412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326683674,"gmtCreate":1615632925298,"gmtModify":1703491777139,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good things take time!&nbsp;","listText":"Good things take time!&nbsp;","text":"Good things take time!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326683674","repostId":"1100128328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100128328","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615563404,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100128328?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-12 23:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100128328","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stock inTesla is lower after CNBC reported that the electric-vehicle company had a firein its Fremon","content":"<p>Stock inTesla&nbsp;is lower after CNBC reported that the&nbsp;electric-vehicle&nbsp;company&nbsp;had a firein its Fremont, Calif. plant, but the blaze probably isn’t the reason for the dip.</p><p><blockquote>CNBC报道电动汽车公司特斯拉在加利福尼亚州弗里蒙特发生火灾后，该公司股价走低。植物，但大火可能不是下降的原因。</blockquote></p><p>Fires are just a normal, albeit unfortunate, operating problem for any manufacturer. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the fire or the damage it may have caused.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何制造商来说，火灾只是一个正常但不幸的操作问题。特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）没有立即回应有关火灾或火灾可能造成的损失的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p>President Joe Biden is probably responsible for the share-price decline, which left the stock about 2.7% lower in premarket trading, at about $680. It has beena wild weekfor Tesla stockholders. Shares started off the week at about $675,traded above $700and fell to about $560 before bounding back, up 4.7% Thursday, to just under $700.</p><p><blockquote>总统乔·拜登可能对股价下跌负有责任，该股在盘前交易中下跌约2.7%，至约680美元。对于特斯拉股东来说，这是疯狂的一周。本周初股价约为675美元，交易价格高于700美元，跌至约560美元，然后反弹，周四上涨4.7%，至略低于700美元。</blockquote></p><p>Nothing Tesla has done appears to be the reason for the recent volatility. It’s all about interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉所做的一切似乎都不是最近波动的原因。一切都与利率有关。</blockquote></p><p>That is where the president comes into the picture. Thursday evening, he addressed the nation, focusing on putting Covid-19 in the rearview mirror a year after the World Health Organization declared that a pandemic had begun.</p><p><blockquote>这就是总统发挥作用的地方。周四晚上，他向全国发表讲话，重点是在世界卫生组织宣布疫情已经开始一年后，将新冠肺炎(Covid-19)抛在脑后。</blockquote></p><p>“All adult Americans will be eligible to get a vaccine no later than May 1,” said the president, adding the federal government is setting up hundreds of vaccination sites and procuring millions more vaccine doses.</p><p><blockquote>总统说：“所有成年美国人都有资格在5月1日之前接种疫苗。”他补充说，联邦政府正在建立数百个疫苗接种点，并采购数百万剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>It’s good news, but the market is selling off Friday morning. For stocks, the speech represents almost too much of a good thing. The economy is reopening and, as a result,bond yields are rising, putting pressure on high-growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>这是个好消息，但周五早上市场正在抛售。对于股票来说，这次讲话几乎代表了太多的好事。经济正在重新开放，因此债券收益率正在上升，给高增长股票带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>Futures on the&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;Index, home to many highflying tech stocks, are down 1.6%.Dow Jones Industrial Averagefutures, on the other hand, are flat.</p><p><blockquote>拥有许多飙升的科技股的纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌1.6%。另一方面，道琼斯工业平均指数期货持平。</blockquote></p><p>Higher yields hurt richly valued, fast-growing companies more than others for a couple of reasons. One, they makes funding growth more expensive. Two, high- growth companies are expected generate most of their cash far in the future. That cash is a little less valuable in present terms when rates are high, compared with when rates are low. In a higher-rate environment, investors have more options to earn interest today, which puts pressure on high-growth stocks’ valuations.</p><p><blockquote>较高的收益率对估值高、快速增长的公司的伤害比其他公司更大，原因有几个。第一，它们使融资增长更加昂贵。第二，高增长公司预计将在未来产生大部分现金。与利率低时相比，利率高时现金的价值较低。在利率较高的环境下，投资者如今有更多赚取利息的选择，这给高增长股票的估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>A Friday dip, however,doesn’t mean the end&nbsp;of the bull market in Tesla, EV stocks or the Nasdaq. Getting the economy back on its feet is a good thing. Investors just need a chance to adjust to the changing landscape.</p><p><blockquote>然而，周五的下跌并不意味着特斯拉、电动汽车股票或纳斯达克牛市的结束。让经济重新站稳脚跟是件好事。投资者只是需要一个机会来适应不断变化的环境。</blockquote></p><p>“There’s a good chance you, your families and friends will be able to get together in your backyard or in your neighborhood and have a cookout …and celebrate Independence Day,” Biden said. That is great news.</p><p><blockquote>拜登说：“你、你的家人和朋友很有可能能够在你的后院或附近聚会，野餐……庆祝独立日。”这是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-12 23:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stock inTesla&nbsp;is lower after CNBC reported that the&nbsp;electric-vehicle&nbsp;company&nbsp;had a firein its Fremont, Calif. plant, but the blaze probably isn’t the reason for the dip.</p><p><blockquote>CNBC报道电动汽车公司特斯拉在加利福尼亚州弗里蒙特发生火灾后，该公司股价走低。植物，但大火可能不是下降的原因。</blockquote></p><p>Fires are just a normal, albeit unfortunate, operating problem for any manufacturer. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the fire or the damage it may have caused.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何制造商来说，火灾只是一个正常但不幸的操作问题。特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）没有立即回应有关火灾或火灾可能造成的损失的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p>President Joe Biden is probably responsible for the share-price decline, which left the stock about 2.7% lower in premarket trading, at about $680. It has beena wild weekfor Tesla stockholders. Shares started off the week at about $675,traded above $700and fell to about $560 before bounding back, up 4.7% Thursday, to just under $700.</p><p><blockquote>总统乔·拜登可能对股价下跌负有责任，该股在盘前交易中下跌约2.7%，至约680美元。对于特斯拉股东来说，这是疯狂的一周。本周初股价约为675美元，交易价格高于700美元，跌至约560美元，然后反弹，周四上涨4.7%，至略低于700美元。</blockquote></p><p>Nothing Tesla has done appears to be the reason for the recent volatility. It’s all about interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉所做的一切似乎都不是最近波动的原因。一切都与利率有关。</blockquote></p><p>That is where the president comes into the picture. Thursday evening, he addressed the nation, focusing on putting Covid-19 in the rearview mirror a year after the World Health Organization declared that a pandemic had begun.</p><p><blockquote>这就是总统发挥作用的地方。周四晚上，他向全国发表讲话，重点是在世界卫生组织宣布疫情已经开始一年后，将新冠肺炎(Covid-19)抛在脑后。</blockquote></p><p>“All adult Americans will be eligible to get a vaccine no later than May 1,” said the president, adding the federal government is setting up hundreds of vaccination sites and procuring millions more vaccine doses.</p><p><blockquote>总统说：“所有成年美国人都有资格在5月1日之前接种疫苗。”他补充说，联邦政府正在建立数百个疫苗接种点，并采购数百万剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>It’s good news, but the market is selling off Friday morning. For stocks, the speech represents almost too much of a good thing. The economy is reopening and, as a result,bond yields are rising, putting pressure on high-growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>这是个好消息，但周五早上市场正在抛售。对于股票来说，这次讲话几乎代表了太多的好事。经济正在重新开放，因此债券收益率正在上升，给高增长股票带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>Futures on the&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;Index, home to many highflying tech stocks, are down 1.6%.Dow Jones Industrial Averagefutures, on the other hand, are flat.</p><p><blockquote>拥有许多飙升的科技股的纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌1.6%。另一方面，道琼斯工业平均指数期货持平。</blockquote></p><p>Higher yields hurt richly valued, fast-growing companies more than others for a couple of reasons. One, they makes funding growth more expensive. Two, high- growth companies are expected generate most of their cash far in the future. That cash is a little less valuable in present terms when rates are high, compared with when rates are low. In a higher-rate environment, investors have more options to earn interest today, which puts pressure on high-growth stocks’ valuations.</p><p><blockquote>较高的收益率对估值高、快速增长的公司的伤害比其他公司更大，原因有几个。第一，它们使融资增长更加昂贵。第二，高增长公司预计将在未来产生大部分现金。与利率低时相比，利率高时现金的价值较低。在利率较高的环境下，投资者如今有更多赚取利息的选择，这给高增长股票的估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>A Friday dip, however,doesn’t mean the end&nbsp;of the bull market in Tesla, EV stocks or the Nasdaq. Getting the economy back on its feet is a good thing. Investors just need a chance to adjust to the changing landscape.</p><p><blockquote>然而，周五的下跌并不意味着特斯拉、电动汽车股票或纳斯达克牛市的结束。让经济重新站稳脚跟是件好事。投资者只是需要一个机会来适应不断变化的环境。</blockquote></p><p>“There’s a good chance you, your families and friends will be able to get together in your backyard or in your neighborhood and have a cookout …and celebrate Independence Day,” Biden said. That is great news.</p><p><blockquote>拜登说：“你、你的家人和朋友很有可能能够在你的后院或附近聚会，野餐……庆祝独立日。”这是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-is-down-you-could-blame-joe-biden-51615557806?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-is-down-you-could-blame-joe-biden-51615557806?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100128328","content_text":"Stock inTesla is lower after CNBC reported that the electric-vehicle company had a firein its Fremont, Calif. plant, but the blaze probably isn’t the reason for the dip.Fires are just a normal, albeit unfortunate, operating problem for any manufacturer. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the fire or the damage it may have caused.President Joe Biden is probably responsible for the share-price decline, which left the stock about 2.7% lower in premarket trading, at about $680. It has beena wild weekfor Tesla stockholders. Shares started off the week at about $675,traded above $700and fell to about $560 before bounding back, up 4.7% Thursday, to just under $700.Nothing Tesla has done appears to be the reason for the recent volatility. It’s all about interest rates.That is where the president comes into the picture. Thursday evening, he addressed the nation, focusing on putting Covid-19 in the rearview mirror a year after the World Health Organization declared that a pandemic had begun.“All adult Americans will be eligible to get a vaccine no later than May 1,” said the president, adding the federal government is setting up hundreds of vaccination sites and procuring millions more vaccine doses.It’s good news, but the market is selling off Friday morning. For stocks, the speech represents almost too much of a good thing. The economy is reopening and, as a result,bond yields are rising, putting pressure on high-growth stocks.Futures on the Nasdaq Composite Index, home to many highflying tech stocks, are down 1.6%.Dow Jones Industrial Averagefutures, on the other hand, are flat.Higher yields hurt richly valued, fast-growing companies more than others for a couple of reasons. One, they makes funding growth more expensive. Two, high- growth companies are expected generate most of their cash far in the future. That cash is a little less valuable in present terms when rates are high, compared with when rates are low. In a higher-rate environment, investors have more options to earn interest today, which puts pressure on high-growth stocks’ valuations.A Friday dip, however,doesn’t mean the end of the bull market in Tesla, EV stocks or the Nasdaq. Getting the economy back on its feet is a good thing. Investors just need a chance to adjust to the changing landscape.“There’s a good chance you, your families and friends will be able to get together in your backyard or in your neighborhood and have a cookout …and celebrate Independence Day,” Biden said. That is great news.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369334167,"gmtCreate":1614004116159,"gmtModify":1631889034256,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTEH\">$GenTech Holdings Inc.(GTEH)$</a>Please fly today","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTEH\">$GenTech Holdings Inc.(GTEH)$</a>Please fly today","text":"$GenTech Holdings Inc.(GTEH)$Please fly today","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69f9dc756eeacc57e04e863e654e8ad8","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369334167","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348575067,"gmtCreate":1617946935159,"gmtModify":1634295581479,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Watch inflation","listText":"Watch inflation","text":"Watch inflation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348575067","repostId":"1147517160","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355403662,"gmtCreate":1617092215056,"gmtModify":1634522705644,"author":{"id":"3574372894605246","authorId":"3574372894605246","name":"Jwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d01d52381d42f431b0fa8fb5ade3f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574372894605246","idStr":"3574372894605246"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BP - we will never know the works behind this, could be a close door manipulation / big contraction on oil demand&nbsp;","listText":"BP - we will never know the works behind this, could be a close door manipulation / big contraction on oil demand&nbsp;","text":"BP - we will never know the works behind this, could be a close door manipulation / big contraction on oil demand","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355403662","repostId":"1167302622","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}