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2021-06-28

Back on a different than

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2021-06-28

Job on a daily email address

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2021-06-28

How many days in this message

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2021-06-28

But not for this position to

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2021-06-28

C for you and the

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2021-06-28

Fc for a while to do the

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2021-06-27

John is an automated

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2021-06-27

On your site that

Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>

2021-06-27

As well with a little more

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2021-06-27

Has the right person and a great

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2021-06-27

I am looking into the system for your reply

S&P 500 rises to another record, heads for its best week since April<blockquote>标普500再创新高，迎来四月以来最好的一周</blockquote>

2021-06-27

His own business we will be out the

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2021-06-27

O is the first place in case

Express rose more than 18% in morning trading<blockquote>快递早盘上涨超过18%</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Need to make a big deal

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2021-06-27

W the first of a sudden death knight

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2021-06-27

True

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2021-06-27

Agree with buffet

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2021-06-27

Just to make this is an

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2021-06-27

Back and the rest in this

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2021-06-27

I disagrees to you soon so that they

Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>

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to","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127662882","repostId":"2146500068","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127666454,"gmtCreate":1624846608878,"gmtModify":1631890496399,"author":{"id":"3574848576018567","authorId":"3574848576018567","name":"honkfish","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574848576018567","idStr":"3574848576018567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"C for you and the","listText":"C for you and the","text":"C for you and the","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127666454","repostId":"2146071490","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127666352,"gmtCreate":1624846583976,"gmtModify":1631890496400,"author":{"id":"3574848576018567","authorId":"3574848576018567","name":"honkfish","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574848576018567","idStr":"3574848576018567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Fc for a while to do the","listText":"Fc for a while to do the","text":"Fc for a while to do the","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127666352","repostId":"2146007118","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124708990,"gmtCreate":1624787929510,"gmtModify":1631890496403,"author":{"id":"3574848576018567","authorId":"3574848576018567","name":"honkfish","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574848576018567","idStr":"3574848576018567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"John is an automated","listText":"John is an automated","text":"John is an automated","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124708990","repostId":"1140044383","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2723,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124701651,"gmtCreate":1624787898673,"gmtModify":1631890496407,"author":{"id":"3574848576018567","authorId":"3574848576018567","name":"honkfish","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574848576018567","idStr":"3574848576018567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"On your site that","listText":"On your site that","text":"On your site that","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124701651","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在增进对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机遇的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特公司（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临另一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后给出最终结论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特与蔚来：全球电动汽车市场之争正在升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司都将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场展开较量。福特的车队还没有以电动汽车为重点，但这种情况将会改变： 福特感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，因此表示将加快其电气化计划，在 2025 年前投资 300 亿美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求投资 220 亿美元用于零排放汽车。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年，其全球销量的 40% 将是电动汽车，皮卡车销量的 33% 将是电动汽车。目前，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的 1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在 2040 年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020 年，中国购买了全球 41% 的电动汽车。去年，中国买家购买了 130 万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求促进电动汽车的普及，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是全球第三大插电式电动汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速迎头赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对欧洲范围内充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来正处于进军欧洲市场的风口浪尖，希望在竞争准备就绪之前扩大其在世界第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>中国政府是蔚来汽车工业电气化的推动者： 中国政府希望到 2025 年，电动汽车在新车销售中所占份额达到 20%，这将推动电动汽车在中国本土市场的普及。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场将迎来世界上最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，电动汽车销量将超过全球所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长和更有利的监管框架，这里的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有百年的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品阵容中只有一款与蔚来相比的全电动汽车：野马 Mach-E SUV。2022 年，福特将开始销售全电动 F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑车SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来只专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了一个非常小且明确的利基市场，这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商希望实现的速度更快地提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国是特斯拉（TSLA）的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也是蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议斥资 300 亿美元用于车队电气化，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>这里的赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化与BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在这个市场中的重要性，随着时间的推移，这个市场只会变得更加竞争，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个相关领域大力投资，这个领域可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场的主导地位：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司 SK Innovation 成立一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池芯和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加快电池交付速度，年产量约为 60 GWh，足以满足福特到 2030 年预计年能源需求的 25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并组建了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特不同的是，蔚来的电池投资战略围绕着电池订阅模式，也称为 “电池即服务 ”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了一个强大的长期收入机会。在这种 “BaaS” 模式下，用户购买蔚来电动汽车可获得 7 万元人民币的初始折扣，折合 1.08 万美元，并可签约包月租赁 70 千瓦时的可充电电池。然后可以在蔚来的换电站更换电池，这些换电站在中国大多数大城市都有。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于前期折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和随着时间的推移更好的性能。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩，为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入流。“BaaS ”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/换电站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户绑定到蔚来，从而潜在地增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特和蔚来增加资本配置，它们有望从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这应该会推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车比内燃机乘用车更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建部分商业模式，蔚来可能会比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德提供的信息，自 2014 年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降 70%，并且本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS ”模式是天才之作，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年 5 亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特 5 月份的销量同比增长 4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比激增 184%，福特 5 月份售出了创纪录的 10,364 辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified 和 Explorer Hybrid 的销量分别同比增长 125% 和 132%，显示出强劲的客户吸引力。蔚来上个月交付了 6,711 辆汽车，其中包括 3,017 辆 ES6、1,412 辆 ES8 和 2,282 辆 EC6。5 月份总交付量同比增长 95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销量是蔚来汽车的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来之间的估值差异就像黑夜和白天之间的差异。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别实现了爆炸式增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量增长将达到中低位数。福特预计到 2025 财年（基准年：2020 财年）收入将增长 33%，蔚来将增长 808%!</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于销售增长的这些差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言是这样。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近 100%，由于蔚来只销售电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销量之比远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来有更大的风险……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。与福特相比，蔚来的全球总销售额增长潜力更大，因为它的营收基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，与可以依赖全球服务和分销网络的福特相比，由于生产缺陷导致的召回对于蔚来来说将是一个更大的挑战。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓，将对财务状况造成更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更 “性感 ”的汽车制造商。在中国和欧洲的强劲采用率和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，堪称天才。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着该汽车制造商车队电气化，电动汽车销量的比例也将不断增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果你相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，又不喜欢太大的风险，那就买福特吧。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在增进对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机遇的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特公司（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临另一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后给出最终结论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特与蔚来：全球电动汽车市场之争正在升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司都将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场展开较量。福特的车队还没有以电动汽车为重点，但这种情况将会改变： 福特感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，因此表示将加快其电气化计划，在 2025 年前投资 300 亿美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求投资 220 亿美元用于零排放汽车。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年，其全球销量的 40% 将是电动汽车，皮卡车销量的 33% 将是电动汽车。目前，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的 1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在 2040 年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020 年，中国购买了全球 41% 的电动汽车。去年，中国买家购买了 130 万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求促进电动汽车的普及，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是全球第三大插电式电动汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速迎头赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对欧洲范围内充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来正处于进军欧洲市场的风口浪尖，希望在竞争准备就绪之前扩大其在世界第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>中国政府是蔚来汽车工业电气化的推动者： 中国政府希望到 2025 年，电动汽车在新车销售中所占份额达到 20%，这将推动电动汽车在中国本土市场的普及。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场将迎来世界上最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，电动汽车销量将超过全球所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长和更有利的监管框架，这里的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有百年的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品阵容中只有一款与蔚来相比的全电动汽车：野马 Mach-E SUV。2022 年，福特将开始销售全电动 F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑车SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来只专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了一个非常小且明确的利基市场，这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商希望实现的速度更快地提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国是特斯拉（TSLA）的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也是蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议斥资 300 亿美元用于车队电气化，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>这里的赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化与BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在这个市场中的重要性，随着时间的推移，这个市场只会变得更加竞争，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个相关领域大力投资，这个领域可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场的主导地位：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司 SK Innovation 成立一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池芯和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加快电池交付速度，年产量约为 60 GWh，足以满足福特到 2030 年预计年能源需求的 25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并组建了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特不同的是，蔚来的电池投资战略围绕着电池订阅模式，也称为 “电池即服务 ”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了一个强大的长期收入机会。在这种 “BaaS” 模式下，用户购买蔚来电动汽车可获得 7 万元人民币的初始折扣，折合 1.08 万美元，并可签约包月租赁 70 千瓦时的可充电电池。然后可以在蔚来的换电站更换电池，这些换电站在中国大多数大城市都有。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于前期折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和随着时间的推移更好的性能。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩，为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入流。“BaaS ”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/换电站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户绑定到蔚来，从而潜在地增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特和蔚来增加资本配置，它们有望从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这应该会推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车比内燃机乘用车更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建部分商业模式，蔚来可能会比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德提供的信息，自 2014 年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降 70%，并且本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS ”模式是天才之作，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年 5 亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特 5 月份的销量同比增长 4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比激增 184%，福特 5 月份售出了创纪录的 10,364 辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified 和 Explorer Hybrid 的销量分别同比增长 125% 和 132%，显示出强劲的客户吸引力。蔚来上个月交付了 6,711 辆汽车，其中包括 3,017 辆 ES6、1,412 辆 ES8 和 2,282 辆 EC6。5 月份总交付量同比增长 95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销量是蔚来汽车的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来之间的估值差异就像黑夜和白天之间的差异。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别实现了爆炸式增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量增长将达到中低位数。福特预计到 2025 财年（基准年：2020 财年）收入将增长 33%，蔚来将增长 808%!</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于销售增长的这些差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言是这样。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近 100%，由于蔚来只销售电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销量之比远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来有更大的风险……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。与福特相比，蔚来的全球总销售额增长潜力更大，因为它的营收基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，与可以依赖全球服务和分销网络的福特相比，由于生产缺陷导致的召回对于蔚来来说将是一个更大的挑战。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓，将对财务状况造成更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更 “性感 ”的汽车制造商。在中国和欧洲的强劲采用率和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，堪称天才。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着该汽车制造商车队电气化，电动汽车销量的比例也将不断增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果你相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，又不喜欢太大的风险，那就买福特吧。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124701837,"gmtCreate":1624787884529,"gmtModify":1631890496410,"author":{"id":"3574848576018567","authorId":"3574848576018567","name":"honkfish","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574848576018567","idStr":"3574848576018567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"As well with a little more","listText":"As well with a little more","text":"As well with a little more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124701837","repostId":"2146090006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124486703,"gmtCreate":1624780738802,"gmtModify":1631890496414,"author":{"id":"3574848576018567","authorId":"3574848576018567","name":"honkfish","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574848576018567","idStr":"3574848576018567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Has the right person and a great","listText":"Has the right person and a great","text":"Has the right person and a great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124486703","repostId":"2146407666","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124486259,"gmtCreate":1624780727871,"gmtModify":1633948663597,"author":{"id":"3574848576018567","authorId":"3574848576018567","name":"honkfish","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574848576018567","idStr":"3574848576018567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I am looking into the system for your reply","listText":"I am looking into the system for your reply","text":"I am looking into the system for your reply","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124486259","repostId":"1150738323","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150738323","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624627873,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1150738323?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 21:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 rises to another record, heads for its best week since April<blockquote>标普500再创新高，迎来四月以来最好的一周</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150738323","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":" U.S. stocks rose on Friday with the S&P 500 building on its rally to records, as investors bet that higher inflation will be temporary as the economy continues to recover.The broad equity benchmark climbed 0.2% to hit another all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 160 points, or 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2%.Wall Street extended gains after a key inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve uses to set policy rose 3.4% in May, the fastest increase since the early 19","content":"<p>(June 25)&nbsp;U.S. stocks rose on Friday with the S&amp;P 500 building on its rally to records, as investors bet that higher inflation will be temporary as the economy continues to recover.</p><p><blockquote>（6月25日）美国周五股市上涨，标普500继续上涨至创纪录水平，投资者押注随着经济持续复苏，通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> The broad equity benchmark climbed 0.2% to hit another all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 160 points, or 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2%.</p><p><blockquote>广泛的股票基准上涨0.2%，创下历史新高。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 160 点，涨幅 0.5%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨 0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street extended gains after a key inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve uses to set policy rose 3.4% in May, the fastest increase since the early 1990s, the Commerce Department reported Friday. The reading matched the expectation from economists polled by Dow Jones.</p><p><blockquote>美国商务部周五报告称，美联储用来制定政策的关键通胀指标 5 月份上涨 3.4%，为 20 世纪 90 年代初以来的最快涨幅，华尔街扩大了涨幅。这一数据符合道琼斯调查的经济学家的预期。</blockquote></p><p> The core personal consumption expenditures price index increase reflects the rapid pace of economic expansion and resulting price pressures, and amplified how far the nation has come since the pandemic-induced shutdown of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>核心个人消费支出价格指数的增长反映了经济扩张的快速步伐和由此产生的价格压力，并放大了自2020年疫情引发的关闭以来美国已经走了多远。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500, which closed at a record Thursday, is up 2.6% for the week so far, which would be its best gain since early April. The Dow is up 3.2% this week and the Nasdaq is up 2.6% since last Friday.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周四收盘创下历史新高，本周迄今已上涨 2.6%，这将是自 4 月初以来的最佳涨幅。道琼斯指数本周上涨3.2%，纳斯达克指数自上周五以来上涨2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Nike's stock surged 12% in premarket trading, helping to boost sentiment for the Dow. The company reportedearnings and revenuethat blew past Wall Street estimates. Digital sales also jumped 41% since last year and 147% from two years ago.</p><p><blockquote>耐克股价在盘前交易中飙升 12%，有助于提振道琼斯指数的情绪。该公司公布的盈利和收入超出了华尔街的预期。数字销售额自去年以来也增长了 41%，比两年前增长了 147%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Caterpillar jumped 2.6% on optimism around an infrastructure deal on Thursday. The shares were higher by another 1% in premarket trading Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周四，由于对基础设施交易的乐观情绪，卡特彼勒股价上涨 2.6%。该股在周五盘前交易中又上涨了 1%。</blockquote></p><p> On the flipside Friday,FedExdipped 4% in premarket trading despite beating on the top and bottom lines of its earnings. FedEx also gave a strong yearly outlook.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面， 周五联邦快递在盘前交易中下跌 4%， 尽管其盈利上线和下线均超过预期。联邦快递也给出了强劲的年度展望。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the major U.S. banks popped after the&nbsp;Federal Reserve&nbsp;announcedthe industry could easily withstand a severe recession. The Fed, in releasing the results of its annual stress test, said the 23 institutions in the 2021 exam remained \"well above\" minimum required capital levels during a hypothetical economic downturn. The decision cleared the way for the banks to raise dividends and buy back more stock, which was suspended during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储宣布该行业可以轻松抵御严重衰退后，美国主要银行的股价大幅上涨。美联储在发布年度压力测试结果时表示，2021 年测试中的 23 家机构在假设的经济衰退期间仍“远高于”最低所需资本水平。这一决定为银行提高股息和回购更多股票扫清了道路，这些股票在疫情期间被暂停。</blockquote></p><p> Bank of AmericaandWells Fargorose 1.4% and 2%, respectively, in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行和富国银行盘前分别上涨 1.4% 和 2%。</blockquote></p><p> President Joe Biden&nbsp;announced Thursday that the White House struck an infrastructure deal&nbsp;with a bipartisan group of senators. The lawmakers have worked for weeks to craft a roughly $1 trillion package that could get through Congress with support from both parties. The framework will include $579 billion in new spending on transportation like roads, bridges and rail, electric vehicle infrastructure and electric transit, among other things.</p><p><blockquote>乔·拜登总统周四宣布，白宫与一个两党参议员小组达成了一项基础设施协议。立法者们已经工作了几个星期，制定了一个大约1万亿美元的一揽子计划，可以在两党的支持下通过国会。该框架将包括5790亿美元的新交通支出，如道路、桥梁和铁路、电动汽车基础设施和电动交通等。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market came back from last week’s swoon induced by worries about a tighter Federal Reserve. Last week, the Dow fell 3.5% and the S&amp;P 500 shed 1.9% as the Fed moved up its timeline for interest-rate increases.</p><p><blockquote>股市从上周因担心美联储收紧货币政策而导致的低迷中恢复过来。上周，随着美联储提前加息时间表，道琼斯指数下跌 3.5%，标普500指数下跌 1.9%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 rises to another record, heads for its best week since April<blockquote>标普500再创新高，迎来四月以来最好的一周</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 rises to another record, heads for its best week since April<blockquote>标普500再创新高，迎来四月以来最好的一周</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-25 21:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 25)&nbsp;U.S. stocks rose on Friday with the S&amp;P 500 building on its rally to records, as investors bet that higher inflation will be temporary as the economy continues to recover.</p><p><blockquote>（6月25日）美国周五股市上涨，标普500继续上涨至创纪录水平，投资者押注随着经济持续复苏，通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> The broad equity benchmark climbed 0.2% to hit another all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 160 points, or 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2%.</p><p><blockquote>广泛的股票基准上涨0.2%，创下历史新高。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 160 点，涨幅 0.5%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨 0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street extended gains after a key inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve uses to set policy rose 3.4% in May, the fastest increase since the early 1990s, the Commerce Department reported Friday. The reading matched the expectation from economists polled by Dow Jones.</p><p><blockquote>美国商务部周五报告称，美联储用来制定政策的关键通胀指标 5 月份上涨 3.4%，为 20 世纪 90 年代初以来的最快涨幅，华尔街扩大了涨幅。这一数据符合道琼斯调查的经济学家的预期。</blockquote></p><p> The core personal consumption expenditures price index increase reflects the rapid pace of economic expansion and resulting price pressures, and amplified how far the nation has come since the pandemic-induced shutdown of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>核心个人消费支出价格指数的增长反映了经济扩张的快速步伐和由此产生的价格压力，并放大了自2020年疫情引发的关闭以来美国已经走了多远。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500, which closed at a record Thursday, is up 2.6% for the week so far, which would be its best gain since early April. The Dow is up 3.2% this week and the Nasdaq is up 2.6% since last Friday.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周四收盘创下历史新高，本周迄今已上涨 2.6%，这将是自 4 月初以来的最佳涨幅。道琼斯指数本周上涨3.2%，纳斯达克指数自上周五以来上涨2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Nike's stock surged 12% in premarket trading, helping to boost sentiment for the Dow. The company reportedearnings and revenuethat blew past Wall Street estimates. Digital sales also jumped 41% since last year and 147% from two years ago.</p><p><blockquote>耐克股价在盘前交易中飙升 12%，有助于提振道琼斯指数的情绪。该公司公布的盈利和收入超出了华尔街的预期。数字销售额自去年以来也增长了 41%，比两年前增长了 147%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Caterpillar jumped 2.6% on optimism around an infrastructure deal on Thursday. The shares were higher by another 1% in premarket trading Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周四，由于对基础设施交易的乐观情绪，卡特彼勒股价上涨 2.6%。该股在周五盘前交易中又上涨了 1%。</blockquote></p><p> On the flipside Friday,FedExdipped 4% in premarket trading despite beating on the top and bottom lines of its earnings. FedEx also gave a strong yearly outlook.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面， 周五联邦快递在盘前交易中下跌 4%， 尽管其盈利上线和下线均超过预期。联邦快递也给出了强劲的年度展望。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the major U.S. banks popped after the&nbsp;Federal Reserve&nbsp;announcedthe industry could easily withstand a severe recession. The Fed, in releasing the results of its annual stress test, said the 23 institutions in the 2021 exam remained \"well above\" minimum required capital levels during a hypothetical economic downturn. The decision cleared the way for the banks to raise dividends and buy back more stock, which was suspended during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储宣布该行业可以轻松抵御严重衰退后，美国主要银行的股价大幅上涨。美联储在发布年度压力测试结果时表示，2021 年测试中的 23 家机构在假设的经济衰退期间仍“远高于”最低所需资本水平。这一决定为银行提高股息和回购更多股票扫清了道路，这些股票在疫情期间被暂停。</blockquote></p><p> Bank of AmericaandWells Fargorose 1.4% and 2%, respectively, in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行和富国银行盘前分别上涨 1.4% 和 2%。</blockquote></p><p> President Joe Biden&nbsp;announced Thursday that the White House struck an infrastructure deal&nbsp;with a bipartisan group of senators. The lawmakers have worked for weeks to craft a roughly $1 trillion package that could get through Congress with support from both parties. The framework will include $579 billion in new spending on transportation like roads, bridges and rail, electric vehicle infrastructure and electric transit, among other things.</p><p><blockquote>乔·拜登总统周四宣布，白宫与一个两党参议员小组达成了一项基础设施协议。立法者们已经工作了几个星期，制定了一个大约1万亿美元的一揽子计划，可以在两党的支持下通过国会。该框架将包括5790亿美元的新交通支出，如道路、桥梁和铁路、电动汽车基础设施和电动交通等。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market came back from last week’s swoon induced by worries about a tighter Federal Reserve. Last week, the Dow fell 3.5% and the S&amp;P 500 shed 1.9% as the Fed moved up its timeline for interest-rate increases.</p><p><blockquote>股市从上周因担心美联储收紧货币政策而导致的低迷中恢复过来。上周，随着美联储提前加息时间表，道琼斯指数下跌 3.5%，标普500指数下跌 1.9%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150738323","content_text":"(June 25) U.S. stocks rose on Friday with the S&P 500 building on its rally to records, as investors bet that higher inflation will be temporary as the economy continues to recover.\nThe broad equity benchmark climbed 0.2% to hit another all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 160 points, or 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2%.\nWall Street extended gains after a key inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve uses to set policy rose 3.4% in May, the fastest increase since the early 1990s, the Commerce Department reported Friday. The reading matched the expectation from economists polled by Dow Jones.\nThe core personal consumption expenditures price index increase reflects the rapid pace of economic expansion and resulting price pressures, and amplified how far the nation has come since the pandemic-induced shutdown of 2020.\nThe S&P 500, which closed at a record Thursday, is up 2.6% for the week so far, which would be its best gain since early April. The Dow is up 3.2% this week and the Nasdaq is up 2.6% since last Friday.\nNike's stock surged 12% in premarket trading, helping to boost sentiment for the Dow. The company reportedearnings and revenuethat blew past Wall Street estimates. Digital sales also jumped 41% since last year and 147% from two years ago.\nShares of Caterpillar jumped 2.6% on optimism around an infrastructure deal on Thursday. The shares were higher by another 1% in premarket trading Friday.\nOn the flipside Friday,FedExdipped 4% in premarket trading despite beating on the top and bottom lines of its earnings. FedEx also gave a strong yearly outlook.\nShares of the major U.S. banks popped after the Federal Reserve announcedthe industry could easily withstand a severe recession. The Fed, in releasing the results of its annual stress test, said the 23 institutions in the 2021 exam remained \"well above\" minimum required capital levels during a hypothetical economic downturn. The decision cleared the way for the banks to raise dividends and buy back more stock, which was suspended during the pandemic.\nBank of AmericaandWells Fargorose 1.4% and 2%, respectively, in the premarket.\nPresident Joe Biden announced Thursday that the White House struck an infrastructure deal with a bipartisan group of senators. The lawmakers have worked for weeks to craft a roughly $1 trillion package that could get through Congress with support from both parties. The framework will include $579 billion in new spending on transportation like roads, bridges and rail, electric vehicle infrastructure and electric transit, among other things.\nThe stock market came back from last week’s swoon induced by worries about a tighter Federal Reserve. Last week, the Dow fell 3.5% and the S&P 500 shed 1.9% as the Fed moved up its timeline for interest-rate increases.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124486359,"gmtCreate":1624780715671,"gmtModify":1633948663922,"author":{"id":"3574848576018567","authorId":"3574848576018567","name":"honkfish","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574848576018567","idStr":"3574848576018567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"His own business we will be out the","listText":"His own business we will be out the","text":"His own business we will be out the","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124486359","repostId":"1198438276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124486927,"gmtCreate":1624780704869,"gmtModify":1633948664046,"author":{"id":"3574848576018567","authorId":"3574848576018567","name":"honkfish","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574848576018567","idStr":"3574848576018567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"O is the first place in case","listText":"O is the first place in case","text":"O is the first place in case","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124486927","repostId":"1197793973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197793973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624632519,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1197793973?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 22:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Express rose more than 18% in morning trading<blockquote>快递早盘上涨超过18%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197793973","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 25) Express rose more than 18% in morning trading.\n\nPenny Stocks: Express, Inc. (EXPR)\nAs Amer","content":"<p>(June 25)&nbsp;Express rose more than 18% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月25日）快递早盘涨超18%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7d0a790fa6be577c503976999a1bcc4\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5acd907c2ddcda36de9b16d0c0553ae6\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Penny Stocks: Express, Inc. (EXPR)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>细价股：Express, Inc. (EXPR)</b></blockquote></p><p> As Americans start going out more and many start returning to offices, they will spend more money on clothes. Additionally, those who enjoy shopping in stores will resume that hobby. As a result, Express, which sells on-trend apparel for men and women, should benefit from people updating their wardrobes.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国人开始更多地外出，许多人开始重返办公室，他们将在衣服上花更多的钱。此外，那些喜欢在商店购物的人会恢复这种爱好。因此，销售男女流行服装的 Express 应该会从人们更新衣橱中受益。</blockquote></p><p> In conjunction with its Q1 results, Express CEO Tim Baxter saidthe company’s sales volumesexceeded 2019 levels in March and April. Additionally, the company’s e-commerce transactions soared 40% year-over-year (YOY) and net sales climbed 64% YOY.</p><p><blockquote>Express 首席执行官蒂姆-巴克斯特（Tim Baxter）在公布第一季度业绩时表示，公司 3 月和 4 月的销售量超过了 2019 年的水平。此外，该公司的电子商务交易额同比飙升 40%，净销售额同比攀升 64%。</blockquote></p><p> Impressively, Express hopes to raise its annual e-commerce revenue to $1 billion by 2024. This could be easier than it seems, as the company cut back on its promotional discounts in Q1 and plans to continue that tactic going forward.</p><p><blockquote>令人印象深刻的是，Express 希望到 2024 年将其电子商务年收入提高到 10 亿美元。这可能比看起来更容易，因为该公司在第一季度削减了促销折扣，并计划继续采取这一策略。</blockquote></p><p> Expresshas made some appearanceson<b>Reddit’s</b><i>r/WallStreetBets</i>forum and could get a boost from retail investors who focus on social media.</p><p><blockquote>Expresshas 出现在<b>Reddit的</b><i>r/华尔街投注</i>论坛，并可能从专注于社交媒体的散户投资者那里获得推动。</blockquote></p><p> The shares have a tiny price-sales ratio of 0.22.</p><p><blockquote>该股的市销率仅为 0.22。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Express rose more than 18% in morning trading<blockquote>快递早盘上涨超过18%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpress rose more than 18% in morning trading<blockquote>快递早盘上涨超过18%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-25 22:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 25)&nbsp;Express rose more than 18% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月25日）快递早盘涨超18%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7d0a790fa6be577c503976999a1bcc4\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5acd907c2ddcda36de9b16d0c0553ae6\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Penny Stocks: Express, Inc. (EXPR)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>细价股：Express, Inc. (EXPR)</b></blockquote></p><p> As Americans start going out more and many start returning to offices, they will spend more money on clothes. Additionally, those who enjoy shopping in stores will resume that hobby. As a result, Express, which sells on-trend apparel for men and women, should benefit from people updating their wardrobes.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国人开始更多地外出，许多人开始重返办公室，他们将在衣服上花更多的钱。此外，那些喜欢在商店购物的人会恢复这种爱好。因此，销售男女流行服装的 Express 应该会从人们更新衣橱中受益。</blockquote></p><p> In conjunction with its Q1 results, Express CEO Tim Baxter saidthe company’s sales volumesexceeded 2019 levels in March and April. Additionally, the company’s e-commerce transactions soared 40% year-over-year (YOY) and net sales climbed 64% YOY.</p><p><blockquote>Express 首席执行官蒂姆-巴克斯特（Tim Baxter）在公布第一季度业绩时表示，公司 3 月和 4 月的销售量超过了 2019 年的水平。此外，该公司的电子商务交易额同比飙升 40%，净销售额同比攀升 64%。</blockquote></p><p> Impressively, Express hopes to raise its annual e-commerce revenue to $1 billion by 2024. This could be easier than it seems, as the company cut back on its promotional discounts in Q1 and plans to continue that tactic going forward.</p><p><blockquote>令人印象深刻的是，Express 希望到 2024 年将其电子商务年收入提高到 10 亿美元。这可能比看起来更容易，因为该公司在第一季度削减了促销折扣，并计划继续采取这一策略。</blockquote></p><p> Expresshas made some appearanceson<b>Reddit’s</b><i>r/WallStreetBets</i>forum and could get a boost from retail investors who focus on social media.</p><p><blockquote>Expresshas 出现在<b>Reddit的</b><i>r/华尔街投注</i>论坛，并可能从专注于社交媒体的散户投资者那里获得推动。</blockquote></p><p> The shares have a tiny price-sales ratio of 0.22.</p><p><blockquote>该股的市销率仅为 0.22。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EXPR":"Express, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197793973","content_text":"(June 25) Express rose more than 18% in morning trading.\n\nPenny Stocks: Express, Inc. (EXPR)\nAs Americans start going out more and many start returning to offices, they will spend more money on clothes. Additionally, those who enjoy shopping in stores will resume that hobby. As a result, Express, which sells on-trend apparel for men and women, should benefit from people updating their wardrobes.\nIn conjunction with its Q1 results, Express CEO Tim Baxter saidthe company’s sales volumesexceeded 2019 levels in March and April. Additionally, the company’s e-commerce transactions soared 40% year-over-year (YOY) and net sales climbed 64% YOY.\nImpressively, Express hopes to raise its annual e-commerce revenue to $1 billion by 2024. This could be easier than it seems, as the company cut back on its promotional discounts in Q1 and plans to continue that tactic going forward.\nExpresshas made some appearancesonReddit’sr/WallStreetBetsforum and could get a boost from retail investors who focus on social media.\nThe shares have a tiny price-sales ratio of 0.22.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EXPR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124676867,"gmtCreate":1624764743959,"gmtModify":1633948897328,"author":{"id":"3574848576018567","authorId":"3574848576018567","name":"honkfish","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574848576018567","idStr":"3574848576018567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Need to make a big deal","listText":"Need to make a big deal","text":"Need to make a big 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knight","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124678700","repostId":"1110293570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124678836,"gmtCreate":1624764695525,"gmtModify":1633948898360,"author":{"id":"3574848576018567","authorId":"3574848576018567","name":"honkfish","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574848576018567","idStr":"3574848576018567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"True","listText":"True","text":"True","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124678836","repostId":"2146090006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124678313,"gmtCreate":1624764681432,"gmtModify":1631888361459,"author":{"id":"3574848576018567","authorId":"3574848576018567","name":"honkfish","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574848576018567","idStr":"3574848576018567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Agree with buffet","listText":"Agree with buffet","text":"Agree with buffet","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124678313","repostId":"2146090006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1054,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124845185,"gmtCreate":1624759991047,"gmtModify":1631884219213,"author":{"id":"3574848576018567","authorId":"3574848576018567","name":"honkfish","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574848576018567","idStr":"3574848576018567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Just to make this is an","listText":"Just to make this is an","text":"Just to make this is an","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124845185","repostId":"1172737444","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124846656,"gmtCreate":1624759938775,"gmtModify":1633949000061,"author":{"id":"3574848576018567","authorId":"3574848576018567","name":"honkfish","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574848576018567","idStr":"3574848576018567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Back and the rest in this","listText":"Back and the rest in this","text":"Back and the rest in this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124846656","repostId":"2146070550","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124848706,"gmtCreate":1624759918005,"gmtModify":1633949000652,"author":{"id":"3574848576018567","authorId":"3574848576018567","name":"honkfish","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574848576018567","idStr":"3574848576018567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I disagrees to you soon so that they","listText":"I disagrees to you soon so that they","text":"I disagrees to you soon so that they","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124848706","repostId":"1117734317","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117734317","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624759414,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117734317?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117734317","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong re","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li>  <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li>  <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li>  <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li>  <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从表面上看，Square 似乎是一家成长型公司，也是一项良好的投资，具有强劲的收入增长和庞大的现金应用程序用户群。</li><li>事实上，该公司一直在努力将营收转化为利润。</li><li>这导致 Square 扩大其产品，以证明夸大的收入估值是合理的，而这可能永远不会带来有意义的盈利增长。</li><li>虽然乍一看，它的现金应用故事似乎是一个萌芽的前景，但它可能只不过是基于必要性的暂时增长。</li><li>鉴于目前的估值和日益增长的比特币阻力，Square 可能面临收入和盈利的大幅下调。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the&nbsp;most popular stocks&nbsp;among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p><p><blockquote>Square Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）是最受散户交易者和投资者欢迎的股票之一，在 Robinhood 的 100 强排名中排名第 57 位。这导致去年价格上涨了 135%，使 SQ 的市值超过 1000 亿美元，与中型公司的波动性相媲美。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a&nbsp;banking license&nbsp;via Square Financial Services.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，价格和估值似乎是合理的，该公司通过 Cash App、比特币 (BTC-USD)、PPP 贷款逐步增加收入并扩大产品组合，最近还通过 Square Financial Services 凭借银行牌照深耕商业贷款业务。</blockquote></p><p> However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于对严重依赖比特币收入的未来收入预测的猜测，这些估值正逐渐脱离公司及其核心业务的基本面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 历史财务信息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，SQ 还可能面临与小企业定位相关的其他几个问题；政策和法规；以及一般宏观经济因素，这些因素可能会产生不利因素，影响其估值，并给投资者带来不对称的下行风险，我将在下面进行推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家支付处理和商业工具提供商，促进企业/卖家和个人之间的交易，并为他们提供硬件、在线基础设施和分析。此外，它还通过现金应用程序为个人提供服务，该应用程序似乎正在呈指数级增长，允许用户发送、接收、持有和投资资金，最近还推出了比特币。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度股东信 - 现金应用程序流入与毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of March 2020, the&nbsp;company has received a Banking License&nbsp;from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月，该公司已获得联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）颁发的银行许可证，可以向使用SQ进行支付处理的零售商发放商业贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于所有这些积极消息，根据未来增长预测，该股在过去 3 年中上涨了 330% 以上，并且自 2020 年以来一直追赶收入预期，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p><p><blockquote>这在新冠疫情期间很常见，因为未知的水域意味着营收增长对于生存至关重要。此外，美联储看似无休止的印钞，加上零利率，意味着资金流入显示出最高增长潜力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与每股收益预测和 2021 年收入预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在2021年第一季度，随着印刷放缓，收益率开始上升，联邦政府对个人的转移支付消散，因此不断增加的收入预期开始对市场意味着更少，导致SQ价格走势在200美元至280美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 数据（年初至今平方价）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Quantitative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数量的</b></blockquote></p><p> Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，SQ 相对于支付处理行业表现良好，为股东带来了约 12% 的价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector &gt;$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与支付处理行业今年迄今为止 &gt;500 亿美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在远期收益和收入的基础上与这些公司进行评估时，也就不足为奇了。SQ 2021 年和 2022 年的盈利增长高于平均水平和中位数，2021 年收入增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，行业比较（支付处理商）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然与同行相比，SQ 的远期市盈率似乎被夸大了，但其远期市盈率相对较小，低于行业平均水平和中位数，这或许证明了其当前价值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一旦你从等式中删除比特币收入，你就会得到更夸张的前瞻性 PS 估计，而收入增长要低得多，而收入增长代表了 SQ 的主要业务。</blockquote></p><p> For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于这个等式，我从 2021 年第一季度的业绩中删除了比特币的收入，并根据分析师的平均预期（该预期显示 2021 年第二季度至第四季度的收入几乎没有或没有连续增长）来判断，将该数字乘以 4 倍，年终收入估计为 61.4070 亿美元。前几年，我已经将比特币从收入中剔除。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 收入增长（2018 年至 2021 年比特币与不包括比特币的预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 与行业比较（收入估计不包括比特币）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，这描绘了一幅非常不同的公司图景，虽然收入增长仍略高于同样具有高市盈率的竞争对手，但突然之间，盈利估值看起来更有意义，并且很难证明远期市盈率高于平均水平 3 倍，高于中位数 4.5 倍。尤其是当美国运通公司（AXP）、万事达卡公司（MA）、PayPal控股公司（PYPL）和维萨卡公司（V）等公司的每股收益平均高出4倍时。其中大多数支付股息，并具有类似的增长估计，波动风险较小。</blockquote></p><p> Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which&nbsp;Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p><p><blockquote>许多人会认为“这并不重要，因为BTC现在是他们收入指标的一部分，除了交易量之外，重要的是”。不过，我举一个 2018 年比特币抛售的例子，其中比特币下跌了 70%，交易量也从高点下降了约 75%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Bitcoinvisuals.com（2018年比特币市场交易量）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，如果比特币因全球监管加强而继续回调，这将给投资者带来巨大的下行风险，因为该公司基本上是根据比特币支撑的收入指标进行交易的。很简单，比特币的价格下降可能意味着收入预期的下调，从而导致SQ价格的高度波动回撤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（平方价格相关性 - 收入、每股收益和 EBITDA）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股与同行相比的历史波动性，这种情况变得越来越有可能，而且它也成为共识空头头寸也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者（SQ 与行业比较隐含和已实现波动性以及空头利息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend&nbsp;in which the author suggests that&nbsp;SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in&nbsp;I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的分析， 作者认为 SQ 2025 年的增长基本上是在我不得不同意的价值趋势中定价的。SQ 对收入预测的依赖（比特币大幅放大了收入预测）给投资者带来了中短期内不对称的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macro</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宏观的</b></blockquote></p><p> Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们正处于重新开放的过程中，但许多事情仍然不确定，如需求可持续性水平、就业增长和创造以及通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p><p><blockquote>虽然媒体的情绪总体上是积极的，但在我们得出结论之前，有几个表面之下的宏观经济问题需要解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Environment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小型企业环境</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p><p><blockquote>SQ的MRQ显示，近49%的毛利润来自卖家生态系统（小企业）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 10Q 第 39 页 - 分部毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with &lt;$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>其中大部分来自总付款额&lt;500,000美元的卖家（69.5%）。这使得square在很大程度上受到小商业周期波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p><p><blockquote>深入研究商业形成统计数据，有一幅美好的画面，2021年5月超过500,000份商业申请为SQ提供了无尽的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Census.gov（商业应用，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p><p><blockquote>同样，当我们更深入地挖掘并查看对老牌小企业乐观情绪进行排名的统计数据时，情况开始扭曲，并开始看起来像2008年的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 乐观，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当我们审视小企业未来的扩张前景时，这也降至低点，与2008年的情况类似。这可能表明 SQ 毛利率的面包和黄油可能不会以之前 2017 年至 2020 年期间的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，应该指出的是，小企业给出其负面前景的两个主要原因是“经济状况”和“政治气候”，这可能与2020年的选举、COVID、最近的政策变化有关，并且有些短暂。或者，它可能类似于 2008 年至 2016 年的缓慢 3 月，我们根本不知道，除了这是一个较低的读数，因此可能会影响 SQ 的高收入和盈利增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望原因，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Lending</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业贷款</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the&nbsp;PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，SQ 显然旨在通过获得银行牌照来巩固其在商业贷款领域的地位。这对该公司来说非常积极，因为他们拥有庞大且不断增长的小型企业用户群、自 2014 年以来的经验以及于 2021 年 5 月 31 日停止的 PPP 计划。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p><p><blockquote>目前，由于新冠疫情的复苏努力，银行贷款已经减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（美国商业银行-商业和工业贷款）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the&nbsp;monthly NFIB report. Although, an&nbsp;American Banker survey&nbsp;is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过NFIB月度报告中的信用状况指数来验证。尽管如此，美国银行家调查报告称，86%的小企业发现很难获得信贷，不得不求助于个人信贷。</blockquote></p><p> This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of&nbsp;capital restraints&nbsp;placed on Wells Fargo &amp; Company (WFC).</p><p><blockquote>这对 SQ 来说是积极的，因为这将使他们能够填补市场上小企业的信贷缺口。尽管我认为这将是短暂的，因为有人猜测，当美联储缩减规模时，他们也将宣布解除对富国银行公司（WFC）的资本限制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：瑞士信贷（全球货币快报 - 2021 年 5 月 25 日）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had&nbsp;lifted these restraints&nbsp;to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美联储在 2020 年初取消了这些限制，以通过 PPP 计划帮助小企业，而缩减规模有着扰乱市场的历史，这种情况发生的可能性相当大。如果这种情况发生，我怀疑 WFC 将再次成为小企业信贷领域的巨头，并且由于其在该领域广泛的网络和历史，将成为 SQ 的强劲竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin, Legislation &amp; Gensler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币、立法和根斯勒</b></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor&nbsp;banks&nbsp;have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the&nbsp;purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年下半年和2021年上半年的大部分时间，比特币一直是头条新闻，这是有充分理由的。它在散户交易者和投资者中越来越受欢迎，并表现出非凡的升值。此外，一些小银行对这种媒介感兴趣，尽管许多银行和金融机构已经明确禁止使用他们的服务购买比特币。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as&nbsp;money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p><p><blockquote>他们反对的主要原因很可能与非法活动有关，如洗钱、恐怖主义、虚假交易量，以及我不想参与的类似活动，银行也不想参与。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China&nbsp;and&nbsp;India.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在最近的炒作中，许多国家现在正在介入监管比特币的使用，但其他国家更进一步，正在制定立法禁止其使用和开采，最明显的是中国和印度。</blockquote></p><p> This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p><p><blockquote>自 2021 年 5 月 ATHs 以来，这对比特币的价格产生了负面影响，约为 65,000 美元，此后回撤了 -46%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with&nbsp;Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p><p><blockquote>这对比特币的未来也是极其不利的，因为大部分比特币采矿是在中国进行的（年初至今约70%），采矿的算力与价格相关。因此，如果这些价格因中国采矿活动减少而下降，价格肯定会随之下跌，从而影响 SQ 的比特币持有量和未来交易量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：剑桥大学（剑桥比特币年初至今电力消耗指数）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst the SEC has come out and said that&nbsp;Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has&nbsp;warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to&nbsp;2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国证券交易委员会已经出面表示比特币监管不在他们2021年的议程上，但Gary Gensler警告投资者要谨慎。Gensler在保护投资者的法规方面也有着悠久的历史，尽管没有将比特币列入2021年的议程，但我建议读者研究他在2000年和2008年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，总体而言，这对比特币和 SQ 来说不是好兆头。很可能会有进一步的监管而不是采纳，对其价格产生负面影响，导致 2018 年产量下降以及采矿活动重演。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体经济 - 零售业的担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout&nbsp;2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p><p><blockquote>另外，我们也可能看到零售业未来的负面形势。零售业的复苏大部分并非由“被压抑的需求”推动，而是主要通过 2020 年全年和 2021 年初发放的补贴。当检查下图时，我们可以看到，一旦你减去转移收据（政府刺激支票和就业福利——红线），收入就不是以前的样子了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行（可支配收入与实际收入减去转移支付与个人储蓄与零售贸易销售额）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们可以看到，零售销售的大部分飙升（紫色）主要是由刺激支票推动的，刺激支票支票支撑了可支配收入（蓝色）和消费者储蓄（绿色），尽管现在刺激已经结束，人们不得不开始挖掘他们的储蓄，3月至4月期间，储蓄环比下降了54%。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is&nbsp;considered to be the most revealing&nbsp;amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>在研究U6失业率时，消费者支出情况变得更糟，经济学家认为U6失业率是最能说明问题的，因为它包括失业、就业不足和沮丧的求职者。总的来说，这对未来的可自由支配消费模式来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Macrotrends.net（U6 失业率 vs U5 失业率 vs 官方数据）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p><p><blockquote>最后，食品和能源成本的上涨（我预计食品成本将持续上涨）应该会阻碍消费者未来的可自由支配支出。我之前写过关于马赛克公司（MOS）和安德森公司（ANDE）的文章，概述了我对这一趋势的理由。</blockquote></p><p> In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，我们可以根据2019年底的数据看到他们对非必需消费品支出的历史敞口。当考虑以下数字时：零售；专业服务、美容和个人护理、家居和维修、休闲和娱乐以及休闲使用，总敞口约为59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista（Raynor de Best - 卖家行业 GPV，2019 年 12 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p><p><blockquote>虽然由于比特币的权重，这可能不会对其收入数据产生重大影响，但我确实预计这将削弱未来的毛利润数据，并随着刺激措施进一步消退，对利润率产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p><p><blockquote>在检查SQ的财务状况时，我们可以很容易地看到，比特币是推动其收入增长的主要因素（MRQ占总收入的69%），其估值就是由此得出的（参见上面的介绍部分-SQ价格与收入部分；和定量部分-SQ价格相关性）。</blockquote></p><p> From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>从他们2021年第一季度股东信第12页中，他们表示，截至2021年3月31日，他们持有的股份的公允价值为4.72亿美元。这一天的收盘价为58,918.83美元，约合8,011个比特币。他们还表示，他们最初在这一时期和第四季度向比特币投资了 2 亿美元，因此他们的平均价格约为每个比特币 25,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p><p><blockquote>目前，比特币的价格约为34,600美元，它似乎也在努力寻找牵引力，特别是当你检查一些其他趋势时。例如，看看谷歌趋势上“购买比特币”的搜索趋势，这显然正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 全球 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当你将这些数据与刺激支付进行比较时，很明显两者之间在2020年下半年存在关系，最近的许多猜测可能是由政府补贴驱动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USA.Gov（新冠刺激支票日期）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>搜索量的激增大约发生在后两次政府刺激支票的时间，滞后几天到几周。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 美国 12 个月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这也与比特币在2020年12月和2021年1月的价格上涨以及2021年3月和4月的失败反弹相吻合。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（比特币价格 1 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在这个例子中，如果我们持续抛售-70%，这与2018年发生的情况类似。我们将回到2020年11月大约20,000美元的比特币价格。</blockquote></p><p> This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在数量减少、进一步立法和哈希率下降的基础上，这仍然是可行的。也可以推测，SQ可能会产生4000万美元的减值费用，这将极大地影响经营利润、净利润和股东收益以及未来预测。尽管这纯粹是理论上的，没有考虑本季度的交易，例如在 ATHs 或附近的购买或销售。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于未来缺乏刺激付款和消费者可自由支配支出收紧，随着进入该领域的资金减少和交易量下降，比特币产生的收入也可能下降。对 SQ 的收入预测以及随后的价格和估值产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash App</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金应用程序</b></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，Cash App 似乎正在呈指数级增长，成为用户交易的可行平台，每月交易活跃客户超过 3600 万，同比增长 50%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p><p><blockquote>然而，现金应用程序的这种增长未来可能是不可持续的，SQ 在其季度备案说明中对此进行了详细阐述：</blockquote></p><p>   Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from&nbsp;  <b>government relief programs</b>&nbsp;most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i>  Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>Cash App 收入受益于活跃 Cash App 客户数量的增长以及<b>政府救济计划</b>最近于2020年12月下旬和2021年3月通过成为法律，以及2020年通过的早期刺激计划的累积收益。这些计划提供了额外的刺激救济和失业救济，导致消费者支出和流入我们的现金应用生态系统的增加。Cash App 的收入增长可能不会在未来几个季度保持在相同的水平，并且可能会受到进一步刺激救济和福利计划的颁布以及比特币的需求和市场价格等因素的影响。<i>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度第 10 季度文件 - 第 49 页）</i>Cash App的部分问题是理论上的持续使用和未来的采用。去年的大部分增长主要是由现金应用生态系统的刺激支付推动的，因此在这种情况下是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p><p><blockquote>该应用程序的搜索量出现了两次急剧上升：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>April 12-18 2020</li>  <li>January 24-30 2021</li> </ul> These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2020年4月12日至18日</li><li>2021年1月24日至30日</li></ul>这些与刺激付款相吻合，因为他们最初发送刺激付款，并逐渐将其存入人们的账户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（现金应用搜索词 - 美国 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>因此，随着政府刺激付款的结束，比特币再次失去相关性，越来越多的人重返工作岗位，减少日内交易，这可能会对未来的用户增长指标产生负面影响，影响 SQ 收入预期、毛利润数据及其收益。</blockquote></p><p> Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有许多其他更可行的平台，另一位寻求阿尔法贡献者价值趋势在这里详细阐述了这些平台。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要记住他们如何定义这些用户，“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”如下：</blockquote></p><p>   ... has at least  <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i>  So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p><p><blockquote>...至少有<b>一笔金融交易</b>在指定期间内使用Cash App内的任何产品或服务。<i>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（2020 年第四季度股东信 - 第 4 页）</i>因此，如果客户每月一次从雇主那里收到工资或失业救济金，并每月一次将其全部转入他们的银行账户，他们就是“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”...</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p><p><blockquote>也许“活跃”客户的更好量化指标是大于5笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p><p><blockquote>检查 SQ 的技术面，很明显该股目前在 200 美元至 280 美元之间波动，多次尝试突破 250 美元，两次尝试在 300 美元附近失败，显示出一些势头正在消退的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 FINVIZ（SQ 图）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在检查暗池订单流量时，由于暗池处于低位，当前的涨势有可能继续，这可能会持续到 8 月份的收益。虽然我不会抱太大希望，除非出现一些严肃的好消息，比特币重返ATHs。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Squeezemetrics.com（SQ Dark Pools 与 Implied Vol 2 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>从13F备案中我们也可以看到，不少基金都减少了敞口，平仓，新进持仓较少。看跌期权与看涨期权的比率也变得相当高，尤其是对于一只市值达 1000 亿美元的股票来说，这表明我们并不是唯一有同样想法的人。</blockquote></p><p> Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p><p><blockquote>不过，需要谨慎，因为 SQ 与比特币的问题显然正在成为共识交易，当这些看跌期权被解除时，伽马可能会变为正，这可能会导致该股大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Whalewisdom.com（SQ基金定位）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been&nbsp;significant liquidity issues&nbsp;the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，关于 ARK ETF，过去 6 个月出现重大流动性问题也就不足为奇了，我同意另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的论点，即我们将看到这些 ETF 中持有的股票价格回归均值。值得注意的是，凯西已经大大减少了她对SQ的接触，她可能会选择她的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Cathiesark.com（持有的 SQ 股票 - 所有 ETF）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于上述信息，这是一家很难做空的公司。它要么会带来巨大的回报，要么会因为它的波动性而撕掉你的脸。此外，许多基金希望对财务报表上有比特币的公司进行一定程度的投资。因此，如果你要自担风险将其交易为空头，建议谨慎行事，你应该始终选择你的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p><p><blockquote>根据 SQ ATR 的波动性，SQ 可能会在今年年底跌至约 100 美元的低点，有 40% 的时间是有利的。如果你把比特币完全从等式中剔除，这与我2021年底的价格一致。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者（SQ ATR计算器）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这样做是不明智的，因为这是他们收入的一部分，无论2021年初的比特币销量有多高，年底的销量有多低。</blockquote></p><p> I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p><p><blockquote>我确实预计该股将再次下跌并重新测试 200 美元，可能跌至 160 美元。虽然用SQ确定估值非常困难，主要是因为估值来自比特币收入，也来自基金和市场在未来采用资产时的感知价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p><p><blockquote>如果市场开始再次认为比特币无关紧要，我预计 SQ 将慢慢抛售至 150 美元至 160 美元之间（-37% 下行空间），并且不太可能反弹至 300 美元以上（25% 上行空间）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，应注意以下风险。</blockquote></p><p> The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p><p><blockquote>不管你喜不喜欢SQ，公司都在成长。主要问题是：市场价值比特币会有任何现实的基础吗？有没有比特币，它增长了多少？有没有比特币，未来的潜在增长是多少？市场相信吗，或者就此而言，市场在乎吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币失去相关性，从谷歌趋势来看，更有可能的是，假设 SQ 将因此而在 2021 年下半年遭受损失，并对收入预期造成重大打击，这并不奇怪。然而，如果比特币的采用率增加，负面新闻消失，因为这是一家成长型公司，它可能会继续反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p><p><blockquote>此外，消费者支出模式正在产生混合数据，上面我提出了一个熊市案例。如果人们的行为发生变化，例如申请将增加经济支出的工作，并有望促进小企业增长，增加小企业乐观情绪和扩张，这对SQ作为支付处理领域的周期性业务非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>同样，谨慎是必要的，尽管我确实认为公司未来的增长是有价格的，SQ 持有者面临的下行风险高于上行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>SQ 是一家高增长公司，从长远来看有一些潜在的积极因素；然而，其估值非常值得怀疑，因为其高收入估计主要来自比特币交易，而不是底线盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>从数量的角度来看，它在同行中看起来不错，但经过进一步检查，它似乎被严重高估了，因为未来的增长，至少在2021年，可能来自比特币。此外，如果没有政府的持续刺激，其现金应用程序采用统计数据可能不会继续保持同样的运行率。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，它还面临着几个潜在的宏观经济障碍，涉及小企业风险、贷款竞争对手、消费者交易竞争对手、比特币立法和零售需求疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li>  <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li>  <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li>  <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li>  <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从表面上看，Square 似乎是一家成长型公司，也是一项良好的投资，具有强劲的收入增长和庞大的现金应用程序用户群。</li><li>事实上，该公司一直在努力将营收转化为利润。</li><li>这导致 Square 扩大其产品，以证明夸大的收入估值是合理的，而这可能永远不会带来有意义的盈利增长。</li><li>虽然乍一看，它的现金应用故事似乎是一个萌芽的前景，但它可能只不过是基于必要性的暂时增长。</li><li>鉴于目前的估值和日益增长的比特币阻力，Square 可能面临收入和盈利的大幅下调。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the&nbsp;most popular stocks&nbsp;among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p><p><blockquote>Square Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）是最受散户交易者和投资者欢迎的股票之一，在 Robinhood 的 100 强排名中排名第 57 位。这导致去年价格上涨了 135%，使 SQ 的市值超过 1000 亿美元，与中型公司的波动性相媲美。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a&nbsp;banking license&nbsp;via Square Financial Services.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，价格和估值似乎是合理的，该公司通过 Cash App、比特币 (BTC-USD)、PPP 贷款逐步增加收入并扩大产品组合，最近还通过 Square Financial Services 凭借银行牌照深耕商业贷款业务。</blockquote></p><p> However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于对严重依赖比特币收入的未来收入预测的猜测，这些估值正逐渐脱离公司及其核心业务的基本面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 历史财务信息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，SQ 还可能面临与小企业定位相关的其他几个问题；政策和法规；以及一般宏观经济因素，这些因素可能会产生不利因素，影响其估值，并给投资者带来不对称的下行风险，我将在下面进行推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家支付处理和商业工具提供商，促进企业/卖家和个人之间的交易，并为他们提供硬件、在线基础设施和分析。此外，它还通过现金应用程序为个人提供服务，该应用程序似乎正在呈指数级增长，允许用户发送、接收、持有和投资资金，最近还推出了比特币。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度股东信 - 现金应用程序流入与毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of March 2020, the&nbsp;company has received a Banking License&nbsp;from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月，该公司已获得联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）颁发的银行许可证，可以向使用SQ进行支付处理的零售商发放商业贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于所有这些积极消息，根据未来增长预测，该股在过去 3 年中上涨了 330% 以上，并且自 2020 年以来一直追赶收入预期，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p><p><blockquote>这在新冠疫情期间很常见，因为未知的水域意味着营收增长对于生存至关重要。此外，美联储看似无休止的印钞，加上零利率，意味着资金流入显示出最高增长潜力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与每股收益预测和 2021 年收入预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在2021年第一季度，随着印刷放缓，收益率开始上升，联邦政府对个人的转移支付消散，因此不断增加的收入预期开始对市场意味着更少，导致SQ价格走势在200美元至280美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 数据（年初至今平方价）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Quantitative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数量的</b></blockquote></p><p> Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，SQ 相对于支付处理行业表现良好，为股东带来了约 12% 的价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector &gt;$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与支付处理行业今年迄今为止 &gt;500 亿美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在远期收益和收入的基础上与这些公司进行评估时，也就不足为奇了。SQ 2021 年和 2022 年的盈利增长高于平均水平和中位数，2021 年收入增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，行业比较（支付处理商）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然与同行相比，SQ 的远期市盈率似乎被夸大了，但其远期市盈率相对较小，低于行业平均水平和中位数，这或许证明了其当前价值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一旦你从等式中删除比特币收入，你就会得到更夸张的前瞻性 PS 估计，而收入增长要低得多，而收入增长代表了 SQ 的主要业务。</blockquote></p><p> For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于这个等式，我从 2021 年第一季度的业绩中删除了比特币的收入，并根据分析师的平均预期（该预期显示 2021 年第二季度至第四季度的收入几乎没有或没有连续增长）来判断，将该数字乘以 4 倍，年终收入估计为 61.4070 亿美元。前几年，我已经将比特币从收入中剔除。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 收入增长（2018 年至 2021 年比特币与不包括比特币的预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 与行业比较（收入估计不包括比特币）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，这描绘了一幅非常不同的公司图景，虽然收入增长仍略高于同样具有高市盈率的竞争对手，但突然之间，盈利估值看起来更有意义，并且很难证明远期市盈率高于平均水平 3 倍，高于中位数 4.5 倍。尤其是当美国运通公司（AXP）、万事达卡公司（MA）、PayPal控股公司（PYPL）和维萨卡公司（V）等公司的每股收益平均高出4倍时。其中大多数支付股息，并具有类似的增长估计，波动风险较小。</blockquote></p><p> Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which&nbsp;Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p><p><blockquote>许多人会认为“这并不重要，因为BTC现在是他们收入指标的一部分，除了交易量之外，重要的是”。不过，我举一个 2018 年比特币抛售的例子，其中比特币下跌了 70%，交易量也从高点下降了约 75%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Bitcoinvisuals.com（2018年比特币市场交易量）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，如果比特币因全球监管加强而继续回调，这将给投资者带来巨大的下行风险，因为该公司基本上是根据比特币支撑的收入指标进行交易的。很简单，比特币的价格下降可能意味着收入预期的下调，从而导致SQ价格的高度波动回撤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（平方价格相关性 - 收入、每股收益和 EBITDA）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股与同行相比的历史波动性，这种情况变得越来越有可能，而且它也成为共识空头头寸也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者（SQ 与行业比较隐含和已实现波动性以及空头利息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend&nbsp;in which the author suggests that&nbsp;SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in&nbsp;I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的分析， 作者认为 SQ 2025 年的增长基本上是在我不得不同意的价值趋势中定价的。SQ 对收入预测的依赖（比特币大幅放大了收入预测）给投资者带来了中短期内不对称的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macro</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宏观的</b></blockquote></p><p> Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们正处于重新开放的过程中，但许多事情仍然不确定，如需求可持续性水平、就业增长和创造以及通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p><p><blockquote>虽然媒体的情绪总体上是积极的，但在我们得出结论之前，有几个表面之下的宏观经济问题需要解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Environment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小型企业环境</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p><p><blockquote>SQ的MRQ显示，近49%的毛利润来自卖家生态系统（小企业）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 10Q 第 39 页 - 分部毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with &lt;$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>其中大部分来自总付款额&lt;500,000美元的卖家（69.5%）。这使得square在很大程度上受到小商业周期波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p><p><blockquote>深入研究商业形成统计数据，有一幅美好的画面，2021年5月超过500,000份商业申请为SQ提供了无尽的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Census.gov（商业应用，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p><p><blockquote>同样，当我们更深入地挖掘并查看对老牌小企业乐观情绪进行排名的统计数据时，情况开始扭曲，并开始看起来像2008年的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 乐观，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当我们审视小企业未来的扩张前景时，这也降至低点，与2008年的情况类似。这可能表明 SQ 毛利率的面包和黄油可能不会以之前 2017 年至 2020 年期间的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，应该指出的是，小企业给出其负面前景的两个主要原因是“经济状况”和“政治气候”，这可能与2020年的选举、COVID、最近的政策变化有关，并且有些短暂。或者，它可能类似于 2008 年至 2016 年的缓慢 3 月，我们根本不知道，除了这是一个较低的读数，因此可能会影响 SQ 的高收入和盈利增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望原因，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Lending</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业贷款</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the&nbsp;PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，SQ 显然旨在通过获得银行牌照来巩固其在商业贷款领域的地位。这对该公司来说非常积极，因为他们拥有庞大且不断增长的小型企业用户群、自 2014 年以来的经验以及于 2021 年 5 月 31 日停止的 PPP 计划。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p><p><blockquote>目前，由于新冠疫情的复苏努力，银行贷款已经减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（美国商业银行-商业和工业贷款）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the&nbsp;monthly NFIB report. Although, an&nbsp;American Banker survey&nbsp;is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过NFIB月度报告中的信用状况指数来验证。尽管如此，美国银行家调查报告称，86%的小企业发现很难获得信贷，不得不求助于个人信贷。</blockquote></p><p> This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of&nbsp;capital restraints&nbsp;placed on Wells Fargo &amp; Company (WFC).</p><p><blockquote>这对 SQ 来说是积极的，因为这将使他们能够填补市场上小企业的信贷缺口。尽管我认为这将是短暂的，因为有人猜测，当美联储缩减规模时，他们也将宣布解除对富国银行公司（WFC）的资本限制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：瑞士信贷（全球货币快报 - 2021 年 5 月 25 日）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had&nbsp;lifted these restraints&nbsp;to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美联储在 2020 年初取消了这些限制，以通过 PPP 计划帮助小企业，而缩减规模有着扰乱市场的历史，这种情况发生的可能性相当大。如果这种情况发生，我怀疑 WFC 将再次成为小企业信贷领域的巨头，并且由于其在该领域广泛的网络和历史，将成为 SQ 的强劲竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin, Legislation &amp; Gensler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币、立法和根斯勒</b></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor&nbsp;banks&nbsp;have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the&nbsp;purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年下半年和2021年上半年的大部分时间，比特币一直是头条新闻，这是有充分理由的。它在散户交易者和投资者中越来越受欢迎，并表现出非凡的升值。此外，一些小银行对这种媒介感兴趣，尽管许多银行和金融机构已经明确禁止使用他们的服务购买比特币。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as&nbsp;money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p><p><blockquote>他们反对的主要原因很可能与非法活动有关，如洗钱、恐怖主义、虚假交易量，以及我不想参与的类似活动，银行也不想参与。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China&nbsp;and&nbsp;India.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在最近的炒作中，许多国家现在正在介入监管比特币的使用，但其他国家更进一步，正在制定立法禁止其使用和开采，最明显的是中国和印度。</blockquote></p><p> This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p><p><blockquote>自 2021 年 5 月 ATHs 以来，这对比特币的价格产生了负面影响，约为 65,000 美元，此后回撤了 -46%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with&nbsp;Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p><p><blockquote>这对比特币的未来也是极其不利的，因为大部分比特币采矿是在中国进行的（年初至今约70%），采矿的算力与价格相关。因此，如果这些价格因中国采矿活动减少而下降，价格肯定会随之下跌，从而影响 SQ 的比特币持有量和未来交易量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：剑桥大学（剑桥比特币年初至今电力消耗指数）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst the SEC has come out and said that&nbsp;Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has&nbsp;warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to&nbsp;2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国证券交易委员会已经出面表示比特币监管不在他们2021年的议程上，但Gary Gensler警告投资者要谨慎。Gensler在保护投资者的法规方面也有着悠久的历史，尽管没有将比特币列入2021年的议程，但我建议读者研究他在2000年和2008年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，总体而言，这对比特币和 SQ 来说不是好兆头。很可能会有进一步的监管而不是采纳，对其价格产生负面影响，导致 2018 年产量下降以及采矿活动重演。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体经济 - 零售业的担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout&nbsp;2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p><p><blockquote>另外，我们也可能看到零售业未来的负面形势。零售业的复苏大部分并非由“被压抑的需求”推动，而是主要通过 2020 年全年和 2021 年初发放的补贴。当检查下图时，我们可以看到，一旦你减去转移收据（政府刺激支票和就业福利——红线），收入就不是以前的样子了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行（可支配收入与实际收入减去转移支付与个人储蓄与零售贸易销售额）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们可以看到，零售销售的大部分飙升（紫色）主要是由刺激支票推动的，刺激支票支票支撑了可支配收入（蓝色）和消费者储蓄（绿色），尽管现在刺激已经结束，人们不得不开始挖掘他们的储蓄，3月至4月期间，储蓄环比下降了54%。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is&nbsp;considered to be the most revealing&nbsp;amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>在研究U6失业率时，消费者支出情况变得更糟，经济学家认为U6失业率是最能说明问题的，因为它包括失业、就业不足和沮丧的求职者。总的来说，这对未来的可自由支配消费模式来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Macrotrends.net（U6 失业率 vs U5 失业率 vs 官方数据）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p><p><blockquote>最后，食品和能源成本的上涨（我预计食品成本将持续上涨）应该会阻碍消费者未来的可自由支配支出。我之前写过关于马赛克公司（MOS）和安德森公司（ANDE）的文章，概述了我对这一趋势的理由。</blockquote></p><p> In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，我们可以根据2019年底的数据看到他们对非必需消费品支出的历史敞口。当考虑以下数字时：零售；专业服务、美容和个人护理、家居和维修、休闲和娱乐以及休闲使用，总敞口约为59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista（Raynor de Best - 卖家行业 GPV，2019 年 12 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p><p><blockquote>虽然由于比特币的权重，这可能不会对其收入数据产生重大影响，但我确实预计这将削弱未来的毛利润数据，并随着刺激措施进一步消退，对利润率产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p><p><blockquote>在检查SQ的财务状况时，我们可以很容易地看到，比特币是推动其收入增长的主要因素（MRQ占总收入的69%），其估值就是由此得出的（参见上面的介绍部分-SQ价格与收入部分；和定量部分-SQ价格相关性）。</blockquote></p><p> From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>从他们2021年第一季度股东信第12页中，他们表示，截至2021年3月31日，他们持有的股份的公允价值为4.72亿美元。这一天的收盘价为58,918.83美元，约合8,011个比特币。他们还表示，他们最初在这一时期和第四季度向比特币投资了 2 亿美元，因此他们的平均价格约为每个比特币 25,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p><p><blockquote>目前，比特币的价格约为34,600美元，它似乎也在努力寻找牵引力，特别是当你检查一些其他趋势时。例如，看看谷歌趋势上“购买比特币”的搜索趋势，这显然正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 全球 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当你将这些数据与刺激支付进行比较时，很明显两者之间在2020年下半年存在关系，最近的许多猜测可能是由政府补贴驱动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USA.Gov（新冠刺激支票日期）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>搜索量的激增大约发生在后两次政府刺激支票的时间，滞后几天到几周。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 美国 12 个月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这也与比特币在2020年12月和2021年1月的价格上涨以及2021年3月和4月的失败反弹相吻合。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（比特币价格 1 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在这个例子中，如果我们持续抛售-70%，这与2018年发生的情况类似。我们将回到2020年11月大约20,000美元的比特币价格。</blockquote></p><p> This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在数量减少、进一步立法和哈希率下降的基础上，这仍然是可行的。也可以推测，SQ可能会产生4000万美元的减值费用，这将极大地影响经营利润、净利润和股东收益以及未来预测。尽管这纯粹是理论上的，没有考虑本季度的交易，例如在 ATHs 或附近的购买或销售。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于未来缺乏刺激付款和消费者可自由支配支出收紧，随着进入该领域的资金减少和交易量下降，比特币产生的收入也可能下降。对 SQ 的收入预测以及随后的价格和估值产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash App</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金应用程序</b></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，Cash App 似乎正在呈指数级增长，成为用户交易的可行平台，每月交易活跃客户超过 3600 万，同比增长 50%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p><p><blockquote>然而，现金应用程序的这种增长未来可能是不可持续的，SQ 在其季度备案说明中对此进行了详细阐述：</blockquote></p><p>   Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from&nbsp;  <b>government relief programs</b>&nbsp;most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i>  Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>Cash App 收入受益于活跃 Cash App 客户数量的增长以及<b>政府救济计划</b>最近于2020年12月下旬和2021年3月通过成为法律，以及2020年通过的早期刺激计划的累积收益。这些计划提供了额外的刺激救济和失业救济，导致消费者支出和流入我们的现金应用生态系统的增加。Cash App 的收入增长可能不会在未来几个季度保持在相同的水平，并且可能会受到进一步刺激救济和福利计划的颁布以及比特币的需求和市场价格等因素的影响。<i>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度第 10 季度文件 - 第 49 页）</i>Cash App的部分问题是理论上的持续使用和未来的采用。去年的大部分增长主要是由现金应用生态系统的刺激支付推动的，因此在这种情况下是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p><p><blockquote>该应用程序的搜索量出现了两次急剧上升：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>April 12-18 2020</li>  <li>January 24-30 2021</li> </ul> These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2020年4月12日至18日</li><li>2021年1月24日至30日</li></ul>这些与刺激付款相吻合，因为他们最初发送刺激付款，并逐渐将其存入人们的账户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（现金应用搜索词 - 美国 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>因此，随着政府刺激付款的结束，比特币再次失去相关性，越来越多的人重返工作岗位，减少日内交易，这可能会对未来的用户增长指标产生负面影响，影响 SQ 收入预期、毛利润数据及其收益。</blockquote></p><p> Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有许多其他更可行的平台，另一位寻求阿尔法贡献者价值趋势在这里详细阐述了这些平台。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要记住他们如何定义这些用户，“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”如下：</blockquote></p><p>   ... has at least  <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i>  So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p><p><blockquote>...至少有<b>一笔金融交易</b>在指定期间内使用Cash App内的任何产品或服务。<i>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（2020 年第四季度股东信 - 第 4 页）</i>因此，如果客户每月一次从雇主那里收到工资或失业救济金，并每月一次将其全部转入他们的银行账户，他们就是“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”...</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p><p><blockquote>也许“活跃”客户的更好量化指标是大于5笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p><p><blockquote>检查 SQ 的技术面，很明显该股目前在 200 美元至 280 美元之间波动，多次尝试突破 250 美元，两次尝试在 300 美元附近失败，显示出一些势头正在消退的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 FINVIZ（SQ 图）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在检查暗池订单流量时，由于暗池处于低位，当前的涨势有可能继续，这可能会持续到 8 月份的收益。虽然我不会抱太大希望，除非出现一些严肃的好消息，比特币重返ATHs。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Squeezemetrics.com（SQ Dark Pools 与 Implied Vol 2 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>从13F备案中我们也可以看到，不少基金都减少了敞口，平仓，新进持仓较少。看跌期权与看涨期权的比率也变得相当高，尤其是对于一只市值达 1000 亿美元的股票来说，这表明我们并不是唯一有同样想法的人。</blockquote></p><p> Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p><p><blockquote>不过，需要谨慎，因为 SQ 与比特币的问题显然正在成为共识交易，当这些看跌期权被解除时，伽马可能会变为正，这可能会导致该股大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Whalewisdom.com（SQ基金定位）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been&nbsp;significant liquidity issues&nbsp;the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，关于 ARK ETF，过去 6 个月出现重大流动性问题也就不足为奇了，我同意另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的论点，即我们将看到这些 ETF 中持有的股票价格回归均值。值得注意的是，凯西已经大大减少了她对SQ的接触，她可能会选择她的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Cathiesark.com（持有的 SQ 股票 - 所有 ETF）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于上述信息，这是一家很难做空的公司。它要么会带来巨大的回报，要么会因为它的波动性而撕掉你的脸。此外，许多基金希望对财务报表上有比特币的公司进行一定程度的投资。因此，如果你要自担风险将其交易为空头，建议谨慎行事，你应该始终选择你的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p><p><blockquote>根据 SQ ATR 的波动性，SQ 可能会在今年年底跌至约 100 美元的低点，有 40% 的时间是有利的。如果你把比特币完全从等式中剔除，这与我2021年底的价格一致。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者（SQ ATR计算器）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这样做是不明智的，因为这是他们收入的一部分，无论2021年初的比特币销量有多高，年底的销量有多低。</blockquote></p><p> I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p><p><blockquote>我确实预计该股将再次下跌并重新测试 200 美元，可能跌至 160 美元。虽然用SQ确定估值非常困难，主要是因为估值来自比特币收入，也来自基金和市场在未来采用资产时的感知价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p><p><blockquote>如果市场开始再次认为比特币无关紧要，我预计 SQ 将慢慢抛售至 150 美元至 160 美元之间（-37% 下行空间），并且不太可能反弹至 300 美元以上（25% 上行空间）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，应注意以下风险。</blockquote></p><p> The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p><p><blockquote>不管你喜不喜欢SQ，公司都在成长。主要问题是：市场价值比特币会有任何现实的基础吗？有没有比特币，它增长了多少？有没有比特币，未来的潜在增长是多少？市场相信吗，或者就此而言，市场在乎吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币失去相关性，从谷歌趋势来看，更有可能的是，假设 SQ 将因此而在 2021 年下半年遭受损失，并对收入预期造成重大打击，这并不奇怪。然而，如果比特币的采用率增加，负面新闻消失，因为这是一家成长型公司，它可能会继续反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p><p><blockquote>此外，消费者支出模式正在产生混合数据，上面我提出了一个熊市案例。如果人们的行为发生变化，例如申请将增加经济支出的工作，并有望促进小企业增长，增加小企业乐观情绪和扩张，这对SQ作为支付处理领域的周期性业务非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>同样，谨慎是必要的，尽管我确实认为公司未来的增长是有价格的，SQ 持有者面临的下行风险高于上行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>SQ 是一家高增长公司，从长远来看有一些潜在的积极因素；然而，其估值非常值得怀疑，因为其高收入估计主要来自比特币交易，而不是底线盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>从数量的角度来看，它在同行中看起来不错，但经过进一步检查，它似乎被严重高估了，因为未来的增长，至少在2021年，可能来自比特币。此外，如果没有政府的持续刺激，其现金应用程序采用统计数据可能不会继续保持同样的运行率。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，它还面临着几个潜在的宏观经济障碍，涉及小企业风险、贷款竞争对手、消费者交易竞争对手、比特币立法和零售需求疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117734317","content_text":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.\nIn reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.\nThis has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.\nAnd whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.\nGiven the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.\n\nAndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nSquare Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the most popular stocks among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.\nOn the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a banking license via Square Financial Services.\nHowever, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.\nSource: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)\nIn addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.\nOverview\nSQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)\nAs of March 2020, the company has received a Banking License from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.\nGiven all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.\nThis was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)\nHowever, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)\nQuantitative\nYear to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector >$50 bln Year to Date)\nIt is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.\nSource: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)\nWhilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.\nHowever, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.\nFor this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.\nSource: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)\nSource: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)\nAs we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.\nMany will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:\nSource: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)\nOn a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)\nThis becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.\nSource: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)\nGiven the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend in which the author suggests that SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.\nMacro\nWhilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.\nWhilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.\nSmall Business Environment\nSQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)\nThe majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with <$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)\nDelving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.\nSource: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)\nAgain, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)\nFurther, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)\nAdditionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)\nSmall Business Lending\nLooking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.\nCurrently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.\nSource: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)\nThis can be verified through the credit conditions index in the monthly NFIB report. Although, an American Banker survey is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.\nThis is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of capital restraints placed on Wells Fargo & Company (WFC).\nSource: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)\nThere is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had lifted these restraints to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.\nBitcoin, Legislation & Gensler\nBitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor banks have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the purchase of Bitcoin using their services.\nThe primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.\nConsequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China and India.\nThis has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.\nIt is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.\nSource: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)\nWhilst the SEC has come out and said that Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to 2000 and 2008.\nLooking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.\nGeneral Economy - The Worry for Retail\nSeparately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout 2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.\nSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)\nAdditionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.\nThe consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is considered to be the most revealing amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.\nSource: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)\nFinally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.\nIn relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.\nSource: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)\nWhilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.\nFinancials\nBitcoin\nWhen examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).\nFrom their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.\nCurrently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)\nAdditionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.\nSource: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)\nThe spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)\nThis also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.\nSource: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)\nThus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.\nThis is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.\nAdditionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.\nCash App\nOn the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)\nHowever, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:\n\n Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from \n government relief programs most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)\n\nPart of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.\nThe two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:\n\nApril 12-18 2020\nJanuary 24-30 2021\n\nThese coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.\nSource: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)\nTherefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.\nFurther, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.\nIt is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:\n\n ... has at least\n one financial transactionusing any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)\n\nSo, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...\nPerhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.\nTechnicals\nExamining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.\nSource: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)\nWhen examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.\nSource: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)\nFrom the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.\nCaution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.\nSource: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)\nFurther, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been significant liquidity issues the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.\nSource: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)\nGiven the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.\nPrice Targets\nOn the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.\nSource: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)\nHowever, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.\nI do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.\nIf the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).\nRisks\nWith respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.\nThe company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?\nIf the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.\nFurther, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.\nAgain, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.\nSummary\nSQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.\nFrom a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.\nAdditionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":125486783,"gmtCreate":1624686231442,"gmtModify":1633949565664,"author":{"id":"3574848576018567","authorId":"3574848576018567","name":"honkfish","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574848576018567","idStr":"3574848576018567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good news&nbsp;","listText":"Good news&nbsp;","text":"Good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125486783","repostId":"1100072036","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1053,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125850424,"gmtCreate":1624668669368,"gmtModify":1633949891494,"author":{"id":"3574848576018567","authorId":"3574848576018567","name":"honkfish","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574848576018567","idStr":"3574848576018567"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like me please&nbsp;","listText":"Like me please&nbsp;","text":"Like me please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125850424","repostId":"1152075524","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152075524","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624666599,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1152075524?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-26 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Miss What 3 Nasdaq Stocks Do Next Week<blockquote>不要错过 3 只纳斯达克股票下周的表现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152075524","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the Nasdaq Composite(N","content":"<p>The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)&nbsp;to record levels. On Friday, the Nasdaq closed a strong week on a quiet note.</p><p><blockquote>近期股市表现良好，利好情绪送出<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）创历史新高。周五，纳斯达克平静地结束了强劲的一周。</blockquote></p><p> We're almost halfway through 2021, and investors are trying to get a read on how the second half of the year will go. Despite the current lull in corporate earnings releases, market participants will get three key readings from major companies next week.Nasdaqinvestors should treat these reports as must-read news that could move markets as we pass the six-month mark in the current year.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年即将过半，投资者正试图了解下半年的情况。尽管目前企业财报发布较为平静，但市场参与者下周将从大公司获得三项关键数据。纳斯达克投资者应将这些报告视为必读新闻，当我们突破六个月大关时，它们可能会改变市场今年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b></p><p><blockquote><b>床浴及其他</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BBBY)&nbsp;will report its fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday morning, June 30. Thehome furnishings stock&nbsp;has gotten a lot of attention both because of its turnaround efforts and because of its relatively new status as a meme stock followed by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote><b>床浴及其他</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：BBBY）将于 6 月 30 日星期三上午公布第一财季业绩。家居股受到了很多关注，这既是因为它的扭亏为盈，也是因为它作为一只受到个人投资者追捧的模因股的相对较新的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/417e33a9c1d841f220a2b37d2e368a64\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond has struggled over the past several years as it fought to come up with a digital strategy to fend off competition from e-commerce giants. Many saw the business as ultimately doomed, and the stock got substantial short interest among investors as a result. Yet activist investors stepped in and aimed to concentrate on the company's most lucrative business opportunities, and now, some shareholders are optimistic about Bed Bath &amp; Beyond's ability to cash in on the reopening economy.</p><p><blockquote>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 在过去几年中一直在苦苦挣扎，努力制定数字战略来抵御来自电子商务巨头的竞争。许多人认为该业务最终注定要失败，因此投资者对该股票产生了大量空头兴趣。然而，激进投资者介入，旨在专注于该公司最有利可图的商业机会，现在，一些股东对 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 从重新开放的经济中获利的能力持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have high hopes for the coming report, expecting Bed Bath &amp; Beyond to return to profitability and produce impressive revenue growth of around 35%. After the gains the share price has seen in the past week, anything short of those lofty aspirations could cause an abrupt reversal for the meme stock's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对即将发布的报告寄予厚望，预计 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 将恢复盈利，并实现约 35% 的令人印象深刻的收入增长。在过去一周股价上涨之后，任何达不到这些崇高愿望的事情都可能导致模因股票的前景突然逆转。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Micron Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美光科技</b></blockquote></p><p> Chipmaker&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ:MU)&nbsp;weighs in with its fiscal third-quarter report on Wednesday afternoon. The company has taken full advantage of huge rises in demand for memory chips and other products, but investors have seemed increasingly nervous abouthow long Micron's demand will lastgiven the notoriously cyclical nature of the semiconductor chip industry.</p><p><blockquote>芯片制造商<b>美光科技</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：MU）周三下午发布第三财季报告。该公司充分利用了存储芯片和其他产品需求的大幅增长，但鉴于半导体芯片行业臭名昭著的周期性，投资者似乎越来越担心美光的需求会持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, few investors have any doubts about the strength of the just-ended quarter. Most of those following the stock expect earnings to double year over year, with revenue climbing at a faster than 35% pace. Many see that growth continuing well into next year. The consensus forecast for fiscal 2022 earnings puts a forward multiple of just 8 on Micron's share price.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，很少有投资者对刚刚结束的季度的实力有任何怀疑。大多数关注该股的人预计盈利将同比翻一番，收入增长速度将超过 35%。许多人认为这种增长将持续到明年。对 2022 财年盈利的普遍预测认为，美光的股价远期倍数仅为 8。</blockquote></p><p> The key question is how quickly Micron and its competitors will ramp up production capacity in order to meet higher demand. In the past, upward cycles in the chip market ended because companies like Micron boost production too far, creating gluts of chips and sending prices plunging. That in turn crushes profits, making low price-to-earnings ratios into value traps for the unwary. All eyes will be on Micron's report to see not only how things have gone, but also what the future holds for it and its rivals.</p><p><blockquote>关键问题是美光及其竞争对手将以多快的速度提高产能，以满足更高的需求。过去，芯片市场的上升周期结束是因为美光等公司过度提高产量，造成芯片过剩并导致价格暴跌。这反过来又会压低利润，使低市盈率成为粗心者的价值陷阱。所有人的目光都将聚焦在美光的报告上，不仅要看看事情进展如何，还要看看它及其竞争对手的未来会怎样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Walgreens Boots Alliance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔格林博姿联盟</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly,<b>Walgreen Boots Alliance</b>(NASDAQ:WBA)&nbsp;will offer its latest look at earnings on Thursday, July 1. Investors are expecting a mixed picture from the giant drugstore chain, with revenue likely slipping a bit from year-ago levels but profits jumping by nearly 65%.</p><p><blockquote>最后，<b>沃尔格林博姿联盟</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：WBA）将于 7 月 1 日星期四发布最新财报。投资者预计这家大型连锁药店的前景好坏参半，收入可能会比去年同期略有下滑，但利润跃升近 65%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will watch&nbsp;how Walgreens has done&nbsp;in administering COVID-19 vaccines, which has been a one-time boon for the industry generally. However, of greater long-term concern will be any comments on whether the possibility of e-commerce giant&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;challenging Walgreens' business more directly could cause problems.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将关注沃尔格林在接种 COVID-19 疫苗方面的表现，这对整个行业来说是一次性的福音。然而，更长期的关注将是任何关于电子商务巨头是否可能的评论<b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）更直接地挑战沃尔格林的业务可能会导致问题。</blockquote></p><p> Walgreens will have to have a strategy for how to build on momentum from COVID-related impacts. If the drugstore chain can't deliver, then the relatively stagnant performance of its stock could continue further into 2021 and potentially beyond.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔格林必须制定一个战略，说明如何从与新冠病毒相关的影响中获得动力。如果这家连锁药店无法交付，那么其股票相对停滞的表现可能会持续到 2021 年，甚至可能更久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Watch out for surprises</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小心惊喜</b></blockquote></p><p> News that's close to what investors expect likely won't make a big difference for any of these three stocks or the stock market more broadly. But if any of these companies has a big surprise, it could turn out to be what moves the Nasdaq heading into the July 4 holiday weekend.</p><p><blockquote>接近投资者预期的消息可能不会对这三只股票或更广泛的股市产生太大影响。但如果这些公司中的任何一家有大惊喜，它可能会成为推动纳斯达克进入 7 月 4 日假期周末的原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Miss What 3 Nasdaq Stocks Do Next Week<blockquote>不要错过 3 只纳斯达克股票下周的表现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Miss What 3 Nasdaq Stocks Do Next Week<blockquote>不要错过 3 只纳斯达克股票下周的表现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-26 08:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)&nbsp;to record levels. On Friday, the Nasdaq closed a strong week on a quiet note.</p><p><blockquote>近期股市表现良好，利好情绪送出<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）创历史新高。周五，纳斯达克平静地结束了强劲的一周。</blockquote></p><p> We're almost halfway through 2021, and investors are trying to get a read on how the second half of the year will go. Despite the current lull in corporate earnings releases, market participants will get three key readings from major companies next week.Nasdaqinvestors should treat these reports as must-read news that could move markets as we pass the six-month mark in the current year.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年即将过半，投资者正试图了解下半年的情况。尽管目前企业财报发布较为平静，但市场参与者下周将从大公司获得三项关键数据。纳斯达克投资者应将这些报告视为必读新闻，当我们突破六个月大关时，它们可能会改变市场今年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b></p><p><blockquote><b>床浴及其他</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BBBY)&nbsp;will report its fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday morning, June 30. Thehome furnishings stock&nbsp;has gotten a lot of attention both because of its turnaround efforts and because of its relatively new status as a meme stock followed by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote><b>床浴及其他</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：BBBY）将于 6 月 30 日星期三上午公布第一财季业绩。家居股受到了很多关注，这既是因为它的扭亏为盈，也是因为它作为一只受到个人投资者追捧的模因股的相对较新的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/417e33a9c1d841f220a2b37d2e368a64\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond has struggled over the past several years as it fought to come up with a digital strategy to fend off competition from e-commerce giants. Many saw the business as ultimately doomed, and the stock got substantial short interest among investors as a result. Yet activist investors stepped in and aimed to concentrate on the company's most lucrative business opportunities, and now, some shareholders are optimistic about Bed Bath &amp; Beyond's ability to cash in on the reopening economy.</p><p><blockquote>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 在过去几年中一直在苦苦挣扎，努力制定数字战略来抵御来自电子商务巨头的竞争。许多人认为该业务最终注定要失败，因此投资者对该股票产生了大量空头兴趣。然而，激进投资者介入，旨在专注于该公司最有利可图的商业机会，现在，一些股东对 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 从重新开放的经济中获利的能力持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have high hopes for the coming report, expecting Bed Bath &amp; Beyond to return to profitability and produce impressive revenue growth of around 35%. After the gains the share price has seen in the past week, anything short of those lofty aspirations could cause an abrupt reversal for the meme stock's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对即将发布的报告寄予厚望，预计 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 将恢复盈利，并实现约 35% 的令人印象深刻的收入增长。在过去一周股价上涨之后，任何达不到这些崇高愿望的事情都可能导致模因股票的前景突然逆转。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Micron Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美光科技</b></blockquote></p><p> Chipmaker&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ:MU)&nbsp;weighs in with its fiscal third-quarter report on Wednesday afternoon. The company has taken full advantage of huge rises in demand for memory chips and other products, but investors have seemed increasingly nervous abouthow long Micron's demand will lastgiven the notoriously cyclical nature of the semiconductor chip industry.</p><p><blockquote>芯片制造商<b>美光科技</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：MU）周三下午发布第三财季报告。该公司充分利用了存储芯片和其他产品需求的大幅增长，但鉴于半导体芯片行业臭名昭著的周期性，投资者似乎越来越担心美光的需求会持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, few investors have any doubts about the strength of the just-ended quarter. Most of those following the stock expect earnings to double year over year, with revenue climbing at a faster than 35% pace. Many see that growth continuing well into next year. The consensus forecast for fiscal 2022 earnings puts a forward multiple of just 8 on Micron's share price.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，很少有投资者对刚刚结束的季度的实力有任何怀疑。大多数关注该股的人预计盈利将同比翻一番，收入增长速度将超过 35%。许多人认为这种增长将持续到明年。对 2022 财年盈利的普遍预测认为，美光的股价远期倍数仅为 8。</blockquote></p><p> The key question is how quickly Micron and its competitors will ramp up production capacity in order to meet higher demand. In the past, upward cycles in the chip market ended because companies like Micron boost production too far, creating gluts of chips and sending prices plunging. That in turn crushes profits, making low price-to-earnings ratios into value traps for the unwary. All eyes will be on Micron's report to see not only how things have gone, but also what the future holds for it and its rivals.</p><p><blockquote>关键问题是美光及其竞争对手将以多快的速度提高产能，以满足更高的需求。过去，芯片市场的上升周期结束是因为美光等公司过度提高产量，造成芯片过剩并导致价格暴跌。这反过来又会压低利润，使低市盈率成为粗心者的价值陷阱。所有人的目光都将聚焦在美光的报告上，不仅要看看事情进展如何，还要看看它及其竞争对手的未来会怎样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Walgreens Boots Alliance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔格林博姿联盟</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly,<b>Walgreen Boots Alliance</b>(NASDAQ:WBA)&nbsp;will offer its latest look at earnings on Thursday, July 1. Investors are expecting a mixed picture from the giant drugstore chain, with revenue likely slipping a bit from year-ago levels but profits jumping by nearly 65%.</p><p><blockquote>最后，<b>沃尔格林博姿联盟</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：WBA）将于 7 月 1 日星期四发布最新财报。投资者预计这家大型连锁药店的前景好坏参半，收入可能会比去年同期略有下滑，但利润跃升近 65%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will watch&nbsp;how Walgreens has done&nbsp;in administering COVID-19 vaccines, which has been a one-time boon for the industry generally. However, of greater long-term concern will be any comments on whether the possibility of e-commerce giant&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;challenging Walgreens' business more directly could cause problems.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将关注沃尔格林在接种 COVID-19 疫苗方面的表现，这对整个行业来说是一次性的福音。然而，更长期的关注将是任何关于电子商务巨头是否可能的评论<b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）更直接地挑战沃尔格林的业务可能会导致问题。</blockquote></p><p> Walgreens will have to have a strategy for how to build on momentum from COVID-related impacts. If the drugstore chain can't deliver, then the relatively stagnant performance of its stock could continue further into 2021 and potentially beyond.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔格林必须制定一个战略，说明如何从与新冠病毒相关的影响中获得动力。如果这家连锁药店无法交付，那么其股票相对停滞的表现可能会持续到 2021 年，甚至可能更久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Watch out for surprises</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小心惊喜</b></blockquote></p><p> News that's close to what investors expect likely won't make a big difference for any of these three stocks or the stock market more broadly. But if any of these companies has a big surprise, it could turn out to be what moves the Nasdaq heading into the July 4 holiday weekend.</p><p><blockquote>接近投资者预期的消息可能不会对这三只股票或更广泛的股市产生太大影响。但如果这些公司中的任何一家有大惊喜，它可能会成为推动纳斯达克进入 7 月 4 日假期周末的原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/25/dont-miss-what-3-nasdaq-stocks-do-next-week/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/25/dont-miss-what-3-nasdaq-stocks-do-next-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152075524","content_text":"The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the Nasdaq Composite(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) to record levels. On Friday, the Nasdaq closed a strong week on a quiet note.\nWe're almost halfway through 2021, and investors are trying to get a read on how the second half of the year will go. Despite the current lull in corporate earnings releases, market participants will get three key readings from major companies next week.Nasdaqinvestors should treat these reports as must-read news that could move markets as we pass the six-month mark in the current year.\nBed Bath & Beyond\nBed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ:BBBY) will report its fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday morning, June 30. Thehome furnishings stock has gotten a lot of attention both because of its turnaround efforts and because of its relatively new status as a meme stock followed by individual investors.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nBed Bath & Beyond has struggled over the past several years as it fought to come up with a digital strategy to fend off competition from e-commerce giants. Many saw the business as ultimately doomed, and the stock got substantial short interest among investors as a result. Yet activist investors stepped in and aimed to concentrate on the company's most lucrative business opportunities, and now, some shareholders are optimistic about Bed Bath & Beyond's ability to cash in on the reopening economy.\nInvestors have high hopes for the coming report, expecting Bed Bath & Beyond to return to profitability and produce impressive revenue growth of around 35%. After the gains the share price has seen in the past week, anything short of those lofty aspirations could cause an abrupt reversal for the meme stock's prospects.\nMicron Technology\nChipmaker Micron Technology(NASDAQ:MU) weighs in with its fiscal third-quarter report on Wednesday afternoon. The company has taken full advantage of huge rises in demand for memory chips and other products, but investors have seemed increasingly nervous abouthow long Micron's demand will lastgiven the notoriously cyclical nature of the semiconductor chip industry.\nTo be clear, few investors have any doubts about the strength of the just-ended quarter. Most of those following the stock expect earnings to double year over year, with revenue climbing at a faster than 35% pace. Many see that growth continuing well into next year. The consensus forecast for fiscal 2022 earnings puts a forward multiple of just 8 on Micron's share price.\nThe key question is how quickly Micron and its competitors will ramp up production capacity in order to meet higher demand. In the past, upward cycles in the chip market ended because companies like Micron boost production too far, creating gluts of chips and sending prices plunging. That in turn crushes profits, making low price-to-earnings ratios into value traps for the unwary. All eyes will be on Micron's report to see not only how things have gone, but also what the future holds for it and its rivals.\nWalgreens Boots Alliance\nLastly,Walgreen Boots Alliance(NASDAQ:WBA) will offer its latest look at earnings on Thursday, July 1. Investors are expecting a mixed picture from the giant drugstore chain, with revenue likely slipping a bit from year-ago levels but profits jumping by nearly 65%.\nInvestors will watch how Walgreens has done in administering COVID-19 vaccines, which has been a one-time boon for the industry generally. However, of greater long-term concern will be any comments on whether the possibility of e-commerce giant Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) challenging Walgreens' business more directly could cause problems.\nWalgreens will have to have a strategy for how to build on momentum from COVID-related impacts. If the drugstore chain can't deliver, then the relatively stagnant performance of its stock could continue further into 2021 and potentially beyond.\nWatch out for surprises\nNews that's close to what investors expect likely won't make a big difference for any of these three stocks or the stock market more broadly. 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