Txxl的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Txxl

Txxl

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2021-12-26

like please~

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2021-12-25

Like please~

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2021-11-07

8

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-11-07

!!

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-11-05

Remember to spend all your attempts!

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-11-04

!!

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-08-27

Not a big deal, overall it has already broken so many highs

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2021-08-23

Pretty comprehensive article. Hope this week is better than last's

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-22

Looking forward to this

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-21

Personally not looking into these but i think companies in these industries will do fine

Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>

2021-08-20

A very volatile week. Might stay away for awhile and just monitor

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-19

Great for Apple in the China Market

Apple Seeing Surging China iPhone Demand, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称苹果看到中国 iPhone 需求激增</blockquote>

2021-08-17

Surprising reversal of S&P

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2021-08-16

Green week ahead?

Nvidia, Tencent,Walmart, Target and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>英伟达、腾讯、沃尔玛、塔吉特等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>

2021-08-15

Like please~ Thanks!

These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>

2021-08-15

The thing is even the apes know that it was overvalued. The point wasnt about the value of the stock but that it was shorted.

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2021-08-13

Good news! Be ready for minor corrections, maybe next week

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2021-08-12

Seems like its holding strong

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-11

Well, it will probably continue with minor corrections

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-10

Not really a bad thing, and the drop was pretty small anyways

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848269772,"gmtCreate":1636002762997,"gmtModify":1636002763726,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574913297541636","idStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"!!","listText":"!!","text":"!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848269772","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":819940823,"gmtCreate":1630029860462,"gmtModify":1704954851896,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574913297541636","idStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not a big deal, overall it has already broken so many highs","listText":"Not a big deal, overall it has already broken so many highs","text":"Not a big deal, overall it has already broken so many highs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819940823","repostId":"2162847016","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835332176,"gmtCreate":1629686897495,"gmtModify":1631883992324,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574913297541636","idStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pretty comprehensive article. Hope this week is better than last's","listText":"Pretty comprehensive article. Hope this week is better than last's","text":"Pretty comprehensive article. Hope this week is better than last's","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835332176","repostId":"2161747692","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832800381,"gmtCreate":1629602341043,"gmtModify":1631889941385,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574913297541636","idStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Looking forward to this","listText":"Looking forward to this","text":"Looking forward to this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832800381","repostId":"2161744379","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836420577,"gmtCreate":1629515942599,"gmtModify":1631889941397,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574913297541636","idStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Personally not looking into these but i think companies in these industries will do fine","listText":"Personally not looking into these but i think companies in these industries will do fine","text":"Personally not looking into these but i think companies in these industries will do fine","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836420577","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SSNLF":"三星电子","NVDA":"英伟达","ON":"安森美半导体","SNPS":"新思科技","TSM":"台积电","ASML":"阿斯麦","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","GOOG":"谷歌","AAPL":"苹果","QCOM":"高通","CDNS":"铿腾电子","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SSNLF":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"ON":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838796289,"gmtCreate":1629427703641,"gmtModify":1631889941409,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574913297541636","idStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"A very volatile week. Might stay away for awhile and just monitor","listText":"A very volatile week. Might stay away for awhile and just monitor","text":"A very volatile week. Might stay away for awhile and just monitor","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838796289","repostId":"2160915795","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":876,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831702351,"gmtCreate":1629345707273,"gmtModify":1631884235312,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574913297541636","idStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great for Apple in the China Market","listText":"Great for Apple in the China Market","text":"Great for Apple in the China Market","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831702351","repostId":"1118856541","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118856541","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629345442,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1118856541?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Seeing Surging China iPhone Demand, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称苹果看到中国 iPhone 需求激增</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118856541","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple is seeing huge demand for iPhones in China, a positive sign as the company heads into the expe","content":"<p>Apple is seeing huge demand for iPhones in China, a positive sign as the company heads into the expected launch of a new version of its flagship product sometime in September.</p><p><blockquote>苹果看到了中国对iPhone的巨大需求，这是一个积极的迹象，因为该公司预计将于9月某个时候推出其旗舰产品的新版本。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty writes that based on disclosures from China’s Academy for Information and Communications Technology, she estimates Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) iPhone shipments in China in July were up 79% on a year-over-year basis, while China’s own handset vendors saw just a 27% increase over the same period. She also&nbsp;estimates that Apple grew its share of the installed base of smartphones in China by 90 basis points in the latest month to 20.7%, a 27-month high. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂-休伯蒂（Katy Huberty）在一份研究报告中写道，根据中国信息通信技术研究院的披露信息，她估计苹果（股票代码：AAPL）7 月份在中国的 iPhone 出货量同比增长了 79%，而中国自己的手机供应商同期仅增长了 27%。她还估计，最近一个月，苹果在中国智能手机装机量中的份额增长了90个基点，达到20.7%，创27个月新高。（基点是百分点的1/100。）</blockquote></p><p> Huberty estimates that both&nbsp;Samsung Electronics&nbsp;and Huawei Technologies lost market share in China in the latest month, with small market-share gains for the domestic phone makers Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi.</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂估计，三星电子和华为技术在最近一个月都失去了在中国的市场份额，国内手机制造商Oppo、Vivo和小米的市场份额略有增长。</blockquote></p><p> She says that the iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro Max are the most popular models in China, but that iPhone 11 sales remain “resilient.”</p><p><blockquote>她说，iPhone 12 和 iPhone 12 Pro Max 是中国最受欢迎的机型，但 iPhone 11 的销量仍然 “有弹性”。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe these data points support our view that the iPhone can see continued shipment strength after the launch of the new iPhone 13 model” this fall, she writes.</p><p><blockquote>“她写道：”我们相信，这些数据点支持了我们的观点，即在今年秋季推出新款 iPhone 13 机型后，iPhone 的出货量可能会持续强劲。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Seeing Surging China iPhone Demand, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称苹果看到中国 iPhone 需求激增</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Seeing Surging China iPhone Demand, Analyst Says<blockquote>分析师称苹果看到中国 iPhone 需求激增</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple is seeing huge demand for iPhones in China, a positive sign as the company heads into the expected launch of a new version of its flagship product sometime in September.</p><p><blockquote>苹果看到了中国对iPhone的巨大需求，这是一个积极的迹象，因为该公司预计将于9月某个时候推出其旗舰产品的新版本。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty writes that based on disclosures from China’s Academy for Information and Communications Technology, she estimates Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) iPhone shipments in China in July were up 79% on a year-over-year basis, while China’s own handset vendors saw just a 27% increase over the same period. She also&nbsp;estimates that Apple grew its share of the installed base of smartphones in China by 90 basis points in the latest month to 20.7%, a 27-month high. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂-休伯蒂（Katy Huberty）在一份研究报告中写道，根据中国信息通信技术研究院的披露信息，她估计苹果（股票代码：AAPL）7 月份在中国的 iPhone 出货量同比增长了 79%，而中国自己的手机供应商同期仅增长了 27%。她还估计，最近一个月，苹果在中国智能手机装机量中的份额增长了90个基点，达到20.7%，创27个月新高。（基点是百分点的1/100。）</blockquote></p><p> Huberty estimates that both&nbsp;Samsung Electronics&nbsp;and Huawei Technologies lost market share in China in the latest month, with small market-share gains for the domestic phone makers Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi.</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂估计，三星电子和华为技术在最近一个月都失去了在中国的市场份额，国内手机制造商Oppo、Vivo和小米的市场份额略有增长。</blockquote></p><p> She says that the iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro Max are the most popular models in China, but that iPhone 11 sales remain “resilient.”</p><p><blockquote>她说，iPhone 12 和 iPhone 12 Pro Max 是中国最受欢迎的机型，但 iPhone 11 的销量仍然 “有弹性”。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe these data points support our view that the iPhone can see continued shipment strength after the launch of the new iPhone 13 model” this fall, she writes.</p><p><blockquote>“她写道：”我们相信，这些数据点支持了我们的观点，即在今年秋季推出新款 iPhone 13 机型后，iPhone 的出货量可能会持续强劲。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-seeing-surging-china-iphone-demand-analyst-says-51629302575?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-seeing-surging-china-iphone-demand-analyst-says-51629302575?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118856541","content_text":"Apple is seeing huge demand for iPhones in China, a positive sign as the company heads into the expected launch of a new version of its flagship product sometime in September.\nIn a research note, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty writes that based on disclosures from China’s Academy for Information and Communications Technology, she estimates Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) iPhone shipments in China in July were up 79% on a year-over-year basis, while China’s own handset vendors saw just a 27% increase over the same period. She also estimates that Apple grew its share of the installed base of smartphones in China by 90 basis points in the latest month to 20.7%, a 27-month high. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)\nHuberty estimates that both Samsung Electronics and Huawei Technologies lost market share in China in the latest month, with small market-share gains for the domestic phone makers Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi.\nShe says that the iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro Max are the most popular models in China, but that iPhone 11 sales remain “resilient.”\n“We believe these data points support our view that the iPhone can see continued shipment strength after the launch of the new iPhone 13 model” this fall, she writes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839660085,"gmtCreate":1629156941747,"gmtModify":1631889941421,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574913297541636","idStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Surprising reversal of S&amp;P","listText":"Surprising reversal of S&amp;P","text":"Surprising reversal of S&P","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839660085","repostId":"2160278866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830562006,"gmtCreate":1629082116405,"gmtModify":1631888653707,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574913297541636","idStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Green week ahead?","listText":"Green week ahead?","text":"Green week ahead?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830562006","repostId":"1129589874","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129589874","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629067868,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129589874?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 06:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia, Tencent,Walmart, Target and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>英伟达、腾讯、沃尔玛、塔吉特等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129589874","media":"Barrons","summary":"It’s the late innings of second-quarter earnings season, with retailers ready to step up to the plate. Walmart and Home Depot report on Tuesday, followed by Lowe’s, Target, and TJX on Wednesday. Kohl’s, Macy’s, BJ’s Wholesale, and L Brands are Thursday’s retail highlights, then Foot Locker closes the week on Friday.The Census Bureau’s July retail sales data for July is also out this week, on Tuesday. Economists on average are forecasting a 0.2% seasonally adjusted increase last month, after a 0.","content":"<p>It’s the late innings of second-quarter earnings season, with retailers ready to step up to the plate. Walmart and Home Depot report on Tuesday, followed by Lowe’s, Target, and TJX on Wednesday.&nbsp;Kohl’s, Macy’s, BJ’s Wholesale, and L Brands are Thursday’s retail highlights, then Foot Locker closes the week on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>现在是第二季度财报季的最后几局，零售商们已经准备好挺身而出。沃尔玛（Walmart）和家得宝（Home Depot）将于周二发布报告，劳氏（Lowe's）、塔吉特（Target）和 TJX 将于周三发布报告。Kohl's、Macy's、BJ's Wholesale 和 L Brands 是周四的零售亮点，Foot Locker 将于周五收盘。</blockquote></p><p> The Census Bureau’s July retail sales data for July is also out this week, on Tuesday. Economists on average are forecasting a&nbsp;0.2% seasonally adjusted increase last month, after a 0.6% rise in June.</p><p><blockquote>人口普查局公布的 7 月份零售销售数据也将于本周二公布。经济学家平均预测，继 6 月份上涨 0.6% 之后，上个月经季节性调整后将增长 0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Major non-retail companies releasing results this week include Pandora and&nbsp;Krispy Kreme&nbsp;on Tuesday, followed by a busy Wednesday:Nvidia,Tencent Holdings,CiscoSystems,Analog Devices,and&nbsp;Lumentum Holdings&nbsp;all report.Applied Materials&nbsp;goes on Thursday and Deere closes the week on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周发布业绩的主要非零售公司包括周二发布业绩的 Pandora 和 Krispy Kreme，随后是繁忙的周三：Nvidia、腾讯控股、思科系统、Analog Devices 和 Lumentum Holdings 均发布报告。应用材料公司将于周四发布业绩，Deere将于周五收盘。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data out this week include several housing-market metrics:&nbsp;The National Association of Home Builders’ NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August on Tuesday and the Census Bureau’s new residential construction report for July on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括几项住房市场指标： 周二公布的全国住宅建筑商协会 NAHB/富国银行 8 月份住房市场指数，以及周三公布的人口普查局 7 月份新的住宅建设报告。</blockquote></p><p> Also on Wednesday, the&nbsp;Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee releases the minutes from its last meeting in late July. Then, the&nbsp;Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for July on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>同样在周三，美联储货币政策委员会将公布 7 月下旬最后一次会议纪要。然后，世界大型企业联合会将于周四发布 7 月份领先经济指数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 8/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>8/16星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> Tencent Music Entertainment Group,Tokyo Electron,and&nbsp;Clear Secure&nbsp;are among the companies holding earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股音乐娱乐集团、东京电子和Clear Secure等公司在评级举行了财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August. The consensus estimate is for a 26.5 reading. That compares with a record high of 43.0 in July, when the general business conditions index rose 26 points.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>纽约银行发布了 8 月份帝国州制造业调查。一致估计读数为26.5。相比之下，7 月份总体商业状况指数上涨了 26 点，创下了 43.0 的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 8/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 8/17</b></blockquote></p><p> BHP, Walmart, Home Depot,Agilent Technologies,Pandora, and Krispy Kreme are among the companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>必和必拓、沃尔玛、家得宝、安捷伦科技、Pandora 和 Krispy Kreme 等公司在评级举办了财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> America’s Car-Mart,Jack Henry &amp; Associates,and&nbsp;La-Z-Boy&nbsp;report financial results after the market closes and will hold earnings calls the following morning, Aug. 18.</p><p><blockquote>America's Car-Mart、Jack Henry &amp; Associates 和 La-Z-Boy 将在收盘后公布财务业绩，并将于次日上午（8 月 18 日）举行财报评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;releases capacity utilization in the industrial sector for July. Consensus calls for a 75.7% reading, little changed from June’s 75.4% reading. Industrial production is seen rising 0.5% from June’s 0.4% seasonally adjusted increase.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>发布7月份工业部门产能利用率。共识评级为 75.7%，与 6 月份的 75.4% 相比变化不大。工业生产预计将比 6 月份经季节性调整后的 0.4% 增长 0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August. Economists forecast an 80 reading, the same as in July. The index is down from its all-time high of 90 set in November.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>住宅建筑商协会发布了8月份的NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。经济学家预测读数为80，与7月份持平。该指数低于 11 月份创下的 90 点的历史高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Federal Reserve Board</b>&nbsp;Chairman Jay Powell will host a virtual town hall with educators and students.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦储备委员会</b>主席杰伊·鲍威尔将与教育工作者和学生一起主持一个虚拟市政厅。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau reports</b>&nbsp;retail sales data for July. Expectations are for a 0.3% seasonally adjusted month-over-month decrease, following a 0.6% rise in June. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.2%, compared with a 1.3% rise in the previous month.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局报告</b>7月份零售销售数据。继 6 月份上涨 0.6% 之后，经季节性调整后，预计环比下降 0.3%。不包括汽车，支出预计增长 0.2%，而上月增长 1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 8/18</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三 8/18</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market</b>&nbsp;Committee releases the minutes from its late-July monetary-policy meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场</b>委员会发布了7月下旬货币政策会议纪要。</blockquote></p><p> Cisco Systems, Lowe’s, Target, TJX, Tencent Holdings,Brinker International,Analog Devices,Synopsys,Lumentum Holdings, and Nvidia host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>思科系统公司、劳氏、塔吉特、TJX、腾讯控股控股公司、Brinker International、Analog Devices、Synopsys、Lumentum Holdings 和 Nvidia 在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau’s</b>new residential construction report for July is expected to show the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts at 1.610 million, down from June’s 1.643 million. Housing starts hit a postpandemic peak of 1.73 million in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>7 月份的新住宅开工报告预计将显示，经季节性调整后的新屋开工年率为 161.0 万套，低于 6 月份的 164.3 万套。3 月份新屋开工量达到疫情后的峰值 173 万套。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 8/19</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 8/19</b></blockquote></p><p> BJ’s Wholesale,<b>L Brands</b>, Applied Materials,Ross Stores,Estée Lauder,Kohl’s, Macy’s,Performance Food Group,Petco Health and Wellness,and Farfetch host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>BJ批发商<b>品牌</b>、Applied Materials、Ross Stores、雅诗兰黛、科尔百货、梅西百货、Performance Food Group、Petco Health and Wellness 和 Farfetch 主办评级盈利会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b>releases its Leading Economic Index for July. The LEI is expected to increase 0.7% month over month, after gaining 0.7% in June.</p><p><blockquote><b>会议委员会</b>发布7月份领先经济指数。继 6 月份上涨 0.7% 后，LEI 预计环比上涨 0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 8/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>8/20星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> Deere and Foot Locker host conference calls to discuss financial results.</p><p><blockquote>Deere和Foot Locker主持会议评级讨论财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia, Tencent,Walmart, Target and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>英伟达、腾讯、沃尔玛、塔吉特等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia, Tencent,Walmart, Target and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>英伟达、腾讯、沃尔玛、塔吉特等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-16 06:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s the late innings of second-quarter earnings season, with retailers ready to step up to the plate. Walmart and Home Depot report on Tuesday, followed by Lowe’s, Target, and TJX on Wednesday.&nbsp;Kohl’s, Macy’s, BJ’s Wholesale, and L Brands are Thursday’s retail highlights, then Foot Locker closes the week on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>现在是第二季度财报季的最后几局，零售商们已经准备好挺身而出。沃尔玛（Walmart）和家得宝（Home Depot）将于周二发布报告，劳氏（Lowe's）、塔吉特（Target）和 TJX 将于周三发布报告。Kohl's、Macy's、BJ's Wholesale 和 L Brands 是周四的零售亮点，Foot Locker 将于周五收盘。</blockquote></p><p> The Census Bureau’s July retail sales data for July is also out this week, on Tuesday. Economists on average are forecasting a&nbsp;0.2% seasonally adjusted increase last month, after a 0.6% rise in June.</p><p><blockquote>人口普查局公布的 7 月份零售销售数据也将于本周二公布。经济学家平均预测，继 6 月份上涨 0.6% 之后，上个月经季节性调整后将增长 0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Major non-retail companies releasing results this week include Pandora and&nbsp;Krispy Kreme&nbsp;on Tuesday, followed by a busy Wednesday:Nvidia,Tencent Holdings,CiscoSystems,Analog Devices,and&nbsp;Lumentum Holdings&nbsp;all report.Applied Materials&nbsp;goes on Thursday and Deere closes the week on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周发布业绩的主要非零售公司包括周二发布业绩的 Pandora 和 Krispy Kreme，随后是繁忙的周三：Nvidia、腾讯控股、思科系统、Analog Devices 和 Lumentum Holdings 均发布报告。应用材料公司将于周四发布业绩，Deere将于周五收盘。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data out this week include several housing-market metrics:&nbsp;The National Association of Home Builders’ NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August on Tuesday and the Census Bureau’s new residential construction report for July on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括几项住房市场指标： 周二公布的全国住宅建筑商协会 NAHB/富国银行 8 月份住房市场指数，以及周三公布的人口普查局 7 月份新的住宅建设报告。</blockquote></p><p> Also on Wednesday, the&nbsp;Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee releases the minutes from its last meeting in late July. Then, the&nbsp;Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for July on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>同样在周三，美联储货币政策委员会将公布 7 月下旬最后一次会议纪要。然后，世界大型企业联合会将于周四发布 7 月份领先经济指数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 8/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>8/16星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> Tencent Music Entertainment Group,Tokyo Electron,and&nbsp;Clear Secure&nbsp;are among the companies holding earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股音乐娱乐集团、东京电子和Clear Secure等公司在评级举行了财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August. The consensus estimate is for a 26.5 reading. That compares with a record high of 43.0 in July, when the general business conditions index rose 26 points.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>纽约银行发布了 8 月份帝国州制造业调查。一致估计读数为26.5。相比之下，7 月份总体商业状况指数上涨了 26 点，创下了 43.0 的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 8/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 8/17</b></blockquote></p><p> BHP, Walmart, Home Depot,Agilent Technologies,Pandora, and Krispy Kreme are among the companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>必和必拓、沃尔玛、家得宝、安捷伦科技、Pandora 和 Krispy Kreme 等公司在评级举办了财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> America’s Car-Mart,Jack Henry &amp; Associates,and&nbsp;La-Z-Boy&nbsp;report financial results after the market closes and will hold earnings calls the following morning, Aug. 18.</p><p><blockquote>America's Car-Mart、Jack Henry &amp; Associates 和 La-Z-Boy 将在收盘后公布财务业绩，并将于次日上午（8 月 18 日）举行财报评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;releases capacity utilization in the industrial sector for July. Consensus calls for a 75.7% reading, little changed from June’s 75.4% reading. Industrial production is seen rising 0.5% from June’s 0.4% seasonally adjusted increase.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>发布7月份工业部门产能利用率。共识评级为 75.7%，与 6 月份的 75.4% 相比变化不大。工业生产预计将比 6 月份经季节性调整后的 0.4% 增长 0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August. Economists forecast an 80 reading, the same as in July. The index is down from its all-time high of 90 set in November.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>住宅建筑商协会发布了8月份的NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。经济学家预测读数为80，与7月份持平。该指数低于 11 月份创下的 90 点的历史高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Federal Reserve Board</b>&nbsp;Chairman Jay Powell will host a virtual town hall with educators and students.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦储备委员会</b>主席杰伊·鲍威尔将与教育工作者和学生一起主持一个虚拟市政厅。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau reports</b>&nbsp;retail sales data for July. Expectations are for a 0.3% seasonally adjusted month-over-month decrease, following a 0.6% rise in June. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.2%, compared with a 1.3% rise in the previous month.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局报告</b>7月份零售销售数据。继 6 月份上涨 0.6% 之后，经季节性调整后，预计环比下降 0.3%。不包括汽车，支出预计增长 0.2%，而上月增长 1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 8/18</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三 8/18</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market</b>&nbsp;Committee releases the minutes from its late-July monetary-policy meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场</b>委员会发布了7月下旬货币政策会议纪要。</blockquote></p><p> Cisco Systems, Lowe’s, Target, TJX, Tencent Holdings,Brinker International,Analog Devices,Synopsys,Lumentum Holdings, and Nvidia host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>思科系统公司、劳氏、塔吉特、TJX、腾讯控股控股公司、Brinker International、Analog Devices、Synopsys、Lumentum Holdings 和 Nvidia 在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau’s</b>new residential construction report for July is expected to show the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts at 1.610 million, down from June’s 1.643 million. Housing starts hit a postpandemic peak of 1.73 million in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>7 月份的新住宅开工报告预计将显示，经季节性调整后的新屋开工年率为 161.0 万套，低于 6 月份的 164.3 万套。3 月份新屋开工量达到疫情后的峰值 173 万套。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 8/19</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 8/19</b></blockquote></p><p> BJ’s Wholesale,<b>L Brands</b>, Applied Materials,Ross Stores,Estée Lauder,Kohl’s, Macy’s,Performance Food Group,Petco Health and Wellness,and Farfetch host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>BJ批发商<b>品牌</b>、Applied Materials、Ross Stores、雅诗兰黛、科尔百货、梅西百货、Performance Food Group、Petco Health and Wellness 和 Farfetch 主办评级盈利会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b>releases its Leading Economic Index for July. The LEI is expected to increase 0.7% month over month, after gaining 0.7% in June.</p><p><blockquote><b>会议委员会</b>发布7月份领先经济指数。继 6 月份上涨 0.7% 后，LEI 预计环比上涨 0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 8/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>8/20星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> Deere and Foot Locker host conference calls to discuss financial results.</p><p><blockquote>Deere和Foot Locker主持会议评级讨论财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-51629054047?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NVDA":"英伟达","TME":"腾讯音乐",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TGT":"塔吉特","WMT":"沃尔玛",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-51629054047?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129589874","content_text":"It’s the late innings of second-quarter earnings season, with retailers ready to step up to the plate. Walmart and Home Depot report on Tuesday, followed by Lowe’s, Target, and TJX on Wednesday. Kohl’s, Macy’s, BJ’s Wholesale, and L Brands are Thursday’s retail highlights, then Foot Locker closes the week on Friday.\nThe Census Bureau’s July retail sales data for July is also out this week, on Tuesday. Economists on average are forecasting a 0.2% seasonally adjusted increase last month, after a 0.6% rise in June.\nMajor non-retail companies releasing results this week include Pandora and Krispy Kreme on Tuesday, followed by a busy Wednesday:Nvidia,Tencent Holdings,CiscoSystems,Analog Devices,and Lumentum Holdings all report.Applied Materials goes on Thursday and Deere closes the week on Friday.\nEconomic data out this week include several housing-market metrics: The National Association of Home Builders’ NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August on Tuesday and the Census Bureau’s new residential construction report for July on Wednesday.\nAlso on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee releases the minutes from its last meeting in late July. Then, the Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for July on Thursday.\nMonday 8/16\nTencent Music Entertainment Group,Tokyo Electron,and Clear Secure are among the companies holding earnings conference calls.\nThe Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August. The consensus estimate is for a 26.5 reading. That compares with a record high of 43.0 in July, when the general business conditions index rose 26 points.\nTuesday 8/17\nBHP, Walmart, Home Depot,Agilent Technologies,Pandora, and Krispy Kreme are among the companies hosting earnings conference calls.\nAmerica’s Car-Mart,Jack Henry & Associates,and La-Z-Boy report financial results after the market closes and will hold earnings calls the following morning, Aug. 18.\nThe Federal Reserve releases capacity utilization in the industrial sector for July. Consensus calls for a 75.7% reading, little changed from June’s 75.4% reading. Industrial production is seen rising 0.5% from June’s 0.4% seasonally adjusted increase.\nThe National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August. Economists forecast an 80 reading, the same as in July. The index is down from its all-time high of 90 set in November.\nFederal Reserve Board Chairman Jay Powell will host a virtual town hall with educators and students.\nThe Census Bureau reports retail sales data for July. Expectations are for a 0.3% seasonally adjusted month-over-month decrease, following a 0.6% rise in June. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.2%, compared with a 1.3% rise in the previous month.\nWednesday 8/18\nThe Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes from its late-July monetary-policy meeting.\nCisco Systems, Lowe’s, Target, TJX, Tencent Holdings,Brinker International,Analog Devices,Synopsys,Lumentum Holdings, and Nvidia host earnings conference calls.\nThe Census Bureau’snew residential construction report for July is expected to show the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts at 1.610 million, down from June’s 1.643 million. Housing starts hit a postpandemic peak of 1.73 million in March.\nThursday 8/19\nBJ’s Wholesale,L Brands, Applied Materials,Ross Stores,Estée Lauder,Kohl’s, Macy’s,Performance Food Group,Petco Health and Wellness,and Farfetch host earnings conference calls.\nThe Conference Boardreleases its Leading Economic Index for July. The LEI is expected to increase 0.7% month over month, after gaining 0.7% in June.\nFriday 8/20\nDeere and Foot Locker host conference calls to discuss financial results.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TME":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"WMT":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"TGT":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830937258,"gmtCreate":1628999454974,"gmtModify":1631889941434,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574913297541636","idStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please~ Thanks!","listText":"Like please~ Thanks!","text":"Like please~ Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830937258","repostId":"1127633167","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127633167","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628997765,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1127633167?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 11:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127633167","media":"Barrons","summary":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors loo","content":"<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资中最流行的流行语之一是 “复利者 ”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike 或 Visa 的成长型投资者寻求确定能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长的公司（最好是两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock&nbsp;that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股票价格应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在5到10年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的 “10 bagger”--回报率是你购买价格 10 倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的笔记和投资专业人士的客户信中充满了复合器的参考资料。许多下一代价值经理，在<i>巴伦</i>五月份的封面故事，正在寻求此类股票，而不是廉价股票的传统价值。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高价。真正的大赢家很少。根据 Durable Capital Partners 的数据，在 10 年的漫长系列中，只有大约 35 家公司的股价每年复合上涨 20% 或更多，导致至少增长了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as&nbsp;Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and&nbsp;Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意坚持使用大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，列出了一份包含 10 只股票的兼收并蓄的名单，其中大多数市值低于 100 亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利 以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的 10 只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th>Company / Ticker</th>    <th>Recent Price</th>    <th>YTD Change</th>    <th>2021E P/E</th>    <th>2021E Price/Sales</th>    <th>2022E P/E</th>    <th>2022E Price/Sales</th>    <th>LT Growth Rate*</th>    <th>Market Value (bil)</th>    <th>Comment</th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Amedysis / AMED</td>    <td>$185.15</td>    <td>-37%</td>    <td>30.2</td>    <td>2.7</td>    <td>27.7</td>    <td>2.4</td>    <td>10.5%</td>    <td>$6.3</td>    <td>Leader in home health care</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amyris / AMRS</td>    <td>13.64</td>    <td>121</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>10.4</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>9.7</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>4.1</td>    <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td>    <td>81.73</td>    <td>-6</td>    <td>19.4</td>    <td>1.3</td>    <td>17.7</td>    <td>1.2</td>    <td>8.6</td>    <td>11.0</td>    <td>Defense-department consultant</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td>    <td>172.76</td>    <td>26</td>    <td>25.8</td>    <td>1.5</td>    <td>22.2</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>18.4</td>    <td>18.2</td>    <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td>    <td>147.15</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>40.9</td>    <td>1.6</td>    <td>15.7</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>6.3</td>    <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td>    <td>197.10</td>    <td>24</td>    <td>45.7</td>    <td>2.6</td>    <td>43.5</td>    <td>2.5</td>    <td>19.3</td>    <td>8.8</td>    <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td>    <td>138.19</td>    <td>74</td>    <td>192.3</td>    <td>28.6</td>    <td>140.8</td>    <td>22.5</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>6.6</td>    <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td>    <td>44.38</td>    <td>-24</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>1.9</td>    <td>1890.3</td>    <td>1.7</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>4.8</td>    <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Trex / TREX</td>    <td>105.94</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>51.9</td>    <td>10.5</td>    <td>43.6</td>    <td>9.3</td>    <td>18.8</td>    <td>12.2</td>    <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Upwork / UPWK</td>    <td>44.31</td>    <td>28</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>11.4</td>    <td>556.8</td>    <td>9.2</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>5.7</td>    <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年市盈率</th><th>2021年价格/销售额</th><th>2022年市盈率</th><th>2022年价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>阿梅迪西斯/阿梅德</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>阿米里斯/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>纳米</td><td>10.4</td><td>纳米</td><td>9.7</td><td>纳</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股 / BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B亨特运输服务 / JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>擅长多式联运</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>纳</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假领域的顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/场地</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>大型园林绿化用品供应商</td></tr><tr><td>外科凝视/凝视</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/固定</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>纳米</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex / Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>合成木地板的顶级制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork / UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>纳米</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>纳</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH的估计是针对截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX 的估计适用于截至 2022 年 7 月和 2023 年 7 月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的每年每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys (AMED) 是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚小盘股成长基金经理丹-科尔预测说：”该行业将进行大规模整合。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移”。</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys 股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍以上。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，削减了 2021 年财务指引，股价约为 185 美元，下跌了近 30%。2021 年盈利预期目前为每股 6.13 美元，低于近 7 美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍然有能力每年实现 10% 的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris（AMRS）是合成生物学领域的领导者。It 粉丝表示，它的机会是以环保的方式取代目前由石化产品、动物和植物制成的一系列产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗，Amyris生产角鲨烷等物质，角鲨烷是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；以及通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为 13 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>七月份对该公司的评价很高。在消费品牌的推动下，Amyris 预计到 2025 年销售额将达到 20 亿美元，高于今年的 4 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“拥有 Amyris 股票的 Pinnacle Associates 公司的投资组合经理兰迪-巴伦（Randy Baron）说：”世界需要清洁化学，而 Amyris 正是创造清洁化学的关键。他认为到 2022 年底，它们的价格可能会达到 75 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府在最近一个财政年度占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务，与政府建立了牢固的联系。其股票交易价格约为 81 美元，收益率为 1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>“T. Rowe Price New Horizons 基金经理乔希-斯宾塞（Josh Spencer）说：”它已经建立了一种强大的、类似合作伙伴关系的文化，并有着长期的稳定增长记录。他认为博思艾伦有能力实现 9% 至 10% 的年收入增长，每年盈利增长 15% 至 16%，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支受到更多限制，该股较 100 美元的峰值下跌了 20%。斯宾塞将此次回调视为买入机会，该股估值不到市盈率的 20 倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the&nbsp;Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B亨特运输服务公司（JBHT）是多式联运货运领域的领导者，多式联运货运涉及卡车在铁路线上的节能运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。过去 20 年里，其股价上涨了 30 倍，最近达到 173 美元。“Durable Capital Partners 首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利-埃伦博根（Henry Ellenbogen）说：”它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司（Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad）的合作关系使其在多式联运货运领域占据了强大的地位。J.B亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还涉足数字货运经纪业务——将卡车司机与航运客户进行匹配。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen 表示，考虑到 2022 年盈利增长前景，该股 2022 年盈利预期的 22 倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有 70 万业主，是一种有弹性的商业模式，拥有可观的费用收入，并且比同行更容易接触到夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>“Baron Focused Growth fund 的经理大卫-巴伦（David Baron）说：”它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。他补充说，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为 145 美元，该公司应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>巴伦认为，根据 2022 年的预测，这些股票的自由现金流收益率为 11%，价格便宜。他表示，该股自 2018 年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能会为股东带来 20% 的年回报。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply（SITE）是美国最大的园林绿化产品供应商，鉴于该公司在高度分散的行业中仅占 13% 的市场份额，因此具有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚大学的科尔说：”它正在有机增长，并有很多收购机会。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股估值约为 197 美元，估值丰富，是 2022 年预计每股收益 4.54 美元的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar Surgical（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于视力问题在全球范围内的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，该镜头已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>“Baillie Gifford 全球经理道格-布罗迪（Doug Brodie）说：”它可以创造大量的销量。“它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼晶状体可在不到一小时的时间内植入，而且不需要摘除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar 股价最近为 138 美元，估值很高，是 2022 年预计销售额的 20 多倍，是 2022 年预计收益的 140 倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix（SFIX）开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“Stitch Fix 持有者 Marathon Partners Equity Management 的首席投资官 Mario Cibelli 说：”这可能是未来的 Nordstrom。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题”。Stitch Fix利用6,000名私人造型师和大量数据，试图识别订户的口味，以产生高满意度，并限制定期发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者担心潜在的流失和公司的最终盈利能力，该公司的股价约为 44 美元，比年初的水平下跌了 60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli 预计收入每年将增长 20% 以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内将成为一项潜在的非常有利可图的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex（TREX）是高端木质甲板替代品的顶级生产商，该甲板由95%的回收材料制成，是一种环保的住宅。该股股价为 105 美元，是 2022 年预期市盈率的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T. Rowe Price 的 Spencer 认为 Trex 物有所值，因为他认为 Trex 可以实现 15% 至 20% 的可持续年收入增长。预计 2022 年盈利将增长约 20%，并在随后几年以类似的速度增长。“他说：”如果把时钟拨快三年，看起来就不会那么贵了。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork（UPWK）是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到了 Baillie Gifford 的 Brodie 的青睐，他说它能提高企业对自由职业者的接受度。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>最近股价在 44 美元左右，并不便宜。Upwork 的估值为 57 亿美元，是今年近 5 亿美元预计销售额的 10 倍多。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于销售快速增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长 30% 以上，2022 年将增长 25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“布罗迪说：”中小型企业更容易接受自由职业者，但大型企业的人力资源部门却对自由职业者嗤之以鼻。Upwork旨在通过审查其自由职业者和提供数千套技能来改变这种看法。“他说：”Upwork 可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 11:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资中最流行的流行语之一是 “复利者 ”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike 或 Visa 的成长型投资者寻求确定能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长的公司（最好是两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock&nbsp;that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股票价格应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在5到10年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的 “10 bagger”--回报率是你购买价格 10 倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的笔记和投资专业人士的客户信中充满了复合器的参考资料。许多下一代价值经理，在<i>巴伦</i>五月份的封面故事，正在寻求此类股票，而不是廉价股票的传统价值。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高价。真正的大赢家很少。根据 Durable Capital Partners 的数据，在 10 年的漫长系列中，只有大约 35 家公司的股价每年复合上涨 20% 或更多，导致至少增长了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as&nbsp;Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and&nbsp;Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意坚持使用大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，列出了一份包含 10 只股票的兼收并蓄的名单，其中大多数市值低于 100 亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利 以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的 10 只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th>Company / Ticker</th>    <th>Recent Price</th>    <th>YTD Change</th>    <th>2021E P/E</th>    <th>2021E Price/Sales</th>    <th>2022E P/E</th>    <th>2022E Price/Sales</th>    <th>LT Growth Rate*</th>    <th>Market Value (bil)</th>    <th>Comment</th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Amedysis / AMED</td>    <td>$185.15</td>    <td>-37%</td>    <td>30.2</td>    <td>2.7</td>    <td>27.7</td>    <td>2.4</td>    <td>10.5%</td>    <td>$6.3</td>    <td>Leader in home health care</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amyris / AMRS</td>    <td>13.64</td>    <td>121</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>10.4</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>9.7</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>4.1</td>    <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td>    <td>81.73</td>    <td>-6</td>    <td>19.4</td>    <td>1.3</td>    <td>17.7</td>    <td>1.2</td>    <td>8.6</td>    <td>11.0</td>    <td>Defense-department consultant</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td>    <td>172.76</td>    <td>26</td>    <td>25.8</td>    <td>1.5</td>    <td>22.2</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>18.4</td>    <td>18.2</td>    <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td>    <td>147.15</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>40.9</td>    <td>1.6</td>    <td>15.7</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>6.3</td>    <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td>    <td>197.10</td>    <td>24</td>    <td>45.7</td>    <td>2.6</td>    <td>43.5</td>    <td>2.5</td>    <td>19.3</td>    <td>8.8</td>    <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td>    <td>138.19</td>    <td>74</td>    <td>192.3</td>    <td>28.6</td>    <td>140.8</td>    <td>22.5</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>6.6</td>    <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td>    <td>44.38</td>    <td>-24</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>1.9</td>    <td>1890.3</td>    <td>1.7</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>4.8</td>    <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Trex / TREX</td>    <td>105.94</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>51.9</td>    <td>10.5</td>    <td>43.6</td>    <td>9.3</td>    <td>18.8</td>    <td>12.2</td>    <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Upwork / UPWK</td>    <td>44.31</td>    <td>28</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>11.4</td>    <td>556.8</td>    <td>9.2</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>5.7</td>    <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年市盈率</th><th>2021年价格/销售额</th><th>2022年市盈率</th><th>2022年价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>阿梅迪西斯/阿梅德</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>阿米里斯/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>纳米</td><td>10.4</td><td>纳米</td><td>9.7</td><td>纳</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股 / BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B亨特运输服务 / JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>擅长多式联运</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>纳</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假领域的顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/场地</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>大型园林绿化用品供应商</td></tr><tr><td>外科凝视/凝视</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/固定</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>纳米</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex / Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>合成木地板的顶级制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork / UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>纳米</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>纳</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH的估计是针对截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX 的估计适用于截至 2022 年 7 月和 2023 年 7 月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的每年每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys (AMED) 是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚小盘股成长基金经理丹-科尔预测说：”该行业将进行大规模整合。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移”。</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys 股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍以上。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，削减了 2021 年财务指引，股价约为 185 美元，下跌了近 30%。2021 年盈利预期目前为每股 6.13 美元，低于近 7 美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍然有能力每年实现 10% 的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris（AMRS）是合成生物学领域的领导者。It 粉丝表示，它的机会是以环保的方式取代目前由石化产品、动物和植物制成的一系列产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗，Amyris生产角鲨烷等物质，角鲨烷是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；以及通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为 13 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>七月份对该公司的评价很高。在消费品牌的推动下，Amyris 预计到 2025 年销售额将达到 20 亿美元，高于今年的 4 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“拥有 Amyris 股票的 Pinnacle Associates 公司的投资组合经理兰迪-巴伦（Randy Baron）说：”世界需要清洁化学，而 Amyris 正是创造清洁化学的关键。他认为到 2022 年底，它们的价格可能会达到 75 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府在最近一个财政年度占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务，与政府建立了牢固的联系。其股票交易价格约为 81 美元，收益率为 1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>“T. Rowe Price New Horizons 基金经理乔希-斯宾塞（Josh Spencer）说：”它已经建立了一种强大的、类似合作伙伴关系的文化，并有着长期的稳定增长记录。他认为博思艾伦有能力实现 9% 至 10% 的年收入增长，每年盈利增长 15% 至 16%，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支受到更多限制，该股较 100 美元的峰值下跌了 20%。斯宾塞将此次回调视为买入机会，该股估值不到市盈率的 20 倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the&nbsp;Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B亨特运输服务公司（JBHT）是多式联运货运领域的领导者，多式联运货运涉及卡车在铁路线上的节能运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。过去 20 年里，其股价上涨了 30 倍，最近达到 173 美元。“Durable Capital Partners 首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利-埃伦博根（Henry Ellenbogen）说：”它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司（Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad）的合作关系使其在多式联运货运领域占据了强大的地位。J.B亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还涉足数字货运经纪业务——将卡车司机与航运客户进行匹配。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen 表示，考虑到 2022 年盈利增长前景，该股 2022 年盈利预期的 22 倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有 70 万业主，是一种有弹性的商业模式，拥有可观的费用收入，并且比同行更容易接触到夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>“Baron Focused Growth fund 的经理大卫-巴伦（David Baron）说：”它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。他补充说，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为 145 美元，该公司应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>巴伦认为，根据 2022 年的预测，这些股票的自由现金流收益率为 11%，价格便宜。他表示，该股自 2018 年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能会为股东带来 20% 的年回报。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply（SITE）是美国最大的园林绿化产品供应商，鉴于该公司在高度分散的行业中仅占 13% 的市场份额，因此具有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚大学的科尔说：”它正在有机增长，并有很多收购机会。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股估值约为 197 美元，估值丰富，是 2022 年预计每股收益 4.54 美元的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar Surgical（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于视力问题在全球范围内的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，该镜头已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>“Baillie Gifford 全球经理道格-布罗迪（Doug Brodie）说：”它可以创造大量的销量。“它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼晶状体可在不到一小时的时间内植入，而且不需要摘除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar 股价最近为 138 美元，估值很高，是 2022 年预计销售额的 20 多倍，是 2022 年预计收益的 140 倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix（SFIX）开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“Stitch Fix 持有者 Marathon Partners Equity Management 的首席投资官 Mario Cibelli 说：”这可能是未来的 Nordstrom。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题”。Stitch Fix利用6,000名私人造型师和大量数据，试图识别订户的口味，以产生高满意度，并限制定期发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者担心潜在的流失和公司的最终盈利能力，该公司的股价约为 44 美元，比年初的水平下跌了 60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli 预计收入每年将增长 20% 以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内将成为一项潜在的非常有利可图的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex（TREX）是高端木质甲板替代品的顶级生产商，该甲板由95%的回收材料制成，是一种环保的住宅。该股股价为 105 美元，是 2022 年预期市盈率的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T. Rowe Price 的 Spencer 认为 Trex 物有所值，因为他认为 Trex 可以实现 15% 至 20% 的可持续年收入增长。预计 2022 年盈利将增长约 20%，并在随后几年以类似的速度增长。“他说：”如果把时钟拨快三年，看起来就不会那么贵了。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork（UPWK）是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到了 Baillie Gifford 的 Brodie 的青睐，他说它能提高企业对自由职业者的接受度。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>最近股价在 44 美元左右，并不便宜。Upwork 的估值为 57 亿美元，是今年近 5 亿美元预计销售额的 10 倍多。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于销售快速增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长 30% 以上，2022 年将增长 25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“布罗迪说：”中小型企业更容易接受自由职业者，但大型企业的人力资源部门却对自由职业者嗤之以鼻。Upwork旨在通过审查其自由职业者和提供数千套技能来改变这种看法。“他说：”Upwork 可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JBHT":"JB Hunt运输服务","UPWK":"Upwork Inc.","TREX":"Trex Co Inc","AMED":"阿米斯医疗","SITE":"SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.","AMRS":"阿米瑞斯","STAA":"STAAR Surgical Company","SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc.","BAH":"博思艾伦咨询公司","VAC":"万豪度假环球"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127633167","content_text":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.\nThe idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock that returns 10 times what you paid for it.\nWall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified in a Barron’s cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.\nTheir search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.\nMany investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and Eli Lilly(LLY).\nBarron’s sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:\nStrong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.\n\n\n\nCompany / Ticker\nRecent Price\nYTD Change\n2021E P/E\n2021E Price/Sales\n2022E P/E\n2022E Price/Sales\nLT Growth Rate*\nMarket Value (bil)\nComment\n\n\n\n\nAmedysis / AMED\n$185.15\n-37%\n30.2\n2.7\n27.7\n2.4\n10.5%\n$6.3\nLeader in home health care\n\n\nAmyris / AMRS\n13.64\n121\nNM\n10.4\nNM\n9.7\nNA\n4.1\nLeading company in synthetic biology\n\n\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH\n81.73\n-6\n19.4\n1.3\n17.7\n1.2\n8.6\n11.0\nDefense-department consultant\n\n\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT\n172.76\n26\n25.8\n1.5\n22.2\n1.4\n18.4\n18.2\nStrong in intermodal freight\n\n\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC\n147.15\n7\n40.9\n1.6\n15.7\n1.4\nNA\n6.3\nTop company in vacation timeshares\n\n\nSiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE\n197.10\n24\n45.7\n2.6\n43.5\n2.5\n19.3\n8.8\nBig supplier of landscaping supplies\n\n\nStaar Surgical / STAA\n138.19\n74\n192.3\n28.6\n140.8\n22.5\n30.0\n6.6\nMaker of implantable lens for myopia\n\n\nStitch Fix / SFIX\n44.38\n-24\nNM\n1.9\n1890.3\n1.7\n30.0\n4.8\nData-driven subscription clothing firm\n\n\nTrex / TREX\n105.94\n27\n51.9\n10.5\n43.6\n9.3\n18.8\n12.2\nTop maker of synthetic wood decking\n\n\nUpwork / UPWK\n44.31\n28\nNM\n11.4\n556.8\n9.2\nNA\n5.7\nOnline clearinghouse for free-lancers\n\n\n\nE=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.\nSource: FactSet\nAmedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.\n“There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”\nAmedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.\nAmyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.\nUsing genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.\nBarron’s wrote favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.\n“The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.\n“It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the Barron’s Roundtable.\nJ.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.\nEllenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.\n“It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.\nThe shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.\nSiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.\n\n“It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.\nThe stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.\nStaar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.\n“It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”\nLenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.\nAt a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.\nStitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.\n“This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.\nIts shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.\nYet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.\nTrex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.\nT. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.\nUpwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.\nThe shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.\nThe investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.\n“Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VAC":0.9,"STAA":0.9,"UPWK":0.9,"AMED":0.9,"TREX":0.9,"JBHT":0.9,"SFIX":0.9,"BAH":0.9,"SITE":0.9,"AMRS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830070207,"gmtCreate":1628996350009,"gmtModify":1631889941445,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574913297541636","idStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The thing is even the apes know that it was overvalued. The point wasnt about the value of the stock but that it was shorted.&nbsp;","listText":"The thing is even the apes know that it was overvalued. The point wasnt about the value of the stock but that it was shorted.&nbsp;","text":"The thing is even the apes know that it was overvalued. The point wasnt about the value of the stock but that it was shorted.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830070207","repostId":"2159145532","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894628237,"gmtCreate":1628823211729,"gmtModify":1631889941459,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574913297541636","idStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good news! Be ready for minor corrections, maybe next week","listText":"Good news! Be ready for minor corrections, maybe next week","text":"Good news! Be ready for minor corrections, maybe next week","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894628237","repostId":"1180393666","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895544368,"gmtCreate":1628759922854,"gmtModify":1631889941470,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574913297541636","idStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Seems like its holding strong","listText":"Seems like its holding strong","text":"Seems like its holding strong","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895544368","repostId":"2158530942","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":897,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892697486,"gmtCreate":1628652892345,"gmtModify":1631889941484,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574913297541636","idStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Well, it will probably continue with minor corrections","listText":"Well, it will probably continue with minor corrections","text":"Well, it will probably continue with minor corrections","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892697486","repostId":"2158035654","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896897753,"gmtCreate":1628566801572,"gmtModify":1633746091466,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574913297541636","idStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not really a bad thing, and the drop was pretty small anyways","listText":"Not really a bad thing, and the drop was pretty small anyways","text":"Not really a bad thing, and the drop was pretty small anyways","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896897753","repostId":"1142685473","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":809150634,"gmtCreate":1627353746828,"gmtModify":1633765795576,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574913297541636","authorIdStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great news","listText":"Great news","text":"Great news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809150634","repostId":"2154964378","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832800381,"gmtCreate":1629602341043,"gmtModify":1631889941385,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574913297541636","authorIdStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Looking forward to this","listText":"Looking forward to this","text":"Looking forward to this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832800381","repostId":"2161744379","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894628237,"gmtCreate":1628823211729,"gmtModify":1631889941459,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574913297541636","authorIdStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good news! Be ready for minor corrections, maybe next week","listText":"Good news! Be ready for minor corrections, maybe next week","text":"Good news! Be ready for minor corrections, maybe next week","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894628237","repostId":"1180393666","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124432081,"gmtCreate":1624778550443,"gmtModify":1633948680834,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574913297541636","authorIdStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Doesnt have the best profit margin ratio","listText":"Doesnt have the best profit margin ratio","text":"Doesnt have the best profit margin ratio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124432081","repostId":"1184001921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184001921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624763737,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1184001921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：库存好，价格不好</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184001921","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新精神的公司之一，引领着电子商务行业和云计算服务。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股一致。</li><li>本文着眼于亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>如今，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）似乎有点定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果 (AAPL) 或微软 (MSFT) 等其他热门股票。好吧，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇文章中，我将分析我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的原因，以帮助你在未来做出更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一件重要的事情——我不是亚马逊方面的专家，而且我很难评估成长型股票。我真的怀疑我是否有能力估计一家公司的未来增长。我通过观察过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来预测未来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法接近于“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推不是很好，因为未来不同于过去——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格在获得大致正确的估值方面做得很好。我总是尽量把我的估值定得低，因为低买高卖赔钱不如低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全裕度</b>意思是买打折的东西……这就是伟大投资的全部秘诀。规则 1 投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊从哪里来钱？亚马逊分为3个部门：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为2个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来很可能会继续保持高增长。在本节中，我查看了亚马逊每个细分市场过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此对未来做出了保守的预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个细分市场的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是 AMZN 的北美业务。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据来自 2018 10-K、2019 10-K 和 2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美能赚多少钱必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内从2000亿美元的收入增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常不可思议的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊的国际业务：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据来自 2018 10-K、2019 10-K 和 2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入增长 20%，营业利润率将有所提高。我认为营业利润率会逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊美国业务相似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，这里是 AWS：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计 AWS 细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预计年收入增长率为25-30%，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，到2025年，云计算行业的CAGR增长率应该约为17.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为 28%，因为 AWS 业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够将成本分摊到更多人身上，从而获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率有可能超过 28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测被加在一起，以帮助我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能会投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购高达50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定的到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>来源：2020 10-K 第 60 页，<i>增加了重点</i>但就我们的目的而言，这句话表明亚马逊在过去 3 年里没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲置现金。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约26B美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可能会看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了 7.7% 的贴现率，因为我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本 (WACC) 就是这样。我假设股权成本为 8%，过去 10 年亚马逊的平均税率约为 20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我用DCF模型找到了亚马逊今天的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部 2 个红色方框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将较高。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到 2025 年，亚马逊的收入将超过 8500 亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据预计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约 5500 亿美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为 3900 亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很容易成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司有多少收入将成为商业利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石框中，我应用贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊似乎被高估了。该模型预测该股可能被高估约 15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来 5 年的年回报率约为 5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在目前的价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我抛出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价”。这背后的想法是，AMZN 股票越便宜，我们期望的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股 2,200 美元的年回报率约为 15%，每股 1,700 美元的年回报率约为 22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但是当股票交易价格接近 3,500 美元时，将买入价设定在 2,000 美元左右是不是似乎不合理？”确实有一点点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能跌破 2,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能会有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1900美元（我希望我当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊似乎被略微高估了，因为它似乎在未来 5 年内提供了约 5% 的年回报率。这并不意味着如果你是长期持有者，你就应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果您正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果你已经关注亚马逊有一段时间了，你想进入亚马逊，现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资股票，我们仍然可以看着亚马逊成为世界上收入最高的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明的家伙。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢你的阅读，我希望你今天过得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：库存好，价格不好</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：库存好，价格不好</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新精神的公司之一，引领着电子商务行业和云计算服务。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股一致。</li><li>本文着眼于亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>如今，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）似乎有点定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果 (AAPL) 或微软 (MSFT) 等其他热门股票。好吧，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇文章中，我将分析我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的原因，以帮助你在未来做出更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一件重要的事情——我不是亚马逊方面的专家，而且我很难评估成长型股票。我真的怀疑我是否有能力估计一家公司的未来增长。我通过观察过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来预测未来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法接近于“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推不是很好，因为未来不同于过去——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格在获得大致正确的估值方面做得很好。我总是尽量把我的估值定得低，因为低买高卖赔钱不如低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全裕度</b>意思是买打折的东西……这就是伟大投资的全部秘诀。规则 1 投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊从哪里来钱？亚马逊分为3个部门：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为2个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来很可能会继续保持高增长。在本节中，我查看了亚马逊每个细分市场过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此对未来做出了保守的预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个细分市场的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是 AMZN 的北美业务。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据来自 2018 10-K、2019 10-K 和 2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美能赚多少钱必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内从2000亿美元的收入增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常不可思议的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊的国际业务：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据来自 2018 10-K、2019 10-K 和 2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入增长 20%，营业利润率将有所提高。我认为营业利润率会逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊美国业务相似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，这里是 AWS：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计 AWS 细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预计年收入增长率为25-30%，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，到2025年，云计算行业的CAGR增长率应该约为17.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为 28%，因为 AWS 业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够将成本分摊到更多人身上，从而获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率有可能超过 28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测被加在一起，以帮助我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能会投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购高达50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定的到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>来源：2020 10-K 第 60 页，<i>增加了重点</i>但就我们的目的而言，这句话表明亚马逊在过去 3 年里没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲置现金。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约26B美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可能会看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了 7.7% 的贴现率，因为我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本 (WACC) 就是这样。我假设股权成本为 8%，过去 10 年亚马逊的平均税率约为 20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我用DCF模型找到了亚马逊今天的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部 2 个红色方框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将较高。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到 2025 年，亚马逊的收入将超过 8500 亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据预计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约 5500 亿美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为 3900 亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很容易成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司有多少收入将成为商业利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石框中，我应用贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊似乎被高估了。该模型预测该股可能被高估约 15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来 5 年的年回报率约为 5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在目前的价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我抛出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价”。这背后的想法是，AMZN 股票越便宜，我们期望的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股 2,200 美元的年回报率约为 15%，每股 1,700 美元的年回报率约为 22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但是当股票交易价格接近 3,500 美元时，将买入价设定在 2,000 美元左右是不是似乎不合理？”确实有一点点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能跌破 2,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能会有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1900美元（我希望我当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊似乎被略微高估了，因为它似乎在未来 5 年内提供了约 5% 的年回报率。这并不意味着如果你是长期持有者，你就应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果您正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果你已经关注亚马逊有一段时间了，你想进入亚马逊，现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资股票，我们仍然可以看着亚马逊成为世界上收入最高的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明的家伙。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢你的阅读，我希望你今天过得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184001921","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.\nThis article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.\nI hope you enjoy.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nToday, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.\nSource: Author\nYou might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.\nIn this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.\nSomething important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.\nThis method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.\nBut after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.\n\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n margin of safety.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n\n\n Rule 1 Investing\n\nThis model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.\nBusiness Model\nWhere does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.\nAs a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.\nAnd later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nI projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.\nHopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.\nHere's a look at Amazon's International segment:\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nFor Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.\nAnd for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:\nSource: Author\nAWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about 17.5% CAGR until 2025.\nAdditionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.\nThese projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.\nCapital Allocation\nHow does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.\nSource: Author\nThe biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.\n\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.\n\n\n Source:2020 10-K page 60,\n emphasis added\n\nBut for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.\nAmazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.\nAmazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.\nValuation\nFirst, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.\nSource: Author\nI used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.\nThis model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.\nRight now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.\nSource: Author\nDown at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.\nSource: Author\nToday, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.\nThese estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.\nDown at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.\nThe model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.\n\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.\nBut the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.\nRecap\nToday, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.\nBut if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.\nEven if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.\nThank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151468536,"gmtCreate":1625102825725,"gmtModify":1633944782168,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574913297541636","authorIdStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"NIO ftw","listText":"NIO ftw","text":"NIO ftw","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151468536","repostId":"1146428391","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":698446493,"gmtCreate":1640512870615,"gmtModify":1640513013621,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574913297541636","authorIdStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like please~","listText":"like please~","text":"like please~","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698446493","repostId":"2193178197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":892697486,"gmtCreate":1628652892345,"gmtModify":1631889941484,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574913297541636","authorIdStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Well, it will probably continue with minor corrections","listText":"Well, it will probably continue with minor corrections","text":"Well, it will probably continue with minor corrections","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892697486","repostId":"2158035654","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807497787,"gmtCreate":1628048361749,"gmtModify":1633754046125,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574913297541636","authorIdStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good news","listText":"Good news","text":"Good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807497787","repostId":"2156312793","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158257048,"gmtCreate":1625152540984,"gmtModify":1633944185834,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574913297541636","authorIdStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Remember to complete the Tiger survey for 500 coins!","listText":"Remember to complete the Tiger survey for 500 coins!","text":"Remember to complete the Tiger survey for 500 coins!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158257048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":698217841,"gmtCreate":1640405079089,"gmtModify":1640405079752,"author":{"id":"3574913297541636","authorId":"3574913297541636","name":"Txxl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8ad0c00f5be402e6e61554b7599f54","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574913297541636","authorIdStr":"3574913297541636"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please~","listText":"Like please~","text":"Like please~","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698217841","repostId":"1156159690","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}