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2021-07-22

FUD

Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote>

2021-07-22

FUD

Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote>

2021-06-29

Sick..

Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超5%创新高</blockquote>

2021-06-24

Moooon

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-09

Good stuff

2021-06-09

🚀🚀

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-09

🚀

Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>

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15:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192458370","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - ","content":"<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p><p><blockquote>这与本月初的看涨情绪截然不同，当时该行首次正确地指出，S&amp;P正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，7月1日至15日期间公布了一系列新高（在16日和19日抛售之前）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p><p><blockquote>...在对为什么“空头必须回补”进行冗长的合理化解释之后，高盛最近几天出人意料地变得看跌，在高盛流量交易员约翰·弗洛德周一敦促高盛客户“不要逢低买入”两天后（剧透警告：他们做到了），他的交易部门同事斯科特·鲁布纳（Scott Rubner）发表了一份报告，预览了为什么他预计未来几天会出现调整，并将持续到8月底的杰克逊霍尔研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p><p><blockquote>我们在下面摘录他的报告，其中包含高盛8月份“修正”论点背后的关键论点，包括战术性资金流动、卖家加速以及GS股票交易大厅的反馈。</blockquote></p><p> So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p><p><blockquote>所以事不宜迟，下面是鲁布纳，他展示了他的“<b><i>8月份修正的11点清单”</i></b>，首先注意到“<i>过去48小时内我收件箱/IB中出现的第一个问题。当资金外流且购买需求放缓时，股市会发生什么？</i>正如我们在下面读到的，最合适的答案是“没什么好的。”</blockquote></p><p>   <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i>   <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>  <u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p><p><blockquote><i>11点清单-一致的客户反馈，以快速降低股票风险，从而降低杰克逊霍尔的潜在购买需求。共识反馈似乎要求修正-5%，实际上达到了-4%。这是本周即将进入你收件箱的话题的回顾。我认为今天早上的反弹会随着当天早些时候买票的完成而消退。</i><i><b>“逢高卖出”是与逢低买入的新动态。</b></i><u><b>1.季节性疲软</b></u>——自1928年以来，我们刚刚结束了一年中最好的两周时期。周五期权到期结束了一年中最好的季节性时期。<b>八月季节性对市场不利，整个八月呈下降趋势，为一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期</b>.今天你在这里，杰克逊霍尔是这张图表的低点。自1950年以来，72年来，S&amp;P指数有19次在上半年上涨至少超过10%。在强劲的1H之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降-51个基点，然后反弹走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>2.年度最大流出量</b></u>-投资者在7月份向市场分配资金，我们已经看到了这些创纪录的资金流入。这是今年股市最大的动态。资金流入继续以创纪录的速度增长，2021年年流入量为1.2万亿美元。401k资金主要流入S&amp;P和NDX，而不是ROW。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.8月份预测流量的逆转</b></u>——8月份股权流入并不常见。在过去的30年里，<b>八月通常是一年中最大的资金流出</b>.-15个基点的资产管理规模通常会在8月份离开股市基金，我们模拟价值约22万亿美元的股票待售。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>4.流出续。</u></b>需要明确的是，-330亿美元在调整市值后并不是一个重要的数字，但更重要的是它不是流入。鉴于资金流入抬高了最大和最大市值指数权重，该指数水平仍保持在ATHs。周一，我们看到一个巨大的MOC失衡出售，这是不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>5.被动流动推动最大市值</b></u>-仅在今年上半年，被动型ETF就创下了有记录以来最好的全年资金流入。(+500b)。我每天都看录像带记录大量的MOC失衡在美国东部时间下午3:50购买，<b>但是如果这种动力消失了呢？</b>请记住，流入SPDR标普500指数ETF的1美元将流入前5名公司0.23美分，流入QQQ的1美元将流入前5名公司0.41美分。如果流入转为流出，您将不再看到广泛的指数动态。<b>那么投资者需要决定哪个板块成为流出的资金来源。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p><p><blockquote>这对标普500有多重要？重要的！</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>  <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>  <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>  <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>全球股票：1年期：+600B美元被动（入）与0.0 B美元主动（出）=&gt;600B美元。</li><li>全球股票：5年期：+$2.30 T被动（入）vs.-$1.90 T主动（出）=&gt;$4.2 T</li><li>全球股票：10年期：+$4T被动（入）vs.-$3.0 T主动（出）=&gt;$7.0 T</li><li>当前全球股票主动资产管理规模为10.099吨，超过当前全球股票被动资产管理规模7.225吨。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>旁注：ETF占名义执行量的36%，为2020年3月/4月以来的最后水平。（年初至今平均值）=24%。你看到SQQQ周一的巨量（3倍空头QQQ）了吗？</i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>六、单一股票评级</b></u>-这是非常类似于2020年7月和8月看涨期权期权交易的结果吹顶。提醒一下，在看涨期权期权交易量开始消退后，标准普尔在2020年9月抛售了-392个基点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>  <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>  <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>  <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>7月份，Option notional的平均交易量创下了每天+5500亿美元的历史纪录。交易量最大的3只股票（AAPL、AMZN和TSLA）的日交易量为300B美元。期权和股票的广度都很低。</li><li>“在4000份可交易的单一股票期权中，前3名占每日平均名义交易量的56%。加上接下来的7份，这一比例跃升至72%。”</li><li>“换句话说，前10名底层股票平均每天的名义交易量是底部3990点的3倍”</li><li>这是一个需要监控的重要动态。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>7.看涨期权期权续。</b></u>-零售业已从每周在GME和AMC上交易看涨期权期权（每天名义价值仅为6B美元）转向居家策略。每日期权交易量最高的公司也是指数权重最大的公司。除了ETF流量之外，散户看涨期权期权购买狂潮也导致了单一股票的街头空头每周伽马值。今天交易的75%的单一股票期权的到期时间为两周或更短。<b>换句话说，鉴于GS YOLO风险情绪篮子已经滚动，AAPL下一步是否需要赶上（或者至少看不到YOLO流量）。</b></blockquote></p><p> $181bln/day AMZN</p><p><blockquote>1810亿美元/天AMZN</blockquote></p><p> $ 82bln/day TSLA</p><p><blockquote>820亿美元/天TSLA</blockquote></p><p> $ 36bln/day AAPL</p><p><blockquote>360亿美元/天AAPL</blockquote></p><p> --------------</p><p><blockquote>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>TSLA/AMZN/AAPL总额：2990亿美元/天——如果大型科技股的看涨期权交易量下降会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>  <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>  <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>  <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>260亿美元/天NVDA</li><li>140亿美元/天GOOGL</li><li>110亿美元/天FB</li><li>100亿美元/天MSFT</li><li>80亿美元/天的商店</li><li>80亿美元/天GOOG</li><li>80亿美元/天NFLX</li><li>70亿美元/天阿里巴巴</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA总计：900亿美元/天</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>40亿美元/天AMC</li><li>20亿美元/天GME</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC/GME总额：60亿美元/天——没有莫约洛？见下图。</b></blockquote></p><p> All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p><p><blockquote>所有其他基础资产：1410亿美元/天</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>单一股票期权市场总额：</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>  <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>  <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li> </ul> --------------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2990亿美元/天TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li><li>900亿美元/天GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li><li>60亿美元/天AMC/GME</li><li>1410亿美元/天所有其他基础</li></ul>--------------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>$537bln/day Total</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5370亿美元/天总计</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>8.期权Gamma平仓</u></b>-期权到期刚刚下跌-85%的市场多头伽马。市场现在有能力更自由地波动，交易更少的多头伽马。上周的每一天，随着交易商重新对冲他们的伽马（逢低买入），市场都会在收盘时反弹。我担心没有伽马对冲和被动需求的夏季日终流动性。我认为还将有“机构”需求购买杰克逊霍尔对冲基金，消除多头伽马，让华尔街做空以对冲下行。本周我们看到的看跌期权和看跌价差比2021年任何一周都多。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>  <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>  <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>  <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>  <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li> </ul> <b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周三(7/14)SPX gamma=+$4,625 B</li><li>周四(7/15)SPX gamma=+$3,620 B</li><li>周五(7/16)SPX gamma=+$3,136 B</li><li>周一(7/19)SPX gamma=+$2,698 B</li><li>周二(7/20)SPX Gamma=+$713B。</li></ul><b>在过去的5天里，多头标普500伽马减少了-85%，交易商的多头伽马减少了。</b>这种动态改变了市场行为，尽管成交量走高，但我们几乎没有看到系统覆盖的需求。这是新的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>9.系统性</b></u>-非经济风险已经接近最大敞口，并且几乎没有进一步增加的空间。到目前为止，还没有触发阈值水平，但重要的是要注意缺乏从这里添加的能力，这不对称地扭曲了下行方向。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>  <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>  <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>CTA</b>-1年排名90%百分位数，3年排名84%百分位数。</li><li><b>GS型号</b>-下周将出售90亿美元的股票。CTA是处于上涨带、下跌带、下跌大带的卖家。这并不常见。检查未来1个月的下行大不对称。</li><li><b>GS短期CTA ES1翻转电平</b>=$4,257.90.我们昨天跳闸了这个断路器，但是今天上午更高。我预计GS卖出预期会增加。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>b)体积控制-1年等级为86%百分位数，3年等级为75%百分位数。仅供参考。SPX看跌期权/看涨期权比率昨日创下一年新高。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>c)风险平价-1年等级为100%百分位数，3年等级为53%百分位数。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>d)总系统性–1年等级为92%百分位数，3年等级为80%百分位数。这很重要。这种非情绪化的需求是最大的，卖家会更低。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>10.流动资金</b></u>-非官方的Rubner外出展望(OOO)回复表。我上周的笔记是“几周后见”或“去钓鱼”的办公室回扣最多的一周。即将到来的杰克逊霍尔日历很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>  <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>  <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>  <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>  <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li> </ol> *** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>接下来的几周，12个月来首次延长假期，等等，因为杰克逊霍尔提前了。</li><li>杰克逊霍尔，8月26日（星期四）-8月28日（星期六）-周五可能是关键的日历，但周六也可能很重要。这将对冲移至下周。</li><li>劳动节，9月6日（周一交换假期）-今年晚些时候</li><li>大约孩子开学第一天，9月7日（星期二）</li><li>流动性=八月夏季-ZZZZ。在昨天的抛售中，账面流动性大幅下降。</li></ol>***尽管在清单中排名第10。这实际上是图表#1。昨天屏幕上的流动性大幅枯竭。该图表上周一达到3600万美元的峰值，昨天达到1081万美元。这意味着螺丝流动性在一周内下降了2500万美元或约70%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>11.回购</b></u>：回购来了，但股权发行也来了，中和了回购冲动。当公司遇到公司时。来自销售和交易同事John Flood在他最近的交易笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> <i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“这是一场纸面派对，而且这张纸面越来越难放置。上周我们在美国对11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周我们已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月深处尤其值得注意。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>  <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上周股票发行量为62亿美元，而2000年以来7月份每周平均发行量为34亿美元。</li><li>上周有27笔股票交易上市，而自2000年以来7月份平均每周15笔交易。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>底线：</b></i><i>在八月份把战术资金流清单放在你的雷达上。8月份技术市场结构动态发生较大变化</i><i><b>.我认为会有下跌（-5%），应该在杰克逊霍尔后期买入。</b></i><i>人们的共识是呼吁股市进行更大规模的调整，考虑到系统中的资本数量，我认为这是不可能的。如果我们在卖家走低时触发关键水平下跌，我会改变我的语气。如果8月份的资金外流确实发生，我认为鉴于高度集中和最大的被动影响，科技股的表现不如周期性价值重新开放。</i><i><b>一旦我们在8月份看到第一次流出，这将是战术性空头的宏观触发器</b></i><i>.敬请关注，紧盯流动性。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEntering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 15:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p><p><blockquote>这与本月初的看涨情绪截然不同，当时该行首次正确地指出，S&amp;P正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，7月1日至15日期间公布了一系列新高（在16日和19日抛售之前）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p><p><blockquote>...在对为什么“空头必须回补”进行冗长的合理化解释之后，高盛最近几天出人意料地变得看跌，在高盛流量交易员约翰·弗洛德周一敦促高盛客户“不要逢低买入”两天后（剧透警告：他们做到了），他的交易部门同事斯科特·鲁布纳（Scott Rubner）发表了一份报告，预览了为什么他预计未来几天会出现调整，并将持续到8月底的杰克逊霍尔研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p><p><blockquote>我们在下面摘录他的报告，其中包含高盛8月份“修正”论点背后的关键论点，包括战术性资金流动、卖家加速以及GS股票交易大厅的反馈。</blockquote></p><p> So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p><p><blockquote>所以事不宜迟，下面是鲁布纳，他展示了他的“<b><i>8月份修正的11点清单”</i></b>，首先注意到“<i>过去48小时内我收件箱/IB中出现的第一个问题。当资金外流且购买需求放缓时，股市会发生什么？</i>正如我们在下面读到的，最合适的答案是“没什么好的。”</blockquote></p><p>   <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i>   <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>  <u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p><p><blockquote><i>11点清单-一致的客户反馈，以快速降低股票风险，从而降低杰克逊霍尔的潜在购买需求。共识反馈似乎要求修正-5%，实际上达到了-4%。这是本周即将进入你收件箱的话题的回顾。我认为今天早上的反弹会随着当天早些时候买票的完成而消退。</i><i><b>“逢高卖出”是与逢低买入的新动态。</b></i><u><b>1.季节性疲软</b></u>——自1928年以来，我们刚刚结束了一年中最好的两周时期。周五期权到期结束了一年中最好的季节性时期。<b>八月季节性对市场不利，整个八月呈下降趋势，为一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期</b>.今天你在这里，杰克逊霍尔是这张图表的低点。自1950年以来，72年来，S&amp;P指数有19次在上半年上涨至少超过10%。在强劲的1H之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降-51个基点，然后反弹走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>2.年度最大流出量</b></u>-投资者在7月份向市场分配资金，我们已经看到了这些创纪录的资金流入。这是今年股市最大的动态。资金流入继续以创纪录的速度增长，2021年年流入量为1.2万亿美元。401k资金主要流入S&amp;P和NDX，而不是ROW。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.8月份预测流量的逆转</b></u>——8月份股权流入并不常见。在过去的30年里，<b>八月通常是一年中最大的资金流出</b>.-15个基点的资产管理规模通常会在8月份离开股市基金，我们模拟价值约22万亿美元的股票待售。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>4.流出续。</u></b>需要明确的是，-330亿美元在调整市值后并不是一个重要的数字，但更重要的是它不是流入。鉴于资金流入抬高了最大和最大市值指数权重，该指数水平仍保持在ATHs。周一，我们看到一个巨大的MOC失衡出售，这是不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>5.被动流动推动最大市值</b></u>-仅在今年上半年，被动型ETF就创下了有记录以来最好的全年资金流入。(+500b)。我每天都看录像带记录大量的MOC失衡在美国东部时间下午3:50购买，<b>但是如果这种动力消失了呢？</b>请记住，流入SPDR标普500指数ETF的1美元将流入前5名公司0.23美分，流入QQQ的1美元将流入前5名公司0.41美分。如果流入转为流出，您将不再看到广泛的指数动态。<b>那么投资者需要决定哪个板块成为流出的资金来源。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p><p><blockquote>这对标普500有多重要？重要的！</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>  <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>  <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>  <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>全球股票：1年期：+600B美元被动（入）与0.0 B美元主动（出）=&gt;600B美元。</li><li>全球股票：5年期：+$2.30 T被动（入）vs.-$1.90 T主动（出）=&gt;$4.2 T</li><li>全球股票：10年期：+$4T被动（入）vs.-$3.0 T主动（出）=&gt;$7.0 T</li><li>当前全球股票主动资产管理规模为10.099吨，超过当前全球股票被动资产管理规模7.225吨。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>旁注：ETF占名义执行量的36%，为2020年3月/4月以来的最后水平。（年初至今平均值）=24%。你看到SQQQ周一的巨量（3倍空头QQQ）了吗？</i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>六、单一股票评级</b></u>-这是非常类似于2020年7月和8月看涨期权期权交易的结果吹顶。提醒一下，在看涨期权期权交易量开始消退后，标准普尔在2020年9月抛售了-392个基点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>  <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>  <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>  <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>7月份，Option notional的平均交易量创下了每天+5500亿美元的历史纪录。交易量最大的3只股票（AAPL、AMZN和TSLA）的日交易量为300B美元。期权和股票的广度都很低。</li><li>“在4000份可交易的单一股票期权中，前3名占每日平均名义交易量的56%。加上接下来的7份，这一比例跃升至72%。”</li><li>“换句话说，前10名底层股票平均每天的名义交易量是底部3990点的3倍”</li><li>这是一个需要监控的重要动态。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>7.看涨期权期权续。</b></u>-零售业已从每周在GME和AMC上交易看涨期权期权（每天名义价值仅为6B美元）转向居家策略。每日期权交易量最高的公司也是指数权重最大的公司。除了ETF流量之外，散户看涨期权期权购买狂潮也导致了单一股票的街头空头每周伽马值。今天交易的75%的单一股票期权的到期时间为两周或更短。<b>换句话说，鉴于GS YOLO风险情绪篮子已经滚动，AAPL下一步是否需要赶上（或者至少看不到YOLO流量）。</b></blockquote></p><p> $181bln/day AMZN</p><p><blockquote>1810亿美元/天AMZN</blockquote></p><p> $ 82bln/day TSLA</p><p><blockquote>820亿美元/天TSLA</blockquote></p><p> $ 36bln/day AAPL</p><p><blockquote>360亿美元/天AAPL</blockquote></p><p> --------------</p><p><blockquote>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>TSLA/AMZN/AAPL总额：2990亿美元/天——如果大型科技股的看涨期权交易量下降会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>  <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>  <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>  <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>260亿美元/天NVDA</li><li>140亿美元/天GOOGL</li><li>110亿美元/天FB</li><li>100亿美元/天MSFT</li><li>80亿美元/天的商店</li><li>80亿美元/天GOOG</li><li>80亿美元/天NFLX</li><li>70亿美元/天阿里巴巴</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA总计：900亿美元/天</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>40亿美元/天AMC</li><li>20亿美元/天GME</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC/GME总额：60亿美元/天——没有莫约洛？见下图。</b></blockquote></p><p> All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p><p><blockquote>所有其他基础资产：1410亿美元/天</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>单一股票期权市场总额：</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>  <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>  <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li> </ul> --------------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2990亿美元/天TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li><li>900亿美元/天GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li><li>60亿美元/天AMC/GME</li><li>1410亿美元/天所有其他基础</li></ul>--------------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>$537bln/day Total</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5370亿美元/天总计</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>8.期权Gamma平仓</u></b>-期权到期刚刚下跌-85%的市场多头伽马。市场现在有能力更自由地波动，交易更少的多头伽马。上周的每一天，随着交易商重新对冲他们的伽马（逢低买入），市场都会在收盘时反弹。我担心没有伽马对冲和被动需求的夏季日终流动性。我认为还将有“机构”需求购买杰克逊霍尔对冲基金，消除多头伽马，让华尔街做空以对冲下行。本周我们看到的看跌期权和看跌价差比2021年任何一周都多。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>  <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>  <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>  <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>  <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li> </ul> <b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周三(7/14)SPX gamma=+$4,625 B</li><li>周四(7/15)SPX gamma=+$3,620 B</li><li>周五(7/16)SPX gamma=+$3,136 B</li><li>周一(7/19)SPX gamma=+$2,698 B</li><li>周二(7/20)SPX Gamma=+$713B。</li></ul><b>在过去的5天里，多头标普500伽马减少了-85%，交易商的多头伽马减少了。</b>这种动态改变了市场行为，尽管成交量走高，但我们几乎没有看到系统覆盖的需求。这是新的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>9.系统性</b></u>-非经济风险已经接近最大敞口，并且几乎没有进一步增加的空间。到目前为止，还没有触发阈值水平，但重要的是要注意缺乏从这里添加的能力，这不对称地扭曲了下行方向。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>  <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>  <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>CTA</b>-1年排名90%百分位数，3年排名84%百分位数。</li><li><b>GS型号</b>-下周将出售90亿美元的股票。CTA是处于上涨带、下跌带、下跌大带的卖家。这并不常见。检查未来1个月的下行大不对称。</li><li><b>GS短期CTA ES1翻转电平</b>=$4,257.90.我们昨天跳闸了这个断路器，但是今天上午更高。我预计GS卖出预期会增加。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>b)体积控制-1年等级为86%百分位数，3年等级为75%百分位数。仅供参考。SPX看跌期权/看涨期权比率昨日创下一年新高。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>c)风险平价-1年等级为100%百分位数，3年等级为53%百分位数。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>d)总系统性–1年等级为92%百分位数，3年等级为80%百分位数。这很重要。这种非情绪化的需求是最大的，卖家会更低。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>10.流动资金</b></u>-非官方的Rubner外出展望(OOO)回复表。我上周的笔记是“几周后见”或“去钓鱼”的办公室回扣最多的一周。即将到来的杰克逊霍尔日历很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>  <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>  <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>  <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>  <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li> </ol> *** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>接下来的几周，12个月来首次延长假期，等等，因为杰克逊霍尔提前了。</li><li>杰克逊霍尔，8月26日（星期四）-8月28日（星期六）-周五可能是关键的日历，但周六也可能很重要。这将对冲移至下周。</li><li>劳动节，9月6日（周一交换假期）-今年晚些时候</li><li>大约孩子开学第一天，9月7日（星期二）</li><li>流动性=八月夏季-ZZZZ。在昨天的抛售中，账面流动性大幅下降。</li></ol>***尽管在清单中排名第10。这实际上是图表#1。昨天屏幕上的流动性大幅枯竭。该图表上周一达到3600万美元的峰值，昨天达到1081万美元。这意味着螺丝流动性在一周内下降了2500万美元或约70%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>11.回购</b></u>：回购来了，但股权发行也来了，中和了回购冲动。当公司遇到公司时。来自销售和交易同事John Flood在他最近的交易笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> <i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“这是一场纸面派对，而且这张纸面越来越难放置。上周我们在美国对11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周我们已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月深处尤其值得注意。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>  <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上周股票发行量为62亿美元，而2000年以来7月份每周平均发行量为34亿美元。</li><li>上周有27笔股票交易上市，而自2000年以来7月份平均每周15笔交易。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>底线：</b></i><i>在八月份把战术资金流清单放在你的雷达上。8月份技术市场结构动态发生较大变化</i><i><b>.我认为会有下跌（-5%），应该在杰克逊霍尔后期买入。</b></i><i>人们的共识是呼吁股市进行更大规模的调整，考虑到系统中的资本数量，我认为这是不可能的。如果我们在卖家走低时触发关键水平下跌，我会改变我的语气。如果8月份的资金外流确实发生，我认为鉴于高度集中和最大的被动影响，科技股的表现不如周期性价值重新开放。</i><i><b>一旦我们在8月份看到第一次流出，这将是战术性空头的宏观触发器</b></i><i>.敬请关注，紧盯流动性。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192458370","content_text":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...\n\n... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.\nHis note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.\nSo without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"11 point checklist for an August correction\", starting by noting that \"the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"\n\n11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.\n“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.\n\n1. Weak Seasonals- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&P is up at least >10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.\n\n2. Largest outflows of the year- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&P and NDX rather than ROW.\n\n3. Reversal of flows predicted for August- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,August typically sees the largest outflows of the year. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.\n\n4. Outflows cont.To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.\n\n5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,but what if this dynamic fades.Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.\nJust how important has this been for the S&P 500? Important!\n\nGlobal Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = >$600B.\nGlobal Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = >$4.2T\nGlobal Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = >$7.0T\nCurrent Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds > Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.\n\n\nSide note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?\n6. Single Stock Calls- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.\n\nOption notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.\n\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"\n\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”\nThis is an important dynamic to monitor.\n\n\n7. Call Options cont.- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).\n$181bln/day AMZN\n$ 82bln/day TSLA\n$ 36bln/day AAPL\n--------------\nTOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day  ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?\n\n$ 26bln/day NVDA\n$ 14bln/day GOOGL\n$ 11bln/day FB\n$ 10bln/day MSFT\n$  8bln/day SHOP\n$  8bln/day GOOG\n$  8bln/day NFLX\n$  7bln/day BABA\n\n--------------\nTOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day\n\n$  4bln/day AMC\n$  2bln/day GME\n\n--------------\nTOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day  ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.\nAll other underlyings: $141bln/day\nTotal single stock option market:\n\n$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL\n$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA\n$  6bln/day AMC/GME\n$141bln/day All other underlyings\n\n--------------------\n$537bln/day Total\n\n8. Option Gamma Unwinds- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.\n\nWednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B\nThursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B\nFriday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B\nMonday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B\nTuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.\n\nthe Long S&P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.\n\n9. Systematic- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.\n\nCTA- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.\nGS models-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.\nGS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.\n\n\nb) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.\n\nc) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.\n\nd) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.\n\n10. Liquidity- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.\n\nnext few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.\nJackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.\nLabor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year\napproximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)\nLiquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.\n\n*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.\n\n11. Buybacks: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.\n“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“\n\nLast week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.\nLast week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.\n\n\nBottom Line:Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172882146,"gmtCreate":1626951719785,"gmtModify":1633769458573,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575190540714273","idStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"FUD","listText":"FUD","text":"FUD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172882146","repostId":"1192458370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192458370","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626938362,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192458370?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 15:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192458370","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - ","content":"<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p><p><blockquote>这与本月初的看涨情绪截然不同，当时该行首次正确地指出，S&amp;P正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，7月1日至15日期间公布了一系列新高（在16日和19日抛售之前）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p><p><blockquote>...在对为什么“空头必须回补”进行冗长的合理化解释之后，高盛最近几天出人意料地变得看跌，在高盛流量交易员约翰·弗洛德周一敦促高盛客户“不要逢低买入”两天后（剧透警告：他们做到了），他的交易部门同事斯科特·鲁布纳（Scott Rubner）发表了一份报告，预览了为什么他预计未来几天会出现调整，并将持续到8月底的杰克逊霍尔研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p><p><blockquote>我们在下面摘录他的报告，其中包含高盛8月份“修正”论点背后的关键论点，包括战术性资金流动、卖家加速以及GS股票交易大厅的反馈。</blockquote></p><p> So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p><p><blockquote>所以事不宜迟，下面是鲁布纳，他展示了他的“<b><i>8月份修正的11点清单”</i></b>，首先注意到“<i>过去48小时内我收件箱/IB中出现的第一个问题。当资金外流且购买需求放缓时，股市会发生什么？</i>正如我们在下面读到的，最合适的答案是“没什么好的。”</blockquote></p><p>   <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i>   <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>  <u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p><p><blockquote><i>11点清单-一致的客户反馈，以快速降低股票风险，从而降低杰克逊霍尔的潜在购买需求。共识反馈似乎要求修正-5%，实际上达到了-4%。这是本周即将进入你收件箱的话题的回顾。我认为今天早上的反弹会随着当天早些时候买票的完成而消退。</i><i><b>“逢高卖出”是与逢低买入的新动态。</b></i><u><b>1.季节性疲软</b></u>——自1928年以来，我们刚刚结束了一年中最好的两周时期。周五期权到期结束了一年中最好的季节性时期。<b>八月季节性对市场不利，整个八月呈下降趋势，为一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期</b>.今天你在这里，杰克逊霍尔是这张图表的低点。自1950年以来，72年来，S&amp;P指数有19次在上半年上涨至少超过10%。在强劲的1H之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降-51个基点，然后反弹走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>2.年度最大流出量</b></u>-投资者在7月份向市场分配资金，我们已经看到了这些创纪录的资金流入。这是今年股市最大的动态。资金流入继续以创纪录的速度增长，2021年年流入量为1.2万亿美元。401k资金主要流入S&amp;P和NDX，而不是ROW。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.8月份预测流量的逆转</b></u>——8月份股权流入并不常见。在过去的30年里，<b>八月通常是一年中最大的资金流出</b>.-15个基点的资产管理规模通常会在8月份离开股市基金，我们模拟价值约22万亿美元的股票待售。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>4.流出续。</u></b>需要明确的是，-330亿美元在调整市值后并不是一个重要的数字，但更重要的是它不是流入。鉴于资金流入抬高了最大和最大市值指数权重，该指数水平仍保持在ATHs。周一，我们看到一个巨大的MOC失衡出售，这是不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>5.被动流动推动最大市值</b></u>-仅在今年上半年，被动型ETF就创下了有记录以来最好的全年资金流入。(+500b)。我每天都看录像带记录大量的MOC失衡在美国东部时间下午3:50购买，<b>但是如果这种动力消失了呢？</b>请记住，流入SPDR标普500指数ETF的1美元将流入前5名公司0.23美分，流入QQQ的1美元将流入前5名公司0.41美分。如果流入转为流出，您将不再看到广泛的指数动态。<b>那么投资者需要决定哪个板块成为流出的资金来源。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p><p><blockquote>这对标普500有多重要？重要的！</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>  <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>  <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>  <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>全球股票：1年期：+600B美元被动（入）与0.0 B美元主动（出）=&gt;600B美元。</li><li>全球股票：5年期：+$2.30 T被动（入）vs.-$1.90 T主动（出）=&gt;$4.2 T</li><li>全球股票：10年期：+$4T被动（入）vs.-$3.0 T主动（出）=&gt;$7.0 T</li><li>当前全球股票主动资产管理规模为10.099吨，超过当前全球股票被动资产管理规模7.225吨。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>旁注：ETF占名义执行量的36%，为2020年3月/4月以来的最后水平。（年初至今平均值）=24%。你看到SQQQ周一的巨量（3倍空头QQQ）了吗？</i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>六、单一股票评级</b></u>-这是非常类似于2020年7月和8月看涨期权期权交易的结果吹顶。提醒一下，在看涨期权期权交易量开始消退后，标准普尔在2020年9月抛售了-392个基点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>  <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>  <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>  <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>7月份，Option notional的平均交易量创下了每天+5500亿美元的历史纪录。交易量最大的3只股票（AAPL、AMZN和TSLA）的日交易量为300B美元。期权和股票的广度都很低。</li><li>“在4000份可交易的单一股票期权中，前3名占每日平均名义交易量的56%。加上接下来的7份，这一比例跃升至72%。”</li><li>“换句话说，前10名底层股票平均每天的名义交易量是底部3990点的3倍”</li><li>这是一个需要监控的重要动态。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>7.看涨期权期权续。</b></u>-零售业已从每周在GME和AMC上交易看涨期权期权（每天名义价值仅为6B美元）转向居家策略。每日期权交易量最高的公司也是指数权重最大的公司。除了ETF流量之外，散户看涨期权期权购买狂潮也导致了单一股票的街头空头每周伽马值。今天交易的75%的单一股票期权的到期时间为两周或更短。<b>换句话说，鉴于GS YOLO风险情绪篮子已经滚动，AAPL下一步是否需要赶上（或者至少看不到YOLO流量）。</b></blockquote></p><p> $181bln/day AMZN</p><p><blockquote>1810亿美元/天AMZN</blockquote></p><p> $ 82bln/day TSLA</p><p><blockquote>820亿美元/天TSLA</blockquote></p><p> $ 36bln/day AAPL</p><p><blockquote>360亿美元/天AAPL</blockquote></p><p> --------------</p><p><blockquote>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>TSLA/AMZN/AAPL总额：2990亿美元/天——如果大型科技股的看涨期权交易量下降会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>  <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>  <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>  <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>260亿美元/天NVDA</li><li>140亿美元/天GOOGL</li><li>110亿美元/天FB</li><li>100亿美元/天MSFT</li><li>80亿美元/天的商店</li><li>80亿美元/天GOOG</li><li>80亿美元/天NFLX</li><li>70亿美元/天阿里巴巴</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA总计：900亿美元/天</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>40亿美元/天AMC</li><li>20亿美元/天GME</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC/GME总额：60亿美元/天——没有莫约洛？见下图。</b></blockquote></p><p> All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p><p><blockquote>所有其他基础资产：1410亿美元/天</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>单一股票期权市场总额：</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>  <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>  <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li> </ul> --------------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2990亿美元/天TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li><li>900亿美元/天GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li><li>60亿美元/天AMC/GME</li><li>1410亿美元/天所有其他基础</li></ul>--------------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>$537bln/day Total</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5370亿美元/天总计</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>8.期权Gamma平仓</u></b>-期权到期刚刚下跌-85%的市场多头伽马。市场现在有能力更自由地波动，交易更少的多头伽马。上周的每一天，随着交易商重新对冲他们的伽马（逢低买入），市场都会在收盘时反弹。我担心没有伽马对冲和被动需求的夏季日终流动性。我认为还将有“机构”需求购买杰克逊霍尔对冲基金，消除多头伽马，让华尔街做空以对冲下行。本周我们看到的看跌期权和看跌价差比2021年任何一周都多。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>  <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>  <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>  <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>  <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li> </ul> <b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周三(7/14)SPX gamma=+$4,625 B</li><li>周四(7/15)SPX gamma=+$3,620 B</li><li>周五(7/16)SPX gamma=+$3,136 B</li><li>周一(7/19)SPX gamma=+$2,698 B</li><li>周二(7/20)SPX Gamma=+$713B。</li></ul><b>在过去的5天里，多头标普500伽马减少了-85%，交易商的多头伽马减少了。</b>这种动态改变了市场行为，尽管成交量走高，但我们几乎没有看到系统覆盖的需求。这是新的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>9.系统性</b></u>-非经济风险已经接近最大敞口，并且几乎没有进一步增加的空间。到目前为止，还没有触发阈值水平，但重要的是要注意缺乏从这里添加的能力，这不对称地扭曲了下行方向。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>  <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>  <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>CTA</b>-1年排名90%百分位数，3年排名84%百分位数。</li><li><b>GS型号</b>-下周将出售90亿美元的股票。CTA是处于上涨带、下跌带、下跌大带的卖家。这并不常见。检查未来1个月的下行大不对称。</li><li><b>GS短期CTA ES1翻转电平</b>=$4,257.90.我们昨天跳闸了这个断路器，但是今天上午更高。我预计GS卖出预期会增加。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>b)体积控制-1年等级为86%百分位数，3年等级为75%百分位数。仅供参考。SPX看跌期权/看涨期权比率昨日创下一年新高。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>c)风险平价-1年等级为100%百分位数，3年等级为53%百分位数。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>d)总系统性–1年等级为92%百分位数，3年等级为80%百分位数。这很重要。这种非情绪化的需求是最大的，卖家会更低。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>10.流动资金</b></u>-非官方的Rubner外出展望(OOO)回复表。我上周的笔记是“几周后见”或“去钓鱼”的办公室回扣最多的一周。即将到来的杰克逊霍尔日历很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>  <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>  <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>  <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>  <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li> </ol> *** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>接下来的几周，12个月来首次延长假期，等等，因为杰克逊霍尔提前了。</li><li>杰克逊霍尔，8月26日（星期四）-8月28日（星期六）-周五可能是关键的日历，但周六也可能很重要。这将对冲移至下周。</li><li>劳动节，9月6日（周一交换假期）-今年晚些时候</li><li>大约孩子开学第一天，9月7日（星期二）</li><li>流动性=八月夏季-ZZZZ。在昨天的抛售中，账面流动性大幅下降。</li></ol>***尽管在清单中排名第10。这实际上是图表#1。昨天屏幕上的流动性大幅枯竭。该图表上周一达到3600万美元的峰值，昨天达到1081万美元。这意味着螺丝流动性在一周内下降了2500万美元或约70%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>11.回购</b></u>：回购来了，但股权发行也来了，中和了回购冲动。当公司遇到公司时。来自销售和交易同事John Flood在他最近的交易笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> <i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“这是一场纸面派对，而且这张纸面越来越难放置。上周我们在美国对11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周我们已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月深处尤其值得注意。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>  <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上周股票发行量为62亿美元，而2000年以来7月份每周平均发行量为34亿美元。</li><li>上周有27笔股票交易上市，而自2000年以来7月份平均每周15笔交易。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>底线：</b></i><i>在八月份把战术资金流清单放在你的雷达上。8月份技术市场结构动态发生较大变化</i><i><b>.我认为会有下跌（-5%），应该在杰克逊霍尔后期买入。</b></i><i>人们的共识是呼吁股市进行更大规模的调整，考虑到系统中的资本数量，我认为这是不可能的。如果我们在卖家走低时触发关键水平下跌，我会改变我的语气。如果8月份的资金外流确实发生，我认为鉴于高度集中和最大的被动影响，科技股的表现不如周期性价值重新开放。</i><i><b>一旦我们在8月份看到第一次流出，这将是战术性空头的宏观触发器</b></i><i>.敬请关注，紧盯流动性。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEntering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 15:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p><p><blockquote>这与本月初的看涨情绪截然不同，当时该行首次正确地指出，S&amp;P正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，7月1日至15日期间公布了一系列新高（在16日和19日抛售之前）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p><p><blockquote>...在对为什么“空头必须回补”进行冗长的合理化解释之后，高盛最近几天出人意料地变得看跌，在高盛流量交易员约翰·弗洛德周一敦促高盛客户“不要逢低买入”两天后（剧透警告：他们做到了），他的交易部门同事斯科特·鲁布纳（Scott Rubner）发表了一份报告，预览了为什么他预计未来几天会出现调整，并将持续到8月底的杰克逊霍尔研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p><p><blockquote>我们在下面摘录他的报告，其中包含高盛8月份“修正”论点背后的关键论点，包括战术性资金流动、卖家加速以及GS股票交易大厅的反馈。</blockquote></p><p> So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p><p><blockquote>所以事不宜迟，下面是鲁布纳，他展示了他的“<b><i>8月份修正的11点清单”</i></b>，首先注意到“<i>过去48小时内我收件箱/IB中出现的第一个问题。当资金外流且购买需求放缓时，股市会发生什么？</i>正如我们在下面读到的，最合适的答案是“没什么好的。”</blockquote></p><p>   <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i>   <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>  <u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p><p><blockquote><i>11点清单-一致的客户反馈，以快速降低股票风险，从而降低杰克逊霍尔的潜在购买需求。共识反馈似乎要求修正-5%，实际上达到了-4%。这是本周即将进入你收件箱的话题的回顾。我认为今天早上的反弹会随着当天早些时候买票的完成而消退。</i><i><b>“逢高卖出”是与逢低买入的新动态。</b></i><u><b>1.季节性疲软</b></u>——自1928年以来，我们刚刚结束了一年中最好的两周时期。周五期权到期结束了一年中最好的季节性时期。<b>八月季节性对市场不利，整个八月呈下降趋势，为一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期</b>.今天你在这里，杰克逊霍尔是这张图表的低点。自1950年以来，72年来，S&amp;P指数有19次在上半年上涨至少超过10%。在强劲的1H之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降-51个基点，然后反弹走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>2.年度最大流出量</b></u>-投资者在7月份向市场分配资金，我们已经看到了这些创纪录的资金流入。这是今年股市最大的动态。资金流入继续以创纪录的速度增长，2021年年流入量为1.2万亿美元。401k资金主要流入S&amp;P和NDX，而不是ROW。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.8月份预测流量的逆转</b></u>——8月份股权流入并不常见。在过去的30年里，<b>八月通常是一年中最大的资金流出</b>.-15个基点的资产管理规模通常会在8月份离开股市基金，我们模拟价值约22万亿美元的股票待售。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>4.流出续。</u></b>需要明确的是，-330亿美元在调整市值后并不是一个重要的数字，但更重要的是它不是流入。鉴于资金流入抬高了最大和最大市值指数权重，该指数水平仍保持在ATHs。周一，我们看到一个巨大的MOC失衡出售，这是不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>5.被动流动推动最大市值</b></u>-仅在今年上半年，被动型ETF就创下了有记录以来最好的全年资金流入。(+500b)。我每天都看录像带记录大量的MOC失衡在美国东部时间下午3:50购买，<b>但是如果这种动力消失了呢？</b>请记住，流入SPDR标普500指数ETF的1美元将流入前5名公司0.23美分，流入QQQ的1美元将流入前5名公司0.41美分。如果流入转为流出，您将不再看到广泛的指数动态。<b>那么投资者需要决定哪个板块成为流出的资金来源。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p><p><blockquote>这对标普500有多重要？重要的！</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>  <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>  <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>  <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>全球股票：1年期：+600B美元被动（入）与0.0 B美元主动（出）=&gt;600B美元。</li><li>全球股票：5年期：+$2.30 T被动（入）vs.-$1.90 T主动（出）=&gt;$4.2 T</li><li>全球股票：10年期：+$4T被动（入）vs.-$3.0 T主动（出）=&gt;$7.0 T</li><li>当前全球股票主动资产管理规模为10.099吨，超过当前全球股票被动资产管理规模7.225吨。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>旁注：ETF占名义执行量的36%，为2020年3月/4月以来的最后水平。（年初至今平均值）=24%。你看到SQQQ周一的巨量（3倍空头QQQ）了吗？</i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>六、单一股票评级</b></u>-这是非常类似于2020年7月和8月看涨期权期权交易的结果吹顶。提醒一下，在看涨期权期权交易量开始消退后，标准普尔在2020年9月抛售了-392个基点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>  <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>  <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>  <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>7月份，Option notional的平均交易量创下了每天+5500亿美元的历史纪录。交易量最大的3只股票（AAPL、AMZN和TSLA）的日交易量为300B美元。期权和股票的广度都很低。</li><li>“在4000份可交易的单一股票期权中，前3名占每日平均名义交易量的56%。加上接下来的7份，这一比例跃升至72%。”</li><li>“换句话说，前10名底层股票平均每天的名义交易量是底部3990点的3倍”</li><li>这是一个需要监控的重要动态。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>7.看涨期权期权续。</b></u>-零售业已从每周在GME和AMC上交易看涨期权期权（每天名义价值仅为6B美元）转向居家策略。每日期权交易量最高的公司也是指数权重最大的公司。除了ETF流量之外，散户看涨期权期权购买狂潮也导致了单一股票的街头空头每周伽马值。今天交易的75%的单一股票期权的到期时间为两周或更短。<b>换句话说，鉴于GS YOLO风险情绪篮子已经滚动，AAPL下一步是否需要赶上（或者至少看不到YOLO流量）。</b></blockquote></p><p> $181bln/day AMZN</p><p><blockquote>1810亿美元/天AMZN</blockquote></p><p> $ 82bln/day TSLA</p><p><blockquote>820亿美元/天TSLA</blockquote></p><p> $ 36bln/day AAPL</p><p><blockquote>360亿美元/天AAPL</blockquote></p><p> --------------</p><p><blockquote>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>TSLA/AMZN/AAPL总额：2990亿美元/天——如果大型科技股的看涨期权交易量下降会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>  <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>  <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>  <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>260亿美元/天NVDA</li><li>140亿美元/天GOOGL</li><li>110亿美元/天FB</li><li>100亿美元/天MSFT</li><li>80亿美元/天的商店</li><li>80亿美元/天GOOG</li><li>80亿美元/天NFLX</li><li>70亿美元/天阿里巴巴</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA总计：900亿美元/天</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>40亿美元/天AMC</li><li>20亿美元/天GME</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC/GME总额：60亿美元/天——没有莫约洛？见下图。</b></blockquote></p><p> All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p><p><blockquote>所有其他基础资产：1410亿美元/天</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>单一股票期权市场总额：</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>  <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>  <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li> </ul> --------------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2990亿美元/天TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li><li>900亿美元/天GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li><li>60亿美元/天AMC/GME</li><li>1410亿美元/天所有其他基础</li></ul>--------------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>$537bln/day Total</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5370亿美元/天总计</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>8.期权Gamma平仓</u></b>-期权到期刚刚下跌-85%的市场多头伽马。市场现在有能力更自由地波动，交易更少的多头伽马。上周的每一天，随着交易商重新对冲他们的伽马（逢低买入），市场都会在收盘时反弹。我担心没有伽马对冲和被动需求的夏季日终流动性。我认为还将有“机构”需求购买杰克逊霍尔对冲基金，消除多头伽马，让华尔街做空以对冲下行。本周我们看到的看跌期权和看跌价差比2021年任何一周都多。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>  <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>  <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>  <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>  <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li> </ul> <b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周三(7/14)SPX gamma=+$4,625 B</li><li>周四(7/15)SPX gamma=+$3,620 B</li><li>周五(7/16)SPX gamma=+$3,136 B</li><li>周一(7/19)SPX gamma=+$2,698 B</li><li>周二(7/20)SPX Gamma=+$713B。</li></ul><b>在过去的5天里，多头标普500伽马减少了-85%，交易商的多头伽马减少了。</b>这种动态改变了市场行为，尽管成交量走高，但我们几乎没有看到系统覆盖的需求。这是新的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>9.系统性</b></u>-非经济风险已经接近最大敞口，并且几乎没有进一步增加的空间。到目前为止，还没有触发阈值水平，但重要的是要注意缺乏从这里添加的能力，这不对称地扭曲了下行方向。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>  <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>  <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>CTA</b>-1年排名90%百分位数，3年排名84%百分位数。</li><li><b>GS型号</b>-下周将出售90亿美元的股票。CTA是处于上涨带、下跌带、下跌大带的卖家。这并不常见。检查未来1个月的下行大不对称。</li><li><b>GS短期CTA ES1翻转电平</b>=$4,257.90.我们昨天跳闸了这个断路器，但是今天上午更高。我预计GS卖出预期会增加。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>b)体积控制-1年等级为86%百分位数，3年等级为75%百分位数。仅供参考。SPX看跌期权/看涨期权比率昨日创下一年新高。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>c)风险平价-1年等级为100%百分位数，3年等级为53%百分位数。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>d)总系统性–1年等级为92%百分位数，3年等级为80%百分位数。这很重要。这种非情绪化的需求是最大的，卖家会更低。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>10.流动资金</b></u>-非官方的Rubner外出展望(OOO)回复表。我上周的笔记是“几周后见”或“去钓鱼”的办公室回扣最多的一周。即将到来的杰克逊霍尔日历很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>  <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>  <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>  <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>  <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li> </ol> *** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>接下来的几周，12个月来首次延长假期，等等，因为杰克逊霍尔提前了。</li><li>杰克逊霍尔，8月26日（星期四）-8月28日（星期六）-周五可能是关键的日历，但周六也可能很重要。这将对冲移至下周。</li><li>劳动节，9月6日（周一交换假期）-今年晚些时候</li><li>大约孩子开学第一天，9月7日（星期二）</li><li>流动性=八月夏季-ZZZZ。在昨天的抛售中，账面流动性大幅下降。</li></ol>***尽管在清单中排名第10。这实际上是图表#1。昨天屏幕上的流动性大幅枯竭。该图表上周一达到3600万美元的峰值，昨天达到1081万美元。这意味着螺丝流动性在一周内下降了2500万美元或约70%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>11.回购</b></u>：回购来了，但股权发行也来了，中和了回购冲动。当公司遇到公司时。来自销售和交易同事John Flood在他最近的交易笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> <i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“这是一场纸面派对，而且这张纸面越来越难放置。上周我们在美国对11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周我们已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月深处尤其值得注意。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>  <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上周股票发行量为62亿美元，而2000年以来7月份每周平均发行量为34亿美元。</li><li>上周有27笔股票交易上市，而自2000年以来7月份平均每周15笔交易。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>底线：</b></i><i>在八月份把战术资金流清单放在你的雷达上。8月份技术市场结构动态发生较大变化</i><i><b>.我认为会有下跌（-5%），应该在杰克逊霍尔后期买入。</b></i><i>人们的共识是呼吁股市进行更大规模的调整，考虑到系统中的资本数量，我认为这是不可能的。如果我们在卖家走低时触发关键水平下跌，我会改变我的语气。如果8月份的资金外流确实发生，我认为鉴于高度集中和最大的被动影响，科技股的表现不如周期性价值重新开放。</i><i><b>一旦我们在8月份看到第一次流出，这将是战术性空头的宏观触发器</b></i><i>.敬请关注，紧盯流动性。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192458370","content_text":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...\n\n... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.\nHis note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.\nSo without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"11 point checklist for an August correction\", starting by noting that \"the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"\n\n11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.\n“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.\n\n1. Weak Seasonals- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&P is up at least >10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.\n\n2. Largest outflows of the year- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&P and NDX rather than ROW.\n\n3. Reversal of flows predicted for August- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,August typically sees the largest outflows of the year. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.\n\n4. Outflows cont.To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.\n\n5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,but what if this dynamic fades.Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.\nJust how important has this been for the S&P 500? Important!\n\nGlobal Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = >$600B.\nGlobal Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = >$4.2T\nGlobal Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = >$7.0T\nCurrent Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds > Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.\n\n\nSide note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?\n6. Single Stock Calls- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.\n\nOption notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.\n\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"\n\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”\nThis is an important dynamic to monitor.\n\n\n7. Call Options cont.- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).\n$181bln/day AMZN\n$ 82bln/day TSLA\n$ 36bln/day AAPL\n--------------\nTOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day  ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?\n\n$ 26bln/day NVDA\n$ 14bln/day GOOGL\n$ 11bln/day FB\n$ 10bln/day MSFT\n$  8bln/day SHOP\n$  8bln/day GOOG\n$  8bln/day NFLX\n$  7bln/day BABA\n\n--------------\nTOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day\n\n$  4bln/day AMC\n$  2bln/day GME\n\n--------------\nTOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day  ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.\nAll other underlyings: $141bln/day\nTotal single stock option market:\n\n$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL\n$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA\n$  6bln/day AMC/GME\n$141bln/day All other underlyings\n\n--------------------\n$537bln/day Total\n\n8. Option Gamma Unwinds- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.\n\nWednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B\nThursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B\nFriday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B\nMonday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B\nTuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.\n\nthe Long S&P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.\n\n9. Systematic- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.\n\nCTA- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.\nGS models-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.\nGS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.\n\n\nb) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.\n\nc) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.\n\nd) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.\n\n10. Liquidity- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.\n\nnext few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.\nJackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.\nLabor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year\napproximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)\nLiquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.\n\n*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.\n\n11. Buybacks: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.\n“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“\n\nLast week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.\nLast week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.\n\n\nBottom Line:Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150263508,"gmtCreate":1624911556704,"gmtModify":1633947203108,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575190540714273","idStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sick..&nbsp;","listText":"Sick..&nbsp;","text":"Sick..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150263508","repostId":"1182036516","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182036516","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624892087,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182036516?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超5%创新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182036516","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.\n\n","content":"<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.</p><p><blockquote>有报道称三大芯片制造商支持收购Arm，英伟达股价上涨逾5%，创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05201fd147f1f824ea42bb1d0bcac789\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Three major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support&nbsp;Nvidia‘s&nbsp;proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，三大芯片制造商已出面表示，他们支持英伟达收购英国芯片设计公司Arm的提议。</blockquote></p><p> Last September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from&nbsp;SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.</p><p><blockquote>去年9月，英伟达（股票代码：NVDA）宣布以400亿美元现金和股票从软银集团（SFTBY）手中收购Arm，这笔交易将使软银成为英伟达的最大投资者。鉴于Arm作为芯片行业微处理器设计领先供应商的地位，该交易吸引了监管机构和其他芯片公司的广泛审查。几乎所有的智能手机都使用基于Arm设计的处理器。</blockquote></p><p> But the U.K.’s&nbsp;<i>Sunday Times</i>&nbsp;over the weekend&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based&nbsp;MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.</p><p><blockquote>但英国的<i>星期日泰晤士报</i>周末有报道称，Arm的三个重要客户——博通(AVGO)、Marvell(MRVL)和台湾联发科(2454.TW)——已批准该交易。记者无法立即联系到任何相关公司置评。</blockquote></p><p> Citi analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师Atif Malk周日在一份研究报告中写道，该报告是拟议交易向前迈出的一大步。他认为，鉴于英伟达公开承诺加大对Arm英国业务的投资，英国可能会批准此次合并。但他仍然看到了相当大的障碍，尤其是在中国。</blockquote></p><p> “With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中写道：“随着美国继续积极反对中国在科技竞赛中获胜，我们认为中国不太可能支持一项可能导致他们失去Arm准入权的交易。”“如果英伟达找到一种方法，将Arm中国子公司保留为一个独立实体，而无法访问任何[图形处理器或人工智能]IP，那么就有办法获得美国和中国监管机构的批准。”</blockquote></p><p> Malik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.</p><p><blockquote>马利克说，他认为获得批准的道路仍然狭窄。他现在认为获得批准的可能性为30%，高于之前估计的10%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超5%创新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超5%创新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 22:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.</p><p><blockquote>有报道称三大芯片制造商支持收购Arm，英伟达股价上涨逾5%，创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05201fd147f1f824ea42bb1d0bcac789\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Three major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support&nbsp;Nvidia‘s&nbsp;proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，三大芯片制造商已出面表示，他们支持英伟达收购英国芯片设计公司Arm的提议。</blockquote></p><p> Last September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from&nbsp;SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.</p><p><blockquote>去年9月，英伟达（股票代码：NVDA）宣布以400亿美元现金和股票从软银集团（SFTBY）手中收购Arm，这笔交易将使软银成为英伟达的最大投资者。鉴于Arm作为芯片行业微处理器设计领先供应商的地位，该交易吸引了监管机构和其他芯片公司的广泛审查。几乎所有的智能手机都使用基于Arm设计的处理器。</blockquote></p><p> But the U.K.’s&nbsp;<i>Sunday Times</i>&nbsp;over the weekend&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based&nbsp;MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.</p><p><blockquote>但英国的<i>星期日泰晤士报</i>周末有报道称，Arm的三个重要客户——博通(AVGO)、Marvell(MRVL)和台湾联发科(2454.TW)——已批准该交易。记者无法立即联系到任何相关公司置评。</blockquote></p><p> Citi analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师Atif Malk周日在一份研究报告中写道，该报告是拟议交易向前迈出的一大步。他认为，鉴于英伟达公开承诺加大对Arm英国业务的投资，英国可能会批准此次合并。但他仍然看到了相当大的障碍，尤其是在中国。</blockquote></p><p> “With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中写道：“随着美国继续积极反对中国在科技竞赛中获胜，我们认为中国不太可能支持一项可能导致他们失去Arm准入权的交易。”“如果英伟达找到一种方法，将Arm中国子公司保留为一个独立实体，而无法访问任何[图形处理器或人工智能]IP，那么就有办法获得美国和中国监管机构的批准。”</blockquote></p><p> Malik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.</p><p><blockquote>马利克说，他认为获得批准的道路仍然狭窄。他现在认为获得批准的可能性为30%，高于之前估计的10%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182036516","content_text":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.\n\nThree major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support Nvidia‘s proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.\nLast September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.\nBut the U.K.’s Sunday Times over the weekend reported that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.\nCiti analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.\n“With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”\nMalik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128229024,"gmtCreate":1624519489368,"gmtModify":1634004938106,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575190540714273","idStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Moooon","listText":"Moooon","text":"Moooon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128229024","repostId":"1138132786","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189173871,"gmtCreate":1623249574793,"gmtModify":1634035346018,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575190540714273","idStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good 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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623239634,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150769391?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-09 19:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150769391","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. eco","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. economic recovery.</li>  <li>A resurgence in the social media-fueled \"meme stocks.</li>  <li>Newest meme stock Clover Health is set to soar again.</li>  <li>Shares of major banks came under some pressure as bond yields sank to one-month lows.</li> </ul> (June 9)&nbsp;U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday as a lack of clear catalysts kept trading slow, with investors awaiting fresh cues from inflation data this week and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周三上午股指期货交易涨跌互现，投资者考虑的美国经济复苏数据好坏参半。</li><li>社交媒体推动的“模因股票”复苏。</li><li>最新的模因股票Clover Health将再次飙升。</li><li>随着债券收益率跌至一个月低点，主要银行的股价面临一定压力。</li></ul>（6月9日）美国。股指期货周三几乎没有变化，因为缺乏明确的催化剂导致交易缓慢，投资者等待本周通胀数据和即将召开的美联储会议的新线索。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:48 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 54 points, or 0.16%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 0.5 points, or 0.01%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 30.25 points, or 0.22%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午7:48，道指e-minis下跌54点，跌幅0.16%，标普500 e-minis上涨0.5点，跌幅0.01%，纳斯达克100 e-minis上涨30.25点，跌幅0.22%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a1c4aedbfac21d4c2feae0a05614f3\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>7:48 a.m. ET</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国东部时间上午7:48</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But buying into so-called “meme stocks” by small-time retail investors continued, with the new social media favorite Clover Health surging 25.73% in premarket trade after jumping 85% to a record high on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>但小型散户投资者继续买入所谓的“模因股票”，社交媒体新宠Clover Health在周二飙升85%至历史新高后，在盘前交易中飙升25.73%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef37b731791f10c5962707211941a638\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> GameStop - the company most closely associated with the retail rally this year - rose 1.03% ahead of its quarterly results, due after the bell.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站是今年与零售业反弹关系最密切的公司，在盘后公布季度业绩之前上涨1.03%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac557bd1a3e7455529267059a84f206b\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wall Street indexes have moved little this week amid a dearth of cues, with most investors sticking to the sidelines ahead of key inflation data on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>由于缺乏线索，华尔街指数本周几乎没有变动，大多数投资者在周四关键通胀数据公布之前保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s meeting next week is also expected to shed more light on the bank’s policy tapering plans. While inflation has surged in recent months, a sluggish labor market is broadly expected to keep the bank dovish.</p><p><blockquote>美联储下周的会议预计也将进一步阐明该行的政策缩减计划。尽管近几个月通胀飙升，但人们普遍预计低迷的劳动力市场将使央行保持鸽派立场。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></h3> <b>1)&nbsp;Clover Health(CLOV),Wendy's(WEN) </b>– The two stocksextended their gainsin premarket trading, after surging yesterday on increased social media attention. Clover – a seller of health-care insurance that went public via a SPAC deal in October – has risen for the past six days, capped by a nearly 86% surge Tuesday. It soared 24.2% in premarket action, while Wendy's – up nearly 26% in yesterday's trading – added another 4.3% this morning.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></h3><b>1)Clover Health(CLOV)、Wendy's(WEN)</b>-这两只股票在昨天因社交媒体关注度增加而飙升后，在盘前交易中扩大了涨幅。Clover是一家医疗保险销售商，于10月份通过SPAC交易上市，过去六天股价上涨，周二飙升近86%。该股在盘前股价飙升24.2%，而Wendy's在昨天的交易中上涨了近26%，今天上午又上涨了4.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;Campbell Soup(CPB) </b>– The food producer reported quarterly earnings of 57 cents per share, missing consensus by 9 cents a share. Revenue also missed forecasts as results lagged year-ago figures that were boosted by pandemic-related demand. Campbell also cut its full-year forecast, reflecting both those quarterly results and the recent sale of its Plum baby food and snacks business. Campbell shares tumbled 5.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）金宝汤（CPB）</b>–该食品生产商公布的季度收益为每股57美分，比市场预期低9美分。由于业绩落后于受大流行相关需求提振的去年同期数据，收入也未达到预期。金宝汤还下调了全年预期，反映了这些季度业绩以及最近出售其Plum婴儿食品和零食业务。金宝汤股价盘前下跌5.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Lordstown Motors(RIDE)</b> – Lordstown Motors said there was \"substantial doubt\" about its ability to continue as a going concern. The electric truck maker said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it is having problems funding vehicle production. Lordstown plunged more than 16% yesterday ahead of the news, and slid another 4.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>3)洛兹敦汽车公司(RIDE)</b>-洛兹敦汽车公司表示，对其持续经营的能力存在“重大疑问”。这家电动卡车制造商在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示，它在为汽车生产提供资金方面遇到了问题。昨天消息传出前，洛兹敦股价暴跌超过16%，盘前交易中又下跌4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Target(TGT) </b>– The retailer increased its quarterly dividend to 90 cents per share from 68 cents a share, a jump of 32%. The improved payout will go to shareholders of record as of Aug. 18, to be paid on Sept. 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>4）靶点（TGT）</b>-该零售商将季度股息从每股68美分提高到每股90美分，增幅为32%。改进后的派息将支付给截至8月18日登记在册的股东，并于9月10日支付。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Merck(MRK)</b> – The drugmaker struck an agreement to supply the government with molnupiravir, an oral treatment designed to treat mild to moderate cases of Covid-19. The drug is currently being evaluated in a phase 3 trial.</p><p><blockquote><b>5）默克（MRK）</b>–该制药商达成协议，向政府提供molnupiravir，这是一种旨在治疗轻度至中度Covid-19病例的口服治疗药物。该药物目前正在3期试验中进行评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Fastly(FSLY)</b> – Fastly issued an apology for Tuesday’s widespread internet outage, with the cloud computing company saying the incident was caused by a software bug that was triggered when a customer changed settings. Fastly rose 2.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>6)快速(FSLY)</b>-Fastly为周二的大范围互联网中断道歉，这家云计算公司表示，该事件是由客户更改设置时触发的软件错误引起的。Fastly盘前上涨2.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Sherwin-Williams(SHW) </b>– Sherwin-Williams raised its sales and profit guidance for the year, as the paint maker sees pandemic-induced demand for its products continuing even as the pandemic recedes. The company is also raising its prices to deal with higher costs for raw materials. Sherwin-Williams fell 1.3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>7）宣伟（SHW）</b>-宣伟上调了今年的销售和利润指引，因为该涂料制造商认为，即使疫情消退，疫情引发的对其产品的需求仍在继续。该公司还提高价格以应对原材料成本上涨。宣伟盘前下跌1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;Casey’s General Stores(CASY)</b> – Casey’s reported quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 88 cents a share. The convenience store chain’s revenue exceeded estimates as well. Same-store sales, excluding gasoline purchases, rose 12.8% as customer traffic steadily increased.</p><p><blockquote><b>8)凯西综合商店(CASY)</b>–Casey报告的季度收益为每股1.12美元，超出了每股88美分的普遍预期。这家连锁便利店的收入也超出了预期。随着客流量稳步增加，不包括汽油购买的同店销售额增长了12.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Fox Corp.(FOXA) </b>– Fox added 1.8% in the premarket following an upgrade to “overweight” from “equal weight” at Wells Fargo Securities, which feels the stock could benefit from Fox’s presence in sports gambling despite pressures from cord-cutting.</p><p><blockquote><b>9)福克斯公司(FOXA)</b>-富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)将福克斯评级从“同等权重”上调至“跑赢大盘”，该公司认为，尽管面临裁员的压力，该股仍可能受益于福克斯在体育博彩领域的存在。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch(ANF)</b> – The apparel retailer was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Jefferies, which points to ongoing benefits from years of brand elevation efforts as well as an increase in profit margins. Abercrombie rose 2.9% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>10)Abercrombie&amp;Fitch(ANF)</b>-杰富瑞(Jefferies)将该服装零售商的评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，这表明多年来的品牌提升努力以及利润率的提高带来了持续的好处。Abercrombie在盘前交易中上涨2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11)&nbsp;GameStop(GME)</b> – The videogame retailer will report quarterly earnings after today’s closing bell. GameStop shares surged the past two days amid renewed buying in the so-called “meme” stocks.</p><p><blockquote><b>11）游戏驿站(GME)</b>-这家视频游戏零售商将在今天收盘后公布季度收益。过去两天，由于所谓“模因”股票的重新买盘，游戏驿站股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12)&nbsp;Ferrari(RACE) </b>– Ferrari namedSTMicroelectronics(STM) executive Benedetto Vignaas its new CEO, filling a position that had been vacant for six months since Louis Camilleri retired as the automaker’s chief. Vigna – who runs chipmaker STMicro’s biggest division – will begin his new duties at Ferrari on Sept. 1.</p><p><blockquote><b>12）法拉利（比赛）</b>–法拉利任命意法半导体(STM)高管Benedetto Vignaa为新任首席执行官，填补自路易斯·卡米莱里(Louis Camilleri)从汽车制造商首席执行官职位上退休以来空缺了六个月的职位。维尼亚是芯片制造商意法半导体最大部门的负责人，他将于9月1日开始在法拉利履行新职责。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-09 19:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. economic recovery.</li>  <li>A resurgence in the social media-fueled \"meme stocks.</li>  <li>Newest meme stock Clover Health is set to soar again.</li>  <li>Shares of major banks came under some pressure as bond yields sank to one-month lows.</li> </ul> (June 9)&nbsp;U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday as a lack of clear catalysts kept trading slow, with investors awaiting fresh cues from inflation data this week and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周三上午股指期货交易涨跌互现，投资者考虑的美国经济复苏数据好坏参半。</li><li>社交媒体推动的“模因股票”复苏。</li><li>最新的模因股票Clover Health将再次飙升。</li><li>随着债券收益率跌至一个月低点，主要银行的股价面临一定压力。</li></ul>（6月9日）美国。股指期货周三几乎没有变化，因为缺乏明确的催化剂导致交易缓慢，投资者等待本周通胀数据和即将召开的美联储会议的新线索。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:48 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 54 points, or 0.16%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 0.5 points, or 0.01%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 30.25 points, or 0.22%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午7:48，道指e-minis下跌54点，跌幅0.16%，标普500 e-minis上涨0.5点，跌幅0.01%，纳斯达克100 e-minis上涨30.25点，跌幅0.22%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a1c4aedbfac21d4c2feae0a05614f3\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>7:48 a.m. ET</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国东部时间上午7:48</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But buying into so-called “meme stocks” by small-time retail investors continued, with the new social media favorite Clover Health surging 25.73% in premarket trade after jumping 85% to a record high on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>但小型散户投资者继续买入所谓的“模因股票”，社交媒体新宠Clover Health在周二飙升85%至历史新高后，在盘前交易中飙升25.73%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef37b731791f10c5962707211941a638\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> GameStop - the company most closely associated with the retail rally this year - rose 1.03% ahead of its quarterly results, due after the bell.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站是今年与零售业反弹关系最密切的公司，在盘后公布季度业绩之前上涨1.03%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac557bd1a3e7455529267059a84f206b\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wall Street indexes have moved little this week amid a dearth of cues, with most investors sticking to the sidelines ahead of key inflation data on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>由于缺乏线索，华尔街指数本周几乎没有变动，大多数投资者在周四关键通胀数据公布之前保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s meeting next week is also expected to shed more light on the bank’s policy tapering plans. While inflation has surged in recent months, a sluggish labor market is broadly expected to keep the bank dovish.</p><p><blockquote>美联储下周的会议预计也将进一步阐明该行的政策缩减计划。尽管近几个月通胀飙升，但人们普遍预计低迷的劳动力市场将使央行保持鸽派立场。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></h3> <b>1)&nbsp;Clover Health(CLOV),Wendy's(WEN) </b>– The two stocksextended their gainsin premarket trading, after surging yesterday on increased social media attention. Clover – a seller of health-care insurance that went public via a SPAC deal in October – has risen for the past six days, capped by a nearly 86% surge Tuesday. It soared 24.2% in premarket action, while Wendy's – up nearly 26% in yesterday's trading – added another 4.3% this morning.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></h3><b>1)Clover Health(CLOV)、Wendy's(WEN)</b>-这两只股票在昨天因社交媒体关注度增加而飙升后，在盘前交易中扩大了涨幅。Clover是一家医疗保险销售商，于10月份通过SPAC交易上市，过去六天股价上涨，周二飙升近86%。该股在盘前股价飙升24.2%，而Wendy's在昨天的交易中上涨了近26%，今天上午又上涨了4.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;Campbell Soup(CPB) </b>– The food producer reported quarterly earnings of 57 cents per share, missing consensus by 9 cents a share. Revenue also missed forecasts as results lagged year-ago figures that were boosted by pandemic-related demand. Campbell also cut its full-year forecast, reflecting both those quarterly results and the recent sale of its Plum baby food and snacks business. Campbell shares tumbled 5.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）金宝汤（CPB）</b>–该食品生产商公布的季度收益为每股57美分，比市场预期低9美分。由于业绩落后于受大流行相关需求提振的去年同期数据，收入也未达到预期。金宝汤还下调了全年预期，反映了这些季度业绩以及最近出售其Plum婴儿食品和零食业务。金宝汤股价盘前下跌5.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Lordstown Motors(RIDE)</b> – Lordstown Motors said there was \"substantial doubt\" about its ability to continue as a going concern. The electric truck maker said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it is having problems funding vehicle production. Lordstown plunged more than 16% yesterday ahead of the news, and slid another 4.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>3)洛兹敦汽车公司(RIDE)</b>-洛兹敦汽车公司表示，对其持续经营的能力存在“重大疑问”。这家电动卡车制造商在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示，它在为汽车生产提供资金方面遇到了问题。昨天消息传出前，洛兹敦股价暴跌超过16%，盘前交易中又下跌4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Target(TGT) </b>– The retailer increased its quarterly dividend to 90 cents per share from 68 cents a share, a jump of 32%. The improved payout will go to shareholders of record as of Aug. 18, to be paid on Sept. 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>4）靶点（TGT）</b>-该零售商将季度股息从每股68美分提高到每股90美分，增幅为32%。改进后的派息将支付给截至8月18日登记在册的股东，并于9月10日支付。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Merck(MRK)</b> – The drugmaker struck an agreement to supply the government with molnupiravir, an oral treatment designed to treat mild to moderate cases of Covid-19. The drug is currently being evaluated in a phase 3 trial.</p><p><blockquote><b>5）默克（MRK）</b>–该制药商达成协议，向政府提供molnupiravir，这是一种旨在治疗轻度至中度Covid-19病例的口服治疗药物。该药物目前正在3期试验中进行评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Fastly(FSLY)</b> – Fastly issued an apology for Tuesday’s widespread internet outage, with the cloud computing company saying the incident was caused by a software bug that was triggered when a customer changed settings. Fastly rose 2.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>6)快速(FSLY)</b>-Fastly为周二的大范围互联网中断道歉，这家云计算公司表示，该事件是由客户更改设置时触发的软件错误引起的。Fastly盘前上涨2.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Sherwin-Williams(SHW) </b>– Sherwin-Williams raised its sales and profit guidance for the year, as the paint maker sees pandemic-induced demand for its products continuing even as the pandemic recedes. The company is also raising its prices to deal with higher costs for raw materials. Sherwin-Williams fell 1.3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>7）宣伟（SHW）</b>-宣伟上调了今年的销售和利润指引，因为该涂料制造商认为，即使疫情消退，疫情引发的对其产品的需求仍在继续。该公司还提高价格以应对原材料成本上涨。宣伟盘前下跌1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;Casey’s General Stores(CASY)</b> – Casey’s reported quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 88 cents a share. The convenience store chain’s revenue exceeded estimates as well. Same-store sales, excluding gasoline purchases, rose 12.8% as customer traffic steadily increased.</p><p><blockquote><b>8)凯西综合商店(CASY)</b>–Casey报告的季度收益为每股1.12美元，超出了每股88美分的普遍预期。这家连锁便利店的收入也超出了预期。随着客流量稳步增加，不包括汽油购买的同店销售额增长了12.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Fox Corp.(FOXA) </b>– Fox added 1.8% in the premarket following an upgrade to “overweight” from “equal weight” at Wells Fargo Securities, which feels the stock could benefit from Fox’s presence in sports gambling despite pressures from cord-cutting.</p><p><blockquote><b>9)福克斯公司(FOXA)</b>-富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)将福克斯评级从“同等权重”上调至“跑赢大盘”，该公司认为，尽管面临裁员的压力，该股仍可能受益于福克斯在体育博彩领域的存在。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch(ANF)</b> – The apparel retailer was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Jefferies, which points to ongoing benefits from years of brand elevation efforts as well as an increase in profit margins. Abercrombie rose 2.9% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>10)Abercrombie&amp;Fitch(ANF)</b>-杰富瑞(Jefferies)将该服装零售商的评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，这表明多年来的品牌提升努力以及利润率的提高带来了持续的好处。Abercrombie在盘前交易中上涨2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11)&nbsp;GameStop(GME)</b> – The videogame retailer will report quarterly earnings after today’s closing bell. GameStop shares surged the past two days amid renewed buying in the so-called “meme” stocks.</p><p><blockquote><b>11）游戏驿站(GME)</b>-这家视频游戏零售商将在今天收盘后公布季度收益。过去两天，由于所谓“模因”股票的重新买盘，游戏驿站股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12)&nbsp;Ferrari(RACE) </b>– Ferrari namedSTMicroelectronics(STM) executive Benedetto Vignaas its new CEO, filling a position that had been vacant for six months since Louis Camilleri retired as the automaker’s chief. Vigna – who runs chipmaker STMicro’s biggest division – will begin his new duties at Ferrari on Sept. 1.</p><p><blockquote><b>12）法拉利（比赛）</b>–法拉利任命意法半导体(STM)高管Benedetto Vignaa为新任首席执行官，填补自路易斯·卡米莱里(Louis Camilleri)从汽车制造商首席执行官职位上退休以来空缺了六个月的职位。维尼亚是芯片制造商意法半导体最大部门的负责人，他将于9月1日开始在法拉利履行新职责。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150769391","content_text":"Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. economic recovery.\nA resurgence in the social media-fueled \"meme stocks.\nNewest meme stock Clover Health is set to soar again.\nShares of major banks came under some pressure as bond yields sank to one-month lows.\n\n(June 9) U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday as a lack of clear catalysts kept trading slow, with investors awaiting fresh cues from inflation data this week and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.\nAt 7:48 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 54 points, or 0.16%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 0.5 points, or 0.01%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 30.25 points, or 0.22%.\n7:48 a.m. ET\nBut buying into so-called “meme stocks” by small-time retail investors continued, with the new social media favorite Clover Health surging 25.73% in premarket trade after jumping 85% to a record high on Tuesday.\n\nGameStop - the company most closely associated with the retail rally this year - rose 1.03% ahead of its quarterly results, due after the bell.\n\nWall Street indexes have moved little this week amid a dearth of cues, with most investors sticking to the sidelines ahead of key inflation data on Thursday.\nThe Fed’s meeting next week is also expected to shed more light on the bank’s policy tapering plans. While inflation has surged in recent months, a sluggish labor market is broadly expected to keep the bank dovish.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\n1) Clover Health(CLOV),Wendy's(WEN) – The two stocksextended their gainsin premarket trading, after surging yesterday on increased social media attention. Clover – a seller of health-care insurance that went public via a SPAC deal in October – has risen for the past six days, capped by a nearly 86% surge Tuesday. It soared 24.2% in premarket action, while Wendy's – up nearly 26% in yesterday's trading – added another 4.3% this morning.\n2) Campbell Soup(CPB) – The food producer reported quarterly earnings of 57 cents per share, missing consensus by 9 cents a share. Revenue also missed forecasts as results lagged year-ago figures that were boosted by pandemic-related demand. Campbell also cut its full-year forecast, reflecting both those quarterly results and the recent sale of its Plum baby food and snacks business. Campbell shares tumbled 5.8% in the premarket.\n3) Lordstown Motors(RIDE) – Lordstown Motors said there was \"substantial doubt\" about its ability to continue as a going concern. The electric truck maker said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it is having problems funding vehicle production. Lordstown plunged more than 16% yesterday ahead of the news, and slid another 4.2% in premarket trading.\n4) Target(TGT) – The retailer increased its quarterly dividend to 90 cents per share from 68 cents a share, a jump of 32%. The improved payout will go to shareholders of record as of Aug. 18, to be paid on Sept. 10.\n5) Merck(MRK) – The drugmaker struck an agreement to supply the government with molnupiravir, an oral treatment designed to treat mild to moderate cases of Covid-19. The drug is currently being evaluated in a phase 3 trial.\n6) Fastly(FSLY) – Fastly issued an apology for Tuesday’s widespread internet outage, with the cloud computing company saying the incident was caused by a software bug that was triggered when a customer changed settings. Fastly rose 2.4% in the premarket.\n7) Sherwin-Williams(SHW) – Sherwin-Williams raised its sales and profit guidance for the year, as the paint maker sees pandemic-induced demand for its products continuing even as the pandemic recedes. The company is also raising its prices to deal with higher costs for raw materials. Sherwin-Williams fell 1.3% in the premarket.\n8) Casey’s General Stores(CASY) – Casey’s reported quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 88 cents a share. The convenience store chain’s revenue exceeded estimates as well. Same-store sales, excluding gasoline purchases, rose 12.8% as customer traffic steadily increased.\n9) Fox Corp.(FOXA) – Fox added 1.8% in the premarket following an upgrade to “overweight” from “equal weight” at Wells Fargo Securities, which feels the stock could benefit from Fox’s presence in sports gambling despite pressures from cord-cutting.\n10) Abercrombie & Fitch(ANF) – The apparel retailer was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Jefferies, which points to ongoing benefits from years of brand elevation efforts as well as an increase in profit margins. Abercrombie rose 2.9% in premarket trading.\n11) GameStop(GME) – The videogame retailer will report quarterly earnings after today’s closing bell. GameStop shares surged the past two days amid renewed buying in the so-called “meme” stocks.\n12) Ferrari(RACE) – Ferrari namedSTMicroelectronics(STM) executive Benedetto Vignaas its new CEO, filling a position that had been vacant for six months since Louis Camilleri retired as the automaker’s chief. Vigna – who runs chipmaker STMicro’s biggest division – will begin his new duties at Ferrari on Sept. 1.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":189385612,"gmtCreate":1623245654636,"gmtModify":1634035431844,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189385612","repostId":"2142600282","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128229024,"gmtCreate":1624519489368,"gmtModify":1634004938106,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Moooon","listText":"Moooon","text":"Moooon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128229024","repostId":"1138132786","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189381716,"gmtCreate":1623245586435,"gmtModify":1634035432560,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀","listText":"🚀","text":"🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189381716","repostId":"1150769391","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150769391","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623239634,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150769391?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-09 19:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150769391","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. eco","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. economic recovery.</li>  <li>A resurgence in the social media-fueled \"meme stocks.</li>  <li>Newest meme stock Clover Health is set to soar again.</li>  <li>Shares of major banks came under some pressure as bond yields sank to one-month lows.</li> </ul> (June 9)&nbsp;U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday as a lack of clear catalysts kept trading slow, with investors awaiting fresh cues from inflation data this week and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周三上午股指期货交易涨跌互现，投资者考虑的美国经济复苏数据好坏参半。</li><li>社交媒体推动的“模因股票”复苏。</li><li>最新的模因股票Clover Health将再次飙升。</li><li>随着债券收益率跌至一个月低点，主要银行的股价面临一定压力。</li></ul>（6月9日）美国。股指期货周三几乎没有变化，因为缺乏明确的催化剂导致交易缓慢，投资者等待本周通胀数据和即将召开的美联储会议的新线索。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:48 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 54 points, or 0.16%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 0.5 points, or 0.01%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 30.25 points, or 0.22%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午7:48，道指e-minis下跌54点，跌幅0.16%，标普500 e-minis上涨0.5点，跌幅0.01%，纳斯达克100 e-minis上涨30.25点，跌幅0.22%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a1c4aedbfac21d4c2feae0a05614f3\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>7:48 a.m. ET</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国东部时间上午7:48</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But buying into so-called “meme stocks” by small-time retail investors continued, with the new social media favorite Clover Health surging 25.73% in premarket trade after jumping 85% to a record high on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>但小型散户投资者继续买入所谓的“模因股票”，社交媒体新宠Clover Health在周二飙升85%至历史新高后，在盘前交易中飙升25.73%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef37b731791f10c5962707211941a638\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> GameStop - the company most closely associated with the retail rally this year - rose 1.03% ahead of its quarterly results, due after the bell.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站是今年与零售业反弹关系最密切的公司，在盘后公布季度业绩之前上涨1.03%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac557bd1a3e7455529267059a84f206b\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wall Street indexes have moved little this week amid a dearth of cues, with most investors sticking to the sidelines ahead of key inflation data on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>由于缺乏线索，华尔街指数本周几乎没有变动，大多数投资者在周四关键通胀数据公布之前保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s meeting next week is also expected to shed more light on the bank’s policy tapering plans. While inflation has surged in recent months, a sluggish labor market is broadly expected to keep the bank dovish.</p><p><blockquote>美联储下周的会议预计也将进一步阐明该行的政策缩减计划。尽管近几个月通胀飙升，但人们普遍预计低迷的劳动力市场将使央行保持鸽派立场。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></h3> <b>1)&nbsp;Clover Health(CLOV),Wendy's(WEN) </b>– The two stocksextended their gainsin premarket trading, after surging yesterday on increased social media attention. Clover – a seller of health-care insurance that went public via a SPAC deal in October – has risen for the past six days, capped by a nearly 86% surge Tuesday. It soared 24.2% in premarket action, while Wendy's – up nearly 26% in yesterday's trading – added another 4.3% this morning.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></h3><b>1)Clover Health(CLOV)、Wendy's(WEN)</b>-这两只股票在昨天因社交媒体关注度增加而飙升后，在盘前交易中扩大了涨幅。Clover是一家医疗保险销售商，于10月份通过SPAC交易上市，过去六天股价上涨，周二飙升近86%。该股在盘前股价飙升24.2%，而Wendy's在昨天的交易中上涨了近26%，今天上午又上涨了4.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;Campbell Soup(CPB) </b>– The food producer reported quarterly earnings of 57 cents per share, missing consensus by 9 cents a share. Revenue also missed forecasts as results lagged year-ago figures that were boosted by pandemic-related demand. Campbell also cut its full-year forecast, reflecting both those quarterly results and the recent sale of its Plum baby food and snacks business. Campbell shares tumbled 5.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）金宝汤（CPB）</b>–该食品生产商公布的季度收益为每股57美分，比市场预期低9美分。由于业绩落后于受大流行相关需求提振的去年同期数据，收入也未达到预期。金宝汤还下调了全年预期，反映了这些季度业绩以及最近出售其Plum婴儿食品和零食业务。金宝汤股价盘前下跌5.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Lordstown Motors(RIDE)</b> – Lordstown Motors said there was \"substantial doubt\" about its ability to continue as a going concern. The electric truck maker said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it is having problems funding vehicle production. Lordstown plunged more than 16% yesterday ahead of the news, and slid another 4.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>3)洛兹敦汽车公司(RIDE)</b>-洛兹敦汽车公司表示，对其持续经营的能力存在“重大疑问”。这家电动卡车制造商在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示，它在为汽车生产提供资金方面遇到了问题。昨天消息传出前，洛兹敦股价暴跌超过16%，盘前交易中又下跌4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Target(TGT) </b>– The retailer increased its quarterly dividend to 90 cents per share from 68 cents a share, a jump of 32%. The improved payout will go to shareholders of record as of Aug. 18, to be paid on Sept. 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>4）靶点（TGT）</b>-该零售商将季度股息从每股68美分提高到每股90美分，增幅为32%。改进后的派息将支付给截至8月18日登记在册的股东，并于9月10日支付。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Merck(MRK)</b> – The drugmaker struck an agreement to supply the government with molnupiravir, an oral treatment designed to treat mild to moderate cases of Covid-19. The drug is currently being evaluated in a phase 3 trial.</p><p><blockquote><b>5）默克（MRK）</b>–该制药商达成协议，向政府提供molnupiravir，这是一种旨在治疗轻度至中度Covid-19病例的口服治疗药物。该药物目前正在3期试验中进行评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Fastly(FSLY)</b> – Fastly issued an apology for Tuesday’s widespread internet outage, with the cloud computing company saying the incident was caused by a software bug that was triggered when a customer changed settings. Fastly rose 2.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>6)快速(FSLY)</b>-Fastly为周二的大范围互联网中断道歉，这家云计算公司表示，该事件是由客户更改设置时触发的软件错误引起的。Fastly盘前上涨2.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Sherwin-Williams(SHW) </b>– Sherwin-Williams raised its sales and profit guidance for the year, as the paint maker sees pandemic-induced demand for its products continuing even as the pandemic recedes. The company is also raising its prices to deal with higher costs for raw materials. Sherwin-Williams fell 1.3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>7）宣伟（SHW）</b>-宣伟上调了今年的销售和利润指引，因为该涂料制造商认为，即使疫情消退，疫情引发的对其产品的需求仍在继续。该公司还提高价格以应对原材料成本上涨。宣伟盘前下跌1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;Casey’s General Stores(CASY)</b> – Casey’s reported quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 88 cents a share. The convenience store chain’s revenue exceeded estimates as well. Same-store sales, excluding gasoline purchases, rose 12.8% as customer traffic steadily increased.</p><p><blockquote><b>8)凯西综合商店(CASY)</b>–Casey报告的季度收益为每股1.12美元，超出了每股88美分的普遍预期。这家连锁便利店的收入也超出了预期。随着客流量稳步增加，不包括汽油购买的同店销售额增长了12.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Fox Corp.(FOXA) </b>– Fox added 1.8% in the premarket following an upgrade to “overweight” from “equal weight” at Wells Fargo Securities, which feels the stock could benefit from Fox’s presence in sports gambling despite pressures from cord-cutting.</p><p><blockquote><b>9)福克斯公司(FOXA)</b>-富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)将福克斯评级从“同等权重”上调至“跑赢大盘”，该公司认为，尽管面临裁员的压力，该股仍可能受益于福克斯在体育博彩领域的存在。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch(ANF)</b> – The apparel retailer was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Jefferies, which points to ongoing benefits from years of brand elevation efforts as well as an increase in profit margins. Abercrombie rose 2.9% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>10)Abercrombie&amp;Fitch(ANF)</b>-杰富瑞(Jefferies)将该服装零售商的评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，这表明多年来的品牌提升努力以及利润率的提高带来了持续的好处。Abercrombie在盘前交易中上涨2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11)&nbsp;GameStop(GME)</b> – The videogame retailer will report quarterly earnings after today’s closing bell. GameStop shares surged the past two days amid renewed buying in the so-called “meme” stocks.</p><p><blockquote><b>11）游戏驿站(GME)</b>-这家视频游戏零售商将在今天收盘后公布季度收益。过去两天，由于所谓“模因”股票的重新买盘，游戏驿站股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12)&nbsp;Ferrari(RACE) </b>– Ferrari namedSTMicroelectronics(STM) executive Benedetto Vignaas its new CEO, filling a position that had been vacant for six months since Louis Camilleri retired as the automaker’s chief. Vigna – who runs chipmaker STMicro’s biggest division – will begin his new duties at Ferrari on Sept. 1.</p><p><blockquote><b>12）法拉利（比赛）</b>–法拉利任命意法半导体(STM)高管Benedetto Vignaa为新任首席执行官，填补自路易斯·卡米莱里(Louis Camilleri)从汽车制造商首席执行官职位上退休以来空缺了六个月的职位。维尼亚是芯片制造商意法半导体最大部门的负责人，他将于9月1日开始在法拉利履行新职责。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-09 19:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. economic recovery.</li>  <li>A resurgence in the social media-fueled \"meme stocks.</li>  <li>Newest meme stock Clover Health is set to soar again.</li>  <li>Shares of major banks came under some pressure as bond yields sank to one-month lows.</li> </ul> (June 9)&nbsp;U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday as a lack of clear catalysts kept trading slow, with investors awaiting fresh cues from inflation data this week and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周三上午股指期货交易涨跌互现，投资者考虑的美国经济复苏数据好坏参半。</li><li>社交媒体推动的“模因股票”复苏。</li><li>最新的模因股票Clover Health将再次飙升。</li><li>随着债券收益率跌至一个月低点，主要银行的股价面临一定压力。</li></ul>（6月9日）美国。股指期货周三几乎没有变化，因为缺乏明确的催化剂导致交易缓慢，投资者等待本周通胀数据和即将召开的美联储会议的新线索。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:48 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 54 points, or 0.16%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 0.5 points, or 0.01%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 30.25 points, or 0.22%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午7:48，道指e-minis下跌54点，跌幅0.16%，标普500 e-minis上涨0.5点，跌幅0.01%，纳斯达克100 e-minis上涨30.25点，跌幅0.22%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a1c4aedbfac21d4c2feae0a05614f3\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>7:48 a.m. ET</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国东部时间上午7:48</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But buying into so-called “meme stocks” by small-time retail investors continued, with the new social media favorite Clover Health surging 25.73% in premarket trade after jumping 85% to a record high on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>但小型散户投资者继续买入所谓的“模因股票”，社交媒体新宠Clover Health在周二飙升85%至历史新高后，在盘前交易中飙升25.73%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef37b731791f10c5962707211941a638\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> GameStop - the company most closely associated with the retail rally this year - rose 1.03% ahead of its quarterly results, due after the bell.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站是今年与零售业反弹关系最密切的公司，在盘后公布季度业绩之前上涨1.03%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac557bd1a3e7455529267059a84f206b\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wall Street indexes have moved little this week amid a dearth of cues, with most investors sticking to the sidelines ahead of key inflation data on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>由于缺乏线索，华尔街指数本周几乎没有变动，大多数投资者在周四关键通胀数据公布之前保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s meeting next week is also expected to shed more light on the bank’s policy tapering plans. While inflation has surged in recent months, a sluggish labor market is broadly expected to keep the bank dovish.</p><p><blockquote>美联储下周的会议预计也将进一步阐明该行的政策缩减计划。尽管近几个月通胀飙升，但人们普遍预计低迷的劳动力市场将使央行保持鸽派立场。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></h3> <b>1)&nbsp;Clover Health(CLOV),Wendy's(WEN) </b>– The two stocksextended their gainsin premarket trading, after surging yesterday on increased social media attention. Clover – a seller of health-care insurance that went public via a SPAC deal in October – has risen for the past six days, capped by a nearly 86% surge Tuesday. It soared 24.2% in premarket action, while Wendy's – up nearly 26% in yesterday's trading – added another 4.3% this morning.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></h3><b>1)Clover Health(CLOV)、Wendy's(WEN)</b>-这两只股票在昨天因社交媒体关注度增加而飙升后，在盘前交易中扩大了涨幅。Clover是一家医疗保险销售商，于10月份通过SPAC交易上市，过去六天股价上涨，周二飙升近86%。该股在盘前股价飙升24.2%，而Wendy's在昨天的交易中上涨了近26%，今天上午又上涨了4.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;Campbell Soup(CPB) </b>– The food producer reported quarterly earnings of 57 cents per share, missing consensus by 9 cents a share. Revenue also missed forecasts as results lagged year-ago figures that were boosted by pandemic-related demand. Campbell also cut its full-year forecast, reflecting both those quarterly results and the recent sale of its Plum baby food and snacks business. Campbell shares tumbled 5.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）金宝汤（CPB）</b>–该食品生产商公布的季度收益为每股57美分，比市场预期低9美分。由于业绩落后于受大流行相关需求提振的去年同期数据，收入也未达到预期。金宝汤还下调了全年预期，反映了这些季度业绩以及最近出售其Plum婴儿食品和零食业务。金宝汤股价盘前下跌5.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Lordstown Motors(RIDE)</b> – Lordstown Motors said there was \"substantial doubt\" about its ability to continue as a going concern. The electric truck maker said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it is having problems funding vehicle production. Lordstown plunged more than 16% yesterday ahead of the news, and slid another 4.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>3)洛兹敦汽车公司(RIDE)</b>-洛兹敦汽车公司表示，对其持续经营的能力存在“重大疑问”。这家电动卡车制造商在向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中表示，它在为汽车生产提供资金方面遇到了问题。昨天消息传出前，洛兹敦股价暴跌超过16%，盘前交易中又下跌4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Target(TGT) </b>– The retailer increased its quarterly dividend to 90 cents per share from 68 cents a share, a jump of 32%. The improved payout will go to shareholders of record as of Aug. 18, to be paid on Sept. 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>4）靶点（TGT）</b>-该零售商将季度股息从每股68美分提高到每股90美分，增幅为32%。改进后的派息将支付给截至8月18日登记在册的股东，并于9月10日支付。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Merck(MRK)</b> – The drugmaker struck an agreement to supply the government with molnupiravir, an oral treatment designed to treat mild to moderate cases of Covid-19. The drug is currently being evaluated in a phase 3 trial.</p><p><blockquote><b>5）默克（MRK）</b>–该制药商达成协议，向政府提供molnupiravir，这是一种旨在治疗轻度至中度Covid-19病例的口服治疗药物。该药物目前正在3期试验中进行评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Fastly(FSLY)</b> – Fastly issued an apology for Tuesday’s widespread internet outage, with the cloud computing company saying the incident was caused by a software bug that was triggered when a customer changed settings. Fastly rose 2.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>6)快速(FSLY)</b>-Fastly为周二的大范围互联网中断道歉，这家云计算公司表示，该事件是由客户更改设置时触发的软件错误引起的。Fastly盘前上涨2.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Sherwin-Williams(SHW) </b>– Sherwin-Williams raised its sales and profit guidance for the year, as the paint maker sees pandemic-induced demand for its products continuing even as the pandemic recedes. The company is also raising its prices to deal with higher costs for raw materials. Sherwin-Williams fell 1.3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>7）宣伟（SHW）</b>-宣伟上调了今年的销售和利润指引，因为该涂料制造商认为，即使疫情消退，疫情引发的对其产品的需求仍在继续。该公司还提高价格以应对原材料成本上涨。宣伟盘前下跌1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;Casey’s General Stores(CASY)</b> – Casey’s reported quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 88 cents a share. The convenience store chain’s revenue exceeded estimates as well. Same-store sales, excluding gasoline purchases, rose 12.8% as customer traffic steadily increased.</p><p><blockquote><b>8)凯西综合商店(CASY)</b>–Casey报告的季度收益为每股1.12美元，超出了每股88美分的普遍预期。这家连锁便利店的收入也超出了预期。随着客流量稳步增加，不包括汽油购买的同店销售额增长了12.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Fox Corp.(FOXA) </b>– Fox added 1.8% in the premarket following an upgrade to “overweight” from “equal weight” at Wells Fargo Securities, which feels the stock could benefit from Fox’s presence in sports gambling despite pressures from cord-cutting.</p><p><blockquote><b>9)福克斯公司(FOXA)</b>-富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)将福克斯评级从“同等权重”上调至“跑赢大盘”，该公司认为，尽管面临裁员的压力，该股仍可能受益于福克斯在体育博彩领域的存在。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch(ANF)</b> – The apparel retailer was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Jefferies, which points to ongoing benefits from years of brand elevation efforts as well as an increase in profit margins. Abercrombie rose 2.9% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>10)Abercrombie&amp;Fitch(ANF)</b>-杰富瑞(Jefferies)将该服装零售商的评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，这表明多年来的品牌提升努力以及利润率的提高带来了持续的好处。Abercrombie在盘前交易中上涨2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11)&nbsp;GameStop(GME)</b> – The videogame retailer will report quarterly earnings after today’s closing bell. GameStop shares surged the past two days amid renewed buying in the so-called “meme” stocks.</p><p><blockquote><b>11）游戏驿站(GME)</b>-这家视频游戏零售商将在今天收盘后公布季度收益。过去两天，由于所谓“模因”股票的重新买盘，游戏驿站股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12)&nbsp;Ferrari(RACE) </b>– Ferrari namedSTMicroelectronics(STM) executive Benedetto Vignaas its new CEO, filling a position that had been vacant for six months since Louis Camilleri retired as the automaker’s chief. Vigna – who runs chipmaker STMicro’s biggest division – will begin his new duties at Ferrari on Sept. 1.</p><p><blockquote><b>12）法拉利（比赛）</b>–法拉利任命意法半导体(STM)高管Benedetto Vignaa为新任首席执行官，填补自路易斯·卡米莱里(Louis Camilleri)从汽车制造商首席执行官职位上退休以来空缺了六个月的职位。维尼亚是芯片制造商意法半导体最大部门的负责人，他将于9月1日开始在法拉利履行新职责。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150769391","content_text":"Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. economic recovery.\nA resurgence in the social media-fueled \"meme stocks.\nNewest meme stock Clover Health is set to soar again.\nShares of major banks came under some pressure as bond yields sank to one-month lows.\n\n(June 9) U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday as a lack of clear catalysts kept trading slow, with investors awaiting fresh cues from inflation data this week and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.\nAt 7:48 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 54 points, or 0.16%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 0.5 points, or 0.01%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 30.25 points, or 0.22%.\n7:48 a.m. ET\nBut buying into so-called “meme stocks” by small-time retail investors continued, with the new social media favorite Clover Health surging 25.73% in premarket trade after jumping 85% to a record high on Tuesday.\n\nGameStop - the company most closely associated with the retail rally this year - rose 1.03% ahead of its quarterly results, due after the bell.\n\nWall Street indexes have moved little this week amid a dearth of cues, with most investors sticking to the sidelines ahead of key inflation data on Thursday.\nThe Fed’s meeting next week is also expected to shed more light on the bank’s policy tapering plans. While inflation has surged in recent months, a sluggish labor market is broadly expected to keep the bank dovish.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\n1) Clover Health(CLOV),Wendy's(WEN) – The two stocksextended their gainsin premarket trading, after surging yesterday on increased social media attention. Clover – a seller of health-care insurance that went public via a SPAC deal in October – has risen for the past six days, capped by a nearly 86% surge Tuesday. It soared 24.2% in premarket action, while Wendy's – up nearly 26% in yesterday's trading – added another 4.3% this morning.\n2) Campbell Soup(CPB) – The food producer reported quarterly earnings of 57 cents per share, missing consensus by 9 cents a share. Revenue also missed forecasts as results lagged year-ago figures that were boosted by pandemic-related demand. Campbell also cut its full-year forecast, reflecting both those quarterly results and the recent sale of its Plum baby food and snacks business. Campbell shares tumbled 5.8% in the premarket.\n3) Lordstown Motors(RIDE) – Lordstown Motors said there was \"substantial doubt\" about its ability to continue as a going concern. The electric truck maker said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it is having problems funding vehicle production. Lordstown plunged more than 16% yesterday ahead of the news, and slid another 4.2% in premarket trading.\n4) Target(TGT) – The retailer increased its quarterly dividend to 90 cents per share from 68 cents a share, a jump of 32%. The improved payout will go to shareholders of record as of Aug. 18, to be paid on Sept. 10.\n5) Merck(MRK) – The drugmaker struck an agreement to supply the government with molnupiravir, an oral treatment designed to treat mild to moderate cases of Covid-19. The drug is currently being evaluated in a phase 3 trial.\n6) Fastly(FSLY) – Fastly issued an apology for Tuesday’s widespread internet outage, with the cloud computing company saying the incident was caused by a software bug that was triggered when a customer changed settings. Fastly rose 2.4% in the premarket.\n7) Sherwin-Williams(SHW) – Sherwin-Williams raised its sales and profit guidance for the year, as the paint maker sees pandemic-induced demand for its products continuing even as the pandemic recedes. The company is also raising its prices to deal with higher costs for raw materials. Sherwin-Williams fell 1.3% in the premarket.\n8) Casey’s General Stores(CASY) – Casey’s reported quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 88 cents a share. The convenience store chain’s revenue exceeded estimates as well. Same-store sales, excluding gasoline purchases, rose 12.8% as customer traffic steadily increased.\n9) Fox Corp.(FOXA) – Fox added 1.8% in the premarket following an upgrade to “overweight” from “equal weight” at Wells Fargo Securities, which feels the stock could benefit from Fox’s presence in sports gambling despite pressures from cord-cutting.\n10) Abercrombie & Fitch(ANF) – The apparel retailer was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Jefferies, which points to ongoing benefits from years of brand elevation efforts as well as an increase in profit margins. Abercrombie rose 2.9% in premarket trading.\n11) GameStop(GME) – The videogame retailer will report quarterly earnings after today’s closing bell. GameStop shares surged the past two days amid renewed buying in the so-called “meme” stocks.\n12) Ferrari(RACE) – Ferrari namedSTMicroelectronics(STM) executive Benedetto Vignaas its new CEO, filling a position that had been vacant for six months since Louis Camilleri retired as the automaker’s chief. Vigna – who runs chipmaker STMicro’s biggest division – will begin his new duties at Ferrari on Sept. 1.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172882810,"gmtCreate":1626951731930,"gmtModify":1633769458451,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"FUD","listText":"FUD","text":"FUD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172882810","repostId":"1192458370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192458370","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626938362,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192458370?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 15:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192458370","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - ","content":"<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p><p><blockquote>这与本月初的看涨情绪截然不同，当时该行首次正确地指出，S&amp;P正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，7月1日至15日期间公布了一系列新高（在16日和19日抛售之前）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p><p><blockquote>...在对为什么“空头必须回补”进行冗长的合理化解释之后，高盛最近几天出人意料地变得看跌，在高盛流量交易员约翰·弗洛德周一敦促高盛客户“不要逢低买入”两天后（剧透警告：他们做到了），他的交易部门同事斯科特·鲁布纳（Scott Rubner）发表了一份报告，预览了为什么他预计未来几天会出现调整，并将持续到8月底的杰克逊霍尔研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p><p><blockquote>我们在下面摘录他的报告，其中包含高盛8月份“修正”论点背后的关键论点，包括战术性资金流动、卖家加速以及GS股票交易大厅的反馈。</blockquote></p><p> So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p><p><blockquote>所以事不宜迟，下面是鲁布纳，他展示了他的“<b><i>8月份修正的11点清单”</i></b>，首先注意到“<i>过去48小时内我收件箱/IB中出现的第一个问题。当资金外流且购买需求放缓时，股市会发生什么？</i>正如我们在下面读到的，最合适的答案是“没什么好的。”</blockquote></p><p>   <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i>   <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>  <u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p><p><blockquote><i>11点清单-一致的客户反馈，以快速降低股票风险，从而降低杰克逊霍尔的潜在购买需求。共识反馈似乎要求修正-5%，实际上达到了-4%。这是本周即将进入你收件箱的话题的回顾。我认为今天早上的反弹会随着当天早些时候买票的完成而消退。</i><i><b>“逢高卖出”是与逢低买入的新动态。</b></i><u><b>1.季节性疲软</b></u>——自1928年以来，我们刚刚结束了一年中最好的两周时期。周五期权到期结束了一年中最好的季节性时期。<b>八月季节性对市场不利，整个八月呈下降趋势，为一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期</b>.今天你在这里，杰克逊霍尔是这张图表的低点。自1950年以来，72年来，S&amp;P指数有19次在上半年上涨至少超过10%。在强劲的1H之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降-51个基点，然后反弹走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>2.年度最大流出量</b></u>-投资者在7月份向市场分配资金，我们已经看到了这些创纪录的资金流入。这是今年股市最大的动态。资金流入继续以创纪录的速度增长，2021年年流入量为1.2万亿美元。401k资金主要流入S&amp;P和NDX，而不是ROW。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.8月份预测流量的逆转</b></u>——8月份股权流入并不常见。在过去的30年里，<b>八月通常是一年中最大的资金流出</b>.-15个基点的资产管理规模通常会在8月份离开股市基金，我们模拟价值约22万亿美元的股票待售。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>4.流出续。</u></b>需要明确的是，-330亿美元在调整市值后并不是一个重要的数字，但更重要的是它不是流入。鉴于资金流入抬高了最大和最大市值指数权重，该指数水平仍保持在ATHs。周一，我们看到一个巨大的MOC失衡出售，这是不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>5.被动流动推动最大市值</b></u>-仅在今年上半年，被动型ETF就创下了有记录以来最好的全年资金流入。(+500b)。我每天都看录像带记录大量的MOC失衡在美国东部时间下午3:50购买，<b>但是如果这种动力消失了呢？</b>请记住，流入SPDR标普500指数ETF的1美元将流入前5名公司0.23美分，流入QQQ的1美元将流入前5名公司0.41美分。如果流入转为流出，您将不再看到广泛的指数动态。<b>那么投资者需要决定哪个板块成为流出的资金来源。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p><p><blockquote>这对标普500有多重要？重要的！</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>  <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>  <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>  <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>全球股票：1年期：+600B美元被动（入）与0.0 B美元主动（出）=&gt;600B美元。</li><li>全球股票：5年期：+$2.30 T被动（入）vs.-$1.90 T主动（出）=&gt;$4.2 T</li><li>全球股票：10年期：+$4T被动（入）vs.-$3.0 T主动（出）=&gt;$7.0 T</li><li>当前全球股票主动资产管理规模为10.099吨，超过当前全球股票被动资产管理规模7.225吨。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>旁注：ETF占名义执行量的36%，为2020年3月/4月以来的最后水平。（年初至今平均值）=24%。你看到SQQQ周一的巨量（3倍空头QQQ）了吗？</i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>六、单一股票评级</b></u>-这是非常类似于2020年7月和8月看涨期权期权交易的结果吹顶。提醒一下，在看涨期权期权交易量开始消退后，标准普尔在2020年9月抛售了-392个基点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>  <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>  <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>  <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>7月份，Option notional的平均交易量创下了每天+5500亿美元的历史纪录。交易量最大的3只股票（AAPL、AMZN和TSLA）的日交易量为300B美元。期权和股票的广度都很低。</li><li>“在4000份可交易的单一股票期权中，前3名占每日平均名义交易量的56%。加上接下来的7份，这一比例跃升至72%。”</li><li>“换句话说，前10名底层股票平均每天的名义交易量是底部3990点的3倍”</li><li>这是一个需要监控的重要动态。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>7.看涨期权期权续。</b></u>-零售业已从每周在GME和AMC上交易看涨期权期权（每天名义价值仅为6B美元）转向居家策略。每日期权交易量最高的公司也是指数权重最大的公司。除了ETF流量之外，散户看涨期权期权购买狂潮也导致了单一股票的街头空头每周伽马值。今天交易的75%的单一股票期权的到期时间为两周或更短。<b>换句话说，鉴于GS YOLO风险情绪篮子已经滚动，AAPL下一步是否需要赶上（或者至少看不到YOLO流量）。</b></blockquote></p><p> $181bln/day AMZN</p><p><blockquote>1810亿美元/天AMZN</blockquote></p><p> $ 82bln/day TSLA</p><p><blockquote>820亿美元/天TSLA</blockquote></p><p> $ 36bln/day AAPL</p><p><blockquote>360亿美元/天AAPL</blockquote></p><p> --------------</p><p><blockquote>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>TSLA/AMZN/AAPL总额：2990亿美元/天——如果大型科技股的看涨期权交易量下降会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>  <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>  <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>  <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>260亿美元/天NVDA</li><li>140亿美元/天GOOGL</li><li>110亿美元/天FB</li><li>100亿美元/天MSFT</li><li>80亿美元/天的商店</li><li>80亿美元/天GOOG</li><li>80亿美元/天NFLX</li><li>70亿美元/天阿里巴巴</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA总计：900亿美元/天</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>40亿美元/天AMC</li><li>20亿美元/天GME</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC/GME总额：60亿美元/天——没有莫约洛？见下图。</b></blockquote></p><p> All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p><p><blockquote>所有其他基础资产：1410亿美元/天</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>单一股票期权市场总额：</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>  <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>  <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li> </ul> --------------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2990亿美元/天TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li><li>900亿美元/天GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li><li>60亿美元/天AMC/GME</li><li>1410亿美元/天所有其他基础</li></ul>--------------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>$537bln/day Total</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5370亿美元/天总计</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>8.期权Gamma平仓</u></b>-期权到期刚刚下跌-85%的市场多头伽马。市场现在有能力更自由地波动，交易更少的多头伽马。上周的每一天，随着交易商重新对冲他们的伽马（逢低买入），市场都会在收盘时反弹。我担心没有伽马对冲和被动需求的夏季日终流动性。我认为还将有“机构”需求购买杰克逊霍尔对冲基金，消除多头伽马，让华尔街做空以对冲下行。本周我们看到的看跌期权和看跌价差比2021年任何一周都多。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>  <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>  <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>  <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>  <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li> </ul> <b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周三(7/14)SPX gamma=+$4,625 B</li><li>周四(7/15)SPX gamma=+$3,620 B</li><li>周五(7/16)SPX gamma=+$3,136 B</li><li>周一(7/19)SPX gamma=+$2,698 B</li><li>周二(7/20)SPX Gamma=+$713B。</li></ul><b>在过去的5天里，多头标普500伽马减少了-85%，交易商的多头伽马减少了。</b>这种动态改变了市场行为，尽管成交量走高，但我们几乎没有看到系统覆盖的需求。这是新的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>9.系统性</b></u>-非经济风险已经接近最大敞口，并且几乎没有进一步增加的空间。到目前为止，还没有触发阈值水平，但重要的是要注意缺乏从这里添加的能力，这不对称地扭曲了下行方向。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>  <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>  <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>CTA</b>-1年排名90%百分位数，3年排名84%百分位数。</li><li><b>GS型号</b>-下周将出售90亿美元的股票。CTA是处于上涨带、下跌带、下跌大带的卖家。这并不常见。检查未来1个月的下行大不对称。</li><li><b>GS短期CTA ES1翻转电平</b>=$4,257.90.我们昨天跳闸了这个断路器，但是今天上午更高。我预计GS卖出预期会增加。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>b)体积控制-1年等级为86%百分位数，3年等级为75%百分位数。仅供参考。SPX看跌期权/看涨期权比率昨日创下一年新高。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>c)风险平价-1年等级为100%百分位数，3年等级为53%百分位数。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>d)总系统性–1年等级为92%百分位数，3年等级为80%百分位数。这很重要。这种非情绪化的需求是最大的，卖家会更低。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>10.流动资金</b></u>-非官方的Rubner外出展望(OOO)回复表。我上周的笔记是“几周后见”或“去钓鱼”的办公室回扣最多的一周。即将到来的杰克逊霍尔日历很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>  <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>  <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>  <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>  <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li> </ol> *** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>接下来的几周，12个月来首次延长假期，等等，因为杰克逊霍尔提前了。</li><li>杰克逊霍尔，8月26日（星期四）-8月28日（星期六）-周五可能是关键的日历，但周六也可能很重要。这将对冲移至下周。</li><li>劳动节，9月6日（周一交换假期）-今年晚些时候</li><li>大约孩子开学第一天，9月7日（星期二）</li><li>流动性=八月夏季-ZZZZ。在昨天的抛售中，账面流动性大幅下降。</li></ol>***尽管在清单中排名第10。这实际上是图表#1。昨天屏幕上的流动性大幅枯竭。该图表上周一达到3600万美元的峰值，昨天达到1081万美元。这意味着螺丝流动性在一周内下降了2500万美元或约70%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>11.回购</b></u>：回购来了，但股权发行也来了，中和了回购冲动。当公司遇到公司时。来自销售和交易同事John Flood在他最近的交易笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> <i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“这是一场纸面派对，而且这张纸面越来越难放置。上周我们在美国对11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周我们已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月深处尤其值得注意。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>  <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上周股票发行量为62亿美元，而2000年以来7月份每周平均发行量为34亿美元。</li><li>上周有27笔股票交易上市，而自2000年以来7月份平均每周15笔交易。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>底线：</b></i><i>在八月份把战术资金流清单放在你的雷达上。8月份技术市场结构动态发生较大变化</i><i><b>.我认为会有下跌（-5%），应该在杰克逊霍尔后期买入。</b></i><i>人们的共识是呼吁股市进行更大规模的调整，考虑到系统中的资本数量，我认为这是不可能的。如果我们在卖家走低时触发关键水平下跌，我会改变我的语气。如果8月份的资金外流确实发生，我认为鉴于高度集中和最大的被动影响，科技股的表现不如周期性价值重新开放。</i><i><b>一旦我们在8月份看到第一次流出，这将是战术性空头的宏观触发器</b></i><i>.敬请关注，紧盯流动性。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEntering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 15:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p><p><blockquote>这与本月初的看涨情绪截然不同，当时该行首次正确地指出，S&amp;P正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，7月1日至15日期间公布了一系列新高（在16日和19日抛售之前）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p><p><blockquote>...在对为什么“空头必须回补”进行冗长的合理化解释之后，高盛最近几天出人意料地变得看跌，在高盛流量交易员约翰·弗洛德周一敦促高盛客户“不要逢低买入”两天后（剧透警告：他们做到了），他的交易部门同事斯科特·鲁布纳（Scott Rubner）发表了一份报告，预览了为什么他预计未来几天会出现调整，并将持续到8月底的杰克逊霍尔研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p><p><blockquote>我们在下面摘录他的报告，其中包含高盛8月份“修正”论点背后的关键论点，包括战术性资金流动、卖家加速以及GS股票交易大厅的反馈。</blockquote></p><p> So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p><p><blockquote>所以事不宜迟，下面是鲁布纳，他展示了他的“<b><i>8月份修正的11点清单”</i></b>，首先注意到“<i>过去48小时内我收件箱/IB中出现的第一个问题。当资金外流且购买需求放缓时，股市会发生什么？</i>正如我们在下面读到的，最合适的答案是“没什么好的。”</blockquote></p><p>   <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i>   <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>  <u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p><p><blockquote><i>11点清单-一致的客户反馈，以快速降低股票风险，从而降低杰克逊霍尔的潜在购买需求。共识反馈似乎要求修正-5%，实际上达到了-4%。这是本周即将进入你收件箱的话题的回顾。我认为今天早上的反弹会随着当天早些时候买票的完成而消退。</i><i><b>“逢高卖出”是与逢低买入的新动态。</b></i><u><b>1.季节性疲软</b></u>——自1928年以来，我们刚刚结束了一年中最好的两周时期。周五期权到期结束了一年中最好的季节性时期。<b>八月季节性对市场不利，整个八月呈下降趋势，为一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期</b>.今天你在这里，杰克逊霍尔是这张图表的低点。自1950年以来，72年来，S&amp;P指数有19次在上半年上涨至少超过10%。在强劲的1H之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降-51个基点，然后反弹走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>2.年度最大流出量</b></u>-投资者在7月份向市场分配资金，我们已经看到了这些创纪录的资金流入。这是今年股市最大的动态。资金流入继续以创纪录的速度增长，2021年年流入量为1.2万亿美元。401k资金主要流入S&amp;P和NDX，而不是ROW。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.8月份预测流量的逆转</b></u>——8月份股权流入并不常见。在过去的30年里，<b>八月通常是一年中最大的资金流出</b>.-15个基点的资产管理规模通常会在8月份离开股市基金，我们模拟价值约22万亿美元的股票待售。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>4.流出续。</u></b>需要明确的是，-330亿美元在调整市值后并不是一个重要的数字，但更重要的是它不是流入。鉴于资金流入抬高了最大和最大市值指数权重，该指数水平仍保持在ATHs。周一，我们看到一个巨大的MOC失衡出售，这是不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>5.被动流动推动最大市值</b></u>-仅在今年上半年，被动型ETF就创下了有记录以来最好的全年资金流入。(+500b)。我每天都看录像带记录大量的MOC失衡在美国东部时间下午3:50购买，<b>但是如果这种动力消失了呢？</b>请记住，流入SPDR标普500指数ETF的1美元将流入前5名公司0.23美分，流入QQQ的1美元将流入前5名公司0.41美分。如果流入转为流出，您将不再看到广泛的指数动态。<b>那么投资者需要决定哪个板块成为流出的资金来源。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p><p><blockquote>这对标普500有多重要？重要的！</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>  <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>  <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>  <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>全球股票：1年期：+600B美元被动（入）与0.0 B美元主动（出）=&gt;600B美元。</li><li>全球股票：5年期：+$2.30 T被动（入）vs.-$1.90 T主动（出）=&gt;$4.2 T</li><li>全球股票：10年期：+$4T被动（入）vs.-$3.0 T主动（出）=&gt;$7.0 T</li><li>当前全球股票主动资产管理规模为10.099吨，超过当前全球股票被动资产管理规模7.225吨。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>旁注：ETF占名义执行量的36%，为2020年3月/4月以来的最后水平。（年初至今平均值）=24%。你看到SQQQ周一的巨量（3倍空头QQQ）了吗？</i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>六、单一股票评级</b></u>-这是非常类似于2020年7月和8月看涨期权期权交易的结果吹顶。提醒一下，在看涨期权期权交易量开始消退后，标准普尔在2020年9月抛售了-392个基点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>  <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>  <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>  <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>7月份，Option notional的平均交易量创下了每天+5500亿美元的历史纪录。交易量最大的3只股票（AAPL、AMZN和TSLA）的日交易量为300B美元。期权和股票的广度都很低。</li><li>“在4000份可交易的单一股票期权中，前3名占每日平均名义交易量的56%。加上接下来的7份，这一比例跃升至72%。”</li><li>“换句话说，前10名底层股票平均每天的名义交易量是底部3990点的3倍”</li><li>这是一个需要监控的重要动态。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>7.看涨期权期权续。</b></u>-零售业已从每周在GME和AMC上交易看涨期权期权（每天名义价值仅为6B美元）转向居家策略。每日期权交易量最高的公司也是指数权重最大的公司。除了ETF流量之外，散户看涨期权期权购买狂潮也导致了单一股票的街头空头每周伽马值。今天交易的75%的单一股票期权的到期时间为两周或更短。<b>换句话说，鉴于GS YOLO风险情绪篮子已经滚动，AAPL下一步是否需要赶上（或者至少看不到YOLO流量）。</b></blockquote></p><p> $181bln/day AMZN</p><p><blockquote>1810亿美元/天AMZN</blockquote></p><p> $ 82bln/day TSLA</p><p><blockquote>820亿美元/天TSLA</blockquote></p><p> $ 36bln/day AAPL</p><p><blockquote>360亿美元/天AAPL</blockquote></p><p> --------------</p><p><blockquote>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>TSLA/AMZN/AAPL总额：2990亿美元/天——如果大型科技股的看涨期权交易量下降会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>  <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>  <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>  <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>260亿美元/天NVDA</li><li>140亿美元/天GOOGL</li><li>110亿美元/天FB</li><li>100亿美元/天MSFT</li><li>80亿美元/天的商店</li><li>80亿美元/天GOOG</li><li>80亿美元/天NFLX</li><li>70亿美元/天阿里巴巴</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA总计：900亿美元/天</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>40亿美元/天AMC</li><li>20亿美元/天GME</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC/GME总额：60亿美元/天——没有莫约洛？见下图。</b></blockquote></p><p> All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p><p><blockquote>所有其他基础资产：1410亿美元/天</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>单一股票期权市场总额：</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>  <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>  <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li> </ul> --------------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2990亿美元/天TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li><li>900亿美元/天GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li><li>60亿美元/天AMC/GME</li><li>1410亿美元/天所有其他基础</li></ul>--------------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>$537bln/day Total</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5370亿美元/天总计</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>8.期权Gamma平仓</u></b>-期权到期刚刚下跌-85%的市场多头伽马。市场现在有能力更自由地波动，交易更少的多头伽马。上周的每一天，随着交易商重新对冲他们的伽马（逢低买入），市场都会在收盘时反弹。我担心没有伽马对冲和被动需求的夏季日终流动性。我认为还将有“机构”需求购买杰克逊霍尔对冲基金，消除多头伽马，让华尔街做空以对冲下行。本周我们看到的看跌期权和看跌价差比2021年任何一周都多。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>  <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>  <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>  <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>  <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li> </ul> <b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周三(7/14)SPX gamma=+$4,625 B</li><li>周四(7/15)SPX gamma=+$3,620 B</li><li>周五(7/16)SPX gamma=+$3,136 B</li><li>周一(7/19)SPX gamma=+$2,698 B</li><li>周二(7/20)SPX Gamma=+$713B。</li></ul><b>在过去的5天里，多头标普500伽马减少了-85%，交易商的多头伽马减少了。</b>这种动态改变了市场行为，尽管成交量走高，但我们几乎没有看到系统覆盖的需求。这是新的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>9.系统性</b></u>-非经济风险已经接近最大敞口，并且几乎没有进一步增加的空间。到目前为止，还没有触发阈值水平，但重要的是要注意缺乏从这里添加的能力，这不对称地扭曲了下行方向。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>  <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>  <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>CTA</b>-1年排名90%百分位数，3年排名84%百分位数。</li><li><b>GS型号</b>-下周将出售90亿美元的股票。CTA是处于上涨带、下跌带、下跌大带的卖家。这并不常见。检查未来1个月的下行大不对称。</li><li><b>GS短期CTA ES1翻转电平</b>=$4,257.90.我们昨天跳闸了这个断路器，但是今天上午更高。我预计GS卖出预期会增加。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>b)体积控制-1年等级为86%百分位数，3年等级为75%百分位数。仅供参考。SPX看跌期权/看涨期权比率昨日创下一年新高。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>c)风险平价-1年等级为100%百分位数，3年等级为53%百分位数。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>d)总系统性–1年等级为92%百分位数，3年等级为80%百分位数。这很重要。这种非情绪化的需求是最大的，卖家会更低。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>10.流动资金</b></u>-非官方的Rubner外出展望(OOO)回复表。我上周的笔记是“几周后见”或“去钓鱼”的办公室回扣最多的一周。即将到来的杰克逊霍尔日历很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>  <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>  <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>  <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>  <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li> </ol> *** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>接下来的几周，12个月来首次延长假期，等等，因为杰克逊霍尔提前了。</li><li>杰克逊霍尔，8月26日（星期四）-8月28日（星期六）-周五可能是关键的日历，但周六也可能很重要。这将对冲移至下周。</li><li>劳动节，9月6日（周一交换假期）-今年晚些时候</li><li>大约孩子开学第一天，9月7日（星期二）</li><li>流动性=八月夏季-ZZZZ。在昨天的抛售中，账面流动性大幅下降。</li></ol>***尽管在清单中排名第10。这实际上是图表#1。昨天屏幕上的流动性大幅枯竭。该图表上周一达到3600万美元的峰值，昨天达到1081万美元。这意味着螺丝流动性在一周内下降了2500万美元或约70%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>11.回购</b></u>：回购来了，但股权发行也来了，中和了回购冲动。当公司遇到公司时。来自销售和交易同事John Flood在他最近的交易笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> <i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“这是一场纸面派对，而且这张纸面越来越难放置。上周我们在美国对11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周我们已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月深处尤其值得注意。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>  <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上周股票发行量为62亿美元，而2000年以来7月份每周平均发行量为34亿美元。</li><li>上周有27笔股票交易上市，而自2000年以来7月份平均每周15笔交易。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>底线：</b></i><i>在八月份把战术资金流清单放在你的雷达上。8月份技术市场结构动态发生较大变化</i><i><b>.我认为会有下跌（-5%），应该在杰克逊霍尔后期买入。</b></i><i>人们的共识是呼吁股市进行更大规模的调整，考虑到系统中的资本数量，我认为这是不可能的。如果我们在卖家走低时触发关键水平下跌，我会改变我的语气。如果8月份的资金外流确实发生，我认为鉴于高度集中和最大的被动影响，科技股的表现不如周期性价值重新开放。</i><i><b>一旦我们在8月份看到第一次流出，这将是战术性空头的宏观触发器</b></i><i>.敬请关注，紧盯流动性。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192458370","content_text":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...\n\n... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.\nHis note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.\nSo without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"11 point checklist for an August correction\", starting by noting that \"the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"\n\n11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.\n“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.\n\n1. Weak Seasonals- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&P is up at least >10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.\n\n2. Largest outflows of the year- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&P and NDX rather than ROW.\n\n3. Reversal of flows predicted for August- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,August typically sees the largest outflows of the year. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.\n\n4. Outflows cont.To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.\n\n5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,but what if this dynamic fades.Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.\nJust how important has this been for the S&P 500? Important!\n\nGlobal Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = >$600B.\nGlobal Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = >$4.2T\nGlobal Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = >$7.0T\nCurrent Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds > Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.\n\n\nSide note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?\n6. Single Stock Calls- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.\n\nOption notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.\n\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"\n\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”\nThis is an important dynamic to monitor.\n\n\n7. Call Options cont.- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).\n$181bln/day AMZN\n$ 82bln/day TSLA\n$ 36bln/day AAPL\n--------------\nTOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day  ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?\n\n$ 26bln/day NVDA\n$ 14bln/day GOOGL\n$ 11bln/day FB\n$ 10bln/day MSFT\n$  8bln/day SHOP\n$  8bln/day GOOG\n$  8bln/day NFLX\n$  7bln/day BABA\n\n--------------\nTOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day\n\n$  4bln/day AMC\n$  2bln/day GME\n\n--------------\nTOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day  ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.\nAll other underlyings: $141bln/day\nTotal single stock option market:\n\n$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL\n$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA\n$  6bln/day AMC/GME\n$141bln/day All other underlyings\n\n--------------------\n$537bln/day Total\n\n8. Option Gamma Unwinds- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.\n\nWednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B\nThursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B\nFriday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B\nMonday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B\nTuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.\n\nthe Long S&P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.\n\n9. Systematic- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.\n\nCTA- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.\nGS models-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.\nGS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.\n\n\nb) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.\n\nc) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.\n\nd) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.\n\n10. Liquidity- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.\n\nnext few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.\nJackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.\nLabor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year\napproximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)\nLiquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.\n\n*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.\n\n11. Buybacks: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.\n“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“\n\nLast week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.\nLast week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.\n\n\nBottom Line:Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172882146,"gmtCreate":1626951719785,"gmtModify":1633769458573,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"FUD","listText":"FUD","text":"FUD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172882146","repostId":"1192458370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192458370","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626938362,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192458370?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 15:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192458370","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - ","content":"<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p><p><blockquote>这与本月初的看涨情绪截然不同，当时该行首次正确地指出，S&amp;P正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，7月1日至15日期间公布了一系列新高（在16日和19日抛售之前）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p><p><blockquote>...在对为什么“空头必须回补”进行冗长的合理化解释之后，高盛最近几天出人意料地变得看跌，在高盛流量交易员约翰·弗洛德周一敦促高盛客户“不要逢低买入”两天后（剧透警告：他们做到了），他的交易部门同事斯科特·鲁布纳（Scott Rubner）发表了一份报告，预览了为什么他预计未来几天会出现调整，并将持续到8月底的杰克逊霍尔研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p><p><blockquote>我们在下面摘录他的报告，其中包含高盛8月份“修正”论点背后的关键论点，包括战术性资金流动、卖家加速以及GS股票交易大厅的反馈。</blockquote></p><p> So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p><p><blockquote>所以事不宜迟，下面是鲁布纳，他展示了他的“<b><i>8月份修正的11点清单”</i></b>，首先注意到“<i>过去48小时内我收件箱/IB中出现的第一个问题。当资金外流且购买需求放缓时，股市会发生什么？</i>正如我们在下面读到的，最合适的答案是“没什么好的。”</blockquote></p><p>   <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i>   <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>  <u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p><p><blockquote><i>11点清单-一致的客户反馈，以快速降低股票风险，从而降低杰克逊霍尔的潜在购买需求。共识反馈似乎要求修正-5%，实际上达到了-4%。这是本周即将进入你收件箱的话题的回顾。我认为今天早上的反弹会随着当天早些时候买票的完成而消退。</i><i><b>“逢高卖出”是与逢低买入的新动态。</b></i><u><b>1.季节性疲软</b></u>——自1928年以来，我们刚刚结束了一年中最好的两周时期。周五期权到期结束了一年中最好的季节性时期。<b>八月季节性对市场不利，整个八月呈下降趋势，为一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期</b>.今天你在这里，杰克逊霍尔是这张图表的低点。自1950年以来，72年来，S&amp;P指数有19次在上半年上涨至少超过10%。在强劲的1H之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降-51个基点，然后反弹走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>2.年度最大流出量</b></u>-投资者在7月份向市场分配资金，我们已经看到了这些创纪录的资金流入。这是今年股市最大的动态。资金流入继续以创纪录的速度增长，2021年年流入量为1.2万亿美元。401k资金主要流入S&amp;P和NDX，而不是ROW。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.8月份预测流量的逆转</b></u>——8月份股权流入并不常见。在过去的30年里，<b>八月通常是一年中最大的资金流出</b>.-15个基点的资产管理规模通常会在8月份离开股市基金，我们模拟价值约22万亿美元的股票待售。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>4.流出续。</u></b>需要明确的是，-330亿美元在调整市值后并不是一个重要的数字，但更重要的是它不是流入。鉴于资金流入抬高了最大和最大市值指数权重，该指数水平仍保持在ATHs。周一，我们看到一个巨大的MOC失衡出售，这是不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>5.被动流动推动最大市值</b></u>-仅在今年上半年，被动型ETF就创下了有记录以来最好的全年资金流入。(+500b)。我每天都看录像带记录大量的MOC失衡在美国东部时间下午3:50购买，<b>但是如果这种动力消失了呢？</b>请记住，流入SPDR标普500指数ETF的1美元将流入前5名公司0.23美分，流入QQQ的1美元将流入前5名公司0.41美分。如果流入转为流出，您将不再看到广泛的指数动态。<b>那么投资者需要决定哪个板块成为流出的资金来源。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p><p><blockquote>这对标普500有多重要？重要的！</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>  <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>  <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>  <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>全球股票：1年期：+600B美元被动（入）与0.0 B美元主动（出）=&gt;600B美元。</li><li>全球股票：5年期：+$2.30 T被动（入）vs.-$1.90 T主动（出）=&gt;$4.2 T</li><li>全球股票：10年期：+$4T被动（入）vs.-$3.0 T主动（出）=&gt;$7.0 T</li><li>当前全球股票主动资产管理规模为10.099吨，超过当前全球股票被动资产管理规模7.225吨。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>旁注：ETF占名义执行量的36%，为2020年3月/4月以来的最后水平。（年初至今平均值）=24%。你看到SQQQ周一的巨量（3倍空头QQQ）了吗？</i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>六、单一股票评级</b></u>-这是非常类似于2020年7月和8月看涨期权期权交易的结果吹顶。提醒一下，在看涨期权期权交易量开始消退后，标准普尔在2020年9月抛售了-392个基点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>  <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>  <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>  <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>7月份，Option notional的平均交易量创下了每天+5500亿美元的历史纪录。交易量最大的3只股票（AAPL、AMZN和TSLA）的日交易量为300B美元。期权和股票的广度都很低。</li><li>“在4000份可交易的单一股票期权中，前3名占每日平均名义交易量的56%。加上接下来的7份，这一比例跃升至72%。”</li><li>“换句话说，前10名底层股票平均每天的名义交易量是底部3990点的3倍”</li><li>这是一个需要监控的重要动态。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>7.看涨期权期权续。</b></u>-零售业已从每周在GME和AMC上交易看涨期权期权（每天名义价值仅为6B美元）转向居家策略。每日期权交易量最高的公司也是指数权重最大的公司。除了ETF流量之外，散户看涨期权期权购买狂潮也导致了单一股票的街头空头每周伽马值。今天交易的75%的单一股票期权的到期时间为两周或更短。<b>换句话说，鉴于GS YOLO风险情绪篮子已经滚动，AAPL下一步是否需要赶上（或者至少看不到YOLO流量）。</b></blockquote></p><p> $181bln/day AMZN</p><p><blockquote>1810亿美元/天AMZN</blockquote></p><p> $ 82bln/day TSLA</p><p><blockquote>820亿美元/天TSLA</blockquote></p><p> $ 36bln/day AAPL</p><p><blockquote>360亿美元/天AAPL</blockquote></p><p> --------------</p><p><blockquote>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>TSLA/AMZN/AAPL总额：2990亿美元/天——如果大型科技股的看涨期权交易量下降会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>  <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>  <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>  <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>260亿美元/天NVDA</li><li>140亿美元/天GOOGL</li><li>110亿美元/天FB</li><li>100亿美元/天MSFT</li><li>80亿美元/天的商店</li><li>80亿美元/天GOOG</li><li>80亿美元/天NFLX</li><li>70亿美元/天阿里巴巴</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA总计：900亿美元/天</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>40亿美元/天AMC</li><li>20亿美元/天GME</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC/GME总额：60亿美元/天——没有莫约洛？见下图。</b></blockquote></p><p> All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p><p><blockquote>所有其他基础资产：1410亿美元/天</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>单一股票期权市场总额：</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>  <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>  <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li> </ul> --------------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2990亿美元/天TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li><li>900亿美元/天GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li><li>60亿美元/天AMC/GME</li><li>1410亿美元/天所有其他基础</li></ul>--------------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>$537bln/day Total</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5370亿美元/天总计</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>8.期权Gamma平仓</u></b>-期权到期刚刚下跌-85%的市场多头伽马。市场现在有能力更自由地波动，交易更少的多头伽马。上周的每一天，随着交易商重新对冲他们的伽马（逢低买入），市场都会在收盘时反弹。我担心没有伽马对冲和被动需求的夏季日终流动性。我认为还将有“机构”需求购买杰克逊霍尔对冲基金，消除多头伽马，让华尔街做空以对冲下行。本周我们看到的看跌期权和看跌价差比2021年任何一周都多。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>  <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>  <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>  <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>  <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li> </ul> <b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周三(7/14)SPX gamma=+$4,625 B</li><li>周四(7/15)SPX gamma=+$3,620 B</li><li>周五(7/16)SPX gamma=+$3,136 B</li><li>周一(7/19)SPX gamma=+$2,698 B</li><li>周二(7/20)SPX Gamma=+$713B。</li></ul><b>在过去的5天里，多头标普500伽马减少了-85%，交易商的多头伽马减少了。</b>这种动态改变了市场行为，尽管成交量走高，但我们几乎没有看到系统覆盖的需求。这是新的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>9.系统性</b></u>-非经济风险已经接近最大敞口，并且几乎没有进一步增加的空间。到目前为止，还没有触发阈值水平，但重要的是要注意缺乏从这里添加的能力，这不对称地扭曲了下行方向。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>  <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>  <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>CTA</b>-1年排名90%百分位数，3年排名84%百分位数。</li><li><b>GS型号</b>-下周将出售90亿美元的股票。CTA是处于上涨带、下跌带、下跌大带的卖家。这并不常见。检查未来1个月的下行大不对称。</li><li><b>GS短期CTA ES1翻转电平</b>=$4,257.90.我们昨天跳闸了这个断路器，但是今天上午更高。我预计GS卖出预期会增加。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>b)体积控制-1年等级为86%百分位数，3年等级为75%百分位数。仅供参考。SPX看跌期权/看涨期权比率昨日创下一年新高。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>c)风险平价-1年等级为100%百分位数，3年等级为53%百分位数。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>d)总系统性–1年等级为92%百分位数，3年等级为80%百分位数。这很重要。这种非情绪化的需求是最大的，卖家会更低。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>10.流动资金</b></u>-非官方的Rubner外出展望(OOO)回复表。我上周的笔记是“几周后见”或“去钓鱼”的办公室回扣最多的一周。即将到来的杰克逊霍尔日历很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>  <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>  <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>  <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>  <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li> </ol> *** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>接下来的几周，12个月来首次延长假期，等等，因为杰克逊霍尔提前了。</li><li>杰克逊霍尔，8月26日（星期四）-8月28日（星期六）-周五可能是关键的日历，但周六也可能很重要。这将对冲移至下周。</li><li>劳动节，9月6日（周一交换假期）-今年晚些时候</li><li>大约孩子开学第一天，9月7日（星期二）</li><li>流动性=八月夏季-ZZZZ。在昨天的抛售中，账面流动性大幅下降。</li></ol>***尽管在清单中排名第10。这实际上是图表#1。昨天屏幕上的流动性大幅枯竭。该图表上周一达到3600万美元的峰值，昨天达到1081万美元。这意味着螺丝流动性在一周内下降了2500万美元或约70%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>11.回购</b></u>：回购来了，但股权发行也来了，中和了回购冲动。当公司遇到公司时。来自销售和交易同事John Flood在他最近的交易笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> <i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“这是一场纸面派对，而且这张纸面越来越难放置。上周我们在美国对11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周我们已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月深处尤其值得注意。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>  <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上周股票发行量为62亿美元，而2000年以来7月份每周平均发行量为34亿美元。</li><li>上周有27笔股票交易上市，而自2000年以来7月份平均每周15笔交易。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>底线：</b></i><i>在八月份把战术资金流清单放在你的雷达上。8月份技术市场结构动态发生较大变化</i><i><b>.我认为会有下跌（-5%），应该在杰克逊霍尔后期买入。</b></i><i>人们的共识是呼吁股市进行更大规模的调整，考虑到系统中的资本数量，我认为这是不可能的。如果我们在卖家走低时触发关键水平下跌，我会改变我的语气。如果8月份的资金外流确实发生，我认为鉴于高度集中和最大的被动影响，科技股的表现不如周期性价值重新开放。</i><i><b>一旦我们在8月份看到第一次流出，这将是战术性空头的宏观触发器</b></i><i>.敬请关注，紧盯流动性。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEntering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction<blockquote>进入一年中最糟糕的季节性时期，以及高盛准备迎接8月份调整的其他10个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 15:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p><p><blockquote>这与本月初的看涨情绪截然不同，当时该行首次正确地指出，S&amp;P正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，7月1日至15日期间公布了一系列新高（在16日和19日抛售之前）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p><p><blockquote>...在对为什么“空头必须回补”进行冗长的合理化解释之后，高盛最近几天出人意料地变得看跌，在高盛流量交易员约翰·弗洛德周一敦促高盛客户“不要逢低买入”两天后（剧透警告：他们做到了），他的交易部门同事斯科特·鲁布纳（Scott Rubner）发表了一份报告，预览了为什么他预计未来几天会出现调整，并将持续到8月底的杰克逊霍尔研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p><p><blockquote>我们在下面摘录他的报告，其中包含高盛8月份“修正”论点背后的关键论点，包括战术性资金流动、卖家加速以及GS股票交易大厅的反馈。</blockquote></p><p> So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p><p><blockquote>所以事不宜迟，下面是鲁布纳，他展示了他的“<b><i>8月份修正的11点清单”</i></b>，首先注意到“<i>过去48小时内我收件箱/IB中出现的第一个问题。当资金外流且购买需求放缓时，股市会发生什么？</i>正如我们在下面读到的，最合适的答案是“没什么好的。”</blockquote></p><p>   <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i>   <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>  <u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p><p><blockquote><i>11点清单-一致的客户反馈，以快速降低股票风险，从而降低杰克逊霍尔的潜在购买需求。共识反馈似乎要求修正-5%，实际上达到了-4%。这是本周即将进入你收件箱的话题的回顾。我认为今天早上的反弹会随着当天早些时候买票的完成而消退。</i><i><b>“逢高卖出”是与逢低买入的新动态。</b></i><u><b>1.季节性疲软</b></u>——自1928年以来，我们刚刚结束了一年中最好的两周时期。周五期权到期结束了一年中最好的季节性时期。<b>八月季节性对市场不利，整个八月呈下降趋势，为一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期</b>.今天你在这里，杰克逊霍尔是这张图表的低点。自1950年以来，72年来，S&amp;P指数有19次在上半年上涨至少超过10%。在强劲的1H之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降-51个基点，然后反弹走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>2.年度最大流出量</b></u>-投资者在7月份向市场分配资金，我们已经看到了这些创纪录的资金流入。这是今年股市最大的动态。资金流入继续以创纪录的速度增长，2021年年流入量为1.2万亿美元。401k资金主要流入S&amp;P和NDX，而不是ROW。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.8月份预测流量的逆转</b></u>——8月份股权流入并不常见。在过去的30年里，<b>八月通常是一年中最大的资金流出</b>.-15个基点的资产管理规模通常会在8月份离开股市基金，我们模拟价值约22万亿美元的股票待售。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>4.流出续。</u></b>需要明确的是，-330亿美元在调整市值后并不是一个重要的数字，但更重要的是它不是流入。鉴于资金流入抬高了最大和最大市值指数权重，该指数水平仍保持在ATHs。周一，我们看到一个巨大的MOC失衡出售，这是不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>5.被动流动推动最大市值</b></u>-仅在今年上半年，被动型ETF就创下了有记录以来最好的全年资金流入。(+500b)。我每天都看录像带记录大量的MOC失衡在美国东部时间下午3:50购买，<b>但是如果这种动力消失了呢？</b>请记住，流入SPDR标普500指数ETF的1美元将流入前5名公司0.23美分，流入QQQ的1美元将流入前5名公司0.41美分。如果流入转为流出，您将不再看到广泛的指数动态。<b>那么投资者需要决定哪个板块成为流出的资金来源。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p><p><blockquote>这对标普500有多重要？重要的！</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>  <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>  <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>  <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>全球股票：1年期：+600B美元被动（入）与0.0 B美元主动（出）=&gt;600B美元。</li><li>全球股票：5年期：+$2.30 T被动（入）vs.-$1.90 T主动（出）=&gt;$4.2 T</li><li>全球股票：10年期：+$4T被动（入）vs.-$3.0 T主动（出）=&gt;$7.0 T</li><li>当前全球股票主动资产管理规模为10.099吨，超过当前全球股票被动资产管理规模7.225吨。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>旁注：ETF占名义执行量的36%，为2020年3月/4月以来的最后水平。（年初至今平均值）=24%。你看到SQQQ周一的巨量（3倍空头QQQ）了吗？</i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>六、单一股票评级</b></u>-这是非常类似于2020年7月和8月看涨期权期权交易的结果吹顶。提醒一下，在看涨期权期权交易量开始消退后，标准普尔在2020年9月抛售了-392个基点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>  <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>  <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>  <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>7月份，Option notional的平均交易量创下了每天+5500亿美元的历史纪录。交易量最大的3只股票（AAPL、AMZN和TSLA）的日交易量为300B美元。期权和股票的广度都很低。</li><li>“在4000份可交易的单一股票期权中，前3名占每日平均名义交易量的56%。加上接下来的7份，这一比例跃升至72%。”</li><li>“换句话说，前10名底层股票平均每天的名义交易量是底部3990点的3倍”</li><li>这是一个需要监控的重要动态。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p><p><blockquote><u><b>7.看涨期权期权续。</b></u>-零售业已从每周在GME和AMC上交易看涨期权期权（每天名义价值仅为6B美元）转向居家策略。每日期权交易量最高的公司也是指数权重最大的公司。除了ETF流量之外，散户看涨期权期权购买狂潮也导致了单一股票的街头空头每周伽马值。今天交易的75%的单一股票期权的到期时间为两周或更短。<b>换句话说，鉴于GS YOLO风险情绪篮子已经滚动，AAPL下一步是否需要赶上（或者至少看不到YOLO流量）。</b></blockquote></p><p> $181bln/day AMZN</p><p><blockquote>1810亿美元/天AMZN</blockquote></p><p> $ 82bln/day TSLA</p><p><blockquote>820亿美元/天TSLA</blockquote></p><p> $ 36bln/day AAPL</p><p><blockquote>360亿美元/天AAPL</blockquote></p><p> --------------</p><p><blockquote>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>TSLA/AMZN/AAPL总额：2990亿美元/天——如果大型科技股的看涨期权交易量下降会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>  <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>  <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>  <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>260亿美元/天NVDA</li><li>140亿美元/天GOOGL</li><li>110亿美元/天FB</li><li>100亿美元/天MSFT</li><li>80亿美元/天的商店</li><li>80亿美元/天GOOG</li><li>80亿美元/天NFLX</li><li>70亿美元/天阿里巴巴</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA总计：900亿美元/天</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li> </ul> --------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>40亿美元/天AMC</li><li>20亿美元/天GME</li></ul>--------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC/GME总额：60亿美元/天——没有莫约洛？见下图。</b></blockquote></p><p> All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p><p><blockquote>所有其他基础资产：1410亿美元/天</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>单一股票期权市场总额：</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>  <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>  <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>  <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li> </ul> --------------------</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2990亿美元/天TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li><li>900亿美元/天GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li><li>60亿美元/天AMC/GME</li><li>1410亿美元/天所有其他基础</li></ul>--------------------</blockquote></p><p> <b>$537bln/day Total</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5370亿美元/天总计</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p><p><blockquote><b><u>8.期权Gamma平仓</u></b>-期权到期刚刚下跌-85%的市场多头伽马。市场现在有能力更自由地波动，交易更少的多头伽马。上周的每一天，随着交易商重新对冲他们的伽马（逢低买入），市场都会在收盘时反弹。我担心没有伽马对冲和被动需求的夏季日终流动性。我认为还将有“机构”需求购买杰克逊霍尔对冲基金，消除多头伽马，让华尔街做空以对冲下行。本周我们看到的看跌期权和看跌价差比2021年任何一周都多。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>  <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>  <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>  <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>  <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li> </ul> <b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周三(7/14)SPX gamma=+$4,625 B</li><li>周四(7/15)SPX gamma=+$3,620 B</li><li>周五(7/16)SPX gamma=+$3,136 B</li><li>周一(7/19)SPX gamma=+$2,698 B</li><li>周二(7/20)SPX Gamma=+$713B。</li></ul><b>在过去的5天里，多头标普500伽马减少了-85%，交易商的多头伽马减少了。</b>这种动态改变了市场行为，尽管成交量走高，但我们几乎没有看到系统覆盖的需求。这是新的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>9.系统性</b></u>-非经济风险已经接近最大敞口，并且几乎没有进一步增加的空间。到目前为止，还没有触发阈值水平，但重要的是要注意缺乏从这里添加的能力，这不对称地扭曲了下行方向。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>  <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>  <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>CTA</b>-1年排名90%百分位数，3年排名84%百分位数。</li><li><b>GS型号</b>-下周将出售90亿美元的股票。CTA是处于上涨带、下跌带、下跌大带的卖家。这并不常见。检查未来1个月的下行大不对称。</li><li><b>GS短期CTA ES1翻转电平</b>=$4,257.90.我们昨天跳闸了这个断路器，但是今天上午更高。我预计GS卖出预期会增加。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>b)体积控制-1年等级为86%百分位数，3年等级为75%百分位数。仅供参考。SPX看跌期权/看涨期权比率昨日创下一年新高。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>c)风险平价-1年等级为100%百分位数，3年等级为53%百分位数。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>d)总系统性–1年等级为92%百分位数，3年等级为80%百分位数。这很重要。这种非情绪化的需求是最大的，卖家会更低。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>10.流动资金</b></u>-非官方的Rubner外出展望(OOO)回复表。我上周的笔记是“几周后见”或“去钓鱼”的办公室回扣最多的一周。即将到来的杰克逊霍尔日历很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>  <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>  <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>  <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>  <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li> </ol> *** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>接下来的几周，12个月来首次延长假期，等等，因为杰克逊霍尔提前了。</li><li>杰克逊霍尔，8月26日（星期四）-8月28日（星期六）-周五可能是关键的日历，但周六也可能很重要。这将对冲移至下周。</li><li>劳动节，9月6日（周一交换假期）-今年晚些时候</li><li>大约孩子开学第一天，9月7日（星期二）</li><li>流动性=八月夏季-ZZZZ。在昨天的抛售中，账面流动性大幅下降。</li></ol>***尽管在清单中排名第10。这实际上是图表#1。昨天屏幕上的流动性大幅枯竭。该图表上周一达到3600万美元的峰值，昨天达到1081万美元。这意味着螺丝流动性在一周内下降了2500万美元或约70%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p><p><blockquote><u><b>11.回购</b></u>：回购来了，但股权发行也来了，中和了回购冲动。当公司遇到公司时。来自销售和交易同事John Flood在他最近的交易笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> <i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“这是一场纸面派对，而且这张纸面越来越难放置。上周我们在美国对11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周我们已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月深处尤其值得注意。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>  <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>上周股票发行量为62亿美元，而2000年以来7月份每周平均发行量为34亿美元。</li><li>上周有27笔股票交易上市，而自2000年以来7月份平均每周15笔交易。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>底线：</b></i><i>在八月份把战术资金流清单放在你的雷达上。8月份技术市场结构动态发生较大变化</i><i><b>.我认为会有下跌（-5%），应该在杰克逊霍尔后期买入。</b></i><i>人们的共识是呼吁股市进行更大规模的调整，考虑到系统中的资本数量，我认为这是不可能的。如果我们在卖家走低时触发关键水平下跌，我会改变我的语气。如果8月份的资金外流确实发生，我认为鉴于高度集中和最大的被动影响，科技股的表现不如周期性价值重新开放。</i><i><b>一旦我们在8月份看到第一次流出，这将是战术性空头的宏观触发器</b></i><i>.敬请关注，紧盯流动性。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192458370","content_text":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...\n\n... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.\nHis note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.\nSo without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"11 point checklist for an August correction\", starting by noting that \"the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"\n\n11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.\n“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.\n\n1. Weak Seasonals- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&P is up at least >10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.\n\n2. Largest outflows of the year- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&P and NDX rather than ROW.\n\n3. Reversal of flows predicted for August- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,August typically sees the largest outflows of the year. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.\n\n4. Outflows cont.To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.\n\n5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,but what if this dynamic fades.Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.\nJust how important has this been for the S&P 500? Important!\n\nGlobal Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = >$600B.\nGlobal Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = >$4.2T\nGlobal Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = >$7.0T\nCurrent Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds > Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.\n\n\nSide note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?\n6. Single Stock Calls- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.\n\nOption notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.\n\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"\n\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”\nThis is an important dynamic to monitor.\n\n\n7. Call Options cont.- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).\n$181bln/day AMZN\n$ 82bln/day TSLA\n$ 36bln/day AAPL\n--------------\nTOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day  ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?\n\n$ 26bln/day NVDA\n$ 14bln/day GOOGL\n$ 11bln/day FB\n$ 10bln/day MSFT\n$  8bln/day SHOP\n$  8bln/day GOOG\n$  8bln/day NFLX\n$  7bln/day BABA\n\n--------------\nTOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day\n\n$  4bln/day AMC\n$  2bln/day GME\n\n--------------\nTOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day  ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.\nAll other underlyings: $141bln/day\nTotal single stock option market:\n\n$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL\n$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA\n$  6bln/day AMC/GME\n$141bln/day All other underlyings\n\n--------------------\n$537bln/day Total\n\n8. Option Gamma Unwinds- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.\n\nWednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B\nThursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B\nFriday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B\nMonday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B\nTuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.\n\nthe Long S&P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.\n\n9. Systematic- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.\n\nCTA- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.\nGS models-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.\nGS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.\n\n\nb) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.\n\nc) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.\n\nd) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.\n\n10. Liquidity- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.\n\nnext few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.\nJackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.\nLabor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year\napproximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)\nLiquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.\n\n*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.\n\n11. Buybacks: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.\n“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“\n\nLast week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.\nLast week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.\n\n\nBottom Line:Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150263508,"gmtCreate":1624911556704,"gmtModify":1633947203108,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sick..&nbsp;","listText":"Sick..&nbsp;","text":"Sick..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150263508","repostId":"1182036516","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182036516","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624892087,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182036516?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超5%创新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182036516","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.\n\n","content":"<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.</p><p><blockquote>有报道称三大芯片制造商支持收购Arm，英伟达股价上涨逾5%，创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05201fd147f1f824ea42bb1d0bcac789\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Three major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support&nbsp;Nvidia‘s&nbsp;proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，三大芯片制造商已出面表示，他们支持英伟达收购英国芯片设计公司Arm的提议。</blockquote></p><p> Last September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from&nbsp;SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.</p><p><blockquote>去年9月，英伟达（股票代码：NVDA）宣布以400亿美元现金和股票从软银集团（SFTBY）手中收购Arm，这笔交易将使软银成为英伟达的最大投资者。鉴于Arm作为芯片行业微处理器设计领先供应商的地位，该交易吸引了监管机构和其他芯片公司的广泛审查。几乎所有的智能手机都使用基于Arm设计的处理器。</blockquote></p><p> But the U.K.’s&nbsp;<i>Sunday Times</i>&nbsp;over the weekend&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based&nbsp;MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.</p><p><blockquote>但英国的<i>星期日泰晤士报</i>周末有报道称，Arm的三个重要客户——博通(AVGO)、Marvell(MRVL)和台湾联发科(2454.TW)——已批准该交易。记者无法立即联系到任何相关公司置评。</blockquote></p><p> Citi analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师Atif Malk周日在一份研究报告中写道，该报告是拟议交易向前迈出的一大步。他认为，鉴于英伟达公开承诺加大对Arm英国业务的投资，英国可能会批准此次合并。但他仍然看到了相当大的障碍，尤其是在中国。</blockquote></p><p> “With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中写道：“随着美国继续积极反对中国在科技竞赛中获胜，我们认为中国不太可能支持一项可能导致他们失去Arm准入权的交易。”“如果英伟达找到一种方法，将Arm中国子公司保留为一个独立实体，而无法访问任何[图形处理器或人工智能]IP，那么就有办法获得美国和中国监管机构的批准。”</blockquote></p><p> Malik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.</p><p><blockquote>马利克说，他认为获得批准的道路仍然狭窄。他现在认为获得批准的可能性为30%，高于之前估计的10%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超5%创新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超5%创新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 22:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.</p><p><blockquote>有报道称三大芯片制造商支持收购Arm，英伟达股价上涨逾5%，创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05201fd147f1f824ea42bb1d0bcac789\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Three major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support&nbsp;Nvidia‘s&nbsp;proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，三大芯片制造商已出面表示，他们支持英伟达收购英国芯片设计公司Arm的提议。</blockquote></p><p> Last September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from&nbsp;SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.</p><p><blockquote>去年9月，英伟达（股票代码：NVDA）宣布以400亿美元现金和股票从软银集团（SFTBY）手中收购Arm，这笔交易将使软银成为英伟达的最大投资者。鉴于Arm作为芯片行业微处理器设计领先供应商的地位，该交易吸引了监管机构和其他芯片公司的广泛审查。几乎所有的智能手机都使用基于Arm设计的处理器。</blockquote></p><p> But the U.K.’s&nbsp;<i>Sunday Times</i>&nbsp;over the weekend&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based&nbsp;MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.</p><p><blockquote>但英国的<i>星期日泰晤士报</i>周末有报道称，Arm的三个重要客户——博通(AVGO)、Marvell(MRVL)和台湾联发科(2454.TW)——已批准该交易。记者无法立即联系到任何相关公司置评。</blockquote></p><p> Citi analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师Atif Malk周日在一份研究报告中写道，该报告是拟议交易向前迈出的一大步。他认为，鉴于英伟达公开承诺加大对Arm英国业务的投资，英国可能会批准此次合并。但他仍然看到了相当大的障碍，尤其是在中国。</blockquote></p><p> “With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中写道：“随着美国继续积极反对中国在科技竞赛中获胜，我们认为中国不太可能支持一项可能导致他们失去Arm准入权的交易。”“如果英伟达找到一种方法，将Arm中国子公司保留为一个独立实体，而无法访问任何[图形处理器或人工智能]IP，那么就有办法获得美国和中国监管机构的批准。”</blockquote></p><p> Malik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.</p><p><blockquote>马利克说，他认为获得批准的道路仍然狭窄。他现在认为获得批准的可能性为30%，高于之前估计的10%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182036516","content_text":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.\n\nThree major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support Nvidia‘s proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.\nLast September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.\nBut the U.K.’s Sunday Times over the weekend reported that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.\nCiti analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.\n“With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”\nMalik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189173871,"gmtCreate":1623249574793,"gmtModify":1634035346018,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good stuff","listText":"Good stuff","text":"Good stuff","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e73b3256210ae306656de2ce953d6e","width":"1080","height":"3056"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189173871","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}