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2021-05-07
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3 Reasons To Avoid AT&T<blockquote>避开 AT&T 的 3 个理由</blockquote>
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Members of High Yield Investor get exclusive access to our model portfolio.</li> </ul> AT&T (T) is a prized dividend stock for many retirees and for several good reasons. The company has a long history of consistently raising its dividend year-after-year, and, despite interest rates plummeting, the dividend yield stands at one of its most attractive levels ever:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>对于许多退休人员来说，T 是一只珍贵的股息股票。</li><li>虽然收益率确实很有吸引力，而且商业模式也相当稳定，但我们正在避开该股票。</li><li>我们分享三个原因。</li><li>寻找像这样的创意组合？高收益投资者的成员可以独家访问我们的模型投资组合。</li></ul>对于许多退休人员来说，AT&T (T) 是一只有价值的股息股票，原因有几个。该公司有着年复一年持续提高股息的悠久历史，尽管利率暴跌，但股息收益率仍处于有史以来最具吸引力的水平之一：</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the company is excited about its HBO Max business, which it believes will enable it to compete in the high-growth streaming business, which will help add growth to its collection of otherwise slow-growth or even shrinking businesses.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，该公司对其 HBO Max 业务感到兴奋，相信这将使其能够在高增长的流媒体业务中竞争，这将有助于增加其增长缓慢甚至萎缩的业务的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ec54f00b000550bd7abf30e458736e2\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> While all of this is true - and we are not outright bearish on the company - we are nonetheless avoiding T in our portfolio for the following three reasons:</p><p><blockquote>虽然所有这些都是真的——而且我们并没有完全看跌该公司——但我们出于以下三个原因避免在我们的投资组合中使用 T：</blockquote></p><p> #1. Massive Debt Burden</p><p><blockquote>#1.巨额债务负担</blockquote></p><p> In recent years, T has blown up its balance sheet through fool-hardy acquisitions. They wasted $67 billion on afailed acquisition of DirectTVwhich later forced them towrite offa whopping $15.5 billion of it, admitting a near 25% destruction of shareholder value on the transaction. They also made several billion dollars worth of other write-offs last year alone as they have made bad investment after bad investment.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，T 通过愚蠢的收购扩大了其资产负债表。他们在收购 DirectTV 的失败中浪费了 670 亿美元，后来迫使他们减记了高达 155 亿美元的收购，承认这笔交易造成了近 25% 的股东价值损失。仅去年一年，他们还进行了价值数十亿美元的其他冲销，因为他们进行了一次又一次的糟糕投资。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, today they stand a staggering ~$169B in net long-term debt:</p><p><blockquote>因此，如今他们的净长期债务高达 1690 亿美元：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eb1ad70166998d0cc820e783e8edc53\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> Ten years ago, they held roughly a third of that level of net long-term debt and twenty years ago, they held a small fraction of that debt level. Despite that, their EBITDA has not increased all that much over that span and has in fact remained flat over the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>十年前，他们持有的净长期债务大约是该水平的三分之一，而二十年前，他们持有的债务水平只有该水平的一小部分。尽管如此，他们的 EBITDA 在此期间并没有增加太多，事实上在过去十年中一直持平。</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> With such an enormous debt burden, T will be unable to respond opportunistically moving forward and - instead of improving capital returns to shareholders - it will have to make satisfying its debt masters top priority.</p><p><blockquote>面对如此巨大的债务负担，T将无法机会主义地向前推进，而且它将不得不将满足其债务主人作为首要任务，而不是提高股东的资本回报。</blockquote></p><p> #2. Weak Business Model</p><p><blockquote>#2.薄弱的商业模式</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, as its poor acquisition track record implies, T's businesses are mostly very weak and display poor profitability. As the chart below illustrates, T's return on invested capital and return on assets have been pretty abysmal, routinely hovering in the mid-single digits.</p><p><blockquote>此外，正如其糟糕的收购记录所暗示的那样，T 的业务大多非常薄弱，盈利能力很差。如下图所示，T 的投资资本回报率和资产回报率非常糟糕，通常徘徊在个位数中间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51648e8248efb01d0de23d5eecb0bc96\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> As a result, their spread on the debt they are taking on is very thin, leaving them little margin for error and failing to generate an attractive risk-reward for investors.</p><p><blockquote>因此，他们所承担的债务利差非常小，几乎没有犯错的余地，也无法为投资者产生有吸引力的风险回报。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, AT&T's best businesses - HBO Max and Fiber - are technology-heavy and are therefore exposed to heavy competition. With its declining legacy businesses weighing on results and its heavy debt burden demanding ever-increasing amounts of attention and capital, it will be very difficult for T to be able to go toe-to-toe with financially stronger competitors in technological races.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美国电话电报公司最好的业务——HBO Max和Fiber——技术密集型，因此面临激烈的竞争。由于其不断下滑的传统业务拖累了业绩，而且其沉重的债务负担需要越来越多的关注和资本，T 将很难在技术竞赛中与财务实力更强的竞争对手正面交锋。</blockquote></p><p> Given the heavy reliance on debt issuance to generate growth over the past decade, the very weak returns on assets and invested capital, the declining performance of many of its businesses, and the heavy technological competition facing T's few growth industries, we are not optimistic at all that T will be able to generate much growth - if any - in the years to come. This, in turn, will compound their debt problem by making it harder for them to naturally deleverage the balance sheet through growth.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于过去十年严重依赖发债来创造增长，资产和投资资本的回报非常疲软，其许多业务的业绩下滑，以及T的少数成长型行业面临激烈的技术竞争，我们一点也不乐观T将能够在未来几年产生大量增长（如果有的话）。这反过来又会加剧他们的债务问题，使他们更难通过增长自然地去杠杆化资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p> #3. Unattractive Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#3.没有吸引力的估值</blockquote></p><p> Even worse, T's fat dividend yield and apparently cheap share price are a mere mirage.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，T 的高额股息收益率和明显便宜的股价只是海市蜃楼。</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> Many unsophisticated and unsuspecting retirees simply look at the dividend yield and the share price and think a company is cheap if the share price is near decade lows and the yield is near all-time highs. Furthermore, in a company like T which, until this year, had a 36-year dividend growth streak and has been a fixture in the American telecom industry for decades, many investors believe it is rock solid.</p><p><blockquote>许多不谙世事、毫无戒心的退休人员只是看一下股息收益率和股价，就认为如果股价接近十年低点且收益率接近历史高点，一家公司就很便宜。此外，对于像T这样的公司来说，直到今年，该公司已经连续36年股息增长，并且几十年来一直是美国电信行业的常客，许多投资者认为它是坚如磐石的。</blockquote></p><p> Their 65% dividend payout ratio only further solidifies this sentiment as it gives off the impression that the dividend is very safe.</p><p><blockquote>他们65%的股息支付率只会进一步巩固这种情绪，因为它给人一种股息非常安全的印象。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Unfortunately, due to the aforementioned heavy debt burden, the cheapness of T's share price and the safety of its dividend are both illusions. While the share price merely reflects the market cap (i.e., equity valuation) of a company, a more accurate reflection of its current market valuation is its enterprise value (i.e., total sales price when including equity and debt).</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，由于前述沉重的债务负担，T股股价的便宜和分红的安全性都是假象。虽然股价仅反映公司的市值（即股权估值），但其当前市场估值的更准确反映是其企业价值（即包括股权和债务时的总销售价格）。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, over the past decade, T's enterprise value has outpaced its market cap by over three times, implying that shares are not nearly as cheap as they might imply on the surface.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，在过去十年中，T 的企业价值是其市值的三倍多，这意味着股票并不像表面上暗示的那样便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/237e4dedc7880ce1dbb85d5f3af3f87a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> As a result, T's true valuation in enterprise value to EBITDA terms makes the company look very expensive on a historical basis:</p><p><blockquote>因此，T 按 EBITDA 计算的企业价值的真实估值使得该公司在历史上看起来非常昂贵：</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, the dividend is not nearly as safe as the 65% payout ratio implies. In fact, ~98% of revenue is currently being consumed by expenses and the dividend, giving management a mere ~2% cushion to continue covering its dividend.</p><p><blockquote>此外，股息并不像 65% 的派息率所暗示的那样安全。事实上，目前约 98% 的收入被费用和股息消耗，管理层只有约 2% 的缓冲来继续支付股息。</blockquote></p><p> While the business model is diversified and stable enough that this should be sufficient under current conditions, the simple truth is that the company's recent trends are not convincing that it is headed in the right direction. While the chart below does show interest expenses declining relative to revenues and EBITDA over the past quarter, this is an exception to the rule over the past five years, meaning that the company has much to prove in the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>虽然商业模式足够多元化和稳定，在当前情况下应该已经足够了，但简单的事实是，该公司最近的趋势并不能令人信服地表明它正朝着正确的方向前进。虽然下图确实显示过去一个季度的利息支出相对于收入和 EBITDA 有所下降，但这是过去五年规则的一个例外，这意味着该公司在未来几个季度有很多东西需要证明。</blockquote></p><p> <<<图片加载中。。。>>>Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote><<<图片加载中。。。>>>YCharts提供的数据</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, inflation is surging, meaning that there will continue to be upward pressure on interest rates. With such a massive debt burden, if interest rates rise materially for an extended period of time, T will quickly see its dividend coverage erode as more and more cash flow is consumed by increased interest costs. As a result, management will be forced to shift priorities from supporting a large and burdensome dividend to diverting as much cash as possible towards paying down debt.</p><p><blockquote>此外，通货膨胀正在飙升，这意味着利率将继续面临上行压力。由于债务负担如此巨大，如果利率在较长时间内大幅上升，T 将很快看到其股息覆盖范围受到侵蚀，因为越来越多的现金流被利息成本增加消耗。因此，管理层将被迫将优先事项从支持大量且繁重的股息转向将尽可能多的现金用于偿还债务。</blockquote></p><p> Last, but not least, T's forays into streaming and fiber - while filled with growth potential - are also very capital-intensive. T will have to spend a lot of money to generate sufficient content to compete with the likes of Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Disney (DIS), and Apple (AAPL) in streaming wars and fiber infrastructure is very expensive to build out and faces limited barriers to entry. As a result of these capital demands, one or both of these business ventures may eventually push T to slash its dividend.</p><p><blockquote>最后但并非最不重要的一点是，T 进军流媒体和光纤领域——虽然充满增长潜力——也是非常资本密集型的。T 将不得不花费大量资金来生成足够的内容，以在流媒体大战中与 Netflix (NFLX)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、迪士尼 (DIS) 和苹果 (AAPL) 等公司竞争，而光纤基础设施的建设成本非常高，并且面临有限的准入壁垒。由于这些资本需求，这些商业冒险中的一项或两项最终可能会促使 T 削减股息。</blockquote></p><p> Already, the company is signaling that its dividend is not as safe as some may think it is. On theirQ4 2020 earnings call, management announced the inevitable:</p><p><blockquote>该公司已经发出信号，表明其股息并不像一些人想象的那么安全。在 2020 年第四季度盈利看涨期权上，管理层宣布了不可避免的事情：</blockquote></p><p> We plan to use free cash flow after dividends for the next couple of years to pay down debt. We remain focused on monetizing noncore assets and using those funds for debt reduction as well. We’re committed to <b>sustaining our dividend at current levels</b>, and we’ll give top priority to debt reduction, at this time. While it is encouraging to hear them acknowledging their debt problem and announce initiatives to address it, the fact that they have to freeze their dividend at current levels despite being a proud Dividend Aristocrat is very telling.</p><p><blockquote>我们计划在未来几年利用股息后的自由现金流来偿还债务。我们仍然专注于非核心资产货币化，并将这些资金用于债务削减。我们致力于<b>将我们的股息维持在当前水平</b>目前，我们将把减债放在首位。虽然听到他们承认自己的债务问题并宣布解决这一问题的举措令人鼓舞，但尽管他们是自豪的股息贵族，但他们不得不将股息冻结在当前水平，这一事实很能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> Investor Takeaway</p><p><blockquote>投资者要点</blockquote></p><p> While T'sfirst quarter resultsmay have cheered some investors with strong HBO Max performance and improved performance in its core wireless and broadband businesses, we see the bigger picture issues as unchanged. The debt remains far too high, their growth businesses remain outclassed by competition with far more financial flexibility than them, and their EV/EBITDA is hardly what we would call cheap. Last, but not least, the main reason for investing in T (its dividend) has been frozen indefinitely while the company focuses on deleveraging. Given the growth challenges they face, we believe this might take a long time to accomplish and, if interest rates rise meaningfully for a sustained period of time, management will likely be forced to slash the dividend.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 T 的第一季度业绩可能会因 HBO Max 的强劲表现以及其核心无线和宽带业务的业绩改善而让一些投资者感到高兴，但我们认为更大的问题没有改变。债务仍然太高，他们的成长型业务仍然被比他们财务灵活性大得多的竞争对手所超越，他们的EV/EBITDA很难像我们看涨期权的那样便宜。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，在公司专注于去杠杆化的同时，投资 T（其股息）的主要原因已被无限期冻结。鉴于他们面临的增长挑战，我们认为这可能需要很长时间才能实现，如果利率在一段时间内大幅上升，管理层可能会被迫削减股息。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, T is not significantly overpriced and we are neutral on its risk-adjusted total returns moving forward. However, we simply do not find it attractive enough to add to our portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，T 的定价并没有明显过高，我们对其未来的风险调整后总回报持中立态度。然而，我们只是觉得它没有足够的吸引力来添加到我们的投资组合中。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons To Avoid AT&T<blockquote>避开 AT&T 的 3 个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons To Avoid AT&T<blockquote>避开 AT&T 的 3 个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-07 13:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>T is a prized dividend stock for many retirees.</li> <li>While the yield is certainly attractive and the business model is quite stable, we are avoiding the stock.</li> <li>We share three reasons why.</li> <li>Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of High Yield Investor get exclusive access to our model portfolio.</li> </ul> AT&T (T) is a prized dividend stock for many retirees and for several good reasons. The company has a long history of consistently raising its dividend year-after-year, and, despite interest rates plummeting, the dividend yield stands at one of its most attractive levels ever:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>对于许多退休人员来说，T 是一只珍贵的股息股票。</li><li>虽然收益率确实很有吸引力，而且商业模式也相当稳定，但我们正在避开该股票。</li><li>我们分享三个原因。</li><li>寻找像这样的创意组合？高收益投资者的成员可以独家访问我们的模型投资组合。</li></ul>对于许多退休人员来说，AT&T (T) 是一只有价值的股息股票，原因有几个。该公司有着年复一年持续提高股息的悠久历史，尽管利率暴跌，但股息收益率仍处于有史以来最具吸引力的水平之一：</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the company is excited about its HBO Max business, which it believes will enable it to compete in the high-growth streaming business, which will help add growth to its collection of otherwise slow-growth or even shrinking businesses.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，该公司对其 HBO Max 业务感到兴奋，相信这将使其能够在高增长的流媒体业务中竞争，这将有助于增加其增长缓慢甚至萎缩的业务的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ec54f00b000550bd7abf30e458736e2\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> While all of this is true - and we are not outright bearish on the company - we are nonetheless avoiding T in our portfolio for the following three reasons:</p><p><blockquote>虽然所有这些都是真的——而且我们并没有完全看跌该公司——但我们出于以下三个原因避免在我们的投资组合中使用 T：</blockquote></p><p> #1. Massive Debt Burden</p><p><blockquote>#1.巨额债务负担</blockquote></p><p> In recent years, T has blown up its balance sheet through fool-hardy acquisitions. They wasted $67 billion on afailed acquisition of DirectTVwhich later forced them towrite offa whopping $15.5 billion of it, admitting a near 25% destruction of shareholder value on the transaction. They also made several billion dollars worth of other write-offs last year alone as they have made bad investment after bad investment.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，T 通过愚蠢的收购扩大了其资产负债表。他们在收购 DirectTV 的失败中浪费了 670 亿美元，后来迫使他们减记了高达 155 亿美元的收购，承认这笔交易造成了近 25% 的股东价值损失。仅去年一年，他们还进行了价值数十亿美元的其他冲销，因为他们进行了一次又一次的糟糕投资。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, today they stand a staggering ~$169B in net long-term debt:</p><p><blockquote>因此，如今他们的净长期债务高达 1690 亿美元：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eb1ad70166998d0cc820e783e8edc53\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> Ten years ago, they held roughly a third of that level of net long-term debt and twenty years ago, they held a small fraction of that debt level. Despite that, their EBITDA has not increased all that much over that span and has in fact remained flat over the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>十年前，他们持有的净长期债务大约是该水平的三分之一，而二十年前，他们持有的债务水平只有该水平的一小部分。尽管如此，他们的 EBITDA 在此期间并没有增加太多，事实上在过去十年中一直持平。</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> With such an enormous debt burden, T will be unable to respond opportunistically moving forward and - instead of improving capital returns to shareholders - it will have to make satisfying its debt masters top priority.</p><p><blockquote>面对如此巨大的债务负担，T将无法机会主义地向前推进，而且它将不得不将满足其债务主人作为首要任务，而不是提高股东的资本回报。</blockquote></p><p> #2. Weak Business Model</p><p><blockquote>#2.薄弱的商业模式</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, as its poor acquisition track record implies, T's businesses are mostly very weak and display poor profitability. As the chart below illustrates, T's return on invested capital and return on assets have been pretty abysmal, routinely hovering in the mid-single digits.</p><p><blockquote>此外，正如其糟糕的收购记录所暗示的那样，T 的业务大多非常薄弱，盈利能力很差。如下图所示，T 的投资资本回报率和资产回报率非常糟糕，通常徘徊在个位数中间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51648e8248efb01d0de23d5eecb0bc96\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> As a result, their spread on the debt they are taking on is very thin, leaving them little margin for error and failing to generate an attractive risk-reward for investors.</p><p><blockquote>因此，他们所承担的债务利差非常小，几乎没有犯错的余地，也无法为投资者产生有吸引力的风险回报。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, AT&T's best businesses - HBO Max and Fiber - are technology-heavy and are therefore exposed to heavy competition. With its declining legacy businesses weighing on results and its heavy debt burden demanding ever-increasing amounts of attention and capital, it will be very difficult for T to be able to go toe-to-toe with financially stronger competitors in technological races.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美国电话电报公司最好的业务——HBO Max和Fiber——技术密集型，因此面临激烈的竞争。由于其不断下滑的传统业务拖累了业绩，而且其沉重的债务负担需要越来越多的关注和资本，T 将很难在技术竞赛中与财务实力更强的竞争对手正面交锋。</blockquote></p><p> Given the heavy reliance on debt issuance to generate growth over the past decade, the very weak returns on assets and invested capital, the declining performance of many of its businesses, and the heavy technological competition facing T's few growth industries, we are not optimistic at all that T will be able to generate much growth - if any - in the years to come. This, in turn, will compound their debt problem by making it harder for them to naturally deleverage the balance sheet through growth.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于过去十年严重依赖发债来创造增长，资产和投资资本的回报非常疲软，其许多业务的业绩下滑，以及T的少数成长型行业面临激烈的技术竞争，我们一点也不乐观T将能够在未来几年产生大量增长（如果有的话）。这反过来又会加剧他们的债务问题，使他们更难通过增长自然地去杠杆化资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p> #3. Unattractive Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#3.没有吸引力的估值</blockquote></p><p> Even worse, T's fat dividend yield and apparently cheap share price are a mere mirage.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，T 的高额股息收益率和明显便宜的股价只是海市蜃楼。</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> Many unsophisticated and unsuspecting retirees simply look at the dividend yield and the share price and think a company is cheap if the share price is near decade lows and the yield is near all-time highs. Furthermore, in a company like T which, until this year, had a 36-year dividend growth streak and has been a fixture in the American telecom industry for decades, many investors believe it is rock solid.</p><p><blockquote>许多不谙世事、毫无戒心的退休人员只是看一下股息收益率和股价，就认为如果股价接近十年低点且收益率接近历史高点，一家公司就很便宜。此外，对于像T这样的公司来说，直到今年，该公司已经连续36年股息增长，并且几十年来一直是美国电信行业的常客，许多投资者认为它是坚如磐石的。</blockquote></p><p> Their 65% dividend payout ratio only further solidifies this sentiment as it gives off the impression that the dividend is very safe.</p><p><blockquote>他们65%的股息支付率只会进一步巩固这种情绪，因为它给人一种股息非常安全的印象。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Unfortunately, due to the aforementioned heavy debt burden, the cheapness of T's share price and the safety of its dividend are both illusions. While the share price merely reflects the market cap (i.e., equity valuation) of a company, a more accurate reflection of its current market valuation is its enterprise value (i.e., total sales price when including equity and debt).</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，由于前述沉重的债务负担，T股股价的便宜和分红的安全性都是假象。虽然股价仅反映公司的市值（即股权估值），但其当前市场估值的更准确反映是其企业价值（即包括股权和债务时的总销售价格）。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, over the past decade, T's enterprise value has outpaced its market cap by over three times, implying that shares are not nearly as cheap as they might imply on the surface.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，在过去十年中，T 的企业价值是其市值的三倍多，这意味着股票并不像表面上暗示的那样便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/237e4dedc7880ce1dbb85d5f3af3f87a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> As a result, T's true valuation in enterprise value to EBITDA terms makes the company look very expensive on a historical basis:</p><p><blockquote>因此，T 按 EBITDA 计算的企业价值的真实估值使得该公司在历史上看起来非常昂贵：</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, the dividend is not nearly as safe as the 65% payout ratio implies. In fact, ~98% of revenue is currently being consumed by expenses and the dividend, giving management a mere ~2% cushion to continue covering its dividend.</p><p><blockquote>此外，股息并不像 65% 的派息率所暗示的那样安全。事实上，目前约 98% 的收入被费用和股息消耗，管理层只有约 2% 的缓冲来继续支付股息。</blockquote></p><p> While the business model is diversified and stable enough that this should be sufficient under current conditions, the simple truth is that the company's recent trends are not convincing that it is headed in the right direction. While the chart below does show interest expenses declining relative to revenues and EBITDA over the past quarter, this is an exception to the rule over the past five years, meaning that the company has much to prove in the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>虽然商业模式足够多元化和稳定，在当前情况下应该已经足够了，但简单的事实是，该公司最近的趋势并不能令人信服地表明它正朝着正确的方向前进。虽然下图确实显示过去一个季度的利息支出相对于收入和 EBITDA 有所下降，但这是过去五年规则的一个例外，这意味着该公司在未来几个季度有很多东西需要证明。</blockquote></p><p> <<<图片加载中。。。>>>Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote><<<图片加载中。。。>>>YCharts提供的数据</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, inflation is surging, meaning that there will continue to be upward pressure on interest rates. With such a massive debt burden, if interest rates rise materially for an extended period of time, T will quickly see its dividend coverage erode as more and more cash flow is consumed by increased interest costs. As a result, management will be forced to shift priorities from supporting a large and burdensome dividend to diverting as much cash as possible towards paying down debt.</p><p><blockquote>此外，通货膨胀正在飙升，这意味着利率将继续面临上行压力。由于债务负担如此巨大，如果利率在较长时间内大幅上升，T 将很快看到其股息覆盖范围受到侵蚀，因为越来越多的现金流被利息成本增加消耗。因此，管理层将被迫将优先事项从支持大量且繁重的股息转向将尽可能多的现金用于偿还债务。</blockquote></p><p> Last, but not least, T's forays into streaming and fiber - while filled with growth potential - are also very capital-intensive. T will have to spend a lot of money to generate sufficient content to compete with the likes of Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Disney (DIS), and Apple (AAPL) in streaming wars and fiber infrastructure is very expensive to build out and faces limited barriers to entry. As a result of these capital demands, one or both of these business ventures may eventually push T to slash its dividend.</p><p><blockquote>最后但并非最不重要的一点是，T 进军流媒体和光纤领域——虽然充满增长潜力——也是非常资本密集型的。T 将不得不花费大量资金来生成足够的内容，以在流媒体大战中与 Netflix (NFLX)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、迪士尼 (DIS) 和苹果 (AAPL) 等公司竞争，而光纤基础设施的建设成本非常高，并且面临有限的准入壁垒。由于这些资本需求，这些商业冒险中的一项或两项最终可能会促使 T 削减股息。</blockquote></p><p> Already, the company is signaling that its dividend is not as safe as some may think it is. On theirQ4 2020 earnings call, management announced the inevitable:</p><p><blockquote>该公司已经发出信号，表明其股息并不像一些人想象的那么安全。在 2020 年第四季度盈利看涨期权上，管理层宣布了不可避免的事情：</blockquote></p><p> We plan to use free cash flow after dividends for the next couple of years to pay down debt. We remain focused on monetizing noncore assets and using those funds for debt reduction as well. We’re committed to <b>sustaining our dividend at current levels</b>, and we’ll give top priority to debt reduction, at this time. While it is encouraging to hear them acknowledging their debt problem and announce initiatives to address it, the fact that they have to freeze their dividend at current levels despite being a proud Dividend Aristocrat is very telling.</p><p><blockquote>我们计划在未来几年利用股息后的自由现金流来偿还债务。我们仍然专注于非核心资产货币化，并将这些资金用于债务削减。我们致力于<b>将我们的股息维持在当前水平</b>目前，我们将把减债放在首位。虽然听到他们承认自己的债务问题并宣布解决这一问题的举措令人鼓舞，但尽管他们是自豪的股息贵族，但他们不得不将股息冻结在当前水平，这一事实很能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> Investor Takeaway</p><p><blockquote>投资者要点</blockquote></p><p> While T'sfirst quarter resultsmay have cheered some investors with strong HBO Max performance and improved performance in its core wireless and broadband businesses, we see the bigger picture issues as unchanged. The debt remains far too high, their growth businesses remain outclassed by competition with far more financial flexibility than them, and their EV/EBITDA is hardly what we would call cheap. Last, but not least, the main reason for investing in T (its dividend) has been frozen indefinitely while the company focuses on deleveraging. Given the growth challenges they face, we believe this might take a long time to accomplish and, if interest rates rise meaningfully for a sustained period of time, management will likely be forced to slash the dividend.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 T 的第一季度业绩可能会因 HBO Max 的强劲表现以及其核心无线和宽带业务的业绩改善而让一些投资者感到高兴，但我们认为更大的问题没有改变。债务仍然太高，他们的成长型业务仍然被比他们财务灵活性大得多的竞争对手所超越，他们的EV/EBITDA很难像我们看涨期权的那样便宜。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，在公司专注于去杠杆化的同时，投资 T（其股息）的主要原因已被无限期冻结。鉴于他们面临的增长挑战，我们认为这可能需要很长时间才能实现，如果利率在一段时间内大幅上升，管理层可能会被迫削减股息。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, T is not significantly overpriced and we are neutral on its risk-adjusted total returns moving forward. However, we simply do not find it attractive enough to add to our portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，T 的定价并没有明显过高，我们对其未来的风险调整后总回报持中立态度。然而，我们只是觉得它没有足够的吸引力来添加到我们的投资组合中。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424895-at-t-3-reasons-to-avoid\">seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"T":"At&T"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424895-at-t-3-reasons-to-avoid","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176438696","content_text":"Summary\n\nT is a prized dividend stock for many retirees.\nWhile the yield is certainly attractive and the business model is quite stable, we are avoiding the stock.\nWe share three reasons why.\nLooking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of High Yield Investor get exclusive access to our model portfolio.\n\nAT&T (T) is a prized dividend stock for many retirees and for several good reasons. The company has a long history of consistently raising its dividend year-after-year, and, despite interest rates plummeting, the dividend yield stands at one of its most attractive levels ever:\nData by YCharts\nMeanwhile, the company is excited about its HBO Max business, which it believes will enable it to compete in the high-growth streaming business, which will help add growth to its collection of otherwise slow-growth or even shrinking businesses.\n\nsource\nWhile all of this is true - and we are not outright bearish on the company - we are nonetheless avoiding T in our portfolio for the following three reasons:\n#1. Massive Debt Burden\nIn recent years, T has blown up its balance sheet through fool-hardy acquisitions. They wasted $67 billion on afailed acquisition of DirectTVwhich later forced them towrite offa whopping $15.5 billion of it, admitting a near 25% destruction of shareholder value on the transaction. They also made several billion dollars worth of other write-offs last year alone as they have made bad investment after bad investment.\nAs a result, today they stand a staggering ~$169B in net long-term debt:\nData by YCharts\nTen years ago, they held roughly a third of that level of net long-term debt and twenty years ago, they held a small fraction of that debt level. Despite that, their EBITDA has not increased all that much over that span and has in fact remained flat over the past decade.\nData by YCharts\nWith such an enormous debt burden, T will be unable to respond opportunistically moving forward and - instead of improving capital returns to shareholders - it will have to make satisfying its debt masters top priority.\n#2. Weak Business Model\nAdditionally, as its poor acquisition track record implies, T's businesses are mostly very weak and display poor profitability. As the chart below illustrates, T's return on invested capital and return on assets have been pretty abysmal, routinely hovering in the mid-single digits.\nData by YCharts\nAs a result, their spread on the debt they are taking on is very thin, leaving them little margin for error and failing to generate an attractive risk-reward for investors.\nFurthermore, AT&T's best businesses - HBO Max and Fiber - are technology-heavy and are therefore exposed to heavy competition. With its declining legacy businesses weighing on results and its heavy debt burden demanding ever-increasing amounts of attention and capital, it will be very difficult for T to be able to go toe-to-toe with financially stronger competitors in technological races.\nGiven the heavy reliance on debt issuance to generate growth over the past decade, the very weak returns on assets and invested capital, the declining performance of many of its businesses, and the heavy technological competition facing T's few growth industries, we are not optimistic at all that T will be able to generate much growth - if any - in the years to come. This, in turn, will compound their debt problem by making it harder for them to naturally deleverage the balance sheet through growth.\n#3. Unattractive Valuation\nEven worse, T's fat dividend yield and apparently cheap share price are a mere mirage.\nData by YCharts\nMany unsophisticated and unsuspecting retirees simply look at the dividend yield and the share price and think a company is cheap if the share price is near decade lows and the yield is near all-time highs. Furthermore, in a company like T which, until this year, had a 36-year dividend growth streak and has been a fixture in the American telecom industry for decades, many investors believe it is rock solid.\nTheir 65% dividend payout ratio only further solidifies this sentiment as it gives off the impression that the dividend is very safe.\nUnfortunately, due to the aforementioned heavy debt burden, the cheapness of T's share price and the safety of its dividend are both illusions. While the share price merely reflects the market cap (i.e., equity valuation) of a company, a more accurate reflection of its current market valuation is its enterprise value (i.e., total sales price when including equity and debt).\nAs you can see, over the past decade, T's enterprise value has outpaced its market cap by over three times, implying that shares are not nearly as cheap as they might imply on the surface.\nData by YCharts\nAs a result, T's true valuation in enterprise value to EBITDA terms makes the company look very expensive on a historical basis:\nFurthermore, the dividend is not nearly as safe as the 65% payout ratio implies. In fact, ~98% of revenue is currently being consumed by expenses and the dividend, giving management a mere ~2% cushion to continue covering its dividend.\nWhile the business model is diversified and stable enough that this should be sufficient under current conditions, the simple truth is that the company's recent trends are not convincing that it is headed in the right direction. While the chart below does show interest expenses declining relative to revenues and EBITDA over the past quarter, this is an exception to the rule over the past five years, meaning that the company has much to prove in the coming quarters.\n<<<图片加载中。。。>>>Data by YCharts\nFurthermore, inflation is surging, meaning that there will continue to be upward pressure on interest rates. With such a massive debt burden, if interest rates rise materially for an extended period of time, T will quickly see its dividend coverage erode as more and more cash flow is consumed by increased interest costs. As a result, management will be forced to shift priorities from supporting a large and burdensome dividend to diverting as much cash as possible towards paying down debt.\nLast, but not least, T's forays into streaming and fiber - while filled with growth potential - are also very capital-intensive. T will have to spend a lot of money to generate sufficient content to compete with the likes of Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Disney (DIS), and Apple (AAPL) in streaming wars and fiber infrastructure is very expensive to build out and faces limited barriers to entry. As a result of these capital demands, one or both of these business ventures may eventually push T to slash its dividend.\nAlready, the company is signaling that its dividend is not as safe as some may think it is. On theirQ4 2020 earnings call, management announced the inevitable:\n\n We plan to use free cash flow after dividends for the next couple of years to pay down debt. We remain focused on monetizing noncore assets and using those funds for debt reduction as well. We’re committed to\n sustaining our dividend at current levels, and we’ll give top priority to debt reduction, at this time.\n\nWhile it is encouraging to hear them acknowledging their debt problem and announce initiatives to address it, the fact that they have to freeze their dividend at current levels despite being a proud Dividend Aristocrat is very telling.\nInvestor Takeaway\nWhile T'sfirst quarter resultsmay have cheered some investors with strong HBO Max performance and improved performance in its core wireless and broadband businesses, we see the bigger picture issues as unchanged. The debt remains far too high, their growth businesses remain outclassed by competition with far more financial flexibility than them, and their EV/EBITDA is hardly what we would call cheap. Last, but not least, the main reason for investing in T (its dividend) has been frozen indefinitely while the company focuses on deleveraging. Given the growth challenges they face, we believe this might take a long time to accomplish and, if interest rates rise meaningfully for a sustained period of time, management will likely be forced to slash the dividend.\nAll that said, T is not significantly overpriced and we are neutral on its risk-adjusted total returns moving forward. However, we simply do not find it attractive enough to add to our portfolio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"T":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":104149081,"gmtCreate":1620367284843,"gmtModify":1634205718446,"author":{"id":"3574822591965562","authorId":"3574822591965562","name":"Mick_Khie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f8dcd67231e2861de700d3dae71934","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574822591965562","authorIdStr":"3574822591965562"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like ","listText":"Like ","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104149081","repostId":"1176438696","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176438696","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620365036,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1176438696?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 13:23","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons To Avoid AT&T<blockquote>避开 AT&T 的 3 个理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176438696","media":"seeking alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nT is a prized dividend stock for many retirees.\nWhile the yield is certainly attractive and","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>T is a prized dividend stock for many retirees.</li> <li>While the yield is certainly attractive and the business model is quite stable, we are avoiding the stock.</li> <li>We share three reasons why.</li> <li>Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of High Yield Investor get exclusive access to our model portfolio.</li> </ul> AT&T (T) is a prized dividend stock for many retirees and for several good reasons. The company has a long history of consistently raising its dividend year-after-year, and, despite interest rates plummeting, the dividend yield stands at one of its most attractive levels ever:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>对于许多退休人员来说，T 是一只珍贵的股息股票。</li><li>虽然收益率确实很有吸引力，而且商业模式也相当稳定，但我们正在避开该股票。</li><li>我们分享三个原因。</li><li>寻找像这样的创意组合？高收益投资者的成员可以独家访问我们的模型投资组合。</li></ul>对于许多退休人员来说，AT&T (T) 是一只有价值的股息股票，原因有几个。该公司有着年复一年持续提高股息的悠久历史，尽管利率暴跌，但股息收益率仍处于有史以来最具吸引力的水平之一：</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the company is excited about its HBO Max business, which it believes will enable it to compete in the high-growth streaming business, which will help add growth to its collection of otherwise slow-growth or even shrinking businesses.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，该公司对其 HBO Max 业务感到兴奋，相信这将使其能够在高增长的流媒体业务中竞争，这将有助于增加其增长缓慢甚至萎缩的业务的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ec54f00b000550bd7abf30e458736e2\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> While all of this is true - and we are not outright bearish on the company - we are nonetheless avoiding T in our portfolio for the following three reasons:</p><p><blockquote>虽然所有这些都是真的——而且我们并没有完全看跌该公司——但我们出于以下三个原因避免在我们的投资组合中使用 T：</blockquote></p><p> #1. Massive Debt Burden</p><p><blockquote>#1.巨额债务负担</blockquote></p><p> In recent years, T has blown up its balance sheet through fool-hardy acquisitions. They wasted $67 billion on afailed acquisition of DirectTVwhich later forced them towrite offa whopping $15.5 billion of it, admitting a near 25% destruction of shareholder value on the transaction. They also made several billion dollars worth of other write-offs last year alone as they have made bad investment after bad investment.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，T 通过愚蠢的收购扩大了其资产负债表。他们在收购 DirectTV 的失败中浪费了 670 亿美元，后来迫使他们减记了高达 155 亿美元的收购，承认这笔交易造成了近 25% 的股东价值损失。仅去年一年，他们还进行了价值数十亿美元的其他冲销，因为他们进行了一次又一次的糟糕投资。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, today they stand a staggering ~$169B in net long-term debt:</p><p><blockquote>因此，如今他们的净长期债务高达 1690 亿美元：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eb1ad70166998d0cc820e783e8edc53\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> Ten years ago, they held roughly a third of that level of net long-term debt and twenty years ago, they held a small fraction of that debt level. Despite that, their EBITDA has not increased all that much over that span and has in fact remained flat over the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>十年前，他们持有的净长期债务大约是该水平的三分之一，而二十年前，他们持有的债务水平只有该水平的一小部分。尽管如此，他们的 EBITDA 在此期间并没有增加太多，事实上在过去十年中一直持平。</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> With such an enormous debt burden, T will be unable to respond opportunistically moving forward and - instead of improving capital returns to shareholders - it will have to make satisfying its debt masters top priority.</p><p><blockquote>面对如此巨大的债务负担，T将无法机会主义地向前推进，而且它将不得不将满足其债务主人作为首要任务，而不是提高股东的资本回报。</blockquote></p><p> #2. Weak Business Model</p><p><blockquote>#2.薄弱的商业模式</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, as its poor acquisition track record implies, T's businesses are mostly very weak and display poor profitability. As the chart below illustrates, T's return on invested capital and return on assets have been pretty abysmal, routinely hovering in the mid-single digits.</p><p><blockquote>此外，正如其糟糕的收购记录所暗示的那样，T 的业务大多非常薄弱，盈利能力很差。如下图所示，T 的投资资本回报率和资产回报率非常糟糕，通常徘徊在个位数中间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51648e8248efb01d0de23d5eecb0bc96\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> As a result, their spread on the debt they are taking on is very thin, leaving them little margin for error and failing to generate an attractive risk-reward for investors.</p><p><blockquote>因此，他们所承担的债务利差非常小，几乎没有犯错的余地，也无法为投资者产生有吸引力的风险回报。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, AT&T's best businesses - HBO Max and Fiber - are technology-heavy and are therefore exposed to heavy competition. With its declining legacy businesses weighing on results and its heavy debt burden demanding ever-increasing amounts of attention and capital, it will be very difficult for T to be able to go toe-to-toe with financially stronger competitors in technological races.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美国电话电报公司最好的业务——HBO Max和Fiber——技术密集型，因此面临激烈的竞争。由于其不断下滑的传统业务拖累了业绩，而且其沉重的债务负担需要越来越多的关注和资本，T 将很难在技术竞赛中与财务实力更强的竞争对手正面交锋。</blockquote></p><p> Given the heavy reliance on debt issuance to generate growth over the past decade, the very weak returns on assets and invested capital, the declining performance of many of its businesses, and the heavy technological competition facing T's few growth industries, we are not optimistic at all that T will be able to generate much growth - if any - in the years to come. This, in turn, will compound their debt problem by making it harder for them to naturally deleverage the balance sheet through growth.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于过去十年严重依赖发债来创造增长，资产和投资资本的回报非常疲软，其许多业务的业绩下滑，以及T的少数成长型行业面临激烈的技术竞争，我们一点也不乐观T将能够在未来几年产生大量增长（如果有的话）。这反过来又会加剧他们的债务问题，使他们更难通过增长自然地去杠杆化资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p> #3. Unattractive Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#3.没有吸引力的估值</blockquote></p><p> Even worse, T's fat dividend yield and apparently cheap share price are a mere mirage.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，T 的高额股息收益率和明显便宜的股价只是海市蜃楼。</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> Many unsophisticated and unsuspecting retirees simply look at the dividend yield and the share price and think a company is cheap if the share price is near decade lows and the yield is near all-time highs. Furthermore, in a company like T which, until this year, had a 36-year dividend growth streak and has been a fixture in the American telecom industry for decades, many investors believe it is rock solid.</p><p><blockquote>许多不谙世事、毫无戒心的退休人员只是看一下股息收益率和股价，就认为如果股价接近十年低点且收益率接近历史高点，一家公司就很便宜。此外，对于像T这样的公司来说，直到今年，该公司已经连续36年股息增长，并且几十年来一直是美国电信行业的常客，许多投资者认为它是坚如磐石的。</blockquote></p><p> Their 65% dividend payout ratio only further solidifies this sentiment as it gives off the impression that the dividend is very safe.</p><p><blockquote>他们65%的股息支付率只会进一步巩固这种情绪，因为它给人一种股息非常安全的印象。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Unfortunately, due to the aforementioned heavy debt burden, the cheapness of T's share price and the safety of its dividend are both illusions. While the share price merely reflects the market cap (i.e., equity valuation) of a company, a more accurate reflection of its current market valuation is its enterprise value (i.e., total sales price when including equity and debt).</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，由于前述沉重的债务负担，T股股价的便宜和分红的安全性都是假象。虽然股价仅反映公司的市值（即股权估值），但其当前市场估值的更准确反映是其企业价值（即包括股权和债务时的总销售价格）。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, over the past decade, T's enterprise value has outpaced its market cap by over three times, implying that shares are not nearly as cheap as they might imply on the surface.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，在过去十年中，T 的企业价值是其市值的三倍多，这意味着股票并不像表面上暗示的那样便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/237e4dedc7880ce1dbb85d5f3af3f87a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> As a result, T's true valuation in enterprise value to EBITDA terms makes the company look very expensive on a historical basis:</p><p><blockquote>因此，T 按 EBITDA 计算的企业价值的真实估值使得该公司在历史上看起来非常昂贵：</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, the dividend is not nearly as safe as the 65% payout ratio implies. In fact, ~98% of revenue is currently being consumed by expenses and the dividend, giving management a mere ~2% cushion to continue covering its dividend.</p><p><blockquote>此外，股息并不像 65% 的派息率所暗示的那样安全。事实上，目前约 98% 的收入被费用和股息消耗，管理层只有约 2% 的缓冲来继续支付股息。</blockquote></p><p> While the business model is diversified and stable enough that this should be sufficient under current conditions, the simple truth is that the company's recent trends are not convincing that it is headed in the right direction. While the chart below does show interest expenses declining relative to revenues and EBITDA over the past quarter, this is an exception to the rule over the past five years, meaning that the company has much to prove in the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>虽然商业模式足够多元化和稳定，在当前情况下应该已经足够了，但简单的事实是，该公司最近的趋势并不能令人信服地表明它正朝着正确的方向前进。虽然下图确实显示过去一个季度的利息支出相对于收入和 EBITDA 有所下降，但这是过去五年规则的一个例外，这意味着该公司在未来几个季度有很多东西需要证明。</blockquote></p><p> <<<图片加载中。。。>>>Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote><<<图片加载中。。。>>>YCharts提供的数据</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, inflation is surging, meaning that there will continue to be upward pressure on interest rates. With such a massive debt burden, if interest rates rise materially for an extended period of time, T will quickly see its dividend coverage erode as more and more cash flow is consumed by increased interest costs. As a result, management will be forced to shift priorities from supporting a large and burdensome dividend to diverting as much cash as possible towards paying down debt.</p><p><blockquote>此外，通货膨胀正在飙升，这意味着利率将继续面临上行压力。由于债务负担如此巨大，如果利率在较长时间内大幅上升，T 将很快看到其股息覆盖范围受到侵蚀，因为越来越多的现金流被利息成本增加消耗。因此，管理层将被迫将优先事项从支持大量且繁重的股息转向将尽可能多的现金用于偿还债务。</blockquote></p><p> Last, but not least, T's forays into streaming and fiber - while filled with growth potential - are also very capital-intensive. T will have to spend a lot of money to generate sufficient content to compete with the likes of Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Disney (DIS), and Apple (AAPL) in streaming wars and fiber infrastructure is very expensive to build out and faces limited barriers to entry. As a result of these capital demands, one or both of these business ventures may eventually push T to slash its dividend.</p><p><blockquote>最后但并非最不重要的一点是，T 进军流媒体和光纤领域——虽然充满增长潜力——也是非常资本密集型的。T 将不得不花费大量资金来生成足够的内容，以在流媒体大战中与 Netflix (NFLX)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、迪士尼 (DIS) 和苹果 (AAPL) 等公司竞争，而光纤基础设施的建设成本非常高，并且面临有限的准入壁垒。由于这些资本需求，这些商业冒险中的一项或两项最终可能会促使 T 削减股息。</blockquote></p><p> Already, the company is signaling that its dividend is not as safe as some may think it is. On theirQ4 2020 earnings call, management announced the inevitable:</p><p><blockquote>该公司已经发出信号，表明其股息并不像一些人想象的那么安全。在 2020 年第四季度盈利看涨期权上，管理层宣布了不可避免的事情：</blockquote></p><p> We plan to use free cash flow after dividends for the next couple of years to pay down debt. We remain focused on monetizing noncore assets and using those funds for debt reduction as well. We’re committed to <b>sustaining our dividend at current levels</b>, and we’ll give top priority to debt reduction, at this time. While it is encouraging to hear them acknowledging their debt problem and announce initiatives to address it, the fact that they have to freeze their dividend at current levels despite being a proud Dividend Aristocrat is very telling.</p><p><blockquote>我们计划在未来几年利用股息后的自由现金流来偿还债务。我们仍然专注于非核心资产货币化，并将这些资金用于债务削减。我们致力于<b>将我们的股息维持在当前水平</b>目前，我们将把减债放在首位。虽然听到他们承认自己的债务问题并宣布解决这一问题的举措令人鼓舞，但尽管他们是自豪的股息贵族，但他们不得不将股息冻结在当前水平，这一事实很能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> Investor Takeaway</p><p><blockquote>投资者要点</blockquote></p><p> While T'sfirst quarter resultsmay have cheered some investors with strong HBO Max performance and improved performance in its core wireless and broadband businesses, we see the bigger picture issues as unchanged. The debt remains far too high, their growth businesses remain outclassed by competition with far more financial flexibility than them, and their EV/EBITDA is hardly what we would call cheap. Last, but not least, the main reason for investing in T (its dividend) has been frozen indefinitely while the company focuses on deleveraging. Given the growth challenges they face, we believe this might take a long time to accomplish and, if interest rates rise meaningfully for a sustained period of time, management will likely be forced to slash the dividend.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 T 的第一季度业绩可能会因 HBO Max 的强劲表现以及其核心无线和宽带业务的业绩改善而让一些投资者感到高兴，但我们认为更大的问题没有改变。债务仍然太高，他们的成长型业务仍然被比他们财务灵活性大得多的竞争对手所超越，他们的EV/EBITDA很难像我们看涨期权的那样便宜。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，在公司专注于去杠杆化的同时，投资 T（其股息）的主要原因已被无限期冻结。鉴于他们面临的增长挑战，我们认为这可能需要很长时间才能实现，如果利率在一段时间内大幅上升，管理层可能会被迫削减股息。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, T is not significantly overpriced and we are neutral on its risk-adjusted total returns moving forward. However, we simply do not find it attractive enough to add to our portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，T 的定价并没有明显过高，我们对其未来的风险调整后总回报持中立态度。然而，我们只是觉得它没有足够的吸引力来添加到我们的投资组合中。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons To Avoid AT&T<blockquote>避开 AT&T 的 3 个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons To Avoid AT&T<blockquote>避开 AT&T 的 3 个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-07 13:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>T is a prized dividend stock for many retirees.</li> <li>While the yield is certainly attractive and the business model is quite stable, we are avoiding the stock.</li> <li>We share three reasons why.</li> <li>Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of High Yield Investor get exclusive access to our model portfolio.</li> </ul> AT&T (T) is a prized dividend stock for many retirees and for several good reasons. The company has a long history of consistently raising its dividend year-after-year, and, despite interest rates plummeting, the dividend yield stands at one of its most attractive levels ever:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>对于许多退休人员来说，T 是一只珍贵的股息股票。</li><li>虽然收益率确实很有吸引力，而且商业模式也相当稳定，但我们正在避开该股票。</li><li>我们分享三个原因。</li><li>寻找像这样的创意组合？高收益投资者的成员可以独家访问我们的模型投资组合。</li></ul>对于许多退休人员来说，AT&T (T) 是一只有价值的股息股票，原因有几个。该公司有着年复一年持续提高股息的悠久历史，尽管利率暴跌，但股息收益率仍处于有史以来最具吸引力的水平之一：</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the company is excited about its HBO Max business, which it believes will enable it to compete in the high-growth streaming business, which will help add growth to its collection of otherwise slow-growth or even shrinking businesses.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，该公司对其 HBO Max 业务感到兴奋，相信这将使其能够在高增长的流媒体业务中竞争，这将有助于增加其增长缓慢甚至萎缩的业务的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ec54f00b000550bd7abf30e458736e2\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> While all of this is true - and we are not outright bearish on the company - we are nonetheless avoiding T in our portfolio for the following three reasons:</p><p><blockquote>虽然所有这些都是真的——而且我们并没有完全看跌该公司——但我们出于以下三个原因避免在我们的投资组合中使用 T：</blockquote></p><p> #1. Massive Debt Burden</p><p><blockquote>#1.巨额债务负担</blockquote></p><p> In recent years, T has blown up its balance sheet through fool-hardy acquisitions. They wasted $67 billion on afailed acquisition of DirectTVwhich later forced them towrite offa whopping $15.5 billion of it, admitting a near 25% destruction of shareholder value on the transaction. They also made several billion dollars worth of other write-offs last year alone as they have made bad investment after bad investment.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，T 通过愚蠢的收购扩大了其资产负债表。他们在收购 DirectTV 的失败中浪费了 670 亿美元，后来迫使他们减记了高达 155 亿美元的收购，承认这笔交易造成了近 25% 的股东价值损失。仅去年一年，他们还进行了价值数十亿美元的其他冲销，因为他们进行了一次又一次的糟糕投资。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, today they stand a staggering ~$169B in net long-term debt:</p><p><blockquote>因此，如今他们的净长期债务高达 1690 亿美元：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eb1ad70166998d0cc820e783e8edc53\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> Ten years ago, they held roughly a third of that level of net long-term debt and twenty years ago, they held a small fraction of that debt level. Despite that, their EBITDA has not increased all that much over that span and has in fact remained flat over the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>十年前，他们持有的净长期债务大约是该水平的三分之一，而二十年前，他们持有的债务水平只有该水平的一小部分。尽管如此，他们的 EBITDA 在此期间并没有增加太多，事实上在过去十年中一直持平。</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> With such an enormous debt burden, T will be unable to respond opportunistically moving forward and - instead of improving capital returns to shareholders - it will have to make satisfying its debt masters top priority.</p><p><blockquote>面对如此巨大的债务负担，T将无法机会主义地向前推进，而且它将不得不将满足其债务主人作为首要任务，而不是提高股东的资本回报。</blockquote></p><p> #2. Weak Business Model</p><p><blockquote>#2.薄弱的商业模式</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, as its poor acquisition track record implies, T's businesses are mostly very weak and display poor profitability. As the chart below illustrates, T's return on invested capital and return on assets have been pretty abysmal, routinely hovering in the mid-single digits.</p><p><blockquote>此外，正如其糟糕的收购记录所暗示的那样，T 的业务大多非常薄弱，盈利能力很差。如下图所示，T 的投资资本回报率和资产回报率非常糟糕，通常徘徊在个位数中间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51648e8248efb01d0de23d5eecb0bc96\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> As a result, their spread on the debt they are taking on is very thin, leaving them little margin for error and failing to generate an attractive risk-reward for investors.</p><p><blockquote>因此，他们所承担的债务利差非常小，几乎没有犯错的余地，也无法为投资者产生有吸引力的风险回报。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, AT&T's best businesses - HBO Max and Fiber - are technology-heavy and are therefore exposed to heavy competition. With its declining legacy businesses weighing on results and its heavy debt burden demanding ever-increasing amounts of attention and capital, it will be very difficult for T to be able to go toe-to-toe with financially stronger competitors in technological races.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美国电话电报公司最好的业务——HBO Max和Fiber——技术密集型，因此面临激烈的竞争。由于其不断下滑的传统业务拖累了业绩，而且其沉重的债务负担需要越来越多的关注和资本，T 将很难在技术竞赛中与财务实力更强的竞争对手正面交锋。</blockquote></p><p> Given the heavy reliance on debt issuance to generate growth over the past decade, the very weak returns on assets and invested capital, the declining performance of many of its businesses, and the heavy technological competition facing T's few growth industries, we are not optimistic at all that T will be able to generate much growth - if any - in the years to come. This, in turn, will compound their debt problem by making it harder for them to naturally deleverage the balance sheet through growth.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于过去十年严重依赖发债来创造增长，资产和投资资本的回报非常疲软，其许多业务的业绩下滑，以及T的少数成长型行业面临激烈的技术竞争，我们一点也不乐观T将能够在未来几年产生大量增长（如果有的话）。这反过来又会加剧他们的债务问题，使他们更难通过增长自然地去杠杆化资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p> #3. Unattractive Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#3.没有吸引力的估值</blockquote></p><p> Even worse, T's fat dividend yield and apparently cheap share price are a mere mirage.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，T 的高额股息收益率和明显便宜的股价只是海市蜃楼。</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> Many unsophisticated and unsuspecting retirees simply look at the dividend yield and the share price and think a company is cheap if the share price is near decade lows and the yield is near all-time highs. Furthermore, in a company like T which, until this year, had a 36-year dividend growth streak and has been a fixture in the American telecom industry for decades, many investors believe it is rock solid.</p><p><blockquote>许多不谙世事、毫无戒心的退休人员只是看一下股息收益率和股价，就认为如果股价接近十年低点且收益率接近历史高点，一家公司就很便宜。此外，对于像T这样的公司来说，直到今年，该公司已经连续36年股息增长，并且几十年来一直是美国电信行业的常客，许多投资者认为它是坚如磐石的。</blockquote></p><p> Their 65% dividend payout ratio only further solidifies this sentiment as it gives off the impression that the dividend is very safe.</p><p><blockquote>他们65%的股息支付率只会进一步巩固这种情绪，因为它给人一种股息非常安全的印象。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Unfortunately, due to the aforementioned heavy debt burden, the cheapness of T's share price and the safety of its dividend are both illusions. While the share price merely reflects the market cap (i.e., equity valuation) of a company, a more accurate reflection of its current market valuation is its enterprise value (i.e., total sales price when including equity and debt).</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，由于前述沉重的债务负担，T股股价的便宜和分红的安全性都是假象。虽然股价仅反映公司的市值（即股权估值），但其当前市场估值的更准确反映是其企业价值（即包括股权和债务时的总销售价格）。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, over the past decade, T's enterprise value has outpaced its market cap by over three times, implying that shares are not nearly as cheap as they might imply on the surface.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，在过去十年中，T 的企业价值是其市值的三倍多，这意味着股票并不像表面上暗示的那样便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/237e4dedc7880ce1dbb85d5f3af3f87a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p> As a result, T's true valuation in enterprise value to EBITDA terms makes the company look very expensive on a historical basis:</p><p><blockquote>因此，T 按 EBITDA 计算的企业价值的真实估值使得该公司在历史上看起来非常昂贵：</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, the dividend is not nearly as safe as the 65% payout ratio implies. In fact, ~98% of revenue is currently being consumed by expenses and the dividend, giving management a mere ~2% cushion to continue covering its dividend.</p><p><blockquote>此外，股息并不像 65% 的派息率所暗示的那样安全。事实上，目前约 98% 的收入被费用和股息消耗，管理层只有约 2% 的缓冲来继续支付股息。</blockquote></p><p> While the business model is diversified and stable enough that this should be sufficient under current conditions, the simple truth is that the company's recent trends are not convincing that it is headed in the right direction. While the chart below does show interest expenses declining relative to revenues and EBITDA over the past quarter, this is an exception to the rule over the past five years, meaning that the company has much to prove in the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>虽然商业模式足够多元化和稳定，在当前情况下应该已经足够了，但简单的事实是，该公司最近的趋势并不能令人信服地表明它正朝着正确的方向前进。虽然下图确实显示过去一个季度的利息支出相对于收入和 EBITDA 有所下降，但这是过去五年规则的一个例外，这意味着该公司在未来几个季度有很多东西需要证明。</blockquote></p><p> <<<图片加载中。。。>>>Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote><<<图片加载中。。。>>>YCharts提供的数据</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, inflation is surging, meaning that there will continue to be upward pressure on interest rates. With such a massive debt burden, if interest rates rise materially for an extended period of time, T will quickly see its dividend coverage erode as more and more cash flow is consumed by increased interest costs. As a result, management will be forced to shift priorities from supporting a large and burdensome dividend to diverting as much cash as possible towards paying down debt.</p><p><blockquote>此外，通货膨胀正在飙升，这意味着利率将继续面临上行压力。由于债务负担如此巨大，如果利率在较长时间内大幅上升，T 将很快看到其股息覆盖范围受到侵蚀，因为越来越多的现金流被利息成本增加消耗。因此，管理层将被迫将优先事项从支持大量且繁重的股息转向将尽可能多的现金用于偿还债务。</blockquote></p><p> Last, but not least, T's forays into streaming and fiber - while filled with growth potential - are also very capital-intensive. T will have to spend a lot of money to generate sufficient content to compete with the likes of Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Disney (DIS), and Apple (AAPL) in streaming wars and fiber infrastructure is very expensive to build out and faces limited barriers to entry. As a result of these capital demands, one or both of these business ventures may eventually push T to slash its dividend.</p><p><blockquote>最后但并非最不重要的一点是，T 进军流媒体和光纤领域——虽然充满增长潜力——也是非常资本密集型的。T 将不得不花费大量资金来生成足够的内容，以在流媒体大战中与 Netflix (NFLX)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、迪士尼 (DIS) 和苹果 (AAPL) 等公司竞争，而光纤基础设施的建设成本非常高，并且面临有限的准入壁垒。由于这些资本需求，这些商业冒险中的一项或两项最终可能会促使 T 削减股息。</blockquote></p><p> Already, the company is signaling that its dividend is not as safe as some may think it is. On theirQ4 2020 earnings call, management announced the inevitable:</p><p><blockquote>该公司已经发出信号，表明其股息并不像一些人想象的那么安全。在 2020 年第四季度盈利看涨期权上，管理层宣布了不可避免的事情：</blockquote></p><p> We plan to use free cash flow after dividends for the next couple of years to pay down debt. We remain focused on monetizing noncore assets and using those funds for debt reduction as well. We’re committed to <b>sustaining our dividend at current levels</b>, and we’ll give top priority to debt reduction, at this time. While it is encouraging to hear them acknowledging their debt problem and announce initiatives to address it, the fact that they have to freeze their dividend at current levels despite being a proud Dividend Aristocrat is very telling.</p><p><blockquote>我们计划在未来几年利用股息后的自由现金流来偿还债务。我们仍然专注于非核心资产货币化，并将这些资金用于债务削减。我们致力于<b>将我们的股息维持在当前水平</b>目前，我们将把减债放在首位。虽然听到他们承认自己的债务问题并宣布解决这一问题的举措令人鼓舞，但尽管他们是自豪的股息贵族，但他们不得不将股息冻结在当前水平，这一事实很能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> Investor Takeaway</p><p><blockquote>投资者要点</blockquote></p><p> While T'sfirst quarter resultsmay have cheered some investors with strong HBO Max performance and improved performance in its core wireless and broadband businesses, we see the bigger picture issues as unchanged. The debt remains far too high, their growth businesses remain outclassed by competition with far more financial flexibility than them, and their EV/EBITDA is hardly what we would call cheap. Last, but not least, the main reason for investing in T (its dividend) has been frozen indefinitely while the company focuses on deleveraging. Given the growth challenges they face, we believe this might take a long time to accomplish and, if interest rates rise meaningfully for a sustained period of time, management will likely be forced to slash the dividend.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 T 的第一季度业绩可能会因 HBO Max 的强劲表现以及其核心无线和宽带业务的业绩改善而让一些投资者感到高兴，但我们认为更大的问题没有改变。债务仍然太高，他们的成长型业务仍然被比他们财务灵活性大得多的竞争对手所超越，他们的EV/EBITDA很难像我们看涨期权的那样便宜。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，在公司专注于去杠杆化的同时，投资 T（其股息）的主要原因已被无限期冻结。鉴于他们面临的增长挑战，我们认为这可能需要很长时间才能实现，如果利率在一段时间内大幅上升，管理层可能会被迫削减股息。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, T is not significantly overpriced and we are neutral on its risk-adjusted total returns moving forward. However, we simply do not find it attractive enough to add to our portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，T 的定价并没有明显过高，我们对其未来的风险调整后总回报持中立态度。然而，我们只是觉得它没有足够的吸引力来添加到我们的投资组合中。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424895-at-t-3-reasons-to-avoid\">seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"T":"At&T"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424895-at-t-3-reasons-to-avoid","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176438696","content_text":"Summary\n\nT is a prized dividend stock for many retirees.\nWhile the yield is certainly attractive and the business model is quite stable, we are avoiding the stock.\nWe share three reasons why.\nLooking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of High Yield Investor get exclusive access to our model portfolio.\n\nAT&T (T) is a prized dividend stock for many retirees and for several good reasons. The company has a long history of consistently raising its dividend year-after-year, and, despite interest rates plummeting, the dividend yield stands at one of its most attractive levels ever:\nData by YCharts\nMeanwhile, the company is excited about its HBO Max business, which it believes will enable it to compete in the high-growth streaming business, which will help add growth to its collection of otherwise slow-growth or even shrinking businesses.\n\nsource\nWhile all of this is true - and we are not outright bearish on the company - we are nonetheless avoiding T in our portfolio for the following three reasons:\n#1. Massive Debt Burden\nIn recent years, T has blown up its balance sheet through fool-hardy acquisitions. They wasted $67 billion on afailed acquisition of DirectTVwhich later forced them towrite offa whopping $15.5 billion of it, admitting a near 25% destruction of shareholder value on the transaction. They also made several billion dollars worth of other write-offs last year alone as they have made bad investment after bad investment.\nAs a result, today they stand a staggering ~$169B in net long-term debt:\nData by YCharts\nTen years ago, they held roughly a third of that level of net long-term debt and twenty years ago, they held a small fraction of that debt level. Despite that, their EBITDA has not increased all that much over that span and has in fact remained flat over the past decade.\nData by YCharts\nWith such an enormous debt burden, T will be unable to respond opportunistically moving forward and - instead of improving capital returns to shareholders - it will have to make satisfying its debt masters top priority.\n#2. Weak Business Model\nAdditionally, as its poor acquisition track record implies, T's businesses are mostly very weak and display poor profitability. As the chart below illustrates, T's return on invested capital and return on assets have been pretty abysmal, routinely hovering in the mid-single digits.\nData by YCharts\nAs a result, their spread on the debt they are taking on is very thin, leaving them little margin for error and failing to generate an attractive risk-reward for investors.\nFurthermore, AT&T's best businesses - HBO Max and Fiber - are technology-heavy and are therefore exposed to heavy competition. With its declining legacy businesses weighing on results and its heavy debt burden demanding ever-increasing amounts of attention and capital, it will be very difficult for T to be able to go toe-to-toe with financially stronger competitors in technological races.\nGiven the heavy reliance on debt issuance to generate growth over the past decade, the very weak returns on assets and invested capital, the declining performance of many of its businesses, and the heavy technological competition facing T's few growth industries, we are not optimistic at all that T will be able to generate much growth - if any - in the years to come. This, in turn, will compound their debt problem by making it harder for them to naturally deleverage the balance sheet through growth.\n#3. Unattractive Valuation\nEven worse, T's fat dividend yield and apparently cheap share price are a mere mirage.\nData by YCharts\nMany unsophisticated and unsuspecting retirees simply look at the dividend yield and the share price and think a company is cheap if the share price is near decade lows and the yield is near all-time highs. Furthermore, in a company like T which, until this year, had a 36-year dividend growth streak and has been a fixture in the American telecom industry for decades, many investors believe it is rock solid.\nTheir 65% dividend payout ratio only further solidifies this sentiment as it gives off the impression that the dividend is very safe.\nUnfortunately, due to the aforementioned heavy debt burden, the cheapness of T's share price and the safety of its dividend are both illusions. While the share price merely reflects the market cap (i.e., equity valuation) of a company, a more accurate reflection of its current market valuation is its enterprise value (i.e., total sales price when including equity and debt).\nAs you can see, over the past decade, T's enterprise value has outpaced its market cap by over three times, implying that shares are not nearly as cheap as they might imply on the surface.\nData by YCharts\nAs a result, T's true valuation in enterprise value to EBITDA terms makes the company look very expensive on a historical basis:\nFurthermore, the dividend is not nearly as safe as the 65% payout ratio implies. In fact, ~98% of revenue is currently being consumed by expenses and the dividend, giving management a mere ~2% cushion to continue covering its dividend.\nWhile the business model is diversified and stable enough that this should be sufficient under current conditions, the simple truth is that the company's recent trends are not convincing that it is headed in the right direction. While the chart below does show interest expenses declining relative to revenues and EBITDA over the past quarter, this is an exception to the rule over the past five years, meaning that the company has much to prove in the coming quarters.\n<<<图片加载中。。。>>>Data by YCharts\nFurthermore, inflation is surging, meaning that there will continue to be upward pressure on interest rates. With such a massive debt burden, if interest rates rise materially for an extended period of time, T will quickly see its dividend coverage erode as more and more cash flow is consumed by increased interest costs. As a result, management will be forced to shift priorities from supporting a large and burdensome dividend to diverting as much cash as possible towards paying down debt.\nLast, but not least, T's forays into streaming and fiber - while filled with growth potential - are also very capital-intensive. T will have to spend a lot of money to generate sufficient content to compete with the likes of Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Disney (DIS), and Apple (AAPL) in streaming wars and fiber infrastructure is very expensive to build out and faces limited barriers to entry. As a result of these capital demands, one or both of these business ventures may eventually push T to slash its dividend.\nAlready, the company is signaling that its dividend is not as safe as some may think it is. On theirQ4 2020 earnings call, management announced the inevitable:\n\n We plan to use free cash flow after dividends for the next couple of years to pay down debt. We remain focused on monetizing noncore assets and using those funds for debt reduction as well. We’re committed to\n sustaining our dividend at current levels, and we’ll give top priority to debt reduction, at this time.\n\nWhile it is encouraging to hear them acknowledging their debt problem and announce initiatives to address it, the fact that they have to freeze their dividend at current levels despite being a proud Dividend Aristocrat is very telling.\nInvestor Takeaway\nWhile T'sfirst quarter resultsmay have cheered some investors with strong HBO Max performance and improved performance in its core wireless and broadband businesses, we see the bigger picture issues as unchanged. The debt remains far too high, their growth businesses remain outclassed by competition with far more financial flexibility than them, and their EV/EBITDA is hardly what we would call cheap. Last, but not least, the main reason for investing in T (its dividend) has been frozen indefinitely while the company focuses on deleveraging. Given the growth challenges they face, we believe this might take a long time to accomplish and, if interest rates rise meaningfully for a sustained period of time, management will likely be forced to slash the dividend.\nAll that said, T is not significantly overpriced and we are neutral on its risk-adjusted total returns moving forward. However, we simply do not find it attractive enough to add to our portfolio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"T":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
