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VicVic3527

VicVic3527

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2021-04-06

Gogo Jones! Like like thanks!

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2021-05-14

Buy the dip!

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2021-05-15

To the moon! Like please thanks

Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote>

2021-05-07

Still undervalued? So expensive already... Like if you agree

Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>

2021-04-18

Expire like milk

$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote>

2021-04-03

Honestly I still think TSLA Is overhyped. Like if you agree.

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2021-03-07

Buy dip dip buy!

Palantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir暴跌超13%</blockquote>

2021-05-02

Smart man.

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2021-03-23

Gg discord.

Microsoft in talks to acquire Discord for more than $10 billion: Bloomberg News<blockquote>微软正在洽谈以超过100亿美元收购Discord：彭博新闻</blockquote>

2021-03-22

Chiong ah

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2021-03-17

Wow 10 fold isn't a joke.

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2021-03-06

Buy the dip! Tomorrow the dip become high... Then buy tomorrow dip!

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2021-04-11

Netflix vs Disney+.. Which is better?

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2021-03-28

Hmmm really?

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2021-03-21

Mark ah Mark... Stop earning money leh...

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2021-03-14

Tesla OP

Tesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote>

2021-03-09

Have trust in Cathie...?

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2021-04-16

PLTR all the way!

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2021-05-12

Liars!

Opinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点：华尔街的“弥天大谎”：越来越令人难以置信的业绩声明</blockquote>

2021-05-08

Crypto all the way

What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote>

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the moon! Like please thanks&nbsp;","listText":"To the moon! Like please thanks&nbsp;","text":"To the moon! Like please thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196690323","repostId":"1163454382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163454382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621004581,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163454382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-14 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163454382","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million. First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinat","content":"<p>  <b>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.</b>  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在再次融资后，AMC投资者有理由更加乐观。</b><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> A day after<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>(NYSE:AMC)</p><p><blockquote>一天后<b>AMC院线控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC）</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million</p><p><blockquote>昨天的股价上涨是在该公司宣布筹集4.28亿美元后发生的</blockquote></p><p> First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，美国疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）发布了一份关于当前健康和安全协议的新声明，称完全接种疫苗的人可以在不戴口罩或保持身体距离的情况下恢复活动，包括在室内。</blockquote></p><p> This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.</p><p><blockquote>这将使电影院能够满负荷开放，并成为接种疫苗的电影顾客的理想目的地。同样在昨天，<b>迪斯尼</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）宣布了季度收益报告，首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克指出“我们工作室的产量有所增加”。虽然这对影院运营商来说是积极的，但迪士尼也报告称其流媒体服务的用户增长令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Lower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.</p><p><blockquote>流媒体订阅量的下降对影院业务来说可能是一个积极的信号。随着疫苗接种的继续推广，以及疾病预防控制中心现在正式批准在不戴口罩的情况下与人群聚集在室内，剧院的上座率可能会很快恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗接种将促使人们回到户外活动。在一年多的时间里，电影院可能会成为人们最喜欢的目的地。在另一次融资之后，AMC投资者可能认为这家公司终于有了一条充满希望的未来之路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-14 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.</b>  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在再次融资后，AMC投资者有理由更加乐观。</b><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> A day after<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>(NYSE:AMC)</p><p><blockquote>一天后<b>AMC院线控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC）</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million</p><p><blockquote>昨天的股价上涨是在该公司宣布筹集4.28亿美元后发生的</blockquote></p><p> First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，美国疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）发布了一份关于当前健康和安全协议的新声明，称完全接种疫苗的人可以在不戴口罩或保持身体距离的情况下恢复活动，包括在室内。</blockquote></p><p> This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.</p><p><blockquote>这将使电影院能够满负荷开放，并成为接种疫苗的电影顾客的理想目的地。同样在昨天，<b>迪斯尼</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）宣布了季度收益报告，首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克指出“我们工作室的产量有所增加”。虽然这对影院运营商来说是积极的，但迪士尼也报告称其流媒体服务的用户增长令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Lower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.</p><p><blockquote>流媒体订阅量的下降对影院业务来说可能是一个积极的信号。随着疫苗接种的继续推广，以及疾病预防控制中心现在正式批准在不戴口罩的情况下与人群聚集在室内，剧院的上座率可能会很快恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗接种将促使人们回到户外活动。在一年多的时间里，电影院可能会成为人们最喜欢的目的地。在另一次融资之后，AMC投资者可能认为这家公司终于有了一条充满希望的未来之路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163454382","content_text":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.\n\nWhat happened\nA day afterAMC Entertainment Holdings(NYSE:AMC)\nSo what\nYesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million\nFirst, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.\nThis should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,Walt Disney(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.\nNow what\nLower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.\nVaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198797359,"gmtCreate":1620988930071,"gmtModify":1634194757317,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip!&nbsp;","listText":"Buy the dip!&nbsp;","text":"Buy the dip!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198797359","repostId":"2135945620","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193791116,"gmtCreate":1620817258735,"gmtModify":1634196099810,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Liars!&nbsp;","listText":"Liars!&nbsp;","text":"Liars!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193791116","repostId":"1174599088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174599088","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620814183,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174599088?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-12 18:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点：华尔街的“弥天大谎”：越来越令人难以置信的业绩声明</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174599088","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?I’m referring to a propaganda technique of ma","content":"<p><b>So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?</b>I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies are dismissed, but big lies are believed.</p><p><blockquote><b>所以你认为让你的钱翻10倍很容易？</b>我指的是一种宣传技巧，这种技巧使声明如此离谱，以至于人们认为它们一定有一定的真实性。小谎言被驳回，但大谎言被相信。</blockquote></p><p>Consider this bit of clickbait in my inbox that caught my eye over the weekend: <i>“</i>Easily 10x your Money with this Cryptocurrency.” One reason it got my attention is that it was written by an individual who three months ago wrote a similar attention-grabbing piece entitled “100x Your Money With This Cryptocurrency.”</p><p><blockquote>想想我收件箱中的这个点击诱饵，它在周末引起了我的注意：<i>“</i>使用这种加密货币，您的钱可以轻松增加10倍。”它引起我注意的一个原因是，它是由一个人写的，他三个月前写了一篇类似的引人注目的文章，题为“用这种加密货币让你的钱增加100倍”。</blockquote></p><p>The particular cryptocurrency he was championing in February is 13% lower today.</p><p><blockquote>他在2月份倡导的特定加密货币今天下跌了13%。</blockquote></p><p>For the record, I have no idea whether this individual was intentionally bending the truth. But the fact remains that no one produces long-term annualized returns in excess of percentages in the low double digits, whether for stocks or investments like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道这个人是否故意歪曲事实。但事实仍然是，无论是股票还是比特币和其他加密货币等投资，没有人能产生超过两位数百分比的长期年化回报率。</blockquote></p><p>No one. To claim that producing a 10x or a 100x return is “easy” is the functional equivalent of lying—even if the claim’s perpetrators don’t intend it to be.</p><p><blockquote>没有人。声称产生10倍或100倍的回报“很容易”在功能上相当于撒谎——即使这种说法的实施者并不打算这样做。</blockquote></p><p>That’s not to say that triple or even quadruple-digit returns aren’t occasionally—very occasionally—produced. But so are jackpots in Vegas. Because strategies that have even the potential of producing short-term gains that big are extraordinarily risky, regression to the mean will inevitably and quickly bring such returns back down to earth.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说三位数甚至四位数的回报不会偶尔——非常偶尔——产生。但拉斯维加斯的累积奖金也是如此。因为即使有可能产生如此大的短期收益的策略也是非常危险的，回归均值将不可避免地迅速将这种回报带回现实。</blockquote></p><p>Consider the evidence from my four decades of tracking the performance of investment newsletters. The accompanying chart reports the portfolio returns among monitored newsletters that are the highest over various holding periods. Over the last 12 months, the scoreboard-topping return is 248%. Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>想想我四十年来跟踪投资通讯表现的证据。随附的图表报告了在不同持有期内受监控的时事通讯中最高的投资组合回报。过去12个月，记分牌最高的回报率为248%。相比之下，将持有期延长至过去五年，记分牌顶部的回报率要低得多，年化回报率为33%。</blockquote></p><p>This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>如图所示，随着持有期的延长，这种下降趋势仍在继续。当我们关注过去40年时，现在的最佳年化回报率为14.0%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e72f13ee9de2c745913ad0debd3b6c0\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.</p><p><blockquote>不要以为这种模式是投资通讯行业独有的。共同基金和对冲基金也出现了几乎相同的结果。</blockquote></p><p>The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”</p><p><blockquote>据我所知，记录最好的长期回报是由Renaissance Technologies的私人奖章基金产生的。加州大学洛杉矶分校名誉教授Brad Cornell报告称，该基金在1988年至2018年间的年化回报率（扣除费用后）为39.2%，而标普500指数的年化回报率为10.0%，该基金的回报率远好于华尔街的任何人康奈尔承认“目瞪口呆”；他说，这种回归在功能上相当于“太阳从西边升起”。</blockquote></p><p>And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>然而，请注意，令人难以置信的大奖章基金的年化回报率“仅”为39%。这距离加密货币“轻松”100倍回报还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p>If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是婴儿潮一代，你已经知道并接受了这些教训。相比之下，如果你来自Z世代，艰难的学校还没有教你这些课程。</blockquote></p><p>I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.</p><p><blockquote>一个月前，我专门写了一篇专栏文章，探讨了牛市后期年龄与冒险行为之间的相关性。在最年轻的投资者经历第一次重大熊市之前，他们都是无所畏惧的冒险家，坚信赚钱很容易。经历过一次或多次严重熊市的老年投资者年龄更大、更明智。</blockquote></p><p>This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)</p><p><blockquote>这种对比在GamblersPick最近的一份报告中再次得到证实，GamblersPick是一个评论在线赌场的网站。该网站调查了872名投资者的风险承受能力；受访者在下表所列的四代人中几乎平分秋色。（未反映在表中的百分比中的那些人的余额表明他们是“中性的”，既不容忍风险也不厌恶风险。）</blockquote></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Generation</td><td>Risk-tolerant</td><td>Risk-averse</td></tr><tr><td>Gen Z</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Millennials</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>Gen X</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>Baby boomers and older</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>代</td><td>风险承受能力</td><td>规避风险</td></tr><tr><td>Z世代</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>千禧一代</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>X世代</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>婴儿潮一代及老年人</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>根据我的经验，再多的学术教育（“书本学习”）也无法完全替代从熊市中实际生活中学到的东西。这意味着今天能够承受风险的年轻投资者有一天会成为我们其他人今天看起来的老古董。</blockquote></p><p>In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，他们和市场都如履薄冰。虽然我们不知道未来几个月牛市的故事将如何展开，但我们确实知道它最终将如何结束。</blockquote></p><p>It’s not a happy one.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一个快乐的故事。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点：华尔街的“弥天大谎”：越来越令人难以置信的业绩声明</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点：华尔街的“弥天大谎”：越来越令人难以置信的业绩声明</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-12 18:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?</b>I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies are dismissed, but big lies are believed.</p><p><blockquote><b>所以你认为让你的钱翻10倍很容易？</b>我指的是一种宣传技巧，这种技巧使声明如此离谱，以至于人们认为它们一定有一定的真实性。小谎言被驳回，但大谎言被相信。</blockquote></p><p>Consider this bit of clickbait in my inbox that caught my eye over the weekend: <i>“</i>Easily 10x your Money with this Cryptocurrency.” One reason it got my attention is that it was written by an individual who three months ago wrote a similar attention-grabbing piece entitled “100x Your Money With This Cryptocurrency.”</p><p><blockquote>想想我收件箱中的这个点击诱饵，它在周末引起了我的注意：<i>“</i>使用这种加密货币，您的钱可以轻松增加10倍。”它引起我注意的一个原因是，它是由一个人写的，他三个月前写了一篇类似的引人注目的文章，题为“用这种加密货币让你的钱增加100倍”。</blockquote></p><p>The particular cryptocurrency he was championing in February is 13% lower today.</p><p><blockquote>他在2月份倡导的特定加密货币今天下跌了13%。</blockquote></p><p>For the record, I have no idea whether this individual was intentionally bending the truth. But the fact remains that no one produces long-term annualized returns in excess of percentages in the low double digits, whether for stocks or investments like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道这个人是否故意歪曲事实。但事实仍然是，无论是股票还是比特币和其他加密货币等投资，没有人能产生超过两位数百分比的长期年化回报率。</blockquote></p><p>No one. To claim that producing a 10x or a 100x return is “easy” is the functional equivalent of lying—even if the claim’s perpetrators don’t intend it to be.</p><p><blockquote>没有人。声称产生10倍或100倍的回报“很容易”在功能上相当于撒谎——即使这种说法的实施者并不打算这样做。</blockquote></p><p>That’s not to say that triple or even quadruple-digit returns aren’t occasionally—very occasionally—produced. But so are jackpots in Vegas. Because strategies that have even the potential of producing short-term gains that big are extraordinarily risky, regression to the mean will inevitably and quickly bring such returns back down to earth.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说三位数甚至四位数的回报不会偶尔——非常偶尔——产生。但拉斯维加斯的累积奖金也是如此。因为即使有可能产生如此大的短期收益的策略也是非常危险的，回归均值将不可避免地迅速将这种回报带回现实。</blockquote></p><p>Consider the evidence from my four decades of tracking the performance of investment newsletters. The accompanying chart reports the portfolio returns among monitored newsletters that are the highest over various holding periods. Over the last 12 months, the scoreboard-topping return is 248%. Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>想想我四十年来跟踪投资通讯表现的证据。随附的图表报告了在不同持有期内受监控的时事通讯中最高的投资组合回报。过去12个月，记分牌最高的回报率为248%。相比之下，将持有期延长至过去五年，记分牌顶部的回报率要低得多，年化回报率为33%。</blockquote></p><p>This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>如图所示，随着持有期的延长，这种下降趋势仍在继续。当我们关注过去40年时，现在的最佳年化回报率为14.0%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e72f13ee9de2c745913ad0debd3b6c0\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.</p><p><blockquote>不要以为这种模式是投资通讯行业独有的。共同基金和对冲基金也出现了几乎相同的结果。</blockquote></p><p>The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”</p><p><blockquote>据我所知，记录最好的长期回报是由Renaissance Technologies的私人奖章基金产生的。加州大学洛杉矶分校名誉教授Brad Cornell报告称，该基金在1988年至2018年间的年化回报率（扣除费用后）为39.2%，而标普500指数的年化回报率为10.0%，该基金的回报率远好于华尔街的任何人康奈尔承认“目瞪口呆”；他说，这种回归在功能上相当于“太阳从西边升起”。</blockquote></p><p>And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>然而，请注意，令人难以置信的大奖章基金的年化回报率“仅”为39%。这距离加密货币“轻松”100倍回报还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p>If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是婴儿潮一代，你已经知道并接受了这些教训。相比之下，如果你来自Z世代，艰难的学校还没有教你这些课程。</blockquote></p><p>I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.</p><p><blockquote>一个月前，我专门写了一篇专栏文章，探讨了牛市后期年龄与冒险行为之间的相关性。在最年轻的投资者经历第一次重大熊市之前，他们都是无所畏惧的冒险家，坚信赚钱很容易。经历过一次或多次严重熊市的老年投资者年龄更大、更明智。</blockquote></p><p>This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)</p><p><blockquote>这种对比在GamblersPick最近的一份报告中再次得到证实，GamblersPick是一个评论在线赌场的网站。该网站调查了872名投资者的风险承受能力；受访者在下表所列的四代人中几乎平分秋色。（未反映在表中的百分比中的那些人的余额表明他们是“中性的”，既不容忍风险也不厌恶风险。）</blockquote></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Generation</td><td>Risk-tolerant</td><td>Risk-averse</td></tr><tr><td>Gen Z</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Millennials</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>Gen X</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>Baby boomers and older</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>代</td><td>风险承受能力</td><td>规避风险</td></tr><tr><td>Z世代</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>千禧一代</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>X世代</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>婴儿潮一代及老年人</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>根据我的经验，再多的学术教育（“书本学习”）也无法完全替代从熊市中实际生活中学到的东西。这意味着今天能够承受风险的年轻投资者有一天会成为我们其他人今天看起来的老古董。</blockquote></p><p>In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，他们和市场都如履薄冰。虽然我们不知道未来几个月牛市的故事将如何展开，但我们确实知道它最终将如何结束。</blockquote></p><p>It’s not a happy one.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一个快乐的故事。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-big-lie-performance-claims-that-are-increasingly-straining-credulity-11620680630?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-big-lie-performance-claims-that-are-increasingly-straining-credulity-11620680630?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174599088","content_text":"So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies are dismissed, but big lies are believed.Consider this bit of clickbait in my inbox that caught my eye over the weekend: “Easily 10x your Money with this Cryptocurrency.” One reason it got my attention is that it was written by an individual who three months ago wrote a similar attention-grabbing piece entitled “100x Your Money With This Cryptocurrency.”The particular cryptocurrency he was championing in February is 13% lower today.For the record, I have no idea whether this individual was intentionally bending the truth. But the fact remains that no one produces long-term annualized returns in excess of percentages in the low double digits, whether for stocks or investments like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.No one. To claim that producing a 10x or a 100x return is “easy” is the functional equivalent of lying—even if the claim’s perpetrators don’t intend it to be.That’s not to say that triple or even quadruple-digit returns aren’t occasionally—very occasionally—produced. But so are jackpots in Vegas. Because strategies that have even the potential of producing short-term gains that big are extraordinarily risky, regression to the mean will inevitably and quickly bring such returns back down to earth.Consider the evidence from my four decades of tracking the performance of investment newsletters. The accompanying chart reports the portfolio returns among monitored newsletters that are the highest over various holding periods. Over the last 12 months, the scoreboard-topping return is 248%. Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&P 500 index That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)GenerationRisk-tolerantRisk-averseGen Z57%25%Millennials49%32%Gen X38%44%Baby boomers and older36%46%In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.It’s not a happy one.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199474267,"gmtCreate":1620731315159,"gmtModify":1634196780866,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tech always kena... Sad","listText":"Tech always kena... Sad","text":"Tech always kena... Sad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199474267","repostId":"2134551566","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190625194,"gmtCreate":1620617508418,"gmtModify":1634197649134,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Disney! Mickey Mouse to the moon!&nbsp;","listText":"Disney! Mickey Mouse to the moon!&nbsp;","text":"Disney! Mickey Mouse to the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190625194","repostId":"2134686276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107706927,"gmtCreate":1620535238469,"gmtModify":1634198175803,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sweet home alabama!&nbsp;","listText":"Sweet home alabama!&nbsp;","text":"Sweet home alabama!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107706927","repostId":"1123825898","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107893564,"gmtCreate":1620460402858,"gmtModify":1634198573889,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crypto all the way","listText":"Crypto all the way","text":"Crypto all the way","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107893564","repostId":"1122089368","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122089368","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620457397,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122089368?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 15:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122089368","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are t","content":"<p>To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>对于金融泡沫的老手来说，现在有很多熟悉的东西。股票估值是自2000年互联网泡沫以来最高的。房价回到了金融危机前的峰值。高风险公司可以以有记录以来的最低利率借款。个人投资者正在向绿色能源和加密货币投入资金。</blockquote></p><p>This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.</p><p><blockquote>这种繁荣有一些合理的解释，从数字商务的进步到可能是1983年以来最强劲的财政增长。</blockquote></p><p>But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>但最重要的是一个驱动因素：美联储。宽松的货币政策经常推动金融繁荣，现在尤其容易。美联储在过去一年中将利率维持在接近零的水平，并暗示利率至少在两年内不会改变。它正在购买数千亿美元的债券。因此，10年期国债收益率远低于通胀——即实际收益率深度为负——这是40年来的第二次。</blockquote></p><p>There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.</p><p><blockquote>利率如此之低是有充分理由的。美联储采取行动是为了应对一场疫情，这场疫情在最严重的时候可能造成的损害甚至比2007-09年的金融危机还要大。然而，这在很大程度上要归功于美联储和国会通过了约5万亿美元的财政刺激计划，这次复苏看起来比上次要健康得多。这可能会削弱利率如此之低的原因，威胁市场的基础。</blockquote></p><p>“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>与现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔一起担任美联储理事的哈佛大学经济学家杰里米·斯坦表示：“假设利率将长期处于低位，股市的定价至少是完美的。”“当然，你会感觉到美联储非常努力地说，‘一切都很好，我们不急于加息。’但虽然我不认为我们会走向持续的高通胀，但这是完全有可能的。我们将有几个季度的通胀热点数据。”</blockquote></p><p>Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”</p><p><blockquote>他问道，由于只有在利率保持极低水平的情况下，股票估值才是合理的，因此如果美联储不得不收紧货币政策以对抗通胀并且债券收益率上升1至1.5个百分点，股票如何重新定价。“资产价格可能会出现严重调整。”</blockquote></p><p><b>‘A bit frothy’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“有点泡沫”</b></blockquote></p><p>The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.</p><p><blockquote>美联储以前也来过这里。20世纪90年代末，为了应对亚洲金融危机和对冲基金长期资本管理公司几近崩溃，它愿意降息，这被一些人视为隐性的市场支持，助长了随后的互联网泡沫。泡沫破裂后的低利率政策被指责推高了房价。两次美联储官员都为自己的政策辩护，认为仅仅为了防止泡沫而加息（或不降息）会损害他们低失业率和通胀的主要目标，而且比让泡沫自行破灭造成的危害更大。</blockquote></p><p>As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.</p><p><blockquote>至于今年，央行在本周的一份报告中警告称，资产“估值普遍较高”，“如果投资者风险偏好下降、遏制病毒进展令人失望或复苏停滞，资产估值很容易大幅下跌”。4月28日，鲍威尔承认市场看起来“有点泡沫”，美联储可能是原因之一：“我不会说这与货币政策无关，但它与疫苗接种有很大关系和经济重新开放。”但他没有暗示美联储将缩减刺激措施：“经济距离我们的目标还有很长的路要走。”劳工部周五的一份报告显示，4月份创造的就业机会远低于华尔街的预期，这突显了这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储的选择深受金融危机的影响。尽管美联储当时将利率降至接近零的水平并购买了债券，但随着家庭、银行和政府寻求偿还债务，美联储正面临强大的阻力。这抑制了支出，并将通胀率推至美联储2%的目标以下。人口老龄化等深层次力量也抑制了经济增长和利率，一些人将这种组合称为“长期停滞”。</blockquote></p><p>The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>一年前的疫情关闭引发了对经济产出的打击，最初比金融危机还要严重。但两个月后，随着限制放松和企业适应社交距离，经济活动开始复苏。美联储启动了新的贷款计划，国会通过了2.2万亿美元的Cares法案。疫苗比预期的更早到达。美国经济可能会在本季度达到大流行前的规模，比金融危机后快两年。</blockquote></p><p>And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，即使前景有所改善，财政和货币的水龙头仍然敞开着。去年5月，民主党人首次提出额外3万亿美元的刺激计划，当时预计去年产出将下降6%。实际上下降了不到一半，但民主党在赢得白宫和国会后，继续推进同样规模的刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于2020年3月开始购买债券，以应对市场的混乱状况。夏末，随着市场正常运转，它延长了该计划，同时将理由转向保持低债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，它公布了一个新框架：在通胀率多年低于2%之后，它的目标是将通胀率不仅推回到2%，而且更高，以便随着时间的推移，平均通胀率和预期通胀率都稳定在2%。为此，它承诺在充分就业恢复、通胀率达到2%并走高之前不会加息。官员们预测这种情况在2024年之前不会发生，尽管前景显着改善，但此后仍坚持这一指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Running of the bulls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奔牛节</b></blockquote></p><p>This injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&amp;P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的一项调查显示，向因疫苗接种而已经反弹的经济注入前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施，这就是华尔街策略师自上次金融危机前以来最看好股市的原因。虽然盈利预测大幅上升，但股市涨幅更大。根据FactSet的数据，标普500股票指数目前的交易价格约为来年利润的22倍，这一水平仅在2000年互联网繁荣的顶峰时期才超过。</blockquote></p><p>Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.</p><p><blockquote>其他资产市场也同样捉襟见肘。根据彭博巴克莱的数据，投资者愿意以至少1995年以来的最低收益率以及自2007年以来与安全国债的最窄利差购买垃圾级公司的债券。经通胀调整后，住宅和商业地产价格接近2006年达到的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.</p><p><blockquote>今天的股票和房地产估值比2000年或2006年更加合理，因为无风险国债的回报率要低得多。从这个意义上说，美联储的政策完全按照预期发挥作用：改善经济前景，这有利于利润、住房需求和企业信誉；和风险偏好。</blockquote></p><p>Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，低利率不再足以证明某些资产估值的合理性。相反，多头会调用替代指标。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近指出，碳排放量相对较低、用水效率较高的公司估值较高。这些估值并不是优越的现金流或利润前景的结果，而是根据环境、社会和治理（ESG）标准投资的资金浪潮。</blockquote></p><p>Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.</p><p><blockquote>对于不赚取利息、租金或股息的加密货币，传统估值也毫无用处。相反，倡导者声称数字货币将取代央行发行的法定货币作为交易媒介和价值储存手段。“加密货币有可能像互联网一样具有革命性并被广泛采用，”加密货币交易所Coinbase GlobalInc.首次公开募股的招股说明书称，其语言让人想起二十多年前与互联网相关的IPO。根据信息服务机构CoinDesk的数据，截至4月29日，加密货币的价值超过2万亿美元，大致相当于所有流通中的美元。</blockquote></p><p>Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>金融创新也在发挥作用，就像过去的金融繁荣一样。投资组合保险是一种旨在对冲市场损失的策略，在1987年股市崩盘期间放大了抛售。20世纪90年代，互联网股票经纪人推动了科技股的上涨，而在21世纪初，次级抵押贷款衍生品帮助为住房融资。今天的等价物是零佣金经纪商，如Robinhood Markets Inc.、部分所有权和社交媒体，所有这些都赋予了个人投资者权力。</blockquote></p><p>Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&amp;P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据世界各国央行组成的财团国际清算银行最近的一份报告，此类投资者越来越多地影响整体市场的走向。例如，它发现，自2017年以来，跟踪机构投资者最喜欢的标普500的交易所交易基金的交易量已经持平，而个人投资者更喜欢的成分股的交易量却在攀升。报告指出，个人更有可能出于与其基础业务无关的原因购买一家公司的股票，例如，因为该公司的名称与另一只正在上涨的股票相似。</blockquote></p><p>While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种猜测经常被归咎于美联储，但很难划清界限。财政刺激则不然。金融研究公司Bianco Research的负责人Jim Bianco表示，随着财政部发放1400美元的刺激支票，3月份流入交易所交易基金和共同基金的资金激增。“你用支票做的第一件事就是将其存入你的账户，到2021年，这就是你的经纪账户，”比安科先生说。</blockquote></p><p><b>Facing the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>面向未来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>It’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.</p><p><blockquote>无法预测这一切将如何结束，甚至是否会结束。事实并非如此：高价股票最终可能会赚取必要的利润来证明当今的估值是合理的，尤其是在经济目前处于领先地位的情况下。与此同时，随着利润令人失望或竞争的出现，更极端的投机领域可能会在自身压力下崩溃。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.</p><p><blockquote>比特币曾威胁要取代美元；现在，许多竞争对手也声称要做同样的事情。特斯拉公司曾经是你唯一可以购买来押注电动汽车的股票；现在有蔚来、NikolaCorp.和FiskerInc.，更不用说大众汽车公司和通用汽车公司等老牌制造商正在推出越来越多的电动车型。</blockquote></p><p>But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.</p><p><blockquote>但资产全面下跌可能涉及某种宏观经济事件，例如经济衰退、金融危机或通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上周的报告称，该病毒仍然是对经济乃至金融体系的最大威胁。4月份的就业令人失望提醒人们经济前景仍然多么不稳定。尽管如此，随着病毒的消退，经济衰退现在似乎不太可能发生。不能排除与某种隐藏的脆弱性相关的金融危机。尽管如此，银行拥有如此多的资本，而抵押贷款承销又如此紧张，以至于类似于2007-09年始于抵押贷款违约的金融危机似乎很遥远。如果垃圾债券、加密货币或科技股主要是用借来的钱购买的，其价值暴跌可能会引发一波强制抛售、破产和潜在的危机。但这似乎并没有发生。Archegos Capital Management最近因衍生品股票投资逆转而倒闭，给其贷方造成了损失。但这并没有威胁到他们的生存，也没有引发对处境相似的公司的蔓延。</blockquote></p><p>“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”</p><p><blockquote>“第二个阿尔奇戈斯在哪里？”比安科先生说。“还没有。”</blockquote></p><p>That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>这就剩下通货膨胀了。由于半导体、木材和工人的短缺都给价格和成本带来了上行压力，对通胀的担忧现在很普遍。大多数预测者和美联储认为，一旦经济重新开放和正常支出模式恢复，这些压力将会缓解。尽管如此，常规债券收益率和通胀指数债券收益率之间的差异表明，投资者预计未来几年的通胀率平均约为2.5%。这很难是20世纪70年代的重演，也符合美联储长期平均通胀率2%的新目标。尽管如此，这将明显打破过去十年低于2%的区间。</blockquote></p><p>Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw &amp; Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.</p><p><blockquote>通胀略高将导致美联储将短期利率也略高，这不一定会损害股票估值。更令人担忧的是：对股票价值至关重要的长期债券收益率可能会大幅上升。自20世纪90年代末以来，债券和股票价格往往朝着相反的方向波动。这是因为当通胀不是问题时，经济冲击往往会压低债券收益率（与价格走势相反）和股票价格。因此，债券充当了抵御股票损失的保险政策，投资者愿意接受较低的收益率。如果通货膨胀再次成为一个问题，那么债券就会失去保险价值，其收益率就会上升。前美联储经济学家、现就职于对冲基金D.E.的布莱恩·萨克(Brian Sack)表示，近几个月来，过去几十年大部分时间里存在的股债相关性开始消失。肖公司。他将此部分归因于通胀担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，通货膨胀主导了金融领域，这导致投资者对资产定价，就好像通货膨胀再也不会产生这种影响一样。他们可能是对的。但如果史无前例的货币和财政刺激组合成功地使经济摆脱了过去十年的模式，这种自满可能会付出相当大的代价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 15:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>对于金融泡沫的老手来说，现在有很多熟悉的东西。股票估值是自2000年互联网泡沫以来最高的。房价回到了金融危机前的峰值。高风险公司可以以有记录以来的最低利率借款。个人投资者正在向绿色能源和加密货币投入资金。</blockquote></p><p>This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.</p><p><blockquote>这种繁荣有一些合理的解释，从数字商务的进步到可能是1983年以来最强劲的财政增长。</blockquote></p><p>But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>但最重要的是一个驱动因素：美联储。宽松的货币政策经常推动金融繁荣，现在尤其容易。美联储在过去一年中将利率维持在接近零的水平，并暗示利率至少在两年内不会改变。它正在购买数千亿美元的债券。因此，10年期国债收益率远低于通胀——即实际收益率深度为负——这是40年来的第二次。</blockquote></p><p>There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.</p><p><blockquote>利率如此之低是有充分理由的。美联储采取行动是为了应对一场疫情，这场疫情在最严重的时候可能造成的损害甚至比2007-09年的金融危机还要大。然而，这在很大程度上要归功于美联储和国会通过了约5万亿美元的财政刺激计划，这次复苏看起来比上次要健康得多。这可能会削弱利率如此之低的原因，威胁市场的基础。</blockquote></p><p>“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>与现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔一起担任美联储理事的哈佛大学经济学家杰里米·斯坦表示：“假设利率将长期处于低位，股市的定价至少是完美的。”“当然，你会感觉到美联储非常努力地说，‘一切都很好，我们不急于加息。’但虽然我不认为我们会走向持续的高通胀，但这是完全有可能的。我们将有几个季度的通胀热点数据。”</blockquote></p><p>Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”</p><p><blockquote>他问道，由于只有在利率保持极低水平的情况下，股票估值才是合理的，因此如果美联储不得不收紧货币政策以对抗通胀并且债券收益率上升1至1.5个百分点，股票如何重新定价。“资产价格可能会出现严重调整。”</blockquote></p><p><b>‘A bit frothy’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“有点泡沫”</b></blockquote></p><p>The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.</p><p><blockquote>美联储以前也来过这里。20世纪90年代末，为了应对亚洲金融危机和对冲基金长期资本管理公司几近崩溃，它愿意降息，这被一些人视为隐性的市场支持，助长了随后的互联网泡沫。泡沫破裂后的低利率政策被指责推高了房价。两次美联储官员都为自己的政策辩护，认为仅仅为了防止泡沫而加息（或不降息）会损害他们低失业率和通胀的主要目标，而且比让泡沫自行破灭造成的危害更大。</blockquote></p><p>As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.</p><p><blockquote>至于今年，央行在本周的一份报告中警告称，资产“估值普遍较高”，“如果投资者风险偏好下降、遏制病毒进展令人失望或复苏停滞，资产估值很容易大幅下跌”。4月28日，鲍威尔承认市场看起来“有点泡沫”，美联储可能是原因之一：“我不会说这与货币政策无关，但它与疫苗接种有很大关系和经济重新开放。”但他没有暗示美联储将缩减刺激措施：“经济距离我们的目标还有很长的路要走。”劳工部周五的一份报告显示，4月份创造的就业机会远低于华尔街的预期，这突显了这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储的选择深受金融危机的影响。尽管美联储当时将利率降至接近零的水平并购买了债券，但随着家庭、银行和政府寻求偿还债务，美联储正面临强大的阻力。这抑制了支出，并将通胀率推至美联储2%的目标以下。人口老龄化等深层次力量也抑制了经济增长和利率，一些人将这种组合称为“长期停滞”。</blockquote></p><p>The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>一年前的疫情关闭引发了对经济产出的打击，最初比金融危机还要严重。但两个月后，随着限制放松和企业适应社交距离，经济活动开始复苏。美联储启动了新的贷款计划，国会通过了2.2万亿美元的Cares法案。疫苗比预期的更早到达。美国经济可能会在本季度达到大流行前的规模，比金融危机后快两年。</blockquote></p><p>And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，即使前景有所改善，财政和货币的水龙头仍然敞开着。去年5月，民主党人首次提出额外3万亿美元的刺激计划，当时预计去年产出将下降6%。实际上下降了不到一半，但民主党在赢得白宫和国会后，继续推进同样规模的刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于2020年3月开始购买债券，以应对市场的混乱状况。夏末，随着市场正常运转，它延长了该计划，同时将理由转向保持低债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，它公布了一个新框架：在通胀率多年低于2%之后，它的目标是将通胀率不仅推回到2%，而且更高，以便随着时间的推移，平均通胀率和预期通胀率都稳定在2%。为此，它承诺在充分就业恢复、通胀率达到2%并走高之前不会加息。官员们预测这种情况在2024年之前不会发生，尽管前景显着改善，但此后仍坚持这一指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Running of the bulls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奔牛节</b></blockquote></p><p>This injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&amp;P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的一项调查显示，向因疫苗接种而已经反弹的经济注入前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施，这就是华尔街策略师自上次金融危机前以来最看好股市的原因。虽然盈利预测大幅上升，但股市涨幅更大。根据FactSet的数据，标普500股票指数目前的交易价格约为来年利润的22倍，这一水平仅在2000年互联网繁荣的顶峰时期才超过。</blockquote></p><p>Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.</p><p><blockquote>其他资产市场也同样捉襟见肘。根据彭博巴克莱的数据，投资者愿意以至少1995年以来的最低收益率以及自2007年以来与安全国债的最窄利差购买垃圾级公司的债券。经通胀调整后，住宅和商业地产价格接近2006年达到的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.</p><p><blockquote>今天的股票和房地产估值比2000年或2006年更加合理，因为无风险国债的回报率要低得多。从这个意义上说，美联储的政策完全按照预期发挥作用：改善经济前景，这有利于利润、住房需求和企业信誉；和风险偏好。</blockquote></p><p>Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，低利率不再足以证明某些资产估值的合理性。相反，多头会调用替代指标。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近指出，碳排放量相对较低、用水效率较高的公司估值较高。这些估值并不是优越的现金流或利润前景的结果，而是根据环境、社会和治理（ESG）标准投资的资金浪潮。</blockquote></p><p>Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.</p><p><blockquote>对于不赚取利息、租金或股息的加密货币，传统估值也毫无用处。相反，倡导者声称数字货币将取代央行发行的法定货币作为交易媒介和价值储存手段。“加密货币有可能像互联网一样具有革命性并被广泛采用，”加密货币交易所Coinbase GlobalInc.首次公开募股的招股说明书称，其语言让人想起二十多年前与互联网相关的IPO。根据信息服务机构CoinDesk的数据，截至4月29日，加密货币的价值超过2万亿美元，大致相当于所有流通中的美元。</blockquote></p><p>Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>金融创新也在发挥作用，就像过去的金融繁荣一样。投资组合保险是一种旨在对冲市场损失的策略，在1987年股市崩盘期间放大了抛售。20世纪90年代，互联网股票经纪人推动了科技股的上涨，而在21世纪初，次级抵押贷款衍生品帮助为住房融资。今天的等价物是零佣金经纪商，如Robinhood Markets Inc.、部分所有权和社交媒体，所有这些都赋予了个人投资者权力。</blockquote></p><p>Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&amp;P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据世界各国央行组成的财团国际清算银行最近的一份报告，此类投资者越来越多地影响整体市场的走向。例如，它发现，自2017年以来，跟踪机构投资者最喜欢的标普500的交易所交易基金的交易量已经持平，而个人投资者更喜欢的成分股的交易量却在攀升。报告指出，个人更有可能出于与其基础业务无关的原因购买一家公司的股票，例如，因为该公司的名称与另一只正在上涨的股票相似。</blockquote></p><p>While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种猜测经常被归咎于美联储，但很难划清界限。财政刺激则不然。金融研究公司Bianco Research的负责人Jim Bianco表示，随着财政部发放1400美元的刺激支票，3月份流入交易所交易基金和共同基金的资金激增。“你用支票做的第一件事就是将其存入你的账户，到2021年，这就是你的经纪账户，”比安科先生说。</blockquote></p><p><b>Facing the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>面向未来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>It’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.</p><p><blockquote>无法预测这一切将如何结束，甚至是否会结束。事实并非如此：高价股票最终可能会赚取必要的利润来证明当今的估值是合理的，尤其是在经济目前处于领先地位的情况下。与此同时，随着利润令人失望或竞争的出现，更极端的投机领域可能会在自身压力下崩溃。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.</p><p><blockquote>比特币曾威胁要取代美元；现在，许多竞争对手也声称要做同样的事情。特斯拉公司曾经是你唯一可以购买来押注电动汽车的股票；现在有蔚来、NikolaCorp.和FiskerInc.，更不用说大众汽车公司和通用汽车公司等老牌制造商正在推出越来越多的电动车型。</blockquote></p><p>But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.</p><p><blockquote>但资产全面下跌可能涉及某种宏观经济事件，例如经济衰退、金融危机或通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上周的报告称，该病毒仍然是对经济乃至金融体系的最大威胁。4月份的就业令人失望提醒人们经济前景仍然多么不稳定。尽管如此，随着病毒的消退，经济衰退现在似乎不太可能发生。不能排除与某种隐藏的脆弱性相关的金融危机。尽管如此，银行拥有如此多的资本，而抵押贷款承销又如此紧张，以至于类似于2007-09年始于抵押贷款违约的金融危机似乎很遥远。如果垃圾债券、加密货币或科技股主要是用借来的钱购买的，其价值暴跌可能会引发一波强制抛售、破产和潜在的危机。但这似乎并没有发生。Archegos Capital Management最近因衍生品股票投资逆转而倒闭，给其贷方造成了损失。但这并没有威胁到他们的生存，也没有引发对处境相似的公司的蔓延。</blockquote></p><p>“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”</p><p><blockquote>“第二个阿尔奇戈斯在哪里？”比安科先生说。“还没有。”</blockquote></p><p>That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>这就剩下通货膨胀了。由于半导体、木材和工人的短缺都给价格和成本带来了上行压力，对通胀的担忧现在很普遍。大多数预测者和美联储认为，一旦经济重新开放和正常支出模式恢复，这些压力将会缓解。尽管如此，常规债券收益率和通胀指数债券收益率之间的差异表明，投资者预计未来几年的通胀率平均约为2.5%。这很难是20世纪70年代的重演，也符合美联储长期平均通胀率2%的新目标。尽管如此，这将明显打破过去十年低于2%的区间。</blockquote></p><p>Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw &amp; Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.</p><p><blockquote>通胀略高将导致美联储将短期利率也略高，这不一定会损害股票估值。更令人担忧的是：对股票价值至关重要的长期债券收益率可能会大幅上升。自20世纪90年代末以来，债券和股票价格往往朝着相反的方向波动。这是因为当通胀不是问题时，经济冲击往往会压低债券收益率（与价格走势相反）和股票价格。因此，债券充当了抵御股票损失的保险政策，投资者愿意接受较低的收益率。如果通货膨胀再次成为一个问题，那么债券就会失去保险价值，其收益率就会上升。前美联储经济学家、现就职于对冲基金D.E.的布莱恩·萨克(Brian Sack)表示，近几个月来，过去几十年大部分时间里存在的股债相关性开始消失。肖公司。他将此部分归因于通胀担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，通货膨胀主导了金融领域，这导致投资者对资产定价，就好像通货膨胀再也不会产生这种影响一样。他们可能是对的。但如果史无前例的货币和财政刺激组合成功地使经济摆脱了过去十年的模式，这种自满可能会付出相当大的代价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122089368","content_text":"To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”‘A bit frothy’The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.Running of the bullsThis injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.Facing the futureIt’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104176815,"gmtCreate":1620368689637,"gmtModify":1634205710312,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still undervalued? So expensive already... Like if you agree&nbsp;","listText":"Still undervalued? So expensive already... Like if you agree&nbsp;","text":"Still undervalued? So expensive already... Like if you agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104176815","repostId":"1157328258","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157328258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620360165,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157328258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157328258","media":"Seeking alpha","summary":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entere","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于DCF的亚马逊股价目标显示30%的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上个季度的业绩对亚马逊（AMZN）进行了全面的分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊上个季度的增长是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”部分的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了接近线性的趋势。现在，它已经成为指数级增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场——这里的加速仍然存在，上个季度的结果好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）部门也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘Amazon Web Services’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的结果来看，有逐渐回归之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的营收也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键细分市场</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去10年中，亚马逊的资本化与其收入呈定性线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本化的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本的增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，首先，这个模型表明公司当前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一个模块中，我根据收入对亚马逊的均衡价格进行了建模。值得注意的是，如果我们用同样的方法使用倍数对公司进行比较估值，我们就会失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数来成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整后的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：寻求Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我也从分析师对公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，在终端年将营业利润率逐步提高到8%是一个非常现实的情况。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>以下是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚马逊股票基于DCF的目标价为4,280美元，上涨空间为29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段的事实并不意味着其市值不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本化和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的DCF模型分析师表示低估了30%。今年年初，类似的模型显示估值被低估了20%。</li><li>当你看亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题的公司更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-07 12:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于DCF的亚马逊股价目标显示30%的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上个季度的业绩对亚马逊（AMZN）进行了全面的分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊上个季度的增长是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”部分的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了接近线性的趋势。现在，它已经成为指数级增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场——这里的加速仍然存在，上个季度的结果好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）部门也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘Amazon Web Services’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的结果来看，有逐渐回归之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的营收也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键细分市场</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去10年中，亚马逊的资本化与其收入呈定性线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本化的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本的增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，首先，这个模型表明公司当前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一个模块中，我根据收入对亚马逊的均衡价格进行了建模。值得注意的是，如果我们用同样的方法使用倍数对公司进行比较估值，我们就会失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数来成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整后的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：寻求Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我也从分析师对公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，在终端年将营业利润率逐步提高到8%是一个非常现实的情况。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>以下是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚马逊股票基于DCF的目标价为4,280美元，上涨空间为29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段的事实并不意味着其市值不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本化和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的DCF模型分析师表示低估了30%。今年年初，类似的模型显示估值被低估了20%。</li><li>当你看亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题的公司更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company\">Seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157328258","content_text":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.#1 Price vs. GrowthFirst of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comGeographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comSo, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growthin all key segments. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThere is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comBased on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is alreadybelow the balanced level. And secondly, it assumes a25% growthin capitalization in the next four quarters.#2 Comparative ValuationIn the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.#3 Discounted Cash Flow ModelWhen predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:Source: Seeking Alpha ProWhen predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:Source: AuthorSome explanations:In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.Here is the model itself:(In high resolution)Source: AuthorThe DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.Final thoughtsAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company isundervalued.Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company ismuch cheaperthan the market.DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102676216,"gmtCreate":1620213011835,"gmtModify":1634206959002,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SNL","listText":"SNL","text":"SNL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102676216","repostId":"1115203133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115203133","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620178775,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115203133?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-05 09:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why is dogecoin’s price spiking? The crypto has surged 11,000% in 2021<blockquote>狗狗币价格为何飙升？2021年加密货币飙升11,000%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115203133","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"Every dog has its day…but a whole year?Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image ","content":"<p>Every dog has its day…but a whole year?</p><p><blockquote>每只狗都有它的一天…但是一整年呢？</blockquote></p><p>Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image of a Shiba Inu dog, has been enjoying one of the best years for cryptocurrency in recent memory, boasting year-to-date gains of more than 11,000% and putting it in the top 10 of the most highly valued digital assets this year.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，狗狗币（与柴犬图像相关的模因加密货币）一直是近年来加密货币最好的一年，今年迄今的涨幅超过11,000%，并跻身前10名今年最有价值的数字资产。</blockquote></p><p>At last check, dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%was changing hands at 54 cents, up more than 23% in the past 24 hours and up around 11,210% so far in 2021, according to CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinDesk的数据，根据上次检查，dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%的易手价格为54美分，过去24小时内上涨了23%以上，2021年迄今为止上涨了约11,210%。</blockquote></p><p>That parabolic rise is drawing both applause and apprehension as its supporters aim to drive the parody coin to a value near $1, with critics warning that the asset bears all the hallmarks of an asset bubble that is bound to pop and leave carnage in its wake.</p><p><blockquote>这种抛物线式上涨既引起了掌声，也引起了担忧，因为其支持者的目标是将这枚模仿硬币的价值推至接近1美元，批评者警告说，该资产具有资产泡沫的所有特征，资产泡沫必然会破裂并留下大屠杀。</blockquote></p><p>Only, don’t tell that to those cheerleading the crypto, or risk being met with this common refrain: “enjoy being poor.”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7201d3eb982c0d5d636bf8ff4a1ca7\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So why is dogecoin, pronounced “dōj-coin,”&nbsp;on such a monumental tear that has outstripped crypto considered more serious representatives of the age of digital assets and blockchain? Here are a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>只是，不要告诉那些为加密货币欢呼的人，否则就有可能遇到这种常见的重复：“享受贫穷。”那么，为什么狗狗币（发音为“dōj-coin”）会遭受如此巨大的损失，以至于超过了被认为是数字资产和区块链时代更严肃代表的加密货币？以下是一些原因：</blockquote></p><p>Its biggest booster set to guest host ‘SNL’</p><p><blockquote>其最大的助推器将是客座主持人“SNL”</blockquote></p><p>Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, will host “Saturday Night Live” this weekend, which has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers&nbsp;for the technologist. He has become one of the most prominent and vocal champions of dogecoin this year and some speculate that he could do something to promote doge.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司和SpaceX的首席执行官Elon Musk将于本周末主持“周六夜现场”，这已经为这位技术专家赢得了欢呼和嘲笑。他已经成为今年dogecoin最著名和最直言不讳的拥护者之一，一些人猜测他可以做些什么来推广doge。</blockquote></p><p>Musk did refer to himself as the “dogefather” in one recent tweet ahead of his “Saturday Night Live” gig.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在《周六夜现场》演出前的一条推文中确实称自己为“狗爸爸”。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a1a1602240507ad985c5efcb2571f5\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"177\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Brokerages trade dogecoin</p><p><blockquote>券商交易狗狗币</blockquote></p><p>A number of new venues have announced that they will trade dogecoin on their exchanges in recent days and weeks.</p><p><blockquote>一些新的场所已经宣布，他们将在最近几天和几周内在他们的交易所交易狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto exchange Geminion Tuesdayannounced trading and custody support for the coin. Trading platform&nbsp;eToro also made dogecoin&nbsp;available for trading on its platform.Webullallowed its users to purchase dogecoin back on April 20.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所Geminion周二宣布支持该硬币的交易和托管。交易平台eToro也在其平台上提供狗狗币交易。Webull于4月20日允许其用户重新购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>FOMO</p><p><blockquote>FOMO</blockquote></p><p>Fear of missing out also is said to be behind the surge. Some crypto participants speculate that the rise in dogecoin is being supported by retail traders who see the parody coin as more accessible investment (or trade) than, say, bitcoinBTCUSD,-0.16%,which was changing hands at $54,000, at last check on CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>据说，对错过的恐惧也是激增的原因。一些加密货币参与者推测，狗狗币的上涨得到了散户交易者的支持，他们认为这种模仿币比比特币BTCUSD(-0.16%)更容易获得投资（或交易），比特币BTCUSD(-0.16%)在CoinDesk上最后一次检查时易手价格为54,000美元。</blockquote></p><p>“Dogecoin&nbsp;is surging because many cryptocurrency traders do not want to miss out on any buzz that stems from Elon Musk’s hosting of ‘Saturday Night Live,’” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a daily note.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)在每日报告中写道：“狗狗币正在飙升，因为许多加密货币交易者不想错过埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)主持《周六夜现场》(Saturday Night Live)引发的任何轰动。”</blockquote></p><p>Gains in traditional assets also might seem more pedestrian. By comparison, gold futuresGC00,0.17%are down 6% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.06%and the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-0.67%are up by at least 10% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-1.88%has gained over 5%.</p><p><blockquote>传统资产的收益也可能看起来更加平淡无奇。相比之下，黄金期货GC00, 0.17%今年迄今已下跌6%，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA,+0.06%和标普500指数SPX,-0.67%在2021年至少上涨10%，而纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-1.88%涨幅超过5%。</blockquote></p><p>Accessibility</p><p><blockquote>可访问性</blockquote></p><p>Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky, CEO of&nbsp;Allnodes, via an emailed message, said he viewed support from Musk and fellow billionaire Mark Cuban as central to the bull thesis for dogecoin, but also said that some may perceive the crypto as more accessible compared against bitcoin, which hit a recent peak above $60,000 before cooling.</p><p><blockquote>Allnodes首席执行官康斯坦丁·博伊科-罗曼诺夫斯基(Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky)通过电子邮件表示，他认为马斯克和亿万富翁马克·库班(Mark Cuban)的支持是狗狗币牛市论点的核心，但也表示，有些人可能认为与比特币相比，这种加密货币更容易使用，最近在冷却之前触及60,000美元以上的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>“It appeals more to the general public because it costs so little. $60,000 for a single bitcoin may be intimidating to some. In a way, doge then is more like a USD but in a digital form,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“它对公众更有吸引力，因为它的成本很低。一张比特币6万美元可能会让一些人感到害怕。在某种程度上，doge更像是一种美元，但以数字形式，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p>Bubbles &amp; manias</p><p><blockquote>泡沫与狂热</blockquote></p><p>Moya wrote that the dogecoin bubble should have “popped by now, but institutional interest is trying to take advantage of this momentum and that could support another push higher.”</p><p><blockquote>莫亚写道，狗狗币泡沫“现在应该已经破裂，但机构兴趣正试图利用这一势头，这可能会支持进一步推高。”</blockquote></p><p>Many skeptics warn that dogecoin could leave a lot of newbie investors hemorrhaging losses if they wade into the asset imprudently.</p><p><blockquote>许多怀疑论者警告说，如果狗狗币不谨慎地涉足该资产，可能会给许多新手投资者带来巨大损失。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why is dogecoin’s price spiking? The crypto has surged 11,000% in 2021<blockquote>狗狗币价格为何飙升？2021年加密货币飙升11,000%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy is dogecoin’s price spiking? The crypto has surged 11,000% in 2021<blockquote>狗狗币价格为何飙升？2021年加密货币飙升11,000%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market Wacth</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-05 09:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Every dog has its day…but a whole year?</p><p><blockquote>每只狗都有它的一天…但是一整年呢？</blockquote></p><p>Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image of a Shiba Inu dog, has been enjoying one of the best years for cryptocurrency in recent memory, boasting year-to-date gains of more than 11,000% and putting it in the top 10 of the most highly valued digital assets this year.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，狗狗币（与柴犬图像相关的模因加密货币）一直是近年来加密货币最好的一年，今年迄今的涨幅超过11,000%，并跻身前10名今年最有价值的数字资产。</blockquote></p><p>At last check, dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%was changing hands at 54 cents, up more than 23% in the past 24 hours and up around 11,210% so far in 2021, according to CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinDesk的数据，根据上次检查，dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%的易手价格为54美分，过去24小时内上涨了23%以上，2021年迄今为止上涨了约11,210%。</blockquote></p><p>That parabolic rise is drawing both applause and apprehension as its supporters aim to drive the parody coin to a value near $1, with critics warning that the asset bears all the hallmarks of an asset bubble that is bound to pop and leave carnage in its wake.</p><p><blockquote>这种抛物线式上涨既引起了掌声，也引起了担忧，因为其支持者的目标是将这枚模仿硬币的价值推至接近1美元，批评者警告说，该资产具有资产泡沫的所有特征，资产泡沫必然会破裂并留下大屠杀。</blockquote></p><p>Only, don’t tell that to those cheerleading the crypto, or risk being met with this common refrain: “enjoy being poor.”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7201d3eb982c0d5d636bf8ff4a1ca7\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So why is dogecoin, pronounced “dōj-coin,”&nbsp;on such a monumental tear that has outstripped crypto considered more serious representatives of the age of digital assets and blockchain? Here are a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>只是，不要告诉那些为加密货币欢呼的人，否则就有可能遇到这种常见的重复：“享受贫穷。”那么，为什么狗狗币（发音为“dōj-coin”）会遭受如此巨大的损失，以至于超过了被认为是数字资产和区块链时代更严肃代表的加密货币？以下是一些原因：</blockquote></p><p>Its biggest booster set to guest host ‘SNL’</p><p><blockquote>其最大的助推器将是客座主持人“SNL”</blockquote></p><p>Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, will host “Saturday Night Live” this weekend, which has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers&nbsp;for the technologist. He has become one of the most prominent and vocal champions of dogecoin this year and some speculate that he could do something to promote doge.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司和SpaceX的首席执行官Elon Musk将于本周末主持“周六夜现场”，这已经为这位技术专家赢得了欢呼和嘲笑。他已经成为今年dogecoin最著名和最直言不讳的拥护者之一，一些人猜测他可以做些什么来推广doge。</blockquote></p><p>Musk did refer to himself as the “dogefather” in one recent tweet ahead of his “Saturday Night Live” gig.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在《周六夜现场》演出前的一条推文中确实称自己为“狗爸爸”。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a1a1602240507ad985c5efcb2571f5\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"177\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Brokerages trade dogecoin</p><p><blockquote>券商交易狗狗币</blockquote></p><p>A number of new venues have announced that they will trade dogecoin on their exchanges in recent days and weeks.</p><p><blockquote>一些新的场所已经宣布，他们将在最近几天和几周内在他们的交易所交易狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto exchange Geminion Tuesdayannounced trading and custody support for the coin. Trading platform&nbsp;eToro also made dogecoin&nbsp;available for trading on its platform.Webullallowed its users to purchase dogecoin back on April 20.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所Geminion周二宣布支持该硬币的交易和托管。交易平台eToro也在其平台上提供狗狗币交易。Webull于4月20日允许其用户重新购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>FOMO</p><p><blockquote>FOMO</blockquote></p><p>Fear of missing out also is said to be behind the surge. Some crypto participants speculate that the rise in dogecoin is being supported by retail traders who see the parody coin as more accessible investment (or trade) than, say, bitcoinBTCUSD,-0.16%,which was changing hands at $54,000, at last check on CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>据说，对错过的恐惧也是激增的原因。一些加密货币参与者推测，狗狗币的上涨得到了散户交易者的支持，他们认为这种模仿币比比特币BTCUSD(-0.16%)更容易获得投资（或交易），比特币BTCUSD(-0.16%)在CoinDesk上最后一次检查时易手价格为54,000美元。</blockquote></p><p>“Dogecoin&nbsp;is surging because many cryptocurrency traders do not want to miss out on any buzz that stems from Elon Musk’s hosting of ‘Saturday Night Live,’” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a daily note.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)在每日报告中写道：“狗狗币正在飙升，因为许多加密货币交易者不想错过埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)主持《周六夜现场》(Saturday Night Live)引发的任何轰动。”</blockquote></p><p>Gains in traditional assets also might seem more pedestrian. By comparison, gold futuresGC00,0.17%are down 6% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.06%and the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-0.67%are up by at least 10% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-1.88%has gained over 5%.</p><p><blockquote>传统资产的收益也可能看起来更加平淡无奇。相比之下，黄金期货GC00, 0.17%今年迄今已下跌6%，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA,+0.06%和标普500指数SPX,-0.67%在2021年至少上涨10%，而纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-1.88%涨幅超过5%。</blockquote></p><p>Accessibility</p><p><blockquote>可访问性</blockquote></p><p>Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky, CEO of&nbsp;Allnodes, via an emailed message, said he viewed support from Musk and fellow billionaire Mark Cuban as central to the bull thesis for dogecoin, but also said that some may perceive the crypto as more accessible compared against bitcoin, which hit a recent peak above $60,000 before cooling.</p><p><blockquote>Allnodes首席执行官康斯坦丁·博伊科-罗曼诺夫斯基(Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky)通过电子邮件表示，他认为马斯克和亿万富翁马克·库班(Mark Cuban)的支持是狗狗币牛市论点的核心，但也表示，有些人可能认为与比特币相比，这种加密货币更容易使用，最近在冷却之前触及60,000美元以上的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>“It appeals more to the general public because it costs so little. $60,000 for a single bitcoin may be intimidating to some. In a way, doge then is more like a USD but in a digital form,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“它对公众更有吸引力，因为它的成本很低。一张比特币6万美元可能会让一些人感到害怕。在某种程度上，doge更像是一种美元，但以数字形式，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p>Bubbles &amp; manias</p><p><blockquote>泡沫与狂热</blockquote></p><p>Moya wrote that the dogecoin bubble should have “popped by now, but institutional interest is trying to take advantage of this momentum and that could support another push higher.”</p><p><blockquote>莫亚写道，狗狗币泡沫“现在应该已经破裂，但机构兴趣正试图利用这一势头，这可能会支持进一步推高。”</blockquote></p><p>Many skeptics warn that dogecoin could leave a lot of newbie investors hemorrhaging losses if they wade into the asset imprudently.</p><p><blockquote>许多怀疑论者警告说，如果狗狗币不谨慎地涉足该资产，可能会给许多新手投资者带来巨大损失。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-is-dogecoins-price-spiking-the-crypto-has-surged-11-000-in-2021-11620151738?mod=home-page\">Market Wacth</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-is-dogecoins-price-spiking-the-crypto-has-surged-11-000-in-2021-11620151738?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115203133","content_text":"Every dog has its day…but a whole year?Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image of a Shiba Inu dog, has been enjoying one of the best years for cryptocurrency in recent memory, boasting year-to-date gains of more than 11,000% and putting it in the top 10 of the most highly valued digital assets this year.At last check, dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%was changing hands at 54 cents, up more than 23% in the past 24 hours and up around 11,210% so far in 2021, according to CoinDesk.That parabolic rise is drawing both applause and apprehension as its supporters aim to drive the parody coin to a value near $1, with critics warning that the asset bears all the hallmarks of an asset bubble that is bound to pop and leave carnage in its wake.Only, don’t tell that to those cheerleading the crypto, or risk being met with this common refrain: “enjoy being poor.”So why is dogecoin, pronounced “dōj-coin,” on such a monumental tear that has outstripped crypto considered more serious representatives of the age of digital assets and blockchain? Here are a few reasons:Its biggest booster set to guest host ‘SNL’Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, will host “Saturday Night Live” this weekend, which has already drawn cheers and jeers for the technologist. He has become one of the most prominent and vocal champions of dogecoin this year and some speculate that he could do something to promote doge.Musk did refer to himself as the “dogefather” in one recent tweet ahead of his “Saturday Night Live” gig.Brokerages trade dogecoinA number of new venues have announced that they will trade dogecoin on their exchanges in recent days and weeks.Crypto exchange Geminion Tuesdayannounced trading and custody support for the coin. Trading platform eToro also made dogecoin available for trading on its platform.Webullallowed its users to purchase dogecoin back on April 20.FOMOFear of missing out also is said to be behind the surge. Some crypto participants speculate that the rise in dogecoin is being supported by retail traders who see the parody coin as more accessible investment (or trade) than, say, bitcoinBTCUSD,-0.16%,which was changing hands at $54,000, at last check on CoinDesk.“Dogecoin is surging because many cryptocurrency traders do not want to miss out on any buzz that stems from Elon Musk’s hosting of ‘Saturday Night Live,’” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a daily note.Gains in traditional assets also might seem more pedestrian. By comparison, gold futuresGC00,0.17%are down 6% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.06%and the S&P 500 indexSPX,-0.67%are up by at least 10% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-1.88%has gained over 5%.AccessibilityKonstantin Boyko-Romanovsky, CEO of Allnodes, via an emailed message, said he viewed support from Musk and fellow billionaire Mark Cuban as central to the bull thesis for dogecoin, but also said that some may perceive the crypto as more accessible compared against bitcoin, which hit a recent peak above $60,000 before cooling.“It appeals more to the general public because it costs so little. $60,000 for a single bitcoin may be intimidating to some. In a way, doge then is more like a USD but in a digital form,” he wrote.Bubbles & maniasMoya wrote that the dogecoin bubble should have “popped by now, but institutional interest is trying to take advantage of this momentum and that could support another push higher.”Many skeptics warn that dogecoin could leave a lot of newbie investors hemorrhaging losses if they wade into the asset imprudently.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106861004,"gmtCreate":1620102357708,"gmtModify":1634207790086,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Big split.&nbsp;","listText":"Big split.&nbsp;","text":"Big split.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106861004","repostId":"1147234999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108694396,"gmtCreate":1620016624815,"gmtModify":1634208489949,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Watch list&nbsp;","listText":"Watch list&nbsp;","text":"Watch list","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108694396","repostId":"1135819410","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135819410","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619999342,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135819410?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-03 07:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135819410","media":"Barrons","summary":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their fi","content":"<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p><blockquote>又是财报密集的一周，130家标普500公司即将发布第一季度业绩。雅诗兰黛是周一的亮点之一，周二情况有所好转：动视暴雪、CVS Health、杜邦、辉瑞和T-Mobile US均报告。</blockquote></p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、General Motors、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies将发布财报。百威英博、Moderna、再生元制药、Square和ViacomCBS将于周四发布。最后，Cigna将于周五结束这一周。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p><blockquote>在本周的经济日历上，主要事件将是周五的就业。美国劳工统计局预计将报告4月份非农就业人数增加97.5万人，失业率为5.8%，低于一个月前的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他数据包括供应管理协会周一公布的4月份制造业采购经理人指数和周三公布的服务业采购经理人指数。</blockquote></p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>企业产品合作伙伴和雅诗兰黛发布收益。</blockquote></p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>默克和Public Storage举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告三月份建筑支出数据。市场普遍预计建筑支出环比增长0.6%，经季节调整后的年率为1.53万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应研究所</b>管理层发布四月份制造业采购经理人指数。经济学家预测为65，与3月份的数据大致持平。3月份的读数是该指数自1983年12月以来的最高值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二5/4</b></blockquote></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪、康菲石油公司、康明斯、CVS Health、Dominion Energy、杜邦、伊顿、辉瑞、Sysco和T-Mobile US报告季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司召开电话会议讨论其可持续发展计划。</blockquote></p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><blockquote>联合太平洋公司举办2021年虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三5/5</b></blockquote></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、BorgWarner、Emerson Electric、General Motors、Hilton Worldwide Holdings、Novo Nordisk、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies发布财报。</blockquote></p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP释放</b>四月份全国就业报告。继3月份增加517,000个工作岗位后，预计私营部门就业岗位将增加762,500个。</blockquote></p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><blockquote><b>ISM版本</b>4月份服务业PMI。普遍的看涨期权为64.6，比3月份的数据高出一个百分点。3月份的读数是该指数的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四5/6</b></blockquote></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>百威英博、Becton Dickinson、Expedia Group、富达国家信息服务公司、家乐氏、林德、大都会人寿、Moderna、再生元制药、Square、ViacomCBS和Zoetishold在评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至5月1日当周首次申请失业救济人数。4月份平均每周初请失业金人数为611,750人，处于去年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计数据报告了第一季度的劳动力成本和生产率。预计经季节调整后的生产率年增长率为2.2%，而2020年第四季度为下降4.2%。单位劳动力成本在此前上涨6%后预计将下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五5/7</b></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布四月份就业报告。经济学家预测非农就业人数将增加975,000人。失业率预计将从6%小幅降至5.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p><p><blockquote>信诺和<b>自由媒体</b>报告收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-03 07:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p><blockquote>又是财报密集的一周，130家标普500公司即将发布第一季度业绩。雅诗兰黛是周一的亮点之一，周二情况有所好转：动视暴雪、CVS Health、杜邦、辉瑞和T-Mobile US均报告。</blockquote></p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、General Motors、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies将发布财报。百威英博、Moderna、再生元制药、Square和ViacomCBS将于周四发布。最后，Cigna将于周五结束这一周。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p><blockquote>在本周的经济日历上，主要事件将是周五的就业。美国劳工统计局预计将报告4月份非农就业人数增加97.5万人，失业率为5.8%，低于一个月前的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他数据包括供应管理协会周一公布的4月份制造业采购经理人指数和周三公布的服务业采购经理人指数。</blockquote></p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>企业产品合作伙伴和雅诗兰黛发布收益。</blockquote></p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>默克和Public Storage举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告三月份建筑支出数据。市场普遍预计建筑支出环比增长0.6%，经季节调整后的年率为1.53万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应研究所</b>管理层发布四月份制造业采购经理人指数。经济学家预测为65，与3月份的数据大致持平。3月份的读数是该指数自1983年12月以来的最高值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二5/4</b></blockquote></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪、康菲石油公司、康明斯、CVS Health、Dominion Energy、杜邦、伊顿、辉瑞、Sysco和T-Mobile US报告季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司召开电话会议讨论其可持续发展计划。</blockquote></p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><blockquote>联合太平洋公司举办2021年虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三5/5</b></blockquote></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、BorgWarner、Emerson Electric、General Motors、Hilton Worldwide Holdings、Novo Nordisk、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies发布财报。</blockquote></p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP释放</b>四月份全国就业报告。继3月份增加517,000个工作岗位后，预计私营部门就业岗位将增加762,500个。</blockquote></p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><blockquote><b>ISM版本</b>4月份服务业PMI。普遍的看涨期权为64.6，比3月份的数据高出一个百分点。3月份的读数是该指数的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四5/6</b></blockquote></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>百威英博、Becton Dickinson、Expedia Group、富达国家信息服务公司、家乐氏、林德、大都会人寿、Moderna、再生元制药、Square、ViacomCBS和Zoetishold在评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至5月1日当周首次申请失业救济人数。4月份平均每周初请失业金人数为611,750人，处于去年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计数据报告了第一季度的劳动力成本和生产率。预计经季节调整后的生产率年增长率为2.2%，而2020年第四季度为下降4.2%。单位劳动力成本在此前上涨6%后预计将下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五5/7</b></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布四月份就业报告。经济学家预测非农就业人数将增加975,000人。失业率预计将从6%小幅降至5.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p><p><blockquote>信诺和<b>自由媒体</b>报告收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞","GM":"通用汽车",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UBER":"优步","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc",".DJI":"道琼斯","PYPL":"PayPal",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135819410","content_text":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday: Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.On Wednesday, Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings. Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on Friday.On the economic calendar this week, the main event will jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its Services equivalent on Wednesday.Enterprise Products Partners and Estée Lauder release earnings.Merck and Public Storage hold virtual investor days.The Census Bureau reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.Tuesday 5/4Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.Eli Lilly holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.Union Pacific holds its 2021 virtual investor day.Wednesday 5/5Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.ADP releases its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.ISM releases its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.Thursday 5/6Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.Friday 5/7The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.Cigna and Liberty Media report earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TMUS":0.9,"UBER":0.9,"GM":0.9,"PYPL":0.9,"VIACP":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101417427,"gmtCreate":1619931114969,"gmtModify":1634209020814,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Smart man.&nbsp;","listText":"Smart man.&nbsp;","text":"Smart man.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101417427","repostId":"1103106179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101391036,"gmtCreate":1619842553025,"gmtModify":1634209524551,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Anti trust laws protect against monopoly&nbsp;","listText":"Anti trust laws protect against monopoly&nbsp;","text":"Anti trust laws protect against monopoly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101391036","repostId":"1142063705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103225552,"gmtCreate":1619789562176,"gmtModify":1634209930090,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Amaaaazon!&nbsp;","listText":"Amaaaazon!&nbsp;","text":"Amaaaazon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103225552","repostId":"1182317990","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109232961,"gmtCreate":1619698730053,"gmtModify":1634210644689,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Amazon!&nbsp;","listText":"Amazon!&nbsp;","text":"Amazon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109232961","repostId":"1169827391","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169827391","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619664680,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169827391?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-29 10:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Earnings Will Be Fantastic. What That Means for the Stock.<blockquote>亚马逊的盈利将会非常出色。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169827391","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stock in Amazon.com has barely budged since the e-commerce and cloud- computing giant reported stell","content":"<p>Stock in Amazon.com has barely budged since the e-commerce and cloud- computing giant reported stellar fourth-quarter results that were overshadowed by the news that CEO Jeff Bezos will shift into the role of&nbsp; executive chairman, with Amazon Web Services chief Andy Jassy taking over the top slot.</p><p><blockquote>自从这家电子商务和云计算巨头公布了出色的第四季度业绩以来，亚马逊的股价几乎没有变化，但首席执行官杰夫·贝索斯(Jeff Bezos)将出任执行董事长、亚马逊网络服务(Amazon Web Services)首席执行官安迪·贾西(Andy Jassy)接任执行董事长的消息掩盖了这一消息。顶部插槽。</blockquote></p><p> The combination of that pending change, along with uncertainty over how the reopening of the economy will affect shopping behavior, has some investors a little uneasy about the stock’s near-term prospects.</p><p><blockquote>这种即将发生的变化，加上经济重新开放将如何影响购物行为的不确定性，让一些投资者对该股的近期前景感到有点不安。</blockquote></p><p> They will get a fresh look at the situation after the close of trading on Thursday, when Amazon (ticker: AMZN) posts its results for the March quarter. Amazon has told investors to expect revenue of $100 billion to $106 billion, with operating income of between $3 billion and $6.5 billion, and about $2 billion in costs related to Covid-19. The Wall Street consensus calls for revenue of $104.5 billion, with profits of $9.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>周四收盘后，亚马逊（股票代码：AMZN）将公布三月份季度业绩，他们将重新审视形势。亚马逊曾告诉投资者，预计营收为1000亿至1060亿美元，营业收入在30亿至65亿美元之间，与Covid-19相关的成本约为20亿美元。华尔街一致认为评级营收为1045亿美元，每股利润为9.54美元。</blockquote></p><p> The Street also clearly expects the quarter’s results to show continued strength in e-commerce. According to FactSet, Wall Street analysts expect online-stores revenue of $51.5 billion, up 41% from a year ago, with third-party sales of $21.7 billion, up 50%. Subscription revenues are expected to be $7.3 billion, up 32%, while revenue from physical stores is expected to be $4.3 billion, down 8%. AWS revenues are projected at $13.2 billion, up 29%.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街还明确预计本季度业绩将显示电子商务的持续强劲。根据FactSet的数据，华尔街分析师预计在线商店收入为515亿美元，同比增长41%，第三方销售额为217亿美元，增长50%。订阅收入预计为73亿美元，增长32%，而实体店收入预计为43亿美元，下降8%。AWS收入预计为132亿美元，增长29%。</blockquote></p><p> One open question is what forecasts the company will make for the June quarter as parts of the country begin to return to more normal economic activity. The Street is projecting June quarter revenue of $108.7 billion and profits of $10.81 a share.</p><p><blockquote>一个悬而未决的问题是，随着该国部分地区开始恢复更正常的经济活动，该公司将对六月季度做出什么预测。华尔街预计6月份季度营收为1087亿美元，每股利润为10.81美元。</blockquote></p><p> In an earnings preview note, Truist analyst Youssef Squali&nbsp;reiterated a Buy rating on the stock and a target of $3,750 for the share price. The stock closed Tuesday at $3,417.43, up 4.9% year to date.</p><p><blockquote>在财报预览报告中，Truist分析师Youssef Squali重申了对该股的买入评级，并将股价目标定为3,750美元。该股周二收于3,417.43美元，今年迄今上涨4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> He expects revenue to come in at the high end of the range Amazon predicted, saying e-commerce demand has remained strong both in the U.S. and internationally, given that the pandemic has been slow to subside. Conversations with people in the industry and strong earning disclosed last week by Snap bode well for Amazon’s ad business, which is lumped into a category called “other,” he wrote. He also thinks the market continues to underestimate the long-term growth potential of the dominance of the company’s two key businesses—e-commerce and AWS—as well as the company’s “emerging leadership in online advertising.”</p><p><blockquote>他预计收入将达到亚马逊预测范围的高端，并表示鉴于疫情缓慢消退，美国和国际上的电子商务需求仍然强劲。他写道，与业内人士的对话以及Snap上周披露的强劲盈利对亚马逊的广告业务来说是个好兆头，亚马逊的广告业务被归入“其他”类别。他还认为，市场继续低估该公司两项关键业务——电子商务和AWS——的主导地位的长期增长潜力，以及该公司“在在线广告领域新兴的领导地位”。</blockquote></p><p> Stifel analyst Scott Devitt&nbsp;is similarly bullish, repeating a Buy rating and $4,000 target price. He sees 40% top-line growth, a little ahead of the Street consensus. “The focus on the report will largely center on the outlook as Amazon laps the difficult prior year compares from the onset of the pandemic,” he wrote in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>Stifel分析师Scott Devitt同样看好，重申买入评级和4,000美元的目标价。他预计营收将增长40%，略高于华尔街共识。他在一份研究报告中写道：“与大流行爆发以来的前一年相比，亚马逊经历了困难的一年，该报告的焦点将主要集中在前景上。”</blockquote></p><p> “Growth in a post-Covid environment remains largely uncertain for Amazon and across the e-commerce landscape,” Devitt said. “Our [June quarter] revenue estimates are ahead of consensus as we see tailwinds stemming from strong growth in new Prime members and diversification across geographies and categories supporting the retail business as economies recover.” He also said AWS and the ad business are well positioned for a recovery.</p><p><blockquote>德维特表示：“对于亚马逊和整个电子商务领域来说，后疫情环境中的增长在很大程度上仍然存在不确定性。”“我们的[六月季度]收入预期领先于共识，因为我们看到随着经济复苏，新Prime会员的强劲增长以及跨地区和类别的多元化为零售业务提供了支持。”他还表示，AWS和广告业务已做好复苏的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter likewise maintained an Outperform rating and $4,000 target. He thinks the company will post more revenue and operating income than it had forecast, an outperformance resulting from market-share gains in e-commerce.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Michael Pachter同样维持跑赢大盘评级和4,000美元的目标。他认为该公司的收入和营业收入将超出预期，这是电子商务市场份额增长带来的优异表现。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that a more stable economy, continued imposition of shelter-in-place orders in many of Amazon’s markets, continued expansion into the very large grocery segment, and outstanding execution likely drove strong results in Q1,” he said. “In addition, Amazon Pharmacy (launched February 2) represents a U.S. [addressable market] of around $600 billion, so any market share gains could provide further upside.”</p><p><blockquote>他表示：“我们认为，经济更加稳定、亚马逊许多市场继续实施就地避难订单、向超大型杂货领域的持续扩张以及出色的执行力可能会推动第一季度的强劲业绩。”“此外，亚马逊药房（2月2日推出）代表了约6000亿美元的美国[潜在市场]，因此任何市场份额的增长都可能提供进一步的上涨空间。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Earnings Will Be Fantastic. What That Means for the Stock.<blockquote>亚马逊的盈利将会非常出色。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Earnings Will Be Fantastic. What That Means for the Stock.<blockquote>亚马逊的盈利将会非常出色。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 10:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stock in Amazon.com has barely budged since the e-commerce and cloud- computing giant reported stellar fourth-quarter results that were overshadowed by the news that CEO Jeff Bezos will shift into the role of&nbsp; executive chairman, with Amazon Web Services chief Andy Jassy taking over the top slot.</p><p><blockquote>自从这家电子商务和云计算巨头公布了出色的第四季度业绩以来，亚马逊的股价几乎没有变化，但首席执行官杰夫·贝索斯(Jeff Bezos)将出任执行董事长、亚马逊网络服务(Amazon Web Services)首席执行官安迪·贾西(Andy Jassy)接任执行董事长的消息掩盖了这一消息。顶部插槽。</blockquote></p><p> The combination of that pending change, along with uncertainty over how the reopening of the economy will affect shopping behavior, has some investors a little uneasy about the stock’s near-term prospects.</p><p><blockquote>这种即将发生的变化，加上经济重新开放将如何影响购物行为的不确定性，让一些投资者对该股的近期前景感到有点不安。</blockquote></p><p> They will get a fresh look at the situation after the close of trading on Thursday, when Amazon (ticker: AMZN) posts its results for the March quarter. Amazon has told investors to expect revenue of $100 billion to $106 billion, with operating income of between $3 billion and $6.5 billion, and about $2 billion in costs related to Covid-19. The Wall Street consensus calls for revenue of $104.5 billion, with profits of $9.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>周四收盘后，亚马逊（股票代码：AMZN）将公布三月份季度业绩，他们将重新审视形势。亚马逊曾告诉投资者，预计营收为1000亿至1060亿美元，营业收入在30亿至65亿美元之间，与Covid-19相关的成本约为20亿美元。华尔街一致认为评级营收为1045亿美元，每股利润为9.54美元。</blockquote></p><p> The Street also clearly expects the quarter’s results to show continued strength in e-commerce. According to FactSet, Wall Street analysts expect online-stores revenue of $51.5 billion, up 41% from a year ago, with third-party sales of $21.7 billion, up 50%. Subscription revenues are expected to be $7.3 billion, up 32%, while revenue from physical stores is expected to be $4.3 billion, down 8%. AWS revenues are projected at $13.2 billion, up 29%.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街还明确预计本季度业绩将显示电子商务的持续强劲。根据FactSet的数据，华尔街分析师预计在线商店收入为515亿美元，同比增长41%，第三方销售额为217亿美元，增长50%。订阅收入预计为73亿美元，增长32%，而实体店收入预计为43亿美元，下降8%。AWS收入预计为132亿美元，增长29%。</blockquote></p><p> One open question is what forecasts the company will make for the June quarter as parts of the country begin to return to more normal economic activity. The Street is projecting June quarter revenue of $108.7 billion and profits of $10.81 a share.</p><p><blockquote>一个悬而未决的问题是，随着该国部分地区开始恢复更正常的经济活动，该公司将对六月季度做出什么预测。华尔街预计6月份季度营收为1087亿美元，每股利润为10.81美元。</blockquote></p><p> In an earnings preview note, Truist analyst Youssef Squali&nbsp;reiterated a Buy rating on the stock and a target of $3,750 for the share price. The stock closed Tuesday at $3,417.43, up 4.9% year to date.</p><p><blockquote>在财报预览报告中，Truist分析师Youssef Squali重申了对该股的买入评级，并将股价目标定为3,750美元。该股周二收于3,417.43美元，今年迄今上涨4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> He expects revenue to come in at the high end of the range Amazon predicted, saying e-commerce demand has remained strong both in the U.S. and internationally, given that the pandemic has been slow to subside. Conversations with people in the industry and strong earning disclosed last week by Snap bode well for Amazon’s ad business, which is lumped into a category called “other,” he wrote. He also thinks the market continues to underestimate the long-term growth potential of the dominance of the company’s two key businesses—e-commerce and AWS—as well as the company’s “emerging leadership in online advertising.”</p><p><blockquote>他预计收入将达到亚马逊预测范围的高端，并表示鉴于疫情缓慢消退，美国和国际上的电子商务需求仍然强劲。他写道，与业内人士的对话以及Snap上周披露的强劲盈利对亚马逊的广告业务来说是个好兆头，亚马逊的广告业务被归入“其他”类别。他还认为，市场继续低估该公司两项关键业务——电子商务和AWS——的主导地位的长期增长潜力，以及该公司“在在线广告领域新兴的领导地位”。</blockquote></p><p> Stifel analyst Scott Devitt&nbsp;is similarly bullish, repeating a Buy rating and $4,000 target price. He sees 40% top-line growth, a little ahead of the Street consensus. “The focus on the report will largely center on the outlook as Amazon laps the difficult prior year compares from the onset of the pandemic,” he wrote in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>Stifel分析师Scott Devitt同样看好，重申买入评级和4,000美元的目标价。他预计营收将增长40%，略高于华尔街共识。他在一份研究报告中写道：“与大流行爆发以来的前一年相比，亚马逊经历了困难的一年，该报告的焦点将主要集中在前景上。”</blockquote></p><p> “Growth in a post-Covid environment remains largely uncertain for Amazon and across the e-commerce landscape,” Devitt said. “Our [June quarter] revenue estimates are ahead of consensus as we see tailwinds stemming from strong growth in new Prime members and diversification across geographies and categories supporting the retail business as economies recover.” He also said AWS and the ad business are well positioned for a recovery.</p><p><blockquote>德维特表示：“对于亚马逊和整个电子商务领域来说，后疫情环境中的增长在很大程度上仍然存在不确定性。”“我们的[六月季度]收入预期领先于共识，因为我们看到随着经济复苏，新Prime会员的强劲增长以及跨地区和类别的多元化为零售业务提供了支持。”他还表示，AWS和广告业务已做好复苏的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter likewise maintained an Outperform rating and $4,000 target. He thinks the company will post more revenue and operating income than it had forecast, an outperformance resulting from market-share gains in e-commerce.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Michael Pachter同样维持跑赢大盘评级和4,000美元的目标。他认为该公司的收入和营业收入将超出预期，这是电子商务市场份额增长带来的优异表现。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that a more stable economy, continued imposition of shelter-in-place orders in many of Amazon’s markets, continued expansion into the very large grocery segment, and outstanding execution likely drove strong results in Q1,” he said. “In addition, Amazon Pharmacy (launched February 2) represents a U.S. [addressable market] of around $600 billion, so any market share gains could provide further upside.”</p><p><blockquote>他表示：“我们认为，经济更加稳定、亚马逊许多市场继续实施就地避难订单、向超大型杂货领域的持续扩张以及出色的执行力可能会推动第一季度的强劲业绩。”“此外，亚马逊药房（2月2日推出）代表了约6000亿美元的美国[潜在市场]，因此任何市场份额的增长都可能提供进一步的上涨空间。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-is-likely-to-post-blowout-profits-the-question-is-what-follows-51619556363?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-is-likely-to-post-blowout-profits-the-question-is-what-follows-51619556363?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169827391","content_text":"Stock in Amazon.com has barely budged since the e-commerce and cloud- computing giant reported stellar fourth-quarter results that were overshadowed by the news that CEO Jeff Bezos will shift into the role of  executive chairman, with Amazon Web Services chief Andy Jassy taking over the top slot.\nThe combination of that pending change, along with uncertainty over how the reopening of the economy will affect shopping behavior, has some investors a little uneasy about the stock’s near-term prospects.\nThey will get a fresh look at the situation after the close of trading on Thursday, when Amazon (ticker: AMZN) posts its results for the March quarter. Amazon has told investors to expect revenue of $100 billion to $106 billion, with operating income of between $3 billion and $6.5 billion, and about $2 billion in costs related to Covid-19. The Wall Street consensus calls for revenue of $104.5 billion, with profits of $9.54 a share.\nThe Street also clearly expects the quarter’s results to show continued strength in e-commerce. According to FactSet, Wall Street analysts expect online-stores revenue of $51.5 billion, up 41% from a year ago, with third-party sales of $21.7 billion, up 50%. Subscription revenues are expected to be $7.3 billion, up 32%, while revenue from physical stores is expected to be $4.3 billion, down 8%. AWS revenues are projected at $13.2 billion, up 29%.\nOne open question is what forecasts the company will make for the June quarter as parts of the country begin to return to more normal economic activity. The Street is projecting June quarter revenue of $108.7 billion and profits of $10.81 a share.\nIn an earnings preview note, Truist analyst Youssef Squali reiterated a Buy rating on the stock and a target of $3,750 for the share price. The stock closed Tuesday at $3,417.43, up 4.9% year to date.\nHe expects revenue to come in at the high end of the range Amazon predicted, saying e-commerce demand has remained strong both in the U.S. and internationally, given that the pandemic has been slow to subside. Conversations with people in the industry and strong earning disclosed last week by Snap bode well for Amazon’s ad business, which is lumped into a category called “other,” he wrote. He also thinks the market continues to underestimate the long-term growth potential of the dominance of the company’s two key businesses—e-commerce and AWS—as well as the company’s “emerging leadership in online advertising.”\nStifel analyst Scott Devitt is similarly bullish, repeating a Buy rating and $4,000 target price. He sees 40% top-line growth, a little ahead of the Street consensus. “The focus on the report will largely center on the outlook as Amazon laps the difficult prior year compares from the onset of the pandemic,” he wrote in a research note.\n“Growth in a post-Covid environment remains largely uncertain for Amazon and across the e-commerce landscape,” Devitt said. “Our [June quarter] revenue estimates are ahead of consensus as we see tailwinds stemming from strong growth in new Prime members and diversification across geographies and categories supporting the retail business as economies recover.” He also said AWS and the ad business are well positioned for a recovery.\nWedbush analyst Michael Pachter likewise maintained an Outperform rating and $4,000 target. He thinks the company will post more revenue and operating income than it had forecast, an outperformance resulting from market-share gains in e-commerce. \n“We believe that a more stable economy, continued imposition of shelter-in-place orders in many of Amazon’s markets, continued expansion into the very large grocery segment, and outstanding execution likely drove strong results in Q1,” he said. “In addition, Amazon Pharmacy (launched February 2) represents a U.S. [addressable market] of around $600 billion, so any market share gains could provide further upside.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100165900,"gmtCreate":1619590660900,"gmtModify":1634211498124,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Big fight ahead!&nbsp;","listText":"Big fight ahead!&nbsp;","text":"Big fight ahead!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100165900","repostId":"1124091974","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377037520,"gmtCreate":1619484001660,"gmtModify":1634212426279,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Moony moon! Like like please thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Moony moon! Like like please thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Moony moon! Like like please thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377037520","repostId":"1190086074","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190086074","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619480390,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190086074?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-27 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创纪录4.38亿美元营收暴增74%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190086074","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be deliv","content":"<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Tesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.</li><li>In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”</li><li>On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be delivered starting in May 2021, and Model X deliveries will begin in the third quarter of the year.</li></ul>Tesla&nbsp;reported first-quarter results after the bell on Monday. The company beat expectations handily, buoyed by sales of bitcoin and regulatory credits, but the stock dipped as much as 2.5% after hours as investors digested the numbers.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉报告本季度净利润达到创纪录的4.38亿美元，每股收益为93美分，营收为103.9亿美元。</li><li>该公司在财报中表示，通过“极快地转向新的微控制器，同时为新供应商制造的新芯片开发固件”，它已经度过了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题。</li><li>在财报看涨期权上，首席执行官Elon Musk表示，该公司推迟的新版Model S轿车将于2021年5月开始交付，Model X将于今年第三季度开始交付。</li></ul>特斯拉周一盘后公布了第一季度业绩。在比特币销售和监管信贷的提振下，该公司轻松超出预期，但随着投资者消化这些数据，该股盘后下跌2.5%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec5c52f391c1077b749edc13b7b3417\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Here’s how the company fared in the quarter, compared with analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:</p><p><blockquote>以下是该公司本季度的表现，与Refinitiv编制的分析师预期相比：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings:</b>93 cents per share vs. 79 cents per share expected</li><li><b>Revenue:</b>$10.39 billion vs. $10.29 billion expected, up 74% from a year ago</li></ul>Net profit reached a quarterly record of $438 million on a GAAP basis, and the company recorded $518 million in revenue from sales of regulatory credits during the period. It also recorded a $101 million positive impact from&nbsp;sales of bitcoin&nbsp;during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>每股93美分，预期每股79美分</li><li><b>收入：</b>103.9亿美元，预期为102.9亿美元，同比增长74%</li></ul>按GAAP计算，净利润达到季度创纪录的4.38亿美元，该公司在此期间从监管信贷销售中获得了5.18亿美元的收入。本季度比特币销售还带来了1.01亿美元的积极影响。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/107ab1e725bed375ea106bdf3024ec6a\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>CEO Elon Musk’s electric vehicle business reported in the first quarter&nbsp;vehicle deliveries of 184,800&nbsp;Model 3 and Model Y cars, beating expectations and setting a record for Tesla. However, the company also said it produced none of its higher-end Model S sedans or Model X SUVs for the period ending March. It delivered2,020 older Model S sedans and Model X SUVs from inventory.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官Elon Musk的电动汽车业务报告称，第一季度Model 3和Model Y汽车交付量为18.48万辆，超出预期，创下了特斯拉的纪录。不过，该公司还表示，截至3月份，该公司没有生产任何高端Model S轿车或Model X SUV。它从库存中交付了2,020辆旧款Model S轿车和Model X SUV。</blockquote></p><p>On Monday’s earnings call, Musk said the new version of the company’s Model S sedans will finally be delivered to customers starting in May 2021, with Model X deliveries to begin in the third quarter of the year. Musk and CFO Zachary Kirkhorn both said supply chain issues are likely to remain a challenge for Tesla this year.</p><p><blockquote>在周一的财报看涨期权上，Musk表示，该公司新版Model S轿车最终将于2021年5月开始向客户交付，Model X将于今年第三季度开始交付。Musk和CFO Zachary Kirkhorn均表示，供应链问题可能仍是特斯拉今年面临的挑战。</blockquote></p><p>In January 2021 (during a fourth-quarter 2020 earnings update) Musk had said that the Model S Plaid was already in production would be delivered starting in February 2021. But he admitted on Monday, “There were more challenges than expected,” in producing the refreshed version of these vehicles. He did not elaborate.</p><p><blockquote>2021年1月（在2020年第四季度财报更新期间），马斯克曾表示Model S Plaid已经投入生产，并将于2021年2月开始交付。但他周一承认，在生产这些车辆的更新版本时，“存在比预期更多的挑战”。他没有详细说明。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla is now aiming to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles per week later this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉目前的目标是在今年晚些时候每周生产2,000辆Model S和X汽车。</blockquote></p><p>The company said Monday it expects more than 50% vehicle delivery growth in 2021 overall, which implies minimum deliveries around 750,000 vehicles this year.</p><p><blockquote>该公司周一表示，预计2021年汽车交付量总体增长将超过50%，这意味着今年的最低交付量约为75万辆。</blockquote></p><p>The fact Tesla grew vehicle unit sales by more than 100% year over year but grew service centers by only 28% and its mobile service fleet by only 22% explains why some Tesla customers face frustratingly long wait times for repairs. Service expansion is not keeping pace with the volume of vehicles sold.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，特斯拉的汽车销量同比增长超过100%，但服务中心仅增长28%，移动服务车队仅增长22%，这解释了为什么一些特斯拉客户面临令人沮丧的漫长维修等待时间。服务扩张跟不上车辆销量的步伐。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.” It did not disclose the names of its new suppliers.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，它通过“极快地转向新的微控制器，同时为新供应商制造的新芯片开发固件”，部分克服了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题。它没有透露新供应商的名称。</blockquote></p><p>It also reiterated Musk’s frequent claim that cameras, not radar, are a better path toward autonomous vehicles. “Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD [Full Self-Driving] team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision,” the company said in its earnings release.</p><p><blockquote>它还重申了马斯克经常声称的摄像头而不是雷达是自动驾驶汽车的更好途径。“我们基于人工智能的软件架构越来越依赖摄像头，以至于雷达比预期更早变得不必要。因此，我们的FSD（全自动驾驶）团队完全专注于向基于视觉的自动驾驶系统发展，我们几乎准备好将美国市场转向特斯拉视觉，”该公司在财报中表示。</blockquote></p><p>Revenue for its energy generation and storage business nearly doubled for Tesla versus the same period in 2020, when Musk said Covid, then an emerging pandemic, had slowed its energy business to a crawl. But energy revenue declined from $787 million in the fourth quarter to $595 million in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与2020年同期相比，特斯拉能源发电和存储业务的收入几乎翻了一番，当时马斯克表示，当时新冠疫情是一种新兴流行病，导致其能源业务放缓。但能源收入从第四季度的7.87亿美元下降至2021年第一季度的5.95亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Recently, Tesla increased prices for its solar rooftops by 50%, and now requires anyone ordering solar photovoltaics (including Tesla solar roof tiles) to also order the Powerwall, Tesla’s home energy storage system. The sudden price change applied retroactively to some&nbsp;vexed customers.</p><p><blockquote>最近，特斯拉将其太阳能屋顶的价格提高了50%，现在要求任何订购太阳能光伏（包括特斯拉太阳能屋顶瓦片）的人也必须订购特斯拉的家庭储能系统Powerwall。突然的价格变化追溯适用于一些恼怒的顾客。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said on the Q1 2021 call that he is aiming for homes with solar rooftops and batteries from Tesla to function as a “giant distributed utility” that can help incumbent electrical utilities supply customers with all the electricity they need as demand and extreme weather events increase.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在2021年第一季度看涨期权上表示，他的目标是让拥有太阳能屋顶和特斯拉电池的家庭成为“巨型分布式公用事业公司”，可以帮助现有电力公司在需求和极端天气事件增加时为客户提供所需的所有电力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Executives did not say how they would change their production or mix of battery cells from suppliers in order to make a higher volume of vehicles and energy storage products in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>高管们没有透露他们将如何改变供应商的电池生产或组合，以便在2021年生产更多的汽车和储能产品。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said the company’s 4680 cells, which it developed independently and makes at a pilot plant in Fremont, California, are not yet reliable enough to be shipped in Tesla vehicles. He said Tesla would probably “achieve volume production” of these cells in 12 to 18 months.</p><p><blockquote>Musk表示，该公司自主开发并在加州Fremont的一家试点工厂生产的4680电池还不够可靠，无法用特斯拉汽车运输。他表示，特斯拉可能会在12至18个月内“实现批量生产”这些电池。</blockquote></p><p>The company revealed in February it purchased&nbsp;$1.5 billion in bitcoin&nbsp;and would potentially invest in other cryptocurrencies in the future. By April, bitcoin rose to record levels before pulling back. In its statement of cash flows, Tesla revealed that it had sold $272 million worth of “digital assets,” presumably bitcoin, during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在2月份透露，它购买了15亿美元的比特币，并可能在未来投资其他加密货币。到4月份，比特币升至创纪录水平，然后回落。特斯拉在其现金流量表中透露，该公司在本季度出售了价值2.72亿美元的“数字资产”，可能是比特币。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创纪录4.38亿美元营收暴增74%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74%<blockquote>特斯拉净利润创纪录4.38亿美元营收暴增74%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-27 07:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Tesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.</li><li>In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”</li><li>On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be delivered starting in May 2021, and Model X deliveries will begin in the third quarter of the year.</li></ul>Tesla&nbsp;reported first-quarter results after the bell on Monday. The company beat expectations handily, buoyed by sales of bitcoin and regulatory credits, but the stock dipped as much as 2.5% after hours as investors digested the numbers.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉报告本季度净利润达到创纪录的4.38亿美元，每股收益为93美分，营收为103.9亿美元。</li><li>该公司在财报中表示，通过“极快地转向新的微控制器，同时为新供应商制造的新芯片开发固件”，它已经度过了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题。</li><li>在财报看涨期权上，首席执行官Elon Musk表示，该公司推迟的新版Model S轿车将于2021年5月开始交付，Model X将于今年第三季度开始交付。</li></ul>特斯拉周一盘后公布了第一季度业绩。在比特币销售和监管信贷的提振下，该公司轻松超出预期，但随着投资者消化这些数据，该股盘后下跌2.5%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec5c52f391c1077b749edc13b7b3417\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Here’s how the company fared in the quarter, compared with analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:</p><p><blockquote>以下是该公司本季度的表现，与Refinitiv编制的分析师预期相比：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings:</b>93 cents per share vs. 79 cents per share expected</li><li><b>Revenue:</b>$10.39 billion vs. $10.29 billion expected, up 74% from a year ago</li></ul>Net profit reached a quarterly record of $438 million on a GAAP basis, and the company recorded $518 million in revenue from sales of regulatory credits during the period. It also recorded a $101 million positive impact from&nbsp;sales of bitcoin&nbsp;during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>每股93美分，预期每股79美分</li><li><b>收入：</b>103.9亿美元，预期为102.9亿美元，同比增长74%</li></ul>按GAAP计算，净利润达到季度创纪录的4.38亿美元，该公司在此期间从监管信贷销售中获得了5.18亿美元的收入。本季度比特币销售还带来了1.01亿美元的积极影响。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/107ab1e725bed375ea106bdf3024ec6a\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>CEO Elon Musk’s electric vehicle business reported in the first quarter&nbsp;vehicle deliveries of 184,800&nbsp;Model 3 and Model Y cars, beating expectations and setting a record for Tesla. However, the company also said it produced none of its higher-end Model S sedans or Model X SUVs for the period ending March. It delivered2,020 older Model S sedans and Model X SUVs from inventory.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官Elon Musk的电动汽车业务报告称，第一季度Model 3和Model Y汽车交付量为18.48万辆，超出预期，创下了特斯拉的纪录。不过，该公司还表示，截至3月份，该公司没有生产任何高端Model S轿车或Model X SUV。它从库存中交付了2,020辆旧款Model S轿车和Model X SUV。</blockquote></p><p>On Monday’s earnings call, Musk said the new version of the company’s Model S sedans will finally be delivered to customers starting in May 2021, with Model X deliveries to begin in the third quarter of the year. Musk and CFO Zachary Kirkhorn both said supply chain issues are likely to remain a challenge for Tesla this year.</p><p><blockquote>在周一的财报看涨期权上，Musk表示，该公司新版Model S轿车最终将于2021年5月开始向客户交付，Model X将于今年第三季度开始交付。Musk和CFO Zachary Kirkhorn均表示，供应链问题可能仍是特斯拉今年面临的挑战。</blockquote></p><p>In January 2021 (during a fourth-quarter 2020 earnings update) Musk had said that the Model S Plaid was already in production would be delivered starting in February 2021. But he admitted on Monday, “There were more challenges than expected,” in producing the refreshed version of these vehicles. He did not elaborate.</p><p><blockquote>2021年1月（在2020年第四季度财报更新期间），马斯克曾表示Model S Plaid已经投入生产，并将于2021年2月开始交付。但他周一承认，在生产这些车辆的更新版本时，“存在比预期更多的挑战”。他没有详细说明。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla is now aiming to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles per week later this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉目前的目标是在今年晚些时候每周生产2,000辆Model S和X汽车。</blockquote></p><p>The company said Monday it expects more than 50% vehicle delivery growth in 2021 overall, which implies minimum deliveries around 750,000 vehicles this year.</p><p><blockquote>该公司周一表示，预计2021年汽车交付量总体增长将超过50%，这意味着今年的最低交付量约为75万辆。</blockquote></p><p>The fact Tesla grew vehicle unit sales by more than 100% year over year but grew service centers by only 28% and its mobile service fleet by only 22% explains why some Tesla customers face frustratingly long wait times for repairs. Service expansion is not keeping pace with the volume of vehicles sold.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，特斯拉的汽车销量同比增长超过100%，但服务中心仅增长28%，移动服务车队仅增长22%，这解释了为什么一些特斯拉客户面临令人沮丧的漫长维修等待时间。服务扩张跟不上车辆销量的步伐。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.” It did not disclose the names of its new suppliers.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，它通过“极快地转向新的微控制器，同时为新供应商制造的新芯片开发固件”，部分克服了困扰汽车行业的芯片短缺问题。它没有透露新供应商的名称。</blockquote></p><p>It also reiterated Musk’s frequent claim that cameras, not radar, are a better path toward autonomous vehicles. “Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD [Full Self-Driving] team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision,” the company said in its earnings release.</p><p><blockquote>它还重申了马斯克经常声称的摄像头而不是雷达是自动驾驶汽车的更好途径。“我们基于人工智能的软件架构越来越依赖摄像头，以至于雷达比预期更早变得不必要。因此，我们的FSD（全自动驾驶）团队完全专注于向基于视觉的自动驾驶系统发展，我们几乎准备好将美国市场转向特斯拉视觉，”该公司在财报中表示。</blockquote></p><p>Revenue for its energy generation and storage business nearly doubled for Tesla versus the same period in 2020, when Musk said Covid, then an emerging pandemic, had slowed its energy business to a crawl. But energy revenue declined from $787 million in the fourth quarter to $595 million in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与2020年同期相比，特斯拉能源发电和存储业务的收入几乎翻了一番，当时马斯克表示，当时新冠疫情是一种新兴流行病，导致其能源业务放缓。但能源收入从第四季度的7.87亿美元下降至2021年第一季度的5.95亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Recently, Tesla increased prices for its solar rooftops by 50%, and now requires anyone ordering solar photovoltaics (including Tesla solar roof tiles) to also order the Powerwall, Tesla’s home energy storage system. The sudden price change applied retroactively to some&nbsp;vexed customers.</p><p><blockquote>最近，特斯拉将其太阳能屋顶的价格提高了50%，现在要求任何订购太阳能光伏（包括特斯拉太阳能屋顶瓦片）的人也必须订购特斯拉的家庭储能系统Powerwall。突然的价格变化追溯适用于一些恼怒的顾客。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said on the Q1 2021 call that he is aiming for homes with solar rooftops and batteries from Tesla to function as a “giant distributed utility” that can help incumbent electrical utilities supply customers with all the electricity they need as demand and extreme weather events increase.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在2021年第一季度看涨期权上表示，他的目标是让拥有太阳能屋顶和特斯拉电池的家庭成为“巨型分布式公用事业公司”，可以帮助现有电力公司在需求和极端天气事件增加时为客户提供所需的所有电力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Executives did not say how they would change their production or mix of battery cells from suppliers in order to make a higher volume of vehicles and energy storage products in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>高管们没有透露他们将如何改变供应商的电池生产或组合，以便在2021年生产更多的汽车和储能产品。</blockquote></p><p>Musk said the company’s 4680 cells, which it developed independently and makes at a pilot plant in Fremont, California, are not yet reliable enough to be shipped in Tesla vehicles. He said Tesla would probably “achieve volume production” of these cells in 12 to 18 months.</p><p><blockquote>Musk表示，该公司自主开发并在加州Fremont的一家试点工厂生产的4680电池还不够可靠，无法用特斯拉汽车运输。他表示，特斯拉可能会在12至18个月内“实现批量生产”这些电池。</blockquote></p><p>The company revealed in February it purchased&nbsp;$1.5 billion in bitcoin&nbsp;and would potentially invest in other cryptocurrencies in the future. By April, bitcoin rose to record levels before pulling back. In its statement of cash flows, Tesla revealed that it had sold $272 million worth of “digital assets,” presumably bitcoin, during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在2月份透露，它购买了15亿美元的比特币，并可能在未来投资其他加密货币。到4月份，比特币升至创纪录水平，然后回落。特斯拉在其现金流量表中透露，该公司在本季度出售了价值2.72亿美元的“数字资产”，可能是比特币。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190086074","content_text":"KEY POINTSTesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue.In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.”On an earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the delayed new version of the company’s Model S sedan will be delivered starting in May 2021, and Model X deliveries will begin in the third quarter of the year.Tesla reported first-quarter results after the bell on Monday. The company beat expectations handily, buoyed by sales of bitcoin and regulatory credits, but the stock dipped as much as 2.5% after hours as investors digested the numbers.Here’s how the company fared in the quarter, compared with analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:Earnings:93 cents per share vs. 79 cents per share expectedRevenue:$10.39 billion vs. $10.29 billion expected, up 74% from a year agoNet profit reached a quarterly record of $438 million on a GAAP basis, and the company recorded $518 million in revenue from sales of regulatory credits during the period. It also recorded a $101 million positive impact from sales of bitcoin during the quarter.CEO Elon Musk’s electric vehicle business reported in the first quarter vehicle deliveries of 184,800 Model 3 and Model Y cars, beating expectations and setting a record for Tesla. However, the company also said it produced none of its higher-end Model S sedans or Model X SUVs for the period ending March. It delivered2,020 older Model S sedans and Model X SUVs from inventory.On Monday’s earnings call, Musk said the new version of the company’s Model S sedans will finally be delivered to customers starting in May 2021, with Model X deliveries to begin in the third quarter of the year. Musk and CFO Zachary Kirkhorn both said supply chain issues are likely to remain a challenge for Tesla this year.In January 2021 (during a fourth-quarter 2020 earnings update) Musk had said that the Model S Plaid was already in production would be delivered starting in February 2021. But he admitted on Monday, “There were more challenges than expected,” in producing the refreshed version of these vehicles. He did not elaborate.Tesla is now aiming to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles per week later this year.The company said Monday it expects more than 50% vehicle delivery growth in 2021 overall, which implies minimum deliveries around 750,000 vehicles this year.The fact Tesla grew vehicle unit sales by more than 100% year over year but grew service centers by only 28% and its mobile service fleet by only 22% explains why some Tesla customers face frustratingly long wait times for repairs. Service expansion is not keeping pace with the volume of vehicles sold.Tesla said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry in part by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.” It did not disclose the names of its new suppliers.It also reiterated Musk’s frequent claim that cameras, not radar, are a better path toward autonomous vehicles. “Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD [Full Self-Driving] team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision,” the company said in its earnings release.Revenue for its energy generation and storage business nearly doubled for Tesla versus the same period in 2020, when Musk said Covid, then an emerging pandemic, had slowed its energy business to a crawl. But energy revenue declined from $787 million in the fourth quarter to $595 million in the first quarter of 2021.Recently, Tesla increased prices for its solar rooftops by 50%, and now requires anyone ordering solar photovoltaics (including Tesla solar roof tiles) to also order the Powerwall, Tesla’s home energy storage system. The sudden price change applied retroactively to some vexed customers.Musk said on the Q1 2021 call that he is aiming for homes with solar rooftops and batteries from Tesla to function as a “giant distributed utility” that can help incumbent electrical utilities supply customers with all the electricity they need as demand and extreme weather events increase.Executives did not say how they would change their production or mix of battery cells from suppliers in order to make a higher volume of vehicles and energy storage products in 2021.Musk said the company’s 4680 cells, which it developed independently and makes at a pilot plant in Fremont, California, are not yet reliable enough to be shipped in Tesla vehicles. He said Tesla would probably “achieve volume production” of these cells in 12 to 18 months.The company revealed in February it purchased $1.5 billion in bitcoin and would potentially invest in other cryptocurrencies in the future. By April, bitcoin rose to record levels before pulling back. In its statement of cash flows, Tesla revealed that it had sold $272 million worth of “digital assets,” presumably bitcoin, during the quarter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375483371,"gmtCreate":1619391801193,"gmtModify":1634273938137,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"NFT are da bomb now! Like and share for me?&nbsp;","listText":"NFT are da bomb now! Like and share for me?&nbsp;","text":"NFT are da bomb now! Like and share for me?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375483371","repostId":"1188060568","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375264540,"gmtCreate":1619349596380,"gmtModify":1634274075523,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like meee","listText":"Like meee","text":"Like meee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375264540","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":343984435,"gmtCreate":1617669770127,"gmtModify":1634297226946,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogo Jones! Like like thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Gogo Jones! Like like thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Gogo Jones! Like like thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343984435","repostId":"1153914073","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198797359,"gmtCreate":1620988930071,"gmtModify":1634194757317,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip!&nbsp;","listText":"Buy the dip!&nbsp;","text":"Buy the dip!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198797359","repostId":"2135945620","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196690323,"gmtCreate":1621046234862,"gmtModify":1634194327301,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon! Like please thanks&nbsp;","listText":"To the moon! Like please thanks&nbsp;","text":"To the moon! Like please thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196690323","repostId":"1163454382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163454382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621004581,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163454382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-14 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163454382","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million. First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinat","content":"<p>  <b>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.</b>  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在再次融资后，AMC投资者有理由更加乐观。</b><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> A day after<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>(NYSE:AMC)</p><p><blockquote>一天后<b>AMC院线控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC）</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million</p><p><blockquote>昨天的股价上涨是在该公司宣布筹集4.28亿美元后发生的</blockquote></p><p> First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，美国疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）发布了一份关于当前健康和安全协议的新声明，称完全接种疫苗的人可以在不戴口罩或保持身体距离的情况下恢复活动，包括在室内。</blockquote></p><p> This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.</p><p><blockquote>这将使电影院能够满负荷开放，并成为接种疫苗的电影顾客的理想目的地。同样在昨天，<b>迪斯尼</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）宣布了季度收益报告，首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克指出“我们工作室的产量有所增加”。虽然这对影院运营商来说是积极的，但迪士尼也报告称其流媒体服务的用户增长令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Lower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.</p><p><blockquote>流媒体订阅量的下降对影院业务来说可能是一个积极的信号。随着疫苗接种的继续推广，以及疾病预防控制中心现在正式批准在不戴口罩的情况下与人群聚集在室内，剧院的上座率可能会很快恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗接种将促使人们回到户外活动。在一年多的时间里，电影院可能会成为人们最喜欢的目的地。在另一次融资之后，AMC投资者可能认为这家公司终于有了一条充满希望的未来之路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-14 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.</b>  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在再次融资后，AMC投资者有理由更加乐观。</b><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> A day after<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>(NYSE:AMC)</p><p><blockquote>一天后<b>AMC院线控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC）</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million</p><p><blockquote>昨天的股价上涨是在该公司宣布筹集4.28亿美元后发生的</blockquote></p><p> First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，美国疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）发布了一份关于当前健康和安全协议的新声明，称完全接种疫苗的人可以在不戴口罩或保持身体距离的情况下恢复活动，包括在室内。</blockquote></p><p> This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.</p><p><blockquote>这将使电影院能够满负荷开放，并成为接种疫苗的电影顾客的理想目的地。同样在昨天，<b>迪斯尼</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）宣布了季度收益报告，首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克指出“我们工作室的产量有所增加”。虽然这对影院运营商来说是积极的，但迪士尼也报告称其流媒体服务的用户增长令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Lower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.</p><p><blockquote>流媒体订阅量的下降对影院业务来说可能是一个积极的信号。随着疫苗接种的继续推广，以及疾病预防控制中心现在正式批准在不戴口罩的情况下与人群聚集在室内，剧院的上座率可能会很快恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗接种将促使人们回到户外活动。在一年多的时间里，电影院可能会成为人们最喜欢的目的地。在另一次融资之后，AMC投资者可能认为这家公司终于有了一条充满希望的未来之路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163454382","content_text":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.\n\nWhat happened\nA day afterAMC Entertainment Holdings(NYSE:AMC)\nSo what\nYesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million\nFirst, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.\nThis should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,Walt Disney(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.\nNow what\nLower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.\nVaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104176815,"gmtCreate":1620368689637,"gmtModify":1634205710312,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still undervalued? So expensive already... Like if you agree&nbsp;","listText":"Still undervalued? So expensive already... Like if you agree&nbsp;","text":"Still undervalued? So expensive already... Like if you agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104176815","repostId":"1157328258","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157328258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620360165,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157328258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157328258","media":"Seeking alpha","summary":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entere","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于DCF的亚马逊股价目标显示30%的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上个季度的业绩对亚马逊（AMZN）进行了全面的分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊上个季度的增长是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”部分的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了接近线性的趋势。现在，它已经成为指数级增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场——这里的加速仍然存在，上个季度的结果好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）部门也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘Amazon Web Services’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的结果来看，有逐渐回归之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的营收也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键细分市场</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去10年中，亚马逊的资本化与其收入呈定性线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本化的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本的增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，首先，这个模型表明公司当前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一个模块中，我根据收入对亚马逊的均衡价格进行了建模。值得注意的是，如果我们用同样的方法使用倍数对公司进行比较估值，我们就会失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数来成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整后的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：寻求Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我也从分析师对公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，在终端年将营业利润率逐步提高到8%是一个非常现实的情况。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>以下是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚马逊股票基于DCF的目标价为4,280美元，上涨空间为29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段的事实并不意味着其市值不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本化和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的DCF模型分析师表示低估了30%。今年年初，类似的模型显示估值被低估了20%。</li><li>当你看亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题的公司更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-07 12:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于DCF的亚马逊股价目标显示30%的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上个季度的业绩对亚马逊（AMZN）进行了全面的分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊上个季度的增长是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”部分的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了接近线性的趋势。现在，它已经成为指数级增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场——这里的加速仍然存在，上个季度的结果好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）部门也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘Amazon Web Services’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的结果来看，有逐渐回归之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的营收也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键细分市场</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去10年中，亚马逊的资本化与其收入呈定性线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本化的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本的增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，首先，这个模型表明公司当前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一个模块中，我根据收入对亚马逊的均衡价格进行了建模。值得注意的是，如果我们用同样的方法使用倍数对公司进行比较估值，我们就会失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数来成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整后的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：寻求Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我也从分析师对公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，在终端年将营业利润率逐步提高到8%是一个非常现实的情况。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>以下是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚马逊股票基于DCF的目标价为4,280美元，上涨空间为29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段的事实并不意味着其市值不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本化和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的DCF模型分析师表示低估了30%。今年年初，类似的模型显示估值被低估了20%。</li><li>当你看亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题的公司更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company\">Seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157328258","content_text":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.#1 Price vs. GrowthFirst of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comGeographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comSo, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growthin all key segments. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThere is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comBased on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is alreadybelow the balanced level. And secondly, it assumes a25% growthin capitalization in the next four quarters.#2 Comparative ValuationIn the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.#3 Discounted Cash Flow ModelWhen predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:Source: Seeking Alpha ProWhen predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:Source: AuthorSome explanations:In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.Here is the model itself:(In high resolution)Source: AuthorThe DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.Final thoughtsAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company isundervalued.Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company ismuch cheaperthan the market.DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379648359,"gmtCreate":1618734029771,"gmtModify":1634291181919,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Expire like milk&nbsp;","listText":"Expire like milk&nbsp;","text":"Expire like milk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379648359","repostId":"1175692875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175692875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618582708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175692875?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175692875","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire","content":"<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这不是四（甚至三）巫术日，但今天的大量每周期权将到期，其中可能一文不值，其他期权将为基础价格提供支持“引脚”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4月份每日期权交易量增长了70%，高于3月30日年初至今24亿美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总体而言，单个股票中有5440亿美元的期权将于今天到期，其中包括3050亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期对于平值（ATM）期权持有大量未平仓合约的股票可能很重要，因为做市商对其异常大的期权投资组合进行delta对冲将会很活跃。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的维沙尔·维韦克（Vishal Vivek）所写，在重大到期时，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约即将到期。</b>在平价执行（执行价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中存在大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，delta对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对其头寸进行delta对冲的期权交易者是净多头ATM期权，则与到期相关的流量可能会产生抑制股价走势的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约在行权附近结算。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大型投资者来说是理想的情况。或者，如果delta对冲者是ATM期权的净空头（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致具有大量ATM未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助寻求日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，列出了今天到期的ATM未平仓合约较大的可能焦点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约占股票交易量的很大一部分，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在SpotGamma的朋友写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的几乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙“突破”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，例如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，我们将在一篇更长的文章中发布。”</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动率现在已经压缩（即VIX处于新低），现在“长期”波动的潜力更大。回想一下最近市场的任何剧烈下跌都是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些大幅走低与创纪录的VIX飙升同时发生，但随着VIX（即隐含波动率）的逆转，反射性的snap回调将带来同等力度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma的另一个奇怪观察：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动率非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或抓住支撑位，隐含波动率就会迅速反转走低。<b>我们经常想到这样一个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确！）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含波动率就会下降。</b>正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购空头对冲，从而推动反弹。SG的结论是：目前较低的隐含波动率水平给了市场更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始会“减缓”反应性的“snap回”购买机制。此外，当IV较低时，伽马较高，因此伽马翻转可能有更多的果汁。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-16 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这不是四（甚至三）巫术日，但今天的大量每周期权将到期，其中可能一文不值，其他期权将为基础价格提供支持“引脚”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4月份每日期权交易量增长了70%，高于3月30日年初至今24亿美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总体而言，单个股票中有5440亿美元的期权将于今天到期，其中包括3050亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期对于平值（ATM）期权持有大量未平仓合约的股票可能很重要，因为做市商对其异常大的期权投资组合进行delta对冲将会很活跃。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的维沙尔·维韦克（Vishal Vivek）所写，在重大到期时，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约即将到期。</b>在平价执行（执行价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中存在大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，delta对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对其头寸进行delta对冲的期权交易者是净多头ATM期权，则与到期相关的流量可能会产生抑制股价走势的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约在行权附近结算。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大型投资者来说是理想的情况。或者，如果delta对冲者是ATM期权的净空头（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致具有大量ATM未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助寻求日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，列出了今天到期的ATM未平仓合约较大的可能焦点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约占股票交易量的很大一部分，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在SpotGamma的朋友写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的几乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙“突破”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，例如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，我们将在一篇更长的文章中发布。”</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动率现在已经压缩（即VIX处于新低），现在“长期”波动的潜力更大。回想一下最近市场的任何剧烈下跌都是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些大幅走低与创纪录的VIX飙升同时发生，但随着VIX（即隐含波动率）的逆转，反射性的snap回调将带来同等力度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma的另一个奇怪观察：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动率非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或抓住支撑位，隐含波动率就会迅速反转走低。<b>我们经常想到这样一个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确！）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含波动率就会下降。</b>正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购空头对冲，从而推动反弹。SG的结论是：目前较低的隐含波动率水平给了市场更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始会“减缓”反应性的“snap回”购买机制。此外，当IV较低时，伽马较高，因此伽马翻转可能有更多的果汁。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175692875","content_text":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.How to trade this?As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations wherea large amount of open interest is set to expire.In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX  (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.  Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.  Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340502826,"gmtCreate":1617425798265,"gmtModify":1634521002725,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Honestly I still think TSLA Is overhyped. Like if you agree.&nbsp;","listText":"Honestly I still think TSLA Is overhyped. Like if you agree.&nbsp;","text":"Honestly I still think TSLA Is overhyped. Like if you agree.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340502826","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320691797,"gmtCreate":1615088556619,"gmtModify":1703484637153,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy dip dip buy!&nbsp;","listText":"Buy dip dip buy!&nbsp;","text":"Buy dip dip buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320691797","repostId":"1169596583","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169596583","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614958557,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169596583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-05 23:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir暴跌超13%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169596583","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.","content":"<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.</p><p><blockquote>（3月5日）Palantir暴跌超13%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f756ec57cca85c31b6be070941d7c1\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir暴跌超13%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir暴跌超13%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-05 23:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.</p><p><blockquote>（3月5日）Palantir暴跌超13%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f756ec57cca85c31b6be070941d7c1\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169596583","content_text":"(March 5) Palantir plunged more than 13%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101417427,"gmtCreate":1619931114969,"gmtModify":1634209020814,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Smart man.&nbsp;","listText":"Smart man.&nbsp;","text":"Smart man.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101417427","repostId":"1103106179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353115990,"gmtCreate":1616469053710,"gmtModify":1634525660461,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gg discord.&nbsp;","listText":"Gg discord.&nbsp;","text":"Gg discord.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353115990","repostId":"2121833106","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2121833106","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616469915,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2121833106?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-23 11:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft in talks to acquire Discord for more than $10 billion: Bloomberg News<blockquote>微软正在洽谈以超过100亿美元收购Discord：彭博新闻</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2121833106","media":"reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp is in talks to buy messaging platform Discord Inc for more than $10 billi","content":"<p>(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp is in talks to buy messaging platform Discord Inc for more than $10 billion, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-据彭博新闻社援引知情人士的话报道，微软公司正在就以超过100亿美元收购消息平台Discord Inc进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p>Discord has reached out to potential buyers and Microsoft is one of them, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter, while one of them said it was more likely to go public than sell itself.</p><p><blockquote>报道援引知情人士的话称，Discord已经联系了潜在买家，微软就是其中之一，而其中一位人士表示，该公司更有可能上市，而不是出售自己。</blockquote></p><p>Earlier in the day, VentureBeat reported that Discord was exploring a sale and it was in final talks with a party.</p><p><blockquote>当天早些时候，VentureBeat报道称，Discord正在探索出售，并正在与一方进行最后谈判。</blockquote></p><p>Both Microsoft and Discord did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comments.</p><p><blockquote>微软和Discord都没有立即回应路透社的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has boosted the prospects of gaming companies as people stayed at home and turned to video games for entertainment during lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎疫情提振了游戏公司的前景，因为人们在封锁期间呆在家里，转向视频游戏娱乐。</blockquote></p><p>Earlier this month, U.S. gaming company Roblox made a strong market debut after going public through a direct listing rather than a traditional initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，美国游戏公司Roblox通过直接上市而不是传统的首次公开募股上市后，首次亮相市场表现强劲。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft in talks to acquire Discord for more than $10 billion: Bloomberg News<blockquote>微软正在洽谈以超过100亿美元收购Discord：彭博新闻</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft in talks to acquire Discord for more than $10 billion: Bloomberg News<blockquote>微软正在洽谈以超过100亿美元收购Discord：彭博新闻</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-23 11:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp is in talks to buy messaging platform Discord Inc for more than $10 billion, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-据彭博新闻社援引知情人士的话报道，微软公司正在就以超过100亿美元收购消息平台Discord Inc进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p>Discord has reached out to potential buyers and Microsoft is one of them, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter, while one of them said it was more likely to go public than sell itself.</p><p><blockquote>报道援引知情人士的话称，Discord已经联系了潜在买家，微软就是其中之一，而其中一位人士表示，该公司更有可能上市，而不是出售自己。</blockquote></p><p>Earlier in the day, VentureBeat reported that Discord was exploring a sale and it was in final talks with a party.</p><p><blockquote>当天早些时候，VentureBeat报道称，Discord正在探索出售，并正在与一方进行最后谈判。</blockquote></p><p>Both Microsoft and Discord did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comments.</p><p><blockquote>微软和Discord都没有立即回应路透社的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has boosted the prospects of gaming companies as people stayed at home and turned to video games for entertainment during lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎疫情提振了游戏公司的前景，因为人们在封锁期间呆在家里，转向视频游戏娱乐。</blockquote></p><p>Earlier this month, U.S. gaming company Roblox made a strong market debut after going public through a direct listing rather than a traditional initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，美国游戏公司Roblox通过直接上市而不是传统的首次公开募股上市后，首次亮相市场表现强劲。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-discord-m-a/microsoft-in-talks-to-acquire-discord-for-more-than-10-billion-bloomberg-news-idUSKBN2BE320?il=0\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","PINS":"Pinterest, Inc.","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-discord-m-a/microsoft-in-talks-to-acquire-discord-for-more-than-10-billion-bloomberg-news-idUSKBN2BE320?il=0","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2121833106","content_text":"(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp is in talks to buy messaging platform Discord Inc for more than $10 billion, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.Discord has reached out to potential buyers and Microsoft is one of them, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter, while one of them said it was more likely to go public than sell itself.Earlier in the day, VentureBeat reported that Discord was exploring a sale and it was in final talks with a party.Both Microsoft and Discord did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comments.The COVID-19 pandemic has boosted the prospects of gaming companies as people stayed at home and turned to video games for entertainment during lockdowns.Earlier this month, U.S. gaming company Roblox made a strong market debut after going public through a direct listing rather than a traditional initial public offering.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"PINS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359875530,"gmtCreate":1616387693820,"gmtModify":1634526112135,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Chiong ah&nbsp;","listText":"Chiong ah&nbsp;","text":"Chiong 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joke.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325789315","repostId":"1137226701","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320991347,"gmtCreate":1614996570889,"gmtModify":1703484064345,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy&nbsp;the dip! Tomorrow the dip become high... Then buy tomorrow dip!&nbsp;","listText":"Buy&nbsp;the dip! Tomorrow the dip become high... Then buy tomorrow dip!&nbsp;","text":"Buy the dip! Tomorrow the dip become high... Then buy tomorrow dip!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320991347","repostId":"1182430321","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346794315,"gmtCreate":1618110425037,"gmtModify":1634294861965,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Netflix vs Disney+.. Which is better?&nbsp;","listText":"Netflix vs Disney+.. Which is better?&nbsp;","text":"Netflix vs Disney+.. Which is better?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346794315","repostId":"2126315033","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352378079,"gmtCreate":1616900242091,"gmtModify":1634523609471,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm really?&nbsp;","listText":"Hmmm really?&nbsp;","text":"Hmmm really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352378079","repostId":"1114428323","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350798643,"gmtCreate":1616286204082,"gmtModify":1634526522648,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mark ah Mark... Stop earning money leh...&nbsp;","listText":"Mark ah Mark... Stop earning money leh...&nbsp;","text":"Mark ah Mark... Stop earning money leh...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350798643","repostId":"1136440314","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326767929,"gmtCreate":1615716217561,"gmtModify":1703492351724,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla OP&nbsp;","listText":"Tesla OP&nbsp;","text":"Tesla OP","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326767929","repostId":"1100128328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100128328","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615563404,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100128328?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-12 23:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100128328","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stock inTesla is lower after CNBC reported that the electric-vehicle company had a firein its Fremon","content":"<p>Stock inTesla&nbsp;is lower after CNBC reported that the&nbsp;electric-vehicle&nbsp;company&nbsp;had a firein its Fremont, Calif. plant, but the blaze probably isn’t the reason for the dip.</p><p><blockquote>CNBC报道电动汽车公司特斯拉在加利福尼亚州弗里蒙特发生火灾后，该公司股价走低。植物，但大火可能不是下降的原因。</blockquote></p><p>Fires are just a normal, albeit unfortunate, operating problem for any manufacturer. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the fire or the damage it may have caused.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何制造商来说，火灾只是一个正常但不幸的操作问题。特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）没有立即回应有关火灾或火灾可能造成的损失的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p>President Joe Biden is probably responsible for the share-price decline, which left the stock about 2.7% lower in premarket trading, at about $680. It has beena wild weekfor Tesla stockholders. Shares started off the week at about $675,traded above $700and fell to about $560 before bounding back, up 4.7% Thursday, to just under $700.</p><p><blockquote>总统乔·拜登可能对股价下跌负有责任，该股在盘前交易中下跌约2.7%，至约680美元。对于特斯拉股东来说，这是疯狂的一周。本周初股价约为675美元，交易价格高于700美元，跌至约560美元，然后反弹，周四上涨4.7%，至略低于700美元。</blockquote></p><p>Nothing Tesla has done appears to be the reason for the recent volatility. It’s all about interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉所做的一切似乎都不是最近波动的原因。一切都与利率有关。</blockquote></p><p>That is where the president comes into the picture. Thursday evening, he addressed the nation, focusing on putting Covid-19 in the rearview mirror a year after the World Health Organization declared that a pandemic had begun.</p><p><blockquote>这就是总统发挥作用的地方。周四晚上，他向全国发表讲话，重点是在世界卫生组织宣布疫情已经开始一年后，将新冠肺炎(Covid-19)抛在脑后。</blockquote></p><p>“All adult Americans will be eligible to get a vaccine no later than May 1,” said the president, adding the federal government is setting up hundreds of vaccination sites and procuring millions more vaccine doses.</p><p><blockquote>总统说：“所有成年美国人都有资格在5月1日之前接种疫苗。”他补充说，联邦政府正在建立数百个疫苗接种点，并采购数百万剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>It’s good news, but the market is selling off Friday morning. For stocks, the speech represents almost too much of a good thing. The economy is reopening and, as a result,bond yields are rising, putting pressure on high-growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>这是个好消息，但周五早上市场正在抛售。对于股票来说，这次讲话几乎代表了太多的好事。经济正在重新开放，因此债券收益率正在上升，给高增长股票带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>Futures on the&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;Index, home to many highflying tech stocks, are down 1.6%.Dow Jones Industrial Averagefutures, on the other hand, are flat.</p><p><blockquote>拥有许多飙升的科技股的纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌1.6%。另一方面，道琼斯工业平均指数期货持平。</blockquote></p><p>Higher yields hurt richly valued, fast-growing companies more than others for a couple of reasons. One, they makes funding growth more expensive. Two, high- growth companies are expected generate most of their cash far in the future. That cash is a little less valuable in present terms when rates are high, compared with when rates are low. In a higher-rate environment, investors have more options to earn interest today, which puts pressure on high-growth stocks’ valuations.</p><p><blockquote>出于几个原因，较高的收益率对估值高、快速增长的公司的伤害比其他公司更大。第一，它们使融资增长更加昂贵。第二，高增长公司预计将在未来产生大部分现金。与利率低时相比，利率高时现金的价值较低。在利率较高的环境下，投资者如今有更多赚取利息的选择，这给高增长股票的估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>A Friday dip, however,doesn’t mean the end&nbsp;of the bull market in Tesla, EV stocks or the Nasdaq. Getting the economy back on its feet is a good thing. Investors just need a chance to adjust to the changing landscape.</p><p><blockquote>然而，周五的下跌并不意味着特斯拉、电动汽车股票或纳斯达克牛市的结束。让经济重新站稳脚跟是件好事。投资者只是需要一个机会来适应不断变化的形势。</blockquote></p><p>“There’s a good chance you, your families and friends will be able to get together in your backyard or in your neighborhood and have a cookout …and celebrate Independence Day,” Biden said. That is great news.</p><p><blockquote>拜登说：“你、你的家人和朋友很有可能能够在你的后院或附近聚会，野餐……庆祝独立日。”这是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Is Down. You Could Blame Joe Biden.<blockquote>特斯拉股价下跌。你可以责怪乔·拜登。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-12 23:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stock inTesla&nbsp;is lower after CNBC reported that the&nbsp;electric-vehicle&nbsp;company&nbsp;had a firein its Fremont, Calif. plant, but the blaze probably isn’t the reason for the dip.</p><p><blockquote>CNBC报道电动汽车公司特斯拉在加利福尼亚州弗里蒙特发生火灾后，该公司股价走低。植物，但大火可能不是下降的原因。</blockquote></p><p>Fires are just a normal, albeit unfortunate, operating problem for any manufacturer. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the fire or the damage it may have caused.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何制造商来说，火灾只是一个正常但不幸的操作问题。特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）没有立即回应有关火灾或火灾可能造成的损失的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p>President Joe Biden is probably responsible for the share-price decline, which left the stock about 2.7% lower in premarket trading, at about $680. It has beena wild weekfor Tesla stockholders. Shares started off the week at about $675,traded above $700and fell to about $560 before bounding back, up 4.7% Thursday, to just under $700.</p><p><blockquote>总统乔·拜登可能对股价下跌负有责任，该股在盘前交易中下跌约2.7%，至约680美元。对于特斯拉股东来说，这是疯狂的一周。本周初股价约为675美元，交易价格高于700美元，跌至约560美元，然后反弹，周四上涨4.7%，至略低于700美元。</blockquote></p><p>Nothing Tesla has done appears to be the reason for the recent volatility. It’s all about interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉所做的一切似乎都不是最近波动的原因。一切都与利率有关。</blockquote></p><p>That is where the president comes into the picture. Thursday evening, he addressed the nation, focusing on putting Covid-19 in the rearview mirror a year after the World Health Organization declared that a pandemic had begun.</p><p><blockquote>这就是总统发挥作用的地方。周四晚上，他向全国发表讲话，重点是在世界卫生组织宣布疫情已经开始一年后，将新冠肺炎(Covid-19)抛在脑后。</blockquote></p><p>“All adult Americans will be eligible to get a vaccine no later than May 1,” said the president, adding the federal government is setting up hundreds of vaccination sites and procuring millions more vaccine doses.</p><p><blockquote>总统说：“所有成年美国人都有资格在5月1日之前接种疫苗。”他补充说，联邦政府正在建立数百个疫苗接种点，并采购数百万剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>It’s good news, but the market is selling off Friday morning. For stocks, the speech represents almost too much of a good thing. The economy is reopening and, as a result,bond yields are rising, putting pressure on high-growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>这是个好消息，但周五早上市场正在抛售。对于股票来说，这次讲话几乎代表了太多的好事。经济正在重新开放，因此债券收益率正在上升，给高增长股票带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>Futures on the&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;Index, home to many highflying tech stocks, are down 1.6%.Dow Jones Industrial Averagefutures, on the other hand, are flat.</p><p><blockquote>拥有许多飙升的科技股的纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌1.6%。另一方面，道琼斯工业平均指数期货持平。</blockquote></p><p>Higher yields hurt richly valued, fast-growing companies more than others for a couple of reasons. One, they makes funding growth more expensive. Two, high- growth companies are expected generate most of their cash far in the future. That cash is a little less valuable in present terms when rates are high, compared with when rates are low. In a higher-rate environment, investors have more options to earn interest today, which puts pressure on high-growth stocks’ valuations.</p><p><blockquote>出于几个原因，较高的收益率对估值高、快速增长的公司的伤害比其他公司更大。第一，它们使融资增长更加昂贵。第二，高增长公司预计将在未来产生大部分现金。与利率低时相比，利率高时现金的价值较低。在利率较高的环境下，投资者如今有更多赚取利息的选择，这给高增长股票的估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>A Friday dip, however,doesn’t mean the end&nbsp;of the bull market in Tesla, EV stocks or the Nasdaq. Getting the economy back on its feet is a good thing. Investors just need a chance to adjust to the changing landscape.</p><p><blockquote>然而，周五的下跌并不意味着特斯拉、电动汽车股票或纳斯达克牛市的结束。让经济重新站稳脚跟是件好事。投资者只是需要一个机会来适应不断变化的形势。</blockquote></p><p>“There’s a good chance you, your families and friends will be able to get together in your backyard or in your neighborhood and have a cookout …and celebrate Independence Day,” Biden said. That is great news.</p><p><blockquote>拜登说：“你、你的家人和朋友很有可能能够在你的后院或附近聚会，野餐……庆祝独立日。”这是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-is-down-you-could-blame-joe-biden-51615557806?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-is-down-you-could-blame-joe-biden-51615557806?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100128328","content_text":"Stock inTesla is lower after CNBC reported that the electric-vehicle company had a firein its Fremont, Calif. plant, but the blaze probably isn’t the reason for the dip.Fires are just a normal, albeit unfortunate, operating problem for any manufacturer. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the fire or the damage it may have caused.President Joe Biden is probably responsible for the share-price decline, which left the stock about 2.7% lower in premarket trading, at about $680. It has beena wild weekfor Tesla stockholders. Shares started off the week at about $675,traded above $700and fell to about $560 before bounding back, up 4.7% Thursday, to just under $700.Nothing Tesla has done appears to be the reason for the recent volatility. It’s all about interest rates.That is where the president comes into the picture. Thursday evening, he addressed the nation, focusing on putting Covid-19 in the rearview mirror a year after the World Health Organization declared that a pandemic had begun.“All adult Americans will be eligible to get a vaccine no later than May 1,” said the president, adding the federal government is setting up hundreds of vaccination sites and procuring millions more vaccine doses.It’s good news, but the market is selling off Friday morning. For stocks, the speech represents almost too much of a good thing. The economy is reopening and, as a result,bond yields are rising, putting pressure on high-growth stocks.Futures on the Nasdaq Composite Index, home to many highflying tech stocks, are down 1.6%.Dow Jones Industrial Averagefutures, on the other hand, are flat.Higher yields hurt richly valued, fast-growing companies more than others for a couple of reasons. One, they makes funding growth more expensive. Two, high- growth companies are expected generate most of their cash far in the future. That cash is a little less valuable in present terms when rates are high, compared with when rates are low. In a higher-rate environment, investors have more options to earn interest today, which puts pressure on high-growth stocks’ valuations.A Friday dip, however,doesn’t mean the end of the bull market in Tesla, EV stocks or the Nasdaq. Getting the economy back on its feet is a good thing. Investors just need a chance to adjust to the changing landscape.“There’s a good chance you, your families and friends will be able to get together in your backyard or in your neighborhood and have a cookout …and celebrate Independence Day,” Biden said. That is great news.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329582371,"gmtCreate":1615258853293,"gmtModify":1703486381157,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Have trust in Cathie...?&nbsp;","listText":"Have trust in Cathie...?&nbsp;","text":"Have trust in Cathie...?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329582371","repostId":"1155746710","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347732336,"gmtCreate":1618530133525,"gmtModify":1634292348038,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"PLTR all the way!&nbsp;","listText":"PLTR all the way!&nbsp;","text":"PLTR all the way!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347732336","repostId":"1181372898","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193791116,"gmtCreate":1620817258735,"gmtModify":1634196099810,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Liars!&nbsp;","listText":"Liars!&nbsp;","text":"Liars!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193791116","repostId":"1174599088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174599088","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620814183,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174599088?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-12 18:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点：华尔街的“弥天大谎”：越来越令人难以置信的业绩声明</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174599088","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?I’m referring to a propaganda technique of ma","content":"<p><b>So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?</b>I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies are dismissed, but big lies are believed.</p><p><blockquote><b>所以你认为让你的钱翻10倍很容易？</b>我指的是一种宣传技巧，这种技巧使声明如此离谱，以至于人们认为它们一定有一定的真实性。小谎言被驳回，但大谎言被相信。</blockquote></p><p>Consider this bit of clickbait in my inbox that caught my eye over the weekend: <i>“</i>Easily 10x your Money with this Cryptocurrency.” One reason it got my attention is that it was written by an individual who three months ago wrote a similar attention-grabbing piece entitled “100x Your Money With This Cryptocurrency.”</p><p><blockquote>想想我收件箱中的这个点击诱饵，它在周末引起了我的注意：<i>“</i>使用这种加密货币，您的钱可以轻松增加10倍。”它引起我注意的一个原因是，它是由一个人写的，他三个月前写了一篇类似的引人注目的文章，题为“用这种加密货币让你的钱增加100倍”。</blockquote></p><p>The particular cryptocurrency he was championing in February is 13% lower today.</p><p><blockquote>他在2月份倡导的特定加密货币今天下跌了13%。</blockquote></p><p>For the record, I have no idea whether this individual was intentionally bending the truth. But the fact remains that no one produces long-term annualized returns in excess of percentages in the low double digits, whether for stocks or investments like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道这个人是否故意歪曲事实。但事实仍然是，无论是股票还是比特币和其他加密货币等投资，没有人能产生超过两位数百分比的长期年化回报率。</blockquote></p><p>No one. To claim that producing a 10x or a 100x return is “easy” is the functional equivalent of lying—even if the claim’s perpetrators don’t intend it to be.</p><p><blockquote>没有人。声称产生10倍或100倍的回报“很容易”在功能上相当于撒谎——即使这种说法的实施者并不打算这样做。</blockquote></p><p>That’s not to say that triple or even quadruple-digit returns aren’t occasionally—very occasionally—produced. But so are jackpots in Vegas. Because strategies that have even the potential of producing short-term gains that big are extraordinarily risky, regression to the mean will inevitably and quickly bring such returns back down to earth.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说三位数甚至四位数的回报不会偶尔——非常偶尔——产生。但拉斯维加斯的累积奖金也是如此。因为即使有可能产生如此大的短期收益的策略也是非常危险的，回归均值将不可避免地迅速将这种回报带回现实。</blockquote></p><p>Consider the evidence from my four decades of tracking the performance of investment newsletters. The accompanying chart reports the portfolio returns among monitored newsletters that are the highest over various holding periods. Over the last 12 months, the scoreboard-topping return is 248%. Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>想想我四十年来跟踪投资通讯表现的证据。随附的图表报告了在不同持有期内受监控的时事通讯中最高的投资组合回报。过去12个月，记分牌最高的回报率为248%。相比之下，将持有期延长至过去五年，记分牌顶部的回报率要低得多，年化回报率为33%。</blockquote></p><p>This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>如图所示，随着持有期的延长，这种下降趋势仍在继续。当我们关注过去40年时，现在的最佳年化回报率为14.0%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e72f13ee9de2c745913ad0debd3b6c0\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.</p><p><blockquote>不要以为这种模式是投资通讯行业独有的。共同基金和对冲基金也出现了几乎相同的结果。</blockquote></p><p>The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”</p><p><blockquote>据我所知，记录最好的长期回报是由Renaissance Technologies的私人奖章基金产生的。加州大学洛杉矶分校名誉教授Brad Cornell报告称，该基金在1988年至2018年间的年化回报率（扣除费用后）为39.2%，而标普500指数的年化回报率为10.0%，该基金的回报率远好于华尔街的任何人康奈尔承认“目瞪口呆”；他说，这种回归在功能上相当于“太阳从西边升起”。</blockquote></p><p>And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>然而，请注意，令人难以置信的大奖章基金的年化回报率“仅”为39%。这距离加密货币“轻松”100倍回报还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p>If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是婴儿潮一代，你已经知道并接受了这些教训。相比之下，如果你来自Z世代，艰难的学校还没有教你这些课程。</blockquote></p><p>I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.</p><p><blockquote>一个月前，我专门写了一篇专栏文章，探讨了牛市后期年龄与冒险行为之间的相关性。在最年轻的投资者经历第一次重大熊市之前，他们都是无所畏惧的冒险家，坚信赚钱很容易。经历过一次或多次严重熊市的老年投资者年龄更大、更明智。</blockquote></p><p>This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)</p><p><blockquote>这种对比在GamblersPick最近的一份报告中再次得到证实，GamblersPick是一个评论在线赌场的网站。该网站调查了872名投资者的风险承受能力；受访者在下表所列的四代人中几乎平分秋色。（未反映在表中的百分比中的那些人的余额表明他们是“中性的”，既不容忍风险也不厌恶风险。）</blockquote></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Generation</td><td>Risk-tolerant</td><td>Risk-averse</td></tr><tr><td>Gen Z</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Millennials</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>Gen X</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>Baby boomers and older</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>代</td><td>风险承受能力</td><td>规避风险</td></tr><tr><td>Z世代</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>千禧一代</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>X世代</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>婴儿潮一代及老年人</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>根据我的经验，再多的学术教育（“书本学习”）也无法完全替代从熊市中实际生活中学到的东西。这意味着今天能够承受风险的年轻投资者有一天会成为我们其他人今天看起来的老古董。</blockquote></p><p>In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，他们和市场都如履薄冰。虽然我们不知道未来几个月牛市的故事将如何展开，但我们确实知道它最终将如何结束。</blockquote></p><p>It’s not a happy one.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一个快乐的故事。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点：华尔街的“弥天大谎”：越来越令人难以置信的业绩声明</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点：华尔街的“弥天大谎”：越来越令人难以置信的业绩声明</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-12 18:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?</b>I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies are dismissed, but big lies are believed.</p><p><blockquote><b>所以你认为让你的钱翻10倍很容易？</b>我指的是一种宣传技巧，这种技巧使声明如此离谱，以至于人们认为它们一定有一定的真实性。小谎言被驳回，但大谎言被相信。</blockquote></p><p>Consider this bit of clickbait in my inbox that caught my eye over the weekend: <i>“</i>Easily 10x your Money with this Cryptocurrency.” One reason it got my attention is that it was written by an individual who three months ago wrote a similar attention-grabbing piece entitled “100x Your Money With This Cryptocurrency.”</p><p><blockquote>想想我收件箱中的这个点击诱饵，它在周末引起了我的注意：<i>“</i>使用这种加密货币，您的钱可以轻松增加10倍。”它引起我注意的一个原因是，它是由一个人写的，他三个月前写了一篇类似的引人注目的文章，题为“用这种加密货币让你的钱增加100倍”。</blockquote></p><p>The particular cryptocurrency he was championing in February is 13% lower today.</p><p><blockquote>他在2月份倡导的特定加密货币今天下跌了13%。</blockquote></p><p>For the record, I have no idea whether this individual was intentionally bending the truth. But the fact remains that no one produces long-term annualized returns in excess of percentages in the low double digits, whether for stocks or investments like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道这个人是否故意歪曲事实。但事实仍然是，无论是股票还是比特币和其他加密货币等投资，没有人能产生超过两位数百分比的长期年化回报率。</blockquote></p><p>No one. To claim that producing a 10x or a 100x return is “easy” is the functional equivalent of lying—even if the claim’s perpetrators don’t intend it to be.</p><p><blockquote>没有人。声称产生10倍或100倍的回报“很容易”在功能上相当于撒谎——即使这种说法的实施者并不打算这样做。</blockquote></p><p>That’s not to say that triple or even quadruple-digit returns aren’t occasionally—very occasionally—produced. But so are jackpots in Vegas. Because strategies that have even the potential of producing short-term gains that big are extraordinarily risky, regression to the mean will inevitably and quickly bring such returns back down to earth.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说三位数甚至四位数的回报不会偶尔——非常偶尔——产生。但拉斯维加斯的累积奖金也是如此。因为即使有可能产生如此大的短期收益的策略也是非常危险的，回归均值将不可避免地迅速将这种回报带回现实。</blockquote></p><p>Consider the evidence from my four decades of tracking the performance of investment newsletters. The accompanying chart reports the portfolio returns among monitored newsletters that are the highest over various holding periods. Over the last 12 months, the scoreboard-topping return is 248%. Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>想想我四十年来跟踪投资通讯表现的证据。随附的图表报告了在不同持有期内受监控的时事通讯中最高的投资组合回报。过去12个月，记分牌最高的回报率为248%。相比之下，将持有期延长至过去五年，记分牌顶部的回报率要低得多，年化回报率为33%。</blockquote></p><p>This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>如图所示，随着持有期的延长，这种下降趋势仍在继续。当我们关注过去40年时，现在的最佳年化回报率为14.0%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e72f13ee9de2c745913ad0debd3b6c0\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.</p><p><blockquote>不要以为这种模式是投资通讯行业独有的。共同基金和对冲基金也出现了几乎相同的结果。</blockquote></p><p>The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”</p><p><blockquote>据我所知，记录最好的长期回报是由Renaissance Technologies的私人奖章基金产生的。加州大学洛杉矶分校名誉教授Brad Cornell报告称，该基金在1988年至2018年间的年化回报率（扣除费用后）为39.2%，而标普500指数的年化回报率为10.0%，该基金的回报率远好于华尔街的任何人康奈尔承认“目瞪口呆”；他说，这种回归在功能上相当于“太阳从西边升起”。</blockquote></p><p>And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>然而，请注意，令人难以置信的大奖章基金的年化回报率“仅”为39%。这距离加密货币“轻松”100倍回报还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p>If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是婴儿潮一代，你已经知道并接受了这些教训。相比之下，如果你来自Z世代，艰难的学校还没有教你这些课程。</blockquote></p><p>I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.</p><p><blockquote>一个月前，我专门写了一篇专栏文章，探讨了牛市后期年龄与冒险行为之间的相关性。在最年轻的投资者经历第一次重大熊市之前，他们都是无所畏惧的冒险家，坚信赚钱很容易。经历过一次或多次严重熊市的老年投资者年龄更大、更明智。</blockquote></p><p>This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)</p><p><blockquote>这种对比在GamblersPick最近的一份报告中再次得到证实，GamblersPick是一个评论在线赌场的网站。该网站调查了872名投资者的风险承受能力；受访者在下表所列的四代人中几乎平分秋色。（未反映在表中的百分比中的那些人的余额表明他们是“中性的”，既不容忍风险也不厌恶风险。）</blockquote></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Generation</td><td>Risk-tolerant</td><td>Risk-averse</td></tr><tr><td>Gen Z</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Millennials</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>Gen X</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>Baby boomers and older</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>代</td><td>风险承受能力</td><td>规避风险</td></tr><tr><td>Z世代</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>千禧一代</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>X世代</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>婴儿潮一代及老年人</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>根据我的经验，再多的学术教育（“书本学习”）也无法完全替代从熊市中实际生活中学到的东西。这意味着今天能够承受风险的年轻投资者有一天会成为我们其他人今天看起来的老古董。</blockquote></p><p>In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，他们和市场都如履薄冰。虽然我们不知道未来几个月牛市的故事将如何展开，但我们确实知道它最终将如何结束。</blockquote></p><p>It’s not a happy one.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一个快乐的故事。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-big-lie-performance-claims-that-are-increasingly-straining-credulity-11620680630?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-big-lie-performance-claims-that-are-increasingly-straining-credulity-11620680630?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174599088","content_text":"So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies are dismissed, but big lies are believed.Consider this bit of clickbait in my inbox that caught my eye over the weekend: “Easily 10x your Money with this Cryptocurrency.” One reason it got my attention is that it was written by an individual who three months ago wrote a similar attention-grabbing piece entitled “100x Your Money With This Cryptocurrency.”The particular cryptocurrency he was championing in February is 13% lower today.For the record, I have no idea whether this individual was intentionally bending the truth. But the fact remains that no one produces long-term annualized returns in excess of percentages in the low double digits, whether for stocks or investments like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.No one. To claim that producing a 10x or a 100x return is “easy” is the functional equivalent of lying—even if the claim’s perpetrators don’t intend it to be.That’s not to say that triple or even quadruple-digit returns aren’t occasionally—very occasionally—produced. But so are jackpots in Vegas. Because strategies that have even the potential of producing short-term gains that big are extraordinarily risky, regression to the mean will inevitably and quickly bring such returns back down to earth.Consider the evidence from my four decades of tracking the performance of investment newsletters. The accompanying chart reports the portfolio returns among monitored newsletters that are the highest over various holding periods. Over the last 12 months, the scoreboard-topping return is 248%. Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&P 500 index That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)GenerationRisk-tolerantRisk-averseGen Z57%25%Millennials49%32%Gen X38%44%Baby boomers and older36%46%In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.It’s not a happy one.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107893564,"gmtCreate":1620460402858,"gmtModify":1634198573889,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575073792751116","authorIdStr":"3575073792751116"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crypto all the way","listText":"Crypto all the way","text":"Crypto all the way","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107893564","repostId":"1122089368","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122089368","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620457397,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122089368?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 15:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122089368","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are t","content":"<p>To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>对于金融泡沫的老手来说，现在有很多熟悉的东西。股票估值是自2000年互联网泡沫以来最高的。房价回到了金融危机前的峰值。高风险公司可以以有记录以来的最低利率借款。个人投资者正在向绿色能源和加密货币投入资金。</blockquote></p><p>This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.</p><p><blockquote>这种繁荣有一些合理的解释，从数字商务的进步到可能是1983年以来最强劲的财政增长。</blockquote></p><p>But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>但最重要的是一个驱动因素：美联储。宽松的货币政策经常推动金融繁荣，现在尤其容易。美联储在过去一年中将利率维持在接近零的水平，并暗示利率至少在两年内不会改变。它正在购买数千亿美元的债券。因此，10年期国债收益率远低于通胀——即实际收益率深度为负——这是40年来的第二次。</blockquote></p><p>There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.</p><p><blockquote>利率如此之低是有充分理由的。美联储采取行动是为了应对一场疫情，这场疫情在最严重的时候可能造成的损害甚至比2007-09年的金融危机还要大。然而，这在很大程度上要归功于美联储和国会通过了约5万亿美元的财政刺激计划，这次复苏看起来比上次要健康得多。这可能会削弱利率如此之低的原因，威胁市场的基础。</blockquote></p><p>“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>与现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔一起担任美联储理事的哈佛大学经济学家杰里米·斯坦表示：“假设利率将长期处于低位，股市的定价至少是完美的。”“当然，你会感觉到美联储非常努力地说，‘一切都很好，我们不急于加息。’但虽然我不认为我们会走向持续的高通胀，但这是完全有可能的。我们将有几个季度的通胀热点数据。”</blockquote></p><p>Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”</p><p><blockquote>他问道，由于只有在利率保持极低水平的情况下，股票估值才是合理的，因此如果美联储不得不收紧货币政策以对抗通胀并且债券收益率上升1至1.5个百分点，股票如何重新定价。“资产价格可能会出现严重调整。”</blockquote></p><p><b>‘A bit frothy’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“有点泡沫”</b></blockquote></p><p>The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.</p><p><blockquote>美联储以前也来过这里。20世纪90年代末，为了应对亚洲金融危机和对冲基金长期资本管理公司几近崩溃，它愿意降息，这被一些人视为隐性的市场支持，助长了随后的互联网泡沫。泡沫破裂后的低利率政策被指责推高了房价。两次美联储官员都为自己的政策辩护，认为仅仅为了防止泡沫而加息（或不降息）会损害他们低失业率和通胀的主要目标，而且比让泡沫自行破灭造成的危害更大。</blockquote></p><p>As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.</p><p><blockquote>至于今年，央行在本周的一份报告中警告称，资产“估值普遍较高”，“如果投资者风险偏好下降、遏制病毒进展令人失望或复苏停滞，资产估值很容易大幅下跌”。4月28日，鲍威尔承认市场看起来“有点泡沫”，美联储可能是原因之一：“我不会说这与货币政策无关，但它与疫苗接种有很大关系和经济重新开放。”但他没有暗示美联储将缩减刺激措施：“经济距离我们的目标还有很长的路要走。”劳工部周五的一份报告显示，4月份创造的就业机会远低于华尔街的预期，这突显了这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储的选择深受金融危机的影响。尽管美联储当时将利率降至接近零的水平并购买了债券，但随着家庭、银行和政府寻求偿还债务，美联储正面临强大的阻力。这抑制了支出，并将通胀率推至美联储2%的目标以下。人口老龄化等深层次力量也抑制了经济增长和利率，一些人将这种组合称为“长期停滞”。</blockquote></p><p>The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>一年前的疫情关闭引发了对经济产出的打击，最初比金融危机还要严重。但两个月后，随着限制放松和企业适应社交距离，经济活动开始复苏。美联储启动了新的贷款计划，国会通过了2.2万亿美元的Cares法案。疫苗比预期的更早到达。美国经济可能会在本季度达到大流行前的规模，比金融危机后快两年。</blockquote></p><p>And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，即使前景有所改善，财政和货币的水龙头仍然敞开着。去年5月，民主党人首次提出额外3万亿美元的刺激计划，当时预计去年产出将下降6%。实际上下降了不到一半，但民主党在赢得白宫和国会后，继续推进同样规模的刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于2020年3月开始购买债券，以应对市场的混乱状况。夏末，随着市场正常运转，它延长了该计划，同时将理由转向保持低债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，它公布了一个新框架：在通胀率多年低于2%之后，它的目标是将通胀率不仅推回到2%，而且更高，以便随着时间的推移，平均通胀率和预期通胀率都稳定在2%。为此，它承诺在充分就业恢复、通胀率达到2%并走高之前不会加息。官员们预测这种情况在2024年之前不会发生，尽管前景显着改善，但此后仍坚持这一指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Running of the bulls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奔牛节</b></blockquote></p><p>This injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&amp;P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的一项调查显示，向因疫苗接种而已经反弹的经济注入前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施，这就是华尔街策略师自上次金融危机前以来最看好股市的原因。虽然盈利预测大幅上升，但股市涨幅更大。根据FactSet的数据，标普500股票指数目前的交易价格约为来年利润的22倍，这一水平仅在2000年互联网繁荣的顶峰时期才超过。</blockquote></p><p>Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.</p><p><blockquote>其他资产市场也同样捉襟见肘。根据彭博巴克莱的数据，投资者愿意以至少1995年以来的最低收益率以及自2007年以来与安全国债的最窄利差购买垃圾级公司的债券。经通胀调整后，住宅和商业地产价格接近2006年达到的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.</p><p><blockquote>今天的股票和房地产估值比2000年或2006年更加合理，因为无风险国债的回报率要低得多。从这个意义上说，美联储的政策完全按照预期发挥作用：改善经济前景，这有利于利润、住房需求和企业信誉；和风险偏好。</blockquote></p><p>Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，低利率不再足以证明某些资产估值的合理性。相反，多头会调用替代指标。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近指出，碳排放量相对较低、用水效率较高的公司估值较高。这些估值并不是优越的现金流或利润前景的结果，而是根据环境、社会和治理（ESG）标准投资的资金浪潮。</blockquote></p><p>Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.</p><p><blockquote>对于不赚取利息、租金或股息的加密货币，传统估值也毫无用处。相反，倡导者声称数字货币将取代央行发行的法定货币作为交易媒介和价值储存手段。“加密货币有可能像互联网一样具有革命性并被广泛采用，”加密货币交易所Coinbase GlobalInc.首次公开募股的招股说明书称，其语言让人想起二十多年前与互联网相关的IPO。根据信息服务机构CoinDesk的数据，截至4月29日，加密货币的价值超过2万亿美元，大致相当于所有流通中的美元。</blockquote></p><p>Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>金融创新也在发挥作用，就像过去的金融繁荣一样。投资组合保险是一种旨在对冲市场损失的策略，在1987年股市崩盘期间放大了抛售。20世纪90年代，互联网股票经纪人推动了科技股的上涨，而在21世纪初，次级抵押贷款衍生品帮助为住房融资。今天的等价物是零佣金经纪商，如Robinhood Markets Inc.、部分所有权和社交媒体，所有这些都赋予了个人投资者权力。</blockquote></p><p>Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&amp;P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据世界各国央行组成的财团国际清算银行最近的一份报告，此类投资者越来越多地影响整体市场的走向。例如，它发现，自2017年以来，跟踪机构投资者最喜欢的标普500的交易所交易基金的交易量已经持平，而个人投资者更喜欢的成分股的交易量却在攀升。报告指出，个人更有可能出于与其基础业务无关的原因购买一家公司的股票，例如，因为该公司的名称与另一只正在上涨的股票相似。</blockquote></p><p>While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种猜测经常被归咎于美联储，但很难划清界限。财政刺激则不然。金融研究公司Bianco Research的负责人Jim Bianco表示，随着财政部发放1400美元的刺激支票，3月份流入交易所交易基金和共同基金的资金激增。“你用支票做的第一件事就是将其存入你的账户，到2021年，这就是你的经纪账户，”比安科先生说。</blockquote></p><p><b>Facing the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>面向未来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>It’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.</p><p><blockquote>无法预测这一切将如何结束，甚至是否会结束。事实并非如此：高价股票最终可能会赚取必要的利润来证明当今的估值是合理的，尤其是在经济目前处于领先地位的情况下。与此同时，随着利润令人失望或竞争的出现，更极端的投机领域可能会在自身压力下崩溃。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.</p><p><blockquote>比特币曾威胁要取代美元；现在，许多竞争对手也声称要做同样的事情。特斯拉公司曾经是你唯一可以购买来押注电动汽车的股票；现在有蔚来、NikolaCorp.和FiskerInc.，更不用说大众汽车公司和通用汽车公司等老牌制造商正在推出越来越多的电动车型。</blockquote></p><p>But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.</p><p><blockquote>但资产全面下跌可能涉及某种宏观经济事件，例如经济衰退、金融危机或通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上周的报告称，该病毒仍然是对经济乃至金融体系的最大威胁。4月份的就业令人失望提醒人们经济前景仍然多么不稳定。尽管如此，随着病毒的消退，经济衰退现在似乎不太可能发生。不能排除与某种隐藏的脆弱性相关的金融危机。尽管如此，银行拥有如此多的资本，而抵押贷款承销又如此紧张，以至于类似于2007-09年始于抵押贷款违约的金融危机似乎很遥远。如果垃圾债券、加密货币或科技股主要是用借来的钱购买的，其价值暴跌可能会引发一波强制抛售、破产和潜在的危机。但这似乎并没有发生。Archegos Capital Management最近因衍生品股票投资逆转而倒闭，给其贷方造成了损失。但这并没有威胁到他们的生存，也没有引发对处境相似的公司的蔓延。</blockquote></p><p>“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”</p><p><blockquote>“第二个阿尔奇戈斯在哪里？”比安科先生说。“还没有。”</blockquote></p><p>That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>这就剩下通货膨胀了。由于半导体、木材和工人的短缺都给价格和成本带来了上行压力，对通胀的担忧现在很普遍。大多数预测者和美联储认为，一旦经济重新开放和正常支出模式恢复，这些压力将会缓解。尽管如此，常规债券收益率和通胀指数债券收益率之间的差异表明，投资者预计未来几年的通胀率平均约为2.5%。这很难是20世纪70年代的重演，也符合美联储长期平均通胀率2%的新目标。尽管如此，这将明显打破过去十年低于2%的区间。</blockquote></p><p>Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw &amp; Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.</p><p><blockquote>通胀略高将导致美联储将短期利率也略高，这不一定会损害股票估值。更令人担忧的是：对股票价值至关重要的长期债券收益率可能会大幅上升。自20世纪90年代末以来，债券和股票价格往往朝着相反的方向波动。这是因为当通胀不是问题时，经济冲击往往会压低债券收益率（与价格走势相反）和股票价格。因此，债券充当了抵御股票损失的保险政策，投资者愿意接受较低的收益率。如果通货膨胀再次成为一个问题，那么债券就会失去保险价值，其收益率就会上升。前美联储经济学家、现就职于对冲基金D.E.的布莱恩·萨克(Brian Sack)表示，近几个月来，过去几十年大部分时间里存在的股债相关性开始消失。肖公司。他将此部分归因于通胀担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，通货膨胀主导了金融领域，这导致投资者对资产定价，就好像通货膨胀再也不会产生这种影响一样。他们可能是对的。但如果史无前例的货币和财政刺激组合成功地使经济摆脱了过去十年的模式，这种自满可能会付出相当大的代价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 15:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>对于金融泡沫的老手来说，现在有很多熟悉的东西。股票估值是自2000年互联网泡沫以来最高的。房价回到了金融危机前的峰值。高风险公司可以以有记录以来的最低利率借款。个人投资者正在向绿色能源和加密货币投入资金。</blockquote></p><p>This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.</p><p><blockquote>这种繁荣有一些合理的解释，从数字商务的进步到可能是1983年以来最强劲的财政增长。</blockquote></p><p>But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>但最重要的是一个驱动因素：美联储。宽松的货币政策经常推动金融繁荣，现在尤其容易。美联储在过去一年中将利率维持在接近零的水平，并暗示利率至少在两年内不会改变。它正在购买数千亿美元的债券。因此，10年期国债收益率远低于通胀——即实际收益率深度为负——这是40年来的第二次。</blockquote></p><p>There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.</p><p><blockquote>利率如此之低是有充分理由的。美联储采取行动是为了应对一场疫情，这场疫情在最严重的时候可能造成的损害甚至比2007-09年的金融危机还要大。然而，这在很大程度上要归功于美联储和国会通过了约5万亿美元的财政刺激计划，这次复苏看起来比上次要健康得多。这可能会削弱利率如此之低的原因，威胁市场的基础。</blockquote></p><p>“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>与现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔一起担任美联储理事的哈佛大学经济学家杰里米·斯坦表示：“假设利率将长期处于低位，股市的定价至少是完美的。”“当然，你会感觉到美联储非常努力地说，‘一切都很好，我们不急于加息。’但虽然我不认为我们会走向持续的高通胀，但这是完全有可能的。我们将有几个季度的通胀热点数据。”</blockquote></p><p>Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”</p><p><blockquote>他问道，由于只有在利率保持极低水平的情况下，股票估值才是合理的，因此如果美联储不得不收紧货币政策以对抗通胀并且债券收益率上升1至1.5个百分点，股票如何重新定价。“资产价格可能会出现严重调整。”</blockquote></p><p><b>‘A bit frothy’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“有点泡沫”</b></blockquote></p><p>The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.</p><p><blockquote>美联储以前也来过这里。20世纪90年代末，为了应对亚洲金融危机和对冲基金长期资本管理公司几近崩溃，它愿意降息，这被一些人视为隐性的市场支持，助长了随后的互联网泡沫。泡沫破裂后的低利率政策被指责推高了房价。两次美联储官员都为自己的政策辩护，认为仅仅为了防止泡沫而加息（或不降息）会损害他们低失业率和通胀的主要目标，而且比让泡沫自行破灭造成的危害更大。</blockquote></p><p>As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.</p><p><blockquote>至于今年，央行在本周的一份报告中警告称，资产“估值普遍较高”，“如果投资者风险偏好下降、遏制病毒进展令人失望或复苏停滞，资产估值很容易大幅下跌”。4月28日，鲍威尔承认市场看起来“有点泡沫”，美联储可能是原因之一：“我不会说这与货币政策无关，但它与疫苗接种有很大关系和经济重新开放。”但他没有暗示美联储将缩减刺激措施：“经济距离我们的目标还有很长的路要走。”劳工部周五的一份报告显示，4月份创造的就业机会远低于华尔街的预期，这突显了这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储的选择深受金融危机的影响。尽管美联储当时将利率降至接近零的水平并购买了债券，但随着家庭、银行和政府寻求偿还债务，美联储正面临强大的阻力。这抑制了支出，并将通胀率推至美联储2%的目标以下。人口老龄化等深层次力量也抑制了经济增长和利率，一些人将这种组合称为“长期停滞”。</blockquote></p><p>The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>一年前的疫情关闭引发了对经济产出的打击，最初比金融危机还要严重。但两个月后，随着限制放松和企业适应社交距离，经济活动开始复苏。美联储启动了新的贷款计划，国会通过了2.2万亿美元的Cares法案。疫苗比预期的更早到达。美国经济可能会在本季度达到大流行前的规模，比金融危机后快两年。</blockquote></p><p>And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，即使前景有所改善，财政和货币的水龙头仍然敞开着。去年5月，民主党人首次提出额外3万亿美元的刺激计划，当时预计去年产出将下降6%。实际上下降了不到一半，但民主党在赢得白宫和国会后，继续推进同样规模的刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于2020年3月开始购买债券，以应对市场的混乱状况。夏末，随着市场正常运转，它延长了该计划，同时将理由转向保持低债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，它公布了一个新框架：在通胀率多年低于2%之后，它的目标是将通胀率不仅推回到2%，而且更高，以便随着时间的推移，平均通胀率和预期通胀率都稳定在2%。为此，它承诺在充分就业恢复、通胀率达到2%并走高之前不会加息。官员们预测这种情况在2024年之前不会发生，尽管前景显着改善，但此后仍坚持这一指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Running of the bulls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奔牛节</b></blockquote></p><p>This injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&amp;P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的一项调查显示，向因疫苗接种而已经反弹的经济注入前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施，这就是华尔街策略师自上次金融危机前以来最看好股市的原因。虽然盈利预测大幅上升，但股市涨幅更大。根据FactSet的数据，标普500股票指数目前的交易价格约为来年利润的22倍，这一水平仅在2000年互联网繁荣的顶峰时期才超过。</blockquote></p><p>Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.</p><p><blockquote>其他资产市场也同样捉襟见肘。根据彭博巴克莱的数据，投资者愿意以至少1995年以来的最低收益率以及自2007年以来与安全国债的最窄利差购买垃圾级公司的债券。经通胀调整后，住宅和商业地产价格接近2006年达到的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.</p><p><blockquote>今天的股票和房地产估值比2000年或2006年更加合理，因为无风险国债的回报率要低得多。从这个意义上说，美联储的政策完全按照预期发挥作用：改善经济前景，这有利于利润、住房需求和企业信誉；和风险偏好。</blockquote></p><p>Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，低利率不再足以证明某些资产估值的合理性。相反，多头会调用替代指标。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近指出，碳排放量相对较低、用水效率较高的公司估值较高。这些估值并不是优越的现金流或利润前景的结果，而是根据环境、社会和治理（ESG）标准投资的资金浪潮。</blockquote></p><p>Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.</p><p><blockquote>对于不赚取利息、租金或股息的加密货币，传统估值也毫无用处。相反，倡导者声称数字货币将取代央行发行的法定货币作为交易媒介和价值储存手段。“加密货币有可能像互联网一样具有革命性并被广泛采用，”加密货币交易所Coinbase GlobalInc.首次公开募股的招股说明书称，其语言让人想起二十多年前与互联网相关的IPO。根据信息服务机构CoinDesk的数据，截至4月29日，加密货币的价值超过2万亿美元，大致相当于所有流通中的美元。</blockquote></p><p>Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>金融创新也在发挥作用，就像过去的金融繁荣一样。投资组合保险是一种旨在对冲市场损失的策略，在1987年股市崩盘期间放大了抛售。20世纪90年代，互联网股票经纪人推动了科技股的上涨，而在21世纪初，次级抵押贷款衍生品帮助为住房融资。今天的等价物是零佣金经纪商，如Robinhood Markets Inc.、部分所有权和社交媒体，所有这些都赋予了个人投资者权力。</blockquote></p><p>Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&amp;P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据世界各国央行组成的财团国际清算银行最近的一份报告，此类投资者越来越多地影响整体市场的走向。例如，它发现，自2017年以来，跟踪机构投资者最喜欢的标普500的交易所交易基金的交易量已经持平，而个人投资者更喜欢的成分股的交易量却在攀升。报告指出，个人更有可能出于与其基础业务无关的原因购买一家公司的股票，例如，因为该公司的名称与另一只正在上涨的股票相似。</blockquote></p><p>While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种猜测经常被归咎于美联储，但很难划清界限。财政刺激则不然。金融研究公司Bianco Research的负责人Jim Bianco表示，随着财政部发放1400美元的刺激支票，3月份流入交易所交易基金和共同基金的资金激增。“你用支票做的第一件事就是将其存入你的账户，到2021年，这就是你的经纪账户，”比安科先生说。</blockquote></p><p><b>Facing the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>面向未来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>It’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.</p><p><blockquote>无法预测这一切将如何结束，甚至是否会结束。事实并非如此：高价股票最终可能会赚取必要的利润来证明当今的估值是合理的，尤其是在经济目前处于领先地位的情况下。与此同时，随着利润令人失望或竞争的出现，更极端的投机领域可能会在自身压力下崩溃。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.</p><p><blockquote>比特币曾威胁要取代美元；现在，许多竞争对手也声称要做同样的事情。特斯拉公司曾经是你唯一可以购买来押注电动汽车的股票；现在有蔚来、NikolaCorp.和FiskerInc.，更不用说大众汽车公司和通用汽车公司等老牌制造商正在推出越来越多的电动车型。</blockquote></p><p>But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.</p><p><blockquote>但资产全面下跌可能涉及某种宏观经济事件，例如经济衰退、金融危机或通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上周的报告称，该病毒仍然是对经济乃至金融体系的最大威胁。4月份的就业令人失望提醒人们经济前景仍然多么不稳定。尽管如此，随着病毒的消退，经济衰退现在似乎不太可能发生。不能排除与某种隐藏的脆弱性相关的金融危机。尽管如此，银行拥有如此多的资本，而抵押贷款承销又如此紧张，以至于类似于2007-09年始于抵押贷款违约的金融危机似乎很遥远。如果垃圾债券、加密货币或科技股主要是用借来的钱购买的，其价值暴跌可能会引发一波强制抛售、破产和潜在的危机。但这似乎并没有发生。Archegos Capital Management最近因衍生品股票投资逆转而倒闭，给其贷方造成了损失。但这并没有威胁到他们的生存，也没有引发对处境相似的公司的蔓延。</blockquote></p><p>“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”</p><p><blockquote>“第二个阿尔奇戈斯在哪里？”比安科先生说。“还没有。”</blockquote></p><p>That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>这就剩下通货膨胀了。由于半导体、木材和工人的短缺都给价格和成本带来了上行压力，对通胀的担忧现在很普遍。大多数预测者和美联储认为，一旦经济重新开放和正常支出模式恢复，这些压力将会缓解。尽管如此，常规债券收益率和通胀指数债券收益率之间的差异表明，投资者预计未来几年的通胀率平均约为2.5%。这很难是20世纪70年代的重演，也符合美联储长期平均通胀率2%的新目标。尽管如此，这将明显打破过去十年低于2%的区间。</blockquote></p><p>Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw &amp; Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.</p><p><blockquote>通胀略高将导致美联储将短期利率也略高，这不一定会损害股票估值。更令人担忧的是：对股票价值至关重要的长期债券收益率可能会大幅上升。自20世纪90年代末以来，债券和股票价格往往朝着相反的方向波动。这是因为当通胀不是问题时，经济冲击往往会压低债券收益率（与价格走势相反）和股票价格。因此，债券充当了抵御股票损失的保险政策，投资者愿意接受较低的收益率。如果通货膨胀再次成为一个问题，那么债券就会失去保险价值，其收益率就会上升。前美联储经济学家、现就职于对冲基金D.E.的布莱恩·萨克(Brian Sack)表示，近几个月来，过去几十年大部分时间里存在的股债相关性开始消失。肖公司。他将此部分归因于通胀担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，通货膨胀主导了金融领域，这导致投资者对资产定价，就好像通货膨胀再也不会产生这种影响一样。他们可能是对的。但如果史无前例的货币和财政刺激组合成功地使经济摆脱了过去十年的模式，这种自满可能会付出相当大的代价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122089368","content_text":"To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”‘A bit frothy’The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.Running of the bullsThis injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.Facing the futureIt’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}