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2021-07-27

Interesting read.

Palantir: Prepare To Be Disappointed<blockquote>Palantir：做好失望的准备</blockquote>

2021-06-28

[Happy]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-27

[Serious]

Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>

2021-06-25

[Serious]

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2021-06-24

[Serious]

Singapore's Keppel, Sembcorp Marine request trading halts<blockquote>新加坡吉宝、胜科海事要求暂停交易</blockquote>

2021-06-20

[Serious]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-19

[Cry]

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2021-06-17

[Serious]

Amazon Stock Has Underperformed. Two Analysts Advise Buying Now.<blockquote>亚马逊股票表现不佳。两位分析师建议立即买入。</blockquote>

2021-06-16

[Serious]

Michael "Big Short" Burry: This Is The Greatest Bubble Of All Time In All Things "By Two Orders Of Magnitude"<blockquote>“大空头”迈克尔·伯里：这是有史以来最大的泡沫，“高出两个数量级”</blockquote>

2021-06-15

[Serious]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-14

[Serious]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-14

[Serious]

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2021-06-13

Interesting read.

Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>

2021-05-23

[Serious]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-22

[Serious]

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2021-05-20

[Serious]

Why Is the Stock Market Falling? Here Are 3 Reasons.<blockquote>股市为何下跌？这里有三个原因。</blockquote>

2021-05-15

[Sad]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-14

[Serious]

The Last Two Times This Hit, Stocks Dropped 20% and 50%, Respectively<blockquote>上两次股市分别下跌了20%和50%</blockquote>

2021-05-12

$Coca-Cola(KO)$[Great]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-11

[Spurting]

抱歉，原内容已删除

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read.","listText":"Interesting read.","text":"Interesting read.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809232459","repostId":"1139478455","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1139478455","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627370605,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139478455?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 15:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Prepare To Be Disappointed<blockquote>Palantir：做好失望的准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139478455","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWe continue to believe that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We continue to believe that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.</li>  <li>Our analysis shows that Palantir’s fair value is $8.22 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.</li>  <li>The dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of Palantir’s stock anytime soon.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce2494cb75075c64622ebd6b351e43d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1155\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们仍然认为Palantir的上涨空间似乎有限，其未来的增长已经被消化。</li><li>我们的分析显示，Palantir的公允价值为每股8.22美元，较当前市场价格下跌超过60%。</li><li>稀释风险和持续的抛售压力可能会很快阻止Palantir股票的升值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>凯文·迪奇/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir (PLTR) has been underperforming the market in recent weeks and we believe that its stock still has more room to fall. Our analysis shows that Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current levels and several issues are likely going to prevent its stock from appreciating further anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it’s better to avoid Palantir at the current price, as its upside appears to be limited.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir（PLTR）最近几周的表现一直逊于市场，我们认为其股价仍有更大的下跌空间。我们的分析表明，Palantir在目前的水平上被严重高估，一些问题可能会阻止其股票在短期内进一步升值。因此，我们仍然认为最好以当前价格避开Palantir，因为其上涨空间似乎有限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There Are Several Red Flags, Which You Shouldn’t Ignore</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有几个危险信号，你不应该忽视</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir specializes in creating custom software solutions for collecting data for its clients, who are mostly government agencies and public companies. While some might think that Palantir is a young company with lots of potential, the reality is that it’s not a startup, as it has been in the business for almost two decades already, and since that time it has managed to add less than 200 customers. As a result, the company is exposed to a limited pool of organizations, who generate most of the revenues. This is mostly because Palantir doesn’t have a scalable business. The value of the company’s average contract ranges from $5 million to $6 million, which prevents small and medium businesses from using its services. While Palantir tries to tackle this issue by offering its Foundry platform for the commercial sector at attractive terms, it’s still too soon to tell whether it will improve its affordability to most of the third parties and have any major impact on its financials in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir专门为其客户创建用于收集数据的定制软件解决方案，这些客户大多是政府机构和上市公司。虽然有些人可能认为Palantir是一家具有巨大潜力的年轻公司，但事实是它并不是一家初创公司，因为它已经经营了近二十年，从那时起，它已经设法增加了不到200个客户。因此，该公司接触到的组织数量有限，而这些组织创造了大部分收入。这主要是因为Palantir没有可扩展的业务。该公司的平均合同价值从500万美元到600万美元不等，这使得中小型企业无法使用其服务。虽然Palantir试图通过以有吸引力的条款为商业领域提供代工平台来解决这一问题，但现在判断它是否会提高大多数第三方的承受能力并从长远来看对其财务状况产生任何重大影响还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, while bulls might want to deny this, but Palantir operates like a consulting company. The company has a special position of a forward-deployed engineer, who analyzes different processes of potential clients and then explains how Palantir’s software could help them improve their operations. Considering this, it’s safe to say that Palantir doesn’t have a unique business model since its whole proposition is that it can analyze the available data better than others. However, nothing stops new entrants from entering the field and offering similar solutions, and nothing stops organizations' internal IT departments from developing better tools to analyze all of the processes at a more affordable price.</p><p><blockquote>此外，虽然多头可能想否认这一点，但Palantir的运营方式就像一家咨询公司。该公司有一个特殊的职位，即前沿部署工程师，他分析潜在客户的不同流程，然后解释Palantir的软件如何帮助他们改善运营。考虑到这一点，可以肯定地说Palantir没有独特的商业模式，因为它的整个主张是它可以比其他人更好地分析可用数据。然而，没有什么能阻止新进入者进入该领域并提供类似的解决方案，也没有什么能阻止组织的内部IT部门开发更好的工具，以更实惠的价格分析所有流程。</blockquote></p><p> Another downside of Palantir is that despite the increase in margins and gross profit in recent quarters, it never made a profit in its history after being so long in the business. Its operating loss has onlywidenedin recent years from -$600 million in 2018 to -$1.17 billion in 2020, to -$1.22 billion in the last twelve months. This is due to the excessive stock-based compensation program that results in increased expenses and massive dilution, which is something that a lot of bulls tend to ignore. Let’s not forget that the company’s expenses relating to the SBC program increased by around 257% year over year last quarter and were $193 million. At the same time, Palantir already has 1.8 billion shares outstanding, an increase from 1.52 billion shares, which were outstanding at the end of last year. The problem is that the excessive SBC program will continue to be a major issue for the company’s investors since there are still 477 million optionsoutstanding, which will dilute the current shareholders by more than 20% if fully exercised.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的另一个缺点是，尽管最近几个季度利润率和毛利润有所增加，但在从事该业务这么长时间后，它在历史上从未盈利过。近年来，其运营亏损仅从2018年的-6亿美元扩大到2020年的-11.7亿美元，并在过去12个月扩大到-12.2亿美元。这是由于过度的股票薪酬计划导致费用增加和大规模稀释，这是许多多头往往忽视的。我们不要忘记，该公司上季度与SBC计划相关的费用同比增长了约257%，达到1.93亿美元。与此同时，Palantir已拥有18亿股流通股，较去年年底的15.2亿股有所增加。问题是，过度的SBC计划将继续成为公司投资者的一个主要问题，因为仍有4.77亿份期权尚未行使，如果完全行使，将使现有股东稀释20%以上。</blockquote></p><p> For that reason, we continue to believe that Palantir’s stock will continue to be an unattractive investment and it’ll likely continue to underperform the market. It’s already down ~15% since our bearisharticlewas published a month ago and we believe that there’s more room for a depreciation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们仍然认为Palantir的股票将继续是一项没有吸引力的投资，并且可能会继续跑输市场。自一个月前我们的看跌文章发表以来，它已经下跌了约15%，我们认为还有更大的贬值空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/facca499bd702a4193cac4eabbe4a9a2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another reason to be bearish about Palantir is due to the fact that there’s an extreme selling pressure, which is created by the company’s insiders and its CEO in particular, who are constantly dumping their shares on an open market. In July alone insiderssoldin total $63 million worth of Palantir shares, which is only $31 million slightly less than what they sold in Q1 when the lockup period expired. Considering this and the fact that they still have ~10% ownership stake in the company, it’s safe to assume they’ll continue to sell their shares and create an even greater selling pressure, which is likely going to prevent the stock from significantly appreciating from the current levels.</p><p><blockquote>看跌Palantir的另一个原因是存在巨大的抛售压力，这是由公司内部人士，尤其是首席执行官造成的，他们不断在公开市场上抛售股票。仅在7月份，内部人士就出售了总价值6300万美元的Palantir股票，仅比第一季度禁售期到期时出售的股票略少3100万美元。考虑到这一点以及他们仍持有该公司约10%的股权这一事实，可以肯定的是，他们将继续出售股票并造成更大的抛售压力，这可能会阻止该股大幅升值从当前水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> We created a discounted cash flow model to find Palantir’s fair value. The weighted average cost of capital in our model is 6%, while the terminal growth rate is 3%.</p><p><blockquote>我们创建了一个贴现现金流模型来查找Palantir的公允价值。我们模型中的加权平均资本成本为6%，而终端增长率为3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb588ed877784db58cfe10b7d49d6dae\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Capital IQ, Own estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Capital IQ，自己的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After doing all the necessary calculations, our DCF model showed that Palantir’s fair value is $8.47 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.</p><p><blockquote>在进行所有必要的计算后，我们的DCF模型显示Palantir的公允价值为每股8.47美元，较当前市场价格下跌超过60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9988abd16861dfad80d5febd22b2c1fb\" tg-width=\"404\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Own estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：自己的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For relative valuation, we compared Palantir to eight other companies from the tech industry and the SaaS niche in particular. By looking at the numbers below, we could safely say that Palantir is extremely overvalued to others, especially since its EBITDA margin of -72.8% is the worst among its peers, and at a market cap of ~$40 billion, its stock is overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>对于相对估值，我们将Palantir与来自科技行业，特别是SaaS利基市场的其他八家公司进行了比较。通过查看下面的数字，我们可以有把握地说，Palantir对其他人来说被严重高估，特别是因为其EBITDA利润率为-72.8%，是同行中最差的，而且市值约为400亿美元，其股票定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70de8f9f7b52ae29d77492ed21083982\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By consolidating the DCF model and the relative valuation method and giving the former 75% weight in the final analysis, while giving the latter 25$ weight in the final analysis, we concluded that Palantir’s final fair value is $8.22 per share, which is significantly below its current market price of ~$22 per share.</p><p><blockquote>通过合并DCF模型和相对估值法，并在最终分析中给予前者75%的权重，而在最终分析中给予后者25美元的权重，我们得出的结论是，Palantir的最终公允价值为每股8.22美元，明显低于其目前的市场价格约为每股22美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05db90bdfb26c691331c9cdede01a87b\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Own estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：自己的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite its advanced data software solutions, Palantir continues to be an unattractive investment in our opinion and its stock is unlikely to move significantly higher anytime soon. The company doesn’t have a unique proposition at an affordable price on the market and there’s every reason to believe that its expenses will continue to increase in the following years due to the higher inflation and increased competition, while its bottom line will continue to suffer. As a result, despite signing new multi-million contracts from time to time, it’s still hard to justify its ~$40 billion market cap. Considering this, we strongly believe that Palantir is not a value investment at this stage, and not a growth play as well since the dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of its stock anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Palantir拥有先进的数据软件解决方案，但我们认为Palantir仍然是一项没有吸引力的投资，其股价不太可能很快大幅走高。该公司在市场上没有一个价格实惠的独特主张，而且有充分的理由相信，由于通胀上升和竞争加剧，其费用在未来几年将继续增加，而其利润将继续下降。遭受。因此，尽管不时签署数百万美元的新合同，但仍然很难证明其约400亿美元的市值是合理的。考虑到这一点，我们坚信Palantir现阶段不是价值投资，也不是成长型投资，因为稀释风险和持续的抛售压力可能会很快阻止其股票升值。</blockquote></p><p> While we don’t expect the stock to depreciate to its fair value of $8.22 per share in the foreseeable future, a decent decline from the current market price is more than possible, especially since the company already trades at 28 times its revenues and is considered to be overvalued. For that reason, we stick to our opinion that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们预计该股在可预见的未来不会贬值至每股8.22美元的公允价值，但较当前市场价格大幅下跌的可能性很大，特别是因为该公司的交易价格已经是其收入的28倍，并且被认为被高估了。因此，我们坚持认为Palantir的上涨空间似乎有限，其未来增长已经被消化。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Prepare To Be Disappointed<blockquote>Palantir：做好失望的准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Prepare To Be Disappointed<blockquote>Palantir：做好失望的准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 15:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We continue to believe that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.</li>  <li>Our analysis shows that Palantir’s fair value is $8.22 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.</li>  <li>The dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of Palantir’s stock anytime soon.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce2494cb75075c64622ebd6b351e43d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1155\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们仍然认为Palantir的上涨空间似乎有限，其未来的增长已经被消化。</li><li>我们的分析显示，Palantir的公允价值为每股8.22美元，较当前市场价格下跌超过60%。</li><li>稀释风险和持续的抛售压力可能会很快阻止Palantir股票的升值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>凯文·迪奇/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir (PLTR) has been underperforming the market in recent weeks and we believe that its stock still has more room to fall. Our analysis shows that Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current levels and several issues are likely going to prevent its stock from appreciating further anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it’s better to avoid Palantir at the current price, as its upside appears to be limited.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir（PLTR）最近几周的表现一直逊于市场，我们认为其股价仍有更大的下跌空间。我们的分析表明，Palantir在目前的水平上被严重高估，一些问题可能会阻止其股票在短期内进一步升值。因此，我们仍然认为最好以当前价格避开Palantir，因为其上涨空间似乎有限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There Are Several Red Flags, Which You Shouldn’t Ignore</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有几个危险信号，你不应该忽视</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir specializes in creating custom software solutions for collecting data for its clients, who are mostly government agencies and public companies. While some might think that Palantir is a young company with lots of potential, the reality is that it’s not a startup, as it has been in the business for almost two decades already, and since that time it has managed to add less than 200 customers. As a result, the company is exposed to a limited pool of organizations, who generate most of the revenues. This is mostly because Palantir doesn’t have a scalable business. The value of the company’s average contract ranges from $5 million to $6 million, which prevents small and medium businesses from using its services. While Palantir tries to tackle this issue by offering its Foundry platform for the commercial sector at attractive terms, it’s still too soon to tell whether it will improve its affordability to most of the third parties and have any major impact on its financials in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir专门为其客户创建用于收集数据的定制软件解决方案，这些客户大多是政府机构和上市公司。虽然有些人可能认为Palantir是一家具有巨大潜力的年轻公司，但事实是它并不是一家初创公司，因为它已经经营了近二十年，从那时起，它已经设法增加了不到200个客户。因此，该公司接触到的组织数量有限，而这些组织创造了大部分收入。这主要是因为Palantir没有可扩展的业务。该公司的平均合同价值从500万美元到600万美元不等，这使得中小型企业无法使用其服务。虽然Palantir试图通过以有吸引力的条款为商业领域提供代工平台来解决这一问题，但现在判断它是否会提高大多数第三方的承受能力并从长远来看对其财务状况产生任何重大影响还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, while bulls might want to deny this, but Palantir operates like a consulting company. The company has a special position of a forward-deployed engineer, who analyzes different processes of potential clients and then explains how Palantir’s software could help them improve their operations. Considering this, it’s safe to say that Palantir doesn’t have a unique business model since its whole proposition is that it can analyze the available data better than others. However, nothing stops new entrants from entering the field and offering similar solutions, and nothing stops organizations' internal IT departments from developing better tools to analyze all of the processes at a more affordable price.</p><p><blockquote>此外，虽然多头可能想否认这一点，但Palantir的运营方式就像一家咨询公司。该公司有一个特殊的职位，即前沿部署工程师，他分析潜在客户的不同流程，然后解释Palantir的软件如何帮助他们改善运营。考虑到这一点，可以肯定地说Palantir没有独特的商业模式，因为它的整个主张是它可以比其他人更好地分析可用数据。然而，没有什么能阻止新进入者进入该领域并提供类似的解决方案，也没有什么能阻止组织的内部IT部门开发更好的工具，以更实惠的价格分析所有流程。</blockquote></p><p> Another downside of Palantir is that despite the increase in margins and gross profit in recent quarters, it never made a profit in its history after being so long in the business. Its operating loss has onlywidenedin recent years from -$600 million in 2018 to -$1.17 billion in 2020, to -$1.22 billion in the last twelve months. This is due to the excessive stock-based compensation program that results in increased expenses and massive dilution, which is something that a lot of bulls tend to ignore. Let’s not forget that the company’s expenses relating to the SBC program increased by around 257% year over year last quarter and were $193 million. At the same time, Palantir already has 1.8 billion shares outstanding, an increase from 1.52 billion shares, which were outstanding at the end of last year. The problem is that the excessive SBC program will continue to be a major issue for the company’s investors since there are still 477 million optionsoutstanding, which will dilute the current shareholders by more than 20% if fully exercised.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的另一个缺点是，尽管最近几个季度利润率和毛利润有所增加，但在从事该业务这么长时间后，它在历史上从未盈利过。近年来，其运营亏损仅从2018年的-6亿美元扩大到2020年的-11.7亿美元，并在过去12个月扩大到-12.2亿美元。这是由于过度的股票薪酬计划导致费用增加和大规模稀释，这是许多多头往往忽视的。我们不要忘记，该公司上季度与SBC计划相关的费用同比增长了约257%，达到1.93亿美元。与此同时，Palantir已拥有18亿股流通股，较去年年底的15.2亿股有所增加。问题是，过度的SBC计划将继续成为公司投资者的一个主要问题，因为仍有4.77亿份期权尚未行使，如果完全行使，将使现有股东稀释20%以上。</blockquote></p><p> For that reason, we continue to believe that Palantir’s stock will continue to be an unattractive investment and it’ll likely continue to underperform the market. It’s already down ~15% since our bearisharticlewas published a month ago and we believe that there’s more room for a depreciation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们仍然认为Palantir的股票将继续是一项没有吸引力的投资，并且可能会继续跑输市场。自一个月前我们的看跌文章发表以来，它已经下跌了约15%，我们认为还有更大的贬值空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/facca499bd702a4193cac4eabbe4a9a2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another reason to be bearish about Palantir is due to the fact that there’s an extreme selling pressure, which is created by the company’s insiders and its CEO in particular, who are constantly dumping their shares on an open market. In July alone insiderssoldin total $63 million worth of Palantir shares, which is only $31 million slightly less than what they sold in Q1 when the lockup period expired. Considering this and the fact that they still have ~10% ownership stake in the company, it’s safe to assume they’ll continue to sell their shares and create an even greater selling pressure, which is likely going to prevent the stock from significantly appreciating from the current levels.</p><p><blockquote>看跌Palantir的另一个原因是存在巨大的抛售压力，这是由公司内部人士，尤其是首席执行官造成的，他们不断在公开市场上抛售股票。仅在7月份，内部人士就出售了总价值6300万美元的Palantir股票，仅比第一季度禁售期到期时出售的股票略少3100万美元。考虑到这一点以及他们仍持有该公司约10%的股权这一事实，可以肯定的是，他们将继续出售股票并造成更大的抛售压力，这可能会阻止该股大幅升值从当前水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> We created a discounted cash flow model to find Palantir’s fair value. The weighted average cost of capital in our model is 6%, while the terminal growth rate is 3%.</p><p><blockquote>我们创建了一个贴现现金流模型来查找Palantir的公允价值。我们模型中的加权平均资本成本为6%，而终端增长率为3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb588ed877784db58cfe10b7d49d6dae\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Capital IQ, Own estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Capital IQ，自己的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After doing all the necessary calculations, our DCF model showed that Palantir’s fair value is $8.47 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.</p><p><blockquote>在进行所有必要的计算后，我们的DCF模型显示Palantir的公允价值为每股8.47美元，较当前市场价格下跌超过60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9988abd16861dfad80d5febd22b2c1fb\" tg-width=\"404\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Own estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：自己的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For relative valuation, we compared Palantir to eight other companies from the tech industry and the SaaS niche in particular. By looking at the numbers below, we could safely say that Palantir is extremely overvalued to others, especially since its EBITDA margin of -72.8% is the worst among its peers, and at a market cap of ~$40 billion, its stock is overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>对于相对估值，我们将Palantir与来自科技行业，特别是SaaS利基市场的其他八家公司进行了比较。通过查看下面的数字，我们可以有把握地说，Palantir对其他人来说被严重高估，特别是因为其EBITDA利润率为-72.8%，是同行中最差的，而且市值约为400亿美元，其股票定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70de8f9f7b52ae29d77492ed21083982\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By consolidating the DCF model and the relative valuation method and giving the former 75% weight in the final analysis, while giving the latter 25$ weight in the final analysis, we concluded that Palantir’s final fair value is $8.22 per share, which is significantly below its current market price of ~$22 per share.</p><p><blockquote>通过合并DCF模型和相对估值法，并在最终分析中给予前者75%的权重，而在最终分析中给予后者25美元的权重，我们得出的结论是，Palantir的最终公允价值为每股8.22美元，明显低于其目前的市场价格约为每股22美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05db90bdfb26c691331c9cdede01a87b\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Own estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：自己的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite its advanced data software solutions, Palantir continues to be an unattractive investment in our opinion and its stock is unlikely to move significantly higher anytime soon. The company doesn’t have a unique proposition at an affordable price on the market and there’s every reason to believe that its expenses will continue to increase in the following years due to the higher inflation and increased competition, while its bottom line will continue to suffer. As a result, despite signing new multi-million contracts from time to time, it’s still hard to justify its ~$40 billion market cap. Considering this, we strongly believe that Palantir is not a value investment at this stage, and not a growth play as well since the dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of its stock anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Palantir拥有先进的数据软件解决方案，但我们认为Palantir仍然是一项没有吸引力的投资，其股价不太可能很快大幅走高。该公司在市场上没有一个价格实惠的独特主张，而且有充分的理由相信，由于通胀上升和竞争加剧，其费用在未来几年将继续增加，而其利润将继续下降。遭受。因此，尽管不时签署数百万美元的新合同，但仍然很难证明其约400亿美元的市值是合理的。考虑到这一点，我们坚信Palantir现阶段不是价值投资，也不是成长型投资，因为稀释风险和持续的抛售压力可能会很快阻止其股票升值。</blockquote></p><p> While we don’t expect the stock to depreciate to its fair value of $8.22 per share in the foreseeable future, a decent decline from the current market price is more than possible, especially since the company already trades at 28 times its revenues and is considered to be overvalued. For that reason, we stick to our opinion that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们预计该股在可预见的未来不会贬值至每股8.22美元的公允价值，但较当前市场价格大幅下跌的可能性很大，特别是因为该公司的交易价格已经是其收入的28倍，并且被认为被高估了。因此，我们坚持认为Palantir的上涨空间似乎有限，其未来增长已经被消化。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441334-palantir-prepare-to-be-disappointed\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441334-palantir-prepare-to-be-disappointed","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139478455","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe continue to believe that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.\nOur analysis shows that Palantir’s fair value is $8.22 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.\nThe dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of Palantir’s stock anytime soon.\n\nKevin Dietsch/Getty Images News\nPalantir (PLTR) has been underperforming the market in recent weeks and we believe that its stock still has more room to fall. Our analysis shows that Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current levels and several issues are likely going to prevent its stock from appreciating further anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it’s better to avoid Palantir at the current price, as its upside appears to be limited.\nThere Are Several Red Flags, Which You Shouldn’t Ignore\nPalantir specializes in creating custom software solutions for collecting data for its clients, who are mostly government agencies and public companies. While some might think that Palantir is a young company with lots of potential, the reality is that it’s not a startup, as it has been in the business for almost two decades already, and since that time it has managed to add less than 200 customers. As a result, the company is exposed to a limited pool of organizations, who generate most of the revenues. This is mostly because Palantir doesn’t have a scalable business. The value of the company’s average contract ranges from $5 million to $6 million, which prevents small and medium businesses from using its services. While Palantir tries to tackle this issue by offering its Foundry platform for the commercial sector at attractive terms, it’s still too soon to tell whether it will improve its affordability to most of the third parties and have any major impact on its financials in the long run.\nIn addition, while bulls might want to deny this, but Palantir operates like a consulting company. The company has a special position of a forward-deployed engineer, who analyzes different processes of potential clients and then explains how Palantir’s software could help them improve their operations. Considering this, it’s safe to say that Palantir doesn’t have a unique business model since its whole proposition is that it can analyze the available data better than others. However, nothing stops new entrants from entering the field and offering similar solutions, and nothing stops organizations' internal IT departments from developing better tools to analyze all of the processes at a more affordable price.\nAnother downside of Palantir is that despite the increase in margins and gross profit in recent quarters, it never made a profit in its history after being so long in the business. Its operating loss has onlywidenedin recent years from -$600 million in 2018 to -$1.17 billion in 2020, to -$1.22 billion in the last twelve months. This is due to the excessive stock-based compensation program that results in increased expenses and massive dilution, which is something that a lot of bulls tend to ignore. Let’s not forget that the company’s expenses relating to the SBC program increased by around 257% year over year last quarter and were $193 million. At the same time, Palantir already has 1.8 billion shares outstanding, an increase from 1.52 billion shares, which were outstanding at the end of last year. The problem is that the excessive SBC program will continue to be a major issue for the company’s investors since there are still 477 million optionsoutstanding, which will dilute the current shareholders by more than 20% if fully exercised.\nFor that reason, we continue to believe that Palantir’s stock will continue to be an unattractive investment and it’ll likely continue to underperform the market. It’s already down ~15% since our bearisharticlewas published a month ago and we believe that there’s more room for a depreciation.\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nAnother reason to be bearish about Palantir is due to the fact that there’s an extreme selling pressure, which is created by the company’s insiders and its CEO in particular, who are constantly dumping their shares on an open market. In July alone insiderssoldin total $63 million worth of Palantir shares, which is only $31 million slightly less than what they sold in Q1 when the lockup period expired. Considering this and the fact that they still have ~10% ownership stake in the company, it’s safe to assume they’ll continue to sell their shares and create an even greater selling pressure, which is likely going to prevent the stock from significantly appreciating from the current levels.\nValuation\nWe created a discounted cash flow model to find Palantir’s fair value. The weighted average cost of capital in our model is 6%, while the terminal growth rate is 3%.\nSource: Capital IQ, Own estimates\nAfter doing all the necessary calculations, our DCF model showed that Palantir’s fair value is $8.47 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.\nSource: Own estimates\nFor relative valuation, we compared Palantir to eight other companies from the tech industry and the SaaS niche in particular. By looking at the numbers below, we could safely say that Palantir is extremely overvalued to others, especially since its EBITDA margin of -72.8% is the worst among its peers, and at a market cap of ~$40 billion, its stock is overpriced.\nSource: Capital IQ\nBy consolidating the DCF model and the relative valuation method and giving the former 75% weight in the final analysis, while giving the latter 25$ weight in the final analysis, we concluded that Palantir’s final fair value is $8.22 per share, which is significantly below its current market price of ~$22 per share.\nSource: Own estimates\nTakeaway\nDespite its advanced data software solutions, Palantir continues to be an unattractive investment in our opinion and its stock is unlikely to move significantly higher anytime soon. The company doesn’t have a unique proposition at an affordable price on the market and there’s every reason to believe that its expenses will continue to increase in the following years due to the higher inflation and increased competition, while its bottom line will continue to suffer. As a result, despite signing new multi-million contracts from time to time, it’s still hard to justify its ~$40 billion market cap. Considering this, we strongly believe that Palantir is not a value investment at this stage, and not a growth play as well since the dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of its stock anytime soon.\nWhile we don’t expect the stock to depreciate to its fair value of $8.22 per share in the foreseeable future, a decent decline from the current market price is more than possible, especially since the company already trades at 28 times its revenues and is considered to be overvalued. For that reason, we stick to our opinion that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127725291,"gmtCreate":1624870422913,"gmtModify":1631891622757,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127725291","repostId":"1124372919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124256398,"gmtCreate":1624768586514,"gmtModify":1631891622774,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","listText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","text":"[Serious]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124256398","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122062858,"gmtCreate":1624588764174,"gmtModify":1631891622786,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","listText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","text":"[Serious]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122062858","repostId":"2145472760","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128068211,"gmtCreate":1624495643133,"gmtModify":1631891622799,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","listText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","text":"[Serious]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128068211","repostId":"1129538803","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129538803","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624494525,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129538803?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 08:28","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore's Keppel, Sembcorp Marine request trading halts<blockquote>新加坡吉宝、胜科海事要求暂停交易</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129538803","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 24 (Reuters) - Singapore-listed conglomerate Keppel Corp and rig builder Sembcorp Marine on Thu","content":"<p>June 24 (Reuters) - Singapore-listed conglomerate Keppel Corp and rig builder Sembcorp Marine on Thursday requested the stock exchange in separate filings that their shares be placed on trading halts pending announcements.</p><p><blockquote>路透6月24日-新加坡上市企业集团吉宝企业和钻井平台制造商胜科海事周四在单独的文件中要求证券交易所暂停交易，等待公告。</blockquote></p><p> Keppel and Sembcorp Marine were among the world’s biggest oil rig-builders, but a prolonged drop in oil prices and an oversupply of rigs have hit their businesses hard for several years.</p><p><blockquote>吉宝和胜科海事是全球最大的石油钻井平台建造商之一，但油价长期下跌和钻井平台供应过剩多年来严重打击了他们的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings, which is the biggest shareholder in both companies, had scrapped its plans last year to take majority stake in Keppel, following the company’s poor financial results.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡国有投资者淡马锡控股是两家公司的最大股东，由于吉宝财务业绩不佳，该公司去年取消了收购吉宝多数股权的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Markets had expected Temasek to lead a much-needed consolidation in the rig-building sector after a deal.</p><p><blockquote>市场此前预计淡马锡将在交易后引领钻井平台建造行业急需的整合。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, Keppel said its struggling offshore and marine (O&amp;M) segment will exit rig-building services, and that the company was also exploring inorganic options for the O&amp;M business.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，吉宝表示，其陷入困境的近海和海事(O&amp;M)部门将退出钻井平台建造服务，并且该公司还在探索O&amp;M业务的无机选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore's Keppel, Sembcorp Marine request trading halts<blockquote>新加坡吉宝、胜科海事要求暂停交易</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore's Keppel, Sembcorp Marine request trading halts<blockquote>新加坡吉宝、胜科海事要求暂停交易</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 08:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 24 (Reuters) - Singapore-listed conglomerate Keppel Corp and rig builder Sembcorp Marine on Thursday requested the stock exchange in separate filings that their shares be placed on trading halts pending announcements.</p><p><blockquote>路透6月24日-新加坡上市企业集团吉宝企业和钻井平台制造商胜科海事周四在单独的文件中要求证券交易所暂停交易，等待公告。</blockquote></p><p> Keppel and Sembcorp Marine were among the world’s biggest oil rig-builders, but a prolonged drop in oil prices and an oversupply of rigs have hit their businesses hard for several years.</p><p><blockquote>吉宝和胜科海事是全球最大的石油钻井平台建造商之一，但油价长期下跌和钻井平台供应过剩多年来严重打击了他们的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings, which is the biggest shareholder in both companies, had scrapped its plans last year to take majority stake in Keppel, following the company’s poor financial results.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡国有投资者淡马锡控股是两家公司的最大股东，由于吉宝财务业绩不佳，该公司去年取消了收购吉宝多数股权的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Markets had expected Temasek to lead a much-needed consolidation in the rig-building sector after a deal.</p><p><blockquote>市场此前预计淡马锡将在交易后引领钻井平台建造行业急需的整合。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, Keppel said its struggling offshore and marine (O&amp;M) segment will exit rig-building services, and that the company was also exploring inorganic options for the O&amp;M business.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，吉宝表示，其陷入困境的近海和海事(O&amp;M)部门将退出钻井平台建造服务，并且该公司还在探索O&amp;M业务的无机选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/keppel-corp-trading-halt-sembcorp-marine/update-1-singapores-keppel-sembcorp-marine-request-trading-halts-idUSL2N2O536D\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BN4.SI":"吉宝有限公司"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/keppel-corp-trading-halt-sembcorp-marine/update-1-singapores-keppel-sembcorp-marine-request-trading-halts-idUSL2N2O536D","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129538803","content_text":"June 24 (Reuters) - Singapore-listed conglomerate Keppel Corp and rig builder Sembcorp Marine on Thursday requested the stock exchange in separate filings that their shares be placed on trading halts pending announcements.\nKeppel and Sembcorp Marine were among the world’s biggest oil rig-builders, but a prolonged drop in oil prices and an oversupply of rigs have hit their businesses hard for several years.\nSingapore state investor Temasek Holdings, which is the biggest shareholder in both companies, had scrapped its plans last year to take majority stake in Keppel, following the company’s poor financial results.\nMarkets had expected Temasek to lead a much-needed consolidation in the rig-building sector after a deal.\nEarlier this year, Keppel said its struggling offshore and marine (O&M) segment will exit rig-building services, and that the company was also exploring inorganic options for the O&M business.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BN4.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164998873,"gmtCreate":1624164210392,"gmtModify":1631891622811,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","listText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","text":"[Serious]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164998873","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162738515,"gmtCreate":1624075201337,"gmtModify":1631891622824,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cry]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cry]&nbsp;","text":"[Cry]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162738515","repostId":"2144771631","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2040,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163497907,"gmtCreate":1623890751609,"gmtModify":1631891622839,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","listText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","text":"[Serious]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163497907","repostId":"1124213234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124213234","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623888164,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124213234?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 08:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Stock Has Underperformed. Two Analysts Advise Buying Now.<blockquote>亚马逊股票表现不佳。两位分析师建议立即买入。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124213234","media":"Barrons","summary":"While Amazon.com has produced astonishing growth in recent quarters, the stock has been stuck in neu","content":"<p>While Amazon.com has produced astonishing growth in recent quarters, the stock has been stuck in neutral, up just 4% for the year to date, trailing the broad market by almost 10 percentage points. Some analysts believe the underperformance provides an opportunity for investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚马逊最近几个季度取得了惊人的增长，但该股一直陷入中性，今年迄今仅上涨4%，落后大盘近10个百分点。一些分析师认为，表现不佳为投资者提供了机会。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies analyst Brent Thill on Wednesday designated Amazon (ticker: AMZN) shares a Franchise Pick, repeating a Buy rating and target of $4,200 for the stock price. On Wednesday, Amazon shares were up 0.95%, to $3,415.25.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师布伦特·蒂尔(Brent Thill)周三指定亚马逊（股票代码：AMZN）股票为特许经营权选择，重申买入评级和4,200美元的股价目标。周三，亚马逊股价上涨0.95%，至3,415.25美元。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote in a research note that Amazon is likely to benefit from both increased e-commerce adoption and faster growth at higher-margin cloud and advertising businesses. The stock’s recent performance leaves it at a discount of about 10% discount to historical norms in terms of its multiple of forward earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中写道，亚马逊可能会受益于电子商务采用率的增加以及利润率更高的云和广告业务的更快增长。他指出，该股最近的表现使其息税折旧摊销前远期收益倍数比历史正常水平低约10%。</blockquote></p><p> Although investors have shifted away from some of the pandemic-era winners, and concerns remain that e-commerce growth will slow as retail stores return to more normal operations, Thill said Amazon’s outlook is arguably better than ever.</p><p><blockquote>尽管投资者已经远离了一些大流行时代的赢家，并且仍然担心随着零售店恢复更正常的运营，电子商务增长将放缓，但蒂尔表示，亚马逊的前景可以说比以往任何时候都好。</blockquote></p><p> Behavioral changes resulting from the pandemic have led to a permanent increase in e-commerce adoption, Thill said. He also said growth at Amazon Web Services and in advertising will more than offset any near-term slowdown in the core retail business resulting from comparisons with high pandemic-era sales.</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔说，疫情带来的行为变化导致电子商务采用率永久增加。他还表示，亚马逊网络服务和广告的增长将足以抵消核心零售业务近期因与大流行时期的高销售额相比而放缓的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Thill said a proprietary survey of about 700 U.S. adults about their shopping habits found that 60% are spending more online since the pandemic began. And 63% of that group say they are continuing to do so even now that restrictions have been lifted. “Amazon is a clear standout,” he said, with 77% of consumers continuing to spend more on the site since restrictions were lifted.</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔表示，一项针对约700名美国成年人购物习惯的专有调查发现，自疫情开始以来，60%的人在网上消费增加了。63%的人表示，即使限制已经取消，他们仍在继续这样做。“亚马逊显然表现出色，”他说，自限制取消以来，77%的消费者继续在该网站上增加支出。</blockquote></p><p> In designating Amazon a Franchise Pick, Thill removed that status for Alphabet (GOOGL). He said that while he continues to like Alphabet shares, the 39% rally in the stock this year leaves it as a 10% premium to its historical average.</p><p><blockquote>在指定亚马逊为特许经营权时，蒂尔取消了Alphabet（GOOGL）的这一地位。他表示，虽然他仍然看好Alphabet股票，但该股今年上涨了39%，较历史平均水平溢价10%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth on Wednesday did a deep dive on Amazon Prime, and reported that the service, priced at $119 a year, delivers about $1,000 a year of value. That includes not just free delivery of many products sold on Amazon, in some instances on the same day, but also Amazon Prime Video, Prime Music, and grocery delivery from both Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，摩根大通分析师道格·安穆斯(Doug Anmuth)周三对亚马逊Prime进行了深入研究，并报告称，这项每年定价为119美元的服务每年可提供约1,000美元的价值。这不仅包括亚马逊上销售的许多产品的免费送货，在某些情况下是在同一天，还包括亚马逊Prime Video、Prime Music以及亚马逊生鲜和全食超市的杂货送货。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that the company has been investing heavily in content for Amazon Prime, including the pending&nbsp;MGM acquisition&nbsp;and buying the rights to stream&nbsp;Thursday Night Football, while also expanding its podcast offerings on Amazon Music. The company has also added&nbsp;Amazon Key, a service for in-garage delivery in more than 5,000 U.S. cities.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，该公司一直在亚马逊Prime的内容上投入巨资，包括即将进行的米高梅收购和购买周四橄榄球之夜的转播权，同时还扩大了亚马逊音乐上的播客产品。该公司还增加了Amazon Key，这是一项在美国5000多个城市提供车库内送货服务。</blockquote></p><p> Anmuth said Amazon hasn’t increased the price of Prime since 2018, when it raised the rate to $119 a year, from $99. He thinks a price increase could come as early as the second half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Anmuth表示，亚马逊自2018年将Prime的价格从每年99美元提高到119美元以来就没有提高过。他认为价格最早可能在2021年下半年上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The number of Prime subscribers will rise to 237.5 million in 2021 from 200 million last year as more people overseas sign up, Anmuth predicted. He said Amazon could boost its international subscribers by more than 50 million in current markets and that there are many more markets the company could add over time. He estimates the 2021 subscriber count will include about 91.9 million in the U.S. and 145.6 million internationally.</p><p><blockquote>Anmuth预测，随着越来越多的海外用户注册，Prime用户数量将从去年的2亿增至2021年的2.375亿。他表示，亚马逊可以在当前市场将其国际用户增加超过5000万，并且随着时间的推移，该公司还可以增加更多市场。他估计，2021年的用户数量将包括美国约9190万用户和国际1.456亿用户。</blockquote></p><p> Anmuth repeated his Overweight rating and $4,600 price target on Amazon shares.</p><p><blockquote>Anmuth重申了他对亚马逊股票的跑赢大盘评级和4,600美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Stock Has Underperformed. Two Analysts Advise Buying Now.<blockquote>亚马逊股票表现不佳。两位分析师建议立即买入。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Stock Has Underperformed. Two Analysts Advise Buying Now.<blockquote>亚马逊股票表现不佳。两位分析师建议立即买入。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 08:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While Amazon.com has produced astonishing growth in recent quarters, the stock has been stuck in neutral, up just 4% for the year to date, trailing the broad market by almost 10 percentage points. Some analysts believe the underperformance provides an opportunity for investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚马逊最近几个季度取得了惊人的增长，但该股一直陷入中性，今年迄今仅上涨4%，落后大盘近10个百分点。一些分析师认为，表现不佳为投资者提供了机会。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies analyst Brent Thill on Wednesday designated Amazon (ticker: AMZN) shares a Franchise Pick, repeating a Buy rating and target of $4,200 for the stock price. On Wednesday, Amazon shares were up 0.95%, to $3,415.25.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师布伦特·蒂尔(Brent Thill)周三指定亚马逊（股票代码：AMZN）股票为特许经营权选择，重申买入评级和4,200美元的股价目标。周三，亚马逊股价上涨0.95%，至3,415.25美元。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote in a research note that Amazon is likely to benefit from both increased e-commerce adoption and faster growth at higher-margin cloud and advertising businesses. The stock’s recent performance leaves it at a discount of about 10% discount to historical norms in terms of its multiple of forward earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中写道，亚马逊可能会受益于电子商务采用率的增加以及利润率更高的云和广告业务的更快增长。他指出，该股最近的表现使其息税折旧摊销前远期收益倍数比历史正常水平低约10%。</blockquote></p><p> Although investors have shifted away from some of the pandemic-era winners, and concerns remain that e-commerce growth will slow as retail stores return to more normal operations, Thill said Amazon’s outlook is arguably better than ever.</p><p><blockquote>尽管投资者已经远离了一些大流行时代的赢家，并且仍然担心随着零售店恢复更正常的运营，电子商务增长将放缓，但蒂尔表示，亚马逊的前景可以说比以往任何时候都好。</blockquote></p><p> Behavioral changes resulting from the pandemic have led to a permanent increase in e-commerce adoption, Thill said. He also said growth at Amazon Web Services and in advertising will more than offset any near-term slowdown in the core retail business resulting from comparisons with high pandemic-era sales.</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔说，疫情带来的行为变化导致电子商务采用率永久增加。他还表示，亚马逊网络服务和广告的增长将足以抵消核心零售业务近期因与大流行时期的高销售额相比而放缓的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Thill said a proprietary survey of about 700 U.S. adults about their shopping habits found that 60% are spending more online since the pandemic began. And 63% of that group say they are continuing to do so even now that restrictions have been lifted. “Amazon is a clear standout,” he said, with 77% of consumers continuing to spend more on the site since restrictions were lifted.</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔表示，一项针对约700名美国成年人购物习惯的专有调查发现，自疫情开始以来，60%的人在网上消费增加了。63%的人表示，即使限制已经取消，他们仍在继续这样做。“亚马逊显然表现出色，”他说，自限制取消以来，77%的消费者继续在该网站上增加支出。</blockquote></p><p> In designating Amazon a Franchise Pick, Thill removed that status for Alphabet (GOOGL). He said that while he continues to like Alphabet shares, the 39% rally in the stock this year leaves it as a 10% premium to its historical average.</p><p><blockquote>在指定亚马逊为特许经营权时，蒂尔取消了Alphabet（GOOGL）的这一地位。他表示，虽然他仍然看好Alphabet股票，但该股今年上涨了39%，较历史平均水平溢价10%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth on Wednesday did a deep dive on Amazon Prime, and reported that the service, priced at $119 a year, delivers about $1,000 a year of value. That includes not just free delivery of many products sold on Amazon, in some instances on the same day, but also Amazon Prime Video, Prime Music, and grocery delivery from both Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，摩根大通分析师道格·安穆斯(Doug Anmuth)周三对亚马逊Prime进行了深入研究，并报告称，这项每年定价为119美元的服务每年可提供约1,000美元的价值。这不仅包括亚马逊上销售的许多产品的免费送货，在某些情况下是在同一天，还包括亚马逊Prime Video、Prime Music以及亚马逊生鲜和全食超市的杂货送货。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that the company has been investing heavily in content for Amazon Prime, including the pending&nbsp;MGM acquisition&nbsp;and buying the rights to stream&nbsp;Thursday Night Football, while also expanding its podcast offerings on Amazon Music. The company has also added&nbsp;Amazon Key, a service for in-garage delivery in more than 5,000 U.S. cities.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，该公司一直在亚马逊Prime的内容上投入巨资，包括即将进行的米高梅收购和购买周四橄榄球之夜的转播权，同时还扩大了亚马逊音乐上的播客产品。该公司还增加了Amazon Key，这是一项在美国5000多个城市提供车库内送货服务。</blockquote></p><p> Anmuth said Amazon hasn’t increased the price of Prime since 2018, when it raised the rate to $119 a year, from $99. He thinks a price increase could come as early as the second half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Anmuth表示，亚马逊自2018年将Prime的价格从每年99美元提高到119美元以来就没有提高过。他认为价格最早可能在2021年下半年上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The number of Prime subscribers will rise to 237.5 million in 2021 from 200 million last year as more people overseas sign up, Anmuth predicted. He said Amazon could boost its international subscribers by more than 50 million in current markets and that there are many more markets the company could add over time. He estimates the 2021 subscriber count will include about 91.9 million in the U.S. and 145.6 million internationally.</p><p><blockquote>Anmuth预测，随着越来越多的海外用户注册，Prime用户数量将从去年的2亿增至2021年的2.375亿。他表示，亚马逊可以在当前市场将其国际用户增加超过5000万，并且随着时间的推移，该公司还可以增加更多市场。他估计，2021年的用户数量将包括美国约9190万用户和国际1.456亿用户。</blockquote></p><p> Anmuth repeated his Overweight rating and $4,600 price target on Amazon shares.</p><p><blockquote>Anmuth重申了他对亚马逊股票的跑赢大盘评级和4,600美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-stock-analysts-buy-now-51623858237?mod=hp_DAY_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-stock-analysts-buy-now-51623858237?mod=hp_DAY_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124213234","content_text":"While Amazon.com has produced astonishing growth in recent quarters, the stock has been stuck in neutral, up just 4% for the year to date, trailing the broad market by almost 10 percentage points. Some analysts believe the underperformance provides an opportunity for investors.\nJefferies analyst Brent Thill on Wednesday designated Amazon (ticker: AMZN) shares a Franchise Pick, repeating a Buy rating and target of $4,200 for the stock price. On Wednesday, Amazon shares were up 0.95%, to $3,415.25.\nHe wrote in a research note that Amazon is likely to benefit from both increased e-commerce adoption and faster growth at higher-margin cloud and advertising businesses. The stock’s recent performance leaves it at a discount of about 10% discount to historical norms in terms of its multiple of forward earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, he noted.\nAlthough investors have shifted away from some of the pandemic-era winners, and concerns remain that e-commerce growth will slow as retail stores return to more normal operations, Thill said Amazon’s outlook is arguably better than ever.\nBehavioral changes resulting from the pandemic have led to a permanent increase in e-commerce adoption, Thill said. He also said growth at Amazon Web Services and in advertising will more than offset any near-term slowdown in the core retail business resulting from comparisons with high pandemic-era sales.\nThill said a proprietary survey of about 700 U.S. adults about their shopping habits found that 60% are spending more online since the pandemic began. And 63% of that group say they are continuing to do so even now that restrictions have been lifted. “Amazon is a clear standout,” he said, with 77% of consumers continuing to spend more on the site since restrictions were lifted.\nIn designating Amazon a Franchise Pick, Thill removed that status for Alphabet (GOOGL). He said that while he continues to like Alphabet shares, the 39% rally in the stock this year leaves it as a 10% premium to its historical average.\nMeanwhile, J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth on Wednesday did a deep dive on Amazon Prime, and reported that the service, priced at $119 a year, delivers about $1,000 a year of value. That includes not just free delivery of many products sold on Amazon, in some instances on the same day, but also Amazon Prime Video, Prime Music, and grocery delivery from both Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods.\nHe noted that the company has been investing heavily in content for Amazon Prime, including the pending MGM acquisition and buying the rights to stream Thursday Night Football, while also expanding its podcast offerings on Amazon Music. The company has also added Amazon Key, a service for in-garage delivery in more than 5,000 U.S. cities.\nAnmuth said Amazon hasn’t increased the price of Prime since 2018, when it raised the rate to $119 a year, from $99. He thinks a price increase could come as early as the second half of 2021.\nThe number of Prime subscribers will rise to 237.5 million in 2021 from 200 million last year as more people overseas sign up, Anmuth predicted. He said Amazon could boost its international subscribers by more than 50 million in current markets and that there are many more markets the company could add over time. He estimates the 2021 subscriber count will include about 91.9 million in the U.S. and 145.6 million internationally.\nAnmuth repeated his Overweight rating and $4,600 price target on Amazon shares.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160499357,"gmtCreate":1623803612479,"gmtModify":1631891622849,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","listText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","text":"[Serious]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160499357","repostId":"1147269544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147269544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623770166,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147269544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Michael \"Big Short\" Burry: This Is The Greatest Bubble Of All Time In All Things \"By Two Orders Of Magnitude\"<blockquote>“大空头”迈克尔·伯里：这是有史以来最大的泡沫，“高出两个数量级”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147269544","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he p","content":"<p>Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he picked up on the theme of Weimar Germany and specifically its<b>hyperinflation, as the blueprint for what comes next</b>in a lengthy tweetstorm cribbing generously fromParsson's seminal work, warning that<b>:</b></p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，“大空头”迈克尔·伯里证实了美国银行最大的担忧，因为他谈到了魏玛德国的主题，特别是其<b>恶性通货膨胀，作为下一步的蓝图</b>在一篇冗长的推特风暴中，大量抄袭了帕森的开创性工作，警告说<b>：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery</b>. Trillions more stimulus &amp; re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>“美国政府正在以其带有MMT色彩的政策引发通胀。强劲的债务/GDP、M2增加，而零售销售、PMI第五阶段复苏</b>随着员工和供应链成本飙升，数万亿美元的刺激措施和重新开放以提振需求。”</blockquote></p><p> #ParadigmShift</p><p><blockquote>#范式转变</blockquote></p><p> \"The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom..Many great fortunes sprang up overnight...The cities, had an aimless and wanton youth\"</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀在成熟阶段的生活是一个悖论，它有自己明确无误的特征。一个是巨大的财富，至少是那些被繁荣所青睐的人。许多巨大的财富在一夜之间涌现出来……城市里有一群漫无目的、肆无忌惮的年轻人。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Prices in Germany were steady, and both business and the stock market were booming. The exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time, and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world\" on inflation's eve.</p><p><blockquote>“德国物价平稳，商业和股市都很繁荣。马克对美元和其他货币的汇率实际上一度上升，马克在通货膨胀前夕一时成为世界上最坚挺的货币”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“与财富并存的是贫困地区。更多的人留在轻松赚钱的外围，看进去却进不去。犯罪率飙升。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people, compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace, to no visible purpose, and their fears from watching their own precarious positions slip while others grew so conspicuously rich.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“当时的记录表明，普通人的士气逐渐低落，加上他们对无明显目的的极快节奏感到厌倦，他们害怕看到自己岌岌可危的地位下滑，而其他人却变得如此明显地富有。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out.\"</p><p><blockquote>“几乎任何一种企业都能赚钱。企业失败和破产的情况变得很少了。繁荣中止了正常的自然选择过程，否则不必要和无效的东西就会被剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“单是投机，虽然没有增加德国的财富，但却成了德国最大的活动之一。加入快速赚钱的热潮几乎感染了所有阶层……从电梯操作员到现在，每个人都在玩市场。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork...and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog\" #<i>robinhooddown</i></p><p><blockquote>“柏林证券交易所的证券交易量变得如此之高，以至于金融业无法跟上文书工作的步伐……交易所不得不每周关闭几天来处理积压的交易。”#<i>罗宾汉</i></blockquote></p><p> \"all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single&nbsp; newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier.\"</p><p><blockquote>“1922年夏天世界上存在的所有马克，到1923年11月还不够买一份报纸或一张电车车票。这是崩溃的壮观之处，但货币财富的大部分真正损失在更早的时候就已经遭受了。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow.<b>Germany's #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>“这些年来，这个结构一直在悄悄地为打击做好准备。<b>德国的#通货膨胀周期不是一年，而是九年，其中八年是酝酿，只有一年是崩溃。”</b></blockquote></p><p> His punchline: the above was \"written in 1974 re: 1914-1923\" and then makes the ominous extrapolation that \"<b>2010-2021: Gestation</b>\" adding that \"when dollars might as well be falling from the sky...management teams get creative and ultimately take more risk.. paying out debt-financed dividends to investors or investing in risky growth opportunities has beaten a frugal mentality hands down.\"</p><p><blockquote>他的笑点：以上是“写于1974年re：1914-1923”，然后做出不祥的推断“<b>2010-2021年：妊娠</b>“当美元可能从天而降时...管理团队变得富有创造力，最终承担更多风险..向投资者支付债务融资股息或投资高风险增长机会无疑击败了节俭心态。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c531b21050b42425510a30125935555e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\">And, as if reading from the same playbook,<b>Paul Tudor Jones warned yesterday that things are \"bat shit crazy\"</b>and if Jay Powell</p><p><blockquote>而且，就像是在读同一本剧本，<b>保罗·都铎·琼斯昨天警告说，事情“太疯狂了”</b>如果杰伊·鲍威尔</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“The idea that inflation is transitory, to me ... that one just doesn’t work the way I see the world.\"</b></i>  All of which led to Burry's latest tweet warning this morning...</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“对我来说，通货膨胀是暂时的……这种想法并不符合我看待世界的方式。”</b></i>所有这些导致了伯里今天早上的最新推文警告...</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>\"People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude.</b></i>#FlyingPigs360\"  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afafeb68134e031ca871659bd8dbc595\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"261\">In other words:<i><b>\"Brace!\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>“人们总是问我市场上发生了什么。这很简单。有史以来最大的投机泡沫。两个数量级。</b></i>#FlyingPigs360”换句话说：<i><b>“撑住！”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> So what are you going to do about it?</p><p><blockquote>那你打算怎么办？</blockquote></p><p> Tudor Jones had some simple advice: \"<b>buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>都铎·琼斯有一些简单的建议：“<b>购买大宗商品、购买加密货币、购买黄金。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Michael \"Big Short\" Burry: This Is The Greatest Bubble Of All Time In All Things \"By Two Orders Of Magnitude\"<blockquote>“大空头”迈克尔·伯里：这是有史以来最大的泡沫，“高出两个数量级”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMichael \"Big Short\" Burry: This Is The Greatest Bubble Of All Time In All Things \"By Two Orders Of Magnitude\"<blockquote>“大空头”迈克尔·伯里：这是有史以来最大的泡沫，“高出两个数量级”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 23:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he picked up on the theme of Weimar Germany and specifically its<b>hyperinflation, as the blueprint for what comes next</b>in a lengthy tweetstorm cribbing generously fromParsson's seminal work, warning that<b>:</b></p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，“大空头”迈克尔·伯里证实了美国银行最大的担忧，因为他谈到了魏玛德国的主题，特别是其<b>恶性通货膨胀，作为下一步的蓝图</b>在一篇冗长的推特风暴中，大量抄袭了帕森的开创性工作，警告说<b>：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery</b>. Trillions more stimulus &amp; re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>“美国政府正在以其带有MMT色彩的政策引发通胀。强劲的债务/GDP、M2增加，而零售销售、PMI第五阶段复苏</b>随着员工和供应链成本飙升，数万亿美元的刺激措施和重新开放以提振需求。”</blockquote></p><p> #ParadigmShift</p><p><blockquote>#范式转变</blockquote></p><p> \"The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom..Many great fortunes sprang up overnight...The cities, had an aimless and wanton youth\"</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀在成熟阶段的生活是一个悖论，它有自己明确无误的特征。一个是巨大的财富，至少是那些被繁荣所青睐的人。许多巨大的财富在一夜之间涌现出来……城市里有一群漫无目的、肆无忌惮的年轻人。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Prices in Germany were steady, and both business and the stock market were booming. The exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time, and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world\" on inflation's eve.</p><p><blockquote>“德国物价平稳，商业和股市都很繁荣。马克对美元和其他货币的汇率实际上一度上升，马克在通货膨胀前夕一时成为世界上最坚挺的货币”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“与财富并存的是贫困地区。更多的人留在轻松赚钱的外围，看进去却进不去。犯罪率飙升。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people, compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace, to no visible purpose, and their fears from watching their own precarious positions slip while others grew so conspicuously rich.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“当时的记录表明，普通人的士气逐渐低落，加上他们对无明显目的的极快节奏感到厌倦，他们害怕看到自己岌岌可危的地位下滑，而其他人却变得如此明显地富有。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out.\"</p><p><blockquote>“几乎任何一种企业都能赚钱。企业失败和破产的情况变得很少了。繁荣中止了正常的自然选择过程，否则不必要和无效的东西就会被剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“单是投机，虽然没有增加德国的财富，但却成了德国最大的活动之一。加入快速赚钱的热潮几乎感染了所有阶层……从电梯操作员到现在，每个人都在玩市场。”</b></blockquote></p><p> \"The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork...and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog\" #<i>robinhooddown</i></p><p><blockquote>“柏林证券交易所的证券交易量变得如此之高，以至于金融业无法跟上文书工作的步伐……交易所不得不每周关闭几天来处理积压的交易。”#<i>罗宾汉</i></blockquote></p><p> \"all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single&nbsp; newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier.\"</p><p><blockquote>“1922年夏天世界上存在的所有马克，到1923年11月还不够买一份报纸或一张电车车票。这是崩溃的壮观之处，但货币财富的大部分真正损失在更早的时候就已经遭受了。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow.<b>Germany's #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>“这些年来，这个结构一直在悄悄地为打击做好准备。<b>德国的#通货膨胀周期不是一年，而是九年，其中八年是酝酿，只有一年是崩溃。”</b></blockquote></p><p> His punchline: the above was \"written in 1974 re: 1914-1923\" and then makes the ominous extrapolation that \"<b>2010-2021: Gestation</b>\" adding that \"when dollars might as well be falling from the sky...management teams get creative and ultimately take more risk.. paying out debt-financed dividends to investors or investing in risky growth opportunities has beaten a frugal mentality hands down.\"</p><p><blockquote>他的笑点：以上是“写于1974年re：1914-1923”，然后做出不祥的推断“<b>2010-2021年：妊娠</b>“当美元可能从天而降时...管理团队变得富有创造力，最终承担更多风险..向投资者支付债务融资股息或投资高风险增长机会无疑击败了节俭心态。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c531b21050b42425510a30125935555e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\">And, as if reading from the same playbook,<b>Paul Tudor Jones warned yesterday that things are \"bat shit crazy\"</b>and if Jay Powell</p><p><blockquote>而且，就像是在读同一本剧本，<b>保罗·都铎·琼斯昨天警告说，事情“太疯狂了”</b>如果杰伊·鲍威尔</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“The idea that inflation is transitory, to me ... that one just doesn’t work the way I see the world.\"</b></i>  All of which led to Burry's latest tweet warning this morning...</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“对我来说，通货膨胀是暂时的……这种想法并不符合我看待世界的方式。”</b></i>所有这些导致了伯里今天早上的最新推文警告...</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>\"People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude.</b></i>#FlyingPigs360\"  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afafeb68134e031ca871659bd8dbc595\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"261\">In other words:<i><b>\"Brace!\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>“人们总是问我市场上发生了什么。这很简单。有史以来最大的投机泡沫。两个数量级。</b></i>#FlyingPigs360”换句话说：<i><b>“撑住！”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> So what are you going to do about it?</p><p><blockquote>那你打算怎么办？</blockquote></p><p> Tudor Jones had some simple advice: \"<b>buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>都铎·琼斯有一些简单的建议：“<b>购买大宗商品、购买加密货币、购买黄金。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-big-short-burry-greatest-bubble-all-time-all-things-two-orders-magnitude\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-big-short-burry-greatest-bubble-all-time-all-things-two-orders-magnitude","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147269544","content_text":"Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmedBofA's greatest fears, as he picked up on the theme of Weimar Germany and specifically itshyperinflation, as the blueprint for what comes nextin a lengthy tweetstorm cribbing generously fromParsson's seminal work, warning that:\n\"The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery. Trillions more stimulus & re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket.\"\n#ParadigmShift\n\"The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom..Many great fortunes sprang up overnight...The cities, had an aimless and wanton youth\"\n\"Prices in Germany were steady, and both business and the stock market were booming. The exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time, and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world\" on inflation's eve.\n\"Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared.\"\n\"Accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people, compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace, to no visible purpose, and their fears from watching their own precarious positions slip while others grew so conspicuously rich.\"\n\"Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out.\"\n\"Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market.\"\n\"The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork...and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog\" #robinhooddown\n\"all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single  newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier.\"\n\"Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow.Germany's #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse.\"\nHis punchline: the above was \"written in 1974 re: 1914-1923\" and then makes the ominous extrapolation that \"2010-2021: Gestation\" adding that \"when dollars might as well be falling from the sky...management teams get creative and ultimately take more risk.. paying out debt-financed dividends to investors or investing in risky growth opportunities has beaten a frugal mentality hands down.\"\nAnd, as if reading from the same playbook,Paul Tudor Jones warned yesterday that things are \"bat shit crazy\"and if Jay Powell\n\n“The idea that inflation is transitory, to me ... that one just doesn’t work the way I see the world.\"\n\nAll of which led to Burry's latest tweet warning this morning...\n\n\"People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude.#FlyingPigs360\"\n\nIn other words:\"Brace!\"\nSo what are you going to do about it?\nTudor Jones had some simple advice: \"buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184270983,"gmtCreate":1623717210242,"gmtModify":1631891622860,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","listText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","text":"[Serious]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184270983","repostId":"1171648213","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185381691,"gmtCreate":1623633441313,"gmtModify":1631892788920,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","listText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","text":"[Serious]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185381691","repostId":"2143857187","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185317345,"gmtCreate":1623633310387,"gmtModify":1631892788932,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","listText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","text":"[Serious]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185317345","repostId":"1165811803","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":856,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186408832,"gmtCreate":1623515935126,"gmtModify":1631892788939,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting read.","listText":"Interesting read.","text":"Interesting read.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186408832","repostId":"1147474880","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1147474880","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623470168,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147474880?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147474880","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless ris","content":"<p>  Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.  I’ve had it.</p><p><blockquote>了解投机和投资之间的区别对于避免鲁莽风险至关重要。我受够了。</blockquote></p><p> The Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.</p><p><blockquote>关于金融最基本的区别之一，《华尔街日报》是错误的，而且几十年来一直是错误的。我再也受不了了。</blockquote></p><p> If you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.</p><p><blockquote>如果你购买一只股票纯粹是因为它上涨了很多，而没有对其进行任何研究，那么你就不是——正如《华尔街日报》及其编辑奇怪地坚持这样称呼你的那样——“投资者”。如果你购买加密货币是因为，嘿，这听起来很有趣，你也不是投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Whenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.</p><p><blockquote>每当你购买任何金融资产是因为你有一个只是为了好玩，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传它，而其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。</blockquote></p><p> You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.</p><p><blockquote>你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你付出更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> Of course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%<i>are</i>investors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有些人购买像GameStopCorp.GME 5.88%这样的模因股票<i>是</i>投资者。他们阅读公司的财务报表，研究基础业务的健康状况，并了解还有谁在做空股票。同样，许多数字硬币的买家也投入了时间和精力来了解加密货币的工作原理以及它如何重塑金融。</blockquote></p><p> An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.</p><p><blockquote>投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。</blockquote></p><p> The word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.</p><p><blockquote>投资者这个词来自拉丁语“investire”，意思是穿着或打扮自己，包围或包围。你永远不会在不知道衣服是什么颜色或由什么材料制成的情况下穿衣服。同样，你不能投资你一无所知的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，《华尔街日报》及其编辑长期以来一直将几乎所有购买任何东西的人称为“投资者”。1962年7月12日，《华尔街日报》发表了经典著作《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》的作者本杰明·格雷厄姆写给编辑的一封信。格雷厄姆抱怨说，那年6月，《华尔街日报》发表了一篇文章，标题是“许多小投资者押注进一步下跌，卖空零星股票”。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“根据‘投资’的什么定义，人们可以给那些通过卖空零头在股市上下注的小人物起‘投资者’这个名字呢？”（做空奇数手就是借入并卖出少于100股的股票，押注股票会下跌——无论在当时还是现在，这都是一个昂贵且有风险的赌注。）</blockquote></p><p> “If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”</p><p><blockquote>“如果这些人是投资者，”格雷厄姆问道，“我们应该如何定义‘投机’和‘投机者’？难道目前未能区分投资和投机的做法，不仅会对个人，而且会对整个金融界造成严重伤害吗——就像20世纪20年代末那样？”</blockquote></p><p> Graham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆并不是一个认为市场应该是富人专属游乐场的势利小人。他写了《聪明的投资者》，明确的目的是帮助不太富裕的人明智地参与股市。</blockquote></p><p> In that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆在那本书（本专栏就是以其命名的）中说：“彻头彻尾的投机既不违法、不道德，也（对大多数人来说）不会让钱包发胖。”</blockquote></p><p> However, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他警告说，这会带来三种危险：“（1）当你认为自己在投资时进行投机；（2）当你缺乏适当的知识和技能时，认真地投机而不是作为一种消遣；以及（3）冒更多钱的风险投机超出了你的承受能力。”</blockquote></p><p> Most investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者每隔一段时间就会投机一点。就像彩票或偶尔去赛马场或赌场一样，一点点是无害的乐趣。很多都不是。</blockquote></p><p> If you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为你在投机时是在投资，你会将哪怕是短暂的成功归因于技能，即使运气是最可能的解释。这会导致你冒鲁莽的风险。</blockquote></p><p> Take speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.</p><p><blockquote>把投机看得太重，它会变成一种痴迷和上瘾。你变得无法接受你的损失，也无法关注未来超过几分钟。接下来你知道的是，你在篝火上投入了更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> I think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，将交易者和投机者称为“投资者”会将许多新来者推向他们不应该承担的风险和他们无法承受的损失的滑坡。我热切地希望《华尔街日报》及其编辑最终不再使用“投资者”作为任何进行交易的人的默认术语。</blockquote></p><p> “ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”</p><p><blockquote>“‘投资者’在英语中作为一个包罗万象的术语有着悠久的历史，指的是那些投入资本并期望回报的人，无论时间长短，无论他们阅读的投资专栏有多少，”《华尔街日报》财经编辑查尔斯·福雷尔在回应我的投诉时说道。“至少可以追溯到19世纪中叶，‘投资’甚至被用来描述赌马——这种活动与基本面分析的脱节程度肯定不亚于购买狗狗币。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.</p><p><blockquote>我听到了，老板，但我还是认为你错了。《华尔街日报》不可能仅仅因为字典上说我们可以，就说一个休闲赌徒在赛马场“投资”。</blockquote></p><p> Calling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.</p><p><blockquote>将新手投机者称为“投资者”是营销人员助长过度交易的最有力方式之一。</blockquote></p><p> Ina recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的Instagram帖子中，一位名叫拉娜·罗迪斯(Lana Rhoades)的前色情明星穿着——嗯，大部分是穿着——比基尼，举着似乎是格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》。据IMDb.com报道，她主演了《Tushy》和《Make Me Meow》等视频。</blockquote></p><p> In her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.</p><p><blockquote>在她被近180万人“点赞”的帖子中，罗迪斯宣布她将推广一种名为PAWGCoin的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> The currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)</p><p><blockquote>该货币的网站称，这枚硬币是为“那些向发达的后躯致敬的人”准备的。（我得到可靠消息，PAWG代表胖屁股白人女孩。）</blockquote></p><p> PAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.</p><p><blockquote>据追踪此类数字货币的网站Poocoin.io称，自Rhoades女士6月初开始推广PAWGcoin以来，PAWGcoin已上涨约900%。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”</p><p><blockquote>罗迪斯女士在推特上写道“我每天早上也阅读《华尔街日报》”，但记者无法联系到她置评。PAWGcoin的网站鼓励访问者“立即投资”。</blockquote></p><p> In Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.</p><p><blockquote>在罗迪斯的Instagram帖子中，她举着一本打开的《聪明的投资者》，封面是颠倒的。她似乎是闭着眼睛读的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?<blockquote>投资者、交易者、投机者：你是哪一个？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-12 11:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.  I’ve had it.</p><p><blockquote>了解投机和投资之间的区别对于避免鲁莽风险至关重要。我受够了。</blockquote></p><p> The Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.</p><p><blockquote>关于金融最基本的区别之一，《华尔街日报》是错误的，而且几十年来一直是错误的。我再也受不了了。</blockquote></p><p> If you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.</p><p><blockquote>如果你购买一只股票纯粹是因为它上涨了很多，而没有对其进行任何研究，那么你就不是——正如《华尔街日报》及其编辑奇怪地坚持这样称呼你的那样——“投资者”。如果你购买加密货币是因为，嘿，这听起来很有趣，你也不是投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Whenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.</p><p><blockquote>每当你购买任何金融资产是因为你有一个只是为了好玩，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传它，而其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。</blockquote></p><p> You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.</p><p><blockquote>你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你付出更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> Of course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%<i>are</i>investors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有些人购买像GameStopCorp.GME 5.88%这样的模因股票<i>是</i>投资者。他们阅读公司的财务报表，研究基础业务的健康状况，并了解还有谁在做空股票。同样，许多数字硬币的买家也投入了时间和精力来了解加密货币的工作原理以及它如何重塑金融。</blockquote></p><p> An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.</p><p><blockquote>投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。</blockquote></p><p> The word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.</p><p><blockquote>投资者这个词来自拉丁语“investire”，意思是穿着或打扮自己，包围或包围。你永远不会在不知道衣服是什么颜色或由什么材料制成的情况下穿衣服。同样，你不能投资你一无所知的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，《华尔街日报》及其编辑长期以来一直将几乎所有购买任何东西的人称为“投资者”。1962年7月12日，《华尔街日报》发表了经典著作《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》的作者本杰明·格雷厄姆写给编辑的一封信。格雷厄姆抱怨说，那年6月，《华尔街日报》发表了一篇文章，标题是“许多小投资者押注进一步下跌，卖空零星股票”。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“根据‘投资’的什么定义，人们可以给那些通过卖空零头在股市上下注的小人物起‘投资者’这个名字呢？”（做空奇数手就是借入并卖出少于100股的股票，押注股票会下跌——无论在当时还是现在，这都是一个昂贵且有风险的赌注。）</blockquote></p><p> “If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”</p><p><blockquote>“如果这些人是投资者，”格雷厄姆问道，“我们应该如何定义‘投机’和‘投机者’？难道目前未能区分投资和投机的做法，不仅会对个人，而且会对整个金融界造成严重伤害吗——就像20世纪20年代末那样？”</blockquote></p><p> Graham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆并不是一个认为市场应该是富人专属游乐场的势利小人。他写了《聪明的投资者》，明确的目的是帮助不太富裕的人明智地参与股市。</blockquote></p><p> In that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”</p><p><blockquote>格雷厄姆在那本书（本专栏就是以其命名的）中说：“彻头彻尾的投机既不违法、不道德，也（对大多数人来说）不会让钱包发胖。”</blockquote></p><p> However, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”</p><p><blockquote>然而，他警告说，这会带来三种危险：“（1）当你认为自己在投资时进行投机；（2）当你缺乏适当的知识和技能时，认真地投机而不是作为一种消遣；以及（3）冒更多钱的风险投机超出了你的承受能力。”</blockquote></p><p> Most investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者每隔一段时间就会投机一点。就像彩票或偶尔去赛马场或赌场一样，一点点是无害的乐趣。很多都不是。</blockquote></p><p> If you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为你在投机时是在投资，你会将哪怕是短暂的成功归因于技能，即使运气是最可能的解释。这会导致你冒鲁莽的风险。</blockquote></p><p> Take speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.</p><p><blockquote>把投机看得太重，它会变成一种痴迷和上瘾。你变得无法接受你的损失，也无法关注未来超过几分钟。接下来你知道的是，你在篝火上投入了更多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> I think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，将交易者和投机者称为“投资者”会将许多新来者推向他们不应该承担的风险和他们无法承受的损失的滑坡。我热切地希望《华尔街日报》及其编辑最终不再使用“投资者”作为任何进行交易的人的默认术语。</blockquote></p><p> “ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”</p><p><blockquote>“‘投资者’在英语中作为一个包罗万象的术语有着悠久的历史，指的是那些投入资本并期望回报的人，无论时间长短，无论他们阅读的投资专栏有多少，”《华尔街日报》财经编辑查尔斯·福雷尔在回应我的投诉时说道。“至少可以追溯到19世纪中叶，‘投资’甚至被用来描述赌马——这种活动与基本面分析的脱节程度肯定不亚于购买狗狗币。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.</p><p><blockquote>我听到了，老板，但我还是认为你错了。《华尔街日报》不可能仅仅因为字典上说我们可以，就说一个休闲赌徒在赛马场“投资”。</blockquote></p><p> Calling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.</p><p><blockquote>将新手投机者称为“投资者”是营销人员助长过度交易的最有力方式之一。</blockquote></p><p> Ina recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”</p><p><blockquote>在最近的Instagram帖子中，一位名叫拉娜·罗迪斯(Lana Rhoades)的前色情明星穿着——嗯，大部分是穿着——比基尼，举着似乎是格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》。据IMDb.com报道，她主演了《Tushy》和《Make Me Meow》等视频。</blockquote></p><p> In her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.</p><p><blockquote>在她被近180万人“点赞”的帖子中，罗迪斯宣布她将推广一种名为PAWGCoin的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> The currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)</p><p><blockquote>该货币的网站称，这枚硬币是为“那些向发达的后躯致敬的人”准备的。（我得到可靠消息，PAWG代表胖屁股白人女孩。）</blockquote></p><p> PAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.</p><p><blockquote>据追踪此类数字货币的网站Poocoin.io称，自Rhoades女士6月初开始推广PAWGcoin以来，PAWGcoin已上涨约900%。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”</p><p><blockquote>罗迪斯女士在推特上写道“我每天早上也阅读《华尔街日报》”，但记者无法联系到她置评。PAWGcoin的网站鼓励访问者“立即投资”。</blockquote></p><p> In Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.</p><p><blockquote>在罗迪斯的Instagram帖子中，她举着一本打开的《聪明的投资者》，封面是颠倒的。她似乎是闭着眼睛读的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147474880","content_text":"Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.\n\nI’ve had it.\nThe Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.\nIf you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.\nWhenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.\nYou’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.\nOf course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%areinvestors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.\nAn investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.\nThe word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.\nNevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”\nHe wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)\n“If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”\nGraham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.\nIn that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”\nHowever, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”\nMost investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.\nIf you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.\nTake speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.\nI think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.\n“ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”\nI hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.\nCalling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.\nIna recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”\nIn her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.\nThe currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)\nPAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.\nMs. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”\nIn Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133215251,"gmtCreate":1621752654573,"gmtModify":1631892788952,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","listText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","text":"[Serious]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133215251","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":955,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133044191,"gmtCreate":1621676008613,"gmtModify":1631892788963,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","listText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","text":"[Serious]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133044191","repostId":"1174075999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197538955,"gmtCreate":1621472607677,"gmtModify":1631892788974,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","listText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","text":"[Serious]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197538955","repostId":"1102503477","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102503477","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621436985,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102503477?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Is the Stock Market Falling? Here Are 3 Reasons.<blockquote>股市为何下跌？这里有三个原因。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102503477","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stocks are selling off largely on higher-than-expected inflation—a negative for stock valuations, wh","content":"<p>Stocks&nbsp;are selling off largely on higher-than-expected inflation—a negative for stock valuations, which are already high.</p><p><blockquote>股市抛售主要是由于通胀高于预期——这对已经很高的股票估值不利。</blockquote></p><p> All three major U.S. indexes are down in recent trading, with the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;falling 462 points, or 1.4%, th&nbsp;eS&amp;P 500&nbsp;dropping 1.2%, and the&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;declining 0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>美国三大股指近期均下跌，其中道琼斯工业平均指数下跌462点，跌幅1.4%，标准普尔500指数下跌1.2%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Inflation is still scaring investors.</b>Input prices in the United Kingdom’s producer-price index rose 9.9% year over year in April, higher than the expected 4.4% rise. Such an increase in costs makes it likely that companies will raise prices, which would cause high consumer inflation, a&nbsp;dynamic recently seen in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.通胀仍在吓唬投资者。</b>英国4月份生产者价格指数的投入价格同比上涨9.9%，高于预期的4.4%。成本的增加使得企业很可能会提高价格，从而导致消费者高通胀，这是美国最近出现的一种动态。</blockquote></p><p> If inflation runs hot enough, the Federal Reserve could take actions that would raise interest rates—and higher rates reduce stock valuations because they erode the present value of future cash flows. “Inflation fears continue to grip markets,” writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.</p><p><blockquote>如果通胀足够高，美联储可能会采取加息行动——而更高的利率会降低股票估值，因为它们会侵蚀未来现金流的现值。Sevens Report Research创始人Tom Essaye写道：“通胀担忧继续困扰市场。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The Fed’s minutes will be published Wednesday.</b>The latest inflation fears come the same day the Fed releases its minutes from its most recent meeting. Investors are looking for cues that the central bank is considering reducing the size of its bond-purchasing program, which would mean less money moving into bonds, lowering their prices and lifting their yields. “The worst would be hearing whispers on tapering [reducing purchases],” write&nbsp;sIpek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. “Any tightening on the Fed end would be a punch to the market’s face.”</p><p><blockquote><b>2.美联储会议纪要将于周三公布。</b>最新的通胀担忧出现在美联储发布最近一次会议纪要的同一天。投资者正在寻找央行正在考虑缩减债券购买计划规模的迹象，这将意味着流入债券的资金减少，从而降低债券价格并提高收益率。瑞士银行高级分析师sIpek Ozkardeskaya写道：“最糟糕的情况是听到有关缩减（减少购买）的传言。”“美联储方面的任何紧缩措施都将是对市场的一记重击。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Stock valuations are already high.</b>This all comes as stocks were expensive to begin with, with the average forward price/earnings ratio on the S&amp;P 500 entering the day a touch above 21 times. That multiple could drop 10% to 20% this year, according to Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley.</p><p><blockquote><b>3、股票估值已经很高。</b>这一切都发生在股票一开始就很昂贵的时候，标普500的平均远期市盈率进入当天略高于21倍。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊表示，今年这一市盈率可能会下降10%至20%。</blockquote></p><p> The high valuations have been driven, in part, by a&nbsp;high degree of investor optimism on economic demand and the general direction of the stock market. Another sign of the optimism: Short interest on the S&amp;P 500—the percent of the entire index that investors hold as short positions—is at 2.5%, according to&nbsp;Wells Fargo&nbsp;data, down from 3.4% since the end of 2017. “Negative sentiment (short interest) on the average S&amp;P 500 stock remains at historic lows,” writes Chris Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo.</p><p><blockquote>高估值的部分原因是投资者对经济需求和股市大方向的高度乐观。乐观情绪的另一个迹象是：根据富国银行的数据，标普500的空头利息（投资者作为空头头寸持有的整个指数的百分比）为2.5%，低于2017年底以来的3.4%。富国银行股票策略主管Chris Harvey写道：“标普500股票平均价格的负面情绪（空头兴趣）仍处于历史低点。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Is the Stock Market Falling? Here Are 3 Reasons.<blockquote>股市为何下跌？这里有三个原因。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Is the Stock Market Falling? Here Are 3 Reasons.<blockquote>股市为何下跌？这里有三个原因。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-19 23:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks&nbsp;are selling off largely on higher-than-expected inflation—a negative for stock valuations, which are already high.</p><p><blockquote>股市抛售主要是由于通胀高于预期——这对已经很高的股票估值不利。</blockquote></p><p> All three major U.S. indexes are down in recent trading, with the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;falling 462 points, or 1.4%, th&nbsp;eS&amp;P 500&nbsp;dropping 1.2%, and the&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;declining 0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>美国三大股指近期均下跌，其中道琼斯工业平均指数下跌462点，跌幅1.4%，标准普尔500指数下跌1.2%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Inflation is still scaring investors.</b>Input prices in the United Kingdom’s producer-price index rose 9.9% year over year in April, higher than the expected 4.4% rise. Such an increase in costs makes it likely that companies will raise prices, which would cause high consumer inflation, a&nbsp;dynamic recently seen in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.通胀仍在吓唬投资者。</b>英国4月份生产者价格指数的投入价格同比上涨9.9%，高于预期的4.4%。成本的增加使得企业很可能会提高价格，从而导致消费者高通胀，这是美国最近出现的一种动态。</blockquote></p><p> If inflation runs hot enough, the Federal Reserve could take actions that would raise interest rates—and higher rates reduce stock valuations because they erode the present value of future cash flows. “Inflation fears continue to grip markets,” writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.</p><p><blockquote>如果通胀足够高，美联储可能会采取加息行动——而更高的利率会降低股票估值，因为它们会侵蚀未来现金流的现值。Sevens Report Research创始人Tom Essaye写道：“通胀担忧继续困扰市场。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The Fed’s minutes will be published Wednesday.</b>The latest inflation fears come the same day the Fed releases its minutes from its most recent meeting. Investors are looking for cues that the central bank is considering reducing the size of its bond-purchasing program, which would mean less money moving into bonds, lowering their prices and lifting their yields. “The worst would be hearing whispers on tapering [reducing purchases],” write&nbsp;sIpek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. “Any tightening on the Fed end would be a punch to the market’s face.”</p><p><blockquote><b>2.美联储会议纪要将于周三公布。</b>最新的通胀担忧出现在美联储发布最近一次会议纪要的同一天。投资者正在寻找央行正在考虑缩减债券购买计划规模的迹象，这将意味着流入债券的资金减少，从而降低债券价格并提高收益率。瑞士银行高级分析师sIpek Ozkardeskaya写道：“最糟糕的情况是听到有关缩减（减少购买）的传言。”“美联储方面的任何紧缩措施都将是对市场的一记重击。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Stock valuations are already high.</b>This all comes as stocks were expensive to begin with, with the average forward price/earnings ratio on the S&amp;P 500 entering the day a touch above 21 times. That multiple could drop 10% to 20% this year, according to Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley.</p><p><blockquote><b>3、股票估值已经很高。</b>这一切都发生在股票一开始就很昂贵的时候，标普500的平均远期市盈率进入当天略高于21倍。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊表示，今年这一市盈率可能会下降10%至20%。</blockquote></p><p> The high valuations have been driven, in part, by a&nbsp;high degree of investor optimism on economic demand and the general direction of the stock market. Another sign of the optimism: Short interest on the S&amp;P 500—the percent of the entire index that investors hold as short positions—is at 2.5%, according to&nbsp;Wells Fargo&nbsp;data, down from 3.4% since the end of 2017. “Negative sentiment (short interest) on the average S&amp;P 500 stock remains at historic lows,” writes Chris Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo.</p><p><blockquote>高估值的部分原因是投资者对经济需求和股市大方向的高度乐观。乐观情绪的另一个迹象是：根据富国银行的数据，标普500的空头利息（投资者作为空头头寸持有的整个指数的百分比）为2.5%，低于2017年底以来的3.4%。富国银行股票策略主管Chris Harvey写道：“标普500股票平均价格的负面情绪（空头兴趣）仍处于历史低点。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-is-the-stock-market-falling-here-are-3-reasons-51621435990?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-is-the-stock-market-falling-here-are-3-reasons-51621435990?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102503477","content_text":"Stocks are selling off largely on higher-than-expected inflation—a negative for stock valuations, which are already high.\nAll three major U.S. indexes are down in recent trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 462 points, or 1.4%, th eS&P 500 dropping 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite declining 0.9%.\n1. Inflation is still scaring investors.Input prices in the United Kingdom’s producer-price index rose 9.9% year over year in April, higher than the expected 4.4% rise. Such an increase in costs makes it likely that companies will raise prices, which would cause high consumer inflation, a dynamic recently seen in the U.S.\nIf inflation runs hot enough, the Federal Reserve could take actions that would raise interest rates—and higher rates reduce stock valuations because they erode the present value of future cash flows. “Inflation fears continue to grip markets,” writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.\n2. The Fed’s minutes will be published Wednesday.The latest inflation fears come the same day the Fed releases its minutes from its most recent meeting. Investors are looking for cues that the central bank is considering reducing the size of its bond-purchasing program, which would mean less money moving into bonds, lowering their prices and lifting their yields. “The worst would be hearing whispers on tapering [reducing purchases],” write sIpek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. “Any tightening on the Fed end would be a punch to the market’s face.”\n3. Stock valuations are already high.This all comes as stocks were expensive to begin with, with the average forward price/earnings ratio on the S&P 500 entering the day a touch above 21 times. That multiple could drop 10% to 20% this year, according to Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley.\nThe high valuations have been driven, in part, by a high degree of investor optimism on economic demand and the general direction of the stock market. Another sign of the optimism: Short interest on the S&P 500—the percent of the entire index that investors hold as short positions—is at 2.5%, according to Wells Fargo data, down from 3.4% since the end of 2017. “Negative sentiment (short interest) on the average S&P 500 stock remains at historic lows,” writes Chris Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":826,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196224853,"gmtCreate":1621060449372,"gmtModify":1631892788985,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Sad]&nbsp;","listText":"[Sad]&nbsp;","text":"[Sad]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196224853","repostId":"2135069756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198612894,"gmtCreate":1620955253318,"gmtModify":1631892789001,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","listText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","text":"[Serious]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198612894","repostId":"1196862271","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196862271","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620919313,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196862271?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-13 23:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Last Two Times This Hit, Stocks Dropped 20% and 50%, Respectively<blockquote>上两次股市分别下跌了20%和50%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196862271","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In our last article, I outlined how the rise in inflation has slammed Tech stocks lower.\nBy way of a","content":"<p>In our last article, I outlined how the rise in inflation has slammed Tech stocks lower.</p><p><blockquote>在我们的上一篇文章中，我概述了通胀上升如何导致科技股下跌。</blockquote></p><p> By way of a quick review, Tech, as represented by the NASDAQ is highly sensitive to inflation on an inverse relationship: when inflation rises, Tech stocks collapse and when inflation falls, Tech stocks erupt higher.</p><p><blockquote>快速回顾一下，以纳斯达克为代表的科技股对通胀高度敏感，呈反比关系：当通胀上升时，科技股暴跌，当通胀下降时，科技股飙升。</blockquote></p><p> The reason for this is that much of Tech investing is based on growth rates. And if bond yields rise as a result of inflation, bonds become more attractive as an investment, taking away from the appeal of Tech.</p><p><blockquote>原因是大部分科技投资都是基于增长率。如果债券收益率因通货膨胀而上升，债券作为一种投资就会变得更具吸引力，从而削弱科技的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> As I noted yesterday. as inflation entered the financial system in 2020 and began to accelerate in 2021, Tech stocks have struggled. You can see this in the chart below (red rectangle).</p><p><blockquote>正如我昨天提到的。随着通胀在2020年进入金融体系并在2021年开始加速，科技股陷入困境。您可以在下面的图表中看到这一点（红色矩形）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6366a605a86374ef9af9de07ae828fd4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So, we know that Tech is going to struggle going forward as inflation heats up. But what about the broader market like the S&amp;P 500? Will it collapse too?</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们知道，随着通胀升温，科技将难以前进。但是像标普500这样的大盘呢？它也会崩溃吗？</blockquote></p><p> To figure that out, let’s take a look at the last two inflationary scares in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>为了弄清楚这一点，让我们来看看美国最近两次通胀恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> The most recent scare occurred in 2010-2011. At that time, the Fed was pretty quick on the uptake and decided to allow its QE 2 program (the cause of the inflationary spike) to end.</p><p><blockquote>最近一次恐慌发生在2010-2011年。当时，美联储很快就采取了行动，并决定结束其QE 2计划（通胀飙升的原因）。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed then waited several months before introducing any new monetary programs. And when it did introduce one, it didn’t involve money printing (instead the Fed used the proceeds from Treasury sales to buy long-date Treasuries through a process called Operation Twist). This was a kind of stealth tightening.</p><p><blockquote>美联储随后等待了几个月才推出任何新的货币计划。当它真的推出时，它并不涉及印钞（相反，美联储通过一个名为“扭曲操作”的过程使用国债销售收益购买长期国债）。这是一种隐形收紧。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks didn’t like this, collapsing nearly 20%.</p><p><blockquote>股市不喜欢这样，暴跌近20%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fdf95bc30276d330c4bd7a5f62b10d2\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"376\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Bear in mind, that was a relatively minor inflationary scare. During the last legitimate inflationary storm in the 1970s-1980s.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，这是一次相对较小的通胀恐慌。在20世纪70-80年代最后一次合理的通胀风暴期间。</blockquote></p><p> During that mess, the Fed was forced to be MUCH more aggressive with its tightening, embarking on two aggressive tightening schedules. It’s worth noting that this triggered two SEVERE recessions (shaded areas).</p><p><blockquote>在这场混乱中，美联储被迫更加积极地收紧货币政策，启动了两项激进的紧缩计划。值得注意的是，这引发了两次严重的衰退（阴影区域）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f6ed1ada17beb2066d0017b576e64cc\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This IMPLODED the stock market, resulting in a roughly 50% decline over the course of 18 months.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38c35b81a872044b03ce49014d5e46\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"376\"></p><p><blockquote>这导致股市崩溃，导致18个月内下跌约50%。</blockquote></p><p> So, what will it be this time? Will the Fed engage in a stealth taper as was the case in 2011… or will it tighten monetary policy aggressively as it did in the 1970s and 1980s?</p><p><blockquote>那么，这次会是什么呢？美联储会像2011年那样进行秘密缩减……还是会像上世纪七八十年代那样大幅收紧货币政策？</blockquote></p><p> We’ll address that in our next article.</p><p><blockquote>我们将在下一篇文章中讨论这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> in the meantime, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation&nbsp;<b>pay you</b>&nbsp;as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，我们刚刚发布了一份特别投资报告，内容涉及可以用来制造通货膨胀的五种秘密投资<b>付给你</b>随着它在未来几个月席卷金融体系。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Last Two Times This Hit, Stocks Dropped 20% and 50%, Respectively<blockquote>上两次股市分别下跌了20%和50%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Last Two Times This Hit, Stocks Dropped 20% and 50%, Respectively<blockquote>上两次股市分别下跌了20%和50%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 23:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In our last article, I outlined how the rise in inflation has slammed Tech stocks lower.</p><p><blockquote>在我们的上一篇文章中，我概述了通胀上升如何导致科技股下跌。</blockquote></p><p> By way of a quick review, Tech, as represented by the NASDAQ is highly sensitive to inflation on an inverse relationship: when inflation rises, Tech stocks collapse and when inflation falls, Tech stocks erupt higher.</p><p><blockquote>快速回顾一下，以纳斯达克为代表的科技股对通胀高度敏感，呈反比关系：当通胀上升时，科技股暴跌，当通胀下降时，科技股飙升。</blockquote></p><p> The reason for this is that much of Tech investing is based on growth rates. And if bond yields rise as a result of inflation, bonds become more attractive as an investment, taking away from the appeal of Tech.</p><p><blockquote>原因是大部分科技投资都是基于增长率。如果债券收益率因通货膨胀而上升，债券作为一种投资就会变得更具吸引力，从而削弱科技的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> As I noted yesterday. as inflation entered the financial system in 2020 and began to accelerate in 2021, Tech stocks have struggled. You can see this in the chart below (red rectangle).</p><p><blockquote>正如我昨天提到的。随着通胀在2020年进入金融体系并在2021年开始加速，科技股陷入困境。您可以在下面的图表中看到这一点（红色矩形）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6366a605a86374ef9af9de07ae828fd4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So, we know that Tech is going to struggle going forward as inflation heats up. But what about the broader market like the S&amp;P 500? Will it collapse too?</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们知道，随着通胀升温，科技将难以前进。但是像标普500这样的大盘呢？它也会崩溃吗？</blockquote></p><p> To figure that out, let’s take a look at the last two inflationary scares in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>为了弄清楚这一点，让我们来看看美国最近两次通胀恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> The most recent scare occurred in 2010-2011. At that time, the Fed was pretty quick on the uptake and decided to allow its QE 2 program (the cause of the inflationary spike) to end.</p><p><blockquote>最近一次恐慌发生在2010-2011年。当时，美联储很快就采取了行动，并决定结束其QE 2计划（通胀飙升的原因）。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed then waited several months before introducing any new monetary programs. And when it did introduce one, it didn’t involve money printing (instead the Fed used the proceeds from Treasury sales to buy long-date Treasuries through a process called Operation Twist). This was a kind of stealth tightening.</p><p><blockquote>美联储随后等待了几个月才推出任何新的货币计划。当它真的推出时，它并不涉及印钞（相反，美联储通过一个名为“扭曲操作”的过程使用国债销售收益购买长期国债）。这是一种隐形收紧。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks didn’t like this, collapsing nearly 20%.</p><p><blockquote>股市不喜欢这样，暴跌近20%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fdf95bc30276d330c4bd7a5f62b10d2\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"376\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Bear in mind, that was a relatively minor inflationary scare. During the last legitimate inflationary storm in the 1970s-1980s.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，这是一次相对较小的通胀恐慌。在20世纪70-80年代最后一次合理的通胀风暴期间。</blockquote></p><p> During that mess, the Fed was forced to be MUCH more aggressive with its tightening, embarking on two aggressive tightening schedules. It’s worth noting that this triggered two SEVERE recessions (shaded areas).</p><p><blockquote>在这场混乱中，美联储被迫更加积极地收紧货币政策，启动了两项激进的紧缩计划。值得注意的是，这引发了两次严重的衰退（阴影区域）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f6ed1ada17beb2066d0017b576e64cc\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This IMPLODED the stock market, resulting in a roughly 50% decline over the course of 18 months.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38c35b81a872044b03ce49014d5e46\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"376\"></p><p><blockquote>这导致股市崩溃，导致18个月内下跌约50%。</blockquote></p><p> So, what will it be this time? Will the Fed engage in a stealth taper as was the case in 2011… or will it tighten monetary policy aggressively as it did in the 1970s and 1980s?</p><p><blockquote>那么，这次会是什么呢？美联储会像2011年那样进行秘密缩减……还是会像上世纪七八十年代那样大幅收紧货币政策？</blockquote></p><p> We’ll address that in our next article.</p><p><blockquote>我们将在下一篇文章中讨论这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> in the meantime, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation&nbsp;<b>pay you</b>&nbsp;as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，我们刚刚发布了一份特别投资报告，内容涉及可以用来制造通货膨胀的五种秘密投资<b>付给你</b>随着它在未来几个月席卷金融体系。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-05-13/last-two-times-hit-stocks-dropped-20-and-50-respectively\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-05-13/last-two-times-hit-stocks-dropped-20-and-50-respectively","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196862271","content_text":"In our last article, I outlined how the rise in inflation has slammed Tech stocks lower.\nBy way of a quick review, Tech, as represented by the NASDAQ is highly sensitive to inflation on an inverse relationship: when inflation rises, Tech stocks collapse and when inflation falls, Tech stocks erupt higher.\nThe reason for this is that much of Tech investing is based on growth rates. And if bond yields rise as a result of inflation, bonds become more attractive as an investment, taking away from the appeal of Tech.\nAs I noted yesterday. as inflation entered the financial system in 2020 and began to accelerate in 2021, Tech stocks have struggled. You can see this in the chart below (red rectangle).\nSo, we know that Tech is going to struggle going forward as inflation heats up. But what about the broader market like the S&P 500? Will it collapse too?\nTo figure that out, let’s take a look at the last two inflationary scares in the U.S.\nThe most recent scare occurred in 2010-2011. At that time, the Fed was pretty quick on the uptake and decided to allow its QE 2 program (the cause of the inflationary spike) to end.\nThe Fed then waited several months before introducing any new monetary programs. And when it did introduce one, it didn’t involve money printing (instead the Fed used the proceeds from Treasury sales to buy long-date Treasuries through a process called Operation Twist). This was a kind of stealth tightening.\nStocks didn’t like this, collapsing nearly 20%.\n\nBear in mind, that was a relatively minor inflationary scare. During the last legitimate inflationary storm in the 1970s-1980s.\nDuring that mess, the Fed was forced to be MUCH more aggressive with its tightening, embarking on two aggressive tightening schedules. It’s worth noting that this triggered two SEVERE recessions (shaded areas).\n\nThis IMPLODED the stock market, resulting in a roughly 50% decline over the course of 18 months.\nSo, what will it be this time? Will the Fed engage in a stealth taper as was the case in 2011… or will it tighten monetary policy aggressively as it did in the 1970s and 1980s?\nWe’ll address that in our next article.\nin the meantime, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193854314,"gmtCreate":1620781085238,"gmtModify":1631885999569,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">$Coca-Cola(KO)$</a>[Great]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">$Coca-Cola(KO)$</a>[Great]&nbsp;","text":"$Coca-Cola(KO)$[Great]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193854314","repostId":"2134693810","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199888224,"gmtCreate":1620694989568,"gmtModify":1631892789005,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Spurting]&nbsp;","listText":"[Spurting]&nbsp;","text":"[Spurting]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199888224","repostId":"2134551566","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":328839615,"gmtCreate":1615510763237,"gmtModify":1703490181732,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Have a position in Nio, but the EV sector is becoming more competitive with new entry players. I hope that Nio will be able to stand out with their battery swapping tech and do well in the future [保佑]&nbsp;","listText":"Have a position in Nio, but the EV sector is becoming more competitive with new entry players. I hope that Nio will be able to stand out with their battery swapping tech and do well in the future [保佑]&nbsp;","text":"Have a position in Nio, but the EV sector is becoming more competitive with new entry players. I hope that Nio will be able to stand out with their battery swapping tech and do well in the future [保佑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328839615","repostId":"2118824979","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":329533527,"gmtCreate":1615256648569,"gmtModify":1703486345893,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is ARK’s&nbsp;ETF on a discount?&nbsp;","listText":"Is ARK’s&nbsp;ETF on a discount?&nbsp;","text":"Is ARK’s ETF on a discount?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329533527","repostId":"2118978106","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347011978,"gmtCreate":1618448961594,"gmtModify":1634292881390,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting read.&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting read.&nbsp;","text":"Interesting read.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347011978","repostId":"1181372898","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369254843,"gmtCreate":1614051148082,"gmtModify":1634551389170,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Wanted to buy and hold for long term but can’t help feeling uncertain in this drop 😢 Will continue to hold cause I believe in NIO’s fundamentals. Hope I’m right on this.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Wanted to buy and hold for long term but can’t help feeling uncertain in this drop 😢 Will continue to hold cause I believe in NIO’s fundamentals. Hope I’m right on this.&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Wanted to buy and hold for long term but can’t help feeling uncertain in this drop 😢 Will continue to hold cause I believe in NIO’s fundamentals. Hope I’m right on this.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e33181bd9a76862d86e9cf42cf5bd59c","width":"1242","height":"2001"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369254843","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371532231,"gmtCreate":1618960057523,"gmtModify":1634289675176,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Surprised]&nbsp;","listText":"[Surprised]&nbsp;","text":"[Surprised]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371532231","repostId":"1103986621","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382297285,"gmtCreate":1613449313747,"gmtModify":1634553636697,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dividend stock?&nbsp;","listText":"Dividend stock?&nbsp;","text":"Dividend stock?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382297285","repostId":"1114634078","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376424861,"gmtCreate":1619143583553,"gmtModify":1634288224833,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How big is the impact?&nbsp;","listText":"How big is the impact?&nbsp;","text":"How big is the impact?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376424861","repostId":"1134258835","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134258835","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619143430,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134258835?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-23 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AAPL After Hours: Will Capital Gains Tax Derail Apple Stock?<blockquote>苹果公司盘后：资本利得税会让苹果股票脱轨吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134258835","media":"The Street","summary":"Apple stock dipped yet again, this time on news that President Joe Biden could propose an increase t","content":"<p>  Apple stock dipped yet again, this time on news that President Joe Biden could propose an increase to capital gains taxes. Here is why AAPL could be impacted most.  It has not been a calm few days for Apple stock. Shares dipped on Thursday, April 22: -1.2% vs. the S&amp;P 500's and the Nasdaq's -0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价再次下跌，这次是因为有消息称总统乔·拜登可能提议增加资本利得税。这就是为什么苹果公司可能受到最大的影响。对于苹果股票来说，这几天并不平静。4月22日星期四，股价下跌：-1.2%，而标普500和纳斯达克的股价下跌-0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> AAPL has fizzled just aheadof the company's earnings week, after enjoying a 10% rally in the first half of April. In fact, each of Apple's daily gains have been followed by a daily loss since April 8, in seesaw fashion.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL在4月上半月上涨10%后，在公司财报周前夕失败了。事实上，自4月8日以来，苹果的每一次每日上涨之后都会出现每日下跌，呈跷跷板式下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Below, the Apple Maven briefly debates the key reason for weakness in Apple this Thursday: a potential increase in the capital gains tax rate for households that earn more than $1 million per year.</p><p><blockquote>下面，苹果专家简要讨论了本周四苹果疲软的关键原因：年收入超过100万美元的家庭的资本利得税率可能会提高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple news of the day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果每日新闻</b></blockquote></p><p> To be fair, Apple-specific news also surfaced on Thursday. For example, the App Storeremainsat center stage, this time due to speculations that the company could \"build out its ad business with a second type of ad slot\" within the platform.</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，苹果特有的消息也在周四浮出水面。例如，应用商店仍然处于中心位置，这一次是因为人们猜测该公司可以在平台内“通过第二种类型的广告时段来发展其广告业务”。</blockquote></p><p> But none of what the Apple Mavenanticipated could move Apple stock on April 22mattered much compared to news on the tax front. Bloombergreportedthat the Joe Biden administration could introduce legislation to increase the capital gains tax rate to as much as 39.6% on certain individuals, a climb from 20%.</p><p><blockquote>但与税收方面的消息相比，这位苹果专家在4月22日预测的苹果股价走势都无关紧要。彭博社报道称，乔·拜登政府可能会提出立法，将某些个人的资本利得税率从20%提高至39.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Tax hikes on corporations and wealthy taxpayers were a cornerstone of President Joe Biden'scampaign for the White House. While Thursday's developments were still bearish for the markets, it is hard to argue that they were unexpected.</p><p><blockquote>对企业和富裕纳税人增税是乔·拜登总统入主白宫的基石。尽管周四的事态发展仍然对市场不利，但很难说它们出乎意料。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why it matters to Apple stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它对苹果股票很重要</b></blockquote></p><p> Higher capital gains taxes, if approved and implemented, would mean lower after-tax gains for investors across the broad. Due to lower return expectations, it is understandable that the broad indices would have declined, as they did on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>更高的资本利得税如果获得批准并实施，将意味着广大投资者的税后收益下降。由于回报预期较低，大盘指数下跌是可以理解的，就像周四一样。</blockquote></p><p> But Apple shares and other Big Tech names could suffer more than the average stock in the short term. Apple had its share price increase in value by an impressive 240% since 2019, beating the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq by a lot. Many investors who bought the stock in the last 30 months could be sitting on quite a bit of unrealized gains.</p><p><blockquote>但苹果股票和其他大型科技公司的股票在短期内可能会遭受比平均股票更大的损失。自2019年以来，苹果的股价上涨了240%，令人印象深刻，远远超过了标普500和纳斯达克。许多在过去30个月内购买该股票的投资者可能会坐拥相当多未实现的收益。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9373c1e139e1310298c6cf5ed9f53de\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"354\"><span>AAPL stock price action, Jan 2019 to Apr 2021</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AAPL股价走势，2019年1月至2021年4月</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Should wealthy Apple shareholders have a chance to lock in capital gains at the current 20% tax rate by selling the stock now, they may be tempted to do so&nbsp;– even if they choose to reenter the position later. This is probably where selling pressures could come from, in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>如果富有的苹果股东有机会通过现在出售股票以当前20%的税率锁定资本收益，他们可能会忍不住这样做——即使他们选择稍后重新入仓。这可能是短期内抛售压力的来源。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key metrics on Apple stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股票的关键指标</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple stock continues to spin its wheels in the past few days. Here is a look at some of Apple shares' key metrics:</p><p><blockquote>过去几天，苹果股价继续上涨。以下是苹果股票的一些关键指标：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Down 1% for the year vs. the S&amp;P 500's 11% and the Nasdaq's 7% gains.</li>  <li>Down around 8% from the January peak of $143 per share.</li>  <li>Worth about $2.22 trillion, still the most valuable US-based company.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>全年下跌1%，而标普500上涨11%，纳斯达克上涨7%。</li><li>较1月份每股143美元的峰值下跌约8%。</li><li>价值约2.22万亿美元，仍然是最有价值的美国公司。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AAPL After Hours: Will Capital Gains Tax Derail Apple Stock?<blockquote>苹果公司盘后：资本利得税会让苹果股票脱轨吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAAPL After Hours: Will Capital Gains Tax Derail Apple Stock?<blockquote>苹果公司盘后：资本利得税会让苹果股票脱轨吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-23 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Apple stock dipped yet again, this time on news that President Joe Biden could propose an increase to capital gains taxes. Here is why AAPL could be impacted most.  It has not been a calm few days for Apple stock. Shares dipped on Thursday, April 22: -1.2% vs. the S&amp;P 500's and the Nasdaq's -0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价再次下跌，这次是因为有消息称总统乔·拜登可能提议增加资本利得税。这就是为什么苹果公司可能受到最大的影响。对于苹果股票来说，这几天并不平静。4月22日星期四，股价下跌：-1.2%，而标普500和纳斯达克的股价下跌-0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> AAPL has fizzled just aheadof the company's earnings week, after enjoying a 10% rally in the first half of April. In fact, each of Apple's daily gains have been followed by a daily loss since April 8, in seesaw fashion.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL在4月上半月上涨10%后，在公司财报周前夕失败了。事实上，自4月8日以来，苹果的每一次每日上涨之后都会出现每日下跌，呈跷跷板式下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Below, the Apple Maven briefly debates the key reason for weakness in Apple this Thursday: a potential increase in the capital gains tax rate for households that earn more than $1 million per year.</p><p><blockquote>下面，苹果专家简要讨论了本周四苹果疲软的关键原因：年收入超过100万美元的家庭的资本利得税率可能会提高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple news of the day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果每日新闻</b></blockquote></p><p> To be fair, Apple-specific news also surfaced on Thursday. For example, the App Storeremainsat center stage, this time due to speculations that the company could \"build out its ad business with a second type of ad slot\" within the platform.</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，苹果特有的消息也在周四浮出水面。例如，应用商店仍然处于中心位置，这一次是因为人们猜测该公司可以在平台内“通过第二种类型的广告时段来发展其广告业务”。</blockquote></p><p> But none of what the Apple Mavenanticipated could move Apple stock on April 22mattered much compared to news on the tax front. Bloombergreportedthat the Joe Biden administration could introduce legislation to increase the capital gains tax rate to as much as 39.6% on certain individuals, a climb from 20%.</p><p><blockquote>但与税收方面的消息相比，这位苹果专家在4月22日预测的苹果股价走势都无关紧要。彭博社报道称，乔·拜登政府可能会提出立法，将某些个人的资本利得税率从20%提高至39.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Tax hikes on corporations and wealthy taxpayers were a cornerstone of President Joe Biden'scampaign for the White House. While Thursday's developments were still bearish for the markets, it is hard to argue that they were unexpected.</p><p><blockquote>对企业和富裕纳税人增税是乔·拜登总统入主白宫的基石。尽管周四的事态发展仍然对市场不利，但很难说它们出乎意料。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why it matters to Apple stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它对苹果股票很重要</b></blockquote></p><p> Higher capital gains taxes, if approved and implemented, would mean lower after-tax gains for investors across the broad. Due to lower return expectations, it is understandable that the broad indices would have declined, as they did on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>更高的资本利得税如果获得批准并实施，将意味着广大投资者的税后收益下降。由于回报预期较低，大盘指数下跌是可以理解的，就像周四一样。</blockquote></p><p> But Apple shares and other Big Tech names could suffer more than the average stock in the short term. Apple had its share price increase in value by an impressive 240% since 2019, beating the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq by a lot. Many investors who bought the stock in the last 30 months could be sitting on quite a bit of unrealized gains.</p><p><blockquote>但苹果股票和其他大型科技公司的股票在短期内可能会遭受比平均股票更大的损失。自2019年以来，苹果的股价上涨了240%，令人印象深刻，远远超过了标普500和纳斯达克。许多在过去30个月内购买该股票的投资者可能会坐拥相当多未实现的收益。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9373c1e139e1310298c6cf5ed9f53de\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"354\"><span>AAPL stock price action, Jan 2019 to Apr 2021</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AAPL股价走势，2019年1月至2021年4月</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Should wealthy Apple shareholders have a chance to lock in capital gains at the current 20% tax rate by selling the stock now, they may be tempted to do so&nbsp;– even if they choose to reenter the position later. This is probably where selling pressures could come from, in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>如果富有的苹果股东有机会通过现在出售股票以当前20%的税率锁定资本收益，他们可能会忍不住这样做——即使他们选择稍后重新入仓。这可能是短期内抛售压力的来源。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key metrics on Apple stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股票的关键指标</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple stock continues to spin its wheels in the past few days. Here is a look at some of Apple shares' key metrics:</p><p><blockquote>过去几天，苹果股价继续上涨。以下是苹果股票的一些关键指标：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Down 1% for the year vs. the S&amp;P 500's 11% and the Nasdaq's 7% gains.</li>  <li>Down around 8% from the January peak of $143 per share.</li>  <li>Worth about $2.22 trillion, still the most valuable US-based company.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>全年下跌1%，而标普500上涨11%，纳斯达克上涨7%。</li><li>较1月份每股143美元的峰值下跌约8%。</li><li>价值约2.22万亿美元，仍然是最有价值的美国公司。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/aapl-after-hours-capital-tax-derail-apple\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/aapl-after-hours-capital-tax-derail-apple","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134258835","content_text":"Apple stock dipped yet again, this time on news that President Joe Biden could propose an increase to capital gains taxes. Here is why AAPL could be impacted most.\n\nIt has not been a calm few days for Apple stock. Shares dipped on Thursday, April 22: -1.2% vs. the S&P 500's and the Nasdaq's -0.9%.\nAAPL has fizzled just aheadof the company's earnings week, after enjoying a 10% rally in the first half of April. In fact, each of Apple's daily gains have been followed by a daily loss since April 8, in seesaw fashion.\nBelow, the Apple Maven briefly debates the key reason for weakness in Apple this Thursday: a potential increase in the capital gains tax rate for households that earn more than $1 million per year.\nApple news of the day\nTo be fair, Apple-specific news also surfaced on Thursday. For example, the App Storeremainsat center stage, this time due to speculations that the company could \"build out its ad business with a second type of ad slot\" within the platform.\nBut none of what the Apple Mavenanticipated could move Apple stock on April 22mattered much compared to news on the tax front. Bloombergreportedthat the Joe Biden administration could introduce legislation to increase the capital gains tax rate to as much as 39.6% on certain individuals, a climb from 20%.\nTax hikes on corporations and wealthy taxpayers were a cornerstone of President Joe Biden'scampaign for the White House. While Thursday's developments were still bearish for the markets, it is hard to argue that they were unexpected.\nWhy it matters to Apple stock\nHigher capital gains taxes, if approved and implemented, would mean lower after-tax gains for investors across the broad. Due to lower return expectations, it is understandable that the broad indices would have declined, as they did on Thursday.\nBut Apple shares and other Big Tech names could suffer more than the average stock in the short term. Apple had its share price increase in value by an impressive 240% since 2019, beating the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq by a lot. Many investors who bought the stock in the last 30 months could be sitting on quite a bit of unrealized gains.\nAAPL stock price action, Jan 2019 to Apr 2021\nShould wealthy Apple shareholders have a chance to lock in capital gains at the current 20% tax rate by selling the stock now, they may be tempted to do so – even if they choose to reenter the position later. This is probably where selling pressures could come from, in the near term.\nKey metrics on Apple stock\nApple stock continues to spin its wheels in the past few days. Here is a look at some of Apple shares' key metrics:\n\nDown 1% for the year vs. the S&P 500's 11% and the Nasdaq's 7% gains.\nDown around 8% from the January peak of $143 per share.\nWorth about $2.22 trillion, still the most valuable US-based company.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355615132,"gmtCreate":1617066611426,"gmtModify":1634522849838,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment :)&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment :)&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355615132","repostId":"1179631957","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352238021,"gmtCreate":1616977546763,"gmtModify":1634523381564,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$[捂脸]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaafac3d55391e0f9ca354b63ba64727","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352238021","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363843866,"gmtCreate":1614128387855,"gmtModify":1634551078273,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sharp rebound by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>from 42 to 50 yesterday but still down 3% overall. Will the EV sector continue to head downwards? Or is the rebound signifying a near&nbsp;end to the bear market?&nbsp;","listText":"Sharp rebound by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>from 42 to 50 yesterday but still down 3% overall. Will the EV sector continue to head downwards? Or is the rebound signifying a near&nbsp;end to the bear market?&nbsp;","text":"Sharp rebound by $NIO Inc.(NIO)$from 42 to 50 yesterday but still down 3% overall. Will the EV sector continue to head downwards? Or is the rebound signifying a near end to the bear market?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363843866","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1072,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349688185,"gmtCreate":1617604598047,"gmtModify":1634297637767,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[正经]&nbsp;","listText":"[正经]&nbsp;","text":"[正经]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349688185","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":199888224,"gmtCreate":1620694989568,"gmtModify":1631892789005,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Spurting]&nbsp;","listText":"[Spurting]&nbsp;","text":"[Spurting]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199888224","repostId":"2134551566","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354150974,"gmtCreate":1617153316498,"gmtModify":1634522390331,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354150974","repostId":"1163996400","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324002348,"gmtCreate":1615941566584,"gmtModify":1703495257524,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting read.","listText":"Interesting read.","text":"Interesting read.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324002348","repostId":"1184825941","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184825941","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615909414,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184825941?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-16 23:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warning: The Fed is About to Blow Up the Bond Market<blockquote>警告：美联储即将炸毁债市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184825941","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Inflation expectations continue to soar.\nThe US 5-year Breakeven Rate just hit 2.6%. Granted I’m not","content":"<p>Inflation expectations continue to soar.</p><p><blockquote>通胀预期持续飙升。</blockquote></p><p> The US 5-year Breakeven Rate just hit 2.6%. Granted I’m not a genius Fed official, but what does this image look like to you?</p><p><blockquote>美国5年期盈亏平衡利率刚刚触及2.6%。诚然，我不是一个天才的美联储官员，但你认为这张照片是什么样子的？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76b78caf91c2084c740c5769431b0ab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"193\">Remember, the Fed believes inflation won’t hit even 2% for three more years.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，美联储认为通胀率在未来三年内不会达到2%。</blockquote></p><p> And then there’s the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury which is about to break its multi-decade downtrend for the second time since 1982.</p><p><blockquote>然后是10年期美国国债收益率，该收益率将自1982年以来第二次打破数十年的下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b289fe55d4f63bc90f17a00499d7c14\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"303\">By the way, the first break occurred when the Fed attempted to normalize monetary policy by raising rates and shrinking its balance sheet. THIS breakout is occurring while interest rates are at ZERO and the Fed is running a $125 billion per month QE program!</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，第一次突破发生在美联储试图通过加息和缩表实现货币政策正常化的时候。这一突破发生在利率为零、美联储正在实施每月1250亿美元的QE计划的时候！</blockquote></p><p> Those who believe that all this money printing and subsequent inflation it will unleash means stocks will forever go up need to brush up on their history.</p><p><blockquote>那些认为所有这些印钞和随后将引发的通货膨胀意味着股市将永远上涨的人需要重温一下他们的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks love inflation at first, but that love quickly turns to hate. During the last bout of hot inflation in the 1970s, stocks initially bubbled up before CRASHING nearly 50% in the span of two years, wiping out ALL of their initial gains and then some.</p><p><blockquote>股票一开始喜欢通货膨胀，但这种爱很快就变成了恨。在20世纪70年代的最后一轮通胀中，股市最初出现泡沫，然后在两年内暴跌近50%，抹去了最初的所有涨幅，甚至部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26f125e99cea943113ef9393e0cb49fd\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"303\">As I keep warning, inflation is going to ANNIHILATE investors’ portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>正如我不断警告的那样，通货膨胀将摧毁投资者的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Those who are properly prepared. however, will make literal fortunes.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有适当准备的人。然而，会赚很多钱。</b></blockquote></p><p> On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our&nbsp;<i><b>Stock Market Crash Survival Guide</b></i>&nbsp;to the general public.</p><p><blockquote>在这一点上，如果您担心可能的市场崩盘，我们已经重新开放了我们的<i><b>股市崩盘生存指南</b></i>对公众来说。</blockquote></p><p> Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).</p><p><blockquote>在21页的篇幅中，我们概述了哪些投资在市场崩溃期间表现最佳，以及如何为您的投资组合购买“崩溃保险”（这些工具在2008年获得了三位数的收益）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warning: The Fed is About to Blow Up the Bond Market<blockquote>警告：美联储即将炸毁债市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarning: The Fed is About to Blow Up the Bond Market<blockquote>警告：美联储即将炸毁债市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-16 23:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Inflation expectations continue to soar.</p><p><blockquote>通胀预期持续飙升。</blockquote></p><p> The US 5-year Breakeven Rate just hit 2.6%. Granted I’m not a genius Fed official, but what does this image look like to you?</p><p><blockquote>美国5年期盈亏平衡利率刚刚触及2.6%。诚然，我不是一个天才的美联储官员，但你认为这张照片是什么样子的？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c76b78caf91c2084c740c5769431b0ab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"193\">Remember, the Fed believes inflation won’t hit even 2% for three more years.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，美联储认为通胀率在未来三年内不会达到2%。</blockquote></p><p> And then there’s the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury which is about to break its multi-decade downtrend for the second time since 1982.</p><p><blockquote>然后是10年期美国国债收益率，该收益率将自1982年以来第二次打破数十年的下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b289fe55d4f63bc90f17a00499d7c14\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"303\">By the way, the first break occurred when the Fed attempted to normalize monetary policy by raising rates and shrinking its balance sheet. THIS breakout is occurring while interest rates are at ZERO and the Fed is running a $125 billion per month QE program!</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，第一次突破发生在美联储试图通过加息和缩表实现货币政策正常化的时候。这一突破发生在利率为零、美联储正在实施每月1250亿美元的QE计划的时候！</blockquote></p><p> Those who believe that all this money printing and subsequent inflation it will unleash means stocks will forever go up need to brush up on their history.</p><p><blockquote>那些认为所有这些印钞和随后将引发的通货膨胀意味着股市将永远上涨的人需要重温一下他们的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks love inflation at first, but that love quickly turns to hate. During the last bout of hot inflation in the 1970s, stocks initially bubbled up before CRASHING nearly 50% in the span of two years, wiping out ALL of their initial gains and then some.</p><p><blockquote>股票一开始喜欢通货膨胀，但这种爱很快就变成了恨。在20世纪70年代的最后一轮通胀中，股市最初出现泡沫，然后在两年内暴跌近50%，抹去了最初的所有涨幅，甚至部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26f125e99cea943113ef9393e0cb49fd\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"303\">As I keep warning, inflation is going to ANNIHILATE investors’ portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>正如我不断警告的那样，通货膨胀将摧毁投资者的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Those who are properly prepared. however, will make literal fortunes.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有适当准备的人。然而，会赚很多钱。</b></blockquote></p><p> On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our&nbsp;<i><b>Stock Market Crash Survival Guide</b></i>&nbsp;to the general public.</p><p><blockquote>在这一点上，如果您担心可能的市场崩盘，我们已经重新开放了我们的<i><b>股市崩盘生存指南</b></i>对公众来说。</blockquote></p><p> Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).</p><p><blockquote>在21页的篇幅中，我们概述了哪些投资在市场崩溃期间表现最佳，以及如何为您的投资组合购买“崩溃保险”（这些工具在2008年获得了三位数的收益）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-03-16/warning-fed-about-blow-bond-market\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-03-16/warning-fed-about-blow-bond-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184825941","content_text":"Inflation expectations continue to soar.\nThe US 5-year Breakeven Rate just hit 2.6%. Granted I’m not a genius Fed official, but what does this image look like to you?\nRemember, the Fed believes inflation won’t hit even 2% for three more years.\nAnd then there’s the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury which is about to break its multi-decade downtrend for the second time since 1982.\nBy the way, the first break occurred when the Fed attempted to normalize monetary policy by raising rates and shrinking its balance sheet. THIS breakout is occurring while interest rates are at ZERO and the Fed is running a $125 billion per month QE program!\nThose who believe that all this money printing and subsequent inflation it will unleash means stocks will forever go up need to brush up on their history.\nStocks love inflation at first, but that love quickly turns to hate. During the last bout of hot inflation in the 1970s, stocks initially bubbled up before CRASHING nearly 50% in the span of two years, wiping out ALL of their initial gains and then some.\nAs I keep warning, inflation is going to ANNIHILATE investors’ portfolios.\nThose who are properly prepared. however, will make literal fortunes.\nOn that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.\nWithin its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323647312,"gmtCreate":1615340666136,"gmtModify":1703487580446,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rebounding after a market correction?&nbsp;","listText":"Rebounding after a market correction?&nbsp;","text":"Rebounding after a market correction?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323647312","repostId":"1118673419","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366243740,"gmtCreate":1614496188080,"gmtModify":1703477859041,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>to report on Q4 earnings. Wonder if it will give support to the stock price [疑问]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>to report on Q4 earnings. Wonder if it will give support to the stock price [疑问]&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$to report on Q4 earnings. Wonder if it will give support to the stock price [疑问]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366243740","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":184270983,"gmtCreate":1623717210242,"gmtModify":1631891622860,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","listText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","text":"[Serious]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184270983","repostId":"1171648213","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171648213","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623712621,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171648213?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 07:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Big Tech Antitrust: Will Apple Stock Take A Hit?<blockquote>大型科技反垄断：苹果股票会受到打击吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171648213","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Big Tech is under fire again, as Congress could vote on legislation to limit the market power of App","content":"<p>Big Tech is under fire again, as Congress could vote on legislation to limit the market power of Apple and its peers. Here are the risks, and how Apple stock could be impacted.</p><p><blockquote>大型科技公司再次受到批评，因为国会可能会就限制苹果及其同行市场力量的立法进行投票。以下是风险以及苹果股票可能受到的影响。</blockquote></p><p> If&nbsp;the battle with Epic Games over competitive policy&nbsp;in the App Store was not enough, Apple&nbsp;is now facing another war on the antitrust front. On Friday, a group of Democrat and Republican representatives in Congress introduced a bill aimed at curbing the power of Big Tech.</p><p><blockquote>如果说与Epic Games在App Store竞争政策上的斗争还不够的话，那么苹果现在在反垄断方面面临着另一场战争。周五，国会中的一群民主党和共和党代表提出了一项旨在遏制大型科技公司权力的法案。</blockquote></p><p> On this subject, the Apple Maven discusses three important topics today:</p><p><blockquote>关于这个主题，苹果专家今天讨论了三个重要话题：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>What is this new proposed legislation?</li>  <li>How could the Cupertino company be impacted?</li>  <li>How might Apple stock suffer in the foreseeable future?</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88cebcb0808fb2f3347f35d57bf9af7c\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"900\"><span>Figure 1: Big tech \"FAANG\" group.</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>这项新提议的立法是什么？</li><li>库比蒂诺公司会受到怎样的影响？</li><li>在可预见的未来，苹果股票可能会遭受怎样的损失？</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：大型科技“FAANG”集团。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What is it?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> The most recent “attack” on Big Tech from the federal government’s legislature body&nbsp;came&nbsp;in the form of four proposed bills.</p><p><blockquote>联邦政府立法机构最近对大型科技公司的“攻击”是以四项拟议法案的形式出现的。</blockquote></p><p> Two of them address the issue of companies favoring themselves against competing products and services on their platforms. Think of Amazon ranking their own offerings higher than its competitors’ on&nbsp;amazon.com, or Alphabet displaying their devices first on a search page.</p><p><blockquote>其中两个解决了公司在其平台上偏袒自己而不是竞争产品和服务的问题。想想亚马逊在amazon.com上对自己产品的排名高于竞争对手，或者Alphabet在搜索页面上首先显示他们的设备。</blockquote></p><p> The other two are tangentially related to the first two. One limits Big Tech’s ability to acquire companies that may compete with other vendors on their platforms. The last pertains to users’ rights and ability to transfer their own data to other, even if competing platforms.</p><p><blockquote>另外两个与前两个没有什么关系。一个限制了大型科技公司收购可能在其平台上与其他供应商竞争的公司的能力。最后一个涉及用户将自己的数据传输到其他平台（即使是竞争平台）的权利和能力。</blockquote></p><p> For now, the new legislation is still in the pipeline. Before being considered for a vote on the floor of the House, the proposal would first need to clear the Judiciary Subcommittee. Between now and then, expect lobbying efforts to be deployed to slow the process down or even halt it altogether.</p><p><blockquote>目前，新的立法仍在酝酿中。在考虑在众议院投票之前，该提案首先需要获得司法小组委员会的批准。从现在到那时，预计会有游说努力来减缓甚至完全停止这一进程。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Apple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果面临的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, all FAAMG companies stand to lose from the proposed legislation – including Microsoft, a company that&nbsp;fought&nbsp;its own antitrust war in the 1990s, but that has remained mostly away from the spotlight this time. Which tech company might suffer most is subject to debate.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，所有FAAMG公司都将因拟议的立法而遭受损失，包括微软公司，这家公司在20世纪90年代打过自己的反垄断战争，但这次基本上没有受到关注。哪家科技公司可能遭受的损失最大还存在争议。</blockquote></p><p> Apple would probably “feel the heat” mostly within its services segment. The company has already been accused of being too powerful a gatekeeper of the App Store, a popular application platform through which tens of millions of developers offer their products and services.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可能主要在其服务领域“感受到压力”。该公司已经被指责作为App Store的看门人过于强大，App Store是一个受欢迎的应用程序平台，数千万开发者通过该平台提供产品和服务。</blockquote></p><p> Outside the App Store, it is unclear how Apple might be impacted by the legislation. CEO Tim Cook has made his case clear that Apple is not a monopoly in any of the businesses that it is involved in – from smartphones to personal computers and most, if not all, digital services.</p><p><blockquote>在App Store之外，尚不清楚苹果可能会受到该立法的影响。首席执行官蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)明确表示，苹果并不垄断其涉足的任何业务——从智能手机到个人电脑以及大多数（如果不是全部）数字服务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Nothing new so far</b></p><p><blockquote><b>目前没有什么新鲜事</b></blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, and despite the news having surfaced during trading hours on June 11, Apple stock barely moved in response. AAPL shares ended the trading day up nearly&nbsp;1%, very much at the high for the day and ahead of the S&amp;P 500’s 0.2% gains.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，尽管这一消息在6月11日的交易时间浮出水面，但苹果的股价几乎没有任何反应。苹果公司股价收盘上涨近1%，远高于当天高点，领先于标普500 0.2%的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> In my view, investors have brushed off the news because it is largely aligned with expectations that have been set years ago.Even before the US elections&nbsp;for President and Senators in 2020, it had become clear that the left and right parties in Congress would be united by their desire to limit Big Tech’s power.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，投资者对这一消息不屑一顾，因为它在很大程度上符合多年前设定的预期。甚至在2020年美国总统和参议员选举之前，很明显，国会中的左翼和右翼政党将因限制大型科技公司权力的愿望而团结起来。</blockquote></p><p> I find it unlikely that Apple stock will be swayed primarily by the antitrust efforts in Washington, D.C. – at least for now. Still, I remind investors in Big Tech stocks that antitrust is a key risk to be considered when assessing the investment opportunities in these names.</p><p><blockquote>我发现苹果的股票不太可能主要受到华盛顿特区反垄断努力的影响——至少目前是这样。不过，我提醒大型科技股的投资者，在评估这些股票的投资机会时，反垄断是需要考虑的一个关键风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big Tech Antitrust: Will Apple Stock Take A Hit?<blockquote>大型科技反垄断：苹果股票会受到打击吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig Tech Antitrust: Will Apple Stock Take A Hit?<blockquote>大型科技反垄断：苹果股票会受到打击吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 07:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Big Tech is under fire again, as Congress could vote on legislation to limit the market power of Apple and its peers. Here are the risks, and how Apple stock could be impacted.</p><p><blockquote>大型科技公司再次受到批评，因为国会可能会就限制苹果及其同行市场力量的立法进行投票。以下是风险以及苹果股票可能受到的影响。</blockquote></p><p> If&nbsp;the battle with Epic Games over competitive policy&nbsp;in the App Store was not enough, Apple&nbsp;is now facing another war on the antitrust front. On Friday, a group of Democrat and Republican representatives in Congress introduced a bill aimed at curbing the power of Big Tech.</p><p><blockquote>如果说与Epic Games在App Store竞争政策上的斗争还不够的话，那么苹果现在在反垄断方面面临着另一场战争。周五，国会中的一群民主党和共和党代表提出了一项旨在遏制大型科技公司权力的法案。</blockquote></p><p> On this subject, the Apple Maven discusses three important topics today:</p><p><blockquote>关于这个主题，苹果专家今天讨论了三个重要话题：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>What is this new proposed legislation?</li>  <li>How could the Cupertino company be impacted?</li>  <li>How might Apple stock suffer in the foreseeable future?</li> </ol> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88cebcb0808fb2f3347f35d57bf9af7c\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"900\"><span>Figure 1: Big tech \"FAANG\" group.</span></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>这项新提议的立法是什么？</li><li>库比蒂诺公司会受到怎样的影响？</li><li>在可预见的未来，苹果股票可能会遭受怎样的损失？</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：大型科技“FAANG”集团。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What is it?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> The most recent “attack” on Big Tech from the federal government’s legislature body&nbsp;came&nbsp;in the form of four proposed bills.</p><p><blockquote>联邦政府立法机构最近对大型科技公司的“攻击”是以四项拟议法案的形式出现的。</blockquote></p><p> Two of them address the issue of companies favoring themselves against competing products and services on their platforms. Think of Amazon ranking their own offerings higher than its competitors’ on&nbsp;amazon.com, or Alphabet displaying their devices first on a search page.</p><p><blockquote>其中两个解决了公司在其平台上偏袒自己而不是竞争产品和服务的问题。想想亚马逊在amazon.com上对自己产品的排名高于竞争对手，或者Alphabet在搜索页面上首先显示他们的设备。</blockquote></p><p> The other two are tangentially related to the first two. One limits Big Tech’s ability to acquire companies that may compete with other vendors on their platforms. The last pertains to users’ rights and ability to transfer their own data to other, even if competing platforms.</p><p><blockquote>另外两个与前两个没有什么关系。一个限制了大型科技公司收购可能在其平台上与其他供应商竞争的公司的能力。最后一个涉及用户将自己的数据传输到其他平台（即使是竞争平台）的权利和能力。</blockquote></p><p> For now, the new legislation is still in the pipeline. Before being considered for a vote on the floor of the House, the proposal would first need to clear the Judiciary Subcommittee. Between now and then, expect lobbying efforts to be deployed to slow the process down or even halt it altogether.</p><p><blockquote>目前，新的立法仍在酝酿中。在考虑在众议院投票之前，该提案首先需要获得司法小组委员会的批准。从现在到那时，预计会有游说努力来减缓甚至完全停止这一进程。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Apple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果面临的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, all FAAMG companies stand to lose from the proposed legislation – including Microsoft, a company that&nbsp;fought&nbsp;its own antitrust war in the 1990s, but that has remained mostly away from the spotlight this time. Which tech company might suffer most is subject to debate.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，所有FAAMG公司都将因拟议的立法而遭受损失，包括微软公司，这家公司在20世纪90年代打过自己的反垄断战争，但这次基本上没有受到关注。哪家科技公司可能遭受的损失最大还存在争议。</blockquote></p><p> Apple would probably “feel the heat” mostly within its services segment. The company has already been accused of being too powerful a gatekeeper of the App Store, a popular application platform through which tens of millions of developers offer their products and services.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可能主要在其服务领域“感受到压力”。该公司已经被指责作为App Store的看门人过于强大，App Store是一个受欢迎的应用程序平台，数千万开发者通过该平台提供产品和服务。</blockquote></p><p> Outside the App Store, it is unclear how Apple might be impacted by the legislation. CEO Tim Cook has made his case clear that Apple is not a monopoly in any of the businesses that it is involved in – from smartphones to personal computers and most, if not all, digital services.</p><p><blockquote>在App Store之外，尚不清楚苹果可能会受到该立法的影响。首席执行官蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)明确表示，苹果并不垄断其涉足的任何业务——从智能手机到个人电脑以及大多数（如果不是全部）数字服务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Nothing new so far</b></p><p><blockquote><b>目前没有什么新鲜事</b></blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, and despite the news having surfaced during trading hours on June 11, Apple stock barely moved in response. AAPL shares ended the trading day up nearly&nbsp;1%, very much at the high for the day and ahead of the S&amp;P 500’s 0.2% gains.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，尽管这一消息在6月11日的交易时间浮出水面，但苹果的股价几乎没有任何反应。苹果公司股价收盘上涨近1%，远高于当天高点，领先于标普500 0.2%的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> In my view, investors have brushed off the news because it is largely aligned with expectations that have been set years ago.Even before the US elections&nbsp;for President and Senators in 2020, it had become clear that the left and right parties in Congress would be united by their desire to limit Big Tech’s power.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，投资者对这一消息不屑一顾，因为它在很大程度上符合多年前设定的预期。甚至在2020年美国总统和参议员选举之前，很明显，国会中的左翼和右翼政党将因限制大型科技公司权力的愿望而团结起来。</blockquote></p><p> I find it unlikely that Apple stock will be swayed primarily by the antitrust efforts in Washington, D.C. – at least for now. Still, I remind investors in Big Tech stocks that antitrust is a key risk to be considered when assessing the investment opportunities in these names.</p><p><blockquote>我发现苹果的股票不太可能主要受到华盛顿特区反垄断努力的影响——至少目前是这样。不过，我提醒大型科技股的投资者，在评估这些股票的投资机会时，反垄断是需要考虑的一个关键风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/big-tech-antitrust-will-apple-stock-take-a-hit\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/big-tech-antitrust-will-apple-stock-take-a-hit","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171648213","content_text":"Big Tech is under fire again, as Congress could vote on legislation to limit the market power of Apple and its peers. Here are the risks, and how Apple stock could be impacted.\nIf the battle with Epic Games over competitive policy in the App Store was not enough, Apple is now facing another war on the antitrust front. On Friday, a group of Democrat and Republican representatives in Congress introduced a bill aimed at curbing the power of Big Tech.\nOn this subject, the Apple Maven discusses three important topics today:\n\nWhat is this new proposed legislation?\nHow could the Cupertino company be impacted?\nHow might Apple stock suffer in the foreseeable future?\n\nFigure 1: Big tech \"FAANG\" group.\nWhat is it?\nThe most recent “attack” on Big Tech from the federal government’s legislature body came in the form of four proposed bills.\nTwo of them address the issue of companies favoring themselves against competing products and services on their platforms. Think of Amazon ranking their own offerings higher than its competitors’ on amazon.com, or Alphabet displaying their devices first on a search page.\nThe other two are tangentially related to the first two. One limits Big Tech’s ability to acquire companies that may compete with other vendors on their platforms. The last pertains to users’ rights and ability to transfer their own data to other, even if competing platforms.\nFor now, the new legislation is still in the pipeline. Before being considered for a vote on the floor of the House, the proposal would first need to clear the Judiciary Subcommittee. Between now and then, expect lobbying efforts to be deployed to slow the process down or even halt it altogether.\nRisks to Apple\nIn my opinion, all FAAMG companies stand to lose from the proposed legislation – including Microsoft, a company that fought its own antitrust war in the 1990s, but that has remained mostly away from the spotlight this time. Which tech company might suffer most is subject to debate.\nApple would probably “feel the heat” mostly within its services segment. The company has already been accused of being too powerful a gatekeeper of the App Store, a popular application platform through which tens of millions of developers offer their products and services.\nOutside the App Store, it is unclear how Apple might be impacted by the legislation. CEO Tim Cook has made his case clear that Apple is not a monopoly in any of the businesses that it is involved in – from smartphones to personal computers and most, if not all, digital services.\nNothing new so far\nInterestingly, and despite the news having surfaced during trading hours on June 11, Apple stock barely moved in response. AAPL shares ended the trading day up nearly 1%, very much at the high for the day and ahead of the S&P 500’s 0.2% gains.\nIn my view, investors have brushed off the news because it is largely aligned with expectations that have been set years ago.Even before the US elections for President and Senators in 2020, it had become clear that the left and right parties in Congress would be united by their desire to limit Big Tech’s power.\nI find it unlikely that Apple stock will be swayed primarily by the antitrust efforts in Washington, D.C. – at least for now. Still, I remind investors in Big Tech stocks that antitrust is a key risk to be considered when assessing the investment opportunities in these names.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133215251,"gmtCreate":1621752654573,"gmtModify":1631892788952,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","listText":"[Serious]&nbsp;","text":"[Serious]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133215251","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":955,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379704375,"gmtCreate":1618792951597,"gmtModify":1634290916939,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379704375","repostId":"2128856236","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809232459,"gmtCreate":1627371847571,"gmtModify":1631891622750,"author":{"id":"3574909859269652","authorId":"3574909859269652","name":"LEEQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9d14e1a5f5e174fdc00fc72ed4ba3a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574909859269652","idStr":"3574909859269652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting read.","listText":"Interesting read.","text":"Interesting read.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809232459","repostId":"1139478455","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1139478455","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627370605,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139478455?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 15:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Prepare To Be Disappointed<blockquote>Palantir：做好失望的准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139478455","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWe continue to believe that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We continue to believe that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.</li>  <li>Our analysis shows that Palantir’s fair value is $8.22 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.</li>  <li>The dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of Palantir’s stock anytime soon.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce2494cb75075c64622ebd6b351e43d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1155\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们仍然认为Palantir的上涨空间似乎有限，其未来的增长已经被消化。</li><li>我们的分析显示，Palantir的公允价值为每股8.22美元，较当前市场价格下跌超过60%。</li><li>稀释风险和持续的抛售压力可能会很快阻止Palantir股票的升值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>凯文·迪奇/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir (PLTR) has been underperforming the market in recent weeks and we believe that its stock still has more room to fall. Our analysis shows that Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current levels and several issues are likely going to prevent its stock from appreciating further anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it’s better to avoid Palantir at the current price, as its upside appears to be limited.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir（PLTR）最近几周的表现一直逊于市场，我们认为其股价仍有更大的下跌空间。我们的分析表明，Palantir在目前的水平上被严重高估，一些问题可能会阻止其股票在短期内进一步升值。因此，我们仍然认为最好以当前价格避开Palantir，因为其上涨空间似乎有限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There Are Several Red Flags, Which You Shouldn’t Ignore</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有几个危险信号，你不应该忽视</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir specializes in creating custom software solutions for collecting data for its clients, who are mostly government agencies and public companies. While some might think that Palantir is a young company with lots of potential, the reality is that it’s not a startup, as it has been in the business for almost two decades already, and since that time it has managed to add less than 200 customers. As a result, the company is exposed to a limited pool of organizations, who generate most of the revenues. This is mostly because Palantir doesn’t have a scalable business. The value of the company’s average contract ranges from $5 million to $6 million, which prevents small and medium businesses from using its services. While Palantir tries to tackle this issue by offering its Foundry platform for the commercial sector at attractive terms, it’s still too soon to tell whether it will improve its affordability to most of the third parties and have any major impact on its financials in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir专门为其客户创建用于收集数据的定制软件解决方案，这些客户大多是政府机构和上市公司。虽然有些人可能认为Palantir是一家具有巨大潜力的年轻公司，但事实是它并不是一家初创公司，因为它已经经营了近二十年，从那时起，它已经设法增加了不到200个客户。因此，该公司接触到的组织数量有限，而这些组织创造了大部分收入。这主要是因为Palantir没有可扩展的业务。该公司的平均合同价值从500万美元到600万美元不等，这使得中小型企业无法使用其服务。虽然Palantir试图通过以有吸引力的条款为商业领域提供代工平台来解决这一问题，但现在判断它是否会提高大多数第三方的承受能力并从长远来看对其财务状况产生任何重大影响还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, while bulls might want to deny this, but Palantir operates like a consulting company. The company has a special position of a forward-deployed engineer, who analyzes different processes of potential clients and then explains how Palantir’s software could help them improve their operations. Considering this, it’s safe to say that Palantir doesn’t have a unique business model since its whole proposition is that it can analyze the available data better than others. However, nothing stops new entrants from entering the field and offering similar solutions, and nothing stops organizations' internal IT departments from developing better tools to analyze all of the processes at a more affordable price.</p><p><blockquote>此外，虽然多头可能想否认这一点，但Palantir的运营方式就像一家咨询公司。该公司有一个特殊的职位，即前沿部署工程师，他分析潜在客户的不同流程，然后解释Palantir的软件如何帮助他们改善运营。考虑到这一点，可以肯定地说Palantir没有独特的商业模式，因为它的整个主张是它可以比其他人更好地分析可用数据。然而，没有什么能阻止新进入者进入该领域并提供类似的解决方案，也没有什么能阻止组织的内部IT部门开发更好的工具，以更实惠的价格分析所有流程。</blockquote></p><p> Another downside of Palantir is that despite the increase in margins and gross profit in recent quarters, it never made a profit in its history after being so long in the business. Its operating loss has onlywidenedin recent years from -$600 million in 2018 to -$1.17 billion in 2020, to -$1.22 billion in the last twelve months. This is due to the excessive stock-based compensation program that results in increased expenses and massive dilution, which is something that a lot of bulls tend to ignore. Let’s not forget that the company’s expenses relating to the SBC program increased by around 257% year over year last quarter and were $193 million. At the same time, Palantir already has 1.8 billion shares outstanding, an increase from 1.52 billion shares, which were outstanding at the end of last year. The problem is that the excessive SBC program will continue to be a major issue for the company’s investors since there are still 477 million optionsoutstanding, which will dilute the current shareholders by more than 20% if fully exercised.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的另一个缺点是，尽管最近几个季度利润率和毛利润有所增加，但在从事该业务这么长时间后，它在历史上从未盈利过。近年来，其运营亏损仅从2018年的-6亿美元扩大到2020年的-11.7亿美元，并在过去12个月扩大到-12.2亿美元。这是由于过度的股票薪酬计划导致费用增加和大规模稀释，这是许多多头往往忽视的。我们不要忘记，该公司上季度与SBC计划相关的费用同比增长了约257%，达到1.93亿美元。与此同时，Palantir已拥有18亿股流通股，较去年年底的15.2亿股有所增加。问题是，过度的SBC计划将继续成为公司投资者的一个主要问题，因为仍有4.77亿份期权尚未行使，如果完全行使，将使现有股东稀释20%以上。</blockquote></p><p> For that reason, we continue to believe that Palantir’s stock will continue to be an unattractive investment and it’ll likely continue to underperform the market. It’s already down ~15% since our bearisharticlewas published a month ago and we believe that there’s more room for a depreciation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们仍然认为Palantir的股票将继续是一项没有吸引力的投资，并且可能会继续跑输市场。自一个月前我们的看跌文章发表以来，它已经下跌了约15%，我们认为还有更大的贬值空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/facca499bd702a4193cac4eabbe4a9a2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another reason to be bearish about Palantir is due to the fact that there’s an extreme selling pressure, which is created by the company’s insiders and its CEO in particular, who are constantly dumping their shares on an open market. In July alone insiderssoldin total $63 million worth of Palantir shares, which is only $31 million slightly less than what they sold in Q1 when the lockup period expired. Considering this and the fact that they still have ~10% ownership stake in the company, it’s safe to assume they’ll continue to sell their shares and create an even greater selling pressure, which is likely going to prevent the stock from significantly appreciating from the current levels.</p><p><blockquote>看跌Palantir的另一个原因是存在巨大的抛售压力，这是由公司内部人士，尤其是首席执行官造成的，他们不断在公开市场上抛售股票。仅在7月份，内部人士就出售了总价值6300万美元的Palantir股票，仅比第一季度禁售期到期时出售的股票略少3100万美元。考虑到这一点以及他们仍持有该公司约10%的股权这一事实，可以肯定的是，他们将继续出售股票并造成更大的抛售压力，这可能会阻止该股大幅升值从当前水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> We created a discounted cash flow model to find Palantir’s fair value. The weighted average cost of capital in our model is 6%, while the terminal growth rate is 3%.</p><p><blockquote>我们创建了一个贴现现金流模型来查找Palantir的公允价值。我们模型中的加权平均资本成本为6%，而终端增长率为3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb588ed877784db58cfe10b7d49d6dae\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Capital IQ, Own estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Capital IQ，自己的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After doing all the necessary calculations, our DCF model showed that Palantir’s fair value is $8.47 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.</p><p><blockquote>在进行所有必要的计算后，我们的DCF模型显示Palantir的公允价值为每股8.47美元，较当前市场价格下跌超过60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9988abd16861dfad80d5febd22b2c1fb\" tg-width=\"404\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Own estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：自己的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For relative valuation, we compared Palantir to eight other companies from the tech industry and the SaaS niche in particular. By looking at the numbers below, we could safely say that Palantir is extremely overvalued to others, especially since its EBITDA margin of -72.8% is the worst among its peers, and at a market cap of ~$40 billion, its stock is overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>对于相对估值，我们将Palantir与来自科技行业，特别是SaaS利基市场的其他八家公司进行了比较。通过查看下面的数字，我们可以有把握地说，Palantir对其他人来说被严重高估，特别是因为其EBITDA利润率为-72.8%，是同行中最差的，而且市值约为400亿美元，其股票定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70de8f9f7b52ae29d77492ed21083982\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By consolidating the DCF model and the relative valuation method and giving the former 75% weight in the final analysis, while giving the latter 25$ weight in the final analysis, we concluded that Palantir’s final fair value is $8.22 per share, which is significantly below its current market price of ~$22 per share.</p><p><blockquote>通过合并DCF模型和相对估值法，并在最终分析中给予前者75%的权重，而在最终分析中给予后者25美元的权重，我们得出的结论是，Palantir的最终公允价值为每股8.22美元，明显低于其目前的市场价格约为每股22美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05db90bdfb26c691331c9cdede01a87b\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Own estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：自己的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite its advanced data software solutions, Palantir continues to be an unattractive investment in our opinion and its stock is unlikely to move significantly higher anytime soon. The company doesn’t have a unique proposition at an affordable price on the market and there’s every reason to believe that its expenses will continue to increase in the following years due to the higher inflation and increased competition, while its bottom line will continue to suffer. As a result, despite signing new multi-million contracts from time to time, it’s still hard to justify its ~$40 billion market cap. Considering this, we strongly believe that Palantir is not a value investment at this stage, and not a growth play as well since the dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of its stock anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Palantir拥有先进的数据软件解决方案，但我们认为Palantir仍然是一项没有吸引力的投资，其股价不太可能很快大幅走高。该公司在市场上没有一个价格实惠的独特主张，而且有充分的理由相信，由于通胀上升和竞争加剧，其费用在未来几年将继续增加，而其利润将继续下降。遭受。因此，尽管不时签署数百万美元的新合同，但仍然很难证明其约400亿美元的市值是合理的。考虑到这一点，我们坚信Palantir现阶段不是价值投资，也不是成长型投资，因为稀释风险和持续的抛售压力可能会很快阻止其股票升值。</blockquote></p><p> While we don’t expect the stock to depreciate to its fair value of $8.22 per share in the foreseeable future, a decent decline from the current market price is more than possible, especially since the company already trades at 28 times its revenues and is considered to be overvalued. For that reason, we stick to our opinion that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们预计该股在可预见的未来不会贬值至每股8.22美元的公允价值，但较当前市场价格大幅下跌的可能性很大，特别是因为该公司的交易价格已经是其收入的28倍，并且被认为被高估了。因此，我们坚持认为Palantir的上涨空间似乎有限，其未来增长已经被消化。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Prepare To Be Disappointed<blockquote>Palantir：做好失望的准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Prepare To Be Disappointed<blockquote>Palantir：做好失望的准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 15:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We continue to believe that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.</li>  <li>Our analysis shows that Palantir’s fair value is $8.22 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.</li>  <li>The dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of Palantir’s stock anytime soon.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce2494cb75075c64622ebd6b351e43d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1155\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们仍然认为Palantir的上涨空间似乎有限，其未来的增长已经被消化。</li><li>我们的分析显示，Palantir的公允价值为每股8.22美元，较当前市场价格下跌超过60%。</li><li>稀释风险和持续的抛售压力可能会很快阻止Palantir股票的升值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>凯文·迪奇/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir (PLTR) has been underperforming the market in recent weeks and we believe that its stock still has more room to fall. Our analysis shows that Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current levels and several issues are likely going to prevent its stock from appreciating further anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it’s better to avoid Palantir at the current price, as its upside appears to be limited.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir（PLTR）最近几周的表现一直逊于市场，我们认为其股价仍有更大的下跌空间。我们的分析表明，Palantir在目前的水平上被严重高估，一些问题可能会阻止其股票在短期内进一步升值。因此，我们仍然认为最好以当前价格避开Palantir，因为其上涨空间似乎有限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There Are Several Red Flags, Which You Shouldn’t Ignore</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有几个危险信号，你不应该忽视</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir specializes in creating custom software solutions for collecting data for its clients, who are mostly government agencies and public companies. While some might think that Palantir is a young company with lots of potential, the reality is that it’s not a startup, as it has been in the business for almost two decades already, and since that time it has managed to add less than 200 customers. As a result, the company is exposed to a limited pool of organizations, who generate most of the revenues. This is mostly because Palantir doesn’t have a scalable business. The value of the company’s average contract ranges from $5 million to $6 million, which prevents small and medium businesses from using its services. While Palantir tries to tackle this issue by offering its Foundry platform for the commercial sector at attractive terms, it’s still too soon to tell whether it will improve its affordability to most of the third parties and have any major impact on its financials in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir专门为其客户创建用于收集数据的定制软件解决方案，这些客户大多是政府机构和上市公司。虽然有些人可能认为Palantir是一家具有巨大潜力的年轻公司，但事实是它并不是一家初创公司，因为它已经经营了近二十年，从那时起，它已经设法增加了不到200个客户。因此，该公司接触到的组织数量有限，而这些组织创造了大部分收入。这主要是因为Palantir没有可扩展的业务。该公司的平均合同价值从500万美元到600万美元不等，这使得中小型企业无法使用其服务。虽然Palantir试图通过以有吸引力的条款为商业领域提供代工平台来解决这一问题，但现在判断它是否会提高大多数第三方的承受能力并从长远来看对其财务状况产生任何重大影响还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, while bulls might want to deny this, but Palantir operates like a consulting company. The company has a special position of a forward-deployed engineer, who analyzes different processes of potential clients and then explains how Palantir’s software could help them improve their operations. Considering this, it’s safe to say that Palantir doesn’t have a unique business model since its whole proposition is that it can analyze the available data better than others. However, nothing stops new entrants from entering the field and offering similar solutions, and nothing stops organizations' internal IT departments from developing better tools to analyze all of the processes at a more affordable price.</p><p><blockquote>此外，虽然多头可能想否认这一点，但Palantir的运营方式就像一家咨询公司。该公司有一个特殊的职位，即前沿部署工程师，他分析潜在客户的不同流程，然后解释Palantir的软件如何帮助他们改善运营。考虑到这一点，可以肯定地说Palantir没有独特的商业模式，因为它的整个主张是它可以比其他人更好地分析可用数据。然而，没有什么能阻止新进入者进入该领域并提供类似的解决方案，也没有什么能阻止组织的内部IT部门开发更好的工具，以更实惠的价格分析所有流程。</blockquote></p><p> Another downside of Palantir is that despite the increase in margins and gross profit in recent quarters, it never made a profit in its history after being so long in the business. Its operating loss has onlywidenedin recent years from -$600 million in 2018 to -$1.17 billion in 2020, to -$1.22 billion in the last twelve months. This is due to the excessive stock-based compensation program that results in increased expenses and massive dilution, which is something that a lot of bulls tend to ignore. Let’s not forget that the company’s expenses relating to the SBC program increased by around 257% year over year last quarter and were $193 million. At the same time, Palantir already has 1.8 billion shares outstanding, an increase from 1.52 billion shares, which were outstanding at the end of last year. The problem is that the excessive SBC program will continue to be a major issue for the company’s investors since there are still 477 million optionsoutstanding, which will dilute the current shareholders by more than 20% if fully exercised.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的另一个缺点是，尽管最近几个季度利润率和毛利润有所增加，但在从事该业务这么长时间后，它在历史上从未盈利过。近年来，其运营亏损仅从2018年的-6亿美元扩大到2020年的-11.7亿美元，并在过去12个月扩大到-12.2亿美元。这是由于过度的股票薪酬计划导致费用增加和大规模稀释，这是许多多头往往忽视的。我们不要忘记，该公司上季度与SBC计划相关的费用同比增长了约257%，达到1.93亿美元。与此同时，Palantir已拥有18亿股流通股，较去年年底的15.2亿股有所增加。问题是，过度的SBC计划将继续成为公司投资者的一个主要问题，因为仍有4.77亿份期权尚未行使，如果完全行使，将使现有股东稀释20%以上。</blockquote></p><p> For that reason, we continue to believe that Palantir’s stock will continue to be an unattractive investment and it’ll likely continue to underperform the market. It’s already down ~15% since our bearisharticlewas published a month ago and we believe that there’s more room for a depreciation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们仍然认为Palantir的股票将继续是一项没有吸引力的投资，并且可能会继续跑输市场。自一个月前我们的看跌文章发表以来，它已经下跌了约15%，我们认为还有更大的贬值空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/facca499bd702a4193cac4eabbe4a9a2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another reason to be bearish about Palantir is due to the fact that there’s an extreme selling pressure, which is created by the company’s insiders and its CEO in particular, who are constantly dumping their shares on an open market. In July alone insiderssoldin total $63 million worth of Palantir shares, which is only $31 million slightly less than what they sold in Q1 when the lockup period expired. Considering this and the fact that they still have ~10% ownership stake in the company, it’s safe to assume they’ll continue to sell their shares and create an even greater selling pressure, which is likely going to prevent the stock from significantly appreciating from the current levels.</p><p><blockquote>看跌Palantir的另一个原因是存在巨大的抛售压力，这是由公司内部人士，尤其是首席执行官造成的，他们不断在公开市场上抛售股票。仅在7月份，内部人士就出售了总价值6300万美元的Palantir股票，仅比第一季度禁售期到期时出售的股票略少3100万美元。考虑到这一点以及他们仍持有该公司约10%的股权这一事实，可以肯定的是，他们将继续出售股票并造成更大的抛售压力，这可能会阻止该股大幅升值从当前水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> We created a discounted cash flow model to find Palantir’s fair value. The weighted average cost of capital in our model is 6%, while the terminal growth rate is 3%.</p><p><blockquote>我们创建了一个贴现现金流模型来查找Palantir的公允价值。我们模型中的加权平均资本成本为6%，而终端增长率为3%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb588ed877784db58cfe10b7d49d6dae\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Capital IQ, Own estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Capital IQ，自己的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After doing all the necessary calculations, our DCF model showed that Palantir’s fair value is $8.47 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.</p><p><blockquote>在进行所有必要的计算后，我们的DCF模型显示Palantir的公允价值为每股8.47美元，较当前市场价格下跌超过60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9988abd16861dfad80d5febd22b2c1fb\" tg-width=\"404\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Own estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：自己的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For relative valuation, we compared Palantir to eight other companies from the tech industry and the SaaS niche in particular. By looking at the numbers below, we could safely say that Palantir is extremely overvalued to others, especially since its EBITDA margin of -72.8% is the worst among its peers, and at a market cap of ~$40 billion, its stock is overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>对于相对估值，我们将Palantir与来自科技行业，特别是SaaS利基市场的其他八家公司进行了比较。通过查看下面的数字，我们可以有把握地说，Palantir对其他人来说被严重高估，特别是因为其EBITDA利润率为-72.8%，是同行中最差的，而且市值约为400亿美元，其股票定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70de8f9f7b52ae29d77492ed21083982\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By consolidating the DCF model and the relative valuation method and giving the former 75% weight in the final analysis, while giving the latter 25$ weight in the final analysis, we concluded that Palantir’s final fair value is $8.22 per share, which is significantly below its current market price of ~$22 per share.</p><p><blockquote>通过合并DCF模型和相对估值法，并在最终分析中给予前者75%的权重，而在最终分析中给予后者25美元的权重，我们得出的结论是，Palantir的最终公允价值为每股8.22美元，明显低于其目前的市场价格约为每股22美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05db90bdfb26c691331c9cdede01a87b\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Own estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：自己的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite its advanced data software solutions, Palantir continues to be an unattractive investment in our opinion and its stock is unlikely to move significantly higher anytime soon. The company doesn’t have a unique proposition at an affordable price on the market and there’s every reason to believe that its expenses will continue to increase in the following years due to the higher inflation and increased competition, while its bottom line will continue to suffer. As a result, despite signing new multi-million contracts from time to time, it’s still hard to justify its ~$40 billion market cap. Considering this, we strongly believe that Palantir is not a value investment at this stage, and not a growth play as well since the dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of its stock anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Palantir拥有先进的数据软件解决方案，但我们认为Palantir仍然是一项没有吸引力的投资，其股价不太可能很快大幅走高。该公司在市场上没有一个价格实惠的独特主张，而且有充分的理由相信，由于通胀上升和竞争加剧，其费用在未来几年将继续增加，而其利润将继续下降。遭受。因此，尽管不时签署数百万美元的新合同，但仍然很难证明其约400亿美元的市值是合理的。考虑到这一点，我们坚信Palantir现阶段不是价值投资，也不是成长型投资，因为稀释风险和持续的抛售压力可能会很快阻止其股票升值。</blockquote></p><p> While we don’t expect the stock to depreciate to its fair value of $8.22 per share in the foreseeable future, a decent decline from the current market price is more than possible, especially since the company already trades at 28 times its revenues and is considered to be overvalued. For that reason, we stick to our opinion that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们预计该股在可预见的未来不会贬值至每股8.22美元的公允价值，但较当前市场价格大幅下跌的可能性很大，特别是因为该公司的交易价格已经是其收入的28倍，并且被认为被高估了。因此，我们坚持认为Palantir的上涨空间似乎有限，其未来增长已经被消化。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441334-palantir-prepare-to-be-disappointed\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441334-palantir-prepare-to-be-disappointed","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139478455","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe continue to believe that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.\nOur analysis shows that Palantir’s fair value is $8.22 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.\nThe dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of Palantir’s stock anytime soon.\n\nKevin Dietsch/Getty Images News\nPalantir (PLTR) has been underperforming the market in recent weeks and we believe that its stock still has more room to fall. Our analysis shows that Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current levels and several issues are likely going to prevent its stock from appreciating further anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it’s better to avoid Palantir at the current price, as its upside appears to be limited.\nThere Are Several Red Flags, Which You Shouldn’t Ignore\nPalantir specializes in creating custom software solutions for collecting data for its clients, who are mostly government agencies and public companies. While some might think that Palantir is a young company with lots of potential, the reality is that it’s not a startup, as it has been in the business for almost two decades already, and since that time it has managed to add less than 200 customers. As a result, the company is exposed to a limited pool of organizations, who generate most of the revenues. This is mostly because Palantir doesn’t have a scalable business. The value of the company’s average contract ranges from $5 million to $6 million, which prevents small and medium businesses from using its services. While Palantir tries to tackle this issue by offering its Foundry platform for the commercial sector at attractive terms, it’s still too soon to tell whether it will improve its affordability to most of the third parties and have any major impact on its financials in the long run.\nIn addition, while bulls might want to deny this, but Palantir operates like a consulting company. The company has a special position of a forward-deployed engineer, who analyzes different processes of potential clients and then explains how Palantir’s software could help them improve their operations. Considering this, it’s safe to say that Palantir doesn’t have a unique business model since its whole proposition is that it can analyze the available data better than others. However, nothing stops new entrants from entering the field and offering similar solutions, and nothing stops organizations' internal IT departments from developing better tools to analyze all of the processes at a more affordable price.\nAnother downside of Palantir is that despite the increase in margins and gross profit in recent quarters, it never made a profit in its history after being so long in the business. Its operating loss has onlywidenedin recent years from -$600 million in 2018 to -$1.17 billion in 2020, to -$1.22 billion in the last twelve months. This is due to the excessive stock-based compensation program that results in increased expenses and massive dilution, which is something that a lot of bulls tend to ignore. Let’s not forget that the company’s expenses relating to the SBC program increased by around 257% year over year last quarter and were $193 million. At the same time, Palantir already has 1.8 billion shares outstanding, an increase from 1.52 billion shares, which were outstanding at the end of last year. The problem is that the excessive SBC program will continue to be a major issue for the company’s investors since there are still 477 million optionsoutstanding, which will dilute the current shareholders by more than 20% if fully exercised.\nFor that reason, we continue to believe that Palantir’s stock will continue to be an unattractive investment and it’ll likely continue to underperform the market. It’s already down ~15% since our bearisharticlewas published a month ago and we believe that there’s more room for a depreciation.\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nAnother reason to be bearish about Palantir is due to the fact that there’s an extreme selling pressure, which is created by the company’s insiders and its CEO in particular, who are constantly dumping their shares on an open market. In July alone insiderssoldin total $63 million worth of Palantir shares, which is only $31 million slightly less than what they sold in Q1 when the lockup period expired. Considering this and the fact that they still have ~10% ownership stake in the company, it’s safe to assume they’ll continue to sell their shares and create an even greater selling pressure, which is likely going to prevent the stock from significantly appreciating from the current levels.\nValuation\nWe created a discounted cash flow model to find Palantir’s fair value. The weighted average cost of capital in our model is 6%, while the terminal growth rate is 3%.\nSource: Capital IQ, Own estimates\nAfter doing all the necessary calculations, our DCF model showed that Palantir’s fair value is $8.47 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.\nSource: Own estimates\nFor relative valuation, we compared Palantir to eight other companies from the tech industry and the SaaS niche in particular. By looking at the numbers below, we could safely say that Palantir is extremely overvalued to others, especially since its EBITDA margin of -72.8% is the worst among its peers, and at a market cap of ~$40 billion, its stock is overpriced.\nSource: Capital IQ\nBy consolidating the DCF model and the relative valuation method and giving the former 75% weight in the final analysis, while giving the latter 25$ weight in the final analysis, we concluded that Palantir’s final fair value is $8.22 per share, which is significantly below its current market price of ~$22 per share.\nSource: Own estimates\nTakeaway\nDespite its advanced data software solutions, Palantir continues to be an unattractive investment in our opinion and its stock is unlikely to move significantly higher anytime soon. The company doesn’t have a unique proposition at an affordable price on the market and there’s every reason to believe that its expenses will continue to increase in the following years due to the higher inflation and increased competition, while its bottom line will continue to suffer. As a result, despite signing new multi-million contracts from time to time, it’s still hard to justify its ~$40 billion market cap. Considering this, we strongly believe that Palantir is not a value investment at this stage, and not a growth play as well since the dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of its stock anytime soon.\nWhile we don’t expect the stock to depreciate to its fair value of $8.22 per share in the foreseeable future, a decent decline from the current market price is more than possible, especially since the company already trades at 28 times its revenues and is considered to be overvalued. For that reason, we stick to our opinion that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}