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2021-06-28

Up up up

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2021-06-28

Baba

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2021-06-28

Cheers

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2021-04-13

$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$[得意]

2021-04-01

To the moon

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2021-03-29

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

CFDs - The Dirty Little Secret Behind The Collapse Of Archegos<blockquote>差价合约——Archegos倒闭背后的肮脏小秘密</blockquote>

2021-03-26

Time to buy

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2021-03-25

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ buy the dip

2021-03-25

Time to buy

Why NIO Stock Is Down<blockquote>蔚来股价为何下跌</blockquote>

2021-03-18

$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$go go go

2021-03-16

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point"<blockquote>“我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</blockquote>

2021-03-15

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>

2021-03-15

Go NIO

Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>

2021-03-11

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

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2021-03-11

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ hoping for brighter weeks ahead

2021-03-10

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@胖虎哒哒:Roblox投资者日会议笔记

2021-03-10

Go bull go

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2021-03-09

Good to know

The 24 Best-Loved Stocks on Wall Street and Why That Matters<blockquote>华尔街24只最受欢迎的股票及其重要性</blockquote>

2021-03-09

Good article

How to handle market declines<blockquote>如何应对市场下跌</blockquote>

2021-03-08

$Alibaba(09988)$Well, let's see if Alibaba can bounce back

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up up","listText":"Up up up","text":"Up up 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A17U.SI\">$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A17U.SI\">$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;","text":"$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$[得意]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/972648908aefa42a274bf5f7b249cd44","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345813668","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":357619785,"gmtCreate":1617266546247,"gmtModify":1631891482064,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574925934110012","idStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon","listText":"To the moon","text":"To the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357619785","repostId":"2124022412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355359603,"gmtCreate":1617030222202,"gmtModify":1631891482069,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574925934110012","idStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355359603","repostId":"1193371328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193371328","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617024119,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193371328?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-29 21:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"CFDs - The Dirty Little Secret Behind The Collapse Of Archegos<blockquote>差价合约——Archegos倒闭背后的肮脏小秘密</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193371328","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Stop us if you've heard this one before -Wall Street prime brokers allowed hedge funds to dance whil","content":"<p>Stop us if you've heard this one before -<i>Wall Street prime brokers allowed hedge funds to dance while the music was playing with ever greater leverage in off-exchange and unregulated derivatives... until the first sign of trouble and the whole house of cards comes crashing down in a potentially systemic manner</i>.</p><p><blockquote>如果你以前听过这个，请阻止我们-<i>华尔街大宗经纪商允许对冲基金在场外和不受监管的衍生品杠杆越来越大的同时跳舞...直到出现麻烦的第一个迹象，整个纸牌屋以潜在的系统性方式崩溃</i>.</blockquote></p><p> The bloodbath in various media stocks on Friday has brought light back to one of the dark corners of the equity trading business -<b>so-called contracts-for-differences (CFDs).</b></p><p><blockquote>周五各家媒体股的血洗让股票交易业务的黑暗角落之一重见光明——<b>所谓的差价合约（CFD）。</b></blockquote></p><p> As Bloomberg reports, much of the leverage used by Hwang’s&nbsp;Archegos Capital was provided by banks including&nbsp;Nomura and&nbsp;Credit Suisse -who have most recently admitted huge losses- as<b>CFDs, which are made off exchanges, allow managers like Hwang to amass stakes in publicly traded companies without having to declare their holdings</b>(far in excess of the 5% stakes that require regulatory reporting).</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，Hwang的Archegos Capital使用的大部分杠杆是由野村证券和瑞士信贷等银行提供的——这些银行最近承认遭受了巨大损失——因为<b>在交易所进行的差价合约允许像Hwang这样的经理人积累上市公司的股份，而不必申报他们持有的股份</b>（远远超过需要监管报告的5%股份）。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially,as Bloomberg notes,this means<b>Archegos may never actually have owned most of the underlying securities - if any at all</b>- as the CFD is akin to a privately-arranged (i.e. off exchange and bespoke) futures contract where the differences in the settlement between the open and closing trade prices are cash-settled (there is no delivery of physical goods or securities with CFDs).</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，正如彭博社指出的那样，这意味着<b>Archegos可能从未真正拥有大部分基础证券（如果有的话）</b>-由于差价合约类似于私人安排（即场外及定制）期货合约，其中开盘价与收盘价之间的结算差额以现金结算（差价合约并无交付实物商品或证券）。</blockquote></p><p> What makes the situation worse is that<b>Archegos reportedly took positions in these CFDs with various prime brokers</b>- and because these positions are by their nature not centrally cleared or aggregated, this left prime broker X unaware of their client's exposures with prime broker Y... which in this case was huge.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是<b>据报道，Archegos在多家主要经纪商处持有这些差价合约头寸</b>-由于这些头寸本质上不是集中清算或汇总的，这使得主经纪商X不知道他们的客户在主经纪商Y的风险敞口...在这种情况下，这是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> The leverage Hwang was given made him look like a trading genius as the various positions he took were pumped and pumped (and helped by gamma-squeezers) but now look like a reckless gambling fool as the bets collapsed.</p><p><blockquote>黄禹锡获得的杠杆让他看起来像一个交易天才，因为他持有的各种头寸被抽了又抽（并得到了伽马挤压者的帮助），但现在随着赌注的崩溃，他看起来像一个鲁莽的赌博傻瓜。</blockquote></p><p> CFDs linked to stocks (with a gross market value of around $282 billion at end June 2020) are among bespoke derivatives that investors trade privately between themselves, or over-the-counter, instead of through public exchanges.<b>This is exactly the kind of hidden risk that amplified the losses during the 2008 financial crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>与股票挂钩的差价合约（截至2020年6月底总市值约为2820亿美元）是定制衍生品之一，投资者可以私下交易，或在场外交易，而不是通过公共交易所。<b>这正是2008年金融危机时放大损失的那种隐性风险。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffab65c57ee35df93f6a6087e1136e5b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"321\">AsBloombergnotes,<b>regulators have begun clamping down on CFDs in recent years because they’re concerned the derivatives are too complex and too risky for retail investors,</b>with the European Securities and Markets Authority in 2018&nbsp;restricting&nbsp;the distribution to individuals and capping leverage. In the U.S., CFDs are largely banned for amateur traders... but not for hedge fund managers who are \"sophisticated\"?</p><p><blockquote>正如彭博社指出的那样，<b>监管机构近年来开始打击差价合约，因为他们担心衍生品对散户投资者来说过于复杂且风险太大，</b>欧洲证券和市场管理局在2018年限制了对个人的分配并限制了杠杆。在美国，业余交易者基本上禁止差价合约...但对于“老练”的对冲基金经理来说就不是了？</blockquote></p><p> But,<b>banks still favor them because they can make a large profit without needing to set aside as much capital versus trading actual securities</b>(driven to this opaque market as an unintended consequence of heavy regulation following the 2008 financial crisis).</p><p><blockquote>但是，<b>银行仍然青睐它们，因为与交易实际证券相比，它们无需留出那么多资本即可赚取巨额利润</b>（2008年金融危机后严格监管的意外后果导致了这个不透明的市场）。</blockquote></p><p> In the case of Archegos, there is very little transparency about Hwang’s trades, but market participants suggest his assets had grown to anywhere from $5 billion to $10 billion in recent years with<b>total exposure topping $50 billion</b>. And bear in mind,<b>this is not 'leverage' in the old-fashioned sense</b>(i.e. banks allow you buy X-times the amount of stocks relative to your capital); this is<b>purely synthetic</b>- the firm has no actual underlying asset to fall back on, but is linearly exposed to losses (and gains) on a margined basis.</p><p><blockquote>就Archegos而言，Hwang的交易透明度很低，但市场参与者表示，近年来他的资产已增长至50亿至100亿美元。<b>总风险敞口超过500亿美元</b>.记住，<b>这不是传统意义上的“杠杆”</b>（即银行允许你购买相对于你资本数量X倍的股票）；这是<b>纯合成的</b>-公司没有实际的基础资产可以依靠，但在边际基础上线性面临损失（和收益）。</blockquote></p><p> And as we noted at the beginning,<b>this has the potential to be much more systemic</b>as the losses created by Archegos' margin calls trigger more margin calls and more potential losses for the prime brokers. Think we are exaggerating, then explain why the costs of counterparty risk hedging for Credit Suisse for example, has exploded in the last few days...</p><p><blockquote>正如我们在开头提到的，<b>这有可能更加系统化</b>由于Archegos的保证金评级造成的损失引发了更多的保证金评级以及大宗经纪商的更多潜在损失。认为我们夸大其词，然后解释为什么瑞士信贷的交易对手风险对冲成本在过去几天激增...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28842de72b88aa4010edfcfa798fa5af\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Mohammed El-Erian told CNBC this morning that<i><b>\"It seems to be a one-off ... for now, it looks contained. And that's a good thing.\" But added \"what we don't want is a pile-up.\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote>穆罕默德·埃里安今天早上告诉CNBC<i><b>“这似乎是一次性的……就目前而言，它看起来得到了控制。这是一件好事。”但补充说“我们不想要的是连环相撞。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> We look forward to the Congressional hearings on this.</p><p><blockquote>我们期待国会就此举行听证会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CFDs - The Dirty Little Secret Behind The Collapse Of Archegos<blockquote>差价合约——Archegos倒闭背后的肮脏小秘密</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCFDs - The Dirty Little Secret Behind The Collapse Of Archegos<blockquote>差价合约——Archegos倒闭背后的肮脏小秘密</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-29 21:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stop us if you've heard this one before -<i>Wall Street prime brokers allowed hedge funds to dance while the music was playing with ever greater leverage in off-exchange and unregulated derivatives... until the first sign of trouble and the whole house of cards comes crashing down in a potentially systemic manner</i>.</p><p><blockquote>如果你以前听过这个，请阻止我们-<i>华尔街大宗经纪商允许对冲基金在场外和不受监管的衍生品杠杆越来越大的同时跳舞...直到出现麻烦的第一个迹象，整个纸牌屋以潜在的系统性方式崩溃</i>.</blockquote></p><p> The bloodbath in various media stocks on Friday has brought light back to one of the dark corners of the equity trading business -<b>so-called contracts-for-differences (CFDs).</b></p><p><blockquote>周五各家媒体股的血洗让股票交易业务的黑暗角落之一重见光明——<b>所谓的差价合约（CFD）。</b></blockquote></p><p> As Bloomberg reports, much of the leverage used by Hwang’s&nbsp;Archegos Capital was provided by banks including&nbsp;Nomura and&nbsp;Credit Suisse -who have most recently admitted huge losses- as<b>CFDs, which are made off exchanges, allow managers like Hwang to amass stakes in publicly traded companies without having to declare their holdings</b>(far in excess of the 5% stakes that require regulatory reporting).</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，Hwang的Archegos Capital使用的大部分杠杆是由野村证券和瑞士信贷等银行提供的——这些银行最近承认遭受了巨大损失——因为<b>在交易所进行的差价合约允许像Hwang这样的经理人积累上市公司的股份，而不必申报他们持有的股份</b>（远远超过需要监管报告的5%股份）。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially,as Bloomberg notes,this means<b>Archegos may never actually have owned most of the underlying securities - if any at all</b>- as the CFD is akin to a privately-arranged (i.e. off exchange and bespoke) futures contract where the differences in the settlement between the open and closing trade prices are cash-settled (there is no delivery of physical goods or securities with CFDs).</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，正如彭博社指出的那样，这意味着<b>Archegos可能从未真正拥有大部分基础证券（如果有的话）</b>-由于差价合约类似于私人安排（即场外及定制）期货合约，其中开盘价与收盘价之间的结算差额以现金结算（差价合约并无交付实物商品或证券）。</blockquote></p><p> What makes the situation worse is that<b>Archegos reportedly took positions in these CFDs with various prime brokers</b>- and because these positions are by their nature not centrally cleared or aggregated, this left prime broker X unaware of their client's exposures with prime broker Y... which in this case was huge.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是<b>据报道，Archegos在多家主要经纪商处持有这些差价合约头寸</b>-由于这些头寸本质上不是集中清算或汇总的，这使得主经纪商X不知道他们的客户在主经纪商Y的风险敞口...在这种情况下，这是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> The leverage Hwang was given made him look like a trading genius as the various positions he took were pumped and pumped (and helped by gamma-squeezers) but now look like a reckless gambling fool as the bets collapsed.</p><p><blockquote>黄禹锡获得的杠杆让他看起来像一个交易天才，因为他持有的各种头寸被抽了又抽（并得到了伽马挤压者的帮助），但现在随着赌注的崩溃，他看起来像一个鲁莽的赌博傻瓜。</blockquote></p><p> CFDs linked to stocks (with a gross market value of around $282 billion at end June 2020) are among bespoke derivatives that investors trade privately between themselves, or over-the-counter, instead of through public exchanges.<b>This is exactly the kind of hidden risk that amplified the losses during the 2008 financial crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>与股票挂钩的差价合约（截至2020年6月底总市值约为2820亿美元）是定制衍生品之一，投资者可以私下交易，或在场外交易，而不是通过公共交易所。<b>这正是2008年金融危机时放大损失的那种隐性风险。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffab65c57ee35df93f6a6087e1136e5b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"321\">AsBloombergnotes,<b>regulators have begun clamping down on CFDs in recent years because they’re concerned the derivatives are too complex and too risky for retail investors,</b>with the European Securities and Markets Authority in 2018&nbsp;restricting&nbsp;the distribution to individuals and capping leverage. In the U.S., CFDs are largely banned for amateur traders... but not for hedge fund managers who are \"sophisticated\"?</p><p><blockquote>正如彭博社指出的那样，<b>监管机构近年来开始打击差价合约，因为他们担心衍生品对散户投资者来说过于复杂且风险太大，</b>欧洲证券和市场管理局在2018年限制了对个人的分配并限制了杠杆。在美国，业余交易者基本上禁止差价合约...但对于“老练”的对冲基金经理来说就不是了？</blockquote></p><p> But,<b>banks still favor them because they can make a large profit without needing to set aside as much capital versus trading actual securities</b>(driven to this opaque market as an unintended consequence of heavy regulation following the 2008 financial crisis).</p><p><blockquote>但是，<b>银行仍然青睐它们，因为与交易实际证券相比，它们无需留出那么多资本即可赚取巨额利润</b>（2008年金融危机后严格监管的意外后果导致了这个不透明的市场）。</blockquote></p><p> In the case of Archegos, there is very little transparency about Hwang’s trades, but market participants suggest his assets had grown to anywhere from $5 billion to $10 billion in recent years with<b>total exposure topping $50 billion</b>. And bear in mind,<b>this is not 'leverage' in the old-fashioned sense</b>(i.e. banks allow you buy X-times the amount of stocks relative to your capital); this is<b>purely synthetic</b>- the firm has no actual underlying asset to fall back on, but is linearly exposed to losses (and gains) on a margined basis.</p><p><blockquote>就Archegos而言，Hwang的交易透明度很低，但市场参与者表示，近年来他的资产已增长至50亿至100亿美元。<b>总风险敞口超过500亿美元</b>.记住，<b>这不是传统意义上的“杠杆”</b>（即银行允许你购买相对于你资本数量X倍的股票）；这是<b>纯合成的</b>-公司没有实际的基础资产可以依靠，但在边际基础上线性面临损失（和收益）。</blockquote></p><p> And as we noted at the beginning,<b>this has the potential to be much more systemic</b>as the losses created by Archegos' margin calls trigger more margin calls and more potential losses for the prime brokers. Think we are exaggerating, then explain why the costs of counterparty risk hedging for Credit Suisse for example, has exploded in the last few days...</p><p><blockquote>正如我们在开头提到的，<b>这有可能更加系统化</b>由于Archegos的保证金评级造成的损失引发了更多的保证金评级以及大宗经纪商的更多潜在损失。认为我们夸大其词，然后解释为什么瑞士信贷的交易对手风险对冲成本在过去几天激增...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28842de72b88aa4010edfcfa798fa5af\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Mohammed El-Erian told CNBC this morning that<i><b>\"It seems to be a one-off ... for now, it looks contained. And that's a good thing.\" But added \"what we don't want is a pile-up.\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote>穆罕默德·埃里安今天早上告诉CNBC<i><b>“这似乎是一次性的……就目前而言，它看起来得到了控制。这是一件好事。”但补充说“我们不想要的是连环相撞。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> We look forward to the Congressional hearings on this.</p><p><blockquote>我们期待国会就此举行听证会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cfds-dirty-little-secret-behind-collapse-archegos?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cfds-dirty-little-secret-behind-collapse-archegos?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193371328","content_text":"Stop us if you've heard this one before -Wall Street prime brokers allowed hedge funds to dance while the music was playing with ever greater leverage in off-exchange and unregulated derivatives... until the first sign of trouble and the whole house of cards comes crashing down in a potentially systemic manner.\nThe bloodbath in various media stocks on Friday has brought light back to one of the dark corners of the equity trading business -so-called contracts-for-differences (CFDs).\nAs Bloomberg reports, much of the leverage used by Hwang’s Archegos Capital was provided by banks including Nomura and Credit Suisse -who have most recently admitted huge losses- asCFDs, which are made off exchanges, allow managers like Hwang to amass stakes in publicly traded companies without having to declare their holdings(far in excess of the 5% stakes that require regulatory reporting).\nCrucially,as Bloomberg notes,this meansArchegos may never actually have owned most of the underlying securities - if any at all- as the CFD is akin to a privately-arranged (i.e. off exchange and bespoke) futures contract where the differences in the settlement between the open and closing trade prices are cash-settled (there is no delivery of physical goods or securities with CFDs).\nWhat makes the situation worse is thatArchegos reportedly took positions in these CFDs with various prime brokers- and because these positions are by their nature not centrally cleared or aggregated, this left prime broker X unaware of their client's exposures with prime broker Y... which in this case was huge.\nThe leverage Hwang was given made him look like a trading genius as the various positions he took were pumped and pumped (and helped by gamma-squeezers) but now look like a reckless gambling fool as the bets collapsed.\nCFDs linked to stocks (with a gross market value of around $282 billion at end June 2020) are among bespoke derivatives that investors trade privately between themselves, or over-the-counter, instead of through public exchanges.This is exactly the kind of hidden risk that amplified the losses during the 2008 financial crisis.\nAsBloombergnotes,regulators have begun clamping down on CFDs in recent years because they’re concerned the derivatives are too complex and too risky for retail investors,with the European Securities and Markets Authority in 2018 restricting the distribution to individuals and capping leverage. In the U.S., CFDs are largely banned for amateur traders... but not for hedge fund managers who are \"sophisticated\"?\nBut,banks still favor them because they can make a large profit without needing to set aside as much capital versus trading actual securities(driven to this opaque market as an unintended consequence of heavy regulation following the 2008 financial crisis).\nIn the case of Archegos, there is very little transparency about Hwang’s trades, but market participants suggest his assets had grown to anywhere from $5 billion to $10 billion in recent years withtotal exposure topping $50 billion. And bear in mind,this is not 'leverage' in the old-fashioned sense(i.e. banks allow you buy X-times the amount of stocks relative to your capital); this ispurely synthetic- the firm has no actual underlying asset to fall back on, but is linearly exposed to losses (and gains) on a margined basis.\nAnd as we noted at the beginning,this has the potential to be much more systemicas the losses created by Archegos' margin calls trigger more margin calls and more potential losses for the prime brokers. Think we are exaggerating, then explain why the costs of counterparty risk hedging for Credit Suisse for example, has exploded in the last few days...\nSource: Bloomberg\nMohammed El-Erian told CNBC this morning that\"It seems to be a one-off ... for now, it looks contained. And that's a good thing.\" But added \"what we don't want is a pile-up.\"\nWe look forward to the Congressional hearings on this.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356045370,"gmtCreate":1616746427290,"gmtModify":1631891482064,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574925934110012","idStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to buy","listText":"Time to buy","text":"Time to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356045370","repostId":"1188307475","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358684748,"gmtCreate":1616685292284,"gmtModify":1631891482068,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574925934110012","idStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;buy the dip","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;buy the dip","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ buy the dip","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d61b873947813c7ac8494bd2b914f6b9","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358684748","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358191717,"gmtCreate":1616670406239,"gmtModify":1631891482073,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574925934110012","idStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to buy","listText":"Time to buy","text":"Time to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358191717","repostId":"1123019252","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1123019252","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616639768,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123019252?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-25 10:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why NIO Stock Is Down<blockquote>蔚来股价为何下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123019252","media":"fool","summary":"Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle makerNIOwere trading lower on Wednesday, amid broad market turbulence affecting shares of manyelectric vehicle makersand other emerging technology companies.There was no major news driving NIO's shares lower -- or major news of any kind that was directly related to NIO or its stock. The company did share some minor news, but it seems positive: As of 3:16 a.m. local time, a NIO battery-swap station in Suzhou  completed the company's 2 millionth battery swap.NIO ","content":"<p>What happened</p><p><blockquote>发生了什么</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle maker<b>NIO</b>were trading lower on Wednesday, amid broad market turbulence affecting shares of manyelectric vehicle makersand other emerging technology companies.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商的股票<b>蔚来</b>由于广泛的市场动荡影响了许多电动汽车制造商和其他新兴科技公司的股价，周三股价走低。</blockquote></p><p> So what</p><p><blockquote>那又怎样</blockquote></p><p> There was no major news driving NIO's shares lower -- or major news of any kind that was directly related to NIO or its stock. The company did share some minor news, but it seems positive: As of 3:16 a.m. local time, a NIO battery-swap station in Suzhou (just west of Shanghai) completed the company's 2 millionth battery swap.</p><p><blockquote>没有重大消息导致蔚来股价下跌，也没有任何与蔚来或其股票直接相关的重大消息。该公司确实分享了一些小消息，但似乎是积极的：截至当地时间凌晨3点16分，苏州市（就在上海市以西）的一家蔚来换电站完成了该公司的第200万次电池更换。</blockquote></p><p> NIO said that its network of over 200 battery-swap stations -- which automatically swap a NIO's battery pack for a fully charged one -- now complete a swap about once every 10 seconds, on average.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来表示，其由200多个电池交换站组成的网络可以自动将蔚来的电池组更换为充满电的电池组，现在平均每10秒完成一次更换。</blockquote></p><p> It's not huge news, and it's certainly not what's moving the stock today. But now you know.</p><p><blockquote>这不是什么大新闻，当然也不是今天该股走势的原因。但现在你知道了。</blockquote></p><p> Now what</p><p><blockquote>现在怎么办</blockquote></p><p> That seconds-between-battery-swaps number could well fall over the next several months, as NIO begins deploying its new \"second-generation\" battery-swap stations. The new stations can store more battery packs and complete swaps more quickly than the current units, and theycost less to build, NIO said earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>随着蔚来开始部署新的“第二代”电池交换站，未来几个月电池交换的秒数很可能会下降。蔚来本月早些时候表示，新电站可以存储更多电池组，比现有电站更快地完成更换，而且建造成本更低。</blockquote></p><p> NIO confirmed on Wednesday that it expects the first of those second-generation stations to be up and running in mid-April.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来周三证实，预计第一个第二代电站将于4月中旬建成并运行。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why NIO Stock Is Down<blockquote>蔚来股价为何下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy NIO Stock Is Down<blockquote>蔚来股价为何下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-25 10:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What happened</p><p><blockquote>发生了什么</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle maker<b>NIO</b>were trading lower on Wednesday, amid broad market turbulence affecting shares of manyelectric vehicle makersand other emerging technology companies.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商的股票<b>蔚来</b>由于广泛的市场动荡影响了许多电动汽车制造商和其他新兴科技公司的股价，周三股价走低。</blockquote></p><p> So what</p><p><blockquote>那又怎样</blockquote></p><p> There was no major news driving NIO's shares lower -- or major news of any kind that was directly related to NIO or its stock. The company did share some minor news, but it seems positive: As of 3:16 a.m. local time, a NIO battery-swap station in Suzhou (just west of Shanghai) completed the company's 2 millionth battery swap.</p><p><blockquote>没有重大消息导致蔚来股价下跌，也没有任何与蔚来或其股票直接相关的重大消息。该公司确实分享了一些小消息，但似乎是积极的：截至当地时间凌晨3点16分，苏州市（就在上海市以西）的一家蔚来换电站完成了该公司的第200万次电池更换。</blockquote></p><p> NIO said that its network of over 200 battery-swap stations -- which automatically swap a NIO's battery pack for a fully charged one -- now complete a swap about once every 10 seconds, on average.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来表示，其由200多个电池交换站组成的网络可以自动将蔚来的电池组更换为充满电的电池组，现在平均每10秒完成一次更换。</blockquote></p><p> It's not huge news, and it's certainly not what's moving the stock today. But now you know.</p><p><blockquote>这不是什么大新闻，当然也不是今天该股走势的原因。但现在你知道了。</blockquote></p><p> Now what</p><p><blockquote>现在怎么办</blockquote></p><p> That seconds-between-battery-swaps number could well fall over the next several months, as NIO begins deploying its new \"second-generation\" battery-swap stations. The new stations can store more battery packs and complete swaps more quickly than the current units, and theycost less to build, NIO said earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>随着蔚来开始部署新的“第二代”电池交换站，未来几个月电池交换的秒数很可能会下降。蔚来本月早些时候表示，新电站可以存储更多电池组，比现有电站更快地完成更换，而且建造成本更低。</blockquote></p><p> NIO confirmed on Wednesday that it expects the first of those second-generation stations to be up and running in mid-April.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来周三证实，预计第一个第二代电站将于4月中旬建成并运行。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/24/why-nio-stock-is-down-today/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b92523152bd36c422721756606e549","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/24/why-nio-stock-is-down-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123019252","content_text":"What happened\nShares of Chinese electric-vehicle makerNIOwere trading lower on Wednesday, amid broad market turbulence affecting shares of manyelectric vehicle makersand other emerging technology companies.\nSo what\nThere was no major news driving NIO's shares lower -- or major news of any kind that was directly related to NIO or its stock. The company did share some minor news, but it seems positive: As of 3:16 a.m. local time, a NIO battery-swap station in Suzhou (just west of Shanghai) completed the company's 2 millionth battery swap.\nNIO said that its network of over 200 battery-swap stations -- which automatically swap a NIO's battery pack for a fully charged one -- now complete a swap about once every 10 seconds, on average.\nIt's not huge news, and it's certainly not what's moving the stock today. But now you know.\nNow what\nThat seconds-between-battery-swaps number could well fall over the next several months, as NIO begins deploying its new \"second-generation\" battery-swap stations. The new stations can store more battery packs and complete swaps more quickly than the current units, and theycost less to build, NIO said earlier this month.\nNIO confirmed on Wednesday that it expects the first of those second-generation stations to be up and running in mid-April.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324782844,"gmtCreate":1616031156388,"gmtModify":1703496602216,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574925934110012","idStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A17U.SI\">$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$</a>go go go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A17U.SI\">$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$</a>go go go","text":"$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$go go go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e119a3285a2147a1ff56eeaa002c8f23","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324782844","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325656335,"gmtCreate":1615897350727,"gmtModify":1703494645261,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574925934110012","idStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325656335","repostId":"1127134490","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127134490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615889741,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127134490?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-16 18:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point\"<blockquote>“我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127134490","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&P 500 has been pulled lower  and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.Picking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"adding that \"the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotatio","content":"<p>Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&amp;P 500 has been pulled lower (due to Nasdaq underperformance coupled with strength in value stocks) and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.</p><p><blockquote>上周，杰夫·冈拉克(Jeff Gundlach)在他最新的Doubleline网络广播中展示了一张引人注目的图表，其中显示纳斯达克与标普500的比率已被拉低（由于纳斯达克表现不佳加上价值股走强），目前正处于网络泡沫峰值水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4617081a74b98cbab2c1287942cb9e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"357\">Picking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"<b>we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"</b>adding that \"<b>the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotation signals.</b>In our view, both tech and growth equities outperformance run is over and the rotation to value and commodity exposed equities has begun.\"</p><p><blockquote>拉里·麦克唐纳(Larry McDonald)在周末最新的《熊陷阱》报告中看到了这张图表，写道：“<b>我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</b>补充说“<b>全球第一和第二流动性最强、可以说是最重要的股指正在发出重要的轮动信号。</b>我们认为，科技股和成长股的优异表现已经结束，向价值股和大宗商品股的轮动已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> AsBloomberg notes, while recent single-day rallies (4% on Tuesday and 2.4% on Thursday) lifted the Nasdaq 100 to its first gain in four weeks, they’re not calming nerves. After all, big up days are not uncommon during a downtrend.<b>In 2000, when the market started a three-year crash, the index had 27 sessions where it rose at least 4%. That compared with six such days in 1999, when prices doubled.</b></p><p><blockquote>正如彭博社指出的那样，虽然最近的单日上涨（周二上涨4%，周四上涨2.4%）将纳斯达克100指数推升至四周以来的首次上涨，但它们并没有安抚人们的神经。毕竟，在下跌趋势中，大幅上涨的日子并不罕见。<b>2000年，当市场开始为期三年的崩盘时，该指数有27个交易日上涨至少4%。相比之下，1999年有六天这样的日子，当时价格翻了一番。</b></blockquote></p><p> “The early stages of a bear market is typically punctuated by ferocious rallies, and what matters in the end is how far the rallies extend and not how quickly they move within a single session,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC. “<b>Evidence continues to mount that the technology sector has finally relinquished its position as key global leadership.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>Marketfield Asset Management LLC首席执行官Michael Shaoul表示：“熊市的早期阶段通常会出现猛烈的反弹，最终重要的是反弹会持续多远，而不是它们在单个交易日内的移动速度。”<b>越来越多的证据表明，科技行业最终放弃了其全球关键领导地位。”</b></blockquote></p><p> That’s raising alarms for anyone who lived through the dot-com crash. Back then, when the Nasdaq 100 started falling in March 2000, the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 kept marching forward and didn’t peak until 14 months later -- a sign that money was being shifted away from the tech behemoths that soared in the internet bubble.<b>Ultimately, the Nasdaq 100 lost half of its value</b>.</p><p><blockquote>这给任何经历过互联网泡沫破裂的人敲响了警钟。当时，当纳斯达克100指数于2000年3月开始下跌时，等权重标普500不断前进，直到14个月后才见顶——这表明资金正在从互联网泡沫中飙升的科技巨头手中转移。<b>最终，纳斯达克100指数损失了一半的价值</b>.</blockquote></p><p>   <b>“People should not take solace in the fact that almost everything else besides the tech group is acting well,</b>” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.  <b>“If the tech group continues to underperform, it’s going to weigh on the rest of the stock market eventually.”</b>  A rotation out of growth and tech will only accelerate depending on what Powell says on Thursday, especially if he doesn't sound sufficient dovish and spooks markets again, triggering another bond rout, which by extension means a selloff in growth stocks which - as we have noted on many previous occasions -<b>have near record high duration and are thus merely bond proxies to which hedge funds have never been more exposed.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“人们不应该因为除了科技集团之外几乎所有其他公司都表现良好而感到安慰，</b>”Miller Tabak+Co.首席市场策略师Matt Maley说道。<b>“如果科技集团继续表现不佳，最终将给股市的其他部分带来压力。”</b>根据鲍威尔周四的言论，成长股和科技股的轮动只会加速，特别是如果他听起来不够鸽派并再次惊动市场，引发另一场债券暴跌，这反过来意味着成长股的抛售——正如我们在之前的许多场合指出的那样——<b>久期接近历史最高水平，因此只是对冲基金从未接触过的债券代理。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c176f70232a97f988ba92c84c6836d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"201\">However, while all eyes were on the 10-Year during the late February \"reflation panic\" selloff which was sparked by a liquidation cascade in bonds once the 10Y breached 1.50%, the place on the Treasury curve where the next liquidation cascade could begin is now the belly, because asBloomberg writeswhereas back in December the thought was that the Federal Reserve might tamp down long-term Treasury yields, the issue now lies with shorter-dated ones, and specifically<b>5-year rates.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管在2月底的“通货再膨胀恐慌”抛售期间，所有人的目光都集中在10年期债券一旦突破1.50%，债券就会出现清算级联，但国债曲线上下一次清算级联可能开始的地方现在是腹部，因为正如彭博社所写，早在12月份，人们就认为美联储可能会压低长期国债收益率，而现在的问题在于短期国债收益率，特别是<b>5年期利率。</b></blockquote></p><p> Yields on that maturity have become unanchored in recent weeks, surging above the previous \"red line\" of 0.75% amid speculation that the<b>Fed will need to start a cycle of rate hikes perhaps a full year earlier than officials have indicated.</b>That shift has also roiled the outlook for a classic iteration of the reflation wager, a widening gap between 5- and 30-year yields, even as the narrative of a stimulus-fueled recovery has only gained momentum.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，该期限的收益率已变得不稳定，飙升至之前0.75%的“红线”之上，因为人们猜测<b>美联储可能需要比官员们表示的提前一整年开始加息周期。</b>这种转变还扰乱了通货再膨胀赌注经典迭代的前景，即5年期和30年期收益率之间的差距不断扩大，尽管刺激推动的复苏的说法才刚刚获得动力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4be02c3e2224fb5edfb0e0ed77bcac\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\"><b>\"The Fed next week will have to walk a fine line between either pushing back against market expectations or allowing them to stand,\"</b>said Kevin Walter, co-head of global Treasuries trading for Barclays. Without Fed pushback \"there might be more pressure on the belly of the curve,\" in which case the best steepeners would be the spreads between 2-year yields versus 5- and 7-year rates that have room to rise as traders price in tightening.</p><p><blockquote><b>“美联储下周将不得不在违背市场预期或允许市场预期之间徘徊。”</b>巴克莱全球国债交易联席主管凯文·沃尔特表示。如果没有美联储的抵制，“曲线腹部可能会有更多压力”，在这种情况下，最好的陡峭化因素将是2年期国债收益率与5年期和7年期国债收益率之间的利差，随着交易员定价收紧，利差还有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> And while most investment bank research divisions, and certainly the Fed, do not expect any liftoff until at least 2023,<b>the swaps market has been reflecting a roughly 75% chance the Fed lifts rates from near zero by around the end of 2022.</b>Indeed, Walter expects no major policy changes next week and anticipates that officials will continue to project rates on hold through 2023, however even doing nothing may force another round of selling amid the recent bout of soaring inflation, one seen as a push by the market to force Powell into some form of Yield Curve Control.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大多数投资银行研究部门，当然还有美联储，预计至少要到2023年才会出现任何提振，<b>掉期市场反映出美联储在2022年底左右将利率从接近零的水平上调的可能性约为75%。</b>事实上，沃尔特预计下周不会有重大政策变化，并预计官员们将在2023年之前继续维持利率不变，但在最近一轮通胀飙升的情况下，即使什么都不做也可能迫使另一轮抛售，这被视为市场的推动迫使鲍威尔进行某种形式的收益率曲线控制。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/148711c8ea3822a0af209f086802c068\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"263\">On the remote chance that the Fed does signal some 2023 hikes next week,<b>the market will probably bring expectations for rate increases into the first half of 2022 and the 1-year-forward 5-year rate could increase 50 basis points, Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy for Mizuho International Plc,</b>said in an emailed note. It would also lead to renewed rotation out of growth and into value, further depressing the Nasdaq to SPX chart shown above.</p><p><blockquote>美联储下周确实发出2023年加息信号的可能性很小，<b>瑞穗国际(Mizuho International Plc)多资产策略主管Peter Chatwell表示，市场可能会将加息预期带入2022年上半年，1年期远期5年期利率可能会上调50个基点，</b>在一封电子邮件中说。这还将导致从增长到价值的重新轮动，进一步压低上面显示的纳斯达克到SPX的图表。</blockquote></p><p> That said, most don't expect Powell to address the continued selling in either the long-end or more recently, the belly - the Fed chair gave only a minor reference to the bond-market slump that drove 10-year yields above 1.6%. He emphasized the importance of financial conditions, which remain accommodative, although tech stocks did sink on Friday as yields surged.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，大多数人预计鲍威尔不会解决长期或最近的腹部持续抛售问题——这位美联储主席只略微提及了推动10年期国债收益率突破1.6%的债券市场暴跌。他强调了金融状况的重要性，尽管随着收益率飙升，科技股周五确实下跌，但金融状况仍然宽松。</blockquote></p><p> None of this will help ease inflation fears as the market fears the Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve. As we noted last week, 5Y inflation expectations at the highest since 2008 and robust jobs data have only reinforced bets that the Fed will need to tighten more quickly than it’s been forecasting. The speculation has squeezed wagers on a steeper curve from 5 to 30 years, shrinking that spread to a bit above 150 basis points, from a more than 6-year high of 167 in February. The 5-year yield at 0.84% isn’t far below its highest level since last year. But at the same time, the 2-year has remained near historic lows on the view that the Fed will hold rates near zero for the immediate future. That’s kept bets on the widely watched spread to the 10-year rate in play, as well as versus other maturities, such as the 5- and 7-year.</p><p><blockquote>这些都无助于缓解通胀担忧，因为市场担心美联储正在迅速落后于曲线。正如我们上周指出的，5年期通胀预期达到2008年以来的最高水平以及强劲的就业数据只会强化人们对美联储需要比预期更快收紧政策的押注。这种猜测挤压了对5年至30年更陡峭曲线的押注，将利差从2月份的6年多高点167个基点缩小至略高于150个基点。5年期国债收益率为0.84%，远低于去年以来的最高水平。但与此同时，由于美联储将在不久的将来将利率维持在接近零的水平，2年期国债仍接近历史低点。这使得人们对广受关注的10年期利率利差以及与5年期和7年期等其他期限利率利差的押注继续发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> And with the front-end anchored for a long, long time, the question then becomes what is the most lucrative steepener trade. “Some steepeners are better than others,” said Patrick Leary, senior trader and chief market strategist for Incapital. He expects the 2s10s to keep widening, but has taken profits on steepeners and is looking for a better point to re-enter. Other see potential in the 5- to 30-year steepener. TD Securities has recommended entering that bet at 146.5 basis points, targeting 170, based on what it said was a high bar for hikes and the prospect of elevated coupon supply.</p><p><blockquote>随着前端锚定很长很长一段时间，问题就变成了什么是最有利可图的陡峭交易。Incapital高级交易员兼首席市场策略师帕特里克·利里(Patrick Leary)表示：“有些陡峭化者比其他者更好。”他预计2s10s将继续扩大，但已在陡峭的地方获利了结，并正在寻找更好的重新进入点。其他人则看到了5至30年陡峭时期的潜力。道明证券(TD Securities)建议以146.5个基点入场，目标为170个基点，理由是加息的门槛很高以及息票供应增加的前景。</blockquote></p><p> Taking a step back, the reason why traders have been so focused on the 5-year part of the curve, i.e., \"the belly\", is because it’s seen as one place that may bear the brunt of any subsequent selloff should rate-hike speculation mount further, since the bulk of the liftoff regime is expected to take place within the maturity of a 5 Year note issued now.</p><p><blockquote>退一步说，交易员之所以如此关注曲线的5年期部分，即“腹部”，是因为如果加息投机进一步加剧，它被视为可能首当其冲遭受任何后续抛售的地方，因为大部分起飞制度预计将在现在发行的5年期票据到期后发生。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, as Bloomberg notes already certain corners of the market are turning their attention to the potential for multiple rate hikes.<b>In swaptions,</b><b><u>a position has emerged targeting the Fed to hike seven to eight times by March 2025, according to a Barclays analysis</u></b><b>.</b></p><p><blockquote>此外，正如彭博社指出的那样，市场的某些角落已经将注意力转向多次加息的可能性。<b>在掉期期权中，</b><b><u>巴克莱银行的分析显示，美联储的目标是到2025年3月加息七到八次</u></b><b>.</b></blockquote></p><p> There is, of course, the risk that markets have gotten ahead of themselves - the whole point of a recent RIC report from BofA, which does not see anywhere nearly enough sustained inflation to justify a 2022 rate hike, let alone 7 by 2025: “it’s possible the market may have gotten a little ahead of itself in the belly,” causing the 5-year rate to rise too much, said Jamie Anderson, head of U.S. trading for Insight Investment. If the data come in weak or the Fed is on hold for longer than expected, “the belly should rally and the curve re-steepen,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>当然，市场存在超前的风险——这就是美国银行最近发布的RIC报告的全部要点，该报告认为任何地方都没有足够的持续通胀来证明2022年加息是合理的，更不用说到2025年加息7次了：Insight Investment美国交易主管杰米·安德森(Jamie Anderson)表示，“市场可能有点超前了”，导致5年期利率上涨过多。他表示，如果数据疲软或美联储按兵不动的时间长于预期，“腹部应该会反弹，曲线会重新变陡”。</blockquote></p><p> For Incapital’s Leary, the narrowing in the 5s30s gap came on the view that officials may discuss - or even announce - a twist next week. Such an operation, involving the sale of shorter-dated holdings and purchase of longer maturities to control yields, would put more pressure on the belly, he says. That would follow the European Central Bank’s decision to ramp up its bond-buying pace.</p><p><blockquote>对于Incapital的Leary来说，5s30差距的缩小是因为官员们可能会在下周讨论甚至宣布一个转折。他表示，这种操作涉及出售短期资产并购买长期资产以控制收益率，将给腹部带来更大压力。此前，欧洲央行决定加快债券购买步伐。</blockquote></p><p> “All these trades are highly dependent on the Fed being on the sidelines and not changing its policy stance,” Leary said.<b>“The market is definitely playing a game of chicken with the Fed, by testing how high yields can get before tightening financial conditions and forcing the Fed to step in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>Leary表示：“所有这些交易都高度依赖美联储保持观望，不改变政策立场。”<b>“市场肯定是在和美联储玩一场吃鸡的游戏，在收紧金融状况并迫使美联储介入之前，测试收益率能达到多高。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, even as some strategists have brushed aside the yield risk for growth stocks, claiming that tech has shown a fickle relationship with Treasuries over time, Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research,<b>found that since 2014, the Nasdaq 100’s forward earnings yield - the inverse of its price-earnings ratio where the higher it is, the cheaper stocks are - has moved almost in lockstep with forecast corporate bond rates.</b></p><p><blockquote>与此同时，尽管一些策略师无视成长型股票的收益率风险，声称随着时间的推移，科技股与美国国债的关系变化无常，但Ned Davis Research首席全球宏观策略师Joe Kalish表示，<b>研究发现，自2014年以来，纳斯达克100指数的远期收益率（市盈率的倒数，市盈率越高，股票越便宜）几乎与预测的公司债券利率同步变动。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In his model, if 10-year Treasury yields rise to 2% this year, that in turn could drive long-term Baa-rated bond rates to 4.5%, a scenario where<b>the Nasdaq 100 would have to drop as much as 20% to stay attractive, all else equal.</b>If yields climbed but the Nasdaq didn’t move, this would indicate over-valuation, Kalish said, adding his model correctly flashed warnings in 1987 and 2000.</p><p><blockquote>在他的模型中，如果10年期美国国债收益率今年升至2%，这反过来可能会将长期Baa评级债券利率推至4.5%，在这种情况下<b>在其他条件相同的情况下，纳斯达克100指数必须下跌20%才能保持吸引力。</b>卡利什表示，如果收益率攀升但纳斯达克没有变动，这将表明估值过高，并补充说他的模型在1987年和2000年正确地发出了警告。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e1270022eb5742b2cf2a7c328a5d897\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"380\">Also keep in mind that even after the recent drop, the price-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 - at 28 - is nowhere near cheap relative to other stocks, and is a 7% premium over the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>另请记住，即使在最近下跌之后，纳斯达克100指数的市盈率（28）相对于其他股票来说也远不便宜，比标普500溢价7%。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the growth advantage that has sustained tech’s outperformance in all but one year since 2009 is poised to disappear - at least for the next two years - as pandemic-beaten firms like airlines and automakers roar back. Profits from software and internet companies are expected to expand 22% this year and 12% in 2022. Both lag behind the broad S&amp;P 500, where earnings are forecast to increase 24% and 15%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着航空公司和汽车制造商等遭受大流行打击的公司卷土重来，自2009年以来除一年外一直维持科技股优异表现的增长优势即将消失——至少在未来两年是这样。软件和互联网公司的利润预计今年将增长22%，2022年将增长12%。两者都落后于广泛的标普500，后者的盈利预计分别增长24%和15%。</blockquote></p><p> So going back to the top chart, and with Nasdaq 100 knocking on the door of its relative peak, it’d be a mistake not to consider the downside risk, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group首席投资策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示，回到顶部图表，随着纳斯达克100指数即将达到相对峰值，不考虑下行风险将是一个错误。</blockquote></p><p> “New-era investments are at a significant crossroads,” he said.<b>“After a prolonged period of extensive outperformance by the Nasdaq and tech stocks, it is not unreasonable to foresee a phase of underperformance, consolidation or even an outright collapse.”</b></p><p><blockquote>“新时代投资正处于一个重要的十字路口，”他说。<b>“在纳斯达克和科技股长期普遍表现出色之后，预计将出现一个表现不佳、整合甚至彻底崩溃的阶段并非没有道理。”</b></blockquote></p><p> If all this sounds unnecessarily convoluted, we remind you of what Rabobank's Michael Everysaid overnight, in what may be the best summary of the Fed's options:</p><p><blockquote>如果这一切听起来不必要地令人费解，我们提醒您荷兰合作银行的迈克尔·埃弗里(Michael Everyevery)一夜之间所说的话，这可能是对美联储选择的最佳总结：</blockquote></p><p>   \"If Powell does nothing, we could perhaps be on the verge of a 2013-style Taper Tantrum. That would send Godzilla-sized shockwaves through markets everywhere, including Tokyo. (And I now think of 1970/80’s British TV ads where a Mock-zilla would eat famous global landmarks before deciding he preferred a certain candy “even chewier than a Barrow-in-Furness bus depot.”) \"\"Of course, Powell could say something or do something: Operation Twist and Shout; or YCC. First of all, this would then show that there is a disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed, which is hardly ideal. Moreover, such steps would prompt a major market flattening, but of two different kinds (short end up and long end down; or just long end down).  <b>As I keep repeating here, YCC would also open the door for some seriously new epic adventures, like opening the mysterious giant gate behind which King Kong is found on his remote island.\"</b>  In short, brace for a burst of volatility on Thursday when Powell (and tech stock bulls) will be damned if the Fed Chair<i><b>doesn't</b></i>do anything, and damned if he&nbsp;<u><b>does</b></u>...</p><p><blockquote>“如果鲍威尔什么都不做，我们可能会处于2013年式的缩减恐慌的边缘。这将给包括东京在内的世界各地的市场带来哥斯拉大小的冲击波。（我现在想起了1970/80年代的英国电视广告，一个模拟zilla会吃掉著名的全球地标，然后决定他更喜欢某种糖果“甚至比Barrow-in-Furness公交车站更有嚼劲。”）“当然，鲍威尔可以说些什么或做些什么：扭曲和呼喊行动；或者YCC。首先，这将表明财政部和美联储之间存在脱节，这并不理想。此外，这些措施将促使市场出现重大扁平化，但有两种不同的类型（短端上升和长端下降；或者只是长端向下）。<b>正如我在这里不断重复的那样，YCC也会为一些全新的史诗冒险打开大门，比如打开神秘的巨门，金刚在他的偏远岛屿上被发现。”</b>简而言之，为周四的波动做好准备，届时鲍威尔（和科技股多头）将受到诅咒，如果美联储主席<i><b>不是</b></i>做任何事，如果他<u><b>是的</b></u>...</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point\"<blockquote>“我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-16 18:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&amp;P 500 has been pulled lower (due to Nasdaq underperformance coupled with strength in value stocks) and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.</p><p><blockquote>上周，杰夫·冈拉克(Jeff Gundlach)在他最新的Doubleline网络广播中展示了一张引人注目的图表，其中显示纳斯达克与标普500的比率已被拉低（由于纳斯达克表现不佳加上价值股走强），目前正处于网络泡沫峰值水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4617081a74b98cbab2c1287942cb9e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"357\">Picking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"<b>we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"</b>adding that \"<b>the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotation signals.</b>In our view, both tech and growth equities outperformance run is over and the rotation to value and commodity exposed equities has begun.\"</p><p><blockquote>拉里·麦克唐纳(Larry McDonald)在周末最新的《熊陷阱》报告中看到了这张图表，写道：“<b>我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</b>补充说“<b>全球第一和第二流动性最强、可以说是最重要的股指正在发出重要的轮动信号。</b>我们认为，科技股和成长股的优异表现已经结束，向价值股和大宗商品股的轮动已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> AsBloomberg notes, while recent single-day rallies (4% on Tuesday and 2.4% on Thursday) lifted the Nasdaq 100 to its first gain in four weeks, they’re not calming nerves. After all, big up days are not uncommon during a downtrend.<b>In 2000, when the market started a three-year crash, the index had 27 sessions where it rose at least 4%. That compared with six such days in 1999, when prices doubled.</b></p><p><blockquote>正如彭博社指出的那样，虽然最近的单日上涨（周二上涨4%，周四上涨2.4%）将纳斯达克100指数推升至四周以来的首次上涨，但它们并没有安抚人们的神经。毕竟，在下跌趋势中，大幅上涨的日子并不罕见。<b>2000年，当市场开始为期三年的崩盘时，该指数有27个交易日上涨至少4%。相比之下，1999年有六天这样的日子，当时价格翻了一番。</b></blockquote></p><p> “The early stages of a bear market is typically punctuated by ferocious rallies, and what matters in the end is how far the rallies extend and not how quickly they move within a single session,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC. “<b>Evidence continues to mount that the technology sector has finally relinquished its position as key global leadership.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>Marketfield Asset Management LLC首席执行官Michael Shaoul表示：“熊市的早期阶段通常会出现猛烈的反弹，最终重要的是反弹会持续多远，而不是它们在单个交易日内的移动速度。”<b>越来越多的证据表明，科技行业最终放弃了其全球关键领导地位。”</b></blockquote></p><p> That’s raising alarms for anyone who lived through the dot-com crash. Back then, when the Nasdaq 100 started falling in March 2000, the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 kept marching forward and didn’t peak until 14 months later -- a sign that money was being shifted away from the tech behemoths that soared in the internet bubble.<b>Ultimately, the Nasdaq 100 lost half of its value</b>.</p><p><blockquote>这给任何经历过互联网泡沫破裂的人敲响了警钟。当时，当纳斯达克100指数于2000年3月开始下跌时，等权重标普500不断前进，直到14个月后才见顶——这表明资金正在从互联网泡沫中飙升的科技巨头手中转移。<b>最终，纳斯达克100指数损失了一半的价值</b>.</blockquote></p><p>   <b>“People should not take solace in the fact that almost everything else besides the tech group is acting well,</b>” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.  <b>“If the tech group continues to underperform, it’s going to weigh on the rest of the stock market eventually.”</b>  A rotation out of growth and tech will only accelerate depending on what Powell says on Thursday, especially if he doesn't sound sufficient dovish and spooks markets again, triggering another bond rout, which by extension means a selloff in growth stocks which - as we have noted on many previous occasions -<b>have near record high duration and are thus merely bond proxies to which hedge funds have never been more exposed.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“人们不应该因为除了科技集团之外几乎所有其他公司都表现良好而感到安慰，</b>”Miller Tabak+Co.首席市场策略师Matt Maley说道。<b>“如果科技集团继续表现不佳，最终将给股市的其他部分带来压力。”</b>根据鲍威尔周四的言论，成长股和科技股的轮动只会加速，特别是如果他听起来不够鸽派并再次惊动市场，引发另一场债券暴跌，这反过来意味着成长股的抛售——正如我们在之前的许多场合指出的那样——<b>久期接近历史最高水平，因此只是对冲基金从未接触过的债券代理。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c176f70232a97f988ba92c84c6836d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"201\">However, while all eyes were on the 10-Year during the late February \"reflation panic\" selloff which was sparked by a liquidation cascade in bonds once the 10Y breached 1.50%, the place on the Treasury curve where the next liquidation cascade could begin is now the belly, because asBloomberg writeswhereas back in December the thought was that the Federal Reserve might tamp down long-term Treasury yields, the issue now lies with shorter-dated ones, and specifically<b>5-year rates.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管在2月底的“通货再膨胀恐慌”抛售期间，所有人的目光都集中在10年期债券一旦突破1.50%，债券就会出现清算级联，但国债曲线上下一次清算级联可能开始的地方现在是腹部，因为正如彭博社所写，早在12月份，人们就认为美联储可能会压低长期国债收益率，而现在的问题在于短期国债收益率，特别是<b>5年期利率。</b></blockquote></p><p> Yields on that maturity have become unanchored in recent weeks, surging above the previous \"red line\" of 0.75% amid speculation that the<b>Fed will need to start a cycle of rate hikes perhaps a full year earlier than officials have indicated.</b>That shift has also roiled the outlook for a classic iteration of the reflation wager, a widening gap between 5- and 30-year yields, even as the narrative of a stimulus-fueled recovery has only gained momentum.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，该期限的收益率已变得不稳定，飙升至之前0.75%的“红线”之上，因为人们猜测<b>美联储可能需要比官员们表示的提前一整年开始加息周期。</b>这种转变还扰乱了通货再膨胀赌注经典迭代的前景，即5年期和30年期收益率之间的差距不断扩大，尽管刺激推动的复苏的说法才刚刚获得动力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4be02c3e2224fb5edfb0e0ed77bcac\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\"><b>\"The Fed next week will have to walk a fine line between either pushing back against market expectations or allowing them to stand,\"</b>said Kevin Walter, co-head of global Treasuries trading for Barclays. Without Fed pushback \"there might be more pressure on the belly of the curve,\" in which case the best steepeners would be the spreads between 2-year yields versus 5- and 7-year rates that have room to rise as traders price in tightening.</p><p><blockquote><b>“美联储下周将不得不在违背市场预期或允许市场预期之间徘徊。”</b>巴克莱全球国债交易联席主管凯文·沃尔特表示。如果没有美联储的抵制，“曲线腹部可能会有更多压力”，在这种情况下，最好的陡峭化因素将是2年期国债收益率与5年期和7年期国债收益率之间的利差，随着交易员定价收紧，利差还有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> And while most investment bank research divisions, and certainly the Fed, do not expect any liftoff until at least 2023,<b>the swaps market has been reflecting a roughly 75% chance the Fed lifts rates from near zero by around the end of 2022.</b>Indeed, Walter expects no major policy changes next week and anticipates that officials will continue to project rates on hold through 2023, however even doing nothing may force another round of selling amid the recent bout of soaring inflation, one seen as a push by the market to force Powell into some form of Yield Curve Control.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大多数投资银行研究部门，当然还有美联储，预计至少要到2023年才会出现任何提振，<b>掉期市场反映出美联储在2022年底左右将利率从接近零的水平上调的可能性约为75%。</b>事实上，沃尔特预计下周不会有重大政策变化，并预计官员们将在2023年之前继续维持利率不变，但在最近一轮通胀飙升的情况下，即使什么都不做也可能迫使另一轮抛售，这被视为市场的推动迫使鲍威尔进行某种形式的收益率曲线控制。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/148711c8ea3822a0af209f086802c068\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"263\">On the remote chance that the Fed does signal some 2023 hikes next week,<b>the market will probably bring expectations for rate increases into the first half of 2022 and the 1-year-forward 5-year rate could increase 50 basis points, Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy for Mizuho International Plc,</b>said in an emailed note. It would also lead to renewed rotation out of growth and into value, further depressing the Nasdaq to SPX chart shown above.</p><p><blockquote>美联储下周确实发出2023年加息信号的可能性很小，<b>瑞穗国际(Mizuho International Plc)多资产策略主管Peter Chatwell表示，市场可能会将加息预期带入2022年上半年，1年期远期5年期利率可能会上调50个基点，</b>在一封电子邮件中说。这还将导致从增长到价值的重新轮动，进一步压低上面显示的纳斯达克到SPX的图表。</blockquote></p><p> That said, most don't expect Powell to address the continued selling in either the long-end or more recently, the belly - the Fed chair gave only a minor reference to the bond-market slump that drove 10-year yields above 1.6%. He emphasized the importance of financial conditions, which remain accommodative, although tech stocks did sink on Friday as yields surged.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，大多数人预计鲍威尔不会解决长期或最近的腹部持续抛售问题——这位美联储主席只略微提及了推动10年期国债收益率突破1.6%的债券市场暴跌。他强调了金融状况的重要性，尽管随着收益率飙升，科技股周五确实下跌，但金融状况仍然宽松。</blockquote></p><p> None of this will help ease inflation fears as the market fears the Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve. As we noted last week, 5Y inflation expectations at the highest since 2008 and robust jobs data have only reinforced bets that the Fed will need to tighten more quickly than it’s been forecasting. The speculation has squeezed wagers on a steeper curve from 5 to 30 years, shrinking that spread to a bit above 150 basis points, from a more than 6-year high of 167 in February. The 5-year yield at 0.84% isn’t far below its highest level since last year. But at the same time, the 2-year has remained near historic lows on the view that the Fed will hold rates near zero for the immediate future. That’s kept bets on the widely watched spread to the 10-year rate in play, as well as versus other maturities, such as the 5- and 7-year.</p><p><blockquote>这些都无助于缓解通胀担忧，因为市场担心美联储正在迅速落后于曲线。正如我们上周指出的，5年期通胀预期达到2008年以来的最高水平以及强劲的就业数据只会强化人们对美联储需要比预期更快收紧政策的押注。这种猜测挤压了对5年至30年更陡峭曲线的押注，将利差从2月份的6年多高点167个基点缩小至略高于150个基点。5年期国债收益率为0.84%，远低于去年以来的最高水平。但与此同时，由于美联储将在不久的将来将利率维持在接近零的水平，2年期国债仍接近历史低点。这使得人们对广受关注的10年期利率利差以及与5年期和7年期等其他期限利率利差的押注继续发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> And with the front-end anchored for a long, long time, the question then becomes what is the most lucrative steepener trade. “Some steepeners are better than others,” said Patrick Leary, senior trader and chief market strategist for Incapital. He expects the 2s10s to keep widening, but has taken profits on steepeners and is looking for a better point to re-enter. Other see potential in the 5- to 30-year steepener. TD Securities has recommended entering that bet at 146.5 basis points, targeting 170, based on what it said was a high bar for hikes and the prospect of elevated coupon supply.</p><p><blockquote>随着前端锚定很长很长一段时间，问题就变成了什么是最有利可图的陡峭交易。Incapital高级交易员兼首席市场策略师帕特里克·利里(Patrick Leary)表示：“有些陡峭化者比其他者更好。”他预计2s10s将继续扩大，但已在陡峭的地方获利了结，并正在寻找更好的重新进入点。其他人则看到了5至30年陡峭时期的潜力。道明证券(TD Securities)建议以146.5个基点入场，目标为170个基点，理由是加息的门槛很高以及息票供应增加的前景。</blockquote></p><p> Taking a step back, the reason why traders have been so focused on the 5-year part of the curve, i.e., \"the belly\", is because it’s seen as one place that may bear the brunt of any subsequent selloff should rate-hike speculation mount further, since the bulk of the liftoff regime is expected to take place within the maturity of a 5 Year note issued now.</p><p><blockquote>退一步说，交易员之所以如此关注曲线的5年期部分，即“腹部”，是因为如果加息投机进一步加剧，它被视为可能首当其冲遭受任何后续抛售的地方，因为大部分起飞制度预计将在现在发行的5年期票据到期后发生。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, as Bloomberg notes already certain corners of the market are turning their attention to the potential for multiple rate hikes.<b>In swaptions,</b><b><u>a position has emerged targeting the Fed to hike seven to eight times by March 2025, according to a Barclays analysis</u></b><b>.</b></p><p><blockquote>此外，正如彭博社指出的那样，市场的某些角落已经将注意力转向多次加息的可能性。<b>在掉期期权中，</b><b><u>巴克莱银行的分析显示，美联储的目标是到2025年3月加息七到八次</u></b><b>.</b></blockquote></p><p> There is, of course, the risk that markets have gotten ahead of themselves - the whole point of a recent RIC report from BofA, which does not see anywhere nearly enough sustained inflation to justify a 2022 rate hike, let alone 7 by 2025: “it’s possible the market may have gotten a little ahead of itself in the belly,” causing the 5-year rate to rise too much, said Jamie Anderson, head of U.S. trading for Insight Investment. If the data come in weak or the Fed is on hold for longer than expected, “the belly should rally and the curve re-steepen,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>当然，市场存在超前的风险——这就是美国银行最近发布的RIC报告的全部要点，该报告认为任何地方都没有足够的持续通胀来证明2022年加息是合理的，更不用说到2025年加息7次了：Insight Investment美国交易主管杰米·安德森(Jamie Anderson)表示，“市场可能有点超前了”，导致5年期利率上涨过多。他表示，如果数据疲软或美联储按兵不动的时间长于预期，“腹部应该会反弹，曲线会重新变陡”。</blockquote></p><p> For Incapital’s Leary, the narrowing in the 5s30s gap came on the view that officials may discuss - or even announce - a twist next week. Such an operation, involving the sale of shorter-dated holdings and purchase of longer maturities to control yields, would put more pressure on the belly, he says. That would follow the European Central Bank’s decision to ramp up its bond-buying pace.</p><p><blockquote>对于Incapital的Leary来说，5s30差距的缩小是因为官员们可能会在下周讨论甚至宣布一个转折。他表示，这种操作涉及出售短期资产并购买长期资产以控制收益率，将给腹部带来更大压力。此前，欧洲央行决定加快债券购买步伐。</blockquote></p><p> “All these trades are highly dependent on the Fed being on the sidelines and not changing its policy stance,” Leary said.<b>“The market is definitely playing a game of chicken with the Fed, by testing how high yields can get before tightening financial conditions and forcing the Fed to step in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>Leary表示：“所有这些交易都高度依赖美联储保持观望，不改变政策立场。”<b>“市场肯定是在和美联储玩一场吃鸡的游戏，在收紧金融状况并迫使美联储介入之前，测试收益率能达到多高。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, even as some strategists have brushed aside the yield risk for growth stocks, claiming that tech has shown a fickle relationship with Treasuries over time, Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research,<b>found that since 2014, the Nasdaq 100’s forward earnings yield - the inverse of its price-earnings ratio where the higher it is, the cheaper stocks are - has moved almost in lockstep with forecast corporate bond rates.</b></p><p><blockquote>与此同时，尽管一些策略师无视成长型股票的收益率风险，声称随着时间的推移，科技股与美国国债的关系变化无常，但Ned Davis Research首席全球宏观策略师Joe Kalish表示，<b>研究发现，自2014年以来，纳斯达克100指数的远期收益率（市盈率的倒数，市盈率越高，股票越便宜）几乎与预测的公司债券利率同步变动。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In his model, if 10-year Treasury yields rise to 2% this year, that in turn could drive long-term Baa-rated bond rates to 4.5%, a scenario where<b>the Nasdaq 100 would have to drop as much as 20% to stay attractive, all else equal.</b>If yields climbed but the Nasdaq didn’t move, this would indicate over-valuation, Kalish said, adding his model correctly flashed warnings in 1987 and 2000.</p><p><blockquote>在他的模型中，如果10年期美国国债收益率今年升至2%，这反过来可能会将长期Baa评级债券利率推至4.5%，在这种情况下<b>在其他条件相同的情况下，纳斯达克100指数必须下跌20%才能保持吸引力。</b>卡利什表示，如果收益率攀升但纳斯达克没有变动，这将表明估值过高，并补充说他的模型在1987年和2000年正确地发出了警告。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e1270022eb5742b2cf2a7c328a5d897\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"380\">Also keep in mind that even after the recent drop, the price-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 - at 28 - is nowhere near cheap relative to other stocks, and is a 7% premium over the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>另请记住，即使在最近下跌之后，纳斯达克100指数的市盈率（28）相对于其他股票来说也远不便宜，比标普500溢价7%。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the growth advantage that has sustained tech’s outperformance in all but one year since 2009 is poised to disappear - at least for the next two years - as pandemic-beaten firms like airlines and automakers roar back. Profits from software and internet companies are expected to expand 22% this year and 12% in 2022. Both lag behind the broad S&amp;P 500, where earnings are forecast to increase 24% and 15%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着航空公司和汽车制造商等遭受大流行打击的公司卷土重来，自2009年以来除一年外一直维持科技股优异表现的增长优势即将消失——至少在未来两年是这样。软件和互联网公司的利润预计今年将增长22%，2022年将增长12%。两者都落后于广泛的标普500，后者的盈利预计分别增长24%和15%。</blockquote></p><p> So going back to the top chart, and with Nasdaq 100 knocking on the door of its relative peak, it’d be a mistake not to consider the downside risk, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group首席投资策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示，回到顶部图表，随着纳斯达克100指数即将达到相对峰值，不考虑下行风险将是一个错误。</blockquote></p><p> “New-era investments are at a significant crossroads,” he said.<b>“After a prolonged period of extensive outperformance by the Nasdaq and tech stocks, it is not unreasonable to foresee a phase of underperformance, consolidation or even an outright collapse.”</b></p><p><blockquote>“新时代投资正处于一个重要的十字路口，”他说。<b>“在纳斯达克和科技股长期普遍表现出色之后，预计将出现一个表现不佳、整合甚至彻底崩溃的阶段并非没有道理。”</b></blockquote></p><p> If all this sounds unnecessarily convoluted, we remind you of what Rabobank's Michael Everysaid overnight, in what may be the best summary of the Fed's options:</p><p><blockquote>如果这一切听起来不必要地令人费解，我们提醒您荷兰合作银行的迈克尔·埃弗里(Michael Everyevery)一夜之间所说的话，这可能是对美联储选择的最佳总结：</blockquote></p><p>   \"If Powell does nothing, we could perhaps be on the verge of a 2013-style Taper Tantrum. That would send Godzilla-sized shockwaves through markets everywhere, including Tokyo. (And I now think of 1970/80’s British TV ads where a Mock-zilla would eat famous global landmarks before deciding he preferred a certain candy “even chewier than a Barrow-in-Furness bus depot.”) \"\"Of course, Powell could say something or do something: Operation Twist and Shout; or YCC. First of all, this would then show that there is a disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed, which is hardly ideal. Moreover, such steps would prompt a major market flattening, but of two different kinds (short end up and long end down; or just long end down).  <b>As I keep repeating here, YCC would also open the door for some seriously new epic adventures, like opening the mysterious giant gate behind which King Kong is found on his remote island.\"</b>  In short, brace for a burst of volatility on Thursday when Powell (and tech stock bulls) will be damned if the Fed Chair<i><b>doesn't</b></i>do anything, and damned if he&nbsp;<u><b>does</b></u>...</p><p><blockquote>“如果鲍威尔什么都不做，我们可能会处于2013年式的缩减恐慌的边缘。这将给包括东京在内的世界各地的市场带来哥斯拉大小的冲击波。（我现在想起了1970/80年代的英国电视广告，一个模拟zilla会吃掉著名的全球地标，然后决定他更喜欢某种糖果“甚至比Barrow-in-Furness公交车站更有嚼劲。”）“当然，鲍威尔可以说些什么或做些什么：扭曲和呼喊行动；或者YCC。首先，这将表明财政部和美联储之间存在脱节，这并不理想。此外，这些措施将促使市场出现重大扁平化，但有两种不同的类型（短端上升和长端下降；或者只是长端向下）。<b>正如我在这里不断重复的那样，YCC也会为一些全新的史诗冒险打开大门，比如打开神秘的巨门，金刚在他的偏远岛屿上被发现。”</b>简而言之，为周四的波动做好准备，届时鲍威尔（和科技股多头）将受到诅咒，如果美联储主席<i><b>不是</b></i>做任何事，如果他<u><b>是的</b></u>...</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-sitting-incredibly-important-turning-point\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-sitting-incredibly-important-turning-point","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127134490","content_text":"Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&P 500 has been pulled lower (due to Nasdaq underperformance coupled with strength in value stocks) and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.\nPicking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"adding that \"the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotation signals.In our view, both tech and growth equities outperformance run is over and the rotation to value and commodity exposed equities has begun.\"\nAsBloomberg notes, while recent single-day rallies (4% on Tuesday and 2.4% on Thursday) lifted the Nasdaq 100 to its first gain in four weeks, they’re not calming nerves. After all, big up days are not uncommon during a downtrend.In 2000, when the market started a three-year crash, the index had 27 sessions where it rose at least 4%. That compared with six such days in 1999, when prices doubled.\n“The early stages of a bear market is typically punctuated by ferocious rallies, and what matters in the end is how far the rallies extend and not how quickly they move within a single session,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC. “Evidence continues to mount that the technology sector has finally relinquished its position as key global leadership.\"\nThat’s raising alarms for anyone who lived through the dot-com crash. Back then, when the Nasdaq 100 started falling in March 2000, the equal-weighted S&P 500 kept marching forward and didn’t peak until 14 months later -- a sign that money was being shifted away from the tech behemoths that soared in the internet bubble.Ultimately, the Nasdaq 100 lost half of its value.\n\n“People should not take solace in the fact that almost everything else besides the tech group is acting well,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.\n “If the tech group continues to underperform, it’s going to weigh on the rest of the stock market eventually.”\n\nA rotation out of growth and tech will only accelerate depending on what Powell says on Thursday, especially if he doesn't sound sufficient dovish and spooks markets again, triggering another bond rout, which by extension means a selloff in growth stocks which - as we have noted on many previous occasions -have near record high duration and are thus merely bond proxies to which hedge funds have never been more exposed.\nHowever, while all eyes were on the 10-Year during the late February \"reflation panic\" selloff which was sparked by a liquidation cascade in bonds once the 10Y breached 1.50%, the place on the Treasury curve where the next liquidation cascade could begin is now the belly, because asBloomberg writeswhereas back in December the thought was that the Federal Reserve might tamp down long-term Treasury yields, the issue now lies with shorter-dated ones, and specifically5-year rates.\nYields on that maturity have become unanchored in recent weeks, surging above the previous \"red line\" of 0.75% amid speculation that theFed will need to start a cycle of rate hikes perhaps a full year earlier than officials have indicated.That shift has also roiled the outlook for a classic iteration of the reflation wager, a widening gap between 5- and 30-year yields, even as the narrative of a stimulus-fueled recovery has only gained momentum.\n\"The Fed next week will have to walk a fine line between either pushing back against market expectations or allowing them to stand,\"said Kevin Walter, co-head of global Treasuries trading for Barclays. Without Fed pushback \"there might be more pressure on the belly of the curve,\" in which case the best steepeners would be the spreads between 2-year yields versus 5- and 7-year rates that have room to rise as traders price in tightening.\nAnd while most investment bank research divisions, and certainly the Fed, do not expect any liftoff until at least 2023,the swaps market has been reflecting a roughly 75% chance the Fed lifts rates from near zero by around the end of 2022.Indeed, Walter expects no major policy changes next week and anticipates that officials will continue to project rates on hold through 2023, however even doing nothing may force another round of selling amid the recent bout of soaring inflation, one seen as a push by the market to force Powell into some form of Yield Curve Control.\nOn the remote chance that the Fed does signal some 2023 hikes next week,the market will probably bring expectations for rate increases into the first half of 2022 and the 1-year-forward 5-year rate could increase 50 basis points, Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy for Mizuho International Plc,said in an emailed note. It would also lead to renewed rotation out of growth and into value, further depressing the Nasdaq to SPX chart shown above.\nThat said, most don't expect Powell to address the continued selling in either the long-end or more recently, the belly - the Fed chair gave only a minor reference to the bond-market slump that drove 10-year yields above 1.6%. He emphasized the importance of financial conditions, which remain accommodative, although tech stocks did sink on Friday as yields surged.\nNone of this will help ease inflation fears as the market fears the Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve. As we noted last week, 5Y inflation expectations at the highest since 2008 and robust jobs data have only reinforced bets that the Fed will need to tighten more quickly than it’s been forecasting. The speculation has squeezed wagers on a steeper curve from 5 to 30 years, shrinking that spread to a bit above 150 basis points, from a more than 6-year high of 167 in February. The 5-year yield at 0.84% isn’t far below its highest level since last year. But at the same time, the 2-year has remained near historic lows on the view that the Fed will hold rates near zero for the immediate future. That’s kept bets on the widely watched spread to the 10-year rate in play, as well as versus other maturities, such as the 5- and 7-year.\nAnd with the front-end anchored for a long, long time, the question then becomes what is the most lucrative steepener trade. “Some steepeners are better than others,” said Patrick Leary, senior trader and chief market strategist for Incapital. He expects the 2s10s to keep widening, but has taken profits on steepeners and is looking for a better point to re-enter. Other see potential in the 5- to 30-year steepener. TD Securities has recommended entering that bet at 146.5 basis points, targeting 170, based on what it said was a high bar for hikes and the prospect of elevated coupon supply.\nTaking a step back, the reason why traders have been so focused on the 5-year part of the curve, i.e., \"the belly\", is because it’s seen as one place that may bear the brunt of any subsequent selloff should rate-hike speculation mount further, since the bulk of the liftoff regime is expected to take place within the maturity of a 5 Year note issued now.\nFurthermore, as Bloomberg notes already certain corners of the market are turning their attention to the potential for multiple rate hikes.In swaptions,a position has emerged targeting the Fed to hike seven to eight times by March 2025, according to a Barclays analysis.\nThere is, of course, the risk that markets have gotten ahead of themselves - the whole point of a recent RIC report from BofA, which does not see anywhere nearly enough sustained inflation to justify a 2022 rate hike, let alone 7 by 2025: “it’s possible the market may have gotten a little ahead of itself in the belly,” causing the 5-year rate to rise too much, said Jamie Anderson, head of U.S. trading for Insight Investment. If the data come in weak or the Fed is on hold for longer than expected, “the belly should rally and the curve re-steepen,” he said.\nFor Incapital’s Leary, the narrowing in the 5s30s gap came on the view that officials may discuss - or even announce - a twist next week. Such an operation, involving the sale of shorter-dated holdings and purchase of longer maturities to control yields, would put more pressure on the belly, he says. That would follow the European Central Bank’s decision to ramp up its bond-buying pace.\n“All these trades are highly dependent on the Fed being on the sidelines and not changing its policy stance,” Leary said.“The market is definitely playing a game of chicken with the Fed, by testing how high yields can get before tightening financial conditions and forcing the Fed to step in.\"\nMeanwhile, even as some strategists have brushed aside the yield risk for growth stocks, claiming that tech has shown a fickle relationship with Treasuries over time, Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research,found that since 2014, the Nasdaq 100’s forward earnings yield - the inverse of its price-earnings ratio where the higher it is, the cheaper stocks are - has moved almost in lockstep with forecast corporate bond rates.\nIn his model, if 10-year Treasury yields rise to 2% this year, that in turn could drive long-term Baa-rated bond rates to 4.5%, a scenario wherethe Nasdaq 100 would have to drop as much as 20% to stay attractive, all else equal.If yields climbed but the Nasdaq didn’t move, this would indicate over-valuation, Kalish said, adding his model correctly flashed warnings in 1987 and 2000.\nAlso keep in mind that even after the recent drop, the price-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 - at 28 - is nowhere near cheap relative to other stocks, and is a 7% premium over the S&P 500.\nFinally, the growth advantage that has sustained tech’s outperformance in all but one year since 2009 is poised to disappear - at least for the next two years - as pandemic-beaten firms like airlines and automakers roar back. Profits from software and internet companies are expected to expand 22% this year and 12% in 2022. Both lag behind the broad S&P 500, where earnings are forecast to increase 24% and 15%, respectively.\nSo going back to the top chart, and with Nasdaq 100 knocking on the door of its relative peak, it’d be a mistake not to consider the downside risk, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group.\n“New-era investments are at a significant crossroads,” he said.“After a prolonged period of extensive outperformance by the Nasdaq and tech stocks, it is not unreasonable to foresee a phase of underperformance, consolidation or even an outright collapse.”\nIf all this sounds unnecessarily convoluted, we remind you of what Rabobank's Michael Everysaid overnight, in what may be the best summary of the Fed's options:\n\n \"If Powell does nothing, we could perhaps be on the verge of a 2013-style Taper Tantrum. That would send Godzilla-sized shockwaves through markets everywhere, including Tokyo. (And I now think of 1970/80’s British TV ads where a Mock-zilla would eat famous global landmarks before deciding he preferred a certain candy “even chewier than a Barrow-in-Furness bus depot.”) \"\"Of course, Powell could say something or do something: Operation Twist and Shout; or YCC. First of all, this would then show that there is a disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed, which is hardly ideal. Moreover, such steps would prompt a major market flattening, but of two different kinds (short end up and long end down; or just long end down).\n As I keep repeating here, YCC would also open the door for some seriously new epic adventures, like opening the mysterious giant gate behind which King Kong is found on his remote island.\"\n\nIn short, brace for a burst of volatility on Thursday when Powell (and tech stock bulls) will be damned if the Fed Chairdoesn'tdo anything, and damned if he does...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322135515,"gmtCreate":1615781822237,"gmtModify":1703492861045,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574925934110012","idStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322135515","repostId":"1161179297","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161179297","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615771321,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161179297?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-15 09:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161179297","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.Stocks of electric-vehicle  makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach","content":"<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价低迷之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值也很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车(EV)制造商的股票在2020年加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为这个全球最大的汽车市场继续向交通领域的电气化迈进。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增长到500万辆。据研究机构BloombergNEF称，到2030年，这一数字可能达到1000万，到2040年接近2000万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个更好，尤其是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合适的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，世界上最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，将会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）在上海建立第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们总共交付了131,000辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点。<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易代码：比亚迪）2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2020年交付了近44,000辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的销量比2019年增加了一倍多，达到27,041辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年初推出以来，小鹏汽车的P7运动型轿车累计交付量已超过20,000辆，超越G3紧凑型SUV成为该公司最受欢迎的汽车。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付20,000辆汽车的最快速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款ET7豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统可以延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员靠近时自动释放车门的“电子锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股票分别较2021年1月的高点下跌了27%和38%，现在是看看哪一个可能更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都尚未盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都非常高，但销售额预计将快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它的成本低于小鹏汽车。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借ET7进军豪华轿车领域可能有助于将该公司推向一个新的水平。2020年毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路在望。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望有足够的资本来资助计划的增长工作。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上的现金和现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资为65亿美元，小鹏汽车约为54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港联交所上市来筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于只想选择一家公司来参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，有可能出现很大的波动。但对于那些能够承受这一点并进行适当投资的人来说，最近股价的下跌使蔚来目前比小鹏汽车更值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-15 09:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价低迷之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值也很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车(EV)制造商的股票在2020年加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为这个全球最大的汽车市场继续向交通领域的电气化迈进。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增长到500万辆。据研究机构BloombergNEF称，到2030年，这一数字可能达到1000万，到2040年接近2000万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个更好，尤其是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合适的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，世界上最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，将会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）在上海建立第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们总共交付了131,000辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点。<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易代码：比亚迪）2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2020年交付了近44,000辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的销量比2019年增加了一倍多，达到27,041辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年初推出以来，小鹏汽车的P7运动型轿车累计交付量已超过20,000辆，超越G3紧凑型SUV成为该公司最受欢迎的汽车。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付20,000辆汽车的最快速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款ET7豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统可以延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员靠近时自动释放车门的“电子锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股票分别较2021年1月的高点下跌了27%和38%，现在是看看哪一个可能更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都尚未盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都非常高，但销售额预计将快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它的成本低于小鹏汽车。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借ET7进军豪华轿车领域可能有助于将该公司推向一个新的水平。2020年毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路在望。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望有足够的资本来资助计划的增长工作。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上的现金和现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资为65亿美元，小鹏汽车约为54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港联交所上市来筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于只想选择一家公司来参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，有可能出现很大的波动。但对于那些能够承受这一点并进行适当投资的人来说，最近股价的下跌使蔚来目前比小鹏汽车更值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161179297","content_text":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.\nStocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.\nEV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are NIO (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.\nThe right market\nAs noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that BYD (OTC:BYDDY) sold in 2020.\nNIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.\nXPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.\nNIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.\nPriced for perfection\nThe strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.\nNeither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The price-to-sales ratios (P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.\nNIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS\nThough NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.\nLooking ahead\nNIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.\nBoth companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.\nFor investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322135931,"gmtCreate":1615781803923,"gmtModify":1703492860009,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574925934110012","idStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go NIO&nbsp;","listText":"Go NIO&nbsp;","text":"Go NIO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322135931","repostId":"1161179297","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161179297","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615771321,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161179297?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-15 09:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161179297","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.Stocks of electric-vehicle  makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach","content":"<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价低迷之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值也很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车(EV)制造商的股票在2020年加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为这个全球最大的汽车市场继续向交通领域的电气化迈进。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增长到500万辆。据研究机构BloombergNEF称，到2030年，这一数字可能达到1000万，到2040年接近2000万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个更好，尤其是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合适的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，世界上最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，将会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）在上海建立第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们总共交付了131,000辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点。<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易代码：比亚迪）2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2020年交付了近44,000辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的销量比2019年增加了一倍多，达到27,041辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年初推出以来，小鹏汽车的P7运动型轿车累计交付量已超过20,000辆，超越G3紧凑型SUV成为该公司最受欢迎的汽车。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付20,000辆汽车的最快速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款ET7豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统可以延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员靠近时自动释放车门的“电子锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股票分别较2021年1月的高点下跌了27%和38%，现在是看看哪一个可能更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都尚未盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都非常高，但销售额预计将快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它的成本低于小鹏汽车。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借ET7进军豪华轿车领域可能有助于将该公司推向一个新的水平。2020年毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路在望。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望有足够的资本来资助计划的增长工作。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上的现金和现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资为65亿美元，小鹏汽车约为54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港联交所上市来筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于只想选择一家公司来参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，有可能出现很大的波动。但对于那些能够承受这一点并进行适当投资的人来说，最近股价的下跌使蔚来目前比小鹏汽车更值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-15 09:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价低迷之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值也很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车(EV)制造商的股票在2020年加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为这个全球最大的汽车市场继续向交通领域的电气化迈进。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增长到500万辆。据研究机构BloombergNEF称，到2030年，这一数字可能达到1000万，到2040年接近2000万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个更好，尤其是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合适的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，世界上最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，将会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）在上海建立第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们总共交付了131,000辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点。<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易代码：比亚迪）2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2020年交付了近44,000辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的销量比2019年增加了一倍多，达到27,041辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年初推出以来，小鹏汽车的P7运动型轿车累计交付量已超过20,000辆，超越G3紧凑型SUV成为该公司最受欢迎的汽车。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付20,000辆汽车的最快速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款ET7豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统可以延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员靠近时自动释放车门的“电子锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股票分别较2021年1月的高点下跌了27%和38%，现在是看看哪一个可能更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都尚未盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都非常高，但销售额预计将快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它的成本低于小鹏汽车。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借ET7进军豪华轿车领域可能有助于将该公司推向一个新的水平。2020年毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路在望。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望有足够的资本来资助计划的增长工作。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上的现金和现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资为65亿美元，小鹏汽车约为54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港联交所上市来筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于只想选择一家公司来参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，有可能出现很大的波动。但对于那些能够承受这一点并进行适当投资的人来说，最近股价的下跌使蔚来目前比小鹏汽车更值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161179297","content_text":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.\nStocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.\nEV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are NIO (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.\nThe right market\nAs noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that BYD (OTC:BYDDY) sold in 2020.\nNIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.\nXPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.\nNIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.\nPriced for perfection\nThe strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.\nNeither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The price-to-sales ratios (P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.\nNIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS\nThough NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.\nLooking ahead\nNIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.\nBoth companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.\nFor investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328004236,"gmtCreate":1615473740325,"gmtModify":1703489603735,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574925934110012","idStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328004236","repostId":"1124053377","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321683737,"gmtCreate":1615428988429,"gmtModify":1703488926525,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574925934110012","idStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;hoping for brighter weeks ahead","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;hoping for brighter weeks ahead","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ hoping for brighter weeks ahead","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0542cf483a7e4feeb7ad14cd155cdd5c","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321683737","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321023748,"gmtCreate":1615386259684,"gmtModify":1703488261838,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574925934110012","idStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321023748","repostId":"323065144","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":323065144,"gmtCreate":1615290598688,"gmtModify":1703486831785,"author":{"id":"3510558082622800","authorId":"3510558082622800","name":"胖虎哒哒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75b95d9326c02813b7b87ba8c1eccb5a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3510558082622800","idStr":"3510558082622800"},"themes":[],"title":"Roblox投资者日会议笔记","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>&nbsp;三个半小时的投资者日会议视频看完了，视频组成是CEO讲话+高管讲解各业务线如何运作+分析师线上提问+CEO和CFO进行回复。 首先这个视频解决了我的疑惑点：虚拟货币Robux的汇率兑换，之前看招股书的时候其实公司没有写很详细，这个视频讲说Robux的兑换汇率是一美分，我理解应该是按美元汇率，相当于1美元=100Robux，个人感觉这虚拟币真挺值钱的，而且当开发者将Robux转换成真实的美元时，平台还会抽取佣金。 然后是变现方面，有两点我比较关心的：虚拟货币Robux和广告业务。 Robux之前很长时间是只支持单笔充值，直到最近公司才推出了订阅服务，然后现在他们还想做实体Robux卡、做月票、做会员体系，把Robux产品体系完善起来，我觉得想法真挺好的。 首席业务官 虽然公司是有广告品牌方面的计划，但是公司讲说不会是普通广告的形式，而是融入平台本身，就像现实世界公路边的广告牌那样，高管一再强调广告不会影响用户体验，虽然还没看到效果，但是我结合了一下科幻小说《雪崩》里的描述，我大概了解公司说的广告形态是什么样，总之，期待这样的广告模式有趣而且有效吧，毕竟真正优秀的产品是可以落地实现而不是画饼。 &nbsp;关于Roblox的业务，我最惊讶的不是游戏本身，而是公司对于基础架构的投入，两个点重点：个性化搜索和Roblox Cloud。 他们CTO说公司花了很多的资源投入去做个性化推荐和个性化搜索，个性化推荐很好理解，让各个年龄段的用户都能在平台找到自己爱玩的项目。 但是搜索，除了浏览器恐怕没几个平台这么认真。我理解这么做的目的就是为了适应老人和小孩，这两个年龄层都是记忆力较弱的，很容易会出现拼写错误的情况，所","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>&nbsp;三个半小时的投资者日会议视频看完了，视频组成是CEO讲话+高管讲解各业务线如何运作+分析师线上提问+CEO和CFO进行回复。 首先这个视频解决了我的疑惑点：虚拟货币Robux的汇率兑换，之前看招股书的时候其实公司没有写很详细，这个视频讲说Robux的兑换汇率是一美分，我理解应该是按美元汇率，相当于1美元=100Robux，个人感觉这虚拟币真挺值钱的，而且当开发者将Robux转换成真实的美元时，平台还会抽取佣金。 然后是变现方面，有两点我比较关心的：虚拟货币Robux和广告业务。 Robux之前很长时间是只支持单笔充值，直到最近公司才推出了订阅服务，然后现在他们还想做实体Robux卡、做月票、做会员体系，把Robux产品体系完善起来，我觉得想法真挺好的。 首席业务官 虽然公司是有广告品牌方面的计划，但是公司讲说不会是普通广告的形式，而是融入平台本身，就像现实世界公路边的广告牌那样，高管一再强调广告不会影响用户体验，虽然还没看到效果，但是我结合了一下科幻小说《雪崩》里的描述，我大概了解公司说的广告形态是什么样，总之，期待这样的广告模式有趣而且有效吧，毕竟真正优秀的产品是可以落地实现而不是画饼。 &nbsp;关于Roblox的业务，我最惊讶的不是游戏本身，而是公司对于基础架构的投入，两个点重点：个性化搜索和Roblox Cloud。 他们CTO说公司花了很多的资源投入去做个性化推荐和个性化搜索，个性化推荐很好理解，让各个年龄段的用户都能在平台找到自己爱玩的项目。 但是搜索，除了浏览器恐怕没几个平台这么认真。我理解这么做的目的就是为了适应老人和小孩，这两个年龄层都是记忆力较弱的，很容易会出现拼写错误的情况，所","text":"$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$ 三个半小时的投资者日会议视频看完了，视频组成是CEO讲话+高管讲解各业务线如何运作+分析师线上提问+CEO和CFO进行回复。 首先这个视频解决了我的疑惑点：虚拟货币Robux的汇率兑换，之前看招股书的时候其实公司没有写很详细，这个视频讲说Robux的兑换汇率是一美分，我理解应该是按美元汇率，相当于1美元=100Robux，个人感觉这虚拟币真挺值钱的，而且当开发者将Robux转换成真实的美元时，平台还会抽取佣金。 然后是变现方面，有两点我比较关心的：虚拟货币Robux和广告业务。 Robux之前很长时间是只支持单笔充值，直到最近公司才推出了订阅服务，然后现在他们还想做实体Robux卡、做月票、做会员体系，把Robux产品体系完善起来，我觉得想法真挺好的。 首席业务官 虽然公司是有广告品牌方面的计划，但是公司讲说不会是普通广告的形式，而是融入平台本身，就像现实世界公路边的广告牌那样，高管一再强调广告不会影响用户体验，虽然还没看到效果，但是我结合了一下科幻小说《雪崩》里的描述，我大概了解公司说的广告形态是什么样，总之，期待这样的广告模式有趣而且有效吧，毕竟真正优秀的产品是可以落地实现而不是画饼。 关于Roblox的业务，我最惊讶的不是游戏本身，而是公司对于基础架构的投入，两个点重点：个性化搜索和Roblox Cloud。 他们CTO说公司花了很多的资源投入去做个性化推荐和个性化搜索，个性化推荐很好理解，让各个年龄段的用户都能在平台找到自己爱玩的项目。 但是搜索，除了浏览器恐怕没几个平台这么认真。我理解这么做的目的就是为了适应老人和小孩，这两个年龄层都是记忆力较弱的，很容易会出现拼写错误的情况，所","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4acc5975e910fb16240729229e3042a","width":"1049","height":"520"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef7fd1bac2b5479e2f75eae01b4d8d2f","width":"688","height":"349"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccb666f8eadc1d151e3873de6a297040","width":"688","height":"362"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323065144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321013400,"gmtCreate":1615384945100,"gmtModify":1703488217966,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574925934110012","idStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go bull go","listText":"Go bull go","text":"Go bull go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321013400","repostId":"1157854868","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323916469,"gmtCreate":1615298566551,"gmtModify":1703486940921,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574925934110012","idStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good to know&nbsp;","listText":"Good to know&nbsp;","text":"Good to know","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323916469","repostId":"1135057078","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135057078","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615296628,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135057078?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-09 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 24 Best-Loved Stocks on Wall Street and Why That Matters<blockquote>华尔街24只最受欢迎的股票及其重要性</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135057078","media":"Barrons","summary":"One way to navigate the choppiness is to look for Wall Street’s best-loved stocks. They are the ones, presumably, that analysts have the most confidence in and will be able to weather whatever 2021 throws at them.A good definition of best-loved is stocks that are nearly universally rated Buy by the analysts covering them.Barron’s looked at the Russell 3000 Index to find a couple dozen that fit the bill. To be included on our list, the stocks had to meet three benchmarks. For starters, at least 1","content":"<p>Stocks are looking a little more sketchy lately—or a least a little more complicated.Inflation, a rotation out of&nbsp;growth&nbsp;into value,memes, vaccines and government&nbsp;stimulus&nbsp;are causing investors to reassess what’s next for the market.</p><p><blockquote>最近股市看起来更加粗略，或者至少更加复杂。通货膨胀、从增长转向价值、模因、疫苗和政府刺激措施正在促使投资者重新评估市场的下一步走势。</blockquote></p><p> One way&nbsp;to navigate the choppiness is to look for Wall Street’s best-loved stocks. They are the ones, presumably, that analysts have the most confidence in and will be able to weather whatever 2021 throws at them.</p><p><blockquote>应对波动的一种方法是寻找华尔街最受欢迎的股票。据推测，他们是分析师最有信心的人，他们将能够经受住2021年的任何考验。</blockquote></p><p> A good definition of best-loved is stocks that are nearly universally rated Buy by the analysts covering them.<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;looked at the&nbsp;Russell 3000 Index&nbsp;to find a couple dozen that fit the bill. To be included on our list, the stocks had to meet three benchmarks. For starters, at least 10 analysts have to cover the stock. There isn’t much use in declaring a stock well-loved if only one analyst rates it Buy. The companies also have to have no Sell ratings and market capitalizations greater than a few billion dollars.</p><p><blockquote>最受欢迎的一个很好的定义是那些几乎被分析师普遍评为买入的股票。<i>巴伦周刊</i>我查看了罗素3000指数，找到了几十个符合要求的指数。要被列入我们的名单，这些股票必须满足三个基准。首先，至少有10名分析师必须关注该股票。如果只有一位分析师给予买入评级，那么宣布一只股票深受喜爱就没有多大用处。这些公司还必须没有卖出评级且市值不得超过数十亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> We also excluded biotech stocks. There are well-loved biotech stocks, but buying one or two can be a dangerous strategy for many investors. Biotech stocks can jump—up or down, depending on the outcome of medical data. It can be better to simply hold a basket of biotech stocks instead of looking only at analyst ratings, which can lead investors to implicitly bet on one or two drug programs.</p><p><blockquote>我们还排除了生物科技股。有一些深受喜爱的生物科技股，但对于许多投资者来说，购买一两只可能是一个危险的策略。生物科技股可能会上涨或下跌，具体取决于医疗数据的结果。简单地持有一篮子生物技术股票可能会更好，而不是只看分析师的评级，这可能会导致投资者暗中押注一两个药物项目。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 3000’s best-loved 24 large companies, in descending order of market capitalization:Microsoft(MSFT),Amazon.com(AMZN), Google parent&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOGL),Conoco&nbsp;Phillips(COP), software providers&nbsp;Twilo(TWLO) and&nbsp;Ring&nbsp;Central(RING),Cheniere Energy(LNG), property owner,VICI Properties(VICI), auto lender&nbsp;Ally Financial(ALLY),GoDaddy(GDDY), sales tax manager&nbsp;Avalara(AVLR), drug development services provider&nbsp;PPD(PPD), material distributor&nbsp;Builders FirstSource(BLDR), footwear maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), lenderOneMain(ONF), optical products maker&nbsp;Lumentum(LITE), energy firm&nbsp;Chart Industries(GTLS), government and defense contractor&nbsp;Science Applications International(SAIC), software provider&nbsp;Medallia(MDLA),New Residential Investment(NRZ), software providerRapid7(RPD),Agree Realty(ADC), software providerTenable(TENB) and solar power company&nbsp;Sunnova Energy International(NOVA).</p><p><blockquote>Russell 3000指数中最受欢迎的24家大公司，按市值降序排列：微软(MSFT)、亚马逊(AMZN)、谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOGL)、康菲石油公司(COP)、软件提供商Twilo(TWLO)和Ring Central(RING)、Cheniere Energy(LNG)、房产所有者VICI Properties(VICI)、汽车贷款机构Ally Financial(ALLY)、GoDaddy(GDDY)、销售税经理Avalara(AVLR)、药物开发服务提供商PPD(PPD)、材料分销商Builders FirstSource(BLDR)、鞋类制造商lenderOneMain(ONF)、光学产品制造商Lumentum(LITE)、光学产品制造商Lumentum(LITE)、能源公司Chart Industries(GTLS)、能源公司Chart Industries(GTLS)、政府和国防承包商Science Applications International(SAIC)、软件提供商Rapid7(RPD)、Agree Realty(ADC)、软件提供商Rapid7(RPD)、Agree Realty(ADC)、软件提供商Tenable(TENB)和太阳能公司Sunnova Energy</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favorites of Analysts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师的最爱</b></blockquote></p><p> These stocks have among the highest buy-rating ratios</p><p><blockquote>这些股票的买入评级比率最高</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57a8da85765b4f9013b5ad629fd52b5d\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"801\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It’s quite a list covering many industries. The largest tech giants are in there as well as little-known software providers, shoe companies and drywall distributors. The companies are connected by analysts’ love for their stocks.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个涵盖许多行业的相当多的列表。最大的科技巨头以及鲜为人知的软件提供商、制鞋公司和干墙分销商都在那里。这些公司因分析师对其股票的热爱而联系在一起。</blockquote></p><p> There are 490 ratings on the two dozen; 469 of the ratings are Buy—about 96%. Cheniere, Ally, GoDaddy, Builders FirstSource, OneMain, Science Applications, New Residential and Sunnova are perfect. Every analyst covering those stocks rates shares Buy. The lowest Buy-rating ratio is Microsoft, with 93%.</p><p><blockquote>两打有490个收视率；469个评级为买入——约96%。Cheniere、Ally、GoDaddy、Builders FirstSource、OneMain、Science Applications、New Residential和Sunnova都是完美的。研究这些股票的每位分析师都将股票评级为买入。买入评级最低的是微软，为93%。</blockquote></p><p> Still, that’s pretty good. The&nbsp;average&nbsp;Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;is 60%.</p><p><blockquote>不过，这已经很好了。道琼斯工业平均指数股票的平均买入评级为60%。</blockquote></p><p> The price-to-earnings ratio for the group falls around 25 times estimated earnings for the coming 12 months. That’s a little higher than the comparable PE ratio of the&nbsp;S &amp; P 500.But that hasn’t hindered the 24 stocks. Shares are up about 55% on average over the past year. What’s more, only three of the 24 are down over that period.</p><p><blockquote>该集团的市盈率降至未来12个月预期收益的25倍左右。这略高于标准普尔500指数的可比市盈率。但这并没有阻碍这24只股票。过去一年股价平均上涨约55%。更重要的是，在此期间，24家公司中只有3家下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The average expected gain, based on&nbsp;analyst target prices, from current levels is about 27%. Typically, analyst target prices represent where analysts expect a stock to trade over the coming 12 months. The Sunnova average analyst target price is about $58 a share, almost 60% higher than recent levels. The Conoco target, on the other hand, is right where the stock is trading, but oil prices are moving up, which can help any oil producer stock.</p><p><blockquote>根据分析师目标价，当前水平的平均预期涨幅约为27%。通常，分析师目标价格代表分析师对股票未来12个月交易价格的预期。Sunnova分析师平均目标价约为每股58美元，比近期水平高出近60%。另一方面，康菲石油公司的目标就在该股的交易地点，但油价正在上涨，这可以帮助任何石油生产商的股票。</blockquote></p><p> There is no guarantee that analysts are right. But there are no guarantees in the stock market. What the high Buy-rating ratio does represent, however, is dozens of different analysts from many brokers have all arrived at the same conclusion. These are solid bets.</p><p><blockquote>不能保证分析师是对的。但是股票市场没有任何保证。然而，高买入评级确实代表了来自许多经纪商的数十位不同分析师都得出了相同的结论。这些都是可靠的赌注。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 24 Best-Loved Stocks on Wall Street and Why That Matters<blockquote>华尔街24只最受欢迎的股票及其重要性</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 24 Best-Loved Stocks on Wall Street and Why That Matters<blockquote>华尔街24只最受欢迎的股票及其重要性</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-09 21:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks are looking a little more sketchy lately—or a least a little more complicated.Inflation, a rotation out of&nbsp;growth&nbsp;into value,memes, vaccines and government&nbsp;stimulus&nbsp;are causing investors to reassess what’s next for the market.</p><p><blockquote>最近股市看起来更加粗略，或者至少更加复杂。通货膨胀、从增长转向价值、模因、疫苗和政府刺激措施正在促使投资者重新评估市场的下一步走势。</blockquote></p><p> One way&nbsp;to navigate the choppiness is to look for Wall Street’s best-loved stocks. They are the ones, presumably, that analysts have the most confidence in and will be able to weather whatever 2021 throws at them.</p><p><blockquote>应对波动的一种方法是寻找华尔街最受欢迎的股票。据推测，他们是分析师最有信心的人，他们将能够经受住2021年的任何考验。</blockquote></p><p> A good definition of best-loved is stocks that are nearly universally rated Buy by the analysts covering them.<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;looked at the&nbsp;Russell 3000 Index&nbsp;to find a couple dozen that fit the bill. To be included on our list, the stocks had to meet three benchmarks. For starters, at least 10 analysts have to cover the stock. There isn’t much use in declaring a stock well-loved if only one analyst rates it Buy. The companies also have to have no Sell ratings and market capitalizations greater than a few billion dollars.</p><p><blockquote>最受欢迎的一个很好的定义是那些几乎被分析师普遍评为买入的股票。<i>巴伦周刊</i>我查看了罗素3000指数，找到了几十个符合要求的指数。要被列入我们的名单，这些股票必须满足三个基准。首先，至少有10名分析师必须关注该股票。如果只有一位分析师给予买入评级，那么宣布一只股票深受喜爱就没有多大用处。这些公司还必须没有卖出评级且市值不得超过数十亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> We also excluded biotech stocks. There are well-loved biotech stocks, but buying one or two can be a dangerous strategy for many investors. Biotech stocks can jump—up or down, depending on the outcome of medical data. It can be better to simply hold a basket of biotech stocks instead of looking only at analyst ratings, which can lead investors to implicitly bet on one or two drug programs.</p><p><blockquote>我们还排除了生物科技股。有一些深受喜爱的生物科技股，但对于许多投资者来说，购买一两只可能是一个危险的策略。生物科技股可能会上涨或下跌，具体取决于医疗数据的结果。简单地持有一篮子生物技术股票可能会更好，而不是只看分析师的评级，这可能会导致投资者暗中押注一两个药物项目。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 3000’s best-loved 24 large companies, in descending order of market capitalization:Microsoft(MSFT),Amazon.com(AMZN), Google parent&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOGL),Conoco&nbsp;Phillips(COP), software providers&nbsp;Twilo(TWLO) and&nbsp;Ring&nbsp;Central(RING),Cheniere Energy(LNG), property owner,VICI Properties(VICI), auto lender&nbsp;Ally Financial(ALLY),GoDaddy(GDDY), sales tax manager&nbsp;Avalara(AVLR), drug development services provider&nbsp;PPD(PPD), material distributor&nbsp;Builders FirstSource(BLDR), footwear maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), lenderOneMain(ONF), optical products maker&nbsp;Lumentum(LITE), energy firm&nbsp;Chart Industries(GTLS), government and defense contractor&nbsp;Science Applications International(SAIC), software provider&nbsp;Medallia(MDLA),New Residential Investment(NRZ), software providerRapid7(RPD),Agree Realty(ADC), software providerTenable(TENB) and solar power company&nbsp;Sunnova Energy International(NOVA).</p><p><blockquote>Russell 3000指数中最受欢迎的24家大公司，按市值降序排列：微软(MSFT)、亚马逊(AMZN)、谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOGL)、康菲石油公司(COP)、软件提供商Twilo(TWLO)和Ring Central(RING)、Cheniere Energy(LNG)、房产所有者VICI Properties(VICI)、汽车贷款机构Ally Financial(ALLY)、GoDaddy(GDDY)、销售税经理Avalara(AVLR)、药物开发服务提供商PPD(PPD)、材料分销商Builders FirstSource(BLDR)、鞋类制造商lenderOneMain(ONF)、光学产品制造商Lumentum(LITE)、光学产品制造商Lumentum(LITE)、能源公司Chart Industries(GTLS)、能源公司Chart Industries(GTLS)、政府和国防承包商Science Applications International(SAIC)、软件提供商Rapid7(RPD)、Agree Realty(ADC)、软件提供商Rapid7(RPD)、Agree Realty(ADC)、软件提供商Tenable(TENB)和太阳能公司Sunnova Energy</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favorites of Analysts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师的最爱</b></blockquote></p><p> These stocks have among the highest buy-rating ratios</p><p><blockquote>这些股票的买入评级比率最高</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57a8da85765b4f9013b5ad629fd52b5d\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"801\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It’s quite a list covering many industries. The largest tech giants are in there as well as little-known software providers, shoe companies and drywall distributors. The companies are connected by analysts’ love for their stocks.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个涵盖许多行业的相当多的列表。最大的科技巨头以及鲜为人知的软件提供商、制鞋公司和干墙分销商都在那里。这些公司因分析师对其股票的热爱而联系在一起。</blockquote></p><p> There are 490 ratings on the two dozen; 469 of the ratings are Buy—about 96%. Cheniere, Ally, GoDaddy, Builders FirstSource, OneMain, Science Applications, New Residential and Sunnova are perfect. Every analyst covering those stocks rates shares Buy. The lowest Buy-rating ratio is Microsoft, with 93%.</p><p><blockquote>两打有490个收视率；469个评级为买入——约96%。Cheniere、Ally、GoDaddy、Builders FirstSource、OneMain、Science Applications、New Residential和Sunnova都是完美的。研究这些股票的每位分析师都将股票评级为买入。买入评级最低的是微软，为93%。</blockquote></p><p> Still, that’s pretty good. The&nbsp;average&nbsp;Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;is 60%.</p><p><blockquote>不过，这已经很好了。道琼斯工业平均指数股票的平均买入评级为60%。</blockquote></p><p> The price-to-earnings ratio for the group falls around 25 times estimated earnings for the coming 12 months. That’s a little higher than the comparable PE ratio of the&nbsp;S &amp; P 500.But that hasn’t hindered the 24 stocks. Shares are up about 55% on average over the past year. What’s more, only three of the 24 are down over that period.</p><p><blockquote>该集团的市盈率降至未来12个月预期收益的25倍左右。这略高于标准普尔500指数的可比市盈率。但这并没有阻碍这24只股票。过去一年股价平均上涨约55%。更重要的是，在此期间，24家公司中只有3家下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The average expected gain, based on&nbsp;analyst target prices, from current levels is about 27%. Typically, analyst target prices represent where analysts expect a stock to trade over the coming 12 months. The Sunnova average analyst target price is about $58 a share, almost 60% higher than recent levels. The Conoco target, on the other hand, is right where the stock is trading, but oil prices are moving up, which can help any oil producer stock.</p><p><blockquote>根据分析师目标价，当前水平的平均预期涨幅约为27%。通常，分析师目标价格代表分析师对股票未来12个月交易价格的预期。Sunnova分析师平均目标价约为每股58美元，比近期水平高出近60%。另一方面，康菲石油公司的目标就在该股的交易地点，但油价正在上涨，这可以帮助任何石油生产商的股票。</blockquote></p><p> There is no guarantee that analysts are right. But there are no guarantees in the stock market. What the high Buy-rating ratio does represent, however, is dozens of different analysts from many brokers have all arrived at the same conclusion. These are solid bets.</p><p><blockquote>不能保证分析师是对的。但是股票市场没有任何保证。然而，高买入评级确实代表了来自许多经纪商的数十位不同分析师都得出了相同的结论。这些都是可靠的赌注。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-wall-streets-24-best-loved-stocks-can-help-tell-whats-ahead-51615250420?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","DECK":"Deckers Outdoor Corporation","VICI":"Vici Properties","BLDR":"Builders FirstSource","COP":"康菲石油","RING":"iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF","LNG":"Cheniere Energy Inc","TENB":"Tenable Holdings Inc.","ADC":"艾格里房产","PPD":"PPD, Inc.","TWLO":"Twilio Inc","LITE":"Lumentum Holdings Inc.","GDDY":"Godaddy Inc.","AVLR":"Avalara Inc","ALLY":"Ally Financial Inc.","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AMZN":"亚马逊","RPD":"Rapid7, Inc.","MDLA":"Medallia, Inc.","SAIC":"Science Applications Internation","GTLS":"查特工业"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-wall-streets-24-best-loved-stocks-can-help-tell-whats-ahead-51615250420?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135057078","content_text":"Stocks are looking a little more sketchy lately—or a least a little more complicated.Inflation, a rotation out of growth into value,memes, vaccines and government stimulus are causing investors to reassess what’s next for the market.\nOne way to navigate the choppiness is to look for Wall Street’s best-loved stocks. They are the ones, presumably, that analysts have the most confidence in and will be able to weather whatever 2021 throws at them.\nA good definition of best-loved is stocks that are nearly universally rated Buy by the analysts covering them.Barron’s looked at the Russell 3000 Index to find a couple dozen that fit the bill. To be included on our list, the stocks had to meet three benchmarks. For starters, at least 10 analysts have to cover the stock. There isn’t much use in declaring a stock well-loved if only one analyst rates it Buy. The companies also have to have no Sell ratings and market capitalizations greater than a few billion dollars.\nWe also excluded biotech stocks. There are well-loved biotech stocks, but buying one or two can be a dangerous strategy for many investors. Biotech stocks can jump—up or down, depending on the outcome of medical data. It can be better to simply hold a basket of biotech stocks instead of looking only at analyst ratings, which can lead investors to implicitly bet on one or two drug programs.\nThe Russell 3000’s best-loved 24 large companies, in descending order of market capitalization:Microsoft(MSFT),Amazon.com(AMZN), Google parent Alphabet(GOOGL),Conoco Phillips(COP), software providers Twilo(TWLO) and Ring Central(RING),Cheniere Energy(LNG), property owner,VICI Properties(VICI), auto lender Ally Financial(ALLY),GoDaddy(GDDY), sales tax manager Avalara(AVLR), drug development services provider PPD(PPD), material distributor Builders FirstSource(BLDR), footwear maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), lenderOneMain(ONF), optical products maker Lumentum(LITE), energy firm Chart Industries(GTLS), government and defense contractor Science Applications International(SAIC), software provider Medallia(MDLA),New Residential Investment(NRZ), software providerRapid7(RPD),Agree Realty(ADC), software providerTenable(TENB) and solar power company Sunnova Energy International(NOVA).\nFavorites of Analysts\nThese stocks have among the highest buy-rating ratios\n\nIt’s quite a list covering many industries. The largest tech giants are in there as well as little-known software providers, shoe companies and drywall distributors. The companies are connected by analysts’ love for their stocks.\nThere are 490 ratings on the two dozen; 469 of the ratings are Buy—about 96%. Cheniere, Ally, GoDaddy, Builders FirstSource, OneMain, Science Applications, New Residential and Sunnova are perfect. Every analyst covering those stocks rates shares Buy. The lowest Buy-rating ratio is Microsoft, with 93%.\nStill, that’s pretty good. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 60%.\nThe price-to-earnings ratio for the group falls around 25 times estimated earnings for the coming 12 months. That’s a little higher than the comparable PE ratio of the S & P 500.But that hasn’t hindered the 24 stocks. Shares are up about 55% on average over the past year. What’s more, only three of the 24 are down over that period.\nThe average expected gain, based on analyst target prices, from current levels is about 27%. Typically, analyst target prices represent where analysts expect a stock to trade over the coming 12 months. The Sunnova average analyst target price is about $58 a share, almost 60% higher than recent levels. The Conoco target, on the other hand, is right where the stock is trading, but oil prices are moving up, which can help any oil producer stock.\nThere is no guarantee that analysts are right. But there are no guarantees in the stock market. What the high Buy-rating ratio does represent, however, is dozens of different analysts from many brokers have all arrived at the same conclusion. These are solid bets.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VICI":0.9,"ONFA":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"RING":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"ADC":0.9,"RPD":0.9,"NOVA":0.9,"GTLS":0.9,"ALLY":0.9,"SAIC":0.9,"LNG":0.9,"COP":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"AVLR":0.9,"TENB":0.9,"BLDR":0.9,"MDLA":0.9,"LITE":0.9,"PPD":0.9,"TWLO":0.9,"NRZ":0.9,"GDDY":0.9,"DECK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329683912,"gmtCreate":1615242728036,"gmtModify":1703486088386,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574925934110012","idStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good article&nbsp;","listText":"Good article&nbsp;","text":"Good article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329683912","repostId":"1132314005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132314005","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615211001,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132314005?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-08 21:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How to handle market declines<blockquote>如何应对市场下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132314005","media":"Capital Group","summary":"You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.\nNobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demo","content":"<p>You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.</p><p><blockquote>如果你不害怕失去，你就不是人类。</blockquote></p><p> Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demonstrated this with his loss aversion theory, showing that people feel the pain of losing money more than they enjoy gains. The natural instinct is to flee the market when it starts to plummet, just as greed prompts people to jump back in when stocks are skyrocketing. Both can have negative impacts.</p><p><blockquote>诺贝尔奖获得者心理学家丹尼尔·卡尼曼用他的损失厌恶理论证明了这一点，表明人们更多地感受到损失的痛苦，而不是享受收益。当市场开始暴跌时，人们的本能是逃离市场，就像当股票暴涨时，贪婪会促使人们重新投入市场一样。两者都会产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> But smart investing can overcome the power of emotion by focusing on relevant research, solid data and proven strategies. Here are seven principles that can help fight the urge to make emotional decisions in times of market turmoil.</p><p><blockquote>但明智的投资可以通过专注于相关研究、可靠的数据和经过验证的策略来克服情绪的力量。这里有七个原则可以帮助你在市场动荡时期抑制情绪化决策的冲动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Market declines are part of investing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.市场下跌是投资的一部分</b></blockquote></p><p> Stocks have risen steadily for most of the last decade, but history tells us that stock market declines are an inevitable part of investing. The good news is that corrections (defined as a 10% or more decline), bear markets (an extended 20% or more decline) and other challenging patches haven’t lasted forever.</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年的大部分时间里，股市一直在稳步上涨，但历史告诉我们，股市下跌是投资不可避免的一部分。好消息是，调整（定义为下跌10%或以上）、熊市（下跌20%或以上）和其他具有挑战性的时期并没有永远持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de01aaa90e8493bebe0ce8650722d2a9\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"359\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 Composite Index has typically dipped at least 10% about once a year, and 20% or more about every six years, according to data from 1950 to 2019. While past results are not predictive of future results, each downturn has been followed by a recovery and a new market high.</p><p><blockquote>根据1950年至2019年的数据，标准普尔500综合指数通常每年至少下跌10%，每六年下跌20%或更多。虽然过去的结果并不能预测未来的结果，但每次低迷之后都会出现复苏和市场新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Time in the market matters, not market timing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.重要的是市场时间，而不是市场时机</b></blockquote></p><p> No one can accurately predict short-term market moves, and investors who sit on the sidelines risk losing out on periods of meaningful price appreciation that follow downturns.</p><p><blockquote>没有人能够准确预测短期市场走势，袖手旁观的投资者可能会错过经济低迷后有意义的价格升值时期。</blockquote></p><p> Every S&amp;P 500 decline of 15% or more, from 1929 through 2019, has been followed by a recovery. The average return in the first year after each of these declines was 54%.</p><p><blockquote>从1929年到2019年，标普500每下降15%或以上，都会出现复苏。每次下跌后第一年的平均回报率为54%。</blockquote></p><p> Even missing out on just a few trading days can take a toll. A hypothetical investment of $1,000 in the S&amp;P 500 made in 2010 would have grown to more than $2,800 by the end of 2019. But if an investor missed just the 10 best trading days during that period, he or she would have ended up with 33% less.</p><p><blockquote>即使错过几个交易日也会造成损失。假设2010年对标普500的投资为1,000美元，到2019年底将增长到2,800多美元。但如果投资者错过了在此期间最好的10个交易日，他或她最终的收益就会减少33%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f6b5b3ae6b57cc31f1af5aebbc17fa2\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"517\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Emotional investing can be hazardous</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.情感投资可能是危险的</b></blockquote></p><p> Kahneman won his Nobel Prize in 2002 for his work in behavioral economics, a field that investigates how individuals make financial decisions. A key finding of behavioral economists is that people often act irrationally when making such choices.</p><p><blockquote>卡尼曼因其在行为经济学方面的工作获得了2002年的诺贝尔奖，该领域研究个人如何做出财务决策。行为经济学家的一个关键发现是，人们在做出这样的选择时往往会做出非理性的行为。</blockquote></p><p> Emotional reactions to market events are perfectly normal. Investors should expect to feel nervous when markets decline, but it’s the actions taken during such periods that can mean the difference between investment success and shortfall.</p><p><blockquote>对市场事件的情绪反应是完全正常的。当市场下跌时，投资者应该会感到紧张，但在此期间采取的行动可能意味着投资成功和失败之间的区别。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce214d221fe60c0d520aa334e3d7be7\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"448\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> One way to encourage rational investment decision-making is to understand the fundamentals of&nbsp;behavioral economics. Recognizing behaviors like anchoring, confirmation bias and availability bias may help investors identify potential mistakes before they make them.</p><p><blockquote>鼓励理性投资决策的一个方法是理解行为经济学的基本原理。识别锚定、确认偏差和可用性偏差等行为可以帮助投资者在犯潜在错误之前识别它们。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Make a plan and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.制定计划并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> Creating and adhering to a thoughtfully constructed investment plan is another way to avoid making short-sighted investment decisions — particularly when markets move lower. The plan should take into account a number of factors, including risk tolerance and short- and long-term goals.</p><p><blockquote>制定并坚持深思熟虑的投资计划是避免做出短视投资决策的另一种方法——尤其是当市场走低时。该计划应考虑许多因素，包括风险承受能力以及短期和长期目标。</blockquote></p><p> One way to avoid futile attempts to time the market is with dollar cost averaging, where a fixed amount of money is invested at regular intervals, regardless of market ups and downs. This approach creates a strategy in which more shares are purchased at lower prices and fewer shares are purchased at higher prices. Over time investors pay less, on average, per share. Regular investing does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Investors should consider their willingness to keep investing when share prices are declining.</p><p><blockquote>避免徒劳地尝试把握市场时机的一种方法是美元成本平均法，即无论市场涨跌如何，定期投资固定金额的资金。这种方法创建了一种策略，其中以较低的价格购买更多股票，以较高的价格购买更少股票。随着时间的推移，投资者平均每股支付的费用会减少。定期投资并不能确保盈利或防止损失。投资者应考虑在股价下跌时继续投资的意愿。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c40068e959546f5e54c0a77a783a038b\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"501\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Retirement plans, to which investors make automatic contributions with every paycheck, are a prime example of dollar cost averaging.</p><p><blockquote>投资者用每份薪水自动向退休计划缴款，这是平均成本法的一个典型例子。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Diversification matters</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、多元化事项</b></blockquote></p><p> A diversified portfolio doesn’t guarantee profits or provide assurances that investments won’t decrease in value, but it does help lower risk. By spreading investments across a variety of asset classes, investors can buffer the effects of volatility on their portfolios. Overall returns won’t reach the highest highs of any single investment — but they won’t hit the lowest lows either.</p><p><blockquote>多元化的投资组合并不能保证利润或保证投资不会贬值，但它确实有助于降低风险。通过将投资分散到各种资产类别，投资者可以缓冲波动对其投资组合的影响。总体回报不会达到任何单一投资的最高点，但也不会达到最低点。</blockquote></p><p> For investors who want to avoid some of the stress of downturns, diversification can help lower volatility.</p><p><blockquote>对于想要避免经济低迷压力的投资者来说，多元化有助于降低波动性。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6b891f36b43c3ca3b7f9285cf8d0ca4\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"645\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>6. Fixed income can help bring balance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.固定收益有助于带来平衡</b></blockquote></p><p> Stocks are important building blocks of a diversified portfolio, but bonds can provide an essential counterbalance. That’s because bonds typically have low correlation to the stock market, meaning that they have tended to zig when the stock market zagged.</p><p><blockquote>股票是多元化投资组合的重要组成部分，但债券可以提供重要的平衡。这是因为债券通常与股市的相关性较低，这意味着当股市波动时，债券往往会波动。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/890a63f81150f3bfa535786be314ddea\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"537\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> What’s more, bonds with a low equity correlation can potentially help soften the impact of stock market losses on your overall portfolio. Funds providing this diversification can help create durable portfolios, and investors should seek bond funds with strong track records of positive returns through a variety of markets.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，股票相关性较低的债券可能有助于减轻股市损失对您整体投资组合的影响。提供这种多元化的基金可以帮助创建持久的投资组合，投资者应该通过各种市场寻找具有良好正回报记录的债券基金。</blockquote></p><p> Though bonds may not be able to match the growth potential of stocks, they have often shown resilience in past equity declines. For example, U.S. core bonds were flat or positive in five of the last six corrections.</p><p><blockquote>尽管债券可能无法与股票的增长潜力相匹配，但它们在过去的股市下跌中往往表现出弹性。例如，美国核心债券在过去六次调整中有五次持平或上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7. The market tends to reward long-term investors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7.市场倾向于回报长期投资者</b></blockquote></p><p> Is it reasonable to expect 30% returns every year? Of course not. And if stocks have moved lower in recent weeks, you shouldn’t expect that to be the start of a long-term trend, either. Behavioral economics tells us recent events carry an outsized influence on our perceptions and decisions.</p><p><blockquote>期望每年30%的回报合理吗？当然不是。如果股市最近几周走低，你也不应该指望这是长期趋势的开始。行为经济学告诉我们，最近的事件对我们的感知和决策有着巨大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> It’s always important to maintain a long-term perspective, but especially when markets are declining. Although stocks rise and fall in the short term, they’ve tended to reward investors over longer periods of time. Even including downturns, the S&amp;P 500’s average annual return over all 10-year periods from 1937 to 2019 was 10.47%.</p><p><blockquote>保持长期观点总是很重要，尤其是在市场下跌的时候。尽管股票在短期内上涨和下跌，但它们往往会在较长时间内回报投资者。即使包括低迷时期，标普500在1937年至2019年的所有10年期间的平均年回报率为10.47%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a43c92755d55227a882d674690c39c3\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"532\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It’s natural for emotions to bubble up during periods of volatility. Those investors who can tune out the news and focus on their long-term goals are better positioned to plot out a wise investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在波动时期，情绪高涨是很自然的。那些能够忽略新闻并专注于长期目标的投资者能够更好地制定明智的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1615210994562","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to handle market declines<blockquote>如何应对市场下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to handle market declines<blockquote>如何应对市场下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Capital Group</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-08 21:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.</p><p><blockquote>如果你不害怕失去，你就不是人类。</blockquote></p><p> Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demonstrated this with his loss aversion theory, showing that people feel the pain of losing money more than they enjoy gains. The natural instinct is to flee the market when it starts to plummet, just as greed prompts people to jump back in when stocks are skyrocketing. Both can have negative impacts.</p><p><blockquote>诺贝尔奖获得者心理学家丹尼尔·卡尼曼用他的损失厌恶理论证明了这一点，表明人们更多地感受到损失的痛苦，而不是享受收益。当市场开始暴跌时，人们的本能是逃离市场，就像当股票暴涨时，贪婪会促使人们重新投入市场一样。两者都会产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> But smart investing can overcome the power of emotion by focusing on relevant research, solid data and proven strategies. Here are seven principles that can help fight the urge to make emotional decisions in times of market turmoil.</p><p><blockquote>但明智的投资可以通过专注于相关研究、可靠的数据和经过验证的策略来克服情绪的力量。这里有七个原则可以帮助你在市场动荡时期抑制情绪化决策的冲动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Market declines are part of investing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.市场下跌是投资的一部分</b></blockquote></p><p> Stocks have risen steadily for most of the last decade, but history tells us that stock market declines are an inevitable part of investing. The good news is that corrections (defined as a 10% or more decline), bear markets (an extended 20% or more decline) and other challenging patches haven’t lasted forever.</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年的大部分时间里，股市一直在稳步上涨，但历史告诉我们，股市下跌是投资不可避免的一部分。好消息是，调整（定义为下跌10%或以上）、熊市（下跌20%或以上）和其他具有挑战性的时期并没有永远持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de01aaa90e8493bebe0ce8650722d2a9\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"359\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 Composite Index has typically dipped at least 10% about once a year, and 20% or more about every six years, according to data from 1950 to 2019. While past results are not predictive of future results, each downturn has been followed by a recovery and a new market high.</p><p><blockquote>根据1950年至2019年的数据，标准普尔500综合指数通常每年至少下跌10%，每六年下跌20%或更多。虽然过去的结果并不能预测未来的结果，但每次低迷之后都会出现复苏和市场新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Time in the market matters, not market timing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.重要的是市场时间，而不是市场时机</b></blockquote></p><p> No one can accurately predict short-term market moves, and investors who sit on the sidelines risk losing out on periods of meaningful price appreciation that follow downturns.</p><p><blockquote>没有人能够准确预测短期市场走势，袖手旁观的投资者可能会错过经济低迷后有意义的价格升值时期。</blockquote></p><p> Every S&amp;P 500 decline of 15% or more, from 1929 through 2019, has been followed by a recovery. The average return in the first year after each of these declines was 54%.</p><p><blockquote>从1929年到2019年，标普500每下降15%或以上，都会出现复苏。每次下跌后第一年的平均回报率为54%。</blockquote></p><p> Even missing out on just a few trading days can take a toll. A hypothetical investment of $1,000 in the S&amp;P 500 made in 2010 would have grown to more than $2,800 by the end of 2019. But if an investor missed just the 10 best trading days during that period, he or she would have ended up with 33% less.</p><p><blockquote>即使错过几个交易日也会造成损失。假设2010年对标普500的投资为1,000美元，到2019年底将增长到2,800多美元。但如果投资者错过了在此期间最好的10个交易日，他或她最终的收益就会减少33%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f6b5b3ae6b57cc31f1af5aebbc17fa2\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"517\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Emotional investing can be hazardous</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.情感投资可能是危险的</b></blockquote></p><p> Kahneman won his Nobel Prize in 2002 for his work in behavioral economics, a field that investigates how individuals make financial decisions. A key finding of behavioral economists is that people often act irrationally when making such choices.</p><p><blockquote>卡尼曼因其在行为经济学方面的工作获得了2002年的诺贝尔奖，该领域研究个人如何做出财务决策。行为经济学家的一个关键发现是，人们在做出这样的选择时往往会做出非理性的行为。</blockquote></p><p> Emotional reactions to market events are perfectly normal. Investors should expect to feel nervous when markets decline, but it’s the actions taken during such periods that can mean the difference between investment success and shortfall.</p><p><blockquote>对市场事件的情绪反应是完全正常的。当市场下跌时，投资者应该会感到紧张，但在此期间采取的行动可能意味着投资成功和失败之间的区别。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce214d221fe60c0d520aa334e3d7be7\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"448\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> One way to encourage rational investment decision-making is to understand the fundamentals of&nbsp;behavioral economics. Recognizing behaviors like anchoring, confirmation bias and availability bias may help investors identify potential mistakes before they make them.</p><p><blockquote>鼓励理性投资决策的一个方法是理解行为经济学的基本原理。识别锚定、确认偏差和可用性偏差等行为可以帮助投资者在犯潜在错误之前识别它们。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Make a plan and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.制定计划并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> Creating and adhering to a thoughtfully constructed investment plan is another way to avoid making short-sighted investment decisions — particularly when markets move lower. The plan should take into account a number of factors, including risk tolerance and short- and long-term goals.</p><p><blockquote>制定并坚持深思熟虑的投资计划是避免做出短视投资决策的另一种方法——尤其是当市场走低时。该计划应考虑许多因素，包括风险承受能力以及短期和长期目标。</blockquote></p><p> One way to avoid futile attempts to time the market is with dollar cost averaging, where a fixed amount of money is invested at regular intervals, regardless of market ups and downs. This approach creates a strategy in which more shares are purchased at lower prices and fewer shares are purchased at higher prices. Over time investors pay less, on average, per share. Regular investing does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Investors should consider their willingness to keep investing when share prices are declining.</p><p><blockquote>避免徒劳地尝试把握市场时机的一种方法是美元成本平均法，即无论市场涨跌如何，定期投资固定金额的资金。这种方法创建了一种策略，其中以较低的价格购买更多股票，以较高的价格购买更少股票。随着时间的推移，投资者平均每股支付的费用会减少。定期投资并不能确保盈利或防止损失。投资者应考虑在股价下跌时继续投资的意愿。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c40068e959546f5e54c0a77a783a038b\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"501\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Retirement plans, to which investors make automatic contributions with every paycheck, are a prime example of dollar cost averaging.</p><p><blockquote>投资者用每份薪水自动向退休计划缴款，这是平均成本法的一个典型例子。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Diversification matters</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、多元化事项</b></blockquote></p><p> A diversified portfolio doesn’t guarantee profits or provide assurances that investments won’t decrease in value, but it does help lower risk. By spreading investments across a variety of asset classes, investors can buffer the effects of volatility on their portfolios. Overall returns won’t reach the highest highs of any single investment — but they won’t hit the lowest lows either.</p><p><blockquote>多元化的投资组合并不能保证利润或保证投资不会贬值，但它确实有助于降低风险。通过将投资分散到各种资产类别，投资者可以缓冲波动对其投资组合的影响。总体回报不会达到任何单一投资的最高点，但也不会达到最低点。</blockquote></p><p> For investors who want to avoid some of the stress of downturns, diversification can help lower volatility.</p><p><blockquote>对于想要避免经济低迷压力的投资者来说，多元化有助于降低波动性。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6b891f36b43c3ca3b7f9285cf8d0ca4\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"645\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>6. Fixed income can help bring balance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.固定收益有助于带来平衡</b></blockquote></p><p> Stocks are important building blocks of a diversified portfolio, but bonds can provide an essential counterbalance. That’s because bonds typically have low correlation to the stock market, meaning that they have tended to zig when the stock market zagged.</p><p><blockquote>股票是多元化投资组合的重要组成部分，但债券可以提供重要的平衡。这是因为债券通常与股市的相关性较低，这意味着当股市波动时，债券往往会波动。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/890a63f81150f3bfa535786be314ddea\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"537\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> What’s more, bonds with a low equity correlation can potentially help soften the impact of stock market losses on your overall portfolio. Funds providing this diversification can help create durable portfolios, and investors should seek bond funds with strong track records of positive returns through a variety of markets.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，股票相关性较低的债券可能有助于减轻股市损失对您整体投资组合的影响。提供这种多元化的基金可以帮助创建持久的投资组合，投资者应该通过各种市场寻找具有良好正回报记录的债券基金。</blockquote></p><p> Though bonds may not be able to match the growth potential of stocks, they have often shown resilience in past equity declines. For example, U.S. core bonds were flat or positive in five of the last six corrections.</p><p><blockquote>尽管债券可能无法与股票的增长潜力相匹配，但它们在过去的股市下跌中往往表现出弹性。例如，美国核心债券在过去六次调整中有五次持平或上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7. The market tends to reward long-term investors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7.市场倾向于回报长期投资者</b></blockquote></p><p> Is it reasonable to expect 30% returns every year? Of course not. And if stocks have moved lower in recent weeks, you shouldn’t expect that to be the start of a long-term trend, either. Behavioral economics tells us recent events carry an outsized influence on our perceptions and decisions.</p><p><blockquote>期望每年30%的回报合理吗？当然不是。如果股市最近几周走低，你也不应该指望这是长期趋势的开始。行为经济学告诉我们，最近的事件对我们的感知和决策有着巨大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> It’s always important to maintain a long-term perspective, but especially when markets are declining. Although stocks rise and fall in the short term, they’ve tended to reward investors over longer periods of time. Even including downturns, the S&amp;P 500’s average annual return over all 10-year periods from 1937 to 2019 was 10.47%.</p><p><blockquote>保持长期观点总是很重要，尤其是在市场下跌的时候。尽管股票在短期内上涨和下跌，但它们往往会在较长时间内回报投资者。即使包括低迷时期，标普500在1937年至2019年的所有10年期间的平均年回报率为10.47%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a43c92755d55227a882d674690c39c3\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"532\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It’s natural for emotions to bubble up during periods of volatility. Those investors who can tune out the news and focus on their long-term goals are better positioned to plot out a wise investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在波动时期，情绪高涨是很自然的。那些能够忽略新闻并专注于长期目标的投资者能够更好地制定明智的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/handle-market-declines.html\">Capital Group</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/handle-market-declines.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132314005","content_text":"You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.\nNobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demonstrated this with his loss aversion theory, showing that people feel the pain of losing money more than they enjoy gains. The natural instinct is to flee the market when it starts to plummet, just as greed prompts people to jump back in when stocks are skyrocketing. Both can have negative impacts.\nBut smart investing can overcome the power of emotion by focusing on relevant research, solid data and proven strategies. Here are seven principles that can help fight the urge to make emotional decisions in times of market turmoil.\n1. Market declines are part of investing\nStocks have risen steadily for most of the last decade, but history tells us that stock market declines are an inevitable part of investing. The good news is that corrections (defined as a 10% or more decline), bear markets (an extended 20% or more decline) and other challenging patches haven’t lasted forever.\n\nThe Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Index has typically dipped at least 10% about once a year, and 20% or more about every six years, according to data from 1950 to 2019. While past results are not predictive of future results, each downturn has been followed by a recovery and a new market high.\n2. Time in the market matters, not market timing\nNo one can accurately predict short-term market moves, and investors who sit on the sidelines risk losing out on periods of meaningful price appreciation that follow downturns.\nEvery S&P 500 decline of 15% or more, from 1929 through 2019, has been followed by a recovery. The average return in the first year after each of these declines was 54%.\nEven missing out on just a few trading days can take a toll. A hypothetical investment of $1,000 in the S&P 500 made in 2010 would have grown to more than $2,800 by the end of 2019. But if an investor missed just the 10 best trading days during that period, he or she would have ended up with 33% less.\n\n3. Emotional investing can be hazardous\nKahneman won his Nobel Prize in 2002 for his work in behavioral economics, a field that investigates how individuals make financial decisions. A key finding of behavioral economists is that people often act irrationally when making such choices.\nEmotional reactions to market events are perfectly normal. Investors should expect to feel nervous when markets decline, but it’s the actions taken during such periods that can mean the difference between investment success and shortfall.\n\nOne way to encourage rational investment decision-making is to understand the fundamentals of behavioral economics. Recognizing behaviors like anchoring, confirmation bias and availability bias may help investors identify potential mistakes before they make them.\n4. Make a plan and stick to it\nCreating and adhering to a thoughtfully constructed investment plan is another way to avoid making short-sighted investment decisions — particularly when markets move lower. The plan should take into account a number of factors, including risk tolerance and short- and long-term goals.\nOne way to avoid futile attempts to time the market is with dollar cost averaging, where a fixed amount of money is invested at regular intervals, regardless of market ups and downs. This approach creates a strategy in which more shares are purchased at lower prices and fewer shares are purchased at higher prices. Over time investors pay less, on average, per share. Regular investing does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Investors should consider their willingness to keep investing when share prices are declining.\n\nRetirement plans, to which investors make automatic contributions with every paycheck, are a prime example of dollar cost averaging.\n5. Diversification matters\nA diversified portfolio doesn’t guarantee profits or provide assurances that investments won’t decrease in value, but it does help lower risk. By spreading investments across a variety of asset classes, investors can buffer the effects of volatility on their portfolios. Overall returns won’t reach the highest highs of any single investment — but they won’t hit the lowest lows either.\nFor investors who want to avoid some of the stress of downturns, diversification can help lower volatility.\n\n6. Fixed income can help bring balance\nStocks are important building blocks of a diversified portfolio, but bonds can provide an essential counterbalance. That’s because bonds typically have low correlation to the stock market, meaning that they have tended to zig when the stock market zagged.\n\nWhat’s more, bonds with a low equity correlation can potentially help soften the impact of stock market losses on your overall portfolio. Funds providing this diversification can help create durable portfolios, and investors should seek bond funds with strong track records of positive returns through a variety of markets.\nThough bonds may not be able to match the growth potential of stocks, they have often shown resilience in past equity declines. For example, U.S. core bonds were flat or positive in five of the last six corrections.\n7. The market tends to reward long-term investors\nIs it reasonable to expect 30% returns every year? Of course not. And if stocks have moved lower in recent weeks, you shouldn’t expect that to be the start of a long-term trend, either. Behavioral economics tells us recent events carry an outsized influence on our perceptions and decisions.\nIt’s always important to maintain a long-term perspective, but especially when markets are declining. Although stocks rise and fall in the short term, they’ve tended to reward investors over longer periods of time. Even including downturns, the S&P 500’s average annual return over all 10-year periods from 1937 to 2019 was 10.47%.\n\nIt’s natural for emotions to bubble up during periods of volatility. Those investors who can tune out the news and focus on their long-term goals are better positioned to plot out a wise investment strategy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320484938,"gmtCreate":1615168494524,"gmtModify":1703485106205,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574925934110012","idStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>Well, let's see if Alibaba can bounce back&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>Well, let's see if Alibaba can bounce back&nbsp;","text":"$Alibaba(09988)$Well, let's see if Alibaba can bounce back","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/974b8c9765cb6a3fa1a6ae7ed03d6428","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320484938","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":329683912,"gmtCreate":1615242728036,"gmtModify":1703486088386,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good article&nbsp;","listText":"Good article&nbsp;","text":"Good article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329683912","repostId":"1132314005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132314005","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615211001,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132314005?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-08 21:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How to handle market declines<blockquote>如何应对市场下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132314005","media":"Capital Group","summary":"You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.\nNobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demo","content":"<p>You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.</p><p><blockquote>如果你不害怕失去，你就不是人类。</blockquote></p><p> Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demonstrated this with his loss aversion theory, showing that people feel the pain of losing money more than they enjoy gains. The natural instinct is to flee the market when it starts to plummet, just as greed prompts people to jump back in when stocks are skyrocketing. Both can have negative impacts.</p><p><blockquote>诺贝尔奖获得者心理学家丹尼尔·卡尼曼用他的损失厌恶理论证明了这一点，表明人们更多地感受到损失的痛苦，而不是享受收益。当市场开始暴跌时，人们的本能是逃离市场，就像当股票暴涨时，贪婪会促使人们重新投入市场一样。两者都会产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> But smart investing can overcome the power of emotion by focusing on relevant research, solid data and proven strategies. Here are seven principles that can help fight the urge to make emotional decisions in times of market turmoil.</p><p><blockquote>但明智的投资可以通过专注于相关研究、可靠的数据和经过验证的策略来克服情绪的力量。这里有七个原则可以帮助你在市场动荡时期抑制情绪化决策的冲动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Market declines are part of investing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.市场下跌是投资的一部分</b></blockquote></p><p> Stocks have risen steadily for most of the last decade, but history tells us that stock market declines are an inevitable part of investing. The good news is that corrections (defined as a 10% or more decline), bear markets (an extended 20% or more decline) and other challenging patches haven’t lasted forever.</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年的大部分时间里，股市一直在稳步上涨，但历史告诉我们，股市下跌是投资不可避免的一部分。好消息是，调整（定义为下跌10%或以上）、熊市（下跌20%或以上）和其他具有挑战性的时期并没有永远持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de01aaa90e8493bebe0ce8650722d2a9\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"359\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 Composite Index has typically dipped at least 10% about once a year, and 20% or more about every six years, according to data from 1950 to 2019. While past results are not predictive of future results, each downturn has been followed by a recovery and a new market high.</p><p><blockquote>根据1950年至2019年的数据，标准普尔500综合指数通常每年至少下跌10%，每六年下跌20%或更多。虽然过去的结果并不能预测未来的结果，但每次低迷之后都会出现复苏和市场新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Time in the market matters, not market timing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.重要的是市场时间，而不是市场时机</b></blockquote></p><p> No one can accurately predict short-term market moves, and investors who sit on the sidelines risk losing out on periods of meaningful price appreciation that follow downturns.</p><p><blockquote>没有人能够准确预测短期市场走势，袖手旁观的投资者可能会错过经济低迷后有意义的价格升值时期。</blockquote></p><p> Every S&amp;P 500 decline of 15% or more, from 1929 through 2019, has been followed by a recovery. The average return in the first year after each of these declines was 54%.</p><p><blockquote>从1929年到2019年，标普500每下降15%或以上，都会出现复苏。每次下跌后第一年的平均回报率为54%。</blockquote></p><p> Even missing out on just a few trading days can take a toll. A hypothetical investment of $1,000 in the S&amp;P 500 made in 2010 would have grown to more than $2,800 by the end of 2019. But if an investor missed just the 10 best trading days during that period, he or she would have ended up with 33% less.</p><p><blockquote>即使错过几个交易日也会造成损失。假设2010年对标普500的投资为1,000美元，到2019年底将增长到2,800多美元。但如果投资者错过了在此期间最好的10个交易日，他或她最终的收益就会减少33%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f6b5b3ae6b57cc31f1af5aebbc17fa2\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"517\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Emotional investing can be hazardous</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.情感投资可能是危险的</b></blockquote></p><p> Kahneman won his Nobel Prize in 2002 for his work in behavioral economics, a field that investigates how individuals make financial decisions. A key finding of behavioral economists is that people often act irrationally when making such choices.</p><p><blockquote>卡尼曼因其在行为经济学方面的工作获得了2002年的诺贝尔奖，该领域研究个人如何做出财务决策。行为经济学家的一个关键发现是，人们在做出这样的选择时往往会做出非理性的行为。</blockquote></p><p> Emotional reactions to market events are perfectly normal. Investors should expect to feel nervous when markets decline, but it’s the actions taken during such periods that can mean the difference between investment success and shortfall.</p><p><blockquote>对市场事件的情绪反应是完全正常的。当市场下跌时，投资者应该会感到紧张，但在此期间采取的行动可能意味着投资成功和失败之间的区别。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce214d221fe60c0d520aa334e3d7be7\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"448\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> One way to encourage rational investment decision-making is to understand the fundamentals of&nbsp;behavioral economics. Recognizing behaviors like anchoring, confirmation bias and availability bias may help investors identify potential mistakes before they make them.</p><p><blockquote>鼓励理性投资决策的一个方法是理解行为经济学的基本原理。识别锚定、确认偏差和可用性偏差等行为可以帮助投资者在犯潜在错误之前识别它们。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Make a plan and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.制定计划并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> Creating and adhering to a thoughtfully constructed investment plan is another way to avoid making short-sighted investment decisions — particularly when markets move lower. The plan should take into account a number of factors, including risk tolerance and short- and long-term goals.</p><p><blockquote>制定并坚持深思熟虑的投资计划是避免做出短视投资决策的另一种方法——尤其是当市场走低时。该计划应考虑许多因素，包括风险承受能力以及短期和长期目标。</blockquote></p><p> One way to avoid futile attempts to time the market is with dollar cost averaging, where a fixed amount of money is invested at regular intervals, regardless of market ups and downs. This approach creates a strategy in which more shares are purchased at lower prices and fewer shares are purchased at higher prices. Over time investors pay less, on average, per share. Regular investing does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Investors should consider their willingness to keep investing when share prices are declining.</p><p><blockquote>避免徒劳地尝试把握市场时机的一种方法是美元成本平均法，即无论市场涨跌如何，定期投资固定金额的资金。这种方法创建了一种策略，其中以较低的价格购买更多股票，以较高的价格购买更少股票。随着时间的推移，投资者平均每股支付的费用会减少。定期投资并不能确保盈利或防止损失。投资者应考虑在股价下跌时继续投资的意愿。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c40068e959546f5e54c0a77a783a038b\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"501\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Retirement plans, to which investors make automatic contributions with every paycheck, are a prime example of dollar cost averaging.</p><p><blockquote>投资者用每份薪水自动向退休计划缴款，这是平均成本法的一个典型例子。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Diversification matters</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、多元化事项</b></blockquote></p><p> A diversified portfolio doesn’t guarantee profits or provide assurances that investments won’t decrease in value, but it does help lower risk. By spreading investments across a variety of asset classes, investors can buffer the effects of volatility on their portfolios. Overall returns won’t reach the highest highs of any single investment — but they won’t hit the lowest lows either.</p><p><blockquote>多元化的投资组合并不能保证利润或保证投资不会贬值，但它确实有助于降低风险。通过将投资分散到各种资产类别，投资者可以缓冲波动对其投资组合的影响。总体回报不会达到任何单一投资的最高点，但也不会达到最低点。</blockquote></p><p> For investors who want to avoid some of the stress of downturns, diversification can help lower volatility.</p><p><blockquote>对于想要避免经济低迷压力的投资者来说，多元化有助于降低波动性。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6b891f36b43c3ca3b7f9285cf8d0ca4\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"645\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>6. Fixed income can help bring balance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.固定收益有助于带来平衡</b></blockquote></p><p> Stocks are important building blocks of a diversified portfolio, but bonds can provide an essential counterbalance. That’s because bonds typically have low correlation to the stock market, meaning that they have tended to zig when the stock market zagged.</p><p><blockquote>股票是多元化投资组合的重要组成部分，但债券可以提供重要的平衡。这是因为债券通常与股市的相关性较低，这意味着当股市波动时，债券往往会波动。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/890a63f81150f3bfa535786be314ddea\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"537\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> What’s more, bonds with a low equity correlation can potentially help soften the impact of stock market losses on your overall portfolio. Funds providing this diversification can help create durable portfolios, and investors should seek bond funds with strong track records of positive returns through a variety of markets.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，股票相关性较低的债券可能有助于减轻股市损失对您整体投资组合的影响。提供这种多元化的基金可以帮助创建持久的投资组合，投资者应该通过各种市场寻找具有良好正回报记录的债券基金。</blockquote></p><p> Though bonds may not be able to match the growth potential of stocks, they have often shown resilience in past equity declines. For example, U.S. core bonds were flat or positive in five of the last six corrections.</p><p><blockquote>尽管债券可能无法与股票的增长潜力相匹配，但它们在过去的股市下跌中往往表现出弹性。例如，美国核心债券在过去六次调整中有五次持平或上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7. The market tends to reward long-term investors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7.市场倾向于回报长期投资者</b></blockquote></p><p> Is it reasonable to expect 30% returns every year? Of course not. And if stocks have moved lower in recent weeks, you shouldn’t expect that to be the start of a long-term trend, either. Behavioral economics tells us recent events carry an outsized influence on our perceptions and decisions.</p><p><blockquote>期望每年30%的回报合理吗？当然不是。如果股市最近几周走低，你也不应该指望这是长期趋势的开始。行为经济学告诉我们，最近的事件对我们的感知和决策有着巨大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> It’s always important to maintain a long-term perspective, but especially when markets are declining. Although stocks rise and fall in the short term, they’ve tended to reward investors over longer periods of time. Even including downturns, the S&amp;P 500’s average annual return over all 10-year periods from 1937 to 2019 was 10.47%.</p><p><blockquote>保持长期观点总是很重要，尤其是在市场下跌的时候。尽管股票在短期内上涨和下跌，但它们往往会在较长时间内回报投资者。即使包括低迷时期，标普500在1937年至2019年的所有10年期间的平均年回报率为10.47%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a43c92755d55227a882d674690c39c3\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"532\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It’s natural for emotions to bubble up during periods of volatility. Those investors who can tune out the news and focus on their long-term goals are better positioned to plot out a wise investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在波动时期，情绪高涨是很自然的。那些能够忽略新闻并专注于长期目标的投资者能够更好地制定明智的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1615210994562","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to handle market declines<blockquote>如何应对市场下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to handle market declines<blockquote>如何应对市场下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Capital Group</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-08 21:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.</p><p><blockquote>如果你不害怕失去，你就不是人类。</blockquote></p><p> Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demonstrated this with his loss aversion theory, showing that people feel the pain of losing money more than they enjoy gains. The natural instinct is to flee the market when it starts to plummet, just as greed prompts people to jump back in when stocks are skyrocketing. Both can have negative impacts.</p><p><blockquote>诺贝尔奖获得者心理学家丹尼尔·卡尼曼用他的损失厌恶理论证明了这一点，表明人们更多地感受到损失的痛苦，而不是享受收益。当市场开始暴跌时，人们的本能是逃离市场，就像当股票暴涨时，贪婪会促使人们重新投入市场一样。两者都会产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> But smart investing can overcome the power of emotion by focusing on relevant research, solid data and proven strategies. Here are seven principles that can help fight the urge to make emotional decisions in times of market turmoil.</p><p><blockquote>但明智的投资可以通过专注于相关研究、可靠的数据和经过验证的策略来克服情绪的力量。这里有七个原则可以帮助你在市场动荡时期抑制情绪化决策的冲动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Market declines are part of investing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.市场下跌是投资的一部分</b></blockquote></p><p> Stocks have risen steadily for most of the last decade, but history tells us that stock market declines are an inevitable part of investing. The good news is that corrections (defined as a 10% or more decline), bear markets (an extended 20% or more decline) and other challenging patches haven’t lasted forever.</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年的大部分时间里，股市一直在稳步上涨，但历史告诉我们，股市下跌是投资不可避免的一部分。好消息是，调整（定义为下跌10%或以上）、熊市（下跌20%或以上）和其他具有挑战性的时期并没有永远持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de01aaa90e8493bebe0ce8650722d2a9\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"359\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 Composite Index has typically dipped at least 10% about once a year, and 20% or more about every six years, according to data from 1950 to 2019. While past results are not predictive of future results, each downturn has been followed by a recovery and a new market high.</p><p><blockquote>根据1950年至2019年的数据，标准普尔500综合指数通常每年至少下跌10%，每六年下跌20%或更多。虽然过去的结果并不能预测未来的结果，但每次低迷之后都会出现复苏和市场新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Time in the market matters, not market timing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.重要的是市场时间，而不是市场时机</b></blockquote></p><p> No one can accurately predict short-term market moves, and investors who sit on the sidelines risk losing out on periods of meaningful price appreciation that follow downturns.</p><p><blockquote>没有人能够准确预测短期市场走势，袖手旁观的投资者可能会错过经济低迷后有意义的价格升值时期。</blockquote></p><p> Every S&amp;P 500 decline of 15% or more, from 1929 through 2019, has been followed by a recovery. The average return in the first year after each of these declines was 54%.</p><p><blockquote>从1929年到2019年，标普500每下降15%或以上，都会出现复苏。每次下跌后第一年的平均回报率为54%。</blockquote></p><p> Even missing out on just a few trading days can take a toll. A hypothetical investment of $1,000 in the S&amp;P 500 made in 2010 would have grown to more than $2,800 by the end of 2019. But if an investor missed just the 10 best trading days during that period, he or she would have ended up with 33% less.</p><p><blockquote>即使错过几个交易日也会造成损失。假设2010年对标普500的投资为1,000美元，到2019年底将增长到2,800多美元。但如果投资者错过了在此期间最好的10个交易日，他或她最终的收益就会减少33%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f6b5b3ae6b57cc31f1af5aebbc17fa2\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"517\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Emotional investing can be hazardous</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.情感投资可能是危险的</b></blockquote></p><p> Kahneman won his Nobel Prize in 2002 for his work in behavioral economics, a field that investigates how individuals make financial decisions. A key finding of behavioral economists is that people often act irrationally when making such choices.</p><p><blockquote>卡尼曼因其在行为经济学方面的工作获得了2002年的诺贝尔奖，该领域研究个人如何做出财务决策。行为经济学家的一个关键发现是，人们在做出这样的选择时往往会做出非理性的行为。</blockquote></p><p> Emotional reactions to market events are perfectly normal. Investors should expect to feel nervous when markets decline, but it’s the actions taken during such periods that can mean the difference between investment success and shortfall.</p><p><blockquote>对市场事件的情绪反应是完全正常的。当市场下跌时，投资者应该会感到紧张，但在此期间采取的行动可能意味着投资成功和失败之间的区别。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce214d221fe60c0d520aa334e3d7be7\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"448\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> One way to encourage rational investment decision-making is to understand the fundamentals of&nbsp;behavioral economics. Recognizing behaviors like anchoring, confirmation bias and availability bias may help investors identify potential mistakes before they make them.</p><p><blockquote>鼓励理性投资决策的一个方法是理解行为经济学的基本原理。识别锚定、确认偏差和可用性偏差等行为可以帮助投资者在犯潜在错误之前识别它们。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Make a plan and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.制定计划并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> Creating and adhering to a thoughtfully constructed investment plan is another way to avoid making short-sighted investment decisions — particularly when markets move lower. The plan should take into account a number of factors, including risk tolerance and short- and long-term goals.</p><p><blockquote>制定并坚持深思熟虑的投资计划是避免做出短视投资决策的另一种方法——尤其是当市场走低时。该计划应考虑许多因素，包括风险承受能力以及短期和长期目标。</blockquote></p><p> One way to avoid futile attempts to time the market is with dollar cost averaging, where a fixed amount of money is invested at regular intervals, regardless of market ups and downs. This approach creates a strategy in which more shares are purchased at lower prices and fewer shares are purchased at higher prices. Over time investors pay less, on average, per share. Regular investing does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Investors should consider their willingness to keep investing when share prices are declining.</p><p><blockquote>避免徒劳地尝试把握市场时机的一种方法是美元成本平均法，即无论市场涨跌如何，定期投资固定金额的资金。这种方法创建了一种策略，其中以较低的价格购买更多股票，以较高的价格购买更少股票。随着时间的推移，投资者平均每股支付的费用会减少。定期投资并不能确保盈利或防止损失。投资者应考虑在股价下跌时继续投资的意愿。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c40068e959546f5e54c0a77a783a038b\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"501\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Retirement plans, to which investors make automatic contributions with every paycheck, are a prime example of dollar cost averaging.</p><p><blockquote>投资者用每份薪水自动向退休计划缴款，这是平均成本法的一个典型例子。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Diversification matters</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、多元化事项</b></blockquote></p><p> A diversified portfolio doesn’t guarantee profits or provide assurances that investments won’t decrease in value, but it does help lower risk. By spreading investments across a variety of asset classes, investors can buffer the effects of volatility on their portfolios. Overall returns won’t reach the highest highs of any single investment — but they won’t hit the lowest lows either.</p><p><blockquote>多元化的投资组合并不能保证利润或保证投资不会贬值，但它确实有助于降低风险。通过将投资分散到各种资产类别，投资者可以缓冲波动对其投资组合的影响。总体回报不会达到任何单一投资的最高点，但也不会达到最低点。</blockquote></p><p> For investors who want to avoid some of the stress of downturns, diversification can help lower volatility.</p><p><blockquote>对于想要避免经济低迷压力的投资者来说，多元化有助于降低波动性。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6b891f36b43c3ca3b7f9285cf8d0ca4\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"645\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>6. Fixed income can help bring balance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.固定收益有助于带来平衡</b></blockquote></p><p> Stocks are important building blocks of a diversified portfolio, but bonds can provide an essential counterbalance. That’s because bonds typically have low correlation to the stock market, meaning that they have tended to zig when the stock market zagged.</p><p><blockquote>股票是多元化投资组合的重要组成部分，但债券可以提供重要的平衡。这是因为债券通常与股市的相关性较低，这意味着当股市波动时，债券往往会波动。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/890a63f81150f3bfa535786be314ddea\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"537\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> What’s more, bonds with a low equity correlation can potentially help soften the impact of stock market losses on your overall portfolio. Funds providing this diversification can help create durable portfolios, and investors should seek bond funds with strong track records of positive returns through a variety of markets.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，股票相关性较低的债券可能有助于减轻股市损失对您整体投资组合的影响。提供这种多元化的基金可以帮助创建持久的投资组合，投资者应该通过各种市场寻找具有良好正回报记录的债券基金。</blockquote></p><p> Though bonds may not be able to match the growth potential of stocks, they have often shown resilience in past equity declines. For example, U.S. core bonds were flat or positive in five of the last six corrections.</p><p><blockquote>尽管债券可能无法与股票的增长潜力相匹配，但它们在过去的股市下跌中往往表现出弹性。例如，美国核心债券在过去六次调整中有五次持平或上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7. The market tends to reward long-term investors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7.市场倾向于回报长期投资者</b></blockquote></p><p> Is it reasonable to expect 30% returns every year? Of course not. And if stocks have moved lower in recent weeks, you shouldn’t expect that to be the start of a long-term trend, either. Behavioral economics tells us recent events carry an outsized influence on our perceptions and decisions.</p><p><blockquote>期望每年30%的回报合理吗？当然不是。如果股市最近几周走低，你也不应该指望这是长期趋势的开始。行为经济学告诉我们，最近的事件对我们的感知和决策有着巨大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> It’s always important to maintain a long-term perspective, but especially when markets are declining. Although stocks rise and fall in the short term, they’ve tended to reward investors over longer periods of time. Even including downturns, the S&amp;P 500’s average annual return over all 10-year periods from 1937 to 2019 was 10.47%.</p><p><blockquote>保持长期观点总是很重要，尤其是在市场下跌的时候。尽管股票在短期内上涨和下跌，但它们往往会在较长时间内回报投资者。即使包括低迷时期，标普500在1937年至2019年的所有10年期间的平均年回报率为10.47%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a43c92755d55227a882d674690c39c3\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"532\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It’s natural for emotions to bubble up during periods of volatility. Those investors who can tune out the news and focus on their long-term goals are better positioned to plot out a wise investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在波动时期，情绪高涨是很自然的。那些能够忽略新闻并专注于长期目标的投资者能够更好地制定明智的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/handle-market-declines.html\">Capital Group</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/handle-market-declines.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132314005","content_text":"You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.\nNobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demonstrated this with his loss aversion theory, showing that people feel the pain of losing money more than they enjoy gains. The natural instinct is to flee the market when it starts to plummet, just as greed prompts people to jump back in when stocks are skyrocketing. Both can have negative impacts.\nBut smart investing can overcome the power of emotion by focusing on relevant research, solid data and proven strategies. Here are seven principles that can help fight the urge to make emotional decisions in times of market turmoil.\n1. Market declines are part of investing\nStocks have risen steadily for most of the last decade, but history tells us that stock market declines are an inevitable part of investing. The good news is that corrections (defined as a 10% or more decline), bear markets (an extended 20% or more decline) and other challenging patches haven’t lasted forever.\n\nThe Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Index has typically dipped at least 10% about once a year, and 20% or more about every six years, according to data from 1950 to 2019. While past results are not predictive of future results, each downturn has been followed by a recovery and a new market high.\n2. Time in the market matters, not market timing\nNo one can accurately predict short-term market moves, and investors who sit on the sidelines risk losing out on periods of meaningful price appreciation that follow downturns.\nEvery S&P 500 decline of 15% or more, from 1929 through 2019, has been followed by a recovery. The average return in the first year after each of these declines was 54%.\nEven missing out on just a few trading days can take a toll. A hypothetical investment of $1,000 in the S&P 500 made in 2010 would have grown to more than $2,800 by the end of 2019. But if an investor missed just the 10 best trading days during that period, he or she would have ended up with 33% less.\n\n3. Emotional investing can be hazardous\nKahneman won his Nobel Prize in 2002 for his work in behavioral economics, a field that investigates how individuals make financial decisions. A key finding of behavioral economists is that people often act irrationally when making such choices.\nEmotional reactions to market events are perfectly normal. Investors should expect to feel nervous when markets decline, but it’s the actions taken during such periods that can mean the difference between investment success and shortfall.\n\nOne way to encourage rational investment decision-making is to understand the fundamentals of behavioral economics. Recognizing behaviors like anchoring, confirmation bias and availability bias may help investors identify potential mistakes before they make them.\n4. Make a plan and stick to it\nCreating and adhering to a thoughtfully constructed investment plan is another way to avoid making short-sighted investment decisions — particularly when markets move lower. The plan should take into account a number of factors, including risk tolerance and short- and long-term goals.\nOne way to avoid futile attempts to time the market is with dollar cost averaging, where a fixed amount of money is invested at regular intervals, regardless of market ups and downs. This approach creates a strategy in which more shares are purchased at lower prices and fewer shares are purchased at higher prices. Over time investors pay less, on average, per share. Regular investing does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Investors should consider their willingness to keep investing when share prices are declining.\n\nRetirement plans, to which investors make automatic contributions with every paycheck, are a prime example of dollar cost averaging.\n5. Diversification matters\nA diversified portfolio doesn’t guarantee profits or provide assurances that investments won’t decrease in value, but it does help lower risk. By spreading investments across a variety of asset classes, investors can buffer the effects of volatility on their portfolios. Overall returns won’t reach the highest highs of any single investment — but they won’t hit the lowest lows either.\nFor investors who want to avoid some of the stress of downturns, diversification can help lower volatility.\n\n6. Fixed income can help bring balance\nStocks are important building blocks of a diversified portfolio, but bonds can provide an essential counterbalance. That’s because bonds typically have low correlation to the stock market, meaning that they have tended to zig when the stock market zagged.\n\nWhat’s more, bonds with a low equity correlation can potentially help soften the impact of stock market losses on your overall portfolio. Funds providing this diversification can help create durable portfolios, and investors should seek bond funds with strong track records of positive returns through a variety of markets.\nThough bonds may not be able to match the growth potential of stocks, they have often shown resilience in past equity declines. For example, U.S. core bonds were flat or positive in five of the last six corrections.\n7. The market tends to reward long-term investors\nIs it reasonable to expect 30% returns every year? Of course not. And if stocks have moved lower in recent weeks, you shouldn’t expect that to be the start of a long-term trend, either. Behavioral economics tells us recent events carry an outsized influence on our perceptions and decisions.\nIt’s always important to maintain a long-term perspective, but especially when markets are declining. Although stocks rise and fall in the short term, they’ve tended to reward investors over longer periods of time. Even including downturns, the S&P 500’s average annual return over all 10-year periods from 1937 to 2019 was 10.47%.\n\nIt’s natural for emotions to bubble up during periods of volatility. Those investors who can tune out the news and focus on their long-term goals are better positioned to plot out a wise investment strategy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367981048,"gmtCreate":1614903750284,"gmtModify":1703482714653,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;playing the long game","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;playing the long game","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ playing the long game","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5da4c66bd7d3e7bd9df5efab0999fb","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367981048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150031794,"gmtCreate":1624873983218,"gmtModify":1631891482053,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Baba","listText":"Baba","text":"Baba","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150031794","repostId":"1103992527","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357619785,"gmtCreate":1617266546247,"gmtModify":1631891482064,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon","listText":"To the moon","text":"To the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357619785","repostId":"2124022412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324782844,"gmtCreate":1616031156388,"gmtModify":1703496602216,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A17U.SI\">$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$</a>go go go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A17U.SI\">$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$</a>go go go","text":"$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$go go go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e119a3285a2147a1ff56eeaa002c8f23","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324782844","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322135931,"gmtCreate":1615781803923,"gmtModify":1703492860009,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go NIO&nbsp;","listText":"Go NIO&nbsp;","text":"Go NIO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322135931","repostId":"1161179297","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161179297","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615771321,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161179297?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-15 09:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161179297","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.Stocks of electric-vehicle  makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach","content":"<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价低迷之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值也很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车(EV)制造商的股票在2020年加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为这个全球最大的汽车市场继续向交通领域的电气化迈进。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增长到500万辆。据研究机构BloombergNEF称，到2030年，这一数字可能达到1000万，到2040年接近2000万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个更好，尤其是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合适的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，世界上最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，将会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）在上海建立第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们总共交付了131,000辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点。<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易代码：比亚迪）2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2020年交付了近44,000辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的销量比2019年增加了一倍多，达到27,041辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年初推出以来，小鹏汽车的P7运动型轿车累计交付量已超过20,000辆，超越G3紧凑型SUV成为该公司最受欢迎的汽车。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付20,000辆汽车的最快速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款ET7豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统可以延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员靠近时自动释放车门的“电子锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股票分别较2021年1月的高点下跌了27%和38%，现在是看看哪一个可能更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都尚未盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都非常高，但销售额预计将快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它的成本低于小鹏汽车。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借ET7进军豪华轿车领域可能有助于将该公司推向一个新的水平。2020年毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路在望。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望有足够的资本来资助计划的增长工作。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上的现金和现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资为65亿美元，小鹏汽车约为54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港联交所上市来筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于只想选择一家公司来参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，有可能出现很大的波动。但对于那些能够承受这一点并进行适当投资的人来说，最近股价的下跌使蔚来目前比小鹏汽车更值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-15 09:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价低迷之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值也很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车(EV)制造商的股票在2020年加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为这个全球最大的汽车市场继续向交通领域的电气化迈进。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增长到500万辆。据研究机构BloombergNEF称，到2030年，这一数字可能达到1000万，到2040年接近2000万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个更好，尤其是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合适的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，世界上最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，将会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）在上海建立第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们总共交付了131,000辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点。<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易代码：比亚迪）2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2020年交付了近44,000辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的销量比2019年增加了一倍多，达到27,041辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年初推出以来，小鹏汽车的P7运动型轿车累计交付量已超过20,000辆，超越G3紧凑型SUV成为该公司最受欢迎的汽车。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付20,000辆汽车的最快速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款ET7豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统可以延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员靠近时自动释放车门的“电子锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股票分别较2021年1月的高点下跌了27%和38%，现在是看看哪一个可能更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都尚未盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都非常高，但销售额预计将快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它的成本低于小鹏汽车。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借ET7进军豪华轿车领域可能有助于将该公司推向一个新的水平。2020年毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路在望。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望有足够的资本来资助计划的增长工作。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上的现金和现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资为65亿美元，小鹏汽车约为54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港联交所上市来筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于只想选择一家公司来参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，有可能出现很大的波动。但对于那些能够承受这一点并进行适当投资的人来说，最近股价的下跌使蔚来目前比小鹏汽车更值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161179297","content_text":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.\nStocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.\nEV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are NIO (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.\nThe right market\nAs noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that BYD (OTC:BYDDY) sold in 2020.\nNIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.\nXPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.\nNIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.\nPriced for perfection\nThe strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.\nNeither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The price-to-sales ratios (P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.\nNIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS\nThough NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.\nLooking ahead\nNIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.\nBoth companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.\nFor investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323916469,"gmtCreate":1615298566551,"gmtModify":1703486940921,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good to know&nbsp;","listText":"Good to know&nbsp;","text":"Good to know","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323916469","repostId":"1135057078","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135057078","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615296628,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135057078?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-09 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 24 Best-Loved Stocks on Wall Street and Why That Matters<blockquote>华尔街24只最受欢迎的股票及其重要性</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135057078","media":"Barrons","summary":"One way to navigate the choppiness is to look for Wall Street’s best-loved stocks. They are the ones, presumably, that analysts have the most confidence in and will be able to weather whatever 2021 throws at them.A good definition of best-loved is stocks that are nearly universally rated Buy by the analysts covering them.Barron’s looked at the Russell 3000 Index to find a couple dozen that fit the bill. To be included on our list, the stocks had to meet three benchmarks. For starters, at least 1","content":"<p>Stocks are looking a little more sketchy lately—or a least a little more complicated.Inflation, a rotation out of&nbsp;growth&nbsp;into value,memes, vaccines and government&nbsp;stimulus&nbsp;are causing investors to reassess what’s next for the market.</p><p><blockquote>最近股市看起来更加粗略，或者至少更加复杂。通货膨胀、从增长转向价值、模因、疫苗和政府刺激措施正在促使投资者重新评估市场的下一步走势。</blockquote></p><p> One way&nbsp;to navigate the choppiness is to look for Wall Street’s best-loved stocks. They are the ones, presumably, that analysts have the most confidence in and will be able to weather whatever 2021 throws at them.</p><p><blockquote>应对波动的一种方法是寻找华尔街最受欢迎的股票。据推测，他们是分析师最有信心的人，他们将能够经受住2021年的任何考验。</blockquote></p><p> A good definition of best-loved is stocks that are nearly universally rated Buy by the analysts covering them.<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;looked at the&nbsp;Russell 3000 Index&nbsp;to find a couple dozen that fit the bill. To be included on our list, the stocks had to meet three benchmarks. For starters, at least 10 analysts have to cover the stock. There isn’t much use in declaring a stock well-loved if only one analyst rates it Buy. The companies also have to have no Sell ratings and market capitalizations greater than a few billion dollars.</p><p><blockquote>最受欢迎的一个很好的定义是那些几乎被分析师普遍评为买入的股票。<i>巴伦周刊</i>我查看了罗素3000指数，找到了几十个符合要求的指数。要被列入我们的名单，这些股票必须满足三个基准。首先，至少有10名分析师必须关注该股票。如果只有一位分析师给予买入评级，那么宣布一只股票深受喜爱就没有多大用处。这些公司还必须没有卖出评级且市值不得超过数十亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> We also excluded biotech stocks. There are well-loved biotech stocks, but buying one or two can be a dangerous strategy for many investors. Biotech stocks can jump—up or down, depending on the outcome of medical data. It can be better to simply hold a basket of biotech stocks instead of looking only at analyst ratings, which can lead investors to implicitly bet on one or two drug programs.</p><p><blockquote>我们还排除了生物科技股。有一些深受喜爱的生物科技股，但对于许多投资者来说，购买一两只可能是一个危险的策略。生物科技股可能会上涨或下跌，具体取决于医疗数据的结果。简单地持有一篮子生物技术股票可能会更好，而不是只看分析师的评级，这可能会导致投资者暗中押注一两个药物项目。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 3000’s best-loved 24 large companies, in descending order of market capitalization:Microsoft(MSFT),Amazon.com(AMZN), Google parent&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOGL),Conoco&nbsp;Phillips(COP), software providers&nbsp;Twilo(TWLO) and&nbsp;Ring&nbsp;Central(RING),Cheniere Energy(LNG), property owner,VICI Properties(VICI), auto lender&nbsp;Ally Financial(ALLY),GoDaddy(GDDY), sales tax manager&nbsp;Avalara(AVLR), drug development services provider&nbsp;PPD(PPD), material distributor&nbsp;Builders FirstSource(BLDR), footwear maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), lenderOneMain(ONF), optical products maker&nbsp;Lumentum(LITE), energy firm&nbsp;Chart Industries(GTLS), government and defense contractor&nbsp;Science Applications International(SAIC), software provider&nbsp;Medallia(MDLA),New Residential Investment(NRZ), software providerRapid7(RPD),Agree Realty(ADC), software providerTenable(TENB) and solar power company&nbsp;Sunnova Energy International(NOVA).</p><p><blockquote>Russell 3000指数中最受欢迎的24家大公司，按市值降序排列：微软(MSFT)、亚马逊(AMZN)、谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOGL)、康菲石油公司(COP)、软件提供商Twilo(TWLO)和Ring Central(RING)、Cheniere Energy(LNG)、房产所有者VICI Properties(VICI)、汽车贷款机构Ally Financial(ALLY)、GoDaddy(GDDY)、销售税经理Avalara(AVLR)、药物开发服务提供商PPD(PPD)、材料分销商Builders FirstSource(BLDR)、鞋类制造商lenderOneMain(ONF)、光学产品制造商Lumentum(LITE)、光学产品制造商Lumentum(LITE)、能源公司Chart Industries(GTLS)、能源公司Chart Industries(GTLS)、政府和国防承包商Science Applications International(SAIC)、软件提供商Rapid7(RPD)、Agree Realty(ADC)、软件提供商Rapid7(RPD)、Agree Realty(ADC)、软件提供商Tenable(TENB)和太阳能公司Sunnova Energy</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favorites of Analysts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师的最爱</b></blockquote></p><p> These stocks have among the highest buy-rating ratios</p><p><blockquote>这些股票的买入评级比率最高</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57a8da85765b4f9013b5ad629fd52b5d\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"801\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It’s quite a list covering many industries. The largest tech giants are in there as well as little-known software providers, shoe companies and drywall distributors. The companies are connected by analysts’ love for their stocks.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个涵盖许多行业的相当多的列表。最大的科技巨头以及鲜为人知的软件提供商、制鞋公司和干墙分销商都在那里。这些公司因分析师对其股票的热爱而联系在一起。</blockquote></p><p> There are 490 ratings on the two dozen; 469 of the ratings are Buy—about 96%. Cheniere, Ally, GoDaddy, Builders FirstSource, OneMain, Science Applications, New Residential and Sunnova are perfect. Every analyst covering those stocks rates shares Buy. The lowest Buy-rating ratio is Microsoft, with 93%.</p><p><blockquote>两打有490个收视率；469个评级为买入——约96%。Cheniere、Ally、GoDaddy、Builders FirstSource、OneMain、Science Applications、New Residential和Sunnova都是完美的。研究这些股票的每位分析师都将股票评级为买入。买入评级最低的是微软，为93%。</blockquote></p><p> Still, that’s pretty good. The&nbsp;average&nbsp;Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;is 60%.</p><p><blockquote>不过，这已经很好了。道琼斯工业平均指数股票的平均买入评级为60%。</blockquote></p><p> The price-to-earnings ratio for the group falls around 25 times estimated earnings for the coming 12 months. That’s a little higher than the comparable PE ratio of the&nbsp;S &amp; P 500.But that hasn’t hindered the 24 stocks. Shares are up about 55% on average over the past year. What’s more, only three of the 24 are down over that period.</p><p><blockquote>该集团的市盈率降至未来12个月预期收益的25倍左右。这略高于标准普尔500指数的可比市盈率。但这并没有阻碍这24只股票。过去一年股价平均上涨约55%。更重要的是，在此期间，24家公司中只有3家下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The average expected gain, based on&nbsp;analyst target prices, from current levels is about 27%. Typically, analyst target prices represent where analysts expect a stock to trade over the coming 12 months. The Sunnova average analyst target price is about $58 a share, almost 60% higher than recent levels. The Conoco target, on the other hand, is right where the stock is trading, but oil prices are moving up, which can help any oil producer stock.</p><p><blockquote>根据分析师目标价，当前水平的平均预期涨幅约为27%。通常，分析师目标价格代表分析师对股票未来12个月交易价格的预期。Sunnova分析师平均目标价约为每股58美元，比近期水平高出近60%。另一方面，康菲石油公司的目标就在该股的交易地点，但油价正在上涨，这可以帮助任何石油生产商的股票。</blockquote></p><p> There is no guarantee that analysts are right. But there are no guarantees in the stock market. What the high Buy-rating ratio does represent, however, is dozens of different analysts from many brokers have all arrived at the same conclusion. These are solid bets.</p><p><blockquote>不能保证分析师是对的。但是股票市场没有任何保证。然而，高买入评级确实代表了来自许多经纪商的数十位不同分析师都得出了相同的结论。这些都是可靠的赌注。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 24 Best-Loved Stocks on Wall Street and Why That Matters<blockquote>华尔街24只最受欢迎的股票及其重要性</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 24 Best-Loved Stocks on Wall Street and Why That Matters<blockquote>华尔街24只最受欢迎的股票及其重要性</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-09 21:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks are looking a little more sketchy lately—or a least a little more complicated.Inflation, a rotation out of&nbsp;growth&nbsp;into value,memes, vaccines and government&nbsp;stimulus&nbsp;are causing investors to reassess what’s next for the market.</p><p><blockquote>最近股市看起来更加粗略，或者至少更加复杂。通货膨胀、从增长转向价值、模因、疫苗和政府刺激措施正在促使投资者重新评估市场的下一步走势。</blockquote></p><p> One way&nbsp;to navigate the choppiness is to look for Wall Street’s best-loved stocks. They are the ones, presumably, that analysts have the most confidence in and will be able to weather whatever 2021 throws at them.</p><p><blockquote>应对波动的一种方法是寻找华尔街最受欢迎的股票。据推测，他们是分析师最有信心的人，他们将能够经受住2021年的任何考验。</blockquote></p><p> A good definition of best-loved is stocks that are nearly universally rated Buy by the analysts covering them.<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;looked at the&nbsp;Russell 3000 Index&nbsp;to find a couple dozen that fit the bill. To be included on our list, the stocks had to meet three benchmarks. For starters, at least 10 analysts have to cover the stock. There isn’t much use in declaring a stock well-loved if only one analyst rates it Buy. The companies also have to have no Sell ratings and market capitalizations greater than a few billion dollars.</p><p><blockquote>最受欢迎的一个很好的定义是那些几乎被分析师普遍评为买入的股票。<i>巴伦周刊</i>我查看了罗素3000指数，找到了几十个符合要求的指数。要被列入我们的名单，这些股票必须满足三个基准。首先，至少有10名分析师必须关注该股票。如果只有一位分析师给予买入评级，那么宣布一只股票深受喜爱就没有多大用处。这些公司还必须没有卖出评级且市值不得超过数十亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> We also excluded biotech stocks. There are well-loved biotech stocks, but buying one or two can be a dangerous strategy for many investors. Biotech stocks can jump—up or down, depending on the outcome of medical data. It can be better to simply hold a basket of biotech stocks instead of looking only at analyst ratings, which can lead investors to implicitly bet on one or two drug programs.</p><p><blockquote>我们还排除了生物科技股。有一些深受喜爱的生物科技股，但对于许多投资者来说，购买一两只可能是一个危险的策略。生物科技股可能会上涨或下跌，具体取决于医疗数据的结果。简单地持有一篮子生物技术股票可能会更好，而不是只看分析师的评级，这可能会导致投资者暗中押注一两个药物项目。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 3000’s best-loved 24 large companies, in descending order of market capitalization:Microsoft(MSFT),Amazon.com(AMZN), Google parent&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOGL),Conoco&nbsp;Phillips(COP), software providers&nbsp;Twilo(TWLO) and&nbsp;Ring&nbsp;Central(RING),Cheniere Energy(LNG), property owner,VICI Properties(VICI), auto lender&nbsp;Ally Financial(ALLY),GoDaddy(GDDY), sales tax manager&nbsp;Avalara(AVLR), drug development services provider&nbsp;PPD(PPD), material distributor&nbsp;Builders FirstSource(BLDR), footwear maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), lenderOneMain(ONF), optical products maker&nbsp;Lumentum(LITE), energy firm&nbsp;Chart Industries(GTLS), government and defense contractor&nbsp;Science Applications International(SAIC), software provider&nbsp;Medallia(MDLA),New Residential Investment(NRZ), software providerRapid7(RPD),Agree Realty(ADC), software providerTenable(TENB) and solar power company&nbsp;Sunnova Energy International(NOVA).</p><p><blockquote>Russell 3000指数中最受欢迎的24家大公司，按市值降序排列：微软(MSFT)、亚马逊(AMZN)、谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOGL)、康菲石油公司(COP)、软件提供商Twilo(TWLO)和Ring Central(RING)、Cheniere Energy(LNG)、房产所有者VICI Properties(VICI)、汽车贷款机构Ally Financial(ALLY)、GoDaddy(GDDY)、销售税经理Avalara(AVLR)、药物开发服务提供商PPD(PPD)、材料分销商Builders FirstSource(BLDR)、鞋类制造商lenderOneMain(ONF)、光学产品制造商Lumentum(LITE)、光学产品制造商Lumentum(LITE)、能源公司Chart Industries(GTLS)、能源公司Chart Industries(GTLS)、政府和国防承包商Science Applications International(SAIC)、软件提供商Rapid7(RPD)、Agree Realty(ADC)、软件提供商Rapid7(RPD)、Agree Realty(ADC)、软件提供商Tenable(TENB)和太阳能公司Sunnova Energy</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favorites of Analysts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师的最爱</b></blockquote></p><p> These stocks have among the highest buy-rating ratios</p><p><blockquote>这些股票的买入评级比率最高</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57a8da85765b4f9013b5ad629fd52b5d\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"801\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It’s quite a list covering many industries. The largest tech giants are in there as well as little-known software providers, shoe companies and drywall distributors. The companies are connected by analysts’ love for their stocks.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个涵盖许多行业的相当多的列表。最大的科技巨头以及鲜为人知的软件提供商、制鞋公司和干墙分销商都在那里。这些公司因分析师对其股票的热爱而联系在一起。</blockquote></p><p> There are 490 ratings on the two dozen; 469 of the ratings are Buy—about 96%. Cheniere, Ally, GoDaddy, Builders FirstSource, OneMain, Science Applications, New Residential and Sunnova are perfect. Every analyst covering those stocks rates shares Buy. The lowest Buy-rating ratio is Microsoft, with 93%.</p><p><blockquote>两打有490个收视率；469个评级为买入——约96%。Cheniere、Ally、GoDaddy、Builders FirstSource、OneMain、Science Applications、New Residential和Sunnova都是完美的。研究这些股票的每位分析师都将股票评级为买入。买入评级最低的是微软，为93%。</blockquote></p><p> Still, that’s pretty good. The&nbsp;average&nbsp;Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;is 60%.</p><p><blockquote>不过，这已经很好了。道琼斯工业平均指数股票的平均买入评级为60%。</blockquote></p><p> The price-to-earnings ratio for the group falls around 25 times estimated earnings for the coming 12 months. That’s a little higher than the comparable PE ratio of the&nbsp;S &amp; P 500.But that hasn’t hindered the 24 stocks. Shares are up about 55% on average over the past year. What’s more, only three of the 24 are down over that period.</p><p><blockquote>该集团的市盈率降至未来12个月预期收益的25倍左右。这略高于标准普尔500指数的可比市盈率。但这并没有阻碍这24只股票。过去一年股价平均上涨约55%。更重要的是，在此期间，24家公司中只有3家下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The average expected gain, based on&nbsp;analyst target prices, from current levels is about 27%. Typically, analyst target prices represent where analysts expect a stock to trade over the coming 12 months. The Sunnova average analyst target price is about $58 a share, almost 60% higher than recent levels. The Conoco target, on the other hand, is right where the stock is trading, but oil prices are moving up, which can help any oil producer stock.</p><p><blockquote>根据分析师目标价，当前水平的平均预期涨幅约为27%。通常，分析师目标价格代表分析师对股票未来12个月交易价格的预期。Sunnova分析师平均目标价约为每股58美元，比近期水平高出近60%。另一方面，康菲石油公司的目标就在该股的交易地点，但油价正在上涨，这可以帮助任何石油生产商的股票。</blockquote></p><p> There is no guarantee that analysts are right. But there are no guarantees in the stock market. What the high Buy-rating ratio does represent, however, is dozens of different analysts from many brokers have all arrived at the same conclusion. These are solid bets.</p><p><blockquote>不能保证分析师是对的。但是股票市场没有任何保证。然而，高买入评级确实代表了来自许多经纪商的数十位不同分析师都得出了相同的结论。这些都是可靠的赌注。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-wall-streets-24-best-loved-stocks-can-help-tell-whats-ahead-51615250420?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","DECK":"Deckers Outdoor Corporation","VICI":"Vici Properties","BLDR":"Builders FirstSource","COP":"康菲石油","RING":"iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF","LNG":"Cheniere Energy Inc","TENB":"Tenable Holdings Inc.","ADC":"艾格里房产","PPD":"PPD, Inc.","TWLO":"Twilio Inc","LITE":"Lumentum Holdings Inc.","GDDY":"Godaddy Inc.","AVLR":"Avalara Inc","ALLY":"Ally Financial Inc.","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AMZN":"亚马逊","RPD":"Rapid7, Inc.","MDLA":"Medallia, Inc.","SAIC":"Science Applications Internation","GTLS":"查特工业"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-wall-streets-24-best-loved-stocks-can-help-tell-whats-ahead-51615250420?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135057078","content_text":"Stocks are looking a little more sketchy lately—or a least a little more complicated.Inflation, a rotation out of growth into value,memes, vaccines and government stimulus are causing investors to reassess what’s next for the market.\nOne way to navigate the choppiness is to look for Wall Street’s best-loved stocks. They are the ones, presumably, that analysts have the most confidence in and will be able to weather whatever 2021 throws at them.\nA good definition of best-loved is stocks that are nearly universally rated Buy by the analysts covering them.Barron’s looked at the Russell 3000 Index to find a couple dozen that fit the bill. To be included on our list, the stocks had to meet three benchmarks. For starters, at least 10 analysts have to cover the stock. There isn’t much use in declaring a stock well-loved if only one analyst rates it Buy. The companies also have to have no Sell ratings and market capitalizations greater than a few billion dollars.\nWe also excluded biotech stocks. There are well-loved biotech stocks, but buying one or two can be a dangerous strategy for many investors. Biotech stocks can jump—up or down, depending on the outcome of medical data. It can be better to simply hold a basket of biotech stocks instead of looking only at analyst ratings, which can lead investors to implicitly bet on one or two drug programs.\nThe Russell 3000’s best-loved 24 large companies, in descending order of market capitalization:Microsoft(MSFT),Amazon.com(AMZN), Google parent Alphabet(GOOGL),Conoco Phillips(COP), software providers Twilo(TWLO) and Ring Central(RING),Cheniere Energy(LNG), property owner,VICI Properties(VICI), auto lender Ally Financial(ALLY),GoDaddy(GDDY), sales tax manager Avalara(AVLR), drug development services provider PPD(PPD), material distributor Builders FirstSource(BLDR), footwear maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), lenderOneMain(ONF), optical products maker Lumentum(LITE), energy firm Chart Industries(GTLS), government and defense contractor Science Applications International(SAIC), software provider Medallia(MDLA),New Residential Investment(NRZ), software providerRapid7(RPD),Agree Realty(ADC), software providerTenable(TENB) and solar power company Sunnova Energy International(NOVA).\nFavorites of Analysts\nThese stocks have among the highest buy-rating ratios\n\nIt’s quite a list covering many industries. The largest tech giants are in there as well as little-known software providers, shoe companies and drywall distributors. The companies are connected by analysts’ love for their stocks.\nThere are 490 ratings on the two dozen; 469 of the ratings are Buy—about 96%. Cheniere, Ally, GoDaddy, Builders FirstSource, OneMain, Science Applications, New Residential and Sunnova are perfect. Every analyst covering those stocks rates shares Buy. The lowest Buy-rating ratio is Microsoft, with 93%.\nStill, that’s pretty good. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 60%.\nThe price-to-earnings ratio for the group falls around 25 times estimated earnings for the coming 12 months. That’s a little higher than the comparable PE ratio of the S & P 500.But that hasn’t hindered the 24 stocks. Shares are up about 55% on average over the past year. What’s more, only three of the 24 are down over that period.\nThe average expected gain, based on analyst target prices, from current levels is about 27%. Typically, analyst target prices represent where analysts expect a stock to trade over the coming 12 months. The Sunnova average analyst target price is about $58 a share, almost 60% higher than recent levels. The Conoco target, on the other hand, is right where the stock is trading, but oil prices are moving up, which can help any oil producer stock.\nThere is no guarantee that analysts are right. But there are no guarantees in the stock market. What the high Buy-rating ratio does represent, however, is dozens of different analysts from many brokers have all arrived at the same conclusion. These are solid bets.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VICI":0.9,"ONFA":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"RING":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"ADC":0.9,"RPD":0.9,"NOVA":0.9,"GTLS":0.9,"ALLY":0.9,"SAIC":0.9,"LNG":0.9,"COP":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"AVLR":0.9,"TENB":0.9,"BLDR":0.9,"MDLA":0.9,"LITE":0.9,"PPD":0.9,"TWLO":0.9,"NRZ":0.9,"GDDY":0.9,"DECK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320484938,"gmtCreate":1615168494524,"gmtModify":1703485106205,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>Well, let's see if Alibaba can bounce back&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>Well, let's see if Alibaba can bounce back&nbsp;","text":"$Alibaba(09988)$Well, let's see if Alibaba can bounce back","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/974b8c9765cb6a3fa1a6ae7ed03d6428","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320484938","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150033950,"gmtCreate":1624873872270,"gmtModify":1631891482057,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cheers","listText":"Cheers","text":"Cheers","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150033950","repostId":"2146007118","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358684748,"gmtCreate":1616685292284,"gmtModify":1631891482068,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;buy the dip","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;buy the dip","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ buy the dip","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d61b873947813c7ac8494bd2b914f6b9","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358684748","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321013400,"gmtCreate":1615384945100,"gmtModify":1703488217966,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go bull go","listText":"Go bull go","text":"Go bull go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321013400","repostId":"1157854868","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150038685,"gmtCreate":1624874046747,"gmtModify":1631891482049,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up up","listText":"Up up up","text":"Up up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150038685","repostId":"2146600737","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345813668,"gmtCreate":1618298701154,"gmtModify":1631886668088,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A17U.SI\">$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A17U.SI\">$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;","text":"$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$[得意]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/972648908aefa42a274bf5f7b249cd44","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345813668","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355359603,"gmtCreate":1617030222202,"gmtModify":1631891482069,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355359603","repostId":"1193371328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193371328","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617024119,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193371328?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-29 21:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"CFDs - The Dirty Little Secret Behind The Collapse Of Archegos<blockquote>差价合约——Archegos倒闭背后的肮脏小秘密</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193371328","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Stop us if you've heard this one before -Wall Street prime brokers allowed hedge funds to dance whil","content":"<p>Stop us if you've heard this one before -<i>Wall Street prime brokers allowed hedge funds to dance while the music was playing with ever greater leverage in off-exchange and unregulated derivatives... until the first sign of trouble and the whole house of cards comes crashing down in a potentially systemic manner</i>.</p><p><blockquote>如果你以前听过这个，请阻止我们-<i>华尔街大宗经纪商允许对冲基金在场外和不受监管的衍生品杠杆越来越大的同时跳舞...直到出现麻烦的第一个迹象，整个纸牌屋以潜在的系统性方式崩溃</i>.</blockquote></p><p> The bloodbath in various media stocks on Friday has brought light back to one of the dark corners of the equity trading business -<b>so-called contracts-for-differences (CFDs).</b></p><p><blockquote>周五各家媒体股的血洗让股票交易业务的黑暗角落之一重见光明——<b>所谓的差价合约（CFD）。</b></blockquote></p><p> As Bloomberg reports, much of the leverage used by Hwang’s&nbsp;Archegos Capital was provided by banks including&nbsp;Nomura and&nbsp;Credit Suisse -who have most recently admitted huge losses- as<b>CFDs, which are made off exchanges, allow managers like Hwang to amass stakes in publicly traded companies without having to declare their holdings</b>(far in excess of the 5% stakes that require regulatory reporting).</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，Hwang的Archegos Capital使用的大部分杠杆是由野村证券和瑞士信贷等银行提供的——这些银行最近承认遭受了巨大损失——因为<b>在交易所进行的差价合约允许像Hwang这样的经理人积累上市公司的股份，而不必申报他们持有的股份</b>（远远超过需要监管报告的5%股份）。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially,as Bloomberg notes,this means<b>Archegos may never actually have owned most of the underlying securities - if any at all</b>- as the CFD is akin to a privately-arranged (i.e. off exchange and bespoke) futures contract where the differences in the settlement between the open and closing trade prices are cash-settled (there is no delivery of physical goods or securities with CFDs).</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，正如彭博社指出的那样，这意味着<b>Archegos可能从未真正拥有大部分基础证券（如果有的话）</b>-由于差价合约类似于私人安排（即场外及定制）期货合约，其中开盘价与收盘价之间的结算差额以现金结算（差价合约并无交付实物商品或证券）。</blockquote></p><p> What makes the situation worse is that<b>Archegos reportedly took positions in these CFDs with various prime brokers</b>- and because these positions are by their nature not centrally cleared or aggregated, this left prime broker X unaware of their client's exposures with prime broker Y... which in this case was huge.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是<b>据报道，Archegos在多家主要经纪商处持有这些差价合约头寸</b>-由于这些头寸本质上不是集中清算或汇总的，这使得主经纪商X不知道他们的客户在主经纪商Y的风险敞口...在这种情况下，这是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> The leverage Hwang was given made him look like a trading genius as the various positions he took were pumped and pumped (and helped by gamma-squeezers) but now look like a reckless gambling fool as the bets collapsed.</p><p><blockquote>黄禹锡获得的杠杆让他看起来像一个交易天才，因为他持有的各种头寸被抽了又抽（并得到了伽马挤压者的帮助），但现在随着赌注的崩溃，他看起来像一个鲁莽的赌博傻瓜。</blockquote></p><p> CFDs linked to stocks (with a gross market value of around $282 billion at end June 2020) are among bespoke derivatives that investors trade privately between themselves, or over-the-counter, instead of through public exchanges.<b>This is exactly the kind of hidden risk that amplified the losses during the 2008 financial crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>与股票挂钩的差价合约（截至2020年6月底总市值约为2820亿美元）是定制衍生品之一，投资者可以私下交易，或在场外交易，而不是通过公共交易所。<b>这正是2008年金融危机时放大损失的那种隐性风险。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffab65c57ee35df93f6a6087e1136e5b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"321\">AsBloombergnotes,<b>regulators have begun clamping down on CFDs in recent years because they’re concerned the derivatives are too complex and too risky for retail investors,</b>with the European Securities and Markets Authority in 2018&nbsp;restricting&nbsp;the distribution to individuals and capping leverage. In the U.S., CFDs are largely banned for amateur traders... but not for hedge fund managers who are \"sophisticated\"?</p><p><blockquote>正如彭博社指出的那样，<b>监管机构近年来开始打击差价合约，因为他们担心衍生品对散户投资者来说过于复杂且风险太大，</b>欧洲证券和市场管理局在2018年限制了对个人的分配并限制了杠杆。在美国，业余交易者基本上禁止差价合约...但对于“老练”的对冲基金经理来说就不是了？</blockquote></p><p> But,<b>banks still favor them because they can make a large profit without needing to set aside as much capital versus trading actual securities</b>(driven to this opaque market as an unintended consequence of heavy regulation following the 2008 financial crisis).</p><p><blockquote>但是，<b>银行仍然青睐它们，因为与交易实际证券相比，它们无需留出那么多资本即可赚取巨额利润</b>（2008年金融危机后严格监管的意外后果导致了这个不透明的市场）。</blockquote></p><p> In the case of Archegos, there is very little transparency about Hwang’s trades, but market participants suggest his assets had grown to anywhere from $5 billion to $10 billion in recent years with<b>total exposure topping $50 billion</b>. And bear in mind,<b>this is not 'leverage' in the old-fashioned sense</b>(i.e. banks allow you buy X-times the amount of stocks relative to your capital); this is<b>purely synthetic</b>- the firm has no actual underlying asset to fall back on, but is linearly exposed to losses (and gains) on a margined basis.</p><p><blockquote>就Archegos而言，Hwang的交易透明度很低，但市场参与者表示，近年来他的资产已增长至50亿至100亿美元。<b>总风险敞口超过500亿美元</b>.记住，<b>这不是传统意义上的“杠杆”</b>（即银行允许你购买相对于你资本数量X倍的股票）；这是<b>纯合成的</b>-公司没有实际的基础资产可以依靠，但在边际基础上线性面临损失（和收益）。</blockquote></p><p> And as we noted at the beginning,<b>this has the potential to be much more systemic</b>as the losses created by Archegos' margin calls trigger more margin calls and more potential losses for the prime brokers. Think we are exaggerating, then explain why the costs of counterparty risk hedging for Credit Suisse for example, has exploded in the last few days...</p><p><blockquote>正如我们在开头提到的，<b>这有可能更加系统化</b>由于Archegos的保证金评级造成的损失引发了更多的保证金评级以及大宗经纪商的更多潜在损失。认为我们夸大其词，然后解释为什么瑞士信贷的交易对手风险对冲成本在过去几天激增...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28842de72b88aa4010edfcfa798fa5af\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Mohammed El-Erian told CNBC this morning that<i><b>\"It seems to be a one-off ... for now, it looks contained. And that's a good thing.\" But added \"what we don't want is a pile-up.\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote>穆罕默德·埃里安今天早上告诉CNBC<i><b>“这似乎是一次性的……就目前而言，它看起来得到了控制。这是一件好事。”但补充说“我们不想要的是连环相撞。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> We look forward to the Congressional hearings on this.</p><p><blockquote>我们期待国会就此举行听证会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CFDs - The Dirty Little Secret Behind The Collapse Of Archegos<blockquote>差价合约——Archegos倒闭背后的肮脏小秘密</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCFDs - The Dirty Little Secret Behind The Collapse Of Archegos<blockquote>差价合约——Archegos倒闭背后的肮脏小秘密</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-29 21:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stop us if you've heard this one before -<i>Wall Street prime brokers allowed hedge funds to dance while the music was playing with ever greater leverage in off-exchange and unregulated derivatives... until the first sign of trouble and the whole house of cards comes crashing down in a potentially systemic manner</i>.</p><p><blockquote>如果你以前听过这个，请阻止我们-<i>华尔街大宗经纪商允许对冲基金在场外和不受监管的衍生品杠杆越来越大的同时跳舞...直到出现麻烦的第一个迹象，整个纸牌屋以潜在的系统性方式崩溃</i>.</blockquote></p><p> The bloodbath in various media stocks on Friday has brought light back to one of the dark corners of the equity trading business -<b>so-called contracts-for-differences (CFDs).</b></p><p><blockquote>周五各家媒体股的血洗让股票交易业务的黑暗角落之一重见光明——<b>所谓的差价合约（CFD）。</b></blockquote></p><p> As Bloomberg reports, much of the leverage used by Hwang’s&nbsp;Archegos Capital was provided by banks including&nbsp;Nomura and&nbsp;Credit Suisse -who have most recently admitted huge losses- as<b>CFDs, which are made off exchanges, allow managers like Hwang to amass stakes in publicly traded companies without having to declare their holdings</b>(far in excess of the 5% stakes that require regulatory reporting).</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，Hwang的Archegos Capital使用的大部分杠杆是由野村证券和瑞士信贷等银行提供的——这些银行最近承认遭受了巨大损失——因为<b>在交易所进行的差价合约允许像Hwang这样的经理人积累上市公司的股份，而不必申报他们持有的股份</b>（远远超过需要监管报告的5%股份）。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially,as Bloomberg notes,this means<b>Archegos may never actually have owned most of the underlying securities - if any at all</b>- as the CFD is akin to a privately-arranged (i.e. off exchange and bespoke) futures contract where the differences in the settlement between the open and closing trade prices are cash-settled (there is no delivery of physical goods or securities with CFDs).</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，正如彭博社指出的那样，这意味着<b>Archegos可能从未真正拥有大部分基础证券（如果有的话）</b>-由于差价合约类似于私人安排（即场外及定制）期货合约，其中开盘价与收盘价之间的结算差额以现金结算（差价合约并无交付实物商品或证券）。</blockquote></p><p> What makes the situation worse is that<b>Archegos reportedly took positions in these CFDs with various prime brokers</b>- and because these positions are by their nature not centrally cleared or aggregated, this left prime broker X unaware of their client's exposures with prime broker Y... which in this case was huge.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是<b>据报道，Archegos在多家主要经纪商处持有这些差价合约头寸</b>-由于这些头寸本质上不是集中清算或汇总的，这使得主经纪商X不知道他们的客户在主经纪商Y的风险敞口...在这种情况下，这是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> The leverage Hwang was given made him look like a trading genius as the various positions he took were pumped and pumped (and helped by gamma-squeezers) but now look like a reckless gambling fool as the bets collapsed.</p><p><blockquote>黄禹锡获得的杠杆让他看起来像一个交易天才，因为他持有的各种头寸被抽了又抽（并得到了伽马挤压者的帮助），但现在随着赌注的崩溃，他看起来像一个鲁莽的赌博傻瓜。</blockquote></p><p> CFDs linked to stocks (with a gross market value of around $282 billion at end June 2020) are among bespoke derivatives that investors trade privately between themselves, or over-the-counter, instead of through public exchanges.<b>This is exactly the kind of hidden risk that amplified the losses during the 2008 financial crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>与股票挂钩的差价合约（截至2020年6月底总市值约为2820亿美元）是定制衍生品之一，投资者可以私下交易，或在场外交易，而不是通过公共交易所。<b>这正是2008年金融危机时放大损失的那种隐性风险。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffab65c57ee35df93f6a6087e1136e5b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"321\">AsBloombergnotes,<b>regulators have begun clamping down on CFDs in recent years because they’re concerned the derivatives are too complex and too risky for retail investors,</b>with the European Securities and Markets Authority in 2018&nbsp;restricting&nbsp;the distribution to individuals and capping leverage. In the U.S., CFDs are largely banned for amateur traders... but not for hedge fund managers who are \"sophisticated\"?</p><p><blockquote>正如彭博社指出的那样，<b>监管机构近年来开始打击差价合约，因为他们担心衍生品对散户投资者来说过于复杂且风险太大，</b>欧洲证券和市场管理局在2018年限制了对个人的分配并限制了杠杆。在美国，业余交易者基本上禁止差价合约...但对于“老练”的对冲基金经理来说就不是了？</blockquote></p><p> But,<b>banks still favor them because they can make a large profit without needing to set aside as much capital versus trading actual securities</b>(driven to this opaque market as an unintended consequence of heavy regulation following the 2008 financial crisis).</p><p><blockquote>但是，<b>银行仍然青睐它们，因为与交易实际证券相比，它们无需留出那么多资本即可赚取巨额利润</b>（2008年金融危机后严格监管的意外后果导致了这个不透明的市场）。</blockquote></p><p> In the case of Archegos, there is very little transparency about Hwang’s trades, but market participants suggest his assets had grown to anywhere from $5 billion to $10 billion in recent years with<b>total exposure topping $50 billion</b>. And bear in mind,<b>this is not 'leverage' in the old-fashioned sense</b>(i.e. banks allow you buy X-times the amount of stocks relative to your capital); this is<b>purely synthetic</b>- the firm has no actual underlying asset to fall back on, but is linearly exposed to losses (and gains) on a margined basis.</p><p><blockquote>就Archegos而言，Hwang的交易透明度很低，但市场参与者表示，近年来他的资产已增长至50亿至100亿美元。<b>总风险敞口超过500亿美元</b>.记住，<b>这不是传统意义上的“杠杆”</b>（即银行允许你购买相对于你资本数量X倍的股票）；这是<b>纯合成的</b>-公司没有实际的基础资产可以依靠，但在边际基础上线性面临损失（和收益）。</blockquote></p><p> And as we noted at the beginning,<b>this has the potential to be much more systemic</b>as the losses created by Archegos' margin calls trigger more margin calls and more potential losses for the prime brokers. Think we are exaggerating, then explain why the costs of counterparty risk hedging for Credit Suisse for example, has exploded in the last few days...</p><p><blockquote>正如我们在开头提到的，<b>这有可能更加系统化</b>由于Archegos的保证金评级造成的损失引发了更多的保证金评级以及大宗经纪商的更多潜在损失。认为我们夸大其词，然后解释为什么瑞士信贷的交易对手风险对冲成本在过去几天激增...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28842de72b88aa4010edfcfa798fa5af\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Mohammed El-Erian told CNBC this morning that<i><b>\"It seems to be a one-off ... for now, it looks contained. And that's a good thing.\" But added \"what we don't want is a pile-up.\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote>穆罕默德·埃里安今天早上告诉CNBC<i><b>“这似乎是一次性的……就目前而言，它看起来得到了控制。这是一件好事。”但补充说“我们不想要的是连环相撞。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p> We look forward to the Congressional hearings on this.</p><p><blockquote>我们期待国会就此举行听证会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cfds-dirty-little-secret-behind-collapse-archegos?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cfds-dirty-little-secret-behind-collapse-archegos?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193371328","content_text":"Stop us if you've heard this one before -Wall Street prime brokers allowed hedge funds to dance while the music was playing with ever greater leverage in off-exchange and unregulated derivatives... until the first sign of trouble and the whole house of cards comes crashing down in a potentially systemic manner.\nThe bloodbath in various media stocks on Friday has brought light back to one of the dark corners of the equity trading business -so-called contracts-for-differences (CFDs).\nAs Bloomberg reports, much of the leverage used by Hwang’s Archegos Capital was provided by banks including Nomura and Credit Suisse -who have most recently admitted huge losses- asCFDs, which are made off exchanges, allow managers like Hwang to amass stakes in publicly traded companies without having to declare their holdings(far in excess of the 5% stakes that require regulatory reporting).\nCrucially,as Bloomberg notes,this meansArchegos may never actually have owned most of the underlying securities - if any at all- as the CFD is akin to a privately-arranged (i.e. off exchange and bespoke) futures contract where the differences in the settlement between the open and closing trade prices are cash-settled (there is no delivery of physical goods or securities with CFDs).\nWhat makes the situation worse is thatArchegos reportedly took positions in these CFDs with various prime brokers- and because these positions are by their nature not centrally cleared or aggregated, this left prime broker X unaware of their client's exposures with prime broker Y... which in this case was huge.\nThe leverage Hwang was given made him look like a trading genius as the various positions he took were pumped and pumped (and helped by gamma-squeezers) but now look like a reckless gambling fool as the bets collapsed.\nCFDs linked to stocks (with a gross market value of around $282 billion at end June 2020) are among bespoke derivatives that investors trade privately between themselves, or over-the-counter, instead of through public exchanges.This is exactly the kind of hidden risk that amplified the losses during the 2008 financial crisis.\nAsBloombergnotes,regulators have begun clamping down on CFDs in recent years because they’re concerned the derivatives are too complex and too risky for retail investors,with the European Securities and Markets Authority in 2018 restricting the distribution to individuals and capping leverage. In the U.S., CFDs are largely banned for amateur traders... but not for hedge fund managers who are \"sophisticated\"?\nBut,banks still favor them because they can make a large profit without needing to set aside as much capital versus trading actual securities(driven to this opaque market as an unintended consequence of heavy regulation following the 2008 financial crisis).\nIn the case of Archegos, there is very little transparency about Hwang’s trades, but market participants suggest his assets had grown to anywhere from $5 billion to $10 billion in recent years withtotal exposure topping $50 billion. And bear in mind,this is not 'leverage' in the old-fashioned sense(i.e. banks allow you buy X-times the amount of stocks relative to your capital); this ispurely synthetic- the firm has no actual underlying asset to fall back on, but is linearly exposed to losses (and gains) on a margined basis.\nAnd as we noted at the beginning,this has the potential to be much more systemicas the losses created by Archegos' margin calls trigger more margin calls and more potential losses for the prime brokers. Think we are exaggerating, then explain why the costs of counterparty risk hedging for Credit Suisse for example, has exploded in the last few days...\nSource: Bloomberg\nMohammed El-Erian told CNBC this morning that\"It seems to be a one-off ... for now, it looks contained. And that's a good thing.\" But added \"what we don't want is a pile-up.\"\nWe look forward to the Congressional hearings on this.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356045370,"gmtCreate":1616746427290,"gmtModify":1631891482064,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to buy","listText":"Time to buy","text":"Time to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356045370","repostId":"1188307475","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358191717,"gmtCreate":1616670406239,"gmtModify":1631891482073,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to buy","listText":"Time to buy","text":"Time to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358191717","repostId":"1123019252","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325656335,"gmtCreate":1615897350727,"gmtModify":1703494645261,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325656335","repostId":"1127134490","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127134490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615889741,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127134490?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-16 18:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point\"<blockquote>“我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127134490","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&P 500 has been pulled lower  and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.Picking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"adding that \"the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotatio","content":"<p>Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&amp;P 500 has been pulled lower (due to Nasdaq underperformance coupled with strength in value stocks) and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.</p><p><blockquote>上周，杰夫·冈拉克(Jeff Gundlach)在他最新的Doubleline网络广播中展示了一张引人注目的图表，其中显示纳斯达克与标普500的比率已被拉低（由于纳斯达克表现不佳加上价值股走强），目前正处于网络泡沫峰值水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4617081a74b98cbab2c1287942cb9e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"357\">Picking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"<b>we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"</b>adding that \"<b>the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotation signals.</b>In our view, both tech and growth equities outperformance run is over and the rotation to value and commodity exposed equities has begun.\"</p><p><blockquote>拉里·麦克唐纳(Larry McDonald)在周末最新的《熊陷阱》报告中看到了这张图表，写道：“<b>我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</b>补充说“<b>全球第一和第二流动性最强、可以说是最重要的股指正在发出重要的轮动信号。</b>我们认为，科技股和成长股的优异表现已经结束，向价值股和大宗商品股的轮动已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> AsBloomberg notes, while recent single-day rallies (4% on Tuesday and 2.4% on Thursday) lifted the Nasdaq 100 to its first gain in four weeks, they’re not calming nerves. After all, big up days are not uncommon during a downtrend.<b>In 2000, when the market started a three-year crash, the index had 27 sessions where it rose at least 4%. That compared with six such days in 1999, when prices doubled.</b></p><p><blockquote>正如彭博社指出的那样，虽然最近的单日上涨（周二上涨4%，周四上涨2.4%）将纳斯达克100指数推升至四周以来的首次上涨，但它们并没有安抚人们的神经。毕竟，在下跌趋势中，大幅上涨的日子并不罕见。<b>2000年，当市场开始为期三年的崩盘时，该指数有27个交易日上涨至少4%。相比之下，1999年有六天这样的日子，当时价格翻了一番。</b></blockquote></p><p> “The early stages of a bear market is typically punctuated by ferocious rallies, and what matters in the end is how far the rallies extend and not how quickly they move within a single session,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC. “<b>Evidence continues to mount that the technology sector has finally relinquished its position as key global leadership.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>Marketfield Asset Management LLC首席执行官Michael Shaoul表示：“熊市的早期阶段通常会出现猛烈的反弹，最终重要的是反弹会持续多远，而不是它们在单个交易日内的移动速度。”<b>越来越多的证据表明，科技行业最终放弃了其全球关键领导地位。”</b></blockquote></p><p> That’s raising alarms for anyone who lived through the dot-com crash. Back then, when the Nasdaq 100 started falling in March 2000, the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 kept marching forward and didn’t peak until 14 months later -- a sign that money was being shifted away from the tech behemoths that soared in the internet bubble.<b>Ultimately, the Nasdaq 100 lost half of its value</b>.</p><p><blockquote>这给任何经历过互联网泡沫破裂的人敲响了警钟。当时，当纳斯达克100指数于2000年3月开始下跌时，等权重标普500不断前进，直到14个月后才见顶——这表明资金正在从互联网泡沫中飙升的科技巨头手中转移。<b>最终，纳斯达克100指数损失了一半的价值</b>.</blockquote></p><p>   <b>“People should not take solace in the fact that almost everything else besides the tech group is acting well,</b>” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.  <b>“If the tech group continues to underperform, it’s going to weigh on the rest of the stock market eventually.”</b>  A rotation out of growth and tech will only accelerate depending on what Powell says on Thursday, especially if he doesn't sound sufficient dovish and spooks markets again, triggering another bond rout, which by extension means a selloff in growth stocks which - as we have noted on many previous occasions -<b>have near record high duration and are thus merely bond proxies to which hedge funds have never been more exposed.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“人们不应该因为除了科技集团之外几乎所有其他公司都表现良好而感到安慰，</b>”Miller Tabak+Co.首席市场策略师Matt Maley说道。<b>“如果科技集团继续表现不佳，最终将给股市的其他部分带来压力。”</b>根据鲍威尔周四的言论，成长股和科技股的轮动只会加速，特别是如果他听起来不够鸽派并再次惊动市场，引发另一场债券暴跌，这反过来意味着成长股的抛售——正如我们在之前的许多场合指出的那样——<b>久期接近历史最高水平，因此只是对冲基金从未接触过的债券代理。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c176f70232a97f988ba92c84c6836d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"201\">However, while all eyes were on the 10-Year during the late February \"reflation panic\" selloff which was sparked by a liquidation cascade in bonds once the 10Y breached 1.50%, the place on the Treasury curve where the next liquidation cascade could begin is now the belly, because asBloomberg writeswhereas back in December the thought was that the Federal Reserve might tamp down long-term Treasury yields, the issue now lies with shorter-dated ones, and specifically<b>5-year rates.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管在2月底的“通货再膨胀恐慌”抛售期间，所有人的目光都集中在10年期债券一旦突破1.50%，债券就会出现清算级联，但国债曲线上下一次清算级联可能开始的地方现在是腹部，因为正如彭博社所写，早在12月份，人们就认为美联储可能会压低长期国债收益率，而现在的问题在于短期国债收益率，特别是<b>5年期利率。</b></blockquote></p><p> Yields on that maturity have become unanchored in recent weeks, surging above the previous \"red line\" of 0.75% amid speculation that the<b>Fed will need to start a cycle of rate hikes perhaps a full year earlier than officials have indicated.</b>That shift has also roiled the outlook for a classic iteration of the reflation wager, a widening gap between 5- and 30-year yields, even as the narrative of a stimulus-fueled recovery has only gained momentum.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，该期限的收益率已变得不稳定，飙升至之前0.75%的“红线”之上，因为人们猜测<b>美联储可能需要比官员们表示的提前一整年开始加息周期。</b>这种转变还扰乱了通货再膨胀赌注经典迭代的前景，即5年期和30年期收益率之间的差距不断扩大，尽管刺激推动的复苏的说法才刚刚获得动力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4be02c3e2224fb5edfb0e0ed77bcac\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\"><b>\"The Fed next week will have to walk a fine line between either pushing back against market expectations or allowing them to stand,\"</b>said Kevin Walter, co-head of global Treasuries trading for Barclays. Without Fed pushback \"there might be more pressure on the belly of the curve,\" in which case the best steepeners would be the spreads between 2-year yields versus 5- and 7-year rates that have room to rise as traders price in tightening.</p><p><blockquote><b>“美联储下周将不得不在违背市场预期或允许市场预期之间徘徊。”</b>巴克莱全球国债交易联席主管凯文·沃尔特表示。如果没有美联储的抵制，“曲线腹部可能会有更多压力”，在这种情况下，最好的陡峭化因素将是2年期国债收益率与5年期和7年期国债收益率之间的利差，随着交易员定价收紧，利差还有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> And while most investment bank research divisions, and certainly the Fed, do not expect any liftoff until at least 2023,<b>the swaps market has been reflecting a roughly 75% chance the Fed lifts rates from near zero by around the end of 2022.</b>Indeed, Walter expects no major policy changes next week and anticipates that officials will continue to project rates on hold through 2023, however even doing nothing may force another round of selling amid the recent bout of soaring inflation, one seen as a push by the market to force Powell into some form of Yield Curve Control.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大多数投资银行研究部门，当然还有美联储，预计至少要到2023年才会出现任何提振，<b>掉期市场反映出美联储在2022年底左右将利率从接近零的水平上调的可能性约为75%。</b>事实上，沃尔特预计下周不会有重大政策变化，并预计官员们将在2023年之前继续维持利率不变，但在最近一轮通胀飙升的情况下，即使什么都不做也可能迫使另一轮抛售，这被视为市场的推动迫使鲍威尔进行某种形式的收益率曲线控制。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/148711c8ea3822a0af209f086802c068\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"263\">On the remote chance that the Fed does signal some 2023 hikes next week,<b>the market will probably bring expectations for rate increases into the first half of 2022 and the 1-year-forward 5-year rate could increase 50 basis points, Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy for Mizuho International Plc,</b>said in an emailed note. It would also lead to renewed rotation out of growth and into value, further depressing the Nasdaq to SPX chart shown above.</p><p><blockquote>美联储下周确实发出2023年加息信号的可能性很小，<b>瑞穗国际(Mizuho International Plc)多资产策略主管Peter Chatwell表示，市场可能会将加息预期带入2022年上半年，1年期远期5年期利率可能会上调50个基点，</b>在一封电子邮件中说。这还将导致从增长到价值的重新轮动，进一步压低上面显示的纳斯达克到SPX的图表。</blockquote></p><p> That said, most don't expect Powell to address the continued selling in either the long-end or more recently, the belly - the Fed chair gave only a minor reference to the bond-market slump that drove 10-year yields above 1.6%. He emphasized the importance of financial conditions, which remain accommodative, although tech stocks did sink on Friday as yields surged.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，大多数人预计鲍威尔不会解决长期或最近的腹部持续抛售问题——这位美联储主席只略微提及了推动10年期国债收益率突破1.6%的债券市场暴跌。他强调了金融状况的重要性，尽管随着收益率飙升，科技股周五确实下跌，但金融状况仍然宽松。</blockquote></p><p> None of this will help ease inflation fears as the market fears the Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve. As we noted last week, 5Y inflation expectations at the highest since 2008 and robust jobs data have only reinforced bets that the Fed will need to tighten more quickly than it’s been forecasting. The speculation has squeezed wagers on a steeper curve from 5 to 30 years, shrinking that spread to a bit above 150 basis points, from a more than 6-year high of 167 in February. The 5-year yield at 0.84% isn’t far below its highest level since last year. But at the same time, the 2-year has remained near historic lows on the view that the Fed will hold rates near zero for the immediate future. That’s kept bets on the widely watched spread to the 10-year rate in play, as well as versus other maturities, such as the 5- and 7-year.</p><p><blockquote>这些都无助于缓解通胀担忧，因为市场担心美联储正在迅速落后于曲线。正如我们上周指出的，5年期通胀预期达到2008年以来的最高水平以及强劲的就业数据只会强化人们对美联储需要比预期更快收紧政策的押注。这种猜测挤压了对5年至30年更陡峭曲线的押注，将利差从2月份的6年多高点167个基点缩小至略高于150个基点。5年期国债收益率为0.84%，远低于去年以来的最高水平。但与此同时，由于美联储将在不久的将来将利率维持在接近零的水平，2年期国债仍接近历史低点。这使得人们对广受关注的10年期利率利差以及与5年期和7年期等其他期限利率利差的押注继续发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> And with the front-end anchored for a long, long time, the question then becomes what is the most lucrative steepener trade. “Some steepeners are better than others,” said Patrick Leary, senior trader and chief market strategist for Incapital. He expects the 2s10s to keep widening, but has taken profits on steepeners and is looking for a better point to re-enter. Other see potential in the 5- to 30-year steepener. TD Securities has recommended entering that bet at 146.5 basis points, targeting 170, based on what it said was a high bar for hikes and the prospect of elevated coupon supply.</p><p><blockquote>随着前端锚定很长很长一段时间，问题就变成了什么是最有利可图的陡峭交易。Incapital高级交易员兼首席市场策略师帕特里克·利里(Patrick Leary)表示：“有些陡峭化者比其他者更好。”他预计2s10s将继续扩大，但已在陡峭的地方获利了结，并正在寻找更好的重新进入点。其他人则看到了5至30年陡峭时期的潜力。道明证券(TD Securities)建议以146.5个基点入场，目标为170个基点，理由是加息的门槛很高以及息票供应增加的前景。</blockquote></p><p> Taking a step back, the reason why traders have been so focused on the 5-year part of the curve, i.e., \"the belly\", is because it’s seen as one place that may bear the brunt of any subsequent selloff should rate-hike speculation mount further, since the bulk of the liftoff regime is expected to take place within the maturity of a 5 Year note issued now.</p><p><blockquote>退一步说，交易员之所以如此关注曲线的5年期部分，即“腹部”，是因为如果加息投机进一步加剧，它被视为可能首当其冲遭受任何后续抛售的地方，因为大部分起飞制度预计将在现在发行的5年期票据到期后发生。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, as Bloomberg notes already certain corners of the market are turning their attention to the potential for multiple rate hikes.<b>In swaptions,</b><b><u>a position has emerged targeting the Fed to hike seven to eight times by March 2025, according to a Barclays analysis</u></b><b>.</b></p><p><blockquote>此外，正如彭博社指出的那样，市场的某些角落已经将注意力转向多次加息的可能性。<b>在掉期期权中，</b><b><u>巴克莱银行的分析显示，美联储的目标是到2025年3月加息七到八次</u></b><b>.</b></blockquote></p><p> There is, of course, the risk that markets have gotten ahead of themselves - the whole point of a recent RIC report from BofA, which does not see anywhere nearly enough sustained inflation to justify a 2022 rate hike, let alone 7 by 2025: “it’s possible the market may have gotten a little ahead of itself in the belly,” causing the 5-year rate to rise too much, said Jamie Anderson, head of U.S. trading for Insight Investment. If the data come in weak or the Fed is on hold for longer than expected, “the belly should rally and the curve re-steepen,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>当然，市场存在超前的风险——这就是美国银行最近发布的RIC报告的全部要点，该报告认为任何地方都没有足够的持续通胀来证明2022年加息是合理的，更不用说到2025年加息7次了：Insight Investment美国交易主管杰米·安德森(Jamie Anderson)表示，“市场可能有点超前了”，导致5年期利率上涨过多。他表示，如果数据疲软或美联储按兵不动的时间长于预期，“腹部应该会反弹，曲线会重新变陡”。</blockquote></p><p> For Incapital’s Leary, the narrowing in the 5s30s gap came on the view that officials may discuss - or even announce - a twist next week. Such an operation, involving the sale of shorter-dated holdings and purchase of longer maturities to control yields, would put more pressure on the belly, he says. That would follow the European Central Bank’s decision to ramp up its bond-buying pace.</p><p><blockquote>对于Incapital的Leary来说，5s30差距的缩小是因为官员们可能会在下周讨论甚至宣布一个转折。他表示，这种操作涉及出售短期资产并购买长期资产以控制收益率，将给腹部带来更大压力。此前，欧洲央行决定加快债券购买步伐。</blockquote></p><p> “All these trades are highly dependent on the Fed being on the sidelines and not changing its policy stance,” Leary said.<b>“The market is definitely playing a game of chicken with the Fed, by testing how high yields can get before tightening financial conditions and forcing the Fed to step in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>Leary表示：“所有这些交易都高度依赖美联储保持观望，不改变政策立场。”<b>“市场肯定是在和美联储玩一场吃鸡的游戏，在收紧金融状况并迫使美联储介入之前，测试收益率能达到多高。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, even as some strategists have brushed aside the yield risk for growth stocks, claiming that tech has shown a fickle relationship with Treasuries over time, Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research,<b>found that since 2014, the Nasdaq 100’s forward earnings yield - the inverse of its price-earnings ratio where the higher it is, the cheaper stocks are - has moved almost in lockstep with forecast corporate bond rates.</b></p><p><blockquote>与此同时，尽管一些策略师无视成长型股票的收益率风险，声称随着时间的推移，科技股与美国国债的关系变化无常，但Ned Davis Research首席全球宏观策略师Joe Kalish表示，<b>研究发现，自2014年以来，纳斯达克100指数的远期收益率（市盈率的倒数，市盈率越高，股票越便宜）几乎与预测的公司债券利率同步变动。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In his model, if 10-year Treasury yields rise to 2% this year, that in turn could drive long-term Baa-rated bond rates to 4.5%, a scenario where<b>the Nasdaq 100 would have to drop as much as 20% to stay attractive, all else equal.</b>If yields climbed but the Nasdaq didn’t move, this would indicate over-valuation, Kalish said, adding his model correctly flashed warnings in 1987 and 2000.</p><p><blockquote>在他的模型中，如果10年期美国国债收益率今年升至2%，这反过来可能会将长期Baa评级债券利率推至4.5%，在这种情况下<b>在其他条件相同的情况下，纳斯达克100指数必须下跌20%才能保持吸引力。</b>卡利什表示，如果收益率攀升但纳斯达克没有变动，这将表明估值过高，并补充说他的模型在1987年和2000年正确地发出了警告。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e1270022eb5742b2cf2a7c328a5d897\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"380\">Also keep in mind that even after the recent drop, the price-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 - at 28 - is nowhere near cheap relative to other stocks, and is a 7% premium over the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>另请记住，即使在最近下跌之后，纳斯达克100指数的市盈率（28）相对于其他股票来说也远不便宜，比标普500溢价7%。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the growth advantage that has sustained tech’s outperformance in all but one year since 2009 is poised to disappear - at least for the next two years - as pandemic-beaten firms like airlines and automakers roar back. Profits from software and internet companies are expected to expand 22% this year and 12% in 2022. Both lag behind the broad S&amp;P 500, where earnings are forecast to increase 24% and 15%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着航空公司和汽车制造商等遭受大流行打击的公司卷土重来，自2009年以来除一年外一直维持科技股优异表现的增长优势即将消失——至少在未来两年是这样。软件和互联网公司的利润预计今年将增长22%，2022年将增长12%。两者都落后于广泛的标普500，后者的盈利预计分别增长24%和15%。</blockquote></p><p> So going back to the top chart, and with Nasdaq 100 knocking on the door of its relative peak, it’d be a mistake not to consider the downside risk, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group首席投资策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示，回到顶部图表，随着纳斯达克100指数即将达到相对峰值，不考虑下行风险将是一个错误。</blockquote></p><p> “New-era investments are at a significant crossroads,” he said.<b>“After a prolonged period of extensive outperformance by the Nasdaq and tech stocks, it is not unreasonable to foresee a phase of underperformance, consolidation or even an outright collapse.”</b></p><p><blockquote>“新时代投资正处于一个重要的十字路口，”他说。<b>“在纳斯达克和科技股长期普遍表现出色之后，预计将出现一个表现不佳、整合甚至彻底崩溃的阶段并非没有道理。”</b></blockquote></p><p> If all this sounds unnecessarily convoluted, we remind you of what Rabobank's Michael Everysaid overnight, in what may be the best summary of the Fed's options:</p><p><blockquote>如果这一切听起来不必要地令人费解，我们提醒您荷兰合作银行的迈克尔·埃弗里(Michael Everyevery)一夜之间所说的话，这可能是对美联储选择的最佳总结：</blockquote></p><p>   \"If Powell does nothing, we could perhaps be on the verge of a 2013-style Taper Tantrum. That would send Godzilla-sized shockwaves through markets everywhere, including Tokyo. (And I now think of 1970/80’s British TV ads where a Mock-zilla would eat famous global landmarks before deciding he preferred a certain candy “even chewier than a Barrow-in-Furness bus depot.”) \"\"Of course, Powell could say something or do something: Operation Twist and Shout; or YCC. First of all, this would then show that there is a disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed, which is hardly ideal. Moreover, such steps would prompt a major market flattening, but of two different kinds (short end up and long end down; or just long end down).  <b>As I keep repeating here, YCC would also open the door for some seriously new epic adventures, like opening the mysterious giant gate behind which King Kong is found on his remote island.\"</b>  In short, brace for a burst of volatility on Thursday when Powell (and tech stock bulls) will be damned if the Fed Chair<i><b>doesn't</b></i>do anything, and damned if he&nbsp;<u><b>does</b></u>...</p><p><blockquote>“如果鲍威尔什么都不做，我们可能会处于2013年式的缩减恐慌的边缘。这将给包括东京在内的世界各地的市场带来哥斯拉大小的冲击波。（我现在想起了1970/80年代的英国电视广告，一个模拟zilla会吃掉著名的全球地标，然后决定他更喜欢某种糖果“甚至比Barrow-in-Furness公交车站更有嚼劲。”）“当然，鲍威尔可以说些什么或做些什么：扭曲和呼喊行动；或者YCC。首先，这将表明财政部和美联储之间存在脱节，这并不理想。此外，这些措施将促使市场出现重大扁平化，但有两种不同的类型（短端上升和长端下降；或者只是长端向下）。<b>正如我在这里不断重复的那样，YCC也会为一些全新的史诗冒险打开大门，比如打开神秘的巨门，金刚在他的偏远岛屿上被发现。”</b>简而言之，为周四的波动做好准备，届时鲍威尔（和科技股多头）将受到诅咒，如果美联储主席<i><b>不是</b></i>做任何事，如果他<u><b>是的</b></u>...</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point\"<blockquote>“我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-16 18:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&amp;P 500 has been pulled lower (due to Nasdaq underperformance coupled with strength in value stocks) and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.</p><p><blockquote>上周，杰夫·冈拉克(Jeff Gundlach)在他最新的Doubleline网络广播中展示了一张引人注目的图表，其中显示纳斯达克与标普500的比率已被拉低（由于纳斯达克表现不佳加上价值股走强），目前正处于网络泡沫峰值水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4617081a74b98cbab2c1287942cb9e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"357\">Picking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"<b>we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"</b>adding that \"<b>the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotation signals.</b>In our view, both tech and growth equities outperformance run is over and the rotation to value and commodity exposed equities has begun.\"</p><p><blockquote>拉里·麦克唐纳(Larry McDonald)在周末最新的《熊陷阱》报告中看到了这张图表，写道：“<b>我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</b>补充说“<b>全球第一和第二流动性最强、可以说是最重要的股指正在发出重要的轮动信号。</b>我们认为，科技股和成长股的优异表现已经结束，向价值股和大宗商品股的轮动已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> AsBloomberg notes, while recent single-day rallies (4% on Tuesday and 2.4% on Thursday) lifted the Nasdaq 100 to its first gain in four weeks, they’re not calming nerves. After all, big up days are not uncommon during a downtrend.<b>In 2000, when the market started a three-year crash, the index had 27 sessions where it rose at least 4%. That compared with six such days in 1999, when prices doubled.</b></p><p><blockquote>正如彭博社指出的那样，虽然最近的单日上涨（周二上涨4%，周四上涨2.4%）将纳斯达克100指数推升至四周以来的首次上涨，但它们并没有安抚人们的神经。毕竟，在下跌趋势中，大幅上涨的日子并不罕见。<b>2000年，当市场开始为期三年的崩盘时，该指数有27个交易日上涨至少4%。相比之下，1999年有六天这样的日子，当时价格翻了一番。</b></blockquote></p><p> “The early stages of a bear market is typically punctuated by ferocious rallies, and what matters in the end is how far the rallies extend and not how quickly they move within a single session,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC. “<b>Evidence continues to mount that the technology sector has finally relinquished its position as key global leadership.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>Marketfield Asset Management LLC首席执行官Michael Shaoul表示：“熊市的早期阶段通常会出现猛烈的反弹，最终重要的是反弹会持续多远，而不是它们在单个交易日内的移动速度。”<b>越来越多的证据表明，科技行业最终放弃了其全球关键领导地位。”</b></blockquote></p><p> That’s raising alarms for anyone who lived through the dot-com crash. Back then, when the Nasdaq 100 started falling in March 2000, the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 kept marching forward and didn’t peak until 14 months later -- a sign that money was being shifted away from the tech behemoths that soared in the internet bubble.<b>Ultimately, the Nasdaq 100 lost half of its value</b>.</p><p><blockquote>这给任何经历过互联网泡沫破裂的人敲响了警钟。当时，当纳斯达克100指数于2000年3月开始下跌时，等权重标普500不断前进，直到14个月后才见顶——这表明资金正在从互联网泡沫中飙升的科技巨头手中转移。<b>最终，纳斯达克100指数损失了一半的价值</b>.</blockquote></p><p>   <b>“People should not take solace in the fact that almost everything else besides the tech group is acting well,</b>” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.  <b>“If the tech group continues to underperform, it’s going to weigh on the rest of the stock market eventually.”</b>  A rotation out of growth and tech will only accelerate depending on what Powell says on Thursday, especially if he doesn't sound sufficient dovish and spooks markets again, triggering another bond rout, which by extension means a selloff in growth stocks which - as we have noted on many previous occasions -<b>have near record high duration and are thus merely bond proxies to which hedge funds have never been more exposed.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“人们不应该因为除了科技集团之外几乎所有其他公司都表现良好而感到安慰，</b>”Miller Tabak+Co.首席市场策略师Matt Maley说道。<b>“如果科技集团继续表现不佳，最终将给股市的其他部分带来压力。”</b>根据鲍威尔周四的言论，成长股和科技股的轮动只会加速，特别是如果他听起来不够鸽派并再次惊动市场，引发另一场债券暴跌，这反过来意味着成长股的抛售——正如我们在之前的许多场合指出的那样——<b>久期接近历史最高水平，因此只是对冲基金从未接触过的债券代理。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c176f70232a97f988ba92c84c6836d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"201\">However, while all eyes were on the 10-Year during the late February \"reflation panic\" selloff which was sparked by a liquidation cascade in bonds once the 10Y breached 1.50%, the place on the Treasury curve where the next liquidation cascade could begin is now the belly, because asBloomberg writeswhereas back in December the thought was that the Federal Reserve might tamp down long-term Treasury yields, the issue now lies with shorter-dated ones, and specifically<b>5-year rates.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管在2月底的“通货再膨胀恐慌”抛售期间，所有人的目光都集中在10年期债券一旦突破1.50%，债券就会出现清算级联，但国债曲线上下一次清算级联可能开始的地方现在是腹部，因为正如彭博社所写，早在12月份，人们就认为美联储可能会压低长期国债收益率，而现在的问题在于短期国债收益率，特别是<b>5年期利率。</b></blockquote></p><p> Yields on that maturity have become unanchored in recent weeks, surging above the previous \"red line\" of 0.75% amid speculation that the<b>Fed will need to start a cycle of rate hikes perhaps a full year earlier than officials have indicated.</b>That shift has also roiled the outlook for a classic iteration of the reflation wager, a widening gap between 5- and 30-year yields, even as the narrative of a stimulus-fueled recovery has only gained momentum.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，该期限的收益率已变得不稳定，飙升至之前0.75%的“红线”之上，因为人们猜测<b>美联储可能需要比官员们表示的提前一整年开始加息周期。</b>这种转变还扰乱了通货再膨胀赌注经典迭代的前景，即5年期和30年期收益率之间的差距不断扩大，尽管刺激推动的复苏的说法才刚刚获得动力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4be02c3e2224fb5edfb0e0ed77bcac\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\"><b>\"The Fed next week will have to walk a fine line between either pushing back against market expectations or allowing them to stand,\"</b>said Kevin Walter, co-head of global Treasuries trading for Barclays. Without Fed pushback \"there might be more pressure on the belly of the curve,\" in which case the best steepeners would be the spreads between 2-year yields versus 5- and 7-year rates that have room to rise as traders price in tightening.</p><p><blockquote><b>“美联储下周将不得不在违背市场预期或允许市场预期之间徘徊。”</b>巴克莱全球国债交易联席主管凯文·沃尔特表示。如果没有美联储的抵制，“曲线腹部可能会有更多压力”，在这种情况下，最好的陡峭化因素将是2年期国债收益率与5年期和7年期国债收益率之间的利差，随着交易员定价收紧，利差还有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> And while most investment bank research divisions, and certainly the Fed, do not expect any liftoff until at least 2023,<b>the swaps market has been reflecting a roughly 75% chance the Fed lifts rates from near zero by around the end of 2022.</b>Indeed, Walter expects no major policy changes next week and anticipates that officials will continue to project rates on hold through 2023, however even doing nothing may force another round of selling amid the recent bout of soaring inflation, one seen as a push by the market to force Powell into some form of Yield Curve Control.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大多数投资银行研究部门，当然还有美联储，预计至少要到2023年才会出现任何提振，<b>掉期市场反映出美联储在2022年底左右将利率从接近零的水平上调的可能性约为75%。</b>事实上，沃尔特预计下周不会有重大政策变化，并预计官员们将在2023年之前继续维持利率不变，但在最近一轮通胀飙升的情况下，即使什么都不做也可能迫使另一轮抛售，这被视为市场的推动迫使鲍威尔进行某种形式的收益率曲线控制。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/148711c8ea3822a0af209f086802c068\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"263\">On the remote chance that the Fed does signal some 2023 hikes next week,<b>the market will probably bring expectations for rate increases into the first half of 2022 and the 1-year-forward 5-year rate could increase 50 basis points, Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy for Mizuho International Plc,</b>said in an emailed note. It would also lead to renewed rotation out of growth and into value, further depressing the Nasdaq to SPX chart shown above.</p><p><blockquote>美联储下周确实发出2023年加息信号的可能性很小，<b>瑞穗国际(Mizuho International Plc)多资产策略主管Peter Chatwell表示，市场可能会将加息预期带入2022年上半年，1年期远期5年期利率可能会上调50个基点，</b>在一封电子邮件中说。这还将导致从增长到价值的重新轮动，进一步压低上面显示的纳斯达克到SPX的图表。</blockquote></p><p> That said, most don't expect Powell to address the continued selling in either the long-end or more recently, the belly - the Fed chair gave only a minor reference to the bond-market slump that drove 10-year yields above 1.6%. He emphasized the importance of financial conditions, which remain accommodative, although tech stocks did sink on Friday as yields surged.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，大多数人预计鲍威尔不会解决长期或最近的腹部持续抛售问题——这位美联储主席只略微提及了推动10年期国债收益率突破1.6%的债券市场暴跌。他强调了金融状况的重要性，尽管随着收益率飙升，科技股周五确实下跌，但金融状况仍然宽松。</blockquote></p><p> None of this will help ease inflation fears as the market fears the Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve. As we noted last week, 5Y inflation expectations at the highest since 2008 and robust jobs data have only reinforced bets that the Fed will need to tighten more quickly than it’s been forecasting. The speculation has squeezed wagers on a steeper curve from 5 to 30 years, shrinking that spread to a bit above 150 basis points, from a more than 6-year high of 167 in February. The 5-year yield at 0.84% isn’t far below its highest level since last year. But at the same time, the 2-year has remained near historic lows on the view that the Fed will hold rates near zero for the immediate future. That’s kept bets on the widely watched spread to the 10-year rate in play, as well as versus other maturities, such as the 5- and 7-year.</p><p><blockquote>这些都无助于缓解通胀担忧，因为市场担心美联储正在迅速落后于曲线。正如我们上周指出的，5年期通胀预期达到2008年以来的最高水平以及强劲的就业数据只会强化人们对美联储需要比预期更快收紧政策的押注。这种猜测挤压了对5年至30年更陡峭曲线的押注，将利差从2月份的6年多高点167个基点缩小至略高于150个基点。5年期国债收益率为0.84%，远低于去年以来的最高水平。但与此同时，由于美联储将在不久的将来将利率维持在接近零的水平，2年期国债仍接近历史低点。这使得人们对广受关注的10年期利率利差以及与5年期和7年期等其他期限利率利差的押注继续发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> And with the front-end anchored for a long, long time, the question then becomes what is the most lucrative steepener trade. “Some steepeners are better than others,” said Patrick Leary, senior trader and chief market strategist for Incapital. He expects the 2s10s to keep widening, but has taken profits on steepeners and is looking for a better point to re-enter. Other see potential in the 5- to 30-year steepener. TD Securities has recommended entering that bet at 146.5 basis points, targeting 170, based on what it said was a high bar for hikes and the prospect of elevated coupon supply.</p><p><blockquote>随着前端锚定很长很长一段时间，问题就变成了什么是最有利可图的陡峭交易。Incapital高级交易员兼首席市场策略师帕特里克·利里(Patrick Leary)表示：“有些陡峭化者比其他者更好。”他预计2s10s将继续扩大，但已在陡峭的地方获利了结，并正在寻找更好的重新进入点。其他人则看到了5至30年陡峭时期的潜力。道明证券(TD Securities)建议以146.5个基点入场，目标为170个基点，理由是加息的门槛很高以及息票供应增加的前景。</blockquote></p><p> Taking a step back, the reason why traders have been so focused on the 5-year part of the curve, i.e., \"the belly\", is because it’s seen as one place that may bear the brunt of any subsequent selloff should rate-hike speculation mount further, since the bulk of the liftoff regime is expected to take place within the maturity of a 5 Year note issued now.</p><p><blockquote>退一步说，交易员之所以如此关注曲线的5年期部分，即“腹部”，是因为如果加息投机进一步加剧，它被视为可能首当其冲遭受任何后续抛售的地方，因为大部分起飞制度预计将在现在发行的5年期票据到期后发生。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, as Bloomberg notes already certain corners of the market are turning their attention to the potential for multiple rate hikes.<b>In swaptions,</b><b><u>a position has emerged targeting the Fed to hike seven to eight times by March 2025, according to a Barclays analysis</u></b><b>.</b></p><p><blockquote>此外，正如彭博社指出的那样，市场的某些角落已经将注意力转向多次加息的可能性。<b>在掉期期权中，</b><b><u>巴克莱银行的分析显示，美联储的目标是到2025年3月加息七到八次</u></b><b>.</b></blockquote></p><p> There is, of course, the risk that markets have gotten ahead of themselves - the whole point of a recent RIC report from BofA, which does not see anywhere nearly enough sustained inflation to justify a 2022 rate hike, let alone 7 by 2025: “it’s possible the market may have gotten a little ahead of itself in the belly,” causing the 5-year rate to rise too much, said Jamie Anderson, head of U.S. trading for Insight Investment. If the data come in weak or the Fed is on hold for longer than expected, “the belly should rally and the curve re-steepen,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>当然，市场存在超前的风险——这就是美国银行最近发布的RIC报告的全部要点，该报告认为任何地方都没有足够的持续通胀来证明2022年加息是合理的，更不用说到2025年加息7次了：Insight Investment美国交易主管杰米·安德森(Jamie Anderson)表示，“市场可能有点超前了”，导致5年期利率上涨过多。他表示，如果数据疲软或美联储按兵不动的时间长于预期，“腹部应该会反弹，曲线会重新变陡”。</blockquote></p><p> For Incapital’s Leary, the narrowing in the 5s30s gap came on the view that officials may discuss - or even announce - a twist next week. Such an operation, involving the sale of shorter-dated holdings and purchase of longer maturities to control yields, would put more pressure on the belly, he says. That would follow the European Central Bank’s decision to ramp up its bond-buying pace.</p><p><blockquote>对于Incapital的Leary来说，5s30差距的缩小是因为官员们可能会在下周讨论甚至宣布一个转折。他表示，这种操作涉及出售短期资产并购买长期资产以控制收益率，将给腹部带来更大压力。此前，欧洲央行决定加快债券购买步伐。</blockquote></p><p> “All these trades are highly dependent on the Fed being on the sidelines and not changing its policy stance,” Leary said.<b>“The market is definitely playing a game of chicken with the Fed, by testing how high yields can get before tightening financial conditions and forcing the Fed to step in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>Leary表示：“所有这些交易都高度依赖美联储保持观望，不改变政策立场。”<b>“市场肯定是在和美联储玩一场吃鸡的游戏，在收紧金融状况并迫使美联储介入之前，测试收益率能达到多高。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, even as some strategists have brushed aside the yield risk for growth stocks, claiming that tech has shown a fickle relationship with Treasuries over time, Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research,<b>found that since 2014, the Nasdaq 100’s forward earnings yield - the inverse of its price-earnings ratio where the higher it is, the cheaper stocks are - has moved almost in lockstep with forecast corporate bond rates.</b></p><p><blockquote>与此同时，尽管一些策略师无视成长型股票的收益率风险，声称随着时间的推移，科技股与美国国债的关系变化无常，但Ned Davis Research首席全球宏观策略师Joe Kalish表示，<b>研究发现，自2014年以来，纳斯达克100指数的远期收益率（市盈率的倒数，市盈率越高，股票越便宜）几乎与预测的公司债券利率同步变动。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In his model, if 10-year Treasury yields rise to 2% this year, that in turn could drive long-term Baa-rated bond rates to 4.5%, a scenario where<b>the Nasdaq 100 would have to drop as much as 20% to stay attractive, all else equal.</b>If yields climbed but the Nasdaq didn’t move, this would indicate over-valuation, Kalish said, adding his model correctly flashed warnings in 1987 and 2000.</p><p><blockquote>在他的模型中，如果10年期美国国债收益率今年升至2%，这反过来可能会将长期Baa评级债券利率推至4.5%，在这种情况下<b>在其他条件相同的情况下，纳斯达克100指数必须下跌20%才能保持吸引力。</b>卡利什表示，如果收益率攀升但纳斯达克没有变动，这将表明估值过高，并补充说他的模型在1987年和2000年正确地发出了警告。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e1270022eb5742b2cf2a7c328a5d897\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"380\">Also keep in mind that even after the recent drop, the price-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 - at 28 - is nowhere near cheap relative to other stocks, and is a 7% premium over the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>另请记住，即使在最近下跌之后，纳斯达克100指数的市盈率（28）相对于其他股票来说也远不便宜，比标普500溢价7%。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the growth advantage that has sustained tech’s outperformance in all but one year since 2009 is poised to disappear - at least for the next two years - as pandemic-beaten firms like airlines and automakers roar back. Profits from software and internet companies are expected to expand 22% this year and 12% in 2022. Both lag behind the broad S&amp;P 500, where earnings are forecast to increase 24% and 15%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着航空公司和汽车制造商等遭受大流行打击的公司卷土重来，自2009年以来除一年外一直维持科技股优异表现的增长优势即将消失——至少在未来两年是这样。软件和互联网公司的利润预计今年将增长22%，2022年将增长12%。两者都落后于广泛的标普500，后者的盈利预计分别增长24%和15%。</blockquote></p><p> So going back to the top chart, and with Nasdaq 100 knocking on the door of its relative peak, it’d be a mistake not to consider the downside risk, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group首席投资策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示，回到顶部图表，随着纳斯达克100指数即将达到相对峰值，不考虑下行风险将是一个错误。</blockquote></p><p> “New-era investments are at a significant crossroads,” he said.<b>“After a prolonged period of extensive outperformance by the Nasdaq and tech stocks, it is not unreasonable to foresee a phase of underperformance, consolidation or even an outright collapse.”</b></p><p><blockquote>“新时代投资正处于一个重要的十字路口，”他说。<b>“在纳斯达克和科技股长期普遍表现出色之后，预计将出现一个表现不佳、整合甚至彻底崩溃的阶段并非没有道理。”</b></blockquote></p><p> If all this sounds unnecessarily convoluted, we remind you of what Rabobank's Michael Everysaid overnight, in what may be the best summary of the Fed's options:</p><p><blockquote>如果这一切听起来不必要地令人费解，我们提醒您荷兰合作银行的迈克尔·埃弗里(Michael Everyevery)一夜之间所说的话，这可能是对美联储选择的最佳总结：</blockquote></p><p>   \"If Powell does nothing, we could perhaps be on the verge of a 2013-style Taper Tantrum. That would send Godzilla-sized shockwaves through markets everywhere, including Tokyo. (And I now think of 1970/80’s British TV ads where a Mock-zilla would eat famous global landmarks before deciding he preferred a certain candy “even chewier than a Barrow-in-Furness bus depot.”) \"\"Of course, Powell could say something or do something: Operation Twist and Shout; or YCC. First of all, this would then show that there is a disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed, which is hardly ideal. Moreover, such steps would prompt a major market flattening, but of two different kinds (short end up and long end down; or just long end down).  <b>As I keep repeating here, YCC would also open the door for some seriously new epic adventures, like opening the mysterious giant gate behind which King Kong is found on his remote island.\"</b>  In short, brace for a burst of volatility on Thursday when Powell (and tech stock bulls) will be damned if the Fed Chair<i><b>doesn't</b></i>do anything, and damned if he&nbsp;<u><b>does</b></u>...</p><p><blockquote>“如果鲍威尔什么都不做，我们可能会处于2013年式的缩减恐慌的边缘。这将给包括东京在内的世界各地的市场带来哥斯拉大小的冲击波。（我现在想起了1970/80年代的英国电视广告，一个模拟zilla会吃掉著名的全球地标，然后决定他更喜欢某种糖果“甚至比Barrow-in-Furness公交车站更有嚼劲。”）“当然，鲍威尔可以说些什么或做些什么：扭曲和呼喊行动；或者YCC。首先，这将表明财政部和美联储之间存在脱节，这并不理想。此外，这些措施将促使市场出现重大扁平化，但有两种不同的类型（短端上升和长端下降；或者只是长端向下）。<b>正如我在这里不断重复的那样，YCC也会为一些全新的史诗冒险打开大门，比如打开神秘的巨门，金刚在他的偏远岛屿上被发现。”</b>简而言之，为周四的波动做好准备，届时鲍威尔（和科技股多头）将受到诅咒，如果美联储主席<i><b>不是</b></i>做任何事，如果他<u><b>是的</b></u>...</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-sitting-incredibly-important-turning-point\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-sitting-incredibly-important-turning-point","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127134490","content_text":"Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&P 500 has been pulled lower (due to Nasdaq underperformance coupled with strength in value stocks) and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.\nPicking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"adding that \"the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotation signals.In our view, both tech and growth equities outperformance run is over and the rotation to value and commodity exposed equities has begun.\"\nAsBloomberg notes, while recent single-day rallies (4% on Tuesday and 2.4% on Thursday) lifted the Nasdaq 100 to its first gain in four weeks, they’re not calming nerves. After all, big up days are not uncommon during a downtrend.In 2000, when the market started a three-year crash, the index had 27 sessions where it rose at least 4%. That compared with six such days in 1999, when prices doubled.\n“The early stages of a bear market is typically punctuated by ferocious rallies, and what matters in the end is how far the rallies extend and not how quickly they move within a single session,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC. “Evidence continues to mount that the technology sector has finally relinquished its position as key global leadership.\"\nThat’s raising alarms for anyone who lived through the dot-com crash. Back then, when the Nasdaq 100 started falling in March 2000, the equal-weighted S&P 500 kept marching forward and didn’t peak until 14 months later -- a sign that money was being shifted away from the tech behemoths that soared in the internet bubble.Ultimately, the Nasdaq 100 lost half of its value.\n\n“People should not take solace in the fact that almost everything else besides the tech group is acting well,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.\n “If the tech group continues to underperform, it’s going to weigh on the rest of the stock market eventually.”\n\nA rotation out of growth and tech will only accelerate depending on what Powell says on Thursday, especially if he doesn't sound sufficient dovish and spooks markets again, triggering another bond rout, which by extension means a selloff in growth stocks which - as we have noted on many previous occasions -have near record high duration and are thus merely bond proxies to which hedge funds have never been more exposed.\nHowever, while all eyes were on the 10-Year during the late February \"reflation panic\" selloff which was sparked by a liquidation cascade in bonds once the 10Y breached 1.50%, the place on the Treasury curve where the next liquidation cascade could begin is now the belly, because asBloomberg writeswhereas back in December the thought was that the Federal Reserve might tamp down long-term Treasury yields, the issue now lies with shorter-dated ones, and specifically5-year rates.\nYields on that maturity have become unanchored in recent weeks, surging above the previous \"red line\" of 0.75% amid speculation that theFed will need to start a cycle of rate hikes perhaps a full year earlier than officials have indicated.That shift has also roiled the outlook for a classic iteration of the reflation wager, a widening gap between 5- and 30-year yields, even as the narrative of a stimulus-fueled recovery has only gained momentum.\n\"The Fed next week will have to walk a fine line between either pushing back against market expectations or allowing them to stand,\"said Kevin Walter, co-head of global Treasuries trading for Barclays. Without Fed pushback \"there might be more pressure on the belly of the curve,\" in which case the best steepeners would be the spreads between 2-year yields versus 5- and 7-year rates that have room to rise as traders price in tightening.\nAnd while most investment bank research divisions, and certainly the Fed, do not expect any liftoff until at least 2023,the swaps market has been reflecting a roughly 75% chance the Fed lifts rates from near zero by around the end of 2022.Indeed, Walter expects no major policy changes next week and anticipates that officials will continue to project rates on hold through 2023, however even doing nothing may force another round of selling amid the recent bout of soaring inflation, one seen as a push by the market to force Powell into some form of Yield Curve Control.\nOn the remote chance that the Fed does signal some 2023 hikes next week,the market will probably bring expectations for rate increases into the first half of 2022 and the 1-year-forward 5-year rate could increase 50 basis points, Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy for Mizuho International Plc,said in an emailed note. It would also lead to renewed rotation out of growth and into value, further depressing the Nasdaq to SPX chart shown above.\nThat said, most don't expect Powell to address the continued selling in either the long-end or more recently, the belly - the Fed chair gave only a minor reference to the bond-market slump that drove 10-year yields above 1.6%. He emphasized the importance of financial conditions, which remain accommodative, although tech stocks did sink on Friday as yields surged.\nNone of this will help ease inflation fears as the market fears the Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve. As we noted last week, 5Y inflation expectations at the highest since 2008 and robust jobs data have only reinforced bets that the Fed will need to tighten more quickly than it’s been forecasting. The speculation has squeezed wagers on a steeper curve from 5 to 30 years, shrinking that spread to a bit above 150 basis points, from a more than 6-year high of 167 in February. The 5-year yield at 0.84% isn’t far below its highest level since last year. But at the same time, the 2-year has remained near historic lows on the view that the Fed will hold rates near zero for the immediate future. That’s kept bets on the widely watched spread to the 10-year rate in play, as well as versus other maturities, such as the 5- and 7-year.\nAnd with the front-end anchored for a long, long time, the question then becomes what is the most lucrative steepener trade. “Some steepeners are better than others,” said Patrick Leary, senior trader and chief market strategist for Incapital. He expects the 2s10s to keep widening, but has taken profits on steepeners and is looking for a better point to re-enter. Other see potential in the 5- to 30-year steepener. TD Securities has recommended entering that bet at 146.5 basis points, targeting 170, based on what it said was a high bar for hikes and the prospect of elevated coupon supply.\nTaking a step back, the reason why traders have been so focused on the 5-year part of the curve, i.e., \"the belly\", is because it’s seen as one place that may bear the brunt of any subsequent selloff should rate-hike speculation mount further, since the bulk of the liftoff regime is expected to take place within the maturity of a 5 Year note issued now.\nFurthermore, as Bloomberg notes already certain corners of the market are turning their attention to the potential for multiple rate hikes.In swaptions,a position has emerged targeting the Fed to hike seven to eight times by March 2025, according to a Barclays analysis.\nThere is, of course, the risk that markets have gotten ahead of themselves - the whole point of a recent RIC report from BofA, which does not see anywhere nearly enough sustained inflation to justify a 2022 rate hike, let alone 7 by 2025: “it’s possible the market may have gotten a little ahead of itself in the belly,” causing the 5-year rate to rise too much, said Jamie Anderson, head of U.S. trading for Insight Investment. If the data come in weak or the Fed is on hold for longer than expected, “the belly should rally and the curve re-steepen,” he said.\nFor Incapital’s Leary, the narrowing in the 5s30s gap came on the view that officials may discuss - or even announce - a twist next week. Such an operation, involving the sale of shorter-dated holdings and purchase of longer maturities to control yields, would put more pressure on the belly, he says. That would follow the European Central Bank’s decision to ramp up its bond-buying pace.\n“All these trades are highly dependent on the Fed being on the sidelines and not changing its policy stance,” Leary said.“The market is definitely playing a game of chicken with the Fed, by testing how high yields can get before tightening financial conditions and forcing the Fed to step in.\"\nMeanwhile, even as some strategists have brushed aside the yield risk for growth stocks, claiming that tech has shown a fickle relationship with Treasuries over time, Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research,found that since 2014, the Nasdaq 100’s forward earnings yield - the inverse of its price-earnings ratio where the higher it is, the cheaper stocks are - has moved almost in lockstep with forecast corporate bond rates.\nIn his model, if 10-year Treasury yields rise to 2% this year, that in turn could drive long-term Baa-rated bond rates to 4.5%, a scenario wherethe Nasdaq 100 would have to drop as much as 20% to stay attractive, all else equal.If yields climbed but the Nasdaq didn’t move, this would indicate over-valuation, Kalish said, adding his model correctly flashed warnings in 1987 and 2000.\nAlso keep in mind that even after the recent drop, the price-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 - at 28 - is nowhere near cheap relative to other stocks, and is a 7% premium over the S&P 500.\nFinally, the growth advantage that has sustained tech’s outperformance in all but one year since 2009 is poised to disappear - at least for the next two years - as pandemic-beaten firms like airlines and automakers roar back. Profits from software and internet companies are expected to expand 22% this year and 12% in 2022. Both lag behind the broad S&P 500, where earnings are forecast to increase 24% and 15%, respectively.\nSo going back to the top chart, and with Nasdaq 100 knocking on the door of its relative peak, it’d be a mistake not to consider the downside risk, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group.\n“New-era investments are at a significant crossroads,” he said.“After a prolonged period of extensive outperformance by the Nasdaq and tech stocks, it is not unreasonable to foresee a phase of underperformance, consolidation or even an outright collapse.”\nIf all this sounds unnecessarily convoluted, we remind you of what Rabobank's Michael Everysaid overnight, in what may be the best summary of the Fed's options:\n\n \"If Powell does nothing, we could perhaps be on the verge of a 2013-style Taper Tantrum. That would send Godzilla-sized shockwaves through markets everywhere, including Tokyo. (And I now think of 1970/80’s British TV ads where a Mock-zilla would eat famous global landmarks before deciding he preferred a certain candy “even chewier than a Barrow-in-Furness bus depot.”) \"\"Of course, Powell could say something or do something: Operation Twist and Shout; or YCC. First of all, this would then show that there is a disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed, which is hardly ideal. Moreover, such steps would prompt a major market flattening, but of two different kinds (short end up and long end down; or just long end down).\n As I keep repeating here, YCC would also open the door for some seriously new epic adventures, like opening the mysterious giant gate behind which King Kong is found on his remote island.\"\n\nIn short, brace for a burst of volatility on Thursday when Powell (and tech stock bulls) will be damned if the Fed Chairdoesn'tdo anything, and damned if he does...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322135515,"gmtCreate":1615781822237,"gmtModify":1703492861045,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322135515","repostId":"1161179297","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161179297","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615771321,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161179297?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-15 09:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161179297","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.Stocks of electric-vehicle  makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach","content":"<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价低迷之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值也很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车(EV)制造商的股票在2020年加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为这个全球最大的汽车市场继续向交通领域的电气化迈进。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增长到500万辆。据研究机构BloombergNEF称，到2030年，这一数字可能达到1000万，到2040年接近2000万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个更好，尤其是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合适的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，世界上最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，将会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）在上海建立第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们总共交付了131,000辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点。<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易代码：比亚迪）2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2020年交付了近44,000辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的销量比2019年增加了一倍多，达到27,041辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年初推出以来，小鹏汽车的P7运动型轿车累计交付量已超过20,000辆，超越G3紧凑型SUV成为该公司最受欢迎的汽车。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付20,000辆汽车的最快速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款ET7豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统可以延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员靠近时自动释放车门的“电子锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股票分别较2021年1月的高点下跌了27%和38%，现在是看看哪一个可能更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都尚未盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都非常高，但销售额预计将快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它的成本低于小鹏汽车。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借ET7进军豪华轿车领域可能有助于将该公司推向一个新的水平。2020年毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路在望。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望有足够的资本来资助计划的增长工作。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上的现金和现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资为65亿美元，小鹏汽车约为54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港联交所上市来筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于只想选择一家公司来参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，有可能出现很大的波动。但对于那些能够承受这一点并进行适当投资的人来说，最近股价的下跌使蔚来目前比小鹏汽车更值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-15 09:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价低迷之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值也很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车(EV)制造商的股票在2020年加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为这个全球最大的汽车市场继续向交通领域的电气化迈进。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增长到500万辆。据研究机构BloombergNEF称，到2030年，这一数字可能达到1000万，到2040年接近2000万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个更好，尤其是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合适的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，世界上最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，将会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）在上海建立第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们总共交付了131,000辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点。<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易代码：比亚迪）2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2020年交付了近44,000辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的销量比2019年增加了一倍多，达到27,041辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年初推出以来，小鹏汽车的P7运动型轿车累计交付量已超过20,000辆，超越G3紧凑型SUV成为该公司最受欢迎的汽车。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付20,000辆汽车的最快速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款ET7豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统可以延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员靠近时自动释放车门的“电子锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股票分别较2021年1月的高点下跌了27%和38%，现在是看看哪一个可能更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都尚未盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都非常高，但销售额预计将快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它的成本低于小鹏汽车。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借ET7进军豪华轿车领域可能有助于将该公司推向一个新的水平。2020年毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路在望。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望有足够的资本来资助计划的增长工作。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上的现金和现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资为65亿美元，小鹏汽车约为54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港联交所上市来筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于只想选择一家公司来参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，有可能出现很大的波动。但对于那些能够承受这一点并进行适当投资的人来说，最近股价的下跌使蔚来目前比小鹏汽车更值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161179297","content_text":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.\nStocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.\nEV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are NIO (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.\nThe right market\nAs noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that BYD (OTC:BYDDY) sold in 2020.\nNIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.\nXPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.\nNIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.\nPriced for perfection\nThe strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.\nNeither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The price-to-sales ratios (P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.\nNIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS\nThough NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.\nLooking ahead\nNIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.\nBoth companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.\nFor investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328004236,"gmtCreate":1615473740325,"gmtModify":1703489603735,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328004236","repostId":"1124053377","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321683737,"gmtCreate":1615428988429,"gmtModify":1703488926525,"author":{"id":"3574925934110012","authorId":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorIdStr":"3574925934110012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;hoping for brighter weeks ahead","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;hoping for brighter weeks ahead","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ hoping for brighter weeks ahead","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0542cf483a7e4feeb7ad14cd155cdd5c","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321683737","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}