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DavidLoh

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2021-05-10

$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$🥺🥺🥺

2021-04-30

Wow

Forget Dogecoin -- These Stocks Could Go to the Moon<blockquote>忘记狗狗币吧——这些股票可能会登上月球</blockquote>

2021-04-30

Hopefully a fly soon

NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For<blockquote>蔚来2021年第一季度收益报告预览：寻找什么</blockquote>

2021-05-13

Market is waiting

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-17

So far so good

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2021-06-15

Hi

Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>

2021-05-14

Like and comment yar

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2021-05-13

Like

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2021-05-13

Selling selling

Here Is The Heatmap From Today's "Eye-Popping" CPI Report<blockquote>这是今天“令人瞠目结舌”的CPI报告的热图</blockquote>

2021-07-07

$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$😪😪😪😪😪

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161083928","repostId":"2144713861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2995,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163012004,"gmtCreate":1623853295708,"gmtModify":1631891298558,"author":{"id":"3574387511172860","authorId":"3574387511172860","name":"DavidLoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e241027ed98c20cf6994afaebda97a3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387511172860","authorIdStr":"3574387511172860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163012004","repostId":"2143765794","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160915652,"gmtCreate":1623769122076,"gmtModify":1631891298560,"author":{"id":"3574387511172860","authorId":"3574387511172860","name":"DavidLoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e241027ed98c20cf6994afaebda97a3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387511172860","authorIdStr":"3574387511172860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160915652","repostId":"1163235288","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160915379,"gmtCreate":1623769106291,"gmtModify":1631892480638,"author":{"id":"3574387511172860","authorId":"3574387511172860","name":"DavidLoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e241027ed98c20cf6994afaebda97a3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387511172860","authorIdStr":"3574387511172860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160915379","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160913182,"gmtCreate":1623768952546,"gmtModify":1631883740037,"author":{"id":"3574387511172860","authorId":"3574387511172860","name":"DavidLoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e241027ed98c20cf6994afaebda97a3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387511172860","authorIdStr":"3574387511172860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics(OCGN)$</a>Waiting for you to fly","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics(OCGN)$</a>Waiting for you to fly","text":"$Histogenics(OCGN)$Waiting for you to 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V(IPOE)$</a>Finally something coming&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IPOE\">$Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp. V(IPOE)$</a>Finally something coming&nbsp;","text":"$Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp. V(IPOE)$Finally something coming","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93a27429c6c813a5c685ea1096d0afb9","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138466022","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":696,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197806405,"gmtCreate":1621437076107,"gmtModify":1631884838876,"author":{"id":"3574387511172860","authorId":"3574387511172860","name":"DavidLoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e241027ed98c20cf6994afaebda97a3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387511172860","authorIdStr":"3574387511172860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IPOE\">$Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp. V(IPOE)$</a>Moonnnnn","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IPOE\">$Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp. V(IPOE)$</a>Moonnnnn","text":"$Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp. V(IPOE)$Moonnnnn","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3876839e078d1b058c8cf7f6ca513b9","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197806405","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194857417,"gmtCreate":1621358682039,"gmtModify":1631892480646,"author":{"id":"3574387511172860","authorId":"3574387511172860","name":"DavidLoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e241027ed98c20cf6994afaebda97a3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387511172860","authorIdStr":"3574387511172860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon 😎😎","listText":"To the moon 😎😎","text":"To the moon 😎😎","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1910fe2d6b055f53bc8a390586aaca","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194857417","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198464265,"gmtCreate":1620982149557,"gmtModify":1631892480659,"author":{"id":"3574387511172860","authorId":"3574387511172860","name":"DavidLoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e241027ed98c20cf6994afaebda97a3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387511172860","authorIdStr":"3574387511172860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment yar","listText":"Like and comment yar","text":"Like and comment yar","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198464265","repostId":"2135945620","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":190767112,"gmtCreate":1620653932236,"gmtModify":1634197397101,"author":{"id":"3574387511172860","authorId":"3574387511172860","name":"DavidLoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e241027ed98c20cf6994afaebda97a3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387511172860","idStr":"3574387511172860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$</a>🥺🥺🥺","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$</a>🥺🥺🥺","text":"$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$🥺🥺🥺","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2825d6536cdb9b1e88fdbb1dd977491","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190767112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109710740,"gmtCreate":1619728268480,"gmtModify":1634210455390,"author":{"id":"3574387511172860","authorId":"3574387511172860","name":"DavidLoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e241027ed98c20cf6994afaebda97a3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387511172860","idStr":"3574387511172860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109710740","repostId":"1129981735","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129981735","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619709258,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129981735?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-29 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Dogecoin -- These Stocks Could Go to the Moon<blockquote>忘记狗狗币吧——这些股票可能会登上月球</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129981735","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The cryptocurrency market has received a ton of attention recently. Since these assets don't produce","content":"<p>The cryptocurrency market has received a ton of attention recently. Since these assets don't produce any cash like regular businesses aim to, speculators can't value them in any traditional sense. But the power of social media can send some digital currencies, like<b>Dogecoin</b>, soaring astronomically for no real reason at all.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币市场最近受到了大量关注。由于这些资产不像常规企业的目标那样产生任何现金，投机者无法以任何传统意义对它们进行估值。但是社交媒体的力量可以发送一些数字货币，比如<b>狗狗币</b>，毫无真正原因地以天文数字的速度飙升。</blockquote></p><p> It's not surprising that younger people in particular are attracted to cryptocurrencies. They view the digital assets as a way to get rich quickly, which is really nothing more than gambling. This could end badly for these folks.</p><p><blockquote>年轻人尤其被加密货币所吸引，这并不奇怪。他们将数字资产视为快速致富的一种方式，这实际上无非是赌博。这对这些人来说可能会有不好的结局。</blockquote></p><p> Over the long term, however, thestock markethas been shown to be an excellent tool for building sustainable wealth. So forget the useless meme cryptocurrency that is Dogecoin and focus instead on these two high-potential, high-growth companies that can make you rich over time.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从长远来看，股票市场已被证明是积累可持续财富的绝佳工具。因此，忘记狗狗币这种无用的迷因加密货币，而是专注于这两家高潜力、高增长的公司，随着时间的推移，它们可以让你变得富有。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d808fa5b40122dbb1f01f1141c2464\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Etsy</p><p><blockquote>1.Etsy</blockquote></p><p> <b>Etsy</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:ETSY)is an e-commerce platform where shoppers go to find unique, handcrafted items they can't find anywhere else. With operations now insevendifferent countries, the company empowers entrepreneurs to follow their passions by helping them grow their small businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>Etsy</b>（纳斯达克：ETSY）是一个电子商务平台，购物者可以在这里找到他们在其他地方找不到的独特的手工制品。该公司目前在七个不同的国家开展业务，通过帮助企业家发展小企业，让他们能够追随自己的激情。</blockquote></p><p> The success of Etsy's 4.4million&nbsp;sellersis&nbsp;noteworthy. In the U.S., for example, these domestic sellers added $13billion&nbsp;of GDP to the economy and created 2.6 million jobs. But the value proposition is also significant for Etsy's 81.9million&nbsp;buyers. In a company survey conducted last year, an eye-popping 88%of buyers agreed that Etsy had goods they couldn't find anywhere else.</p><p><blockquote>Etsy 440万卖家的成功值得注意。例如，在美国，这些国内卖家为经济增加了130亿美元的GDP，创造了260万个就业机会。但这一价值主张对于Etsy的8190万买家来说也很重要。在去年进行的一项公司调查中，令人瞠目结舌的88%的买家同意Etsy拥有他们在其他地方找不到的商品。</blockquote></p><p> Although Etsy's marketplace has been expanding rapidly for many years, the onset of the pandemic led sales to skyrocket 111% in 2020 compared to 2019. Consumers flocked to the website last spring to purchase masks, but the company's largest productcategories&nbsp;during the year were home furnishings, personal accessories, and craft supplies.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Etsy的市场多年来一直在快速扩张，但疫情的爆发导致2020年销售额比2019年猛增111%。去年春天，消费者纷纷涌向该网站购买口罩，但该公司当年最大的产品类别是家居用品、个人配饰和工艺用品。</blockquote></p><p> Etsy truly does offer a differentiated service and experience for both its sellers and buyers. Both groups understand the value they receive, which should support the company's growth for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>Etsy确实为卖家和买家提供了差异化的服务和体验。两个集团都了解他们获得的价值，这应该会支持公司未来许多年的发展。</blockquote></p><p> Because Etsy is a marketplace business (it simply connects buyers and sellers and owns no inventory itself), profits can soar even faster than the top line. In 2020, net income increased 264%&nbsp;from the prior year, something shareholders can appreciate.</p><p><blockquote>由于Etsy是一家市场业务（它只是连接买家和卖家，本身不拥有库存），因此利润飙升的速度甚至比营收还要快。2020年，净利润较上年增长264%，这是股东可以欣赏的。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes the market for \"special\" goods (what Etsy is known for) is roughly $100billion&nbsp;in its six core markets (not including India). Based on $10.3billion&nbsp;in gross merchandise sales (GMS) last year, that's 10% of the total market. If we include the massive opportunity in India, it's easy to see how much room Etsy still has to grow.</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为，在其六个核心市场（不包括印度），“特殊”商品（Etsy以其闻名）的市场约为1000亿美元。根据去年103亿美元的商品销售总额(GMS)计算，这占整个市场的10%。如果我们包括印度的巨大机遇，很容易看出Etsy仍有多大的增长空间。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Roku</p><p><blockquote>2.Roku</blockquote></p><p> Besides exciting growth,<b>Roku</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:ROKU)has two similarities to Etsy: It's a platform business, and it's also benefiting from a strong secular trend, this time in streaming entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>除了令人振奋的增长，<b>Roku</b>（纳斯达克：ROKU）与Etsy有两个相似之处：它是一家平台业务，而且它也受益于强劲的长期趋势，这次是在流媒体娱乐领域。</blockquote></p><p> Roku's licensed smart TVs and connected devices bring together viewers, streaming companies, and advertisers. It seems like the number of streaming services out there continues to rise, so this is a way for consumers to have all of their options in one place.</p><p><blockquote>Roku的授权智能电视和联网设备将观众、流媒体公司和广告商聚集在一起。流媒体服务的数量似乎在持续上升，所以这是消费者在一个地方拥有所有选择的一种方式。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, the fact that 70%of streaming is watched on TVs makes Roku a strategic partner for content companies looking to reach more customers and advertisers that want to target these same customers as traditional cable TV keeps declining.</p><p><blockquote>此外，70%的流媒体是在电视上观看的，这一事实使Roku成为内容公司的战略合作伙伴，这些公司希望接触更多客户，而广告商希望在传统有线电视不断衰落的情况下瞄准这些客户。</blockquote></p><p> Roku's ecosystem is a win-win-win for all parties, and the pandemic's acceleration of streaming only cemented this. Revenue in the most recent quarter (ended Dec. 31st) rose 58% year-over-year, with activeaccountsnow totaling 51.2 million. Engagement is also through the roof -- those accounts watched a whopping 17 billion hours of shows and movies in the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>Roku的生态系统对各方来说是双赢的，而疫情对流媒体的加速只是巩固了这一点。最近一个季度（截至12月31日）的收入同比增长58%，目前活跃账户总数为5120万。参与度也很高——这些账户在本季度观看了高达170亿小时的节目和电影。</blockquote></p><p> Asthe business continues to scale up, the gross and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margins expand meaningfully. The latter figure was 17.5%&nbsp;last quarter, a big uptick from being negative just two quarters earlier.</p><p><blockquote>随着业务规模的不断扩大，毛利率和调整后EBITDA（息税折旧摊销前利润）大幅扩大。后者上季度为17.5%，较两个季度前的负值大幅上升。</blockquote></p><p> It looks as though streaming is the way everyone will consume video in the future, and Roku stands to gain tremendously from this.</p><p><blockquote>看起来流媒体似乎是未来每个人消费视频的方式，Roku将从中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p> Focus on what matters</p><p><blockquote>专注于重要的事情</blockquote></p><p> Unlike Dogecoin, Etsy and Roku are two legitimate business operations. They have huge expansion opportunities, which are further bolstered by their platform structures and network effects. And both deliver significant value to the various groups of users they serve.</p><p><blockquote>与狗狗币不同，Etsy和Roku是两家合法的商业运营。他们拥有巨大的扩张机会，这得益于他们的平台结构和网络效应。两者都为它们所服务的各种用户群体提供了巨大的价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Some of the most successful and fastest-growing companies in recent times all have this trait, making it one of the best business models investors want to own. Forget about the latest cryptocurrency craze. Instead, stash your money in these stocks and be patient and willing to hold for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>近年来一些最成功、发展最快的公司都具有这一特征，使其成为投资者希望拥有的最佳商业模式之一。忘掉最近的加密货币热潮吧。相反，将您的资金存放在这些股票中，并保持耐心并愿意长期持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forget Dogecoin -- These Stocks Could Go to the Moon<blockquote>忘记狗狗币吧——这些股票可能会登上月球</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Dogecoin -- These Stocks Could Go to the Moon<blockquote>忘记狗狗币吧——这些股票可能会登上月球</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 23:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The cryptocurrency market has received a ton of attention recently. Since these assets don't produce any cash like regular businesses aim to, speculators can't value them in any traditional sense. But the power of social media can send some digital currencies, like<b>Dogecoin</b>, soaring astronomically for no real reason at all.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币市场最近受到了大量关注。由于这些资产不像常规企业的目标那样产生任何现金，投机者无法以任何传统意义对它们进行估值。但是社交媒体的力量可以发送一些数字货币，比如<b>狗狗币</b>，毫无真正原因地以天文数字的速度飙升。</blockquote></p><p> It's not surprising that younger people in particular are attracted to cryptocurrencies. They view the digital assets as a way to get rich quickly, which is really nothing more than gambling. This could end badly for these folks.</p><p><blockquote>年轻人尤其被加密货币所吸引，这并不奇怪。他们将数字资产视为快速致富的一种方式，这实际上无非是赌博。这对这些人来说可能会有不好的结局。</blockquote></p><p> Over the long term, however, thestock markethas been shown to be an excellent tool for building sustainable wealth. So forget the useless meme cryptocurrency that is Dogecoin and focus instead on these two high-potential, high-growth companies that can make you rich over time.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从长远来看，股票市场已被证明是积累可持续财富的绝佳工具。因此，忘记狗狗币这种无用的迷因加密货币，而是专注于这两家高潜力、高增长的公司，随着时间的推移，它们可以让你变得富有。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d808fa5b40122dbb1f01f1141c2464\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Etsy</p><p><blockquote>1.Etsy</blockquote></p><p> <b>Etsy</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:ETSY)is an e-commerce platform where shoppers go to find unique, handcrafted items they can't find anywhere else. With operations now insevendifferent countries, the company empowers entrepreneurs to follow their passions by helping them grow their small businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>Etsy</b>（纳斯达克：ETSY）是一个电子商务平台，购物者可以在这里找到他们在其他地方找不到的独特的手工制品。该公司目前在七个不同的国家开展业务，通过帮助企业家发展小企业，让他们能够追随自己的激情。</blockquote></p><p> The success of Etsy's 4.4million&nbsp;sellersis&nbsp;noteworthy. In the U.S., for example, these domestic sellers added $13billion&nbsp;of GDP to the economy and created 2.6 million jobs. But the value proposition is also significant for Etsy's 81.9million&nbsp;buyers. In a company survey conducted last year, an eye-popping 88%of buyers agreed that Etsy had goods they couldn't find anywhere else.</p><p><blockquote>Etsy 440万卖家的成功值得注意。例如，在美国，这些国内卖家为经济增加了130亿美元的GDP，创造了260万个就业机会。但这一价值主张对于Etsy的8190万买家来说也很重要。在去年进行的一项公司调查中，令人瞠目结舌的88%的买家同意Etsy拥有他们在其他地方找不到的商品。</blockquote></p><p> Although Etsy's marketplace has been expanding rapidly for many years, the onset of the pandemic led sales to skyrocket 111% in 2020 compared to 2019. Consumers flocked to the website last spring to purchase masks, but the company's largest productcategories&nbsp;during the year were home furnishings, personal accessories, and craft supplies.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Etsy的市场多年来一直在快速扩张，但疫情的爆发导致2020年销售额比2019年猛增111%。去年春天，消费者纷纷涌向该网站购买口罩，但该公司当年最大的产品类别是家居用品、个人配饰和工艺用品。</blockquote></p><p> Etsy truly does offer a differentiated service and experience for both its sellers and buyers. Both groups understand the value they receive, which should support the company's growth for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>Etsy确实为卖家和买家提供了差异化的服务和体验。两个集团都了解他们获得的价值，这应该会支持公司未来许多年的发展。</blockquote></p><p> Because Etsy is a marketplace business (it simply connects buyers and sellers and owns no inventory itself), profits can soar even faster than the top line. In 2020, net income increased 264%&nbsp;from the prior year, something shareholders can appreciate.</p><p><blockquote>由于Etsy是一家市场业务（它只是连接买家和卖家，本身不拥有库存），因此利润飙升的速度甚至比营收还要快。2020年，净利润较上年增长264%，这是股东可以欣赏的。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes the market for \"special\" goods (what Etsy is known for) is roughly $100billion&nbsp;in its six core markets (not including India). Based on $10.3billion&nbsp;in gross merchandise sales (GMS) last year, that's 10% of the total market. If we include the massive opportunity in India, it's easy to see how much room Etsy still has to grow.</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为，在其六个核心市场（不包括印度），“特殊”商品（Etsy以其闻名）的市场约为1000亿美元。根据去年103亿美元的商品销售总额(GMS)计算，这占整个市场的10%。如果我们包括印度的巨大机遇，很容易看出Etsy仍有多大的增长空间。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Roku</p><p><blockquote>2.Roku</blockquote></p><p> Besides exciting growth,<b>Roku</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:ROKU)has two similarities to Etsy: It's a platform business, and it's also benefiting from a strong secular trend, this time in streaming entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>除了令人振奋的增长，<b>Roku</b>（纳斯达克：ROKU）与Etsy有两个相似之处：它是一家平台业务，而且它也受益于强劲的长期趋势，这次是在流媒体娱乐领域。</blockquote></p><p> Roku's licensed smart TVs and connected devices bring together viewers, streaming companies, and advertisers. It seems like the number of streaming services out there continues to rise, so this is a way for consumers to have all of their options in one place.</p><p><blockquote>Roku的授权智能电视和联网设备将观众、流媒体公司和广告商聚集在一起。流媒体服务的数量似乎在持续上升，所以这是消费者在一个地方拥有所有选择的一种方式。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, the fact that 70%of streaming is watched on TVs makes Roku a strategic partner for content companies looking to reach more customers and advertisers that want to target these same customers as traditional cable TV keeps declining.</p><p><blockquote>此外，70%的流媒体是在电视上观看的，这一事实使Roku成为内容公司的战略合作伙伴，这些公司希望接触更多客户，而广告商希望在传统有线电视不断衰落的情况下瞄准这些客户。</blockquote></p><p> Roku's ecosystem is a win-win-win for all parties, and the pandemic's acceleration of streaming only cemented this. Revenue in the most recent quarter (ended Dec. 31st) rose 58% year-over-year, with activeaccountsnow totaling 51.2 million. Engagement is also through the roof -- those accounts watched a whopping 17 billion hours of shows and movies in the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>Roku的生态系统对各方来说是双赢的，而疫情对流媒体的加速只是巩固了这一点。最近一个季度（截至12月31日）的收入同比增长58%，目前活跃账户总数为5120万。参与度也很高——这些账户在本季度观看了高达170亿小时的节目和电影。</blockquote></p><p> Asthe business continues to scale up, the gross and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margins expand meaningfully. The latter figure was 17.5%&nbsp;last quarter, a big uptick from being negative just two quarters earlier.</p><p><blockquote>随着业务规模的不断扩大，毛利率和调整后EBITDA（息税折旧摊销前利润）大幅扩大。后者上季度为17.5%，较两个季度前的负值大幅上升。</blockquote></p><p> It looks as though streaming is the way everyone will consume video in the future, and Roku stands to gain tremendously from this.</p><p><blockquote>看起来流媒体似乎是未来每个人消费视频的方式，Roku将从中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p> Focus on what matters</p><p><blockquote>专注于重要的事情</blockquote></p><p> Unlike Dogecoin, Etsy and Roku are two legitimate business operations. They have huge expansion opportunities, which are further bolstered by their platform structures and network effects. And both deliver significant value to the various groups of users they serve.</p><p><blockquote>与狗狗币不同，Etsy和Roku是两家合法的商业运营。他们拥有巨大的扩张机会，这得益于他们的平台结构和网络效应。两者都为它们所服务的各种用户群体提供了巨大的价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Some of the most successful and fastest-growing companies in recent times all have this trait, making it one of the best business models investors want to own. Forget about the latest cryptocurrency craze. Instead, stash your money in these stocks and be patient and willing to hold for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>近年来一些最成功、发展最快的公司都具有这一特征，使其成为投资者希望拥有的最佳商业模式之一。忘掉最近的加密货币热潮吧。相反，将您的资金存放在这些股票中，并保持耐心并愿意长期持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/29/forget-dogecoin-these-stocks-could-go-to-the-moon/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ROKU":"Roku Inc","ETSY":"Etsy, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/29/forget-dogecoin-these-stocks-could-go-to-the-moon/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129981735","content_text":"The cryptocurrency market has received a ton of attention recently. Since these assets don't produce any cash like regular businesses aim to, speculators can't value them in any traditional sense. But the power of social media can send some digital currencies, likeDogecoin, soaring astronomically for no real reason at all.\nIt's not surprising that younger people in particular are attracted to cryptocurrencies. They view the digital assets as a way to get rich quickly, which is really nothing more than gambling. This could end badly for these folks.\nOver the long term, however, thestock markethas been shown to be an excellent tool for building sustainable wealth. So forget the useless meme cryptocurrency that is Dogecoin and focus instead on these two high-potential, high-growth companies that can make you rich over time.\n\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Etsy\nEtsy (NASDAQ:ETSY)is an e-commerce platform where shoppers go to find unique, handcrafted items they can't find anywhere else. With operations now insevendifferent countries, the company empowers entrepreneurs to follow their passions by helping them grow their small businesses.\nThe success of Etsy's 4.4million sellersis noteworthy. In the U.S., for example, these domestic sellers added $13billion of GDP to the economy and created 2.6 million jobs. But the value proposition is also significant for Etsy's 81.9million buyers. In a company survey conducted last year, an eye-popping 88%of buyers agreed that Etsy had goods they couldn't find anywhere else.\nAlthough Etsy's marketplace has been expanding rapidly for many years, the onset of the pandemic led sales to skyrocket 111% in 2020 compared to 2019. Consumers flocked to the website last spring to purchase masks, but the company's largest productcategories during the year were home furnishings, personal accessories, and craft supplies.\nEtsy truly does offer a differentiated service and experience for both its sellers and buyers. Both groups understand the value they receive, which should support the company's growth for many years to come.\nBecause Etsy is a marketplace business (it simply connects buyers and sellers and owns no inventory itself), profits can soar even faster than the top line. In 2020, net income increased 264% from the prior year, something shareholders can appreciate.\nManagement believes the market for \"special\" goods (what Etsy is known for) is roughly $100billion in its six core markets (not including India). Based on $10.3billion in gross merchandise sales (GMS) last year, that's 10% of the total market. If we include the massive opportunity in India, it's easy to see how much room Etsy still has to grow.\n2. Roku\nBesides exciting growth,Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU)has two similarities to Etsy: It's a platform business, and it's also benefiting from a strong secular trend, this time in streaming entertainment.\nRoku's licensed smart TVs and connected devices bring together viewers, streaming companies, and advertisers. It seems like the number of streaming services out there continues to rise, so this is a way for consumers to have all of their options in one place.\nFurthermore, the fact that 70%of streaming is watched on TVs makes Roku a strategic partner for content companies looking to reach more customers and advertisers that want to target these same customers as traditional cable TV keeps declining.\nRoku's ecosystem is a win-win-win for all parties, and the pandemic's acceleration of streaming only cemented this. Revenue in the most recent quarter (ended Dec. 31st) rose 58% year-over-year, with activeaccountsnow totaling 51.2 million. Engagement is also through the roof -- those accounts watched a whopping 17 billion hours of shows and movies in the quarter.\nAsthe business continues to scale up, the gross and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margins expand meaningfully. The latter figure was 17.5% last quarter, a big uptick from being negative just two quarters earlier.\nIt looks as though streaming is the way everyone will consume video in the future, and Roku stands to gain tremendously from this.\nFocus on what matters\nUnlike Dogecoin, Etsy and Roku are two legitimate business operations. They have huge expansion opportunities, which are further bolstered by their platform structures and network effects. And both deliver significant value to the various groups of users they serve.\nSome of the most successful and fastest-growing companies in recent times all have this trait, making it one of the best business models investors want to own. Forget about the latest cryptocurrency craze. Instead, stash your money in these stocks and be patient and willing to hold for the long term.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ETSY":0.9,"ROKU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109710818,"gmtCreate":1619728083834,"gmtModify":1634210455834,"author":{"id":"3574387511172860","authorId":"3574387511172860","name":"DavidLoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e241027ed98c20cf6994afaebda97a3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387511172860","idStr":"3574387511172860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hopefully a fly soon","listText":"Hopefully a fly soon","text":"Hopefully a fly soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109710818","repostId":"1183966356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183966356","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619665696,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183966356?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-29 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For<blockquote>蔚来2021年第一季度收益报告预览：寻找什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183966356","media":"InvestoPedia","summary":"Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.NIO Inc. , like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles . NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record ve","content":"<p>Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries</p><p><blockquote>聚焦蔚来汽车交付</blockquote></p><p> <b>KEY TAKEAWAYS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.</li>  <li>Vehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.</li>  <li>Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.</li> </ul> NIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>分析师预计2020财年第一季度每股美国存托凭证收益为-0.72元，而2020财年第一季度为-1.66元。</li><li>已经宣布的车辆交付量同比大幅增长。</li><li>随着汽车销量的扩大，收入预计将飙升。</li></ul>蔚来（蔚来）和许多其他汽车制造商一样，由于全球半导体短缺，今年被迫停产。广泛用于智能手机、计算机和其他电子设备的半导体芯片对于高端电动汽车(EV)制造商蔚来尤为重要。蔚来3月下旬的停产对该公司第一季度创纪录的汽车交付量影响不大，但可能会影响未来的产量。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.</p><p><blockquote>当蔚来于2021年4月29日公布2021财年第一季度收益时，投资者将关注这些力量如何影响该公司的近期业绩及其财务前景。分析师预计该公司每股美国存托股(ADS)亏损将随着收入快速扩张而显着收窄。</blockquote></p><p> Vehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.</p><p><blockquote>车辆交付量是投资者关注的另一个关键指标，以衡量公司的生产能力。蔚来本月早些时候已经公布了第一季度的汽车交付量，尽管总交付量略低于预期，但仍创下了新的季度纪录。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&amp;P 500's total return of 45.5%.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年，蔚来的股价大幅跑赢大盘。但在今年早些时候达到历史高点后，该股大幅下跌，自3月初以来一直横盘整理。过去一年，蔚来的股票为投资者带来了1,171.9%的天文数字总回报率，远高于标普500 45.5%的总回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11e1a915810ccbc7f07ec2adf16865b\" tg-width=\"3004\" tg-height=\"1798\"><span>Source: TradingView.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Earnings History</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来盈利历史</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's&nbsp;Q4 FY 2020 earnings&nbsp;report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its&nbsp;gross margin&nbsp;rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该股在2月中旬左右见顶后一直在积聚下行动力，在蔚来3月初发布2020财年第四季度收益报告后暴跌。该公司报告的每股美国存托凭证亏损远高于分析师预期，收入也低于预期。不过，蔚来的亏损较去年同期大幅收窄，营收仍增长133.2%。该公司对其业绩持乐观态度，指出其毛利率升至17.2%，而去年同期为负8.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.</p><p><blockquote>2020财年第三季度，蔚来每股美国存托凭证亏损0.98元人民币（按2021年4月27日人民币/美元汇率计算为0.15美元）。这是至少11个季度以来的最小亏损。收入增长146.4%，保持了第二季度的增长速度。蔚来表示，其交付的车辆数量创历史新高，平均售价也有所提高。该公司还表示，这是连续第二个季度经营活动现金流为正。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计蔚来2021财年第一季度的财务业绩将持续改善。虽然蔚来预计仍将再次出现每股美国存托凭证亏损，但估计将是至少14个季度以来的最低水平。该季度收入预计将增长446.1%，这将是自2019财年第二季度以来的最快增速。对于2021财年全年，分析师目前预计蔚来将实现每股ADS亏损2.72元，这将是至少五年来的最小亏损。收入预计将增长109.7%，增速快于过去两年的每年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d412a9c0aea28621f713f5afbfba444c\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：可见阿尔法；蔚来</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Key Metric</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键指标</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，投资者也在关注蔚来每个季度交付的汽车数量。蔚来从其提供的各种服务中获得一些收入，但大部分收入来自汽车销售。目前，该公司交付三种类型的车辆：ES8，该公司的6座和7座旗舰高端智能电动SUV；该公司的5座高性能高级智能电动SUV ES6；以及该公司的5座高级电动轿跑车SUV EC6。汽车交付数量表明了对蔚来汽车的需求以及该公司扩大生产的能力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在过去几年中大幅提高了产量。该公司在2018财年交付了11,350辆汽车。2020财年，这一数字几乎翻了两番，交付了43,730辆汽车。尽管2020财年第一季度因COVID-19大流行而放缓，但蔚来很快弥补了第一季度交付量的下降，2020财年第二季度同比增长190.8%。第三季度汽车交付总量增速放缓至154.3%，第四季度放缓至111.0%。然而，如上所述，2021财年第一季度的车辆交付量增长了423.0%，创下了新的季度纪录。对于2021财年全年，分析师预测蔚来将交付88,280辆汽车，这将是去年总交付量的两倍多。然而，蔚来在3月初警告投资者，全球芯片短缺很可能会削减其产能，至少在第二季度是这样。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606203311635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For<blockquote>蔚来2021年第一季度收益报告预览：寻找什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For<blockquote>蔚来2021年第一季度收益报告预览：寻找什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestoPedia</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 11:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries</p><p><blockquote>聚焦蔚来汽车交付</blockquote></p><p> <b>KEY TAKEAWAYS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.</li>  <li>Vehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.</li>  <li>Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.</li> </ul> NIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>分析师预计2020财年第一季度每股美国存托凭证收益为-0.72元，而2020财年第一季度为-1.66元。</li><li>已经宣布的车辆交付量同比大幅增长。</li><li>随着汽车销量的扩大，收入预计将飙升。</li></ul>蔚来（蔚来）和许多其他汽车制造商一样，由于全球半导体短缺，今年被迫停产。广泛用于智能手机、计算机和其他电子设备的半导体芯片对于高端电动汽车(EV)制造商蔚来尤为重要。蔚来3月下旬的停产对该公司第一季度创纪录的汽车交付量影响不大，但可能会影响未来的产量。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.</p><p><blockquote>当蔚来于2021年4月29日公布2021财年第一季度收益时，投资者将关注这些力量如何影响该公司的近期业绩及其财务前景。分析师预计该公司每股美国存托股(ADS)亏损将随着收入快速扩张而显着收窄。</blockquote></p><p> Vehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.</p><p><blockquote>车辆交付量是投资者关注的另一个关键指标，以衡量公司的生产能力。蔚来本月早些时候已经公布了第一季度的汽车交付量，尽管总交付量略低于预期，但仍创下了新的季度纪录。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&amp;P 500's total return of 45.5%.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年，蔚来的股价大幅跑赢大盘。但在今年早些时候达到历史高点后，该股大幅下跌，自3月初以来一直横盘整理。过去一年，蔚来的股票为投资者带来了1,171.9%的天文数字总回报率，远高于标普500 45.5%的总回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11e1a915810ccbc7f07ec2adf16865b\" tg-width=\"3004\" tg-height=\"1798\"><span>Source: TradingView.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Earnings History</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来盈利历史</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's&nbsp;Q4 FY 2020 earnings&nbsp;report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its&nbsp;gross margin&nbsp;rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该股在2月中旬左右见顶后一直在积聚下行动力，在蔚来3月初发布2020财年第四季度收益报告后暴跌。该公司报告的每股美国存托凭证亏损远高于分析师预期，收入也低于预期。不过，蔚来的亏损较去年同期大幅收窄，营收仍增长133.2%。该公司对其业绩持乐观态度，指出其毛利率升至17.2%，而去年同期为负8.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.</p><p><blockquote>2020财年第三季度，蔚来每股美国存托凭证亏损0.98元人民币（按2021年4月27日人民币/美元汇率计算为0.15美元）。这是至少11个季度以来的最小亏损。收入增长146.4%，保持了第二季度的增长速度。蔚来表示，其交付的车辆数量创历史新高，平均售价也有所提高。该公司还表示，这是连续第二个季度经营活动现金流为正。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计蔚来2021财年第一季度的财务业绩将持续改善。虽然蔚来预计仍将再次出现每股美国存托凭证亏损，但估计将是至少14个季度以来的最低水平。该季度收入预计将增长446.1%，这将是自2019财年第二季度以来的最快增速。对于2021财年全年，分析师目前预计蔚来将实现每股ADS亏损2.72元，这将是至少五年来的最小亏损。收入预计将增长109.7%，增速快于过去两年的每年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d412a9c0aea28621f713f5afbfba444c\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：可见阿尔法；蔚来</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Key Metric</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键指标</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，投资者也在关注蔚来每个季度交付的汽车数量。蔚来从其提供的各种服务中获得一些收入，但大部分收入来自汽车销售。目前，该公司交付三种类型的车辆：ES8，该公司的6座和7座旗舰高端智能电动SUV；该公司的5座高性能高级智能电动SUV ES6；以及该公司的5座高级电动轿跑车SUV EC6。汽车交付数量表明了对蔚来汽车的需求以及该公司扩大生产的能力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在过去几年中大幅提高了产量。该公司在2018财年交付了11,350辆汽车。2020财年，这一数字几乎翻了两番，交付了43,730辆汽车。尽管2020财年第一季度因COVID-19大流行而放缓，但蔚来很快弥补了第一季度交付量的下降，2020财年第二季度同比增长190.8%。第三季度汽车交付总量增速放缓至154.3%，第四季度放缓至111.0%。然而，如上所述，2021财年第一季度的车辆交付量增长了423.0%，创下了新的季度纪录。对于2021财年全年，分析师预测蔚来将交付88,280辆汽车，这将是去年总交付量的两倍多。然而，蔚来在3月初警告投资者，全球芯片短缺很可能会削减其产能，至少在第二季度是这样。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991\">InvestoPedia</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183966356","content_text":"Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries\nKEY TAKEAWAYS\n\nAnalysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.\nVehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.\nRevenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.\n\nNIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.\nInvestors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.\nVehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.\nShares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&P 500's total return of 45.5%.\nSource: TradingView.\nNIO Earnings History\nThe stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's Q4 FY 2020 earnings report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its gross margin rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.\nIn Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.\nAnalysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.\nSource: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.\nThe Key Metric\nAs mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.\nNIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198947555,"gmtCreate":1620921256377,"gmtModify":1631892480684,"author":{"id":"3574387511172860","authorId":"3574387511172860","name":"DavidLoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e241027ed98c20cf6994afaebda97a3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387511172860","idStr":"3574387511172860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market is waiting","listText":"Market is waiting","text":"Market is waiting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198947555","repostId":"1198935836","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161083928,"gmtCreate":1623896441064,"gmtModify":1631891298554,"author":{"id":"3574387511172860","authorId":"3574387511172860","name":"DavidLoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e241027ed98c20cf6994afaebda97a3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387511172860","idStr":"3574387511172860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So far so good","listText":"So far so good","text":"So far so good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161083928","repostId":"2144713861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2995,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160915379,"gmtCreate":1623769106291,"gmtModify":1631892480638,"author":{"id":"3574387511172860","authorId":"3574387511172860","name":"DavidLoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e241027ed98c20cf6994afaebda97a3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387511172860","idStr":"3574387511172860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160915379","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198464265,"gmtCreate":1620982149557,"gmtModify":1631892480659,"author":{"id":"3574387511172860","authorId":"3574387511172860","name":"DavidLoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e241027ed98c20cf6994afaebda97a3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387511172860","idStr":"3574387511172860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment yar","listText":"Like and comment yar","text":"Like and comment yar","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198464265","repostId":"2135945620","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198947001,"gmtCreate":1620921228203,"gmtModify":1631892480704,"author":{"id":"3574387511172860","authorId":"3574387511172860","name":"DavidLoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e241027ed98c20cf6994afaebda97a3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387511172860","idStr":"3574387511172860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198947001","repostId":"1116555518","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191958343,"gmtCreate":1620836119582,"gmtModify":1631892480749,"author":{"id":"3574387511172860","authorId":"3574387511172860","name":"DavidLoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e241027ed98c20cf6994afaebda97a3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387511172860","idStr":"3574387511172860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Selling selling","listText":"Selling selling","text":"Selling selling","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191958343","repostId":"1170539751","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170539751","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620833723,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170539751?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-12 23:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here Is The Heatmap From Today's \"Eye-Popping\" CPI Report<blockquote>这是今天“令人瞠目结舌”的CPI报告的热图</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170539751","media":"zerohedge","summary":"As BOfA economist Alexander Lin writes, the \"eye-popping\" April CPI report was a \"massive surprise\" ","content":"<p>As BOfA economist Alexander Lin writes, the \"eye-popping\" April CPI report was a \"massive surprise\" as core CPI strongly rose 0.9% (0.92% unrounded) sequentially, which was the largest gain since 1981 and blew away consensus forecasts of 0.3% (for a full range of shocked reactions from traders and strategistssee this).</p><p><blockquote>正如美国银行经济学家Alexander Lin所写，“令人瞠目结舌”的4月份CPI报告是一个“巨大的惊喜”，因为核心CPI环比强劲上涨0.9%（未四舍五入为0.92%），这是自1981年以来的最大涨幅，并超出了市场普遍预测0.3%（有关交易员和策略师的各种震惊反应，请参阅此处）。</blockquote></p><p>However, in some potentially mitigating details, BofA reveals that near-term inflation pressures were driven by<b>goods shortages and the reopening \"and that was certainly the case this month as these two themes accounted for at least 70bp of the rise in core.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，在一些可能缓解的细节中，美国银行透露，近期通胀压力是由以下因素驱动的<b>商品短缺和重新开放“本月的情况确实如此，因为这两个主题至少占core涨幅的70个基点。”</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>First on&nbsp; shortages, auto prices jumped 4.3% mom with particular strength in used cars, which posted a record increase of 10.0% mom. Despite this historic increase, there is likely further upside in the pipeline with Manheim wholesale used cars rising another 8.2% in April, which builds on the 11% increase from Jan through March.</li><li>Household furnishings &amp; supplies also jumped 0.9% mom, with strength in other goods like recreation (+1.2%) and education &amp; communication (+3.1%).</li><li>Related to the reopening, lodging away from home rose 7.6% mom and transportation services jumped 2.9%.</li><li>In transportation services, airline fares leapt 10.2% mom and car &amp; truck rental leasing surged 16.2% mom, which follows an already impressive 11.7% gain in March.</li><li>The gains in lodging and airfares were both record highs,<b>but prices remain 17.7% and 4.9% lower than pre-pandemic levels which means scope for further significant price increases in coming months.</b></li><li>In leasing, rental car companies have been impacted by the production cuts in the auto sector as well, which has forced them to build back their fleets with used cars as travel recovers.</li><li>Motor vehicle insurance prices also rose 2.5% mom, which could reflect more people getting back on the roads.</li></ul>Meanwhile, Lin argues that more persistent sources of inflation were tamer. Rents and OER both came in at 0.2% mom, which while in line with the recent trend, is about to change as we discussed in \"And Now Rents Are Soaring Too.\" Furthermore, as Joseph Carson notes, housing prices are up 18% in the past 12 months, a record increase and<b>nine times the increase in owners' rent. \"</b>The old CPI included house prices. Inserting house prices in place of non-market owner rents,<b>reported inflation would have been twice the 4.2% gain</b>.\"</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>首先是短缺问题，汽车价格环比上涨4.3%，尤其是二手车，环比上涨10.0%，创历史新高。尽管出现了历史性的增长，但曼海姆批发二手车在1月至3月11%增长的基础上，4月份可能会进一步上涨8.2%。</li><li>家居用品和用品也环比上涨0.9%，其他商品如娱乐（+1.2%）和教育及通讯（+3.1%）表现强劲。</li><li>与重新开放相关，外出住宿环比增长7.6%，交通服务增长2.9%。</li><li>在运输服务方面，机票价格环比上涨10.2%，汽车和卡车租赁价格环比飙升16.2%，此前3月份已经上涨了11.7%，令人印象深刻。</li><li>住宿和机票价格涨幅均创历史新高，<b>但价格仍比大流行前的水平低17.7%和4.9%，这意味着未来几个月价格还有进一步大幅上涨的空间。</b></li><li>在租赁方面，汽车租赁公司也受到了汽车行业减产的影响，随着旅行的复苏，这迫使他们用二手车重建车队。</li><li>机动车辆保险价格也环比上涨2.5%，这可能反映出更多的人重新上路。</li></ul>与此同时，林认为，更持久的通胀来源更加温和。租金和OER环比均上涨0.2%，虽然与最近的趋势一致，但正如我们在“现在租金也在飙升”中讨论的那样，即将发生变化。此外，正如约瑟夫·卡森指出的那样，过去12个月房价上涨了18%，创下了历史新高<b>业主租金涨幅的九倍。”</b>旧的CPI包括房价。插入房价代替非市场业主租金，<b>报告的通胀率将是4.2%涨幅的两倍</b>.\"</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, medical care inflation was flat as the boost from stimulus around the turn of the year faded. Within healthcare, insurance was a big drag, contracting 1.0% mom. Professional services also inched down -0.2% mom, while hospital rose 0.3% mom.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，随着年初刺激措施的提振消退，医疗保健通胀持平。在医疗保健领域，保险是一个很大的拖累，环比收缩1.0%。专业服务环比也小幅下降0.2%，而医院环比上涨0.3%。</blockquote></p><p>A visual summary of the data looks like this, first on a M/M basis, where the base effect has no impact as it is sequential...</p><p><blockquote>数据的可视化摘要如下所示，首先是在M/M的基础上，基数效应没有影响，因为它是连续的...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae18376e78b4cca392db3a4a3ac3e393\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and then the YoY CPI print which is less relevant due to the collapse last March.</p><p><blockquote>...然后是同比CPI数据，由于去年3月的崩溃，该数据不太相关。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63fb5677bd66ef2a9464cd05c551b8b7\" tg-width=\"1139\" tg-height=\"647\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>So with inflation soaring, will anything change and will the Fed be forced to tighten sooner? According to BofA, not at all: \"<i>the Fed is likely to continue to reiterate the message of transitory one-off price increases versus more persistent inflation, with this report a shining example of these dynamics. However, a key question going forward is whether this transitory strength will ultimately feed into the latter. This would be accomplished through rising long term inflation expectations—keep an eye out on survey- and market-based measures.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>那么，随着通胀飙升，情况会发生变化吗？美联储会被迫更快收紧吗？根据美国银行的说法，根本不是：“<i>美联储可能会继续重申暂时的一次性价格上涨与更持久的通胀的信息，这份报告是这些动态的一个光辉例子。然而，未来的一个关键问题是，这种短暂的力量最终是否会流入后者。这将通过提高长期通胀预期来实现——密切关注调查和基于市场的措施。”</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here Is The Heatmap From Today's \"Eye-Popping\" CPI Report<blockquote>这是今天“令人瞠目结舌”的CPI报告的热图</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere Is The Heatmap From Today's \"Eye-Popping\" CPI Report<blockquote>这是今天“令人瞠目结舌”的CPI报告的热图</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-12 23:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As BOfA economist Alexander Lin writes, the \"eye-popping\" April CPI report was a \"massive surprise\" as core CPI strongly rose 0.9% (0.92% unrounded) sequentially, which was the largest gain since 1981 and blew away consensus forecasts of 0.3% (for a full range of shocked reactions from traders and strategistssee this).</p><p><blockquote>正如美国银行经济学家Alexander Lin所写，“令人瞠目结舌”的4月份CPI报告是一个“巨大的惊喜”，因为核心CPI环比强劲上涨0.9%（未四舍五入为0.92%），这是自1981年以来的最大涨幅，并超出了市场普遍预测0.3%（有关交易员和策略师的各种震惊反应，请参阅此处）。</blockquote></p><p>However, in some potentially mitigating details, BofA reveals that near-term inflation pressures were driven by<b>goods shortages and the reopening \"and that was certainly the case this month as these two themes accounted for at least 70bp of the rise in core.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，在一些可能缓解的细节中，美国银行透露，近期通胀压力是由以下因素驱动的<b>商品短缺和重新开放“本月的情况确实如此，因为这两个主题至少占core涨幅的70个基点。”</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>First on&nbsp; shortages, auto prices jumped 4.3% mom with particular strength in used cars, which posted a record increase of 10.0% mom. Despite this historic increase, there is likely further upside in the pipeline with Manheim wholesale used cars rising another 8.2% in April, which builds on the 11% increase from Jan through March.</li><li>Household furnishings &amp; supplies also jumped 0.9% mom, with strength in other goods like recreation (+1.2%) and education &amp; communication (+3.1%).</li><li>Related to the reopening, lodging away from home rose 7.6% mom and transportation services jumped 2.9%.</li><li>In transportation services, airline fares leapt 10.2% mom and car &amp; truck rental leasing surged 16.2% mom, which follows an already impressive 11.7% gain in March.</li><li>The gains in lodging and airfares were both record highs,<b>but prices remain 17.7% and 4.9% lower than pre-pandemic levels which means scope for further significant price increases in coming months.</b></li><li>In leasing, rental car companies have been impacted by the production cuts in the auto sector as well, which has forced them to build back their fleets with used cars as travel recovers.</li><li>Motor vehicle insurance prices also rose 2.5% mom, which could reflect more people getting back on the roads.</li></ul>Meanwhile, Lin argues that more persistent sources of inflation were tamer. Rents and OER both came in at 0.2% mom, which while in line with the recent trend, is about to change as we discussed in \"And Now Rents Are Soaring Too.\" Furthermore, as Joseph Carson notes, housing prices are up 18% in the past 12 months, a record increase and<b>nine times the increase in owners' rent. \"</b>The old CPI included house prices. Inserting house prices in place of non-market owner rents,<b>reported inflation would have been twice the 4.2% gain</b>.\"</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>首先是短缺问题，汽车价格环比上涨4.3%，尤其是二手车，环比上涨10.0%，创历史新高。尽管出现了历史性的增长，但曼海姆批发二手车在1月至3月11%增长的基础上，4月份可能会进一步上涨8.2%。</li><li>家居用品和用品也环比上涨0.9%，其他商品如娱乐（+1.2%）和教育及通讯（+3.1%）表现强劲。</li><li>与重新开放相关，外出住宿环比增长7.6%，交通服务增长2.9%。</li><li>在运输服务方面，机票价格环比上涨10.2%，汽车和卡车租赁价格环比飙升16.2%，此前3月份已经上涨了11.7%，令人印象深刻。</li><li>住宿和机票价格涨幅均创历史新高，<b>但价格仍比大流行前的水平低17.7%和4.9%，这意味着未来几个月价格还有进一步大幅上涨的空间。</b></li><li>在租赁方面，汽车租赁公司也受到了汽车行业减产的影响，随着旅行的复苏，这迫使他们用二手车重建车队。</li><li>机动车辆保险价格也环比上涨2.5%，这可能反映出更多的人重新上路。</li></ul>与此同时，林认为，更持久的通胀来源更加温和。租金和OER环比均上涨0.2%，虽然与最近的趋势一致，但正如我们在“现在租金也在飙升”中讨论的那样，即将发生变化。此外，正如约瑟夫·卡森指出的那样，过去12个月房价上涨了18%，创下了历史新高<b>业主租金涨幅的九倍。”</b>旧的CPI包括房价。插入房价代替非市场业主租金，<b>报告的通胀率将是4.2%涨幅的两倍</b>.\"</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, medical care inflation was flat as the boost from stimulus around the turn of the year faded. Within healthcare, insurance was a big drag, contracting 1.0% mom. Professional services also inched down -0.2% mom, while hospital rose 0.3% mom.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，随着年初刺激措施的提振消退，医疗保健通胀持平。在医疗保健领域，保险是一个很大的拖累，环比收缩1.0%。专业服务环比也小幅下降0.2%，而医院环比上涨0.3%。</blockquote></p><p>A visual summary of the data looks like this, first on a M/M basis, where the base effect has no impact as it is sequential...</p><p><blockquote>数据的可视化摘要如下所示，首先是在M/M的基础上，基数效应没有影响，因为它是连续的...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae18376e78b4cca392db3a4a3ac3e393\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and then the YoY CPI print which is less relevant due to the collapse last March.</p><p><blockquote>...然后是同比CPI数据，由于去年3月的崩溃，该数据不太相关。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63fb5677bd66ef2a9464cd05c551b8b7\" tg-width=\"1139\" tg-height=\"647\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>So with inflation soaring, will anything change and will the Fed be forced to tighten sooner? According to BofA, not at all: \"<i>the Fed is likely to continue to reiterate the message of transitory one-off price increases versus more persistent inflation, with this report a shining example of these dynamics. However, a key question going forward is whether this transitory strength will ultimately feed into the latter. This would be accomplished through rising long term inflation expectations—keep an eye out on survey- and market-based measures.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>那么，随着通胀飙升，情况会发生变化吗？美联储会被迫更快收紧吗？根据美国银行的说法，根本不是：“<i>美联储可能会继续重申暂时的一次性价格上涨与更持久的通胀的信息，这份报告是这些动态的一个光辉例子。然而，未来的一个关键问题是，这种短暂的力量最终是否会流入后者。这将通过提高长期通胀预期来实现——密切关注调查和基于市场的措施。”</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-heatmap-todays-eye-popping-cpi-report\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-heatmap-todays-eye-popping-cpi-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170539751","content_text":"As BOfA economist Alexander Lin writes, the \"eye-popping\" April CPI report was a \"massive surprise\" as core CPI strongly rose 0.9% (0.92% unrounded) sequentially, which was the largest gain since 1981 and blew away consensus forecasts of 0.3% (for a full range of shocked reactions from traders and strategistssee this).However, in some potentially mitigating details, BofA reveals that near-term inflation pressures were driven bygoods shortages and the reopening \"and that was certainly the case this month as these two themes accounted for at least 70bp of the rise in core.\"First on  shortages, auto prices jumped 4.3% mom with particular strength in used cars, which posted a record increase of 10.0% mom. Despite this historic increase, there is likely further upside in the pipeline with Manheim wholesale used cars rising another 8.2% in April, which builds on the 11% increase from Jan through March.Household furnishings & supplies also jumped 0.9% mom, with strength in other goods like recreation (+1.2%) and education & communication (+3.1%).Related to the reopening, lodging away from home rose 7.6% mom and transportation services jumped 2.9%.In transportation services, airline fares leapt 10.2% mom and car & truck rental leasing surged 16.2% mom, which follows an already impressive 11.7% gain in March.The gains in lodging and airfares were both record highs,but prices remain 17.7% and 4.9% lower than pre-pandemic levels which means scope for further significant price increases in coming months.In leasing, rental car companies have been impacted by the production cuts in the auto sector as well, which has forced them to build back their fleets with used cars as travel recovers.Motor vehicle insurance prices also rose 2.5% mom, which could reflect more people getting back on the roads.Meanwhile, Lin argues that more persistent sources of inflation were tamer. Rents and OER both came in at 0.2% mom, which while in line with the recent trend, is about to change as we discussed in \"And Now Rents Are Soaring Too.\" Furthermore, as Joseph Carson notes, housing prices are up 18% in the past 12 months, a record increase andnine times the increase in owners' rent. \"The old CPI included house prices. Inserting house prices in place of non-market owner rents,reported inflation would have been twice the 4.2% gain.\"Meanwhile, medical care inflation was flat as the boost from stimulus around the turn of the year faded. Within healthcare, insurance was a big drag, contracting 1.0% mom. Professional services also inched down -0.2% mom, while hospital rose 0.3% mom.A visual summary of the data looks like this, first on a M/M basis, where the base effect has no impact as it is sequential...... and then the YoY CPI print which is less relevant due to the collapse last March.So with inflation soaring, will anything change and will the Fed be forced to tighten sooner? According to BofA, not at all: \"the Fed is likely to continue to reiterate the message of transitory one-off price increases versus more persistent inflation, with this report a shining example of these dynamics. However, a key question going forward is whether this transitory strength will ultimately feed into the latter. This would be accomplished through rising long term inflation expectations—keep an eye out on survey- and market-based measures.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140582242,"gmtCreate":1625666197586,"gmtModify":1631891298543,"author":{"id":"3574387511172860","authorId":"3574387511172860","name":"DavidLoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e241027ed98c20cf6994afaebda97a3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387511172860","idStr":"3574387511172860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>😪😪😪😪😪","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>😪😪😪😪😪","text":"$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$😪😪😪😪😪","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4137e9532fe9b11095a8d01afd85d8","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140582242","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3982,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}