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0勋章

2021-06-08

$BlackBerry(BB)$To the moon apes

2021-04-14

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2021-04-14

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2021-04-03

$Playags Inc.(AGS)$Help

2021-04-03

Wow

Wall Street Has Given Up on These 3 Stocks, and That's a Huge Mistake<blockquote>华尔街已经放弃了这三只股票，这是一个巨大的错误</blockquote>

2021-04-03

Wow

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2021-04-03

Oo no

How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>

2021-04-02

Mmm interesting

2021-04-02

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2021-04-02

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2021-04-02

Oo

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2021-04-02

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2021-04-01

Yo

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2021-03-31

$Coca-Cola(KO)$bit by bit we climb

2021-03-26

Hello

2021-03-25

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2021-03-25

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2021-03-23

$Playags Inc.(AGS)$Hurts

2021-03-20

$FMC Technologies Inc(FTI)$to sell or hold?

2021-03-20

$Playags Inc.(AGS)$Hurts inside

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>To the moon apes","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>To the moon apes","text":"$BlackBerry(BB)$To the moon apes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114466720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344625835,"gmtCreate":1618407549727,"gmtModify":1634293164599,"author":{"id":"3574665432353483","authorId":"3574665432353483","name":"Sakeboy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ce50ede8b11d07826c65e52c2ec93e2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574665432353483","authorIdStr":"3574665432353483"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and 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comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344625963","repostId":"1114138942","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340486692,"gmtCreate":1617452908116,"gmtModify":1634520897474,"author":{"id":"3574665432353483","authorId":"3574665432353483","name":"Sakeboy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ce50ede8b11d07826c65e52c2ec93e2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574665432353483","authorIdStr":"3574665432353483"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGS\">$Playags Inc.(AGS)$</a>Help&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGS\">$Playags Inc.(AGS)$</a>Help&nbsp;","text":"$Playags Inc.(AGS)$Help","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb9e55997da8d889f26c04e0aa95ae66","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340486692","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340486813,"gmtCreate":1617452857332,"gmtModify":1634520897598,"author":{"id":"3574665432353483","authorId":"3574665432353483","name":"Sakeboy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ce50ede8b11d07826c65e52c2ec93e2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574665432353483","authorIdStr":"3574665432353483"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340486813","repostId":"1121666420","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121666420","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617365764,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121666420?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Has Given Up on These 3 Stocks, and That's a Huge Mistake<blockquote>华尔街已经放弃了这三只股票，这是一个巨大的错误</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121666420","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"It's never a bad time to search for beaten-down stocks that are profitable on paper.Searching forval","content":"<p>It's never a bad time to search for beaten-down stocks that are profitable on paper.Searching forvalue stocksis pretty simple: Find financially robust companies that have performed poorly from a share price perspective, and buy them when they're down. When the share price comes back to reality, you'll be a winner. Wall Street has the habit of kicking a stock when it's down, as negative sentiment surrounding a particular name can spell doom for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>现在是寻找账面上盈利的惨败股票的好时机。寻找价值股票非常简单：找到从股价角度来看表现不佳的财务状况稳健的公司，并在它们下跌时买入它们。当股价回归现实时，你就是赢家。华尔街有在股票下跌时踢它的习惯，因为围绕某个特定名字的负面情绪可能会给股东带来厄运。</blockquote></p><p>For those seeking value, these moments present an opportunity. Here, we'll look at three value stocks that have seen better days, but also have a good chance at rebounding.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些寻求价值的人来说，这些时刻提供了一个机会。在这里，我们将看看三只价值股，它们经历了更好的日子，但也有很好的反弹机会。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gilead Sciences</b></p><p><blockquote><b>吉利德科学</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the past five years,<b>Gilead Sciences</b>(NASDAQ:GILD)has managed to lose about 40% of its value on the open market, and has vastly underperformed apassively held index fundover the same period (as shown below). As a market leader in the oncology, HIV, and hepatitis C drug markets, respectively, the company produces a suite of antivirals for typically hard-to-treat illnesses. While Gilead was -- and is -- front-and-center during the pandemic in its production of Veklury (more commonly known as remdesivir), it is not one of the major vaccine producers.</p><p><blockquote>五年来，<b>吉利德科学</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：GILD）在公开市场上的价值损失了约 40%，并且在同一时期表现远逊于被动持有的指数基金（如下所示）。作为肿瘤学、艾滋病毒和丙型肝炎药物市场的市场领导者，该公司生产一套针对典型难以治疗的疾病的抗病毒药物。虽然吉利德在疫情期间一直是 Veklury（通常称为瑞德西韦）生产的前沿和中心，但它并不是主要的疫苗生产商之一。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps the better news for those considering a Gilead investment is that the company is fundamentally quite strong. It trades at 9 times earnings, which is comparably cheap across the large-cap biotech sector. It projects a strong 2021, releasing guidance for revenue of $25 billion and EPS in the $7 range .</p><p><blockquote>对于那些考虑投资吉利德的人来说，也许更好的消息是该公司基本面相当强劲。它的市盈率是市盈率的 9 倍，在大型生物技术行业中相对便宜。它预计 2021 年将表现强劲，发布收入指引为 250 亿美元，每股收益在 7 美元范围内。</blockquote></p><p>Put simply, the company trades at an attractive price relative to the earnings it generates, and the hope is that patients start treatment for other viral and chronic (non-COVID) illnesses now that the pandemic has waned a bit in the early part of the year.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，该公司的交易价格相对于其产生的收益很有吸引力，希望既然疫情在今年年初有所减弱，患者就能开始治疗其他病毒性和慢性（非新冠）疾病。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e7203dcf348bdd13924f561f04db9af\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>DISH Network</b></p><p><blockquote><b>碟形网</b></blockquote></p><p>Despite a stagnant stock price --<b>DISH Network</b>(NASDAQ:DISH)has fallen from just under $50 per share to around $35 today -- there is reason to believe a comeback is in the works. The stock currently trades at 11 times earnings, relatively cheap based on today's standards, and posted strong revenue growth in 2020, up about 40% from 2019.</p><p><blockquote>尽管股价停滞不前——<b>碟形网</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：DISH）已从每股略低于 50 美元跌至今天的 35 美元左右——有理由相信卷土重来正在进行中。该股目前的市盈率为 11 倍，以今天的标准来看相对便宜，并在 2020 年收入强劲增长，比 2019 年增长约 40%。</blockquote></p><p>DISH has engaged in a few creative partnerships; perhaps the most promising of the bunchis a pact with DraftKings, which seeks to offer sports betting from DISH set-top boxes. The underlying current here is that DISH Network has shown an ability to think outside the box, which is reflected in itsprofitability measures. It is a buy at its current price, and has an opportunity to stage a comeback in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>DISH参与了一些创造性的合作伙伴关系；也许bunchis中最有前途的是与DraftKings的协议，该协议寻求从碟形机顶盒提供体育博彩。这里的潜在趋势是，DISH Network 已经表现出跳出框框思考的能力，这反映在其盈利指标中。以目前的价格来看，它值得买入，并且有机会在未来几年卷土重来。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tupperware Brands</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特百惠品牌</b></blockquote></p><p>While not the most high-flying name you've ever heard,<b>Tupperware Brands</b>(NYSE:TUP)simply runs a sustainably profitable business. Last year's earnings were $2.24 a share, and the stock currently trades around $25 per share, leading to a current price-to-earnings ratio of only about 11. While overall sales were down in 2020, profitable sales growth rose, a sign that the company is still able to control costs and make money in the most difficult of circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>虽然不是你听过的最响亮的名字，<b>特百惠品牌</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TUP）简单地经营着一项可持续盈利的业务。去年的收益为每股2.24美元，该股目前的交易价格约为每股25美元，导致目前的市盈率仅为11左右。虽然2020年整体销售额有所下降，但盈利销售增长有所上升，这表明该公司仍然能够在最困难的情况下控制成本并赚钱。</blockquote></p><p>The stock has also lost two-thirds of its value since 2013 but remains profitable. According to its year-end press release, the company has been successful in restructuring its debt and executing on its turnaround plans (especially concerning its core businesses). Shares remain cheap for the moment, but the fact remains: The company makes money and has the financials to prove it.</p><p><blockquote>自 2013 年以来，该股也损失了三分之二的价值，但仍保持盈利。根据其年终新闻稿，该公司已成功重组债务并执行其扭亏为盈计划（特别是有关其核心业务）。目前股价仍然很便宜，但事实仍然是：该公司赚钱了，并且有财务状况可以证明这一点。</blockquote></p><p><b>When in doubt, seek value</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当有疑问时，寻求价值</b></blockquote></p><p>The basic premise of value investing is to find profitable companies that happen to be on sale in the open market. While single-stock investing is far from a guaranteed strategy, it's worth looking into seemingly \"forgotten\" companies that simply have not yet had their day in the sun. Companies that have demonstrated their ability to grow and sustain profitability are your best bet, especially when they're cheap.</p><p><blockquote>价值投资的基本前提是找到那些恰好在公开市场上出售的盈利公司。虽然单一股票投资远不是一个有保证的策略，但值得研究一下那些看似“被遗忘”的公司，这些公司只是还没有在阳光下度过一天。那些已经证明自己有能力增长和维持盈利能力的公司是你最好的选择，尤其是当它们便宜的时候。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Has Given Up on These 3 Stocks, and That's a Huge Mistake<blockquote>华尔街已经放弃了这三只股票，这是一个巨大的错误</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Has Given Up on These 3 Stocks, and That's a Huge Mistake<blockquote>华尔街已经放弃了这三只股票，这是一个巨大的错误</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It's never a bad time to search for beaten-down stocks that are profitable on paper.Searching forvalue stocksis pretty simple: Find financially robust companies that have performed poorly from a share price perspective, and buy them when they're down. When the share price comes back to reality, you'll be a winner. Wall Street has the habit of kicking a stock when it's down, as negative sentiment surrounding a particular name can spell doom for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>现在是寻找账面上盈利的惨败股票的好时机。寻找价值股票非常简单：找到从股价角度来看表现不佳的财务状况稳健的公司，并在它们下跌时买入它们。当股价回归现实时，你就是赢家。华尔街有在股票下跌时踢它的习惯，因为围绕某个特定名字的负面情绪可能会给股东带来厄运。</blockquote></p><p>For those seeking value, these moments present an opportunity. Here, we'll look at three value stocks that have seen better days, but also have a good chance at rebounding.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些寻求价值的人来说，这些时刻提供了一个机会。在这里，我们将看看三只价值股，它们经历了更好的日子，但也有很好的反弹机会。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gilead Sciences</b></p><p><blockquote><b>吉利德科学</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the past five years,<b>Gilead Sciences</b>(NASDAQ:GILD)has managed to lose about 40% of its value on the open market, and has vastly underperformed apassively held index fundover the same period (as shown below). As a market leader in the oncology, HIV, and hepatitis C drug markets, respectively, the company produces a suite of antivirals for typically hard-to-treat illnesses. While Gilead was -- and is -- front-and-center during the pandemic in its production of Veklury (more commonly known as remdesivir), it is not one of the major vaccine producers.</p><p><blockquote>五年来，<b>吉利德科学</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：GILD）在公开市场上的价值损失了约 40%，并且在同一时期表现远逊于被动持有的指数基金（如下所示）。作为肿瘤学、艾滋病毒和丙型肝炎药物市场的市场领导者，该公司生产一套针对典型难以治疗的疾病的抗病毒药物。虽然吉利德在疫情期间一直是 Veklury（通常称为瑞德西韦）生产的前沿和中心，但它并不是主要的疫苗生产商之一。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps the better news for those considering a Gilead investment is that the company is fundamentally quite strong. It trades at 9 times earnings, which is comparably cheap across the large-cap biotech sector. It projects a strong 2021, releasing guidance for revenue of $25 billion and EPS in the $7 range .</p><p><blockquote>对于那些考虑投资吉利德的人来说，也许更好的消息是该公司基本面相当强劲。它的市盈率是市盈率的 9 倍，在大型生物技术行业中相对便宜。它预计 2021 年将表现强劲，发布收入指引为 250 亿美元，每股收益在 7 美元范围内。</blockquote></p><p>Put simply, the company trades at an attractive price relative to the earnings it generates, and the hope is that patients start treatment for other viral and chronic (non-COVID) illnesses now that the pandemic has waned a bit in the early part of the year.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，该公司的交易价格相对于其产生的收益很有吸引力，希望既然疫情在今年年初有所减弱，患者就能开始治疗其他病毒性和慢性（非新冠）疾病。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e7203dcf348bdd13924f561f04db9af\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>DISH Network</b></p><p><blockquote><b>碟形网</b></blockquote></p><p>Despite a stagnant stock price --<b>DISH Network</b>(NASDAQ:DISH)has fallen from just under $50 per share to around $35 today -- there is reason to believe a comeback is in the works. The stock currently trades at 11 times earnings, relatively cheap based on today's standards, and posted strong revenue growth in 2020, up about 40% from 2019.</p><p><blockquote>尽管股价停滞不前——<b>碟形网</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：DISH）已从每股略低于 50 美元跌至今天的 35 美元左右——有理由相信卷土重来正在进行中。该股目前的市盈率为 11 倍，以今天的标准来看相对便宜，并在 2020 年收入强劲增长，比 2019 年增长约 40%。</blockquote></p><p>DISH has engaged in a few creative partnerships; perhaps the most promising of the bunchis a pact with DraftKings, which seeks to offer sports betting from DISH set-top boxes. The underlying current here is that DISH Network has shown an ability to think outside the box, which is reflected in itsprofitability measures. It is a buy at its current price, and has an opportunity to stage a comeback in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>DISH参与了一些创造性的合作伙伴关系；也许bunchis中最有前途的是与DraftKings的协议，该协议寻求从碟形机顶盒提供体育博彩。这里的潜在趋势是，DISH Network 已经表现出跳出框框思考的能力，这反映在其盈利指标中。以目前的价格来看，它值得买入，并且有机会在未来几年卷土重来。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tupperware Brands</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特百惠品牌</b></blockquote></p><p>While not the most high-flying name you've ever heard,<b>Tupperware Brands</b>(NYSE:TUP)simply runs a sustainably profitable business. Last year's earnings were $2.24 a share, and the stock currently trades around $25 per share, leading to a current price-to-earnings ratio of only about 11. While overall sales were down in 2020, profitable sales growth rose, a sign that the company is still able to control costs and make money in the most difficult of circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>虽然不是你听过的最响亮的名字，<b>特百惠品牌</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TUP）简单地经营着一项可持续盈利的业务。去年的收益为每股2.24美元，该股目前的交易价格约为每股25美元，导致目前的市盈率仅为11左右。虽然2020年整体销售额有所下降，但盈利销售增长有所上升，这表明该公司仍然能够在最困难的情况下控制成本并赚钱。</blockquote></p><p>The stock has also lost two-thirds of its value since 2013 but remains profitable. According to its year-end press release, the company has been successful in restructuring its debt and executing on its turnaround plans (especially concerning its core businesses). Shares remain cheap for the moment, but the fact remains: The company makes money and has the financials to prove it.</p><p><blockquote>自 2013 年以来，该股也损失了三分之二的价值，但仍保持盈利。根据其年终新闻稿，该公司已成功重组债务并执行其扭亏为盈计划（特别是有关其核心业务）。目前股价仍然很便宜，但事实仍然是：该公司赚钱了，并且有财务状况可以证明这一点。</blockquote></p><p><b>When in doubt, seek value</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当有疑问时，寻求价值</b></blockquote></p><p>The basic premise of value investing is to find profitable companies that happen to be on sale in the open market. While single-stock investing is far from a guaranteed strategy, it's worth looking into seemingly \"forgotten\" companies that simply have not yet had their day in the sun. Companies that have demonstrated their ability to grow and sustain profitability are your best bet, especially when they're cheap.</p><p><blockquote>价值投资的基本前提是找到那些恰好在公开市场上出售的盈利公司。虽然单一股票投资远不是一个有保证的策略，但值得研究一下那些看似“被遗忘”的公司，这些公司只是还没有在阳光下度过一天。那些已经证明自己有能力增长和维持盈利能力的公司是你最好的选择，尤其是当它们便宜的时候。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/wall-street-has-given-up-on-these-3-stocks-and-tha/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GILD":"吉利德科学","DISH":"Dish Network"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/wall-street-has-given-up-on-these-3-stocks-and-tha/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121666420","content_text":"It's never a bad time to search for beaten-down stocks that are profitable on paper.Searching forvalue stocksis pretty simple: Find financially robust companies that have performed poorly from a share price perspective, and buy them when they're down. When the share price comes back to reality, you'll be a winner. Wall Street has the habit of kicking a stock when it's down, as negative sentiment surrounding a particular name can spell doom for shareholders.For those seeking value, these moments present an opportunity. Here, we'll look at three value stocks that have seen better days, but also have a good chance at rebounding.Gilead SciencesOver the past five years,Gilead Sciences(NASDAQ:GILD)has managed to lose about 40% of its value on the open market, and has vastly underperformed apassively held index fundover the same period (as shown below). As a market leader in the oncology, HIV, and hepatitis C drug markets, respectively, the company produces a suite of antivirals for typically hard-to-treat illnesses. While Gilead was -- and is -- front-and-center during the pandemic in its production of Veklury (more commonly known as remdesivir), it is not one of the major vaccine producers.Perhaps the better news for those considering a Gilead investment is that the company is fundamentally quite strong. It trades at 9 times earnings, which is comparably cheap across the large-cap biotech sector. It projects a strong 2021, releasing guidance for revenue of $25 billion and EPS in the $7 range .Put simply, the company trades at an attractive price relative to the earnings it generates, and the hope is that patients start treatment for other viral and chronic (non-COVID) illnesses now that the pandemic has waned a bit in the early part of the year.DISH NetworkDespite a stagnant stock price --DISH Network(NASDAQ:DISH)has fallen from just under $50 per share to around $35 today -- there is reason to believe a comeback is in the works. The stock currently trades at 11 times earnings, relatively cheap based on today's standards, and posted strong revenue growth in 2020, up about 40% from 2019.DISH has engaged in a few creative partnerships; perhaps the most promising of the bunchis a pact with DraftKings, which seeks to offer sports betting from DISH set-top boxes. The underlying current here is that DISH Network has shown an ability to think outside the box, which is reflected in itsprofitability measures. It is a buy at its current price, and has an opportunity to stage a comeback in the coming years.Tupperware BrandsWhile not the most high-flying name you've ever heard,Tupperware Brands(NYSE:TUP)simply runs a sustainably profitable business. Last year's earnings were $2.24 a share, and the stock currently trades around $25 per share, leading to a current price-to-earnings ratio of only about 11. While overall sales were down in 2020, profitable sales growth rose, a sign that the company is still able to control costs and make money in the most difficult of circumstances.The stock has also lost two-thirds of its value since 2013 but remains profitable. According to its year-end press release, the company has been successful in restructuring its debt and executing on its turnaround plans (especially concerning its core businesses). Shares remain cheap for the moment, but the fact remains: The company makes money and has the financials to prove it.When in doubt, seek valueThe basic premise of value investing is to find profitable companies that happen to be on sale in the open market. While single-stock investing is far from a guaranteed strategy, it's worth looking into seemingly \"forgotten\" companies that simply have not yet had their day in the sun. Companies that have demonstrated their ability to grow and sustain profitability are your best bet, especially when they're cheap.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DISH":0.9,"GILD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340486353,"gmtCreate":1617452836472,"gmtModify":1634520897842,"author":{"id":"3574665432353483","authorId":"3574665432353483","name":"Sakeboy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ce50ede8b11d07826c65e52c2ec93e2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574665432353483","authorIdStr":"3574665432353483"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340486353","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340488401,"gmtCreate":1617452784103,"gmtModify":1634520898084,"author":{"id":"3574665432353483","authorId":"3574665432353483","name":"Sakeboy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ce50ede8b11d07826c65e52c2ec93e2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574665432353483","authorIdStr":"3574665432353483"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oo no","listText":"Oo no","text":"Oo no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340488401","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最伟大的反弹行情之一。基准测试后<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）由于冠状病毒大流行前所未有的不确定性，在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹，较低点上涨了约 75%。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到另一个现实：股市崩溃或修正的倾向。事情现在可能看起来很好，但下一次大俯冲总是在翅膀里等着。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经进行了38次调整。这意味着基准指数平均每 1.87 年下降两位数。由于市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均值肯定不受投资者青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此……平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年至1996年的时期，那时没有任何修正。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月进行一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊市底部三年内的修正是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自 1960 年初（为了简单起见，我选择了一个任意年份）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从前八个熊市低点反弹的过程中，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下降。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自 2020 年 3 月 23 日以来，“涨、涨、走”几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当这个估值指标被击中时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能就是标准普尔500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，用于检查过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收入。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标准普尔500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是 150 年平均水平 16.8 的两倍多。以持续牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史上的水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而互联网的接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的壁垒，这些壁垒在过去可能会阻碍市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标准普尔 500 指数席勒市盈率突破并维持在 30 水平的情况并没有好结果。在之前的四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数从20%暴跌至89%。尽管如今大萧条时期经历的 89% 暴跌的可能性非常小，但历史上，当估值延长时，就像现在一样，可能会出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把现金放在手边，以备不时之需</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明，下行即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的消息，但不应该如此。崩溃和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买优秀公司的机会。想想那些你可能会因为去年三月没有买入而责备自己的伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来，标普500的38次调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹搁置了。此外，在过去一个世纪中，标普500的 20 年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要在调整期间进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38 个两位数跌幅中有 24 个是在 104 个日历日或更短时间内（3.5 个月或更短时间）触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能会很陡峭，但往往会很快解决。这是你准备好现金以备不时之需的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最伟大的反弹行情之一。基准测试后<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）由于冠状病毒大流行前所未有的不确定性，在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹，较低点上涨了约 75%。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到另一个现实：股市崩溃或修正的倾向。事情现在可能看起来很好，但下一次大俯冲总是在翅膀里等着。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经进行了38次调整。这意味着基准指数平均每 1.87 年下降两位数。由于市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均值肯定不受投资者青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此……平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年至1996年的时期，那时没有任何修正。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月进行一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊市底部三年内的修正是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自 1960 年初（为了简单起见，我选择了一个任意年份）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从前八个熊市低点反弹的过程中，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下降。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自 2020 年 3 月 23 日以来，“涨、涨、走”几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当这个估值指标被击中时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能就是标准普尔500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，用于检查过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收入。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标准普尔500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是 150 年平均水平 16.8 的两倍多。以持续牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史上的水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而互联网的接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的壁垒，这些壁垒在过去可能会阻碍市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标准普尔 500 指数席勒市盈率突破并维持在 30 水平的情况并没有好结果。在之前的四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数从20%暴跌至89%。尽管如今大萧条时期经历的 89% 暴跌的可能性非常小，但历史上，当估值延长时，就像现在一样，可能会出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把现金放在手边，以备不时之需</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明，下行即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的消息，但不应该如此。崩溃和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买优秀公司的机会。想想那些你可能会因为去年三月没有买入而责备自己的伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来，标普500的38次调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹搁置了。此外，在过去一个世纪中，标普500的 20 年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要在调整期间进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38 个两位数跌幅中有 24 个是在 104 个日历日或更短时间内（3.5 个月或更短时间）触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能会很陡峭，但往往会很快解决。这是你准备好现金以备不时之需的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. 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