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LeminovoG

LeminovoG

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2021-06-15

Nice

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2021-06-23

Yeeet

Tesla’s Bitcoin Bet Is Going Bad. Here’s How Much It Could Lose.<blockquote>特斯拉的比特币赌注正在变坏。这是它可能会损失多少。</blockquote>

2021-06-24

Wow what the

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2021-06-21

Wat de foook

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2021-06-24

Huat lo

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2021-06-19

Gg.com nice weewooo likr n scribscrub

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2021-06-18

Yolo

AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>

2021-05-29

Big gei

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2021-06-17

Wow amazing

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2021-06-16

Wow dam okay sick

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2021-05-29

Does this work

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2021-06-21

What de nae nibba

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2021-06-18

Yeet dab skkrrrt

Crypto Mining Could Give Huge Boost to Seagate and Western Digital Stock<blockquote>加密货币挖矿可能会极大提振希捷和西部数据的股票</blockquote>

2021-06-16

Hehe nice

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2021-05-29

Hello darkness my old friend

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2021-06-29

Aye i too wanna retire

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2021-06-23

Booboo

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2021-06-22

Yeet

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Here’s How Much It Could Lose.<blockquote>特斯拉的比特币赌注正在变坏。这是它可能会损失多少。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179305353","media":"Barron's","summary":"The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recogniz","content":"<p>The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recognize a loss on its holdings if the cryptocurrency doesn’t rebound by the end of the month. That would raise more concerns about earnings quality at the electric-vehicle company.</p><p><blockquote>比特币最近的下跌使价格突破了一个门槛，如果加密货币在本月底之前没有反弹，这可能会迫使特斯拉承认其持有的股票出现损失。这将引发人们对这家电动汽车公司盈利质量的更多担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Early on Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading at about $29,500, down 9.5% and about 54% below the 52-week high of almost $65,000 it reached in April. It was trading up 0.6% at $32,697.20 at 2:02 p.m.</p><p><blockquote>周二早些时候，比特币股价约为29,500美元，下跌9.5%，较4月份触及的近65,000美元的52周高点低约54%。截至下午2:02，该股上涨0.6%，至32,697.20美元。</blockquote></p><p> The drop is a problem for Tesla because accounting regulators consider Bitcoin a collectible, so investments in the currency are held at cost. Gains are only recorded when Bitcoin is sold, but companies have to recognize losses when the currency falls below its carrying value. Corporate investors get the pain of losses, but not the boost from gains, while they hold the currency.</p><p><blockquote>这种下跌对特斯拉来说是一个问题，因为会计监管机构认为比特币是一种收藏品，因此对该货币的投资按成本持有。收益仅在出售比特币时记录，但当货币跌破账面价值时，公司必须确认损失。企业投资者在持有货币时会感受到损失的痛苦，但不会感受到收益的提振。</blockquote></p><p> The accounting is different than for stocks, or traditional currencies, which are marked to market, with both gains and losses reflected in earnings even if a holding isn’t sold.</p><p><blockquote>这种会计处理与股票或传统货币不同，后者按市场计价，即使持有的股票没有出售，收益和损失也会反映在收益中。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla was thought to have purchased Bitcoin at about $36,000, the price prevailing when the company announced its investment in February, but the price appears to have been closer to $32,000, based on its first-quarter financial filing. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on its Bitcoin holdings or trading.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉被认为以约36,000美元的价格收购了比特币，这是该公司2月份宣布投资时的价格，但根据其第一季度财务文件，价格似乎已接近32,000美元。特斯拉没有立即回应就其比特币持股或交易发表评论的请求。</blockquote></p><p> The filing said the value of Tesla’s holding was $2.48 billion as of March 31, when the price was at almost $59,000. That indicates the company held about 42,000 coins. Tesla listed the holding value of those coins—the price it paid for them—at $1.33 billion. for an average cost per coin of $31,620.</p><p><blockquote>文件称，截至3月31日，特斯拉所持股份的价值为24.8亿美元，当时价格接近5.9万美元。这表明该公司持有约42,000枚硬币。特斯拉列出的这些硬币的持有价值（即其购买价格）为13.3亿美元。每枚硬币的平均成本为31,620美元。</blockquote></p><p> If Bitcoin is trading at $29,500 at the end of June, when Tesla wraps up its second quarter, the company would be sitting on a loss of almost $90 million.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币在6月底特斯拉第二季度结束时的交易价格为29,500美元，那么该公司将亏损近9000万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla recognized a gain on sales of Bitcoin sale of roughly $100 million in the first quarter. That helped the company earn more than Wall Street analysts expected, but also created some confusion for investors. Some analysts raised concerns about the quality of Tesla’s earnings, reasoning that earnings “beats” should be driven by the underlying business, and not by one-time items.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第一季度确认比特币销售收益约为1亿美元。这帮助该公司赚取了高于华尔街分析师预期的收入，但也给投资者带来了一些困惑。一些分析师对特斯拉的盈利质量表示担忧，认为盈利“超出预期”应该由基础业务推动，而不是由一次性项目推动。</blockquote></p><p> It looks as if analysts and investors will have to deal with another one time item in the company’s second-quarter report. This one won’t be a positive.</p><p><blockquote>看起来分析师和投资者将不得不处理该公司第二季度报告中的另一个一次性项目。这个不会是积极的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock was down a little in early trading, while the S&amp;P 500 was marginally higher. Bitcoin could be part of the reason.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价早盘小幅下跌，而标普500则小幅走高。比特币可能是部分原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla’s Bitcoin Bet Is Going Bad. 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Here’s How Much It Could Lose.<blockquote>特斯拉的比特币赌注正在变坏。这是它可能会损失多少。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 17:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recognize a loss on its holdings if the cryptocurrency doesn’t rebound by the end of the month. That would raise more concerns about earnings quality at the electric-vehicle company.</p><p><blockquote>比特币最近的下跌使价格突破了一个门槛，如果加密货币在本月底之前没有反弹，这可能会迫使特斯拉承认其持有的股票出现损失。这将引发人们对这家电动汽车公司盈利质量的更多担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Early on Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading at about $29,500, down 9.5% and about 54% below the 52-week high of almost $65,000 it reached in April. It was trading up 0.6% at $32,697.20 at 2:02 p.m.</p><p><blockquote>周二早些时候，比特币股价约为29,500美元，下跌9.5%，较4月份触及的近65,000美元的52周高点低约54%。截至下午2:02，该股上涨0.6%，至32,697.20美元。</blockquote></p><p> The drop is a problem for Tesla because accounting regulators consider Bitcoin a collectible, so investments in the currency are held at cost. Gains are only recorded when Bitcoin is sold, but companies have to recognize losses when the currency falls below its carrying value. Corporate investors get the pain of losses, but not the boost from gains, while they hold the currency.</p><p><blockquote>这种下跌对特斯拉来说是一个问题，因为会计监管机构认为比特币是一种收藏品，因此对该货币的投资按成本持有。收益仅在出售比特币时记录，但当货币跌破账面价值时，公司必须确认损失。企业投资者在持有货币时会感受到损失的痛苦，但不会感受到收益的提振。</blockquote></p><p> The accounting is different than for stocks, or traditional currencies, which are marked to market, with both gains and losses reflected in earnings even if a holding isn’t sold.</p><p><blockquote>这种会计处理与股票或传统货币不同，后者按市场计价，即使持有的股票没有出售，收益和损失也会反映在收益中。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla was thought to have purchased Bitcoin at about $36,000, the price prevailing when the company announced its investment in February, but the price appears to have been closer to $32,000, based on its first-quarter financial filing. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on its Bitcoin holdings or trading.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉被认为以约36,000美元的价格收购了比特币，这是该公司2月份宣布投资时的价格，但根据其第一季度财务文件，价格似乎已接近32,000美元。特斯拉没有立即回应就其比特币持股或交易发表评论的请求。</blockquote></p><p> The filing said the value of Tesla’s holding was $2.48 billion as of March 31, when the price was at almost $59,000. That indicates the company held about 42,000 coins. Tesla listed the holding value of those coins—the price it paid for them—at $1.33 billion. for an average cost per coin of $31,620.</p><p><blockquote>文件称，截至3月31日，特斯拉所持股份的价值为24.8亿美元，当时价格接近5.9万美元。这表明该公司持有约42,000枚硬币。特斯拉列出的这些硬币的持有价值（即其购买价格）为13.3亿美元。每枚硬币的平均成本为31,620美元。</blockquote></p><p> If Bitcoin is trading at $29,500 at the end of June, when Tesla wraps up its second quarter, the company would be sitting on a loss of almost $90 million.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币在6月底特斯拉第二季度结束时的交易价格为29,500美元，那么该公司将亏损近9000万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla recognized a gain on sales of Bitcoin sale of roughly $100 million in the first quarter. That helped the company earn more than Wall Street analysts expected, but also created some confusion for investors. Some analysts raised concerns about the quality of Tesla’s earnings, reasoning that earnings “beats” should be driven by the underlying business, and not by one-time items.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第一季度确认比特币销售收益约为1亿美元。这帮助该公司赚取了高于华尔街分析师预期的收入，但也给投资者带来了一些困惑。一些分析师对特斯拉的盈利质量表示担忧，认为盈利“超出预期”应该由基础业务推动，而不是由一次性项目推动。</blockquote></p><p> It looks as if analysts and investors will have to deal with another one time item in the company’s second-quarter report. This one won’t be a positive.</p><p><blockquote>看起来分析师和投资者将不得不处理该公司第二季度报告中的另一个一次性项目。这个不会是积极的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock was down a little in early trading, while the S&amp;P 500 was marginally higher. Bitcoin could be part of the reason.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价早盘小幅下跌，而标普500则小幅走高。比特币可能是部分原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bitcoin-losses-accounting-51624373337?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bitcoin-losses-accounting-51624373337?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179305353","content_text":"The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recognize a loss on its holdings if the cryptocurrency doesn’t rebound by the end of the month. That would raise more concerns about earnings quality at the electric-vehicle company.\nEarly on Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading at about $29,500, down 9.5% and about 54% below the 52-week high of almost $65,000 it reached in April. It was trading up 0.6% at $32,697.20 at 2:02 p.m.\nThe drop is a problem for Tesla because accounting regulators consider Bitcoin a collectible, so investments in the currency are held at cost. Gains are only recorded when Bitcoin is sold, but companies have to recognize losses when the currency falls below its carrying value. Corporate investors get the pain of losses, but not the boost from gains, while they hold the currency.\nThe accounting is different than for stocks, or traditional currencies, which are marked to market, with both gains and losses reflected in earnings even if a holding isn’t sold.\nTesla was thought to have purchased Bitcoin at about $36,000, the price prevailing when the company announced its investment in February, but the price appears to have been closer to $32,000, based on its first-quarter financial filing. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on its Bitcoin holdings or trading.\nThe filing said the value of Tesla’s holding was $2.48 billion as of March 31, when the price was at almost $59,000. That indicates the company held about 42,000 coins. Tesla listed the holding value of those coins—the price it paid for them—at $1.33 billion. for an average cost per coin of $31,620.\nIf Bitcoin is trading at $29,500 at the end of June, when Tesla wraps up its second quarter, the company would be sitting on a loss of almost $90 million.\nTesla recognized a gain on sales of Bitcoin sale of roughly $100 million in the first quarter. That helped the company earn more than Wall Street analysts expected, but also created some confusion for investors. Some analysts raised concerns about the quality of Tesla’s earnings, reasoning that earnings “beats” should be driven by the underlying business, and not by one-time items.\nIt looks as if analysts and investors will have to deal with another one time item in the company’s second-quarter report. This one won’t be a positive.\nTesla stock was down a little in early trading, while the S&P 500 was marginally higher. Bitcoin could be part of the reason.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123777032,"gmtCreate":1624441990926,"gmtModify":1631888672362,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Booboo","listText":"Booboo","text":"Booboo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123777032","repostId":"1119094763","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129297907,"gmtCreate":1624373183009,"gmtModify":1631888672375,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeet","listText":"Yeet","text":"Yeet","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129297907","repostId":"2145056554","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167344486,"gmtCreate":1624249443145,"gmtModify":1631888672395,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wat de foook","listText":"Wat de foook","text":"Wat de foook","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167344486","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167357667,"gmtCreate":1624249098959,"gmtModify":1631888672401,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What de nae nibba","listText":"What de nae nibba","text":"What de nae nibba","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167357667","repostId":"2145088542","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162749335,"gmtCreate":1624077422727,"gmtModify":1631888672416,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeetus deletus my feetus","listText":"Yeetus deletus my feetus","text":"Yeetus deletus my feetus","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162749335","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","SNDL":"SNDL Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"SNDL":0.9,"CLOV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162740505,"gmtCreate":1624077397207,"gmtModify":1631888672426,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wooow!","listText":"Wooow!","text":"Wooow!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162740505","repostId":"1156696708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3021,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162783304,"gmtCreate":1624075664108,"gmtModify":1634011001339,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gg.com nice weewooo likr n scribscrub","listText":"Gg.com nice weewooo likr n scribscrub","text":"Gg.com nice weewooo likr n scribscrub","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162783304","repostId":"1156696708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166920708,"gmtCreate":1623988707904,"gmtModify":1634024528180,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What de&nbsp;","listText":"What de&nbsp;","text":"What de","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166920708","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166920517,"gmtCreate":1623988696339,"gmtModify":1634024528402,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"title":"CRBP TO THE MOON???!","htmlText":"CRBP TO THE MOON?Lol.It eeeez what it eeeeezGive us the moneyI love moneyThanks guys for coming to my ted talkCyall at the moon","listText":"CRBP TO THE MOON?Lol.It eeeez what it eeeeezGive us the moneyI love moneyThanks guys for coming to my ted talkCyall at the moon","text":"CRBP TO THE MOON?Lol.It eeeez what it eeeeezGive us the moneyI love moneyThanks guys for coming to my ted talkCyall at the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166920517","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166961434,"gmtCreate":1623988455828,"gmtModify":1634024534218,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yolo","listText":"Yolo","text":"Yolo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166961434","repostId":"1131310015","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131310015","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623987347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131310015?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131310015","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pul","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您划清界限AMC。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本和<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——Netflix、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您划清界限AMC。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本和<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——Netflix、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131310015","content_text":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.\nSell before the other speculators do.\n\nRgStudio/E+ via Getty Images\nWhat are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer forThe Wall Street Journal, and John Brooks, author of “Business Adventures”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.\nInvestor vs. trader vs. speculator\nJason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021Wall Street Journalcolumn:\n\n “\n Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”\n\nSo why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assetsnevercame up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.\nMr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.\nA 2022 AMC earnings forecast\nI start with the key assumptions:\n\nMy time frame for reference is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.\nThe national box officeis the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.\nAMC market share.I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.\nAdmissions gross margin.This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.\nFood expenses as a percent of sales.I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs andmultiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.\nFood and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.\nOperating expensesare the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.\nWe’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:\n\nThe ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:\n\nDepreciation/amortizationis a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.\nInterest expenseshould decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.\n\nThe gravitational pull of earnings\nWe arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.\nThe bottom line - no support for investors.AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words ofTrading Places, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”\nThe speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale\nMillennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The bookBusiness Adventuresby John Brooks,published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.\nShorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:\n\n “\n Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…”\n\nThe sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.\n\n “\n He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”\n\nToday we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.\n\n “\n One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.”\n\nSomething to think about. What was Saunders to do?\n\n “[\n Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments.”\n\nPretty clever, no? No:\n\n “\n At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”\n\nUh oh. What now?\n\n“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”\n\nOuch.\nBuyers beware\nAs Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?\nAMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166900403,"gmtCreate":1623986851202,"gmtModify":1634024578312,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeet dab skkrrrt","listText":"Yeet dab skkrrrt","text":"Yeet dab skkrrrt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166900403","repostId":"1112448941","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112448941","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623984287,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112448941?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 10:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto Mining Could Give Huge Boost to Seagate and Western Digital Stock<blockquote>加密货币挖矿可能会极大提振希捷和西部数据的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112448941","media":"Barrons","summary":"Disk-drive demand continues to be warped by the rapid adoption of Chia, a cryptocurrency that relies","content":"<p>Disk-drive demand continues to be warped by the rapid adoption of Chia, a cryptocurrency that relies on large capacity drives to “farm” new coins.</p><p><blockquote>磁盘驱动器的需求继续被Chia的快速采用所扭曲，Chia是一种依赖大容量驱动器来“培育”新硬币的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> , Chia uses a different model than other cryptocurrencies to create new coins. Most cryptocurrencies rely on a “proof of work” model to verify transactions: Miners solve complex mathematical problems that require lots of computational power to earn coins, which explains why traditional mining is so energy-intensive.</p><p><blockquote>，Chia使用不同于其他加密货币的模式来创造新的硬币。大多数加密货币依赖于“工作量证明”模型来验证交易：矿工解决复杂的数学问题，需要大量的计算能力来赚取硬币，这解释了为什么传统挖矿如此耗能。</blockquote></p><p> Chia’s approach, by contrast, is tied to storage capacity committed to being used on the blockchain, rather than computational might. And that is warping demand for high-capacity drives.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，Chia的方法与致力于在区块链上使用的存储容量有关，而不是计算能力。这扭曲了对高容量驱动器的需求。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note on Thursday, Loop Capital analyst&nbsp;Ananda Baruah&nbsp;asserts that both&nbsp;SeagateTechnology Holdings (ticker: STX) and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC)—which together control most of the world’s disk-drive production—could see a sustained boost to both pricing and profits from the Chia-driven acceleration in demand for high-capacity drives.</p><p><blockquote>Loop Capital分析师Ananda Baruah在周四的一份研究报告中断言，希捷科技控股公司（股票代码：STX）和西部数据（WDC）——这两家公司共同控制着全球大部分磁盘驱动器生产——的定价和利润可能会持续上涨来自Chia推动的高容量驱动器需求加速。</blockquote></p><p> If that demand is sustained, he asserts, Seagate’s annualized earnings could reach $12 a share, well above the Street’s consensus forecasts of profits of $5.52 a share for the June 2021 fiscal year, $7.48 for fiscal 2022, and $7.71 for fiscal 2023. For Western Digital, he writes, profits could reach the $10-$12-per-share range, which compares to Street estimates of $3.83 for the June 2021 fiscal year, $8.87 for fiscal 2022, and $10.54 for fiscal 2023.</p><p><blockquote>他断言，如果这种需求持续下去，希捷的年化收益可能达到每股12美元，远高于华尔街普遍预测的2021年6月财年每股利润5.52美元、2022财年每股利润7.48美元和2023财年每股利润7.71美元。他写道，对于西部数据来说，每股利润可能达到10-12美元，而华尔街预计2021年6月财年为3.83美元，2022财年为8.87美元，2023财年为10.54美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the impact on drive pricing from Chia farming has largely been at the retail level and through distributors, Baruah sees the trend overflowing to contract pricing if the Chia trend is sustained, with higher prices possible for drives sold to both cloud-computing companies and major data-storage systems companies like Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE),Dell Technologies‘ (DELL) EMC unit, and&nbsp;NetApp(NTAP).</p><p><blockquote>虽然Chia farming对驱动器定价的影响主要是在零售层面和通过分销商，但Baruah认为，如果Chia趋势持续下去，这种趋势将蔓延到合同定价，销售给云计算公司和主要数据的驱动器价格可能会更高-慧与(HPE)、戴尔科技(DELL)EMC部门和NetApp(NTAP)等存储系统公司。</blockquote></p><p> He contends that both Seagate and Western Digital have begun holding conversations on shifting average selling prices higher. And he adds that “if all of this holds, gross margin expansion could have a long way to go.”</p><p><blockquote>他认为，希捷和西部数据已经开始就提高平均售价进行对话。他补充道，“如果所有这些都成立，毛利率扩张可能还有很长的路要走。”</blockquote></p><p> With distributor inventories depleted, Baruah adds, the hard-drive suppliers are “in prime position” heading into the calendar second half to see elevated pricing. He notes that the last time there was an event-driven price reset in the drive market was 10 years ago, when severe flooding in Thailand knocked out a substantial portion of drive manufacturing capacity. This time, he says, there is less excess capacity in the system, with limited suppliers of both recording heads and magnetic media constraining the ability to satisfy demand.</p><p><blockquote>Baruah补充说，随着分销商库存的耗尽，硬盘供应商在进入下半年时“处于有利地位”，可以看到价格上涨。他指出，驱动器市场上上一次出现事件驱动的价格重置是在10年前，当时泰国的严重洪水摧毁了很大一部分驱动器制造能力。他说，这一次，系统中的过剩容量减少了，记录头和磁介质的供应商有限，限制了满足需求的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Baruah maintains his Buy ratings on both Seagate and Western Digital. He has price targets of $100 on Seagate and $90 on Western. Both stocks are lower in recent trading, with Seagate off 4.2%, at $88.82, and Western Digital down 3.4%, at $70.77. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;index is down 0.04%.</p><p><blockquote>Baruah维持对希捷和西部数据的买入评级。他对希捷的目标价为100美元，对西部航空的目标价为90美元。两只股票在近期交易中均走低，希捷下跌4.2%，至88.82美元，西部数据下跌3.4%，至70.77美元。标准普尔500指数下跌0.04%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto Mining Could Give Huge Boost to Seagate and Western Digital Stock<blockquote>加密货币挖矿可能会极大提振希捷和西部数据的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto Mining Could Give Huge Boost to Seagate and Western Digital Stock<blockquote>加密货币挖矿可能会极大提振希捷和西部数据的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 10:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Disk-drive demand continues to be warped by the rapid adoption of Chia, a cryptocurrency that relies on large capacity drives to “farm” new coins.</p><p><blockquote>磁盘驱动器的需求继续被Chia的快速采用所扭曲，Chia是一种依赖大容量驱动器来“培育”新硬币的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> , Chia uses a different model than other cryptocurrencies to create new coins. Most cryptocurrencies rely on a “proof of work” model to verify transactions: Miners solve complex mathematical problems that require lots of computational power to earn coins, which explains why traditional mining is so energy-intensive.</p><p><blockquote>，Chia使用不同于其他加密货币的模式来创造新的硬币。大多数加密货币依赖于“工作量证明”模型来验证交易：矿工解决复杂的数学问题，需要大量的计算能力来赚取硬币，这解释了为什么传统挖矿如此耗能。</blockquote></p><p> Chia’s approach, by contrast, is tied to storage capacity committed to being used on the blockchain, rather than computational might. And that is warping demand for high-capacity drives.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，Chia的方法与致力于在区块链上使用的存储容量有关，而不是计算能力。这扭曲了对高容量驱动器的需求。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note on Thursday, Loop Capital analyst&nbsp;Ananda Baruah&nbsp;asserts that both&nbsp;SeagateTechnology Holdings (ticker: STX) and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC)—which together control most of the world’s disk-drive production—could see a sustained boost to both pricing and profits from the Chia-driven acceleration in demand for high-capacity drives.</p><p><blockquote>Loop Capital分析师Ananda Baruah在周四的一份研究报告中断言，希捷科技控股公司（股票代码：STX）和西部数据（WDC）——这两家公司共同控制着全球大部分磁盘驱动器生产——的定价和利润可能会持续上涨来自Chia推动的高容量驱动器需求加速。</blockquote></p><p> If that demand is sustained, he asserts, Seagate’s annualized earnings could reach $12 a share, well above the Street’s consensus forecasts of profits of $5.52 a share for the June 2021 fiscal year, $7.48 for fiscal 2022, and $7.71 for fiscal 2023. For Western Digital, he writes, profits could reach the $10-$12-per-share range, which compares to Street estimates of $3.83 for the June 2021 fiscal year, $8.87 for fiscal 2022, and $10.54 for fiscal 2023.</p><p><blockquote>他断言，如果这种需求持续下去，希捷的年化收益可能达到每股12美元，远高于华尔街普遍预测的2021年6月财年每股利润5.52美元、2022财年每股利润7.48美元和2023财年每股利润7.71美元。他写道，对于西部数据来说，每股利润可能达到10-12美元，而华尔街预计2021年6月财年为3.83美元，2022财年为8.87美元，2023财年为10.54美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the impact on drive pricing from Chia farming has largely been at the retail level and through distributors, Baruah sees the trend overflowing to contract pricing if the Chia trend is sustained, with higher prices possible for drives sold to both cloud-computing companies and major data-storage systems companies like Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE),Dell Technologies‘ (DELL) EMC unit, and&nbsp;NetApp(NTAP).</p><p><blockquote>虽然Chia farming对驱动器定价的影响主要是在零售层面和通过分销商，但Baruah认为，如果Chia趋势持续下去，这种趋势将蔓延到合同定价，销售给云计算公司和主要数据的驱动器价格可能会更高-慧与(HPE)、戴尔科技(DELL)EMC部门和NetApp(NTAP)等存储系统公司。</blockquote></p><p> He contends that both Seagate and Western Digital have begun holding conversations on shifting average selling prices higher. And he adds that “if all of this holds, gross margin expansion could have a long way to go.”</p><p><blockquote>他认为，希捷和西部数据已经开始就提高平均售价进行对话。他补充道，“如果所有这些都成立，毛利率扩张可能还有很长的路要走。”</blockquote></p><p> With distributor inventories depleted, Baruah adds, the hard-drive suppliers are “in prime position” heading into the calendar second half to see elevated pricing. He notes that the last time there was an event-driven price reset in the drive market was 10 years ago, when severe flooding in Thailand knocked out a substantial portion of drive manufacturing capacity. This time, he says, there is less excess capacity in the system, with limited suppliers of both recording heads and magnetic media constraining the ability to satisfy demand.</p><p><blockquote>Baruah补充说，随着分销商库存的耗尽，硬盘供应商在进入下半年时“处于有利地位”，可以看到价格上涨。他指出，驱动器市场上上一次出现事件驱动的价格重置是在10年前，当时泰国的严重洪水摧毁了很大一部分驱动器制造能力。他说，这一次，系统中的过剩容量减少了，记录头和磁介质的供应商有限，限制了满足需求的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Baruah maintains his Buy ratings on both Seagate and Western Digital. He has price targets of $100 on Seagate and $90 on Western. Both stocks are lower in recent trading, with Seagate off 4.2%, at $88.82, and Western Digital down 3.4%, at $70.77. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;index is down 0.04%.</p><p><blockquote>Baruah维持对希捷和西部数据的买入评级。他对希捷的目标价为100美元，对西部航空的目标价为90美元。两只股票在近期交易中均走低，希捷下跌4.2%，至88.82美元，西部数据下跌3.4%，至70.77美元。标准普尔500指数下跌0.04%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/crypto-mining-could-give-huge-boost-to-seagate-and-western-digital-stock-51623944488?mod=hp_DAY_7\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STX":"希捷科技","WDC":"西部数据"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/crypto-mining-could-give-huge-boost-to-seagate-and-western-digital-stock-51623944488?mod=hp_DAY_7","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112448941","content_text":"Disk-drive demand continues to be warped by the rapid adoption of Chia, a cryptocurrency that relies on large capacity drives to “farm” new coins.\n, Chia uses a different model than other cryptocurrencies to create new coins. Most cryptocurrencies rely on a “proof of work” model to verify transactions: Miners solve complex mathematical problems that require lots of computational power to earn coins, which explains why traditional mining is so energy-intensive.\nChia’s approach, by contrast, is tied to storage capacity committed to being used on the blockchain, rather than computational might. And that is warping demand for high-capacity drives.\nIn a research note on Thursday, Loop Capital analyst Ananda Baruah asserts that both SeagateTechnology Holdings (ticker: STX) and Western Digital(WDC)—which together control most of the world’s disk-drive production—could see a sustained boost to both pricing and profits from the Chia-driven acceleration in demand for high-capacity drives.\nIf that demand is sustained, he asserts, Seagate’s annualized earnings could reach $12 a share, well above the Street’s consensus forecasts of profits of $5.52 a share for the June 2021 fiscal year, $7.48 for fiscal 2022, and $7.71 for fiscal 2023. For Western Digital, he writes, profits could reach the $10-$12-per-share range, which compares to Street estimates of $3.83 for the June 2021 fiscal year, $8.87 for fiscal 2022, and $10.54 for fiscal 2023.\nWhile the impact on drive pricing from Chia farming has largely been at the retail level and through distributors, Baruah sees the trend overflowing to contract pricing if the Chia trend is sustained, with higher prices possible for drives sold to both cloud-computing companies and major data-storage systems companies like Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE),Dell Technologies‘ (DELL) EMC unit, and NetApp(NTAP).\nHe contends that both Seagate and Western Digital have begun holding conversations on shifting average selling prices higher. And he adds that “if all of this holds, gross margin expansion could have a long way to go.”\nWith distributor inventories depleted, Baruah adds, the hard-drive suppliers are “in prime position” heading into the calendar second half to see elevated pricing. He notes that the last time there was an event-driven price reset in the drive market was 10 years ago, when severe flooding in Thailand knocked out a substantial portion of drive manufacturing capacity. This time, he says, there is less excess capacity in the system, with limited suppliers of both recording heads and magnetic media constraining the ability to satisfy demand.\nBaruah maintains his Buy ratings on both Seagate and Western Digital. He has price targets of $100 on Seagate and $90 on Western. Both stocks are lower in recent trading, with Seagate off 4.2%, at $88.82, and Western Digital down 3.4%, at $70.77. The S&P 500 index is down 0.04%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WDC":0.9,"STX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161610899,"gmtCreate":1623921624211,"gmtModify":1634025848199,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Blink!","listText":"Blink!","text":"Blink!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161610899","repostId":"2143979567","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161637178,"gmtCreate":1623921596394,"gmtModify":1634025848905,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rips","listText":"Rips","text":"Rips","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161637178","repostId":"2144771148","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161635484,"gmtCreate":1623921519248,"gmtModify":1634025849713,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow 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17:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla’s Bitcoin Bet Is Going Bad. Here’s How Much It Could Lose.<blockquote>特斯拉的比特币赌注正在变坏。这是它可能会损失多少。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179305353","media":"Barron's","summary":"The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recogniz","content":"<p>The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recognize a loss on its holdings if the cryptocurrency doesn’t rebound by the end of the month. That would raise more concerns about earnings quality at the electric-vehicle company.</p><p><blockquote>比特币最近的下跌使价格突破了一个门槛，如果加密货币在本月底之前没有反弹，这可能会迫使特斯拉承认其持有的股票出现损失。这将引发人们对这家电动汽车公司盈利质量的更多担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Early on Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading at about $29,500, down 9.5% and about 54% below the 52-week high of almost $65,000 it reached in April. It was trading up 0.6% at $32,697.20 at 2:02 p.m.</p><p><blockquote>周二早些时候，比特币股价约为29,500美元，下跌9.5%，较4月份触及的近65,000美元的52周高点低约54%。截至下午2:02，该股上涨0.6%，至32,697.20美元。</blockquote></p><p> The drop is a problem for Tesla because accounting regulators consider Bitcoin a collectible, so investments in the currency are held at cost. Gains are only recorded when Bitcoin is sold, but companies have to recognize losses when the currency falls below its carrying value. Corporate investors get the pain of losses, but not the boost from gains, while they hold the currency.</p><p><blockquote>这种下跌对特斯拉来说是一个问题，因为会计监管机构认为比特币是一种收藏品，因此对该货币的投资按成本持有。收益仅在出售比特币时记录，但当货币跌破账面价值时，公司必须确认损失。企业投资者在持有货币时会感受到损失的痛苦，但不会感受到收益的提振。</blockquote></p><p> The accounting is different than for stocks, or traditional currencies, which are marked to market, with both gains and losses reflected in earnings even if a holding isn’t sold.</p><p><blockquote>这种会计处理与股票或传统货币不同，后者按市场计价，即使持有的股票没有出售，收益和损失也会反映在收益中。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla was thought to have purchased Bitcoin at about $36,000, the price prevailing when the company announced its investment in February, but the price appears to have been closer to $32,000, based on its first-quarter financial filing. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on its Bitcoin holdings or trading.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉被认为以约36,000美元的价格收购了比特币，这是该公司2月份宣布投资时的价格，但根据其第一季度财务文件，价格似乎已接近32,000美元。特斯拉没有立即回应就其比特币持股或交易发表评论的请求。</blockquote></p><p> The filing said the value of Tesla’s holding was $2.48 billion as of March 31, when the price was at almost $59,000. That indicates the company held about 42,000 coins. Tesla listed the holding value of those coins—the price it paid for them—at $1.33 billion. for an average cost per coin of $31,620.</p><p><blockquote>文件称，截至3月31日，特斯拉所持股份的价值为24.8亿美元，当时价格接近5.9万美元。这表明该公司持有约42,000枚硬币。特斯拉列出的这些硬币的持有价值（即其购买价格）为13.3亿美元。每枚硬币的平均成本为31,620美元。</blockquote></p><p> If Bitcoin is trading at $29,500 at the end of June, when Tesla wraps up its second quarter, the company would be sitting on a loss of almost $90 million.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币在6月底特斯拉第二季度结束时的交易价格为29,500美元，那么该公司将亏损近9000万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla recognized a gain on sales of Bitcoin sale of roughly $100 million in the first quarter. That helped the company earn more than Wall Street analysts expected, but also created some confusion for investors. Some analysts raised concerns about the quality of Tesla’s earnings, reasoning that earnings “beats” should be driven by the underlying business, and not by one-time items.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第一季度确认比特币销售收益约为1亿美元。这帮助该公司赚取了高于华尔街分析师预期的收入，但也给投资者带来了一些困惑。一些分析师对特斯拉的盈利质量表示担忧，认为盈利“超出预期”应该由基础业务推动，而不是由一次性项目推动。</blockquote></p><p> It looks as if analysts and investors will have to deal with another one time item in the company’s second-quarter report. This one won’t be a positive.</p><p><blockquote>看起来分析师和投资者将不得不处理该公司第二季度报告中的另一个一次性项目。这个不会是积极的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock was down a little in early trading, while the S&amp;P 500 was marginally higher. Bitcoin could be part of the reason.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价早盘小幅下跌，而标普500则小幅走高。比特币可能是部分原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla’s Bitcoin Bet Is Going Bad. Here’s How Much It Could Lose.<blockquote>特斯拉的比特币赌注正在变坏。这是它可能会损失多少。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla’s Bitcoin Bet Is Going Bad. Here’s How Much It Could Lose.<blockquote>特斯拉的比特币赌注正在变坏。这是它可能会损失多少。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 17:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recognize a loss on its holdings if the cryptocurrency doesn’t rebound by the end of the month. That would raise more concerns about earnings quality at the electric-vehicle company.</p><p><blockquote>比特币最近的下跌使价格突破了一个门槛，如果加密货币在本月底之前没有反弹，这可能会迫使特斯拉承认其持有的股票出现损失。这将引发人们对这家电动汽车公司盈利质量的更多担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Early on Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading at about $29,500, down 9.5% and about 54% below the 52-week high of almost $65,000 it reached in April. It was trading up 0.6% at $32,697.20 at 2:02 p.m.</p><p><blockquote>周二早些时候，比特币股价约为29,500美元，下跌9.5%，较4月份触及的近65,000美元的52周高点低约54%。截至下午2:02，该股上涨0.6%，至32,697.20美元。</blockquote></p><p> The drop is a problem for Tesla because accounting regulators consider Bitcoin a collectible, so investments in the currency are held at cost. Gains are only recorded when Bitcoin is sold, but companies have to recognize losses when the currency falls below its carrying value. Corporate investors get the pain of losses, but not the boost from gains, while they hold the currency.</p><p><blockquote>这种下跌对特斯拉来说是一个问题，因为会计监管机构认为比特币是一种收藏品，因此对该货币的投资按成本持有。收益仅在出售比特币时记录，但当货币跌破账面价值时，公司必须确认损失。企业投资者在持有货币时会感受到损失的痛苦，但不会感受到收益的提振。</blockquote></p><p> The accounting is different than for stocks, or traditional currencies, which are marked to market, with both gains and losses reflected in earnings even if a holding isn’t sold.</p><p><blockquote>这种会计处理与股票或传统货币不同，后者按市场计价，即使持有的股票没有出售，收益和损失也会反映在收益中。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla was thought to have purchased Bitcoin at about $36,000, the price prevailing when the company announced its investment in February, but the price appears to have been closer to $32,000, based on its first-quarter financial filing. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on its Bitcoin holdings or trading.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉被认为以约36,000美元的价格收购了比特币，这是该公司2月份宣布投资时的价格，但根据其第一季度财务文件，价格似乎已接近32,000美元。特斯拉没有立即回应就其比特币持股或交易发表评论的请求。</blockquote></p><p> The filing said the value of Tesla’s holding was $2.48 billion as of March 31, when the price was at almost $59,000. That indicates the company held about 42,000 coins. Tesla listed the holding value of those coins—the price it paid for them—at $1.33 billion. for an average cost per coin of $31,620.</p><p><blockquote>文件称，截至3月31日，特斯拉所持股份的价值为24.8亿美元，当时价格接近5.9万美元。这表明该公司持有约42,000枚硬币。特斯拉列出的这些硬币的持有价值（即其购买价格）为13.3亿美元。每枚硬币的平均成本为31,620美元。</blockquote></p><p> If Bitcoin is trading at $29,500 at the end of June, when Tesla wraps up its second quarter, the company would be sitting on a loss of almost $90 million.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币在6月底特斯拉第二季度结束时的交易价格为29,500美元，那么该公司将亏损近9000万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla recognized a gain on sales of Bitcoin sale of roughly $100 million in the first quarter. That helped the company earn more than Wall Street analysts expected, but also created some confusion for investors. Some analysts raised concerns about the quality of Tesla’s earnings, reasoning that earnings “beats” should be driven by the underlying business, and not by one-time items.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第一季度确认比特币销售收益约为1亿美元。这帮助该公司赚取了高于华尔街分析师预期的收入，但也给投资者带来了一些困惑。一些分析师对特斯拉的盈利质量表示担忧，认为盈利“超出预期”应该由基础业务推动，而不是由一次性项目推动。</blockquote></p><p> It looks as if analysts and investors will have to deal with another one time item in the company’s second-quarter report. This one won’t be a positive.</p><p><blockquote>看起来分析师和投资者将不得不处理该公司第二季度报告中的另一个一次性项目。这个不会是积极的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock was down a little in early trading, while the S&amp;P 500 was marginally higher. Bitcoin could be part of the reason.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价早盘小幅下跌，而标普500则小幅走高。比特币可能是部分原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bitcoin-losses-accounting-51624373337?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bitcoin-losses-accounting-51624373337?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179305353","content_text":"The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recognize a loss on its holdings if the cryptocurrency doesn’t rebound by the end of the month. That would raise more concerns about earnings quality at the electric-vehicle company.\nEarly on Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading at about $29,500, down 9.5% and about 54% below the 52-week high of almost $65,000 it reached in April. It was trading up 0.6% at $32,697.20 at 2:02 p.m.\nThe drop is a problem for Tesla because accounting regulators consider Bitcoin a collectible, so investments in the currency are held at cost. Gains are only recorded when Bitcoin is sold, but companies have to recognize losses when the currency falls below its carrying value. Corporate investors get the pain of losses, but not the boost from gains, while they hold the currency.\nThe accounting is different than for stocks, or traditional currencies, which are marked to market, with both gains and losses reflected in earnings even if a holding isn’t sold.\nTesla was thought to have purchased Bitcoin at about $36,000, the price prevailing when the company announced its investment in February, but the price appears to have been closer to $32,000, based on its first-quarter financial filing. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on its Bitcoin holdings or trading.\nThe filing said the value of Tesla’s holding was $2.48 billion as of March 31, when the price was at almost $59,000. That indicates the company held about 42,000 coins. Tesla listed the holding value of those coins—the price it paid for them—at $1.33 billion. for an average cost per coin of $31,620.\nIf Bitcoin is trading at $29,500 at the end of June, when Tesla wraps up its second quarter, the company would be sitting on a loss of almost $90 million.\nTesla recognized a gain on sales of Bitcoin sale of roughly $100 million in the first quarter. That helped the company earn more than Wall Street analysts expected, but also created some confusion for investors. Some analysts raised concerns about the quality of Tesla’s earnings, reasoning that earnings “beats” should be driven by the underlying business, and not by one-time items.\nIt looks as if analysts and investors will have to deal with another one time item in the company’s second-quarter report. This one won’t be a positive.\nTesla stock was down a little in early trading, while the S&P 500 was marginally higher. Bitcoin could be part of the reason.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121466218,"gmtCreate":1624489844234,"gmtModify":1631888672341,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow what the","listText":"Wow what the","text":"Wow what 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lo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128454883","repostId":"1100684336","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162783304,"gmtCreate":1624075664108,"gmtModify":1634011001339,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gg.com nice weewooo likr n scribscrub","listText":"Gg.com nice weewooo likr n scribscrub","text":"Gg.com nice weewooo likr n scribscrub","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162783304","repostId":"1156696708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166961434,"gmtCreate":1623988455828,"gmtModify":1634024534218,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yolo","listText":"Yolo","text":"Yolo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166961434","repostId":"1131310015","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131310015","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623987347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131310015?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131310015","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pul","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您划清界限AMC。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本和<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——Netflix、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您划清界限AMC。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本和<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——Netflix、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131310015","content_text":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.\nSell before the other speculators do.\n\nRgStudio/E+ via Getty Images\nWhat are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer forThe Wall Street Journal, and John Brooks, author of “Business Adventures”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.\nInvestor vs. trader vs. speculator\nJason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021Wall Street Journalcolumn:\n\n “\n Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”\n\nSo why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assetsnevercame up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.\nMr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.\nA 2022 AMC earnings forecast\nI start with the key assumptions:\n\nMy time frame for reference is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.\nThe national box officeis the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.\nAMC market share.I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.\nAdmissions gross margin.This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.\nFood expenses as a percent of sales.I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs andmultiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.\nFood and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.\nOperating expensesare the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.\nWe’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:\n\nThe ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:\n\nDepreciation/amortizationis a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.\nInterest expenseshould decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.\n\nThe gravitational pull of earnings\nWe arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.\nThe bottom line - no support for investors.AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words ofTrading Places, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”\nThe speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale\nMillennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The bookBusiness Adventuresby John Brooks,published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.\nShorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:\n\n “\n Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…”\n\nThe sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.\n\n “\n He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”\n\nToday we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.\n\n “\n One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.”\n\nSomething to think about. What was Saunders to do?\n\n “[\n Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments.”\n\nPretty clever, no? No:\n\n “\n At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”\n\nUh oh. What now?\n\n“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”\n\nOuch.\nBuyers beware\nAs Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?\nAMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. 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skkrrrt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166900403","repostId":"1112448941","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112448941","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623984287,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112448941?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 10:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto Mining Could Give Huge Boost to Seagate and Western Digital Stock<blockquote>加密货币挖矿可能会极大提振希捷和西部数据的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112448941","media":"Barrons","summary":"Disk-drive demand continues to be warped by the rapid adoption of Chia, a cryptocurrency that relies","content":"<p>Disk-drive demand continues to be warped by the rapid adoption of Chia, a cryptocurrency that relies on large capacity drives to “farm” new coins.</p><p><blockquote>磁盘驱动器的需求继续被Chia的快速采用所扭曲，Chia是一种依赖大容量驱动器来“培育”新硬币的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> , Chia uses a different model than other cryptocurrencies to create new coins. Most cryptocurrencies rely on a “proof of work” model to verify transactions: Miners solve complex mathematical problems that require lots of computational power to earn coins, which explains why traditional mining is so energy-intensive.</p><p><blockquote>，Chia使用不同于其他加密货币的模式来创造新的硬币。大多数加密货币依赖于“工作量证明”模型来验证交易：矿工解决复杂的数学问题，需要大量的计算能力来赚取硬币，这解释了为什么传统挖矿如此耗能。</blockquote></p><p> Chia’s approach, by contrast, is tied to storage capacity committed to being used on the blockchain, rather than computational might. And that is warping demand for high-capacity drives.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，Chia的方法与致力于在区块链上使用的存储容量有关，而不是计算能力。这扭曲了对高容量驱动器的需求。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note on Thursday, Loop Capital analyst&nbsp;Ananda Baruah&nbsp;asserts that both&nbsp;SeagateTechnology Holdings (ticker: STX) and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC)—which together control most of the world’s disk-drive production—could see a sustained boost to both pricing and profits from the Chia-driven acceleration in demand for high-capacity drives.</p><p><blockquote>Loop Capital分析师Ananda Baruah在周四的一份研究报告中断言，希捷科技控股公司（股票代码：STX）和西部数据（WDC）——这两家公司共同控制着全球大部分磁盘驱动器生产——的定价和利润可能会持续上涨来自Chia推动的高容量驱动器需求加速。</blockquote></p><p> If that demand is sustained, he asserts, Seagate’s annualized earnings could reach $12 a share, well above the Street’s consensus forecasts of profits of $5.52 a share for the June 2021 fiscal year, $7.48 for fiscal 2022, and $7.71 for fiscal 2023. For Western Digital, he writes, profits could reach the $10-$12-per-share range, which compares to Street estimates of $3.83 for the June 2021 fiscal year, $8.87 for fiscal 2022, and $10.54 for fiscal 2023.</p><p><blockquote>他断言，如果这种需求持续下去，希捷的年化收益可能达到每股12美元，远高于华尔街普遍预测的2021年6月财年每股利润5.52美元、2022财年每股利润7.48美元和2023财年每股利润7.71美元。他写道，对于西部数据来说，每股利润可能达到10-12美元，而华尔街预计2021年6月财年为3.83美元，2022财年为8.87美元，2023财年为10.54美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the impact on drive pricing from Chia farming has largely been at the retail level and through distributors, Baruah sees the trend overflowing to contract pricing if the Chia trend is sustained, with higher prices possible for drives sold to both cloud-computing companies and major data-storage systems companies like Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE),Dell Technologies‘ (DELL) EMC unit, and&nbsp;NetApp(NTAP).</p><p><blockquote>虽然Chia farming对驱动器定价的影响主要是在零售层面和通过分销商，但Baruah认为，如果Chia趋势持续下去，这种趋势将蔓延到合同定价，销售给云计算公司和主要数据的驱动器价格可能会更高-慧与(HPE)、戴尔科技(DELL)EMC部门和NetApp(NTAP)等存储系统公司。</blockquote></p><p> He contends that both Seagate and Western Digital have begun holding conversations on shifting average selling prices higher. And he adds that “if all of this holds, gross margin expansion could have a long way to go.”</p><p><blockquote>他认为，希捷和西部数据已经开始就提高平均售价进行对话。他补充道，“如果所有这些都成立，毛利率扩张可能还有很长的路要走。”</blockquote></p><p> With distributor inventories depleted, Baruah adds, the hard-drive suppliers are “in prime position” heading into the calendar second half to see elevated pricing. He notes that the last time there was an event-driven price reset in the drive market was 10 years ago, when severe flooding in Thailand knocked out a substantial portion of drive manufacturing capacity. This time, he says, there is less excess capacity in the system, with limited suppliers of both recording heads and magnetic media constraining the ability to satisfy demand.</p><p><blockquote>Baruah补充说，随着分销商库存的耗尽，硬盘供应商在进入下半年时“处于有利地位”，可以看到价格上涨。他指出，驱动器市场上上一次出现事件驱动的价格重置是在10年前，当时泰国的严重洪水摧毁了很大一部分驱动器制造能力。他说，这一次，系统中的过剩容量减少了，记录头和磁介质的供应商有限，限制了满足需求的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Baruah maintains his Buy ratings on both Seagate and Western Digital. He has price targets of $100 on Seagate and $90 on Western. Both stocks are lower in recent trading, with Seagate off 4.2%, at $88.82, and Western Digital down 3.4%, at $70.77. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;index is down 0.04%.</p><p><blockquote>Baruah维持对希捷和西部数据的买入评级。他对希捷的目标价为100美元，对西部航空的目标价为90美元。两只股票在近期交易中均走低，希捷下跌4.2%，至88.82美元，西部数据下跌3.4%，至70.77美元。标准普尔500指数下跌0.04%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto Mining Could Give Huge Boost to Seagate and Western Digital Stock<blockquote>加密货币挖矿可能会极大提振希捷和西部数据的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto Mining Could Give Huge Boost to Seagate and Western Digital Stock<blockquote>加密货币挖矿可能会极大提振希捷和西部数据的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 10:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Disk-drive demand continues to be warped by the rapid adoption of Chia, a cryptocurrency that relies on large capacity drives to “farm” new coins.</p><p><blockquote>磁盘驱动器的需求继续被Chia的快速采用所扭曲，Chia是一种依赖大容量驱动器来“培育”新硬币的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> , Chia uses a different model than other cryptocurrencies to create new coins. Most cryptocurrencies rely on a “proof of work” model to verify transactions: Miners solve complex mathematical problems that require lots of computational power to earn coins, which explains why traditional mining is so energy-intensive.</p><p><blockquote>，Chia使用不同于其他加密货币的模式来创造新的硬币。大多数加密货币依赖于“工作量证明”模型来验证交易：矿工解决复杂的数学问题，需要大量的计算能力来赚取硬币，这解释了为什么传统挖矿如此耗能。</blockquote></p><p> Chia’s approach, by contrast, is tied to storage capacity committed to being used on the blockchain, rather than computational might. And that is warping demand for high-capacity drives.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，Chia的方法与致力于在区块链上使用的存储容量有关，而不是计算能力。这扭曲了对高容量驱动器的需求。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note on Thursday, Loop Capital analyst&nbsp;Ananda Baruah&nbsp;asserts that both&nbsp;SeagateTechnology Holdings (ticker: STX) and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC)—which together control most of the world’s disk-drive production—could see a sustained boost to both pricing and profits from the Chia-driven acceleration in demand for high-capacity drives.</p><p><blockquote>Loop Capital分析师Ananda Baruah在周四的一份研究报告中断言，希捷科技控股公司（股票代码：STX）和西部数据（WDC）——这两家公司共同控制着全球大部分磁盘驱动器生产——的定价和利润可能会持续上涨来自Chia推动的高容量驱动器需求加速。</blockquote></p><p> If that demand is sustained, he asserts, Seagate’s annualized earnings could reach $12 a share, well above the Street’s consensus forecasts of profits of $5.52 a share for the June 2021 fiscal year, $7.48 for fiscal 2022, and $7.71 for fiscal 2023. For Western Digital, he writes, profits could reach the $10-$12-per-share range, which compares to Street estimates of $3.83 for the June 2021 fiscal year, $8.87 for fiscal 2022, and $10.54 for fiscal 2023.</p><p><blockquote>他断言，如果这种需求持续下去，希捷的年化收益可能达到每股12美元，远高于华尔街普遍预测的2021年6月财年每股利润5.52美元、2022财年每股利润7.48美元和2023财年每股利润7.71美元。他写道，对于西部数据来说，每股利润可能达到10-12美元，而华尔街预计2021年6月财年为3.83美元，2022财年为8.87美元，2023财年为10.54美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the impact on drive pricing from Chia farming has largely been at the retail level and through distributors, Baruah sees the trend overflowing to contract pricing if the Chia trend is sustained, with higher prices possible for drives sold to both cloud-computing companies and major data-storage systems companies like Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE),Dell Technologies‘ (DELL) EMC unit, and&nbsp;NetApp(NTAP).</p><p><blockquote>虽然Chia farming对驱动器定价的影响主要是在零售层面和通过分销商，但Baruah认为，如果Chia趋势持续下去，这种趋势将蔓延到合同定价，销售给云计算公司和主要数据的驱动器价格可能会更高-慧与(HPE)、戴尔科技(DELL)EMC部门和NetApp(NTAP)等存储系统公司。</blockquote></p><p> He contends that both Seagate and Western Digital have begun holding conversations on shifting average selling prices higher. And he adds that “if all of this holds, gross margin expansion could have a long way to go.”</p><p><blockquote>他认为，希捷和西部数据已经开始就提高平均售价进行对话。他补充道，“如果所有这些都成立，毛利率扩张可能还有很长的路要走。”</blockquote></p><p> With distributor inventories depleted, Baruah adds, the hard-drive suppliers are “in prime position” heading into the calendar second half to see elevated pricing. He notes that the last time there was an event-driven price reset in the drive market was 10 years ago, when severe flooding in Thailand knocked out a substantial portion of drive manufacturing capacity. This time, he says, there is less excess capacity in the system, with limited suppliers of both recording heads and magnetic media constraining the ability to satisfy demand.</p><p><blockquote>Baruah补充说，随着分销商库存的耗尽，硬盘供应商在进入下半年时“处于有利地位”，可以看到价格上涨。他指出，驱动器市场上上一次出现事件驱动的价格重置是在10年前，当时泰国的严重洪水摧毁了很大一部分驱动器制造能力。他说，这一次，系统中的过剩容量减少了，记录头和磁介质的供应商有限，限制了满足需求的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Baruah maintains his Buy ratings on both Seagate and Western Digital. He has price targets of $100 on Seagate and $90 on Western. Both stocks are lower in recent trading, with Seagate off 4.2%, at $88.82, and Western Digital down 3.4%, at $70.77. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;index is down 0.04%.</p><p><blockquote>Baruah维持对希捷和西部数据的买入评级。他对希捷的目标价为100美元，对西部航空的目标价为90美元。两只股票在近期交易中均走低，希捷下跌4.2%，至88.82美元，西部数据下跌3.4%，至70.77美元。标准普尔500指数下跌0.04%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/crypto-mining-could-give-huge-boost-to-seagate-and-western-digital-stock-51623944488?mod=hp_DAY_7\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STX":"希捷科技","WDC":"西部数据"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/crypto-mining-could-give-huge-boost-to-seagate-and-western-digital-stock-51623944488?mod=hp_DAY_7","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112448941","content_text":"Disk-drive demand continues to be warped by the rapid adoption of Chia, a cryptocurrency that relies on large capacity drives to “farm” new coins.\n, Chia uses a different model than other cryptocurrencies to create new coins. Most cryptocurrencies rely on a “proof of work” model to verify transactions: Miners solve complex mathematical problems that require lots of computational power to earn coins, which explains why traditional mining is so energy-intensive.\nChia’s approach, by contrast, is tied to storage capacity committed to being used on the blockchain, rather than computational might. And that is warping demand for high-capacity drives.\nIn a research note on Thursday, Loop Capital analyst Ananda Baruah asserts that both SeagateTechnology Holdings (ticker: STX) and Western Digital(WDC)—which together control most of the world’s disk-drive production—could see a sustained boost to both pricing and profits from the Chia-driven acceleration in demand for high-capacity drives.\nIf that demand is sustained, he asserts, Seagate’s annualized earnings could reach $12 a share, well above the Street’s consensus forecasts of profits of $5.52 a share for the June 2021 fiscal year, $7.48 for fiscal 2022, and $7.71 for fiscal 2023. For Western Digital, he writes, profits could reach the $10-$12-per-share range, which compares to Street estimates of $3.83 for the June 2021 fiscal year, $8.87 for fiscal 2022, and $10.54 for fiscal 2023.\nWhile the impact on drive pricing from Chia farming has largely been at the retail level and through distributors, Baruah sees the trend overflowing to contract pricing if the Chia trend is sustained, with higher prices possible for drives sold to both cloud-computing companies and major data-storage systems companies like Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE),Dell Technologies‘ (DELL) EMC unit, and NetApp(NTAP).\nHe contends that both Seagate and Western Digital have begun holding conversations on shifting average selling prices higher. And he adds that “if all of this holds, gross margin expansion could have a long way to go.”\nWith distributor inventories depleted, Baruah adds, the hard-drive suppliers are “in prime position” heading into the calendar second half to see elevated pricing. He notes that the last time there was an event-driven price reset in the drive market was 10 years ago, when severe flooding in Thailand knocked out a substantial portion of drive manufacturing capacity. This time, he says, there is less excess capacity in the system, with limited suppliers of both recording heads and magnetic media constraining the ability to satisfy demand.\nBaruah maintains his Buy ratings on both Seagate and Western Digital. He has price targets of $100 on Seagate and $90 on Western. Both stocks are lower in recent trading, with Seagate off 4.2%, at $88.82, and Western Digital down 3.4%, at $70.77. The S&P 500 index is down 0.04%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WDC":0.9,"STX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169678405,"gmtCreate":1623835382207,"gmtModify":1634027364572,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hehe nice","listText":"Hehe nice","text":"Hehe nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169678405","repostId":"2143335187","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137985854,"gmtCreate":1622285278878,"gmtModify":1634102518013,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello darkness my old friend","listText":"Hello darkness my old friend","text":"Hello darkness my old friend","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137985854","repostId":"2138488929","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150263841,"gmtCreate":1624911525783,"gmtModify":1631888672320,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Aye i too wanna retire","listText":"Aye i too wanna retire","text":"Aye i too wanna retire","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150263841","repostId":"1103992527","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123777032,"gmtCreate":1624441990926,"gmtModify":1631888672362,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Booboo","listText":"Booboo","text":"Booboo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123777032","repostId":"1119094763","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129297907,"gmtCreate":1624373183009,"gmtModify":1631888672375,"author":{"id":"3574831360555066","authorId":"3574831360555066","name":"LeminovoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3b3a74e2ef7eebb7a8bae9d1a6a04f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574831360555066","idStr":"3574831360555066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeet","listText":"Yeet","text":"Yeet","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129297907","repostId":"2145056554","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}